Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/27/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
627 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.|
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SE CO PLAINS TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF LOW
CIGS UP THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN
MORNING. MOST OF THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY E OF KLHX...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THEN IT WAS
SAT MORNING. HAVE ALLUDED TO FEW020 CIGS IN THE KPUB TAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRATUS MOVING UP THE
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
532 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCTD PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER REGIONWIDE WITH
HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
QUITE MILD IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER NDFD FCST COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SRLY TO ERLY FLOW
OVER THE SE CO PLAINS TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF LOW CIGS
UP THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN MORNING.
MOST OF THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY E OF KLHX...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT
SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THEN IT WAS SAT MORNING.
HAVE ALLUDED TO FEW020 CIGS INTHE KPUB TAF TO ACCOUNT FOR A LOW
PROBABILITY OF SOME STRATUS MOVING UP THE ARKANSAS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NOW FOR
WEST AND EAST COASTS. ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORE SO
AROUND HIGH TIDE, WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.
LESS HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED INLAND, SUCH THAT MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR OR FAR WESTERN SUBURBS. WITH WEAK WIND PROFILE STILL IN
PLACE, AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, HRRR SHOWS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AND
BEACHES INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS PROCESS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE
EARLIER THOUGH THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE MEAN WIND/STORM MOTION THERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING MOVEMENT.
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE A NOTABLE
MIDLEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S RAOB. MODEL SOUNDING
FORECASTED AFTERNOON CAPE ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AS PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FL
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT, EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
DEEPER, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PERHAPS A SMALLER CHC OF ACTIVITY BLEEDING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THAN TODAY. INSTABILITY IS NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT WITH SIMILAR H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS TO TODAY.
IF MIDLEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS, THAT
COULD RESTRICT ACTIVITY AGAIN. PWATS THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 2" AND DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
EASTERLY FLOW TRIES TO BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER, ALTHOUGH
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS HAVING
PROBLEMS EXERTING INFLUENCE, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH
STUCK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. H5 TEMP PERHAPS WARMS ABOVE
-6C. FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERIOR,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WEST COAST ALSO.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT CONTINUES WEAKER. NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR 5 DAY OUTLOOK AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY CONTINUES
ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AFTER IT CROSSES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
COLUMN, BECOMING MORE SSE AT THE SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THUS,
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH AN H5 RIDGE STRETCHING
FURTHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THIS WEEKEND, H5 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH RATHER UNFAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEL/BLENDED POPS MAY BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVOLVING AT ALL LEVELS, THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
WE WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAR
EAST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS TOWARDS OUR
GULF COAST REGION, ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE POSSIBLY HAS THE LOW
STAYING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX/LA EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPENS UP
AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY MITIGATE A WIND FIELD WHICH
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS FOCUSED THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST PER THE DEEPER ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. SURFACE WINDS
MAY VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 77 89 / 30 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 50 40 40
NAPLES 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS POCATELLO ID
831 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STILL HOLDING STRONG ACROSS THE
REGION WITH TROUGH THROUGH PACNW AND ALONG WEST COAST. SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THIS EVENING PROGGED TO REACH
SE IDAHO BY MORNING. RAP/NAM AND TO LESSER EXTENT HRRR STILL
PICKING UP ON POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY/AROUND SUNRISE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE LEFT WEAK POPS DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CORNER WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAM AND SHORTWAVE
TRAJECTORY INTERSECT OVERNIGHT. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY IN THIS TYPE OF FEATURE BUT MODELS CONSISTENT
AND PERSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. BETTER
CHANCES EXIST SUN AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME MIXING ALONG WYOMING
BORDER AS SHORTWAVE PASSES BY. REMAINDER OF FCST IN GOOD SHAPE AND
UNCHANGED THIS EVENING. DMH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE
SNAKE PLAIN GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A
WEAK SURFACE FRONT PASSING THROUGH MONTANA. WINDS WILL DECREASE
QUICKLY WITH SUN SET THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A TRAIL
OF MOIST AIR ACROSS NEVADA WITH A MINOR EMBEDDED WAVE APPROACHING
WENDOVER AREA. NOT MUCH TO SEE IN RADAR YET...BUT DECIDED TO MENTION
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING IN THE
CARIBOU HIGHLANDS. SOME OF THAT UNSTABLE AIR WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL AND CARIBOU HIGHLANDS ON SUNDAY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM. SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER SUNDAY SHOULD
HELP LIMIT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ABOUT 4 TO 6 DEGREES OVER TODAY.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THIS AREA WITH SOME UNSTABLE MOIST AIR
MOSTLY OVER THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS TO SUPPORT AN AFTERNOON SHOWER.
FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE PLAIN...AT LITTLE MORE
CLEARING THAT WILL LEAD TO NIGHTTIME LOWS A BIT COOLER. MODELS
CONTINUE TO BRING A DISTURBANCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
LATEST RUNS ARE DRIER...WITH LESS RAIN POTENTIAL. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL TO THE 70S. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE PASSES...MOSTLY HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE LATEST GFS MODEL BRINGS A RATHER DRY LOW THROUGH DURING
THAT TIME...BUT IT MAY BE LIMITED TO THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION. THEREFORE
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY DRY FOR NOW. RS
AVIATION...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA WILL DIE THIS EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN IDAHO. WE DID HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS EARLIER...BUT SO FAR NOTHING ELSE HAS POPPED BACK UP
ELSEWHERE. WE STILL VCSH IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL
TAF SITES JUST IN CASE SOMETHING DOES REDEVELOP. THE MODELS ARE
HOLDING ONTO SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THEY ARE ALSO
PERSISTENT WITH SOME SHOWERS OR STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN HIGHLANDS. AT SOME POINT...WE MAY NEED TO ADD VCSH OR VCTS
BACK INTO THE TAFS FOR KBYI...KPIH AND KIDA. KSUN SHOULD BE OUT OF
THAT THREAT AFTER THIS EVENING. KEYES
FIRE WEATHER...WE ARE GOING TO SEE TEMPERATURES DROPPING SOME MORE
BUT QUICKLY LEVELING OFF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK.
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL IN TURN BE A BIT HIGHER WITH SOME SPOTS
STILL HOVERING AROUND 15 PERCENT BUT LESS WIDESPREAD. THROUGH
MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT AT PRODUCING SOME SHOWERS AND A
FEW DAYTIME STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. THE
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH IS REALLY GOING TO DEVELOP AS TODAY THERE
SHOULD BE SHOWERS THERE ACCORDING THE FORECAST MODELS...BUT SO FAR
NOTHING AS OF EARLY AFTERNOON. WE ARE KEEPING COVERAGE TO
ISOLATED/LOW END SCATTERED FOR BOTH DAYS. WE AREN`T EXPECTING MUCH
RAINFALL AT THIS POINT. THE MODELS STILL AREN`T QUITE THERE WITH A
HIGH CONFIDENCE SOLUTION FOR THE NEXT LOW MOVING IN FOR
MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THEY ARE GETTING SLOWLY CLOSER. THE GFS IS STILL
QUICKER AND WEAKER THAN THE ECMWF. THE DIFFERENCE MEANS THAT THE GFS
CLEARS OUT BY LATE THURSDAY AND THE ECMWF IS 12-24 HOURS SLOWER.
KEYES
&&
.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
417 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS ARE SHIFTING SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
UPPER RIDGING TO THE WEST AND AND UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW
SHOWERS STILL REMAIN AS OF 3 AM OVER FAR WESTERN IOWA AND MAY HAVE
VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION CLIPPING THE DENISON TO ATLANTIC AREAS
THROUGH 7 AM. DRIER AIR WILL SHIFT IN FROM THE EAST. THIS DRIER AIR
WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW 600 MB OR 15 KFT. ABOVE THIS LAYER THERE IS
EASTERLY FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC MAKING ITS WAY TO THE MIDWEST AND
THIS WILL KEEP MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
THOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE EXPECTED. HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS TRYING TO
SUGGEST LIGHT PRECIPITATION OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE
BIGGEST PUSH OF DRY AIR THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AND A
INCREASINGLY DEEP DRY LAYER...THE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION IS VERY LOW THOUGH POSSIBLE A FEW SPRINKLES COULD
OCCUR.
THERMAL PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN ON THURSDAY AND THIS WILL
YIELD TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A BIT BELOW THURSDAYS HIGHS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST HALF. READINGS WILL BE WARMER OVER THE NORTHWEST COMPARED
TO THURSDAY WITH A LEAST A FEW PERIODS OF SUN EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 411 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A QUIET WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS ON TAP FOR CENTRAL
IOWA. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
THIS WEEKEND...
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM...00Z FRI MODELS
INITIALIZING WELL WITH BAND OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS EXTENDING
FROM IOWA INTO EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
UNDER-DOING CLOUD COVER. THESE CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER LOW
DESCRIBED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION. AS THIS LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BLANKET THE DMX
CWA THROUGH 12Z SAT WHICH WILL HINDER DENSE FOG CHANCES.
THUS...HAVE HELD FOG COVERAGE TO PATCHY...NOTING THAT FOG COVERAGE
MAY NEED TO BE TRIMMED IN FRIDAY UPDATE. SUNSHINE EXPECTED SUNDAY
AS SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT WINDS OUT. THERMAL PROFILE A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ON SUNDAY THAN SATURDAY. BUT WITH THE INCREASED
SUNSHINE...ENDED UP LEANING PERSISTENCE FROM SAT PLUS A DEGREE OR
TWO.
MONDAY...
MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY GOOD ENOUGH TO YIELD AT LEAST
MDT CONFIDENCE IN FEATURING A BOUNDARY TO IMPACT IOWA. MODELS
CONVERGING ON SOLN OF PLACING THIS BOUNDARY NEAR IA/MN/SD BORDER AT
12Z MON. AT 12Z MON...BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE VERY MOISTURE-STARVED
AS GULF CLOSED AND NO MOISTURE TRANSPORT MECHANISMS PRESENT. 700MB
QG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BECOMES NON-EXISTENT. THUS HAVE LEFT POPS
OUT AS THIS BOUNDARY PROPAGATES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH IOWA.
TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY LOOKS TO LINGER ACROSS OUR CWA. WORTH
NOTING THAT THE GULF DOES OPEN BACK UP SLIGHTLY DURING THIS TIME.
ADDITIONALLY...MODELS DIALED IN ON PLACING A WELL-PRONOUNCED
UPPER HIGH CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA. THIS HIGH IS
PLACED IN SUCH A LOCATION THAT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD BE
TRANSPORTED UP FROM THE SW CONUS INTO IA...A FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN
PRESENT IN SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENTS THIS SUMMER...INCLUDING
THE ONE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. WITH THE SLIGHT OPENING OF THE
GULF...THE 00Z FRI GFS IS KICKING OUT PWATS IN THE 1.5 INCH
RANGE...WHICH IS APPROACHING THE +1 TO +2 STD DEV RANGE. GOOD NEWS
IS BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND 25-30KT LLJ LOOKS TO BE CONFINEDTO
KS/NE. THUS...LIKELIHOOD OF HEAVY RAIN EVENT APPEARS TO BE LOW.
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...IF THIS
SYNOPTIC SETUP SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO IA...THERE COULD BE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN IN THE DMX CWA. AS FCST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES...POPS WILL LIKELY END UP BEING INCREASED FOR THIS TIME
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
OLD LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TAKING LAST LOBE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN MN AND
SHRA OVER WESTERN IA SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. HRRR REDEVELOPS SOME -SHRA NEAR KMCW BETWEEN 12-17Z BUT
FOR NOW HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY THIN BY 00Z SAT./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
FAIR HANDLE ON TRACK OF LOW...ACCURATELY DEPICTING SHIFT NORTH TODAY
BEFORE THE CURRENT SOUTHERN PUSH. AS LOW PULLS SOUTH...DRY AIR IS
EXPECTED TO WORK IN AT LOW AND MID LEVELS WHICH WILL HELP TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION TRENDS LIMITED TO THE EARLY PERIOD IN THE WEST. HAVE
KEPT THUNDER MENTION ONLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN DECREASING
INSTABILITY IN THE EVENING AND CURRENT LACK OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
SCATTERED.
TEMPERATURES WARMED A BIT ABOVE GOING TODAY IN THE EAST WITH BREAKS
IN CLOUDS. THEREFORE...WITH CLOUDS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT...HAVE BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS A FEW DEGREES.
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST. THE UPPER LOW WILL
STILL BE MIGRATING SOUTH DUE TO THE FLOW OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO
THE WEST AND WILL SLIP SW IA. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO
CONTEND WITH EARLY FRIDAY BUT OVERALL...FRIDAY WILL BE A MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND DRY DAY. THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS VERY NICE WITH A DRY
AND WARM FORECAST CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
THE COLD FRONT SLATED FOR TUESDAY TIME FRAME HAS BETTER AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS NOW THOUGHT DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN AS TO HOW
FAR THE FRONT WILL GET ON TUESDAY. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR DO NOT
LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO WE MAY SEE MORE OF A SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER SCENARIO AND BOTH MODELS ARE HINTING AT A MORE
SPOTTY AND LIGHT QPF. FOR WEDNESDAY THE MODELS STILL DIVERGE WITH
THE GFS DRY AND THE EURO STILL HINTING AT A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST. I KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT BUT PULLED POPS OUT OF THE EAST ON
THURSDAY WITH EVEN GREATER MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
OLD LOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT
TAKING LAST LOBE OF SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN IA INTO SOUTHERN MN AND
SHRA OVER WESTERN IA SOUTH OF THE AREA AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
WEAKENS. HRRR REDEVELOPS SOME -SHRA NEAR KMCW BETWEEN 12-17Z BUT
FOR NOW HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON REDEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE VFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT ENE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AS CLOUDS
EVENTUALLY THIN BY 00Z SAT./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
147 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH RULING OUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT
REINFORCING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXCELLENT ON
FRIDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS...SO A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
23Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR...COULD BE A FEW HOURS SOONER. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 11KTS. AFTER 05Z
STRATUS WITH VLIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY IN IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEARLY THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE. VIS
MAY RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY BY 15Z THEN VFR AFTER 17Z BUT CIGS WILL
KEEP TERMINAL IN THE IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 02Z
BEFORE STRATUS/FOG MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST BRINGING
IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17Z. AFTER 17Z VIS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
BUT CIGS MAY ONLY RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN
STARTING ON MONDAY WITH A RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PLAINS AND A TROUGH POSITIONED OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE TRI STATE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY...SO EXPECTING DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT TREND OF INCONSISTENCY OVER
THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND DGEX MODELS DEPICT A TROUGH SWEEPING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WHICH TRANSLATES TO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE
GENERATED AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY
WEATHER. OF THE PAST RUNS...THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH LATCHING ONTO THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE PATTERN AMPLIFYING
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. BECAUSE OF THE CONSISTENCY OF THE ECMWF...THE
DECISION WAS MADE TO REMOVE THE CONSENSUS POPS AND HEDGE MORE
TOWARDS THE DRY ECMWF FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE VERY DIFFERENT IN REGARDS TO WAVE
POSITIONS AND STRENGTH. AS A RESULT...CONSENSUS BLENDS ARE FAIRLY
UNRELIABLE WITH THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE IN THE SOLUTIONS. AT THIS
POINT ONLY BASED ON PAST CONSISTENCY...THE DECISION WAS MADE TO
FOLLOW THE ECMWF AND GO WITH THE DRY FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO LOW CONSIDERING THAT
A FORECAST RIDGE IN PLACE BY THE ECMWF MAY BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...HOWEVER
DECIDED TO LEAVE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS IS DUE TO THE VALUES OF
BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
KGLD...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY
23Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR...COULD BE A FEW HOURS SOONER. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 11KTS. AFTER 05Z
STRATUS WITH VLIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITY IN IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THROUGH
NEARLY THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME DRIZZLE ALSO POSSIBLE. VIS
MAY RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY BY 15Z THEN VFR AFTER 17Z BUT CIGS WILL
KEEP TERMINAL IN THE IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY.
KMCK...MVFR CIGS EXPECTED FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH ROUGHLY 02Z
BEFORE STRATUS/FOG MOVE IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST BRINGING
IFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 17Z. AFTER 17Z VIS EXPECTED TO BE VFR
BUT CIGS MAY ONLY RISE TO MVFR CATEGORY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
SATURATE MORE EFFECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
START TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW CIGS GET WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING...WILL
GO WITH LOWER VALUES...THOUGH...SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE ONCE
INSOLATION IS NO LONGER AN ASSET. LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE BULK
OF THE AVIATION PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL
DAWN SATURDAY WITH SUNRISE AND SOME RESULTANT STRONGER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...DOWNSLOPE...FLOW. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT SITES LIKE SYM AND SJS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
345 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CONUS. THE JET AND MAIN FLOW REMAIN DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE THE CANADIAN BORDER. MEANWHILE...OVER THE SOUTHEAST
A CLOSED TROPICAL LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK WEST THROUGH THE TN VALLEY
AND THEN NORTH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY BEFORE FINALLY GETTING CAUGHT
UP IN THE FLOW AND SWEPT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY. DURING THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AS A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO
DESCEND ON THE EASTERN CONUS. THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
BY THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO A
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL FEATURE
THE MEANDERING TROPICAL LOW DRIFTING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY.
INSTABILITY THOUGH WILL BE AT A MINIMUM AS SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE AS A
FRONT WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE THE
BEST INSTABILITY MOVING THROUGH BUT KEPT IN MOSTLY SHOWERS FOR NOW.
OVERALL...THE SUPERBLEND RESULTS AND TREND POINT TO SOME SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY
THUNDER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE STARTING TO
SATURATE MORE EFFECTIVELY. AS A RESULT...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
START TO BUILD DOWN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW LOW CIGS GET WITH THE RAIN THIS EVENING...WILL
GO WITH LOWER VALUES...THOUGH...SIMILAR TO GUIDANCE ONCE
INSOLATION IS NO LONGER AN ASSET. LIGHT...TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE...RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THROUGHOUT THE BULK
OF THE AVIATION PERIOD. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO IMPROVE MUCH UNTIL
DAWN SATURDAY WITH SUNRISE AND SOME RESULTANT STRONGER EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...DOWNSLOPE...FLOW. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO EAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 15 KTS POSSIBLE AT SITES LIKE SYM AND SJS
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE EVENING.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
136 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE JUST MOVED INTO HARLAN COUNTY. STILL
SOME PRETTY DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 40S IN SEVERAL AREAS. 00Z NAM/RAP BUFR SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW
A REAL SATURATION OF THE LOW LEVELS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. WITH
THIS IN MIND...OPTED TO SLOW DOWN THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE BETTER
POPS TO THE NORTHWEST. STILL A SOLID AREA OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO
THE SOUTHEAST...AND EVENTUALLY THIS WILL WEAR DOWN THE DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS...BUT IT MAY BE A SLOW PROCESS.
REGARDLESS...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. SOUNDINGS REALLY SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY...SO WILL GO CATEGORICAL AFTER DAYBREAK
FOR ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST OMEGA
REMAIN IN THE WARM PART OF THE CLOUD...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO TAKE
ON MORE OF A DRIZZLE...BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO MEASURE EVERYWHERE
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1125 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED...BUT NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED ATTM. SHOWERS HAVE MEASURED AS FAR WEST
AS THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR IN TN NEAR KTRI. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT A BAND OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
TOWARD DAWN.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 850 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
A BROAD MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SPIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THIS IS BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE
WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES AND INTO THE
APPALACHIANS. RADAR RETURNS ARE GRADUALLY SPREADING ACROSS THE
BLUE RIDGE AND INTO THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS AND NE TN MOUNTAINS. MOST
OF THE MEASURABLE RAIN SO FAR HAS BEEN EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN
NC. MEANWHILE...A SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
US COAST WHILE AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA LEADING TO EASTERLY FLOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA
BORDER AND NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN MOST LOCATIONS. RECENT CONSSHORT
AND HRRR GUIDANCE POINTS TOWARD A BIT SLOWER ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS
INTO EASTERN KY AND RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT THIS. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN SPRINKLES AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS AND HAS A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SUFFICIENTLY FOR
SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE RAIN TO SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST KY TOWARD
DAWN.
HOURLY POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY WITH HOURLY DEWPOINTS
AND TEMPERATURES FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME VERY LIMITED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR EAST...AMPLE SUNSHINE DOMINATED EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY HELPING TO SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
PLACES. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MIX
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...MEANWHILE...HAVE BEEN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW...IN THE MIDST OF GENERAL HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NATION...SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL
CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. PLENTY OF ENERGY WILL SPIN
THROUGH THE HEART OF THIS LOW AS IT IMPACT OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE NAM12 IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND
THICKEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING BEFORE
DAWN IN THE FAR EAST. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BUILD
QUICKLY WEST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE CWA COVERED
BY MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY WITH A DRIFT TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED FOR THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. POCKETS OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN GENERAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN
INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE UNIFORM WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS EVENING WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE A
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOP BEFORE THE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND USED FROM THAT POINT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING DEFUSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MODELS BECOME MUCH
MORE DIVERGENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...MEAN WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY ON SAT
WITH CHANCES WAINING THROUGH THE DAY. NOW STUCK CLOSER TO BLEND
OVERALL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY BE
A BIT OVERDONE WITH GFS SEEMING TO BE MORE EXAGGERATE PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD COMPARED WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN. PERHAPS THE
BETTER DAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE AS WE MOVE INTO WED WITH
SOME TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS. THEN TRENDING DRIER OVERALL AS
WE MOVE INTO THURS. HAVE STUCK WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAGER
INSTABILITY SIGNALS...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES IF ANY OF THUNDER
WOULD BE MID WEEK. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEARER NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE LIKELY GOING
TO TAKE SOME TIME TO SATURATE...AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE ONSET OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS AFTERNOON...UNTIL THIS EVENING. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME FAIRLY LOW CIGS THIS EVENING DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST
RAIN CHANCES. LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY BE SEEN THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...STARTING AROUND DAYBREAK. THE RAIN MAY HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON FARTHER NORTH TOWARDS KSYM. CIGS MAY IMPROVE LATE
TONIGHT...AS SOUTHEAST FLOW STRENGTHENS HELPING TO DISSIPATE THE
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
929 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE
LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES. MOISTURE FROM THE LOW WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED
WEEKEND WITH RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THE LOW WILL
SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST EARLY IN THE WEEK AND A
COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
CHALLENGING OVERNIGHT FORECAST AS AREAS OF RAIN GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 DISSIPATE DUE TO DRY LOW LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE AS
INDICATED BY 00Z KIAD SOUNDING BETWEEN H85 AND H7. AT THE WFO HERE
ADJACENT TO DULLES...WE`VE MEASURED 0.02" STARTING AROUND 2330Z AS
SPRINKLES BEFORE STARTING TO MEASURE AFTER 00Z.
KLWX WSR-88D AT 0115Z SHOWS AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF WASH DC. THE LATEST HRRR 1 KM
REFLECTIVITY FIELD HAS THIS REPRESENTED WELL...AND EXPECTING THIS
AREA TO CONTINUE TO MOVE N/NW AND CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE. THE MORE
ABUNDANT RAIN SHOWING ON RADAR ORIENTED ALONG I-64 IN CENTRAL
VIRGINIA IS PROGGED BY THE HRRR TO MOVE N/NW TOO...BASICALLY
KEEPING THE BALT/WASH METRO AREAS DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIODS. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEYS AND POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS WILL SEE THIS RAIN OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED POPS IN
THIS REGION.
TEMPS AROUND THE REGION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY OR ONLY DROP A
FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT H85 CREATES WAA AS
H85 TEMPS AROUND +14C EAST OF DELMARVA ARE BEING ADVECTED INTO
RELATIVELY COOLER SFC AIR FLOWING DOWN FROM THE NEW ENGLAND
SURFACE HIGH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL HIGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE DISSIPATED BY
THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE LEFTOVER SHORTWAVE ENERGY
NEARBY ALONG WITH WARM AND MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING MARINE AIR.
THEREFORE...MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAME AREAS THAT HAVE
BEEN RECEIVING IT LATELY...CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO THE POTOMAC
HIGHLANDS. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MAY TRIGGER A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS THE WASHINGTON AND BALTIMORE AREAS INTO NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MARYLAND SUNDAY MORNING...BUT ANY RAIN WILL BE LIGHT DUE
TO THE BLOCKING HIGH NEARBY. OTHERWISE...MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTH AND WEST INTO OUR AREA.
THEREFORE...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT THERE MAY BE A
BETTER CHANCE FOR OVERRUNNING ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS MOISTURE
FINALLY SPREADS FARTHER NORTH AROUND THE DEPARTING HIGH. GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DIVERGE AS TO HOW QUICKLY THE MOISTURE WILL SPREAD
NORTH AND HOW MUCH OVERRUNNING WILL TAKE PLACE. TOOK A BLEND OF
THE GUIDANCE WHICH ALLOWS FOR CHANCE POPS REGARDING
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED QUITE A WAYS FROM NEW
ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SERN STATES. LOW
CONFIDENCE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DUE TO CONTINUED NEBULOUS FORCING
AND GREAT MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE PATTERN. SEEMS
THAT A SFC INVERTED TROUGH UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MAY PROVIDE
LIFT. SHOULD ELY FLOW CONTINUE TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING WOULD ALSO BE
PRESENT. CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN THROUGH THE DAY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA DUE
TO LACK OF CONFIDENCE. WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING...ANY PRECIP
LOOKS TO BE LIGHT...TENTH INCH OR LESS. MOSTLY CLOUDY OR OVERCAST
WITH MAX TEMPS LOW TO MID 70S. UPR 70S WHERE ANY SUN BREAKS OUT FOR
EXTENDED PERIODS.
MONDAY NIGHT...LESS SYNOPTIC FORCING AS INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS TO
THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...WITH ANY
THING THAT FALLS AGAIN LIGHT. MIN TEMPS LOW TO MID 60S UNDER MOSTLY
CLOUDS SKIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEAN TROUGH WILL PERSIST ALONG THE EAST COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF
RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUDINESS. HOWEVER MODELS/ENSEMBLES DIFFER ON
THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL
IMPULSES. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WILL SUPPLY LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR AT TIMES...RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY TO THE AREAL EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
UNCERTAINTY ONLY INCREASES AS ONE PROGRESSES FURTHER IN TIME.
OVERALL...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN ARE
EXPECTED RIGHT INTO NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND IS
ACTUALLY LIKELY AT SOME POINT DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BUT
NARROWING DOWN THE EXACT TIME PERIOD AT THIS JUNCTURE IS A CHALLENGE.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...RAIN AND SUBVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED FOR
KCHO DURING THIS TIME. AN MVFR DECK OF LOW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS. IFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH PERIODS OF RAIN FOR KCHO
DURING THIS TIME.
A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN MAY MAKE IT INTO THE REST OF THE TERMINALS
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR LEVELS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MORE LOW CLOUDS AND RAINFALL MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
CIGS MON/MON NIGHT MOSTLY VFR/MVFR WITH CONTINUED LOW CHANCES FOR
RAIN. WIND LIGHTER...WITH ONSHORE FLOW LIKELY BACKING TO NLY OR NWLY
MONDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES LOWER MONDAY NIGHT.
SUB-VFR PSBL IN LOW CLOUDS/-RA FROM TIME TO TIME TUE-
WED. GENERALLY NELY FLOW AROUND 10 KT...THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS W/ EXACT DIRECTION AND SPEED.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS DURING THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KNOTS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC RIVER NEAR DRUM POINT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A GALE WARNING AT THIS POINT.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY WITH SCA LIKELY FOR MOST WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY WITH ELY GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT. WINDS EASE MONDAY
NIGHT...SCA LIKELY CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE
TURNING NLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN A
WEAKENING GRADIENT TUESDAY AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE/A COLD FRONT PASSES
OVER THE WATERS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH...THE GRADIENT
INCREASES AGAIN WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL ANOMALIES THIS EVENING ARE STILL RUNNING ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW. LATEST 18Z
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PRESSURE GRADIENT MAY RELAX SLIGHTLY OVER NEXT
24 HRS.
HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED EARLIER.
BASED UPON EXAMINATION OF WATER LEVEL TRENDS AND THE 18Z WATER LEVEL
GUIDANCE....DECIDED TO CONVERT THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS FOR
ANNE ARRUNDEL AND CALVERT COUNTIES...TO ADVISORIES. AT ANNAPOLIS
THE LATEST FORECAST IS ALL BELOW MODERATE FLOOD LEVELS.
WILL KEEP WARNINGS UP FOR ST. MARY`S PORTIONS OF THE LOWER TIDAL
POTOMAC AND CHESAPEAKE BAY WATERS...AS WELL AS FOR WASHINGTON DC.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SUN INTO SUN NIGHT...AND CURRENT EXPIRATION
TIMES FOR EARLY MON LOOK OK. BUT WITH EASING OF GRADIENT...WATER
LEVELS MIGHT FALL BELOW ADVISORIES LEVELS SUN NIGHT VS MON
MORNING.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR DCZ001.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ011-013.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ014-017-018.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ053-054.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ535-538.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ530>534-
536>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ535.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BJL
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...BAJ/BJL
LONG TERM...DFH
AVIATION...BAJ/BJL/DFH
MARINE...BAJ/BJL/DFH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SMZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
420 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS THE LAST BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY HAVING DISSIPATED. WITH CONTINUED DRYING EXPECTED AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST FILLING AND SINKING SOUTH...WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE
CHANCE FOR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
LOCATION IN OUR AREA FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MILLE LACS LAKE
AREA THROUGH ST CLOUD. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF AGREE THAT FOG THAT WILL
ENGULF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL TRY AND EXPAND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS AREA. BEING LATE SEPTEMBER...IT TAKES A BIT MORE TIME TO BURN
OFF THE FOG AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF A LITTLE
MORE QUICKLY TOMORROW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TIGHTENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS PUSHING EAST
THROUGH MONTANA. WITH A MIXING HEIGHT NEAR 850MB...HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE HEAT WAVE /FOR LATE SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS/ THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES TO END SEPTEMBER. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE BEGINNING TO
LOOK BETTER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
RAINFALL CHANCES THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE
MORE QUESTIONABLE.
THE HEAT WILL BE ON RIGHT OUT THE GATE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE
SIT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE MPX
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STILL...MIX-DOWN HIGHS TO H85 WITH A SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC LAYER CORRECTION OFF THE ECMWF YIELDED HIGHS BETWEEN
81 AND 84 ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS...SO MIXED THESE MIX DOWN TEMPS INTO THE COOLER
CONSENSUS GRIDS TO GET HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. MONDAY WILL HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE THE GRADIENT IN HIGHS MONDAY...WITH CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY KEEPING CENTRAL MN IN THE
60S...WHILE PLACES FROM FAIRMONT TO EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT TOPPING OUT AT 80 ONE MORE TIME DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
AS FOR THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL START INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALL POST FRONTAL WITHIN A
ZONE OF FGEN...SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT GREAT...WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL GET OUR FIRST HEALTHY CANADIAN HIGH SINCE
THE 11TH OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE
30S/40S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
AROUND +4C WILL KEEP HIGHS TUE/WED AROUND WHERE OUR LOWS WERE THIS
MORNING /UPPER 50S TO MID 60S/. THESE COOLER TEMPS TO END SEPTEMBER
WILL ENSURE THAT THE SEPTEMBER OF 1897 STAYS ATOP THE LIST OF
WARMEST SEPTEMBERS OF ALL TIME IN THE TWIN CITIES...THOUGH THIS
SEPTEMBER WILL STILL SAFELY STAY IN THE TOP 5 WARMEST SEPTEMBERS ON
RECORD.
AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DRAMATICALLY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THE PROBLEM COMES WITH THE DEGREE WITH WHICH HOW FAR
NORTH THE MAIN POLAR WRLIES RETREAT INTO CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE
WESTERLIES CLEAR UP INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WHICH RESULTS IN
NUMEROUS HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSING OR EVEN COMPLETING CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP A LITTLE MORE FLOW
FATHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS CHAOTIC PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT YOU SEE WITH THE ECMWF. AT ANY RATE...NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
LEFT OVER CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO ERODE AS THE MAIN LOW FILLS IN
NEAR NEBRASKA AND SAGS SOUTHWARD. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST...WITH
AN WEST TO EAST ORIENTED AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN
FOR THIS PERIOD IS POSSIBLE FOG TOMORROW MORNING. INDICATED SOME
FOG AT ALL TAF SITES...MAINLY EXPECT MVFR OR VFR VIS...BUT WILL
SEE IF DEW POINTS REMAIN ELEVATED THIS AFTERNOON OR NOT. IF THEY
DO...HIGHER CROSSOVER TEMPS COULD MEAN IFR OR LIFR POTENTIAL FOG
FOR SOME SPOTS...MAINLY EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.
KMSP...LOOK FOR FOG EARLY TOMORROW...AGAIN MOST LIKELY MVFR OR
VFR. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS VFR WITH EAST WINDS TURNING SOUTH
TOMORROW AND INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. S WIND 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. N WIND 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAK AS SEEN WITH
KDLH VWP ONLY SHOWING WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT AT 925MB/850MB.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS
LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS
REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE
DENSE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
AS THE WEAK HIGH DEPARTS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A COLD
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT
THE CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT MOST AREAS SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS AND BETTER MIXING. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE LAST TO SEE THE
CLOUDS/FOG LIFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIXTIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
SEE HIGHS FROM 70 TO 76.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS/GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND PCPN...AND GENERALLY FASTER THAN THEIR EARLIER
RUNS. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO CUT BACK ON THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER FORECAST FOR THIS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHES THE NW FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS BUFR AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...HAVING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND SPEED IN THE MIXING LAYER
IN BOTH MODELS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE THIS TO NEARLY 30 MPH WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AND
PROBABLY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE...DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WHICH WILL
NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER...BUT THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE LITTLE
IF NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND...RESULTING
IN SUNNY SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN JUST A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S. THIS LATEST
FORECAST HAS MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 OVER THE
SOUTH...BUT MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THIS SEVERAL DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING COLDER...AND MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST MUCH MORE
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD
FACE THE THREAT OF FROST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THERE IS VERY CHALLENGING AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LIFR/IFR CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN AND THAT IS LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLH.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST TO ESE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS FLOW CREATED FOG AND WIDESPREAD OVC LOW
CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT AND WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ERODING
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS THE MOST PERSISTENT AT KDLH BECAUSE OF THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN OF
THE FLOW LIFTING UP THE HILL. MORE INLAND AREAS ARE BEGINNING TO
LIFT AND SCATTER WITH A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FOR KDLH THAN OTHER TERMINALS.
MAY NEED TO KEEP DELAYING THE IMPROVEMENT FORECAST FOR KDLH.
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SKEPTICAL OF SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AT
KDLH TODAY...BUT THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT BACK
TO IFR/MVFR BY THE MIDDLE OR LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WHILE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER
MAY BE LIMITED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HILLSIDE OF THE DULUTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON....SUNSET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FOG AND
LIFR/IFR CLOUD COVER SPREADING BACK INLAND TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT MORE QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL STILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO LIFT FROM DULUTH
BECAUSE OF THE WIND FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KDLH RETURNING
TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD TAKE AS LONG AS 17Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 52 71 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
INL 52 74 58 75 / 0 0 0 40
BRD 54 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
SATURDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
FOG HAS LIFTED FOR MOST AREAS...BUT DENSE FOG REMAINED IN SPOTS
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS. KDYT HAS RECENTLY REPORTED 1SM IN FOG...KSUW
HAS RISEN TO 3/4SM AND KCOQ TO 1 1/2SM. WE THINK THERE WILL BE
CONTINUED SLOW IMPROVEMENT...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN AREAS
OF FOG THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND OVER THE HILL IN DULUTH/PROCTOR. WE WILL LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY EXPIRE BUT MAY NEED TO ISSUE ANOTHER ONE THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE FOR TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VISIBILITIES REMAIN AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
MILE AS OF 1045 AM. WE WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR THE TWIN PORTS REGION.
MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED BOTH IN AREA AND TIME. WE
ADDED COASTAL LAKE COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY AND EXTENDED IT TO 11
AM. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG AROUND LONGER THAN
AREAS FURTHER INLAND. WE EXPECT THE DENSE FOG IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES...AITKIN...HINCKLEY AREAS TO LIFT SOME IN THE NEXT HOUR SO
DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THOSE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...AND THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AS A LINGERING SFC LOW OVER
WRN IA SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MORNING FOG
LIFTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON
BAY AND AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE INTO MN/WI WILL KEEP THE E/NE
WINDS GOING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ENHANCE A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NRN MN. THIS GRADIENT WILL INDUCE A STIFF SOUTH WIND OVER
NE MN SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND AWAY FROM
LS. HOWEVER WITH THE LIGHT EAST WINDS OVER THE
LAKE...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN
IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND AS CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHES...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. THE IMPACT FROM LAKE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LESS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS STRONG
WAA CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. SOME PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT WILL PROBABLY ONLY
REACH THE FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE MOST QPF WITH THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHLAND BY MID
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING A GOOD DEAL OF QPF TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF SHOWS BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS A WELL
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN GENERAL NW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS FAIRLY LOW DURING
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S ON SUNDAY...TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THERE IS VERY CHALLENGING AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LIFR/IFR CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN AND THAT IS LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLH.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST TO ESE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS FLOW CREATED FOG AND WIDESPREAD OVC LOW
CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT AND WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ERODING
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS THE MOST PERSISTENT AT KDLH BECAUSE OF THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN OF
THE FLOW LIFTING UP THE HILL. MORE INLAND AREAS ARE BEGINNING TO
LIFT AND SCATTER WITH A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FOR KDLH THAN OTHER TERMINALS.
MAY NEED TO KEEP DELAYING THE IMPROVEMENT FORECAST FOR KDLH.
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SKEPTICAL OF SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AT
KDLH TODAY...BUT THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT BACK
TO IFR/MVFR BY THE MIDDLE OR LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WHILE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER
MAY BE LIMITED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HILLSIDE OF THE DULUTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON....SUNSET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FOG AND
LIFR/IFR CLOUD COVER SPREADING BACK INLAND TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT MORE QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL STILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO LIFT FROM DULUTH
BECAUSE OF THE WIND FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KDLH RETURNING
TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD TAKE AS LONG AS 17Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 51 73 55 / 10 0 0 0
INL 69 52 74 57 / 10 0 0 10
BRD 74 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 74 51 75 55 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 67 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1048 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOG HAS BEEN PERSISTENT THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY AT THE HEAD
OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE VISIBILITIES REMAIN AT OR BELOW A QUARTER
MILE AS OF 1045 AM. WE WILL EXTEND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR THE TWIN PORTS REGION.
MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED BOTH IN AREA AND TIME. WE
ADDED COASTAL LAKE COUNTY TO THE ADVISORY AND EXTENDED IT TO 11
AM. A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD KEEP DENSE FOG AROUND LONGER THAN
AREAS FURTHER INLAND. WE EXPECT THE DENSE FOG IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES...AITKIN...HINCKLEY AREAS TO LIFT SOME IN THE NEXT HOUR SO
DID NOT EXTEND THE ADVISORY TO THOSE LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS OF
FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS...AND THE
PERSISTENT EAST WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE CLOUDS AROUND
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING.
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AS A LINGERING SFC LOW OVER
WRN IA SLIDES TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BEGINS
TO BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH MORNING FOG
LIFTING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...BUT WITH SKIES
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. THE SFC HIGH OVER HUDSON
BAY AND AN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE INTO MN/WI WILL KEEP THE E/NE
WINDS GOING THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NEXT TROUGH WILL SLIDE
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES ON SATURDAY AND ENHANCE A PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS NRN MN. THIS GRADIENT WILL INDUCE A STIFF SOUTH WIND OVER
NE MN SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH THE SFC RIDGE OVER THE WRN
GREAT LAKES EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE MID 70S INLAND AWAY FROM
LS. HOWEVER WITH THE LIGHT EAST WINDS OVER THE
LAKE...TEMPERATURES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN
IN THE 60S. WINDS WILL BECOME NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND AS CLOUD COVER
DIMINISHES...TEMPERATURES MAY FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. THE IMPACT FROM LAKE WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LESS AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS STRONG
WAA CONTINUES IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. SOME PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...BUT WILL PROBABLY ONLY
REACH THE FAR NORTH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL
THEN PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. THE GFS IS INDICATING THE MOST QPF WITH THE EVENT...ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY STILL BE IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY.
MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHLAND BY MID
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. THE GFS IS TRYING TO BRING A GOOD DEAL OF QPF TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS
MUCH DIFFERENT DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THE ECMWF SHOWS BUILDING
HEIGHTS AND DRY WEATHER FOR THURSDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS A WELL
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN GENERAL NW FLOW. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS FAIRLY LOW DURING
THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
70S ON SUNDAY...TO THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 30S TO 40S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THERE IS VERY CHALLENGING AND PERSISTENT FOG AND LIFR/IFR CLOUD
COVER ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN AND THAT IS LINGERING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KDLH.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA AS OF EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT EAST TO ESE FLOW
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THIS FLOW CREATED FOG AND WIDESPREAD OVC LOW
CLOUD COVER LAST NIGHT AND WHICH IS SLOWLY LIFTING AND ERODING
THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS THE MOST PERSISTENT AT KDLH BECAUSE OF THE
ADDED MOISTURE FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE EFFECT OF THE TERRAIN OF
THE FLOW LIFTING UP THE HILL. MORE INLAND AREAS ARE BEGINNING TO
LIFT AND SCATTER WITH A TRANSITION TO MVFR/VFR. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FOR KDLH THAN OTHER TERMINALS.
MAY NEED TO KEEP DELAYING THE IMPROVEMENT FORECAST FOR KDLH.
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SKEPTICAL OF SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT AT
KDLH TODAY...BUT THE RAP13 AND HRRR STILL SUGGEST IMPROVEMENT BACK
TO IFR/MVFR BY THE MIDDLE OR LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THAT
IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT LIVED. WHILE THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER
MAY BE LIMITED TO LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE HILLSIDE OF THE DULUTH
LATE THIS AFTERNOON....SUNSET WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE FOG AND
LIFR/IFR CLOUD COVER SPREADING BACK INLAND TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIFT MORE QUICKLY SATURDAY
MORNING. IT WILL STILL TAKE THE LONGEST TO LIFT FROM DULUTH
BECAUSE OF THE WIND FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KDLH RETURNING
TO VFR BY 15Z...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE IT COULD TAKE AS LONG AS 17Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 63 51 73 55 / 10 0 0 0
INL 69 52 74 57 / 10 0 0 10
BRD 74 53 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 74 51 75 55 / 10 0 0 0
ASX 67 51 77 54 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
828 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
THE COLD FRONT/OUTFLOW IS ALMOST TO BILLINGS AT 8 PM. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING TO 20 MPH. ADJUSTED WINDS BASED ON
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN THE OBS AND THE LAMP GUIDANCE. ALSO BEHIND
THE FRONT SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RETURNS HAVE DEVELOPED...SO NUDGED
THE POPS JUST A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO YELLOWSTONE AND STILLWATER
COUNTIES. REIMER
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR
SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE
BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER SO KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 MPH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS IT HEADS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS TOWARDS SHERIDAN.
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE. AGAIN
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT CHANCES INCREASE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
CONTINUED COOLING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE EASTERLIES SPREAD
WESTWARD AND A BIT OF MIDLEVEL WARMING PROVIDES WEAK LIFT. NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE MOISTURE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT
SOUTHEAST MONTANA STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN AND HOPEFULLY RETURNS OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEASONABLE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATES. WARM 850MB TEMPS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
WARM UP VERY WELL WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY BUT
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MILES CITY. NOT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNTIL
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OFF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A MUCH
COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY AS GOOD FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE
EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE INTERACTION OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
WHILE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN WANTED TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE.
GIVEN THAT THIS WAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE LAST FEW
RUNS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP
OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
ONE SHOULD NOTE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO SHIFTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ARE LIKELY.
DOBBS
&&
.AVIATION...
EXPECT 15-25 KT GUSTS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT FROM NW TO
SE THIS EVENING...WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN
EASTERN AREAS FROM KSHR TO KMLS AND KBHK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN HIGH-BASED AND VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. IT WILL
BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH LESS WIND. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/072 048/070 046/076 053/079 052/073 048/070 047/063
21/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W 32/W 11/B
LVM 047/073 042/071 043/075 046/077 046/069 043/070 042/065
21/B 11/B 11/U 12/W 33/W 21/B 22/W
HDN 052/074 046/072 045/077 049/082 049/076 045/071 044/067
21/B 21/B 11/B 12/W 34/W 42/W 11/B
MLS 057/074 047/069 045/077 050/082 051/075 048/070 045/065
21/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 34/W 43/T 12/W
4BQ 056/076 049/071 047/077 050/082 052/076 048/071 046/067
00/B 22/T 22/W 21/B 34/W 43/T 12/W
BHK 054/073 047/066 044/071 048/079 050/073 047/067 045/063
00/B 32/T 21/B 21/B 34/W 43/T 12/W
SHR 052/076 046/073 045/076 046/080 049/074 044/070 040/066
00/B 22/T 21/B 22/W 23/W 32/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
231 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR DRENCHING RAINS THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 19Z. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF AND
WEAKENS. LATEST RAP INDICATES LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM FORECAST.
GENERAL RIDGING THEN COVERS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY
EVENING. LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BEYOND THIS TIME THE FORECAST
BECOMES LESS CONFIDENT AS GFS AND EURO SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN SOLUTIONS. EURO BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. SMALL POPS COVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
SFC OBS THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ARE SHOWING CONDITIONS ARE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVER ERN NEB IN RESPONSE TO UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE/PCPN ACTIVITY SHIFTING WEST. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AT
KOFK/KLNK TO GIVE WAY TO VFR IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. KOMA HAS
ALREADY IMPROVED TO VFR. OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT AVN ISSUES
ANTICIPATED THE REST OF THE FCST PD.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1209 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED OVER NERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NORTHERN MOST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS JUST WEST OF NORFOLK NEBRASKA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW...HAVE TRACKED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 281
FROM SPENCER TO BARTLETT THIS MORNING...AND HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTN. FURTHER WEST OF THE LOW....A BROAD SHIELD OF
CLOUDINESS EXTENDED WEST TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A MIXTURE OF
LOW TO MID CLOUDS PRESENT. OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS...THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO BURN OFF WITH CLEARING NOTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NORFOLK NEBRASKA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN KS. WEST OF THE
TROUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT FROM WEST OF THE LOW TO THE
PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WERE LIGHTER FROM THE NORTH
OR WEST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 65 AT AINSWORTH TO
77 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ARE PRECIPITATION AND FOG. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND MAY
RETROGRADE A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEPT ISO/SCT
POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS BANDS OF WEAK RAIN ROTATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOWERED QPF
AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS BEING RECORDED AS DRIZZLE BY 20Z.
THE TRICKY PART IS HOW FAR WEST THE THICK STRATUS WILL STRETCH THIS
EVENING. THE PANHANDLE HAS STAYED CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
BREAKS IN THE COVER HAVE COME AND GONE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THINKING THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND WESTWARD BY 25/06Z AS THE SURFACE LOW TREKS SOUTHWEST. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 5KFT SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IN
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ABOUT 2KFT THICK FROM
KLBF TO KVTN...AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN THE PANHANDLE. THE NAM ALSO
INDICATES SOME LIFT AND SATURATION AT THE 300K SURFACE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO INTRODUCED DRIZZLE BEGINNING
09Z FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE RUC AND GFS WERE AGREEING WITH
SATURATION IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...BUT THINKING THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MORE FOG WHILE EASTERN HALF HAS MORE DRIZZLE AND STRATUS.
FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...SO UPGRADED TO AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND
HIGHWAY 83. SURFACE WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
FOG FARTHER WEST...AS SPEEDS STAY NEAR 10 MPH WHERE DRIZZLE IS
MENTIONED. SOME FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ON
COVERAGE DUE TO WIND.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WINDS TURN EAST AND ADVECT IN MOIST
AIR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS NEARLY SATURATED...SO
ANY BIT OF LIFT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT GENERALLY DID
NOT GO THAT LOW. BUMPED UP A DEGREE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A LARGE GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER FAIR
SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
UNDER THE STRATUS IN THE EAST...LIMITED HIGHS TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE
MID RANGE IS FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR
FRIDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WEAK FORCING IS PRESENT TO
FACILITATE LOW POPS IN THESE AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
MOIST LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
THINKING HERE IS MORE OF A DRIZZLE SETUP FRIDAY
EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITH DRYING ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT NOTED IN THE
SATURATED LOW LAYER. AFTER LATE EVENING...THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ALONG WITH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ATTM...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR FOG IS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. EAST OF THIS ROUTE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
INDICATIVE OF STRATUS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SOMEWHAT DRIER. ON
SATURDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL FILL IN OVER SRN KS AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER NERN WYOMING. INCREASED SRLY WINDS...WILL
ALLOW CLOUDINESS TO DISPERSE BY MIDDAY SAT ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH DECENT BL
MOISTURE PRESENT SAT NIGHT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ATTM
WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF WIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS MUCH WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WEST...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A 90+
TEMP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OR FAR SW SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
FCST H85 TEMPS OF 25 TO 29C.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A PACIFIC COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
OVER SRN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSRAS CONTINUED. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF BUILDS A
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDS/THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRY
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z GFS THIS MORNING HAS A LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. INHERITED FCST HAD
A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDS-THUS. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF PCPN TO MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
STRATUS CONTINUES TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STORM SYSTEM. THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN THE REST OF TONIGHT...AND EXPECT
MVFR CEILINGS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD IFR BY SUNRISE. SOME DRYING IS
EXPECTED IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FRIDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AND EXPECT CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND IMPROVE THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY. EXPECTING MOST AREAS TO BE VFR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON FRIDAY. SOME PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE THOUGH
MID MORNING FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
UPDATED PRODUCTS A FEW TIMES TO INCREASE RAIN AMOUNTS. THINK THERE
COULD BE SOME POCKETS OF UP TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY IN WESTERN IOWA. RECENT RAP MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS THAT
POTENTIAL.
CLOSED MID TROPOSPHERIC LOW SHOULD DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY FOCUS HEAVIEST AND LONGEST
DURATION RAIN OVER WESTERN IOWA AND EXTREME EASTERN NEBRASKA NEAR
THE MISSOURI RIVER. 00Z COAX SOUNDING WAS QUITE MOIST...WITH 1.74
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH. SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS SO FAR AND
THIS MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. ALREADY ISSUED ONE FLOOD ADVISORY
PRODUCT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU YEP 24 2015
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA AT MID AFTERNOON...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS NOTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY HAS REMAINED ON
THE LOW SIDE TODAY...ALTHOUGH SAC HAS INDICATED ABOUT 500 J/KG
OF ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LOW WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AND COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO FILL OVERNIGHT AND DRIFT SOUTH...WITH SPOTTY
SHOWERS LINGERING YET THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
OPEN AND SHIFT SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT.
ONCE THE RAIN FINALLY ENDS...SHOULD SEE CLEARING SKIES FRIDAY
NIGHT...WHICH COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH
WARMING TEMPS BACK ABOVE NORMAL AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT THU YEP 24 2015
UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN ANOTHER WARM AND MILD DAY MONDAY. THE NEXT WAVE MOVING
ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER SHOULD HELP PUSH A COOL FRONT INTO
THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WHICH BRINGS A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEYOND THEN...CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AS MODELS DIVERGE
ON THE SOLUTIONS. ECMWF REMAINS DRY...BUT GFS INDICATES ANOTHER
WEAK WAVE MOVING ONTO THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR CEILINGS CONTINUE UNDER THE MID LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...MAINLY AT KOFK. CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE TOWARD MID MORNING FRIDAY THERE. FOR KOMA AND KLNK...
PERIODS OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. PCPN COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE.
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FOG COULD DVLP
FRIDAY EVENING...BUT LATER TAFS WILL ADDRESS THAT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEWALD
LONG TERM...DEWALD
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1049 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1039 PM EDT SATURDAY...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS.
AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE
COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE
TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO
THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST
LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING
TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.
STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS
WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z
(2AM).
STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST
VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
`DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE
HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE
SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW-
LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S.
MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z
GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE
AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 08Z-13Z AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT SLK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT
7-9 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VTZ003-004-007-010.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
330 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION...
BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WILL PRODUCE WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EXTENDING FROM
UPSTATE SC INTO SWRN NC WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM NW GA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TN WITH LOWERING DPVA OVER CENTRAL NC.
ASSOCIATED POTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SW TO
NE BUT REMAIN ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NE CWA. WITH A STEADY INFLUX OF
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR (INCLUDING A
STOUT 925-850 MB JETLET FROM THE ESE) PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT AND
PW VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE NE CWA... ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH/NE OF A LINE FROM INT
TO RDU TO GSB. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS TO THE SW OF HERE...
WITH CONTINUED 295K-305K MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND HIGH MOISTURE
INFLUX BUT WANING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NSSL-WRF / HRRR / 3KM
NAMRR ALL SUPPORT THIS TREND... BOOSTING CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN THE NE CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH... BUT IN GENERAL THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT... ALBEIT
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD
TREND TO MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WRN/SRN CWA AS THE
AIR DRIES OUT ABOVE -10C... NOTED BY THE RELATIVE DRY SLOT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOW OVER SC AND WRN NC. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... AND EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE JUST A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN CURRENT VALUES... FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE UPPER 60S NW TO SE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL TN INTO WRN KY WHILE
FILLING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TX AND NE MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S AND
SE TO A MORE ANTICYCLONIC WEAK FLOW FROM THE WSW... WITH DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE BOTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. MODELS STILL DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL PW... FROM 1.5" NW TO OVER
2.0" EAST OF I95... AND MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES BUT TO A BIT LESSER
DEGREE (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL)... SO THE THREAT OF PATCHY RAIN
SHOULD PERSIST. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND SNAPSHOT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN TODAY HOWEVER... MEANING THAT WHILE MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN... IT WON`T BE AS STEADY OR WITH QUITE THE
INTENSITY AS WE`VE GOT TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER COASTAL NC
NEAR THE PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGH... AND WELL TO OUR NW OVER THE
SW VA MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN UPLIFT WILL COME INTO PLAY... BUT
OTHERWISE CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NE TO LIKELY SW TO START THE
DAY... FOLLOWED BY A DOWNWARD TREND TO LIKELY NE AND GOOD CHANCE SW
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WE`LL STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...
RESISTENT TO MIXING IN THE VERTICAL (LACK OF BOTH CONVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE) AND HORIZONTALLY (DUE TO THE IN SITU STABLE POOL BEING
LOCKED IN OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS BY TERRAIN... THE COASTAL
TROUGH... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT STIRRING). AS SUCH...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY
A LUCKY FEW (PROBABLY IN THE SE CWA) HAVING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SUNSHINE). EXPECT HIGHS MINIMALLY HIGHER THAN TODAY... FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S NW TO SE. LOWS SAT NIGHT 60-68 WITH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FINALLY ARRIVING ON MONDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT
SHIFTS WEST AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION...THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINS MOIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH PW VALUES STILL AT
OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND
SHIFTING NORTH AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN AN ARC FROM THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN NORTHWEST INTO THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SEVERAL
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD WHERE A WEDGE AIRMASS REMAINS
ESTABLISHED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST. MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN
THE 60S.
A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH CENTRAL NC BEING
LOCATED IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER. THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK GOOD.
THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LATE
WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE
THURSDAY. HPC GUIDANCE POPS HAVE TRENDED UP NOTABLY AND WE WILL
FOLLOW THAT TREND WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAYS FORECAST APPEARS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEW OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
THE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DON`T SUPPORT THAT SOLUTION. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE. -
BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM FRIDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR (IFR CIGS AND MVFR TO OCNLY IFR VSBYS)
DOMINATING THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24 HR TAF VALID PERIOD AT ALL FORECAST
LOCATIONS. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH OVER
SE CANADA WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH SAT... WHILE A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH HOLDS NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
AND CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE A DEEP ONSHORE-
DIRECTED ATLANTIC-SOURCE FLOW WITH THICK LOW-BASED CLOUDS AND
PERIODS OF MVFR TO IFR VSBYS MAINLY WITHIN RAIN BANDS. SUB-VFR CIGS
ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD AREAWIDE THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH THE
RISK FOR IFR VSBYS WILL BE HIGHEST AT INT/GSO/RDU/RWI REST OF TODAY
INTO THIS EVENING... AND WILL BE HIGHEST AT FAY LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING. PERIODIC LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES
(SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK AT FAY/RWI/RDU COMPARED TO INT/GSO) 00Z-14Z
WITH LOW LEVEL JETTING AT 1500-2000 FT AGL FROM THE ENE AT AROUND 35-
40 KTS THIS EVENING LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE SAT.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z SAT: RAIN CHANCES AND COVERAGE -- AND THUS THE
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR VSBYS -- WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT/SUN... BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST AT RDU/RWI WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER COVERAGE AT INT/GSO/FAY. THE
CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CIGS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH AT LEAST
SUN MORNING WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AT ALL
SITES. IMPROVEMENT TO MAINLY MVFR AND POTENTIALLY TO LOW-END VFR IS
EXPECTED BY SUN AFTERNOON. BUT IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SHALLOW STRATUS
AND FOG SHOULD RETURN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
BE IN A RELATIVE LULL FROM LATE SUN THROUGH MON NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES
MAY RETURN TUE INTO WED WITH SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
LOWER THAN USUAL DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES... SO STAY TUNED. -GIH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE`RE STILL GETTING RAINFALL REPORTS IN... BUT BY RADAR
ESTIMATION... WE`VE HAD ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF ACROSS CENTRAL NC... ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAFFIC SNARLS AND
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... BUT NO NOTABLE RIVER OR
CREEK FLOODING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH... MAINLY
IN THE NRN CWA... BUT OVERALL ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE WET ROADS AND PONDING OF WATER HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN A TRAVEL ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
HYDROLOGY...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
131 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY ONSHORE INTO COASTAL GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED WELL TO
THE NORTH...WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WET CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTH LATE IN THE WEEKEND BRINGING A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...BUT LOW PRESSURE RISING OUT OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO COULD BRING MORE RAIN IN THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...RAIN IS ONGOING OVER THE CAPE FEAR REGION
BUT MOST OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS SEEING A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AS A DRY SLOT MOVES IN. KEEPING CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST THOUGH AS ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RAIN WILL RESUME LATER
THIS MORNING. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
SYNOPTICALLY LITTLE HAS CHANGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...HOWEVER
ON THE MESOSCALE SIDE THERE HAS BEEN A RADICAL RECONFIGURATION OF
PRECIPITATION ECHOES OBSERVED ON RADAR. A HUGE DRY SLOT HAS OPENED
UP FROM MYRTLE BEACH SOUTHWARD FOR HUNDREDS OF MILES OVER THE
OCEAN. THE 00Z RUN OF THE HRRR (NCEP OPERATIONAL RUN...NOT THE
EXPERIMENTAL VERSION) SHOWS THIS QUITE WELL AND IS THE BASIS FOR
THIS UPDATE. POPS WILL REMAIN HIGH...70-100 PERCENT...BUT RAINFALL
AMOUNT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED BACK TO ACCOUNT FOR SPOTTIER
SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS. ONCE WE GET TO 5-6 AM A MORE
SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
REGION. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LINING THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM. CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR THIS FRONT IS VERY NEAR THE LOCATION
OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
OSCILLATED FROM SE TO NE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE LOW
IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AT THE SURFACE...IT TILTS WESTWARD WITH
HEIGHT AND AT 500 MB IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. DEEP SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGHOUT THE 850-500 MB LAYER IS BRINGING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES UP TO THE CAROLINA
COAST. FOR LATE SEPTEMBER THIS EXCEEDS THE 90TH PERCENTILE.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW BOTH MOVE A LITTLE
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT THE DEEP FLOW OF MOISTURE OFFSHORE SHOULD
BECOME ORIENTED DIRECTLY ACROSS NE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE NORTH
CAROLINA. AS WINDS BECOME PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT...ISENTROPIC
LIFT BECOMES IMPRESSIVE ALMOST REGARDLESS OF WHICH THETA LEVEL YOU
LOOK AT GIVEN THE GREAT DEPTH OF MOISTURE. FORECAST POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED TO A SOLID 100 PERCENT. IN TERMS OF PRECIP
AMOUNTS...THROUGH 8 AM FRIDAY AREAL AVERAGE FORECASTS RANGE FROM
ABOUT 0.60 INCHES ALONG THE SANTEE RIVER NEAR GEORGETOWN TO 1.50
INCHES ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR COAST. THERE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IN SPOTS WITH LOCALIZED 2-3 INCH TOTALS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. RAINFALL DEPARTURES OVER THE PAST THREE WEEKS
ARE QUITE LARGE AND WE CAN PROBABLY TAKE 2-3 INCHES OF RAIN
WITHOUT PROBLEM OUTSIDE OF TYPICAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE PROBLEM
AREAS.
ENOUGH MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
THAT EVAPORATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY.
DEWPOINTS ARE NOW IN THE MID 60S EVEN IN DARLINGTON AND
BENNETTSVILLE...WITH 70S AT THE NC COAST. AS THE RAIN BEGINS IN
EARNEST ACROSS THE INTERIOR PEE DEE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S. IN
FACT LOWS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S MOST AREAS...AROUND 70 ON THE
COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...CHIEF WEATHER CAPTION THIS PERIOD...`RAIN`.
DEEP TROPOSPHERIC ONSHORE WIND TRAJECTORIES ALREADY UNDERWAY AND
POINTING LANDWARD UP THROUGH 30 THOUSAND FEET PER THE LATEST KLTX
VAD WIND PROFILE DATA. THE MOST RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED BLENDED
PRECIPITABLE-WATER TRENDS SHOW VALUES OF 53MM-57MM/2.08-2.24
INCHES POISED JUST OFF THE BEACHES AND BLEEDING INTO THE SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS OFFSHORE
WHICH IS DEPICTED WELL IN AN EARLIER 1433Z ASCAT POLAR-ORBITER
SWEEP EXTENDING SOUTH TO NORTH FROM OFFSHORE JAX FL TO E OF CAPE
LOOKOUT...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TOWARD LAND INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL
AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION WHILE UPPER WINDS GUIDE CELLS AND
DEBRIS RAINS ONSHORE.
NO FLOOD WATCH IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME SINCE IT APPEARS BREAKS IN
SIGNIFICANT RAIN-RATES WILL TRANSPIRE BETWEEN THE APPRECIABLE
RAIN EPISODES...THE EPISODES NAMELY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY. SEVERAL IMPULSES WILL SUSTAIN RAIN CHANCES LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT IT LOOKS LIKE LOCALLY...THE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH
COULD STEM THE POTENTIAL ONSLAUGHT OF DEEP CONVECTIVE RAINS.
MINIMUMS THIS PERIOD NEAR NORMAL MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S CLOSER TO
THE SEA...WHEREAS MAXIMUMS WILL RUN 4-6 DEGREES F BELOW NORMAL IN
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...THE LONG TERM STILL LOOKS CONSIDERABLY
CLOUDY AND UNSETTLED ALTHOUGH A WASHOUT IS NOT FORECAST.
