Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/14/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 850 PM MST SUN SEP 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK KEEPING STORM CHANCES GOING...MAINLY EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...DRIER AND STABLE AIR TAKES OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING A
FEW DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...  VERY INTERESTING NIGHT WEATHER WISE...AT LEAST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. ALTHOUGH THE WEATHE PATTERN IS NOT A CLASSIC
MONSOONAL ONE ANYMORE...THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OCCURRING CERTAINLY
FEELS LIKE A MONSOON EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL DESERTS. UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE TROFFING CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CALIFORNIA
COAST...AND ONE SHORT WAVE HAS EJECTED AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WAS
MOVING NORTH OF PHOENIX AND INTO NEVADA/SRN UTAH AND NRN ARIZONA AS
OF 8 PM. IN ADDITION TO THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORT WAVE TODAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WERE QUITE DIFLUENT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
VALUES WERE NOT EXCESSIVE TODAY...THEY WERE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. DEWPOINTS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS TODAY WERE MOSTLY IN
THE 50S. DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON STORMS DEVELOPED TO THE NORTH OF
PHOENIX AND OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND TO THE SOUTH OF PHOENIX
OVER PIMA AND SOUTHERN PINAL COUNTIES. AS IT TYPICALLY THE CASE WHEN
THIS HAPPENS...OUTFLOWS FROM THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL
DESERTS...CONVERGE AND COLLIDE AND FORM DESERT THUNDERSTORMS.

STRONG OUTFLOWS MOVED ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS EVENING WITH
SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 MPH TO NEARLY 50 MPH...AND RESULTED IN AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST...RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL BLOWING DUST
ADVISORIES. COLLIDING BOUNDARIES RESULTED IN SCATTERED STORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL DESERTS...SOME OF WHICH PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN
ADDITION TO THE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. DESPITE BEING BEHIND THE
EXITING SHORT WAVE...WE SHOULD SEE SCATTERED STORMS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH LATE EVENING...WITH CONVECTION GOING TO BED
BY MIDNIGHT OR SO AS THE BOUNDARY LEVELS BECOME STABILIZED. FOR THE
FAR WESTERN DESERTS AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN
TWEAKED TO COVER CURRENT SKY AND WEATHER TRENDS AND LOOK TO BE IN
GOOD SHAPE.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
REST OF TONIGHT... THE SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO
TRANSITION INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE CLOUDINESS WITH IT HAS THINNED
DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WELL. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS INCLUDING OUR FORECAST ZONE 24...SOUTHERN GILA AND FAR
NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. CONVERSELY...THE CENTRAL
DESERTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE EARLIER CLOUD COVER. DEW
POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS DUE
TO DAYTIME MIXING. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND IN TURN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WHICH COULD INITIATE NEW STORMS. HI-RES MODELS INCLUDING HRRR AND
AND U OF A WRF/S ARE DEPICTING THAT SCENARIO TO VARYING DEGREES SUCH
THAT STORMS FROM ZONE 24 AND AREAS OUTSIDE OF OUR CWA SPAWN
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS THIS EVENING. MADE AN
EARLIER ADJUSTMENT TO DECREASE THE AFTERNOON POPS OVER THE PHOENIX
AREA BUT INCREASE THE EVENING POPS. A CAVEAT IS THAT MODEST LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TENDS TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT. AS
MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME DYNAMICAL
ASSISTANCE TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COINCIDING WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK...MAINLY BENEFITING NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR THE S.F. BAY AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
GET KICKED EASTWARD BY A LARGER UPSTREAM TROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL COME
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WITH A
DIVQ BULLSEYE. WHILE THE MODELS SHOW MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVERNIGHT...THEY ARE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE CAPE WHICH IS DUE AT LEAST
IN PART TO WARMING ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THE VORT
MAXW WILL LAG BEHIND THE BETTER MOISTURE BY THE TIME IT MOVES IN.
THUS POPS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO OPERATE IN
WHICH AIDS LONGEVITY. TUESDAY IS SOMETHING OF A REPEAT OF MONDAY IN
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS BUT IT WEAKENS EVEN
FASTER AND HAS LESS OF A LEFTOVER SHORT WAVE. THUS POPS ARE LOWER FOR
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INLAND WHICH HELPS ADVECT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...IT IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRY AIR. THE END RESULT IS THAT
THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WITH TROUGHING PUSHING THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
TREND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...DUE TO
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC SHORTWAVES FLOWING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...
MODELS INSIST THAT A STABLE AND WARM AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHWR
ACTIVITY. AFTN TEMPS THESE DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA...LEADING TO GUSTY AND HIGHLY VARIABLE WINDS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST 10 PM TONIGHT.
GUSTS MAY EXCEED 30 MPH AT TIMES...AND QUICKLY CHANGE DIRECTIONS
DEPENDING UPON WHICH NEW OUTFLOW MOVES IN AND ACROSS THE TERMINAL.
ALSO EXPECT STORMS TO POSSIBLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS AS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MERGERS FORCE NEW CONVECTION. WILL KEEP VCTS WORDING IN THE
TAFS THROUGH 05Z OR SO...AFTERWARD WE WILL SEE LOTS OF BROKEN
MIDLEVEL DEBRIS CLOUD DECKS INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WINDS
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE DIURNAL AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH WINDS MOSTLY FAVORING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT.

WE ARE NOT LOOKING AT LOW CIGS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MOST CIGS SHOULD
BE AOA 8K FEET.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED OUT WEST AND WINDS WILL BE TAPERING
OFF...FAVORING THE SOUTHWEST AT KBLH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND
FAVORING THE WEST AT KIPL. SPEEDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOB 10KT. MUCH
STRONGER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER THIS VALID TAF PERIOD MONDAY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY DECLINE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO A 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TENDENCY FOR A LIGHT
DRAINAGE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...CB
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO/CB
FIRE WEATHER...MO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1045 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE WET WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WHILE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT BEING
HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLC
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... DOMINATING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM UPDATE...

CLOUD TRENDS... AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG FROM BOSTON TO NORWOOD
TO FITCHBURG HAS BEEN PIVOTING AND NOT MOVING. HOWEVER IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM THE EAST. HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THIS
NICELY AND ACTUALLY SHIFTS THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS IN CT RIVER VALLEY AND
ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN RI ARE ERODING BUT NEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP. THICK HIGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS PA/NY/NORTHERN NJ
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS...BAND OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND HAS
DISSIPATED. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDINESS MENTIONED ABOVE
WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY STATE. OUR
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS POP UP FARTHER TO THE EAST IN EASTERN CT/CENTRAL MA/NORTHERN
RI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST POPS.

LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES LATE THIS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO LOWER 70S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...SO RAISED MAXES THERE BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS A LOW APPROACHES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12/00Z
GUIDANCE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO
OUR REGION LATE. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE NEAREST THE FRONT ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...WITH VALUES DIMINISHING TOWARD THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY.

INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH WHERE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS TOWARD THE
SOUTH COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
TO GET THESE THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM UPSTATE NY...WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CREATES AN OCCLUSION OVER OUR REGION. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE AWAY FROM OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN IT AND
THE SURFACE LOW OVER UPSTATE NY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE A TOTAL
WASHOUT...OR RAINING ALL THE TIME. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...
SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA MONDAY...
  OTHERWISE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY THROUGH
  FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
* TEMPERATURES MAY RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MID
  TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHOWING GOOD
CONSISTENCY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO CLIP INTO N AND W MA
AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES DURING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF ITS COLD POOL TRAVERSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY PRECIP THE REGION
WILL RECEIVE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AGAIN.

SIGNAL CONTINUES FOR LARGE HIGH PRES EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE SURFACE
HIGH SETS UP...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAILY SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY TUE AND/OR WED.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY S TO THE MID ATLC STATES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY AS
DEWPTS RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID-LATE
SEPTEMBER... MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA
DURING THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE
OF PASSING H5 SHORT WAVE/COLD POOL ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MELT AWAY QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES SETS UP FROM NY TO THE SE U.S. AS
LOW PRES ACROSS THE MARITIMES KEEPS SOME PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY. MAY SEE GUSTY W-NW WINDS DURING
TUE WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS THE HIGH EXTENDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS SHIFT TO N ON WED...BUT WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS S. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW ON THU BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...THEN WILL PICK UP A BIT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP
OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IT JUST A TAD COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1025 AM UPDATE...AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG FROM BOSTON TO
NORWOOD TO FITCHBURG HAS BEEN PIVOTING AND NOT MOVING. HOWEVER IT
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM THE EAST. HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THIS
NICELY AND ACTUALLY SHIFTS THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS IN CT RIVER VALLEY AND
ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN RI ARE ERODING BUT NEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP. THICK HIGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS PA/NY/NORTHERN NJ
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MA AND NORTHWEST CT.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BOS-OWD-FIT THROUGH 18Z OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-LIFR CIGS WITH GUSTY E/SE-WINDS. SHOWERS. VSBY IMPACTS WITH
LIKELY IFR IN +SHRA. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WITH ANY SHOWERS...
COULD SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS. MAY ALSO CONTEND WITH LLWS
IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
EVENING PRIOR TO WINDS AT THE SURFACE BACKING OUT OF THE W. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING. IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS E END OF AIRPORT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 16Z...THEN BECOMING
VFR. MVFR CIGS AGAIN AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS ACROSS N
CENTRAL AND W MA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MAY
ALSO SEE BRIEF PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS LATE MON NIGHT
ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. W WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KT DURING THE DAY ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THE HIGHER INLAND
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WITH
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS AS
WELL AS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
PA. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
ALSO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND MAY
BRING REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS. BREEZY E-SE WINDS INITIALLY. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS POSSIBLE. WAVES BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SO SMALL CRAFTS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT AS WELL.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
ODAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-NW WINDS CONTINUE ON TUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/GAF
MARINE...BELK/EVT/GAF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1039 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THIS AFTENROON BUT SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. SUNDAY WILL BE WET WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. WHILE A
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FORECAST...CAN NOT RULE OUT IT BEING
HEAVY AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLC
STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RIDGE WILL EXPAND ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD... DOMINATING THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM DURING THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1025 AM UPDATE...

CLOUD TRENDS... AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG FROM BOSTON TO NORWOOD
TO FITCHBURG HAS BEEN PIVOTING AND NOT MOVING. HOWEVER IT IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM THE EAST. HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THIS
NICELY AND ACTUALLY SHIFTS THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS IN CT RIVER VALLEY AND
ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN RI ARE ERODING BUT NEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP. THICK HIGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS PA/NY/NORTHERN NJ
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. ADJUSTED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.

PRECIPITATION TRENDS...BAND OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND HAS
DISSIPATED. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDINESS MENTIONED ABOVE
WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST PA AND CENTRAL NY STATE. OUR
SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE IN WESTERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. COULD ALSO SEE A FEW
SHOWERS POP UP FARTHER TO THE EAST IN EASTERN CT/CENTRAL MA/NORTHERN
RI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NO ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO FORECAST POPS.

LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES LATE THIS
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED TO LOWER 70S
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST AND ISLANDS...SO RAISED MAXES THERE BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS A LOW APPROACHES. RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE 12/00Z
GUIDANCE THAT A WARM FRONT WILL REACH THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW
ENGLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT SUNDAY. THIS FRONT SLOWLY MOVES NORTH INTO
OUR REGION LATE. THIS FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS.
GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WOULD BE NEAREST THE FRONT ACROSS
AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE...WITH VALUES DIMINISHING TOWARD THE
MERRIMACK VALLEY.

INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT ENOUGH WHERE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AREAS TOWARD THE
SOUTH COAST AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY
TO GET THESE THUNDERSTORMS...SHOULD THEY DEVELOP AT ALL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS
REMAIN POSSIBLE AS WELL.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

PARENT LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH FROM UPSTATE NY...WHILE A
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE CREATES AN OCCLUSION OVER OUR REGION. BOTH
OF THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD BE AWAY FROM OUR REGION TOWARD DAYBREAK
MONDAY MORNING. THIS SECONDARY LOW SHOULD PROVIDE A GOOD FOCUS
MECHANISM FOR THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN IT AND
THE SURFACE LOW OVER UPSTATE NY. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. NOT THINKING IT WILL BE A TOTAL
WASHOUT...OR RAINING ALL THE TIME. INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL...
SO WILL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA MONDAY...
  OTHERWISE IMPROVING CONDITIONS
* HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. TUESDAY THROUGH
  FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
* TEMPERATURES MAY RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS MID
  TO LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH MOST OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AND SHOWING GOOD
CONSISTENCY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS MAINLY FROM TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

MAY SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS TRYING TO CLIP INTO N AND W MA
AND ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES DURING MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
AND SOUTHERN EDGE OF ITS COLD POOL TRAVERSES NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
INTO THE MARITIMES. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY PRECIP THE REGION
WILL RECEIVE THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS THE RIDGE TAKES OVER AGAIN.

SIGNAL CONTINUES FOR LARGE HIGH PRES EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE H5 RIDGE RE-ESTABLISHING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW THE SURFACE
HIGH SETS UP...AND WHETHER THERE WILL BE DAILY SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY TUE AND/OR WED.

AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLOWLY S TO THE MID ATLC STATES
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO S-SW. THIS
WILL BRING A RETURN OF WARM TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY AS
DEWPTS RISE TO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S BY LATE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT
HIGHS TO RUN AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS FOR MID-LATE
SEPTEMBER... MAINLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...MAY SEE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ACROSS N CENTRAL AND W MA
DURING THE DAY DUE TO DIURNAL INFLUENCES ALONG WITH SOUTHERN EDGE
OF PASSING H5 SHORT WAVE/COLD POOL ACROSS N NEW ENGLAND. ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP SHOULD MELT AWAY QUICKLY AS THE SUN SETS.
SOME CLOUDS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY MON NIGHT...THEN WILL SEE MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS RUNNING CLOSE TO OR JUST
BELOW SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES SETS UP FROM NY TO THE SE U.S. AS
LOW PRES ACROSS THE MARITIMES KEEPS SOME PRES GRADIENT ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND ESPECIALLY DURING TUESDAY. MAY SEE GUSTY W-NW WINDS DURING
TUE WHICH SHOULD DIMINISH TUE NIGHT AS THE HIGH EXTENDS INTO NEW
ENGLAND. WINDS SHIFT TO N ON WED...BUT WILL BE LIGHT WITH A WEAK
PRES GRADIENT SO SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. EXPECT HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...CONTINUED WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRES
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS S. EXPECT WINDS TO SHIFT TO S-SW ON THU BUT
REMAIN LIGHT...THEN WILL PICK UP A BIT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL TOP
OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE S COAST WHERE ONSHORE WINDS
WILL KEEP IT JUST A TAD COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...

TODAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
1025 AM UPDATE...AREA OF LOW CLOUDINESS/FOG FROM BOSTON TO
NORWOOD TO FITCHBURG HAS BEEN PIVOTING AND NOT MOVING. HOWEVER IT
IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ERODING FROM THE EAST. HRRR MODEL DEPICTS THIS
NICELY AND ACTUALLY SHIFTS THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WESTWARD INTO
CENTRAL MA THIS AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS IN CT RIVER VALLEY AND
ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN RI ARE ERODING BUT NEW CUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE ALREADY POPPING UP. THICK HIGH MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
CONTINUES TO PROGRESS STEADILY EASTWARD ACROSS PA/NY/NORTHERN NJ
AND WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ALLOWING SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE
COAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LATE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR
WESTERN MA AND NORTHWEST CT.

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS BOS-OWD-FIT THROUGH 18Z OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.
SHOWERS MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS.
AFTER MIDNIGHT EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH IFR CIGS
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST. COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-LIFR CIGS WITH GUSTY E/SE-WINDS. SHOWERS. VSBY IMPACTS WITH
LIKELY IFR IN +SHRA. LOW CONFIDENCE TSRA. WITH ANY SHOWERS...
COULD SEE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS. MAY ALSO CONTEND WITH LLWS
IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY INTO
EVENING PRIOR TO WINDS AT THE SURFACE BACKING OUT OF THE W. PATCHY
FOG POSSIBLE...WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE SOUTH COAST.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AROUND 16Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING. IFR VSBYS AND
CIGS E END OF AIRPORT WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 16Z...THEN BECOMING
VFR. MVFR CIGS AGAIN AFTER 00Z WITH MVFR/IFR VSBYS.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN ANY SHOWERS ACROSS N
CENTRAL AND W MA DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. MAY
ALSO SEE BRIEF PATCHY FOG WITH LOCAL MVFR VSBYS LATE MON NIGHT
ACROSS E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. W WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 20
KT DURING THE DAY ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS THE HIGHER INLAND
TERRAIN.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAINLY VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS. MAY SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WITH
LOCAL MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INLAND AREAS AS
WELL AS ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT WINDS SHIFTING FROM NORTH/NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW
5 FEET.

TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM
PA. THESE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
ALSO REMAIN BELOW 5 FEET. SHOWERS AHEAD OF THIS LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...AND MAY
BRING REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
PERIODIC SHOWERS. BREEZY E-SE WINDS INITIALLY. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SHOWERS. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25
KTS POSSIBLE. WAVES BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS SO SMALL CRAFTS
LOOK TO CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. SEAS BUILD UP TO 5-7 FT AS WELL.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG.
ODAY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
W-NW WINDS CONTINUE ON TUE WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...BUT EXPECTED
TO DIMINISH AS HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES. EXPECT LIGHT WINDS TUE
NIGHT AND WED. SEAS 4 FT OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT/GAF
NEAR TERM...BELK/GAF
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT/GAF
MARINE...BELK/EVT/GAF




EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 918 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.DISCUSSION... EARLY STORMS ONGOING SINCE THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OVER
THE EASTERN GULF CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST ALONG
THE WEST CST OF FL. SCT LIGHT SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF THIS EARLY
ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO KISSIMMEE AND TITUSVILLE
NORTHWARD.

FURTHER DESTABILIZATION OF THE LOCAL AIRMASS BY LIMITED SB HEATING
COUPLED WITH FORCED ASCENT AS THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPR WAVE
APPROACHES THE REGION SHOULD INCREASE THE LIKELIHOOD OF STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF STORM DEVELOPMENT IS
COMPLICATED BY CLOUD COVER AND THE LATER DIURNAL TIMING OF THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. THE BEST FORCED ASCENT NECESSARY FOR ANY
STRONGER STORMS WL EXIST ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4
CORRIDOR...WHEREAS THE BEST SB INSTABILITY WILL EXIST SOUTH OF THAT
AREA WHERE LOWER CLOUD COVER IS IN PLACE. LTST HRRR GUID INDICATES
DEVELOPMENT SCT STORMS MOVING INTO ECFL UNIFORMLY FROM THE WEST FROM
AROUND 2PM THROUGH DUSK. NOT SURE IF THE MAIN SIGNAL IS A DIURNAL
ONE OR IF IS DIRECTLY ASCD WITH THE APCHG DISTURBANCE. EXISTING WIND
FIELDS ALOFT WL INCREASE...THUS LEADING TO A SPC ADVERTISED SLIGHT
RISK OF DMG WINDS IN SOME OF THE STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS...
MAINLY FROM LAKE KISSIMMEE TO COCOA NORTHWARD. A THREAT OF LOCALLY
STRONG STORMS WILL EXIST AREAWIDE AS WELL FROM MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON.

WILL MAKE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POP AND WX GRIDS FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT A STEADY INCREASE IN PCPN AND STORM COVERAGE FROM
THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED
AMENDMENTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION AND INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY DEVELOP VRB SWD...BUT REMAINED
CLOSE TO THE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...(PREV DISC) SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND WILL LIKELY
STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...UP TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY OVER THE OPEN OUTER WATERS. GIVEN THE OFFSHORE
FLOW AND LIMITED FETCH...SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BETWEEN 2 TO 3
FEET...UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD REMAINS
LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS FROM THE MAINLAND. MARINERS SHOULD FOLLOW THE LATEST
OUTLOOKS AS THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE ISSUANCE OF MARINE WARNINGS.

&&

$$

JP/RW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 753 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN H85 JET TODAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCE INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WITH H85 WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE EAST PART. HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR APPEARS GREATEST EARLY TODAY AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S AROUND -3. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. DRYING WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
EARLY BUT WEAK TROUGHING DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF
WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING CAE/CUB. MVFR CIGS THIS
MORNING...LIFTING TO VFR BY MIDDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ATTM. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20
MPH BETWEEN 14Z AND 13/00Z. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES
13/02Z-13/05Z WITH CONVECTION ENDING AND WINDS SHIFTING NORTHWEST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 629 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN H85 JET TODAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCE INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WITH H85 WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE EAST PART. HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR APPEARS GREATEST EARLY TODAY AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S AROUND -3. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. DRYING WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
EARLY BUT WEAK TROUGHING DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF
WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF
MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH MOST OF THE RAIN
CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD AGS/DNL/OGB. EXPECT SHOWERS TO ENTER THE
TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE UPDATE THE TAFS TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THE
SHOWERS. POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
ATTM. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20 MPH BETWEEN 14Z AND 13/00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 422 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN H85 JET TODAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCE INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WITH H85 WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE EAST PART. HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR APPEARS GREATEST EARLY TODAY AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S AROUND -3. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. DRYING WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS
FOR THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY. MIXING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
EARLY BUT WEAK TROUGHING DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF
WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR
INDICATES MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE
TAF SITES IS CURRENTLY LOW SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM THE TAFS
AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE BRIEF. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT PREVENTING FOG...THEN INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z AND 13/00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

 357 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE BEHIND THE
FRONT SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. THE HRRR DISPLAYS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT MAINLY IN THE EAST PART ASSOCIATED WITH AN H85 JET TODAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT AND COOLING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH SUPPORTS A CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCE INTO THE EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR. THE MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT SHEAR
WITH H85 WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN THE EAST PART. HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR APPEARS GREATEST EARLY TODAY AND CLOUDINESS SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY. THE NAM DISPLAYS WEAK INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE-BASED
LI/S AROUND -3. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IS LOW. DRYING WILL
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. MIXING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT FAVORS THE WARMER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE DRY AIR MASS MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL DOMINATE
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE WITH
HIGHS SUNDAY MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. THESE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE COOLEST
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SINCE MAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE RIDGING IN THE ATLANTIC
WITH A LONG-FETCH EASTERLY FLOW INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
REST OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. THE MODELS SHOW UPPER RIDGING
EARLY BUT WEAK TROUGHING DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF
WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE SHIFTING DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY. USED AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF MOS FOR THE POP FORECAST. THE MOS INDICATES BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES MOVING EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION AND
WILL CROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. REGIONAL RADAR
INDICATES MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH MID LEVEL
CLOUDS BLANKETING THE AREA. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS IMPACTING THE
TAF SITES IS CURRENTLY LOW SO HAVE REMOVED MENTION FROM THE TAFS
AND WILL UPDATE AS CONFIDENCE IMPROVES. EXPECT ANY RESTRICTIONS IN
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE BRIEF. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 5
KNOTS OVERNIGHT PREVENTING FOG...THEN INCREASE TO 10 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BETWEEN 14Z AND 13/00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

&&

$$
99



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

 240 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015

Vorticity maximum centered between Springfield and Decatur this
afternoon per water vapor imagery, within the deep upper trough that
covers much of the Midwest. RAP guidance shows a cold pocket of 500
mb temps near -24C just south of this, which has helped feed the
scattered showers that have formed over east central and southeast
Illinois. Drier air in the lower levels have resulted in a bit of
small hail accompanying the heavier showers. Other showers near
Champaign have been tracking south-southwest off Lake Michigan with
more behind them, although wind trajectories are starting to turn
more northerly and the lake feed should shift more to along the
Indiana border. The diurnal cloudiness is fading some across the far
northern CWA, and should rapidly dissipate over the forecast area by
sunset, with mostly clear conditions prevailing overnight. Still
looks to be a cool night, with temperatures falling into the mid
40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015

Morning upper air and moisture channel data depicts deep upper level
over Great Lakes into sotheast MO. Series of weak vort maxes/lobes
in the mid MS river valley rotating through the bottom of the trof,
with main max near Quad Cities moving SSE. With ample low level
moisture, and cold air aloft, scattered showers over the eastern
portions of cwa today, lingering into evening.

