Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/22/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION...WITH ISOLD TSRA...WILL AFFECT WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH 23Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARE
DRIFTING EAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
AOA 10-15KFT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 4-8KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. PREDAWN
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 60S
CENTRAL...TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE LOWER 50S.
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO SLOW
DOWN POPS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT POPS ARE TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NMM SHOWING PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NATURAL STATE. INCREASED CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
KEPT POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRIES
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...AND AS THAT COMES
ONSHORE...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS IT APPROACHES AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 77 58 79 57 / 20 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 82 64 85 62 / 40 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 72 57 79 57 / 30 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 62 84 61 / 40 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 62 83 60 / 30 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 84 64 85 60 / 40 30 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 78 61 84 60 / 50 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 57 79 58 / 20 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 56 79 55 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 62 84 58 / 30 30 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 61 82 59 / 40 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 79 59 80 57 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 81 60 82 56 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARE
DRIFTING EAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
AOA 10-15KFT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 4-8KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. PREDAWN
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 60S
CENTRAL...TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE LOWER 50S.
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO SLOW
DOWN POPS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT POPS ARE TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NMM SHOWING PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NATURAL STATE. INCREASED CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
KEPT POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRIES
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...AND AS THAT COMES
ONSHORE...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS IT APPROACHES AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 77 55 79 57 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 83 61 84 62 / 30 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 74 56 79 59 / 20 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 61 84 61 / 30 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 61 83 61 / 20 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 62 85 61 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 79 59 83 59 / 40 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 55 79 58 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 78 55 80 56 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 60 84 59 / 20 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 59 82 60 / 30 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 80 56 80 57 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 80 58 82 58 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...226
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
436 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. PREDAWN
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 60S
CENTRAL...TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE LOWER 50S.
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO SLOW
DOWN POPS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT POPS ARE TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NMM SHOWING PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NATURAL STATE. INCREASED CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
KEPT POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRIES
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...AND AS THAT COMES
ONSHORE...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS IT APPROACHES AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 77 55 79 57 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 83 61 84 62 / 30 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 74 56 79 59 / 20 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 61 84 61 / 30 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 61 83 61 / 20 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 62 85 61 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 79 59 83 59 / 40 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 55 79 58 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 78 55 80 56 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 60 84 59 / 20 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 59 82 60 / 30 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 80 56 80 57 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 80 58 82 58 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...226
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
UPDATED TO ADD POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS BASED ON
RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUN. THE NAM SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN DEVELOPING LATER TODAY OVER
SOME OF THE MTNS AND THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT ACRS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR IS DRY THRU ABOUT 00Z AND THEN IT SHOWS SOME ISOLD
PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE ERN PLAINS WHICH THEN EXITS THE STATE AROUND
07Z. MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW TONIGHT SO WL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL. OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACRS THE PLAINS...WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS. ALAMOSA AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE WL START BUILDING BACK OVR THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WL BRUSH NE AND E CENTRAL CO IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT HAS DEFINED SEPTEMBER IN
SE CO IS HERE TO STAY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS. POPS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NIL...EVEN FOR THE MT AREAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA REGION ON TUE AND INTO THE DESERT SW...IN A
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MOVE IT THROUGH NW CO ON WED. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SW MTS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL OVER AZ...SO FLASH FLOODING
RISK SHOULD BE LESS...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM THEN SHEARS OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION FOR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS
ON WED. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WILL SEE A SLIGHT FRONTAL PUSH ON THU BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO ITS SW-NE TRAJECTORY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WX WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY...AS A PACNW SYSTEM STARTS TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS DELIVERS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE NOT VERY WIDE...AND
SHOW A GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SO...NOT MUCH HOPE FOR ANY INTERESTING WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE A GOOD TIME
TO GET OUTSIDE PROJECTS DONE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND REGIMES
EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL NY AND APPROACHING EASTERN NY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CNTRL NY...AND IS
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND SINCE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED FOR A WHILE
NOW...WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME WIND GUSTS BTWN 25-30 KTS WITH THE
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WEAKENING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND PORTIONS OF SRN VT...AND
EXTENDED LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH CHC
TO SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION 2 AM AND 6 AM. EXPECTING LOWS WILL STILL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BREEZY DAY WITH SUN IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY A CLEAR
SKY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHES OF FROST IN THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST BUT
STILL CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPPER
ENERGY BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AREA COULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF PRODUCING SOME
PERIODS OF FILTERED SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND ANY
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WOULD BE VERY SLOW AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OCCUR...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH 40S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...BUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND A COOL DOWN TO SEASONAL READINGS IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IS IN CONTROL
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE MIDWEST WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK TO LITTLE COLD ADVECTION WITH
THIS FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LOWS TUE NIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS ON WED...AND M60S TO NEAR
70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...FAIR AND PLEASANT LATE SEPT WX CONTINUES
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER SRN CANADA...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WEAK MID AND UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SW QUEBEC ACCORDING TO THE GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.
THE GFS TRIES TO FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...THE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES WITH LOWS SIMILAR EACH NIGHT WITH U40S TO L50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
FRI INTO SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF TO THE
SOUTH THAT THE GFS NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST...AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED AGAIN. WE KEPT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TACONICS...AND MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM N-CNTRL ONTARIO WITH COOLER TEMPS. H850
TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C ON FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FALL TO +3C TO
+8C ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND TEMPS SHOULD FINISH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL ONLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT EXPECT SOME STRATOCU FOLLOWED BY CLEARING ON SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING SKC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE THE S TO SW AT 5-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM KALB NORTHWARD DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW BTWN 06Z-11Z...AND
THEN THE NW TO N AT 8-12 KTS AT 11Z-14Z. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY
BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM VALUES RH OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
15 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1235 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL NY AND APPROACHING EASTERN NY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CNTRL NY...AND IS
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADRIONDACKS AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND SINCE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED FOR A WHILE
NOW...WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME WIND GUSTS BWTN 25-30 KTS WITH THE
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WEAKENING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND PORTIONS OF SRN VT...AND
EXTENDED LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH CHC
TO SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION 2 AM AND 6 AM. EXPECTING LOWS WILL STILL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BREEZY DAY WITH SUN IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY A CLEAR
SKY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHES OF FROST IN THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST BUT
STILL CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPPER
ENERGY BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AREA COULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF PRODUCING SOME
PERIODS OF FILTERED SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND ANY
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WOULD BE VERY SLOW AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OCCUR...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH 40S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...BUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND A COOL DOWN TO SEASONAL READINGS IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IS IN CONTROL
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE MIDWEST WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK TO LITTLE COLD ADVECTION WITH
THIS FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LOWS TUE NIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS ON WED...AND M60S TO NEAR
70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...FAIR AND PLEASANT LATE SEPT WX CONTINUES
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER SRN CANADA...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WEAK MID AND UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SW QUEBEC ACCORDING TO THE GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.
THE GFS TRIES TO FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...THE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES WITH LOWS SIMILAR EACH NIGHT WITH U40S TO L50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
FRI INTO SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF TO THE
SOUTH THAT THE GFS NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST...AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED AGAIN. WE KEPT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TACONICS...AND MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM N-CNTRL ONTARIO WITH COOLER TEMPS. H850
TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C ON FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FALL TO +3C TO
+8C ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND TEMPS SHOULD FINISH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 02Z-
06Z FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS KPOU. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PREDOMINATELY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO 03Z. THE BEST CHC OF MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS WITH
THE SHOWERS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF. TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED BTWN
02Z-06Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP USED FROM
03Z-06Z AT KALB. A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KPOU BTWN 06Z-09Z.
EXPECT CIGS TO RECOVER TO VFR LEVELS AT 3.5-6 KFT AGL. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY FROM 11Z-14Z FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ERN
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE THE S TO SW AT 5-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM KALB NORTHWARD DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW BTWN 06Z-11Z...AND
THEN THE NW TO N AT 8-12 KTS AT 11Z-14Z. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM VALUES RH OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
15 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS...AND
ANOTHER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT GENERALLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WEST TO NEAR THE N NC MOUNTAINS AND SW ACROSS E TENN AND
N ALA.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR N AND NW
MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND NAM DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH INDICATES POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD
BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS IN A WEDGE-LIKE
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
GFS GENERALLY DISPLAYED A FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS DIFFERED WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO
SHOW MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS POPS. THE MOS WAS CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THREAT OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT...LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FOG CONCERNS AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HOWEVER...PREMISE FOR SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST REDUCES
CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS...AND
ANOTHER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT GENERALLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WEST TO NEAR THE N NC MOUNTAINS AND SW ACROSS E TENN AND
N ALA.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR N AND NW
MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND NAM DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH INDICATES POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD
BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS IN A WEDGE-LIKE
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
GFS GENERALLY DISPLAYED A FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS DIFFERED WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO
SHOW MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS POPS. THE MOS WAS CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...LEADING
TO POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HOWEVER...PREMISE
FOR SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the
ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into
Missouri. A small shortwave on sat imagery to the northwest
forecast in the HRRR to pass to the north this evening. Dominant
high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night.
Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not much to discuss in
terms of weather, but will mention the potential for very patchy
light fog/vis drops. However, leaving it out of the grids as the
afternoon dewpoints are dropping several degrees as the llvls mix
out in the day time heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Seeing a consistent signal in the 12z models for a dry week in the
extended forecast across central and southeast IL.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest
across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half
of this week. The southwest end of the surface ridge looks to remain
across central and southern Illinois during that time, keeping
seasonable and dry conditions across our forecast area.
A cold front will approach NW Illinois on Tuesday, reaching eastern
Iowa by 00z Wed/7pm Tues. The front is projected to stall out in
that general area for the rest of the week, as a ridge remains
entrenched across the eastern states due to the blocking effects
of a low pressure system off the central East Coast.
The end result will be some increase in cloud cover for our areas
west of I-55 for the last half of the week, but plenty of dry air
above and below the cloud layer will keep precip at bay.
Low pressure progressing from the SW states will move northeast
along the front later this week, reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into Friday. That will bring another period
of increased cloud cover for our western counties, but no rain.
That low is expected to dissipate on Friday as it passes by to the
north of IL, with expanding high pressure across Illinois in it`s
wake. That will keep dry conditions in the forecast through next
weekend.
As for temperatures this week, the chilly air will remain across our
area into Tuesday. However, southerly flow will develop ahead of the
approaching cold front, bring warmer air to our area the rest of the
week. Highs will reach back into the lower 80s from Wednesday to
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
High pressure and VFR through the forecast. Light easterly winds
today, lighter and variable overnight under the ridge. DEC and CMI
are on the edge of a cu field but should lose them around sunset.
Skies clear overnight and not going to worry too much about vis
reductions for this issuance with the guidance trending a couple
degrees warmer. Will wait to see how much, if any, llvl moisture
mixes out this afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Drier conditions can be expected through Monday afternoon as
short range models indicate a developing upper level ridge of high
pressure building northeastward into the Western High Plains
during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability will hinder any precip chances across western Kansas
through late Monday afternoon. The warming trend for low
temperatures will continue tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
near the surface continues to draw warmer air northward into the
area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower and mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Warmer
high temperatures are likely Monday as well with warm air
advection persisting across western Kansas. The NAM and GFS show
H85 temperatures climbing up into the mid 20s(C) across central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across
portions of southwest Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
in portions of central Kansas.
Increasing low level moisture combined with light southeast winds
may lead to fog development across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late tonight where surface dewpoints are
projected to climb into the 60s(F). However, it is too early to
determine how widespread or dense any potential fog may be with
the HRRR showing virtually no signal of stratus or fog development
before midnight. A lack of any residual moisture may limit how
low visibilities get, so will insert patchy fog based on this
uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium
range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of
high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
Although a prevailing southerly flow will draw some moisture back
north into the area, a lack of significant instability combined
with a persistent weak flow aloft will limit any precip chances
through Tuesday night. However, precip chances will return
to western Kansas Wednesday as an upper level trough of low
pressure is projected to lift northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains while accompanied by a
feed of tropical moisture. Although less than robust, the flow
aloft is expected to strengthen somewhat while a developing
surface low lee of the Rockies continues to enhance a southerly
flow across western Kansas. This will occur ahead of a zone of
increasing surface convergence associated with the lee side
trough axis. Chances for precip will linger into Thursday as
the upper level shortwave is slow to lift further to the
northeast.
Little change is expected to the general air mass across western
Kansas Monday into Tuesday, so look for highs to reach the lower
to mid 90s(F) again Tuesday afternoon. Although the southerly
flow will persist through Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
precip will likely keep high temperatures down a bit Wednesday
afternoon. Same can be said for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Mainly clear skies this evening will promote radiational cooling
causing temperatures to approach dewpoints. Low level moisture will
also continue to push into central and western Kansas. Areas of
mist/fog and stratus are expected to develop at the terminals mainly
after 06z as IFR to LIFR conditions are expected by 09-10z especially
at Hays and Dodge City. At this time, these conditions look a little
less likely at Garden City. Cigs and vsbys will be improving to
VFR by 15-17z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 58 90 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 58 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 60 88 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
P28 62 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Drier conditions can be expected through Monday afternoon as
short range models indicate a developing upper level ridge of high
pressure building northeastward into the Western High Plains
during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability will hinder any precip chances across western Kansas
through late Monday afternoon. The warming trend for low
temperatures will continue tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
near the surface continues to draw warmer air northward into the
area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower and mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Warmer
high temperatures are likely Monday as well with warm air
advection persisting across western Kansas. The NAM and GFS show
H85 temperatures climbing up into the mid 20s(C) across central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across
portions of southwest Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
in portions of central Kansas.
Increasing low level moisture combined with light southeast winds
may lead to fog development across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late tonight where surface dewpoints are
projected to climb into the 60s(F). However, it is too early to
determine how widespread or dense any potential fog may be with
the HRRR showing virtually no signal of stratus or fog development
before midnight. A lack of any residual moisture may limit how
low visibilities get, so will insert patchy fog based on this
uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium
range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of
high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
Although a prevailing southerly flow will draw some moisture back
north into the area, a lack of significant instability combined
with a persistent weak flow aloft will limit any precip chances
through Tuesday night. However, precip chances will return
to western Kansas Wednesday as an upper level trough of low
pressure is projected to lift northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains while accompanied by a
feed of tropical moisture. Although less than robust, the flow
aloft is expected to strengthen somewhat while a developing
surface low lee of the Rockies continues to enhance a southerly
flow across western Kansas. This will occur ahead of a zone of
increasing surface convergence associated with the lee side
trough axis. Chances for precip will linger into Thursday as
the upper level shortwave is slow to lift further to the
northeast.
Little change is expected to the general air mass across western
Kansas Monday into Tuesday, so look for highs to reach the lower
to mid 90s(F) again Tuesday afternoon. Although the southerly
flow will persist through Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
precip will likely keep high temperatures down a bit Wednesday
afternoon. Same can be said for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail through
Monday morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 58 90 63 93 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 58 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 58 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 60 88 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
P28 62 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Drier conditions can be expected through Monday afternoon as
short range models indicate a developing upper level ridge of high
pressure building northeastward into the Western High Plains
during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability will hinder any precip chances across western Kansas
through late Monday afternoon. The warming trend for low
temperatures will continue tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
near the surface continues to draw warmer air northward into the
area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower and mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Warmer
high temperatures are likely Monday as well with warm air
advection persisting across western Kansas. The NAM and GFS show
H85 temperatures climbing up into the mid 20s(C) across central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across
portions of southwest Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
in portions of central Kansas.
Increasing low level moisture combined with light southeast winds
may lead to fog development across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late tonight where surface dewpoints are
projected to climb into the 60s(F). However, it is too early to
determine how widespread or dense any potential fog may be with
the HRRR showing virtually no signal of stratus or fog development
before midnight. A lack of any residual moisture may limit how
low visibilities get, so will insert patchy fog based on this
uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail through
Monday morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 60 90 64 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 82 58 90 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 85 58 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 83 60 88 64 / 10 0 0 0
P28 79 62 90 65 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level shortwave trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly developing
across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure is slowly developing across extreme eastern
Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail through
Monday morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 60 90 64 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 82 58 90 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 85 58 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 83 60 88 64 / 10 0 0 0
P28 79 62 90 65 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
908 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level shortwave trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly developing
across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure is slowly developing across extreme eastern
Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR to possibly MVFR category stratus was expanding across south
central Kansas this morning, and just east of the KDDC terminal.
Cielings are much higher than the RAP model suggested. As surface
moisture advection continues to increase this morning, it is
possible lower cielings may work farther north into KS from
western Oklahoma. At this time, the uncertainty is quite high, and
we will not carry any MVFR/IFR conditions in the TAFs, but
continue to monitor the trends. The NAM was simulating Fog
development along the nose of the moisture axis later tonight,
however this is not yet reflected in the GFS LAMP guidance, and
we will not include it in the terminal yet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 59 88 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 82 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 84 57 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 83 59 86 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 79 61 88 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
703 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR to possibly MVFR category stratus was expanding across south
central Kansas this morning, and just east of the KDDC terminal.
Cielings are much higher than the RAP model suggested. As surface
moisture advection continues to increase this morning, it is
possible lower cielings may work farther north into KS from
western Oklahoma. At this time, the uncertainty is quite high, and
we will not carry any MVFR/IFR conditions in the TAFs, but
continue to monitor the trends. The NAM was simulating Fog
development along the nose of the moisture axis later tonight,
however this is not yet reflected in the GFS LAMP guidance, and
we will not include it in the terminal yet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 59 88 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 82 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 84 57 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 82 59 86 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 79 61 88 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Active weather will be occurring just south of our region today
across western Oklahoma, but some of the low level moisture will
push into southwest Kansas. At this time, it appears that IFR/MVFR
ceilings in stratus at GCK and/or DDC are at a low enough
probability to keep out of the TAF, but the time frame from 12-15z
today will need to be watched, as the NAM and GFS models suggest
mean RH in the 1000-3000 foot range will be around 75 to 90 percent.
Should a ceiling develop, it will scatter out in the 18-21z time
frame. South winds will prevail at around 11 to 15 knots. Late
tonight into early Monday morning, abundant low level moisture will
be in place for potential fog formation across much of the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 58 89 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 80 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 83 56 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 91 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 81 59 87 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 78 60 87 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
124 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Much drier conditions are likely through early next week as medium
range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
developing across the Desert Southwest Sunday and building
northeastward into the Western High Plains Monday and Tuesday.
Combined with a weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability across the high plains, dry conditions are likely to
persist through at least Tuesday night. A general warming trend is
likely to continue through at least Tuesday as well due to a
prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas while the upper
level ridging mentioned earlier builds in across the Western High
Plains. Highs will climb back up into the lower to mid 90s(F)
across southwest and portions of central Kansas Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Active weather will be occurring just south of our region today
across western Oklahoma, but some of the low level moisture will
push into southwest Kansas. At this time, it appears that IFR/MVFR
ceilings in stratus at GCK and/or DDC are at a low enough
probability to keep out of the TAF, but the time frame from 12-15z
today will need to be watched, as the NAM and GFS models suggest
mean RH in the 1000-3000 foot range will be around 75 to 90 percent.
Should a ceiling develop, it will scatter out in the 18-21z time
frame. South winds will prevail at around 11 to 15 knots. Late
tonight into early Monday morning, abundant low level moisture will
be in place for potential fog formation across much of the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 58 89 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 80 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 83 56 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 91 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 81 59 87 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 78 60 87 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SWRD THROUGH THE REGION AND DO
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRANSITIONS EWRD ACROSS OK INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE
OBSERVED FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED FOR SOME TIME
NOW...ALLOWING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
AVIATION...
ALL IS QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. IR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWING 8-10KFT CEILINGS ACROSS AR INTO N LA WITH
THIS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA INTO NE TX. WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND/OR NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE STARTED MOST TERMINAL WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH VCTS (18Z-21Z) AND CONTINUING THAT TREND INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 4-8KTS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE
WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEWPOINTS FALL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE...AND THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA. TRICKY TEMP GRADIENT INFLUENCED NOT ONLY BY THE EAST
TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
IN COOLER AIR. DEEP POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INDICATED...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO RUC ANALYSIS. WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES IN LOW INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TO
FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER
RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...DESPITE AFTN HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND QUESTIONABLE AS NO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR
AREA. HOWEVER..LARGE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES MAY BEGIN TO
ASSIST IN MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LVL E-SE FLOW FOR OUR AREA.
/VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10
MLU 90 63 89 63 / 20 50 30 10
DEQ 83 62 86 63 / 40 50 10 10
TXK 84 63 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 85 62 86 62 / 30 50 30 10
TYR 92 68 91 71 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 92 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 10
LFK 94 69 92 68 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
ALL IS QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. IR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWING 8-10KFT CEILINGS ACROSS AR INTO N LA WITH
THIS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA INTO NE TX. WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND/OR NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE STARTED MOST TERMINAL WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH VCTS (18Z-21Z) AND CONTINUING THAT TREND INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 4-8KTS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE
WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEWPOINTS FALL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE...AND THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA. TRICKY TEMP GRADIENT INFLUENCED NOT ONLY BY THE EAST
TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
IN COOLER AIR. DEEP POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INDICATED...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO RUC ANALYSIS. WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES IN LOW INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TO
FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER
RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...DESPITE AFTN HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND QUESTIONABLE AS NO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR
AREA. HOWEVER..LARGE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES MAY BEGIN TO
ASSIST IN MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LVL E-SE FLOW FOR OUR AREA.
/VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10
MLU 90 63 89 63 / 20 50 30 10
DEQ 83 62 86 63 / 40 50 10 10
TXK 84 63 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 85 62 86 62 / 30 50 30 10
TYR 92 68 91 71 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 92 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 10
LFK 94 69 92 68 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
VII/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE
WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEWPOINTS FALL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE...AND THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA. TRICKY TEMP GRADIENT INFLUENCED NOT ONLY BY THE EAST
TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
IN COOLER AIR. DEEP POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INDICATED...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO RUC ANALYSIS. WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES IN LOW INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TO
FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER
RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...DESPITE AFTN HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND QUESTIONABLE AS NO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR
AREA. HOWEVER..LARGE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES MAY BEGIN TO
ASSIST IN MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LVL E-SE FLOW FOR OUR AREA./VII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10
MLU 90 63 89 63 / 20 50 30 10
DEQ 83 62 86 63 / 40 50 10 10
TXK 84 63 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 85 62 86 62 / 30 50 30 10
TYR 92 68 91 71 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 92 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 10
LFK 94 69 92 68 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS. COASTAL PLAIN FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL. COOLER AIR AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...THEY WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVERHEAD
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1225 AM...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST POPS...MORE TO
REFINE THE TIMING...AND SHOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE N...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHC ACROSS SRN NH. T/TD WERE UPDATED A BIT AS WELL.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE CWA NOW THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z.
930 PM UPDATE... A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NH AND MAINE. LATEST HRRR HAS
THE RAIN ARRIVING AROUND 03-04Z OR 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT IN NH AND
05-06Z IN THE MAINE MOUNTAINS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS HAS SPREAD
TO COVER MOST OF WESTERN MAINE EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND JUST ALONG THE NH/ME BORDER. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
ANY FARTHER NORTH DUE TO HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE SO ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW GOOD HEATING TO OCCUR IN SPITE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALLOW THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WARM INTO
THE 70S ALONG WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NORTHERN AREAS STAY IN
THE MID 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THIS EVENING...
SO EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE FOG
BEGINS TO FORM. COASTAL AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM. THE PATTERN OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MEANS LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH VALLEY
FOG. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY...BUT MAY SPILL A
FEW CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OCEAN STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING AND BRING LIFR CONDITIONS TO ROCKLAND... PORTLAND... AND
AUGUSTA AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BUT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
MAY NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRYING BEGINS. ALTHOUGH FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS TONIGHT IT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO INITIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH FOG
LIKELY IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN VALLEY
FOG EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT OR SO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME 5 FOOT
SWELLS COULD AFFECT THE WATERS TOWARD MIDWEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1011 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. NIGHTS WILL BE COOL
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDERWAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALREADY SEEING
SOME FOG DEVELOPING UP AROUND LUDINGTON. HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WE COOL OFF ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRY TO SINK IN ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING SIGNIFICANTLY...LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE FCST.
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WE WILL NOT PUT IT INTO THE FCST AS IT WOULD BE MAINLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...AND LIKELY NOT CAUSE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO
JUSTIFY MENTIONING.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TEENS C AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE MOST PART.
500MB RIDGING DOMINATES THE LONG TERM...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN AN OTHERWISE QUIET PERIOD. THE FIRST IS
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE TO SOME EXTENT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF
AND GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS ALL INDICATE THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST KEEP THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS MOISTURE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTTOM
LINE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT US...STAYING TO THE WEST WHILE
WEAKENING.
THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE RIDGING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN JUST A BIT...VIA THE GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY PUSH INTO
THE U.P. IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...NEITHER THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS OR THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE RIDGE VIA THE GFS YIELD ANY PRECIP FOR US...SO CONTINUED
WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WE WILL START OF THE NIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES...BUT SOME FOG WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE DEVELOPING MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT
THE TAF SITE KJXN STANDS THE GREATEST CHANCE TO SEE
IMPACTS...WHICH HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT CLOSELY.
ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES...VFR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT RATHER TAME CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IWD COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING S WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE LARGE SFC HIGH TO OUR S EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. GETTING CLOSE TO
LLWS CRITERIA AT IWD AND CMX OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 25-
30KT WINDS ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES SLIDES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE MONDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A DRY WSW FLOW ARND HIGH PRES MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LKS WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT
IS TIGHTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES SLIDES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE MONDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A DRY WSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS WL BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. MAINTAINED FCST
LLWS FOR CMX EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PLACEMENT OF STRONGER LLJ
WINDS ABOVE RADIATION INVRN AT THAT SITE. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
MARGINAL FOR LLWS AT IWD/SAW...SO LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN AT THE
MORE EXPOSED IWD LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES SLIDES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE MONDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A DRY WSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS WL BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. MAINTAINED FCST
LLWS FOR CMX EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PLACEMENT OF STRONGER LLJ
WINDS ABOVE RADIATION INVRN AT THAT SITE. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
MARGINAL FOR LLWS AT IWD/SAW...SO LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN AT THE
MORE EXPOSED IWD LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
GUSTY N WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS E...IN
BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER S WI AND IA TONIGHT EXPANDS ACROSS LAKE MI AND LAKE
ERIE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
EARLY MONDAY WILL DEEPEN ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
856 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO CLEAR OFF TO THE
EAST AND CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS PARTICULARLY IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE THE MOST RAIN FELL TODAY. OTHER THAN ADDING IN
THE PATCHY FOG...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE MADE. /10/
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY AS
MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN...BUT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
MOIST NEAR-SFC CONDITIONS IN THE GTR/MEI/HBG AREA...WILL BE WATCHING
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 06Z - RECENT HRRR GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED
AREAS OF LIFR VSBYS. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MID AFTERNOON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS SHOWED THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS OVER EAST
MISSISSIPPI. LOCAL RADARS STILL SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS OVER OUR
SOUTHEAST ZONES AT 3 PM BUT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST BY THIS
EVENING AND BRING AN END TO THE RAIN. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE IN
THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES AS WELL. SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. UNDER
CLEAR SKIES...NEAR CALM WINDS AND OUR DRIER AIRMASS...STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TUESDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
FORM A WEAK CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY WHILE MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS BACK OVER OUR CWA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH TUESDAY AS WELL. THE 12Z
JAN SOUNDING THIS MORNING HAD A PWAT OF 1.67IN. OUR PWATS WILL DROP
BELOW THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH BY NOON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SURFACE AND ALOFT COMBINE WITH THE DRY AIR MASS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
WARM AND DRY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP BACK OUT IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUGGESTS LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER OUR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AIDED BY THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS...INCH AND A HALF
PWATS AND LOWER 60 DEW POINTS LOOK TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY EVENING. /22/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOWED
THAT THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN
DURING THE PERIOD. THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS WILL RETREAT TO THE ROCKIES TO
BAJA CORRIDOR. WE WILL START TO GET A WEAK SHEAR AXIS HOVERING AROUND
THE SOUTHERN CONUS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN DEEP
LAYER DRY AIR WITH PWATS AROUND ONE INCH OR LESS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST CONUS
THUS EFFECTIVELY PROVIDING LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THUS
CUTTING OFF THE GULF INFLOW FOR ANY RAIN CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE
PERIOD. AS WE PUSH INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND THE WEAK SHEAR
AXIS WILL BRING IN SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST. PWATS WILL INCREASE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES. THIS WILL BRING SOME SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN BACK
TO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY ACCORDING TO THE CANADIAN AND GFS. MEANWHILE
THE EURO TRIES TO BRING THE MOISTURE BACK FROM THE EAST ON
SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS A LITTLE FAST. SO WILL HOLD ON TO THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS. THIS MOISTURE FROM THE EAST MAY GIVE THE REGION SOME RAIN
CHANCES BEYOND SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMP WISE WARM CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 90S...THEN WILL
DROP TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. NIGHTLY
LOWS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE IN THE 60S. /17/22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 60 89 62 91 / 0 0 1 9
MERIDIAN 58 87 61 88 / 3 1 4 20
VICKSBURG 59 91 58 91 / 0 0 1 6
HATTIESBURG 62 88 64 90 / 4 2 5 29
NATCHEZ 62 87 61 90 / 0 1 1 7
GREENVILLE 60 89 59 91 / 0 0 1 4
GREENWOOD 58 87 58 89 / 0 0 1 6
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FROM AROUND KBIL W BASED ON HRRR SOUNDINGS. THE HRRR WAS
HANDLING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BETTER AT 12Z THAN OTHER
MODELS...WHICH WERE RUNNING TOO COOL AT 850-700 MB. A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING LEE TROUGHING JUST E OF THE
MOUNTAINS BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS. THERE WAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
W WY BUT ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
GAP FLOW...SO MIXING WILL BE THE SUPPORT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS OVER
AND NEAR KLVM. ALSO A CHINOOK ARCH WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOME CLOUDS ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE DIVIDE DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BASED ON
THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST
HAVE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
RAISING THE TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE THE GUSTY WINDS CENTRAL AND W...BUT
FUEL STATUSES FROM YESTERDAY WERE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED HEADLINE ON
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
WE CURRENTLY HAVE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. WE DO HAVE A WEAK WAVE IN
THE FLOW WHICH WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE UP ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...SO I EXPECT TO SEE A FLAT COLD FRONT DROP INTO OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING EASTERLY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALONG THIS FRONT WE MAY SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. PROGGS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION/THUNDER IN THE WEST...AND THUS KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE IS MORE RELATED TO WIND. WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES
INCLUDING BILLINGS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE MIXED OUT TO 600 MB
YESTERDAY AND TAPPED SOME DECENT WINDS. MIXING DOES NOT APPEAR
QUITE AS DEEP TODAY ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS...AND 700 MB WINDS ARE A
BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS WINDY A DAY AS YESTERDAY OVER BILLINGS AND OTHER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES.
THERE IS STILL ANOTHER ISSUE OF STRONG WINDS GETTING STRONGER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY EVENING WITH UP TO 35 KTS PROGGED AT ABOUT
775MB...AND MAY KEEP HIGHER HILLS MILD AND HUMIDITY DOWN FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT ANY POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SUCH AS THE ARROWHEAD WILDFIRE NEAR COLUMBUS IF
IT IS STILL ONGOING. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...WITH MID 80S FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONAL OR COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROF
SHIFTS EASTWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL IN HIGH
TERRAIN UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY MORNING. POPS IMPROVE
THEREAFTER AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INCREASES WITH IMPROVED
INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROF. TRENDED MOUNTAIN POPS UPWARD...WITH SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DOES IMPROVE CURRENT MODEL RUN...GENERALLY POINTING TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING/ NIGHT...BRING HIGHS WELL
INTO 80S FOR FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PREFRONTAL WARMING. THEREFORE KEPT TEMPS WARM FOR SATURDAY...EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS MUCH COOLER. PRECIP SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER... WITH COOLER AIRMASS
BECOMING ENTRENCHED...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF TROF INTO THE AREA
IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW TO REFLECT
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS FROM KBIL WESTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND THE KLVM AREA AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
WHERE GUSTS 30-40KTS WILL BE LIKELY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 054/079 049/078 052/079 053/079 055/086 055/079
0/N 00/B 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
LVM 079 047/077 042/078 046/079 047/078 049/084 048/077
0/N 01/U 21/U 11/B 21/B 12/T 33/W
HDN 083 048/080 047/081 049/080 050/080 051/088 051/081
0/N 00/B 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
MLS 082 053/079 049/079 052/080 052/077 054/087 055/083
0/U 00/U 22/W 11/B 11/B 11/B 23/W
4BQ 082 050/081 048/082 052/081 053/078 053/087 054/084
0/U 00/U 11/N 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
BHK 079 051/077 047/074 049/076 050/073 051/082 052/080
0/U 00/U 22/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 23/W
SHR 083 046/082 044/083 048/082 048/080 050/088 049/082
0/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 11/B 12/T 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION
WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NRN IL AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE WRN DKTS INTO THE NE PNHDL. OUR AREA WAS IN S/SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE
WAS RETURNING WITH A 20-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. PW VALUES WERE
APPROACHING ONE INCH IN NERN NE. HAD THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING A
LOW POP FOR ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...
MAINLY NW OF LINCOLN AND OMAHA. SOME PAST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL
RUNS HAD BEEN HINTING AT THAT...AND SHOWED 200-400 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE (BASES AROUND 700 MB). HOWEVER MOST RECENT RUNS
ARE DRY AND RECENT IR STLT PIX SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING.
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN WITH THE SLY FLOW THIS
AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND MIXING TO ABOUT 2500-3000
FEET AGL. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS IN OUR WRN COUNTIES. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM SCNTRL NE INTO WRN
IA...BUT FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SINCE IT APPEARS BETTER
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA BY THAT TIME.
TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES
LATE...BUT CHANCES SEEM HIGHER FARTHER S ON THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT AGAIN AROUND 305K. DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AT
THIS TIME...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
AND WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING SOME LOW POPS IN THOSE PERIODS. CURRENT
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO SHOW CHANCES QUITE AS GOOD AS PREVIOUS RUNS
BUT KEPT THINGS ABOUT AS THEY WERE FOR CONTINUITY. ALSO...THE 00Z
GFS DID SHOW SOME POTENTIAL. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WARM AS THE SLY FLOW PERSISTS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...THEN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE FROM WED INTO THU AS THIS MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST GOING FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
SHOW THAT A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A RIDGE FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL START IN THE 80S WED...COOL A
BIT FOR THU/FRI THEN MODERATE BACK TOWARD UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY
SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
UPPER WAVE THAT PRODUCED SPOTTY HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAD NOW MOVED EAST
OF FORECAST AREA AND ALL THREE TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SO SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
12Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION
WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NRN IL AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE WRN DKTS INTO THE NE PNHDL. OUR AREA WAS IN S/SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE
WAS RETURNING WITH A 20-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. PW VALUES WERE
APPROACHING ONE INCH IN NERN NE. HAD THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING A
LOW POP FOR ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...
MAINLY NW OF LINCOLN AND OMAHA. SOME PAST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL
RUNS HAD BEEN HINTING AT THAT...AND SHOWED 200-400 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE (BASES AROUND 700 MB). HOWEVER MOST RECENT RUNS
ARE DRY AND RECENT IR STLT PIX SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING.
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN WITH THE SLY FLOW THIS
AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND MIXING TO ABOUT 2500-3000
FEET AGL. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS IN OUR WRN COUNTIES. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM SCNTRL NE INTO WRN
IA...BUT FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SINCE IT APPEARS BETTER
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA BY THAT TIME.
TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES
LATE...BUT CHANCES SEEM HIGHER FARTHER S ON THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT AGAIN AROUND 305K. DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AT
THIS TIME...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
AND WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING SOME LOW POPS IN THOSE PERIODS. CURRENT
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO SHOW CHANCES QUITE AS GOOD AS PREVIOUS RUNS
BUT KEPT THINGS ABOUT AS THEY WERE FOR CONTINUITY. ALSO...THE 00Z
GFS DID SHOW SOME POTENTIAL. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WARM AS THE SLY FLOW PERSISTS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...THEN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE FROM WED INTO THU AS THIS MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST GOING FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
SHOW THAT A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A RIDGE FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL START IN THE 80S WED...COOL A
BIT FOR THU/FRI THEN MODERATE BACK TOWARD UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY
SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE SITES.
A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY PRODUCE
SCT-BKN LAYER OF MID CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS LOW STRATUS IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER. STILL EXPECT
THIS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. ALSO MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO MORNING T/TD/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS
RAPID CLEARING TO THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE
OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FOG TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE
GUSTY AND NORTHERLY... PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS... THUS THIS MAY
PRODUCE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE OVER THE REGION TO PREVENT VALLEY FOG.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY EVENING-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
906 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS LOW STRATUS IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER. STILL EXPECT
THIS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. ALSO MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO MORNING T/TD/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS
RAPID CLEARING TO THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE
OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY AT
KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BY MID MORNING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K
FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCATTERED CI. AT KELM,
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 09Z IN FOG.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS RAPID CLEARING TO THE
WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY AT
KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BY MID MORNING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K
FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCATTERED CI. AT KELM,
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 09Z IN FOG.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS RAPID CLEARING TO THE
WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS WITH LINGERING MVFR
SHOWERS ONLY EXPECTED AT KAVP UNTIL 07Z. BEHIND FRONT OCCASIONAL
MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY AT
KRME/KITH/KBGM. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT WITH
FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE VFR THROUGH 06Z
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.
NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN SLIGHTLY VEERING AFTER SUNRISE BUT
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
942 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM CDT WERE IN THE MID 40S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE JAMES VALLEY. WINDS WERE DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTHERLY AS FORECAST. NO CHANGE IN EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES FALLING NORTHWEST...INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA AS FORECAST SHOULD BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH.
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE NAM INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THIS IS A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE IN THE MODELS
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OCCURRING...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND
WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE WHAT WAS EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BLENDED HOURLY OBSERVATIONS WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS EVENING...AS NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
ALBERTA PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTERLY INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...80S WITH A FEW 90S ARE
BEING REPORTED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE WEST AS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH FAST ZONAL FLOW APPROACHES THE
AREA.
ON TUESDAY...A NOTABLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND
REBOUND A BIT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MILD TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT
RANGE COULD LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. THERE WILL BE
A CHANCE OF RAIN AT SITES KDIK AND KISN LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER IN THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON AT SITES KBIS AND KMOT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE SHOWERS
WILL BE SCATTERED AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...MM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
941 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...LOCATED FROM WAHPETON TO BEMIDJI AND QUICKLY PROPAGATING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE TO THE NORTH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WAS STRONGER...BUT
TOO DRY ACROSS THE STATES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS...CLEAR SKY...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
DEPICTS UPPER 30S ACROSS A PORTION OF NE ND...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS
WC MN...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
A HOT ONE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR
LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS BOOSTING
TO AROUND 90 JUST EAST OF FRONT IN AREA OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE RRV INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN. HRRR TRIES TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP AHD OF FRONT IN
FAR ERN FCST AREA NR 00Z-01Z...BUT BEMIDJI SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THUS DEFINITELY FEEL
LIKE DRY FCST IS THE WAY TO GO.
TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESP
NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
MAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATION IS FOCUSED IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE IN NW ND/SE SASK TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST RUNNING INTO VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AIRMASS. THUS FEEL ANY
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AND WILL HAVE
OUR FCST AREA DRY. 12Z NAM AND ECMWF TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF PRECIP WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CERTAINLY CAN BE
SOME...BUT THINK IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARRIVES
INTO ERN SD/SW MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET INCREASES. MAIN INSTABILITY SURGE HOWEVER IS
MORE SO TOWARD 12Z WED IN THE FAR SOUTH. THUS FOLLOWED WFO DLH
LEAD AND SLOWED DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST
POPS AFTER 06Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL TO SOUR SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA INTO
WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THERE FOR SCT SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WED INTO
THURSDAY BUT UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. THUS COVERAGE OF PRECIP NOT GREAT.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BASICALLY LOOK TO STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BEST MODEL
AGREEMENT COMES IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE WEATHER LOOKING
DRY AND TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
WANE. THEREFORE HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH GUIDANCE PCPN CHANCES
WHICH INDICATE SOME LOW END CHANCES. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST/NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTINESS...THEN SUBSIDING TO BELOW 12 KNOTS. SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
628 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
A HOT ONE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR
LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS BOOSTING
TO AROUND 90 JUST EAST OF FRONT IN AREA OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE RRV INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN. HRRR TRIES TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP AHD OF FRONT IN
FAR ERN FCST AREA NR 00Z-01Z...BUT BEMIDJI SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THUS DEFINITELY FEEL
LIKE DRY FCST IS THE WAY TO GO.
TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESP
NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
MAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATION IS FOCUSED IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE IN NW ND/SE SASK TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST RUNNING INTO VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AIRMASS. THUS FEEL ANY
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AND WILL HAVE
OUR FCST AREA DRY. 12Z NAM AND ECMWF TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF PRECIP WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CERTAINLY CAN BE
SOME...BUT THINK IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARRIVES
INTO ERN SD/SW MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET INCREASES. MAIN INSTABILITY SURGE HOWEVER IS
MORE SO TOWARD 12Z WED IN THE FAR SOUTH. THUS FOLLOWED WFO DLH
LEAD AND SLOWED DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST
POPS AFTER 06Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL TO SOUR SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA INTO
WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THERE FOR SCT SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WED INTO
THURSDAY BUT UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. THUS COVERAGE OF PRECIP NOT GREAT.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BASICALLY LOOK TO STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BEST MODEL
AGREEMENT COMES IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE WEATHER LOOKING
DRY AND TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
WANE. THEREFORE HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH GUIDANCE PCPN CHANCES
WHICH INDICATE SOME LOW END CHANCES. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MAIN THING TODAY WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SWITCH TO THE SW AND THEN
WEST THROUGH NW. COULD BE RATHER GUSTY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH MAY TRY TO WORK IN OR THIN OUT BY THE TIME THEY
ARRIVE HERE. LEFT THE SCATTERED MENTION OF A 4000FT DECK JUST IN
CASE. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES BY THEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS SHIFTING WINDS FROM
SOUTHERLY TO WEST/NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
GUSTINESS...THEN SUBSIDING TO BELOW 12 KNOTS. SKY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSTIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOUTH WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE AND LL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT
THIS LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE E/SE
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEST RAINFALL RATES HAVE KEPT FLOODING
CONCERNS LOW THIS MORNING... HOWEVER... POCKETS OF HEAVIER AND
PERSISTING RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND
RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SO STAY AWARE WHILE TRAVELING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON... SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND BEGIN THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH 11 AM CDT. THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTN... A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP S/SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FEATURE CAN JUST BE MADE OUT ON WV IN SRN CO THIS AM. IN
RESPONSE... LL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG AN AXIS OF LL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DEPENDING UPON THE EFFECTS OF
DAY TIME HEATING... INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MOVING INTO FAR WRN OK IN THE EVENING...
THROUGH 03Z (10 PM CDT). STILL... WITH THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF
THE HRRR WITH WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS AS OF LATE... IT MAY BE
OVER-CONVECTING... BUT GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS... A EXPECT SOME
UPDRAFTS... AT LEAST IN THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS CIGS WILL LIFT FROM AROUND 18-21Z. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY IMPACT OKC/OUN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
VISBYS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BELOW 3SM THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART BUT SOME TEMPO NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUN/OKC.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 88 67 90 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 66 93 67 93 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 94 69 95 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 64 93 66 93 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 86 67 89 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 67 91 67 93 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE AND LL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT
THIS LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE E/SE
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEST RAINFALL RATES HAVE KEPT FLOODING
CONCERNS LOW THIS MORNING... HOWEVER... POCKETS OF HEAVIER AND
PERSISTING RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND
RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SO STAY AWARE WHILE TRAVELING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON... SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND BEGIN THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH 11 AM CDT. THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTN... A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP S/SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FEATURE CAN JUST BE MADE OUT ON WV IN SRN CO THIS AM. IN
RESPONSE... LL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG AN AXIS OF LL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DEPENDING UPON THE EFFECTS OF
DAY TIME HEATING... INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MOVING INTO FAR WRN OK IN THE EVENING...
THROUGH 03Z (10 PM CDT). STILL... WITH THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF
THE HRRR WITH WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS AS OF LATE... IT MAY BE
OVER-CONVECTING... BUT GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS... A EXPECT SOME
UPDRAFTS... AT LEAST IN THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS CIGS WILL LIFT FROM AROUND 18-21Z. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY IMPACT OKC/OUN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
VISBYS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BELOW 3SM THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART BUT SOME TEMPO NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUN/OKC.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 66 88 67 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 80 66 93 67 / 70 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 68 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 82 64 93 66 / 30 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 64 86 67 / 20 30 10 0
DURANT OK 78 67 91 67 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS CIGS WILL LIFT FROM AROUND 18-21Z. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY IMPACT OKC/OUN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
VISBYS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BELOW 3SM THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART BUT SOME TEMPO NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUN/OKC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 66 88 67 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 80 66 93 67 / 70 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 68 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 81 64 93 66 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 64 86 67 / 20 30 10 0
DURANT OK 79 67 91 67 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 66 88 67 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 80 66 93 67 / 70 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 68 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 81 64 93 66 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 64 86 67 / 20 30 10 0
DURANT OK 79 67 91 67 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...DRY COOL AIR MASS IS SETTLING ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY,
WITH STRATOCU CIGS HOLDING TOUGH OVER EASTERN AND SOME NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS. WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR ONLY BKN CLDS OVER THE
EXTREME EAST TODAY, HAVE TRIMMED BACK MAX TEMPS FOR THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU JUST A BIT. ONLY LOOKING FOR ANOTHER 6 DEG RISE
IN TEMPS AT CSV TODAY, WITH A MAX AROUND 74. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER THE SW, WHERE WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS
ALLOWED READINGS TO RUN A LITTLE AHEAD OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS.
ALTHOUGH NO SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SO FAR THIS MORNING, HRRR AND NAM12 CONTINUE
TO SHOW AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO, WILL LEAVE OUR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONE FOR THOSE
AREAS.
WILL RELEASE A NEW SUITE OF UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY TO REFLECT
THESE NEW GRID UPDATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 80 58 81 56 / 10 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 78 53 79 52 / 10 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 74 56 76 52 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 80 57 81 54 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 82 58 81 56 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 78 54 79 53 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN...AND IS AIDING STREAMING A FETCH
OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EMERGENCE OF A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS IS HELPING TO VEER FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEAR ZONAL TO THE NW AND AS SUCH...IS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SWRD WITH TIME. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THANKS TO LAST
NIGHTS ADEQUATE LLJ COUPLED WITH WAA...THE ONCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE BECOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE UA
RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY EXPANDING WRD TOWARDS THE REGION IS
HELPING TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TOP DOWN...INITIALLY NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...NWRN AND NRN ZONES GIVEN CLEARING SKIES
THERE...AND WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN TO ACROSS THE SERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. SFC TROUGHING/A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...COMBINED
WITH A BIT OF INSOLATION....DETERIORATING CIN AND SB CAPE VALUES OF
1200+ J/KG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RAISES CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORMS /POSSIBLY STRONG/ FIRING UP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. IN FACT...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWED CI OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE NW OF WHEELER TX AS
WELL AS SW OF MEMPHIS TX ALONG THAT SFC BOUNDARY. THE TTU WRF
MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA WHICH APPEARS TO NOT
HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE HRRR ON THE OTHER-HAND MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP SITUATION...AS IT DEVELOPS SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE WHICH THEN PUSHES SOUTH
TO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DESPITE THE
MEAN FLOW BEING THE FROM THE W-SW. PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/A
COLD POOL COULD AID IN THIS SWRD TRAJECTORY. HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED
TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 21/06Z.
TONIGHT...THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE FA...AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WRD TOWARDS THE REGION.
NWRLY FLOW WILL THEREFORE BRIEFLY BECOME ESTABLISHED...HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE FILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM SOLUTION IN PARTICULARLY HONES IN
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK...AS SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. FURTHERMORE...IT IS
LIKELY HANGING ITS HAT ON LAST NIGHT/S AND TODAY/S PRECIP ACTIVITY
BEING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED. THOUGH LOOKING
BACK...THE BEST PRECIP /SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH/ FELL ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND PERMIAN BASIN VERSUS SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
CWA. NOT SURE IF THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE RATHER DENSE FOG AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM /BELOW 1/4 MILE/ BUT PERHAPS LIGHT FOG/HAZE AND/OR
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY...THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THE BULK OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WE WILL
HOLD ON TO SMALL THUNDER MENTION ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AREAS
TUESDAY. QUICKLY FOLLOWING WILL BE THE OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
BAJA THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP AND MAINTAINING MORE
INTENSITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD FALL OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES INITIALLY AS UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTH AND WEST
EVENTUALLY TO REFORM FURTHER WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THOUGH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT...STILL VALID FOR A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REFORMS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THIS MAY OPEN
A WINDOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOW TO DIP
BACK SOUTHWARD. OUR SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS
AND WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GIVES SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THAT FAR EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AFTER
AN INITIAL COUPLE OR THREE FAIRLY WARM DAYS THIS WEEK...THE
COMBINATION OF IMPROVED MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH LESS
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 60 88 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 60 89 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 60 87 61 85 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 92 67 94 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF A
JAYTON TEXAS TO ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO DE QUEEN ARKANSAS LINE. NEW
DEVELOPMENT HAS STARTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LAST HOUR FROM
NORTHEAST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO JACKSBORO TO SHERMAN LINE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
DENTON TO COOPER LINE AND LEFT POPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR WINDS/SKY/TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ARE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ELEVATED...AND ITS
GENERAL MOTION WAS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 10Z HRRR AND THE 06Z
NAM DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH PLACING THIS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...AND AS A RESULT...THE FORECASTS FROM THESE MODELS WERE
RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THE OKLAHOMA CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN A MESOSCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIVE THE
RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AROUND NOON. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SMALL COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE DFW AREA BY 20Z. ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE DFW AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS FORECAST BASED ON THE NAM
AND HRRR`S HANDLING OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES AT 20Z...WITH VCTS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT. ANY STORM THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS AN AIRPORT
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STORMS
DIRECTLY IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IFR
VSBYS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO LATER FORECASTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO GATESVILLE TO
BROWNWOOD EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO...WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR LIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE 1000+
J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES JUXTAPOSITIONED WITHIN THIS AREA. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...
STORMS NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE BETTER STEERING FLOW THAN THOSE
FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION MORE THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND PINCHES OFF AN UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
THAT MAY LINGER THERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS IT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE REGION AND WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...ALL
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AFTER WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
WACO, TX 94 71 95 71 94 / 10 10 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 87 65 88 67 90 / 40 40 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 89 70 92 70 92 / 40 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 70 91 / 30 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 20 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 70 93 / 30 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 94 72 93 71 94 / 20 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 70 93 70 93 / 10 5 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 69 93 69 93 / 30 10 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ARE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ELEVATED...AND ITS
GENERAL MOTION WAS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 10Z HRRR AND THE 06Z
NAM DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH PLACING THIS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...AND AS A RESULT...THE FORECASTS FROM THESE MODELS WERE
RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THE OKLAHOMA CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN A MESOSCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIVE THE
RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AROUND NOON. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SMALL COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE DFW AREA BY 20Z. ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE DFW AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS FORECAST BASED ON THE NAM
AND HRRR`S HANDLING OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES AT 20Z...WITH VCTS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT. ANY STORM THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS AN AIRPORT
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STORMS
DIRECTLY IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IFR
VSBYS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO LATER FORECASTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO GATESVILLE TO
BROWNWOOD EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO...WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR LIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE 1000+
J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES JUXTAPOSITIONED WITHIN THIS AREA. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...
STORMS NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE BETTER STEERING FLOW THAN THOSE
FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION MORE THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND PINCHES OFF AN UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
THAT MAY LINGER THERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS IT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE REGION AND WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...ALL
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AFTER WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
WACO, TX 94 71 95 71 94 / 10 10 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 87 65 88 67 90 / 40 30 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 89 70 92 70 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 70 91 / 30 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 20 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 70 93 / 30 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 94 72 93 71 94 / 20 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 70 93 70 93 / 10 5 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 69 93 69 93 / 30 5 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO MIDLEVEL DECK AROUND 10000
FT...WHICH SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CU FIELD WILL BUILD
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE MORNING NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT. JUST A FEW LINGERING SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOWERS NEAR MCALLEN THIS EVENING...THEN LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. FEW TO SCT CU WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE AGAIN.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT POINT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA GROUPS FOR BOTH BRO AND HRL...WITH A LITTLE
LESS CERTAINTY AT MFE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PESKY ESPECIALLY
IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY SINCE JUST BEFORE NOON...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY 4 PM WHILE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER
INLAND...BUT MORE MISS THAN HIT FROM HIDALGO/BROOKS TO PERHAPS
EASTERN STARR/JIM HOGG TO CLOSE THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT...AND REDUCED TEMPERATURES IN THE WETTER/CLOUDIER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF U.S. 77 AS READINGS HAVE DIPPED INTO
THE 80S AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 AGAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FLAT/PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE GETTING
PINCHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS SOME TROUGHING SLIDES THROUGH EAST
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RESPONSE IN BOTH ECMWF/GFS IS TO ELONGATE RIDGE TOWARD WEST TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS DEEP S. TEXAS/RGV.
SO...FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BACK TO MAINLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE USUAL
BREAKOUT OF FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELDS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS
MORNING...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTED UP TO 750 MB WHICH WAS ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOWARD THE
COAST. STILL A STRIPE OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 SUNDAY
MORNING AND IT`S VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL
ACTUALLY PLAY OUT. PERSISTENCE MAY BE THE BEST PREDICTOR...BUT WITH
JUST A SMIDGE LOWER MOISTURE VALUES HAVE KEPT WORDING AS ISOLATED
VS. SCATTERED (FOR NOW) WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND MOTION TO
TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD MORE EAST TO WEST MOTION BUT NOTHING LIKE
EARLIER THIS WEEK AND MORE LIKE TODAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BUT
SOME WHO GET RAIN COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF
THE GAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE. THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TUESDAY AS A 500 MB
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN US AND A 500 MB LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW...GFS DEVELOPS IT OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THUS
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW
850 MB. THAT BEING SAID HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SMALL DIURNAL
WIND RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 9 TO 12 KNOTS OVER
THE GULF AT NIGHT DIPPING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
REVERSE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WHICH MAY WELL GO NEAR CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT.
SWELL CONTINUED AT 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD TODAY AT BUOY 42020 AND THE
TABS BUOY 40 NM EAST OF SOUTH PADRE...WAVES HAVE CONTINUE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE 3 FEET TODAY. WITH MINIMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT A
SLOW DECLINE IN EACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SEAS
DROP TOWARDS 2 FEET IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS
PRECIPITATION. THIS MORNING WE HAD BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...FOR NOW HAVE AS ISOLATED...SHIFTING TO LAND
DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
64/64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
728 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND...DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...INTO
THE CAROLINAS...AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER GEORGIA WITH A TROF TRAILING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...
LOCAL RADAR SHOWS MAIN CONCENTRATION OF RAIN ALONG/EAST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE FROM PATRICK COUNTY VA TO HALIFAX/CHARLOTTE COUNTY.
AREAL COVERAGE HAS DIMINISHED...AND REFLECTED WELL WITH THE 21Z
HRRR. WILL MAINTAIN LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST THIS
EVENING...BUT HIGHER OVER THE BLUE RIDGE AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF A FLOYD/FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE. WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE
IN THE FLOW IN THE LOW LVLS SHOULD SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE/RAIN THROUGH
MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH FOG IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THIS IS
COVERED BY AN SPS...BUT IF FOG LOWERS TOWARD MORE OF THE VALLEY
LOCATIONS...MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
PREVIOUS AFTERNOON DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE ENTERING WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEPARATE MORE FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTS WEST. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. FORECAST LIFTED INDEX
AND OTHER STABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWED A WELL FORMED WEDGE AND STABLE
AIR REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT SATURATED WITH ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO KEEP
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. NOT AS MUCH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO TUESDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE DAY. WENT
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND OF THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGES. HRRR SHOWED THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA MOVING NORTHEAST BY 00Z THEN MORE
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM TAKES A DETOUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES TO CREATE GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH SOME LOWER THETA/E AIR WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND HELP SUPPRESS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO IS THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS MODEL WHICH FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS IS NOT AS
ROBUST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION STARTING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE GFS IS DISCOUNTING THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE A BIT TOO MUCH
AND AT THIS TIME WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...THOUGH THIS IS FAR FROM A SETTLED MATTER AND WILL BE
CAREFULLY WATCHING TRENDS IN LATER MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER
60S/LOW70S WEST...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
COMING AROUND TO AN UNSETTLED AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN OPENING UP AND PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PICKS UP STEAM AND DRIVES
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEFORMATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE LOW
DEEPENS AND STARTS TO PULL AWAY ON MONDAY. WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD BUT WILL NOT GO TOO FAR TOWARD
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THAT IS VERY WET. LATER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WILL HELP BRING THIS PERIOD INTO FOCUS AS IT DRAWS BEAR.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT MONDAY...
NOT A GOOD EVENING OR NIGHT TO FLY.
JUST A FEW TWEAKS TO THE AFTERNOON TERMINAL FORECAST. STILL HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MOST IF NOT ALL TERMINALS WILL SEE IFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THE MORNING TUESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGE LOCKING LOW LVL CLOUDS IN PLACE. PATCHY
RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE PREVALENT FROM ROA/BCB EAST TO DAN/LYH.
THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE TRICKY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
MODELS SHOWING CLOUDS BREAKING UP QUICKLY IN THE WEST...WITH WEDGE
ERODING. FOR NOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR...THINKING
DANVILLE HAS BETTER SHOT OF VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION AND POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS/WP
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
636 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS THAN ISOLATED WITHIN AN AREA AROUND MARTINSVILLE
VIRGINIA...WEST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS CENTRAL STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COLLECTION OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL
WITH A NOSE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AND
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 C. THIS AREA...AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKS OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER WERE MADE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES VCNTY OF KBLF/KBKW...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND FROM
THE APPALACHIAN CREST EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUD BASES REMAINING AOA 4KFT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAPE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO THE TAF SITES MONDAY WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR FOR MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM DUE TO OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES VCNTY OF KBLF/KBKW...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND FROM
THE APPALACHIAN CREST EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUD BASES REMAINING AOA 4KFT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAPE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO THE TAF SITES MONDAY WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR FOR MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM DUE TO OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WAS PRODUCING A PICTURE PERFECT AUTUMN-LIKE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD EASTERN
IA/WESTERN IL TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP A VERY LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA....GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH THE WIND DECOUPLES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. RAP BUFKIT
DEPICTING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE ALL THE WAY UP TO
500MB WHILE THE NAM SHOWS WINDS OF 10-15KT FROM 300 FEET AND ABOVE.
WHILE THE RAP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DECOUPLING/FOG...THE NAM
IS TOO WINDY. BESIDE THE WIND...ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BATCH OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...THIS MAY
SHUT DOWN FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL NEEDED FOR FOG. HAVE TO
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME DECOUPLING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...SO WILL STICK WITH
THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING FORECASTER ASSESS FURTHER.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR THESE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
SEASONABLY WARM/SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THAT COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING NARROW BAND OF
WEAK 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/BETTER RAIN CHANCES STAYING MAINLY
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WHERE NAM BUFKIT
INDICATING CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO RELEASE SOME CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF WASHES THIS
TROUGH OUT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS IT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. RESULT IS LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOWING MASSIVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...DRIED THIS PERIOD OUT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. MUCH
LIKE THE EARLIER THINKING...STILL FEELING THERE WILL BE VALLEY FOG
BUT IT MAY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING WIND JUST OFF THE DECK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. RIDGE AXIS IS PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD AT 04Z/05Z. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE SHRUNK TO ONLY A
FEW DEGREES. KRST OBSERVATIONS AND THOSE NEARBY HAVE ALREADY
STARTED SHOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. FURTHER EAST...