A VERY SLOW MOVING AND WEAK ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE CENTERED
NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL N AND E OF THE CENTER. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE WEDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUE AND WED. A 500
MB LOW WILL BE CUT OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH WEAK RIDGING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...AN EXTENSION OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE SUN THROUGH TUE.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING N THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
MAY BE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TUE-THU. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM SHOULD BE
STREAMING NORTH MID AND LATE WEEK ALTHOUGH TOO EARLY TO SAY HOW
WIDESPREAD THE RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. WILL
SHOW LOWEST POPS EARLY IN THE WEEK AND THEN TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER AS
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER THAN NORMAL AND DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF LOW PRESSURE IN GULF
OF MEXICO.
MOST OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY A COOL NORTHERLY FLOW AND
THIS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL TEND TO SHRINK THE
DIURNAL RANGE. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL AND LOWS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...THE MAIN BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP HAS WAVED TO THE
NORTH BUT EXPECT SOME RAIN WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION TO REFORM
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME BRIEF BOUTS OF HEAVY PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...HOWEVER EXPECT
PREDOMINATELY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN UNTIL THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE
EAST...PROBABLY NOT UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL BE
THE BEST TIME FOR THE HEAVIER CONVECTION. WE PROBABLY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH SOLAR INSOLATION...HOWEVER IF THE SUN DOES COME OUT THIS WILL
ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM FRIDAY...OBS SHOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MARGINAL AT
BEST AND AM KEEPING IT IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 AM ONLY FOR SOME WIND
GUSTS OF AROUND 25 KTS. EXPECT WE WILL CANCEL ADVISORY...OR LET IT
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 4 AM. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
AFTER CHATTING WITH NWS METEOROLOGISTS IN MOREHEAD CITY AND
CHARLESTON WE HAVE AGREED TO EXPAND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...AND EXTEND IT IN TIME
UNTIL 4 AM FRIDAY MORNING. WIND GUSTS AT MYRTLE BEACH HAVE
RECENTLY INCREASED TO 27 KNOTS AT SPRINGMAID PIER. THIS SURGE OF
STRONGER WINDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER 3-4 HOURS BEFORE
DIMINISHING. GUSTS CONTINUE TO REACH 25 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH WITH WINDS NEARLY 30 KNOTS OUT AT THE BUOY 25 MILES
OFFSHORE. AS WE SAW LAST NIGHT...THE CONFIGURATION OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING STRONGER WINDS UP AGAINST THE COAST RATHER
THAN FARTHER OFFSHORE. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 70 MILES EAST OF SAVANNAH ALONG A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT LINING THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM. CLOSER TO CAPE FEAR THIS FRONT IS VERY NEAR THE LOCATION
OF THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY WHERE WIND DIRECTIONS HAVE
OSCILLATED FROM SE TO NE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. BETWEEN THE
FRONT AND THE COAST THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS BECOME PINCHED
TIGHTLY AND WIND GUSTS ARE IN THE APPROACHING 30 KT BETWEEN CAPE
FEAR AND CAPE LOOKOUT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE SE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. RECENTLY
OBSERVED WIND GUSTS INCLUDE 27 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH...28
KNOTS AT THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH CORMP BUOY. FOR THE SC
COASTAL WATERS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS WEAKER AND WINDS ARE MORE
IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHAT WIND
SPEEDS WILL DO AS THE OFFSHORE FRONT APPROACHES OVERNIGHT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 5.2 FEET AT THE HARBOR BUOY SOUTH
OF SOUTHPORT...AND ARE STILL 6.6 FEET AT FRYING PAN. THESE WAVE
HEIGHTS SHOULD PEAK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH WAVES
DIMINISHING BELOW 6 FEET BY MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM/ FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT IDEAL AND MODERATELY BUMPY AT
TIMES...NO ADVISORIES ARE PLANNED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD IN A 3-5 FOOT RANGE AND WINDS AROUND 15 KT. AN
EXERCISE CAUTION STATEMENT MAY BE NEEDED SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
INCREASES NE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. ISOLATED TSTMS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON THE WATERS BOTH DAYS AND MARINERS SHOULD CHECK RADAR
TRENDS BEFORE HEADING OUT. DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS WILL BE MIXED
BETWEEN LONGER PERIOD ESE WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 10-11 SECONDS AND E
WAVES 2-3 FEET EVERY 7-8 SECONDS...BOTH THESE WAVE GROUPS TO CO-
MINGLE WITH A MODERATE NE CHOP.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM THURSDAY...A MUCH MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT...AS
COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS...SHOULD BE IN PLACE SUNDAY AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING PROGRESSIVELY N OF THE WATERS. THE WEDGE
WILL BUILD STRONGLY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TIGHTER
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINING LARGELY W OF THE WATERS. HIGHEST WIND
SPEEDS...UP TO 10 TO 15 KT SUN...SHOULD BE 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A NE OR ENE WIND DIRECTION WILL
DOMINATE. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT ALTHOUGH SPOTTY 4 FT SEAS
ACROSS THE OUTERMOST NORTHERN WATERS ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RJD
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...MJC/REK/RJD/TRA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
952 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR THIS UPDATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT
SEP 26 2015
WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RESULT HAVE
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. STILL EXPECTING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES A LITTLE LATER THAN FORECAST. SLOWED TIMING
OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT QPF CHANCES SUNDAY AND TEMPS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND IT WILL BE WARM WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE NW LATE TONIGHT NEAR SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR COLD
FRONT.
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL
BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND +11C...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. WE WILL MAINTAIN
SOME THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH ALL CAM MODELS AND INSTABILITY
FIELDS ARE WEAK. PWATS WILL GET OVER 1 INCH...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
AIRMASS INITIALLY THIS ISN/T VERY DEEP MOISTURE AT ALL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST.
FOR MON NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME CLOUDS THOUGH THAT MAY AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT FROST
HEADLINES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
ON TUE...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP CHANCES. THE GFS/GEM BREAK OUT A BIT
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP TUE NIGHT/WED...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS.
DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER OVER THE AREA...BUT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
HAS BEEN POOR. USING A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SOME POPS...ESPECIALLY
THUR NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE TAFS REFLECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT. KDVL MIGHT SKIRT THE LOWER
CIGS...BUT KGFK AND KTVF WILL LIKELY SEE 2.5-3KFT CIGS PER NAM
GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS NOT AS NEGATIVE...BUT NAM HAS BEEN VERIFYING
BETTER WITH LOW CIGS AS OF LATE. HRRR MODEL ONLY GOES OUT TO
12Z...SO STILL CAN`T SEE THE 12-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE
MOST LIKELY. WILL HAVE MORE INFO FOR 06Z UPDATE. THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE AT KGFK/KTVF/KBJI TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS
RATHER LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
704 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WINDS HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RESULT HAVE
ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. STILL EXPECTING BREEZY
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LATEST MODELS HAVE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES A LITTLE LATER THAN FORECAST. SLOWED TIMING
OF SHOWERS SLIGHTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE LIGHT QPF CHANCES SUNDAY AND TEMPS.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL TODAY.
FOR TONIGHT...WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AND IT WILL BE WARM WITH
TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A FEW SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE NW LATE TONIGHT NEAR SOME MOISTURE CONVERGENCE NEAR COLD
FRONT.
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE WILL
BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE WITH 700MB TEMPS AROUND +11C...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTH NEAR THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET. WE WILL MAINTAIN
SOME THUNDER MENTION...ALTHOUGH ALL CAM MODELS AND INSTABILITY
FIELDS ARE WEAK. PWATS WILL GET OVER 1 INCH...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
AIRMASS INITIALLY THIS ISN/T VERY DEEP MOISTURE AT ALL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS AROUND NORMAL. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE WITH
A DRY FORECAST.
FOR MON NIGHT...SOME PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH
WITH COOL HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE REGION. THERE COULD BE
SOME CLOUDS THOUGH THAT MAY AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS...BUT FROST
HEADLINES ARE A POSSIBILITY.
ON TUE...TEMPS WILL BE AROUND NORMAL ONCE AGAIN WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDING EAST AND RETURN FLOW IN THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL IS LOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH PRECIP CHANCES. THE GFS/GEM BREAK OUT A BIT
OF WARM ADVECTION PRECIP TUE NIGHT/WED...WHILE THE GFS IS DRY. FOR
NOW HAVE KEPT SOME LOW POPS.
DETAILS ARE VERY UNCERTAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO EJECT INTO THE PLAINS. 12Z RUNS OF
THE GFS/ECMWF ARE DRIER OVER THE AREA...BUT RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY
HAS BEEN POOR. USING A MODEL BLEND YIELDS SOME POPS...ESPECIALLY
THUR NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE TAFS REFLECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT...AND SOME MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT. KDVL MIGHT SKIRT THE LOWER
CIGS...BUT KGFK AND KTVF WILL LIKELY SEE 2.5-3KFT CIGS PER NAM
GUIDANCE. THE GFS IS NOT AS NEGATIVE...BUT NAM HAS BEEN VERIFYING
BETTER WITH LOW CIGS AS OF LATE. HRRR MODEL ONLY GOES OUT TO
12Z...SO STILL CAN`T SEE THE 12-23Z TIME FRAME WHEN MVFR CIGS ARE
MOST LIKELY. WILL HAVE MORE INFO FOR 06Z UPDATE. THUNDER IS STILL
POSSIBLE AT KGFK/KTVF/KBJI TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT PROBABILITY IS
RATHER LOW CURRENTLY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE STRATUS IS RAPIDLY BURNING OFF. SHOULD
SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT GFS/NAM DEPICTS
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA INTO SOUTHEAST
SASK. WITH FLOW ALOFT SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THE SHOWERS MOVE
NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE STATE BOUNDARY.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THIS UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN
MORTON COUNTY INCLUDING MANDAN...AND THE AREA EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TO BOTTINEAU COUNTY.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE USED SAT DATA
TO MANUALLY ADJUST SKY CONDITION. STRATUS/FOG KEEPING HOURLY
TEMPS COOL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SHOULD
SLOWLY CATCH UP WITH HIGH FORECAST AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE THROUGH 1115 UTC...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO SIOUX...GRANT...MORTON...OLIVER AND MCLEAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 16 UTC THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER NEBRASKA HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS COMMON FROM WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND EAST OF MINOT/BOTTINEAU IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA
AND JAMESTOWN STATIONS HAVE REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY...AND
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK TO
THE LINTON AND STRASBURG AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND 10AM-11AM...SO WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND HELP MIX THE SURFACE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL TO LOWER 80S
WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...AND MODELS HINT AT RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG TO
THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST SKY COVER A BIT...AND
WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT SET OF MODELS HANDLES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 24/12 UTC NAEFS PERCENTILES DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO NEAR MAXIMUM PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THUS...INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES DECLINE AS THE SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND POSSIBLY THE 50S ARE EXPECTED. MORNING FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL MAINTAIN A DRY
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF AIR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. VFR AT ALL TAF
SITES.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THIS UPDATE TO EXPIRE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN
MORTON COUNTY INCLUDING MANDAN...AND THE AREA EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TO BOTTINEAU COUNTY.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE USED SAT DATA
TO MANUALLY ADJUST SKY CONDITION. STRATUS/FOG KEEPING HOURLY
TEMPS COOL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SHOULD
SLOWLY CATCH UP WITH HIGH FORECAST AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE THROUGH 1115 UTC...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO SIOUX...GRANT...MORTON...OLIVER AND MCLEAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 16 UTC THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER NEBRASKA HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS COMMON FROM WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND EAST OF MINOT/BOTTINEAU IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA
AND JAMESTOWN STATIONS HAVE REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY...AND
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK TO
THE LINTON AND STRASBURG AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND 10AM-11AM...SO WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND HELP MIX THE SURFACE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL TO LOWER 80S
WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...AND MODELS HINT AT RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG TO
THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST SKY COVER A BIT...AND
WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT SET OF MODELS HANDLES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 24/12 UTC NAEFS PERCENTILES DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO NEAR MAXIMUM PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THUS...INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES DECLINE AS THE SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND POSSIBLY THE 50S ARE EXPECTED. MORNING FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AT 6 AM CDT...FOG HAD EXPANDED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1/4SM OR LESS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KBIS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-16Z. KMOT/KDIK/KISN
HAVE FOG IN TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-16Z. BECOMING VFR ALL
TAF SITES AFT 16Z WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL RETURNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
853 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 848 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW DENSE FOG CONTINUES IN
MORTON COUNTY INCLUDING MANDAN...AND THE AREA EAST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH TO BOTTINEAU COUNTY.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 16Z. OTHERWISE USED SAT DATA
TO MANUALLY ADJUST SKY CONDITION. STRATUS/FOG KEEPING HOURLY
TEMPS COOL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. SHOULD
SLOWLY CATCH UP WITH HIGH FORECAST AS CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE THROUGH 1115 UTC...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO SIOUX...GRANT...MORTON...OLIVER AND MCLEAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 16 UTC THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER NEBRASKA HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS COMMON FROM WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND EAST OF MINOT/BOTTINEAU IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA
AND JAMESTOWN STATIONS HAVE REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY...AND
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK TO
THE LINTON AND STRASBURG AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND 10AM-11AM...SO WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND HELP MIX THE SURFACE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL TO LOWER 80S
WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...AND MODELS HINT AT RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG TO
THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST SKY COVER A BIT...AND
WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT SET OF MODELS HANDLES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 24/12 UTC NAEFS PERCENTILES DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO NEAR MAXIMUM PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THUS...INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES DECLINE AS THE SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND POSSIBLY THE 50S ARE EXPECTED. MORNING FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AT 6 AM CDT...FOG HAD EXPANDED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1/4SM OR LESS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KBIS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-16Z. KMOT/KDIK/KISN
HAVE FOG IN TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-16Z. BECOMING VFR ALL
TAF SITES AFT 16Z WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL RETURNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-020>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BASED ON WEBCAMS AND SATELLITE THROUGH 1115 UTC...EXPANDED THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY INTO SIOUX...GRANT...MORTON...OLIVER AND MCLEAN
COUNTIES THROUGH 16 UTC THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER NEBRASKA HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS COMMON FROM WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND EAST OF MINOT/BOTTINEAU IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA
AND JAMESTOWN STATIONS HAVE REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY...AND
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK TO
THE LINTON AND STRASBURG AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND 10AM-11AM...SO WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND HELP MIX THE SURFACE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL TO LOWER 80S
WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...AND MODELS HINT AT RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG TO
THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST SKY COVER A BIT...AND
WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT SET OF MODELS HANDLES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 24/12 UTC NAEFS PERCENTILES DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO NEAR MAXIMUM PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THUS...INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES DECLINE AS THE SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND POSSIBLY THE 50S ARE EXPECTED. MORNING FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AT 6 AM CDT...FOG HAD EXPANDED OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITY 1/4SM OR LESS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT KJMS AND KBIS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-16Z. KMOT/KDIK/KISN
HAVE FOG IN TEMPO GROUPS UNTIL AROUND 15Z-16Z. BECOMING VFR ALL
TAF SITES AFT 16Z WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL RETURNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET
FRIDAY EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-020>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
254 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY...WITH A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW WAS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW OVER NEBRASKA HAD SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WAS COMMON FROM WISCONSIN AND
MINNESOTA INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE SHORT TERM HRRR MODEL CONTINUE TO
INDICATE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXPANDING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER IN SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AND EAST OF MINOT/BOTTINEAU IN THE NORTH CENTRAL. ROLLA
AND JAMESTOWN STATIONS HAVE REPORTED 1/4 MILE VISIBILITY...AND
EXPECT THOSE CONDITIONS TO EXPAND WESTWARD. THUS WILL ISSUE A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM BOTTINEAU TO BISMARCK TO
THE LINTON AND STRASBURG AREAS. THIS INCLUDES THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
AND THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE HRRR INDICATES THAT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD IMPROVE QUICKLY AROUND 10AM-11AM...SO WILL HAVE THE ADVISORY
IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM CDT. SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD INCREASE DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND HELP MIX THE SURFACE WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S CENTRAL TO LOWER 80S
WEST.
SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH...AND MODELS HINT AT RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG TO
THE AREA. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED THE FORECAST SKY COVER A BIT...AND
WILL SEE HOW THE NEXT SET OF MODELS HANDLES THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FIELD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOLING TREND EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 24/12 UTC NAEFS PERCENTILES DEPICT 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE
99TH TO NEAR MAXIMUM PERCENTILES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO OVERTAKE THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THUS...INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE LOWER 90S WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER FOR SATURDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.
THEREAFTER...TEMPERATURES DECLINE AS THE SATURDAY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE
60S...AND POSSIBLY THE 50S ARE EXPECTED. MORNING FROST WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AT MIDNIGHT CDT...FOG WAS RE-DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. VSBY AT
KJMS WAS VARYING FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM. ROLLA WAS VARYING FROM 1/4SM TO
3SM WITH OVC002. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEST. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST...THINK
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FIRST IN THE WEST AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE CENTRAL BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS A HINT OF RETURNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR NDZ004-005-
012-013-022-023-025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1244 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAIN CONCERN THIS UPDATE IS DEVELOPMENT AND SPREAD OF FOG...AND HOW
DENSE IT WILL BECOME WITH TIME OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
LARGEST AREA OF FOG OVER THE SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE BY
AROUND 2 AM...AND ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEFORE SUNRISE. THE LATEST HRRR RUN INDICATES THE
VISIBILITIES WOULD BE VERY LOW - 1/4 MILE OR LESS - WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. THINKING A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE NEEDED SOON...AND WILL BE COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.
FOR NOW WILL ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY REGARDING AREAS OF FOG WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES AND WIND FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST HRRR IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING LOW STRATUS INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. IT DOES BRING SOME LOW STRATUS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 08-10 UTC THEN DISSIPATES. THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS IS ATTRIBUTING TO THE
DISSIPATING STRATUS HERE. STRATUS/FOG DOES EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT TO INCLUDE JAMESTOWN BISMARCK AND
POSSIBLY MINOT...WITH MAX COVERAGE AROUND 13 UTC. WILL UPDATE
CLOUD COVER USING THE LATEST HRRR AS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT. A LIMITING
FACTOR MAY BE A SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH WESTERN CANADA...OVER
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ESPECIALLY WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TURBULENCE IN THE LOWER LEVELS TO INHIBIT
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE WEST. FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE
GOING FORECAST OF AREAS OF FOG ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL HIT LOWER CIGS/VISIBILITIES AT KBIS AND KJMS IN THE
TAF FORECAST.
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE
AND POPULATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BRINGING LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES LOW SLOWLY
SLIDING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN MONTANA. LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH MOIST LOW LEVEL
FLOW...OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY
LATE THIS EVENING WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE AREA.
ON FRIDAY...FOG WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING. OTHERWISE...A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
TEMPERATURES PUSHING ABOVE AVERAGE WITH UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE LOW FORMS AND STARTS TO DEEPEN ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
ROCKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
DRY AND WARM THROUGH SATURDAY AS OUR FLOW ALOFT REMAINS WEAK AND
SOUTHWESTERLY.
JET STREAM MIGRATES SOUTHWARD LATER THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND WILL STEER EMBEDDED MID LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE
LOCAL REGION...GIVING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AS WELL...BUT STILL SEASONAL.
MODELS THEN PORTRAY A STRONG SURFACE HIGH MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION MID-WEEK AND SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AT MIDNIGHT CDT...FOG WAS RE-DEVELOPING OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. VSBY AT
KJMS WAS VARYING FROM 1/2SM TO 2SM. ROLLA WAS VARYING FROM 1/4SM TO
3SM WITH OVC002. FOG SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BRINGING IFR/LIFR CIGS AND
VSBYS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...AND POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE
WEST. WITH AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM WEST TO EAST...THINK
CONDITIONS IMPROVE FIRST IN THE WEST AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE CENTRAL BY MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS A HINT OF RETURNING FOG/LOW CLOUDS AFTER SUNSET FRIDAY
EVENING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
953 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SE. THE QUESTION SILL REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES
THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z. THE RAP LATEST RUN HAS
NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. STILL BELIEVE PRECIP DESERVES
A MENTION BUT WILL DECREASE POPS MORE.
MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A
DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL RUNNING THE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL COME AROUND MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT ANY POINT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND ANY 4 FOOTERS OUT THERE WILL BE
SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE THOUGH IS SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS. THE
HIGH BUILDS IN AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH AND A
DEPARTING LOW UP THE EAST COAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
BE DETERMINED. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WAVES FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TO THE POINT THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY IN
OUR FUTURE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
910 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID
AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SE. THE QUESTION SILL
REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS.
THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z.
THE RAP LATEST RUN HAS NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. STILL
BELIEVE PRECIP DESERVES A MENTION BUT WILL DECREASE POPS MORE.
MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A
DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL RUNNING THE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL COME AROUND MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT ANY POINT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES
BUILDING A BIT AND COULD HOVER CLOSE TO 4 FEET THROUGH 03Z. SO AGAIN
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SINCE IT LOOKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LARGER WAVES FROM THE LONGER
FETCH OF THE WIND BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OVER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
733 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SE. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS
NO MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z THEN A SURGE
OF SCT LIGHT SHRA FOCUSED NNW UP THRU THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA
TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK. THE RAP LATEST RUN NOW SHOWS
NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH BUT
BELIEVE IT DESERVES A MENTION. MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW
LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE
SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STILL RUNNING THE FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS. HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS EASTWARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AND A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION. MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT...BUT REMAIN VFR. WINDS WILL COME AROUND MORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR SUNDAY AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. AT ANY POINT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT
THERE COULD BE A SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE AREA...BUT IT WILL HAVE LITTLE TO NO IMPACT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES
BUILDING A BIT AND COULD HOVER CLOSE TO 4 FEET THROUGH 03Z. SO AGAIN
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SINCE IT LOOKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LARGER WAVES FROM THE LONGER
FETCH OF THE WIND BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OVER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1053 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL WEAKEN AS IT
SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A RESULT...WITH SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS SEEING SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL. SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY
INTO TUE. A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA ON TUESDAY. MAINLY DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL
FOLLOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
NEWEST RUN OF NAM VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVS OF WV/PA AND PUMPS OUT GIANT QPF BEFORE 15Z. SEE NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED YET AND LLJET IS NOT STRONG/SURGING. RAP AND HRRR ALSO
NOT PLAYING ALONG WITH THE 00Z NAM - YET. WILL DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION BUT KEEP HIGH CHC POPS OVER THE SWRN COS THROUGH THE
NIGHT. REST IS ALL GOING AS EXPECTED.
630 PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE ON THE MARCH TOWARD THE LAURELS - BUT THE LLVL/BLYR
AIR IS VERY DRY THERE. DEWPOINTS ARE ONLY IN THE U30S IN KPIT AND
M40S IN KJST AND K2G9 /SOMERSET/. SO THESE SHOWERS SHOULD STRUGGLE
AS THEY MOVE NORTHWARD. WILL HOLD THE LINE WITH SMALL POPS ONLY
IN THE LAURELS.
PREV...
STRONG COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC IS PROVIDING
A PRETTY NICE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. LONG FETCH OF WESTERN
ATLANTIC MOISTURE AROUND THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
INCREASING LLVL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA AND THIS
WILL ONLY INCREASE AS THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WEAR ON.
1 INCH PW AIR EVENTUALLY FEEDS INTO THE LAURELS AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE HIGH CIRCULATION...AND UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THESE AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY MORNING. MIN TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S NORTH...AND LOW TO MID 50S ELSEWHERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BLEND OF LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT AND DETERMINISTIC SOLUTIONS
MAINTAINS CHC OF LGT RAIN ACROSS THE LAURELS/SC MTNS ON SUNDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE A TENTH OR TWO AT THE MOST WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE MARYLAND BORDER WITH GENERALLY NUISANCE AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PA IN THE
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW. A SLIGHTLY COOLER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY AS A RESULT...WITH HIGHS RANGING THROUGH THE 60S NORTH AND
CENTRAL...TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY TO THE FCST IS LACK OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK ON.
WHILE THERE IS AN UPPER LVL LOW NEARBY...NEUTRAL TO SLIGHT
COLD ADVECTION EARLIER FROM THE NE...OFFSET THE STRONG LATE
SEPTEMBER SUN. TEMP OUTSIDE THIS AFT IS 69 DEGREES...WHICH IS
ABOUT NORMAL.
THUS DID NOT MAKE MANY ADJUSTMENTS. DID EDGE POPS UP SOME
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE...AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. DID EDGE
TEMPS UP A LITTLE.
THE NAM IS WETTER AND FASTER WITH THE RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE CWA...MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...WHILE
OTHER MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFS40 ARE MORE LATER SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. EITHER WAY...DID NOT WANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH
POPS...AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.
FOR MID WEEK...LET SOME LOW POPS IN.
FOR LATE WEEK...MAINLY WENT DRY. KEY TO FCST AGAIN IS LARGE
COLD HIGH THAT BUILDS SOUTHWARD FROM EASTERN CANADA. ALSO
WHILE MODELS HAVE A LARGE SPREAD...LOOKS LIKE NORTHERN FLOW
PREVAILS...WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET IS WEAKER.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR DAY CONTINUE UNDER THICKENING MID/HIGH CLOUDS. WEAK SURFACE
LOW MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL STAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO MINIMIZE IMPACT ON THE LOCAL FLYING AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.
INCREASING EASTERLY WIND FLOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE
KJST/KAOO/KMDT/KLNS GUSTS AOA 20KTS. WINDS LESSEN TONIGHT AT THE
SURFACE...THOUGH 20-25KT WINDS WILL PERSIST AT 2000FT.
AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE TOWARD THE SE...CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH /INITIALLY KJST-KAOO/ AS SOON AS
LATE TONIGHT...AND POTENTIALLY SPREAD INTO THE LOWER SUSQ ON
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
SLOWLY WEAKENS AND LIFTS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA.
OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT-MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS...
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
TUE-WED...CHC OF SHRA/LOW CIGS NW MTNS.
THU...VFR NORTH MVFR CIGS SOUTH.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/MARTIN
NEAR TERM...DANGELO/DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
142 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULFSTREAM WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR WEST SLOWLY
DISSIPATES THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A DIMINISHING THREAT FOR
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 140 PM...WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
DAY ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND GUSTY NELY WIND. CURRENT FCST HAS THIS IN
PLACE...SO UPDATES MAINLY FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
AS OF 1045 AM...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE THRU THE
DAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY...WHILE OFF AN ON HEAVIER
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND MTNS. THAT SAID...
PRECIP RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENUF FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING...
BUT ISOLATED AREAS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INCREASING RATES. BREEZY NELY WINDS AND
LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL TODAY...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR.
0630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. PRECIP SHIELD
REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME CONVEC STREETS NOTED OVER THE
MIDLANDS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THIS WILL LOWER POP
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WITH SOME FILL-IN POSSIBLE AS MLVL
Q/CONVG CROSSES OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL LEAVE POP GRADIENT AS IS IN
THE GRIDS. RAINFALL REACHING THE ESCARPMENT IS NOT ENTIRELY ANCHORED
AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS NE/LY BELOW 4 KFT. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH MID DAY.
VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALIGNED IN DEEP ATL PWAT PLUME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED SOUTH WITH THE UPSLOPE REGIONS REMAINING IN A RELATIVE
MIN WITHIN NE/LY FLOW BELOW 4 KFT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HAVE ADJ QPF GRIDS TO FAVOR WRN UPSTATE AND NE
GA ALONG WITH FAR SW BR THROUGH 12Z.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SC LOW COUNTRY AND SE/RN GA
TODAY THEN STALL OUT WHILE BECOMING LESS DEFINED. MEANWHILE...A
NE/RN SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TO SOME DEGREE. THE 12 KM
NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 20 KM GFS AND THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF ISENT LIFT AND 300 K
SAT PRES DEFS. WITH LESS LLVL FORCING AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWING
RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR A
RELATIVELY LOW QPF RESPONSE OVER THE UPSTATE AND SRN NE GA. ALTHOUGH
ISOL NAM CONVEC SOUTH WOULD ADD LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER
AREAS WITH THE BEST 24-PRECIP. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA YET WITH NO GOOD CONVEC POTENTIAL AND A LITTLE MORE NON/MTN
STRATIFORM QPF RESPONSE.
IN ANY CASE...THE BEST AREA FOR PRECIP ACCUMS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE ALONG THE BR WHERE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER COULD
FALL THROUGH 12Z SAT AS LLVL FLOW BTW 3-5 KFT VEERS. THE NON/MTNS
WILL GENERALLY SEE AROUND A HALF INCH DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVEC WILL BE THE WILDCARD SOUTH IF ENUF MLVL DRYING
OCCURS AS STATED ABOVE. THUS...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IF HYDRO BECOMES AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES AND/OR THE ERN FACING BR LATE TODAY. MAXES WILL BE
HELD ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCALES WITH MINS A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW THE ONGOING
RAIN EVENT WILL UNWIND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHO THERE
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
FORCING TO THE N BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE NAM...WHICH WAS A
HOLDOUT...NOW HAS THE BEST Q-CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
VA/WV BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD ALSO BE
DIRECTED UP ACROSS THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION BY THAT TIME AS
WELL. THAT SUGGESTS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT
MUCH BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH IS GOOD. THE PROBLEM IS MAINLY WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING... AND THE NAM STILL HAS MUCH MORE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850MB DIRECTED AT THE NC MTNS. THUS...NO SURPRISE THAT THE
NAM HOLDS ONTO PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THOSE AREAS RIGHT THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS OPENS UP MORE OF A HOLE ACROSS
UPSTATE SC AND GRADUALLY ELIMINATES PRECIP FROM THERE TO THE POINT
WHERE IT HAS MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...AND IS BASICALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF STILL OFFERS A
DECENT COMPROMISE. THUS...WILL RAMP DOWN THE POP SATURDAY...AND THEN
HOLD ONTO THE LIKELY NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
LLVL FORCING WOULD BE BEST. POP WILL BE KEPT AT CHC ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE CHANCE POP GETS PARED BACK TO THE MTNS
WHERE ANY REMAINING LIFT WOULD BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FCST HAS
TOKEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP UNTIL WE GET BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WE DEAL WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...HAVE TABLED THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO
ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE
WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO
SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...HIGH PRESSURE NOSED INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NE WILL KEEP PERIODICALLY GUSTY NELY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE
PERIOD. KAVL THE EXCEPTION WHERE SELY WIND WILL PREVAIL DURING
DAYLIGHT AND NLY WIND AT NITE. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE
MEANS IFR CIGS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE
THRU THE PERIOD AS WELL. VSBY WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT SHUD BE MVFR
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR POSSIBLE DURING ANY HEAVIER SHRA
AND TOWARD DAYBREAK. VSBY SHUD IMPROVE BY NOON SAT...BUT IFR CIGS
WILL CONTINUE.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND PERIODICAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THRU THE
DAY SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY THRU EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
17-23Z 23-05Z 05-11Z 11-12Z
KCLT MED 71% HIGH 100% MED 66% HIGH 83%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JMP
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JMP/PM
AVIATION...RWH/SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1046 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL FEED
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A LENGTHY STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM...STILL EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND DRIZZLE THRU THE
DAY AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND ELY UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA. AN AREA OF HEAVIER RAINFALL OUTSIDE OF THE MTNS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWFA TODAY...WHILE OFF AN ON HEAVIER
RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE AND MTNS. THAT SAID...
PRECIP RATES DO NOT LOOK TO BE HIGH ENUF FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING...
BUT ISOLATED AREAS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY OF THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY COULD BE TAPPED INCREASING RATES. BREEZY NELY WINDS AND
LOW CLOUDS...ALONG WITH THE RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WILL KEEP HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL TODAY...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR.
0630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. PRECIP SHIELD
REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME CONVEC STREETS NOTED OVER THE
MIDLANDS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THIS WILL LOWER POP
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WITH SOME FILL-IN POSSIBLE AS MLVL
Q/CONVG CROSSES OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL LEAVE POP GRADIENT AS IS IN
THE GRIDS. RAINFALL REACHING THE ESCARPMENT IS NOT ENTIRELY ANCHORED
AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS NE/LY BELOW 4 KFT. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH MID DAY.
VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALIGNED IN DEEP ATL PWAT PLUME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED SOUTH WITH THE UPSLOPE REGIONS REMAINING IN A RELATIVE
MIN WITHIN NE/LY FLOW BELOW 4 KFT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HAVE ADJ QPF GRIDS TO FAVOR WRN UPSTATE AND NE
GA ALONG WITH FAR SW BR THROUGH 12Z.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SC LOW COUNTRY AND SE/RN GA
TODAY THEN STALL OUT WHILE BECOMING LESS DEFINED. MEANWHILE...A
NE/RN SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TO SOME DEGREE. THE 12 KM
NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 20 KM GFS AND THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF ISENT LIFT AND 300 K
SAT PRES DEFS. WITH LESS LLVL FORCING AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWING
RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR A
RELATIVELY LOW QPF RESPONSE OVER THE UPSTATE AND SRN NE GA. ALTHOUGH
ISOL NAM CONVEC SOUTH WOULD ADD LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER
AREAS WITH THE BEST 24-PRECIP. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA YET WITH NO GOOD CONVEC POTENTIAL AND A LITTLE MORE NON/MTN
STRATIFORM QPF RESPONSE.
IN ANY CASE...THE BEST AREA FOR PRECIP ACCUMS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE ALONG THE BR WHERE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER COULD
FALL THROUGH 12Z SAT AS LLVL FLOW BTW 3-5 KFT VEERS. THE NON/MTNS
WILL GENERALLY SEE AROUND A HALF INCH DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVEC WILL BE THE WILDCARD SOUTH IF ENUF MLVL DRYING
OCCURS AS STATED ABOVE. THUS...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IF HYDRO BECOMES AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES AND/OR THE ERN FACING BR LATE TODAY. MAXES WILL BE
HELD ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCALES WITH MINS A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW THE ONGOING
RAIN EVENT WILL UNWIND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHO THERE
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
FORCING TO THE N BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE NAM...WHICH WAS A
HOLDOUT...NOW HAS THE BEST Q-CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
VA/WV BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD ALSO BE
DIRECTED UP ACROSS THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION BY THAT TIME AS
WELL. THAT SUGGESTS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT
MUCH BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH IS GOOD. THE PROBLEM IS MAINLY WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING... AND THE NAM STILL HAS MUCH MORE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850MB DIRECTED AT THE NC MTNS. THUS...NO SURPRISE THAT THE
NAM HOLDS ONTO PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THOSE AREAS RIGHT THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS OPENS UP MORE OF A HOLE ACROSS
UPSTATE SC AND GRADUALLY ELIMINATES PRECIP FROM THERE TO THE POINT
WHERE IT HAS MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...AND IS BASICALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF STILL OFFERS A
DECENT COMPROMISE. THUS...WILL RAMP DOWN THE POP SATURDAY...AND THEN
HOLD ONTO THE LIKELY NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
LLVL FORCING WOULD BE BEST. POP WILL BE KEPT AT CHC ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE CHANCE POP GETS PARED BACK TO THE MTNS
WHERE ANY REMAINING LIFT WOULD BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FCST HAS
TOKEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP UNTIL WE GET BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WE DEAL WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...HAVE TABLED THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO
ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE
WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO
SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...MAIN CHANGE TO FCST HAS BEEN TO GO MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC THRU THE DAY WITH MVFR VSBY IN -RADZ AND IFR CIGS. GUSTY
NELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THRU MOST OF THE PERIOD AS WELL. VERY GOOD
MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUING OFF THE ATL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PW PLUME
HAS MAINTAINED STEADY STATE FLIGHT CONDS THIS MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW SAT PROFILES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE WAVERING IN CIGS
OUTSIDE OF LIMITED NOCTURNAL LIFTING. WINDS REMAIN NE/LY NON/MTNS
WITH LOW/END TO MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND A POSSIBLE
RETURN THIS EVENING AT KCLT. KAVL AND MTN VICINITY AIRPORTS SHOULD
EXPERIENCE LLWS ISSUES LATE PERIOD AS LLVL JET SWINGS AROUND SFC
TROF. A DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS TO MFVR/IFR IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN
LATE PERIOD ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THRU SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT MED 61% MED 66% MED 79% HIGH 91%
KGSP MED 66% MED 66% MED 70% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 70% MED 73% LOW 54% HIGH 87%
KHKY HIGH 83% MED 74% HIGH 81% HIGH 91%
KGMU MED 70% MED 66% HIGH 83% MED 75%
KAND HIGH 83% MED 61% HIGH 83% HIGH 87%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JMP
NEAR TERM...RWH/SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JMP/PM
AVIATION...RWH/SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
631 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL FEED
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A LENGTHY STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
0630 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FCST. PRECIP SHIELD
REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. SOME CONVEC STREETS NOTED OVER THE
MIDLANDS WITH DRY AIR ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THIS WILL LOWER POP
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SRN ZONES WITH SOME FILL-IN POSSIBLE AS MLVL
Q/CONVG CROSSES OVERHEAD. THUS...WILL LEAVE POP GRADIENT AS IS IN
THE GRIDS. RAINFALL REACHING THE ESCARPMENT IS NOT ENTIRELY ANCHORED
AS LLVL FLOW REMAINS NE/LY BELOW 4 KFT. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT WILL
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE THROUGH MID DAY.
VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALIGNED IN DEEP ATL PWAT PLUME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED SOUTH WITH THE UPSLOPE REGIONS REMAINING IN A RELATIVE
MIN WITHIN NE/LY FLOW BELOW 4 KFT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HAVE ADJ QPF GRIDS TO FAVOR WRN UPSTATE AND NE
GA ALONG WITH FAR SW BR THROUGH 12Z.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SC LOW COUNTRY AND SE/RN GA
TODAY THEN STALL OUT WHILE BECOMING LESS DEFINED. MEANWHILE...A
NE/RN SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TO SOME DEGREE. THE 12 KM
NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 20 KM GFS AND THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF ISENT LIFT AND 300 K
SAT PRES DEFS. WITH LESS LLVL FORCING AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWING
RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR A
RELATIVELY LOW QPF RESPONSE OVER THE UPSTATE AND SRN NE GA. ALTHOUGH
ISOL NAM CONVEC SOUTH WOULD ADD LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER
AREAS WITH THE BEST 24-PRECIP. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA YET WITH NO GOOD CONVEC POTENTIAL AND A LITTLE MORE NON/MTN
STRATIFORM QPF RESPONSE.
IN ANY CASE...THE BEST AREA FOR PRECIP ACCUMS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE ALONG THE BR WHERE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER COULD
FALL THROUGH 12Z SAT AS LLVL FLOW BTW 3-5 KFT VEERS. THE NON/MTNS
WILL GENERALLY SEE AROUND A HALF INCH DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVEC WILL BE THE WILDCARD SOUTH IF ENUF MLVL DRYING
OCCURS AS STATED ABOVE. THUS...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IF HYDRO BECOMES AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES AND/OR THE ERN FACING BR LATE TODAY. MAXES WILL BE
HELD ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCALES WITH MINS A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW THE ONGOING
RAIN EVENT WILL UNWIND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHO THERE
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
FORCING TO THE N BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE NAM...WHICH WAS A
HOLDOUT...NOW HAS THE BEST Q-CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
VA/WV BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD ALSO BE
DIRECTED UP ACROSS THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION BY THAT TIME AS
WELL. THAT SUGGESTS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT
MUCH BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH IS GOOD. THE PROBLEM IS MAINLY WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING... AND THE NAM STILL HAS MUCH MORE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850MB DIRECTED AT THE NC MTNS. THUS...NO SURPRISE THAT THE
NAM HOLDS ONTO PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THOSE AREAS RIGHT THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS OPENS UP MORE OF A HOLE ACROSS
UPSTATE SC AND GRADUALLY ELIMINATES PRECIP FROM THERE TO THE POINT
WHERE IT HAS MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...AND IS BASICALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF STILL OFFERS A
DECENT COMPROMISE. THUS...WILL RAMP DOWN THE POP SATURDAY...AND THEN
HOLD ONTO THE LIKELY NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
LLVL FORCING WOULD BE BEST. POP WILL BE KEPT AT CHC ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE CHANCE POP GETS PARED BACK TO THE MTNS
WHERE ANY REMAINING LIFT WOULD BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FCST HAS
TOKEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP UNTIL WE GET BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WE DEAL WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...HAVE TABLED THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO
ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE
WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO
SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUING OFF THE
ATL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PW PLUME HAS MAINTAINED STEADY STATE
FLIGHT CONDS THIS MORNING. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SAT PROFILES THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE WAVERING IN CIGS OUTSIDE OF LIMITED NOCTURNAL
LIFTING. GENERALLY...A TRANSITION FROM IFR TO MVFR CIGS IN ISOL
LOWERING VSBYS WITH SHRA. WINDS REMAIN NE/LY NON/MTNS WITH LOW/END
TO MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND A POSSIBLE RETURN THIS
EVENING AT KCLT. KAVL AND MTN VICINITY AIRPORTS SHOULD EXPERIENCE LLWS
ISSUES LATE PERIOD AS LLVL JET SWINGS AROUND SFC TROF. A DECREASE IN
CIG HEIGHTS TO MFVR/IFR IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATE PERIOD ALL
SITES.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THRU SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
10-16Z 16-22Z 22-04Z 04-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 95% HIGH 91% HIGH 97% HIGH 84%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JMP
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JMP/PM
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
342 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL FEED
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A LENGTHY STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX ALIGNED IN DEEP ATL PWAT PLUME CONTINUES
ACROSS THE FA THIS MORNING. HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED SOUTH WITH THE UPSLOPE REGIONS REMAINING IN A RELATIVE
MIN WITHIN NE/LY FLOW BELOW 4 KFT. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT FEW HRS AND HAVE ADJ QPF GRIDS TO FAVOR WRN UPSTATE AND NE
GA ALONG WITH FAR SW BR THROUGH 12Z.
THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE SC LOW COUNTRY AND SE/RN GA
TODAY THEN STALL OUT WHILE BECOMING LESS DEFINED. MEANWHILE...A
NE/RN SFC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TO SOME DEGREE. THE 12 KM
NAM IS LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE RIDGING THAN THE 20 KM GFS AND THIS
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE AS TO THE AMOUNT OF ISENT LIFT AND 300 K
SAT PRES DEFS. WITH LESS LLVL FORCING AND THE RAP MODEL SHOWING
RELATIVE DRYING ALOFT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...A CASE CAN BE MADE FOR A
RELATIVELY LOW QPF RESPONSE OVER THE UPSTATE AND SRN NE GA. ALTHOUGH
ISOL NAM CONVEC SOUTH WOULD ADD LOCALIZED HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF OVER
AREAS WITH THE BEST 24-PRECIP. THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR WITH THIS
IDEA YET WITH NO GOOD CONVEC POTENTIAL AND A LITTLE MORE NON/MTN
STRATIFORM QPF RESPONSE.
IN ANY CASE...THE BEST AREA FOR PRECIP ACCUMS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE ALONG THE BR WHERE AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER COULD
FALL THROUGH 12Z SAT AS LLVL FLOW BTW 3-5 KFT VEERS. THE NON/MTNS
WILL GENERALLY SEE AROUND A HALF INCH DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CONVEC WILL BE THE WILDCARD SOUTH IF ENUF MLVL DRYING
OCCURS AS STATED ABOVE. THUS...LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ARE A
LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT IF HYDRO BECOMES AN ISSUE...IT WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES AND/OR THE ERN FACING BR LATE TODAY. MAXES WILL BE
HELD ABOUT 10-12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MOST LOCALES WITH MINS A
COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM FRIDAY...MODELS STILL DISAGREE WITH HOW THE ONGOING
RAIN EVENT WILL UNWIND ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALTHO THERE
IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHIFTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER
FORCING TO THE N BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN THE NAM...WHICH WAS A
HOLDOUT...NOW HAS THE BEST Q-CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
VA/WV BY 18Z SATURDAY. THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD ALSO BE
DIRECTED UP ACROSS THE DELMARVA/TIDEWATER REGION BY THAT TIME AS
WELL. THAT SUGGESTS WE SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF A HEAVY PRECIP THREAT
MUCH BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY...WHICH IS GOOD. THE PROBLEM IS MAINLY WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING... AND THE NAM STILL HAS MUCH MORE
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE NC PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS AND A MORE EASTERLY
FLOW AT 850MB DIRECTED AT THE NC MTNS. THUS...NO SURPRISE THAT THE
NAM HOLDS ONTO PRECIP PRODUCTION ACROSS THOSE AREAS RIGHT THRU
SUNDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...THE GFS OPENS UP MORE OF A HOLE ACROSS
UPSTATE SC AND GRADUALLY ELIMINATES PRECIP FROM THERE TO THE POINT
WHERE IT HAS MINIMAL PRECIP ACROSS THE MTNS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT
ONWARD...AND IS BASICALLY DRY ELSEWHERE. THE ECMWF STILL OFFERS A
DECENT COMPROMISE. THUS...WILL RAMP DOWN THE POP SATURDAY...AND THEN
HOLD ONTO THE LIKELY NEAR THE NC BLUE RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE THE
LLVL FORCING WOULD BE BEST. POP WILL BE KEPT AT CHC ACROSS THE REST
OF THE AREA. ON SUNDAY...THE CHANCE POP GETS PARED BACK TO THE MTNS
WHERE ANY REMAINING LIFT WOULD BE THE BEST. THE REST OF THE FCST HAS
TOKEN CHC/SLIGHT CHC POP UNTIL WE GET BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. TEMPS
WILL BE SEASONALLY COOL AS WE DEAL WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD AIR
DAMMING WEDGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM FRIDAY...HAVE TABLED THE MEDIUM RANGE FOR NOW DUE TO
ONGOING FLOOD CONCERNS. NO CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE
WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW
OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO
SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0205 AM UPDATE...ADDED A WS GROUP TO KCLT THROUGH DAYBREAK. TCLT VAD
PROFILE SHOWING NE/LY LLVL JET DROPPING DOWN PERIODICALLY TO ARND 2
KFT.
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUING OFF THE
ATL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PW PLUME HAS MAINTAINED STEADY STATE
FLIGHT CONDS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SAT PROFILES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE WAVERING IN CIGS OUTSIDE OF LIMITED NOCTURNAL LIFTING.
GENERALLY...MFVR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
DIPS INTO IFR ARND AND THROUGH DAYBREAK ESP IN ISOL SHRA. THEN A
LIFT INTO LOW VFR PROBABLE LATE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NE/LY NON/MTNS
WITH MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS P/GRAD LOOSENS. KAVL
AND MTN VICINITY AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE WS ISSUES LATE PERIOD AS
LLVL JET SWINGS AROUND SFC TROF. A DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS TO
MFVR/IFR IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATTER PERIOD ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THRU SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
07-13Z 13-19Z 19-01Z 01-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 92% HIGH 100% HIGH 96%
KGSP MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 91% HIGH 91% HIGH 91% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 81% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 66% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAND HIGH 98% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO/JMP
NEAR TERM...SBK
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...JMP/PM
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
211 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL FEED
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A LENGTHY STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...PRECIP REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE MOST LOCALES THIS
MORNING...WITH SIGFNT RATES OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR SRN
ZONES...MAINLY OVER GREENWOOD/ABBEVILLE COUNTIES. RADAR PRECIP
ESTIMATES ARE BIASED ON THE LOW END AND WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF
PREVIOUS RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS WILL ISSUE A FFW THROUGH 0830Z.
NEARLY STEADY STATE T/TDS REQUIRED LITTLE GRID ADJS.
AS OF 10 PM...RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
SINCE 9 PM...RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES
INDICATED THAT RAINFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS RANGED NEAR
ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WITH COMMON VALUES AROUND 0.3 INCHES.
ONE HOUR FFG REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3 IN / HR FOR MOST AREAS. MODEL
QPF WITHIN RIVER MODELING INDICATE THAT THE LARGER RIVERS APPEAR IN
LITTLE THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH FRI AM.
AT 2Z...TCLT VWP INDICATED THAT WINDS AROUND 5 KFT HAVE INCREASED TO
40 KTS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS...TRACKING
TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EXPANDING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES TONIGHT. FOR THE UPDATE...I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND CLICK QPF A LITTLE HIGHER. NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TONIGHT.
AS OF 8 PM...VERY IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF WATER VAPOR...FROM SOUTH OF
CUBA NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT
INDICATES A PLUME OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. NAM AND RAP INDICATES THAT LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE EAST...STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30 KTS. THE LLVL FLOW WILL
CREATE WIDESPREAD LIFT OVER A SFC RIDGE AND ALONG THE EAST FACING
SLOPES. IN ADDITION...GFS40 SHOWS A FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...ON THE NE SIDE OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO 100
PERCENT...OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
AS OF 530 PM...LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
OFF THE CENTRAL SC SHORE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A BAND OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS HAS PIVOTED BACK TOWARD THE COAST...RESULTING IN WARMING
CLOUD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND CENTRAL GA. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS...THE CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL MAY
SLIDE TOWARD THE WEST...FOLLOWED BY CLUSTERS OF LIGHT RAIN HEADED
INTO THIS EVENING.
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE DYNAMIC LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF
EAST LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PWS WILL INCREASE TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES WITH THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEPENING TO AROUND 13
KFT. IN ADDITION...GFS40S SHOWS A FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA... ON THE NE SIDE OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW.
I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POP TIMING AND INCREASE QPF
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE AND AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER OFF THE GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE
INLAND TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...INCREASING EASTERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A SURFACE
RIDGE...AND MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST FACING BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN DROUGHT...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
OCCUR IN SMALLER STREAM BASIN AND HILLY TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE NOT ISSUED OUR BLUE RIDGE AREA...AS IT APPEARS PRECIPITANT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE
NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN COOL NE SURFACE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY MAXIMUMS UNDER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THEY HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AMOUNT OF QPF. MANY OF THE TRADITIONAL PARAMETERS NEEDED FOR
FLOODING TYPE RAINFALL ARE NOT THERE. OPS MDLS SHOW PW VALUES ARE UP
TO 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 1 TO MAYBE
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET MAX...1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...THIS DISSIPATES ON SAT AS THE JET MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME FROM STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING H85 ELY FLOW UP TO 4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE BEST H85 FLOW THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SREF DOES
KEEP IT OVER OUR PORTION OF THE BLUE RIDGE LONGER THAN THE GEFS.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WPC HAS DROPPED THE QPF FCST ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS AS WELL. THAT SAID...THIS STILL PUTS 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CANNOT RULE OUT FLOODING...
BUT IT APPEARS TO NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWER POP ACROSS THE SWRN CWFA.
WITH A WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE AND CONTINUED RAINFALL...EXPECT BREEZY
AND COOL CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SAT THEN RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUN. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
0205 AM UPDATE...ADDED A WS GROUP TO KCLT THROUGH DAYBREAK. TCLT VAD
PROFILE SHOWING NE/LY LLVL JET DROPPING DOWN PERIODICALLY TO ARND 2
KFT.
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUING OFF THE
ATL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PW PLUME HAS MAINTAINED STEADY STATE
FLIGHT CONDS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SAT PROFILES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE WAVERING IN CIGS OUTSIDE OF LIMITED NOCTURNAL LIFTING.
GENERALLY...MFVR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
DIPS INTO IFR ARND AND THROUGH DAYBREAK ESP IN ISOL SHRA. THEN A
LIFT INTO LOW VFR PROBABLE LATE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NE/LY NON/MTNS
WITH MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS P/GRAD LOOSENS. KAVL
AND MTN VICINITY AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE WS ISSUES LATE PERIOD AS
LLVL JET SWINGS AROUND SFC TROF. A DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS TO
MFVR/IFR IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATTER PERIOD ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THRU SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
KGSP MED 65% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAVL HIGH 80% HIGH 91% HIGH 96% HIGH 94%
KHKY HIGH 84% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU MED 64% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%
KAND HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 98% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...NED/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
138 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL FEED
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A LENGTHY STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...PRECIP REMAINS LIGHT TO MODERATE MOST LOCALES THIS
MORNING...WITH SIGFNT RATES OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR SRN
ZONES...MAINLY OVER GREENWOOD/ABBEVILLE COUNTIES. RADAR PRECIP
ESTIMATES ARE BIASED ON THE LOW END AND WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF
PREVIOUS RAIN ACROSS THOSE AREAS WILL ISSUE A FFW THROUGH 0830Z.
NEARLY STEADY STATE T/TDS REQUIRED LITTLE GRID ADJS.
AS OF 10 PM...RAINFALL CONTINUES ACROSS ALL COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
SINCE 9 PM...RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES
INDICATED THAT RAINFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS RANGED NEAR
ONE HALF OF AN INCH PER HOUR...WITH COMMON VALUES AROUND 0.3 INCHES.
ONE HOUR FFG REMAINS SLIGHTLY ABOVE 3 IN / HR FOR MOST AREAS. MODEL
QPF WITHIN RIVER MODELING INDICATE THAT THE LARGER RIVERS APPEAR IN
LITTLE THREAT OF FLOODING THROUGH FRI AM.
AT 2Z...TCLT VWP INDICATED THAT WINDS AROUND 5 KFT HAVE INCREASED TO
40 KTS. IR SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT CLUSTER OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING OVER THE MIDLANDS...TRACKING
TOWARD THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THE UPSLOPE FLOW...DEEP
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND EXPANDING Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE
RAINFALL RATES TONIGHT. FOR THE UPDATE...I WILL INCREASE POPS TO
TRIPLE DIGITS AND CLICK QPF A LITTLE HIGHER. NEARLY STEADY
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN TONIGHT.
AS OF 8 PM...VERY IMPRESSIVE STREAM OF WATER VAPOR...FROM SOUTH OF
CUBA NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. BLENDED TOTAL PW PRODUCT
INDICATES A PLUME OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. NAM AND RAP INDICATES THAT LLVL WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE EAST...STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 30 KTS. THE LLVL FLOW WILL
CREATE WIDESPREAD LIFT OVER A SFC RIDGE AND ALONG THE EAST FACING
SLOPES. IN ADDITION...GFS40 SHOWS A FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA...ON THE NE SIDE OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW. THERE IS NO QUESTION THAT RAINFALL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. I WILL UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS TO 100
PERCENT...OR VERY CLOSE TO IT. TEMPERATURES MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH THE REST OF TONIGHT.
AS OF 530 PM...LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
OFF THE CENTRAL SC SHORE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A BAND OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS HAS PIVOTED BACK TOWARD THE COAST...RESULTING IN WARMING
CLOUD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND CENTRAL GA. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS...THE CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL MAY
SLIDE TOWARD THE WEST...FOLLOWED BY CLUSTERS OF LIGHT RAIN HEADED
INTO THIS EVENING.
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE DYNAMIC LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF
EAST LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PWS WILL INCREASE TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES WITH THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEPENING TO AROUND 13
KFT. IN ADDITION...GFS40S SHOWS A FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA... ON THE NE SIDE OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW.
I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POP TIMING AND INCREASE QPF
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE AND AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER OFF THE GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE
INLAND TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...INCREASING EASTERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A SURFACE
RIDGE...AND MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST FACING BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN DROUGHT...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
OCCUR IN SMALLER STREAM BASIN AND HILLY TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE NOT ISSUED OUR BLUE RIDGE AREA...AS IT APPEARS PRECIPITANT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE
NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN COOL NE SURFACE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY MAXIMUMS UNDER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THEY HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AMOUNT OF QPF. MANY OF THE TRADITIONAL PARAMETERS NEEDED FOR
FLOODING TYPE RAINFALL ARE NOT THERE. OPS MDLS SHOW PW VALUES ARE UP
TO 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 1 TO MAYBE
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET MAX...1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...THIS DISSIPATES ON SAT AS THE JET MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME FROM STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING H85 ELY FLOW UP TO 4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE BEST H85 FLOW THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SREF DOES
KEEP IT OVER OUR PORTION OF THE BLUE RIDGE LONGER THAN THE GEFS.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WPC HAS DROPPED THE QPF FCST ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS AS WELL. THAT SAID...THIS STILL PUTS 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CANNOT RULE OUT FLOODING...
BUT IT APPEARS TO NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWER POP ACROSS THE SWRN CWFA.
WITH A WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE AND CONTINUED RAINFALL...EXPECT BREEZY
AND COOL CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SAT THEN RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUN. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VERY GOOD MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUING OFF THE
ATL ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP PW PLUME HAS MAINTAINED STEADY STATE
FLIGHT CONDS. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW SAT PROFILES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH LITTLE WAVERING IN CIGS OUTSIDE OF LIMITED NOCTURNAL LIFTING.
GENERALLY...MFVR CIGS WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE
DIPS INTO IFR ARND AND THROUGH DAYBREAK ESP IN ISOL SHRA. THEN A
LIFT INTO LOW VFR PROBABLE LATE MORNING. WINDS REMAIN NE/LY NON/MTNS
WITH MODERATE GUSTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS P/GRAD LOOSENS. KAVL
AND MTN VICINITY AIRPORTS WILL EXPERIENCE WS ISSUES LATE PERIOD AS
LLVL JET SWINGS AROUND SFC TROF. A DECREASE IN CIG HEIGHTS TO
MFVR/IFR IS ANTICIPATED AGAIN LATTER PERIOD ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THRU SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 93% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KGSP MED 78% MED 61% MED 78% MED 66%
KAVL LOW 57% LOW 38% LOW 39% HIGH 91%
KHKY LOW 57% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 91%
KGMU HIGH 85% HIGH 83% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 85% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...NED/SBK
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
842 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE SPREADING
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL THIRD OF THE MID STATE...WITH
SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST SECTION DRY ATTM. LATEST HRRR INDICATES
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER MIDNIGHT...SO WILL SHOW
CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. DESPITE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARGUES FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LEFT MENTION IN GRIDS/ZONES. LOWS
MAY BE A BIT ON THE LOW SIDE BASED ON CURRENT DEWPOINTS AND SKY
COVER...BUT WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW. UPDATED PRODUCTS ALREADY
SENT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 00Z FORECASTS
MOISTURE FEED CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID STATE OUT OF NORTHWEST
GEORGIA. FEED CONTINUES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT THEN WEAKENS DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP MVFR CONDITIONS IN FORECAST AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH MID-MORNING ON SUNDAY AS LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS
WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 64 79 65 83 / 40 20 10 30
CLARKSVILLE 64 78 63 82 / 40 20 10 20
CROSSVILLE 62 74 62 78 / 20 20 20 30
COLUMBIA 63 79 64 83 / 30 20 20 30
LAWRENCEBURG 63 79 65 82 / 20 20 20 40
WAVERLY 63 78 64 83 / 30 20 10 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1146 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION.
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS INTO NORTHWEST
GEORGIA AND EASTERN TENNESSEE. LATEST HRRR TIMES THIS LIGHT RAIN
TO REACH THE PLATEAU COUNTIES AROUND 09Z OR SO...THEN SPREADING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS ALL HANDLED AND NO CHANGES WERE MADE.
AFTER ANOTHER MILD NIGHT TONIGHT...HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN SEEN RECENTLY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLATEAU WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT MAKE IT
OUT OF THE 60S.
SHAMBURGER
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
VFR LOOKS TO HOLD A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING FOR ALL TAF SITES
BEFORE DROPPING CIGS TO IMPACT KCSV LATER THIS MORNING. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE AT KCSV BY 12Z OR SO...THEN IFR CIGS BY THE AFTERNOON.
MODELS ALSO HINTING AT LIFR CIGS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AT KCSV.
HAVE KBNA AND KCKV WITH MVFR CIGS BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES
WILL MOVE IN WITH THE LOWER CIGS...AND MAY LOWER VIS TO MVFR AND
EVEN IFR FOR THIS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
937 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP
HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND WHAT REMAINS IS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
COULD SEE SOMETHING VERY ISOLATED DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE WRF-NAM
HINTS AT...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS SLIM. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT
A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE
OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A
TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO
POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND
THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO
MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL
AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM...
A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS
IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN
HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE
COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
636 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT
A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE
OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A
TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO
POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND
THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO
MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL
AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM...
A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS
IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN
HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE
COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 20 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 20 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 20 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
105 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COMBINED WITH A STRONG
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL UNDER GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND COOL
TEMPERATURES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BRINGING
SOMEWHAT DRIER AND WARMER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 935 PM EDT THURSDAY...
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INCREASING OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN NC...WITH
POCKETS OF MODERATE RAIN. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA OF
PRECIP WELL...AND STARTS TO PROGRESS IT NWD INTO THE VIRGINIAS
BETWEEN 10 PM AND 3 AM. THE FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WHICH
IS SOMEWHAT CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
GENEROUS QUARTER TO HALF INCH BY MORNING FROM THE NC/VA BORDER
SWD...WITH LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE OVER THE ALLEGHANYS.
PWATS HAVE RISEN FROM .7 TO .89 HERE AT RNK PER SOUNDING FROM 8 AM
TODAY TIL 8 PM...WHILE GSO HAS GONE FROM 0.74 TO 1.52 DURING THIS
TIME.
SITUATION WET FOR MORNING COMMUTE SO TRAVELER SHOULD WATCH FOR
PONDING ON THE ROADS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERSTATE 81 SOUTHWEST OF
CHRISTIANSBURG/BLACKSBURG...I-77 SOUTH OF WYTHEVILLE ALONG HIGHWAY
58 IN VIRGINIA...AND POINTS SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WITH MORE CLOUDS WILL DROP SOME ESPECIALLY
ONCE RAIN HITS AND WET BULBS TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON WV LOOPS THIS EVENING
FROM THE SC/NC COAST NW INTO WRN NC. A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN IS ON
THE WAY FOR THE APPALACHIANS AND CENTRAL MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE
OVERALL SCENARIO ADVERTISED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS IS STARTING TO
UNFOLD AS DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC
COAST IS THROWING DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN OUR
DIRECTION...CLEARLY EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS WILL LEAD
TO STEADILY THICKENING CLOUDS WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT...MARKING THE START OF A
PERIOD OF RAIN THAT WILL LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...WATER LEVELS ARE STILL RUNNING LOW FROM OUR RECENT DRY
SPELL AND PRECIPITATION RATES DO NOT APPEAR THAT THEY WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TO CAUSE A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN AT THIS TIME. WITH THIS IN
MIND...THE AREA SEEMS WELL SITUATED TO ABSORB A LONG DURATION
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT WITHOUT CAUSING SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS SO NO
FLOOD/FLASH FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS
ALWAYS...THE NEED FOR ANY FLASH/FLOOD WATCHES WILL CONTINUALLY BE
MONITORED AND MAY BE ISSUED AT A LATER TIME IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.
EXPECT THAT THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL
FOR TOMORROW AND WILL GO ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH
MID/UPPER 60S EAST OF THE RIDGE AND LOW/MID 60S EAST. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN AND THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL MAKE FOR A
STIFF NORTHEAST BREEZE OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THEN
WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. MODELS STILL ADVERTISING STRING
EARLY FLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB WINDS
FROM THE EAST AT SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 45 KNOTS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
MODELS SHOW A WELL DEFINED IN-SITU WEDGE WITH LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED ABOVE THE INVERSION. DEPTH OF WEDGE IS
FORECAST TO BE 3000 TO 8000 FEET DEEP ACCORDING TO THE BUFKIT FROM
THE GFS AND NAM. MUCH OF THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERRUN THE
COLD AIR IN THE WEDGE...WELL ABOVE ANY HEIGHTS THAT WOULD ADD TO
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT. SO AXIS OF MAXIMUM PRECIPITATION MAY BE IN THE
PIEDMONT...ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD AIR DOME. BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE A SECONDARY MAXIMUM ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.
