Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/23/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THE NIGHT. THAT WILL CHANGE A GREAT DEAL BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A PACIFIC LOW TO
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...21/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA
COAST...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E LOCATED AT 26.2 DEGS N;
113.6 DEGS W...OR ABOUT 135 MILES W OF LORETO MEXICO...AS OF 9 PM
MDT (8 PM MST). MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE NORTH AT 15 MPH...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
BASED ON THIS LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER...THE
DEPRESSION WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN
BE IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NORTH CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE AT MINUS 84 DEGS CELSIUS AS OF 03Z.
EARLIER THESE READINGS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND COVERED A LARGER
AREA...BUT STILL QUITE RESPECTABLE.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE TUESDAY...BUT STILL IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CATEGORY BEFORE FINALLY SHUTTING DOWN TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...CURRENTLY SEEING MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CURRENTLY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ENTER MY
FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES
BY AROUND 10Z THEN CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTH AND INTENSIFY...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF MY FORECAST AREA AFFECTED BY AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS BEFORE NOON. 00Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM SHOWED A
SIMILAR SOLUTION . THAT SAID...THE INHERITED POP FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH STORMS TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES FROM
TUCSON WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LESSER TOTALS FOR AREAS EAST (MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY) SINCE THOSE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM WHERE THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THAT SAID...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 5 PM TUESDAY.
AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE
UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 88
DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 95 DEGS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA AND THE FACT THAT CLOUDINESS AND EVENTUAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION...I WILL INCREASE LOW TEMPS A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR KOLS. INCREASING AND SPREADING AREA WIDE
MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF
TUCSON TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TROPICAL SYSTEMS...EVEN LESS WELL DEFINED ONES
LIKE THE CURRENT FEATURE ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA...TYPICALLY FOCUS ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES NEAR THE CORE AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS ARE SHOWING A VERY LARGE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF...AS WELL
AS THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 3
INCHES. I`M NOT SURE IF I`VE SEEN SUCH A LARGE AREA NEAR OR IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BEFORE.
THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...IS THAT THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN LINDA
EARLIER THIS MONTH IN EVEN MORE IMPORTANT WAYS. WE HAVE A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE ELONGATED EASTERN FLANK OF THE
POORLY DEFINED CENTER. H8 WINDS IN THE 35KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
PUSHING INTO PIMA COUNTY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING AS
THE REMNANT LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL
HAVE INTERACTION WITH A FAIRLY DECENT LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COAST THAT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DYNAMICS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SO WE HAVE WHAT MAY END UP BEING RECORD AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...AND WE HAVE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE...TO SAY THE
LEAST...VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESS.
CONSERVATIVE STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 INCH IN EASTERN AREAS...TO 2.5 INCHES IN WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE BEST AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS WELL AS THE SHEARING REMNANT
LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL COME
INTO PLAY BY MID DAY TUESDAY WITH DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A DEEP WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START TO DRY THINGS OUT
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
144 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARM FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO PRODUCING WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND LESS LIGHTNING THAN THIS MORNING. SLOW MOVING BANDS OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND IMPERIAL
COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS HAVE MOSTLY STAYED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND MAY NOT
MAKE IT INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY AFTERALL...AND SO SPRINKLES MAY BE ALL
THAT MOST OF THE COUNTY WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AREAS
FARTHER NORTH BEING FROM MOUNTAIN BASED CONVECTION. THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE
REGION...WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DUE
TO THE 150 TO 250 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...OR CIN...WHICH THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS. NEVERTHELESS...THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO SHOW
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GOING OFF OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE CORE OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE CORE OF THE
LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS CONFIDENCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS ORANGE
COUNTY...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. MODELS SHOW
LESS MOISTURE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE NAM12 SHOWS SOME VORTICITY LOBES
BEING DRAWN IN AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS...AND WESTERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...WHICH COULD INDUCE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THE 12Z LOCAL WRF AND 12Z CANSAC WRF HAVE BOTH PICKED UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED DUE TO THE DECREASING
FAVORABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
INDICATES. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS LOOK TO
RECEIVE THE MOST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...WITH LESS FOR AREAS NORTH. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO FAR
THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10-20 DEGREES LOWER. THIS COOLING IS DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND TRENDING ONSHORE FLOW. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN DAY-TIME HIGHS COULD FALL TO NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS...WHILE REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST WITH THE CONTINUED WARM WATERS.
ONE LAST INTERESTING TIDBIT ABOUT THE WEATHER TODAY ARE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LAND AREAS...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST TOMORROW
INDICATED BY THE 12Z WRF.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BENIGN DRY WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AT 500 MB TO BRING A WARMING TREND.
DAY-TIME HIGHS COULD REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BRING
SLOW COOLING TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
212030Z...TROPICAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REGION
WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
REGION THAT IS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN. THIS PRODUCED SCATTERED
STRATOCU OVER LAND WITH A SOLID MID LEVEL DECK. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHILE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL ALSO DRAW IN
ENERGY FROM THE EAST AND OUT OF ARIZONA...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH FROM PSP TO SAN.
THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS 09 TO 18Z TUESDAY. THE WAVE IS
EAST OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DRAW
SHOWERS WITH IT BUT LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PSP TO TRM
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
130 PM...ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE
RESULTED IN GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OVER WATERS. THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
WIND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES EAST AND ENTERS THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE WATERS AFTER 9
PM...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CARRIES THE
DETAILS...LAXMWSSGX. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
130 PM...THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO
WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER
HOUR...AND RECENT BURN SCARS COULD EXPERIENCE DEBRIS FLOWS.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING FOR SAN DIEGO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
423 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW
FOR A DRY SEASONABLE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 423 PM EDT...SUNSHINE WAS MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOWER 70S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...ONLY MID 60S CAPITAL REGION...60-65
MOST OTHER PLACES. A LIGHT NORTH WIND AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.
SHOWERS IN PENNSYLVANIA WHERE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NY STATE...BUT THUS FAR...HAS ENCOUNTERED VERY DRY
AIR. THE LATEST HRRR DOES BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
REGION THIS EVENING (REALLY SPRINKLES) BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY
ALL NIGHT...BUT SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
THE SHOWERS WERE THE RESULT OF DEFORMATION BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH. THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE LOOKS TO STAY WELL SOUTH AND THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR
EAST LATER TUESDAY.
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
THEREFORE...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NOR ANY FOG. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...LOWER TO MID 40S
MOST OTHER PLACES...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME
LIGHT (UNDER 5 MPH) AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT AS AN
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES BY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM.
LOOK FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 70-75 VALLEYS
...65-70 HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT...
GENERALLY LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF A DRY PERIOD FROM START TO FINISH...
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A LARGE AREA BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM NORTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK IT
WILL STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH
NO SYSTEMS NEARBY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS
BEING FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DIEING COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARD AREAS OF HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...BUT PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO NIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE THE FORMATION
OF FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE ALOFT A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION...LOOKING
AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD..12Z/TUESDAY.
A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SATURDAY: ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
IN THE PAST 8 DAYS. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
WAS OVER 300 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT...
LOWER OVER THE REMAINDER NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT...
A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF DEW. TONIGHT...WE WILL
HAVE A PARTIAL RECOVERY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP A LITTLE...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DEWPOINTS. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE MODERATE LEVELS (35-55 PERCENT)
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY (AROUND 5 MPH)...LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT ALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
STREAMFLOW LEVELS OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND COMPARED TO HISTORICAL NORMALS ARE GENERALLY NEAR
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS COMING IN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL. A FEW MORE SPOTS MAY BE COMING IN BELOW NORMAL BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH
A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH IN ITS WAKE. COULD
SEE ENOUGH FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY FAR W ZONES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY. SOME SIGNS IN
LATEST HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS THAT THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE NUDGED A
TAD FARTHER EAST...BUT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE SW THROUGHOUT HE NIGHT...AND LOW CLOUDS
BUILDING IN FROM SE TO NW FROM OFFSHORE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT NE-ENE FLOW OF 15-20KT CREATING A STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
EASTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT...AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK 700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AT BEST
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL THE DAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT FROM W TO E AS THE DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. FOR LOWS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PERSISTENT ENE-NE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LONGSHORE CURRENT TO
PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN FARTHER TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...HAVE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES FROM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND AS THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...AND A
DOWNSTREAM DIGGING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SUPPRESS AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AN ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE WEAK LOW OR
INVERTED TROUGH...THIS PER THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF...00Z ECMWF ENSMEAN
AND ALSO THE 12Z GEFS MEAN...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON THU...THEN WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON FRI. AFTER A STRONG
DIGGING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NE FRI NIGHT...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY AND BECOME DOMINANT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY DRY WEATHER ON
MON IS UNCERTAIN,,,ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND COASTAL
SECTIONS...AS BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN START TO BRING THE
LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH UP THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEG ABOVE AVG WED-FRI...MAINLY 75-80...THEN
WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO AVG THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
VFR INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
15-19KT...DIMINISHING BY A FEW KTS THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-FRI...VFR WITH CONTINUED NE-ENE FLOW. GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PERSISTENT NE-ENE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. COULD ALSO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON ALL WATERS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BRIEFLY RELAXES.
SCA CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON
THE OCEAN INTO WED. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...A RELATIVE
RESPITE IN SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...AND MAY LAST
INTO FRI EVENING...THOUGH COULD BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY SETS OF
HIGHER SWELLS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
RETURN ON THE OCEAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY KBDI VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 300 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE REGION...AND OVER 400 ALONG THE COAST. NE WINDS GUSTING 15-20 MPH
WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID 40S TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THERE
COULD BE SOME RISK OF FIRE SPREAD...IF ANY WERE TO BE IGNITED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT...THEN DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT E TO W SWEEP OF 3 TO 6 FT BREAKERS AND ELEVATED
TIDES WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION THIS WEEK ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
A LOW THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXISTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY RISING
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING OF EASTERLY
FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT/GOODMAN
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SAT-MON...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH GENERATES A CUT-OFF LOW IN
THE MID LEVELS THIS WEEKEND OVER THE ARKLATEX (GFS) OR SOUTH TX
(ECMWF). IN THE LOW LEVELS...NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIP WATER
VALUES WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED (40-50 PERCENT) RAIN CHANCES THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS LOOKS ESP WET SUN-MON AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL IMPULSES
EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CARIB/SE GULF WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THIS
UPPER SUPPORT FARTHER WEST OVER THE GULF. BOTH MODELS SHOW SOME SFC
LOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE YUCATAN SUNDAY LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF MONDAY. IT LOOKS TO BE A SEMI
BAROCLINIC SYSTEM BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH HOW FUTURE MODEL
RUNS HANDLE THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDS. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES LIMITED TO AREAS TOWARD
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTH OF ORLANDO INTO EARLY EVENING...CONTINUING
ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY TONIGHT WITH A MORE MOISTURE/STRONGER ONSHORE
FLOW HERE.
&&
.MARINE...THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE CAROLINA
COAST WILL SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE ENCOMPASSES THE EASTERN CONUS. NNE/NE FLOW WILL BACK TO NW
OVERNIGHT WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KTS. SEAS WILL BUILD
FROM INCREASING WINDS/NE FETCH UP TO 4-5 FEET MAINLY OVER THE
VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS THRU TONIGHT AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE (SOUTHWARD).
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...BEYOND 20 NM OF SHORE CAPE
CANAVERAL NORTH
WED-SAT...BOTH ECM AND GFS SHOWS LOW LEVEL TROF FILLS AS IT WORKS
ITS WAY WEST AND MOST SUBSTANTIAL PRES GRAD REMAINS NORTH OF FCST
AREA ACROSS NE FL COAST IN PROXIMITY TO RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS. A MODERATE N/NE SWELL SHOULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE
WATERS WITH SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. MAY NEED A
CAUTION FOR SEAS WELL OFFSHORE WED-THU.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY /GENF1/ LINGERS
NEAR 6.2 FT...WHICH IS 0.3 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE (6.5 FT). THE
RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN TO JUST BELOW THIS LEVEL THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK.
THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR /ASTF1/ CONTINUES TO REMAIN NEAR 2.4
FT...VERY CLOSE TO THE ACTION STAGE OF 2.5 FEET. THE RIVER LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS WEEK JUST BELOW ACTION
STAGE. HOWEVER IF DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES IMPEDED AN INCREASE TO
ACTION STAGE MAY OCCUR. A HYDROLOGIC STATEMENT /RVSMLB/ MAY BE
ISSUED IF THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 85 72 84 / 20 30 30 40
MCO 73 89 73 88 / 10 30 20 40
MLB 72 87 73 86 / 10 30 20 30
VRB 70 86 71 86 / 10 30 20 40
LEE 72 88 72 87 / 10 30 30 50
SFB 72 88 72 87 / 10 30 30 40
ORL 73 88 74 88 / 10 30 30 40
FPR 69 86 70 86 / 10 30 20 50
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...CRISTALDI
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THEM COULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THEY CAN BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. THE SHORT
RANGE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE MOST CONVECTION
FORECAST TO WIND DOWN AROUND O1Z, HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT
IT COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
NEAR TERM ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING, BESIDES MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE INLAND.
BUT, ISOLATED STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, KEPT THE VCTS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM SUNDAY
AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH
ITS TRAILING TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH FL/FL STRAITS THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. WITH THE DRY MID LEVEL AND WEAK
CAP...EXPECT ANOTHER SLOW START TO ACTIVITY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
TREND INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...AROUND 50%...SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY OVER THE EVERGLADES
TOWARDS SUNSET.
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S AROUND THE LAKE AND
LOW 70S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WHICH IS SLIGHTLY...BUT LIKELY
NOTICEABLY...LOWER THAN THE USUAL MID-UPPER 70S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE FL PENINSULA REMAINS IN LIGHT LOW
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND LINGERING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE
LOW AND LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IN MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE. AS WITH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A SUBTLE RELIEF TO THE USUAL S FLORIDA HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST MID TO
LATE WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN US CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CUT OFF LOW WITH
THE GFS BACK ON BOARD WITH A MORE ROBUST RETROGRADING CUT OFF LOW
THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE.
TRENDS FROM BOTH MODELS STILL SUGGEST A WETTER AND STORMIER PATTERN
IN PLACE BY LATE WEEK WITH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AS WELL A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN SOME BETTER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOW MUCH WE GET CONTINUES TO VARY...BUT
WILL KEEP INCREASING POP TREND THURS-SAT.
MARINE...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH MID WEEK
BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS LATE WEEK. GULF COAST BREEZE
EXPECTED MOST DAYS...WHICH WILL BRING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SEAS GENERALLY 2FT OR LESS THROUGH WED...WITH UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF
STREAM AT TIMES WITH THE NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
THE ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK WITH INCOMING SWELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 88 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 88 76 88 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI 77 89 76 89 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 75 90 72 88 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
953 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
INLAND WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE REGIME WILL CHANGE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AFTER 3-4
AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS A ROUGE SHOWER MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
BEACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE BEACHES.
THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WILL OCCUR AT 421 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE AN ENTRENCHED COLD AIR DAMMING
REGIME PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE SC COAST
WILL MEANDER TO THE WEST...BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO
COASTAL SECTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOWER 80S AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. THUS...DESPITE
INCREASING ONSHORE MOISTURE...THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
A RELATIVELY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER WESTERN FLORIDA AND A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS
AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE COAST
ON THURSDAY...SPREADING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO
SOUTHERN SC DURING THE DAY. PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE THE UPPER 70S.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES INDICATE POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
SO WE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE
MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP COVERAGE MAY DECREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW DISSIPATES AND THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
RATHER WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN ALOFT AS THE MID TO LATE WEEK BROAD
UPPER LOW DISSIPATES COMPLETELY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST AS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ISN/T
PARTICULARLY HIGH...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND IS DOWNWARD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE...FAVORING THE COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING THAT MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL ROUGHLY 10-14Z. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO IFR THRESHOLDS ATTM. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE.
KSAV...THE LATEST MODEL SETS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE ABOUT 40-45 PERCENT FOR MVFR CIGS
TO REACH THE TERMINAL 10-14Z. THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
INDICATIONS OF CIGS BELOW 3 KFT ATTM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THESE INCREASED CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
N/NE WINDS AND SEAS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 6-7 FT
JUSTIFY A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR AMZ350 AND
AMZ374. ELSEWHERE...CAPPED WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STARTING ON WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL MOVE BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BECOME ENHANCED. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL
THE WATERS AT SOME POINT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THEREAFTER AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...THOUGH SPEEDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15 KT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDES APPROACHING. WITH THE
EXPECTED EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND LONG
FETCH...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL START APPROACHING COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME 9 SEC SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCE CREATES A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
WED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Another quiet but cool night across central and southeast Illinois
as high pressure remains in control of the local weather. Light
winds, mostly clear skies, and a dry airmass should allow
overnight temperatures to fall into the 40s again in many areas.
Only plan minor tweaks to the hourly nighttime grids for the
latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the
ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into
Missouri. A small shortwave on sat imagery to the northwest
forecast in the HRRR to pass to the north this evening. Dominant
high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night.
Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not much to discuss in
terms of weather, but will mention the potential for very patchy
light fog/vis drops. However, leaving it out of the grids as the
afternoon dewpoints are dropping several degrees as the llvls mix
out in the day time heating.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Seeing a consistent signal in the 12z models for a dry week in the
extended forecast across central and southeast IL.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest
across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half
of this week. The southwest end of the surface ridge looks to remain
across central and southern Illinois during that time, keeping
seasonable and dry conditions across our forecast area.
A cold front will approach NW Illinois on Tuesday, reaching eastern
Iowa by 00z Wed/7pm Tues. The front is projected to stall out in
that general area for the rest of the week, as a ridge remains
entrenched across the eastern states due to the blocking effects
of a low pressure system off the central East Coast.
The end result will be some increase in cloud cover for our areas
west of I-55 for the last half of the week, but plenty of dry air
above and below the cloud layer will keep precip at bay.
Low pressure progressing from the SW states will move northeast
along the front later this week, reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into Friday. That will bring another period
of increased cloud cover for our western counties, but no rain.
That low is expected to dissipate on Friday as it passes by to the
north of IL, with expanding high pressure across Illinois in it`s
wake. That will keep dry conditions in the forecast through next
weekend.
As for temperatures this week, the chilly air will remain across our
area into Tuesday. However, southerly flow will develop ahead of the
approaching cold front, bring warmer air to our area the rest of the
week. Highs will reach back into the lower 80s from Wednesday to
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. VFR
conditions will prevail, with generally light winds and minimal
cloud cover.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
520 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SERIES OF H7/H5 UPPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH A MEAN SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEAREST UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF SW KANSAS. PWATS AS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS
ARE NEARING 1.4-1.5 SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG I-70 IN COLORADO. THIS
STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH INTO SW AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
HIGHER CINH HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING (SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ALONG/EAST OF CO/KS
STATE LINE. A SECOND UPPER LOW/STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AROUND 06-09Z.
BEST INSTABILITY QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CONTINUOUS SOUTH TO NORTH BUILDING/TRAINING
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SLOWS DOWN OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ALLOWING FOR MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
LINGER EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
POSSIBLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST...SO LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS MAY REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I SHOWED A DECREASING
TREND IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY
AS CLEARING/WAA IN THE WEST COULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS EAST OF FRONTAL
ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSLATES TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THEN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE NAM. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE SREF WAS DOING THE BEST ON
THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE NAM/CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS/SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JET IS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE CLOSED OFF PORTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH VERY SLOWLY WITH THE TROUGH LINE NEAR THE
EASTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST...THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN END.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
PROBLEMATIC DURING THIS TIME. EASTWARD PROGRESSION STOPS DURING THE
DAY WITH IT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. AGAIN DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE
EAST...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. VERY
HARD TO TIME THESE OUT WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES VERY LOW AND
THE TQ INDEX SUPPORTIVE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS. SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING. SO AT THIS TIME KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
THE MORNING. AM THINKING MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DUE TO THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER LOWERED THE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE IN
THERE.
UPPER LOW THEN STARTS BACKING UP TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS PUTS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND TO OCCUR. FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
SHOULD MAKE IT EASY FOR WHATEVER LIFT THERE IS TO START THE
PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO SHOW LIGHT QPF CONTINUING.