KLSE/KPDC/KOVS ALL BASICALLY CALM DOWN IN THE VALLEYS. A LOOK OUT
THE WINDOW SHOWS THAT LIGHT FUZZ IS ALREADY FORMING IN THE RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE CITY OF LA CROSSE. SO I HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT WE WILL INDEED SEE VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST FROM KLSE SOUTH AND
EAST. COULD EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THAT IF THE FOG CAN
FORM...AND THE INVERSION CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WIND
FROM MIXING IT OUT. WILL MAINTAIN THE KLSE TAF THE SAME AS THE 00Z
ISSUANCE...BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS IN CASE A MORE PESSIMISTIC LIFR PERIOD IS NEEDED AROUND
DAYBREAK.
BEYOND THAT...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES. TOWARD EVENING...MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID CLOUD SO
ADDED THAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
949 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2015
Synopsis...
Cooling trend to near normal temperatures through Wednesday as high
pressure weakens over the area. The dry weather will continue
although relative humidity levels will gradually improve. High
pressure will rebuild leading to a warming trend Thursday and
Friday. Normal to below normal temperatures expected this weekend
and into early next week with a chance of showers over the northern
mountains.
&&
*** Corrected record information for Travis AFB ***
.Discussion...
Record breaking high temperatures today for Stockton Airport at
102 degrees breaking the old record of 101 in 1949...Sac Exec
Airport also reached 102 with its prior record being 100 in 1987 &
2011. Travis AFB tied its record of 101 set in 1949.
A fairly warm evening with 9 pm valley temperatures still in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. The onshore gradient between SFO-SAC started
to increase after 5 pm, but observations at Travis AFB have only
shown winds between 10-15 mph so far. That hasn`t provided a quick
cool down tonight. However, the HRRR model does show that the
delta winds should pick up overnight so that early morning
temperatures will be upper 50s/low 60s for much of the valley. No
changes needed for the current forecast package. JBB
.Previous Discussion...
Afternoon (21Z) temps were running a couple of degrees warmer
than yesterday and seemed destined to tie/break a couple of
records in the Srn Sac and Nrn SJV...e.g SCK (101 in 1949) and SAC
(100 in 2011)...and it looks as if this occurred at 22z. The NAEFS
mean temps at 1000 mbs were noted from 32-36 deg C over the area
today...but are forecast to cool to 28-32 deg C over the area Tue
afternoon.
Strong high pressure over the area will weaken into mid week as
short-wave energy moves across the PacNW ahead of a digging trough
over the Gulf of AK. To the south...the closed low off the Baja
Coast is forecast to open-up and move NEwd into the Desert SW the
next couple of days. Moisture and instability from this feature will
remain well south of our CWA...south of Yosemite NP...due to the
trof moving across the PacNW. Cooling is expected to spread inland
across NorCal the next couple of days from a combination of
increased onshore flow and some synoptic cooling from the weakening
ridge. A strong Delta Breeze should promote double digit cooling
through the Carquinez Strait and into the Srn Sac Valley on Tue as
max temps return to near normal for the next couple of days.
Marine layer is well mixed out along the coast and is not likely to
reform in time for a stratus intrusion Tue morning. But perhaps Wed
morning should the ML deepen sufficiently.
Warmer temperatures should return to the region on Thu/Fri as high
pressure builds over the area as the upstream trough deepens over
the eastern Pacific along 140W. JHM
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)
A weak cold front will approach the northwest corner of CA on
Friday. Any precipitation associated with this system should stay
to the northwest of our area. Southwest flow associated with an
approaching trough from the Gulf of Alaska will bring a cooling
trend beginning on Saturday. Temperatures will be slightly below
normal through the extended period. Breezy south westerly winds
will be possible over the mountain ridges on Saturday as the
aforementioned system approaches our CWA. On Sunday night into
Monday, the ECMWF has a defined closed low off the coast of CA
bringing some precipitation chances into far northern CA. However,
the GFS solution keeps the forecast dry. Have kept precipitation
chances low mostly over northern Shasta County. IDM
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue today with light winds. Breezy
southwest winds should pick up on Tuesday as onshore flow
returns. Expect gusty winds up to 30 knots near the Delta and up
to 25 over mountain ridges for Tuesday. IDM
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
WHEN THIS MIGHT OCCUR. BASED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER EARLIER THIS MORNING...THEY
FAVOR A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE AND A MORE SUPPRESSED PRECIPITATION
SHIELD.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECTING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE OVER THE
WEEKEND MODERATING TO ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...06Z/WEDNESDAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TUESDAY AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. THE CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE WITH SKIES EXPECTED
TO BECOME CLEAR DURING THE EVENING AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST.
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE AT THE SURFACE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT-SAT: SOME PATCHY FOG LATE AT NIGHT/EARLY IN THE AM...OTHERWISE
NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT BOTH THIS AFTN AND
TOMORROW AFTN. RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT ON THURSDAY
AFTN. RH VALUES LOOK TO RETURN NEAR 100 PERCENT EACH NIGHT WITH
DEW FORMATION AND FOG FORMATION IN VALLEY AREAS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...GENERALLY 5 MPH OR
LESS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ONLY BRING SOME CLOUDS TO THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AFTERWARD...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
STREAMFLOW LEVELS OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND COMPARED
TO HISTORICAL NORMALS ARE GENERALLY NEAR AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SPOTS COMING IN AT BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. WITH DRY WEATHER
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL. A FEW MORE SPOTS MAY BE COMING IN BELOW NORMAL
BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LIFTING THROUGH SRN HUDSON BAY WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY TO THE MN ARROWHEAD. WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV AND A NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (PWAT TO 1.1 INCHES AND MUCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG) SUPPORTED A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
WERE ONLY ISOLD SHRA FARTHER SW INTO NW WI WHERE THE MID LEVEL
FORCING WAS WEAKER.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z AND WILL SAG INTO FAR SRN UPPER MI BY 00Z.
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE...EXPECT
MAINLY JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST HALF THIS MORNING AND OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR S CNTRL
IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW WI WILL BRING BRING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES NEAR UPPER MI BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z/WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE UPPER JET WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THROUGH ONTARIO...AND THEN
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY SUNDAY. WITH THAT SETUP...DRY
CANADIAN AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE BEST FORCING FARTHER
TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO AND HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE POP/QPF FORECAST (GREATEST FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST U.P. INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL THINK THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES NORTH AND THEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
LEADS TO THE FLOW BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND
IN TURN WEAKENING THE FORCING. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE
POPS/QPF...SHIFTING IT MORE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES EAST. LATEST FORECAST STILL HAS THE
BEST QPF OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARDS MINNESOTA...WITH
AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER A HALF AN INCH FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH
IRONWOOD...THEN TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE OR NOW RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 200 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GENERALLY BELOW 5.5 C/KM)...DID SHOW SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY...A RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. EXPECT DRIER
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LEAD TO A NICE FALL WEEKEND ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY...WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP OVER THE REGION AND PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA BEING BRUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND WILL HAVE
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE
CFS SHOW THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BOTH INDICATE OCTOBER WILL RECORD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A GUSTY...
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT UNDER
SHARP PRES GRADIENT. WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AT SAW
AND ESPEICALLY THE MORE SHELTERED CMX LOCATION WITH DIURNAL COOLING
ENHANCING THE RADIATION INVRN...THERE WL BE SOME LLWS UNDER THE
SHARP LLJ. A FEW -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ALONG WITH MORE CLDS/MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE COLD FNT TOWARD SUNRISE AS MORE LLVL
MSTR SURGES INTO THE AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WITH WSHFT TO
THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE FROPA WL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES FROM NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LIFTING THROUGH SRN HUDSON BAY WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY TO THE MN ARROWHEAD. WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV AND A NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (PWAT TO 1.1 INCHES AND MUCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG) SUPPORTED A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
WERE ONLY ISOLD SHRA FARTHER SW INTO NW WI WHERE THE MID LEVEL
FORCING WAS WEAKER.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z AND WILL SAG INTO FAR SRN UPPER MI BY 00Z.
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE...EXPECT
MAINLY JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST HALF THIS MORNING AND OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR S CNTRL
IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW WI WILL BRING BRING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES NEAR UPPER MI BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z/WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE UPPER JET WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THROUGH ONTARIO...AND THEN
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY SUNDAY. WITH THAT SETUP...DRY
CANADIAN AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE BEST FORCING FARTHER
TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO AND HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE POP/QPF FORECAST (GREATEST FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST U.P. INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL THINK THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES NORTH AND THEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
LEADS TO THE FLOW BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND
IN TURN WEAKENING THE FORCING. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE
POPS/QPF...SHIFTING IT MORE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES EAST. LATEST FORECAST STILL HAS THE
BEST QPF OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARDS MINNESOTA...WITH
AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER A HALF AN INCH FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH
IRONWOOD...THEN TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE OR NOW RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 200 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GENERALLY BELOW 5.5 C/KM)...DID SHOW SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY...A RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. EXPECT DRIER
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LEAD TO A NICE FALL WEEKEND ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY...WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP OVER THE REGION AND PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA BEING BRUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND WILL HAVE
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE
CFS SHOW THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BOTH INDICATE OCTOBER WILL RECORD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD AS A GUSTY...
RELATIVELY DRY SW FLOW PERSISTS AHEAD OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT UNDER
SHARP PRES GRADIENT. WHERE SFC WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER AT SAW
AND ESPEICALLY THE MORE SHELTERED CMX LOCATION WITH DIURNAL COOLING
ENHANCING THE RADIATION INVRN...THERE WL BE SOME LLWS UNDER THE
SHARP LLJ. A FEW -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ALONG WITH MORE CLDS/MVFR
CIGS ARE LIKELY TO PRECEDE THE COLD FNT TOWARD SUNRISE AS MORE LLVL
MSTR SURGES INTO THE AREA. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WITH WSHFT TO
THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE FROPA WL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WINDS STAY AT OR BELOW 25 KNOTS FOR THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUE. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND AS A
LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH HUDSON BAY TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
250 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS SFC AND UPPER
RIDGING PREVAILS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
POOLING AHEAD OF IT WASHES OUT ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT AND SFC RIDGING IS REINFORCED ON WEDNESDAY.
AN AREA OF WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS MOVES INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DRY EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING
THROUGH THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
DRY AND WARM WEATHER DOMINATES WITH NO LEGITIMATE THREAT FOR
RAINFALL THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT TUESDAY IT APPEARS. WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER DEW POINTS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THERE
COULD BE A THREAT FOR SOME LOCALIZED FOG IN THE MORNINGS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD TO THE FORECAST.
THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS SHOWING MID 80S BY NEXT TUESDAY WHILE THE 18Z
GFS PARALLEL ENSEMBLE PROBABILITY OF HIGHS > 80 BY THAT TIME IS 70-
90% FOR MUCH OF SW LOWER MI. THIS LEADS TO A GREATER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED WARMTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW OUR
BLENDED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOWS HIGHS
GETTING AROUND 80...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS THINKING IN REGARD TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI. HRRR RUC MODEL SUPPORTS REDUCED
VIS AND PERHAPS EVEN A CIG DEVELOPMENT AT JXN...AND NOT IMPOSSIBLE
THAT LAN MAY HAVE THIS TOO. ADDED 4SM BR TO THE LAN TAF BUT IF JXN
DROPS TO IFR THIS MORNING THEN MAY NEED TO BRING LAN DOWN AS WELL
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF LIGHT FOG AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR RUC.
OTHERWISE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOCALIZED ISSUE EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WILL KEEP MONITORING TRENDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 250 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OSTUNO
SHORT TERM...OSTUNO
LONG TERM...HOVING
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...OSTUNO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
124 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
QUIET WEATHER AND MILD TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND ACROSS THE AREA. PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED DURING THE
DAYS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80. NIGHTS WILL BE COOL
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1009 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING UNDERWAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ALREADY SEEING
SOME FOG DEVELOPING UP AROUND LUDINGTON. HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS WE COOL OFF ANOTHER COUPLE OF
DEGREES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT A DRY SHORT TERM WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGING WILL BE IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY ITEM OF NOTE WILL BE A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRY TO SINK IN ACROSS THE AREA TUE
NIGHT INTO WED. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE
LACKING SIGNIFICANTLY...LEADING TO A RAIN-FREE FCST.
WE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME POSSIBLE PATCHY GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT. WE WILL NOT PUT IT INTO THE FCST AS IT WOULD BE MAINLY NEAR
BODIES OF WATER...AND LIKELY NOT CAUSE ENOUGH OF AN IMPACT TO
JUSTIFY MENTIONING.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE IN THE 70S EACH DAY WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE LOWER
TEENS C AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
WITH NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH LIGHTER WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. HAVE NO RAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE
75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE FOR THE MOST PART.
500MB RIDGING DOMINATES THE LONG TERM...BUT THERE ARE A COUPLE OF
ITEMS TO KEEP AN EYE ON IN AN OTHERWISE QUIET PERIOD. THE FIRST IS
THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E WHICH IS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. THESE TWO FEATURES MERGE TO SOME EXTENT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND MOVE INTO THE PLAINS MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE ECMWF
AND GFS OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE RUNS ALL INDICATE THE RIDGING IN
PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST KEEP THE UPPER LOW AND
ITS MOISTURE WEST OF THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BOTTOM
LINE...THE SYSTEM SHOULD NOT AFFECT US...STAYING TO THE WEST WHILE
WEAKENING.
THE OTHER ITEM TO WATCH IS EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY...THE RIDGING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN JUST A BIT...VIA THE GFS. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
THE RIDGE. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...AN APPROACHING FRONT MAY PUSH INTO
THE U.P. IT STILL APPEARS THOUGH THAT THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIP WOULD
BE WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
SO...NEITHER THE MID WEEK UPPER LOW IN THE PLAINS OR THE BREAKING
DOWN OF THE RIDGE VIA THE GFS YIELD ANY PRECIP FOR US...SO CONTINUED
WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS THINKING IN REGARD TO LIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL LOWER MI. HRRR RUC MODEL SUPPORTS REDUCED
VIS AND PERHAPS EVEN A CIG DEVELOPMENT AT JXN...AND NOT IMPOSSIBLE
THAT LAN MAY HAVE THIS TOO. ADDED 4SM BR TO THE LAN TAF BUT IF JXN
DROPS TO IFR THIS MORNING THEN MAY NEED TO BRING LAN DOWN AS WELL
BASED ON EVOLUTION OF LIGHT FOG AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR RUC.
OTHERWISE...THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOCALIZED ISSUE EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT WILL KEEP MONITORING TRENDS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THAT RATHER TAME CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AND POTENTIALLY
INTO THE WEEKEND. NO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 20 KNOTS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJS
SYNOPSIS...NJJ
SHORT TERM...NJJ
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...HOVING
HYDROLOGY...WDM
MARINE...NJJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
307 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0306 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
Surface high pressure extending from northern New England to the
Great Lakes and southwestward into western Kentucky continues to
spread a drier than normal air mass over the eastern half of the
MO Ozarks this morning. A few lower to mid level clouds continued
to develop near the Kansas border as weak upslope flow has
developed where winds have a more southeast direction. The eastern
edge of upper level moisture associated with the remnants of
tropical depression 16E extends across eastern Nebraska southward
into northeast Texas.
These clouds will continue their gradual shift to the east and
should be overspreading our region by this afternoon and through
tonight. While this will slow afternoon heating, we`re already
starting out about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Therefore, expect
the net result will be high temperatures pretty similar to
yesterday.
The HRRR shows some weak and scattered precipitation developing
over the area this morning, but will discount that based on latest
trends. The NAM seems to have a better handle of precip but even
it is having a little trouble with overdeveloping precip this
morning. Would not be completely surprised to see a few light
showers develop over our western counties through today, but think
the chances are too low to carry in the forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0306 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
Still looks like a fairly quiet week weather-wise as the
westerlies remain over the northern Plains and upper Midwest as upper
level ridge builds over the region. The remnants of TD 16-E
gradually get absorbed as a weak wave in the westerlies and tracks
northeast across Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota
through Thursday. Thereafter, the extended models diverge a bit.
The GFS drops the disturbance southward along the eastern edge of
the retrograding upper ridge, and eventually evolves a cutoff low
over Arkansas by Saturday/Sunday. The ECMWF shows a similar trend
but develops the cutoff low further to the west. Will keep a dry
forecast going through Monday, but will need to watch the forecast
trend with this system and may need to add precip if GFS solution
evolves.
Temperatures should be warmest around midweek with the upper ridge
over the area and drop back a few degrees once the ridge shifts
back to the west late this week into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail through the period with upper
level ridge building into the area. May see some mid/high level
cloud cover in the forecast period.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Lindenberg
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
357 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE ANY STRATUS/FOG/POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEN
INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
WITH WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE H5 RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO AND WITH THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.AND ROCKIES
INTO TEXAS AND ACROSS MEXICO. THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
LOCALLY...SOME OF THE CIRRUS WAS SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. OUR 00Z SOUNDING HAD DRIED OUT FROM H85 AND
ABOVE...HOWEVER THERE WAS DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THIS LAYER...
ACCOUNTING FOR THE PWAT OF 0.92 OF AN INCH. SURFACE METARS
REVEALED FOG...SOME DENSE AT 08Z WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED NORTH OF MITCHEL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND O NEILL NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
60S AND DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG ARE FAVORED
THROUGH 18Z...SOME DENSE...LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE RAP HAS THE FOCUS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 585DM HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE TO 588DM TODAY WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HEIGHTS LOWER OVER COLORADO AS AN H5 SPEED MAX APPROACHES AND OMEGA
INCREASES. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE WITH
THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WARMER AIR
ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S NORTH...WITH MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSHOWER. THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER
NORTH AND IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP.
TONIGHT...THE OPEN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CLOSES OFF
WITH OMEGA INCREASING TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH. WITH THE
DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES EVEN MORE ORGANIZED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY. WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN
THE EXCESSIVE RAIN AREA FOR DAY THREE (WED/WED NIGHT)...BUT WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW THE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES UNTIL THEN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...THE TROPICAL REMNANTS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA...MORESO WITH THE EC COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
INFLUX OF LLVL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DECREASING BNDRY LYR WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEREFORE HAVE IFR/LIFR TEMPO GROUPS IN PLACE
AT KOFK AND KOMA. AS FOR KLNK...EXPECT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME. VFR THE THEREAFTER.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DEE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1216 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING/DEVELOPING AREA OF
MID/UPPER CLOUDS IN CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR
DEPICTING HIGHER REFLECTIVITYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE COOLING
TOPS/SHOWERS DEVELOPING MENTIONED ABOVE. PER 00Z NAM/GFS...VERTICAL
MOTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY A COUPLE OF THINGS. A 110KT JET
STREAK WAS LOCATED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA...ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
300K/305K PRESSURE SURFACES...AND MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS. THESE
FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN A WEST TO EAST FASHION OVERNIGHT IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS BAND
IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST CAPTURED THIS TREND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN IT AS
CURRENT DATA MENTIONED ABOVE SUPPORTS IT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 940 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL
WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WITH SUNSET.
TEMPERATURES AT 9 PM CDT WERE IN THE MID 40S FAR NORTHWEST TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE JAMES VALLEY. WINDS WERE DECREASING AND TURNING
NORTHERLY AS FORECAST. NO CHANGE IN EXPECTED LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES FALLING NORTHWEST...INCREASE OF
CLOUD COVER OVER MONTANA AS FORECAST SHOULD BE MOVING INTO WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH ONLY A COUPLE HOURS OF
POSSIBLE PATCHY FROST IN THE NORTH.
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LATEST
ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE NAM INDICATE A NARROW BAND OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING. THIS IS A VERY PERSISTENT FEATURE IN THE MODELS
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. COLLABORATED WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WITH
MORE CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS OCCURRING...BUT WITH ONLY LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MAIN CHANGES THIS UPDATE WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT AND
WINDS...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE WHAT WAS EARLIER FORECAST FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BLENDED HOURLY OBSERVATIONS WITH EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES LATER THIS EVENING...AS NO CHANGES EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD DECREASE THIS EVENING AND BECOME
NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE THAT WAS CENTERED OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF
ALBERTA PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER NORTHEAST MANITOBA INTO
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEASTERLY INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
WAKE OF THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...80S WITH A FEW 90S ARE
BEING REPORTED. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
AREA.
FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT PRIMARILY OVER THE WEST AS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE SLIDING THROUGH FAST ZONAL FLOW APPROACHES THE
AREA.
ON TUESDAY...A NOTABLY COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. WITH THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL TRY AND
REBOUND A BIT AS SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASES AS A
TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE STATE. LOW
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM...CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THE RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK
MOVES OVER THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND MILD TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
RANGE FORECAST.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERN TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
REGION...DEEPENING A SURFACE LOW NEAR THE WYOMING SOUTH DAKOTA
BORDER. IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW PROPAGATES TO THE EAST NORTHEAST.
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN THE 35-45 KNOT
RANGE COULD LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM OR TWO.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE IN OUR EASTERN
ZONES.
A WARMING TREND WILL TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE REGION REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LEAD TO SCT/BKN CIGS BETWEEN
8KFT AND 15KFT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY. SOME RAIN
SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT KDIK/KISN/KMOT...HOWEVER LATEST DATA SUGGESTS
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WOULD RESIDE AT KISN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
NEAR/AROUND KISN BETWEEN 15Z-21Z TUESDAY AND FOR NOW HAVE OPTED TO
MENTION A VCSH DURING THIS TIME. NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AERODROMES
WILL BECOME NORTHEAST THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...THEN EASTERLY AT 10KT-20KT
FOR THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...ZH
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1152 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE WIND SHIFT/COLD FRONT IS NEARLY THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA...LOCATED FROM WAHPETON TO BEMIDJI AND QUICKLY PROPAGATING
TO THE SOUTHEAST. STORMS WERE ABLE TO FIRE TO THE NORTH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WHERE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING WAS STRONGER...BUT
TOO DRY ACROSS THE STATES FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT. MAIN CONCERN WILL
BE OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS...CLEAR SKY...AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. CURRENT FORECAST
DEPICTS UPPER 30S ACROSS A PORTION OF NE ND...TO NEAR 50F ACROSS
WC MN...AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
A HOT ONE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR
LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS BOOSTING
TO AROUND 90 JUST EAST OF FRONT IN AREA OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE RRV INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN. HRRR TRIES TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP AHD OF FRONT IN
FAR ERN FCST AREA NR 00Z-01Z...BUT BEMIDJI SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THUS DEFINITELY FEEL
LIKE DRY FCST IS THE WAY TO GO.
TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESP
NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
MAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATION IS FOCUSED IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE IN NW ND/SE SASK TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST RUNNING INTO VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AIRMASS. THUS FEEL ANY
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AND WILL HAVE
OUR FCST AREA DRY. 12Z NAM AND ECMWF TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF PRECIP WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CERTAINLY CAN BE
SOME...BUT THINK IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARRIVES
INTO ERN SD/SW MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET INCREASES. MAIN INSTABILITY SURGE HOWEVER IS
MORE SO TOWARD 12Z WED IN THE FAR SOUTH. THUS FOLLOWED WFO DLH
LEAD AND SLOWED DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST
POPS AFTER 06Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL TO SOUR SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA INTO
WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THERE FOR SCT SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WED INTO
THURSDAY BUT UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. THUS COVERAGE OF PRECIP NOT GREAT.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BASICALLY LOOK TO STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BEST MODEL
AGREEMENT COMES IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE WEATHER LOOKING
DRY AND TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
WANE. THEREFORE HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH GUIDANCE PCPN CHANCES
WHICH INDICATE SOME LOW END CHANCES. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
WINDS ARE DECREASING AND SKY REMAINS CLEAR. ANTICIPATE THESE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
335 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AS WELL AT THE USUAL SPOTS. ISOLATED SHRA WELL OFFSHORE
MOVING W/SW. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
TODAY...BUT WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE HEATING AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. WED
LOOKS DRIER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES FALLING TO
BELOW AN INCH AREAWIDE. ON THU SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED
WITH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS SE AREAS ON FRI. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
FOR FRI. EXPECT SLIGHT CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND
MAINLY DRY INLAND.
AS MID/UPPER HEIGHTS FALL LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO DECREASE. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF BY SUN. THE ECMWF HAS THE MID/UPPER LOW WELL TO
THE SW OF THE GFS...CENTERED NEAR S TX...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NEAR NE TX. BOTH MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE YUCATAN IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.
AFTER TUE/WED...THEY DIVERGE CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW. SO...STAY TUNED AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE RAIN
CHCS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 33
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EAST COAST INTO
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAY SEE
A WEAK SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 70 93 68 93 / 10 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 94 68 92 69 91 / 10 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 88 77 87 / 0 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1258 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES AS LOW LEVELS REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY ON THE BACKSIDE OF YESTERDAYS MIDLEVEL TROUGH.
HOWEVER...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SHOWED IFR-MVFR CIGS AROUND
13-14Z FOR SAT/SSF...SO RETAINED SCT020 CIGS THERE. HIGH CLOUD
DECKS WILL HANG AROUND TOMORROW AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATING
PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN NM AND W TX CIRCULATES AROUND HIGH
PRESSURE. SE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10 KT EXCEPT AT DRT WHERE
BRIEF GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS WILL OCCUR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
COMING IN FROM THE NW WILL BE AROUND FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALTHOUGH THE RH TIME SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW
CLOUDS TUE MORNING...ADDED IN MENTION OF SCT015 AT BOTH SAT AND
SSF IN CASE WE DO INDEED GET SOME STRATUS IN THE MORNING AS WE
HAVE SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL MORNINGS. FEW CU FOR TUE AFTERNOON WITH
OVERALL A VERY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST E/SE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE SHORT TERM WITH CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND NO RAIN CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE
REGION UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. READINGS WILL TOP OUT
AROUND 2-5F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THESE HIGHER
READINGS ARE DUE TO A LOW TO MID-LVL RIDGE OVER THE REGION THAT IS
FLANKED BY A DEEPER EASTERN CONUS TROUGH AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION
16-E THAT IS ENTERING THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. ONLY IMPACTS THE
REGION WILL SEE FROM THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE SOME HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUD BLOW-OFF AS THE LOWER-LVL MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED
NORTH AROUND THE RIDGE. THIS RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE WILL KEEP
RAIN CHANCES NILL THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
WITH THE RIDGE IN CONTROL THROUGH THURSDAY AND THE REGION LIKELY
BEING ON THE WEST SIDE OF A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF CYCLONIC GYRE OVER
THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...LITTLE TO NO IMPACT WEATHER IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE
CURRENT LONGWAVE ERN CONUS TROUGH CUTS OFF FROM THE MAIN JET
STREAM AND MEANDERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST. AS THIS OCCURS...
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MAY BE ABLE TO PIVOT SOUTH ON ITS
PERIPHERY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WEST
TOWARDS BAJA. LONG TERM MODELS OF GFS/EC/GEM AGREE ON THIS OVERALL
SOLUTION BUT THE SUBTLETIES OF PWATS AND EXACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PLACEMENT LEAD TO VARYING RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WITH
THIS ADVERTISED PATTERN...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWN TREND
WITH READINGS BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. THE QUESTION WILL BE ON THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATIONS AND IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
AT THIS TIME...FEEL PWATS OF 1.2-1.4" MAY BE LOW ENOUGH WITH THE
WEAK FORCING AND LIKELY ON THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE MAIN CUT-OFF
TROUGH TO WARRANT RAIN MENTION. HAVE HELD RAIN CHANCES IN THE
10-15% RANGE FRI/SAT FOR NOW AND WILL SEE HOW MODELS EVOLVE THE
CUT-OFF GYRE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 72 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 68 93 65 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 69 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 92 70 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 94 71 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 70 93 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 68 93 66 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 94 69 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 69 92 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 94 72 92 70 92 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 71 94 69 93 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST TUE SEP 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE BROKEN/OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED OVER
FAR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF AJO AND ORGAN PIPE. KEMX
AND AREA RADARS SHOW LIGHT PRECIPITATION PUSHING INTO COCHISE FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO...AS WELL AS A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR SANTA ROSA OVER CENTRAL
PIMA COUNTY NORTHEAST THROUGH PINAL COUNTY AND INTO FAR NORTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTY. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE THUNDERSTORM
NEAR SANTA ROSA OVER THE LAST HOUR WERE BETWEEN 0.50-1.00 INCHES OF
RAINFALL.
ONGOING FORECAST HAS INCREASING PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES THROUGH
THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH 12Z KTWC SOUNDING INDICATING A PW VALUE
OF 1.40 INCHES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
ATTM. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER LOW CURRENTLY WEST OF THE NORTHERN
BAJA PENINSULA IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA
TODAY...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL LIFT...AS WELL AS SOME COOLING AT
THE MID LEVELS. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND U OF A WRF-NAM
POINT TO SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING. EXPECT STORMS TO MOVE
RATHER QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING
20-30 KT STEERING FLOW. EVEN WITH DRY AIR ABOVE 500MB...STORM
ENVIRONMENT TODAY WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONG STORMS...PRODUCING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE RATHER
QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS DO NOT ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOODING ISSUES.
WILL LET THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PUBLIC ZONES 507 AND 509 (UPPER
SAN PEDRO RIVER AND UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY/S) EXPIRE AT 9 AM MST.
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE IN GOOD SHAPE AND ON TRACK. WILL UPDATE THE
ZONES FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY...OTHERWISE NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE EXPECTED. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE LATTER
PERIODS OF THE FORECAST...PLEASE REFER TO PREV DISCUSSION SECTION
BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 23/12Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WIND GUSTS GENERALLY OF 30-40 KTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG RESTRICTING
VISIBILITIES TO NEAR 1/2SM WILL OCCUR IN THE VALLEYS FROM KTUS
VICINITY EAST AND SOUTH THRU 22/18Z. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT 4-7K FT AGL. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY IN THE VICINITY OF KOLS...KDUG AND KSAD.
SURFACE WIND MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR TODAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF TUCSON WEDNESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY EAST WINDS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE...NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WILL BE THE RULE WITH ABOVE
NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RETURNING THURSDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOWER-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AMPLE NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE WITH
DEWPOINTS MOSTLY IN THE 60S AT THIS TIME. KSAD ASOS HAD RECORDED
VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 3/4SM TO 3SM DUE TO FOG SINCE 0959Z.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED MARKEDLY DRIER
CONDITIONS ALOFT. THIS REGIME WAS VALIDATED VIA THE 22/00Z KTWC
SOUNDING THAT DEPICTED A VERY DRY ENVIRONMENT ABOVE 500 MB.
THE BROAD SCALE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EARLY THIS MORNING WAS
CHARACTERIZED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WEST OF NRN BAJA
CALIFORNIA NEAR 29N/119W...AND A NORTH-TO-SOUTH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL/SRN CONUS PLAINS. FAIRLY FAST SWLY FLOW PREVAILED IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS SE ARIZONA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS THE
EJECTING/FILLING UPPER LOW INTERACTS WITH THE AMPLE LOWER-LEVEL
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...THE GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO THE MARKEDLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. 22/00Z GFS
DEPICTED ONLY VERY MODEST CAPE VALUES TO OCCUR TODAY. THUS...THE
PROSPECT OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE MITIGATED.
GIVEN THE LIMITED GROWTH POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WAS CANCELLED.
OPTED TO DEPICT PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN THE LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WED AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY WLY AND SHUNTS THE RELATIVELY DEEPER
MOISTURE EWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. THUS...POPS WERE REDUCED WED TO
DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ONLY NEAR THE ERN MOUNTAINS.
THEREAFTER...THE 22/00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE CONSISTENT WITH DEPICTING
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BE OVER THE SWRN CONUS
THUR-MON.
THE GENERALLY NLY/NELY 700-300 MB FLOW REGIME SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO
AN INCREASINGLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT THIS PERIOD. THUS...HAVE REMOVED
ANY DEPICTION/MENTION OF A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS...AND HAVE
OPTED FOR PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE WED NIGHT-MON. LOCALLY
GUSTY EAST SURFACE WINDS SHOULD OCCUR FRI-SAT DUE TO FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR TODAY-THUR...THEN DAYTIME
TEMPS FRI-MON ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE A FEW DEGS ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
416 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE TREND TOWARD LESS RAINFALL THAN ANTICIPATED FOR OUR AREA
CONTINUES WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. ALL MODELS...INCLUDING
HRRR/RAP/NAM/GFS/EC...CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO
FALL SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. THE HRRR AND RAP INITIALIZED WELL
SHOWING THE RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL NM YESTERDAY EVENING AND LATEST
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO PRECIP FOR SRN VALLEYS UNTIL NOON ONWARDS.
LIKE THE LAST SHIFT...DROPPED POP GRIDS CONSIDERABLY FOR THE AREA
ESPECIALLY UP NORTH WHERE MODELS ARE REALLY NOT LIKING ANY PRECIP
WHATSOEVER. SAN JUANS ARE STILL FAVORED UNDER GIVEN OROGRAPHIC
LIFT AND JET POSITION. IN FACT...LOCATION OF THE JET LOOKS TO BE
THE MAIN CULPRIT FOR THE REVISED FORECAST. PREVIOUS RUNS PLACED
THE JET GENERALLY OVER OUR AREA ALLOWING PLENTY OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT PROVIDING LIFT WHILE THE LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH ALLOWED
MOISTURE TO STREAM INTO OUR AREA. IT APPEARS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WAS A BIT STRONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ADVERTISED WHICH PUSHED
THE STRONGEST PORTION OF THE JET STREAM FURTHER EAST...THUS LESS
DIVERGENCE AND LIFT. SO WHAT THIS ALL TRANSLATES TO IS MOST OF THE
CWA SEEING INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WHILE THE SAN JUANS
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE SOUTHERN VALLEYS (CORTEZ...DURANGO...
PAGOSA SPRINGS) SEE THE PRECIP.
OVERNIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SAN JUANS...AND
MAYBE A FEW OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...BUT THAT SHOULD BE IT
FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. FOR WEDNESDAY...THE GFS SHOWS A FEW
RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS WHILE THE NAM PAINTS SOME
SHOWERS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO SOME INSTABILITY AND DAYTIME
HEATING. EC ALSO SHOWS A DEARTH OF PRECIP SO LEANING IN THAT
DIRECTION WITH GENERALLY SCHC TO CHC FOR THE SAN JUANS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
SHOWERS DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR
OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK PUSHES EASTWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ALL SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDING IN ITS WAKE BRINGING A PERIOD OF DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ECMWF AND GFS DIVERGE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE EC SOLUTION
TRANSLATES A SHALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FEATURE FLATTENS THE
RIDGE A BIT...BUT OTHERWISE DOES LITTLE TO CHANGE CONDITIONS OVER
THE AREA. IN CONTRAST...THE GFS DEPICTED A DEEPER AND SLOWER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WHICH CAUSES THE HIGH TO SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS SOLUTION
RESULTS IN BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTH WITH SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH MONDAY. WPC
POINTS TO SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL ENSEMBLES ON DAYS 6 AND 7 SO
LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER. CONSEQUENTLY...
WILL HOLD OFF PUSHING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
REMNANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST COLORADO
BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
18Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 18Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING TO 06Z/WED BEFORE DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT. AREAS IMPACTED WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A KU64...KAIB...
KGUC LINE THOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW END SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTORM
COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL COLORADO MOUNTAINS. KCEZ...KDRO AND
KPSO ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH COULD BRING CIGS DOWN TO ILS BREAKPOINTS. BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN
HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE. CHANCES ARE LOWER FOR KTEX AND KGUC
WITH PROBABILITY FOR RAINFALL SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TO THE NORTH.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...NL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
WILL ALTER THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY ON THE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON
MORNING TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GET AN EARLIER
START THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
BUT A COUPLE OF SMALL INVERSIONS PERSIST WHICH WILL NO DOUBT
INHIBIT SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
OVERCOME THOSE CAPS. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK BUT THE HRRR SHOWS
A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE AVERAGE WIND FIELD IS OUT OF THE WEST BUT AT SPEEDS OF MOSTLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT ANY
SITE. SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME L/V AFT 00Z THIS
EVENING.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LINGERING SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EXTENDING WEST FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ACTING AS A BOUNDARY OF SORTS, SEPARATING DRIER AIR OVER
AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FROM HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVER-SO-SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE AS
WELL AS PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY, MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER 2
INCHES.
FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE PATTERN, INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THERE WILL BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
POPS HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT LIGHT ENOUGH FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
CAUSE CELLS TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COASTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TODAY, WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY
RATHER HIGH TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MIA/FTL AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS
IN THE GULF AND ENHANCES SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE GRADUAL UPWARD TREND
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE
TROUGH STILL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THURSDAY, FAIRLY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF 60/70% POPS AREA-WIDE. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR GENERAL
TSTMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALSO LOWER THE MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID/UPPER
80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER GLADES COUNTY,
WITH 70S ELSEWHERE...THEN 70S AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW
LOOKS NOT AS WET AS THE WORK WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. PRETTY MUCH TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER/RAINY
SEASON POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR
WEATHER, IF AT ALL, NEXT WEEK. /MOLLEDA
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
COASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SMALL NORTH SWELL ENTERS THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 74 86 75 / 30 20 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 76 87 76 / 40 40 50 50
MIAMI 89 75 87 76 / 50 40 50 50
NAPLES 90 74 88 74 / 40 40 40 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PERSISTENT PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. THERE IS A LEE SIDE LOW
EVIDENT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT MAY PROMPT SOME
WEAK CONVECTION IN THOSE PARTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF A LOCALIZED
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY. EVEN THE HRRR SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS.
WILL KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY...THOUGH...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN WHILE HAVING THE HIGHEST...STILL JUST SINGLE DIGIT...POPS
OVER THE FAR EAST NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE EARLY
MORNING FOG AND DENSE FOG IS JUST ABOUT GONE SO WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE THAT FROM THE HWO AND ZONES. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
MOSTLY ON TRACK...RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND UPPER
50S RESPECTIVELY. DID INFUSE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO
THEM AND ALSO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. MEANWHILE
WINDS ARE LIGHT. JUST A SMATTERING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FOUND IN THE EAST...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING FOG. EXPECT
THESE TO WANE INITIALLY BEFORE SOME BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND HWO WITH THE
LATEST GRIDS SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN WITH
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS..OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS ALIGNED JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH RIDGING FOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND DAMPENING WITH TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
BESIDES SOME CLOUDS IN THE EAST...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 50S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
HIGHS A BIT MILDER STILL...WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO START OFF THE EXTENDED...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GAINS
STRENGTH TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BORDERING
STATES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL...BUT SHOULD FINALLY START
TRACKING NORTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING KY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF...SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW...BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SPLITS THE LOW INTO TWO SECTIONS...ONE WHICH WILL DRIFT WELL
TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER WHICH WILL DRIFT JUST EAST OF THE STATE.
IF THIS IS THE CASE...WE MAY ONLY SEE PRECIP IN THE FAR EAST
DURING PEAK HEATING ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...STUCK
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICE COLLABORATION ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PRECIP BOTH DURING THE
WEEKEND AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BOUNDARIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND WILL BE WEAK AT BEST. AS SUCH...CONTINUED
WITH ONLY THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST
AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT NO MAJOR
CAA OR WAA ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE AND VERY NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY...STARTING OFF THE
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BURN OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z. FEW TO
SCATTERED STRATOCU IN THE 3-5K FEET AGL RANGE WILL BE SEEN IN THE
EAST TODAY...BEFORE SKIES MAINLY CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. MVFR OR WORSE
FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ONCE AGAIN BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z...MAINLY IN THE
VALLEYS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LIFTING THROUGH SRN HUDSON BAY WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY TO THE MN ARROWHEAD. WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV AND A NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (PWAT TO 1.1 INCHES AND MUCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG) SUPPORTED A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
WERE ONLY ISOLD SHRA FARTHER SW INTO NW WI WHERE THE MID LEVEL
FORCING WAS WEAKER.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z AND WILL SAG INTO FAR SRN UPPER MI BY 00Z.
