Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/21/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
746 PM MST SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALSO FORECAST AND A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY OUT LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
NOTE: THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS STILL FORECAST FOR OUR
AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS POSTED. DETAILS BELOW.
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 16-E HAVE BEEN SLOWLY
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SINCE THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE ALMOST
COMPLETELY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS OF 02Z. QUITE A BIT OF CONVECTION
HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER
/CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED CONSIDERABLY AND IN-CLOUD LIGHTNING HAS
JUMPED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE 00Z/. MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN CONFINED TO THE UPPER LEVELS THUS FAR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA /SFC DEWPOINTS
STILL IN THE MID 50S AND 00Z SOUNDINGS ONLY SHOWING SATURATION AROUND
300MB/. HOWEVER...THE FIRST REFLECTION OF INCREASED SURFACE MOISTURE
IS BECOMING APPARENT AT YUMA AS WINDS HAVE TURNED AROUND OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND KYUX RADAR IS SHOWING ENHANCED INBOUND VELOCITIES FROM THE
GULF OF CALIFORNIA. DEWPOINTS HAVE TAKEN A BIT OF A JUMP AND THIS
TREND HAS BEEN CAPTURED WELL BY THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
BIG-PICTURE OUTLOOK REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE /WELL INTO THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-LATE SEPTEMBER/ IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LATEST
AVAILABLE 00Z DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH 12Z PROBABILISTIC
DATASETS APPEAR TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES /AND AMOUNTS/
IN THE 00Z-12Z TUESDAY TIME PERIOD. AS THIS IS ALREADY REFLECTED WELL
IN THE INHERITED FORECASTS...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NECESSARY.
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS
EVENING/EARLY MONDAY MORNING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BUT THE HEAVIER/MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS STILL SEVERAL
HOURS AWAY. FOR THIS EVENING...SIMPLY MAKING NEAR-TERM ADJUSTMENTS
BASED ON OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY TROPICAL TYPE RAINFALL IS COMING INTO BETTER
FOCUS. MANY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETERS WILL COME TOGETHER FOR 3 SOURCES
OR MECHANISMS FOR RAIN. 1...A LARGE AND FAIRLY STRONG PACIFIC TROF
LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
TOWARD THE SAN DIEGO COAST TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC WINDS WILL
HELP TO DRAW A TROPICAL FEATURE NORTHWARD...WHICH RESEMBLES A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...FROM JUST OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON TO JUST SOUTHEAST OF YUMA BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE IS DYNAMIC. IT CONTAINS 20 TO 40 KNOT 850/700 MB SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST WINDS...REPLETE WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
TROPICAL WARM LOW LEVEL RAINFALL...INCLUDING ENHANCE UPSLOPE RAIN
OVER THE SMALLER MTNS OF SOUTHERN AZ. 2...GENERAL RAINFALL IS ALSO
EXPECTED FROM MID/UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICAL SUPPORT. AND 3... THUNDER-
STORM RAIN. IN FACT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SO STRONG THAT MODELED
SOUNDINGS FORECAST CONVECTIVE TRIGGER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S IN SOUTHWEST AZ MONDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL TROPICAL LIKE CIRCULATION CENTER OF 15 TO 30 KNOT
850/700 MB WINDS...AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...IS FORECAST TO MOVE
FROM A POSITION 100 MILES WEST OF TUCSON LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...TO
NEAR PHOENIX BY 11 PM MON. THEREFORE THE BULK OF THE UPSLOPE WARM
RAIN SHOULD FALL BETWEEN PHOENIX AND GLOBE MIAMI...BUT MORE FOCUSED
IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY WHERE UP TO 3 INCHES STORM TOTAL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED.
TUESDAY...
THE BULK OF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH VERY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE DEPOSITED BY ANTECEDENT
RAIN...AND A DYNAMICAL PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS SOUTHERN CA/WESTERN AZ BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON...CONVECTIVE
RAINS ARE FORECAST. UNI-DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL RESULT IN FAST MOVING
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG WET DOWNBURST
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND HAIL...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ INCLUDING PHOENIX.
WEDNESDAY...
STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THERE
WILL BE A MARKED CLEARING AND DRYING TREND FROM THE WEST AS THE UPPER
LOW QUICKLY MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
STARTS TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. POPS WILL LOWER INTO
THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY MOST PLACES BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPS WEDNESDAY WILL RISE A FEW DEGREES BUT REMAIN WELL BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...
DRY WITH A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED AREA WIDE AS HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AS H5 HEIGHTS RISE ABOVE 590DM HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD AGAIN REACH INTO THE UPPER 90S TO LOW TRIPLE DIGITS OVER THE
WARMER LOWER DESERTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER AT ALL TERMINALS. RAIN IS
LIKELY TO ARRIVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FIRST /LIKELY IN THE
16Z-20Z TIME FRAME/...THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO THE PHOENIX AREA
CLOSER TO 21Z-00Z. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO 7-8KFT AREA-WIDE BUT
LOWER VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS.
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE AT THEIR WORST MONDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECTING TYPICAL DIURNAL HEADINGS
THROUGH LATE MONDAY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... WILL SEE CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DRY OUT
STARTING LATER WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD STARTING WEDNESDAY WITH
AFTERNOON MINIMUM READINGS INTO THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY LATE IN
THE WEEK. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WHILE TEMPERATURES GET A BOOST AND REACHING NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT BASED ON STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURE.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM MST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AZZ020>028.
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM PDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR CAZ030>033.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS/VASQUEZ/CB
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
234 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUN. THE NAM SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN DEVELOPING LATER TODAY OVER
SOME OF THE MTNS AND THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT ACRS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR IS DRY THRU ABOUT 00Z AND THEN IT SHOWS SOME ISOLD
PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE ERN PLAINS WHICH THEN EXITS THE STATE AROUND
07Z. MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW TONIGHT SO WL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL. OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACRS THE PLAINS...WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS. ALAMOSA AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE WL START BUILDING BACK OVR THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WL BRUSH NE AND E CENTRAL CO IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT HAS DEFINED SEPTEMBER IN
SE CO IS HERE TO STAY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS. POPS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NIL...EVEN FOR THE MT AREAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA REGION ON TUE AND INTO THE DESERT SW...IN A
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MOVE IT THROUGH NW CO ON WED. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SW MTS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL OVER AZ...SO FLASH FLOODING
RISK SHOULD BE LESS...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM THEN SHEARS OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION FOR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS
ON WED. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WILL SEE A SLIGHT FRONTAL PUSH ON THU BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO ITS SW-NE TRAJECTORY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WX WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY...AS A PACNW SYSTEM STARTS TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS DELIVERS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE NOT VERY WIDE...AND
SHOW A GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SO...NOT MUCH HOPE FOR ANY INTERESTING WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE A GOOD TIME
TO GET OUTSIDE PROJECTS DONE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS
INTO CO ON SUN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
...COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...
STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL FALL-LIKE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
ISOLD SHOWER OR TS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN TELLER
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME CU OVER THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO CANNOT
RULE IT OUT...AND WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND ALSO OVER THE HYR TRRN IN NRN FREMONT COUNTY AND
MOSQUITO RANGE THRU THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ELSEWHERE
SINCE THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW OVER THE ERN RANGES AND
CENTRAL MTS. ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING LATER TODAY SHOULD WIND DOWN
THIS EVE. THE HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION DRIFTING NWD TONIGHT...SO
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS OUT COMPLETELY IF THINGS DON`T DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVE.
OVERNIGHT...WILL BE COOL WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING.
SOME LOWS IN THE UPR 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS. A FEW AREAS OF
LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE.
SATURDAY...FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED AS THE COOLER AIR REMAINS
WITH US...AND SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE. SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS
REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY.
SHOULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE AREA SAT NIGHT MAY BRING SOME ISOLD
PCPN TO LOCATIONS FROM THE ERN MTNS TO THE ERN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD
END TOWARD SUN MORNING. AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
AND MON WITH DRY WX EXPECTED AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.
ON TUE AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR SRN CA AND THE SW FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND A CHANCE
FOR PCPN TO MAINLY THE SW CO MTNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE MSTR INTO THE AREA THAN THE GFS.
TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACRS CO AND WL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ISOLD TO SCT PCPN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER MOVING TROF OVR THE AREA WED AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THU...WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THERE
MAY BE SOME SCT PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS AREAS. AN UPR RIDGE IS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA ON FRI. THE GFS SHOWS A MONSOON MSTR TAP INTO
THE AREA FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER. SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD
TO SCT PCPN CHANCES ON FRI. IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS TUE
THRU FRI WL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS. SFC WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN. THERE IS A VERY LOW
CHANCE OF AN ISOLD -TSRA AT KCOS AND KPUB TOMOROW AFTERNOON...BUT
PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION IN TAF PRODUCT ATTM.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
206 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE TIMING OF ONSET OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. ONE MORE
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN NY. BASED ON TIMING FROM HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES
WRF...WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE.
MODELS INDICATING A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS AREA...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL MAINLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE NOTICEABLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
BUT MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THREE MONTHS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THE LAST DAY ALBANY OFFICIALLY HAD A TEMPERATURE IN THE
40S WAS BACK ON JUNE 20TH...WHICH WAS 49 DEGREES THAT MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR
NOT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LIFTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL
PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COOLER
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND MAINLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCSH
AT THE KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...AND 6SM -SHRA T KGFL. OTHERWISE
HAVE FORECAST ONLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN AND INTO THIS
EVENING AT 8 TO 12 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL
DECREASE SOMEWHAT AFTER SUNSET...BUT REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY FOG FORMATION TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
BETWEEN 05Z AND 09...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO WESTERLY AND THEN
NORTHWWEST TO NORTH AT 8 TO 10 KTS WITH GUSTS AORUND 15 KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN AFTN-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
141 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING SHOWERS
CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE NATURALLY AS MOST
LOCATIONS HAD LIFTED TO AT LEAST 0.5 MILES OR HIGHER. STILL SOME
AREAS WHERE FOG IS HANGING IN...BUT VSBYS ALL SHOWING SIGNS OF
RISING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REQUIRED A BIT MORE MANUAL ADJUSTMENT THIS
MORNING AS THE STRATUS DEC CONTINUES TO HOLD FAST AS OF 1O AM.
SKIES WERE THE FIRST THING THAT NEEDED ADJUSTING. HOWEVER...THIS
IS ALSO IMPACTING THE TEMPS...AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE...EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE NOT REALLY
HANDLING THIS WELL. SO STARTED WITH A BASELINE OF 2M HRRR TEMPS
COMBINED WITH OUR IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED MAV. THIS PRESENTED A
GOOD FOUNDATION BUT THEN MADE MANUAL EDITS FROM THERE BASED ON THE
TIMING OF CLOUD COVER CLEARING. THE OVERALL FINAL NUMBERS ARE A
BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY...WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST
LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WITH AN ONSHORE WIND. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
HUMID FEELING TO THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT FEEL OPPRESSIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...
AS INDICATED BY K INDICES...FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SHOWER OR TWO. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT.
INCREASING CLOUDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS...
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN NORTHWESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS WHERE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BEGIN BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY...MOST PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. EXPECT STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SUNDAY SO MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADA. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS NORTHERN JET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LOITERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE GFS EJECTS THIS LOW TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES IT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DRY AND WARM WITH 500 MB CONTOURS MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD BUFFER
SURFACE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...CLOSER TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE. POSITIONING OF THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING A NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STRONGEST NEAR THE EAST
MASSACHUSETTS SHORE. THIS SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WIND INLAND AND A BUFFERING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW NEAR THE
EASTERN SHORE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SFC TEMPS TO NEAR THE
DEW POINT. INLAND DEWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...COASTAL DEWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST FLOW WILL LIMIT
MIXING DEPTHS...BASED ON TEMPS AT 900 MB THIS WOULD SUPPORT MONDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE SHORE AND LOWER 70S
INLAND.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE
TIME OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE NOTED ON THE MODELS. MAYBE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF CLOUDS...BUT NO PCPN.
FRIDAY...THE ECMWF BUILDS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE SHALLOW WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER QUEBEC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALSO FARTHER NORTH
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CAROLINAS INTO
DELMARVA AREA. THIS BRINGS SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WELL
AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF ASSOCIATED UPPER JET. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO IS FOR DRY WEATHER. THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT ITS SUDDEN APPEARANCE ON THIS RUN AND IN
THE FINAL PERIOD OF THE FORECAST DOES NOT GENERATE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO WITH THE DRY ECMWF SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THROUGH 02Z TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH SSW FLOW 5-10 KT.
AFTER 02Z TONIGHT TO ABOUT 10Z TOMORROW MORNING...MODERATE
CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO LAST NIGHT WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
BUILDING FROM THE S COAST INLAND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TIMING MAY BE OFF SOMEWHAT IN THE TAFS. THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE
WILL BE THE RISK FOR SHWRS WHICH MAY SCOUR THINGS OUT TO MAINLY
MVFR ESPECIALLY NW OF A HFD-ORH-BVY LINE...AREAS SE MAY REMAIN
IFR/LIFR AT TIMES.
10Z TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT IMPROVEMENT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WINDS SHIFT
TO THE NW /PICKING UP WITH GUSTS 10-15 KT/. MAINLY VFR ALL
TERMINALS BY MID DAY...REMAINING VFR INTO SUN NIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY WITH TIMING
AND PERSISTENCE OF LATE NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY WITH TIMING
AND PERSISTENCE OF LATE NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS.
OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE INTERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THIN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MASS AND RI COASTAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTS WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN
DIMINISHING. THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND MASS BAY...POSSIBLY CAPE COD BAY. WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING SMALL
CRAFTS FOR SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
105 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION
TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
JUST SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON THE TIMING OF ONSET OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE CURRENT FORECAST GENERALLY IN LINE
WITH CURRENT DATA AND TRENDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. ONE MORE
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN NY. BASED ON TIMING FROM HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES
WRF...WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE.
MODELS INDICATING A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS AREA...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL MAINLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE NOTICEABLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
BUT MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THREE MONTHS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THE LAST DAY ALBANY OFFICIALLY HAD A TEMPERATURE IN THE
40S WAS BACK ON JUNE 20TH...WHICH WAS 49 DEGREES THAT MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR
NOT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LIFTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL
PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COOLER
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TODAY EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN AND EVENTUALLY
MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE IN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA FOR KGFL AFTER 03Z AND VCSH FOR KALB...KPSF AND KPOU BTWN
03Z AND 05Z AS SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO OVC035-050 BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME SCT035-045 LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS THE FLOW WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME 15-22 KTS EXPECTED AT
KGFL...KPSF AND ESPECIALLY KALB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BTWN 08-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1104 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING SOME SHOWERS
AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AROSS THE REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF THE CONNECTICUT VALLEY IN SOUTHEAST VERMONT WHERE
STRATUS IS STILL HANGING ON...BUT IT SHOULD BURN OFF BY AROUND
NOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS ALSO SEEN OVER LAKE ONTARIO...WHICH
WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE ADIRONDACKS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR TEMP ADJUSTMENTS...AND ASLO SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRETN CONDITIONS...
OTHERWISE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. ONE MORE
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW
RESULTING IN HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN NY. BASED ON TIMING FROM HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES
WRF...WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE.
MODELS INDICATING A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS AREA...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL MAINLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE NOTICEABLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
BUT MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THREE MONTHS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THE LAST DAY ALBANY OFFICIALLY HAD A TEMPERATURE IN THE
40S WAS BACK ON JUNE 20TH...WHICH WAS 49 DEGREES THAT MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR
NOT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LIFTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL
PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COOLER
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TODAY EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN AND EVENTUALLY
MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE IN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA FOR KGFL AFTER 03Z AND VCSH FOR KALB...KPSF AND KPOU BTWN
03Z AND 05Z AS SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO OVC035-050 BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME SCT035-045 LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS THE FLOW WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME 15-22 KTS EXPECTED AT
KGFL...KPSF AND ESPECIALLY KALB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BTWN 08-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...GJM/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
1002 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING JUST A FEW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH MAY BRING SHOWERS
CLOSE TO THE ISLANDS TUESDAY...OTHERWISE DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE NATURALLY AS MOST
LOCATIONS HAD LIFTED TO AT LEAST 0.5 MILES OR HIGHER. STILL SOME
AREAS WHERE FOG IS HANGING IN...BUT VSBYS ALL SHOWING SIGNS OF
RISING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REQUIRED A BIT MORE MANUAL ADJUSTMENT THIS
MORNING AS THE STRATUS DEC CONTINUES TO HOLD FAST AS OF 1O AM.
SKIES WERE THE FIRST THING THAT NEEDED ADJUSTING. HOWEVER...THIS
IS ALSO IMPACTING THE TEMPS...AND ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE...EVEN IN THE SHORT TERM ARE NOT REALLY
HANDLING THIS WELL. SO STARTED WITH A BASELINE OF 2M HRRR TEMPS
COMBINED WITH OUR IN-HOUSE BIAS CORRECTED MAV. THIS PRESENTED A
GOOD FOUNDATION BUT THEN MADE MANUAL EDITS FROM THERE BASED ON THE
TIMING OF CLOUD COVER CLEARING. THE OVERALL FINAL NUMBERS ARE A
BIT LOWER THAN PREVIOUS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING FOG BURNS OFF...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY
SUNNY...WARM DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOST
LOCATIONS. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH
COAST WITH AN ONSHORE WIND. INCREASING DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO A MORE
HUMID FEELING TO THE DAY...BUT IT SHOULD NOT FEEL OPPRESSIVE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH QUEBEC BRINGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AVAILABLE...
AS INDICATED BY K INDICES...FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. INSTABILITY AND
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE LACKING SO NO THUNDER IS EXPECTED. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD RAIN OVERNIGHT BUT SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY
HAVE A SHOWER OR TWO. DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL PWAT VALUES...RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH. NOT ENOUGH TO
MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE IN THE RAINFALL DEFICIT.
INCREASING CLOUDS...CHANCE OF SHOWERS...AND INCREASED DEWPOINTS...
WILL COMBINE TO KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES A BIT WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS MAY BE IN NORTHWESTERN
MASSACHUSETTS WHERE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT MAY BEGIN BY THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.
SUNDAY...MOST PRECIP SHOULD HAVE COME TO AN END BY SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY THAT A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER
ON THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EARLY BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BRINGING DRY WEATHER TO
THE REGION. EXPECT STRONG COLD ADVECTION TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET SUNDAY SO MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE PLEASANT WITH SUNNY SKIES
AND MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WITH NEAR-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND CANADA. SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
REMAINS SOUTH OF THIS NORTHERN JET THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW LOITERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST USA THROUGH THE
WEEK. THE GFS EJECTS THIS LOW TOWARD NEW ENGLAND AT THE END OF THE
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES IT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS DRY AND WARM WITH 500 MB CONTOURS MOSTLY
ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER A LOW LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WOULD BUFFER
SURFACE TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES...CLOSER TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE BELOW.
THE DAILIES...
SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE GENERAL
SUBSIDENCE. POSITIONING OF THE HIGH CENTER WILL BRING A NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...STRONGEST NEAR THE EAST
MASSACHUSETTS SHORE. THIS SUGGESTS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT
WIND INLAND AND A BUFFERING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND FLOW NEAR THE
EASTERN SHORE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING SFC TEMPS TO NEAR THE
DEW POINT. INLAND DEWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S...COASTAL DEWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. EAST FLOW WILL LIMIT
MIXING DEPTHS...BASED ON TEMPS AT 900 MB THIS WOULD SUPPORT MONDAY
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S NEAR THE SHORE AND LOWER 70S
INLAND.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL MUCH OF THE
TIME OVER NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE NOTED ON THE MODELS. MAYBE
ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF CLOUDS...BUT NO PCPN.
FRIDAY...THE ECMWF BUILDS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
WITH A NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW. THE GFS IS MORE SHALLOW WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER QUEBEC FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...ALSO FARTHER NORTH
WITH SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CAROLINAS INTO
DELMARVA AREA. THIS BRINGS SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH ON FRIDAY AS WELL
AS THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF ASSOCIATED UPPER JET. THE ECMWF
SCENARIO IS FOR DRY WEATHER. THE GFS SCENARIO WOULD SUGGEST A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ON FRIDAY...BUT ITS SUDDEN APPEARANCE ON THIS RUN AND IN
THE FINAL PERIOD OF THE FORECAST DOES NOT GENERATE A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE. WE WILL GO WITH THE DRY ECMWF SCENARIO.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. AREAS OF IFR/LIFR IN MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE CT
VALLEY AND IN RI/SOUTHEAST MASS. BUT THIS FOG WILL THIN THROUGH
THE MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SCT SHRA TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS
SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
WITH GUSTS 20 TO 25 KNOTS MAINLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND ISLANDS. EAST
TO NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE INTERIOR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
FOG MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD THIN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL BRING
LIGHT WINDS AND CALM SEAS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS
BUILD SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS. SCA
CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR BY SUNDAY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE MASS AND RI COASTAL WATERS. LOW LEVEL
FLOW SUPPORTS WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN
DIMINISHING. THESE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN 5 TO 7 FOOT SEAS ON THE
OUTER WATERS AND MASS BAY...POSSIBLY CAPE COD BAY. WINDS DIMINISH
THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE VERY SLOWLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING SMALL
CRAFTS FOR SEAS ON THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/RLG
NEAR TERM...DOODY/RLG
SHORT TERM...RLG
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...WTB/RLG
MARINE...WTB/RLG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 640 AM EDT...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ALREADY STARTING TO THIN OUT
AS EXPECTED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING LEAVING MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE DAY. ONE MORE WARM
DAY IS EXPECTED...WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN NY. BASED ON TIMING FROM HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES
WRF...WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE AFTER DARK.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE.
MODELS INDICATING A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS AREA...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL MAINLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE NOTICEABLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
BUT MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THREE MONTHS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THE LAST DAY ALBANY OFFICIALLY HAD A TEMPERATURE IN THE
40S WAS BACK ON JUNE 20TH...WHICH WAS 49 DEGREES THAT MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR
NOT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LIFTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL
PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COOLER
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TODAY EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN AND EVENTUALLY
MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE IN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA FOR KGFL AFTER 03Z AND VCSH FOR KALB...KPSF AND KPOU BTWN
03Z AND 05Z AS SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO OVC035-050 BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME SCT035-045 LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS THE FLOW WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME 15-22 KTS EXPECTED AT
KGFL...KPSF AND ESPECIALLY KALB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BTWN 08-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
620 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT...SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS
THAT FELL APART TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION YESTERDAY. THE CLOUDS
HAVE NOT PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING THOUGH...WITH 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WHERE A SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING...BUT THE COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONE MORE WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN NY. BASED ON TIMING FROM HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES
WRF...WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE.
MODELS INDICATING A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS AREA...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL MAINLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE NOTICEABLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
BUT MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THREE MONTHS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THE LAST DAY ALBANY OFFICIALLY HAD A TEMPERATURE IN THE
40S WAS BACK ON JUNE 20TH...WHICH WAS 49 DEGREES THAT MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR
NOT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LIFTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL
PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COOLER
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR TODAY EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN AND EVENTUALLY
MID CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON TO MOVE IN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE
AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WITH ITS PASSAGE TONIGHT. HAVE INCLUDED
-SHRA FOR KGFL AFTER 03Z AND VCSH FOR KALB...KPSF AND KPOU BTWN
03Z AND 05Z AS SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AS THEY
MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO OVC035-050 BTWN 03Z
AND 05Z. SKIES WILL THEN BECOME SCT035-045 LATE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TODAY AS THE FLOW WILL PICK UP
DURING THE DAY TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME 15-22 KTS EXPECTED AT
KGFL...KPSF AND ESPECIALLY KALB DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN BTWN 08-12 KTS THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
412 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 412 AM EDT...SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...WHICH ARE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM SHOWERS
THAT FELL APART TO THE WEST OF OUR REGION YESTERDAY. THE CLOUDS
HAVE NOT PREVENTED TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING THOUGH...WITH 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT WHERE A SOUTHERLY BREEZE HAS KEPT TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S. PATCHY FOG IS ALSO OCCURRING...BUT THE COVERAGE APPEARS
TO BE LESS THAN YESTERDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS SHOULD TEND TO THIN OUT SOMEWHAT LATER THIS MORNING...BEFORE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES. ONE MORE WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED...WITH SUNSHINE AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL START TO INCREASE FOR THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO WESTERN NY. BASED ON TIMING FROM HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES
WRF...WILL ONLY MENTION 20-30 POPS FOR HERKIMER/HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...PRECEDING A COLD FRONT PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS NY STATE.
MODELS INDICATING A NARROW RIBBON OF WEAK INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...SO WILL MENTION ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS FOR THIS AREA...BUT THERE WILL NOT
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUSTAIN TALL ENOUGH UPDRAFTS TO PRODUCE
STRONGER WINDS. MODELS INDICATE THE LINE OF SHOWERS WILL BE
WEAKENING SOMEWHAT AS THEY MOVE EAST DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO WILL MAINLY MENTION CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA WITH LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS.
THE COLD FRONT AND ANY ASSOCIATED SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE ENTIRE
AREA BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY BEHIND THE
FRONT AND WILL BE NOTICEABLE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
BUT MUCH COOLER THAN RECENT DAYS. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR THE COOLEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WE HAVE
SEEN IN THREE MONTHS. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S...WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS NORTH AND EAST
OF ALBANY. THE LAST DAY ALBANY OFFICIALLY HAD A TEMPERATURE IN THE
40S WAS BACK ON JUNE 20TH...WHICH WAS 49 DEGREES THAT MORNING.
TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS COLD AS THE PREVIOUS
NIGHT DUE TO SOME POSSIBLE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND A SLIGHT EASTERLY
BREEZE...AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM RETREATS TOWARDS
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND SEASONABLE AS A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN US. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST
FROM SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL
ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION ON THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME EXPECT
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FRIDAY AT THIS
POINT IS A DIFFICULT FORECAST AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON WHETHER OR
NOT MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH LIFTS NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AT THIS TIME THE GFS LIFTS MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. FOR NOW WILL
PLACE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. EXPECT HIGHS TUESDAY TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S AND
HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE COOLER
IF THE GFS IS CORRECT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. CONDITIONS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY AT KPSF AND KGFL WHERE THEY ARE PRONE TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG...EXPECTING IFR CONDITIONS TO OCCUR. HAVE FOG MENTIONED IN
KALB AND KPOU TAF HOWEVER IS LIMITED TO MIFG SINCE THEY HAVE NOT
HAD ISSUES THAT LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
EXPECTING SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO STREAM IN AND EVENTUALLY MID CLOUDS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO MOVE IN AHEAD AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL USHER A MUCH COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR
MASS INTO THE REGION WITH ITS PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT. HAVE
INCLUDED -SHRA FOR KGFL AFTER 03Z AND VCSH FOR KALB...KPSF AND
KPOU BTWN 03Z AND 05Z AS SHOWERS WILL BE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE
AS THEY MOVE SOUTH AND EAST. CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO OVC035-050
BTWN 03Z AND 05Z.
CALM WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY.
THE FLOW WILL PICK UP DURING THE DAY TO 8 TO 12 KNOTS WITH SOME GUSTS
EXPECTED AT KGFL...KPSF AND ESPECIALLY KALB DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL REMAIN BTWN 08-12 KTS SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A VERY WARM AIR MASS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE
ALONG THE EAST COAST. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND
USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT.
MIN RH VALUES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT.
WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
WINDS ON SUNDAY WILL BECOME NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS
EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA
RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...JPV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
206 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH TODAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND
THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON TRACK. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS OF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EXPECT THIS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT WHERE BETTER COOLING TAKES
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WERE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED DOWN. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER REMARKABLE CHANGES MADE.
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...AND AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG MAINLY AWAY FROM NYC
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS WILL BE 55-60...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE. KEPT LOWS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR DESPITE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S SINCE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWLY
MOISTENING TONIGHT IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z NAM AND NOW 12Z RAP ARE INDICATING AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...MOVING UP THE NJ COAST TOWARD WRN
LONG ISLAND/CT AND SKIRTING NYC. NAM QPF OVERDONE BUT NOW THINK
THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
A COUPLE DEG HIGHER THAN COMPOSITE MOS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY...WITH LOWER/MID 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS LATE SAT NIGHT. LIFT LOOKS
WEAK AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING THE PAC NW COAST DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SE US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PART OF THIS ENERGY SEPARATES ITSELF FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND CUTS OFF OVER THE SE US FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD...WHILE THE REST SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES IN THE INTERACTION OF THE
DIGGING EASTERN TROUGH WITH PIECES OF SUB-TROPICAL ENERGY ROUNDING
DOMINANT ATLANTIC RIDGING...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS
MOISTURE/ENERGY MAY GET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NW PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...A BREEZY NE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
A MAINLY DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN MARITIMES AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE COURTESY OF A SERIES OF LOWS
DRIFTING NE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE OFFSHORE
LOW/S INTO MIDWEEK...BUT NHC SEES A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT
OF TROPICAL/SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION TO AFFECTED BY SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MIDWEEK AS THE EARLIER MENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH...BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE/S AND STRENGTH
OF UPPER CONFLUENCE/SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE.
OTHERWISE...THE SAME MIDWEEK PATTERN COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
IN THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH...A BROAD CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH...AND DOMINANT OFFSHORE RIDGING TO THE SE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST.
THIS REMAINS A CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH THE EXTENT OF
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS REMAINS EXTREMELY DRY JUST OFF THE
DECK WITH A LIGHT S/SW FLOW AT THE SFC. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE
SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THAT COULD LIMIT
THE COVERAGE. FOR NOW...WILL GO IFR AT KGON BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS...AND PATCHY MVFR ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE NYC TERMINALS.
GUIDANCE VARIES WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STRATUS/FOG ACROSS CT.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT NIGHT...VFR. CHC OF WIDELY SCT SHOWERS WITH COLD FROPA.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR TUE. N-NE GUSTS 20-25KT
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE.
SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL WATERS IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCA DEVELOPS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW.
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...USUALLY
UNDER-PREDICTED IN WNA GUIDANCE. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT
DURING THIS TIME ACROSS ALL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY KBDI
VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 300 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...PREDECESSOR DRY CONDS WITH A GUSTY N FLOW
AND LOW RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
MON-FRI TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE FORECAST OF PROLONGED E-NE FLOW.
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS APPEARS LOW FOR MON...BUT MAY INCREASE IN
THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCALES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WITH GRADUALLY RISING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN/JM
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...DW
AVIATION...24
MARINE...GOODMAN/NV
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
917 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MID AND LEVEL WINDS SHOW
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE W WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW. WEAK UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER FL PANHANDLE MOVING EWD. BROAD MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY WITH A SFC
COLD FRONT ACROSS NC...NRN GA/AL/MS. WEAK PRES GRADIENT OVER OUR
AREA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS WITH ONLY SCT/BKN HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT TIMES AND OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES TO LOWER MIN TEMPS IN A FEW LOCATIONS FOR THE
UPDATE BASED ON TRENDS AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE. THE BOUNDARY LAYER
THIS AFTN MIXED OUT WELL WITH DEWPOINTS IN SOME OF OUR NRN ZONES
IN THE MID 50S...SO LOOKS LIKE FOG POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW AT THIS
TIME. THIS THINKING IS ALSO REFLECTED IN SREF AND HRRR GUIDANCE
WITH LITTLE TO NO FOG PREDICTED.
&&
.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR NEXT 24 HRS. LITTLE TO NO FOG EXPECTED
LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...E TO SE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL TURN TO THE S BY MORNING.
SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3 FT. LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FOR THE CWF UPDATE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 65 89 69 85 / 0 20 10 30
SSI 72 83 72 79 / 0 10 10 40
JAX 68 90 72 82 / 0 10 10 40
SGJ 72 88 74 81 / 0 10 0 40
GNV 67 90 69 86 / 0 10 0 40
OCF 69 90 70 87 / 0 10 0 40
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHASHY/PETERSON/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
823 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERALLY
BENIGN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION THIS EVENING. STRONG
ZONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST...BEFORE SPLITTING INTO A NORTHERN BRANCH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA...AND A SOUTHERN BRANCH DIVING INTO THE OHIO/TN VALLEYS.
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER FLORIDA IS RATHER WEAK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES OF NOTE IN THE HEIGHT FIELD. HOWEVER...WE DO FIND A DEEP
SWATH OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT ABOVE 10-15KFT. THE DRY AIR ALOFT WAS
SAMPLED VERY WELL BY THE EVENING 00Z KTBW SOUNDING PROFILE ABOVE
700MB. THE PW WAS 1.3"...WHICH IS QUITE DRY FOR MID SEPTEMBER...
RUNNING IN THE 25TH PERCENTILE OF VALUES.
THIS DRY AIR IS DEEPEST AND MOST DEFINED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...WHERE BARELY AN ISOLATED SHOWER WAS ABLE
TO TAKE ROOT THIS PAST AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED
CONVECTION WAS ABLE TO FOCUS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE...OVER FAR
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS TO LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. AS OF 8 PM EDT...WE CONTINUE TO SEE PERIODIC FLARE UPS
OF SHOWERS OVER CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES...AND MAY SEE A BRIEF
SHOWER OVER THESE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH ABOUT 2-3Z THIS
EVENING. THEREAFTER...THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND GENERAL
HOSTILITY OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL COLUMN TOWARD DEEP CONVECTION
SHOULD SETTLE DOWN ANY UPDRAFTS AND RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE MID SEPTEMBER NIGHT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE STATE CHANGES LITTLE FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS OF MONDAY...AND HENCE THE FORECASTS WILL CHANGE
LITTLE AS WELL. A SCT CUMULUS FIELD WILL DEVELOP REGION-WIDE BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THE DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS...AND
RAPID ENTRAINMENT OF THE DRY AIR INTO ANY UPDRAFTS SHOULD KEEP
THESE CUMULUS COLUMNS RATHER SHALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.