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENESIS
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN
COLD POOL REMAINS ON TOP OF US WITH THE NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE AND THE TQ INDEX SUPPORT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER
AM NOT SURE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOTALLY CATCHING HIS UNUSUAL
SCENARIO. SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SINKING ON TOP OF US...MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
THE CLOUD COVER...COOLED THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FROM WHERE
THEY WERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER ABOUT A DAY INTO THIS PERIOD
THE MODELS...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES...START DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IN FACT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THIS IS LOW.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN WOULD BELIEVE THAT THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE BIG
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE CANADIAN ARE MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE CANADIAN ACTUALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLUTION
FIELD.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WPC MANUAL PROGS TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND
SIDE IN THAT DIRECTION. SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT...WHICH IS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GAVE. SO MADE NO CHANGES OVERALL TO WHAT I WAS GIVEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND KMCK THIS EVENING AS
CLOUDS INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
AREA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIER SHOWERS THAT MOVE INTO THE AREA AROUND 06Z. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN AS SHOWERS DECREASE TOWARD 12Z WEDNESDAY.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
915 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level
ridge of high pressure lifting northeast across the Desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, the remnants of a tropical depression are
lifting northeast into southeastern Arizona and southwestern New
Mexico. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is situated
across extreme southeast Colorado with an associated trough axis
extending southward into the Oklahoma panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
The global models are coming into slightly better agreement
regarding the mid-week increase in precipitation chances. The ECMWF
model is still the most developed, maintaining the most coherent mid
level potential vorticity anomaly as the subtropical low meanders
into western Kansas by Wednesday Night. The Canadian GEM is next in
line and follows closer the ECMWF solution than does the GFS. As a
result, the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF solutions offer the best
scenario for sustained precipitation chances from early to midday
Wednesday lasting into Thursday Night. There will likely be several
rounds with a few breaks within the smaller scale episodes of
precipitation. This does not look like a situation where severe
weather will be much of a risk. Deep subtropical moisture and the
lack of lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will both be negatives
as far as severe weather potential is concerned... both limiting
CAPE. As far as temperatures go, the daytime temperatures will be
trending downward from previous forecast, and do not be surprised to
see further decrease in forecast highs, especially Thursday. The
ECMWF is quite cool on Thursday keeping all of western Kansas in the
60s. We will see if the Canadian GEM and the GFS follow suit in
future runs. The subtropical disturbance will continue to wallow
aimlessly across the western Kansas until it spins itself out...as
the main polar jet will be way off to the north in Canada.
Pronounced lower tropospheric warming will be confined to areas
north of the Central High Plains it would appear, as the subtropical
entity nearby will keep temperatures in check given the absence of
any downslope momentum over western Kansas amidst a fairly deep,
moist troposphere.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Quite a poor job by the HRRR model this morning in forecasting far
too widespread and too low of visibilities across the area. The
stratus development and surface winds being slightly too strong
keeping mixing up may have had a part in dense fog not becoming
widespread. Rather than carrying FG in prevailing groups, we`ve
mentioned in in TEMPO groups only this am and will monitor for
updates. The rest of the morning will be trying to capture the
trend of dissipation of the IFR stratus as the models have not been
great.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 91 63 93 64 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 93 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 40
LBL 93 65 93 65 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 84 63 93 66 / 0 0 0 20
P28 85 65 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
The global models are coming into slightly better agreement
regarding the mid-week increase in precipitation chances. The ECMWF
model is still the most developed, maintaining the most coherent mid
level potential vorticity anomaly as the subtropical low meanders
into western Kansas by Wednesday Night. The Canadian GEM is next in
line and follows closer the ECMWF solution than does the GFS. As a
result, the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF solutions offer the best
scenario for sustained precipitation chances from early to midday
Wednesday lasting into Thursday Night. There will likely be several
rounds with a few breaks within the smaller scale episodes of
precipitation. This does not look like a situation where severe
weather will be much of a risk. Deep subtropical moisture and the
lack of lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will both be negatives
as far as severe weather potential is concerned... both limiting
CAPE. As far as temperatures go, the daytime temperatures will be
trending downward from previous forecast, and do not be surprised to
see further decrease in forecast highs, especially Thursday. The
ECMWF is quite cool on Thursday keeping all of western Kansas in the
60s. We will see if the Canadian GEM and the GFS follow suit in
future runs. The subtropical disturbance will continue to wallow
aimlessly across the western Kansas until it spins itself out...as
the main polar jet will be way off to the north in Canada.
Pronounced lower tropospheric warming will be confined to areas
north of the Central High Plains it would appear, as the subtropical
entity nearby will keep temperatures in check given the absence of
any downslope momentum over western Kansas amidst a fairly deep,
moist troposphere.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Quite a poor job by the HRRR model this morning in forecasting far
too widespread and too low of visibilities across the area. The
stratus development and surface winds being slightly too strong
keeping mixing up may have had a part in dense fog not becoming
widespread. Rather than carrying FG in prevailing groups, we`ve
mentioned in in TEMPO groups only this am and will monitor for
updates. The rest of the morning will be trying to capture the
trend of dissipation of the IFR stratus as the models have not been
great.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 64 91 65 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 89 63 92 64 / 0 0 20 30
EHA 93 65 90 64 / 0 0 30 40
LBL 91 65 92 65 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 81 63 92 66 / 0 0 10 20
P28 85 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
358 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
The global models are coming into slightly better agreement
regarding the mid-week increase in precipitation chances. The ECMWF
model is still the most developed, maintaining the most coherent mid
level potential vorticity anomaly as the subtropical low meanders
into western Kansas by Wednesday Night. The Canadian GEM is next in
line and follows closer the ECMWF solution than does the GFS. As a
result, the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF solutions offer the best
scenario for sustained precipitation chances from early to midday
Wednesday lasting into Thursday Night. There will likely be several
rounds with a few breaks within the smaller scale episodes of
precipitation. This does not look like a situation where severe
weather will be much of a risk. Deep subtropical moisture and the
lack of lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will both be negatives
as far as severe weather potential is concerned... both limiting
CAPE. As far as temperatures go, the daytime temperatures will be
trending downward from previous forecast, and do not be surprised to
see further decrease in forecast highs, especially Thursday. The
ECMWF is quite cool on Thursday keeping all of western Kansas in the
60s. We will see if the Canadian GEM and the GFS follow suit in
future runs. The subtropical disturbance will continue to wallow
aimlessly across the western Kansas until it spins itself out...as
the main polar jet will be way off to the north in Canada.
Pronounced lower tropospheric warming will be confined to areas
north of the Central High Plains it would appear, as the subtropical
entity nearby will keep temperatures in check given the absence of
any downslope momentum over western Kansas amidst a fairly deep,
moist troposphere.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Dense fog is likely to cause some aviation problems this morning.
The best time frame for dense fog will be 10-14z, or a 4-5 hour
window as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to move in on
southeast winds. There is pretty high confidence in the fog forecast
with pretty aggressive visibility restriction including run-to-run
continuity from the HRRR model as well as the WRF-ARW, WRF-NNMB, and
NAM12 solutions. IFR category will probably continue through midday
(17z or so) especially up around HYS where it may even persist into
the afternoon hours. There should be a fairly rapid clearing once
the low stratus does start to scatter out. No wind shifts are
forecast during this TAF period with south to southeast winds
continuing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 64 91 65 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 89 63 92 64 / 0 0 20 30
EHA 93 65 90 64 / 0 0 30 40
LBL 91 65 92 65 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 81 63 92 66 / 0 0 10 20
P28 85 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...Updated Aviation and Short Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium
range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of
high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
Although a prevailing southerly flow will draw some moisture back
north into the area, a lack of significant instability combined
with a persistent weak flow aloft will limit any precip chances
through Tuesday night. However, precip chances will return
to western Kansas Wednesday as an upper level trough of low
pressure is projected to lift northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains while accompanied by a
feed of tropical moisture. Although less than robust, the flow
aloft is expected to strengthen somewhat while a developing
surface low lee of the Rockies continues to enhance a southerly
flow across western Kansas. This will occur ahead of a zone of
increasing surface convergence associated with the lee side
trough axis. Chances for precip will linger into Thursday as
the upper level shortwave is slow to lift further to the
northeast.
Little change is expected to the general air mass across western
Kansas Monday into Tuesday, so look for highs to reach the lower
to mid 90s(F) again Tuesday afternoon. Although the southerly
flow will persist through Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
precip will likely keep high temperatures down a bit Wednesday
afternoon. Same can be said for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Dense fog is likely to cause some aviation problems this morning.
The best time frame for dense fog will be 10-14z, or a 4-5 hour
window as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to move in on
southeast winds. There is pretty high confidence in the fog forecast
with pretty aggressive visibility restriction including run-to-run
continuity from the HRRR model as well as the WRF-ARW, WRF-NNMB, and
NAM12 solutions. IFR category will probably continue through midday
(17z or so) especially up around HYS where it may even persist into
the afternoon hours. There should be a fairly rapid clearing once
the low stratus does start to scatter out. No wind shifts are
forecast during this TAF period with south to southeast winds
continuing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 92 65 87 / 0 0 10 40
GCK 63 93 64 87 / 0 0 20 40
EHA 64 91 64 86 / 0 10 20 30
LBL 64 93 65 88 / 0 0 20 40
HYS 64 93 66 89 / 0 0 20 40
P28 65 93 67 89 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1110 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY AND THE BLUEGRASS
REGION AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION WERE RUNNING A
BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NW PART OF
THE CWA...WHILE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE
FINE TUNED AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOME PATCHY DENSE
VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR BORDER.
NOTHING HAS POPPED UP ON RADAR SO FAR...THOUGH...AND THE CU FIELD
IS RATHER SPARSE. AMPLE SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE CU ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE REPORTS NOTED. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S SEEN IN
THE EAST. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BENIGN
PATTERN CONSISTING OF FAST FLOW NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
AND GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SMATTERING OF ENERGY EAST OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION.
EVEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS SUCH...PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO WIN THE
DAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS
FOR WX SPECIFICS IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME IN THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO VALUES JUST ABOVE
LAST NIGHT/S LOWS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES TOWARD DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND
LAKES. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS AGAIN A NOTCH MILDER BUT WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
LATE NIGHT FOG.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL
GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES TO BETTER CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF AN
INVERSION ON OUR TERRAIN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS.
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS WELL. THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE TROPICAL LOWS
MEANDERING NORTHERLY OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL FAVOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY AROUND 5Z. IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE. THIS WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 8Z AND 14Z SIMILAR TO TUE AM. OTHERWISE...SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND AGAIN DISSIPATE
AROUND 22Z. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
823 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOME PATCHY DENSE
VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR BORDER.
NOTHING HAS POPPED UP ON RADAR SO FAR...THOUGH...AND THE CU FIELD
IS RATHER SPARSE. AMPLE SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE CU ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE REPORTS NOTED. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S SEEN IN
THE EAST. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BENIGN
PATTERN CONSISTING OF FAST FLOW NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
AND GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SMATTERING OF ENERGY EAST OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION.
EVEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS SUCH...PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO WIN THE
DAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS
FOR WX SPECIFICS IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME IN THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO VALUES JUST ABOVE
LAST NIGHT/S LOWS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES TOWARD DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND
LAKES. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS AGAIN A NOTCH MILDER BUT WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
LATE NIGHT FOG.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL
GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES TO BETTER CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF AN
INVERSION ON OUR TERRAIN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS.
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS WELL. THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE TROPICAL LOWS
MEANDERING NORTHERLY OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 823 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS...WILL FAVOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING BY AROUND 5Z. IN SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS
WILL BE LOCALLY DENSE. THIS WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 8Z AND 14Z SIMILAR TO TUE AM. OTHERWISE...SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CU SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AROUND 16Z AND AGAIN DISSIPATE
AROUND 22Z. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KT OR LESS...GENERALLY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
149 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST HI
RES MODELS. HRRR IS BACKING OFF ON SHOWERS MAKING INTO OUR FAR
EAST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL OPTING TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR PIKE/HARLAN/LETCHER COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION LAST
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY
BEGAN TO CARRY IN DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WINDS EVENTUALLY VEERING TOWARD THE NE...THE DRIER
AIR HAS HAD TROUBLE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO OUR AREA. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ALL DAY NEAR THE BORDER WITH TN AND VA. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEARBY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A RESURGENCE OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE TO THE
EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD CLIP THE EASTERN TIP OF
KY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF INHIBITION FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AND TO RISE ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...IN THE WEST SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY AND MORNING LOWS A BIT COOLER AND HIGHS ON MONDAY A BIT
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE EAST. THE EFFECTS OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA WIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE
CONUS. THE JET REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME...A CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MEANDERS JUST
OFF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH AGAIN AND
POTENTIALLY BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH QUITE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SURFACE FORCING FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WITH
THE ASSIST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST. IN FACT...WILL TREND
BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES SEEM TO TREND DRIER AND AS IS THE
TIME OF THE YEAR AS WELL. SO WENT BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES AND THIS
WAS AGREED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS ALSO SHOWING A VERY DEFINED BACK
EDGE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SE ACROSS KY. AS SUCH...IT SHOULD POSE VERY LITTLE IMPACT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOT GOING TO RULE SOME MVFR CLOUDS
SHIFTING BACK INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSJS.
ANY FOG WHICH FORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE VALLEYS...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY IMPACTS FOR THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. FOR TOMORROW...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPPER MVFR TO LOWER END VFR
RANGE. CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE THICKEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...WHERE SOME BKN MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE AT
TIMES ACROSS KSJS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
116 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL REDEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ANTICIPATED. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TO HIGH END CHANCE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A GOOD 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THE DAY BY
A FEW DEGREES ON AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 32
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW A GRADIENT FROM 100 PERCENT NORTH TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO BLEND WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING...SO TAPER TRENDS BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BY WED EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A
LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER. A
NEW SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOMENT AND WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY MAKE THINGS FEEL NICE OR
COOL TO SOME. DEEP MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK WITH
IT. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GULF BY
NEXT WEEK SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC FRONT SETS
UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA WERE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED BUT ALL WERE STILL OUT OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA. /CAB/
MARINE...THE WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND
HAS ALREADY APPROACHED THE MS COAST AND SHOULD ENTER ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE
AND COULD RANGE FROM 10-13KTS AT TIMES BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT
QUICKLY BASICALLY LEAVING THE AREA B/T BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN
GULF AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERSIST MODERATE ERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MDLS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
&&
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 65 88 65 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 86 68 90 67 / 50 10 0 0
ASD 84 68 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
MSY 85 72 88 73 / 30 20 0 0
GPT 83 69 89 71 / 60 20 0 0
PQL 84 67 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1055 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TO HIGH END CHANCE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A GOOD 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THE DAY BY
A FEW DEGREES ON AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW A GRADIENT FROM 100 PERCENT NORTH TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO BLEND WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING...SO TAPER TRENDS BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BY WED EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A
LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER. A
NEW SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOMENT AND WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY MAKE THIGS FEEL NICE OR COOL
TO SOME. DEEP MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK WITH IT.
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GULF BY NEXT
WEEK SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC FRONT SETS UP
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA WERE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED BUT ALL WERE STILL OUT OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA. /CAB/
MARINE...THE WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND
HAS ALREADY APPROACHED THE MS COAST AND SHOULD ENTER ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE
AND COULD RANGE FROM 10-13KTS AT TIMES BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT
QUICKLY BASICALLY LEAVING THE AREA B/T BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN
GULF AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERSIST MODERATE ERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MDLS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 65 88 65 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 86 68 90 67 / 50 10 0 0
ASD 84 68 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
MSY 85 72 88 73 / 30 20 0 0
GPT 83 69 89 71 / 60 20 0 0
PQL 84 67 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
912 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW A GRADIENT FROM 100 PERCENT NORTH TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO BLEND WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING...SO TAPER TRENDS BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BY WED EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A
LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER. A
NEW SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOMENT AND WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY MAKE THIGS FEEL NICE OR COOL
TO SOME. DEEP MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK WITH IT.
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GULF BY NEXT
WEEK SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC FRONT SETS UP
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA WERE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED BUT ALL WERE STILL OUT OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA. /CAB/
MARINE...THE WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND
HAS ALREADY APPROACHED THE MS COAST AND SHOULD ENTER ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE
AND COULD RANGE FROM 10-13KTS AT TIMES BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT
QUICKLY BASICALLY LEAVING THE AREA B/T BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN
GULF AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERSIST MODERATE ERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MDLS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 65 88 65 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 88 68 90 67 / 40 10 0 0
ASD 85 68 89 70 / 30 20 0 0
MSY 85 72 88 73 / 30 20 0 0
GPT 84 69 89 71 / 30 20 0 0
PQL 83 67 89 70 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
706 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS CLOUDINESS TONIGHT POSSIBLE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY.
AT 1 PM...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN IOWA...AND NEBRASKA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT
CLOCKWISE AND SPREAD ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF
WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH LESS IMPACT OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOCAL WINDS FROM THE
EAST...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN. THERE IS EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS...SO FORECAST CERTAINTY IS
GOOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHEN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP.
DRY WEATHER WITH 500MB RIDGING LOOKS TO BE A SOLID FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGING...WHILE
THE ECMWF DRIVES A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON MONDAY...THE
ECMWF SWINGS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE AS THE GFS
CONTINUES THE RIDGING. BIG DIFFERENCES ARE IN PLAY BY
TUESDAY...WHERE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS A TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. THE GFS ON TUESDAY IS THE OPPOSITE.
BASED ON THE POOR CONTINUITY DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WAIT FOR MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE FLIPPING THE
FORECAST COOLER AND WETTER FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S EACH
DAY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE SLIDES A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
MODEL VARIABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH LEVEL VFR CLOUDS WILL SPREAD IN LATER TONIGHT AND REMAIN
ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL ACT TO SOMEWHAT LIMIT
THE FOG POTENTIAL. SO AT THIS TIME I DID NOT INCLUDE ANY FOG IN
THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LUDINGTON BUOY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY OVER-PERFORMING AROUND 3 FEET THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIG SABLE POINT AND LUDINGTON SITES HAVE BEEN
REPORTING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH WHICH MAY BE AIDING
THE WAVE GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR
OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE.
EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
A LAND BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO DIMINISH. AFTER
THIS...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VSBY AND HAVE A MENTION OF
VCSH AT IWD AND CMX TO COVER THIS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD MINIMIZE LLWS POTENTIAL WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXCEPT AT SAW WHERE PUT IN LLWS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL TUE MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS
MOVE ACROSS WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND AS A LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TUE MORNING WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
A DRY SSW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NE STATES WILL BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL
OF A FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA LATE TONIGHT BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VSBY. A THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TOO MENTION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE LLWS POTENTIAL WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND AS A LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TUE MORNING WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
A DRY SSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NE STATES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EARLY THIS MRNG DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT
SOME LLWS TO IMPACT IWD...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARPER AND
THE LLJ STRONGER AT THE BASE OF THE RADIATION INVRN. AT CMX AND
SAW...THE LLWS POTENTIAL SEEMS MORE MARGINAL...SO LEFT OUT OF THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS BY MID/LATE MRNG. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT WL
SHARPEN EVEN MORE THIS EVNG AS A COLD FNT APRCHS FM THE W...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND AS A LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TUE MORNING WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
A DRY SSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NE STATES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EARLY THIS MRNG DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT
SOME LLWS TO IMPACT IWD...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARPER AND
THE LLJ STRONGER AT THE BASE OF THE RADIATION INVRN. AT CMX AND
SAW...THE LLWS POTENTIAL SEEMS MORE MARGINAL...SO LEFT OUT OF THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS BY MID/LATE MRNG. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT WL
SHARPEN EVEN MORE THIS EVNG AS A COLD FNT APRCHS FM THE W...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE A LOW OVER
MANITOBA MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS AND DEEPENS ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH WINDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT OF 20-25KTS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ST LOUIS MO
936 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Area of showers and thunderstorms currently over western Iowa and
northwest Missouri will stay west of the area tonight as latest
runs of the RAP and HRRR are showing forcing and instability will
remain nearly stationary overnight. Otherwise going forecast looks
good and have made only minor changes for debris cloudiness
coming off the convection to our west. Overnight lows still look
reasonable.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Look for quiet weather tonight with occasional clouds and
overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Quiet fall weather conditions are expected through at least the
end of the week and possibly through the weekend. Expect
temperatures to be around 5-8 degrees above average during each
forecast period with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. There are no strong signals for widespread
rainfall over the next 5 days.
A series of vort maxes was noted across the southwestern CONUS on
early afternoon water vapor imagery. These features will lift
into the central plains tonight and tomorrow, then linger in
place or perhaps even retrograde through the end of the week due
to weak steering flow aloft near the axis of a building upper
ridge. These features are currently forecast to remain west of
the CWA with little effect other than increased mid/high
cloudiness at times, although iso-sct SH/TS would be possible if
these features progress farther east than currently expected.
Forecast uncertainty increases by late this weekend into early
next week. There is poor run-to-run continuity between recent GFS
runs regarding a low pressure system moving through either Canada
(06z run) or the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS (12z run)
which then acts to break down the upper ridge. There is also poor
agreement between the GFS and ECMWF due to differences in each
model`s handling of a developing ridge over the western CONUS and
how that ridge affects the approaching low pressure system. This
low pressure system and its associated cold front could bring a
chance of rain showers to the area during the early or middle
part of next week, but confidence is too low to raise PoPs attm
due to the aforementioned model disagreements.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 526 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Surface ridge extends from MI southwest into southeastern MO.
