Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/20/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
250 AM MST FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THEREAFTER...A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAINLY
FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE LOWERING TO BELOW NORMAL VALUES EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE STATE WITH AREAS OF CIRRUS
PASSING THRU. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THIS MORNING RANGED FROM
0.50" IN WRN PIMA COUNTY TO 1"-1.25" FROM TUCSON EAST WITH HIGHER
VALUES LURKING ACROSS NW MEXICO. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AS FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AS AN UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY ABOUT 800 MILES
WEST OF LA...DROPS SOUTH TO AROUND 600 MILES WEST OF BAJA SPUR BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE IS THEN POISED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING A REALLY GOOD CHANCE
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN...WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS LIKELY COULD BE A MONSOON SAVER AS MOST
AREAS ARE STILL RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR THE SEASON.
FOR TODAY...LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR ALONG WITH UOFA WRF RUNS ARE
INDICATING ISOLATED STORMS EAST OF A WILLCOX TO NOGALES LINE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
SATURDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL
EXPAND WEST TO THE TUCSON AREA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
SUNDAY...BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ACROSS PIMA...COCHISE
AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES WITH WESTERN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY HAVING THE
BEST SHOT OF SOME HEAVY RAINERS AS A WEAK TROF PASSES THROUGH.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BAJA
SPUR WILL BE LIFTING TOWARD THE DESERT SW...AND BRINGING ADDED UPPER
DYNAMICS ACROSS THE STATE. AREAS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
FALL...TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. IN ANY
EVENT POPS/QPF VALUES WERE RAISED ACROSS THE AREA. ALL OF THIS WILL
BE FINE TUNED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...DRYING OUT BUT STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE
AROUND FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WARMER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 19/12Z.
ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF KTUS INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. THE
CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR THE KOLS/KDUG TERMINALS IS
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FEW TO BROKEN
CLOUDS AROUND 8-12K FT AGL AND SCATTERED TO OVERCAST CLOUDS ABOVE
20K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE WIND WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN
10 KTS INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST
OF TUCSON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUCSON EAST AND
SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEN OCCUR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...THEN DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY. GUSTY OUTFLOWS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
715 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
UPDATED TO ADD POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS BASED ON
RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUN. THE NAM SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN DEVELOPING LATER TODAY OVER
SOME OF THE MTNS AND THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT ACRS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR IS DRY THRU ABOUT 00Z AND THEN IT SHOWS SOME ISOLD
PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE ERN PLAINS WHICH THEN EXITS THE STATE AROUND
07Z. MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW TONIGHT SO WL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL. OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACRS THE PLAINS...WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS. ALAMOSA AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE WL START BUILDING BACK OVR THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WL BRUSH NE AND E CENTRAL CO IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT HAS DEFINED SEPTEMBER IN
SE CO IS HERE TO STAY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS. POPS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NIL...EVEN FOR THE MT AREAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA REGION ON TUE AND INTO THE DESERT SW...IN A
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MOVE IT THROUGH NW CO ON WED. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SW MTS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL OVER AZ...SO FLASH FLOODING
RISK SHOULD BE LESS...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM THEN SHEARS OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION FOR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS
ON WED. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WILL SEE A SLIGHT FRONTAL PUSH ON THU BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO ITS SW-NE TRAJECTORY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WX WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY...AS A PACNW SYSTEM STARTS TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS DELIVERS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE NOT VERY WIDE...AND
SHOW A GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SO...NOT MUCH HOPE FOR ANY INTERESTING WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE A GOOD TIME
TO GET OUTSIDE PROJECTS DONE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS
INTO CO ON SUN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
212 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
...COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES ON SATURDAY...
STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL FALL-LIKE WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS. UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE PLAINS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER
DAY OF SEASONABLE TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR CONTINUE TO INDICATE SOME
ISOLD SHOWER OR TS DEVELOPING LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NRN TELLER
COUNTY. THERE IS SOME CU OVER THAT AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO CANNOT
RULE IT OUT...AND WILL LEAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND ALSO OVER THE HYR TRRN IN NRN FREMONT COUNTY AND
MOSQUITO RANGE THRU THIS EVENING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK POPS ELSEWHERE
SINCE THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TOO LOW OVER THE ERN RANGES AND
CENTRAL MTS. ANYTHING THAT GETS GOING LATER TODAY SHOULD WIND DOWN
THIS EVE. THE HRRR INDICATES CONVECTION DRIFTING NWD TONIGHT...SO
MAY BE ABLE TO PULL POPS OUT COMPLETELY IF THINGS DON`T DEVELOP BY
EARLY EVE.
OVERNIGHT...WILL BE COOL WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WINDS DIMINISHING.
SOME LOWS IN THE UPR 40S POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS. A FEW AREAS OF
LOWER CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD NOT BE TOO EXTENSIVE.
SATURDAY...FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPS EXPECTED AS THE COOLER AIR REMAINS
WITH US...AND SFC WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SE. SHOULD TOP OUT
AROUND 80 DEGREES FOR THE PLAINS...WHILE THE MTS AND HIGH VALLEYS
REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THIS COULD SPARK A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TRRN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING TOO WIDESPREAD OR HEAVY.
SHOULD BE A RATHER PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY ACROSS THE CWA. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING THRU THE AREA SAT NIGHT MAY BRING SOME ISOLD
PCPN TO LOCATIONS FROM THE ERN MTNS TO THE ERN BORDER...WHICH SHOULD
END TOWARD SUN MORNING. AN UPR RIDGE WL BUILD OVR THE AREA FOR SUN
AND MON WITH DRY WX EXPECTED AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPS.
ON TUE AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR SRN CA AND THE SW FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WL BRING AN INCREASE IN MSTR AND A CHANCE
FOR PCPN TO MAINLY THE SW CO MTNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF
IS A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE MSTR INTO THE AREA THAN THE GFS.
TUE NIGHT AND EARLY WED A SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACRS CO AND WL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING ISOLD TO SCT PCPN TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE ECMWF SHOWS A SLOWER MOVING TROF OVR THE AREA WED AND
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THU...WITH ISOLD TO SCT PCPN CHANCES FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED ON THU AND THERE
MAY BE SOME SCT PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTNS AREAS. AN UPR RIDGE IS
EXPECTED OVR THE AREA ON FRI. THE GFS SHOWS A MONSOON MSTR TAP INTO
THE AREA FRI...WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRIER. SO THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLD
TO SCT PCPN CHANCES ON FRI. IT GENERALLY LOOKS LIKE HIGH TEMPS TUE
THRU FRI WL BE ABOVE AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 208 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS EVENING
THROUGH SAT MORNING OVER THE CO PLAINS...BUT WINDS SHOULD ALSO BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE TERMINALS. RISK OF TS SHOULD REMAIN LOW
THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON...BUT COULD SEE A LOW RISK OF TS DEVELOP BY
00Z SUN...ESPECIALLY AT KCOS. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1036 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1036 PM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL NY THIS EVENING. A BAND OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS WITH A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CONTINUES ACROSS CNTRL NY...AND IS MOVING
ACROSS HERKIMER AND HAMILTON COUNTIES. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY. THE BEST CHC OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL
BE OVER THE WRN DACKS. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME WIND
GUSTS BWTN 25-30 KTS WITH THE FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF
PRODUCT SHOWS THE BAND OF SHOWERS/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING
PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. HAVE KEPT LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SRN
DACKS...WRN MOHAWK VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND PORTIONS OF
SRN VT...AND CHC TO SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION 2 AM AND 6 AM. EXPECTING LOWS WILL STILL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BREEZY DAY WITH SUN IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY A CLEAR
SKY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHES OF FROST IN THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST BUT
STILL CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPPER
ENERGY BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AREA COULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF PRODUCING SOME
PERIODS OF FILTERED SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND ANY
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WOULD BE VERY SLOW AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OCCUR...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH 40S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...BUT BY NEXT WEEKEND
A COOL DOWN TO SEASONAL READINGS IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IS IN CONTROL
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE MIDWEST WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK TO LITTLE COLD ADVECTION WITH
THIS FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LOWS TUE NIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS ON WED...AND M60S TO NEAR
70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...FAIR AND PLEASANT LATE SEPT WX CONTINUES
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER SRN CANADA...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WEAK MID AND UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SW QUEBEC ACCORDING TO THE GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.
THE GFS TRIES TO FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...THE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES WITH LOWS SIMILAR EACH NIGHT WITH U40S TO L50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
FRI INTO SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF TO THE
SOUTH THAT THE GFS NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST...AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED AGAIN. WE KEPT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TACONICS...AND MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM N-CNTRL ONTARIO WITH COOLER TEMPS. H850
TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C ON FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FALL TO +3C TO
+8C ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND TEMPS SHOULD FINISH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 02Z-
06Z FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS KPOU. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PREDOMINATELY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO 03Z. THE BEST CHC OF MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS WITH
THE SHOWERS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF. TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED BTWN
02Z-06Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP USED FROM
03Z-06Z AT KALB. A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KPOU BTWN 06Z-09Z.
EXPECT CIGS TO RECOVER TO VFR LEVELS AT 3.5-6 KFT AGL. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY FROM 11Z-14Z FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ERN
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE THE S TO SW AT 5-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM KALB NORTHWARD DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW BTWN 06Z-11Z...AND
THEN THE NW TO N AT 8-12 KTS AT 11Z-14Z. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT...
HAINES INDICES COULD APPROACH 6 IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
EASTERN CATSKILLS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM VALUES RH OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
15 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
419 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...AND AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG MAINLY AWAY FROM NYC
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS WILL BE 55-60...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE. KEPT LOWS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR DESPITE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S SINCE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWLY
MOISTENING TONIGHT IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z NAM AND NOW 12Z RAP ARE INDICATING AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...MOVING UP THE NJ COAST TOWARD WRN
LONG ISLAND/CT AND SKIRTING NYC. NAM QPF OVERDONE BUT NOW THINK
THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
A COUPLE DEG HIGHER THAN COMPOSITE MOS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY...WITH LOWER/MID 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS LATE SAT NIGHT. LIFT LOOKS
WEAK AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING THE PAC NW COAST DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SE US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PART OF THIS ENERGY SEPARATES ITSELF FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND CUTS OFF OVER THE SE US FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD...WHILE THE REST SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES IN THE INTERACTION OF THE
DIGGING EASTERN TROUGH WITH PIECES OF SUB-TROPICAL ENERGY ROUNDING
DOMINANT ATLANTIC RIDGING...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS
MOISTURE/ENERGY MAY GET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NW PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...A BREEZY NE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
A MAINLY DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN MARITIMES AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE COURTESY OF A SERIES OF LOWS
DRIFTING NE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE OFFSHORE
LOW/S INTO MIDWEEK...BUT NHC SEES A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT
OF TROPICAL/SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION TO AFFECTED BY SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MIDWEEK AS THE EARLIER MENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH...BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE/S AND STRENGTH
OF UPPER CONFLUENCE/SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE.
OTHERWISE...THE SAME MIDWEEK PATTERN COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
IN THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH...A BROAD CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH...AND DOMINANT OFFSHORE RIDGING TO THE SE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
VFR TODAY. SEA BREEZES NOW THROUGH ALL BUT KSWF. EXPECT S-SSE
WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTN...BCMG LIGHTER TOWARDS 00Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR TUE. N-NE GUSTS 20-25KT.
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE.
SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL WATERS IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCA DEVELOPS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW.
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...USUALLY
UNDER-PREDICTED IN WNA GUIDANCE. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT
DURING THIS TIME ACROSS ALL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY KBDI
VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 300 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...PREDECESSOR DRY CONDS WITH A GUSTY N FLOW
AND LOW RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING THE
MON-FRI TIMEFRAME DUE TO THE FORECAST OF PROLONGED E-NE FLOW.
POTENTIAL FOR IMPACTS APPEARS LOW FOR MON...BUT MAY INCREASE IN
THE TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCALES FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WITH GRADAUALLY RISING ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDES.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/NV
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
402 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD TO THE NORTH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AND THEN TO THE NORTHEAST INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHILE LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE HIGH WILL SLIDE E AND WEAKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...AND AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES UP THE COAST.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING...SHOULD SEE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG MAINLY AWAY FROM NYC
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING. LOWS IN THE VALLEYS OF ORANGE
COUNTY AND THE LONG ISLAND PINE BARRENS WILL BE 55-60...WITH 60S
ELSEWHERE. KEPT LOWS AROUND 60 ACROSS THE INTERIOR DESPITE
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S SINCE AIR MASS WILL BE SLOWLY
MOISTENING TONIGHT IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE 12Z NAM AND NOW 12Z RAP ARE INDICATING AREA OF ISENTROPIC
LIFT...WITH CLOUDS/SHOWERS...MOVING UP THE NJ COAST TOWARD WRN
LONG ISLAND/CT AND SKIRTING NYC. NAM QPF OVERDONE BUT NOW THINK
THIS IS AT LEAST WORTH A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FOR SAT MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ON SAT SHOULD LEAD TO HIGH TEMPS
A COUPLE DEG HIGHER THAN COMPOSITE MOS GUIDANCE AND SIMILAR TO
THOSE OF TODAY...WITH LOWER/MID 80S.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS LATE SAT NIGHT. LIFT LOOKS
WEAK AND DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POP. LOWS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PIVOTS THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CANADA ON
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPING FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ENTERING THE PAC NW COAST DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE SE US EARLY NEXT WEEK. PART OF THIS ENERGY SEPARATES ITSELF FROM
THE NORTHERN STREAM AND CUTS OFF OVER THE SE US FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK PERIOD...WHILE THE REST SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHEAST DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST LIES IN THE INTERACTION OF THE
DIGGING EASTERN TROUGH WITH PIECES OF SUB-TROPICAL ENERGY ROUNDING
DOMINANT ATLANTIC RIDGING...AND HOW CLOSE TO THE COAST THIS
MOISTURE/ENERGY MAY GET FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WELL TO THE NW PASSES EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY
MORNING. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE
A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS BEGINS ADVECTING INTO THE REGION ON
BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW ON SUNDAY. TEMPS SUNDAY SHOULD BE NEAR
SEASONABLE.
AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD THROUGH AND EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...A BREEZY NE FLOW WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN
A MAINLY DRY BUT SEASONABLY COOL CANADIAN MARITIMES AIRMASS OVER THE
REGION. THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL BE COURTESY OF A SERIES OF LOWS
DRIFTING NE WELL OFF THE EAST COAST. AS MENTIONED
BEFORE...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON EXACT EVOLUTION OF THESE OFFSHORE
LOW/S INTO MIDWEEK...BUT NHC SEES A MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR SOME SORT
OF TROPICAL/SUB-TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR THE REGION TO AFFECTED BY SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY MIDWEEK AS THE EARLIER MENTIONED NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES/SWINGS THROUGH...BUT THIS WILL ULTIMATELY BE
DEPENDENT ON EVOLUTION OF THE OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE/S AND STRENGTH
OF UPPER CONFLUENCE/SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE NE.
OTHERWISE...THE SAME MIDWEEK PATTERN COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
IN THE CONTINUED SPLIT FLOW REGIME...WITH THE REGION IN BETWEEN
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW WELL TO THE NORTH...A BROAD CUTOFF LOW TO THE
SOUTH...AND DOMINANT OFFSHORE RIDGING TO THE SE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE.
VFR TODAY. SEA BREEZES NOW THROUGH ALL BUT KSWF. EXPECT S-SSE
WINDS AROUND 10KT THIS AFTN...BCMG LIGHTER TOWARDS 00Z.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCCASIONAL GUSTS 16-19KT POSSIBLE THIS AFTN.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
.SAT...VFR.
.SUN-TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC SUB-VFR TUE. N-NE GUSTS 20-25KT.
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.WED...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WATERS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH SATURDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OFFSHORE.
SCA WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL WATERS IN WAKE OF
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SCA DEVELOPS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW.
OCEAN SEAS COULD BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...USUALLY
UNDER-PREDICTED IN WNA GUIDANCE. WINDS MAY ALSO GUST CLOSE TO 25 KT
DURING THIS TIME ACROSS ALL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER. CURRENTLY KBDI
VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 300 OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION.
DEPENDING ON COVERAGE OF LIGHT RAINFALL WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN...PREDECESSOR DRY CONDS AND A GUSTY N FLOW AND
LOW RH VALUES MAY RESULT IN AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ON
SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING FROM MONDAY INTO
FRIDAY WITH THE FORECAST OF PROLONGED E-NE FLOW. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THIS TIME FRAME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE ON
WHAT AREAS...IF ANY ARE AT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/NV
NEAR TERM...GOODMAN
SHORT TERM...GOODMAN
LONG TERM...NV
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...GOODMAN/NV
FIRE WEATHER...NV
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/NV
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...NV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
935 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...SURFACE LOW WELL OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST AND WILL FINALLY TAKE OFF TO THE NE ON SUNDAY. THE 00Z JAX
SOUNDING INDICATES MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR AND COUPLED WITH
LIGHTER WINDS MAY LEAD TO PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS I-75 AND THE SUWANNEE VALLEY AS INDICATED BY SOME SHORT
RANGE MODELS.
&&
.AVIATION...SKIES HAVE MOSTLY CLEARED THE TAF SITES WITH VFR
PREVAILING THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. FAIRLY MOIST LOW LEVELS AND DRY MID
LEVEL AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AND POSSIBLE STRATUS FROM
ABOUT 07Z-13Z TONIGHT. BASED NARRE-TL AND LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN...PATCHY MVFR FOG MOST FAVORED FOR GNV AND VQQ BUT REMAINS
POSSIBLE WITH A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR JAX...CRG...AND SGJ. MOS
SUGGESTING A CHANCE OF IFR FOR GNV FOR ABOUT A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD BTN
09Z-12Z BUT NOT READY GO DOWN TO THAT CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT TAF SITES AFTER 13Z/14Z SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY AN EXERCISE CAUTION OFFSHORE FOR TONIGHT. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 66 93 67 90 / 10 0 0 20
SSI 73 86 72 83 / 10 0 0 20
JAX 70 92 70 88 / 10 0 0 10
SGJ 73 88 72 85 / 10 0 0 10
GNV 69 92 68 90 / 10 0 0 10
OCF 70 92 69 90 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
PP/ARS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE (OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY)...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY BENIGN
MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS THIS EVENING. MOST
IMPRESSIVE FEATURE IS SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING QUICKLY EASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WITH A ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS...BUT OTHERWISE...MAIN WEATHER MAKERS INCLUDE A
PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...AND A SHEARED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
PLUME TO THE EAST OF THIS TROUGH AXIS IS ENTIRELY SOUTH AND EAST
OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ALOFT ABOVE
500MB NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE PENINSULA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE IS SLOWLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH A WEAK
TRAILING TROUGH AXIS BACK TO THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH
AXIS...INTERACTING WITH FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE PROVIDED
THE FOCUS TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCT DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN RATHER SHALLOW IN NATURE
WHEN COMPARED TO OUR NORMAL SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION DUE TO THE VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE ABOVE AROUND 20KFT. WE HAVE SEEN THE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING STRIKE WITH THE ACTIVITY TODAY...BUT GENERALLY THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE UPDRAFTS HAS PRESENTED SIGNIFICANT CHARGE
SEPARATION AND KEPT THE LIGHTNING SPORADIC IN NATURE.
THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A DECREASING TREND IN EVENING CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AFTER 02-03Z...THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GENERALLY DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE DEPTH OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT ONLY INCREASES AS WE HEAD INTO
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. WITH LESS
COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SHOWERS COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN
LESS. BEST CHANCES FOR A BRIEF LATE DAY SHOWER/STORM FOR SUNDAY
SHOULD BE ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH-CENTRAL ZONES LIKE
HARDEE/DESOTO/HIGHLANDS COUNTIES.
&&
.AVIATION...
LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING. HAVE REMOVED ALL
MENTION OF SHOWERS FROM THE 00Z TAF PACKAGE...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF KLAL...WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY STILL FORCE A BRIEF SHOWER
THROUGH 02Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT...
UNTIL A SMALL PROBABILITY OF MVFR CIG RESTRICTION FROM KLAL TO
KPGD...DOWN TO KFMY/KRSW IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING DAWN. GENERAL
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY...WITH BEST
FOR A LATE DAY SHOWER FROM KPGD SOUTH TO KFMY/KRSW.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT...LEAVING A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN
PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR SUNDAY AND THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE WEEK. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH THIS PATTERN IN PLACE...OUTSIDE OF WIDELY
SCATTERED MAINLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION DURING
THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WILL CAUSE WINDS TO INCREASE OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST... OCCASIONALLY APPROACHING CAUTIONARY LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 90 76 90 / 10 10 10 10
FMY 75 91 76 91 / 10 30 30 10
GIF 74 92 73 91 / 20 20 10 10
SRQ 75 89 75 89 / 10 10 10 10
BKV 71 92 70 91 / 10 10 0 10
SPG 77 89 77 89 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...14/MROCZKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST. A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND OFFSHORE FROM KFLL THIS
EVENING WILL DIMINISH BY 01-02Z WITH SURFACE WIND L/V THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. A SLIGHT MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD
LEAD TO A FEW TSRA DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE
IN THE PERIOD SO PLACE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
UPDATE...
GPS MET DATA SHOWS PW AT 1.9 INCHES AT MIAMI AND 1.6 INCHES AT
NAPLES...AND WITH A WNW WIND FLOW...THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE IN TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MINIMAL ALL DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE NOW AFFECTING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE
SE THIS EVENING EXITING THE COAST WHILE WANING LATER THIS EVENING
WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THE LAKE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RARE, QUIET RADAR FOR A SUMMER AFTERNOON HERE IN SOUTH FL. THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND H85...AND CONVECTION
SURE IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING. A MAJOR FACTOR IS LACK OF
CONVERGENCE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH EVERYWHERE AND
NO ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FORMING. HRRR SHOWS AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING BY 5 PM...BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. GOES SOUNDER PW
FIELDS SHOW DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF MOVING IN AS WELL. GIVEN ALL
OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY-EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A MEAN WIND FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW WHILE SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE W-NW EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST-EAST AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED-SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH FOCUS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON MONDAY.
BY MID NEXT WEEK A MID LEVEL LOW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THEN RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS CUT OFF LOW HAS
BEEN CHANGING AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW WET AND STORMY
IT GETS HERE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
NO CONCERNS AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
4 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 89 / 40 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 78 89 / 30 40 40 30
MIAMI 77 92 78 90 / 20 50 30 40
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
GPS MET DATA SHOWS PW AT 1.9 INCHES AT MIAMI AND 1.6 INCHES AT
NAPLES...AND WITH A WNW WIND FLOW...THIS DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE IN TONIGHT. CONVECTION HAS BEEN MINIMAL ALL DAY. A FEW
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS ARE NOW AFFECTING THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLIDE
SE THIS EVENING EXITING THE COAST WHILE WANING LATER THIS EVENING
WITH TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
HIGHER FOR THE LAKE REGION THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RARE, QUIET RADAR FOR A SUMMER AFTERNOON HERE IN SOUTH FL. THE
MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND H85...AND CONVECTION
SURE IS STRUGGLING TO GET GOING. A MAJOR FACTOR IS LACK OF
CONVERGENCE WITH A WEST-NORTHWEST WIND NEAR 10 MPH EVERYWHERE AND
NO ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FORMING. HRRR SHOWS AN ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING BY 5 PM...BUT THAT IS QUESTIONABLE. GOES SOUNDER PW
FIELDS SHOW DRIER AIR OVER THE GULF MOVING IN AS WELL. GIVEN ALL
OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE KEPT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY-EVENING.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH A MEAN WIND FLOW OUT OF THE W-NW WHILE SURFACE WINDS
OUT OF THE W-NW EVENTUALLY BECOME NORTHEAST-EAST AS SURFACE HIGH
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. ISOLATED-SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSTORMS ARE FORECAST WITH FOCUS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST ON SUNDAY AND SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON MONDAY.
BY MID NEXT WEEK A MID LEVEL LOW IS STILL SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO DEVELOP AND CUT OFF THEN RETROGRADE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THIS CUT OFF LOW HAS
BEEN CHANGING AND THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON JUST HOW WET AND STORMY
IT GETS HERE MID-LATE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW AN
INCREASING TREND DURING THIS PERIOD AS EVEN THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW MORE STORMINESS AND INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA
MARINE...
NO CONCERNS AS WINDS LIGHTEN AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY LESS THAN
4 FT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 76 89 / 40 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 77 90 78 89 / 30 40 40 30
MIAMI 77 92 78 90 / 20 50 30 40
NAPLES 77 90 76 91 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
418 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE...FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ALONG THE
COAST...
CURRENT...07Z MSAS ANALYSIS INDICATES SFC LOW IS STARTING TO DEVELOP
OFFSHORE FROM THE NE FL COAST WITH NW WINDS AROUND THE DEVELOPING
SFC LOW PRESSURE CENTER ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL FL EARLY
THIS MORNING. IT APPEARS THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT LOW AS A
WEAKER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES TWD SW FL COAST LATER TODAY.
TODAY...00Z GFS KEEPS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES FROM 2.1 TO 2.3 INCHES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ONE MORE
AFTERNOON WITH THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. IT
APPEARS TWO AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...THE FIRST
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE GFS AND
NAM BOTH INDICATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE WEAK LOW
APPROACHING SW FL. HRRR HAS CONVECTION A BIT FARTHER SOUTH FAVORING
MARTIN COUNTY BY MID AFTERNOON. ACROSS NRN SECTIONS LOW LVL FLOW HAS
STARTED TO RESPOND TO THE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING OFFSHORE WITH
A SURGE OF STRONGER LOW LVL N/NNE LOW LVL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE LOW PRESSURE AREA FORECAST TO PUSH SOME CONVECTION SOUTH TOWARD
VOLUSIA COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES SOME WEST OF
ORLANDO BUT STILL FROM 50-60 PCT WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTN WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL
LEAVE THE FLOOD WATCH AS IS WITH COASTAL AREAS HAVING SEEN THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IT WOULD NOT TAKE
TOO MUCH MORE RAIN TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING ISSUES. WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S WITH SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AHEAD OF
THE NW FLOW TO THE NORTH AND LOTS OF LOW LVL AND GROUND MOISTURE...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT VERO BEACH AND FT PIERCE. THE FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE NOT TOO LONG AFTER SUNRISE BUT WILL HAVE TO SEE IF ANY FOG
DEVELOPMENT ENSUES FURTHER NORTH WHERE STRATUS IS DEVELOPING FROM
ORLANDO NORTHWARD.
TONIGHT...GFS HAS SFC LOW DEEPENING TO 1005 MBS TONIGHT OFF THE NE
FL COAST WITH SOME CONVERGENT BAND SHOWERS LIKELY AFFECTING VOLUSIA
COUNTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. FATHER
SOUTH...EXPECT SCATTERED EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST TO WANE BY LATE EVENING WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING OFFSHORE INTO
THE ATLC OVERNIGHT. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.
SAT...500MB TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS
FL WILL AID IN INTENSIFYING THE SFC LOW EAST OF GA/SC COAST. MODELS
SHOW DEEPER MOISTURE SHIFTING EAST WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER THERE
WILL STILL BE SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE AFT...ESPECIALLY WITH
ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FOR LIFT FROM TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSSING
THE REGION AND PROXIMITY OF MID LEVEL TROUGH. HAVE POPS AROUND 40
PERCENT OVER THE AREA. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND
90 DEG.
SUN-MON...LOW OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD
AS 500MB TROUGH AXIS MOVES INTO S FL. GFS SHOWS MUCH DRIER AIR
MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WITH PW
VALUES AS LOW AS 0.9-1.0 INCH. HOWEVER NAM NOT QUITE AS DRY...SO
TRENDED LOWER WITH POPS BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE MAV/MEX GUIDANCE
FOR NOW. REGARDLESS LOW RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED LATE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH FORECAST POPS AOB 30 PERCENT. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EXPECTED.
TUE-THU...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING ANOTHER
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS INTO TUE
AND EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. LOW LEVEL
FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE INTO MID WEEK AS LOW OFF THE EAST COAST
EITHER WEAKENS OR LIFTS NORTHEAST...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL IS TO
BE BELIEVED. MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES BACK ACROSS THE REGION IN
THIS ONSHORE FLOW AND PROXIMITY OF CUTOFF LOW ALOFT WILL KEEP WX
PATTER UNSETTLED FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS AND INCREASING SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE WILL
KEEP HIGHS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...IFR-MVFR STRATUS WILL AFFECT TERMINALS UNTIL AROUND
13Z...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT KVRB-KFPR. EXPECT STRATUS TO SLOWLY
LIFT THROUGH 15Z THOUGH SOME MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY LINGER. SCATTERED-
NMRS SHRA/TSRA MAINLY FROM KVRB-KSUA IN THE AFTERNOON AND ALSO
HIGHER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AROUND KDAB VCNTY LATER INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH SOME ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SFC LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. SHOULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION
DEVELOP BTWN 18Z-21Z IN THE VCNTY OF ORLANDO AREA TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...NW WINDS TO 5-10 KNOTS ACROSS NRN SECTIONS WITH SW FLOW S
OF THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. SEAS MAINLY 3-4 FT. SFC
LOW WILL DEEPEN OFFSHORE OF NE FL TONIGHT WITH SOME HIGHER SEAS
MAKING IT INTO THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS TO 4-5 FT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS.
SAT-TUE...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. TRAILING WEAK FRONTAL
TROUGH CROSSING THE REGION SAT WILL SHIFT WESTERLY WINDS TO A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BUILD TO UP TO 4-5 FEET IN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. NORTH WINDS THEN
DECREASE TO 5-10 KNOTS SUN WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2-4 FEET.
WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIND SPEEDS
REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DECREASE WITH FORECAST WAVE HEIGHTS 2-3 FEET.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...AS A RESULT OF THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS...THE SAINT JOHNS
RIVER ABOVE LAKE HARNEY /GENF1/ HAS REACHED 6.0FT...WHICH IS LESS
THAN A FOOT BELOW ACTION STAGE (6.5FT). THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO
REACH THE LOWER THRESHOLD OF ACTION STAGE (6.6FT) THERE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE SAINT JOHNS RIVER AT ASTOR /ASTF1/ HAS REACHED 2.1FT...WHICH IS
.4 FEET BELOW ACTIONS STAGE (2.5FT). THE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW ACTIONS STAGE...GRADUALLY CRESTING NEAR 2.2 TO 2.3FT THIS
WEEKEND...AND REMAINING STEADY STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 72 87 70 / 70 50 40 10
MCO 85 72 89 72 / 60 30 40 10
MLB 85 72 90 74 / 70 30 40 20
VRB 85 72 89 71 / 70 40 40 20
LEE 86 72 88 72 / 60 30 40 10
SFB 86 73 88 72 / 60 30 40 10
ORL 86 73 88 74 / 60 30 40 10
FPR 86 73 89 72 / 80 40 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY-
INDIAN RIVER-MARTIN-NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY-SOUTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY-ST. LUCIE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...VOLKMER
LONG TERM....WEITLICH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
259 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...
211 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
IN ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FARTHER NORTH...WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BEGINS TO FEEL MORE OF THE
LIFT FROM A PAIR OF LEADING SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A VERY WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED. THESE ARE IN AREAS WHERE EARLIER BREAKS IN LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS HAVE ENABLED GREATER DESTABILIZATION. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTENDING TO NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THESE
ADDITIONAL LEADING SHORTWAVES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER NORTH...FEEL THE MORE
ACTIVE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND STORM MOTION IS NOT
SUPER FAST. A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS AS WELL DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NEAR 7 DEG/KM ON THE KDVN MORNING SOUNDING)...THOUGH
SHEAR HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED EARLIER
TODAY ON THE RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS. IT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...KEEPING SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL BE ELEVATED.
IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A
SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
BREAK...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD LAST THE LONGEST FOR POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST ABD THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
THE TIMING ON THIS ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
AFTER 7-8 PM IN THE WEST...AND AFTER 9 PM CLOSER TO CHICAGO. CURRENT
SHORT TERM RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER
THAN THAT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-57. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
UPPER Q-G FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80 FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY WITH
THIS WAVE...BUT HAVE HELD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CURRENT
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINS LAST NIGHT. LEAST FAVORED
AREAS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND HAVE PLACED HIGHEST
QPF IN THE MOST FAVORED FORCING LOCATIONS IN NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40+ KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AGAIN WITH THE LATER EVENING STORMS...WITH THE WIND
THREAT CONTINGENT ON STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH
SHOULD EASE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVERNIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
236 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT TERM RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA PAST
SUNRISE...THOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS QUICKLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALLOWING A QUICK END TO ANY
PRECIP AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS...COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING WILL MAKE FOR AN AUTUMN FEEL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME CHILLY LOW-
MID 40S IN COOLER SPOTS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE/BLENDED TOWARD
COOLER MAV MINS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY QUIET...WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR A FEW
DAYS. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY PLEASANT PERIOD OF MILD DAYS WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE LOW 70S (UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE) TO
75-80/LOW 80S RANGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60.
NO REAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED RAIN APPEARS AT THIS TIME BEYOND
SATURDAY MORNING...UNTIL PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...OR DONT DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ALONG IT...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE RE-BUILDING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS HAVE HELD FORECAST
DRY THROUGH FRI AND GIVEN JUST A NOD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY PER
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 20Z...
* MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
* WIND SHIFT TO NE THIS AFTN.
* SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL THIS AFTN WITH LAKE BREEZE...MORE
WIDESPREAD TSRA AND SHRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS ARND 25 KT.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NE ARND 10KT SATURDAY AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A MESSY FORECAST IS UPON US. MVFR STRATUS IS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL LOCATED FROM WAUKEGAN
TO YORKVILLE TO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST REACHING THE TERMINALS ARND 21Z.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLOWER SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH WIND
SPEEDS ARND 7-8KT. DECIDED TO KEEP 9KT SINCE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WERE SHOWING 10KT. PUSHED THE LAKE BREEZE TIMING BACK TO 21Z WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY ALL LAKE FRONT BUOYS STILL SHOWING SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RACES OVER
NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBY. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING TO SE EARLY
THIS AFTN AND KEEP VEERING TO NW AND GUSTING TO 25KT LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES BECOME VFR AS THE LOWER CIGS SHIFT
EAST WITH THE LOW AND WINDS WILL BECOME NE ARND 10KT SATURDAY
AFTN.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 20Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTN AND IN
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING 10 KT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF NE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS/LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.MARINE...
257 PM CDT
MAIN MARINE CONCERNS ARE IN THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF NORTH GALES LIKELY ON CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN SATURDAY MORNING.
A NEARLY STATIONARY COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN CANADA...SOUTHWEST ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY DEEPENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF
THE LAKE EARLY SATURDAY AND PULLING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST AND
CLEAR OF THE LAKE. AS THE LOW DEEPENS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THE COMBINATION OF A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 30-35 KT WINDS OVER THE LAKE. GALE FORCE WINDS APPEAR TO
BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN FROM THE
PREDAWN HOURS THROUGH MID-LATE MORNING SATURDAY. WINDS WILL THEN
QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET WITH THE TRAILING WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINING OVER THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN PART OF THE
LAKE...WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE
LAKES THROUGH MID- WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING A BIT ON THE NORTH END OF THE LAKE AND
PERHAPS GUSTING 15-20 KTS AT TIMES...WHILE REMAINING LIGHTER
FARTHER SOUTH.
RATZER
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022...7
PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
237 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...
211 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
IN ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FARTHER NORTH...WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BEGINS TO FEEL MORE OF THE
LIFT FROM A PAIR OF LEADING SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A VERY WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED. THESE ARE IN AREAS WHERE EARLIER BREAKS IN LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS HAVE ENABLED GREATER DESTABILIZATION. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTENDING TO NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THESE
ADDITIONAL LEADING SHORTWAVES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER NORTH...FEEL THE MORE
ACTIVE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND STORM MOTION IS NOT
SUPER FAST. A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS AS WELL DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NEAR 7 DEG/KM ON THE KDVN MORNING SOUNDING)...THOUGH
SHEAR HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED EARLIER
TODAY ON THE RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS. IT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...KEEPING SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL BE ELEVATED.
IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A
SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
BREAK...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD LAST THE LONGEST FOR POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST ABD THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
THE TIMING ON THIS ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
AFTER 7-8 PM IN THE WEST...AND AFTER 9 PM CLOSER TO CHICAGO. CURRENT
SHORT TERM RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER
THAN THAT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-57. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
UPPER Q-G FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80 FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY WITH
THIS WAVE...BUT HAVE HELD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CURRENT
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINS LAST NIGHT. LEAST FAVORED
AREAS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND HAVE PLACED HIGHEST
QPF IN THE MOST FAVORED FORCING LOCATIONS IN NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40+ KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AGAIN WITH THE LATER EVENING STORMS...WITH THE WIND
THREAT CONTINGENT ON STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH
SHOULD EASE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVERNIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
236 PM CDT
SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT TERM RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO PERSIST
MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA PAST
SUNRISE...THOUGH BREEZY NORTH WINDS QUICKLY ADVECT DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALLOWING A QUICK END TO ANY
PRECIP AND DECREASING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE SUNSHINE RETURNS...COOLER TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70
AND BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING AROUND 20 MPH ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING WILL MAKE FOR AN AUTUMN FEEL. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT/CALM
WINDS AND COOL/DRY AIR MASS...WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME CHILLY LOW-
MID 40S IN COOLER SPOTS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE/BLENDED TOWARD
COOLER MAV MINS. BREEZY NORTH WINDS GUSTING 20-25 MPH SATURDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
REST OF EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN VERY QUIET...WITH A
GRADUAL MODERATING TREND THROUGH MID/LATE WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...AND EVENTUALLY BUILDS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MID-WEEK. SURFACE
HIGH SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY LATER SUNDAY...THOUGH WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF SFC RIDGE AXIS LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION FOR A FEW
DAYS. THIS SETS UP A FAIRLY PLEASANT PERIOD OF MILD DAYS WITH
TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING FROM THE LOW 70S (UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE) TO
75-80/LOW 80S RANGE BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN
THE 40S/50S MODERATING BACK INTO THE 50S/NEAR 60.
NO REAL THREAT OF ORGANIZED RAIN APPEARS AT THIS TIME BEYOND
SATURDAY MORNING...UNTIL PERHAPS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SETTLES ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI/WESTERN LAKES
REGION. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP THIS FRONT NORTH OF THE AREA
HOWEVER...OR DONT DEVELOP SIGNIFICANT PRECIP ALONG IT...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE RE-BUILDING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS HAVE HELD FORECAST
DRY THROUGH FRI AND GIVEN JUST A NOD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY PER
BLENDED GUIDANCE.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
* WIND SHIFT TO NE THIS AFTN.
* SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL THIS AFTN WITH LAKE BREEZE...MORE
WIDESPREAD TSRA AND SHRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS ARND 25 KT.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NE ARND 10KT SATURDAY AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A MESSY FORECAST IS UPON US. MVFR STRATUS IS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL LOCATED FROM WAUKEGAN
TO YORKVILLE TO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST REACHING THE TERMINALS ARND 21Z.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLOWER SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH WIND
SPEEDS ARND 7-8KT. DECIDED TO KEEP 9KT SINCE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WERE SHOWING 10KT. PUSHED THE LAKE BREEZE TIMING BACK TO 21Z WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY ALL LAKE FRONT BUOYS STILL SHOWING SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RACES OVER
NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBY. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING TO SE EARLY
THIS AFTN AND KEEP VEERING TO NW AND GUSTING TO 25KT LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES BECOME VFR AS THE LOWER CIGS SHIFT
EAST WITH THE LOW AND WINDS WILL BECOME NE ARND 10KT SATURDAY
AFTN.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTN AND IN
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING 10 KT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF NE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS/LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM...LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. AS THE LOW REACHES
LAKE HURON BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND THE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A WEAKER RIDGE WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022...7
PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WATCH...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
214 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...
211 PM CDT
THROUGH TONIGHT...
IN ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE FARTHER NORTH...WE ARE
BEGINNING TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FARTHER NORTH INTO
OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AREA BEGINS TO FEEL MORE OF THE
LIFT FROM A PAIR OF LEADING SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF A VERY WELL
DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED CIRCULATION MOVING EAST
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. THE FIRST OF THESE WAVES IS PUSHING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS WHERE MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
FOCUSED. THESE ARE IN AREAS WHERE EARLIER BREAKS IN LOWER LEVEL
STRATUS HAVE ENABLED GREATER DESTABILIZATION. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA. ADDITIONAL
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND EXTENDING TO NEAR
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN FAR EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF THESE
ADDITIONAL LEADING SHORTWAVES.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
INTO NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. AS THE AFTERNOON
CONTINUES. WITH THE THICK CLOUD COVER FARTHER NORTH...FEEL THE MORE
ACTIVE STORMS WILL BE CONFINED ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED AND STORM MOTION IS NOT
SUPER FAST. A SEVERE THREAT EXISTS AS WELL DUE TO MODEST MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES (NEAR 7 DEG/KM ON THE KDVN MORNING SOUNDING)...THOUGH
SHEAR HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT LOWER THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED EARLIER
TODAY ON THE RAP SPC MESOANALYSIS. IT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
AGAIN AS THE AFTERNOON CONTINUES...KEEPING SOME THREAT FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND HAIL MAINLY FOR OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS WAVE IS NOT ANTICIPATED AS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE NORTH WILL BE ELEVATED.
IT LOOKS LIKE AFTER THIS ACTIVITY MOVES THROUGH...THERE COULD BE A
SHORT BREAK BEFORE THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THIS
BREAK...IF IT OCCURS...WOULD LAST THE LONGEST FOR POINTS SOUTH AND
EAST ABD THERE MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN AREAS NORTH AND WEST.
THE TIMING ON THIS ROUND OF MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
AFTER 7-8 PM IN THE WEST...AND AFTER 9 PM CLOSER TO CHICAGO. CURRENT
SHORT TERM RUNS OF THE HRRR/RAP SUGGEST IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY LATER
THAN THAT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-57. THE BEST COMBINATION OF
UPPER Q-G FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH AND LOWER FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW IS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
80 FOR THIS SECOND ROUND OF STORMS...WHICH IS MAXIMIZED IN THE LATE
EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN THE PERIOD OF HIGHEST CONCERN
FOR HEAVY RAIN EXISTS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN ACTIVITY WITH
THIS WAVE...BUT HAVE HELD ONTO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CURRENT
AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE HEAVIEST RAINS LAST NIGHT. LEAST FAVORED
AREAS ARE SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 57 AND HAVE PLACED HIGHEST
QPF IN THE MOST FAVORED FORCING LOCATIONS IN NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR OF 40+ KT SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AGAIN WITH THE LATER EVENING STORMS...WITH THE WIND
THREAT CONTINGENT ON STORMS EVOLVING INTO A LINE.
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD.
THE COLD FRONT SPREADS IN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST WHICH
SHOULD EASE SHOWER/STORM THREAT OVERNIGHT. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL USHER IN A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
304 AM CDT
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
SFC RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD SAT
NGT INTO SUN...WITH A THERMAL TROUGH OF 6 TO 8 DEG C COVERING MUCH
OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER SAT NGT TEMPS
WILL FALL INTO THE UPR 40S TO LOW 50S. THEN SUN REMAIN SEASONAL ARND
70 TO THE LOW 70S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE TO LOOK
SEASONAL...WITH MINIMAL SPREAD BEING PROGGED BY ENSEMBLES WITH THE
500MB LONGWAVE PATTERN LIFTING THE GREAT LAKES TROUGH EAST AND
WEAKENING WITH WEAK HEIGHT INCREASES TOWARDS MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPR 40S TO MID 50S. CURRENTLY
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOESN/T ARRIVE UNTIL CLOSER TO THURS.
BEACHLER
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO FEED NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
TODAY...AND INTO TONIGHT. EARLY THIS MORNING SOME HEAVY RAIN HAS
FALLEN AS A RESULT OF OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-88 CORRIDOR. THIS MOIST AXIS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THIS SAME AREAS TODAY WITH A LULL IN THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
THRU THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AND COULD EASILY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAIN PRIOR TO
SUNSET...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TOWARDS THE MORE WIDESPREAD
AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARRIVING AFTER SUNSET THROUGH
MIDNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT HAVE ISSUED A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS...BUT MAINLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.
BEACHLER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 18Z...
* MVFR CIGS INTO THE EARLY AFTN.
* WIND SHIFT TO NE THIS AFTN.
* SCT SHRA AND TSRA PSBL THIS AFTN WITH LAKE BREEZE...MORE
WIDESPREAD TSRA AND SHRA EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
* IFR CIGS AND GUSTY NW WINDS LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
GUSTS ARND 25 KT.
* WINDS SHIFT TO NE ARND 10KT SATURDAY AFTN.
JEE
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...
A MESSY FORECAST IS UPON US. MVFR STRATUS IS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AND IS SLOWLY LIFTING. LATEST MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 ARE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL LOCATED FROM WAUKEGAN
TO YORKVILLE TO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA. EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND THEN
SHIFT NORTHEAST REACHING THE TERMINALS ARND 21Z.
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SLOWER SHIFT TO NE WINDS WITH WIND
SPEEDS ARND 7-8KT. DECIDED TO KEEP 9KT SINCE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
WERE SHOWING 10KT. PUSHED THE LAKE BREEZE TIMING BACK TO 21Z WHICH
IS SUPPORTED BY ALL LAKE FRONT BUOYS STILL SHOWING SOUTHWEST
WINDS.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS RACES OVER
NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING WHICH COULD
RESULT IN MVFR VSBY. EXPECTING IFR CIGS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW
AND PERSIST INTO THE MORNING WINDS WILL BEGIN TURNING TO SE EARLY
THIS AFTN AND KEEP VEERING TO NW AND GUSTING TO 25KT LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SKIES BECOME VFR AS THE LOWER CIGS SHIFT
EAST WITH THE LOW AND WINDS WILL BECOME NE ARND 10KT SATURDAY
AFTN.
JEE
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 18Z...
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN WHEN MVFR CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS AFTN AND IN
SHRA/TSRA ASSOCIATED WITH IT...LOW CONFIDENCE IN SEEING 10 KT.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
* MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN IFR CIGS.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF NE WINDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS.
JEE
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
* SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY/VFR.
* SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...DRY/VFR. EASTERLY WINDS/LAKE BREEZES.
&&
.MARINE...
303 AM...LOW PRESSURE NEAR JAMES BAY WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC TODAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THIS LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKES REGION TODAY AND
THEN STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS LOW WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT. AS THE LOW REACHES
LAKE HURON BY SATURDAY MORNING...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS TIGHT GRADIENT
COMBINED WITH COOLER AIR SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO APPROACH GALE FORCE SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW
CONTINUES NORTHEAST SATURDAY AND THE HIGH OVER THE PLAINS MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE CENTER OF THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...A WEAKER RIDGE WILL EXTEND TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ACROSS
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE AND EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE LAKE. CMS
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ILZ003-ILZ004-ILZ005-ILZ006-ILZ008-ILZ010-
ILZ011-ILZ012-ILZ013-ILZ014-ILZ019-ILZ020-ILZ021-ILZ022...7
PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM SATURDAY.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...LMZ740-LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745-LMZ777-
LMZ779...4 AM SATURDAY TO 1 PM SATURDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
309 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Deep moisture and pre-frontal warm air advection keeping a clean
warm sector in check this afternoon but still well over 1000 J/kg
of CAPE and decent shear to support severe thunderstorms. Front is
rather obvious on local radar imagery and looks to be out of the
forecast area shortly after sunset, so next few hours will be the
main severe weather concern for southeastern areas with hail and
wind still the main concerns. Weak surface low pushing northeast
through the area should allow for veering low level wind fields,
helping keep tornado potential low. Locations along and south of
I- 35 saw a few periods of heavy rains this morning and will still
be the main concern area for additional heavy rain and possible
flash flooding into the evening. Passing upper wave should result
in decreasing post-frontal forcing for decreasing potential or
elevated showers and drizzle early on. Low cloud trends are
challenging but will maintain some mention of fog in the northwest
with clearing and lightening winds likely toward dawn. Highs still
look to top around 70 for Saturday in light winds and some mid
cloud.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday NIGHT THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Rest of the weekend periods still looking quiet weather-wise with
surface high sinking in before pushing off to the east. A weak
upper wave Sunday strengthens a bit as it enters Kansas but still
too little forcing/dry air below for any precip mention.
Moisture levels increase into the mid week periods with the modest
southwest flow aloft developing though flow still remains weak this
far south. Still appears a weak front may sag south to near Kansas
Monday night into Tuesday, with indications of the weak upper wave
coming nearby around Thursday. With the mid/upper levels still
rather moist it`s hard to rule out precipitation in much of these
periods. Temps should average to be slightly above normal.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Elevated storms have moved east of the terminals and much of the
short range model guidance holds off on developing additional TS
until the front is south of the terminals. Based on Satellite and
a lack of towering CU along the front, this seems to make some
sense. So the main concern is the IFR stratus behind the front.
With some heating ahead of the front, am not sure CIGS will be
that low so have some MVFR CIGS moving in behind the front. Both
the NAM and RAP mix out the stratus this evening, but there may be
a chance the low clouds hold on through the night. Confidence in
this is low since there should be good dry air advection behind
the front so have followed the models lead and scattered out the
clouds.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 1 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ040-054>056-058-
059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1142 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE RAINFALL...MAINLY SPED UP THE TIMING OF RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED CAPE AXIS AT 725MB.
ALSO LOWERED CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY
YUMA COUNTY...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WATER
VAPOR. TIMING OUT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE HAS IT OVER
THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY 10 AM CT. HOWEVER DID
NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST YET SO
HAVE CHANCES RAIN CONTINUING AFTER 10 AM CT BUT DO HAVE THEM
DECLINING FASTER THAN BEFORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN NEBRASKA. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED SO FAR BUT HRRR SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO MID RANGE POPS. MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
STRATUS MAY LINGER UNTIL THEN PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN AREAS
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPLICATED BY REDEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. CLOUDS BURN
OFF AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH...SO REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FOR
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND TRAVELS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIDWEEK GENERATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90S DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. CURRENT WIND SPEEDS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON THEN DECLINE
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THROUGH THE NIGHT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KMCK BUT
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...JTL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Early this morning the cold front was roughly bisecting the CWA,
stretching from Alta Vista to Wamego to Hiawatha. The mid-level
trough was stretched across the northern Rockies, advancing into the
Northern Plains. Water vapor imagery showed a weak embedded wave
within the mid-level flow over southeast Kansas, which, combined
with the low-level jet axis, was helping to produce scattered
thunderstorms that were tracking northeastward into east central
Kansas. Short-range models show these scattered storms diminishing
across east central Kansas shortly after sunrise, with the focus for
additional showers and thunderstorms shifting northward to the
Nebraska/Kansas border as some enhanced lift is expected across that
area ahead of the advancing trough. While the best moisture and
lift with this morning activity may be focused in far southeast
Nebraska, there is some uncertainty still amongst the short-range
models with how far south into north central and northeast Kansas
this precipitation will develop. The coverage of this morning
activity certainly may have an impact on the potential for severe
storms this afternoon as there is uncertainty with regards to how
much the region will destabilize this morning into this afternoon.
However, there is the potential for several favorable conditions to
come together to support the development of some supercell
thunderstorms. Expect enhanced lift by this afternoon as you have
the cold front still stretched across eastern Kansas and the mid-
level trough sweeping across the Northern and Central Plains, which
will help to push this stalled system eastward out of the area by
this evening. In addition to ample lift in the low/mid levels,
models continue to show limited inhibition by early to mid afternoon
with CAPE values upwards of 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear
values of around 40kts. As a result, the primary threats will be
some damaging winds and large hail. However, it is worth noting
that 0-1km bulk shear and helicity values across far northeast
Kansas into northwest/far northern Missouri suggest that there is an
isolated tornado threat as well for a small window of time, likely
mid to late afternoon for far northeast Kansas. Also cannot rule
out the potential for some locally heavy rainfall from these storms
as PWAT values should be upwards of 1.7-1.9 inches with some
training storms possible as the low-level flow should be roughly
parallel to the exiting boundary. The main area of concern for some
localized flooding would be across far northeast Kansas where
upwards of 2-3 inches of rain fell last evening from thunderstorms.
The advancing trough will help to quickly push the front eastward
out of the area by early evening, with cooler, drier air quickly
surging into the area behind this system. With the placement of the
front and the potential for scattered morning precipitation, have
cooled high temperatures a bit for today with a decent spread
expected, ranging from around 70 in north central Kansas to the
middle 80s in east central Kansas. Expect dry conditions by the
overnight hours tonight and temperatures cooling into the upper 40s
to low 50s.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
The strong cold front will have pushed through the forecast area
by early Saturday morning with precipitation rapidly clearing out.
Strong high pressure will build toward the area and remnant low
level moisture may allow patchy fog to develop around sunrise on
Saturday in north central KS where winds will become light.
Temperatures will be much cooler through the weekend with highs
around 70 on Saturday and in the mid 70s on Sunday. Lows each
morning should be around 50...cooler in north central KS early
Saturday and cooler in eastern KS early Sunday given proximity to
the surface high pressure and heart of the cool airmass. By late
Sunday, short wave energy will move northwest to southeast across
the area. This will provide a fair amount of vertical motion
across the area but moisture will be lacking and have kept the
forecast dry at this time.
Weak upper ridging builds into the region for early next week with
an associated warming trend back well into the 80s for much of the
week. Monday night into Tuesday a weak front will sag into the
area and may provide a focus for a few storms. Otherwise the next
potential precipitation maker is in the form of a short wave
trough forecast to move from Southern California into the Central
Plains by Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Elevated storms have moved east of the terminals and much of the
short range model guidance holds off on developing additional TS
until the front is south of the terminals. Based on Satellite and
a lack of towering CU along the front, this seems to make some
sense. So the main concern is the IFR stratus behind the front.
With some heating ahead of the front, am not sure CIGS will be
that low so have some MVFR CIGS moving in behind the front. Both
the NAM and RAP mix out the stratus this evening, but there may be
a chance the low clouds hold on through the night. Confidence in
this is low since there should be good dry air advection behind
the front so have followed the models lead and scattered out the
clouds.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight for KSZ026-037>040-
054>056-058-059.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ011-012-
024.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Barjenbruch
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
633 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
UPDATED FORECAST FOR TODAY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND MODEL
DATA. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THE GENERAL TREND OF
THE RAINFALL...MAINLY SPED UP THE TIMING OF RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA BASED ON THE LOCATION OF THE ELEVATED CAPE AXIS AT 725MB.
ALSO LOWERED CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST...PARTICULARLY
YUMA COUNTY...DUE TO SUBSIDENCE MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WATER
VAPOR. TIMING OUT THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE SUBSIDENCE HAS IT OVER
THE EASTERN BORDER OF THE TRI-STATE AREA BY 10 AM CT. HOWEVER DID
NOT WANT TO DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST YET SO
HAVE CHANCES RAIN CONTINUING AFTER 10 AM CT BUT DO HAVE THEM
DECLINING FASTER THAN BEFORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN NEBRASKA. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED SO FAR BUT HRRR SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO MID RANGE POPS. MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
STRATUS MAY LINGER UNTIL THEN PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN AREAS
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPLICATED BY REDEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. CLOUDS BURN
OFF AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH...SO REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FOR
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND TRAVELS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIDWEEK GENERATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90S DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
KMCK THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD DROP TO IFR BEFORE CEILINGS
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...EXPECTING STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
519 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN NEBRASKA. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED SO FAR BUT HRRR SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO MID RANGE POPS. MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
STRATUS MAY LINGER UNTIL THEN PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN AREAS
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPLICATED BY REDEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. CLOUDS BURN
OFF AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH...SO REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FOR
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND TRAVELS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIDWEEK GENERATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90S DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 516 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT
KMCK THROUGH THE MORNING. LOW CEILINGS WILL IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE. FLIGHT CATEGORIES COULD DROP TO IFR BEFORE CEILINGS
SCATTER OUT THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT...EXPECTING STRATUS AND PATCHY
FOG TO REDEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH FLIGHT CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
257 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN NEBRASKA. STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED SO FAR BUT HRRR SHOWS
REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH BY 12Z SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY
SLIGHT TO MID RANGE POPS. MUCAPE GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG SO
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SMALL HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
STRATUS MAY LINGER UNTIL THEN PARTICULARLY IN EASTERN AREAS
LEADING TO A LOW CONFIDENCE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
SIMILARLY...LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT COMPLICATED BY REDEVELOPMENT
OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG...BUT WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY BE ABLE TO
DROP TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S BEFORE SATURATION OCCURS. CLOUDS BURN
OFF AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MIDDLE 70S. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WEAKER AND FURTHER NORTH...SO REDUCED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN BEHIND IT FOR
SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO THE LOWER 80S UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
A DRY START TO THE WORK WEEK IS EXPECTED AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LEE TROUGH
REDEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. THIS SETUP WILL BRING DRIER
CONDITIONS TO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION PRESENTS ITSELF WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUESDAY
NIGHT AND TRAVELS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE REGION. THE
TROUGH APPEARS TO WEAKEN BUT IT LOOKS LIKE MULTIPLE DISTURBANCES
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW MIDWEEK GENERATING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AREA.
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90S DEGREES AND LOWS IN THE
MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM MDT THU SEP 17 2015
CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN IN WIDESPREAD STRATUS THIS MORNING. LATEST
TRENDS IN RUC...NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE INDICATE AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS. LOCAL CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THIS PATTERN IS FAVORABLE
FOR IFR CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...FORECAST IFR CEILINGS. IN
ADDITION...ADDED VCTS AT KMCK AS TRENDS INDICATE ELEVATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. IN FACT...ACCUS MAY BE DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AS OF RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. ALL STORMS
SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY MID-MORNING. STRATUS WILL BE SLOWER TO
LEAVE WITH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED.
MOISTURE SUPPLY IS AMPLE AS LOW LEVEL JET FEEDS MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. THEREFORE...STRATUS SLOWLY BURNS OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST. STRATUS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AT KMCK SO
EXTENDED PREVAILING STRATUS/POOR CONDITIONS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...RRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
928 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS. COASTAL PLAIN FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL. COOLER AIR AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...THEY WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVERHEAD
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR NOW AS PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS
WAY TOWARDS NH AND MAINE. LATEST HRRR HAS THE RAIN ARRIVING AROUND
03-04Z OR 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT IN NH AND 05-06Z IN THE MAINE
MOUNTAINS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS HAS SPREAD TO COVER MOST OF
WESTERN MAINE EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS AND JUST ALONG THE
NH/ME BORDER. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE ANY FARTHER NORTH
DUE TO HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR
TONIGHT.
&&
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE COAST /CUMULUS MIXED WITH STRATUS/ HAS BEEN
ERODING SOMEWHAT MAKING CEILINGS IN THIS AREA UNPREDICTABLE.
EXTENT OF OFFSHORE STRATUS HAS MOVED ONSHORE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION WILL
CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT
IN THE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MIDCOAST AND CAPITAL DISTRICTS. MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR
THIS UPDATE INCLUDING CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE SO ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW GOOD HEATING TO OCCUR IN SPITE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALLOW THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WARM INTO
THE 70S ALONG WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NORTHERN AREAS STAY IN
THE MID 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THIS EVENING...
SO EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE FOG
BEGINS TO FORM. COASTAL AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM. THE PATTERN OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MEANS LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH VALLEY
FOG. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY...BUT MAY SPILL A
FEW CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OCEAN STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING AND BRING LIFR CONDITIONS TO ROCKLAND... PORTLAND... AND
AUGUSTA AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BUT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
MAY NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRYING BEGINS. ALTHOUGH FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS TONIGHT IT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO INITIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH FOG
LIKELY IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN VALLEY
FOG EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT OR SO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME 5 FOOT
SWELLS COULD AFFECT THE WATERS TOWARD MIDWEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HANES
SHORT TERM...KIMBLE
LONG TERM...EKSTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
605 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM REVOLVES AROUND RAIN CHANCES WITH
UPPER WAVE MOVING THROUGH WYOMING THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS WAVE AND ITS ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALY TRACKING
ACROSS SRN MN THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH THIS WAVE WILL PACK A PRETTY
STRONG PUNCH...AS EVIDENCE BY A BETTER THAN 10 UNIT PV
ANOMALY...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING A RATHER DRY ANTECEDENT AIRMASS
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH LAST
NIGHT...WHICH AT 3 AM WAS STRETCHED OUT FROM NW MO...TO THE QUAD
CITIES AND UP TOWARD MARQUETTE MICHIGAN. IT IS THIS DRY AIR THAT
IS LEADING TO A BIT OF SPREAD IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN WE
WILL SEE.
FIRST...THE BULK OF THE RAIN WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL OFF
TO OUR SE OUT AHEAD OF A 50 KT LLJ THAT WILL GO FROM MO TOWARD
LOWER MICHIGAN. FOR US...THERE WILL BE TWO PIECES OF FORCING THAT
WILL TRY TO GENERATE PRECIP. ONE WILL BE A BAND OF FGEN IN THE
H7-H6 LAYER. THIS BIT OF FORCING CAN BE SEEN IN THE BAND OF
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SE WYOMING TO WHERE THE MO RIVER MEETS THE
SD/NEB BORDER. FOLLOWING THE RAP/NAM...THIS BAND WILL TRACK ENE TO
THE NORTH OF A SFC LOW THAT WILL GO UP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...GOING FROM ROUGHLY FAIRMONT TO EAU CLAIRE. THE SECOND
BATCH OF FORCING IS BEING FORCED BY THE PV ANOMALY AND IS WHAT IS
FORCING THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ND/SD BORDER. THIS
FEATURE AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BASICALLY MOVE DUE EAST AND IS WHAT
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN TO JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA.
FOR POPS...SLOWED DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF RAIN THIS MORNING QUITE A
BIT...WITH THE CAMS THAT DO SHOW PRECIP REACHING THE GROUND NOT
SHOWING IT DOING SO ANYWHERE IN THE MPX CWA UNTIL CLOSE TO 18Z.
THIS WAVE WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH THAT BY ABOUT THE TIME THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MOIST ENOUGH TO ALLOW RAIN TO HIT THE GROUND...
THE FORCING WILL BE ON ITS WAY OUT. AS RESULT...EXPECT MOST PLACES
TO SEE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN EXPECTED TO FALL WITH THE H7-H6 FGEN BAND FROM FAIRMONT TO
EAU CLAIRE...BUT EVEN THERE AMOUNTS WILL BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.
FOR HIGHS...WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED...FAVORED THEM
TOWARD THE COOLER CONSENSUS RAW MODEL NUMBERS...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN
THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN IF THAT SRN FGEN BAND
CAN SETUP AND BECOME DOMINATE. FOR TONIGHT...SKIES WILL QUICKLY
CLEAR OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE PV ANOMALY...WITH TEMPERATURES
QUICKLY FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S/50S LIKE WE SAW THIS PAST
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WILL SLOWLY LUMBER ACROSS
THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PRIMARILY PREVENT
PRECIPITATION FROM OCCURRING...DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE
UPR LVL TROF ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON SATURDAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...POSSIBLY SOME VIRGA...BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN RETURN ON
MONDAY AS A ZONAL FLOW RESUMES. A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE
AS HIGHS CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S AND INTO THE LOW 70S.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LONGWAVE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE BUILDING
OUT OF THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY TUE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF TO THE E
WHILE A LONGWAVE TROF MOVES ONSHORE THE W COAST. THIS WILL HELP
DEVELOP A WELL-ORGANIZED LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE ROCKIES WED THAT
WILL SHIFT INTO THE N-CENTRAL CONUS THU. A LEADING WARM FRONT WILL
EXTEND INTO THE UPR MISS RIVER VALLEY MIDWEEK...WHILE WEAK LOW
PRES CENTERS RIDE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...MAKING FOR
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FOR LATE TUE THRU
THU WHILE THE MAIN SYSTEM REMAINS TO THE W OF THE AREA. THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUD/RAIN COMPLICATIONS WILL REDUCE TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IS EXPECTED THRU
MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
GIVEN CURRENT RADAR ACROSS SODAK/NEB...HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST WHAT
THE HRRR AND HOPWRF ARE SHOWING WITH LIGHT RAIN MOVING ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING
MOVES ACROSS SRN MN. AS RESULT...ADDED A SHRA MENTION TO ALL
TERMINALS...THOUGH VFR CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS RAIN. BEHIND
THE UPPER WAVE...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT...WITH WINDS STAYING UP
ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
KMSP...RAIN ALREADY MOVING INTO FSD AND THE HRRR SHOWS THIS FINGER
OF FORCING WORKING UP TOWARD MSP THIS MORNING. IT WILL BE BATTLING
DRY AIR...BUT SEEING ENOUGH MODELS PUSHING RAIN INTO/NEAR MSP BY
18Z TO WARRANT MOVING UP THE SHRA MENTION. WILL LIKELY SEE SEVERAL
HOURS WITH ON AND OFF LIGHT RAIN...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CIG/VIS WILL REMAIN VFR GIVEN HOW DRY THE CURRENT AIRMASS IS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WIND W 6-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WIND SSW 12-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. WIND SSW 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
311 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Complicated forecast shaping up for the remainder of this afternoon
and evening as long advertised front slowly works through the area.
At 3 PM...regional radars showed a clearly defined fine line slowly
working south through northwest Missouri and northeast
Kansas...indicative of the current position of the boundary in
question. As expected...sfc low across east-central Kansas continues
to slowly lift northeastward along the boundary...with plenty of pre-
frontal precipitation prevailing over the fcst region this afternoon.
Looking aloft...afternoon water vapor imagery showing a nicely
defined neutrally tilted trough axis digging through the Central
Plains...with a mid-level jetstreak extending from east-central
Colorado northeastward into south-central Nebraska. Forcing for
ascent will continue to increase through the late afternoon/early
evening as aforementioned wave approaches...but morning and early
afternoon convection has certainly thrown a monkey wrench into
today/s forecast.
Latest visible satellite images finally showing some clearing in
advance of the boundary this afternoon...and latest MLCAPE estimates
from the SPC meso page are responding accordingly. Quick look at the
GOES 7.4 micron channel shows leading edge of a secondary EML plume
advancing east through west-central Kansas this afternoon...with new
convection beginning to develop southwest of Topeka right ahead of
the front. In the time its taken to write this much of the
AFD...we/ve gone from little hope for severe to renewed optimism
that things may in fact get going. That said...latest HRRR appears
to be taking into account the partial clearing with decreased
surface inhibition and now shows convection working through the KC
Metro during the evening rush hour. As a result...all hope does is not
lost as of right now anyways. If convection can in fact become
organized /and there/s plenty of deep layer shear to support this/
large hail and damaging winds will be possible...especially if
surface based inhibition erodes accordingly. Additionally...bulk
shear vector orientation normal to the linear line of forcing will
support supercell structures with eventual progression into linear
segments as convection is able to congeal after sunset. Again...this
scenario is only of marginal confidence at this point...and the next
few hours will be telling on what is actually able to get
organized...if anything.
Additionally...concerns for heavy rainfall continue this afternoon as
an axis of anomalously high PWAT values (> 1.7") remains entrenched
across the fcst area. Combine this with the most recent images from
the experimental layered PW satellite product from Colorado State
which shows converging subtropical and northern stream moisture
plumes over the Lwr Missouri Vly...organized rainfall should have
little problem producing heavy rainfall rates across the area.
Considering the amount of uncertainty with the going forecast this
afternoon...will go ahead and leave the current flash flood watch in
place until clearing begins to occur from west to east later tonight.
Front to plow through the region overnight with precip quickly coming
to an end after 6z or so. Dry air will quickly move in by Saturday
morning as high pressure builds south across the Central
Plains/upper Miss Rvr Vly. As cold air infiltrates the
area...afternoon highs tomorrow afternoon will struggle to make it
out of the upper 60s. Slightly warmer temps are expected on
Sunday...with highs likely warming into the lower to middle 70s
across most locations. Warming trend will commence early next week as
southerly flow returns to the area.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Upper-level ridging will then build from the Southern Plains and
extend into the Central Plains. Pressure falls over west central
Kansas, however, will pull in warm and moist air by the mid to latter
half of the week. An advancing shortwave trough should provide enough
lift within this region to produce some precipitation within the warm
sector of the low center by the late week. With no distinguishable
boundary in place, any activity that does develop should remain
relatively light. Continued southerly flow in place will push
afternoon highs slightly above average before returning to normal by
the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
Difficult fcst as convection remains prevalent across the area this
afternoon. Initial round of activity currently moving through area
terminals...with another round expected later this afternoon as main
front starts to move through the area. At worst...this initial round
may lead to tempo MVFR conditions. Of more concern however will be
the possibility of developing IFR cigs following the passage of the
the second round later this afternoon/evening. Although of only
marginal confidence ...have inserted a secondary tempo group after
21z to account for low CIGS and secondary convection possibilities.
As always...will make adjustments as needed. Precip chances look to
quickly decrease after 3z as front departs to the east.
Low cigs to hang on for much of the night before skies begin to clear
after 14z Saturday morning.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning for MOZ001>008-
011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...32
LONG TERM...Welsh
AVIATION...32
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
925 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING BASED ON
RADAR...SATELLITE AND MODEL TRENDS. WATER VAPOR SHOWED THE STRONG
VORTICITY MOVING E OUT OF NE WY...AND IR SHOWED WARMING CLOUD
TOPS OVER SE MT. RADARS SHOWED SHOWERS CONFINED TO EXTREME SE MT
MOVING E. WRF AND HRRR HAD PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT BY 18Z...SO
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THESE TRENDS. MESOANALYSIS SHOWED
STABLE AIR OVER THE SE...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY THUNDER. ADJUSTED
SKY COVER TO REFLECT LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND ADJUSTED
AFTERNOON SKY COVER TO REFLECT SOME CLOUD COVER MOVING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE W AS A COUPLE OF WEAK PACIFIC WAVES MOVE INTO THE
AREA. REMOVED MORNING FOG. MADE SMALL WIND ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONS. IT MAY BE A LITTLE BREEZY AT TIMES
TODAY...BUT IN GENERAL WINDS ALOFT WERE NOT OVERLY STRONG.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE. REMAINDER OF SHORT-TERM PERIOD
CONTINUED TO LOOK DRY. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
SHOWERS SET TO LINGER IN SE CORNER OF MONTANA AND POSSIBLY BACK
INTO THE BIG HORNS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
E/SE WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER SYSTEM. DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE
SOMEWHAT NARROW EARLY THIS MORNING...SO WILL PLACE SOME PATCHY FOG
IN THE MORNING PERIOD FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL
THEN PREVAIL TODAY ALTERNATING WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH AGAIN
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THIS NEXT TROUGH DOES NOT HAVE
MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND TRACKS FURTHER NORTH. THERE ARE NOT
ANY PROGGS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WHICH SUPPORTS OUR
THOUGHTS OF A DRY SYSTEM. SO WILL KEEP POPS AT ZERO FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY. DESPITE THE ALTERNATING SHORT WAVE
RIDGES/TROUGHS...TEMPERATURE PROGGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A MODEST
WARMING TREND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND. SO NO BIG CHANGES IN
THIS REGARD FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS.
ZONAL FLOW RETURNS FOR SAT NIGHT RESULTING IN LEE-SIDE TROUGHING.
THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS WAY NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES
NOT LOOK VERY STRONG. OUR LOCAL WIND TOOLS ARE NOT INDICATING ANY
RISK OF ADVISORY LEVEL GAP WINDS AT KLVM AND NYE. THUS...BACKED
OFF A BIT ON WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOOTHILLS. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE INHERITED EXTENDED FORECAST ONCE AGAIN
THIS MORNING...AS MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
THE PERIOD BEGINS SUNDAY...WITH A LITTLE SHORTWAVE RIDGING
CROSSING THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF DEVELOPING ZONAL FLOW.
THEREFORE...RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR SUNDAY. RELATIVELY FAST
ZONAL FLOW BEGINS TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. THERE ARE SEVERAL
WAVES OF PACIFIC ENERGY CROSSING THIS FLOW...BUT THE MAJORITY OF
IT APPEARS TO STAY NORTH OF THE CWA...RESULTING A WARM AND DRY
DOWNSLOPE PATTERN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK. THE BEST
POTENTIAL DURING THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW SWING A WEAK COLD FRONT A LITTLE
DEEPER INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN SOME
ISOLATE SHOWER POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE REGION.
COLD FRONT DOES NOT APPEAR TO AFFECT TEMPS MUCH...BUT DOES USHER
IN THE RETURN OF SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE REGION AND SHALLOW
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE DAKOTAS. THE DEPTH OF THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THE
MODELS...WHICH WILL DETERMINE IF A SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
REACHES THE REGION FROM THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA AREA OR NOT. THE
ECMWF IS CURRENT LOOKING MORE FAVORABLY OF THE DISTURBANCE GETTING
INTO THE REGION. HAVE CARRIED ON WITH SLIGHT POPS FOR
THURSDAY...AND INTRODUCED SLIGHT POPS FOR FRIDAY...AS MORE ENERGY
AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED ACROSS
THE REGION. IF THIS SYSTEM DOES GET INTO THE REGION...A MUCH MORE
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT WOULD BE POSSIBLE. AAG &&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. DRY AIR COMING INTO THE REGION WILL BRING CLEARING FORM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY. AAG/REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 068 045/074 048/081 053/078 049/078 053/078 052/078
0/B 00/B 00/B 01/U 21/B 11/B 12/T
LVM 064 038/069 042/078 046/076 044/077 047/078 047/077
0/B 00/N 01/N 01/N 21/B 11/B 12/T
HDN 070 042/076 044/083 048/080 047/081 050/080 049/080
0/B 00/B 00/U 01/U 11/B 12/W 12/T
MLS 070 047/075 047/083 053/080 049/080 052/079 052/080
0/B 00/B 00/U 01/U 21/B 12/W 12/T
4BQ 067 045/074 046/081 050/081 050/081 052/080 051/080
2/W 00/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/T 12/T
BHK 067 044/073 046/081 051/079 047/075 050/077 050/077
0/B 00/B 00/U 01/U 11/N 12/W 12/T
SHR 066 039/073 041/081 045/081 045/081 048/080 048/081
0/B 00/B 00/U 01/U 11/U 12/W 12/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1240 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/COVERAGE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. A JET MAX OF 80-90 KNOTS AT 300 MB WAS OVER WY AND CO
LIFTING NORTHEAST. BEST 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO CANADA...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WAS STILL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB HAD
FLATTENED A BIT...AND EXTENDED FROM SRN NM INTO CNTRL MO. 850 MB
SHOWED HIGH PRES OVER THE DKTS AND N WINDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WITH CDFNT CURVING FROM WRN WI INTO NERN KS THEN BACK INTO ERN CO.
SFC ANLYS AT 08Z SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PCPN
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS MORNING. PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
OUR ERN AND SRN COUNTIES INTO MID AFTN. WILL MENTION AT LEAST
ISOLD TSTMS EVEN INTO PARTS OF NERN NE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MUCH OF THE DAY. USED SPC SREF MU CAPE OF 500 J/KG OR MORE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS TO HELP DETERMINE AREA WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL.
RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS SEEM REASONABLE WITH PCPN COVERAGE
AND TIMING. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...GENERALLY MID OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 70S PSBL IN
THE S. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN COULD MOVE OUT OF
CNTRL NE/CNTRL SD INTO PARTS OF NERN NE BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. QUESTION THEN BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST...SO FOG POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR OVERLY HIGH. BUT...WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS. NAM IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUDS IN...
BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE NAM OUTPUT AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN DROP
OFF A BIT TOWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...THEN EXTEND FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION BUT ARE BEGINNING TO
WANE ACROSS NEBRASKA. ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL NOT IMPACT
THE THREE TAF SITES. THAT SAID EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT RAIN AT ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THEREAFTER. WINDS MAY BE VARIABLE DIRECTION-WISE AS THUNDERSTORMS
PUSH EAST BUT SHOULD VEER BACK TO NORTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...PEARSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
623 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/COVERAGE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. A JET MAX OF 80-90 KNOTS AT 300 MB WAS OVER WY AND CO
LIFTING NORTHEAST. BEST 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO CANADA...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WAS STILL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB HAD
FLATTENED A BIT...AND EXTENDED FROM SRN NM INTO CNTRL MO. 850 MB
SHOWED HIGH PRES OVER THE DKTS AND N WINDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WITH CDFNT CURVING FROM WRN WI INTO NERN KS THEN BACK INTO ERN CO.
SFC ANLYS AT 08Z SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PCPN
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS MORNING. PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
OUR ERN AND SRN COUNTIES INTO MID AFTN. WILL MENTION AT LEAST
ISOLD TSTMS EVEN INTO PARTS OF NERN NE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MUCH OF THE DAY. USED SPC SREF MU CAPE OF 500 J/KG OR MORE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS TO HELP DETERMINE AREA WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL.
RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS SEEM REASONABLE WITH PCPN COVERAGE
AND TIMING. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...GENERALLY MID OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 70S PSBL IN
THE S. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN COULD MOVE OUT OF
CNTRL NE/CNTRL SD INTO PARTS OF NERN NE BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. QUESTION THEN BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST...SO FOG POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR OVERLY HIGH. BUT...WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS. NAM IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUDS IN...
BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE NAM OUTPUT AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN DROP
OFF A BIT TOWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...THEN EXTEND FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
RA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS MRNG FOR THE KOMA/KLNK TERMINALS.
THE RA WILL LIKELY STAY TO THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE KOFK TAF
SITE...BUT WILL INCLUDE A VC MENTION. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF A
COUPLE HOURS OF THUNDER IN BOTH KLNK AND KOMA AS THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH THIS MRNG. WE MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISBY IN THE
TSRA...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A BKN-
OVC MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK. THE RA WILL MOV OUT BY MID AFTN WITH
SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS EVENING. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN HOW
CLEAR SKIES WILL BECOME OVERNIGHT SO WILL LEAVE IN A SCT DECK FOR
NOW. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MRNG WILL BECOME NORTHWEST THIS AFTN AS
THE STORM SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR EAST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES/COVERAGE TODAY INTO
THIS EVENING...POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND OR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT
AND TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAIN FEATURES FROM UPPER LEVEL CHARTS LAST EVENING INCLUDED THE
FOLLOWING. A JET MAX OF 80-90 KNOTS AT 300 MB WAS OVER WY AND CO
LIFTING NORTHEAST. BEST 12 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB WERE OVER
THE NRN PLAINS AND LIFTING INTO CANADA...BUT THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS
WAS STILL BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. THERMAL RIDGE AT 700 MB HAD
FLATTENED A BIT...AND EXTENDED FROM SRN NM INTO CNTRL MO. 850 MB
SHOWED HIGH PRES OVER THE DKTS AND N WINDS OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS
WITH CDFNT CURVING FROM WRN WI INTO NERN KS THEN BACK INTO ERN CO.
SFC ANLYS AT 08Z SHOWED TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S ACROSS OUR NRN
ZONES AND UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S NEAR THE KS AND MO BORDERS.
SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING PCPN
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS MORNING. PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHEST ACROSS
OUR ERN AND SRN COUNTIES INTO MID AFTN. WILL MENTION AT LEAST
ISOLD TSTMS EVEN INTO PARTS OF NERN NE WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY
MUCH OF THE DAY. USED SPC SREF MU CAPE OF 500 J/KG OR MORE AND
FCST SOUNDINGS TO HELP DETERMINE AREA WITH THUNDER POTENTIAL.
RECENT EXPERIMENTAL HRRR RUNS SEEM REASONABLE WITH PCPN COVERAGE
AND TIMING. WILL STAY FAIRLY CLOSE TO MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY...GENERALLY MID OR UPPER 60S...BUT SOME LOWER 70S PSBL IN
THE S. MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING EAST OUT OF OUR AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT AN AREA OF LIGHT PCPN COULD MOVE OUT OF
CNTRL NE/CNTRL SD INTO PARTS OF NERN NE BEFORE ENDING EARLY THIS
EVENING. QUESTION THEN BECOMES...HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR.
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS MODEST...SO FOG POTENTIAL DOES NOT
APPEAR OVERLY HIGH. BUT...WE MAY SEE SOME STRATUS. NAM IS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS TONIGHT. KEPT SOME CLOUDS IN...
BUT DID NOT COMPLETELY BUY INTO THE NAM OUTPUT AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY MAINLY
IN THE UPPER 60S AND HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
TEMPERATURES SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH MID WEEK...THEN DROP
OFF A BIT TOWARD THURSDAY/FRIDAY. A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EAST FROM THE ROCKIES...THEN EXTEND FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES REGION BY THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THEN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN OR SHOWERS KOMA AND KLNK AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. KOFK EXPECTED TO SEE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1131 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY REGION
TODAY. SUBJECTIVE 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL US...WITH TROUGH
AXIS FROM OR THROUGH NV/CA...AND WITH NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR
THE AB/SASK BORDER TO MT. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UP TO 50M WERE NOTED
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL US. 850MB COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE ONT/MB
BORDER THROUGH THE ND/MN AND SD/MN BORDER...INTO CENTRAL TO
SOUTHWEST NEB. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AIRMASS WAS MOISTURE
RICH...WITH DEWPOINTS OF 12C+ FROM THE MO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES...AND WITH 40-50KT WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. 700-500MB
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WAS MAXIMIZED OVER NEB...AT THE NOSE OF THE
700MB THERMAL RIDGE. SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 19Z EXTENDED FROM
SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN ONT...THROUGH CENTRAL MM...TO NEAR KDNS...TO
KOMA...TO SECONDARY SURFACE LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL KS. ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...CU FIELD HAD DEVELOPED...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. BEHIND IT...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 50S WITH
QUICKLY CLEARING SKIES.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW. FRONT CONTINUES TO
ADVANCE THROUGH THE CWA. AHEAD OF IT...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOT YET IMMINENT AS CU FIELD IS
VISUALLY SHALLOW WITH NO ECHOES YET ON RADAR. RAP ANALYSIS
INDICATES ABOUT 3000 J/KG UNCAPPED MLCAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
MOST OF THE BULK SHEAR IS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THAT
INSTABILITY...ANY STORMS THAT POP UP COULD BECOME BRIEFLY
SEVERE...BUT THINK THEY MAY BE ON THE PULSY SIDE GIVEN THE
MISALIGNED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. FRONT IS MAKING FAIRLY RAPID
PROGRESS...AND HAVE SPED THE EXIT OF STORMS IN THE SOUTH AND LOWERED
POPS IN ALL BUT THE SOUTHERNMOST/SOUTHEASTERNMOST FRINGE OF THE CWA
FOR THIS EVENING.
FROM EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
ADVANCES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND TOWARD THE PLAINS...WITH
LEE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING AND SLIDING ACROSS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH KS AND INTO NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA. MOST OF THE CWA WILL
BE WELL NORTH OF THE LOW...AND AS BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE NORTHERN
SIDE DEVELOPS AND RAIN DEVELOPS/EXPANDS...THINK WE MAINLY WILL SEE
JUST DREARY RAIN AND PERHAPS A LITTLE EMBEDDED THUNDER...WITH A
COUPLE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA IF
ANYWHERE. RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE AREA RAIN-FREE BY AROUND 00Z.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF THE SYSTEM AND INFLUENCE
THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH QUIET AND COOLER WEATHER FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES MODERATE TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY.
RETURN FLOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT MAY SPARK A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS IN
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEB ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL STAY WEST OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
RETURN FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE PLAINS INTO THE WORK WEEK...WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY AND
BRINGING MODERATING TEMPERATURES...BEFORE GIVING WAY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS IT FLATTENS. AROUND WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THE NEXT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL
BRING A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. FRONT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A STRONG COLD PUSH THOUGH...AND NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 12Z WITH PERSISTENT
RAIN OR SHOWERS KOMA AND KLNK AND CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z BEFORE
IMPROVING TO VFR AS SFC LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
OVER KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. KOFK EXPECTED TO SEE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS AFTER 15Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MAYES
LONG TERM...MAYES
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 PM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. COOLER
AIR WILL PUSH IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER FAR WEST TEXAS WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH INTO NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF 18Z NAM12 MODEL FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON. SFC OBS AND RADAR SUGGESTING THE FRONT IS NEAR A
WAGON MOUND TO SAN JON LINE...HEADING SWWD. FRONT EXPECTED TO
MAKE THE TYPICAL SURGE SOUTH AND WEST AFTER SUNSET. EAST WINDS
WILL LIKELY BREAK THROUGH GLORIETA PASS AND TIJERAS CANYON JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EAST CANYON WINDS INTO THE ABQ METRO AREA ARE
FORECAST TO BE IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 45
MPH POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM FROM TIJERAS CANYON. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP SOUTH OF I-40...WEST OF ABO PASS AS WELL AS BONADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. BOTH GFS AND NAM ARE NOT ONLY HIGHLY STABLE
BEHIND THE FRONT BUT KEEP A VERY DRY WLY FLOW ABOVE ABOUT 650MB IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL COMBINE
WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
FOUR CORNERS HIGH PROGGED TO REBUILD OVER WEST-CENTRAL NM/ERN AZ
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A DRY NORTH TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
AREA. THIS FLOW WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR MORE THAN A FEW
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE FAR SRN/SWRN PORTIONS OF
CATRON...LINCOLN AND CHAVES COUNTIES SUNDAY. DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
MODELS STILL ON TRACK FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SLY FLOW ALOFT
BETWEEN CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF NRN BAJA AND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH
..WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED SEWD OVER FAR W TX. MODELS STILL
SUGGESTING DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM INTO SW
NM LATE-DAY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. ECMWF ABOUT 12 HOURS SLOWER
WITH THE MOISTURE SURGE BUT HAS A VERY SIMILAR PATTERN SET UP. GFS
AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHOWERS AND STORMS HANG AROUND
THROUGH MID-WEEK BEFORE DRY WESTERLIES MOVE IN AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER THE PACNW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY ARE SHOWING EVIDENCE OF THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INVADING THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. EXPECT BREEZY TO
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS ACROSS
THE EXTREME EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...TO FOLLOW AS THE
FRONT HEADS TOWARD THE RGV. OTHERWISE...ANY SHOWER CHANCES COULD
FAVOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD CENTRAL AND EAST.
GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL START INCREASING AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL FALL BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AS MIN
RH VALUES INCREASE EAST TO WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.
SHOWER CHANCES COULD FORM ALONG THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH FOCUS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE. MEANWHILE...EAST GAP WINDS COULD
REACH 35 TO 45 MPH WITHIN THE RGV EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING
DOWN AND WASHING OUT BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE AFTERNOON.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SUNDAY AS THEY CREEP BACK TO NEAR
AND ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE WHERE SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN. MIN RH
VALUES AND DEWPOINTS WILL DOWNTREND ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
BY MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC HEADING NORTHEASTWARD...FOLLOWING UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER TEXAS AND OLD MEXICO...HELPING TO USHER IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THE ONLY MODEL DIFFERENCE FOR MONDAY IS THAT MOISTURE
LEVELS ARE HIGHER ACROSS THE WEST IN GFS THAN THE EURO MODEL. BY
TUESDAY...GFS HAS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TRAVELING
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...INCREASING SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE WHILE THE
EURO MODEL HAS SOME SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ARRIVING A BIT LATER THAN THE
GFS. BY MIDWEEK...GFS HAS PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHILE THE EURO MODEL HAS PRECIPITATION MORE
WIDESPREAD.
VENT RATES WILL BECOME POOR CENTRAL AND EAST WHILE IMPROVING NORTH
AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON SATURDAY...THEN BECOMING POOR
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH IMPROVEMENTS NORTH AND
EAST ON SUNDAY. RATES WILL BECOME GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN THE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED IN
ACTIVITY...MAINLY FAVORING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW
AROUND 23Z BECAUSE OF HRRR MODELS INDICATING SH ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA. COULD EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TOWARD THE RGV LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY EAST...NORTHEAST WINDS WITH IT.
GAP WINDS COULD REACH NEAR AWW CRITERIA FOR KABQ EARLY SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 46 85 46 86 / 0 0 0 0
DULCE........................... 29 77 32 79 / 0 5 0 0
CUBA............................ 47 73 46 77 / 5 5 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 39 84 42 85 / 0 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 40 76 40 78 / 10 5 10 5
GRANTS.......................... 42 80 40 82 / 10 5 5 0
QUEMADO......................... 49 79 52 79 / 5 20 10 20
GLENWOOD........................ 52 80 53 79 / 5 20 10 30
CHAMA........................... 39 70 41 73 / 0 5 0 0
LOS ALAMOS...................... 54 75 53 79 / 5 10 10 5
PECOS........................... 50 69 52 76 / 10 10 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 47 73 46 76 / 5 0 5 0
RED RIVER....................... 41 64 42 67 / 10 5 5 0
ANGEL FIRE...................... 46 64 48 68 / 10 10 5 5
TAOS............................ 43 76 42 81 / 5 0 5 0
MORA............................ 47 67 48 75 / 10 10 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 48 82 47 85 / 0 0 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 53 75 54 80 / 5 0 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 52 78 51 83 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 79 60 85 / 5 5 10 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 62 81 61 86 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 58 83 58 88 / 5 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 59 82 58 87 / 5 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 54 86 54 89 / 5 0 5 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 82 58 87 / 5 0 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 60 87 59 90 / 10 0 10 5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 52 73 53 81 / 5 10 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 56 75 56 83 / 5 10 10 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 52 74 43 83 / 10 10 5 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 69 52 80 / 10 10 5 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 53 75 55 80 / 10 10 10 5
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 79 57 82 / 10 20 10 10
RUIDOSO......................... 52 68 54 74 / 10 40 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 48 69 50 78 / 10 5 5 0
RATON........................... 50 77 49 85 / 10 5 0 0
SPRINGER........................ 50 77 49 85 / 10 5 0 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 48 71 48 83 / 10 10 5 5
CLAYTON......................... 51 73 55 86 / 10 5 5 5
ROY............................. 50 71 52 84 / 10 5 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 58 80 58 91 / 5 5 5 5
SANTA ROSA...................... 57 79 58 89 / 5 5 5 5
TUCUMCARI....................... 58 78 59 92 / 10 5 5 5
CLOVIS.......................... 58 74 58 87 / 10 10 5 5
PORTALES........................ 60 75 61 86 / 10 10 10 5
FORT SUMNER..................... 61 77 60 88 / 5 10 5 5
ROSWELL......................... 63 82 63 90 / 10 20 10 5
PICACHO......................... 59 76 57 84 / 10 20 20 20
ELK............................. 57 67 57 75 / 10 20 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
33
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIMITED IN
ACTIVITY...MAINLY FAVORING THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW
AROUND 23Z BECAUSE OF HRRR MODELS INDICATING SH ACTIVITY IN THE
AREA. COULD EXPECT GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WITH ANY STORMS.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF BREEZY TO GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS TOWARD THE RGV LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING GUSTY EAST...NORTHEAST WINDS WITH IT.
GAP WINDS COULD REACH NEAR AWW CRITERIA FOR KABQ EARLY SATURDAY
WITH GUSTS REACHING 30 TO 35 KTS.
&&
32
.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT FRI SEP 18 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WEST AND ABOVE
NORMAL EAST AGAIN TODAY. EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE THE
BEST...BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SATURDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER CENTRAL AND
EAST DUE TO A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. WARMER
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS AN UPPER
LOW OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA STARTS A NORTHEASTWARD TREK TO THE GREAT
BASIN. CONVECTION COULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A DRYING TREND LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY TWEAKS TO INHERITED FORECAST GRIDS. UPPER JET APPARENTLY
PRODUCING MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL NM AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH THE DAY. MOSTLY ISOLD CONVECTION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH AND EAST. HIGHS WEST REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WITH THE
EAST ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT QUITE AS WARM IN RECENT DAYS. KROW
FORECAST HIGH WITHIN 2-4 DEG OF THE RECORD FOR TODAY...WHILE
INCOMING FRONT SHOULD KEEP CLAYTON OUT OF THE 90S. FRONTAL TIMING
MAY BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER...BUT NOT BY MUCH. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PLUNGES INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
EVENING...AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED INTO
THE RGV LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. NAM12 INDICATES SOME
INSTAB DEVELOPING NR/ALONG THE CONTDVD AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES
WWD...THEREFORE SPREAD SOME LOW PROBABILITY POPS FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY OVER THIS REGION. HIGHS IN THE EAST SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE...NEAR AVERAGE CENTRAL...WITH NOT MUCH COOLING...IF AT
ALL...FAR WEST.
TEMPERATURES RECOVER SUNDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH REBOUNDS. INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL INVADE NM FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
LOW OFF BAJA CA TRACKS INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ECMWF GENERALLY HAS
SAME IDEA THOUGH NOT AS WET OR QUITE AS FAST. LATE NEXT WEEK A
DRYING TREND IS FORECAST AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS YET AGAIN.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES DEFINING THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE EVOLVING
TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TODAY...A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL
RACE ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
KEEP FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM TODAY. WHILE SOME
BATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WORKING OVER THE
STATE...MID LEVEL LAYERS WILL BE QUITE DRY WITH SOME OF THIS
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN MANY AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...BUT OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MARKEDLY
LESS THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY...BUT CONTINUED WARM TO HOT
AT 8 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM. WINDS
WILL BEGIN SHIFTING IN THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS A FRONT ADVANCES CLOSER.
THE STRONGER FRONTAL PUSH SHOULD INVADE JUST BEFORE
SUNSET...SPILLING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
EVENING AND DRIVING BEYOND THE RIO GRANDE RIVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT IT WILL ALSO
INDUCE WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL STEADILY DIMINISH TOWARD NOON WITH DIRECTIONS VEERING
SOUTHERLY IN MOST ZONES. SOME MEAGER MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT THIS
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HELP THE CAUSE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT MUCH INTO
SATURDAY. DESPITE SOME UPSLOPE FLOW...STORMS WILL LIKELY STAY
ISOLATED AND SPARSE OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN SATURDAY WITH A BIT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FARTHER
WEST OVER THE CENTRAL DIVIDE AND INTO THE GILA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SET BACK TO AVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL ZONES ON SATURDAY WITH READINGS
RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NM.
INTO SUNDAY...LOW LAYER MOISTURE POOLING OVER OLD MEXICO AND THE
BORDERLAND WILL SEEP NORTHWARD...BUT STILL STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY
ISOLATED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GILA IN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 109.
TEMPERATURES WOULD REBOUND TO 3 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AREA WIDE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MORE STORM ACTIVITY MONDAY...BUT MORE-SO INTO
THE MID WEEK PERIOD AS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS SQUEEZED BETWEEN AN
EASTERN PACIFIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER TX. FORECAST MODELS ARE
STILL NOT COMPLETELY AGREEABLE ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MOISTURE
PLUME...AND THE GFS REMAINS MORE ASSERTIVE WITH THE PLUME ARRIVAL
INTO CENTRAL TO WESTERN NM. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR SCATTERED
STORMS IN THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1258 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW MAY ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT REMAINS OVER VERY WARM WATER. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
SHOULD STALL OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...THIS MORNING`S WAVE OF SHOWERS HAS COMPLETELY
DISSIPATED. AS THE SUN HEATS THE AIRMASS ALONG THE COAST A SECOND
ROUND MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS
SHOW 3-5 PM AS THE MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...
WITH IDEAS ABOUT INLAND MOVEMENT AND COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THE EARLIER
DISCUSSION COPIED BELOW. NOONTIME TEMPERATURES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED SO I HAVE TWEAKED A FEW INLAND LOCATIONS (FLORENCE
& LUMBERTON) TO 88 DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. DISCUSSION FROM 1030
AM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS DEVELOPING ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS IS ALONG THE LOCATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT HAS EXTENDED ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS. NE WINDS ARE BRINGING ATLANTIC MOISTURE ONSHORE
IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...BUT MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY
THERE IS A TIGHT GRADIENT IN DEEPER MOISTURE THAT WILL LIMIT HOW FAR
WESTWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN PENETRATE. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
RANGE FROM AROUND 2 INCHES OVER THE GULF STREAM TO LESS THAN 1 INCH
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.
MODELS SHOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON A SECOND WAVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
SHOULD BE TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE COAST. MY FORECAST POPS INDICATE
ABOUT 20-30 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES...HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHPORT AND GEORGETOWN VICINITY. THINNER MOISTURE PROFILES
INLAND SHOULD LIMIT THE WESTERNMOST EXTENT OF ANY POSSIBLE SHOWERS
TO BURGAW...WHITEVILLE...AND CONWAY.
THE BIGGEST CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO REDUCE CLOUD COVER
FORECASTS TO SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND
REDUCE POPS TO NEAR ZERO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY FLAT
CUMULUS DEVELOPING DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY AS INSUFFICIENT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD EXIST TO OVERCOME WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECASTS HAVE ALSO BEEN BUMPED UP 1-
2 DEGREES FROM FLORENCE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON WESTWARD. SOME UPPER
80S ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES NEEDED CLOSER TO
THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT WILL STILL BE IN PLACE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. MODELS
HAVE JOGGED THE GENERATED QPF FURTHER TO THE EAST AND SATURDAY IS
BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE LIKE A DRY DAY WITH SOME CLOUD COVER. THE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL KICK THE SYSTEM OUT TO
THE EAST LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LEAVING ESSENTIALLY NO THREAT FOR
RAINFALL. SOME DECENT DOWNSLOPING ALOFT WILL WARM TEMPERATURES
DRAMATICALLY FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS MID
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CUTS OFF IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND MEANDERS
AROUND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS IS TYPICAL WITH A CUTOFF
SYSTEM...MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT OF THE FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST BUT EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE WELL TO THE
SOUTH. BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY...I CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE POPS EACH
DAY WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. NO REAL
CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND TRENDS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S BEYOND MONDAY AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S. THE
DIURNAL RANGE WILL BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
MONDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...TERMINALS ARE VFR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO LOW VFR CIGS ARE
OCCURRING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE NE-ENE AT 10-15 KT WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS. SHOWERS ARE MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND CURRENT MOVEMENT SUGGESTS
THEY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A POTENTIAL
HOWEVER FOR VCSH AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A DRY AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT.
VFR AS WINDS AND LOWER CLOUDS DECREASE THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS WITH
AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE JUST
OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BACK TO THE NE-N BY DAYBREAK.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS LOW ATTM DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL TRACKS OF THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA..
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY
OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH NOONTIME OBSERVATIONS WERE ONLY
AROUND 15 KNOTS...GUSTS WITHIN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAVE REACHED
22 KNOTS AT BOTH WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH AND MYRTLE BEACH. WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DISCUSSION FROM 1030 AM FOLLOWS...
LOW PRESSURE IS TAKING SHAPE ABOUT 120 MILES EAST OF JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. THE TROUGH THIS LOW INTERSECTS HAS BEEN PRESENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS AND HAS HELPED TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE
GA/SC/NC COAST AS OLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF WIND SPEEDS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS... APPROACHING A SOLID 20 KNOTS BY THIS
EVENING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED AND WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
A CONVERGENT BOUNDARY LIES FROM JUST SOUTH OF BALD HEAD ISLAND
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NEAR WINYAH BAY. THIS APPEARS TO BE LAST NIGHT`S
LANDBREEZE BOUNDARY SCULPTED BY PREVAILING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS.
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY SINCE BEFORE SUNRISE...
AND WE WILL WATCH THIS AREA CLOSELY FOR MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND LACK
OF WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 8000 FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WE WILL ALSO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...FAIRLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-25 KNOTS
WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS ALL WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. WILL KEEP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 1800 UTC AS SEAS SHOULD BE REACHING
SIX FEET AS WELL. THE WINDS DIMINISH BY SATURDAY EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST AT A MORE MANAGEABLE 10-15 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL DROP TO 2-
4 FEET.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL BE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES WELL TO THE NORTH. SOME
CONVECTION COULD DISRUPT THE WIND FIELDS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL
AS EMBEDDED NORTHEAST SURGES. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
254-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW INTO
WESTERN WYOMING WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF GILLETTE.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS/BKN TO OVC NOW ENTERING BEACH AND APPROACHING
DICKINSON. REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS INCREASING REFLECTIVITY`S OVER
BOWMAN AND SLOPE COUNTIES. MILES CITY MONTANA REPORTED A TRACE OF
RAIN LAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND BAKER MONTANA IS NOW REPORTING LIGHT
RAIN. THE LATEST HRRR AND GFS SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST INITIALIZATION
ON THE CURRENT SITUATION. WITH THAT SAID THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS EXPANDING SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHEST POPS NEAR/ALONG THE
SOUTHERN BORDER INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST. THE FROST ADVISORY ALSO REMAINS IN GOOD STANDING
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 30S. EXPECTING SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS
SCOOTING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AT TIMES FOR THE
REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
EXTENDED THE FROST ADVISORY INTO WELLS AND FOSTER COUNTIES WITH
THIS UPDATE AS LOWS IN THE MID 30S ARE NOW EXPECTED GIVEN LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THESE AREAS. THUS...AN EXPANSION OF
THE FROST ADVISORY FURTHER SOUTH APPEARS TO BE UNLIKELY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
PATCHY FROST TONIGHT AND SHOWERS FRIDAY HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WITH LOW PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WAS PRODUCING A BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH A
FEW SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST.
FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST...SKIES HAD CLEARED WITH SUNNY CONDITIONS
OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. IT WAS BREEZY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 TO 25 MPH.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUED CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST...A
STRAY SHOWER IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH WEST LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
STATE TONIGHT AND IS FORECAST TO BE SITUATED NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 12 UTC FRIDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN WYOMING BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO SPREADING
WEST TO EAST FROM SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
WITH COLD HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE AREA...EXPECT LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. AND INCREASING
CLOUDS SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE NORTH...THEREFORE THEY WILL BE MOST
LIKELY TO FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S AND EXPERIENCE SOME FROST. WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH...THINK WE WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. WILL ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ALONG LAKE
SAKAKAWEA.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO SKIRT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR...WITH
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS NORTH. THEREFORE ALTHOUGH THE
NORTH WILL START OFF COOLER...DUE TO THE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS SOUTH...THE NORTH WILL ALSO BE THE WARMEST ON FRIDAY WITH
LOWER 70S...COMPARED TO LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY: UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING FRIDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY MORNING...AND MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE BOTH
AHEAD AND BEHIND THE ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH THAT SEPARATES TWO DRY
AND MILD PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE AIRMASSES WILL RESULT IN MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS WELL.
SHOULD RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND HIGHS IN THE
70S.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY
SHOULD KEEP THE FORECAST MAINLY DRY. MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT A COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER
80S...COOLING TO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND TO THE 70S SOUTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT STILL SEASONABLE FOR LATE SUMMER INTO EARLY
FALL. A DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS AND US
SOUTHWEST REACHES THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING MORE LOW AND MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH IT AND BRING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSHOWERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
LIGHT RAINSHOWERS EXPECTED AT KDIK BY 08Z FRIDAY AND AT KBIS BY
12Z FRIDAY. KBIS/KJMS WILL REMAIN ON THE FAR NORTHERN FRINGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION AREA...AND ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AT KJMS
AT THIS TIME...THUS AND HAVE GONE WITH A VCSH AT KJMS BY 14Z
FRIDAY. VFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH CIGS OF 5000FT
AT KDIK/KBIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE RAINSHOWERS.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013-017>023-025.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
149 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
LINGER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE TRIED TO FINE TUNE THE FORECAST. CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION
OVER NRN IL AND SRN WI ARE JUST ABOUT TO NW OHIO. THESE CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT SO HAVE
BUMPED UP TEMPS IN NW OH A FEW DEGREES. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW SOME OF THE PRECIP MAKING IT TO THE LOCAL AREA LATE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING SO SEE NO NEED TO CHANGE PRECIP CHANCES.
ORIGINAL...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT BEFORE CLOUDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE WEST. BY MORNING THE GFS AND NAM AGREE ON
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF MOISTURE GETTING INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. NO PLANNING ON ANY CONVECTION AT 12Z BUT WILL HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN THE GRIDS BY MORNING. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE IN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. EAST OF A MNN-LPR LINE WILL KEEP SKIES PC. LOWS
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT TERM BEGINS WITH DEEP MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
COUNTIES WHILE TO THE EAST HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL STILL BE
HOLDING ON. MODELS BRING THE MOISTURE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE DAY FINALLY REACHING NWRN PA BY 21-00Z TIME FRAME. AM
EXPECTING SHOWERS TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
ALTHOUGH AS THEY MOVES EAST EXPECTING SHOWERS TO THIN AS THEY RUN
INTO DRIER AIR. STILL...WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR THE DAY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. FRIDAY NIGHT A WAVE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL LAKES ON SATURDAY. WEAK WARM ADVECTION
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS.
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT TIMING SATURDAY
WITH PASSAGE BEGINNING IN THE WEST ABOUT NOON AND EXITING THE AREA
EAST ABOUT 6PM. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA.
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILD IN QUICKLY IN ITS WAKE SATURDAY.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS TO START FAR EAST SATURDAY NIGHT BUT WILL
DRY OUT THE FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT. TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY
DROPPING TO BELOW NORMAL BY SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE SUGGESTING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW BECOMING CUT OFF ACROSS THE
SERN US. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SHARP INVERTED TROUGH
AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE OH PA BOARDER. THE LATEST
GFS AND ECMWF RUNS CONTINUE TO PRINT OUT LIGHT QPF ACROSS WESTERN PA
INTO EASTERN OH. DESPITE SUFFICIENT FORCING...MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULGING IN FROM THE NORTH. KEPT
THE SLIGHT CHANCE 20 POPS GOING FROM CLEVELAND EAST ON TUESDAY...BUT
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS CONTINUE TO DIAL BACK POPS.
IN OTHER WORDS...MOST OF MON AND TUE WILL BE DRY WITH PERHAPS A
SHOWER OR TWO IN THE FAR EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
WARM ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH WILL
TAKE A RUN EASTWARD TODAY...LIKELY REACHING KTOL THIS MORNING.
NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE AT THE TAF SITES FARTHER EAST...MENTIONED
"VICINITY" AT KFDY AND DID NOT INCLUDE AND SHOWERS FARTHER EAST
ALTHOUGH THERE IS CERTAINLY A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF SHOWER OR
SPRINKLE ESPECIALLY AT KCLE AND KERI LATER. EVEN IF IT RAINS AT
THOSE SITES...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP TONIGHT BUT LIKELY STAY MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF THE AREA. MENTIONED VICINITY THUNDER AT KTOL AND KCLE
FRIDAY NIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. NON-VFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING NEAR LAKE ERIE. VFR FROM
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ON.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. A WEAK
FRONT/SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE LAKE FRIDAY
MORNING THEN WEAKEN. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
LIKELY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE FLOW PICKS UP BEHIND THE
FRONT. BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NORTH OF THE LAKE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...MAYERS
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...MAYERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
110 AM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON FRIDAY BEFORE PUSHING THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY...ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPSTREAM CONVECTION IS NOT SHOWING MUCH IN THE WAY OF BLOWOFF THAT
WAS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO NW FCST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. HAVE
PARED BACK THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER TO OCCUR MORE TOWARDS DAYBREAK
AND COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF H5 S/W THROUGH NRN OHIO. THIS IS
THE BRUNT OF THE FORECAST CHANGE THIS EVENING. ALSO PARED BACK
SOME IN THE CHANCES OF A SHOWER OCCURRING BEFORE DAYBREAK IN THE
NORTHWEST. CURRENT GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE S/W IN INDIANA AT 12Z
AND ALL BUT THE TINIEST SLIVER OF NW OHIO DRY THROUGH THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY BUT
WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST. THERE COULD BE CONSIDERABLE
CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING HOURS RESULTING FROM PREVIOUS NIGHTS
CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHWEST. AGAIN...A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE SKIMMING
OUR NORTHWEST ZONES DURING THE MORNING. IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CLOSER TO THE FRONT FOR
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT BUT
SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER AND MID 80S ONCE AGAIN.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...POTENT S/WV WITHIN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST TO THE GREAT LAKES. A STRONG LLJ WILL TEAM UP WITH
FAVORABLE UPR DIV FROM THE RR QUAD OF AN UPR LVL JET TO PERTURB A
WAVE LOW PRESSURE ON THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD PCPN IS EXPECTED FROM
NRN IL...SRN WI...NRN IND...SRN MI AND THEN INTO NW OHIO. OUR AREA
WILL BE ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING SO ONLY
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NW TAPERING OFF TO A DRY
FORECAST MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-71. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY IN THE 60S.
ON SATURDAY...AS WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTHEAST...
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THEN WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. THE FRONT
WILL INTERACT WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS. HOWEVER...LIFT WILL BE
MAINLY FROM LOW LEVEL FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WE SHOULD AT LEAST SEE LIKELY POPS FOR OUR WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWFA...BUT FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SEEMS TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SO HAVE CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR EMBEDDED THUNDER.
BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT TO OUR SOUTHEAST...
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION. LOWS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
THIS HIGH WILL BE FAIRLY DRY...PROVIDING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
THE FOCUS GOING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK WILL BE ON THE
FORMATION OF AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL
DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE HIGH TRANSLATES NORTHEAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...A SSW-TO-NNE ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST WEST
OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS...WITH MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
SPREADING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY REGIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF THROUGH TUESDAY...AND BOTH MODELS SUGGEST THAT
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE ILN FORECAST AREA.
THUS...POPS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS A LITTLE MORE LIKELY ON TUESDAY). WITH MODELS
INDICATING RELATIVELY STABLE CONDITIONS...THUNDER SEEMS UNLIKELY.
MODEL SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY WITH
REGARD TO THE LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW. THE 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUNS LOOK VASTLY DIFFERENT TODAY THAN THEY DID
YESTERDAY. GFSE MEMBERS ARE SHOWING A POSITIONAL SPREAD OF AROUND
400 MILES WITH REGARDS TO THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND ARE SPREAD OUT ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY EVENING
THAT THE ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SO DAMPENED AS TO MISS THE PRESENCE OF THE
CLOSED LOW ENTIRELY. THUS...THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY IS OF VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE
FORECAST...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA ALLOWING FOR LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BE CROSSING THE AREA FRIDAY WHICH WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE PRECIP FALLING APART AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. KDAY WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE PRECIP AS
IT BEGINS TO FALL APART. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OF PRECIP
OUT. BESIDES SOME POSSIBLE FOG AT KLUK THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE ISSUANCE.
OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
NEAR TERM...FRANKS
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO/HICKMAN
LONG TERM...HATZOS
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
107 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION
&&
.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, AS WELL A FEW
PERIODS OF TSRA AND MFVR TO IFR CONDITIONS. THE COLD FRONT HAS
ALREADY PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA, WHICH WILL BE
AFFECTING TERMINALS KWWR AND KGAG THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED
TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD TSRA, POSSIBLY SEVERE, EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. TSRA POPS
SHOULD BE DECREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND NORTH
TEXAS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING...
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY A
SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE... MARKED BY A CORRIDOR OF
925-850 THETA E ADVECTION FROM FAR WRN N TX INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE PANHANDLES... WELL VISUALIZED ON
WV. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN
NWRN OK... AND IS EXPECTED TO START TO PUSH S/SE BY NOON. BIG
QUESTION AT THE MOMENT IS WHAT... IF ANY... RESIDUAL IMPACT EXISTS
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION ON ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY THIS AFTN.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR HAS STRUGGLE OVER THE PAST TWO
HRS WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION... WITH THE 12Z NAM HAVING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER GRASP WITH ITS CONV PRECIP. AT PRESENT... AHEAD OF
THE CURRENT CONVECTION... DPTS REMAIN POOLED IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH 16Z. THEREFORE... STILL ANTICIPATE A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS... 70 TO
80 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH THE SEVERE HAZARDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... TOWARDS THE RED RIVER.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TONIGHT... SUCH AS HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL
OR THE OKLAHOMA STATE FAIR... SCOUT OUT GOOD SHELTER LOCATIONS
WHEN YOU ARRIVE AT YOUR VENUE... BLEACHERS AND LIGHTNING DO NOT
MIX. DO NOT WAIT TO SEEK SHELTER WHEN YOU SEE LIGHTNING... WHEN
THUNDER ROARS... GO IN DOORS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CSM THIS MORNING.
LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR WWR TO PNC
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE SO WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS WHERE THERE ARE STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTIES. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS. A FEW WEAK ECHOES
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR WOODWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS N/NW OK BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED. LATER THIS MORNING A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF NM WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS OK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT WITH
THIS FEATURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE LUNCHTIME. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE...THIS MAY RESULT IN A DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO NW OK. THE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM JUST WEST OF PNC TO CAMARGO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DO NOT APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IN ADDITION TO
EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR...SO SIGNIFICANT HAIL CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...HOWEVER...WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH LCLS/DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 5PM-MIDNIGHT AS SFC CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG OF THE FRONT NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR. AT LEAST ONE
MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO NORTH TX EARLY SAT AM...AND LIKELY
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TX SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD SUN AM MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40. POPS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E/SE ZONES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ALONG A SFC
TROUGH. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A WARM UP AND
DECREASING/LITTLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 64 77 60 / 50 80 20 30
HOBART OK 95 65 77 61 / 50 80 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 70 83 65 / 20 50 40 40
GAGE OK 89 57 76 56 / 40 30 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 89 59 75 55 / 70 70 10 20
DURANT OK 95 71 84 66 / 0 40 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/26/67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTN/EVENING...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY A
SUBTLE LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE... MARKED BY A CORRIDOR OF
925-850 THETA E ADVECTION FROM FAR WRN N TX INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK.
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT HAS BEEN PROVIDED BY A SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS NERN NM INTO THE PANHANDLES... WELL VISUALIZED ON
WV. 16Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS THE COLD FRONT KNOCKING ON THE DOOR IN
NWRN OK... AND IS EXPECTED TO START TO PUSH S/SE BY NOON. BIG
QUESTION AT THE MOMENT IS WHAT... IF ANY... RESIDUAL IMPACT EXISTS
FROM CURRENT CONVECTION ON ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY THIS AFTN.
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR HAS STRUGGLE OVER THE PAST TWO
HRS WITH THE CURRENT CONVECTION... WITH THE 12Z NAM HAVING A
SLIGHTLY BETTER GRASP WITH ITS CONV PRECIP. AT PRESENT... AHEAD OF
THE CURRENT CONVECTION... DPTS REMAIN POOLED IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ACROSS CENTRAL OK AND TEMPS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
LOW/MID 80S THROUGH 16Z. THEREFORE... STILL ANTICIPATE A SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTN
AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS... 70 TO
80 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. STORMS WILL BECOME MORE LINEAR THROUGH THE EVENING...
WITH THE SEVERE HAZARDS SLOWLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THEY MOVE INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... TOWARDS THE RED RIVER.
IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS TONIGHT... SUCH AS HIGH SCHOOL FOOTBALL
OR THE OKLAHOMA STATE FAIR... SCOUT OUT GOOD SHELTER LOCATIONS
WHEN YOU ARRIVE AT YOUR VENUE... BLEACHERS AND LIGHTNING DO NOT
MIX. DO NOT WAIT TO SEEK SHELTER WHEN YOU SEE LIGHTNING... WHEN
THUNDER ROARS... GO IN DOORS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR CSM THIS MORNING.
LATER THIS EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO OK. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL INCREASE ALONG THIS COLD FRONT FROM NEAR WWR TO PNC
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE OTHER TERMINALS LATER
TONIGHT. EXACT TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL QUESTIONABLE SO WILL
INCLUDE PROB30 GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS WHERE THERE ARE STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTIES. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH WINDS LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NORTH WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT
LATER TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 449 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE FRONT EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS. A FEW WEAK ECHOES
HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED NEAR WOODWARD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BEFORE SUNRISE ACROSS N/NW OK BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
IS ANTICIPATED. LATER THIS MORNING A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF NM WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS
ACROSS OK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A BIT WITH
THIS FEATURE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT BEFORE LUNCHTIME. DEPENDING
ON COVERAGE...THIS MAY RESULT IN A DIFFICULT TEMP FORECAST AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INTO NW OK. THE MORNING
ACTIVITY WILL ALSO HAVE AN IMPACT ON POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...IT APPEARS A NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM JUST WEST OF PNC TO CAMARGO. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
DO NOT APPEAR THEY WILL BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...IN ADDITION TO
EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR...SO SIGNIFICANT HAIL CHANCES APPEAR LOW.
DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 70 MPH...HOWEVER...WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
HIGH LCLS/DRY SUB CLOUD LAYER. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR SEVERE
WIND GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 5PM-MIDNIGHT AS SFC CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG OF THE FRONT NEAR THE I44 CORRIDOR. AT LEAST ONE
MCS APPEARS POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR
INCREASES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO NORTH TX EARLY SAT AM...AND LIKELY
BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL TX SATURDAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES SATURDAY AND THEN LIFT
NORTHWARD SUN AM MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I40. POPS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E/SE ZONES THROUGH EARLY MONDAY ALONG A SFC
TROUGH. FINALLY...BY TUESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RESULTING IN A WARM UP AND
DECREASING/LITTLE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 94 64 77 60 / 50 80 20 30
HOBART OK 95 65 77 61 / 50 80 30 50
WICHITA FALLS TX 98 70 83 65 / 20 50 40 40
GAGE OK 89 57 76 56 / 40 30 10 30
PONCA CITY OK 89 59 75 55 / 70 70 10 20
DURANT OK 95 71 84 66 / 0 40 30 30
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
NORTHERN TIER BELT OF WESTERLIES SPREADS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET INCREASINGLY PINCHED OVERHEAD
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. PROFILES OVER OUR AREA WILL STAY
RELATIVELY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP DO INDICATE PATCHY LOWER
STRATUS TRYING TO MAKE A RUN WESTWARD FROM THE COAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. MOST CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS
AND THEN A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS WITH HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND...WITH MINS AT LEAST A
CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...AND TWO TO THREE
CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...A DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA. ON SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM
THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE FA BY SUNSET. SKY COVER
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH THE
DAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AND NO FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN DRY
WEATHER ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE L80S
WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE U80S EAST.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE GFS INDICATE THAT
WEAK 300 K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY LLVL SE FLOW. THE COMBINATION OF
ISENTROPIC LIFT...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WIDESPREAD WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ON
MONDAY. THICK CLOUDS...RAINFALL...AND DEVELOPING NE SFC WINDS WILL
FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS CONSENSUS. I WILL FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE L70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE L80S
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH AN UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA AND MORPH INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
BY LATE WED. THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE
REGION INTO FRI WITH BROAD SCALE UPPER RIDGING SPREADING FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SAME PERIOD. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS DOES TRY TO MAINTAIN THE CLOSED LOW ABOUT 24 TO 48 HRS
LONGER THAN THE OLDER RUN OF THE ECWMF. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TUES
WITH A BROAD LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...WITH SIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THE GFS AND THE CMC KEEP
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE WELL INTO THURS WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
SLIDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SFC HIGH. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE CWFA BY FRI WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW UP THE
EAST COAST ON TUES AND THEN WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE WED ALL WHILE
KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FCST AREA THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON A GFS TYPE
SOLUTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST DAY OR 2
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS APPEAR MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
VALUES WARMING A FEW DEGREES THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE NEARING
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES FOR MID/LATE SEPT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS DURING
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND RAP
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL STRATUS COULD MAKE A RUN WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE MOS...SO ONLY FEW020 WILL BE FEATURED IN THE TAF
TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT CONTINUED NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...FEW TO SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN REDEVELOP WITH HEATING LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
KAVL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUITE BRIEF THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS IN
THIS AIRMASS. WILL THUS FEATURE JUST FEW TO SCT LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH MORE NRLY FLOW INTO THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW MAY INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 64% HIGH 100% LOW 59% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
253 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TOMORROW. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASING FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RETURN ON MONDAY...WITH PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION CONTINUING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
NORTHERN TIER BELT OF WESTERLIES SPREADS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET INCREASINGLY PINCHED OVERHEAD
BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY. PROFILES OVER OUR AREA WILL STAY
RELATIVELY DRY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP DO INDICATE PATCHY LOWER
STRATUS TRYING TO MAKE A RUN WESTWARD FROM THE COAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT OVERNIGHT. MOST CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS
AND THEN A FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS WITH HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND...WITH MINS AT LEAST A
CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...AND TWO TO THREE
CATEGORIES ABOVE CLIMO FOR MAX TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM...A DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SENSIBLE
WEATHER OVER THE CWA. ON SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
FROM THE NORTHWEST...LIKELY REMAINING WEST OF THE FA BY SUNSET. SKY
COVER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION THROUGH
THE DAY. LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY AND NO FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER ON SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
L80S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE U80S EAST.
ON MONDAY...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY HANG OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE
OVER NEW ENGLAND...THE RIDGE OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE GFS
INDICATE THAT WEAK 300 K ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...SUPPORTED BY LLVL SE FLOW. THE
COMBINATION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT...LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW...AND WIDESPREAD
WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHRA/TSRA ON
MONDAY. THICK CLOUDS...RAINFALL...AND DEVELOPING NE SFC WINDS WILL
FAVOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW THE MOS CONSENSUS. I WILL FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE L70S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO THE L80S
ACROSS THE LAKELANDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM FRIDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON TUESDAY
WITH AN UPPER TROF AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST AND UPPER RIDGING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THE TROF IS EXPECTED
TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE FCST AREA AND MORPH INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW
BY LATE WED. THE LONG RANGE MODELS KEEP THE LOW SPINNING OVER THE SE
REGION INTO FRI WITH BROAD SCALE UPPER RIDGING SPREADING FARTHER
EAST OVER THE SAME PERIOD. IT IS NOTABLE THAT THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS DOES TRY TO MAINTAIN THE CLOSED LOW ABOUT 24 TO 48 HRS
LONGER THAN THE OLDER RUN OF THE ECWMF. AT THE SFC...CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TUES
WITH A BROAD LOW CENTERED JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THE EVOLUTION
OF THE SFC PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT...WITH SIG
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LONG RANGE MODELS. THE GFS AND THE CMC KEEP
THE LOW JUST OFFSHORE WELL INTO THURS WITH ANOTHER CANADIAN HIGH
SLIDING EASTWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE PREVIOUS SFC HIGH. THE LOW
EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES OVER THE CWFA BY FRI WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD AND TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW UP THE
EAST COAST ON TUES AND THEN WELL OFFSHORE BY LATE WED ALL WHILE
KEEPING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FCST AREA THRU THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
AS FOR THE SENSIBLE FCST...MORE WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON A GFS TYPE
SOLUTION WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST DAY OR 2
OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS APPEAR MORE CONSISTENT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH
VALUES WARMING A FEW DEGREES THRU THE MEDIUM RANGE NEARING
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES FOR MID/LATE SEPT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS DURING
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND RAP
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL STRATUS COULD MAKE A RUN WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE MOS...SO ONLY FEW020 WILL BE FEATURED IN THE TAF
TOWARD DAYBREAK. EXPECT CONTINUED NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...FEW TO SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN REDEVELOP WITH HEATING LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
KAVL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUITE BRIEF THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS IN
THIS AIRMASS. WILL THUS FEATURE JUST FEW TO SCT LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MAINLY NE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH MORE NRLY FLOW INTO THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT KAVL.
OUTLOOK...MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW MAY INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 64% HIGH 100% LOW 59% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...NED
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...PEAKING TUESDAY AS THE FRONT LAYS OUT OVER
THE REGION. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY...AND PERIODIC
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS THE
NRN TIER BELT OF WESTERLIES SPREADS SOUTHWARD. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER
THE FORECAST AREA WILL GET INCREASINGLY PINCHED OVERHEAD BETWEEN LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE OH VALLEY. PROFILES OVER OUR AREA WILL STAY RELATIVELY
DRY...ALTHOUGH THE NAM AND RAP DO INDICATE PATCHY LOWER STRATUS
TRYING TO MAKE A RUN WESTWARD FROM THE COAST INTO THE PIEDMONT
OVERNIGHT. MOST CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...SHOULD BE
CONFINED MAINLY TO EARLY MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS AND THEN A
FEW DAYTIME CUMULUS WITH HEATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO REBOUND...WITH MINS AT LEAST A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO
THROUGHOUT OVERNIGHT...AND TWO TO THREE CATEGORIES ABOVE FOR MAX
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM...WHILE LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS NEWD ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY...A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO THE CWFA. A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE INITIALLY WILL BE OVERHEAD...BUT THIS COLLAPSES AS A
TROUGH SWINGS ACRS THE GREAT LAKES. POOR LAPSE RATES AND DRY
CONDITIONS UNDER THE RIDGE WILL KEEP THE CWFA DRY SATURDAY. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO ERN CANADA ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL LAY OUT ACRS THE TENN VALLEY AND VIRGINIAS. THE FLOW TURNS
MORE NWLY NEAR THE SFC AND LAPSE RATES IMPROVE ENOUGH TO EXPECT SOME
DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY RESULT OVER THE MTNS. AS THE FRONT IMPINGES ON
THE MTNS SUNDAY NIGHT POPS CONTINUE...THOUGH THE FRONT WASHES OUT TO
SOME DEGREE. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO BOTH DAYS...WITH SUNDAY
EXPECTED TO BE WARMER DUE TO HIGHER THICKNESSES DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM FRI...UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN
REGION MON-TUE BEFORE CLOSED LOW CUTS OFF AT ITS BASE...REMAINING
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD...POSSIBLY
DRIFTING WESTWARD. NEAR THE SFC THE EARLY WEEK FRONT WILL STALL JUST
NORTH OF THE AREA...THEN POSSIBLY BE FORCED DOWN AS A BACK-DOOR FRONT
TUE NIGHT BY BUILDING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE MIDWEST. LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTIVE FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH THE FRONT STALLED...BUT
ONCE IT PUSHES SOUTH THERE IS JUST VERY LITTLE UPGLIDE OCCURRING OVER
IT...AND MOISTURE REMAINS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOW LEVELS. MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE PREDICTABLY STRONG WITH THE UPPER LOW OVERHEAD
MON-TUE...BUT MONDAY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD
LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. POPS PEAK TUE AND TREND DOWNWARD THRU
MIDWEEK. DESPITE DRYING EASTERLY FLOW DOES CONTINUE WITH ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO JUSTIFY A LOW POP MENTION THRU THE END OF THE FCST.
MAX TEMPS WILL DIP A CATEGORY OR SO BELOW CLIMO TUE AND SLOWLY
REBOUND...WITH MINS REMAINING SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT...TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT MAINLY AFTERNOON FEW TO SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS DURING
HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE NAM AND RAP
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT LOWER LEVEL STRATUS COULD MAKE A RUN WESTWARD
THROUGH THE PIEDMONT TOWARD THE AIRFIELD OVERNIGHT...BUT THIS IS NOT
SUPPORTED BY THE MOS SO ONLY FEW020 WILL BE FEATURED IN THE TAF.
EXPECT CONTINUED NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE...FEW TO SCT VFR LEVEL CUMULUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND THEN REDEVELOP WITH HEATING LATE SATURDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF MOUNTAIN VALLEY STRATUS LOOKS LIKELY...BUT
KAVL LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN QUITE BRIEF THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS IN
THIS AIRMASS. WILL THUS FEATURE JUST FEW TO SCT LOW STRATUS ALONG
WITH BRIEF MVFR FOG AROUND DAYBREAK...WITH NO RESTRICTIONS
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT MAINLY NE FLOW LESS THAN 10 KT ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS...WITH MORE NRLY FLOW INTO THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY AT
KAVL.
OUTLOOK...MORNING MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE
SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY...AND A DEVELOPING MID LEVEL LOW MAY INCREASE
THE CHANCES OF LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN ACROSS THE REGION EARLY TO MIDDLE
NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL MED 62% HIGH 100% MED 66% HIGH 88%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WIMBERLEY
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...WIMBERLEY
LONG TERM...WIMBERLEY
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1230 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT MID LEVEL FRONT REMAINS LOCKED
FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE CWA. HAD CLEARED ENOUGH EARLIER
WITH DIMINISHED NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTH...AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL TOWARD 40 TO
45 IN SIMILAR AREAS. THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING...
JET DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD NORTHERN
COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND SECONDARY JET WITH LEADING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AT 08Z HAS BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO STREAM NORTHEAST ALONG MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT THE
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING THE APPROACH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH
SPREAD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT DID FIND A NEED TO SPEED UP THE
SPREAD A BIT OVER EARLIER FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO HEAD LARGELY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I 90 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP BASED A BIT LOWER IN
THE FRONTAL REALM SHOULD START TO POP UP PER ALMOST ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD I 80 IN NEBRASKA WHERE CAN SEE
GATHERING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS BAND. AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ENHANCES WITH APPROACH OF LARGER SCALE FORCING.
SOME HIGHER BASED INSTABILITY PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE
775 HPA CREEPING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW
IA...AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER. FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS LOOK
TO TAKE DIRECT AIM ACROSS THE FSD CWA FROM VERY LATE MORNING IN THE
FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY STRONG WITH PV ADVECTION. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OUTFLOW JET THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... INDICATIVE OF DECENT LATENT
HEAT RELEASE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE MID/NORTH CWA A BIT MORE. ALSO...DURING THE AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT
COOLER...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND A COUPLE OTHER OF CAMS INDICATED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHICH ROTATES EASTWARD
WITH SOME AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 50 DBZ
CORES...SUGGESTING A LOWER END THUNDER THREAT AS WELL. THIS AREA
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. IF COULD MANAGE TO GET A BIT MORE
DIURNAL SUPPORT TO HEATING...COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PERHAPS SEE AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SOME VERY SMALL HAIL IN THE LOWER
BRULE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
APPEARS THAT ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF PRECIP WILL
HOLD BACK HIGHS ENOUGH...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE COMPLICATES THOUGHTS OF KEEPING A
BIT MORE EXTENDED MENTION OF PRECIP CHANCE...AS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS
A MUCH GREATER PORTION OF THE PRECIP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BY 00Z. HOWEVER...WITH CHANCE FOR A BIT
OF PRECIP IN DEFORMATION NORTH OF AXIS AND AT THIS TIME...WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE TRAILING SMALL BAND OF LOWER POPS...BUT SHOULD BE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING WITH THE OVERWHELMING LARGE SCALE TREND TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING...AND THUS PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRAVERSE MUCH REAL ESTATE
BEFORE FADING AWAY. WINDS SHOULD ALSO WORK TOWARD DIMINISHING... AND
WITH CLEARING...WILL SEE A FEW NEAR 40 READINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA...WITH MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BACK AND TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE
COOL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MILDER LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND WARMER HIGHS...MOSTLY MID 70S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING FLAT RIDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING THE RIDGE BEFORE SWINGING A PRETTY STRONG
WAVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS WAVE OF
COURSE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT EACH MODEL DOES HAVE
THIS ENERGY WORKING INTO THE AREA OVER THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD. PLUS THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF HINT AT THE WAVE COMING OUT IN A COUPLE OF PIECES
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE COMPACT AND COMES OUT IN ONE STRONG PIECE.
SO...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WOULD
PINPOINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TOO TOUGH TO CALL ON TIMING RIGHT NOW. WILL ALSO NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE PRIMARILY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
HOWEVER AM A LITTLE WORRIED ABOUT RADIATIONAL FOG HERE AND THERE
LATE TONIGHT AND VERY EARLY SATURDAY CONSIDERING THE MOIST GROUND
OVER SOME LOCATIONS...LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. FOR NOW...
LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF FOG IN THE TAF SITES AS PREDICTING THIS
SCENARIO FOR A POINT LOCATION AT THIS TIME IS DIFFICULT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
654 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT MID LEVEL FRONT REMAINS LOCKED
FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE CWA. HAD CLEARED ENOUGH EARLIER
WITH DIMINISHED NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTH...AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL TOWARD 40 TO
45 IN SIMILAR AREAS. THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING...
JET DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD NORTHERN
COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND SECONDARY JET WITH LEADING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AT 08Z HAS BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO STREAM NORTHEAST ALONG MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT THE
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING THE APPROACH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH
SPREAD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT DID FIND A NEED TO SPEED UP THE
SPREAD A BIT OVER EARLIER FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO HEAD LARGELY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I 90 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP BASED A BIT LOWER IN
THE FRONTAL REALM SHOULD START TO POP UP PER ALMOST ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD I 80 IN NEBRASKA WHERE CAN SEE
GATHERING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS BAND. AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ENHANCES WITH APPROACH OF LARGER SCALE FORCING.
SOME HIGHER BASED INSTABILITY PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE
775 HPA CREEPING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW
IA...AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER. FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS LOOK
TO TAKE DIRECT AIM ACROSS THE FSD CWA FROM VERY LATE MORNING IN THE
FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY STRONG WITH PV ADVECTION. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OUTFLOW JET THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... INDICATIVE OF DECENT LATENT
HEAT RELEASE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE MID/NORTH CWA A BIT MORE. ALSO...DURING THE AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT
COOLER...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND A COUPLE OTHER OF CAMS INDICATED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHICH ROTATES EASTWARD
WITH SOME AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 50 DBZ
CORES...SUGGESTING A LOWER END THUNDER THREAT AS WELL. THIS AREA
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. IF COULD MANAGE TO GET A BIT MORE
DIURNAL SUPPORT TO HEATING...COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PERHAPS SEE AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SOME VERY SMALL HAIL IN THE LOWER
BRULE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
APPEARS THAT ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF PRECIP WILL
HOLD BACK HIGHS ENOUGH...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE COMPLICATES THOUGHTS OF KEEPING A
BIT MORE EXTENDED MENTION OF PRECIP CHANCE...AS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS
A MUCH GREATER PORTION OF THE PRECIP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BY 00Z. HOWEVER...WITH CHANCE FOR A BIT
OF PRECIP IN DEFORMATION NORTH OF AXIS AND AT THIS TIME...WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE TRAILING SMALL BAND OF LOWER POPS...BUT SHOULD BE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING WITH THE OVERWHELMING LARGE SCALE TREND TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING...AND THUS PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRAVERSE MUCH REAL ESTATE
BEFORE FADING AWAY. WINDS SHOULD ALSO WORK TOWARD DIMINISHING... AND
WITH CLEARING...WILL SEE A FEW NEAR 40 READINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA...WITH MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BACK AND TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE
COOL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MILDER LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND WARMER HIGHS...MOSTLY MID 70S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING FLAT RIDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING THE RIDGE BEFORE SWINGING A PRETTY STRONG
WAVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS WAVE OF
COURSE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT EACH MODEL DOES HAVE
THIS ENERGY WORKING INTO THE AREA OVER THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD. PLUS THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF HINT AT THE WAVE COMING OUT IN A COUPLE OF PIECES
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE COMPACT AND COMES OUT IN ONE STRONG PIECE.
SO...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WOULD
PINPOINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TOO TOUGH TO CALL ON TIMING RIGHT NOW. WILL ALSO NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
FOR THE MOST PART...EXPECT VFR CEILINGS TO ACCOMPANY LIGHT BANDED
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY. COULD SEE A LITTLE LOWER CEILINGS
INTO MVFR RANGE FOR BRIEF TIMES...BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY
GREATER THREAT AND THUS NOT OPTIMAL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. COULD
BE A LITTLE THUNDER TOWARD KSUX DURING THE AFTERNOON...AGAIN TOO
LOW A PROBABILITY TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
433 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
AT THE SURFACE THIS MORNING...THE LOW LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT MID LEVEL FRONT REMAINS LOCKED
FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ACROSS THE CWA. HAD CLEARED ENOUGH EARLIER
WITH DIMINISHED NORTHERLY WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S IN ALL BUT FAR SOUTH...AND DEWPOINTS TO FALL TOWARD 40 TO
45 IN SIMILAR AREAS. THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ARE THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS WYOMING...
JET DIGGING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARD NORTHERN
COLORADO/SOUTHERN WYOMING...AND SECONDARY JET WITH LEADING NORTHERN
STREAM TROUGH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD SOUTHWEST ONTARIO.
INITIAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD AT 08Z HAS BEEN
ATTEMPTING TO STREAM NORTHEAST ALONG MID LEVEL BOUNDARY...BUT THE
DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR IN PLACE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING THE APPROACH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA. WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE WITH
SPREAD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...BUT DID FIND A NEED TO SPEED UP THE
SPREAD A BIT OVER EARLIER FORECAST...WHICH LOOKS TO HEAD LARGELY
ALONG/SOUTH OF I 90 IN MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP BASED A BIT LOWER IN
THE FRONTAL REALM SHOULD START TO POP UP PER ALMOST ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS EARLY THIS MORNING TOWARD I 80 IN NEBRASKA WHERE CAN SEE
GATHERING MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF STRATUS BAND. AS THIS AREA OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS ENHANCES WITH APPROACH OF LARGER SCALE FORCING.
SOME HIGHER BASED INSTABILITY PROFILES SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY ABOVE
775 HPA CREEPING TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY AND PARTS OF NW
IA...AND HAVE ADDED IN ISOLATED THUNDER. FAIRLY STRONG DYNAMICS LOOK
TO TAKE DIRECT AIM ACROSS THE FSD CWA FROM VERY LATE MORNING IN THE
FAR WEST...SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY STRONG WITH PV ADVECTION. MODELS SIMILAR IN DEVELOPING
ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED OUTFLOW JET THROUGH MIDDAY FROM NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA... INDICATIVE OF DECENT LATENT
HEAT RELEASE IN THE FRONTAL ZONE. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION IS
FAIRLY HIGH...AND HAVE RAISED THE POPS IN THE MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE MID/NORTH CWA A BIT MORE. ALSO...DURING THE AFTERNOON
CLOSER TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER WAVE WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT
COOLER...EXPERIMENTAL HRRR AND A COUPLE OTHER OF CAMS INDICATED
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERY AREA ACROSS CENTRAL SD WHICH ROTATES EASTWARD
WITH SOME AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 50 DBZ
CORES...SUGGESTING A LOWER END THUNDER THREAT AS WELL. THIS AREA
SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT MORE LIMITED TO AREAS WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER
DURING THE MIDDAY/AFTERNOON HOURS. IF COULD MANAGE TO GET A BIT MORE
DIURNAL SUPPORT TO HEATING...COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
PERHAPS SEE AN OUTSIDE THREAT OF SOME VERY SMALL HAIL IN THE LOWER
BRULE AREA DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
APPEARS THAT ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AND THE PRESENCE OF PRECIP WILL
HOLD BACK HIGHS ENOUGH...MAINLY UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE AREA.
SHORT WAVELENGTH OF THE FEATURE COMPLICATES THOUGHTS OF KEEPING A
BIT MORE EXTENDED MENTION OF PRECIP CHANCE...AS WOULD TEND TO FOCUS
A MUCH GREATER PORTION OF THE PRECIP AHEAD OF TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
THROUGH ALL BUT THE FAR EAST BY 00Z. HOWEVER...WITH CHANCE FOR A BIT
OF PRECIP IN DEFORMATION NORTH OF AXIS AND AT THIS TIME...WILL ALSO
INTRODUCE TRAILING SMALL BAND OF LOWER POPS...BUT SHOULD BE QUICKLY
DISSIPATING WITH THE OVERWHELMING LARGE SCALE TREND TO SUBSIDENCE
AND DRYING...AND THUS PRECIP SHOULD NOT TRAVERSE MUCH REAL ESTATE
BEFORE FADING AWAY. WINDS SHOULD ALSO WORK TOWARD DIMINISHING... AND
WITH CLEARING...WILL SEE A FEW NEAR 40 READINGS INTO THE NORTHERN
CWA...WITH MID 40S SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 AM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK DRY AND QUIET. HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING WINDS TO
BACK AND TURN A BIT MORE SOUTHERLY. EVEN WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THE
COOL ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY ONLY SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INCREASES A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH WILL BRING MILDER LOWS ON SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AND WARMER HIGHS...MOSTLY MID 70S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...MODELS STILL IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT BRINGING FLAT RIDGING INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY
THEN GRADUALLY BUILDING THE RIDGE BEFORE SWINGING A PRETTY STRONG
WAVE INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TIMING OF THIS WAVE OF
COURSE A BIT DIFFERENT FROM MODEL TO MODEL BUT EACH MODEL DOES HAVE
THIS ENERGY WORKING INTO THE AREA OVER THAT 48 HOUR PERIOD. PLUS THE
CANADIAN AND ECMWF HINT AT THE WAVE COMING OUT IN A COUPLE OF PIECES
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE COMPACT AND COMES OUT IN ONE STRONG PIECE.
SO...LOOKING AT DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH GRADUALLY
INCREASING CHANCES WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME WOULD
PINPOINT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TOO TOUGH TO CALL ON TIMING RIGHT NOW. WILL ALSO NEED
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU SEP 17 2015
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME
LIGHT RAINFALL SPREADING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL SD AFTER 08Z. LIGHT
RAIN SPREADS EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
PREDOMINATELY VFR.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
652 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT. JUST A FEW LINGERING SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOWERS NEAR MCALLEN THIS EVENING...THEN LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. FEW TO SCT CU WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE AGAIN.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT POINT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA GROUPS FOR BOTH BRO AND MFE...WITH A LITTLE
LESS CERTAINTY AT MFE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PESKY ESPECIALLY
IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY SINCE JUST BEFORE NOON...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY 4 PM WHILE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER
INLAND...BUT MORE MISS THAN HIT FROM HIDALGO/BROOKS TO PERHAPS
EASTERN STARR/JIM HOGG TO CLOSE THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT...AND REDUCED TEMPERATURES IN THE WETTER/CLOUDIER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF U.S. 77 AS READINGS HAVE DIPPED INTO
THE 80S AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 AGAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FLAT/PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE GETTING
PINCHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS SOME TROUGHING SLIDES THROUGH EAST
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RESPONSE IN BOTH ECMWF/GFS IS TO ELONGATE RIDGE TOWARD WEST TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS DEEP S. TEXAS/RGV.
SO...FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BACK TO MAINLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE USUAL
BREAKOUT OF FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELDS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS
MORNING...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTED UP TO 750 MB WHICH WAS ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOWARD THE
COAST. STILL A STRIPE OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 SUNDAY
MORNING AND IT`S VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL
ACTUALLY PLAY OUT. PERSISTENCE MAY BE THE BEST PREDICTOR...BUT WITH
JUST A SMIDGE LOWER MOISTURE VALUES HAVE KEPT WORDING AS ISOLATED
VS. SCATTERED (FOR NOW) WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND MOTION TO
TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD MORE EAST TO WEST MOTION BUT NOTHING LIKE
EARLIER THIS WEEK AND MORE LIKE TODAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BUT
SOME WHO GET RAIN COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF
THE GAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE. THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TUESDAY AS A 500 MB
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN US AND A 500 MB LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW...GFS DEVELOPS IT OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THUS
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW
850 MB. THAT BEING SAID HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SMALL DIURNAL
WIND RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 9 TO 12 KNOTS OVER
THE GULF AT NIGHT DIPPING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
REVERSE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WHICH MAY WELL GO NEAR CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT.
SWELL CONTINUED AT 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD TODAY AT BUOY 42020 AND THE
TABS BUOY 40 NM EAST OF SOUTH PADRE...WAVES HAVE CONTINUE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE 3 FEET TODAY. WITH MINIMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT A
SLOW DECLINE IN EACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SEAS
DROP TOWARDS 2 FEET IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS
PRECIPITATION. THIS MORNING WE HAD BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...FOR NOW HAVE AS ISOLATED...SHIFTING TO LAND
DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/66
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
618 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WAS PRODUCING A PICTURE PERFECT AUTUMN-LIKE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD EASTERN
IA/WESTERN IL TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP A VERY LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA....GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH THE WIND DECOUPLES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. RAP BUFKIT
DEPICTING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE ALL THE WAY UP TO
500MB WHILE THE NAM SHOWS WINDS OF 10-15KT FROM 300 FEET AND ABOVE.
WHILE THE RAP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DECOUPLING/FOG...THE NAM
IS TOO WINDY. BESIDE THE WIND...ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BATCH OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...THIS MAY
SHUT DOWN FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL NEEDED FOR FOG. HAVE TO
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME DECOUPLING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...SO WILL STICK WITH
THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING FORECASTER ASSESS FURTHER.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR THESE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
SEASONABLY WARM/SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THAT COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING NARROW BAND OF
WEAK 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/BETTER RAIN CHANCES STAYING MAINLY
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WHERE NAM BUFKIT
INDICATING CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO RELEASE SOME CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF WASHES THIS
TROUGH OUT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS IT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. RESULT IS LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOWING MASSIVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...DRIED THIS PERIOD OUT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR AVIATION INTERESTS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR VALLEY
FOG OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVERHEAD TONIGHT...
AND WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COOL TEMPS THERE IS A GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING. RECENT RAINFALL IS ALSO A PLUS...AS IS THE
RELATIVELY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES. BUT THERE ARE SOME NEGATIVES
AS WELL. RIDGE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURNING PRIOR TO MORNING. SO THE QUESTION
BECOMES...CAN THE INVERSION AND FOG DEVELOP BEFORE THE WIND
ARRIVES TO MIX THINGS UP. FEEL FOG IN THE WISCONSIN VALLEY IS A
SLAM DUNK FOR AIRPORTS LIKE KPDC AND KOVS. BUT KLSE WILL BE ON THE
EDGE. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE TIME OF YEAR...HISTORY SUGGESTS WE MAY
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE NEGATIVES. BUT WE ARE STARTING OUT REALLY
DRY WITH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS MORE THAN 20 DEGREES. PERUSAL OF MODEL
SOUNDINGS VIA BUFKIT SHOW THE DEPTH OF LIGHT WIND IS SUFFICIENT...
BUT RAP HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND A BIT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
10-12 KTS DEVELOPING JUST OFF THE DECK TO PROVIDE JUST A BIT TOO
MUCH MIXING. SO OVERALL...FEEL THERE WILL BE VALLEY FOG. BUT NOT
TOTALLY SOLD YET ON WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG. OPTED TO BEEF UP THE
KLSE TAF TO ADD A TEMPO GROUP FOR LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
SUNSET. WILL HOPE ENOUGH OF THE PUZZLE PIECES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE
06Z ISSUANCE TO PROVIDE A MORE DEFINITIVE ANSWER.
OTHER THAN THIS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUD AND SOUTHERLY BREEZES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW LOW
PRESSURE GATHERING STRENGTH OVER KANSAS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE INCREASING
IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE LOW ACROSS IOWA AND FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA.
A SECONDARY NARROW BAND OF RAIN IS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST OVER
WESTERN WI WITHIN A MID-LEVEL FGEN ZONE. LAST NITES COLD FRONT HAS
SETTLED FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO NORTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...BUT
CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT HAVE LINGERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DO NOT THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL MOVE MUCH WITH
THE FRONT NEARLY STALLED. AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT...RAIN TIMING AND AMOUNTS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO CENTRAL LAKE HURON. ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...FORCING IN
THE FORM OF MID-LEVEL FGEN AND UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BE EXCELLENT.
A SECONDARY BAND OF FGEN WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WI FOR
THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SO ANTICIPATE THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE RAIN TO
PUSH NORTHEAST THIS EVENING FROM THE PLAINS AND SPREAD ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM MID-EVENING THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE SECONDARY BAND OF RAIN SHOULD ALSO IMPACT
NORTH-CENTRAL WI EARLY TO MID-EVENING BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN. MID-LEVEL THETAE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE CHANCE
OF THUNDER IS RATHER LOW...BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF THE
FORCING...WILL LEAVE A CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD BE RATHER BEEFY OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WI...POSSIBLY OVER AN INCH. BUT THE QUICK MOTION OF THE LOW
SUGGESTS THE CHANCE OF FLOODING IS TOO LOW TO MENTION. THE RAIN
WILL BE PULLING OUT LATE TONIGHT AND SOME CLEARING COULD ALREADY BE
MOVING INTO THE I-39/ROUTE 51 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S.
SATURDAY...WITH THE RAIN EXPECTED TO HAVE EXITED ACROSS THE REGION
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY THE DOOR...CLEARING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE MORNING. AMPLE SUNSHINE SHOULD
THEN RETURN FOR THE AFTERNOON WHEN HIGHS SHOULD REACH FROM THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 213 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FCST FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AND BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN RECENT RAIN...LIGHT WINDS
AND CLEAR SKIES. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW SPOTS IN NORTH CENTRAL
WI DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND AS SW WINDS DEVELOP AND INCREASE ON THE NW PERIPHERY OF THE
SFC HIGH.
MODELS ARE SHOWING A WEAK FRONT MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION FOR
THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...PASSING THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LIFTING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN RETURNING AS A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
ANTICIPATED...MOST NOTABLY OVER THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...
THEN RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL AT THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015
MVFR CIGS OVER EAST-CENTRAL WI WILL IMPROVE BY MID-
AFTERNOON TO VFR THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER AT MTW DUE TO ITS
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A COLD FRONT. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG
THIS COLD FRONT TONIGHT...BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
REGION. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WI WHERE IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT
IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OUT...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION BY MID-MORNING ON SATURDAY.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
436 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. PREDAWN
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 60S
CENTRAL...TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE LOWER 50S.
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO SLOW
DOWN POPS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT POPS ARE TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NMM SHOWING PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NATURAL STATE. INCREASED CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
KEPT POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRIES
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...AND AS THAT COMES
ONSHORE...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS IT APPROACHES AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 77 55 79 57 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 83 61 84 62 / 30 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 74 56 79 59 / 20 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 61 84 61 / 30 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 61 83 61 / 20 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 62 85 61 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 79 59 83 59 / 40 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 55 79 58 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 78 55 80 56 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 60 84 59 / 20 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 59 82 60 / 30 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 80 56 80 57 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 80 58 82 58 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...226
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1115 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
UPDATED TO ADD POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS BASED ON
RADAR AND HRRR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
A SHORTWAVE TROF WL BE MOVING ACRS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SUN. THE NAM SHOWS SOME ISOLD PCPN DEVELOPING LATER TODAY OVER
SOME OF THE MTNS AND THEN SPREADING EAST TONIGHT ACRS THE PLAINS.
THE LATEST HRRR IS DRY THRU ABOUT 00Z AND THEN IT SHOWS SOME ISOLD
PCPN DEVELOPING OVR THE ERN PLAINS WHICH THEN EXITS THE STATE AROUND
07Z. MEASURABLE PCPN CHANCES LOOK QUITE LOW TONIGHT SO WL KEEP
POPS MINIMAL. OVER NIGHT LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WL BE IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S ACRS THE PLAINS...WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS. ALAMOSA AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS SHOULD HAVE LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.
ON SUN AN UPR RIDGE WL START BUILDING BACK OVR THE AREA...BUT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WL BRUSH NE AND E CENTRAL CO IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME IT LOOKS LIKE DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUN...WITH HIGH TEMPS BEING WARMER THAN TODAY AND AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
...DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...
LOOKS LIKE THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER THAT HAS DEFINED SEPTEMBER IN
SE CO IS HERE TO STAY...AT LEAST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
MONDAY...SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND SW FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM. TEMPS COULD GET INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER PORTIONS OF THE
SE PLAINS. POPS WILL REMAIN BASICALLY NIL...EVEN FOR THE MT AREAS.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SUBTROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE BAJA REGION ON TUE AND INTO THE DESERT SW...IN A
TRAJECTORY THAT WILL MOVE IT THROUGH NW CO ON WED. THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE SW MTS TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT
LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE QPF WILL FALL OVER AZ...SO FLASH FLOODING
RISK SHOULD BE LESS...BUT WILL STILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
LOCALIZED MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN. THE SYSTEM THEN SHEARS OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES...LEAVING ONLY SPOTTY CONVECTION FOR THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS
ON WED. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 80S FOR THE PLAINS...OR ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WILL SEE A SLIGHT FRONTAL PUSH ON THU BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM...BUT DUE TO ITS SW-NE TRAJECTORY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THE TROUGH...SO TEMPS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE
70S AND 80S FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH DRY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW
BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA...POPS WILL REMAIN LOW.
NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT WX WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
NEXT SATURDAY...AS A PACNW SYSTEM STARTS TO ADVANCE EWD INTO THE
ROCKIES. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS DELIVERS ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE
AREA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. ENSEMBLE SPREADS ARE NOT VERY WIDE...AND
SHOW A GENERALLY WEAK SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING INTO THE AREA BY EARLY
THE FOLLOWING WEEK. SO...NOT MUCH HOPE FOR ANY INTERESTING WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF SEPTEMBER...BUT IT WILL PROBABLY BE A GOOD TIME
TO GET OUTSIDE PROJECTS DONE. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM MDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WIND REGIMES
EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
119 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL NY AND APPROACHING EASTERN NY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CNTRL NY...AND IS
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADIRONDACKS AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND SINCE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED FOR A WHILE
NOW...WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME WIND GUSTS BTWN 25-30 KTS WITH THE
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WEAKENING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND PORTIONS OF SRN VT...AND
EXTENDED LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH CHC
TO SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION 2 AM AND 6 AM. EXPECTING LOWS WILL STILL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BREEZY DAY WITH SUN IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY A CLEAR
SKY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHES OF FROST IN THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST BUT
STILL CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPPER
ENERGY BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AREA COULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF PRODUCING SOME
PERIODS OF FILTERED SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND ANY
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WOULD BE VERY SLOW AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OCCUR...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH 40S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...BUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND A COOL DOWN TO SEASONAL READINGS IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IS IN CONTROL
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE MIDWEST WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK TO LITTLE COLD ADVECTION WITH
THIS FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LOWS TUE NIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS ON WED...AND M60S TO NEAR
70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...FAIR AND PLEASANT LATE SEPT WX CONTINUES
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER SRN CANADA...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WEAK MID AND UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SW QUEBEC ACCORDING TO THE GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.
THE GFS TRIES TO FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...THE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES WITH LOWS SIMILAR EACH NIGHT WITH U40S TO L50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
FRI INTO SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF TO THE
SOUTH THAT THE GFS NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST...AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED AGAIN. WE KEPT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TACONICS...AND MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM N-CNTRL ONTARIO WITH COOLER TEMPS. H850
TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C ON FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FALL TO +3C TO
+8C ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND TEMPS SHOULD FINISH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA AND WILL ONLY IMPACT THE TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH THE SHOWERS AS THEY
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE EAST. IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT EXPECT SOME STRATOCU FOLLOWED BY CLEARING ON SUNDAY WITH
SKIES BECOMING SKC BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE THE S TO SW AT 5-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM KALB NORTHWARD DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW BTWN 06Z-11Z...AND
THEN THE NW TO N AT 8-12 KTS AT 11Z-14Z. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHERLY
BY THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM VALUES RH OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
15 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1235 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND MORE
SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE IN CONTROL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1235 AM EDT...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS NRN
AND CNTRL NY AND APPROACHING EASTERN NY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS CONTINUES ACROSS EAST CNTRL NY...AND IS
MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHEAST ADRIONDACKS AND
SCHOHARIE VALLEY. THE 00Z KALY SOUNDING SHOWS LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY AND SINCE NO LIGHTNING HAS BEEN DETECTED FOR A WHILE
NOW...WE HAVE REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS HAVE SHOWN SOME WIND GUSTS BWTN 25-30 KTS WITH THE
FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR LAYER MAX REF PRODUCT SHOWS THE BAND OF
SHOWERS WEAKENING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAVE KEPT
LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE SRN DACKS...WRN MOHAWK
VALLEY...LAKE GEORGE REGION...AND PORTIONS OF SRN VT...AND
EXTENDED LIKELY FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...WITH CHC
TO SLIGHT CHC FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST.
THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...AND THE COLD ADVECTION IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL
SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION 2 AM AND 6 AM. EXPECTING LOWS WILL STILL
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME U40S ARE POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BREEZY DAY WITH SUN IN THE MORNING...THEN SOME INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING AND SOME
MOISTURE OFF THE GREAT LAKES. STILL...MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS...BUT WITH
STRONG COLD ADVECTION...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S...LOWER TO MID 60S HIGHER TERRAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA AND THEN CENTERS ITSELF OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY A CLEAR
SKY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 40S IN MOST AREAS...WITH
SOME UPPER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE AREA.
WILL JUST HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED
AREAS DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
PATCHES OF FROST IN THOSE AREAS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS EAST BUT
STILL CONTROLS OUR WEATHER. SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM UPPER
ENERGY BUILDING SLOWLY NORTH FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AREA COULD FILTER INTO OUR REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BUT WOULD ONLY HAVE THE EFFECT OF PRODUCING SOME
PERIODS OF FILTERED SUN. WINDS SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT AND ANY
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES WOULD BE VERY SLOW AS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST.
HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. LOW
TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS ONCE AGAIN...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A CLEAR
SKY AND LIGHT WINDS OCCUR...WHICH COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S...WITH 40S FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE PREDOMINATELY DRY
WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE NORMAL AS WE ENTER THE LAST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...BUT BY NEXT
WEEKEND A COOL DOWN TO SEASONAL READINGS IS EXPECTED.
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY IS IN CONTROL
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...AND THE MIDWEST WITH FAIR AND
DRY WEATHER. A MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK TO LITTLE COLD ADVECTION WITH
THIS FRONT...AS THE BOUNDARY WEAKENS PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA.
LOWS TUE NIGHT ARE GENERALLY IN THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE REGION
WITH HIGHS IN LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEYS ON WED...AND M60S TO NEAR
70F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT...FAIR AND PLEASANT LATE SEPT WX CONTINUES
AS THE MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL OVER SRN CANADA...THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION...AND NRN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WEAK MID AND UPPER
RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL BUILD IN. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM SW QUEBEC ACCORDING TO THE GFS/WPC GUIDANCE.
THE GFS TRIES TO FORM A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW THIS FEATURE. OVERALL...THE
SFC HIGH DOMINATES WITH LOWS SIMILAR EACH NIGHT WITH U40S TO L50S
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO M70S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
FRI INTO SAT...SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK OF THE CUTOFF TO THE
SOUTH THAT THE GFS NUDGES SLIGHTLY NORTH AND EAST...AND ANOTHER COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES SOUTH OF THE REGION. THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS MOISTURE
STARVED AGAIN. WE KEPT AS SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
TACONICS...AND MOST OF WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FRI NIGHT. A LARGE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM N-CNTRL ONTARIO WITH COOLER TEMPS. H850
TEMPS OF +10C TO +12C ON FRI ACCORDING TO THE GFS...FALL TO +3C TO
+8C ON SAT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO SEASONAL
NORMALS...WITH MID AND U60S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
OVERALL...PCPN WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...AND TEMPS SHOULD FINISH ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.
A BAND OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BTWN 02Z-
06Z FROM KALB-KPSF NORTHWARD. THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
WEAKEN FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS KPOU. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
THICKEN AND LOWER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH PREDOMINATELY MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS PRIOR TO 03Z. THE BEST CHC OF MVFR VSBYS OR CIGS WITH
THE SHOWERS WILL BE AT KGFL AND KPSF. TEMPO GROUPS WERE USED BTWN
02Z-06Z. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH A TEMPO GROUP USED FROM
03Z-06Z AT KALB. A VCSH GROUP WAS USED AT KPOU BTWN 06Z-09Z.
EXPECT CIGS TO RECOVER TO VFR LEVELS AT 3.5-6 KFT AGL. THESE
CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY FROM 11Z-14Z FROM NW TO SE ACROSS ERN
AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WITH THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND COLD ADVECTION
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM THE LATE
MORNING THRU THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE THE S TO SW AT 5-12 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH
THE STRONGER WINDS FROM KALB NORTHWARD DUE TO FUNNELING UP THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS ARE POSSIBLE AT
KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL VEER TO THE W/NW BTWN 06Z-11Z...AND
THEN THE NW TO N AT 8-12 KTS AT 11Z-14Z. SOME GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB/KPOU/KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AROUND 40 PERCENT...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL CROSS OUR
REGION TONIGHT BRINGING SOME SHOWERS AND USHERING IN A COOLER AND
MORE SEASONABLE AIR MASS FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MAXIMUM VALUES RH OF 85 TO 100 PERCENT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MINIMUM RH VALUES SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 35 TO 45 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT...BECOMING
NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH. WINDS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AROUND 15 MPH WITH SOME
INTERMITTENT GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW
15 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED. SHOWERS WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS WHERE ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE GENERALLY A TENTH OF AN
INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE RAINFALL WILL HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY
IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS.
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. RIVER FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RECEDE INTO NEXT WEEK.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...NAS/JPV/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
234 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...Updated Long Term Section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Active weather will be occurring just south of our region today
across western Oklahoma, but some of the low level moisture will
push into southwest Kansas. At this time, it appears that IFR/MVFR
ceilings in stratus at GCK and/or DDC are at a low enough
probability to keep out of the TAF, but the time frame from 12-15z
today will need to be watched, as the NAM and GFS models suggest
mean RH in the 1000-3000 foot range will be around 75 to 90 percent.
Should a ceiling develop, it will scatter out in the 18-21z time
frame. South winds will prevail at around 11 to 15 knots. Late
tonight into early Monday morning, abundant low level moisture will
be in place for potential fog formation across much of the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 58 89 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 80 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 83 56 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 91 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 81 59 87 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 78 60 87 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
124 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...Updated Aviation and Short Term Sections...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 135 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
Much drier conditions are likely through early next week as medium
range models indicate an upper level ridge of high pressure
developing across the Desert Southwest Sunday and building
northeastward into the Western High Plains Monday and Tuesday.
Combined with a weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability across the high plains, dry conditions are likely to
persist through at least Tuesday night. A general warming trend is
likely to continue through at least Tuesday as well due to a
prevailing southerly flow across western Kansas while the upper
level ridging mentioned earlier builds in across the Western High
Plains. Highs will climb back up into the lower to mid 90s(F)
across southwest and portions of central Kansas Monday and
Tuesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Active weather will be occurring just south of our region today
across western Oklahoma, but some of the low level moisture will
push into southwest Kansas. At this time, it appears that IFR/MVFR
ceilings in stratus at GCK and/or DDC are at a low enough
probability to keep out of the TAF, but the time frame from 12-15z
today will need to be watched, as the NAM and GFS models suggest
mean RH in the 1000-3000 foot range will be around 75 to 90 percent.
Should a ceiling develop, it will scatter out in the 18-21z time
frame. South winds will prevail at around 11 to 15 knots. Late
tonight into early Monday morning, abundant low level moisture will
be in place for potential fog formation across much of the region.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 78 58 89 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 80 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 83 56 92 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 91 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 81 59 87 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 78 60 87 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Umscheid
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE
WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEWPOINTS FALL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE...AND THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA. TRICKY TEMP GRADIENT INFLUENCED NOT ONLY BY THE EAST
TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
IN COOLER AIR. DEEP POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INDICATED...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO RUC ANALYSIS. WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES IN LOW INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TO
FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER
RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...DESPITE AFTN HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND QUESTIONABLE AS NO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR
AREA. HOWEVER..LARGE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES MAY BEGIN TO
ASSIST IN MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LVL E-SE FLOW FOR OUR AREA./VII/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10
MLU 90 63 89 63 / 20 50 30 10
DEQ 83 62 86 63 / 40 50 10 10
TXK 84 63 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 85 62 86 62 / 30 50 30 10
TYR 92 68 91 71 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 92 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 10
LFK 94 69 92 68 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
1230 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL BRING SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS. COASTAL PLAIN FOG IS LIKELY AS WELL. COOLER AIR AND
FAIR WEATHER WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER NEXT WEEK...THEY WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE DAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY
WEATHER. LOWS WILL BE CHILLY WITH HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVERHEAD
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1225 AM...SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST POPS...MORE TO
REFINE THE TIMING...AND SHOW HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE N...AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHC ACROSS SRN NH. T/TD WERE UPDATED A BIT AS WELL.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS WILL CROSS THE CWA NOW THROUGH ABOUT 10-11Z.
930 PM UPDATE... A FEW ECHOES SHOWING UP ON RADAR NOW AS
PRECIPITATION MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS NH AND MAINE. LATEST HRRR HAS
THE RAIN ARRIVING AROUND 03-04Z OR 11 PM TO MIDNIGHT IN NH AND
05-06Z IN THE MAINE MOUNTAINS. A LARGE AREA OF STRATUS HAS SPREAD
TO COVER MOST OF WESTERN MAINE EXCEPT FOR FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS
AND JUST ALONG THE NH/ME BORDER. STRATUS WILL PROBABLY NOT MOVE
ANY FARTHER NORTH DUE TO HIGHER CLOUDS IN THE AREA. FORECAST IS ON
TRACK FOR TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FRONT WILL LIKELY MOVE OFFSHORE BY AROUND SUNRISE SO ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE OVER BY SUNDAY MORNING. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING IN DRIER AIR. MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW GOOD HEATING TO OCCUR IN SPITE OF THE COLD
ADVECTION. DOWNSLOPING WINDS ALLOW THE COASTAL PLAIN TO WARM INTO
THE 70S ALONG WITH SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. NORTHERN AREAS STAY IN
THE MID 60S.
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN BRINGING LIGHT WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALREADY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S BY THIS EVENING...
SO EXPECT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S BEFORE FOG
BEGINS TO FORM. COASTAL AREAS WILL FALL INTO THE 40S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH TO TALK ABOUT IN THE LONG TERM. THE PATTERN OVER NEW
ENGLAND WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THIS MEANS LITTLE TO
NO RAINFALL THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH AVERAGE TO ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHILLY NIGHTS WITH VALLEY
FOG. COASTAL LOW PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD STAY FAR ENOUGH
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD TO KEEP ANY SHOWERS AT BAY...BUT MAY SPILL A
FEW CLOUDS INTO OUR REGION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...OCEAN STRATUS AND FOG WILL LIKELY MOVE ONSHORE THIS
EVENING AND BRING LIFR CONDITIONS TO ROCKLAND... PORTLAND... AND
AUGUSTA AT SOME POINT TONIGHT. SHOWERS MOVE IN ALONG AND AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT BUT WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT LEBANON AND WHITEFIELD AND
MAY NOT REDUCE CONDITIONS BELOW VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT AND DRYING BEGINS. ALTHOUGH FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
THE NEW HAMPSHIRE VALLEYS TONIGHT IT IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO INITIAL
CLOUD COVER AND SUBSEQUENT NORTHWEST WINDS AND DRIER AIR MOVING
IN. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY MORNING WITH FOG
LIKELY IN ALL VALLEY LOCATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
DURING THE DAYS WITH AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN VALLEY
FOG EACH NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...ONSHORE SOUTH WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KT BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT AND SHIFTS WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. NORTHWEST WINDS COULD GUST TO 25 KT OR SO SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MAY WARRANT AN ADVISORY.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
THRESHOLDS SUNDAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME 5 FOOT
SWELLS COULD AFFECT THE WATERS TOWARD MIDWEEK.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEMPA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A DRY WSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS WL BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. MAINTAINED FCST
LLWS FOR CMX EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PLACEMENT OF STRONGER LLJ
WINDS ABOVE RADIATION INVRN AT THAT SITE. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
MARGINAL FOR LLWS AT IWD/SAW...SO LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN AT THE
MORE EXPOSED IWD LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES SLIDES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE MONDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
502 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A DRY WSW FLOW ARND HI PRES MOVING THRU THE LOWER GREAT LKS WL BRING
VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. MAINTAINED FCST
LLWS FOR CMX EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD GIVEN PLACEMENT OF STRONGER LLJ
WINDS ABOVE RADIATION INVRN AT THAT SITE. CONDITIONS ARE MORE
MARGINAL FOR LLWS AT IWD/SAW...SO LEFT OUT OF THE FCST. THE ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE SOME GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTN AT THE
MORE EXPOSED IWD LOCATION.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT SAT SEP 19 2015
GUSTY N WINDS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS E...IN
BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND NEARING HIGH. A RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE MAIN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER S WI AND IA TONIGHT EXPANDS ACROSS LAKE MI AND LAKE
ERIE BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXIT TO THE
NEW ENGLAND STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE NEAR LAKE WINNIPEG
EARLY MONDAY WILL DEEPEN ACROSS HUDSON BAY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON
TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING
FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION
WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NRN IL AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE WRN DKTS INTO THE NE PNHDL. OUR AREA WAS IN S/SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE
WAS RETURNING WITH A 20-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. PW VALUES WERE
APPROACHING ONE INCH IN NERN NE. HAD THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING A
LOW POP FOR ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...
MAINLY NW OF LINCOLN AND OMAHA. SOME PAST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL
RUNS HAD BEEN HINTING AT THAT...AND SHOWED 200-400 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE (BASES AROUND 700 MB). HOWEVER MOST RECENT RUNS
ARE DRY AND RECENT IR STLT PIX SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING.
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN WITH THE SLY FLOW THIS
AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND MIXING TO ABOUT 2500-3000
FEET AGL. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS IN OUR WRN COUNTIES. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM SCNTRL NE INTO WRN
IA...BUT FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SINCE IT APPEARS BETTER
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA BY THAT TIME.
TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES
LATE...BUT CHANCES SEEM HIGHER FARTHER S ON THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT AGAIN AROUND 305K. DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AT
THIS TIME...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
AND WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING SOME LOW POPS IN THOSE PERIODS. CURRENT
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO SHOW CHANCES QUITE AS GOOD AS PREVIOUS RUNS
BUT KEPT THINGS ABOUT AS THEY WERE FOR CONTINUITY. ALSO...THE 00Z
GFS DID SHOW SOME POTENTIAL. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WARM AS THE SLY FLOW PERSISTS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...THEN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE FROM WED INTO THU AS THIS MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST GOING FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
SHOW THAT A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A RIDGE FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL START IN THE 80S WED...COOL A
BIT FOR THU/FRI THEN MODERATE BACK TOWARD UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY
SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL THREE SITES.
A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS MAY PRODUCE
SCT-BKN LAYER OF MID CLOUDS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AS SYSTEM TRACKS
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
209 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS RAPID CLEARING TO THE
WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TERMINALS WITH LINGERING MVFR
SHOWERS ONLY EXPECTED AT KAVP UNTIL 07Z. BEHIND FRONT OCCASIONAL
MVFR/LOW MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL DAYBREAK ESPECIALLY AT
KRME/KITH/KBGM. BETWEEN 12Z-14Z SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT WITH
FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE VFR THROUGH 06Z
WITH JUST SCATTERED CI.
NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THEN SLIGHTLY VEERING AFTER SUNRISE BUT
REMAINING AROUND 10 KNOTS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 66 88 67 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 80 66 93 67 / 70 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 68 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 81 64 93 66 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 64 86 67 / 20 30 10 0
DURANT OK 79 67 91 67 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
26/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1241 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUD COVER LIMITED TO MIDLEVEL DECK AROUND 10000
FT...WHICH SHOULD THIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. CU FIELD WILL BUILD
AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A FEW SEABREEZE SHOWERS DEVELOPING
LATE MORNING NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...VFR TONIGHT. JUST A FEW LINGERING SEA BREEZE EVENT
SHOWERS NEAR MCALLEN THIS EVENING...THEN LOOKING AT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. FEW TO SCT CU WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING
AND LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SUPPORT A SEA BREEZE AGAIN.
BOTH THE HRRR AND NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THAT POINT. HAVE
INCLUDED TEMPO SHRA GROUPS FOR BOTH BRO AND HRL...WITH A LITTLE
LESS CERTAINTY AT MFE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015/
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN PESKY ESPECIALLY
IN CAMERON AND WILLACY COUNTY SINCE JUST BEFORE NOON...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WIND DOWN BY 4 PM WHILE SHIFTING A BIT FARTHER
INLAND...BUT MORE MISS THAN HIT FROM HIDALGO/BROOKS TO PERHAPS
EASTERN STARR/JIM HOGG TO CLOSE THE DAY. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT...AND REDUCED TEMPERATURES IN THE WETTER/CLOUDIER AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF U.S. 77 AS READINGS HAVE DIPPED INTO
THE 80S AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 AGAIN.
TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: THE FLAT/PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE REMAINS
PARKED OVER SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH THE RIDGE GETTING
PINCHED INTO SOUTH TEXAS AS SOME TROUGHING SLIDES THROUGH EAST
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA/ARKANSAS/LOUISIANA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
RESPONSE IN BOTH ECMWF/GFS IS TO ELONGATE RIDGE TOWARD WEST TEXAS
AND NEW MEXICO WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ACROSS DEEP S. TEXAS/RGV.
SO...FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...BACK TO MAINLY CLEAR AND MOSTLY CALM
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE USUAL
BREAKOUT OF FEW-SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELDS BY MID MORNING SUNDAY. THIS
MORNING...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE EXISTED UP TO 750 MB WHICH WAS ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE THE AFOREMENTIONED ISOLATED-SCATTERED ACTIVITY TOWARD THE
COAST. STILL A STRIPE OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 850 AND 700 SUNDAY
MORNING AND IT`S VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL
ACTUALLY PLAY OUT. PERSISTENCE MAY BE THE BEST PREDICTOR...BUT WITH
JUST A SMIDGE LOWER MOISTURE VALUES HAVE KEPT WORDING AS ISOLATED
VS. SCATTERED (FOR NOW) WITH SIMILAR TIMING AND MOTION TO
TODAY...PERHAPS A TAD MORE EAST TO WEST MOTION BUT NOTHING LIKE
EARLIER THIS WEEK AND MORE LIKE TODAY. MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY BUT
SOME WHO GET RAIN COULD SEE 0.5 TO 1 INCH...SIMILAR TO TODAY.
SKIES CLEAR OUT ONCE AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...PERSISTENCE IS THE NAME OF
THE GAME FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE REGION REMAINS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 500 MB RIDGE. THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TUESDAY AS A 500 MB
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN US AND A 500 MB LOW CUTS OFF FROM THE
MAIN FLOW WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE
LOCATION OF THE CUTOFF LOW...GFS DEVELOPS IT OVER THE MIDATLANTIC
WHILE THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF DEVELOPS THE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS...THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER SUBSIDENCE AND NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...THUS
MAINTAINING A FAIRLY DRY AIRMASS...WITH MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW
850 MB. THAT BEING SAID HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
COUNTIES...CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...EXPECT THE SMALL DIURNAL
WIND RANGE TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH 9 TO 12 KNOTS OVER
THE GULF AT NIGHT DIPPING TO 5 TO 8 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...WITH THE
REVERSE FOR THE LAGUNA MADRE WHICH MAY WELL GO NEAR CALM AFTER
MIDNIGHT EACH NIGHT.
SWELL CONTINUED AT 7 TO 8 SECOND PERIOD TODAY AT BUOY 42020 AND THE
TABS BUOY 40 NM EAST OF SOUTH PADRE...WAVES HAVE CONTINUE AT OR A
LITTLE ABOVE 3 FEET TODAY. WITH MINIMAL PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECT A
SLOW DECLINE IN EACH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WILL SEE SEAS
DROP TOWARDS 2 FEET IN MOST AREAS. THE ONLY OTHER ISSUE IS
PRECIPITATION. THIS MORNING WE HAD BANDS OF SHOWERS OVER THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE EXPECT
REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT...FOR NOW HAVE AS ISOLATED...SHIFTING TO LAND
DURING THE DAY. KEPT A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE VALUES.
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT
TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH LOW
TO MODERATE SEAS.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
64/64
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY REGION WAS PRODUCING A PICTURE PERFECT AUTUMN-LIKE DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH SUNNY SKIES AND COMFORTABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 65-70 DEGREE RANGE.
CENTER OF THIS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST TOWARD EASTERN
IA/WESTERN IL TONIGHT. THIS SETS UP A VERY LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA....GENERALLY 5 TO 10 MPH.
CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH THE WIND DECOUPLES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL. RAP BUFKIT
DEPICTING FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE 5-10KT RANGE ALL THE WAY UP TO
500MB WHILE THE NAM SHOWS WINDS OF 10-15KT FROM 300 FEET AND ABOVE.
WHILE THE RAP WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DECOUPLING/FOG...THE NAM
IS TOO WINDY. BESIDE THE WIND...ANOTHER NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE A BATCH OF CIRRUS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. IF CIRRUS IS THICK ENOUGH...THIS MAY
SHUT DOWN FULL RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL NEEDED FOR FOG. HAVE TO
BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME DECOUPLING IN THE RIVER VALLEYS/BOG
COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG...SO WILL STICK WITH
THIS FOR NOW AND LET THE EVENING FORECASTER ASSESS FURTHER.
OTHERWISE...PLAN ON COOL OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S ACROSS THE
SANDY/BOG COUNTRY OF CENTRAL WI...AND MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY TO RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL NORMALS
SUNDAY AS HIGHS TOP OFF IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS. LOOK FOR THESE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
SEASONABLY WARM/SOMEWHAT BREEZY MONDAY ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...PLAN ON
HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 70S.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WILL BE WATCHING THAT COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. MODELS SHOWING NARROW BAND OF
WEAK 850MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT/BETTER RAIN CHANCES STAYING MAINLY
NORTH OF OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER MAINLY FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTHERN WI ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WHERE NAM BUFKIT
INDICATING CAP MAY BE WEAK ENOUGH TO RELEASE SOME CONVECTION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY AGAIN WELL INTO THE 70S.
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION. THE ECMWF WASHES THIS
TROUGH OUT WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS IT AS IT DRIFTS ACROSS THE
REGION. RESULT IS LOW-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD.
LATEST ECMWF/GFS SHOWING MASSIVE RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AS A RESULT...DRIED THIS PERIOD OUT.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK TO BE
CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE UPPER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT SEP 19 2015
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN. MUCH
LIKE THE EARLIER THINKING...STILL FEELING THERE WILL BE VALLEY FOG
BUT IT MAY BE LIMITED BY INCREASING WIND JUST OFF THE DECK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. RIDGE AXIS IS PRETTY MUCH
OVERHEAD AT 04Z/05Z. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE SHRUNK TO ONLY A
FEW DEGREES. KRST OBSERVATIONS AND THOSE NEARBY HAVE ALREADY
STARTED SHOWING LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND. FURTHER EAST...
KLSE/KPDC/KOVS ALL BASICALLY CALM DOWN IN THE VALLEYS. A LOOK OUT
THE WINDOW SHOWS THAT LIGHT FUZZ IS ALREADY FORMING IN THE RIVER
VALLEY OVER THE CITY OF LA CROSSE. SO I HAVE INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT WE WILL INDEED SEE VALLEY FOG...AT LEAST FROM KLSE SOUTH AND
EAST. COULD EVEN BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THAT IF THE FOG CAN
FORM...AND THE INVERSION CAN BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE WIND
FROM MIXING IT OUT. WILL MAINTAIN THE KLSE TAF THE SAME AS THE 00Z
ISSUANCE...BUT OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE LATEST
TRENDS IN CASE A MORE PESSIMISTIC LIFR PERIOD IS NEEDED AROUND
DAYBREAK.
BEYOND THAT...VFR SHOULD PREVAIL ON SUNDAY...WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
BREEZES. TOWARD EVENING...MODELS SHOW INCREASING MID CLOUD SO
ADDED THAT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
620 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARE
DRIFTING EAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
AOA 10-15KFT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 4-8KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. PREDAWN
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 60S
CENTRAL...TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE LOWER 50S.
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO SLOW
DOWN POPS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT POPS ARE TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NMM SHOWING PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NATURAL STATE. INCREASED CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
KEPT POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRIES
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...AND AS THAT COMES
ONSHORE...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS IT APPROACHES AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 77 55 79 57 / 10 10 0 0
CAMDEN AR 83 61 84 62 / 30 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 74 56 79 59 / 20 10 10 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 61 84 61 / 30 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 61 83 61 / 20 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 85 62 85 61 / 20 20 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 79 59 83 59 / 40 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 76 55 79 58 / 10 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 78 55 80 56 / 10 10 0 0
PINE BLUFF AR 81 60 84 59 / 20 20 10 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 78 59 82 60 / 30 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 80 56 80 57 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 80 58 82 58 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...226
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
908 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level shortwave trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly developing
across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure is slowly developing across extreme eastern
Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR to possibly MVFR category stratus was expanding across south
central Kansas this morning, and just east of the KDDC terminal.
Cielings are much higher than the RAP model suggested. As surface
moisture advection continues to increase this morning, it is
possible lower cielings may work farther north into KS from
western Oklahoma. At this time, the uncertainty is quite high, and
we will not carry any MVFR/IFR conditions in the TAFs, but
continue to monitor the trends. The NAM was simulating Fog
development along the nose of the moisture axis later tonight,
however this is not yet reflected in the GFS LAMP guidance, and
we will not include it in the terminal yet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 59 88 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 82 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 84 57 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 83 59 86 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 79 61 88 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
703 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...updated aviation section...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR to possibly MVFR category stratus was expanding across south
central Kansas this morning, and just east of the KDDC terminal.
Cielings are much higher than the RAP model suggested. As surface
moisture advection continues to increase this morning, it is
possible lower cielings may work farther north into KS from
western Oklahoma. At this time, the uncertainty is quite high, and
we will not carry any MVFR/IFR conditions in the TAFs, but
continue to monitor the trends. The NAM was simulating Fog
development along the nose of the moisture axis later tonight,
however this is not yet reflected in the GFS LAMP guidance, and
we will not include it in the terminal yet.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 59 88 64 / 10 0 0 10
GCK 82 57 91 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 84 57 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 82 59 86 64 / 10 0 0 10
P28 79 61 88 65 / 20 0 10 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
641 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
ALL IS QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. IR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWING 8-10KFT CEILINGS ACROSS AR INTO N LA WITH
THIS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA INTO NE TX. WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND/OR NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE STARTED MOST TERMINAL WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH VCTS (18Z-21Z) AND CONTINUING THAT TREND INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 4-8KTS.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE
WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEWPOINTS FALL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE...AND THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA. TRICKY TEMP GRADIENT INFLUENCED NOT ONLY BY THE EAST
TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
IN COOLER AIR. DEEP POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INDICATED...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO RUC ANALYSIS. WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES IN LOW INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TO
FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER
RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...DESPITE AFTN HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND QUESTIONABLE AS NO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR
AREA. HOWEVER..LARGE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES MAY BEGIN TO
ASSIST IN MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LVL E-SE FLOW FOR OUR AREA.
/VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10
MLU 90 63 89 63 / 20 50 30 10
DEQ 83 62 86 63 / 40 50 10 10
TXK 84 63 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 85 62 86 62 / 30 50 30 10
TYR 92 68 91 71 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 92 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 10
LFK 94 69 92 68 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
VII/13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1201 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR CEILINGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. IWD COULD
EXPERIENCE SOME GUSTS NEAR 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING S WINDS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE LARGE SFC HIGH TO OUR S EXITS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...AND
DEEP LOW PRESSURE RESIDES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. GETTING CLOSE TO
LLWS CRITERIA AT IWD AND CMX OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING WITH 25-
30KT WINDS ABOVE THE SFC. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES SLIDES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE MONDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
742 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 500 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED CONFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
INTO THE NRN GREAT LAKES AS RIDGING EDGES INTO NRN ONTARIO. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WAS ONLY PRODUCING AREAS OF
MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO ERN SD AND SRN MN. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS
INCREASING FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES BETWEEN HIGH
PRES OVER THE SRN LAKES AND A TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI WITH A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS JUST TO
THE SOUTH FROM DLH THROUGH NRN WI.
TODAY...EXPECT THE SFC RIDGE TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE AREA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS...PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND MIXING THROUGH 850
MB TEMPS AROUND 10C WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
TONIGHT...SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THE SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE ERN
LAKES AND LOW PRES MOVES INTO SRN MANITOBA. ALTHOUGH SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR...WITH GREATER MIXING FROM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
IN THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE... LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER
THE INTERIOR WEST TO THE MID 50S ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN DOWNSLOPING
SW FLOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS THE JET
STREAM TRACKS WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION TO START THE LONG TERM FORECAST...AS THE REGION IS BETWEEN
THE A SURFACE HIGH IN THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND A SURFACE LOW JUST
TO THE NORTH OF LAKE WINNIPEG. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT
TO THE NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND DRAG A COLD
FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...EXPECT A NICE BUT
SLIGHTLY BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER SOME
ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO GET
GUSTS IN THE 15-25KT RANGE DUE TO THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MOVING INTO HUDSON BAY WILL
BE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
WOULD EXPECT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MOISTURE
AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LOOKS TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED AND LEADS TO
SOME CONCERN ON THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY MORNING.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS SLIDING ACROSS THE AREA
WITH THE FRONT (INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND ONLY 100-400 J/KG OF
MUCAPE AND WILL CONTINUE A THUNDER MENTION). A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND LEAD TO A QUIET PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE REMNANTS OF THE POTENTIAL TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
LIFT NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWESTERN US AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...BROAD MID LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION. THAT SETUP WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS THE THE TROPICAL REMNANTS STALL IN THE PLAINS. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON THE BEST PRECIPITATION
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR TO EASTERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
THE PLAINS. WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE WESTERN U.P. AND
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THINGS LINE UP
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER
THE PRECIPITATION AXIS (PWAT VALUES UP TO 1.5 INCHES OVER THE
WESTERN CWA). IN FACT...LOOKING AT KMPX PWAT CLIMO...GFS VALUES FOR
THURSDAY MORNING THERE HAVE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD PWATS.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY...AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES
FROM MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO AND SLIDES A RIDGE SOUTH INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES REGION. THAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 742 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
A DRY WSW FLOW ARND HIGH PRES MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LKS WL
BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO ALL 3 TAF SITES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE ONSET OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN SOME GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT
IS TIGHTER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES SLIDES TOWARD
NEW ENGLAND AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH SRN MANITOBA INTO NRN
ONTARIO...SW WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS TODAY WILL INCREASE INTO THE 20-25
KNOT RANGE MONDAY. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT ACROSS HUDSON BAY
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHILE DRAGGING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS
LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW...HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM N ALBERTA TO W MN TUESDAY MORNING WILL BUILD
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY...REINFORCED BY STRONGER HIGH
PRESSURE SINKING IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
941 AM MDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
NUDGED UP HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND INCREASED WIND
SPEEDS FROM AROUND KBIL W BASED ON HRRR SOUNDINGS. THE HRRR WAS
HANDLING THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE BETTER AT 12Z THAN OTHER
MODELS...WHICH WERE RUNNING TOO COOL AT 850-700 MB. A STRONG
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WAS PRODUCING LEE TROUGHING JUST E OF THE
MOUNTAINS BASED ON SURFACE ANALYSIS. THERE WAS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
W WY BUT ORIENTATION OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
GAP FLOW...SO MIXING WILL BE THE SUPPORT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS OVER
AND NEAR KLVM. ALSO A CHINOOK ARCH WAS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY IN THE LEE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH SOME CLOUDS ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE DIVIDE DUE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. BASED ON
THE OVERALL DRYNESS OF THE AIRMASS...THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD JUST
HAVE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
RAISING THE TEMPERATURES RESULTED IN LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HAVE THE GUSTY WINDS CENTRAL AND W...BUT
FUEL STATUSES FROM YESTERDAY WERE NOT SUPPORTIVE OF DANGEROUS
FIRE CONDITIONS SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE INHERITED HEADLINE ON
THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...
WE CURRENTLY HAVE NW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL
TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. WE DO HAVE A WEAK WAVE IN
THE FLOW WHICH WILL PASS OVER OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY/MONDAY
EVENING. ASSOCIATED PRESSURE RISES ARE UP ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER...SO I EXPECT TO SEE A FLAT COLD FRONT DROP INTO OUR AREA
MONDAY NIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE WITH SURFACE WINDS TURNING EASTERLY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. ALONG THIS FRONT WE MAY SEE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT ALOFT TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS. PROGGS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE IS ONLY UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION/THUNDER IN THE WEST...AND THUS KEPT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE WEST.
FORECAST PROBLEM WITH THIS PACKAGE IS MORE RELATED TO WIND. WIND
GUSTS HAVE BEEN STRONGER THAN EXPECTED OVER OUR CENTRAL ZONES
INCLUDING BILLINGS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WE MIXED OUT TO 600 MB
YESTERDAY AND TAPPED SOME DECENT WINDS. MIXING DOES NOT APPEAR
QUITE AS DEEP TODAY ON PROGGED SOUNDINGS...AND 700 MB WINDS ARE A
BIT WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY ON AVERAGE. THEREFORE...WE DO NOT EXPECT
QUITE AS WINDY A DAY AS YESTERDAY OVER BILLINGS AND OTHER CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ZONES.
THERE IS STILL ANOTHER ISSUE OF STRONG WINDS GETTING STRONGER JUST
OFF THE SURFACE SUNDAY EVENING WITH UP TO 35 KTS PROGGED AT ABOUT
775MB...AND MAY KEEP HIGHER HILLS MILD AND HUMIDITY DOWN FOR
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL IMPACT ANY POTENTIAL FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SUCH AS THE ARROWHEAD WILDFIRE NEAR COLUMBUS IF
IT IS STILL ONGOING. BT
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...
SEVERAL MINOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS
MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD...WITH MID 80S FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONAL OR COOLER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN SUNDAY.
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...BECOMES
INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS A PACIFIC TROF
SHIFTS EASTWARD. EVEN THOUGH SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO RETURN TO THE
REGION. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LITTLE OR NO PRECIP POTENTIAL IN HIGH
TERRAIN UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT/ FRIDAY MORNING. POPS IMPROVE
THEREAFTER AS MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INCREASES WITH IMPROVED
INSTABILITY...AND CONTINUED SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING TROF. TRENDED MOUNTAIN POPS UPWARD...WITH SLIGHT POPS
ACROSS PLAINS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DOES IMPROVE CURRENT MODEL RUN...GENERALLY POINTING TO
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY EVENING/ NIGHT...BRING HIGHS WELL
INTO 80S FOR FRIDAY...POSSIBLY SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
PREFRONTAL WARMING. THEREFORE KEPT TEMPS WARM FOR SATURDAY...EVEN
THOUGH GUIDANCE IS MUCH COOLER. PRECIP SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...BUT HAVE KEPT SCATTERED POPS AS TIMING IS STILL A BIT
QUESTIONABLE. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MUCH COOLER... WITH COOLER AIRMASS
BECOMING ENTRENCHED...BUT THE PROGRESSION OF TROF INTO THE AREA
IS A BIT PROBLEMATIC...SO POPS WERE KEPT LOW TO REFLECT
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SUNNY SKIES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY.
HOWEVER...GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS FROM KBIL WESTWARD WITH THE STRONGEST WIND GUSTS
AROUND THE KLVM AREA AND ALONG THE BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA FOOTHILLS
WHERE GUSTS 30-40KTS WILL BE LIKELY. HOOLEY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 081 054/079 049/078 052/079 053/079 055/086 055/079
0/N 00/B 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
LVM 079 047/077 042/078 046/079 047/078 049/084 048/077
0/N 01/U 21/U 11/B 21/B 12/T 33/W
HDN 083 048/080 047/081 049/080 050/080 051/088 051/081
0/N 00/B 11/U 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
MLS 082 053/079 049/079 052/080 052/077 054/087 055/083
0/U 00/U 22/W 11/B 11/B 11/B 23/W
4BQ 082 050/081 048/082 052/081 053/078 053/087 054/084
0/U 00/U 11/N 11/B 11/B 11/B 22/W
BHK 079 051/077 047/074 049/076 050/073 051/082 052/080
0/U 00/U 22/W 11/N 12/W 22/W 23/W
SHR 083 046/082 044/083 048/082 048/080 050/088 049/082
0/U 00/U 01/U 11/B 11/B 12/T 22/W
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
906 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS LOW STRATUS IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER. STILL EXPECT
THIS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. ALSO MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO MORNING T/TD/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS
RAPID CLEARING TO THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE
OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY AT
KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BY MID MORNING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K
FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCATTERED CI. AT KELM,
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 09Z IN FOG.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
645 AM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE
IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS RAPID CLEARING TO THE
WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT
BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING ESPECIALLY AT
KRME/KITH/KBGM/KAVP. BY MID MORNING LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION
AND SUBSIDENCE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER CU AROUND 4K
FT. OVERNIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR WITH SCATTERED CI. AT KELM,
IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER 09Z IN FOG.
N/NW WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...RRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1103 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE AND LL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT
THIS LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE E/SE
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEST RAINFALL RATES HAVE KEPT FLOODING
CONCERNS LOW THIS MORNING... HOWEVER... POCKETS OF HEAVIER AND
PERSISTING RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND
RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SO STAY AWARE WHILE TRAVELING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON... SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND BEGIN THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH 11 AM CDT. THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTN... A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP S/SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FEATURE CAN JUST BE MADE OUT ON WV IN SRN CO THIS AM. IN
RESPONSE... LL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG AN AXIS OF LL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DEPENDING UPON THE EFFECTS OF
DAY TIME HEATING... INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MOVING INTO FAR WRN OK IN THE EVENING...
THROUGH 03Z (10 PM CDT). STILL... WITH THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF
THE HRRR WITH WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS AS OF LATE... IT MAY BE
OVER-CONVECTING... BUT GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS... A EXPECT SOME
UPDRAFTS... AT LEAST IN THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS CIGS WILL LIFT FROM AROUND 18-21Z. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY IMPACT OKC/OUN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
VISBYS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BELOW 3SM THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART BUT SOME TEMPO NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUN/OKC.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 75 66 88 67 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 80 66 93 67 / 70 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 80 68 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 82 64 93 66 / 30 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 77 64 86 67 / 20 30 10 0
DURANT OK 78 67 91 67 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
555 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS CIGS WILL LIFT FROM AROUND 18-21Z. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY IMPACT OKC/OUN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
VISBYS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BELOW 3SM THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART BUT SOME TEMPO NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUN/OKC.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 77 66 88 67 / 80 20 10 0
HOBART OK 80 66 93 67 / 70 10 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 81 68 94 69 / 50 10 0 0
GAGE OK 81 64 93 66 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 78 64 86 67 / 20 30 10 0
DURANT OK 79 67 91 67 / 60 20 10 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/03/03
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1057 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP MAINLY NORTH OF A
JAYTON TEXAS TO ARDMORE OKLAHOMA TO DE QUEEN ARKANSAS LINE. NEW
DEVELOPMENT HAS STARTED TO OCCUR DURING THE LAST HOUR FROM
NORTHEAST OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO JACKSBORO TO SHERMAN LINE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A BRECKENRIDGE TO
DENTON TO COOPER LINE AND LEFT POPS IN THE 20S AND 30S ACROSS
MOST OF THE REST OF THE NORTHERN 2/3S OF THE FORECAST AREA. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR WINDS/SKY/TEMPERATURE GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. UPDATES HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.
58
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 655 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ARE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ELEVATED...AND ITS
GENERAL MOTION WAS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 10Z HRRR AND THE 06Z
NAM DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH PLACING THIS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...AND AS A RESULT...THE FORECASTS FROM THESE MODELS WERE
RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THE OKLAHOMA CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN A MESOSCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIVE THE
RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AROUND NOON. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SMALL COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE DFW AREA BY 20Z. ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE DFW AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS FORECAST BASED ON THE NAM
AND HRRR`S HANDLING OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES AT 20Z...WITH VCTS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT. ANY STORM THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS AN AIRPORT
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STORMS
DIRECTLY IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IFR
VSBYS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO LATER FORECASTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO GATESVILLE TO
BROWNWOOD EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO...WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR LIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE 1000+
J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES JUXTAPOSITIONED WITHIN THIS AREA. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...
STORMS NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE BETTER STEERING FLOW THAN THOSE
FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION MORE THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND PINCHES OFF AN UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
THAT MAY LINGER THERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS IT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE REGION AND WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...ALL
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AFTER WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
WACO, TX 94 71 95 71 94 / 10 10 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 87 65 88 67 90 / 40 40 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 89 70 92 70 92 / 40 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 70 91 / 30 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 20 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 70 93 / 30 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 94 72 93 71 94 / 20 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 70 93 70 93 / 10 5 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 69 93 69 93 / 30 10 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
91/58
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
655 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...TIMING OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY ARE THE FOCUS OF THE FORECAST.
EARLY MORNING REGIONAL RADARS OBSERVED A LARGE CLUSTER OF RAIN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA. THIS LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION IS ELEVATED...AND ITS
GENERAL MOTION WAS TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. THE 10Z HRRR AND THE 06Z
NAM DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB WITH PLACING THIS CONVECTION THIS
MORNING...AND AS A RESULT...THE FORECASTS FROM THESE MODELS WERE
RELIED UPON HEAVILY FOR THE 12Z TAFS.
THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THE OKLAHOMA CONVECTION WILL
RESULT IN A MESOSCALE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL DRIVE THE
RAIN COOLED AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE RED
RIVER AROUND NOON. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SMALL COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE SOUTH OVER THE DFW AREA BY 20Z. ALONG AND
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP AROUND THE DFW AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN THIS FORECAST BASED ON THE NAM
AND HRRR`S HANDLING OF CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT
WENT AHEAD WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TAF
SITES AT 20Z...WITH VCTS MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THIS WIND SHIFT. ANY STORM THAT DIRECTLY IMPACTS AN AIRPORT
THIS AFTERNOON MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS/MICROBURSTS
AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN STORMS
DIRECTLY IMPACTING AREA AIRPORTS...BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND IFR
VSBYS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO LATER FORECASTS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY BY THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.
CAVANAUGH
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ALONG A LINE FROM NACOGDOCHES TO GATESVILLE TO
BROWNWOOD EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...MOVING
OUT OF COLORADO...WILL MOVE EAST AND SPREAD LARGE SCALE FORCING
FOR LIFT OVER THE REGION TODAY. THE ATMOSPHERE NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH AN AXIS OF MUCAPE 1000+
J/KG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR AND PWATS OF 1.6 TO 1.9
INCHES JUXTAPOSITIONED WITHIN THIS AREA. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...
STORMS NORTH OF I-20 WILL HAVE BETTER STEERING FLOW THAN THOSE
FARTHER SOUTH WHICH SHOULD SPREAD THE PRECIPITATION MORE THAN
YESTERDAY. THIS INCREASED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO HELP
PRODUCE A FEW STRONG STORMS THAT HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST
WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN COUNTIES ON
MONDAY AS THE FRONT SLIDES FARTHER EAST. HOWEVER...COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LESS AND HAVE MAINTAINED ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE REGION BRIEFLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DIGS
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND PINCHES OFF AN UPPER LOW ON WEDNESDAY
THAT MAY LINGER THERE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GFS RETROGRADES THE
UPPER LOW INTO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE
ECMWF STALLS IT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THROUGH FRIDAY THEN
DRIFTS IT NORTHWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY NEXT WEEKEND.
EITHER OF THESE SCENARIOS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT OVER
THE REGION AND WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES A LITTLE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL NORMS. THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD ALSO BRING RAIN CHANCES
BACK INTO THE REGION THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...ALL
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS AFTER WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL MAKE BOTH DAYTIME AND NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS A LITTLE MORE
COMFORTABLE. 75
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
WACO, TX 94 71 95 71 94 / 10 10 5 0 0
PARIS, TX 87 65 88 67 90 / 40 30 20 0 0
DENTON, TX 89 70 92 70 92 / 30 10 5 0 0
MCKINNEY, TX 89 69 91 70 91 / 30 20 10 0 0
DALLAS, TX 90 73 93 73 92 / 30 20 5 0 0
TERRELL, TX 91 69 91 70 93 / 30 20 20 0 0
CORSICANA, TX 94 72 93 71 94 / 20 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE, TX 93 70 93 70 93 / 10 5 5 0 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 89 69 93 69 93 / 30 5 5 0 0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
1216 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.AVIATION...
AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION...WITH ISOLD TSRA...WILL AFFECT WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS THROUGH 23Z. SCATTERED AREAS OF FOG
WILL ALLOW FOR NEAR MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHWEST SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT.
55
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS STILL EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARE
DRIFTING EAST. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AS IT APPROACHES
ARKANSAS. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE SOME LIGHT RAIN...OTHERWISE CLOUDS
AOA 10-15KFT WILL BE COMMON AREAWIDE. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT
AND MOSTLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT 4-8KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE STATE YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED
WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. PREDAWN
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH...TO MID 60S
CENTRAL...TO LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. DRY AIR HAS CONTINUED TO FILTER
INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH DEW POINTS IN NORTHERN
ARKANSAS IN THE LOWER 50S.
RIGHT ON SCHEDULE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND ARE FORECAST TO SLOWLY PUSH
EASTWARD TOWARDS ARKANSAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS SHIFT TO SLOW
DOWN POPS. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT POPS ARE TOO HIGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH BOTH THE HRRR AND NMM SHOWING PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE NATURAL STATE. INCREASED CLOUDS AND
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOUT FIVE DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
KEPT POP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH THE STATE. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING...SO DO NOT BELIEVE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE TOO
SIGNIFICANT.
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEEN THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLOWLY TRIES
TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEEN ON MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR
TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE LONG TERM CONTINUES TO LOOK QUIET IN TERMS OF WEATHER. AN UPPER
RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THERE
WILL BE AN UPPER LOW OFF THE EAST COAST...AND AS THAT COMES
ONSHORE...THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT. A FRONT WILL ATTEMPT
TO MOVE TOWARD ARKANSAS...BUT NOT CONFIDENT IN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
AS IT APPROACHES AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 77 58 79 57 / 20 10 10 0
CAMDEN AR 82 64 85 62 / 40 30 20 0
HARRISON AR 72 57 79 57 / 30 10 0 0
HOT SPRINGS AR 80 62 84 61 / 40 30 20 0
LITTLE ROCK AR 81 62 83 60 / 30 20 10 0
MONTICELLO AR 84 64 85 60 / 40 30 20 0
MOUNT IDA AR 78 61 84 60 / 50 30 20 0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 75 57 79 58 / 20 10 0 0
NEWPORT AR 77 56 79 55 / 10 10 10 0
PINE BLUFF AR 82 62 84 58 / 30 30 20 0
RUSSELLVILLE AR 77 61 82 59 / 40 20 10 0
SEARCY AR 79 59 80 57 / 20 10 10 0
STUTTGART AR 81 60 82 56 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
614 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS...AND
ANOTHER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT GENERALLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WEST TO NEAR THE N NC MOUNTAINS AND SW ACROSS E TENN AND
N ALA.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR N AND NW
MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND NAM DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH INDICATES POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD
BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS IN A WEDGE-LIKE
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
GFS GENERALLY DISPLAYED A FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS DIFFERED WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO
SHOW MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS POPS. THE MOS WAS CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED. A GENERALLY DRY ATMOSPHERE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER OUR
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH BASED
CUMULUS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT...LEADING
TO POSSIBLE FOG CONCERNS AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HOWEVER...PREMISE
FOR SOME INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
248 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Broad expanse of high pressure set up in the Midwest with the
ridge axis stretched from the eastern Great Lakes back into
Missouri. A small shortwave on sat imagery to the northwest
forecast in the HRRR to pass to the north this evening. Dominant
high pressure should give Central Illinois another quiet night.
Winds will become light and variable under the ridge, with temps
dropping into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Not much to discuss in
terms of weather, but will mention the potential for very patchy
light fog/vis drops. However, leaving it out of the grids as the
afternoon dewpoints are dropping several degrees as the llvls mix
out in the day time heating.
&&
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Seeing a consistent signal in the 12z models for a dry week in the
extended forecast across central and southeast IL.
High pressure centered over the Great Lakes and extending southwest
across Illinois will gradually shift to the east over the first half
of this week. The southwest end of the surface ridge looks to remain
across central and southern Illinois during that time, keeping
seasonable and dry conditions across our forecast area.
A cold front will approach NW Illinois on Tuesday, reaching eastern
Iowa by 00z Wed/7pm Tues. The front is projected to stall out in
that general area for the rest of the week, as a ridge remains
entrenched across the eastern states due to the blocking effects
of a low pressure system off the central East Coast.
The end result will be some increase in cloud cover for our areas
west of I-55 for the last half of the week, but plenty of dry air
above and below the cloud layer will keep precip at bay.
Low pressure progressing from the SW states will move northeast
along the front later this week, reaching the Upper Mississippi
River Valley Thursday into Friday. That will bring another period
of increased cloud cover for our western counties, but no rain.
That low is expected to dissipate on Friday as it passes by to the
north of IL, with expanding high pressure across Illinois in it`s
wake. That will keep dry conditions in the forecast through next
weekend.
As for temperatures this week, the chilly air will remain across our
area into Tuesday. However, southerly flow will develop ahead of the
approaching cold front, bring warmer air to our area the rest of the
week. Highs will reach back into the lower 80s from Wednesday to
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
High pressure and VFR through the forecast. Light easterly winds
today, lighter and variable overnight under the ridge. DEC and CMI
are on the edge of a cu field but should lose them around sunset.
Skies clear overnight and not going to worry too much about vis
reductions for this issuance with the guidance trending a couple
degrees warmer. Will wait to see how much, if any, llvl moisture
mixes out this afternoon.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
604 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Drier conditions can be expected through Monday afternoon as
short range models indicate a developing upper level ridge of high
pressure building northeastward into the Western High Plains
during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability will hinder any precip chances across western Kansas
through late Monday afternoon. The warming trend for low
temperatures will continue tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
near the surface continues to draw warmer air northward into the
area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower and mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Warmer
high temperatures are likely Monday as well with warm air
advection persisting across western Kansas. The NAM and GFS show
H85 temperatures climbing up into the mid 20s(C) across central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across
portions of southwest Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
in portions of central Kansas.
Increasing low level moisture combined with light southeast winds
may lead to fog development across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late tonight where surface dewpoints are
projected to climb into the 60s(F). However, it is too early to
determine how widespread or dense any potential fog may be with
the HRRR showing virtually no signal of stratus or fog development
before midnight. A lack of any residual moisture may limit how
low visibilities get, so will insert patchy fog based on this
uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium
range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of
high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
Although a prevailing southerly flow will draw some moisture back
north into the area, a lack of significant instability combined
with a persistent weak flow aloft will limit any precip chances
through Tuesday night. However, precip chances will return
to western Kansas Wednesday as an upper level trough of low
pressure is projected to lift northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains while accompanied by a
feed of tropical moisture. Although less than robust, the flow
aloft is expected to strengthen somewhat while a developing
surface low lee of the Rockies continues to enhance a southerly
flow across western Kansas. This will occur ahead of a zone of
increasing surface convergence associated with the lee side
trough axis. Chances for precip will linger into Thursday as
the upper level shortwave is slow to lift further to the
northeast.
Little change is expected to the general air mass across western
Kansas Monday into Tuesday, so look for highs to reach the lower
to mid 90s(F) again Tuesday afternoon. Although the southerly
flow will persist through Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
precip will likely keep high temperatures down a bit Wednesday
afternoon. Same can be said for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Mainly clear skies this evening will promote radiational cooling
causing temperatures to approach dewpoints. Low level moisture will
also continue to push into central and western Kansas. Areas of
mist/fog and stratus are expected to develop at the terminals mainly
after 06z as IFR to LIFR conditions are expected by 09-10z especially
at Hays and Dodge City. At this time, these conditions look a little
less likely at Garden City. Cigs and vsbys will be improving to
VFR by 15-17z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 58 90 63 93 / 0 0 0 0
EHA 58 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 58 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
HYS 60 88 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
P28 62 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...Gerard
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
107 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Drier conditions can be expected through Monday afternoon as
short range models indicate a developing upper level ridge of high
pressure building northeastward into the Western High Plains
during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability will hinder any precip chances across western Kansas
through late Monday afternoon. The warming trend for low
temperatures will continue tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
near the surface continues to draw warmer air northward into the
area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower and mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Warmer
high temperatures are likely Monday as well with warm air
advection persisting across western Kansas. The NAM and GFS show
H85 temperatures climbing up into the mid 20s(C) across central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across
portions of southwest Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
in portions of central Kansas.
Increasing low level moisture combined with light southeast winds
may lead to fog development across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late tonight where surface dewpoints are
projected to climb into the 60s(F). However, it is too early to
determine how widespread or dense any potential fog may be with
the HRRR showing virtually no signal of stratus or fog development
before midnight. A lack of any residual moisture may limit how
low visibilities get, so will insert patchy fog based on this
uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Precip will remain generally absent through Tuesday night as medium
range models continue to indicate an upper level ridge of
high pressure building northeast across the Western High Plains.
Although a prevailing southerly flow will draw some moisture back
north into the area, a lack of significant instability combined
with a persistent weak flow aloft will limit any precip chances
through Tuesday night. However, precip chances will return
to western Kansas Wednesday as an upper level trough of low
pressure is projected to lift northeast across the Desert
Southwest into the Western High Plains while accompanied by a
feed of tropical moisture. Although less than robust, the flow
aloft is expected to strengthen somewhat while a developing
surface low lee of the Rockies continues to enhance a southerly
flow across western Kansas. This will occur ahead of a zone of
increasing surface convergence associated with the lee side
trough axis. Chances for precip will linger into Thursday as
the upper level shortwave is slow to lift further to the
northeast.
Little change is expected to the general air mass across western
Kansas Monday into Tuesday, so look for highs to reach the lower
to mid 90s(F) again Tuesday afternoon. Although the southerly
flow will persist through Wednesday, increasing cloud cover and
precip will likely keep high temperatures down a bit Wednesday
afternoon. Same can be said for Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail through
Monday morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 60 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0
GCK 58 90 63 93 / 0 0 0 10
EHA 58 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 10
LBL 58 93 64 93 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 60 88 64 93 / 0 0 0 0
P28 62 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...JJohnson
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO SHORT TERM...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Drier conditions can be expected through Monday afternoon as
short range models indicate a developing upper level ridge of high
pressure building northeastward into the Western High Plains
during the period. A weak flow aloft and a lack of significant
instability will hinder any precip chances across western Kansas
through late Monday afternoon. The warming trend for low
temperatures will continue tonight as a prevailing southerly flow
near the surface continues to draw warmer air northward into the
area. Look for lows down into the upper 50s(F) in west central
Kansas to the lower and mid 60s(F) in south central Kansas. Warmer
high temperatures are likely Monday as well with warm air
advection persisting across western Kansas. The NAM and GFS show
H85 temperatures climbing up into the mid 20s(C) across central
Kansas to the upper 20s(C) near the Colorado border. Under mostly
sunny skies, highs will reach the lower to mid 90s(F) across
portions of southwest Kansas with the upper 80s(F) still possible
in portions of central Kansas.
Increasing low level moisture combined with light southeast winds
may lead to fog development across central and eastern portions of
southwest Kansas late tonight where surface dewpoints are
projected to climb into the 60s(F). However, it is too early to
determine how widespread or dense any potential fog may be with
the HRRR showing virtually no signal of stratus or fog development
before midnight. A lack of any residual moisture may limit how
low visibilities get, so will insert patchy fog based on this
uncertainty.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail through
Monday morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 60 90 64 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 82 58 90 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 85 58 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 83 60 88 64 / 10 0 0 0
P28 79 62 90 65 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJohnson
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 905 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper
level shortwave trough moving eastward across the Northern
Plains. Meanwhile, upper level ridging is slowly developing
across the Desert Southwest. Near the surface, a lee side trough
of low pressure is slowly developing across extreme eastern
Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
Water vapor and RAP analysis revealed a fairly perturbed subtropical
pattern extending from the Trans-Pecos region of Texas up through
the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. MRMS analysis as of 06z was
showing an increasing trend of convection from Amarillo to far west
central OK. There was also some light shower activity across far
southwest KS. We will maintain some 20 POPs across the far southwest
counties eastward along the OK border through early afternoon, but
just about all of the convective activity today will be confined to
Oklahoma. Since much of the southwest Kansas will escape the
precipitation event, including extensive cloud cover, we should see
afternoon temperatures top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. A warm
plume is forecast to extend northeastward from the TX Panhandle into
far southwest KS in the wake of the early day precipitation event,
where temperatures from Elkhart to Liberal may touch the 85 to 87F
territory. The continued south-southeast low level flow will advect
abundant moisture back into southwest KS late today and especially
tonight. The NAM12, WRF-ARW, and WRF-NMMB models all show surface
dewpoints in the 62 to 65F range by early this evening. The
advection of such rich moisture, combined with decreasing wind
speeds after 06z, will likely lead to widespread fog formation by
the 06-09z time frame. We will insert some Areas Fog in the grids
with widespread less than one mile visibility. Widespread dense fog
may be possible, but it is too difficult right now to pinpoint where
the best chance for widespread dense will be right now.
.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 233 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
The main theme going into next week will be the return to above
average temperatures with the primary polar jet shifting back to its
summertime latitude along the Canadian border. In fact, by the end
of the week, all the global models suggest very anomalously high
heights from the northern Rockies into the Canadian Prairies of
Saskatchewan with ridge-building ahead of a deep Pacific trough off
the coast of British Columbia. Western Kansas weather will primarily
be driven by the subtropical flow pattern, which will not be all
that strong. The primary disturbance within this subtropical flow
pattern will move northeast into the Colorado Rockies and adjacent
High Plains on Wednesday/Wednesday Night, which is the time frame of
the highest POPs in the forecast during this entire Long Term
forecast period. Enhanced low level convergence along the lee trough
should support some loosely organized storms Wednesday
afternoon/evening, but the severe weather prospects look fairly low
given the marginal deep layer wind shear expected. The three global
models are showing differing solutions regarding the evolution of
this subtropical entity as it comes out into the Great Plains
Thursday. A slower, more closed-off solution like the ECMWF suggests
would favor precipitation chances continuing into Thursday, and as
such we will maintain some Chance POPs mainly across Central and
South Central KS counties.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites through early Monday
morning. Light south to southeasterly winds will prevail through
Monday morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 80 60 90 64 / 10 0 0 0
GCK 82 58 90 63 / 10 0 0 0
EHA 85 58 93 64 / 10 0 0 0
LBL 86 58 93 64 / 20 0 0 0
HYS 83 60 88 64 / 10 0 0 0
P28 79 62 90 65 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Umscheid
LONG TERM...Umscheid
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1112 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY SWRD THROUGH THE REGION AND DO
ANTICIPATE SOME ISOLD TO SCT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRANSITIONS EWRD ACROSS OK INTO THE ARK-LA-TEX.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO WARM NICELY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE
LESS CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT WHILE SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS ARE
OBSERVED FARTHER NORTH WHERE THE FRONT HAS CLEARED FOR SOME TIME
NOW...ALLOWING THE COOLER AND DRIER AIR TO FILTER IN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR. THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THESE FEATURES SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME. /19/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
AVIATION...
ALL IS QUIET AT THIS TIME BUT THAT SHOULD CHANGE LATER TODAY AND
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVED OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE LOWER MISS VALLEY. IR IMAGERY EARLY
THIS MORNING SHOWING 8-10KFT CEILINGS ACROSS AR INTO N LA WITH
THIS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. COLD FRONT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF N LA INTO NE TX. WITH THE AID OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG
AND/OR NORTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE 18Z-21Z TIMEFRAME. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE STARTED MOST TERMINAL WITH PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS WITH VCTS (18Z-21Z) AND CONTINUING THAT TREND INTO THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BE FROM THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS WITH
SPEEDS NEAR 4-8KTS.
13
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY VERY NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR AS LGT N-NE
WINDS MARK THE LEADING EDGE OF BOUNDARY...AND DEWPOINTS FALL
AROUND 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE INTERSTATE...AND THE NORTHERN EDGES
OF THE CWA. TRICKY TEMP GRADIENT INFLUENCED NOT ONLY BY THE EAST
TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY...BUT ALSO WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. WILL SEE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN SECTIONS WHICH MAY SEE
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTION. FURTHER NORTH...HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO
EVEN REACH 80 AT SOME LOCATIONS WHERE THICK CLOUD COVER PERSISTS
IN COOLER AIR. DEEP POST FRONTAL MOISTURE INDICATED...ESPECIALLY
ON NAM SOUNDINGS...WHICH CORRESPOND WELL TO RUC ANALYSIS. WILL
CARRY HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...BUT WITH
DIMINISHING TSTM CHANCES IN LOW INSTABILITY. RAIN CHANCES TO
FINALLY DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH BY EARLY MONDAY WITH COOLER UPPER
RIDGE BACKDOORING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL
BE DRY WITH LOWER HUMIDITIES...DESPITE AFTN HIGHS REBOUNDING BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S BEGINNING TUESDAY. CONVECTION BY NEXT
WEEKEND QUESTIONABLE AS NO ADDITIONAL FRONTAL BOUNDARIES NEAR
AREA. HOWEVER..LARGE SFC HIGH OVER NEW ENGLAND STATES MAY BEGIN TO
ASSIST IN MOISTURE RETURN IN LOW LVL E-SE FLOW FOR OUR AREA.
/VII/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 91 67 89 68 / 20 40 20 10
MLU 90 63 89 63 / 20 50 30 10
DEQ 83 62 86 63 / 40 50 10 10
TXK 84 63 87 66 / 30 40 10 10
ELD 85 62 86 62 / 30 50 30 10
TYR 92 68 91 71 / 20 30 20 10
GGG 92 67 90 69 / 20 40 20 10
LFK 94 69 92 68 / 10 30 30 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1241 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
WILL HAVE TO INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WATER VAPOR STLT IMAGERY LOOP EARLY THIS MORNING IN COMBINATION
WITH RECENT RUC MODEL INITIALIZATIONS SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER NRN IL AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXTENDED FROM THE WRN DKTS INTO THE NE PNHDL. OUR AREA WAS IN S/SE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS. ALOFT...SOME MOISTURE
WAS RETURNING WITH A 20-40 KT LOW LEVEL JET. PW VALUES WERE
APPROACHING ONE INCH IN NERN NE. HAD THOUGHT ABOUT INCLUDING A
LOW POP FOR ISOLD TSTMS THIS MORNING FOR PARTS OF THE AREA...
MAINLY NW OF LINCOLN AND OMAHA. SOME PAST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR MODEL
RUNS HAD BEEN HINTING AT THAT...AND SHOWED 200-400 J/KG OF
ELEVATED CAPE (BASES AROUND 700 MB). HOWEVER MOST RECENT RUNS
ARE DRY AND RECENT IR STLT PIX SHOW CLOUDS DECREASING.
WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR SHOULD BE MOVING IN WITH THE SLY FLOW THIS
AFTN. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING ABOUT
5-8 DEGREES C COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AND MIXING TO ABOUT 2500-3000
FEET AGL. THIS SHOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE 70S...WITH THE WARMEST
READINGS IN OUR WRN COUNTIES. RECENT RAP MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN
SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM SCNTRL NE INTO WRN
IA...BUT FOR NOW HAVE DISCOUNTED THAT SINCE IT APPEARS BETTER
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SRN MN AND NRN IA BY THAT TIME.
TONIGHT...WE MAY SEE SOME ISOLD TSRA IN OUR FAR SRN COUNTIES
LATE...BUT CHANCES SEEM HIGHER FARTHER S ON THE NOSE OF A 20-30 KT
LOW LEVEL JET AND LIFT AGAIN AROUND 305K. DID NOT INCLUDE POPS AT
THIS TIME...BUT NEXT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A LOOK AT THIS.
A CDFNT WILL SAG DOWN TOWARD THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE...
AND WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING SOME LOW POPS IN THOSE PERIODS. CURRENT
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO SHOW CHANCES QUITE AS GOOD AS PREVIOUS RUNS
BUT KEPT THINGS ABOUT AS THEY WERE FOR CONTINUITY. ALSO...THE 00Z
GFS DID SHOW SOME POTENTIAL. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WARM AS THE SLY FLOW PERSISTS. LOOK FOR HIGHS MONDAY IN THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...THEN HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD. OUR BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND TSTMS WILL BE FROM WED INTO THU AS THIS MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
HAVE A MAINLY DRY FORECAST GOING FOR FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. MODELS
SHOW THAT A MID TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST
WITH A RIDGE FROM MEXICO TOWARD THE CNTRL PLAINS AND THEN UP INTO
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS WILL START IN THE 80S WED...COOL A
BIT FOR THU/FRI THEN MODERATE BACK TOWARD UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S BY
SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
UPPER WAVE THAT PRODUCED SPOTTY HIGH BASED CONVECTION ACROSS
NORTH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING HAD NOW MOVED EAST
OF FORECAST AREA AND ALL THREE TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL THREE TAF SIGHT THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEW POINT AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW SO SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AFTER
12Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MEYER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
158 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING
OF THE NEW WEEK, KEEPING SKIES CLEAR AND THE WEATHER DRY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...MAIN CHANGE WAS TO BEEF UP CLOUD COVER FOR THIS
MORNING AS LOW STRATUS IS PERSISTING A LITTLE LONGER. STILL EXPECT
THIS TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. ALSO MADE SOME VERY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO MORNING T/TD/WIND GRIDS BASED ON LATEST OBS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT WILL EXIT PRIOR TO SUNRISE. DRY
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN QUICKLY, AND SATELLITE SHOWS
RAPID CLEARING TO THE WEST. BASED ON LATEST RAP PROFILES, HAVE
OPTED TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE MUCH COOLER AIR MASS, WE FEEL THE GUIDANCE IS TOO COOL.
GIVEN STILL DECENT SUN ANGLE AND RECENT TOO-COOL BIAS FROM THE
GUIDANCE PRODUCTS, WE DECIDED TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS ABOUT 2F
ABOVE MODEL OUTPUT.
VERY CHILLY OVERNIGHT WITH MINS DIPPING TO BETWEEN 39F AND 44F
ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONTINUED DRY AND QUIET WEATHER AS HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE.
POTENTIAL FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1 PM UPDATE...
OUR LONG SPELL OF DRY, RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT RIDGING, BOTH
SURFACE AND ALOFT, WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYERS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL ACT TO DEFLECT MOST OF THE
ENERGY/MOISTURE WITH AN OHIO VALLEY TROUGH INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC/SOUTHEASTERN STATES, WHILE ALSO KEEPING MUCH OF THE JET
ENERGY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM UP OVER CANADA.
EACH DAY SHOULD BE CHARACTERIZED BY A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S-MID 70S, WHILE NIGHTS ARE GENERALLY CLEAR
AND SEASONABLY COOL (40S-LOWER 50S).
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ONLY
CONCERN FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE FOG TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS CURRENTLY BUILDING OVER THE REGION AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS ABOVE THE SFC WILL BE
GUSTY AND NORTHERLY... PRODUCING DOWNSLOPE WINDS... THUS THIS MAY
PRODUCE ENOUGH DOWNSLOPE OVER THE REGION TO PREVENT VALLEY FOG.
WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON...
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY EVENING-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG, MAINLY KELM.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/PCF
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...KAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
102 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.DISCUSSION...
&&
.AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSTIST MOST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH RAIN AND
SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN NORTH
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH SOUTH WIND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED PRECIP/WX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST ALONG A MID
LEVEL BAROCLINC ZONE AND LL MOISTURE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... BACK INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. EXPECT
THIS LINE OF STORMS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESSIVELY MOVE E/SE
THROUGH THE AFTN AS THE SFC RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MODEST RAINFALL RATES HAVE KEPT FLOODING
CONCERNS LOW THIS MORNING... HOWEVER... POCKETS OF HEAVIER AND
PERSISTING RAINFALL WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADS AND
RISES ON SOME CREEKS AND STREAMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA... SO STAY AWARE WHILE TRAVELING TODAY.
THIS AFTERNOON... SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AND BEGIN THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK. TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
THROUGH 11 AM CDT. THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTN... A WEAK H500
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP S/SE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. THIS
FEATURE CAN JUST BE MADE OUT ON WV IN SRN CO THIS AM. IN
RESPONSE... LL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE ALONG AN AXIS OF LL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. DEPENDING UPON THE EFFECTS OF
DAY TIME HEATING... INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE. RECENT RUNS OF THE
HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE IN THE AFTN
ACROSS THE PANHANDLES MOVING INTO FAR WRN OK IN THE EVENING...
THROUGH 03Z (10 PM CDT). STILL... WITH THE RECENT TRACK RECORD OF
THE HRRR WITH WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENTS AS OF LATE... IT MAY BE
OVER-CONVECTING... BUT GIVEN THE INGREDIENTS... A EXPECT SOME
UPDRAFTS... AT LEAST IN THE PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL OK. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW LONG MVFR CIGS WILL
LAST BUT FOR NOW IT APPEARS CIGS WILL LIFT FROM AROUND 18-21Z. THE
HEAVIEST RAIN MAY IMPACT OKC/OUN WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS SO
VISBYS HAVE BEEN DECREASED BELOW 3SM THERE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHERLY FOR THE MOST PART BUT SOME TEMPO NORTH WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT OUN/OKC.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015/
DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING.
AN AREA HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS WEST CENTRAL OK AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. THE
CANADIAN...AND MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS...HAVE LATCHED ONTO THIS WAA
SCENARIO ALTHOUGH A FEW OF THEM MAY BE INITIALLY TOO FAR SOUTH AND
A BIT TOO SLOW. THE CANADIAN/S MOISTURE PROFILE AND LIFT MATCH
VERY WELL WITH ONGOING MOIST CONVECTION. THIS WIDESPREAD PRECIP
WILL KEEP TEMPS WILL BELOW AVG THIS AFTERNOON PARTICULARLY ACROSS
CENTRAL AND E/SE OK. LOW TO MID 70S AND LOW 80S ARE ANTICIPATED.
THIS IS CLOSER TO THE NAM12 AND HRRR SOLUTIONS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NW OK WHERE SOME HEATING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. IF STRONG
STORMS DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP...COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED. MOST
OF THE RAIN SHOULD START TO TAPER OFF A COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER
LUNCH TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATE RAIN MAY LINGER NEAR THE RED
RIVER AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND EASTERN OK AS A SECOND WAVE DIVES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE MISS
RIVER VALLEY...SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW OVER OK AND WESTERN NORTH
TX. SKIES WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AND TEMPS WILL CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR
OR ABOVE AVG MON AFTERNOON. IF MORE RAINFALL ACCOMPANIES THIS
WAVE...EXPECT A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT TO MAXTS ALONG AND EAST OF
I35. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE RESULTING IN A WARM AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL
`COOL` SLIGHTLY ON WED AFTERNOON AS SOME HEIGHT FALLS ACCOMPANY
AN INITIAL MID TO UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF NM. THERE
ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE REMNANTS
OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST WSW OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SOMETIME THUR AM. WILL CONTINUE WITH SCHC TO LOW CHC POPS MAINLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40 THROUGH FRI AM AS THIS FEATURE IMPACTS OUR
AREA...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 66 88 67 90 / 20 10 0 0
HOBART OK 66 93 67 93 / 10 0 0 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 68 94 69 95 / 10 0 0 0
GAGE OK 64 93 66 93 / 20 0 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 86 67 89 / 30 10 0 0
DURANT OK 67 91 67 93 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
04/09/09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
708 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD
AND THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BE
JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF
STATES EAST OF THE ROCKIES. A WEAK SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
OFFSHORE. AN UPPER IMPULSE CURRENTLY MOVING EAST ACROSS TEXAS...AND
ANOTHER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE UPPER MISS VALLEY. CURRENT SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A FRONT GENERALLY STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA WEST TO NEAR THE N NC MOUNTAINS AND SW ACROSS E TENN AND
N ALA.
LATEST COMPOSITE RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO OUR N AND NW
MAINLY ACROSS THE NC MOUNTAINS. LATEST SPC HRRR SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS LATER TONIGHT SO WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THOSE LOCATIONS. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD SHOULD BE IN THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AND JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA
TUESDAY. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING AND ASSOCIATED
INSTABILITY SUPPORTING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE GFS AND NAM DISPLAY THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND NAM MOS PLUS SREF GUIDANCE
SUGGEST THE HIGHEST SHOWER CHANCE LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. INSTABILITY AIDED BY THE UPPER TROUGH INDICATES POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT THE GREATEST CHANCE SHOULD
BE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND IN THE SOUTH PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF THE LINGERING EFFECTS OF HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE HIGHER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
IN THE SOUTH PART JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY...AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY BECAUSE OF CLOUDINESS IN A WEDGE-LIKE
PATTERN. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DURING THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE ECMWF AND
GFS GENERALLY DISPLAYED A FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH A
LONG-FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. THE MODELS DIFFERED WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WRAPPING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE ECMWF TENDING TO
SHOW MORE MOISTURE COMPARED TO THE GFS. THE GFS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATED A HIGH SPREAD. WE CONTINUED THE FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS
WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD
MOS POPS. THE MOS WAS CONSISTENT WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THREAT OF MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB TOWARD
DAYBREAK.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT...LEADING TO POSSIBLE
FOG CONCERNS AT FOG PRONE AGS AND OGB. HOWEVER...PREMISE FOR SOME
INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM THE WEST REDUCES
CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT THE REGION
MONDAY...AND PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS...WITH A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
MVFR CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...WITH MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1141 AM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.UPDATE...DRY COOL AIR MASS IS SETTLING ACROSS MIDDLE TN TODAY,
WITH STRATOCU CIGS HOLDING TOUGH OVER EASTERN AND SOME NORTH-
CENTRAL AREAS. WITH AN EXPECTATION FOR ONLY BKN CLDS OVER THE
EXTREME EAST TODAY, HAVE TRIMMED BACK MAX TEMPS FOR THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU JUST A BIT. ONLY LOOKING FOR ANOTHER 6 DEG RISE
IN TEMPS AT CSV TODAY, WITH A MAX AROUND 74. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGS OVER THE SW, WHERE WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE HAS
ALLOWED READINGS TO RUN A LITTLE AHEAD OF PREVIOUS EXPECTATIONS.
ALTHOUGH NO SPRINKLES OR SHOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SO FAR THIS MORNING, HRRR AND NAM12 CONTINUE
TO SHOW AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. SO, WILL LEAVE OUR SLIGHT CHC POPS ALONE FOR THOSE
AREAS.
WILL RELEASE A NEW SUITE OF UPDATED PRODUCTS SHORTLY TO REFLECT
THESE NEW GRID UPDATES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 80 58 81 56 / 10 10 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 78 53 79 52 / 10 10 10 0
CROSSVILLE 74 56 76 52 / 20 10 10 10
COLUMBIA 80 57 81 54 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 82 58 81 56 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 78 54 79 53 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SHORT TERM...
THE CENTER OF THE UA RIDGE REMAINS SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN...AND IS AIDING STREAMING A FETCH
OF ERN PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM THE BAJA OF CALI TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EMERGENCE OF A SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF UA
RIDGING ACROSS THE SWRN CONUS IS HELPING TO VEER FLOW ALOFT FROM
NEAR ZONAL TO THE NW AND AS SUCH...IS SLOWLY SHIFTING THE PLUME OF
PACIFIC MOISTURE SWRD WITH TIME. LOOKING AT THE SFC...THANKS TO LAST
NIGHTS ADEQUATE LLJ COUPLED WITH WAA...THE ONCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE SINCE BECOME LINGERING
SHOWERS MORE SO ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS LATE THIS AFTN. THE UA
RIDGE TO OUR WEST GRADUALLY EXPANDING WRD TOWARDS THE REGION IS
HELPING TO FILTER IN DRIER AIR FROM THE TOP DOWN...INITIALLY NOTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WRN...NWRN AND NRN ZONES GIVEN CLEARING SKIES
THERE...AND WILL EVENTUALLY FILTER IN TO ACROSS THE SERN ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. SFC TROUGHING/A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
THE ERN TX PANHANDLE TO ACROSS THE NRN ROLLING PLAINS...COMBINED
WITH A BIT OF INSOLATION....DETERIORATING CIN AND SB CAPE VALUES OF
1200+ J/KG ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS...RAISES CONCERN FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD OF STORMS /POSSIBLY STRONG/ FIRING UP ALONG THE SFC
TROUGH LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. IN FACT...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWED CI OCCURRING ACROSS THE SE TX PANHANDLE NW OF WHEELER TX AS
WELL AS SW OF MEMPHIS TX ALONG THAT SFC BOUNDARY. THE TTU WRF
MAINTAINS THE CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CWA WHICH APPEARS TO NOT
HANDLE THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE HRRR ON THE OTHER-HAND MAY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE PRECIP SITUATION...AS IT DEVELOPS SCATTERED
STORMS ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN TX PANHANDLE WHICH THEN PUSHES SOUTH
TO ACROSS THE NERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...DESPITE THE
MEAN FLOW BEING THE FROM THE W-SW. PERHAPS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/A
COLD POOL COULD AID IN THIS SWRD TRAJECTORY. HAVE THEREFORE ELECTED
TO INSERT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NERN ZONES THIS EVENING
THROUGH 21/06Z.
TONIGHT...THE PLUME OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE FA...AS THE UA RIDGE CONTINUES TO EXPAND WRD TOWARDS THE REGION.
NWRLY FLOW WILL THEREFORE BRIEFLY BECOME ESTABLISHED...HOWEVER RAIN
CHANCES LOOK FAIRLY LOW GIVEN THE FILTRATION OF DRIER AIR. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM SOLUTION IN PARTICULARLY HONES IN
THE POTENTIAL OF FOG ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK...AS SFC WINDS GO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND CLEARING SKIES OCCUR. FURTHERMORE...IT IS
LIKELY HANGING ITS HAT ON LAST NIGHT/S AND TODAY/S PRECIP ACTIVITY
BEING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE GROUND RATHER SATURATED. THOUGH LOOKING
BACK...THE BEST PRECIP /SEVERAL TENTHS OF AN INCH/ FELL ACROSS THE
TX PANHANDLE AND PERMIAN BASIN VERSUS SPOTTY AMOUNTS OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH UP TO PERHAPS A TENTH OF AN INCH ACROSS THE
CWA. NOT SURE IF THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO INITIATE RATHER DENSE FOG AS
SHOWN VIA THE NAM /BELOW 1/4 MILE/ BUT PERHAPS LIGHT FOG/HAZE AND/OR
FEW LOW CLOUDS ARE NOT TOTALLY OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH GENERALLY
CLEAR SKIES...EXPECT A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S ACROSS THE SW TX PANHANDLE TO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE FAR
ROLLING PLAINS EXPECTED. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY...THANKS TO THE UA
RIDGE EXPANDING ACROSS THE REGION AND THUS...AN UPTICK IN 500 MB
HEIGHT FIELDS AND 850 MB TEMPS OCCUR. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS OUR AREA
EARLY IN THE WEEK. A DISTURBANCE ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO
WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WITH MOISTURE
IMPROVEMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. THE BULK OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST. WE WILL
HOLD ON TO SMALL THUNDER MENTION ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AREAS
TUESDAY. QUICKLY FOLLOWING WILL BE THE OLD CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF
BAJA THAT MODELS HAVE BEEN SPEEDING UP AND MAINTAINING MORE
INTENSITY THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS. HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD FALL OVER OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEPER MOISTURE DRAGGING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ZONES INITIALLY AS UPPER RIDGE RETREATS SOUTH AND WEST
EVENTUALLY TO REFORM FURTHER WEST OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO. MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY THOUGH WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT LIFT...STILL VALID FOR A LOW
MENTION OF THUNDER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE REFORMS TO THE WEST ON FRIDAY...THIS MAY OPEN
A WINDOW FOR THE REMNANTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LOW TO DIP
BACK SOUTHWARD. OUR SOLUTIONS ARE NOT AT ALL CONSISTENT ON THIS
AND WE WILL RETAIN DRY FORECAST HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GIVES SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THAT FAR EXTENDED TIME FRAME. AFTER
AN INITIAL COUPLE OR THREE FAIRLY WARM DAYS THIS WEEK...THE
COMBINATION OF IMPROVED MOISTURE AND LOWER HEIGHTS WITH LESS
UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL ALTHOUGH
MORE MODERATE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
RMCQUEEN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 59 88 61 83 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 60 88 61 86 / 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 60 88 60 87 / 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 60 87 61 86 / 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 60 89 63 88 / 10 0 0 10
DENVER CITY 60 87 61 85 / 0 0 10 10
BROWNFIELD 61 87 62 86 / 10 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 65 92 67 94 / 20 0 0 0
SPUR 63 90 65 91 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 65 94 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
29/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
636 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 625 PM EDT SUNDAY...
EARLY EVENING UPDATE WILL REFLECT A GREATER CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS THAN ISOLATED WITHIN AN AREA AROUND MARTINSVILLE
VIRGINIA...WEST TO NEAR THE CREST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. ALSO...A
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WAS SOUTH OF THIS REGION ACROSS CENTRAL STOKES
COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA. THIS COLLECTION OF SHOWERS MATCHES WELL
WITH A NOSE OF MORE UNSTABLE AIR WITH SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE
AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY OF 500-1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM AND
SURFACE BASED LIFTED INDICES OF -1 TO -2 C. THIS AREA...AND
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS ROCKINGHAM COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA
AND PITTSYLVANIA COUNTY VIRGINIA ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN EARLIER PROJECTED PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. TWEAKS OF HOURLY
TEMPERATURE...DEW POINT...WIND AND SKY COVER WERE MADE THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING HOURS BASED UPON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND EXPECTED
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES VCNTY OF KBLF/KBKW...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND FROM
THE APPALACHIAN CREST EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUD BASES REMAINING AOA 4KFT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAPE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO THE TAF SITES MONDAY WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR FOR MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM DUE TO OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/PM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
330 PM EDT SUN SEP 20 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH ALONG THE EAST
SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS CHANGE
IN AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO RESULT
IN ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR AREAS OF RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT TO OUR SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST IN THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION HAS FORM IN THE UNSTABLE AIR THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BLUE RIDGE. SPC 18Z MESOSCALE ANAL INDICATED SBCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO
NORTH CAROLINA. KFCX RADAR IMAGES INDICATED SHOWERS FORMING WITH
DEEP LAYER MOIST FLUX CONVERGENCE. TRIMMED BACK THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...BUT ALLOWED FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS
AS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE SPC DAY ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.
INITIALLY...SHAPED POPS TOWARDS A BLEND OF HRRR AND RNK WRFARW
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR CONVECTION...THEN INCREASE
CHANCES WITH RAIN TONIGHT.
AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH BUILDS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT ALONG THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS...A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WIND WILL
DEVELOP PROMOTING UPSLOPE CLOUDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL UVM COMPONENT WILL BE THE GREATEST. IN
SPITE OF THE PRECIPITATION...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...LESS
THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL VARY FROM
AROUND 50 DEGREES IN THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT.
ON MONDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD
FROM NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM NEW ENGLAND...WILL PUSH
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN FACE OF THE APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. UPSLOPE FLOW
COMBINED WITH RICH CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN COOL CONDITIONS MONDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES VARYING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT. SOME WARMER TEMPERATURES MAY SLIDE INTO
THE FAR WEST ALLOWING READINGS TO CLIMB TO AROUND 70 DEPENDING ON
THE STRENGTH OF THE COOL WEDGE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
STRONG WEDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY NIGHT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING ENOUGH DEEP MOISTURE PER CONTINUED UPSLOPE EARLY...AND SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH UNDER THE OHIO VALLEY UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP
PERIODS OF RAIN/DRIZZLE GOING OVERNIGHT. MOISTURE DEPTH MAY DECREASE
SOME LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHERLY SO GOING
WITH HIGHEST CHANCE/LOW LIKELY POPS DURING THE EVENING OTHERWISE
CONTINUED DAMP AND COOL OVERNIGHT.
COLUMN SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRY TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COMBINATION
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH
ENHANCES A DRIER NORTH TO NE TRAJECTORY. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER COLD
POOL CLOSING OFF ACROSS THE WEST...MAY SEE ADDED SHRA BANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH ANY INSOLATION AS GUIDANCE SHOWING A SMALL RIBBON
OF INSTABILITY FAR WEST. OTHERWISE WILL INIT WITH MORE STRATIFORM
LIGHT RAIN EARLY TUESDAY...GIVING WAY TO MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WHERE SUPPORTED BY
SOME NORTH/NE FLOW CONVERGENCE INTO EARLY TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE
DRYING OUT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE EXPECT HIGH
TEMPS TO REBOUND A LITTLE PENDING HOW FAST THE WEDGE ERODES. THUS
STAYED BELOW MOS FOR HIGHS WITH MAINLY 65-70 NEAR THE BLUE RIDGE
AND LOW 70S PIEDMONT AND FAR WEST.
UPPER LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY ALLOWING INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
AND ADDED DRYING AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS
ALONG WITH A DRY NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN A SUNNY AND MILDER DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH HEATING OF DRY AIR PUSHING HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID/UPPER
70S OVERALL.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SUNDAY...
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A MOSTLY DRY PERIOD INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE
RESIDUAL UPPER LOW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS DURING MIDWEEK DROPS FARTHER
SOUTH BEFORE RETROGRADING NW INTO THE TN VALLEY BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGING TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE HEIGHTS LOWER
A BIT WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM SLIDING NORTHWARD. PASSING MID LEVEL
TROFFINESS WELL TO THE NE WILL ALSO ALLOW A LARGE AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO SPILL SOUTH LEADING TO ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL WEDGING BY THE
WEEKEND.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT WET TREND
OFF THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS AND A FEW OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS IN
KEEPING THE CLOSED LOW SPINNING OVER THE CAROLINAS. THIS SCENARIO
EVENTUALLY TAPS INTO MOISTURE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND MAKES FOR
QUITE AN ONSHORE TAP OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SINCE THIS
REMAINS AN OVERALL OUTLIER AT THIS POINT...WILL STAY CONSISTENT AND
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE EARLIER 00Z CMC/12Z EC...AND GO MAINLY DRY EXCEPT
FOR ISOLATED OROGRAPHIC AIDED SHOWERS SW FRIDAY...AND OVER
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL SECTIONS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURNS. OTHERWISE DRY WEDGE APPEARS TOO STRONG EVEN FOR LOW
CLOUDS SO RUNNING PC/MOSTLY SUNNY WITH MORE CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND.
TEMPS REMAIN MILD BUT OVERALL STILL CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...MOSTLY
70S FOR HIGHS BUT COOL 50S AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 143 PM EDT SUNDAY...
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...IFR CIGS WILL REMAIN CONFINED
TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES VCNTY OF KBLF/KBKW...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST
ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. MAINLY MVFR CIGS WILL BE FOUND FROM
THE APPALACHIAN CREST EAST TO THE BLUE RIDGE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...CLOUD BASES REMAINING AOA 4KFT.
THERE APPEARS TO BE INSTABILITY/CAPE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
FOR SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS.
FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL
WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ASSOCIATED EASTERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN OR
DRIZZLE TO THE TAF SITES MONDAY WITH HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...AND POTENTIAL IFR CONDITIONS VCNTY OF THE BLUE RIDGE
WHERE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
THE WEDGE WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY MIDWEEK ALLOWING CONDITIONS
TO RETURN TO VFR FOR MID/LATE WEEK. SOME FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
THAT LOW PRESSURE MAY RETROGRADE WESTWARD FROM THE EAST COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK BRINGING CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ATTM DUE TO OTHER MODELS KEEPING THE SYSTEM
FARTHER EAST AND OFF THE COAST.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/PM
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/PM