ANY LATE DAY SHOWERS THAT CAN DEVELOP AFTER 19-20Z WILL BE
CONFINED TO CHARLOTTE/LEE...AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN HIGHLANDS
COUNTIES. EVEN FOR THESE LOCATIONS...ANY CONVECTION SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BE DRY.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
THIS EVENING. JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER AT KFMY/KRSW
THROUGH 02Z...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW ENOUGH TO
KEEP MENTION OUT OF THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS AROUND KLAL/KPGD CLOSE TO DAWN...BUT
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY. SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF LATE
DAT SHOWER AT KFMY/KRSW.
&&
.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS WEAK
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES IN THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL STRENGTHEN THE FLOW OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST...WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 75 89 / 10 0 10 20
FMY 75 91 74 90 / 20 10 10 20
GIF 72 91 72 89 / 10 0 0 20
SRQ 74 89 74 89 / 10 0 0 20
BKV 69 91 69 90 / 10 0 10 30
SPG 77 90 76 89 / 10 0 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
324 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A RARE, QUIET RADAR FOR A SUMMER AFTERNOON HERE IN SOUTH FL. THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND H85...AND CONVECTION
SURE IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING. A MAJOR FACTOR IS LACK OF
CONVERGENCE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH EVERYWHERE AND
NO ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FORMING. HRRR SHOWS AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING BY 5 PM...BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. GOES SOUNDER PW
FIELDS SHOW DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF MOVING IN AS WELL. GIVEN ALL
OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY-EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A MEAN WIND FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW WHILE SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE W-NW EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST-EAST AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED-SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH FOCUS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON MONDAY.
BY MID NEXT WEEK A MID LEVEL LOW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THEN RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS CUT OFF LOW HAS
BEEN CHANGING AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW WET AND STORMY
IT GETS HERE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA
&&
.MARINE...
NO CONCERNS AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
4 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 89 / 30 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 78 89 / 30 40 40 30
MIAMI 77 92 78 90 / 20 50 30 40
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 20 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS HAS SEVERELY LIMITED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. THERE STILL MAY BE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT IT TO BE
ISOLATED AT BEST. IT MAY NOT DEVELOP AT ALL. GIVEN THIS, REMOVED
ANY MENTION OF CONVECTION. SO, VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS ONCE AGAIN, LEAVING ONLY THE COASTAL AREAS UNDER A
CHANCE, WITH THE OTHER AREAS DROPPED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR, THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LATE MORNING, AND THE HRRR, WHICH ONLY
DEVELOPS A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
UPDATE...
MUCH DIFFERENT MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR. WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR KEEPS THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY REAL CHANGES ARE TO SKY COVER AND
TO ADJUST WIND TO INCLUDE MORE CURRENT MODEL RUNS, ALSO REDUCE
POPS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, GIVEN THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE HRRR. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING FAIRLY WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OFF THE
FL/GA COAST THIS MORNING WHILE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THE WEAKER
GULF LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT`S BEEN OVER THE STATE WILL ALSO BEGIN
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE AXIS WILL GET SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO S FLORIDA AS A RESULTING BRINGING COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WAVER VAPOR SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED OUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT MODELS BRING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW HAS PICKED UP OUT OF THE SW WITH THE CURRENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING MOVING AT AROUND
20KTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SPEED THROUGH THE DAY SO WE WILL SEE
FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR EAST COAST...WITH MODELS FOCUSING
MORE TOWARDS BROWARD /MIAMI-DADE WHERE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
LIES. GIVEN STORM MOTION...DON`T EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT A CONCERN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME TRAINING IN
SPOTS GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. OVERALL COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY JUST OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...TAKING WITH IT THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH LINGERS
OVER S FLORIDA WITH CONTINUING DEEP AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK FURTHER DOWN THE PENINSULA IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTANT LOW...PUSHING THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY...STILL FAVORING THE EAST COAST AND
FAR SOUTH PENINSULA IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT FURTHER
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES BECOMING
THE MAIN DRIVER OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF
THE LOW INTO THE STATE MON-WED WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT 20-30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT
ON WED WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING COMPONENT REMAINS IN PLACE ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE BEST (THOUGH MUCH LOWER) RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO MID WEEK
WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR.
MID TO LATE WEEK MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
US CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY`S RUNS. 19/00Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW OUT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS IT RETROGRADING BACK TO
THE GULF.
WITH THE GFS`S MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...FLOW REMAINS MORE
SOUTHWEST THAN SOUTH AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED ACROSS S FL. NONETHELESS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO
A STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY 10-15KTS AS
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA/FL COAST DEEPENS AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
NE. WEST-NW WINDS 10KTS OVER THE GULF WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
COLLAPSES ON SUN RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST-NW WINDS 5-10KTS...VEERING
N-NE MON AND TUES THEN EAST ON WED. SEAS GENERALLY 2FT OR
LESS...WITH UP TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON AND 4FT TUES-
THURS WITH SOME INCOMING SWELL AND NORTH FETCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 75 91 77 88 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 78 88 / 20 40 30 30
MIAMI 77 91 78 90 / 20 40 30 40
NAPLES 76 90 75 92 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1123 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POPS ONCE AGAIN, LEAVING ONLY THE COASTAL AREAS UNDER A
CHANCE, WITH THE OTHER AREAS DROPPED TO A SLIGHT CHANCE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE LACK OF ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR, THE
FAIRLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE LATE MORNING, AND THE HRRR, WHICH ONLY
DEVELOPS A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
UPDATE...
MUCH DIFFERENT MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR. WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR KEEPS THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY REAL CHANGES ARE TO SKY COVER AND
TO ADJUST WIND TO INCLUDE MORE CURRENT MODEL RUNS, ALSO REDUCE
POPS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, GIVEN THE CURRENT RUN OF
THE HRRR. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING FAIRLY WELL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. GIVEN THIS, ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS TODAY.
EXPECT WIND TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OFF THE
FL/GA COAST THIS MORNING WHILE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THE WEAKER
GULF LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT`S BEEN OVER THE STATE WILL ALSO BEGIN
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE AXIS WILL GET SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO S FLORIDA AS A RESULTING BRINGING COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WAVER VAPOR SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED OUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT MODELS BRING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW HAS PICKED UP OUT OF THE SW WITH THE CURRENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING MOVING AT AROUND
20KTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SPEED THROUGH THE DAY SO WE WILL SEE
FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR EAST COAST...WITH MODELS FOCUSING
MORE TOWARDS BROWARD /MIAMI-DADE WHERE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
LIES. GIVEN STORM MOTION...DON`T EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT A CONCERN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME TRAINING IN
SPOTS GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. OVERALL COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY JUST OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...TAKING WITH IT THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH LINGERS
OVER S FLORIDA WITH CONTINUING DEEP AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK FURTHER DOWN THE PENINSULA IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTANT LOW...PUSHING THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY...STILL FAVORING THE EAST COAST AND
FAR SOUTH PENINSULA IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT FURTHER
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES BECOMING
THE MAIN DRIVER OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF
THE LOW INTO THE STATE MON-WED WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT 20-30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT
ON WED WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING COMPONENT REMAINS IN PLACE ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE BEST (THOUGH MUCH LOWER) RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO MID WEEK
WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR.
MID TO LATE WEEK MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
US CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY`S RUNS. 19/00Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW OUT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS IT RETROGRADING BACK TO
THE GULF.
WITH THE GFS`S MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...FLOW REMAINS MORE
SOUTHWEST THAN SOUTH AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED ACROSS S FL. NONETHELESS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO
A STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY 10-15KTS AS
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA/FL COAST DEEPENS AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
NE. WEST-NW WINDS 10KTS OVER THE GULF WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
COLLAPSES ON SUN RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST-NW WINDS 5-10KTS...VEERING
N-NE MON AND TUES THEN EAST ON WED. SEAS GENERALLY 2FT OR
LESS...WITH UP TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON AND 4FT TUES-
THURS WITH SOME INCOMING SWELL AND NORTH FETCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 91 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 77 90 78 / 30 20 40 30
MIAMI 91 77 91 78 / 30 20 40 30
NAPLES 89 76 90 75 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
1037 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
MUCH DIFFERENT MORNING THAN YESTERDAY MORNING. VERY LITTLE
ACTIVITY ON RADAR. WITH ALL THE ACTIVITY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AT THIS TIME. THE HRRR KEEPS THE WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY REAL CHANGES ARE TO SKY COVER AND
TO ADJUST WIND TO INCLUDE MORE CURRENT MODEL RUNS, ALSO REDUCE
POPS IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA, GIVEN THE HRRRS CURRENT
RUN. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST IS PROGRESSING FAIRLY WELL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. GIVEN THIS, ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS TODAY.
EXPECT WIND TO CONTINUE FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY, GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN OFF THE
FL/GA COAST THIS MORNING WHILE RADAR AND SATELLITE SHOW THE WEAKER
GULF LOW HAS BEEN ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION. THE MID-
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT`S BEEN OVER THE STATE WILL ALSO BEGIN
LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...THOUGH THE AXIS WILL GET SHIFTED
FURTHER SOUTH INTO S FLORIDA AS A RESULTING BRINGING COOLER MID
LEVEL TEMPS. WAVER VAPOR SATELLITE IS SHOWING THE DEEPER MOISTURE
BEING LIFTED OUT WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRYING ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA THAT MODELS BRING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
AFTERNOON.
STEERING FLOW HAS PICKED UP OUT OF THE SW WITH THE CURRENT SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING MOVING AT AROUND
20KTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN THIS SPEED THROUGH THE DAY SO WE WILL SEE
FAIRLY QUICK MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR EAST COAST...WITH MODELS FOCUSING
MORE TOWARDS BROWARD /MIAMI-DADE WHERE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH
LIES. GIVEN STORM MOTION...DON`T EXPECT HEAVY RAIN TO BE AS
SIGNIFICANT A CONCERN BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME TRAINING IN
SPOTS GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. OVERALL COVERAGE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK TO PUSH OFFSHORE THIS EVENING WITH
ACTIVITY JUST OVER THE WATERS OVERNIGHT.
SUNDAY...MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST INTO SUNDAY...TAKING WITH IT THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. TRAILING EDGE OF THE TROUGH LINGERS
OVER S FLORIDA WITH CONTINUING DEEP AND BRISK WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR BEGINS TO WORK FURTHER DOWN THE PENINSULA IN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE DISTANT LOW...PUSHING THE
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
REGION DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY...STILL FAVORING THE EAST COAST AND
FAR SOUTH PENINSULA IN FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.
LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT FURTHER
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES BECOMING
THE MAIN DRIVER OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING FAIRLY DECENT MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE BACK OF
THE LOW INTO THE STATE MON-WED WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP RAIN CHANCES A
LITTLE BELOW NORMAL AT 20-30 PERCENT...INCREASING TO 30-40 PERCENT
ON WED WITH SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING COMPONENT REMAINS IN PLACE ON
MONDAY...KEEPING THE BEST (THOUGH MUCH LOWER) RAIN CHANCES TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO MID WEEK
WITH MORE ACTIVITY OVER THE INTERIOR.
MID TO LATE WEEK MODELS SHOW THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN
US CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
YESTERDAY`S RUNS. 19/00Z GFS LIFTS THE LOW OUT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
FAIRLY QUICKLY WHILE THE ECMWF STILL HAS IT RETROGRADING BACK TO
THE GULF.
WITH THE GFS`S MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION...FLOW REMAINS MORE
SOUTHWEST THAN SOUTH AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS
PRONOUNCED ACROSS S FL. NONETHELESS...WE ARE LOOKING AT A RETURN TO
A STORMY PATTERN TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MARINE...MODERATE SW WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC TODAY 10-15KTS AS
SURFACE LOW OFF THE GA/FL COAST DEEPENS AND SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
NE. WEST-NW WINDS 10KTS OVER THE GULF WATERS. PRESSURE GRADIENT
COLLAPSES ON SUN RESULTING IN LIGHT WEST-NW WINDS 5-10KTS...VEERING
N-NE MON AND TUES THEN EAST ON WED. SEAS GENERALLY 2FT OR
LESS...WITH UP TO 3FT IN THE GULF STREAM THIS AFTERNOON AND 4FT TUES-
THURS WITH SOME INCOMING SWELL AND NORTH FETCH.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 75 91 77 / 30 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 77 90 78 / 40 20 40 30
MIAMI 91 77 91 78 / 30 20 40 30
NAPLES 89 76 90 75 / 20 10 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1019 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...LOW CLOUDS WHICH IMPACTED NORTHERN COUNTIES NOW
BEGINNING TO LIFT...TRANSITIONING TO PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY LATE
MRONING. UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER REGION TODAY...WITH SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE JACKSONVILLE TO
THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA. CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN
WILL AFFECT CWA TODAY TO THE SW OF SURFACE LOW. HRRR AND LOCAL WRF
BOTH SUGGEST ONSHORE FLOW WILL INITIATE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER/NEAR VOLUSIA COUNTY...WITH ACTIVITY EXPANDING INTO PRIMARILY
SEMINOLE/ORANGE AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVERGENCE/LIFT
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ALSO PROMPT SOME
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION AGREES WELL WITH
SCENARIO OF HIGHEST POPS (40) NE AND A LITTLE LOWER SOUTH AND
INLAND. EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS TO LINGER INTO EARLY
EVENING. MAX TEMPS UPPER 80S COAST AND AROUND 90 INLAND.
&&
.AVIATION...LIFR CIGS AT NORTH/INTERIOR TAF SITES WILL
LIFT/DIMINISH BY 15Z. SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE LOW ENOUGH TO OMIT
FROM TAFS...BUT BASED ON TRENDS...MAY NEED TO ADD SMALL WINDOW OF
SHRA AND MVFR CIGS TO SOME TAF SITES...MAINLY KDAB/KTIX/KSFB.
&&
.MARINE...N WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OFFSHORE/NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 5-10 KT NEARSHORE/SOUTH.
SEAS 3-5 FT...EXCEPT BUILDING TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE/NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. NO CHANGES TO EARLY MORNING CWF.
&&
.HYDROLOGY... AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE ST.
JOHNS RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY /GENF1/ HAS REACHED 6.1FT...WHICH
IS 0.4 FEET BELOW ACTION STAGE (6.5FT). THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF ACTION STAGE EARLY SUNDAY...AND
REMAIN NEARLY STEADY STATE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR /ASTF1/ HAS REACHED 2.25FT...WHICH
IS 0.25 FEET BELOW ACTIONS STAGE (2.5FT). THE RIVER WILL REMAIN
NEAR ACTION STAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO SLIGHT RISES
DOWNSTREAM AND NORTHERLY WINDS SLOWING DRAINAGE UPSTREAM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 73 89 71 / 40 20 10 10
MCO 89 73 91 72 / 40 20 20 10
MLB 89 73 90 74 / 30 20 20 10
VRB 89 72 88 70 / 30 20 20 10
LEE 88 73 92 73 / 30 20 10 10
SFB 88 73 91 72 / 40 20 10 10
ORL 89 74 92 74 / 40 20 20 10
FPR 90 73 89 70 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SPRATT
IMPACT WEATHER/DSS...GLITTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
1039 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER MS
VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT NEAR THE NC/SC
BORDER STRETCHING INTO NORTHERN GA.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR N AND NW
MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING SOME
WEAK CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND
EASTERN MIDLANDS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
IN THOSE LOCATIONS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND NAM DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH INDICATES POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD
BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS IN A WEDGE-LIKE
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
GFS GENERALLY DISPLAYED A FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS DIFFERED WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO
SHOW MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS POPS. THE MOS WAS CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THREAT OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT...LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FOG CONCERNS AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HOWEVER...PREMISE FOR SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST REDUCES
CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
856 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Another quiet but cool night across central and southeast Illinois
as high pressure remains in control of the local weather. Light
winds, mostly clear skies, and a dry airmass should allow
overnight temperatures to fall into the 40s again in many areas.
Only plan minor tweaks to the hourly nighttime grids for the
latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the
ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into
Missouri. A small shortwave on sat imagery to the northwest
forecast in the HRRR to pass to the north this evening. Dominant
high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night.
Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not much to discuss in
terms of weather, but will mention the potential for very patchy
light fog/vis drops. However, leaving it out of the grids as the
afternoon dewpoints are dropping several degrees as the llvls mix
out in the day time heating.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Seeing a consistent signal in the 12z models for a dry week in the
extended forecast across central and southeast IL.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest
across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half
of this week. The southwest end of the surface ridge looks to remain
across central and southern Illinois during that time, keeping
seasonable and dry conditions across our forecast area.
A cold front will approach NW Illinois on Tuesday, reaching eastern
Iowa by 00z Wed/7pm Tues. The front is projected to stall out in
that general area for the rest of the week, as a ridge remains
entrenched across the eastern states due to the blocking effects
of a low pressure system off the central East Coast.
The end result will be some increase in cloud cover for our areas
west of I-55 for the last half of the week, but plenty of dry air
above and below the cloud layer will keep precip at bay.
Low pressure progressing from the SW states will move northeast
along the front later this week, reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into Friday. That will bring another period
of increased cloud cover for our western counties, but no rain.
That low is expected to dissipate on Friday as it passes by to the
north of IL, with expanding high pressure across Illinois in it`s
wake. That will keep dry conditions in the forecast through next
weekend.
As for temperatures this week, the chilly air will remain across our
area into Tuesday. However, southerly flow will develop ahead of the
approaching cold front, bring warmer air to our area the rest of the
week. Highs will reach back into the lower 80s from Wednesday to
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. VFR
conditions will prevail, with generally light winds and minimal
cloud cover.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
629 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the
ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into
Missouri. A small shortwave on sat imagery to the northwest
forecast in the HRRR to pass to the north this evening. Dominant
high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night.
Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not much to discuss in
terms of weather, but will mention the potential for very patchy
light fog/vis drops. However, leaving it out of the grids as the
afternoon dewpoints are dropping several degrees as the llvls mix
out in the day time heating.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Seeing a consistent signal in the 12z models for a dry week in the
extended forecast across central and southeast IL.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest
across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half
of this week. The southwest end of the surface ridge looks to remain
across central and southern Illinois during that time, keeping
seasonable and dry conditions across our forecast area.
A cold front will approach NW Illinois on Tuesday, reaching eastern
Iowa by 00z Wed/7pm Tues. The front is projected to stall out in
that general area for the rest of the week, as a ridge remains
entrenched across the eastern states due to the blocking effects
of a low pressure system off the central East Coast.
The end result will be some increase in cloud cover for our areas
west of I-55 for the last half of the week, but plenty of dry air
above and below the cloud layer will keep precip at bay.
Low pressure progressing from the SW states will move northeast
along the front later this week, reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into Friday. That will bring another period
of increased cloud cover for our western counties, but no rain.
That low is expected to dissipate on Friday as it passes by to the
north of IL, with expanding high pressure across Illinois in it`s
wake. That will keep dry conditions in the forecast through next
weekend.
As for temperatures this week, the chilly air will remain across our
area into Tuesday. However, southerly flow will develop ahead of the
approaching cold front, bring warmer air to our area the rest of the
week. Highs will reach back into the lower 80s from Wednesday to
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
central Illinois terminals through the 00Z TAF valid time. VFR
conditions will prevail, with generally light winds and minimal
cloud cover.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1253 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...
211 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
IN ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FARTHER NORTH...WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BEGINS TO FEEL MORE OF THE
LIFT FROM A PAIR OF LEADING SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A VERY WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED. THESE ARE IN AREAS WHERE EARLIER BREAKS IN LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS HAVE ENABLED GREATER DESTABILIZATION. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTENDING TO NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THESE
ADDITIONAL LEADING SHORTWAVES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER NORTH...FEEL THE MORE
ACTIVE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND STORM MOTION IS NOT
SUPER FAST. A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS AS WELL DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NEAR 7 DEG/KM ON THE KDVN MORNING SOUNDING)...THOUGH
SHEAR HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED EARLIER
TODAY ON THE RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS. IT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...KEEPING SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL BE ELEVATED.
IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A
SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
BREAK...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD LAST THE LONGEST FOR POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST ABD THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
THE TIMING ON THIS ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
AFTER 7-8 PM IN THE WEST...AND AFTER 9 PM CLOSER TO CHICAGO. CURRENT
SHORT TERM RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER
THAN THAT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-57. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
UPPER Q-G FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80 FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY WITH
THIS WAVE...BUT HAVE HELD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CURRENT
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINS LAST NIGHT. LEAST FAVORED
AREAS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND HAVE PLACED HIGHEST
QPF IN THE MOST FAVORED FORCING LOCATIONS IN NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40+ KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AGAIN WITH THE LATER EVENING STORMS...WITH THE WIND
THREAT CONTINGENT ON STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH
SHOULD EASE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVERNIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
236 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT TERM RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA PAST
SUNRISE...THOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS QUICKLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALLOWING A QUICK END TO ANY
PRECIP AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS...COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING WILL MAKE FOR AN AUTUMN FEEL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME CHILLY LOW-
MID 40S IN COOLER SPOTS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE/BLENDED TOWARD
COOLER MAV MINS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY QUIET...WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR A FEW
DAYS. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY PLEASANT PERIOD OF MILD DAYS WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE LOW 70S (UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE) TO
75-80/LOW 80S RANGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60.
NO REAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED RAIN APPEARS AT THIS TIME BEYOND
SATURDAY MORNING...UNTIL PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...OR DONT DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ALONG IT...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE RE-BUILDING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS HAVE HELD FORECAST
DRY THROUGH FRI AND GIVEN JUST A NOD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY PER
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 06Z...
* WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.
* STRONG/GUSTY NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS THRU MID AFTERNOON.
* POSSIBLE NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT/LAKE BREEZE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MVFR CIGS THRU MID MORNING...POSSIBLE IFR CIGS EARLY THIS
MORNING. CMS
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 06Z...
LAST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING EAST OF ORD/MDW AND WILL
AFFECT GYY THRU 07Z. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT ALREADY AT RFD. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WITH WIND DIRECTIONS INTO THE 340-360
RANGE. STILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THRU THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MVFR CIGS APPEAR LIKELY
ACROSS THE REGION THRU MID MORNING...BUT A PERIOD OF IFR CIGS IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO WEAKEN. ITS POSSIBLE A LAKE BREEZE MAY DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...WINDS MAY
TURN NORTHEASTERLY AT ORD/MDW. SPEEDS WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE
COULD APPROACH 10KTS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CMS
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 06Z...
* HIGH FOR WINDS THRU THIS AFTERNOON...LOW FOR LAKE BREEZE AND
TIMING LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
* MEDIUM FOR IFR CIGS EARLY THIS MORNING. CMS
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.
IZZI
&&
.MARINE...
257 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS ARE IN THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES LIKELY ON CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA...SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY AND PULLING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE LAKE. GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO
BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET WITH THE TRAILING WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
LAKES THROUGH MID- WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING A BIT ON THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE AND
PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20 KTS AT TIMES...WHILE REMAINING LIGHTER
FARTHER SOUTH.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022
UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY.
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...ILZ006-ILZ014...4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM
SATURDAY.
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT...INZ001-INZ002...4 AM SATURDAY TO 10 PM
SATURDAY.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1202 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a general
westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave trough is moving east-
southeast across eastern Montana and northern Wyoming. Near the
surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting eastward
across Nebraska and Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
The main challenge in the short term will be low stratus potential
up in the northeast zones (particularly around Hays) and if it will
impact temperatures at all. A secondary push of cooler air was
making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in
winds from the north. On the 11-3.9u imagery during the overnight
hours, we were watching an area of stratus advance south-
southwestward toward north central KS. The HRRR suggests that this
will reach as far southwest as a Dighton to Dodge City line by 14z.
This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to
this prog as there is some better low level moisture across
central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low...which
will likely continue to advect southwestward through the early
morning hours. We will bump up the clouds in the Sky grids to
reflect this latest thinking, especially northeast of the Dighton to
Dodge City line. Any low stratus should erode by late morning given
how shallow it will be. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian
airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go
with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds
will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
Advancing to tonight, we will see low level winds turn back around
to the south in response to another loosely organized Pacific system
moving into the Northern Rockies. Some marginal moisture will return
via the "scenic route" (Eastern New Mexico/western TX-OK
Panhandles), and increased deformation/convergence in the 700-800mb
layer will promote some elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms
after 06z Sunday. We will maintain the 20-30 POPs across mainly the
western third of the forecast area late tonight, with low Chance
POPs between the Arkansas River and the OK border in the 12-18z
Sunday time frame.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Our region of the world will once again see a warming trend going
into next week as the primary polar jet shifts back to the north and
mid level heights rise across the Southern and Central
Rockies/adjacent High Plains. During the slow transition back into
above-average temperatures, we will see low chances for
precipitation, particularly early Sunday as one last shortwave
trough ripples through the longwave trough. Highs Sunday will be
tricky, and we feel that portions of south central Kansas,
especially, will stay stuck in the 60s to lower 70s with elevated
convection and stratus clouds lingering through at least the middle
part of the day.
The lee trough comes back strong by Monday and will be a quasi-
steady feature through at least Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures
will gradually increase each day with highs in the lower 90s in some
locations. The global spectral models suggest a subtropical
shortwave trough ejecting from the Baja California region into
Rockies which will bring some mid level moisture across into the
High Plains. We will have some Slight Chance to Chance POPs in the
grids Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, but at this point, it
does not look like a real good opportunity for widespread beneficial
rainfall across our region given the degree of downslope momentum in
the middle troposphere and the general weak nature of the
subtropical system to begin with. Beyond mid-week, it certainly
looks like we will continue the theme of above average temperatures
across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains in the final days of
September with both the GFS and the ECMWF showing some semblance of
a longwave trough across western North America leading to fairly
strong (warm and dry) southwest momentum across the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Sunday
morning. Light northeasterly winds will prevail across western
Kansas this afternoon as a surface high moves eastward across
Nebraska and northern Kansas. Winds will then become more easterly 5
to 15kt this evening as the surface high pushes east into Iowa and
northern Missouri, and more southeasterly early Sunday as it lifts
northeastward into the Great Lakes Region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 55 76 58 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 74 53 81 57 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 75 50 85 56 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 75 54 85 58 / 0 20 10 0
HYS 71 52 79 59 / 0 10 10 0
P28 75 58 76 60 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
945 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 938 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE. MODELS NOT DOING WELL WITH THE STRENGTH
POSITION OF THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND ALSO THE STRATUS
DECK OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. SURFACE IS STRONGER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN WHAT OUTPUT IS INDICATING. SO A SHIFTING TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE SLOWER...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN HALF.
THICK STRATUS STILL OVER THE EAST AND IS SLOWING DOWN TEMPERATURE
RISE. NEWER DATA IS HOLDING ONTO THIS A LITTLE LONGER THAN
INDICATED. ALSO MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE COLD DOME
AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH ARE CREATING A DECENT AREA OF MID
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE EAST
...OVER THE STRATUS FIELD. MORNING SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING A STRONG
INVERSION THIS MORNING.
SO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS MY NEBRASKA AND KANSAS
COUNTIES BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND A LESS FAVORABLE WIND
FIELD. INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER TO MATCH UP WITH REALITY AND KEPT
IT AROUND LONGER AS WELL. UPDATED THE WINDS PER THE NAM WHO IS
THE CLOSEST TO REALITY AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION...SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT. UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 90 ON
MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
PRIMARILY IN EASTERN COLORADO BOTH DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER
AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY TROPICAL MOISTURE ONTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ONTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DEVELOP WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE DISTURBANCES...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO REBUILD ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST.
A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY DECREASING THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK TO THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. A SIMILAR TREND WILL BE SEEN
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT KMCK WITH IFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING. UNCERTAIN IF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR
AS KGLD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SATELLITE SHOWS THEM
SPREADING QUICKLY WEST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THEM REACHING
TO ABOUT COLBY BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 15Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
902 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a general
westerly flow aloft prevailing across the Western High Plains.
Meanwhile, a weak upper level shortwave trough is moving east-
southeast across eastern Montana and northern Wyoming. Near the
surface, a broad area of high pressure is shifting eastward
across Nebraska and Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
The main challenge in the short term will be low stratus potential
up in the northeast zones (particularly around Hays) and if it will
impact temperatures at all. A secondary push of cooler air was
making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in
winds from the north. On the 11-3.9u imagery during the overnight
hours, we were watching an area of stratus advance south-
southwestward toward north central KS. The HRRR suggests that this
will reach as far southwest as a Dighton to Dodge City line by 14z.
This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to
this prog as there is some better low level moisture across
central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low...which
will likely continue to advect southwestward through the early
morning hours. We will bump up the clouds in the Sky grids to
reflect this latest thinking, especially northeast of the Dighton to
Dodge City line. Any low stratus should erode by late morning given
how shallow it will be. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian
airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go
with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds
will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
Advancing to tonight, we will see low level winds turn back around
to the south in response to another loosely organized Pacific system
moving into the Northern Rockies. Some marginal moisture will return
via the "scenic route" (Eastern New Mexico/western TX-OK
Panhandles), and increased deformation/convergence in the 700-800mb
layer will promote some elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms
after 06z Sunday. We will maintain the 20-30 POPs across mainly the
western third of the forecast area late tonight, with low Chance
POPs between the Arkansas River and the OK border in the 12-18z
Sunday time frame.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Our region of the world will once again see a warming trend going
into next week as the primary polar jet shifts back to the north and
mid level heights rise across the Southern and Central
Rockies/adjacent High Plains. During the slow transition back into
above-average temperatures, we will see low chances for
precipitation, particularly early Sunday as one last shortwave
trough ripples through the longwave trough. Highs Sunday will be
tricky, and we feel that portions of south central Kansas,
especially, will stay stuck in the 60s to lower 70s with elevated
convection and stratus clouds lingering through at least the middle
part of the day.
The lee trough comes back strong by Monday and will be a quasi-
steady feature through at least Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures
will gradually increase each day with highs in the lower 90s in some
locations. The global spectral models suggest a subtropical
shortwave trough ejecting from the Baja California region into
Rockies which will bring some mid level moisture across into the
High Plains. We will have some Slight Chance to Chance POPs in the
grids Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, but at this point, it
does not look like a real good opportunity for widespread beneficial
rainfall across our region given the degree of downslope momentum in
the middle troposphere and the general weak nature of the
subtropical system to begin with. Beyond mid-week, it certainly
looks like we will continue the theme of above average temperatures
across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains in the final days of
September with both the GFS and the ECMWF showing some semblance of
a longwave trough across western North America leading to fairly
strong (warm and dry) southwest momentum across the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Surface high pressure centered in Nebraska will move into Iowa by
00Z. Pressures will begin to fall in the lee of the Rockies this
afternoon as an upper level trough moves from Idaho into eastern
Wyoming. An area of stratus with ceilings near 015 extending from
southeast South Dakota into northern Kansas will propagate south
and gradually erode during the morning hours. Ceilings from 010 to
015 will persist in HYS through the morning and scatter out around
17Z. The stratus will approach DDC by 14Z but should remain mostly
east of the TAF location. Other than the area of stratus, VFR
conditions will prevail through 12Z Sunday. A few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm with bases near 070 can be expected after
06Z in GCK and around 09Z in DDC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 55 76 58 / 0 10 10 0
GCK 74 53 81 57 / 0 10 10 0
EHA 74 50 85 56 / 0 10 10 0
LBL 75 54 85 58 / 0 20 10 0
HYS 71 52 79 59 / 0 10 10 0
P28 74 58 76 60 / 0 20 20 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
522 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
AFTER A CHILLY MORNING...PATCHY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WILL RESULT IN WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE
LIFT. HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND NONE OF THE MESOSCALE
MODELS GENERATE PRECIPITATION...SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT. UPPER RIDGE WILL
REBUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND NEAR 90 ON
MONDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP TO NEAR 15 PERCENT
PRIMARILY IN EASTERN COLORADO BOTH DAYS...BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT SO DO NOT EXPECT TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE AREA AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPED NEAR THE COLORADO/KANSAS BORDER
AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS BRING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY TROPICAL MOISTURE ONTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS COINCIDES WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING ONTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST BEFORE WEAKENING TO AN OPEN WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION.
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES DEVELOP WITHIN THIS SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THESE DISTURBANCES...SO THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. KEPT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING APPEARS TO REBUILD ON
FRIDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS BACK TO THE FORECAST.
A VERY GRADUAL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON TUESDAY DECREASING THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK TO THE LOW 80S ON FRIDAY. A SIMILAR TREND WILL BE SEEN
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
LOW CLOUDS WILL IMPACT KMCK WITH IFR CEILINGS THROUGH LATE MORNING
BEFORE CLEARING. UNCERTAIN IF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR
AS KGLD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS SATELLITE SHOWS THEM
SPREADING QUICKLY WEST. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS THEM REACHING
TO ABOUT COLBY BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER 15Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
557 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...Updated Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
The main challenge in the short term will be low stratus potential
up in the northeast zones (particularly around Hays) and if it will
impact temperatures at all. A secondary push of cooler air was
making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in
winds from the north. On the 11-3.9u imagery during the overnight
hours, we were watching an area of stratus advance south-
southwestward toward north central KS. The HRRR suggests that this
will reach as far southwest as a Dighton to Dodge City line by 14z.
