Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 09/13/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
141 PM MST FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA. A TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY
AND MONDAY...RESULTING IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
MINIMAL STORM CHANCES ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO REVEAL DRY NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF ARIZONA...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE PRIMARILY
CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED SOUTH OF YUMA AND PIMA COUNTIES /AND ALONG THE AZ NM
BORDER/ THIS AFTERNOON BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE OR MAKE ANY
PROGRESS TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE ACROSS THE
DESERTS...TEMPERATURES HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 90S AS OF 20Z.
ALL OF THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR BY THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS
OF THE HRRR AS WELL AS THE NCAR ENSEMBLE...LEADING TO A MODERATELY
HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE FOR THIS EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THIS EVENING...LIKEWISE THERE
AREN`T ANY DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS HEADING TOWARD ARIZONA.
ALL GLOBAL AND HI-RES GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND PRIMARILY FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA...THUS POPS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10
PERCENT AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES
AROUND YUMA AND EL CENTRO.
TOMORROW WILL SEE A VERY SIMILAR SETUP WITH MOISTURE MAINLY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE COLORADO RIVER. MODELS BARELY INDICATE 100-250 J/KG
MLCAPE AROUND YUMA AND POINTS WEST ALONG WITH FAIRLY WARM 500MB TEMPS
/-5C/. HARD TO IMAGINE MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS ANYWHERE ON SATURDAY
BUT MUCH LIKE TODAY...I WOULD EXPECT STORMS SOUTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND THERE`S ALWAYS THE THREAT OF COLLIDING
OUTFLOWS AND POP-UP CONVECTION. THUS...SINGLE DIGIT POPS IN PHOENIX
AND 10-15 PERCENT CHANCES TO THE WEST. SIMILAR TEMPERATURE FORECAST
AS WELL...AROUND 100-105.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY HAVE THE MOST POTENTIAL CONVECTIVELY AS AN UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST COAST AND MOISTURE IS DRAWN
NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE MID LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20-25KTS ON SUNDAY...AND CLOSER TO 30-40KTS ON MONDAY. WITH THAT MUCH
WIND IN THE COLUMN...STORMS MAY STAND A CHANCE OF BECOMING ORGANIZED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. MORE PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHERN
AZ. IN RESPONSE...MODELS FORECAST A BELT OF MODERATELY STRONG 850/700
20-25 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS UP THE COLORADO RIVER/FAR WESTERN AZ BOTH
DAYS. THIS WILL NOT ONLY ADVECT MORE MONSOON MOISTURE...BUT PRODUCE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES CHARACTERISTIC OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF OUR AREA FROM PHOENIX WEST TO THE
COLORADO RIVER...EXCLUDING YUMA AND IMPERIAL...AND ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST QUARTER OF AZ. INCREASED PRECIP PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST
AREA-WIDE AGAIN.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
NO SURE ABOUT THESE DAYS...HOWEVER MODELS ARE HINTING THAT
UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR ALOFT FROM THE WEST...AND LESS MONSOON
MOISTURE...MAY STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. THEREFORE NO PRECIP WILL BE
MENTIONED THESE DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
PHOENIX SITES THIS AFTERNOON. SOME VERY ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WELL EAST OF PHOENIX BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE IMPACTS WILL BE
NIL AT THE TERMINALS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL LINGER INTO THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA...BUT GRADUAL CLEARING WILL TAKE
PLACE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND MOSTLY FOLLOW
DIURNAL PATTERNS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
ELEVATED STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS AT LEAST THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION ON MONDAY...BUT DRYING WILL BEGIN TO TAKE
HOLD TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL SHIFT ANY
LINGERING STORM CHANCES INTO THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF PHOENIX ON TUESDAY
WITH MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AREA-WIDE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. HUMIDITY TRENDS WILL CREEP DOWNWARD AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES
ALTHOUGH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD THROUGHOUT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...LEINS
AVIATION...LEINS
FIRE WEATHER...LEINS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1135 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
UPDATED TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LATEST RUNS HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP KEEPING ISOLATED POPS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
...COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS WITH CIGS
FROM 15 TO 2500 FT AGL. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET OVERNIGHT...BUT
A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER SRN BACA COUNTY THIS
MORNING.
MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUD
DECK WILL BE. MODELS NOT TOO HELPFUL AS THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS...FROM THE 00Z NAM WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE PLAINS UNDER
LOW CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TO SOME OF THE HYR RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR...WHICH APPEARS TO BREAK OUT MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY LATE
MORNING. LATEST 06Z NAM SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS THIS MORN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER THAT IS NOT
TERRIBLY DEEP...WITH TOPS FROM 7-9K FEET MSL. CURRENT IR SAT IMAGES
SHOW A RAGGED STRETCH OF LOW CIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE FACTORS
POINT TOWARDS A BIT LESS CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
1026 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SWD
TODAY...KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG ERLY GRADIENT INTACT THROUGH THIS
EVE. MODERATE S-SE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH TYPICALLY IS A RECIPE FOR PERSISTENT LOW CIGS AT
KCOS. NAM MOS GUIDANCE BACKS THIS SCENARIO UP. SO...WILL PLAY THE
MIDDLE ROAD AND KEEP CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. KCOS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST CALL SINCE IT MAY BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY
RATE...CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY LOWER TODAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST SPOTS. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LIKELY WHERE THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKEST...MAINLY OVER THE
BETTER UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE ERN MTS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA.
A COUPLE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OR NR THE
HYR TRRN...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF HEAVY CONVECTION. AREAS W OF
THE SRN FRONT RANGE SHOULD STAY DRY AND WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUN.
WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LOWER CIGS REDEVELOP IN THE EARLY HOURS AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES. BUT BY LATER TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE
SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NW OVER
ERN CO. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLD TS
OVER THE SRN MTS AND RATON MESA AREA OVERNIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE THE JET
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH WITH A FEW SHORT WAVES UNDULATING IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SCANT AT BEST.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ON MONDAY...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED OVER THE
REGION AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE MTNS WITH
ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. A BIT COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN BUT L90S SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...SIMULATIONS SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
SURGES WORKING SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRIM MAX
TEMPS 2-3F DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY
PRECIP...MAINLY ISOLD...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TRRN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
MVFR AND VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AT COS...PUB AND ACROSS
THE LOWER EASTERN SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON UNDER GENERALLY WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW. LATEST MODEL
DATA SUGGESTS ANY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP TO BE FAIRLY
SPOTTY AND REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MAINLY THE SOUTHERN MTS.
COULD SEE MVFR STRATUS REDEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
AT COS...THOUGH WILL KEEP ONLY SCT CLOUDS IN TAFS AT THIS TIME WITH
UPSLOPE FLOW NOT TOO DEEP AND MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE WESTERLY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1005 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
UPDATED TO DIMINISH PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA WITH
LATEST RUNS HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND RAP KEEPING ISOLATED POPS
OVER AND NEAR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
...COOL START TO THE WEEKEND...
CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUD DECK IS SPREADING OVER THE PLAINS WITH CIGS
FROM 15 TO 2500 FT AGL. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE NE BUT NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG. RADAR HAS BEEN PRETTY QUIET OVERNIGHT...BUT
A FEW CONVECTIVE CELLS HAVE MATERIALIZED OVER SRN BACA COUNTY THIS
MORNING.
MAIN QUESTION TODAY IS HOW EXTENSIVE AND PERSISTENT THE LOW CLOUD
DECK WILL BE. MODELS NOT TOO HELPFUL AS THERE IS A WIDE RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS...FROM THE 00Z NAM WHICH KEPT MOST OF THE PLAINS UNDER
LOW CIGS FOR MOST OF THE DAY...TO SOME OF THE HYR RES MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR...WHICH APPEARS TO BREAK OUT MUCH OF THE PLAINS BY LATE
MORNING. LATEST 06Z NAM SOLUTION HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE EXTENT
OF CLOUDS THIS MORN. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A MOIST LAYER THAT IS NOT
TERRIBLY DEEP...WITH TOPS FROM 7-9K FEET MSL. CURRENT IR SAT IMAGES
SHOW A RAGGED STRETCH OF LOW CIGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THESE FACTORS
POINT TOWARDS A BIT LESS CLOUDINESS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE
1026 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE BUILDING SWD
TODAY...KEEPING A FAIRLY STRONG ERLY GRADIENT INTACT THROUGH THIS
EVE. MODERATE S-SE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH TYPICALLY IS A RECIPE FOR PERSISTENT LOW CIGS AT
KCOS. NAM MOS GUIDANCE BACKS THIS SCENARIO UP. SO...WILL PLAY THE
MIDDLE ROAD AND KEEP CLOUDS FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH SOME BREAKS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. KCOS WILL BE THE TRICKIEST CALL SINCE IT MAY BE ON THE
EDGE OF THE CLOUD DECK FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON. AT ANY
RATE...CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS CONSIDERABLY LOWER TODAY...WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO GET INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST SPOTS. A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS
ALSO LIKELY WHERE THE CLOUD DECK IS THICKEST...MAINLY OVER THE
BETTER UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG THE ERN MTS AND ACROSS THE RATON MESA.
A COUPLE STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS OR NR THE
HYR TRRN...BUT NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF HEAVY CONVECTION. AREAS W OF
THE SRN FRONT RANGE SHOULD STAY DRY AND WILL SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SUN.
WILL SEE SOME AREAS OF LOWER CIGS REDEVELOP IN THE EARLY HOURS AS
THE UPSLOPE REGIME CONTINUES. BUT BY LATER TONIGHT WILL START TO SEE
SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE PLAINS...AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NW OVER
ERN CO. WILL SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS EVEN AN ISOLD TS
OVER THE SRN MTS AND RATON MESA AREA OVERNIGHT. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
OVERALL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE THE JET
REMAINING TO OUR NORTH WITH A FEW SHORT WAVES UNDULATING IN THE
GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW. TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...AND PRECIP WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SCANT AT BEST.
EXCEPT FOR A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...IT WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE REGION. MAX TEMPS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S TO L90S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ON MONDAY...SOME MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED OVER THE
REGION AND SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED ACROSS THE MTNS WITH
ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. A BIT COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR
OVER THE HIGHER TRRN BUT L90S SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...SIMULATIONS SHOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
SURGES WORKING SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD TRIM MAX
TEMPS 2-3F DEGREES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. ANY
PRECIP...MAINLY ISOLD...WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER
TRRN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CONTDVD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY PERSISTS THIS MORNING OVER LOW LONG
LOW CIGS WILL LAST AT KCOS AND KPUB TODAY. KPUB WILL BE MOST LIKELY
TO BREAK OUT FROM MVFR CIGS BY 17-19Z...WHILE KCOS COULD STAY MVFR
OR EVEN BRIEFLY IFR FOR A LONGER PORTION OF THE DAY...POSSIBLY INTO
THE MID AFTERNOON PERIOD. LOW CIGS SHOULD RETURN AT LEAST BRIEFLY IN
THE EARLY EVENING LATER TODAY...BEFORE GRADUAL CLEARING OCCURS
TONIGHT... WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z SAT. A FEW STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...BUT MAINLY OVER THE
SRN AND ERN MTS...AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE TAF SITES. KALS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
455 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG A
FRONT PAST OUR AREA THIS MORNING...THEN PULL THIS FRONT OUT TO
SEA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
SATURDAY. MORE WET WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES ACROSS...BUT WILL NOT SEE A TOTAL
WASHOUT. LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MID AND LATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING ANOTHER AROUND OF DRY
AND WARM WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
455 AM UPDATE...
CANCELED THE REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS RI AND
SOUTHEAST MA. WHILE STILL RAINING ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE
INTENSITY IS JUST NOT THERE WHERE ANYTHING BEYOND NUISANCE POOR-
DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALREADY MOVING OFFSHORE THIS MORNING.
GREATEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
BETWEEN 6-10 AM THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL TAKE A LITTLE WHILE
LONGER TO DIMINISH...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATER TODAY. OF ALL THE
GUIDANCE...THOUGHT THE 11/05Z HRRR BEST CAPTURED THE TIMING...AND
MATCHED UP BEST WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. THAT WAS THE BASIS FOR
THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...SO FORECASTING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER FROM OUR REGION. STILL DEALING WITH A
MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL STEER A SHORTWAVE OUR WAY LATE. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RIGHT NOW...
THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUDS...BUT NOT FOR
RAINFALL. KEEPING THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY
* PERIODS OF WET WEATHER SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE
* HIGH PRES RETURNS WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK
OVERVIEW...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SIGNAL LONG WAVE TROUGH WITH
CUTOFF H5 LOW PRES DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL SHIFT
NE DURING SUNDAY-MONDAY TIMEFRAME. SOME TIMING ISSUES REMAIN IN
PUSHING THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE REGION...BUT EXPECT
THIS TO SHIFT NE BY MID TO LATE DAY MONDAY. WITH LIGHT BUT STEADY
ONSHORE WIND IN PLACE ALONG WITH PWATS UP TO 1.9 INCHES CROSSING
THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING A FEW PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN CT VALLEY INTO THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WIND FLOW.
BEYOND THIS...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS REMARKABLY CONSISTENT
IN REDEVELOPING LONG WAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
NATION WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS OUT WEST. THIS WILL BRING A
RETURN OF DRY AND INCREASINGLY WARM CONDITIONS INTO LATE NEXT
WEEK.
DETAILS...
SATURDAY...WILL SEE DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS AS WEAK HIGH PRES
CROSSES THE REGION. MAY SEE LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS PUSH INTO E
SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES INTO THE CT VALLEY SAT AFTERNOON...WITH
AN ISOLD THUNDERSTORM OR TWO POSSIBLE.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROUGH AND CUTOFF LOW WILL
LIFT NE AS IT TENDS TO FLATTEN OUT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRES AND FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS. BEST SHOT FOR
STEADIER PRECIP WILL OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BEGINNING
ACROSS N CT/RI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS MONDAY THEN WILL PUSH
STEADILY NE. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS N
MA AROUND THE ROUTE 2 AREA. COLD POOL WILL PASS N AND W OF THE
REGION...SO TEMPS WILL BE COOLER DURING THE DAY MONDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH OF RAIN ACROSS THE E SLOPES OF THE
BERKSHIRES FROM THIS SYSTEM...RANGING TO ABOUT 0.50 INCHES ALONG E
COAST BEFORE ENDING DURING MONDAY.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MORE DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE THE
RULE ACROSS THE REGION AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRES TAKES OVER.
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RUNNING UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS
BY THURSDAY WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENT MVFR-VLIFR MIX WITH CIGS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH VSBYS BUT EXPECT IFR WITH ANY
SHRA/+SHRA. FOG ALONG WITH LIFR-VLIFR CIGS LIKELY AN ISSUE FOR S
/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. GREATER TSRA RISK WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING DURING THIS MORNING TOWARDS VFR. NE WINDS
INCREASING AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MVFR-LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS MORNING. TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS WITHIN SHELTERED
VALLEYS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LIKE THE CT
RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY PRONE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PATCHY FOG EARLY SAT MORNING WITH LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS THROUGH MID
MORNING...OTHERWISE VFR. WINDS BECOME LIGHT S-SE. MAINLY DRY
FORECAST...THOUGH MAY SEE SCT SHOWERS MOVE INTO WESTERN MA/CT LATE
IN THE DAY.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
AREAS OF MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS LIKELY ACROSS THE
REGION. LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS SAT NIGHT THROUGH
MIDDAY SUNDAY. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO CONTEND WITH SOME
LLWS IMPACTS. MAY SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS MOVE INTO N CT/RI
AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING NE TOWARD DAYBREAK.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MAY SEE PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS N MA EARLY MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE...VFR. W-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. LIGHT W-NW WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF FOG START THE DAY. INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL REACH
20 KNOTS ON OUR EASTERN WATERS AND COULD GET AS STRONG AS 25 KT.
THE N-NE FETCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED
EASTERN WATERS TO 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 6. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS POSTED ON THE OUTER WATERS AND IN MASS BAY...PRIMARILY
FOR SEAS...BUT WITH AN EYE TOWARD THE WINDS AS WELL. EXPANDED THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO CAPE COD BAY FOR A TIME AS WELL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
LIGHT NW WINDS BECOME SE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WIND
GUSTS PICK UP TO AROUND 20 KT WHICH MAY CAUSE SEAS TO BUILD UP TO
AROUND 5 FT ON THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SE WINDS BECOME SW AS LOW PRES MOVES W OF THE WATERS SUNDAY...THEN
SHIFT TO W SUNDAY NIGHT. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT ON THE 4-6 FT ON THE
OUTER WATERS INTO MONDAY...THEN WILL SUBSIDE DURING MON NIGHT.
TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LIGHT W WINDS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
455 AM UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SHOWERS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAIN HIGH. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WERE UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH PER HOUR. AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS MOVING OFFSHORE
ALREADY THIS MORNING...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS CANCELED.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS THIS MORNING COULD STILL PRODUCE NUISANCE
FLOODING OF POOR-DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR ANZ231.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
HYDROLOGY...BELK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
309 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT AND PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT PAST OUR AREA FRIDAY MORNING PULLING
IT OUT TO SEA FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE THAT BRINGS A LULL IN
THE WEATHER SATURDAY. WET-WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT A WASH-
OUT. TURNING DRY AND WARMER INTO NEXT WEEK. POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING
HEAT INTO MID- TO LATE-SEPTEMBER AS ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPS ARE FORECAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS NORTHERN CT AND WESTERN MA.
WHILE STILL RAINING ACROSS THESE AREAS...THE INTENSITY IS JUST NOT
THERE WHERE ANYTHING BEYOND NUISANCE POOR-DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL
BE A CONCERN THROUGH DAYBREAK.
AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS THIS
MORNING. GREATEST SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 6-10 AM THIS MORNING. MOISTURE WILL TAKE A
LITTLE WHILE LONGER TO DIMINISH...BUT SHOULD DO SO LATER TODAY.
OF ALL THE GUIDANCE...THOUGHT THE 11/05Z HRRR BEST CAPTURED THE
TIMING...AND MATCHED UP BEST WITH OBSERVED RADAR TRENDS. THAT WAS
THE BASIS FOR THE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS HAVE AT MOST 0.50-1.00 INCH/HOUR
RAINFALL IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS...WITH MOST SITES REPORTING LESS
THAN 0.25 INCH/HOUR RATES. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE
REMAINING FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRIOR TO ITS 6 AM EXPIRATION TIME.
WILL EVALUATE THAT CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME.
STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS TODAY...SO FORECASTING SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER FROM OUR REGION. STILL DEALING WITH A
MID LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH WILL STEER A SHORTWAVE OUR WAY LATE. THE
BIG QUESTION IS HOW MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. RIGHT NOW...
THINKING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CLOUDS...BUT NOT FOR
RAINFALL. KEEPING THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT DRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
*/ HIGHLIGHTS...
- KEEPING IT DRY ON SATURDAY
- WET WEATHER FOR SUNDAY BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE A WASHOUT EVERYWHERE
- HEAVY RAIN THOUGH MAY IMPACT SE NEW ENGLAND ...HIGH TERRAIN -
DRY AND WARM INTO NEXT WEEK ...POSSIBLE RECORD BREAKING HEAT
*/ DISCUSSION...
KEEPING WITH AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH. H5 DEEP-TROUGH CLOSED LOW SWEEPS
THROUGH THE OHIO-RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY AHEAD OF WHICH THERE IS RIDGE-
AMPLIFICATION KEEPING US MOSTLY DRY WITH LIKELY SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION. LIFTING E SUNDAY DIFFLUENCE PROCEEDS ABOVE
LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT / CONVERGENCE BUT CONVINCED S NEW ENGLAND IS IN
AN AREA OF LESS FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT. TWO AREAS OF INTEREST: THE
CYCLONIC TROWALING ROUND THE CLOSED LOW BACK INTO THE E GREAT LAKES
WHERE DEFORMATION PROCEEDS...AND SE NEW ENGLAND AND POINTS OFFSHORE
WITHIN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHERE HIGH
THETA-E VALUES RESIDE BENEATH DIFFLUENCE AND ENHANCED ASCENT WITH
CONVERGENCE ALONG A STRONG H925-7 JET. S NEW ENGLAND BELOW THE RIGHT-
FRONT-QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LEVEL-JET AND IN THE CROSS-HAIRS OF A
MID-LEVEL DRY-PUNCH WRAPPING INTO THE OCCLUDING SYSTEM PER ENSEMBLE
MEANS LOOKS TO RESULT IN LITTLE OUTCOME OVER THE AREA. IN OTHER
WORDS...NOT APPEARING TO BE A WASHOUT ON SUNDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH ENSEMBLES LIFTING THE TROWAL N OF THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...LESS CONFIDENCE OF OUTCOMES ON MONDAY BENEATH THE COLD POOL
AS THE TROUGH MAY MOVE THRU PRIOR TO BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION.
PERHAPS SOME ACTIVITY UP AGAINST THE W-SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN N OF
OUR AREA WITH W-WIND CONVERGENCE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...CONSISTENT SIGNALS OF RIDGING. THINK
HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION. AGREE WITH THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER WITH ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. ENSEMBLES SIGNAL
ANOMALOUS H85 TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. THINKING THAT WE COULD
BREAK SOME RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO MID- TO LATE-SEPTEMBER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 12Z...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
CONFIDENT MVFR-VLIFR MIX WITH CIGS. LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH VSBYS
BUT EXPECT IFR WITH RA/+RA. FOG ALONG WITH LIFR-VLIFR CIGS LIKELY
AN ISSUE FOR S/SE-COASTAL TERMINALS. GREATER TSRA RISK WILL BE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVEMENT BEGINNING DURING THIS MORNING TOWARDS VFR. NE WINDS
INCREASING AND GUSTING TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COASTS.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECTING MVFR-LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS MORNING. TYPICALLY PRONE TERMINALS WITHIN SHELTERED
VALLEYS LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT LIKE THE CT
RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY PRONE.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF...MAINLY DUE TO TIMING
ISSUES. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. WINDS VEERING E/SE. A MAINLY DRY FORECAST.
SATURDAY NIGHT - SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
MVFR-IFR MIX WITH E/SE-ONSHORE FLOW BACKING SW TOWARDS THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN LIKELY ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE. MAY ALSO CONTEND WITH SOME LLWS IMPACTS.
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
VFR. W/SW-WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TRENDS.
MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN SPECIFIC TIMING.
TODAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE WATERS. SHOWERS
AND AREAS OF FOG START THE DAY. INCREASING NORTH WINDS WILL REACH
20 KNOTS ON OUR EASTERN WATERS AND COULD GET AS STRONG AS 25 KT.
THE N-NE FETCH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BUILD SEAS ON THE EXPOSED
EASTERN WATERS TO 5 FEET...POSSIBLY 6. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
REMAINS POSTED ON THE OUTER WATERS AND IN MASS BAY...PRIMARILY
FOR SEAS...BUT WITH AN EYE TOWARD THE WINDS AS WELL.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WITH SEAS SUBSIDING AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OUTLOOK /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SATURDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
A LULL IN THE WEATHER. WINDS BECOME LIGHT WHILE VEERING E/SE. SHOULD
SEE SEAS SUBSIDE FOR THE PERIOD BELOW 5-FEET.
SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
DEEPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE W. WILL SEE AN ACCOMPANYING WARM
FRONT LIFT N ACROSS THE WATERS BRINGING WITH IT RAIN ALONG WITH
INCREASING E/SE-ONSHORE WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS. WAVE HEIGHTS
BUILDING IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET INITIALLY OVER THE S WATERS EXPANDING
TO THE E/SE WATERS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
MONDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
IMPROVING. WINDS BACK OUT OF THE W/SW AND REMAIN ROBUST WITH A
STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED WELL TO THE W ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. ANOTHER DAY OF GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS WHILE SEAS REMAIN AT OR
IN EXCESS OF 5-FEET ON THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
3 AM UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOWING SHOWERS BECOMING LESS WIDESPREAD FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS MORNING. HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY LEFT ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
THIS MORNING...REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAIN HIGH. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL RATES WERE UP
TO ONE INCH PER HOUR...WITH MOST LOCATIONS LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH PER HOUR. WE MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE REMAINING FLASH FLOOD
WATCH EARLY...DESPITE THE CONTINUING RAINFALL THIS MORNING. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE FOR NUISANCE FLOODING OF POOR-
DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MAZ004>007-012>022-026.
RI...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
RIZ001>007.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ250-254.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT
SATURDAY FOR ANZ255-256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/SIPPRELL
NEAR TERM...BELK
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...SIPPRELL
AVIATION...BELK/SIPPRELL
MARINE...BELK/SIPPRELL
HYDROLOGY...BELK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
237 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
...A WET START TO THE WEEKEND IN THE FORECAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS WE NOW HAVE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. PATTERN
CURRENTLY SHOWS LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST /
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY THE FLOW QUICKLY
DIVING INTO AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE EASTERN STATES. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND CLEARLY EVIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD
DRYING ALOFT IN WV IMAGERY WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE FLOW AS IT
HEADS FOR THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY.
CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS STILL UNDER A WEAKENING
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST MUCH
LONGER AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND
OVER THE STATE FOR SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SW LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING DID NOT SHOW ANYTHING PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT...WITH A PW AROUND 1.6"...AND WEAK TO MODEST LAPSE
RATES. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NATURE COAST WILL KEEP
SEA-BREEZE FOCUS WEAKER AND LIKELY RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
ON THURSDAY. ALSO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WHERE THE BETTER FOCUS
EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IS WHERE WE BELIEVE THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. STILL...EVEN THESE AREA WILL ONLY FORECAST 30-50% POPS
THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THE PATTERN AND RESULTING FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...DEEP LAYER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MAKING A DECENT PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE PENINSULA WILL FADE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...AND SET UP A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE UP
TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO
START GETTING WET BEFORE DAWN. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE UNDER DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF
700-300MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE REGION...BUT
MAXIMIZED FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT...FAVORABLE
RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER SUPPORT
LARGE SCALE RISING MOTION.
SO ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL...WOULD ANTICIPATE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS TO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FROM
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WITH CATEGORICAL 80-100% POPS IN THE
GRIDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL START WITH CHANCE SCT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN RAMP UP TO NUMEROUS LIKELY COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTICS WILL BE WEAKER FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...THESE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE INSOLATION TO
SUPPLEMENT ANY LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH INSTABILITY. WILL
HAVE 60-70% POPS DOWN SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING WE ARE LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 1-1.5" FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND RANGING
DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" FOR CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...KEEP IN
MIND...THAT INDIVIDUAL STRONGER OR TRAINING STORM COMPLEXES COULD
DELIVER LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT GIVEN THE
SYNOPTICS IN PLACE AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL WIND ENERGY THAN IS
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER...A FEW MORE POTENT STORMS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND OF COURSE POSSIBLE
FLOODING. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS SETUP...IS THAT STORM MOTION
WILL BE QUITE FAST...SO UNLESS STORMS ARE TRAINING...ANY HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG OVER ANY ONE PARTICULAR
LOCATION.
&&
.MID/LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY...A DEEPENING TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY SUNDAY MORNING...THEN WILL SLOWLY PROGRESS
NORTHEASTWARD AND CLOSE OFF INTO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NEW YORK BY
SUNDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW SLIGHTLY FILLS AS IT TRAVERSES
NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA. AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS. BY LATE TUESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETS UP OVER
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND WILL BUILD FARTHER WESTWARD INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK.