E-sely surface winds will continue through the period, light
tonight and only increasing to around 7 kts late Wednesday morning
and afternoon. Mainly just some high level cloudiness through the
forecast period. There may be a brief period of light fog in SUS
and CPS late tonight/early Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Just some high level cloudiness through the
forecast period. Light e-sely surface wind tonight will increase
to around 7 kts Wednesday afternoon, then become light again
Wednesday night.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
834 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED THIS EVENING. A SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
AND A SECOND SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO OUR FAR
NORTH/NORTHWEST COUNTIES...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOOLEY
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR WED AND THU...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OUR
WEATHER. SHOULD SEE HIGHS BACK TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S TOMORROW
THEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THAT ON THURSDAY. ALSO...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL NOT BE SO GUSTY IN OUR EAST TOMORROW AS SFC HIGH IN THE
DAKOTAS LIFTS INTO CANADA REDUCING THE GRADIENT. WEST WINDS WILL
BE A BIT GUSTY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS.
ONE THING TO WATCH IS PLUME OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR WHICH WILL
EXIST IN FAR EASTERN MT ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
FAIR AMOUNT OF CAPE AT BAKER...BUT STRONG CAPPING. AM CONFIDENT IN
KEEPING THE FORECAST FOR OUR FAR EAST DRY TOMORROW AS BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE TO OUR NORTH IN NORTHEAST MT INTO
WESTERN ND... PER SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND A BIT
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING
OVER THE RIDGE.
JKL
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...TUE...
MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND IS THEN
QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS. THIS WILL GIVE
LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON ONWARD.
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL COMMENCE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
TAKING HOLD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE
SHORT TERM WITH DRY AND VERY UNSEASONABLE (AND NEAR RECORD) WARMTH
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. STILL EXPECT FRIDAY TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES EASILY NEARING OR JUST EXCEEDING
90. SATURDAY WILL ALSO BE ANOTHER WARM DAY BUT AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BEGINS TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST WE SHOULD COOL OFF
SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 80S. WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY WHICH WILL HELP COOL TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S FOR
SUNDAY.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE
BEGIN TO APPEAR WITH THE EURO DEVELOPING RIDGING INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS MUCH COOLER AND WETTER AS IT
MOVES A DISTURBANCE EAST FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE
DIFFERENCES ARISE DUE TO THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED. THE EURO
IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN SHORTWAVES CARVING OUT A CUT OFF LOW WHILE
THE GFS IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THESE SHORTWAVES. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD ALLOW THE UPPER LOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY INSTEAD
OF SPLITTING TO OUR NORTHWEST LIKE THE EURO. AN INTERESTING NOTE
IS THE APPROXIMATE 34 DEGREE DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL NOT LEAN TO ANY SOLUTION FOR NOW AND WILL SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE AND GO WITH CLIMO POPS.
DOBBS
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAK FLOW DOMINATING THE REGION. WIND SHEAR IS AGAIN A CONCERN
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS IN KMLS... IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOWER CEILINGS AS WELL... AS INDICATED BY NAM
AND RAP GUIDANCE. POSSIBILITY THUS EXISTS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
FOLLOWING COOLING OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEAR SKIES BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE. MROWELL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON TUE
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 051/083 052/085 055/091 056/085 054/074 050/072 045/067
00/U 00/U 01/U 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
LVM 046/083 046/084 049/084 050/081 048/074 044/068 041/064
00/U 00/U 01/U 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
HDN 047/085 047/087 051/092 053/087 052/076 049/073 044/067
00/U 00/U 01/U 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
MLS 051/081 052/086 057/091 056/086 053/076 051/072 046/068
00/U 00/U 01/U 12/W 23/W 33/W 32/W
4BQ 050/082 050/087 054/090 054/088 054/078 050/073 045/071
00/B 00/U 00/U 11/U 13/W 33/W 32/W
BHK 048/076 049/082 054/084 053/086 051/074 048/070 045/068
00/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 13/W 33/W 32/W
SHR 047/084 047/088 049/088 049/088 050/078 048/075 043/068
00/U 00/U 00/U 11/U 12/W 23/W 32/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WED...AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SECONDARY
CONCERN TODAY IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING WERE A 115 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB PUSHING EWD INTO SRN BC AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THAT JET MAX. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS WERE NOTED IN BC AT CWXS AT 500 MB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATION SHOWED THESE HAD MOVED INTO SRN ALTA AS OF 08Z. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IN STLT IMAGERY WAS THE MOISTURE FROM
TD16 MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN AZ.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THESE WERE CURRENTLY
LODGED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEY ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO LIFT BUT FEEL THEY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS TODAY AND HOVE
TWEAKED AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WE
WILL HAVE SOME MIXING WITH THE SLY FLOW...BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TO
ABOUT 875 MB.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD BEEN CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...BUT LOOKING AT THINGS CLOSER THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. IT MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP WITH SLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER AND MID 60S.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING TUE MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN NE...AND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE AFTN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...BUT BETTER FOCUS MAY
BE MORE IN ERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN OUR WRN COUNTIES BY LATE
WED AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST WED
EVENING...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE AND
LINCOLN TOWARD WAYNE. DETAILS ON THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
TOMORROW. SYSTEM THEN SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THU BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HAVE SOME POPS MENTIONED UNTIL FRI...
THEN IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE WHOLE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
YESTERDAY THOUGH THE MODELS HINTED AT IT...I DID NOT GO STRONG
ENOUGH WITH THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT SO ALL THREE
TAF SITES GOING BACK DOWN INTO LIFR MAINLY AFTER 10Z. AFTER 16Z
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND MVFR AS FOG
BURNS OFF AND LOW CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
713 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WED...AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SECONDARY
CONCERN TODAY IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING WERE A 115 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB PUSHING EWD INTO SRN BC AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THAT JET MAX. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS WERE NOTED IN BC AT CWXS AT 500 MB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATION SHOWED THESE HAD MOVED INTO SRN ALTA AS OF 08Z. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IN STLT IMAGERY WAS THE MOISTURE FROM
TD16 MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN AZ.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THESE WERE CURRENTLY DOWN
ACROSS KS AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE/DEVELOP THESE UP
INTO OUR AREA. HOW LONG THEY STAY AROUND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS TODAY...AND FOR NOW FELT MOST SPOTS WOULD STAY IN THE UPPER
70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S NORTH. WE WILL HAVE SOME MIXING WITH THE
SLY FLOW...BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TO ABOUT 875 MB.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD BEEN CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...BUT LOOKING AT THINGS CLOSER THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. IT MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP WITH SLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER AND MID 60S.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING TUE MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN NE...AND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE AFTN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...BUT BETTER FOCUS MAY
BE MORE IN ERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN OUR WRN COUNTIES BY LATE
WED AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST WED
EVENING...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE AND
LINCOLN TOWARD WAYNE. DETAILS ON THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
TOMORROW. SYSTEM THEN SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THU BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HAVE SOME POPS MENTIONED UNTIL FRI...
THEN IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE WHOLE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH IFR/PATCHY LIFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT
KLNK/KOMA/KOFK THROUGH 16-19Z. AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AND GUSTY...THIS SHOULD HELP THESE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND COULD SEE STRATUS RE-
DEVELOP 06-12Z WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WED...AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SECONDARY
CONCERN TODAY IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING WERE A 115 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB PUSHING EWD INTO SRN BC AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THAT JET MAX. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS WERE NOTED IN BC AT CWXS AT 500 MB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATION SHOWED THESE HAD MOVED INTO SRN ALTA AS OF 08Z. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IN STLT IMAGERY WAS THE MOISTURE FROM
TD16 MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN AZ.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THESE WERE CURRENTLY DOWN
ACROSS KS AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE/DEVELOP THESE UP
INTO OUR AREA. HOW LONG THEY STAY AROUND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS TODAY...AND FOR NOW FELT MOST SPOTS WOULD STAY IN THE UPPER
70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S NORTH. WE WILL HAVE SOME MIXING WITH THE
SLY FLOW...BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TO ABOUT 875 MB.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD BEEN CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...BUT LOOKING AT THINGS CLOSER THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. IT MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP WITH SLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER AND MID 60S.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING TUE MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN NE...AND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE AFTN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...BUT BETTER FOCUS MAY
BE MORE IN ERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN OUR WRN COUNTIES BY LATE
WED AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST WED
EVENING...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE AND
LINCOLN TOWARD WAYNE. DETAILS ON THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
TOMORROW. SYSTEM THEN SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THU BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HAVE SOME POPS MENTIONED UNTIL FRI...
THEN IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE WHOLE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...BUT WINDS IN THE 7-10KT RANGE WILL
HINDER LOWER VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT DECREASE DIURNALLY AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING LARGE SWINGS IN DAILY TEMPERATURES FROM COOL
NIGHTTIME LOWS TO WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO...EXPECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FCST FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE IMPACTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS ON TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AND AREAS OF
FOG. WATER VAPOR DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED S/W TROF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS STREAMING INTO OUR REGION. PROGGED 500 TO
200MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT.
THINKING THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS WILL LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
DEEPER VT VALLEYS. ALSO...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WILL BE DELAYED AND
LESS IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT...AS CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO REACH. HAVE NOTED THE LATEST HRRR CONTS TO SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO IMPACT US...BUT GIVEN DRY LAYER THINKING THIS WILL FALL
AS VIRGA. WILL MENTION FOG IN VALLEY SECTIONS OF VT/NORTHERN
NY...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR SLK AND PARTS OF ESSEX
COUNTY VT. NO ADVISORY NECESSARY GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
FROST ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DEPEND WITH COOLEST
VALUES IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO M/U 40S TO MID
50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU WEDS
NIGHT. ON TUES WEAKENING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET AS SFC HIGH PRES
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS TWD NORTHERN NY. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 7-9C ON
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MTNS TO L/M 70S
WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG CONFINED TO THE CLIMO FAVORED VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NY
AND EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO L/M 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST A STRONG INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT...RESULTING IN
WARMER MID/UPPER SLOPES. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR
HUDSON BAY RIDGING TOWARD NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDS NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND NORTH WINDS BY THURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIR, DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES
BAY THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME-FRAME, THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT WE`LL BE UNDER A GENERAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS AROUND.
TEMPERATURE WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL, 60S/70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR
LOWS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME
DENSE FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME LIFR FOG AT KMSS/KSLK FROM 05-11Z AND POSSIBLY AT KMPV FROM
08-12Z. CLOUDS MAY HINDER FOG AT KMPV. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY FROM 06-14Z AT KSLK/KMPV
EACH MORNING AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1041 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER DEVELOPING LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. A SOLID LOW OVERCAST HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE EAST OF I-95...WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WEST OF I-95. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING INLAND BETWEEN 06-08Z...2-4 AM
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS DARLINGTON AND
BENNETTSVILLE. WHILE I`M NOT SHOWING PRECIPITATION THAT FAR INLAND A
SMALL POP WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
LATE...WITH NON-MEASURABLE SCATTERED SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE. DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS MULTIPLE CENTERS AS OBSERVED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS AVERAGE OUT THOSE SWIRLS TO A COMMON CENTER NEAR
32.0N AND 75.3W. WEST OF THE LOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE
INTENSE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES IS
PUNCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS GRADIENT
SHOULD ACTUALLY INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT... MAINTAINING A
HEALTHY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AT
THE BEACHES COULD EASILY REACH 30 MPH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT ONSHORE BY THE NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDS
UP THROUGH ABOUT 9000 FEET WITH A DRY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EVEN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS ONSHORE TONIGHT THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED IN THE VERTICAL EXTENT WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN DEEP SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE COAST I IMAGINE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TAKE
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE TOTALS.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SHOWS DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE 295K-300K
LAYER WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH CLOUDS AND A STEADY BREEZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURES...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD TO KICK
OFF AUTUMN IS MOUNTING CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED
BY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...PRESSING A DAMMING WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. CONCURRENTLY A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL
RETROGRADE AND FILL MOVING WSW ONTO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOULD
HELP SPUR GOOD CHANCES OF STRATIFORM RAIN THU AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERAL MODERATE LOBES OF H7-H5 VORTICITY ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE
ONSHORE THURSDAY WHICH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BECOME ELEVATED BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP
E-SE WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 400 MB. IT APPEARS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY COME INTO PLAY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THIS PERIOD AND MINIMUMS MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THIS WKND AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL WEATHER
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WELL WEST AS IT GETS
TRAPPED WITHIN A COL NEAR A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF LATCHED
ONTO THE HEAVY RAIN IDEA YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
WEST MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE `FLOOD GATES`
TO OPEN TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE.
850MB U-WIND ANOMALIES REACH -4 SD`S (!) DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
(NEGATIVE SINCE WIND IS A VECTOR...THIS CAN STILL BE CONSIDERED A
POSITIVE SIGNAL) WHICH FLOODS MOISTURE RIGHT INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHERE PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE
DEVELOPS AS A JET ENTRANCE REGION BLOSSOMS TO OUR NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHICH DRIVES
INCREASING WINDS...AND FORCES STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 310 AND
315 K ATOP THE INLAND WEDGE. ALL THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FRI..SAT...AND SUN...BEFORE A BACK DOOR FRONT
SINKS SOUTH AND THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS...CAUSING DRYING LOCALLY. WPC
QPF PAINTS 3-5" ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COAST...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
AMOUNTS SW. SEE NO REASON TO MOVE AWAY FROM THESE FORECAST VALUES
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STILL BE UNSETTLED BUT OVERALL WILL BE MUCH
DRIER.
TEMPS FRI-SUN WILL FEATURE LOW DIURNAL RANGES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS JUST ABOVE. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL
BE THE WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AND THE LOW CLOUDS AND
CEILINGS. MODERATE LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE EXIST FOR MVFR AND LOW
CONFIDENCE IN IFR FORECAST FOR THE PERIOD. MODELS WANT TO TAKE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST AND DRIFT IT BACK TO THE
WEST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTHWEST
THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTEN OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN A STRONG N TO NNE FLOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 15KT WITH GUSTS
AROUND 20-25KTS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD RESULTING IN MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS.
STRAY SHOWERS AND SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE WILL ALSO PERSIST MAINLY FROM
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING ON BUT I WILL NOT MENTION AT THE TERMINALS.
CONDITIONS STAY BLEAK FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AND ACTUALLY GET
WORSE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
VSBY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8 FEET AT
THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOWARD THE UPPER END
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GUSTS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
REACHED 31 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...29 KNOTS
AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...25 KNOTS AT THE SUNSET BEACH
BUOY...AND 24 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY ANOTHER 3-5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...GIVING VERY SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE BEACHES. BASED
ON RECENTLY OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS AND AN 18Z RUN OF THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...OUR FORECAST SEAS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT...WITH
8-FOOTERS NOW EXPECTED IN THE 10-20 MILES ZONE EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...DIFFICULT MARINE CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS
MODERATE AND STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL INTERACT WITH AN OFFSHORE
LOW DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. NHC HAS 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL ENTITY. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH 6AM THU MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THIS FOR SEAS TO RECOVER. STRONGEST WINDS 20-30
KT TO PREVAIL WED THROUGH EARLY THU. MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS 5-7 FEET
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AND
MARINERS SHOULD GET RADAR UPDATES BEFORE VENTURING OUT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS PERSISTENT NE FLOW CONTINUES AND INTENSIFIES...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BACK UP TO THE COAST
THIS WKND...AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE
COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS FRIDAY RISING TO 15-20 KTS
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHEN
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 4-5 FT AND THEN ONLY VERY SLOWLY DROP OFF ON
SUNDAY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM 2-4 FT EARLY TO 3-5 FT
LATE. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY
SATURDAY...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
MAY INSTEAD BE NEEDED THIS WKND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
243 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
A HOT ONE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR
LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS BOOSTING
TO AROUND 90 JUST EAST OF FRONT IN AREA OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE RRV INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN. HRRR TRIES TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP AHD OF FRONT IN
FAR ERN FCST AREA NR 00Z-01Z...BUT BEMIDJI SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THUS DEFINITELY FEEL
LIKE DRY FCST IS THE WAY TO GO.
TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESP
NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
MAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATION IS FOCUSED IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE IN NW ND/SE SASK TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST RUNNING INTO VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AIRMASS. THUS FEEL ANY
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AND WILL HAVE
OUR FCST AREA DRY. 12Z NAM AND ECMWF TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF PRECIP WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CERTAINLY CAN BE
SOME...BUT THINK IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARRIVES
INTO ERN SD/SW MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET INCREASES. MAIN INSTABILITY SURGE HOWEVER IS
MORE SO TOWARD 12Z WED IN THE FAR SOUTH. THUS FOLLOWED WFO DLH
LEAD AND SLOWED DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST
POPS AFTER 06Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL TO SOUR SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA INTO
WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THERE FOR SCT SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WED INTO
THURSDAY BUT UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. THUS COVERAGE OF PRECIP NOT GREAT.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BASICALLY LOOK TO STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BEST MODEL
AGREEMENT COMES IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE WEATHER LOOKING
DRY AND TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
WANE. THEREFORE HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH GUIDANCE PCPN CHANCES
WHICH INDICATE SOME LOW END CHANCES. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MAIN THING TODAY WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SWITCH TO THE SW AND THEN
WEST THROUGH NW. COULD BE RATHER GUSTY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH MAY TRY TO WORK IN OR THIN OUT BY THE TIME THEY
ARRIVE HERE. LEFT THE SCATTERED MENTION OF A 4000FT DECK JUST IN
CASE. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES BY THEN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
FCST ON TRACK. HRRR SFC TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 90 IN THE MID RRV
RIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS HANDLED WELL IN FCST SO NO
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
CHALLENGE FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS TEMPS AND TIMING OF FROPA AND
WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE BEST PREFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90...AS
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS MIX DOWN 20C FROM 850MB ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WILL PEAK AROUND
25KTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SHORT DURATION AND RELATIVELY
SMALL AREA PRECLUDES A NEED FOR A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
DRY FROPA PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
SET FOR TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF 30 TO 40KT
LLJ. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MOST LIKELY PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
EAST IN THE MODERATE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARIATION ON HOW
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE THEY HAVE COMING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE WET. WILL KEEP THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP BLENDED POPS GOING WITH A DRIER PERIOD
SATURDAY AND LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
VFR WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTH TO NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SW TO W 15 TO 20MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30MPH PEAKING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LINGERING PATCH OF MVFR FOG IN SWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS... IT IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. WRN TAF SITES MAY
EXPERIENCE S/SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS AND/OR MVFR BR IN FAR NRN OK TUE AM. AT
THE MOMENT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE
KPNC TAF AT THIS TIME.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT IS
ONLY SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF TEXAS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS AND FORECAST A SLOWER RISE IN EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. HRRR TEMPERATURES WERE LOADED AND
SLIGHT MODIFIED FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE HEAT RETURNS THIS
AFTERNOON TO PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 89 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 66 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 88 67 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT IS
ONLY SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF TEXAS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS AND FORECAST A SLOWER RISE IN EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. HRRR TEMPERATURES WERE LOADED AND
SLIGHT MODIFIED FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE HEAT RETURNS THIS
AFTERNOON TO PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 89 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 66 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 88 67 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
652 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL TAKE
ON A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN WANTING TO BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MID
SUSQ VALLEY...TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SO FAR THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT...WITH LOW CLOUDS JUST HAVING BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE NJ
COAST. THE DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE WRF SHOW THE LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MID DAY OR EVEN MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY WANTS TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. THIS IDEA OF LIGHT QPF
IS BACKED UP BY THE SREF AND GEFS AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE. COOLER THAN SUNDAY
OVER THE CLOUDIER SOUTH...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
SUNNIER NORTH.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MEAGER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THE MASSIVE RIDGE FROM
OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO POKE ITS NOSE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. LOOKS FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES...SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS MAKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE GOOD PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HUGE AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE
US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY...IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER
THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...AND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...I HAVE FAIR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING SOME 4-8 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
ASTRONOMICAL FALL STARTS AT 4:21 AM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REALLY BRIGHT
ORANGE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS...MORE LIGHT PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT JST AND PERHAPS AT AOO LATER TODAY.
MOST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST DEWPOINTS NOT REAL HIGH TO
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL TAKE ON
A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN WANTING TO BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MID
SUSQ VALLEY...TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SO FAR THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT...WITH LOW CLOUDS JUST HAVING BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE NJ
COAST. THE DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE WRF SHOW THE LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MID DAY OR EVEN MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY WANTS TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. THIS IDEA OF LIGHT QPF IS
BACKED UP BY THE SREF AND GEFS AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE. COOLER THAN SUNDAY
OVER THE CLOUDIER SOUTH...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
SUNNIER NORTH.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MEAGER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THE MASSIVE RIDGE FROM
OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO POKE ITS NOSE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. LOOKS FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES...SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS MAKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE GOOD PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HUGE AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE
US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY...IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER
THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...AND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...I HAVE FAIR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING SOME 4-8 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
ASTRONOMICAL FALL STARTS AT 4:21 AM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR 09Z TAF PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO ADD A GROUP TO JST.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS OF 1 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KBFD.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA ON
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES
OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST. THE INFLUX OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME OCNL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY MON AFTN.
