Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/27/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
340 PM MST TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM
TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
OCCURRING ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATED CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE PAST
1-2 HOURS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP COOLING WAS ACROSS ERN
PIMA COUNTY AND SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY. BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE
TRENDS AS WELL AS SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS...POPS WERE CONFIGURED TO
DEPICT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS EVENING. THE HIGHEST
POPS ARE ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PIMA COUNTY...SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY
AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWEST POPS ARE ACROSS FAR SERN
SECTIONS. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS AREA-
WIDE LATE TONIGHT INTO WED MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED OVER ERN NEW MEXICO/TEXAS
PANHANDLE WED. THIS UPPER HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BECOME CENTERED
OVER SRN ARIZONA FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WED AFTERNOON/EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
THEN PREVAIL MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE REDUCED FRI AS THE UPPER HIGH
BECOMES POSITIONED OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY EAST
OF TUCSON FRI.
25/12Z GFS/ECMWF WERE THEN SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING SW-NE ORIENTED
UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO BE OVER SE ARIZONA SAT-TUE. HOWEVER...THESE
SOLUTIONS WERE SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST WITH PROJECTED AVAILABLE
MOISTURE VERSUS THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. PER COORD WITH NEIGHBORING
WFO/S...OPTED TO INCREASE THE INHERITED POPS SOMEWHAT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. THUS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD WILL PREVAIL SAT-TUE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.
A VERY GRADUAL DAILY WARMING TREND IS FORECAST TO OCCUR THRU SAT
FOLLOWED BY A MODEST COOLING TREND SUN-TUE.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 27/00Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING FOLLOWED
BY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL THEN PREVAIL WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY TO 40 KTS
WILL OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL THEN PRODUCE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR INTO SATURDAY WITH
ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
955 AM MST TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN OCCUR STARTING THURSDAY
AND ESPECIALLY BY THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. A WARMING TREND WILL ALSO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...WITH PERHAPS NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY CLOUDY
TO CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS SE ARIZONA AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTED A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FEATURE CENTERED IN NWRN
SONORA NW OF HERMOSILLO...AND ANOTHER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TWIST
NEAR GLOBE AZ. DEWPOINTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS VALID 16Z WERE IN THE
LOWER-MID 60S...AND 25/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE
WAS 1.73 INCHES. THE 25/12Z KTWC SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTED FAIRLY STOUT
GENERALLY SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.
25/12Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND SEVERAL HRRR SOLUTIONS WERE SIMILAR
WITH DEPICTING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO DEVELOP GENERALLY ACROSS SEVERAL
MOUNTAIN CHAINS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON BY AROUND 19Z. FAIRLY
QUICK NORTH-TO-NORTHWEST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD THEN OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON AS PER THESE SOLUTIONS.
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE THE INHERITED GRIDDED DATA POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON GENERALLY ABOUT 10-20 PERCENT BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS AS
WELL AS COORD WITH NEIGHBORING WFO/S. THUS...SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH SHOWERS/
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE FAIRLY FAST STORM MOTIONS SHOULD MITIGATE
THIS THREAT. A BRIEF STRONG WIND GUST OR SO MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS
THREAT ALSO APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY MINIMAL. HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE ABOUT 3-8 DEGS F COOLER VERSUS MON.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/18Z.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS -TSRA/-SHRA WILL OCCUR INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
MVFR CONDITIONS AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS MAINLY TO 40 KTS WILL OCCUR
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY RANGE FROM 8-12K FT AGL AND SURFACE WIND WILL BE MAINLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
THEN OCCUR THURSDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
MAINLY EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE DRYING TREND WILL
PRODUCE A WARMING TREND DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION /346 AM MST/...BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH SHOULD BE OVER
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH STILL
PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PW`S EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH TO THE EXTREME EAST AND 1.4-1.5 OVER CENTRAL
LOCATIONS AND 1.5-1.7 FOR THE WEST. SO...POPS AGAIN SCATTERED IN
NATURE FOR ALL BUT EXTREME WESTERN ZONES WHERE JUST ISOLATED. A
SIMILAR FORECAST FOR THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY THE HIGH RETROGRADES TO A POSITION NEARLY OVERHEAD AND
THIS CONTINUES ON SATURDAY. PW`S PROGGED TO BE 1.0 INCHES EAST...1.2
CENTRAL AND 1.4 WEST. THAT SAID...LOOKING AT MAINLY ISOLATED TO LOW
END MAINLY MOUNTAIN STORMS BOTH DAYS FROM TUCSON EASTWARD.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY HIGH BECOMES ORIENTED SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL BAJA ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM TROUGH
AND MODELS SHOWING A SLIGHT MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS PARTS OF ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO WITH AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY BY MONDAY...MAINLY EAST.
FOR TUCSON...HIGHS GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TODAY...
THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...HIGHS AROUND 4 TO 8 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE WARMEST DAYS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
FRANCIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PHOENIX AZ
1035 PM MST MON AUG 24 2015
.UPDATE...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION... A BIT OF A DOWN-DAY MONSOON-WISE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
ARIZO0NA SO FAR HIS EVENING WHEN COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. ALTHOUGH
THUNDERSTORMS DID DEVELOP AS FORECAST ACROSS THE RIM COUNTY AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THESE STORMS TRYING TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...DRIER AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE THAT WAS ADVECTED SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE LOWER DESERTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA HAS SO FAR KEPT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY QUITE
LIMITED ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY LIMITED
TO EXTREME NORTH AND NORTHWEST MARICOPA COUNTY. GIVEN THESE
TRENDS...HAVE DECIDED TO CUT BACK POPS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS.
AS FAR AS THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...HAVE DECIDED TO LEAVE OUR CURRENT ELEVATED POPS ALONE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST AZ LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...SINCE THE
LATEST HIGH-RES MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO SHOW DEBRIS CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM STORMS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING NORTHWARD AS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION...WITH THESE SAME MODELS SHOWING
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... PREDOMINANT MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A COMBINATION OF WEAK MCVS AND INVERTED TROUGHS
ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONE IN NRN MEXICO.
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS DEPICTED EROSION OF CAPPING ALOFT WITH MOIST
H5 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO -7C TO -8C YIELDING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPER THAN USUAL FOR THE MONSOON SEASON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SFC-
H7 MOISTURE LEVELS WERE SAMPLED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLES
DAYS (ONLY 10-11 G/KG) LEADING TO MLCAPES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER ONLY
AROUND 500 J/KG.
SEVERAL CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
PROPAGATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DEEP
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE DEEPER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MARCHING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM HIGH TERRAIN
STORM INITIATION POINTS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER HIGH
TERRAIN...LOWERING INSTABILITY AND HINDERING ORGANIZED STORM
FORMATION. STRONGER JET LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WAS LOCATED IN NRN
MEXICO...AND SHOULD BEGIN FORMULATING NORTHWARD BUT POSSIBLY NOT
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.
MORNING TRENDS IN THE HRRR AS WELL AS 12Z LOCAL WRF CORES SUGGESTED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING THROUGHOUT THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW
BRINGING DEEP OUTFLOWS AND LINEAR ASCENT TOWARDS THE PHOENIX METRO.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR TRENDS AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY
YIELD HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW FALLING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. SHOULD MORE BACKED WINDS UPSTREAM AT H7 AND
BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER BE ADVECTED WESTWARD...THAN MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...ANY
ACTIVITY AFFECTING CNTRL ARIZONA MAY BE MORE DELAYED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEARLY AREAWIDE...PEAKING TUESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM INVERTED TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
DIVERGENCE ROTATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES PUSHING BEHIND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH PWATS IN A 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE (NEARLY THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS MEAN). ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED POP
CHANCES...SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT LEAST DRAWING THEM BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
/104 FOR PHOENIX AND 106 FOR YUMA/. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY
BE COOLER FOR LOCALES AFFECTED BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-
COOLED OUTFLOWS...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE MAJORITY MODEL
OUTPUT SUPPORT SUB-100 DEGREE HIGHS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REPOSITIONING RIDGE CENTER. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
OLD MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ML AND UL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAKE UP SOUTHWESTERLY HEADINGS AGAIN...ONLY SLOWLY
THINNING AND DRAWING DOWN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...POP CHANCES START DECREASING MORE NOTABLY BEGINNING
THURSDAY.
AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES BACK TO OUR SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS/PWATS
CONTINUE TO THIN...AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM PROMPTING SFC
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WARMEST WESTERN DESERTS...INCLUDING EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND TACNA...COULD HIT THE 110F MARK BY FRIDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE LOCATIONS AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO AND GILA BEND...COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
THE 110F MARK BY THE WEEKEND. OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /1981-
2010/ THE AVERAGE LAST 110F DAY IN PHOENIX FALLS ON AUGUST 26TH
/SEPTEMBER 6TH FOR YUMA/. WE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH PAST THE AVERAGE
LAST DAY IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND WORK TO CINCH THE
TOP SPOT FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCALES TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
AFTER A COUPLE MORE HOURS OF LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AT KPHX AND
KSDL...DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MARICOPA
COUNTY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY FOR THE REST OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE
AGAIN ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH IS REFLECTED BY A WIND
SHIFT AND VCTS IN THE TAFS.
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
CLOUDS...AND A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE REMAINS OVER
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE NOW OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN AZ AND NORTHERN
MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY...WHICH IS REFLECTED IN VCSH IN THE TAFS. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE TS IN THE
TAFS...AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RELEGATE
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN-
DRIVEN AND CONSEQUENTLY AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX
DISCUSSION...PERCHA/MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
303 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
AN UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PALMER DVD AND WESTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ALSO DEVELOP OR MOVE
OVER THE SERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE
HRRR AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVR
THE SW MTNS THRU THE NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOW SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE ERN MTNS.
ON WED THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA BUT A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SWRN CO TO NORTH CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY TO
THE CONTDVD. THE MAIN THREAT ALONG THE CONTDVD WL BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVR THE BURN SCARS. OVR THE SERN PLAINS...DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WED
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AND HOT AGAIN.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
...REST OF THE PERIOD MAINLY HOT AND DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS...
ONLY REAL CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WED EVENING...WHEN ONGOING
STORMS OVER THE MTS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
ONE MINOR TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS...AND THIS MIGHT BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THAT TIME.
THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT REALLY CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.
SO WHILE IT STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRY WARM THU...THERE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS...AND AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THU EVENING IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRI...OR RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.
REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. A PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW...AND THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP. MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AT KPUB FOR EXAMPLE IS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOWER
90S DOMINATE THE TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THE MONSOON
WILL BE PRESENT BUT DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY ACTIVE. WILL SEE DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS OVER THE MTN AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW A PACNW TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL
LIFT OFF TO THE E-NE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN PLAINS...SO
THE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA LOOKS MINIMAL. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITE TONIGHT THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS IN THE VCNTY
OF KCOS AND KALS THIS EVENING...AND MAYBE IN THE VCNTY OF KALS WED
AFTERNOON.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1031 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOUD COVER AND A LIGHT BREEZE HAVE SLOWED TEMPERATURE FALLS THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST.
THEREFORE HAVE UPPED TONIGHT/S LOWS THERE BY A FEW DEGREES.
KTYX RADAR SHOWS LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS BRUSHING NORTHERN
HERKIMER COUNTY. HRRR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SO NO CHANGES TO FORECAST THIS AREA WHERE SCT/ISOD SHRA
ARE ALREADY IN THE FORECAST.
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD COVER TO FINISH OFF THE UPDATE THIS
EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CLEAR MOST IF NOT ALL THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOONTIME. A FEW ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WITH THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY PERSIST
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE EARLY PM. SUNSHINE WILL
MIX WITH CLOUDS...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
OF +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY
WHERE SOME U70S ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER PA AND NY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IT SHOULD BE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND GENERALLY 50-55F TO THE SOUTH...EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE BERKSHIRES...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF LATE AUGUST WX IS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH
SOME U40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WITH S/SW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE RIM OF THE OFFSHORE MID AND UPPER RIDGE. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RISE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH DEWPTS IN THE M5OS L60S. A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE OF SOME CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...A NICE START TO
THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY 80-85F IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LATEST 26/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE.
AS WE GO INTO THE WORK WEEK...OVERALL IT WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS IT SLOWLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING OVER THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO OUR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY
WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER
80S AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR FG/BR. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAWN AT KGFL
AND KPSF.
FOR THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
YIELD FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE AUGUST.
THE RH VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. THEY WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW BRINGING LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
741 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGE TO FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE WAS TO ENHANCE CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE AREA AS MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ALSO UPDATED TEMPS AND TDS TO BRING INTO ALIGNMENT WITH
CURRENT READINGS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES NOW.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SHOULD
KEEP ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN-SRN DACKS...THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NRN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CHC POPS
WERE KEPT IN OVER THE WRN DACKS. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATED A
FAVORABLE LAKE TRAJECTORY OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT FOR A BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. H850 TEMPS WILL LOWER TO +6C TO +8C AT H850
OVER THE WARM LAKE TEMPS OF +15C +20C ON THE ERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL STREAM
DOWNSTREAM...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WILL BE APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY BY DAY BREAK.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CLEAR MOST IF NOT ALL THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOONTIME. A FEW ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WITH THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY PERSIST
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE EARLY PM. SUNSHINE WILL
MIX WITH CLOUDS...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
OF +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY
WHERE SOME U70S ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER PA AND NY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IT SHOULD BE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND GENERALLY 50-55F TO THE SOUTH...EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE BERKSHIRES...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF LATE AUGUST WX IS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH
SOME U40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WITH S/SW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE RIM OF THE OFFSHORE MID AND UPPER RIDGE. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RISE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH DEWPTS IN THE M5OS L60S. A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE OF SOME CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...A NICE START TO
THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY 80-85F IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LATEST 26/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE.
AS WE GO INTO THE WORK WEEK...OVERALL IT WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS IT SLOWLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING OVER THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO OUR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY
WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER
80S AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR FG/BR. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAWN AT KGFL
AND KPSF.
FOR THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
YIELD FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE AUGUST.
THE RH VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. THEY WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW BRINGING LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
JUST S/SE OF JAMES BAY OVER SW QUEBEC. WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED ISOLD-WDLY SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS AND CLOSE
TO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. OTHER ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CONTINUE OVER WRN NY...NRN PA...AND SE ONTARIO DUE TO THE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH.
THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SHOULD
KEEP ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN-SRN DACKS...THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NRN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CHC POPS
WERE KEPT IN OVER THE WRN DACKS. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATED A
FAVORABLE LAKE TRAJECTORY OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT FOR A BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. H850 TEMPS WILL LOWER TO +6C TO +8C AT H850
OVER THE WARM LAKE TEMPS OF +15C +20C ON THE ERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL STREAM
DOWNSTREAM...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WILL BE APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY BY DAY BREAK.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CLEAR MOST IF NOT ALL THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOONTIME. A FEW ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WITH THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY PERSIST
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE EARLY PM. SUNSHINE WILL
MIX WITH CLOUDS...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
OF +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY
WHERE SOME U70S ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.
THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER PA AND NY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IT SHOULD BE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND GENERALLY 50-55F TO THE SOUTH...EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE BERKSHIRES...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF LATE AUGUST WX IS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH
SOME U40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WITH S/SW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE RIM OF THE OFFSHORE MID AND UPPER RIDGE. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RISE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH DEWPTS IN THE M5OS L60S. A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE OF SOME CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...A NICE START TO
THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY 80-85F IN THE VALLEYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LATEST 26/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE.
AS WE GO INTO THE WORK WEEK...OVERALL IT WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS IT SLOWLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING OVER THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO OUR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY
WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER
80S AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS. ANTICIPATE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS CROSSING AREA TONIGHT...EXPECT CLOUDS TO
PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF CLOUDS AND FAIRLY
DRY AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR FG/BR. HAVE
ALLOWED FOR SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS WE GET CLOSER TO DAWN AT KGFL
AND KPSF.
FOR THURSDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK... THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
YIELD FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE AUGUST.
THE RH VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. THEY WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
MORNING.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW BRINGING LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
358 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES WITHIN THE REGION THIS
EVENING...AND EXITS EAST OF THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A LOW ALONG
THE FRONT WILL HOVER NEAR NORTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT A
COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS ALSO PASS THROUGH DURING THURSDAY AND AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THIS EVENING. THE FRONT ONLY
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS NYC AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY BY MID
EVENING. THEN IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CT AND THE
REST OF LONG ISLAND GOING INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN...BUT WITH A TREND LOWER
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...LOWER THAN 50 PERCENT. THE DRIER
AIR AS CONVEYED BY THE LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS NYC AND LOCATIONS
NORTHWEST IS LOWERING THE INSTABILITY THERE AND DESPITE THE FRONT
BEING RIGHT NEAR THAT LOCATION...CONVECTION IS MINIMAL.
FARTHER EAST...THERE IS MORE INSTABILITY. RAP SOUNDINGS AT KISP
FOR INSTANCE...STILL SHOW A LITTLE MORE THAN 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
GOING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THE POPS OVERALL INCREASE FARTHER EAST...SO ISOLATED CONVECTION AT
MOST FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHWEST CT. THE POPS
WILL BE MORE SCATTERED FOR SOUTHEAST CT AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND
WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION THIS EVENING. DRIER AIR SHOULD TAKEOVER
BY LATE EVENING...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING
THEREAFTER.
A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING WITH LESS PVA IS PROVING TO KEEP
CONVECTION AT A LOWER COVERAGE AND THIS MAY VERY WELL CONTINUE
GOING INTO THE EVENING.
THE LOWS OVERNIGHT WERE A BLEND OF MET AND ECS...WHICH SHOWED VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT. THESE VALUES WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 60S WITHIN NYC.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AT ATLANTIC
OCEAN BEACHES INTO THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THERE IS LITTLE PROGRESSION IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY. THE
FRONT WEAKENING EAST OF THE REGION WILL HAVE A WEAK LOW HOVERING
ALONG IT IN NORTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW EVENTUALLY WILL
BECOME WASHED OUT AND MORE A PART OF THE MEAN FLOW. THE RELATIVE
MORE PROMINENT FEATURE WILL BE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING IN
FROM THE WEST.
THE HIGH TO THE WEST WILL GIVE THE REGION A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
THROUGH THE DAY. SEA BREEZES SHOULD STAY CLOSE TO SOUTH COASTAL
LOCATIONS WITHOUT MUCH NORTHWARD PROGRESS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE
REMARKABLY LOWER...IN THE MID 50S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL TREND A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. THIS WILL BE DUE TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION AS WINDS BACK FROM THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL HAVE STRONGER EFFECTS FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN. THE SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
WITH LIGHT WINDS...RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES
BEING A FEW DEGREES LOWER AS WELL COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT SURFACE FEATURE ON THURSDAY...BUT
A WEAK TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN ZONES AS A TROUGH AXIS
ALOFT SHIFTS THROUGH. LOOKS LIKE ONLY DIURNAL CU RESULTS GIVEN THE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND PROBABLY MORE COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN
ZONES VERSUS THE SOUTHERN. MAV/NAM MOS BLEND SEEMED CONSISTENT WITH
MIXING DOWN FROM 850MB FOR HIGH TEMPS.
DRIER AIR SHIFTS IN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST AND DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO
THOSE ON THURSDAY...NEAR NORMAL.
SLIGHT RIDING ALOFT CONTINUES ON SATURDAY BEFORE FLATTENING FOR
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS OFFSHORE...AND
MODELS SEEM TO NOW AGREE THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH SHIFTS
THROUGH SOMETIME SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO
BE THE OUTLIER IN BEING AGGRESSIVE WITH RETURN-FLOW MOISTURE AND
APPARENT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK BOTH DAYS. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE TO
KEEP A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH POPS MIGHT
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IN THE GRIDS SUNDAY AFTN/NIGHT. HIGH TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE ON MONDAY...AND WITH MODELS AGREEING
ON RIDING ALOFT...WILL REMOVE SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. RIDGING CONTINUES ALOFT ON TUESDAY...AND FOR NOW IT APPEARS
THAT IT REMAINS DRY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR ANY CHANGES IN
MOISTURE SURGE AND CONVECTIVE TRIGGERS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS DURING THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO AT KISP WHERE MVFR CIG HAS DEVELOPED. THIS SHOULD
IMPROVE BACK TO VFR IN THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.
OTHER THAN AT KSWF...WINDS WILL BE S-SE 10 TO 15 KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. FROPA PASSAGE THIS EVENING
WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE W AND NW WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING SPEEDS
OVERNIGHT.
AN ISO SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THIS EVENING...MAINLY EAST
OF NYC METRO TERMINALS.
W-NW WINDS 5-10 KT WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FROPA COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 TO 3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FROPA COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 TO 3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE
THROUGH 22Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FROPA COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 TO 3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FROPA COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 TO 3 HOURS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH 22Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FROPA COULD BE
OFF BY +/- 2 TO 3 HOURS.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TEMPO MVFR CIG COULD LAST AN HOUR LONGER THAN
FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT WITH COLD FROPA COULD BE OFF BY +/-
2 TO 3 HOURS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR. MORNING W/NW FLOW
GIVING WAY TO AFTERNOON W/SW FLOW AND COASTAL SEA BREEZES.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP BELOW SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GUSTS UP TO 20 KT WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BE
MINIMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT SUB SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER THE WATERS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL AVERAGE
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH THIS EVENING. MINOR URBAN
OR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT BUT THE SPEED
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...THIS IS LOOKING TO BE OF CONTINUING
LOWERING POSSIBILITY.
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JC/JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JC/JM
HYDROLOGY...JC/JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
808 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE MOHAWK VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST TODAY ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA...RESULTING IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE MID LEVEL WEATHER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NORTHERN
QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL USHER COOLER LESS HUMID AIR
INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS SCATTERED MAINLY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO WEEKS END HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION WITH
MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 808 AM EDT...AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
FROM BERKSHIRE COUNTY MA NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN VERMONT. KPSF
REPORTED 0.41 INCHES OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR...AND SOME AREAS MAY HAVE
SEEN AN INCH IN AN HOUR BASED ON RADAR ESTIMATES. RADAR IS
ESTIMATING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN SO FAR IN SOME LOCATIONS SO
HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AREAS WITH HEAVY RAIN FOR MINOR
FLOODING.
LOOKING AT CURRENT DEWPOINTS...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS MADE
PROGRESS THROUGH BURLINGTON VERMONT...ROME NEW YORK AND MAYBE AS
FAR EAST AS BINGHAMTON NY. 850 FRONT LOOKS TO LIE ALONG SIMILAR
LINE BASED ON CURRENT RAP ANALYSIS. ANYWHERE EAST OF THAT LINE
HAS A SHOT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY DUE TO SUNS HEATING
A MODERATELY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FROM COLD FRONT.
FURTHER WEST...DRIER AIR SHOULD KEEP THESE AREAS DRY FROM THE MOHAWK VALLEY
NORTH AND WEST.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 50S BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT IN
OUR WESTERN AREAS TO LOW 70S FAR SOUTHEAST...OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.
A 70 KNOT JET STREAK SW TO NE OVER CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS MORNING
MOVES TO LONG ISLAND BY 22Z TUESDAY LOOKS TO PLACE EASTERN PART OF
OUR FORECAST AREA IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SOME UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE. LOCAL MODELS STILL SHOW SOME CONVECTION INITIATION BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WHERE THE BEST SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORM LIFT WILL BE. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
MARGINAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER AND MID 70S
NORTH AND WEST OF THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION TO UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION POINTS SOUTH AND EAST.
FOR TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK INTO THE REGION.
STILL HAVE SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO EARLY EVENING TO
THE EAST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY...BUT THEN IT LOOKS DRY EVERYWHERE
LATER TONIGHT WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. TEMPERATURES WILL
DIP BACK INTO THE 50S EVERYWHERE. THERE MIGHT BE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
BUT A BREEZE MIGHT BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THAT UNLESS THOSE AREAS
RECEIVE A FAIR AMOUNT OF RAINFALL TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SUITE (GEM/GFS/ECMWF/NAM) IS LARGELY IN AGREEMENT OVER FLA
DURING THIS PERIOD. 500HPA CUT OFF OPENS INTO A PROGRESSIVE TROF
TO OUR NORTH NR JAMES BAY WED...AND DRAGS THE TROF AXIS ACROSS
THE RAN WED INTO THU. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE
OF THIS TROF OVER THE GRTLKS...AND SURGES EAST INTO NY/NEW ENG
LATE THU INTO FRI.
MUCH OF WED FLA IS IN DRY SLOT ON SE QUADRANT OF CUTOFF SYSTEM...FR
DIURNAL HEATING...COOLING ALOFT PARTICULARLY N & W OF ALB ALONG
WITH ELEVATED TURN WILL RESULT IN SCT AFTN -SHRA WED OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS...AND ISOLD -SHRA N & W OF ALBANY THU AS THE TROF
MOVES THROUGH. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SCT-BKN CU WILL BE THE RULE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH GENERALLY SCT CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
OTHERWISE A MOSTLY FAIR PERIOD WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY AND TEMPS
TRENDING NR TO SLIGHTLY LO NORMALS.
THU NT INTO FRI WILL SEE RISING 500 HPA GUTS AND BUILDING SFC
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE. SKIES WILL CLEAR THU ENG...AND WITH
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE FRI WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LOW HUMIDITY
AND UMPS NR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON THE BIG PICTURE...OF RISING 500HPA
GUTS AS LARGE 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE EASTERN
SEABOARD...WHOSE CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY.
WPC/ECMWF/GEM ARE PRETTY MUCH DRY ACROSS THE FLA THRU THIS PERIOD...THE
GFS HAS A SHEARING SHORT WV ME ACROSS THE NE WITH A SUGGESTION OF
SCT CONVECTION SAT AND SUN AS WELL AS MORE CLOUDS. NUMEROUS GFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PRODUCE THE BULK OF THIS QPF SAT NT. SO THERES
BEEN SOME SIGNAL ABOUT THIS SHORT WV FOR SEVERAL RUNS...ALTHOUGH
PLACEMENT AND RESPONSE HAS VARIED...ITS WORTH MENTIONING CHC OF
AFTN ENG TSTM SAT WHERE THE SIGNAL IS STRONGEST. ODOR IT WILL BE A
DRY WARM LATE SUMMER PERIOD WITH TEMPS RUNNING 3-5 DEG ABS
NORMALS...WITH A CONTINUED SIGNAL FM THE MODELS SUITE AND 8-14 DAY
OUTLOOKS FOR BUILDING WARMTH INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER.