This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to
this prog as there is some better low level moisture across
central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low...which
will likely continue to advect southwestward through the early
morning hours. We will bump up the clouds in the Sky grids to
reflect this latest thinking, especially northeast of the Dighton to
Dodge City line. Any low stratus should erode by late morning given
how shallow it will be. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian
airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go
with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds
will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
Advancing to tonight, we will see low level winds turn back around
to the south in response to another loosely organized Pacific system
moving into the Northern Rockies. Some marginal moisture will return
via the "scenic route" (Eastern New Mexico/western TX-OK
Panhandles), and increased deformation/convergence in the 700-800mb
layer will promote some elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms
after 06z Sunday. We will maintain the 20-30 POPs across mainly the
western third of the forecast area late tonight, with low Chance
POPs between the Arkansas River and the OK border in the 12-18z
Sunday time frame.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Our region of the world will once again see a warming trend going
into next week as the primary polar jet shifts back to the north and
mid level heights rise across the Southern and Central
Rockies/adjacent High Plains. During the slow transition back into
above-average temperatures, we will see low chances for
precipitation, particularly early Sunday as one last shortwave
trough ripples through the longwave trough. Highs Sunday will be
tricky, and we feel that portions of south central Kansas,
especially, will stay stuck in the 60s to lower 70s with elevated
convection and stratus clouds lingering through at least the middle
part of the day.
The lee trough comes back strong by Monday and will be a quasi-
steady feature through at least Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures
will gradually increase each day with highs in the lower 90s in some
locations. The global spectral models suggest a subtropical
shortwave trough ejecting from the Baja California region into
Rockies which will bring some mid level moisture across into the
High Plains. We will have some Slight Chance to Chance POPs in the
grids Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, but at this point, it
does not look like a real good opportunity for widespread beneficial
rainfall across our region given the degree of downslope momentum in
the middle troposphere and the general weak nature of the
subtropical system to begin with. Beyond mid-week, it certainly
looks like we will continue the theme of above average temperatures
across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains in the final days of
September with both the GFS and the ECMWF showing some semblance of
a longwave trough across western North America leading to fairly
strong (warm and dry) southwest momentum across the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Surface high pressure centered in Nebraska will move into Iowa by
00Z. Pressures will begin to fall in the lee of the Rockies this
afternoon as an upper level trough moves from Idaho into eastern
Wyoming. An area of stratus with ceilings near 015 extending from
southeast South Dakota into northern Kansas will propagate south
and gradually erode during the morning hours. Ceilings from 010 to
015 will persist in HYS through the morning and scatter out around
17Z. The stratus will approach DDC by 14Z but should remain mostly
east of the TAF location. Other than the area of stratus, VFR
conditions will prevail through 12Z Sunday. A few showers and
possibly a thunderstorm with bases near 070 can be expected after
06Z in GCK and around 09Z in DDC.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 55 75 59 / 0 20 30 10
GCK 74 53 80 58 / 10 30 30 10
EHA 74 50 84 57 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 75 54 84 59 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 70 52 78 60 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 58 75 61 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Ruthi
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
353 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...UPDATED LONG TERM SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
The main challenge in the short term will be low stratus potential
up in the northeast zones (particularly around Hays) and if it will
impact temperatures at all. A secondary push of cooler air was
making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in
winds from the north. On the 11-3.9u imagery during the overnight
hours, we were watching an area of stratus advance south-
southwestward toward north central KS. The HRRR suggests that this
will reach as far southwest as a Dighton to Dodge City line by 14z.
This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to
this prog as there is some better low level moisture across
central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low...which
will likely continue to advect southwestward through the early
morning hours. We will bump up the clouds in the Sky grids to
reflect this latest thinking, especially northeast of the Dighton to
Dodge City line. Any low stratus should erode by late morning given
how shallow it will be. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian
airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go
with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds
will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
Advancing to tonight, we will see low level winds turn back around
to the south in response to another loosely organized Pacific system
moving into the Northern Rockies. Some marginal moisture will return
via the "scenic route" (Eastern New Mexico/western TX-OK
Panhandles), and increased deformation/convergence in the 700-800mb
layer will promote some elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms
after 06z Sunday. We will maintain the 20-30 POPs across mainly the
western third of the forecast area late tonight, with low Chance
POPs between the Arkansas River and the OK border in the 12-18z
Sunday time frame.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Our region of the world will once again see a warming trend going
into next week as the primary polar jet shifts back to the north and
mid level heights rise across the Southern and Central
Rockies/adjacent High Plains. During the slow transition back into
above-average temperatures, we will see low chances for
precipitation, particularly early Sunday as one last shortwave
trough ripples through the longwave trough. Highs Sunday will be
tricky, and we feel that portions of south central Kansas,
especially, will stay stuck in the 60s to lower 70s with elevated
convection and stratus clouds lingering through at least the middle
part of the day.
The lee trough comes back strong by Monday and will be a quasi-
steady feature through at least Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures
will gradually increase each day with highs in the lower 90s in some
locations. The global spectral models suggest a subtropical
shortwave trough ejecting from the Baja California region into
Rockies which will bring some mid level moisture across into the
High Plains. We will have some Slight Chance to Chance POPs in the
grids Wednesday Night through Thursday Night, but at this point, it
does not look like a real good opportunity for widespread beneficial
rainfall across our region given the degree of downslope momentum in
the middle troposphere and the general weak nature of the
subtropical system to begin with. Beyond mid-week, it certainly
looks like we will continue the theme of above average temperatures
across the Rockies and adjacent High Plains in the final days of
September with both the GFS and the ECMWF showing some semblance of
a longwave trough across western North America leading to fairly
strong (warm and dry) southwest momentum across the Rockies.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Aviation weather will be fairly tranquil as high pressure
continues to settle in across western Kansas. There is a secondary
surge of stronger north wind moving in, so expect wind speeds to
pick back up at GCK and DDC to the 12 to 16 knot range for a few
hours in the 06 to 10z time frame, but they will drop back to
below 10 knots by daybreak. Winds will remain light through the
day Saturday, but winds will gradually pick back up (from the
southeast) late in the day in response to a redeveloping leeside
trough. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with the dry
airmass in place now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 55 75 59 / 0 20 30 10
GCK 74 53 80 58 / 10 30 30 10
EHA 74 50 84 57 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 75 54 84 59 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 70 52 78 60 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 58 75 61 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
112 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...Updated Short Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
The main challenge in the short term will be low stratus potential
up in the northeast zones (particularly around Hays) and if it will
impact temperatures at all. A secondary push of cooler air was
making its way south into southwest Kansas with a slight bump in
winds from the north. On the 11-3.9u imagery during the overnight
hours, we were watching an area of stratus advance south-
southwestward toward north central KS. The HRRR suggests that this
will reach as far southwest as a Dighton to Dodge City line by 14z.
This may be a bit ambitious, but there is certainly some merit to
this prog as there is some better low level moisture across
central/south central Nebraska that wrapped around the low...which
will likely continue to advect southwestward through the early
morning hours. We will bump up the clouds in the Sky grids to
reflect this latest thinking, especially northeast of the Dighton to
Dodge City line. Any low stratus should erode by late morning given
how shallow it will be. Temperatures today, with the fresh Canadian
airmass in place, will only top out in the lower to mid 70s. Will go
with slightly cooler temps in the north where low morning clouds
will likely delay the diurnal warmup.
Advancing to tonight, we will see low level winds turn back around
to the south in response to another loosely organized Pacific system
moving into the Northern Rockies. Some marginal moisture will return
via the "scenic route" (Eastern New Mexico/western TX-OK
Panhandles), and increased deformation/convergence in the 700-800mb
layer will promote some elevated showers and isolated thunderstorms
after 06z Sunday. We will maintain the 20-30 POPs across mainly the
western third of the forecast area late tonight, with low Chance
POPs between the Arkansas River and the OK border in the 12-18z
Sunday time frame.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
High temperatures have most recently been best handled by the bias
corrected ECMWF MOS. Further past the weekend temperatures will
rapidly bounce back toward around 90 degrees on Monday and Tuesday
as the southerly flow becomes reestablished. Recent forecasts have
included chances for thunderstorms centered around the late Sunday
timeframe. This potential still looks favorable with rapid return
flow along a redeveloped surface trough over the central High
Plains and differential vorticity advection across the area. The
next appreciable chance returns on Wednesday or Thursday as the
upper flow turn more southwesterly with stronger embedded
shortwaves helping to create lee cyclones over the northern plains
region. Breezy and warm should also be the character of the period
with strong southwest downslope flow for several days.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Saturday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Aviation weather will be fairly tranquil as high pressure
continues to settle in across western Kansas. There is a secondary
surge of stronger north wind moving in, so expect wind speeds to
pick back up at GCK and DDC to the 12 to 16 knot range for a few
hours in the 06 to 10z time frame, but they will drop back to
below 10 knots by daybreak. Winds will remain light through the
day Saturday, but winds will gradually pick back up (from the
southeast) late in the day in response to a redeveloping leeside
trough. VFR conditions are expected to prevail with the dry
airmass in place now.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 73 55 80 59 / 0 20 30 10
GCK 74 53 81 58 / 10 30 30 10
EHA 74 50 83 57 / 10 20 20 10
LBL 75 54 81 59 / 10 30 20 10
HYS 70 52 84 60 / 0 10 20 10
P28 74 58 79 61 / 0 20 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST HI
RES MODELS. HRRR IS BACKING OFF ON SHOWERS MAKING INTO OUR FAR
EAST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL OPTING TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR PIKE/HARLAN/LETCHER COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION LAST
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY
BEGAN TO CARRY IN DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WINDS EVENTUALLY VEERING TOWARD THE NE...THE DRIER
AIR HAS HAD TROUBLE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO OUR AREA. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ALL DAY NEAR THE BORDER WITH TN AND VA. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEARBY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A RESURGENCE OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE TO THE
EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD CLIP THE EASTERN TIP OF
KY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF INHIBITION FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AND TO RISE ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...IN THE WEST SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY AND MORNING LOWS A BIT COOLER AND HIGHS ON MONDAY A BIT
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE EAST. THE EFFECTS OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA WIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE
CONUS. THE JET REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME...A CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MEANDERS JUST
OFF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH AGAIN AND
POTENTIALLY BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH QUITE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SURFACE FORCING FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WITH
THE ASSIST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST. IN FACT...WILL TREND
BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES SEEM TO TREND DRIER AND AS IS THE
TIME OF THE YEAR AS WELL. SO WENT BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES AND THIS
WAS AGREED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
SOME LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FAR SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...NOT CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE ROBUST
ENOUGH TO IMPACT THE TAF SITES. THUS...LEFT TAF SITES MAINLY VFR
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSME...WHICH COULD SEE A
LITTLE FOG IF SKIES CAN CLEAR OUT AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. ANY
FOG AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER SHOULD SLOWLY EXIT ON MONDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...KAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
915 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
JUST A FEW TWEAKS FOR THE MORNING UPDATE. RAP SOUNDINGS SHOWED
GOOD MIXING POTENTIAL TODAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE BREEZY/WINDY
CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND W. NOTED KLVM AND KBIL WERE ALREADY GUSTING
THIS MORNING...AND EXPECT SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE TO AID IN GUSTY WINDS. THUS HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND W ZONES. NOT MUCH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TODAY
WITH THE WAVE MOVING OUT AND CLOUDS CONFINED TO N OF CANADIAN
BORDER WITH THE ZONAL JET. GIVEN THE LIMITED CLOUD COVER AND GOOD
MIXING HAVE RAISED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SEVERAL AREAS TOWARD THE
RUC GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT HIGHER TEMPERATURES.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER IN THE GRIDS FOR TODAY. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SUN...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME
ONLY ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUD COVER DUE TO DRY LOWER LEVELS.
WE WILL SLOWLY TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE BY
SUNDAY. LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD
TO WARMING WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S TODAY...FOLLOWED BY
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY. LOOK FOR STIFF W/SW WINDS LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY FROM BILLINGS WEST
TO LIVINGSTON. PROGGS INDICATE WIND DIRECTION WILL HAVE TOO MUCH
OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT GAP EFFECTS AT
LIVINGSTON/NYE...BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE WINDY AT TIMES. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR MON...TUE...WED...THU...FRI...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE EXTENDED OUTSIDE OF BORDER
COLLABORATION AND NEW PERIODS. MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...WITH GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK...UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT
SAID...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH JUST ENOUGH ENERGY
THAT IT COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE EASTERN
ZONES. SOUTHWEST FLOW BEGINS TO RETURN TO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS THE REMNANTS OF THE SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM LIFTING OUT OF
THE PACIFIC SOUTHWEST APPEAR TO REACH THE AREA. AT THIS TIME THIS
SYSTEM ONLY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MOUNTAIN PRECIP...AND AN ISOLATED CHANCE TO EASTERNMOST ZONES.
SOUTHWEST FLOW DEEPENS INTO THE WEEKEND IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING STRONG PACIFIC TROF...SO HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT
MOUNTAIN POPS IN PLACE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. TIMING IS A
INCONSISTENT AMONGST MODELS WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE
TROF...BUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON IMPACTING THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF DOES INDICATE A SLOWER
PROGRESSION WITH GREATER PRECIP POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME...BUT MUCH
CAN CHANGE IN A WEEK. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON ACROSS ALL ROUTES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN AND AROUND
KLVM AND K6SO...WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS. GUSTS APPROACHING
20 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...INCLUDING KBIL...KMLS...AND
KBHK. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AGAIN THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FEW DAYS...UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. AAG/REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SUN MON TUE WED THU FRI
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 076 050/080 053/077 048/078 054/080 053/080 053/082
0/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 11/B 12/T 22/T
LVM 071 043/078 046/075 043/078 047/079 047/079 048/080
0/N 00/N 02/W 11/U 11/B 22/T 23/T
HDN 077 045/082 048/080 046/081 051/082 050/083 050/085
0/B 00/B 01/B 11/B 12/W 11/B 11/B
MLS 076 049/081 052/078 048/080 052/081 053/080 053/085
0/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 11/B 12/W 12/T
4BQ 076 047/081 049/080 048/081 052/082 052/081 051/085
0/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/W 11/B 11/B
BHK 074 046/078 050/077 046/074 050/078 051/076 051/080
0/B 00/U 01/U 22/W 12/W 12/T 22/T
SHR 074 042/080 046/080 045/083 049/082 048/082 048/085
0/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/W 12/T 21/B
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT
AND THIS MORNING WILL STALL ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND
WEAKEN THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. DRY AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH REBUILDS OVER ARIZONA. THE DRY
AIR WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK STORM
SYSTEM OFF OF THE FAR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST AND THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH WILL BRING IN DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE- DAY MONDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS FAR WEST AS THE DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON. ENOUGH WARMING HERE AT THE ABQ SUNPORT...HOWEVER...TO
GET SOUTHWEST WINDS TO SURFACE...INDICATING THE AIRMASS IS QUITE
SHALLOW AND WILL LIKELY GET MIXED OUT WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A BAND OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED IN NW CATRON COUNTY AND THIS IS THE AREA OF SFC
CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY THAT THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING NEWD
DURING THE EVENING. 18Z NAM12 NOT AT ALL EXCITED ABOUT IT AND
WITH NO STRONG UPPER LEVEL LARGE SCALE FORCING TO SPEAK
OF...SUSPECT IT`S ON THE RIGHT TRACK. GFS IS ONCE AGAIN OUT TO
LUNCH WITH THIS SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SCENARIO.
MAIN FORECAST CHANGE FOR SUNDAY WAS TO LOWER PRECIP CHANCES OVER
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. BOTH GFS AND NAM BRING
IN SINGLE DIGIT RH AT/NEAR 500MB MAKING IT ALL BUT IMPOSSIBLE FOR
CUMULUS UPDRAFTS TO SURVIVE OUTSIDE OF SW CATRON...SW SOCORRO AND
SRN LINCOLN COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FAVORED AREA FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE OVER SRN LINCOLN COUNTY WHERE THE
SELY SFC RETURN FLOW PRODUCES SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION.
GFS AND NAM TRENDING TOWARD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NEXT
WEEK. STARTED PROCESS OF LOWERING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY AS NEARLY
ALL MODELS ARE SLOWER WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIP SHIELD
IN THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER LOW SW OF SAN
DIEGO AND THE UPPER HIGH OVER FAR W TX/NRN MEXICO. TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT NOW LOOKING LIKE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD AS ALL
GLOBAL MODELS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT.
12Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOW COME IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. BOTH MODELS BRING IN DRIER AIR ON WLY FLOW ALOFT
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY ACTIVE ALONG AND EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT DRY AIR
WINDS OUT OVER THE NW THIRD. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK LIKE DOWN
DAYS AHEAD OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH BEGINS TO
SPREAD SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD INTO WRN NM SATURDAY...AT LEAST
ACCORDING TO THE GFS. ECMWF IS ABOUT 24 HRS SLOWER BUT VERY
SIMILAR WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. LET THE EL NINO
GAMES OF 2015 BEGIN.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURGED NORTHWARD
FROM THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY CENTRAL AND
EAST...WITH WESTERLIES WEST OF THE CONTDVD. SOUTH WINDS WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS SUNSET THEN TAPERING OFF
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR...WITH CHANCES ALONG
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES WERE BELOW NORMAL IN THE EAST...NEAR
NORMAL WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. SHOWERS AND THICK CLOUD
COVER SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
RECOVERIES IMPROVE GREATLY AREAWIDE THAN PREVIOUS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY
FOLLOWING A DOWN TREND IN MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE STATE AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHILE RH VALUES REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. ANY CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL DOWNTREND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS...WHILE REMAINING GOOD TO EXCELLENT ELSEWHERE.
DOWN TREND IN RH VALUES WILL CONTINUE MONDAY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS
...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS DRIER AIR REMAINS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST. ANY SHOWER CHANCES WILL BE LIMITED TO THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS BECAUSE OF AN UPTREND IN MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOOKS TO CROSS OVER
THE CALIFORNIA...NEVADA VALLEY USHERING THE MOISTURE BULLS EYE OVER
ARIZONA...WITH SCATTERED CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS...BECOMING WIDESPREAD LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. RH VALUES
AND RECOVERIES WILL GREATLY IMPROVE WEST TO EAST. BY
THURSDAY...MODELS BEGAN TO DIFFER ON TIMING OF SHOWERS MOVING OUT OF
THE STATE AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TAKES OVER TOWARD THE WEEKEND
VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY...POOR ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THEN BECOMING GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE
EAST...FAIR IN THE SOUTH...TO POOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS MONDAY...THEN
IMPROVING AREA WIDE TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
MTNS FOLLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...THICK CLOUD COVER/MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTH EASTERLY CENTRAL AND EAST AS POST BACK DOOR FRONTAL WINDS
WASH OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER 20Z. HRRR MODELS
ARE INDICATING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BUT ONLY ADDED VCSH FOR KROW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 45 86 42 86 / 5 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 33 79 28 81 / 10 0 0 0
CUBA............................ 46 77 44 78 / 10 0 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 41 85 37 85 / 5 0 0 5
EL MORRO........................ 39 78 36 78 / 10 0 0 10
GRANTS.......................... 41 82 37 82 / 10 5 0 5
QUEMADO......................... 52 79 49 77 / 20 10 0 20
GLENWOOD........................ 52 78 53 77 / 20 30 10 20
CHAMA........................... 42 73 32 74 / 10 0 0 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 55 78 56 79 / 20 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 51 76 52 77 / 10 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 45 76 40 77 / 5 0 0 5
RED RIVER....................... 43 67 36 69 / 10 0 0 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 68 44 69 / 10 0 0 5
TAOS............................ 42 80 40 82 / 5 0 0 5
MORA............................ 48 74 48 76 / 10 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 49 85 47 85 / 10 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 79 54 79 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 51 83 51 83 / 10 0 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 84 60 84 / 10 5 0 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 60 86 61 86 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 88 55 88 / 10 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 58 87 59 87 / 10 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 89 52 89 / 10 0 0 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 57 87 58 87 / 10 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 59 88 60 90 / 10 5 5 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 54 80 52 81 / 20 5 0 5
TIJERAS......................... 56 82 46 83 / 20 5 0 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 45 83 40 84 / 10 5 0 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 79 52 81 / 10 5 0 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 79 55 81 / 10 5 5 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 80 58 84 / 20 20 5 10
RUIDOSO......................... 53 72 54 76 / 20 30 10 20
CAPULIN......................... 50 77 51 81 / 10 0 0 5
RATON........................... 48 84 49 88 / 5 0 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 49 84 49 87 / 5 0 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 82 48 84 / 10 5 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 56 85 58 90 / 10 0 0 0
ROY............................. 53 83 53 85 / 10 5 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 60 89 60 91 / 10 5 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 88 60 89 / 10 5 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 60 90 61 93 / 10 5 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 60 85 60 90 / 10 10 0 0
PORTALES........................ 62 84 62 89 / 10 10 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 86 62 89 / 5 5 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 63 88 61 93 / 10 10 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 84 58 86 / 20 20 5 10
ELK............................. 56 73 56 78 / 20 30 10 10
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST
MTNS FOLLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FILTERING NORTHWARD FROM THE
SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...THICK CLOUD COVER/MVFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WITH PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING
SOUTH EASTERLY CENTRAL AND EAST AS POST BACK DOOR FRONTAL WINDS
WASH OUT...WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
WINDS ACROSS WESTERN NM WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AFTER 20Z. HRRR MODELS
ARE INDICATING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FAVORING AREAS SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR BUT ONLY ADDED VCSH FOR KROW.
32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT SURGED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO AS
OF EARLY SATURDAY. GUSTY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. HIGHS IN THE EAST WILL
FINALLY FALL TO BELOW AVERAGE TODAY...BUT WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE CENTRAL AND WEST. BEST
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE
IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BOOST CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER WEATHER
DOMINATES LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
FRONT MADE IT/S WAY THROUGH THE RGV AND APPEARS TO BE INVOF THE
CONTDVD EARLY THIS MORNING. CONSIDERED DROPPING THE WIND ADVY FOR
THE MIDDLE RGV...AS WINDS AT THE SUNPORT HAD DECREASED...WHILE
ALLOWING THE REMAINDER OF THE ADVY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 7
AM...HOWEVER KABQ GUSTS HAVE INCREASED AGAIN...SO DECIDED TO LET
THE ADVY CONTINUE IN IT/S ENTIRETY. OTHERWISE...THE FRONT LOOKED
TO INITIATE AN ISOLD STORM IN THE LOWER RGV AROUND
MIDNIGHT...WHICH DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY. ATTM ECHOES OBSERVED
TO OUR SOUTH ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING COMPLEX AS WELL AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FORECAST BEST MOISTURE AND INSTAB FOR TODAY LIKELY TO
REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40 BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTAB
FOR AN ISOLD CELL OVER THE NRN MTS...SO LITTLE CHANGE FROM
INHERITED GRIDS. HIGHS IN THE EAST FALL BELOW AVERAGE TODAY WHILE
COOLER CENTRAL BUT STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.
HIGHS REBOUND SUNDAY WITH BEST MOISTURE AND INSTAB FORECAST SOUTH OF
I-40 AGAIN. GFS REMAINS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF OPENING UP
THE UPPER LOW OFF BAJA AND BRINGING IT AS WELL AS A SLUG OF MOISTURE
INTO NEW MEXICO...BUT THE IDEA IS THE SAME...MAINLY THE TIMING IS
OFF. TUESDAY MAY SEE THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH
WETTING RAIN...WITH A DRY OUT FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THERE MAY BE A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE EAST
THURSDAY...BUT DOESN/T LOOK TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. UPPER HIGH
DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT POTENTIAL LATE NEXT
WEEKEND FOR INCREASING WIND AND SHOWERS/STORMS WEST AND NORTH AS A
STRONG TROUGH TRACKS THROUGH THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT HAS POWERED ITS WAY THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE BELOW CANYONS THROUGH SUNRISE OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT IS ALSO
MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE CONTDVD. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING NORTHWARD SHOULD ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
HIGHLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
AND THEREFORE...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE TOO STABLE FOR MUCH...IF
ANY...SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH WILL REMAIN BELOW
15 PERCENT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU. GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY...DRY MID LEVEL AIR WILL NOSE BACK INTO THE NORTHERN HALF
OR SO OF THE STATE...CONFINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WETTING RAINS WILL BE
SPOTTY AT BEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAYTIME HUMIDITIES TRENDING SHARPLY DOWNWARD.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE AT ODDS REGARDING THE TIMING
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH...OR TWO...AND THE ACCOMPANYING MOISTURE AND
PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL...MODELS AGREE THAN A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL
EJECT FROM THE MAIN LOW OVER THE PACIFIC AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER
AZ AND NM SOMETIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THEN...THE MAIN
LOW WILL OPEN INTO A WAVE AND ALSO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE GFS TENDS TO BRING THE
MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE WITH THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF
TENDS TO KEEP THAT MOISTURE LARGELY OVER AZ. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF
DOES SHOW WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS WITH THE MAIN TROUGH AS IT
CROSSES NM. SINCE THESE DIFFERENCES HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT FOR MANY
DAYS...BEST WE CAN SAY FOR NOW IS THAT MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SHOULD BE TRENDING UPWARD FOR AT LEAST CENTRAL AND WESTERN
NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE WETTING RAINS...JUST A
QUESTION OF TIMING.
LOOKS LIKE BOTH MODELS REBUILD THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY
REDUCED.
POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND AREAS EASTWARD...WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VENT RATES
WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WEST TODAY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POOR VENT
RATES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...VENT RATES ON SUNDAY
SHOULD BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD AREAWIDE. THOUGH THE DETAILS ARE STILL
BEING IRONED OUT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE POOR
TO FAIR VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH GOOD OR BETTER VENT RATES PREVAILING
ELSEWHERE.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1007 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
DESPITE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING /AND THEN DISSIPATING/
EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST NORTHWEST OF OKC... THE SHORT-TERM AND
00Z SYNOPTIC MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS... BUT LOWER THE
POPS A BIT. ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR STRATUS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA ALREADY MAKE IT LOOK LIKE IT MAY BE MORE OF A STRATUS
NIGHT AS OPPOSED TO FOG. HRRR HAS ALSO BACKED OFF ON COVERAGE OF
FOG. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT... BUT WILL
REMOVE THE FOG FROM THE GRIDS FOR NOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS EARLY THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS
IN PRECIP AND SHORT-TERM MODELS. THE PERSISTENT PRECIP SHIELD NOW
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WENT
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE SOUTHEAST
BEFORE DECREASING TO SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE CATEGORY. THE
CONVECTION OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE IS DROPPING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
AND FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE 100TH MERIDIAN...
BUT SOME DEVELOPMENT COULD BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE
AREA. SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA LATER TONIGHT...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS TONIGHT. ALSO
ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY MORNING FOG.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
21/00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS FIRST HALF OF FORECAST PRIMARILY WITH
CIGS BUT AREAS OF SHALLOW FOG ALSO POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT SAW
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY. IF WE HAVE AREAS OF DENSE FOG
IT IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NORTH OF WARM
FRONT. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH KS S/WV TONIGHT MAY YIELD SCATTERED
RA/TSRA MAINLY OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. CLEARING WITH RETURN TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS REGIONWIDE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 155 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT AND BE
MOSTLY EAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW AREAS COULD
RECEIVE MINOR FLOODING FROM THE SLOW MOVEMENT. CLOUDS WILL HOLD
OVER THIS AREA INTO THE EVENING. IN SUNNIER AREAS OF WESTERN
OKLAHOMA LATE THIS AFTERNOON, STABILITY MAY LOWER SUFFICIENTLY TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WHICH MAY MOVE EAST
FROM TEXAS. THESE WOULD BE SHORT- LIVED AND LARGELY DRIVEN BY
DAYTIME INSTABILITY. APART FROM THAT, EARLY MONDAY A WEAK WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY PASS TO THE NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA BUT BRING A
SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING. AFTER THAT, A QUICK
WARM UP TO RETURN TO HOT WEATHER WILL START. MOST OF THE WEEK WILL
SEE TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE LATE SEPTEMBER NORMALS WHEN
THE LONG-PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA
THURSDAY WHEN WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A WESTERLY WAVE PASSES QUICKLY;
OTHERWISE, THE HOT AIRMASS WILL DOMINATE IN THE PRESENCES OF THE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 87 67 90 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 65 91 68 93 / 20 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 67 93 69 94 / 30 0 0 0
GAGE OK 64 92 67 92 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 86 67 89 / 20 20 0 0
DURANT OK 66 90 68 92 / 70 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT WHEN LIFT OVER THE COLD FRONT WILL
HELP GENERATE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN OR
CENTRAL THIRD OF OKLAHOMA. MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNRISE
SUNDAY IN MUCH OF THIS AREA. THUNDER IS LESS LIKELY THROUGH THE
MORNING, BUT RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
DISCUSSION...
BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX THIS MORNING.
REMOVED CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN OK AND WRN N TX GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BROUGHT BACK A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH THE AFTN... AS THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TX COMES INTO PLAY... WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE CAPROCK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL. IN RESPONSE... THERE IS
A SLIGHT SIGNAL OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z (0700 PM
CDT). HOWEVER... GIVEN 4000 TO 5000 FT CLOUD BASES AND 20 TO 25
DEGREES SFC TEMP/DPT SPREADS... SHOWERS WILL BE FAR AND FEW
BETWEEN IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. THE VAST MAJORITY WILL
STAY DRY.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14-16Z. ALL
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SE OK THIS MORNING SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP OVER THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE ENE THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH WITH THE 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT
NOW SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THIS NARROW ZONE THROUGH
SUNRISE. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BEFORE
LUNCHTIME AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NE TO SW. EXPECT
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER...THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS
AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND THEN SHIFT NE/E DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FOR THIS REASON
SIMILAR TO THE NAM12. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH EARLY MON AM AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NE/E OK. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO/OR JUST ABOVE AVG MONDAY...AND
THEN WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE NEAR KS THROUGH THURS
SO WILL GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHCS ACROSS NORTHERN OK DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 61 81 64 87 / 60 60 30 10
HOBART OK 62 85 65 91 / 60 50 20 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 66 88 67 92 / 60 50 20 0
GAGE OK 58 84 62 90 / 30 40 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 57 76 62 84 / 20 30 30 10
DURANT OK 67 86 66 89 / 40 50 30 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1140 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX... TEMPS...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BROKEN AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND MOVE
SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX THIS MORNING.
REMOVED CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL AND SWRN OK AND WRN N TX GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE SFC FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BROUGHT BACK A 15 TO 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH THE AFTN... AS THE RIDGE
CENTERED OVER WEST TX COMES INTO PLAY... WITH MODEST MOISTURE
CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE CAPROCK INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND WRN OK.
WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURE QUITE WELL. IN RESPONSE... THERE IS
A SLIGHT SIGNAL OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF SWRN OK/WRN N TX THROUGH 00Z (0700 PM
CDT). HOWEVER... GIVEN 4000 TO 5000 FT CLOUD BASES AND 20 TO 25
DEGREES SFC TEMP/DPT SPREADS... SHOWERS WILL BE FAR AND FEW
BETWEEN IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS THIS AFTN. THE VAST MAJORITY WILL
STAY DRY.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14-16Z. ALL
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SE OK THIS MORNING SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP OVER THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE ENE THIS
EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH WITH THE 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT
NOW SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THIS NARROW ZONE THROUGH
SUNRISE. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BEFORE
LUNCHTIME AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NE TO SW. EXPECT
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER...THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS
AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND THEN SHIFT NE/E DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FOR THIS REASON
SIMILAR TO THE NAM12. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH EARLY MON AM AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NE/E OK. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO/OR JUST ABOVE AVG MONDAY...AND
THEN WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE NEAR KS THROUGH THURS
SO WILL GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHCS ACROSS NORTHERN OK DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 61 81 64 / 20 40 50 30
HOBART OK 77 62 85 65 / 20 50 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 79 66 88 67 / 40 40 40 20
GAGE OK 76 58 84 62 / 10 30 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 77 57 76 62 / 10 20 30 30
DURANT OK 83 67 86 66 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
657 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AT A FEW OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 14-16Z. ALL
OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SE OK THIS MORNING SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY PRECIP OVER THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. EXPECT
NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SHIFTING TO THE ENE THIS
EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH WITH THE 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT
NOW SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THIS NARROW ZONE THROUGH
SUNRISE. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BEFORE
LUNCHTIME AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NE TO SW. EXPECT
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER...THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS
AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND THEN SHIFT NE/E DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FOR THIS REASON
SIMILAR TO THE NAM12. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH EARLY MON AM AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NE/E OK. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO/OR JUST ABOVE AVG MONDAY...AND
THEN WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE NEAR KS THROUGH THURS
SO WILL GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHCS ACROSS NORTHERN OK DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 61 81 64 / 20 40 50 30
HOBART OK 77 62 85 65 / 20 50 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 66 88 67 / 40 40 40 20
GAGE OK 76 58 84 62 / 10 30 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 77 57 76 62 / 10 20 30 30
DURANT OK 84 67 86 66 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
313 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTH WITH THE 850 MB FRONTOGENETIC ZONE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON WHAT IS OCCURRING RIGHT
NOW SO POPS WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD ALONG THIS NARROW ZONE THROUGH
SUNRISE. MOST OF THE RAIN WILL MOVE TOWARD THE RED RIVER BEFORE
LUNCHTIME AND SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM NE TO SW. EXPECT
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE SW...HOWEVER...THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWARD TO THE LOW 80S SOUTHWARD.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN RETURNS SUN AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS
AND A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES.
THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OK...AND THEN SHIFT NE/E DURING THE DAY.
DECIDED TO LOWER TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST FOR THIS REASON
SIMILAR TO THE NAM12. RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EAST
THROUGH EARLY MON AM AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO NE/E OK. MONDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY
CLEAR AS THE WAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE MISS RIVER VALLEY.
TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND BACK TO/OR JUST ABOVE AVG MONDAY...AND
THEN WARM UP THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THE NWP MODELS INDICATE A MID TO
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOMEWHERE NEAR KS THROUGH THURS
SO WILL GO WITH SOME SLIGHT CHCS ACROSS NORTHERN OK DURING THIS
TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ABOVE AVG TEMPS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 76 61 81 64 / 20 40 40 30
HOBART OK 77 62 85 65 / 20 50 50 20
WICHITA FALLS TX 82 66 88 67 / 40 40 40 20
GAGE OK 76 58 84 62 / 10 30 40 10
PONCA CITY OK 77 57 76 62 / 10 20 30 30
DURANT OK 84 67 86 66 / 30 40 50 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
555 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY /AT
17Z MOVING INTO CENTRAL OH/. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...ENTERING WESTERN PA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND
MOVING INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY AROUND 03Z SUN.
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST AND
ENTER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO FIND
MUCH CAPE FURTHER EAST...SO SHOULD SEE A DEF WEAKENING TREND TO
PRECIP AS FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL
MTNS. INTERESTING FEATURE FIRST HINTED AT BY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR /AND LIKELY WELL OVERDONE BY HRRR/ AND ON DISPLAY IN
THE WV IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS AT 10Z TO SE OHIO AT 17Z BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE NE IN QUICK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK START SOME TSTMS OVER W PA WHERE CAPES
ARE ONLY AROUND 500J/KG. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR EAST
OF A LINE FROM ABOUT BEDFORD TO STATE COLLEGE TO WILLIAMSPORT THE
RAIN WILL MANAGE TO GET BEFORE PETERING OUT THOUGH...SO HELD ONTO
SCT POPS THERE...RAMPING POPS HIGHER HEADING INTO NW MTNS. DID
HOLD TSTM PROBS IN THE SCT CATEGORY...WITH FAST FLOW NOT TOTALLY
RULING OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST THERE /AS NOTED IN THE
SPC DAY1 DISCUSSION CONCERNING A MARGINAL RISK/.
WE`LL EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S MOST LOCALES...WITH A SSW BREEZE OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS.
A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND SHOVES THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S OVER THE NORTH TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT...FOG SEEMS LIKELY LATE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY. IT WILL BE A MARKEDLY
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AFTER THAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...ULTIMATELY CLOSING OFF NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES IN THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING AN EASTERLY WIND
AND LOW CLOUD/SHOWER CHANCES. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME THOUGH
BUT WILL HAVE TO ADJUST AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
COMES INTO FOCUS THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
REGIONAL RADAR AT 21Z SHOWS A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO WESTERN PA. FROPA IS LIKELY TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A
A BRIEF TSRA AND A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AT KBFD ARND 23Z.
UPSTREAM REPORTS AT KERI AND KWBC SHOWING A SCT LYR AT 700FT
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT. FEEL A BRIEF DIP TO IFR CIGS AT KBFD
IS QUITE POSSIBLE BTWN 23Z-01Z AS POST-FRONTAL MOISTURE IS FORCED
OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN SURROUNDING KBFD. DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN ON
NW FLOW LATER TONIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN A MORE FAVORABLE
/MVFR/ STRATOCU DECK OVERNIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DWINDLE AS WEAKENING FRONT MOVES SE
INTO THE REST OF THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. LATEST NEAR TERM MDLS
SUGGEST THE DWINDLING LINE OF SHOWERS WILL MAKE IT TO
KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KJST AS FRONT MOVES THRU ARND 03Z. FURTHER SE...THE
FRONT SHOULD COME THRU DRY ARND 07Z AT KMDT/KLNS. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS IS LIKELY AT KUNV/KAOO BTWN 03Z-06Z BEFORE DRIER NW FLOW
BRINGS IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT. AT KJST...UPSLOPE FLOW COULD
MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS THRU DAWN. FURTHER SE...MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
VFR CONDS ARE LIKELY TO LAST THRU THE ENTIRE NIGHT AT
KIPT/KMDT/KLNS.
HIGH PRES AND DRY AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GRT LKS ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING A NEAR CERTAINTY OF WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS. PRES
GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES TO THE WEST AND LOW PRES OFF THE E
COAST...WILL CREATE SOME FAIRLY GUSTY NORTH WINDS SUNDAY...ESP
ACROSS EASTERN PA...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS NR
20KTS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
339 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY /AT
17Z MOVING INTO CENTRAL OH/. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...ENTERING WESTERN PA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND
MOVING INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY AROUND 03Z SUN.
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST AND
ENTER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO FIND
MUCH CAPE FURTHER EAST...SO SHOULD SEE A DEF WEAKENING TREND TO
PRECIP AS FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL
MTNS. INTERESTING FEATURE FIRST HINTED AT BY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR /AND LIKELY WELL OVERDONE BY HRRR/ AND ON DISPLAY IN
THE WV IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS AT 10Z TO SE OHIO AT 17Z BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE NE IN QUICK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK START SOME TSTMS OVER W PA WHERE CAPES
ARE ONLY AROUND 500J/KG. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR EAST
OF A LINE FROM ABOUT BEDFORD TO STATE COLLEGE TO WILLIAMSPORT THE
RAIN WILL MANAGE TO GET BEFORE PETERING OUT THOUGH...SO HELD ONTO
SCT POPS THERE...RAMPING POPS HIGHER HEADING INTO NW MTNS. DID
HOLD TSTM PROBS IN THE SCT CATEGORY...WITH FAST FLOW NOT TOTALLY
RULING OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST THERE /AS NOTED IN THE
SPC DAY1 DISCUSSION CONCERNING A MARGINAL RISK/.
WE`LL EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S MOST LOCALES...WITH A SSW BREEZE OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS.
A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND SHOVES THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S OVER THE NORTH TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT...FOG SEEMS LIKELY LATE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY. IT WILL BE A MARKEDLY
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST VALLEYS AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE MID 30S BY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODERATE AFTER THAT AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD
PENNSYLVANIA FROM THE MIDWEST. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL THEN LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY.
THE SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...ULTIMATELY CLOSING OFF NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST INCREASES IN THIS PERIOD AS THE SYSTEM
MAY STILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE AREA TO BRING AN EASTERLY WIND
AND LOW CLOUD/SHOWER CHANCES. KEPT THINGS DRY FOR THIS TIME THOUGH
BUT WILL HAVE TO ADJUST AS THE TRACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW
COMES INTO FOCUS THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR AREAWIDE THIS MIDDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS THIS MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT
KBFD...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FROM KAOO-KUNV-KIPT WITH ONLY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS. THE
SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVE...WITH NW/N FLOW ARRIVING BEHIND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE CIG
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA...WITH IFR DEVELOPING AT
KBFD-KJST AND MVFR FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
133 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE LOW LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS OHIO VALLEY /AT
17Z MOVING INTO CENTRAL OH/. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...ENTERING WESTERN PA SHORTLY AFTER 18Z...AND
MOVING INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY AROUND 03Z SUN.
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TO OUR WEST AND
ENTER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON. TOUGH TO FIND
MUCH CAPE FURTHER EAST...SO SHOULD SEE A DEF WEAKENING TREND TO
PRECIP AS FRONT SLIDES INTO THE ALLEGHENY FRONT AND CENTRAL
MTNS. INTERESTING FEATURE FIRST HINTED AT BY THE LAST COUPLE RUNS
OF THE HRRR /AND LIKELY WELL OVERDONE BY HRRR/ AND ON DISPLAY IN
THE WV IS A VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVE SLIDING FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
ILLINOIS AT 10Z TO SE OHIO AT 17Z BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME ENHANCED
CLOUD HEIGHTS IN A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS FEATURE WILL
SLIDE NE IN QUICK MID-LEVEL FLOW OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KICK START SOME TSTMS OVER W PA WHERE CAPES
ARE ONLY AROUND 500J/KG. IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR JUST HOW FAR EAST
OF A LINE FROM ABOUT BEDFORD TO STATE COLLEGE TO WILLIAMSPORT THE
RAIN WILL MANAGE TO GET BEFORE PETERING OUT THOUGH...SO HELD ONTO
SCT POPS THERE...RAMPING POPS HIGHER HEADING INTO NW MTNS. DID
HOLD TSTM PROBS IN THE SCT CATEGORY...WITH FAST FLOW NOT TOTALLY
RULING OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST THERE /AS NOTED IN THE
SPC DAY1 DISCUSSION CONCERNING A MARGINAL RISK/.
WE`LL EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S MOST LOCALES...WITH A SSW BREEZE OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS.
A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND SHOVES THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S OVER THE NORTH TO
AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT...FOG SEEMS LIKELY LATE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY. IT WILL BE A MARKEDLY
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO DWINDLE WITH EACH
PASSING MODE RUN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINS FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT I HAVE
FAIRLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS...LOWS OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON IN A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
FROM THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER. THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS
ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF. WHAT HAPPENS THEN MEANS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD AND DRY REST OF THE WEEK...OR A COLD
RAINY ONE. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...KEEPING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF CHILLY WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SETTLES
THE LOW DOWN OVER THE SERN STATES AND EVEN TRACKS IT WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP US UNDER FAVORABLE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. I USED
OUR SUPERBLENDED MODEL MOS WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE GFS/GEFS
PESSIMISM...RESULTING IN A MUCH BRIGHTER FORECAST FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
PRESUMING THE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL WILL TREND BACK TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AREAWIDE THIS MIDDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND SCT TSTMS ACROSS THE NW
MTNS THIS MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS AT
KBFD...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING FROM KAOO-KUNV-KIPT WITH ONLY LOCAL RESTRICTIONS POSS. THE
SE WILL REMAIN VFR.
FRONT CLEARS THE AREA THIS EVE...WITH NW/N FLOW ARRIVING BEHIND AS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. THIS WILL PRODUCE CIG
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS MAINLY NW HALF OF CWA...WITH IFR DEVELOPING AT
KBFD-KJST AND MVFR FOR CENTRAL SECTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/RXR
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
731 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR CHICAGO WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH ILLINOIS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...ENTERING WESTERN PA BY ABOUT 18Z...AND
MOVING INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 00Z. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT THROUGH THE EASTERN
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE DOWN INTO FAR NORTHERN OHIO.
EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR TIMING SUGGEST THESE BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
MY FAR NWRN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 7 AND 9 AM...11-13Z.
THESE LEADING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MADE TO WEAKEN BY THE NEAR
TERM MESO MODELS AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST AND
ENTER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE MODELS IS CONSISTENT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT WILLIAMSPORT TO STATE COLLEGE TO ABOUT BEDFORD THE RAIN WILL
MANAGE TO GET BEFORE PETERING OUT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE I HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. THE NUMBERS TAPER DOWN QUICKLY INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER STILL OVER MY SERN ZONES.
QPF WILL RANGE FROM MEAGER AMOUNTS FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY WEST TO THE LAURELS...TO PERHAPS .50" TO .75" OVER THE FAR
NW.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY...BUT SPC HAS PAINTED NWRN PA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IF A STRONG
LINE CAN FORM IN OHIO/LOWER LAKES AND TRACK INTO THE REGION
BEFORE IT DECAYS THIS EVENING.
WE`LL EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND SHOVES THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S OVER THE NORTH
TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT...FOG SEEMS LIKELY LATE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY. IT WILL BE A MARKEDLY
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO DWINDLE WITH EACH
PASSING MODE RUN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINS FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT I HAVE
FAIRLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS...LOWS OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON IN A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
FROM THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER. THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS
ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF. WHAT HAPPENS THEN MEANS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD AND DRY REST OF THE WEEK...OR A COLD
RAINY ONE. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...KEEPING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF CHILLY WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SETTLES
THE LOW DOWN OVER THE SERN STATES AND EVEN TRACKS IT WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP US UNDER FAVORABLE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. I USED
OUR SUPERBLENDED MODEL MOS WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE GFS/GEFS
PESSIMISM...RESULTING IN A MUCH BRIGHTER FORECAST FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
PRESUMING THE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL WILL TREND BACK TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NW...GIVEN DYNAMICS.
SOME FOG FOR A FEW MORE HOURS...BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE
AS THE LAST 2 MORNINGS. MAIN AREA FOR DENSE FOG AT TIMES
HAS BEEN LNS.
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SE MAY BRING SOME MORE SHOWERS
LATE.
LOW CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
WEATHER NOT LOOKING BAD SUN INTO WED.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
523 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR CHICAGO WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH ILLINOIS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...ENTERING WESTERN PA BY ABOUT 18Z...AND
MOVING INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 00Z. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT THROUGH THE EASTERN
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE DOWN INTO FAR NORTHERN OHIO.
EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR TIMING SUGGEST THESE BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
MY FAR NWRN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 7 AND 9 AM...11-13Z.
THESE LEADING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MADE TO WEAKEN BY THE NEAR
TERM MESO MODELS AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST AND
ENTER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE MODELS IS CONSISTENT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT WILLIAMSPORT TO STATE COLLEGE TO ABOUT BEDFORD THE RAIN WILL
MANAGE TO GET BEFORE PETERING OUT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE I HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. THE NUMBERS TAPER DOWN QUICKLY INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER STILL OVER MY SERN ZONES.
QPF WILL RANGE FROM MEAGER AMOUNTS FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY WEST TO THE LAURELS...TO PERHAPS .50" TO .75" OVER THE FAR
NW.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY...BUT SPC HAS PAINTED NWRN PA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IF A STRONG
LINE CAN FORM IN OHIO/LOWER LAKES AND TRACK INTO THE REGION
BEFORE IT DECAYS THIS EVENING.
WE`LL EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND SHOVES THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S OVER THE NORTH
TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT...FOG SEEMS LIKELY LATE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY. IT WILL BE A MARKEDLY
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO DWINDLE WITH EACH
PASSING MODE RUN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINS FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT I HAVE
FAIRLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS...LOWS OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON IN A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
FROM THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER. THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS
ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF. WHAT HAPPENS THEN MEANS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD AND DRY REST OF THE WEEK...OR A COLD
RAINY ONE. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...KEEPING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF CHILLY WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SETTLES
THE LOW DOWN OVER THE SERN STATES AND EVEN TRACKS IT WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP US UNDER FAVORABLE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. I USED
OUR SUPERBLENDED MODEL MOS WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE GFS/GEFS
PESSIMISM...RESULTING IN A MUCH BRIGHTER FORECAST FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
PRESUMING THE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL WILL TREND BACK TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
SOME SHOWERS MOVING TOWARD BFD. ADJUSTED THIS TAF.
THE ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN...AS THE SHOWERS MOVE AWAY
FROM THE BETTER DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE EARLY AM FOG...FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA...DIRECTLY BENEATH RETREATING SFC RIDGE. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PATCHY MID LVL CLOUDS WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL FROM
THE CENTRAL MTNS WESTWARD. LATEST HRRR/NAM/LAMP...AS WELL AS
LATEST SREF...ALL SUPPORT A LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AT
KLNS BTWN 09Z-14Z. CAN/T RULE OUT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT
KIPT/KMDT ARND DAWN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH.
ANY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA SHOULD LIFT BY LATE AM. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST PA LATE IN
THE DAY. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION AT KBFD LATE IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY AT
KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KJST ARND 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
428 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRING A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY LEAD
TO A FEW SHOWERS MONDAY OR TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3AM...THE SURFACE LOW WAS NEAR CHICAGO WITH THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING SOUTH THROUGH ILLINOIS. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...ENTERING WESTERN PA BY ABOUT 18Z...AND
MOVING INTO THE SUSQ VALLEY BY 00Z. THERE IS ALSO GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE PARENT UPPER SHORTWAVE SHEARING OUT THROUGH THE EASTERN
LAKES AND SOUTHERN CANADA...LEADING TO A WEAKENING OF THE LARGE
SCALE FORCING FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING
EAST OVER CENTRAL LAKE ERIE DOWN INTO FAR NORTHERN OHIO.
EXTRAPOLATION AND HRRR TIMING SUGGEST THESE BEGIN TO ENCROACH ON
MY FAR NWRN ZONES BETWEEN ABOUT 7 AND 9 AM...11-13Z.
THESE LEADING SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MADE TO WEAKEN BY THE NEAR
TERM MESO MODELS AS THEY MOVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL ORGANIZE TO THE WEST AND
ENTER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF SURVIVING INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BY LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
THE WEAKENING TREND IN THE MODELS IS CONSISTENT AS THE FRONT
PUSHES EAST...AND IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW MUCH EAST OF A LINE FROM
ABOUT WILLIAMSPORT TO STATE COLLEGE TO ABOUT BEDFORD THE RAIN WILL
MANAGE TO GET BEFORE PETERING OUT. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE OVER NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE I HAVE
CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TODAY. THE NUMBERS TAPER DOWN QUICKLY INTO
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER STILL OVER MY SERN ZONES.
QPF WILL RANGE FROM MEAGER AMOUNTS FROM THE MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY WEST TO THE LAURELS...TO PERHAPS .50" TO .75" OVER THE FAR
NW.
MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL TODAY...BUT SPC HAS PAINTED NWRN PA WITH A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE SEEMS TO BE IF A STRONG
LINE CAN FORM IN OHIO/LOWER LAKES AND TRACK INTO THE REGION
BEFORE IT DECAYS THIS EVENING.
WE`LL EEK OUT ONE MORE WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
A COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES QUICKLY
INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND SHOVES THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE
SOUTH. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE CHILLY MID 40S OVER THE NORTH
TO AROUND 60 IN THE SOUTHEAST. OVER AREAS WHERE SKIES CLEAR
TONIGHT...FOG SEEMS LIKELY LATE. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD SEEM TO BE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL SETTLE OFF TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES INTO NORTHERN PA/SOUTHERN NY. IT WILL BE A MARKEDLY
COOLER DAY WITH HIGHS AVERAGING AROUND 10 DEG COOLER THAN TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO DWINDLE WITH EACH
PASSING MODE RUN.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING FAIRLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME
LIGHT RAINS FOR MONDAY AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY. AT THIS POINT I HAVE
FAIRLY LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AND
MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO TUESDAY.
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS HOWEVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY AIR AND
LIGHT WINDS...LOWS OVER THE NWRN MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING WILL
DROP DOWN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S. MAY SEE THE FIRST FROST OF THE
SEASON IN A FEW OF THE NORMAL COLD SHELTERED LOCATIONS.
FROM THERE MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE FURTHER. THE ECMWF AND GFS/GEFS
ALL SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH CLOSING OFF. WHAT HAPPENS THEN MEANS THE
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN A MILD AND DRY REST OF THE WEEK...OR A COLD
RAINY ONE. THE GFS/GEFS HAVE TRENDED MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE
UPPER LOW...KEEPING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOIST EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF CHILLY WET WEATHER. THE ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND SETTLES
THE LOW DOWN OVER THE SERN STATES AND EVEN TRACKS IT WEST ALONG
THE GULF COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD KEEP US UNDER FAVORABLE
RIDGING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...WITH DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS. I USED
OUR SUPERBLENDED MODEL MOS WHICH DOWNPLAYS THE GFS/GEFS
PESSIMISM...RESULTING IN A MUCH BRIGHTER FORECAST FROM MID WEEK
ONWARD.
PRESUMING THE OPTIMISTIC FORECAST VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL START THE WEEK BELOW NORMAL WILL TREND BACK TO A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL ENSURE ANOTHER
NIGHT OF FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WIND ACROSS CENTRAL PA. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE EARLY AM FOG...FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST PA...DIRECTLY BENEATH RETREATING SFC RIDGE. A
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY BREEZE AND PATCHY MID LVL CLOUDS WORKING INTO
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL FROM
THE CENTRAL MTNS WESTWARD. LATEST HRRR/NAM/LAMP...AS WELL AS
LATEST SREF...ALL SUPPORT A LIKELY PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR CONDS AT
KLNS BTWN 09Z-14Z. CAN/T RULE OUT OF BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CONDS AT
KIPT/KMDT ARND DAWN. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH.
ANY FOG ACROSS SOUTHEAST PA SHOULD LIFT BY LATE AM. FOCUS WILL
THEN SHIFT TOWARD A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO NORTHWEST PA LATE IN
THE DAY. A WEAKENING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A BRIEF
VIS REDUCTION AT KBFD LATE IN THE DAY...AND POSSIBLY AT
KIPT/KUNV/KAOO/KJST ARND 00Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUN-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
140 AM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 130 AM...ALL QUIET THUS FAR. VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING IN THE
LITTLE TN RIVER VALLEY...AS EXPECTED. TEMP TRENDS LOOK OK. NO
CHANGES.
AS OF 1030 PM...ANOTHER CLEAR NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS DRY
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURE ACROSS THE
AREA. SLOWLY BUT SURELY INCREASING DEWPOINTS/LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES SHOULD YIELD MIN TEMPS ABOUT A DEGREE WARMER THAN FRIDAY
MORNING...OR WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF CLIMO. OTHERWISE...FOG/LOW
STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP/EXPAND ACROSS THE LITTLE TENN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT DRAINAGES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT REMAIN
SPORADIC ACROSS MOST OF THE OTHER MAJOR VALLEYS.
AS OF 735 PM...DEWPOINTS MIXED OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...SO ITS
ANOTHER DECENT LATE SUMMER EVENING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER NOW THAT AFTERNOON CU HAS MOSTLY
DISSIPATED. TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT.
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
NORTHERN TIER BELT OF WESTERLIES SPREADS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET INCREASINGLY PINCHED OVERHEAD
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. PROFILES OVER OUR AREA WILL STAY
RELATIVELY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP DO INDICATE PATCHY LOWER
STRATUS TRYING TO MAKE A RUN WESTWARD FROM THE COAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. MOST CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS
AND THEN A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS WITH HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND...WITH MINS AT LEAST A
CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...AND TWO TO THREE
CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...A DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM
THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE FA BY SUNSET. SKY COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AND NO FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE U80S EAST.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE GFS INDICATE THAT
WEAK 300 K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY LLVL SE FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WIDESPREAD WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ON
MONDAY. THICK CLOUDS...RAINFALL...AND DEVELOPING NE SFC WINDS WILL
FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS CONSENSUS. I WILL FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE L70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE L80S
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH AN UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA AND MORPH INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
BY LATE WED. THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE
REGION INTO FRI WITH BROAD SCALE UPPER RIDGING SPREADING FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SAME PERIOD. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS DOES TRY TO MAINTAIN THE CLOSED LOW ABOUT 24 TO 48 HRS
LONGER THAN THE OLDER RUN OF THE ECWMF. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TUES
WITH A BROAD LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...WITH SIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THE GFS AND THE CMC KEEP
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE WELL INTO THURS WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
SLIDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SFC HIGH. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE CWFA BY FRI WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW UP THE
EAST COAST ON TUES AND THEN WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE WED ALL WHILE
KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FCST AREA THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON A GFS TYPE
SOLUTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST DAY OR 2
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS APPEAR MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
VALUES WARMING A FEW DEGREES THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE NEARING
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES FOR MID/LATE SEPT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...VFR THRU THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE
WILL KEEP A LIGHT N OR NE WIND ACROSS THE REGION THRU SATURDAY
EVENING. STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT SOME LOW CLOUDINESS WILL MOVE
TOWARD KCLT BY DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECT THAT EVEN IF IT DOES
HAPPEN...CLOUD BASE WILL BE VFR. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT VALLEY
FOG/LOW STRATUS AT KAVL AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT GOING WITH PERSISTENCE
ONCE AGAIN...HAVE LIMITED THE RESTRICTION TO A TEMPO. A FEW STRATOCU
MAY DEVELOP AT 060 OR ABOVE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...CLEAR SKY.
OUTLOOK...THE POSSIBILITY OF MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL CONTINUE SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AND A DEVELOPING MID
LEVEL LOW MAY INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
05-11Z 11-17Z 17-23Z 23-00Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG/JDL/PM
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1231 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO PAINT A VERY SKIMPY PRECIP
PATTERN OVER THE MID STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO, WILL
LEAVE OUR LOW POP FCST IN PLACE. SHORTLY AFTER NOON, AREA RADARS
SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
NORTHWESTERN TENNESSEE. SINCE CLOUDS ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THIN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TEMPS ARE WARMING NICELY IN THE W-SWLY PRE-
FRONTAL FLOW. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMP EXPECTATIONS UP A FEW
DEGS FOR THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS (INCLUDING
THE NASHVILLE AREA).
NEW SUITE OF PRODUCTS, REFLECTING THESE UPDATES, HAS ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 90 62 80 59 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 84 58 78 54 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 83 62 77 57 / 10 20 20 10
COLUMBIA 90 63 80 58 / 20 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 88 63 80 59 / 10 20 10 10
WAVERLY 86 59 78 56 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
540 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
FIGURING IN SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...
INCLUDING BELOW REFERENCED LIMITED MOISTURE POTENTIAL ALSO...BELIEVE
AT BEST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CB CEILINGS WITH VCTS 19/16Z
W TO 19/22Z E. ACTUAL CLRING TIMING AMOUNT OF POSSIBLE CEILING
EROSION STILL IN QUESTION BEHIND SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BELIEVE BECAUSE
OF LATE AFTERNOON MIXING POTENTIAL CKV...A TRANSITION TO SCT AC OR SKC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY NO LATER THAN 20/03Z. VFR BKN STRATUS CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST BNA THRU AT LEAST 20/10Z WITH A TRANSITION FROM HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR CEILINGS CSV WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS
POSSIBLY 20/10Z.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM
CHI TOWN SW ACROSS NORTHERN TX. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO MOVE THE
FRONT OUR WAY. FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SO
AS TO PROMOTE A LOW 20 POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY
ROUTE...WELL NORTH OF TN. HRRR IS VERY STINGY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE EXPECTED QPF FIELDS
ON THE LOW SIDE.
AT ANY RATE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BETWEEN NOW AND THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THEN...WE`LL LEAN TOWARD PARTIAL CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. THE COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER
THE FROPA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS NEAR 80 WEST OF
PLATEAU...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM 55 TO 60 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
NT.
LONG TERM(TUE-SAT)...
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS MORNING`S
RUNS...BUT A GENERAL TREND FOR MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK
TOWARD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND OR MAYBE A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY SKIES ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD TOO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ALONG
WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BE THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU THIS PERIOD. DEPENDING ON MODEL LEAN...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE MID STATE PLATEAU WED AFTERNOON AND ON FRI...
LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINA`S AND EITHER EVENTUALLY GO NEWD OF OR
SWD OF MID STATE...GENERALLY RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
MID STATE. MENTION OF ISO SHWRS ON SAT PER POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE
BEING USHERED ACROSS ERN HALF IF CIRCULATION ACTUALLY MOVES NEWD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 88 63 80 59 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 58 78 54 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 82 62 77 57 / 10 20 20 10
COLUMBIA 88 62 80 58 / 20 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 87 63 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 87 59 78 56 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
537 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
FIGURING IN SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...
INCLUDING BELOW REFERENCED LIMITED MOISTURE POTENTIAL ALSO...
BELIEVE AT BEST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CB CEILINGS
WITH VCTS 19/16Z W TO 19/22Z E. ACTUAL CLRING TIMING AMOUNT OF
POSSIBLE CEILING EROSION STILL IN QUESTION BEHIND SFC FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT BELIEVE BECAUSE OF LATE AFTERNOON MIXING POTENTIAL
CKV...A TRANSITION TO SCT AC OR SKC CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY NO
LATER THAN 20/03Z. VFR BKN STRATUS CEILINGS SHOULD PERSIST BNA
THRU AT LEAST 20/10Z WITH A TRANSITION FROM HIGH END MVFR CEILINGS
TO IFR CEILINGS CSV WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLY 20/10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 532 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
FIGURING IN SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...
INCLUDING BELOW REFERENCED LIMITED MOISTURE POTENTIAL ALSO...BELIEVE
AT BEST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CB CEILINGS WITH VCTS 19/16Z
W TO 19/22Z E. ACTUAL CLRING TIMING AMOUNT OF POSSIBLE CEILING
EROSION STILL IN QUESTION BEHIND SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BELIEVE BECAUSE
OF LATE AFTERNOON MIXING POTENTIAL CKV...A TRANSITION TO SCT AC OR SKC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY NO LATER THAN 20/03Z. VFR BKN STRATUS CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST BNA THRU AT LEAST 20/10Z WITH A TRANSITION FROM HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR CEILINGS CSV WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLY 20/10Z.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM
CHI TOWN SW ACROSS NORTHERN TX. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO MOVE THE
FRONT OUR WAY. FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SO
AS TO PROMOTE A LOW 20 POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY
ROUTE...WELL NORTH OF TN. HRRR IS VERY STINGY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE EXPECTED QPF FIELDS
ON THE LOW SIDE.
AT ANY RATE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BETWEEN NOW AND THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THEN...WE`LL LEAN TOWARD PARTIAL CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. THE COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER
THE FROPA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS NEAR 80 WEST OF
PLATEAU...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM 55 TO 60 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
NT.
LONG TERM(TUE-SAT)...
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS MORNING`S
RUNS...BUT A GENERAL TREND FOR MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK
TOWARD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND OR MAYBE A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY SKIES ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD TOO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ALONG
WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BE THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU THIS PERIOD. DEPENDING ON MODEL LEAN...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE MID STATE PLATEAU WED AFTERNOON AND ON FRI...
LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINA`S AND EITHER EVENTUALLY GO NEWD OF OR
SWD OF MID STATE...GENERALLY RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
MID STATE. MENTION OF ISO SHWRS ON SAT PER POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE
BEING USHERED ACROSS ERN HALF IF CIRCULATION ACTUALLY MOVES NEWD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 88 63 80 59 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 58 78 54 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 82 62 77 57 / 10 20 20 10
COLUMBIA 88 62 80 58 / 20 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 87 63 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 87 59 78 56 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
532 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
FIGURING IN SUBTLE MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING...
INCLUDING BELOW REFERENCED LIMITED MOISTURE POTENTIAL ALSO...BELIEVE
AT BEST TAF SITES WILL EXPERIENCE MAINLY VFR CB CEILINGS WITH VCTS 19/16Z
W TO 19/22Z E. ACTUAL CLRING TIMING AMOUNT OF POSSIBLE CEILING
EROSION STILL IN QUESTION BEHIND SFC FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BELIEVE BECAUSE
OF LATE AFTERNOON MIXING POTENTIAL CKV...A TRANSITION TO SCT AC OR SKC
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY NO LATER THAN 20/03Z. VFR BKN STRATUS CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST BNA THRU AT LEAST 20/10Z WITH A TRANSITION FROM HIGH END
MVFR CEILINGS TO IFR CEILINGS CSV WITH MVFR FOG INDUCED VSBYS POSSIBLY 20/10Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 354 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM
CHI TOWN SW ACROSS NORTHERN TX. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO MOVE THE
FRONT OUR WAY. FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SO
AS TO PROMOTE A LOW 20 POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY
ROUTE...WELL NORTH OF TN. HRRR IS VERY STINGY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE EXPECTED QPF FIELDS
ON THE LOW SIDE.
AT ANY RATE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BETWEEN NOW AND THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THEN...WE`LL LEAN TOWARD PARTIAL CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. THE COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER
THE FROPA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS NEAR 80 WEST OF
PLATEAU...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM 55 TO 60 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
NT.
LONG TERM(TUE-SAT)...
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS MORNING`S
RUNS...BUT A GENERAL TREND FOR MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK
TOWARD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND OR MAYBE A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY SKIES ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD TOO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ALONG
WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BE THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU THIS PERIOD. DEPENDING ON MODEL LEAN...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE MID STATE PLATEAU WED AFTERNOON AND ON FRI...
LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINA`S AND EITHER EVENTUALLY GO NEWD OF OR
SWD OF MID STATE...GENERALLY RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
MID STATE. MENTION OF ISO SHWRS ON SAT PER POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE
BEING USHERED ACROSS ERN HALF IF CIRCULATION ACTUALLY MOVES NEWD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 88 63 80 59 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 58 78 54 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 82 62 77 57 / 10 20 20 10
COLUMBIA 88 62 80 58 / 20 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 87 63 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 87 59 78 56 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
354 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)... COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM
CHI TOWN SW ACROSS NORTHERN TX. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. WILL BE SINKING SOUTHWARD AND UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES SHOULD PREVAIL BY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ACT TO MOVE THE
FRONT OUR WAY. FROPA IS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE VERY
LIMITED. IT DOES APPEAR THAT JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE SO
AS TO PROMOTE A LOW 20 POP FOR MOST OF THE AREA FOR TODAY AND THIS
EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL TAKE A NORTHERLY
ROUTE...WELL NORTH OF TN. HRRR IS VERY STINGY WITH ANY APPRECIABLE
PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL THEREFORE KEEP THE EXPECTED QPF FIELDS
ON THE LOW SIDE.
AT ANY RATE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SLOWLY BETWEEN NOW AND THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THEN...WE`LL LEAN TOWARD PARTIAL CLOUD COVER.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...WARM AGAIN FOR TODAY. HIGHS WILL BE WELL
INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS. THE COOL DOWN WILL BEGIN TONIGHT AFTER
THE FROPA. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS NEAR 80 WEST OF
PLATEAU...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM 55 TO 60 FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN SAT
NT.
.LONG TERM(TUE-SAT)...
DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL REMAIN WITH THIS MORNING`S
RUNS...BUT A GENERAL TREND FOR MID TO LATER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK
TOWARD A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLY THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND...AND EVEN THEN ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE MID STATE. TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND OR MAYBE A FEW DEGREES HERE AND THERE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES. MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTCLDY SKIES ARE CONTINUED TO BE EXPECTED
THRU THIS PERIOD TOO. BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ALONG
WITH BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES WILL BE THE MAJOR WX
PLAYER THRU THIS PERIOD. DEPENDING ON MODEL LEAN...UPPER LEVEL CLOSED
LOW CIRCULATION THAT PREVIOUSLY WAS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING
CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO THE MID STATE PLATEAU WED AFTERNOON AND ON FRI...
