Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
902 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
CLEAR SKIES WITH A STABLE AIRMASS THIS EVENING. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING SOME STRATUS AND FOG LURKING ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN KANSAS. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO ADVECT INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO DURING THE NIGHT UNDER A MODEST SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW. STILL SOME QUESTIONS ON HOW FURTHER WEST THIS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVANCES. LATEST RAP/NAM KEEP CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF
THE DENVER AREA WHILE THE HRRR IS A BIT MORE AMBITIOUS ON THE
STATUS INTO NORTH DENVER WITH A MORE INTENSE CYCLONE. CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS/FOG MAINLY
NORTH AND EAST OF DENVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER COLORADO FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. A DRY AND WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SUBSIDENT WITH LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AREAS OF STRATUS/FOG ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN AND COULD PUSH FURTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL WELD
COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT SURE IT WILL IMPACT DENVER BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE METRO AREA. WILL LET THE SWING SHIFT HAVE THE FINAL
SAY ON THIS SO WILL KEEP IT OUT OF THE DENVER FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. SHOULD SEE MOST OF THIS BURN OFF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY 18Z
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER COLORADO THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN SOME ON MONDAY AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH DURING THE DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER BUT
STILL WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT AND COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS...BEST CHANCE WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT FOR TUESDAY WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AROUND A SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE THERE MAY
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. WILL
KEEP LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING. BEST
CHANCE SHOULD BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA
BRINGING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AGAIN. FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH THURSDAY. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA WITH A CHANCE FOR
LATE DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY OR AGREEMENT AMONG THE
MODELS ON WHERE THE TROUGH WILL TRACK. IF IT DIGS FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET. IF IT PASSES NORTH OF
COLORADO...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER CONDITIONS WHILE IT
REMAINS DRY. WILL HAVE LOW POPS FOR THIS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 845 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY TURNING SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING THEN MORE
SOUTHERLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AT DEN/APA. STILL QUESTIONS ON
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPING LATER TNT BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
TERMINALS FOR DEN/BJC WITH A VCFG WITH STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ENTREKIN
SHORT TERM...COOPER
LONG TERM...MEIER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1054 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OFF OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MOVING EAST OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SUNNY DAY IS IN PROGRESS WITH THE SUN FILTERED BY VARIABLY THIN
CIRRUS OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...MAINLY S OF
I-78.
RAISED TEMPS A TOUCH..ABOUT 1-2F WITH 12Z HRRR ASSISTANCE. BASICALLY
AROUND 80F OR 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. GUSTS INCREASED 2-3 MPH
THIS AFTN SO THAT WE SEE GUSTS 15-20 MPH THIS AFTN, STRONGEST
NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SOUTH, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION. THUS, COULD
HAVE A BREEZY NIGHT PRIMARILY NEAR THE COAST.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS, EXPECT THE MAIN JET AXIS TO PROPAGATE SOUTH. AS
A RESULT, SHOULD SEE INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION.
FOG DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN WINDS STAYING A BIT HIGHER
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LARGELY DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. HOWEVER, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY PUSH NORTHWARD, REMAINING
OFFSHORE, MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MIDWEEK.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM CENTRAL CANADA, REMAINING CENTERED TO
OUR NORTH, AND SLIDING EASTWARD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE NORTH/SOUTH CAROLINA COAST RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AS THIS LOW STARTS TO PUSH
NORTHWARD, WE WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS OUR AREA AND SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY.
WHILE THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE, THERE IS A MORE DISCERNIBLE DRYING TREND THAN HAS BEEN SEEN
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE GFS IS NOW TRENDING A BIT DRIER WITH THE
LOW AS IT PUSHES NORTH AND SEEMS TO BE STARTING TO MOVE MORE TOWARD
THE REMAINING MODEL CONSENSUS. WE CONTINUE TO HAVE LOWER CONFIDENCE
IN THIS FORECAST THAN WE WOULD LIKE AT THIS TIME. WE CONTINUE TO
KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.
A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE MID LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
THIS MAY ACTUALLY HELP TO BRING SOME THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER
NORTH. WE HAVE CHANCES FOR RAIN EXTENDING FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY
SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE AND THE LOW PUSH TO THE EAST.
THE ONE THING REMAINS CERTAIN IS WE WILL SEE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
INCREASE AGAIN, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS, AS THE HIGH
BUILDS SOUTH AND THE LOW PUSHES NORTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALONG THE COAST MAY BE NEAR 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE SHOULD DRY OUT AS THE LOW PUSHES
FURTHER TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY RETURNS TO THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND WEDNESDAY BUT
CONSIDERABLE TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY, AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIRRUS. NE WIND SHOULD SEE GUSTS
INCREASE TO AROUND 14-19 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT...VFR WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS STREAMING SWWD IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC POSSIBLY GRAZING KACY KMIV TONIGHT... 2000 FT SCT? NE
WIND GUSTS 10 TO 15 KT EXCEPT AROUND 20 KT VCNTY KACY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH AN INJECTION OF COOL AIR ARRIVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST DURING THE NIGHT STEEPING THE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS FROM KPHL, SOUTH AND EAST AS A LOW
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST PUSHES NORTHWARD. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
TO 15 KNOTS WITH WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS. WIND GUSTS ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MAY NEAR 30 KNOTS, MAINLY AT KACY AND POSSIBLY
KMIV.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS NEAR KACY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD LATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT. RIGHT NOW, JUST BELOW SCA IN ANZ450 (NNJ) AND ANZ431
(LOWER DE BAY) BUT NOT CHANGING THE HEADLINE SINCE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAVE IMPLIED THIS IN
THE UPDATED MWW. BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY NEAR 30 KT GUSTS EXPECTED AND
SEAS INCREASED BY 1 TO 2 FEET FROM THE CURRENT VALUES...8 FT OFF
DE AND S NJ AND 5 FT AT THE DE BAY ENTRANCE. CHOP DEVELOPING ON
TOP OF THE LONGER PERIOD ENE SWELL.
FOR THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY, SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY AND THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND, ABOVE 5 FEET, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FOR SEAS, WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING WITH EACH
NEW MODEL RUN. STILL ANTICIPATE THAT WAVES WILL RISE TO 7 TO 10 FEET
BY THIS WEEKEND. HIGHEST SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS. SHOULD SEAS REACH AND/OR EXCEED 10 FEET NEAR THE
COAST, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
FOR WINDS, NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE, MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN BETTER
MIXING OCCURS. WINDS MAY DROP BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY NORTHERN WATERS, WILL PICK RIGHT
BACK UP AGAIN ON DURING THE DAYTIME WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THOSE TO THE SOUTH AS THE GRADIENT WILL
BE WEAKER AS YOU HEAD NORTH. THERE IS CHANCE THAT GALE FORCE
GUSTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND, MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
WATERS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT REALLY STARTS TO
WEAKEN ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. WE SHOULD LARGELY LOSE THE HIGHER
GUSTS AND GENERALLY SEE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE OCEANFRONT OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE. MINOR FLOODING HAS OCCURRED IN DE LATE YESTERDAY AND
IN ALL LIKELIHOOD WE WILL BE ISSUING AN ADVISORY AT 3PM FOR THE
FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND INCLUDE SOME INFORMATION ABOUT
THIS EVENING.
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
ALONG THE DE COAST AND PROBABLY THE SNJ COAST.
HIGH TIDE CYCLES STARING ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING ARE VULNERABLE TO COASTAL FLOODING AND WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED. WHILE THE CHANCES ARE HIGH FOR MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
TO OCCUR ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY, THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT TIDAL FLOODING MAY BE AN ISSUE ALONG THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE
DELAWARE RIVER.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS EXISTS
ALONG THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
AT LEAST THIS EVENING.
BASED ON THE EXPECTATION THAT THE FLOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY FROM
THE NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF MODERATE OR HIGH RIP CURRENT FORMATION RISK ALONG OUR
COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.CLIMATE...
A TOP 8 WARMEST SEPTEMBER APPEARS ASSURED FOR PORTIONS OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. DATA CHECKED THROUGH 9AM THIS THURSDAY MORNING
INCLUDING PROJECTIONS THROUGH THE 30TH FROM OUR GRIDS.
INFORMATION PUBLISHED BELOW IS ONLY FOR THE LONG TERM CLIMATE SITES
THAT SHOULD VERIFY CLOSE TO THE RANKING PROJECTIONS POSTED BELOW.
PHL 73.9-74.0 RANK #3 POR 1874 NORMAL 69.1 PROJECTING AROUND PLUS
3.8F
1881 75.4
1931 74.1
1930 74.1
2015 73.9?
2005 73.8
2010 72.9
ABE 68.9-69.0 RANK #4 POR 1922 NORMAL 63.9 PROJECTING AROUND PLUS
5.0F
1961 70.8
1980 70.3
1931 69.4
2015 68.9?
2005 68.7
1959 68.2
ILG 72.0 RANK #5 POR 1917 NORMAL 67.8 PROJECTING PLUS 4.2F
EVEN THOUGH WE LIST AN ALL TIME MONTHLY MAX AVERAGE TEMP IN 1895 FOR
KILG...THE POR WAS INTERRUPTED IN OUR POSTED MONTHLY MEAN TEMP DATA
FOR THE PERIOD 1897-1916.
1895 72.9
1961 72.5
1930 72.3
1970 72.1
1931 72.1
2015 72.0?
2005 71.8
1921 71.8
1925 71.4
ACY 71.2 RANK #7 POR 1874 NORMAL 67.2 PROJECTING PLUS 4.0
1961 73.3
1881 72.8
1931 72.3
1930 72.3
1921 71.7
1933 71.5
2005 71.3
2015 71.2?
2010 71.0
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ014-
024>026.
DE...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1053
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...DRAG/MEOLA 1053
MARINE...DRAG/MEOLA 1053
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...1053
RIP CURRENTS...1053
CLIMATE...1053
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, CONSIDERING THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WAS UNTOUCHED THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR DAWN CAN ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE BEACHES, WHICH MAY LEAD WATER TO
ISSUES ALONG MIAMI BEACH AGAIN, CONSIDERING HIGH TIDE IS AROUND
7AM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE CELL NEAR KAPF AND THIS WILL BE GONE AROUND
01Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT THAT TIME BUT TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NOW FOR
WEST AND EAST COASTS. ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORE SO
AROUND HIGH TIDE, WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.
LESS HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED INLAND, SUCH THAT MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR OR FAR WESTERN SUBURBS. WITH WEAK WIND PROFILE STILL IN
PLACE, AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, HRRR SHOWS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AND
BEACHES INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS PROCESS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE
EARLIER THOUGH THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE MEAN WIND/STORM MOTION THERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING MOVEMENT.
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE A NOTABLE
MIDLEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S RAOB. MODEL SOUNDING
FORECASTED AFTERNOON CAPE ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AS PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FL
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT, EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
DEEPER, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PERHAPS A SMALLER CHC OF ACTIVITY BLEEDING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THAN TODAY. INSTABILITY IS NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT WITH SIMILAR H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS TO TODAY.
IF MIDLEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS, THAT
COULD RESTRICT ACTIVITY AGAIN. PWATS THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 2" AND DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
EASTERLY FLOW TRIES TO BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER, ALTHOUGH
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS HAVING
PROBLEMS EXERTING INFLUENCE, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH
STUCK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. H5 TEMP PERHAPS WARMS ABOVE
-6C. FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERIOR,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WEST COAST ALSO.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT CONTINUES WEAKER. NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR 5 DAY OUTLOOK AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY CONTINUES
ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AFTER IT CROSSES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
COLUMN, BECOMING MORE SSE AT THE SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THUS,
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH AN H5 RIDGE STRETCHING
FURTHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THIS WEEKEND, H5 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH RATHER UNFAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEL/BLENDED POPS MAY BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVOLVING AT ALL LEVELS, THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
WE WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAR
EAST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS TOWARDS OUR
GULF COAST REGION, ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE POSSIBLY HAS THE LOW
STAYING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX/LA EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPENS UP
AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY MITIGATE A WIND FIELD WHICH
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS FOCUSED THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST PER THE DEEPER ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 77 89 / 30 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 78 89 / 30 30 20 30
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 50 20 40
NAPLES 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 20 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.AVIATION...
MOST OF THE CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF ONE CELL NEAR KAPF AND THIS WILL BE GONE AROUND
01Z. SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SEA
BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ON SATURDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AT THAT TIME BUT TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE BUT THERE COULD BE A BRIEF SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY AT
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NOW FOR
WEST AND EAST COASTS. ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORE SO
AROUND HIGH TIDE, WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.
LESS HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED INLAND, SUCH THAT MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR OR FAR WESTERN SUBURBS. WITH WEAK WIND PROFILE STILL IN
PLACE, AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, HRRR SHOWS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AND
BEACHES INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS PROCESS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE
EARLIER THOUGH THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE MEAN WIND/STORM MOTION THERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING MOVEMENT.
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE A NOTABLE
MIDLEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S RAOB. MODEL SOUNDING
FORECASTED AFTERNOON CAPE ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AS PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FL
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT, EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
DEEPER, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PERHAPS A SMALLER CHC OF ACTIVITY BLEEDING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THAN TODAY. INSTABILITY IS NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT WITH SIMILAR H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS TO TODAY.
IF MIDLEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS, THAT
COULD RESTRICT ACTIVITY AGAIN. PWATS THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 2" AND DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
EASTERLY FLOW TRIES TO BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER, ALTHOUGH
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS HAVING
PROBLEMS EXERTING INFLUENCE, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH
STUCK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. H5 TEMP PERHAPS WARMS ABOVE
-6C. FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERIOR,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WEST COAST ALSO.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT CONTINUES WEAKER. NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR 5 DAY OUTLOOK AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY CONTINUES
ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AFTER IT CROSSES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
COLUMN, BECOMING MORE SSE AT THE SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THUS,
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH AN H5 RIDGE STRETCHING
FURTHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THIS WEEKEND, H5 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH RATHER UNFAVORABLE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEL/BLENDED POPS MAY BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVOLVING AT ALL LEVELS, THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
WE WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAR
EAST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS TOWARDS OUR
GULF COAST REGION, ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE POSSIBLY HAS THE LOW
STAYING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX/LA EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPENS UP
AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF MIDLEVEL DRY AIR
ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY MITIGATE A WIND FIELD WHICH
MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS FOCUSED THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST PER THE DEEPER ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 89 77 89 / 30 40 20 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 88 78 89 / 30 30 30 30
MIAMI 77 90 78 90 / 30 50 40 40
NAPLES 75 90 76 90 / 20 40 40 50
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH RULING OUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT
REINFORCING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXCELLENT ON
FRIDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS...SO A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
A CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST FOR BOTH SITES FOR THE 0Z TAFS.
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. QUESTION IS NOT SO MUCH HOW LOW
WILL CONDITIONS GO BUT WHEN TO START CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT
LOWEST CATEGORY. DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY...DEW POINTS
REMAINING FAIRLY HIGH AND THE GROUND STILL WET FROM THE RAINFALL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK...AM THINKING THE ONSET OF FOG AND STRATUS
WILL BE EARLIER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. MODELS ALSO AGREE
WITH THIS AS WELL AS CLIMATOLOGY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY DURING THE LATE EVENING. KMCK SHOULD MAINLY BE
DEALING WITH STRATUS AND NOT FOG WHILE KGLD WILL SUFFER MORE FROM
A THICK FOG DECK THAN STRATUS. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MID MORNING
SATURDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
213 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAINFALL FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHEN A BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA ROTATE SOUTH OVER GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY DRY AND LITTLE
TO NO LIFT. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WHERE THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER.
ADJUSTED THE PLACEMENT OF THE THICKEST FOG FOR TONIGHT TO MORE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE THERE
WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. MODELS SEEM TO LOOSELY AGREE THE
DENSEST FOG WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN MID 50S DEW POINTS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. VISIBILITIES AROUND A MILE
OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRONG
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS OVER OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SW QUADRANT OF
CLOSED LOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
I-70 AND MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH HAS AIDED
IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
CAPE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH THIS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO NW KANSAS. HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 ALONG TROUGH AXIS. TREND SHOULD BE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THOUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE/MID LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN NEBRASKA. CAPE AXIS OF ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 20KT...SO SEVERE
THREAT IS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND WITH CLEARING SKIES COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE IN A DENSE FOG EVENT IS LOWERED BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 12Z...WHICH COULD BRING DRIER AIR AND
BETTER BL MIXING. IN ANY CASE WITH SIGNAL DEPICTED BY SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/RAP CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
PATCHY/AREAS MENTION TO MOST OF CWA.
THURSDAY...AS CLOSED LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD AND MEAN TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEP DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A LOBE OF
VORTICITY MAY ROTATE AROUND BACK EDGE OF CLOSED LOW INTO OUR
CWA. CONSIDERING THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME FORCING ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE
IS A SPLIT BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING TEMPS AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
REINFORCING CAA BEHIND UPPER LOW OVERSPREADING OUR CWA...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WAA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN FROM THE WEST. I BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE WEST (EASTERN
COLORADO) TO THE MID 80S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F. THIS ISN`T FAR FROM MOST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE MAIN JET ENERGY AND LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS THE GFS DEPICTS A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWESTERN
STATES THAT COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF
INDICATES AN INCREASING AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION.
THE ECMWF RUN CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS...HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE AND DISAGREE WITH THE
POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL AFFECT
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE ECMWF IS BETTER
THAN THE OTHER MODELS AT THE MOMENT. MODEL CONSENSUS DID PLACE SOME
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST DESPITE THE ECMWF KEEPING THE WEATHER
DRY ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA. CONSENSUS MAY BE PICKING UP ON
PRECIPITATION GENERATED BASED ON HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE GFS/DGEX...AND CANADIAN HAD A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE IN THE LAST VALID
PERIOD 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE CONFLICTING INFORMATION IN MODEL
FORECASTS IS LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...SO DID NOT MAKE
CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION.
DIFFERENCES IN THE TROUGH AND RIDGE POSITIONING IN THE MODELS ALSO
MAKES THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DIFFICULT. IF THE GFS IS CORRECT
WITH THE TROUGH POSITION AND PRECIPITATION LOCATION...TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO BE COOLER WITH THE INFLUX OF A NORTHERN AIR MASS.
HOWEVER IF A STRONG RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE AS GIVEN BY THE
ECMWF...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT. AGAIN GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY...DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL FALL AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO THE MOIST
LOW LEVELS. SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAN KMCK...AND MODELS PLACE LOWER VISIBILITY CLOSER
TO KGLD THAN KMCK. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT
RAINFALL NEAR KMCK...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
FORECAST. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT FOG WOULD BE THICK ENOUGH
FOR MVFR TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE KMCK TAF...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF IT DID DROP TO THAT CATEGORY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE
THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE MORNING THEN
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
REMOVED ANY MENTION OF RAINFALL FROM THE FORECAST UNTIL TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WHEN A BAND OF MOISTURE AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NEBRASKA ROTATE SOUTH OVER GRAHAM AND NORTON COUNTIES.
BETWEEN NOW AND THEN THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE VERY DRY AND LITTLE
TO NO LIFT. ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP SHOULD DO SO JUST EAST OF THE
AREA WHERE THE ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE WILL BE BETTER.
ADJUSTED THE PLACEMENT OF THE THICKEST FOG FOR TONIGHT TO MORE
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA WHERE THERE
WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING...AS WELL AS OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. MODELS SEEM TO LOOSELY AGREE THE
DENSEST FOG WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 25 AND NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BRINGING IN MID 50S DEW POINTS FROM
WESTERN NEBRASKA ALONG WITH COOLER AIR. VISIBILITIES AROUND A MILE
OR TWO CAN BE EXPECTED AROUND SUNRISE FOR THIS PART OF THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRONG
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS OVER OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SW QUADRANT OF
CLOSED LOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
I-70 AND MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH HAS AIDED
IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
CAPE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH THIS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO NW KANSAS. HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 ALONG TROUGH AXIS. TREND SHOULD BE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THOUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE/MID LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN NEBRASKA. CAPE AXIS OF ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 20KT...SO SEVERE
THREAT IS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND WITH CLEARING SKIES COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE IN A DENSE FOG EVENT IS LOWERED BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 12Z...WHICH COULD BRING DRIER AIR AND
BETTER BL MIXING. IN ANY CASE WITH SIGNAL DEPICTED BY SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/RAP CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
PATCHY/AREAS MENTION TO MOST OF CWA.
THURSDAY...AS CLOSED LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD AND MEAN TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEP DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A LOBE OF
VORTICITY MAY ROTATE AROUND BACK EDGE OF CLOSED LOW INTO OUR
CWA. CONSIDERING THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME FORCING ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE
IS A SPLIT BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING TEMPS AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
REINFORCING CAA BEHIND UPPER LOW OVERSPREADING OUR CWA...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WAA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN FROM THE WEST. I BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE WEST (EASTERN
COLORADO) TO THE MID 80S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F. THIS ISN`T FAR FROM MOST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...STRATUS/FOG THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...AND HOW MUCH DO
TEMPERATURES RECOVER. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSLATES TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THEN A RIDGE BEING PUSHED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM STARTED OUT BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN/NAM. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. 70H LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IS JUST TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WITH NOT A LOT BUT
ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER...A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ROTATES THROUGH
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCING SOME
VERY LIGHT QPF. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME RAINFALL BUT WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY IN BRINGING/INCREASING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COVERAGE COULD BE GREATER WITH DENSE FOG INDICATED.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH 70H LOW WEAKENS...IT CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN
MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE ECMWF...IS INDICATING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME CAPE AROUND. TQ INDEX ALSO INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT QPF SHOWN BY OUTPUT AS WELL AS WPC WHICH MATCHES THE ABOVE
REASONING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES BUT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE STRATUS AND FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE
MORNING. AM A LITTLE BIT CONCERNED WITH THAT SINCE THE WIND FIELD
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WILL END FOG BY MID MORNING BUT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON
LONGER. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND UNFAVORABLE WINDS LOWERED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
AIR MASS LOOKS LIKE IT STABILIZES RAPIDLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN LIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. SO FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD DRY WITH HIGH SILENT POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING COULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING BUT IT
SHOULD END QUICKLY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE WIND EXPECTED WITH THE EAST SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT.
MODELS NOT AS HIGH WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW.
SATURDAY...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THINK SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM
DUE TO A LACK OF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES
DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A LOT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW TO HANDLE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STILL THE FURTHEST
WEST AND MORE CUTOFF WITH THE GFS STILL PUSHING THE TROUGH FURTHER
TO THE EAST WHILE RETAINING THE CUTOFF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN...CONSISTENT
ECMWF/CANADIAN AND THE SLOWER GFS...THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER
SOLUTION LOOKS THE BEST. THE WPC MANUAL PROGS ECHO THIS AS WELL.
SAYING THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD AND LEFT WHAT THE CRH_INIT
GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN ISSUE WILL
BE HOW LOW VISIBILITIES WILL FALL AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO THE MOIST
LOW LEVELS. SOUNDINGS FOR KGLD ARE MORE FAVORABLE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT THAN KMCK...AND MODELS PLACE LOWER VISIBILITY CLOSER
TO KGLD THAN KMCK. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND RECENT
RAINFALL NEAR KMCK...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN VISIBILITY
FORECAST. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH THAT FOG WOULD BE THICK ENOUGH
FOR MVFR TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE KMCK TAF...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED IF IT DID DROP TO THAT CATEGORY BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE
THE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE MORNING THEN
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT HAS BEEN CREATED AND SENT OUT ALREADY WITH THE
UPDATES MENTIONED ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WEATHER OFFICE HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...MAKING THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TOO
HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO REALITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. BY 2 OR 3Z IT
APPEARS THAT...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR MODEL...THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DUE MAINLY TO A LACK OF RENEWED
FORCING ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE WHAT WE EXPECT TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE POPS...QPF...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY...REFLECTING THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A
NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AS AN A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO WEST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE EVENING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA. THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN...AS A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WEATHER OFFICE HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...MAKING THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TOO
HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO REALITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. BY 2 OR 3Z IT
APPEARS THAT...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR MODEL...THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DUE MAINLY TO A LACK OF RENEWED
FORCING ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE WHAT WE EXPECT TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE POPS...QPF...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY...REFLECTING THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A
NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AS AN A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO WEST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE EVENING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA. THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN...AS A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
343 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME VERY LIMITED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR EAST...AMPLE SUNSHINE DOMINATED EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY HELPING TO SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
PLACES. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MIX
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...MEANWHILE...HAVE BEEN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW...IN THE MIDST OF GENERAL HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NATION...SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL
CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. PLENTY OF ENERGY WILL SPIN
THROUGH THE HEART OF THIS LOW AS IT IMPACT OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE NAM12 IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND
THICKEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING BEFORE
DAWN IN THE FAR EAST. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BUILD
QUICKLY WEST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE CWA COVERED
BY MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY WITH A DRIFT TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED FOR THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. POCKETS OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN GENERAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN
INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE UNIFORM WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS EVENING WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE A
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOP BEFORE THE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND USED FROM THAT POINT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING NEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD. BEFORE EVENTUALLY
BECOMING DEFUSE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER MODELS BECOME MUCH
MORE DIVERGENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY IN RELATION TO THE
SURFACE. AT THE SURFACE THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
PARKED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND...MEAN WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL BE EARLY ON SAT
WITH CHANCES WAINING THROUGH THE DAY. NOW STUCK CLOSER TO BLEND
OVERALL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD FOR CONSISTENCY...BUT MAY BE
A BIT OVERDONE WITH GFS SEEMING TO BE MORE EXAGGERATE PRECIP
THROUGH THE PERIOD COMPARED WITH ECMWF/CANADIAN. PERHAPS THE
BETTER DAY FOR PRECIP CHANCES WOULD BE AS WE MOVE INTO WED WITH
SOME TROUGHING AND LOWER HEIGHTS. THEN TRENDING DRIER OVERALL AS
WE MOVE INTO THURS. HAVE STUCK WITH RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS POINT
GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING MEAGER
INSTABILITY SIGNALS...HOWEVER BETTER CHANCES IF ANY OF THUNDER
WOULD BE MID WEEK. OVERALL TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
NEARER NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT...THOUGH...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME RAIN SHOWERS SEEPING IN FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. DO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME PREVAILING AT ALL THE SITES
BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z WITH MVFR VIS AND POSSIBLY CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF
KENTUCKY WHILE LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME VERY LIMITED MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS SPREADING INTO KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHEAST. EXCEPT FOR
PERHAPS THE FAR EAST...AMPLE SUNSHINE DOMINATED EAST KENTUCKY
TODAY HELPING TO SEND TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST
PLACES. DEWPOINTS FELL INTO THE LOWER 50S DUE TO SOME DRY AIR MIX
DOWN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS...MEANWHILE...HAVE BEEN FROM THE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KTS TODAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THIS WEEK IN THE SHORT TERM. THEY ALL DEPICT AN UPPER
LOW...IN THE MIDST OF GENERAL HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NATION...SLOWLY DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL
CLOSE OFF AND DRIFT NORTHWEST WITH TIME...REACHING THE MID
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY 12Z SATURDAY. PLENTY OF ENERGY WILL SPIN
THROUGH THE HEART OF THIS LOW AS IT IMPACT OUR AREA LATER TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF IS A BIT STRONGER
WITH THIS LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS WITH THE NAM12 IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM12 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER DETAILS.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR EVENING
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST AND
THICKEN DURING THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS POTENTIALLY ARRIVING BEFORE
DAWN IN THE FAR EAST. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BUILD
QUICKLY WEST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH MUCH OF THE CWA COVERED
BY MIDDAY. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE FAR NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST
KENTUCKY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA
INTO SATURDAY WITH A DRIFT TO THE NORTH ANTICIPATED FOR THE
DEEPER MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD. POCKETS OF HEAVIER PCPN WILL
BE POSSIBLE...BUT IN GENERAL BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF OF AN
INCH OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE UNIFORM WITH THE RAIN FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH THIS EVENING WE WILL STILL LIKELY SEE A
RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT DEVELOP BEFORE THE THICKER AND LOWER CLOUDS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND USED FROM THAT POINT THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
DID MAKE SOME MINOR...TERRAIN BASED...ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A
BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL RESIDE OVER
NEW ENGLAND...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. OVERALL WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL ALLOW THIS
DISTURBANCE TO SLOWLY WORK NORTHWARD ACROSS KENTUCKY WITH GOOD RAIN
CHANCES. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH WITH DEEP FLOW OFF THE
ATLANTIC. ONLY NEGATIVE IS THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH TENDS TO DO A
NUMBER ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GO HIGHER WITH POPS AND WENT UPWARDS
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. WILL LEAVE THUNDER OUT AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK THIS TIME AROUND. RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN
SUNDAY. THE WAVE WILL FINALLY GET PICKED UP BY THE NORTHERN JET LATE
SUNDAY WITH RAIN CHANCES ENDING. THIS MAY EVEN HAPPEN IN TIME FOR
THE TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE LATE SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUD COVER SUNDAY EVENING.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST BEYOND SUNDAY AS THE 00Z GFS
KEEPS THE WEATHER ACTIVE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE 00Z
ECMWF PROVIDES ANOTHER MORE TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER. SURROUNDING
OFFICES HAVE MAINTAINED A MAINLY DRY FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK...SO
WILL STAY THE COURSE FOR NOW AND AWAIT SOME BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.