DUE TO ASOS PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE WITH AID NOT ASKED AT KGFL.
LOOK FOR BRIEF TIMES OF MVFR AND EVEN IFR...ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KPSF
THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
WITH THE LOWER CLOUDS DISSIPATING BY 14Z OR SO. WE WILL BE LEFT WITH SCT-BKN
CU BASES WELL OVER 3000 FEET. HOWEVER...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH
THROUGH SUNSET AS THERE IS A CHANCE MORE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT FROM HUDSON VALLEY EAST. ANY OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE AGAIN EAST OF THE HUDSON
VALLEY.
THE WIND WILL BECOME WESTERLY WITH TIME TODAY...5-10 MPH.
TONIGHT...WILL BE DRY WITH A CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. SOME FOG MIGHT DEVELOP
IN THE USUAL SPOTS...MAINLY KGFL AND KPSF. FOR NOW...WILL INCLUDE SOME IFR FOG
IN THOSE PLACES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE HUDSON VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EAST REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST OVERNIGHT...RESULTING
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A LARGE MID LEVEL
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL USHER COOLER LESS
HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS WELL AS
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO WEEKS END HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION WITH MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPERATURES.
RH VALUES WILL BE FROM 80 TO NEAR 100 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AND FROM 50 TO 60 THIS AFTERNOON AND 45 TO 55 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY AND TONIGHT
BECOMING WEST AROUND 10 MPH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. OTHER THAN SOME SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE ADIRONDACKS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IT WILL BE MAINLY DRY. THE ENTIRE REGION WILL RECEIVE UNDER A HALF
AN INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...SND/HWJIV
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...SND/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
658 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS IT STALLS IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SNE
TODAY ***
700 AM UPDATE...
COLD FRONT IS STILL SITUATED WELL OUT BY BGM THIS MORNING AND WILL
SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. OTHERWISE A BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE BERKSHIRES AND WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE. CAPE VALUES HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CT VALLEY AND WITH K VALUES WELL ABOVE 34 ANTICIPATE
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...IE BACK BUILD FROM CURRENT
CONVECTION. IN FACT THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS PRECIP GOING ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH PWATS
ARE AROUND 1.5 INCHES...IF THESE STORMS BACKBUILD...COULD SEE
FLOODING ISSUES. CURRENTLY THE STORMS ACROSS FRANKLIN AND
HAMPSHIRE COUNTY IS SHOWING OVER 2 INCHES HAS FALLEN WITHIN AN
HOUR! INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
SO ANTICIPATE STRONG TO SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER TO 10-11 AM
AND LAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW S OF JAMES BAY WITH MEAN TROF ACROSS GT
LAKES AND SW CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NEW ENG. SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO STALL INVOF HUDSON VALLEY AS IT IS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.
MODELS SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AFTER 12Z WITH
CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT SO EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. 0-1KM HELICITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OF CLOSED LOW OVER SE CANADA FITS CLIMATOLOGY OF
WEAK SNE TORNADOES SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD BRIEF SPINUP. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS W MA
AND N CT THEN MOVING E INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WE CANT RULE OUT
A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF BOS-PVD CORRIDOR TODAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS THE EXTENT OF A POSSIBLE SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN W NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBLE LATE DAY
CONVECTION. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID DAY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SNE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS E NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT. A FEW EVENING STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND
RAPIDLY DECREASING KI WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY WITH ANY CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEING CONFINED TO E NEW ENG IN HIGHER KI AXIS.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S W MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WED THROUGH SAT
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE.
DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BULK OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING AND
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MASS DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND BEHIND IT COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TURN FROM TROUGH TO ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF EACH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT A STRETCHED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS/INCREASING HUMIDITY
THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE WORK-WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 13/14Z. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR EXPECTED IN THE MORNING W MA AND N CT...WITH A SECOND
ROUND OF ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER ACROSS E NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...S WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS BELOW SCA. LOCALLY POOR
VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SE WATERS THIS
MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT S WINDS WITH SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN
PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT OR SUN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
327 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
AS IT STALLS IN EASTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT CROSSES SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY. MAINLY DRY AND
SEASONABLE WEATHER WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HUMIDITY AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
*** A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SNE
TODAY ***
THROUGH 12Z...AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS MOVING INTO W MA
EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY IS ELEVATED AND HRRR INDICATES A
WEAKENING TREND THROUGH DAYBREAK. MEANWHILE...A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING S OF THE COAST ASSOCD WITH MODEST SB INSTABILITY WITH
STRONGER CONVECTION WELL S OF THE ISLANDS AND MOVING NE. THIS
ACTIVITY MAY CLIP OUTER CAPE AND ACK BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT HRRR
SUGGESTS BULK OF THIS CONVECTION WILL SLIDE JUST TO THE E.
TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW S OF JAMES BAY WITH MEAN TROF ACROSS GT
LAKES AND SW CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS NEW ENG. SFC COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO STALL INVOF HUDSON VALLEY AS IT IS PARALLEL TO UPPER FLOW. MAIN
CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS.
MODELS SHOW A RAPID INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AFTER 12Z WITH
CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG DEVELOPING...FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
0-6KM SHEAR INCREASES TO 35-40 KT SO EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE TSTMS TO DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
WEATHER AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF
SHEAR/INSTABILITY. 0-1KM HELICITY IS NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN OF CLOSED LOW OVER SE CANADA FITS CLIMATOLOGY OF
WEAK SNE TORNADOES SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD BRIEF SPINUP. HI-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWS ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE MORNING ACROSS W MA
AND N CT THEN MOVING E INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE WE CANT RULE OUT
A SHOWER OR TSTM IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...IT APPEARS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN WEST OF BOS-PVD CORRIDOR TODAY. THE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE AFTERNOON IS THE EXTENT OF A POSSIBLE SECOND
ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN W NEW ENG AS MID LEVEL DRYING
WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND THIS COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOWER CONFIDENCE ON POSSIBLE LATE DAY
CONVECTION. IT WILL BE A RATHER HUMID DAY WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SNE TONIGHT. MODELS SHOW
INSTABILITY PERSISTING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVENTUALLY BECOMING
FOCUSED ACROSS E NEW ENG LATE TONIGHT. A FEW EVENING STORMS
POSSIBLE...BUT MID LEVEL DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST AND
RAPIDLY DECREASING KI WILL SUPPRESS ACTIVITY WITH ANY CONVECTION
AFTER MIDNIGHT BEING CONFINED TO E NEW ENG IN HIGHER KI AXIS.
PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXPECTED. MIN TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 60S...WITH
SOME UPPER 50S W MA.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WED THROUGH SAT
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW...
00Z GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
THERE ARE SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES BUT THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT THE OVERALL TREND IN
THE FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION UNTIL SUNDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. A WEAK WAVE ON SUNDAY MAY BRING A FEW
SHOWERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RIGHT BEHIND THIS WAVE.
DAILIES...
WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
BULK OF THE PRECIP TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...BECAUSE THIS FRONT IS SLOW MOVING AND
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...COULD SEE LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN MASS DURING THE DAY. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND BEHIND IT COMFORTABLE TEMPS AND HUMIDITY.
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TURN FROM TROUGH TO ZONAL AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL KEEP NEAR NORMAL
TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND BEYOND...LOW CONFIDENCE.
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE DURING THIS PERIOD AS THERE ARE SOME
UNCERTAINTIES ON THE STRENGTHS OF EACH SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
FLOW. FOR NOW APPEARS THAT A STRETCHED SHORTWAVE WILL PASS SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...AND COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS/INCREASING HUMIDITY
THIS COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO TREND ABOVE AVERAGE STARTING ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
ARE HINTING AT UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S FOR THE WORK-WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS NEAR THE S COAST WITH
VFR MIXED WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS FURTHER INLAND. FOG NOT
PREVALENT AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH COAST. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO W
MA AND NW CT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN THE
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING W MA AND N CT...WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER ACROSS E NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK SEA
BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
TODAY...S WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT WITH SEAS BELOW SCA. LOCALLY POOR
VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS SE WATERS THIS
MORNING.
TONIGHT...LIGHT S WINDS WITH SEAS BELOW SCA. VSBYS REDUCED IN
PATCHY FOG.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO BUILDING
HIGH PRES. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING TO THE S BY
SAT OR SUN.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KJC/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...KJC
LONG TERM...DUNTEN
AVIATION...KJC/DUNTEN
MARINE...KJC/DUNTEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
158 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND CROSSES NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS FOLLOWS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
150 AM UPDATE...
A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS MOVING NE INTO W MA AND HRRR BRINGS
SOME CONVECTION INTO THE CT VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE...AREA OF SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTMS WELL S OF THE ISLANDS
ASSOCD WITH HIGHER THETA-E AIR LIFTING NE AND MAY CLIP THE OUTER
CAPE AND ISLANDS BEFORE DAYBREAK. UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR AND HI-RES GUIDANCE TRENDS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS CONFINED TO THE WEST OF NEW ENG FROM E
NY TO NE PA. ACTIVITY IS NOT MAKING MUCH PROGRESS EAST AS IT
TRACKS SLOWLY NE. HRRR AND HIRES ARW BRING SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION INTO FAR W NEW ENG VERY LATE TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WATCHING AREA OF SHOWERS WELL TO THE S ASSOCD WITH
HIGHER THETA-E AIR AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY. MODELS BRING
THIS NWD ACROSS CAPE/ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT SO CANT RULE AN ISOLD
SHOWER HERE OVERNIGHT AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MAINLY DRY OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE OFFSHORE TO THE S.
MODELS BRING UP TO 1000 J/KG ACROSS SE NEW ENG TOWARD 12Z SO WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE S COAST BUT THERE
IS NO FORCING MECHANISM.
STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE S COAST AND WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW MAY SEE THIS ADVECT FURTHER NWD ACROSS SNE. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE AS WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE S COAST. A WARM AND HUMID
NIGHT WITH MINS UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH SIMILAR DEWPOINTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVES TO EASTERN CANADA WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE EASTERN USA. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST IN/NEAR THE HUDSON
VALLEY AND ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE UPPER FLOW. THE GFS IS A LITTLE
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE ECMWF BUT BOTH HOLD THE FRONT EITHER
SIDE OF THE NEW ENGLAND BORDER TUESDAY EVENING. BOTH MODELS THEN
SWEEP THE FRONT EAST ACROSS NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT. STABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION WITH TOTALS MID TO UPPER
40S/LI AROUND ZERO/SBCAPE 1000-3000 J/KG. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ALSO
PICK UP WITH SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 40 KNOTS AT 500
MB. THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR CONVECTION WOULD BE
WESTERN/CENTRAL MASS AND POSSIBLY PARTS OF NORTHERN CT. THE BEST
MODE OF DAMAGING WEATHER WOULD BE STRONG WIND GUSTS.
WILL THERE BE A MORNING ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS? BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE INCREASED SBCAPE OVER RI AND SOUTHEAST MASS AT
12Z. COULD BE A QUICK MORNING BURST. MAIN EVENT SHOULD BE FARTHER
WEST IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. COLD FRONT THEN SLIPS THROUGH
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS/TSTMS ENDING...AND DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
TEMPS AT 900 MB ARE EQUIV TO 13C AT 850 MB...MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S EXCEPT COOLER ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER
HILLS. MIN SFC TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 60S IN THE EAST BUT WILL
REACH THE UPPER 50S IN WESTERN MASS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* MAINLY DRY/SEASONABLE WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY WED THROUGH SAT
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND HUMIDITY LOOKS TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
24.12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING LITTLE DIFFERENCE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE LONG TERM. AT THE VERY LEAST ANY DIFFERENCES ARE MINIMAL
ENOUGH SO AS NOT TO IMPACT THE FORECAST SIGNIFICANTLY. AT THE VERY
LEAST...THE PATTERN SHIFT WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR NOW FOR ALMOST
A WEEK IS AT HAND. UPPER LVL CUTOFF MOVES INTO QUEBEC/LABRADOR
ALTHOUGH WITH A SLIGHT REMNANT OF THE ATTENDANT TROF ACROSS THE NE
CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL
FINALLY DEFINE MUCH OF THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CONUS...WITH DRIER
CP AIRMASS DRAW INTO NEW ENGLAND. NOTING A SLIGHT SLACKENING OF
THE MASS FIELDS TO THE S BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...WHICH COULD
SHIFT THE FLOW PATTERN INCREASING TEMPS/DWPTS AND A RISK FOR SCT
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE AGREEMENT...A BLEND OF OPERATIONAL
GUIDANCE WILL BE USED.
DETAILS...
WED...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF WEAK CYCLOGENESIS
IN THE GULF OF MAINE ALONG THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. COMBINE
THIS WITH STRONG CYCLONIC/COLD UPPER FLOW WITH THE UPPER LVL
CUTOFF MAKING IT/S CLOSEST PASS...AND WILL LIKELY SEE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF DIURNAL AND LEFTOVER CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. A SPOT SHOWER CAN/T BE
RULED OUT AS BUFKIT DATA SUPPORTS A WEAK UNSTABLE LATER NEAR THE
TOP OF THE BL WHICH COULD BE JUST ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT WHAT
LITTLE MOISTURE IS THERE. IN SPITE OF THE -10 TO -11C H5
TEMPERATURES...FEEL RISK FOR SMALL HAIL IS LOW IN SPITE OF THE
GOOD SETUP AS THERE IS A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED WARM LAYER BETWEEN H8
AND H6. H85 TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 12 AND 14C SHOULD BE REALIZED AT
LEAST...SO TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS /UPPER 70S AND LOW
80S/ ARE EXPECTED. THE BEST NEWS...DWPTS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
THU AND FRI...
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LITTLE CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
SUGGEST HIGHS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL. LOW DWPTS IN THE 50S...AND MAY
EVEN DIP INTO THE 40S LOCALLY. OVERNIGHT MINS IN THE 50S.
SAT AND SUN...
ZONAL FLOW BUT WITH SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THE ANTICYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE. THEREFORE...FEEL THAT GFS IS A BIT OVERDONE TRYING TO BRING
ABOUT SHRA ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH NIL
POPS. INCREASING MID LVL TEMPS AND MOISTURE ARE
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH ONLY SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO PHASE WITH THE SLACKENED
MASS FIELDS S OF THE REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO A SHIFT IN THE
PATTERN SUCH THAT WARMING/MOISTENING IS EXPECTED. THE SFC
REFLECTION LOOKS TO BE A WEAK WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD INCREASE
THE RISK FOR SHRA/TSTORMS BY THIS TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH 12Z...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR STRATUS NEAR THE S COAST WITH
VFR MIXED WITH AREAS OF LOWER CIGS FURTHER INLAND. FOG NOT
PREVALENT AND WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO BE CONFINED
MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH COAST. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS MOVING INTO W
MA AND NW CT.
TODAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN THE
MORNING...IMPROVING TO VFR. SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
EXPECTED IN THE MORNING W MA AND N CT...WITH A SECOND ROUND OF
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY INTERIOR.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH BRIEF
MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE. MAY SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER ACROSS E NEW ENG
OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE.
TONIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. SOUTH TO SOUTH WINDS 10-15 KT OR LESS.
SEAS BELOW 5 FT. AREAS OF FOG WITH POOR VISIBILITY.
SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS MAY REACH THE WATERS TOWARD MORNING.
TUESDAY...WINDS IN ANY TSTMS MAY GUST TO NEAR 35 KNOTS. LOCALLY
POOR VSBYS IN MORNING FOG. OTHERWISE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
OUTLOOK /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
A PERIOD OF QUIET BOATING WEATHER IS EXPECTED THANKS TO SLOW
MOVING HIGH PRES WHICH WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS OUT OF THE W-NW THROUGH FRI...SHIFTING
TO THE S SOMEWHAT BY SAT.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/DOODY
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...DOODY
AVIATION...KJC/DOODY
MARINE...WTB/DOODY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
953 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
...Isolated strong-severe storms possible this afternoon in the FL
Big Bend and south central GA...
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The 8 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front
extending southwestward from a weak low pressure center near
Columbia SC, through Marianna, FL, then west-southwestward to the
LA coast. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a long wave
trough over much of the eastern CONUS, with a weak upper level +PV
anomaly over northern MS & AL. Until this short wave translates
through our region, the cold front will make slow progress for the
remainder of today.
Pre-season cold front passages are often tricky, and this one is
no different. The latest ECAM, NSSLECAM, and HRRR have trended
much higher for PoPs today ahead of the cold front. They show the
FL Big Bend sea breeze front, developing mid-late afternoon due to
the mean opposing 1000-700 mb wind, colliding with the synoptic
cold front near or south of I-10. With ample moisture, especially
in the boundary layer, we expect scattered to numerous
thunderstorms from Tallahassee east and southward. The only
limiting factor will perhaps be some residual dry air above
700 mb.
When we modify the 8 am Tallahassee sounding using our forecast
afternoon temperature and dewpoint, we get a MLCAPE of 3,000,
which is very high. The ECAM shows a 30% chance of strong updrafts
ahead of the cold front, and 700-500 mb lapse rates will be around
6.1 C/km, which is a bit steeper than climo. Delta-theta values
will be in the 25-30K range. All of this suggests a chance for
isolated pulse severe storms. However, it`s unclear if, and how
much, the dry air above 700 mb may retard the updraft speed and
depth, which is why we still believe the threat for severe storms
is only about 5% within 25 miles of a point.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday] With the latest guidance trending upward
for PoPs around KTLH and KVLD, we will be adding TSRA to the 18z
TAF package. Gusty winds and poor cigs/Vis are likely in these
storms. Otherwise, we expect VFR conditions through the period.
&&
.Prev Discussion [345 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
An upper level trough will remain in place over much of the eastern
CONUS with surface high pressure centered over the lower Missouri
River valley extending well to the southeast and into central
Alabama. This high pressure will continue to push southeastward into
our area, bringing in a slightly cooler and much drier airmass. This
will allow mostly clear skies, cooler temperatures and only a slight
chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms in south central Georgia
and the eastern Florida Big Bend. Temperatures will be in the low-
mid 60s in southeast Alabama and southwest Georgia Wednesday and
Thursday morning warming into the upper 80s to around 90 during the
day. Further south and east, morning lows will be in the upper 60s
to low 70s and afternoon highs will peak in the low 90s.
.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
As surface high pressure shifts northeastward at the end of the
workweek and a +PV anomaly breaks off of the upper level trough over
the southeast, deep layer steering flow will shift to the south and
begin to bring a return of moisture to the area. Chances for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will return to around 20-40%
starting Friday, with the highest chances still over south central
Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
low 90s and morning lows will be in upper 60s to low-mid 70s.
.Marine...
A tighter pressure gradient in place today associated with a dry
cold front will mean north-northwest winds approaching cautionary
conditions over the western waters through Thursday morning. After
that, the gradient will weaken and winds and seas will return to
lower levels.
.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected. Some lower relative humidity
values, falling below 40% in some places, are expected over the next
couple days with lower chances of rainfall.
.Hydrology...
With all rivers below flood stage and significant rain not
expected, there are no hydrology concerns.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 95 71 92 66 93 / 50 10 10 0 10
Panama City 90 71 87 70 86 / 10 0 0 0 10
Dothan 92 63 87 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 93 64 90 65 92 / 10 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 93 69 91 67 93 / 50 10 10 10 10
Cross City 95 75 91 73 90 / 30 20 20 20 20
Apalachicola 92 73 89 70 88 / 30 10 0 0 10
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WESTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
901 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND TO SOME EXTENT LAKE
MICHIGAN, HAVE SHIFTED E-NE OF OUR COUNTIES, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS. TRIMMED A DEGREE OR SO FROM AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKE TO ALLOW FOR SOME 52 DEG READINGS, AND UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER CLEARING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD THAT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE WAS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME
CONTRACTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS FLANKED ON MOST
SIDES BY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...SO NET RESULT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE 900 MB
PLOT OFF THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CLOUD SHIELD THE
BEST...AND SHOWS SOME CONTRACTION CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FROM THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS...AND WILL GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR DANVILLE AND CHAMPAIGN.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THAT MOST
AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT
CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR ILLINOIS OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING
PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER STRONG ROCKIES RIDGE. MODEL SUITE CONSISTENT
ON BRINGING ENERGY UP OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO MIDWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES C BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
RAOB AND FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
MAY INHIBIT WARMING A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE
IT INTO THE 80S THROUGHOUT FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WAVE APPROACHING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IS MOVING INTO A
RELATIVELY DRY BUT MOISTENING AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...DIGGING OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD SLOW PROGRESSION
OF SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE SLOW THE INCOMING WAVE. CHANCE OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST
AVAILABLE ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BEING STRONG ENOUGH
WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP DECENT NVA IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AND
SHUNTING MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BUT INCREASINGLY HOT FORECAST AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS TRENDING WEAKER
WITH THE WAVE AND FORECAST AN EVOLUTION TO JUST A GENERAL WEAKNESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
WITH GENERALLY MORE CLOUD COVER. AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE
WITH A NOD TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE CMC
AND GEFS MEAN. A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS IT MAY BE
SWINGING BACK TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO LOW SHEAR IN THE RIDGE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE WARM 500 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE -10C. BIGGEST
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
MVFR CLOUDS IN NE ILLINOIS, APPARENTLY INFLUENCED BY AIR OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN, WILL LINGER NEAR CMI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. 900MB
RH ON THE RAP MODEL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LOCATION OF THAT CLOUD
MASS, AND IT IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM CMI BY
MID EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
IL HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CU RULES
SHOW THAT CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN IL, CLOSER TO
BMI AND CMI. HOWEVER, NO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS ILLINOIS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
LESS THAN 1OKT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
630 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD THAT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE WAS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME
CONTRACTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS FLANKED ON MOST
SIDES BY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...SO NET RESULT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE 900 MB
PLOT OFF THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CLOUD SHIELD THE
BEST...AND SHOWS SOME CONTRACTION CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FROM THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS...AND WILL GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR DANVILLE AND CHAMPAIGN.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THAT MOST
AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT
CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR ILLINOIS OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING
PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER STRONG ROCKIES RIDGE. MODEL SUITE CONSISTENT
ON BRINGING ENERGY UP OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO MIDWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES C BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
RAOB AND FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
MAY INHIBIT WARMING A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE
IT INTO THE 80S THROUGHOUT FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WAVE APPROACHING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IS MOVING INTO A
RELATIVELY DRY BUT MOISTENING AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...DIGGING OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD SLOW PROGRESSION
OF SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE SLOW THE INCOMING WAVE. CHANCE OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST
AVAILABLE ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BEING STRONG ENOUGH
WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP DECENT NVA IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AND
SHUNTING MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BUT INCREASINGLY HOT FORECAST AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS TRENDING WEAKER
WITH THE WAVE AND FORECAST AN EVOLUTION TO JUST A GENERAL WEAKNESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
WITH GENERALLY MORE CLOUD COVER. AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE
WITH A NOD TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE CMC
AND GEFS MEAN. A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS IT MAY BE
SWINGING BACK TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO LOW SHEAR IN THE RIDGE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE WARM 500 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE -10C. BIGGEST
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
MVFR CLOUDS IN NE ILLINOIS, APPARENTLY INFLUENCED BY AIR OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN, WILL LINGER NEAR CMI FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. 900MB
RH ON THE RAP MODEL SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE LOCATION OF THAT CLOUD
MASS, AND IT IS PROJECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AWAY FROM CMI BY
MID EVENING. THE DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL
IL HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED, LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CU RULES
SHOW THAT CLOUDS TOMORROW WILL BE MAINLY IN EASTERN IL, CLOSER TO
BMI AND CMI. HOWEVER, NO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS ILLINOIS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
LESS THAN 1OKT THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1209 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS FALLING
BELOW 50 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING NICELY THIS MORNING WITH
SUNSHINE PREVAILING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT 9 AM. AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...THE LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD THESE ASPECTS UNDER
CONTROL...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DEEP UPPER TROF FOR LATE AUGUST SITUATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
PUSHING THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED
LATE YESTERDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD
DECK CONTINUE THIN OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW AND THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATING SOME STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD AROUND OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
QUIET FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO ON THE COOL
SIDE AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLOUDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, HOWEVER, NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
CREEPING INTO NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FOR FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING IN BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME IN A LITTLE MORE COMPACT
AND QUICKER, SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ENOUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC RUNS THAT CONSENSUS IS WEAK. ALSO NOT INCLINED TO
LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THAT SLOW OF A SYSTEM. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE CONCENTRATION TO
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
LITTLE CHANGE REQUIRED TO EXISTING TAF SET. SOME SCATTERED DIURNAL
CUMULUS STARTING TO FORM AROUND 4000 FEET FROM KPIA-KHUF... BUT
THE MAIN AREA OF CEILINGS STILL IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND THE GREAT
LAKES...ASSOCIATED WITH LARGE UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN ONTARIO.
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK IS OCCURRING...
SO SOME BRIEF CEILINGS POSSIBLE KPIA-KCMI CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO FADE AWAY WITH SUNSET.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING FROM 12-18 KNOTS AT MOST SITES RECENTLY...
AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE SETTLING BACK
DOWN.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
945 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS FALLING
BELOW 50 DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING NICELY THIS MORNING WITH
SUNSHINE PREVAILING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AT 9 AM. AS
THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER EASTERN ONTARIO...THE LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL
EDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS
MORNING. THE EXISTING FORECAST HAD THESE ASPECTS UNDER
CONTROL...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DEEP UPPER TROF FOR LATE AUGUST SITUATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
PUSHING THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED
LATE YESTERDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD
DECK CONTINUE THIN OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW AND THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATING SOME STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD AROUND OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
QUIET FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO ON THE COOL
SIDE AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLOUDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, HOWEVER, NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
CREEPING INTO NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FOR FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING IN BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME IN A LITTLE MORE COMPACT
AND QUICKER, SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ENOUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC RUNS THAT CONSENSUS IS WEAK. ALSO NOT INCLINED TO
LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THAT SLOW OF A SYSTEM. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE CONCENTRATION TO
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING THE WEATHER ON
THE QUIET SIDE. ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF VFR CIGS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI WHICH
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATER THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO BE
IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
KPIA AND KBMI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS TIME WILL HOLD ON TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME
BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS
IF A MORE SOUTHWARD PUSH IS OBSERVED WITH THE CLOUD DECK TO
OUR NORTH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THRU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY
00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
600 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DEEP UPPER TROF FOR LATE AUGUST SITUATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
PUSHING THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED
LATE YESTERDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD
DECK CONTINUE THIN OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW AND THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATING SOME STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD AROUND OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
70S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
QUIET FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO ON THE COOL
SIDE AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLOUDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, HOWEVER, NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
CREEPING INTO NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FOR FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING IN BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME IN A LITTLE MORE COMPACT
AND QUICKER, SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ENOUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC RUNS THAT CONSENSUS IS WEAK. ALSO NOT INCLINED TO
LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THAT SLOW OF A SYSTEM. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE CONCENTRATION TO
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A LARGE AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS KEEPING THE WEATHER ON
THE QUIET SIDE. ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE WITH ANOTHER
BAND OF VFR CIGS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN AND WESTERN WI WHICH
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST AND AFFECT AT LEAST OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES
LATER THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUD BASES LOOK TO BE
IN THE 4000 TO 5000 FOOT RANGE BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
KPIA AND KBMI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS TIME WILL HOLD ON TO SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THIS TIME FRAME
BUT MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR OUR NORTHERN TAFS
IF A MORE SOUTHWARD PUSH IS OBSERVED WITH THE CLOUD DECK TO
OUR NORTH.
SURFACE WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME GUSTY OUT OF A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON. PREVAILING WIND
SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE FROM 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20
KTS AT TIMES THRU THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BY
00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
313 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DEEP UPPER TROF FOR LATE AUGUST SITUATED JUST NORTH OF LAKE HURON
EARLY THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY EDGE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. MEANWHILE...SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH ONE SUCH FEATURE NOW PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS WAVE MAY HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR
PUSHING THE STRATOCUMULUS DECK A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN ANTICIPATED
LATE YESTERDAY THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES FURTHER OFF TO OUR EAST WE SHOULD SEE THE CLOUD
DECK CONTINUE THIN OUT ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL PIECES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ROTATING SOUTHWARD AROUND THE
LARGE UPPER LOW AND THAT COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO A
LEAST SOME SCATTERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTH LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ONCE AGAIN
INDICATING SOME STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH
THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE REGION WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LATE THIS MORNING THRU THIS AFTERNOON.
850 MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WHAT WE HAD AROUND OUR AREA
YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE AFTERNOON HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE
70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
QUIET FORECAST AT LEAST UNTIL THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGH
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL, BUT SLOWLY WARMING THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO ON THE COOL
SIDE AT LEAST UNTIL THE CLOUDS INCREASE SOMEWHAT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE, HOWEVER, NOT ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT CENTRAL
ILLINOIS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. SOME SLIGHT CHANCES
CREEPING INTO NW OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY FOR FRIDAY, WITH
CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SAT MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS DIFFUSE AND SLOW MOVING IN BOTH THE GFS
AND THE ECMWF. THE NAM IS STARTING TO COME IN A LITTLE MORE COMPACT
AND QUICKER, SO NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT WITH ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION.
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN BACK AND FORTH ENOUGH OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL SYNOPTIC RUNS THAT CONSENSUS IS WEAK. ALSO NOT INCLINED TO
LEAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH THAT SLOW OF A SYSTEM. FOR NOW, WILL KEEP THE CONCENTRATION TO
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015
QUIET/VFR CONDTIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. LOW CLOUDS
SPINNING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ONTARIO, ARE SPILLING A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED. THIS IS RESULTING IN CIGS FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT AT
KPIA, KBMI, AND KCMI, BUT THEY SHOULD STILL REMAIN WELL INTO THE
VFR CATEGORY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTIME HOURS
TUESDAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
536 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.
ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.
THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 532 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR EXPECTED AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MID AND
HIGH LEVEL OVERCAST WILL OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS TONIGHT.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY THURSDAY MORNING
AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR AN AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM THURSDAY...BEST CHANCES
AT KMCK...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED SO WILL NOT
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS ATTM.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
232 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
ROTATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG
TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY VERY HIGH CINH IS PREVENTING LOCAL INITIATION...HOWEVER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WHERE CAP IS MOST LIKELY
TO BREAK ALSO CORRELATE WITH LOWEST CAPE/DRIEST AIR MASS...SO
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. BEYOND A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL THAN TODAY FROM SOME
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS AND
STRONGER CAP THAN TODAY. VERY HOT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
APPROACHING 100F OVER PARTS OF THE CWA...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
MAY SUPPORT RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH ON FRIDAY.
GFS AND NAM MOISTURE IS SLOW MOVING AND STAYS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORCING AND MOISTURE TO IMPACT
THE FA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
THURSDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE LOW SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE
FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THURSDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. NIL POPS ARE ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 70 IN THE EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO AROUND 65 IN THE FAR EASTERN FA. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
READINGS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VIS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KGLD
TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
MENTION...AND TREND WILL BE FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. SURFACE GRADIENT
INCREASES WEDNESDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND OUTSIDE THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
ROTATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG
TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY VERY HIGH CINH IS PREVENTING LOCAL INITIATION...HOWEVER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WHERE CAP IS MOST LIKELY
TO BREAK ALSO CORRELATE WITH LOWEST CAPE/DRIEST AIR MASS...SO
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. BEYOND A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.
WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL THAN TODAY FROM SOME
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS AND
STRONGER CAP THAN TODAY. VERY HOT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
APPROACHING 100F OVER PARTS OF THE CWA...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
MAY SUPPORT RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
RIDGE REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY HOWEVER A SLOW
MOVEMENT TO THE EAST IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL MAKE THEIR WAY EAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAYS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. THE RIDGE
WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN LATER ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WITH DRY
WEATHER EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A LEE SIDE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEEPEN INTO A WEAK 700MB TROUGH AS WE HEAD INTO
TUESDAY. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BECOME A POSSIBILITY
ONCE MORE MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF
AND GFS ARE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF THE HIGH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD... AS WELL AS THE EVENTUAL MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL LIKELY BE AROUND TO
JUST ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. SOME GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR CIGS/VIS
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KGLD
TERMINAL. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE
MENTION...AND TREND WILL BE FOR BETTER MOISTURE TO SHIFT EAST OF
THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY 10-12KT
WILL DECREASE TONIGHT AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST. SURFACE GRADIENT
INCREASES WEDNESDAY...AND WILL SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING AT
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KGLD AND OUTSIDE THE TAF PERIOD AT
KMCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
117 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
UPDATED NDFD HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND REMOVED THE MORNING FOG FROM THE ZFP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS USING THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. AS IS TYPICAL...
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S
ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION.
JUST A HINT OF VALLEY FOG IS NOTED IN THE MONTICELLO OBSERVATION
AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEEP...
AND CLOSED...LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF LOW HEIGHTS WHILE
WEAK PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVE BY AT MID LEVELS IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE MINUSCULE MODEL SPREAD WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND
SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12.
CAPITAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY AND KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW...TO A
MINIMUM. HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT NIGHT...LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR MAY SET A
RECORD LOW TONIGHT AT JKL...CURRENTLY A MILD 58 DEGREES FROM
1984...BUT PROBABLY LOZ/S 46 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1966 WILL STAY OUT
OF REACH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS
TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT
THEN EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
US WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TO
USHER IN LL MOISTURE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP WE COULD GET. SO FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO
CONTROL THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN KY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD AROUND 5K FEET WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
RIVER VALLEYS AND NEAR STREAMS AND LAKES. FOG AND LOW CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT SME FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THE OTHER TAF SITES.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1004 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
UPDATED NDFD HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINTS BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND REMOVED THE MORNING FOG FROM THE ZFP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS USING THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. AS IS TYPICAL...
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S
ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION.
JUST A HINT OF VALLEY FOG IS NOTED IN THE MONTICELLO OBSERVATION
AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEEP...
AND CLOSED...LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF LOW HEIGHTS WHILE
WEAK PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVE BY AT MID LEVELS IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE MINUSCULE MODEL SPREAD WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND
SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12.
CAPITAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY AND KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW...TO A
MINIMUM. HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT NIGHT...LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR MAY SET A
RECORD LOW TONIGHT AT JKL...CURRENTLY A MILD 58 DEGREES FROM
1984...BUT PROBABLY LOZ/S 46 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1966 WILL STAY OUT
OF REACH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS
TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT
THEN EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
US WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TO
USHER IN LL MOISTURE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP WE COULD GET. SO FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
THIS IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION...
TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH FURTHER
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFFECTING THE SME SITE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 13Z. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO JUST SME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS USING THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
FOR THE T AND TD GRIDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB
SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. AS IS TYPICAL...
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S
ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION.
JUST A HINT OF VALLEY FOG IS NOTED IN THE MONTICELLO OBSERVATION
AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEEP...
AND CLOSED...LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF LOW HEIGHTS WHILE
WEAK PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVE BY AT MID LEVELS IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE MINUSCULE MODEL SPREAD WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND
SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12.
CAPITAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY AND KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW...TO A
MINIMUM. HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT NIGHT...LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR MAY SET A
RECORD LOW TONIGHT AT JKL...CURRENTLY A MILD 58 DEGREES FROM
1984...BUT PROBABLY LOZ/S 46 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1966 WILL STAY OUT
OF REACH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS
TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT
THEN EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
US WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TO
USHER IN LL MOISTURE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP WE COULD GET. SO FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 750 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY.
THIS IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION...
TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO THE PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH FURTHER
BUILDS OVER THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS SOME PATCHY DENSE
FOG THAT HAS SHOWN UP IN THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
AREA AFFECTING THE SME SITE LIKELY THROUGH AROUND 13Z. HAVE ALSO
ADDED SOME MVFR FOG TO JUST SME FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF COOL AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS HAS KEPT
THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE NIGHT AND ALLOWED FOR A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING BELOW THE INVERSION. AS IS TYPICAL...
THIS HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN SHELTERED LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER 60S
ON THE RIDGES. DEWPOINTS MEANWHILE ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE CWA WITH LIGHT WINDS FROM THE WEST ABOVE THE INVERSION.
JUST A HINT OF VALLEY FOG IS NOTED IN THE MONTICELLO OBSERVATION
AND IN SOME OF THE WEB CAMS.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE ALL ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH THE DEEP...
AND CLOSED...LOW SLOWLY MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PLACE
THE OHIO VALLEY AND KENTUCKY IN THE MIDST OF LOW HEIGHTS WHILE
WEAK PACKETS OF ENERGY MOVE BY AT MID LEVELS IN BROAD NORTHWEST
FLOW. GIVEN THE MINUSCULE MODEL SPREAD WILL USE A GENERAL BLEND
SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS ON THE HRRR AND NAM12.
CAPITAL WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH
MINIMAL CLOUDS...LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES...AND COOL NIGHTS. THE
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD OVER KENTUCKY AND KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY CLOUDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING UPPER LOW...TO A
MINIMUM. HIGHS WILL END UP IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST SPOTS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AT NIGHT...LOOK FOR A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT TO
DEVELOP IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN INVERSION SETTING UP. CANNOT RULE
OUT PATCHY FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS TOWARDS DAWN THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE COOL AIR MAY SET A
RECORD LOW TONIGHT AT JKL...CURRENTLY A MILD 58 DEGREES FROM
1984...BUT PROBABLY LOZ/S 46 DEGREE RECORD FROM 1966 WILL STAY OUT
OF REACH.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. DID MAKE SOME DECENT ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS
TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...KEPT
THEN EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THE PERIOD...
IN LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL PROVIDE
US WITH PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK RETURN FLOW TO
USHER IN LL MOISTURE...HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE PLAINS...BRINGING RENEWED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON
HOW THE MODELS HANDLE THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE...WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH PRECIP WE COULD GET. SO FOR NOW HAVE
STUCK CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND AND MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN BELOW NORMAL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN GRADUALLY
WARM THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MONDAY. HUMIDITY WILL FOLLOW THE SAME
TREND...WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING INTO THE MID 60S BY SUNDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO EASTERN KY THIS NIGHT.
THIS IS BRINGING DRIER AIR AND CLEAR SKIES TO THE REGION...
TRANSLATING TO VFR CONDITIONS. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO THE PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE HIGH FURTHER BUILDS OVER
THE REGION. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY
FOG...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...FROM THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED N OF GEORGIAN BAY DRIFTING EASTWARD. TO THE W...A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES N INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE
LINGERING MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW...SOME
-SHRA/-DZ HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...AIDED BY NW
UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE HAS PROBABLY BEEN SOME LAKE COMPONENT TO THE
PCPN AS WELL. WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS PER
IR IMAGERY...RADAR HAS SHOWN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHING.
UNDER AN OVC CLOUD COVER...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY
FOR LATE AUG. SO FAR...TEMPS HAVE ONLY RISEN TO THE LOW/MID 50S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE PCPN LINGERS TO AROUND 60 OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DULUTH TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND NORTHWARD.
AS MID LEVEL LOW AND UPSTREAM RIDGE DRIFT E...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. MAIN FCST
ISSUES WILL BE TIMING THE ENDING OF PCPN AND THE CLEARING TREND.
UNDER SLOW HEIGHT RISES/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND WEAKENING
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING -SHRA/-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER MN. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMP
FALL TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MINS (TOWARD THE MID 40S) OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING...PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.
A FEW -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE NCNTRL/ERN
FCST AREA WED MORNING UNDER ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH
NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND AIR MASS TOO WARM
FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...ANY PCPN WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...APPROACHING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MI BY WED
EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH E ACROSS THE
FCST AREA AS THE HIGH ARRIVES AND THERMAL TROF DEPARTS. LARGELY
UTILIZED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT THE SKY COVER AND THE W TO E
CLEARING TREND ON WED. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL TOWARD SUNSET THAT THE
LAST OF THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE ERN FCST AREA. UNDER INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND DEPARTURE OF THERMAL TROF...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60/LWR 60S E WHERE CLOUDS LINGER
LONGEST TO THE UPPER 60S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING WITH SLOW MOVING SFC LOW REORGANIZES INTO
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND NUNAVUT CANADA BY END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
WEEK TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS
WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEEPENS AND SETTLES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR MUCH RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN ARE
SLIM.
STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.5 INCH SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED MINS
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FOR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER INTERIOR. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL SO THERE MAY BE FOG. ALSO ADDED
MENTION OF FROST FOR COLDEST SPOTS. THIS NIGHT APPEARS TO BE TAIL
END OF THE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS BEFORE WARMING TREND STARTS UP ON
THURSDAY.
ONLY NOTABLE CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES BRIEF PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LARGER SCALE SUPPORT NOT VERY STRONG FOR
RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERALLY
DISPLACED OF UPPER LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDING FM WYOMING/NEBRASKA TO IOWA/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. RESULT IS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT STAYING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. APPEARS THAT GREATEST MOISTURE INFLOW IN FORM OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION IS INTERCEPTED BY SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. NO HELP FM
INSTABILITY WITH STRONGER MUCAPE STAYING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BETTER SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION RUNS FM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. LOWER RANGE CHANCE POPS IS ALL THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WARRANTS ATTM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...VERY WEAK TROUGHING...LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW NARROW
LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THIS IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME SORT OF ONSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WEST HALF OF CWA SHOULD START TO SEE MORE
S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS. H85 TEMPS
COOL A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WARMEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOW-MID 70S SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST WITH LESS INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES COOLING AND BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKES BETTER HOLD ON SUNDAY. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS
SFC RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE BY TO THE EAST. WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO
13-15C...SHOULD SEE READINGS MOST AREAS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 70S.
LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH LESS LAKE INFLUENCE AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT.
RIDGING ALOFT FIRMLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WITH GRADIENT S WIND BTWN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. H85 TEMPS VARY WILDLY
THOUGH WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING BULK OF WARMTH CLOSER TO THE SFC
TROUGH AND OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO /H85 TEMPS UP TO 15C OVER UPR
MICHIGAN/ WHILE GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS PUSHING PAST 22C ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SETUP ALONE JUSTIFIES
CONSENSUS TEMPS TO AT LEAST LOWER 80S. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER WITH LINGERING UPPER RIDGE AND APPROACHING
SFC FRONT. GFS BRINGS FRONT THROUGH UPPER LAKES QUICKER...BUT EXPECT
SLOWER IDEA FM ECMWF GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE IT WILL BE RUNNING UP
AGAINST. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
STRONGER S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE MOST AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS INTO MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL DO FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
AFTN. WINDS THIS AFTN WILL STILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT KSAW AND TO
25KT AT KCMX. OCNL -RA AND -DZ ARE POSSIBLE AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY
KSAW THIS AFTN...BUT SHOULDN`T REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. APPROACHING HIGH
PRES AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KIWD
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BRINGS
CIGS BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA WED...MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AT KIWD/KCMX IN
THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
WITH LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TONIGHT AND WED. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-20KT W TO 15-30KT E. WINDS ON
WED WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT W AND UNDER 20KT E BY THE END OF THE
AFTN. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 20KT
THU THRU SUN.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
305 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E...
WITH SHARP CYC FLOW ARND THIS FEATURE DOMINATING THE GREAT LKS.
LOCAL RAOBS INDICATE THE SFC-H7 LYR IS QUITE MOIST WITH H925...H85
AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT INL AND E NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C.
THERE ARE ALSO TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURE. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW HEADING INTO NRN LK MI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHIFT AND TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
HAD IMPACTED THE ERN CWA LAST EVNG TO THE SE WITH IT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...SFC OBS AND THE MQT 88D INDICATE RELATIVELY FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY JUST SOME DRIZZLE...LINGER OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG DESPITE THE MOIST LLVLS AND SHARP CYC NW FLOW. THE CULPRITS
APPEAR TO BE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO AND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND RATHER SHARP H875-85 INVRN SHOWN ON
THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/HGT
RISES THAT IS LIMITING THE LK EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE NE OF H85
THERMAL TROF CENTERED ON AN AXIS FM INL TO GRB. 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE
3C AT INL AND GRB...BUT 10C AT YPL. WV IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING SWD TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO IS DROPPING
THRU NW ONTARIO. THE LATEST THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE
NMRS SHOWERS OVER LK NIPIGON MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED SHRTWV
ROTATING SWD ARND SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO.
TODAY...WHILE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO NRN LK SUP THIS MRNG...MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AND HGT RISES...FCST TO BE ABOUT 50M BTWN 12Z-24Z TODAY...LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LO WL DOMINATE. SO ALTHOUGH FCST PROFILES
INDICATE SOME DEEPENING MSTR THRU THIS MRNG...THEY ALSO SHOW A NEAR
ABSENCE OF ANY UVV...IN FACT MAINLY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WL
MAINTAIN THE INVRN NEAR H85 AND LIMIT POPS. THE ERN CWA HAS A BETTER
CHC TO SEE THE HIER POPS...AS THIS AREA WL BE CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WITH AT LEAST SOME UVV/
SHARPER CYC FLOW AND DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW THAT
WL ACCENTUATE LLVL CNVGC. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES...TENDED TO LOWER
GOING POPS. PLENTY OF LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY
AGAIN DESPITE SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS THAT WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
DAY THAN YDAY. THE STEADY/GUSTY NW WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WHIP UP HI
WAVES ON LAKE SUP...RESULTING IN A HI SWIM RISK FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...WITH CONTINUED SLOW HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/WEAKENING
LLVL CYC FLOW TO THE W OF WEAKENING CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
NE TOWARD THE S END OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WED...EXPECT DIMINISHING
POPS. THIS TREND WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE LLVL
FLOW WL BECOME MORE ACYC CLOSER TO APRCHG SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO
MN. LINGERING LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE
COOLEST OVERNGT LOWS TOWARD THE MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE
THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG LATE WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC HI
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING WITH SLOW MOVING SFC LOW REORGANIZES INTO
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND NUNAVUT CANADA BY END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
WEEK TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS
WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEEPENS AND SETTLES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR MUCH RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN ARE
SLIM.
STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.5 INCH SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED MINS
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FOR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER INTERIOR. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL SO THERE MAY BE FOG. ALSO ADDED
MENTION OF FROST FOR COLDEST SPOTS. THIS NIGHT APPEARS TO BE TAIL
END OF THE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS BEFORE WARMING TREND STARTS UP ON
THURSDAY.
ONLY NOTABLE CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES BRIEF PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LARGER SCALE SUPPORT NOT VERY STRONG FOR
RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERALLY
DISPLACED OF UPPER LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDING FM WYOMING/NEBRASKA TO IOWA/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. RESULT IS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT STAYING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. APPEARS THAT GREATEST MOISTURE INFLOW IN FORM OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION IS INTERCEPTED BY SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. NO HELP FM
INSTABILITY WITH STRONGER MUCAPE STAYING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BETTER SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION RUNS FM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. LOWER RANGE CHANCE POPS IS ALL THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WARRANTS ATTM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...VERY WEAK TROUGHING...LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW NARROW
LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THIS IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME SORT OF ONSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WEST HALF OF CWA SHOULD START TO SEE MORE
S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS. H85 TEMPS
COOL A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WARMEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOW-MID 70S SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST WITH LESS INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES COOLING AND BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKES BETTER HOLD ON SUNDAY. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS
SFC RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE BY TO THE EAST. WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO
13-15C...SHOULD SEE READINGS MOST AREAS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 70S.
LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH LESS LAKE INFLUENCE AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT.
RIDGING ALOFT FIRMLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WITH GRADIENT S WIND BTWN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. H85 TEMPS VARY WILDLY
THOUGH WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING BULK OF WARMTH CLOSER TO THE SFC
TROUGH AND OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO /H85 TEMPS UP TO 15C OVER UPR
MICHIGAN/ WHILE GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS PUSHING PAST 22C ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SETUP ALONE JUSTIFIES
CONSENSUS TEMPS TO AT LEAST LOWER 80S. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER WITH LINGERING UPPER RIDGE AND APPROACHING
SFC FRONT. GFS BRINGS FRONT THROUGH UPPER LAKES QUICKER...BUT EXPECT
SLOWER IDEA FM ECMWF GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE IT WILL BE RUNNING UP
AGAINST. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
STRONGER S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE MOST AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS INTO MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL DO FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
AFTN. WINDS THIS AFTN WILL STILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT KSAW AND TO
25KT AT KCMX. OCNL -RA AND -DZ ARE POSSIBLE AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY
KSAW THIS AFTN...BUT SHOULDN`T REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. APPROACHING HIGH
PRES AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KIWD
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BRINGS
CIGS BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA WED...MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AT KIWD/KCMX IN
THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SHARP PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING THRU
ONTARIO TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS UP TO 30
KTS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN A CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE. BUT AS THE LO
TO THE E WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY TONIGHT...APPROACHING HI
PRES/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH W-E. AS
THE HI MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED/WED NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL UNDER 20 KTS. A RELATIVELY FLAT PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SO WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
130 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E...
WITH SHARP CYC FLOW ARND THIS FEATURE DOMINATING THE GREAT LKS.
LOCAL RAOBS INDICATE THE SFC-H7 LYR IS QUITE MOIST WITH H925...H85
AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT INL AND E NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C.
THERE ARE ALSO TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURE. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW HEADING INTO NRN LK MI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHIFT AND TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
HAD IMPACTED THE ERN CWA LAST EVNG TO THE SE WITH IT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...SFC OBS AND THE MQT 88D INDICATE RELATIVELY FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY JUST SOME DRIZZLE...LINGER OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG DESPITE THE MOIST LLVLS AND SHARP CYC NW FLOW. THE CULPRITS
APPEAR TO BE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO AND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND RATHER SHARP H875-85 INVRN SHOWN ON
THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/HGT
RISES THAT IS LIMITING THE LK EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE NE OF H85
THERMAL TROF CENTERED ON AN AXIS FM INL TO GRB. 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE
3C AT INL AND GRB...BUT 10C AT YPL. WV IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING SWD TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO IS DROPPING
THRU NW ONTARIO. THE LATEST THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE
NMRS SHOWERS OVER LK NIPIGON MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED SHRTWV
ROTATING SWD ARND SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO.
TODAY...WHILE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO NRN LK SUP THIS MRNG...MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AND HGT RISES...FCST TO BE ABOUT 50M BTWN 12Z-24Z TODAY...LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LO WL DOMINATE. SO ALTHOUGH FCST PROFILES
INDICATE SOME DEEPENING MSTR THRU THIS MRNG...THEY ALSO SHOW A NEAR
ABSENCE OF ANY UVV...IN FACT MAINLY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WL
MAINTAIN THE INVRN NEAR H85 AND LIMIT POPS. THE ERN CWA HAS A BETTER
CHC TO SEE THE HIER POPS...AS THIS AREA WL BE CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WITH AT LEAST SOME UVV/
SHARPER CYC FLOW AND DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW THAT
WL ACCENTUATE LLVL CNVGC. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES...TENDED TO LOWER
GOING POPS. PLENTY OF LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY
AGAIN DESPITE SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS THAT WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
DAY THAN YDAY. THE STEADY/GUSTY NW WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WHIP UP HI
WAVES ON LAKE SUP...RESULTING IN A HI SWIM RISK FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...WITH CONTINUED SLOW HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/WEAKENING
LLVL CYC FLOW TO THE W OF WEAKENING CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
NE TOWARD THE S END OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WED...EXPECT DIMINISHING
POPS. THIS TREND WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE LLVL
FLOW WL BECOME MORE ACYC CLOSER TO APRCHG SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO
MN. LINGERING LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE
COOLEST OVERNGT LOWS TOWARD THE MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE
THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG LATE WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC HI
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATES SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WED MORNING AS NW
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 5-6C ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN...BUT
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING AN
END TO RAIN POTENTIAL BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS WED IN THE 60S WILL
COMBINE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WED NIGHT TO BRING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 30S.
SW FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 14C BY
THE END OF THE DAY THU...RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THU.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN NW FLOW
AND PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
STEADY. OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
REASONABLE.
PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE FOR SAT...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRI.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON WITH DRY WEATHER AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 128 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE
AFTN. WINDS THIS AFTN WILL STILL BE GUSTY TO 20KT AT KSAW AND TO
25KT AT KCMX. OCNL -RA AND -DZ ARE POSSIBLE AT KCMX AND ESPECIALLY
KSAW THIS AFTN...BUT SHOULDN`T REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. APPROACHING HIGH
PRES AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KIWD
FOR A TIME THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BRINGS
CIGS BACK TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA WED...MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AT KIWD/KCMX IN
THE MORNING. CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN AT KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SHARP PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING THRU
ONTARIO TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS UP TO 30
KTS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN A CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE. BUT AS THE LO
TO THE E WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY TONIGHT...APPROACHING HI
PRES/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH W-E. AS
THE HI MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED/WED NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL UNDER 20 KTS. A RELATIVELY FLAT PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SO WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
728 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E...