LOOKS TO DEVELOP BY THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WORK WEEK IN AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE CAROLINA`S AND EITHER EVENTUALLY GO NEWD OF OR
SWD OF MID STATE...GENERALLY RESULTING IN NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO THE
MID STATE. MENTION OF ISO SHWRS ON SAT PER POSSIBILITY OF SOME MOISTURE
BEING USHERED ACROSS ERN HALF IF CIRCULATION ACTUALLY MOVES NEWD.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 88 63 80 59 / 20 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 86 58 78 54 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 82 62 77 57 / 10 20 20 10
COLUMBIA 88 62 80 58 / 20 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 87 63 80 59 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 87 59 78 56 / 20 20 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
637 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KCDS AND
TEMPO GROUP IN CURRENT TAF REFLECTS TIME OF ARRIVAL BASED ON
CURRENT SPEED AND MOTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON
LOCAL TIME.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN...AND IS AIDING STREAMING A FETCH
OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EMERGENCE OF A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS IS HELPING TO VEER FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEAR ZONAL TO THE NW AND AS SUCH...IS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SWRD WITH TIME. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THANKS TO LAST
NIGHTS ADEQUATE LLJ COUPLED WITH WAA...THE ONCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE BECOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE UA
RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY EXPANDING WRD TOWARDS THE REGION IS
HELPING TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TOP DOWN...INITIALLY NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...NWRN AND NRN ZONES GIVEN CLEARING SKIES
THERE...AND WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN TO ACROSS THE SERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. SFC TROUGHING/A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...COMBINED
WITH A BIT OF INSOLATION....DETERIORATING CIN AND SB CAPE VALUES OF
1200+ J/KG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RAISES CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORMS /POSSIBLY STRONG/ FIRING UP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. IN FACT...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWED CI OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE NW OF WHEELER TX AS
WELL AS SW OF MEMPHIS TX ALONG THAT SFC BOUNDARY. THE TTU WRF
MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA WHICH APPEARS TO NOT
HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE HRRR ON THE OTHER-HAND MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP SITUATION...AS IT DEVELOPS SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE WHICH THEN PUSHES SOUTH
TO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DESPITE THE
MEAN FLOW BEING THE FROM THE W-SW. PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/A
COLD POOL COULD AID IN THIS SWRD TRAJECTORY. HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED
TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 21/06Z.
TONIGHT...THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE FA...AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WRD TOWARDS THE REGION.
NWRLY FLOW WILL THEREFORE BRIEFLY BECOME ESTABLISHED...HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE FILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM SOLUTION IN PARTICULARLY HONES IN
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK...AS SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. FURTHERMORE...IT IS
LIKELY HANGING ITS HAT ON LAST NIGHT/S AND TODAY/S PRECIP ACTIVITY
BEING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED. THOUGH LOOKING
BACK...THE BEST PRECIP /SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH/ FELL ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND PERMIAN BASIN VERSUS SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
CWA. NOT SURE IF THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE RATHER DENSE FOG AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM /BELOW 1/4 MILE/ BUT PERHAPS LIGHT FOG/HAZE AND/OR
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY...THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THE BULK OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WE WILL
HOLD ON TO SMALL THUNDER MENTION ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AREAS
TUESDAY. QUICKLY FOLLOWING WILL BE THE OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
BAJA THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP AND MAINTAINING MORE
INTENSITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD FALL OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES INITIALLY AS UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTH AND WEST
EVENTUALLY TO REFORM FURTHER WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THOUGH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT...STILL VALID FOR A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REFORMS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THIS MAY OPEN
A WINDOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOW TO DIP
BACK SOUTHWARD. OUR SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS
AND WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GIVES SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THAT FAR EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AFTER
AN INITIAL COUPLE OR THREE FAIRLY WARM DAYS THIS WEEK...THE
COMBINATION OF IMPROVED MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH LESS
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 60 88 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 60 89 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 60 87 61 85 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 92 67 94 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1258 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE MAJOR AIRPORTS SO FAR
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WACO...ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS
NOT VERY STRONG AND THE BOUNDARY MAY ACTUALLY WOBBLE A BIT THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY FLOW DOES PREVAIL AT THIS TIME IN
THE METROPLEX AND THAT SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
EARLIER CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST 2
HOURS BUT THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF RAIN THAT EXTENDS FROM DFW
NORTHEAST TO PARIS. NEW CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST
OF THE METROPLEX IN MORE UNSTABLE AIR ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
AT THIS TIME...WILL PREVAIL VFR CONDITIONS AT THE MAJOR AIRPORTS
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME MVFR CIGS JUST TO THE NORTHWEST. THINKING
IS THAT THESE WILL SCATTER OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BECOME
LGT/VAR OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THROUGH
WACO AT THIS TIME...SO WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE THERE.
DUNN
&&
.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OUT WEST. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AJS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF
LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WORK
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE HRRR AND TT WRF SPREAD
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE DFW METROPLEX 10-12Z SO
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO NEAR A PALESTINE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY
AND STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE WEST END OF
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE ENTIRE
FRONT LIFTS OUT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND MONDAY POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT....AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO PWATS NEAR/AROUND
2 INCHES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT CHANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSED ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CREEP UPWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES...MAINLY RURAL AREAS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THE LAST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING A
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERN STATES AND THE
UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THUS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 90 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
WACO, TX 93 70 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 87 67 87 66 87 / 50 20 30 30 20
DENTON, TX 87 69 89 68 91 / 50 40 20 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 88 69 90 69 90 / 50 30 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 89 73 90 71 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 69 91 / 30 20 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 94 71 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 93 69 93 70 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 67 90 68 91 / 40 40 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1244 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST /18Z/ AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...ASIDE FROM THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF THE
FORECAST...STRAIGHTFORWARD SITUATION UPCOMING THROUGH MIDDAY
SUNDAY. EVEN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...THERE WAS ENOUGH MOISTURE
THROUGH 700 MB (WHICH SEEMS TO BE THE MAGIC FORMULA SOMETIMES) FOR
SCATTERED BUT LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS NEARBY AND OVER KBRO AND KHRL.
UNLIKE RECENT DAYS...LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS SLACKENED AND CELLS NOT
MOVING ALL THAT MUCH WITH A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT. SO...HAVE KEPT
MVFR VISIBILITY RAIN AT KBRO THROUGH 3 PM AND ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR KHRL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT ALL AROUND THEM. WILL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE FOR THUNDER AND IFR VISIBILITY ALONG WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
MAY HAVE TO AMEND AT KHRL.
FOR KMFE...DRY AIR DOMINATES AND WITH LITTLE WESTWARD MOTION TODAY
HAVE LEFT MENTIONABLE RAIN/VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OUT OF THE
FORECAST.
AFTER THE ACTIVITY CALMS DOWN...SKIES RETURN TO FEW-SCATTERED VFR
CUMULUS AND THE USUAL 10-15 KNOT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT
WILL SPREAD FROM KHRL/KBRO TO KMFE BY 4-5 PM OR SO. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OVERNIGHT AND WINDS DROP TOWARD CALM...WITH FAIR WEATHER
HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR SCATTERED CUMULUS BY 14/15Z SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERE
LOOKS A TAD DRIER SUNDAY SO HAVE LEFT OUT RAIN MENTION AFTER 16Z
BUT MAY NEED TO REVIEW WITH LATER FORECASTS.
52/BSG
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RESIDING OVER TEXAS. ONCE AGAIN PATCHY GROUND
FOG MAY DEVELOP PRODUCING MVFR VSBY FOR AN HOUR OR LESS THIS
MORNING WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOWING CONDITIONS NOT THAT
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. WITH THE FOG HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME
FORMING THIS MORNING WILL ONLY MENTION TEMPS CONDITIONS FOR AN
HOUR AT KHRL AND KMFE. A FEW SHOWERS LINGER ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST BUT REMAIN FAR REMOVED FROM THE 3
TERMINALS SITES. A WEAK SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND TODAY AND MAY
SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT THE WIDE DISTRIBUTION OF THE SHOWERS
SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE TERMINALS AND NO SHWR OR RAIN IS MENTIONED
IN THE LATEST TAFS. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO EAST WIND TO PREVAIL.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...500 MB RIDGE WELL ESTABLISHED
OVER TEXAS WITH A VERY DRY 700-300MB LAYER IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH
TEXAS. MEAN RH WITHIN THIS LAYER IS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH THE LOWER
10K FEET STILL EXHIBITING THE TYPICAL RH LEVELS OF 50 TO 80 PERCENT.
TIME HEIGHT FORECAST INDICATE SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER
LAYER OVER THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW AND
THERMAL GRADIENT TO INITIALIZE A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL COMBINE WITH THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT TO PRODUCE AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO SOME WHERE BETWEEN INTERSTATE HIGHWAYS 69E
AND 69C LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. IF THE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR
MIXES THROUGH THE LOWER LAYER QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CONVECTION WILL
BE VERY DIFFICULT TO DEVELOP AND THE SLIGHT CHANCES WILL EVAPORATE
QUICKLY. THE DRY AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
WITH PWAT VALUES LOWERING WELL BELOW MID SEPTEMBER NORMALS WHICH
WILL MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGED 3
TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL YESTERDAY AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATED THIS TREND TODAY AND SUNDAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...LOW TO MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SUNDAY AS THE 500MB
RIDGE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. A 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. ALLOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BUT THE FRONT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH TX. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN SUBSIDENT ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A 500MB LOW CUTTING OFF FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. RETROGRADES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND AMPLIFIES. WILL CONTINUE
NOT TO MENTION RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARM AND
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
RESIDE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF TODAY SPREADING EASTWARD SUNDAY.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND A SLOW SUBSIDING SEA IS EXPECTED.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
STALLS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK ACROSS
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1241 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is thunderstorms
affecting terminals this afternoon/evening and potentially
overnight. Currently have a cold front located near the Pecos
River Valley with NE winds and SCT-BKN low cigs to the north of
this boundary. Low cigs continue to affect CNM/HOB/MAF but clouds
will scatter out shortly over most areas. Showers and storms
moving north across far west this morning will continue to move
north and potentially affect CNM in the next couple hours. In
addition, should see TS activity increase near the front later
this afternoon but confidence in timing and specific locations is
low, therefore just mentioned TSRA in a TEMPO for a few hours this
afternoon at all terminals.
Some forecast models indicate thunderstorms lasting well into the
night and potentially through early Sunday morning. For now, will
hold off on any mention of thunder beyond this evening. Will
continue to monitor current radar/satellite trends and amend when
needed. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail except
where TSRA may result in brief periods of low vis.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Saturday...a brief respite from
the heat this weekend.
Sfc obs and KMAF radar is indc that a cold front is currently over
the Central Permian Basin. A few small thunderstorms are popping
up behind the front. There are also a few thunderstorms along the
Rio Grande in Northwest Presidio County along the edge of a large
MCS centered over portions of Sonora and Chihuahua Mexico.
The HRRR and RAP13 hi-res models move the cold front slowly south
this morning...stalling near or north of I-10 this aftn. With good
low-level convergence and weak mid level impulses the hi-res
models bring a good shot of convection along the I-20 corridor
this morning...moving south this aftn. The main impacts from the
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds. With
the rain potential and cloud cover it will be significantly cooler
than yesterday...in fact today should be the coolest day this
month. Have continued convective chances tonight with the front
over the CWA. The cold front will retreat north/wash out on Sunday
as a ridge builds back into the Southern Plains/Rockies. Temps
will warm to near seasonal levels on Sunday with a slight chance
of thunderstorms.
A blocking pattern develops over the CONUS next week with a trough
along both coasts and a ridge over the Central US. Shortwaves will
ride over the ridge...occasionally flattening it slightly. The
Davis Mtns...and even more so the Guadalupe Mtns will be on the
eastern edge of any convective activity into mid week.
Otherwise...the rest of the CWA will be dry. Even though the
center of the H85 thermal ridge will be just west of the CWA
expect temps next week to be 5-10 degrees above normal...with
widespread low 90s and even a few mid 90s across the lower
elevations. Widespread 80s are expected in the Mtns...with upper
80s along the extreme northern portions of the CWA. The latest GFS
ensemble forecasts keeps West Texas/Southeast New Mexico dry with
above normal temperatures through the end of September and into
the first several days of October.
Strobin
MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1002 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...HAVE UPDATED POPS FOR TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
THE NORTHEAST ZONES AND MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE OUT WEST. EXPECT
THE COLD FRONT TO STALL AND BECOME LESS DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
AJS
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 714 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
/12Z TAFS/
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT SMITH TO SHERMAN TO
ABILENE AT 12Z. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM-INDUCED COLD POOL OVER WRN OK HAS LIMITED THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...
THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH VIGOR TO PRESS ONWARD INTO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING...REACHING A CORSICANA-
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY 06Z TONIGHT.
ONE OR MORE WEAK SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ARISING FROM THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NW OF THE METROPLEX...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE DFW-AREA TAF SITES IN THE 12-14Z TIMEFRAME....TEMPORARILY
VEERING WINDS AT SOME LOCATIONS TO A LIGHT WEST/NW DIRECTION. THE
MAIN FRONT ITSELF SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THESE TAF SITES BY
15-16Z...PRODUCING SUSTAINED N TO NE FLOW FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS OF 12Z...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DFW AREA THROUGH 22Z. THROUGH 16Z THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. AS DAYTIME
HEATING ENSUES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ANYWHERE NORTH OF I-20 IN THE 16-22Z WINDOW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TODAY...HOWEVER...EVEN IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF WACO THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO NUDGE SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO A SE-
EAST DIRECTION AFTER 22Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR WACO...BUT THE THREAT IS SUFFICIENTLY
LOW TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT WACO THROUGH TONIGHT.
BRADSHAW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF
LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WORK
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE HRRR AND TT WRF SPREAD
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE DFW METROPLEX 10-12Z SO
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO NEAR A PALESTINE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY
AND STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE WEST END OF
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE ENTIRE
FRONT LIFTS OUT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND MONDAY POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT....AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO PWATS NEAR/AROUND
2 INCHES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT CHANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSED ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CREEP UPWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES...MAINLY RURAL AREAS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THE LAST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING A
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERN STATES AND THE
UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THUS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 90 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
WACO, TX 93 70 95 71 93 / 10 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 87 67 87 66 87 / 50 20 30 30 20
DENTON, TX 87 69 89 68 91 / 50 40 20 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 88 69 90 69 90 / 50 30 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 89 73 90 71 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 69 91 / 30 20 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 94 71 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 93 69 93 70 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 67 90 68 91 / 40 40 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
714 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
DIFFUSE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR FT SMITH TO SHERMAN TO
ABILENE AT 12Z. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND THE LACK OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM-INDUCED COLD POOL OVER WRN OK HAS LIMITED THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...
THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE ENOUGH VIGOR TO PRESS ONWARD INTO THE
INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR BY LATE MORNING...REACHING A CORSICANA-
GOLDTHWAITE LINE BY 06Z TONIGHT.
ONE OR MORE WEAK SURFACE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...ARISING FROM THE
EARLY MORNING CONVECTION NW OF THE METROPLEX...SHOULD MOVE ACROSS
THE DFW-AREA TAF SITES IN THE 12-14Z TIMEFRAME....TEMPORARILY
VEERING WINDS AT SOME LOCATIONS TO A LIGHT WEST/NW DIRECTION. THE
MAIN FRONT ITSELF SHOULD CLEAR ALL OF THESE TAF SITES BY
15-16Z...PRODUCING SUSTAINED N TO NE FLOW FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE I-35
CORRIDOR AS OF 12Z...AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DFW AREA THROUGH 22Z. THROUGH 16Z THIS
MORNING...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. AS DAYTIME
HEATING ENSUES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ANYWHERE NORTH OF I-20 IN THE 16-22Z WINDOW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES AT THE METROPLEX TAF SITES SHOULD REMAIN VFR
TODAY...HOWEVER...EVEN IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN JUST NORTH OF WACO THROUGH MOST OF
TODAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH TO NUDGE SOUTHERLY WINDS BACK TO A SE-
EAST DIRECTION AFTER 22Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR WACO...BUT THE THREAT IS SUFFICIENTLY
LOW TO PRECLUDE MENTION IN THE 12Z TAF. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AT WACO THROUGH TONIGHT.
BRADSHAW
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF
LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WORK
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE HRRR AND TT WRF SPREAD
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE DFW METROPLEX 10-12Z SO
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO NEAR A PALESTINE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY
AND STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE WEST END OF
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE ENTIRE
FRONT LIFTS OUT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND MONDAY POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT....AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO PWATS NEAR/AROUND
2 INCHES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT CHANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSED ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CREEP UPWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES...MAINLY RURAL AREAS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THE LAST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING A
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERN STATES AND THE
UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THUS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 90 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
WACO, TX 93 70 95 71 93 / 20 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 87 67 87 66 87 / 30 20 30 30 20
DENTON, TX 87 69 89 68 91 / 40 40 20 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 88 69 90 69 90 / 40 30 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 89 73 90 71 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 94 71 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 93 69 93 70 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 67 90 68 91 / 40 40 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
641 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FILLED IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT/S FROPA AND THEY WILL
LIKELY STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE THE RULE AT KLBB AND KPVW...THOUGH KCDS WILL BE MOSTLY
IN LOW VFR TERRITORY. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY SCATTER/LIFT TO VFR
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING AT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD VISIT
THE TERMINALS ALMOST ANY TIME OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THOUGH
OVERALL PROBABILITIES OF A DIRECT IMPACT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WIND THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER WEATHER THANKS TO A COLD
FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. THE COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY
EXITED THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT WELL TO OUR
SOUTH NEAR I-10 THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...WE HAVE SEEN A
LITTLE CONVECTION LINGER ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TIED TO AN ELEVATED
FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGER INTO
THE DAY TODAY...THE MORE CERTAIN BET IS FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS TO
FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. THESE STUBBORN CLOUDS ALONG WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL PROVIDE A MUCH COOLER DAY TODAY. IN FACT
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE SOME 25 TO 30 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...ONLY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST
SPOTS.
REGARDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES...IT IS TOUGH TO FIND ANY
GOOD FORCING WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WELL TO THE SOUTH AND SURFACE
RIDGING BUILDING IN...BUT WITH A RELATIVELY MOIST TROPOSPHERE IN
PLACE IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH EITHER...SO WE HAVE CONTINUED WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS TODAY /FAVORING THE SOUTHERN
ZONES/. THE NWP SUPPORTS THIS TOO...WITH LIGHT QPF SMATTERED ABOUT
THE CWA BUT NO CLEAR COHERENT SIGNAL. WE WILL THEN SEE AN UPTICK IN
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE TONIGHT AS A MODEST SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS. THIS
COUPLED WITH A POSSIBLE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE AND EVEN RICHER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST COULD IMPROVE OUR RAIN
CHANCES SOMEWHAT...THOUGH THE BEST FORCING MAY STAY SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE CWA. THE NWP GUIDANCE IS NOT OVERWHELMING WITH REGARDS TO QPF
PRODUCTION LOCALLY EITHER...LIMITING OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN RAIN
CHANCES. GIVEN THIS WE HAVE CARRIED LOW CHANCE POPS FOR MOST OF THE
FA TONIGHT. THE RELATIVELY MOIST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL
HELP SECURE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE TO MIDDLE 60S IN THE ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
THE RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING WARMER TEMPS...LINGERING
MOISTURE...AND A PASSING WEAK SHORTWAVE ARGUE FOR MAINTAINING A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY. QPF SIGNALS IN THE
GUIDANCE ARE PRETTY WEAK AND THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE
DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE TEMPS REMAINING RELATIVELY
COOL /80S/...SO WE`VE KEPT POPS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. THE
UPPER WAVE MOVES OFF ON MONDAY WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN OVER NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS BACK UP NEAR 90 FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE...WE ARE STILL LOOKING FOR A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO SPREAD OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST DOWNSTREAM OF AN
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. A SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN THIS PLUME SHOULD SPREAD SHOWER AND T-STORM ACTIVITY
NEWD ACROSS NEW MEXICO...AND PERHAPS BRUSH OUR COUNTIES ALONG THE
TX/NM STATE LINE LATE TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND EJECTS
NEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AROUND MIDWEEK. THE GFS AND ECMWF
CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE ECMWF
SOMEWHAT DEEPER AND SLOWER THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAY
SUPPORT SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A
NARROW UPPER RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW AND TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 70 58 85 60 / 20 20 20 10
TULIA 70 58 83 60 / 20 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 70 60 83 61 / 20 30 20 10
LEVELLAND 73 61 83 62 / 20 30 20 10
LUBBOCK 73 62 84 63 / 20 30 20 10
DENVER CITY 74 62 82 62 / 30 40 20 10
BROWNFIELD 74 62 83 63 / 30 30 20 10
CHILDRESS 74 63 85 66 / 20 30 30 20
SPUR 74 63 85 65 / 20 30 20 10
ASPERMONT 78 66 88 66 / 30 30 30 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
639 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Cold front moving through the area and storms beginning to
develop over the Central Permian Basin. Expect storm coverage to
increase... have TSRA in all TAFs. Low clouds moving south behind
the front with low MVFR cigs.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 423 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Saturday...a brief respite from
the heat this weekend.
Sfc obs and KMAF radar is indc that a cold front is currently over
the Central Permian Basin. A few small thunderstorms are popping
up behind the front. There are also a few thunderstorms along the
Rio Grande in Northwest Presidio County along the edge of a large
MCS centered over portions of Sonora and Chihuahua Mexico.
The HRRR and RAP13 hi-res models move the cold front slowly south
this morning...stalling near or north of I-10 this aftn. With good
low-level convergence and weak mid level impulses the hi-res
models bring a good shot of convection along the I-20 corridor
this morning...moving south this aftn. The main impacts from the
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds. With
the rain potential and cloud cover it will be significantly cooler
than yesterday...in fact today should be the coolest day this
month. Have continued convective chances tonight with the front
over the CWA. The cold front will retreat north/wash out on Sunday
as a ridge builds back into the Southern Plains/Rockies. Temps
will warm to near seasonal levels on Sunday with a slight chance
of thunderstorms.
A blocking pattern develops over the CONUS next week with a trough
along both coasts and a ridge over the Central US. Shortwaves will
ride over the ridge...occasionally flattening it slightly. The
Davis Mtns...and even more so the Guadalupe Mtns will be on the
eastern edge of any convective activity into mid week.
Otherwise...the rest of the CWA will be dry. Even though the
center of the H85 thermal ridge will be just west of the CWA
expect temps next week to be 5-10 degrees above normal...with
widespread low 90s and even a few mid 90s across the lower
elevations. Widespread 80s are expected in the Mtns...with upper
80s along the extreme northern portions of the CWA. The latest GFS
ensemble forecasts keeps West Texas/Southeast New Mexico dry with
above normal temperatures through the end of September and into
the first several days of October.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AMARILLO TX
459 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS MORNING THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD PROGRESSED WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES WITH NORTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
COOLER TEMPERATURES HAVE ARRIVED WITH UPPER 40S AT BOISE CITY AND
KENTON. POST-FRONTAL STRATUS SHOULD BE QUITE EXTENSIVE TODAY AS IS
EVIDENT BY WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES AND
HAVE WENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE WHICH MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH.
THIS IS A DOWNWARD TREND FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. HAVE STRUGGLED TO
FIND A NOTABLE SOURCE FOR LIFT SUFFICIENT FOR PRECIPITATION. MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A RELATIVELY SHALLOW SATURATION WITHIN THE
FRONTAL INVERSION. IF SATURATION IS DEEP ENOUGH FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION IT WOULD BE IN THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR WHERE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PERSISTED MUCH OF THE NIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY TOMORROW
EVENING AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD INTO THE
AREA. IN THIS SCENARIO SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR DURING
THE EVENING PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND THIS MAY PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DEPICTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AND BY THAT TIME CLEARING AND INCREASED DIABATIC HEATING WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST MODEST INSTABILITY AND SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY LASTING INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING. SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND THIS WAVE SHOULD BRING AN END TO ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES
FORM BY MID EVENING.
EARLY NEXT WEEK THE MODELS BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE AND AHEAD OF A CLOSED
UPPER LOW APPROACHING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. BY LATE TUESDAY
A WEAK SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE OPENING CLOSED LOW IN COMBINATION WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE MAY LEAD TO SOME CONVECTION IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES. TIMING AND AMPLITUDE DIFFER IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
DIFFER AT THIS TIME RANGE LEADING TO SOME UNCERTAINTY.
BRB
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX 55 84 61 90 65 / 20 20 20 0 0
BEAVER OK 58 83 60 92 66 / 30 20 10 0 0
BOISE CITY OK 53 85 57 92 63 / 10 5 0 0 0
BORGER TX 59 86 64 92 68 / 20 20 10 0 0
BOYS RANCH TX 58 87 60 91 65 / 20 20 5 0 0
CANYON TX 56 84 60 90 63 / 20 20 20 0 0
CLARENDON TX 60 83 62 91 65 / 30 20 20 0 0
DALHART TX 56 88 58 92 62 / 10 10 5 0 0
GUYMON OK 56 86 60 93 65 / 20 10 5 0 0
HEREFORD TX 56 85 60 90 63 / 20 20 10 0 0
LIPSCOMB TX 60 81 62 90 67 / 30 30 20 0 0
PAMPA TX 59 84 62 91 65 / 30 20 20 0 0
SHAMROCK TX 61 80 62 89 65 / 30 30 20 0 0
WELLINGTON TX 63 81 63 90 66 / 30 30 20 0 0
&&
.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.
&&
$$
15/17
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
423 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Saturday...a brief respite from
the heat this weekend.
Sfc obs and KMAF radar is indc that a cold front is currently over
the Central Permian Basin. A few small thunderstorms are popping
up behind the front. There are also a few thunderstorms along the
Rio Grande in Northwest Presidio County along the edge of a large
MCS centered over portions of Sonora and Chihuahua Mexico.
The HRRR and RAP13 hi-res models move the cold front slowly south
this morning...stalling near or north of I-10 this aftn. With good
low-level convergence and weak mid level impulses the hi-res
models bring a good shot of convection along the I-20 corridor
this morning...moving south this aftn. The main impacts from the
thunderstorms will be locally heavy rain and gusty winds. With
the rain potential and cloud cover it will be significantly cooler
than yesterday...in fact today should be the coolest day this
month. Have continued convective chances tonight with the front
over the CWA. The cold front will retreat north/wash out on Sunday
as a ridge builds back into the Southern Plains/Rockies. Temps
will warm to near seasonal levels on Sunday with a slight chance
of thunderstorms.
A blocking pattern develops over the CONUS next week with a trough
along both coasts and a ridge over the Central US. Shortwaves will
ride over the ridge...occasionally flattening it slightly. The
Davis Mtns...and even more so the Guadalupe Mtns will be on the
eastern edge of any convective activity into mid week.
Otherwise...the rest of the CWA will be dry. Even though the
center of the H85 thermal ridge will be just west of the CWA
expect temps next week to be 5-10 degrees above normal...with
widespread low 90s and even a few mid 90s across the lower
elevations. Widespread 80s are expected in the Mtns...with upper
80s along the extreme northern portions of the CWA. The latest GFS
ensemble forecasts keeps West Texas/Southeast New Mexico dry with
above normal temperatures through the end of September and into
the first several days of October.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 81 64 88 64 / 50 30 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 76 66 87 65 / 40 50 30 10
DRYDEN TX 96 73 94 70 / 20 20 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 88 68 89 66 / 40 40 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 71 60 80 62 / 40 50 30 10
HOBBS NM 78 63 84 64 / 30 50 20 10
MARFA TX 81 58 80 57 / 30 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 84 67 88 66 / 50 40 20 10
ODESSA TX 82 67 87 68 / 50 40 20 10
WINK TX 85 68 88 67 / 50 50 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
72/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
240 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM FORT SMITH TO SOUTH OF
LUBBOCK AT 07Z/2AM AND MOVING SOUTHEAST NEAR 18 MPH. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF CONVECTION ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT WILL WORK
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH CONVECTION
SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD AS WELL. THE HRRR AND TT WRF SPREAD
CONVECTION INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE DFW METROPLEX 10-12Z SO
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF TODAY.
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE TO NEAR A PALESTINE TO GOLDTHWAITE LINE
BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN DRIFT NORTHWARD A LITTLE EARLY SUNDAY
AND STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF I-20 DURING THE DAY WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF CONVECTION GENERALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. THE WEST END OF
THE FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN THE ENTIRE
FRONT LIFTS OUT NORTHEAST ON MONDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT POPS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND MONDAY POPS WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
DUE TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ALONG THE FRONT....AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE DUE TO PWATS NEAR/AROUND
2 INCHES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL NOT CHANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT
THEY WILL BE 5-10 DEGREES COOLER BEHIND IT. AS THE FRONT BECOMES
DIFFUSED ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS OUT ON MONDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL
CREEP UPWARD WITH MOST OF THE CWA BACK IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HAVE ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN 1-3
DEGREES...MAINLY RURAL AREAS...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY DUE TO DRIER
AIR SPREADING INTO THE REGION.
LOOKING AHEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND THE LAST WEEK OF
SEPTEMBER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING A
WEAKNESS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTHERN STATES AND THE
UPPER RIDGE OFF TO OUR WEST. THIS PATTERN WOULD RESULT IN LOWER
HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS...AND THUS
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S. 75
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 00Z FORECAST WITH GENERALLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE
STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD LATE THIS EVENING AND SHOULD APPROACH
THE METROPLEX TAF SITES JUST AFTER DAYBREAK WHICH IS A FEW HOURS
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AND
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SO WILL ONLY MENTION
VCTS AT THE METROPLEX TERMINALS. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NORTH OF
WACO AND STORM CHANCES WILL BE EVEN LOWER THERE.
EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. THE WIND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT THE METROPLEX
TERMINALS BETWEEN 13 AND 15Z AND REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. 79
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 88 72 90 72 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
WACO, TX 93 70 95 71 93 / 20 10 10 5 5
PARIS, TX 87 67 87 66 87 / 30 20 30 30 20
DENTON, TX 87 69 89 68 91 / 40 40 20 20 5
MCKINNEY, TX 88 69 90 69 90 / 40 30 20 20 10
DALLAS, TX 89 73 90 71 92 / 40 30 20 10 5
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 69 91 / 20 20 20 20 10
CORSICANA, TX 94 71 93 71 92 / 10 10 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 93 69 93 70 92 / 10 10 5 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 87 67 90 68 91 / 40 40 20 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
/75
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
934 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONE PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
OFFER A SOLUTION THAT REDUCES THE EXTENT THAT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER ROUGHLY 200 AM MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO CONFIRM A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH...AND AFTER...THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTHWEST OF
ROANOKE VIRGINIA. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH ROUGHLY 200 AM.
AS OF 625 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS THAN ISOLATED WITHIN AN AREA AROUND MARTINSVILLE
VIRGINIA...WEST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS CENTRAL STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COLLECTION OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL
WITH A NOSE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AND
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 C. THIS AREA...AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKS OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER WERE MADE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DETERIORIATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEDGE
OF MOIST...COOL AIR IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALL
AFTERNOON AND CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
CIGS LOWERING MOSTLY INTO THE LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT
IFR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...KBCB/KBLF...AND EVENTUALLY MOST
SITES BY 12Z MON. WEDGE WILL PERSIST MON...THUS LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO
BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT...NOT EVEN AT LWB. HOWEVER...IN SOME LOCATIONS
WHERE CIGS DROP TO LOW END IFR OR INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY...VSBYS
WILL ALSO BECOME IFR OR WORSE. MOSTLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS IN
-RA...-DZ...AND BR. WINDS...IF NOT ALREADY...BECOMING NE-ENE
5-7KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT ESE 6-8KTS KBLF.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR
MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
SEVERAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY...RATHER KEEPING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
746 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS THAN ISOLATED WITHIN AN AREA AROUND MARTINSVILLE
VIRGINIA...WEST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS CENTRAL STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COLLECTION OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL
WITH A NOSE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AND
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 C. THIS AREA...AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKS OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER WERE MADE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 740 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DETERIORIATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEDGE
OF MOIST...COOL AIR IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE ALL
AFTERNOON AND CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
ALONG THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. EXPECT CLOUD COVER
TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
CIGS LOWERING MOSTLY INTO THE LOW END OF THE MVFR CATEGORY...BUT
IFR AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...KBCB/KBLF...AND EVENTUALLY MOST
SITES BY 12Z MON. WEDGE WILL PERSIST MON...THUS LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY. VISIBILITIES WILL TEND TO
BE A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. RADIATIONAL FOG WILL NOT BE
AN ISSUE TONIGHT...NOT EVEN AT LWB. HOWEVER...IN SOME LOCATIONS
WHERE CIGS DROP TO LOW END IFR OR INTO THE LIFR CATEGORY...VSBYS
WILL ALSO BECOME IFR OR WORSE. MOSTLY EXPECTING MVFR CIGS IN
-RA...-DZ...AND BR. WINDS...IF NOT ALREADY...BECOMING NE-ENE
5-7KTS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD...EXCEPT ESE 6-8KTS KBLF.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR
MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
SEVERAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY...RATHER KEEPING THE
SYSTEM FURTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/RAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WAS PRODUCING A PICTURE PERFECT AUTUMN-LIKE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD EASTERN
IA/WESTERN IL TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP A VERY LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA....GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH THE WIND DECOUPLES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. RAP BUFKIT
DEPICTING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE ALL THE WAY UP TO
500MB WHILE THE NAM SHOWS WINDS OF 10-15KT FROM 300 FEET AND ABOVE.