Models drift the upper trof to the east into Sunday, allowing
warming low and mid level flow to begin to work into state. Upper
ridge begins to build toward area and slow warming trend into
midweek.

In the extended period, models have agreed a bit more on slowing of
the approaching next frontal system. System approaches now Friday,
with pops delayed into Thursday night, with better chances for rain
Friday and Friday night with front, on the latest run. A bit cooler
with the increased cloud cover with front. Exact details on frontal
passage still somewhat hazy.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015

Little change needed to previous TAF set. Large field of diurnal
clouds sinking southward. Had some brief MVFR conditions as they
developed, but heights have risen recently. Skies will be clearing
from north to south this afternoon, and areas near KPIA/KBMI will
scatter out by mid afternoon. Have left the VCSH mention in due
to an upper low overhead, with the best chances of showers near
KCMI. Gusty north winds will diminish with sunset, and gradually
trend to the west/southwest overnight.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Geelhart



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 240 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

UPPER LOW IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT PRECIP
HAS LARGELY STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TOUCH OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH 14Z TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AND COMBINED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND WRF GUIDANCE HAS NICE
HANDLE ON EXPECTATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH GREATEST
PRECIP COVERAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH HIGHS REMAINING
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE AN EVEN COOLER FALL-LIKE FEEL. ZONE AND GRID
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO USE A BLEND.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUDS OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH...SO WENT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT MOST AREAS.

AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
/THANKS TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE
SURFACE/...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES AS THESE REFLECT THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WELL. AFTERWARD
A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

ISSUED AT 239 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY WEATHER OVER THE
AREA. THE SURFACE HIGH MOVING TO THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR WARM
ADVECTION OVER THE AREA...AND HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S CAN BE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED
AND THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR A COLD FRONT AND A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA AND PROMPT CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT THESE COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE SITES AND
DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BUT CANNOT HIT ON A PARTICULAR TIME OR
PLACE AND THINK THE IMPACT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. MIGHT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KHUF AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE VCSH GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING SHOULD SEE CEILINGS START TO SCATTER OUT. COULD BE SOME
BRIEF FOG/MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR WINDS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15-22 KTS ESPECIALLY
OVER KIND AND KLAF. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHNORTHEAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...CP



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 102 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

UPPER LOW IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT PRECIP
HAS LARGELY STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TOUCH OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH 14Z TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AND COMBINED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND WRF GUIDANCE HAS NICE
HANDLE ON EXPECTATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH GREATEST
PRECIP COVERAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH HIGHS REMAINING
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE AN EVEN COOLER FALL-LIKE FEEL. ZONE AND GRID
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO USE A BLEND.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUDS OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH...SO WENT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT MOST AREAS.

AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
/THANKS TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE
SURFACE/...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES AS THESE REFLECT THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WELL. AFTERWARD
A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ARRIVAL OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SYSTEMS TO
THE WEST. THUS REMOVED POPS FOR THURSDAY AND WENT DRY.

UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT LATE NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR 121800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1254 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP AROUND THE TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THAT THESE COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE SITES AND
DROP CONDITIONS TO MVFR/IFR BUT CANNOT HIT ON A PARTICULAR TIME OR
PLACE AND THINK THE IMPACT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED. MIGHT BE CLOSE
ENOUGH TO KHUF AT THIS POINT TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP...BUT
OTHERWISE WILL LEAVE VCSH GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
EVENING SHOULD SEE CEILINGS START TO SCATTER OUT. COULD BE SOME
BRIEF FOG/MVFR CEILINGS DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

FOR WINDS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15-22 KTS ESPECIALLY
OVER KIND AND KLAF. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHNORTHEAST.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...CP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1018 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

UPPER LOW IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT PRECIP
HAS LARGELY STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TOUCH OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH 14Z TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AND COMBINED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND WRF GUIDANCE HAS NICE
HANDLE ON EXPECTATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH GREATEST
PRECIP COVERAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH HIGHS REMAINING
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE AN EVEN COOLER FALL-LIKE FEEL. ZONE AND GRID
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO USE A BLEND.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUDS OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH...SO WENT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT MOST AREAS.

AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
/THANKS TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE
SURFACE/...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES AS THESE REFLECT THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WELL. AFTERWARD
A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ARRIVAL OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SYSTEMS TO
THE WEST. THUS REMOVED POPS FOR THURSDAY AND WENT DRY.

UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT LATE NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121500Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1018 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS TODAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...BUT RANDOM NATURE OF SHOWERS AND COVERAGE EXPECTED
WARRANT ONLY A VCSH MENTION AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT. CANNOT ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50/CP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN AND BRING DRY AND WARMING
CONDITIONS THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR RAIN AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

UPPER LOW IN THE PROCESS OF CLOSING OFF OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH OFF LAKE MICHIGAN BUT PRECIP
HAS LARGELY STAYED OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA SO FAR THIS MORNING.
TOUCH OF FALL IN THE AIR WITH 14Z TEMPS PRIMARILY IN THE 50S.

FORECAST IN VERY GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. COLD POOL ALOFT WILL SETTLE OVER CENTRAL
INDIANA TODAY AND COMBINED WITH THE FORCING ALOFT AND STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES...EXPECT CU TO FILL IN AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR AND WRF GUIDANCE HAS NICE
HANDLE ON EXPECTATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...WITH GREATEST
PRECIP COVERAGE MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
UPPER ENERGY THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
REMAINS VERY WEAK AND LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY
LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS WITH HIGHS REMAINING
PRIMARILY IN THE LOWER AND MID 60S. GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH THIS
AFTERNOON WILL GIVE AN EVEN COOLER FALL-LIKE FEEL. ZONE AND GRID
UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

FOCUS IS ON SKY COVER EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO USE A BLEND.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE AWAY FROM CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT
ALLOWING SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS. STILL LOOKS TO BE SOME CLOUDS OFF
OF LAKE MICHIGAN THOUGH...SO WENT PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT MOST AREAS.

AS WARMER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT SUNDAY ALONG WITH MORE SUBSIDENCE
/THANKS TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN AT THE
SURFACE/...CLOUDS WILL DECREASE.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT
TERM...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WENT WITH A BLEND OF RAW MODEL
TEMPERATURES AS THESE REFLECT THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER WELL. AFTERWARD
A BLEND OF MOS LOOKS GOOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

MODELS ARE CLOSE ENOUGH THAT THE SUPERBLEND INITIALIZATION WAS
ACCEPTED FOR MOST ITEMS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MODELS HAVE SLOWED ARRIVAL OF RAIN LATER IN THE WEEK...AND
THIS LOOKS REASONABLE WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SYSTEMS TO
THE WEST. THUS REMOVED POPS FOR THURSDAY AND WENT DRY.

UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN OUT LATE NEXT WEEK AND ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE IN. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 121200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS TODAY...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP/INCREASE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS
FEATURE AS WELL...BUT RANDOM NATURE OF SHOWERS AND COVERAGE EXPECTED
WARRANT ONLY A VCSH MENTION AT THE TAF LOCATIONS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.

SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND CEILINGS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY EARLY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CANNOT
ABSOLUTELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...50




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

Surface high pressure has shifted off to the east while a lee low
has deepened across eastern Colorado today. This has resulted in an
increasing pressure gradient across the local area which should
continue to increase into Monday. The low level jet will also
intensify overnight with 50-60 kts expected around 1500 feet AGL.
These features will lead to continued gusty winds this afternoon, a
10+ mph breeze and occasional gusts through the night, and then wind
gusts to 30 mph or stronger late Monday morning through the
afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will also be a few degrees warmer
with deep mixing and some warm advection, ranging from the middle
80s east to near 90 in central KS.

The past two nights have featured isolated to scattered showers
developing overnight and persisting through late morning along a
very tight axis of mid-level isentropic ascent. It appears that this
feature may develop once again tonight, although slightly farther to
the east. Development is a bit in question and coverage should
remain isolated to perhaps scattered, but there is a bit better
chance for a few thunderstorms to mix in with the showers as the
MUCAPE looks to have a better chance to support deep convection. Any
activity that does develop should shift east of the area and weaken
by mid morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

Both Tuesday and Wednesday morning the models are suggesting several
weak shortwaves embedded within the southwest flow aloft along with
weak isentropic. This may be enough lift to generate isolated to
scattered showers during the early morning hours. Soundings show
decent dry low-level air in place, which may prevent most precip
from reaching the ground resulting in mainly sprinkles. It also
shows limited instability that should keep the thunder rather
isolated. The better chances overall on Tuesday morning will be
across northeast KS, while Wednesday morning will be across north
central KS. On Thursday a shortwave tracking over southern Canada
and the northern plains will send a cold front into the forecast
area. Although this far south removed the wave there might not be
much forcing accompanying the front so precip chances are unclear.
Thursday night into Friday a mid-level trough should enhance the
large scale lift increase the chances for showers and storms. Final
more stronger wave will track across the northern US and push the
front south of the area on Saturday. Late weekend and early next
week the front will lift back northward as more shortwave activity
continues in the zonal to southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

Two concerns this evening, precip chances and potential LLWS. With
the warm air advection pattern persisting again this evening,
there remains the possibility for elevated storms. However
isentropic surfaces struggle to saturate a parcel from the lift
keeping condensation pressure deficits around 100 MB or higher.
So expect coverage to be isolated and will not add a mention of
precip at this time. As for LLWS, the NAM and RAP forecast
soundings keep a mixed boundary layer and strong pressure gradient
through the night. There are even hints of gusts persisting
through the night from the objective guidance. So while there will
likely be a 50KT low level jet between 2 and 3 KFT, there is not
expected to be a strong discontinuity in speed or directional
shear. Will monitor trends to make sure the boundary layer remains
coupled with the stronger winds aloft, but LLWS looks to be
unlikely at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 1048 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM CAPE COD INTO EASTERN ME OVERNIGHT AND
BRINGS RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...JUST AN UPDATE TO POP AND QPF FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR DATA. HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS IS
FROM NEAR MANCHESTER TO LITTLETON NH AS OF 1045 PM. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THE LINE WILL SWEEP NORTHEASTWARD RATHER QUICKLY...WITH THE
RAIN ENDING BEHIND IT. THE NORTHERN END OF THE LINE NEAR THE CT
RIVER IN GRAFTON COUNTY NH WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE DUE TO THE FLOW
AROUND DIGGING UPPER LOW. THEREFORE...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE MOST LIKELY IN THIS NORTHERN AREA. SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE.

930 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR AND HRRR DATA. BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH. KLEB HAS HAD ABOUT 0.8
INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND SHOULD EASILY ECLIPSE AN INCH.
THIS BAND SHOULD EVENTUALLY START SWEEPING NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ON
IN. LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS POSSIBLE.

750 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND QPF TO ADJUST FOR LATEST
TRENDS IN DATA. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS WITH CONVECTIVE RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CT
VALLEY TIED TO THE DEEPENING AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP 2+ INCHES DUE TO
CONVECTIVE TRAINING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

530 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS WELL AS LATEST
HRRR AND NAM DATA. MOST MODELS SHOW THAT LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE GULF STREAM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND
09Z ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLD THUNDER. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
100 PERCENT PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE AND BOOSTED QPF SOME.

PREVIOUSLY...

ONE SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS
ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OUT OF UPSTATE NY. ENERGY AT 500MB ROTATING
AROUND CLOSED LOW WILL GIVE THE LOW A NEG TILT AND CAUSE SFC LOW
TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG MID-LVL DEFORMATION WILL ALSO HELP WITH FORCING AND THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME LOOKS
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST OF PRECIP...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM SW-NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BASIN AVG QPF IS
IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE...BUT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. LOWS DROP IN THE LOW 50S N...TO UPPER 50S
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
500MB CLOSED LOW...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CROSSES THE CWA ON
MONDAY AND SHOULD SET OFF SHRA IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHRA OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND
SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER..THE
MTNS LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHRA THRU THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE N...TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR SRN NH. IT WILL ALSO ON THE BREEZY
SIDE AS THAT SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES...WITH W WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.

CWA WILL SIT BENEATH NW FLOW AT 500MB MON NIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO START BUILDING IN. SO SKIES WILL GRADUAL CLEAR AND
WIND DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50-55
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD... WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL BRIEFLY DROP SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
CLOUDS...IT SHOULD BE A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVER THE PAST DAY...MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED REGARDING THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ITS ARRIVAL
NEXT WEEKEND. THE SLOWER ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR
NOW...WITH A WARM DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DRIVES AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED IN RAIN/FOG/STRATUS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL MON MORNING FOR MVFR-VFR CONDS...AND VFR LOOKS A GOOD BET BY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. EXCEPT OF COURSE FOR
THE USUAL VLY FOG.

LONG TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
REGION TO THE NE...AND WILL LIKELY TOUCH SCA LVLS BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

 930 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM CAPE COD INTO EASTERN ME OVERNIGHT AND
BRINGS RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GRADUAL WARMING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
930 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS IN
RADAR AND HRRR DATA. BAND OF HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY
SLOWLY ACROSS THE CT VALLEY REGION OF NH. KLEB HAS HAD ABOUT 0.8
INCHES IN THE LAST HOUR OR SO...AND SHOULD EASILY ECLIPSE AN INCH.
THIS BAND SHOULD EVENTUALLY START SWEEPING NORTHEASTWARD AND
AFFECT THE REST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS ON
IN. LOCAL FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS POSSIBLE.

750 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED POPS AND QPF TO ADJUST FOR LATEST
TRENDS IN DATA. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP NEAR SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS WITH CONVECTIVE RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CT
VALLEY TIED TO THE DEEPENING AND APPROACHING UPPER LOW. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP 2+ INCHES DUE TO
CONVECTIVE TRAINING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

530 PM UPDATE...HAVE UPDATED THE NEAR TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST
BASED ON LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONAL DATA AS WELL AS LATEST
HRRR AND NAM DATA. MOST MODELS SHOW THAT LONG PLUME OF MOISTURE
EMANATING FROM THE GULF STREAM OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AS SFC CYCLOGENESIS TAKES PLACE JUST TO OUR SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND
09Z ACROSS THE REGION WITH ISOLD THUNDER. HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO
100 PERCENT PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE AND BOOSTED QPF SOME.

PREVIOUSLY...

ONE SFC LOW DEVELOPING NEAR LONG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS
ANOTHER LOW TRACKS NE OUT OF UPSTATE NY. ENERGY AT 500MB ROTATING
AROUND CLOSED LOW WILL GIVE THE LOW A NEG TILT AND CAUSE SFC LOW
TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY TONIGHT AS IT TRACKS NE ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND.
STRONG MID-LVL DEFORMATION WILL ALSO HELP WITH FORCING AND THIS
SHOULD PRODUCE A ROUND OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
CONVECTION...TONIGHT ACROSS THE CWA. THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME LOOKS
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THE HEAVIEST OF PRECIP...WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
TAPER OFF FROM SW-NE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. BASIN AVG QPF IS
IN THE HALF TO ONE INCH RANGE...BUT DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF
CONVECTION COULD SEE LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS. WEST WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND SHOULD SEE SOME CLEARING IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WELL. LOWS DROP IN THE LOW 50S N...TO UPPER 50S
S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
500MB CLOSED LOW...AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL CROSSES THE CWA ON
MONDAY AND SHOULD SET OFF SHRA IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS...AND BRING SOME MORE CLOUDS CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE
DOWNSLOPE SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE SHRA OFF THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND
SHOULD SEE PARTLY SUNNY CONDS IN THIS AREA AS WELL. HOWEVER..THE
MTNS LOOK MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHRA THRU THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S IN THE N...TO THE LOWER 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND IN INTERIOR SRN NH. IT WILL ALSO ON THE BREEZY
SIDE AS THAT SFC LOW DEEPENS OVER THE MARITIMES...WITH W WINDS
GUSTING TO 20-25 MPH AT TIMES.

CWA WILL SIT BENEATH NW FLOW AT 500MB MON NIGHT...AND SFC HIGH
WILL BEGIN TO START BUILDING IN. SO SKIES WILL GRADUAL CLEAR AND
WIND DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50-55
RANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS OUT AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD... WITH RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT TO TAKE
HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL BRIEFLY DROP SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MAINE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW
CLOUDS...IT SHOULD BE A MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY PERIOD WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. OVER THE PAST DAY...MODELS HAVE
DIVERGED REGARDING THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ITS ARRIVAL
NEXT WEEKEND. THE SLOWER ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED FOR
NOW...WITH A WARM DRY START TO NEXT WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DRIVES AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...IFR OR LOWER EXPECTED IN RAIN/FOG/STRATUS THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE BIT OF IMPROVEMENT
TOWARD DAYBREAK AS WIND SHIFT TO THE WEST...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT
UNTIL MON MORNING FOR MVFR-VFR CONDS...AND VFR LOOKS A GOOD BET BY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE INTO MON NIGHT. EXCEPT OF COURSE FOR
THE USUAL VLY FOG.

LONG TERM...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER RELATED IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS THE
REGION TO THE NE...AND WILL LIKELY TOUCH SCA LVLS BRIEFLY LATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY MONDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT THRESHOLD
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ150-
     152.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO NOON EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ154.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM UPDATE...EKSTER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 151 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP US IN A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES FURTHER
WEST WHERE SOME DRY AIR HAS ENCROACHED IN THE MID LEVELS. BOTH THE
NAM AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS OVER OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL IN AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. OPTED TO CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
FOR THIS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS ANY LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND 850HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD 3C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. TONIGHTS LOWS WERE CONSTRUCTED
FROM MAV/MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...SO SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIP PROBS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY BY MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE/RISING HEIGHTS/INSOLATION WILL ALL SUPPORT A RAPID
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST BY LATE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR AND SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE DUE TO BOTH RESTRICTED
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS.   DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED OVER THE REGION.
UPPER TROUGH TO KEEP STRATOCU OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING
HOURS SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PITTSBURGH PA

 1204 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP US IN A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
BULK OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS NOW EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CONTINUES FURTHER
WEST WHERE SOME DRY AIR HAS ENCROACHED IN THE MID LEVELS. BOTH THE
NAM AND THE HRRR SUGGEST THAT THE SHOWERS OVER OHIO WILL CONTINUE
TO FILL IN AS THE SURFACE LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST. OPTED TO CARRY
HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
FOR THIS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...AS WELL AS ANY LAKE ENHANCED
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP IN THE COOL NW FLOW ALOFT.

CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND 850HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD 3C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. TONIGHTS LOWS WERE CONSTRUCTED
FROM MAV/MET VALUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS UNDER THE ENCROACHING HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS...SO SLIGHT TO CHANCE PRECIP PROBS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY. LITTLE ADJUSTMENT WAS NEEDED FOR
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST...ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY BY MONDAY.
SUBSIDENCE/RISING HEIGHTS/INSOLATION WILL ALL SUPPORT A RAPID
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO...AND THEN ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY
THE END OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST BY LATE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE SURFACE LOW/CDFNT EXITS...THOUGH UPPER TROUGHING SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 739 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS...ONLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WAA IN SW FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WARMEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

ALL 12Z MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY UNDER RISING 5H RIDGE
HEIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS GENERATES PCPN OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE MID-UPR RIDGE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH. LOOKING AT
THE GFS BUFR SNDGS AT KIWD IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE ANY PCPN BEING
SQUEEZED OUT OF SO DRY A SOUNDING PROFILE. ALSO...ALL THE POSITIVE
AREA (370 J/KG CAPE) IS ABOVE 650 MB AND THERE IS A 14C CAP AT 775
MB WITH OVER 250 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT AND KEEP A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA.

WITH 16 TO 19C 8H TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF THE CWA WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. INLAND TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (MID 70S) WITH SOME MODERATION IN SW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL ONLY BE AROUND
70F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

LATE SUMMER WARMTH IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR THU-FRI AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE STILL
HINTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
SW UPPER FLOW ALOFT. UPPER WAVES ARE LACKING FOR MOISTURE THOUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE INTERVALS OF MID CLOUDS 15-20 KFT
BUT IT STAYS VERY DRY BLO THAT CLOUD BASE. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WITH SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SUPPOSE
THERE COULD BE THICKER MID CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES. BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
WEST ESPECIALLY AS H85 JET VEERS SW AND BECOMES AIMED AT UPPER LAKES
WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. H85 JET AND CONVERGENCE WOULD
INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO TRIGGER THE SHRA/TSRA.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING THROUGH WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
WEAKER WAVES ON MON AND TUE. OVERALL...SEEMS THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE WEST
AND FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LK SUPERIOR.
LATER ON WED...SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK SLIM AS
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST...GREATEST MLCAPES TOWARD
1000J/KG REMAIN OVER NEB/IA INTO MN.

LATE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PROBABLY ENDS UP BEING THE MAIN STORY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE READINGS INTO THE 80S IN MID
SEPTEMBER AS RECORDS FOR 14-16 SEPT ARE STILL IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FOR THIS WEEK...BASED ON H85 TEMPS OF AT
LEAST 16 ON TUE AND 18-20C WED AND THU...SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE. NEED DEEPER MIXING TO
SEE THAT DEGREE OF WARMTH THOUGH AND ANY SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUDS WILL
DAMPEN THAT POTENTIAL. EVEN SO THOUGH...STEADY AND GUSTY AT TIMES S
TO SW WINDS IN TIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN TROUGH OVER PLAINS AND
RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN MINIMAL LAKE MODIFICATION AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE AND WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR
FM WEST ACROSS KEWEENAW TO NORTH CENTRAL TO SEE WARMEST TEMPS. EVEN
WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH DWPNTS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MOST HUMID DAY WOULD BE ON THU WITH DWPNTS INTO
THE 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CONCERNING THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING OF FROPA THU/FRI BUT THAT IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR BEING THAT
FAR OUT. GFS IS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO A USUAL BIAS.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVEN ON THE GFS WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...GOING TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ITS FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALSO
SINCE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH FRONT STILL CLOSE BY...LIKE THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT OUT
AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. WILL TREND THAT
WAY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS IDEA WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEM-
NH IS A NOTEABLE SLOWER TREND AS 24 HR AGO BOTH OF THESE MODELS
SHOWED FRONT/QPF MAINLY EAST OF CWA FOR FRIDAY. MUCAPES 0-3KM 1000-
2000J/KG AND SW LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS
TSRA TOO. SHEAR IS STRONGEST THU NIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WHICH IS
PROBABLY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
REGION. PWATS OVER 1.50 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.

LATEST GEM-NH SUGGESTS LINGERING SHRA ON SATURDAY...BUT EVEN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT SOLN POINTS TO MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY. KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS BUT REMOVED POPS IN THE AFTN. REST OF WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

UNDER DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES GRADIENT AND
DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30 KT S TO SW
WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUE THRU WED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 1102 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS TODAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LINDA WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION:

THE SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED THIS MORNING. SPC MESOANALYSIS...SATELLITE TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE PROVIDING MORE INSIGHT INTO HOW
THINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUN AND
DESTABIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO
BARSTOW AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.0-1.5 IN THAT AREA. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SO...THIS MEANS WE EXPECT TO GET GOOD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE SOUTH PART OF
THE CWA...WE WOULD EXPECT MORE LOW BASED RAIN PRODUCERS. WHILE
FURTHER NORTH (OVER LAS VEGAS...KINGMAN AND LAUGHLIN AREAS) WE WOULD
EXPECT HIGHER-BASED STORMS WITH LESS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
DOWNDRAFTS. DCAPE VALUES FROM THE MESOANAYSIS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
WELL.

CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE HRRR SPECIFICALLY IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 20UTC IN A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO RIDGECREST, CA AND
ALSO OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY NEAR YUCCA VALLEY
AND TWENTYNINE PALMS. LAS VEGAS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF ACTIVITY. LAUGHLIN...KINGMAN...BAKER...BARSTOW AND
TWENTYNINE PALMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE
EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...WITH
SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLAS TODAY. MOISTURE AND
CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AND LOWERED CIGS TO 7-8K FEET WILL INCREASE
SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLAS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF
FU AND HZ ARE POSSIBLE IN AROUND KBIH REDUCING VSBY AND CREATING
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AND
LOWERED CIGS OF 5-10K FEET WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015/

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...A VERY SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
CAP...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM...ALLOWING ISOLATED STORMS TO MOVE INTO
NEARBY VALLEY LOCATIONS. ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY LOW-GRADE MOISTURE
LEVELS TO WORK WITH...THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY STORMS TODAY WILL
MAINLY BE WIND-RELATED. STORMS WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE LINDA WILL EJECT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO BE A VIABLE PLAYER IN THE POTENTIAL OUTCOME FOR SUNDAY...AS TOO
MUCH WILL MITIGATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS NOTED THAT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE BEEN QUICKER IN TRAVERSING
THE BAND OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTING THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
PROGGED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL QUICKLY INTRUDE THE WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIMITING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN INYO
COUNTIES SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GREATLY LIMITED ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN POSITIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TONIGHTS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
SET WITH 12Z GUIDANCE IN CONTINUING TO SPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA DEPICT A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL CAP DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS DRY MID-LEVEL
INTRUSION...WITH THE STRONGEST INVERSIONS PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOCALES. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES DEPICT LESS OF A CAP...MAKING THESE AREAS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP PRECIPITATION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE VITAL TO THE OUTCOME ON MONDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT 00Z GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE LIMITED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKLY CAPPED AREAS...AS WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LINCOLN...CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL 4-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY...REACHING SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGHER
GRADE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF FORMER HURRICANE LINDA
WILL BE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION (INSTEAD OF OUT TO SEA AS SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWED JUST 24 HOURS AGO) BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SIZE OF THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
(PWATS NEAR THE CORE LOOK TO APPROACH 1.7 INCHES)...THEREFORE THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BECOME CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFERENCES AT THIS STAGE WILL KEEP
CONFIDENCE MODERATE. THAT SAID...I DID MAKE A SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO AREAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS ADDING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR TUESDAY. I LIMITED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
FOR MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIMITED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY DEPICTED
WITH THIS SLUG AS IT MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 30-50KTS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER OR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS IF THINGS DESTABILIZE DECENTLY.

AGAIN BY ROUGHLY 18Z WEDNESDAY THIS SLUG OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
BE RAPIDLY EXITING THE AREA...AND HAVE LEFT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING...CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AREA WIDE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...OF NOT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

&&

$$

UPDATE: LERICOS
SHORT TERM/AVIATION: WOLCOTT/PULLIN
LONG TERM: PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 900 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.UPDATE...MESOSCALE DISCUSSION:

THE SETUP FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED THIS MORNING. SPC MESOANALYSIS...SATELLITE TRENDS AND
CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS ARE PROVIDING MORE INSIGHT INTO HOW
THINGS WILL DEVELOP.

CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE SUN AND
DESTABIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AS WE HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MUCH
OF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO
BARSTOW AS EVIDENCED BY DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.0-1.5 IN THAT AREA. UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATE SOME STEEP MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES (7-8 C/KM) ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.
SO...THIS MEANS WE EXPECT TO GET GOOD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUNSHINE DESTABILIZES THE
LOWER LEVELS ENOUGH TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE UNSTABLE MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES.

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE PREVALENT IN THE SOUTH PART OF
THE CWA...WE WOULD EXPECT MORE LOW BASED RAIN PRODUCERS. WHILE
FURTHER NORTH (OVER LAS VEGAS...KINGMAN AND LAUGHLIN AREAS) WE WOULD
EXPECT HIGHER-BASED STORMS WITH LESS RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS DUE TO
DOWNDRAFTS. DCAPE VALUES FROM THE MESOANAYSIS SUPPORT THIS IDEA AS
WELL.

CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS SEEM TO HINT AT A SIMILAR SCENARIO AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. THE HRRR SPECIFICALLY IS GENERATING THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 20UTC IN A LINE FROM KINGMAN TO RIDGECREST, CA AND
ALSO OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY NEAR YUCCA VALLEY
AND TWENTYNINE PALMS. LAS VEGAS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF ACTIVITY. LAUGHLIN...KINGMAN...BAKER...BARSTOW AND
TWENTYNINE PALMS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015/

.SYNOPSIS...SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS TODAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE LINDA WILL BRING MORE
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...SHOWER ACTIVITY...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

FOR TODAY...A VERY SLIGHT UPTICK IN CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE
CAP...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF LAS VEGAS. BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BECOME THE
DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM...ALLOWING ISOLATED STORMS TO MOVE INTO
NEARBY VALLEY LOCATIONS. ONCE AGAIN WITH ONLY LOW-GRADE MOISTURE
LEVELS TO WORK WITH...THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM ANY STORMS TODAY WILL
MAINLY BE WIND-RELATED. STORMS WILL AGAIN TAPER OFF AROUND SUNSET
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING.

SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF FORMER
HURRICANE LINDA WILL EJECT ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS WITH 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD
MOHAVE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES AS THE MOST FAVORED AREAS FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE...CLOUD COVER CONTINUES
TO BE A VIABLE PLAYER IN THE POTENTIAL OUTCOME FOR SUNDAY...AS TOO
MUCH WILL MITIGATE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. IT IS NOTED THAT THE PAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM HAVE BEEN QUICKER IN TRAVERSING
THE BAND OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SUPPORTING THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
PROGGED BY 00Z GUIDANCE. IT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY THAT DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR WILL QUICKLY INTRUDE THE WESTERN ZONES BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...LEADING TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND LIMITING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SAN BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN INYO
COUNTIES SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE GREATLY LIMITED ACROSS
THESE AREAS AND FAVORED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN POSITIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TONIGHTS
FORECAST PACKAGE.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH TRENDS
SET WITH 12Z GUIDANCE IN CONTINUING TO SPREAD THE AFOREMENTIONED
DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND LIMITING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY. NAM AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA DEPICT A RATHER
SUBSTANTIAL CAP DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO THIS DRY MID-LEVEL
INTRUSION...WITH THE STRONGEST INVERSIONS PROGGED ACROSS SOUTHERN
LOCALES. LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES DEPICT LESS OF A CAP...MAKING THESE AREAS MORE FAVORABLE
FOR SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE DOES DEVELOP PRECIPITATION BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...IN RESPONSE TO A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE TIMING OF
THIS FEATURE WILL BE VITAL TO THE OUTCOME ON MONDAY. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT 00Z GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE
REGARDING THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE...THEREFORE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TONIGHT WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE LIMITED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED WEAKLY CAPPED AREAS...AS WELL AS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF LINCOLN...CLARK AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO COOL 4-5 DEGREES EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY...REACHING SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR MID-SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

BY TUESDAY...MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT HIGHER
GRADE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF FORMER HURRICANE LINDA
WILL BE PUSHED ACROSS THE REGION (INSTEAD OF OUT TO SEA AS SOME
GUIDANCE SHOWED JUST 24 HOURS AGO) BETWEEN 12Z TUESDAY AND 18Z
WEDNESDAY. THE SIZE OF THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE IS LIKELY TO BE
RELATIVELY SMALL...BUT THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE COULD BE SUBSTANTIAL
(PWATS NEAR THE CORE LOOK TO APPROACH 1.7 INCHES)...THEREFORE THE
EXACT TRACK AND TIMING BECOME CRITICAL TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFERENCES AT THIS STAGE WILL KEEP
CONFIDENCE MODERATE. THAT SAID...I DID MAKE A SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO AREAL PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE MAIN CHANGE WAS ADDING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY FOR TUESDAY. I LIMITED THE CHANCES FOR THUNDER
FOR MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK COUNTIES TO A SLIGHT CHANCE
BASED ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF LIMITED INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY DEPICTED
WITH THIS SLUG AS IT MOVES ACROSS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE AMOUNT OF
AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WHICH WILL RANGE FROM 30-50KTS ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER OR MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS IF THINGS DESTABILIZE DECENTLY.

AGAIN BY ROUGHLY 18Z WEDNESDAY THIS SLUG OF ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD
BE RAPIDLY EXITING THE AREA...AND HAVE LEFT IN ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. BY THE EVENING...CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY TO BE RELATIVELY DRY AREA WIDE.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY EXPECT ZONAL FLOW OR WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SHOULD KEEP THINGS RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK...OF NOT OCCASIONALLY BREEZY.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB FROM A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...OUTSIDE OF ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LIGHT
WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 8 KTS FAVORING AN EASTERLY DIRECTION ARE
EXPECTED LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
WILL PICK UP THIS EVENING...WITH SPEEDS OF 8-12 KTS POSSIBLE BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE MAINLY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
OF KLAS TODAY. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AND LOWERED CIGS
TO 7-8K FEET WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND LAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...PRIMARILY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF KLAS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF
FU AND HZ ARE POSSIBLE IN AROUND KBIH REDUCING VSBY AND CREATING
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AND
LOWERED CIGS OF 5-10K FEET WILL INCREASE SUNDAY AND LAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&

&&

$$

UPDATE: LERICOS
SHORT TERM: WOLCOTT/PULLIN
LONG TERM: PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1121 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER GREAT BASIN WITH DRY NW-NLY FLOW ALF.
MOIST LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS IN AREAS MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
BR PERSISTING UNTIL AROUND 12/16Z FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN OVER
THE ERN PLAINS. SOME MVFR CIGS MAY BLEED INTO THE RGV AFT 06Z ON
GAP WINDS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAF. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WHICH WAS TO HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS NE/E CENTRAL NM BEFORE
12Z...SO REMOVED FROM KLVS/KTCC TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY BELOW CANYONS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AREAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF ALBUQUERQUE MAY GUST UP
TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE POST-FRONTAL INVERSION OVER EASTERN NM IS HOLDING STRONG AND
CAPPING CHANCES AT RELEASING WHAT LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENCED BY SCATTERED WAVE
CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. FORCING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AND STRONG HEATING OVER CHAVES COUNTY IS PROVIDING
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY. A FEW MEAGER SHOWERS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH LITTLE
SUCCESS.

THE LATEST HRRR/RUC AND LOCAL WRF AGREE WITH THE SPC SSEO THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. THE 12Z GFS
WAS STILL VERY WET FOR THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT REMAINDER OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE DRY SIDE. THE 18Z NAM STILL SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING OVER THE EAST WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OTHER STORY HAS BEEN GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. THE 19Z HRRR HAS DELAYED THE PEAK WINDS FOR THE ABQ EAST
SIDE UNTIL BTWN 8PM AND 1AM...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
MET/MAV/ECS MOS GUIDANCE.

THIS WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY TRANQUIL AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ISOLD
STORMS RECYCLING UNDER THE H5 RIDGE CRESTING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CATRON COUNTY AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY OVER THE EAST THEN
BECOME HOT AGAIN BY SUNDAY WITH BETTER KATABATIC FLOW.

MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH MOISTURE DELIVERY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL COMPLEX UPPER FEATURES SHEAR EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WESTERN THIRD WILL STILL FAVOR ISOLATED STORMS...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE
EVEN DRIER. LEE TROUGHING INCREASING OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO TREND UP WITH HOT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED TRENDS TOWARD A WETTER PATTERN ARE ADVERTISED NOW BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING FEATURES
TO ANALYZE AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 700-500MB
LEVEL MOISTURE PATTERN HAS INDICATIONS OF A TAP TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS COULD BE AN INITIAL SIGN OF THE LONG ANTICIPATED
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET MORE COMMON WITH EL NINO IN THE SW CONUS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVED EARLIER THAN SCHEDULED TODAY
BRINGING STABLER AIR OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
DID BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL RECYCLE
ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO MIGRATE
IN THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES AND VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD
WHILE HUMIDITIES TREND DOWNWARD.

SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
WITH AN AXIS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG NEW MEXICOS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WHILE HUMIDITIES FALL. HIGH
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
40.

MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CENTRAL
AREAS...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE W COAST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTERACTING
WITH THIS MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING THE FLOW ALOFT FOR AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THESE DAYS. THE MONSOON PLUME
MAY WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF SOME DRIER AIR CAN GET
ENTRAINED IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY AND TUESDAYS SHORTWAVES AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO ON MONDAY...A LEE TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 908 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
RRV AND EAST. WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST ALG AND WEST OF A
CAVALIER-DEVILSLAKE-BISMARCK LINE. EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE DURING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL HELP PUSH
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CWA. A FAIRLY DECENT COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY. HOWEVER...THINK THAT A FEW MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND
HRRR KEEP THE FOG OUT AND THINK THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

BY TOMORROW...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...A SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND PICK UP...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS BREAKS OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
AND WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING THE SFC
TROUGH INTO THE CWA. SOME PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR AND TEMPS WILL GET
INTO THE 80S AGAIN. THE NAM HAS A FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH SOME 20-30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY TO COME BACK UP WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST. HAVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN INITIAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW LOOK
TO EJECT OUT ON WED NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN. MOST
MODELS SHOW THU AFTERNOON DRY ON THE ND SIDE...BUT GUIDANCE IS
HANGING ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE
FA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT THIS POINT GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN WHILE THE ECMWF IS...SO AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES. THEREAFTER FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU/FRI WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN THEN WARM UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

FAIR SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THELATE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT IN THE DVL BASIN...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GUST




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 623 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EARLY EVENING. GENERALLY FAIR
SKIES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL HELP PUSH
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CWA. A FAIRLY DECENT COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY. HOWEVER...THINK THAT A FEW MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND
HRRR KEEP THE FOG OUT AND THINK THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

BY TOMORROW...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...A SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND PICK UP...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS BREAKS OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
AND WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING THE SFC
TROUGH INTO THE CWA. SOME PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR AND TEMPS WILL GET
INTO THE 80S AGAIN. THE NAM HAS A FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH SOME 20-30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY TO COME BACK UP WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST. HAVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN INITIAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW LOOK
TO EJECT OUT ON WED NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN. MOST
MODELS SHOW THU AFTERNOON DRY ON THE ND SIDE...BUT GUIDANCE IS
HANGING ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE
FA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT THIS POINT GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN WHILE THE ECMWF IS...SO AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES. THEREAFTER FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU/FRI WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN THEN WARM UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

FAIR SKIES AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS... WITH WINDS DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THELATE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD... WITH WINDS TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
MIDNIGHT IN THE DVL BASIN...AND AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 710 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ERIE. CURRENT RADAR SHOW SOME SHRA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE EVENING
THEN THIS AREA OF SHRA SHOULD START SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FASTER. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH POPS TAPERING DOWN TO
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE SHORELINE BY MORNING.

THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES AROUND CLE BY LATE
EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. WILL STAY WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP TO
THE POINT OF GETTING ANYTHING OF NOTE TO THE GROUND THAT FAR WEST.

ELSEWHERE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU
SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 00Z.

THE CLEARED SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE THE LAKESHORE HOLDS UP IN A 50 TO 55
RANGE FROM CLEVELAND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS THE LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETS UP ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND LOTS OF SUN ON MONDAY
WILL BOOST HIGHS BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUING THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WEST OF MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE FRONT PUSHES EAST...DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW INTO
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REBOUND WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER INDIANA WILL DRIFT EAST AND BE
CENTERED OVER FORECAST AREA BY DAYBREAK MONDAY. CLOUDS IN THE WEST
WILL ERODE OVERNIGHT...WHILE IT WILL BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BEFORE
LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS END IN THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM LORAIN COUNTY EAST
THROUGH 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY OVER THE WEST AND
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE ADVISORY IN THE EAST ON MONDAY. WINDS FINALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ010>012-
     089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ145>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...DJB
MARINE...LOMBARDY




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 914 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE OHIO
VALLEY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND INTO PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA BY LATE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN BULK OF RAINFALL IS HEADED EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
SOME RESIDUAL CYCLONIC FLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM BACK OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. DECIDED BASED ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
THAT SOME FILLING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE AREA AND BRING BACK
MORE SHOWERS THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
SOME AREAS WILL MAINLY SEE DRIZZLE BUT KEPT IT ALL RAIN FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL HOLD PRETTY MUCH STEADY STATE
THROUGH THE DAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION TAKES PLACE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SHRA INTO SUN NIGHT
UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW. WINDS WILL CONTINUOUSLY
BACK SO THE BANDS OF LAKE EFFECT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM A NORTH TO
SOUTH ORIENTATION TO A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
ANY ONE SPOT FROM SEEING TOO MUCH RAIN AS THE FOCUS LOCATION SLOWLY
MOVES ENE UP THE LAKESHORE. TEMPS ON SUN WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL
WITH HIGHS MOSTLY FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND EAST TO 60 TO 65 WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SHIFTING FROM WV INTO PA MON INTO TUE SHOULD
BRING DRY CONDITIONS WITH WARMING TEMPS AS MORE SUNSHINE RETURNS AND
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN DURING THE PERIOD AS LONG
WAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF THE WESTERLIES WILL BUCKLE ON FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS
A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR WHICH INCREASES
CONFIDENCE. UNTIL THEN A RATHER PLEASANT LATE SUMMER PERIOD WITH
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED. HAVE USED WPC TEMPERATURES WITH
SLIGHT CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE POST FRONTAL RAIN HAS MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH
JUST A LITTLE LINGERING RAIN FROM NEAR CLE TO MFD WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FARTHER WEST. STILL EXPECT MORE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ALOFT MOVES INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH
INSTABILITY FROM WARM LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM SUBSIDENCE WILL
SUPPRESS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FOR A TIME BEFORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOP. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO MVFR EAST OF I-71.

SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT TOL AND FDY AS THE INFLUENCE OF
LAKE ERIE WILL BE MINIMAL.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR NE
OH AND NW PA IN SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
RATHER UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE
ERIE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CROSSED THE REGION. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS INCREASED ACROSS THE LAKE IN COMBINATION
WITH COLD AIR SPREADING SOUTHWARD. WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT AND STILL
RATHER WARM LAKE SURFACE OF 24 C...STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX
DOWN TO THE LAKE SURFACE AND PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT THE END OF THE FETCH WHICH IS ON THE
SOUTH SHORE OF THE LAKE. WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST
TODAY WITH SOME GRADUAL DECREASE TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
WILL LEAVE THE SCA IN AFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK...A
TRANQUIL PERIOD IS EXPECTED ON THE LAKE FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ007-
     009>012-089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ142>149.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...LOMBARDY
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...LAPLANTE
AVIATION...LAPLANTE
MARINE...LAPLANTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON WV

 901 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT EXITS EAST TODAY. UPPER LOW TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH
UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE JUST VERY MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS...BUT NO REAL CHANGES TO THE EXPECTED SENSIBLE WEATHER IN
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. COOLER AND DAMP SUMS IT UP. LOWERED POPS
SLIGHTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER COUNTIES...AND PUSHED FRONT TO THE
EAST BY AN HOUR OR TWO BY TRIMMING BACK POPS OVER EAST CENTRAL WV
A LITTLE EARLIER. OVERALL...THIS LEADS TO NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST PACKAGE. A CLOUDY AND DREARY DAY EXPECTED...AS PRECIP
COMES TO AN END ACROSS THE EAST...ON THE HEELS OF COLD FRONT
PASSAGE. LATEST RAP DRAPES A POST FRONTAL TROF AND COOL POOL
ALOFT...MAINLY ALIGNED ALONG THE OH RIVER...WITH FEATURE TRACKING
EAST BY EVENING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...THESE FEATURES
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF SPOTTY SHOWERS...AND THIS COVERED
WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING CHC POPS LATER TODAY...MORE FOCUSED
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AS WEAK WAVE MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPS FORECAST ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES MADE IN THE NEAR TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROF AXIS AND WEAK VORT WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION ON
SUNDAY. KEPT SLGT CHC AND CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST EARLY
SUNDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. TROF AXIS WILL CONTINUE
TO LIFT OUT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND ANY LEFT OVER SHOWERS
WILL END BY EARLY EVENING SUNDAY...IN THE WV MOUNTAINS. MUCH
COOLER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS WILL BE RATHER CHILLY DROPPING
DOWN INTO THE 40S OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND EVEN UPPER 30S IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OF WV.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY WITH COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOW BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT
WHICH WILL BE IN CONTROL WITH A PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EXPECT A WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH THE SUPER BLEND
AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WV MOUNTAINS...WITH SHOWERS ALONG AND
BEHIND IT. FOR THE MOST PART...VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN MVFR OR BETTER. HOWEVER...IFR CIGS ARE COMMON. EXPECT THOSE
TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. DRIZZLE AND SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY...INCLUDED VCSH DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT PLACEMENT AND
TIMING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS COULD BE LOWER IN
SHOWERS AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEDFORD OR

 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.DISCUSSION...12/12Z NAM/GFS IN.

THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE SOUTH
COAST SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE EXTREME
LOWER UMPQUA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE SOME
MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MEDFORD CWA...AND SOME CUMULUS
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP.

THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST. SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STABILITY INDICES SHOW SOME NEGATIVE
VALUES OVER THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
EAST SIDE...BUT THEY ARE TRENDING MORE STABLE. THERE WILL BE MORE
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.0
INCHES...BUT IT IS ALL ELEVATED. BASES WILL BE WAY UP IN THE 10-14
KFT MSL RANGE. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT CIN AND AT LEAST TWO
STABLE LAYERS IN THE SOUNDING PROFILES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
DEEMPHASIZE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANY THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE
WEST SIDE AND NEAR THE FRIDAY HIGHS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.

BY SUNDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES...CURVING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THAT`S WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE ACTION WILL BE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL
LOWER A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE STABLE LAYERS ARE STILL IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT. CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED...ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNDAY HIGHS
INLAND AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SATURDAY HIGHS.

A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE. INLAND MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD BUT THERE WON`T BE A LOT OF
IT IN ANY ONE LOCATION. INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST
AND SISKIYOUS NORTH...AND SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE. STABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY GET GOING IT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NO LONGER LOOK DRY...IT
WILL BE SHOWERY. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL...BOTTOMING OUT WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A VERY WET FRONT ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN POST- FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE. IT WILL
ALSO BE QUITE WINDY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WON`T BE MUCH OF A COLD FRONT IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES THOUGH...IN FACT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON
THURSDAY DESPITE THIS EVENT.

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL TRIGGER A LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW EVENT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ON
FRIDAY...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS...AND THEY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12/18Z TAF CYCLE...MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO AND OFFSHORE WITH LIFR CIGS
REMAINING THE PREDOMINATE CONDITION. HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
BRIEF MVFR CIGS AT KOTH BETWEEN 22-0Z. MEANWHILE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
INCREASE SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TONIGHT WITH LIFR CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR FROM CAPE BLANCO TO GOLD
BEACH BETWEEN 23-2Z. ELSEWHERE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF THE
CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL BETWEEN 22-3Z. -PETRUCELLI

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2015...SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO
SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH SEAS TO WARNING LEVELS LATE TONIGHT SOUTH
OF CAPE BLANCO. THE GALES THERE WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN. A
STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING RAIN,
A POSSIBILITY OF GALES, AND SOUTHWEST SEAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 10 TO 15 FEET.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2015...
CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES IN
THE POSITIVE TERRITORY. THE LATEST HRRR MAX REFLECTIVITY SHOWS MOST
OF THE RETURNS SOUTH OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN LIMITED ACTIVITY SHOWING UP IN MODOC AND LAKE COUNTY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THOROUGH ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
BL CAPE AND PLENTY OF CIN INTO THIS EVENING AND LIFTED INDICES
HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO -1C. ALSO HAVE YET TO SEE ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CAL.
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR LINGERING INTO SUNDAY, WIDESPREAD HAINES 5
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX, AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS THERE ON SUNDAY.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
IN FACT THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW MAY IN FACT MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CAL FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO MODOC COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES
624 AND 625. THUS, HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTH WITH THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. OF NOTE THE SREF SHOWS A 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND THIS
LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH SPC`S COVERAGE AREA FOR PROBABILITY OF
ONE STRIKE. OF NOTE THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH
CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -1C AT 18Z, THEN MORE
STABLE AT 0Z WITH LI`S NEAR 0C WITH NO CAPE. GIVEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE AND NOT ISSUE ANY
WATCHES.