DID LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY AND INTO THE NIGHT. BY LATE NIGHT...THOUGH...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION...WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF LOWERING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY
SOME RAIN SHOWERS SEEPING IN FROM EAST TO WEST BETWEEN 09Z AND
12Z. DO EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME PREVAILING AT ALL THE SITES
BETWEEN 11Z AND 14Z WITH MVFR VIS AND POSSIBLY CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
109 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
VIS IMAGERY/SFC OBS SHOW JUST SCT CU/CI COVERING THE AREA ATTM...
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS
AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOST MOISTURE REMAINING IN THESE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE. DID REMOVE THE VCSH MENTION AT KBPT AS RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE THE COASTAL SHOWERS PUSHING SWD AWAY FROM THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR TWO COULD POP UP ANYWHERE THIS
AFTERNOON GIVEN DEEPENING MOISTURE NOTED IN REGIONAL 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND THE GENERAL WEAKNESS ALOFT SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WITH SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASING MAY HAVE TO LOOK AT
THROWING IN SOME RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY FOR THE PRE- DAWN
HOURS LATER...OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ERLY WINDS ARE ALSO PROGGED TO PERSIST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS DECENT WITH
LOWER PRESSURES NOTED OVER THE SRN GULF.
25
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
UPDATE...SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO LOWER SE TX AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER ACADIANA NOTED. WILL GO ALONG WITH HRRR AND INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MARINE...INCREASING GRADIENT FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS. ADDED CAUTION FOR THOSE WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SWEENEY
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HEADING UPWARD. WITH
THAT...RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS...BUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BPT TERMINAL. CARRYING VCSH THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED
WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR GENERALLY FROM 20
TO BEYOND 60 NM SOUTH OF THE COAST. SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLIPPING BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION OVER THE
LAST DAY OR TWO AS DEW POINTS ARE NOW HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND MID 60 ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX AND CNTRL LA THIS MRNG.
ALOFT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY "AROUND 90" AND A BIT WARMER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS "AROUND 70 DEGREES". THEREFORE WE ARE
NOT LOOKING FOR A BIG CHANGE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE.
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING TO SEE A SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN LA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOWARDS TUESDAY. AS A RESULT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED OVER OUR REGION.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 91 67 91 65 / 20 10 10 10
LCH 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 90 70 89 68 / 20 10 20 10
BPT 89 70 91 70 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ475.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1033 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO LOWER SE TX AND DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER ACADIANA NOTED. WILL GO ALONG WITH HRRR AND INCLUDE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...INCREASING GRADIENT FROM THE NORTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
OUTER WATERS. ADDED CAUTION FOR THOSE WATERS EAST OF INTRACOASTAL
CITY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SWEENEY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LOSE ITS GRIP OVER THE
REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HEADING UPWARD. WITH
THAT...RADAR SHOWING SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS.
EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION TODAY TO REMAIN OVER THE NEAR
COASTAL WATERS...BUT COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE BPT TERMINAL. CARRYING VCSH THERE. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED
WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.
23
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 505 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET PATTERN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL. A FEW SHOWERS NOTED ON RADAR GENERALLY FROM 20
TO BEYOND 60 NM SOUTH OF THE COAST. SHOWERS ARE MOVING WESTWARD.
MOISTURE HAS BEEN SLIPPING BACK INTO THE NW GULF REGION OVER THE
LAST DAY OR TWO AS DEW POINTS ARE NOW HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S
ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND MID 60 ACROSS THE LAKES REGION OF SE
TX AND CNTRL LA THIS MRNG.
ALOFT THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
BEFORE BEGINNING TO BREAK OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW BETTER
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RUNNING NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY "AROUND 90" AND A BIT WARMER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS "AROUND 70 DEGREES". THEREFORE WE ARE
NOT LOOKING FOR A BIG CHANGE FOR THE ATMOSPHERE.
TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK LOOKING TO SEE A SURFACE LOW
TO MOVE OFF OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHWARD INTO EASTERN LA
AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI TOWARDS TUESDAY. AS A RESULT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED OVER OUR REGION.
19
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 91 67 91 65 / 20 10 10 10
LCH 90 70 90 70 / 20 10 20 10
LFT 90 70 89 68 / 20 10 20 10
BPT 89 70 91 70 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
GMZ475.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS THE LAST BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY HAVING DISSIPATED. WITH CONTINUED DRYING EXPECTED AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST FILLING AND SINKING SOUTH...WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE
CHANCE FOR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
LOCATION IN OUR AREA FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MILLE LACS LAKE
AREA THROUGH ST CLOUD. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF AGREE THAT FOG THAT WILL
ENGULF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL TRY AND EXPAND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS AREA. BEING LATE SEPTEMBER...IT TAKES A BIT MORE TIME TO BURN
OFF THE FOG AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF A LITTLE
MORE QUICKLY TOMORROW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TIGHTENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS PUSHING EAST
THROUGH MONTANA. WITH A MIXING HEIGHT NEAR 850MB...HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE HEAT WAVE /FOR LATE SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS/ THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES TO END SEPTEMBER. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE BEGINNING TO
LOOK BETTER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
RAINFALL CHANCES THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE
MORE QUESTIONABLE.
THE HEAT WILL BE ON RIGHT OUT THE GATE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE
SIT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE MPX
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STILL...MIX-DOWN HIGHS TO H85 WITH A SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC LAYER CORRECTION OFF THE ECMWF YIELDED HIGHS BETWEEN
81 AND 84 ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS...SO MIXED THESE MIX DOWN TEMPS INTO THE COOLER
CONSENSUS GRIDS TO GET HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. MONDAY WILL HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE THE GRADIENT IN HIGHS MONDAY...WITH CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY KEEPING CENTRAL MN IN THE
60S...WHILE PLACES FROM FAIRMONT TO EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT TOPPING OUT AT 80 ONE MORE TIME DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
AS FOR THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL START INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALL POST FRONTAL WITHIN A
ZONE OF FGEN...SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT GREAT...WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL GET OUR FIRST HEALTHY CANADIAN HIGH SINCE
THE 11TH OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE
30S/40S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
AROUND +4C WILL KEEP HIGHS TUE/WED AROUND WHERE OUR LOWS WERE THIS
MORNING /UPPER 50S TO MID 60S/. THESE COOLER TEMPS TO END SEPTEMBER
WILL ENSURE THAT THE SEPTEMBER OF 1897 STAYS ATOP THE LIST OF
WARMEST SEPTEMBERS OF ALL TIME IN THE TWIN CITIES...THOUGH THIS
SEPTEMBER WILL STILL SAFELY STAY IN THE TOP 5 WARMEST SEPTEMBERS ON
RECORD.
AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DRAMATICALLY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THE PROBLEM COMES WITH THE DEGREE WITH WHICH HOW FAR
NORTH THE MAIN POLAR WRLIES RETREAT INTO CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE
WESTERLIES CLEAR UP INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WHICH RESULTS IN
NUMEROUS HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSING OR EVEN COMPLETING CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP A LITTLE MORE FLOW
FATHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS CHAOTIC PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT YOU SEE WITH THE ECMWF. AT ANY RATE...NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
FOG IS STILL THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH STRATUS THAT WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO NORTHERN/EASTERN SITES AS WELL /KSTC-KRNH-KEAU/.
HAVE INCLUDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS AT THOSE SITES...WITH MVFR VSBYS AT
OTHER LOCATIONS. AFTER THE FOG/STRATUS CLEAR SATURDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT STAY
BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY.
KMSP...
STILL LOOKING AT FOG FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 3-5SM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. S WIND 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. N WIND 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
918 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN SOCKED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE DULUTH CWA AS OF
MID EVENING. AFTER SIGNIFICANT EROSION ON THE EDGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON..AS WELL AS FOG/CEILINGS LIFTING SUBSTANTIALLY..
NIGHTTIME IR SAT IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ONCE AGAIN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING..AND THE
INVERSION SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT..WE EXPECT THIS EXPANSION
TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT..WITH STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING BACK
ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH CWA WHERE IT ALREADY
HAS NOT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REFORM AS OF 9 PM ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND OVER AREAS AT THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF LK
SUPERIOR..VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR FROM MOOSE LAKE TO DULUTH..AND CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY LOWERING. AGAIN..WITH THE WEAK EAST FLOW/UPSLOPE IN
VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE..WE HAVE NO COMPELLING
REASON TO PART WITH THE DAYSHIFT-ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
JUST WENT INTO EFFECT. WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY..IF NOT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO REFORM OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SOME
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE AREAS FROM
DULUTH TO TWO HARBORS AND SILVER BAY.
TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON SATURDAY SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT..EVENTUALLY.
WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HANG ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN
RIDGE..AS IT WILL BE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW CAN REALLY
INCREASE AN BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THESE AREAS PER LATEST CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAK AS SEEN WITH
KDLH VWP ONLY SHOWING WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT AT 925MB/850MB.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS
LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS
REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE
DENSE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
AS THE WEAK HIGH DEPARTS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A COLD
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT
THE CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT MOST AREAS SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS AND BETTER MIXING. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE LAST TO SEE THE
CLOUDS/FOG LIFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIXTIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
SEE HIGHS FROM 70 TO 76.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS/GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND PCPN...AND GENERALLY FASTER THAN THEIR EARLIER
RUNS. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO CUT BACK ON THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER FORECAST FOR THIS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHES THE NW FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS BUFR AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...HAVING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND SPEED IN THE MIXING LAYER
IN BOTH MODELS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE THIS TO NEARLY 30 MPH WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AND
PROBABLY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE...DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WHICH WILL
NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER...BUT THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE LITTLE
IF NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND...RESULTING
IN SUNNY SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN JUST A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S. THIS LATEST
FORECAST HAS MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 OVER THE
SOUTH...BUT MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THIS SEVERAL DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING COLDER...AND MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST MUCH MORE
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD
FACE THE THREAT OF FROST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED
THEIR DIURNAL MINIMUM IN COVERAGE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS..AS
SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOW EXPANSION TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2-3 KFT AGL.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING..AND WE HAVE
BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN WELL INTO THE IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BY 03-05Z..INCLUDING KBRD/KHYR WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
CLEAR..BUT LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE ON THE NORTHEAST DOORSTEP PER SAT
IMAGERY AND SHUD SOCK IN WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
APPROACHING WAVE/FRONT AND EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SAT MORNING..AND ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO FINALLY MIX OUT OUT WEST
FIRST AT KBRD/KINL BY LATE MORNING. KDLH IS LIKELY TO BE THE LAST
SITE TO MIX OUT SAT WITH MOIST EAST FLOW STILL PUSHING UP AGAINST
THE TERRAIN RIDGE INTO MIDDAY. WE HAVE DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND
AT KDLH ON SAT..BUT IT STILL MAY BE TOO FAST. SSW WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT KINL AND PERHAPS KHIB/KBRD THE LAST 2-4
HOURS OF THIS 24 HOURS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 52 71 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
INL 52 74 58 75 / 0 0 0 40
BRD 54 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER/WFO DLH
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
717 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA IS THE LAST BIT OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO DISSIPATE...WITH THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALREADY HAVING DISSIPATED. WITH CONTINUED DRYING EXPECTED AND THE
LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST FILLING AND SINKING SOUTH...WHILE THE SURFACE
HIGH EXPANDS EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
CLEAR THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE CONCERN THEN BECOMES THE
CHANCE FOR FOG EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE
LOCATION IN OUR AREA FOR FOG LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE MILLE LACS LAKE
AREA THROUGH ST CLOUD. THE HRRR AND HOPWRF AGREE THAT FOG THAT WILL
ENGULF LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WILL TRY AND EXPAND SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THIS AREA. BEING LATE SEPTEMBER...IT TAKES A BIT MORE TIME TO BURN
OFF THE FOG AS WE SAW THIS MORNING...BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF A LITTLE
MORE QUICKLY TOMORROW.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TIGHTENING ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WESTERN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE STARTS PUSHING EAST
THROUGH MONTANA. WITH A MIXING HEIGHT NEAR 850MB...HIGH TEMPS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
BIG STORY FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE HEAT WAVE /FOR LATE SEPTEMBER
STANDARDS/ THAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE COOLER AIR
ARRIVES TO END SEPTEMBER. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN ARE BEGINNING TO
LOOK BETTER MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE
RAINFALL CHANCES THE REST OF THE WEEK ARE STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE
MORE QUESTIONABLE.
THE HEAT WILL BE ON RIGHT OUT THE GATE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WE
SIT OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE
SUNDAY...THOUGH THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE MPX
AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STILL...MIX-DOWN HIGHS TO H85 WITH A SUPER
ADIABATIC SFC LAYER CORRECTION OFF THE ECMWF YIELDED HIGHS BETWEEN
81 AND 84 ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN WHAT MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS...SO MIXED THESE MIX DOWN TEMPS INTO THE COOLER
CONSENSUS GRIDS TO GET HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ACROSS THE
AREA. MONDAY WILL HAVE THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND WE
WILL LIKELY SEE QUITE THE GRADIENT IN HIGHS MONDAY...WITH CLOUD
COVER/SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON LIKELY KEEPING CENTRAL MN IN THE
60S...WHILE PLACES FROM FAIRMONT TO EAU CLAIRE ON SOUTH WILL HAVE A
CHANCE AT TOPPING OUT AT 80 ONE MORE TIME DUE TO THE LATER ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER.
AS FOR THE FRONT...PRECIP CHANCES WILL START INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT IS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE ALL POST FRONTAL WITHIN A
ZONE OF FGEN...SO REMOVED THUNDER MENTION. AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT GREAT...WITH AMOUNTS MAINLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
BEHIND THIS FRONT WE WILL GET OUR FIRST HEALTHY CANADIAN HIGH SINCE
THE 11TH OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE
30S/40S TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE H85 TEMPS FALLING BACK TO
AROUND +4C WILL KEEP HIGHS TUE/WED AROUND WHERE OUR LOWS WERE THIS
MORNING /UPPER 50S TO MID 60S/. THESE COOLER TEMPS TO END SEPTEMBER
WILL ENSURE THAT THE SEPTEMBER OF 1897 STAYS ATOP THE LIST OF
WARMEST SEPTEMBERS OF ALL TIME IN THE TWIN CITIES...THOUGH THIS
SEPTEMBER WILL STILL SAFELY STAY IN THE TOP 5 WARMEST SEPTEMBERS ON
RECORD.
AFTER TUESDAY...MODEL SPREAD INCREASES DRAMATICALLY FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD. THE PROBLEM COMES WITH THE DEGREE WITH WHICH HOW FAR
NORTH THE MAIN POLAR WRLIES RETREAT INTO CANADA. THE ECMWF TAKES THE
WESTERLIES CLEAR UP INTO THE CANADIAN ARCTIC...WHICH RESULTS IN
NUMEROUS HIGHS AND LOWS CLOSING OR EVEN COMPLETING CUTTING OFF
ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES. THE GFS WANTS TO KEEP A LITTLE MORE FLOW
FATHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN A SLIGHTLY LESS CHAOTIC PATTERN BY THE
END OF THE WEEK THAN WHAT YOU SEE WITH THE ECMWF. AT ANY RATE...NOT
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH
RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
FOG IS THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS TAF PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CROSSOVER TEMPS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MVFR FOG...AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR TEMPORARILY...PRIMARILY FOR
EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI SITES. INCLUDED FOG TO SOME EXTENT AT
ALL SITES. WILL ALSO BE MONITORING CLOUD TRENDS
OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY HOW THE STRATUS CLOUDS OVER NORTHEAST MN
EVOLVE...AS SEVERAL MODELS HAVE THEM INCHING INTO CENTRAL MN/WI.
KAXN/STC/KRNH WOULD BE MOST AT RISK. AFTER THE FOG/STRATUS CLEAR
SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST BUT
STAY BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH TOMORROW.
KMSP...
STILL LOOKING AT FOG FOR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. CURRENT
EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR 4-5SM.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. S WIND 10-15 KT.
MON...VFR...POSSIBLE MVFR WITH SHRA LATE. WIND SW BCMG NW 5-10 KT.
TUE...VFR. N WIND 5-10KT.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPD
LONG TERM...MPG
AVIATION...LS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAK AS SEEN WITH
KDLH VWP ONLY SHOWING WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT AT 925MB/850MB.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS
LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS
REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE
DENSE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
AS THE WEAK HIGH DEPARTS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A COLD
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT
THE CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT MOST AREAS SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS AND BETTER MIXING. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE LAST TO SEE THE
CLOUDS/FOG LIFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIXTIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
SEE HIGHS FROM 70 TO 76.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS/GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND PCPN...AND GENERALLY FASTER THAN THEIR EARLIER
RUNS. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO CUT BACK ON THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER FORECAST FOR THIS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHES THE NW FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS BUFR AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...HAVING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND SPEED IN THE MIXING LAYER
IN BOTH MODELS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE THIS TO NEARLY 30 MPH WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AND
PROBABLY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE...DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WHICH WILL
NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER...BUT THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE LITTLE
IF NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND...RESULTING
IN SUNNY SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN JUST A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S. THIS LATEST
FORECAST HAS MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 OVER THE
SOUTH...BUT MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THIS SEVERAL DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING COLDER...AND MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST MUCH MORE
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD
FACE THE THREAT OF FROST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO HAVE REACHED
THEIR DIURNAL MINIMUM IN COVERAGE IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS..AS
SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SLOW EXPANSION TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST
APPEARS TO HAVE RESUMED WITH PERSISTENT LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2-3 KFT AGL.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS EVENING..AND WE HAVE
BROUGHT ALL TERMINALS DOWN WELL INTO THE IFR/LIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES BY 03-05Z..INCLUDING KBRD/KHYR WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY
CLEAR..BUT LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE ON THE NORTHEAST DOORSTEP PER SAT
IMAGERY AND SHUD SOCK IN WITHIN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF THIS
TAF PERIOD.
APPROACHING WAVE/FRONT AND EASTERN EDGE OF STRONG SSWRLY LOW LEVEL
JET AXIS SHOULD LEAD TO A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
SAT MORNING..AND ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO FINALLY MIX OUT OUT WEST
FIRST AT KBRD/KINL BY LATE MORNING. KDLH IS LIKELY TO BE THE LAST
SITE TO MIX OUT SAT WITH MOIST EAST FLOW STILL PUSHING UP AGAINST
THE TERRAIN RIDGE INTO MIDDAY. WE HAVE DELAYED THE CLEARING TREND
AT KDLH ON SAT..BUT IT STILL MAY BE TOO FAST. SSW WINDS ARE LIKELY
TO BECOME RATHER GUSTY AT KINL AND PERHAPS KHIB/KBRD THE LAST 2-4
HOURS OF THIS 24 HOURS TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 52 71 56 74 / 0 0 0 0
INL 52 74 58 75 / 0 0 0 40
BRD 54 76 59 77 / 0 0 0 0
HYR 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
ASX 51 75 56 76 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT SATURDAY
FOR MNZ020-021-037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
109 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT WITH DREARY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG OFF THE
LAKE...GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WARMER TOMORROW...BUT SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ABOUT WHERE WE WERE EXPECTING IT. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS
TAPERED OFF FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING AND ANOTHER WAVE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. WHILE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW DUE TO STORM MOTION...SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM TONIGHT DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
MOIST NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO
1.4 ALREADY EXIST ACROSS THE AREA PER RAP/MESOANALYSIS AND EVEN
HIGHER PWATS ARE ABOUT TO BE ADVECTED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. CURRENT RAP INDICATES PWATS WILL RISE TO
1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES OR HIGHER FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR EAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE SOUTH SHORE
OF WISCONSIN IS ESPECIALLY PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AFTER HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON BROUGHT AROUND TWO INCHES TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
SIMPLY RUNS OFF INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...SATURATED GROUNDS COULD LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO LEECH LAKE
AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THURSDAY THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
DISSIPATES AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND
WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET
RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING. TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MAY BE
SOME SHOWERS THAT LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY AND WE INCREASED
THEM AND THEY MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO DEPART. HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM
THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT WELL WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION AND SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES THEN FALL INTO THE SIXTIES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 109 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KHYR. CIGS
WILL LOWER AS PRECIPITATION MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER UPSTREAM OBS
SITES ARE REPORTING MVFR/VFR CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT IFR CIGS ARE
OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS THE GFS MOS HINTS AT THIS POSSIBILITY
ALONG WITH SURROUNDING SITES SHOWING IFR CIGS. LIFR VISBY IS
EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME AT KBRD AND KDLH BETWEEN 08-13Z. LATEST
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW VISBY DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT THINK WINDS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FROM
PREVAILING. OTHER SITES WILL ALSO SEE LOWER VISBY...BUT REMAIN IN
THE IFR/MVFR RANGE.
PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BETWEEN 14Z AND 21Z...PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP/NAM GUIDANCE. KHYR...KBRD AND KINL WILL SEE CIGS
AND VISBY IMPROVE TO MVFR/VFR BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. STAYED
PESSIMISTIC AT KDLH AND KHIB WITH IFR CIGS AS ALL THE LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS. HINTED AT FOG FORMATION AT KDLH AND KHIB
TOWARDS THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF CYCLE...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND DUE TO THE RECENT PRECIPITATION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 69 53 74 / 10 10 0 0
INL 51 71 54 76 / 20 20 0 0
BRD 54 74 56 77 / 10 10 0 0
HYR 51 74 52 74 / 10 10 0 0
ASX 51 70 53 75 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ140>147.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
628 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR DRENCHING RAINS THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 19Z. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF AND
WEAKENS. LATEST RAP INDICATES LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM FORECAST.
GENERAL RIDGING THEN COVERS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY
EVENING. LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BEYOND THIS TIME THE FORECAST
BECOMES LESS CONFIDENT AS GFS AND EURO SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN SOLUTIONS. EURO BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. SMALL POPS COVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
DECREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EASTERLY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR FOG AT ALL SITES
AROUND 12Z...THEN CLEAR SKIES AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AT OR UNDER 12KT
ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
H5 ANALYSIS THIS MORNING HAD A POSITIVE TILTED RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A CLOSED LOW WAS NOTED OVER NERN NEBRASKA
THIS MORNING...WITH A SECONDARY LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. BASED
ON CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...THE NORTHERN MOST UPPER LEVEL LOW
WAS JUST WEST OF NORFOLK NEBRASKA. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE LOW...HAVE TRACKED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG HIGHWAY 281
FROM SPENCER TO BARTLETT THIS MORNING...AND HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED IN
COVERAGE THIS AFTN. FURTHER WEST OF THE LOW....A BROAD SHIELD OF
CLOUDINESS EXTENDED WEST TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WITH A MIXTURE OF
LOW TO MID CLOUDS PRESENT. OVER THE PAST 1 TO 2 HRS...THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THIS CLOUD COVER HAS BEGUN TO BURN OFF WITH CLEARING NOTED
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND SWRN NEBRASKA.
AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WAS NOTED OVER NORFOLK NEBRASKA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SSW INTO CENTRAL AND SWRN KS. WEST OF THE
TROUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE PRESENT FROM WEST OF THE LOW TO THE
PANHANDLE. ACROSS THE PANHANDLE...WINDS WERE LIGHTER FROM THE NORTH
OR WEST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT...RANGED FROM 65 AT AINSWORTH TO
77 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE SHORT TERM...THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...ARE PRECIPITATION AND FOG. STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER
CONTINUES TO SIT OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND MAY
RETROGRADE A LITTLE ON FRIDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...KEPT ISO/SCT
POPS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS BANDS OF WEAK RAIN ROTATE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ALONG THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW. LOWERED QPF
AS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WAS BEING RECORDED AS DRIZZLE BY 20Z.