WHILE THE RAP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DECOUPLING/FOG...THE NAM
IS TOO WINDY. BESIDE THE WIND...ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BATCH OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...THIS MAY
SHUT DOWN FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL NEEDED FOR FOG. HAVE TO
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME DECOUPLING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...SO WILL STICK WITH
THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING FORECASTER ASSESS FURTHER.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR THESE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
SEASONABLY WARM/SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THAT COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING NARROW BAND OF
WEAK 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/BETTER RAIN CHANCES STAYING MAINLY
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WHERE NAM BUFKIT
INDICATING CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO RELEASE SOME CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF WASHES THIS
TROUGH OUT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS IT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. RESULT IS LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOWING MASSIVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...DRIED THIS PERIOD OUT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE AT
KRST/KLSE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER OMAHA NE MOVES TOWARD CHICAGO IL. BESIDES SOME INCREASING
CIRRUS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...A DRY LOW-MID LEVEL AIR MASS WILL RESULT
IN CLEAR SKIES. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KTS ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL
INVERSION WILL PROHIBIT FOG AT KRST. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT WIND
LAYER MAY BE DEEP ENOUGH AT KLSE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG. WILL
INTRODUCE BCFG AND A LOW SCATTERED CLOUD DECK FROM 20.10Z UNTIL
20.14Z...BUT STILL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME. SUNDAY WILL
BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
923 PM MST SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...VERY LIMITED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THIS EVENING AND
MOST OF THE NIGHT. THAT WILL CHANGE A GREAT DEAL BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINES WITH A PACIFIC LOW TO
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE
POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY WITH SOME FLOODING CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FROM TUCSON
WESTWARD AND IN HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
FOR MOST OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN DURING THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...21/00Z UPPER-AIR PLOTS AND
RECENT MODEL DATA SHOW AN UPPER LOW WELL OFF THE CENTRAL BAJA
COAST...WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E LOCATED AT 26.2 DEGS N;
113.6 DEGS W...OR ABOUT 135 MILES W OF LORETO MEXICO...AS OF 9 PM
MDT (8 PM MST). MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS TO THE NORTH AT 15 MPH...
WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH.
BASED ON THIS LATEST ADVISORY FROM THE HURRICANE CENTER...THE
DEPRESSION WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL BAJA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND THEN
BE IN THE PROCESS OF ENTERING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY. BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING THE DEPRESSION WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NORTH CENTRAL SONORA MEXICO INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS TEMPS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE AT MINUS 84 DEGS CELSIUS AS OF 03Z.
EARLIER THESE READINGS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND COVERED A LARGER
AREA...BUT STILL QUITE RESPECTABLE.
AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MAKE PROGRESS TO THE NORTH...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
TOWARDS DAYBREAK WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING DURING
MUCH OF THE DAY ON MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
SHOWERS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO DECREASE TUESDAY...BUT STILL IN THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CATEGORY BEFORE FINALLY SHUTTING DOWN TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES BY WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID...CURRENTLY SEEING MAINLY
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS SPREADING INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CURRENTLY...BUT WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MID AND LOW LEVEL
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR MODEL SHOWS SOME LIGHT SHOWERS BEGINNING TO ENTER MY
FORECAST AREA OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF SANTA CRUZ AND COCHISE COUNTIES
BY AROUND 10Z THEN CONTINUING TO SPREAD NORTH AND INTENSIFY...WITH
NEARLY ALL OF MY FORECAST AREA AFFECTED BY AT LEAST LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS BEFORE NOON. 00Z RUN OF THE U OF A WRF/NAM SHOWED A
SIMILAR SOLUTION . THAT SAID...THE INHERITED POP FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT SEEMS REASONABLE...SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES WITH THIS SYSTEM
WITH STORMS TOTALS RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5 TO 2.25 INCHES FROM
TUCSON WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH HIGHER VALUES OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LESSER TOTALS FOR AREAS EAST (MAINLY COCHISE COUNTY) SINCE THOSE
AREAS WILL BE FARTHER REMOVED FROM WHERE THE CENTER OF THE
CIRCULATION AND HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THAT SAID...A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM MONDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH 5 PM TUESDAY.
AS OF 03Z (8 PM MST)...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 70S TO THE
UPPER 80S...WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT REPORTING A TEMP OF 88
DEGS...AFTER AN AFTERNOON HIGH OF 95 DEGS. BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA AND THE FACT THAT CLOUDINESS AND EVENTUAL MOISTURE WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION...I WILL INCREASE LOW TEMPS A BIT FOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY ALONG THE BORDER WITH MEXICO.
FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
PLEASE REFER TO THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/06Z. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM
THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS TROPICAL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM
THE SOUTH. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BY
LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR KOLS. INCREASING AND SPREADING AREA WIDE
MONDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS OVERNIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF
TUCSON TODAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL THEN PRODUCE PERIODS OF
SHOWERS...HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...TROPICAL SYSTEMS...EVEN LESS WELL DEFINED ONES
LIKE THE CURRENT FEATURE ABOUT 175 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
BAJA...TYPICALLY FOCUS ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 2 INCHES NEAR THE CORE AND EASTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENTLY
CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE WATER TOTALS ARE SHOWING A VERY LARGE AREA
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA TO THE SOUTHERN GULF...AS WELL
AS THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 3
INCHES. I`M NOT SURE IF I`VE SEEN SUCH A LARGE AREA NEAR OR IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES BEFORE.
THE BOTTOM LINE THOUGH...IS THAT THIS IS DIFFERENT THAN LINDA
EARLIER THIS MONTH IN EVEN MORE IMPORTANT WAYS. WE HAVE A STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPING ON THE ELONGATED EASTERN FLANK OF THE
POORLY DEFINED CENTER. H8 WINDS IN THE 35KT RANGE OUT OF THE SOUTH
PUSHING INTO PIMA COUNTY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY EVENING AS
THE REMNANT LOW PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA. IN ADDITION...WE WILL
HAVE INTERACTION WITH A FAIRLY DECENT LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA COAST THAT WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
DYNAMICS AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FIELD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. SO WE HAVE WHAT MAY END UP BEING RECORD AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE...AND WE HAVE MULTIPLE TRIGGERS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF IT.
THE FORECAST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE...TO SAY THE
LEAST...VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
MONDAY NIGHT. IT WILL BE A VERY EFFICIENT PRECIP PROCESS.
CONSERVATIVE STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY RANGE
FROM ABOUT 1 INCH IN EASTERN AREAS...TO 2.5 INCHES IN WESTERN PIMA
COUNTY WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3
INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
THE BEST AREA OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP AS WELL AS THE SHEARING REMNANT
LOW WILL HAVE LIFTED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. THEN THE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL COME
INTO PLAY BY MID DAY TUESDAY WITH DEEP RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A DEEP WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL START TO DRY THINGS OUT
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Another quiet but cool night across central and southeast Illinois
as high pressure remains in control of the local weather. Light
winds, mostly clear skies, and a dry airmass should allow
overnight temperatures to fall into the 40s again in many areas.
Only plan minor tweaks to the hourly nighttime grids for the
latest trends.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the
ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into
Missouri. A small shortwave on sat imagery to the northwest
forecast in the HRRR to pass to the north this evening. Dominant
high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night.
Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not much to discuss in
terms of weather, but will mention the potential for very patchy
light fog/vis drops. However, leaving it out of the grids as the
afternoon dewpoints are dropping several degrees as the llvls mix
out in the day time heating.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Seeing a consistent signal in the 12z models for a dry week in the
extended forecast across central and southeast IL.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest
across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half
of this week. The southwest end of the surface ridge looks to remain
across central and southern Illinois during that time, keeping
seasonable and dry conditions across our forecast area.
A cold front will approach NW Illinois on Tuesday, reaching eastern
Iowa by 00z Wed/7pm Tues. The front is projected to stall out in
that general area for the rest of the week, as a ridge remains
entrenched across the eastern states due to the blocking effects
of a low pressure system off the central East Coast.
The end result will be some increase in cloud cover for our areas
west of I-55 for the last half of the week, but plenty of dry air
above and below the cloud layer will keep precip at bay.
Low pressure progressing from the SW states will move northeast
along the front later this week, reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into Friday. That will bring another period
of increased cloud cover for our western counties, but no rain.
That low is expected to dissipate on Friday as it passes by to the
north of IL, with expanding high pressure across Illinois in it`s
wake. That will keep dry conditions in the forecast through next
weekend.
As for temperatures this week, the chilly air will remain across our
area into Tuesday. However, southerly flow will develop ahead of the
approaching cold front, bring warmer air to our area the rest of the
week. Highs will reach back into the lower 80s from Wednesday to
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across the
central Illinois terminals through the 06Z TAF valid time. VFR
conditions will prevail, with generally light winds and minimal
cloud cover.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Bak
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Bak
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
358 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
The global models are coming into slightly better agreement
regarding the mid-week increase in precipitation chances. The ECMWF
model is still the most developed, maintaining the most coherent mid
level potential vorticity anomaly as the subtropical low meanders
into western Kansas by Wednesday Night. The Canadian GEM is next in
line and follows closer the ECMWF solution than does the GFS. As a
result, the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF solutions offer the best
scenario for sustained precipitation chances from early to midday
Wednesday lasting into Thursday Night. There will likely be several
rounds with a few breaks within the smaller scale episodes of
precipitation. This does not look like a situation where severe
weather will be much of a risk. Deep subtropical moisture and the
lack of lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will both be negatives
as far as severe weather potential is concerned... both limiting
CAPE. As far as temperatures go, the daytime temperatures will be
trending downward from previous forecast, and do not be surprised to
see further decrease in forecast highs, especially Thursday. The
ECMWF is quite cool on Thursday keeping all of western Kansas in the
60s. We will see if the Canadian GEM and the GFS follow suit in
future runs. The subtropical disturbance will continue to wallow
aimlessly across the western Kansas until it spins itself out...as
the main polar jet will be way off to the north in Canada.
Pronounced lower tropospheric warming will be confined to areas
north of the Central High Plains it would appear, as the subtropical
entity nearby will keep temperatures in check given the absence of
any downslope momentum over western Kansas amidst a fairly deep,
moist troposphere.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Dense fog is likely to cause some aviation problems this morning.
The best time frame for dense fog will be 10-14z, or a 4-5 hour
window as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to move in on
southeast winds. There is pretty high confidence in the fog forecast
with pretty aggressive visibility restriction including run-to-run
continuity from the HRRR model as well as the WRF-ARW, WRF-NNMB, and
NAM12 solutions. IFR category will probably continue through midday
(17z or so) especially up around HYS where it may even persist into
the afternoon hours. There should be a fairly rapid clearing once
the low stratus does start to scatter out. No wind shifts are
forecast during this TAF period with south to southeast winds
continuing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 64 91 65 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 89 63 92 64 / 0 0 20 30
EHA 93 65 90 64 / 0 0 30 40
LBL 91 65 92 65 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 81 63 92 66 / 0 0 10 20
P28 85 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1239 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...Updated Aviation and Short Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium
range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of
high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
Although a prevailing southerly flow will draw some moisture back
north into the area, a lack of significant instability combined
with a persistent weak flow aloft will limit any precip chances
through Tuesday night. However, precip chances will return
to western Kansas Wednesday as an upper level trough of low
pressure is projected to lift northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains while accompanied by a
feed of tropical moisture. Although less than robust, the flow
aloft is expected to strengthen somewhat while a developing
surface low lee of the Rockies continues to enhance a southerly
flow across western Kansas. This will occur ahead of a zone of
increasing surface convergence associated with the lee side
trough axis. Chances for precip will linger into Thursday as
the upper level shortwave is slow to lift further to the
northeast.
Little change is expected to the general air mass across western
Kansas Monday into Tuesday, so look for highs to reach the lower
to mid 90s(F) again Tuesday afternoon. Although the southerly
flow will persist through Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
precip will likely keep high temperatures down a bit Wednesday
afternoon. Same can be said for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Dense fog is likely to cause some aviation problems this morning.
The best time frame for dense fog will be 10-14z, or a 4-5 hour
window as abundant Gulf of Mexico moisture continues to move in on
southeast winds. There is pretty high confidence in the fog forecast
with pretty aggressive visibility restriction including run-to-run
continuity from the HRRR model as well as the WRF-ARW, WRF-NNMB, and
NAM12 solutions. IFR category will probably continue through midday
(17z or so) especially up around HYS where it may even persist into
the afternoon hours. There should be a fairly rapid clearing once
the low stratus does start to scatter out. No wind shifts are
forecast during this TAF period with south to southeast winds
continuing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 64 92 65 87 / 0 0 10 40
GCK 63 93 64 87 / 0 0 20 40
EHA 64 91 64 86 / 0 10 20 30
LBL 64 93 65 88 / 0 0 20 40
HYS 64 93 66 89 / 0 0 20 40
P28 65 93 67 89 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
149 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE THE SKY COVER BASED ON THE LATEST HI
RES MODELS. HRRR IS BACKING OFF ON SHOWERS MAKING INTO OUR FAR
EAST LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...STILL OPTING TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A SHOWER FOR PIKE/HARLAN/LETCHER COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE...REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A COLD FRONT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED THROUGH OUR REGION LAST
EVENING. SURFACE WINDS OUT OF THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT INITIALLY
BEGAN TO CARRY IN DRIER AIR. HOWEVER...WITH THE DEMISE OF THE
BOUNDARY AND WINDS EVENTUALLY VEERING TOWARD THE NE...THE DRIER
AIR HAS HAD TROUBLE MAKING IT ALL THE WAY INTO OUR AREA. LOW
CLOUDS HAVE LINGERED ALL DAY NEAR THE BORDER WITH TN AND VA. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEARBY A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A RESURGENCE OF
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY SOME SHOWERS FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SHOULD MAINLY BE TO THE
EAST OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...BUT COULD CLIP THE EASTERN TIP OF
KY. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A BIT OF INHIBITION FOR TEMPERATURES TO
FALL OVERNIGHT AND TO RISE ON MONDAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...IN THE WEST SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY AND MORNING LOWS A BIT COOLER AND HIGHS ON MONDAY A BIT
WARMER WHEN COMPARED TO THE EAST. THE EFFECTS OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL WAVE ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD MONDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING US WITH DRY WEATHER UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES AREA WIDE.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING INTO A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE ENTIRE
CONUS. THE JET REMAINS POSITIONED NORTH ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER
WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WAVES PASSING NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LOW
BECOMING CUT OFF FROM THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW UNDER THE RIDGE WILL
MEANDER THROUGH THE FRONT RANGE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME...A CUT OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHEAST THAT MEANDERS JUST
OFF THE FL PANHANDLE WILL THEN EVENTUALLY DRIFT NORTH AGAIN AND
POTENTIALLY BRING SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY
THE END OF THE EXTENDED.
NEAR THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AND A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PROVIDING SOME WEAK FORCING FOR AFTERNOON
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AT THIS POINT WITH THE SURFACE HIGH QUITE STRONG ENOUGH
TO KEEP ANY SURFACE FORCING FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP THAT DEVELOPS WITH
THE ASSIST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EAST. IN FACT...WILL TREND
BELOW THE SUPER BLEND SOLUTION THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE CURRENT PATTERN CERTAINLY DOES SEEM TO TREND DRIER AND AS IS THE
TIME OF THE YEAR AS WELL. SO WENT BELOW SUPERBLEND VALUES AND THIS
WAS AGREED BY NEIGHBORING OFFICES AS WELL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 148 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
ACCORDING TO THE LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY...AS WELL AS
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE REGION...ONLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
REMAINS ACROSS THE CWA. IT IS ALSO SHOWING A VERY DEFINED BACK
EDGE TO THIS UPPER LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT
SLOWLY SE ACROSS KY. AS SUCH...IT SHOULD POSE VERY LITTLE IMPACT
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...NOT GOING TO RULE SOME MVFR CLOUDS
SHIFTING BACK INTO THE FAR EASTERN CWA AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING KSJS.
ANY FOG WHICH FORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO
THE VALLEYS...SO DID NOT MENTION ANY IMPACTS FOR THE TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. FOR TOMORROW...LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING
SOME DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT IN THE UPPER MVFR TO LOWER END VFR
RANGE. CLOUDS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE THICKEST OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE...WHERE SOME BKN MVFR CIGS MAY CONTINUE AT
TIMES ACROSS KSJS. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND
GENERALLY FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JMW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
521 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
A DRY SSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NE STATES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EARLY THIS MRNG DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT
SOME LLWS TO IMPACT IWD...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARPER AND
THE LLJ STRONGER AT THE BASE OF THE RADIATION INVRN. AT CMX AND
SAW...THE LLWS POTENTIAL SEEMS MORE MARGINAL...SO LEFT OUT OF THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS BY MID/LATE MRNG. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT WL
SHARPEN EVEN MORE THIS EVNG AS A COLD FNT APRCHS FM THE W...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND AS A LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TUE MORNING WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
508 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 143 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
A DRY SSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE NE STATES WL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THRU THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE PRES
GRADIENT TIGHTENS EARLY THIS MRNG DURING NOCTURNAL COOLING...EXPECT
SOME LLWS TO IMPACT IWD...WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE SHARPER AND
THE LLJ STRONGER AT THE BASE OF THE RADIATION INVRN. AT CMX AND
SAW...THE LLWS POTENTIAL SEEMS MORE MARGINAL...SO LEFT OUT OF THE
FCST FOR NOW. THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN
SOME GUSTY SW WINDS BY MID/LATE MRNG. SINCE THE PRES GRADIENT WL
SHARPEN EVEN MORE THIS EVNG AS A COLD FNT APRCHS FM THE W...EXPECT
GUSTY WINDS TO PERSIST EVEN AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 157 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE WHILE A LOW OVER
MANITOBA MONDAY MORNING SHIFTS AND DEEPENS ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE AN INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WITH WINDS MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT OF 20-25KTS.
EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING WILL DRIFT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING NORTH ACROSS ONTARIO WEDNESDAY.
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN
ADDITIONAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WED...AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SECONDARY
CONCERN TODAY IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING WERE A 115 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB PUSHING EWD INTO SRN BC AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THAT JET MAX. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS WERE NOTED IN BC AT CWXS AT 500 MB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATION SHOWED THESE HAD MOVED INTO SRN ALTA AS OF 08Z. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IN STLT IMAGERY WAS THE MOISTURE FROM
TD16 MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN AZ.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THESE WERE CURRENTLY DOWN
ACROSS KS AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE/DEVELOP THESE UP
INTO OUR AREA. HOW LONG THEY STAY AROUND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS TODAY...AND FOR NOW FELT MOST SPOTS WOULD STAY IN THE UPPER
70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S NORTH. WE WILL HAVE SOME MIXING WITH THE
SLY FLOW...BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TO ABOUT 875 MB.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD BEEN CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...BUT LOOKING AT THINGS CLOSER THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. IT MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP WITH SLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER AND MID 60S.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING TUE MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN NE...AND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE AFTN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...BUT BETTER FOCUS MAY
BE MORE IN ERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN OUR WRN COUNTIES BY LATE
WED AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST WED
EVENING...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE AND
LINCOLN TOWARD WAYNE. DETAILS ON THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
TOMORROW. SYSTEM THEN SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THU BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HAVE SOME POPS MENTIONED UNTIL FRI...
THEN IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE WHOLE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
MAY SEE A FEW HOURS OF VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE TOWARD DAWN AS
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA...BUT WINDS IN THE 7-10KT RANGE WILL
HINDER LOWER VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON THAT DECREASE DIURNALLY AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
459 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL TAKE ON
A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN WANTING TO BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MID
SUSQ VALLEY...TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SO FAR THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT...WITH LOW CLOUDS JUST HAVING BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE NJ
COAST. THE DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE WRF SHOW THE LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MID DAY OR EVEN MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY WANTS TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. THIS IDEA OF LIGHT QPF IS
BACKED UP BY THE SREF AND GEFS AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE. COOLER THAN SUNDAY
OVER THE CLOUDIER SOUTH...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
SUNNIER NORTH.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MEAGER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THE MASSIVE RIDGE FROM
OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO POKE ITS NOSE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. LOOKS FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES...SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS MAKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE GOOD PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HUGE AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE
US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY...IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER
THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...AND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...I HAVE FAIR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING SOME 4-8 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
ASTRONOMICAL FALL STARTS AT 4:21 AM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED FOR 09Z TAF PACKAGE.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO ADD A GROUP TO JST.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS OF 1 AM.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KBFD.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA ON
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES
OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST. THE INFLUX OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME OCNL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY MON AFTN.
BLEND OF 15Z SREF AND 18Z OPER MDLS SUGGEST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KJST/KAOO BY LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE AT KMDT/KLNS.
BY MON NIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KJST/KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED-THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE KBFD/KIPT.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
440 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL TAKE ON
A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN WANTING TO BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MID
SUSQ VALLEY...TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SO FAR THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT...WITH LOW CLOUDS JUST HAVING BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE NJ
COAST. THE DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE WRF SHOW THE LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MID DAY OR EVEN MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY WANTS TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. THIS IDEA OF LIGHT QPF IS
BACKED UP BY THE SREF AND GEFS AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE. COOLER THAN SUNDAY
OVER THE CLOUDIER SOUTH...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
SUNNIER NORTH.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MEAGER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THE MASSIVE RIDGE FROM
OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO POKE ITS NOSE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. LOOKS FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES...SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS MAKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE GOOD PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HUGE AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE
US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY...IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER
THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...AND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...I HAVE FAIR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING SOME 4-8 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
ASTRONOMICAL FALL STARTS AT 4:21 AM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAIN CHANGE TO 06Z TAFS WAS TO ADD A GROUP TO JST.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS SOUTHERN PA AS OF 1 AM.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF PA WILL ENSURE FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS WEAKEST ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG ARND DAWN
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY AFFECTING KBFD.
AN INCREASINGLY MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL FORM OVER SOUTHERN PA ON
MONDAY IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES
OVR NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST. THE INFLUX OF
ATLANTIC MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LVL
DISTURBANCE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LOWERING
CIGS AND SOME OCNL LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN PA BY MON AFTN.
BLEND OF 15Z SREF AND 18Z OPER MDLS SUGGEST MVFR RESTRICTIONS ARE
LIKELY AT KJST/KAOO BY LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE AT KMDT/KLNS.
BY MON NIGHT...MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KJST/KAOO.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
WED-THU...AM FOG POSSIBLE KBFD/KIPT.
FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
443 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MID
STATE AS OF 09Z(4AM CDT)...AND HRRR MODEL SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY
CONTINUING THRU 16Z(11 AM CDT)...WILL UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THESE
AREAS THRU 16Z. SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND PER DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB PER MOST RECENT LAPS SOUNDING PROFILES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM(TODAY-WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SKY COVER TIMING EROSION TODAY...TEMPS.
A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECASTS THRU WED NIGHT...WITH STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTION RESOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT.
CLOUD COVERAGE APPROACHING 08Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS TAILOR CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY FOR A DECREASING
CLOUDINESS TREND W MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON E. MOCLR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE MERGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NE U.S.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...LOW TO MID 80S...UPPER 70S
PLATEAU...BY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...
THE GFS PROGRESSION OF THE EXT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BELIEVABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD
TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE...IN
THIS EXT FCST...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS GA AND
EASTERN TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MIDDLE TN ON THE DRY SIDE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE SFC HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A
SOUTHWESTERN SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL SET UP IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOW BE
LOCATED WEST OF THE MID STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REBOUND OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SO FOR THE FCST...WILL BEGIN
TO BRING BACK LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. THE EURO IS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH THATS
NOT THE MODEL OF CHOICE...A BLEND AND A TREND TOWARD ISC GRIDS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 55 83 58 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 51 82 53 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 52 77 55 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 51 83 54 / 40 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 80 54 82 56 / 40 10 0 0
WAVERLY 81 53 83 54 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
A BURNET TO ROUND ROCK TO GIDDINGS LINE. THIS FEATURE IS WEAK AS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW ANY WIND SHIFT NORTH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE EAST OF I-35. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING EAST OF I-35 AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
LATEST FORECAST. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. WE/LL ONCE
AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS NOW DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS FEATURE AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL DATA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL GO WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A VERY
GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 94 73 96 72 95 / - - - - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 94 68 95 68 94 / - - - - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 95 70 96 69 97 / 0 - - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 93 71 94 70 93 / 0 - - - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 95 72 95 72 95 / 0 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 94 70 94 71 94 / - - - - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 94 68 96 69 95 / 0 - - 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 93 70 94 69 94 / - - - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 93 71 95 69 94 / 10 - - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 93 73 95 72 94 / 0 - - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 95 71 95 / 0 - - 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Monday...The main weather maker
for the next couple of days will be EPAC TD 16-E which is moving
across south central Baja California Sur. Southwesterly shear is
displacing the thunderstorm activity into Sonora Mexico. Ridging
is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico.
As the remnants of TD 16-E move into the Desert SW mid level
moisture and instability will increase across the Davis and
Guadalupe Mtns. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and
the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru
mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system
will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the
ridge flattening. Have slight chc pops as far east as the Western
Permian Basin tonight/Tuesday. With the moist ground from recent
rains have trended temps a little below MOS guidance.
Medium range models start to diverge mid week. The GFS is weaker
and further north with the remnant mid/upper level shortwave...
placing it in the Northern Plains by Thursday with broad ridging
centered over the Desert SW. The ECMWF keeps a stronger mid/upper
level shortwave further south with the ridge further west. The
ECMWF is significantly wetter and cooler for the CWA...especially
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos Thursday thru Saturday. Will
keep thunderstorm chances in the Mtns Wed/Thu...and the CWA dry
Friday thru next weekend under weak ridging.
Strobin
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 89 67 89 64 / 0 0 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 84 68 83 65 / 10 40 40 30
DRYDEN TX 93 71 92 71 / 10 10 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 89 67 89 68 / 10 10 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 77 61 77 59 / 20 50 30 40
HOBBS NM 84 64 80 63 / 0 20 20 10
MARFA TX 79 63 80 57 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 87 68 87 68 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 87 68 86 68 / 0 10 10 10
WINK TX 90 69 90 68 / 10 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
72/33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1152 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT KLBB BUT ALREADY SEEING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS AT KCDS. WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
DEVELOPING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AND GRADUALLY
BREAKING OUT BEFORE NOON LOCAL TIME AT ALL THREE TAF SITES.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT ALL THAT HIGH ON HOW LOW CEILINGS WILL GET SO
THERE COULD BE SOME ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTER
CEILINGS BREAK OUT LATE TOMORROW MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MONDAY.
JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
AVIATION...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH TOWARDS THE KCDS AND
TEMPO GROUP IN CURRENT TAF REFLECTS TIME OF ARRIVAL BASED ON
CURRENT SPEED AND MOTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THERE IS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT DO
NOT EXPECT TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING SHORTLY BEFORE NOON
LOCAL TIME.
JORDAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN...AND IS AIDING STREAMING A FETCH
OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EMERGENCE OF A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS IS HELPING TO VEER FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEAR ZONAL TO THE NW AND AS SUCH...IS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SWRD WITH TIME. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THANKS TO LAST
NIGHTS ADEQUATE LLJ COUPLED WITH WAA...THE ONCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE BECOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE UA
RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY EXPANDING WRD TOWARDS THE REGION IS
HELPING TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TOP DOWN...INITIALLY NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...NWRN AND NRN ZONES GIVEN CLEARING SKIES
THERE...AND WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN TO ACROSS THE SERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. SFC TROUGHING/A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...COMBINED
WITH A BIT OF INSOLATION....DETERIORATING CIN AND SB CAPE VALUES OF
1200+ J/KG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RAISES CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORMS /POSSIBLY STRONG/ FIRING UP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. IN FACT...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWED CI OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE NW OF WHEELER TX AS
WELL AS SW OF MEMPHIS TX ALONG THAT SFC BOUNDARY. THE TTU WRF
MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA WHICH APPEARS TO NOT
HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE HRRR ON THE OTHER-HAND MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP SITUATION...AS IT DEVELOPS SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE WHICH THEN PUSHES SOUTH
TO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DESPITE THE
MEAN FLOW BEING THE FROM THE W-SW. PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/A
COLD POOL COULD AID IN THIS SWRD TRAJECTORY. HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED
TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 21/06Z.
TONIGHT...THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE FA...AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WRD TOWARDS THE REGION.
NWRLY FLOW WILL THEREFORE BRIEFLY BECOME ESTABLISHED...HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE FILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM SOLUTION IN PARTICULARLY HONES IN
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK...AS SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. FURTHERMORE...IT IS
LIKELY HANGING ITS HAT ON LAST NIGHT/S AND TODAY/S PRECIP ACTIVITY
BEING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED. THOUGH LOOKING
BACK...THE BEST PRECIP /SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH/ FELL ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND PERMIAN BASIN VERSUS SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
CWA. NOT SURE IF THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE RATHER DENSE FOG AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM /BELOW 1/4 MILE/ BUT PERHAPS LIGHT FOG/HAZE AND/OR
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY...THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THE BULK OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WE WILL
HOLD ON TO SMALL THUNDER MENTION ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AREAS
TUESDAY. QUICKLY FOLLOWING WILL BE THE OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
BAJA THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP AND MAINTAINING MORE
INTENSITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD FALL OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES INITIALLY AS UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTH AND WEST
EVENTUALLY TO REFORM FURTHER WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THOUGH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT...STILL VALID FOR A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REFORMS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THIS MAY OPEN
A WINDOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOW TO DIP
BACK SOUTHWARD. OUR SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS
AND WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GIVES SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THAT FAR EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AFTER
AN INITIAL COUPLE OR THREE FAIRLY WARM DAYS THIS WEEK...THE
COMBINATION OF IMPROVED MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH LESS
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 60 88 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 60 89 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 60 87 61 85 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 92 67 94 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/93/14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
205 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 930 PM EDT SUNDAY...
THE LATE EVENING FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT ONE PRIMARY
ADJUSTMENT TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS
OFFER A SOLUTION THAT REDUCES THE EXTENT THAT PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPMENT WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA UNTIL AFTER ROUGHLY 200 AM MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THESE LATEST SOLUTIONS ALSO CONTINUE TO CONFIRM A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE THROUGH...AND AFTER...THE SAME TIME PERIOD SOUTHWEST OF
ROANOKE VIRGINIA. THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE WILL REFLECT THESE
TRENDS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT WILL REFLECT THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED TRENDS THROUGH ROUGHLY 200 AM.
AS OF 625 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS THAN ISOLATED WITHIN AN AREA AROUND MARTINSVILLE
VIRGINIA...WEST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS CENTRAL STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COLLECTION OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL
WITH A NOSE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AND
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 C. THIS AREA...AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKS OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER WERE MADE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT MONDAY...
DETERIORIATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THIS TAF VALID PERIOD. A WEDGE
OF MOIST...COOL AIR IS IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CWA
AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICKENING AND LOWERING
AND THIS GENERAL TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING
WITH CIGS/VSBYS LOWERING INTO THE MVFR RANGE...THEN TRENDING LOWER
AS LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE SATURATES THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN
EVENTUAL DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CIGS.
WEDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO TUESDAY...THUS LITTLE TO NO
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP.
WIND FLOW THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR
EAST...5 TO 10KTS THROUGH THE VALID TAF PD. SOME GUSTS OF 15-20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE VCNTY OF THE RIDGE TOPS.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGHOUT THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED/DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF
VALID PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR FOR
MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY
RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME AS
SEVERAL MODELS DO NOT SHOW THIS POSSIBILITY...RATHER KEEPING THE
SYSTEM FARTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
OUR REGION.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
915 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level
ridge of high pressure lifting northeast across the Desert
Southwest. Meanwhile, the remnants of a tropical depression are
lifting northeast into southeastern Arizona and southwestern New
Mexico. Near the surface, a weak area of low pressure is situated
across extreme southeast Colorado with an associated trough axis
extending southward into the Oklahoma panhandle.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
The global models are coming into slightly better agreement
regarding the mid-week increase in precipitation chances. The ECMWF
model is still the most developed, maintaining the most coherent mid
level potential vorticity anomaly as the subtropical low meanders
into western Kansas by Wednesday Night. The Canadian GEM is next in
line and follows closer the ECMWF solution than does the GFS. As a
result, the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF solutions offer the best
scenario for sustained precipitation chances from early to midday
Wednesday lasting into Thursday Night. There will likely be several
rounds with a few breaks within the smaller scale episodes of
precipitation. This does not look like a situation where severe
weather will be much of a risk. Deep subtropical moisture and the
lack of lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will both be negatives
as far as severe weather potential is concerned... both limiting
CAPE. As far as temperatures go, the daytime temperatures will be
trending downward from previous forecast, and do not be surprised to
see further decrease in forecast highs, especially Thursday. The
ECMWF is quite cool on Thursday keeping all of western Kansas in the
60s. We will see if the Canadian GEM and the GFS follow suit in
future runs. The subtropical disturbance will continue to wallow
aimlessly across the western Kansas until it spins itself out...as
the main polar jet will be way off to the north in Canada.