ON THE SURFACE...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPS OVER THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND EXTENDS A COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A 30-40 KNOT MID LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE
AND FRONTAL LIFT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HEAVY RAINS WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE THE RIVER
FLOODING THAT IS OCCURRING AT SEVERAL LOCAL RIVERS AND WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RISE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
PARENT LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST AND WILL BE
LOCATED BETWEEN MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH AS STRONG
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH...THE FRONT SLOWLY WASHES OUT. WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN SHIFT
TO NORTHEAST AND THEN EASTERLY IN BETWEEN THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT
AND MOIST EASTERLY WIND FLOW...FORECAST PWAT VALUES WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 1.75-2.00 INCHES SO THE ENVIRONMENT WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. WITH AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW...THE HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL COME OVER THE INLAND
AREAS EARLIER IN DAY AND MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND
COASTAL WATERS LATER IN THE EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS
AND RAINFALL...THEN WARMING BACK UP TO NORMAL BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. ANY OF THESE
TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WIDELY SCT STORM DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OFF THE
GULF TOWARD DAWN. KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH SOUTH
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY
AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE WEAKENING NATURE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP ANY ELEVATED WINDS OF SHORT DURATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN TERMS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OR STRONG WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING SATURDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY THIS TIME WILL
HAVE SETTLED TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 85 75 85 / 20 90 70 80
FMY 77 88 76 88 / 20 70 50 70
GIF 75 87 74 86 / 20 80 60 70
SRQ 77 85 76 86 / 20 70 60 80
BKV 74 85 71 86 / 20 100 70 70
SPG 78 85 76 85 / 20 90 70 80
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
MID/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...74/WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1207 PM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
...A WET START TO THE WEEKEND IN THE FORECAST...
.SYNOPSIS...
16Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS WE NOW HAVE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE CONUS...AND THE
AMPLIFICATION WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. PATTERN
CURRENTLY SHOWS LONGWAVE RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC COAST /
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY THE FLOW QUICKLY
DIVING INTO AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE EASTERN STATES. STRONG SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DROPPING DOWN
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND CLEARLY EVIDENT WITH WIDESPREAD
DRYING ALOFT IN WV IMAGERY WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THE FLOW AS IT
HEADS FOR THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY.
CLOSER TO HOME...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IS STILL UNDER A WEAKENING
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT LAST MUCH
LONGER AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND
OVER THE STATE FOR SATURDAY.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN SHIFTED
TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...PROVIDING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SW LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THE 12Z SOUNDING DID NOT SHOW ANYTHING PARTICULARLY
SIGNIFICANT...WITH A PW AROUND 1.6"...AND WEAK TO MODEST LAPSE
RATES. STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE NATURE COAST WILL KEEP
SEA-BREEZE FOCUS WEAKER AND LIKELY RESULT IN LESS CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN
ON THURSDAY. ALSO SIMILAR TO THURSDAY...WHERE THE BETTER FOCUS
EXISTS TO THE SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR IS WHERE WE BELIEVE THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY. STILL...EVEN THESE AREA WILL ONLY FORECAST 30-50% POPS
THROUGH 00Z.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...
THE PATTERN AND RESULTING FORECAST WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SATURDAY. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...DEEP LAYER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT MAKING A DECENT PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LINGERING EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN ZONES OF THE PENINSULA WILL FADE WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...AND SET UP A MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT FOR MUCH
OF THE TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AREA. ONLY EXCEPTIONS WILL BE UP
TOWARD LEVY/CITRUS COUNTY WHERE THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR THINGS TO
START GETTING WET BEFORE DAWN. MUCH BETTER CHANCES FOR OVERNIGHT
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL EXIST OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST
GULF.
BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE UNDER DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST OF
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF
700-300MB QVECTOR CONVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE REGION...BUT
MAXIMIZED FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SUPPORT FOR LIFT...FAVORABLE
RRQ JET DYNAMICS AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL FURTHER SUPPORT
LARGE SCALE RISING MOTION.
SO ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE MARGINAL...WOULD ANTICIPATE AN
EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN/EMBEDDED STORMS TO MOVE ASHORE FROM THE
NORTHEAST GULF DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FROM
TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD WITH CATEGORICAL 80-100% POPS IN THE
GRIDS. FURTHER SOUTH...WILL START WITH CHANCE SCT SHOWERS DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...AND THEN RAMP UP TO NUMEROUS LIKELY COVERAGE
FOR THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SYNOPTICS WILL BE WEAKER FOR OUR
SOUTHERN ZONES...THESE AREA WILL LIKELY SEE MORE INSOLATION TO
SUPPLEMENT ANY LACK OF LARGE SCALE LIFT WITH INSTABILITY. WILL
HAVE 60-70% POPS DOWN SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
GENERALLY SPEAKING WE ARE LOOKING FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY OF 1-1.5" FOR THE NATURE COAST...AND RANGING
DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" FOR CHARLOTTE/LEE COUNTIES. HOWEVER...KEEP IN
MIND...THAT INDIVIDUAL STRONGER OR TRAINING STORM COMPLEXES COULD
DELIVER LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS.
NOT EXPECTED MUCH IN THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT GIVEN THE
SYNOPTICS IN PLACE AND A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL WIND ENERGY THAN IS
NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE OF SEPTEMBER...A FEW MORE POTENT STORMS ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER STORMS
WOULD BE LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND OF COURSE POSSIBLE
FLOODING. ONE GOOD THING ABOUT THIS SETUP...IS THAT STORM MOTION
WILL BE QUITE FAST...SO UNLESS STORMS ARE TRAINING...ANY HEAVIER
POCKETS OF RAIN SHOULD NOT LAST TOO LONG OVER ANY ONE PARTICULAR
LOCATION.
&&
.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...
AN UPPER LOW IN THE OHIO VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SAT
NIGHT TROUGHS DOWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE REFLECTION
OF THE UPPER LOW IS BETWEEN THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES AND TRAILS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THEN
WEST ALONG NORTHERN GULF WATERS. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES WEST...REACHING THE BAHAMAS.
SUN-MON: THE UPPER LOW AND IT/S TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD...TO
NEW ENGLAND OR THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...WHILE A RIDGE OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUILDS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE SURFACE LOW
MOVES TO NEW BRUNSWICK/NOVA SCOTIA WITH THE FRONT ARCING OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION WEAKENING AND SAGGING
SOUTH OVER THE GULF AND NORTHERN FL. THE MID CONUS HIGH TREKS EAST
TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER- STORMS WILL TREND DOWN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS. SOME OF THE STORMS...ESPECIALLY SUN...MAY BECOME
ROBUST WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AN INITIAL
WESTERLY FLOW VEERS TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LOWS...THE HIGHS WILL
STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL THANKS TO RAINFALL AND CLOUDS.
TUE-THU: THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD WEST AND SPREADS
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND GULF BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING
SOUTH ON THU. THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS ON THE COAST THROUGH WED
THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE THU. THE FRONT...BY NOW MORE OF MOISTURE
BOUNDARY...SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTH DOWN FL AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN.
DESPITE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN THE DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW...AS THE HIGH TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO
DOMINATE...WILL PROVIDE ADEQUATE MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT LOCALLY NUMEROUS. TIMING WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENINGS. TEMPERATURES RUN
JUST ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LOWS...THE HIGHS WILL FLUCTUATE AROUND
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A SCATTERING OF SHOWERS HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AROUND KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. ANY OF THESE
TERMINALS MAY SEE A BRIEF DOWNPOUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WIDELY SCT STORM DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OFF THE
GULF TOWARD DAWN. KTPA/KPIE/KLAL/KSRQ EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
THROUGHOUT SATURDAY...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL WEAKEN AND PUSH SOUTH
LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN WEAKEN QUICKLY
AS IT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH DURING SUNDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT. WINDS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH CAUTIONARY LEVELS TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE WEAKENING NATURE OF
THE FRONT SHOULD KEEP ANY ELEVATED WINDS OF SHORT DURATION.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN TERMS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OR STRONG WINDS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING SATURDAY...WITH THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. MORE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BY THIS TIME WILL
HAVE SETTLED TO THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 85 75 85 / 20 90 70 80
FMY 77 88 76 89 / 20 70 50 60
GIF 75 87 73 87 / 20 80 50 70
SRQ 77 85 75 87 / 20 70 70 80
BKV 74 85 71 85 / 20 100 70 70
SPG 78 85 76 85 / 20 90 70 80
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...RUDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS LINCOLN IL
843 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
The rather deep upper trof that produced the scattered showers and
isolated storms this afternoon across east central and southeast
IL has shifted east of the forecast area early this evening. High
pressure to our northwest will track slowly across the area over
the next 12 hours bringing clear and calm conditions for the
overnight hours along with chilly early morning lows. Temperatures
early this evening have already dropped to near 50 at Galesburg
with most of the remainder of the area in the middle 50s this
hour.
Had to make some minor tweaks to the temperature trends this eve
due to the rapid temp fall over the past couple of hours with a
few downward adjustments to the early morning lows as well. Surface
ridge axis by morning forecast to be over extreme western IL before
shifting off to our east by afternoon, allowing winds to gradually
become southwest signaling the onset of a warming trend that
should last well into the new work week. Updated ZFP will be out
by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Vorticity maximum centered between Springfield and Decatur this
afternoon per water vapor imagery, within the deep upper trough that
covers much of the Midwest. RAP guidance shows a cold pocket of 500
mb temps near -24C just south of this, which has helped feed the
scattered showers that have formed over east central and southeast
Illinois. Drier air in the lower levels have resulted in a bit of
small hail accompanying the heavier showers. Other showers near
Champaign have been tracking south-southwest off Lake Michigan with
more behind them, although wind trajectories are starting to turn
more northerly and the lake feed should shift more to along the
Indiana border. The diurnal cloudiness is fading some across the far
northern CWA, and should rapidly dissipate over the forecast area by
sunset, with mostly clear conditions prevailing overnight. Still
looks to be a cool night, with temperatures falling into the mid
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Morning upper air and moisture channel data depicts deep upper level
over Great Lakes into sotheast MO. Series of weak vort maxes/lobes
in the mid MS river valley rotating through the bottom of the trof,
with main max near Quad Cities moving SSE. With ample low level
moisture, and cold air aloft, scattered showers over the eastern
portions of cwa today, lingering into evening.
Models drift the upper trof to the east into Sunday, allowing
warming low and mid level flow to begin to work into state. Upper
ridge begins to build toward area and slow warming trend into
midweek.
In the extended period, models have agreed a bit more on slowing of
the approaching next frontal system. System approaches now Friday,
with pops delayed into Thursday night, with better chances for rain
Friday and Friday night with front, on the latest run. A bit cooler
with the increased cloud cover with front. Exact details on frontal
passage still somewhat hazy.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Clouds
are expected to dissipate quickly this evening leaving a mostly
clear sky overnight as high pressure settles in. The gusty
northerly winds will diminish quickly as well this evening and
become nearly calm overnight as the large fair weather system
drifts over the forecast area. Look for light winds thru tomorrow
morning to gradually shift into the southwest during the afternoon
with speeds up to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
607 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Vorticity maximum centered between Springfield and Decatur this
afternoon per water vapor imagery, within the deep upper trough that
covers much of the Midwest. RAP guidance shows a cold pocket of 500
mb temps near -24C just south of this, which has helped feed the
scattered showers that have formed over east central and southeast
Illinois. Drier air in the lower levels have resulted in a bit of
small hail accompanying the heavier showers. Other showers near
Champaign have been tracking south-southwest off Lake Michigan with
more behind them, although wind trajectories are starting to turn
more northerly and the lake feed should shift more to along the
Indiana border. The diurnal cloudiness is fading some across the far
northern CWA, and should rapidly dissipate over the forecast area by
sunset, with mostly clear conditions prevailing overnight. Still
looks to be a cool night, with temperatures falling into the mid
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Morning upper air and moisture channel data depicts deep upper level
over Great Lakes into sotheast MO. Series of weak vort maxes/lobes
in the mid MS river valley rotating through the bottom of the trof,
with main max near Quad Cities moving SSE. With ample low level
moisture, and cold air aloft, scattered showers over the eastern
portions of cwa today, lingering into evening.
Models drift the upper trof to the east into Sunday, allowing
warming low and mid level flow to begin to work into state. Upper
ridge begins to build toward area and slow warming trend into
midweek.
In the extended period, models have agreed a bit more on slowing of
the approaching next frontal system. System approaches now Friday,
with pops delayed into Thursday night, with better chances for rain
Friday and Friday night with front, on the latest run. A bit cooler
with the increased cloud cover with front. Exact details on frontal
passage still somewhat hazy.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
VFR conditions are expected through this forecast period. Clouds
are expected to dissipate quickly this evening leaving a mostly
clear sky overnight as high pressure settles in. The gusty
northerly winds will diminish quickly as well this evening and
become nearly calm overnight as the large fair weather system
drifts over the forecast area. Look for light winds thru tomorrow
morning to gradually shift into the southwest during the afternoon
with speeds up to 10 kts.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1228 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Back edge of precipitation shield is now generally east of a
Bloomington to Springfield line, and the clearing line is trying
to penetrate the Illinois River Valley. However, clouds are
increasing a bit over northern Illinois in response to a
shortwave swinging southeast across Iowa, and latest RAP model
guidance indicates periods of diurnal clouds through the afternoon
across the western CWA as the associated cold air aloft settles
into the area. Much of this area should remain dry this
afternoon, but the wind trajectory off Lake Michigan will combine
with the trough to keep clouds and some showers lingering across
the east through the afternoon. A couple thunderstorms may occur
as well with some higher lapse rates aloft.
Recent zone/grid update updated the precipitation trends, and
nudged high temperatures down a bit across the east where the
clouds will persist the longest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
A weakening MCS over Missouri continues to move east toward southern
IL early this morning while an upper level shortwave approaches
central IL via Iowa. A cold front at the surface has pushed
southward to around I-64 however convergence aloft due to the
interaction of the above features is triggering numerous
thunderstorms across central IL. Modest instability generally under
500 J/kg according to SPC mesoscale analysis has kept most of the
storms fairly weak to moderate...however some heavy rainfall
corridors have developed due to orientation of repeated
thunderstorms. This system will gradually move eastward through the
early afternoon with thunderstorms tapering off from west to east.
Meanwhile...much colder air aloft moving into the region from the
north will bring lake effect rain showers off of Lake
Michigan...some of these could trigger a some more showers and
isolated thunder out to Vermilion and Champaign counties and this is
hinted at by several models. Highs today will only reach the lower
70s given the cooler post frontal air mass which has moved in.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Much cooler temperatures expected this weekend due to strong upper
level trof/low pressure digging southward from the western great
lakes into IL/IN and ohio river valley through Saturday. Have a
slight chance of showers into mid evening from Bloomington to
Champaign to Paris northeast. Then isolated chances of showers
returns on Sat with partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy north
winds, especially east of the IL river with best chances over east
central IL. Lows tonight in the upper 40s/lower 50s with mildest
readings south of I-72. Cool highs Saturday mostly in the mid 60s.
Strong upper level trof pushes east of IL Sat night and Sunday while
1025 mb Canadian high pressure over ND settles into the mid MS river
valley Sunday morning. Clouds and wind decrease Sat night and sets
us up for cooler night with lows 43-48F. A pleasant day expected
Sunday with ample sunshine and highs in the lower 70s, expect a few
upper 60s in eastern IL. Not quite as cool Sunday night as high
pressure slips SE of IL toward the central Appalachians. Lows
around 50F in eastern IL and mid 50s near the MS river valley of
west central IL.
00Z medium and extended range models show upper level high pressure
ridge building across the eastern U.S. Monday through Wed and
providing dry and warmer weather to IL. Highs Monday in the mid to
upper 70s with west central IL near 80F, climb into the lower 80s
Tue and mid 80s Wed and back to the lower 80s Thu. A cold front to
push into the southern Great Lakes by sunset Thursday and to bring
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Thu/Fri.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Saturday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Large deck of MVFR ceilings is persisting east of a KSTL-KIKK line
and settling southward, with the area west of there seeing some
brief MVFR conditions as diurnal clouds become more elevated. Have
kept some MVFR ceilings in the TAF`s for a couple more hours,
before the larger cloud deck exits the area. Will likely be a
period of clear skies early tonight, but more clouds will stream
southward as a deep upper trough passes overhead. Forecast
soundings show these mainly above 5000 feet, although KCMI will be
closer to the low end of VFR conditions as a persistent wind
trajectory comes off Lake Michigan. This may also result in some
showers Saturday morning.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Geelhart
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1008 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Back edge of precipitation shield is now generally east of a
Bloomington to Springfield line, and the clearing line is trying
to penetrate the Illinois River Valley. However, clouds are
increasing a bit over northern Illinois in response to a
shortwave swinging southeast across Iowa, and latest RAP model
guidance indicates periods of diurnal clouds through the afternoon
across the western CWA as the associated cold air aloft settles
into the area. Much of this area should remain dry this
afternoon, but the wind trajectory off Lake Michigan will combine
with the trough to keep clouds and some showers lingering across
the east through the afternoon. A couple thunderstorms may occur
as well with some higher lapse rates aloft.
Recent zone/grid update updated the precipitation trends, and
nudged high temperatures down a bit across the east where the
clouds will persist the longest.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
A weakening MCS over Missouri continues to move east toward southern
IL early this morning while an upper level shortwave approaches
central IL via Iowa. A cold front at the surface has pushed
southward to around I-64 however convergence aloft due to the
interaction of the above features is triggering numerous
thunderstorms across central IL. Modest instability generally under
500 J/kg according to SPC mesoscale analysis has kept most of the
storms fairly weak to moderate...however some heavy rainfall
corridors have developed due to orientation of repeated
thunderstorms. This system will gradually move eastward through the
early afternoon with thunderstorms tapering off from west to east.
Meanwhile...much colder air aloft moving into the region from the
north will bring lake effect rain showers off of Lake
Michigan...some of these could trigger a some more showers and
isolated thunder out to Vermilion and Champaign counties and this is
hinted at by several models. Highs today will only reach the lower
70s given the cooler post frontal air mass which has moved in.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Much cooler temperatures expected this weekend due to strong upper
level trof/low pressure digging southward from the western great
lakes into IL/IN and ohio river valley through Saturday. Have a
slight chance of showers into mid evening from Bloomington to
Champaign to Paris northeast. Then isolated chances of showers
returns on Sat with partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy north
winds, especially east of the IL river with best chances over east
central IL. Lows tonight in the upper 40s/lower 50s with mildest
readings south of I-72. Cool highs Saturday mostly in the mid 60s.
Strong upper level trof pushes east of IL Sat night and Sunday while
1025 mb Canadian high pressure over ND settles into the mid MS river
valley Sunday morning. Clouds and wind decrease Sat night and sets
us up for cooler night with lows 43-48F. A pleasant day expected
Sunday with ample sunshine and highs in the lower 70s, expect a few
upper 60s in eastern IL. Not quite as cool Sunday night as high
pressure slips SE of IL toward the central Appalachians. Lows
around 50F in eastern IL and mid 50s near the MS river valley of
west central IL.
00Z medium and extended range models show upper level high pressure
ridge building across the eastern U.S. Monday through Wed and
providing dry and warmer weather to IL. Highs Monday in the mid to
upper 70s with west central IL near 80F, climb into the lower 80s
Tue and mid 80s Wed and back to the lower 80s Thu. A cold front to
push into the southern Great Lakes by sunset Thursday and to bring
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Thu/Fri.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Saturday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this morning across
central IL. IFR/MVFR conditions and isolated TSRA are mainly
confined to areas SE of KDEC-KCMI. Conditions will continue to
improve from west to east through afternoon as the current system
shifts eastward. However...continued lake effect rain showers may
linger as far west as KCMI through evening from a band extending
off of Lake Michigan. Clearing expected overnight as a shortwave
high pressure ridge aloft crosses the area. Winds north
throughout the period...generally 6-12 kts. Gusts 16-20 kts during
afternoon today.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Geelhart
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Onton
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
335 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
A weakening MCS over Missouri continues to move east toward southern
IL early this morning while an upper level shortwave approaches
central IL via Iowa. A cold front at the surface has pushed
southward to around I-64 however convergence aloft due to the
interaction of the above features is triggering numerous
thunderstorms across central IL. Modest instability generally under
500 J/kg according to SPC mesoscale analysis has kept most of the
storms fairly weak to moderate...however some heavy rainfall
corridors have developed due to orientation of repeated
thunderstorms. This system will gradually move eastward through the
early afternoon with thunderstorms tapering off from west to east.
Meanwhile...much colder air aloft moving into the region from the
north will bring lake effect rain showers off of Lake
Michigan...some of these could trigger a some more showers and
isolated thunder out to Vermilion and Champaign counties and this is
hinted at by several models. Highs today will only reach the lower
70s given the cooler post frontal air mass which has moved in.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
Much cooler temperatures expected this weekend due to strong upper
level trof/low pressure digging southward from the western great
lakes into IL/IN and ohio river valley through Saturday. Have a
slight chance of showers into mid evening from Bloomington to
Champaign to Paris northeast. Then isolated chances of showers
returns on Sat with partly to mostly cloudy skies and breezy north
winds, especially east of the IL river with best chances over east
central IL. Lows tonight in the upper 40s/lower 50s with mildest
readings south of I-72. Cool highs Saturday mostly in the mid 60s.
Strong upper level trof pushes east of IL Sat night and Sunday while
1025 mb Canadian high pressure over ND settles into the mid MS river
valley Sunday morning. Clouds and wind decrease Sat night and sets
us up for cooler night with lows 43-48F. A pleasant day expected
Sunday with ample sunshine and highs in the lower 70s, expect a few
upper 60s in eastern IL. Not quite as cool Sunday night as high
pressure slips se of IL toward the central Appalachians. Lows around
50F in eastern IL and mid 50s near the MS river valley of west
central IL.
00Z medium and extended range models show upper level high pressure
ridge building across the eastern U.S. Monday through Wed and
providing dry and warmer weather to IL. Highs Monday in the mid to
upper 70s with west central IL near 80F, climb into the lower 80s
Tue and mid 80s Wed and back to the lower 80s Thu. A cold front to
push into the southern Great Lakes by sunset Thursday and to bring
an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Thu/Fri.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Friday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
Forecast a bit more complicated late tonight that what we saw late
this afternoon as a period of clear skies across the northeast
half of our forecast area has led to some patchy fog to the north
of the TAF sites. The last few runs of the HRRR model has taken
and run with the idea of low stratu and vsbys advecting south
overnight with MVFR and IFR cigs and vsbys, but that is the only
solution I have seen to be so aggressive with the lowering of the
cigs and vsbys. Forecast soundings off the operational models not
showing much if any low cigs across the area late tonight into
Friday morning as an upper level wave interacts with the cold
front passing across our area late this evening bringing thicker
cloud cover back into the forecast area and a return to showers
and isold tsra. The rain itself may be enough to temporarily lower
cigs at times tomorrow morning before a drying trend works in
during the afternoon. Look for light east to northeast winds to
turn more northerly on Friday and increase to 12 to 17 kts by
afternoon with a few gusts at or above 20 kts during the
afternoon, before we see a diminishing trend during the evening.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Onton
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1250 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 955 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL KY STILL LOOKS
GOOD ACCORDING TO THE LATEST OBS, NAM, AND HRRR GUIDANCE. A GOOD
BUBBLE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SUBSIDENCE FROM A SFC
HIGH OVER THAT REGION CONTINUE TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR DENSE FOG
FORMATION. IN FACT SOME LIGHT FOG HAS ALREADY STARTED TO FORM NEAR
LONDON, KY. LIGHT PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE WITH LOW TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015
POPCORN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST WILL FALL APART AS THE SUN
LOWERS IN THE SKY THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION OF THE CU
FIELD AS THE SUN SETS. THIS WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM
WINDS TONIGHT, SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG. SOME DRY LOW LEVEL
AIR LOOKS TO SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH, BUT SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA WILL NOT BENEFIT FROM THAT AIR AND ALSO SAW QUITE A BIT OF RAIN
EARLIER TODAY TO ADD TO GROUND MOISTURE. AFTER CONFERRING WITH JKL,
HAVE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND PUT OUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE
CWA...GENERALLY FROM THE LAKE CUMBERLAND REGION TO SOUTH/EAST OF
LEXINGTON. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE AS WELL, BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CONFINED TO SPOTS THAT FOG IN EASILY AND SHOULDN`T BE QUITE
AS WIDESPREAD AS IN THE ADVISORY COUNTIES.
TOMORROW AN UNSEASONABLE UPPER TROF WILL COME IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. WE MAY GET SOME GUSTY SHOWERS AND PEA SIZED HAIL
IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE LAPSE
RATES WILL BE A LITTLE STEEPER. WE`RE ALREADY SEEING THIS TO OUR
WEST WITH ACTIVITY IN MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 80.
RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 50S.
.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM IS THE UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND.
A VERY ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DIVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ANOMALIES WITH THIS FEATURE ARE
ROUGHLY 4 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR HEIGHTS AND TEMPS.
WITHIN THE DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND CRASHING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...
THERE COULD BE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS OR PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE MAIN NEGATIVE FACTOR TO MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS IS LIMITED AND SHALLOW MOISTURE...AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ONLY AROUND 0.75 INCH DURING THE DAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS DO SHOW ABOUT 100 MB OF HIGHER RH
BETWEEN 700 AND 800 MB. THINKING THAT WE WILL SEE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
STRATO CU CLOUDS FORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS AT TIMES. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE 20-30 PERCENT POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT WILL BE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH 70 IN MOST PLACES ALONG WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST
BREEZES. THESE HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR ON SATURDAY AND 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...AND A SOLID 20 TO 25 DEGREES COLDER THAN JUST EARLIER THIS
WEEK. RECORD LOWS AND COLD MAXIMUMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE IN JEOPARDY AT ANY OF THE OFFICIAL SITES.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...ESPECIALLY WEST OF
I-65...SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS REACHING THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
AND SURFACE HIGH ADVANCE EASTWARD THOUGH WE WILL STILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70.
FOR NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT BUILD AS RELATIVELY
WEAK WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH IN RESPONSE...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL MODERATION
IN TEMPERATURES. NO MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON THROUGH
AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK...BUT EVENTUALLY RETURN SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO ALOFT COULD BRING WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO PARTS OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS FOG POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN BWG AND
LEX. DRIER AIR HAS STARTED TO FILTER IN AND WE HAVE 5F TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS, SO WILL NOT HIT IT THAT HARD. WILL CARRY A FEW HRS OF MVFR
VIS AROUND DAYBREAK, WHILE HEAT ISLAND EFFECTS KEEP SDF
UNRESTRICTED.
OTHER CONCERN IS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/T-STORM POTENTIAL AS
THE NEXT UPPER IMPULSE SWINGS THROUGH. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TIMING OR IMPACTS TO INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WE WILL CARRY VCTS/CB FROM 20-21Z WELL INTO THE EVENING. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS FOR NOW, AT LEAST UNTIL WE CAN BETTER NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING. WNW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WILL COME AROUND TO NNW LATER IN
THE EVENING, BUT LESS THAN 10 KT OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ056-057-066-067-077-078-081-082.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........AMS
SHORT TERM.....13
LONG TERM......TWF
AVIATION.......RAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
628 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR TERMINAL SITES
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...INCLUDING KTYR...KLFK...KGGG...KMLU...KLFK
AND KSHV WITH FOG/FG REDUCING VISIBILITY TO ONE HALF TO ONE
QUARTER OF AN MILE. KTXK AND KELD MAY SEE BRIEF MIST/BR BUT WITH
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS OF 3-5 STATUTE MILES. FLIGHT CATEGORIES
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING TO MVFR AND
THEN MOSTLY VFR BY MID DAY TO EARLY AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FOUR STATE REGION DURING THE DAY PROVIDING
COOLER AND DRIER AIR. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BOUNDARY. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH SHIFTINGTHE
WINDS TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST 5-8 KNOTS. /21/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 5 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/
.DISCUSSION...
OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT S/SW OR CALM WITH MUGGY UPPER 60S OR
LOWER 70 DEW POINTS FOR MOST OF THE FOUR STATE AREA. SOME LOWER
60S LINGER NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITH LOW TO MID 60S. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE WISE...COOLER NORTH OF THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
SKIES ARE FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH
WHERE SOILS ARE FRESHLY DAMP.
THE KSHV 88D IS QUIET...BUT THERE IS SOME DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG
OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...GUST FRONTS ARE SEEN ON RADAR MOSAICS MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN PRECIP AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BASED ON
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING AND
WITH HEATING ALL AFTERNOON. THE NAM EVEN GOES WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT IS STILL FAR TO THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COMING WILL BE THE MAIN...BUT NOT THE ONLY FOCUS WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL VARIATIONS AND GOOD HEATING STILL LIKELY. THE
CURRENT SURFACE FLOW IS VERY SHALLOW AS OUR VAD PROFILER IS
SHOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS FROM 1KFT ON UP.
THE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE
WITH EVEN HRRR SHOWING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-30 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SO CHECK THE RADAR FOR ALL
OUTDOOR PLANS INTO THE EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS LIKEWISE WITH SOME
DECENT QPF STILL AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL...QPF IS LIGHT
FROM WPC AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF AND PERHAPS MORE SHOWERY
THAN THUNDERY.OUR LAST SOUNDING WAS DRY ALOFT...BUT WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON APPROACH POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BE THINNING BACK TO DRIER SOONER
THAN THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD FRONT.
THE SPC HAS A GENERAL LINE FAR TO OUR NORTH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEW COLD FRONT SEEN WELL WITH 50 DEW POINTS FROM KN INTO N MO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LATE SEPTEMBER FALL FEEL FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A NICE CHANGE OF SEASON EARLY. HOWEVER...WE COULD
USE ANY AND ALL RAINFALL AS THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING BACK
A DRY PATTERN ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THEN...THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND GOOD
LATE SUMMER HEATING TO RETURN BY MID AND THROUGH LATE WEEK. /24/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 68 84 57 / 30 50 10 0
MLU 92 66 82 53 / 20 60 10 0
DEQ 90 60 81 52 / 40 20 0 0
TXK 92 63 81 54 / 30 20 0 0
ELD 91 62 79 52 / 30 40 0 0
TYR 93 67 83 59 / 30 50 10 0
GGG 93 67 83 57 / 30 50 10 0
LFK 92 71 87 58 / 30 50 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
500 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
OUR SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT S/SW OR CALM WITH MUGGY UPPER 60S OR
LOWER 70 DEW POINTS FOR MOST OF THE FOUR STATE AREA. SOME LOWER
60S LINGER NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT WITH LOW TO MID 60S. AIR
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKE WISE...COOLER NORTH OF THE OLD STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW TO MID 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20.
SKIES ARE FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME PATCHY FOG MAINLY SOUTH
WHERE SOILS ARE FRESHLY DAMP.
THE KSHV 88D IS QUIET...BUT THERE IS SOME DRIZZLE WITH THE FOG
OVER DEEP EAST TEXAS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER...GUST FRONTS ARE SEEN ON RADAR MOSAICS MOVING OUT AHEAD
OF THE MAIN PRECIP AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BASED ON
GUIDANCE. THE HRRR SHOWS SOME NEW DEVELOPMENT BY MID MORNING AND
WITH HEATING ALL AFTERNOON. THE NAM EVEN GOES WELL INTO THE
EVENING HOURS AS THE FRONT IS STILL FAR TO THE NORTH. THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY COMING WILL BE THE MAIN...BUT NOT THE ONLY FOCUS WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL VARIATIONS AND GOOD HEATING STILL LIKELY. THE
CURRENT SURFACE FLOW IS VERY SHALLOW AS OUR VAD PROFILER IS
SHOWING NORTHERLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS FROM 1KFT ON UP.
THE MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO SCOUR UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES LATE
WITH EVEN HRRR SHOWING SOME WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I-30 INTO THE EARLY EVENING. SO CHECK THE RADAR FOR ALL
OUTDOOR PLANS INTO THE EVENING. THE GFS SHOWS LIKEWISE WITH SOME
DECENT QPF STILL AT THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. OVERALL...QPF IS LIGHT
FROM WPC AND ACTIVITY SHOULD BE BRIEF AND PERHAPS MORE SHOWERY
THAN THUNDERY.OUR LAST SOUNDING WAS DRY ALOFT...BUT WITH MID
AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ON APPROACH POOLING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THE UPPER LEVELS SHOULD BE THINNING BACK TO DRIER SOONER
THAN THE REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE OLD FRONT.
THE SPC HAS A GENERAL LINE FAR TO OUR NORTH RIGHT AHEAD OF THE
NEW COLD FRONT SEEN WELL WITH 50 DEW POINTS FROM KN INTO N MO.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FOR A LATE SEPTEMBER FALL FEEL FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH A NICE CHANGE OF SEASON EARLY. HOWEVER...WE COULD
USE ANY AND ALL RAINFALL AS THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING BACK
A DRY PATTERN ALONG WITH THE COOLER AIR INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BY THEN...THE GULF OPENS UP A BIT WITH SOME MOISTURE AND GOOD
LATE SUMMER HEATING TO RETURN BY MID AND THROUGH LATE WEEK. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 68 84 57 / 30 50 10 0
MLU 92 66 82 53 / 20 60 10 0
DEQ 90 60 81 52 / 40 20 0 0
TXK 92 63 81 54 / 30 20 0 0
ELD 91 62 79 52 / 30 40 0 0
TYR 93 67 83 59 / 30 50 10 0
GGG 93 67 83 57 / 30 50 10 0
LFK 92 71 87 58 / 30 50 10 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
952 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP US IN A COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE AND
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1000PM UPDATE...MODIFIED POPS IN LINE WITH LATEST RADAR IMAGERY
AND HIRES MODEL OUTPUT. SOUTHERN EDGE OF RAIN SHIELD IS SLOWLY
WITHERING AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT CRAWLS NORTHWARD. EXPECT TREND
OF DECREASING COVERAGE TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN MODIFIED WITH LATEST LAMP AND HRRR NUMBERS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AREA OF DEFORMATION OVER EASTERN OHIO HAS HELPED TO SUPPORT A RAIN
BAND FROM ERIE BACK TO ZZV FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. WHILE
THIS HAS MOVED VERY LITTLE...THE RAIN RATES HAVE YET TO BE
IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY CONCERN. EXPECT THAT THIS BAND
SHOULD START TO TRANSITION EASTWARD WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
DRIVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THE HRRR...RUC...AND
NAM SUPPORT THIS. HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS BAND AND FURTHER SHOWERS FROM
COOL NORTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING LAKE ENHANCED SHOWERS.
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND 850HPA TEMPERATURES FALLING TOWARD 3C
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY...WITH HIGHS LIKELY TO
TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 60`S. TONIGHTS LOWS WERE CONSTRUCTED
FROM MAV/MET VALUES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY MAINTAINING
THE OCTOBER-LIKE WEATHER. LINGERING MOISTURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW
OFF OF THE LAKES SHOULD SUPPORT STRATOCU AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS...SLIGHT CHANCE PRECIP PROBS
WERE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE TWEAKED TOWARD
GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH WERE FORECAST AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES.
THE TROUGH IS PROJECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD RAPIDLY BY LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY AS IT IS REPLACED BY RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE
SURFACE. WITH HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY AND PLENTY OF
SUN...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO AND SURPASS NORMAL VALUES BY
TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGING IS PROGGED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS THE RIDGE SLIDES
EAST BY LATE WEEK...ZONAL FLOW IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW COULD RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION BY
NEXT WEEKEND. WPC ENSEMBLE BASED GUIDANCE WAS USED FOR THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPS.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT AT MOST
LOCATIONS. RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH AND DEFORMATION ZONE BECOMES
MORE DIFFUSE...BUT PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
ALLOW RESTRICTIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. IMPROVEMENT WILL
WAIT UNTIL 14/15Z AS TROUGH AXIS ROTATES OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO MVFR BY NOON...AND THEN VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS BREAK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS...AND
THEN PICK UP ONCE AGAIN OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20
KNOTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
FOG MAY BE POSSIBLE MONDAY OR TUESDAY MORNING IF WINDS DIMINISH
SUFFICIENTLY. OTHERWISE...NO WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1140 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
.UPDATE:
Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2015
Have increased PoPs across ern portions of the CWA where TSRA
continue to drop swd into the region. Outflow boundaries will
continue to make wwd extent of precip challenging, but believe
bulk of precip will remain E of the Mississippi River. Storms shud
weaken with sunset. Minimal svr threat continues. Remainder of
forecast for tonight currently appears to be on track.
&&
.SHORT TERM: (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2015
Spotty convection will continue across most of the FA early
this evening due to numerous outflow/surface boundaries migrating
through mostly unstable airmass of MLCAPES 1000-2000 j/kg. However,
still believe the primary "show" will be late this evening and
overnight as primary shortwave energy digs into the region and
begins to interact with southward sagging cold front/baroclinic
zone. Last several runs of the HRRR continue to support idea that
convection over NE will drop/develop across e KS and w MO during the
early evening hours as UVV increases due to shortwave as well as
increasing isentropic ascent, with the resultant elevated shower
and embedded thunderstorm threat overspreading much of the CWA
during the overnight hours. Have highest PoPs (~80%) over mid MO
where lift and moisture advection should be maximized...this is a
bit higher/bit further north than earlier forecast, but models are
still indicating good divergence developing across northern MO in
the RRQ of the back building upper level jet. PoPs then taper off
to high chance over far northern and southern sections of the FA as
precip should tend to "fade" a bit as it advects out of the primary
zone of ascent.
Truett
.LONG TERM: (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 338 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2015
Even though frontal boundary will be south of forecast area by 12z
Friday, will see some lingering post frontal precipitation gradually
tapering off from north to south, including some isolated
thunderstorms. Otherwise, colder air to filter into the region and
with plenty of cloud cover and rain, temperatures will only rise
into the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Dry and colder weather to prevail through the weekend. Could see a
stray shower on Saturday as decent shortwave energy rotates around
upper level trof that is anchored over the Great Lakes. For now have
dry conditions, but will need to keep an eye on the models as we get
closer to this time period.
By Sunday night surface ridge will begin to move off to the
southeast. This will allow southerly winds to return once again and
temperatures moderate back into the 80s by Tuesday.
Extended models hinting at another cold front moving through region
beginning Wednesday night. Have low chance pops Wednesday night and
Thursday.
Byrd
&&
.AVIATION: (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2015
Rain with imbedded TSRA has indeed developed over western MO and
is in the process of working its way eastward: reaching UIN and
COU by the beginning of the valid period and the STL metro sites
by 08-09z. Some lower VSBYs possible but looks to brief and
primarily on the front-end of this system. Also, due to cold
front also moving thru near the initial onset and much of the rain
on the cool side of the front, should see low-end MVFR CIGs form
and prevail for several hours into the morning. Rain and low
clouds to move out later Friday morning or midday, leaving
behind VFR conditions and gusty N-NW winds in its wake.
Specifics for KSTL: rain and thunder still on track to move in but
pushed back slightly to 08z from 07z, otherwise no changes to
previous 00z TAF: rain and possibly some thunder overnight and
Friday morning with several hours of low MVFR CIGs, becoming VFR
and dry by afternoon with gusty NW winds. Winds to diminish with
clearing by Friday evening.
TES
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1124 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
JUST CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR
HAYES...FRONTIER...CUSTER AND LINCOLN COUNTIES. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WITH A FAIRLY STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER NOTED ACROSS SWRN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA. SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NERN CWA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HRS AND WILL BE UPDATING
THE FORECAST WHEN THIS ACTIVITY CLEARS THE AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERN GOING
IN THE NEAR TERM...WITH THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. LARGE SCALE FORCING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH NORTHERN PLAINS IMPULSE HAS ALREADY SPARKED OFF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPMENT
HAVE BEEN NOTICED ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
CHARACTERIZED AS WEAKLY UNSTABLE. A SECOND AREA OF DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE ALONG A MID-LEVEL FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUSTER
COUNTY WEST INTO THE SANDHILLS AND THE THIRD IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA /EAST OF MCK/. THIS DEVELOPMENT IS FOCUSING ALONG A DRY
LINE.
WILL NEED TO MONITOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AS THEY LIE IN A
FAVORABLE REGION FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. MESOANALYSIS FROM
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES REVEALS AMPLE INSTABILITY...WITH
SBCAPES ESTIMATED AT 3500 J/KG WITH FAVORABLE INCREASING/VEERING
WINDS ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF FRONTIER COUNTY. THE SPC SIGNIFICANT HAIL
PARAMETER INDICATES A BULLSEYE OF 3 ALONG THE LINCOLN/FRONTIER
COUNTY LINE AND A 2 OVER MUCH OF OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES. THE
SUPERCELL COMPOSITE GENERALLY FAVORS THE SAME AREA. LARGE HAIL IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WHERE STORMS FORM ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES.
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE IS PICKED UP ON THE SB CONVECTION ACROSS OUR
FAR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WELL IN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT LARGELY IGNORED
THE MID-LEVEL FRONT /ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE SANDHILLS EAST
THROUGH CUSTER COUNTY/ UNTIL THE MOST RECENT RUN. THE MODEL HAS
BEEN STEADY THOUGH SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL SEVERE ACTIVITY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHORTLY AFTER 22Z. FOR THE NORTHERN
SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...THE FORCING WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH THE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO BE OVER BY MID-EVENING.
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE FOR A DRY AND COOL DAY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO WARM INTO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN AMPLIFIED NWRLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH HIGHS WARMING TO THE LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE WEST WHILE THE EAST REMAINS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
ON SUNDAY...A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS CANADA
WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NRN CONUS. THIS WILL BRING A
THERMAL RIDGE EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS AS H85 TEMPS IN WRN NEBR
REACH 25 TO 30C. HIGHS WERE NUDGED UPWARD TO NEAR 90 WEST.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY ALOFT MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NWRN CONUS. THIS WILL ACT TO EXPAND
THE THERMAL RIDGE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS AGAIN
NUDGED UPWARD TO THE UPPER 8OS TO AROUND 90 MOST AREAS THESE HIGHS
WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT TO BRING A SLIGHT CHC FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXTENDED PROCEDURE KEEPS WEDNESDAY DRY EXCEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS. FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY
SHOW BETTER SUPPORT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
FRONT....HIGHS COOL BACK SOME TO THE UPPER 70S NORTH AND LOWER 80S
NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 20000 FT
AGL OVERNIGHT WITH A THREAT FOR PATCHY FOG FROM 10Z TO 14Z FRIDAY
MORNING. VISBYS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 4SM. ON FRIDAY...MID CLOUDS
WILL THICKEN BY AFTERNOON WITH CIGS AROUND 10000 FT AGL EXPECTED.
FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS AROUND
10000 FT AGL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLB
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SLIDING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO CREATE GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY BELOW CANYONS IN THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AREAS ON THE EAST SIDE OF ALBUQUERQUE MAY GUST UP
TO 35 MPH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH TERRAIN. A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FOR WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. DRIER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE
NEXT WEEK BEFORE A POTENTIAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE BY NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
THE POST-FRONTAL INVERSION OVER EASTERN NM IS HOLDING STRONG AND
CAPPING CHANCES AT RELEASING WHAT LITTLE SURFACE INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO EVIDENCED BY SCATTERED WAVE
CLOUDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. FORCING ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT AND STRONG HEATING OVER CHAVES COUNTY IS PROVIDING
INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLD ACTIVITY. A FEW MEAGER SHOWERS ARE
ATTEMPTING TO FIRE UP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN WITH LITTLE
SUCCESS.
THE LATEST HRRR/RUC AND LOCAL WRF AGREE WITH THE SPC SSEO THAT THE
VAST MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. THE 12Z GFS
WAS STILL VERY WET FOR THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT REMAINDER OF
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE IS ON THE DRY SIDE. THE 18Z NAM STILL SHOWS
LOW CLOUDS REDEVELOPING OVER THE EAST WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN
OVERNIGHT. OVERALL LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE OTHER STORY HAS BEEN GAP WINDS IN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...WHICH ARE STILL PROGGED TO INCREASE DURING THE
EVENING. THE 19Z HRRR HAS DELAYED THE PEAK WINDS FOR THE ABQ EAST
SIDE UNTIL BTWN 8PM AND 1AM...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST
MET/MAV/ECS MOS GUIDANCE.
THIS WEEKEND LOOKS GENERALLY TRANQUIL AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ISOLD
STORMS RECYCLING UNDER THE H5 RIDGE CRESTING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
BASIN. THE BEST STORM CHANCES WILL FOCUS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
CATRON COUNTY AS INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW ARRIVES OVER THE
AREA. TEMPS WILL REBOUND SEVERAL DEGREES SATURDAY OVER THE EAST THEN
BECOME HOT AGAIN BY SUNDAY WITH BETTER KATABATIC FLOW.
MODELS ARE STILL STRUGGLING WITH MOISTURE DELIVERY MONDAY/TUESDAY AS
SEVERAL COMPLEX UPPER FEATURES SHEAR EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
LARGE SCALE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. IT APPEARS THAT THE
WESTERN THIRD WILL STILL FAVOR ISOLATED STORMS...HOWEVER TRENDS ARE
EVEN DRIER. LEE TROUGHING INCREASING OVER THE EAST WILL ALLOW FOR
WINDS TO TREND UP WITH HOT TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED TRENDS TOWARD A WETTER PATTERN ARE ADVERTISED NOW BY BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BEYOND FRIDAY. THERE ARE SOME INTERESTING FEATURES
TO ANALYZE AS AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
WITH FAST WSW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE 700-500MB
LEVEL MOISTURE PATTERN HAS INDICATIONS OF A TAP TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC. THIS COULD BE AN INITIAL SIGN OF THE LONG ANTICIPATED
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET MORE COMMON WITH EL NINO IN THE SW CONUS.
GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVED EARLIER THAN SCHEDULED TODAY
BRINGING STABLER AIR OVER THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT
DID BRING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL RECYCLE
ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN BEGINS TO MIGRATE
IN THIS DIRECTION. MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE SW
MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES AND VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY TREND UPWARD
WHILE HUMIDITIES TREND DOWNWARD.
SUNDAY THE UPPER HIGH WILL WEAKEN INTO A RIDGE OF HIGHER PRESSURE
WITH AN AXIS ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG NEW MEXICOS RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS WILL FUNNEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHERE AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITIES AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN TEMPERATURES. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WHILE HUMIDITIES FALL. HIGH
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF I-
40.
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FUNNEL OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT CENTRAL
AREAS...AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE W COAST.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTERACTING
WITH THIS MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING THE FLOW ALOFT FOR AN UPTICK IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON THESE DAYS. THE MONSOON PLUME
MAY WEAKEN SOME WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IF SOME DRIER AIR CAN GET
ENTRAINED IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY AND TUESDAYS SHORTWAVES AS DEPICTED
BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. ALSO ON MONDAY...A LEE TROUGH SHOULD TRIGGER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.
44
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON THE PCPN COVERAGE PROGNOSIS
FOR TODAY...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVED
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AZ BORDER THIS
AFTN. THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONT IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
STABLE...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCT TO
ISOLD TS/SHRA ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF MTS. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THESE AREAS INTO
TONIGHT...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE WDSPR IFR AND MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SOME OF THESE
SHOULD EVEN WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE KSAF AREA. ONE TRUSTED MODEL
SUGGESTS MVFR CONDITIONS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE TOO...BUT IT IS VERY
UNCOMMON FOR KABQ AND KAEG TO DROP BELOW VFR IN THIS PARTICULAR
SCENARIO. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF MOST PLACES BY MID TO LATE
MORNING ON SATURDAY AS A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SFC WINDS
OUT OF THE W AND SW.
44
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 53 89 51 89 / 0 5 0 0
DULCE........................... 41 81 38 82 / 5 5 5 5
CUBA............................ 48 78 46 79 / 10 5 5 5
GALLUP.......................... 44 88 44 85 / 0 10 5 10
EL MORRO........................ 43 80 43 78 / 10 10 10 30
GRANTS.......................... 46 84 43 83 / 10 10 5 20
QUEMADO......................... 53 81 53 78 / 5 30 20 30
GLENWOOD........................ 53 81 53 81 / 10 30 20 30
CHAMA........................... 44 74 44 75 / 10 10 5 5
LOS ALAMOS...................... 56 79 57 81 / 20 20 10 5
PECOS........................... 52 76 53 79 / 30 20 10 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 52 76 49 78 / 20 10 5 5
RED RIVER....................... 43 71 39 71 / 30 20 10 5
ANGEL FIRE...................... 51 66 49 68 / 30 20 10 5
TAOS............................ 47 80 42 82 / 10 5 5 5
MORA............................ 52 74 48 76 / 30 20 10 5
ESPANOLA........................ 50 85 49 87 / 5 5 0 5
SANTA FE........................ 56 78 56 80 / 20 10 5 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 55 85 52 86 / 10 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 60 86 60 87 / 10 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 63 88 62 89 / 5 10 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 59 90 59 91 / 5 5 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 60 90 60 91 / 5 5 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 57 90 54 91 / 5 10 5 5
RIO RANCHO...................... 59 90 59 90 / 5 5 0 5
SOCORRO......................... 60 89 59 90 / 10 30 20 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 53 82 54 83 / 20 10 10 5
TIJERAS......................... 55 84 56 85 / 20 10 5 5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 48 84 47 86 / 20 10 10 5
CLINES CORNERS.................. 52 79 54 82 / 30 20 10 5
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 54 80 55 82 / 30 20 10 10
CARRIZOZO....................... 58 82 58 85 / 20 20 10 20
RUIDOSO......................... 52 75 56 77 / 40 30 20 30
CAPULIN......................... 53 77 51 82 / 20 10 5 10
RATON........................... 50 84 49 88 / 20 10 5 5
SPRINGER........................ 52 83 50 87 / 20 10 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 51 81 47 84 / 30 10 10 5
CLAYTON......................... 57 82 59 89 / 30 10 5 10
ROY............................. 56 80 53 86 / 20 10 5 0
CONCHAS......................... 62 88 60 93 / 20 10 5 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 60 87 59 91 / 30 10 5 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 86 61 94 / 20 10 5 0
CLOVIS.......................... 59 81 60 91 / 20 20 10 0
PORTALES........................ 62 82 63 90 / 20 20 10 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 62 83 61 91 / 20 20 10 0
ROSWELL......................... 62 88 61 95 / 20 20 10 0
PICACHO......................... 57 84 58 88 / 30 20 10 5
ELK............................. 55 75 58 79 / 30 30 20 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DOWNWARD ON THE PCPN COVERAGE PROGNOSIS FOR
TODAY...PROBABLY BECAUSE THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVED EARLIER
THAN EXPECTED. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE AZ BORDER THIS AFTN. THE
ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THE FRONT IS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE STABLE...BUT
THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SCT TO ISOLD TS/SHRA
ALONG AND E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF MTS. SOME PRECIP MAY LINGER IN THESE AREAS INTO TONIGHT...BUT
THE BIGGER IMPACT WILL BE WDSPR IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS E OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SOME OF THESE SHOULD EVEN WORK
THEIR WAY INTO THE KSAF AREA. ONE TRUSTED MODEL SUGGESTS MVFR
CONDITIONS AROUND ALBUQUERQUE TOO...BUT IT IS VERY UNCOMMON FOR
KABQ AND KAEG TO DROP BELOW VFR IN THIS PARTICULAR SCENARIO. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF MOST PLACES BY MID TO LATE MORNING ON
SATURDAY AS A DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH SHIFTS SFC WINDS OUT OF THE W
AND SW.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1149 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR/NAM12/WRF CONTINUE TO TREND MORE STABLE TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH QPF DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. MADE CHANGES TO ADJUST
POPS LOWER ALL AREAS THRU TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER MORE CHANGES WITH
LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1028 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.UPDATE...
HIGHLY LOCALIZED GAP WIND BELOW TIJERAS CANYON ON THE ABQ EAST
SIDE IS PRODUCING EAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM EARLIER
GUIDANCE THRU REST OF TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE EFFECT
VERY WELL WITH LOCAL OBS PLOT VERIFYING THE MESOSCALE IMPACTS ON
THE WIND...WITH A MESO HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ABQ AND A
MESOLOW SOUTH OF THE SUNPORT. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CITY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
INTO THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A GOOD SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE EVENING. AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR A SPRINGER TO NARA VISA LINE AS OF THIS
WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF MARCHING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY ABOUT SUNRISE AND THEN
WWD INTO THE RGV AND POINTS WEST DURING THE DAY. GFS AND NAM BOTH
TAKE THE FRONT TO THE DIVIDE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND TO THE AZ LINE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM PROG ABOUT A 12MB DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE STATE SO EAST WINDS INTO THE MID RGV AND ABQ METRO
LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AROUND SUNSET. GFS STILL
MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NAM WITH PRECIP TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO NOT ONLY GENERATE CONVERGENCE ZONES BUT
EXTRA BUOYANCY AS WELL AND THUS FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER MOST MTN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. DRY
AIR OVER THE NW QUARTER...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY.
GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE SRN PORTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE LINDA TO GENERATE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER
THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH JET STREAM AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGHS
PASSING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ASSOCIATED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE JET AND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
BEGINS TO REINTRODUCE A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRANSITIONING FROM TROPICAL
(WARM CORE) TO EXTRA- TROPICAL (COLD CORE)...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BEYOND DAY 5 REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTREND IN HUMIDITY. BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY LATE DAY.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN HAINES VALUES OF 5 TODAY. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS THANKS TO MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT.
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE UPPER/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY AND
ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO TRANSPORT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HUMIDITY
UPTREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AND A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR/BELOW NORMAL WEST AND
ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND EAST.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1149 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR/NAM12/WRF CONTINUE TO TREND MORE STABLE TODAY/TONIGHT
WITH QPF DEVELOPMENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. MADE CHANGES TO ADJUST
POPS LOWER ALL AREAS THRU TONIGHT. WILL CONSIDER MORE CHANGES WITH
LATE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1028 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.UPDATE...
HIGHLY LOCALIZED GAP WIND BELOW TIJERAS CANYON ON THE ABQ EAST
SIDE IS PRODUCING EAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM EARLIER
GUIDANCE THRU REST OF TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE EFFECT
VERY WELL WITH LOCAL OBS PLOT VERIFYING THE MESOSCALE IMPACTS ON
THE WIND...WITH A MESO HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ABQ AND A
MESOLOW SOUTH OF THE SUNPORT. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CITY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
INTO THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...541 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH
A FEW EXCEPTIONS. A MVFR STRATUS DECK IS FILLING-IN BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WILL IMPACT
KLVS AND KTCC THIS MORNING. KLVS AND KTCC BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO DETERIORATE DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KSAF...KLVS AND KROW. MODERATE EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KABQ LATER TODAY WHEN THE BACKDOOR
FRONT MAKES A PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGHEST
FORECAST GUSTS AT KABQ CURRENTLY 32KTS...BUT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
TO HIGH AWW CRITERIA (+35KTS) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A GOOD SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE EVENING. AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR A SPRINGER TO NARA VISA LINE AS OF THIS
WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF MARCHING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY ABOUT SUNRISE AND THEN
WWD INTO THE RGV AND POINTS WEST DURING THE DAY. GFS AND NAM BOTH
TAKE THE FRONT TO THE DIVIDE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND TO THE AZ LINE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM PROG ABOUT A 12MB DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE STATE SO EAST WINDS INTO THE MID RGV AND ABQ METRO
LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AROUND SUNSET. GFS STILL
MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NAM WITH PRECIP TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO NOT ONLY GENERATE CONVERGENCE ZONES BUT
EXTRA BUOYANCY AS WELL AND THUS FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER MOST MTN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. DRY
AIR OVER THE NW QUARTER...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY.
GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE SRN PORTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE LINDA TO GENERATE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER
THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH JET STREAM AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGHS
PASSING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ASSOCIATED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE JET AND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
BEGINS TO REINTRODUCE A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRANSITIONING FROM TROPICAL
(WARM CORE) TO EXTRA- TROPICAL (COLD CORE)...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BEYOND DAY 5 REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTREND IN HUMIDITY. BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY LATE DAY.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN HAINES VALUES OF 5 TODAY. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS THANKS TO MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT.
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE UPPER/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY AND
ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO TRANSPORT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HUMIDITY
UPTREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AND A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR/BELOW NORMAL WEST AND
ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND EAST.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1028 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
HIGHLY LOCALIZED GAP WIND BELOW TIJERAS CANYON ON THE ABQ EAST
SIDE IS PRODUCING EAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES THIS
MORNING. UPDATED WIND GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE FROM EARLIER
GUIDANCE THRU REST OF TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THE EFFECT
VERY WELL WITH LOCAL OBS PLOT VERIFYING THE MESOSCALE IMPACTS ON
THE WIND...WITH A MESO HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF ABQ AND A
MESOLOW SOUTH OF THE SUNPORT. WINDS ARE LIGHT OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE CITY. EXPECT STRENGTHENING OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY THIS EVENING AS THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES
INTO THE REGION.
GUYER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...541 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH
A FEW EXCEPTIONS. A MVFR STRATUS DECK IS FILLING-IN BEHIND A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WILL IMPACT
KLVS AND KTCC THIS MORNING. KLVS AND KTCC BOTH HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO DETERIORATE DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN/NEAR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN THE
VICINITY OF KSAF...KLVS AND KROW. MODERATE EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KABQ LATER TODAY WHEN THE BACKDOOR
FRONT MAKES A PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. HIGHEST
FORECAST GUSTS AT KABQ CURRENTLY 32KTS...BUT SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS
TO HIGH AWW CRITERIA (+35KTS) LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MDT FRI SEP 11 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH RAPIDLY INTO EASTERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A GOOD SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY TO AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FAVOR MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO DURING THE EVENING. AS A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT NEAR A SPRINGER TO NARA VISA LINE AS OF THIS
WRITING. MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF MARCHING THE FRONT SOUTHWEST TO
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY ABOUT SUNRISE AND THEN
WWD INTO THE RGV AND POINTS WEST DURING THE DAY. GFS AND NAM BOTH
TAKE THE FRONT TO THE DIVIDE BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND TO THE AZ LINE
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. GFS AND NAM PROG ABOUT A 12MB DIFFERENCE
ACROSS THE STATE SO EAST WINDS INTO THE MID RGV AND ABQ METRO
LIKELY TO PEAK IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE AROUND SUNSET. GFS STILL
MUCH MORE BULLISH THAN THE NAM WITH PRECIP TODAY AND TONIGHT. DRY
NW FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO NOT ONLY GENERATE CONVERGENCE ZONES BUT
EXTRA BUOYANCY AS WELL AND THUS FAVORED THE WETTER GFS SOLUTION.
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
OVER MOST MTN RANGES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY EVENING. DRY
AIR OVER THE NW QUARTER...HOWEVER...WILL KEEP THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA DRY.
GFS AND ECMWF TRENDING SLIGHTLY FASTER WITH THE EWD PROGRESSION
OF THE SRN PORTION OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST OFF THE
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. MODELS AGREE THAT RESIDUAL MOISTURE
FROM PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL
COMBINE WITH REMNANT MOISTURE FROM WHAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL
STORM/HURRICANE LINDA TO GENERATE GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WRN NM SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND OVER
THE NWRN HALF OF THE STATE MONDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.
GFS IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH JET STREAM AND SHORT- WAVE TROUGHS
PASSING EWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND THE ASSOCIATED
DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER NM. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND IS
FARTHER TO THE NORTH WITH THE JET AND THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH AND
BEGINS TO REINTRODUCE A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. GIVEN ALL THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE TROPICAL
PACIFIC OCEAN AND SEVERAL SYSTEMS TRANSITIONING FROM TROPICAL
(WARM CORE) TO EXTRA- TROPICAL (COLD CORE)...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE
BEYOND DAY 5 REMAINS LOW.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY RESULTING IN COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS BEHIND THE
FRONT...ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPTREND IN HUMIDITY. BEST CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS...BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS BY LATE DAY.
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS ACROSS FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL
RESULT IN HAINES VALUES OF 5 TODAY. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS
FORECAST OVERNIGHT MOST AREAS THANKS TO MOISTURE BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT.
THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH THE UPPER/MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMING WESTERLY AND
ALLOWING MOISTURE FROM OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO TRANSPORT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN A HUMIDITY
UPTREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN INCREASING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW TO PREVAIL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING WINDS AND A GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR/BELOW NORMAL WEST AND
ABOVE NORMAL CENTRAL AND EAST.
11
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
736 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING ONE MORE DRY DAY BEFORE
EXITING INTO NEW ENGLAND. THEN A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
DEVELOPING AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO
SUNDAY WITH COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 700 AM...SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NARROW
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BETWEEN A DEPARTING
COASTAL LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. THE
MORNING WILL START OFF COOL...WITH SOME FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER VALLEYS AND EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGIONS. THIS SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY GIVE-WAY TO AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
06Z RUNS AND THE HRRR HAVE TRENDED A BIT SLOWER...WITH THE
FORECAST UPDATE REFLECTING THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING WHICH KEEPS
OUR CWA DRY THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE 500 MB TROUGH
GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT...WITH BUFKIT SHOWING SIGNIFICANT LIFT IN THE
MID-LEVELS SUGGESTING LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC FORCING WITH THE TROUGH.
THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA TONIGHT. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS SOME UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WHICH DOES
SEEM REASONABLE GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL NOT IMPACT
POPS...BUT THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN QPFS OF GREATER THAN A HALF
INCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE AREAS.
OTHERWISE...GRADUALLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE REGION WITH
THE TROUGH AND PRECIPITATION. WILL FAVOR MODEL RAW TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE OVER BIAS CORRECTED SINCE THERE IS NOT LIKELY TO BE MUCH
RADIATIONAL COOLING OUTSIDE OF THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN UNIFORM LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL BE A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A REGION OF BAROCLINICITY AND BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. THIS RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN EXPECTED TO
BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TO CENTRAL NEW YORK...STORM TOTALS
RANGING FROM A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ACROSS WESTERN NY AND MORE
THAN AN INCH OVER THE FINGER LAKES TO CENTRAL NY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL ON SATURDAY AS NORTHERLY WINDS HOLD THE MAX
TEMPS TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND TUG HILL PLATEAU...WITH LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS
THE LAKE PLAINS.
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT...THE STEADIER RAIN WILL GIVE WAY TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AS THE FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVES EAST AND THE
INFLUENCE OF COOLER AIR ALOFT TAKES OVER.
ON SUNDAY...THE CLOSED 500MB5 LOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE STRONGER DYNAMICS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NORTH AND EAST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WE WILL STILL EXPERIENCE SOME
SHOWERS UNDER THE UNSTABLE COLD CORE OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OF THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...SIMILAR TO
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE A RETURN TO FAIR DRY WEATHER WITH DAY TO
DAY WARMING SENDING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL.
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
INCLEMENT WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE EXITING ACROSS THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND QUEBEC ON MONDAY...WHILE SIGNIFICANT RIDGING WILL START
TO BUILD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN
TO AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY WITH THE MERCURY RETURNING
TO THE 70S.
THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEING CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THIS WILL GUARANTEE FAIR DRY WEATHER WITH THE
MERCURY CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 80S FOR MANY AREAS BY MID WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT DAYBREAK THERE IS PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION IMPACTING THE
ART/JHW TERMINALS. THIS SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AT ART AND BY
MID-MORNING AT JHW. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY
WEATHER AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND GRADUALLY BRING RAIN INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. FLIGHT CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER FROM
WEST TO EAST...GENERALLY TO MVFR AS THE RAIN MOVES IN. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE JHW WHERE THE UPSLOPE NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE LOW MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY CAUSE A LOWER IFR CLOUD DECK.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...AREAS OF MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF RAIN.
SUNDAY...AREAS OF MVFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
BRING A BRIEF UPTICK IN WINDS THIS WEEKEND BUT THIS NORTHERLY FLOW
STILL LOOKS TO BE A BIT SHY OF SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/WCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
706 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ALSO DECREASING. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWS A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWERS OVER ILLINOIS TOO. THE HRRR HAS
PICKED UP ON THESE TRENDS AND IS SLOWER IN MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN OHIO. WE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS MORNING AND
PROGRESS TO NORTHEAST OHIO BY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL. HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION. LATE MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR TOL WHILE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE RAINFREE MOST
OF THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
70S. A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH CAPE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. WILL INITIALLY MENTION
SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN ADD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT SHOWERY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AMPLIFIES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH RATHER WARM LAKE ERIE NEAR
24C WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKE. CONSEQUENTLY, INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF
KCLE. CAPE OVER LAKE ERIE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500-1000 J/KG WHICH
COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS. THE DOWNSCALED
NAM DEPICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY AND INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST
OF KCLE.
HAVE REDUCED POP BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ON MONDAY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RIDGING AND DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE WARMING STABILIZING FLOW.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER COOL AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE
CONSTANT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER, READINGS MAY ON REACH 60 IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GEAUGA COUNTY AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR TUE THRU THU STILL LOOKS IN LINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...DRY WX AND WARMING TEMPS. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE WITH
A WEAK S/W SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHC POPS WEST TO EAST FOR THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ANY PATCHY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 13Z. RAIN AND EVENTUAL MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM ABOUT 16Z AT TOL AND FDY TO AROUND 21Z FOR
YNG AND ERI. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END IN THE WEST AROUND 00Z AND
CIGS MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE BEFORE LOWERING AGAIN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE MAINLY MVFR CONTINUE THE REST
OF THE NIGHT WITH SCT SHRA.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR NE
OH AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME ON SAT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO SEE WAVES FALL BELOW 4 FEET SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUN. IF THE HIGH MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT
STAYS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BACK TO SW SUN NIGHT INTO
MON BUT COULD STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SCA WAVES TO
HANG ON FOR THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTH AND LIGHTEN MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS OVER CENTRAL PA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
635 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN THE
BAROCLINIC LEAF OVER ILLINOIS AND MISSOURI WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY ALSO DECREASING. THE REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC ALSO SHOWS A
WEAKENING TREND IN THE SHOWERS OVER ILLINOIS TOO. THE HRRR HAS
PICKED UP ON THESE TRENDS AND IS SLOWER IN MOVING THE
PRECIPITATION INTO NORTHERN OHIO. WE WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AREA TODAY TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS MORNING AND
PROGRESS TO NORTHEAST OHIO BY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL. HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION. LATE MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR TOL WHILE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE RAINFREE MOST
OF THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
70S. A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH CAPE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. WILL INITIALLY MENTION
SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN ADD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT SHOWERY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AMPLIFIES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH RATHER WARM LAKE ERIE NEAR
24C WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKE. CONSEQUENTLY, INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF
KCLE. CAPE OVER LAKE ERIE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500-1000 J/KG WHICH
COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS. THE DOWNSCALED
NAM DEPICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY AND INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST
OF KCLE.
HAVE REDUCED POP BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ON MONDAY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RIDGING AND DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE WARMING STABILIZING FLOW.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER COOL AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE
CONSTANT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER, READINGS MAY ON REACH 60 IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GEAUGA COUNTY AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR TUE THRU THU STILL LOOKS IN LINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...DRY WX AND WARMING TEMPS. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE WITH
A WEAK S/W SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHC POPS WEST TO EAST FOR THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND CAK AND YNG TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RAIN AND EVENTUAL MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM 15Z AROUND TOL
AND FDY TO 19 TO 21Z FOR YNG AND ERI. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END IN
THE WEST AROUND 00Z AND CIGS MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE BEFORE LOWERING
AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR NE
OH AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME ON SAT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO SEE WAVES FALL BELOW 4 FEET SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUN. IF THE HIGH MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT
STAYS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BACK TO SW SUN NIGHT INTO
MON BUT COULD STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SCA WAVES TO
HANG ON FOR THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTH AND LIGHTEN MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS OVER CENTRAL PA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
421 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY. A STRONG UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL DROP ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TO
ILLINOIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST OHIO LATE THIS MORNING AND
PROGRESS TO NORTHEAST OHIO BY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE POST FRONTAL. HAVE USED THE HRRR FOR TIMING OF
THE PRECIPITATION. LATE MORNING SHOWERS WILL LIMIT MAX
TEMPERATURES NEAR TOL WHILE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL BE RAINFREE MOST
OF THE DAY WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID
70S. A MODEST AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED WITH CAPE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG. WILL INITIALLY MENTION
SHOWERS TODAY AND THEN ADD THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOMEWHAT SHOWERY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND THEN
GRADUALLY IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATION FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER AS A POTENT
SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES AMPLIFIES THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
REGION SATURDAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE COLD AIR ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH RATHER WARM LAKE ERIE NEAR
24C WILL CREATE AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER AND DOWNWIND OF
THE LAKE. CONSEQUENTLY, INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS SOME
THUNDER ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT EAST OF
KCLE. CAPE OVER LAKE ERIE MAY BE AS HIGH AS 500-1000 J/KG WHICH
COULD PRODUCE MODERATE TO BRIEFLY HEAVY SHOWERS. THE DOWNSCALED
NAM DEPICTS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKE
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY ON SATURDAY AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE.
AS THE UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO LIFT AWAY AND INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE DECREASE ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, SHOWERS WILL BECOME
MORE SCATTERED AND CONFINED MAINLY TO THE SNOWBELT COUNTIES EAST
OF KCLE.
HAVE REDUCED POP BELOW MENTIONABLE VALUES ON MONDAY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED RIDGING AND DRY LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE REGION
ALONG WITH THE WARMING STABILIZING FLOW.
THE WEEKEND WILL BE RATHER COOL AND ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF PRECIPITATION IS MORE
CONSTANT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER, READINGS MAY ON REACH 60 IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF GEAUGA COUNTY AND INLAND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.
MODERATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR TUE THRU THU STILL LOOKS IN LINE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE...DRY WX AND WARMING TEMPS. THE MODELS SHOW MOISTURE WITH
A WEAK S/W SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA THU INTO THU NIGHT SO WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CHC POPS WEST TO EAST FOR THEN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND CAK AND YNG TOWARD DAYBREAK...OTHERWISE VFR
WILL PREVAIL INTO THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. RAIN AND EVENTUAL MVFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY DEVELOP WEST TO EAST FROM 15Z AROUND TOL
AND FDY TO 19 TO 21Z FOR YNG AND ERI. MOST OF THE RAIN SHOULD END IN
THE WEST AROUND 00Z AND CIGS MAY IMPROVE FOR A WHILE BEFORE LOWERING
AGAIN LATER IN THE NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR NE
OH AND NW PA.
&&
.MARINE...
NORTH WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH SCA CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY THE END OF THE DAY.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE SOME ON SAT BUT MAY NOT BE ENOUGH
TO SEE WAVES FALL BELOW 4 FEET SO THE SCA MAY NEED TO CONTINUE
INTO SUN. IF THE HIGH MOVING UP THE OH VALLEY SUN AND SUN NIGHT
STAYS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH WINDS WILL BACK TO SW SUN NIGHT INTO
MON BUT COULD STAY JUST STRONG ENOUGH FOR MARGINAL SCA WAVES TO
HANG ON FOR THE EAST PART OF THE LAKE...BUT FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUITY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
WINDS CONTINUE TO BACK TO SOUTH AND LIGHTEN MON NIGHT AND TUE AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS OVER CENTRAL PA.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAPLANTE
NEAR TERM...LAPLANTE
SHORT TERM...LAPLANTE
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...ADAMS
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1201 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 6Z TAFs, a cold front will traverse the area overnight
tonight, bringing thunderstorms to all sites. MVFR conditions
will likely accompany storm cells as they move across a TAF site.
Winds will increase out of the north after frontal passage and
precipitation chances will slowly diminish. MVFR ceilings will
likely persist into the mid morning at Northeast Oklahoma and
Northwest Arkansas sites.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm complex over Kansas this evening is still on track to
move into portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
around midnight as the strong cold front continues its southward
push toward the area. Although an overall weakening trend should
occur in the complex as a whole due to lower available shear this
far south, mesoanalysis is indicative of instability that could
support a limited threat of isolated damaging wind potential,
especially along and north of Interstate 44. Given the current
movement of the complex, expect a faster movement than projected
by the new NAM but slower than the recent runs of the HRRR. It`s a
good bet that most of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas
will see rain prior to sunrise.
Main changes to the forecast were to tweak the POPs some,
including raising them along and north of Interstate 40 through
12z and also to delay the spread into most of southeast Oklahoma
until after 09z. The rest of the forecast looks good to go.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
For the 0Z TAFs, a cold front will traverse the area overnight,
bringing thunderstorms to all sites. MVFR conditions will likely
accompany storm cells as they move across a TAF site. Winds will
increase out of the north after frontal passage and precipitation
chances will slowly diminish. MVFR ceilings will likely persist
into the mid morning at Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas
sites
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A cold front will move south across the area late tonight and
Friday morning accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms. The HRRR is much quicker moving convection into and
out of the area than most other models and have leaned towards
this solution. A limited severe risk will exist especially near
the Kansas and Missouri borders, and this is also the area where
the greatest storm coverage is expected.
Much cooler and drier air will move into the area for the weekend
bringing our first taste of fall. Southerly winds will return and
increase early next week resulting in a quick warmup. By the
latter half of next week, temperatures will be several degrees
above normal, and higher humidity levels will return as well. Rain
chances look like they will hold off until the very end of the
week when a frontal boundary will approach from the north.
Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
847 PM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED TO REMOVE THE MENTION OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING AND TO
ADD AREAS OF FOG TO THE COAST AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE UMPQUA
BASIN THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
THE RADAR DID PICK UP ISOLATED VIRGA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE EAST SIDE THIS EVENING. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A COOLING
TREND WILL BEGIN SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE NOTICEABLE WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL CONTAIN
RELATIVELY LITTLE MOISTURE BUT THERE IS A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN AT
THE COAST AND ALSO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THE EAST SIDE AND IN SOUTHWEST SISKIYOU COUNTY.
THE 18Z GFS TRENDED DRIER WITH THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS ON
TUESDAY. BUT, STILL INDICATES A STRONG, WET COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A ZONAL PATTERN IS LIKELY TO
FOLLOW WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO AROUND NORMAL AT THE END OF
THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 13/00Z TAF CYCLE...MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FROM CAPE BLANCO TO GOLD
BEACH. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE WATERS. STRATUS WILL SPILL INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY...BUT MAY NOT REACH KRBG.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BRING DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...AND EAST SIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS NO STRONG
TRIGGER...BUT DUE TO A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA ISOLATED STRIKES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. -MSC
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 400 PM PDT SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2015...SEAS WILL
REMAIN STEEP THROUGH THIS EVENING. NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS AND PRESSURE
OFFSHORE BUILDS. THIS WILL BRING WINDS AND SEAS TO WARNING
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS LATE TONIGHT...AND BRING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO MOST OTHER AREAS.
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL BRING CHANGING
CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AND
MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE WATERS SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BRIEFLY TURN ONSHORE...AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE
TUESDAY. A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
BRINGING RAIN AND POSSIBLE GALES AND HAZARDOUS SOUTHWEST SEAS OF 10
TO 14 FEET. -MSC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 PM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...12/12Z NAM/GFS IN.
THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE SOUTH
COAST SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE EXTREME
LOWER UMPQUA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE SOME
MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MEDFORD CWA...AND SOME CUMULUS
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST. SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STABILITY INDICES SHOW SOME NEGATIVE
VALUES OVER THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
EAST SIDE...BUT THEY ARE TRENDING MORE STABLE. THERE WILL BE MORE
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.0
INCHES...BUT IT IS ALL ELEVATED. BASES WILL BE WAY UP IN THE 10-14
KFT MSL RANGE. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT CIN AND AT LEAST TWO
STABLE LAYERS IN THE SOUNDING PROFILES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
DEEMPHASIZE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANY THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE
WEST SIDE AND NEAR THE FRIDAY HIGHS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BY SUNDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES...CURVING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THAT`S WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE ACTION WILL BE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL
LOWER A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE STABLE LAYERS ARE STILL IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT. CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED...ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNDAY HIGHS
INLAND AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SATURDAY HIGHS.
A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE. INLAND MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD BUT THERE WON`T BE A LOT OF
IT IN ANY ONE LOCATION. INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST
AND SISKIYOUS NORTH...AND SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE. STABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY GET GOING IT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NO LONGER LOOK DRY...IT
WILL BE SHOWERY. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL...BOTTOMING OUT WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A VERY WET FRONT ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN POST- FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE. IT WILL
ALSO BE QUITE WINDY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WON`T BE MUCH OF A COLD FRONT IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES THOUGH...IN FACT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON
THURSDAY DESPITE THIS EVENT.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL TRIGGER A LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW EVENT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ON
FRIDAY...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS...AND THEY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2015...
CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES IN
THE POSITIVE TERRITORY. THE LATEST HRRR MAX REFLECTIVITY SHOWS MOST
OF THE RETURNS SOUTH OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN LIMITED ACTIVITY SHOWING UP IN MODOC AND LAKE COUNTY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THOROUGH ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
BL CAPE AND PLENTY OF CIN INTO THIS EVENING AND LIFTED INDICES
HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO -1C. ALSO HAVE YET TO SEE ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CAL.
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR LINGERING INTO SUNDAY, WIDESPREAD HAINES 5
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX, AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS THERE ON SUNDAY.
THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
IN FACT THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW MAY IN FACT MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CAL FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO MODOC COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES
624 AND 625. THUS, HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTH WITH THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. OF NOTE THE SREF SHOWS A 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND THIS
LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH SPC`S COVERAGE AREA FOR PROBABILITY OF
ONE STRIKE. OF NOTE THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH
CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -1C AT 18Z, THEN MORE
STABLE AT 0Z WITH LI`S NEAR 0C WITH NO CAPE. GIVEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE AND NOT ISSUE ANY
WATCHES.
AS WE GO INTO MONDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
WETTING RAINFALL IN THE 0.10-0.25" RANGE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT THE SCOTT VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WITH MODELS SHOWING 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN AND RH`S
UP SUBSTANTIALLY, SO, WHILE A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE,
EXPECT THAT, OVERALL, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY.
WE`LL CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER TUESDAY AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING BUILDS IN. THEN A POTENT
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN FROM THE
CASCADES WEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL FROM EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO MODOC COUNTY, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. NOTE WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WEST OF THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, IT MAY ONLY BE A SEASON SLOWING EVENT BECAUSE OF
THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO
11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
DW/JRS/MSC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEDFORD OR
535 PM PDT SAT SEP 12 2015
UPDATED AVIATION AND MARINE
.DISCUSSION...12/12Z NAM/GFS IN.
THERE ARE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE NORTH COAST...THE SOUTH
COAST SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH...THE COQUILLE VALLEY...AND THE EXTREME
LOWER UMPQUA THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN THAT...THERE ARE SOME
MID-LEVEL AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE MEDFORD CWA...AND SOME CUMULUS
HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP.
THE FLOW ALOFT IS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A LOW APPROACHES
THE COAST. SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STABILITY INDICES SHOW SOME NEGATIVE
VALUES OVER THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE
EAST SIDE...BUT THEY ARE TRENDING MORE STABLE. THERE WILL BE MORE
MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND 1.0
INCHES...BUT IT IS ALL ELEVATED. BASES WILL BE WAY UP IN THE 10-14
KFT MSL RANGE. THERE IS ALSO SIGNIFICANT CIN AND AT LEAST TWO
STABLE LAYERS IN THE SOUNDING PROFILES. GIVEN ALL THIS...WILL
DEEMPHASIZE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TODAY. ANY THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
LIKELY BE DRY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2 TO 5 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE
WEST SIDE AND NEAR THE FRIDAY HIGHS OVER THE EAST SIDE AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
BY SUNDAY THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA...AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION LOOK TO BE OVER
SISKIYOU AND MODOC COUNTIES...CURVING UP INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN
KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. THAT`S WHERE BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
LIFTED INDICES INDICATE THE ACTION WILL BE. THE MOIST LAYER WILL
LOWER A BIT...BUT OVERALL THE STABLE LAYERS ARE STILL IN THE
SOUNDINGS AND PWATS ACTUALLY LOWER A BIT. CONVECTION STILL LOOKS
TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED...ENOUGH TO GO WITH DRY THUNDERSTORMS
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH SUNDAY HIGHS
INLAND AROUND 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SATURDAY HIGHS.
A BIG CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR MONDAY. AN INCOMING LONG WAVE TROUGH
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ONSHORE. INLAND MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE SUNDAY HIGHS. THERE WILL ALSO BE
PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD BUT THERE WON`T BE A LOT OF
IT IN ANY ONE LOCATION. INTERMITTENT RAIN FROM THE CASCADES WEST
AND SISKIYOUS NORTH...AND SHOWERS ON THE EAST SIDE. STABILITY
REMAINS MARGINAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. IF ANY GET GOING IT WILL BE NO
MORE THAN ISOLATED COVERAGE.
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL HEAD OFF TO THE EAST TUESDAY AND ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING STRONGER
WITH THIS FEATURES. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NO LONGER LOOK DRY...IT
WILL BE SHOWERY. INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL...BOTTOMING OUT WEDNESDAY 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS.
A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE THURSDAY AND MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL PUSH A VERY WET FRONT ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN POST- FRONTAL
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY
FROM THE CASCADES WEST AND POSSIBLE OVER THE EAST SIDE. IT WILL
ALSO BE QUITE WINDY ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AND OVER THE EAST SIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT WON`T BE MUCH OF A COLD FRONT IN TERMS OF
TEMPERATURES THOUGH...IN FACT A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON
THURSDAY DESPITE THIS EVENT.
A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
AFTER THE TROUGH DEPARTS. THIS WILL TRIGGER A LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE
FLOW EVENT BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EXPECT DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ON
FRIDAY...INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
NORMS...AND THEY WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 13/00Z TAF CYCLE...MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FROM CAPE BLANCO TO GOLD
BEACH. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE WATERS. STRATUS WILL SPILL INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY...BUT MAY NOT REACH KRBG.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BRING DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...AND EAST SIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS NO STRONG
TRIGGER...BUT DUE TO A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA ISOLATED STRIKES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. -MSC
&&
.MARINE...FOR THE 13/00Z TAF CYCLE...MARINE STRATUS WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BRINGING IFR TO LIFR CIGS ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...BUT EXPECT CLEAR SKIES FROM CAPE BLANCO TO GOLD
BEACH. STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
COAST...AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE WATERS. STRATUS WILL SPILL INTO THE
UMPQUA VALLEY...BUT MAY NOT REACH KRBG.
ELSEWHERE...VFR. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY BRING DRY THUNDERSTORMS TO
THE CASCADES...SISKIYOUS...AND EAST SIDE TONIGHT. THERE IS NO STRONG
TRIGGER...BUT DUE TO A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST OVER THE CWA ISOLATED STRIKES CAN`T BE RULED OUT. -MSC
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 100 PM PDT SATURDAY 12 SEPTEMBER 2015...