THE TRICKY PART IS HOW FAR WEST THE THICK STRATUS WILL STRETCH THIS
EVENING. THE PANHANDLE HAS STAYED CLEAR FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND
BREAKS IN THE COVER HAVE COME AND GONE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 83
CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...THINKING THE STRATUS WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND WESTWARD BY 25/06Z AS THE SURFACE LOW TREKS SOUTHWEST. NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A 5KFT SATURATED LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IN
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...ABOUT 2KFT THICK FROM
KLBF TO KVTN...AND RELATIVELY SHALLOW IN THE PANHANDLE. THE NAM ALSO
INDICATES SOME LIFT AND SATURATION AT THE 300K SURFACE IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...SO INTRODUCED DRIZZLE BEGINNING
09Z FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST...THE RUC AND GFS WERE AGREEING WITH
SATURATION IN THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...BUT THINKING THE WESTERN HALF WILL LIKELY
EXPERIENCE MORE FOG WHILE EASTERN HALF HAS MORE DRIZZLE AND STRATUS.
FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS...SO UPGRADED TO AREAS OF FOG BETWEEN THE PANHANDLE AND
HIGHWAY 83. SURFACE WIND PROFILES WILL ALSO BE MORE FAVORABLE TOWARD
FOG FARTHER WEST...AS SPEEDS STAY NEAR 10 MPH WHERE DRIZZLE IS
MENTIONED. SOME FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT ON
COVERAGE DUE TO WIND.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...CONTINUED PATCHY DRIZZLE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS SURFACE WINDS TURN EAST AND ADVECT IN MOIST
AIR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE LOW LEVELS NEARLY SATURATED...SO
ANY BIT OF LIFT COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE
FOR MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS LOWER TO MID 40S IN THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...BUT GENERALLY DID
NOT GO THAT LOW. BUMPED UP A DEGREE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
DUE TO PERSISTENT STRATUS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS. CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO A LARGE GRADIENT IN MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FRIDAY. THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY REMAIN UNDER FAIR
SKIES...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
UNDER THE STRATUS IN THE EAST...LIMITED HIGHS TO THE LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE
MID RANGE IS FOG POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES. FOR
FRIDAY EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL DRIFT TO
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY EVENING. ENOUGH WEAK FORCING IS PRESENT TO
FACILITATE LOW POPS IN THESE AREAS FRIDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
MOIST LAYER IS FAIRLY SHALLOW FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT...SO
THINKING HERE IS MORE OF A DRIZZLE SETUP FRIDAY
EVENING...PARTICULARLY WITH DRYING ALOFT AND WEAK LIFT NOTED IN THE
SATURATED LOW LAYER. AFTER LATE EVENING...THE THREAT FOR FOG WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST ALONG WITH A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. ATTM...THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN FOR FOG IS
WEST OF HIGHWAY 183. EAST OF THIS ROUTE...BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE MORE
INDICATIVE OF STRATUS AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS SOMEWHAT DRIER. ON
SATURDAY...THE REMNANTS OF THE LOW WILL FILL IN OVER SRN KS AS A
POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA. SRLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY IN THE WEST AS SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER NERN WYOMING. INCREASED SRLY WINDS...WILL
ALLOW CLOUDINESS TO DISPERSE BY MIDDAY SAT ALLOWING HIGHS TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH
OVERNIGHT DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S. EVEN WITH DECENT BL
MOISTURE PRESENT SAT NIGHT...AM NOT TOO CONCERNED ABOUT FOG ATTM
WITH SRLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF WIND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL LEAD TO A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. ON SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE FURTHER ON SUNDAY AS MUCH WARMER H85 AIR PUSHES INTO THE
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. INCREASED HIGHS INTO THE
UPPER 80S IN THE WEST...AND WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF WE SEE A 90+
TEMP IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OR FAR SW SUNDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE
FCST H85 TEMPS OF 25 TO 29C.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
MONDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S. A PACIFIC COOL
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT...STALLING
OVER SRN NEBRASKA ON TUESDAY. MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL INCREASE
OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE
THREAT FOR SHOWERS/TSRAS CONTINUED. BEYOND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ECMWF
AND GFS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. THE ECMWF BUILDS A
RIDGE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS WEDS/THURSDAY...WHICH WOULD LEAD TO DRY
AND VERY WARM TEMPERATURES. THE 12Z GFS THIS MORNING HAS A LESS
AMPLIFIED SOLUTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH FAVORABLE JET
DYNAMICS FOR PRECIPITATION WEDS THROUGH THURSDAY. INHERITED FCST HAD
A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION WEDS-THUS. GIVEN THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES...WILL LEAVE IN MENTION OF PCPN TO MAINTAIN A CONSISTENT
FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA
THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE SITS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. BREAKS IN THE STRATUS DECK WILL RAISE CEILINGS
TEMPORARILY...MAINLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF. OVERNIGHT...THE WINDS WILL LIGHTEN
ALLOWING FOG OR STRATUS TO REDEVELOP. MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM 25/09Z TO 25/15Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...CLB
AVIATION...DS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1038 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DRY OUT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY
WITH A DAILY RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS
UPDATE. TWEAKED PRECIP TO FIT EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS FROM THE CURRENT
RADAR...AND ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER WHERE SKIES ARE PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT
WORST CURRENTLY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES
EITHER. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD CENTRAL TENNESSEE...MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW THAT CAME ASHORE IN
SOUTH CAROLINA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS DISSIPATING ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WITH US MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...HELPING MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY CANADA. THIS HIGH IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BUT
IS BEING HELD BACK BY THE OLD LOW OVER GEORGIA AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES DOWN INTO NORTHERNMOST
SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE BEACHES WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD WELL NORTH OF THE TROUGH
WHERE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE EXISTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT THE FLOW CHANGES DIRECTION CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN THE 300K AND 305K SURFACES...EASTERLY VS. SOUTHEASTERLY...
HELPING EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE IN OBSERVED MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE
SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE COLUMNS THAT HAVE
A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE HRRR/RUC MODELS SHOW THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA PLUS THE
NORTHERN PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS ACROSS THIS
REGION ARE IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE. POPS ARE LESS...20-40
PERCENT...NEAR AND SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AND LAKE CITY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WARM FOR THIS LATE IN THE
YEAR...NEAR 68-70 WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN JET WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
GEORGIA TODAY WILL REMAIN W OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ENDING UP
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY. WEAK RIDING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SUN...AN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH 25 KFT OR SO...EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL.
HOWEVER DEVELOPING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY...AND MODELS DO SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500
J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...1.75 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE DEEPEST NEARER TO THE
COAST..ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE N OF THE
FORECAST AREA SAT AND SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW...WELL TO OUR W AND THIS SUGGESTS LESS IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...WILL CARRY LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...CHANCE ON SAT AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
COAST...MAINLY LIKELY. WILL THEN TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR STRUGGLES TO MAKE
INROADS THIS FAR EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CAN NOT KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND STILL EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL SHRINK THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
RETROGRADES AND DEVELOPS INTO A LARGER SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THIS
LOW PHASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND MOVES TO THE
EAST ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE EACH DAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY POPS
DROP CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ADDRESS
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. NO REAL
HEADLINERS OR DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...BROAD UPPER LOW QUITE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST INTO TENNESSEE. A BROAD BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
IS EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW. MODELS ARE
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THAT THIS LARGE BAND OF MOISTURE WILL
ONLY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ANY CONVECTION CURRENTLY IN THE REGION WILL
LIKELY DISSIPATE FOR DIURNAL REASONS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
A VCSH MENTION WOULD LIKELY SUFFICE FOR ALL TERMINALS...BUT THERE
PROBABLY WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AT ONE OR MORE OF THE
TERMINALS. NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BECOME SOLIDLY IFR AS
WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH STILL A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. AGAIN
IF WE HEAT UP WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION...MORE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...LATEST WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 20
KNOTS ALONG THE BEACHES NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WE`RE REALLY MISSING
THAT WAVE HEIGHT DATA FROM THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY
(NOAA ID 41038) WHICH WAS DAMAGED BY A FISHING BOAT A MONTH OR SO
AGO. LATEST HRRR AND RUC STILL HAVE THE TRENDS RIGHT AND VERY FEW
CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. I DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT SUSTAINED NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM
FOLLOWS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNS THAT A NOCTURNAL NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE IS TAKING SHAPE AGAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE LOOKOUT.
FOR EACH OF THE PAST THREE NIGHTS WIND SPEEDS HAVE ACCELERATED
WELL BEYOND MODEL FORECASTS AT ALL COASTAL OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
IN ONSLOW BAY. I HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECASTS TO A SOLID 15
KNOTS IN THIS AREA WITH SEAS HOLDING AT A CHOPPY 4 FEET. SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT SHOULD PREDOMINATE WITH
SEAS 2-4 FEET. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS
COMPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UP AGAINST A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY
LIGHT...BUT A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANY TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
WATERS AND MAY OSCILLATE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH HEATING. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY...ENE TO ESE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE WATERS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE SWELL ENERGY AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND THE SYNOPTIC DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE
WEAKLY FORCED WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIRECTION TURNING TO EASTERLY AND POSSIBLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER
END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON
AND NORTHEAST WINDS REACHED 5.99 FEET MLLW AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH...7.39 FEET MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH...AND 5.82 FEET MLLW AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. TIDES WILL REMAIN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH EACH OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION...
BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WILL PRODUCE WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EXTENDING FROM
UPSTATE SC INTO SWRN NC WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM NW GA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TN WITH LOWERING DPVA OVER CENTRAL NC.
ASSOCIATED POTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SW TO
NE BUT REMAIN ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NE CWA. WITH A STEADY INFLUX OF
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR (INCLUDING A
STOUT 925-850 MB JETLET FROM THE ESE) PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT AND
PW VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE NE CWA... ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH/NE OF A LINE FROM INT
TO RDU TO GSB. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS TO THE SW OF HERE...
WITH CONTINUED 295K-305K MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND HIGH MOISTURE
INFLUX BUT WANING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NSSL-WRF / HRRR / 3KM
NAMRR ALL SUPPORT THIS TREND... BOOSTING CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN THE NE CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH... BUT IN GENERAL THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT... ALBEIT
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD
TREND TO MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WRN/SRN CWA AS THE
AIR DRIES OUT ABOVE -10C... NOTED BY THE RELATIVE DRY SLOT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOW OVER SC AND WRN NC. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... AND EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE JUST A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN CURRENT VALUES... FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE UPPER 60S NW TO SE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL TN INTO WRN KY WHILE
FILLING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TX AND NE MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S AND
SE TO A MORE ANTICYCLONIC WEAK FLOW FROM THE WSW... WITH DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE BOTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. MODELS STILL DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL PW... FROM 1.5" NW TO OVER
2.0" EAST OF I95... AND MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES BUT TO A BIT LESSER
DEGREE (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL)... SO THE THREAT OF PATCHY RAIN
SHOULD PERSIST. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND SNAPSHOT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN TODAY HOWEVER... MEANING THAT WHILE MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN... IT WON`T BE AS STEADY OR WITH QUITE THE
INTENSITY AS WE`VE GOT TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER COASTAL NC
NEAR THE PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGH... AND WELL TO OUR NW OVER THE
SW VA MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN UPLIFT WILL COME INTO PLAY... BUT
OTHERWISE CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NE TO LIKELY SW TO START THE
DAY... FOLLOWED BY A DOWNWARD TREND TO LIKELY NE AND GOOD CHANCE SW
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WE`LL STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...
RESISTENT TO MIXING IN THE VERTICAL (LACK OF BOTH CONVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE) AND HORIZONTALLY (DUE TO THE IN SITU STABLE POOL BEING
LOCKED IN OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS BY TERRAIN... THE COASTAL
TROUGH... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT STIRRING). AS SUCH...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY
A LUCKY FEW (PROBABLY IN THE SE CWA) HAVING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SUNSHINE). EXPECT HIGHS MINIMALLY HIGHER THAN TODAY... FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S NW TO SE. LOWS SAT NIGHT 60-68 WITH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FINALLY ARRIVING ON MONDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT
SHIFTS WEST AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION...THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINS MOIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH PW VALUES STILL AT
OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND
SHIFTING NORTH AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN AN ARC FROM THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN NORTHWEST INTO THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SEVERAL
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD WHERE A WEDGE AIRMASS REMAINS
ESTABLISHED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST. MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN
THE 60S.
A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH CENTRAL NC BEING
LOCATED IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER. THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK GOOD.
THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LATE
WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE
THURSDAY. HPC GUIDANCE POPS HAVE TRENDED UP NOTABLY AND WE WILL
FOLLOW THAT TREND WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAYS FORECAST APPEARS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEW OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
THE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DON`T SUPPORT THAT SOLUTION. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE. -
BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 805 PM FRIDAY...
CENTRAL NC REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER
BASIN...WITH MOISTURE EASTERLY FLOW AND WIDESPREAD RAIN OVER THE
REGION.
THIS SET OF TAFS IS COMPLICATED BY A LAYER OF DRY AIR CENTERED
AROUND 850MB THAT IS ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST AND LEADING TO
SOME VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN...AT LEAST
TEMPORARILY. HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PERIOD OF MVFR AND/OR VFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLY FROM KRWI TO KRDU...AND EVEN AS FAR WEST
AS KGSO/KINT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER AT THOSE SITES. ITS
DIFFICULT TO TELL HOW FAR SOUTH AND HOW LONG THE SCATTERED CEILINGS
COULD LAST...AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 3000FT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP IN MOISTURE AND SHOULD SERVE TO MAINTAIN OR
REDEVELOP MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS. MEANWHILE...PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE...WITH THE HEAVIEST FROM KRDU NORTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS A CONCERN GIVEN 35-40KT OF EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
AROUND 2K FT. WHILE SURFACE WINDS WILL STAY UP AND KEEP THE LOW-
LEVELS MIXED...THERE HAVE BEEN ENOUGH PILOT REPORTS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AND TURBULENCE TODAY TO SUPPORT A MENTION IN THE TAF.
OUTLOOK... POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. SOME MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY BUT WILL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY REDEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BRING ANOTHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE`RE STILL GETTING RAINFALL REPORTS IN... BUT BY RADAR
ESTIMATION... WE`VE HAD ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF ACROSS CENTRAL NC... ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAFFIC SNARLS AND
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... BUT NO NOTABLE RIVER OR
CREEK FLOODING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH... MAINLY
IN THE NRN CWA... BUT OVERALL ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE WET ROADS AND PONDING OF WATER HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN A TRAVEL ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...22
HYDROLOGY...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1244 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEST FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...UPDATED TO ISSUE COASTAL FLOOD ADVSY FOR
OB DARE...AND FOR AREAS ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE
RIVER. SEE COASTAL FLOODING SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
ALSO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY SRN OBX AND SRN COASTAL
SECTIONS REST OF NIGHT...BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MESO
MODELS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE UPDATE. HAVE NOTED
A BIT MORE DRIZZLE THAN RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SO HAVE ADJUSTED WX
TO REFLECT THIS. APART FROM THIS COSMETIC ISSUE...THE FORECAST IS
ON TRACK FOR A BREEZY...CLOUDY AND DRIZZLY NIGHT ALONG OUR COAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...NO REAL CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN THAT
HAS GRIPPED THE REGION THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH INTO
THE CAROLINAS IS PRODUCING A DAMMING/WEDGE SURFACE PATTERN WHILE A
WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS SLOWLY RETROGRESSING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS BEEN THE THE CASE THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS THE MOST DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONCERNS
DETERMINING THE LOCATION, TIMING, AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THE PAST 3 DAYS IN FORECASTING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. THUS WILL DECREASE POPS FOR THE
EVENING HOURS TO 20-30% AS RADAR INDICATES WHAT LITTLE
PRECIPITATION THERE IS WAS LOCATED MAINLY OFFSHORE. WILL MAINTAIN
CURRENT 30-50% POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO MONITOR
PRECIPITATION TRENDS BUT THESE MAY BE OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO BE
DECREASED WITH THE 10 PM UPDATE. L0W TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR WEST TO LOWER 70S COAST WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/NAM12 AND
ECMWF REGARDING HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AS
SURFACE LOW AS SURFACE LOW MOVES WEST AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GOOD MOISTURE
FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC
BRINGING WET AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MDLS SHOW OFFSHORE CSTL TRF BECOMING LESS
DEFINED AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION WITH PRECIP WTR VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AS MDLS SHOW GOOD QPF OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INLAND AND LOWER 70S BEACHES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWER...SOME HEAVY EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC TRF IN
THE AREA AND WEAK DIFL ALOFT. CONT LIKELY POPS THRU SAT NIGHT AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSS IN SPOTS ESPCLY COAST.
SOME DIFF IN MDLS CONT LATER IN WEEKEND WITH GFS QUICKER TO LIFT
SFC LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE N OF THE REGION SUNDAY. FOR NOW CONT
PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUNDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY THRU SUNDAY WITH MILD
LOWS IN 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.
MONDAY THRU WED...LOW PRES PROGGED TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH GREATER INSOLATION EXPECTED AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VARIABILITY AT THE INLAND
(ISO/PGV) TAF SITES THIS EVENING FROM MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT OAJ AND EWN. LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. MOIST OF THE NUMERICAL AVIATION
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z) WHILE THE NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR CEILING FORECAST AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ON THURSDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CEILINGS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...POOR FLYING THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH LEAD TO BOUTS OF SHRA WITH PROLONGED
PDS PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...WITH SOME IFR
EXPECTED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER SUN AND ESPCLY MON
WITH LESS SHRA AND PROB MORE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...RAISED POPS TO LIKELY OVER SRN AND
CENTRAL WATERS REST OF NIGHT...NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 1030 PM WEDNESDAY...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE UPDATE WITH STRONG
NE FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS 20-25KTS GUSTING
AROUND 30KTS. SEAS 6-11 FT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY
START TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT DECREASING
THE GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
PER LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 10
FEET. AS WITH THE WINDS...SEAS WILL SUSBIDE A BIT ON THURSDAY BUT
SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE AT MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCNLY STRONG NE/E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE. THE TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH AND AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST THAT WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
OF ENC ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH WINDS 15-25KT WITH SEAS 4-8
FT HIGHEST NORTH.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND. GFS QUICKLY LIFTS LOW OVER AND N OF REGION SUNDAY
WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT TO THE S THRU SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO LONGER
PERIOD OF STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS. CONT PREV FCST WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11
FT CNTRL AND N AND 4 TO 6 FEET S THRU THE WEEKEND.
MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH WIND DIR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AGREE ON
DIMINISHING WINDS...MAINLY FROM A NRLY DIR. AS WINDS DIMINISH
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT N AND 3 TO 5 FT S LATER MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 AM THURSDAY...POSTED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM
TODAY FOR OBX N OF HAT...AND CARTERET/CRAVEN/PAMLICO COUNTIES
ADJACENT TO SRN PAMLICO SOUND AND NEUSE RIVER. REPORT FROM
CLUBFOOT CREEK IN CRAVEN COUNTY OF WATER LEVEL 3 FT ABOVE
NORMAL...AND ALSO SOME OVERWASH NEAR BUXTON. WINDS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT PERSISTENT NE FETCH WILL
LIKELY KEEP WATER LEVELS ELEVATED THROUGH THIS AFTN.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 6 TO 9 FOOT SURF ALONG WITH A HIGH THREAT OF
RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND...BUT ROUGH SEAS AND STRONG NE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
OCEANSIDE IMPACTS, SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS VULNERABLE TO STRONG NE
WINDS COULD SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES, WHICH WOULD BE
EXACERBATED BY THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS HOPEFULLY CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
NCZ093>095-103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ130-131-135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ156-
158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC/LEP/JBM
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME/CTC/LEP/JBM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CTC/JBM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1250 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
THE MAIN CHANGES MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE
THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
POPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE RADAR...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IN ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1120 UTC...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY INTO THE SOURIS BASIN. FLOOD ADVISORIES ACROSS THE BASIN
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH 1630-1700 UTC TODAY TO ASSESS ANY FLOOD
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY AND THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST AND NORTH AT SOME POINT
LATER THIS MORNING. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE NEAR
SHERWOOD MOVING EAST WITH TIME. A CONTINUOUS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0600 AM CDT.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION AREA TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND EXIT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z-17Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TAKE
CONTROL OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE RAP13/HRRR/NAM REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LOW
VISIBILITIES/LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND CLOUDS BETWEEN 200FT
AND 1000FT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING HERE
AT BISMARCK...AS WELL AS OTHER SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
SITES WHICH FURTHER SUPPORT THE STRATUS AND FOG. MAY BE ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME POINT AFTER THIS DISCUSSION IS
DISSEMINATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH 80F IN THE FAR WEST.
ALTHOUGH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS COMMENCE LATER TODAY...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...KBIS/KJMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO
A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO COOLER BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. VLIFR CONDITIONS AT KJMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL
20Z. LIGHT WINDS AT KBIS AND KJMS MAY LEAD TO EARLY MORNING
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO MENTIONED VCFG
AND SCT CLOUDS AT 500FT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
938 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
POPS WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE RADAR...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST
IN ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1120 UTC...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY INTO THE SOURIS BASIN. FLOOD ADVISORIES ACROSS THE BASIN
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH 1630-1700 UTC TODAY TO ASSESS ANY FLOOD
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY AND THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST AND NORTH AT SOME POINT
LATER THIS MORNING. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE NEAR
SHERWOOD MOVING EAST WITH TIME. A CONTINUOUS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0600 AM CDT.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION AREA TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND EXIT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z-17Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TAKE
CONTROL OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE RAP13/HRRR/NAM REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LOW
VISIBILITIES/LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND CLOUDS BETWEEN 200FT
AND 1000FT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING HERE
AT BISMARCK...AS WELL AS OTHER SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
SITES WHICH FURTHER SUPPORT THE STRATUS AND FOG. MAY BE ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME POINT AFTER THIS DISCUSSION IS
DISSEMINATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH 80F IN THE FAR WEST.
ALTHOUGH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS COMMENCE LATER TODAY...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...KBIS/KJMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO
A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO COOLER BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS/VSBYS
LIFT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR 18Z-20Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
KBIS AND KJMS MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. WITH
STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO MENTIONED VCFG AND
SCT CLOUDS AT 500FT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NDZ002>004-010>012-021>023-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
629 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
GIVEN WEBCAM TRENDS THROUGH 1120 UTC...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY INTO THE SOURIS BASIN. FLOOD ADVISORIES ACROSS THE BASIN
WERE ALSO EXTENDED THROUGH 1630-1700 UTC TODAY TO ASSESS ANY FLOOD
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY AND THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST AND NORTH AT SOME POINT
LATER THIS MORNING. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE NEAR
SHERWOOD MOVING EAST WITH TIME. A CONTINUOUS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0600 AM CDT.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION AREA TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND EXIT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z-17Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TAKE
CONTROL OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE RAP13/HRRR/NAM REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LOW
VISIBILITIES/LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND CLOUDS BETWEEN 200FT
AND 1000FT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING HERE
AT BISMARCK...AS WELL AS OTHER SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
SITES WHICH FURTHER SUPPORT THE STRATUS AND FOG. MAY BE ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME POINT AFTER THIS DISCUSSION IS
DISSEMINATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH 80F IN THE FAR WEST.
ALTHOUGH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS COMMENCE LATER TODAY...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...KBIS/KJMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO
A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO COOLER BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH 18Z BEFORE CIGS/VSBYS
LIFT TO MVFR AND THEN VFR 18Z-20Z THURSDAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
KBIS AND KJMS MAY LEAD TO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. WITH
STILL UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...HAVE OPTED TO MENTIONED VCFG AND
SCT CLOUDS AT 500FT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NDZ002>004-010>012-021>023-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
321 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WEBCAMS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SUPPORT AN ADVISORY AND THE HRRR VISIBILITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED WEST AND NORTH AT SOME POINT
LATER THIS MORNING. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE NEAR
SHERWOOD MOVING EAST WITH TIME. A CONTINUOUS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FEW AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORIES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH 0600 AM CDT.
EXPECT THE PRECIPITATION AREA TO GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND EXIT
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 15Z-17Z THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...STRATUS AND POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TAKE
CONTROL OVER THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE RAP13/HRRR/NAM REMAIN PERSISTENT IN DEVELOPING LOW
VISIBILITIES/LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE...AND CLOUDS BETWEEN 200FT
AND 1000FT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN LOWERING HERE
AT BISMARCK...AS WELL AS OTHER SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL
SITES WHICH FURTHER SUPPORT THE STRATUS AND FOG. MAY BE ISSUING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT SOME POINT AFTER THIS DISCUSSION IS
DISSEMINATED. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NORTHEAST
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS HEIGHTS RISE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
DECREASING CLOUDS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HIGHS IN THE 70S TODAY WITH 80F IN THE FAR WEST.
ALTHOUGH DRYING AND WARMING CONDITIONS COMMENCE LATER TODAY...NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND TO SOME EXTENT THE GFS SHOW A SHALLOW LAYER
OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL...KBIS/KJMS
AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS DUE TO
A WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 149 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
A WARM UP INTO SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK
HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWEST US
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...WITH A POTENTIAL BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THUS...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO SATURDAY...WITH
WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO PROPAGATE ACROSS THE STATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...A RETURN TO COOLER BUT STILL NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 60S ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 149
AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS FORECAST TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR AS WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG DEVELOP BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO BE MAINTAINED
UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER...KBIS/KJMS MAY RETURN BACK INTO MVFR STATUS AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY AS LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE TO BRING IN SHALLOW LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY FOR
NDZ034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1211 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
WEST-EAST BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING FROM NEAR
POWERS LAKE TO LANSFORD AND EAST TO ROLETTE. EXTENDED THE AREAL
FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ROLETTE COUNTY UNTIL 530AM CDT THURSDAY AS
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MARCH ACROSS THIS AREA REST OF
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WE ALSO JUST ISSUED A NEW AREAL FLOOD
ADVISORY FOR NORTHEAST MOUNTRAIL/NORTHERN WARD/SOUTHERN
RENVILLE/AND SOUTHWEST BOTTINEAU COUNTIES AS CELLS CONTINUE TO
TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. THE OTHER ISSUE FOR THE REST OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT IS CLOUDS AND FOG. THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM ALL SHOWING
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WITH DENSE FOG.