Pronounced lower tropospheric warming will be confined to areas
north of the Central High Plains it would appear, as the subtropical
entity nearby will keep temperatures in check given the absence of
any downslope momentum over western Kansas amidst a fairly deep,
moist troposphere.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Quite a poor job by the HRRR model this morning in forecasting far
too widespread and too low of visibilities across the area. The
stratus development and surface winds being slightly too strong
keeping mixing up may have had a part in dense fog not becoming
widespread. Rather than carrying FG in prevailing groups, we`ve
mentioned in in TEMPO groups only this am and will monitor for
updates. The rest of the morning will be trying to capture the
trend of dissipation of the IFR stratus as the models have not been
great.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 88 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 20
GCK 91 63 93 64 / 0 0 10 30
EHA 93 65 91 64 / 0 0 10 40
LBL 93 65 93 65 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 84 63 93 66 / 0 0 0 20
P28 85 65 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
602 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Main question is when/how many counties to go with a Dense Fog
Advisory. We will likely be issuing one over the coming hours once
we see some visibility observations drop. Abundant low level moisture
with light southeast winds and clear skies are providing the
necessary backdrop for dense fog formation, especially at the edge
of the current stratus deck, which as of 0530z extended from roughly
Meade to just south of Hays (there was a narrow break from Dodge
City to Ashland). Temperatures today will be a real challenge, and
with all this moisture in place along with a slow erosion of the
expected fog/low stratus, we will probably only see temperatures
topping out in the lower to mid 80s northeast of a Dighton to Dodge
City to Coldwater line. Farther southwest, the temperature forecast
will be unchanged with lower 90s still expected. The WRF-ARW was
followed, which did a fairly good job of depicting yesterday`s cool
bubble across portions of south-central Kansas.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
The global models are coming into slightly better agreement
regarding the mid-week increase in precipitation chances. The ECMWF
model is still the most developed, maintaining the most coherent mid
level potential vorticity anomaly as the subtropical low meanders
into western Kansas by Wednesday Night. The Canadian GEM is next in
line and follows closer the ECMWF solution than does the GFS. As a
result, the Canadian GEM and the ECMWF solutions offer the best
scenario for sustained precipitation chances from early to midday
Wednesday lasting into Thursday Night. There will likely be several
rounds with a few breaks within the smaller scale episodes of
precipitation. This does not look like a situation where severe
weather will be much of a risk. Deep subtropical moisture and the
lack of lower-mid tropospheric frontogenesis will both be negatives
as far as severe weather potential is concerned... both limiting
CAPE. As far as temperatures go, the daytime temperatures will be
trending downward from previous forecast, and do not be surprised to
see further decrease in forecast highs, especially Thursday. The
ECMWF is quite cool on Thursday keeping all of western Kansas in the
60s. We will see if the Canadian GEM and the GFS follow suit in
future runs. The subtropical disturbance will continue to wallow
aimlessly across the western Kansas until it spins itself out...as
the main polar jet will be way off to the north in Canada.
Pronounced lower tropospheric warming will be confined to areas
north of the Central High Plains it would appear, as the subtropical
entity nearby will keep temperatures in check given the absence of
any downslope momentum over western Kansas amidst a fairly deep,
moist troposphere.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
Quite a poor job by the HRRR model this morning in forecasting far
too widespread and too low of visibilities across the area. The
stratus development and surface winds being slightly too strong
keeping mixing up may have had a part in dense fog not becoming
widespread. Rather than carrying FG in prevailing groups, we`ve
mentioned in in TEMPO groups only this am and will monitor for
updates. The rest of the morning will be trying to capture the
trend of dissipation of the IFR stratus as the models have not been
great.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 85 64 91 65 / 0 0 10 20
GCK 89 63 92 64 / 0 0 20 30
EHA 93 65 90 64 / 0 0 30 40
LBL 91 65 92 65 / 0 0 10 20
HYS 81 63 92 66 / 0 0 10 20
P28 85 64 92 67 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
1055 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TO HIGH END CHANCE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A GOOD 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THE DAY BY
A FEW DEGREES ON AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 32
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW A GRADIENT FROM 100 PERCENT NORTH TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO BLEND WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING...SO TAPER TRENDS BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BY WED EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A
LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER. A
NEW SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOMENT AND WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY MAKE THIGS FEEL NICE OR COOL
TO SOME. DEEP MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK WITH IT.
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GULF BY NEXT
WEEK SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC FRONT SETS UP
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA WERE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED BUT ALL WERE STILL OUT OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA. /CAB/
MARINE...THE WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND
HAS ALREADY APPROACHED THE MS COAST AND SHOULD ENTER ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE
AND COULD RANGE FROM 10-13KTS AT TIMES BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT
QUICKLY BASICALLY LEAVING THE AREA B/T BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN
GULF AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERSIST MODERATE ERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MDLS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 65 88 65 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 86 68 90 67 / 50 10 0 0
ASD 84 68 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
MSY 85 72 88 73 / 30 20 0 0
GPT 83 69 89 71 / 60 20 0 0
PQL 84 67 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
912 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW A GRADIENT FROM 100 PERCENT NORTH TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO BLEND WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING...SO TAPER TRENDS BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BY WED EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A
LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER. A
NEW SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOMENT AND WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY MAKE THIGS FEEL NICE OR COOL
TO SOME. DEEP MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST BY
THE START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK WITH IT.
ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GULF BY NEXT
WEEK SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC FRONT SETS UP
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA WERE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED BUT ALL WERE STILL OUT OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA. /CAB/
MARINE...THE WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND
HAS ALREADY APPROACHED THE MS COAST AND SHOULD ENTER ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE
AND COULD RANGE FROM 10-13KTS AT TIMES BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT
QUICKLY BASICALLY LEAVING THE AREA B/T BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN
GULF AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERSIST MODERATE ERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MDLS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 88 65 88 65 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 88 68 90 67 / 40 10 0 0
ASD 85 68 89 70 / 30 20 0 0
MSY 85 72 88 73 / 30 20 0 0
GPT 84 69 89 71 / 30 20 0 0
PQL 83 67 89 70 / 30 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
726 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
A DRY SSW FLOW AROUND HIGH PRES MOVING INTO THE NE STATES WILL BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL
OF A FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA LATE TONIGHT BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VSBY. A THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE BUT THE PROB IS TOO LOW TOO MENTION. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND SHOULD PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD MINIMIZE LLWS POTENTIAL WITH A
LOWER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A LOW LEVEL INVERSION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND AS A LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TUE MORNING WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
713 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WED...AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SECONDARY
CONCERN TODAY IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING WERE A 115 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB PUSHING EWD INTO SRN BC AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THAT JET MAX. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS WERE NOTED IN BC AT CWXS AT 500 MB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATION SHOWED THESE HAD MOVED INTO SRN ALTA AS OF 08Z. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IN STLT IMAGERY WAS THE MOISTURE FROM
TD16 MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN AZ.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THESE WERE CURRENTLY DOWN
ACROSS KS AND SOME OF THE SHORT RANGE MODELS MOVE/DEVELOP THESE UP
INTO OUR AREA. HOW LONG THEY STAY AROUND WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
HIGHS TODAY...AND FOR NOW FELT MOST SPOTS WOULD STAY IN THE UPPER
70S...WITH SOME LOWER 80S NORTH. WE WILL HAVE SOME MIXING WITH THE
SLY FLOW...BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TO ABOUT 875 MB.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD BEEN CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...BUT LOOKING AT THINGS CLOSER THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. IT MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP WITH SLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER AND MID 60S.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING TUE MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN NE...AND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE AFTN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...BUT BETTER FOCUS MAY
BE MORE IN ERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN OUR WRN COUNTIES BY LATE
WED AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST WED
EVENING...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE AND
LINCOLN TOWARD WAYNE. DETAILS ON THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
TOMORROW. SYSTEM THEN SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THU BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HAVE SOME POPS MENTIONED UNTIL FRI...
THEN IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE WHOLE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
STRATUS THIS MORNING WITH IFR/PATCHY LIFR CIGS SHOULD AFFECT
KLNK/KOMA/KOFK THROUGH 16-19Z. AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO
12-16KTS AND GUSTY...THIS SHOULD HELP THESE LOW CLOUDS MIX OUT.
THE WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z AND COULD SEE STRATUS RE-
DEVELOP 06-12Z WITH SOME DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ZAPOTOCNY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
959 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
FCST ON TRACK. HRRR SFC TEMPS RISE TO AROUND 90 IN THE MID RRV
RIGHT AHEAD OF FRONT LATER TODAY. THIS HANDLED WELL IN FCST SO NO
CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
CHALLENGE FOR TODAYS FORECAST IS TEMPS AND TIMING OF FROPA AND
WIND IN ITS WAKE. THE BEST PREFORMING MODEL GUIDANCE HAS MAX TEMPS
TODAY IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90...AS
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS MIX DOWN 20C FROM 850MB ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. SUSTAINED WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA WILL PEAK AROUND
25KTS NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...SHORT DURATION AND RELATIVELY
SMALL AREA PRECLUDES A NEED FOR A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.
DRY FROPA PUSHES THROUGH OVERNIGHT WITH MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
SET FOR TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS 20 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY A WARM FRONT AND AN INCREASE OF MOISTURE
LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON THE NOSE OF 30 TO 40KT
LLJ. SPC HAS THIS AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE IN THE DAY 2
CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. MOST LIKELY PCPN WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWFA AS SHORT WAVE LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
EAST IN THE MODERATE TO WEAK FLOW ALOFT.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE CONTINUES TO BE VARIATION ON HOW
MODELS HANDLE THE WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE THEY HAVE COMING OVER THE
TOP OF THE RIDGE AND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THE
ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH...WHILE THE GFS IS
MUCH MORE WET. WILL KEEP THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW. THE
UPPER FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS A STRONG
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...MODELS DIVERGE ON HOW THEY HANDLE THE FIRST NORTHERN BRANCH
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE GFS SLOWER AND WETTER OVER THE WEEKEND. WITH
HIGH UNCERTAINTY...WILL KEEP BLENDED POPS GOING WITH A DRIER PERIOD
SATURDAY AND LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY. TEMPS SHOULD SEE A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
VFR WITH WINDS TURNING FROM SOUTH TO NW TODAY AS A FRONTAL PASSAGE
PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTN AND EVENING. SW TO W 15 TO 20MPH
SUSTAINED WINDS WILL GUST 20 TO 30MPH PEAKING WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/JR
AVIATION...JK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT IS
ONLY SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF TEXAS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS AND FORECAST A SLOWER RISE IN EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. HRRR TEMPERATURES WERE LOADED AND
SLIGHT MODIFIED FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE HEAT RETURNS THIS
AFTERNOON TO PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 89 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 66 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 88 67 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
652 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO
SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY AND TUESDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEK WILL BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE NEAR TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL TAKE
ON A TRAJECTORY OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN WANTING TO BRING CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN OR POSSIBLY EVEN DRIZZLE OVER SOUTHERN
SECTIONS...PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND MID
SUSQ VALLEY...TODAY AND EARLY TUESDAY UNDER THE WEAK BUT
PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT.
SO FAR THERE IS NOT MUCH GOING ON UPSTREAM TO GET EXCITED
ABOUT...WITH LOW CLOUDS JUST HAVING BEGUN TO ENCROACH ON THE NJ
COAST. THE DIFFERENT FLAVORS OF THE WRF SHOW THE LIGHT PRECIP
DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MAINLY AFTER MID DAY OR EVEN MID
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE HRRR CONSISTENTLY WANTS TO BRING LIGHT
PRECIP NORTH BEFORE THE MORNING IS OUT. THIS IDEA OF LIGHT QPF
IS BACKED UP BY THE SREF AND GEFS AS WELL.
REGARDLESS OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY...IT WILL
BE A COOLER DAY THAN SUNDAY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S REGION WIDE. COOLER THAN SUNDAY
OVER THE CLOUDIER SOUTH...BUT A BIT WARMER THAN SUNDAY OVER THE
SUNNIER NORTH.
IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NORTH TONIGHT...WHILE CLOUDY AND
DAMP CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE...BUT OVERALL
PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE MEAGER SIDE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY AND
OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AS THE LAST VESTIGES OF THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW FINALLY BEGINS TO RELAX...AND THE MASSIVE RIDGE FROM
OLD MEXICO UP INTO THE CENTRAL US BEGINS TO POKE ITS NOSE INTO THE
LOCAL AREA. LOOKS FOR BRIGHTENING SKIES...SLOWER TO IMPROVE OVER
THE SOUTH...WITH HIGHS MAKING BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER
70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE THE BENEFICIARIES OF
THE GOOD PART OF A DEVELOPING REX BLOCK.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A HUGE AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL UPPER HEIGHTS EXTENDING FROM MEXICO UP TO SOUTHERN CANADA
AND EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN US. THE TROUGH THAT WILL GIVE
US A BIT OF INCLEMENT WEATHER EARLY...IS MADE TO CLOSE OFF UNDER
THE RIDGE LEADING TO A NEARLY CLASSIC LOOKING REX BLOCK UPPER
PATTERN BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE FIRST DAY OF FALL...AND LASTING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...I HAVE FAIR SKIES AND DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. HIGHS WILL BE AVERAGING SOME 4-8 DEG ABOVE
NORMAL.
ASTRONOMICAL FALL STARTS AT 4:21 AM EDT ON SEPTEMBER 23.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. REALLY BRIGHT
ORANGE SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY AND VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SOME SHOWERS...MORE LIGHT PATCHY RAIN AND DRIZZLE...WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF CENTRAL PA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
AT JST AND PERHAPS AT AOO LATER TODAY.
MOST OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS...AS HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST DEWPOINTS NOT REAL HIGH TO
SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG FORMATION.
OUTLOOK...
TUE-FRI...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
539 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...BUT SHOULD NOT EFFECT THE TAF AREAS. OTW...THE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID STATE AND THEN INTENSIFY TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DECREASE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SKC SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 00Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MID
STATE AS OF 09Z(4AM CDT)...AND HRRR MODEL SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY
CONTINUING THRU 16Z(11 AM CDT)...WILL UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THESE
AREAS THRU 16Z. SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND PER DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB PER MOST RECENT LAPS SOUNDING PROFILES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM(TODAY-WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SKY COVER TIMING EROSION TODAY...TEMPS.
A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECASTS THRU WED NIGHT...WITH STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTION RESOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT.
CLOUD COVERAGE APPROACHING 08Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS TAILOR CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY FOR A DECREASING
CLOUDINESS TREND W MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON E. MOCLR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE MERGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NE U.S.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...LOW TO MID 80S...UPPER 70S
PLATEAU...BY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...
THE GFS PROGRESSION OF THE EXT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BELIEVABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD
TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE...IN
THIS EXT FCST...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS GA AND
EASTERN TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MIDDLE TN ON THE DRY SIDE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE SFC HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A
SOUTHWESTERN SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL SET UP IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOW BE
LOCATED WEST OF THE MID STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REBOUND OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SO FOR THE FCST...WILL BEGIN
TO BRING BACK LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. THE EURO IS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH THATS
NOT THE MODEL OF CHOICE...A BLEND AND A TREND TOWARD ISC GRIDS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 81 55 83 58 / 10 10 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 80 51 82 53 / 10 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 74 52 77 55 / 10 10 0 0
COLUMBIA 81 51 83 54 / 40 10 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 80 54 82 56 / 40 10 0 0
WAVERLY 81 53 83 54 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
645 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
AS TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT WE HAVE SEEN
AREAS OF LIGHT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING.
KLBB AND KPVW WILL LIKELY SEE A BRIEF BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS...
THOUGH KCDS COULD FALL TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR FOR A SHORT WHILE. THE
TERMINALS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WITH GOOD FLYING
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AND GENERALLY OF A SOUTHERLY PERSUASION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT
HAS INVADED THE SOUTH PLAINS REGION BEHIND YESTERDAY/S DISTURBANCE.
THIS HAS BROUGHT A FIRM END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BRIEFLY TRAVERSES WEST TEXAS. HOWEVER...SHALLOW
MOISTURE DOES REMAIN AND WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINT /DEPRESSIONS OF 1 TO 3 DEGREES ARE COMMON AT 08Z/ WE COULD
SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE AND THE VEERING /ALBEIT WEAK/ WIND
COULD MITIGATE THE FOG POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT...THOUGH WE HAVE INCLUDED
A PATCHY MENTION FOR MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH MID-MORNING. ANY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX/SCATTER OUT WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND
SOUTHERLY BREEZES PROPELLING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGHS
ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S.
TONIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER
SPILL IN FROM THE WEST AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SURGES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE DIRECTED TO OUR
WEST WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS EDGE TOWARD THE TX/NM LINE BY EARLY
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE A RATHER UNEVENTFUL AND MILD FALL
NIGHT WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
LONG TERM...
A UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM WELL WEST OF
THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE REMNANT MOISTURE AND ENERGY FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL DEPRESSION WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYERS IN OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEK. AS THE REMNANT WAVE MOVES NORTHEAST...SUB-
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS ON
TUESDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR COUNTIES NEAREST TO THE STATE LINE. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY REMAIN TO OUR WEST AND
NORTHWEST...BUT IT/S NOT OUT THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE SOME
TRAINING SHOWERS BRUSH PARMER COUNTY. THIS WAVE SHOULD HAVE
PROGRESSED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY....BUT THE
FOLLOWING WAVE SHOULD THEN BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL
KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP GOING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. STARTING THURSDAY...GUIDANCE IS STILL
STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE STORM SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE ONCE IT MOVES
EAST OF THE ROCKIES. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST SOME DEGREE OF
TROUGHING FOR WEST TEXAS...BUT DIFFER ON THE DETAILS. THE ECMWF
IS THE COOLER AND WETTER SOLUTION AS THE TROUGH ACTUALLY CLOSES
OFF AT 500 MB THEN DRIFTS SOUTH AND WEAKENS OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...THE ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY WITH NORTH TO EAST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE
FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT ALSO SHOWS SOME SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING INTO
THE AREA. WITH THIS IN MIND...THE BLENDED GUIDANCE DOES PROVIDE
POPS FOR ROUGHLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY NEAR SEASONAL NORMS
THROUGH THE WEEK...NAMELY 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS AND LOW 90S IN
THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS. THE ECMWF PROJECTION WOULD SUPPORT COOLER
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK AND WE/LL BE FOLLOWING THE TRENDS IN THE
MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 88 62 80 61 / 0 0 20 20
TULIA 88 63 85 63 / 0 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 88 62 86 63 / 0 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 89 63 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
LUBBOCK 91 65 86 64 / 0 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 87 63 81 62 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 89 64 83 63 / 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 92 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 92 66 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 93 69 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/33/23
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
629 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
Western TAF sites have cleared out and radiated down to the dewpt
allowing shallow fog to develop with LIFR vsbys and cigs. Do not
expect this fog to last too long... also some patchy stratus
across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos hiding under the higher
clouds. Have included evening storms at CNM.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Monday...The main weather maker
for the next couple of days will be EPAC TD 16-E which is moving
across south central Baja California Sur. Southwesterly shear is
displacing the thunderstorm activity into Sonora Mexico. Ridging
is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico.
As the remnants of TD 16-E move into the Desert SW mid level
moisture and instability will increase across the Davis and
Guadalupe Mtns. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and
the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru
mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system
will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the
ridge flattening. Have slight chc pops as far east as the Western
Permian Basin tonight/Tuesday. With the moist ground from recent
rains have trended temps a little below MOS guidance.
Medium range models start to diverge mid week. The GFS is weaker
and further north with the remnant mid/upper level shortwave...
placing it in the Northern Plains by Thursday with broad ridging
centered over the Desert SW. The ECMWF keeps a stronger mid/upper
level shortwave further south with the ridge further west. The
ECMWF is significantly wetter and cooler for the CWA...especially
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos Thursday thru Saturday. Will
keep thunderstorm chances in the Mtns Wed/Thu...and the CWA dry
Friday thru next weekend under weak ridging.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN DIEGO CA
144 PM PDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID TODAY...WITH COOLER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DRY AND WARM FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST. SLIGHTLY COOLER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THE WEST COAST. NIGHT AND MORNING MARINE LAYER CLOUDS POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE VALLEYS AT TIMES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...
AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING UPPER LOW
ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO PRODUCING WITH WARMING CLOUD
TOPS AND LESS LIGHTNING THAN THIS MORNING. SLOW MOVING BANDS OF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN BAJA AND IMPERIAL
COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS HAVE MOSTLY STAYED TO THE
SOUTH OF THE US/MEXICO BORDER...WITH JUST SOME SPRINKLES MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY. LATEST RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND MAY NOT
MAKE IT INTO SAN DIEGO COUNTY AFTERALL...AND SO SPRINKLES MAY BE ALL
THAT MOST OF THE COUNTY WILL SEE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THIS AFTERNOON FOR SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND AREAS
FARTHER NORTH BEING FROM MOUNTAIN BASED CONVECTION. THE LATEST SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PLENTY OF SURFACE BASED CAPE OVER THE
REGION...WITH 1500 J/KG OF CAPE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
HOWEVER...SURFACE BASED CONVECTION HAS YET TO DEVELOP...LIKELY DUE
TO THE 150 TO 250 J/KG OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...OR CIN...WHICH THE
SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS. NEVERTHELESS...THE HRRR STILL TRIES TO SHOW
SOME THUNDERSTORMS GOING OFF OVER THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY
MOUNTAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE INLAND THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA...WITH THE MODELS TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE CORE OF
THE LOW AS IT MOVES OVER EXTREME NORTHERN BAJA. WITH THE CORE OF THE
LOW A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH...THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS CONFIDENCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN AREAS SUCH AS ORANGE
COUNTY...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE INLAND EMPIRE. MODELS SHOW
LESS MOISTURE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION. IN ADDITION...THE NAM12 SHOWS SOME VORTICITY LOBES
BEING DRAWN IN AROUND THE LOW AND BACK INTO THE RIVERSIDE AND SAN
DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS...AND WESTERN SAN DIEGO
COUNTY...WHICH COULD INDUCE THUNDERSTORM AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
THOSE AREAS DURING THE LATE NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING PERIOD.
THE 12Z LOCAL WRF AND 12Z CANSAC WRF HAVE BOTH PICKED UP ON THIS
POSSIBILITY.
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED DUE TO THE DECREASING
FAVORABILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT THIS COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN
INDICATES. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...SAN DIEGO COUNTY AND THE
RIVERSIDE AND SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND LOWER DESERTS LOOK TO
RECEIVE THE MOST AMOUNT OF RAINFALL...WITH LESS FOR AREAS NORTH. SEE
THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS ON THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY IS SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SO FAR
THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AS MOST LOCATIONS ARE SHOWING
TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 10-20 DEGREES LOWER. THIS COOLING IS DUE TO
INCREASING MOISTURE...CLOUDS AND TRENDING ONSHORE FLOW. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WHEN DAY-TIME HIGHS COULD FALL TO NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL FOR INLAND AREAS...WHILE REMAINING A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL AT THE COAST WITH THE CONTINUED WARM WATERS.
ONE LAST INTERESTING TIDBIT ABOUT THE WEATHER TODAY ARE THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
COASTAL LAND AREAS...WHICH MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW FAR TO THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE COAST TOMORROW
INDICATED BY THE 12Z WRF.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BENIGN DRY WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPS...WITH RIDGING BUILDING AT 500 MB TO BRING A WARMING TREND.
DAY-TIME HIGHS COULD REACH 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE RIDGE STARTS TO WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD BRING
SLOW COOLING TO THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...
212030Z...TROPICAL LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE REGION
WITH SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND AHEAD OF A SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW
REGION THAT IS 200 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAN. THIS PRODUCED SCATTERED
STRATOCU OVER LAND WITH A SOLID MID LEVEL DECK. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A WAVE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHILE
TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF THE MEXICO BORDER. THIS WILL ALSO DRAW IN
ENERGY FROM THE EAST AND OUT OF ARIZONA...RESULTING IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH FROM PSP TO SAN.
THE BEST WINDOW FOR THIS ACTIVITY IS 09 TO 18Z TUESDAY. THE WAVE IS
EAST OF SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL DRAW
SHOWERS WITH IT BUT LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR PSP TO TRM
INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
130 PM...ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF WEAKENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE PACIFIC ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE
RESULTED IN GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OVER WATERS. THE ENHANCED SOUTHERLY
WIND CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY MORNING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES EAST AND ENTERS THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY OVER THE WATERS AFTER 9
PM...AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS WITH SHOWERS. THE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT CARRIES THE
DETAILS...LAXMWSSGX. NO ADDITIONAL MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
130 PM...THE THREAT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXISTS LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO
WHICH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOES INTO EFFECT CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE MOUNTAINS...LOWER DESERTS AND VALLEYS. WITH HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. RAINFALL RATES COULD EXCEED 1 INCH PER
HOUR...AND RECENT BURN SCARS COULD EXPERIENCE DEBRIS FLOWS.
&&
.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND/OR
EVENING FOR SAN DIEGO...RIVERSIDE AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES.
&&
.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COACHELLA VALLEY-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND
EMPIRE-SAN DIEGO COUNTY DESERTS-SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN GORGONIO PASS NEAR BANNING.
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...HARRISON
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...TARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
423 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL ALLOW
FOR A DRY SEASONABLE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY DUE TO A DISTURBANCE WELL TO THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL INTO THE MUCH OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 423 PM EDT...SUNSHINE WAS MIXED WITH HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAD REACHED THE LOWER 70S IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY WELL SOUTH OF ALBANY...ONLY MID 60S CAPITAL REGION...60-65
MOST OTHER PLACES. A LIGHT NORTH WIND AVERAGE 5-10 MPH.
SHOWERS IN PENNSYLVANIA WHERE ATTEMPTING TO MOVE NORTH INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL NY STATE...BUT THUS FAR...HAS ENCOUNTERED VERY DRY
AIR. THE LATEST HRRR DOES BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR
REGION THIS EVENING (REALLY SPRINKLES) BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP IT DRY
ALL NIGHT...BUT SOME DEGREE OF CLOUD COVERAGE.
THE SHOWERS WERE THE RESULT OF DEFORMATION BETWEEN A DISTURBANCE WELL TO
OUR SOUTH AND AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE TO OUR NORTH. THE SOUTHERN
FEATURE LOOKS TO STAY WELL SOUTH AND THE SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ON BY TO OUR
EAST LATER TUESDAY.
THE CLOUDS LOOK TO HOLD TEMPERATURES UP A BIT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
THEREFORE...NO FROST IS EXPECTED ANYWHERE NOR ANY FOG. LOOK FOR LOWS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHERN HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES...LOWER TO MID 40S
MOST OTHER PLACES...EXCEPT UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE HUDSON VALLEY.
A NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND THIS EVENING 5-10 MPH WILL BECOME
LIGHT (UNDER 5 MPH) AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY WILL START WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT AS AN
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES BY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND PROVIDE DRY TRANQUIL
WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM.
LOOK FOR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS 70-75 VALLEYS
...65-70 HIGHER TERRAIN.
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...TEMPERATURES WILL DIP BACK
DOWN INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHWEST TO MID 40S CAPITAL REGION SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY FOG.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL SEE LOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TUESDAY NIGHT...
GENERALLY LOWER 40S TO LOWER 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF A DRY PERIOD FROM START TO FINISH...
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT BREAKING DOWN THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH A LARGE AREA BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND FROM NORTHERN
QUEBEC TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE START OF THE WORK WEEK IT
WILL STRETCH FROM THE MIDWEST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WITH
NO SYSTEMS NEARBY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR...THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS
BEING FRIDAY IN THE VICINITY OF THE DIEING COLD FRONT...AND AGAIN
SUNDAY NIGHT TOWARD AREAS OF HIGHER MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION.
WITH SATURDAY BEING THE ONLY EXCEPTION...DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL
AVERAGE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...BUT PERHAPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTING INTO NIGHT SHOULD MITIGATE THE FORMATION
OF FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE REGION AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. WHILE ALOFT A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY APPROACHES AND MOVES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THIS
FEATURE WILL BRING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE REGION...LOOKING
AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD..12Z/TUESDAY.
A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY THE WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TO CALM IN THE EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-SATURDAY: ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
...NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
IN THE PAST 8 DAYS. THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX (KBDI)
WAS OVER 300 ACROSS THE MID HUDSON VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST CONNECTICUT...
LOWER OVER THE REMAINDER NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
IT LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL SEASONABLE. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF TONIGHT...
A FULL RECOVERY IS EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF DEW. TONIGHT...WE WILL
HAVE A PARTIAL RECOVERY DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES
UP A LITTLE...A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DEWPOINTS. PARTIAL SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED TOMORROW...MORE SUNSHINE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON RH VALUES WILL FALL TO THE MODERATE LEVELS (35-55 PERCENT)
EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL AFTERNOONS. THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
DURING THE DAY (AROUND 5 MPH)...LIGHT TO CALM AT NIGHT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEK.
THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS MIGHT BE A FEW SPRINKLES SOUTH TONIGHT AND
PERHAPS AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
AT ALL OVER THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
STREAMFLOW LEVELS OVER EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND COMPARED TO HISTORICAL NORMALS ARE GENERALLY NEAR
AVERAGE IN MOST LOCATIONS...WITH A FEW SPOTS COMING IN AT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS. WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
WEEK...RIVER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL. A FEW MORE SPOTS MAY BE COMING IN BELOW NORMAL BY
THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/HWJIV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
345 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY.
ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGE AXIS LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH
A WEAK 700-500 HPA SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH IN ITS WAKE. COULD
SEE ENOUGH FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER MAINLY FAR W ZONES THIS EVENING...SO HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS OVER ORANGE AND WESTERN PASSAIC COUNTY. SOME SIGNS IN
LATEST HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS THAT THIS MIGHT NEED TO BE NUDGED A
TAD FARTHER EAST...BUT THIS IS A NEW DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL HOLD
OFF ON THAT FOR NOW.
IT WILL BE CLOUDY TONIGHT...WITH MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO
BUILD IN FROM THE SW THROUGHOUT HE NIGHT...AND LOW CLOUDS
BUILDING IN FROM SE TO NW FROM OFFSHORE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOR LOWS TONIGHT USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT NE-ENE FLOW OF 15-20KT CREATING A STRONG LONGSHORE
CURRENT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR
EASTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT...AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC BEACHES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A WEAK 700-500 HPA NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT.
WHILE A SPRINKLE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH...GIVEN VERY DRY LOW LEVELS...DO NOT HAVE
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT AT BEST
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY CONDITIONS FOR MOST...IF NOT ALL THE DAY. THE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND
OF MIXING DOWN FROM 900 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES AND A BLEND OF MAV/ECS/MET GUIDANCE.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING TUESDAY NIGHT FROM W TO E AS THE DEEP LAYERED
RIDGE BUILDS IN. FOR LOWS A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE AND NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES. LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
THE PERSISTENT ENE-NE FLOW WILL CAUSE THE LONGSHORE CURRENT TO
PERSIST AND STRENGTHEN FARTHER TO THE WEST. AS A RESULT...HAVE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FORECAST FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES FROM
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL
WEAKEN...WHILE A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST...AND AS THE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED...WITH A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...AND A
DOWNSTREAM DIGGING TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
OVER THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL ALSO SERVE TO SUPPRESS AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND AN ASSOCIATED OFFSHORE WEAK LOW OR
INVERTED TROUGH...THIS PER THE 00Z/12Z ECMWF...00Z ECMWF ENSMEAN
AND ALSO THE 12Z GEFS MEAN...AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DIGGING TROUGH WILL
APPROACH ON THU...THEN WASH OUT OVER THE AREA ON FRI. AFTER A STRONG
DIGGING SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PASSES
TO THE NE FRI NIGHT...STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH
FROM NEAR HUDSON BAY AND BECOME DOMINANT...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...THE FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY DRY WEATHER ON
MON IS UNCERTAIN,,,ESPECIALLY FOR NYC METRO AND COASTAL
SECTIONS...AS BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GEFS MEAN START TO BRING THE
LOW OR INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTH UP THE COAST.
TEMPS WILL RUN SEVERAL DEG ABOVE AVG WED-FRI...MAINLY 75-80...THEN
WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO AVG THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
VFR INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS NE-ENE AROUND 10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
15-19KT...DIMINISHING BY A FEW KTS THIS EVENING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: END TIME OF FREQUENT GUSTS COULD BE OFF BY 1-2
HOURS.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.TUE-FRI...VFR WITH CONTINUED NE-ENE FLOW. GUSTS TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
EACH DAY.
&&
.MARINE...
PERSISTENT NE-ENE FLOW WILL KEEP SEAS ABOVE SCA LEVELS THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS TO 25 KT EXPECTED ON THE COASTAL OCEAN
WATERS INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. COULD ALSO SEE SOME OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 25 KT ON THE NON-OCEAN WATERS TONIGHT...WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
ON ALL WATERS DURING TUESDAY NIGHT...AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BRIEFLY RELAXES.
SCA CONDITIONS IN THE FORM OF HAZARDOUS SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE ON
THE OCEAN INTO WED. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS...A RELATIVE
RESPITE IN SCA CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR WED NIGHT...AND MAY LAST
INTO FRI EVENING...THOUGH COULD BE INTERRUPTED AT TIMES BY SETS OF
HIGHER SWELLS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY TO
RETURN ON THE OCEAN LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS.
CURRENTLY KBDI VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 300 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF
THE REGION...AND OVER 400 ALONG THE COAST. NE WINDS GUSTING 15-20 MPH
WITH RH VALUES IN THE MID 40S TUESDAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR...THERE
COULD BE SOME RISK OF FIRE SPREAD...IF ANY WERE TO BE IGNITED.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY TONIGHT...THEN DRY INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A PERSISTENT E TO W SWEEP OF 3 TO 6 FT BREAKERS AND ELEVATED
TIDES WILL RESULT IN SOME MINOR BEACH EROSION THIS WEEK ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
A LOW THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING
EXISTS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH GRADUALLY RISING
ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES AND POTENTIAL FOR STRENGTHENING OF EASTERLY
FLOW.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-178-179.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NYZ081.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-
355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MALOIT/GOODMAN
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...MALOIT
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...MALOIT/GOODMAN
FIRE WEATHER...MALOIT
HYDROLOGY...MALOIT/GOODMAN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MALOIT/GOODMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME OF THEM COULD IMPACT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. THEY CAN BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS. THE SHORT
RANGE HRRR MODEL INDICATED THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENTLY HAVE MOST CONVECTION
FORECAST TO WIND DOWN AROUND O1Z, HOWEVER, THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT
IT COULD PERSIST SOMEWHAT LONGER INTO THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1007 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WITH THIS UPDATE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO THE
NEAR TERM ELEMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO REFLECT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FOG IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING, BESIDES MINOR TWEAKS TO OTHER
ELEMENTS OF THE FORECAST. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE
AREA THIS MORNING, AND SHOULD PASS ACROSS THE CWA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS, BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE INLAND.