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE...EXPECT
MAINLY JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST HALF THIS MORNING AND OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR S CNTRL
IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW WI WILL BRING BRING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES NEAR UPPER MI BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z/WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE UPPER JET WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THROUGH ONTARIO...AND THEN
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY SUNDAY. WITH THAT SETUP...DRY
CANADIAN AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE BEST FORCING FARTHER
TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO AND HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE POP/QPF FORECAST (GREATEST FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST U.P. INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL THINK THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES NORTH AND THEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
LEADS TO THE FLOW BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND
IN TURN WEAKENING THE FORCING. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE
POPS/QPF...SHIFTING IT MORE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES EAST. LATEST FORECAST STILL HAS THE
BEST QPF OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARDS MINNESOTA...WITH
AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER A HALF AN INCH FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH
IRONWOOD...THEN TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE OR NOW RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 200 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GENERALLY BELOW 5.5 C/KM)...DID SHOW SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY...A RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. EXPECT DRIER
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LEAD TO A NICE FALL WEEKEND ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY...WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP OVER THE REGION AND PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA BEING BRUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND WILL HAVE
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE
CFS SHOW THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BOTH INDICATE OCTOBER WILL RECORD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LOOK FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH UPPER MICHIGAN TODAY. ISOLD -SHRA ARE ALSO EXPECTED
BUT SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO REDUCE VSBY. TS ARE POSSIBLE BUT
PROB IS TOO LOW FOR FOR MENTION IN THE TAF. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
WITH WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE TUE FROPA WILL BRING A RETURN OF
VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES FROM NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
942 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MID LEVEL FGEN WAS LEADING TO CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THAT AT THIS
TIME. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY BUT
LEFT TEMPERATURES THE SAME AT THIS TIME AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
THAT WAS DEPICTING THE CLOUDS WERE CLOSE TO OUR CURRENT MAX TEMP
FORECAST.
THERE WERE ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON AREA RADAR...BUT FEEL
THE DRY LOW-MID LAYER WILL AID IN KEEPING NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRY
THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...TO DULUTH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES/SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
HAVE REMAINED DRY OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WIS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOME IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
A SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...REACHING THE IRON RANGE/ARROWHEAD REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT. A RESULTING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE 50S AND 60S...ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.5"
DURING THIS TIME...SO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WET. AN ELEVATED
TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW IN
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND
LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO BE WETTER AND IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES.
THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE ELEVATED FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CANADA NOSES INTO THE NORTHLAND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY...PROMOTING SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S BY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING SE THROUGH NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE KHYR AREA AROUND 9 AM...WITH A
SUBSEQUENT WIND SHIFT TO THE NNW. EXPECT THE MVFR CEILINGS AT KHYR
TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE SKIES CLEAR IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
SAVE FOR THE LINGERING LOW CLOUD COVER IN NW WISCONSIN...SUNNY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT IN
LIFTS NORTH INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL BRING LOWERING
CEILINGS OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST AFFECTING KBRD IN THE WEE HOURS OF
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE RAIN WILL LIKELY NOT REACH OTHER TERMINALS
UNTIL AFTER 12Z TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 58 52 / 0 10 80 70
INL 65 42 57 49 / 0 10 40 60
BRD 70 51 63 57 / 10 60 90 70
HYR 70 46 65 56 / 10 10 70 70
ASX 70 47 62 53 / 10 10 70 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
1034 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
QUIET WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS SFC RIDGING RESIDES OVER
THE REGION. THE AREA IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
AND RETROGRADING UPPER LOW TO THE E...KEEPING VERY DRY NE FLOW ALOFT
LOCKED OVER THE REGION. THIS IS A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WE SAW LATE
LAST WEEK. THE DRY AIR IS DEPICTED ON THE 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
WITH AROUND THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH TO ONE INCH AND A QUARTER PW`S.
DUE TO BETTER MIXING IN THE MODELS...INCLUDING GFS/NAM AND
HRRR...WENT WITH A BLEND OF CURRENT FCST AND HRRR TO LOWER DEWPOINTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER MIXING. DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND VERY DRY
CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE...DECIDED TO ADD A LIMITED RISK TO FIRE
WEATHER...MAINLY FOR CENTRAL AREAS AND NW DELTA...FOR THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL 00Z. WINDS LOOK LOW ENOUGH TO NOT SATISFY RED FLAG CRITERIA.
AREAS IN THE E/SE LOOK TO HAVE HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DUE TO SOME
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE FROM THE E SO LEFT THOSE AREAS OUT OF THE
LIMITED RISK.
OVERALL...HIGHS LOOK GOOD THIS AFTERNOON AS H85 TEMPS HAVE INCREASED
SOMEWHAT BASED ON 12Z KJAN SOUNDING AND LAPS ANALYSIS. ADJUSTED
HOURLY DEWPOINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR BETTER MIXING. REST OF THE UPDATES
ARE OUT. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY AREAS OF
FOG MAINLY IN THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DRYING OUT TODAY...NOT EXPECTING THE SAME DENSITY OF FOG AS SEEN
EARLIER THIS MORNING. /EC/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WV IMAGERY THIS
MORNING SHOWING WAVE THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY OVER AL WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE OVER S MS/S LA/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWING EVER PRESENT MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER TX/MEXICO WITH
CIRRUS FANNING OUT OVER THE TOP.
MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE WAVE OVER AL WILL DIG TO THE S BEFORE
DEPARTING THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE
DIGGING WAVE WILL COME IN THE FORM OF AN INVERTED TROF THAT WILL
DEVELOP OVER AL TODAY. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN BEGIN MOVING WEST WITH
THE PERTURBED WIND FIELD PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD ON ITS EASTERN
FLANK TONIGHT. THE TROF AND MOISTURE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH MS
DURING THE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH THE TROF SLOWLY DAMPENING AS IT
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM ITS UPPER SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS...EXPECT
ISOLATED LIGHT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. LOW CAPES AND WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD KEEP THE CONVECTION
SHALLOW AND IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS. WARMING AIR ALOFT SHOULD PREVENT
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION. THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO THE EVENING OVER THE FAR SOUTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE ON WEDNESDAY...A SLOW WARMING TREND
WILL BE SEEN IN TEMPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS DRAWS CLOSER. /26/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH KEEPING MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WEDGED INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS
THE CWA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DESPITE THE TROUGHING OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE PERIOD...RAIN CHANCES
WILL REMAIN TOUGH TO COME BY DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE REGION...PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES HOVERING AROUND 1.5
INCHES...AND WEAK EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM STILL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90...AND LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOW AND MIDDLE 60S. /19/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 88 60 89 64 / 1 1 15 8
MERIDIAN 86 62 84 64 / 6 2 20 7
VICKSBURG 90 60 91 64 / 1 1 9 6
HATTIESBURG 89 64 85 66 / 4 3 25 14
NATCHEZ 87 62 89 65 / 1 2 11 9
GREENVILLE 88 59 90 64 / 1 1 3 4
GREENWOOD 87 60 88 64 / 1 2 5 7
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
DC/EC/26/19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
555 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0306 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
Surface high pressure extending from northern New England to the
Great Lakes and southwestward into western Kentucky continues to
spread a drier than normal air mass over the eastern half of the
MO Ozarks this morning. A few lower to mid level clouds continued
to develop near the Kansas border as weak upslope flow has
developed where winds have a more southeast direction. The eastern
edge of upper level moisture associated with the remnants of
tropical depression 16E extends across eastern Nebraska southward
into northeast Texas.
These clouds will continue their gradual shift to the east and
should be overspreading our region by this afternoon and through
tonight. While this will slow afternoon heating, we`re already
starting out about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Therefore, expect
the net result will be high temperatures pretty similar to
yesterday.
The HRRR shows some weak and scattered precipitation developing
over the area this morning, but will discount that based on latest
trends. The NAM seems to have a better handle of precip but even
it is having a little trouble with overdeveloping precip this
morning. Would not be completely surprised to see a few light
showers develop over our western counties through today, but think
the chances are too low to carry in the forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0306 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
Still looks like a fairly quiet week weather-wise as the
westerlies remain over the northern Plains and upper Midwest as upper
level ridge builds over the region. The remnants of TD 16-E
gradually get absorbed as a weak wave in the westerlies and tracks
northeast across Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota
through Thursday. Thereafter, the extended models diverge a bit.
The GFS drops the disturbance southward along the eastern edge of
the retrograding upper ridge, and eventually evolves a cutoff low
over Arkansas by Saturday/Sunday. The ECMWF shows a similar trend
but develops the cutoff low further to the west. Will keep a dry
forecast going through Monday, but will need to watch the forecast
trend with this system and may need to add precip if GFS solution
evolves.
Temperatures should be warmest around midweek with the upper ridge
over the area and drop back a few degrees once the ridge shifts
back to the west late this week into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 0555 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
For the KSGF, KJLN, and KBBG TAFS: VFR conditions are expected
today and tonight. Clouds will increase across the region this
morning and afternoon but will be mainly high level cloud cover.
Winds will pick up some out of the south to southeast this
morning and afternoon then weaken around sunset this evening.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Wise
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE ANY STRATUS/FOG/POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION...THEN
INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
WITH WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE H5 RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO AND WITH THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.AND ROCKIES
INTO TEXAS AND ACROSS MEXICO. THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
LOCALLY...SOME OF THE CIRRUS WAS SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. OUR 00Z SOUNDING HAD DRIED OUT FROM H85 AND
ABOVE...HOWEVER THERE WAS DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THIS LAYER...
ACCOUNTING FOR THE PWAT OF 0.92 OF AN INCH. SURFACE METARS
REVEALED FOG...SOME DENSE AT 08Z WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED NORTH OF MITCHEL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND O NEILL NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
60S AND DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG ARE FAVORED
THROUGH 18Z...SOME DENSE...LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE RAP HAS THE FOCUS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 585DM HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE TO 588DM TODAY WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HEIGHTS LOWER OVER COLORADO AS AN H5 SPEED MAX APPROACHES AND OMEGA
INCREASES. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE WITH
THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WARMER AIR
ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S NORTH...WITH MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSHOWER. THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER
NORTH AND IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP.
TONIGHT...THE OPEN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CLOSES OFF
WITH OMEGA INCREASING TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH. WITH THE
DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES EVEN MORE ORGANIZED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY. WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN
THE EXCESSIVE RAIN AREA FOR DAY THREE (WED/WED NIGHT)...BUT WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW THE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES UNTIL THEN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...THE TROPICAL REMNANTS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA...MORESO WITH THE EC COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBYS IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING NEAR KOFK. EXPECT AT LEAST IFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 16Z BEFORE CIGS LIFT AND VSBYS IMPROVE TO
VFR BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. MVFR FOG IS LIKELY AT KLNK AND KOMA
THROUGH MID MORNING...AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE IFR CIGS/VSBYS
COULD DEVELOP FOR A SHORT TIME AS WELL. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THAT AREA.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...DERGAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
513 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHERN BAJA THIS MORNING BRINGING
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREAS ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
FROM BARSTOW TO CALIENTE. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...PERSISTENT LINE OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MOHAVE COUNTY HAS MADE LITTLE PROGRESS WESTWARD AND
IN FACT LOOKS TOO BE DISSIPATING. LATEST HRRR AND 06Z MODEL OUTPUT
SHOWS THE I-15 CORRIDOR BETWEEN PRIMM AND MESQUITE STAYING DRY
THROUGH LATE MORNING SO TRIMMED BACK ON POPS. MAY SEE SOMETHING
DEVELOP CLOSER TO LAUGHLIN/SEARCHLIGHT LATER BUT CONFIDENCE EVEN
THERE IS LOW. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION
232 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS WERE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. RAIN GAUGES IN AND AROUND WIKIEUP HAVE THUS FAR THROUGH 2 AM
HAVE MEASURED .08-.12 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
MOVING WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS PACIFIC TROUGHING MOVES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, OBSERVATIONS SHOW 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS
MESQUITE NV. THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA REMAIN DRY AT THE
SURFACE WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR DEWPOINT TEMPS.
FOR TODAY, THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. THE 00Z GFS HAS THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE
TROUGH DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARE
FORECAST. MODEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGS AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY END TONIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VEGAS COULD HIT 100
DEGREES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC THIS MORNING AS LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
GFS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE ECMWF/CMC BOTH ARE NOW
SLOWER/LAGGING AN UPPER TROUGH OFF SHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST WELL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR US, DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH THAT MEANS A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BUMPED UP
HIGHS SOME MORE AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GET WARMER. NOW WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH RUNNING SOME 7 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...WINDS GENERALLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST UNDER
8KTS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS THEN SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IS
POSSIBLE BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR RAIN
SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
LOWER CIGS AT OR NEAR THE TERMINAL. CLEARING CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOW CEILINGS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
925 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED THIS MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD. SFC OBS INDICATE MID-LEVEL CEILINGS WITHIN THE
RADAR RETURNS...SO EXPECT ANY PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND TO BE
QUITE LIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST THIS
MORNING BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS VERY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE I-94
CORRIDOR CENTRAL. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. ONGOING FORECAST
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE
08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH CAPTURES WELLL RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST THROUGH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST...FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
CORRESPONDING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AS VERTICAL MOTION/LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEING ATTRIBUTED TO A DEPARTING 110KT JET MAX IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WITHE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 300K/305K PRESSURE SURFACE...AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED AT BEACH WITH CLOUD
BASES REPORTED AT 6KFT AND 9KFT. MODELS AGREE WITH THIS BAND
LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SEEMED TO BE LACKING. STARTED WITH THE
CURRENT RADAR FOR POP TRENDS...AND THEN UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 25 MPH...AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 60S.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
AN ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL REACH INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
DAKOTA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A RELATIVELY COOL...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S NORTHWEST OF THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF NOW...THE
MAIN IMPACT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...A
WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
-SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED AT KISN BETWEEN 12Z-17Z TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. CIGS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
9KFT TO 15KFT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT CIGS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT
KJMS BY 10Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A VCTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JM
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
639 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS VERY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE I-94
CORRIDOR CENTRAL. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. ONGOING FORECAST
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE
08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH CAPTURES WELLL RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST THROUGH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST...FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
CORRESPONDING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AS VERTICAL MOTION/LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEING ATTRIBUTED TO A DEPARTING 110KT JET MAX IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WITHE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 300K/305K PRESSURE SURFACE...AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED AT BEACH WITH CLOUD
BASES REPORTED AT 6KFT AND 9KFT. MODELS AGREE WITH THIS BAND
LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SEEMED TO BE LACKING. STARTED WITH THE
CURRENT RADAR FOR POP TRENDS...AND THEN UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 25 MPH...AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 60S.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
AN ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL REACH INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
DAKOTA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A RELATIVELY COOL...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S NORTHWEST OF THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF NOW...THE
MAIN IMPACT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...A
WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
-SHRA CAN BE EXPECTED AT KISN BETWEEN 12Z-17Z TUESDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AT THE REMAINING TERMINALS. CIGS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM
9KFT TO 15KFT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCT CIGS AFTER 00Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN LOW VFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISN AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT
KJMS BY 10Z WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH A VCTS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1048 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
SEE MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES NEAR 1.50 INCHES AT CRP AND 1.20
INCHES AT LCH. SOUNDINGS SHOW MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
OVER SE TX THIS AFTN AND CURRENT TEMPS ARE 1 TO 2 DEGREES COOLER
AT THIS TIME COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO SE
TX FROM THE EAST THIS AFTN WHICH SHOULD AID IN HEATING. EXTREME
WESTERN ZONES ON THE CUSP OF DEEPER MSTR SO WILL LET THE ISO POPS
RIDE THIS AFTN. OTHER THAN SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO SKY GRIDS AND
TEMPS...WILL LET THE PREV FCST RIDE. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
AVIATION...
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z. REST OF THE DAY VFR. COULD SEE A
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN THE CLL AREA THIS AFTERNOON... BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. COULD SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP LATER ON
TONIGHT AND ON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. 42
PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
SEEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AS WELL AT THE USUAL SPOTS. ISOLATED SHRA WELL OFFSHORE
MOVING W/SW. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
TODAY...BUT WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE HEATING AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. WED
LOOKS DRIER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES FALLING TO
BELOW AN INCH AREAWIDE. ON THU SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED
WITH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS SE AREAS ON FRI. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
FOR FRI. EXPECT SLIGHT CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND
MAINLY DRY INLAND.
AS MID/UPPER HEIGHTS FALL LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO DECREASE. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF BY SUN. THE ECMWF HAS THE MID/UPPER LOW WELL TO
THE SW OF THE GFS...CENTERED NEAR S TX...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NEAR NE TX. BOTH MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE YUCATAN IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.
AFTER TUE/WED...THEY DIVERGE CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW. SO...STAY TUNED AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE RAIN
CHCS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 33
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EAST COAST INTO
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAY SEE
A WEAK SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 70 93 68 93 / 20 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 68 91 69 91 / 10 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 88 77 87 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
618 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.AVIATION...
ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF BEFORE 15Z. REST OF THE DAY VFR. COULD SEE A
SHRA/TSRA DEVELOP IN THE CLL AREA THIS AFTERNOON... BUT CONFIDENCE
TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF. COULD SEE MORE FOG DEVELOP LATER ON
TONIGHT AND ON INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
SEEING HIGH CLOUDS MOVING FROM THE NW TO THE SE TONIGHT WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG AS WELL AT THE USUAL SPOTS. ISOLATED SHRA WELL OFFSHORE
MOVING W/SW. EXPECT TO SEE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS
TODAY...BUT WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUN. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY.
WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHC POP ACROSS WESTERN AREAS WHERE HEATING AND
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY ISOLATED
SHRA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST HRRR RUN. WED
LOOKS DRIER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES FALLING TO
BELOW AN INCH AREAWIDE. ON THU SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LEVELS
WILL ARRIVE FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED
WITH THIS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF
SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS SE AREAS ON FRI. SO...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UPWARD
FOR FRI. EXPECT SLIGHT CHC POPS NEAR THE COAST THIS WEEKEND AND
MAINLY DRY INLAND.
AS MID/UPPER HEIGHTS FALL LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND EXPECT
MAX TEMPS TO DECREASE. SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EMERGE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF BY SUN. THE ECMWF HAS THE MID/UPPER LOW WELL TO
THE SW OF THE GFS...CENTERED NEAR S TX...WHILE THE GFS HAS THIS
FEATURE NEAR NE TX. BOTH MODELS ARE ADVERTISING A SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FROM THE YUCATAN IN THE MON-WED TIME FRAME.
AFTER TUE/WED...THEY DIVERGE CONCERNING THE MOVEMENT OF THE SFC
LOW. SO...STAY TUNED AS THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE CONCERNING THE RAIN
CHCS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PD AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 33
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE EAST COAST INTO
EASTERN TEXAS AND LOWER PRESSURE NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MAY SEE
A WEAK SEABREEZE EACH AFTERNOON PRODUCING A FEW HOURS OF SOUTHEAST
WINDS. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CAUTION CRITERIA THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 95 70 93 68 93 / 20 0 0 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 93 68 91 69 91 / 10 0 0 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 89 78 88 77 87 / 10 0 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.AVIATION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING AS AFTERNOON CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH MOTION SLOW
AND ERRATIC. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY OF A CELL NEAR
ANY OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS WITH MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS BUT A BRIEF SUB-VFR CIG/VSBY CANNOT BE RULED OUT. KAPF
IS CURRENTLY 4SM IN TSRA WITH THIS PARTICULAR CELL DRIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST AND MAY BE POSSIBLE TO END THESE CONDITIONS EARLIER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE RULE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015/
UPDATE...
WILL ALTER THE FORECAST SLIGHTLY ON THE MORNING UPDATE BASED ON
MORNING TRENDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GET AN EARLIER
START THAN YESTERDAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS
BUT A COUPLE OF SMALL INVERSIONS PERSIST WHICH WILL NO DOUBT
INHIBIT SOMEWHAT STRONGER UPDRAFTS UNTIL THE ATMOSPHERE CAN
OVERCOME THOSE CAPS. STEERING FLOW IS VERY WEAK BUT THE HRRR SHOWS
A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO
THE AVERAGE WIND FIELD IS OUT OF THE WEST BUT AT SPEEDS OF MOSTLY
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES. STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS
AND IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT ANY
SITE. SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME L/V AFT 00Z THIS
EVENING.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LINGERING SFC/LOW LEVEL TROUGH
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EXTENDING WEST FROM LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ACTING AS A BOUNDARY OF SORTS, SEPARATING DRIER AIR OVER
AND NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA FROM HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL EVER-SO-SLOWLY DRIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHICH WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MOISTURE ALSO SPREADING NORTH OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THIS TIME AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE MOISTURE INCREASE AS
WELL AS PROVIDE SOME UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. BY THURSDAY, MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD HAVE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OR OVER 2
INCHES.
FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH HIGHEST POPS WILL AGAIN BE GENERALLY SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOLLOWING THE MOISTURE PATTERN, INDICATIONS ARE THAT
THERE WILL BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS/TSTMS COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO DAYS. THEREFORE WILL NUDGE
POPS HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. STEERING FLOW TODAY WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH, BUT LIGHT ENOUGH FOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO
CAUSE CELLS TO PROPAGATE TOWARD THE COASTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY TODAY, WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE BUT NOT OUT OF THE ORDINARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY
RATHER HIGH TONIGHT ALONG THE GULF COAST AND MIA/FTL AREA ALONG
THE EAST COAST AS MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MOVES AROUND THE TROUGH AXIS
IN THE GULF AND ENHANCES SHOWERS/TSTMS. THE GRADUAL UPWARD TREND
IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUES WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON
THURSDAY AS IMPULSES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE
TROUGH STILL OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. BY THURSDAY, FAIRLY UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF 60/70% POPS AREA-WIDE. INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT STILL ENOUGH FOR GENERAL
TSTMS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL ALSO LOWER THE MAX TEMPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY IN THE MID/UPPER
80S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S OVER GLADES COUNTY,
WITH 70S ELSEWHERE...THEN 70S AREA-WIDE THURSDAY AND BEYOND.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY,
WITH ONE MORE DAY OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP. THE WEEKEND RIGHT NOW
LOOKS NOT AS WET AS THE WORK WEEK AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. PRETTY MUCH TYPICAL LATE SEPTEMBER/RAINY
SEASON POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. MODELS STILL SHOWING LOW PRESSURE IN
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
MONDAY. STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM AFFECTS OUR
WEATHER, IF AT ALL, NEXT WEEK. /MOLLEDA
MARINE...
ASIDE FROM LOCALLY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4
FEET IN THE GULF STREAM OFF THE BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
COASTS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SMALL NORTH SWELL ENTERS THE
AREA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 86 75 88 / 20 40 30 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 76 87 76 88 / 40 50 50 60
MIAMI 75 87 76 87 / 40 50 50 60
NAPLES 74 88 74 88 / 40 40 30 60
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
651 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AS WEAK
LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL
INLAND WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD FIRM TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. THE REGIME WILL CHANGE LITTLE
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A SLUG OF MOISTURE
WORKING ITS WAY DOWN THE UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND REACHING THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AFTER 3-4
AM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA...INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON METRO AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL WITH PERHAPS A ROUGE SHOWER MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
BEACHES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE MID 70S
AT THE BEACHES.
THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX WILL OCCUR AT 421 AM EDT WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL LINGER
NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE AN ENTRENCHED COLD AIR DAMMING
REGIME PERSISTS AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE SC COAST
WILL MEANDER TO THE WEST...BRINGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN CHANCES TO
COASTAL SECTIONS. GIVEN THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
LOWER 80S AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL. THUS...DESPITE
INCREASING ONSHORE MOISTURE...THERE WILL PROBABLY NOT BE ENOUGH
LIFT FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL INLAND FROM THE COAST.
A RELATIVELY SIMILAR PATTERN WILL PERSIST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER WESTERN FLORIDA AND A COASTAL TROUGH PERSISTS
AT THE SURFACE. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE COAST
ON THURSDAY...SPREADING SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND ASCENT INTO
SOUTHERN SC DURING THE DAY. PERSISTENT COLD AIR DAMMING INLAND AND
OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM RISING ABOVE THE UPPER 70S.
ALTHOUGH THIS WILL SEVERELY LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY...
NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES INDICATE POTENTIAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY
SO WE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE
MAINTAINED POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP COVERAGE MAY DECREASE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE
LOW DISSIPATES AND THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN A
RATHER WEAKLY FORCED PATTERN ALOFT AS THE MID TO LATE WEEK BROAD
UPPER LOW DISSIPATES COMPLETELY. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST AS THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ILL DEFINED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ISN/T
PARTICULARLY HIGH...THOUGH THE GENERAL TREND IS DOWNWARD INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
RANGE...FAVORING THE COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KCHS...PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASING THAT MVFR CIGS WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL ROUGHLY 10-14Z. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS FOR CIGS
DROPPING TO IFR THRESHOLDS ATTM. EXPECT A RETURN TO VFR BY 14Z
ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE.
KSAV...THE LATEST MODEL SETS SUGGEST VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH CHANCES ARE ABOUT 40-45 PERCENT FOR MVFR CIGS
TO REACH THE TERMINAL 10-14Z. THE LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW NO
INDICATIONS OF CIGS BELOW 3 KFT ATTM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION...CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
INCREASE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. THESE INCREASED CHANCES WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND MUCH OF FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN INLAND WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
N/NE WINDS AND SEAS. GUSTS TO 25 KT AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 6-7 FT
JUSTIFY A CONTINUATION OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR AMZ350 AND
AMZ374. ELSEWHERE...CAPPED WINDS AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...STARTING ON WEDNESDAY THE LOCAL WATERS
WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND AN AREA OF
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW WILL MOVE BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE
COAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THE NORTHEAST GRADIENT
WILL BECOME ENHANCED. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTER
GRADIENT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR ALL
THE WATERS AT SOME POINT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THEREAFTER AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES. NORTHEAST
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM FRIDAY ONWARD...THOUGH SPEEDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED 15 KT.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE PROXIGEAN SPRING TIDES APPROACHING. WITH THE
EXPECTED EXTENDED PERIOD OF FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS AND LONG
FETCH...IT IS LIKELY WE WILL START APPROACHING COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.
RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW WITH SOME 9 SEC SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCE CREATES A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ON
WED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
305 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SERIES OF H7/H5 UPPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH A MEAN SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEAREST UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF SW KANSAS. PWATS AS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS
ARE NEARING 1.4-1.5 SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG I-70 IN COLORADO. THIS
STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH INTO SW AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
HIGHER CINH HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING (SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ALONG/EAST OF CO/KS
STATE LINE. A SECOND UPPER LOW/STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AROUND 06-09Z.
BEST INSTABILITY QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CONTINUOUS SOUTH TO NORTH BUILDING/TRAINING
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST AND SLOWS DOWN OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...ALLOWING FOR MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO
LINGER EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
POSSIBLE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...SO
WHILE BEST LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE
EAST. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN
FROM THE WEST...SO LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN
KANSAS MAY REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I SHOWED A DECREASING
TREND IN COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY
AS CLEARING/WAA IN THE WEST COULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS EAST OF FRONTAL
ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC
WHICH THEN TRANSLATES TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE COUNTRY THEN RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION WITH
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION.
AT JET LEVEL...THE GFS/CANADIAN/ECMWF WERE STARTING OUT A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE NAM. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS/CANADIAN WERE DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET/ECMWF. THE SREF WAS DOING THE BEST ON
THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE NAM/CANADIAN WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE GFS/SREF ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...JET IS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH WITH THE CLOSED OFF PORTION OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH VERY SLOWLY WITH THE TROUGH LINE NEAR THE
EASTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE DIFFERENT SHORTWAVES
ROTATE THROUGH...MAINLY ACROSS THE EAST...THROUGH THE NIGHT. SO
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EASTERN END.
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...BEHAVIOR OF THE UPPER LOW BECOMES
PROBLEMATIC DURING THIS TIME. EASTWARD PROGRESSION STOPS DURING THE
DAY WITH IT SLOWLY SINKING SOUTH. AGAIN DIFFERENT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
ROTATE AROUND THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE
EAST...WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. VERY
HARD TO TIME THESE OUT WITH DIFFERENT MODELS SHOWING DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS.
COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THETA-E LAPSE RATES VERY LOW AND
THE TQ INDEX SUPPORTIVE OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS. SO IT SHOULD NOT
TAKE TOO MUCH TO GET SHOWERS GOING. SO AT THIS TIME KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION. FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
THE MORNING. AM THINKING MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF SUNSHINE DUE TO THE
COLD POOL ALOFT. 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND THAT ALONG WITH THE CLOUD COVER LOWERED THE
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE IS COOLER THAN WHAT I HAVE IN
THERE.
UPPER LOW THEN STARTS BACKING UP TOWARD THE WEST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THIS PUTS THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WRAP AROUND TO OCCUR. FRONTOGENESIS AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES
SHOULD MAKE IT EASY FOR WHATEVER LIFT THERE IS TO START THE
PRECIPITATION. MODELS DO SHOW LIGHT QPF CONTINUING.
FRIDAY...UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST AND A LITTLE TO
THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE/FRONTOGENESIS
ROTATING AROUND THE NORTH AND WEST SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. AGAIN
COLD POOL REMAINS ON TOP OF US WITH THE NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE
RATES IN PLACE AND THE TQ INDEX SUPPORT OF INSTABILITY SHOWERS.
PROBLEM IS THE MODELS ARE NOT SHOWING A LOT OF MOISTURE. HOWEVER
AM NOT SURE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOTALLY CATCHING HIS UNUSUAL
SCENARIO. SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SINKING ON TOP OF US...MORE COLD AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA AND
THE CLOUD COVER...COOLED THE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FROM WHERE
THEY WERE.
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AFTER ABOUT A DAY INTO THIS PERIOD
THE MODELS...DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLES...START DIVERGING SIGNIFICANTLY.
IN FACT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE. SO CONFIDENCE IN THE OUTCOME OF THIS IS LOW.
CONSIDERING THE CURRENT FLOW PATTERN WOULD BELIEVE THAT THE
AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE. SAYING THAT THE GFS IS THE BIG
OUTLIER. THE ECMWF AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE CANADIAN ARE MORE
AMPLIFIED WITH THE CANADIAN ACTUALLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SOLUTION
FIELD.
SAYING ALL THAT...THE WPC MANUAL PROGS TAKE THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND
SIDE IN THAT DIRECTION. SO HAVE LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN MAKING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO WHAT THE INIT...WHICH IS DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GAVE. SO MADE NO CHANGES OVERALL TO WHAT I WAS GIVEN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 05-10Z TIME PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AT KGLD AFTER 12Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME GUIDANCE IS ONLY SHOWING PREVAILING 2500 KFT CIGS AT
KMCK AFTER 09Z...WITH ONLY TEMPO CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGLD.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO LOWER CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AT THIS
TIME...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
211 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
SERIES OF H7/H5 UPPER TROUGHS PROPAGATING THROUGH A MEAN SW FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE NEAREST UPPER LOW IS NOW MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA WITH PLUME OF RICH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTH OUT OF SW KANSAS. PWATS AS INDICATED BY RAP ANALYSIS
ARE NEARING 1.4-1.5 SOUTH OF OUR CWA. STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE LED TO ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
PROXIMITY TO STALLED FRONTAL ZONE ALONG I-70 IN COLORADO. THIS
STALLED COLD FRONT EXTENDS NORTH INTO SW AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE
HIGHER CINH HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF MAIN AREA OF LARGE SCALE
FORCING (SOUTH OF TROUGH AXIS. AS THIS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ALONG/EAST OF CO/KS
STATE LINE. A SECOND UPPER LOW/STRONG LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE
THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT AND GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A PARTICULARLY
STRONG PRECIP SIGNAL WITH THIS SECONDARY UPPER LOW AROUND 06-09Z.
BEST INSTABILITY QUICKLY DROPS OFF AFTER 00Z...HOWEVER STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CAPE WILL AT LEAST SUPPORT A THREAT FOR
EMBEDDED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS...DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTION...AND CONTINUOUS SOUTH TO NORTH BUILDING/TRAINING
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN WITH MANY
LOCATIONS RECEIVING ONE HALF TO ONE INCH...POSSIBLY HIGHER.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW SHIFT NORTHEAST AND SLOWS DOWN OVER CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...ALLOWING FOR MOIST/WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO LINGER
EAST OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SUPPORT POSSIBLE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON...SO WHILE BEST
LARGE SCALE FORCING IS NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE
CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE EAST. GUIDANCE IS
SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR TO ADVECT IN FROM THE
WEST...SO LOCATIONS IN EASTERN COLORADO AND FAR WESTERN KANSAS MAY
REMAIN DRY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. I SHOWED A DECREASING TREND IN
COVERAGE FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST. HIGH TEMPS ARE TRICKY AS
CLEARING/WAA IN THE WEST COULD SUPPORT MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS...WHILE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER/SHOWERS EAST OF FRONTAL
ZONE/SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HOLD HIGHS DOWN IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS WITH A BUILDING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS FRIDAY AND HEADING INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...A LINGERING CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
FRIDAY WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE
LINGERING COLD AIR FROM THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER IN
THE UPPER 70S.
ONCE THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD WITH SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND AND THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED/EMBEDDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OVERSPREAD BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH TO
THE NORTH FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
BEST COVERAGE WILL BE IN THE 05-10Z TIME PERIOD AT BOTH
TERMINALS...WITH COVERAGE DECREASING AT KGLD AFTER 12Z. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MODERATE SHOWERS...HOWEVER AT
THIS TIME GUIDANCE IS ONLY SHOWING PREVAILING 2500 KFT CIGS AT
KMCK AFTER 09Z...WITH ONLY TEMPO CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGLD.
CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO LOWER CONDITIONS BELOW VFR AT THIS
TIME...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT BOTH TERMINALS...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND NORTHEAST. THERE IS A WEAK LEE SIDE LOW NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AND THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ON THE OTHER SIDE OF OUR BORDER.
NOTHING HAS POPPED UP ON RADAR SO FAR...THOUGH...AND THE CU FIELD
IS RATHER SPARSE. AMPLE SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE CU ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW 80 DEGREE REPORTS NOTED. DEWPOINTS...
MEANWHILE...ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A FEW LOW 60S SEEN IN
THE EAST. WINDS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO
10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY ALL DEPICT A BENIGN
PATTERN CONSISTING OF FAST FLOW NORTH OF THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER
AND GENERALLY HIGH HEIGHTS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE WILL BE
A SMATTERING OF ENERGY EAST OF KENTUCKY ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE NATION.
EVEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATER
WEDNESDAY WILL WEAKEN AND SLOW WITH ITS APPROACH TOWARD THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS SUCH...PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO WIN THE
DAY. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 MODELS
FOR WX SPECIFICS IN A REGIME OF PERSISTENCE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE MORE OF THE SAME IN THIS STAGNANT
PATTERN. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL FALL TO VALUES JUST ABOVE
LAST NIGHT/S LOWS. EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES TOWARD DAWN...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND
LAKES. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH ANOTHER PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. A SIMILAR PATTERN CAN BE ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH READINGS AGAIN A NOTCH MILDER BUT WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS OF
LATE NIGHT FOG.
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS...USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL
GUIDANCE AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE NIGHT
BEFORE FAVORING THE SUPERBLEND FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURES TO BETTER CAPTURE THE EFFECTS OF AN
INVERSION ON OUR TERRAIN. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...SIMILAR TO MOS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON THURSDAY WITH A
PERSISTENT BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE CONUS.
TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS TO THE NORTH
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS WELL. THE AREA IN QUESTION WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE TROPICAL LOWS
MEANDERING NORTHERLY OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST
ATLANTIC COAST BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE EXPECTED
TOWARD DAWN. THIS WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AT AN EXTENT
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HAVE SET THEM ALL UP ACCORDINGLY. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
225 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK SO HAVE JUST UPDATED THE T AND TD
GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
13Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A PERSISTENT PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY IN CONTROL. THERE IS A LEE SIDE LOW
EVIDENT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS THAT MAY PROMPT SOME
WEAK CONVECTION IN THOSE PARTS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE LOWER HEIGHTS OF A LOCALIZED
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF KENTUCKY. EVEN THE HRRR SUGGESTS A
POTENTIAL FOR SPOTTY ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF THIS.
WILL KEEP EAST KENTUCKY DRY...THOUGH...GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
PATTERN WHILE HAVING THE HIGHEST...STILL JUST SINGLE DIGIT...POPS
OVER THE FAR EAST NEAR THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. THE EARLY
MORNING FOG AND DENSE FOG IS JUST ABOUT GONE SO WILL UPDATE TO
REMOVE THAT FROM THE HWO AND ZONES. TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
MOSTLY ON TRACK...RUNNING IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND UPPER
50S RESPECTIVELY. DID INFUSE THE LATEST SHORTBLEND GUIDANCE INTO
THEM AND ALSO ADJUST FOR THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. MEANWHILE
WINDS ARE LIGHT. JUST A SMATTERING OF LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FOUND IN THE EAST...SOME ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFTING FOG. EXPECT
THESE TO WANE INITIALLY BEFORE SOME BUILDUP IN THE AFTERNOON...
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONES AND HWO WITH THE
LATEST GRIDS SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ALIGN WITH
THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS..OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS ON
TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT...A TROUGH AXIS IS ALIGNED JUST WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WITH RIDGING FOUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST AND DAMPENING WITH TIME.
THIS WILL ALLOW RIDGING TO TAKE A BETTER HOLD ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.
BESIDES SOME CLOUDS IN THE EAST...ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH HIGHS REACHING A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...GENERALLY MID TO UPPER 70S. TONIGHT WILL
NOT BE AS COOL AS THIS MORNING...WITH LOWS GETTING DOWN INTO THE
LOWER 50S IN SOME OF THE COOLER SPOTS. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE
HIGHS A BIT MILDER STILL...WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES
EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BE IN FULL FORCE ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY TO START OFF THE EXTENDED...AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW GAINS
STRENGTH TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BORDERING
STATES. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH
FRIDAY...ALLOWING DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL...BUT SHOULD FINALLY START
TRACKING NORTHWARD AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND...REACHING KY BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST ECMWF...SEVERAL
SMALLER WAVES OF ENERGY WILL LIKELY ROTATE AROUND THIS
LOW...BRINGING SOME CHANCES OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
BORDERS BY FRIDAY AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE OTHER
HAND SPLITS THE LOW INTO TWO SECTIONS...ONE WHICH WILL DRIFT WELL
TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER WHICH WILL DRIFT JUST EAST OF THE STATE.
IF THIS IS THE CASE...WE MAY ONLY SEE PRECIP IN THE FAR EAST
DURING PEAK HEATING ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE...STUCK
WITH A MODEL CONSENSUS AND NEIGHBORING OFFICE COLLABORATION ON THE
TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED PRECIP BOTH DURING THE
WEEKEND AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
REGARDLESS...WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY BOUNDARIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION...SO ANY CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO DAYTIME
HEATING/INSTABILITY AND WILL BE WEAK AT BEST. AS SUCH...CONTINUED
WITH ONLY THE MENTION OF RAIN SHOWERS AND DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
THUNDER. WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE EAST
AS CLOUDS SLOWLY INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE NEARING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND INCREASING MOISTURE/RAIN CHANCES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT NO MAJOR
CAA OR WAA ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL
OCCUR...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY STATE AND VERY NEAR
SEASONABLE NORMS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY...STARTING OFF THE
PERIOD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN PLACE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES ACROSS THE REGION AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOW
80S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
PERSISTENCE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN.
ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN...PATCHY FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...CAN BE EXPECTED
TOWARD DAWN. THIS WILL AFFECT SOME OF THE TAF SITES AT AN EXTENT
SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING. HAVE SET THEM ALL UP ACCORDINGLY. WINDS
WILL AVERAGE AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/HYDRO/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...WHICH IS 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF SEPTEMBER.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAIN CONCERN IS CLOUDINESS TONIGHT POSSIBLE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO OUR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. WE EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN WELL NORTH
OF THE AREA BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE REST OF THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN DRY.
AT 1 PM...A FRONT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
WISCONSIN...NORTHERN IOWA...AND NEBRASKA. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PIVOT
CLOCKWISE AND SPREAD ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY PERSIST A GOOD PART OF
WEDNESDAY OVER NORTHERN LOWER WITH LESS IMPACT OVER SOUTHWEST
LOWER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE DOMINATED BY SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND LOCAL WINDS FROM THE
EAST...WHICH IS TYPICALLY A DRY PATTERN. THERE IS EXCELLENT
CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THIS...SO FORECAST CERTAINTY IS
GOOD.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR INTO
SUNDAY...WHICH IS WHEN DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP.