BLEND OF 15Z SREF AND 18Z OPER MDLS SUGGEST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KJST/KAOO BY LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE AT KMDT/KLNS.
BY MON NIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KJST/KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED-THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE KBFD/KIPT.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL TAKE ON
A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN WANTING TO BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MID
SUSQ VALLEY...TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SO FAR THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT...WITH LOW CLOUDS JUST HAVING BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE NJ
COAST. THE DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE WRF SHOW THE LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MID DAY OR EVEN MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY WANTS TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. THIS IDEA OF LIGHT QPF IS
BACKED UP BY THE SREF AND GEFS AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE. COOLER THAN SUNDAY
OVER THE CLOUDIER SOUTH...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
SUNNIER NORTH.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MEAGER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THE MASSIVE RIDGE FROM
OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO POKE ITS NOSE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. LOOKS FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES...SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS MAKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE GOOD PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HUGE AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE
US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY...IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER
THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...AND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...I HAVE FAIR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING SOME 4-8 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
ASTRONOMICAL FALL STARTS AT 4:21 AM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO ADD A GROUP TO JST.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS OF 1 AM.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KBFD.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA ON
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES
OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST. THE INFLUX OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME OCNL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY MON AFTN.
BLEND OF 15Z SREF AND 18Z OPER MDLS SUGGEST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KJST/KAOO BY LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE AT KMDT/KLNS.
BY MON NIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KJST/KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED-THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE KBFD/KIPT.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING THE CLOUDINESS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PULL FARTHER EASTWARD. PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AT CKV & CSV, OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...BUT SHOULD NOT EFFECT THE TAF AREAS. OTW...THE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID STATE AND THEN INTENSIFY TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DECREASE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SKC SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MID
STATE AS OF 09Z(4AM CDT)...AND HRRR MODEL SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY
CONTINUING THRU 16Z(11 AM CDT)...WILL UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THESE
AREAS THRU 16Z. SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND PER DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB PER MOST RECENT LAPS SOUNDING PROFILES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM(TODAY-WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SKY COVER TIMING EROSION TODAY...TEMPS.
A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECASTS THRU WED NIGHT...WITH STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTION RESOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT.
CLOUD COVERAGE APPROACHING 08Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS TAILOR CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY FOR A DECREASING
CLOUDINESS TREND W MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON E. MOCLR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE MERGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NE U.S.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...LOW TO MID 80S...UPPER 70S
PLATEAU...BY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...
THE GFS PROGRESSION OF THE EXT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BELIEVABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD
TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE...IN
THIS EXT FCST...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS GA AND
EASTERN TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MIDDLE TN ON THE DRY SIDE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE SFC HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A
SOUTHWESTERN SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL SET UP IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOW BE
LOCATED WEST OF THE MID STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REBOUND OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SO FOR THE FCST...WILL BEGIN
TO BRING BACK LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. THE EURO IS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH THATS
NOT THE MODEL OF CHOICE...A BLEND AND A TREND TOWARD ISC GRIDS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 83 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 51 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 77 55 79 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 51 83 54 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 54 82 56 83 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...BUT SHOULD NOT EFFECT THE TAF AREAS. OTW...THE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID STATE AND THEN INTENSIFY TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DECREASE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SKC SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MID
STATE AS OF 09Z(4AM CDT)...AND HRRR MODEL SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY
CONTINUING THRU 16Z(11 AM CDT)...WILL UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THESE
AREAS THRU 16Z. SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND PER DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB PER MOST RECENT LAPS SOUNDING PROFILES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM(TODAY-WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SKY COVER TIMING EROSION TODAY...TEMPS.
A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECASTS THRU WED NIGHT...WITH STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTION RESOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT.
CLOUD COVERAGE APPROACHING 08Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS TAILOR CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY FOR A DECREASING
CLOUDINESS TREND W MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON E. MOCLR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE MERGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NE U.S.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...LOW TO MID 80S...UPPER 70S
PLATEAU...BY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...
THE GFS PROGRESSION OF THE EXT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BELIEVABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD
TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE...IN
THIS EXT FCST...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS GA AND
EASTERN TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MIDDLE TN ON THE DRY SIDE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE SFC HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A
SOUTHWESTERN SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL SET UP IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOW BE
LOCATED WEST OF THE MID STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REBOUND OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SO FOR THE FCST...WILL BEGIN
TO BRING BACK LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. THE EURO IS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH THATS
NOT THE MODEL OF CHOICE...A BLEND AND A TREND TOWARD ISC GRIDS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 55 83 58 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 51 82 53 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 52 77 55 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 51 83 54 / 40 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 80 54 82 56 / 40 10 0 0
WAVERLY 81 53 83 54 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
443 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MID
STATE AS OF 09Z(4AM CDT)...AND HRRR MODEL SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY
CONTINUING THRU 16Z(11 AM CDT)...WILL UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THESE
AREAS THRU 16Z. SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND PER DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB PER MOST RECENT LAPS SOUNDING PROFILES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM(TODAY-WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SKY COVER TIMING EROSION TODAY...TEMPS.
A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECASTS THRU WED NIGHT...WITH STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTION RESOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT.
CLOUD COVERAGE APPROACHING 08Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS TAILOR CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY FOR A DECREASING
CLOUDINESS TREND W MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON E. MOCLR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE MERGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NE U.S.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...LOW TO MID 80S...UPPER 70S
PLATEAU...BY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...
THE GFS PROGRESSION OF THE EXT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BELIEVABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD
TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE...IN
THIS EXT FCST...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS GA AND
EASTERN TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MIDDLE TN ON THE DRY SIDE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE SFC HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A
SOUTHWESTERN SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL SET UP IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOW BE
LOCATED WEST OF THE MID STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REBOUND OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SO FOR THE FCST...WILL BEGIN
TO BRING BACK LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. THE EURO IS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH THATS
NOT THE MODEL OF CHOICE...A BLEND AND A TREND TOWARD ISC GRIDS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 55 83 58 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 51 82 53 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 52 77 55 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 51 83 54 / 40 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 80 54 82 56 / 40 10 0 0
WAVERLY 81 53 83 54 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
16-E CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO. AT
LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 4 TO 6 KFT FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW TAKES CONTROL ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE AT SAT/SSF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHERE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN SCT010 AND BKN010...THUS HAVE
LEFT IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z FOR BORDERLINE MVFR-IFR CIGS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE CLOUDS HELPED PREVENT
PATCHY FOG FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG FROM AUS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EVERYWHERE BY
15Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
A BURNET TO ROUND ROCK TO GIDDINGS LINE. THIS FEATURE IS WEAK AS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW ANY WIND SHIFT NORTH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE EAST OF I-35. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING EAST OF I-35 AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
LATEST FORECAST. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. WE/LL ONCE
AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS NOW DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS FEATURE AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL DATA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL GO WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A VERY
GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 96 72 95 70 / - - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 95 68 94 66 / - - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 96 69 97 68 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 70 93 68 / - - - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 95 71 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 94 68 / - - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 96 69 95 68 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 69 94 68 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 95 69 94 68 / - - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 72 94 71 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 95 70 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
into southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas by this evening.
Guidance indicates KCNM has the best chance to see a prolonged
period of shower/thunderstorm activity tonight as well as
potential ceiling/visibility reductions to IFR through Tuesday
morning. Uncertainty regarding storm activity increases further
east, though have included a TEMPO for KHOB and will defer to
later shifts for inclusion of thunderstorms at other TAF sites as
conditions warrant. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light southerly to southeasterly winds through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Monday...The main weather maker
for the next couple of days will be EPAC TD 16-E which is moving
across south central Baja California Sur. Southwesterly shear is
displacing the thunderstorm activity into Sonora Mexico. Ridging
is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico.
As the remnants of TD 16-E move into the Desert SW mid level
moisture and instability will increase across the Davis and
Guadalupe Mtns. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and
the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru
mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system
will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the
ridge flattening. Have slight chc pops as far east as the Western
Permian Basin tonight/Tuesday. With the moist ground from recent
rains have trended temps a little below MOS guidance.
Medium range models start to diverge mid week. The GFS is weaker
and further north with the remnant mid/upper level shortwave...
placing it in the Northern Plains by Thursday with broad ridging
centered over the Desert SW. The ECMWF keeps a stronger mid/upper
level shortwave further south with the ridge further west. The
ECMWF is significantly wetter and cooler for the CWA...especially
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos Thursday thru Saturday. Will
keep thunderstorm chances in the Mtns Wed/Thu...and the CWA dry
Friday thru next weekend under weak ridging.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT WE HAVE SEEN
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
KLBB AND KPVW WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS...
THOUGH KCDS COULD FALL TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A SHORT WHILE. THE
TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND GENERALLY OF A SOUTHERLY PERSUASION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
HAS INVADED THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BEHIND YESTERDAY/S DISTURBANCE.
THIS HAS BROUGHT A FIRM END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY TRAVERSES WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE DOES REMAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINT /DEPRESSIONS OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES ARE COMMON AT 08Z/ WE COULD
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND THE VEERING /ALBEIT WEAK/ WIND
COULD MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE HAVE INCLUDED
A PATCHY MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. ANY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX/SCATTER OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
SOUTHERLY BREEZES PROPELLING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SURGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR
WEST WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS EDGE TOWARD THE TX/NM LINE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL AND MILD FALL
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM...
A UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WELL WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEK. AS THE REMNANT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR COUNTIES NEAREST TO THE STATE LINE. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING SHOWERS BRUSH PARMER COUNTY. THIS WAVE SHOULD HAVE
PROGRESSED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY....BUT THE
FOLLOWING WAVE SHOULD THEN BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STARTING THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
TROUGHING FOR WEST TEXAS...BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF
IS THE COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION AS THE TROUGH ACTUALLY CLOSES
OFF AT 500 MB THEN DRIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH NORTH TO EAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS SOME SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES PROVIDE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND LOW 90S IN
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF PROJECTION WOULD SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND WE/LL BE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 62 80 61 / 0 0 20 20
TULIA 88 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 88 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 89 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 91 65 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 87 63 81 62 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 89 64 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 92 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 92 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Western TAF sites have cleared out and radiated down to the dewpt
allowing shallow fog to develop with LIFR vsbys and cigs. Do not
expect this fog to last too long... also some patchy stratus
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos hiding under the higher
clouds. Have included evening storms at CNM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Monday...The main weather maker
for the next couple of days will be EPAC TD 16-E which is moving
across south central Baja California Sur. Southwesterly shear is
displacing the thunderstorm activity into Sonora Mexico. Ridging
is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico.
As the remnants of TD 16-E move into the Desert SW mid level
moisture and instability will increase across the Davis and
Guadalupe Mtns. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and
the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru
mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system
will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the
ridge flattening. Have slight chc pops as far east as the Western
Permian Basin tonight/Tuesday. With the moist ground from recent
rains have trended temps a little below MOS guidance.
Medium range models start to diverge mid week. The GFS is weaker
and further north with the remnant mid/upper level shortwave...
placing it in the Northern Plains by Thursday with broad ridging
centered over the Desert SW. The ECMWF keeps a stronger mid/upper
level shortwave further south with the ridge further west. The
ECMWF is significantly wetter and cooler for the CWA...especially
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos Thursday thru Saturday. Will
keep thunderstorm chances in the Mtns Wed/Thu...and the CWA dry
Friday thru next weekend under weak ridging.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
A BURNET TO ROUND ROCK TO GIDDINGS LINE. THIS FEATURE IS WEAK AS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW ANY WIND SHIFT NORTH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE EAST OF I-35. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING EAST OF I-35 AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
LATEST FORECAST. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. WE/LL ONCE
AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS NOW DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS FEATURE AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL DATA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL GO WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A VERY
GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 73 96 72 95 / - - - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 68 95 68 94 / - - - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 70 96 69 97 / 0 - - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 94 70 93 / 0 - - - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 72 95 72 95 / 0 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 70 94 71 94 / - - - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 68 96 69 95 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 94 69 94 / - - - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 71 95 69 94 / 10 - - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 95 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 95 71 95 / 0 - - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Monday...The main weather maker
for the next couple of days will be EPAC TD 16-E which is moving
across south central Baja California Sur. Southwesterly shear is
displacing the thunderstorm activity into Sonora Mexico. Ridging
is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico.
As the remnants of TD 16-E move into the Desert SW mid level
moisture and instability will increase across the Davis and
Guadalupe Mtns. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and
the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru
mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system
will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the
ridge flattening. Have slight chc pops as far east as the Western
Permian Basin tonight/Tuesday. With the moist ground from recent
rains have trended temps a little below MOS guidance.
Medium range models start to diverge mid week. The GFS is weaker
and further north with the remnant mid/upper level shortwave...
placing it in the Northern Plains by Thursday with broad ridging
centered over the Desert SW. The ECMWF keeps a stronger mid/upper
level shortwave further south with the ridge further west. The
ECMWF is significantly wetter and cooler for the CWA...especially
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos Thursday thru Saturday. Will
keep thunderstorm chances in the Mtns Wed/Thu...and the CWA dry
Friday thru next weekend under weak ridging.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 89 67 89 64 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 84 68 83 65 / 10 40 40 30
DRYDEN TX 93 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 89 67 89 68 / 10 10 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 77 61 77 59 / 20 50 30 40
HOBBS NM 84 64 80 63 / 0 20 20 10
MARFA TX 79 63 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 87 68 87 68 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 87 68 86 68 / 0 10 10 10
WINK TX 90 69 90 68 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
72/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB BUT ALREADY SEEING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
BREAKING OUT BEFORE NOON LOCAL TIME AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET SO
THERE COULD BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
CEILINGS BREAK OUT LATE TOMORROW MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MONDAY.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
AVIATION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KCDS AND
TEMPO GROUP IN CURRENT TAF REFLECTS TIME OF ARRIVAL BASED ON
CURRENT SPEED AND MOTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON
LOCAL TIME.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN...AND IS AIDING STREAMING A FETCH
OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EMERGENCE OF A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS IS HELPING TO VEER FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEAR ZONAL TO THE NW AND AS SUCH...IS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SWRD WITH TIME. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THANKS TO LAST
NIGHTS ADEQUATE LLJ COUPLED WITH WAA...THE ONCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE BECOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE UA
RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY EXPANDING WRD TOWARDS THE REGION IS
HELPING TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TOP DOWN...INITIALLY NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...NWRN AND NRN ZONES GIVEN CLEARING SKIES
THERE...AND WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN TO ACROSS THE SERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. SFC TROUGHING/A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...COMBINED
WITH A BIT OF INSOLATION....DETERIORATING CIN AND SB CAPE VALUES OF
1200+ J/KG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RAISES CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORMS /POSSIBLY STRONG/ FIRING UP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. IN FACT...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWED CI OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE NW OF WHEELER TX AS
WELL AS SW OF MEMPHIS TX ALONG THAT SFC BOUNDARY. THE TTU WRF
MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA WHICH APPEARS TO NOT
HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE HRRR ON THE OTHER-HAND MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP SITUATION...AS IT DEVELOPS SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE WHICH THEN PUSHES SOUTH
TO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DESPITE THE
MEAN FLOW BEING THE FROM THE W-SW. PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/A
COLD POOL COULD AID IN THIS SWRD TRAJECTORY. HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED
TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 21/06Z.
TONIGHT...THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE FA...AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WRD TOWARDS THE REGION.
NWRLY FLOW WILL THEREFORE BRIEFLY BECOME ESTABLISHED...HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE FILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM SOLUTION IN PARTICULARLY HONES IN
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK...AS SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. FURTHERMORE...IT IS
LIKELY HANGING ITS HAT ON LAST NIGHT/S AND TODAY/S PRECIP ACTIVITY
BEING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED. THOUGH LOOKING
BACK...THE BEST PRECIP /SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH/ FELL ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND PERMIAN BASIN VERSUS SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
CWA. NOT SURE IF THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE RATHER DENSE FOG AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM /BELOW 1/4 MILE/ BUT PERHAPS LIGHT FOG/HAZE AND/OR
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY...THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THE BULK OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WE WILL
HOLD ON TO SMALL THUNDER MENTION ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AREAS
TUESDAY. QUICKLY FOLLOWING WILL BE THE OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
BAJA THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP AND MAINTAINING MORE
INTENSITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD FALL OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES INITIALLY AS UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTH AND WEST
EVENTUALLY TO REFORM FURTHER WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THOUGH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT...STILL VALID FOR A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REFORMS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THIS MAY OPEN
A WINDOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOW TO DIP
BACK SOUTHWARD. OUR SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS
AND WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GIVES SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THAT FAR EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AFTER
AN INITIAL COUPLE OR THREE FAIRLY WARM DAYS THIS WEEK...THE
COMBINATION OF IMPROVED MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH LESS
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 60 88 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 60 89 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 60 87 61 85 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 92 67 94 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND...DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...INTO
THE CAROLINAS...AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER GEORGIA WITH A TROF TRAILING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENTERING WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEPARATE MORE FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTS WEST. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. FORECAST LIFTED INDEX
AND OTHER STABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWED A WELL FORMED WEDGE AND STABLE
AIR REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT SATURATED WITH ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO KEEP
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. NOT AS MUCH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO TUESDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE DAY. WENT
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND OF THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGES. HRRR SHOWED THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA MOVING NORTHEAST BY 00Z THEN MORE
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM TAKES A DETOUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES TO CREATE GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH SOME LOWER THETA/E AIR WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND HELP SUPPRESS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO IS THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS MODEL WHICH FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS IS NOT AS
ROBUST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION STARTING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE GFS IS DISCOUNTING THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE A BIT TOO MUCH
AND AT THIS TIME WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...THOUGH THIS IS FAR FROM A SETTLED MATTER AND WILL BE
CAREFULLY WATCHING TRENDS IN LATER MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER
60S/LOW70S WEST...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
COMING AROUND TO AN UNSETTLED AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN OPENING UP AND PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PICKS UP STEAM AND DRIVES
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEFORMATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE LOW
DEEPENS AND STARTS TO PULL AWAY ON MONDAY. WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD BUT WILL NOT GO TOO FAR TOWARD
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THAT IS VERY WET. LATER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WILL HELP BRING THIS PERIOD INTO FOCUS AS IT DRAWS BEAR.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE BASED WEDGE WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z END OF
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WIND UNDER THE INVERSION WERE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WHICH RESULTED IN AN INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.
THIS UPSLOPE AIDED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS GENERATING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWED
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 23Z/7PM AND
03Z/11PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM 03Z/11PM TO
12Z/8AM. THE LATEST LOCAL WRF RUN AND BUFKIT SUGGESTED A VERY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS MAY
REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION AND POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONE PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
OFFER A SOLUTION THAT REDUCES THE EXTENT THAT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER ROUGHLY 200 AM MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO CONFIRM A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH...AND AFTER...THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTHWEST OF
ROANOKE VIRGINIA. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH ROUGHLY 200 AM.
AS OF 625 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS THAN ISOLATED WITHIN AN AREA AROUND MARTINSVILLE
VIRGINIA...WEST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS CENTRAL STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COLLECTION OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL
WITH A NOSE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AND
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 C. THIS AREA...AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKS OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER WERE MADE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
DETERIORIATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEDGE
OF MOIST...COOL AIR IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING AND LOWERING
AND THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...THEN TRENDING LOWER
AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS.
WEDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...THUS LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP.
WIND FLOW THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST...5 TO 10KTS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PD. SOME GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE RIDGE TOPS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR
MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
SEVERAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY...RATHER KEEPING THE
SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
435 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
OBVIOUS CONCERN TODAY WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS. CURRENT SITUATION HAS
SRN END OF SIOUXLAND MCS SEEMINGLY ANCHORED IN PLACE WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BALANCING MEAN WIND. THIS RESULTS IN NEGLIGIBLE
CORFIDI VECTORS AND SLOW CELL MOVEMENT. HOWEVER MORE WIDESPREAD AND
ELEVATED WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION IS ALSO PUSHING NORTHWARD AND
RESULTING IN EXPANSION ACROSS SD...BUT NOT FARTHER INTO NW IA AS OF
YET. FEEL THIS WILL HAPPEN SOON HOWEVER SO HAVE POPS TO LIKELY
DURING THE MORNING.
LOOKING FARTHER UPSTREAM MOISTURE AND FAIRLY DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH TD REMNANTS BUILDS INTO WRN IA BY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE EXTREMES ARE FARTHER WEST OF FORECAST
AREA...STILL FEEL WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 3.5KM AND PWATS PUSHING
1.75 WITHIN A ZONE OF STEADY MOISTURE TRANSPORT ARE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR EFFICIENT RAINS. CONCERN IS THAT LEFT OVER CONVERGENCE
FROM SIOUXLAND MCS WILL INTERACT WITH THIS APPROACHING FORCING AND
MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. HI RES HOPWRF AND NCAR ENSEMBLE
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES OF A FEW INCHES OF RAIN ARE QUITE HIGH
INTO IA LATER TODAY SO HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING. THIS MAKES
SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FAIRLY
WEAK MEAN WIND PARALLEL THROUGH THE DAY. OUR NW COUNTIES ARE NOT
TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING AND HAVE DECENT
TILING...BUT THREE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN
THE 2.5 TO 2.75 INCH RANGE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED IF CONFIDENCE IN THE EASTERN EXTENT OF HEAVY RAIN
INCREASES.