ANTICIPATING THAT THIS WILL OCCUR GIVEN CONTINUED MOIST
EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW AND SOME UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SUPPORTING THIS
POTENTIAL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
MAIN UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS FOR ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL...AND ANTICIPATED RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH LATER TONIGHT. SOME
INDICATIONS OF THE SHOWERS CAN ALREADY BE SEEN OVER NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST TIME LAGGED HRRR BRINGS
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDER INTO THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM AROUND 7 TO 10 UTC. MAY NEED TO
EXTEND CURRENT AREAL FLOOD ADVISORY IF THIS PANS OUT...WITH
DOPPLER ESTIMATES OF UP TO 4 INCHES ACROSS ROLETTE COUNTY. ONLY
GROUND TRUTH RECEIVED SO FAR WERE 1 INCH SOUTH OF BELCOURT AND
1.58 INCHES IN BOTTINEAU. BOTH OF THESE WERE AWAY FROM THE HIGHEST
ESTIMATES.
ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. FOG
ALREADY SETTLING IN AT KJMS. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR IN THE SOUTHWEST
AND WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUING INTO THE AREA...EXPECT LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE A GOOD BET HERE AS WELL. MOST ANY
LOCATION COULD SEE FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL THIS EVENING WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST NORTHEAST FROM AROUND
SHERWOOD TO BOTTINEAU AND ROLLA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OUT OF
THE AREA IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST MESO-SCALE MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL AND TRACKING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR BUT CURRENT POPS DO NOT REFLECT
THIS. WE DO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS REMAINING
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT SO THINK THIS WILL SUFFICE UNLESS WE SEE
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.
ADJUSTED SKY COVER AS WE HAVE CLEARED OUT OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN QUESTION HERE IS WILL WE CLOUD BACK UP LATER
TONIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING...HAVE
LEANED THIS WAY WITH THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH HIGH OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO
ONTARIO. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD LOW OFF THE BC COAST
WITH SPLIT FLOW OVER OUR REGION AS COMPACT LOW LIFTS LIFTS FROM
NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS IS RESULTING IN
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE A FEW
SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...UPPER LOW STARTS TO
OPEN UP AND PROGRESS EASTERLY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY WRAP INTO
THE AREA FROM THIS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THOUGH THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.
IN THE MEANTIME...A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL
KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH
BEFORE TAPERING TOWARDS EARLY MORNING. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE WHICH WILL KEEP LOW CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.
SOME MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME FOG...BUT WILL HOLD
OUT FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONTINUED LOW CLOUD COVER. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL HAVE LATER SHIFTS TAKE A LOOK AT THIS AND IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING FOG WILL BECOME A CONCERN.
ON THURSDAY...RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE
AVERAGE OVER MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SUPPORT BROAD UPPER RIDGE
OVER NORTH AMERICA EVENTUALLY BREAKING DOWN BY LATE WEEKEND AS
TROUGH MOVES INTO CENTRAL CANADA. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT WELL
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S BY SATURDAY BEFORE
DROPPING BACK TO 60S AND 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SOMEWHAT GREATER
UNCERTAINTY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...BUT LOW POPS CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED SUN/MONDAY AS UPPER
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. INSTABILITY IS ALSO LACKING...WITH THE GFS ONLY
INDICATING WEAK INSTABILITY ON MONDAY...SO ANY PRECIP WOULD BE
EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINATELY SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DETERIORATE TO IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS BETWEEN 08Z-
12Z THURSDAY AND BE MAINTAINED UNTIL 18Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
FORECAST THEREAFTER. WINDS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KT THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JNS
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
535 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WILL FEED
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO THE REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...
RESULTING IN A LENGTHY STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINFALL. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL HEADING INTO LATE SUNDAY AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 530 PM...LATEST SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION
OFF THE CENTRAL SC SHORE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A BAND OF COLDER
CLOUD TOPS HAS PIVOTED BACK TOWARD THE COAST...RESULTING IN WARMING
CLOUD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND CENTRAL GA. BASED
ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS...THE CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL MAY
SLIDE TOWARD THE WEST...FOLLOWED BY CLUSTERS OF LIGHT RAIN HEADED
INTO THIS EVENING.
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE DYNAMIC LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. NAM AND RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER OF
EAST LLVL FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. PWS WILL INCREASE TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES WITH THE WARM CLOUD LAYER DEEPENING TO AROUND 13
KFT. IN ADDITION...GFS40S SHOWS A FIELD OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA... ON THE NE SIDE OF A CLOSED MID LEVEL
LOW.
I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ADJUST POP TIMING AND INCREASE QPF
ACROSS THE UPSLOPE AREAS.
AT 230 PM EDT THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SE AND AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW OVER OFF THE GA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO SEND MOISTURE
INLAND TOWARD THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...INCREASING EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW...INCREASING EASTERLY ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OVER A SURFACE
RIDGE...AND MOISTURE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ALONG THE EAST FACING BLUE RIDGE. ALTHOUGH
MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY IN DROUGHT...LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD
OCCUR IN SMALLER STREAM BASIN AND HILLY TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL BE NOT ISSUED OUR BLUE RIDGE AREA...AS IT APPEARS PRECIPITANT
WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD NE FROM THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY TO THE
NC MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN BELOW NORMAL IN COOL NE SURFACE
FLOW...ESPECIALLY MAXIMUMS UNDER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW
WIDESPREAD RAIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THEY HAVE BACKED
OFF ON AMOUNT OF QPF. MANY OF THE TRADITIONAL PARAMETERS NEEDED FOR
FLOODING TYPE RAINFALL ARE NOT THERE. OPS MDLS SHOW PW VALUES ARE UP
TO 190 PERCENT OF NORMAL...BUT THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 1 TO MAYBE
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. WHILE THERE IS SOME UPPER
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET MAX...1 STD DEVIATION ABOVE
NORMAL...THIS DISSIPATES ON SAT AS THE JET MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
THE MAIN FORCING WILL COME FROM STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING H85 ELY FLOW UP TO 4 STD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A NORTHWARD
SHIFT IN THE BEST H85 FLOW THRU THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THE SREF DOES
KEEP IT OVER OUR PORTION OF THE BLUE RIDGE LONGER THAN THE GEFS.
GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WPC HAS DROPPED THE QPF FCST ACROSS THE AREA.
HAVE FOLLOWED THESE TRENDS AS WELL. THAT SAID...THIS STILL PUTS 1 TO
3 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS AND NEAR THE NRN BLUE RIDGE...SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. CANNOT RULE OUT FLOODING...
BUT IT APPEARS TO NOT BE WIDESPREAD AND WARRANT A WATCH AT THIS
TIME. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE THRU THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWER POP ACROSS THE SWRN CWFA.
WITH A WEDGE PATTERN IN PLACE AND CONTINUED RAINFALL...EXPECT BREEZY
AND COOL CONDITIONS EACH DAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON SAT THEN RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES SUN. LOWS WILL BE ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230PM THURSDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH THE WEEKEND RAINFALL EVENT ON THE WANE AND DRIER CONDITIONS
BUILDING IN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A CUT-OFF 500MB LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND AN
ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WESTERN SARGASSO SEA...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
AND A LACK OF NOTABLE SHORTWAVES IN THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE
AREA MOSTLY DRY THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER...THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. AND CANADA AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF ARE NOT
EXCITED ABOUT NOTABLE RAINFALL AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE BULLISH ON A MODEST BUT
WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF AND
APPROACHING THE LOUISIANA COAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
WEAKENS THE LOW TO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. BOTH
MODELS DO NOT BRING THE FEATURE INLAND...HOWEVER THE GFS KEEPS THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IN A MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT WITH A TROPICAL
CONNECTION TO THE CARIBBEAN AND EJECTS ROUNDS OR BANDS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIP NORTH FROM THE GULF LOW ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND INTO OUR
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING AND LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF PERSISTS WITH WEAK NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST HEADING INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE FORECAST MAINTAINS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD GIVEN THE
DECENT MOISTURE THAT REMAINS IN PLACE FOLLOWING THE EVENT ENDING ON
SUNDAY...THE ANTICIPATED FRONTAL PASSAGE...AND THE PERSISTENCE OF
BOTH MODELS OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS OF SUGGESTING SOME ACTIVITY IN
THE GULF MOVING TOWARDS THE COAST. NEVERTHELESS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE THAT A STRONG 1028MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. ON THE CONFLUENT SIDE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND WEDGES DOWN ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S....
SIGNIFICANTLY DRYING US OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD ON FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...WITH CEILINGS FALLING
TO TO IFR BY DAYBREAK...AND POSSIBLE REMAINING THERE AS INCREASING
RAINFALL MOISTENS THE LOWERS LAYER OF THE ATMOSPHERE. VSBY MAY LOWER
TO IFR BY DAWN IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. WINDS WILL FAVOR THE NE...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO STAY UP OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE UP
AGAINST THE BLUE RIDGE...FAVORING DECREASING CEILINGS. BY DAWN IFR
CIGS ARE EXPECTED...POSSIBLY LOWER AT KAVL. DAYBREAK IFR VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. IFR CIGS CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST THROUGH
THE MORNING AS INCREASING RAIN KEEPS THE LOWEST LAYERS MOIST. WINDS
WILL FAVOR THE NE...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE WINDS WILL VEER FROM NW AND
CHANNEL DOWNVALLEY FORM THE SE. GUSTS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...DEEP MOISTURE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY PERIODICALLY THRU SATURDAY. IN
ADDITION...RAINFALL WILL BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 85% HIGH 83% HIGH 92%
KGSP HIGH 91% MED 73% HIGH 83% MED 75%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 89% HIGH 81% HIGH 95%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 92% MED 73% HIGH 92%
KGMU HIGH 91% HIGH 91% MED 77% MED 75%
KAND MED 76% LOW 37% MED 69% MED 67%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMP
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JMP
AVIATION...JAT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.UPDATE...
A compact shortwave trough continues to dive southeast across the
High Plains. Per the water vapor loop, this wave is currently
located along the TX/NM border south of Clovis. Diurnal showers
and thunderstorms will be possible downstream and beneath this
feature this afternoon. Convection has already developed over much
of the south Plains and is expected to affect the western portions
of the Big Country and Concho Valley. Instability is somewhat
limited over west central TX, but it should be adequate to support
weak, disorganized updrafts. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
were added to the forecast, generally along/west of a line from
Haskell, to San Angelo, to Ozona. Otherwise, changes to the
inherited forecast were minimal.
&&
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
Light southerly winds will veer to the east across the area this
afternoon, generally remaining under 10 kts. After sunset, winds
will go light and variable, remaining so through 18z Friday.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon, mainly west of a KABI-KSJT line. Given the very limited
coverage across west central TX, no mention will be carried in the
current TAF package. Expect VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 607 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
VFR next 24 hours. South winds less than 10 KTS will become
east this afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Upper low along the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico state line is
expected move slowly south today and tonight. West Central Texas,
however, will be under the influence of an upper level ridge,
keeping the region for the most part, dry.
The HRRR and Texas Tech WRF short range models do develop
isolated showers in extreme western sections of West Central
Texas....west of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line today.
With dry air at the surface, however, showers that develop should
mainly be virga, so will leave out mention of rain. With more
mid/upper level clouds, highs today should be in the lower 90s. It
will be cooler tonight with lows in the lower and mid 60s, due to
light winds and dry air.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Currently, an upper level low is slowly moving south through
eastern New Mexico, causing the ridge over our area to weaken.
Another more pronounced low is located over northeastern Nebraska.
Both of these features are expected to move south through our
area between now and Saturday. The first, weaker wave will move
through tomorrow, with the second one in Nebraska, moving through
Saturday. Models don`t completely agree on exact path, strength,
or timing of the feature Saturday. However, with the ridge
weakened, and the shortwave moving through, it was enough to
introduce low end slight chance PoPs across our western counties
on Saturday. While we will have a chance for precipitation, we are
not expecting widespread coverage or heavy rainfall.
Along with the rain chances on Saturday, we will see cooler
temperatures both Friday and Saturday under the weakened ridge.
An upper level low will remain nearly stationary over southern
Texas from Saturday night into early next week, but isn`t expected
to result in any precipitation in our area. By Monday, a gradual
warm-up is expected to begin as the ridge re-establishes itself
over the area through the second half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 66 88 65 / 10 5 10 10
San Angelo 92 64 89 63 / 10 5 10 10
Junction 91 64 90 61 / 5 5 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Johnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
607 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.AVIATION...
/|12Z TAFS/
VFR next 24 hours. South winds less than 10 KTS will become
east this afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Upper low along the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico state line is
expected move slowly south today and tonight. West Central Texas,
however, will be under the influence of an upper level ridge,
keeping the region for the most part, dry.
The HRRR and Texas Tech WRF short range models do develop
isolated showers in extreme western sections of West Central
Texas....west of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line today.
With dry air at the surface, however, showers that develop should
mainly be virga, so will leave out mention of rain. With more
mid/upper level clouds, highs today should be in the lower 90s. It
will be cooler tonight with lows in the lower and mid 60s, due to
light winds and dry air.
LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Currently, an upper level low is slowly moving south through
eastern New Mexico, causing the ridge over our area to weaken.
Another more pronounced low is located over northeastern Nebraska.
Both of these features are expected to move south through our area
between now and Saturday. The first, weaker wave will move through
tomorrow, with the second one in Nebraska, moving through
Saturday. Models don`t completely agree on exact path, strength,
or timing of the feature Saturday. However, with the ridge
weakened, and the shortwave moving through, it was enough to
introduce low end slight chance PoPs across our western counties
on Saturday. While we will have a chance for precipitation, we are
not expecting widespread coverage or heavy rainfall.
Along with the rain chances on Saturday, we will see cooler
temperatures both Friday and Saturday under the weakened ridge.
An upper level low will remain nearly stationary over southern
Texas from Saturday night into early next week, but isn`t expected
to result in any precipitation in our area. By Monday, a gradual
warm-up is expected to begin as the ridge re-establishes itself
over the area through the second half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 66 88 65 / 5 5 10 10
San Angelo 92 64 89 63 / 5 5 10 10
Junction 91 64 90 61 / 0 5 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
404 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
Upper low along the Texas Panhandle and New Mexico state line is
expected move slowly south today and tonight. West Central Texas,
however, will be under the influence of an upper level ridge,
keeping the region for the most part, dry.
The HRRR and Texas Tech WRF short range models do develop
isolated showers in extreme western sections of West Central
Texas....west of a Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora line today.
With dry air at the surface, however, showers that develop should
mainly be virga, so will leave out mention of rain. With more
mid/upper level clouds, highs today should be in the lower 90s. It
will be cooler tonight with lows in the lower and mid 60s, due to
light winds and dry air.
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Currently, an upper level low is slowly moving south through
eastern New Mexico, causing the ridge over our area to weaken.
Another more pronounced low is located over northeastern Nebraska.
Both of these features are expected to move south through our area
between now and Saturday. The first, weaker wave will move through
tomorrow, with the second one in Nebraska, moving through
Saturday. Models don`t completely agree on exact path, strength,
or timing of the feature Saturday. However, with the ridge
weakened, and the shortwave moving through, it was enough to
introduce low end slight chance PoPs across our western counties
on Saturday. While we will have a chance for precipitation, we are
not expecting widespread coverage or heavy rainfall.
Along with the rain chances on Saturday, we will see cooler
temperatures both Friday and Saturday under the weakened ridge.
An upper level low will remain nearly stationary over southern
Texas from Saturday night into early next week, but isn`t expected
to result in any precipitation in our area. By Monday, a gradual
warm-up is expected to begin as the ridge re-establishes itself
over the area through the second half of next week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 91 66 88 65 / 5 5 10 10
San Angelo 92 64 89 63 / 5 5 10 10
Junction 91 64 90 61 / 0 5 10 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
04/20
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1123 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
The convection to the west of the CWA has continued to weaken,
although additional showers and thunderstorms continue farther
west toward the NM border. No precipitation is anticipated
tonight, but a good deal of mid/high clouds will stream across the
area through early Thursday. Light south and southeast winds will
continue tonight, shifting from the east and northeast at 6-8 kts
Thursday afternoon. A few thunderstorms are not out of the
question tomorrow afternoon, mainly west of a KSWW-KSJT line.
However, uncertainty and limited coverage will preclude mention of
this activity in the forecast.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/
UPDATE...
Updated the forecast to increase cloud cover across the northern
and western portions of the forecast area based on the latest
observations/trends. A line of showers and thunderstorms extended
from near Big Spring to Fort Stockton, and this line continues to
move east southeast at 20 mph. This area of precipitation will
start to outrun the moisture/instability axis to our west during
the next few hours, and it should gradually weaken as it
approaches our western counties. However, it may hold together
long enough to give areas west of an Ozona to Robert Lee to
Haskell line some light rainfall, where isolated showers were
added to the forecast through 1 AM. The latest HRRR supports this
scenario as well.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A line of showers and thunderstorms continues to march east across
the Permian Basin this evening, but should rapidly weaken as it
approaches the Concho Valley as it moves into a much more stable
environment. Scattered to broken mid/high clouds are expected
overnight and early Thursday, with a diurnal cu field of 6-7 kft
developing by midday. Expect light southeast winds overnight,
becoming southerly late tonight through 18z, shifting to the east
Thursday afternoon.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Thursday)
Dry and warm conditions will continue through Thursday, with
slightly above normal temperatures continuing. Showers and a few
thunderstorms have develop across the higher terrain of
southeastern New Mexico this afternoon, with showers also
extending northeast into the southern Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. This activity has developed in association with a weak
mid level trough over the southern Rockies and upslope flow across
the higher terrain. Some of this activity may clip extreme
northwest portions of the Big Country through early evening but
most of it will stay north and west of the area, so no POPs were
added at this time.
The latest 4km Texas Tech WRF develops scattered convection across
the area on Thursday, while the NAM, GFS remain dry. Cannot
discount the WRF entirely, as the ridge begins weakening and
aforementioned mid level trough sinks south across eastern New
Mexico and far west Texas. Any convection that does develop will
most likely remain west of the area and decided to keep the
forecast dry for now, which matches well with neighboring offices.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s, with highs Thursday near 90
degrees.
LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Still considering the chance of rain for Friday. GFS and the TTU
WRF have been indicating a small chance of showers and storms for
Friday across portions of West Central Texas, as a weak cold front
moves into the area. Instability is a little marginal and the best
lift may be early as a weak shortwave rotates through the area. At
this point, not sure there is enough there to warrant a mention
quite yet, but if these trends continue, may need to insert PoPs
at some point later this week.
Upper level ridge remains off to the west for much of the extended
time frame, while an upper level low develops off to the east.
This places West Central Texas largely in northerly flow aloft for
much of next week. Should have a series of weak cold fronts move
across the area. No cold air coming, but perhaps something closer
to normal than we have been the last few weeks.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 66 91 68 88 / 10 0 5 10
San Angelo 64 91 66 90 / 10 0 5 10
Junction 63 90 65 90 / 5 0 5 10
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Johnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1230 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST KARX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM AND 24.05Z RAP SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. 24.00Z MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z
TODAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. PATCHY FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO
ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO DEVELOP AND FOG FORMATION. THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM
SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
PREFERRED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG FORMATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE RIDGE AND
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER
06Z SATURDAY...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FROM 08-14Z SATURDAY.
WITH SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATING 925MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 17 TO PLUS 19
DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
24.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO FORECAST AREA
OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE 24.00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST PLUS 3 TO PLUS 10
DEGREES CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
CUT OFF LOW OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA AND ASSOCIATED LARGE AREA OF VFR
CEILINGS ABOUT ONLY ISSUE TO CONCERN WITH. AIRMASS REMAINS FAIRLY
DRY IN LOWER LEVELS SO LOTS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND FORECAST
AREA.
NOTICED UPPER LOW IS STARTING TO FILL A LITTLE AND MODEL GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSOCIATED
LIFT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS WELL SO ANY PRECIPITATION THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY WEST AND LOWER IN TIME. STILL HAVE A LOT OF
CLOUDS AROUND THOUGH SO HAVE DELAYED CLEARING IDEA NEARLY 10-12
HOURS WHICH HAS IMPLICATIONS ON ANY FOG POSSIBILITIES FRIDAY
MORNING. WHILE WE COULD SEE SOME THINNING IN CLOUDS MAINLY ON
WISCONSIN SIDE...NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP FOG AT KLSE WITH
EXPECTED CLOUDS AROUND.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...SHEA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
608 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST KARX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM AND 24.05Z RAP SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. 24.00Z MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z
TODAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. PATCHY FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO
ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO DEVELOP AND FOG FORMATION. THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM
SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
PREFERRED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG FORMATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE RIDGE AND
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER
06Z SATURDAY...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FROM 08-14Z SATURDAY.
WITH SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATING 925MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 17 TO PLUS 19
DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
24.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO FORECAST AREA
OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE 24.00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST PLUS 3 TO PLUS 10
DEGREES CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE SHOWERS OVER NORTH CENTRAL IOWA ARE ALSO MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH AND WITH THE HI-RES MESO MODELS SUGGESTING THIS ACTIVITY
WILL NOT GET INTO KRST TODAY...WILL INDICATE A DRY FORECAST.
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VFR AND THE 24.06Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO
NOT SUGGEST THIS WILL CHANGE TODAY. DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT TO START DISSIPATING THE CLOUDS. THE CONCERN
BECOMES IF THESE CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP SOON ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME
FOG TO FORM. WITH THE DRIER AIR COMING IN FROM THE EAST...WILL
SHOW THE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT AT KLSE BEFORE KRST. IF THIS
HAPPENS...THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH A PRETTY DEEP LAYER WITH
SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME
VALLEY FOG. WILL ADD A BCFG FOR THIS...BUT IF THE CLOUDS HOLD ON
LONGER...AS THE 24.00Z GFS WOULD SUGGEST...THEN THIS WOULD NOT BE
NEEDED.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING UPPER LEVEL
LOW/TROUGH SPINNING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH SEVERAL PIECES OF
ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATEST KARX RADAR SHOWS LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN.
THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM AND 24.05Z RAP SUGGEST WEAK IMPULSES ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY. 24.00Z MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO LIFT NORTHWARD ALONG WITH THE
IMPULSE OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA/WESTERN WISCONSIN TODAY. IN
ADDITION...SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z
TODAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN/NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND TRACK NORTHWARD OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY.
TONIGHT...WITH SURFACE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AND
LIGHT WINDS NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALOFT. PATCHY FOG IS A
POSSIBILITY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN. BIG
QUESTION WILL BE IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA IN TIME TO
ALLOW FOR INVERSION TO DEVELOP AND FOG FORMATION. THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM
SHOW SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...PER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FIELDS.
FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS AND THE
PREFERRED AREAS OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS FOG FORMATION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. SURFACE RIDGE AND
RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS NEAR
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND STRONG INVERSION DEVELOPS AFTER
06Z SATURDAY...FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE IN RIVER VALLEYS AND IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL WISCONSIN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG FROM 08-14Z SATURDAY.
WITH SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE AREA...DRY WEATHER
CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH THE 24.00Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF
INDICATING 925MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM PLUS 17 TO PLUS 19
DEGREES CELSIUS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
24.00Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES ON TIMING/STRENGTH
OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MONDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON TIMING OF SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AS WARM AIR ADVECTS INTO FORECAST AREA
OUT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/SURFACE FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO FILTER IN BEHIND SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS THE 24.00Z GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST PLUS 3 TO PLUS 10
DEGREES CELSIUS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT KRST OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH. OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE SEEN AT THE TAF SITES. PLAN ON BASES OF AROUND 5 KFT AT
KRST OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO 12 KFT BY MID MORNING THURSDAY. AT
KLSE...CLOUD BASES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 10KFT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY
EVENING. LOOK FOR THE CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY SCATTER THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VALLEY FOG AT KLSE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND WHETHER DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE EAST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...WETENKAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
433 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH SATURDAY
COMPLEMENTS OF AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE OVER THE CWA THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN SOME LATER SATURDAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUT THATS ABOUT THE
ONLY WEATHER FEATURE OF NOTE OVERALL. SOME MAINLY VALLEY FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE NEB
PANHANDLE AS WEAK EASTERLY FLOW MAY ADVECT IN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
BOTH DAYS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO DESERT SOUTHWEST SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKS EAST FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS THROUGH MONDAY.
THE GFS SHOWS A VORT LOBE EXTENDING FROM IA WESTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHERN WY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PULLING A PACIFIC
FRONT ACROSS THE CWA. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT WITH
A WEAKER SHORTWAVE FURTHER NORTH. BOTH MODELS PRODUCE WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN THE VICINITY OF THE MOUNTAINS
AND NORTHEAST CWA. IT WILL BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE...WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE QUITE
WARM SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S...COOL 5 TO
10 DEGREES TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY SLIGHT WARMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 431 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN TONIGHT FOR SEVERAL
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS. HRRR GUIDANCE USED HEAVILY IN THE 00Z
TAFS AS IT DID EXTREMELY WELL LAST NIGHT. LOWERING CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT KAIA AROUND 04Z...THEN KCDR AND KSNY RIGHT
AROUND 06Z. EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2015
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SOME ELEVATED CONCERNS IN THE AFTERNOONS OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
WHERE WINDS SHOULD COME UP A BIT BUT NOT LOOKING TOO STRONG AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
529 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
09Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
CONTAINED WELL ALONG OR TO THE NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER AS IT
MOVES UP AND OVER A STRONG MID/UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST
FROM THIS RIDGE WE FIND AN UNPROGRESSIVE...BROAD...BUT DEEP UPPER
TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL
UPPER LOWS CAN BE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WITHIN THE LARGER
SCALE TROUGH. ONE IS LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE TN/OH
VALLEYS...WHILE ANOTHER IS SPINNING OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. OUR FORECAST AREA RESIDES WITHIN THE DEEP SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS UPPER LOW/TROUGH. WV
IMAGERY IS SHOWS ABUNDANT DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH
WITH THIS FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF.