WITH SHARP CYC FLOW ARND THIS FEATURE DOMINATING THE GREAT LKS.
LOCAL RAOBS INDICATE THE SFC-H7 LYR IS QUITE MOIST WITH H925...H85
AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT INL AND E NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C.
THERE ARE ALSO TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURE. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW HEADING INTO NRN LK MI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHIFT AND TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
HAD IMPACTED THE ERN CWA LAST EVNG TO THE SE WITH IT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...SFC OBS AND THE MQT 88D INDICATE RELATIVELY FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY JUST SOME DRIZZLE...LINGER OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG DESPITE THE MOIST LLVLS AND SHARP CYC NW FLOW. THE CULPRITS
APPEAR TO BE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO AND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND RATHER SHARP H875-85 INVRN SHOWN ON
THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/HGT
RISES THAT IS LIMITING THE LK EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE NE OF H85
THERMAL TROF CENTERED ON AN AXIS FM INL TO GRB. 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE
3C AT INL AND GRB...BUT 10C AT YPL. WV IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING SWD TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO IS DROPPING
THRU NW ONTARIO. THE LATEST THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE
NMRS SHOWERS OVER LK NIPIGON MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED SHRTWV
ROTATING SWD ARND SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO.
TODAY...WHILE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO NRN LK SUP THIS MRNG...MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AND HGT RISES...FCST TO BE ABOUT 50M BTWN 12Z-24Z TODAY...LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LO WL DOMINATE. SO ALTHOUGH FCST PROFILES
INDICATE SOME DEEPENING MSTR THRU THIS MRNG...THEY ALSO SHOW A NEAR
ABSENCE OF ANY UVV...IN FACT MAINLY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WL
MAINTAIN THE INVRN NEAR H85 AND LIMIT POPS. THE ERN CWA HAS A BETTER
CHC TO SEE THE HIER POPS...AS THIS AREA WL BE CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WITH AT LEAST SOME UVV/
SHARPER CYC FLOW AND DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW THAT
WL ACCENTUATE LLVL CNVGC. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES...TENDED TO LOWER
GOING POPS. PLENTY OF LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY
AGAIN DESPITE SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS THAT WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
DAY THAN YDAY. THE STEADY/GUSTY NW WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WHIP UP HI
WAVES ON LAKE SUP...RESULTING IN A HI SWIM RISK FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...WITH CONTINUED SLOW HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/WEAKENING
LLVL CYC FLOW TO THE W OF WEAKENING CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
NE TOWARD THE S END OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WED...EXPECT DIMINISHING
POPS. THIS TREND WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE LLVL
FLOW WL BECOME MORE ACYC CLOSER TO APRCHG SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO
MN. LINGERING LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE
COOLEST OVERNGT LOWS TOWARD THE MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE
THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG LATE WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC HI
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATES SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WED MORNING AS NW
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 5-6C ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN...BUT
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING AN
END TO RAIN POTENTIAL BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS WED IN THE 60S WILL
COMBINE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WED NIGHT TO BRING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 30S.
SW FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 14C BY
THE END OF THE DAY THU...RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THU.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN NW FLOW
AND PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
STEADY. OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
REASONABLE.
PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE FOR SAT...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRI.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON WITH DRY WEATHER AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 726 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LO PRES TO THE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS
FCST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE AT IWD TNGT...WHEN THE CLOSER
APRCH OF HI PRES AND SOME DRYING/A WEAKENING OF THE LLVL CYC FLOW WL
LIKELY ALLOW AN IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR. SOME -SHRA/-DZ
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPR DISTURBANCE THIS MRNG MAY BRING SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY CMX...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WL DIMINISH
BY LATE MRNG FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT DISTURBANCE. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WL OCCUR AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
SITE THRU TODAY...BUT EVEN THERE THE WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SHARP PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING THRU
ONTARIO TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS UP TO 30
KTS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN A CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE. BUT AS THE LO
TO THE E WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY TONIGHT...APPROACHING HI
PRES/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH W-E. AS
THE HI MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED/WED NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL UNDER 20 KTS. A RELATIVELY FLAT PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SO WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT INTO THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ005-006.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
724 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E...
WITH SHARP CYC FLOW ARND THIS FEATURE DOMINATING THE GREAT LKS.
LOCAL RAOBS INDICATE THE SFC-H7 LYR IS QUITE MOIST WITH H925...H85
AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT INL AND E NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C.
THERE ARE ALSO TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURE. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW HEADING INTO NRN LK MI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHIFT AND TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
HAD IMPACTED THE ERN CWA LAST EVNG TO THE SE WITH IT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...SFC OBS AND THE MQT 88D INDICATE RELATIVELY FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY JUST SOME DRIZZLE...LINGER OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG DESPITE THE MOIST LLVLS AND SHARP CYC NW FLOW. THE CULPRITS
APPEAR TO BE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO AND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND RATHER SHARP H875-85 INVRN SHOWN ON
THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/HGT
RISES THAT IS LIMITING THE LK EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE NE OF H85
THERMAL TROF CENTERED ON AN AXIS FM INL TO GRB. 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE
3C AT INL AND GRB...BUT 10C AT YPL. WV IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING SWD TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO IS DROPPING
THRU NW ONTARIO. THE LATEST THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE
NMRS SHOWERS OVER LK NIPIGON MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED SHRTWV
ROTATING SWD ARND SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO.
TODAY...WHILE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO NRN LK SUP THIS MRNG...MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AND HGT RISES...FCST TO BE ABOUT 50M BTWN 12Z-24Z TODAY...LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LO WL DOMINATE. SO ALTHOUGH FCST PROFILES
INDICATE SOME DEEPENING MSTR THRU THIS MRNG...THEY ALSO SHOW A NEAR
ABSENCE OF ANY UVV...IN FACT MAINLY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WL
MAINTAIN THE INVRN NEAR H85 AND LIMIT POPS. THE ERN CWA HAS A BETTER
CHC TO SEE THE HIER POPS...AS THIS AREA WL BE CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WITH AT LEAST SOME UVV/
SHARPER CYC FLOW AND DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW THAT
WL ACCENTUATE LLVL CNVGC. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES...TENDED TO LOWER
GOING POPS. PLENTY OF LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY
AGAIN DESPITE SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS THAT WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
DAY THAN YDAY. THE STEADY/GUSTY NW WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WHIP UP HI
WAVES ON LAKE SUP...RESULTING IN A HI SWIM RISK FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...WITH CONTINUED SLOW HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/WEAKENING
LLVL CYC FLOW TO THE W OF WEAKENING CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
NE TOWARD THE S END OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WED...EXPECT DIMINISHING
POPS. THIS TREND WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE LLVL
FLOW WL BECOME MORE ACYC CLOSER TO APRCHG SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO
MN. LINGERING LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE
COOLEST OVERNGT LOWS TOWARD THE MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE
THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG LATE WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC HI
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATES SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WED MORNING AS NW
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 5-6C ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN...BUT
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING AN
END TO RAIN POTENTIAL BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS WED IN THE 60S WILL
COMBINE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WED NIGHT TO BRING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 30S.
SW FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 14C BY
THE END OF THE DAY THU...RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THU.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN NW FLOW
AND PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
STEADY. OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
REASONABLE.
PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE FOR SAT...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRI.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON WITH DRY WEATHER AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 724 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LO PRES TO THE NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS
FCST PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WL BE AT IWD TNGT...WHEN THE CLOSER
APRCH OF HI PRES AND SOME DRYING/A WEAKENING OF THE LLVL CYC FLOW WL
LIKELY ALLOW AN IMPROVEMENT TO MARGINAL VFR. SOME -SHRA/-DZ
ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING UPR DISTURBANCE THIS MRNG MAY BRING SOME
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO MAINLY CMX...BUT THIS POTENTIAL WL DIMINISH
BY LATE MRNG FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THAT DISTURBANCE. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS WL OCCUR AT THE MORE EXPOSED CMX
SITE THRU TODAY...BUT EVEN THERE THE WINDS WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG
WITH LOSS OF HEATING/SLOWLY WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SHARP PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING THRU
ONTARIO TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS UP TO 30
KTS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN A CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE. BUT AS THE LO
TO THE E WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY TONIGHT...APPROACHING HI
PRES/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH W-E. AS
THE HI MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED/WED NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL UNDER 20 KTS. A RELATIVELY FLAT PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SO WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
410 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW UNSEASONABLY DEEP
CLOSED LO IN ONTARIO JUST NE OF LK SUP DRIFTING SLOWLY TO THE E...
WITH SHARP CYC FLOW ARND THIS FEATURE DOMINATING THE GREAT LKS.
LOCAL RAOBS INDICATE THE SFC-H7 LYR IS QUITE MOIST WITH H925...H85
AND H7 DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT INL AND E NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C.
THERE ARE ALSO TWO SHRTWVS OF NOTE ROTATING ARND THE LARGER SCALE
FEATURE. THE FIRST OF THESE IS NOW HEADING INTO NRN LK MI AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE SHIFT AND TAKING THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS THAT
HAD IMPACTED THE ERN CWA LAST EVNG TO THE SE WITH IT. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS DISTURBANCE...SFC OBS AND THE MQT 88D INDICATE RELATIVELY FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY JUST SOME DRIZZLE...LINGER OVER UPR MI EARLY THIS
MRNG DESPITE THE MOIST LLVLS AND SHARP CYC NW FLOW. THE CULPRITS
APPEAR TO BE LARGER SCALE QVECTOR DVGC TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO AND
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHRTWV AND RATHER SHARP H875-85 INVRN SHOWN ON
THE 00Z INL/YPL RAOBS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE NEGATIVE DYNAMICS/HGT
RISES THAT IS LIMITING THE LK EFFECT COMPONENT TO THE NE OF H85
THERMAL TROF CENTERED ON AN AXIS FM INL TO GRB. 00Z H85 TEMPS WERE
3C AT INL AND GRB...BUT 10C AT YPL. WV IMAGERY/RAP ANALYSIS INDICATE
ANOTHER SHRTWV ROTATING SWD TO THE W OF THE CLOSED LO IS DROPPING
THRU NW ONTARIO. THE LATEST THUNDER BAY RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF MORE
NMRS SHOWERS OVER LK NIPIGON MOVING INTO NRN LK SUP.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS ASSOCIATED SHRTWV
ROTATING SWD ARND SLOWLY DEPARTING CLOSED LO.
TODAY...WHILE ONTARIO SHRTWV MOVING TO THE S IS ON TRACK TO MOVE
INTO NRN LK SUP THIS MRNG...MODELS INDICATE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC
AND HGT RISES...FCST TO BE ABOUT 50M BTWN 12Z-24Z TODAY...LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE CLOSED LO WL DOMINATE. SO ALTHOUGH FCST PROFILES
INDICATE SOME DEEPENING MSTR THRU THIS MRNG...THEY ALSO SHOW A NEAR
ABSENCE OF ANY UVV...IN FACT MAINLY LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE THAT WL
MAINTAIN THE INVRN NEAR H85 AND LIMIT POPS. THE ERN CWA HAS A BETTER
CHC TO SEE THE HIER POPS...AS THIS AREA WL BE CLOSER TO THE
DEPARTING DISTURBANCE/WEAKER SUBSIDENCE WITH AT LEAST SOME UVV/
SHARPER CYC FLOW AND DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP IN PERSISTENT NW FLOW THAT
WL ACCENTUATE LLVL CNVGC. GIVEN THESE NEGATIVES...TENDED TO LOWER
GOING POPS. PLENTY OF LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP RECOVERY
AGAIN DESPITE SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS THAT WL ALLOW FOR A WARMER
DAY THAN YDAY. THE STEADY/GUSTY NW WINDS WL CONTINUE TO WHIP UP HI
WAVES ON LAKE SUP...RESULTING IN A HI SWIM RISK FOR MARQUETTE AND
ALGER COUNTIES.
TNGT...WITH CONTINUED SLOW HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/WEAKENING
LLVL CYC FLOW TO THE W OF WEAKENING CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO LIFT
NE TOWARD THE S END OF JAMES BAY BY 12Z WED...EXPECT DIMINISHING
POPS. THIS TREND WL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE LLVL
FLOW WL BECOME MORE ACYC CLOSER TO APRCHG SFC HI PRES MOVING INTO
MN. LINGERING LO CLDS WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. EXPECT THE
COOLEST OVERNGT LOWS TOWARD THE MID 40S OVER THE INTERIOR W...WHERE
THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLRG LATE WITH THE APRCH OF THE SFC HI
PRES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATES SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WED MORNING AS NW
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 5-6C ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN...BUT
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING AN
END TO RAIN POTENTIAL BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS WED IN THE 60S WILL
COMBINE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WED NIGHT TO BRING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 30S.
SW FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 14C BY
THE END OF THE DAY THU...RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THU.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN NW FLOW
AND PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
STEADY. OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
REASONABLE.
PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE FOR SAT...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRI.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON WITH DRY WEATHER AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES TO THE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...KCMX WILL
SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHRA AND SOME
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SHARP PRES GRADIENT ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP LO PRES MOVING THRU
ONTARIO TO THE E OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MAINTAIN NW WINDS UP TO 30
KTS TODAY. THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THIS MORNING MAY CAUSE SOME
GALE FORCE GUSTS IN A CORRIDOR OVER THE CENTRAL LAKE. BUT AS THE LO
TO THE E WEAKENS AND MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY TONIGHT...APPROACHING HI
PRES/WEAKENING PRES GRADIENT WILL CAUSE WINDS TO DIMINISH W-E. AS
THE HI MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES LATE WED/WED NIGHT...EXPECT WINDS
TO FALL UNDER 20 KTS. A RELATIVELY FLAT PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...SO WINDS FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD BE
UNDER 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
252 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE LONG TERM LATE AUG
AVG. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE IS
JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ANOTHER IS NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AND A THIRD
IS MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. SHRA HAD NOT BEEN AS NMRS AS EXPECTED
OVER UPPER MI UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN SHORTWAVE REACHED WRN UPPER MI.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE HAD BEEN A RATHER
SOLID BAND OF SHRA...EXTENDING FROM AROUND LAKE NIPIGON SE AND E TO
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW/ZONE OF WAA/RATHER FOCUSED
THETA-E ADVECTION. 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 1C
AT KINL PER 12Z RAOBS RUNS FROM NRN MN INTO NRN WI/SRN UPPER MI
AND TOWARD LWR MI.
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE NIPIGON LOOKS
QUITE VIGOROUS...AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW DECENT SHIELD OF SHRA
ADVANCING S WITH FEATURE. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHRA
COVERAGE OVER THE W IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI WILL SPREAD INCREASED SHRA
ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...
VEERING WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THE SHRA OVER THE ERN LAKE SE INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA AS WELL. LAKE NIPIGON SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
AID SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE E THRU LATE EVENING INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WAA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT/NMRS SHRA OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
WARMEST WATER RESIDES...TO ADD A LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN AS WELL.
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PCPN WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WRN FCST AREA.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS FARTHER E ON TUE AND HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUE...LINGERING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/UPSLOPING AND SOME LAKE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS NORMALLY
FAVORED BY NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHRA
SHOULD TEND TO SHOW SOME DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS) WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WHERE PCPN IS MOST FREQUENT. NEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS MAY BE SET
AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
COULD SEE SOME ISOLATES SHOWERS OVER THE ERN CWA WED MORNING AS NW
WINDS AND 850MB TEMPS OF 5-6C ALLOW FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN...BUT
OVERALL FORCING WILL BE WEAK. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN WILL BRING AN
END TO RAIN POTENTIAL BY WED AFTERNOON. HIGHS WED IN THE 60S WILL
COMBINE WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING...DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
WINDS WED NIGHT TO BRING LOWS IN THE 40S INLAND...WITH A FEW SPOTS
IN THE UPPER 30S.
SW FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES OUT WILL BRING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 14C BY
THE END OF THE DAY THU...RESULTING IN NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S. DRY WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH THU.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A COLD FRONT MOVING S FROM CANADA AND
INTO THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI WHILE A SHORTWAVE RIDES DOWN NW FLOW
AND PASSES OVER OR NEAR THE CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE WITH
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST
STEADY. OVERALL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SEEM
REASONABLE.
PRECIP IS QUESTIONABLE FOR SAT...BUT COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS IF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO FRI.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOVE NORMAL SUN AND MON WITH DRY WEATHER AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER
70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES TO THE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...KCMX WILL
SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHRA AND SOME
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES JUST N OF THUNDER BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU TUE. UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO WHERE THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AND DESTABLIZATION IS GREATEST...WNW GALES UP TO 35
KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE LAKE THRU THE AFTN.
CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NCENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AS
THIS AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER A SLACKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO PRES.
ADDED A MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND WINDS MAY BE WEAKER FOR A
TIME TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE
LO JUST TO THE N. AS THE LO CONTINUES E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT/TUE...NW GALES TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE SHARPEST. AS THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E AND HI PRES TO THE
W APPROACHES...THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON TUE
NIGHT/WED. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
125 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE LONG TERM LATE AUG
AVG. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE IS
JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ANOTHER IS NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AND A THIRD
IS MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. SHRA HAD NOT BEEN AS NMRS AS EXPECTED
OVER UPPER MI UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN SHORTWAVE REACHED WRN UPPER MI.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE HAD BEEN A RATHER
SOLID BAND OF SHRA...EXTENDING FROM AROUND LAKE NIPIGON SE AND E TO
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW/ZONE OF WAA/RATHER FOCUSED
THETA-E ADVECTION. 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 1C
AT KINL PER 12Z RAOBS RUNS FROM NRN MN INTO NRN WI/SRN UPPER MI
AND TOWARD LWR MI.
ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE NIPIGON LOOKS
QUITE VIGOROUS...AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW DECENT SHIELD OF SHRA
ADVANCING S WITH FEATURE. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHRA
COVERAGE OVER THE W IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI WILL SPREAD INCREASED SHRA
ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...
VEERING WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THE SHRA OVER THE ERN LAKE SE INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA AS WELL. LAKE NIPIGON SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
AID SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE E THRU LATE EVENING INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WAA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT/NMRS SHRA OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
WARMEST WATER RESIDES...TO ADD A LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN AS WELL.
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PCPN WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WRN FCST AREA.
ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS FARTHER E ON TUE AND HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUE...LINGERING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/UPSLOPING AND SOME LAKE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS NORMALLY
FAVORED BY NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHRA
SHOULD TEND TO SHOW SOME DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS) WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WHERE PCPN IS MOST FREQUENT. NEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS MAY BE SET
AT SOME LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015
DAMP AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATION TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC
WED. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES BY THU INTO
THE WEEKEND.
TUE NIGHT AND WED...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MAINLY NNW FLOW WITH 330-340 WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 6C INTO EARLY WED. WITH THE NNW FLOW
AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKE...EXPECT THE
GREATEST -SHRA COVERAGE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI EVEN AS THE AMOUNTS
DIMINISH. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH AND END WED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES BLO 0.5
INCH...EXPECT INLAND MIN TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THU SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.
FRI-MON...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT AND IMPACT OF A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOST
OF THE PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND WEST OF WI. THIS WOULD ALLOW
A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH TO SLIDE TOWARD OR INTO UPPER MI. THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WNW FLOW SHRTWVS SUPPORTS CONTINUED
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA POPS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
AWAY FROM PCPN FOR SAT INTO MON AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 124 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES TO THE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU MUCH OF THE FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...KCMX WILL
SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH OCCASIONAL HEAVIER SHRA AND SOME
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES MAINLY THIS MORNING DUE TO A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015
AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES JUST N OF THUNDER BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU TUE. UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO WHERE THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AND DESTABLIZATION IS GREATEST...WNW GALES UP TO 35
KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE LAKE THRU THE AFTN.
CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NCENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AS
THIS AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER A SLACKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO PRES.
ADDED A MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND WINDS MAY BE WEAKER FOR A
TIME TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE
LO JUST TO THE N. AS THE LO CONTINUES E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT/TUE...NW GALES TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE SHARPEST. AS THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E AND HI PRES TO THE
W APPROACHES...THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON TUE
NIGHT/WED. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
624 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN. ELONGATED SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISS RVR
VALLEY. A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER MONTANA...THEN
MEANDERS SE INTO CENTRAL KS. ALSO A DISTINCT DRY LINE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 30S AND 40S WITH TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE 100.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST
WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB...ALONG THE DRY
LINE. A COUPLE CU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT IS
MINIMAL AND SHALLOW...SUGGESTING A CAP STILL IN PLACE. THE
NAM/GFS/EC KEEP THIS AREA QUIET...HOWEVER THE NEAR TERM RAP/HRRR IN
AGREEMENT A FEW ISOLD STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST
STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE DEVELOPED. HAVE A DRY FORECAST AT THE
MOMENT...THINKING THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THAT SAID...INVERTED V SOUNDING WEST OF THE DRY
LINE AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG STORM DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE FOLLOWING A COMBINATION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN S DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM A NOCTURNAL LL
JET. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOSE NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA
BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT EAST THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS FOCUSES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
TOMORROW THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
SPEED FROM EARLIER RUNS. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD SUPPORT AND THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN LIFT. MORNING CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL AS CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLY AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FROM SOME STRONG
STORMS. SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHS HOLD IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH COULD STILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E. IN ADDITION...DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THE THETA-E
RIDGE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING ACROSS THE STATE COULD BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA NEBRASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE MOISTURE ON
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED TO PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
PRETTY MUCH LIMIT IT TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN.
FELT COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIMITED NEAR KVTN TO WARRANT
TSRA IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO
FOR 5SM -TSRA BKN080CB FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS FROM
21Z-00Z/27TH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
232 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT PRIMARILY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL DRYING COMMENCES FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WELL DEFINED VORT MAX WHICH WAS INITIALIZED NEAR PHOENIX THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH TO NEAR PRESCOTT AT MID-AFTERNOON. A LINE OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
WIKIEUP NORTH TO PEACH SPRINGS...THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD MT TRUMBULL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS LINE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTHEAST OF WIKIEUP WITH ONE MOHAVE COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT
STATION REPORTING ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH. HRRR HAS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.
THE VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN LINE TO
SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST
CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIGHT AND DO NOT FORESEE THIS CHANGING MUCH
SO DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE
REST OF CLARK COUNTY.
MONSOON MOISTURE THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MORE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BE STRONGLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY.
CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MORE SUNSHINE
AND DRYING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...FINALLY SCOURING OUT MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EFFECTIVELY ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ALONG WITH BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS...THIS WILL YIELD A QUICK
WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL YIELD A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT...LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN
THE OVERALL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO EXIST
TONIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF OUTPUT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z GFS...WHICH IS 24-36 HOURS SLOWER IN
TRAVERSING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THESE DIFFERENCES YIELD A 3-4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AFTER SUNDAY...THEREFORE A BLEND OF BOTH
SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR MAX AND MIN FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM A SOUTH
DIRECTION. HOWEVER THEY MAY SHIFT BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST AT TIMES. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL DROP FROM 15-20K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8-10K FEET OVERNIGHT.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH CIGS IN THE 10-20K FEET RANGE
WILL BE COMMON TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF A KDAG-KTPH LINE. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS LINE AS
WELL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR STORMS BUT
OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. MODELS INDICATED THE
POSSIBILITY IF ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 6-10K FEET OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
126 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH MID WEEK, AND PROVIDE FOR
UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHEAST. LATER IN THE WEEK THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW WILL MAKE ITS MOVE EAST, CONTINUING THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1006 PM EDT MONDAY...EARLIER STRONG THUNDERSTORM WHICH
DEVELOPED VICINITY OF NEWCOMB NY HAS WEAKENED A BIT, BUT IS NOW
OVER THE NY SIDE OF CHAMPLAIN VALLEY NEAR PLATTSBURGH. STILL A
GOOD AMOUNT OF LIGHTNING OCCURRING DESPITE SCANT INSTABILITY AND
IS PRODUCING LOCALIZED OUTFLOW (NORTHERLY GUSTS TO 21 KNOTS
RECENTLY OBSERVED AT BTV AIRPORT). THAT ONGOING THUNDERSTORM WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO,
WITH REMNANT SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE VT SIDE OF THE CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE, ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE
EVIDENT IN COMPOSITE RADAR IMAGERY FROM ALBANY TO EAST OF
BINGHAMTON NY. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THIS RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT WILL SPREAD NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN VT AND
SOUTHERN CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
SLOWS/STALLS.
POPS STILL GENERALLY ON TRACK, SO NO CHANGES TO POPS OR WX WITH
THIS UPDATE. UPDATED THE FORECAST WITH CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL DATA.
LOWS 50S TO MID 60S, WARMEST IN VT WITH GREATER CLOUD COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 358 PM EDT MONDAY...
THE FRONT REMAINS IN EASTERN VERMONT TUESDAY BEFORE EVENTUALLY
MOVING EAST INTO NH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATING THERE
WILL STILL BE SOME INSTABILITY OF 500-1000 J/KG CAPE EAST OF THE
GREEN MOUNTAINS SO KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THERE DECREASING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FURTHER WEST. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE MAY BE
SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER LAKE ONTARIO AS
COOLER AIR MOVES OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE LAKE. THESE SHOWERS
WILL BE MAINLY IN SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ST. LAWRENCE COUNTY AND
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. LOW TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
COOLER WEATHER EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL AIR ALOFT. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHS IN THE 70S. LOWS
IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 405 PM EDT MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUS...HAVE GONE WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. ON MONDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE AND
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER. THE GFS MODEL ON MONDAY SHOWING WESTERLIES
OVER THE REGION ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW FOR
MONDAY...SO HAVE JUST GONE WITH SUPER-BLEND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON
MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS, AND AN OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM, CONTINUE TO EMERGE ALONG SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL VERMONT INTO THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
AND CATSKILLS. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO AFFECT TERMINALS AT
KMPV AND KRUT. ANY IMPACTS WILL BE BRIEF AT THE TERMINALS.