TEMP CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE GREATEST DUE TO PRECIP POTENTIAL. THERE
MAY BE QUITE A GRADIENT NW-SE. KEPT NW IA IN THE MID 70S WITH SERN
SECTIONS JUST A TAD BELOW PERSISTENCE.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF WHAT SHOULD BE A
QUIET LONG TERM FCST PERIOD. PRECIP...AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SHORT
TERM DISCUSSION...WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN OUR W/NW TO START
THIS LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS BEGINNING TO SHOW CONSISTENCY WITH
HANDLING EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM. GFS ON AN ISLAND OF ITS OWN
WITH TRANSPORTING MOISTURE EAST AND NORTH INTO EASTERN IOWA SO
HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM IT. EURO...UKMET...AND THE NAM HAVE BEEN
STRONGLY ADVOCATING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE SFC LOW. WITH
THE GULF CLOSED...THIS SYSTEM IS LOSES ITS MOISTURE REINFORCEMENT
AND GRADUALLY WEAKENS AFTER 12Z THU. PWAT VALUES WILL BE
GRADUALLY DECREASING THROUGHOUT THURSDAY...BUT AFTER STARTING OFF
ALMOST IN THE +2 TO +3 STD DEV RANGE EARLY ON...THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO KICK OUT AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF
AN INCH OF RAIN IN OUR WEST AS PRECIP EFFICIENCY SHOULD REMAIN
DECENT. CAPE VALUES ALSO EFFECTIVELY DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY...SUGGESTING WEAKENING OF THIS SYSTEM. BULK SHEAR VALUES
REMAIN UNDER 30 KTS...WHICH...WHEN COUPLED WITH DWINDLING
INSTABILITY...NULLIFY SVR WX CHANCES FOR THURSDAY.
FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WILL SERVE AS A PRECIP SHIELD
FOR OUR CWA AS SUBSIDENCE SHOULD BE IN PLACE FOR A FEW DAYS.
850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 15C LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 STD DEV ABOVE
NORMAL AND SHOULD TRANSLATE TO DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S. PERSISTENCE WILL PROVIDE A GOOD FCST STARTING POINT.
BEYOND THIS WEEKEND...EURO AND GFS ACTUALLY COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH
BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION SOMETIME LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THE GFS IS SIGNALING PWATS IN THE 1.5 INCH RANGE SO THIS
APPEARS TO BE OUR NEXT BEST PRECIP CHANCE AFTER EARLY FRIDAY. BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY...MUCH COOLER AIR BE ADVECTED INTO IOWA AS A SIZABLE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGD TO SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS MAY REACH DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH
WOULD PUT LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT OVER NEBRASKA IS INITIATION AREA AND MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES HRRR AND
00Z NAM BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL 13-15Z OVER THE WEST AND SLOWLY BUILD NORTH WITH TIME. CIGS
TO MAINLY REMAIN VFR. PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-14Z.
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF I35.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 12KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
15-17KTS AFT 18Z. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S FORECAST PROVED RATHER CHALLENGING
GIVEN THE ONGOING ELEVATED LINE OF CONVECTION THAT...AGAINST THE
ODDS...MAINTAINED ITSELF ALONG A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK 850 MB WAA
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA. NO OPERATIONAL CAMS
HAVE RESOLVED THIS CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY (UP UNTIL THE 19Z
RUN OF THE HRRR)...SO THIS EVENING`S FORECAST IS BASED HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE AND THE MEAN CORFIDI VECTORS. GIVEN THE 1500 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 30 KTS OR MORE...SEE NO REASON FOR WHY
THESE STORMS WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE THIS EVENING.
THE TRAJECTORY FORECAST TAKES THE STORMS ON A MORE SOUTHERLY COURSE
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES ONWARD...CLIPPING THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE DES MOINES METRO BY 22 TO 23Z. HAVE TAPERED OFF STORMS AFTER 00Z
SOUTH AND WEST OF DES MOINES...BUT GIVEN THE LONGEVITY OF THIS
EVENT...POP TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND ADJUSTED AS
NEEDED THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL CELLS ARE IGNITING ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A STRONGER PUSH OF 700-500 MB TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...AGAIN POORLY RESOLVED BY THE CAMS. HAVE LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
POSSIBLY BLEEDING INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA.
BACK TO THE SYNOPTIC FORECAST...A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD 500MB CLOSED LOW WORKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND BETTER
KINEMATIC FORCING CLOSER TO THE UPPER LOW. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE
ENTERING WESTERN IOWA TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL CENTER AROUND THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME. MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING TROPICAL DEPRESSION
CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST ALONG
WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AT A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE PLAINS WITH A FRONTAL EXTENDING ACROSS
WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN IOWA. AFTER SEEING HOW TODAY EVOLVED I BELIEVE
THESE AREAS WILL BE MOST PRONE TO SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL AND SOME
STRONGER STORMS...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING
BUT WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY THERE IS STRONG QG FORCING
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS TIED TO
SOME THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL. PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD THE AREA OF
CONCERN DEPICTED WELL BUT I HAD TO INCREASE THE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL FROM THE ISOLATED WORDING WE HAD...ESPECIALLY FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO EXIST. I DO NOT THINK THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MUCH TO WORRY
ABOUT GIVEN THE LACK OF SHEAR AND THE WANING INSTABILITY WITH TIME.
BY FRIDAY MODELS BUILD RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO IOWA AND
THEY SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE COMING ACROSS THE PLAINS BUT DIVING TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BEFORE AFFECTING IOWA. WE HAD DRY GRIDS GOING AND I
KEPT THAT GOING. THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND MILD. BEYOND
SUNDAY THE MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE. NOW THE GFS DEVELOPS A
DEEP TROUGH INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A
BIG RIDGE INTO THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD THE
MODELS WITH REVERSED SOLUTIONS. I KEPT WITH PERSISTENCE FOR NOW
UNTIL THE MODELS RESOLVE THEIR ISSUES.
&&
.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA
OVERNIGHT. WARM FRONT OVER NEBRASKA IS INITIATION AREA AND MOST OF
THE CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES HRRR AND
00Z NAM BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION WILL GENERALLY HOLD OFF
UNTIL 13-15Z OVER THE WEST AND SLOWLY BUILD NORTH WITH TIME. CIGS
TO MAINLY REMAIN VFR. PATCHY BR WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 11-14Z.
FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF I35.
SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO NEAR 12KTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS
15-17KTS AFT 18Z. /REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
221 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SERIES OF H7/H5 UPPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH A MEAN SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEAREST UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF SW KANSAS. PWATS AS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS
ARE NEARING 1.4-1.5 SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG I-70 IN COLORADO. THIS
STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH INTO SW AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
HIGHER CINH HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING (SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ALONG/EAST OF CO/KS
STATE LINE. A SECOND UPPER LOW/STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AROUND 06-09Z.
BEST INSTABILITY QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CONTINUOUS SOUTH TO NORTH BUILDING/TRAINING
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SLOWS DOWN OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ALLOWING FOR MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
LINGER EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
POSSIBLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST...SO LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS MAY REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I SHOWED A DECREASING
TREND IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY
AS CLEARING/WAA IN THE WEST COULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS EAST OF FRONTAL
ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE
COMING WEEKEND AND FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN JET ENERGY
AND LIFT WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO
DRY WEATHER AND WARM CONDITIONS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ARE
EXPECTED.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME PRECIPITATION WOULD BE TUESDAY AS
THE GFS DEPICTS A TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE MIDWESTERN STATES THAT
COULD PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF INDICATES AN
INCREASING AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS REGION. THE LATEST
ECMWF RUN IS CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS WHEREAS THE GFS IS COMING
MORE IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ECMWF THAN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THAT
BEING SAID...THE ECMWF AT THIS CURRENT TIME APPEARS TO BE THE MORE
TRUSTWORTHY FORECAST TO USE. THEREFORE...TENDED TO GO MORE WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION AND LOWERED CONSENSUS POPS SLIGHTLY IN THE TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AS COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH IS
BROUGHT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE AT KGLD AS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND 09Z. BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TOWARD 12Z PRODUCING
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SITES,
ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING
WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1056 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SERIES OF H7/H5 UPPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH A MEAN SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEAREST UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF SW KANSAS. PWATS AS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS
ARE NEARING 1.4-1.5 SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG I-70 IN COLORADO. THIS
STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH INTO SW AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
HIGHER CINH HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING (SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ALONG/EAST OF CO/KS
STATE LINE. A SECOND UPPER LOW/STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AROUND 06-09Z.
BEST INSTABILITY QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CONTINUOUS SOUTH TO NORTH BUILDING/TRAINING
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SLOWS DOWN OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ALLOWING FOR MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
LINGER EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
POSSIBLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST...SO LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS MAY REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I SHOWED A DECREASING
TREND IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY
AS CLEARING/WAA IN THE WEST COULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS EAST OF FRONTAL
ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSLATES TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THEN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE NAM. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE SREF WAS DOING THE BEST ON
THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE NAM/CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS/SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JET IS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE CLOSED OFF PORTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH VERY SLOWLY WITH THE TROUGH LINE NEAR THE
EASTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST...THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN END.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
PROBLEMATIC DURING THIS TIME. EASTWARD PROGRESSION STOPS DURING THE
DAY WITH IT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. AGAIN DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE
EAST...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. VERY
HARD TO TIME THESE OUT WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES VERY LOW AND
THE TQ INDEX SUPPORTIVE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS. SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING. SO AT THIS TIME KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
THE MORNING. AM THINKING MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DUE TO THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER LOWERED THE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE IN
THERE.
UPPER LOW THEN STARTS BACKING UP TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS PUTS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND TO OCCUR. FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
SHOULD MAKE IT EASY FOR WHATEVER LIFT THERE IS TO START THE
PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO SHOW LIGHT QPF CONTINUING.
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENESIS
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN
COLD POOL REMAINS ON TOP OF US WITH THE NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE AND THE TQ INDEX SUPPORT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER
AM NOT SURE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOTALLY CATCHING HIS UNUSUAL
SCENARIO. SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SINKING ON TOP OF US...MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
THE CLOUD COVER...COOLED THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FROM WHERE
THEY WERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER ABOUT A DAY INTO THIS PERIOD
THE MODELS...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES...START DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IN FACT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THIS IS LOW.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN WOULD BELIEVE THAT THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE BIG
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE CANADIAN ARE MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE CANADIAN ACTUALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLUTION
FIELD.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WPC MANUAL PROGS TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND
SIDE IN THAT DIRECTION. SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT...WHICH IS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GAVE. SO MADE NO CHANGES OVERALL TO WHAT I WAS GIVEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT WITH
DECREASING COVERAGE AT KGLD AS DISTURBANCE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA
AROUND 09Z. BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES TOWARD 12Z PRODUCING
STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE SITES,
ESPECIALLY AT KMCK. THE STRATUS SHOULD BREAK UP BY LATE MORNING
WITH MORE SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
303 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast challenge early this morning is fog development.
While the 0Z NAM and CIRA-SIMWRF-FOG indicate some patchy dense fog
may form closer to sunrise over portions of east central KY, the 5Z
HRRR does not. Since the HRRR seems to have the better handle on
fog in the region (south central IL) and dewpt depressions are still
quite large (4-6 degrees) in some spots with no fog development
noted yet in our area, will pull back on the fog mention to patchy
and continue to monitor.
Other than that, sfc high pressure and weak ridging aloft will
remain in control of the region providing for mostly clear skies and
pleasant temps. Highs today should range from 79-84. Tonight`s
lows will vary through the 50s. Thurs looks to be slightly warmer
than today with highs ranging from 80-86.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
this weekend.
Friday into Sunday the synoptic pattern will feature a weak upper
level low retrograding westward from the NC coast. 23.00z guidance
is in reasonable agreement showing higher moisture with this feature
arriving late Friday with mid/high clouds on the increase east of I-
65. An east-west cross section through the area shows that the
deeper moisture with some lift is expected mainly across south-
central KY. The weak upper lift combined with a more moist air mass
characterized by PWATS approaching 1.5 inches may spark isolated to
scattered showers late Friday night into Saturday across south-
central KY. The increased cloud cover is likely to keep Saturday
morning readings in the low 60s and highs in the upper 70s to near
80. A stray, pop-up shower can`t be ruled out further north along
the Ohio River and into southern Indiana Saturday and Sunday, but
expected coverage and chances are rather low at this time.
Upper ridging begins to build across the region early next week as a
northern Plains trough takes shape. This will pull warmer air
northward into region Monday into Tuesday where highs could push the
mid 80s in places with mild mornings in the 60s. There is reasonable
consensus between the forecast models at this time showing a frontal
passage mid-week bringing a chance of showers or storms and then
cooler Canadian air in its wake around the first of October.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
High pressure will remain in control of the region with upper level
ridging moving in from the west. This should keep the terminals VFR
this period, with the exception of brief light fog at KBWG and
perhaps KLEX around daybreak this morning. Otherwise, expect a
steady NE wind and a few cu around 3-4K feet this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
217 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE
REGION. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KY AND THE BLUEGRASS
REGION AS WELL AS VALLEYS IN THE BIG SANDY REGION WERE RUNNING A
BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NW PART OF
THE CWA...WHILE THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS WERE
FINE TUNED AS WELL.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS HAVE BEEN FRESHENED UP
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SOME PATCHY DENSE
VALLEY FOG IS AGAIN ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR BORDER.
NOTHING HAS POPPED UP ON RADAR SO FAR...THOUGH...AND THE CU FIELD
IS RATHER SPARSE. AMPLE SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE CU ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE REPORTS NOTED. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S SEEN IN
THE EAST. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BENIGN
PATTERN CONSISTING OF FAST FLOW NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
AND GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SMATTERING OF ENERGY EAST OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION.
EVEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS SUCH...PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO WIN THE
DAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS
FOR WX SPECIFICS IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME IN THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO VALUES JUST ABOVE
LAST NIGHT/S LOWS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES TOWARD DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND
LAKES. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS AGAIN A NOTCH MILDER BUT WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
LATE NIGHT FOG.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL
GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES TO BETTER CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF AN
INVERSION ON OUR TERRAIN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS.
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS WELL. THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE TROPICAL LOWS
MEANDERING NORTHERLY OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
MVFR OR WORSE FOG THROUGH 13Z. IFR OR WORSE FOG LOOKS TO BE MORE
RESTRICTED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...AND HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 08 AND
12Z. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...SOME CUMULUS IN THE 3-5K FEET AGL
RANGE WILL BE SEEN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
133 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS CLOUDINESS TONIGHT POSSIBLE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY.
AT 1 PM...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN IOWA...AND NEBRASKA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT
CLOCKWISE AND SPREAD ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF
WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH LESS IMPACT OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOCAL WINDS FROM THE
EAST...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN. THERE IS EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS...SO FORECAST CERTAINTY IS
GOOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHEN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP.
DRY WEATHER WITH 500MB RIDGING LOOKS TO BE A SOLID FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGING...WHILE
THE ECMWF DRIVES A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON MONDAY...THE
ECMWF SWINGS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE AS THE GFS
CONTINUES THE RIDGING. BIG DIFFERENCES ARE IN PLAY BY
TUESDAY...WHERE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS A TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. THE GFS ON TUESDAY IS THE OPPOSITE.
BASED ON THE POOR CONTINUITY DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WAIT FOR MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE FLIPPING THE
FORECAST COOLER AND WETTER FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S EACH
DAY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE SLIDES A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
MODEL VARIABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
IT/S POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG BETWEEN 09-13Z BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP OUT OF THE TAFS...BUT SOMETHING
TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LUDINGTON BUOY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY OVER-PERFORMING AROUND 3 FEET THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIG SABLE POINT AND LUDINGTON SITES HAVE BEEN
REPORTING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH WHICH MAY BE AIDING
THE WAVE GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR
OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE.
EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
A LAND BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO DIMINISH. AFTER
THIS...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1133 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 936 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Area of showers and thunderstorms currently over western Iowa and
northwest Missouri will stay west of the area tonight as latest
runs of the RAP and HRRR are showing forcing and instability will
remain nearly stationary overnight. Otherwise going forecast looks
good and have made only minor changes for debris cloudiness
coming off the convection to our west. Overnight lows still look
reasonable.
Britt
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Look for quiet weather tonight with occasional clouds and
overnight lows in the mid 50s to around 60.
Kanofsky
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 213 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Quiet fall weather conditions are expected through at least the
end of the week and possibly through the weekend. Expect
temperatures to be around 5-8 degrees above average during each
forecast period with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. There are no strong signals for widespread
rainfall over the next 5 days.
A series of vort maxes was noted across the southwestern CONUS on
early afternoon water vapor imagery. These features will lift
into the central plains tonight and tomorrow, then linger in
place or perhaps even retrograde through the end of the week due
to weak steering flow aloft near the axis of a building upper
ridge. These features are currently forecast to remain west of
the CWA with little effect other than increased mid/high
cloudiness at times, although iso-sct SH/TS would be possible if
these features progress farther east than currently expected.
Forecast uncertainty increases by late this weekend into early
next week. There is poor run-to-run continuity between recent GFS
runs regarding a low pressure system moving through either Canada
(06z run) or the northwestern quadrant of the CONUS (12z run)
which then acts to break down the upper ridge. There is also poor
agreement between the GFS and ECMWF due to differences in each
model`s handling of a developing ridge over the western CONUS and
how that ridge affects the approaching low pressure system. This
low pressure system and its associated cold front could bring a
chance of rain showers to the area during the early or middle
part of next week, but confidence is too low to raise PoPs attm
due to the aforementioned model disagreements.
Kanofsky
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1129 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2015
Surface ridge extends from MI southwest into eastern MO. E-sely
surface winds will continue through the period, light late tonight
then only increasing to around 7 kts late Wednesday morning and
afternoon. Mainly just some high level cloudiness through the
forecast period. There may be a brief period of light fog in SUS
and possibly also CPS late tonight/early Wednesday morning.
Specifics for KSTL: Just some high level cloudiness through the
forecast period. Light e-sely surface wind late tonight will
increase to around 7 kts Wednesday afternoon, then become light
again Wednesday night.
GKS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
320 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.
THIS AIRMASS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY OVERRUN BY ATLANTIC TROPICAL
MOISTURE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL ABATING TREND
LATER IN THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. A SOLID LOW OVERCAST HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE EAST OF I-95...WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WEST OF I-95. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING INLAND BETWEEN 06-08Z...2-4 AM
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS DARLINGTON AND
BENNETTSVILLE. WHILE I`M NOT SHOWING PRECIPITATION THAT FAR INLAND A
SMALL POP WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
LATE...WITH NON-MEASURABLE SCATTERED SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE. DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS MULTIPLE CENTERS AS OBSERVED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS AVERAGE OUT THOSE SWIRLS TO A COMMON CENTER NEAR
32.0N AND 75.3W. WEST OF THE LOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE
INTENSE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES IS
PUNCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS GRADIENT
SHOULD ACTUALLY INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT... MAINTAINING A
HEALTHY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AT
THE BEACHES COULD EASILY REACH 30 MPH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT ONSHORE BY THE NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDS
UP THROUGH ABOUT 9000 FEET WITH A DRY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EVEN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS ONSHORE TONIGHT THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED IN THE VERTICAL EXTENT WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN DEEP SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE COAST I IMAGINE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TAKE
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE TOTALS.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SHOWS DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE 295K-300K
LAYER WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH CLOUDS AND A STEADY BREEZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURES...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MID LEVEL LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY ON
THURSDAY JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA BIG BEND. SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE
NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE BRINGS A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INTO THE
CAROLINAS. EASTERLY FLOW JUST ATOP THIS SURFACE LAYER WILL CAUSE
INCREASING OVERRUNNING OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND RISING RAIN CHANCES.
THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND A HEALTHY VORT
MAX ROTATES ASHORE AROUND THE FLORIDA LOW. THE MID LEVEL LOW WEAKENS
AND RETROGRADES ON FRIDAY BUT MANY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RAIN-MAKING
PLAYERS REMAIN IN PLACE I.E. MAINLY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVERRUNNING
THE NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WEDGE. LOOKING AT THE RH FIELDS OF THE
MODELS IT SEEMS THAT FRIDAY WILL OFFER A LONGER FETCH OF MOISTURE
OUT OF THE BAHAMAS WHEN COMPARED TO TUESDAY. FRIDAY APPEARS TO OFFER
UP NOT ONLY HIGHER POPS OVERALL BUT ALSO WHEN THE RAIN MAY BECOME
HEAVY AT TIMES, LASTING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERRUNNING RAINS DO NOT
SUFFER A DIURNAL CYCLE LIKE CONVECTION OFTEN DOES. IN FACT A
STRONGER AND/OR DEEPER NOCTURNAL SURFACE LAYER CAN BOLSTER THE
EFFECTS OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... MUCH OF THE ACTION MAY BE SHIFTING TO OUR
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS NOW SHOWING LOW DEVELOP OFFSHORE AND
MOVE NORTHWARD AND PUSHING THE EASTERLY FLOW ALONG WITH IT. RAIN
WILL LIKELY LAST INTO SATURDAY ALBEIT WITH LOWER QPF PROSPECTS AND
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LITTLE ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS
ATOP THE STALWART SURFACE WEDGE. IN FACT WITH LITTLE TO SCOUR OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST MAY REMAIN A
BIT MORE CLOUDY THAN TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER WEATHER AND JUST A TAD
ON THE COOL SIDE. SIMILARLY IT WILL BE HARD TO PROMISE A RAIN-FREE
DAY THOUGH MOST OF WHAT FALLS MAY NOT BE IN THE FORM OF MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AS OPPOSED TO TRACE AMOUNT SPRINKLES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED BASED ON THE PREVIOUS 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE FORECAST. THUS PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WORD HERE. MAIN
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONCENTRATE ON
THE BORDERLINE WINDY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WINDSPEEDS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. AND THE OTHER FLY IN THE
OINTMENT ARE THE LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.
MODELS TAKE A WEAK...TO MODEST AT BEST...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST AND DRIFT IT BACK OR RETROGRADE IT TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NE STATES...AND RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE 2 FEATURES COMBINED WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN
360-030 WIND DIRECTIONS AT 10 TO 20 KT SPEEDS...WITH HIER GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT AT TIMES. THE HIER END OF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTS...LOW CLOUDS WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD RESULTING IN MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS. PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BECOME THE FAVORABLE PCPN TYPE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8 FEET AT
THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOWARD THE UPPER END
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GUSTS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
REACHED 31 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...29 KNOTS
AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...25 KNOTS AT THE SUNSET BEACH
BUOY...AND 24 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY ANOTHER 3-5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...GIVING VERY SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE BEACHES. BASED
ON RECENTLY OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS AND AN 18Z RUN OF THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...OUR FORECAST SEAS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT...WITH
8-FOOTERS NOW EXPECTED IN THE 10-20 MILES ZONE EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT WIND MAKER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL KEEP THE FLOW
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. WITH WHATEVER IS LEFT OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
SUNKEN TO OUR SOUTH AND/OR DISSIPATED THE GRADIENT MAY NOT BE ALL
THAT PINCHED AND THUS MODERATE AT WORST. THIS LIKELY KEEPS WIND AND
SEAS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WELL TO OUR NORTH
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY PERHAPS KNOCKING A FEW KNOTS OFF THE WIND
SPEED. FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT MAY SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE
AREA MAKING FOR LIMITED VISIBILITY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS
THE PATTERN OVERALL IS VERY NON-PROGRESSIVE. THIS KEEPS THE HIGH
WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH ONLY SOME SENSE OF EASTWARD DRIFT. A WEAK
COASTAL TROUGH MAY DEVELOP AND LEND SOME COMPLICATION TO THE WIND
FORECAST AS ITS PRESENCE MAY VEER US TO MORE EASTERLY AND BRING
LOWER SPEEDS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/MAC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
126 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE CAROLINAS THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS WILL BEGIN DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE
COAST...BREEZY AND WET WEATHER DEVELOPING LATER THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST THIS EVENING. A SOLID LOW OVERCAST HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
MOST OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH SUNRISE EAST OF I-95...WITH CLOUDINESS INCREASING OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WEST OF I-95. THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS SHOW
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DEVELOPING INLAND BETWEEN 06-08Z...2-4 AM
WEDNESDAY...POTENTIALLY MAKING IT AS FAR WEST AS DARLINGTON AND
BENNETTSVILLE. WHILE I`M NOT SHOWING PRECIPITATION THAT FAR INLAND A
SMALL POP WILL BE MAINTAINED NEAR THE COAST FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP
LATE...WITH NON-MEASURABLE SCATTERED SPRINKLES ELSEWHERE. DISCUSSION
FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST HAS MULTIPLE CENTERS AS OBSERVED
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS AVERAGE OUT THOSE SWIRLS TO A COMMON CENTER NEAR
32.0N AND 75.3W. WEST OF THE LOW THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS QUITE
INTENSE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES IS
PUNCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS GRADIENT
SHOULD ACTUALLY INTENSIFY A BIT FURTHER OVERNIGHT... MAINTAINING A
HEALTHY NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE THROUGH THE NIGHT. WIND GUSTS AT
THE BEACHES COULD EASILY REACH 30 MPH.
ATLANTIC MOISTURE BROUGHT ONSHORE BY THE NORTHEAST WINDS EXTENDS
UP THROUGH ABOUT 9000 FEET WITH A DRY SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ALOFT.
EVEN AS MOISTURE ADVECTS ONSHORE TONIGHT THIS SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
SHOULD KEEP MOISTURE LIMITED IN THE VERTICAL EXTENT WHICH WILL
PRECLUDE ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OR EVEN DEEP SHOWERS.
AWAY FROM THE COAST I IMAGINE ANY PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TAKE
THE FORM OF SPRINKLES WITH LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE TOTALS.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS ACTUALLY SHOWS DOWNGLIDE THROUGH THE 295K-300K
LAYER WHICH WILL FURTHER LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...AT LEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
WITH CLOUDS AND A STEADY BREEZE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO LOW TEMPERATURES...STILL
ANTICIPATED TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE THIS PERIOD TO KICK
OFF AUTUMN IS MOUNTING CHANCES OF APPRECIABLE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIED
BY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES THIS PERIOD...PRESSING A DAMMING WEDGE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CAROLINAS. CONCURRENTLY A WESTERN ATLANTIC SURFACE LOW WILL
RETROGRADE AND FILL MOVING WSW ONTO THE CAROLINA COAST THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC OMEGA SHOULD
HELP SPUR GOOD CHANCES OF STRATIFORM RAIN THU AFTN/NIGHT.
SEVERAL MODERATE LOBES OF H7-H5 VORTICITY ARE FORECAST TO ROTATE
ONSHORE THURSDAY WHICH COULD SPAWN ISOLATED EMBEDDED CONVECTION.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BECOME ELEVATED BY THURSDAY WITH DEEP
E-SE WIND FLOW SURFACE TO 400 MB. IT APPEARS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY COME INTO PLAY
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP MAXIMUMS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THIS PERIOD AND MINIMUMS MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND AROUND 70
CLOSE TO THE COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A HEAVY RAINFALL
EVENT THIS WKND AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL WEATHER
RETROGRADES BACK TOWARDS THE COAST. THIS OCCURS IN RESPONSE TO AN
UPPER LOW WHICH IS WEAKENING AND DRIFTING WELL WEST AS IT GETS
TRAPPED WITHIN A COL NEAR A LARGE UPPER RIDGE. THE ECMWF LATCHED
ONTO THE HEAVY RAIN IDEA YESTERDAY...AND NOW THE GFS AND CANADIAN
ARE FOLLOWING SUIT. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WEAKER AND FURTHER
WEST MOTION OF THE UPPER LOW...WHICH IS ALLOWING THE `FLOOD GATES`
TO OPEN TO THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE OFFSHORE.
850MB U-WIND ANOMALIES REACH -4 SD`S (!) DUE TO THE EASTERLY WIND
(NEGATIVE SINCE WIND IS A VECTOR...THIS CAN STILL BE CONSIDERED A
POSITIVE SIGNAL) WHICH FLOODS MOISTURE RIGHT INTO THE CAROLINAS
WHERE PWATS CLIMB TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND WEAK UPPER DIFFLUENCE
DEVELOPS AS A JET ENTRANCE REGION BLOSSOMS TO OUR NORTH.
ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WHICH DRIVES
INCREASING WINDS...AND FORCES STRONGER ISENTROPIC LIFT AT 310 AND
315 K ATOP THE INLAND WEDGE. ALL THIS SUGGESTS PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE FRI..SAT...AND SUN...BEFORE A BACK DOOR FRONT
SINKS SOUTH AND THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS...CAUSING DRYING LOCALLY. WPC
QPF PAINTS 3-5" ACROSS THE EASTERN NC COAST...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER
AMOUNTS SW. SEE NO REASON TO MOVE AWAY FROM THESE FORECAST VALUES
FOR NOW BUT THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO REFINE THE FORECAST.
EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY STILL BE UNSETTLED BUT OVERALL WILL BE MUCH
DRIER.
TEMPS FRI-SUN WILL FEATURE LOW DIURNAL RANGES WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO AND LOWS JUST ABOVE. MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED BASED ON THE PREVIOUS 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE FORECAST. THUS PERSISTENCE WILL BE THE WORD HERE. MAIN
WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL CONCENTRATE ON
THE BORDERLINE WINDY CHARACTERISTIC OF THE WINDSPEEDS...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTS. AND THE OTHER FLY IN THE
OINTMENT ARE THE LOW MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.
MODELS TAKE A WEAK...TO MODEST AT BEST...AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE SE COAST AND DRIFT IT BACK OR RETROGRADE IT TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE NE STATES...AND RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE 2 FEATURES COMBINED WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENED
SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN
360-030 WIND DIRECTIONS AT 10 TO 20 KT SPEEDS...WITH HIER GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT AT TIMES. THE HIER END OF THE RANGE OF WIND SPEEDS
AND GUSTS WILL PRIMARILY OCCUR ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS CLOSER TO THE CAROLINA COASTS...LOW CLOUDS WILL
BECOME MORE DOMINANT AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF ISSUANCE
PERIOD RESULTING IN MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR CEILINGS. PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL ALSO BECOME THE FAVORABLE PCPN TYPE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND
REDUCED VSBY THURSDAY DUE TO INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY VFR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 PM TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE
FORECAST WITH THIS LATE EVENING UPDATE. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 8 FEET AT
THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY BUT SHOULD NOT BUILD SIGNIFICANTLY
HIGHER. DISCUSSION FROM 730 PM FOLLOWS...
WINDS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEEN RUNNING TOWARD THE UPPER END
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. GUSTS WITHIN THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE
REACHED 31 KNOTS AT THE OFFSHORE WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH BUOY...29 KNOTS
AT THE FRYING PAN SHOALS BUOY...25 KNOTS AT THE SUNSET BEACH
BUOY...AND 24 KNOTS AT WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH. MODEL CONSENSUS IS WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE BY ANOTHER 3-5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...GIVING VERY SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ALL THE WAY UP TO THE BEACHES. BASED
ON RECENTLY OBSERVED WAVE HEIGHTS AND AN 18Z RUN OF THE LOCAL SWAN
MODEL...OUR FORECAST SEAS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BY ABOUT A FOOT...WITH
8-FOOTERS NOW EXPECTED IN THE 10-20 MILES ZONE EAST OF CAPE FEAR.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...DIFFICULT MARINE CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS
MODERATE AND STRONG NE WINDS PREVAIL. STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL INTERACT WITH AN OFFSHORE
LOW DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST. NHC HAS 10 PERCENT
CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL ENTITY. CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH 6AM THU MAY NEED TO EVENTUALLY BE
EXTENDED BEYOND THIS FOR SEAS TO RECOVER. STRONGEST WINDS 20-30
KT TO PREVAIL WED THROUGH EARLY THU. MAXIMUM SEA HEIGHTS 5-7 FEET
WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TSTMS CAN BE EXPECTED AND
MARINERS SHOULD GET RADAR UPDATES BEFORE VENTURING OUT.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM TUESDAY...POOR MARINE CONDITIONS MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
AS PERSISTENT NE FLOW CONTINUES AND INTENSIFIES...ESPECIALLY ON
SATURDAY. TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL BACK UP TO THE COAST
THIS WKND...AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEDGE DOWN THE
COAST. THIS WILL CAUSE A TIGHTENING OF THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
WATERS...WITH NE WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS FRIDAY RISING TO 15-20 KTS
SATURDAY...BEFORE SLOWLY EASING DURING SUNDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE AN
AMPLIFYING NE WIND WAVE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WHEN
WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 4-5 FT AND THEN ONLY VERY SLOWLY DROP OFF ON
SUNDAY. SEAS FRIDAY WILL RISE SLOWLY FROM 2-4 FT EARLY TO 3-5 FT
LATE. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL LIKELY BECOME NECESSARY
SATURDAY...AND IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ADVISORY HEADLINES
MAY INSTEAD BE NEEDED THIS WKND.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH/MAC
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
321 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/
CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID
CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED
TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW
CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST.
OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION.
LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE
COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT.
HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS
SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT.
.THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.
.FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.
.SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
&&
.MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
822 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
Another mostly clear start to the day. Rivers look clean and any
morning fog has cleared out. Will remove morning wording for the fog
in a zone update. Otherwise, bumped temperature forecast up a
little. Readings were a couple degrees above what we had forecasted
yesterday, so basically went with a persistence forecast from
yesterday, calling for readings within a degree of yesterday`s highs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast challenge early this morning is fog development.
While the 0Z NAM and CIRA-SIMWRF-FOG indicate some patchy dense fog
may form closer to sunrise over portions of east central KY, the 5Z
HRRR does not. Since the HRRR seems to have the better handle on
fog in the region (south central IL) and dewpt depressions are still
quite large (4-6 degrees) in some spots with no fog development
noted yet in our area, will pull back on the fog mention to patchy
and continue to monitor.
Other than that, sfc high pressure and weak ridging aloft will
remain in control of the region providing for mostly clear skies and
pleasant temps. Highs today should range from 79-84. Tonight`s
lows will vary through the 50s. Thurs looks to be slightly warmer
than today with highs ranging from 80-86.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
this weekend.
Friday into Sunday the synoptic pattern will feature a weak upper
level low retrograding westward from the NC coast. 23.00z guidance
is in reasonable agreement showing higher moisture with this feature
arriving late Friday with mid/high clouds on the increase east of I-
65. An east-west cross section through the area shows that the
deeper moisture with some lift is expected mainly across south-
central KY. The weak upper lift combined with a more moist air mass
characterized by PWATS approaching 1.5 inches may spark isolated to
scattered showers late Friday night into Saturday across south-
central KY. The increased cloud cover is likely to keep Saturday
morning readings in the low 60s and highs in the upper 70s to near
80. A stray, pop-up shower can`t be ruled out further north along
the Ohio River and into southern Indiana Saturday and Sunday, but
expected coverage and chances are rather low at this time.
Upper ridging begins to build across the region early next week as a
northern Plains trough takes shape. This will pull warmer air
northward into region Monday into Tuesday where highs could push the
mid 80s in places with mild mornings in the 60s. There is reasonable
consensus between the forecast models at this time showing a frontal
passage mid-week bringing a chance of showers or storms and then
cooler Canadian air in its wake around the first of October.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
High pressure and weak upper level ridging will remain in control of
the region. This should keep the terminals VFR this period, with
the exception of brief light fog at KBWG this morning. Otherwise,
expect a steady NE wind and a few cu around 3-4K feet this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
640 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast challenge early this morning is fog development.
While the 0Z NAM and CIRA-SIMWRF-FOG indicate some patchy dense fog
may form closer to sunrise over portions of east central KY, the 5Z
HRRR does not. Since the HRRR seems to have the better handle on
fog in the region (south central IL) and dewpt depressions are still
quite large (4-6 degrees) in some spots with no fog development
noted yet in our area, will pull back on the fog mention to patchy
and continue to monitor.
Other than that, sfc high pressure and weak ridging aloft will
remain in control of the region providing for mostly clear skies and
pleasant temps. Highs today should range from 79-84. Tonight`s
lows will vary through the 50s. Thurs looks to be slightly warmer
than today with highs ranging from 80-86.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
this weekend.
Friday into Sunday the synoptic pattern will feature a weak upper
level low retrograding westward from the NC coast. 23.00z guidance
is in reasonable agreement showing higher moisture with this feature
arriving late Friday with mid/high clouds on the increase east of I-
65. An east-west cross section through the area shows that the
deeper moisture with some lift is expected mainly across south-
central KY. The weak upper lift combined with a more moist air mass
characterized by PWATS approaching 1.5 inches may spark isolated to
scattered showers late Friday night into Saturday across south-
central KY. The increased cloud cover is likely to keep Saturday
morning readings in the low 60s and highs in the upper 70s to near
80. A stray, pop-up shower can`t be ruled out further north along
the Ohio River and into southern Indiana Saturday and Sunday, but
expected coverage and chances are rather low at this time.
Upper ridging begins to build across the region early next week as a
northern Plains trough takes shape. This will pull warmer air
northward into region Monday into Tuesday where highs could push the
mid 80s in places with mild mornings in the 60s. There is reasonable
consensus between the forecast models at this time showing a frontal
passage mid-week bringing a chance of showers or storms and then
cooler Canadian air in its wake around the first of October.
&&
.AVIATION (12Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 639 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
High pressure and weak upper level ridging will remain in control of
the region. This should keep the terminals VFR this period, with
the exception of brief light fog at KBWG this morning. Otherwise,
expect a steady NE wind and a few cu around 3-4K feet this afternoon.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........AMS
Long Term.........ZBT
Aviation..........AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
949 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH FRIDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND RETROGRADES FROM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THE LOW THEN APPROACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC
FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WEEKEND...LIKELY STAYING OFF THE COAST AS IT
MOVES NORTHEAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 1330Z SHOWS LOW CLOUDS LINGERING IN
MANY VALLEYS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE UPDATED THE
SKY COVER GRIDS TO DEPICT THIS...AND LOOKING AT LATEST RAP UPDATES
EXPECT IT TO DISSIPATE BY NOON TIME.
NE WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTING CLOSE TO 15-20KTS IN MANY LOCATIONS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 WITH THE PEAK HEATING LATE THIS MORNING AND
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK WITH NO CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP THURSDAY INTO THUR NIGHT WITH THE HIGH
CONTINUING TO STRENGTHEN AND CONTROLLING THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
DRY CONDITIONS AND PERSIST NE FLOW IN PLACE. TEMPS SIMILAR TO WED
BOTH THURS AND THURS NIGHT.
00Z MODEL SUITE BEGINS TO DIFFER ON SOLUTIONS LATE THURS NIGHT AND
ON THRU FRI WITH THE NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE PCPN. THINKING
IT WILL TAKE TILL LATE THURS NIGHT...AND MORE SO AFTR
DAYBREAK...TO SATURATE THE VERTICAL COLUMN ENOUGH TO GENERATE
RAIN. INCRSG ELY FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION TO
AID IN THIS. MULTIPLE WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THRU THE
REGION...TRIGGERING SHOWERS BY FRI AFTN AND THRU FRI NIGHT.
NOTING THE ELY FLOW RESULTING IN TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...THINKING
THE HIGHER CHC FOR PCPN WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CAPPED POPS AT CHC FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS.
A RETURN TO THE ELY FLOW...OVERCAST SKIES...AND LIGHT PCPN MEANS
LOWER TEMPS. HIGHS CURRENTLY FORECASTED IN THE 70S...WITH SPOTS TO
THE WEST ONLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WHILE MODEL UNCERTAINTY REMAINS MODERATELY HIGH...UNSETTLED
WEATHER APPEARS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND AND MAYBE EVEN INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS MID-ATLANTIC RESIDES IN COOL SECTOR WITH
EASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN SFC HP CENTERED OVER NE STATES/CANADA AND
SFC LP OVER SE STATES.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE OFFERS MIXED SIGNAL FOR UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH 00Z GFS/GEFS/ECMWF OFFERING MANY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS.
GFS FAMILY MORE BULLISH WITH RESPECT TO QPF OVER THE AREA...AS MOST
MEMBERS STRENGTHEN SFC LOW SOONER AND TRACK IT CLOSER TO THE
COAST...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS...SOME MODERATE...OVER A LARGER AREA.
00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP LOW AND ONCE IT DOES KEEPS MAIN
IMPACTS TO OUR EAST...LEAVING US WITH ONLY AN OROGRAPHIC QPF SIGNAL.
EVEN WITHOUT PRECIP...IT LOOKS TO BE RATHER CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...AS EASTERLY FLOW ADVECTS LOW-LEVEL MARINE LAYER INTO THE
REGION...WHICH WILL KEEP HIGHS IN U60S/L70S EACH DAY.
NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE HAS IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS AND A WARMING TREND ENSUES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS THEN
THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. NW FLOW PERSISTS...10-15 KTS.
VFR THURS THRU THE FIRST HALF OF THURS NIGHT WITH CONTINUING NE
FLOW 5-10 KTS. WINDS BECOME ELY SECOND HALF OF THURS NIGHT...WITH
SUB-VFR CIGS RESULTING. TIMING STILL UNCERTAIN OF THE LOWER CIG
DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS THRU FRI MORNING...WITH
CONDITIONS POSSIBLY IMPRVG LATE IN THE DAY. ANY IMPROVEMENT WILL
BE SHORT LIVED WITH CIGS DROPPING FRI NIGHT BACK TO MVFR OR
POSSIBLY IFR.