AS WE GO INTO MONDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
WETTING RAINFALL IN THE 0.10-0.25" RANGE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT THE SCOTT VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WITH MODELS SHOWING 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN AND RH`S
UP SUBSTANTIALLY, SO, WHILE A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE,
EXPECT THAT, OVERALL, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY.

WE`LL CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER TUESDAY AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING BUILDS IN. THEN A POTENT
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN FROM THE
CASCADES WEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL FROM EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO MODOC COUNTY, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. NOTE WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WEST OF THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, IT MAY ONLY BE A SEASON SLOWING EVENT BECAUSE OF
THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
-PETRUCELLI

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 PM
        THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY
        FOR PZZ350-356.
     HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 PM PDT
        MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
        EVENING FOR PZZ350-356.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
        PZZ370-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS
        AFTERNOON FOR PZZ370-376.

$$

15/15/05




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1043 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NY STATE AT 0230Z. HOWEVER...VORT MAX DIVING SOUTHWARD ON BACK
SIDE OF LOW IS PRODUCING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS LATE THIS
EVENING. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR INDICATE THIS BATCH OF
SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES EAST/DOWNWIND OF THE
APPALACHIANS SPINE OVR POTTER CO. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD
HAVE EXITED SULLIVAN/TIOGA COUNTIES BY ARND OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z.

SKIES ALREADY HAVE CLEARED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES AS
OF 0230Z...AND EXPECT CLEARING TREND TO TAKE PLACE FROM SW TO NE
OVER THE REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOC
STRATOCU LIFT OUT. NR TERM MDL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY DAWN.

AN ACTIVE WESTERLY BREEZE AND LACK OF SIG CAA WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM
FALLING TOO PRECIPITOUSLY OVERNIGHT. BLEND OF LATEST GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS MIN TEMPS FROM THE M40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO
THE L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND SUNNY BUT STILL COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S
OVER THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. PRES GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR
NORTHERN NEW ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY
LATE MORNING AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS
ARND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PORTION OF THE FCST. DID UP MAX
TEMPS SOME. ALSO DID EDGE POPS DOWN SOME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DEEP UPPER LVL LOW THAT BROUGHT A WIDE RANGE OF AVIATION CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WAS ADVECTED DOWN THE TN VLY
TO THE SE COAST THIS MORNING.

AS RIDGE BUILDS SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE
BFD AND IPT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.

GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERAHPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS
WILL BRING REDUCED CIGS AND PSBLY VSBYS TO BRADFORD THROUGH 04Z.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING
SUNRISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 521 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW AS OF NOON LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF
JOHNSTOWN. THE WAVY FRONT EXTENDS NNE TO BETWEEN WILLIAMSPORT AND
WELLSBORO...AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA.
LIGHTNING DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRIKES SNEAKING INTO THE
MARYLAND BORDER COMMUNITIES OF FRANKLIN AND ADAMS COUNTIES.

WESTERN 1/4 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA HAS JUST SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
AT NOON...WHILE A STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW
RAIN OVER VIRGINIA WHICH IT SURGES NNE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...AND THE BEST RAINS COULD TAPER OFF
LOCALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3PM AS THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES
EASTWARD.

OTHER ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING UP INTO SERN PA. SPC HAS PLACED THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE STATE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. CLOUD COVER IS
EXTENSIVE AND INSTABILITY ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES
WILL NOT BE HIGH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AS WIND FIELDS
INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE JET.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PA THIS MORNING. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS SEE THE MERCURY HOLD BETWEEN 59-62F.

HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS STILLS POINTS TWD A BENEFICIAL AMOUNT
OF .50" TO 1.00" INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE STEADY RAIN TAPERING
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT AN OVERALL LOWERING OF
THE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO MY WESTERN AND
NORTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
LEADING TO THE CHANCE OF A FEW POP UP SHOWERS...AND WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS TICKLING 50...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PEA SIZED HAIL. A GRADUALLY INCREASING NW BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH FROM
THE NW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 60S WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT STILL COOLER...WITH A SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL PA.

AFTER THAT...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTH...BRINGING CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL PA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BACK EDGE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN MOVED A TAD FASTER THIS AFT
THAN THE 00Z MODELS SHOWED LAST NIGHT. STILL SOME HEAVY
AMTS WITH GUSTY WINDS EARLIER ACROSS THE SE.

ADJUSTED TAFS SEVERAL TIMES SINCE I STARTED AT 4 PM.

MORE ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO 21Z TAF PACKAGE.

EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PA
TODAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
WILL DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS
TO EXIT...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE....MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NW.
CANNOT RULE OUT A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...SCT MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/HAGNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE/MARTIN




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 316 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE LOW AS OF NOON LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF
JOHNSTOWN. THE WAVY FRONT EXTENDS NNE TO BETWEEN WILLIAMSPORT AND
WELLSBORO...AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA.
LIGHTNING DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRIKES SNEAKING INTO THE
MARYLAND BORDER COMMUNITIES OF FRANKLIN AND ADAMS COUNTIES.

WESTERN 1/4 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA HAS JUST SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
AT NOON...WHILE A STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW
RAIN OVER VIRGINIA WHICH IT SURGES NNE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...AND THE BEST RAINS COULD TAPER OFF
LOCALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3PM AS THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES
EASTWARD.

OTHER ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING UP INTO SERN PA. SPC HAS PLACED THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE STATE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. CLOUD COVER IS
EXTENSIVE AND INSTABILITY ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES
WILL NOT BE HIGH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AS WIND FIELDS
INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE JET.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PA THIS MORNING. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS SEE THE MERCURY HOLD BETWEEN 59-62F.

HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS STILLS POINTS TWD A BENEFICIAL AMOUNT
OF .50" TO 1.00" INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE STEADY RAIN TAPERING
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT AN OVERALL LOWERING OF
THE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO MY WESTERN AND
NORTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
LEADING TO THE CHANCE OF A FEW POP UP SHOWERS...AND WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS TICKLING 50...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PEA SIZED HAIL. A GRADUALLY INCREASING NW BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH FROM
THE NW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 60S WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY WILL BE DRY BUT STILL COOLER...WITH A SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
CENTRAL PA.

AFTER THAT...RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS NORTH...BRINGING CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. BY MIDWEEK HIGHS WILL CLIMB
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

THIS EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK...BEFORE A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO CENTRAL PA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PA
TODAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
WILL DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS
TO EXIT...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE....MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NW.
CANNOT RULE OUT A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...SCT MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...HAGNER
AVIATION...LA CORTE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 220 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF EAST OF THE REGION
TONIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP
US UNSETTLED THROUGH SUNDAY. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF NEXT
WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

SURFACE LOW AS OF NOON LOOKS LIKE IT IS PRETTY MUCH ON TOP OF
JOHNSTOWN. THE WAVY FRONT EXTENDS NNE TO BETWEEN WILLIAMSPORT AND
WELLSBORO...AND SOUTH FROM THE LOW THROUGH WESTERN VIRGINIA.
LIGHTNING DATA IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME STRIKES SNEAKING INTO THE
MARYLAND BORDER COMMUNITIES OF FRANKLIN AND ADAMS COUNTIES.

WESTERN 1/4 OR SO OF MY FCST AREA HAS JUST SHOWERY PRECIPITATION
AT NOON...WHILE A STEADY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING OVER
MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. HRRR CONTINUES TO GENERATE NEW
RAIN OVER VIRGINIA WHICH IT SURGES NNE OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS
MAY BE A LITTLE TOO FAR WEST...AND THE BEST RAINS COULD TAPER OFF
LOCALLY BETWEEN 2 AND 3PM AS THE BACK EDGE SLOWLY PROPAGATES
EASTWARD.

OTHER ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING UP INTO SERN PA. SPC HAS PLACED THE
EASTERN 1/3 OF THE STATE UNDER A MARGINAL RISK. CLOUD COVER IS
EXTENSIVE AND INSTABILITY ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE SO THE CHANCES
WILL NOT BE HIGH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM TO
DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AS WIND FIELDS
INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE JET.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PA THIS MORNING. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS SEE THE MERCURY HOLD BETWEEN 59-62F.

HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS STILLS POINTS TWD A BENEFICIAL AMOUNT
OF .50" TO 1.00" INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORT RANGE OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE WITH THE STEADY RAIN TAPERING
OFF QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING
FOR MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROMPT AN OVERALL LOWERING OF
THE POPS...WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CONFINED TO MY WESTERN AND
NORTHER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...

THE UPPER LOW AND TROUGH WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE
LEADING TO THE CHANCE OF A FEW POP UP SHOWERS...AND WITH TOTAL-
TOTALS TICKLING 50...WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LOW TOPPED
THUNDER AND PEA SIZED HAIL. A GRADUALLY INCREASING NW BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 15-25 MPH FROM
THE NW EXPECTED DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

HIGHS AVERAGING IN THE 60S WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THIS
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS WE EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND ENDING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
SURGE BACK INTO THE NERN US.

GEFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO CHEW THE TOP
OFF THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH LEADS TO THE MENTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
UNTIL THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH ON THE
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PA
TODAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
WILL DOMINATE INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN WAVE BEGINS
TO EXIT...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE....MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NW.
CANNOT RULE OUT A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...

MON-THU...SCT MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...LA CORTE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 1106 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL KEEP US UNSETTLED
THROUGH SUNDAY. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING
MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

THE WAVY FRONT PRETTY MUCH BISECTS THE FORECAST AREA WITH AT LEAST
ONE SURFACE LOW FOUND IN THE MESO ANAL DOWN OVER SW VIRGINIA.

RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIP BEGINNING TO BLOSSOM OVER MY SOUTHERN
ZONES FROM BEDFORD EAST...SUGGESTING CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA WILL
BE UNDER THE GUN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR SUPPORTS
THIS IDEA OF RAIN CONTINUING TO DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO
STRENGTHENING UPPER FORCING AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER JET STREAK
SURGES UP AND INTO PA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OTHER ISSUE TO CONTEND WITH WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PUSHING UP INTO SERN PA. SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND A LARGE PORTION OF THE MID SUSQ VALLEY
AND WRN POCONOS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX THIS AFTN/EVEN.
CLOUD COVER IS EXTENSIVE AND INSTABILITY ISN`T VERY IMPRESSIVE SO
THE CHANCES WILL NOT BE HIGH...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
STRONG UPDRAFT TO DEVELOP IN THE INCREASINGLY HUMID ENVIRONMENT AS
WIND FIELDS INTENSIFY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE JET.

TEMPS TODAY WILL RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
PA THIS MORNING. WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHERE HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND
LAUREL HIGHLANDS SEE THE MERCURY HOLD BETWEEN 59-62F.

HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS STILLS POINTS TWD A BENEFICIAL AMOUNT
OF .50" TO 1.00" INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT LATE
IN THE DAY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS... AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKS RIGHT OVERHEAD
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUALLY INCREASING NW BREEZE WILL
OCCUR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS FROM
THE NW ARE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THIS
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS WE EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND ENDING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
SURGE BACK INTO THE NERN US.

GEFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO CHEW THE TOP
OFF THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH LEADS TO THE MENTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
UNTIL THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH ON THE
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PA
TODAY...MOVING EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
WILL DOMINATE TODAY...REACHING THE MIDDLE AND UPPER SUSQ VALLEY
TERMINALS BY MID DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON.

THERE COULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN AND ESPECIALLY SOUTHEASTERN
AREAS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

RAIN WILL TAPER TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO
EXIT...BUT EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR /MVFR TO CONTINUE AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES OVER THE AREA.

AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE....MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS...MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NW.

OUTLOOK...

MON-WED...SCT MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 802 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND LIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP DRY AIR IS HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING BACK AT THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WE HAD 24
HOURS AGO...THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS/STRONG UVVEL FOR STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT RAIN HAVE SHIFTED ABOUT 75-100 NM FURTHER WEST.
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 115 KT SSWRLY 300 MB JET WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NRN WVA EARLY TODAY /INVOF KMGW/ WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW LIKELY CLOSE TO THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN.

THIS TRACK HAS FAVORED THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES OF NWRN PENN SO FAR...AND THE HRRR OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN DEPICTING GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND
SOME DISSIPATION OF THE INITIAL RAIN SHIELD AS IT NEARS THE
INTERSTATE 99 AND RT 220 CORRIDOR IN THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD TODAY.

A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE /MIGRATING NNE THROUGH THE MORE
EXTENSIVE APPROX 115 KT UPPER JET CORE/ WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM A
SECOND AREA OF STEADY MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED LIFTED
INDICES NEARING ZERO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SOME
EMBEDDED/LOW-TOPPED TSRA WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MAIN THREAT
FOR TSRA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES AFTER 19 OR 20Z.
03Z SREF SHOWS THE PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AT ABOUT 30
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NORTH.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND A LARGE PORTION
OF THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF
SVR WX THIS AFTN/EVEN. ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...INCREASING MID LVL
FLOW/DEEP LYR SHEAR IMPLIES SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MDLS PRODUCE AFTN CAPES ARND 500
J/KG.

WILL WHITTLE AWAY AND DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA A LITTLE MORE...THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UNTIL AROUND 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE MAINTAINING THE SAME POPS /BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF/
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.

TEMPS EARLY TODAY ARE IN A TIGHT...5 DEG F RANGE OF 55-60F ACROSS
THE REGION AT 09Z...AND WILL RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWTO MID 70S...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
SEE THE MERCURY HOLD BETWEEN 59-62F.

HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS STILLS POINTS TWD A BENEFICIAL AMOUNT
OF ONE-HALF TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT LATE
IN THE DAY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS... AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKS RIGHT OVERHEAD
SUNDAY AFTERNNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUALLY INCREASING NW BREEZE WILL
OCCUR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS FROM
THE NW ARE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THIS
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS WE EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND ENDING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
SURGE BACK INTO THE NERN US.

GEFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO CHEW THE TOP
OFF THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH LEADS TO THE MENTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
UNTIL THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH ON THE
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EDGE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS PA TODAY AS A
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. THE TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

AREA OF RAIN IMPACTING NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS
SLIDING INTO THE LAURELS AND CENTRAL/SC MTNS AT 12Z. THESE SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT WESTERN 2/3RDS OF CWA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...BRINGING A GENERAL REDUCTION OF CIGS/VSBYS
PEAKING AROUND MIDDAY. DRIER AIR IN PLACE OVER THE EAST WILL FEND
OFF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS A BIT LONGER THERE...WITH RAIN
IMPACTS/REDUCTIONS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OVERALL...WESTERN AREAS WILL FALL TO IFR WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN
TERMINALS GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. THERE WILL
EVEN BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY THAT AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T
BE RULED OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN MTNS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
SUSQ VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO
EXIT...BUT CIGS DROP TO WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IFR /MVFR SE/ AS
CENTER OF UPPER LOW ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO THE
W-NW AND INCREASES.

AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE....MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS /MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NW/.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SHOWERS EARLY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT.

MON-WED...SCT MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 550 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FEW WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AHEAD OF AN UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH
STRETCHED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS
MORNING. THE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK OVER CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
AND LIFT EAST OF THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEGINNING MONDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MOST
OR ALL OF NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DEEP DRY AIR IS HOLDING TOUGH ACROSS CENTRAL AND ERN PENN EARLY
THIS MORNING. LOOKING BACK AT THE VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE WE HAD 24
HOURS AGO...THE FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS/STRONG UVVEL FOR STEADY
LIGHT TO MDT RAIN HAVE SHIFTED ABOUT 75-100 NM FURTHER WEST.
CORRESPONDING SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
BENEATH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 115 KT SSWRLY 300 MB JET WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NRN WVA EARLY TODAY /INVOF KMGW/ WITH THE TRACK OF
THE LOW LIKELY CLOSE TO THE I-99/ROUTE 220 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL
PENN.

THIS TRACK HAS FAVORED THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST RAIN ACROSS THE
ALLEGHENIES OF NWRN PENN SO FAR...AND THE HRRR OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS HAS BEEN DEPICTING GRADUAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND
SOME DISSIPATION OF THE INITIAL RAIN SHIELD AS IT NEARS THE
INTERSTATE 99 AND RT 220 CORRIDOR IN THE 10Z-15Z PERIOD TODAY.

A RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE /MIGRATING NNE THROUGH THE MORE
EXTENSIVE APPROX 115 KT UPPER JET CORE/ WILL HELP TO BLOSSOM A
SECOND AREA OF STEADY MODERATE RAIN LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
MID AFTERNOON. THIS WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED LIFTED
INDICES NEARING ZERO...WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE OF SOME
EMBEDDED/LOW-TOPPED TSRA WITH BRIEFLY HEAVY RAIN. THE MAIN THREAT
FOR TSRA APPEARS TO BE ACROSS OUR FAR SE ZONES AFTER 19 OR 20Z.
03Z SREF SHOWS THE PROB OF CAPE EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG AT ABOUT 30
PERCENT ACROSS SOUTHERN LANCASTER COUNTY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS
JUST TO THE NORTH.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND A LARGE PORTION
OF THE MID SUSQ VALLEY AND WRN POCONOS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK OF
SVR WX THIS AFTN/EVEN. ALTHOUGH INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATER THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...INCREASING MID LVL
FLOW/DEEP LYR SHEAR IMPLIES SOME RISK OF STRONGER STORMS ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY...WHERE MDLS PRODUCE AFTN CAPES ARND 500
J/KG.

WILL WHITTLE AWAY AND DELAY THE ONSET OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA A LITTLE MORE...THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS IN CENTRAL PENN...AND UNTIL AROUND 15Z FOR MUCH OF THE SUSQ
VALLEY...WHILE MAINTAINING THE SAME POPS /BUT SLIGHTLY LOWER QPF/
ACROSS THE WESTERN MTNS THROUGH 12Z.

TEMPS EARLY TODAY ARE IN A TIGHT...5 DEG F RANGE OF 55-60F ACROSS
THE REGION AT 09Z...AND WILL RISE ONLY VERY SLOWLY ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN PENN THIS MORNING AS RAIN OVERSPREADS THE REGION.
WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY WHERE HIGHS WILL
REACH THE LOWTO MID 70S...WHILE THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS
SEE THE MERCURY HOLD BETWEEN 59-62F.

HAVE MODIFIED POPS AND STORM TOTAL RAINFALL SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL
FEEL THAT MODEL CONSENSUS STILLS POINTS TWD A BENEFICIAL AMOUNT
OF ONE-HALF TO 1.25 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE RAIN SHOULD TAPER OFF WITH THE PASSAGE OF SFC COLD FRONT LATE
IN THE DAY ACROSS THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS... AND DURING THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR LATER TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT TRACKS RIGHT OVERHEAD
SUNDAY AFTERNNOON AND NIGHT. A GRADUALLY INCREASING NW BREEZE WILL
OCCUR FOR LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. WIND GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS FROM
THE NW ARE EXPECTED IN MOST PLACES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BULK OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL OCCUR VERY EARLY IN THIS
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD AS WE EXPERIENCE THE EFFECTS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CLOSING OFF AS IT DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GR LAKES AND
EVENTUALLY MOVES OVERHEAD.

ENSEMBLES INDICATE THE RAIN TAPERING TO SHOWERS AND ENDING SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE IS PROJECTED TO
SURGE BACK INTO THE NERN US.

GEFS AND ECMWF HINT AT SHORTWAVE ENERGY BEGINNING TO CHEW THE TOP
OFF THE RIDGE BY NEXT WEEKEND WHICH LEADS TO THE MENTION OF A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THIS FAR OUT.
UNTIL THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER BOUT OF LATE SUMMER WARMTH ON THE
WAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE REGION TODAY AND
GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL WORK SLOWLY EAST TODAY.

SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING REDUCTIONS AFTER 09Z. AN AREA OF WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
PUSH IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTH /BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/
DURING THE DAY...WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING FROM WEST TO EAST.
REDUCTIONS ARRIVE MIDDAY AT KUNV AND MID AFTERNOON IN THE EAST.
WESTERN AREAS WILL FALL TO IFR WITH CENTRAL AND EASTERN TERMINALS
GENERALLY FALLING INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. EVEN ENOUGH MID LEVEL
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT AN ISOLATED TSTM CAN/T
BE RULED OUT IN THE SUSQ VALLEY.

RAIN TAPERS TO SHOWERS THIS EVENING AS MAIN WAVE BEGINS TO
EXIT...BUT CIGS DROP TO A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IFR /MVFR SE/ AS
CENTER OF UPPER LOW ARRIVES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKS AROUND TO
THE W-NW AND INCREASES.

AS TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE....MUCH OF SUNDAY WILL FEATURE GUSTY
WINDS...MVFR CONDITIONS AND SHOWERS /MOST NUMEROUS IN THE NW/.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...CIG RESTRICTIONS AND SCT SHOWERS EARLY...WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT.

MON-WED...SCT MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...RXR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

 244 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRIOR TO
THIS THOUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH 00Z. PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. HIGHS
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
WITH LOWER 90S TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO TONIGHT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY AS THE DRIER AIRMASS INVADING THE AREA TODAY REMAINS IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER DEEP MSTR WILL INCREASE AS EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.  CHC POPS WILL BE CONTINUED NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
LOWER POPS WEST.  MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND SO POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED SEABREEZE AREAS.
 MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM ACRS THE BOARD...ESPLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINS AND HV UNDERCUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    70  90  71  89  74  /   0   0   0  10  20
VICTORIA          64  87  65  88  69  /   0   0   0  10  10
LAREDO            72  93  71  95  73  /   0   0   0  10   0
ALICE             69  91  68  92  72  /   0   0   0  10  10
ROCKPORT          71  88  73  87  77  /   0   0   0  10  20
COTULLA           69  93  69  94  71  /   0   0   0   0   0
KINGSVILLE        69  90  70  91  73  /   0   0   0  10  10
NAVY CORPUS       75  87  74  87  77  /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

TB/78...SHORT TERM
TJ/70...LONG TERM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 353 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN ADDITION...COOL TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A GUSTY BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 353 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
THE EASTERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE CHAMPLAIN REGION. A STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS BRINGING PLENTY OF
MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO EASTERN/NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS WRAPPED ALL THE WAY BACK
WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH ANOTHER PIECE OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SWINGING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...SOME SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER CNY...AND THESE WERE
QUICKLY HEADING INTO THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY.
ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT...THERE ARE SOME EMBEDDED
HEAVIER BURSTS...ESP ON THE SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE THE
W-NW FLOW UPSLOPES THE MOUNTAINS.

THE NAM12 AND 3KM HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS THEY DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE ADIRONDACKS. STILL...HAVE GONE WITH CHC/LIKELY POPS FOR
NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. POPS TAPER OFF FURTHER
SOUTH...AS ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST FORCING.

BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND THE IMPULSE PRODUCING
THE LIFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS TO
START TO CLEAR OUT...AND END THE THREAT FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE
WILL BE A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND AS WELL...THANKS TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER EACH
DAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH CLEARING
SKIES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES AS WE WILL AVERAGE 5-
10 DEGREE ABOVE THOSE VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES...THIS WILL ADVECT IN H850 TEMPS BACK WELL INTO
THE TEENS CELSIUS.  THIS TOO WILL ASSIST WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FOR A
VERY MILD AFTERNOONS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A FRONTAL TIMING SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD...THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS LAPSE RATES
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE LESS THAN IDEAL.  HOWEVER...PER
COORDINATION...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS.  THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE EXIT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT OUR REGION AS A POCKET OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS MOST OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CIGS AND VIS UPSTREAM WERE WITHIN THE MVFR
CATEGORY AS WE WILL TREND THESE RESTRICTIONS INTO KGFL-KALB-KPSF.
FOR KPOU...WESTERLY WIND DOWNSLOPING MAY HOLD OFF THE SHOWER AND
MVFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE
HEART OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS TOWARD SUNRISE.

THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WE BEGIN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WITHIN THE MVFR RANGE.  ONCE THE UPPER LOW
PASSES TO OUR EAST AND NORTH...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED
INTO VFR.  THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS.  THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED AT KALB-KPSF.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WETTING RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 45 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WEST WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

AFTER A FULL RH RECOVERY TONIGHT ALONG WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWED FOR SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
RIVERS/STREAMS APPROACHED CAUTION STAGE. DESPITE LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES...NO FLOODING OCCURRED DUE TO
EXTREMELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOWS.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE UNDER A THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 405 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLY SEASON FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AS ITS BRIDGED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS
SOUTH AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. AT THE
SURFACE...OUTSIDE OF A MEDIOCRE 2 - 3 DEWPOINT DROP OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ISOLATED
AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE...
MAINTAINED POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS.

AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN...MODIFYING THE LOCAL
AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE BRIDGED BY THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER. DEEP ERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER CENTRAL FL...PUSHING THE REMNANT FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND BACK TO THE N WHILE TAPPING A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR UNDER THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE...H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
AOB 60PCT...H85-H50 AOB 50PCT.

DEEP E/SE WIND PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR DIURNAL
PREICP WHILE THE THE DRY MID LVL AIR KEEPS TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 50PCT.
EVEN SO... AT THE SAME TIME H50 TEMPS ARND -8C WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DRY AIR...KEEPING H85-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT INDICATE HIGH LVLS OF INSTABILITY...IT WILL INCREASE TSTM
POTENTIAL AS A 40KT H30-H20 JET STREAK TRAILING FROM THE DEPARTING
FRONTAL TROF DRAGS ITS WAY ACRS N FL.

WILL GO WITH A 30/40PCT COASTAL/INTERIOR SPLIT FOR PRECIP...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M/U80S...INTERIOR TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE L90S. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M/U70S AS THE BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW PREVENTS DECOUPLING AND PUSHES WARM OCEAN AIR ACRS CENTRAL FL.

WED-SUN...
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE CONSOLIDATED
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE W ATLC...IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED
GENERATING...GENERATING AN EXTENDED PD OF E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-
H50 LYR. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ALLOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO POOL ACRS THE
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL FL UNDER AN AIRMASS
WITH PWATS PUSHING THE 2.0"-2.2" RANGE.

THE PERSISTENT E/SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR
HIGHEST DIURNAL COVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SCT NOCTURNAL SHRAS.
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY
MODIFY UNDER THE STEADY TROPICAL FLOW REGIME. WILL CARRY 40-50PCT
POPS THRU THE PD. THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR AVG...M80S NEAR THE COAST AND U80S INLAND. MIN TEMPS ABV AVG
DUE TO THE SAME MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...M/U70S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. TREASURE COAST TERMINALS STAND TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY
OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH...
EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
VEER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FEET
TONIGHT..INITIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

TUE-FRI...THE ATLC HI PRES RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL LIFT N
AND MERGE WITH A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE LCL
WX PATTERN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE W ATLC AND SLOWLY WEAKENS WHILE
BCMG HIGHLY ELONGATED. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SERLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEK THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ERLY SWELL IN THE LCL
ATLC...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  75  87  75 /  30  30  40  30
MCO  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  50  30
MLB  87  78  89  78 /  50  40  40  40
VRB  88  76  88  76 /  50  40  40  40
LEE  88  74  91  75 /  30  10  50  30
SFB  86  74  91  74 /  40  20  50  30
ORL  88  75  91  76 /  40  20  50  30
FPR  88  77  88  77 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ULRICH
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...BRAGAW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 339 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED NEAR 140W 42N AS OF 0830Z. THIS WILL DIG RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
CWA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND VIRGA IS ALREADY ON RADAR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KREO TO FAIRFIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NORTH TODAY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
FOR BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. LATEST EC MOS AND HRRR GUIDANCE GIVES MID 80S FOR THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS...FOR EXAMPLE...WHILE THE LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS GIVES MID 70S FOR THE SAME AREAS. WE DECIDED
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THE MOST PART. WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND FOR TUE KEPT THE CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...ENTERING OUR OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND
MAKING IT THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND
A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH FORECAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS EARLY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BECAUSE THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS JUST ONE PART OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY...AND POPS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES....
AS ANOTHER PART OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SW TO W WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MODERATE IN SRN HARNEY COUNTY...AND WILL
GUST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH IN THE MIDTERM...WITH THE MAIN PUNCHES EXPECTED
TO COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE FREEZING LEVELS
WILL HAVE DROPPED FOR THIS BRIEF PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOW...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
LIKELY IN CONJUNCTION WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN EACH SHORTWAVE EVENT /WED AND
THURS/...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN/T AGREE ON TIMING...SO DID NOT
FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY
ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT NORMAL SATURDAY AND
JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A TROUGH MAY SKIRT OUR
REGION TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN TO THE
BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS. SHOWERS/VIRGA BEGINNING ALREADY
THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEVADA BORDER. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AFTER 14/18Z. MOUNTAINS BECOMING
OBSCURED AFTER 15/00Z IN HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. SURFACE WINDS...SW
10-20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KTS BEHIND COLD
FRONT. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING NEAR KBKE AT
ABOUT 15/00Z AND SHOULD REACH KTWF AT ABOUT 15/12Z. WINDS ALOFT AT
10K FT MSL...SW 15-25 KTS BECOMING W 25-35 KTS BY 15/00Z AND W 15-25
KTS AFTER 15/06Z.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...SP
LONG TERM....AB
AVIATION.....AB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 425 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER.  IT SHOULD
BE  MAINLY DRY AS WELL BUT IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL HAVE A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA.  THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH SOME FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.  INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT CINH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO WORK
WITH.  STILL...ALL THE HI-RES ARE ADAMANT ABOUT SPITTING SOMETHING
OUT.  THE HRRR IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE AND I BELIEVE SO IN THIS CASE
AS WELL BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED
WEAK STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR SO.  BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY AND CERTAINLY ANY MENTION
WOULD HAVE TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
POPS MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE SAME. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS LARGELY SITS UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO SW FLOW AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
AIDE IN BRINGING BACK TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S BY MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK TO KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. RIDGING AND SW FLOW ALOFT GET
USHERED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COOL OFF TEMPS JUST A BIT BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS US TO THE PRIMARY ISSUE/S
FOR THE FORECAST.

THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH GFS
TYPICALLY THE FASTEST...BUT IN GENERAL THEY MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT...AND WED NIGHT/THUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED CAP WORK AGAINST THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY MON
NIGHT...AND AS SUCH IS REFLECTED WITH DRY POPS. THOUGH...AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH HELP FROM THE
LLJ. THE TUE AND WED OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BETTER MOISTURE...THE
LLJ...AND LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO FIGHT AS STRONG OF A
CAP...RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FINALLY...LATE
IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE EURO/CANADIAN/NAM BEGIN PUSHING IT THROUGH NW IA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS PEGS IT MORE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON MOVING FORWARD. UNTIL THEN...POPS REMAIN TEMPORALLY BROAD AND
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT THE PASSAGE LIKELY CALLS FOR. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT...AND THE CONTINUED PROGGED
UNSUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION...14/06Z
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CHANCE
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT KFOD ON MONDAY...OTHERWISE WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD THOUGH CIGS AROUND 10 KFT OR ABOVE
WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...DONAVON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 404 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOW HOT IT GETS
AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND
NAM DID BEST ON THE JET THAT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW WITH
HEIGHTS WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WORST WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS
DOING THE BEST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM/GFS/SREF WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT HANDLE THE CORRECT LOCATIONS OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM COMPLETELY TOOK THAT PRECIPITATION
OUT. THE LATEST RAP HAS SOME NOCTURNAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING. OTHER
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SAY NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...THERE IS SOME LIFT AROUND BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN WITH WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PARAMETERS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOUTHERN STARTS GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY. NEW GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR
TODAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
NEAR 100 DEGREES. WILL EITHER BREAK OR GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE
WEATHER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICE TO SAY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...THERE
COULD BE TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DOING
BETTER ON THE JET. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET AFFECTS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE
POSITION. SURFACE IS IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS AGAIN WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH THE FAR SOUTH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
THE JET. SO ADJUSTED THIS AREA A LITTLE.

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET LIFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST. AT THAT SAME TIME A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH. AT THE END OF THE NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH. SO EXPANDED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT THEY WANT TO MAKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BEFORE THE WINDS START SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEY
ARE FROM A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AM THINKING THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE WARMING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HINDER THE
WARMUP SOME. DID COOL THE MAXES SLIGHTLY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO THREATEN RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

DUE TO MIXING AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT...WINDS LOOK TO GET INTO
THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT
THE JET. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RIGHT BEFORE
THIS PERIOD STARTS...AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE. SO WHATEVER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIST IS AROUND...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE DO NOT COOL DOWN VERY MUCH IF AT ALL. SO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ELONGATE AND
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN H7 WAKE LOW WILL
FORM AND A TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC REFLECT A VERY
SHALLOW TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING. BEST POPS WILL
BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE H5
HIGH NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE CWA ONCE MORE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MDT SUN SEP 13 2015

FOR KGLD AND KMCK VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONLY MID AND HIGH
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED FROM TIME TO TIME. FOR KGLD MAY SEE WINDS
ABOVE 12KT THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER TAF VALID TIME BEFORE
FALLING BELOW 12KTS FROM 10Z OR SO THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. FOR KMCK WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE THROUGH 19Z BELOW 12KTS
BUT FROM 20Z-23Z WINDS LOOK TO GUST NEAR 20KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
AFTER 00Z WINDS FALL JUST BELOW 12KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER
20 PERCENT RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE
WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.

FOR TUESDAY...AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS. AS STATED ABOVE...BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN
ON MONDAY BUT ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MIXING COULD MAKE THE WINDS STRONGER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER. FUELS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE DRIER BUT AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT/FIRE
WEATHER FOCAL POINT ASSESS THIS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND.....101 SET IN 1895
COLBY........100 SET IN 1935
TRIBUNE......99 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....98 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......99 SET IN 1955

RECORDS FOR TUESDAY

GOODLAND.....99 SET IN 1955
COLBY........98 SET IN 1955
TRIBUNE......98 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....99 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......100 SET IN 1955

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.

SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.

TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT KSAW/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 320 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS...ONLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WAA IN SW FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WARMEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

ALL 12Z MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY UNDER RISING 5H RIDGE
HEIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS GENERATES PCPN OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE MID-UPR RIDGE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH. LOOKING AT
THE GFS BUFR SNDGS AT KIWD IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE ANY PCPN BEING
SQUEEZED OUT OF SO DRY A SOUNDING PROFILE. ALSO...ALL THE POSITIVE
AREA (370 J/KG CAPE) IS ABOVE 650 MB AND THERE IS A 14C CAP AT 775
MB WITH OVER 250 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT AND KEEP A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA.

WITH 16 TO 19C 8H TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF THE CWA WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. INLAND TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (MID 70S) WITH SOME MODERATION IN SW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL ONLY BE AROUND
70F.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.

SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.

TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT KSAW/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30 KT S TO SW
WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUE THRU WED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 132 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS...ONLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WAA IN SW FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WARMEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.

ALL 12Z MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY UNDER RISING 5H RIDGE
HEIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS GENERATES PCPN OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE MID-UPR RIDGE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH. LOOKING AT
THE GFS BUFR SNDGS AT KIWD IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE ANY PCPN BEING
SQUEEZED OUT OF SO DRY A SOUNDING PROFILE. ALSO...ALL THE POSITIVE
AREA (370 J/KG CAPE) IS ABOVE 650 MB AND THERE IS A 14C CAP AT 775
MB WITH OVER 250 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT AND KEEP A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA.

WITH 16 TO 19C 8H TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF THE CWA WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. INLAND TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (MID 70S) WITH SOME MODERATION IN SW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL ONLY BE AROUND
70F.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

LATE SUMMER WARMTH IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR THU-FRI AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.

AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE STILL
HINTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
SW UPPER FLOW ALOFT. UPPER WAVES ARE LACKING FOR MOISTURE THOUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE INTERVALS OF MID CLOUDS 15-20 KFT
BUT IT STAYS VERY DRY BLO THAT CLOUD BASE. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WITH SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SUPPOSE
THERE COULD BE THICKER MID CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES. BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
WEST ESPECIALLY AS H85 JET VEERS SW AND BECOMES AIMED AT UPPER LAKES
WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. H85 JET AND CONVERGENCE WOULD
INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO TRIGGER THE SHRA/TSRA.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING THROUGH WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
WEAKER WAVES ON MON AND TUE. OVERALL...SEEMS THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE WEST
AND FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LK SUPERIOR.
LATER ON WED...SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK SLIM AS
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST...GREATEST MLCAPES TOWARD
1000J/KG REMAIN OVER NEB/IA INTO MN.

LATE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PROBABLY ENDS UP BEING THE MAIN STORY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE READINGS INTO THE 80S IN MID
SEPTEMBER AS RECORDS FOR 14-16 SEPT ARE STILL IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FOR THIS WEEK...BASED ON H85 TEMPS OF AT
LEAST 16 ON TUE AND 18-20C WED AND THU...SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE. NEED DEEPER MIXING TO
SEE THAT DEGREE OF WARMTH THOUGH AND ANY SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUDS WILL
DAMPEN THAT POTENTIAL. EVEN SO THOUGH...STEADY AND GUSTY AT TIMES S
TO SW WINDS IN TIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN TROUGH OVER PLAINS AND
RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN MINIMAL LAKE MODIFICATION AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE AND WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR
FM WEST ACROSS KEWEENAW TO NORTH CENTRAL TO SEE WARMEST TEMPS. EVEN
WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH DWPNTS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MOST HUMID DAY WOULD BE ON THU WITH DWPNTS INTO
THE 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

CONCERNING THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING OF FROPA THU/FRI BUT THAT IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR BEING THAT
FAR OUT. GFS IS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO A USUAL BIAS.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVEN ON THE GFS WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...GOING TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ITS FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALSO
SINCE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH FRONT STILL CLOSE BY...LIKE THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT OUT
AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. WILL TREND THAT
WAY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS IDEA WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEM-
NH IS A NOTEABLE SLOWER TREND AS 24 HR AGO BOTH OF THESE MODELS
SHOWED FRONT/QPF MAINLY EAST OF CWA FOR FRIDAY. MUCAPES 0-3KM 1000-
2000J/KG AND SW LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS
TSRA TOO. SHEAR IS STRONGEST THU NIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WHICH IS
PROBABLY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
REGION. PWATS OVER 1.50 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.

LATEST GEM-NH SUGGESTS LINGERING SHRA ON SATURDAY...BUT EVEN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT SOLN POINTS TO MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY. KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS BUT REMOVED POPS IN THE AFTN. REST OF WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INCREASING PRES
GRADIENT AND NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL LEAD TO LLWS OVERNIGHT. LLWS
WILL BE MARGINAL AT KSAW/KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30 KT S TO SW
WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUE THRU WED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Another pleasant morning underway across the region. Surface high
pressure has moved toward the mid Atlantic states and on the back
side of this high, southerly winds have developed. Thus far
moisture return has been lacking, and this is due (in part) to
easterly winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will take a
few days for southerly flow to tap into Gulf moisture.

A complex of storms is moving across northwestern and north
central portions of Oklahoma at this hour. This is being fed by a
rather strong low level jet. Cloud steering level winds are
general west to east right now, but they will shift to a more
southwest to northeast direction after sunrise. This shift in the
steering level winds along with a narrow area of isentropic
upglide (centered on the 310K level) may be enough to produce a
few showers and storms across the southwestern quarter of the
outlook area this morning. HRRR provides the strongest signal for
development while the remainder of the models are a bit more
bearish for development. Given that all models show a period of
isentropic upglide across the region this morning, have gone ahead
and introduced slight chance PoPs.

Mix of sun/clouds this morning should give way to mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. Our gradual warming trend will continue with
most locations warming to a few degrees either side of 80. Winds
will be breezy across the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with gusts nearing 30mph from time to time.
Heading into tonight, another strong low level jet will develop.
It appears the best focus for lift will be just to our north and
northwest. As a result, have pulled the slight chance PoPs out of
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
This will result in mainly quiet weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Breezy and warm conditions are expected Tuesday.
Winds will slacken a bit Wednesday/Thursday, but temperatures will
continue their upward trend, with most locations in the upper 80s
by Thursday.

As has been advertised the past few days, a decent shortwave will
move across the northern tier of states late Thursday into Friday.
This will send a cold front our way and increase our chances for
showers and storms from north to south Thursday night through
Friday night. The upper ridge still looks to be strong enough to
slow the southward progression of the surface cold front. The
question is, just how far to the south will this boundary end up.
Regardless, of where it ends up by Saturday, it will begin to move
back to the north on Sunday. With a boundary over/near the area
next weekend, have kept a mention of slight chance/chance PoPs.
Fropa/clouds/rain will knock temperatures back to at or below
average from Friday through next weekend.

At this point, the risk for strong/severe storms looks minimal
with the late week cold front. From a large scale perspective, the
incoming trough is positively tilted, deep layer shear is
marginal (30kt) and MLCAPE is progged to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

Pilots can expect VFR conditions at area terminals through Monday.
Southeasterly to southerly winds will increase at the surface
tonight through Monday as surface high pressure shifts to the
east. Surface winds will gust over 20 kts at times on Monday. Low
level wind shear will increase overnight and persist into early
Monday. A cluster of weakening showers and storms may move into
far southwestern Missouri but any impact on terminals is expected
to be minimal if any at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Foster




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

 1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES PLANNED THIS EVENING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS RRV AND EAST. WINDS HAVE TURNED NORTHWEST ALG AND WEST OF AN
HCO-GAF-JMS LINE. EXPECTING A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE TO PROGRESS
EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.

UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL HELP PUSH
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CWA. A FAIRLY DECENT COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY. HOWEVER...THINK THAT A FEW MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND
HRRR KEEP THE FOG OUT AND THINK THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

BY TOMORROW...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...A SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND PICK UP...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS BREAKS OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
AND WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING THE SFC
TROUGH INTO THE CWA. SOME PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR AND TEMPS WILL GET
INTO THE 80S AGAIN. THE NAM HAS A FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH SOME 20-30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY TO COME BACK UP WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST. HAVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN INITIAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW LOOK
TO EJECT OUT ON WED NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN. MOST
MODELS SHOW THU AFTERNOON DRY ON THE ND SIDE...BUT GUIDANCE IS
HANGING ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE
FA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT THIS POINT GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN WHILE THE ECMWF IS...SO AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES. THEREAFTER FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU/FRI WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN THEN WARM UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1128 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT...WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. COLD
FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH A ROX-GFK-JMS LINE BY 06Z...THROUGH AN
FGN-FSE-FAR LINE BY 09Z... AND THROUGH AN INL-BJI-FFM LINE BY
AROUND 12Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GUST



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 310 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FINAL SPOKE OF VORTICITY /MVG SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/ WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATO CU CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. 04Z HRRR DOESN/T PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS WEAK VORT MAX AND EAST/WEST
SFC TROUGH.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND MINS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE
L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW TO WEST AT 4-7KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRATO CLOUDS DEPART TO THE
NE. IT/LL STILL BE COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H
TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR NORTHERN NEW
ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS ARND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL WAVES DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEADILY AMPLIFY A
DOWNSTREAM...EASTERN U.S. RIDGE THAT WILL BRING A 4-5 DAY STRING
OF SPLENDID LATE SUMMER WEATHER.

AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE
MUCH GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE BFD
AND IPT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.

GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERHAPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS ALREADY EXPELLING THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS UNDER
THE UPPER LOW OFF TO THE EAST. SOME LAKE EFFECT VFR CLOUDS ARE
CROSSING NE OH AND WRN PA AND WILL MAKE IT INTO JST. THE FLOW
WILL ALSO TEND TO FAVOR GENERATION OF SIMILAR CLOUDS IN THE
ALLEGHENIES...SO HAVE INCLUDED JUST A FEW IN BFD FOR THE DAY.

MORNING FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS IS ALMOST A GIVEN WITH THE COLD
TEMPS...SO HAVE GIVEN IPT THE REGULAR TREATMENT OF LIFR CLOUDS
AND/OR FOG IN THE MORNING. BUT PLENTY OF SUN SHOULD HELP BURN/LIFT
IT QUICKLY. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AIR AND LITTLE/NO RAIN ON SUNDAY
SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG FORMATION. HIGH PRESSURE SFC AND ALOFT THEN
CREATES A FULL WEEK OF SIMILAR CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS.

OUTLOOK...

MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 239 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FINAL SPOKE OF VORTICITY /MVG SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/ WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATO CU CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. 04Z HRRR DOESN/T PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS WEAK VORT MAX AND EAST/WEST
SFC TROUGH.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND MINS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE
L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW TO WEST AT 4-7KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRATO CLOUDS DEPART TO THE
NE. IT/LL STILL BE COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H
TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR NORTHERN NEW
ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS ARND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SEVERAL WAVES DIGGING THROUGH THE BASE OF A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST TROUGH WILL HELP TO STEADILY AMPLIFY A
DOWNSTREAM...EASTERN U.S. RIDGE THAT WILL BRING A 4-5 DAY STRING
OF SPLENDID LATE SUMMER WEATHER.

AS THIS RIDGE BUILDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE
MUCH GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE BFD
AND IPT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.

GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERHAPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS
WILL BRING REDUCED CIGS AND PSBLY VSBYS TO BRADFORD THROUGH 04Z.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING
SUNRISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...LAMBERT/MARTIN
AVIATION...DANGELO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 157 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY LIFT OUT OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND PREVAIL INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. FAIR AND WARMER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...AND
CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
FINAL SPOKE OF VORTICITY /MVG SE AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW/ WILL AFFECT THE REGION
EARLY TODAY WITH PLENTY OF STRATO CU CLOUDS AND JUST A FEW LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT. 04Z HRRR DOESN/T PRODUCE
ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM THIS WEAK VORT MAX AND EAST/WEST
SFC TROUGH.

CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF PENN. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE COOL AND MINS AROUND SUNRISE
WILL VARY FROM THE MID 40S OVR THE ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...TO THE
L50S ACROSS THE SUSQ VALLEY.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SW TO WEST AT 4-7KTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY WILL BE DRY WITH
INCREASING AMOUNTS OF SUNSHINE AS THE STRATO CLOUDS DEPART TO THE
NE. IT/LL STILL BE COOL...WITH A SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED SOUTH OF
THE STATE...AND RESULTANT NORTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL PA. MDL 8H
TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS FROM THE MID 60S OVER THE LAUREL
HIGHLANDS...TO THE M70S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY. PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY TIGHT BTWN DEPARTING LOW OVR NORTHERN NEW
ENG AND SFC HIGH TO OUR SOUTH. THUS...EXPECT A BREEZY LATE MORNING
AND AFTN...WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING GUSTS ARND 20 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DID NOT CHANGE MUCH ON THIS PORTION OF THE FCST. DID UP MAX
TEMPS SOME. ALSO DID EDGE POPS DOWN SOME LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

DEEP UPPER LVL LOW THAT BROUGHT A WIDE RANGE OF AVIATION CONDITIONS
TO THE AREA LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL QUICKLY LIFT NE OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY. ABNORMALLY COLD AIR WAS ADVECTED DOWN THE TN VLY
TO THE SE COAST THIS MORNING.

AS RIDGE BUILDS SFC AND ALOFT THIS WEEK...HARD TO SEE MUCH
GOING ON. FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...GIVEN THE POSITION
OF THE HIGH. PERHAPS A LITTLE FOG LATE AT NIGHT IN SPOTS LIKE
BFD AND IPT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL.

GIVEN THE WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT...HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
A COLD FRONT ANYTIME SOON. PERAHPS A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE LATER
NEXT WEEKEND. ENJOY THE FINE LATE SUMMER WEATHER THIS WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AREA OF LIGHT RAIN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MTNS
WILL BRING REDUCED CIGS AND PSBLY VSBYS TO BRADFORD THROUGH 04Z.

ELSEWHERE...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE HOURS SURROUNDING
SUNRISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.

OUTLOOK...

MON-FRI...PATCHY MORNING VALLEY FOG...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
LONG TERM...MARTIN
AVIATION...LA CORTE/GARTNER




FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

VISIT...

 HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 313 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PUSHES EAST
WITH A WEAK WEEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM WYOMING TO WISCONSIN LATER
TODAY.  A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND
PREFER THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION.  THE HRRR
DOES PUSH SOME RADAR RETURNS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT THERE.  THIS SEEMS TO
MATCH THE GFS SOUNDINGS OF AN ACCAS POTENTIAL...BUT WITH TOO MUCH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RATHER LOW EXCEPT SOME SLIGHT INCREASE AROUND
700 MB LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT SATURATED.  AT 850 MB RH
INCREASES...BUT IS NOT VERY HIGH.  GFS SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE AT
MADISON AT 09Z ABOVE 700 MB.

SOME ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
850 MB MOISTURE...BUT THIS MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS ID
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A  LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG THE SHORELINE
AREAS WITH A SOUTH WIND.

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING/MIXING EACH DAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
AND THUS THE GUST SPEEDS.

PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP... SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET.

SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LOW
LEVEL JET... BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SPREAD INTO THE MKX AREA
LATER IN THE DAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME.

ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS WI FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/7 AM SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SOME PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW
AREAS.  OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL BORDERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH LATEST NAM 925 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT JUST
ENOUGH SURFACE WIND SO WIND SHEAR DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING 23-25
KT WIND GUSTS.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

&&

.MARINE...

WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 9PM THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE
TO START/END TIMES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
A LITTLE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
TUESDAY.

&&

.BEACHES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES. OTHER THAN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD HAVE A
HIGH RISK...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN
CHECK TO BRING ONLY A MODERATE SWIM RISK TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 627 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING SOME MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REGION THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF ALBANY. IN ADDITION...COOL TEMPERATURES...PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A GUSTY BREEZE WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS...ALONG
WITH A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY AND GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES...WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 627 AM EDT...A CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER
NORTHERN VERMONT. A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WAS
BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
EASTERN/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND SOME OF THIS MOISTURE HAS
WRAPPED ALL THE WAY BACK WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WITH
ANOTHER PIECE OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SWINGING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER OUR
AREA...MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW MORE MODERATE BURSTS AT TIMES...ESP OVER
UPSLOPE FAVORED AREAS...BUT OVERALL INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS
HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.

THE NAM12 AND 3KM HRRR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE MID MORNING
HOURS. SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AS
THEY DOWNSLOPE OFF THE HIGH TERRAIN. HAVE GONE WITH CHC/LIKELY
POPS FOR NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. POPS TAPER
OFF FURTHER SOUTH...AS ONE GETS FURTHER AWAY FROM THE BEST
FORCING.

BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN HOURS...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE
SHIFTING EASTWARD FURTHER INTO NEW ENGLAND...AND THE IMPULSE
PRODUCING THE LIFT WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW
CLOUDS TO START TO CLEAR OUT...AND END THE THREAT FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR VALLEY
AREAS...WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. THERE
WILL BE A GUSTY WESTERLY WIND AS WELL...THANKS TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GOOD MIXING EXPECTED BY THIS AFTN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY WARM
ALOFT...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE WARMER EACH
DAY.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S WITH CLEARING
SKIES. MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S. MIN TEMPS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY LOOK TO
REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH 70S FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE
NORTHEAST WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES.  NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR ARE GENERALLY BETWEEN 70-75 DEGREES AS WE WILL AVERAGE 5-
10 DEGREE ABOVE THOSE VALUES THROUGH SATURDAY.  AS A BROAD SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME EVOLVES...THIS WILL ADVECT IN H850 TEMPS BACK WELL INTO
THE TEENS CELSIUS.  THIS TOO WILL ASSIST WITH SOME DOWNSLOPING FOR A
VERY MILD AFTERNOONS FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WET WEATHER ARRIVES DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.  GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A FRONTAL TIMING SOMETIME
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.  AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS AFD...THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS IN QUESTION AS LAPSE RATES
AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY ARE LESS THAN IDEAL.  HOWEVER...PER
COORDINATION...WE WILL INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE
FORECAST/GRIDS.  THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF THE REGION
ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE A BIT SLOWER
WITH THE EXIT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY WITH A RETURN TO MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WERE APPROACHING THE REGION BUT WAS BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED AS THEY APPROACH THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. SOME
ENHANCEMENT IS EXPECTED INTO THE BERKSHIRES YET VISIBILITIES WERE
REMAINING HIGH. SO ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD LIKELY BE DUE TO
THE CIGS THIS MORNING. ONCE THE UPPER LOW PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
NORTH...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIFTED INTO VFR BY LATE THIS
MORNING. THE NEXT CONCERN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL BE THE
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AND GUSTS AT OR ABOVE 20KTS. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY BE OBSERVED AT KALB-KPSF. SKIES WILL
CLEAR THIS EVENING AS WINDS SUBSIDE.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
A WETTING RAINFALL OCCURRED ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTN WILL RANGE FROM 45 PERCENT ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS TO 65 PERCENT OVER THE ADIRONDACKS. WEST WINDS WILL
BE 10 TO 20 MPH WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS.

AFTER A FULL RH RECOVERY TONIGHT ALONG WITH HEAVY DEW
FORMATION...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 40 TO 55 PERCENT ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. W-NW WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL BE 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND ALLOWED FOR SOME RISES ON RIVERS AND
STREAMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
RIVERS/STREAMS APPROACHED CAUTION STAGE. DESPITE LOCALIZED RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF UP TO SIX INCHES...NO FLOODING OCCURRED DUE TO
EXTREMELY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL RIVER FLOWS.

SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...ESP FOR NORTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THIS RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT...AND BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL WILL MAINLY BE UNDER A THIRD OF AN INCH. FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...AS ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIVER LEVELS TO RECEDE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 9 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT... SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS THAT THE DRIER AIR ALOFT
HAD REACHED OSCEOLA AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. THE 14/09Z NCEP
SURFACE FRONT/SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS PLACED THE TAILEND OF THE
COLD FRONT AND BEGINNING OF A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY/SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA RIDGING SOUTH TO THE NORTH GULF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

THIS AFTERNOON... STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

CURRENT POP DISTRIBUTION LOOKS GOOD WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREA CLOSER TO THE STALLED FRONT AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS
LOCATED.

THE MORNING UPDATE TO BOTH THE ZONES AND COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
WILL LOOK AT AMENDING THE VARIOUS WIND GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES.

.AVIATION...VFR.

.MARINE... NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15 TO 20
KNOTS OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ON THE
OFFSHORE WATERS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET THIS MORNING INCREASING TO 3 TO 4
FEET WELL OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT...
THE REMNANTS OF AN EARLY SEASON FRONT WILL WASH OUT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY AS ITS BRIDGED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS TO ITS
SOUTH AND SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH.

LATEST RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES PRONOUNCED DRYING ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF
THIS AFTERNOONS FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...A LITTLE MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED BY MODELS. AT THE
SURFACE...OUTSIDE OF A MEDIOCRE 2 - 3 DEWPOINT DROP OVER OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS. GIVEN THE
PRESENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS...POPS HAVE BEEN
LOWERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE CWA...GENERALLY ISOLATED
AND MORE SHOWERY IN NATURE CENTERED ON THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY AND HIGHER MOISTURE...
MAINTAINED POPS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS.

AS LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...EXPECT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEEPEN...MODIFYING THE LOCAL
AIRMASS AND INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. HAVE
MAINTAINED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...
FRONTAL TROF OVER THE FL PENINSULA WILL BE BRIDGED BY THE ATLC RIDGE
AXIS JUST E OF THE BAHAMAS AND A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CURRENTLY
DOMINATING THE WX PATTERN E OF THE MS RIVER. DEEP ERLY FLOW WILL
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER CENTRAL FL...PUSHING THE REMNANT FRONTAL
MOISTURE BAND BACK TO THE N WHILE TAPPING A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY
AIR UNDER THE WRN FLANK OF THE ATLC RIDGE...H100-H70 MEAN RH VALUES
AOB 60PCT...H85-H50 AOB 50PCT.

DEEP E/SE WIND PATTERN WILL FAVOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES FOR DIURNAL
PREICP WHILE THE THE DRY MID LVL AIR KEEPS TOTAL COVERAGE BLO 50PCT.
EVEN SO... AT THE SAME TIME H50 TEMPS ARND -8C WILL ACCOMPANY THE
DRY AIR...KEEPING H85-H50 LAPSE RATES BTWN 6.0-6.5C/KM. WHILE THIS
DOES NOT INDICATE HIGH LVLS OF INSTABILITY...IT WILL INCREASE TSTM
POTENTIAL AS A 40KT H30-H20 JET STREAK TRAILING FROM THE DEPARTING
FRONTAL TROF DRAGS ITS WAY ACRS N FL.

WILL GO WITH A 30/40PCT COASTAL/INTERIOR SPLIT FOR PRECIP...ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP COASTAL TEMPS IN THE M/U80S...INTERIOR TEMPS WARMING
INTO THE L90S. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE M/U70S AS THE BRISK ONSHORE
FLOW PREVENTS DECOUPLING AND PUSHES WARM OCEAN AIR ACRS CENTRAL FL.

WED-SUN...
UNSETTLED WX PATTERN EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE CONSOLIDATED
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SLOWLY INTO THE W ATLC...IT WILL BECOME ELONGATED
GENERATING...GENERATING AN EXTENDED PD OF E/SE FLOW THRU THE H100-
H50 LYR. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANT T-WAVE FROM FORMER T.C. GRACE WILL
WORK ITS WAY INTO THE GOMEX BY MIDWEEK BEFORE STALLING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS THE WRN FLANK OF THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE. OVER THE WARM
GULF WATERS...IT WILL MERGE WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL TROF AND SLOWLY
ORGANIZE INTO A BROAD...ALBEIT WEAK...CLOSED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT WILL ALLOW COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE TO POOL ACRS THE
REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS KEEPING MUCH OF CENTRAL FL UNDER AN AIRMASS
WITH PWATS PUSHING THE 2.0"-2.2" RANGE.

THE PERSISTENT E/SERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE INTERIOR FOR
HIGHEST DIURNAL COVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND WHILE THE ONSHORE
COMPONENT WILL FAVOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FOR SCT NOCTURNAL SHRAS.
STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED AS THE COOL TEMPS ALOFT GRADUALLY
MODIFY UNDER THE STEADY TROPICAL FLOW REGIME. WILL CARRY 40-50PCT
POPS THRU THE PD. THE INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
NEAR AVG...M80S NEAR THE COAST AND U80S INLAND. MIN TEMPS ABV AVG
DUE TO THE SAME MODIFYING EFFECTS OF THE ONSHORE FLOW...M/U70S
AREAWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR. TREASURE COAST TERMINALS STAND TO SEE A BETTER CHANCE
OF BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON IN VICINITY
OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPER MOISTURE. FURTHER NORTH...
EXPECT ISOLATED TSRA AT BEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AND
VEER TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY AS SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. NE WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE UP
TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS BUILD UP TO 4 FEET
TONIGHT..INITIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS OF BREVARD AND VOLUSIA
COUNTY.

TUE-FRI...THE ATLC HI PRES RIDGE E OF THE BAHAMA BANK WILL LIFT N
AND MERGE WITH A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH
BY DAYBREAK TUE. THE CONSOLIDATED RIDGE WILL THEN DOMINATE THE LCL
WX PATTERN AS IT DRIFTS INTO THE W ATLC AND SLOWLY WEAKENS WHILE
BCMG HIGHLY ELONGATED. INTERACTION BTWN THESE TWO WX FEATURES WILL
GENERATE A GENTLE TO MODERATE E/SERLY BREEZE THRU THE WEEK THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL MAINTAIN AN ERLY SWELL IN THE LCL
ATLC...KEEPING SEAS IN THE 3-4FT RANGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  75  87  75 /  30  30  40  30
MCO  88  74  91  75 /  40  20  50  30
MLB  87  78  89  78 /  50  40  40  40
VRB  88  76  88  76 /  50  40  40  40
LEE  88  74  91  75 /  30  10  50  30
SFB  86  74  91  74 /  40  20  50  30
ORL  88  75  91  76 /  40  20  50  30
FPR  88  77  88  77 /  50  40  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX/AVIATION...JOHNSON
FORECASTS/UPATES.....WIMMER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BOISE ID

 947 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SW FLOW HAS SETUP OVER THE REGION BRINGING A
MOSTLY SOLID AREA OF CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD SHIELD AND EMBEDDED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS
ARE LIGHT AND COMBINED WITH DRY CONDITIONS IN THE NEAR SURFACE
LAYER...PRECIP WON/T AMOUNT TO MUCH FOR TODAY. HAVE KEPT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THAT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND BE
PARTICULARLY GUSTY NEAR ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS. NEAR TERM FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON EXPECTED CONDITIONS SO NO UPDATE AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR WITH BKN-OVC MID-HIGH CLOUDS. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. MTN OBSCURATION AFTER 15/00Z. SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 12
KTS OR LESS...THEN AFTER 14/23Z BECOMING NW 10-20 KTS FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND COLD FRONT. WINDS ALOFT NEAR 10KFT MSL...SW 20-30KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WAS LOCATED NEAR 140W 42N AS OF 0830Z. THIS WILL DIG RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW. A LEADING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL EJECT OUT OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE AND MOVE OVER THE
CWA AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. IN ADVANCE OF THIS...MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE. A MIXTURE OF SHOWERS AND VIRGA IS ALREADY ON RADAR
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KREO TO FAIRFIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AND EXPAND NORTH TODAY...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED
FOR BOTH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
TRICKY AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE. LATEST EC MOS AND HRRR GUIDANCE GIVES MID 80S FOR THE
TREASURE AND MAGIC VALLEYS...FOR EXAMPLE...WHILE THE LATEST LAV
GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS GIVES MID 70S FOR THE SAME AREAS. WE DECIDED
TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE FOR THE MOST PART. WE HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT
PERIODS FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND FOR TUE KEPT THE CHANCE IN THE
SOUTHEAST. THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION...ENTERING OUR OREGON ZONES THIS EVENING AND
MAKING IT THROUGH THE WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY BY AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.
SHOWERS...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS TONIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. PRECIP AMOUNTS AROUND
A THIRD OF AN INCH WILL BE COMMON IN THE MTNS...WITH AROUND A
TENTH OF AN INCH FORECAST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS EARLY TUESDAY...THERE WILL BE PARTIAL CLEARING AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR 70 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
BECAUSE THIS FIRST SYSTEM IS JUST ONE PART OF THE OVERALL LONGWAVE
TROUGH BECOMING ESTABLISHED TO OUR WEST...CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AGAIN IN SE OREGON LATE TUESDAY...AND POPS WILL INCREASE
SLIGHTLY IN THE AFTERNOON FOR SRN HARNEY AND MALHEUR COUNTIES....
AS ANOTHER PART OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES. SW TO W WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME MODERATE IN SRN HARNEY COUNTY...AND WILL
GUST IN MOST AREAS WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS AND FRONTAL PASSAGE
OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL REMAIN BELOW WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
POSITIONED OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH A FEW
SHORTWAVES THROUGH IN THE MIDTERM...WITH THE MAIN PUNCHES EXPECTED
TO COME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. EXPECTING MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION OVER MOST OF THE REGION...WITH A CHANCE FOR A LIGHT
DUSTING OF SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS THE FREEZING LEVELS
WILL HAVE DROPPED FOR THIS BRIEF PERIOD. ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
WILL BE LOW...SO ONLY EXPECTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MOST
LIKELY IN CONJUNCTION WITH EACH FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP BETWEEN EACH SHORTWAVE EVENT /WED AND
THURS/...BUT MODEL GUIDANCE DOESN/T AGREE ON TIMING...SO DID NOT
FAVOR ANY PARTICULAR MODEL. EXPECTING BREEZY CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO A DRY
ZONAL FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO ABOUT NORMAL SATURDAY AND
JUST ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...A TROUGH MAY SKIRT OUR
REGION TO THE NORTH BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AGAIN TO THE
BLUE AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...DG
AVIATION.....EP
PREV SHORT TERM...SP
PREV LONG TERM....AB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AND IS MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST SLOWLY.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT HI-
RES MODELS HAVE GRASPED ONTO THIS THOUGH THEY ARE ALL EITHER TOO
FAST OR TOO BROAD IN COVERAGE WITH THE PRECIP.  POP/WX GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.  I HAVE BASICALLY
EXPANDED WHAT I HAD GOING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER.  IT SHOULD
BE  MAINLY DRY AS WELL BUT IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL HAVE A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA.  THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH SOME FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.  INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT CINH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO WORK
WITH.  STILL...ALL THE HI-RES ARE ADAMANT ABOUT SPITTING SOMETHING
OUT.  THE HRRR IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE AND I BELIEVE SO IN THIS CASE
AS WELL BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED
WEAK STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR SO.  BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY AND CERTAINLY ANY MENTION
WOULD HAVE TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
POPS MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE SAME. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS LARGELY SITS UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO SW FLOW AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
AIDE IN BRINGING BACK TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S BY MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK TO KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. RIDGING AND SW FLOW ALOFT GET
USHERED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COOL OFF TEMPS JUST A BIT BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS US TO THE PRIMARY ISSUE/S
FOR THE FORECAST.

THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH GFS
TYPICALLY THE FASTEST...BUT IN GENERAL THEY MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT...AND WED NIGHT/THUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED CAP WORK AGAINST THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY MON
NIGHT...AND AS SUCH IS REFLECTED WITH DRY POPS. THOUGH...AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH HELP FROM THE
LLJ. THE TUE AND WED OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BETTER MOISTURE...THE
LLJ...AND LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO FIGHT AS STRONG OF A
CAP...RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FINALLY...LATE
IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE EURO/CANADIAN/NAM BEGIN PUSHING IT THROUGH NW IA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS PEGS IT MORE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON MOVING FORWARD. UNTIL THEN...POPS REMAIN TEMPORALLY BROAD AND
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT THE PASSAGE LIKELY CALLS FOR. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT...AND THE CONTINUED PROGGED
UNSUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION...14/12Z
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH SOME MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SPREADING INTO WESTERN IOWA MAY POP AN ISOLD SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAINLY INVOF KFOD.  SOUTHERLY SFC WIND AT 10G22KTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL TAF LOCATIONS AND VFR CIGS
WILL ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 534 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOW HOT IT GETS
AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND
NAM DID BEST ON THE JET THAT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW WITH
HEIGHTS WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WORST WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS
DOING THE BEST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM/GFS/SREF WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT HANDLE THE CORRECT LOCATIONS OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM COMPLETELY TOOK THAT PRECIPITATION
OUT. THE LATEST RAP HAS SOME NOCTURNAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING. OTHER
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SAY NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...THERE IS SOME LIFT AROUND BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN WITH WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PARAMETERS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOUTHERN STARTS GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY. NEW GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR
TODAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
NEAR 100 DEGREES. WILL EITHER BREAK OR GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE
WEATHER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICE TO SAY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...THERE
COULD BE TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DOING
BETTER ON THE JET. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET AFFECTS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE
POSITION. SURFACE IS IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS AGAIN WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH THE FAR SOUTH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
THE JET. SO ADJUSTED THIS AREA A LITTLE.

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET LIFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST. AT THAT SAME TIME A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH. AT THE END OF THE NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH. SO EXPANDED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT THEY WANT TO MAKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BEFORE THE WINDS START SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEY
ARE FROM A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AM THINKING THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE WARMING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HINDER THE
WARMUP SOME. DID COOL THE MAXES SLIGHTLY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO THREATEN RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

DUE TO MIXING AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT...WINDS LOOK TO GET INTO
THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT
THE JET. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RIGHT BEFORE
THIS PERIOD STARTS...AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE. SO WHATEVER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIST IS AROUND...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE DO NOT COOL DOWN VERY MUCH IF AT ALL. SO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ELONGATE AND
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN H7 WAKE LOW WILL
FORM AND A TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC REFLECT A VERY
SHALLOW TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING. BEST POPS WILL
BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE H5
HIGH NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE CWA ONCE MORE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 532 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR BOTH SITES WILL CREATE LIGHT AND SHIFTING WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER
20 PERCENT RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE
WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.

FOR TUESDAY...AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS. AS STATED ABOVE...BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN
ON MONDAY BUT ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MIXING COULD MAKE THE WINDS STRONGER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER. FUELS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE DRIER BUT AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT/FIRE
WEATHER FOCAL POINT ASSESS THIS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND.....101 SET IN 1895
COLBY........100 SET IN 1935
TRIBUNE......99 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....98 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......99 SET IN 1955

RECORDS FOR TUESDAY

GOODLAND.....99 SET IN 1955
COLBY........98 SET IN 1955
TRIBUNE......98 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....99 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......100 SET IN 1955

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 730 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.

SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.

TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH ONSET OF DAYTIME
HEATING...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY TO 15-25KT...THEN DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 640 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Another pleasant morning underway across the region. Surface high
pressure has moved toward the mid Atlantic states and on the back
side of this high, southerly winds have developed. Thus far
moisture return has been lacking, and this is due (in part) to
easterly winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will take a
few days for southerly flow to tap into Gulf moisture.

A complex of storms is moving across northwestern and north
central portions of Oklahoma at this hour. This is being fed by a
rather strong low level jet. Cloud steering level winds are
general west to east right now, but they will shift to a more
southwest to northeast direction after sunrise. This shift in the
steering level winds along with a narrow area of isentropic
upglide (centered on the 310K level) may be enough to produce a
few showers and storms across the southwestern quarter of the
outlook area this morning. HRRR provides the strongest signal for
development while the remainder of the models are a bit more
bearish for development. Given that all models show a period of
isentropic upglide across the region this morning, have gone ahead
and introduced slight chance PoPs.

Mix of sun/clouds this morning should give way to mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. Our gradual warming trend will continue with
most locations warming to a few degrees either side of 80. Winds
will be breezy across the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with gusts nearing 30mph from time to time.
Heading into tonight, another strong low level jet will develop.
It appears the best focus for lift will be just to our north and
northwest. As a result, have pulled the slight chance PoPs out of
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
This will result in mainly quiet weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Breezy and warm conditions are expected Tuesday.
Winds will slacken a bit Wednesday/Thursday, but temperatures will
continue their upward trend, with most locations in the upper 80s
by Thursday.

As has been advertised the past few days, a decent shortwave will
move across the northern tier of states late Thursday into Friday.
This will send a cold front our way and increase our chances for
showers and storms from north to south Thursday night through
Friday night. The upper ridge still looks to be strong enough to
slow the southward progression of the surface cold front. The
question is, just how far to the south will this boundary end up.
Regardless, of where it ends up by Saturday, it will begin to move
back to the north on Sunday. With a boundary over/near the area
next weekend, have kept a mention of slight chance/chance PoPs.
Fropa/clouds/rain will knock temperatures back to at or below
average from Friday through next weekend.

At this point, the risk for strong/severe storms looks minimal
with the late week cold front. From a large scale perspective, the
incoming trough is positively tilted, deep layer shear is
marginal (30kt) and MLCAPE is progged to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 0629 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Aviation concerns for the Ozarks will focus on showers and
lingering low level wind this morning and wind shear over night
tonight. Showers had developed across the western Ozarks with the
potential for scattered showers to impact KSGF and KJLN this
morning. The ingredients for the showers will diminish through
the morning with VFR conditions expected this afternoon for all
terminals. Low level wind shear will dissipate this morning as
the low level jet weakens, only to develop again tonight as is
once again strengthens with LLWS for all aerodromes during most of
the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Hatch




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

 843 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

.UPDATE...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED DEEPENING TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST THIS
MORNING. GOOD STREAM OF MOISTURE WAS COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC
INTO THE NW U.S.. PACIFIC AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES
DEEPENING. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE NE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY WITH A STRONGER WAVE MOVING NE OUT OF WY TONIGHT. GFS AND
WRF WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN PLACING CONVECTION OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREADING IT OUT INTO THE PLAINS
TONIGHT. THE NSSL WRF AND HRRR DEVELOPED SOME CONVECTION FURTHER
TO THE E AND N TODAY...TOWARD KBIL...THE PRYORS AND
HARLOWTON...WHICH WAS REFLECTED IN THE GOING FORECAST. RAP
SOUNDINGS SHOWED INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THESE AREAS
SUPPORTING THE FORECAST. MOST MODELS SHOWED NO CAPE FOR TODAY BUT
ALL AGREED ON STEEP LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER LOOKED REASONABLE.

ONLY FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO THE SKY COVER THIS MORNING AND A
FEW WIND GRIDS TO MATCH LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND MODELS.
ALSO INCREASED THE HAINES INDEX IN A FEW AREAS DUE TO THE WARM AND
DRY SOUNDINGS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN GOOD SHAPE BASED ON 700 MB
TEMPERATURES OF +8 TO +12 DEGREES C OVER THE AREA. ARTHUR

&&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

MAIN FEATURES OF THE SHORT TERM INVOLVE THE TRANSITION FROM WARM
AND DRY CONDITIONS TO A SEASONABLE AND WETTER PATTERN AS A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. EMBEDDED IN THIS MEAN TROUGH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. WHILE TODAY WILL
BE COOLER THAN SUNDAY...THE MORE DRASTIC COOL DOWN WILL HAVE TO
WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING WHEN WE SEE A COLD FRONT PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS
ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH PHASES WITH SOME MONSOONAL ENERGY MOVING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN THE WEEKEND BUT WE WILL STILL BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S. EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE BEARTOOTHS AND BIGHORNS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS AFTER 6PM. SHOWERS WILL BE HIT OR
MISS...WITH NOT MUCH QPF...AS WE LACK ANY SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC
FORCING. BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE LOCATIONS WEST OF
ROUNDUP...BILLINGS...AND SHERIDAN. LOW TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE
MID 50S IN THE PLAINS.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN PUSHING THROUGH
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR CWA EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN THROUGH
BILLINGS AND LOCATIONS EAST AFTER 6PM. SIMILAR TO TODAY...SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD COMMENCE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...THOUGH WE ARE
EXPECTING A LITTLE BIT EARLIER OF A START COMPARED TO TODAY. WITH
THE STRONGER FORCING ALOFT EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD BUT STILL OF THE HIT OR MISS VARIETY. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REACH BILLINGS IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AND THEN PUSH
EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. WITH MUCH COOLER TEMPS
MOVING IN ALOFT SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER AND CURRENTLY HAVE SOME
RAIN-SNOW MIXES ABOVE 10000 FEET. MUCH COOLER...BUT STILL
SEASONABLE...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED.
UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN WESTERN VALLEYS BECAUSE OF THE EARLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE AS WELL AND IN THE
MID 40S. DOBBS

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES WILL EMERGE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC AND DROP
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF CANADA...THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
PAC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES WED/THU. WE WILL SEE A GOOD CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TSTMS AND COOLER TEMPS WITH EACH OF
THESE WAVES. ORIENTATION OF SOUTHWESTERLY JET OVER MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BRING GREATEST CHANCE OF PCPN OVER OUR WEST
ON WEDNESDAY. THURSDAY...FLOW WILL VEER TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
AS AIRMASS TURNS A BIT COLDER. AS CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE
HAVE RAISED POPS A BIT MORE WITH EACH OF THESE FAST-MOVING
TROFS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MTNS. 700MB TEMPS FALLING TO NEAR -3C
SUGGESTS SOME SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 8KFT OR SO ON THURSDAY...THOSE
PLANNING TO TRAVEL OVER BEARTOOTH PASS SHOULD BE AWARE. 500MB
TEMPS TO NEAR -20C ON THURSDAY COULD YIELD SOME SMALL HAIL/
GRAUPEL WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME BREEZY W-NW WINDS WITH THE PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONTS EACH DAY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THURSDAY STILL
LOOKS TO BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY RISE WITH FLAT RIDGING FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND
WHICH WILL TAKE US THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...IE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
ONCE WE GET PAST THURSDAY NIGHT THE NEXT CHANCE OF PCPN WILL NOT
BE UNTIL THE FOLLOWING MONDAY OR TUESDAY BASED ON CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS.

JKL
&&

.AVIATION...

DRY WEATHER WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING
THRU EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE FROM THE SW WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
LOCAL MVFR IS POSSIBLE IN THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
FOOTHILLS...AND MOUNTAINS WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT     SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 084 056/072 047/068 044/067 044/071 045/075 049/078
    2/T 44/W    35/T    43/T    30/B    00/B    11/U
LVM 081 050/065 044/059 039/060 037/068 039/072 044/075
    2/T 55/W    36/T    45/T    40/B    01/B    11/U
HDN 085 052/077 045/071 042/070 040/073 040/078 044/080
    1/B 33/W    23/T    43/T    31/B    00/U    01/U
MLS 084 057/080 049/076 046/070 045/070 046/077 048/079
    1/U 32/T    23/T    43/T    31/U    00/U    01/U
4BQ 085 057/083 051/081 046/070 045/070 043/077 047/080
    1/U 22/W    23/T    31/B    41/B    00/U    01/U
BHK 082 057/083 050/076 046/069 044/068 044/075 046/078
    0/B 11/B    23/T    41/B    31/B    00/U    01/U
SHR 085 055/079 047/076 041/070 039/070 038/077 041/078
    1/B 34/W    23/T    33/T    30/B    00/U    01/U

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1103 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER VERY NICE DAY IS ON TAP TODAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA. 925 MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS FROM MODELS SUGGEST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE AREA. RAISED HIGHS
A FEW DEGREES INTO THIS RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. THE GUSTS WILL LOWER TONIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY...BEFORE RAMPING UP TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD BACK TO THE SOUTH
SOUTHEAST AS WELL ON TUESDAY.

MAY SEE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATER TONIGHT...WITH
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS.
MADISON AND WAUKESHA WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY SEE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECT MADISON LATER TONIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT INTO THE EARLY EVENING
FOR ALL NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES. STILL EXPECT TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND DAYTIME LOW LEVEL MIXING TO RESULT IN WIND GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS ON THE LAND...AFFECTING THE LAKESHORE AND WESTERN PART
OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

RECENT TAMDAR DESCENT SOUNDING INTO KMKE SHOWS PREVAILING WINDS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 28KTS ABOUT 1400FT OFF THE GROUND. LOW LEVEL
INVERSION DUE TO THE COOL LAKE MICHIGAN WATERS WILL KEEP WIND
GUSTS LOWER FARTHER AWAY FROM SHORE.

TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT LINGERS THROUGH THURSDAY SO ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED EACH DAY.

MBK

&&

.BEACHES...

GUST SOUTH WINDS WILL AFFECT LAKE MICHIGAN BEACHES TODAY. WAVES
AT THE SHORE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ALONG SHEBOYGAN COUNTY DUE TO
THE ORIENTATION OF THE COUNTY. 3 TO 5 FOOT WAVES AND BREEZY SOUTH
WINDS WILL CAUSE A HIGH SWIM RISK TODAY...WITH A MODERATE SWIM
RISK FARTHER SOUTH.

MBK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.

THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN PUSHES EAST
WITH A WEAK WEEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW FROM WYOMING TO WISCONSIN LATER
TODAY.  A VERY WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE AND 700 MB UPWARD MOTION
AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT THIS MAY BE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED WITH
THE GFS BRINGING IN LIGHT PRECIPITATION.  THINK THIS IS OVERDONE AND
PREFER THE HRRR EXPERIMENTAL WITH EXPLICIT CONVECTION.  THE HRRR
DOES PUSH SOME RADAR RETURNS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SURFACE PRECIPITATION IS NOT THERE.  THIS SEEMS TO
MATCH THE GFS SOUNDINGS OF AN ACCAS POTENTIAL...BUT WITH TOO MUCH
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR FOR ANY PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY IS RATHER LOW EXCEPT SOME SLIGHT INCREASE AROUND
700 MB LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT IS NOT SATURATED.  AT 850 MB RH
INCREASES...BUT IS NOT VERY HIGH.  GFS SOUNDINGS DO SATURATE AT
MADISON AT 09Z ABOVE 700 MB.

SOME ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING
850 MB MOISTURE...BUT THIS MIXES OUT THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS ID
AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST SURFACE WIND IS EXPECTED. LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF A  LAKE BREEZE IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT MAYBE ALONG THE SHORELINE
AREAS WITH A SOUTH WIND.

LONG TERM...

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING PEAK AFTERNOON
HEATING/MIXING EACH DAY. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF MIXING
AND THUS THE GUST SPEEDS.

PERSISTENT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
WEAK MID LEVEL INSTABILITY AND DRY LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE
ANY PRECIP... SO KEPT THE FORECAST DRY.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET.

SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN THE
SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW. THE FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF WISCONSIN ON THURSDAY WITH SUPPORT FROM THE LOW
LEVEL JET... BUT THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD SPREAD INTO THE MKX AREA
LATER IN THE DAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS DUE TO A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST
THROUGH ONTARIO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH SLIDING ACROSS WISCONSIN
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI DURING THIS TIME.

ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN THE
RIDGE AND SLIDE ACROSS WI FRIDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING MORE
PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE GFS.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF SOUTHEAST WI AT OR SHORTLY AFTER
12Z/7 AM SATURDAY MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL
AND DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. HIGHS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

SOME PATCHY IFR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW
AREAS.  OTHERWISE LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS STILL BORDERLINE EARLY THIS MORNING SOUTH
CENTRAL...WITH LATEST NAM 925 MB WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS...BUT JUST
ENOUGH SURFACE WIND SO WIND SHEAR DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR MENTION
IN THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY WITH DAYTIME MIXING TAPPING 23-25
KT WIND GUSTS.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE AS A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.

MARINE...

WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TIL 9PM THIS EVENING. NO CHANGE
TO START/END TIMES FOR THE REST OF THE AREA AS WINDS SHOULD SUBSIDE
A LITTLE TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN
TUESDAY.

BEACHES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HIGHER WAVES ALONG THE LAKE
MICHIGAN BEACHES. OTHER THAN SHEBOYGAN COUNTY WHICH SHOULD HAVE A
HIGH RISK...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FETCH LOOKS TO KEEP WAVE HEIGHTS IN
CHECK TO BRING ONLY A MODERATE SWIM RISK TO THE BEACHES.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ052.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ644>646.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WOOD/MBK
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MRC




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

 326 PM MST MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WILL
KEEP STORM CHANCES GOING THROUGH TUESDAY...TRENDING DOWN
WEDNESDAY. DRY AIR OVERSPREADS THE REGION BY THURSDAY.  TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING A FEW DEGREES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...
CAPE TURNED OUT TO BE QUITE A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT AS STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS TAKEN PLACE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE COUNTIES. AS OF THIS
WRITING...EARLY STAGE STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS BEGUN OVER WESTERN
MARICOPA COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS DRY ADVECTION
MAY BE UNDERWAY OVER SOUTHERN YUMA AND SOUTHEAST IMPERIAL COUNTY.
DURING THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING THE MODELS INDICATE THAT
TREND CONTINUING NORTH AND EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP STORM
ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA
ISOLATED...BUT STRONG...IN NATURE. OF NOTE...ONLY THE PAST 2-3 RUNS
OF THE HRRR HAVE BEEN DEPICTING QPF OVER SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.
MEANWHILE...MOST OF SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA RETAINS DEEP MOISTURE
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT
OVER WESTERN MARICOPA AND NORTHERN PINAL COUNTIES. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW OF 25-30 KNOTS THESE STORMS WILL ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD
QUITE POSSIBLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF METRO PHOENIX. STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO FORM WILL BE LINGER LIVED BUT LESS LIKELY TO PRODUCE STRONG
DOWNDRAFTS THAN STORMS FROM YESTERDAY. HI- RES MODELS HAVE INDICATED
ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PRECIP
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH- CENTRAL ARIZONA AS A WEAKENING
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS...THOUGH MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AS
GOOD AND BOUNDARY LAYERS SHOULD BE MORE STABLE.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ON TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
GREAT BASIN...BRUSHING OUR FORECAST AREA. OUR CWA REMAINS ON THE
ANTICYCLONIC SIDE OF THE JET AXIS FOR THE MOST PART.
ACCORDINGLY NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DYNAMICAL ASSISTANCE FOR PRECIP
PRODUCTION...THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SPOTTY UPPER DIVERGENCE.
ALSO...THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL STILL BE FAIRLY WARM. SO MODEL
CAPE IS FAIRLY UNDER-WHELMING BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP. IN FACT...THERE WILL BE SOME
MOISTURE REPLENISHMENT AS SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST
PACIFIC IS ADVECTED IN. IN FACT SOME MODELS DEPICT QPF OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA DESPITE THE SHALLOW NATURE OF IT...SATURATED
LAYERS BARELY REACHING THE FREEZING LEVEL...AND NO CAPE. YET ANOTHER
WAVE COMES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT IT IS EVEN A LITTLE BIT FURTHER
REMOVED FROM OUR AREA AND THERE LOOKS TO BE LESS MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. SO POPS TREND DOWN FURTHER WITH ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. POPS GO AWAY ALTOGETHER
THURSDAY AS DRY ADVECTION OVERSPREADS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN STATES...TEMPS WILL BE NICELY BELOW
NORMAL BUT FAR FROM CHILLY.

FRIDAY INTO THE COMING WEEKEND... FLOW ALOFT WILL GENERALLY MAINTAIN
SOME WESTERLY INFLUENCE AS TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN TIER
OF THE COUNTRY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE DIGS DEEPER INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH MILD AND PLEASANT
MID-SEPTEMBER TEMPERATURES. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS POINT TO AN WESTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE BACK ACROSS OLD MEXICO AND A
REINTRODUCTION OF DEEPER MONSOONAL FLOW AND RELATED MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTH LATE SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SUNDAY.
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES COULD RESULT...AND
PRECIP CHANCES COULD RETURN TO AT LEAST FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LOWER CONFIDENCE ON THUNDERSTORM FORMATION AND COVERAGE
TODAY...HOWEVER PRIMARY INDICATIONS SUGGEST EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND
MUCH BRIEFER IMPACTS VERSUS SUNDAY. HAVE CARRIED VCTS MENTION AROUND
THE 00Z TIME FRAME...HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE SO ISOLATED THAT
IMPACTS ARE VERY FEW. OTHERWISE...SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A
SWLY DIRECTION...WITH POSSIBLY SOME HIGHER GUSTS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ALSO HINT AT LOWER CLOUD DECKS AROUND 5K FT
TUESDAY MORNING...THOUGH HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A SCT MENTION IN THIS
TAF PACKAGE.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
PRIMARY AVIATION IMPACT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN SFC WINDS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT KBLH WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 25KT...THEN WEAKENING LATER THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE
IS GOOD THAT MUCH STRONGER WESTERLY GUSTS 30-35 KT ARE LIKELY AT
KIPL THIS EVENING...GENERALLY SUBSIDING AFTER 06Z TUESDAY. THIS MAY
ALSO LOFT BLOWING DUST REDUCING VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
VERY TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARRIVING
NEXT MONDAY. DESPITE THE DRY WEATHER...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WITH AFTERNOON READINGS ONLY FALLING INTO A 15 TO
30 PERCENT RANGE. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE VERY MANAGEABLE WITH ONLY MODEST AFTERNOON UPSLOPE
GUSTINESS TRENDING FROM A WESTERLY DIRECTION AND LIGHT DRAINAGE
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...BLOWING DUST ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ032.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...AJ/NOLTE
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

 140 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015 THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA IN AN AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION
AND IS MOVING TO THE EAST NORTHEAST SLOWLY.  IT DOES APPEAR THAT HI-
RES MODELS HAVE GRASPED ONTO THIS THOUGH THEY ARE ALL EITHER TOO
FAST OR TOO BROAD IN COVERAGE WITH THE PRECIP.  POP/WX GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT PRECIP TRENDS.  I HAVE BASICALLY
EXPANDED WHAT I HAD GOING TO THE NORTH AND EAST.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY DAY AND IT WILL BE WARMER.  IT SHOULD
BE  MAINLY DRY AS WELL BUT IT IS NOT AS CLEAR CUT AS THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  WARM ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY TO OUR WEST AND WE WILL HAVE A
SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN IOWA.  THIS WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH SOME FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.  INSTABILITY
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BUT CINH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SQUASH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  ALSO...SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE DRY SO THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO WORK
WITH.  STILL...ALL THE HI-RES ARE ADAMANT ABOUT SPITTING SOMETHING
OUT.  THE HRRR IS TYPICALLY OVERDONE AND I BELIEVE SO IN THIS CASE
AS WELL BUT IF WE CAN GET SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...IT
MAY BE POSSIBLE TO MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO GET AN ISOLATED
WEAK STORM THAT COULD PRODUCE A HUNDREDTH OR SO.  BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY TODAY AND CERTAINLY ANY MENTION
WOULD HAVE TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BUT THERE IS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
POPS MENTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IN THE LATE MORNING OR AFTERNOON
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

THE BIG PICTURE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED AND THE SAME. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CONUS LARGELY SITS UNDER ZONAL UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CURRENTLY...WHICH WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO SW FLOW AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SE. AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK AND
AIDE IN BRINGING BACK TEMPS INTO THE 80S AND DEW POINTS WELL INTO
THE 60S BY MID-WEEK. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY AND GUSTY SIDE
DURING THE WEEK AS A COUPLE OF SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AND MOVE OFF
THE LEE SIDE OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND WORK TO KEEP THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELATIVELY TIGHT. RIDGING AND SW FLOW ALOFT GET
USHERED OUT AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL COOL OFF TEMPS JUST A BIT BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S.
MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL WORK THEIR WAY INTO/THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHICH LEADS US TO THE PRIMARY ISSUE/S
FOR THE FORECAST.

THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHORTWAVES WILL PERIODICALLY WORK
THEIR WAY THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AND PRESENT OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TIMING VARIES A BIT BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH GFS
TYPICALLY THE FASTEST...BUT IN GENERAL THEY MOVE THROUGH MON
NIGHT...TUE NIGHT...AND WED NIGHT/THUR PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LATE IN THE WEEK. A GENERAL LACK OF MOISTURE AND A WELL
ESTABLISHED CAP WORK AGAINST THE FIRST OPPORTUNITY MON
NIGHT...AND AS SUCH IS REFLECTED WITH DRY POPS. THOUGH...AN
ELEVATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ENOUGH HELP FROM THE
LLJ. THE TUE AND WED OPPORTUNITIES HAVE BETTER MOISTURE...THE
LLJ...AND LIKELY WILL NOT HAVE TO FIGHT AS STRONG OF A
CAP...RESULTING IN SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS. FINALLY...LATE
IN THE WEEK THE TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY INTO/THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE MODELS REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO
TIMING. THE EURO/CANADIAN/NAM BEGIN PUSHING IT THROUGH NW IA
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS PEGS IT MORE THURSDAY MORNING
AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENCE IN POPS IS RELATIVELY HIGH
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE HONED IN
ON MOVING FORWARD. UNTIL THEN...POPS REMAIN TEMPORALLY BROAD AND
ON THE LOWER END OF WHAT THE PASSAGE LIKELY CALLS FOR. THE SEVERE
POTENTIAL REMAINS MINIMAL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH THE ELEVATED
POTENTIAL PRIOR TO THE FRONT...AND THE CONTINUED PROGGED
UNSUPPORTIVE SHEAR PROFILES.

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 138 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

STILL SOME THREAT OF ISOLATED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH
THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY FROM THE
SOUTH WITH LIGHTER WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...COGIL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1206 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION...HOW HOT IT GETS
AND POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. SATELLITE IS SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND RETROGRESSIVE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC TO ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
NORTH AMERICA. THIS TRANSITIONS INTO A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER MOST
OF THE COUNTRY WITH STRONG LEAVING THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS INITIALIZED FINE BUT THE GFS...CANADIAN AND
NAM DID BEST ON THE JET THAT IS ENTERING THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS TENDED TO BE TOO LOW WITH
HEIGHTS WITH THE NAM/ECMWF THE WORST WITH THE UKMET/CANADIAN/GFS
DOING THE BEST. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE NAM/GFS/SREF WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE CANADIAN ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE 00Z NAM WAS PRODUCING SPOTTY LIGHT QPF THROUGH
THE DAY. HOWEVER...IT DID NOT HANDLE THE CORRECT LOCATIONS OF
RAINFALL YESTERDAY. THE 06Z NAM COMPLETELY TOOK THAT PRECIPITATION
OUT. THE LATEST RAP HAS SOME NOCTURNAL RAINFALL DEVELOPING. OTHER
CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS SAY NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS DEVELOPMENT TO
THE EAST OF OUR AREA. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MENTION OF
MORNING CONVECTION BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHTTIME...THERE IS SOME LIFT AROUND BUT
THERE IS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN WITH WARMER 700 MB
TEMPERATURES. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO PARAMETERS WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY. LATE IN THE NIGHT...SOUTHERN STARTS GETTING CLOSER TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

BASED ON YESTERDAYS PERFORMANCE OF THE MODEL OUTPUT...AND LATEST
GUIDANCE...IT LOOKS TO BE A HOT DAY. NEW GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR
TODAY AND RAISED TEMPERATURES ACCORDINGLY. SOME LOCATIONS WILL GET
NEAR 100 DEGREES. WILL EITHER BREAK OR GET CLOSE TO SOME RECORDS.
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE
WEATHER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SUFFICE TO SAY COMPLICATED SCENARIO FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS ALL PANS OUT...THERE
COULD BE TWO OR THREE DIFFERENT WAVES OF THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DOING
BETTER ON THE JET. LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF SOUTHERN JET AFFECTS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE EVENING.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING SURFACE TROUGH AND DRYLINE
POSITION. SURFACE IS IN THE FAR WEST. HOWEVER...THAT IS WHERE THERE
IS LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. MODELS AGAIN WANT TO
DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG A DRYLINE IN NEAR THE CENTER OF THE AREA AT
THE SAME TIME A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. BEST LIFT...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RESIDE IN THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION WITH THE FAR SOUTH HAVING THE BEST CHANCE DUE TO
THE JET. SO ADJUSTED THIS AREA A LITTLE.

INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JET LIFT MOVE OFF TO THE EAST. AT THE
SAME TIME...DURING THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE
SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE PULLS BACK TO THE WEST. AT THAT SAME TIME A
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD AS THE STRONGEST
SHORTWAVE OF THE PERIOD MOVES THROUGH. AT THE END OF THE NIGHT THE
SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED THROUGH. SO EXPANDED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST AND INCREASED POPS IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERENCES ON HOW HOT THEY WANT TO MAKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES. BEFORE THE WINDS START SHIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTH THEY
ARE FROM A SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. AM THINKING THE MODELS ARE UNDERDOING THE WARMING. THERE
LOOKS TO BE MORE HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD COVER WHICH MAY HINDER THE
WARMUP SOME. DID COOL THE MAXES SLIGHTLY. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES
COULD ALSO THREATEN RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

DUE TO MIXING AND A LITTLE TIGHTER GRADIENT...WINDS LOOK TO GET INTO
THE BREEZY CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. REFER TO THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION BELOW FOR DISCUSSION ON FIRE WEATHER ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS DIFFER ON WHERE THEY WANT TO PUT
THE JET. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH RIGHT BEFORE
THIS PERIOD STARTS...AIR MASS IS MUCH DRIER AND STABLE. SO WHATEVER
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIST IS AROUND...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE CLOUD
COVER.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON THE TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE
WHATEVER BOUNDARY HAS MOVED THROUGH PULLS BACK TO THE NORTH. IT IS
POSSIBLE WE DO NOT COOL DOWN VERY MUCH IF AT ALL. SO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ELONGATE AND
DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD ON THURSDAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
WESTERLY LATE THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY. AN H7 WAKE LOW WILL
FORM AND A TROUGH WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE CWA LATE THURSDAY WITH
SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THAT WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF AND CMC REFLECT A VERY
SHALLOW TROUGH WITH THE GFS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY MORE AMPLIFIED AND
THE THREE GLOBAL MODELS ALL HAVE VERY SIMILAR TIMING. BEST POPS WILL
BE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
MIDDAY SATURDAY AS SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE H5
HIGH NOW SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS DOMINATES THE PATTERN. THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL FORM LATE SATURDAY AND WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE CWA ONCE MORE LATE SATURDAY EVENING AND EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ON
THURSDAY. FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WE WILL SEE MORE SEASONAL HIGHS
IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. LOWS FOR THE PERIOD WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AND BECOME GUSTY BY 18Z ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

FOR TODAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM AROUND 10 PERCENT TO JUST UNDER
20 PERCENT RESIDE FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER...THAT HAPPENS TO BE THE PLACE WHERE THE
WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST AND DO NOT EXPECT WIND CRITERIA TO BE REACHED.

FOR TUESDAY...AM A LITTLE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER
PROBLEMS. AS STATED ABOVE...BREEZY TO MAYBE WINDY CONDITIONS ARE IN
PLACE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE HIGHER THAN
ON MONDAY BUT ARE STILL NEAR TO BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE AREA. MIXING COULD MAKE THE WINDS STRONGER AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES EVEN LOWER. FUELS ARE LOOKING LIKE THEY ARE DRIER BUT AM
NOT SURE ABOUT THIS AT THIS TIME. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT/FIRE
WEATHER FOCAL POINT ASSESS THIS FOR A POSSIBLE FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 359 AM MDT MON SEP 14 2015

RECORDS FOR TODAY

GOODLAND.....101 SET IN 1895
COLBY........100 SET IN 1935
TRIBUNE......99 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....98 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......99 SET IN 1955

RECORDS FOR TUESDAY

GOODLAND.....99 SET IN 1955
COLBY........98 SET IN 1955
TRIBUNE......98 SET IN 1955
HILL CITY....99 SET IN 1955
BURLINGTON...98 SET IN 1955
YUMA.........98 SET IN 1955
MCCOOK.......100 SET IN 1955

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER
CLIMATE...BULLER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

 621 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL OUT OF THE REGION
TONIGHT ENDING THE SHOWER THREAT. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL
BRING FANTASTIC LATE SUMMER WEATHER...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
605 PM UPDATE: WITH THE XCPTN OF THE TSTM NEAR EASTON...LATEST
RADAR REF IMAGERY OVER THE LAST HR INDICATES A WEAKENING TREND OF
SHWRS AND WDLY SCT TSTMS TO MSLY SHWRS...SO WE WILL GO OUT THIS
UPDATE WITH JUST SCT SHWRS...WITH THE TSTM NEAR EASTON MOVG E INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK WITHIN THE NEXT 15 MIN OR SO. LATEST HRRR MODEL HRLY
SIM RADAR REF OUTPUT SHOWS MOST OF THE REST OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING LATE TNGT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ESE FROM NRN ME INTO
CNTRL NB.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED FROM OBSVD FCST HI TEMPS
FROM EARLIER THIS AFTN...THRU 5-6PM OBS TO...ATTM...UNCHGD FCST
LOWS POSTED AT 6-7 AM. WE WILL WAIT FOR MORE DEFINABLE TRENDS THRU
MID EVE BEFORE MAKING ANY NECESSARY CHGS TO FCST OVRNGT LOWS.

ORGNL DISC: LATEST KCBW RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCTD TO NUMRS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF OUR CWA. THIS IS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WHICH SHOWS UP NICELY ON RADAR. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN TAPER TO
ISOLD SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MOSTLY
DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PROPAGATES EWRD AWAY FROM OUR CWA
AND A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE WILL BRING MUCH
WARMER TEMPS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TO THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD BRINGING
FANTASTIC LATE SUMMER WEATHER TO MAINE. ON WEDNESDAY A 1028MB MSLP
HIGH CRESTS OVER THE NORTHEAST...BRINGING A CLEAR WARM DAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT...BUT A BIT
WARMER AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR SOUTHWEST
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE 80S...THERE
IS EVEN A POSSIBILITY FOR A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE AT CARIBOU.
THERE WILL BE A FEW CLOUDS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CROWN OF
MAINE...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FURTHER SOUTH ONCE
AGAIN. THE ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER TO SPEAK OF IS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...AS DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN HIGH AND
THE NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER...ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN WILL TRANSITION FROM STRONG RIDGING AND
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SHOWERS BY THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER FANTASTIC DAY WITH ALL
MODEL CAMPS KEEPING THE EAST COAST RIDGE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDGE PUSHING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS
FEATURE...BRINGING SHOWERS TO THE REGION. FEATURE LOOKS TO BE
PROGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME...AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY WITH A RELATIVELY LARGE COOL DOWN EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR/VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY DISSIPATES AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY.

SHORT TERM:VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SHORT
TERM...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY MORNING FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN MAINE TAF
LOCATIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ANZ050 AND
ANZ051 THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO WSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KT AND
WAVES HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 7 FEET. SEAS AND WAVES SHOULD DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA TUESDAY MORNING.

SHORT TERM:CONDITIONS WILL STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WITH WAVES AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ050-051.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...DUMONT
LONG TERM...DUMONT
AVIATION...VJN/DUMONT
MARINE...VJN/DUMONT



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 325 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...LEADING TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
WHILE THE RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER THE EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
PERSISTENT OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND BE EJECTING A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES NORTHEAST FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS.
THE TRACK OF MOST OF THESE WAVES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS
WILL KEEP THEM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE A FEW WAVES THAT COULD BRUSH WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND WITH THE BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION...COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES DUE TO
THE DRY ATMOSPHERE INDICATED ON SOUNDINGS BELOW 15KFT AND THIN SOME
OF THE MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE QPF (ESPECIALLY THE GFS).
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE STRONGEST WINDS ABOVE
THE SURFACE WILL BE HELD OFF BY THE STRONG INVERSION AROUND
900-875MB...SHOULD STILL SEE ENOUGH MIXING ON WEDNESDAY TO PRODUCE
GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT.

THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR RAINFALL IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL
COME AT THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW RUNS
A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THAN THE ONE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT (THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA INSTEAD OF LAKE WINNIPEG). WHILE MUCH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW...THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SWEEP EAST ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL
FOLLOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR THE POPS
MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THAT TIME. MODELS DO
INDICATE SOME MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WITH
MUCAPES RISING TO 1000-2000 J/KG OVER THE WESTERN U.P. THURSDAY
EVENING. THE 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE DECENT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...AROUND 30KTS...BUT A LOT OF THAT WILL DEPEND ON THE
TIMING OF THE STORMS SINCE MOST OF THE SHEAR ARRIVES IN THE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER. EFFECTIVE LAYER SHEAR VALUES HEADING LATER INTO THE
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE U.P....FALL BELOW 20KTS AND THINK THAT WILL LIMIT MUCH
OF THE SEVERE THREAT. IN ADDITION...FREEZING LEVELS OUT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT LOOK TO BE AROUND 13KFT AND WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
TOWARDS 1.5 INCHES...COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH THE STORMS BUT
FORTUNATELY THE STORM MOTION (NORTHEAST AT 30-40KTS) WILL KEEP THEM
FROM STAYING IN PLACE TOO LONG.

WILL SHOW DECREASING POPS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THE FRONT EXITS...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON A
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND CATCH UP WITH THE FRONT IN THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS KEY FOR
THE SHORTWAVE AND HOW MUCH EFFECT IT HAS ON THE U.P.. AT THE PRESENT
TIME...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH THE EASTERN HALF TO TWO-THIRDS OF THE U.P.
SHOULD SEE SOME RAIN FROM THE SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND WILL
SHOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA FOR NOW.

THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE NICE WITH TEMPERATURES
NEAR NORMAL THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. ZONAL FLOW WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED DURING THIS TIME AND FOCUSED TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA AND LEAD TO LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. THIS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM BACK ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. 00Z
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DID RUN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
BUT EVEN THE ENSEMBLE MEAN VALUES ARE A SOLID 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. WHEN COMBINING THIS UPCOMING WARM PERIOD WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF SEPTEMBER...IT
LOOKS LIKE THE MONTH AS A WHOLE WILL END UP PRETTY WARM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH MIXING DAYTIME
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW...
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 137 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NEAR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BEFORE FLOW DIVES SSE INTO
THE TROF THAT IS SHIFTING TO NEW ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO IS PRODUCING A FEW SHRA/TSRA WELL N OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE...IT`S A QUIET MORNING ACROSS A LARGE AREA OF
THE NRN AND CNTRL CONUS WITH CLEAR SKIES DOMINATING FROM THE ERN
DAKOTAS TO THE GREAT LAKES.

DURING THE SHORT TERM...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE.
HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE GFS GENERATES
SOME SPOTTY PCPN THIS AFTN AND TONIGHT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR AND
THE W HALF OF UPPER MI. LOOKING AT FCST SOUNDINGS...THERE IS A
PRONOUNCED ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (UPSTREAM 00Z KABR SOUNDING SHOWS
THIS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER NICELY). SO...SFC BASED CONVECTION IS OUT
OF THE QUESTION. OVERALL...AIR MASS LOOKS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANY
SHRA DEVELOPMENT FROM THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. THUS...A DRY FCST
WILL BE CARRIED THRU THE SHORT TERM. UNDER SUNNY SKIES TODAY...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS AROUND 70F ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE MID 70S TO
LWR 80S ELSEWHERE...WARMEST IN THE S/SW WIND DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE BREEZY TODAY WITH GUSTS TO 20-30MPH...
STRONGEST E. HOWEVER...AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH FAR NRN
ONTARIO SHORTWAVE DRIFTS S AND E TOWARD NW LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY...
PRES GRADIENT AND THUS WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVER THE WRN PORTION OF THE
AREA...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW LIMITED LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
INTO WRN UPPER MI DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE AFTN. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

SW FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FROM TUE ON UNTIL A TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH LOOKS LIKE FRI NIGHT AT THIS POINT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED EARLY ON. GREATER
MOISTURE AND STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
AND SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT RESULTS IN GREATER POPS LATE THU INTO EARLY
FRI. PORTIONS OF THE AREA COULD SEE SOME PRECIP AS THE TROUGH PASSES
FRI NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DRY. THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD.

WITH MODELS SHOWING A FEW LOW END BLOTCHES OF QPF AROUND THE AREA
TUE...BUT WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 10KFT DO NOT EXPECT ANY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES THOUGH.

SHOULD SEE GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES FROM TUE NIGHT UNTIL
THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE AS SW FLOW INCREASES AND THE
LLJ STRENGTHENS...ALSO GRADUALLY IMPROVING MOISTURE. STILL CAN NOT
GIVE A GREAT AMOUNT OF DETAIL GIVEN UNCERTAINTY RELATED TO SHORTWAVE
STRENGTH/TRACK/TIMING. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN DETAILS
RELATED TO THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE LATE THU-THU NIGHT...BUT MUCAPES
LOOK TO GENERALLY BE ON THE ORDER OF 2000-3000 J/KG WITH DECENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR. COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS.

WINDS WILL BE QUITE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY TUE AND WED...WITH
GUSTS OVER 30-35 KTS OVER PORTIONS OF THE W HALF TUE.

TEMPS WILL...OF COURSE...BE DEPENDENT ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER...BUT
THE GENERAL IDEA IS THAT TUE AND WED WILL BE WARMEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...IN THE LOW TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND AROUND 80 ELSEWHERE. THU LOOKS TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE GREATER. 850MB TEMPS ARE 10-12
DEGREES COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI THROUGH SUN...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID 60S-LOW 70S...WHICH IS AROUND CLIMO.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITH MIXING DAYTIME
SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AT KIWD AND KSAW...
BETWEEN 20-25 KTS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 515 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2015

IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES
OFF TO THE SE AND E AND A LOW PRES TROF TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS
OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER
WINDS IS ONGOING AND WILL CONTINUE THRU THE MORNING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTN...DRAMATICALLY OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS
WILL FALL OFF TO UNDER 15KT. THE NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL
OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER EASTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR. PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK THAT A PERIOD
OF LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20KT DOMINATES.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SPRINGFIELD MO

 1229 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.UPDATE...

We had to increase pops over in southeast Kansas and western
Missouri this afternoon in response to a small area of rainfall
approaching from the west.

It appears as though this rain is associated with a left over MCV,
and could make it as far as Interstate 49 prior to dissipating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Another pleasant morning underway across the region. Surface high
pressure has moved toward the mid Atlantic states and on the back
side of this high, southerly winds have developed. Thus far
moisture return has been lacking, and this is due (in part) to
easterly winds across the northern Gulf of Mexico. It will take a
few days for southerly flow to tap into Gulf moisture.

A complex of storms is moving across northwestern and north
central portions of Oklahoma at this hour. This is being fed by a
rather strong low level jet. Cloud steering level winds are
general west to east right now, but they will shift to a more
southwest to northeast direction after sunrise. This shift in the
steering level winds along with a narrow area of isentropic
upglide (centered on the 310K level) may be enough to produce a
few showers and storms across the southwestern quarter of the
outlook area this morning. HRRR provides the strongest signal for
development while the remainder of the models are a bit more
bearish for development. Given that all models show a period of
isentropic upglide across the region this morning, have gone ahead
and introduced slight chance PoPs.

Mix of sun/clouds this morning should give way to mainly sunny
skies this afternoon. Our gradual warming trend will continue with
most locations warming to a few degrees either side of 80. Winds
will be breezy across the Osage Plains of southeastern Kansas and
western Missouri, with gusts nearing 30mph from time to time.
Heading into tonight, another strong low level jet will develop.
It appears the best focus for lift will be just to our north and
northwest. As a result, have pulled the slight chance PoPs out of
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

Zonal/flat ridge upper level pattern will develop over the region.
This will result in mainly quiet weather conditions Tuesday
through Thursday. Breezy and warm conditions are expected Tuesday.
Winds will slacken a bit Wednesday/Thursday, but temperatures will
continue their upward trend, with most locations in the upper 80s
by Thursday.

As has been advertised the past few days, a decent shortwave will
move across the northern tier of states late Thursday into Friday.
This will send a cold front our way and increase our chances for
showers and storms from north to south Thursday night through
Friday night. The upper ridge still looks to be strong enough to
slow the southward progression of the surface cold front. The
question is, just how far to the south will this boundary end up.
Regardless, of where it ends up by Saturday, it will begin to move
back to the north on Sunday. With a boundary over/near the area
next weekend, have kept a mention of slight chance/chance PoPs.
Fropa/clouds/rain will knock temperatures back to at or below
average from Friday through next weekend.

At this point, the risk for strong/severe storms looks minimal
with the late week cold front. From a large scale perspective, the
incoming trough is positively tilted, deep layer shear is
marginal (30kt) and MLCAPE is progged to be in the 1500 to 2000
J/kg range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)

Pilots flying in and out of the southwest Missouri airports can
expect VFR conditions over the next 24 hours. Pilots dealing with
the Joplin airport should monitor radar trends early this
afternoon, as a small area of rain could impact this airfield.

Otherwise look for southerly winds gusting up to 25 mph at Joplin
and Springfield this afternoon. Low level wind shear could be in
play tonight as a 40 knot jet develops at around 2000 ft.

Safe Travels.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Cramer
SHORT TERM...Gagan
LONG TERM...Gagan
AVIATION...Cramer



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 603 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGES WITH
SEASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JETS.

WE HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH ONE OF THOSE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROFS AND THIS HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES TO QUARTERS.

DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CHANGE OUR ZONAL FLOW TO MORE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS.

AT 20Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH BRISK SOUTH WINDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 40 TO
60KTS. 850MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12DEG C. AND THERE IS A
LITTLE POOLING OF H7 MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
DEGC/KM. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 10-14DEGC ARE PROGGED
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR/RAP AND HI RES ARW/NMM
ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER 05-07Z. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
LATER NIGHT.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HEAT INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE CAP COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND COULD LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROF WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY CONFINED POP MENTION TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS 1000-2000 J/KG AND THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SOME STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MAINLY HOT AND DRY.
THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG.

HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
THURSDAY.  PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE DURING THE
SHORT TERM. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25KTS SUSTAINED WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF KOFK BETWEEN 21-00Z
TUESDAY...BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE...HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION IN THIS TAF SET. WIND SHEAR
IS THE MAIN CONCERN...WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS JUST OFF THE
SURFACE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY AND RATHER GUSTY SOUTH WINDS RELAXING
ONLY SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT. MIXING SHOULD BRING DOWN GUSTS ON
TUESDAY...BUT UNTIL MID-MORNING...LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MAYES




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

 331 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE IF
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN DEVELOP WITHIN AREA OF WARM
MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROF PASSAGES WITH
SEASONABLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
LEVEL JETS.

WE HAD SOME STORMS DEVELOP THIS MORNING WITH ONE OF THOSE WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROFS AND THIS HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. ONE
WARNING WAS ISSUED WITH HAIL THE SIZE OF DIMES TO QUARTERS.

DEEPENING WEST COAST TROUGH WILL CHANGE OUR ZONAL FLOW TO MORE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE SHORT TERM. THE AREA WILL BE AFFECTED BY WEAK
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS.

AT 20Z...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED NEAR PIERRE SOUTH
DAKOTA WITH BRISK SOUTH WINDS 15-20KTS AND GUSTY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES HAD CLIMBED INTO THE 80S WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN TO 40 TO
60KTS. 850MB MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND 10-12DEG C. AND THERE IS A
LITTLE POOLING OF H7 MOISTURE IN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST
IOWA ALONG WITH FRONTOGENESIS AND STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8
DEGC/KM. WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OF 10-14DEGC ARE PROGGED
ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAKEST IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR/RAP AND HI RES ARW/NMM
ARE STILL FAIRLY DRY. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DEVELOPS SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER 05-07Z. WILL INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA
LATER NIGHT.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD HEAT INTO THE 80S AND
LOWER 90S AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES SHOULD DECREASE DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE 18Z NAM IS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH
THE CAP COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS RUN...AND COULD LIMIT STORM
DEVELOPMENT FURTHER. ISOLATED ELEVATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE SURFACE TROF WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY CONFINED POP MENTION TO PARTS OF NORTHEAST NEBRASKA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGHS TUESDAY SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE 80S TO
LOWER 90S. THE FORECAST INSTABILITY IS 1000-2000 J/KG AND THE
WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA IS CLOSE TO THE MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

SOME STORMS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH FOR NOW HAVE KEPT MAINLY HOT AND DRY.
THE FRONT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTH THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTHEAST
NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA WITH CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500J/KG.

HIGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH
THURSDAY.  PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE DURING THE
SHORT TERM. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS 15-25KTS SUSTAINED WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY FRIDAY WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROF.
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY...AND DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE...COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS SUNDAY.
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT MON SEP 14 2015

LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS.
WINDS SHOULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTN. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AS A 40 TO 60
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
LONG TERM...ZAPOTOCNY
AVIATION...MILLER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

 312 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE GREAT BASIN
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AND A SECOND
SURGE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. FRIDAY WILL BE
THE DRIEST DAY THIS WORK WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS ON
DECK THIS FORECAST PERIOD...SEVERAL SWA`S HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED
THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS A WELL DEFINED
QPF SWATH FROM ELKO COUNTY TO LANDER COUNTY...WHICH IS IN LOCK
STEP WITH THE NAM`S AREA OF CONVERGENCE ON THE 700 MB STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS. EXPECTING MODIFIED PACIFIC AIRMASS TO COLLIDE WITH
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT FROM AN INCOMING VORT MAX. PWS ARE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD RANGING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL ON THE NAEFS STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...WITH
A RETURN INTERVAL OF TWO TO FIVE YEARS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES INLAND...THE U AND V
COMPONENT ANOMALIES SPIKE AGAIN THIS FORECAST PERIOD...PINGING
INTO A 5 YEAR RETURN INTERVAL. THE CAVEAT BEING CLOUD COVERAGE
INHIBITING WINDS FROM MIXING DOWN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY MINOR DIFFERENCES.

TIMING OF SHORT WAVES ORBITING AROUND THE PACNW FULL TROUGH IS THE
PROBLEM O` THE DAY. WITH TIME AND STRENGTH BEING THE ISSUE...WILL
BROADBRUSH A BIT. NO LARGE CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE. RAISED
SNOW LEVELS A HAIR OVER PREVIOUS THINKING AS TONS OF COLD AIR DOES
NOT APPEAR TO WANT TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. CERTAINLY SNOW LEVELS
WILL DROP TO BELOW 9000 IN PLACES IN THE NORTH BUT MOST WILL BE WELL
AWAY FROM ROADS AND POPULATED PLACES. LATE SUMMER MOUNTAIN SNOWS
ARE NICE...UNLESS YOU ARE HUNTING OR HIKING.  USE CAUTION.

LONG RANGE STARTS OUT WITH SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
AND DYNAMICS SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF. THIS QUICKLY
DIES DOWN AS MOISTURE MOVE EAST AND MAIN DYNAMIC ROTATE NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE AREA. THEREAFTER...DRYING AND SLOW WARMING TREND. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY IN THE BEGINNING AND THEN ALSO DIMINISH.

&&

.AVIATION...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE BUT WILL STAY VFR DURING THE DAY
WITH -SHRA AND TS POSSIBLE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH CHANCES AT 30 TO 40
PERCENT. GUSTY WINDS S-SW TODAY ESPECIALLY AT KELY AND KTPH WHERE
GUSTS TO 30 TO 35 KNOTS A GOOD BET. STORMS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
RAINS IN SPOTS. AIRFIELDS MAY GET STANDING WATER AT TIMES.
CONVECTION LASTS OVERNIGHT BUT DIMINISHES BEFORE FIRING UP AGAIN
TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS TO IMPACT THE SILVER
STATE. EXPECT MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO MARRY UP WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM LINDA. MULTIPLE SWA`S
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN
NEVADA TODAY. EXPECT THE MOISTURE TO LINGER...WHICH WILL FUEL TSRA
THE NEXT 60 HRS...RESULTING IN ENAHANCED LALS.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN NYE
COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY.

&&

$$

97/98/98/97