WEDGE...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL RESULT IN ONLY A SMALL RISE IN
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY CLOSE TO ECMWF VALUES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS GROWS LARGER IN THIS TIME
RANGE...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MODELS SHOW A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS WITH
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
COASTAL SURFACE TROFFIING AND WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FORECAST
AREA PERSISTS INTO MONDAY SO WILL MAINTAIN PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DUE TO THE CONTINUED INFLOW OF MOISTURE OFF THE
ATLANTIC. APPEARS BEST FORCING WILL BE CONFINED TO THE CLOSED LOW
AND GULF COAST REGION AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH ALONG A COLD FRONT.
ECMWF SHOWING DECENT 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH TROFFING
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY. WPC WAS FAVORING A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF. NOT MUCH MOISTURE LEFT ALONG THE FRONT BY WEDNESDAY SO
WILL HAVE DAY 5 TO DAY 7 OF THE FORECAST DRY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHIFTS SLOWLY
NORTH THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS SHOULD HELP LOWER CIGS INITIALLY INTO MVFR
LEVELS ALONG THE KBLF-KBCB-KDAN CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT AND POINTS TO
THE NORTH AND EAST EARLY FRIDAY. PRECIP MENTIONED IN THE TAFS
FIRST AT DANVILLE SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN REMAINING
LOCATIONS BETWEEN 06-12Z AND LEWISBURG BY 14Z. EXPECT CEILINGS TO
FINALLY DROP THROUGH MVFR EARLY FRIDAY AS THINGS SATURATE FURTHER AND
EVENTUALLY IFR DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. KBLF MAY TREND IN AND OUT
OF LIFR AS WELL AS KLWB GIVEN DOWNSLOPE FLOW...OTHERWISE APPEARS
LOW IFR CIGS IN ORDER ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...AND GUST 15-30 KTS AT TIMES FROM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST THIS
WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS AGREE THAT PERIODS OF RAIN WILL PERSIST
THIS WEEKEND BUT DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON INTENSITY. REGARDLESS OF THE
AMOUNT OF RAIN...A STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
AND SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS SHOULD BE EXPECTED.
THE WEDGE SHOULD WEAKEN ON MONDAY BRINGING IN DRIER AIR AND RETURN
CONDITIONS TO VFR. HOWEVER ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE MID
WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP AND SUB VFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/WP
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...CF/JH/MBS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
930 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE MAY BE
EXPANDED A LITTLE WESTWARD LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
EXPECT THE IFR/LIFR TO EXPAND TONIGHT AS MOIST AIR FLOWS ACROSS
LAKE MICHIGAN. AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL PUSH IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS MAY IMPROVE THE FOG SITUATION BUT EXPECT AREAS OF
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET. SURFACE/925 FLOW STARTS TO TURN FROM THE EAST
MORE TO SOUTH OR SE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WEAK VORT AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
FROM IN/OH INTO LWR MI. LLVL RH PROGS SHOW MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW ACRS THE CWA ESP AFTER 6Z. THIS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATL
IMGRY ACRS SRN IL INTO IN AND OH WITH A NW DRIFT/EXPANSION OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD. THE NAM IS STILL A BIT FEISTY WITH FOG AND VRY LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST...ESP NEAR THE LAKE. GFS IS MUCH
DRIER. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHALLOW SATURATION BY MID EVENING
..BRIEF ON THE RAP BUT LONGER ON THE NAM. DO HAVE FOG MENTIONED BUT
TIMING TRICKY ESP WITH CLOUD COVER ADVANCING FROM THE SE. MOS AND
SREF DO SHOW SPOTTY COVERAGE TO ANY DENSE POCKETS WITH OVERALL LESS
PROB OF DENSE THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE NEAR
THE LAKE MI SHORE WITH A MIDGE HIGHER DEW POINTS THERE IN THE U50S/L60S.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN OVERALL SRLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE EASTERN HIGH AND COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW
NOT SEEING THE FORCING OR DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY THE 20-35 POPS
BEING GENERATED BY MOS. SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN PLACE.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE INVERSION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT SKIES WILL SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SUNDAY EVENING TO VIEW
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE. WITH LACK OF ANY UPWARD FORCING... I TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD LOWER SKY COVER. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN SOUTHEAST WI.
SCATTERED SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS FOR A DRY
FORECAST IN THE MKX AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS WI WITHIN THE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT LAGS JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING... BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL DIFFER.
EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS... SO AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AND THE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH SMALL POPS LINGER IN THE FORECAST DUE TO A PREVIOUSLY
WETTER FORECAST. THEN AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WI THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF THE MODELS LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR A DECENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INLAND CU FILED TO DISSIPATE DIURNALLY WITH
SHORELINE STRATUS DECK NORTH OF KMKE GRADUALLY ERODING. SREF CIG/VIS
PROB PROG SHOWS BETTER FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ACROSS NW CWA WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH WAVE RIDING NWWD FROM THE OH VLY. SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ON SUNDAY. MET MOS/NAM SHOWING IFR CIG POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH MOISTURE FIELDS MAY BE OVERDONE ON THE NAM.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE NEAR THE LAKE AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS
FOUND THERE.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ065-066-070>072.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ052-059-060.
LM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ645-646.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643-644.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HENTZ
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
300 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER AREA EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THIS EVENING MAY SLIP BACK
WESTWARD OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR FOG TO REFORM YET AGAIN OVER THE
LOWER AREAS OF THE PANHANDLE LATER TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER
THE CWA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER A SLOWLY WEAKENING UPPER
RIDGE. A MODEST COOL FRONT MAY SLIP INTO CENTRAL WYOMING DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH THE FRONT SAGGING ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTH PARTS OF THE CWA
LATER SUNDAY BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS TIME. TEMPS REMAINING
QUITE WARM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A FEW RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLY
BEING ATTAINED.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
12Z MEDIUM MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT TO START THE WORK
WEEK WITH A UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND
ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. THE GFS
AND ECMWF PUSH A SURFACE RIDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PLAINS...WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH
THROUGH SOUTHEAST WY AND NE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE WARMEST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH LOW
TO MID 80S OVER SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS AND SOUTHERN NE PANHANDLE...
AND 70S BEHIND THE FRONT. A SHORTWAVE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER COVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
CAPE FOR A FEW TSTORMS AS WELL. THE GFS LOOKS OVERDONE WITH ITS
QPF AND SIDED WITH THE ECMWF. IT WILL BE COOLER TUESDAY WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS FAR NORTHEAST CWA AND SOUTHEAST WY MOUNTAINS.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN MID 60S TO MID 70S.
MODEL DIFFERENCES APPEAR MID WEEK WITH THE ECMWF BUILDING THE UPPER
RIDGE NORTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE
RIDGE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FAVORED THE DRIER AND WARMER WEST-NORTHWEST PATTERN WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE FLOW ALOFT
BACKS TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH TO THE
WEST THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ADVECT SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO
SOUTHEAST WY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS AS WELL AS OVER EAST CENTRAL WY
AND NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER. A PACIFIC FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING WITH A DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
IFR CEILINGS ARE ERODING FROM TOR TO BFF AND SOUTH TO SNY AT MIDDAY.
EXPECT VFR/SKC ALL TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 10
KT OR LESS...EXCEPT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE THEY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KT. IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR WESTERN NE
AND FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS. TIMING OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BASED
ON THE LATEST SREF AND HRRR MODELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CONCERNS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY ON THE LOW SIDE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
SHORT PERIODS OF TIME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS DUE TO SOME BREEZINESS...BUT WINDS
LOOK LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS OVERALL.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1146 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NE PANHANDLE AND PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND ABOUT
15Z WHEN THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG STARTING TO ERODE. WE COULD VERY WELL
SEE THIS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SAT VIA MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. INHIBITING FACTOR FOR FOG WOULD BE STRONGER WINDS OWING
TO A HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN WE ARE SEEING ATTM...BUT
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH OFFER ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS. IT STILL LOOKS VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS IN
THE +13 TO +15 DEG C RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SAT/SUN. EXPECT
TO SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 85-95 DEG F RANGE...WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD AT SOME SITES. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MID-
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH A RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG MIXING WILL ALMOST UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH...BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AS ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND 12C. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MON NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY BY TUESDAY. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH
QPF ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
INTERACT WITH THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE. THE ECMWF SHOWS LOW STRATUS
TO THE EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER UPWARD MOTION IS LACKING. HAVE 20
PERCENT POPS FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH. THERE WILL BE A COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT. THE ECMWF SHOWS QUICKLY RISING HEIGHTS/TEMPS BY WED
WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUITE LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
IFR CEILINGS ARE ERODING FROM TOR TO BFF AND SOUTH TO SNY AT MIDDAY.
EXPECT VFR/SKC ALL TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE 10
KT OR LESS...EXCEPT WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WHERE THEY WILL BE
SOUTHWESTERLY 10 TO 15 KT. IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR LOW CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOR WESTERN NE
AND FAR SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS. TIMING OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS BASED
ON THE LATEST SREF AND HRRR MODELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AT
OR BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20-25 MPH
AT TIMES. NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZAF
AVIATION...MAJ
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
549 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NE PANHANDLE AND PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND ABOUT
15Z WHEN THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG STARTING TO ERODE. WE COULD VERY WELL
SEE THIS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SAT VIA MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. INHIBITING FACTOR FOR FOG WOULD BE STRONGER WINDS OWING
TO A HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN WE ARE SEEING ATTM...BUT
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH OFFER ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS. IT STILL LOOKS VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS IN
THE +13 TO +15 DEG C RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SAT/SUN. EXPECT
TO SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 85-95 DEG F RANGE...WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD AT SOME SITES. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MID-
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH A RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG MIXING WILL ALMOST UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH...BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AS ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND 12C. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MON NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY BY TUES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
ON TUES AND TUES NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
THE LLVL UPSLOPE. THE ECMWF SHOWS LOW STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER
UPWARD MOTION IS LACKING. HAVE 20 PERCENT POPS FROM TUES INTO TUES
NIGHT WITH THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH. THERE WILL BE A
COOLDOWN FOR TUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF SHOWS QUICKLY RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS BY WED WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 546 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
IFR CONDITIONS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE SITES THROUGH 15-16Z. VIS IN FOG COULD BE
REDUCED TO A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AT
OR BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20-25 MPH
AT TIMES. NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
403 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE. A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS REMAINS IN
PLACE WITH WIDESPREAD SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 40S/50S. LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES HAVE ONCE AGAIN ALLOWED PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE NE PANHANDLE AND PLATTE RIVER VALLEY EXTENDING INTO SOUTHEASTERN
WY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUGGESTS SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL BEYOND ABOUT
15Z WHEN THE HRRR HINTS AT FOG STARTING TO ERODE. WE COULD VERY WELL
SEE THIS AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NAM SHOWS A RATHER ROBUST INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AFTER 03Z SAT VIA MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW. INHIBITING FACTOR FOR FOG WOULD BE STRONGER WINDS OWING
TO A HIGHER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAN WE ARE SEEING ATTM...BUT
NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS BOTH OFFER ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ADD PATCHY FOG
TO THE GRIDS. IT STILL LOOKS VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND WITH H7 TEMPS IN
THE +13 TO +15 DEG C RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ON SAT/SUN. EXPECT
TO SEE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 85-95 DEG F RANGE...WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD AT SOME SITES. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL
SEE AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON...BUT MID-
LEVEL FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG WITH A RIDGE AXIS PARKED OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG MIXING WILL ALMOST UNDOUBTEDLY YIELD A
FEW GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH...BUT OPTED NOT TO ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AS ANY POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL
AT BEST.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT AND 700MB TEMPS AROUND 12C. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MON NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOME
EASTERLY BY TUES. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE MORE BULLISH WITH QPF
ON TUES AND TUES NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH
THE LLVL UPSLOPE. THE ECMWF SHOWS LOW STRATUS TO THE EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WITH DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER
UPWARD MOTION IS LACKING. HAVE 20 PERCENT POPS FROM TUES INTO TUES
NIGHT WITH THE MODEL UNCERTAINTY STILL HIGH. THERE WILL BE A
COOLDOWN FOR TUES BEHIND THE FRONT. THE ECMWF SHOWS QUICKLY RISING
HEIGHTS/TEMPS BY WED WHEREAS THE GFS HAS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
MOVING OVERHEAD. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM WILL BE QUITE
LIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF LIFR VIS AND FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST WY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 345 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WILL LIKELY SEE MINIMUM HUMIDITIES AT
OR BELOW 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. ELEVATED CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND AS WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20-25 MPH
AT TIMES. NO FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1202 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST 11-3.9U SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A WIDE BAND OF LOW CLOUDS
INCHING WESTWARD FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARDS THE PANHANDLE.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWING FOG COULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AFTER MIDNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND EXPANDED FOG TO COVER
MUCH OF THE PANHANDLE TO THE WYOMING STATE LINE. UPDATES HAVE BEEN
SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
COMPLEMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME LATER SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THATS ABOUT THE
ONLY WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE OVERALL. SOME MAINLY VALLEY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE AS WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MAY ADVECT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO DESERT SOUTHWEST SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM IA WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PULLING A PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE QUITE
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...COOL 5 TO
10 DEGREES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THROUGH MID MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS AND A VERY MOIST AIRMASS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR AREAS OF LIFR VIS AND FOG. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL OVER SOUTHEAST WY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME ELEVATED CONCERNS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD COME UP A BIT BUT NOT LOOKING TOO STRONG AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GCC
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1139 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS. STILL
NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS ON THE PLAINS BUT DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
50S...TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE LOW AND SURFACE WINDS
HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS. SO...IT
COULD STILL HAPPEN LATER TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AS OF 05Z.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE MON
EVENING BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1105 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1101 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO SIGN OF LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS AS OF 05Z.
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED LOW CIGS ALONG THE LOWER
ARKANSAS EARLY SUN MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. NEXT FRONT WILL ARRIVE MON
EVENING BUT IT LOOKS PRETTY WEAK. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1010 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PUSHED BACK ONSET OF LOW CLOUDS OVER FAR EASTERN PLAINS GIVEN
LACK OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATED BY SATELLITE PICTURES SO FAR.
ALSO REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 619 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCATTERED PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ON
THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE MILD
IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS RIDGING
ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 527 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LIGHT SOUTHERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW OVER THE SE CO PLAINS TONIGHT COULD BRING SOME AREAS OF LOW
CIGS UP THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN
MORNING. MOST OF THE LOW CIGS SHOULD STAY E OF KLHX...AND ANY
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LESS EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THEN IT WAS
SAT MORNING. HAVE ALLUDED TO FEW020 CIGS IN THE KPUB TAF TO
ACCOUNT FOR A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME STRATUS MOVING UP THE
ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
505 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW A COMPLEX UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/DEEP SOUTHERN STATES
THIS MORNING. MAIN NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS STILL DISPLACED WELL TO
THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BY A SW TO NE ELONGATED UPPER
RIDGE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY. EAST OF
THIS RIDGE THE SAME BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH WE DISCUSSED LAST NIGHT
REMAINS IN PLACE...ANCHORED BY A LARGE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN GULF HAS ACTED TO STRENGTHEN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA/WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE INCREASING
GRADIENT IN THE HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO HAS RESULTED IN A WELL-DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL JET THAT IS
TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER
OUR HEADS. NOT THINKING WE WILL BE SEEING A WHOLE LOT OF SUNSHINE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS ACTUALLY QUITE
IMPRESSIVE. THE 27/00Z KTBW SOUNDING MEASURED A PW VALUE OF 2.14".
THIS VALUE IS OVER THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS SHOW A FURTHER
INCREASE IN THE PW DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.
AT THE SURFACE...THE PATTERN IS NO LESS COMPLEX THAN IT IS ALOFT.
LOOKING AT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WE HAVE A RIDGE SNEAKING DOWN
INTO GA/AL TO OUR NORTH...A WEAK LOW SPINNING TO NORTHEAST OF THE
BAHAMAS...AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW/TROUGH ENTERING THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PRESSURE PATTERN IS PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
A LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW. REGIONAL RADARS ARE QUIET OVER THE
PENINSULA...HOWEVER ENERGY ALOFT LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT OF THE NW CARIBBEAN IS RESULTING IN EXPANDING
AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY
WEST OF OUR COAST THIS MORNING...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE MAKING ME
INCREASINGLY NERVOUS THAT SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY MAKE A CLOSER
PASS TO THE SUNCOAST FROM LEE COUNTY NORTHWARD TO PINELLAS COUNTY
THAN WHAT THE NWP CONSENSUS...OR CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND
UPDATE IF NECESSARY. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP HAVE CERTAINLY
TRENDED EASTWARD WITH THE PRECIP...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT STILL
KEEP THE MAJORITY OF ITS CONVECTIVE PRECIP JUST OFFSHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
A VERY COMPLEX PATTERN...DEFINED BY LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST
CONFIDENCE THROUGH THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...AS AN ILL-DEFINED
SURFACE LOW ENTERS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF AND MOVES NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR NORTHEAST GULF COAST. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS...LEADING ENERGY ALOFT IS REALLY MAKING FOR SOME
ACTIVE CONVECTION OFFSHORE OVER THE GULF EARLY THIS MORNING. THERE
IS A REAL POTENTIAL THAT POPS ALONG THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE
RAISED FOR LATER THIS MORNING IF CURRENT RADAR/CONVECTIVE TRENDS
CONTINUE. HOWEVER...WITH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...EVEN LATEST
RAP/HRRR...KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY JUST OFFSHORE...AM
SOMEWHAT UNCOMFORTABLE MAKING A LARGE SWING TOWARD A WETTER
FORECAST THIS MORNING. SUCH IS THE NATURE OF METEOROLOGY. WE WORK
WITH INCOMPLETE DATA SETS. MOST OF THE TIME ITS SUFFICIENT...BUT
WITH LESS DEFINED SYSTEMS...WE CAN PLAY A GAME OF "CATCH UP" EVEN
IN THE VERY SHORT TERM PERIOD. LOOKS LIKE THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY
MIGHT BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY
AND GIVE AS MUCH "HEAD UP" TIME ON ANY CHANGES TOWARD A WETTER
FORECAST FOR THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES THIS MORNING.
LETS SWITCH MODES AND TALK ABOUT THE LOW EXPECTED TO ENTER THE
GULF...AND ITS POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON OUR AREA LATE TODAY INTO THE
EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO CONTINUES TO BE GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE FOCUS SHOULD NOT BE ON WHETHER
THIS SYSTEM RECEIVES A NAME OR NOT. IT DOES NOT TAKE A NAMED
SYSTEM TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND AFTER THE PAST TWO
MONTHS HERE IN WESTERN FLORIDA...ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL IS NOT WHAT WE NEED. THE WAY IT APPEARS NOW...THIS WILL
BE A VERY CLOSE CALL FOR OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY THE COASTAL ZONES.
THE GENERAL GUIDANCE CONSENSUS IS THAT THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF BY LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE/SYNOPTIC LIFT WRAPPING AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY. THE
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS JUST HOW FAR EAST THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING
EXTENDS. ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE A SIMILAR PATTERN...HOWEVER
SOME ALLOW THE INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVIER RAIN BANDS TO JUST MAKE IT
TO THE COAST OF THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA...WHILE OTHERS KEEP IT
JUST OFFSHORE. WITH THIS STILL BEING SUCH AN ILL-DEFINED
SYSTEM...IT IS SIMPLY IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WHAT
OUR COASTAL LAND ZONES WILL EXPERIENCE. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO REACH THE COAST
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...BUT NOT GO QUITE AS ROBUST/PESSIMISTIC AS
THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A GENERAL
1-2" RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT BANDS OF HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE COASTAL ZONES...ESPECIALLY FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NATURE COAST. WOULD LIKE TO WAIT JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SEE HOW
THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE HANDLES EVERYTHING...HOWEVER FLOOD
WATCHES MAY BECOME NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATER TODAY
OR TONIGHT.
ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING HAS A BETTER
POTENTIAL TO STAY TO THE WEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE HIGH PW
ENVIRONMENT...AT LEAST SCT TO NMRS DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.
THEREFORE...ALTHOUGH AREAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND DURATION OF
RAINFALL WILL BE LESS INLAND...RAIN CHANCES WILL STILL BE QUITE
HIGH.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)...
COMPLEX AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A STRONG U/L LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGING OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST OF THE AREA AS
THE U/L TROUGH OPENS UP AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THE U/L RIDGE WILL INITIALLY BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPRESS THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE GULF FROM
ADVECTING OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. GFS/ECMWF ARE FURTHER EAST
WITH SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK WITH AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SREF RETAINS A MORE VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM HOLDING THE
SURFACE LOW MUCH FURTHER WEST WHICH WOULD DELAY ONSET OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
EITHER WAY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN EARLY IN THE
LONG RANGE PERIOD WITH TIMING OF ONSET IN DOUBT. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION WITH PCPW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES
FOR SEVERAL PERIODS. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST U/L DYNAMICS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...U/L FORCING COMBINED WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. MANY RIVERS THAT HAD FINALLY FALLEN
BELOW FLOOD STAGE WILL AGAIN BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH OVER THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. COULD ALSO SEE TRAINING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE BOUNDARY SETTLES AND STALLS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND DEEP
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE BOUNDARY.
L/W TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND NORTHEAST GULF
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DECREASING POPS. HOWEVER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA WITH DAYTIME HEATING INCREASING CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WITH
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AROUND KLAL
TOWARD DAWN...NO SIGNIFICANT VIS/CIG RESTRICTION ARE ANTICIPATED
THIS MORNING. COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND STORMS WILL INCREASE BY
MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ALL TERMINALS POTENTIALLY
SEEING A PASSING STORM. LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE GULF FOR KSRQ/KTPA/KPIE
AND THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY IN FURTHER TAF PACKAGES.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ENTER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO TODAY AND THEN MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL OR
NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. MARINERS SHOULD
EXPECT INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY THAT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AS
THE LOW MOVES CLOSER...WITH PERIODS OF CAUTIONARY LEVEL CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED BY LATER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
WINDS APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS WILL BE OVER THE FAR OFFSHORE
WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK.
THE FORECAST WILL BE UNSEASONABLY WET...AND BE DEFINED BY HIGH
RAIN CHANCES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND LONGEST DURATION OF RAINFALL
THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE ALONG THE COAST...HOWEVER EVEN INLAND
AREAS WILL SEE HIGH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING PASSING STORMS.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 77 86 76 / 50 40 70 60
FMY 90 76 88 76 / 50 30 60 40
GIF 89 75 88 75 / 50 30 60 40
SRQ 87 77 85 77 / 50 40 80 60
BKV 89 74 87 73 / 50 40 70 60
SPG 88 77 86 77 / 50 40 80 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 11 pm EDT surface analysis showed a relatively strong ridge
building southward along the Piedmont, and a weak perturbation in
the easterlies across the FL Big Bend and south central GA. There
was a trough in the western Gulf of Mexico, associated with an upper
level low over east TX, and a broad area of low pressure across the
Yucatan Peninsula. While this system was being monitored for
tropical development, all of the deep moist convection associated
with it was to its east, in the northwest Caribbean Sea. There is
good agreement among the numerical guidance in bringing a portion of
this low slowly northward into the south central Gulf of Mexico
later this afternoon. Fortunately the current lack of organization
of this system, coupled with strong winds aloft, should limit
tropical development.
Deep layer moisture will increase to ample levels today. However,
any Q-G forcing will be limited to west of Tallahassee later this
afternoon, associated with the southerly mid-upper tropospheric flow
on the eastern flank of the aforementioned east TX low. We think the
GFS MOS PoPs are too high across GA today, and our PoP is much
closer to our local ECAM. Higher PoPs are also forecast across north
FL, as another perturbation in the low-layer easterlies propagates
westward late today. With mostly cloudy skies high temperatures will
"only" be in the lower to mid 80s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
It has been some time since I`ve seen a set of forecasts continue
to be low confidence along with significant consistency issues
between the models. What clarity exists this cycle is largely that
each model ended up looking like its predecessor. So, there`s
still no overarching model consensus in the short term period. The
real discernible trend is that it is becoming less likely an
organized tropical system develops. It also is looking less
certain that an organized heavy rainfall threat will materialize.
The 27/00z NAM continued to be the westernmost of the guidance, so
was largely discounted. The 27/00z GFS looks like it had some
initialization issues with the energy over/near the Yucatan and
the 27/00z Euro is on the right side of the available guidance.
With all the disagreement, opted for a forecast solution that is
heavily weighted toward the previous forecast.
Rain chances will increase steadily tonight and into Monday. The
best concentration of lift and deep layer moisture should be
present on Monday across the area. It`s difficult to pinpoint
where, so oriented the PoP forecast in a north-south gradient as
it`s entirely possible the best forcing for ascent remains to the
south over the marine area, limiting both the inland coverage
and intensity of the rainfall.
By Monday night and into Tuesday as the upper low over the Western
Gulf shifts eastward, it should start to move whatever system we
have over the eastern Gulf off to the NE of the region and
gradually wind down the rain chances. Whether this happens as
quickly as depicted in the models is still uncertain, so kept
fairly high rain chances in through Tuesday afternoon, fairly
close to the average of the models.
There still is some potential for locally heavy rainfall,
especially for areas near the coast. This is supported by the
latest ECAM run. As we move a little closer to the onset of the
event hopefully future hi-res models will offer some better
agreement on this system.
.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
With the pattern across the Eastern CONUS to amplify as a trough
moves through the Ohio River Valley and into the Mid Atlantic
States by Wednesday, expect it to swing through our region on
Wednesday night greatly diminishing rain chances. Of course
there`s the expected differences between the Euro and GFS at
longer ranges, but the overall pattern suggests a drier forecast
for Thursday through Saturday as deep layer moisture is shifted to
the south and east of the forecast area.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Monday] The GFS and NAM MOS are forecasting cigs AOB
IFR at all terminals for much of the period, while the HRRR and
other high-resolution NWP guidance has MVFR cigs. MOS has not
verified that well in this weather pattern recently, so this TAF
package follows the other guidance more closely, with mostly MVFR
cigs through the period. SHRA are expected this afternoon at KECP.
Elsewhere the PoP is too low to mention in this package, but there
will be scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA in the FL Panhandle, Big
Bend, and southeast AL.
&&
.Marine...
Expect easterly winds to continue to slowly increase today and
reach advisory levels on Monday. As an area of disturbed weather
moves over the marine area during this time, expect widespread
showers and storms. Conditions will begin to slowly improve on
Tuesday with lighter winds returning by Wednesday.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Increasing rain chances may make it difficult to perform controlled
burns through mid week.
&&
.Hydrology...
Primary focus will continue to be on the approaching storm system
and the associated heavy rain threat. High-res guidance suggests
the threat for the heaviest rainfall will be nearer to the coast
and not as far inland as indicated yesterday. As a result, storm
total rainfall amounts for this event have been adjusted. Storm
total rainfall of 3 to 4 inches is anticipated across the Florida
Panhandle and into the Florida Big Bend with isolated heavier
totals possible. Further inland, rainfall amounts should generally
be around 2 inches.
With the heavier amounts nearer to the coast, area rivers will be
able to handle this event without reaching flood stage given the
recent dry conditions. With current streamflows, we`d need several
inches of rain to get into the upper portions of many of the
larger rivers and streams to produce river flooding - which is
something we don`t see happening with this particular event.
That being said, the fact that some of this rainfall could occur
quickly and over a short time period suggests a threat for
urbanized flash flooding. With low confidence in the placement of
the heaviest rain, and the onset not expected until Monday
afternoon, will defer a flash flood watch decision to the
afternoon shift so they can hopefully better refine the threat
area with the next couple of ECAM runs.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 83 73 82 73 83 / 50 70 80 80 60
Panama City 81 74 80 75 82 / 80 80 90 80 60
Dothan 81 70 79 71 79 / 40 50 70 70 60
Albany 82 70 82 72 80 / 30 50 70 70 60
Valdosta 83 72 83 73 84 / 40 50 80 70 60
Cross City 86 73 84 74 84 / 60 60 80 90 70
Apalachicola 80 76 81 77 82 / 70 80 90 80 60
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER
PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING
IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA.
SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH
DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM
AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND
THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT.
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY
AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN
CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH.
CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING
OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER
SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY
DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY
INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY (AT OR ABOVE 20 KT) SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW. INCLUDED LLWS INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AS LOW-LEVEL WIND MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
457 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). AS SURFACE
PRESSURES GRADUALLY LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASES OVER
THE ARKLAMISS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULAR IN THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL STAY MORE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER
JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH TIMING IS PRETTY LOW
RIGHT NOW GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO DICTATE
OUR WEATHER. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH WITH RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CWA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE
RAIN. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PWAT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES
TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. PWATS WILL BE BACK BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS
INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUR PWATS WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR AND
INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR CWA...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS AND
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NORTH OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINING DRY
WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.AVIATION...SOME MORNING IFR CATEGORY STRATUS COULD STILL DEVELOP
EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR. IF SO...EXPECT IT
TO MIX UP INTO THE MVFR/VFR CATEGORIES LATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THEREAFTER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SHRA CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST NEAR
HBG LATE TODAY...AND GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. /EC/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 68 81 68 / 39 60 70 53
MERIDIAN 83 67 80 68 / 48 66 67 62
VICKSBURG 86 68 84 68 / 50 47 63 51
HATTIESBURG 85 69 83 69 / 52 58 64 51
NATCHEZ 83 68 82 68 / 53 43 60 40
GREENVILLE 86 69 83 68 / 23 40 70 53
GREENWOOD 86 67 82 67 / 27 46 70 59
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
/EC/22/
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
330 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
This morning`s water vapor imagery along with 500mb heights and
vorticity indicates a chain of weak vorticity extending from Lake
Michigan southwest into northeast and central Missouri. Weak low
level moisture convergence today, combined with this vort chain
should produce widely scattered showers across the area. All
guidance members produce widespread light qpf to a greater or lesser
extent, and explicit convective models like the NCEP and NSSL WRF as
well as the HRRR show widely scattered showers developing during the
late morning or early afternoon. MOS PoPs still look over done, so
have kept 20-30% going for now. Temperatures in the mid to upper
70s look reasonable given the warm south-southeast flow, but with
more cloud cover than yesterday to keep temperatures below 80 for
the most part.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
There is a good model consensus on northwesterly flow aloft
prevailing across our region thru at least Thursday. This will make
it very favorable for a surface cold front to drop down thru on late
Monday night or Tuesday and cooler air to infiltrate for much of mid-
week. Prior to that, it looks like above average temps to continue
thru Monday and probably into Tuesday for most areas as the cooler
air is still working its way in on that day. High pressure
associated with the cooler airmass for mid-week will then be slow to
pull out and should keep our region in near seasonable temps heading
into next weekend.
Looking at rain chances, models show a slightly less favorable setup
for showers on Monday from today, but considering how showers have
struggled since the system has weakened and moved away from its
primary moisture source in the Atlantic, will elect to maintain a
dry forecast for now. A better chance for rain looks to be on the
backside of the cold front later on Tuesday, but even then not great.
Rain chances then start to get muddled as we head deeper into the
week, especially next weekend. The models vaguely maintain the NW
flow aloft but with more significant systems potentially starting to
ride it down into our area. Location is all over the place with
little to piece a good consensus on. For now, will heavily weight
the forecast for late week and next weekend on CLIMO and favor max
temps in the 70s and slight chance PoPs until a clearer signal is
seen.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2015
Cloud deck across MO/IL will continue to rotate ewd overnight.
Still expect MVFR cigs to move into the region as the lower atmo
cools and saturates. However, timing of lower cigs is less
certain. Otherwise, winds will be aob 5 kts tonight, becoming
light and sely on Sun. MVFR cigs shud lift to VFR with some breaks
possible by 17z or so. Chances for precip remain low, but can not
rule out a brief -SHRA, mainly across srn MO/IL.
Tilly
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
138 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS.
AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE
COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE
TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO
THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST
LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING
TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.
STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS
WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z
(2AM).
STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST
VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
`DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE
HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE
SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW-
LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S.
MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z
GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE
AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AFFECTING TAF SITES MPV AND
POSSIBLY SLK. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 07Z-13Z AND POSSIBLY AT SLK FOR A SHORT
TIME. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL
INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY...WITH FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND
LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT 7-10 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
06Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-007-
010.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
111 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF WEATHER
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS SUPPORTING WILL LEAD TO PATCHY FROST IN PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST VERMONT TONIGHT. A RETURN TO WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE
OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 110 AM EDT SUNDAY...
CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING TO QUICKLY FALL IN MANY AREAS.
AS IS TYPICAL, WE ARE SEEING A LARGE RANGE OF VARIABILITY AS THE
COOL AIR DEVELOPS AND TENDS TO POOL IN VALLEYS AND "BOWLS" IN THE
TERRAIN. SOME OF THE TYPICAL COLD LOCATIONS ARE ALREADY DOWN TO
THE MID 30S, WHILE WARM LOCATIONS ARE STILL AROUND 50F. DID ADJUST
LOW TEMPERATURES HERE AND THERE BASED ON THESE QUICK FALLING
TRENDS AS SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY TO PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LOWS.
STILL EXPECT THE RATE OF FALL TO VERY SOON SLOW VERY SOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK AND INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
AS A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. 01Z RUNS OF RAP AND HRRR AS
WELL AS THE 21Z 6KM BTV MODEL SHOW THAT HAPPENING PRIOR TO 06Z
(2AM).
STILL HELD WITH THE FROST ADVISORY FOR PARTS OF EAST/NORTHEAST
VERMONT. PROBABLY SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE COLDER SECTIONS OF THE
`DACKS, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO NOT WARRANT THE
HOISTING OF A FROST ADVISORY IN THOSE SECTIONS, BUT I DID ADD TO
THE FORECAST FOR THE APPLICABLE LOCATIONS. BUT HECK, IT`S LATE
SEPTEMBER SO THESE CHILLY TEMPERATURES ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SUNDAY: RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL REMAINS IN CONTROL, BUT
BEGINS TO LOSE INFLUENCE LATER IN THE DAY. WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO WARM TO AROUND +11C AND ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE, EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY NIGHT: PATTERN CHANGE ALOFT BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT FROM
DEEP-LAYER RIDGING ALOFT TO DEEP-LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THUS, LOW-
LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING INCREASE IN MOISTURE/CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
FORECAST WILL STILL BE A DRY ONE BUT IT ALSO STANDS TO BE
CONSIDERABLY WARMER THAN THESE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S IN EASTERN VERMONT WHERE IT WILL TAKE
LONGER TO TURN OVERCAST TO THE 50S.
MONDAY: BROAD NORTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH SHOULD BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY ON MONDAY. AT THE SAME TIME,
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE FROM THE
COASTAL DISTURBANCE NOW OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES IN
ADVANCE OF A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WITH PWATS CLIMBING INTO THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE. 12Z
GUIDANCE REVIEW INDICATES THAT THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS, WHICH ARE SLOWER AND FOCUS HIGHEST POPS
INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE NAM/SREF ARE A BIT QUICKER. OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE SREF MEAN IDEA IN INCREASING POPS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AND PARTICULARLY INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT QPF TO BE
AT OR UNDER A QUARTER-INCH THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. WITH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS,
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
MONDAY NIGHT: COLD FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH THE NORTH COUNTRY
FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STARTS TO ACT ON MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF IT. OVERCAST SKIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH-CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS. WARMEST NIGHT IN THE SHORT-TERM PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS
OF +11 TO +12C AND OVERCAST SKIES SUPPORTING RATHER MILD LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT SATURDAY...BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST UNITED
STATES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE REGION ALSO ON TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...CHANGES TAKE PLACE ONCE THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA BEFORE
TRENDING TOWARD WEST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA DURING THIS PERIOD. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOCALIZED IFR/LIFR FOG/BR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT FOR ALL TAF SITES. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME FOG/BR AT MPV FROM 08Z-13Z AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY AT SLK. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD AND DRY
LOW LEVELS WILL INHIBIT FORMATION ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SOME FEW-SCT CUMULUS POSSIBLE AT
MSS/SLK. WINDS LIGHT AND LOCALLY VARIABLE TONIGHT (EXCEPT SE AT
7-9 KNOTS AT RUT) BECOME GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FROM 5-10 KNOTS ON
SUNDAY.
OUTLOOK 00Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
00Z MON - 00Z TUE...VFR WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
00Z TUE - 12Z WED...VFR WITH PERIODS MVFR IN SHOWERS WITH LOW
PRESSURE AND FRONTAL PASSAGE.
12Z WED ONWARD...VFR UNDER BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VTZ003-004-007-
010.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LOCONTO
NEAR TERM...NEILES/NASH
SHORT TERM...LOCONTO
LONG TERM...EVENSON
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
153 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SE. THE QUESTION SILL REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES
THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE
PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL AT LEAST 08Z. THE RAP LATEST RUN HAS
NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL AFTER 12Z. STILL BELIEVE PRECIP DESERVES
A MENTION BUT WILL DECREASE POPS MORE.
MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER
AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A
DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FLOW IS BACKING MORE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND DEEPER MOISTURE IS
BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW IS DOWNSLOPE THOUGH AND
LOWER CEILINGS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO FORM ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PA BUT CEILINGS 035-040 WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST OHIO THIS MORNING. A SPRINKLE OR PASSING SHOWER IS
POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF FORECASTS SINCE THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE
FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS REDUCING CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY AT TIMES.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY MORNING
MAINLY NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS
TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
ARE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND ANY 4 FOOTERS OUT THERE WILL BE
SUBSIDING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND
SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE
CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT COLD. SOME OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE THOUGH IS SUGGESTING SOMEWHAT STRONGER WINDS. THE
HIGH BUILDS IN AND DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THIS HIGH AND A
DEPARTING LOW UP THE EAST COAST...THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS WILL
BE DETERMINED. FOR NOW HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WAVES FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY TO THE POINT THAT A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS LIKELY IN
OUR FUTURE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...ADAMS/TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MULLEN/OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1134 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. PRECIP
HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED AND WHAT REMAINS IS SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA.
COULD SEE SOMETHING VERY ISOLATED DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE WRF-NAM
HINTS AT...BUT THINK THE CHANCE IS SLIM. NO OTHER CHANGES ATTM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDER HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED SOUTH OF THE
TERMINALS. QUIET NIGHT AHEAD WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU THE
TAF PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT
A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE
OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A
TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO
POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND
THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO
MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL
AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S.
LONG TERM...
A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS
IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN
HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE
COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 10 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 10 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 10 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS PUEBLO CO
415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. THE LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD
SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SOME PCPN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
OVR PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE
LOW...BUT WL PUT SOME SPOTTY 10 POPS OVR THE SW MTNS. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE WARMING BEING OVR
THE SERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.
TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST WAVE IS WITH THE GFS AND NAM...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...FURTHER SOUTH AND PRINT OUT MORE QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THAN THE EC AND
CANADIAN 00Z RUNS...WHICH ARE FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
FOR MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER THE DRIER EC AND CANADIAN FORECAST. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE MORNING WHICH BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...OWNING TO QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE
COLORADO BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY LOOK TO COOL SOME 5-10F...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NORTHWEST WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AGAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID WAVE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND
FURTHER NORTH. AT ANY RATE...SAID PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA
MAINLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE GFS AND EC CONTINUING TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION OF PASSING SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE THE GFS MAINLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EC IS WETTER
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH SAID DIFFERENCES AND NOT MUCH CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE
DATA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TACT FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. LOOK TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IN THE VCNTY OF KPUB
AND KCOS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
KALS IS EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY...
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ACROSS TX AND A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. STRONG
UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE ERN GULF IS ALLOWING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST WEST OF FL IN
AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS IN THE 2.1-2.4 INCH RANGE OF THE FL WEST
COAST. CLOSER TO HOME...CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS THIS MORNING INDICATED
PWATS FROM 1.96 TO 1.98 INCHES AT TBW AND XMR. H5/H7 TEMPS WERE ON THE
WARM SIDE AROUND -5 TO -6 DEGS AT AT 500 MBS AND +9 TO +10 DEGS C AT
700 MBS. RADAR TRENDS INDICATE ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE SE/ERN GULF OFF THE
FL WEST COAST THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING SOME BREAKS IN THE
CIRRUS ACROSS E CENTRAL/SE FL WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME HEATING TODAY
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS AS EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES TWD THE INTERIOR IN EASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5
KNOTS IN THE SFC TO 10 KFT LAYER. WILL CONTINUE POPS IN THE SCATTERED
RANGE FROM 30 PCT NEAR THE COAST TO 40 PCT FOR THE INTERIOR.
&&
.COASTAL...A MODERATE NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENT AT EAST CENTRAL FL BEACHES TODAY. THE LAST TWO HIGH TIDES
AT TRIDENT PIER AT PORT CANAVERAL HAVE REACHED 5.8 FT ABOVE MLLW...JUST
BELOW OUR LOCAL CRITERIA FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. TIDAL DEPARTURES
CONTINUE ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AS WE APPROACH THE FULL (SUPER) MOON
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE TO AGAIN HAVE ATLC TIDES REACH
THE BASE OF THE DUNES AT SOME OF OUR ATLC BEACHES.
UPCOMING HIGH TIDES...
DAYTONA BEACH SUNGLOW PIER 808 PM
PORT CANAVERAL, TRIDENT PIER 750 PM
SEBASTIAN INLET BRIDGE 803 PM
FORT PIERCE INLET SOUTH JETTY 820 PM
&&
.AVIATION...SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA WILL DVLP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE NEAR CSTL TERMINALS 16Z-18Z...AND PUSH INLAND TWD THE INTERIOR
19Z-23Z. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE... LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ATLC WATERS WILL BECOME ENE AT 5-10
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-5 FT IN A NORTHEAST SWELL.
&&
.HYDROLOGY... THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR IS AROUND 2.9 FT THIS
MORNING ABOUT 0.1 FT ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE. HIGHER THAN NORMAL
HIGH TIDES DOWNSTREAM HAVE AFFECTED THE DISCHARGE RATE BACKING UP THE
RIVER LEVEL AT TIMES. A SLOW FALL IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME HEAVIER RAIN NEAR THE BASIN MON AFTN AND TUE AFTN WHICH COULD
CAUSE MINOR RISES DEPENDING ON ANY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
VOLKMER/WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
738 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER
PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING
IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA.
SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH
DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM
AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND
THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT.
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY
AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN
CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH.
CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING
OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER
SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY
DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY
INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 737 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
CONTINUE TO HAVE A COMMS ISSUE AT IWD. THE APPROPRIATE OWNER HAS
BEEN NOTIFIED...WITH A FIX IN THE WORKS. IN THE MEANTIME AMD NOT
SKED WL BE APPENDED TO THE TAF.
WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...MRNG FOG/LO CLDS AT SAW WL MIX OUT AND
GIVE WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. THIS DAYTIME MIXING WL ALSO END LLWS AND
ALLOW FOR GUSTY SW WINDS AT THE SFC. CMX AND IWD WL BE VFR. THE
GUSTY WINDS WL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET THIS EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL
COOLING. THE RESULTANT STABILIZATION WL RESULT IN MORE LLWS TNGT.
SCT -SHRA IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FNT WL ARRIVE AT IWD AND CMX OVERNGT
TNGT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FNT...AN UPSLOPE WNW WIND WL
LIKELY BRING MVFR CIGS TO BOTH THOSE LOCATIONS. SAW SHOULD REMAIN
VFR THRU THE NGT WELL AHEAD OF THE FNT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1040 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO HANG ON OVER SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTH AND EAST CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LATE THIS MORNING. THESE WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT AND SOME BRIEF PEAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE
A BETTER BLANKET OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES NORTH FROM THE COAST.
THIS IS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
LOW...ALONG WITH CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A MID/UPPER LOW ACROSS EAST
TEXAS...HAS HELPED STREAM DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION
OVER THE COURSE OF THE LAST 12 -18 HOURS. THE 12Z KJAN SOUNDING
INDICATES 1.7 INCH PW VALUES...WHICH IS UP SUBSTANTIALLY FROM 1.1
INCHES JUST LAST NIGHT. MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
CWA AND EVEN SOUTH OF THE GULF COASTLINE BUT SHOWERS/LIGHT RAIN ARE
SLOWLY MAKING THEIR WAY NORTH INTO SOUTH/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
AND LOUISIANA. IT ISNT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON AS
SOME ADDITIONAL HEATING DEVELOPS. OVERALL...LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR
REMAIN MEAGER BUT THERE IS A SMALL AREA IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
WHERE BETTER SHEAR IS FORECAST AND COULD SEE A BRIEF STRONGER STORM
HERE WHICH IS ALSO DEPICTED IN THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
CLOUD COVER AND ANY RAIN THAT CAN MOVE NORTH WILL GREATLY LIMIT
WARMING OUTSIDE OF ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS SOME
IN THE DELTA WHERE WARMING HAS BEEN SLOWER THIS MORNING. OVERALL...WE
SHOULD STAY IN THE 80S TODAY WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES BEING IN
THE EAST AND SOUTH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN...PRIMARILY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND GOING POPS SEEM TO INDICATE
THIS WELL. ONLY OTHER ADJUSTMENTS MADE WERE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
HOURLY TRENDS. /28/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
INCREASING MOISTURE...RESULTING IN LOWERING CEILINGS AND SHRA
CHANCES...WILL BE GREATEST NEAR HBG THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
/27/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 457 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO NEAR THE CENTRAL TX COAST. DEEP CYCLONIC
FLOW IS TRANSPORTING AN IMPRESSIVE PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN REGION NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION (PRECIPITABLE WATER APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES). AS SURFACE
PRESSURES GRADUALLY LOWER AND UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT INCREASES OVER
THE ARKLAMISS...EXPECT SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
PARTICULAR IN THE TIME FRAME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. BUT IT APPEARS THAT GREATER LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINFALL WILL STAY MORE FOCUSED CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND EAST OF THE ARKLAMISS.
THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR GETTING MORE CONCENTRATED RAINFALL AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER
JET SUPPORT IS EXPECTED...BUT CONFIDENCE IN SUCH TIMING IS PRETTY LOW
RIGHT NOW GIVEN AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES TO DICTATE
OUR WEATHER. RAINFALL SHOULD GENERALLY AVERAGE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH WITH RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGESTING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
RAINFALL IN THE PINE BELT REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER THAN RECENTLY EXPERIENCED...ESPECIALLY OVER
EASTERN/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. /EC/
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MODELS AGREE THAT DECENT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR OUR CWA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES IN THE
POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING THE
RAIN. THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK EARLY THIS MORNING DEPICTS A LOW
CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS A CLOSED LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WITH A BROAD SURFACE LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF COAST. THE PWAT OVER OUR CWA WILL BE NEAR 2 INCHES
TUESDAY AND LOW PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO RAIN
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY AND WEAKEN TO AN OPEN TROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK EAST AND LOOKS TO REMAIN
PINNED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS IT SHIFTS EAST OF MISSISSIPPI BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO OUR
REGION. PWATS WILL BE BACK BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO OUR CWA FROM THE
NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY LOWERING SURFACE DEW POINTS
INTO THE 50S BY THURSDAY EVENING. OUR PWATS WILL BE DOWN TO NEAR AND
INCH BY FRIDAY MORNING. THUS...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL
STRENGTHEN BACK OVER OUR REGION. THURSDAY. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF CONCERNING SATURDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...OVER OUR CWA...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. PREVIOUS AND
LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF WITH SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN ARE NORTH OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAINTAINING DRY
WEATHER OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 85 68 81 68 / 46 60 70 53
MERIDIAN 83 67 80 68 / 48 66 67 62
VICKSBURG 85 68 84 68 / 45 47 63 51
HATTIESBURG 85 69 83 69 / 73 58 64 51
NATCHEZ 85 68 82 68 / 64 43 60 40
GREENVILLE 85 69 83 68 / 20 40 70 53
GREENWOOD 85 67 82 67 / 20 46 70 59
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
28/27/EC/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
705 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late This Afternoon)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
This morning`s water vapor imagery along with 500mb heights and
vorticity indicates a chain of weak vorticity extending from Lake
Michigan southwest into northeast and central Missouri. Weak low
level moisture convergence today, combined with this vort chain
should produce widely scattered showers across the area. All
guidance members produce widespread light qpf to a greater or lesser
extent, and explicit convective models like the NCEP and NSSL WRF as
well as the HRRR show widely scattered showers developing during the
late morning or early afternoon. MOS PoPs still look over done, so
have kept 20-30% going for now. Temperatures in the mid to upper
70s look reasonable given the warm south-southeast flow, but with
more cloud cover than yesterday to keep temperatures below 80 for
the most part.
Carney
.LONG TERM: (Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
There is a good model consensus on northwesterly flow aloft
prevailing across our region thru at least Thursday. This will make
it very favorable for a surface cold front to drop down thru on late
Monday night or Tuesday and cooler air to infiltrate for much of mid-
week. Prior to that, it looks like above average temps to continue
thru Monday and probably into Tuesday for most areas as the cooler
air is still working its way in on that day. High pressure
associated with the cooler airmass for mid-week will then be slow to
pull out and should keep our region in near seasonable temps heading
into next weekend.
Looking at rain chances, models show a slightly less favorable setup
for showers on Monday from today, but considering how showers have
struggled since the system has weakened and moved away from its
primary moisture source in the Atlantic, will elect to maintain a
dry forecast for now. A better chance for rain looks to be on the
backside of the cold front later on Tuesday, but even then not great.
Rain chances then start to get muddled as we head deeper into the
week, especially next weekend. The models vaguely maintain the NW
flow aloft but with more significant systems potentially starting to
ride it down into our area. Location is all over the place with
little to piece a good consensus on. For now, will heavily weight
the forecast for late week and next weekend on CLIMO and favor max
temps in the 70s and slight chance PoPs until a clearer signal is
seen.
TES
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 646 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2015
A broad area of VFR ceilings is blanketing the area this morning,
with patches of MVFR clouds around 2,500 FT. Any MVFR ceilings
should gradually rise through mid-late morning to VFR with at
least some partial clearing between 00Z and 15Z. Isolated showers
will also affect the area today, but I don`t expect these showers
to be heavy enouh or wide spread enough to be a serious impact to
airport operations.
Specifics for KSTL:
VFR ceilings will likely continue to prevail through much of the
day at Lambert. There are some lower clouds in the area with bases
around 2,500 FT. These MVFR clouds should lift by 15-16Z. Isolated
showers aer possible today as well...primarily in the afternoon.
Showers should be very light and will likely not cause any impact
to airport operations.
Carney
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1010 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1010 AM SUNDAY...RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SLOWLY DIMINISHING
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS INLAND WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON THE
COAST CONTINUING. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDIATES PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING INLAND DESPITE DEEPER LAYER LIFT
ABATING...AND HAVE ADDED AREAS DRIZZLE TO THE FCST AS SNDGS
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY CONTIUING THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON.
RETAINED LIKELY POPS REST OF THE DAY FOR SOUTHERN HALF AND COASTAL
AREAS.
PREV DISC...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. THIS FLOW WILL CONT TO PUMP
LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHRA EXPECTED.
HAVE POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT CST. STILL COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIF FLOODING
NOT EXPECTED TO SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONT TO HAVE MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT THIS AFTN A FEW SPOTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE. WILL REMAIN WINDY ALONG
THE OBX AND BREEZY INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FEED OF
MOIST AIR WEAKENS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. CONVERGENCE VIA
THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROF WILL STILL SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
AT THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES
FARTHER INLAND. CONT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE 27/00Z MODEL SUITE. AN INTERESTING WX PATTERN
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SAME
REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS AREA ONLY A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONG RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE
BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK LOW WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY LIFT NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
APPEARS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVOLVING INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH PWATS AGAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES.
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NEAR THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAKING
WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS TRICKY AS THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX. OTHERWISE, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THAT MAY
EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT, WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH OVERALL THEME IS
UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MED/LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY...MEANING DRYING HIGH PRES
WOULD FINALLY SETTLE INTO E NC. WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS HOWEVER...ESP
NEAR THE COAST...AS ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE
A BIT INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH AXIS BEYOND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS LED TO QUITE
A BIT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS SHLD
LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORN THEN MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OCNL
SHRA WILL CONT ESPCLY THIS MORN. TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SUB
VFR AND POSS IFR LATE AS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH LOW LVLS
REMAINING SATURATED. NE WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST AOA 20 KTS MOST OF
TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY
MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 AM SUN...WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ENOUGH TO REMOVED SCA
FROM ALL RIVERS AND ALBEMARLE SOUND...AS MODELS DO NOT INDICATE
ANOTHER SURGE IN EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE
COULD BE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 25 KT HERE AND THERE THOUGH NOT
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RETAIN HEADLINES. NO OTHER CHANGES TO OTHER
HEADLINES AS GUSTY EAST TO EAST NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH SEAS.
PREV DISC...MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE CST SO WILL DROP GALES WITH SCA ALL
WATERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THE SCA WILL GRAD COME DOWN
ON THE RIVERS. GRDNT BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES E AND WEAKENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA ALL
WTRS LATE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE PERIOD ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF OCRACOKE EARLY WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL BE 7
TO 9 FT EARLY AND DROP TO 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE/E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE.
WIND SPEEDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK
INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, WITH
STRONGER GFS INDICATING A CLOSER OFFSHORE LOW BRINGING NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS, WHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF
INDICATING SCA NE WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PREFERRED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE FOR SUPERIOR SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH ELEVATED SEAS
ALONG THE NEAR-SH0RE WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
EXTENDED RANGE WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE AS WINDS/SEAS RAMP
UP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK ABOVE STREETS LANDING AT VANCEBORO. THE LEVEL IS DROPPING A
BIT NOW WITH LOW TIDE BUT AS HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING
COULD AGAIN BRIEFLY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH WINDS LIGHTER TODAY
MAY DROP AND STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER. THE PUNGO RIVER AT
BELHAVEN HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FLOOD STAGE PAST 24 HRS, SINCE
THIS IS FROM TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE TO THE ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY
FOR OBX N OF HATTERAS THRU EARLY MON MORN WITH CONT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LARGE SURF. WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TODAY OVER SRN PAMLICO
SOUND HAVE LOWERED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR
CARTERET/CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AND CONT ADVISORY FOR
BEAUFORT COUNTY THRU THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS 3.5 FEET IN LOCAL SPOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080-
093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF/TL
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG/TL
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
657 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS WEST OF THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GULF AND OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINA COAST DURING THE MID WEEK TIME
FRAME.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...NO SIGNIF CHANGES PLANNED AS RDR SHOWS
WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS CONT TO MOVE ONSHORE
AND SPREAD INLAND. PRECIP DIMINISHES AS MOVES INLAND BUT SHLD
HOLD TOGETHER ENOUGH TO CONT LIKELY POPS INLAND TO CAT COAST.
PREV DISC...GOOD ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY BETWEEN HIGH
PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. THIS FLOW WILL CONT TO PUMP
LOTS OF LOW LVL MOISTURE ONSHORE WITH GOOD CVRG OF SHRA EXPECTED.
HAVE POPS RANGING FROM LIKELY INLAND TO CAT CST. STILL COULD SEE
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIF FLOODING
NOT EXPECTED TO SO WILL DROP FLOOD WATCH. WILL CONT TO HAVE MAINLY
CLOUDY SKIES HOWEVER MAY BRIGHTEN A BIT THIS AFTN A FEW SPOTS WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR RANGE. WILL REMAIN WINDY ALONG
THE OBX AND BREEZY INLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED AND HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL BE DECREASING TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FEED OF
MOIST AIR WEAKENS WITH ONLY WEAK FORCING ALOFT. CONVERGENCE VIA
THE WEAKENING COASTAL TROF WILL STILL SUPPORT LIKELY RAIN CHANCES
AT THE COAST AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LESSER CHANCES
FARTHER INLAND. CONT ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD
WITH LOWS 65 TO 70 INLAND AND 70 TO 75 BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SLIGHTLY BETTER CONFIDENCE THROUGH MID
WEEK WITH THE 27/00Z MODEL SUITE. AN INTERESTING WX PATTERN
DEVELOPS ON MONDAY DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRYING TO DEVELOP
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS UNDERNEATH A WEAK UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SAME
REGION. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THIS AREA ONLY A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO ELONGATE WEST TO EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION. THE STRONG RIDGE COMBINED WITH THE WEAK LOW OFF THE
BAHAMAS WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NC
WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWAT VALUES AT OR ABOVE 2
INCHES THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, A WEAK LOW WILL TRY TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT MAY LIFT NORTHEAST
OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST BY
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
APPEARS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON UPPER FEATURES THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEVOLVING INTO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A LONGWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL SHIFT EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
OVERSPREAD THE REGION, WITH PWATS AGAIN ABOVE 2 INCHES.
LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO
WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN THE WEEK. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SHIFTS NEAR THE REGION. A WEAK INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH MAY
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, MAKING
WIND AND PRECIP FORECASTS TRICKY AS THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
WILL LARGELY DETERMINE THE SENSIBLE WX. OTHERWISE, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME TIMING AND LOCATION DIFFERENCES WITH THE LOW THAT MAY
EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN FLORIDA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. DUE TO LACK OF AGREEMENT, WILL CONTINUE HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME, THOUGH OVERALL THEME IS
UNSETTLED FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS THOUGH ABOVE NORMAL FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS DUE TO CLOUD
COVER AND CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL DEWPOINTS.
FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MED/LONG RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH UPPER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT
COLD FRONT CLEARING THE AREA BY FRIDAY...MEANING DRYING HIGH PRES
WOULD FINALLY SETTLE INTO E NC. WILL RETAIN SMALL POPS HOWEVER...ESP
NEAR THE COAST...AS ENSEMBLE HEIGHT FIELDS BEGIN TO DIVERGE QUITE
A BIT INDICATING LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TROUGH AXIS BEYOND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...PLENTIFUL LOW LVL MOISTURE HAS LED TO QUITE
A BIT OF IFR OVERNIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS AND HRRR SUGGEST THIS SHLD
LIFT TO MVFR THIS MORN THEN MVFR/VFR THIS AFTN AND EVENING. OCNL
SHRA WILL CONT ESPCLY THIS MORN. TONIGHT COULD AGAIN SEE SOME SUB
VFR AND POSS IFR LATE AS WINDS CONT TO DIMINISH WITH LOW LVLS
REMAINING SATURATED. NE WINDS WILL CONT TO GUST AOA 20 KTS MOST OF
TODAY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH DECREASING PRECIP COVERAGE. ANOTHER POTENTIAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND RAIN/SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN BY
MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 645 AM SUNDAY...HAVE SEEN WINDS INCREASE A BIT CNTRL
WTRS/PAMLICO SOUND PAST HOUR OR SO AND BULK OF THE MDLS SHOWED
THIS. FOR NOW STAYING MAINLY BELOW GALE AND WILL KEEP JUST BELOW
BUT MONITOR CLOSELY NEXT FEW HRS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGES WITH CONT
VERY ROUGH SEAS TODAY PER PERSISTENT MOD/STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
PREV DISC...MODERATE TO STRONG ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY
BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND WEAK LOW TO THE S. SPEEDS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY DIMINISHING ALONG THE CST SO WILL DROP GALES WITH SCA ALL
WATERS. AS WINDS DIMINISH THRU THE DAY THE SCA WILL GRAD COME DOWN
ON THE RIVERS. GRDNT BEGINS TO RELAX A BIT MORE TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH SLIDES E AND WEAKENS WITH WINDS DIMINISHING BELOW SCA ALL
WTRS LATE.
SEAS WILL REMAIN ROUGH THRU THE PERIOD ESPCLY CNTRL AND NRN WTRS.
SEAS OF 10 TO 16 FT N OF OCRACOKE EARLY WILL ONLY SLOWLY SUBSIDE
TO 7 TO 10 FEET TONIGHT. OVER THE SRN OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL BE 7
TO 9 FT EARLY AND DROP TO 5 TO 7 FT LATER TONIGHT.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED
NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS AS PERSISTENT MODERATE NE/E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE.
WIND SPEEDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A WEAK
INVERTED/COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
ANOTHER POTENTIAL GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE WATERS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING WINDS ONCE AGAIN.
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE LOW IS STILL IN QUESTION, WITH
STRONGER GFS INDICATING A CLOSER OFFSHORE LOW BRINGING NEAR GALE
FORCE WINDS, WHILE THE SLIGHTLY WEAKER AND FURTHER OFFSHORE ECMWF
INDICATING SCA NE WINDS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS PREFERRED THROUGH THE
MEDIUM RANGE FOR SUPERIOR SPATIAL RESOLUTION WITH ELEVATED SEAS
ALONG THE NEAR-SH0RE WATERS ALONG THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS.
EXTENDED RANGE WAVEWATCH APPEARED REASONABLE AS WINDS/SEAS RAMP
UP IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COASTAL SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 230 AM SUN...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SWIFT
CREEK ABOVE STREETS LANDING AT VANCEBORO. THE LEVEL IS DROPPING A
BIT NOW WITH LOW TIDE BUT AS HIGH TIDE OCCURS LATER THIS MORNING
COULD AGAIN BRIEFLY GO ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. WITH WINDS LIGHTER TODAY
MAY DROP AND STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE LATER. THE PUNGO RIVER AT
BELHAVEN HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND FLOOD STAGE PAST 24 HRS, SINCE
THIS IS FROM TIDAL DEPARTURES DUE TO THE ENE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 230 AM SUNDAY...EXTENDED HIGH SURF AND COASTAL FLOOD ADVRY
FOR OBX N OF HATTERAS THRU EARLY MON MORN WITH CONT ONSHORE WINDS
AND LARGE SURF. WITH WINDS A BIT LIGHTER TODAY OVER SRN PAMLICO
SOUND HAVE LOWERED THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING TO AN ADVISORY FOR
CARTERET/CRAVEN AND PAMLICO COUNTIES AND CONT ADVISORY FOR
BEAUFORT COUNTY THRU THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED BY 2 TO 3 FEET...POSS 3.5 FEET IN LOCAL SPOTS.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ080-
093>095.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ136-
137.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ130.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ131.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-152-
154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG
HYDROLOGY...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON TIME. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS
WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR
SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT
COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. MID AND UPPER LEVEL BKN-OVC CLOUDS
NORTH WILL DECREASE WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KDIK AND KBIS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW AT
THIS TIME TO MENTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR EITHER SITE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
631 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS
WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR
SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT
COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AT 6 AM CDT...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY
SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA...TO NEAR THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS...TO NEAR KBIS TO NEAR KHEI. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD REACH KFAR AROUND MID-AFTERNOON.
MAINLY SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY
IN THE VICINITY OF KISN UNTIL AROUND 13Z AND AROUND KMOT UNTIL
AROUND 14Z. LATER TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS KDIK/KBIS BUT CHANCES TOO
LOW TO MENTION IN THIS 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
1041 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH MORE CLEARING HAS OCCURED ACROSS THE TN VALLEY THAN WAS
INITIALLY FORECAST...SO THE UPDATE WILL LOWER POPS AND CLOUD COVER
AND RAISE TEMPS SLIGHLY IN A FEW AREAS. LATEST HRRR AND RAP SHOW
VERY LITTLE PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY CONFINED TO SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SW VA AND SW NC. THE DOWNSLOPE WINDS AROUND 850
MB WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS FOR THE
CENTRAL VALLEY...THOUGH CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN GA MAY BE
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM HAD BEEN
BRINGING SOME PRECIP FROM GA INTO THE CHA AREA TODAY...BUT THE
LATEST RUN DELAYS THIS UNTIL TONIGHT.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THE NAM AND HRRR ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
THIS MORNING OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN PLAINS. THE LOW DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS BEING REPORTED THIS MORNING IN SOME LOCATIONS WOULD
SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL.