GENERALLY LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AT 040-080 SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG
FORMATION, WITH EXCEPTION OF BRIEF CLEARING AT KSLK WITH
INTERMITTENT MVFR VISIBILITIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY, MAINLY ACROSS ERN VT AND EXPECTED TO AFFECT KMPV AND
POSSIBLY KRUT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SW 5-8 KTS. AFTER
SUNSET...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VRB AT LESS THAN 5KTS WITH
SOME CLEARING SETTLING IN INTO THE EVENING AS SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE.
OUTLOOK 06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS WITH SLOW MOVING FRONT AND UPPER LOW OVER CANADA IN THE
VICINITY. COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MOST FOCUSED DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
00Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SISSON
NEAR TERM...LOCONTO/SISSON
SHORT TERM...SISSON
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...KGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
255 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT LINGER JUST
OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND PRIMARY HRRR MODEL. WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY HAS
PUSHED INTO COASTAL PLAIN WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
WEAK SHRT WV ENERGY TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS GENERALLY ALONG HWY 17. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS ACTIVITY...AND INDICATES ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NE AND
E THROUGH MID AFTN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR COAST AND
ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD EVENING. PW AROUND 2 INCHES AND SLOW-
MOVING CELLS SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING AND
POSSIBLY BACK-BUILDING MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE AN EASTWARD MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH 850
MB DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS AND PW VALUES AROUND 2" AND MEAN
1000-5000 MB RH AOA 70%. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNSET BEACH AND SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE HIGH PW VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH HEATING AND
THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND
POSSIBLE TRAINING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
EVENING BUT WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL NEED TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. LOWS INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MID 70S BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT EAST INTO NC BY THURSDAY THEN DE-
AMPLIFYING AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA
BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND STALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE AREAS OF EASTERN NC POSITIONED IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND
RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOIST SOILS, A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ARE ALL POINTING TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS. ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROVE DIFFICULT TO MIX
OUT IN THE MORNING GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW. SO ANTICIPATE IT MAY
LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COASTAL TERMINALS HAVING BETTER
CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX BUT NO CHANGES
TO WINDS/SEAS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY FLOW /10
KT OR LESS/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE WEAK GRADIENT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SWELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
E/NE WINDS INCREASE SOME FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AROUND 10 TO
15 KT, AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY
EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/LEP
MARINE...JME/JBM/DAG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
124 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TODAY THEN WILL STALL
OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BUT LINGER JUST
OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...UPDATED TO ADJUST POPS BASED ON LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND PRIMARIY HRRR MODEL. WEAK FRONTAL BNDRY HAS
PUSHED INTO COASTAL PLAIN WITH SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
WEAK SHRT WV ENERGY TO PRODUCE SCT-BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS GENERALLY ALONG HWY 17. LATEST HRRR MODEL HAS GOOD HANDLE ON
THIS ACTIVITY...AND INDICATES ACTIVITY GRADUALLY DEVELOPING NE AND
E THROUGH MID AFTN WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR COAST AND
ACROSS COASTAL PLAINS TOWARD EVENING. PW AROUND 2 INCHES AND
SLOW-MOVING CELLS SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND TRAINING AND
POSSIBLY BACK-BUILDING MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US THROUGH MID WEEK. AT THE SURFACE AN EASTWARD MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NC. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN NC THIS AFTERNOON THEN STALL ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN WITH 850
MB DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TEENS AND PW VALUES AROUND 2" AND MEAN
1000-5000 MB RH AOA 70%. THIS HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN CONJUNCTION
WITH FRONTAL LIFT AND WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME
SUPPORT FOR SOME ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND RADAR
INDICATED A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR SUNSET BEACH AND SOME
LIGHTER RETURNS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE HIGH PW VALUES SHOULD
SUPPORT THE FORMATION OF CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH HEATING AND
THIS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES SOME. THE MAIN CONVECTIVE THREAT
TODAY WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO SLOW CELL MOVEMENT AND
POSSIBLE TRAINING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM TUESDAY...THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOULD BE IN THE
EVENING BUT WITH THE STALLED FRONT OVER THE AREA WILL NEED TO KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE NIGHT. LOWS INLAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AND MID 70S BEACHES.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT EAST INTO NC BY THURSDAY THEN DE-
AMPLIFYING AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND STALL LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
CHANCE POPS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY WHEN MODEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN NC. UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH COASTAL AND OFFSHORE AREAS OF EASTERN NC POSITIONED IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND HAVE CONTINUED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS COASTAL SECTIONS.
THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND
RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OUTSIDE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOIST SOILS, A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING ARE ALL POINTING TO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT THAN WE HAVE SEEN THE PREVIOUS FEW
NIGHTS. ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO PROVE DIFFICULT TO MIX
OUT IN THE MORNING GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW. SO ANTICIPATE IT MAY
LINGER AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE. FLOW WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE FOR ALL
TERMINALS WITH ASSOCIATED SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT SHIFTS THROUGH THE REGION. THE FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COASTAL TERMINALS HAVING BETTER
CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA BRINGING REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS/WX BUT NO CHANGES
TO WINDS/SEAS.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...LIGHT WESTERLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY FLOW /10
KT OR LESS/ WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE NC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT IN THE WEAK GRADIENT AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 2 TO 3
FT THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SWELL.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE EASTERN NC
COASTAL WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING, THEN LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH
FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. E/NE
WINDS INCREASE SOME FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AROUND 10 TO 15
KT, AS GRADIENTS TIGHTEN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME/JBM
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...LEP/SK
MARINE...JME/JBM/SK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
942 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.
WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.
MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
645 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.
WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.
MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL IMPACT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO UNDER 8 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
344 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ROTATE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE ERIE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY THEN SETTLE OVER
VIRGINIA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE UP THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND DISSIPATE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/... THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF
WEAK TROUGHS IS MOVING SE ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANOTHER EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR LAKE ERIE BY 00Z THIS EVENING. 850 MB TEMPS WILL STAY COOL
ENOUGH TODAY TO ALLOW FOR SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA. THE TROUGHS WILL
ACT A FOCUSING MECHANISMS FOR MORE CONCENTRATED BANDS OF SHRA. THE
ONLY MODEL THAT SHOW ANY RAIN OUTSIDE OF THE SNOWBELT AREA IS THE
HRRR BUT THATS NOT UNEXPECTED SINCE THE HRRR CAN GENERATE PRECIP
FROM ANY PARTLY CLOUDY SITUATION. CURRENT FORECAST POPS LOOK
REASONABLE SO LITTLE TO CHANGE.
MORE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS TODAY WILL ONLY ALLOW HIGHS TO GET BACK INTO
A 67 TO 72 DEGREE RANGE WITH THE COOLER READINGS IN THE EAST PART OF
THE SNOWBELT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... THE NEXT WEAK
TROUGH SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. BETTER MOISTURE WILL
BE IN PLACE IN THE LOWER LEVELS SO THE THREAT FOR LIGHT
SHRA/SPRINKLE SHOULD SPREAD OUT A LITTLE MORE OUTSIDE OF THE
SNOWBELT AND THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE THRU WED AS THE AXIS OF THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVES SE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH SUNSET WED EVE...THE
THREAT FOR SHRA SHOULD RETREAT INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE SNOWBELT
AND CONTINUE TO SHRINK THRU THU AS HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY MOVES OVER
THE AREA. THE HIGH SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT THRU FRI
NIGHT.
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THRU THU NIGHT THEN START TO
MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEK. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS AN UPPER TROUGH THAT IS PROGGED TO
DRIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THIS FEATURE.
THE SURFACE PROGS ON THE MODELS LOOK AS THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL DROP ACROSS ONTARIO AND NEW ENGLAND WHILE A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL START OUT QUITE STABLE AND
DRY AND IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN THINGS UP. WILL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO ON
SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. NOT SURE IF THE SYSTEM WILL BE GONE ON
MONDAY OR NOT.
TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT. TEMPERATURES
MAY BE SUPPRESSED SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BUT THE TREND WILL BE UPWARD. HIGHS
SHOULD BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND ESPECIALLY INTO NEXT WEEK.
SUMMER IS NOT OVER YET.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP ACROSS LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY NOT SEE MUCH
MORE THAN A SPRINKLE EXCEPT ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND
NORTHWEST PA WHERE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITY DURING THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TODAY. A
FEW LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS COULD LINGER EXTREME NE OH/NW PA ANYTIME
TODAY BUT THE SHOWERS WILL BE MORE LIKELY AGAIN EARLY TONIGHT (TUE
NIGHT) AS THE NEXT SURFACE TROUGH DROPS ACROSS LAKE ERIE IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR POSSIBLE EXTREME NORTHEAST OH AND NORTHWEST PA
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE... JUST ENOUGH WIND IS LIKELY ON LAKE ERIE TODAY TO KEEP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM THE ISLANDS EAST. THE GRADIENT
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY BUT THE FAVORABLE WIND DIRECTION FROM
THE WEST SOUTHWEST AND THE COLD ADVECTION SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP
THE WAVES UP AROUND 3 TO 4 FEET MUCH OF THE DAY ON THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN BASIN.
THE NEXT TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE WIND
MAY INCREASE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH
BUT THE OVERALL WIND SPEEDS MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR ENOUGH
DURATION FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. IT WILL BE CLOSE THOUGH AND
SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AND THE WEATHER. A
WATERSPOUT IS POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYTIME INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
TROUGH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES BY THURSDAY AND
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST AND VEER MORE NORTHERLY. THE
FLOW SHOULD COME AROUND FROM THE SOUTH BY FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE COULD CAUSE A LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP FOR A WHILE THIS WEEKEND BUT WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ144>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142-143.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADAMS
NEAR TERM...ADAMS
SHORT TERM...ADAMS
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...KOSARIK
MARINE...KOSARIK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.AVIATION...
THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF DRT MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE
COULD MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT AND REDUCE VIS TO MVFR...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY
AROUND 03Z. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS FORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THE LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND BARELY BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO
ONLY A FEW SPOTS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR DOWNDRAFT WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIE BY SUNSET. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES A BIT WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A RESULTING DROP IN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. EARLY
MORNINGS WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT AFTERNOONS
STILL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA TO PRODUCE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. GULF MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...AND HENCE BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT OF COVERAGE...SO AT THIS TIME WE WILL
KEEP POPS LOW. LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO
NEAR NORMAL...LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND LOWS
AROUND 70...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 99 73 99 72 / - - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 98 70 97 69 / - - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 99 72 98 70 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 71 97 71 / - - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 73 101 72 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 72 98 72 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 70 98 69 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 71 97 70 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 97 71 97 70 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 98 73 97 72 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 72 99 71 / - - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...09
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
PLEASE SEE THE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MOST ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU. GIVEN WE ONLY
ANTICIPATED ISOLATED COVERAGE...WE/LL NOT MENTION IN ANY OF OUR
TAF SITES TODAY. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
EAST-SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS
TRANSITION TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION ALONG THE I-35
CORRIDOR...EXCEPT EASTERLY AT DRT. CAN/T COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME
SCT LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...BUT GIVEN SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE
LOW-LEVELS...SUSPECT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED. FOR NOW...WE/LL
CONTINUE TO MENTION VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
UPDATE...
IT/S TOUGH TO FIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT ONCE MIXING COMMENCES WE EXPECT IT TO LIE ROUGHLY
ALONG I-10 NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO AND ALONG 1-37 SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO. RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 19-20Z...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING/PROPAGATING
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO RE-TREND HOURLY
VARIABLES THOUGH 00Z...BUT THE MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT IS TO RE-
ORIENT POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK WESTWARD
TODAY AND WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING PRETTY DRY AIR EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...TO THE WEST...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME CONVECTION BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S OR BY JUST AFTER NOON. HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN THE COVERAGE BUT EVEN THE
MORE ROBUST OUTCOMES ARE SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED CELLS FIRING WEST
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES WEST. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS
THAT WILL PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF ANY UPDRAFTS TODAY BUT
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN ABOVE 700 MB...THERE PROBABLY WONT BE
ENOUGH PRECIP GENERATED FOR SIGNIFICANT DOWNBURST WINDS.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY BUT WITH SOME WELCOME DRYNESS
AS DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND LOWER 60S UP NORTH. SHOULD RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WALTZ
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE RIDGE CENTER FARTHER WESTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE
COAST TO CREEP ONSHORE AND UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEEMS THIS OUTCOME IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF. DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD OVER THE
WEEKEND...VERY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL NORTHWEST
INTO OUR CWA. WITH A COUPLE DAYS OF THIS OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS.
WHAT THIS MEANS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND MOST
NOTABLY...A DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...MEX HIGHS FOR THE PLATEAU MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 90 BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WOULDNT THAT JUST BE SWELL?
BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING RIDGING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS
CENTRAL TEXAS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 72 98 73 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 69 96 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 99 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 97 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 101 73 100 / 20 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 71 97 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 98 69 98 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 97 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 69 97 71 97 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 75 97 73 97 / 20 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 99 72 98 / 20 - 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT HANDLED WELL THE EVOLUTION OF
THE CUMULUS FIELD AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY WHICH HAS BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. AS SUCH PATTERN RECOGNITION...WHICH IS IN MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT...IS USED PARTICULARLY THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL HIGH
CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA YIELDING A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THIS WILL TREND NORTHEASTERLY AND PROVIDE FOR DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES. ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED AND TAPER OFF NEAR SUNSET. GIVEN PLENTIFUL
INSTABILITY...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE THREAT. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE AND NO WIDESPREAD THREAT IS EXPECTED ATTM.
.LONG TERM...
THE ONLY RIPPLE WORTH NOTING IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A
SHORT WAVE AT 500MB ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE WILL
DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND MOVE OUT ONTO THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY.
EFFECTS FOR THE SOUTH PLAINS WILL NOT BE TOO NOTICEABLE. THERE IS
ONLY A SLIGHT DEFINITION TO THIS SHORT WAVE AT 250MB BUT MOST LIFT
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. WE WILL
MOSTLY BE LEFT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WILL BEND BACK INTO WEST TEXAS ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORT
WAVE. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED WELL WEST OF THE
AREA IN NEW MEXICO. A FAVORABLE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY BE ABLE TO
ADVECT THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INTO THE AREA. EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN
IS THE POSITION OF A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
NONETHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FRONT.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTERLY JOG WITH STRONGER LONG
WAVE TROUGHING ENTERING THE WEST COAST. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN EASTERLY
WAVE TRYING TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. BUT THE POSITION
OF THE RIDGE MAY BE ABLE TO BRING BACK SOME MONSOONAL TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 63 90 65 93 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 63 90 66 94 / 10 0 0 10
PLAINVIEW 64 90 66 94 / 10 0 0 10
LEVELLAND 64 90 66 94 / 10 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 66 92 68 96 / 10 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 65 91 67 94 / 10 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 65 91 68 95 / 10 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 71 95 72 100 / 10 0 0 0
SPUR 67 94 70 98 / 10 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 69 97 72 101 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/01
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.
For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.
Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.
Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 73 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 68 95 67 95 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 73 101 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 70 95 71 97 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 68 93 67 93 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA TX 58 89 59 89 / 10 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 96 71 98 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 72 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
WINK TX 72 99 72 100 / 10 10 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/70
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
ACTIVE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS RESULTING IN ISO STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
STORMS ARE MULTICELL/PULSE STORMS SO INTENSITIES WILL VARY. HAVE
PUT INT VCTS/TSRA FOR ALL TERMINALS AS ALL SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY
THIS LINE OF STORMS. LATEST 15Z/16Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD
EVOLUTION ALTHOUGH 1-2HRS BEHIND REALITY. OTHERWISE HRRR PROVIDING
GOOD GUIDANCE ON EVOLUTION AND TIMING FOR TAFS. CONVECTION SHOULD
BE ENDING 22-00Z THIS EVENING AS STORMS PUSH INTO THE GULF. EXPECT
THERE TO BE VFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND MAYBE SOME GROUND FOG IN RURAL
TERMINALS LIKE KCXO.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /
DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(AND ITS OUTFLOWS) THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT FCST WITH THIS UPDATE
AS WE SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH POPS/TEMPS. 41
PREV DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENERGY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SLIDING DOWN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
NORTHEASTERN CONVECTION...WILL BE ENTERING OUR HEATED AND STILL
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (~2 INCH PWS) FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
PROGGED BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMICS ARE RIPE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG...TO BORDERLINE SEVERE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
INVERTED-V NATURE TO SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF A WIND THREAT.
ALTHOUGH OF NOT MUCH USE OF LATE...SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING THAT HAS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT DECENTLY THIS MORNING
.SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO SOME DEGREE...DEVELOP MID-
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND SWATH STORM
CLUSTERS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERING WE
ARE WITHIN AN UNWORKED OVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY REACHING OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE BEST HEAT-OF-THE DAY
TIME FRAME POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE...WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE BAIT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO
AND TAKE POPS UP TO MODERATE CHANCE.
REGION REMAINS WITHIN THIS NORTHERN FLOW PATTERN AT MID-WEEK WITH
THE COOLEST MID-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD OFF FROM ADVECTING IN UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY...OR ONCE WINDS VEER MORE AROUND TO THE EAST. ONCE THIS
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION WANES...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN
DRY PER THE SLOW EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ASSERTING ITS
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL
SPELL SUBSEQUENT DAILY HOT CONDITIONS. LESSENED HUMIDITY WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE CERTAINLY
FELT IN THE EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...OVERNIGHT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOW 60S IN THE NOTORIOUS COOL SPOTS. DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR INTERIOR
AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES STICKING CLOSE
TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
DESERT SW RIDGING BEGINS TO SCOOT A BIT WEST AND TAP INTO A RELATIVELY
HIGHER NEAR 1.5 INCH AIR MASS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 74 95 68 98 / 40 30 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 100 74 95 69 96 / 70 30 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 90 81 90 78 92 / 50 50 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...41
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1127 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
(AND ITS OUTFLOWS) THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES INTO NRN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH THE CURRENT FCST WITH THIS UPDATE
AS WE SEEM TO BE ON TRACK WITH POPS/TEMPS. 41
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENERGY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SLIDING DOWN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
NORTHEASTERN CONVECTION...WILL BE ENTERING OUR HEATED AND STILL
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT (~2 INCH PWS) FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
PROGGED BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMICS ARE RIPE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG...TO BORDERLINE SEVERE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
INVERTED-V NATURE TO SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF A WIND THREAT.
ALTHOUGH OF NOT MUCH USE OF LATE...SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING THAT HAS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT DECENTLY THIS MORNING
..SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO SOME DEGREE...DEVELOP MID-
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND SWATH STORM
CLUSTERS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERING WE
ARE WITHIN AN UNWORKED OVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY REACHING OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE BEST HEAT-OF-THE DAY
TIME FRAME POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE...WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE BAIT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO
AND TAKE POPS UP TO MODERATE CHANCE.
REGION REMAINS WITHIN THIS NORTHERN FLOW PATTERN AT MID-WEEK WITH
THE COOLEST MID-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD OFF FROM ADVECTING IN UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY...OR ONCE WINDS VEER MORE AROUND TO THE EAST. ONCE THIS
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION WANES...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN
DRY PER THE SLOW EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ASSERTING ITS
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL
SPELL SUBSEQUENT DAILY HOT CONDITIONS. LESSENED HUMIDITY WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE CERTAINLY
FELT IN THE EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...OVERNIGHT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOW 60S IN THE NOTORIOUS COOL SPOTS. DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR INTERIOR
AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES STICKING CLOSE
TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
DESERT SW RIDGING BEGINS TO SCOOT A BIT WEST AND TAP INTO A RELATIVELY
HIGHER NEAR 1.5 INCH AIR MASS. 31
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 74 95 68 98 68 / 20 10 10 0 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 74 95 69 96 71 / 20 10 10 0 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 81 90 78 92 80 / 20 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1051 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.UPDATE...COMPLEX OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING INTO EAST TEXAS. AN ASSOCIATED
OUTFLOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE COMPLEX
STRETCHES ALONG ROUGHLY A HILLSBORO TO MADISONVILLE LINE...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
INITIALIZATION BY SEVERAL MODELS WAS POOR...BUT LATEST FEW RUNS
OF THE HRRR APPEARS TO BE TRENDING BETTER. AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...AND WITH FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY DROPPING SOUTHWEST...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING NORTH OF A FREDERICKSBURG
TO SAN MARCOS TO LA GRANGE LINE...BETWEEN 1 AND 3 PM AS DEPICTED
BY HRRR. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID IN PUSHING THE
BOUNDARY SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...SOUTH OF
I-10.
BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS...WITH
FORECAST DCAPE VALUES OF 1300-1500 J/KG...CURRENTLY HANDLED AND
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
AVIATION... /12Z TAF UPDATE/
TAF SITES SHOULD SEE VFR SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR A FEW
AREAS WITH VSBY RESTRICTIONS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATER STORM
IMPACTS MAY BE GUSTY WINDS THAT COULD EXCEED 30 KNOTS IN SOME
CASES. HI-RES MODELS TIME THE AREA OF CONVECTION FASTER THAN THE
SYNOPTIC MODELS...AND THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER NE TX WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THIS TIMING IS BETTER. COLLECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM THE
CONVECTION SHOULD LEAVE LIGHT WINDS AND LIMITED CLOUDS IN LOW
LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THIS ASSUMES THAT MOST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SPORADIC AND WELL BELOW 1/2 INCH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG A ROCKIES INTO TEXAS AXIS SHIFTS TO
A CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AXIS BY WEDNESDAY AS A
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS
ALLOWS A POOL OF DEEPER MOISTURE WITH PWS OF 1.5 TO 1.9 INCHES
ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE OVER NORTHERN TEXAS TO DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON DAYTIME HEATING OVER NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS MORNING. THEY THEN SPREAD TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROVIDE THE UPWARD FORCING FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATE
STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. HIGH PWS INDICATE LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO ONE INCH OR SO ARE POSSIBLE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WANE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AFTER
SUNSET AND SHOULD BE GONE BY MIDNIGHT. THE POOL OF MOISTURE BEGINS
TO DRY FROM THE NORTHEAST AS IT DRIFTS TO THE WEST OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. EACH OF MODELS APPEARS TO FAVOR A
DIFFERENT AREA FOR QPF AND HAVE BROADBRUSHED THE SLIGHT CHANCES.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS TO A SOUTHWESTERN STATES INTO
WESTERN TEXAS AXIS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDES OVER THE TOP OF IT INTO THE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN STATES. THE POOL OF MOISTURE MOVES OFF TO THE WEST INTO
MEXICO WITH PWS FALLING TO AN INCH OR LESS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INVERTED TROUGH PER GFS AND UPPER
LOW PER ECMWF ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TO THE WEST INTO
TEXAS BY MONDAY. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL INCREASE LEADING TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS ON
MONDAY. BEYOND THIS FORECAST...THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
DETERMINE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 100 75 98 73 98 / 30 20 20 - 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 73 96 70 97 / 30 20 20 - 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 74 99 72 99 / 30 20 20 - 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 97 73 96 72 97 / 30 20 20 - 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 76 101 77 101 / 20 20 20 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 97 71 97 / 30 20 20 - 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 73 99 72 98 / 20 20 20 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 74 97 72 97 / 30 20 20 - 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 74 96 71 97 / 30 20 20 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 76 99 74 98 / 30 20 20 - 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 99 73 99 / 30 20 20 - 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...COR
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.DISCUSSION...
NORTHWESTERN FLOW PATTERN SET UP OVER TEXAS WITH THE 5H RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. ENERGY OVER THE RED RIVER
VALLEY SLIDING DOWN WITHIN THIS FLOW IS BEGINNING TO FIRE EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION JUST SOUTH OF THE RIVER IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
STATE. A WEAK COLD FRONT...OR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PROPAGATING FROM
NORTHEASTERN CONVECTION...WILL BE ENTERING OUR HEATED AND STILL VERY
MOIST ENVIRONMENT (~2 INCH PWS) FROM LATE MORNING ONWARD. THE
PROGGED BACKGROUND THERMODYNAMICS ARE RIPE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
STRONG...TO BORDERLINE SEVERE...AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
INVERTED-V NATURE TO SOUNDINGS INDICATIVE OF A WIND THREAT.
ALTHOUGH OF NOT MUCH USE OF LATE...SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELING THAT HAS INITIALIZED SOMEWHAT DECENTLY THIS MORNING
...SUCH AS THE HRRR AND NAM12 TO SOME DEGREE...DEVELOP MID-
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CWA AND SWATH STORM
CLUSTERS NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DOWN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. CONSIDERING WE
ARE WITHIN AN UNWORKED OVER...UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH AN APPROACHING
BOUNDARY REACHING OUR DOORSTEP DURING THE BEST HEAT-OF-THE DAY
TIME FRAME POSSIBLY INTERACTING WITH A NORTHERN ADVANCING SEA
BREEZE...WILL GO AHEAD AND TAKE THE BAIT WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO
AND TAKE POPS UP TO MODERATE CHANCE.
REGION REMAINS WITHIN THIS NORTHERN FLOW PATTERN AT MID-WEEK WITH
THE COOLEST MID-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD OFF FROM ADVECTING IN UNTIL LATE
WEDNESDAY...OR ONCE WINDS VEER MORE AROUND TO THE EAST. ONCE THIS
EVENING`S PRECIPITATION WANES...THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL REMAIN
DRY PER THE SLOW EASTERN MOVEMENT OF THE WESTERN RIDGE ASSERTING ITS
SUBSIDENT INFLUENCE OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH RETURN FLOW LATE IN THE WORK WEEK WILL
SPELL SUBSEQUENT DAILY HOT CONDITIONS. LESSENED HUMIDITY WITH THE
ADVECTION OF A MUCH DRIER NORTHEASTERN AIR MASS THAT WILL BE CERTAINLY
FELT IN THE EARLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING HOURS...OVERNIGHT
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE AVERAGE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH
LOW 60S IN THE NOTORIOUS COOL SPOTS. DRY AIR WILL MAKE FOR INTERIOR
AFTERNOON HEAT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES STICKING CLOSE
TO AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AND ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTURY MARK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
TO CLIMB FROM SUNDAY ONWARD AS A MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TROUGH DOWNSTREAM OF
DESERT SW RIDGING BEGINS TO SCOOT A BIT WEST AND TAP INTO A RELATIVELY
HIGHER NEAR 1.5 INCH AIR MASS. 31
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN EAST TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA...ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE...COULD PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SCT TSTMS TODAY. WINDS/SEAS HIGHER IN AND NEAR STORMS. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH INTO THE WATERS TONIGHT WITH ENE WINDS IN ITS WAKE.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE SE THURS NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
SOMEWHAT OF A LOW CONFIDENCE FCST GIVEN WIDE VARIETY OF GUIDANCE.