AT THE SURFACE...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA RESIDES WITHIN A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THE SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE RESULTING FLOW IS LIGHT FROM THE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST...AND OTHER THAN WEAK SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS NEAR
THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON...WILL BE THE PREVAILING FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW A FEW ISOLATED
CONVECTIVE CELLS WELL OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. MAY SEE A BIT OF A
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY TOWARD DAWN AS THE NOCTURNAL LAND BREEZE
MAXIMIZES...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
A GENERALLY BENIGN FORECAST FOR THE MORNING HOURS...OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THE FIRST
HOUR OR TWO OF DAYLIGHT. THINGS SEEM TO BE ALIGNING FOR A RATHER
ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER. THERE ARE SEVERAL FAVORABLE THINGS IN PLACE. FIRST
IS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME. THE 1000-700MB MEAN FLOW IS LIGHT
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS FLOW IS GENERALLY OUR MOST ACTIVE ALONG
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FL PENINSULA DURING THE WARM SEASON SEA-
BREEZE THUNDERSTORM MONTHS DUE TO ITS CONVERGENT FOCUS WITH THE
WEST COAST SEA-BREEZE. IN ADDITION TO THIS FAVORABLE WIND
PATTERN...THERE IS ABUNDANT COLUMN MOISTURE IN PLACE. WHILE THE
DEEP MOISTURE TENDS TO LOWER THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS...IT
INCREASES THE OVERALL COVERAGE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
EXPECT TO SEE THE FIRST STORMS DEVELOP AROUND MIDDAY NEAR THE
COAST WITH THE INITIAL SEA-BREEZE...THEN EXPECT NUMEROUS
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO EXPAND INLAND AS NEW AND OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES TAKE OVER THE STORM EVOLUTION. RAIN CHANCES OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA ARE ABOVE CLIMO FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
STORMS MAY BRIEFLY MAXIMIZE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS...IT IS LIKELY
THAT WE WILL SEE A SECOND PUSH OF ACTIVITY BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THIS EVENING...AS THE SEA-BREEZE SHUTS DOWN AND THE PREVAILING
FLOW BEGINS TO SHIFT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BACK TO THE WEST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY END LATE IN THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...CAN NOT RULE OUT
AN ACTIVE STORMS CLUSTER HOLDING TOGETHER INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS OF SUNDAY.
OVERALL...THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL CERTAINLY
HAVE SHIFTED OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WILL
BE WATCHING A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGE INTO THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL GULF AND BEGIN MOVING NORTH. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF THIS LOW AS ITS
IMPACT PERTAIN TO OUR FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE MORE
LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT A WEAK/SEMI-DISORGANIZED LOW WILL SHIFT
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IN
CASE SOMETHING MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPS.
FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY...THIS LOW AND ANY POTENTIAL
IMPACTS WILL STILL BE TOO FAR AWAY FOR DIRECT EFFECTS. WHAT WILL
BE OCCURRING THOUGH IS A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.
THIS STRONGER SYNOPTIC FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT A STRONG
SEA-BREEZE OR PIN THIS BOUNDARY AT THE COAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
THIS BEING SAID...AND COMBINED WITH CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE...WOULD ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON/EVENING OF
DIURNAL STORMS.
EVEN WITHOUT OFFICIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE GULF LOW...A
TRACK CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA WOULD STILL POSE PROBLEMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN BANDS BY MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THIS POTENTIAL...WHILE OTHERS KEEP THE HEAVIER RAIN
OFFSHORE. WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SHOULD GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW ONCE THE FEATURE EMERGES
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A STRONG U/L CUT- OFF LOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL INDUCE A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE GULF HOWEVER LOCATION OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW
REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN. U/L DIFFLUENCE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
U/L TROUGH MAY CREATE A FAVORABLE AREA OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
FOR LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO...AND ADVECTING LOCALLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE U/L
LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
WITH THE L/W TROUGH AXIS SLOWLY MOVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GFS
AND ECMWF IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...WHICH WOULD LEAD
TO A RATHER WET EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER LEANING MORE TOWARD A SREF SOLUTION ATTM WHICH HAS A MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. WOULD EXPECT THE STRONG U/L CUT-OFF OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF TO INDUCE DOWNSTREAM U/L RIDGING OVER
FLORIDA...WHICH IS DEPICTED BEST BY THE SREF. THIS WOULD INITIALLY
DECREASE POPS OVER THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY HOLDING THE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST POSSIBLY REACHING THE OFFSHORE
WATERS. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD INCREASE MID WEEK
AS THE SYSTEM OPENS UP AND LIFTS OUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE L/W TROUGH WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
DUE TO THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE GULF...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HOWEVER WILL GO BELOW GFS/ECMWF GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
AREAS OF FOG AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
MORNING...MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. WILL EXPECT SOME OF
THESE CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO BUILD SOUTH IN THE FEW HOURS
SURROUNDING DAWN...AND BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KTPA/KLAL/KSRQ/KPIE BETWEEN 10-13Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY
MID MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCT-NMRS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
BEGINNING AROUND MIDDAY...PERSISTING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. ALL TERMINALS RUN A RISK OF A PASSING STORM AFTER 17Z.
&&
.MARINE...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BRIEFLY SWITCH ONSHORE
WITH SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS.
ONSHORE WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. THE LOW IN THE SOUTHERN GULF IS FORECAST TO STAY
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER...WINDS AND SEAS MAY REACH CAUTIONARY
LEVELS AT TIMES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF
BY THE EARLY PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL RESIDE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTH AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PROVIDE A MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THE GULF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR BANDS OF HEAVIER
RAINFALL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY CLOSE TO THE COAST.
EITHER WAY... MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE VERY HIGH...WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS THROUGH THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOG POTENTIAL...SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVER INLAND LOCATIONS SUNDAY MORNING...HOWEVER NO SIGNIFICANT
FOG OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 89 75 89 76 / 60 50 60 50
FMY 90 75 91 76 / 40 40 60 50
GIF 90 74 90 75 / 50 40 50 40
SRQ 87 75 88 76 / 40 40 50 50
BKV 89 73 90 73 / 60 50 60 40
SPG 88 77 89 78 / 50 40 50 50
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL ONCE AGAIN GIVE WAY TO EASTERLY WIND IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL. HAVE VCTS IN ALL
TAFS TO REFLECT THIS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF IFR UNDER ANY HEAVY SHOWERS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
UPDATE...
MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED THIS EVENING. STILL
THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, CONSIDERING THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WAS UNTOUCHED THIS
AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW LATE TONIGHT AND NEAR DAWN CAN ONCE AGAIN
PRODUCE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE BEACHES, WHICH MAY LEAD WATER TO
ISSUES ALONG MIAMI BEACH AGAIN, CONSIDERING HIGH TIDE IS AROUND
7AM.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...
COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, NOW FOR
WEST AND EAST COASTS. ANY RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND, EVEN MORE SO
AROUND HIGH TIDE, WILL EXACERBATE THE SITUATION.
LESS HIGH CLOUDS TODAY, HAS ALLOWED FOR BETTER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS ALREADY
PROGRESSED INLAND, SUCH THAT MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE OVER THE
INTERIOR OR FAR WESTERN SUBURBS. WITH WEAK WIND PROFILE STILL IN
PLACE, AND SHOWERS CURRENTLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, HRRR SHOWS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STORMS MOVING BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AND
BEACHES INTO EARLY EVENING. THIS PROCESS MAY HAPPEN A LITTLE
EARLIER THOUGH THROUGH PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT IN THE MEAN WIND/STORM MOTION THERE. HEAVY RAINFALL
AGAIN APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT CONSIDERING MOVEMENT.
MITIGATING FACTOR FOR ANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE A NOTABLE
MID LEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S RAOB. MODEL SOUNDING
FORECASTED AFTERNOON CAPE ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE.
TONIGHT-SATURDAY...AS PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL FL
CONTINUES TO WASH OUT, EASTERLY COMPONENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
DEEPER, ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN RATHER LIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. WITH SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED SATURDAY,
MOST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE INTERIOR AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. PERHAPS A SMALLER CHC OF ACTIVITY BLEEDING BACK
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THAN TODAY. INSTABILITY IS NOTHING TO GET
EXCITED ABOUT WITH SIMILAR H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS TO TODAY.
IF MID LEVEL INVERSION FROM THIS MORNING`S SOUNDING REMAINS, THAT
COULD RESTRICT ACTIVITY AGAIN. PWATS THOUGH REMAIN ABOVE 2" AND
DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...
EASTERLY FLOW TRIES TO BECOME A LITTLE DEEPER AND STRONGER, ALTHOUGH
LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IS HAVING
PROBLEMS EXERTING INFLUENCE, WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE/SURFACE TROUGH
STUCK ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY. H5 TEMP PERHAPS WARMS ABOVE
-6C. FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE INTERIOR,
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING OVER THE WEST COAST ALSO.
OPERATIONAL GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN OR CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS, BUT CONTINUES WEAKER. NHC CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT IN
THEIR 5 DAY OUTLOOK AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSSIBLY CONTINUES
ON A NORTHERLY TRACK THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AFTER IT CROSSES
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AS THIS OCCURS, WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE
COLUMN, BECOMING MORE SSE AT THE SURFACE AND SSW ALOFT. THUS,
STORMS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH THE
CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION. HOWEVER, WITH AN H5 RIDGE STRETCHING
FURTHER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAN THIS WEEKEND, H5 TEMPS
CONTINUE TO WARM WITH RATHER UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
MODEL/BLENDED POPS MAY BE DRIVEN BY THE DEEP MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVOLVING AT ALL LEVELS, THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...
WE WILL STILL NEED TO WATCH MOVEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE AND HOW FAR
EAST DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADS TOWARDS OUR
GULF COAST REGION, ALTHOUGH CURRENT GUIDANCE POSSIBLY HAS THE LOW
STAYING WELL NORTH AND WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLOSED MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER TX/LA EARLY NEXT WEEK, OPENS UP
AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK. ECMWF/GFS DIFFER ON THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF
THIS TROUGH. THE GFS ACTUALLY HAS A GOOD CHUNK OF MID LEVEL DRY
AIR ARRIVING INTO WEDNESDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER RIDGING AND
SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS MAY MITIGATE A WIND FIELD
WHICH MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS FOCUSED THROUGH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST PER THE DEEPER ECMWF LATE NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 89 77 / 40 20 40 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 78 89 79 / 30 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 90 78 / 50 20 40 20
NAPLES 90 76 90 76 / 40 20 50 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
236 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE REGION HAS
DROPPED DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS...
PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS ON AREAS FROM GOODLAND WESTWARD. AREAS
TO THE EAST ARE SEEING SOME REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY BUT WILL BE
MONITORED TO SEE IF DOWNTREND PUSHES TOWARDS ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A SMALL SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. ONCE
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
MODEL AGREEMENT HAS BECOME BETTER FOR THE CURRENT FORECAST ISSUANCE
WITH ALIGNING WITH THE PREVIOUS ECMWF FORECAST. AS A RESULT...STILL
LEANING ON THE ECMWF OUTPUT TO KEEP THE TRI STATE AREA DRY THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE UPPER 70S ON TUESDAY TO
THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY UNDER THE RIDGE.
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE A BIT ON FRIDAY AND BEYOND. BECAUSE OF THE
CONSISTENCY WITH THE ECMWF...DECIDED TO ADJUST PRECIPITATION
FORECAST TOWARDS THE DRY SIDE FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A PROMINENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM
THE WEST...SO EXPECTING PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. WITH ECMWF CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND 0-
6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES APPROACHING 50 KTS...A BOUT OF SEVERE WEATHER
COULD DEVELOP. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR FRIDAY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE EXITING SYSTEM AND
WILL BRING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE TO IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT BOTH SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
NORMAL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR SO LONGER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
125 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI STATE REGION HAS
DROPPED DOWN TO LESS THAN A MILE OVER PAST COUPLE HOURS...
PROMPTING ISSUANCE OF A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THROUGH ABOUT 15Z
SATURDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS ON AREAS FROM GOODLAND WESTWARD. AREAS
TO THE EAST ARE SEEING SOME REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY BUT WILL BE
MONITORED TO SEE IF DOWNTREND PUSHES TOWARDS ADVISORY CRITERIA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH RULING OUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT
REINFORCING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXCELLENT ON
FRIDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS...SO A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE TO IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT BOTH SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
NORMAL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR SO LONGER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KSZ001-013-027.
CO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1127 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS FORECAST MOVE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT REACHING WEST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY MORNING. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THE LOW CONTINUES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WITH A SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXIS JUST WEST OF THE AREA.
MAIN WEATHER CONCERNS TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SATURDAY WILL BE
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR REGARDING PLACEMENT AND
LOWEST VISIBILITIES OF FOG WHICH FAVOR THE WESTERN 2/3 OF THE AREA.
CURRENTLY HAVE VISIBILITIES DOWN TO 1/2 MILE IN THIS AREA. IF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE IS RIGHT DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
WILL DEVELOP. WILL LET EVENING SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK AT 18Z AND 00Z
MODEL DATA IN HOPES OF FINE TUNING AREAS UNDER THE GUN FOR DENSE FOG
AND POSSIBLY ISSUE AN ADVISORY.
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON FRIDAY BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG WILL ALSO
PERSIST IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING AND
POSSIBLY AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING WITH PLENTIFUL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE. THERE WILL BE A WEAK COLD FRONT ATTEMPTING TO SLIP
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. HOWEVER...UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE DISPLACED FAR
TO THE NORTH RULING OUT MOST IF NOT ALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES BUT
REINFORCING MOIST LOW LEVELS WITH A POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
THROUGH TUESDAY. FOR THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM...INSTABILITY CURRENTLY
LOOKS RATHER MEAGER BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE EXCELLENT ON
FRIDAY...ON THE ORDER OF 50KTS...SO A SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT JUST YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT FRI SEP 25 2015
VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. THIS SET OF TAFS
WILL BE MORE STRAIGHT FORWARD DUE TO IFR CONDITIONS ALREADY
OCCURRING AT BOTH SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO CHANGE VERY LITTLE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z. DUE TO THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE...EXPECT
THE FOG/STRATUS TO BURN OFF A BIT MORE SLOWLY THAN
NORMAL...SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY OR POSSIBLY AN HOUR OR SO LONGER.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
159 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
A FEW SHOWERS HANGING ON ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF KENTUCKY. REST OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY AS DOWNSLOPING
FLOW HAS TAKEN OVER ONCE AGAIN. THE SHOWERS IN THE NORTH SHOULD
DISSIPATE AS THEY MOVE NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN THE DRY
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK. A FEW SHOWERS MAY
CREEP INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...WHERE THE EFFECTS OF THE
DOWNSLOPING MAY BE A BIT WEAKER. NOT SURE HOW MUCH ACTIVITY WILL
EXIST THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED.
THUS...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. WILL LIKELY KEEP AN ISOLATED POP IN THE FORECAST
TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAKING IT OVER THE PEAKS OF
THE APPALACHIANS. UPDATE HAS BEEN SAVED AND SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHWARD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BACK DOWN
ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF
FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER MUCH QUIETER THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME WEAK FORCING MAY SPREAD BACK
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER TOWARDS 12Z...SO WILL BRING BACK
SOME BETTER POPS AROUND THIS TIME...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT HAS BEEN CREATED AND SENT OUT ALREADY WITH THE
UPDATES MENTIONED ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WEATHER OFFICE HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...MAKING THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TOO
HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO REALITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. BY 2 OR 3Z IT
APPEARS THAT...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR MODEL...THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DUE MAINLY TO A LACK OF RENEWED
FORCING ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE WHAT WE EXPECT TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE POPS...QPF...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY...REFLECTING THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A
NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST DOWNSLOPING FLOW OFF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW CIGS FROM AFFECTING MUCH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE FLOW WILL SLOWLY TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AND TONIGHT...BEFORE TURNING SOUTH
ON SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS FLOW...WE MAY SEE CONDITIONS STAY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT WHERE A FEW SHOWERS CAN GET GOING.
BEST CHANCES FOR THESE SHOWERS MAY BE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY...OR FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. OVERALL...IMPACTS TO AVIATION
SHOULD NOT BE THAT GREAT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1214 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1214 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
BAND OF RAIN CONTINUES TO EXIT NORTHWARD WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
SPREADING BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL GO AHEAD AND BACK DOWN
ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LACK OF
FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP THE WEATHER MUCH QUIETER THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT. SOME WEAK FORCING MAY SPREAD BACK
TOWARDS THE TENNESSEE BORDER TOWARDS 12Z...SO WILL BRING BACK
SOME BETTER POPS AROUND THIS TIME...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE
BULK OF PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN
PARKWAY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHWEST
AND EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT...AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY...AS ADDITIONAL WAVES OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. ONLY VERY LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS ARE
EXPECTED FROM THE ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT. AN UPDATED ZONE FORECAST
TEXT PRODUCT HAS BEEN CREATED AND SENT OUT ALREADY WITH THE
UPDATES MENTIONED ABOVE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MADE A NUMBER OF UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...RAIN SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WEATHER OFFICE HAVE TAPERED OFF QUITE A BIT OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...MAKING THE PREVIOUS PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES TOO
HIGH WHEN COMPARED TO REALITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...GENERAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY NORTHEASTWARD INTO WEST
CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY
OFF TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE EVENING WEARS ON. BY 2 OR 3Z IT
APPEARS THAT...BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST RUN
OF THE HRRR MODEL...THAT THE RAIN SHOWERS WILL BECOME SCATTERED
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...DUE MAINLY TO A LACK OF RENEWED
FORCING ALOFT COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST. REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC
DOES SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS EASTERN
TENNESSEE AND THE CAROLINAS. THESE SHOWERS ARE WHAT WE EXPECT TO
MOVE INTO OUR AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
THE POPS...QPF...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
THROUGH 11Z SATURDAY...REFLECTING THE CHANGES MENTIONED ABOVE. A
NEW SET OF ZONES WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE SPREADING NORTH INTO KENTUCKY
BENEATH A DEVELOPING UPPER LOW. THIS IS SUPPORTING WAVES OF LIGHT
TO MODERATE SHOWERS WORKING EAST TO WEST THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY.
SO FAR...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN HAS BEEN HELD UP OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA DUE TO INITIAL DRY AIR AND DOWNSLOPING ON EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS COMING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CAPPED THIS DAY WITH READINGS CURRENTLY IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S THROUGHOUT EAST KENTUCKY. THE INCREASING
SHOWERS HAVE HELPED TO SATURATE MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA WHILE MID AND LOW 50S ARE NOTED
TO THE NORTHWEST. WINDS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY FROM THE EAST
AT 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15 KTS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL
DEPICT A CLOSED LOW FORMING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AMID A
REGION OF HIGH HEIGHTS...INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL THEN DRIFT NORTH INTO KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WHILE
AMPLE AMOUNTS OF ENERGY SWIRLS AROUND ITS CENTER. THIS LOW WILL
COMMENCE FILLING FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...
LESSENING ITS IMPACT ON SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE JKL CWA. GIVEN
THE SIMILARITIES AMONG THE MODELS HAVE AGAIN FAVORED THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION ONES LIKE THE RAP13 AND HRRR FOR WEATHER SPECIFICS...
ALONG WITH THE NAM12 FROM LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
PUSHING ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE WILL STILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY DOWNSLOPING...BUT EVEN SO THERE WILL BE
PLACES THAT MAKE OUT A BIT BETTER WITH UP TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN
INCH POSSIBLE...LIKE PARTS OF HARLAN COUNTY. OTHERWISE...MOST
PLACES WILL FALL IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY SLACKEN THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS THE SFC LOW STARTS TO FALL APART AND THE UPPER
SUPPORT WANES. THERE WILL STILL BE A THREAT OF LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH...BUT QPF WILL
LIKELY BE ALMOST NEGLIGIBLE...RUNNING AT A TENTH OF AN INCH OR
LESS FOR MOST PLACES. GIVEN THE SATURATION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECT FAIRLY UNIFORM TEMPERATURES AND A NARROW DIURNAL RANGE
FOR THE BULK OF THE WEEKEND.
USED THE SHORTBLEND INITIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ONCE
AGAIN...INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH THE
SUPERBLEND TO FOLLOW THROUGH THE SUNDAY MORNING. DID MAKE SOME
POINT BASED ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGHS AND LOWS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MAV AND
DRIER MET MOS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT RETROGRADES EAST THIS WEEKEND WILL EVENTUALLY
BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. AFTER THIS WEAK HEIGHT
RISES OCCURS AHEAD OF MID WEEK TROUGHING. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD IN RELATION TO
HEIGHTS AND OVERALL PATTERN. THE ECMWF WANTS TO ESTABLISH A DEEPER
TROUGH...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MUCH FLATTER WITH THE PATTERN. THIS
OF COURSE WILL INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL COMPLICATIONS TO THE SURFACE.
HOWEVER WOULD SEEM LIKE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LACKING THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THEREFORE THE WEAKER WAVES WILL BE THE BEST SUPPORT.
RIGHT NOW WILL LEAN TOWARD THE BLEND JUST GIVEN THAT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN
LOOK TO BE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME WITH UPPER
SHORTWAVE AND ENERVATED FRONT WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...HOWEVER DEPENDING ON THE DEPTH OF THE
TROUGHING TOWARD LATE NEXT WEEK COULD BRING TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AS AN A WEAK TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT SPINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO TAPER OFF ACROSS AN AREA ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WAYNE COUNTY TO WEST CENTRAL PIKE COUNTY.
THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH OUT THE EVENING...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA BASED ON THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA. THE TAF SITES WILL
EXPERIENCE FLUCTUATING CONDITIONS VARYING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD EXPAND IN
COVERAGE A BIT TOWARDS DAWN...AS A SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY ROTATES
AROUND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT AND INTO THE EASTERN
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY EASTERN KENTUCKY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1239 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN SOCKED IN ACROSS MOST OF THE DULUTH CWA AS OF
MID EVENING. AFTER SIGNIFICANT EROSION ON THE EDGES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON..AS WELL AS FOG/CEILINGS LIFTING SUBSTANTIALLY..
NIGHTTIME IR SAT IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
STRATUS EXPANDING TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ONCE AGAIN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW PERSISTING..AND THE
INVERSION SLOWLY STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT..WE EXPECT THIS EXPANSION
TREND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT..WITH STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING BACK
ACROSS MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH CWA WHERE IT ALREADY
HAS NOT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS YET TO REFORM AS OF 9 PM ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE AND OVER AREAS AT THE SOUTHWEST TIP OF LK
SUPERIOR..VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN SLOWLY LOWERING ALONG THE I35
CORRIDOR FROM MOOSE LAKE TO DULUTH..AND CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
GRADUALLY LOWERING. AGAIN..WITH THE WEAK EAST FLOW/UPSLOPE IN
VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE..WE HAVE NO COMPELLING
REASON TO PART WITH THE DAYSHIFT-ISSUED DENSE FOG ADVISORY THAT
JUST WENT INTO EFFECT. WE STILL EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY..IF NOT
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG TO REFORM OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HOURS. SOME
DRIZZLE IS ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE IMMEDIATE UPSLOPE AREAS FROM
DULUTH TO TWO HARBORS AND SILVER BAY.
TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ON SATURDAY SHOULD FINALLY RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT FLOW FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO MIX OUT..EVENTUALLY.
WE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HANG ON INTO THE
AFTERNOON IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN
RIDGE..AS IT WILL BE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON BEFORE FLOW CAN REALLY
INCREASE AN BECOME SOUTHERLY IN THESE AREAS PER LATEST CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO A DRY DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT
PLENTY OF CLOUDS REMAINED OVER EXTREME NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THE FLOW HAS BEEN WEAK AS SEEN WITH
KDLH VWP ONLY SHOWING WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KT AT 925MB/850MB.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT THE RAP SUGGESTS
LOWER CLOUDS WILL EXPAND AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS THE INVERSION
STRENGTHENS. FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ADJACENT TO
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE. WE ISSUED A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NORTH SHORE DOWN INTO THE TWIN PORTS
REGION LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE
DENSE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT. LATER
SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY.
AS THE WEAK HIGH DEPARTS...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS A COLD
FRONT/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WE EXPECT
THE CLOUDS/FOG TO SCOUR OUT MOST AREAS SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS AND BETTER MIXING. THE NORTH SHORE WILL BE LAST TO SEE THE
CLOUDS/FOG LIFT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE
SIXTIES ALONG THE NORTH SHORE...BUT THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
SEE HIGHS FROM 70 TO 76.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM IS ON PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
LATEST GFS/GEM/ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND PCPN...AND GENERALLY FASTER THAN THEIR EARLIER
RUNS. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO SPEED UP THE TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS. STILL HAVE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT MIGHT BE ABLE TO CUT BACK ON THIS WITH SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS SINCE THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DRIER FORECAST FOR THIS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE SUNNY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND AS A COLD FRONT IN CANADA APPROACHES THE NW FORECAST
AREA. THE GFS BUFR AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...HAVING 25 TO 30 KNOTS OF WIND SPEED IN THE MIXING LAYER
IN BOTH MODELS. THEREFORE...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCREASE THE WIND
SPEEDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE
LIKELY...AND MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE THIS TO NEARLY 30 MPH WITH
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. IT WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD...AND
PROBABLY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE 70S.
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...GENERALLY FROM NW TO SE...DURING THIS TIME. THE FRONT
WILL BEGIN TO BRING A SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN TEMPERATURE...WHICH WILL
NOT BE FULLY REALIZED UNTIL TUESDAY. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ALONG
AND IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD THUNDER...BUT THE GFS AND SREF INDICATE LITTLE
IF NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE...SO FELT COMFORTABLE REMOVING THUNDER FROM
THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHLAND...RESULTING
IN SUNNY SKIES...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN JUST A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE. HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 50S. THIS LATEST
FORECAST HAS MIDDLE 50S OVER THE NORTH TO NEAR 60 OVER THE
SOUTH...BUT MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THIS SEVERAL DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS WITH THE PASSING
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE MODELS
ARE TRENDING COLDER...AND MIGHT NEED TO LOWER THE FORECAST MUCH MORE
THAN WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST. NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD
FACE THE THREAT OF FROST.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
NORTHLAND AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT WARMING TREND INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AT MOST
TAF SITES...THEN IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING. IFR/LIFR
FOG/STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS EVENING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES AT DLH WHERE THE MOIST
MARINE LAYER IS RESULTING IN VISIBILITY BELOW A QUARTER MILE.
IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST MID MORNING TOMORROW...MOST SITES
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 14-15Z. DLH MAY REMAIN IFR TO MVFR THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING...BUT HAVE CONFIDENCE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR BY
THE AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS SKIES CLEAR OUT WINDS WILL PICK UP DUE TO
AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SOUTH WINDS GUSTING TO 20-25 KTS
AT INL AND 15-20KTS ELSEWHERE IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT BY THE EVENING HOURS...WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR
CEILINGS AT DLH...AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN.
ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED AT INL AS A STRONG
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DUE TO A COLD FRONT ADVANCING
FROM THE NORTHWEST...WINDS UP TO AROUND 45KTS AT 2KFT AGL AFTER
03Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 56 74 56 69 / 0 0 20 20
INL 58 75 50 64 / 0 40 30 0
BRD 59 77 57 70 / 0 0 10 20
HYR 56 76 58 71 / 0 0 10 30
ASX 56 76 58 70 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
037.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJM/MILLER
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
408 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN. MODELS
HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN HOW LOW IT WILL GO. THEY ARE CONSISTENT
THAT THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE MORE WEST. HAVE
LOWER VISIBILITY AND CEILING FOR KEAR THAN FOR KGRI. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1133 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER SYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR DRENCHING RAINS THE
PAST FEW DAYS WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS AT 19Z. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY SATURDAY MORNING. CLEARING SKIES ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF AND
WEAKENS. LATEST RAP INDICATES LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR FOG SO HAVE
REMOVED MENTION FROM FORECAST.