AN UPR RIDGE WL REMAIN OVR THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH WL
KEEP THE WEATHER DRY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SOME PCPN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING
OVR PORTIONS OF THE CONTDVD. CHANCES FOR PCPN SHOULD BE QUITE
LOW...BUT WL PUT SOME SPOTTY 10 POPS OVR THE SW MTNS. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY SHOULD BE WARMER...WITH THE MOST NOTICEABLE WARMING BEING OVR
THE SERN PLAINS. MOST AREAS WL BE AT LEAST 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE.
TONIGHT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND LOW TEMPS IN MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST MODELS KEEP MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONE EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AND ANOTHER WAVE MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS THE
PAC NORTHWEST COAST THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
HOW FAR SOUTH THE FIRST WAVE IS WITH THE GFS AND NAM...TO A LESSER
DEGREE...FURTHER SOUTH AND PRINT OUT MORE QPF ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THAN THE EC AND
CANADIAN 00Z RUNS...WHICH ARE FURTHER NORTH AND KEEP MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS
FOR MONDAY. WITH THAT SAID...HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST WHICH IS CLOSER THE DRIER EC AND CANADIAN FORECAST. FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH PASSING WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE
IN THE MORNING WHICH BACKS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...OWNING TO QUICKLY WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS SE
COLORADO BEFORE SLOWLY COOLING THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
COOL AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. TEMPS
ON TUESDAY LOOK TO COOL SOME 5-10F...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ACROSS THE REGION AS PAC NORTHWEST WAVE CONTINUES ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. AGAIN SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING AND LOCATION OF SAID WAVE...WITH THE GFS FASTER AND
FURTHER NORTH. AT ANY RATE...SAID PATTERN LOOKS TO KEEP THE AREA
MAINLY DRY...WARM AND BREEZY TO WINDY...LEADING TO POSSIBLE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO.
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WITH THE GFS AND EC CONTINUING TO SHOW RUN TO RUN DIFFERENCES IN
LOCATION OF PASSING SYSTEM. THE 00Z RUNS HAVE THE GFS MAINLY DRY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHEREAS THE EC IS WETTER
ACROSS THE AREA AND HAS THE SYSTEM DIGGING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO BEFORE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH SAID DIFFERENCES AND NOT MUCH CONSENSUS IN ENSEMBLE
DATA...HAVE KEPT CHANCE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TACT FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY. LOOK TO BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO OVER THE
SW MTS...VCNTY OF WOLF CREEK...THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS...INCLUDING
THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB AND KALS. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE MTS AFTER 21Z MONDAY.
MOORE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
247 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Cloud cover remains fairly extensive across the area today, with the
earlier breaks near the I-74 corridor quickly filling in late
morning with diurnal cumulus. A few showers have been tracking
northwest out of southern Illinois, associated with what is left of
the upper low over the Tennessee Valley.
Forecast soundings not really showing much in the way of clearing
this evening, with skies mainly partly to mostly cloudy. A feature
of interest is overnight, with the last few runs of the RAP showing
a surge of stratus advecting northeast into our area after midnight
and covering most of the state, along with some dense fog late in
the night. The latest NAM model favors more of a patchy fog
scenario, which would seem more likely given the lack of widespread
clearing plus not much of a wind field to advect the low clouds into
this area, so will continue with mention of patchy fog for now.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
While by no means certain at this point, a bit more clarity has
started to develop in the forecast for the remainder of the week.
Above normal temperatures are expected to linger for a couple more
days, then trend toward normal in the wake of Tuesday`s cold front,
with below normal temperatures possible by the weekend as some
degree of upper troffing develops across eastern North America. The
model consensus has also trended back toward a drier solution for
the week, with the best chances of rainfall occurring in the
vicinity of the frontal passage on Tuesday.
Maintained a very low chance for rainfall on Monday as weak
disturbances track northeast up the Ohio River Valley from the Gulf
of Mexico. However, the very modest forcing and instability support
little more than we are currently seeing across southern Illinois
today as far as coverage and intensity.
A cold front, currently extending from northern Ontario into the
central Plains, will sink southeast across the forecast area later
Monday night into Tuesday. This front will not have much going for
it as far as support for precipitation production. The best forcing
will remain across Canada with the faster upper-level flow, with the
best moisture bottled up with a system along the Gulf coast. So,
plan to keep PoPs on the low side with fropa, and it is entirely
possible that most locations will remain dry. However, this appears
to be our best shot for widespread rainfall this week.
A Canadian surface high builds into the area behind the cold front,
which should help shave several degrees of the daily max/min
temperatures. Aloft, the flow across North America is expected to
transition from mostly zonal to more of a troffy pattern. However,
exactly how the upper pattern will look by late week and how we`ll
get there is still very much up for debate. Model spread remain
significant, with the spaghetti plots looking much like a pile of
spaghetti. There does not appear to be a strong signal for rainfall
at any one time, although there is some consensus that it is
possible over the weekend. Expect the weekend to be more dry than
not, but there will certainly be some risk of rain. We`ll have to
see how the models eventually resolve the coming pattern shift to
pin point the threat better.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Fairly large area of IFR/MVFR conditions across the southern
quarter of Illinois at midday, spreading north-northwest.
Starting to see some scattered clouds below 3000 feet in central
Illinois as well, including some MVFR conditions at KPIA which
saw diurnal cumulus develop recently. Latest mesoscale models do
not show the low cloud shield in southern Illinois making much
further progress, but some brief MVFR conditions are possible in
our area the next few hours.
Main period of concern is overnight. Moisture surge from the south
is increasing the atmospheric moisture, and the latest RAP model
is suggesting a large area of stratus below 1,000 feet overspreading
the area from the southwest after 06Z. Probability guidance from
the SREF shows this, although a bit further west (mainly KPIA-KSTL
westward). Most of the other guidance is not that pessimistic,
but does bring at least MVFR conditions everywhere. Right now,
will lean more toward the MVFR scenario as winds stay up a bit,
but will need to watch closely. Any lower ceilings are likely to
linger until about 14-15Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Bak
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 948 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Currently seeing some temporary breaks in the cloud cover from
about Galesburg to Terre Haute, but am expecting these to fill in
over the next couple hours. Nice moisture surge occurring up the
Mississippi River valley around the circulation of an upper low
near Houston, with precipitable water values around 1.5 inches
spreading into our area, so any breaks should be filled by diurnal
clouds forming with the added moisture. Currently seeing some
scattered showers near the I-64 corridor in southeast Illinois
moving northwest, and latest high-resolution models continue to
show a few showers through the afternoon spreading into central
Illinois, so will maintain the 20% PoP`s.
No change made to forecast high temperatures, but will need to
watch this closely as the thicker cloud cover may require this to
be adjusted down a tad.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
The upper low that was over central Tennessee yesterday morning at
this time has really become diffuse on satellite data with several
weak circulations noted to our south, with little evidence any of
them are heading in our direction today. The clouds that finally
pushed into the central and northwest sections of our forecast area
late yesterday have temporarily decreased in areal coverage early
this morning. However, forecast soundings thru the day suggest quite
a bit more moisture located in the 950-850 mb layer to work with so
any breaks this morning should quickly fill in with daytime heating.
As far as precip is concerned, with the increase in low level
moisture and model data suggesting Precipitable water values of
around 1.5 inches over the entire area, isolated showers will be
possible as temps warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s this
afternoon.
High res model reflectivity simulations do show some widely
scattered showers across the area for a time this afternoon, before
quickly dissipating just before sunset. The further south into the
forecast area you go, the better the chances of seeing an isolated
shower or two this afternoon, as this particular part of the
forecast area will be a bit closer to the weak forcing associated
with what is left of the upper wave to our southeast. As a result,
will keep the slight chance wording for areas south of a Rushville
to Champaign line for mainly this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Will linger a slight chance of showers over southeast IL early this
evening with weak upper level system to our southeast. Then with
loss of diurnal influence after sunset, think dry weather will
prevail across area with patchy fog possible northern areas later
tonight into early Monday morning. Still think better chances of fog
will be further north over northern IL into WI as has been the case
the past few nights where less cloud cover. Lows tonight in the
lower 60s. On Monday continue slight chance of showers in eastern IL
from late morning into the afternoon hours with lingering influence
of weak upper level wave over the ohio river valley. Skies to trend
partly sunny on Monday with warmer highs in the lower 80s.
00Z forecast models have trended a bit quicker with cold front
pushing southward into northern IL Monday night. Have added slight
chances of showers north of Peoria overnight Monday night. Front
then slides southward across central and southeast IL on Tue with 20-
30% chances of showers. Instability appears weak with the passage of
this front on Tue and only have isolated thunder in southeast IL Tue
afternoon where better timing of front during heat of the day. Plus
shower chances appear post frontal/behind the front so thunderstorm
chances would be less than. Highs Tue range from near 70F at
Galesburg to lower 80s south of I-72 with mid 80s near
Lawrenceville. Have isolated showers southern areas Tue evening then
think we will have a dry and cooler period as high pressure settles
into the Midwest. Lows Tue night range from upper 40s to near 50F
over IL river valley, to the mid to upper 50s in southeast IL.
Cooler highs Wed in the low to mid 70s with Galesburg near or
just shy of 70F.
An upper level trof digs over the eastern states later this week and
temps to trend closer to normal during 2nd half of week with highs
in the low to mid 70s and a few upper 60s northern areas at times.
Rain chances look less with this model suite and have trimmed pops
down to either dry or just a few slight chances in mainly
western/SW areas later this week.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
Fairly large area of IFR/MVFR conditions across the southern
quarter of Illinois at midday, spreading north-northwest.
Starting to see some scattered clouds below 3000 feet in central
Illinois as well, including some MVFR conditions at KPIA which
saw diurnal cumulus develop recently. Latest mesoscale models do
not show the low cloud shield in southern Illinois making much
further progress, but some brief MVFR conditions are possible in
our area the next few hours.
Main period of concern is overnight. Moisture surge from the south
is increasing the atmospheric moisture, and the latest RAP model
is suggesting a large area of stratus below 1,000 feet overspreading
the area from the southwest after 06Z. Probability guidance from
the SREF shows this, although a bit further west (mainly KPIA-KSTL
westward). Most of the other guidance is not that pessimistic,
but does bring at least MVFR conditions everywhere. Right now,
will lean more toward the MVFR scenario as winds stay up a bit,
but will need to watch closely. Any lower ceilings are likely to
linger until about 14-15Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
356 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.DISCUSSION...
AIR TEMPS ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S LAST HOUR WITH SOME
VARIABLE WINDS...BUT MOSTLY NE WINDS 5 TO 15 MPH. OUR 88D RADAR IS
SHOWING A GOOD BOUNDARY LOW LEVEL FORCING OR COOL POOL OF 70S IF
YOUR WILL TO OUR SOUTH...MIXING WARMER AS IT MOVES NW. A FEW
SHOWERS IN OUR AREA ARE OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND SOME BETTER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER TOLEDO BEND MOVING NW IN SAM RAYBURN.
THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW IS OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
BEND...ELONGATING OVER THE COAST. VERY HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
PILING INTO THE SABINE PASS. WE WILL KEEP ON AN EYE ON THIS
PROGRESS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
VISIBLE SATELLITE HAS A GREAT DEAL MORE PANCAKING CUMULUS ALONG
I-30 NOW UNDER THE WARM NOSE...WHILE MULTI DECKS ARE PILING INTO
THE I-20 CORRIDOR ERODING THE CAP. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
OUR NEXT SOUNDING. THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OVER SW OKLAHOMA YESTERDAY
IS NOW PRETTY MUCH THE NEW BASE OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST GULF AS UNFOLDING
PATTERN REMAINS AT THIS TIME. THE MODELS CLOSE OFF THE LOW
TONIGHT WITH REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT AROUND 5780M OR SO FOR THE 500
MB LEVEL. SOME NOCTURNAL COVERAGE MAY BE POSSIBLE AROUND THE CORE
WHICH COULD BRUSH OUR SOUTHERN TIER WITH CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING
THE LOWER LEVELS.
AS LONG AS THE UPPER LOW KEEPS WRAPPING UP TO THE SOUTHWEST...THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL PILE IN...AND ERODED THE CAP. FORCING IS
FAIR TO DECENT WITH A DEEPENING SOUTHEAST FLOW BOUND TO BE
PRODUCTIVE SOMEWHERE...EVEN UNDER THE INVERSION IF IT CAN BE
LIFTED. SO WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE OVERNIGHT WITH HRRR MODEL
SPOTTY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WITH SOME ISOLATED EVEN ALONG I-30.
ALL THE MODELS AND WPC QPF LOOK ENCOURAGING.
THE OVER RAIN CHANCE LOOKS FAIR TO AWESOME FOR A LUCKY FEW AT
LEAST. HOPEFULLY...AS THE LOW WORKS BACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
AREA WE CAN MAKE MOST OF THAT NOCTURNAL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY. WE
HAVE SLIGHT TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-20 FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE LOW WRAPS UP. THE FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE DRY SLOT AND ALL THE DRY AIR OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WHICH IS SCOURING OUT THE GOOD TROPICAL MOISTURE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE WATER VAPOR WILL BE INDICATIVE AS
THE SURFACE FLOW TRIES TO HANG ON TO NE WINDS.
OUR 88D VAD IS SHOWING ENE TO 7KFT AND THEN ALL SOUTHEAST
ALOFT...HOWEVER MAINTAINING RIGHT AT THAT CAP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOMEWHAT OF AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP TYPE MAY UNFOLD IF THE CAP
ERODES WITH ONLY A SHALLOW NE SFC FLOW LEFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...THUS THE LUCKY FEW AT LEAST. OUR HOPE IS TO JUST GO AHEAD BLOW
THE DRIEST MONTH RECORD AND SEE THE WPC QPF AND MORE AS THE WARM
AND DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE FOUR STATE AREA ALL TO SOON BY
MIDWEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 70 87 70 87 / 30 50 30 50
MLU 70 85 69 86 / 30 60 30 50
DEQ 65 86 67 86 / 10 20 20 40
TXK 67 85 68 85 / 20 40 30 40
ELD 66 84 66 84 / 30 50 30 50
TYR 69 87 69 87 / 20 40 20 40
GGG 68 86 69 88 / 20 40 30 40
LFK 67 85 69 87 / 40 50 30 40
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1116 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ADD A BIT OF CLOUDS FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOST OF THE MORNING CLOUDS HAVE SLOWED HEATING A BIT FROM LUFKIN
TO SHREVEPORT...TO MINDEN AND NEAR RUSTON. UPPER 70S ARE JUST A
TAD BEHIND THE GOING 16Z FORECAST GRIDDED DATA. LEADING EDGES ARE
ALREADY CHANGING WITH HEATING ON THE FRINGES. NO CHANGES NEEDED
TO EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS AT THIS TIME...JUST PERHAPS HOW SOON WE
ARRIVE. THE SHORT RANGE HRRR MODEL IS QUITE REASONABLE WITH
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE DAY ON QPF AND CURRENT POPS REFLECT THIS
WELL. UPDATE SENT FOR SKY ONLY. WE MAY EVEN CLEAN UP MORNING
WORDING AS WE MOVE INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. /24/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
AVIATION...
INCREASED MOISTURE TODAY TO ALLOW FOR VFR CEILINGS AREA WIDE BY
28/00Z. SHOWERS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...PERSISTING THROUGH THE END OF THE TERMINAL FORECAST
PERIOD. COULD ALSO SEE MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS TXK/ELD THIS MORNING
AND LFK/MLU/ED ON MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...NORTHEAST WINDS 5
TO 8 KNOTS TO PREVAIL TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT. /05/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE SE TX COAST. A
SFC LOW IS ALSO IN THE VICINITY JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. A DEEP PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN NORTH INTO THE
REGION BY THESE TWO FEATURES. AS MOISTURE LEVELS
INCREASE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF I-30 TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AS THE UPPER LOW
TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH AND SLOWLY MOVES EAST ALONG THE
GULF COAST. BEST MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE CWA. THROUGH TUESDAY...MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE
LESS THAN AN INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL BUT THE RICH GULF MOISTURE
COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY AREAS THAT MAY
EXPERIENCE PROLONGED HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY BUT A FEW LINGER SHWRS/TSTMS CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE SRN PLAINS FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW
DAYS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT OUR FIRST FALL
COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...BOTH MODELS ARE
QUITE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE
GFS IS MUCH QUICKER AND ACTUALLY DIGS A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH
SOUTH INTO THE MID/LOWER MS VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
TROUGH MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THESE TWO SOLUTIONS PRESENT SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN PRECIP CHANCES SO WILL ONLY GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW.
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK. CLOUD COVER AND THE SHWRS/TSTMS MAY COOL TEMPS BACK INTO THE
MID 80S FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT CLEARING SKIES AND THE UPPER
RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK WARM-UP BACK INTO THE 90S BY
WEDNESDAY. /09/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 89 67 88 69 / 20 20 40 20
MLU 89 67 86 68 / 30 30 50 40
DEQ 87 65 87 65 / 10 10 20 20
TXK 88 65 87 67 / 10 20 30 20
ELD 88 65 86 66 / 20 20 50 30
TYR 91 67 88 68 / 10 20 30 20
GGG 90 66 88 68 / 10 20 40 20
LFK 86 68 85 67 / 30 30 50 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/05/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A MID/UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SW TO SE CANADA WHILE A TROF IS
PROGRESSING THRU WRN CANADA. AT THE SFC...THE TROF IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM CNTRL SD ACROSS FAR NW MN TO HUDSON BAY.
SW FLOW BTWN THE COLD FRONT AND SFC HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST HAS LED TO ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM LATE SEPT DAY
TODAY. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS MOST OF UPPER MI
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AROUND 80F. FOG/STRATUS THAT WAS OVER CNTRL UPPER MI
EARLY THIS MORNING BURNED OFF BY LATE MORNING. STRATOCU THAT WAS
OVER IL/SE WI/LAKE MI EARLY TODAY HAS SPREAD N. WHILE STILL S OF
KMNM...THE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS LED TO MORE CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND
KISQ/KERY EASTWARD. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...FOCUS WILL BE ON CLOUD TRENDS THIS EVENING
FOR VIEWING LUNAR ECLIPSE AND THEN PCPN POTENTIAL AS WRN CANADA TROF
CONTINUES EASTWARD...PUSHING SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA MON.
WITH COLD FRONT APPROACHING...MODELS SHOW WINDS IN THE APPROACHING
CLOUD BEARING LAYER (ROUGHLY 875-850MB) VEERING SOME TONIGHT.
THUS...THE DIRECTION OF MOVEMENT OF THE STRATOCU APPROACHING FROM S
SHOULD TEND TO TAKE ON MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT WITH TIME. AT
THIS POINT...IT APPEARS LOCATIONS ROUGHLY EAST OF AN IRON MTN TO
MUNISING LINE WILL HAVE THE MOST CLOUD COVER...POTENTIALLY OBSCURING
MUCH OF THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS EVENING AT A FEW LOCATIONS. NAM IN
PARTICULAR IS AGGRESSIVE IN MOISTENING LOWER LEVELS BLO STRATOCU
LAYER FARTHER TO THE W...BUT DON`T THINK THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO LOW
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVEN IF IT IS CORRECT WITH THE
MOISTURE.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE ONLY VERY
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS IN TIMING FRONT ACROSS THE AREA...
REACHING THE W EARLY MON MORNING AND EXITING THE SE LATE AFTN.
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SCT/CHC POPS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE W. BIGGER
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER THE UPPER JET CONFIGURATION WITH
RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE AND LOW/MID LEVEL FGEN UNDERNEATH
WILL BE SUFFICENT TO HELP DEVELOP A HEAVIER/MORE SOLID BAND OF SHRA
JUST BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SE ACROSS THE AREA MON. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF IMPROVED FORCING LEADING
TO AN INCREASE IN SHRA COVERAGE ACROSS AT LEAST THE SCNTRL AND ERN
FCST AREA MON AFTN. WITH THE LAST FEW HRS OF THE LATEST RAP RUN
ENDING AT 12Z MON APPEARING TO SUPPORT THAT IDEA AS IT HAS STRONGER
FORCING DEVELOPING TO THE W AT THE END OF THE MODEL RUN...WILL RAISE
POPS FOR MON...ESPECIALLY SCNTRL AND E WHERE LIKELY/NMRS WILL BE
UTILIZED LATE. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT POTENTIAL IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO
INCLUDE MENTION.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT
MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C.
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY
COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF
COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON
TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60.
CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL
TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO
CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER
GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER
BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF
FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 412 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...S TO SW WINDS ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL GUST TO AROUND 25KT TONIGHT...BUT UP TO 30KT AT THE
HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS. THE FRONT WILL CROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
TONIGHT AND MON...BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE W TO NW WITH SPEEDS
GENERALLY UNDER 20KT. AN UPTICK IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MON NIGHT/TUE
TO 20-30KT...ESPECIALLY OVER CNTRL AND EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR FLOWING OVER THE
LAKE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HIGH PRES. WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO
UNDER 15KT W TO E TUE NIGHT AS HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE UPPER
LAKES. THE HIGH PRES WILL THEN DRIFT TO THE ENE WED THRU FRI...BUT
WILL MAINTAIN RIDGING BACK INTO THE UPPER LAKES. AS A RESULT...WHILE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME...SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY 20KT OR LESS
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
159 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA MON NIGHT...BUT AN
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SOME SHOWERS THAT
MAY GRAZE FAR SERN UPPER MI IN THE FEW FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z TUE.
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY EXIT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE W AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD ON TUE. 18Z 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW 0C...WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHS IN THE
MID 50S TO AROUND 60. NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25MPH NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AND E WILL MAKE THAT FEEL A BIT CHILLIER. WILL INCREASE
CLOUD COVER OVER THE E NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
SHOULD RESULT...BUT WILL ALSO SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE
AFTERNOON AS HIGH AIR CONTINUES TO INTRUDE.
THE SFC HIGH MOVES OVER TUE NIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS REMAIN AROUND 0C.
PWATS DROP TO AROUND 0.25 INCHES AND WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...SO
RADIATIONAL COOLING AFTER AN ALREADY COOL DAY WILL MAKE FOR VERY
COLD LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S...COLDEST INTERIOR OF
COURSE. WILL NOT MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AS
VALUES ARE ON THE LOW END OF GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FROST
APPEARS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...EVEN SOME SHORELINE AREAS.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE E ON WED...AS WILL THE 850MB THERMAL
TROUGH...ALLOWING FOR 1-2 DEGREE WARMER MAX TEMPS THAN ON
TUE...HIGHS AROUND 60.
CONTINUED TO NOTE WHAT THE PREVIOUS SHIFT SAW IN MODEL
TRENDS...DRYER WEATHER FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. CAN NOT BE TOO
CONFIDENT...THOUGH...GIVEN VERY POOR RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IN THE
PATTERN OVER THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS. WILL CONTINUE TO RELY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...WHICH WILL TREND THE FORECAST DRYER. TEMPS LOOK
TO TOP OUT IN THE 60S FOR THE LAST HALF. MIN TEMPS WILL BE TRICKIER
GIVEN THE GREATER RELIANCE ON CLOUD COVER...WHICH IS QUITE
UNCERTAIN...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE WED NIGHT WILL BE COLDEST WITH LOWS
POSSIBLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND WARMER NEAR THE SHORE.
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FROST WED NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO GET CLOSER
BEFORE ADDING THAT TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF
FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW A PERSISTENT UPR
RDG STRETCHING FM THE DESERT SW INTO THE GREAT LKS AND SE CANADA.
SFC RDG AXIS EXTENDING W FM HI CENTER NEAR NEW ENGLAND AND DRY MID
LVLS SHOWN ON LOCAL RAOBS IS BRINGING MOCLR SKIES/DRY WX TO THE CWA
EARLY THIS MRNG. 00Z GRB/APX RAOBS DID SHOW SOME RELATIVELY SHALLOW
MSTR UNDER SUBSIDENCE INVRN...SO SOME PATCHY FOG/LO CLDS HAVE FORMED
OVER MAINLY THE SCNTRL CWA WITH LLVL SSE FLOW OFF LK MI. WHERE THIS
LLVL FLOW IS DOWNSLOPING OVER THE FAR W...TEMPS ARE NEAR AN
UNSEASONABLY WARM 60 DEGREES DESPITE MOCLR SKIES. LOOKING FARTHER TO
THE W...SOME HI CLDS ARE ROLLING E THRU MN WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD
FNT MOVING E THRU MANITOBA AND THE NRN PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF A RATHER
SHEARED SHRTWV NOW PUSHING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. OF GREATER INTEREST
IS AREA OF HI BASED SC OVER THE LOWER LKS THAT IS MOVING NWD THRU
SRN LK MI/SW LOWER MI/SE WI.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS DURING THE SHORT TERM ARE FOG/LO CLDS THIS
MRNG...HOW FAR TO THE NW AREA OF CLDS IN THE LOWER LKS MIGHT SPREAD
AND POPS LATE TNGT AHEAD OF COLD FNT NOW IN THE NRN PLAINS/SCENTRAL
CANADA.
TODAY...WITH LENGTHENING NIGHT AND LLVL MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z
GRB/APX RAOBS...EXPECT FOG/LO CLDS OVER THE SCENTRAL CWA TO EXPAND
EARLY THIS MRNG BEFORE DISSIPATING BY LATE MRNG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. MOST OF THE SHORTER TERM MODELS INDICATE AREA OF HIER H85
RH ASSOCIATED WITH SC MOVING TO THE N WL AT LEAST BRUSH THE SE CWA.
AFTER THE MRNG FOG/STRATUS DSPT...EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL
CU/SC TO IMPACT THE SE COUNTIES AS SOME OF THIS MSTR ADVECTS OVER
THE AREA. WHERE SKIES WL BE MOSUNNY OVER THE NW HALF...H85 TEMPS
RISING TO ARND 14C WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 70S AND EVEN
THE LO 80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP. WITH MORE CLDS AND
THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK MI OVER THE SE...MAX TEMPS THERE WL HOLD
NEAR 70. THE GREATER HEATING OVER ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF WL MIX 25-
30 KT WINDS TO THE SFC...RESULTING IN WIND GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 25 MPH.
IN CONCERT WITH MIN RH FALLING TO ARND 40 PCT...THESE GUSTY WINDS WL
AGGRAVATE FIRE WX CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
SGNFT RAIN RECENTLY.
TNGT...AS RATHER SHEARED OUT SHRTWV NOW MOVING INTO THE NRN ROCKIES
MOVES ALONG THE CNDN BORDER AND TO NRN MN/ADJOINING ONTARIO BY 12Z
MON...SFC COLD FNT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE WRN CWA ARND 12Z.
SHEARED NATURE OF THE DISTURBANCE...ARRIVAL OF THE FNT DURING PERIOD
OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...WEAKER UPR DVGC THAN INDICATED BY SOME RECENT
MODEL RUNS AND MARGINAL MSTR RETURN AHEAD OF THE FNT WL LIMIT POPS
INTO THE CHC RANGE AND ACCOMPANYING RA TOTALS. THE SE HALF OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY. AS FOR VIEWING THE LUNAR ECLIPSE THIS
EVNG...AREAS AWAY FM THE AT LEAST THE SE HALF OF THE CWA SHOULD
REMAIN MOCLR IN THE EVNG BEFORE MORE CLDS ROLL IN AFTER MIDNGT AHEAD
OF THE APRCHG COLD FNT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE AT
SPREADING THE LLVL MSTR INTO THE CENTRAL...BUT VEERING SFC-H85 FLOW
FCST BTWN 00Z-06Z SHOULD LIMIT THE NW EXPANSION OF THIS MSTR/CLDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER CNTRL CANADA DROPS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY THEN SLIDES OVER QUEBEC ON WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS REBOUND
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO SCNTRL CANADA. AT THE SFC...COLD FRONT
WORKS ACROSS UPR LAKES ON MONDAY IN A WEAKENING FASHION AS STRONGER
PART OF THE FRONT STAYS OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO. SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
BAND OF BROKEN SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WITH MOST OF THE MOISTENING
IN THE H8-H7 LAYER WITHIN A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF THE FROPA.
SINCE THE FRONT IS WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER CWA...RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND LIGHT. DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT OVER
EAST AND SOUTH CWA IN THE AFTN...00Z GFS AND GEM-REGIONAL HAVE
TRENDED BACK TO SHOWING QPF BREAKING OUT MONDAY EVENING WITH ARRIVAL
OF SECONDARY SHORTWAVE AND H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND ADDITIONAL
LIFT PROVIDED BY DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF JET
STREAK FM NORTHERN ONTARIO TO NORTHERN QUEBEC. EVEN THOUGH NAM SHOWS
SIMILAR LARGER SCALE DYNAMICS THAT GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW...NAM IS MUCH
DRIER BLO H7 AND DOES NOT GENERATE QPF BEYOND 00Z TUE ANYWHERE IN
THE CWA. THOUGH THINK THE NAM IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
OVERALL DRYING WORKING IN FM THE NORTHWEST AS STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING STILL PRESENT ON MONDAY NIGHT. A COMPROMISE BTWN THE GFS/GEM
AND DRIER NAM WITH SMALL CHANCE POPS OVER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST CWA
MONDAY EVENING SHOULD WORK ATTM. CAVEAT IS THAT THE MODEL
CONSISTENCY FOR MONDAY NIGHT HAS BEEN POOR TO SAY THE LEAST AND
THERE COULD BE MORE CHANGES EVEN THOUGH IT IS ONLY 36-48 HOURS OUT.
CANADIAN HIGH SLIDES FM THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
MAY MOVE IN LATE OVER LK SUPERIOR AND FAR NORTH CWA. SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY CLEAR THOUGH. PWATS DOWN TO 0.25 INCHES AND LIGHT WINDS WITH
THE HIGH POINT TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. APPEARS MOST AREAS
WILL SEE THEIR FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE TUE NIGHT INTO WED
MORNING. TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR SHOULD FALL INTO THE 20S TO LOW
30S. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS SHIFT IN LOWERING TEMPS AND HAVE TWEAKED
DOWN A BIT MORE. WITH THE HIGH DIRECTLY OVERHEAD AND SUCH AS DRY
AIRMASS...EVEN SHORELINE AREAS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES COULD SEE AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST.
REST OF THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST IN THE LATEST MODEL RUNS...LOOKS DRY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST BUT STAYS IN CONTROL OF WEATHER OVER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL AIRMASS SHOULD ALSO STAY IN
CONTROL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S FM WED INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. LIGHT BUT STEADY ESE-SE WINDS ON WESTERN EDGE OF THE
HIGH SHOULD KEEP LOWS FM GOING AS LOW AS TUE NIGHT THOUGH.
CONSISTENCY IN THIS DRY PART OF THIS SOLUTION IS LACKING THOUGH AS
PREVIOUS RUNS IN LAST COUPLE DAYS WERE MUCH MORE EMPHATIC ON
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN BACK TO UPPER GREAT LAKES AS EARLY
AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CERTAINLY THU INTO FRI. MODELS SHOW NOTHING
OF THE SORT NOW. AS MUCH AS WE COULD USE THE RAIN...THE DRIER
SCENARIO DOES SEEM MORE PLAUSIBLE WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RESULTING EASTERLY WINDS FLOWING OUT OF THE HIGH
OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH PRECIP DEFICTS ALREADY PUSHING 2
INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF ESPECIALLY CNTRL UPR MICHIGAN FIRE WEATHER
ISSUES WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. WILL HAVE TO KEEP WATCH OUT FOR ANY
DAYS IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS. ONCE LEAVES BEGIN TO COME OFF THE TREES THE HAZARD WILL ONLY
INCREASE UNTIL A WIDESPREAD RAIN MATERIALIZES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
THRU THE AFTN AND INTO TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. BUILDING MIXED LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
GUSTY S TO SW WINDS TO AROUND 20KT THIS AFTN. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING. THE RESULTANT
STABILIZATION WILL RESULT IN LLWS DEVELOPING AT ALL TERMINALS.