DRY WEATHER WITH 500MB RIDGING LOOKS TO BE A SOLID FORECAST THROUGH
SUNDAY. ON SUNDAY...THE GFS MAINTAINS THE RIDGING...WHILE
THE ECMWF DRIVES A TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ON MONDAY...THE
ECMWF SWINGS THE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT LAKES WHERE AS THE GFS
CONTINUES THE RIDGING. BIG DIFFERENCES ARE IN PLAY BY
TUESDAY...WHERE THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF HAS A TROUGH IN THE GREAT
LAKES AND A RIDGE IN THE PLAINS. THE GFS ON TUESDAY IS THE OPPOSITE.
BASED ON THE POOR CONTINUITY DECIDED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WAIT FOR MORE OF A CONSENSUS BEFORE FLIPPING THE
FORECAST COOLER AND WETTER FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DRY AND FAIR WEATHER WILL BE THE THEME OF THE LONG TERM...WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S EACH
DAY. AGAIN...CONFIDENCE SLIDES A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK GIVEN THE
MODEL VARIABILITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
VFR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS ONCE AGAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THE MAIN
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME FOG TONIGHT. ONLY HAVE
FOG IN THE TAFS AT KJXN AS ITS THE ONLY SITE THAT SAW IT LAST
NIGHT. THE FOG HAS BEEN VERY SHALLOW WITH NO HINTS OF STRATUS ON
THE FIRST DAYLIGHT SATELLITE PICS. EXPECTING THE SAME TONIGHT. FOG
WOULD BE IN THE 06Z-1030Z TIME FRAME AND BE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT
KJXN.
SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO THE WEST OF LAKE MICHIGAN MAY TREND TO
SNEAK INTO WEST CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ONLY BROUGHT 5000FT SCATTERED CLOUDS INTO KMKG.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LUDINGTON BUOY HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY OVER-PERFORMING AROUND 3 FEET THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. BIG SABLE POINT AND LUDINGTON SITES HAVE BEEN
REPORTING GUSTS OF 15 TO 20 KT FROM THE SOUTH WHICH MAY BE AIDING
THE WAVE GROWTH. ADDITIONALLY...RECENT HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A CORRIDOR
OF STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING JUST OFFSHORE.
EXPECT WINDS TO RELAX THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
A LAND BREEZE...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW WAVES TO DIMINISH. AFTER
THIS...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 319 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH THROUGH THIS WEEK. RIVER
LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD STEADY OR FALL SLOWLY THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...DUKE
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...TJT
MARINE...TJT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW THROUGH SRN CANADA. A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
LIFTING THROUGH SRN HUDSON BAY WITH ITS TAIL EXTENDING THROUGH NW
ONTARIO TO NRN MN. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM JUST
WEST OF JAMES BAY TO THE MN ARROWHEAD. WEAK MID LEVEL QVECTOR CONV
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV AND A NARROW RIBBON OF
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY (PWAT TO 1.1 INCHES AND MUCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG) SUPPORTED A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA OVER NRN LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE
WERE ONLY ISOLD SHRA FARTHER SW INTO NW WI WHERE THE MID LEVEL
FORCING WAS WEAKER.
TODAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CNTRL
UPPER MI BY AROUND 18Z AND WILL SAG INTO FAR SRN UPPER MI BY 00Z.
WITH ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND FORCING ALONG THIS FEATURE...EXPECT
MAINLY JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA OVER THE WEST HALF THIS MORNING AND OVER
THE SOUTH AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALSO LIMIT ANY INCREASE IN INSTABILITY. EVEN WITH
THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
TONIGHT...THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHRA/TSRA OVER THE FAR S CNTRL
IN THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. EXPECT PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER THE EAST WHERE THE GREATER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION NEAR THE 850 MB FRONTAL BOUNDARY
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO NW WI WILL BRING BRING SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES NEAR UPPER MI BUT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA
THROUGH 12Z/WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE UPPER JET WILL STRETCH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
CENTRAL CANADA IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A HIGH MOVING FROM THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THROUGH ONTARIO...AND THEN
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY SUNDAY. WITH THAT SETUP...DRY
CANADIAN AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL ATTEMPT TO LIMIT PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN
OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND LIFTS
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED THE BEST FORCING FARTHER
TO THE WEST WHEN COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO AND HAVE DONE THE SAME WITH
THE POP/QPF FORECAST (GREATEST FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST U.P. INTO
LAKE SUPERIOR. STILL THINK THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION COULD LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL U.P. ON WEDNESDAY...BUT
ONLY HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES. MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHOWERS AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
CONTINUES NORTH AND THEN THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS
LEADS TO THE FLOW BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE THERMAL GRADIENT AND
IN TURN WEAKENING THE FORCING. WILL FOLLOW THAT IDEA FOR THE
POPS/QPF...SHIFTING IT MORE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES EAST. LATEST FORECAST STILL HAS THE
BEST QPF OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND TOWARDS MINNESOTA...WITH
AROUND OR A LITTLE OVER A HALF AN INCH FROM THE KEWEENAW THROUGH
IRONWOOD...THEN TAPERING OFF TO LITTLE OR NOW RAIN OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN. WHILE INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED
(MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 200 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES GENERALLY BELOW 5.5 C/KM)...DID SHOW SLIGHT THUNDER CHANCES
FOR THE WESTERN U.P. AND LAKE SUPERIOR.
MID LEVEL FORCING WEAKENS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND
EXPECT A DIMINISHING TREND TO THE SHOWERS. AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES SOUTHEAST FROM JAMES BAY ON FRIDAY...A RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. EXPECT DRIER
AIR TO BECOME ESTABLISHED AND LEAD TO A NICE FALL WEEKEND ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFYING OVER CENTRAL CANADA ON
FRIDAY AND SHIFTING INTO EASTERN CANADA ON SATURDAY...WARM
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SETUP OVER THE REGION AND PRODUCE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES (HIGHS AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) FOR THE
WEEKEND. ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE AREA BEING BRUSHED BY A
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON MONDAY AND WILL HAVE
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD...ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND THE
CFS SHOW THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINING THROUGH THE FIRST
WEEK OF OCTOBER AND BOTH INDICATE OCTOBER WILL RECORD ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE MONTH AS A WHOLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR WITH WSHFT TO THE NW FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LATE WED MORNING AT IWD
WITH SOME SHOWERS IN THE AREA THEN.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 25
KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES FROM NRN ONTARIO TO QUEBEC.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
108 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MID LEVEL FGEN WAS LEADING TO CLOUDS OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THE RAP SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THAT AT THIS
TIME. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA TODAY BUT
LEFT TEMPERATURES THE SAME AT THIS TIME AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
THAT WAS DEPICTING THE CLOUDS WERE CLOSE TO OUR CURRENT MAX TEMP
FORECAST.
THERE WERE ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP ON AREA RADAR...BUT FEEL
THE DRY LOW-MID LAYER WILL AID IN KEEPING NORTHERN MINNESOTA DRY
THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...TO DULUTH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. RADAR IMAGERY IS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT ECHOES/SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS
HAVE REMAINED DRY OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN TODAY...BEFORE STALLING OVER CENTRAL WIS
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS FOR AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR STORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY.
MEANWHILE...A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR MASS WILL BUILD
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL INTO THE 30S AND 40S
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS WHICH
WILL HELP MODERATE TEMPS SOME IN THE WESTERN ZONES.
A SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY...PUSHING A
WARM FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTH...REACHING THE IRON RANGE/ARROWHEAD REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY FOR
A SLOWER TIMING OF THE WARM FRONT. A RESULTING EASTERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE 50S AND 60S...ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND
RAIN SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.5"
DURING THIS TIME...SO PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE WET. AN ELEVATED
TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND SHORTWAVES ASSOCIATED WITH A CUT OFF LOW IN
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND
LIKELY RESULT IN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LATEST MODELS APPEAR TO BE WETTER AND IN
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES.
THE PCPN WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE ELEVATED FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IN CANADA NOSES INTO THE NORTHLAND.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY...PROMOTING SUNNIER SKIES AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE RIDGE
WILL FLATTEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
DEVELOP. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND TO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S BY SUNDAY.
A COLD FRONT MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR
MONDAY...POSSIBLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS EARLY ON IN THE TAF
CYCLE. A SHORTWAVE HAS GENERATED SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHICH WILL MOVE INTO ALL
TERMINALS.
OVERNIGHT MOISTURE WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION FROM
THE SOUTHWEST...DUE TO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARDS. THIS WILL
LOWER CIGS...SPREAD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS INTO ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KINL. EXPECTING PRECIP TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 18Z AT KINL DUE TO DRIER AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS...AS
DEPICTED IN THE NAM/GFS/DLHWRF BUFR SOUNDINGS. ALL OTHER TERMINALS
WILL SEE MVFR CIGS/VISBY DEVELOP BETWEEN 12-15Z. FAIRLY CONFIDENT
THAT THERE WILL BE IFR CIGS/VISBY AT SOME POINT AS RAINFALL
BECOMES HEAVY OR A THUNDERSTORM PASSES THROUGH. UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT IN TIME ON HOW WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE...AS SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW VALUES OF CAPE TOWARDS THE END OF THE
FORECAST CYCLE WITH MODERATE 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 49 58 52 / 10 30 80 70
INL 65 42 57 49 / 10 10 40 60
BRD 70 51 63 57 / 10 70 80 70
HYR 70 46 65 56 / 10 40 80 70
ASX 70 47 62 53 / 10 20 70 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1223 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0306 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
Surface high pressure extending from northern New England to the
Great Lakes and southwestward into western Kentucky continues to
spread a drier than normal air mass over the eastern half of the
MO Ozarks this morning. A few lower to mid level clouds continued
to develop near the Kansas border as weak upslope flow has
developed where winds have a more southeast direction. The eastern
edge of upper level moisture associated with the remnants of
tropical depression 16E extends across eastern Nebraska southward
into northeast Texas.
These clouds will continue their gradual shift to the east and
should be overspreading our region by this afternoon and through
tonight. While this will slow afternoon heating, we`re already
starting out about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday. Therefore, expect
the net result will be high temperatures pretty similar to
yesterday.
The HRRR shows some weak and scattered precipitation developing
over the area this morning, but will discount that based on latest
trends. The NAM seems to have a better handle of precip but even
it is having a little trouble with overdeveloping precip this
morning. Would not be completely surprised to see a few light
showers develop over our western counties through today, but think
the chances are too low to carry in the forecast at this time.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0306 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
Still looks like a fairly quiet week weather-wise as the
westerlies remain over the northern Plains and upper Midwest as upper
level ridge builds over the region. The remnants of TD 16-E
gradually get absorbed as a weak wave in the westerlies and tracks
northeast across Nebraska into the eastern Dakotas and Minnesota
through Thursday. Thereafter, the extended models diverge a bit.
The GFS drops the disturbance southward along the eastern edge of
the retrograding upper ridge, and eventually evolves a cutoff low
over Arkansas by Saturday/Sunday. The ECMWF shows a similar trend
but develops the cutoff low further to the west. Will keep a dry
forecast going through Monday, but will need to watch the forecast
trend with this system and may need to add precip if GFS solution
evolves.
Temperatures should be warmest around midweek with the upper ridge
over the area and drop back a few degrees once the ridge shifts
back to the west late this week into the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
VFR conditions can be expected though this TAF period. Scattered
to broken cloud decks are expected off and on, but shouldn`t
present much of a problem as much of the cloud cover should be
mid/high level. Winds should remain southerly and generally below
10 knots.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Terry
LONG TERM...Terry
AVIATION...Frye
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE ANY STRATUS/FOG/POTENTIAL FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORY...AND INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
THE H5 PATTERN HAD A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSON BAY
WITH WESTERLY FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE H5 RIDGE WAS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER A
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND REMNANTS OF THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED THE ACTIVE WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS INTO
ONTARIO AND WITH THE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST U.S. DEEP MOISTURE FROM
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXTENDED INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.AND ROCKIES
INTO TEXAS AND ACROSS MEXICO. THE LATEST WSR-88D RADAR MOSAIC
SHOWED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.
LOCALLY...SOME OF THE CIRRUS WAS SPREADING INTO THE PLAINS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. OUR 00Z SOUNDING HAD DRIED OUT FROM H85 AND
ABOVE...HOWEVER THERE WAS DEEP MOISTURE BELOW THIS LAYER...
ACCOUNTING FOR THE PWAT OF 0.92 OF AN INCH. SURFACE METARS
REVEALED FOG...SOME DENSE AT 08Z WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.
THIS MORNING...THE SURFACE FRONT IS LOCATED NORTH OF MITCHEL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND O NEILL NEBRASKA. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER
60S AND DEPRESSIONS WILL REMAIN LOW. AREAS OF FOG ARE FAVORED
THROUGH 18Z...SOME DENSE...LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON IN NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA. THE RAP HAS THE FOCUS OF DENSE FOG IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
AND MAY NEED TO CONSIDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE ZONES.
THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 585DM HEIGHTS
WILL INCREASE TO 588DM TODAY WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HEIGHTS LOWER OVER COLORADO AS AN H5 SPEED MAX APPROACHES AND OMEGA
INCREASES. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS A DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE WITH
THE COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE WARMER AIR
ACROSS KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S NORTH...WITH MID 80S IN THE SOUTH. WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER
THE FRONT AND CONVERGENCE IN THE NORTH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSHOWER. THE RAP/HRRR SEEM TO FOCUS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE NAM IS FARTHER
NORTH AND IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE IN EXACT
LOCATION...BUT WILL MAINTAIN A LOW POP.
TONIGHT...THE OPEN TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES CLOSES OFF
WITH OMEGA INCREASING TO THE WEST AND TO THE NORTH. WITH THE
DOUBLE FRONT STRUCTURE THERE COULD BE A COUPLE OF AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE PRECIPITATION BECOMES EVEN MORE ORGANIZED
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN BECOMING LIKELY. WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. WE ARE OUTLOOKED IN
THE EXCESSIVE RAIN AREA FOR DAY THREE (WED/WED NIGHT)...BUT WILL
NEED TO SEE HOW THE STORM SYSTEM EVOLVES UNTIL THEN.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED...THE TROPICAL REMNANTS CONTINUE
TO AFFECT THE AREA...MORESO WITH THE EC COMPARED TO THE
NAM/GFS. LINGERED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE EXTENDED WITH MID LEVEL
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
AS OF 17Z SOME LIFR CIGS LINGER MAINLY WEST OF THE KOFK REGION.
THIS LOW CLOUD DECK WAS SLOWLY ERODING. KOFK HAD ALREADY GONE TO
MVFR CIGS. VCTS JUST SOUTH OF KLNK AND IT APPEARS IT WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. ALL THREE TAF SITES THEN REMAIN
RELATIVELY QUIET UNTIL LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTER 10Z
EXPECT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND ALL THREE SITES
HAVE TEMPO PERIODS TO REFLECT THIS AND TREND THAT DIRECTION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
948 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SYNOPSIS..A WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA WILL PRODUCE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER AREAS NEAR
AND SOUTH OF I-15 THROUGH THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...THE 12Z LAS SOUNDING AND RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
WILL BE LIMITED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD SHIELD LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING OVER CLARK...SAN BERNARDINO AND MOHAVE COUNTIES. OUR
FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON BACK SIDE OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION
EXTENDING FROM FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA UP ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA WE
WILL NOT SEE MUCH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THIS FEATURE. IT APPEARS THE
MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY MAY SEE ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON TO
INITIATE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THIS
POTENTIAL. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF I-15 WE SHOULD SEE SOME ISOLATED-
SCATTERE LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN
MOHAVE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. THE POP/WX/QPF GRIDS WERE TRIMMED BACK
TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHT WINDS SHOULD BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST APPROACHING 10 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SPRING
MOUNTAINS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COULD LEAD TO ERRATIC
WINDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOO TO MENTION IN THE TAF. CLEARING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY OR
THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ERRATIC WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...LOW CEILINGS
AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN LATER
TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. &&
.PREV DISCUSSION
232 AM PDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS WERE UNEVENTFUL UNTIL NEAR MIDNIGHT WHEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MOHAVE
COUNTY. RAIN GAUGES IN AND AROUND WIKIEUP HAVE THUS FAR THROUGH 2 AM
HAVE MEASURED .08-.12 INCHES OF RAIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY
MOVING WEST TO SOUTHWEST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA AS PACIFIC TROUGHING MOVES CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. AT THE SURFACE, OBSERVATIONS SHOW 60+ DEGREE
DEWPOINTS HAVE MOVED INTO THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY AND AS FAR NORTH AS
MESQUITE NV. THE FAR NORTHERN AREAS OF THE CWA REMAIN DRY AT THE
SURFACE WITH TEENS AND 20S FOR DEWPOINT TEMPS.
FOR TODAY, THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST DESERTS. THE 00Z GFS HAS THE TROUGH AXIS EAST OF
MOHAVE COUNTY BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM THE
TROUGH DIMINISHING AS IT HEADS EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTION TODAY WILL BE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15 WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE A BIT FURTHER
NORTH OF THIS LINE WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARE
FORECAST. MODEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGS AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SUGGEST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD RAPIDLY END TONIGHT
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VEGAS COULD HIT 100
DEGREES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
USING A BLEND OF THE ECMWF/CMC THIS MORNING AS LAST FEW RUNS OF THE
GFS HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. THE ECMWF/CMC BOTH ARE NOW
SLOWER/LAGGING AN UPPER TROUGH OFF SHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST WELL
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR US, DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH THAT MEANS A
STRONG RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. BUMPED UP
HIGHS SOME MORE AS GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GET WARMER. NOW WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH RUNNING SOME 7 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS
WEEKEND. &&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
HOWEVER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. &&
$$
UPDATE...ADAIR
PREV DISCUSSION...SALMEN/PIERCE
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1232 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN LINE
WITH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF PASSING JET STREAK. HAVE ADJUSTED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN LINE WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...LIFTING
THE PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHEAST AS JET STREAK MOVES OUT OF THE
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS VERY LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE I-94
CORRIDOR CENTRAL. GIVEN DRY LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE...MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY NOT REACHING THE GROUND. ONGOING FORECAST
BLENDED TO OBSERVED TRENDS AND A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE
08-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH CAPTURES RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WEST THROUGH
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING...LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
LOCAL/REGIONAL RADAR SHOW A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS STRETCHED WEST TO EAST...FROM CENTRAL MONTANA INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO COOL WITH
CORRESPONDING HIGHER REFLECTIVITY AS VERTICAL MOTION/LARGE SCALE
ASCENT BEING ATTRIBUTED TO A DEPARTING 110KT JET MAX IN SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WITHE THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OVER NORTHEAST MONTANA...
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PER 300K/305K PRESSURE SURFACE...AND MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING REPORTED AT BEACH WITH CLOUD
BASES REPORTED AT 6KFT AND 9KFT. MODELS AGREE WITH THIS BAND
LIFTING NORTH DURING THE DAY BUT AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT/AREAL
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION SEEMED TO BE LACKING. STARTED WITH THE
CURRENT RADAR FOR POP TRENDS...AND THEN UTILIZED A MODEL BLEND OF
THE HRRR/RAP13/NAM/GFS/ECMWF/PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 25 MPH...AS HIGHS TOP OUT IN THE 60S.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS OUR NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE NOW LOCATED OVER
NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO. AS THIS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA WITH
AN ATTENDING WARM FRONT WILL REACH INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
DAKOTA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
BE IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THEN TAPERING OFF QUICKLY AS YOU HEAD
WEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.
THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON A RELATIVELY COOL...BUT STILL SEASONABLE...WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S NORTHWEST OF THE SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM
FORECAST TO IMPACT THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS OF NOW...THE
MAIN IMPACT OF HEAVY RAIN WITH THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED SHOULD THE FORECAST TRACK SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST.
THEREAFTER...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY ONWARD. AS A RESULT...A
WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S IS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GIVEN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...NEAR
DAILY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
SOME SHOWERS PASSING OVER NORTHERN LOCATIONS. CIGS WILL
DETERIORATE OVER THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING TO MVFR
LEVELS...AND WILL REMAIN LOWERED THROUGH MID-DAY. SHRA MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS WEDNESDAY MORNING OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JJS