GENERAL RIDGING THEN COVERS THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH FAIR
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MODELS SIMILAR IN MOVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION ON MONDAY
STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST IOWA INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY MONDAY
EVENING. LOOKS DRY FOR NOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON MONDAY WITH
MODELS SHOWING POST FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR MONDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. BEYOND THIS TIME THE FORECAST
BECOMES LESS CONFIDENT AS GFS AND EURO SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES
IN SOLUTIONS. EURO BUILDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA WHILE GFS MAINTAINS A MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. SMALL POPS COVER MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AFTER TUESDAY BASED ON MODEL BLENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR COULD AFFECT TAF
SITES AROUND 12Z...BUT SHOULD BE PATCHY AT BEST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
120 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE PUMPING INTO THE REGION...
BETWEEN STRONG CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST... WILL PRODUCE WET AND
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. GRADUAL DRYING WILL TAKE
PLACE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I40 CORRIDOR. THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK NOW EXTENDING FROM
UPSTATE SC INTO SWRN NC WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN
THROUGH TONIGHT... AS THE MID LEVEL LOW TRACKS FROM NW GA
NORTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL TN WITH LOWERING DPVA OVER CENTRAL NC.
ASSOCIATED POTENT UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM SW TO
NE BUT REMAIN ENHANCED OVER THE FAR NE CWA. WITH A STEADY INFLUX OF
DEEP ATLANTIC MOISTURE INTO THIS AREA IN PARTICULAR (INCLUDING A
STOUT 925-850 MB JETLET FROM THE ESE) PERSISTING INTO THE NIGHT AND
PW VALUES REMAINING WELL ABOVE NORMAL... WILL RETAIN CATEGORICAL
POPS IN THE NE CWA... ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH/NE OF A LINE FROM INT
TO RDU TO GSB. WILL HAVE SLIGHTLY LOWER POPS TO THE SW OF HERE...
WITH CONTINUED 295K-305K MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND HIGH MOISTURE
INFLUX BUT WANING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE NSSL-WRF / HRRR / 3KM
NAMRR ALL SUPPORT THIS TREND... BOOSTING CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL IN THE NE CWA COULD APPROACH AN INCH... BUT IN GENERAL THE
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT... ALBEIT
WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MAINLY OVER THE NRN CWA. PRECIP SHOULD
TREND TO MORE DRIZZLE THAN LIGHT RAIN OVER THE WRN/SRN CWA AS THE
AIR DRIES OUT ABOVE -10C... NOTED BY THE RELATIVE DRY SLOT IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY NOW OVER SC AND WRN NC. THICK CLOUD COVER WILL
CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RANGE... AND EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT
TO BE JUST A CATEGORY OR TWO LOWER THAN CURRENT VALUES... FROM
AROUND 60 TO THE UPPER 60S NW TO SE. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM FRIDAY...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL TN INTO WRN KY WHILE
FILLING AND BECOMING ABSORBED INTO THE BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO A DEVELOPING LOW OVER TX AND NE MEXICO. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND FROM A WEAK CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW FROM THE S AND
SE TO A MORE ANTICYCLONIC WEAK FLOW FROM THE WSW... WITH DPVA AND
UPPER DIVERGENCE BOTH WEAKENING AND SHIFTING NORTH THROUGH SAT
NIGHT. MODELS STILL DEPICT ABOVE NORMAL PW... FROM 1.5" NW TO OVER
2.0" EAST OF I95... AND MOIST UPGLIDE CONTINUES BUT TO A BIT LESSER
DEGREE (DEPENDING ON THE MODEL)... SO THE THREAT OF PATCHY RAIN
SHOULD PERSIST. OVERALL AMOUNTS AND SNAPSHOT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LOWER THAN TODAY HOWEVER... MEANING THAT WHILE MOST PLACES SHOULD
SEE MEASURABLE RAIN... IT WON`T BE AS STEADY OR WITH QUITE THE
INTENSITY AS WE`VE GOT TODAY. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER COASTAL NC
NEAR THE PERSISTENT INVERTED TROUGH... AND WELL TO OUR NW OVER THE
SW VA MOUNTAINS WHERE TERRAIN UPLIFT WILL COME INTO PLAY... BUT
OTHERWISE CENTRAL NC SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF
RAINFALL. WILL HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS NE TO LIKELY SW TO START THE
DAY... FOLLOWED BY A DOWNWARD TREND TO LIKELY NE AND GOOD CHANCE SW
OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. ALL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WE`LL STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...
RESISTANT TO MIXING IN THE VERTICAL (LACK OF BOTH CONVECTION AND
SUBSIDENCE) AND HORIZONTALLY (DUE TO THE IN SITU STABLE POOL BEING
LOCKED IN OVER THE PIEDMONT/FOOTHILLS BY TERRAIN... THE COASTAL
TROUGH... AND LIGHT SURFACE WINDS TO INHIBIT STIRRING). AS SUCH...
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL REMAIN THE RULE SAT AND SAT NIGHT WITH ONLY
A LUCKY FEW (PROBABLY IN THE SE CWA) HAVING A CHANCE FOR SOME
SUNSHINE). EXPECT HIGHS MINIMALLY HIGHER THAN TODAY... FROM THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S NW TO SE. LOWS SAT NIGHT 60-68 WITH WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 320 PM FRIDAY...
IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THAT THERE WILL BE A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT FINALLY ARRIVING ON MONDAY. WHILE THE CLOSED LOW ALOFT
SHIFTS WEST AND HEIGHTS RISE SLIGHTLY OVER OUR REGION...THE AIRMASS
OVER CENTRAL NC REMAINS MOIST THROUGH MONDAY WITH PW VALUES STILL AT
OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS.
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE DIMINISHING WITH TIME AND
SHIFTING NORTH AS THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC. WILL HOLD ONTO CHANCE POPS IN AN ARC FROM THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN NORTHWEST INTO THE VA BORDER COUNTIES WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE SOUTHWEST. HIGHS SUNDAY MAY BE A COUPLE OF
DEGREES WARMER THAN SATURDAY BUT HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SEVERAL
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE TRIAD WHERE A WEDGE AIRMASS REMAINS
ESTABLISHED. SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO UPPER 70S.
HIGHS WILL MODERATE SOME ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN PIEDMONT WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S
SOUTHEAST. MORNING LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL RANGE IN
THE 60S.
A PERIOD OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH CENTRAL NC BEING
LOCATED IN BETWEEN A DEPARTING COASTAL STORM SYSTEM AND A LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FOR LATE MONDAY INTO LATE TUESDAY. WE SHOULD
SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER. THIS SHOULD BE THE DRIEST PERIOD OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 LOOK GOOD.
THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LATE
WEEK AS THE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS SHIFTING EAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY INTO LATE
THURSDAY. HPC GUIDANCE POPS HAVE TRENDED UP NOTABLY AND WE WILL
FOLLOW THAT TREND WITH CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
FRIDAYS FORECAST APPEARS RATHER UNCERTAIN WITH THE NEW OPERATIONAL
ECMWF DEVELOPING A SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST
THE SLOWLY MOVES NORTH ON FRIDAY. THE GFS AND THE GEFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS DON`T SUPPORT THAT SOLUTION. WILL NEED TO WAIT AND SEE. -
BLAES
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 120 AM SATURDAY...
THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT SUB VFR CONDITIONS DUE TO CEILINGS
AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A STRONG ELY LOW LEVEL JET
WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR THROUGH THIS EVENING
AS SFC WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE NE 8-13KTS.
TODAY...WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CEILINGS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY IFR-LOW END MVFR CEILINGS ANTICIPATED FOR THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE LIFR-IFR CEILINGS REDEVELOP AROUND SUNSET.
LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE ANTICIPATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. PRECIP
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HEAVY OR AS
WIDESPREAD AS FRIDAY.
THE MURKY AIR MASS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS WELL WITH LIFR-
IFR CEILINGS SUNDAY MORNING SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AFTERNOON.
AGAIN...PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE SHOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN
THE MORNING.
A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL
DOMINATE SINCE THE AIR MASS WILL NOT TOTALLY DRY OUT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...
WE`RE STILL GETTING RAINFALL REPORTS IN... BUT BY RADAR
ESTIMATION... WE`VE HAD ANYWHERE FROM A QUARTER INCH TO AN INCH AND
A HALF ACROSS CENTRAL NC... ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME TRAFFIC SNARLS AND
CONSIDERABLE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS... BUT NO NOTABLE RIVER OR
CREEK FLOODING. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH AN INCH... MAINLY
IN THE NRN CWA... BUT OVERALL ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN IS UNLIKELY TO
CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS. THE WET ROADS AND PONDING OF WATER HOWEVER
WILL REMAIN A TRAVEL ISSUE THROUGH TONIGHT. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...WSS
HYDROLOGY...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
116 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO DRY OUT UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY
WITH A DAILY RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW:
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE. TWEAKED PRECIP
TO FIT EXTRAPOLATED TRENDS FROM THE CURRENT RADAR...AND ADJUSTED
CLOUD COVER DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR THE SANTEE
RIVER WHERE SKIES ARE PROBABLY PARTLY CLOUDY AT WORST CURRENTLY.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO TEMPERATURES EITHER.
DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTH GEORGIA IS BEGINNING TO RETROGRADE
TOWARD CENTRAL TENNESSEE...MAINTAINING A SOUTHERLY MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE SURFACE LOW THAT CAME ASHORE IN
SOUTH CAROLINA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS DISSIPATING ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL GEORGIA. A NEW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR. THIS FEATURE WILL BE WITH US MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND...HELPING MAINTAIN SHOWER CHANCES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE TIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH CAROLINA DUE TO LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY CANADA. THIS HIGH IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD SOUTHWARD BUT
IS BEING HELD BACK BY THE OLD LOW OVER GEORGIA AND THE OFFSHORE
TROUGH. THE HIGH SHOULD BUILD A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME OF THE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES DOWN INTO NORTHERNMOST
SOUTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT. ALONG THE BEACHES WIND GUSTS OVER 20 MPH
ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOST WIDESPREAD WELL NORTH OF THE TROUGH
WHERE SHALLOW ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE 300K THETA SURFACE EXISTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT THE FLOW CHANGES DIRECTION CONSIDERABLY
BETWEEN THE 300K AND 305K SURFACES...EASTERLY VS. SOUTHEASTERLY...
HELPING EXPLAIN THE DIFFERENCE IN OBSERVED MOVEMENT BETWEEN THE
SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS AND THE DEEPER CONVECTIVE COLUMNS THAT HAVE
A MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT. THE HRRR/RUC MODELS SHOW THE BETTER
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING ACROSS SE NORTH CAROLINA PLUS THE
NORTHERN PEE DEE REGION OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS ACROSS THIS
REGION ARE IN THE 60-80 PERCENT RANGE. POPS ARE LESS...20-40
PERCENT...NEAR AND SOUTH OF MYRTLE BEACH AND LAKE CITY.
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER WARM FOR THIS LATE IN THE
YEAR...NEAR 68-70 WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MAIN JET WILL REMAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LOW ACROSS
GEORGIA TODAY WILL REMAIN W OF THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...ENDING UP
NEAR THE TEXAS COAST SUNDAY. WEAK RIDING ALOFT WILL POKE INTO THE
CAROLINAS SUN...AN EXTENSION OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. A STRONG
SURFACE HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL WEDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...A WEAK FRONT/TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR THE
CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW THROUGH 25 KFT OR SO...EXPECT CLOUDS WILL BE PLENTIFUL.
HOWEVER DEVELOPING BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TO INCREASE
INSTABILITY...AND MODELS DO SHOW CAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 500
J/KG OR GREATER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH...1.75 TO 2 INCHES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE DEEPEST NEARER TO THE
COAST..ESPECIALLY ON SAT. THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BE N OF THE
FORECAST AREA SAT AND SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROTATING
AROUND UPPER LOW...WELL TO OUR W AND THIS SUGGESTS LESS IN THE WAY
OF RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME...WILL CARRY LOWEST POPS ACROSS THE PEE
DEE REGION...CHANCE ON SAT AND HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE CAPE FEAR
COAST...MAINLY LIKELY. WILL THEN TREND POPS LOWER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR STRUGGLES TO MAKE
INROADS THIS FAR EAST. THAT BEING SAID...CAN NOT KEEP MENTION OF
SHOWERS OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND STILL EXPECT CONSIDERABLE
CLOUD COVER.
CLOUDS AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL SHRINK THE DIURNAL RANGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE PERIOD...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
RETROGRADES AND DEVELOPS INTO A LARGER SYSTEM OVER TEXAS. THE
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE EAST. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THIS
LOW PHASES WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH AND MOVES TO THE
EAST ALONG WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE
ACROSS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. POPS ARE IN THE PICTURE EACH DAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN SYSTEMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY POPS
DROP CONSIDERABLY BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO ADDRESS
INHERENT UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. NO REAL
HEADLINERS OR DRAMATIC CHANGES FOR TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...BROAD UPPER LOW QUITE VISIBLE ON WATER VAPOR MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH NORTHWEST INTO TENNESSEE. A BROAD BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE IS EXTENDING SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW.
MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN THAT THIS LARGE BAND OF
MOISTURE WILL ONLY AFFECT THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A VCSH MENTION WOULD LIKELY SUFFICE
FOR ALL TERMINALS...BUT THERE PROBABLY WILL BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR TWO AT ONE OR MORE OF THE TERMINALS. NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY BECOME SOLIDLY IFR AS WE HEAD FURTHER INTO THE
EVENING...WITH IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO
MVFR...WITH STILL A THREAT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. AGAIN
IF WE HEAT UP WITH SOME SOLAR INSOLATION...MORE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CWA.
CONTINUED NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM SATURDAY...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:
LATEST WIND GUSTS ARE STILL EXCEEDING 20 KNOTS ALONG THE BEACHES
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. WE`RE REALLY MISSING THAT WAVE HEIGHT DATA
FROM THE NEARSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY (NOAA ID 41038) WHICH
WAS DAMAGED BY A FISHING BOAT A MONTH OR SO AGO. LATEST HRRR AND
RUC STILL HAVE THE TRENDS RIGHT AND VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED
TO THE FORECAST. I DID INCREASE WIND SPEEDS TO 15-20 KT SUSTAINED
NORTH OF CAPE FEAR. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WE ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO SEE SIGNS THAT A NOCTURNAL NORTHEASTERLY
SURGE IS TAKING SHAPE AGAIN BETWEEN CAPE FEAR AND CAPE LOOKOUT.
FOR EACH OF THE PAST THREE NIGHTS WIND SPEEDS HAVE ACCELERATED
WELL BEYOND MODEL FORECASTS AT ALL COASTAL OBSERVATION PLATFORMS
IN ONSLOW BAY. I HAVE INCREASED WIND SPEED FORECASTS TO A SOLID 15
KNOTS IN THIS AREA WITH SEAS HOLDING AT A CHOPPY 4 FEET. SOUTH OF
CAPE FEAR EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KT SHOULD PREDOMINATE WITH
SEAS 2-4 FEET. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS
COMPRESSING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT UP AGAINST A LARGE CANADIAN HIGH
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY IN CANADA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY
LIGHT...BUT A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS COULD
DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AT ALMOST ANY TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IS NORTH OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...A TROUGH/WEAK FRONT WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
WATERS AND MAY OSCILLATE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH HEATING. THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY...ENE TO ESE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STILL DOES NOT APPEAR
SIGNIFICANT ACROSS THE WATERS AND THIS SHOULD KEEP WIND SPEEDS
NEAR OR BELOW 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
WILL INCREASE SWELL ENERGY AND WITH THAT...SEAS WILL REMAIN 3 TO 5
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM FRIDAY...GENERALLY LIGHT WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND THE SYNOPTIC DIRECTION WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO NOSE DOWN INTO THE AREA. THE
WEAKLY FORCED WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE DIRECTION TURNING TO EASTERLY AND POSSIBLY TO
THE SOUTHEAST FOR A FEW HOURS. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE ON THE LOWER
END OF A 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1030 PM FRIDAY...HIGH TIDES ASSOCIATED WITH THE FULL MOON
AND NORTHEAST WINDS REACHED 5.99 FEET MLLW AT WRIGHTSVILLE
BEACH...7.39 FEET MLLW AT MYRTLE BEACH...AND 5.82 FEET MLLW AT
DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON ON THE CAPE FEAR RIVER. TIDES WILL REMAIN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH EACH OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES THROUGH
MONDAY.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RJD
NEAR TERM...REK/TRA
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DL
MARINE...REK/RJD/TRA/SHK
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
342 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSWHERE LOOK TO HOLD JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN RRV AND ERN
ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
NEW TAF SET CONTINUES TO HAVE LIFR CIGS AT KBJI THROUGH 15Z.
LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT OF KBJI BEFORE
15Z...BUT NEW NAM MOS BREAKS IT OUT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT KTVF
AND WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PROGRESSION OF SEVERAL MID LEVEL
RIDGE/TROUGH COUPLETS INDICATED DURING OUR EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD AS MEAN FLOW REMAINS ESSENTIALLY ZONAL. BEST CHCS FOR PCPN
WOULD APPEAR TO BE ON WED AND FRI AS SHORTWVS MEANDER THROUGH.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE...OFFERING DRY WEATHER
WITH LOWS IN THE FROSTY 30S RECOVERING TO AFTN HIGHS CLOSE TO
SEASONAL. BY THURS ABV AVG VALUES ONCE AGAIN IN PLACE UNDER
SHORTWV RIDGE AS A BROADER UPSTREAM TROUGH LURKS OVER
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION POISED TO POUNCE ON NORTHERN PLAINS BY END OF
PERIOD/FRI.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ007-008-016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THIS EARLY MORNING UPDATE. TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...KEEPING SOUTHERLY
WIND SPEEDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH MOST AREAS WITH 20 TO 25 MPH IN THE
SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH AT MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WERE
KEEPING THE SURFACE LAYER WELL MIXED...WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS AT
MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S. EXPECT SURFACE WINDS TO
MAINTAIN AT 10 TO 20 MPH MOST AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
GRADUALLY. ADJUSTED EXPECTED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES UP A TAD...BUT
STILL EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.
AS IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR. THE LATEST SATELLITE LOOPS INDICATE THOSE
LOW CLOUDS EXPANDING SOMEWHAT AND MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NE/SD
BORDER. THE NAM MODEL INDICATES SUFFICIENT MOVEMENT NORTHWARD OR
FORMATION OF CLOUDS...BUT THE LATEST HRRR ITERATION WOULD SUGGEST
ONLY A HINT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE JAMES
VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY REGARDING THE POSSIBILITY
FOR MORNING LOW CLOUDS OR FOG FORMATION.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. SCATTERED CIRRUS
CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
CLOUDS FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE
SHOWN NO PROGRESSION NORTHWARD AS OF YET. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME LOW STRATUS MAKING IT UP INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH CENTRAL ND
TOWARD MORNING. BUT AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING THE WIDESPREAD
FOG/STRATUS WE EXPERIENCED THIS MORNING. WITH WINDS OF 10 TO 20
MPH OVERNIGHT EXPECT MILD LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS PROVIDING
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ONLY A FEW HIGH
CIRRUS SKIRTING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST
MONTANA WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT BRINGING AN
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH A SURFACE FLOW REMAINING
AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. MOISTURE FROM A FILLING UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ADVECTED NORTH TONIGHT AND COULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW STRATUS INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 50S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LATE AFTERNOON UPDATE OTHER THAN
ADJUSTING SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPDATING
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE CLOUDS TONIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY. IN SITU MOISTURE FROM A WEAK UPPER LOW
MEANDERING ABOUT IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF OKLAHOMA AND NEBRASKA
WILL GET PULLED NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS DEPICTED
BY THE NAM/GFS. AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AFTER SUNSET MORE
OF THE MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTH. ADDED CLOUDS TONIGHT SOUTH
CENTRAL SUFFICIENT FOR PARTLY CLOUDY BUT WILL MEED TO MONITOR. ON
SATURDAY AN H850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. WILL LIKELY SEE 90 DEGREES SOUTHWEST...AND MID TO UPPER
80S MOST OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THIS CURRENTLY IS BELOW
RECORD HIGHS BY ABOUT 3 TO 7 DEGREES BUT WILL BE A WARM LATE
SEPTEMBER DAY. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MIGRATES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL STEER SEVERAL EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
WAVES THROUGH THE LOCAL REGION...GIVING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SAT NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE JET ITSELF WILL PROVIDE UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY COMPARED TO SATURDAY...BUT STILL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER/EARLY OCTOBER IN THE 70S. AS THE UPPER JET EXITS
THE REGION...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY NIGHT BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
60S BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FROST MONDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH.
TEMPERATURE MODERATE WED-FRI WITH RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WITH AN INCREASING SURFACE GRADIENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH STRONGER SOUTH WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH AT KDIK. VERY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ALOFT OVER
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS NEAR 2000 FT AGL AROUND 40
KNOTS...THUS KEPT THE WIND SHEAR GROUP AT KISN WITH SOUTH WINDS OF
AROUND 8-12 KTS AT THE SURFACE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CURRENTLY OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY
THIS SATURDAY MORNING. THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD FOG SEEMS
UNLIKELY...BUT A STRATUS CLOUD DECK FORMING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT A SCATTERED LAYER AROUND 1000 FT AT KDIK
AND KBIS AROUND 09Z-15Z WITH A TEMPO GROUP WITH LIGHT FOG AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATEST TRENDS. SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON - WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
EXPANDED LOW CLOUDS FROM BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS FURTHER WEST INTO
CLEARWATER...BECKER...AND OTTER TAIL COUNTIES. EXPECT SOME LIGHT
FOG/MIST WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS IN SOME AREAS...WITH THICKER FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER A BIT WITH THIS UPDATE...OTHERWISE
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW MORNING. LEANED ON SATELLITE TRENDS AND HRRR/NAM MOS
DATA FOR SKY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG
IN THE PARTS OF THE FAR EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS...TEMPS AND LOW CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND PREFER THE GFS THAT
SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON MOISTURE FIELDS.
FOR TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE LOW CLOUD/FOG FORMATION. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME FOG PERHAPS
IN THE FAR EAST...FOR NOW HAVE NOT MENTIONED THIS BUT SOMETHING WE
WILL MONITOR THIS EVENING. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY WARM WITH WINDS
AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS.
ON SATURDAY...IT WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 OR
PERHAPS EVEN INTO THE LOW 80S. THERE WILL BE 40KT TO MIX FROM
850MB FROM THE VALLEY WEST...SO HAVE INCREASED WINDS TO NEAR
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST BY AFTERNOON.
FOR SAT NIGHT...IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY AS WE REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE NORTH. NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH OVERALL
COVERAGE...BUT SHOWALTERS TO GET SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE SO A FEW
RUMBLES CAN/T BE RULED OUT. HAVE JUST MENTIONED SHOWERS FOR NOW
THOUGH GIVEN STRONG CAP AND LACK OF DEEPER MOISTURE.
FOR MONDAY...IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH THE THREAT OF A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH A
CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN. WITH NW FLOW ALOFT...EXPECT A FEW UPPER
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE THRU THE FLOW BRINGING MORE CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PCPN. SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE DAKS/MN LATE MON INTO TUE
WITH MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS...BEFORE SHIFTING E AND RETURN FLOW
BRINGS THE START OF A WARMING TREND FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI SEP 25 2015
NEW TAF SET CONTINUES TO HAVE LIFR CIGS AT KBJI THROUGH 15Z.
LATEST HRRR MODEL TRIES TO PUSH CLOUDS OUT OF KBJI BEFORE
15Z...BUT NEW NAM MOS BREAKS IT OUT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z.
OTHERWISE...WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT KTVF
AND WEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
248 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SUN AS A DEEP WESTERN
NOAM TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LEE SIDE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF CAA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH
AND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS LL MOISTURE
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALL PLACES WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. EXPECTED
SOUTHERN WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 AT
TIMES...ESP OVER CENTRAL SD. WARMER DAY FORECAST ALL
PLACES...WARMEST ON THE WY PLAINS WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND DEEP MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 90S.
TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED GIVEN ONGOING PRESSURE FALLS. DOWNSLOPING AND
RESULTANT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT WARM CONDS IN THE LEE OF
THE BLACK HILLS...ESP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE SUNDAY WITH COOLER
CONDS EXPECTED ALL BUT SCENTRAL SD WHERE TIMING OF THE THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WARMER HIGHS THAN SAT. LINGERING LL MOISTURE/DIURNAL
HEATING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HILLS EDDY CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS...BUT
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY PROGS AND LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY THERE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF LSA AND FGEN ARRIVE...COUPLED
WITH THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...ESP WHERE RAIN AND RESULTANT WETBULBING
OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WRLY UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECM ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF WAVES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK. DROPPED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT MONDAY AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TOWARD MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VSBY EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WRN SD PLAINS BEFORE DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
WHILE THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE PWAT AT TWO INCHES...OTHERWISE THERE ARE
RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARMER MID-LEVELS. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODELS
INDICATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN EXPECTED IMPACT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...BUT SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS ON ANY OCCURRENCE OF WATERSPOUTS.
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH REPORTS FROM NAPLES...MIAMI BEACH AND MATHESON PARK
ALL REPORTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING OBSERVED WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH CURRENT VALUES AT VIRGINIA KEY ABOUT ONE
FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WITH NAPLES CURRENTLY ABOUT THREE
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDES THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE
VCSH FOR PERIODS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND THAT TIME. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED INTERIOR REGIONS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
744 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE
VCSH FOR PERIODS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND THAT TIME. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED INTERIOR REGIONS.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 76 89 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 89 78 / 20 20 30 20
MIAMI 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 30 20
NAPLES 90 76 91 76 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
924 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
REGION THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT SHOWERS ATTEMPTED TO BECOME
CONVECTIVE AROUND 4 AM MDT BUT QUICKLY LOST STRENGTH. SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT HOUR...ENDING MID-MORNING. WE WILL
HAVE SOME PASSING MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXPECTED AFTERNOON CLEARING. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. MOSTLY CLEAR IN SE OREGON. MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SCT-
BKN MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED -SHRA IN SW IDAHO THIS
MORNING...THEN CLOUDS DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS...