POTENTIAL FOR SUB-VFR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH EASTERLY WINDS
TRANSPORTING MARINE LAYER WESTWARD AND RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...
SCA FOR TODAY FOR MOST OF CHESAPEAKE AND LOWEST TIDAL POTOMAC WITH WINDS
INCREASING. THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT THRU TONIGHT FOR THE MID
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC ZONES...THOUGH COULD SEE AS
WE ARE SEEING TONIGHT PERIODS OF SUB- SCA CONDITIONS.
THE SCA CONTINUES THURS NIGHT AND MOST LIKELY WILL NEED TO BE
EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY. LIGHT RAIN PSBL ON ALL THE WATERS FRIDAY AS
WELL.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY PROBABLE SATURDAY THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY...AS LOW APPROACHES AND EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS STRONG. WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED...BUT SUB-SCA...SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ALTHOUGH
TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE LOW COULD LEAD TO WINDS REMAINING NEAR SCA
THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ST MARYS...CALVERT
AND ANNE ARUNDEL...ST MARYS FOR THIS MORNINGS AND TONIGHTS HIGH
TIDE...AND THE OTHER TWO FOR TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ANOMALIES HAVE DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING WITH WEAKENING IN
THE NE FLOW. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED...WITH INCRSG NE
FLOW TODAY INTO TONIGHT AIDING IN PUSHING ANOMALIES BACK UP TO
BETWEEN HALF A FOOT TO A FOOT IN SOME SPOTS. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ARE ON THE RISE AS WELL. WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE WINDS
THRU THURS NIGHT...AND COMBINING WITH THE INCRSG ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE...MINOR FLOOD LVLS MAY BE REACHED DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE AT
SITES ALONG THE WESTERN CHESAPEAKE BAY...MAINLY BALTIMORE AND TO
THE SOUTH...AND THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL POTOMAC THRU
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ018.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR MDZ014.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR MDZ017.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ531-
538>542.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ542.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ533-534-537-
543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ532.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SEARS
NEAR TERM...LEE
SHORT TERM...SEARS
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...SEARS/MSE/LEE
MARINE...SEARS/MSE/LEE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1039 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE
LAKE...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO DRY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT WILL THEY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. MODIS
IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID
50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW
POINTS...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/
CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID
CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED
TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW
CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST.
OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION.
LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE
COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT.
HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS
SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1038 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.UPDATE...
NO CHANGE TO CURRENT FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT IN THE EAST COMING OFF THE
LAKE...HOWEVER THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS TO DRY. BROKEN MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL WI BUT WILL THEY WILL BE LIMITED
TO SCATTERED OVER SOUTHEAST WI DUE TO DRY SOUTHEAST FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
SOME MODELS ARE INDICATING FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
THINKING IT IS NOT LIKELY SINCE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO DRY. MODIS
IMAGERY SHOWING WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S NEAR THE SHORE TO MID
50S NEAR THE OPEN WATER WHICH IS WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF FORECAST DEW
POINTS...NOT SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION NORTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN LOW AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS. OTRW...WEAK
CONVERGENCE ALONG TRANSITIONING BOUNDARY/REMNANTS OF FRONT/
CONTRIBUTING TO SCT-BKN STRATOCU/ALTOCU OVER CENTRAL WI. THESE MID
CLOUDS BRUSHING FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF CWA. SC MAY EXPAND NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...BUT GENERAL DECREASING TREND OF 925-850RH EXPECTED
TODAY FROM BOTH HRRR AND RAP. ENUF LINGERING LOW LEVEL RH TO ALLOW
CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH AND WEST.
OTHER CONCERN IS UPSTREAM CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM PLAINS CONVECTION.
LIKELY THAT FIRST BATCH OF CIRRUS KNOCKING ON DOOR OF WEST
CENTRAL WI WL LIKELY AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI THIS MRNG BEFORE
COMPLETELY THINNING. MORE UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WRN IA/MN
EXPECTED LATER TODAY WHICH WILL GENERATE ANOTHER SWATH OF CIRRUS
LIKELY TO AFFECT PARTS OF SRN WI LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
POTENTIAL CLOUDS AND MORE SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW WL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW LEVELS REACHED ON TUE.
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WL RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVANCING INTO SRN WI FOR TONIGHT.
HENCE HELD BACK ON FOG MENTION TONIGHT DESPITE MOST MESO MODELS
SHOWING DENSE FOG DEVELOPING OVER ERN CWA AFT MIDNIGHT. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS SLIGHTLY STRONGER TONIGHT...AND AIR MASS CONTINUES TO
DRY WITH EACH WARM...MILD DRY DAY. ONE FLY IN OINTMENT IS LIGHT
NORTHEAST FLOW POSSIBLY BRINGING IN MOISTER MARINE LAYER.
THEREFORE CONFIDENCE LOWER ON FOG THREAT IN ERN CWA LATER TNGT.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
500 MILLIBAR FLOW REGIME SHOWS A RATHER CHAOTIC VORT REGIME
WITHIN THE OVERALL WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT ALL IN ALL THE DRY
LOW LEVEL E-SE FLOW WITH SFC/850 ANTICYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN THE DRY
LOOK. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ARE ALSO SHOWING A VRY DRY AIRMASS. THE GFS
SHOWS MORE MOISTURE AOA 15K FEET. NAM EVEN DRIER.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...HIGH
QUIET AND MILD PATTERN PERSISTS. SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER AWAY
SETTING UP MORE OF A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW. WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO
BE SUNDAY AS 925 TEMPS GET CLOSE TO 20C.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW
THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER THAN THE PRIOR RUN...AND KEEPS
SRN WI DRY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE 00Z GEM LOOKS A LOT LIKE THE
ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO FRONTAL SPEED BUT THE 00Z GFS IS STILL ABOUT
A DAY BEHIND THE GEM/ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE GFS SHOWS 925 TEMPS ON
MONDAY/MONDAY EVENING INTO THE LOW/MID 20S CELSIUS WHILE THE
ECMWF IS ALREADY SHOWING CAA THIS PERIOD. SO STILL SOME BIG
DIFFERENCES TO GET RESOLVED WITH RESPECT TO FROPA TIMING...BUT
SUPERBLEND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE SLOWER SOLUTION AND THE ECMWF
IS INDEED TRENDING SLOWER BUT STILL A WIDE GAP REMAINS. GFS
SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPE SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE
OUT THUNDER MENTION AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...SOME LIGHT FOG MAY AFFECT TAF SITES EARLY
THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY A VFR PERIOD EXPECTED WITH MORE
SE WINDS. SOME CONCERN OVER THREAT OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FOG IN ERN
AREAS LATER TONIGHT AS DESCRIBED ABOVE.
MARINE...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN ZONE /LMZ643/ DUE
TO COOLER LAKE WATER LOCATED IN THIS AREA AS SHOWN BY MODIS IMAGERY
FROM AROUND 16Z/TUE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WNDS WL BECOME MORE E
TO NE AND MAY ALLOW THE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING AND POSSIBLY AGAIN TONIGHT OVER MORE OF THE NEARSHORE
AREA.
MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MARQUARDT
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...COLLAR
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...
SAT-TUE... MID LVL SHORTWAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL COMBINE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NE GOMEX TO COLLAPSE WEAK MID LVL RIDGING ALONG
AND W OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY AS THE SFC RIDGE SLOWLY CREEPS INTO THE
NW ATLC. THE INVERTED TROF OVER THE ERN GOMEX/CAROLINA COAST WILL
SLOWLY LIFT UP ERN SEABOARD BUT WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
RIDGE IN A TEXTBOOK REX-BLOCKING PATTERN. DEEP LYR MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN ACRS THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODEL SOUNDING
INDICATE PWAT VALUES HOLDING BTWN 1.8"-2.2" THRU THE REMAINDER OF
THE FCST.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO LOOK PARTICULARLY WET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AS SEVERAL MID LEVEL VORT IMPULSES EJECT FROM THE WESTERN CARIB/SE
GOMEX...ECMWF MAINTAINS A WEAKER AND LESS ORGANIZED VORT FIELD.
CURIOUSLY THOUGH...POPS ON THE THE ECMWF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CAME IN
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER THAN THE GFS. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SFC
LOW DVLPG IN THE VCNTY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE N CENTRAL GOMEX INTO TUE. GFS IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON
ITS POTENTIAL THAN THE EURO MODEL...BUT NEVERTHELESS WILL BE AN AREA
TO WATCH.
&&
.AVIATION...AS SCT SHRA`S/ISOLD TSRA`S SPREAD INLAND THIS AFTN
EXPECT TEMPO MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. NERLY WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST AND ARE LIGHTER SOUTHWARD WHERE THE PGRAD IS WEAKER.
OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND THIS EVENING...BUT MAY
STILL HAVE ISOLD-SCT SHRA ACTIVITY CONTINUING OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY
AND ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THU
MORNING...ESP ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
&&
.MARINE...AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH WEAK AREA OF CIRCULATION OFF OF THE VOLUSIA
COAST PROVIDING OCNL SHRA/ISOLD TSRA OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS...AS WELL AS GUSTY NERLY WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 6 FT
WELL OFFSHORE THE VOLUSIA COAST. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-
5 FT ELSEWHERE OFFSHORE SOUTHWARD FROM THE CAPE. WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TONIGHT TO 10 KTS OR LESS AREAWIDE.
...PREVIOUS EXTENDED MARINE DISCUSSION...
THU-SUN...WEAK INVERTED TROF EXTENDING FROM THE ERN GOMEX UP THE
CAROLINA COAST IS TRAPPED BLO A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE AXIS
BLANKETING MOST OF THE CONUS E OF THE MS RIVER VALLEY. PRESENCE OF
THE TROF WILL KEEP THE LCL PGRAD DISRUPTED...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
GENTLE ERLY BREEZE THRU THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WIND DIRECTION WILL
VARY BTWN E/NE NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO E/SE SOUTH OF THE INLET
AS THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROF OSCILLATES BTWN HI AND LOW...BUT
LARGELY AOB 10KTS. PERSISTENT ERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE
WAVE HEIGHTS...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT INTO THE WEEKEND.
COMBINED SEAS 3-4FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5FT OFFSHORE THRU FRI...UP TO
6FT IN THE GULF STREAM. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 3-4FT AREAWIDE BY
DAYBREAK SAT...CONTG THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...THE ST. JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR /ASTF1/ CONTINUES TO
REMAIN JUST ABOVE 2.44 FT...VERY CLOSE TO THE ACTION STAGE OF 2.5
FEET. THE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED INTO THIS
WEEK JUST BELOW ACTION STAGE. HOWEVER IF DOWNSTREAM FLOW BECOMES
IMPEDED AN INCREASE TO ACTION STAGE MAY OCCUR. A HYDROLOGIC
STATEMENT /RVSMLB/ WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS LOOKS LIKELY TO HAPPEN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 73 87 71 85 / 30 50 40 60
MCO 73 88 73 88 / 20 60 30 60
MLB 73 87 72 86 / 10 50 30 60
VRB 74 87 71 85 / 20 60 30 60
LEE 72 88 73 87 / 20 60 30 60
SFB 73 89 73 87 / 20 60 30 60
ORL 74 88 74 88 / 20 60 30 60
FPR 72 86 72 85 / 30 60 30 60
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
GRIDS...SEDLOCK
IMPACT WEATHER/AVIATION....VOLKMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
707 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
INLAND WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK JUST
OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
23/21Z SURFACE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DUAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH A WELL-DEFINED
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE FIRST
LOW...ESTIMATED AT 1012 HPA...WAS POSITIONED ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH A SECOND LOW...ESTIMATED AT 1010
HPA...MEANDERING 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WITH THE RAP AND H3R BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR SIGNAL WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF MEAN...HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE UPDATED POP FORECAST SHOWS POPS
MAXING OUT 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS INLAND THROUGH SUNRISE. DO EXPECT A QUICK
EXPANSION OF RAIN AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/ALABAMA LINE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NEAR THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST WILL RESULT IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR OVER TWO INCHES MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH RAIN CHANCES...SO
RAISED POPS FOR ALL AREAS...BUT STILL MAINTAINED A DECENT GRADIENT
FROM 70 TO 80 PERCENT NORTH TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANY
AREAS WHERE RAIN PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HIGHS COULD BE
HELD DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN
OUT AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
WHEN THE WEDGE OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN. THE 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...THE 12Z GFS ON SATURDAY
AND THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW IT PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BIAS OF THE MODELS IS TO BREAK
DOWN THE WEDGE TOO SOON...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS WHICH KEEPS HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN
SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S....ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM LIKELY
NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN WILL DECREASE WITH
CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY FOR ALL AREAS...AGAIN HIGHEST NORTH TO
LOWEST SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE
NEBULOUS AS THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH
UP ACROSS CANADA. THE LATE WEEK UPPER LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND THE MAIN PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MODEST RIDGE BECOMING
CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE AT THE SURFACE AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LOWERING POPS THANKS TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING FOR ASCENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DISPLAY A MODEST WARMING
TREND...BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCHS...VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS
FROM 09Z ON. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP A FEW HOURS BEFORE
SUNRISE THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP BY MID-MORNING...BUT
SUSPECT THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY RAIN MOVING IN FROM OFF
THE ATLANTIC AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. VSBYS WILL DROP AS WELL AS LIGHT RAIN OVERSPREAD THE
AREA...BUT WILL LIMIT VSBYS TO MVFR FOR NOW FROM 18Z ON. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE POCKETS OF LOWER VSBYS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION THIS FAR OUT.
KSAV...VFR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...ALTHOUGH CIGS WILL BEGIN TO
LOWER TO MVFR BY SUNRISE. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE MVFR
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DRAWS CLOSER
TO THE COAST. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN COULD PASS OVER
THE TERMINAL BY MID-MORNING BEFORE CLEARNING OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE
IS ONLY MODEST AT BEST THIS FAR OUT. WILL NOT INTRODUCE PREVAILING
-RA JUST YET.
EXTENDED AVIATION...HIGH CHANCES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT PERSISTS TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HARBOR
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR SO OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE HARBOR THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND
AS A COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES CLOSE TO THE
COAST...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS FROM A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GRADUALLY BE DROPPED ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED TIDES WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE LATE DAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.
RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
554 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
INLAND WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK JUST
OFFSHORE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
23/21Z SURFACE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED DUAL LOW
PRESSURE CENTERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WITH A WELL-DEFINED
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE ANCHORED ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE FIRST
LOW...ESTIMATED AT 1012 HPA...WAS POSITIONED ABOUT 115 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH A SECOND LOW...ESTIMATED AT 1010
HPA...MEANDERING 90 MILES NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL. THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT WHILE THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED LOWS RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF
ISENTROPIC ASSENT UNTIL AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION SO FAR OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. WITH THE RAP AND H3R BOTH SHOWING A SIMILAR SIGNAL WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LATEST SREF MEAN...HAVE LOWERED POPS QUITE A BIT
WITH THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE. THE UPDATED POP FORECAST SHOWS POPS
MAXING OUT 20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS INLAND THROUGH SUNRISE. DO EXPECT A QUICK
EXPANSION OF RAIN AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE
SOUTHERN GEORGIA/ALABAMA LINE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT COMBINED
WITH A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND NEAR THE
GEORGIA/FLORIDA COAST WILL RESULT IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND OR OVER TWO INCHES MOVING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...AN INLAND WEDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE...THE PROXIMITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO
THE COAST. MODELS HAVE TRENDED HIGHER WITH RAIN CHANCES...SO
RAISED POPS FOR ALL AREAS...BUT STILL MAINTAINED A DECENT GRADIENT
FROM 70 TO 80 PERCENT NORTH TO 30 TO 40 PERCENT SOUTHWEST. DUE TO
THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE AIR...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. ANY
AREAS WHERE RAIN PERSISTS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...HIGHS COULD BE
HELD DOWN INTO THE LOWER 70S.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN AND FLATTEN
OUT AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL TRY TO WORK INTO THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SATURDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW LIFTS
NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ABOUT
WHEN THE WEDGE OF INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN. THE 12Z NAM
SHOWS IT BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ON FRIDAY...THE 12Z GFS ON SATURDAY
AND THE 12Z ECMWF AND CANADIAN SHOW IT PERSISTING THROUGH
SATURDAY. DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE BIAS OF THE MODELS IS TO BREAK
DOWN THE WEDGE TOO SOON...GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN MODELS WHICH KEEPS HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. IF THE WEDGE BREAKS DOWN
SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE WELL INTO THE 80S....ESPECIALLY BY
SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM LIKELY
NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN WILL DECREASE WITH
CHANCE POPS BY SATURDAY FOR ALL AREAS...AGAIN HIGHEST NORTH TO
LOWEST SOUTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BECOME QUITE
NEBULOUS AS THE PRIMARY BELT OF WESTERLIES REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH
UP ACROSS CANADA. THE LATE WEEK UPPER LOW WILL DISSIPATE AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD AND THE MAIN PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MODEST RIDGE BECOMING
CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY
FEATURE AT THE SURFACE AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OVERALL...IT
LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF LOWERING POPS THANKS TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY
FORCING FOR ASCENT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DISPLAY A MODEST WARMING
TREND...BEING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CEILINGS HAVE BEEN TEETERING ON MVFR TODAY. MVFR CEILINGS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO KCHS THIS EVENING AND PERSIST INTO THU
MORNING. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINAL LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO THURSDAY. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE TRICKIER AT KSAV THIS
EVENING WHERE WE THINK VFR WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEFORE DROPPING TO MVFR. SOME RAIN IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME IFR CEILINGS AT EITHER SITE LATE
TONIGHT AND THU MORNING THOUGH THE FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A GREATER IFR RISK.
EXTENDED AVIATION...HIGH CHANCES FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE
OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT PERSISTS TONIGHT WITH NE WINDS
20-25 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 KT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HARBOR
WINDS WILL REMAIN 15 KT OR SO OVERNIGHT. MAINTAINED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE HARBOR THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND
AS A COASTAL TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES CLOSE TO THE
COAST...RESULTING IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY WEAKENING
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS FROM A LONG FETCH OF
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL GRADUALLY BE DROPPED ON
THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY MORE TRANQUIL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ELEVATED TIDES WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE LATE DAY HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY.
RIP CURRENTS...AN ENHANCED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
226 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING INTO NORTHCENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. STRONG
PV HEIGHT ANOMALY IS OVER OUR CWA ASSOCIATED WITH SW QUADRANT OF
CLOSED LOW. CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF
I-70 AND MID LEVEL ROTATION ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF TROUGH HAS AIDED
IN THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG AXIS OF STEEP LAPSE RATES/MODERATE
CAPE.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE ALONG SURFACE TROUGH THIS ACTIVITY...POSSIBLY DEVELOPING
INTO NW KANSAS. HI RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY REMAINING
ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 ALONG TROUGH AXIS. TREND SHOULD BE
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO TRANSITION TO THE SOUTH AS TROUGH AXIS SLIDES
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL STABILIZE OVER OUR CWA. SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN CWA MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER THOUGH THE
NIGHT AS MOISTURE/MID LEVEL ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND THE
MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW IN NEBRASKA. CAPE AXIS OF ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS WITH MARGINAL HAIL/WIND THREAT.
SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE WITH EFFECTIVE SHEER BELOW 20KT...SO SEVERE
THREAT IS LIMITED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHER CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EAST. WINDS WILL DECREASE BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES AND WITH CLEARING SKIES COMBINE WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS AT LEAST THE WESTERN PARTS
OF OUR CWA. CONFIDENCE IN A DENSE FOG EVENT IS LOWERED BY SHIFT IN
WINDS TO THE NW AROUND 12Z...WHICH COULD BRING DRIER AIR AND
BETTER BL MIXING. IN ANY CASE WITH SIGNAL DEPICTED BY SREF
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/RAP CONFIDENCE WAS HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
PATCHY/AREAS MENTION TO MOST OF CWA.
THURSDAY...AS CLOSED LOW MEANDERS EASTWARD AND MEAN TROUGH AXIS
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST SUBSIDENCE AND A DEEP DRY MID LEVEL AIR MASS
WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA. BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON A LOBE OF
VORTICITY MAY ROTATE AROUND BACK EDGE OF CLOSED LOW INTO OUR
CWA. CONSIDERING THE DRY NATURE OF THE AIR MASS...CONFIDENCE IN
MEASURABLE PRECIP WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON DESPITE SOME FORCING ALOFT AND STEEP LAPSE RATES. THERE
IS A SPLIT BETWEEN GUIDANCE REGARDING TEMPS AS SOME GUIDANCE SHOWS
REINFORCING CAA BEHIND UPPER LOW OVERSPREADING OUR CWA...WHILE
OTHER GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WAA AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BREAK
DOWN FROM THE WEST. I BUMPED UP TEMPS IN THE WEST (EASTERN
COLORADO) TO THE MID 80S...WITH HIGHS ELSEWHERE GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S/NEAR 80F. THIS ISN`T FAR FROM MOST CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE LINGERING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION INTO
FRIDAY...STRATUS/FOG THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...AND HOW MUCH DO
TEMPERATURES RECOVER. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER
THE PACIFIC WHICH THEN TRANSLATES TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THEN A RIDGE BEING PUSHED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAM STARTED OUT BEST. AT MID
LEVELS...THE GFS/UKMET/ECMWF WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE
CANADIAN/NAM. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS VERY SIMILAR TO 24 HOURS AGO. 70H LOW MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND IS JUST TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST
OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF IS FURTHER NORTH THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY.
NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WITH NOT A LOT BUT
ADEQUATE MID LEVEL MOISTURE. AT THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW MOVES
CLOSER...A SHORTWAVE AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS ROTATES THROUGH
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODELS ARE STILL PRODUCING SOME
VERY LIGHT QPF. THINK THERE WILL BE SOME RAINFALL BUT WITH VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS.
MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT FROM YESTERDAY IN BRINGING/INCREASING
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA IN THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. SO HAVE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED FOG. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT COVERAGE COULD BE GREATER WITH DENSE FOG INDICATED.
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN THOUGH 70H LOW WEAKENS...IT CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. AGAIN
MODELS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE ECMWF...IS INDICATING A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE ALONG WITH SOME CAPE AROUND. TQ INDEX ALSO INDICATES
INSTABILITY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LIGHT QPF SHOWN BY OUTPUT AS WELL AS WPC WHICH MATCHES THE ABOVE
REASONING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD END UP BEING SPRINKLES BUT
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME KIND OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. SO PUT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE STRATUS AND FOG BURNING OFF BY LATE
MORNING. AM A LITTLE BIT CONCERNED WITH THAT SINCE THE WIND FIELD
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SHIFT TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. WILL END FOG BY MID MORNING BUT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON
LONGER. BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND UNFAVORABLE WINDS LOWERED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE.
AIR MASS LOOKS LIKE IT STABILIZES RAPIDLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE MAIN LIFT HAVING ALREADY MOVED THROUGH THE AREA. SO FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD DRY WITH HIGH SILENT POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOMETHING COULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING BUT IT
SHOULD END QUICKLY. RETURN FLOW BEGINS DURING THE NIGHT WITH A
LITTLE MORE WIND EXPECTED WITH THE EAST SEEING THE LEAST AMOUNT.
MODELS NOT AS HIGH WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF FOG FOR NOW.
SATURDAY...RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION. THINK SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM
DUE TO A LACK OF DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND AND THAT THE FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH. ADJUSTED THE MAX TEMPERATURES
DOWN SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOWING A LOT OF
DISAGREEMENT IN HOW TO HANDLE THE EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH AND
WESTERN/CENTRAL RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ARE STILL THE FURTHEST
WEST AND MORE CUTOFF WITH THE GFS STILL PUSHING THE TROUGH FURTHER
TO THE EAST WHILE RETAINING THE CUTOFF. ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS SLOWER
TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. CONSIDERING THE FLOW PATTERN...CONSISTENT
ECMWF/CANADIAN AND THE SLOWER GFS...THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER
SOLUTION LOOKS THE BEST. THE WPC MANUAL PROGS ECHO THIS AS WELL.
SAYING THAT IT LOOKS LIKE DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS FOR THIS PERIOD AND LEFT WHAT THE CRH_INIT
GAVE ME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
MVFR CIGS SHOULD LIFT EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SATELLITE
ALREADY SHOWING CLEARING SW OF KGLD AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE
REGION. OBS INDICATE SIMILAR TRENDS AT KMCK...THOUGH 2500 KFT CIGS
MAY LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON DUE TO PROXIMITY OF
BETTER MOISTURE AXIS. MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM HAS SHIFTED
NORTH...AND BETTER SHOWER COVERAGE HAS MOVED EAST. I STILL EXPECT
SHOWERS TO BE POSSIBLE AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK...HOWEVER BEST
CHANCES ARE STILL AT KMCK THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH MAIN UPPER LOW
JUST TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.
STRATUS/FOG SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER 09-10Z AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...WITH CONDITIONS
IMPROVING AFTER 15Z. BEST BL MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ALONG KS/CO
BORDER AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN IFR CIGS/VIS AT KGLD. I COULD
SEE LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS...HOWEVER THERE
COULD BE JUST ENOUGH MIXING AROUND 12Z WITH SHIFT IN BL FLOW TO
THE NW TO LOWER CONFIDENCE IN DENSE FOG/LOWER CIGS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
120 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
...Updated Aviation Discussion...
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 820 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
Another mostly clear start to the day. Rivers look clean and any
morning fog has cleared out. Will remove morning wording for the fog
in a zone update. Otherwise, bumped temperature forecast up a
little. Readings were a couple degrees above what we had forecasted
yesterday, so basically went with a persistence forecast from
yesterday, calling for readings within a degree of yesterday`s highs.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Thursday)...
Issued at 250 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast challenge early this morning is fog development.
While the 0Z NAM and CIRA-SIMWRF-FOG indicate some patchy dense fog
may form closer to sunrise over portions of east central KY, the 5Z
HRRR does not. Since the HRRR seems to have the better handle on
fog in the region (south central IL) and dewpt depressions are still
quite large (4-6 degrees) in some spots with no fog development
noted yet in our area, will pull back on the fog mention to patchy
and continue to monitor.
Other than that, sfc high pressure and weak ridging aloft will
remain in control of the region providing for mostly clear skies and
pleasant temps. Highs today should range from 79-84. Tonight`s
lows will vary through the 50s. Thurs looks to be slightly warmer
than today with highs ranging from 80-86.
.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
The main forecast concern in the long term is precipitation chances
this weekend.
Friday into Sunday the synoptic pattern will feature a weak upper
level low retrograding westward from the NC coast. 23.00z guidance
is in reasonable agreement showing higher moisture with this feature
arriving late Friday with mid/high clouds on the increase east of I-
65. An east-west cross section through the area shows that the
deeper moisture with some lift is expected mainly across south-
central KY. The weak upper lift combined with a more moist air mass
characterized by PWATS approaching 1.5 inches may spark isolated to
scattered showers late Friday night into Saturday across south-
central KY. The increased cloud cover is likely to keep Saturday
morning readings in the low 60s and highs in the upper 70s to near
80. A stray, pop-up shower can`t be ruled out further north along
the Ohio River and into southern Indiana Saturday and Sunday, but
expected coverage and chances are rather low at this time.
Upper ridging begins to build across the region early next week as a
northern Plains trough takes shape. This will pull warmer air
northward into region Monday into Tuesday where highs could push the
mid 80s in places with mild mornings in the 60s. There is reasonable
consensus between the forecast models at this time showing a frontal
passage mid-week bringing a chance of showers or storms and then
cooler Canadian air in its wake around the first of October.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2015
High pressure and weak upper level ridging will remain in control of
the region. This should keep the terminals VFR this period, with
the exception of brief light fog at KBWG again Thursday morning.
Otherwise, expect a steady NE wind and a few cu around 3-5K feet
this afternoon and starting up again late Thursday morning.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......RJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
359 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHT WITH DREARY CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOL TODAY ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN STRONG OFF THE
LAKE...GUSTING TO 25 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES. WARMER TOMORROW...BUT SKIES
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.
FORECAST WORKED OUT FAIRLY WELL TODAY WITH THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP ABOUT WHERE WE WERE EXPECTING IT. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS
TAPERED OFF FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY ONGOING AND ANOTHER WAVE OF WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT. WHILE FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS
FAIRLY LOW DUE TO STORM MOTION...SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM TONIGHT DUE TO THE EXTREMELY
MOIST NATURE OF THE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.0 TO
1.4 ALREADY EXIST ACROSS THE AREA PER RAP/MESOANALYSIS AND EVEN
HIGHER PWATS ARE ABOUT TO BE ADVECTED INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. CURRENT RAP INDICATES PWATS WILL RISE TO
1.4 TO 1.6 INCHES OR HIGHER FROM THE TWIN PORTS AND INTERSTATE 35
CORRIDOR EAST ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE SOUTH SHORE
OF WISCONSIN IS ESPECIALLY PRIMED FOR POTENTIAL FLOODING AFTER HEAVY
RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON BROUGHT AROUND TWO INCHES TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES. WHILE MOST OF THIS RAINFALL
SIMPLY RUNS OFF INTO LAKE SUPERIOR...SATURATED GROUNDS COULD LEAD TO
MINOR FLOODING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT...BUT
REMAIN GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE. SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLY ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO LEECH LAKE
AREA WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THURSDAY THINGS WILL WIND DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE
DISSIPATES AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WEAK WARM FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATE...THOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH THE DAY RESULTING IN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...AND
WITH THE MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE IT MAY NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET
RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING. TEMPS A LITTLE WARMER DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION
TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE DAY...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD TO MID 60S TO NEAR 70 ELSEWHERE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WILL BRING
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE MAY BE
SOME SHOWERS THAT LINGER OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY AND WE INCREASED
THEM AND THEY MAY HAVE TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE SHOWING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOW TO DEPART. HIGHS SHOULD BE FROM
THE UPPER SIXTIES TO LOWER SEVENTIES.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
AND A COLD FRONT WELL WEST ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL CREATE A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.
THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE WESTERLY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION AND SENDING SEVERAL SHORTWAVES THROUGH AS WELL. WE HAVE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
WILL STILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES THEN FALL INTO THE SIXTIES TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
IFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD IN TO MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAP CPD/S INDICATE
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM
AND RAP...WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA LOOK TO SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CLOQUET...DULUTH...HIBBING LOOK TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TONIGHT. THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER QUICKLY
DIMINISHES. REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
TAFS THAT IFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 51 62 53 69 / 70 70 10 10
INL 48 63 51 71 / 40 30 20 20
BRD 55 68 54 74 / 50 50 10 10
HYR 55 70 51 74 / 60 70 10 10
ASX 53 67 51 70 / 70 60 10 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
110 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE INCOMING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY WITH PERSISTENT RAIN LEADING
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE GUSTY E/NE WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY AND TONIGHT KEEPING
CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER AND MORE AUTUMN-LIKE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.
THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD SW TO NE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PRECIP
SHEILD. THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY
WEAK AS THE JET STREAM REMAINS NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
THE COMBINATION OF SLOW STORM MOTION AND A LARGE PUSH OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...PWATS AROUND 1.5
INCHES...ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG- DURATION
HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT TODAY AND TOMORROW. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING. HOWEVER...SINCE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS WILL BE WEAK TO
VERY MARGINAL AND THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER A RELATIVELY LONG
PERIOD OF TIME AND SURFACE/GROUND CONDITIONS ARE STILL ON THE
DRIER END OF THE SPECTRUM AND CAPABLE OF ABSORBING MOST OF THE
RAIN EFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO KEEP UP WITH THE PRECIP...NOT EXPECTING
WIDESPREAD FLOODING CONCERNS. THE REGULAR NASCENCE FLOODING CAN
BE EXPECTED IN THE USUAL LOCATIONS.
THE BULK OF THIS RAIN WILL FORM ALONG A NEWD EXTENSION OF AN
INVERTED TROUGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH SD/NEB/MINNESOTA. AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER S/ERN
ONTARIO AND ACT TO CREATE A LOCALIZED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS WRN
LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A STRONG E/NE WIND TO
DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...AND LAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS WIND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MUCH COOLER AROUND THE
TWIN PORTS AND THE NORTH SHORE TODAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY TOP OUT IN
THE 50S...WITH 60S FURTHER INLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TONIGHT AS CLOUD COVER PERSISTS WITH THE WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO FALL APART THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE
UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES AND STARTS TO KICK THE ENTIRE SYSTEM EWD.
MORNING RAIN WILL BREAK UP INTO SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON
ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 23 2015
THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL HAVE BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY...WITH A PATTERN
MORE REMINISCENT OF SUMMER. HEIGHTS WILL LATER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A COLD FRONT DROP ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT...WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING A STRONGER
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
INDICATES A LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THAT TIME
FRAME...BUT CATCHES UP BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO SOME EXTENT. OVERALL
THE TREND WILL BE FOR AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY SOMEWHAT OF A COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LOOKING AHEAD BEYOND THAT...THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A
MASSIVE RIDGE DEVELOPING IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS FROM FRIDAY INTO MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN COOL INTO
THE 60S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 40S AND 50S. FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY) ISSUED AT 105 PM
CDT WED SEP 23 2015
IFR CIGS HAVE SPREAD IN TO MOST OF THE AREA...AND RAP CPD/S INDICATE
EXPANDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS DO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS OFF THE NAM
AND RAP...WITH THE LOWEST CEILINGS POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FA LOOK TO SEE MORE
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
CLOQUET...DULUTH...HIBBING LOOK TO SEE MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
TONIGHT. THUNDER REMAINS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS WE
PROGRESS THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER QUICKLY
DIMINISHES. REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH LATEST GUIDANCE AND PREVIOUS
TAFS THAT IFR CIGS/VIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 52 64 53 / 80 80 70 10
INL 59 49 63 51 / 30 60 40 20
BRD 61 55 71 54 / 80 70 50 10
HYR 66 57 70 52 / 60 70 50 10
ASX 61 56 68 51 / 70 70 50 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
631 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST
WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THEN WEST FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...NO REAL CHANGE TO THE WEATHER PATTERN
THAT HAS GRIPPED THE REGION THIS WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH
INTO THE CAROLINAS IS PRODUCING A DAMMING/WEDGE SURFACE PATTERN
WHILE A WEAK/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE IS SLOWLY
RETROGRESSING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. AS BEEN THE THE CASE THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS THE MOST DIFFICULT PORTION OF THE FORECAST
CONCERNS DETERMINING THE LOCATION, TIMING, AND AMOUNTS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE THE PAST 3
DAYS IN FORECASTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN NC. THUS WILL
DECREASE POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS TO 20-30% AS RADAR INDICATES
WHAT LITTLE PRECIPITATION THERE IS WAS LOCATED MAINLY OFFSHORE.
WILL MAINTAIN CURRENT 30-50% POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE TO
MONITOR PRECIPITATION TRENDS BUT THESE MAY BE OVERDONE AND MAY
NEED TO BE DECREASED WITH THE 10 PM UPDATE. L0W TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S FAR WEST TO LOWER 70S COAST
WITH OVERCAST SKIES AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM WEDNESDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE GFS/NAM12 AND
ECMWF REGARDING HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF PRECIPITATION TOMORROW AS
SURFACE LOW AS SURFACE LOW MOVES WEST AND MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY PULLS NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. GOOD MOISTURE
FLUX AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...PRIMARILY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY. CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD AVERAGE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF INCH.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...A COMPLEX FORECAST CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN NC
BRINGING WET AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEKEND.
THURSDAY NIGHT...MDLS SHOW OFFSHORE CSTL TRF BECOMING LESS
DEFINED AND SHIFTING TOWARD THE COAST. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL
CONT TO STREAM ACRS THE REGION WITH PRECIP WTR VALUES NEAR 2
INCHES. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALL AREAS AS MDLS SHOW GOOD QPF OVER
THE REGION WITH INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. CLOUDS AND
PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
INLAND AND LOWER 70S BEACHES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWER...SOME HEAVY EXPECTED INTO
SUNDAY AS DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION WITH SFC TRF IN
THE AREA AND WEAK DIFL ALOFT. CONT LIKELY POPS THRU SAT NIGHT AND
SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL WILL BE POSS IN SPOTS ESPCLY COAST.
SOME DIFF IN MDLS CONT LATER IN WEEKEND WITH GFS QUICKER TO LIFT
SFC LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE N OF THE REGION SUNDAY. FOR NOW CONT
PREV FCST WITH CHC POPS SUNDAY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS STEADY THRU SUNDAY WITH MILD
LOWS IN 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DGR
RANGE.
MONDAY THRU WED...LOW PRES PROGGED TO MOVE NE OF THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH A DRYING TREND AS THE DEEP MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. TEMPS WARM
SLIGHTLY WITH GREATER INSOLATION EXPECTED AND EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING VARIABILITY AT THE INLAND
(ISO/PGV) TAF SITES THIS EVENING FROM MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WHILE
MVFR CEILINGS PERSIST AT OAJ AND EWN. LATER TONIGHT THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO EAST
AND MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS. MOIST OF THE NUMERICAL AVIATION
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT (AFTER
06Z) WHILE THE NARRE AND HRRR GUIDANCE ARE AT ODDS WITH THIS. DUE
TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN A MVFR CEILING FORECAST AND
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ON THURSDAY WE ARE EXPECTING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MVFR CEILINGS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...POOR FLYING THRU MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH LEAD TO BOUTS OF SHRA WITH PROLONGED
PDS PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY...WITH SOME IFR
EXPECTED. MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER SUN AND ESPCLY MON
WITH LESS SHRA AND PROB MORE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 630 PM WEDNESDAY...GUSTY N/NE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER THE NORTHEAST. THE LOW SHOULD SLOWLY
START TO DRIFT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT DECREASING
THE GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH A BIT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
PER LOCAL SWAN/NWPS...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED.
CURRENTLY...WINDS ARE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO
10 FEET. AS WITH THE WINDS...SEAS WILL SUSBIDE A BIT ON THURSDAY
BUT SHOULD STILL REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE AT MOST
LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM WED...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN POOR BOATING CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM AS PERSISTENT MODERATE TO OCNLY STRONG NE/E
WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS WILL DOMINATE. THE TWO MAIN FEATURES ARE
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL BE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH AND AN
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST THAT WILL PRODUCE
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE TO THE SOUTH
OF ENC ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, WITH WINDS 15-25KT WITH SEAS 4-8
FT HIGHEST NORTH.
MODELS ARE STILL NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
THIS WEEKEND. GFS QUICKLY LIFTS LOW OVER AND N OF REGION SUNDAY
WHILE ECMWF KEEPS IT TO THE S THRU SUNDAY WHICH LEADS TO LONGER
PERIOD OF STRONGER ONSHORE WINDS. CONT PREV FCST WITH MODERATE
ONSHORE FLOW CONT INTO SUNDAY. SEAS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 8 TO 11
FT CNTRL AND N AND 4 TO 6 FEET S THRU THE WEEKEND.
MDLS DIFFER A BIT WITH WIND DIR EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT AGREE ON
DIMINISHING WINDS...MAINLY FROM A NRLY DIR. AS WINDS DIMINISH
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 4 TO 6 FT N AND 3 TO 5 FT S LATER MON.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 325 PM WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 6 TO 9 FOOT SURF ALONG WITH A HIGH THREAT OF
RIP CURRENTS AND POSSIBLE BEACH EROSION.
UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND...BUT ROUGH SEAS AND STRONG NE
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
OCEANSIDE IMPACTS, SOUNDSIDE LOCATIONS VULNERABLE TO STRONG NE
WINDS COULD SEE MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES, WHICH WOULD BE
EXACERBATED BY THE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AS HOPEFULLY CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NCZ103.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ130-131-
135.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...JME/CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/JME
MARINE...RF/JME/CTC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...CTC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
440 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR LOOP DEPICTED TWO UPPER LEVEL LOWS...ONE STALLED
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND THE OTHER MOVING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN DAKOTAS. THE LATTER SYSTEM WAS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. A PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED FROM WY INTO THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN. WRAPAROUND LOW CLOUDS EXITED THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE.
MODERATE CU FORMED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST WY. TEMPERATURES
WARMED INTO THE 70S TO AROUND 80 THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
WERE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.
THE 12Z NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROGGING THE UPPER
RIDGE TO EXPAND INTO THE NORTH AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
DOMINATE THE FRONT RANGE AND HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SHORT TERM WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NAM...SREF AND
HRRR INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TONIGHT
AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...SO HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG EAST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK
WITH WINDS GENERALLY 8 TO 15 KT DURING THE DAY AND 4 TO 7 KT AT
NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD IN A RATHER
STAGNANT PATTERN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY WILL GET SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD A BIT SUNDAY AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BUT WILL STILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER INFLUENCE FOR THE CWA. A WEAK COOL FRONT MAY SAG SOUTH ACROSS
THE PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY BUT THE BULK OF COOLER AIR BEHIND
IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A BIT OF UPSLOPE
PCPN POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL MONDAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 436 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVEL ATMOSPHERE WILL GIVE
US ANOTHER CHANCE AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. BEST LOCATIONS LOOK TO BE KAIA AND KCDR
WHERE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE HAS THE LOW CLOUDS COMING IN AROUND 05Z
AT KAIA AND SHORTLY THEREAFTER AT KCDR. DO NOT THINK KCYS WILL GO
DOWN AS HARD AS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WESTWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 23 2015
NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR AREAS WEST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM TEMPERATURES...BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES. WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LOW HUMIDITIES WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS. ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RANGE
FROM 25 TO 35 PERCENT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES WILL
RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...TO GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TO THE EAST.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...RE
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