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING
AND EARLY AFTN...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL OF -SHRA. AROUND THE TIME OF
FROPA OR JUST AFTER...EXPECT A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS. SHOULDN`T LAST
MUCH MORE THAN A FEW HRS AT EACH TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 351 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 25 KTS INTO TONIGHT AHEAD OF
COLD FRONT THAT CROSSES LK SUPERIOR ON MONDAY. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST UP TO 20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT BY MONDAY AFTN.
WINDS BECOME LIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES OVERHEAD. EXPECT THE HIGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE EAST THE REST OF
THE WEEK WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT LESS THAN 20 KTS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
AS OF 3PM THIS AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS JUST
NORTHWEST OF ALEXANDRIA. BASED ON LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE AND
CURRENT POSITION...SLIGHTLY SLOWED THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN THE GOING FORECAST...BY JUST
AN HOUR OR TWO. AS FAR AS CLOUD COVER FOR VIEWING THE ECLIPSE IS
CONCERNED...STILL LOOKS LIKE A FEW CLOUDS COULD REACH THE METRO
CLOSER TO 11PM-12AM...BUT SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
VIEWING. THE LATEST HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
CLOUD COVER. BASED ON ITS TREND...AREAS FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH
ST CLOUD AND WEST OF THERE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH CLOUDY SKIES
DURING THE ECLIPSE.
SOME OF THE CAMS SHOWED DECENT AGREEMENT IN KEEPING THE
MINNESOTA PORTION OF THE FA DRY TONIGHT...WITH THE MOISTURE
FINALLY ENOUGH IN WESTERN WI AFTER MIDNIGHT TO SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP...THEN LIGHTING UP THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITION SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM WEST CENTRAL WI NEAR EAU
CLAIRE...THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MN /NEAR ALBERT LEA/. NAM SHOWED
BEST LI`S BECOMING NEGATIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF CAPE...ENOUGH FOR ADDING A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG HIGH WILL BE POISED TO PLUNGE INTO OUR AREA
WITH RAPID DRYING AND CLEARING SKIES IN CENTRAL MN BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. THE DROP IN DEW POINTS WILL LAG A BIT BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT BY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON...DEW POINTS WILL BE NEAR
40 NEAR ALEXANDRIA...WITH UPPER 40S DEW POINTS WORKING INTO THE
METRO...MAKING IT FEEL MUCH MORE LIKE FALL BY THE END OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
ONE THING THAT HAS NOT CHANGED IN THE EXTENDED IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ANY OF THE MODELS AS SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THE MAIN POLAR JET WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT
RETREATS TO THE NORTH UP ACROSS THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WITH A WEAK
SUBTROPICAL JET SLIDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CONUS. THIS WEAKENING
OF THE JETS RESULTS IN A WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN IN WHICH THE GUIDANCE
IS STRUGGLING TO HANDLE WHERE UPPER HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE CUT-OFF FROM
THE FLOW. IN GENERAL THOUGH THE DEFINITE TREND WE HAVE SEEN WITH THE
MODELS IS THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE DRY. THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER HUDSON BAY INTO QUEBEC AS A CLOSED HIGH DEVELOPS
OVER NRN MANITOBA INTO NW ONTARIO. THIS BECOMES THE PERFECT UPPER
AIR SETUP FOR DEVELOPING A HUDSON HIGH AT THE SFC...WHICH IS WHAT
BOTH MODELS SHOW. THIS WILL KEEP US IN A VERY DRY SE FLOW MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK...KEEPING THE PRECIP WEST AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY WAS
TO START CONSIDERABLY CUTTING BACK POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THOUGH IF THE 00Z MODELS CONTINUE DOWN THE SAME
ROAD...WE COULD PROBABLY CUT THEM EVEN FURTHER WITH THE NEXT UPDATE.
FOR THE FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...THERE STILL LOOKS
TO BE LINGERING PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT. THE 12Z MODELS THOUGH ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THAT AREA OF PRECIP OUT OF THE AREA
PRETTY QUICK MONDAY EVENING...SO WENT PRETTY MUCH DRY WITH THE
FORECAST AFTER 3Z TUESDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT...WE WILL SEE A COOL
AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING DOWN FROM CANADA. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
FALLING BACK INTO AT LEAST THE 30S AND WE WILL LIKELY MIX SOME 20S
DOWN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH WILL LEAD TO OUR COOLEST MORNING
OF THE FALL THUS FAR WEDNESDAY MORNING AS WRN WI /CLOSEST TO THE
HIGH CENTER/ WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS DROP INTO THE LOW/MID 30S...WITH
THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON LOOKING LIKE A POSSIBILITY OUT AROUND
LADYSMITH. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK...OUR H85 TEMPS LOOK TO HANG OUT
BETWEEN +4 AND +8C WHICH TRANSLATES NICELY TO HIGHS IN THE 60S.
BEING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HUDSON HIGH...WE WILL ALSO SEE COOL
MORNINGS...WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S EVERY
NIGHT...WITH MORE CHANCES FOR FROST COMING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
RIDGE AXIS SETS UP ON A NIGHTLY BASIS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS PERIOD IS THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...SET TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. TIMED WIND SHIFT TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT BASED ON
LATEST GUIDANCE AND FRONT POSITION...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN THE
TAFS. EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA...WITH BKN CLOUDS
AROUND 5K FEET. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY TOMORROW BEHIND THE
FRONT...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING SHOULD IMPROVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
KMSP...THE FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH CLOSE TO 12Z MONDAY...WINDS
TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT FIRST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY. LOW CHANCE
OF PRECIP...COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT IMPACTING MSP WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THE
TAF.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. N WIND 5-10KT.
WED...VFR. SE 5-15KT.
THU...VFR. SE 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
318 PM MDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR MON AND TUE...
HEIGHTS STILL FALLING ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES FROM ALBERTA INTO SASKATCHEWAN. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
NORTHERN MONTANA WITH THIS TROUGH MOVEMENT IS BRINGING EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWS
MOISTURE MOVING OVER THE AREA BUT DEEPER TAP IS OVER WYOMING AND
CURRENT RADAR DOES SO ANY PRECIPITATION IS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OVER THE PARK AND THE BIG HORNS. WITH DEWPOINTS ON THE
RISE HRRR CONTINUES TO INDICATE CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE OVER
SOUTHERN MONTANA AND LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER 9 PM.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS TIMING MAY IMPACT LUNAR ECLIPSE VIEWING FOR
PEOPLE.
MONDAY IS MOSTLY DRY WITH A CONTINUED COOLING TREND WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING WEAKLY OVER THE AREA. MONDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS BECOMES POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA AND MOISTURE IS
PULLED INTO THAT AREA AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS. STILL NOT A BUNCH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED.
TUESDAY HEIGHTS BUILD UPSTREAM WITH DOWNSLOPE SURFACE FLOW
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BRING A REBOUND IN TEMPERATURES AND DRYING
BUT NO WHERE NEAR THE SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS SEEN EARLIER THIS
WEEKEND. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
EXTENDED DETERMINISTIC MODELS WERE SHOWING AGREEMENT EARLY...WHILE
THE EURO ENSEMBLES CONTINUED TO SHOW UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND THE GEFS SHOWED GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL 00Z
FRI. NOTED THAT DETERMINISTIC MODELS START FALLING OUT OF
AGREEMENT ON FRI WITH POTENIALLY POTENT APPROACHING WEST-COAST
SYSTEM.
UPPER RIDGING SHOULD DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... TO
THEN BE REPLACED BY PACIFIC TROUGH WHEN MODEL QPF BEGINS TO
INCREASE WITH ASSOCIATED FORCING IN WESTERN ZONES. THE TROUGH WILL
FORM AN UPPER LOW THAT SHIFTS SE DURING FRI... WITH TRENDING
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SAME DIRECTION. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED POPS ARE PRESENT IN THE GRIDS TO COVER THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST THE AREA ON THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TRACK SHOULD BRING
COOLER WEATHER INTO THE AREA GRADUALLY... AS THE FRONTAL COMPLEX
AND SFC LOW ALSO REMAINS FURTHER SOUTH.
GFS SOLUTION HAS MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND QPF IN FAVOR OF AT LEAST
SOME MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON BUT EURO IS
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND DRIER IN THE SAME PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION
BRINGS AN UPPER LOW ONTO THE CENTRAL CA COST...WHILE THE GFS HAD
THE LOW NEARBY BUT MUCH WEAKER..WITH DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IN THE
EURO LIKELY THE SOURCE OF WARMER TEMPS. BOTH MODELS THUS HAD VERY
DIFFERENT VERSIONS OF FLOW OVER THE REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SW IN THE EURO AND SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IN
THE NW FLOW FROM THE GFS... BUT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WAS DRY IN
BOTH MODELS. MROWELL
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL TODAY OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS AND
NE BIG HORNS LATE IN THE DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR S AND E OF A KLVM TO KBIL TO FORSYTH LINE
THIS EVENING. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE E AND SE OF KBIL
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE LOCALIZED TO AREAS OF OBSCURATION OVER
THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKAS AND NE BIG HORNS TONIGHT. ARTHUR/BORSUM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 049/068 046/078 051/081 053/072 051/065 047/059 041/063
10/B 00/U 01/U 35/W 53/W 22/W 11/B
LVM 041/069 042/078 046/081 048/068 046/064 044/058 039/062
10/U 00/U 01/B 34/W 32/W 22/W 22/W
HDN 047/070 044/079 048/084 050/076 048/067 045/062 041/068
10/B 01/B 11/U 35/W 52/W 22/W 11/B
MLS 049/068 044/077 048/081 052/077 050/066 046/063 042/066
31/B 01/B 11/U 25/W 43/W 22/W 11/B
4BQ 050/066 046/077 049/082 051/076 049/067 046/064 043/068
21/E 01/B 21/U 13/W 54/W 22/W 21/B
BHK 047/064 043/072 047/078 049/073 048/064 044/062 041/064
42/W 01/B 21/U 23/W 44/W 21/B 11/B
SHR 046/069 043/079 047/082 048/075 048/067 042/063 039/068
21/B 11/B 11/B 24/W 33/W 22/W 11/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA
MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...SHOWERS STILL STREAMING ONSHORE AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE AROUND AT
FIRST AS WELL AS THE VISIBILITY IN THE SHOWERS...HOWEVER THINGS WILL
SETTLE IN AS IFR AT ALL TERMINALS IN 3-5 HOURS FROM NOW...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES DRY AIR IN THE MID
LAYERS BY DAYBREAK...SO DO NOT THINK SHOWERS WILL BE AS PREVALENT TOMORROW.
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS MOST OF THE EVENING...DIMINISHING
SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT. MONDAY...SLOWLY RISING CEILINGS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THERE MAY EVEN SOME BREAKS IN THE CEILINGS...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. GOOD CHANCE FOR VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TUESDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...43
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
327 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. THE SURF ZONE WILL REMAIN DANGEROUS
THROUGH MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO THE AREA
MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT
KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR SCZ054-056.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR NCZ106-108-110.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RGZ/RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
323 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST AND THEN FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT OUT DURING MONDAY. A FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THEN STALL JUST OFFSHORE LATE WEEK. DEEP MOISTURE STREAMING
NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY BRING A WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT TO
THE AREA MID WEEK. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE ARE
EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE LATE WEEK
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KT ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KT OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY AND MAY EVEN MOVE ONSHORE FOR A TIME ON MON BEFORE FINALLY
LIFTING OUT DURING TUE. VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...99TH
PERCENTILE...REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON MON WITH SOME SLIGHT DRYING
ON TUE AS THE PREVAILING LOW-LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN EASTERLY
FOR DAYS...BECOMES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. NORMALLY...THIS WOULD SIGNAL
A CHANCE TO DRY OUT AND ALLOW FOR MORE IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE STREAMING
NORTHWARD AS TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE MAKES A RUN FOR THE NE GULF
COAST. THIS MAY NECESSITATE EVEN HIGHER POPS FOR TUE THAN ON
MON AND OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
THUS...WILL BE KEEPING POPS ELEVATED AND AS HIGH AS LIKELY AND
INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TUE/TUE NIGHT AS
MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES BEGIN TO INCREASE IN DEEPENING SW FLOW AND
WE BEGIN TO SEE SIGNIFICANT LIFT DEVELOP THROUGH A MUCH DEEPER
LAYER LATE IN PERIOD AND ON WED.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH FORESEE MORE IN
THE WAY OF BREAKS OF PARTIAL SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AS COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AS WEDGE WEAKENS AND IS DISPLACED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE...TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT AND
WILL FORECAST MORE WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR HIGHS BOTH DAYS. LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE
DOMINATED BY WEAK TROUGHING AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN
U.S. THE GUIDANCE IS WAVERING BETWEEN CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING IN THE EAST OR WEAK TROUGHING. REGARDLESS AT THE
SURFACE...MASSIVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WELL TO THE NORTHEAST
AND REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE WHICH NEVER GETS SWEPT OUT INTO THE
ATLANTIC RETROGRADES SLIGHTLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST
POPS OCCUR WEDNESDAY AS A 500MB TROUGH MOVES ACROSS PICKING UP
LINGERING MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SLOWLY BY LATER THURSDAY
WITH SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
OVERALL THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY LIMITED
DIURNAL RANGES WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
DRIZZLE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS
ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING
MVFR AT KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT
KILM AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
MON THEN SLOWLY LIFT OUT DURING TUE. THE EASTERLY FLOW AROUND
STRONG NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD WEAKEN MON AS
THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT PROPAGATES NORTH. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY DURING TUE AND TUE NIGHT...BUT
THE FLOW WILL BE WEAK. THE 10 TO 11 SECOND EASTERLY SWELL WILL
REMAIN SIGNIFICANT INTO TUE AND THIS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED.
HOWEVER...THE WEAKER WINDS SHOULD ALLOW SEAS TO DROP ABOUT A FOOT OR
SO. WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS UP TO
4 TO 5 FT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS MON WILL DROP TO 2 TO 4 FT THROUGHOUT BY TUE.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...LIGHT WIND FIELDS EARLY ON WILL GIVE WAY TO
A BETTER DEFINED NORTHEAST FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY. ESSENTIALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY BEFORE A
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. BEYOND THIS A NORTHEAST FLOW OF 10-15
KNOTS DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO 15-20 BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL INCREASE FROM 2-4 FEET
WEDNESDAY TO 4-7 FEET LATER THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR
A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS
WILL IMPACT THE BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER
AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT
ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT
ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT.
THE NEXT HIGH TIDE FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM
THIS EVENING AND FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10
PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM
THIS EVENING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR PENDER
AND NEW HANOVER COUNTY BEACHES INTO TONIGHT AND FOR ALL BEACHES
ON MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ054-
056.
NC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108-110.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
TONIGHT FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...RGZ/MRR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
306 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BEFORE A
COLD FRONT BRINGS A DRYING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK. PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALONG WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...RADAR SHOWING DECENT PUSH OF RAIN SHOWERS FROM
CAPE FEAR NORTHWARD WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS STREAMING INLAND FROM
SURF CITY TO ELIZABETHTOWN. THIS COINCIDES WITH THE STRONGEST ON
SHORE PUSH OF WINDS AND GREATEST LIFT. TO THE SOUTH FROM THE TIP
OF CAPE FEAR TO THE GRAND STRAND AND MOVING INLAND...BREAKS IN
CLOUDS WERE VISIBLE ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THICK CLOUD
COVER FARTHER INLAND...MAINLY WEST OF I95 AS WEDGE HOLDS ON. THE
BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SOME GREATER MIXING BRINGING DOWN
SOME STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWING UP TO 20 TO
25 KTS ABOVE RADAR AND SOUNDINGS TO THE NORTH OVER THE CAPE FEAR
COAST SHOW WINDS AROUND 30 KTS OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 3K FT.
OVERALL ANOTHER DAY OF MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES WITH THE CHANCES FOR
PATCHY RAIN/DRIZZLE WELL INLAND AND SHOWERS PUSHING FARTHER
INLAND. GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE ALONG AND NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR COAST.
LOOKS LIKE A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFF THE COAST TO A BROADER AREA TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SAME TIME
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS DOWN FROM THE NORTH RUNNING ALONG THE LEE OF
APPALACHIANS. THE SHALLOW RELATIVELY COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND
WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVERRUN BY PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN A MORE TYPICAL
WEDGE-LIKE PATTERN INLAND. CLOSER TO THE COAST...WINDS AT THE
SURFACE HAVE COME AROUND TO A MORE E-NE FLOW WITH SOME LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ENHANCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND PRODUCING MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE PCP. HRRR SHOWS THE SHOWERS PROGRESSING INLAND
WITH BETTER DIMINISHING COVERAGE NORTH OF CAPE FEAR HEADING INTO
THIS EVENING.
THIS FETCH OF MOISTURE WAS MORE PREVALENT IN THE LOW LEVELS WHILE
THE MORE WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WERE PROVIDING SOME DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE MID LEVELS. THE DEEP LOW OVER THE GULF COAST WILL
PROVIDE A STREAM OF MOISTURE INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH A GENERAL
INCREASE IN THE OVERALL MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. ALTHOUGH IT DOES
DEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT...THE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FETCH
OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL BE THE MAJOR PLAYER IN PROVIDING PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND CHC OF PCP THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW WILL ACT TO
PULL THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST WESTWARD. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...AS YOU MOVE FARTHER INLAND THE GREATER NORTHERLY FLOW
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF DRIZZLE THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE
THE COASTAL AREAS MAY GET A BREAK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A
GREATER NOCTURNAL PUSH OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT ONCE AGAIN. NOT
EXPECTING ANY GREAT QPF ASIDE FROM LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS.
DO NOT EXPECT A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE IN TEMPS WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
NOT DROPPING BELOW 70 MOST PLACES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... THE SHORT TERM PERIOD APPEARS TO BE A
CONTINUATION OF ONE OF THE LONGER CLOUDY STRETCHES WE`VE SEEN IN A
WHILE. MONDAY KEEPS THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW OF MOISTURE LOCKED INTO
THE AREA WITH SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND A GOMEX IMPULSE TO
BRING SOME WEAK PVA. THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE BOLSTERED FROM RECENT
DAYS BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT NHC IS GIVING A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE OF ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS
(THOUGH WORTH NOTING THAT IT WILL NOT APPROACH LAND). THE PREVALENCE
OF CLOUD AND PERHAPS LIGHT RAIN MAKING THE COOLER GFS-BASED MOS MORE
APPEALING THAN THE WRF-BASED. THE ONSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND TURNS TO
SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY. ALSO SOME MOISTURE AND VORTICITY CENTERS
STREAM OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CAROLINAS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER CLOUDY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
HIT 80 AND SOME LIGHT RAIN IN MANY PLACES...WITH PERHAPS SOME HIGHER
QPF WELL INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PRECEDE A COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY OR AT NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY
DECELERATES SOME AND MAY STILL BE CLOSE BY ENOUGH TO BRING A FEW
SHOWERS THURSDAY MAINLY OVER EASTERN ZONES. COOL AND DRY ADVECTION
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS NEAR
60/UPPER 50S BUT ALSO THE FIRST SUNSHINE THE AREA HAS EXPERIENCED IN
QUITE A WHILE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...WITH A MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS IFR CIGS ARE
OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON AT KFLO/KLBT WITH MVFR/TEMPO VFR AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KILM WHERE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS/TEMPO IFR IS OCCURRING. EXCEPT FOR CIGS BECOMING MVFR AT
KFLO/KLBT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO EXPECT THESE GENERAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IFR SHOULD BECOME LESS LIKELY AT KILM AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
CIGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING...AND OVERNIGHT IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
RE-DEVELOP. PATCHY GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. CIGS SHOULD RISE TO MVFR COASTAL TERMINALS
BY MID MORNING WITH IFR PERSISTING AT KFLO/KLBT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...IMPROVING CONDITIONS MONDAY WITH DETERIORATING FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS TEMPO MVFR PERSISTING
INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WATERS
AMZ250...CONTINUED INTO EARLY MON MORNING WITH HIGHEST SEAS IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS. LONGER PERIOD UP TO 11 SECONDS EASTERLY
SWELLS EVIDENT AT FRYING PAN BUOY ALONG WITH TIGHTENED GRADIENT
FLOW...PRODUCING A RISE IN SEAS ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS FROM CAPE
FEAR NORTHWARD.
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE US COAST IN COMBINATION WITH HIGH
PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM NEW ENGLAND WILL KEEP UP A STEADY
STIFF E TO NELY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. DUE
TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OFF THE COAST...WINDS
AND SWELLS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL MAINTAIN A MORE EASTERLY FETCH
WHILE SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR OVER MUCH OF THE SC COAST WINDS WILL BE
MORE NORTHERLY AND IN SOME CASES MORE OFF SHORE. THEREFORE SEAS
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR WILL CONTINUE TO RUN THE HIGHEST. FOR NORTH OF
CAPE FEAR AND OUTER WATERS IN THE OFF SHORE AMZ252 ZONE...EXPECT 5
TO 7 FT SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH WINDS HIGHEST NEAR THE
COAST AT 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS GREATEST AS YOU HEAD NORTH IN THE
OUTERMOST WATERS. SEAS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS AS YOU
MOVE SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... ALL TOO FAMILIAR EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE ON
MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WELL EAST OF NANTUCKET AND TO
A LESSER EXTENT LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING EAST OF FLORIDA. MUCH OF
THE SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FAIRLY LONG FETCH WILL BE
CHANNELED INTO THE OUTER BANKS AND LOCALIZED WAVE SHADOWING KEEPS
SEAS IN THE 2 TO 4 FT RANGE ACCORDING TO WNA/SWAN BLEND. FLOW TO
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER A BIT ON TUESDAY AS THE OFFSHORE HIGH
LOSES ITS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE U.S. AND THE LOW WEAKENS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
VEER AND PICK UP LATE IN THE DAY AND AT NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THIS INCREASE MAY BE A CATEGORY OR TWO AND SEAS
COULD BUILD TO WHERE SCEC IS NEEDED THOUGH THE OFFSHORE COMPONENT
WILL ACT TO HOLD BACK NEAR SHORE WAVE HEIGHTS. THE NORTHEAST FLOW
WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AND THE GRADIENT MAY BECOME PINCHED AS
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED NEAR THE COAST. CONDITIONS MAY BE NEAR
BORDERLINE OF SCEC/SCA THRESHOLDS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING SURROUNDING PERIOD OF THE HIGH TIDE. THIS WILL IMPACT THE
BEACHES FROM SURF CITY TO MURRELLS INLET AND ALONG THE CAPE FEAR
RIVER IN DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON. PERSISTENT ON SHORE WINDS AND LONG
PERIOD EASTERLY SWELLS ALONG WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES HAVE
RAISED TIDAL LEVELS TO GREATER THAN A FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. WE CAN
EXPECT THIS TO PERSIST AT LEAST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT
SLOWLY WANE AS WE PASS THE FULL MOON TONIGHT. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE
FOR LOCAL BEACHES WILL BE BETWEEN 7 AND 8 PM THIS EVENING AND FOR
THE CAPE FEAR RIVER IT WILL OCCUR AROUND 10 PM. THIS WILL COINCIDE
VERY CLOSELY WITH THE FULL MOON AT 1050 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ106-
108.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB/CRM
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
TEMPERATURES ALONG TO BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAVE JUMPED TO A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST AND WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA BY NOON TIME. INHERITED FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SO
ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO ONLY ADJUSTED
BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
BLENDED THE ONGOING FORECAST TO RADAR TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED
ENSEMBLE OF THE 08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE A GOOD HANDLE
ON ONGOING SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM HUDSON BAY SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...TO NEAR BOTTINEAU...GARRISON...TO BOWMAN. WINDS
WERE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHERLY BEHIND IT.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING MAINLY WEST OF/BEHIND
THE FRONT OVER NORTHWESTERN INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHEASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA...ASSOCIATED WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
EASTWARD IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...REACHING
THE JAMESTOWN AREA AROUND NOON AND FARGO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD END FROM WEST TO EAST BY AROUND NOON. THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY FROM THE UPPER 60S NORTHWEST TO UPPER 70S
SOUTH CENTRAL. LOWS TONIGHT FROM THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO THE 40S SOUTH. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FAR NORTH.
KEPT LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS TONIGHT IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL...WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSES ASSOCIATED WITH
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
OUTSIDE OF FROST POTENTIAL TUESDAY MORNING...RATHER QUIET AND NEAR
SEASONABLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL...ALBEIT
COOLER THAN THE RECENT WARMTH...HIGHS IN THE 60S. GIVEN THE COOLER
AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH...WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE
30S AND FROST ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...SHORTWAVE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION ON THE
00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...FAVORING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE 70S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. HOWEVER...BY THIS
TIME...THE 00 UTC SUITE ENVELOP OF SOLUTIONS BEGINS TO WIDEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 2015
A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LATER
TONIGHT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS AT KDIK
AND KBIS...ALTHOUGH CHANCES TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN
THE TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR EITHER SITE. VFR THROUGH THE 18Z
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER TROF WILL EXIT THE REGION BY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE TUESDAY...THEN
STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN REDUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY
ACROSS WV AND VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW WILL
KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR NOW SHOWS
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MY CWA THIS EVENING OVER WV
AND VA. BEST CHC OF SHOWERS REMAINS ACROSS THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
INTO THIS EVENING.
DESPITE THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTS TO
SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY FCST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL LIE. LINGERING
FETCH INTO THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU WILL KEEP A BIT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY THERE...BUT IT WILL BE LIGHT. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL KEEP
THINGS MILDER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT WITH MINS WITH MINS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
OFFSHORE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...WITH EASTERLY
FETCH DECREASING AS A RESULT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PLUME INCREASES
OVER PA AS A RESULT OF THE AMPLIFIED SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. FORCING
REMAINS WEAK ON MONDAY...BUT THE SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC
OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL KEEP THINGS CLOUDY FOR MOST. WEAK UPPER
TROF APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWERS...ESP ACROSS THE WEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL
OF WHICH PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...THEN DEVELOP A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW ON STALLED FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BASED ON LATEST 00Z OPER AND ENS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TUES/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH FROPA.
CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT TSRA ACROSS NW PA TUE AFTN/EVEN...WHERE SOME
MODEST CAPES NOTED IN THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT.
CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION SOAKING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL
COAST. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH A 4-6 DAY FCST REMAIN...SO UNABLE
TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE EITHER OVER PA OR VIRGINIA. GEFS QPF PLUMES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA INDICATE LATE WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM ZERO
TO 3-4 INCHES. ATTM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WED-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MTNS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT
SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH...WITH SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MON...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR DECK WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT BEING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. MAY EVEN REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF CWA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS... FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...DEVOIR/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1136 AM EDT SUN SEP 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA EARLY TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA LATE
TUESDAY...THEN STALL OUT SOUTH OF THE STATE. A SLOW MOVING COASTAL LOW
WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR TRENDS
IN KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF CENTRAL
PA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS UPPER TROF LIFTS
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO NY STATE. THIS IS A DECREASE
FROM THE MORNING COVERAGE...BUT ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY ACROSS WV AND
VA LIFTING NORTHWARD IN THE ANOMALOUS ESE FLOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS GOING. HRRR ACTUALLY SHOWS INCRDASING
COVERAGE JUST SOUTHWEST OF MY AREA BY THIS EVENING...AS INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE POOLS THERE.
WHILE THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SEE DIMINISHING CHC OF SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW REMNANTS AND LG FORCING SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA...SFC RIDGING AND ASSOC LOW PWAT AIR MASS SHOULD KEEP THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE MAINLY DRY.
COOLEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...WHERE
READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F UNDER THICK OVERCAST AND SCT
SHOWERS. PTSUNNY SKIES WILL RESULT IN A MILDER SUNDAY ACROSS EASTERN
PA...WHERE CONSALL OUTPUT SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE L70S ACROSS THE
SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A DRY FCST TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE...WHERE SFC RIDGE AND LOW PWAT AIR MASS WILL
LIE. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOIST SERLY FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED FROM THE VIRGINIAS INTO WESTERN PA TONIGHT.
OROGRAPHIC FORCING OF THIS MOIST AIR MASS MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LGT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TONIGHT. INCREASING LOW
LVL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER WILL TRANSLATE TO A MILDER NIGHT WITH
MIN TEMPS LIKELY RANGING FROM 55-60F.
AS SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF THE E COAST MONDAY...VEERING BLYR FLOW
WILL ADVECT PLUME OF HIGH PWAT AIR WITH ORIGINS OVR THE S ATLANTIC
INTO CENTRAL PA. SERLY LOW LVL FLOW AND ASSOC OROGRAPHIC FORCING
IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN MAINLY OVERCAST SKIES. HOWEVER...TEMPS
SHOULD STILL MANAGE TO RISE ABV SEASONAL NORMS. WEAK SHORTWAVE
TRACKING ACROSS THE E GRT LKS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NW COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD AMONG MED RANGE GUIDANCE NEXT WEEK...ALL
OF WHICH PUSH A COLD FRONT THRU CENTRAL PA LATE TUE/EARLY
WED...THEN DEVELOP A SLOW-MOVING COASTAL LOW ON STALLED FRONT IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPMENT OF CUT-OFF UPPER LOW OVR THE OHIO VALLEY.
BASED ON LATEST 00Z OPER AND ENS GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION LATE TUES/TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC WITH FROPA.
CAN/T EVEN RULE OUT TSRA ACROSS NW PA TUE AFTN/EVEN...WHERE SOME
MODEST CAPES NOTED IN THE LATEST GEFS OUTPUT.
CONFIDENCE IN A LONG DURATION SOAKING RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION LATE THIS
WEEK...AS ALL MDLS HAVE CONVERGED ON IDEA OF A CUT OFF LOW FORMING
OVR THE OHIO VALLEY WITH ASSOC SFC LOW CRAWLING UP THE MID ATL
COAST. INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH A 4-6 DAY FCST REMAIN...SO UNABLE
TO PIN DOWN WHERE THE FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL.
HOWEVER...A SWATH OF SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL APPEARS QUITE
POSSIBLE EITHER OVER PA OR VIRGINIA. GEFS QPF PLUMES ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA INDICATE LATE WEEK RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM ZERO
TO 3-4 INCHES. ATTM...HAVE INCREASED POPS IN THE WED-SAT TIME
FRAME...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARDS TO LATE WEEK
RAIN...THERE IS A GOOD DEAL OF CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS TAKING TUMBLE
AFTER A VERY MILD MON-TUE. NORTHERLY FLOW/LOW LVL CAA IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONT...COMBINED WITH POSSIBLE RAIN...SHOULD TRANSLATE TO
TEMPS AOB CLIMO LATE NEXT WEEK...ESP DURING THE DAYTIME.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VERY WEAK UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PRODUCE ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHERN MTNS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE E/SE AT
SPEEDS OF GENERALLY 5-10MPH...WITH SOME BREEZINESS ACROSS THE
SOUTH.
AS OVERALL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MON...FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD CIG RESTRICTIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL PA. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR DECK WILL
SETTLE IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH MVFR IN THE LOWER SUSQ.
LOW CIGS PERSIST INTO MON...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR IMPROVEMENT BEING
OVER THE LOWER SUSQ. MAY EVEN REMAIN IFR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS NW
HALF OF CWA WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AROUND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...INCREASING LIKELIHOOD OF LIGHT RAIN/LOW CIGS... FOCUSED
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN HALF.
TUE...LOW CIGS/SHOWERS LIKELY...ESP NW HALF.
TUE NIGHT...LOW CIGS/SCT SHOWERS.
WED...LOW CIGS NW MTNS EARLY. CHC SHOWERS SOUTH.
THU...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...RXR