VARIABLE 10 KNOTS OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHWEST-NORTHWEST 5-15 KNOTS
WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AFTER 18Z. WINDS ALOFT...SOUTHWEST 20-
30 KNOTS UP THROUGH 10K FEET MSL.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...VFR WITH SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...6Z GFS NAILED THE SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO AS OF 425 AM SO WILL
UPDATE WITH THAT AND HRRR FOR CELLS LIFTING NE THROUGH MID MORNING.
/END UPDATE/...CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING OVER SW IDAHO /WITH A COLD
FRONT/ WILL EXIT E LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WITH TWO
EXCEPTIONS. HIGH BASED CU IS EXPECTED NEAR THE OREGON BLUE MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER S CENTRAL
IDAHO NEAR THE DRY COLD FRONT. PRECIP NO LONGER EXPECTED FOR SRN
TWF COUNTY BUT RATHER FARTHER S/E. WAVY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN S AND E OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH CLOUDINESS ALONG
THE ID-NV BORDER AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO PRECIPITATION.
NAM/EC KEEP A BIT STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER US...ABOUT 30M LESS
HEIGHT FALLS THAN GFS...SO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS UP A LITTLE THIS
WEEKEND. THIS IS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FORECAST THAN
PREVIOUSLY. LOW LAYER 0-3KM WINDS UP TO 30 MPH YESTERDAY WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO EXPOSED/WELL MIXED AREAS WILL HAVE
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TODAY AND 20 MPH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST
AREAS HAVE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS UP TO 10 MPH.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...AB
AVIATION.....BW
PREV SHORT TERM...VM
PREV LONG TERM....KA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS BOISE ID
323 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...6Z GFS NAILED THE SMALL AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SW IDAHO AS OF 425 AM SO WILL
UPDATE WITH THAT AND HRRR FOR CELLS LIFTING NE THROUGH MIOD
MORNING. /END UPDATE/...CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING OVER SW IDAHO
/WITH A COLD FRONT/ WILL EXIT E LEAVING MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WITH TWO EXCEPTIONS. HIGH BASED CU IS EXPECTED NEAR THE OREGON
BLUE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVER
S CENTRAL IDAHO NEAR THE DRY COLD FRONT. PRECIP NO LONGER EXPECTED
FOR SRN TWF COUNTY BUT RATHER FARTHER S/E. WAVY COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN S AND E OF OUR AREA THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH
CLOUDINESS ALONG THE ID-NV BORDER AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION. NAM/EC KEEP A BIT STRONGER UPPER RIDGE OVER
US...ABOUT 30M LESS HEIGHT FALLS THAN GFS...SO NUDGED HIGH TEMPS
UP A LITTLE THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS A DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
FORECAST THAN PREVIOUSLY. LOW LAYER 0-3KM WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
YESTERDAY WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SO EXPOSED/WELL MIXED
AREAS WILL HAVE GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH TODAY AND 20 MPH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHILE MOST AREAS HAVE LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS UP TO 10
MPH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER
THE REGION WITH A GRADUAL COOLING TREND EXPECTED. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN/ AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ZONAL FLOW WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH DRY AIR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE
12KT OR LESS BECOMING SOUTHWEST 5-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT IN
SOUTHEAST OREGON AND CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
ALOFT AT 10K FT MSL...SW 20-30KT.
SUNDAY OUTLOOK...SCT-BKN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS. SURFACE WINDS
GENERALLY 10KT OR LESS...BECOMING NW 5-15KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....KA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF MOST ROBUST SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID KEEP
NUMEROUS POPS NEARER THE LMK CWA BORDER...BUT BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN DOWN STREAM
RETURNS BEING LOWER THIS SEEMED THE BEST OVERALL APPROACH.
OVERALL CONSSHORT AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS...SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR WANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS SE OF JACKSON.
RIGHT NOW NOT REALLY SEEING THIS BEING ALL THAT REALISTIC BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT. ALSO UPDATED THE WINDS PARTICULARLY IN
THE RIDGES AND BLUEGRASS AREAS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A DECENT
925MB JET COMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
SYM HAVING SOME DECENT GUSTS INTO THE 13 TO 16 KNOT RANGE THIS
MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SHOWERS ARE TURNING A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN IT LOOKED LIKE THEY
WOULD BE EARLIER. THUS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
AREAWIDE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WITH POCKETS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BACK INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING AREAS JUST NORTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK. THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY OVER THE LAST 3 TO 6
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...STRETCHING UP THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THUS...WILL PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTHEAST...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS IN CHECK TODAY. THUS...WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT FARTHER NORTH. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST...BUT AGAIN RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT SUNDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF COMPLETELY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 ONCE AGAIN WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER RECOVER
FOR TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A COUPLE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN TAKES ON A
MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANMOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE...ANY INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS CHANGES HOWEVER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE PUT SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
THAT PUSHES THROUGH STALLS ACROSS KY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LEAVING A DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUED AREA OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS...AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FACT OF
SOME RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE AREA...THE SLIGHT
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED. THUS HAVE STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
A MIXTURE OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THIS MORNING AS RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. CIGS SHOULD INCREASE
TO VFR BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
CONTINUE. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN IF WE WILL STAY AT VFR
TONIGHT...OR GO BACK DOWN AGAIN. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE
PLACE AND ITS CERTAINLY A DIFFICULT FORECAST EVEN 12 TO 18 HOURS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL JUST GO VFR AND SEE WHAT THE 12Z MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS BEFORE INTRODUCING MORE LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE HAS POSTED. STRATUS CONTS TO LINGER W OF HWY 183.
SKY FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS AREA...BUT
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INCREASE WITH
THE STRATUS LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATOCU. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 3-5F W OF HWY 183 WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA...A VERY NICE DAY IS IN PROGRESS. ENJOY IT!
WE WILL BE EVALUATING POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE W
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TOP/OAX 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LVL DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE E. SO IT MIGHT NOT BE A PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS THRU NOON. OBSERVED
TEMPS/DWPTS WERE SVRL DEGS BELOW THE FCST OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE SKIES WERE M/CLEAR AND WERE ABOVE THE FCST OVER
THE SW 1/2 DUE TO CLOUD COVER. FCST NOW BETTER REFLECTS REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUN MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. KGRI HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE TAF. THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS REMAINS NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD START TO LIFT
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS THRU NOON. OBSERVED
TEMPS/DWPTS WERE SVRL DEGS BELOW THE FCST OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE SKIES WERE M/CLEAR AND WERE ABOVE THE FCST OVER
THE SW 1/2 DUE TO CLOUD COVER. FCST NOW BETTER REFLECTS REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. KGRI HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE TAF. THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS REMAINS NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD START TO LIFT
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
555 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 551 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
STRATUS HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. KGRI HAS
CLEARED OUT AND HAVE REMOVED FOG FROM THE TAF. THE EDGE OF THE
STRATUS REMAINS NEAR THE KEAR TERMINAL. THE VISIBILITY HAS BEEN
LOWER EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THAT IT SHOULD START TO LIFT
AFTER THE SUN COMES UP THIS MORNING. STRATUS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE WEST AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1012 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WE HAVE EXPANDED THE WIND ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN AND GRIGGS COUNTY. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 40KT TO MIX
EFFICIENTLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA...WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH AT
TIMES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO HOLD
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT
OTHERWISE ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF
SUN TODAY. WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN
RRV AND ERN ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR THRU THE FCST PD. LOW CLOUDS EXITING BEMIDJI AT 12Z. SOUTH
WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
659 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LOW CLOUDS CLEARING OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN FCST AREA....SO UPDATED
SKY COVER TO REFLECT FASTER CLEARING. OTHERWISE MAINLY CLEAR SKY
THIS MORNING. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSWHERE LOOK TO HOLD JUST
SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT OTHERWISE
ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF SUN TODAY.
WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN RRV AND ERN
ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR THRU THE FCST PD. LOW CLOUDS EXITING BEMIDJI AT 12Z. SOUTH
WINDS TO TAKE CONTROL TODAY AND INCREASE TO THE 15 TO 30 KT RANGE
IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND EASTERN ND. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES THIS
AFTN AND TONIGHT. WINDS LIKELY TO REMAIN GUSTY INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ007-008-016-026-027-029-030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
247 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)
CURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4 CORNERS KEPT MUCH OF THE CWA
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG THIS
MORNING OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS SLOWED THE WARMING PROCESS
CONSIDERABLY.
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA FLATTENS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS...BUT DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. MAIN FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE WHETHER LOW CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG WILL REDEVELOP ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY ALONG THE
EASTERN CO BORDER. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SFC WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BE MORE SOUTHERLY THEN E-SE...BUT HRRR...WRF AND RUC MODELS HINT
AT EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING RIGHT ALONG THE ARKANSAS TONIGHT
THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. THIS WOULD AID IN SOME LOW CLOUD/FOG
DEVELOPMENT FOR OTERO...BENT AND PROWERS COUNTIES...AND PORTIONS
OF KIOWA AND BACA COUNTIES AS WELL...WITH KLHX AND KLAA BEING THE
MAIN AREAS AFFECTED. THEREFORE...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FROM 06Z-13Z TONIGHT. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AND NOT BECOME DENSE.
OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 50F FOR THE
PLAINS...30S AND 40S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
CLIMB INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...60S AND 70S FOR THE MTS. MOORE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
...PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE...
THE PATTERN WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THIS PERIOD AS LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND THEY SHOULD BRING SOME COOLER TEMPS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF SOME SCTD PRECIP TO THE REGION.
MONDAY...
ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS RUNNING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL ALL AREAS. MAX TEMPS ON MOST OF THE PLAINS WILL
BE IN THE 85 TO 90F RANGE WITH 80S IN EL PASO COUNTY. TEMPS IN THE
VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE WARM WITH 70S TO AROUND 80F. AN ISOLD SHOWER
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
TUESDAY...
A WEAK COOL FRONT IS PROJECTED TO COME DOWN THE PLAINS SOMETIME
TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK WAVE AT MIDDLE LEVELS MOVES TO OUR NORTH.
WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH SOME CAPE SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLD
TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
PLAINS/MTNS INTERFACE. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER REGIONWIDE WITH
HIGHS ON THE PLAINS RANGING FROM THE 70S ACROSS N EL PASO COUNTY
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE LOWER ARK RVR VALLEY. TEMPS WILL STILL BE
QUITE MILD IN THE VALLEYS WITH 70S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY...
WE GET HOT AGAIN WITH TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION SIMILAR TO MONDAYS
HIGHS. IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY ACROSS THE FCST AREA AS RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THURSDAY...
BOTH MODELS SHOW A MORE POTENT SHORT WAVE COMING TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE WEST ON THIS DAY. GFS IS A BIT WEAKER BUT QUICKER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE EC IS STRONGER AND A BIT SLOWER. IN EITHER CASE
THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE HOT ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT WAVE
WITH MID 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 70S VALLEYS. FOR
NOW...I ONLY HAVE SLIGHT POPS IN THE C MTNS THURSDAY EVENING.
FRIDAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
SOMETIMES LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. IF EC IS CORRECT...WE WILL
SEE A CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTNS. IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT...POPS CHANCES WILL BE LESS AS SHORT WAVE IS
WEAKER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE. ATTM...MAX TEMPS FOR THU ARE PROJECTED
TO BE IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S....BUT I THINK THESE VALUES MAY BE A
BIT WARM NO MATTER WHAT GUIDANCE VERIFIES. I WOULD NOT BE TOO
SURPRISED IF LATER NDFD FCST COME IN COOLER FOR MAX TEMPS ON
FRIDAY.
SATURDAY...
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS ARE LIKELY AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING THE THREE MAIN TAF SITES OF KCOS...KPUB
AND KALS. SFC WINDS ALONG THE KANSAS STATE LINE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT...INSTEAD OF E-SE...SO ANY LOW CLOUDS OR FOG
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY IN BENT
AND PROWERS COUNTIES...MAINLY AFFECTING KLAA. HOWEVER...LIGHT FOG IN
KLHX IS A POSSIBILITY AS WELL BETWEEN 08-13Z. FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TO BECOME DENSE AS IT DID THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
352 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.CURRENTLY...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY IN
NE FL SLOWLY PUSHING WWD TO NW. NOT WHOLE LOT OF INSTABILITY SO
FAR WITH SBCAPE MAXIMIZED AT ABOUT 2000-2500 J/KG...BUT AIRMASS
IS FAIRLY TROPICAL WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF ABOUT -6 AND NARROW CAPE
ALOFT. ANTICIPATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION REST OF THE AFTN MAINLY
INLAND WITH MAIN CONCERN LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...MAINLY IN NE FL.
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT...ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS IN THE EVENING
WILL GRADUALLY FADE WITH COASTAL TROUGH SET UP AGAIN TO PRODUCE
SOME OVERNIGHT MARINE SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS IN CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL NE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY COMING IN OFF
THE ATLC. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...LOW STRATUS AND PATCHY DENSE
FOG IS LIKELY TONIGHT. RAP AND SREF SHOW A VERY MOIST LAYER AROUND
500-1000 FT WITH SREF LOW CIGS PROBABILITIES BETTER THAN 70%. LOWS
TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
SUNDAY...AFTER AREAS OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECT SCATTERED
MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS TO SHIFT INLAND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. A NE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND
A WEAK SURFACE LOW DRIFTING INTO THE GULF...NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL INCREASE WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAYS. HIGH
SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. MODELS SHOW SURGE OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE FL PANHANDLE AND
SUWANNEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS POPS WILL BE HIGHER OVER OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW PWATS REACHING NEAR 2.5" WHICH IS MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ENHANCED
BY UPPER IMPULSES IN SW FLOW ALOFT. UNCERTAINTY STILL EVIDENT IN
TRACK OF SURFACE LOW WITH GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MOVING LOW INTO THE FL
PANHANDLE ON TUESDAY AND THEN ACROSS S GA TUESDAY NIGHT. ECMWF
SHOWS A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH...WITH THE LOW MOVING ACROSS NE FL
WITH HIGHER QPF VALUES FOR NE FL.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF WEAKENS AND OPENS UP AS IT PHASES WITH A NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS
WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA DECREASING THE HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES.
ANOTHER STRONG SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD DOWN THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH INCREASING ONSHORE WINDS AND A CONTINUING
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...OCNL MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTN WITH A FEW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. VFR EXPECTED THIS EVENING ...WITH LOW CIGS
EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. CIGS EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO IFR AND
POSSIBLY INTO LIFR CATEGORY AFTER 06Z...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
AROUND THE 09Z-13Z TIME FRAME. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO MVFR BY
14Z/15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...E TO NE WINDS AOB 15 KT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 3-4 FT RANGE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN THROUGH
BY MONDAY AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES. WIND DIRECTION VEERS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS THE WEDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND LOW PRESSURE
FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO ONSHORE WINDS
AND SURF AROUND THE 3 FT RANGE.
COASTAL IMPACTS: ISSUING A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS
EVENING HIGH TIDE AND ONSHORE WINDS. BASED ON GUIDANCE...WE SHOULD
JUST TOUCH MINOR FLOODING CRITERIA. WE HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND
THIS ADVISORY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY DUE TO UPCOMING FULL MOON AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 69 84 70 83 / 30 40 20 60
SSI 72 79 72 79 / 30 30 30 50
JAX 72 82 73 83 / 30 40 20 60
SGJ 75 81 73 82 / 30 40 30 50
GNV 71 85 71 84 / 30 50 30 60
OCF 72 87 72 86 / 40 50 40 60
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL DUVAL-
COASTAL NASSAU-FLAGLER-INLAND DUVAL-INLAND NASSAU-ST. JOHNS.
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL CAMDEN-
COASTAL GLYNN-INLAND CAMDEN-INLAND GLYNN.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/ZIBURA/GUILLET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...TERMINAL KOPF IS CURRENTLY BEING AFFECTED BY
A THUNDERSTORM WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES WITH SHOWERS
AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF MOST OF THE
TERMINALS...MAINLY FROM THE INTERIOR REGIONS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE INLAND
BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINALS...WITH ALL TERMINALS ASSIGNED
VCTS AROUND THE 18Z TIME FRAME. WITH ANY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
UPDATE...
WHILE THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH THE PWAT AT TWO INCHES...OTHERWISE THERE ARE
RELATIVELY POOR LAPSE RATES AND WARMER MID-LEVELS. SO WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODELS
INDICATING MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN EXPECTED IMPACT WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...BUT SO FAR THIS MORNING HAVE NOT RECEIVED ANY
REPORTS ON ANY OCCURRENCE OF WATERSPOUTS.
CONTINUE TO RECEIVE REPORTS OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH REPORTS FROM NAPLES...MIAMI BEACH AND MATHESON PARK
ALL REPORTING MINOR FLOODING. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING OBSERVED WATER LEVELS HIGHER THAN
PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH CURRENT VALUES AT VIRGINIA KEY ABOUT ONE
FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS WITH NAPLES CURRENTLY ABOUT THREE
QUARTERS OF A FOOT ABOVE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A COASTAL FLOOD
STATEMENT IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL ZONES WITH MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE NEAR HIGH TIDES THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
AVIATION...
DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL HAVE
VCSH FOR PERIODS...BUT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST
SEA BREEZES EXPECTED TODAY...WITH MOST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER...ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 18Z WITH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTION INITIATING
AROUND THAT TIME. BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
CONVECTION MAINLY EXPECTED INTERIOR REGIONS.
60
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH WEAK RIDGING FURTHER EAST. THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD AS
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW THE TROUGH CUTTING OFF AND REMAINING NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF...THOUGH ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PER NHC DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS. EITHER WAY...MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPS THIS LOW
WELL WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO. HOWEVER, IT STILL WILL BE RATHER MOIST LOCALLY ON A
PREVAILING EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW. THIS WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE GULF COAST WITH
LESSER CHANCES ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
LIKE THE HRRR SOLUTION TODAY WITH CONVECTION FAVORING THE EAST
COAST THIS MORNING (THOUGH NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO ACTIVE) BEFORE
DEVELOPING/TRANSITIONING FURTHER INLAND. SO CUT POPS DOWN FOR THE
ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS COMPARED TO THE MODEL BLEND
OUTPUT.
LAPSE RATES REMAIN POOR AS WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS...SO
THE MAIN TSTORM IMPACT TODAY...AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOR THAT
MATTER...WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...THE CUT OFF LOW LOOKS TO OPEN UP AND HEAD
EAST. GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH AND FURTHER NORTH WITH MORE
RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FL WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A SHARPER TROUGH
ACROSS NORTH FL INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH MORE
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FL. SO THE PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS UNCERTAIN.
TIDES ACROSS SOUTH FL ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING 0.8 FEET ABOVE
PREDICTED. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WAS OBSERVED AT NAPLES AND MIAMI
BEACH YESTERDAY...AND AS TIDES RISE TOWARDS A PEAK MONDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL TIDAL FLOODING IS ALMOST CERTAIN IN THE
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS AT EACH TIDE CYCLE. THE NEXT HIGH TIDES FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST IS NEAR SUNRISE THEN BETWEEN 7-8 PM THIS
EVENING. FOR NAPLES THE NEXT HIGH TIDE IS AT AROUND NOON TIME THEN
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE...PREVAILING AT 5-10 KT THEN
INCREASING JUST A TAD EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL PREVAIL AT 4 FT
OR LESS WITH A SMALL NORTH SWELL ATLANTIC WATERS. A SOMEWHAT
LARGER SWELL ARRIVES MONDAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
ESPECIALLY OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH WAVES PERHAPS TO 5 FT, WITH
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. SURFACE WINDS MAY
VEER SOMEWHAT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 89 77 89 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 89 78 88 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI 78 89 78 90 / 20 30 20 40
NAPLES 76 91 76 90 / 40 40 30 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW AREA OF MOST ROBUST SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY THIS LATE MORNING HOUR. DID KEEP
NUMEROUS POPS NEARER THE LMK CWA BORDER...BUT BRING MORE IN THE
WAY OF SCATTERED SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. GIVEN DOWN STREAM
RETURNS BEING LOWER THIS SEEMED THE BEST OVERALL APPROACH.
OVERALL CONSSHORT AND HRRR SEEM TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON
THIS...SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. HOWEVER THE HRRR WANTED TO
INCREASE THE INTENSITY OF SCATTERED AREA OF SHOWERS SE OF JACKSON.
RIGHT NOW NOT REALLY SEEING THIS BEING ALL THAT REALISTIC BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THAT. ALSO UPDATED THE WINDS PARTICULARLY IN
THE RIDGES AND BLUEGRASS AREAS. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO A DECENT
925MB JET COMING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
SYM HAVING SOME DECENT GUSTS INTO THE 13 TO 16 KNOT RANGE THIS
MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS AS
WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SHOWERS ARE TURNING A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN IT LOOKED LIKE THEY
WOULD BE EARLIER. THUS...HAVE WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS
AREAWIDE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS
MORNING WITH POCKETS OF RAIN CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...BACK INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A FEW SHOWERS STILL
AFFECTING AREAS JUST NORTH OF I-64 THIS MORNING...BUT THESE SHOULD
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH BY DAYBREAK. THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DOWNSLOPING EAST/SOUTHEAST
WINDS. THIS HAS KEPT MUCH OF THE AREA DRY OVER THE LAST 3 TO 6
HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
THIS MORNING...WE MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS BECOME A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...STRETCHING UP THE I-75
CORRIDOR. THUS...WILL PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. FARTHER NORTHEAST...NOT
MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY AS FORCING REMAINS WEAK.
THE COMBINATION OF WEAK FORCING AND THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL KEEP
THINGS IN CHECK TODAY. THUS...WILL JUST GO WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE
EXPECTED...EXCEPT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFT FARTHER NORTH. BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN WILL REMAIN TO THE EAST...BUT AGAIN RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN LOW. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO EXIT SUNDAY...RAIN
CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF COMPLETELY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN COOL
TODAY...STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 ONCE AGAIN WITH ALL THE CLOUD
COVER. CLOUDS MAY THIN A BIT ON SUNDAY...ALLOWING A BETTER RECOVER
FOR TEMPERATURES...SO WILL GO WITH MID 70S FOR HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG
TROUGH BEGINS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MEANWHILE DURING THIS TIME...A COUPLE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCES WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS
CONTINUING TO BRING SOME MOISTURE INTO THE AREA IN SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THE MENTIONED TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND OFF
TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE PATTERN TAKES ON A
MORE AMPLIFIED LOOK WITH A DIGGING TROUGH IN THE EAST AND BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT PROVIDING A
CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. WITH A STOUT CAP IN
PLACE...ANY INSTABILITY WILL CERTAINLY NOT BE ENOUGH FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS CHANGES HOWEVER BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FORCING FROM THE
FRONT...INSTABILITY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT SO HAVE PUT SOME THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST. THE FRONT
THAT PUSHES THROUGH STALLS ACROSS KY BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
LEAVING A DECENT GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL PROVIDE A
CONTINUED AREA OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. WITH THIS...AN ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE FACT OF
SOME RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED OVER THE AREA...THE SLIGHT
INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS STILL ALLOWS FOR SOME PRECIP IN THE
EXTENDED. THUS HAVE STAYED WITH THE SUPERBLEND SOLUTION FOR POPS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
OVERALL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS REMAINS THE STORY FOR THE UPCOMING
TAF PERIOD...THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF SHRA AND VCSH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS HAS BEEN BROUGHT ON BY A UPPER LEVEL
FEATURE THAT HAS CONTINUED TO RETROGRADE TO THE NW OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. RIGHT NOW VIS SAT AND OBS ARE SHOWING IMPROVING
CONDITIONS...BUT OCCASIONAL MVFR OR LOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN
ANY RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE
DIVERGENT WITH THE OVERNIGHT CLOUDS...DID OPT TO INTRODUCE A HIGH
MVFR DECK OVERNIGHT. THAT SAID THINK THE CIGS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON VFR CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE GUSTIEST AT SYM
WHERE WE HAVE SEEN SOME 15 PLUS KNOT GUST...OTHER SITES SEEING
FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. THE AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE HIGHER WINDS WILL
BE THE RIDGES AND THE BLUEGRASS...HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
356 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR
SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE
BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER SO KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 MPH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS IT HEADS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS TOWARDS SHERIDAN.
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE. AGAIN
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT CHANCES INCREASE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
CONTINUED COOLING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE EASTERLIES SPREAD
WESTWARD AND A BIT OF MIDLEVEL WARMING PROVIDES WEAK LIFT. NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE MOISTURE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT
SOUTHEAST MONTANA STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN AND HOPEFULLY RETURNS OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEASONABLE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATES. WARM 850MB TEMPS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
WARM UP VERY WELL WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY BUT
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MILES CITY. NOT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNTIL
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OFF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A MUCH
COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY AS GOOD FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE
EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE INTERACTION OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
WHILE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN WANTED TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE.
GIVEN THAT THIS WAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE LAST FEW
RUNS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP
OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
ONE SHOULD NOTE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO SHIFTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ARE LIKELY.
DOBBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO
THE NW. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER KMLS AT 06Z TONIGHT
AND COULD LAST UNTIL ABOUT 13Z TOMORROW. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 093 055/072 048/070 046/076 053/079 052/073 048/070
0/B 11/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 086 047/073 042/071 043/075 046/077 046/069 043/070
1/B 21/B 11/B 11/U 12/W 33/W 21/B
HDN 097 052/074 046/072 045/077 049/082 049/076 045/071
0/B 11/B 21/B 11/B 12/W 34/W 42/W
MLS 095 057/074 047/069 045/077 050/082 051/075 048/070
0/B 01/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 34/W 43/T
4BQ 096 056/076 049/071 047/077 050/082 052/076 048/071
0/U 00/B 22/T 22/W 21/B 34/W 43/T
BHK 091 054/073 047/066 044/071 048/079 050/073 047/067
0/U 00/B 32/T 21/B 21/B 34/W 43/T
SHR 094 052/076 046/073 045/076 046/080 049/074 044/070
0/U 00/B 22/T 21/B 22/W 23/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
319 PM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR SUN AND MON...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH LEWISTOWN ON TRACK FOR AN EVENING
PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL WYOMING. RADAR
SHOWS SOME WEAK RETURNS WITH HRRR CONTINUING TO ADVERTISE A LITTLE
BIT OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAINLY NORTH OF THE
YELLOWSTONE RIVER SO KEPT AN ISOLATED MENTION BUT DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE. DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 MPH
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ESPECIALLY AS IT HEADS SOUTH OF
BILLINGS TOWARDS SHERIDAN.
COOLER DAY ON SUNDAY BUT MAINLY DRY UNTIL A WEAK DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY. COULD SEE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS BUT
EXPECT SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA
WHERE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE LEADING EDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT GENERATING A BIT OF UPSLOPE. AGAIN
MUCH PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED BUT CHANCES INCREASE AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES AS MOISTURE DEEPENS AS THE NIGHT GOES ON.