BUT, ISOLATED STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO AFFECT THE COASTAL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, KEPT THE VCTS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN FROM SUNDAY
AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WITH
ITS TRAILING TROUGH LINGERING ACROSS FAR SOUTH FL/FL STRAITS THIS
MORNING. NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING DRIER AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH COUNTY. WITH THE DRY MID LEVEL AND WEAK
CAP...EXPECT ANOTHER SLOW START TO ACTIVITY. WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
TREND INLAND INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST RAIN
CHANCES...AROUND 50%...SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR ALLEY OVER THE EVERGLADES
TOWARDS SUNSET.
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S AROUND THE LAKE AND
LOW 70S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION WHICH IS SLIGHTLY...BUT LIKELY
NOTICEABLY...LOWER THAN THE USUAL MID-UPPER 70S FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR.
TUESDAY...MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS SWINGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE FL PENINSULA REMAINS IN LIGHT LOW
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN THE LARGE HIGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN US AND LINGERING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. A DRIER AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND MID LEVELS AND WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE
LOW AND LATE IN THE DAY WITH THE SEA BREEZE. WITH NORTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE STEERING FLOW...BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IN MIAMI-DADE AND
MAINLAND MONROE. AS WITH MONDAY...SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A SUBTLE RELIEF TO THE USUAL S FLORIDA HUMIDITY.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST MID TO
LATE WEEK AS GLOBAL MODELS STILL SHOW THE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE
EASTERN US CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST. STILL RUN TO RUN AND
MODEL TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE CUT OFF LOW WITH
THE GFS BACK ON BOARD WITH A MORE ROBUST RETROGRADING CUT OFF LOW
THOUGH THE ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED WEAKER WITH THE FEATURE.
TRENDS FROM BOTH MODELS STILL SUGGEST A WETTER AND STORMIER PATTERN
IN PLACE BY LATE WEEK WITH LOWER SURFACE PRESSURES AND MID LEVEL
HEIGHTS AS WELL A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW USHERING IN SOME BETTER MID
LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOW MUCH WE GET CONTINUES TO VARY...BUT
WILL KEEP INCREASING POP TREND THURS-SAT.
MARINE...NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10KTS THROUGH MID WEEK
BECOMING EAST-SOUTHEAST 5-10KTS LATE WEEK. GULF COAST BREEZE
EXPECTED MOST DAYS...WHICH WILL BRING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.
SEAS GENERALLY 2FT OR LESS THROUGH WED...WITH UP TO 4FT IN THE GULF
STREAM AT TIMES WITH THE NORTHEAST FETCH. SEAS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN
THE ATLANTIC MID TO LATE WEEK WITH INCOMING SWELL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 74 89 75 88 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 88 76 88 / 20 30 20 30
MIAMI 77 89 76 89 / 20 30 20 30
NAPLES 75 90 72 88 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW ORLEANS LA
116 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA COULD STILL REDEVELOP AND
POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IMPACT AN AIRPORT OR TWO THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION IN THE TAFS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AND NO
SIGNIFICANT VSBY REDUCTIONS ANTICIPATED. 22/TD
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THE OVERCAST SKIES WILL LINGER OVER
THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE CONTINUED
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
CWA TO HIGH END CHANCE TO REFLECT THIS RISK. TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE COOLER THAN EXPECTED GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...WITH
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA A GOOD 5
DEGREES COOLER THAN EXPECTED. WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FOR THE DAY BY
A FEW DEGREES ON AVERAGE. HIGHS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. 32
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED RAIN CHANCES TO SHOW A GRADIENT FROM 100 PERCENT NORTH TO
25 TO 30 PERCENT SOUTH TO BLEND WITH CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
LATEST HRRR RUNS THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR BEHIND COLD FRONT WILL
START TO DIMINISH RAIN COVERAGE IN THE FAR NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE
THIS MORNING...SO TAPER TRENDS BACK TO THE ORIGINAL MORNING
FORECAST. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME. 22/TD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM...
SHOWERS AND A FEW TS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AS AN 850MB TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE AIR MASS DRIES VIA DP TEMPS FALLING BACK INTO THE
50S. BUT THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE EAST BY WED EVENING. THE DEEP MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE A
LOT OF HEADWAY THOUGH AND GETS HELD NEAR THE LOWER PEARL RIVER. A
NEW SURGE OF DRY AIR MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA TO KEEP THE DEEPER
MOISTURE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY EVENING.
LONG TERM...
THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR THE MOMENT AND WITH DP TEMPS BACK
INTO THE MID 50S...AMBIENT TEMPS MAY MAKE THINGS FEEL NICE OR
COOL TO SOME. DEEP MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN WILL MOVE IN FROM THE EAST
BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK WITH
IT. ANOTHER DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING INTO THE GULF BY
NEXT WEEK SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE EXACTLY WHERE THE SFC FRONT SETS
UP OVER THE DEEP SOUTH.
AVIATION...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO BEFORE
CLEARING THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING DIFFUSE. MAINLY MID AND
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION IN ADVANCE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW POST FRONTAL SHRA WERE ALSO BEING
OBSERVED BUT ALL WERE STILL OUT OF THE CWA. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CANT RULE OUT TEMPO MVFR DUE TO SHRA. /CAB/
MARINE...THE WEAK FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND
HAS ALREADY APPROACHED THE MS COAST AND SHOULD ENTER ALL OF THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO OFFSHORE
AND COULD RANGE FROM 10-13KTS AT TIMES BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY REAL
SIGNIFICANT CAA NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS. THE FRONT WILL WASHOUT
QUICKLY BASICALLY LEAVING THE AREA B/T BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE SRN
GULF AND BROAD HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING MUCH OF THE ERN CONUS. THIS
WILL LEAD TO PERSIST MODERATE ERLY WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEAK.
MDLS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPING NEAR THE YUCATAN LATE NEXT WEEKEND...SO WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO WATCH THIS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT. /CAB/
&&
DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.
DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 85 65 88 65 / 100 10 0 0
BTR 86 68 90 67 / 50 10 0 0
ASD 84 68 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
MSY 85 72 88 73 / 30 20 0 0
GPT 83 69 89 71 / 60 20 0 0
PQL 84 67 89 70 / 60 20 0 0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 507 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE PAC NW INTO NRN ONTARIO AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. A VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH SRN ALBERTA. AT
THE SFC...INCREASING SRLY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY
INTO THE WRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS FROM LOW PRES OVER SRN SASK/MANITOBA. THE
WAA PATTERN SUPPORTED ONLY PATCHY MID CLOUDS FROM WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
THROUGH WI.
TODAY...ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING
INTO THE 10C-12C RANGE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL IN DOWNSLOPE FLOW
LOCATIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. FCST WINDS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER PORTION OF THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORT WIND GUSTS INTO THE 20-25
MPH RANGE WITH SOME 25-30 MPH GUSTS OVER THE WEST.
TONIGHT...AS THE VIGOROUS SHRTWV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED DEEP SFC LOW
LIFTS FROM NRN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY A COLD FRONT WILL BE DRAGGED
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE...ONLY
MODEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS THE STRONGEST
MID LEVEL FORCING REMAINING WELL TO THE N OVER NRN ONTARIO (SLIGHT
HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST OVER THE NRN LAKES TONIGHT)...WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION ONLY LOWER END CHANCE POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER NORTHWEST HALF
LATE TONIGHT. MUCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE WILL
SUPPORT TSRA CHANCES BUT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE POTENTIAL OF ANY
STRONGER STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
LIMITED CHANGES IN THE OVERALL LONG TERM FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS
AGO...AS THE UPPER JET TRACKS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE LATER PART OF THIS WEEK BEFORE AMPLIFYING OVER
CENTRAL CANADA FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THAT LOCATION OF THE JET WILL KEEP
THE NORMAL (MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK) TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (THIS
WEEKEND) IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THERE ARE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE FIRST TIED TO THE COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF LIMITED
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT SHOULD ONLY LEAD TO ISOLATED
SHOWERS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.P. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THAT AREA ON TUESDAY. DID CONTINUE TO MENTION A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER DUE TO THE THIN REGION OF WEAK INSTABILITY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AND SHOULD LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE WESTERN U.P. TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL COME FROM BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THAT WILL LIFT NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN CWA ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THIS AS
EXISTING MOISTURE IN THE PLAINS COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E CURRENTLY NEAR THE BAJA PENINSULA.
THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE MODELS KEEPS MUCH OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
TROPICAL REMNANTS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE TIED TO THAT INITIAL SURGE OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ON WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THAT SURGE WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN SLIDE EAST
INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE WESTERN U.P. THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THAT AREA AND THEN SLOWLY
DIMINISH THEM AS THE FORCING WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST
OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOWING PWAT VALUES
RISING TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND LEADS TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE WESTERN U.P WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. A 1036MB HIGH
MOVING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY WILL EXTEND A RIDGE SOUTH
TOWARDS LAKE SUPERIOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THAT WILL SHIFT
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTHEAST AND START TO BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT THE DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
GREATER INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER JAMES BAY. THAT SHOULD REALLY DIMINISH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HEADING INTO FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE.
AT THIS POINT...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OVER CENTRAL CANADA AND THE SURFACE HIGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE NEW ENGLAND STATES. THIS WILL KEEP THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND WITH MIXING TO 875MB
TEMPS AROUND 10C ON SATURDAY WOULD SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S
AND THEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH A LITTLE BETTER
MIXING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
ARRIVAL OF A FRONT LATE TONIGHT MAY PRODUCE SCT SHRA BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO IMPACT VSBY AND HAVE A MENTION OF
VCSH AT IWD AND CMX TO COVER THIS. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST TONIGHT WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE AREA. THIS
SHOULD MINIMIZE LLWS POTENTIAL WITH A LOWER CHANCE OF DEVELOPING A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION EXCEPT AT SAW WHERE PUT IN LLWS. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD UNTIL TUE MORNING WHEN MVFR CIGS
MOVE ACROSS WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ALL SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY EXIT ACROSS THE
NEW ENGLAND AS A LOW OVER MANITOBA DEEPENS AND LIFTS NE THROUGH
HUDSON BAY TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S WINDS IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOW TO DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. BEHIND THE LOW...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA TUE MORNING WILL BUILD OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
AFTERNOON...BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO WED. A RIDGE WILL
REMAIN THROUGH FRIDAY...BEING REINFORCED BY AN ADDITIONAL AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING ACROSS NRN ONTARIO THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1250 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD ARE PCPN CHANCES...
ESPECIALLY FOR WED...AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SECONDARY
CONCERN TODAY IS COVERAGE OF LOW CLOUDS TODAY.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING WERE A 115 KT
JET MAX AT 300 MB PUSHING EWD INTO SRN BC AND A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THAT JET MAX. 12 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS OF UP TO 80 METERS WERE NOTED IN BC AT CWXS AT 500 MB.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP IN COMBINATION WITH MOST RECENT RUC MODEL
INITIALIZATION SHOWED THESE HAD MOVED INTO SRN ALTA AS OF 08Z. THE
OTHER FEATURE OF CONCERN IN STLT IMAGERY WAS THE MOISTURE FROM
TD16 MOVING NWD TOWARD SRN AZ.
TODAY...LOW CLOUDS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC. THESE WERE CURRENTLY
LODGED ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THEY ARE FINALLY STARTING
TO LIFT BUT FEEL THEY WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON HIGHS TODAY AND HOVE
TWEAKED AREAS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER DOWN A FEW DEGREES. WE
WILL HAVE SOME MIXING WITH THE SLY FLOW...BUT THAT MAY ONLY BE TO
ABOUT 875 MB.
LOW CLOUDS MAY MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. WE HAVE HAD BEEN CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS...BUT LOOKING AT THINGS CLOSER THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED. IT MAY END UP BEING DRIZZLE IF
ANYTHING. FOR NOW...BACKED OFF TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
LOWS SHOULD BE HELD UP WITH SLY FLOW AND AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. MOS GUIDANCE SEEMS REASONABLE WITH LOWER AND MID 60S.
THE 00Z NAM SHOWED SOME TSTMS DEVELOPING TUE MORNING OVER PARTS
OF ERN NE...AND THAT SCENARIO SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH DECENT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE AFTN.
KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF TSTMS FOR TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING...
AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER 1.50 INCHES...BUT BETTER FOCUS MAY
BE MORE IN ERN SD/NWRN IA/SWRN MN. THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE INCREASING IN OUR WRN COUNTIES BY LATE
WED AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
HEAVY RAIN THREAT WITH STRONG STORMS MAY LINGER INTO AT LEAST WED
EVENING...WITH CHANCES HIGHEST WEST OF A LINE FROM BEATRICE AND
LINCOLN TOWARD WAYNE. DETAILS ON THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE CLEAR BY
TOMORROW. SYSTEM THEN SOMEWHAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
THU BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING. HAVE SOME POPS MENTIONED UNTIL FRI...
THEN IT LOOKS MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL THE WHOLE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
YESTERDAY THOUGH THE MODELS HINTED AT IT...I DID NOT GO STRONG
ENOUGH WITH THE LIFR CONDITIONS THAT DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS LOOK EVEN MORE FAVORABLE TONIGHT SO ALL THREE
TAF SITES GOING BACK DOWN INTO LIFR MAINLY AFTER 10Z. AFTER 16Z
ONCE AGAIN EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO IFR AND MVFR AS FOG
BURNS OFF AND LOW CIGS GRADUALLY LIFT.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
323 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD
TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING LARGE SWINGS IN DAILY TEMPERATURES FROM COOL
NIGHTTIME LOWS TO WARM DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALSO...EXPECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES NEAR THE WARMER LAKE CHAMPLAIN WATERS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...FCST FOCUS TONIGHT WILL BE IMPACTS OF
HIGH CLOUDS ON TEMPS AND POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST AND AREAS OF
FOG. WATER VAPOR DEEP DRY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE SHIFTING INTO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WHILE MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED S/W TROF
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS STREAMING INTO OUR REGION. PROGGED 500 TO
200MB RH FIELDS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW MOST OF THE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL BE FROM THE EASTERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN VT THRU TONIGHT.
THINKING THESE CLOUDS COMBINED WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS BETWEEN 8 AND 14 KNOTS WILL LIMIT FROST POTENTIAL ACROSS OUR
DEEPER VT VALLEYS. ALSO...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG WILL BE DELAYED AND
LESS IN AREAL COVERAGE THAN LAST NIGHT...AS CROSS OVER TEMPS WILL
TAKE LONGER TO REACH. HAVE NOTED THE LATEST HRRR CONTS TO SUPPORT
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ASSOCIATED WITH S/W ENERGY AND
MOISTURE TO IMPACT US...BUT GIVEN DRY LAYER THINKING THIS WILL FALL
AS VIRGA. WILL MENTION FOG IN VALLEY SECTIONS OF VT/NORTHERN
NY...WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE NEAR SLK AND PARTS OF ESSEX
COUNTY VT. NO ADVISORY NECESSARY GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE OF
FROST ANTICIPATED. TEMPS WILL BE HIGHLY TERRAIN DEPEND WITH COOLEST
VALUES IN THE DEEPER/PROTECTED VALLEYS AWAY FROM LAKE
CHAMPLAIN...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE MID 30S TO M/U 40S TO MID
50S NEAR LAKE CHAMPLAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THRU WEDS
NIGHT. ON TUES WEAKENING MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS ACROSS
OUR REGION. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET AS SFC HIGH PRES
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA BUILDS TWD NORTHERN NY. PROGGED 85H
TEMPS CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH VALUES BETWEEN 7-9C ON
TUESDAY...SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S MTNS TO L/M 70S
WARMER VALLEYS. EXPECTING SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS ON TUES NIGHT WITH
AREAS OF FOG CONFINED TO THE CLIMO FAVORED VALLEYS OF NORTHERN NY
AND EASTERN/CENTRAL VT. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S
SLK/NORTHEAST KINGDOM TO L/M 50S CHAMPLAIN VALLEY. THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST A STRONG INVERSION WILL BE PRESENT...RESULTING IN
WARMER MID/UPPER SLOPES. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED ON WEDS WITH
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR
HUDSON BAY RIDGING TOWARD NORTHERN NY. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A WEAK
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR CWA ON WEDS NIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND NORTH WINDS BY THURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...FAIR, DRY AND SEASONAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A LARGE DOME OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER JAMES
BAY THURSDAY BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE
FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIME-FRAME, THEN OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST FOR
SUNDAY/MONDAY. MEANWHILE ALOFT WE`LL BE UNDER A GENERAL
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS AROUND.
TEMPERATURE WILL BE FAIRLY NORMAL, 60S/70S FOR HIGHS AND 40S FOR
LOWS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME
DENSE FOG IN THE CLIMO FAVORED VALLEYS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE LARGELY EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD UNDER SCT-BKN CIRRUS CLOUDS. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE
SOME LIFR FOG AT KMSS/KSLK FROM 05-11Z AND POSSIBLY AT KMPV FROM
08-12Z. CLOUDS MAY HINDER FOG AT KMPV. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL TURN SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW BUT
GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KTS.
OUTLOOK 18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
OVER THE REGION. VLIFR/LIFR FOG LIKELY FROM 06-14Z AT KSLK/KMPV
EACH MORNING AND POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
243 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
A HOT ONE THIS AFTERNOON. MAIN COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS LOCATED NR
LANGDON THRU DEVILS LAKE TO NR JAMESTOWN AT 19Z. TEMPS BOOSTING
TO AROUND 90 JUST EAST OF FRONT IN AREA OF WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
OTHERWISE TEMPS IN THE 80S WITH A GUSTY SOUTH WIND IN THE RRV INTO
NW/WCNTRL MN. HRRR TRIES TO INDICATE SOME PRECIP AHD OF FRONT IN
FAR ERN FCST AREA NR 00Z-01Z...BUT BEMIDJI SOUNDINGS FROM GFS/NAM
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S. THUS DEFINITELY FEEL
LIKE DRY FCST IS THE WAY TO GO.
TEMPS TO COOL DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND MUCH COOLER ON TUESDAY.
SOME MID CLOUDS WILL STREAM EAST LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...ESP
NW HALF OF THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 20-25 DEGREES COOLER.
MAIN MID LEVEL MOISTURE SATURATION IS FOCUSED IN WARM ADVECTION
ZONE IN NW ND/SE SASK TUESDAY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING
EAST RUNNING INTO VERY DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER AIRMASS. THUS FEEL ANY
THREAT FOR SHOWERS WILL BE JUST WEST OF OUR CWA...AND WILL HAVE
OUR FCST AREA DRY. 12Z NAM AND ECMWF TRIES TO SPIT OUT A LITTLE
BIT OF PRECIP WITH THIS MID LEVEL MOISTURE...AND CERTAINLY CAN BE
SOME...BUT THINK IT WILL DRY UP BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.
SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ARRIVES
INTO ERN SD/SW MN TUESDAY NIGHT AND SPREADS NORTHEAST AND NORTH AS
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET INCREASES. MAIN INSTABILITY SURGE HOWEVER IS
MORE SO TOWARD 12Z WED IN THE FAR SOUTH. THUS FOLLOWED WFO DLH
LEAD AND SLOWED DOWN ADVANCE OF PRECIP TUES NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST
POPS AFTER 06Z WED.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MOISTURE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE REMAINS WELL TO SOUR SOUTH OVER NEBRASKA INTO
WEDNESDAY. KEPT POPS IN THERE FOR SCT SHRA/TSTM ACTIVITY WED INTO
THURSDAY BUT UPPER WAVE TO OUR SOUTH STARTS TO WEAKEN AND FALL
APART. THUS COVERAGE OF PRECIP NOT GREAT.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BASICALLY LOOK TO STAY IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AS A TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. BEST MODEL
AGREEMENT COMES IN THE FRI/SAT TIME FRAME WITH THE WEATHER LOOKING
DRY AND TEMPS WARMING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
MODELS START TO DIFFER ON THE DETAILS SO CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO
WANE. THEREFORE HAVE PRETTY MUCH GONE WITH GUIDANCE PCPN CHANCES
WHICH INDICATE SOME LOW END CHANCES. TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
MAIN THING TODAY WILL BE A GRADUAL WIND SWITCH TO THE SW AND THEN
WEST THROUGH NW. COULD BE RATHER GUSTY FROM MID AFTERNOON THRU EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WINDS BEGIN TO LOSE THEIR GUSTS AGAIN. THERE ARE SOME
LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN...WHICH MAY TRY TO WORK IN OR THIN OUT BY THE TIME THEY
ARRIVE HERE. LEFT THE SCATTERED MENTION OF A 4000FT DECK JUST IN
CASE. OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD LIGHTEN UP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES BY THEN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LINGERING PATCH OF MVFR FOG IN SWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE NEXT ONE TO TWO HOURS... IT IS CURRENTLY NOT AFFECTING
ANY TAF SITE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTH WINDS. WRN TAF SITES MAY
EXPERIENCE S/SW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN. THERE MAY BE
A CHANCE OF SOME STRATUS AND/OR MVFR BR IN FAR NRN OK TUE AM. AT
THE MOMENT... HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TO LOW FOR ANY MENTION IN THE
KPNC TAF AT THIS TIME.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1102 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...
FOG AND LOW CLOUDS HAVE DIMINISHED IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, BUT IS
ONLY SLOWLY DISSIPATING IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS
OF TEXAS. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR PART OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR
THE KANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURE AND WEATHER GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO
ACCOMMODATE THIS AND FORECAST A SLOWER RISE IN EARLY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS. HRRR TEMPERATURES WERE LOADED AND
SLIGHT MODIFIED FOR THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE, THE HEAT RETURNS THIS
AFTERNOON TO PART OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 84 66 90 67 / 10 0 0 0
HOBART OK 89 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 91 68 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
GAGE OK 92 66 93 67 / 0 0 0 10
PONCA CITY OK 83 66 89 68 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 88 67 92 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09/04/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1221 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 18Z TAF`S.
BNA/CKV/CSV...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED TO OUR WEST WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS, WHICH IS
PROVIDING THE CLOUDINESS WE HAVE SEEN TODAY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. AM NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION THE NEXT 24 HRS, AS
THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO PULL FARTHER EASTWARD. PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RADIATION FOG OVERNIGHT AT CKV & CSV, OTHERWISE LOOK
FOR VFR WX THE NEXT 24 HRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
AVIATION 12Z DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WAS LOCATED JUST UPSTREAM THIS MORNING. THE WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN...BUT SHOULD NOT EFFECT THE TAF AREAS. OTW...THE
AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MID STATE AND THEN INTENSIFY TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...DRIER AIR WILL WIN OUT THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...THE TREND WILL BE TOWARD A DECREASE IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SKC SHOULD PREVAIL AFT 00Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
UPDATE...
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF MID
STATE AS OF 09Z(4AM CDT)...AND HRRR MODEL SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY
CONTINUING THRU 16Z(11 AM CDT)...WILL UPDATE THE SUITE OF FORECAST
PRODUCTS TO MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHWRS ACROSS THESE
AREAS THRU 16Z. SOME OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED RAINFALL MAY NOT BE
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND PER DRY AIR NOTED ACROSS THIS AREA
GENERALLY BELOW 700MB PER MOST RECENT LAPS SOUNDING PROFILES.
PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 246 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM(TODAY-WED NIGHT)...
FORECAST QUANDARIES...SKY COVER TIMING EROSION TODAY...TEMPS.
A STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECASTS THRU WED NIGHT...WITH STRONG CONSENSUS
BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTION RESOLUTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES AND
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILDING IN FROM THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL BE THE MAIN WX PLAYERS ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU WED NIGHT.
CLOUD COVERAGE APPROACHING 08Z WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD AND OUT OF
THE AREA AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INFLUENCES
MOVE EWD AND ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING INFLUENCES BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL THUS TAILOR CLOUD CONDITIONS TODAY FOR A DECREASING
CLOUDINESS TREND W MID MORNING THRU EARLY AFTERNOON E. MOCLR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT THRU WED NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES WILL BUILD
INTO THE MID STATE FROM THE SRN OHIO RIVER VALLEY TODAY BEFORE MERGING
WITH HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES ACROSS THE NE U.S.
AS FOR TEMPS...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...
AROUND 80 TO LOWER 80S...MID TO UPPER 70S PLATEAU. TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...LOW TO MID 80S...UPPER 70S
PLATEAU...BY WED AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO RISE MAINLY INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE AREA BY WED NIGHT.
LONG TERM(THU-SUN)...
THE GFS PROGRESSION OF THE EXT WEATHER PATTERN SEEMS TO BE A BIT MORE
BELIEVABLE AS OPPOSED TO THE EURO SOLUTION. THE ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOOKS A BIT UNORTHODOX AS IT STRETCHES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST NORTHEASTWARD AND THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS SOLUTIONS SHOWS A GENTLE RETROGRADE MOTION IN REGARD
TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THEREFORE...IN
THIS EXT FCST...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS SOLUTION.
ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS GA AND
EASTERN TN. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP MIDDLE TN ON THE DRY SIDE IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. IN THE LOWER LEVELS...A LARGE SFC HIGH
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON BAY WILL PROVIDE MAINLY AN
EASTWARD COMPONENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...THE OVERALL PATTERN
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE.
AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE WEEKEND...THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC HIGH WILL
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND REACH THE NEW ENGLAND AREA BY SUNDAY. AS A
SOUTHWESTERN SFC RIDGE DEVELOPS TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...MORE OF A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT WILL SET UP IN OUR NECK OF THE
WOODS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL NOW BE
LOCATED WEST OF THE MID STATE. THIS WILL PROVIDE A REBOUND OF
MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. SO FOR THE FCST...WILL BEGIN
TO BRING BACK LOW CHANCES OF SHOWER ACTIVITY...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS. THE EURO IS DRY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...SO EVEN THOUGH THATS
NOT THE MODEL OF CHOICE...A BLEND AND A TREND TOWARD ISC GRIDS WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR NOW.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 55 83 58 85 / 10 0 0 0
CLARKSVILLE 51 82 53 84 / 0 0 0 0
CROSSVILLE 52 77 55 79 / 10 0 0 0
COLUMBIA 51 83 54 84 / 10 0 0 0
LAWRENCEBURG 54 82 56 83 / 10 0 0 0
WAVERLY 53 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
101 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST AND ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. THIS MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
16-E CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF MEXICO. AT
LOWER LEVELS...MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED WITH FEW/SCT CLOUDS
AROUND 4 TO 6 KFT FOR THE FORECAST CYCLE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 8 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THEN
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON TUESDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW TAKES CONTROL ONCE AGAIN WITH SPEEDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 16 KNOTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE AT SAT/SSF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WHERE CIGS WILL OSCILLATE BETWEEN SCT010 AND BKN010...THUS HAVE
LEFT IN A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z FOR BORDERLINE MVFR-IFR CIGS. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MIDLEVEL CLOUD DECK WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE E-SE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THESE CLOUDS HELPED PREVENT
PATCHY FOG FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS...SO HAVE
REMOVED FOG FROM AUS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL EVERYWHERE BY
15Z AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH E-SE WINDS
UNDER 10 KTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THE EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AREA RADAR DATA SHOWS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG
A BURNET TO ROUND ROCK TO GIDDINGS LINE. THIS FEATURE IS WEAK AS
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO NOT SHOW ANY WIND SHIFT NORTH OF THE
MENTIONED AREAS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DO SHOW LIGHT WINDS AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE EAST OF I-35. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING EAST OF I-35 AND WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN THE
LATEST FORECAST. OTHERWISE...INFRARED SATELLITE CONTINUES TO
SHOW PLENTY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY THIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY AS
SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH EAST TEXAS.
A DRY AND WARM FORECAST IS IN STORE TODAY AND TOMORROW AS MID-
LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE. WE/LL ONCE
AGAIN SEE HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 60S AND 70S.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR MORE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW
MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. THE FORECAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. PLAINS. THE OPERATIONAL ECMWF AND GFS NOW DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THIS FEATURE AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL DATA.
FOR NOW...WE/LL GO WITH CONTINUED DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH A VERY
GRADUAL COOL DOWN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 96 72 95 70 / - - - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 95 68 94 66 / - - - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 96 69 97 68 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 94 70 93 68 / - - - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 95 71 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 71 94 68 / - - - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 96 69 95 68 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 69 94 68 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 71 95 69 94 68 / - - 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 73 95 72 94 71 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 95 70 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1251 PM CDT MON SEP 21 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.
&&
.AVIATION...
A large area of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move
into southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas by this evening.
Guidance indicates KCNM has the best chance to see a prolonged
period of shower/thunderstorm activity tonight as well as
potential ceiling/visibility reductions to IFR through Tuesday
morning. Uncertainty regarding storm activity increases further
east, though have included a TEMPO for KHOB and will defer to
later shifts for inclusion of thunderstorms at other TAF sites as
conditions warrant. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with
light southerly to southeasterly winds through the period.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...As of 4:00 AM CDT Monday...The main weather maker
for the next couple of days will be EPAC TD 16-E which is moving
across south central Baja California Sur. Southwesterly shear is
displacing the thunderstorm activity into Sonora Mexico. Ridging
is centered over West Texas/SE New Mexico.
As the remnants of TD 16-E move into the Desert SW mid level
moisture and instability will increase across the Davis and
Guadalupe Mtns. Both the high resolution HRRR and RAP13 models and
the mesoscale models indc convection possible over the Mtns thru
mid week. The mid/upper level feature associated with this system
will move NE through Northern New Mexico tonight/Tuesday with the
ridge flattening. Have slight chc pops as far east as the Western
Permian Basin tonight/Tuesday. With the moist ground from recent
rains have trended temps a little below MOS guidance.
Medium range models start to diverge mid week. The GFS is weaker
and further north with the remnant mid/upper level shortwave...
placing it in the Northern Plains by Thursday with broad ridging
centered over the Desert SW. The ECMWF keeps a stronger mid/upper
level shortwave further south with the ridge further west. The
ECMWF is significantly wetter and cooler for the CWA...especially
the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos Thursday thru Saturday. Will
keep thunderstorm chances in the Mtns Wed/Thu...and the CWA dry
Friday thru next weekend under weak ridging.
Strobin
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
84
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
325 PM EDT MON SEP 21 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM NEW ENGLAND...DOWN THE APPALACHIANS...INTO
THE CAROLINAS...AND LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER GEORGIA WITH A TROF TRAILING
INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM EDT MONDAY...
SHORT WAVE ENTERING WESTERN MISSISSIPPI WILL SEPARATE MORE FROM THE
NORTHERN STREAM BY TUESDAY AND BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES.
AT THE SURFACE...THE HIGH MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST DRIFTS WEST. THE NET RESULT WILL BE
PERSISTENT AND DEEP EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS. FORECAST LIFTED INDEX
AND OTHER STABILITY PARAMETERS SHOWED A WELL FORMED WEDGE AND STABLE
AIR REMAINING OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BULK OF THE DEEP MOISTURE MOVES NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING. BUT SATURATED WITH ENOUGH UPSLOPE TO KEEP
OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TONIGHT. NOT AS MUCH PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO TUESDAY BUT STILL ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURE RISE DURING THE DAY. WENT
WELL BELOW GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT ALONG AND OF THE
EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGES. HRRR SHOWED THE RAIN CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTY WARNING AREA MOVING NORTHEAST BY 00Z THEN MORE
LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING BY LATE IN THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES
WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM TAKES A DETOUR FROM THE SOUTHWEST US THROUGH
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL FAVOR DEVELOPMENT OF A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHEAST US BY TUESDAY NIGHT THAT WILL SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT. GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THERE ARE ENOUGH
DIFFERENCES TO CREATE GREATER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL.
MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WITH SOME LOWER THETA/E AIR WILL WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND HELP SUPPRESS TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A NOTABLE EXCEPTION TO THIS SCENARIO IS THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS MODEL WHICH FOR SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE RUNS IS NOT AS
ROBUST WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND CONSEQUENTLY BRINGS MUCH HIGHER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE REGION STARTING LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BELIEVE THE GFS IS DISCOUNTING THE STRENGTH OF THE WEDGE A BIT TOO MUCH
AND AT THIS TIME WILL SHADE THINGS TOWARD LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...THOUGH THIS IS FAR FROM A SETTLED MATTER AND WILL BE
CAREFULLY WATCHING TRENDS IN LATER MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UPPER
60S/LOW70S WEST...AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
UNCERTAINTY WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND BUT GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
COMING AROUND TO AN UNSETTLED AND WETTER SOLUTION. THE CLOSED LOW OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL BEGIN OPENING UP AND PULLING OUT TO THE
NORTHEAST AS SOUTHERN STREAM JET ENERGY PICKS UP STEAM AND DRIVES
DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL LOW OFF OF NORTH CAROLINA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
DEFORMATION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER
JET DIVERGENCE AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP SOME DEGREE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND UNTIL THE LOW
DEEPENS AND STARTS TO PULL AWAY ON MONDAY. WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF
TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES UPWARD BUT WILL NOT GO TOO FAR TOWARD
THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC ECMWF THAT IS VERY WET. LATER ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE WILL HELP BRING THIS PERIOD INTO FOCUS AS IT DRAWS BEAR.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM EDT MONDAY...
SURFACE BASED WEDGE WAS WELL ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND AND THIS PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z END OF
THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WIND UNDER THE INVERSION WERE NORTHEAST
TO EAST WHICH RESULTED IN AN INFLOW OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE AND IFR
TO LOW END MVFR CEILINGS.
THIS UPSLOPE AIDED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS GENERATING LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VISIBILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWED
THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ROUGHLY BETWEEN 23Z/7PM AND
03Z/11PM.
HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR OR LIFR OVERNIGHT.
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD FROM 03Z/11PM TO
12Z/8AM. THE LATEST LOCAL WRF RUN AND BUFKIT SUGGESTED A VERY
SLOW IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS MAY
REMAIN IFR UNTIL AFTER 18Z/2PM.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR WITH DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE PRECIPITATION AND POOR
FLYING CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...AMS/PM