CURRENT SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS VIRTUALLY NO CAPE AND LIFTED INDICES IN
THE POSITIVE TERRITORY. THE LATEST HRRR MAX REFLECTIVITY SHOWS MOST
OF THE RETURNS SOUTH OF THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, THEN LIMITED ACTIVITY SHOWING UP IN MODOC AND LAKE COUNTY
EARLY THIS EVENING. AFTER THOROUGH ANALYSIS, THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING IS MARGINAL AT BEST AND
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF NOTHING HAPPENS. MODELS SHOW LITTLE OR NO
BL CAPE AND PLENTY OF CIN INTO THIS EVENING AND LIFTED INDICES
HOVERING BETWEEN 0 TO -1C. ALSO HAVE YET TO SEE ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE WEAK UPPER LOW IN NORTHERN CAL.
WITH LOTS OF DRY AIR LINGERING INTO SUNDAY, WIDESPREAD HAINES 5
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WE`LL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE
NATIONAL CREEK COMPLEX, AS SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR HAINES 6 CONDITIONS THERE ON SUNDAY.
THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY,
IN FACT THE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW MAY IN FACT MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
ON SUNDAY AS THE NORTHERN BRANCH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN
PART OF THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH IF CORRECT WOULD KEEP THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHERN CAL FROM EASTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY INTO MODOC COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN FIRE ZONES
624 AND 625. THUS, HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND SOUTH WITH THE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. OF NOTE THE SREF SHOWS A 30 PERCENT
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS AND THIS
LINES UP PRETTY WELL WITH SPC`S COVERAGE AREA FOR PROBABILITY OF
ONE STRIKE. OF NOTE THE NAM HAS BACKED OFF ON THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WITH
CAPE VALUES AROUND 300 J/KG AND LI`S AROUND -1C AT 18Z, THEN MORE
STABLE AT 0Z WITH LI`S NEAR 0C WITH NO CAPE. GIVEN THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SCENARIOS, WE`LL CONTINUE TO HEADLINE AND NOT ISSUE ANY
WATCHES.
AS WE GO INTO MONDAY GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL
WETTING RAINFALL IN THE 0.10-0.25" RANGE IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM ABOUT THE SCOTT VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
EAST SIDE. WINDS WILL ALSO BE STRONGER WITH MODELS SHOWING 700MB
WINDS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE DOWN AND RH`S
UP SUBSTANTIALLY, SO, WHILE A FEW NEW FIRE STARTS ARE POSSIBLE,
EXPECT THAT, OVERALL, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY.
WE`LL CATCH A BREAK IN THE WEATHER TUESDAY AS ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST AND WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING BUILDS IN. THEN A POTENT
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BRING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAIN FROM THE
CASCADES WEST ON WEDNESDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER EAST OF
THE CASCADES AND NORTHERN CAL FROM EASTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY EASTWARD
INTO MODOC COUNTY, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN IS LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THURSDAY. NOTE WHILE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT WEST OF THE CASCADES
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AT LEAST RELATIVE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR, IT MAY ONLY BE A SEASON SLOWING EVENT BECAUSE OF
THE DEGREE OF DRYNESS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED FOR QUITE SOME TIME.
-PETRUCELLI
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR
PZZ350-356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ370-376.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM SUNDAY TO 11 PM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ376.
$$
JRS/MAP/MSC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 AM EDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SWEEP OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN REGION LATE THIS WEEK. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COOL AND
DRY AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE REGION
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEED TO THE GOING FCST. STCU IS
DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF MID/UPPER CLOUDS DEPARTING AND TEMPS/TDS
ARE REMINING FAIRLY STEADY STATE. ANOTHER ROUND OF UPPER CLOUDS
PUSHING IN FROM THE SW WILL HELP MAINTAIN RELATIVELY SLOW NOCTURNAL
TEMP CURVES. KEEPING AN EYE ON DENSE FG FOR A POSSIBLE DFA ACROSS
THE NC PIEDMONT/FHILLS WHERE GOOD COV PRECIP FELL LAST EVENING.
1015 PM UPDATE...ISOLATED CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CHARLOTTE
AREA INVOF A STALLED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AXIS OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CAN BE SEEN ON WV IMAGERY...MORE OR LESS LINED UP WITH THE NC
MTNS. ROUNDS OF WEAK ACTIVITY MAY FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT INSTABILITY ALMOST CERTAINLY WILL BE USED UP BY
THE TIME THE SHORTWAVE AXIS ARRIVES. MESO MODELS ARE NOT DOING
MUCH AND THE HRRR IS TRENDING WEAKER WITH ITS DEPICTION OF NEW
DEVELOPMENT OVER OUR AREA. A LINE OF CELLS OVER UPPER EAST TN IS
MOVING SWD SLOWLY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PUSH VERY FAR PAST
THE NC BORDER. ALL REMAINING POPS ARE ISOLATED AND DIMINISH BELOW
MENTIONABLE VALUES BY 200 A.M. ALREADY SEEING SOME LOWERING VSBYS
ON AREA OBS...BUT STILL THINK THE THICKEST FOG WILL BE WHERE HEAVY
RAIN FELL LATE IN THE DAY.
REMAINDER OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...AS OF 225 PM...A COLD FRONT
WAS ANALYZED WINDING FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE TN VALLEY...TO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL IN THE MTNS FOR
MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHILE NWLY LLVL FLOW HELPS SCOUR OUT CLOUD
COVER. SO PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACRS THE
AREA...ESP WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS AND IN THE MTN VALLEYS.
TEMPS WILL DROP A CATEGORY OR TWO COOLER THAN THIS MORNING/S LOWS
FOR FRIDAY MORNING.
FRIDAY...THE CWFA WILL BE IN BETWEEN SHORTWAVE TROFS AND BETWEEN
SFC FRONTS. LLVL FLOW WILL REMAIN WLY TO NWLY...LIMITING MOISTURE
AND LLVL CONVERGENCE. SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WITH PEAK HEATING FRIDAY AFTN. TEMPS WILL BE A CATEGORY
OR TWO ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM THURSDAY...LINGERING SCATTERED/ISOLATED DIURNAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WANE FRI EVENING...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE
AGAIN TOWARD DAYBREAK ACROSS THE MTNS...AS A BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SURGE
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THE MOIST BAND IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH AS IT MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MORNING...MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PART OF THE FRONT LIKELY GETTING HUNG UP A BIT
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...LIKELY NOT COMPLETELY CLEARING THE AREA UNTIL
A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING.
AS A RESULT...THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WARMTH LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY TO SUPPORT MODEST LEVELS OF
INSTABILITY. TERRAIN EFFECTS AND THE FRONT SHOULD PROVIDE FOCI FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...ESP FROM THE BLUE RIDGE EAST...PRIMARILY WARRANTING CHANCE
POPS.
WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING TROUGH/COLD FRONT...SUNDAY SHAPES UP TO BE A SPECTACULAR
EARLY TASTE OF AUTUMN...WITH MAXES EXPECTED IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS
LIKELY FALLING INTO THE 40S BY AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 225 PM THURSDAY...THE EARLY PART OF THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL BE
DOMINATED BY AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP...YET PROGRESSIVE EAST COAST LONG
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT
A CONTINUATION OF EARLY FALL-LIKE WEATHER...WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. IN FACT...
MON MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE DOWNRIGHT CHILLY ACROSS THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS...WITH TEMPS LIKELY DIPPING TO NEAR 40 ABOVE 4000 FEET OR
SO. HEIGHT RISES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WILL RESULT IN TEMPS
CREEPING BACK TOWARD CLIMO...ALTHOUGH WITH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE SLOWER
TO RECOVER...AND IT APPEARS CHANCES FOR ANY DIURNAL CONVECTION...OR
PRECIP OF ANY STRIPE WILL BE BELOW 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KCLT...MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING AND PUSHING OFF
TO THE EAST WHICH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TRAPPED IN WEAK SFC INVERSIONS
TO INCREASE WITH RAD COOLING. WENT A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC WITH THE
MORNING PERIOD DUE TO PREVIOUS PRECIP IN THE AREA AND CURRENT AREA
OB TRENDS. FOR NOW...HAVE IFR CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPING AROUND
11Z...QUICKLY TRANSITIONING TO VFR CONDS AFT 13Z. PRECIP CHANCES ARE
TOO LOW FOR A PROB30 MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL EXPECT MAINLY
UPPER CLOUDS AFT 02Z.
ELSEWHERE...TRICKY TAF SET FOR THE THE FIRST 6-8 HRS. LLVL STCU HAS
ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE UPSTATE WITH IFR CIGS AT KGMU. WENT
BELOW MODEL GUIDE FOR CIGS AND HAVE IFR CONDS AT ALL SITES AFT 09Z
OR SO...THRU 13Z. KAVL AN KHKY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP
AS FRONTAL ZONE IMPINGES ON THE NC MTNS LATE SO HAVE VCSH THESE
SITES AFT 00Z. DOWNSLOPING NW/LY TO W/LY FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVEC
CHANCES OVER THE UPSTATE TO PRECLUDE A WX MENTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A FRONT STALLS JUST EAST OF THE REGION...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRIFTS EAST THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. MTN VALLEY FOG
AND STRATUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTN. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 91% HIGH 94% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 51% HIGH 82% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND MED 78% HIGH 87% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...ARK/SBK/WIMBERLEY
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...SBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
710 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z UPDATE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK AT ALI
AND VCT...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AS WELL AT VCT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT CRP. OVER LRD ALSO ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS WITH A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING MORE NNE OVERNIGHT...AND TURNING E DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRIOR TO
THIS THOUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH 00Z. PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. HIGHS
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
WITH LOWER 90S TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO TONIGHT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY AS THE DRIER AIRMASS INVADING THE AREA TODAY REMAINS IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER DEEP MSTR WILL INCREASE AS EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. CHC POPS WILL BE CONTINUED NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
LOWER POPS WEST. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND SO POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED SEABREEZE AREAS.
MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM ACRS THE BOARD...ESPLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINS AND HV UNDERCUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 89 70 90 71 89 / 10 0 0 0 10
VICTORIA 89 64 87 65 88 / 10 0 0 0 10
LAREDO 94 72 93 71 95 / 20 0 0 0 10
ALICE 91 69 91 68 92 / 20 0 0 0 10
ROCKPORT 89 71 88 73 87 / 10 0 0 0 10
COTULLA 93 69 93 69 94 / 10 0 0 0 0
KINGSVILLE 90 69 90 70 91 / 20 0 0 0 10
NAVY CORPUS 88 75 87 74 87 / 20 0 0 0 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
LK/84...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
336 PM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO COME TO AN END THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS DUMPED 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN MAINLY SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND LINE. NORTH OF THAT
LINE AREAS HAVE GOTTEN VERY LITTLE RAINFALL AND THOSE ARE THE
AREAS THAT NEED IT. AREAS OF W HARRIS CO THAT DO NOT NEED THE RAIN
ENDED UP WITH ANYWHERE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN CAUSING
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAINLY ON THE SOUTH MAYDE CREEK.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW PRECIPITATION ENDING BUT ALSO NOTICED
GRAVITY WAVES WORKING SOUTH. SURFACE COLD FRONT AT 20Z OR 3PM
LOOKS TO BE PUSHING THROUGH N TEXAS WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AHEAD OF IT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEVELOPED LONG WAVE
TROUGH STRETCHING FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER S HUDSON BAY. ONE
ELONGATED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHED W TO E ACROSS THE AREA WITH A
SECOND STRONGER TROUGH AXIS THROUGH THE S PLAINS. AMPLIFIED
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STORMS COULD
FORM ON THE FRONT TONIGHT PER LATEST HRRR MODEL TRENDS SO WILL
KEEP SOME RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WITH A DRIER AIRMASS
ARRIVING DURING THE DAY. SURFACE DEWPOINTS COULD DROP INTO THE 40S
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. MIN TEMPS SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE QUITE COOL IN THE LOW 60S FOR MOST AREAS AND PERHAPS 50S
FOR AREAS NORTH OF HOUSTON. THE SAME WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. IN
OTHER WORDS GET OUT AND ENJOY THE FALL LIKE WEATHER.
.EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE FORECAST FOR TUE THROUGH FRI NEXT WEEK HAS BEEN CHALLENGING
WITH THE GFS REMAINING MOSTLY CONSISTENT AND THEN THE ECMWF
PRODUCING EITHER A HURRICANE OR NOW JUST A THUNDERSTORM IN THE
GULF. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF ARE IN MORE AGREEMENT.
BOTH MODELS SHOW THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OR COASTAL
TROUGH COULD FORM IN THE W GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW OR COASTAL TROUGH MOVES
NORTH...MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE AREA MID WEEK BUT IT
DOES NOT LOOK AS ROBUST AS BEFORE. PRECIP WATER VALUES MAY REACH
1.7-1.8 INCHES INSTEAD OF OVER 2 INCHES IN PRIOR MODEL RUNS. SO
RAIN CHANCES WERE TRIMMED A BIT BUT STILL THINK THERE MAY BE A
DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY FOR THE MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE CLOSER TO
NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WITH
ALL THAT SAID...CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY LOW THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT BASED ON CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS.
39
&&
.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF THIS MORNINGS PCPN MAKING SLOW PROGRESS SWD WITH IFR TO
LIFR CIGS PERSISTING OVER THE SRN SITES. ALSO STILL SEEING ISO SHRAS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE CWA (ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROF
SLOWLY NUDGING IN FROM THE NORTH). LIGHT NORTH WINDS EXPECTED IN THE
WAKE OF THIS BOUNDARY THIS EVE AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST. HOWEVER
WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT LAGGING THIS INITIAL LINE BY A FEW HRS...
WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF PATCHY BR DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ONCE THIS PCPN MOVES OUT. 41
&&
.MARINE...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS
THIS EVENING AS THE STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES OFFSHORE. RAIN CHC WILL
LIKELY LINGER OVERNITE AS THE PREFRONTAL TROF APPROACHES FROM THE N.
THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY SAT MORN
WITH LIGHT/MODERATE NE FLOW DEVELOPING SAT AFTN THRU SUN. AS THE SFC
HIGH NUDGES EAST OF THE STATE...WE SHOULD EXPECT A MORE EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW BY SUN NIGHT. MARINE WINDS TO BECOME MORE SELY DURING THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WX RETURNING AS WELL.
41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 73 87 61 87 64 / 30 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 73 88 61 85 64 / 20 10 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 77 87 73 84 74 / 30 20 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1054 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
RADAR TRENDS SHOW MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING NORTH OF HOUSTON AND SOUTH OF A COLLEGE STATION TO
HUNTSVILLE LINE. STORM MOTIONS ARE MORE FROM THE NORTH WITH THIS
ACTIVITY AND LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME PUSH SOUTHWARD OF
A STALLED FRONT FROM YESTERDAY OVER C AND E TX. THE STRONGER COLD
FRONT WHICH SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER AND SOME COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
THE WEEKEND WAS STILL LOCATED BACK OVER OKLAHOMA AND TX PANHANDLE.
THIS FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER
AIR LAGGING BEHIND.
RECENT TRENDS WITH THE HRRR SEEM NOT TO BE PICKING UP ON NEW
DEVELOPMENT WELL SO WILL AT LEAST LEAVE SOME THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON WITH THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHING
THROUGH. DO EXPECT LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND THINK MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE IN TIME FOR THE EVENING RUSH HOUR. MAIN
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO UPDATE RAIN CHANCES AND THEN
TEMPERATURE TRENDS WITH RAIN COOLED AIRMASS WHICH WITH CLOUD COVER
SHOULD NOT HEAT UP MUCH.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE BIG METRO
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS SOUTH TO THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE THEN FORECASTING A BREAK TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING MORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FELT THAT THE ARW AND HRRR MODELS WERE DOING
WELL SO FAR THIS MORNING AND BOTH LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A PREFRONTAL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO KIAH AND KHOU. THE SREF FOG
PROBABILITIES REACH OVER 30 PERCENT FOR KSGR AND KLBX FOR
GENERALLY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 2.10
AND 2.30 INCHES. RAP IS DOING A GOOD JOB THIS MORNING AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF RAP BLEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TODAY
WITH CONVECTION TRENDING TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/COASTAL ZONES BY MID AFTN. WITH PW VALUES AOA 2.00
INCHES...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS BUT THERE IS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH ALIGNED FROM KIAH TO KLRD AND THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS
SOME TRAINING THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM ABOUT JOPLIN MO TO ARDMORE OK TO CHILDRESS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND CROSS SE TX LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SE TX ON SATURDAY AND DEW PTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTN BUT REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF SE TX SAT
NITE THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM START TO SATURDAY COUPLED WITH THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD YIELD SOME WARM TEMPS BUT LOWER 850 TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF
30 KNOTS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
TUES/WED. NOT SURE HOW FAR INLAND MOISTURE WILL GET AND HAVE
TAPERED POPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM KGLS TO KCLL. THE ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN THU/FRI AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IMPINGES ON SE TX. 43
MARINE...
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN AT LEAST CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
40
CLIMATE...
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.68 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT BRINGS THE 2015 ANNUAL TOTAL TO 54.79 INCHES WHICH EXCEEDS
THE 1981-2010 30 YEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 54.65 INCHES. IN OTHER
WORDS...HOBBY EXCEEDED THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL IN JUST OVER
NINE MONTHS. WITH THREE MONTHS TO GO...THE 2015 TOTAL WILL LIKELY
GROW. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 73 88 62 86 / 50 30 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 85 73 88 63 83 / 70 30 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 76 84 74 84 / 70 50 30 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
640 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE BIG METRO
AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS SOUTH TO THE COAST THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE THEN FORECASTING A BREAK TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH WITH DAYTIME HEATING MORE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER 17Z. NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER FELT THAT THE ARW AND HRRR MODELS WERE DOING
WELL SO FAR THIS MORNING AND BOTH LOWER CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON.
THE FRONT WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
A PREFRONTAL FRONT WILL PUSH INTO KIAH AND KHOU. THE SREF FOG
PROBABILITIES REACH OVER 30 PERCENT FOR KSGR AND KLBX FOR
GENERALLY THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 2.10
AND 2.30 INCHES. RAP IS DOING A GOOD JOB THIS MORNING AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF RAP BLEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TODAY
WITH CONVECTION TRENDING TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/COASTAL ZONES BY MID AFTN. WITH PW VALUES AOA 2.00
INCHES...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS BUT THERE IS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH ALIGNED FROM KIAH TO KLRD AND THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS
SOME TRAINING THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM ABOUT JOPLIN MO TO ARDMORE OK TO CHILDRESS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND CROSS SE TX LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SE TX ON SATURDAY AND DEW PTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTN BUT REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF SE TX SAT
NITE THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM START TO SATURDAY COUPLED WITH THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD YIELD SOME WARM TEMPS BUT LOWER 850 TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF
30 KNOTS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
TUES/WED. NOT SURE HOW FAR INLAND MOISTURE WILL GET AND HAVE
TAPERED POPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM KGLS TO KCLL. THE ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN THU/FRI AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IMPINGES ON SE TX. 43
MARINE...
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN AT LEAST CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
40
CLIMATE...
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.68 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT BRINGS THE 2015 ANNUAL TOTAL TO 54.79 INCHES WHICH EXCEEDS
THE 1981-2010 30 YEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 54.65 INCHES. IN OTHER
WORDS...HOBBY EXCEEDED THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL IN JUST OVER
NINE MONTHS. WITH THREE MONTHS TO GO...THE 2015 TOTAL WILL LIKELY
GROW. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 73 88 62 86 / 50 30 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 73 88 63 83 / 70 30 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 76 84 74 84 / 60 50 30 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...43
AVIATION/MARINE...40
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
408 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION STARTING A LITTLE EARLIER THIS MORNING AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO APPROACHES SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THE
FLOW ALOFT REMAINS DIVERGENT AND PW VALUES REMAIN BETWEEN 2.10
AND 2.30 INCHES. RAP IS DOING A GOOD JOB THIS MORNING AND WILL
LEAN TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF RAP BLEND. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS TODAY
WITH CONVECTION TRENDING TOWARD LESS COVERAGE OVER THE
CENTRAL/COASTAL ZONES BY MID AFTN. WITH PW VALUES AOA 2.00
INCHES...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. STORM
MOTION SHOULD BE BETWEEN 10-15 KNOTS BUT THERE IS A WEAK SFC
TROUGH ALIGNED FROM KIAH TO KLRD AND THIS FEATURE COULD FOCUS
SOME TRAINING THIS MORNING. AT 3 AM...A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
FROM ABOUT JOPLIN MO TO ARDMORE OK TO CHILDRESS. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT AND CROSS SE TX LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT MIGHT TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHRA BUT MOST OF THE MOISTURE
IS SHUNTED EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
THAN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA.
DRIER AIR WILL SLOWLY WORK INTO SE TX ON SATURDAY AND DEW PTS WILL
LOWER INTO THE 50S NORTH OF I-10 DURING THE AFTN BUT REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST. DRIER AIR WILL COVER ALL OF SE TX SAT
NITE THROUGH MONDAY. A WARM START TO SATURDAY COUPLED WITH THE
DRIER AIR SHOULD YIELD SOME WARM TEMPS BUT LOWER 850 TEMPS ON
SUNDAY SHOULD PRODUCE SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS ON SUNDAY.
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE MEXICAN COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND THIS FEATURE WILL EXTEND NORTH ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS OF
30 KNOTS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH SHEAR TO INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT.
THE TROUGH WILL FOCUS HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST ON
TUES/WED. NOT SURE HOW FAR INLAND MOISTURE WILL GET AND HAVE
TAPERED POPS RATHER SIGNIFICANTLY FROM KGLS TO KCLL. THE ELONGATED
SURFACE TROUGH WEAKENS AND WILL MOVE INLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE AGAIN THU/FRI AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
EXPANDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IMPINGES ON SE TX. 43
&&
.MARINE...
EXPECT ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS TODAY AND A FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING WITH
OFFSHORE WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODELS DO NOT
INCREASE WIND SPEEDS UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN AT LEAST CAUTION CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED. A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN OCCUR ON
MONDAY AND A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
40
&&
.CLIMATE...
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT RECEIVED 0.68 INCHES OF RAIN YESTERDAY.
THAT BRINGS THE 2015 ANNUAL TOTAL TO 54.79 INCHES WHICH EXCEEDS
THE 1981-2010 30 YEAR AVERAGE RAINFALL OF 54.65 INCHES. IN OTHER
WORDS...HOBBY EXCEEDED THEIR NORMAL YEARLY RAINFALL IN JUST OVER
NINE MONTHS. WITH THREE MONTHS TO GO...THE 2015 TOTAL WILL LIKELY
GROW. 43
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 89 73 88 62 86 / 50 30 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 87 73 88 63 83 / 70 30 20 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 84 76 84 74 84 / 60 50 30 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
1223 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 2015
.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CIRRUS DEBRIS LEFTOVER FROM CONVECTION
OUT WEST. VFR WILL INITIALLY PREVAIL DURING THE MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH...WITH
DEGRADED AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT AS THE FRONT INTRUDES INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO POOL ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS
WELL SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH
OF THE VALLEY AND HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DECREASING TREND OVER THE
PAST HOUR AND THIS IS ECHOED IN THE MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL.
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WILL SEE A MIX OF MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN MOIST
CONDS ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. WINDS WILL LAY DOWN AROUND MID
EVENING AND REMAIN BELOW 10 KTS THROUGH AROUND MID MORNING.
CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP 14-15Z AROUND 2500 FEET AND WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO PICK UP AT THIS TIME WITH GUSTS 18-22 KNOTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
WITH MAINLY ISOLD TO SCT SEABREEZE CONVECTION AFFECTING THE TAF
SITES WITH MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION AFFECTING WEST OF RGC-HBV
LATE AFTERNOON. WILL INSERT VCTS TO THE TAF SITES BEGINNING LATE
MORNING FRIDAY. TEMPO MVFR CONDS CAN BE EXPECTED UNDER ANY STORM
FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/
SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...MORE ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST AUTUMN COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEXAS. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS SETTLING INTO
THE REGION ALREADY...WITH PW VALUES ALREADY ABOVE 2 INCHES.
MOISTURE COMPRESSING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SMALLER BOUNDARIES
HAVE ALREADY SPARKED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE SEABREEZE TODAY...BUT
INSTABILITY ALOFT HAS STAYED WELL OFFSHORE STILL. TOMORROW WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY...RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY AREAWIDE...
STARTING TO THE NORTH AND MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WITH PW VALUES FORECAST ABOVE 2.2 INCHES...ANY RAINFALL
WILL LIKELY BE VERY HEAVY IN SOME LOCATIONS. SINCE STORMS ARE
FIRING WITH A MOVING BOUNDARY...CELLS WONT BE IDLING ON ONE
LOCATION FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. THE MAIN FOCUS TIME FOR THE
RAINFALL WILL BE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ABOVE 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEY. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE HIGHER TOMORROW...
SO HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 90 DEGREES...
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN RANCHLANDS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...THE BEST LIFT SHOULD BE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR
CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME LINGERING MODERATE RAIN POTENTIAL EARLY SATURDAY...BUT THE
MODELS SEEM TO AGREE WITH PUSHING MOST OF THE ENERGY SOUTH OF THE
RIVER BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE CANADIAN DIFFERS SLIGHTLY WITH
HIGHER QPF ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY MORNING...AS OPPOSED TO OVER
THE MID AND UPPER VALLEY PER THE GFS/ECMWF. TIME HEIGHT SHOWS
DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR MOVING IN SATURDAY AS DEEPER NORTHEAST WINDS
SET UP. THUS...LIGHTER RAINS...WITH A FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND AN
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY...WILL BE THE RULE SATURDAY.
TROPICAL...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN LOW PRESSURE IN
THE SOUTHWEST GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DRIFTING A WEAK
CIRCULATION NORTH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST TOWARD BROWNSVILLE BY
TUESDAY...WHERE IT WILL REMAIN IDENTIFIABLE AS A FEATURE.
MARINE...
NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAIN MARINE THREAT IS CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MARINE INSTABILITY
WILL BRING INCREASED COVERAGE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
FURTHER OFFSHORE NEARER THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2
TO 3 FEET...EXCEPT FOR HIGHER AGITATION NEAR STORMS. THE COLD
FRONT ARRIVES LATE TOMORROW...WITH A MODEST WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHEAST. SINCE THE FRONT IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN WHEN IT
ARRIVES...NORTHEAST FLOW WILL REMAIN 15KTS OR LESS BEHIND THE WIND
SHIFT. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS FROM BUILDING SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT...STAYING ABOUT 3 FEET.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO
MODERATE SEAS WILL PREVAIL ALONG THE LWR TEXAS COAST INITIALLY...
BUT A SURGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE NORTHEAST
WIND...HELPING TO BUMP SEAS UP A COUPLE OF FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH.
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1156 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
.AVIATION...
SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING FOCUS EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ALONG THE COAST...EXPANDING PRECIPITATION INLAND INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. A NEAR CALM WIND FIELD WITHIN THIS VERY MOIST AIR
MASS MAY INDUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR SUNRISE MVFR CEILINGS...POSSIBLE
VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BR OVER MORE RURAL HUBS THAT EXPERIENCED RAINFALL
TODAY. VFR CEILINGS...MVFR CONDITIONS WITHIN HEAVY RAINFALL/STORMS.
GENERALLY ONSHORE WINDS...BECOMING VARIABLE AFTER SUNSET. 31
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AS IS THIS EVENING. LOOK FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER/
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TOWARD THE COAST IN THE MORNING WITH
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND DURING THE DAY. TOMORROW`S CHANCE
FOR STORMS LOOKS BEST NEAR THE COAST WITH THE LOWER VALUES INLAND...
JUST AS THE CURRENT FORECAST SAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL ACROSS
THE AREA. SIMILAR TO TODAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 1 TO 2 INCH
TOTALS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS GETTING INTO A 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE NUMBERS. 42
PREV DISCUSSION...
AVIATION...
CONVECTION DYING OUT OVER THE NEXT HOUR...SCATTERED LOW TO MID
LEVEL DECKS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TO SKC OR SCT250 BY 03Z. VERY BRIEF
PERIODS OF INTERIOR RURAL MVFR DECKS AT...OR SHORTLY AFTER...SUNRISE.
RETURNING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED STORMS CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING
DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS...TRANSITIONING TO MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
NUMEROUS CLUSTERED STORMS FROM AROUND 17Z THROUGH 22-23Z. SIMILAR
LARGE SCALE SETUP WITH BROAD WEAK TOUGHING OVER THE STATE...ENOUGH
LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO COMMENCE CONVECTION ONCE
MID 80S SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE MET. 31
PREV DISCUSSION...
DISCUSSION...
RADAR THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER E HARRIS COUNTY WHERE
STORMS ARE PRODUCING RAIN RATES OF 2 INCHES AN HOUR. THERE IS ALSO
A BAND OF ACTIVITY ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AUSTIN TO
COLLEGE STATION EAST TO JASPER. LATEST TRENDS WITH THE HRRR MODEL
SEEM TO SHOW ACTIVITY ENDING BETWEEN 00-03Z THIS EVENING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGE LOOP SHOWS A WEAK JET STREAK/SHORTWAVE PUSHING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE HELPING TO ENHANCE
CONVECTION. OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS ON TRACK WITH A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE N ROCKIES WHICH WILL
HELP AMPLIFY THE TROUGH FROM SW OF HUDSON BAY TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES TOMORROW AND FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN...FORECAST WILL HOLD ONTO 60/70 POPS.
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ALL SUPPORT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SIMILAR
TO TODAY`S ACTIVITY. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ADDED TROUGH AXIS THAT
PUSHES THROUGH FRI TO HELP INCREASE LARGE SCALE LIFT. AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE TODAY...EXPECTING A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WITH
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE
TYPE...VERY WELL COULD HAVE AREAS THAT GET NO RAINFALL BUT THEN
AREAS THAT GET TOO MUCH. THERE MAY BE FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
OF THE HIGHER AMOUNTS BUT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...COLD FRONT
WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA AND OFF THE COAST. LATEST TIMING
FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SHOWS IT REACHING COLLEGE STATION TO
HUNTSVILLE AROUND 1-3AM SATURDAY...REACHING HOUSTON CLOSER TO
6-8AM AND OFF THE COAST BEFORE NOON SATURDAY. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
TO THE N/NE. THE MUCH DRIER COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND
THE FRONT AND NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT. THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT BUT GIVEN THE MOISTURE CONTENT WILL
AT LEAST HAVE A 30 PERCENT IN THE FORECAST.
WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL CERTAINLY GIVE EVERYONE A
GOOD TASTE OF FALL WEATHER WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S...PERHAPS
UPPER 50S FOR AREAS NORTH OF HOUSTON. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE MID 80S. ENJOY IT WHILE YOU CAN BECAUSE THE MOISTURE SHOULD
BE BACK TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST...STILL VERY UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO A SURGE
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. GFS HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT AND HAS HAD ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT OF MAINLY A SURFACE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE W
GULF AND PUSHING NORTH TOWARDS THE AREA. THE ECMWF THE LAST 2 RUNS
HAS NOW TAPPED THE BREAKS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALTHOUGH
IT STILL WANTS TO DEVELOP SOME TYPE OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IT
SLOWLY PUSHES TOWARDS THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NEXT WEEK. GFS
CONTINUES TO HOLD ONTO SOME W SHEAR ACROSS THE N GULF WITH THE
ECMWF STILL HAVING SOMEWHAT OF A RIDGE. THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
PATTERNS WILL LIKELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH SHEAR DEVELOPS OVER THE NW
GULF AND IF THERE IS ANY DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS POINT IT DOES NOT
LOOK LIKELY BUT WE WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR FORECAST DATA. 39
MARINE...
NOT TOO MANY CHANGES WITH THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FCST AS MOSTLY
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS PREVAIL...ALONG WITH THE WIDESPREAD STORMS THRU
TOMORROW(FRI). MODELS STILL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT MORNING. GENERALLY
LIGHT/MODERATE NE WINDS TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE...FROM SAT AFTN INTO
SUN MORNING. AS THIS FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE GULF AND A WEAK
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE LOWER TX COAST...WE
SHOULD START SEEING A MORE EASTERLY FETCH DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER
TX COAST SUN AFTN/EVE. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN HELP TO BRING PERIODS
OF SHRA/TSRA AND PERHAPS A PROLONGED PERIOD OF ESE WINDS TO THE
REGION FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 89 71 86 61 / 30 40 30 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 87 71 86 62 / 40 60 30 20 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 78 84 76 86 72 / 50 70 50 30 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1142 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015
.AVIATION...
GREATEST CONCERNS THIS ITERATION CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND
THUNDER CHANCES AND A FROPA. A SOUTHEAST MOVING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL
AFFECT KCDS BY AROUND 09Z...IF IT CAN MAINTAIN ITSELF. CONFIDENCE
IN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDER AFFECTING KCDS IN THE PREDAWN HOURS IS
NOW HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. FURTHER WEST..KPVW AND KLBB
COULD ALSO SEE CONVECTION ATTEMPT TO FORM AS OUTFLOW FROM THE
PANHANDLE COMPLEX ADVANCES SOUTHWARD...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOWER AND HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED EXPLICITLY IN THE TAFS. THE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT /OR ERRATIC
WINDS/ TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS BEFORE DAWN...WITH BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THEN TO BUILD IN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY
LATE MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE GREATEST CONFIDENCE BEING AT
KLBB AND KPVW...WHERE PROB30 GROUPS WERE INCLUDED. OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
PERHAPS A RISK OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015/
SHORT TERM...
A PROMINENT FEATURE IN THE WEATHER TODAY HAS BEEN A BAND OF CIRRUS
ARCING FROM CENTRAL ARIZONA ACROSS WEST TEXAS. THIS IS ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION OF DECAYING
TROPICAL STORM LINDA OFF THE WEST COAST OF BAJA. UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THIS MOISTURE IS LIMITED TO THE UPPER TROPOSPHERE WITH
MID-LEVELS REMAINING FAIRLY DRY AND UNSUPPORTIVE OF ANY CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...WE ARE SEEING SOME DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO IN VICINITY OF THE RATON MESA. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL CARRY THIS ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ASSUMING IT SURVIVES THE TREK
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS. THE HRRR IS ABOUT THE THE
ONLY MODEL THAT INDICATES THIS...BUT WE WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TX PANHANDLE BETWEEN 00 AND 06
UTC TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. BETTER T-STORM/RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD ARRIVE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A FAIRLY SHARP COLD FRONT
MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH IN CONJUNCTION WITH A GLANCING BLOW FROM A
SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN KANSAS AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING IT/S TIMING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA OWING TO THE IMPACT OF
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ON THE FRONT. IN ADDITION...IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL SYNCH UP WITH THE BEST
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING WAVE. FINALLY...THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT...PASSING THROUGH THE AREA ROUGHLY BETWEEN 12
UTC AND 18 UTC...IS NOT OPTIMAL FOR THE GENERATION OF INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTION. WITH THIS IN MIND...WE HAVE KEPT POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT LEND ITSELF FOR LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS.
IN GENERAL...GUIDANCE FAVORS A BROAD ZONE OR CLUSTER OF ALONG AND
POST- FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY MORNING FOLLOWING
THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST....AND GRADUALLY TAPERING
OFF FROM THE NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND LAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARKEDLY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR SW TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT...WE MAY STILL STILL SOME HIGH TEMPS REACH 90 DOWN IN
THE SOUTHERN ROLLING PLAINS.
LONG TERM...
MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY SW BY FRIDAY EVENING IN THE
WAKE OF THE 850-700 MB COLD FRONT. THE DRIEST SURFACE RIDGING WILL
LAG UNTIL SATURDAY MORNING...SO POST-FRONTAL STRATUS AIDED BY E-NE
WINDS SHOULD LINGER ESPECIALLY ON THE CAPROCK BEFORE ERODING BY
MIDDAY SAT. SOME OF THIS STRATUS IS PROGGED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY THICK
FRI NIGHT THAT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MATERIALIZE FROM WEAK FN FORCING
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED ELEVATED FRONTAL LAYER...BUT POPS OVERALL
WERE SKIMMED BACK EVEN FURTHER THAN BEFORE.
SAT MORNING WILL SEE SURFACE WINDS VEER SELY BEHIND THE PROGRESSIVE
SURFACE RIDGE AND THIS PROCESS WILL AID IN WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA COINCIDENT WITH A MODEST AXIS OF
HIGHER PWATS. WHILE SATURATED DEPTHS ARE NOT MUCH TO WRITE ABOUT...
THE BRUNT OF THIS SATURATION IS BELOW 700 MB WHICH COULD BE WRUNG
OUT IN THE FORM OF SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRIZZLE PROVIDED STRATUS CAN
DESCEND LOW ENOUGH AT TIMES. CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY COULD OPEN THE
DOOR TO WEAK CAPE ACROSS EASTERN NM UNDERNEATH 10-20 KNOTS OF NW
FLOW...HOWEVER NO DISCERNIBLE BACKGROUND SUPPORT PRECLUDES FURTHER
POPS AT THIS TIME. EVEN WITH CLEARING...BELOW NORMAL HIGHS REMAIN ON
TRACK GIVEN OUR PROXIMITY TO THE SURFACE RIDGE. THIS COOL THEME WILL
BE SHORT LIVED AS SUNDAY AND BEYOND FEATURE LEE TROUGHING BENEATH
AMPLIFYING SW FLOW. SIDED CLOSE TO THE WARMEST MEX AND ECE MOS HIGHS
NEXT WEEK AS THIS LOOKS TO BE A VERY DRY AND BREEZY PATTERN FOR WEST
TX. SUCH DRY SOILS IN THIS SETUP ARGUE IN FAVOR OF A RATHER STRONG
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE...SO LOWS WERE NUDGED BELOW THE MILD SUPERBLEND
VALUES.
A SMALL WINDOW FOR MID-LEVEL MOISTENING MAY UNFOLD NEAR MIDWEEK AS A
BROAD TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS. MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LIKELY BE THINNED OUT BY THIS TIME...BUT SOME
UPTICK IN PWATS MAY BE REALIZED BY TUE AND WED AS THE SW FLOW TURNS
WEAKLY CYCLONIC. WHETHER THIS RESULTS IN PRECIP ALONG A DRYLINE
IN/NEAR OUR AREA IS TOO UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH OUR REGION
RESIDING LARGELY SOUTH OF THE UPPER JET MAXIMA.
LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
$$
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 60 76 55 76 / 20 50 20 10
TULIA 62 77 55 77 / 20 50 10 10
PLAINVIEW 62 79 55 77 / 20 40 10 10
LEVELLAND 62 82 56 76 / 10 40 20 10
LUBBOCK 63 82 57 77 / 10 40 20 10
DENVER CITY 63 85 58 77 / 10 40 30 10
BROWNFIELD 63 84 57 77 / 10 40 20 10
CHILDRESS 68 82 59 81 / 10 40 10 0
SPUR 66 85 58 79 / 10 40 10 0
ASPERMONT 69 90 60 82 / 10 40 10 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
23/07/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1019 PM EDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT BEFORE EXITING SUNDAY
MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AND REMAIN
ABOUT OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1010 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN PENNSYLVANIA TO A LOW ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE LOW IN THE CAROLINAS
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MAY PUSH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
12Z/8AM. RADAR AT 02Z WAS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE INDIANA/KENTUCKY
BORDER. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE
STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. THE LIFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO MORE UPSLOPE FORCING BY MORNING...SHIFTING THE BEST PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THESE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE ONSET OF DECENT COOL ADVECTION TO TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND FALLING 85H
TEMPS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS. APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE TO
SUPPORT ADDED SHRA WEST WITH EVEN SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME COVERAGE
SPILL EAST UNTIL BETTER DOWNSLOPE ARRIVES VERY LATE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELYS WEST AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS EAST. KEPT
LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS ESPCLY PIEDMONT WHERE COOL
ADVECTION WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO 60.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY 50S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICAL LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. AS THE AXIS
OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
FOLLOW THE PASSING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WHILE THIS
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RUN 10F COOLER THAN
NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY EDGE INTO THE
20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT GET
CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THE REGION IS ENGULFED IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
IF THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 800 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN A WEST NORTHWEST WINDSHIFT IN ITS
WAKE. WITH THE WINDSHIFT...EXPECT GUSTS THROUGH THE NIGHT TO REACH
AS HIGH AS 20KTS AT TIMES. WILL MAINTAIN VFR FOR KDAN/KLYH
OVERNIGHT...LOW END BKN VFR/HIGH END MVFR AT KROA...AND MVFR TO
IFR CEILINGS OVER THE KBLF/KLWB CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST TOWARD
KBCB. AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH/UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...
ALSO EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WEST. SKIES WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW LIFTS OUT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
SHOULD SEE ALL SITES BECOME VFR SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ACROSS US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK KEEPING PRIMARILY
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXCEPTIONS COULD BE SOME FOG AT KLWB/KBCB
DURING THE DAWN HOURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/JH
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...JH/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1111 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
The rather deep upper trof that produced the scattered showers and
isolated storms this afternoon across east central and southeast
IL has shifted east of the forecast area early this evening. High
pressure to our northwest will track slowly across the area over
the next 12 hours bringing clear and calm conditions for the
overnight hours along with chilly early morning lows. Temperatures
early this evening have already dropped to near 50 at Galesburg
with most of the remainder of the area in the middle 50s this
hour.
Had to make some minor tweaks to the temperature trends this eve
due to the rapid temp fall over the past couple of hours with a
few downward adjustments to the early morning lows as well. Surface
ridge axis by morning forecast to be over extreme western IL before
shifting off to our east by afternoon, allowing winds to gradually
become southwest signaling the onset of a warming trend that
should last well into the new work week. Updated ZFP will be out
by 900 pm.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Vorticity maximum centered between Springfield and Decatur this
afternoon per water vapor imagery, within the deep upper trough that
covers much of the Midwest. RAP guidance shows a cold pocket of 500
mb temps near -24C just south of this, which has helped feed the
scattered showers that have formed over east central and southeast
Illinois. Drier air in the lower levels have resulted in a bit of
small hail accompanying the heavier showers. Other showers near
Champaign have been tracking south-southwest off Lake Michigan with
more behind them, although wind trajectories are starting to turn
more northerly and the lake feed should shift more to along the
Indiana border. The diurnal cloudiness is fading some across the far
northern CWA, and should rapidly dissipate over the forecast area by
sunset, with mostly clear conditions prevailing overnight. Still
looks to be a cool night, with temperatures falling into the mid
40s.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 239 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Morning upper air and moisture channel data depicts deep upper level
over Great Lakes into sotheast MO. Series of weak vort maxes/lobes
in the mid MS river valley rotating through the bottom of the trof,
with main max near Quad Cities moving SSE. With ample low level
moisture, and cold air aloft, scattered showers over the eastern
portions of cwa today, lingering into evening.
Models drift the upper trof to the east into Sunday, allowing
warming low and mid level flow to begin to work into state. Upper
ridge begins to build toward area and slow warming trend into
midweek.
In the extended period, models have agreed a bit more on slowing of
the approaching next frontal system. System approaches now Friday,
with pops delayed into Thursday night, with better chances for rain
Friday and Friday night with front, on the latest run. A bit cooler
with the increased cloud cover with front. Exact details on frontal
passage still somewhat hazy.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
VFR conditions will continue thru this forecast period. High
pressure will slowly drift across the area Sunday morning
bringing a clear sky and light winds to the region before
moving off to our east by afternoon. As the ridge axis shifts
across the area Sunday, we may see some cirrus push across the
area but that is about it cloud-wise. Light and variable winds
tonight will gradually shift into the southwest during the
afternoon with speeds of 10 kts or less.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Smith
SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Smith
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
1127 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Some isolated showers have developed across central KS due to
isentropic lift. The RAP seems to be handling this the best so
have inserted some small pops for isolated showers through mid
morning.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Northwest flow persisted in the upper levels today while surface
high pressure was centered nearly directly overhead. The surface
high will slowly shift east overnight with southerly return flow
pattern, already in place in central KS, will intensify slightly and
shift east through tonight. A narrow band of moisture and isentropic
ascent that developed on the eastern fringe of the return flow this
morning is expected to develop in similar fashion again overnight
tonight. While the morning lift was able to produce light rain
showers and sprinkles, the moist layer to be lifted tonight is not
particularly deep and has only a few J/kg of elevated CAPE...so
think that showers should struggle a bit more tonight. Virtually all
model guidance agrees with this as well, keeping any very light
shower activity south of the forecast area. Did keep overnight lows
a bit warmer though as there should be a fair amount of mid level
cloud cover. Clouds are likely to dissipate by tomorrow afternoon,
and some warm advection should lead to temperatures in the middle
70s east to lower 80s in central KS.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
On Sunday night the mid-level pattern will begin to transition to
southwest flow aloft with several weak embedded shortwave troughs.
Each wave will bring a slight for showers and storms due to the
associated lift. Also, isentropic lift across the area should
support isolated to scattered precip Monday morning and possibly
lasting through the afternoon hours. Both Monday and Tuesday night
the isentropic lift increases and weak shortwaves track close to the
area therefore bringing precip chances yet again. The highs will
climb into the mid to upper 80s with a few low 90s on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Later in the week a series of shortwaves progress over
the northern plains and upper Midwest, which will drag a cold front
towards the area. Depending on the timing of the front Thursday
could warm into the upper 80s to low 90s. The GFS is faster with the
frontal arrival during the day Thursday, while the ECMWF hold off
until the overnight. Not too confident in the precip chances
associated with the front due to timing issues and possible
mesoscale features. Behind the front will bring cooler temperatures
as the front reaches southern KS and northern OK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015
Coverage in shower activity is expected to remain isolated and
mainly southwest of the terminals. There could still be some light
rain, especially in MHK but its impact should be minimal as
conditions remain VFR. If a stronger shower moves in, there could
be some brief MVFR VSBY, but trying to time this is almost
impossible so will keep monitoring trends and amend if necessary.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
427 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. TROF IS IMPRESSIVELY DEEP
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AT 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM MID SEPT AVG. MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL DOWN INTO THE
30S OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND FREEZING.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK
ABOUT THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING SW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES
RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL RAISE 850MB
TEMPS FROM 4C E AND 8C W AT 12Z TO 9C E AND 12C W BY EVENING. THIS
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD YIELD A BAND OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WILL SPREAD WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
COMPARED TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...TONIGHT WILL BE
MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE ACTIVE AND WARMER THAN
THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL START AS ZONAL AND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SWLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE WRN
CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE E. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHORTWAVES
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY EARLY TO
MID WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE THU INTO FRI AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL BE GREATER. FLOW NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE ZONAL WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CHARGE.
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MON INTO WED...WHICH IS BACKED UP BE LIMITED MODEL
QPF DURING THIS TIME. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
MON...GOING FROM 12-18C IN THE MORNING TO 15-20C IN THE EVENING.
THIS WARMER AIRMASS STICKS AROUND THROUGH THU. EXACT TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID-
UPPER 80S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM SW WINDS.
COULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE
IMPROVES SOMEWHAT AND OVERALL FORCING IMPROVES DUE TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVES MOVING NEARBY. STILL WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
SFC LOW TO MOVE NW-N OF THE CWA THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. PRECIP LOOKS MORE
CERTAIN ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FRONT FROM THE W. THE GFS IS AROUND 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THAT IS MINOR AT THAT TIME RANGE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WITH ONE EXCEPTION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. THERE MAY BE SOME SHALLOW FOG AT KSAW LATE IN THE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING BUT THE PROBABILIITY OF VSBY REDUCTION IS TOO LOW
FOR MENTION AT THIS TIME. SHALLOW FOG (MVFR VIS) AT KIWD SHOULD
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AS SSW WINDS DEVELOP.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS.
ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
359 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY...BRINING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WAA AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. BREEZY WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE VERY HIGH LEVEL MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT...WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...AND RELATIVELY
DRY FUELS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE LATEST SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ALSO INDICATE
AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW PASSES BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
WEST / SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TIMING OF THE WEAKER / MORE SUBTLE WAVES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IS DIFFICULT...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME AGREEMENT
THAT A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
THEIR THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WITH EVEN A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CATCHING A SMALL SLIVER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES IN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST H5 WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODEL BLEND PICKS UP ON THIS AND STILL
HAS LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BRINGS ACROSS A STRONGER
H5 WAVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SINCE TIMING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE CAN EASILY CHANGE.
INSTABILITY BECOMES VERY LIMITED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED
THUNDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 40
DEGREES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA INDICATE AMPLE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 15 TO 20 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS START TO DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DRIER WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS. THE LATEST FROM FIRE
OFFICIALS IS THAT THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO CURE AND WOULD CARRY
FIRE FAIRLY EASILY. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1233 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR THE 06Z TAFS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...MAINLY
FOR ALI AND TO A LESSER EXTENT VCT. DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND A DRY
AIRMASS ALOFT...WET GROUND AND NEAR SFC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG WITH ALI TAF SITE THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR
IFR VSBY`S. CAN NOT RULE OUT PATCHY FOG FOR LRD AND CRP TAF
SITES...BUT THESE AREAS ARE LESS LIKELY...THUS WILL NOT MENTION IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY MID MORNING
SUNDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION BELOW FOR 00Z UPDATE.
AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. LIGHT FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE DAYBREAK AT ALI
AND VCT...BRINGING MVFR VSBYS. MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE
EARLY MORNING AS WELL AT VCT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD AT CRP. OVER LRD ALSO ANTICIPATE MVFR CIGS WITH A
BROKEN CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH THE MID MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BECOMING MORE NNE OVERNIGHT...AND TURNING E DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 244 PM CDT SAT SEP 12 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...THE TREND THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM WILL BE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTH TEXAS. PRIOR TO
THIS THOUGH...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA.
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR SUPPORTS THIS AND WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR
THESE AREAS THROUGH 00Z. PLEASANT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE NORTH
WITH LOWER 70S ELSEWHERE. DRY AIRMASS WILL BE ENTRENCHED ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY AS PW VALUES FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES. HIGHS
WILL STILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS THE EAST
WITH LOWER 90S TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
TO TONIGHT ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN MOSTLY
DRY AS THE DRIER AIRMASS INVADING THE AREA TODAY REMAINS IN PLACE.
THEREAFTER DEEP MSTR WILL INCREASE AS EASTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND
A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. CHC POPS WILL BE CONTINUED NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORKWEEK WITH
LOWER POPS WEST. MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND SO POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAVORED SEABREEZE AREAS.
MEX TEMPERATURES LOOK TOO WARM ACRS THE BOARD...ESPLY IN LIGHT OF
RECENT RAINS AND HV UNDERCUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 71 89 74 89 76 / 0 10 20 30 30
VICTORIA 65 88 69 88 74 / 0 10 10 20 20
LAREDO 71 95 73 95 75 / 0 10 0 10 10
ALICE 68 92 72 92 74 / 0 10 10 20 10
ROCKPORT 73 87 77 87 79 / 0 10 20 30 40
COTULLA 69 94 71 95 74 / 0 0 0 10 10
KINGSVILLE 70 91 73 91 75 / 0 10 10 30 20
NAVY CORPUS 74 87 77 87 78 / 0 10 20 30 30
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TE/81...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
146 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT OVERNIGHT BEFORE EXITING
SUNDAY MORNING. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON SUNDAY AND
REMAIN ABOUT OVERHEAD THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 120 AM EDT SUNDAY...
INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING IN THE EAST TO MATCH UP WITH RADAR AND
MODEL TRENDS.
AS OF 1010 PM EDT SATURDAY...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW IN PENNSYLVANIA TO A LOW ALONG
THE NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER. THE LOW IN THE CAROLINAS
WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND MAY PUSH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST COUNTY WARNING AREA BEFORE
12Z/8AM. RADAR AT 02Z WAS ALREADY SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. THE LATEST RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z/8AM.
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE INDIANA/KENTUCKY
BORDER. MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE
STRONG VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT. THE LIFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
TO MORE UPSLOPE FORCING BY MORNING...SHIFTING THE BEST PROBABILITY
OF SHOWERS NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION FOR THESE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE ONSET OF DECENT COOL ADVECTION TO TAKE SHAPE BEHIND THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING UPSLOPE UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND FALLING 85H
TEMPS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS. APPEARS ENOUGH LIFT WITH THIS FEATURE TO
SUPPORT ADDED SHRA WEST WITH EVEN SOME POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME COVERAGE
SPILL EAST UNTIL BETTER DOWNSLOPE ARRIVES VERY LATE. THIS SUPPORTS HIGH
CHANCE TO LOW LIKELYS WEST AND CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS EAST. KEPT
LOWS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS ESPCLY PIEDMONT WHERE COOL
ADVECTION WILL BE MUCH WEAKER AND MAY KEEP LOWS CLOSER TO 60.
OTHERWISE MOSTLY 50S FOR LOWS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE AND OROGRAPHICAL LIFT WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BRING RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY ALONG WESTERN SLOPES. AS THE AXIS
OF THIS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST IN THE AFTERNOON...DRIER AIR IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL DECREASE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND EVENTUALLY CLOUDS
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
FOLLOW THE PASSING OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THEN DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE WEST. THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WHILE THIS
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RUN 10F COOLER THAN
NORMAL. BY TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NORMAL. MOST
LOCATIONS WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 40S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMINDER OF THE
WORKWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT WILL LIKELY STALL OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR ZERO THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAY EDGE INTO THE
20 PERCENT RANGE FOR THE MOUNTAINS NEXT WEEKEND AS THE FRONT GET
CLOSER TO THE AREA. AS THE REGION IS ENGULFED IN THE WARM
SECTOR...TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME WARMER THAN NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND.
IF THE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 146 AM EDT SUNDAY...
A COLD FRONT THIS MORNING IS MOVING EAST ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS
OF FORECAST AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CREATING MVFR SHOWERS. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH/UPPER LOW PASSES OVERHEAD...EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECAILLY ACROSS THE WEST. SKIES WILL
IMPROVE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS OUT AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS
DURING THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS US THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK KEEPING PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXCEPTIONS COULD
BE SOME FOG AT KLWB/KBCB DURING THE DAWN HOURS.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...AMS/KK
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...KK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
426 AM PDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLING THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL COOLING NEXT WEEK
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AT TIMES, MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Scattered radar echoes early this morning over Sonoma, Napa,
Lake, Solano, Sacramento, San Joaquin, and Stanislaus counties.
It`s been difficult to verify if all echoes are resulting in
sprinkles, but there was an observation at the Santa Rosa Airport
of 0.01" light rain. Have added mention of sprinkles to the
forecast this morning for those counties (except Sonoma & Napa
which are not in our forecast area).
Cloud cover and any sprinkles are due to a weak low pressure
system straddling the Central/Northern CA coastline today coupled
with remnant moisture from former Hurricane Linda.
Instability associated with that low could also trigger a slight
chance of showers/thunderstorms over higher terrain of the Coastal
& Sierra ranges. Taking a look at the HRRR along with the NAM
CAPE and Modified Total Totals...it looks like the Sierra Crest
has a slightly better shot of development today than the Coastal
mountains.
The forecast highs for today will be a bit tricky. Clouds and
smoke (Butte & Valley wildfires) will impact how much solar
radiation reaches the surface similar to what happened yesterday
so expect highs today to be within a few degrees of yesterday.
Valley highs around mid 80s to mid 90s...Delta mid 70s to mid
80s...Mountains 70s to 80s.
For Monday into Wednesday a large synoptic trough pattern will
dominate over NorCal keeping temperatures cooler than normal with
increasing chances of rain. Tuesday and Wednesday will be the
coolest days this week with daytime highs as much as 10-20
degrees below normal in our CWA...we`re talking 70s in much of the
valley! Sprinkles and limited thunderstorm development possible on
Monday...rain on Tuesday over portions of NorCal...more
widespread chance of rain on Wednesday for much of our CWA.
JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)
Upper trough forecast to move through Pacific Northwest mid week
expected to be lifting to the northeast by early Thursday. ECMWF a
little slower with moving this trough out so kept chance pops in
for northern half of CWA. Precip chances move to the north
Thursday afternoon as upper trough continues eastward. GFS and
ECMWF have ridging building in my afternoon so most locations
should see some warming Thursday. Dry conditions expected for the
remainder of the extended period as flat ridging remains over the
west coast. A slow warming trend will bring daytime highs up back
above normal by next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
Mid level broken/overcast deck around 12-15kft expected to remain
over region through most of next 24 hours. Sustained winds
generally less than 15 knots TAF sites with gusts 25-30kts through
the delta. Generally VFR conditions next 24 hours except
occasional MVFR visibility due to smoke from wildfires.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
816 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST OF NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG IT. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY...TO THE GULF
OF MAINE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD NEXT WEEK WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NW SOMETIME NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
750 AM UPDATE...
NOTING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF N MA AT
1130Z HEADING TO THE NE. NOT MUCH PRECIP SEEN ON 1145Z NE REGIONAL
RADAR MOSAIC. MAY SEE DECENT BREAK IN ORGANIZED PRECIP...BUT COULD
STILL SEE SOME WIDELY SCT SHOWERS THROUGH MIDDAY BRINGING ONLY
LIGHT PRECIP.
AFTER LOOKING AT 10Z HRRR MODEL AS WELL AS 06Z NAM...STILL SEEING
DEVELOPMENT OF MESO LOW PRES AROUND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY INTO W
CT/MA AROUND 18Z-20Z. THIS LOOKS TO BRING MORE LIFT AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH WEAK ONSHORE FLOW /E-SE/ THAT MAY MEAN MORE
PRECIP DEVELOPING. DID CUT BACK ON PRECIP THROUGH MID MORNING...
THEN BLENDED TO BRING POPS BACK UP AROUND MIDDAY. ONCOMING SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
REMAINDER OF NEAR TERM FORECAST WAS IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE...BUT DID
UPDATE TO BRING CONDITIONS CURRENT AND INCORPORATED INTO NEAR TERM
TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE OF THE COMPLEX SYSTEM NEAR OUR REGION
WILL REMAIN TO OUR WEST TODAY. EXPECTING SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
TO DEVELOP AROUND LONG ISLAND INTO W CT...THEN WILL CROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS BY THIS EVENING. A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALSO ARRIVES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SHOWERS...MAINLY FROM MIDDAY INTO THIS EVENING.
INSTABILITY REMAINS POOR THROUGH THE DAY. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY...BUT IT WILL BE A
STRUGGLE TO GET THEM GOING.
NOT EXPECTING A LOT OF SUNSHINE TODAY...SO SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...
SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE SOUTH COAST INTO THE GULF OF
MAINE TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN END TO OUR SHOWERS FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE WEST
AND NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY.
MONDAY...
AN ANOMALOUS MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE/CONVEYOR BELT IS WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A STRONG COLD POOL ALOFT...EXPECTING PLENTY OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL BE A TRICKIER DETERMINATION.
WITH ONLY THE MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL AVAILABLE...ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. WOULD EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
IF THE CORE OF THIS COLD POOL PASSED CLOSER TO OUR REGION. THE
ABUNDANT CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR TO START...WILL MEAN SLIGHTLY LOWER
MAX TEMPERATURES. A GUSTY WEST WIND WILL BRING AN EARLY AUTUMN
FEEL.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* DRY WEATHER EXPECTED MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT WEEK
* EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RUN MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL BY MID WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND
* A COLD FRONT MAY START TO APPROACH OUT OF SOUTHERN QUEBEC NEXT
WEEKEND
OVERVIEW...
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG SIGNAL OF BUILDING
RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
U.S. THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS LONG RANGE PERIOD. THIS MEANS
A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
EXPECT TEMPS TO RUN WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH AT LEAST
FRIDAY...POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SOME MODEL SPREAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH POSSIBILITY OF RIDGE
FLATTENING IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WHILE A COLD FRONT AND MID
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRIES TO SINK INTO NEW ENGLAND. QUESTIONABLE
TIMING OF THIS FEATURE THIS FAR OUT...BUT SOMETHING TO MONITOR.
USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
PERIOD...BUT DID LEAN MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES FOR THE SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME DUE TO TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE POSSIBLE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT IF IT MAKES IT THAT FAR S WITH THE STRONG RIDGE IN
PLACE.
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...
H5 TROUGH EXITS THE REGION EARLY MON NIGHT...SO EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT. W-NW WINDS WILL BE IN
PLACE SO EXPECT TEMPS TO FALL BACK THROUGH THE 50S. A FEW SPOTS
MAY DROP TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR INLAND VALLEYS...WHILE
HOLDING AT AROUND 60 ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MAY SEE TYPICAL
LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEY LOCATIONS.
ON TUESDAY...HIGH PRES BUILDS E OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLC STATES. W-NW FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEWPTS MAINLY IN THE
LOWER- MID 50S...SO WILL BE COMFORTABLE ACROSS THE REGION. NOTING
LOW LEVEL MIXING UP TO 900 HPA THOUGH WIND SPEEDS ONLY RUNNING AT
10-15 KT. EXPECTING TEMPS TO RISE TO THE MID 70S WELL INLAND AND
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE LOWER 80S AT MANY INLAND LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRES SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY DRIFTS S THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ON WED WILL SHIFT TO S-SW THU AND FRI.
NOTING H925 WARM TEMP AXIS SURGING INTO THE REGION...WITH READINGS
UP TO +20C TO +22C BOTH THU AND FRI. DEWPTS WILL SLOWLY RISE TO
THE LOWER- MID 60S DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...SO WILL BECOME A BIT
STICKY OUT OF DOORS. TEMPS WILL TOP OFF IN THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY
FROM THE S COAST EACH DAY...BUT HOLDING IN THE MID-UPPER 70S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE S COAST.
MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING TIMEFRAME
IN THE NORMALLY PRONE INLAND VALLEYS AS WELL AS ALONG THE S COAST.
SATURDAY...
QUESTIONS ABOUND WITH TIMING AND TRACK OF H5 SHORT WAVE IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM FLOW AND HOW FAR S THIS WILL PUSH...ALONG WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH SUCH A STRONG SURFACE AND
UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE...MAY BE TOUGH TO MOVE INTO THE REGION
DURING SATURDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH SW WINDS IN PLACE.
HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO N CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS DURING SAT AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO
MODEL VARIANCE.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE
ON TIMING.
AREAS OF IFR-LIFR CIGS BUT MAINLY VFR VSBYS. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE
TO VFR ALONG S COAST BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING...MOVING INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. MVFR-IFR CIGS MAY LINGER ACROSS NE AND N
CENTRAL MA INTO THIS EVENING.
REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUING INTO
TONIGHT...THEN ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT MONDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE PATCHY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS.
EXTREMELY STRONG WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE BLOWING IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...RANGING FROM 65 KT AT 18000
FT TO 110 KT AT 30000 FT. HOWEVER...THIS INCREASE SHOULD BE
GRADUAL ENOUGH AT LOW LEVELS TO PRECLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. BUT
PILOTS SHOULD BE VERY AWARE OF THESE SPEEDS.
MONDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR WITH MARGINAL MVFR-VFR CIGS POSSIBLE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN SPOT SHOWER. GUSTY WEST WINDS UP TO 25 KT.
KBOS TERMINAL...OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES
WITH LOWER CIGS.
KBDL TERMINAL...OVERALL MODERATE CONFIDENCE DUE TO TIMING ISSUES
OF LOWER CIGS.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. MAY SEE LOCAL MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE AREAS ACROSS THE CT
VALLEY AND E SLOPES OF THE BERKSHIRES. W WINDS GUSTING TO 20 KT
EARLY ALONG E COAST THEN DIMINISHING.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR-IFR VSBYS IN PATCHY FOG LATE TUE AND WED
NIGHTS ACROSS PRONE INLAND LOCATIONS...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE BY
AROUND 12Z-13Z.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS END ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RETURN
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN AS A LOW PRESSURE
PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING...WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF NANTUCKET AND THE VINEYARD AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MA THIS EVENING. BEHIND THIS LOW PRESSURE...WINDS MAY
AGAIN INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FROM THE WEST
TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO 5 TO 7 FT
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT. WEST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WITH DRY WEATHER AND GOOD VSBY FOR MONDAY.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE WATERS INTO MONDAY. DESPITE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...THOUGHT IT WOULD BE LESS CONFUSING TO CONTINUE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS...AS ROUGH SEAS AND GUSTY WINDS
RETURN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT W WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT ON THE OUTER WATERS MONDAY
EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING. SEAS WILL LINGER AROUND 5-7 FT
EARLY...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE BUT MAY REMAIN AROUND 5 FT ON
THE FAR OUTER WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS REMAINING BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. MAY
SEE SW WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT DURING LATE THU/THU NIGHT ON THE
EASTERN WATERS. SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT MAY LINGER EARLY TUESDAY ON
THE OUTER WATERS...THEN WILL SUBSIDE.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
ANZ232>234.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT
MONDAY FOR ANZ235-237.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ250.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/EVT
NEAR TERM...BELK/EVT
SHORT TERM...BELK
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...BELK/EVT
MARINE...BELK/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
650 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS OVER GREAT LAKES REGION COMBINED
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS MAY RESULT IN A FEW LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS
OVER NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THIS MORNING...
OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT AS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MIDWEST. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IR IMAGERY INDICATES A LAKE EFFECT CLOUD BAND EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO NW INDIANA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOT 88D
DETECTING VERY WEAK REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SHIFTS
SLOWLY EAST. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHC OF RW- ACROSS OUR FAR NW
ZONES THIS MORNING AS LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTS TO SLOWLY BACK TO
NW. OTRWS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVG ACROSS THE AREA WILL PROVIDE
FAIR WX IN OUR AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AIR ALOFT
REMAINS COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY TODAY SO
CONSIDERABLE CU SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND CONT THROUGH THE
AFTN BEFORE DISSIPATING WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT DIURNAL HEATING SOMEWHAT... EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE M-U60S.
RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
AN INCREASING SWLY GRADIENT BUT THERE STILL SHOULD BE AT LEAST A
PERIOD OF DECOUPLING AND RATHER STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. MOSGUIDE SEEMED TO CAPTURE THIS WELL WITH LOWS
FCST IN THE M40S OVER MOST OF THE AREA... EXCEPT U40S/L50S FAR NW
WHERE SWLY GRADIENT WINDS WILL DVLP FIRST AND BE STRONGEST
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LAKE WARMING INFLUENCE.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE TIMING OF SHORT WAVE TROFS
AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLES...
ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM/ENSEMBLES SHOW A LARGE DIVERGENCE OF
SOLUTIONS HANDLING THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. THERE WAS ESSENTIALLY A SPLIT AMONG SOLUTIONS WITH
THE GFS AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVORING A FASTER SOLUTION
BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SATURDAY.
ON THE CONTRARY...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM AND SOME GEM ENSEMBLES
ALSO FAVOR A SLOWER SOLUTION WHICH MEANS FRIDAY WOULD BE VERY WARM
AND DRY WITH THE FRONT AND STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY. GIVEN THIS VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS...HAVE KEPT A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR NOW...KEPT FRIDAY WARM
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...BUT THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WHEN THE FRONT
WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER
RAPIDLY EARLY THIS WEEK AS RETURN FLOW INCREASES ON THE WEST SIDE OF
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
SHORE PARALLEL LAKE EFFECT CLOUD BAND MOVG SLOWLY E-SE
SHOULD MOVE ACROSS NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING. ONLY VERY WEAK ECHOES
CONT TO BE PICKED UP BY 88D WITHIN THE PLUME. 06Z NAM AND LATEST
RAP13 INDICATE NO -SHRA WILL OCCUR WITH THE CLOUD BAND THOUGH
LATEST HRRR STILL HAS SOME LIGHT QPF OVER NRN INDIANA THIS
MORNING. KEPT TAFS DRY WITH A VFR CIG THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD
PLUME MOVG ONSHORE AND DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT. RIDGE WILL PASS
THIS EVE ALLOWING WINDS TO BACK TO SWLY WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.
&&
.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...JT
VISIT US AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IWX (ALL LOWER CASE)
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSIWX
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSNORTHERNINDIANA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
717 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. TROF IS IMPRESSIVELY DEEP
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AT 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM MID SEPT AVG. MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL DOWN INTO THE
30S OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND FREEZING.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK
ABOUT THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING SW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES
RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL RAISE 850MB
TEMPS FROM 4C E AND 8C W AT 12Z TO 9C E AND 12C W BY EVENING. THIS
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD YIELD A BAND OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WILL SPREAD WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
COMPARED TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...TONIGHT WILL BE
MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE ACTIVE AND WARMER THAN
THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL START AS ZONAL AND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SWLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE WRN
CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE E. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHORTWAVES
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY EARLY TO
MID WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE THU INTO FRI AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL BE GREATER. FLOW NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE ZONAL WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CHARGE.
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MON INTO WED...WHICH IS BACKED UP BE LIMITED MODEL
QPF DURING THIS TIME. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
MON...GOING FROM 12-18C IN THE MORNING TO 15-20C IN THE EVENING.
THIS WARMER AIRMASS STICKS AROUND THROUGH THU. EXACT TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID-
UPPER 80S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM SW WINDS.
COULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE
IMPROVES SOMEWHAT AND OVERALL FORCING IMPROVES DUE TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVES MOVING NEARBY. STILL WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
SFC LOW TO MOVE NW-N OF THE CWA THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. PRECIP LOOKS MORE
CERTAIN ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FRONT FROM THE W. THE GFS IS AROUND 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THAT IS MINOR AT THAT TIME RANGE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 716 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
UNDER DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
SW WINDS TO 15-20KT THIS AFTN...AND THEN DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL
INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS.
ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ004>007-010>014-085.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
926 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
BLENDED IN CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING POSTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY...BRINING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WAA AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. BREEZY WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE VERY HIGH LEVEL MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT...WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...AND RELATIVELY
DRY FUELS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE LATEST SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ALSO INDICATE
AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW PASSES BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
WEST / SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TIMING OF THE WEAKER / MORE SUBTLE WAVES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IS DIFFICULT...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME AGREEMENT
THAT A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
THEIR THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WITH EVEN A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CATCHING A SMALL SLIVER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES IN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST H5 WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODEL BLEND PICKS UP ON THIS AND STILL
HAS LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BRINGS ACROSS A STRONGER
H5 WAVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SINCE TIMING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE CAN EASILY CHANGE.
INSTABILITY BECOMES VERY LIMITED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED
THUNDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A QUIET 12Z TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL DIMINISH AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 40
DEGREES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA INDICATE AMPLE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 15 TO 20 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS START TO DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DRIER WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS. THE LATEST FROM FIRE
OFFICIALS IS THAT THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO CURE AND WOULD CARRY
FIRE FAIRLY EASILY. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
651 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
BLENDED IN CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING POSTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY...BRINING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WAA AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. BREEZY WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE VERY HIGH LEVEL MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT...WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...AND RELATIVELY
DRY FUELS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE LATEST SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ALSO INDICATE
AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW PASSES BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
WEST / SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TIMING OF THE WEAKER / MORE SUBTLE WAVES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IS DIFFICULT...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME AGREEMENT
THAT A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
THEIR THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WITH EVEN A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CATCHING A SMALL SLIVER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES IN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST H5 WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODEL BLEND PICKS UP ON THIS AND STILL
HAS LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BRINGS ACROSS A STRONGER
H5 WAVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SINCE TIMING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE CAN EASILY CHANGE.
INSTABILITY BECOMES VERY LIMITED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED
THUNDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A QUIET 12Z TAF PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING / EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE
WEST TO SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL DIMINISH AGAIN THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 40
DEGREES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA INDICATE AMPLE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 15 TO 20 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS START TO DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DRIER WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS. THE LATEST FROM FIRE
OFFICIALS IS THAT THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO CURE AND WOULD CARRY
FIRE FAIRLY EASILY. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...CK
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
327 PM MST SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THE FIRST HALF OF THIS WEEK KEEPING STORM CHANCES GOING...MAINLY EAST
OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BY THURSDAY...DRIER AND STABLE AIR TAKES OVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BEFORE WARMING A
FEW DEGREES DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY/TONIGHT...
THE SHORT WAVE IS BEGINNING TO TRANSITION INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE
CLOUDINESS WITH IT HAS THINNED DOWN QUITE A BIT AS WELL. CONVECTION
HAS BEGUN OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS INCLUDING OUR FORECAST ZONE
24...SOUTHERN GILA AND FAR NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
CONVERSELY...THE CENTRAL DESERTS HAVE BEEN RUNNING COOLER DUE TO THE
EARLIER CLOUD COVER. DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOWER DESERT LOCATIONS DUE TO DAYTIME MIXING. TEMP/DEW POINT SPREADS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR EVAPORATIVELY ENHANCED DOWNDRAFTS AND IN TURN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD INITIATE NEW STORMS. HI-RES MODELS
INCLUDING HRRR AND AND U OF A WRF/S ARE DEPICTING THAT SCENARIO TO
VARYING DEGREES SUCH THAT STORMS FROM ZONE 24 AND AREAS OUTSIDE OF
OUR CWA SPAWN DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL DESERTS THIS
EVENING. MADE AN EARLIER ADJUSTMENT TO DECREASE THE AFTERNOON POPS
OVER THE PHOENIX AREA BUT INCREASE THE EVENING POPS. A CAVEAT IS THAT
MODEST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TENDS TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THERE IS SOME
DYNAMICAL ASSISTANCE TODAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE COINCIDING
WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK...MAINLY BENEFITING
NORTHERN ARIZONA.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
THE UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR THE S.F. BAY AREA WILL WEAKEN AND
GET KICKED EASTWARD BY A LARGER UPSTREAM TROUGH MONDAY. IT WILL COME
THROUGH OUR AREA LATER IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WITH A
DIVQ BULLSEYE. WHILE THE MODELS SHOW MOIST ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVERNIGHT...THEY ARE CONSERVATIVE WITH THE CAPE WHICH IS DUE AT LEAST
IN PART TO WARMING ALOFT. THE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT THE VORT
MAXW WILL LAG BEHIND THE BETTER MOISTURE BY THE TIME IT MOVES IN.
THUS POPS ARE SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE SOME VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO OPERATE IN
WHICH AIDS LONGEVITY. TUESDAY IS SOMETHING OF A REPEAT OF MONDAY IN
THAT THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS BUT IT WEAKENS EVEN
FASTER AND HAS LESS OF A LEFTOVER SHORT WAVE. THUS POPS ARE LOWER FOR
TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVES
INLAND WHICH HELPS ADVECT SOME MOISTURE FROM THE EAST PACIFIC.
HOWEVER...IT IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRY AIR. THE END RESULT IS THAT
THERE ARE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZONA. WITH TROUGHING PUSHING THE RIDGE TO THE EAST...TEMPERATURES
TREND DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...DUE TO
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC SHORTWAVES FLOWING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...
MODELS INSIST THAT A STABLE AND WARM AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHWR
ACTIVITY. AFTN TEMPS THESE DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING TS APPROACHING PHOENIX
TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN TS DIRECTLY HITTING ANY GIVEN AIRFIELD...IMPACTS FROM
SHIFTING STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...TIMING WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL OUTFLOWS INTERSECTING ACROSS
THE PHOENIX METRO. MODELS SUGGEST TS MOVING INTO THE PHOENIX AREA
AROUND 00Z...THOUGH HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF VCTS IN TAF PACKAGE BY
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 10K FT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OVER EAST CNTRL ARIZONA...AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SW CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA SPINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WEST WINDS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL...WITH A GENERAL
PREVAILING SOUTH SFC WIND AT KBLH. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THIS VALID TAF PERIOD MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY DECLINE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO A 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TENDENCY FOR A LIGHT
DRAINAGE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ/VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1150 AM MST SUN SEP 13 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION AND FIRE WEATHER...
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PAST OF
THE WEEK. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA INCLUDING
PHOENIX METRO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS AT LEAST ONE
OR TWO VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUD
MATERIAL IS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE IS
BEING PUSHED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE S.F. BAY AREA THIS MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING SHOW SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR MOISTENING IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
AT VEF AND FGZ WITH LESS INCREASE AT TWC AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE AT
PSR. NO SOUNDING AVAILABLE FROM 1Y7/8/9. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE HOWEVER
IS COOLING NEAR AND ABOVE 500 MB. SO IF PARCELS CAN REACH THE LFC
THERE WOULD BE MORE CAPE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORT WAVE AXIS
SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE
ADVECTED IN. SOMETHING THAT WOULD HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
CAPE IS DECLINING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS IS FORECAST BY
MULTIPLE MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE MOHAVE DESERT AND MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
NORTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS DEPICT VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AFFECTING OUR AREA...MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING OUR ZONE
24 AND GO ON TO INDICATE CONVECTION PROPAGATING TO THE LOWER
DESERTS THIS EVENING...LARGELY AGAINST THE STEERING FLOW. POPS OVER
PHOENIX AREA MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE PRIOR TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WITH VORTICITY AROUND THERE
COULD BE POP UP SHOWERS. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND
TEMPS BUT NO MAJOR SURGERY. MORE LATER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 245 AM...
TODAY AND MONDAY...
FORECASTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE TRICKY THESE DAYS AS SEVERAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION...OVER A WARM MOIST AIRMASS...AND
WITH A VERTICAL WIND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAINLY WESTERN AZ MONDAY.
AT 08Z A SMALL NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WAS SEEN MOVING ASHORE IN
CENTRAL AZ...AND FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AZ THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO AT 08Z...STARTING EARLY WERE A
FEW TSTMS ON RADAR NEAR BUCKEYE...GENERALLY IN FAR WEST PHOENIX WITH
TOPS TO 40 THSD FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS FOR MONDAY HAVE AMPLIFIED A SECOND MORE
ENERGETIC TROF TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PHOENIX TO BLYTHE CA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTS OF
MODERATELY STRONG 850/700 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROF
IN FAR WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH GOOD WIND VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
CHARACTERISTICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE IS
ONE CAVEAT THOUGH. MODELS FORECAST A PLUME OF WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ THAT COULD
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SPC IN THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2
(MONDAY)...HAVE NEARLY ALL OF AZ IN GENERAL TSTM POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE DUE TO THIS ENERGETIC TROF...AND CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL
SHWR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX.
TUESDAY...
NOT SURE ABOUT TUESDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AZ COULD RESULT IN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...DUE TO
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC SHORTWAVES FLOWING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...
MODELS INSIST THAT A STABLE AND WARM AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHWR
ACTIVITY. AFTN TEMPS THESE DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE EXISTS REGARDING TS APPROACHING PHOENIX
TERMINALS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUNDAY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS
LOWER IN TS DIRECTLY HITTING ANY GIVEN AIRFIELD...IMPACTS FROM
SHIFTING STRONGER OUTFLOW WINDS WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
HOWEVER...TIMING WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC
DUE TO A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL OUTFLOWS INTERSECTING ACROSS
THE PHOENIX METRO. MODELS SUGGEST TS MOVING INTO THE PHOENIX AREA
AROUND 00Z...THOUGH HAVE DELAYED ARRIVAL OF VCTS IN TAF PACKAGE BY
AN HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AOA 10K FT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...
MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT AVIATION IMPACTS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO WINDS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS TS ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN OVER EAST CNTRL ARIZONA...AND WEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS
OF FAR SW CALIFORNIA AND THE BAJA SPINE. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY
WEST WINDS AFTER SUNSET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KIPL...WITH A GENERAL
PREVAILING SOUTH SFC WIND AT KBLH. MUCH STRONGER WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AFTER THIS VALID TAF PERIOD MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL STEADILY DECLINE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF WETTING RAINFALL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH TEMPERATURES
NOT STRAYING TOO FAR FROM AVERAGE FOR MID SEPTEMBER...AFTERNOON
MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO A 15 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE.
OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
SOMEWHAT GUSTY FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A TENDENCY FOR A LIGHT
DRAINAGE COMPONENT OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...MO
FIRE WEATHER...MO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL PACIFIC WEATHER DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE DURING THE FIRST PAST OF
THE WEEK. A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL RETURN FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A BATCH OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF ARIZONA INCLUDING
PHOENIX METRO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE WHICH HAS AT LEAST ONE
OR TWO VORT MAXES EMBEDDED WITHIN IT. AT LEAST SOME OF THE CLOUD
MATERIAL IS DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE IS
BEING PUSHED SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED NEAR THE S.F. BAY AREA THIS MORNING. AREA SOUNDINGS THIS
MORNING SHOW SIGNIFICANT 24 HOUR MOISTENING IN THE 1000-700 MB LAYER
AT VEF AND FGZ WITH LESS INCREASE AT TWC AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE AT
PSR. NO SOUNDING AVAILABLE FROM 1Y7/8/9. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE HOWEVER
IS COOLING NEAR AND ABOVE 500 MB. SO IF PARCELS CAN REACH THE LFC
THERE WOULD BE MORE CAPE AVAILABLE. HOWEVER...AS THE SHORT WAVE AXIS
SHIFTS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...SOMEWHAT WARMER AIR ALOFT WILL BE
ADVECTED IN. SOMETHING THAT WOULD HAVE A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
CAPE IS DECLINING MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS IS FORECAST BY
MULTIPLE MODELS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE WILL BE TRAVERSING THE MOHAVE DESERT AND MOVING THROUGH MAINLY
NORTHERN ARIZONA. MODELS DEPICT VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER DIVERGENCE
AFFECTING OUR AREA...MAINLY SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...WITH THE BULK OF
IT TO OUR NORTH. LATEST RAP RUNS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF UPPER
DIVERGENCE OVER NORTHERN AND EAST-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING OUR ZONE
24 AND GO ON TO INDICATE CONVECTION PROPAGATING TO THE LOWER
DESERTS THIS EVENING...LARGELY AGAINST THE STEERING FLOW. POPS OVER
PHOENIX AREA MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE PRIOR TO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING DUE TO CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER...WITH VORTICITY AROUND THERE
COULD BE POP UP SHOWERS. MAY NEED TO MAKE SOME TWEAKS TO POPS AND
TEMPS BUT NO MAJOR SURGERY. MORE LATER.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ISSUED 245 AM...
TODAY AND MONDAY...
FORECASTS WILL BECOME A LITTLE TRICKY THESE DAYS AS SEVERAL PACIFIC
SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO THE REGION...OVER A WARM MOIST AIRMASS...AND
WITH A VERTICAL WIND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT MAINLY WESTERN AZ MONDAY.
AT 08Z A SMALL NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WAS SEEN MOVING ASHORE IN
CENTRAL AZ...AND FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
AZ THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO AT 08Z...STARTING EARLY WERE A
FEW TSTMS ON RADAR NEAR BUCKEYE...GENERALLY IN FAR WEST PHOENIX WITH
TOPS TO 40 THSD FT. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
RECENT MODEL FORECASTS FOR MONDAY HAVE AMPLIFIED A SECOND MORE
ENERGETIC TROF TO MOVE INTO NORTHWEST AZ BY LATE AFTERNOON.
SIGNIFICANT DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
PHOENIX TO BLYTHE CA. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH FORECASTS OF
MODERATELY STRONG 850/700 20-30 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROF
IN FAR WESTERN ARIZONA...WITH GOOD WIND VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT
CHARACTERISTICALLY ASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THERE IS
ONE CAVEAT THOUGH. MODELS FORECAST A PLUME OF WARM MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES TO MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AZ THAT COULD
STABILIZE THE AIRMASS. SPC IN THEIR CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR DAY 2
(MONDAY)...HAVE NEARLY ALL OF AZ IN GENERAL TSTM POTENTIAL.
THEREFORE DUE TO THIS ENERGETIC TROF...AND CONCERNS ABOUT POTENTIAL
SHWR COVERAGE AND INTENSITY...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING PHOENIX.
TUESDAY...
NOT SURE ABOUT TUESDAY. VERY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER PACIFIC SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN AZ COULD RESULT IN SHOWER POTENTIAL IN SOUTH CENTRAL.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THEREFORE WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EASTWARD.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ALTHOUGH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...DUE TO
ADDITIONAL PACIFIC SHORTWAVES FLOWING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA...
MODELS INSIST THAT A STABLE AND WARM AIRMASS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SHWR
ACTIVITY. AFTN TEMPS THESE DAYS SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
WILL SEE BETTER SHOT AT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...MAINLY STARTING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS INCLUDING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND POTENTIALLY BLOWING DUST. HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING FOR
VCTS IN TAFS...BUT COULD HAPPEN AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER IF STORMS GET
GOING QUICKLY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WIND DIRECTIONS AND SPEEDS WILL
BECOME PROBLEMATIC LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO A DECENT
LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERAL OUTFLOWS AFFECTING THE PHOENIX AREA.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WILL SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND
A PREDOMINANT SOUTH TO WESTERLY DIRECTION. SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LESS THAN 20KTS.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL KEEP SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING
TUESDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MOISTURE
WILL DECLINE WEDNESDAY ONWARD FOR REMOVAL OF STORM CHANCES. WITH
DRIER AIR...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL DECLINE WITH MOST LOWER
ELEVATIONS DROPPING BELOW 20 PERCENT BY FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT RECOVERY
DECLINES AS WELL BUT REMAINS GOOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLOW WARMING TREND. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
LIGHT AND FAVOR SOUTHWEST AND WEST DIRECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOONS
AND EVENINGS.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ACCORDING TO STANDARD PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...AJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
325 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP TROF EXTENDING FROM
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. MID LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS...ONLY SCT MID-HIGH CLOUDS AND WAA IN SW FLOW HAVE ALLOWED
TEMPS TO REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR
SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S...WARMEST IN THE
DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL INTERIOR COLD SPOTS
WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
ALL 12Z MODELS INDICATE DRY CONDITIONS MONDAY UNDER RISING 5H RIDGE
HEIGHTS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS. THE GFS GENERATES PCPN OVER
THE WRN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM SHEARED OUT SHORTWAVE RIPPLING THRU
THE MID-UPR RIDGE AND ALONG/AHEAD OF ASSOC SFC TROUGH. LOOKING AT
THE GFS BUFR SNDGS AT KIWD IT/S HARD TO IMAGINE ANY PCPN BEING
SQUEEZED OUT OF SO DRY A SOUNDING PROFILE. ALSO...ALL THE POSITIVE
AREA (370 J/KG CAPE) IS ABOVE 650 MB AND THERE IS A 14C CAP AT 775
MB WITH OVER 250 J/KG CIN TO OVERCOME. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS AT
THIS POINT AND KEEP A DRY FCST ACROSS THE CWA.
WITH 16 TO 19C 8H TEMPS...EXPECT HIGH TEMPS REACHING NEAR 80F ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WRN HALF THE CWA WITH MID 80S POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
IN DOWNSLOPING SW FLOW GUSTING AT OR ABOVE 20 KT. INLAND TEMPS WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER (MID 70S) WITH SOME MODERATION IN SW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN. TEMPS NEAR THE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE WILL ONLY BE AROUND
70F.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
LATE SUMMER WARMTH IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR THU-FRI AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE STILL
HINTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
SW UPPER FLOW ALOFT. UPPER WAVES ARE LACKING FOR MOISTURE THOUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE INTERVALS OF MID CLOUDS 15-20 KFT
BUT IT STAYS VERY DRY BLO THAT CLOUD BASE. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WITH SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SUPPOSE
THERE COULD BE THICKER MID CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES. BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
WEST ESPECIALLY AS H85 JET VEERS SW AND BECOMES AIMED AT UPPER LAKES
WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. H85 JET AND CONVERGENCE WOULD
INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO TRIGGER THE SHRA/TSRA.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING THROUGH WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
WEAKER WAVES ON MON AND TUE. OVERALL...SEEMS THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE WEST
AND FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LK SUPERIOR.
LATER ON WED...SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK SLIM AS
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST...GREATEST MLCAPES TOWARD
1000J/KG REMAIN OVER NEB/IA INTO MN.
LATE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PROBABLY ENDS UP BEING THE MAIN STORY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE READINGS INTO THE 80S IN MID
SEPTEMBER AS RECORDS FOR 14-16 SEPT ARE STILL IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FOR THIS WEEK...BASED ON H85 TEMPS OF AT
LEAST 16 ON TUE AND 18-20C WED AND THU...SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE. NEED DEEPER MIXING TO
SEE THAT DEGREE OF WARMTH THOUGH AND ANY SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUDS WILL
DAMPEN THAT POTENTIAL. EVEN SO THOUGH...STEADY AND GUSTY AT TIMES S
TO SW WINDS IN TIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN TROUGH OVER PLAINS AND
RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN MINIMAL LAKE MODIFICATION AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE AND WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR
FM WEST ACROSS KEWEENAW TO NORTH CENTRAL TO SEE WARMEST TEMPS. EVEN
WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH DWPNTS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MOST HUMID DAY WOULD BE ON THU WITH DWPNTS INTO
THE 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONCERNING THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING OF FROPA THU/FRI BUT THAT IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR BEING THAT
FAR OUT. GFS IS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO A USUAL BIAS.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVEN ON THE GFS WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...GOING TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ITS FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALSO
SINCE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH FRONT STILL CLOSE BY...LIKE THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT OUT
AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. WILL TREND THAT
WAY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS IDEA WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEM-
NH IS A NOTEABLE SLOWER TREND AS 24 HR AGO BOTH OF THESE MODELS
SHOWED FRONT/QPF MAINLY EAST OF CWA FOR FRIDAY. MUCAPES 0-3KM 1000-
2000J/KG AND SW LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS
TSRA TOO. SHEAR IS STRONGEST THU NIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WHICH IS
PROBABLY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
REGION. PWATS OVER 1.50 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST GEM-NH SUGGESTS LINGERING SHRA ON SATURDAY...BUT EVEN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT SOLN POINTS TO MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY. KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS BUT REMOVED POPS IN THE AFTN. REST OF WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
UNDER DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
SW WINDS TO 15-20KT THIS AFTN AND DURING THE DAY ON MON...AND DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 324 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE W/NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30 KT S TO SW
WINDS. ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
NEXT PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR LATE TUE THRU WED WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
259 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. TROF IS IMPRESSIVELY DEEP
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AT 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM MID SEPT AVG. MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL DOWN INTO THE
30S OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND FREEZING.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK
ABOUT THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING SW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES
RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL RAISE 850MB
TEMPS FROM 4C E AND 8C W AT 12Z TO 9C E AND 12C W BY EVENING. THIS
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD YIELD A BAND OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WILL SPREAD WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
COMPARED TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...TONIGHT WILL BE
MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
LATE SUMMER WARMTH IN STORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. COOLER WEATHER
RETURNS BY NEXT WEEKEND. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN OCCUR THU-FRI AS COLD
FRONT WORKS ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK...THERE ARE STILL
HINTS OF WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH IN AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED
SW UPPER FLOW ALOFT. UPPER WAVES ARE LACKING FOR MOISTURE THOUGH.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE MAY BE INTERVALS OF MID CLOUDS 15-20 KFT
BUT IT STAYS VERY DRY BLO THAT CLOUD BASE. SINCE THE SOUNDINGS SHOW
LIFT IN THE MOIST LAYER WITH SOMEWHAT STEEPER LAPSE RATES...SUPPOSE
THERE COULD BE THICKER MID CLOUDS AND SOME SPRINKLES AT TIMES. BEST
CHANCE OF SHRA OR TSRA WOULD BE TUE NIGHT INTO WED MORNING OVER THE
WEST ESPECIALLY AS H85 JET VEERS SW AND BECOMES AIMED AT UPPER LAKES
WITH STRONGER MOISTURE ADVECTION. H85 JET AND CONVERGENCE WOULD
INTERACT WITH INSTABILITY ALOFT TO TRIGGER THE SHRA/TSRA.
ADDITIONALLY...MOST MODELS INDICATE H7-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
MOVING THROUGH WITH A STRONGER SHORTWAVE...AT LEAST COMPARED TO THE
WEAKER WAVES ON MON AND TUE. OVERALL...SEEMS THERE IS ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO KEEP SMALL POPS IN FOR TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE WEST
AND FARTHER TO THE EAST ALONG LK SUPERIOR AND OVER LK SUPERIOR.
LATER ON WED...SFC BASED INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA CHANCES LOOK SLIM AS
WITH SLOWER FRONTAL MOVEMENT TO THE EAST...GREATEST MLCAPES TOWARD
1000J/KG REMAIN OVER NEB/IA INTO MN.
LATE SUMMERTIME WARMTH PROBABLY ENDS UP BEING THE MAIN STORY FOR
MOST OF THE WEEK. NOT UNCOMMON TO SEE READINGS INTO THE 80S IN MID
SEPTEMBER AS RECORDS FOR 14-16 SEPT ARE STILL IN THE UPR 80S TO MID
90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. FOR THIS WEEK...BASED ON H85 TEMPS OF AT
LEAST 16 ON TUE AND 18-20C WED AND THU...SHOULD SEE READINGS WELL
INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN A FEW LOW 90S POSSIBLE. NEED DEEPER MIXING TO
SEE THAT DEGREE OF WARMTH THOUGH AND ANY SIGNIFICANT MID CLOUDS WILL
DAMPEN THAT POTENTIAL. EVEN SO THOUGH...STEADY AND GUSTY AT TIMES S
TO SW WINDS IN TIGHER PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN TROUGH OVER PLAINS AND
RIDGE OVER EASTERN CONUS RESULTS IN MINIMAL LAKE MODIFICATION AWAY
FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE AND WILL ALLOW DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LK SUPERIOR
FM WEST ACROSS KEWEENAW TO NORTH CENTRAL TO SEE WARMEST TEMPS. EVEN
WITH THE WARMER TEMPS...HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN IN CHECK WITH DWPNTS
MOSTLY IN THE 50S. MOST HUMID DAY WOULD BE ON THU WITH DWPNTS INTO
THE 60S JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CONCERNING THE MAIN RAIN CHANCES THIS WEEK...MODELS STILL DIFFER ON
TIMING OF FROPA THU/FRI BUT THAT IS PRETTY TYPICAL FOR BEING THAT
FAR OUT. GFS IS QUICKER THAN ECMWF...WHICH IS ALSO A USUAL BIAS.
GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN EVEN ON THE GFS WITH BROAD TROUGH
OVER WESTERN CONUS AND RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...GOING TO FAVOR
THE SLOWER ECMWF WITH ITS FROPA OCCURRING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ALSO
SINCE UPPER TROUGH IS JUST DIGGING INTO THE UPPER LAKES ON FRIDAY
WITH FRONT STILL CLOSE BY...LIKE THE ECMWF STALLING THE FRONT OUT
AND ALLOWING FOR BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN ON FRIDAY. WILL TREND THAT
WAY FOR THIS FORECAST. THIS IDEA WHICH IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE GEM-
NH IS A NOTEABLE SLOWER TREND AS 24 HR AGO BOTH OF THESE MODELS
SHOWED FRONT/QPF MAINLY EAST OF CWA FOR FRIDAY. MUCAPES 0-3KM 1000-
2000J/KG AND SW LOW-LEVEL JET INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUPPORTS
TSRA TOO. SHEAR IS STRONGEST THU NIGHT OVERNIGHT INTO FRI WHICH IS
PROBABLY WHEN STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD OCCUR SOMEWHERE OVER THE
REGION. PWATS OVER 1.50 INCHES WOULD ALSO SUPPORT HEAVY RAIN.
LATEST GEM-NH SUGGESTS LINGERING SHRA ON SATURDAY...BUT EVEN
EXTRAPOLATION OF THAT SOLN POINTS TO MOST OF THE DAY BEING DRY. KEPT
WITH CONSENSUS BUT REMOVED POPS IN THE AFTN. REST OF WEEKEND LOOKS
DRY BUT COOLER AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
TEMPS MAINLY WILL BE IN THE 60S. &&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
UNDER DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
SW WINDS TO 15-20KT THIS AFTN AND DURING THE DAY ON MON...AND DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS.
ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
132 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A TROF EXTENDING FROM THE
CNTRL GREAT LAKES S TO THE GULF COAST. TROF IS IMPRESSIVELY DEEP
OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE 500MB HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE AT 5
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BLO THE LONG TERM MID SEPT AVG. MID LEVEL RIDGE
FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO NRN ONTARIO IS SUPPORTING SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM TX NE ACROSS ERN UPPER MI. ASSOCIATED DRY AIR
MASS/CLEAR SKIES/CALM WIND HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO FALL DOWN INTO THE
30S OVER MUCH OF THE FCST AREA. TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS HAVE FALLEN
TO AROUND FREEZING.
WITH DRY AIR DOMINATING THE SHORT TERM...NOT A WHOLE LOT TO TALK
ABOUT THIS MORNING. DEVELOPING SW FLOW BTWN DEPARTING HIGH PRES
RIDGE AND LOW PRES TROF MOVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL RAISE 850MB
TEMPS FROM 4C E AND 8C W AT 12Z TO 9C E AND 12C W BY EVENING. THIS
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT SHOULD YIELD A BAND OF SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS
THAT WILL SPREAD WNW TO ESE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
TO REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
COMPARED TO CURRENT CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...TONIGHT WILL BE
MUCH WARMER. UNDER CLEAR SKIES...MIN TEMPS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE
50S...WARMEST IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE USUAL
INTERIOR COLD SPOTS WILL SLIP INTO THE UPPER 40S.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE COMING WORK WEEK WILL CERTAINLY BE MORE ACTIVE AND WARMER THAN
THIS WEEKEND. THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL START AS ZONAL AND FLOW WILL
BECOME MORE SWLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS TROUGHING DIGS INTO THE WRN
CONUS AND RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE E. MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES LOOK TO
THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH FRI AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. SHORTWAVES
WILL NOT HAVE A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...ESPECIALLY EARLY TO
MID WEEK. BETTER MOISTURE AND FORCING ARRIVE THU INTO FRI AS THE
UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE W...SO CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP WILL BE GREATER. FLOW NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS MORE ZONAL WITH SFC
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING CHARGE.
MOISTURE LOOKS TOO LIMITED FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY MON INTO WED...WHICH IS BACKED UP BE LIMITED MODEL
QPF DURING THIS TIME. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
MON...GOING FROM 12-18C IN THE MORNING TO 15-20C IN THE EVENING.
THIS WARMER AIRMASS STICKS AROUND THROUGH THU. EXACT TEMPS WILL
DEPEND ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WHICH WILL DEPEND ON SHORTWAVE
DETAILS...BUT GENERALLY SHOULD SEE HIGHS FROM THE MID 70S TO MID-
UPPER 80S...WARMEST IN DOWNSLOPING AREAS FROM SW WINDS.
COULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES LATE WED INTO WED NIGHT AS MOISTURE
IMPROVES SOMEWHAT AND OVERALL FORCING IMPROVES DUE TO STRONGER
SHORTWAVES MOVING NEARBY. STILL WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
END CHANCE POPS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY.
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A
SFC LOW TO MOVE NW-N OF THE CWA THU INTO THU NIGHT...BRINGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA LATE THU INTO EARLY FRI. PRECIP LOOKS MORE
CERTAIN ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THAT THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
FRONT FROM THE W. THE GFS IS AROUND 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THE
ECMWF...BUT THAT IS MINOR AT THAT TIME RANGE. WILL USE A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEKEND AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
UNDER DRY AIR MASS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. INCREASING PRES GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
SW WINDS TO 15-20KT THIS AFTN AND DURING THE DAY ON MON...AND DEVELOPING
NOCTURNAL INVERSION THIS EVENING WILL LEAD TO LLWS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT. &&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 426 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
IN GENERAL...FAIRLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE SHAPING UP FOR LAKE
SUPERIOR THRU THE MIDWEEK PERIOD AS PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS WILL FEATURE HIGH PRES OFF TO THE SE AND E WITH A LOW PRES TROF
TO THE NW. EXPECT PERIODS OF 15-25KT AND EVEN 20-30KT S TO SW WINDS.
ONE PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY THRU MONDAY MORNING
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE NEXT PERIOD
OF STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR TUE AFTN THRU WED WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS THIS TIME OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUES FOR THE SHORT TERM.
UPPER FLOW HAS BEEN FAIRLY ZONAL BUT BY MONDAY SHOULD BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WESTERN CONUS. FOR
TONIGHT...A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL HELP PUSH
THE SFC LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA EASTWARD...BRINGING
THE SFC TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EASTERN CWA. A FAIRLY DECENT COLD
FRONT SHOULD MOVE IN BEHIND THE SFC TROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING
TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY
MORNING. NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS KEEP THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE DRY. HOWEVER...THINK THAT A FEW MORE HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
WILL MOVE INTO AT LEAST PART OF THE CWA. THE SREF PROBABILITIES
SHOW THAT MANY MODELS ARE TRYING TO BREAK OUT SOME FOG ALONG THE
TROUGH AXIS IN OUR EAST CENTRAL COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE RAP AND
HRRR KEEP THE FOG OUT AND THINK THAT LIGHT WINDS WILL BE BRIEF
ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. WILL LEAVE ANY MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.
BY TOMORROW...THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOSTLY SOUTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH NEAR 70 IN THE
NORTH TO LOW 80S IN THE SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT...A SFC LOW WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE MT/ND BORDER. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND PICK UP...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT. THE GFS BREAKS OUT A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIP WITH THE
WARM AIR ADVECTION MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IS AN OUTLIER. EVEN THE
BLENDED SOLUTIONS HAVE VERY LITTLE PRECIP SO WILL KEEP IT MOSTLY
DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AND 60S WITH SOUTH WINDS
AND WARM AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ALL IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
ON SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LEAD SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL BE TUESDAY...WITH THE SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS DURING THE DAY AND PUSHING THE SFC
TROUGH INTO THE CWA. SOME PRETTY GOOD WARM AIR AND TEMPS WILL GET
INTO THE 80S AGAIN. THE NAM HAS A FAIRLY GOOD AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY WITH CAPE VALUES NEAR 2000 J/KG ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER
BULK SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 30 KTS. GFS IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
INSTABILITY. WILL GO WITH SOME 20-30 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH FOR ANY
SEVERE MENTION IN THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT. THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...ONLY TO COME BACK UP WEDNESDAY AS THE SFC LOW REDEVELOPS
TO OUR WEST. HAVE COOLER TEMPS IN THE NORTH ON WEDNESDAY BUT THE
SOUTH SHOULD STILL BE IN THE 80S...ALONG WITH SOME LOW POPS.
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WILL START OFF THE PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN INITIAL WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC LOW LOOK
TO EJECT OUT ON WED NIGHT INTO THU BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN. MOST
MODELS SHOW THU AFTERNOON DRY ON THE ND SIDE...BUT GUIDANCE IS
HANGING ONTO SOME LOW CHANCES FOR NOW. ANOTHER WAVE MAY AFFECT THE
FA THU NIGHT INTO FRI. AT THIS POINT GFS/CANADIAN ARE NOT SHOWING
MUCH PCPN WHILE THE ECMWF IS...SO AGAIN WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW
CHANCES. THEREAFTER FLOW TURNS A BIT MORE ZONAL WITH DRIER WEATHER
FOR SAT AND SUN. TEMPS LOOK A LITTLE COOLER FOR THU/FRI WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR PCPN THEN WARM UP TOWARD NORMAL BY SAT/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR SKY COVER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY S
TO SSW WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING. THEN THE CHALLENGE IS
TRYING TO TIME THE WIND SWITCH TO THE NORTH AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...GODON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1222 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHEAST MONTANA...ABOUT TO
PUSH INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE SO NO
SIGNIFICANT UPDATES FOR THE AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 922 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS SUNDAY
MORNING. NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT UPDATING THE
LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS. NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT RED
FLAG WARNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
BLENDED IN CURRENT CONDITIONS FOR THE UPDATE. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK...WITH A RED FLAG WARNING POSTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
A SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CANADA...WILL PROPAGATE
THROUGH NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER TODAY...BRINING A COLD FRONT
ALONG WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE LOW AND COLD FRONT...WAA AND
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. BREEZY WEST DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL FURTHER ENHANCE
MIXING AND DRYING OUT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE RAP AND HRRR
INDICATE VERY HIGH LEVEL MIXING BY THE AFTERNOON WITH A VERY DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER. BASED ON SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AROUND 15 PERCENT...WINDS AROUND 20 MPH...AND RELATIVELY
DRY FUELS...DECIDED TO UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG
WARNING. THE LATEST SPC FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL ALSO INDICATE
AN ENHANCED THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA. AS THE LOW PASSES BY THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET AND HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS. THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE
WEST / SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH WAVES RIPPLING THROUGH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. TIMING OF THE WEAKER / MORE SUBTLE WAVES EARLY IN THE
PERIOD IS DIFFICULT...BUT THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE SOME AGREEMENT
THAT A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN
THEIR THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY...WITH EVEN A MARGINAL RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CATCHING A SMALL SLIVER OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARDS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON TUESDAY IS NOT VERY HIGH WITH MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES IN CANADA. WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE HIGHER
CHANCES IN THE NORTHWEST.
THE STRONGEST H5 WAVE APPEARS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE MODEL BLEND PICKS UP ON THIS AND STILL
HAS LIKELY POPS ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INTERESTINGLY...THE 13.00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF ON
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND BRINGS ACROSS A STRONGER
H5 WAVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR NOW...WILL FOLLOW THE MODEL
CONSENSUS SINCE TIMING THIS FAR IN ADVANCE CAN EASILY CHANGE.
INSTABILITY BECOMES VERY LIMITED BY THURSDAY NIGHT...SO HAVE REMOVED
THUNDER FROM THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TRACK ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
EVENING. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER OVER
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH TONIGHT AND IS
EXPECTED TO COVER THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. THERE ARE
SOME BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS/NAM IN THE EXTENT OF LOWER CLOUD
COVER MONDAY MORNING. BUT AS OUR SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS EASTWARD
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. WILL NOT GO AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE NAM AT THIS TIME BUT WILL
BRING IN A SCATTERED LAYER OF MVFR CLOUDS WITH LOWER VFR CEILINGS
MONDAY MORNING. DO EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT/DISSIPATE LATE MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN SEP 13 2015
A COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE IN THE WARM
SECTOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFTING WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS AROUND 40
DEGREES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15 TO 20
PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE RAP/NAM/HRRR FORECAST SOUNDING
DATA INDICATE AMPLE MIXING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND 15 TO 20 MPH
WINDS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH MAXIMIZED DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN WINDS START TO DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT CONDITIONS COULD
POTENTIALLY BE DRIER WITH EVEN HIGHER WINDS. THE LATEST FROM FIRE
OFFICIALS IS THAT THE SOUTHWEST CONTINUES TO CURE AND WOULD CARRY
FIRE FAIRLY EASILY. THEREFORE...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...TWH
FIRE WEATHER...AJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
610 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ERIE. CURRENT RADAR SHOW SOME SHRA OVER EASTERN PARTS OF ERIE AND
CRAWFORD COUNTIES. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL LATE EVENING THEN
THIS AREA OF SHRA SHOULD START SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH STARTS TO MOVE AWAY FASTER. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCATTERED
SHOWERS THIS EVENING WITH POPS TAPERING DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE
ALONG THE SHORELINE BY MORNING.
THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOP A FEW LIGHT SHRA/SPRINKLES AROUND CLE BY LATE
EVENING WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS. WILL STAY WITH
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT AIRMASS IS TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO DEVELOP TO
THE POINT OF GETTING ANYTHING OF NOTE TO THE GROUND THAT FAR WEST.
ELSEWHERE THE DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THRU
SUNSET WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AFTER 00Z.
THE CLEARED SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALLOW INLAND TEMPS TO FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S WHILE THE LAKESHORE HOLDS UP IN A 50 TO 55
RANGE FROM CLEVELAND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS THE LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETS UP ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND LOTS OF SUN ON MONDAY
WILL BOOST HIGHS BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUING THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD AND COOL NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WEST OF MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE FRONT PUSHES EAST...DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REBOUND WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME EAST ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST. A MULTI LAKE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON
INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD ERIE AND THEN
DISSIPATE. SO WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ERIE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AND GO CLEAR. WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL AND SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM LORAIN COUNTY EAST
THROUGH 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY OVER THE WEST AND
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE ADVISORY IN THE EAST ON MONDAY. WINDS FINALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
356 PM EDT SUN SEP 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT.
THE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST COAST AND CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
WITH MOISTURE SPREADING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA ACROSS EASTERN LAKE
ERIE. THE KBUF RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON
UPSTREAM TO THE NORTH. THE HRRR AND NAM DNG ARE FAIRLY AGRESSIVE
WITH SHOWERS IN ERIE/CRAWFORD COUNTIES THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH
EXPECTING MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY. THE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE THIS EVENING AND THAT
WILL HELP TO ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SHORELINE. WILL CARRY
SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING WITH POPS TAPERING
DOWN TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE SHORELINE BY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE A DIURNALLY ENHANCED CU FIELD IS IN PLACE. THESE CLOUDS
WILL LARGELY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY FALL TO THE MID 40S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE
LAKESHORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER IS IN STORE AS THE LARGE AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SETS UP ALONG THE MID-
ATLANTIC. FAIRLY STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND LOTS OF SUN ON MONDAY
WILL BOOST HIGHS BY ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM TODAYS HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUING THIS WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
ALOFT. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH A
LARGE DIURNAL SPREAD AND COOL NIGHTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY WITH TIME AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND BECOMES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST AND DEEPEN WEST OF MAINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. ONCE FRONT PUSHES EAST...DRIER AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION FOR THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRENDS TOWARD ZONAL FLOW INTO
NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIODS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. ONCE FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
SOME WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER REBOUND WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY INTO SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CONDITIONS ARE GRADUALLY IMPROVING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS
TIME. SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME EAST ARE GRADUALLY DISSIPATING AS
DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING EAST. A MULTI LAKE BAND OF SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM LAKE HURON
INTO NORTHEAST OHIO WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TOWARD ERIE AND THEN
DISSIPATE. SO WILL MENTION A TEMPO FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AT ERIE. ELSEWHERE...EXPECTING CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE
OVERNIGHT AND GO CLEAR. WINDS DIMINISHING AS WELL AND SHIFTING TO
SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING FROM LORAIN COUNTY EAST
THROUGH 8 AM TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND
TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.
EXPECTING WINDS TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY OVER THE WEST AND
MAY NEED TO CONTINUE ADVISORY IN THE EAST ON MONDAY. WINDS FINALLY
GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WELL AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR OHZ010>012-
089.
PA...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR PAZ001.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ145>149.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KEC
NEAR TERM...KEC
SHORT TERM...KEC
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...LOMBARDY