MAIN FCST ISSUE WILL BE TSTM POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON TSTMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN N/NE TX AS THESE COULD EXPAND SSE
ALONG A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS E TX/LA WITH DAYTIME
HEATING...EVENTUALLY SAGGING INTO SE TX. CONVECTIVE TEMPS SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 92-95 & THINK MAIN THREAT PERIOD FOR AREA TAFS WILL BE
18-24Z. ATMOS PROFILE SUGGESTS STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT CELLS. METRO AIRPORTS WILL ALSO NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON
SEA BREEZE POSITION...AS POTENTIAL COLLISIONS BETWEEN INCOMING
STORMS AND THIS FEATURE AND/OR ASSOCIATED PRECIP WILL FURTHER
ENHANCE STORM STRENGTH. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY - WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
VCTS`S GOING IN THE 12Z PACKAGE AND AMEND WHEN NEEDED. OUTSIDE ANY
TSTMS...ANTICIPATE MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 98 74 95 68 98 / 40 20 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 98 74 95 69 96 / 40 20 10 10 0
GALVESTON (GLS) 91 81 90 78 92 / 30 20 10 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...31/47
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1138 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Thunderstorms south of San Angelo were rapidly weakening at 0430Z
and should dissipate by 6Z. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are again possible Tuesday afternoon and evening,
and added VCTS to all West Central Texas terminals. Strong winds
in excess of 40 KTS and IFR visibilities in heavy rain are
possible if a strong storm moves over a terminal. Outside of the
thunderstorms VFR conditions expected with wind speeds less than
10 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
A thunderstorm outflow boundary approaching KABI from the east
will bring east wind gusts to 18 KTS 00Z to 1Z. Also added VCTS
to KABI as a few storms may develop off the outflow boundary.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible again Tuesday
afternoon...as a secondary weak cold front moves into the region.
Will leave mention of storms out of terminals at this time, but
coverage may become high enough for mention of VCTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
A weak cold front is stalled generally along a line from near
Barnhart...to Eldorado...to Brady. A cumulus field has developed
this afternoon in the vicinity of the front. The HRRR continues to
depict isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon and early evening.
Uncertainty remains on the extent of convection this afternoon,
but slight chance PoPs were kept for much of the area, with the
best chance across the southern two thirds of the area. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, as very slow movement is
expected. In addition, isolated downbursts will be possible. Most
of the convection is expected to dissipate shortly after sunset,
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows will generally be
in the 70s, although a few locations may drop into the upper 60s.
Models continue to indicate an upper level disturbance moving
across the area Tuesday in the north flow aloft. This in
combination with what is left of the dissipating cold front will
result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon, with the best chance across the eastern half of the
region. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 90s.
Daniels
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)
The extended portion of the forecast will be mainly dry, and
continued hot with temperatures averaging 5 or more degrees above
normal through next weekend.
Decided to keep slight chance PoPs going through Tuesday evening
as a weak front continues to ease southward. The best chances by
Tuesday evening should be generally south of a San Saba to
Eldorado line where the front is expected to move to by the
evening hours. Once again, if these storms develop, the main
hazards will be gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. Have also
kept very low end slight chance PoPs Wednesday afternoon and early
evening as remnant outflow boundaries possibly left behind by
Tuesday`s activity could result in isolated showers or storms
Wednesday afternoon.
From Thursday through the weekend, the upper level ridge over the
southwestern U. S. will keep our weather hot and dry. Have
nudged afternoon highs up a degree or two for the second half of
the week as the ridge takes control, allowing the atmosphere to
warm. Another cold front could possibly move into the area next
weekend, but models show it struggling to make progress southward
after reaching west central Texas, so will just trend temperatures
downward a couple degrees next weekend into Monday for now.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 95 72 97 / 10 20 10 5
San Angelo 72 98 71 100 / 20 20 10 10
Junction 71 97 70 98 / 20 30 20 20
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
99/99/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
839 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
CLOUD DECK WILL FINALLY CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE AROUND 930 PM...WITH ONLY A FEW CIRRUS STREAMERS AND SMOKE
FROM THE WESTERN U.S. WILDFIRES TOPPING THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
DRIFTING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING
SKIES WITH HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING OVER THE STATE BRING THE PROSPECT
OF FOG OVERNIGHT. THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE BELOW
CURRENT FORECAST LOWS. WITH THE HRRR FORECAST VISIBILITIES NO
LOWER THAN 5-6 MILES AND THE 21Z SREF PROBABILITIES OF VSBYS BELOW
3 MILES AT 30 PCT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS...WILL HAVE PATCHY FOG
FOR THE RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
MVFR/VFR CLOUD DECK WILL CLEAR THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
STATE BY 0230Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP
AFTER 06Z...BUT WILL ONLY PUT IN 4SM BR AT KENW FOR NOW SINCE THE
PROBABILITIES SHOW IT AS THE ONLY TAF LOCATION LIKELY TO GO BELOW
6 MILES. SOME DIURNAL CU EXPECTED THURSDAY...BUT EVEN THE MORE
MOIST 18Z NAM ONLY INDICATING SCATTERED COVERAGE...WITH MAYBE A
BRIEF PERIOD OR TWO OF BROKEN IN THE FAR EAST LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON UNTIL THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE LAKE BREEZE KICK IN.
WILL AWAIT LOOK AT FULL 00Z DATA SET BUT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE 2500 TO 3000 FT RANGE FOR THURSDAY AND
VFR CONDITIONS AFTER ANY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST. THE STUBBORN LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
FINALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO SOUTHERN WI. I AM
LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT MILWAUKEE AREA COMPLETELY CLEARING OUT. MIN
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S DUE TO THE CLEARING SKIES
EXCEPT A LITTLE WARMER IN THE MILWAUKEE AREA.
LINGERING WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW AND A SHORTWAVE WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS... MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WI.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 70 NEAR THE LAKE TO THE
UPPER 70S WEST OF MADISON.
THURSDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN WILL BE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE OF SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND
MORE CLOUDS WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS IOWA ON FRIDAY AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS OR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY. A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET. MODELS BRING PRECIP IN ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE FRIDAY
MORNING AND HAVE IT ENDING IN THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING. THIS
MORNING`S ECMWF IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE OTHERS WITH THE
TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. KEPT LIKELY POPS FOR FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT
AS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS DURING THIS TIME AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET SLIDES INTO THE REGION. PWS GET UP TO 1.5 INCHES.
MODEL CONSENSUS OF ABOUT 100 J/KG OF CAPE DURING THIS TIME SO WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH.
MID LEVELS START TO DRY OUT SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SETS UP.
IT REMAINS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE WEEK BRINGING WARM AND DRY
WEATHER. 925 TEMPS REACH AROUND 20 C SUNDAY AND GET INTO THE MID 20S
MIDWEEK WHICH MEANS HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
EXTENDED RANGE MODELS SHOW THIS TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN OVER THE
CONTINENTAL U.S. CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
CIGS HAVE FINALLY LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS EXCEPT NEAR WAUKESHA...
WATERTOWN AND WEST BEND. EXPECT THAT AREA TO BECOME VFR BEFORE
SUNSET.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREAS WEST OF SHEBOYGAN... WAUKESHA AND
BURLINGTON TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT. I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT EAST OF
THAT LINE WILL COMPLETELY CLEAR.
EXPECT DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY
MORNING. THEY WILL BE MORE CONCENTRATED IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. LOOK
FOR A LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...REM
TONIGHT/THURSDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...MRC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARQUARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
CHALLENGES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS...
TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT TONIGHT...
BUT OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.
25.20Z SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 25.18Z RAP 1 KM 90 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CONTOUR HAS BEEN A GOOD PROXY TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWS
MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
25.06Z. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NSSL SYNTHETIC
IR...SO EXPECT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS DEEPENING TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY 25.09Z...THINK
SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN LATEST
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 25.12Z...BUT LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...DEEPENING TO NEARLY 6000
FT AGL. FOG POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE A GOOD CHANCE AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY
FOG.
CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE
LATE IN THE EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR. RISING
925 TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
FRIDAY NOW LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY AND WET AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN CONUS 500 HPA RIDGE AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE PRODUCES A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AXIS ALONG ENHANCED 850 TO 700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ARE SIMILAR...MOVING FROM EAST-CENTRAL NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THROUGH THE DAY...THE ECMWF PAINTS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL A BIT FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM WHICH ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO ITS NORTHERN
SOLUTION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK AND WILL CAP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
BEING THE DOMINATE MODE. STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...
FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK
DRY WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
RISING TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS FOLDS OVER ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015
BACK EDGE OF STUBBORN MVFR STRATOCUMULUS CURRENTLY HUGGING THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER...INCLUDING KLSE AND POINTS EAST. LOOK FOR THIS
FIELD OF STRATOCUMULUS TO ERODE EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
WITH KLSE SCATTERING OUT AROUND 20Z. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE BY EVENING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WITH DECENT DECOUPLING
EXPECTED IN THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AS A
RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT ON THE
MISSISSIPPI CHANNEL GIVEN LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE FOG WILL ACTUALLY SET UP AT KLSE. FOR
NOW...WENT WITH P6SM BCFG AT KLSE IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME AND
WILL LET THE EVENING FORECASTER ASSESS FURTHER. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH
TOMORROW.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...DAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
440 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF STRONG TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. NONE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS
CONVECTION. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY OVERTURNED. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLLETON AND CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTS...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR FLOODING. FARTHER
INLAND...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OOZING IN FROM
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. NAM12 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SHOW AREAS FROM WALTERBORO TO MONCKS CORNER HAVING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES...BUT ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPIES THAT ARE IN
PLACE.
TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS BUCKLED BACK INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS SHOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
RIBBON OF HIGHER 850-700 HPA THETA-E AIR NUDGES WEST. THIS
COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE INDUCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RAP AND NSSL-WRF APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY...BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED. WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP REGIME FOR TODAY WITH
THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS PLACED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTH
CHARLESTON-HENDERSONVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-GLENNVILLE LINE. THIS
INCLUDES BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. INITIALLY
THE AIRMASS WEST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS MID-LEVEL THETA-E INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT
WELL INLAND FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INLAND WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW
STRONG TSTMS BEING POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WILL NEED TO KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND WITH UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT UPPER LEVELS....THE REGION WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AND A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WENT
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE FATE OF ERIKA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATER MONDAY...THEN MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ERIKA IN OUR AREA
DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.
HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE FOR NOW ON
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN ASSUMING ERIKA
MOVES WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SUPPORT FOG AT EITHER
TERMINAL AND IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS WORK ITS WAY INTO KCHS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT THE
BULK SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. TSTM
ACTIVITY EAST OF KSAV WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT MAY
MAKE A RUN AT KCHS AFTER 09Z. WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR NOW THERE
FROM 09-12Z WITH BRIEF CIGS DROPPING TO BKN015. EXPECT VFR
OTHERWISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AS
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS INLAND FROM THE COAST. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
AT EITHER TERMINAL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 12Z UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TIMEFRAME CAN BE
ESTABLISHED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT VFR TO
DOMINATE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK...THE FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE LATEST TRACK FROM NHC BRINGS ERIKA TOWARD
OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS... ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ASSUMING THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME OF CLOSEST
APPROACH OF ERIKA. ALSO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE ERIKA TRACKS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES
HOLD. SPEEDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS
COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY
RAIN.
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND
VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5
FEET. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...VEERING
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS ERIKA APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER
TUESDAY. HAVE STARTED TO TREND WINDS AND SEAS UP BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPED WINDS AT 30 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS 10-15 FEET...MAINLY OFFSHORE.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS COULD PEAK
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WITH THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE...IT IS POSSIBLE TIDES MAY FALL
JUST SHORT AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN
THIS KIND OF REGIME. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD
STILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. TRENDS SUGGEST TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
FORT PULASKI AND THE GEORGIA COAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITHOUT ANY EFFECTS FROM
ERIKA...EXTRA- TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES REACHING MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS DURING THE MAJOR HIGH TIDES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TO
INCREASE TIDE LEVELS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR PUSHING TIDE
LEVELS HIGHER...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA
HOLDS...WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE
TIDES ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/RFM
...PRELIMINARY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...AN IMPRESSIVE BAND OF STRONG TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED
ALONG AND JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. NONE OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS PICKED UP ON THIS
CONVECTION. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WIND DOWN AS SUNRISE
APPROACHES AND THE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BECOMES
INCREASINGLY OVERTURNED. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR HEAVY RAIN
THROUGH SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COLLETON AND CHARLESTON
COUNTY COASTS...ALONG WITH A RISK FOR FLOODING. FARTHER
INLAND...WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG OOZING IN FROM
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS. NAM12 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS SHOW AREAS FROM WALTERBORO TO MONCKS CORNER HAVING THE
BEST CHANCES FOR LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES...BUT ANY FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE MID/HIGH CLOUD CANOPIES THAT ARE IN
PLACE.
TODAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS BUCKLED BACK INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADING INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS SHOW THE
STATIONARY FRONT ESSENTIALLY BISECTING SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
RIBBON OF HIGHER 850-700 HPA THETA-E AIR NUDGES WEST. THIS
COUPLED WITH UPPER DIFLUENCE INDUCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION
OF A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT
WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RAP AND NSSL-WRF APPEAR
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
TODAY...BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY SOME TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL
DIFFERENCES NOTED. WILL GO WITH A 30-50 POP REGIME FOR TODAY WITH
THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS PLACED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTH
CHARLESTON-HENDERSONVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-GLENNVILLE LINE. THIS
INCLUDES BOTH THE CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. INITIALLY
THE AIRMASS WEST OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
DEEP CONVECTION...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
AS MID-LEVEL THETA-E INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT
WELL INLAND FOR NOW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S INLAND WITH COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES. THE PRIMARY
HAZARD FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW
STRONG TSTMS BEING POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WILL NEED TO KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND WITH UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY...TO BE ISSUED.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER TO SUPPORT FOG AT EITHER
TERMINAL AND IT HAS BEEN REMOVED FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE. COULD SEE
SOME STRATUS WORK ITS WAY INTO KCHS PRIOR TO SUNRISE...BUT THE
BULK SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL. TSTM
ACTIVITY EAST OF KSAV WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL...BUT MAY
MAKE A RUN AT KCHS AFTER 09Z. WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR NOW THERE
FROM 09-12Z WITH BRIEF CIGS DROPPING TO BKN015. EXPECT VFR
OTHERWISE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE REGION TODAY AS
A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS INLAND FROM THE COAST. THERE ARE LARGE
DISCREPANCIES OF WHEN THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR IMPACTS WILL OCCUR
AT EITHER TERMINAL. WILL THEREFORE LEAVE MENTION OF TSRA OUT OF
BOTH TERMINALS AFTER 12Z UNTIL A MORE DEFINITIVE TIMEFRAME CAN BE
ESTABLISHED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...TO BE ISSUED.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES
HOLD. SPEEDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS
COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY
RAIN.
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND
VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN.
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...TO BE ISSUED.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS COULD PEAK
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WITH THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE...IT IS POSSIBLE TIDES MAY FALL
JUST SHORT AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN
THIS KIND OF REGIME. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD
STILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. TRENDS SUGGEST TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
FORT PULASKI AND THE GEORGIA COAST.
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TO BE ISSUED.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS RESULTING IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND RATHER COOL
TEMPERATURES. IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS UNDERNEATH THE LARGE FAIR
WEATHER SYSTEM THIS MORNING WITH THE MERCURY ALREADY DOWN TO 48
DEGREES HERE AT THE OFFICE IN LINCOLN WITH A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
APPROACHING 50 DEGREES. TEMP-DEW POINT SPREADS DECREASING AS WELL
SO SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ANY
FOG DISSIPATING QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM RAPIDLY THRU THE
MORNING HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SOME CLOUDS DEVELOPING
AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING AS
MUCH CLOUDINESS AS WE SAW YESTERDAY WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES
MORE UNIFORM OVER CENTRAL ILLINOIS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
MID 70S FAR EAST TO AROUND 80 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS
STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE AND MOVES INTO THE REGION. WAVE IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND IS SLIDING THROUGH THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST TO BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR PRECIP
FOR FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE DOING BETTER
WITH THE TIMING OF THE WAVE, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BETTER
PRECIP COVERAGE IS STILL BEING CALLED INTO QUESTION. A DRY AIRMASS
OVERALL ON ILX SOUNDINGS IS PART OF THE PROBLEM. ALTHOUGH THE SFC
WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS LIMITED BY LIGHTER WINDS TO THE SOUTH. THE MODELS HAVE
BEEN TRENDING THE WAVE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH IN THE LATEST RUNS AS
WELL. STILL CONCERNED THAT THE PRECIP WILL STILL BE MORE
INTERMITTENT THAN WIDESPREAD ALONG THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WEAKER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GFS AND NAM STARTING TO TREND THAT
WAY, LINGERING THE PRECIP INTO SAT NIGHT AND IN THE EAST FOR EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING.
WAVE MOVING THROUGH EFFECTIVELY SHIFTS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FROM THE SOUTHERN PAC COAST INTO THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...AND RATHER WEAK FLOW ALOFT FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE COUNTRY AFTER THE WEEKEND. HOT TEMPS UNDER THE RIDGE IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS DIFFUSE INTO THE REGION WITH THE PATTERN SHIFT
AND TEMPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE
NORMALS WITH MAX TEMPS APPROACHING THE 90 MARK BEFORE MIDWEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INTRODUCED LOCALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL IL. BMI AND CMI APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG, WITH MVFR FOG FOR DEC, SPI AND
PIA. THE FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS REASONABLE DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, AND AFTERNOON MIN DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF FORECAST LOWS. WILL INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG IN
ALL TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME PATCHY
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
CLOSER TO BMI AND CMI. NO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS ILLINOIS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
LESS THAN 1OKT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1149 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND TO SOME EXTENT LAKE
MICHIGAN, HAVE SHIFTED E-NE OF OUR COUNTIES, LEAVING CLEAR SKIES
UNDER THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. LITTLE TO NO AIRMASS
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW-MID 50S
IN MOST AREAS. TRIMMED A DEGREE OR SO FROM AREAS NORTHEAST OF THE
LAKE TO ALLOW FOR SOME 52 DEG READINGS, AND UPDATED THE SKY GRIDS
TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER CLEARING. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. UPDATED INFO IS ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD THAT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE WAS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME
CONTRACTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS FLANKED ON MOST
SIDES BY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...SO NET RESULT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE 900 MB
PLOT OFF THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CLOUD SHIELD THE
BEST...AND SHOWS SOME CONTRACTION CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FROM THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS...AND WILL GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR DANVILLE AND CHAMPAIGN.
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THAT MOST
AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT
CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR ILLINOIS OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING
PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER STRONG ROCKIES RIDGE. MODEL SUITE CONSISTENT
ON BRINGING ENERGY UP OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO MIDWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES C BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
RAOB AND FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
MAY INHIBIT WARMING A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE
IT INTO THE 80S THROUGHOUT FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
WAVE APPROACHING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IS MOVING INTO A
RELATIVELY DRY BUT MOISTENING AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...DIGGING OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD SLOW PROGRESSION
OF SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE SLOW THE INCOMING WAVE. CHANCE OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST
AVAILABLE ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BEING STRONG ENOUGH
WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP DECENT NVA IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AND
SHUNTING MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BUT INCREASINGLY HOT FORECAST AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS TRENDING WEAKER
WITH THE WAVE AND FORECAST AN EVOLUTION TO JUST A GENERAL WEAKNESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
WITH GENERALLY MORE CLOUD COVER. AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE
WITH A NOD TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE CMC
AND GEFS MEAN. A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS IT MAY BE
SWINGING BACK TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO LOW SHEAR IN THE RIDGE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE WARM 500 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE -10C. BIGGEST
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
THE LATEST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE INTRODUCED LOCALLY DENSE FOG
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS OF CENTRAL IL. BMI AND CMI APPEAR TO HAVE THE
BETTER POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG, WITH MVFR FOG FOR DEC, SPI AND
PIA. THE FOG POTENTIAL APPEARS REASONABLE DUE TO IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS, AND AFTERNOON MIN DEWPOINTS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES OF FORECAST LOWS. WILL INTRODUCE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG IN
ALL TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT.
AFTER THE FOG BURNS OFF, MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT SOME PATCHY
CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
CLOSER TO BMI AND CMI. NO MVFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS LINGERS FROM NE TO SW ACROSS ILLINOIS.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE AXIS
MOVES EAST OF OUR COUNTIES. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT
LESS THAN 1OKT THROUGH THE DAY.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
208 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.
THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 206 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015
THE RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON SUNDAY WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION EAST AND NORTHEASTWARD AS WE HEAD INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW PATTERN TO TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND USHER IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE. THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN DAILY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20 TO 30
PERCENT ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA AS A THETA E BOUNDARY WILL SET UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE BEST POPS WILL FOCUS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE HOWEVER THE CAPE AND SHEAR INDICES
ARE VERY WEAK TO MARGINAL AT BEST. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE WITH
REGARDS TO THE OVERALL PATTERN BUT THE LATEST RUNS DO NOT AGREE AS
WELL AS SOME OF THE PREVIOUS RUNS. OVERALL THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
AMPLIFIED AND FAVOR RIDGING IN THE EASTERN US WITH A DEEP TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN STATES AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1123 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.
THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.
IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015
PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
ON THURSDAY...EACH ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOUTHWEST AND THE FRONT TO NORTHWEST. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BUT DUE TO LIMITED
COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION IN EITHER TAF ATTM.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1205 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1205 AM UPDATE...THE LAST OF THE LIGHTNING HAS NOW MOVED EAST OF
THE CWA INTO NEW BRUNSWICK. THERE ARE STILL A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS
FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THAT WILL END OVERNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE ONGOING FORECAST BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
TRENDS. NOTED THAT THE HRRR APPEARS TOO VIGOROUS IN ATTEMPTING TO
GENERATE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PORTIONS
OF THE CWA POST FRONTAL OVERNIGHT.
ORGNL DISC: SFC BNDRY HAS SLOWLY CREEPED INTO EXTRM WRN PART OF
CWA WITH NW WIND AT GREENVILLE AND SE WIND AT MILLINOCKET. THIS
BNDRY IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM NWRD ON 30KT H8 LLJ. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE TO RE-DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
WL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO THE EVNG HRS. BIGGEST CONCERN CONTS TO
CENTER ARND WASHINGTON CNTY. THIS AREA WAS HIT HARD THIS MRNG WITH
HVY RAIN AND FLOODING AS A RESULT OF LFQ OF H2 JET. MED RANGE
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER JET DVLPNG LATE TONIGHT. THIS JET IS
BEING PICKED UP ON WV IMAGERY AT THIS TIME ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.
AS THIS JET INTENSIFIES IT WL LKLY INDUCE SFC LOW DVLPMNT IN THE
GULF OF MAINE. UPR LVL SUPPORT FM JET MAX COUPLED WITH LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE WITH SFC LOW AND PW VALUES OF 1.50+ INCHES WL LKLY LEAD
TO HVY RAINFALL AGAIN OVRNGT. WL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE THE CALL ON A POSSIBLE WATCH. SFC LOPRES WL
RESULT IN SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT AND NOT CLR CWA UNTIL 12Z THUR.
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL WANE ACRS MOST OF CWA AFT 00Z BUT WL
CONTINUE THRU ABOUT 06Z OVR WASHINGTON CNTY. THUS HV MAINTAINED
ISOLD THUNDER THRU THIS TIME.
DRY DWPTS WL FILTER INTO THE NW IN WAKE OF FROPA AS DWPTS ACRS
CANADA HV DROPPED INTO THE M50S. THUS, EXPECT THAT MINS OVRNGT IN
THE NORTH WOOD CUD DROP INTO THE M/U 50S WITH LOCALES ALONG THE
COAST IN THE L60S.
DRG THE DAY THURSDAY EXPECT UPR LVL TROF TO SWING THRU THE STATE.
THIS WL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER ACRS THE
CROWN OF MAINE. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WL MV THRU DRG THE AFTN AT TIME OF
MAX DIURNAL HTG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SATURDAY SHOULD THEN BE ANOTHER DRY DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING IN. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY DRY
WEATHER ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER AS A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MID WEEK DOWNEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAJORITY OF TAF VALID TIME IN
MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS. AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING EXPECT CONDITIONS
TO INCREASE TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN VFR ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.
THE WIND AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
EASTERN MOST MARINE ZONE.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...CB/VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...CB/VJN/BLOOMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
131 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED UPPER MI FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER IS NOW CENTERED SE OF JAMES BAY AND IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
E. UPSTREAM...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AND DEPARTING
THERMAL TROF RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY COPPER HARBOR TO MARQUETTE TO IRON
MTN. TO THE W...ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM THE PACIFIC NW FOREST
FIRES IS ONCE AGAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH LEADING
EDGE APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR NW WI.
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ON THU. MAIN FCST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS/TEMPS AND
FROST/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CERTAINLY CONCERN THAT CLEARING MAY NOT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH SE
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND EITHER HOLD CLOUDS IN OVER THE E OR
BRING THEM BACK. FOR NOW...THE PLAN IS FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO
CONTINUE MIXING OUT THE MOISTURE FROM THE W AND AID THE CURRENT SE
CLEARING TREND...HELPING IT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
STAY E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE
ERN FCST AREA BY SUNSET...SKIES PROBABLY WON`T CLEAR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. LEANED
FCST SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD BOTH BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS FOR
MINS DUE TO THEIR USUAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. EXPECT THE NORMAL COLD AREAS IN THE INTERIOR TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FROST IN THE FCST. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP AS WELL NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS/LAKES/SWAMPY AREAS.
RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DRIFT E. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH SKY WILL LIKELY BE HAZY WITH ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WITH MORNING 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C AND RISING
1-2C DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODERATION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015
THE MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITION
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND 850-700
MB WAA DEVELOPS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND
TO AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.