CONTINUED COOLING TREND ON MONDAY AS THE EASTERLIES SPREAD
WESTWARD AND A BIT OF MIDLEVEL WARMING PROVIDES WEAK LIFT. NOT
ENOUGH TO GENERATE MOISTURE FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES BUT
SOUTHEAST MONTANA STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A SHOWER. BORSUM
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES
IN AND HOPEFULLY RETURNS OUR FORECAST AREA TO SEASONABLE AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST
BEYOND FRIDAY WITH A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS.
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE CENTRAL
PARTS OF THE STATES. WARM 850MB TEMPS WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO
WARM UP VERY WELL WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ON TUESDAY BUT
AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF MILES CITY. NOT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNTIL
THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL OFF THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN RAIN
AMOUNTS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE A MUCH
COOLER AND CLOUDIER DAY AS GOOD FORCING FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES IN THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...LEE-SIDE
CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD ALLOW ADDITIONAL WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SOME HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN EXTREME EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS REMAINS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WHILE THE
EURO IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING THE SYSTEM OUT SO KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 CAN BE EXPECTED.
BEGINNING ON SATURDAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST. THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE HAVING TROUBLE HANDLING THE INTERACTION OF A
PACIFIC UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ANOTHER AMPLIFYING SYSTEM LATE IN
THE WEEK. THE LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
WHILE THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN WANTED TO BUILD ANOTHER RIDGE.
GIVEN THAT THIS WAS A PRETTY SIGNIFICANT SHIFT FROM THE LAST FEW
RUNS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ENSEMBLE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD KEEP
OUR AREA NEAR OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY.
ONE SHOULD NOTE THIS FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN SO SHIFTS IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST ARE LIKELY.
DOBBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
LOCALIZED OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT SHIFTING SURFACE WINDS TO
THE NW. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE OVER KMLS AND KSHR AFTER
06Z TONIGHT AND WILL LAST UNTIL ABOUT 13Z TOMORROW. DOBBS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 055/072 048/070 046/076 053/079 052/073 048/070 047/063
11/B 11/B 11/B 12/W 33/W 32/W 11/B
LVM 047/073 042/071 043/075 046/077 046/069 043/070 042/065
21/B 11/B 11/U 12/W 33/W 21/B 22/W
HDN 052/074 046/072 045/077 049/082 049/076 045/071 044/067
11/B 21/B 11/B 12/W 34/W 42/W 11/B
MLS 057/074 047/069 045/077 050/082 051/075 048/070 045/065
01/B 22/W 11/B 12/W 34/W 43/T 12/W
4BQ 056/076 049/071 047/077 050/082 052/076 048/071 046/067
00/B 22/T 22/W 21/B 34/W 43/T 12/W
BHK 054/073 047/066 044/071 048/079 050/073 047/067 045/063
00/B 32/T 21/B 21/B 34/W 43/T 12/W
SHR 052/076 046/073 045/076 046/080 049/074 044/070 040/066
00/B 22/T 21/B 22/W 23/W 32/W 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
ANOTHER UPDATE HAS POSTED. STRATUS CONTS TO LINGER W OF HWY 183.
SKY FCST HAS BEEN TRENDED MORE PESSIMISTIC IN THIS AREA...BUT
EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS BREAKS IN THE OVERCAST INCREASE WITH
THE STRATUS LIFTING INTO A DECK OF STRATOCU. HIGH TEMPS WERE
LOWERED 3-5F W OF HWY 183 WHERE CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HEATING. FOR THE
REST OF THE FCST AREA...A VERY NICE DAY IS IN PROGRESS. ENJOY IT!
WE WILL BE EVALUATING POTENTIAL FOR FOG REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE W
HALF OF THE FCST AREA. TOP/OAX 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LVL DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE E. SO IT MIGHT NOT BE A PROBLEM.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SENT A QUICK UPDATE TO TEMPS/DWPTS/WINDS THRU NOON. OBSERVED
TEMPS/DWPTS WERE SVRL DEGS BELOW THE FCST OVER THE NE 1/2 OF THE
FCST AREA WHERE SKIES WERE M/CLEAR AND WERE ABOVE THE FCST OVER
THE SW 1/2 DUE TO CLOUD COVER. FCST NOW BETTER REFLECTS REALITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SO FAR THERE HAVE
BEEN A FEW LOCATIONS THAT TEMPORARILY DROP TO LESS THAN A MILE
VISIBILITY...BUT THESE SEEM TO BE SHORT LIVED AND AT LEAST SOMEWHAT
SPORADIC.
THE FIRST CONCERN FOR THE MORNING WILL BE THE FOG. HAVE SOME CONCERN
NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE STRATUS DECK THAT FOG COULD FORM. THE
DEW POINT SPREAD IS ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES...THE CLEARING SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL OFF AND WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE EAST. ON
THE OTHER HAND...TO THE EAST OF THE STRATUS DECK HAS LOWER DEW
POINTS AND A GREATER DEW POINT SPREAD. WINDS ARE STILL LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST HRRR HAS A SMALL AREA OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUN RISE. THIS AREA IS NEAR THE
PROJECTED EDGE OF THE STRATUS AROUND 12Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE
AREAS OF FOG IN. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AROUND A MILE OR SO AND WILL
KEEP IT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA INSTEAD OF GETTING TOO SPECIFIC.
THE SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND FAR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
HAVE ENDED. THERE MAY BE A SPRINKLE OR SO IN A FEW AREAS...BUT DO
NOT EXPECT THERE TO BE MUCH OF ANYTHING. WILL REMOVE THE SHOWER
CHANCES.
A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS BEEN DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA TODAY. A SURFACE
HIGH TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN A LITTLE TODAY AND WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTH AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY. THEY WILL STILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
MAINLY 5 TO 15 MPH. THE MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH AND THE CLOUDS OUT
THERE NOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND LEAVE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH THE SUNSHINE. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DEW POINTS WILL BE LOWER. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN LIES WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
STILL LOOKING AT A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH MODELS REMAINING IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON SUNDAY...SHOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
CONTINUING TO BE THE MAIN PLAYER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS RIDGE
AXIS...SET UP BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER TX AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE PAC NW/NRN ROCKIES...EXTENDS FROM HIGH PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER THE BAJA THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THE
SFC...EXPECTING SOUTHERLY WINDS TO BE IN PLACE DURING THE DAY...AS
THE CWA SITS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SPEEDS LOOK
TO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS IN THE
15 TO 20 MPH RANGE. WITH SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT WORKING ITS WAY BACK
EAST INTO THE AREA...EXPECTING A BUMP UP IN HIGHS...INTO THE
LOWER/MID 80S.
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
WORK WEEK...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SLIDING EAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY AREA FURTHER BREAKS DOWN THE MAIN
RIDGE AXIS AND STARTS PUSHING IT FURTHER SOUTH. GENERAL AGREEMENT
AMONG MODELS SHOW IT LOCATED OVER FAR SRN PORTIONS OF THE CWA/IF NOT
JUST SOUTH OF OUR SRN BORDER BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH MORE ZONAL UPPER
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE BY THEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE PUSHING THAT
ABOVE MENTIONED SFC FRONT SOUTH...WITH MODELS NOT IN TOO BAD OF
AGREEMENT SHOWING IT BY 12Z MONDAY HAVING MOVED THROUGH A GOOD CHUNK
OF OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...AND BY 12Z TUESDAY IS IN THE I-70 AREA OF
NRN KS. INCREASED LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH...ALONG
WITH MODELS SHOWING MORE FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF UPPER LEVEL JET
ENERGY MOVING INTO THE REGION...LOOKS TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TO THE CWA THROUGH ROUGHLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. KEPT THE
MAIN AREA OF POPS ACROSS OUR SC NEB COUNTIES...WITH MODELS NOT
SHOWING A WHOLE LOT MOVING THROUGH NC KS. HAVE A THUNDER MENTION IN
PLACE...WHILE MODELS ARE CERTAINLY NOT SHOWING AN ABUNDANCE OF
INSTABILITY...ITS NOT ZERO EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE A
BIT TRICKY WITH THAT SFC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY...AS WELL AS ON TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AFFECTING A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA. MODELS SHOWING
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT ARE SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF ESP SRN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA ON MONDAY...AND HAVE TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 70S IN THE
NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO UPPER 70S SOUTH.
HAVE SOME LINGERING 20 POPS IN PLACE ON WED ACROSS NERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THEY NEED TO BE THERE AT ALL OR
NOT IS NOT HIGH. MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS
STARTING TO BUILD BACK NORTH ACROSS THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NM/MEX BORDER AREA. THIS
RIDGING SLIDES EAST ONTO THE PLAINS AS WE GET INTO THURSDAY...BEING
PUSHED BY ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIGGING SOUTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. EXPECTING ANOTHER BUMP BACK UP IN TEMPS...INTO THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S BY THURSDAY. LOOKING TO THE VERY END OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD THURS NIGHT/FRI...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOOKING TO BRING THE
NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION...BUT TIMING/LOCATION
DETAILS HAVE SOME DETAILS TO BE WORKED OUT IN THE COMING DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 21Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 21Z SUN AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 224 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
THIS AFTERNOON: VFR WITH JUST A FEW STRATOCU AROUND 4K FT. SE
WINDS 8-12 KTS. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
TONIGHT: VFR SKC. SE WINDS UNDER 10 KTS BECOME S. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
SUN THRU 18Z: VFR SKC. SSW WINDS INCREASE AND GUST UP TO 25 KTS
AFTER 15Z. CONFIDENCE: HIGH
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HALBLAUB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...ADP
AVIATION...HALBLAUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1232 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
INCREASE WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
PRETTY STABLE SITUATION EARLY THIS MORNING. WESTERN EDGE OF LOWER
CLOUDS THAT MOVED BACK WEST LAST EVENING LOCATED NEAR BAUDETTE TO
BEMIDJI TO PARK RAPIDS. THE WESTERN EDGE HASNT MOVED MUCH SINCE
06Z AND IN LINE WITH THE LATEST HRRR MODEL PROG. SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS IN THE RRV AND ERN ND KEEPING TEMPS QUITE MILD FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CIRRUS MOVING OVER TOP OF THE UPPER RIDGE
THRU THE AREA...THOUGH MORE SCATTERED AND THIN.
TODAY WILL BE A WARM DAY AND IT WILL BE WINDY. 925 MB WINDS PICK
UP TO 35 TO 40 KTS IN THE NRN VALLEY MIDDAY-AFTN. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CURRENT SFC PATTERN FAVORS HIGHEST WINDS TODAY IN THE NRN
VALLEY...CENTERED ON HALLOCK TO WINNIPEG. BASED ON HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS GIVEN BY GFS MOS AND LAV MOS GUIDANCE...ISSUED A WIND
ADVISORY 17Z-00Z FOR THE NRN RRV. WINDS ELSEWHERE LOOK TO HOLD
JUST SHY OF ADVISORY LEVELS. SOME CIRRUS AT TIMES TODAY BUT
OTHERWISE ONCE THE LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF IN THE FAR EAST....LOTS OF
SUN TODAY. WENT WITH A BIT WARMER GUIDANCE WHICH SHOWS 80-84 IN
RRV AND ERN ND.
WINDS TO HOLD UP TONIGHT AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT WHICH WILL ENTER
NW ND/SW MANITOBA OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST SUNDAY THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO ALONG
THE INTL BORDER AND INTO CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 2. SOME WEAK CAPE AND SHOWALTERS AROUND
ZERO AND SPC DAY 2 T-STORM OUTLOOK ALL LEAD TO MENTION OF ISOLD
THUNDER IN NW MN/NRN RRV SUN AFTN. OVERALL THOUGH A MINOR PRECIP
EVENT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR TO FOLLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD SOUTH. CONSENSUS FROM 00Z MODELS IS NOW TO
KEEP ALL PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH SETTLES
OVER THE AREA. THUS COORD WITH OTHER OFFICES LED TO REMOVAL OF ANY
POPS MON-MON NIGHT. MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAY WELL
BRING A FROST TO SOME AREAS AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY WELL BE
PRETTY COMMON IN NE ND/NW MN. LEFT OUT FROST WORDING FOR NOW AS SO
MANY VARIABLES AT PLAY YET.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS
GUSTING NEAR OR ABOVE 30 KTS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHEST RRV
WESTWARD...WITH WINDS REMAINING BREEZY TO GUSTY TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH KDVL SUNDAY MORNING...AND APPROACH
KGFK/KTVF/KFAR NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEAR TOO LOW TO MENTION.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-
024-026>030-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ001-004-007.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...WJB/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
605 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
INCREASING MID AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SE. THE
QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE HRRR SHOWS NO MEASURABLE PRECIP INTO THE CWA UNTIL
AT LEAST 06Z THEN A SURGE OF SCT LIGHT SHRA FOCUSED NNW UP THRU THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY DAYBREAK. THE RAP
LATEST RUN NOW SHOWS NOTHING MEASURABLE UNTIL ABOUT 12Z. NOT LOOKING
FOR MUCH BUT BELIEVE IT DESERVES A MENTION. MAV LOWS WERE A FEW
DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND WHILE OUR BIAS
GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP HAVE ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF SPRINKLES AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS LOW AND IF THEY DO OCCUR CONDITIONS WILL
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS SITES ON SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES
BUILDING A BIT AND COULD HOVER CLOSE TO 4 FEET THROUGH 03Z. SO AGAIN
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SINCE IT LOOKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LARGER WAVES FROM THE LONGER
FETCH OF THE WIND BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OVER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
305 PM EDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MOVE EAST OFF
THE COAST ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY. THE FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL ATLANTIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FOR THIS EVENING AND THE OVERNIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO POINT TO
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. THE QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH
PRECIP SURVIVES THE DOWNSLOPE OFF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS TIME
THERE IS AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS IN SRN OHIO AND ERN KY THAT
APPEAR TO BE REACHING THE GROUND BUT FOR THE MOST PART IT IS DRY.
THE HRRR ALSO SHOWS DRY CONDITIONS LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING
BEFORE ANY SHOWERS REACH THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. WILL BEGIN
THE EVENING DRY AND THEN BRING IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH
MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT WILL HAVE POPS INCREASE TO LOW CHANCE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE CENTRAL
LAKESHORE. NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH BUT BELIEVE IT DESERVES A MENTION.
MAV LOWS WERE A FEW DEGREES TOO LOW LAST NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUD
COVER AND WHILE OUR BIAS GUIDANCE SHOULD BE CATCHING UP WILL ADD
A DEGREE OR TWO TO LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
GUIDANCE ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR SUNDAY WITH THE NAM SHOWING
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM YNG TO ERI DOWN TO LOW CHANCE POPS WEST.
MEANWHILE THE MAV IS MORE CONSERVATIVE AND CONSISTENT WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIKELY AT MNN AND
FDY. DIFFERENCES PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL WITH
THE MET WETTER ON BALANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND THE MAV WETTER MONDAY.
THROUGH MONDAY WILL GO WITH THE SREF KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES
TO THE EAST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE SHOULD BE.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY EAST AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. MONDAY NIGHT MOISTURE
MOVES EAST SO WILL BACK OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE. TUESDAY MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND
THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THAT AND THE LEFTOVER MOISTURE. WILL HAVE
CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR TUESDAY AND ADD THUNDER FOR THE DAY. WILL
CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS LASTING INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...LOWERING POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. TEMPS CONTINUE FAIRLY
MILD.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
MORNING. IT LOOKS RATHER DRY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT BUT THE
COOLER AIR FLOWING ACROSS LAKE ERIE WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME CLOUD
COVER TO LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
THEN DOMINATE THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE
BEYOND THIS POINT WITH THE ECMWF STILL TRYING TO DIG AN UPPER LOW
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. INTERESTING HOW THIS SEEMS TO BOUNCE
BETWEEN MODEL RUNS. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR
NOW.
IT WILL BE COOLER THROUGH THE LONG TERM BUT IT WILL NOT BE ALL THAT
FAR FROM SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF SHOWERS TOWARD SUNRISE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN TAF SITES. THIS AREA OF SPRINKLES AND BRIEF SHOWERS WILL
THEN DRIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS LOW AND IF THEY DO OCCUR CONDITIONS WILL
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. EASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST LATER
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT
TIMES THIS INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND THEN AGAIN ACROSS THE
EASTERN TAFS SITES ON SUNDAY. GUSTS SHOULD NOT EXCEED 20 KNOTS.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING. NON VFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST INTO SUNDAY. IT WILL BE DRIFTING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WEAKENS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO DECREASE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. EASTERLY WINDS
THIS EVENING WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH WAVES
BUILDING A BIT AND COULD HOVER CLOSE TO 4 FEET THROUGH 03Z. SO AGAIN
IT IS VERY CLOSE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SINCE IT LOOKS
TO BE SHORT LIVED WE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
DIRECT THE LARGER WAVES TOWARD THE CANADIAN SHORELINE. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO
THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE BUT IT IS NOT ALL THAT
COLD. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME LARGER WAVES FROM THE LONGER
FETCH OF THE WIND BUT AT THIS POINT WIND SPEEDS DO NOT LOOK TO BE
MUCH OVER 15 KNOTS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MULLEN
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...MULLEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1058 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
LONG WAVE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY
AND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO SUN AS A DEEP WESTERN
NOAM TROUGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LEE SIDE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL PUSH EAST TONIGHT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH
THE BULK OF CAA WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE FA. NORTHERN STEAM TROUGH
AND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY IMPULSE MAY SUPPORT ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHRA SUNDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE...DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION.
TODAY...MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTS LL MOISTURE
NORTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
ALL PLACES WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE SD PLAINS. EXPECTED
SOUTHERN WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 AT
TIMES...ESP OVER CENTRAL SD. WARMER DAY FORECAST ALL
PLACES...WARMEST ON THE WY PLAINS WHERE PROXIMITY TO THE THERMAL
RIDGE AND DEEP MIXING ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT 90S.
TONIGHT...SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY
FLOW EXPECTED GIVEN ONGOING PRESSURE FALLS. DOWNSLOPING AND
RESULTANT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT WILL SUPPORT WARM CONDS IN THE LEE OF
THE BLACK HILLS...ESP THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
SUNDAY...SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SE SUNDAY WITH COOLER
CONDS EXPECTED ALL BUT SCENTRAL SD WHERE TIMING OF THE THE FRONT
WILL SUPPORT WARMER HIGHS THAN SAT. LINGERING LL MOISTURE/DIURNAL
HEATING AND DEVELOPING SOUTHERN HILLS EDDY CONVERGENCE MAY SUPPORT
AN AFTERNOON SHOWER/TS OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL BLACK HILLS...BUT
GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY PROGS AND LACK OF MODEL SUPPORT...HAVE LEFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON DRY THERE. A LITTLE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHRA ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE BULK OF LSA AND FGEN ARRIVE...COUPLED
WITH THE RR ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK. HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP A BIT IN LINE WITH MODEL TRENDS. MUCH COOLER TEMPS
EXPECTED SUN NIGHT...ESP WHERE RAIN AND RESULTANT WETBULBING
OCCURS.
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
WRLY UPPER FLOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL WEAK SHORT-WAVES ARE PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES AT THIS POINT APPEAR TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECM ARE STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE
TRACK AND TIMING OF WAVES. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A POTENTIALLY
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN PLAINS LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK. DROPPED MAX TEMPS QUITE A BIT MONDAY AS IT NOW LOOKS LIKE
DECENT COLD AIR ADVECTION MOVING INTO THE REGION EARLY MONDAY. A
WARMING TREND IS THEN EXPECTED TOWARD MIDWEEK AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
WORK WEEK AS CHANCES OF PRECIP INCREASE AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1056 AM MDT SAT SEP 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WRN/CNTRL SD PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH A COLD FRONT ENTERING NERN WY/NWRN SD AROUND 06Z.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR THE WRN SD PLAINS
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JC
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...BUNKERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
333 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF QUICKLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN OK/WEST TX REGION. THIS TROF HAS BROUGHT WITH IT
A COOL FRONT AS WELL AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING AND ARE CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DRIVEN MORE SO BY WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY ALOFT DUE TO STEEPENING LAPSE RATES CAUSED BY THE
OVERHEAD TROF. AIR COOLED RAIN IN ADDITION TO CLOUD COVER HAVE KEPT
THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS RATHER COOL WITH CHILDRESS SHOWING A
TEMP OF 71F AS OF 19Z. TEMPS IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE MUCH CLEARER
AND ARE AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO MID
80S. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY STALLED ALONG A LINE FROM DIMMITT TO
POST COMPLETELY DISSECTING THE CITY OF LUBBOCK. ONE OF THE MAIN
QUESTIONS WITH THE FRONT IS THE POSSIBILITY/DEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
GARZA COUNTY WHILE MOST STORMS HAVE STAYED JUST SOUTH OF THE FA.
SOME LIGHT ECHOES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP ON RADAR IN AND AROUND
THE LUBBOCK AREA...EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS DIMMITT...BUT HAVE YET TO DO
MORE THAN SPIT A DROP OR TWO OF RAIN. CU FIELD ON VIS IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INCREASE AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE RAP ARE SHOWING THIS WELL
AND...ALONG WITH THE HRRR...DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT BY
20Z. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTWARD BY
THE EARLY EVENING AS THE TROF PUSHES AWAY LEAVING THE BEST CHANCES
FOR RAIN ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
WINDS WILL TURN BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW AS LIGHT RIDGING
BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PREVENT ANY DECENT CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. TOMORROW AFTERNOON/S TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY/S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS
WHO SHOULD BE BACK INTO THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...
A DRY AND MILD FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
MEXICO VERY GRADUALLY EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WE/LL SEE A PERSISTENT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-
LEVEL WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY THOUGH WHICH SHOULD HELP
KEEP TEMPS FROM WARMING MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FOR LATE AUGUST...HIGHS
IN THE 80S SHOULD BE THE RULE. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION AND THIS MAY HELP PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S RANGE. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO
DIVERGE GREATLY BY NEXT WEEKEND...DUE TO THEIR DIFFERENCE IN
HANDLING OF THE FAIRLY VIGOROUS TROUGH AS IT EMERGES INTO THE
PLAINS...AS WELL AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE WEST. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A COLD FRONT COULD BE SENT INTO THE AREA OR THE
COLD AIR COULD REMAIN BOTTLED UP TO OUR NORTH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 53 82 56 84 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 58 83 57 84 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 59 83 57 85 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 58 85 58 85 / 20 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 59 84 60 86 / 20 10 0 0
DENVER CITY 58 85 57 85 / 20 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 59 85 59 86 / 20 10 0 0
CHILDRESS 64 87 63 89 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 86 61 87 / 20 10 0 0
ASPERMONT 64 89 63 89 / 30 10 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
51/33
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
326 PM CDT SAT SEP 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST. LINGERING ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL
KEEP THINGS QUIET. SURFACE/925 FLOW STARTS TO TURN FROM THE EAST
MORE TO SOUTH OR SE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. WEAK VORT AXIS SHIFTS NORTH
FROM IN/OH INTO LWR MI. LLVL RH PROGS SHOW MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE
FROM SE TO NW ACRS THE CWA ESP AFTER 6Z. THIS EVIDENT ON VSBL SATL
IMGRY ACRS SRN IL INTO IN AND OH WITH A NW DRIFT/EXPANSION OF THE
CLOUD SHIELD. THE NAM IS STILL A BIT FEISTY WITH FOG AND VRY LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EAST...ESP NEAR THE LAKE. GFS IS MUCH
DRIER. RAP AND NAM SOUNDINGS SHOWING SHALLOW SATURATION BY MID EVENING
...BRIEF ON THE RAP BUT LONGER ON THE NAM. DO HAVE FOG MENTIONED BUT
TIMING TRICKY ESP WITH CLOUD COVER ADVANCING FROM THE SE. MOS AND
SREF DO SHOW SPOTTY COVERAGE TO ANY DENSE POCKETS WITH OVERALL LESS
PROB OF DENSE THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE NEAR
THE LAKE MI SHORE WITH A MIDGE HIGHER DEW POINTS THERE IN THE U50S/L60S.
.SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH AN OVERALL SRLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE EASTERN HIGH AND COLD FRONT PUSHING EAST FROM THE DAKOTAS.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE LLVL MOISTURE PUSH NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER BUT FOR NOW
NOT SEEING THE FORCING OR DEPTH OF MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY THE 20-35 POPS
BEING GENERATED BY MOS. SO WILL KEEP DRY FCST IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER SOUTHERN WI SUNDAY
NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING ELEVATED WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE INVERSION SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOG. THE BIG QUESTION IS
WHETHER OR NOT SKIES WILL SCATTER/CLEAR OUT SUNDAY EVENING TO VIEW
THE LUNAR ECLIPSE. WITH LACK OF ANY UPWARD FORCING... I TRENDED THE
FORECAST TOWARD LOWER SKY COVER. SOUTH CENTRAL WI WILL HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE TO SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THAN SOUTHEAST WI.
SCATTERED SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WI ON
MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 70S. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODELS FOR A DRY
FORECAST IN THE MKX AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN WI MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE POST-FRONTAL
DUE TO A SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS WI WITHIN THE 850MB BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT LAGS JUST BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. MODELS HAVE COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING... BUT PRECIP AMOUNTS STILL DIFFER.
EXPECTING ONLY A BRIEF TIME PERIOD FOR SHOWERS... SO AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. INSTABILITY LOOKS VERY WEAK AND THE FRONT WILL
BE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT SO REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER.
HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH
EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR ADVECTION. LEANED TOWARD THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE DRY DURING THIS TIME
ALTHOUGH SMALL POPS LINGER IN THE FORECAST DUE TO A PREVIOUSLY
WETTER FORECAST. THEN AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT WI THU NIGHT INTO FRI WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS. THERE ARE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS OF THE MODELS LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND... BUT THERE IS NO GOOD SIGNAL FOR A DECENT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...INLAND CU FILED TO DISSIPATE DIURNALLY WITH
SHORELINE STRATUS DECK NORTH OF KMKE GRADUALLY ERODING. SREF CIG/VIS
PROB PROG SHOWS BETTER FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT ACROSS NW CWA WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE WITH WAVE RIDING NWWD FROM THE OH VLY. SOME MVFR
CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THIS ON SUNDAY. MET MOS/NAM SHOWING IFR CIG POTENTIAL
FOR SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH MOISTURE FIELDS MAY BE OVERDONE ON THE NAM.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE NEAR THE LAKE AS SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINTS
FOUND THERE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC