Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/16/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
326 PM MST MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL
KEEP STORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY...TRENDING DOWN
WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAPE TURNED OUT TO BE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AS STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. AS OF THIS
WRITING...EARLY STAGE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DRY ADVECTION
MAY BE UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHERN YUMA AND SOUTHEAST IMPERIAL COUNTY.
DURING THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
TREND CONTINUING NORTH AND EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP STORM
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
ISOLATED...BUT STRONG...IN NATURE. OF NOTE...ONLY THE PAST 2-3 RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...MOST OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA RETAINS DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND NORTHERN PINAL COUNTIES. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW OF 25-30 KNOTS THESE STORMS WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
QUITE POSSIBLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF METRO PHOENIX. STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO FORM WILL BE LINGER LIVED BUT LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS THAN STORMS FROM YESTERDAY. HI- RES MODELS HAVE INDICATED
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA AS A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS
GOOD AND BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD BE MORE STABLE.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ON TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN...BRUSHING OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR CWA REMAINS ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AXIS FOR THE MOST PART.
ACCORDINGLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICAL ASSISTANCE FOR PRECIP
PRODUCTION...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY UPPER DIVERGENCE.
ALSO...THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. SO MODEL
CAPE IS FAIRLY UNDER-WHELMING BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT AS SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC IS ADVECTED IN. IN FACT SOME MODELS DEPICT QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF IT...SATURATED
LAYERS BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING LEVEL...AND NO CAPE. YET ANOTHER
WAVE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS EVEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER
REMOVED FROM OUR AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. SO POPS TREND DOWN FURTHER WITH ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. POPS GO AWAY ALTOGETHER
THURSDAY AS DRY ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...TEMPS WILL BE NICELY BELOW
NORMAL BUT FAR FROM CHILLY.
FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND... FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
SOME WESTERLY INFLUENCE AS TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DIGS DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD AND PLEASANT
MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO AN WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BACK ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND A
REINTRODUCTION OF DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW AND RELATED MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT...AND
PRECIP CHANCES COULD RETURN TO AT LEAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND COVERAGE
TODAY...HOWEVER PRIMARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND
MUCH BRIEFER IMPACTS VERSUS SUNDAY. HAVE CARRIED VCTS MENTION AROUND
THE 00Z TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE SO ISOLATED THAT
IMPACTS ARE VERY FEW. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SWLY DIRECTION...WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO HINT AT LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 5K FT
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCT MENTION IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KBLH WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT...THEN WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD THAT MUCH STRONGER WESTERLY GUSTS 30-35 KT ARE LIKELY AT
KIPL THIS EVENING...GENERALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. THIS MAY
ALSO LOFT BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARRIVING
NEXT MONDAY. DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH AFTERNOON READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO A 15 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE VERY MANAGEABLE WITH ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS TRENDING FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND LIGHT DRAINAGE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ032.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
627 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN ADDITION...COOL TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A GUSTY BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN VERMONT. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS
BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
EASTERN/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS
WRAPPED ALL THE WAY BACK WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH
ANOTHER PIECE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SWINGING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER OUR
AREA...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MORE MODERATE BURSTS AT TIMES...ESP OVER
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE NAM12 AND 3KM HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
THEY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE GONE WITH CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. POPS TAPER
OFF FURTHER SOUTH...AS ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST
FORCING.
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD FURTHER INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND THE IMPULSE
PRODUCING THE LIFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO START TO CLEAR OUT...AND END THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE
WILL BE A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND AS WELL...THANKS TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER EACH
DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH CLEARING
SKIES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES AS WE WILL AVERAGE 5-
10 DEGREE ABOVE THOSE VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES...THIS WILL ADVECT IN H850 TEMPS BACK WELL INTO
THE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS TOO WILL ASSIST WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FOR A
VERY MILD AFTERNOONS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A FRONTAL TIMING SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD...THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS LAPSE RATES
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE LESS THAN IDEAL. HOWEVER...PER
COORDINATION...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE EXIT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION BUT WAS BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED AS THEY APPROACH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE BERKSHIRES YET VISIBILITIES WERE
REMAINING HIGH. SO ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO
THE CIGS THIS MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED INTO VFR BY LATE THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED AT KALB-KPSF. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WETTING RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 45 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WEST WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
AFTER A FULL RH RECOVERY TONIGHT ALONG WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWED FOR SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
RIVERS/STREAMS APPROACHED CAUTION STAGE. DESPITE LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES...NO FLOODING OCCURRED DUE TO
EXTREMELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOWS.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE UNDER A THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
353 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN ADDITION...COOL TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A GUSTY BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS BRINGING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO EASTERN/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED ALL THE WAY BACK
WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CNY...AND THESE WERE
QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED
HEAVIER BURSTS...ESP ON THE SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE THE
W-NW FLOW UPSLOPES THE MOUNTAINS.
THE NAM12 AND 3KM HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. STILL...HAVE GONE WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. POPS TAPER OFF FURTHER
SOUTH...AS ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST FORCING.
BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND THE IMPULSE PRODUCING
THE LIFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
START TO CLEAR OUT...AND END THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS.
HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE
WILL BE A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND AS WELL...THANKS TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER EACH
DAY.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH CLEARING
SKIES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES. NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES AS WE WILL AVERAGE 5-
10 DEGREE ABOVE THOSE VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY. AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES...THIS WILL ADVECT IN H850 TEMPS BACK WELL INTO
THE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS TOO WILL ASSIST WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FOR A
VERY MILD AFTERNOONS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A FRONTAL TIMING SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD...THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS LAPSE RATES
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE LESS THAN IDEAL. HOWEVER...PER
COORDINATION...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE EXIT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS A POCKET OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CIGS AND VIS UPSTREAM WERE WITHIN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WE WILL TREND THESE RESTRICTIONS INTO KGFL-KALB-KPSF.
FOR KPOU...WESTERLY WIND DOWNSLOPING MAY HOLD OFF THE SHOWER AND
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
HEART OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS TOWARD SUNRISE.
THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE. ONCE THE UPPER LOW
PASSES TO OUR EAST AND NORTH...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED
INTO VFR. THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED AT KALB-KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WETTING RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 45 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WEST WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.
AFTER A FULL RH RECOVERY TONIGHT ALONG WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWED FOR SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
RIVERS/STREAMS APPROACHED CAUTION STAGE. DESPITE LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES...NO FLOODING OCCURRED DUE TO
EXTREMELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOWS.
SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE UNDER A THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
9 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
HAD REACHED OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THE 14/09Z NCEP
SURFACE FRONT/SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TAILEND OF THE
COLD FRONT AND BEGINNING OF A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY/SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA RIDGING SOUTH TO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.
THIS AFTERNOON... STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS GOOD WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREA CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED.
THE MORNING UPDATE TO BOTH THE ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WILL LOOK AT AMENDING THE VARIOUS WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES.
.AVIATION...VFR.
.MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 3 TO 4
FEET WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLY SEASON FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AS ITS BRIDGED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS
SOUTH AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. AT THE
SURFACE...OUTSIDE OF A MEDIOCRE 2 - 3 DEWPOINT DROP OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ISOLATED
AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE...
MAINTAINED POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS.
AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN...MODIFYING THE LOCAL
AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...
FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE BRIDGED BY THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER. DEEP ERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER CENTRAL FL...PUSHING THE REMNANT FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND BACK TO THE N WHILE TAPPING A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR UNDER THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE...H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
AOB 60PCT...H85-H50 AOB 50PCT.
DEEP E/SE WIND PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR DIURNAL
PREICP WHILE THE THE DRY MID LVL AIR KEEPS TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 50PCT.
EVEN SO... AT THE SAME TIME H50 TEMPS ARND -8C WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DRY AIR...KEEPING H85-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT INDICATE HIGH LVLS OF INSTABILITY...IT WILL INCREASE TSTM
POTENTIAL AS A 40KT H30-H20 JET STREAK TRAILING FROM THE DEPARTING
FRONTAL TROF DRAGS ITS WAY ACRS N FL.
WILL GO WITH A 30/40PCT COASTAL/INTERIOR SPLIT FOR PRECIP...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M/U80S...INTERIOR TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE L90S. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M/U70S AS THE BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW PREVENTS DECOUPLING AND PUSHES WARM OCEAN AIR ACRS CENTRAL FL.
WED-SUN...
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE CONSOLIDATED
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE W ATLC...IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED
GENERATING...GENERATING AN EXTENDED PD OF E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-
H50 LYR. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ALLOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO POOL ACRS THE
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL FL UNDER AN AIRMASS
WITH PWATS PUSHING THE 2.0"-2.2" RANGE.
THE PERSISTENT E/SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR
HIGHEST DIURNAL COVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SCT NOCTURNAL SHRAS.
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY
MODIFY UNDER THE STEADY TROPICAL FLOW REGIME. WILL CARRY 40-50PCT
POPS THRU THE PD. THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR AVG...M80S NEAR THE COAST AND U80S INLAND. MIN TEMPS ABV AVG
DUE TO THE SAME MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...M/U70S
AREAWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. TREASURE COAST TERMINALS STAND TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY
OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH...
EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
VEER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FEET
TONIGHT..INITIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY.
TUE-FRI...THE ATLC HI PRES RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL LIFT N
AND MERGE WITH A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE LCL
WX PATTERN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE W ATLC AND SLOWLY WEAKENS WHILE
BCMG HIGHLY ELONGATED. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SERLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEK THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ERLY SWELL IN THE LCL
ATLC...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 75 87 75 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 50 30
MLB 87 78 89 78 / 50 40 40 40
VRB 88 76 88 76 / 50 40 40 40
LEE 88 74 91 75 / 30 10 50 30
SFB 86 74 91 74 / 40 20 50 30
ORL 88 75 91 76 / 40 20 50 30
FPR 88 77 88 77 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX/AVIATION...JOHNSON
FORECASTS/UPATES.....WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
405 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLY SEASON FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AS ITS BRIDGED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS
SOUTH AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. AT THE
SURFACE...OUTSIDE OF A MEDIOCRE 2 - 3 DEWPOINT DROP OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ISOLATED
AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE...
MAINTAINED POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS.
AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN...MODIFYING THE LOCAL
AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...
FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE BRIDGED BY THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER. DEEP ERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER CENTRAL FL...PUSHING THE REMNANT FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND BACK TO THE N WHILE TAPPING A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR UNDER THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE...H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
AOB 60PCT...H85-H50 AOB 50PCT.
DEEP E/SE WIND PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR DIURNAL
PREICP WHILE THE THE DRY MID LVL AIR KEEPS TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 50PCT.
EVEN SO... AT THE SAME TIME H50 TEMPS ARND -8C WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DRY AIR...KEEPING H85-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT INDICATE HIGH LVLS OF INSTABILITY...IT WILL INCREASE TSTM
POTENTIAL AS A 40KT H30-H20 JET STREAK TRAILING FROM THE DEPARTING
FRONTAL TROF DRAGS ITS WAY ACRS N FL.
WILL GO WITH A 30/40PCT COASTAL/INTERIOR SPLIT FOR PRECIP...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M/U80S...INTERIOR TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE L90S. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M/U70S AS THE BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW PREVENTS DECOUPLING AND PUSHES WARM OCEAN AIR ACRS CENTRAL FL.
WED-SUN...
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE CONSOLIDATED
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE W ATLC...IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED
GENERATING...GENERATING AN EXTENDED PD OF E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-
H50 LYR. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ALLOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO POOL ACRS THE
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL FL UNDER AN AIRMASS
WITH PWATS PUSHING THE 2.0"-2.2" RANGE.
THE PERSISTENT E/SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR
HIGHEST DIURNAL COVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SCT NOCTURNAL SHRAS.
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY
MODIFY UNDER THE STEADY TROPICAL FLOW REGIME. WILL CARRY 40-50PCT
POPS THRU THE PD. THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR AVG...M80S NEAR THE COAST AND U80S INLAND. MIN TEMPS ABV AVG
DUE TO THE SAME MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...M/U70S
AREAWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. TREASURE COAST TERMINALS STAND TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY
OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH...
EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
VEER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FEET
TONIGHT..INITIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY.
TUE-FRI...THE ATLC HI PRES RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL LIFT N
AND MERGE WITH A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE LCL
WX PATTERN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE W ATLC AND SLOWLY WEAKENS WHILE
BCMG HIGHLY ELONGATED. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SERLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEK THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ERLY SWELL IN THE LCL
ATLC...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 85 75 87 75 / 30 30 40 30
MCO 88 74 91 75 / 40 20 50 30
MLB 87 78 89 78 / 50 40 40 40
VRB 88 76 88 76 / 50 40 40 40
LEE 88 74 91 75 / 30 10 50 30
SFB 86 74 91 74 / 40 20 50 30
ORL 88 75 91 76 / 40 20 50 30
FPR 88 77 88 77 / 50 40 40 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ULRICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
947 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...MOIST SW FLOW HAS SETUP OVER THE REGION BRINGING A
MOSTLY SOLID AREA OF CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD SHIELD AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
ARE LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER...PRECIP WON/T AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR TODAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
PARTICULARLY GUSTY NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. NEAR TERM FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO NO UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MTN OBSCURATION AFTER 15/00Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...THEN AFTER 14/23Z BECOMING NW 10-20 KTS FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND COLD FRONT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...SW 20-30KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED NEAR 140W 42N AS OF 0830Z. THIS WILL DIG RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
CWA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND VIRGA IS ALREADY ON RADAR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KREO TO FAIRFIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NORTH TODAY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
FOR BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. LATEST EC MOS AND HRRR GUIDANCE GIVES MID 80S FOR THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS...FOR EXAMPLE...WHILE THE LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS GIVES MID 70S FOR THE SAME AREAS. WE DECIDED
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THE MOST PART. WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND FOR TUE KEPT THE CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...ENTERING OUR OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND
MAKING IT THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND
A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH FORECAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS EARLY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BECAUSE THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS JUST ONE PART OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY...AND POPS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES....
AS ANOTHER PART OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SW TO W WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MODERATE IN SRN HARNEY COUNTY...AND WILL
GUST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH IN THE MIDTERM...WITH THE MAIN PUNCHES EXPECTED
TO COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE FREEZING LEVELS
WILL HAVE DROPPED FOR THIS BRIEF PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOW...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
LIKELY IN CONJUNCTION WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN EACH SHORTWAVE EVENT /WED AND
THURS/...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN/T AGREE ON TIMING...SO DID NOT
FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY
ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT NORMAL SATURDAY AND
JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A TROUGH MAY SKIRT OUR
REGION TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN TO THE
BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BOISE ID
339 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED NEAR 140W 42N AS OF 0830Z. THIS WILL DIG RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
CWA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND VIRGA IS ALREADY ON RADAR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KREO TO FAIRFIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NORTH TODAY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
FOR BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. LATEST EC MOS AND HRRR GUIDANCE GIVES MID 80S FOR THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS...FOR EXAMPLE...WHILE THE LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS GIVES MID 70S FOR THE SAME AREAS. WE DECIDED
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THE MOST PART. WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND FOR TUE KEPT THE CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...ENTERING OUR OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND
MAKING IT THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND
A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH FORECAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS EARLY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BECAUSE THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS JUST ONE PART OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY...AND POPS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES....
AS ANOTHER PART OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SW TO W WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MODERATE IN SRN HARNEY COUNTY...AND WILL
GUST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH IN THE MIDTERM...WITH THE MAIN PUNCHES EXPECTED
TO COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE FREEZING LEVELS
WILL HAVE DROPPED FOR THIS BRIEF PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOW...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
LIKELY IN CONJUNCTION WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN EACH SHORTWAVE EVENT /WED AND
THURS/...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN/T AGREE ON TIMING...SO DID NOT
FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY
ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT NORMAL SATURDAY AND
JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A TROUGH MAY SKIRT OUR
REGION TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN TO THE
BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS/VIRGA BEGINNING ALREADY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AFTER 14/18Z. MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED AFTER 15/00Z IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS...SW
10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS BEHIND COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING NEAR KBKE AT
ABOUT 15/00Z AND SHOULD REACH KTWF AT ABOUT 15/12Z. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FT MSL...SW 15-25 KTS BECOMING W 25-35 KTS BY 15/00Z AND W 15-25
KTS AFTER 15/06Z.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BOISE
SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
140 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AND IS MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST SLOWLY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT HI-
RES MODELS HAVE GRASPED ONTO THIS THOUGH THEY ARE ALL EITHER TOO
FAST OR TOO BROAD IN COVERAGE WITH THE PRECIP. POP/WX GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. I HAVE BASICALLY
EXPANDED WHAT I HAD GOING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER. IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS WELL BUT IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL HAVE A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH SOME FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT CINH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO WORK
WITH. STILL...ALL THE HI-RES ARE ADAMANT ABOUT SPITTING SOMETHING
OUT. THE HRRR IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE AND I BELIEVE SO IN THIS CASE
AS WELL BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED
WEAK STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR SO. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY AND CERTAINLY ANY MENTION
WOULD HAVE TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
POPS MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE SAME. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS LARGELY SITS UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO SW FLOW AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
AIDE IN BRINGING BACK TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S BY MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK TO KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. RIDGING AND SW FLOW ALOFT GET
USHERED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COOL OFF TEMPS JUST A BIT BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS US TO THE PRIMARY ISSUE/S
FOR THE FORECAST.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH GFS
TYPICALLY THE FASTEST...BUT IN GENERAL THEY MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT...AND WED NIGHT/THUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED CAP WORK AGAINST THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY MON
NIGHT...AND AS SUCH IS REFLECTED WITH DRY POPS. THOUGH...AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH HELP FROM THE
LLJ. THE TUE AND WED OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BETTER MOISTURE...THE
LLJ...AND LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO FIGHT AS STRONG OF A
CAP...RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FINALLY...LATE
IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE EURO/CANADIAN/NAM BEGIN PUSHING IT THROUGH NW IA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS PEGS IT MORE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON MOVING FORWARD. UNTIL THEN...POPS REMAIN TEMPORALLY BROAD AND
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT THE PASSAGE LIKELY CALLS FOR. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT...AND THE CONTINUED PROGGED
UNSUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
STILL SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...COGIL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AND IS MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST SLOWLY. IT DOES APPEAR THAT HI-
RES MODELS HAVE GRASPED ONTO THIS THOUGH THEY ARE ALL EITHER TOO
FAST OR TOO BROAD IN COVERAGE WITH THE PRECIP. POP/WX GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS. I HAVE BASICALLY
EXPANDED WHAT I HAD GOING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER. IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS WELL BUT IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL HAVE A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH SOME FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT CINH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO WORK
WITH. STILL...ALL THE HI-RES ARE ADAMANT ABOUT SPITTING SOMETHING
OUT. THE HRRR IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE AND I BELIEVE SO IN THIS CASE
AS WELL BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED
WEAK STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR SO. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY AND CERTAINLY ANY MENTION
WOULD HAVE TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
POPS MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE SAME. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS LARGELY SITS UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO SW FLOW AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
AIDE IN BRINGING BACK TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S BY MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK TO KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. RIDGING AND SW FLOW ALOFT GET
USHERED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COOL OFF TEMPS JUST A BIT BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS US TO THE PRIMARY ISSUE/S
FOR THE FORECAST.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH GFS
TYPICALLY THE FASTEST...BUT IN GENERAL THEY MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT...AND WED NIGHT/THUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED CAP WORK AGAINST THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY MON
NIGHT...AND AS SUCH IS REFLECTED WITH DRY POPS. THOUGH...AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH HELP FROM THE
LLJ. THE TUE AND WED OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BETTER MOISTURE...THE
LLJ...AND LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO FIGHT AS STRONG OF A
CAP...RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FINALLY...LATE
IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE EURO/CANADIAN/NAM BEGIN PUSHING IT THROUGH NW IA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS PEGS IT MORE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON MOVING FORWARD. UNTIL THEN...POPS REMAIN TEMPORALLY BROAD AND
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT THE PASSAGE LIKELY CALLS FOR. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT...AND THE CONTINUED PROGGED
UNSUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...14/12Z
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO WESTERN IOWA MAY POP AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY INVOF KFOD. SOUTHERLY SFC WIND AT 10G22KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND VFR CIGS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
425 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER. IT SHOULD
BE MAINLY DRY AS WELL BUT IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS. WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL HAVE A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA. THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH SOME FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION. INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT CINH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO WORK
WITH. STILL...ALL THE HI-RES ARE ADAMANT ABOUT SPITTING SOMETHING
OUT. THE HRRR IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE AND I BELIEVE SO IN THIS CASE
AS WELL BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED
WEAK STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR SO. BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY AND CERTAINLY ANY MENTION
WOULD HAVE TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
POPS MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON
PERIOD.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE SAME. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS LARGELY SITS UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO SW FLOW AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
AIDE IN BRINGING BACK TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S BY MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK TO KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. RIDGING AND SW FLOW ALOFT GET
USHERED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COOL OFF TEMPS JUST A BIT BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS US TO THE PRIMARY ISSUE/S
FOR THE FORECAST.
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH GFS
TYPICALLY THE FASTEST...BUT IN GENERAL THEY MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT...AND WED NIGHT/THUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED CAP WORK AGAINST THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY MON
NIGHT...AND AS SUCH IS REFLECTED WITH DRY POPS. THOUGH...AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH HELP FROM THE
LLJ. THE TUE AND WED OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BETTER MOISTURE...THE
LLJ...AND LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO FIGHT AS STRONG OF A
CAP...RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FINALLY...LATE
IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE EURO/CANADIAN/NAM BEGIN PUSHING IT THROUGH NW IA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS PEGS IT MORE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON MOVING FORWARD. UNTIL THEN...POPS REMAIN TEMPORALLY BROAD AND
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT THE PASSAGE LIKELY CALLS FOR. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT...AND THE CONTINUED PROGGED
UNSUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES.
&&
.AVIATION...14/06Z
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT KFOD ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH CIGS AROUND 10 KFT OR ABOVE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...DONAVON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1206 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOW HOT IT GETS
AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND
NAM DID BEST ON THE JET THAT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW WITH
HEIGHTS WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WORST WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS
DOING THE BEST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM/GFS/SREF WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT HANDLE THE CORRECT LOCATIONS OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM COMPLETELY TOOK THAT PRECIPITATION
OUT. THE LATEST RAP HAS SOME NOCTURNAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING. OTHER
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SAY NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...THERE IS SOME LIFT AROUND BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN WITH WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PARAMETERS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOUTHERN STARTS GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
BASED ON YESTERDAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY. NEW GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR
TODAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
NEAR 100 DEGREES. WILL EITHER BREAK OR GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE
WEATHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICE TO SAY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...THERE
COULD BE TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DOING
BETTER ON THE JET. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET AFFECTS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE
POSITION. SURFACE IS IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS AGAIN WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH THE FAR SOUTH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
THE JET. SO ADJUSTED THIS AREA A LITTLE.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET LIFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST. AT THAT SAME TIME A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH. AT THE END OF THE NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH. SO EXPANDED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT THEY WANT TO MAKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BEFORE THE WINDS START SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEY
ARE FROM A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AM THINKING THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE WARMING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HINDER THE
WARMUP SOME. DID COOL THE MAXES SLIGHTLY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO THREATEN RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
DUE TO MIXING AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT...WINDS LOOK TO GET INTO
THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT
THE JET. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RIGHT BEFORE
THIS PERIOD STARTS...AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE. SO WHATEVER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIST IS AROUND...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE DO NOT COOL DOWN VERY MUCH IF AT ALL. SO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ELONGATE AND
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN H7 WAKE LOW WILL
FORM AND A TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC REFLECT A VERY
SHALLOW TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING. BEST POPS WILL
BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE H5
HIGH NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE CWA ONCE MORE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY BY 18Z ON TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER
20 PERCENT RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE
WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
FOR TUESDAY...AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS. AS STATED ABOVE...BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN
ON MONDAY BUT ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MIXING COULD MAKE THE WINDS STRONGER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER. FUELS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE DRIER BUT AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT/FIRE
WEATHER FOCAL POINT ASSESS THIS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND.....101 SET IN 1895
COLBY........100 SET IN 1935
TRIBUNE......99 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....98 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......99 SET IN 1955
RECORDS FOR TUESDAY
GOODLAND.....99 SET IN 1955
COLBY........98 SET IN 1955
TRIBUNE......98 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....99 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......100 SET IN 1955
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
534 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOW HOT IT GETS
AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND
NAM DID BEST ON THE JET THAT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW WITH
HEIGHTS WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WORST WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS
DOING THE BEST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM/GFS/SREF WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT HANDLE THE CORRECT LOCATIONS OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM COMPLETELY TOOK THAT PRECIPITATION
OUT. THE LATEST RAP HAS SOME NOCTURNAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING. OTHER
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SAY NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...THERE IS SOME LIFT AROUND BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN WITH WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PARAMETERS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOUTHERN STARTS GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
BASED ON YESTERDAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY. NEW GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR
TODAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
NEAR 100 DEGREES. WILL EITHER BREAK OR GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE
WEATHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICE TO SAY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...THERE
COULD BE TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DOING
BETTER ON THE JET. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET AFFECTS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE
POSITION. SURFACE IS IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS AGAIN WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH THE FAR SOUTH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
THE JET. SO ADJUSTED THIS AREA A LITTLE.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET LIFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST. AT THAT SAME TIME A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH. AT THE END OF THE NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH. SO EXPANDED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT THEY WANT TO MAKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BEFORE THE WINDS START SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEY
ARE FROM A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AM THINKING THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE WARMING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HINDER THE
WARMUP SOME. DID COOL THE MAXES SLIGHTLY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO THREATEN RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
DUE TO MIXING AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT...WINDS LOOK TO GET INTO
THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT
THE JET. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RIGHT BEFORE
THIS PERIOD STARTS...AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE. SO WHATEVER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIST IS AROUND...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE DO NOT COOL DOWN VERY MUCH IF AT ALL. SO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ELONGATE AND
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN H7 WAKE LOW WILL
FORM AND A TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC REFLECT A VERY
SHALLOW TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING. BEST POPS WILL
BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE H5
HIGH NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE CWA ONCE MORE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR BOTH SITES WILL CREATE LIGHT AND SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER
20 PERCENT RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE
WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
FOR TUESDAY...AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS. AS STATED ABOVE...BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN
ON MONDAY BUT ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MIXING COULD MAKE THE WINDS STRONGER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER. FUELS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE DRIER BUT AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT/FIRE
WEATHER FOCAL POINT ASSESS THIS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND.....101 SET IN 1895
COLBY........100 SET IN 1935
TRIBUNE......99 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....98 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......99 SET IN 1955
RECORDS FOR TUESDAY
GOODLAND.....99 SET IN 1955
COLBY........98 SET IN 1955
TRIBUNE......98 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....99 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......100 SET IN 1955
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
404 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOW HOT IT GETS
AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.
AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND
NAM DID BEST ON THE JET THAT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW WITH
HEIGHTS WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WORST WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS
DOING THE BEST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM/GFS/SREF WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT HANDLE THE CORRECT LOCATIONS OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM COMPLETELY TOOK THAT PRECIPITATION
OUT. THE LATEST RAP HAS SOME NOCTURNAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING. OTHER
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SAY NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...THERE IS SOME LIFT AROUND BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN WITH WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PARAMETERS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOUTHERN STARTS GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.
BASED ON YESTERDAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY. NEW GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR
TODAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
NEAR 100 DEGREES. WILL EITHER BREAK OR GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE
WEATHER.
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICE TO SAY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...THERE
COULD BE TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DOING
BETTER ON THE JET. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET AFFECTS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.
MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE
POSITION. SURFACE IS IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS AGAIN WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH THE FAR SOUTH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
THE JET. SO ADJUSTED THIS AREA A LITTLE.
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET LIFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST. AT THAT SAME TIME A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH. AT THE END OF THE NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH. SO EXPANDED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.
MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT THEY WANT TO MAKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BEFORE THE WINDS START SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEY
ARE FROM A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AM THINKING THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE WARMING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HINDER THE
WARMUP SOME. DID COOL THE MAXES SLIGHTLY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO THREATEN RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
DUE TO MIXING AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT...WINDS LOOK TO GET INTO
THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT
THE JET. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RIGHT BEFORE
THIS PERIOD STARTS...AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE. SO WHATEVER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIST IS AROUND...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER.
MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE DO NOT COOL DOWN VERY MUCH IF AT ALL. SO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ELONGATE AND
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN H7 WAKE LOW WILL
FORM AND A TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC REFLECT A VERY
SHALLOW TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING. BEST POPS WILL
BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE H5
HIGH NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE CWA ONCE MORE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015
FOR KGLD AND KMCK VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. FOR KGLD MAY SEE WINDS
ABOVE 12KT THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER TAF VALID TIME BEFORE
FALLING BELOW 12KTS FROM 10Z OR SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KMCK WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BELOW 12KTS
BUT FROM 20Z-23Z WINDS LOOK TO GUST NEAR 20KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER 00Z WINDS FALL JUST BELOW 12KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER
20 PERCENT RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE
WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.
FOR TUESDAY...AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS. AS STATED ABOVE...BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN
ON MONDAY BUT ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MIXING COULD MAKE THE WINDS STRONGER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER. FUELS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE DRIER BUT AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT/FIRE
WEATHER FOCAL POINT ASSESS THIS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
&&
.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
RECORDS FOR TODAY
GOODLAND.....101 SET IN 1895
COLBY........100 SET IN 1935
TRIBUNE......99 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....98 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......99 SET IN 1955
RECORDS FOR TUESDAY
GOODLAND.....99 SET IN 1955
COLBY........98 SET IN 1955
TRIBUNE......98 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....99 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......100 SET IN 1955
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
621 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
BRING FANTASTIC LATE SUMMER WEATHER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
605 PM UPDATE: WITH THE XCPTN OF THE TSTM NEAR EASTON...LATEST
RADAR REF IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HR INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OF
SHWRS AND WDLY SCT TSTMS TO MSLY SHWRS...SO WE WILL GO OUT THIS
UPDATE WITH JUST SCT SHWRS...WITH THE TSTM NEAR EASTON MOVG E INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITHIN THE NEXT 15 MIN OR SO. LATEST HRRR MODEL HRLY
SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT SHOWS MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING LATE TNGT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ESE FROM NRN ME INTO
CNTRL NB.
OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED FROM OBSVD FCST HI TEMPS
FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN...THRU 5-6PM OBS TO...ATTM...UNCHGD FCST
LOWS POSTED AT 6-7 AM. WE WILL WAIT FOR MORE DEFINABLE TRENDS THRU
MID EVE BEFORE MAKING ANY NECESSARY CHGS TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS.
ORGNL DISC: LATEST KCBW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCTD TO NUMRS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON RADAR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER TO
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EWRD AWAY FROM OUR CWA
AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD BRINGING
FANTASTIC LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO MAINE. ON WEDNESDAY A 1028MB MSLP
HIGH CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING A CLEAR WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT...BUT A BIT
WARMER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S...THERE
IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY FOR A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU.
THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
THE NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGING AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY WITH ALL
MODEL CAMPS KEEPING THE EAST COAST RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS
FEATURE...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE COOL DOWN EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SHORT
TERM...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE TAF
LOCATIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ050 AND
ANZ051 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO WSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT AND
WAVES HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET. SEAS AND WAVES SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM:CONDITIONS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH WAVES AROUND 2 FEET.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...VJN/DUMONT
MARINE...VJN/DUMONT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
810 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG
PATTERN...WITH DEEP SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 12Z
H85 TEMPS WERE 18C AT APX/GRB AND 19C AT MPX. DESPITE STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MODEST H85 THETA E ADVECTION THAT SUPPORTED
SOME SCT SHOWERS/TS OVER NE WI EARLIER THIS MRNG...ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH LLVL ACYC FLOW AND VERY SHARP CAPPING/DRY MID
LYR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB THAT ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WX OVER UPR MI. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
80S AT MANY PLACES AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION DESPITE SOME PATCHY HI
CLDS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS/WINDS AND SLIM
PCPN CHCS.
TNGT...STRONG SW FLOW...WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT INCRSG H925
WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS...IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE AREA. NOCTURNAL
COOLING/INVRN WL LIMIT THE SFC WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THESE STRONG
WINDS WL INITIALLY TAP AN AREA OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW THE H85 FLOW VEERING A BIT OVERNGT AND
ADVECTING HIER H85-7 THETA E INTO MAINLY THE NW HALF OF UPR MI
OVERNGT. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME PCPN IN THIS AREA
LATE. BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAPPING DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX
RAOB...THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING/HGT FALLS AND
RELATIVELY DRY SFC-H7 LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z NAM FCST SDNGS...OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE DRIER GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ACCOMPANYING THE
MSTR RETURN WL RESULT IN A VERY WARM OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER THE NW HALF...WHERE FCST WL TEND
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE.
WED...MAINTAINED SOME SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR NW CWA...WHERE SHRTWV
FCST TO LIFT NE THRU FAR NW ONTARIO MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO AXIS OF
HIER H85-7 THETA E TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/TS. THE REST OF THE CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE THE STRONG LLVL WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTS AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 20-22C...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BEFORE TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PAINT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION...STEEP 750-400MB
LAPSE RATES AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN LIMIT AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS ANY LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE WEAKER SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE
GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE
POPS AND EXPECT CAPPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONFINE MUCH OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND FEEL
THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK IS FAIRLY REASONABLE.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED
THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST (AND INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON). HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER (60S).
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE/LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO FOCUS
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UP IN THAT AREA AND
HAVE VALUES NEAR LIKELIES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...RAPIDLY ENDING THE RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AND WITH THE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...THE LOWER 60S HIGHS WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. FORTUNATELY...INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH THAT
WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL GO WITH SILENT 20 POPS FOR
THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 809 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WILL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOW PRES IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE SFC WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS...THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS AT IWD THRGOUTH THE NIGHT.
AT THE MORE SHELTERED CMX SITE...LLWS WL DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION DEVELOPS BELOW THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE
FORECAST FOR SAW IS LESS CERTAIN AS THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF GUSTY
WINDS AS WELL TONIGHT. BUT MAINTAINED FCST LLWS THERE TONIGHT IN
CASE THE NEAR SFC STABILITY BECOMES SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT MIXING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WED
AS THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE SITUATED BTWN A LO PRES TROF TO THE NW
AND HI PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AS HI AS 25-30 KTS TONIGHT INTO WED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT WED AFTERNOON/THU...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE N AROUND 20 KT
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE ON SAT INTO SUN
AS TRAILING HI PRES MOVES BY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WHILE THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BE EJECTING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS.
THE TRACK OF MOST OF THESE WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS
WILL KEEP THEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WITH THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES DUE TO
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INDICATED ON SOUNDINGS BELOW 15KFT AND THIN SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE QPF (ESPECIALLY THE GFS).
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL BE HELD OFF BY THE STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900-875MB...SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH MIXING ON WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT.
THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
COME AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW RUNS
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE ONE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INSTEAD OF LAKE WINNIPEG). WHILE MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR THE POPS
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
MUCAPES RISING TO 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THURSDAY
EVENING. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...AROUND 30KTS...BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE STORMS SINCE MOST OF THE SHEAR ARRIVES IN THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR VALUES HEADING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE U.P....FALL BELOW 20KTS AND THINK THAT WILL LIMIT MUCH
OF THE SEVERE THREAT. IN ADDITION...FREEZING LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LOOK TO BE AROUND 13KFT AND WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS BUT
FORTUNATELY THE STORM MOTION (NORTHEAST AT 30-40KTS) WILL KEEP THEM
FROM STAYING IN PLACE TOO LONG.
WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE FRONT EXITS...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS KEY FOR
THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT HAS ON THE U.P.. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.P.
SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR NOW.
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME AND FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DID RUN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES ARE A SOLID 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WHEN COMBINING THIS UPCOMING WARM PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MONTH AS A WHOLE WILL END UP PRETTY WARM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH MIXING DAYTIME
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW...
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
137 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.
TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH MIXING DAYTIME
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW...
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
730 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.
TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 15-25KT...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.
DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.
TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT KSAW/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
320 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS...ONLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WAA IN SW FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WARMEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
ALL 12Z MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY UNDER RISING 5H RIDGE
HEIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS GENERATES PCPN OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE MID-UPR RIDGE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH. LOOKING AT
THE GFS BUFR SNDGS AT KIWD IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE ANY PCPN BEING
SQUEEZED OUT OF SO DRY A SOUNDING PROFILE. ALSO...ALL THE POSITIVE
AREA (370 J/KG CAPE) IS ABOVE 650 MB AND THERE IS A 14C CAP AT 775
MB WITH OVER 250 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT AND KEEP A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH 16 TO 19C 8H TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF THE CWA WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. INLAND TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (MID 70S) WITH SOME MODERATION IN SW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL ONLY BE AROUND
70F.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.
WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.
SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.
WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.
TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT KSAW/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30 KT S TO SW
WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUE THRU WED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS...ONLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WAA IN SW FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WARMEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
ALL 12Z MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY UNDER RISING 5H RIDGE
HEIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS GENERATES PCPN OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE MID-UPR RIDGE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH. LOOKING AT
THE GFS BUFR SNDGS AT KIWD IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE ANY PCPN BEING
SQUEEZED OUT OF SO DRY A SOUNDING PROFILE. ALSO...ALL THE POSITIVE
AREA (370 J/KG CAPE) IS ABOVE 650 MB AND THERE IS A 14C CAP AT 775
MB WITH OVER 250 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT AND KEEP A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH 16 TO 19C 8H TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF THE CWA WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. INLAND TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (MID 70S) WITH SOME MODERATION IN SW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL ONLY BE AROUND
70F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
LATE SUMMER WARMTH IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR THU-FRI AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE STILL
HINTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
SW UPPER FLOW ALOFT. UPPER WAVES ARE LACKING FOR MOISTURE THOUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE INTERVALS OF MID CLOUDS 15-20 KFT
BUT IT STAYS VERY DRY BLO THAT CLOUD BASE. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WITH SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SUPPOSE
THERE COULD BE THICKER MID CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES. BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
WEST ESPECIALLY AS H85 JET VEERS SW AND BECOMES AIMED AT UPPER LAKES
WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. H85 JET AND CONVERGENCE WOULD
INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO TRIGGER THE SHRA/TSRA.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING THROUGH WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
WEAKER WAVES ON MON AND TUE. OVERALL...SEEMS THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE WEST
AND FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LK SUPERIOR.
LATER ON WED...SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK SLIM AS
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST...GREATEST MLCAPES TOWARD
1000J/KG REMAIN OVER NEB/IA INTO MN.
LATE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PROBABLY ENDS UP BEING THE MAIN STORY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE READINGS INTO THE 80S IN MID
SEPTEMBER AS RECORDS FOR 14-16 SEPT ARE STILL IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FOR THIS WEEK...BASED ON H85 TEMPS OF AT
LEAST 16 ON TUE AND 18-20C WED AND THU...SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE. NEED DEEPER MIXING TO
SEE THAT DEGREE OF WARMTH THOUGH AND ANY SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUDS WILL
DAMPEN THAT POTENTIAL. EVEN SO THOUGH...STEADY AND GUSTY AT TIMES S
TO SW WINDS IN TIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN TROUGH OVER PLAINS AND
RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN MINIMAL LAKE MODIFICATION AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE AND WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR
FM WEST ACROSS KEWEENAW TO NORTH CENTRAL TO SEE WARMEST TEMPS. EVEN
WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH DWPNTS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MOST HUMID DAY WOULD BE ON THU WITH DWPNTS INTO
THE 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONCERNING THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING OF FROPA THU/FRI BUT THAT IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR BEING THAT
FAR OUT. GFS IS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO A USUAL BIAS.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVEN ON THE GFS WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...GOING TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ITS FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALSO
SINCE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH FRONT STILL CLOSE BY...LIKE THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT OUT
AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. WILL TREND THAT
WAY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS IDEA WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEM-
NH IS A NOTEABLE SLOWER TREND AS 24 HR AGO BOTH OF THESE MODELS
SHOWED FRONT/QPF MAINLY EAST OF CWA FOR FRIDAY. MUCAPES 0-3KM 1000-
2000J/KG AND SW LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS
TSRA TOO. SHEAR IS STRONGEST THU NIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WHICH IS
PROBABLY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
REGION. PWATS OVER 1.50 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST GEM-NH SUGGESTS LINGERING SHRA ON SATURDAY...BUT EVEN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT SOLN POINTS TO MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY. KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS BUT REMOVED POPS IN THE AFTN. REST OF WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT KSAW/KCMX.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30 KT S TO SW
WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUE THRU WED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
649 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2015
Expect limited rain chances tonight as atmosphere remains dry and
ascent over the area tonight will remain weak and strongest flow
aloft stays north and west of the area. Atmospheric moisture also
remains relatively limited with PWATS ranging from 0.75-1.25
inches by 12Z tomorrow. Lows tonight will be similar to last night
with mostly clear skies and mainly light winds. Stayed with the
mainly agreeable MOS guidance for the most part.
Britt
.LONG TERM: (Wednesday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2015
(Wednesday-Friday)
The dry weather is expected to continue over the area Wednesday
and Wednesday night as we continue to lie in either neutral or
subsident vertical motion as the best flow aloft continues to stay
north and west of the area. Chances for thunderstorms will
increase over northeast Missouri and west central Illinois by
Thursday as CAPES increase over the area at the same time the tail
end of short wave trough will move across the area. Showers and
thunderstorms will be likely, particularly north of I-70, as the
active upper westerlies move farther southeastward along with the
attendant cold front.
Temperatures will be getting warmer the next few days with some
areas climbing above 90 degrees as forecast soundings show mixing up
into the 900-800mb layer the next two days. 850mb temperatures
are back up close to 20C, so went above MOS guidance.
(Friday Night-Monday)
GFS and ECMWF are in decent agreement that a shortwave trough will
move across the northern Plains into the Great Lakes Friday night.
This will push a cold front across the area from northwest to
southeast Friday night. Will keep the chance of thunderstorms going
over most of the area Friday Night with chances confined to
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois on Saturday. Then back to
dry weather for Sunday as the surface front moves south and a
large surface high builds into the area. Both the GFS and ECMWF
show a southern stream system may bring some showers and
thunderstorms on Sunday night over the eastern Ozarks.
Temperatures will fall back below normal behind the front over the
weekend into early next as 850mb temperatures fall back into the
10- 15C range.
Britt
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2015
Southerly flow produced by high pressure over the east coast and
falling pressures over the Plains will be the dominate synoptic
feature over our area for this TAF period. It still appears that
resultant low level jet (from 18z NAM and latest RUC runs) will
produce a marginal LLWS threat over KCOU and KUIN during the late
evening/overnight hours. Guidance also indicates that southerly
flow will finally begin to pick up some lower level moisture, with
plan view RH progs suggesting at least some of the cloudiness
currently over the Arklatex advecting into the region early
Wednesday morning. For now have brought this cloudiness in with
bases aoa 5kft.
Specifics for KSTL: VFR conditions will continue. Expect just a
few cirrus clouds overnight with southeast winds 4-8kts, and
scattered clouds around 5kft on Wednesday with south winds
10-15kts.
Truett
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
625 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 355 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
Morning rain showers have since dissipated however the residual
cloud cover still remains early this afternoon. Those clouds have
held temperature at bay a bit today however, those clouds will
continue to diminish through the late afternoon and high will warm
into the mid 80s. Strong southerly winds this afternoon will
continue tonight as the forecast area remains wedged between surface
high pressure across the eastern CONUS and a cold front across the
western Plains. This will help temperatures remain mild overnight in
the mid 60 to near 70. Similar conditions to today are expected
again tomorrow as the pattern changes little with the upper level
ridge remaining in place. Expect strong southerly winds again
tomorrow with increased sunshine allowing highs to rise into the mid
to upper 80s. Wednesday night a mid level shortwave will move out
int the Plains forcing the aforementioned cold front into the
eastern Plains. Warm air advection out ahead of the front may allow
for showers across northern Missouri late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. On Thursday, the front begins to slowly sag into
the CWA. Models soundings indicate that there will be a cap in place
through the day Thursday as well as a significant mid level dry
layer between 4-10kft. As such, Thursday looks to remain dry.
However, with steep mid and upper level lapse rates and strong
instability with CAPE values between 2500-3500K/Kg, if something
does develop there is the potential for a severe storm of two.
The main period of concern continues to look like the Thursday night
through Friday night timeframe as several round of thunderstorms will
be possible. Thursday night, the slow moving cold front will be
draped across the CWA as a nocturnal 40-50KT southwesterly LLJ will
get ramped up. This will provide for elevated convection across the
CWA with the best chances along and north of the Missouri River. The
main threats would be for large hail and heavy rain with PWATs
around 1.75". Those thunderstorms will continue into Friday morning
which may have an impact on any severe potential later on Friday.
The main concern at this time appears to be the continued have rain
threat and the potential for flash and river flooding based on the
possibility of a few heavy rounds of storms in a 24 hour period.
The front will finally sag through the CWA late Friday into Friday
night. That will set the stage for a glorious weekend as surface
high pressure builds in for the weekend with much more manageable
temperatures in the low to mid 70s. The beginning of next week the
upper flow becomes more zonal. A few shortwaves moving in zonal flow
could bring a round of storms to the southern CWA Sunday night into
Monday otherwise the beginning of the work week looks to remain dry.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 624 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
Winds are expected to remain gusty tonight and with the strongest
winds aloft shifting north of the terminal, low level wind shear
potential looks minimal.
Moisture will start to stream northward overnight and through the day
tomorrow. For now, it looks like conditions will remain VFR with the
moisture advection. But there is some uncertainty with timing and how
low the moisture will be. The RAP shows the potential for lo MVFR
ceilings. Other models are bit slower with the moisture and aren`t as
low. So for now, will keep ceilings VFR.
Winds will once again be strong and gusty from the south. Think
sustained winds in the 15-20kt range with gusts in the 25-30kt range
are likely.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...73
AVIATION...CDB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1229 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.UPDATE...
We had to increase pops over in southeast Kansas and western
Missouri this afternoon in response to a small area of rainfall
approaching from the west.
It appears as though this rain is associated with a left over MCV,
and could make it as far as Interstate 49 prior to dissipating.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Another pleasant morning underway across the region. Surface high
pressure has moved toward the mid Atlantic states and on the back
side of this high, southerly winds have developed. Thus far
moisture return has been lacking, and this is due (in part) to
easterly winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will take a
few days for southerly flow to tap into Gulf moisture.
A complex of storms is moving across northwestern and north
central portions of Oklahoma at this hour. This is being fed by a
rather strong low level jet. Cloud steering level winds are
general west to east right now, but they will shift to a more
southwest to northeast direction after sunrise. This shift in the
steering level winds along with a narrow area of isentropic
upglide (centered on the 310K level) may be enough to produce a
few showers and storms across the southwestern quarter of the
outlook area this morning. HRRR provides the strongest signal for
development while the remainder of the models are a bit more
bearish for development. Given that all models show a period of
isentropic upglide across the region this morning, have gone ahead
and introduced slight chance PoPs.
Mix of sun/clouds this morning should give way to mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. Our gradual warming trend will continue with
most locations warming to a few degrees either side of 80. Winds
will be breezy across the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with gusts nearing 30mph from time to time.
Heading into tonight, another strong low level jet will develop.
It appears the best focus for lift will be just to our north and
northwest. As a result, have pulled the slight chance PoPs out of
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
This will result in mainly quiet weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Breezy and warm conditions are expected Tuesday.
Winds will slacken a bit Wednesday/Thursday, but temperatures will
continue their upward trend, with most locations in the upper 80s
by Thursday.
As has been advertised the past few days, a decent shortwave will
move across the northern tier of states late Thursday into Friday.
This will send a cold front our way and increase our chances for
showers and storms from north to south Thursday night through
Friday night. The upper ridge still looks to be strong enough to
slow the southward progression of the surface cold front. The
question is, just how far to the south will this boundary end up.
Regardless, of where it ends up by Saturday, it will begin to move
back to the north on Sunday. With a boundary over/near the area
next weekend, have kept a mention of slight chance/chance PoPs.
Fropa/clouds/rain will knock temperatures back to at or below
average from Friday through next weekend.
At this point, the risk for strong/severe storms looks minimal
with the late week cold front. From a large scale perspective, the
incoming trough is positively tilted, deep layer shear is
marginal (30kt) and MLCAPE is progged to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Pilots dealing with
the Joplin airport should monitor radar trends early this
afternoon, as a small area of rain could impact this airfield.
Otherwise look for southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph at Joplin
and Springfield this afternoon. Low level wind shear could be in
play tonight as a 40 knot jet develops at around 2000 ft.
Safe Travels.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Cramer
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
640 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Another pleasant morning underway across the region. Surface high
pressure has moved toward the mid Atlantic states and on the back
side of this high, southerly winds have developed. Thus far
moisture return has been lacking, and this is due (in part) to
easterly winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will take a
few days for southerly flow to tap into Gulf moisture.
A complex of storms is moving across northwestern and north
central portions of Oklahoma at this hour. This is being fed by a
rather strong low level jet. Cloud steering level winds are
general west to east right now, but they will shift to a more
southwest to northeast direction after sunrise. This shift in the
steering level winds along with a narrow area of isentropic
upglide (centered on the 310K level) may be enough to produce a
few showers and storms across the southwestern quarter of the
outlook area this morning. HRRR provides the strongest signal for
development while the remainder of the models are a bit more
bearish for development. Given that all models show a period of
isentropic upglide across the region this morning, have gone ahead
and introduced slight chance PoPs.
Mix of sun/clouds this morning should give way to mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. Our gradual warming trend will continue with
most locations warming to a few degrees either side of 80. Winds
will be breezy across the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with gusts nearing 30mph from time to time.
Heading into tonight, another strong low level jet will develop.
It appears the best focus for lift will be just to our north and
northwest. As a result, have pulled the slight chance PoPs out of
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
This will result in mainly quiet weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Breezy and warm conditions are expected Tuesday.
Winds will slacken a bit Wednesday/Thursday, but temperatures will
continue their upward trend, with most locations in the upper 80s
by Thursday.
As has been advertised the past few days, a decent shortwave will
move across the northern tier of states late Thursday into Friday.
This will send a cold front our way and increase our chances for
showers and storms from north to south Thursday night through
Friday night. The upper ridge still looks to be strong enough to
slow the southward progression of the surface cold front. The
question is, just how far to the south will this boundary end up.
Regardless, of where it ends up by Saturday, it will begin to move
back to the north on Sunday. With a boundary over/near the area
next weekend, have kept a mention of slight chance/chance PoPs.
Fropa/clouds/rain will knock temperatures back to at or below
average from Friday through next weekend.
At this point, the risk for strong/severe storms looks minimal
with the late week cold front. From a large scale perspective, the
incoming trough is positively tilted, deep layer shear is
marginal (30kt) and MLCAPE is progged to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0629 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Aviation concerns for the Ozarks will focus on showers and
lingering low level wind this morning and wind shear over night
tonight. Showers had developed across the western Ozarks with the
potential for scattered showers to impact KSGF and KJLN this
morning. The ingredients for the showers will diminish through
the morning with VFR conditions expected this afternoon for all
terminals. Low level wind shear will dissipate this morning as
the low level jet weakens, only to develop again tonight as is
once again strengthens with LLWS for all aerodromes during most of
the overnight hours.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Another pleasant morning underway across the region. Surface high
pressure has moved toward the mid Atlantic states and on the back
side of this high, southerly winds have developed. Thus far
moisture return has been lacking, and this is due (in part) to
easterly winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will take a
few days for southerly flow to tap into Gulf moisture.
A complex of storms is moving across northwestern and north
central portions of Oklahoma at this hour. This is being fed by a
rather strong low level jet. Cloud steering level winds are
general west to east right now, but they will shift to a more
southwest to northeast direction after sunrise. This shift in the
steering level winds along with a narrow area of isentropic
upglide (centered on the 310K level) may be enough to produce a
few showers and storms across the southwestern quarter of the
outlook area this morning. HRRR provides the strongest signal for
development while the remainder of the models are a bit more
bearish for development. Given that all models show a period of
isentropic upglide across the region this morning, have gone ahead
and introduced slight chance PoPs.
Mix of sun/clouds this morning should give way to mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. Our gradual warming trend will continue with
most locations warming to a few degrees either side of 80. Winds
will be breezy across the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with gusts nearing 30mph from time to time.
Heading into tonight, another strong low level jet will develop.
It appears the best focus for lift will be just to our north and
northwest. As a result, have pulled the slight chance PoPs out of
the forecast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
This will result in mainly quiet weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Breezy and warm conditions are expected Tuesday.
Winds will slacken a bit Wednesday/Thursday, but temperatures will
continue their upward trend, with most locations in the upper 80s
by Thursday.
As has been advertised the past few days, a decent shortwave will
move across the northern tier of states late Thursday into Friday.
This will send a cold front our way and increase our chances for
showers and storms from north to south Thursday night through
Friday night. The upper ridge still looks to be strong enough to
slow the southward progression of the surface cold front. The
question is, just how far to the south will this boundary end up.
Regardless, of where it ends up by Saturday, it will begin to move
back to the north on Sunday. With a boundary over/near the area
next weekend, have kept a mention of slight chance/chance PoPs.
Fropa/clouds/rain will knock temperatures back to at or below
average from Friday through next weekend.
At this point, the risk for strong/severe storms looks minimal
with the late week cold front. From a large scale perspective, the
incoming trough is positively tilted, deep layer shear is
marginal (30kt) and MLCAPE is progged to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals through Monday.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase at the surface
tonight through Monday as surface high pressure shifts to the
east. Surface winds will gust over 20 kts at times on Monday. Low
level wind shear will increase overnight and persist into early
Monday. A cluster of weakening showers and storms may move into
far southwestern Missouri but any impact on terminals is expected
to be minimal if any at this time.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
750 PM MDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
UPDATE...
THE UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE OVERNIGHT SHOULD REMAIN DRY FOR MOST
AREAS...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
THE HRRR IS ON BOARD WITH THIS IDEA AND HAS BEEN VERIFYING WELL
TODAY. IT BRINGS THE PRECIPITATION IN AFTER 6 AM WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE ON GOING FORECAST. PROTON
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER OF THE NORTHWESTERN
UNITED STATES...INCLUDING NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
TONIGHT WEAK RIDGING WILL MAKE FOR A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT...BUT
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH BODY WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS IT ROTATES THROUGH. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO
EXACT PRECIP AMOUNTS AS MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME DRY
AIR WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY ANOTHER PERIOD OF WEAK RIDGING
WILL RETURN...FOR A RETURN TO LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS. SOME AT
LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING WILL ALSO OCCUR ON THURSDAY FOR COOL AND
SUNNY CONDITIONS. GILCHRIST
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THE INITIAL PERIODS AS ECMWF AND
ESPECIALLY THE GFS ARE WETTER. THE GEM WAS DRYEST MODEL. REST OF
FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROF LIFTING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES BY THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED PERIOD
OPENS WITH TRAILING SHORTWAVE FROM THIS TROF MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT BASIN TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WAVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH
TO KEEP MOST OF THE MOISTURE AND RAIN POTENTIAL OUT OF THE REGION
BUT COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE UPPER
FLOW TURNS FROM NORTHWEST TO WEST WITH JET STREAMING ACROSS
CANADA. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES IN THE FASTER FLOW NORTH OF THE
BORDER...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ONE DIPPING SOUTH AND PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO MONTANA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE REBOUND THROUGH THE PERIOD FOLLOWING
THE COOLER UPPER TROF PASSAGE. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH TAF SITES HAVING TO
DODGE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. STEADIER SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AT TIMES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO
EAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO LOWERING
CEILINGS AND REDUCED VSBYS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EAST AT
10 TO 15 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. MALIAWCO
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
843 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015
.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST THIS
MORNING. GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WAS COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO THE NW U.S.. PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
DEEPENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WITH A STRONGER WAVE MOVING NE OUT OF WY TONIGHT. GFS AND
WRF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACING CONVECTION OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR DEVELOPED SOME CONVECTION FURTHER
TO THE E AND N TODAY...TOWARD KBIL...THE PRYORS AND
HARLOWTON...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THESE AREAS
SUPPORTING THE FORECAST. MOST MODELS SHOWED NO CAPE FOR TODAY BUT
ALL AGREED ON STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKED REASONABLE.
ONLY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND A
FEW WIND GRIDS TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS.
ALSO INCREASED THE HAINES INDEX IN A FEW AREAS DUE TO THE WARM AND
DRY SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +8 TO +12 DEGREES C OVER THE AREA. ARTHUR
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...
MAIN FEATURES OF THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE THE TRANSITION FROM WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO A SEASONABLE AND WETTER PATTERN AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED IN THIS MEAN TROUGH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WHILE TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...THE MORE DRASTIC COOL DOWN WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN WE SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA.
THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH PHASES WITH SOME MONSOONAL ENERGY MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AFTER 6PM. SHOWERS WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...WITH NOT MUCH QPF...AS WE LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FORCING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LOCATIONS WEST OF
ROUNDUP...BILLINGS...AND SHERIDAN. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE
MID 50S IN THE PLAINS.
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH
BILLINGS AND LOCATIONS EAST AFTER 6PM. SIMILAR TO TODAY...SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT EARLIER OF A START COMPARED TO TODAY. WITH
THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD BUT STILL OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REACH BILLINGS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS
MOVING IN ALOFT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND CURRENTLY HAVE SOME
RAIN-SNOW MIXES ABOVE 10000 FEET. MUCH COOLER...BUT STILL
SEASONABLE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN VALLEYS BECAUSE OF THE EARLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE AS WELL AND IN THE
MID 40S. DOBBS
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...
A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WED/THU. WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS AND COOLER TEMPS WITH EACH OF
THESE WAVES. ORIENTATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN OVER OUR WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...FLOW WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AS AIRMASS TURNS A BIT COLDER. AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT MORE WITH EACH OF THESE FAST-MOVING
TROFS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. 700MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -3C
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 8KFT OR SO ON THURSDAY...THOSE
PLANNING TO TRAVEL OVER BEARTOOTH PASS SHOULD BE AWARE. 500MB
TEMPS TO NEAR -20C ON THURSDAY COULD YIELD SOME SMALL HAIL/
GRAUPEL WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME BREEZY W-NW WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONTS EACH DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.
HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE WITH FLAT RIDGING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
WHICH WILL TAKE US THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
ONCE WE GET PAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY OR TUESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS.
JKL
&&
.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE SW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS...AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. JKL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/072 047/068 044/067 044/071 045/075 049/078
2/T 44/W 35/T 43/T 30/B 00/B 11/U
LVM 081 050/065 044/059 039/060 037/068 039/072 044/075
2/T 55/W 36/T 45/T 40/B 01/B 11/U
HDN 085 052/077 045/071 042/070 040/073 040/078 044/080
1/B 33/W 23/T 43/T 31/B 00/U 01/U
MLS 084 057/080 049/076 046/070 045/070 046/077 048/079
1/U 32/T 23/T 43/T 31/U 00/U 01/U
4BQ 085 057/083 051/081 046/070 045/070 043/077 047/080
1/U 22/W 23/T 31/B 41/B 00/U 01/U
BHK 082 057/083 050/076 046/069 044/068 044/075 046/078
0/B 11/B 23/T 41/B 31/B 00/U 01/U
SHR 085 055/079 047/076 041/070 039/070 038/077 041/078
1/B 34/W 23/T 33/T 30/B 00/U 01/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
603 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGES WITH
SEASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JETS.
WE HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH ONE OF THOSE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROFS AND THIS HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES TO QUARTERS.
DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CHANGE OUR ZONAL FLOW TO MORE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS.
AT 20Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH BRISK SOUTH WINDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 40 TO
60KTS. 850MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12DEG C. AND THERE IS A
LITTLE POOLING OF H7 MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
DEGC/KM. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 10-14DEGC ARE PROGGED
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR/RAP AND HI RES ARW/NMM
ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER 05-07Z. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
LATER NIGHT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HEAT INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE CAP COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND COULD LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROF WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY CONFINED POP MENTION TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS 1000-2000 J/KG AND THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SOME STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MAINLY HOT AND DRY.
THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG.
HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE DURING THE
SHORT TERM. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25KTS SUSTAINED WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KOFK BETWEEN 21-00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THIS TAF SET. WIND SHEAR
IS THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND RATHER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RELAXING
ONLY SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN GUSTS ON
TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL MID-MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
331 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGES WITH
SEASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JETS.
WE HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH ONE OF THOSE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROFS AND THIS HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES TO QUARTERS.
DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CHANGE OUR ZONAL FLOW TO MORE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS.
AT 20Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH BRISK SOUTH WINDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 40 TO
60KTS. 850MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12DEG C. AND THERE IS A
LITTLE POOLING OF H7 MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
DEGC/KM. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 10-14DEGC ARE PROGGED
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR/RAP AND HI RES ARW/NMM
ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER 05-07Z. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
LATER NIGHT.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HEAT INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE CAP COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND COULD LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROF WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY CONFINED POP MENTION TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS 1000-2000 J/KG AND THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SOME STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MAINLY HOT AND DRY.
THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG.
HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
THURSDAY. PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE DURING THE
SHORT TERM. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25KTS SUSTAINED WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS A 40 TO 60
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
312 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AND A SECOND
SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE DRIEST DAY THIS WORK WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON
DECK THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SEVERAL SWA`S HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS A WELL DEFINED
QPF SWATH FROM ELKO COUNTY TO LANDER COUNTY...WHICH IS IN LOCK
STEP WITH THE NAM`S AREA OF CONVERGENCE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS. EXPECTING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS TO COLLIDE WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FROM AN INCOMING VORT MAX. PWS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...WITH
A RETURN INTERVAL OF TWO TO FIVE YEARS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INLAND...THE U AND V
COMPONENT ANOMALIES SPIKE AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...PINGING
INTO A 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL. THE CAVEAT BEING CLOUD COVERAGE
INHIBITING WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES.
TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ORBITING AROUND THE PACNW FULL TROUGH IS THE
PROBLEM O` THE DAY. WITH TIME AND STRENGTH BEING THE ISSUE...WILL
BROADBRUSH A BIT. NO LARGE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. RAISED
SNOW LEVELS A HAIR OVER PREVIOUS THINKING AS TONS OF COLD AIR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WANT TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO BELOW 9000 IN PLACES IN THE NORTH BUT MOST WILL BE WELL
AWAY FROM ROADS AND POPULATED PLACES. LATE SUMMER MOUNTAIN SNOWS
ARE NICE...UNLESS YOU ARE HUNTING OR HIKING. USE CAUTION.
LONG RANGE STARTS OUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF. THIS QUICKLY
DIES DOWN AS MOISTURE MOVE EAST AND MAIN DYNAMIC ROTATE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...DRYING AND SLOW WARMING TREND. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY IN THE BEGINNING AND THEN ALSO DIMINISH.
&&
.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WILL STAY VFR DURING THE DAY
WITH -SHRA AND TS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH CHANCES AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS S-SW TODAY ESPECIALLY AT KELY AND KTPH WHERE
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS A GOOD BET. STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS IN SPOTS. AIRFIELDS MAY GET STANDING WATER AT TIMES.
CONVECTION LASTS OVERNIGHT BUT DIMINISHES BEFORE FIRING UP AGAIN
TUESDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO IMPACT THE SILVER
STATE. EXPECT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO MARRY UP WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA. MULTIPLE SWA`S
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY. EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO LINGER...WHICH WILL FUEL TSRA
THE NEXT 60 HRS...RESULTING IN ENAHANCED LALS.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.
&&
$$
97/98/98/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
707 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
COLD FRONT JUST WEST OF MINOT-BISMARCK AT 00Z. HIGH CLOUDS OVER
ERN ND/NW MN BUT DRY. NO PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT AND NONE EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THERE IS A JET STREAK MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST WITH SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS WHICH SHOULD MOVE INTO
PARTS OF ERN ND/NW MN LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED MORNING. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POP FOR THIS. INSTABILITY LACKING SO KEPT RW- AND NOT
TRW-.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WV LOOP SHOWS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND A WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH. THE WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES AND IS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THINK THE WARM FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE RAP
AND HRRR HAVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MOSTLY IN SOUTHERN CANADA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE...GIVEN THAT ALTHOUGH THERE IS PLENTY OF
WARMTH AND MOISTURE IN OUR CWA ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...THERE IS
ALSO SOME VERY WARM 700MB TEMPS THAT ARE KEEPING US CAPPED.
SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CWA EARLIER TODAY HAVE
DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF TO THE NORTH...SO WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING...BUT SOME PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AS THE SFC TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE CWA. MODELS ALL HAVE PRECIP FAIRLY SPOTTY AND
WEAK...SO KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON DECK OVER MT/WY. THE SFC TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND BEGIN TO WASH OUT AS A STRONGER LOW
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ND. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 70S TO THE
NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND NEAR 80 IN THE SOUTH. THE GFS HAS THE
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES DESTABILIZING BY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS STILL AROUND 30KTS OR SO.
THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY EVENING
AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE COMES OUT AND THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS THE
SFC TROUGH MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS ALL HAVE
THE LOW ON DIFFERENT TRACKS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH AGREEMENT TO GO
WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS IN THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES WITH
SOME FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. THE FIRST WILL HELP
PUSH THE SFC TROUGH THROUGH THE CWA AND BRINGING PRECIP AND A COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA. CONTINUED TO KEEP POPS IN THE HIGH CHANCE
RANGE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN CWA AS THEY SEEM TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER WAVE. AFTER A BREAK IN PRECIP ON
THURSDAY NIGHT THERE MAY BE A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA ON FRIDAY AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE COMES OUT ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 60S AND 70S ON THURSDAY BUT WITH
SOME PRETTY GOOD COLD AIR ADVECTION AND CLOUDS READINGS WILL BE IN
THE 60S FOR FRIDAY.
FOR SAT THROUGH TUE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM ABOVE NORMAL AND
REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERAL ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED
WITH WARMING MID LEVEL TEMPS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERS BY NEXT TUE...BUT OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY AND WARM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
VFR THRU THE PD. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE RRV 06Z-10Z
PERIOD AND THEN EASTWARD THRU NW MN 10Z-14Z PERIOD. A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND IT. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE ONLY WITH IT. DID KEEP VCSH IN ALL BUT DVL AS PREV FCST
DUE TO SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATING SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY JUST BEHIND THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WED
MORNING.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS RRV AND EAST. WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST ALG AND WEST OF AN
HCO-GAF-JMS LINE. EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL HELP PUSH
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CWA. A FAIRLY DECENT COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY. HOWEVER...THINK THAT A FEW MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND
HRRR KEEP THE FOG OUT AND THINK THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.
BY TOMORROW...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...A SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND PICK UP...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS BREAKS OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
AND WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING THE SFC
TROUGH INTO THE CWA. SOME PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR AND TEMPS WILL GET
INTO THE 80S AGAIN. THE NAM HAS A FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH SOME 20-30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY TO COME BACK UP WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST. HAVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN INITIAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW LOOK
TO EJECT OUT ON WED NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN. MOST
MODELS SHOW THU AFTERNOON DRY ON THE ND SIDE...BUT GUIDANCE IS
HANGING ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE
FA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT THIS POINT GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN WHILE THE ECMWF IS...SO AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES. THEREAFTER FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU/FRI WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN THEN WARM UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE BY 06Z...THROUGH AN
FGN-FSE-FAR LINE BY 09Z... AND THROUGH AN INL-BJI-FFM LINE BY
AROUND 12Z.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GUST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
310 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINAL SPOKE OF VORTICITY /MVG SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/ WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATO CU CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. 04Z HRRR DOESN/T PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS WEAK VORT MAX AND EAST/WEST
SFC TROUGH.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND MINS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE
L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW TO WEST AT 4-7KTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRATO CLOUDS DEPART TO THE
NE. IT/LL STILL BE COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H
TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR NORTHERN NEW
ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS ARND 20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL WAVES DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEADILY AMPLIFY A
DOWNSTREAM...EASTERN U.S. RIDGE THAT WILL BRING A 4-5 DAY STRING
OF SPLENDID LATE SUMMER WEATHER.
AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE
MUCH GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE BFD
AND IPT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERHAPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY EXPELLING THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR CLOUDS ARE
CROSSING NE OH AND WRN PA AND WILL MAKE IT INTO JST. THE FLOW
WILL ALSO TEND TO FAVOR GENERATION OF SIMILAR CLOUDS IN THE
ALLEGHENIES...SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A FEW IN BFD FOR THE DAY.
MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IS ALMOST A GIVEN WITH THE COLD
TEMPS...SO HAVE GIVEN IPT THE REGULAR TREATMENT OF LIFR CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG IN THE MORNING. BUT PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD HELP BURN/LIFT
IT QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND LITTLE/NO RAIN ON SUNDAY
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT THEN
CREATES A FULL WEEK OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS.
OUTLOOK...
MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
239 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FINAL SPOKE OF VORTICITY /MVG SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/ WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATO CU CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. 04Z HRRR DOESN/T PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS WEAK VORT MAX AND EAST/WEST
SFC TROUGH.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND MINS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE
L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW TO WEST AT 4-7KTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRATO CLOUDS DEPART TO THE
NE. IT/LL STILL BE COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H
TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR NORTHERN NEW
ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS ARND 20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL WAVES DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEADILY AMPLIFY A
DOWNSTREAM...EASTERN U.S. RIDGE THAT WILL BRING A 4-5 DAY STRING
OF SPLENDID LATE SUMMER WEATHER.
AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE
MUCH GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE BFD
AND IPT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERHAPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS
WILL BRING REDUCED CIGS AND PSBLY VSBYS TO BRADFORD THROUGH 04Z.
ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING
SUNRISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
157 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINAL SPOKE OF VORTICITY /MVG SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/ WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATO CU CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. 04Z HRRR DOESN/T PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS WEAK VORT MAX AND EAST/WEST
SFC TROUGH.
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND MINS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE
L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW TO WEST AT 4-7KTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRATO CLOUDS DEPART TO THE
NE. IT/LL STILL BE COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H
TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR NORTHERN NEW
ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS ARND 20 MPH.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PORTION OF THE FCST. DID UP MAX
TEMPS SOME. ALSO DID EDGE POPS DOWN SOME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP UPPER LVL LOW THAT BROUGHT A WIDE RANGE OF AVIATION CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WAS ADVECTED DOWN THE TN VLY
TO THE SE COAST THIS MORNING.
AS RIDGE BUILDS SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE
BFD AND IPT.
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.
GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERAHPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS
WILL BRING REDUCED CIGS AND PSBLY VSBYS TO BRADFORD THROUGH 04Z.
ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING
SUNRISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER
FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1103 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. RAISED HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES INTO THIS RANGE.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE GUSTS WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE RAMPING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AS WELL ON TUESDAY.
MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MADISON AND WAUKESHA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS.
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY SEE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECT MADISON LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FOR ALL NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. STILL EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING TO RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS ON THE LAND...AFFECTING THE LAKESHORE AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
RECENT TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWS PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 28KTS ABOUT 1400FT OFF THE GROUND. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DUE TO THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS LOWER FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE.
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY SO ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EACH DAY.
MBK
&&
.BEACHES...
GUST SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY. WAVES
AT THE SHORE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG SHEBOYGAN COUNTY DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE COUNTY. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CAUSE A HIGH SWIM RISK TODAY...WITH A MODERATE SWIM
RISK FARTHER SOUTH.
MBK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PUSHES EAST
WITH A WEAK WEEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM WYOMING TO WISCONSIN LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND
PREFER THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION. THE HRRR
DOES PUSH SOME RADAR RETURNS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT THERE. THIS SEEMS TO
MATCH THE GFS SOUNDINGS OF AN ACCAS POTENTIAL...BUT WITH TOO MUCH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RATHER LOW EXCEPT SOME SLIGHT INCREASE AROUND
700 MB LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT SATURATED. AT 850 MB RH
INCREASES...BUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE AT
MADISON AT 09Z ABOVE 700 MB.
SOME ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
850 MB MOISTURE...BUT THIS MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS ID
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG THE SHORELINE
AREAS WITH A SOUTH WIND.
LONG TERM...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING/MIXING EACH DAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
AND THUS THE GUST SPEEDS.
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP... SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET.
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LOW
LEVEL JET... BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SPREAD INTO THE MKX AREA
LATER IN THE DAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS WI FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/7 AM SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW
AREAS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL BORDERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH LATEST NAM 925 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT JUST
ENOUGH SURFACE WIND SO WIND SHEAR DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING 23-25
KT WIND GUSTS.
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MARINE...
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 9PM THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE
TO START/END TIMES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
A LITTLE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
TUESDAY.
BEACHES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES. OTHER THAN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD HAVE A
HIGH RISK...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN
CHECK TO BRING ONLY A MODERATE SWIM RISK TO THE BEACHES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
313 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PUSHES EAST
WITH A WEAK WEEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM WYOMING TO WISCONSIN LATER
TODAY. A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND
PREFER THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION. THE HRRR
DOES PUSH SOME RADAR RETURNS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT THERE. THIS SEEMS TO
MATCH THE GFS SOUNDINGS OF AN ACCAS POTENTIAL...BUT WITH TOO MUCH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RATHER LOW EXCEPT SOME SLIGHT INCREASE AROUND
700 MB LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT SATURATED. AT 850 MB RH
INCREASES...BUT IS NOT VERY HIGH. GFS SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE AT
MADISON AT 09Z ABOVE 700 MB.
SOME ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
850 MB MOISTURE...BUT THIS MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS ID
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG THE SHORELINE
AREAS WITH A SOUTH WIND.
.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING/MIXING EACH DAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
AND THUS THE GUST SPEEDS.
PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP... SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET.
SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LOW
LEVEL JET... BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SPREAD INTO THE MKX AREA
LATER IN THE DAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME.
ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS WI FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/7 AM SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
SOME PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW
AREAS. OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL BORDERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH LATEST NAM 925 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT JUST
ENOUGH SURFACE WIND SO WIND SHEAR DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING 23-25
KT WIND GUSTS.
MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 9PM THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE
TO START/END TIMES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
A LITTLE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
TUESDAY.
&&
.BEACHES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES. OTHER THAN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD HAVE A
HIGH RISK...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN
CHECK TO BRING ONLY A MODERATE SWIM RISK TO THE BEACHES.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR WIZ052.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LMZ643.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
338 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
A mid level trough moving across west central Kansas along with the
southerly low level jet were helping to maintain elevated showers
and thunderstorms across central Kansas north into central Nebraska
at 08Z. Isentropic lift on the 315K surface will also help maintain
the elevated convection, similar to yesterday through the morning
hours. Short range hi resolution models keep the convection going
this morning across north central and northeast Kansas before
diminishing by mid day. The HRRR was the most aggressive with the
precipitation and have cut back a bit as the low level jet weakens
this morning and the trough moves out. Tight pressure gradient
continues across Kansas this morning and will continue through the
day. Forecast soundings show mixing down from 850 mb this afternoon
and could see some wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph with sustained winds
of 20 to 25 mph. Highs today should range from the lower 90s in
north central Kansas to the upper 80s across northeast and east
central Kansas. Tonight winds will remain breezy with the mixed
boundary layer. The southerly winds and some increase in cloud cover
will keep low temperatures mild, generally in the lower to middle
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
By Thursday morning, southwesterly flow aloft will be in place as a
mid-level trough builds in across the northwestern and north central
U.S. Models show two embedded shortwave troughs within this broad
mid-level trough, with the first progressing across the Northern
Plains toward the northern Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night.
This shortwave will help to push the area of surface low pressure
currently stretched across the High Plains eastward toward the area,
with the associated cold front likely advancing into far north
central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. This front should slowly shift
southeastward across the CWA through the afternoon and evening
hours, becoming stalled out over the area. However, it is worth
noting the the 00z GFS seems a bit faster with the advancement of
the cold front across the CWA, and thus shows the front becoming
stalled out a bit further south than other models. With much of the
CWA remaining in the warm sector through the afternoon with
southwesterly winds remaining breezy with gusts of 25-30mph, expect
high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s once again.
A decent cap should be in place through much of the afternoon hours,
but expect it to slowly erode away by late afternoon or early
evening. A few models are trying to show some very light
precipitation in the morning from some isentropic lift, however feel
that there is too much dry air in the low-levels so have kept a dry
forecast for the morning hours at this time. With a diminishing
cap, increasing lift and convergence near the boundary, CAPE values
upwards of 2000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-35 kts,
conditions will be conducive for thunderstorm development by late
afternoon or early evening and persist through the overnight hours
into Friday as the boundary stalls out over the area. A few of
these storms could be strong to severe with the primary concerns
being damaging winds and possibly some large hail. Ongoing storms
will become more elevated by the overnight hours. With the
increasing low-level jet likely becoming nearly parallel to the
stalled boundary, could potentially see training thunderstorms and
even some locally heavy rain and localized flooding as PWAT values
reach upwards of 1.6-1.8 inches. By Friday, the boundary is
expected to shift a bit further north across the CWA and should
finally progress eastward out of the area Friday night as the second
embedded shortwave moves into the area, helping to push the stalled
system eastward. However, there will still be abundant moisture,
good instability, and actually better 0-6km bulk shear Friday
afternoon/evening with the cap potentially eroding away by mid to
late afternoon. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible again on Friday, however this potential will be very
dependent upon how quickly the system ends up exiting the area. The
uncertainties in the exact timing of this system progressing
eastward also impacts the temperature forecast for Friday as there
may be a decent gradient with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to upper 80s from northwest to southeast.
By Saturday, surface high pressure advances into the central U.S.
behind the exiting system, with northerly winds ushering cooler air
into the region. As a result, expect weekend highs in the mid 70s
and lows in the 50s. While another mid-level trough should slide
over the area Sunday into Monday, feel that the better moisture will
stay south of the CWA so have a dry forecast through the weekend.
The region should remain under the influence of high pressure
through early next week, keeping conditions dry. With surface low
pressure building into the High Plains, should see winds shift more
toward the south, which should help to boost high temperatures back
into the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
VFR conditions expected through the period. LLWS overnight
expected at all terminals as winds aloft increase to at or greater
than 40kts. Surface gusts return tomorrow morning.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...67
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WRN TROF/ERN RDG
PATTERN...WITH DEEP SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES IN THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES ADVECTING UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR INTO THE UPR GREAT LKS. 12Z
H85 TEMPS WERE 18C AT APX/GRB AND 19C AT MPX. DESPITE STEEP MID LVL
LAPSE RATES AND SOME MODEST H85 THETA E ADVECTION THAT SUPPORTED
SOME SCT SHOWERS/TS OVER NE WI EARLIER THIS MRNG...ABSENCE OF
DYNAMIC FORCING WITH LLVL ACYC FLOW AND VERY SHARP CAPPING/DRY MID
LYR DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX RAOB THAT ARE OVERSPREADING THE AREA
HAVE MAINTAINED DRY WX OVER UPR MI. SFC TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE
80S AT MANY PLACES AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION DESPITE SOME PATCHY HI
CLDS.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TEMPS/WINDS AND SLIM
PCPN CHCS.
TNGT...STRONG SW FLOW...WITH SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT INCRSG H925
WINDS UP TO 40-45 KTS...IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE AREA. NOCTURNAL
COOLING/INVRN WL LIMIT THE SFC WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THESE STRONG
WINDS WL INITIALLY TAP AN AREA OF DRIER LLVL AIR NOW OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LKS...MODELS SHOW THE H85 FLOW VEERING A BIT OVERNGT AND
ADVECTING HIER H85-7 THETA E INTO MAINLY THE NW HALF OF UPR MI
OVERNGT. A NUMBER OF THE MODELS GENERATE SOME PCPN IN THIS AREA
LATE. BUT CONSIDERING THE STRONG CAPPING DEPICTED ON THE 12Z MPX
RAOB...THE ABSENCE OF ANY OTHER SGNFT DYNAMIC FORCING/HGT FALLS AND
RELATIVELY DRY SFC-H7 LYR SHOWN ON THE 12Z NAM FCST SDNGS...OPTED TO
FOLLOW THE DRIER GUIDANCE AND MAINTAIN GOING DRY FCST. THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND INCRSG MID/HI CLDS ACCOMPANYING THE
MSTR RETURN WL RESULT IN A VERY WARM OVERNGT...ESPECIALLY IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUP OVER THE NW HALF...WHERE FCST WL TEND
TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE.
WED...MAINTAINED SOME SCHC POPS OVER THE FAR NW CWA...WHERE SHRTWV
FCST TO LIFT NE THRU FAR NW ONTARIO MAY BE CLOSE ENUF TO AXIS OF
HIER H85-7 THETA E TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/TS. THE REST OF THE CWA
WL REMAIN DRY. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL CAUSE THE STRONG LLVL WINDS
TO MIX TO THE SFC...WITH GUSTS AS HI AS 30 TO 35 MPH AT THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS. WITH H85 TEMPS FCST AS HI AS 20-22C...EXPECT MAX
TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 80S AWAY FM THE COOLING INFLUENCE OF LK
MI. TENDED TOWARD THE HI END OF GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL START A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORMAL TO BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...BEFORE TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO PAINT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN U.P. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
UNDER THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION...STEEP 750-400MB
LAPSE RATES AND OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. MOISTURE LOOKS TO
BE THE MAIN LIMIT AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS ANY LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE WILL
BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS. THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIKELY
LIMIT THE WEAKER SHOWERS FROM REACHING THE GROUND. CLOUDS AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS ON THURSDAY...BUT
STILL EXPECT THEM TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE 70S WITH A FEW
LOWER 80S IN THE FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FOR THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...NOT A WHOLE LOT HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS AND THE
GOING FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. ONLY MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE TIMING OF THE
POPS AND EXPECT CAPPING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
CONFINE MUCH OF THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE WESTERN CWA AND FEEL
THE MARGINAL RISK IN THE DAY 3 SPC OUTLOOK IS FAIRLY REASONABLE.
THE FRONT WILL QUICKLY DEPART EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE TRENDED
THE DEPARTURE OF THE PRECIPITATION A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES IN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST (AND INCREASING
MID-HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON). HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RETURN TO
MORE NORMAL VALUES FOR MID SEPTEMBER (60S).
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE LIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE/LOWER MICHIGAN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL COMBINE WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO FOCUS
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA...BUT STILL EXPECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST HALF TO 2/3RDS OF THE
CWA TO SEE A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. CONTINUED TO TREND POPS UP IN THAT AREA AND
HAVE VALUES NEAR LIKELIES ALONG THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE FOR
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL
QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY...RAPIDLY ENDING THE RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY MORNING. A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE ON SATURDAY AND WITH THE BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS...THE LOWER 60S HIGHS WILL FEEL MUCH COOLER THAN THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. FORTUNATELY...INCREASING SUNSHINE DURING THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP OFFSET THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH THAT
WILL BUILD IN ON SATURDAY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO MONDAY NIGHT
AND LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS. THERE ARE HINTS OF A WEAK FRONT MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WITH MUCH OF THE FORCING STAYING
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WILL GO WITH SILENT 20 POPS FOR
THE WESTERN CWA FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
SOME ISOLD HIGH BASED SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVR THE WESTERN HALF OF
UPPER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL IMPACT
THE TAF SITES IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION ATTM.
A STRENGTHENING SSW WIND WL DOMINATE THIS FORECAST PERIOD BEWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND LOW PRES IN THE HIGH PLAINS.
THE SFC WIND GUSTS WILL BE STRONGEST AT THE MORE EXPOSED IWD AND SAW
LOCATIONS. ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS...THE PRES GRADIENT WL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE GUSTY
WINDS AT IWD THRGOUTH THE NIGHT.
AT THE MORE SHELTERED CMX SITE...LLWS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION BELOW THE AXIS OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE FORECAST
FOR SAW IS LESS CERTAIN AS THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS AS
WELL TONIGHT. BUT MAINTAINED FCST LLWS THERE TONIGHT AS THE NEAR SFC
STABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT MIXING.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LATER TONIGHT AND
WED MORNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF OF UPPER MI...LINGERING LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THE ENTIRE FCST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 349 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015
WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR MUCH OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO WED
AS THE UPPER LAKES WILL BE SITUATED BTWN A LO PRES TROF TO THE NW
AND HI PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT S WINDS TO INCREASE
TO AS HI AS 25-30 KTS TONIGHT INTO WED. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
THE HIGHEST OBS PLATFORMS WILL SEE GALE FORCE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH A BIT WED AFTERNOON/THU...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THU
NIGHT/FRI MORNING...RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT TO THE N AROUND 20 KT
FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. LIGHT WINDS WILL THEN DOMINATE ON SAT INTO SUN
AS TRAILING HI PRES MOVES BY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...TITUS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
341 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
Areas of showers and storms stretching from central Kansas through
northeast Nebraska early this morning will continue to translate
slowly eastward over the next several hours; however, at their
current speed and trajectory, precipitation will likely wane as the
LLJ weakens and the morning wears on before reaching the forecast
area. Scattered to broken stratus may linger even as precipitation
dissipates so have raised cloud cover for this morning across the
western half of the CWA, but clouds should then also dissipate as
boundary layer mixing builds during the late morning. Breezy
conditions are expected again this afternoon, which should mix down
high temperatures in the upper 80s nearly CWA-wide. Higher low-level
moisture will also advect in from the south southwest where dewpoints
are currently in upper 60s to lower 70s, and although mixing could
eliminate a few degrees from those readings by afternoon, the
afternoon will certainly feel a bit stickier than the last several
days as heat indices climb into the lower 90s. Both the RAP and HRRR
have been indicating a signal for convection across central MO for
this afternoon which could brush the southeastern corner of the CWA,
but feel that mixing has been overdone in the RAP and thus also the
HRRR this afternoon, possibly eliminating the cap erroneously. Have
raised PoPs to the upper-end of the silent range, but did not feel
slight chances were warranted given the biases of these model
solutions and a lack of continuity with other hires models.
Precipitation chances for tonight across central IA are starting to
look a bit lower, so have slightly lowered PoPs and shortened the
timeframe for possible convection in the northeastern quadrant of
the forecast area, where any IA storms that do develop would trek.
The thermal ridge strengthens directly over southern IA into the
northern CWA during the morning hours, likely ending any ongoing
precipitation shortly after sunrise.
This warm air aloft will be the primary complication for storm
chances on Thursday as convergence strengthens ahead of the well-
advertised cold front that will push through the forecast area late
Thursday through Friday. Shallow warm sector convection continues to
look probable Thursday afternoon with low-level moisture abound and
plenty of surface-based lift, but the potential for deep convective
initiation will be limited by capping even directly along the front
for much of the afternoon, and updrafts may have to wait until cooler
temperatures start to filter in aloft along an approaching shortwave
trough late Thursday evening. Several rounds of storms continue to
look likely along and immediately ahead of the slow-moving front
Thursday night through Friday, although the slightly delayed frontal
passage may allow for a bit of a break between rounds during the
daytime hours Friday. A few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible Thursday evening into the early afternoon due to high
instability supporting a few robust updrafts (and thus potentially
robust updraft collapses); and again Friday afternoon into the
early evening as the front clears through the region. Although cloud
cover throughout the day Friday may limit the strength of any
convection that redevelops along the front, increasing deep layer
shear will help any robust storms organize, possibly into a few
linear segments. Flooding also remains a concern with multiple rounds
of 2015-esque highly efficient rain, due to PWATs approaching
160-180% of normal.
The front will shift southeast and out of the region by late Friday
evening, leaving behind much quieter conditions and fall-like
temperatures for the weekend. Surface high pressure is faster to
build in, diminishing the longevity of strong cold air advection
during the daytime hours on Saturday; and height falls are not as
extreme behind this system when compared to the last, but highs in
the lower to mid 70s still look probable both Saturday and Sunday
before gradual warming begins once again. Due to uncertainties in the
long-term forecast, have opted to remove all slight chance PoPs for
next week until the litany of shortwave troughs in zonal to gradual
northwest flow become a bit more focused.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1152 PM CDT TUE SEP 15 2015
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Scattered to broken stratus may build in shortly after sunset, but
ceilings are expected to remain above 3 kft. This cloud deck will
scatter out by mid- to late-morning, to be replaced by high-based,
isolated cumulus during the afternoon. Winds will be breezy once
again, reaching sustained speeds of 15 to 18 kts and gusts greater
than 25 kts during the daylight hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
933 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS PLUME WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING CONFINED MAINLY TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY
AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE AREA WIDE THURSDAY
ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE STILL DRIFTING ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD GO
AWAY SOON. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS FOR TONIGHT
AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MANY AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES AS WINDS HAD DROPPED BELOW THE 40
MPH GUST CRITERIA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SLOPES LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR WAS MOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS THERE BUT THE ARW AND NMM MODELS STILL
SUPPORTED THIS.
THE BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE REFRESHING AIR THAT HAS ARRIVED.
TODAY REMINDED ME OF MY TIME IN FLORID WHEN YOU WALKED OUTSIDE
AFTER THE FIRST GOOD COLD FRONT OF THE FALL PUSHED THROUGH AFTER
SWELTERING ALL SUMMER (I AM SAYING THIS BECAUSE THIS COOL PUSH IS
NOT AS `DRY` FEELING AS OUT FIRST FALL COOL PUSH USUALLY IS AROUND
HERE). THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A NICE BREAK FOR EVERYONE AS WELL AS
FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE POSSIBLE ON
APPROACH TO THE TERMINAL. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AT
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE MID-20`S. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AT AREA TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 255 PM PDT TUE SEP 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING CONFINED TO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT ALL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BREAK
DOWN THE CURRENT TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
DRY AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPELL DRY
AND BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AMPLIFYING THE OVERALL FLOW AND
KEEPING WEAK TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO KICK THE TROUGH EASTWARD
MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE ONLY TRUE CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO OF
WEATHER WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE EARLY TO MID-NEXT
WEEK...AS MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 15N
108W MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA BRUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS...AS THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF EACH FEATURE WILL BE VITAL TO THE RESULTANT
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD MID-NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM FROM NEAR AVERAGE
ON FRIDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
833 PM PDT TUE SEP 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO THE REGION TODAY. THIS PLUME WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING CONFINED MAINLY TO
MOHAVE COUNTY TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH
A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN MOHAVE COUNTY
AND EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. DRY CONDITIONS ARRIVE AREA WIDE THURSDAY
ONWARD WITH TEMPERATURES CREEPING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.UPDATE...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED ACROSS THE AREA.
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WERE STILL DRIFTING ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY AND FAR SOUTHEAST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BUT THESE SHOULD GO
AWAY SOON. THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO TRIM BACK POPS FOR TONIGHT
AND DECREASE SKY COVER IN MANY AREAS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS.
THE WIND ADVISORY WAS CANCELLED EARLIER THIS EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
CLARK AND SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES AS WINDS HAD DROPPED BELOW THE 40
MPH GUST CRITERIA. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
WINDS WILL BE IN THE SPRING MOUNTAINS AND ESPECIALLY ON THE EASTERN
AND NORTHEASTERN SLOPES LATER TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR WAS MOT ALL
THAT IMPRESSIVE WITH WINDS THERE BUT THE ARW AND NMM MODELS STILL
SUPPORTED THIS.
THE BIG STORY TONIGHT WILL BE THE REFRESHING AIR THAT HAS ARRIVED.
TODAY REMINDED ME OF MY TIME IN FLORID WHEN YOU WALKED OUTSIDE
AFTER THE FIRST GOOD COLD FRONT OF THE FALL PUSHED THROUGH AFTER
SWELTERING ALL SUMMER (I AM SAYING THIS BECAUSE THIS COOL PUSH IS
NOT AS `DRY` FEELING AS OUT FIRST FALL COOL PUSH USUALLY IS AROUND
HERE). THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE A NICE BREAK FOR EVERYONE AS WELL AS
FOR THE AIR CONDITIONERS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...CIGS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. GUSTY WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE
VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS OF MECHANICAL TURBULENCE POSSIBLE ON
APPROACH TO THE TERMINAL. GUSTY WINDS WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY AT
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS INTO THE MID-20`S. WINDS SHOULD RETURN TO
TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS BY THURSDAY.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA. GUSTY RIDGETOP WINDS WILL CAUSE AREAS OF MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE ACROSS AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AT AREA TAF SITES
WEDNESDAY...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AREA WIDE BY THURSDAY.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 255 PM PDT TUE SEP 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL FILTER IN WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING CONFINED TO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND
LINCOLN COUNTY. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SCOUR OUT ALL RESIDUAL
MOISTURE BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT IT WILL STILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. SIMILAR HIGHS EXPECTED AGAIN ON
THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. (FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BEHIND A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL BREAK
DOWN THE CURRENT TROUGH WEST/RIDGE EAST REGIME ACROSS THE LOWER 48.
DRY AIR BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPELL DRY
AND BENIGN WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS
AND THEIR ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN AMPLIFYING THE OVERALL FLOW AND
KEEPING WEAK TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO KICK THE TROUGH EASTWARD
MONDAY...ALLOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. WHILE THE ONLY TRUE CHANGE IN THE STATUS QUO OF
WEATHER WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...IT
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER MOISTURE SURGE EARLY TO MID-NEXT
WEEK...AS MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 15N
108W MAY GET PULLED NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL BE
DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA BRUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD MID-WEEK.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH IN THE COMING DAYS...AS THE
EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF EACH FEATURE WILL BE VITAL TO THE RESULTANT
WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION TOWARD MID-NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURE-WISE...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS TO WARM FROM NEAR AVERAGE
ON FRIDAY TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MAKES A RETURN TO THE AREA.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
SHORT TERM...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1118 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME MOISTURE POTENTIALLY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND LOOKING AT THE UPPER AIR ANALYSES STILL SHOW
NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS. RELATIVELY
WARMER POCKET AT 925MB AND 850MB SURROUNDING THE NYC METRO
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, SO DID
SOME NEAR NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS. LITERALLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SEA/BAY BREEZE DEPICTED ON LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS, BUT OVERALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
550 AM: RAISING TEMPS 1F TO GET PHL SOMERVILLE MORRISTOWN TO
AROUND 88 THIS AFTN. 06Z GFS HAD A LARGE AREA OF 2M TEMPS AROUND
85 AT 18Z. 850 TEMPS 14-15C.
TODAY...THE REMAINING THIN CIRRUS NEAR 30000 FT SHOULD BE THE ONLY
CLOUDS WE SEE TODAY AND THE SUN SHOULD EASILY SHINE THROUGH. THIS
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE LESS CIRRUS THAN WHATEVER OCCURS THIS
MORNING. CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
BRIGHT AS YESTERDAY.
GFS HAS BEEN BEST AT DEPICTING THIS 200MB RH IN ITS TSECTION
PROFILES. PLAN VIEW OF THE 200MB RH IN THE GFS20 3HLY DATA SHOWS
THIS CLOUDINESS SEEMINGLY GENERATED BY A RRQ OF 50 KT 200MB SPEED
MAX MOVING SE OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING AND THE LF QUAD OF THE
DIXIE SHORT WAVE SPEED MAX THAT INTENSIFIES WITH TIME AS THAT
SPEED MAX MOVES NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CIRRUS SPREADS EWD INTO E PA NEAR 00Z/17 TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE WARMING AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THOUGH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL
BECOME COMMON. USED THE WARMER 00Z/16 GFS MOS GUIDANCE AS THE
PRIMARY TEMP GUIDANCE, OTRW A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 GFS/NAM
FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
RECENT USE OF GUIDANCE ON MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS HAS SHOWN MAX`S TO
VERIFY 18Z 2M TEMPS +5 FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM AND PLUS 3F FOR
THE SEEMINGLY RECENTLY IMPROVED 18Z 2M TEMP FCSTS OF THE GFS. GFS
2M TEMP FCST FOR PHL IS ABOUT 85... NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW
89, 90F READINGS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN FROM KPHL NNEWD
TO NEAR KMMU. NAM BL TEMP MAX`S OUT AT 26C NEAR 21Z.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
CALM AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ANY LEFTOVER 200MB CIRRUS EDGING
SEWD ..THE BACK EDGE ACROSS S DE AND CAPE MAY NJ AT 12Z THU.
GENERALLY EXCELLENT RADIATING CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 04Z IN SOME OF THE COUNTRYSIDE. USED THE LESS PROLIFIC
GENERATING UPS CROSSOVER TOOL TONIGHT AND BASICALLY THE SAME AREA
AS WE HAD IT POSTED THIS MORNING.
ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG IN SE NJ LATE TONIGHT BUT FOR
NOW FAVORED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PREDICTOR IN THIS DRY AND WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/16 NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PD AND EXPECT OUR BRILLIANT STRETCH OF WX TO CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THU, BEFORE
MOVG EWD ON FRI AND SAT. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP US DRY, WITH PLEASANT
TEMPS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
LOW PRES IN HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALG THE ATTENDANT CDFNT NR THE GRTLKS ON
SAT. HOWEVER, THIS LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD AND THE
LATEST DATA INDICATES BY THE TIME THE CDFNT REACHES OUR REGION ON
SUN, IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT. SO THE NEXT CHC OF ANY
RAIN WILL BE LATER ON SUN, AND IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A CHC AT ALL.
BEHIND THE CFP, HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR N FOR MON, KEEPING
MONDAY DRY, BUT HERE IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE
INTERESTING.
ALL OF THE GUID WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF LOW OFF THE SERN
CONUS CST AND BRING THE MOISTURE NWD ON TUE. THE GFS IS FURTHER S
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE LIGHTER AND
MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER N WITH THE HIGH (CENTERED
IN QUEBEC) AND BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER N AND IS HEAVIER WITH
IT.
AT THIS STAGE NOT SURE WHICH ONE WILL BE CORRECT, OR IF THE TRUTH
WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, AND THIS IS A FAIRLY LARGE
CHANGE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. HOWEVER, A
WETTER SIGNAL IS THERE, SO HAVE AT LEAST ADDED SOME LOW POPS.
ALSO, DUE TO THE POSN OF THE HIGH, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED NELY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY
REGARDLESS OF PRECIP OR NOT, SO IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK AS NICE
AS THIS WEEK.
TEMPS WILL START OFF ABV NRML, WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING
THU AND THEN DECREASE EACH DAY WITH MON AND TUE BEING COOLEST IN
THE CLOUDS AND NELY FLOW BEHIND THE CDFNT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
AFTER 12Z TODAY...VFR WITH THIN CIRRUS NEAR 30000 FT DISSIPATING
EWD THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT LINGERING KPHL SEWD. LIGHT WEST WIND
THIS MORNING WITH SEA AND BAY BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AT KACY/KILG
AND POSSIBLY KMIV.
TONIGHT...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM WIND. PATCHY IFR FOG IN SOME
OF THE E PA AND NJ COUNTRYSIDE...MAINLY I-78 NORTH. THIN CIRRUS
MAY HANG MUCH OF THE NIGHT VCNTY KMIV.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG PSBL FRI
AND SAT AM, ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS, OUT
OF THE S OR SW. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CHC
SHRA WITH A WEAK CFP. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR
OUR AREA WATERS. VERY VERY QUIET ON OUR NJ AND DE WATERS WITH SEAS
AT OR BELOW 2 FEET. LIGHT WEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WINDS
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE SEA BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KT.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ABOVE NORMAL DEPARTURES
WITH ONLY MINOR UPWELLING-COOLING VCNTY THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY TO
THE CENTRAL NJ COAST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU SUN. WIND
WILL BE OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRI GENLY 10 KTS OR
LESS, INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON SAT. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WIND CUD
GUST TO 20 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. BEHIND THE
CFP, THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY.. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1 TO 2 FEET THU AND FRI, INCREASING TO AROUND 3 FEET BY SUN.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW RISK MUCH OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THIS
WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ITS ALSO A VERY GOOD WORKWEEK TO
BE AT THE BEACH WITH PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
SMALL WAVES. WATER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
70S THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER FROM THE
ENTRANCE OF DE BAY NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL NJ COAST.
LOW CLOUDS MAY VISIT COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY MORNING TAKING A
LITTLE SHINE OFF THE DAY THERE.
A LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DOES NOT
MEAN NO RISK. PLEASE SWIM SAFELY. IF IN DOUBT DONT GO OUT. AVOID
SWIMMING NEAR JETTIES/PIERS AND GROINS.
00Z/16 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES (00Z/16 GEFS AND ECEFS)
SUGGEST NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND...MORE CLOUD
COVER, LARGER SURF AND A CONSEQUENT MODERATE OR GREATER RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND AT THIS TIME WE THINK MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK MIGHT BE FIRST DAYS OF MDT. SO THAT
WOULD MAKE THIS WEEK A MUCH SAFER AND BETTER WEEK TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE BEACH AS OPPOSED TO DELAYING TO NEXT WEEK. WE`RE QUITE SURE
THIS IS GOOD WEEK TO BE AT THE SHORE, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
623 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
A mid level trough moving across west central Kansas along with the
southerly low level jet were helping to maintain elevated showers
and thunderstorms across central Kansas north into central Nebraska
at 08Z. Isentropic lift on the 315K surface will also help maintain
the elevated convection, similar to yesterday through the morning
hours. Short range hi resolution models keep the convection going
this morning across north central and northeast Kansas before
diminishing by mid day. The HRRR was the most aggressive with the
precipitation and have cut back a bit as the low level jet weakens
this morning and the trough moves out. Tight pressure gradient
continues across Kansas this morning and will continue through the
day. Forecast soundings show mixing down from 850 mb this afternoon
and could see some wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph with sustained winds
of 20 to 25 mph. Highs today should range from the lower 90s in
north central Kansas to the upper 80s across northeast and east
central Kansas. Tonight winds will remain breezy with the mixed
boundary layer. The southerly winds and some increase in cloud cover
will keep low temperatures mild, generally in the lower to middle
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
By Thursday morning, southwesterly flow aloft will be in place as a
mid-level trough builds in across the northwestern and north central
U.S. Models show two embedded shortwave troughs within this broad
mid-level trough, with the first progressing across the Northern
Plains toward the northern Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night.
This shortwave will help to push the area of surface low pressure
currently stretched across the High Plains eastward toward the area,
with the associated cold front likely advancing into far north
central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. This front should slowly shift
southeastward across the CWA through the afternoon and evening
hours, becoming stalled out over the area. However, it is worth
noting the the 00z GFS seems a bit faster with the advancement of
the cold front across the CWA, and thus shows the front becoming
stalled out a bit further south than other models. With much of the
CWA remaining in the warm sector through the afternoon with
southwesterly winds remaining breezy with gusts of 25-30mph, expect
high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s once again.
A decent cap should be in place through much of the afternoon hours,
but expect it to slowly erode away by late afternoon or early
evening. A few models are trying to show some very light
precipitation in the morning from some isentropic lift, however feel
that there is too much dry air in the low-levels so have kept a dry
forecast for the morning hours at this time. With a diminishing
cap, increasing lift and convergence near the boundary, CAPE values
upwards of 2000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-35 kts,
conditions will be conducive for thunderstorm development by late
afternoon or early evening and persist through the overnight hours
into Friday as the boundary stalls out over the area. A few of
these storms could be strong to severe with the primary concerns
being damaging winds and possibly some large hail. Ongoing storms
will become more elevated by the overnight hours. With the
increasing low-level jet likely becoming nearly parallel to the
stalled boundary, could potentially see training thunderstorms and
even some locally heavy rain and localized flooding as PWAT values
reach upwards of 1.6-1.8 inches. By Friday, the boundary is
expected to shift a bit further north across the CWA and should
finally progress eastward out of the area Friday night as the second
embedded shortwave moves into the area, helping to push the stalled
system eastward. However, there will still be abundant moisture,
good instability, and actually better 0-6km bulk shear Friday
afternoon/evening with the cap potentially eroding away by mid to
late afternoon. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible again on Friday, however this potential will be very
dependent upon how quickly the system ends up exiting the area. The
uncertainties in the exact timing of this system progressing
eastward also impacts the temperature forecast for Friday as there
may be a decent gradient with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to upper 80s from northwest to southeast.
By Saturday, surface high pressure advances into the central U.S.
behind the exiting system, with northerly winds ushering cooler air
into the region. As a result, expect weekend highs in the mid 70s
and lows in the 50s. While another mid-level trough should slide
over the area Sunday into Monday, feel that the better moisture will
stay south of the CWA so have a dry forecast through the weekend.
The region should remain under the influence of high pressure
through early next week, keeping conditions dry. With surface low
pressure building into the High Plains, should see winds shift more
toward the south, which should help to boost high temperatures back
into the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Thursday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. Low
level wind shear will continue through 14Z when surface winds
increase. South winds around 16kts are expected with gusts to near
30 kts in the afternoon. After 01Z wind gusts should subside, but
winds will remain around 15 kts. Convection west of MHK is
expected to dissipate by 17Z and should remain out of the MHK
terminal area.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...53
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
705 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
Areas of showers and storms stretching from central Kansas through
northeast Nebraska early this morning will continue to translate
slowly eastward over the next several hours; however, at their
current speed and trajectory, precipitation will likely wane as the
LLJ weakens and the morning wears on before reaching the forecast
area. Scattered to broken stratus may linger even as precipitation
dissipates so have raised cloud cover for this morning across the
western half of the CWA, but clouds should then also dissipate as
boundary layer mixing builds during the late morning. Breezy
conditions are expected again this afternoon, which should mix down
high temperatures in the upper 80s nearly CWA-wide. Higher low-level
moisture will also advect in from the south southwest where dewpoints
are currently in upper 60s to lower 70s, and although mixing could
eliminate a few degrees from those readings by afternoon, the
afternoon will certainly feel a bit stickier than the last several
days as heat indices climb into the lower 90s. Both the RAP and HRRR
have been indicating a signal for convection across central MO for
this afternoon which could brush the southeastern corner of the CWA,
but feel that mixing has been overdone in the RAP and thus also the
HRRR this afternoon, possibly eliminating the cap erroneously. Have
raised PoPs to the upper-end of the silent range, but did not feel
slight chances were warranted given the biases of these model
solutions and a lack of continuity with other hires models.
Precipitation chances for tonight across central IA are starting to
look a bit lower, so have slightly lowered PoPs and shortened the
timeframe for possible convection in the northeastern quadrant of
the forecast area, where any IA storms that do develop would trek.
The thermal ridge strengthens directly over southern IA into the
northern CWA during the morning hours, likely ending any ongoing
precipitation shortly after sunrise.
This warm air aloft will be the primary complication for storm
chances on Thursday as convergence strengthens ahead of the well-
advertised cold front that will push through the forecast area late
Thursday through Friday. Shallow warm sector convection continues to
look probable Thursday afternoon with low-level moisture abound and
plenty of surface-based lift, but the potential for deep convective
initiation will be limited by capping even directly along the front
for much of the afternoon, and updrafts may have to wait until cooler
temperatures start to filter in aloft along an approaching shortwave
trough late Thursday evening. Several rounds of storms continue to
look likely along and immediately ahead of the slow-moving front
Thursday night through Friday, although the slightly delayed frontal
passage may allow for a bit of a break between rounds during the
daytime hours Friday. A few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible Thursday evening into the early afternoon due to high
instability supporting a few robust updrafts (and thus potentially
robust updraft collapses); and again Friday afternoon into the
early evening as the front clears through the region. Although cloud
cover throughout the day Friday may limit the strength of any
convection that redevelops along the front, increasing deep layer
shear will help any robust storms organize, possibly into a few
linear segments. Flooding also remains a concern with multiple rounds
of 2015-esque highly efficient rain, due to PWATs approaching
160-180% of normal.
The front will shift southeast and out of the region by late Friday
evening, leaving behind much quieter conditions and fall-like
temperatures for the weekend. Surface high pressure is faster to
build in, diminishing the longevity of strong cold air advection
during the daytime hours on Saturday; and height falls are not as
extreme behind this system when compared to the last, but highs in
the lower to mid 70s still look probable both Saturday and Sunday
before gradual warming begins once again. Due to uncertainties in the
long-term forecast, have opted to remove all slight chance PoPs for
next week until the litany of shortwave troughs in zonal to gradual
northwest flow become a bit more focused.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
VFR conditions are expected to persist through the forecast period.
Scattered to broken stratus may arrive within a few hours from the
west even as showers dissipate, but should remain above 3 kft. This
cloud deck will scatter out gradually during the late morning hours,
then some isolated to scattered cumulus may develop during the
afternoon, but will be high based. Winds will continue to increase
over the next few hours, gusting to 25 kts or greater during the
daylight hours.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Laflin
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS AREA SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FOR THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME MOISTURE POTENTIALLY MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH
ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
12Z SOUNDINGS AND LOOKING AT THE UPPER AIR ANALYSES STILL SHOW
NO BIG CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR MAX TEMPS. RELATIVELY
WARMER POCKET AT 925MB AND 850MB SURROUNDING THE NYC METRO
AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE, SO DID
SOME NEAR NEAR TERM ADJUSTMENTS. LITERALLY SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SEA/BAY BREEZE DEPICTED ON LAST COUPLE OF HRRR RUNS, BUT OVERALL
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM CURRENT FORECAST.
550 AM: RAISING TEMPS 1F TO GET PHL SOMERVILLE MORRISTOWN TO
AROUND 88 THIS AFTN. 06Z GFS HAD A LARGE AREA OF 2M TEMPS AROUND
85 AT 18Z. 850 TEMPS 14-15C.
TODAY...THE REMAINING THIN CIRRUS NEAR 30000 FT SHOULD BE THE ONLY
CLOUDS WE SEE TODAY AND THE SUN SHOULD EASILY SHINE THROUGH. THIS
AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE LESS CIRRUS THAN WHATEVER OCCURS THIS
MORNING. CALL IT MOSTLY SUNNY OR SUNNY BUT PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
BRIGHT AS YESTERDAY.
GFS HAS BEEN BEST AT DEPICTING THIS 200MB RH IN ITS TSECTION
PROFILES. PLAN VIEW OF THE 200MB RH IN THE GFS20 3HLY DATA SHOWS
THIS CLOUDINESS SEEMINGLY GENERATED BY A RRQ OF 50 KT 200MB SPEED
MAX MOVING SE OF CAPE COD THIS MORNING AND THE LF QUAD OF THE
DIXIE SHORT WAVE SPEED MAX THAT INTENSIFIES WITH TIME AS THAT
SPEED MAX MOVES NE THROUGH THE CAROLINAS TODAY. THE BACK EDGE OF
THE CIRRUS SPREADS EWD INTO E PA NEAR 00Z/17 TONIGHT.
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS ARE WARMING AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY WIND THOUGH AFTERNOON SEABREEZES WILL
BECOME COMMON. USED THE WARMER 00Z/16 GFS MOS GUIDANCE AS THE
PRIMARY TEMP GUIDANCE, OTRW A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/16 GFS/NAM
FOR ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.
RECENT USE OF GUIDANCE ON MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS HAS SHOWN MAX`S TO
VERIFY 18Z 2M TEMPS +5 FOR BOTH THE ECMWF AND NAM AND PLUS 3F FOR
THE SEEMINGLY RECENTLY IMPROVED 18Z 2M TEMP FCSTS OF THE GFS. GFS
2M TEMP FCST FOR PHL IS ABOUT 85... NOT IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A FEW
89, 90F READINGS IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR THIS AFTN FROM KPHL NNEWD
TO NEAR KMMU. NAM BL TEMP MAX`S OUT AT 26C NEAR 21Z.
MAX TEMPS GENERALLY ABOUT 10F ABOVE NORMAL.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
CALM AND CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH ANY LEFTOVER 200MB CIRRUS EDGING
SEWD ..THE BACK EDGE ACROSS S DE AND CAPE MAY NJ AT 12Z THU.
GENERALLY EXCELLENT RADIATING CONDITIONS. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE
AFTER 04Z IN SOME OF THE COUNTRYSIDE. USED THE LESS PROLIFIC
GENERATING UPS CROSSOVER TOOL TONIGHT AND BASICALLY THE SAME AREA
AS WE HAD IT POSTED THIS MORNING.
ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE SOME FOG IN SE NJ LATE TONIGHT BUT FOR
NOW FAVORED THE MORE CONSERVATIVE PREDICTOR IN THIS DRY AND WARM
BOUNDARY LAYER.
50 50 BLENDED 00Z/16 NAM/GFS MOS GUIDANCE.
NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPS.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED PD AND EXPECT OUR BRILLIANT STRETCH OF WX TO CONTINUE
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON THU, BEFORE
MOVG EWD ON FRI AND SAT. THIS HIGH WILL KEEP US DRY, WITH PLEASANT
TEMPS AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY.
LOW PRES IN HUDSON BAY WILL MOVE EWD AND AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRES IS EXPECTED TO FORM ALG THE ATTENDANT CDFNT NR THE GRTLKS ON
SAT. HOWEVER, THIS LOW IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD AND THE
LATEST DATA INDICATES BY THE TIME THE CDFNT REACHES OUR REGION ON
SUN, IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT. SO THE NEXT CHC OF ANY
RAIN WILL BE LATER ON SUN, AND IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A CHC AT ALL.
BEHIND THE CFP, HIGH PRES WILL BUILD TO OUR N FOR MON, KEEPING
MONDAY DRY, BUT HERE IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET A LITTLE
INTERESTING.
ALL OF THE GUID WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME SORT OF LOW OFF THE SERN
CONUS CST AND BRING THE MOISTURE NWD ON TUE. THE GFS IS FURTHER S
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH AND KEEPS THE MOISTURE LIGHTER AND
MAINLY OVER SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
ON THE OTHER HAND, THE ECMWF IS FURTHER N WITH THE HIGH (CENTERED
IN QUEBEC) AND BRINGS THE MOISTURE FURTHER N AND IS HEAVIER WITH
IT.
AT THIS STAGE NOT SURE WHICH ONE WILL BE CORRECT, OR IF THE TRUTH
WILL LIE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE, AND THIS IS A FAIRLY LARGE
CHANGE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE ECMWF. WOULD LIKE TO SEE SOME RUN-TO-
RUN CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FCST. HOWEVER, A
WETTER SIGNAL IS THERE, SO HAVE AT LEAST ADDED SOME LOW POPS.
ALSO, DUE TO THE POSN OF THE HIGH, THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED NELY FLOW WHICH WILL KEEP THINGS RATHER CLOUDY
REGARDLESS OF PRECIP OR NOT, SO IT CERTAINLY DOES NOT LOOK AS NICE
AS THIS WEEK.
TEMPS WILL START OFF ABV NRML, WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY BEING
THU AND THEN DECREASE EACH DAY WITH MON AND TUE BEING COOLEST IN
THE CLOUDS AND NELY FLOW BEHIND THE CDFNT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
18Z TAFS VFR EXCEPT FOR SOME MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR, CONDITIONS
DURING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AT MORE RURAL TERMINALS AND
AIRPORTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...VFR. SOME THIN CIRRUS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
MAINLY STEERED BY LOCAL EFFECTS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND LIKELY
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE DELAWARE RIVER EARLY THIS EVENING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT SHOULD STILL
BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.
THIS EVENING...CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
OVERNIGHT...CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG SHOULD FORM. WE USED THE
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING AS A BASIS FOR INCLUSION AND EXPANDED
DURATION BY AN HOUR OR TWO. SOME BRIEF IFR OR LOCAL IFR AT MORE
RURAL AIRPORTS POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME MORE CIRRUS. A SLIGHTLY STRONGER
SOUTHWEST (SOUTHEAST BEHIND SEA BREEZE FRONT) FLOW EXPECTED AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED. PATCHY FOG
PSBL FRI AND SAT AM, ESPECIALLY AT THE MORE RURAL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK, GENERALLY AT OR BELOW 10
KNOTS, OUT OF THE S OR SW. HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. MVFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CHC
SHRA WITH A WEAK CFP. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS. MDT TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS CONTINUING FOR
OUR AREA WATERS. VERY VERY QUIET ON OUR NJ AND DE WATERS WITH SEAS
AT OR BELOW 2 FEET. LIGHT WEST TO NORTH NORTHWEST OFFSHORE WINDS
IN THE OVERNIGHT AND MORNING HOURS WITH AFTERNOON SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST ONSHORE SEA BREEZES OF 10 TO 15 KT.
WATER TEMPERATURES ARE SHOWING SIGNIFICANT ABOVE NORMAL DEPARTURES
WITH ONLY MINOR UPWELLING-COOLING VCNTY THE ENTRANCE TO DE BAY TO
THE CENTRAL NJ COAST.
OUTLOOK...
THU THROUGH SUN...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED THRU SUN. WIND
WILL BE OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH FRI GENLY 10 KTS OR
LESS, INCREASING TO 15 KTS ON SAT. SAT NIGHT INTO SUN, WIND CUD
GUST TO 20 KTS OR SO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT. BEHIND THE
CFP, THE WIND WILL BECOME MORE WLY.. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
1 TO 2 FEET THU AND FRI, INCREASING TO AROUND 3 FEET BY SUN.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
STILL LOOKS LIKE LOW RISK MUCH OF, IF NOT ALL OF THE REST OF THIS
WEEK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND ITS ALSO A VERY GOOD WORKWEEK TO
BE AT THE BEACH WITH PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH FRIDAY AND GENERALLY
SMALL WAVES. WATER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
70S THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER FROM THE
ENTRANCE OF DE BAY NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL NJ COAST.
LOW CLOUDS MAY VISIT COASTAL SECTIONS SATURDAY MORNING TAKING A
LITTLE SHINE OFF THE DAY THERE.
A LOW RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DOES NOT
MEAN NO RISK. PLEASE SWIM SAFELY. IF IN DOUBT DONT GO OUT. AVOID
SWIMMING NEAR JETTIES/PIERS AND GROINS.
00Z/16 OPERATIONAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLES (00Z/16 GEFS AND ECEFS)
SUGGEST NEXT WEEK MAY SEE A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST WIND...MORE CLOUD
COVER, LARGER SURF AND A CONSEQUENT MODERATE OR GREATER RISK FOR
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION AND AT THIS TIME WE THINK MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK MIGHT BE FIRST DAYS OF MDT. SO THAT
WOULD MAKE THIS WEEK A MUCH SAFER AND BETTER WEEK TO TAKE ADVANTAGE
OF THE BEACH AS OPPOSED TO DELAYING TO NEXT WEEK. WE`RE QUITE SURE
THIS IS GOOD WEEK TO BE AT THE SHORE, ESPECIALLY PRIOR TO
SATURDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GIGI/NIERENBERG
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
...Update to aviation forecast discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
A mid level trough moving across west central Kansas along with the
southerly low level jet were helping to maintain elevated showers
and thunderstorms across central Kansas north into central Nebraska
at 08Z. Isentropic lift on the 315K surface will also help maintain
the elevated convection, similar to yesterday through the morning
hours. Short range hi resolution models keep the convection going
this morning across north central and northeast Kansas before
diminishing by mid day. The HRRR was the most aggressive with the
precipitation and have cut back a bit as the low level jet weakens
this morning and the trough moves out. Tight pressure gradient
continues across Kansas this morning and will continue through the
day. Forecast soundings show mixing down from 850 mb this afternoon
and could see some wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph with sustained winds
of 20 to 25 mph. Highs today should range from the lower 90s in
north central Kansas to the upper 80s across northeast and east
central Kansas. Tonight winds will remain breezy with the mixed
boundary layer. The southerly winds and some increase in cloud cover
will keep low temperatures mild, generally in the lower to middle
70s.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
By Thursday morning, southwesterly flow aloft will be in place as a
mid-level trough builds in across the northwestern and north central
U.S. Models show two embedded shortwave troughs within this broad
mid-level trough, with the first progressing across the Northern
Plains toward the northern Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night.
This shortwave will help to push the area of surface low pressure
currently stretched across the High Plains eastward toward the area,
with the associated cold front likely advancing into far north
central Kansas by Thursday afternoon. This front should slowly shift
southeastward across the CWA through the afternoon and evening
hours, becoming stalled out over the area. However, it is worth
noting the the 00z GFS seems a bit faster with the advancement of
the cold front across the CWA, and thus shows the front becoming
stalled out a bit further south than other models. With much of the
CWA remaining in the warm sector through the afternoon with
southwesterly winds remaining breezy with gusts of 25-30mph, expect
high temperatures to reach into the upper 80s to low 90s once again.
A decent cap should be in place through much of the afternoon hours,
but expect it to slowly erode away by late afternoon or early
evening. A few models are trying to show some very light
precipitation in the morning from some isentropic lift, however feel
that there is too much dry air in the low-levels so have kept a dry
forecast for the morning hours at this time. With a diminishing
cap, increasing lift and convergence near the boundary, CAPE values
upwards of 2000 J/kg, and 0-6 km bulk shear values of 30-35 kts,
conditions will be conducive for thunderstorm development by late
afternoon or early evening and persist through the overnight hours
into Friday as the boundary stalls out over the area. A few of
these storms could be strong to severe with the primary concerns
being damaging winds and possibly some large hail. Ongoing storms
will become more elevated by the overnight hours. With the
increasing low-level jet likely becoming nearly parallel to the
stalled boundary, could potentially see training thunderstorms and
even some locally heavy rain and localized flooding as PWAT values
reach upwards of 1.6-1.8 inches. By Friday, the boundary is
expected to shift a bit further north across the CWA and should
finally progress eastward out of the area Friday night as the second
embedded shortwave moves into the area, helping to push the stalled
system eastward. However, there will still be abundant moisture,
good instability, and actually better 0-6km bulk shear Friday
afternoon/evening with the cap potentially eroding away by mid to
late afternoon. As a result, strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible again on Friday, however this potential will be very
dependent upon how quickly the system ends up exiting the area. The
uncertainties in the exact timing of this system progressing
eastward also impacts the temperature forecast for Friday as there
may be a decent gradient with high temperatures ranging from the
upper 70s to upper 80s from northwest to southeast.
By Saturday, surface high pressure advances into the central U.S.
behind the exiting system, with northerly winds ushering cooler air
into the region. As a result, expect weekend highs in the mid 70s
and lows in the 50s. While another mid-level trough should slide
over the area Sunday into Monday, feel that the better moisture will
stay south of the CWA so have a dry forecast through the weekend.
The region should remain under the influence of high pressure
through early next week, keeping conditions dry. With surface low
pressure building into the High Plains, should see winds shift more
toward the south, which should help to boost high temperatures back
into the 80s for Tuesday and Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
For the 18z TAFs, generally expect VFR conditions over the next
24hrs. Winds stay strong out of the South and continue to gust
this afternoon before calming this evening. Still think that the
gradient will stay in place ahead of the lee trough, so expecting
to stay fairly well mixed tonight. Therefore, have opted to keep
mention of wind shear out of the TAFs at this time until better
consensus can be formed later today for the 12z time frame. At
this point, the best areas for wind shear will likely remain
northwest of the terminals. Thunderstorm chances remain to
low confidence to place into the TAFs. The current storms remain
to the west and northwest of the terminals over central KS and
into southeastern NE. These should slowly dissipate over the next
few hours. Cloud cover will likely be increasing by early morning
though and could end up seeing a bit lower stratus deck especially
near KMHK.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Drake
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
303 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
Isolated showers over south central Missouri have done a good job
of staying to the west of our region this afternoon. Cannot
completely rule out one slipping east into Ripley or Carter
counties, but will leave the forecast dry, as the HRRR and WRF
runs really struggle to move the activity tangibly east.
The ridge aloft will be suppressed a bit Thursday night, and this
may allow some convection to drift off of the cold front and
possibly down to the I-64 corridor. The 12Z NAM was rather
agressive in bringing convection into our forecast area, but most
other models keep any such activity well to the north. The 12Z WRF
runs were split with one wet and the other dry. Will keep a slight
chance very late Thursday night through Friday morning. If
anything does reach the area it is expected to dissipate or move
east by 18Z, so the entire area should be dry Friday afternoon.
The cold front is expected to move through the region late Friday
night and mostly Saturday morning. There is some variability in
the timing, with the 12Z NAM holding it up over our southeast
late Saturday afternoon. If this happens there could be some
significant instability to play with. However, it has litte
support from any other 12Z models. Have trended a bit faster/sooner
with the frontal passage, and kept only small chance PoPs in the
northwest Friday night, and through the entire area through the
day.
As for temperatures, tried to lean toward the warmer MAV/EC
guidance for highs, which could result in some areas reaching 90
by Friday afternoon. The cold front will knock temperatures back
to normal levels Saturday. Lows will trend warmer through the
period. Consensus of guidance has the lows well in line.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
Models continue to show an upper level trof moving across the middle
Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys Sunday into Sunday night. GFS
pretty much keeps us dry, and the latest ECMWF is trending toward
the GFS, and it now only generates very light QPF across our
southern half of counties. Continued with just slight chance pops
for showers across our far west counties in southeast Missouri on
Sunday, and our southern half of counties Sunday night and Monday.
After Monday, surface high pressure and upper level ridging will
keep us dry.
In the wake of the cold front, temperatures Saturday night will cool
down to near seasonal readings in the 50s, and Sunday through
Tuesday temperatures will be unseasonably cool as we remain in north
to northeast flow. By Wednesday we will moderate closer to seasonal
readings.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 1219 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
A nice cu field at 5-6kft has developed east of the Mississippi
River late this morning. Cannot rule out a period or two of a
ceiling condition, but will keep the forecasts scattered. The 12Z
guidance indicates that there will less cu development Thursday.
With surface high pressure to the east, south winds under 10kts
will be the rule this afternoon and again by mid-morning Thursday.
Most places will keep a light south/southeast wind for much of the
night, so fog does not seem very likely, even at KCGI.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
353 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS LED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THERE WAS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS LED TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. UNDER THE STEEP 700-300MB LAPSE RATES. THIS WAVE HAS
LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND BROUGHT MUCH OF THE MID CLOUDS WITH
IT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NEAR DULUTH. THE THICKER MID CLOUDS DID HOLD OFF TEMPS
AND WINDS SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT THAT WE ARE SEEING MORE BREAKS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS OF 3PM...NWS MARQUETTE IS JUST BELOW OUR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY (79) AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO BE BROKEN IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE CLOUDS DID HELP LIMIT MIXING FROM REACHING THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT HAVE STILL BEEN SEEING 15-25KT WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHERN JAMES BAY. THEN...ANOTHER
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING WHERE THERE ARE STEEP 750-400MB LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND
POCKETS OF MOISTURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
IOWA THAT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THOSE
FEATURES BRUSHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WHILE THE DRY AIR BELOW 700MB WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SOME AREAS...FEEL THE SUPPORT IS THERE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN TO OCCUR. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (TO
45KTS) 2-3KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL LOWS AND IN THE 60S WITH A FEW
70S OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS OUT WEST.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BELIEVE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT. BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIED TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. BEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS CONFINED TO THE AREAS IN IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA 20-25KT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE STRONGEST STORMS OCCURRING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRYING TO SHIFT EAST
INTO THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW...HAVE LIMITED THE TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER
80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE GUSTS IN THE 20-
25KT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE LONGER TERM WL BE FOCUSED ON POPS/SEVERE
WX POTENTIAL THU NGT ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FROPA THAT WL BRING A
RETURN OF COOLER WX LATE THIS WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE POPS LATE
FRI INTO SAT RELATED TO THE APRCH OF ANOTHER SHRTWV AND ITS
INTERACTION WITH STALLING FNT IN THE CENTRAL GREAT LKS. HI PRES AND
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPS WL THEN DOMINATE LATE THIS WEEKEND.
THU NGT INTO FRI...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SHOWING SFC COLD FNT CROSSING THE UPR LKS THU NGT PASSING NEWBERRY
SOON AFTER 12Z FRI AND INTERACTING WITH WARM AIRMASS/PWAT NEAR 1.75
INCHES. SINCE NAM/GFS SDNGS INDICATE THE PRE FRONTAL AIRMASS WL BE
CAPPED...THE BULK OF SHOWERS/TS THAT FORM UNDER H7-5 LAPSE RATES AS
STEEP AS 7.5-8C/KM ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSER TO THE SFC FNT. FCST
MUCAPES AS HI AS 1000-1500 J/KG...DEEP LYR SHEAR ABOUT 30-35KTS
ALONG THE FRONTAL BNDRY AND FCST DCAPES AS HI AS ABOUT 1000 J/KG
FOLLOWING THE WARM DAY ON THU SUPPORT THE MARGINAL/SLGT RISK FOR SVR
STORMS OUTLOOK FM SPC. RELATIVELY HI FRZG LVL FCST IN THE 12-14K
RANGE AND DEEP SATURATION SHOWN ON ESPECIALLY THE NAM FCST SDNGS AS
WELL AS PASSAGE OF STRONGER SHRTWV/HGT FALLS FARTHER TO THE N CLOSER
TO THE MAIN SHRTWV TRACK IN FAR NW ONTARIO ARE NEGATIVES. BEST CHC
FOR THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE OVER THE W...WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF
THE FNT IN THE EVNG WOULD BE MORE IN SYNC WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING
CYCLE/HIER DCAPES. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER/COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FROPA
WL BRING A DRYING TREND W-E LATER THU NGT INTO FRI...BUT SHALLOW
LLVL MSTR WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FNT/LO INVRN MAY LEAD
TO LINGERING LO CLDS INTO FRI MRNG...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS
NEAR LK SUP.
FRI/SAT...ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR/WEAK HI PRES RDG AND LLVL ACYC FLOW
WL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF DRY WX ON FRI AFTER LINGERING SHOWERS END
IN THE MRNG OVER THE E. BUT APRCH OF SHRTWV FM THE W IN MORE ZONAL
FLOW IN THE NRN PLAINS IS FCST TO CAUSE A SFC LO PRES TO DVLP ON FRI
AFTN IN IOWA ALONG STALLING COLD FNT STRETCHING FM THAT STATE INTO
LOWER MI UNDER MORE SW FLOW ALF ON NW FLANK OF UPR RDG PERSISTING IN
THE ERN CONUS. SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED A
BAND OF PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF MID LVL FGEN WOULD IMPACT AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA ON FRI AFTN WELL TO THE NE OF THIS
FEATURE...BUT DRYNESS OF THE MID LVL AIRMASS SHOWN ON THE 12Z NAM/
GFS FCST SDNGS SUG A DRY FCST IS WARRANTED AFTER THE FROPA SHOWERS
END OVER THE E IN THE MRNG. THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON HOW QUICKLY AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE SFC LO IN IOWA WL INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS NE ON THE STALLED FNT INTO THE CENTRAL LKS. THE 12Z NAM IS
DEEPEST AND FARTHER W WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RA IMPACTING ALL OF UPR MI THRU THE DAY ON SAT WITH
FAIRLY SHARP CYC NE FLOW LEADING TO A VERY CHILLY DAY AS WELL. THE
00Z CNDN/ECMWF RUNS ON THE OTHER HAND SHOWED A RELATIVELY WEAK SFC
LO MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NE...WITH LIGHTER PCPN ENDING SOON AFTER
12Z SAT. ALTHOUGH THE INCOMING SHRTWV IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...WITH
00Z-12Z SAT H5 HGT FALLS FCST UP TO 100M EVEN WITH THE WEAKER ECWMF
FCST...AND MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT THE NAM FCST...PREFER TO FOLLOW A
COMPROMISE BTWN THE SOMEWHAT DEEPER 12Z GFS/CNDN/ECMWF MODEL FCSTS
AND THE WEAKER/FASTER SCENARIO SHOWN BY THE 00Z ECMWF/CNDN AND 09Z
SREF. NCEP GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR REJECTING THE
DEEPER 12Z NAM FCST. THE PREFERRED MODELS SHOW THE HIER CATEGORICAL/
LIKELY POPS OVER ALL BUT THE WRN CWA...WHERE CHC POPS APPEAR MORE
APPROPRIATE FARTHEST FM THE STALLED BNDRY TO THE SE. THIS SCENARIO
WL ALSO SUPPORT A STEADY DRYING TREND W-E ON SAT...WITH PCPN ENDING
OVER THE FAR E BY EARLY/MID AFTN.
SAT NGT INTO TUE...HI PRES TRAILING THE DEPARTING SFC LO PRES IS
FCST TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LKS BY 12Z SUN...THE NE STATES AT
12Z MON AND THEN OVER THE CNDN MARITIMES ON TUE. DRY ACYC SW FLOW
ARND THIS FEATURE WL DOMINATE UPR MI DURING THIS TIME AND BRING A
PERIOD OF DRY WX. ALTHOUGH PWAT FALLING TOWARD 0.5 INCH AT 12Z SUN
WOULD SUPPORT SOME CHILLY OVERNGT LOWS...STEADY WSW FLOW ON THE NRN
FLANK OF HI PRES CENTER TO THE S MAY TEND TO LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR
COLDER TEMPS/FROST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NW HALF UNDER TIGHTER PRES
GRADIENT. H85 TEMPS ARE FCST TO SLOWLY MODERATE THRU THIS TIME...
RISING FM ARND 8C ON SUN TO ARND 10C ON MON AND THEN 12C ON TUE...
SUPPORTING A SLOW WARMING TREND THAT WL FEATURE MEAN DAILY TEMPS
RISING FM NEAR NORMAL ON SUN TO AT LEAST A BIT ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN ON
MON/TUE.
TUE/WED...SHRTWV MOVING THRU ZONAL FLOW OVER CENTRAL CANADA IS FCST
TO DRAG A COLD FNT THRU THE UPR LKS LATE TUE/TUE NGT. SINCE THERE
ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS MSTR
INFLOW WL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED TO THE S OF SHARPER HGT FALLS TO THE
N...NO MORE THAN LO CHC POPS ARE NECESSARY AT THIS POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT ALL THREE SITES.
THOUGH KSAW/KIWD WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE WINDS TO STAY
UP AND HAVE LEFT LLWS OUT AT THOSE SITES. A DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND IT COULD BRUSH KIWD.
THEN...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A COUPLE LOWS THAT WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE...BUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO
25KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION UP TO 25 KNOTS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO MONDAY AND KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
306 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION BEING LOCATED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS HAS LED TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION AND THERE WAS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT LIFTED NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS LED TO CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
WESTERN U.P. UNDER THE STEEP 700-300MB LAPSE RATES. THIS WAVE HAS
LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST AND BROUGHT MUCH OF THE MID CLOUDS WITH
IT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
THE EAST AND NEAR DULUTH. THE THICKER MID CLOUDS DID HOLD OFF TEMPS
AND WINDS SOME THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT THAT WE ARE SEEING MORE BREAKS
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE
UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S. AS OF 3PM...NWS MARQUETTE IS JUST BELOW OUR
RECORD HIGH FOR TODAY (79) AND WOULD EXPECT THAT TO BE BROKEN IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE CLOUDS DID HELP LIMIT MIXING FROM REACHING THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...BUT HAVE STILL BEEN SEEING 15-25KT WINDS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. EXPECT THE INCREASED SUNSHINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS TO LEAD TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AND OVER NORTHERN JAMES BAY. THEN...ANOTHER
WAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IDAHO WILL LEAD TO A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN NORTHEAST WYOMING.
THIS LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO ON THURSDAY. EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING TO BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING WHERE THERE ARE STEEP 750-400MB LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AND
POCKETS OF MOISTURE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO FAR WESTERN
UPPER MICHIGAN. IN ADDITION...THERE IS A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
IOWA THAT LOOKS TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. WITH THOSE
FEATURES BRUSHING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCES FROM EAST TO WEST TOWARDS THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. WHILE THE DRY AIR BELOW 700MB WILL LIKELY LIMIT
THE MEASURABLE PRECIP IN SOME AREAS...FEEL THE SUPPORT IS THERE FOR
MEASURABLE RAIN TO OCCUR. ONCE AGAIN...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY UP
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (TO
45KTS) 2-3KFT ABOVE THE SURFACE. THOSE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE NORMAL LOWS AND IN THE 60S WITH A FEW
70S OVER THE DOWNSLOPING AREAS OUT WEST.
HEADING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON...THE COLD FRONT TRAILING THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO
THROUGH THE DAY WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. BELIEVE THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LARGELY FOCUSED ALONG THE FRONT. BUT THERE ARE SOME HINTS AT
DEVELOPMENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND TIED TO A SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA WITH 1000-1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE. BEST 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS CONFINED TO THE AREAS IN IMMEDIATE
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA 20-25KT OUT AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE STRONGEST STORMS OCCURRING TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN TRYING TO SHIFT EAST
INTO THE U.P. DURING THE EVENING. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
TOMORROW...HAVE LIMITED THE TEMPS TO THE UPPER 70S WITH A FEW LOWER
80S IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO
BE SIMILAR BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER AND ONCE AGAIN HAVE GUSTS IN THE 20-
25KT RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 504 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
CURRENT WRN CONUS TROF AND ERN CONUS RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER
AMPLITUDE FLOW BY LATE THIS WEEKEND AS A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES HELP
SHIFT THE DEAMPLIFYING WRN TROF EASTWARD. THE FIRST WAVE WILL LIFT
INTO NRN ONTARIO THU NIGHT WITH THE FOLLOWING SHIFTING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION SAT. THESE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WARMING WILL BEGIN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW
FEATURING BLO NORMAL HEIGHTS IN WRN CANADA AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SE CANADA. LOOKING FARTHER
OUT...LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE POINTS TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BEING
FAVORED ON THE MAJORITY OF DAYS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. AS
FOR PCPN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PCPN WILL
OCCUR THU AFTN/NIGHT AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES IN ASSOCIATION WITH FIRST SHORTWAVE NOTED ABOVE. ANOTHER SHOT
OF PCPN COULD OCCUR LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
SECOND SHORTWAVE AS IT SUPPORTS A SFC WAVE TRACKING NE ALONG COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THU NIGHT. THE SE PORTION OF THE FCST AREA WILL
HAVE THE BEST CHC OF SEEING PCPN WITH THE SECOND SHORTWAVE.
THU THRU FRI MORNING...COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH FAR WRN UPPER MI
EARLY THU EVENING AND EXIT THE ERN FCST AREA EARLY FRI MORNING. WITH
CAPPING OUT AHEAD OF FRONT DUE TO THE CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVER THE AREA...CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONFINED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
COLD FRONT. BASED ON LATEST MODEL RUNS...INHERITED FCST APPEARS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE POPS AS THE FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE NECESSARY. NAM/GFS
GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPES OVER 1000J/KG INTO WRN UPPER MI AHEAD FRONT
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 30KT
LAGS MOSTLY BEHIND THE AXIS OF MAX INSTABILITY. THIS WILL LIMIT SVR
TSTM RISK TO SOME DEGREE. SPC OUTLOOK FOR A MARGINAL RISK OVER WRN
UPPER MI SEEMS APPROPRIATE....BUT WITH COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA DURING THE COOLING CYCLE...SVR TSTM RISK SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIMITED INTO CNTRL UPPER MI. ANY LINGERING SHRA
OVER THE E FRI MORNING WILL END EARLY AS FRONT EXITS. THU WILL BE
THE LAST WARM DAY OF THIS STRING. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH LWR
80S IN DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO NEXT SHORTWAVE THAT WILL REACH THE WRN GREAT
LAKES FRI NIGHT. SHORTWAVE WILL SPIN UP A SFC WAVE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THU NIGHT. THAT LOW WILL TRACK NE ACROSS LWR MI.
THE NAM IS A STRONG/SLOW OUTLIER AND HAS SFC LOW TRACK/HEAVIER PCPN
FARTHER W THAN OTHER GUIDANCE. IT WAS DISCARDED. WITH REST OF
GUIDANCE SHOWING COLD FRONT SETTLING SW TO NE ACROSS LWR MI BY THE
TIME THE SFC WAVE DEVELOPS...THE MAIN PCPN...ESPECIALLY HEAVIER
PCPN...WILL STAY SE OF THE FCST AREA. RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO JAMES BAY AND QUEBEC
WILL PROBABLY AID -SHRA DEVELOPMENT FARTHER W INTO UPPER MI. PCPN
MAY ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE FRI AFTN ACROSS THE SCNTRL/E WHERE SCHC
POPS WERE UTILIZED. OTHERWISE...FCST WILL SHOW CHC POPS ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SE HALF OF THE FCST AREA FRI NIGHT. THE FAR W WILL
LIKELY REMAIN DRY. MODEL TRENDS ARE FOR A QUICKER DEPARTURE OF SFC
WAVE TO THE NE ON SAT...SO FCST WILL TREND TO DRY WEATHER SOONER.
ALL PCPN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY AFTN. TEMPS FRI WILL BE CLOSER
TO NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. SAT WILL BE THE COOLEST
DAY WITH HIGHS 60-65F.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GREAT
LAKES SAT NIGHT/SUN...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT SAT NIGHT. FOR NOW...LOWERED TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 30S AT TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS...NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR FROST
MENTION YET.
DRY WEATHER/WARMING WILL BE THE RULE SUN THRU TUE WITH SW FLOW
DEVELOPING AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO NEW ENGLAND AND A LOW PRES TROF
EVENTUALLY MOVES OUT ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES.
EACH DAY...AFTN HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY...REACHING THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY TUE.
APPROACHING SFC TROF MAY BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AGAIN AT SOME
POINT LATER TUE INTO WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH GUSTY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY
TONIGHT AND LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LLWS AT ALL THREE SITES.
THOUGH KSAW/KIWD WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE WINDS TO STAY
UP AND HAVE LEFT LLWS OUT AT THOSE SITES. A DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND IT COULD BRUSH KIWD.
THEN...SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT WED SEP 16 2015
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 24-30
HOURS AS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION IS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND A COUPLE LOWS THAT WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 15-25KT RANGE...BUT WITH VERY STRONG WINDS JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...COULD SEE SOME STRONGER GUSTS TO 30KTS AT TIMES OVER
EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY NIGHT WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST UP TO
25KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN. THIS WILL SHIFT
WINDS MORE OUT OF THE NORTHERLY DIRECTION UP TO 25 KNOTS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAIN
INTO MONDAY AND KEEP WINDS BELOW 20KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SRF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...SRF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1228 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
Areas of showers and storms stretching from central Kansas through
northeast Nebraska early this morning will continue to translate
slowly eastward over the next several hours; however, at their
current speed and trajectory, precipitation will likely wane as the
LLJ weakens and the morning wears on before reaching the forecast
area. Scattered to broken stratus may linger even as precipitation
dissipates so have raised cloud cover for this morning across the
western half of the CWA, but clouds should then also dissipate as
boundary layer mixing builds during the late morning. Breezy
conditions are expected again this afternoon, which should mix down
high temperatures in the upper 80s nearly CWA-wide. Higher low-level
moisture will also advect in from the south southwest where dewpoints
are currently in upper 60s to lower 70s, and although mixing could
eliminate a few degrees from those readings by afternoon, the
afternoon will certainly feel a bit stickier than the last several
days as heat indices climb into the lower 90s. Both the RAP and HRRR
have been indicating a signal for convection across central MO for
this afternoon which could brush the southeastern corner of the CWA,
but feel that mixing has been overdone in the RAP and thus also the
HRRR this afternoon, possibly eliminating the cap erroneously. Have
raised PoPs to the upper-end of the silent range, but did not feel
slight chances were warranted given the biases of these model
solutions and a lack of continuity with other hires models.
Precipitation chances for tonight across central IA are starting to
look a bit lower, so have slightly lowered PoPs and shortened the
timeframe for possible convection in the northeastern quadrant of
the forecast area, where any IA storms that do develop would trek.
The thermal ridge strengthens directly over southern IA into the
northern CWA during the morning hours, likely ending any ongoing
precipitation shortly after sunrise.
This warm air aloft will be the primary complication for storm
chances on Thursday as convergence strengthens ahead of the well-
advertised cold front that will push through the forecast area late
Thursday through Friday. Shallow warm sector convection continues to
look probable Thursday afternoon with low-level moisture abound and
plenty of surface-based lift, but the potential for deep convective
initiation will be limited by capping even directly along the front
for much of the afternoon, and updrafts may have to wait until cooler
temperatures start to filter in aloft along an approaching shortwave
trough late Thursday evening. Several rounds of storms continue to
look likely along and immediately ahead of the slow-moving front
Thursday night through Friday, although the slightly delayed frontal
passage may allow for a bit of a break between rounds during the
daytime hours Friday. A few strong to marginally severe storms are
possible Thursday evening into the early afternoon due to high
instability supporting a few robust updrafts (and thus potentially
robust updraft collapses); and again Friday afternoon into the
early evening as the front clears through the region. Although cloud
cover throughout the day Friday may limit the strength of any
convection that redevelops along the front, increasing deep layer
shear will help any robust storms organize, possibly into a few
linear segments. Flooding also remains a concern with multiple rounds
of 2015-esque highly efficient rain, due to PWATs approaching
160-180% of normal.
The front will shift southeast and out of the region by late Friday
evening, leaving behind much quieter conditions and fall-like
temperatures for the weekend. Surface high pressure is faster to
build in, diminishing the longevity of strong cold air advection
during the daytime hours on Saturday; and height falls are not as
extreme behind this system when compared to the last, but highs in
the lower to mid 70s still look probable both Saturday and Sunday
before gradual warming begins once again. Due to uncertainties in the
long-term forecast, have opted to remove all slight chance PoPs for
next week until the litany of shortwave troughs in zonal to gradual
northwest flow become a bit more focused.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
For the afternoon, VFR conditions will continue with gusty winds out
of the south. Wind gusts may taper off periodically at sunset, but
will resume once the low-level jet initiates. Cloud cover will
increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Could see some isolated
convection early Thursday morning in the warm sector of the surface
low to the north, with additional chances of development in the
afternoon. The main threat will arrive ahead and along the cold
front late Thursday evening.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Laflin
AVIATION...Welsh
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
221 PM PDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SYNOPSIS...UNSEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FINAL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA THURSDAY...WITH STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS
ACROSS ELKO COUNTY. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE A COLD START AND A
BEAUTIFUL AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
RETURNS THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
NEVADA SANDWICHED BETWEEN SHORTWAVES AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR ALLOWING ONLY SCATTERED CUMULUS ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA. LAST NIGHT`S STRONG SHORTWAVE IS NOW NEAR YELLOWSTONE
NATIONAL PARK, WITH SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR BEHIND IT KEEPING ANY
CONVECTION VERY LIMITED. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF CONVECTION ACROSS
MAINLY WHITE PINE COUNTY INTO THIS EVENING, WITH RADAR SHOWING
WEAK ECHOES TRYING TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. 18Z NAM AND ESPECIALLY HRRR SOLUTIONS SHOWING ACTIVE
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY WHITE PINE COUNTY THROUGH ABOUT 8 PM,
WITH CAPE TO 500 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX OF -2. MEANWHILE, NEXT
SHORTWAVE ARRIVING IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD RAIN SHOWERS INTO HUMBOLDT COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS
DISTURBANCE SCRAPES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED ALONG THE IDAHO/UTAH BORDERS WITH SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 8K FT.
THURSDAY...FINAL AND STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE IN SW OREGON
NEAR 5 AM, AND DIVE SE TO BE CENTERED OVER ELKO COUNTY AT 5 PM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED IN NEVADA, WITH LITTLE IF ANY
RAINFALL SOUTH OF I-80. STRONG LIFT IN A COOL AIRMASS UNDER
PASSING VORT MAX WILL SHAKE OUT A GOOD ROUND OF SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY, WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES POSSIBLE.
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL FOCUS ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BENEATH THIS VORT MAX, AVERAGING 20-30 MPH. SOME GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH ON/NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. UNSEASONABLY COOL AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST VALLEYS HOLDING IN THE 60S.
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...FREEZING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF ELKO, EUREKA AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES. THE
GROWING SEASON HAS BEEN DECLARED OVER, AS SUCH NO FREEZE WARNINGS
WILL BE ISSUED.
FRIDAY...MUCH IMPROVED WEATHER, WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS, FEW
CLOUDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S
WITH WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 5 MPH, SET YOUR TEE TIMES NOW! BAT
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY. AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD...THE 500MB LONG WAVE TROF RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
CURRENT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL HAVE FILLED AND PUSHED EAST. ONE
FINAL PRONOUNCE 500MB TROF EXITS THE STATE SATURDAY MORNING WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. THIS GIVES WAY TO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 500MB
HEIGHTS AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL WITH EVEN SOME WEAK
RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NV. UNDER THIS FLOW...A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PARTS; HOWEVER NO
EFFECTS OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS. BY MONDAY...A WEAK CLOSED-
OFF LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CA COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST IN
RESPONSE TO A 500MB TROF/SURFACE FRONT (ORGINATING FROM THE LONG
WAVE TROF OVER THE GULF OF AK) APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THIS LOW GRABS SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE...PUSHING PW VALUES OVER 1 INCH BY TUESDAY AM IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NV. THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE TRACK OF THIS FILLING
LOW...SPECIFICALLY HOW FAR NORTH IT MOVES. THE ECMWF PULLS THE
LOW AND MOISTURE FURTHER WEST...WHICH PROVIDES THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE CWA A GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS ON
THE OTHER HAND ONLY GIVES PORTIONS OF WHITE PINE AND EASTERN HALF
OF NORTHERN NYE MEASURABLE PRECIP. THE GFS ENSEMBLE AND GEM ALSO
INDICATED THE FEATURE BUT LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS PROGGED
TRACK. GIVEN THIS..IN ADDITION THAT THE CURRENT ECMWF TRACK IF
SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE 00Z RUN...AND THE TROF IS
POSITIVELY TILTED...KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS (20-40%) OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA...WITH 10-15% NORTHWARD TO THE ID/NV
BORDER.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH HEIGHTS INCREASING...TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE
80S...PEAKING ON SUNDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUD COVER AND LOWER HEIGHTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
SLOWLY WARM FROM THE 30S SATURDAY MORNING TO THE 40S AND 50S BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHEN THEY INCREASE AHEAD THE 500MB TROF.
&&
.AVIATION...MAIN IMPACT FOR THE EARLY TIME FRAME IS THUNDERSTORMS
AT KELY WITH COLD FRONT OVERHEAD. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM. ACTIVITY DECREASES THIS EVENING WITH A SHOWER OR
TWO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...NEED TO MONITOR FOR IFR CIGS
DURING THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME DUE TO RAINFALL RECEIVED TODAY. AT
KWMC AND KEKO...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS
DURING THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME DUE TO ANOTHER SYSTEM PASSING
OVERHEAD. A SHOWER OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. KTPH REMAINS VFR
DURING THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z
OUT OF THE WEST OR NORTHWEST.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHERN NEVADA ON THURSDAY, WITH ACTIVITY FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN
FWZ 467, 468, 469 AND 470. STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ACROSS MAINLY
ELKO COUNTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH.
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WILL KEEP MIN RH ELEVATED, NEAR
30%. DRY WITH MUCH LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY. BAT
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/85/85/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ABERDEEN SD
315 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
WEAK CONVECTION OVER CLEAR LAKE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFF INTO
MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ADDITIONAL WEAK/SCATTERED
REDEVELOPMENT...THE DISORGANIZATION LIKELY OWING TO A LACK OF STRONG
FORCING ALOFT. THIS AREA MAY EXPERIENCE SOME ADDITIONAL MORE
ORGANIZED ELEVATED CONVECTION AS A LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE JET WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
CWA. A WAVE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
WEST RIVER...SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS ARE DRY BELOW
10KFT...WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY ALOFT...SUGGESTING SCATTERED
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTING STRIKE. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING INTO THE CWA THURSDAY WILL ALLOW FOR MORE
AVERAGE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE A RATHER
PROMINENT QPF BULLSEYE WEST RIVER INTO CENTRAL COUNTIES FRIDAY IN
THE VICINITY OF AN INVERTED TROF...WITH FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF A
SHARED ENERGY AREA AND Q VECTOR BULLSEYE. TO THE EAST...WE WILL SEE
A DRY NORTHEAST FETCH...WHICH WILL LIMIT QPF/POPS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BOTTOMED OUT AROUND +5C BY THAT POINT...SO
ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP 60F.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WHEN THE PERIOD
BEGINS...THEN GETS QUICKLY PUSHED EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE TROUGH/FRONT WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND
LOOKS TO FINALLY TRACK ACROSS THE CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE CWA WHERE SOME
INSTABILITY IS NOTED IN THE MODELS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY...SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR THE TIME BEING.
WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
70S ON SUNDAY...AND IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY. HIGHS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 WILL BE COMMON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY
THURSDAY. LOOK FOR SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 30 MPH RANGE THURSDAY
MORNING.
&&
.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
320 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.SHORT TERM...
LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS IS A BIT FARTHER
EAST INTO THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND A FAIRLY WELL DEVELOPED CU
FIELD HAS APPEARED OVER THE LAST HOUR IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND
THE WESTERN COLUMN OF COUNTIES ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT THERE IS A BIT BETTER INSTABILITY WITH ML AND
SB CAPES RANGING FROM AROUND 500-750 J/KG ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO
NEAR 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROLLING PLAINS. HOWEVER...THERE
IS A FAIRLY STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THE QUESTION BECOMES WHERE A SWEET SPOT COULD
EMERGE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR
LOOPS...AS WELL AS A LOOK TO THE WEST FROM THE FORECAST
OFFICE...SHOWS THAT STORMS ARE CLOSE TO INITIATING IN BAILEY
COUNTY/NEAR MULESHOE. BASES ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY HIGH AT
AROUND 10KFT DUE TO DEEP DAYTIME MIXING SO PRECIPITATION WILL HAVE
TO DEAL WITH QUITE A BIT OF EVAPORATION BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN SOME DOWNBURSTS THAT COULD TRY TO
GET UP TO AROUND 50 MPH SO THAT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEXT ISSUE IS HOW FAR SOUTHEAST ANY STORMS CAN
MAKE IT. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ALL HAVE CONVECTION IN THEM BUT
ARE STRUGGLING WITH HOW FAR SOUTHEAST TO PUSH THE STORMS BEFORE
THEY DISSIPATE. THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF BOTH HAVE STORMS MAKING IT
CLOSE TO LUBBOCK BUT ALL OTHER MODELS KEEP PRECIPITATION NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CITY. THEY ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT COVERAGE WILL BE
ISOLATED AT BEST. SO...WILL RUN ISOLATED POPS THROUGH 03Z
NORTHWEST OF A TULIA TO PLAINS LINE.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW MORNING WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO
CONTINUED SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. WE WILL
AGAIN SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AGAIN
ALONG AND EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. 12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO KEY ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS TO BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR
CONVECTION AND KEPT POPS HIGHEST ACROSS THIS AREA. THIS INCLUDES A
SLIVER OF LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THERE AS WELL AS COVERAGE CONTINUES
TO BE HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAY BUT PERHAPS A SHADE ON THE COOL SIDE THANKS TO
THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS WELL.
JORDAN
.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTN...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO BE
CAPABLE OF BENDING IN ACROSS THE REGION COMMENCING TOMORROW AND
PERSISTING INTO EARLY WEEKEND. A NW PACIFIC UA LOW CURRENTLY
MOVING ONSHORE ACROSS OREGON IS PROGGED TO TRANSLATE ENE TO ACROSS
THE NRN PLAINS BY FRIDAY. IT WILL SEND DOWN A SFC TROUGH/SLIGHTLY
BREEZY COLD FRONT THAT IS STILL ON TRACK TO IMPINGE ON THE CWA
FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH AN ALREADY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE /PWATS OF 0.75-1.50 INCHES/ COURTESY OF PERSISTENT SRLY
SFC FLOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN CHANCES OF PRECIP WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF BEING MOST BULLISH WRT TO THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE
PRECIP /SCATTERED-WIDESPREAD PRECIP/...VERSUS THE MORE
PESSIMISTIC NAM /PRECIP CONFINED TO OFF THE CAPROCK/. IF THE GFS
AND ECMWF ARE INDEED HANDLING THE PRECIP BETTER THAN THE OUTLIER
NAM...GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED PWATS AND DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
THE STORMS...COULD SEE BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL.
PROGRESSIVE FLOW ACROSS THE NRN U.S. TIER WILL RESULT IN THE UA
RIDGE GETTING SHOVED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE REGION BY
SATURDAY...AND THUS FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER FROM SWRLY FLOW TO W-NW
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH IS EXHIBITED
TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA SATURDAY AFTN/EVENING...THOUGH COULD
RETURN AS A WARM FRONT WITH AN UPSLOPE SFC REGIME ENVELOPING THE
REGION...COUPLED WITH A BIT OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE THINNING OUT QUITE A BIT BY
SUNDAY...LINGERING PRECIP WILL STILL EXIST AS A SECOND SLIGHTLY
STRONGER UA DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS/PANHANDLE
REGION.
THE EMERGENCE OF AMPLIFIED UA RIDGING TO OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK IS
SHOWN TO QUICKLY EXPAND TO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. WHETHER OR NOT THE BRIEF PERIOD OF NWRLY FLOW
ALOFT AND A POSSIBLE WEAKNESS ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE UA
RIDGE IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE RATHER LIGHT QPF SIGNALS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CWA /AS HINTED AT BY THE ECMWF AND THE GFS/ IS
DEBATABLE...AS IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
SAID UA RIDGE. WILL OPT TO MAINTAIN NIL POPS BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT
ATTM.
ABOVE NORM TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY /90S/...WHERE THEREAFTER
TEMPS REMINISCENT OF FALL WILL OCCUR FOR THE WEEKEND /70S AND 80S/.
TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARMUP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH MID-
WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 64 92 64 90 / 10 20 20 10
TULIA 64 93 65 91 / 10 20 20 20
PLAINVIEW 64 92 65 91 / 10 20 20 20
LEVELLAND 62 92 64 92 / 10 20 20 20
LUBBOCK 66 93 68 93 / 10 20 20 20
DENVER CITY 63 93 65 92 / 10 20 20 20
BROWNFIELD 63 92 66 93 / 10 20 20 20
CHILDRESS 70 97 72 94 / 0 10 20 30
SPUR 65 96 68 94 / 0 0 10 30
ASPERMONT 69 98 71 96 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
14/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1203 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL. PWAT REMAINS ELEVATED AT
AROUND TWO INCHES...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY AROUND THE CWA.
THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING HRL AND MFE AS IT MOVES INLAND.
ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINSHOWERS COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE CIGS AND
VSBY BELOW VFR. LIGHTNING NOT OBSERVED NOW...BUT AN EMBEDDED TSTM
OR TWO IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOULD SEE
CLEARING THIS EVENING WITH FEW TO SCT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING
THURSDAY MORNING. OVERALL RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LESS ON THURSDAY AS
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH MOVES INLAND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CEILINGS WERE
NEAR 5500FT AT KAPY. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL TODAY WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK 500MB
LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO BRING
MOISTURE ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015/
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...DESPITE THE 500MB RIDGE
ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS...THE WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO DRAW MOISTURE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO NORTHEAST MEXICO. SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS PROG ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA TODAY AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
THE 500MB RIDGE ACROSS WEST TEXAS BRINGS DRIER AIR ALOFT INTO
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE WEAK 500MB LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO MOVES INLAND ACROSS EASTERN MEXICO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A FLAT 500 MB HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY IN THE LONG
TERM PROVIDING BENIGN WEATHER ACROSS DEEP S TX THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD WITH ITS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AN ABUNDANT DRY AIR
MASS MOVES OVER THE REGION PROVIDING DRY DAYS ACROSS THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MEAN RH VALUES FALL BELOW 10
PERCENT FROM ~750 UP TO 300 MB WHICH ENSURES A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CWA. STILL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE
WILL AID FOR A FEW TO SCT CUMULUS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LACK OF CONVECTION AND
ABUNDANT DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR MORE
DAYTIME HEATING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGH`S IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S. OVERNIGHT EXPECTING MUCH CLEAR NIGHTS WILL KEEP LOW
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH THE COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
GFS/ECMWF MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE 00Z MODEL RUN SHOW POPS REDUCE
TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE CWA INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A VERY
WEAK SIGNATURE OF THE WEAK EASTERLY WAVE/LINGERING MOISTURE OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGE IS DEPICTED TO BE IN CONTROL AND BROAD
DOMINATING MOST OF THE REGION AND EXTENDING INTO MX AND THE PAC
COAST. IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES RIDGE WILL KEEP DEEPER MOISTURE
WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WHICH IS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CWA. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT BUT MAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEA BREEZE BUT SILENT 10 POPS ARE SUFFICIENT.
AS THIS DRY TREND IS WELL NOTED IN THE LAST MODEL RUN... DECIDED
TO LEAN TOWARDS DRIER POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AS LESS CLOUD
COVER AND CONVECTION IS EXPECTED..LEAN TOWARDS HIGHER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.
MARINE...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEAS WERE NEAR 6 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 EARLY THIS MORNING.
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES AND A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES. SWELLS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
APPEAR TO HAVE PEAKED THIS MORNING BUT WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE FAR OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH 7 AM THIS
MORNING FOR HIGH SEAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. COAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION
WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK
GRADIENT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS KEEPS AN EAST FETCH OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF. THE GRADIENT REMAINS RELAX THROUGH THE PERIOD
MAINTAINING A LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW WITH SEAS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 FEET
FOR THE MOST PART. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF. MODELS SUGGEST THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING FURTHER SOUTH KEEPING THE GULF WATERS
UNDER A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS.
BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS
MORNING FOR GMZ170-175.
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
54/52/65
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A COLD
FRONT STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION OTHER THAN SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASSING OVERHEAD ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF A MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIRMASS. THE FRONTAL ZONE IS
ALSO LARGELY INACTIVE DUE TO MID-LEVEL CAPPING. EVEN FARTHER
UPSTREAM...LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OVER NORTHERN WYOMING ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE WESTERN NOAM TROUGH. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT MOVE EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM.
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE
BORDER OF MINNESOTA WHILE THE COLD FRONT REMAINS RELATIVELY
STATIONARY. AHEAD OF THESE SYSTEMS...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PULL UP
MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EVENING...WHICH LOOKS
MOSTLY CLEAR AND MILD. BUT MODELS APPEAR UNANIMOUS IN DEVELOPING A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVERNIGHT AND PUSHING IT INTO NORHTWEST WISCONSIN
BY 12Z. THIS WAVE IN CONCERT WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI LATE. BEST CHANCES WILL
BE OVER N-C WI CLOSEST TO THE MID-LEVEL WAVE. LOCATIONS FURTHER
EAST SHOULD ENJOY A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT. LOWS WILL MAINLY FALL INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THURSDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE
MORNING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI. FORCING VIA SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON SO THINK THE
COVERAGE OF ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DECREASING BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA ARE LIKELY TO SEE A BREAK IN
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY...BUT ITS HARD TO DETERMINE HOW LINGERING CLOUD
COVER WILL DISRUPT THE HEATING CURVE. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION WOULD ARGUE FOR AT LEAST SOME BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER
70S. WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S...ML CAPES
COULD REACH INTO THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH LITTLE CAP BY LATE
AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...THINK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REDEVELOP DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI...BUT A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE FURTHER
EAST. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE BY THIS
TIME AS WIND FIELDS STRENGTHEN ALOFT. MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
COULD ALSO BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST BY EARLY IN THE
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERN IS SVR TSTM POTENTIAL THU EVG...AND PCPN TRENDS
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY EVG...AS A S/W
TROF...RRQ OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET AND COLD FRONT IMPACT THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH THE BEST THREAT SHOULD OCCUR TO OUR WEST EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KTS
MAY SUPPORT ISOLD STG/SVR TSTMS OVER NC/C WI INTO THE EARLY EVG.
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THU NGT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...RESULTING IN A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PCPN MIDDAY.
A POTENT NEGATIVELY-TILTED S/W TROF IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY NIGHT...
WITH THE DEEPENING SFC LOW TRACKING THROUGH SE WI AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER WEST AND STRONGER WITH
THIS SYSTEM...SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY NW AND CATEGORICAL
SE. THE GFS/NAM MODELS SHOW TWO QPF MAXS...ONE OVER SE/EC WI
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A REGION OF STG ISENT LIFT...AND ANOTHER
IN WC/NC WI DUE TO THE UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE. HAVE ATTEMPTED
TO DEPICT THIS PATTERN IN THE QPF GRIDS...THOUGH AMOUNTS MAY
NEED TO BE RAISED WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS. LINGERING SHOWERS
SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY DECREASING CLOUDS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE
WEEKEND AND BEGINNING OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK...LEADING TO
A PERIOD OF PLEASANT WEATHER WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1153 AM CDT WED SEP 16 2015
A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ON THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SHOULD ONLY SEE AN INFLUX OF MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS
INTO THE REGION. COVERAGE IS ONLY EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS UNTIL DETAILS CAN GET BETTER PINNED
DOWN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......MPC