FRI THROUGH SAT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. THE
GFS...GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OR BRING RAIN TO
MOST OF THE AREA. THE FCST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS AND REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY WITH INCREASING POPS THAT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD ARRIVE MAINLY FRI NIGHT AND LINGER
OVER THE ERN CWA AT LEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THERE MAY ENOUGH
HEATING/INSTABILITY FRI FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF TSRA...BUT MOST OF
THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL NOT HAVE TS...PER GFS/ECMWF
INSTABILITY PROGS.
SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FROM MON
THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN THE RULE AT KIWD AND KCMX...WHILE THERE IS
A POSSIBILITY THAT KSAW WILL SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT AS FOG
DEVELOPS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE REGION. CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT FOG AT KIWD AS VSBYS HAVE DROPPED OVER NRN WI
LATE THIS EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH THERE TO PUT IT
IN THE FORECAST. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP THERE...SHOULD ONLY DROP VSBYS
TO MVFR. ANY FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015
WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH DRIFTS E
ON THU...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT THOUGH LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
E TO SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN IN THE VCNTY OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 20KT.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...RJT
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
354 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER THREAT RIDING EAST THIS MORNING.
THEN DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESEIS OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREA OF MID CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND
THUNDER THE FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. MCS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
DECAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT BAND THAT MOVES ACROSS. JET STREAK RIDING NORTH
OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA COMPLEX SHOULD DRIVE THIS MID CLOUD LAYER
/FORCING EAST DURING THE MORNING. THE TREND OF THE HRRR AND HRRR-CR
BRING THIS AREA EAST TO THE METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAD TO INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS THREAT. NEIGHBORHOOD POPS FROM THE HIRES
CAMS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING PICK UP ON THIS. DONT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT THUNDER THREAT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IF FORECAST. THAT ALL DEPENDS ON
HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALSO
TRICKY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. MID/UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY.
THE DETERMINISITIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER. AT
THE MOMENT HAVE ABOUT 0.80 TO 1.25 INCHES QPF FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE HIRES CAM SOLUTIONS
WERE MOVING THE HEAVIER QPF SOUTH INTO IOWA. THE 03Z SREF WAS STILL
WAS FOCUSING HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER QPF THIS REGION FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...AND THEN
FEATURES OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF /HEAVY/ RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY...GIVEN MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED NORTH
AND SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
NORTH AND MOST PERSISTENT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
THAT WAY. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND
EAU CLAIRE/. THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS TO BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHERE ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS /1.75
INCHES/ AND COMBINE WITH A HEALTHY LLVL JET OF 45KTS.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO LINGERS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...GIVEN IT
IS MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW. LEANED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO CLOSER TO WHAT THE 27.00Z GFS
INDICATES...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY DAY FROM SOUTH/EAST
CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED NOTABLY WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MID 60S
/SOUTHEAST/ TO MID 70S /NORTHWEST/ EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT MODEL IS SELECTED...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS MARKED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS LLVL TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE. SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER
80S FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WASHED OUT FRONT WILL HANG
OUT NEAR THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TOO WARM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MN PORTION OF THE FA WITH AREAS OF
LIFR/IFR FOG OVER WEST CENTRAL WI THROUGH 13Z THU.
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SPREADING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME THREAT OF -SHRA INTO THU MORNING
OVER THE WEST...BUT EXPECT THAT TO GRADUALLY DRY UP DURING THE
LATE MORNING. THEN LOWERING CEILINGS INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACH OF NEXT TROUGH. SOME -TSRA THREAT
MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST/KRWF REGION INTO THE EVENING BEFORE MORE
WIDESPREAD -SHRA/RA DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF MN.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRI. THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD -SHRA/RA BR EXPECTED INTO THE AREA WITH MVFR CIGS
DEVELOPING LATE. SOME THREAT OF THUNDER...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL
BE LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
INTO THE NIGHT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA/TSRA. WINDS SE 7-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
307 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE 9 AM. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NW
WI FRI MORNING...AND ACROSS THE NE MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION ALOFT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BOTTOMED OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S.
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TODAY WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.
TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E/NEWD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN NOT THE BEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STILL...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF NW WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS NERN
MN...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RAINFALL AMTS IN THE MORNING COULD REACH
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN N-CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS OF NE MN WILL ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S...AND RISE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF ITS SFC LOW COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS A WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER 5K FT WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. A BLEND RESULTED IN
SMALL POPS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST
OF THE AREA...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FAST SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND SO
IS THE HANDLING OF QPF. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. THE SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH ALSO BECOMES
TANGLED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS SW
FLOW WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION WARRANTING A POP MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO MIDDLE SUMMER VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S COMMON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...WHILE A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT. AS A RESULT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT KINL/KBRD...AND WINDS SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. MOST CONFIDENT IN FOG
FORMATION AT KHIB AND KHYR DUE OBS ALONG WITH THE LATEST DLHWRF
AND HRRR OUTPUT. SO BROUGHT DOWN KHIB TO IFR VISBY AND KHYR TO MVFR.
STILL UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION AT KDLH...AS NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND STILL CONCERNED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THAT FOG
WILL FORM. SO HINTED AT THIS IN THE LATEST TAFS. BY 14Z ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE IN VFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 73 58 72 56 / 0 10 10 10
INL 77 55 80 59 / 0 10 30 50
BRD 74 58 76 56 / 10 10 10 10
HYR 74 58 70 54 / 0 20 30 20
ASX 76 58 73 55 / 0 10 20 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
102 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD TODAY AND TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN
FALL TO WELL BELOW NORMAL VALUES TONIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS...THEN WARMING UP TO NEAR SEASONABLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. NO PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST...THOUGH SOME
GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING A FAINT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN NORTH CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...BASICALLY BEMIDJI TO BRAINERD AND SOUTH...BUT NOT VERY
CONFIDENT IN THESE SOLUTIONS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER COOL AND CLEAR NIGHT WITH WIND NEARLY CALM. LEANED
TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AS IT TENDS TO PERFORMS WELL IN THESE
SITUATIONS. AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST
WHILE A LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY TOMORROW MORNING. WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AS THIS SHIFT IN SYNOPTIC FEATURES OCCURS...A
NOCTURNAL INVERSION WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND RAPID
COOLING...THUS SHIELDING US FROM THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR WHICH WILL
BEGIN TO BE ADVECTED IN ALOFT. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.
THURSDAY...WARMER WITH INCREASING CLOUDS MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 MPH. DESPITE THE CLOUDS
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO THE LOW TO MID 70S...EXCEPT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S NEAR THE LAKE AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE ACROSS EAST-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE IN THE DAY...BASICALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
MINNESOTA. LARGE-SCALE LIFT IS NOT STRONG BESIDES SOME WARM AIR
ADVECTION AT LOW/MID LEVELS...BUT DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT ANY RAIN MAKING IT TO THE
GROUND.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH SEASONALLY NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. A WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT OUT
OF THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THURSDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY. THE LATEST
GFS/GEM/ECMWF TRACKS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TRACK
WILL BE THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA OR NORTHERN IOWA...AND THEN INTO
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS TRACK KEEPS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THE SOUTHERN FRINGES OF THE
FORECAST AREA COULD BE AFFECTED BY LIGHT RAIN AND SOME THUNDER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THERE WILL ALSO BE AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
AND NW ONTARIO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND NE MINNESOTA WILL BE
UNDER WARM NW FLOW. THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE NW FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY. THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM12 ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA LATE FRIDAY AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. I PROVIDED LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THINK THERE MAY BE SOME INITIAL DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING THE CAP FROM
THE WARM FLOW. THE CHANCES WILL BE BETTER FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES AND THE CAP COULD BE OVERCOME.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF SATURDAY AND HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LATE OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING A WARMING TREND TO THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES
COULD BUILD TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. A
TROUGH COULD BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO NE MINNESOTA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 102 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARDS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE...WHILE A DEVELOPING LOW MOVES FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/EASTERN NEBRASKA.
DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED AND WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT. AS A RESULT PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED. EXPECTING WINDS TO
REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT KINL/KBRD...AND WINDS SHOULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG FROM FORMING. MOST CONFIDENT IN FOG
FORMATION AT KHIB AND KHYR DUE OBS ALONG WITH THE LATEST DLHWRF
AND HRRR OUTPUT. SO BROUGHT DOWN KHIB TO IFR VISBY AND KHYR TO MVFR.
STILL UNCERTAIN ON FOG FORMATION AT KDLH...AS NAM MOS GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF. EVEN WITH THIS IN MIND STILL CONCERNED WITH LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND SMALL TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSION THAT FOG
WILL FORM. SO HINTED AT THIS IN THE LATEST TAFS. BY 14Z ALL
TERMINALS WILL BE IN VFR CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 57 72 57 76 / 10 10 10 10
INL 56 79 59 80 / 0 30 50 20
BRD 60 76 57 80 / 10 0 10 10
HYR 59 73 55 77 / 10 30 20 0
ASX 58 74 57 76 / 10 20 10 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.
A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.
Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.
The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.
Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1126 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN. ELONGATED SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISS RVR
VALLEY. A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER MONTANA...THEN
MEANDERS SE INTO CENTRAL KS. ALSO A DISTINCT DRY LINE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 30S AND 40S WITH TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE 100.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST
WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB...ALONG THE DRY
LINE. A COUPLE CU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT IS
MINIMAL AND SHALLOW...SUGGESTING A CAP STILL IN PLACE. THE
NAM/GFS/EC KEEP THIS AREA QUIET...HOWEVER THE NEAR TERM RAP/HRRR IN
AGREEMENT A FEW ISOLD STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST
STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE DEVELOPED. HAVE A DRY FORECAST AT THE
MOMENT...THINKING THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THAT SAID...INVERTED V SOUNDING WEST OF THE DRY
LINE AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG STORM DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE FOLLOWING A COMBINATION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN S DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM A NOCTURNAL LL
JET. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOSE NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA
BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT EAST THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS FOCUSES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
TOMORROW THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
SPEED FROM EARLIER RUNS. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD SUPPORT AND THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN LIFT. MORNING CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL AS CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLY AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FROM SOME STRONG
STORMS. SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHS HOLD IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH COULD STILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E. IN ADDITION...DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THE THETA-E
RIDGE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING ACROSS THE STATE COULD BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA NEBRASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE MOISTURE ON
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED TO PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
PRETTY MUCH LIMIT IT TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN.
CURRENT COVERAGE IN NRN NEBRASKA IS TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT TSRA
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA ON THURSDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE KEPT A
TEMPO FOR 5SM -TSRA BKN080CB FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS
FROM 21Z- 02Z/27TH. AFTER 02Z...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE CHANCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP
INTO THE KVTN TERMINAL AFTER 03Z.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...ROBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
322 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.
COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
LOWERED LOWS A FEW DEGREES IN OUR USUAL COOL SPOTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CWA AND NEAR FOSSTON...TEMPS HAVE BEEN FALLING INTO
THE LOW 50S ALREADY THERE AND SHOULD GET DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S
BY MORNING. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER FOR CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS. AT THIS POINT
IT SEEMS THAT MOST OF THE THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AS A
WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT. TWEAKED TEMPS A
BIT AS SOME HAVE FALLEN A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. STILL
EXPECTING LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
INCREASED CLOUDS A BIT WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL COVERAGE
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CWA. NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.
WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.
MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.
SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
402 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMPLEX HAS A
HISTORY OF VERY STRONG WINDS WITH MIDLAND SD REPORTING 79 MPH GUSTS
AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT THIS COMPLEX IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THINK THAT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT HEADS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
THINK THIS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH I29 SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SW MN AND NW IA THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SORT OF BREAK IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
SD...WILL IGNITE FURTHER CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRUDGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE I29 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EASTWARD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER WAVE THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR WINDS...MAINLY NEAR THE MO VALLEY.
BY LATE EVENING THIS THREAT DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY...AS WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH THUNDER AT ALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED A
BIT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...BUT WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FRONT WEIGHTED AT THE START OF
THE LONGER RANGE. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO BEING CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE FSD CWA AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STILL
DEALING WITH A COUPLE DISTINCT COMMUNITIES OF SOLUTIONS...ONE A BIT
MORE NORTHWARD CONSISTING OF MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
ONE MORE SOUTHWARD CONSISTING OF THE CANADIAN AND WRF-ARW/WRF NMM.
SOME HINTS IN THE WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGEST A BIT MORE
CREDENCE SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THIS SUBSET...WITH STRONGER OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND WHAT IMPACT THE CURRENT MCS WILL
HAVE ON BOUNDARY LOCATION. WHEREVER THE EXACT UPPER LOW SETS UP BY
EARLY FRIDAY...THE EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN A PRECIPITATION
FAVORED DYNAMIC SET UP.
ONE THING THAT MAY BE A CHALLENGE IS GETTING A GREAT COVERAGE OF
THUNDER...WITH MOST PROFILES SIDING CLOSER TO MOIST NEUTRAL NEAR AND
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. CONTINUE TO SHOW TRAJECTORY WRAPPING MID LEVEL
FRONTAL SUPPORT AND PRECIPITATION BEHIND SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.
EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOES END OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO IMPACT HEATING. WILL LIKELY HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR EAST...AND SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE WEST.
CONCERN GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
PULL EASTWARD IS JUST HOW MUCH PUSH THE STRATUS FIELD WILL GET
BEFORE FLOW WEAKENS WITH BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE CWA TRAJECTORY
WOULD FAVOR DRYING...BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE STRATUS LINGER
INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE SOME
AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE I29 CORRIDOR.
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A FEATURE OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
FEATURES...IN FACT...ARE FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF WAVES PUSHING OVER A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE. POTENTIALLY
COULD GET A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE WARMISH TEMPS ALOFT AND
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVERGENCE ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA...HAVE REMOVED
ATTEMPT BY BLENDED INITIALIZATION FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE A BIT OF A
COOL BIAS IN THE BLEND AND HAVE PUSHED MOST DAYTIME READINGS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPTED TO DO MORE...BUT
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW MAXIMUM MIXING. READINGS IN THE WEST
WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE GENERALLY 80S
PREVAIL EACH DAY CENTRAL AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY HOLD
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
THURSDAY...WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
OUR WEST THIS EVENING MOVE INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF I-29 OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. MODELS POINT AT CURRENT ACTIVITY WEAKENING AS
IT PROGRESSES EAST...BUT WILL MAINTAIN VICINITY MENTION FOR SHOWERS
AT KHON/KFSD TO INDICATE TIMING OF GREATER POTENTIAL.
BETTER THREAT OF RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...MORE LIKELY AFTER 28/00Z...AND WILL BEGIN
TO INTRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE LATTER PART OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
ENOUGH INSTABILITY THAT WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE
LATE AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...THOUGH WITH TIMING UNCERTAINTIES WILL
LIMIT TO JUST SHOWERS FOR NOW.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1244 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR FLYING CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME STRATUS AT THE MVFR LEVEL ALONG THE
ESCARPMENT BETWEEN 08Z AND 16Z. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF CIGS AT KSAT/KSSF...ALTHOUGH WILL KEEP SCT FOR NOW. S TO SE
WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
AVIATION...
THERE ARE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF DRT MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ONE OF THESE
COULD MOVE OVER THE AIRPORT AND REDUCE VIS TO MVFR...BUT THE
PROBABILITY IS VERY LOW. ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL END BY
AROUND 03Z. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WE COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS FORM IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW THURSDAY MORNING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY CIGS. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THE LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND BARELY BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO
ONLY A FEW SPOTS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR DOWNDRAFT WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIE BY SUNSET. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES A BIT WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A RESULTING DROP IN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. EARLY
MORNINGS WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT AFTERNOONS
STILL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA TO PRODUCE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. GULF MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...AND HENCE BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT OF COVERAGE...SO AT THIS TIME WE WILL
KEEP POPS LOW. LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUD COVER SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO
NEAR NORMAL...LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND LOWS
AROUND 70...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 98 73 97 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 68 97 69 96 70 / 0 0 0 0 -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 97 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 71 97 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 100 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 98 68 97 70 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 70 97 71 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 97 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 97 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 71 97 72 / 0 0 0 0 -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...04
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
347 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.
WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.
FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
SCENARIO SCREAMS WIDESPREAD VALLEY FOG FOR KLSE...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD...DEEP LIGHT WIND LAYER...AND T/TD SPREAD AT 03Z NOW ONLY 5
DEGREES. A 1-3 HOUR PERIOD OF 1/4SM SEEMED LIKELY...AND WOULD HAVE
ALREADY UPDATED TAF TO REFLECT CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER...A BATCH OF MID
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO CENTRAL MN...AND LOOK TO TAKE A
EAST/SOUTHEAST TRACK OVERNIGHT. THE RAP/HRRR/NAM ALL SUGGEST THIS
BKN 6-8 KFT DECK WOULD MOVE OVER KLSE BEFORE 12Z...AND COULD PUT THE
BREAKS ON THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL IT THIN BEFORE IT MAKES
IT? WILL IT GET IN TOO LATE TO INHIBIT FOG FORMATION? ELECTING TO
KEEP FORECAST AS IS. EXPECT UPDATES BASED ON CLOUD TRENDS OVERNIGHT.
FOR KRST...NOT SOLD ON THE MVFR BR ANYMORE WITH A FEW CLOUDS MORE
LIKELY AT KRST.
FOR THE REST OF THU...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE
WEST...WITH LOWER CIGS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT RAIN TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT...AND LIKELY HANG AROUND FOR THE BETTER PART OF FRIDAY.
LOOK FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS-VSBYS.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.
HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...RIECK
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
714 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY EARLY OR MID NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...ADJUSTED NEAR TERM POPS TO MATCH
GOING RADAR TRENDS. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH 9 AM WILL BE OVER
COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
CEILINGS HAVE DROPPED TO 600-800 FEET AT KOGB AND KMNI...SOME OF
WHICH IS BLEEDING INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF COLLETON...DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS UNCHANGED.
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS BUCKLED BACK INLAND AWAY FROM THE COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW PRESSURE RETROGRADING
INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. MODELS SHOW THE STATIONARY FRONT
ESSENTIALLY BISECTING SOUTHEAST SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY AS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A RIBBON OF HIGHER
850-700 HPA THETA-E AIR NUDGES WEST. THIS COUPLED WITH UPPER
DIFLUENCE INDUCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A SUBTROPICAL
JET STREAK POSITIONED OVER THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT WILL SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RAP AND NSSL-WRF APPEAR TO HAVE THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION TODAY...BUT THERE
ARE DEFINITELY SOME TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DIFFERENCES NOTED. WILL
GO WITH A 30-50 POP REGIME FOR TODAY WITH THE HIGHEST GRIDDED POPS
PLACED ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NORTH CHARLESTON-
HENDERSONVILLE-SPRINGFIELD-GLENNVILLE LINE. THIS INCLUDES BOTH THE
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. INITIALLY THE AIRMASS WEST OF
THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THIS WILL CHANGE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES AS MID-LEVEL THETA-E
INCREASES. WILL CAP POPS AT 20-30 PERCENT WELL INLAND FOR NOW.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S INLAND WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS AT THE BEACHES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FOR TODAY
LOOKS TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A FEW STRONG TSTMS BEING
POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH SLOWLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS IN RESPONSE TO LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM. WILL NEED TO KEEP 20-40 PERCENT
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHEST AT THE COAST...AS THE LOW-
LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL FAVOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAKING IT
INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND WITH UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AT UPPER LEVELS....THE REGION WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A WEAKENING TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
AND A STRONG ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY...WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BE EASTERLY ON FRIDAY...THEN VEER TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW ADVECTS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. WENT
LOW END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY...THEN INCREASED TO HIGH END CHANCE FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL EYES WILL BE FOCUSING ON THE FATE OF ERIKA DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST FOR ERIKA HAS THE CENTER OF THE STORM
EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS LATER MONDAY...THEN MOVING
NORTHWARD TOWARD OUR ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY. THE OFFICIAL NHC
TRACK IS PRETTY CLOSE TO THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE ON ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM ERIKA IN OUR AREA
DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH BOTH THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM.
HAVE GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGH
END CHANCE TO LOW END LIKELY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK...HAVE KEPT HIGH END CHANCE FOR NOW ON
WEDNESDAY. BY THURSDAY...STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN ASSUMING ERIKA
MOVES WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION BY THEN.
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATUS AT KOGB AND KMNI WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF KCHS. VFR THIS
MORNING AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA TODAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING/SPATIAL DIFFERENCES NOTED THE VARIOUS MODEL DATA...BUT
ODDS FAVOR KSAV FOR IMPACTS. WILL CARRY TEMPO 4SM -TSRA AT KSAV
18-21Z FOR NOW. TSRA MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO KCHS IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT VFR TO
DOMINATE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATER MONDAY THROUGH MID
WEEK...THE FORECAST HIGHLY DEPENDS ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE LATEST TRACK FROM NHC BRINGS ERIKA TOWARD
OUR REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS... ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...ASSUMING THIS WILL BE THE TIME FRAME OF CLOSEST
APPROACH OF ERIKA. ALSO WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WHERE ERIKA TRACKS. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST TODAY AS THE STATIONARY
FRONT MEANDERS FARTHER INLAND AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES
HOLD. SPEEDS LOOK TO MAX OUT AT 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS
COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35
KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY
RAIN.
TONIGHT...SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS GENERALLY 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT. TSTMS COULD POSE A RISK FOR MARINERS WITH
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT...CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING AND
VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM IN HEAVY RAIN.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
MONDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS LESS THAN 5
FEET. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED EAST AND NORTH
OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH EAST WINDS ON FRIDAY...VEERING
TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
LATER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA. THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST HAS ERIKA APPROACHING THE WATERS LATER
TUESDAY. HAVE STARTED TO TREND WINDS AND SEAS UP BY MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPED WINDS AT 30 KTS OR LESS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH SEAS 10-15 FEET...MAINLY OFFSHORE.
PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...CURRENT TIDE TRENDS SUGGEST TIDE LEVELS COULD PEAK
NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WITH THE
FAIRLY LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE...IT IS POSSIBLE TIDES MAY FALL
JUST SHORT AS GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN
THIS KIND OF REGIME. HOWEVER...A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD
STILL BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. TRENDS SUGGEST TIDES WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
FORT PULASKI AND THE GEORGIA COAST.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH FRIDAY
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. EVEN WITHOUT ANY EFFECTS FROM
ERIKA...EXTRA- TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE SHOWS TIDES REACHING MINOR
COASTAL FLOOD LEVELS DURING THE MAJOR HIGH TIDES FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL HELP TO
INCREASE TIDE LEVELS. WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY
SUNDAY...WHICH MAY NOT BE QUITE AS CONDUCIVE FOR PUSHING TIDE
LEVELS HIGHER...BUT WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS WILL REMAIN MUCH
HIGHER THAN NORMAL...AND IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA
HOLDS...WE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE
TIDES ALONG WITH SOME COASTAL FLOODING.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/RFM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
554 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER THREAT RIDING EAST THIS MORNING.
THEN DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESEIS OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREA OF MID CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND
THUNDER THE FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. MCS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
DECAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT BAND THAT MOVES ACROSS. JET STREAK RIDING NORTH
OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA COMPLEX SHOULD DRIVE THIS MID CLOUD LAYER
/FORCING EAST DURING THE MORNING. THE TREND OF THE HRRR AND HRRR-CR
BRING THIS AREA EAST TO THE METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAD TO INCLUDE
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS THREAT. NEIGHBORHOOD POPS FROM THE HIRES
CAMS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING PICK UP ON THIS. DONT ANTICIPATE ANY
SIGNIFICANT THUNDER THREAT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IF FORECAST. THAT ALL DEPENDS ON
HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR HOWEVER. HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALSO
TRICKY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH THE
MORNING. MID/UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY.
THE DETERMINISITIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER. AT
THE MOMENT HAVE ABOUT 0.80 TO 1.25 INCHES QPF FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE HIRES CAM SOLUTIONS
WERE MOVING THE HEAVIER QPF SOUTH INTO IOWA. THE 03Z SREF WAS STILL
WAS FOCUSING HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER QPF THIS REGION FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...AND THEN
FEATURES OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF /HEAVY/ RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY...GIVEN MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED NORTH
AND SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
NORTH AND MOST PERSISTENT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
THAT WAY. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND
EAU CLAIRE/. THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS TO BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHERE ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS /1.75
INCHES/ AND COMBINE WITH A HEALTHY LLVL JET OF 45KTS.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO LINGERS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...GIVEN IT
IS MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW. LEANED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO CLOSER TO WHAT THE 27.00Z GFS
INDICATES...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY DAY FROM SOUTH/EAST
CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED NOTABLY WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MID 60S
/SOUTHEAST/ TO MID 70S /NORTHWEST/ EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT MODEL IS SELECTED...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS MARKED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS LLVL TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE. SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER
80S FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WASHED OUT FRONT WILL HANG
OUT NEAR THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TOO WARM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE ON OVERALL TRENDS IN TIMING OF -SHRA INTO THE DAY.
SOME CHANCE OF ACTIVITY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN PORTION
OF THE FA DURING THE MORNING PER TREND OF THE RAP/HRRR. SHOULD
REMAIN VFR WITH SLOWLY LOWERING MID CLOUD DECK TO MVFR INTO THE
EVENING OUT WEST...SPREADING EAST AFTER 06Z. IT SHOULD REMAIN VFR
INTO MOST OF WEST CENTRAL WI INTO TONIGHT. MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH ISOLD THUNDER POSSIBLE DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE IT MOVE INTO
WISCONSIN MAINLY AFTER 06Z. BEST THUNDER THREAT AROUND KRWF LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWER IFR CIGS LIKELY DEVELOPING AFTER 08Z
INTO THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD EASTERN MN AFTER 12Z FRI.
KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z FRI. WILL SEE A
CHANCE OF -SHRA MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 18Z BUT IT SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THEN MORE
WIDESPREAD -SHRA/RA BR EXPECTED WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AFTER
09Z LATE. SOME THREAT OF THUNDER...BUT BELIEVE THAT WILL BE
LIMITED TO SOUTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND INTO
THE NIGHT GENERALLY 10KTS OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI AFTN...VFR. CHC MVFR SHRA. WINDS SE 7-15 KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
850 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
Issued at 0838 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Vigorous elevated convection continues to develop across eastern
Kansas this morning. Isentropic upglide centered around the 310K
level is tapping into an unstable source of air upstream. Most
unstable CAPE (MUCAPE) values earlier were approaching 3000 J/kg
with enough shear for occasional supercell structures. This
resulted in several reports of large hail across extreme southeast
Kansas. Most stones have been around 1 inch in diameter, though we
did received a report of baseball sized hail in Crawford county.
Recent mesoanalysis indicates the MUCAPE values have come down a
bit, between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. This is due to the airmass being
worked over by earlier storms. As was the case earlier mixed
layer CAPE is still rather low, on the order of a few hundred
J/kg and surface based CAPE remains non existent. As a result,
will maintain our main risks as hail to the size of quarters and
cloud to ground lightning.
Expectations over the next few hours is for storms to continue to
move south. Upper level wind fields and cell motion vectors
continue to favor a southward movement (if not south-southwest).
As a result, little in the way of activity is expected to cross
the MO/KS state line. Convection intensity will wane as we head
through the morning hours, with activity expected to exit to the
south/southwest or dissipate by midday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Another pleasant night across the Ozarks region with temperatures
in the mid 50s over the eastern Ozarks to the mid 60s in the west.
Generally seeing a clear sky across the area.
A thunderstorm complex has developed over South Dakota on top of
the ridge axis in an area where upper level energy was moving in
from the west and beginning to break down that ridge. An
instability axis extends almost due south from the current
convective activity through Nebraska and Kansas. HRRR continues to
develop convection towards daybreak over far eastern Kansas on the
edge of this instability in an area of isentropic upglide. Will
need to monitor for this development in a couple/few hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
If convection does indeed develop over the far western portion of
the CWA in southeast Kansas and far western Missouri early this
morning, it will have trouble getting much further east. Much
drier and more stable air exists over most of our CWA, so any
potential of convection today will likely be this morning and in
our far western CWA.
Shortwave energy will continue to track eastward today and tonight
with the main energy remaining north of our CWA. Will maintain low
end precipitation chances over northwest 1/3 of the CWA, but
expecting most areas to remain dry tonight as well.
.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 0225 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Front remains to our west on Friday with the best energy from the
upper level shortwave still off to the north. Again not expecting
much in the way of precipitation coverage, with slight if any
chances existing in northwest portion of the CWA.
The surface front and shortwave energy will begin to push through
the area Friday night and continue into Saturday, but
shower/thunderstorm coverage looks to remain scattered in nature
with this system, and it looks like not everyone will get
precipitation.
Upper level ridging begins to build back into the area by Saturday
night and precipitation chances through the remainder of the
extended period look to be minimal at this time. Will also see
temperatures rise back to more normal readings for this time of
year.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1155 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015
VFR conditions are expected through Thursday evening. A few
thunderstorms will be possible around sunrise on Thursday across
extreme southeastern Kansas, but they are expected to remain west
of the Joplin aerodrome at this time. Variable winds tonight will
become southeast on Thursday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE...Gagan
SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1000 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
BASED ON LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL RADAR...THREAT
FOR ANY RAIN IN OUR FAR SOUTH APPEARS TO BE DECREASING AND THUS
WILL REMOVE POPS AND GO DRY IN SRN FCST AREA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT.
NO OTHER CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.
COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
951 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A
BAND OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WAS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF KJMS AND MAY
PROVIDE A SPRINKLE OR TWO THROUGH 18Z. CLOUDS SHOULD HANG AROUND
UNTIL LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...CLEARING FROM WEST TO
EAST. VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...ZH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
643 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
CONVECTION ACROSS SD PROPAGATING SE AND ECHOES OVER THE SW FA
DIMINISHING. BASED ON FAVORED SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE LOW
CONFIDENCE THAT THE SOUTHERN FA WILL GET ANY PCPN TODAY. KEPT THE
MORNING DRY BUT FOR NOW HELD ON TO LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.
COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA
OTHERWISE VFR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
603 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMPLEX HAS A
HISTORY OF VERY STRONG WINDS WITH MIDLAND SD REPORTING 79 MPH GUSTS
AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT THIS COMPLEX IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THINK THAT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT HEADS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
THINK THIS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH I29 SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SW MN AND NW IA THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SORT OF BREAK IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
SD...WILL IGNITE FURTHER CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRUDGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE I29 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EASTWARD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER WAVE THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR WINDS...MAINLY NEAR THE MO VALLEY.
BY LATE EVENING THIS THREAT DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY...AS WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH THUNDER AT ALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED A
BIT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...BUT WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FRONT WEIGHTED AT THE START OF
THE LONGER RANGE. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO BEING CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE FSD CWA AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STILL
DEALING WITH A COUPLE DISTINCT COMMUNITIES OF SOLUTIONS...ONE A BIT
MORE NORTHWARD CONSISTING OF MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
ONE MORE SOUTHWARD CONSISTING OF THE CANADIAN AND WRF-ARW/WRF NMM.
SOME HINTS IN THE WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGEST A BIT MORE
CREDENCE SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THIS SUBSET...WITH STRONGER OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND WHAT IMPACT THE CURRENT MCS WILL
HAVE ON BOUNDARY LOCATION. WHEREVER THE EXACT UPPER LOW SETS UP BY
EARLY FRIDAY...THE EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN A PRECIPITATION
FAVORED DYNAMIC SET UP.
ONE THING THAT MAY BE A CHALLENGE IS GETTING A GREAT COVERAGE OF
THUNDER...WITH MOST PROFILES SIDING CLOSER TO MOIST NEUTRAL NEAR AND
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. CONTINUE TO SHOW TRAJECTORY WRAPPING MID LEVEL
FRONTAL SUPPORT AND PRECIPITATION BEHIND SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.
EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOES END OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO IMPACT HEATING. WILL LIKELY HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR EAST...AND SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE WEST.
CONCERN GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
PULL EASTWARD IS JUST HOW MUCH PUSH THE STRATUS FIELD WILL GET
BEFORE FLOW WEAKENS WITH BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE CWA TRAJECTORY
WOULD FAVOR DRYING...BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE STRATUS LINGER
INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE SOME
AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE I29 CORRIDOR.
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A FEATURE OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
FEATURES...IN FACT...ARE FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF WAVES PUSHING OVER A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE. POTENTIALLY
COULD GET A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE WARMISH TEMPS ALOFT AND
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVERGENCE ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA...HAVE REMOVED
ATTEMPT BY BLENDED INITIALIZATION FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE A BIT OF A
COOL BIAS IN THE BLEND AND HAVE PUSHED MOST DAYTIME READINGS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPTED TO DO MORE...BUT
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW MAXIMUM MIXING. READINGS IN THE WEST
WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE GENERALLY 80S
PREVAIL EACH DAY CENTRAL AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY HOLD
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 557 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SD AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH AREAS EAST OF I29 THIS MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TODAY BEHIND THIS BAND...BUT THE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARRIVE AFTER 21Z IN THE NORTHWEST
AND EXPAND ELSEWHERE THIS EVENING. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOWER VISIBILITIES UNDER SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...AS THE RAIN EXPANDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MVFR/IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY...PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
641 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.
WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.
FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
MORNING FOG WILL DISSIPATE AROUND THE KLSE AIRFIELD IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD THE AIRFIELDS FOR FRIDAY. EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO BE
LOWERED TO AT LEAST MVFR FRIDAY...BUT TRENDS WILL LIKELY BE TOWARD
IFR IN SHRA/RA.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.
HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
...Updated long term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Models remain in good agreement with an upper level trough
crossing the Central High Plains overnight as a surface
boundary/weak cold front crosses southwestern Kansas. Water vapor
loop earlier this morning indicated an upper level disturbance,
located over southern Colorado at 12z Thursday. Dprog/dt along
with the RAP and NAM suggesting that this disturbance will precede
the main upper trough and will be crossing southwest Kansas
between 18z Thursday and 00z Friday. Based on the timing of the
southern Colorado upper wave along with 700mb moisture, 700mb
frontogenesis, and afternoon mid level instability ahead of this
wave late day will be leaning towards the HRRR,RAP,ARW, and NMM
with the better chances for scattered thunderstorms developing
along and east of a Dighton to Hugoton line. the main hazards from
these storms still appear to be hail quarter size and smaller
along with wind gusts of near 60 mph based on the latest RAP 0-6km
shear and CAPE values late today and early this evening. Periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially
east of highway 283. These thunderstorms are expected to move east
overnight as another area of scattered thunderstorms develop
further west near the weak cold front/surface boundary as it and
the main upper trough crosses western Kansas between 03z and 12z
Friday. Severe weather is not anticipated with these storms,
however moderate rainfall and lightning still will be likely.
A few lingering thunderstorms will be possible across south
central Kansas early Friday morning, however as the upper level
trough moves east towards the mid Mississippi valley these storms
will quickly end and skies will begin to clear from west to east.
As the weak cold front continues to move south across Oklahoma
during the day the 900mb to 850mb temperatures will cool. 850mb
mix down temperatures at 00z Saturday continue to supports highs
mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
High pressure at the surface will build across western Kansas
Friday night so winds will decrease to less than 10 knots after
sunset. Given these winds and clear/mostly clear conditions will
trend towards undercutting guidance for lows. Will favor
temperatures falling back into the mainly the upper 50s to lower
60s.
From Saturday through the beginning of next week an upper level
ridge will build and shift eastward into the Central and Northern
Plains. This trend continues to support the previous forecast with
a gradual warming trend through early next week. Highs will be
rebounding from the upper 80s to around 90 on Saturday to at least
the low to mid 90s on Monday and Tuesday.
Towards mid week a southwesterly flow will develop across the
Central High Plains. The GFS and ECMWF also suggest some tropical
moisture will try to return to Colorado and portions of western
Kansas. This may limit how warm temperatures will get around mid
week. There will also be a slightly better chance for afternoon
and evening thunderstorms along a surface boundary which is
expected to be located near the Colorado border should any subtle
upper wave be embedded in the southwesterly flow.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon as a Colorado upper
level trough moves east towards western Kansas. At this time based
on the NAM BUFR along with the RAP and NMM the VFR ceilings by
late day/early evening will lower to around 3500 ft AGL. In
addition to the lowering ceilings there will also be a chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the upper level trough late today and early
tonight. DDC and HYS will have the better opportunity for
convection for thunderstorms between 21z Thursday and 03z Friday.
GCK also has a chance but it appears to be prior to 00z Friday,
and the probability is less than 50 percent. As this upper level
trough passes the chance for storms will end and skies will begin
to slowly clear. Gusty southwest winds will continue until a cold
front crosses southwest Kansas between 03z and 09z Friday. As this
cold front passes the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 88 60 89 / 50 10 0 0
GCK 64 88 59 89 / 40 10 0 0
EHA 64 88 59 89 / 30 10 10 0
LBL 66 89 60 90 / 50 10 0 0
HYS 65 87 59 89 / 60 10 0 0
P28 70 91 63 90 / 30 20 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
119 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
...Updated short term discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Models remain in good agreement with an upper level trough
crossing the Central High Plains overnight as a surface
boundary/weak cold front crosses southwestern Kansas. Water vapor
loop earlier this morning indicated an upper level disturbance,
located over southern Colorado at 12z Thursday. Dprog/dt along
with the RAP and NAM suggesting that this disturbance will precede
the main upper trough and will be crossing southwest Kansas
between 18z Thursday and 00z Friday. Based on the timing of the
southern Colorado upper wave along with 700mb moisture, 700mb
frontogenesis, and afternoon mid level instability ahead of this
wave late day will be leaning towards the HRRR,RAP,ARW, and NMM
with the better chances for scattered thunderstorms developing
along and east of a Dighton to Hugoton line. the main hazards from
these storms still appear to be hail quarter size and smaller
along with wind gusts of near 60 mph based on the latest RAP 0-6km
shear and CAPE values late today and early this evening. Periods
of moderate to heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially
east of highway 283. These thunderstorms are expected to move east
overnight as another area of scattered thunderstorms develop
further west near the weak cold front/surface boundary as it and
the main upper trough crosses western Kansas between 03z and 12z
Friday. Severe weather is not anticipated with these storms,
however moderate rainfall and lightning still will be likely.
A few lingering thunderstorms will be possible across south
central Kansas early Friday morning, however as the upper level
trough moves east towards the mid Mississippi valley these storms
will quickly end and skies will begin to clear from west to east.
As the weak cold front continues to move south across Oklahoma
during the day the 900mb to 850mb temperatures will cool. 850mb
mix down temperatures at 00z Saturday continue to supports highs
mainly in the 85 to 90 degree range.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WE WILL SEE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING UPPER 80S FOR THESE DAYS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH 90S LIKELY
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SUPERBLEND HAS ISOLATED
15-20 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS REMAIN HOT AND DRY SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR
THIS SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon as a Colorado upper
level trough moves east towards western Kansas. At this time based
on the NAM BUFR along with the RAP and NMM the VFR ceilings by
late day/early evening will lower to around 3500 ft AGL. In
addition to the lowering ceilings there will also be a chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the upper level trough late today and early
tonight. DDC and HYS will have the better opportunity for
convection for thunderstorms between 21z Thursday and 03z Friday.
GCK also has a chance but it appears to be prior to 00z Friday,
and the probability is less than 50 percent. As this upper level
trough passes the chance for storms will end and skies will begin
to slowly clear. Gusty southwest winds will continue until a cold
front crosses southwest Kansas between 03z and 09z Friday. As this
cold front passes the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 66 88 60 89 / 50 10 0 0
GCK 64 88 59 89 / 40 10 0 0
EHA 64 88 59 89 / 30 10 10 0
LBL 66 89 60 90 / 50 10 0 0
HYS 65 87 59 89 / 60 10 0 0
P28 70 91 63 90 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1213 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
...Updated synopsis and aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
At 12z Thursday a 500mb trough was located over Colorado and
Wyoming. 40 to 50 meter 500mb 12 hour height falls were observed
east of the upper trough at North Platte and Denver. A 700mb
trough was located over eastern Colorado and western Nebraska.
700mb temperatures at 12z Thursday varied from +10c at Topeka to
+13c at Dodge City and Denver to +14c at North Platte. At the
surface a weak stationary front extended from southwest Nebraska
into central Kansas. A trough of low pressure extended from north
to south across far eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 111 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
A SYNOPTIC DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING WILL
ROUND THE EDGE OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTH. THIS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL EVENTUALLY EJECT OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER TODAY. AS THIS DOES, THIS FEATURE WILL USHER IN THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK FRONT ACROSS KANSAS. LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS FROM HAYS, DOWN TO
NEAR DODGE CITY, AND WRAPPING BACK UP TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARDS STAFFORD
COUNTY. THIS IS A BLEND OF THE TWO ARW/WRF CORES, WHICH SHOWS THE STRONGEST
FRONTOGENESIS IN THIS REGION. A LOW TO MODERATE AMOUNT OF SBCAPE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP (1000-2000 J/KG). BULK SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TOO (20-30
KT). THE MAIN THREATS WITH THE STORMS ARE 50-60 MPH WINDS, NICKEL TO
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. UNDER THE STRONGEST
STORM, WOULD NOT RULE OUT 1" OF RAIN. MORE REALISTICALLY, RAIN AMOUNTS
WILL BE SPOTTY WITH LOWER AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. HAVE POPS TAPERING QUICKLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SOME
OF THE MODELS CONTINUE PRECIP THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND HELPS WITH LIFT. OTHERWISE, HIGHS TODAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 90S WITH LOWS IN MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR FRIDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WE WILL SEE A TEMPORARY REPRIEVE FROM THE HEAT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
AS SLIGHTLY COOLER 850-HPA TEMPERATURES ADVECT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING UPPER 80S FOR THESE DAYS. THE HEAT WILL RETURN WITH 90S LIKELY
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE EXTENDED
MODELS SHOW UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS
WITH LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE SUPERBLEND HAS ISOLATED
15-20 PERCENT POPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. I SUPPOSE AN ISOLATED STORM
COULD FORM ALONG THE LEE TROUGH. ON THE OTHER HAND, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS REMAIN HOT AND DRY SINCE ANY ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
ISOLATED IN NATURE. THE SUPERBLEND TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR
THIS SUMMER-TIME PATTERN WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Friday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Clouds will thicken and lower this afternoon as a Colorado upper
level trough moves east towards western Kansas. At this time based
on the NAM BUFR along with the RAP and NMM the VFR ceilings by
late day/early evening will lower to around 3500 ft AGL. In
addition to the lowering ceilings there will also be a chance for
thunderstorms ahead of the upper level trough late today and early
tonight. DDC and HYS will have the better opportunity for
convection for thunderstorms between 21z Thursday and 03z Friday.
GCK also has a chance but it appears to be prior to 00z Friday,
and the probability is less than 50 percent. As this upper level
trough passes the chance for storms will end and skies will begin
to slowly clear. Gusty southwest winds will continue until a cold
front crosses southwest Kansas between 03z and 09z Friday. As this
cold front passes the winds will shift to the north at 10 to 15
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 97 66 88 60 / 50 50 10 0
GCK 96 64 88 59 / 30 40 10 0
EHA 95 64 88 59 / 40 40 10 10
LBL 98 66 89 60 / 40 50 10 0
HYS 98 65 87 59 / 60 60 10 0
P28 98 70 91 63 / 30 30 20 10
&&
.DDC Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...SUGDEN
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
702 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO SCNTRL
CANADA YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM
NRN ALBERTA TO NRN MANITOBA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WY
INTO THE WRN PLAINS. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A FCST
ISSUE HERE ON FRI. AFTER MORNING FOG...THE DAY HAS TURNED MOSTLY
SUNNY...THOUGH AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER HAS LEFT THE SKY WITH A HAZY
APPEARANCE. TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS DRY AIR IN A RELATIVE SENSE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE COLUMN. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
EXPECT MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY NOT FALL BLO 60F.
ON FRI...THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO WI. BEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE SHIFTS FROM NRN IA/SRN
MN INTO WI...SO BULK OF PCPN WILL PASS BY TO THE S OF HERE. THAT
AREA IS ALSO WHERE MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST PCPN. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED TO THE N. WHILE HIGH RES WRF-ARW/NMM ARE LIKELY
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING PCPN INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI FRI...MOST
MODELS DO BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE SCNTRL IN THE AFTN. WILL PAINT
CHC POPS OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER/DAYTIME
HEATING...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM BUILD A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY PER MLCAPES FARTHER N. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS FOR -SHRA
IN THE EVENT A FEW -SHRA MANAGE TO POP IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM...FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE 00Z/27
ECMWF IS DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE 12Z/27 GFS IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND
FARTHER S...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. THE 12Z/27 GEM AND 12Z/27
NAM MATCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT DO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE SRN
CWA. WILL TEND TO FAVOR A GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS GIVEN HOW MUCH OF AN
OUTLIER THE ECMWF IS. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS OVER SCENTRAL UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 00Z SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM SUN
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION WED OR THU IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...HOVERING AROUND 20C FROM LATE MON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM MON ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...07
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
412 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW WNW FLOW INTO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. RIDGE THAT EXTENDED FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO SCNTRL
CANADA YESTERDAY IS WEAKENING DUE TO SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING FROM
NRN ALBERTA TO NRN MANITOBA AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM WY
INTO THE WRN PLAINS. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL BEGIN TO BECOME A FCST
ISSUE HERE ON FRI. AFTER MORNING FOG...THE DAY HAS TURNED MOSTLY
SUNNY...THOUGH AN ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER HAS LEFT THE SKY WITH A HAZY
APPEARANCE. TEMPS HAVE REBOUNDED INTO THE MID 60S TO LWR 70S.
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS DRY AIR IN A RELATIVE SENSE
DOMINATES MOST OF THE COLUMN. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND AN INCREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL RESULT IN A WARMER NIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.
EXPECT MINS MOSTLY IN THE 50S...THOUGH DOWNSLOPE AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY NOT FALL BLO 60F.
ON FRI...THE WRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO WI. BEST
WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH FEATURE SHIFTS FROM NRN IA/SRN
MN INTO WI...SO BULK OF PCPN WILL PASS BY TO THE S OF HERE. THAT
AREA IS ALSO WHERE MODELS SHOW HEAVIEST PCPN. PCPN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH MORE LIMITED TO THE N. WHILE HIGH RES WRF-ARW/NMM ARE LIKELY
TOO AGGRESSIVE IN SPREADING PCPN INTO SCNTRL UPPER MI FRI...MOST
MODELS DO BRING SOME PCPN INTO THE SCNTRL IN THE AFTN. WILL PAINT
CHC POPS OVER THE FAR SCNTRL. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER/DAYTIME
HEATING...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY NAM BUILD A LITTLE BIT OF
INSTABILITY PER MLCAPES FARTHER N. HAVE INCLUDED SCHC POPS FOR -SHRA
IN THE EVENT A FEW -SHRA MANAGE TO POP IN THE AFTN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE LONG TERM...FRI
NIGHT AND SAT. A SHORTWAVE IS SET TO MOVE OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE REGION DURING THIS TIME. THE 00Z/27
ECMWF IS DEEPEST AND FARTHEST NORTH WITH THE SHORTWAVE...WITH RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. THE 12Z/27 GFS IS QUITE A BIT WEAKER AND
FARTHER S...KEEPING MOST OF THE CWA DRY. THE 12Z/27 GEM AND 12Z/27
NAM MATCH CLOSER TO THE GFS...BUT DO BRING SOME PRECIP INTO THE SRN
CWA. WILL TEND TO FAVOR A GFS/NAM/GEM CONSENSUS GIVEN HOW MUCH OF AN
OUTLIER THE ECMWF IS. THIS RESULTS IN CHANCE POPS OVER SCENTRAL UPPER
MI FRI NIGHT AND SAT MORNING AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE. DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY 00Z SUN.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION FROM SUN
THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL...BUT
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION WED OR THU IF SHORTWAVE ENERGY CAN ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...BUT CHANCES ARE LOW. THE AIRMASS WILL BE ON
THE RISE...HOVERING AROUND 20C FROM LATE MON THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK. THIS RESULTS IN TEMPS BEING 10 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FROM MON ON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE AREA SHOULD ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THRU THIS FCST PERIOD AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015
A GENERALLY WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE THE UPPER LAKES INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON MOST DAYS...WINDS WILL BE UNDER 15KT...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME PERIODS WHERE GUSTS WILL GET INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE.
LOOKS LIKE THE LIGHTEST WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH
PRES RIDGE MORE FIRMLY IN CONTROL.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
117 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE SHOWER THREAT RIDING EAST THIS MORNING.
THEN DEVELOPMENT OF CLOSED CIRCULATION AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT OVER
THE SOUTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT.
SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS OVER
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. AREA OF MID CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND
THUNDER THE FARTHER SOUTH IN SOUTH DAKOTA. MCS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
SHOULD CONTINUE TO RIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING AND GRADUALLY
DECAY. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
ALONG WITH THE FRONT BAND THAT MOVES ACROSS. JET STREAK RIDING
NORTH OF THE SOUTH DAKOTA COMPLEX SHOULD DRIVE THIS MID CLOUD
LAYER /FORCING EAST DURING THE MORNING. THE TREND OF THE HRRR AND
HRRR-CR BRING THIS AREA EAST TO THE METRO BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAD
TO INCLUDE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR THIS THREAT. NEIGHBORHOOD POPS
FROM THE HIRES CAMS ARE JUST NOW BEGINNING PICK UP ON THIS. DONT
ANTICIPATE ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDER THREAT UNTIL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE SOUTHWEST WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IF FORECAST.
THAT ALL DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH HEATING WILL OCCUR HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALSO TRICKY...WITH THE THICKER CLOUD COVER
POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. MID/UPPER 70S LOOK LIKELY.
THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH PLACEMENT OF
HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN QUARTER OF THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH HOWEVER.
AT THE MOMENT HAVE ABOUT 0.80 TO 1.25 INCHES QPF FORECAST FOR THE
OVERNIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE HIRES CAM SOLUTIONS
WERE MOVING THE HEAVIER QPF SOUTH INTO IOWA. THE 03Z SREF WAS
STILL WAS FOCUSING HEAVIER RAIN ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN SO WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGHER QPF THIS REGION FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OUT ON AN ACTIVE NOTE...AND THEN
FEATURES OVERALL DRY WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF /HEAVY/ RAINFALL CONTINUES TO BE THE
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR FRIDAY...GIVEN MODELS HAVE FLUCTUATED NORTH
AND SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE FARTHEST
NORTH AND MOST PERSISTENT WITH RAIN SPREADING INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA ON FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE OTHER MODELS HAVE TRENDED
THAT WAY. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED CATEGORICAL POPS AS FAR NORTH
AS THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR /INCLUDING THE TWIN CITIES METRO AND
EAU CLAIRE/. THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR STILL LOOKS TO BEAR THE
BRUNT OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHERE ONE TO THREE INCH AMOUNTS
APPEAR POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS /1.75
INCHES/ AND COMBINE WITH A HEALTHY LLVL JET OF 45KTS.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO LINGERS PRECIPITATION WELL INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...GIVEN IT
IS MUCH STRONGER AND SLOWER WITH THE LOW. LEANED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE
OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO CLOSER TO WHAT THE 27.00Z GFS
INDICATES...BUT IT STILL LOOKS LIKE A SOGGY DAY FROM SOUTH/EAST
CENTRAL MN INTO CENTRAL WI. FRIDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IMPACTED NOTABLY WITH THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIP...WITH MID 60S
/SOUTHEAST/ TO MID 70S /NORTHWEST/ EXPECTED.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT MODEL IS SELECTED...WE SHOULD CLEAR OUT FOR
SATURDAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MILD TEMPS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.
THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS MARKED BY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES AS LLVL TEMPS GRADUALLY RISE. SHOULD SEE MID/UPPER
80S FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A WASHED OUT FRONT WILL HANG
OUT NEAR THE AREA MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS ALOFT ARE
LIKELY TOO WARM FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE LACK OF
FORCING. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT THE FORECAST MOSTLY DRY FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST LOOK MAINLY VFR...WITH THE MOST
INTERESTING TIME PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TODAY...EXPECTING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE
STREAMING IN...WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS PUSHING INTO
SOUTHWESTERN MN. RWF WILL BE THE MOST VULNERABLE TO PRECIP THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE MN
BORDER...BUT GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES WIDESPREAD MVFR POSSIBLE.
PUSHED BACK THE ONSET SLIGHTLY...MAINLY VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE MORNING ON FRIDAY. IN FACT...AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THE
CIGS MAY BE LOWEST TOMORROW AFTER DAYBREAK AND WE MAY CARRY MVFR
UNTIL AT LEAST 18Z...POTENTIALLY ALL DAY. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES
IFR CIGS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT READY TO BITE ON THAT AT THIS TIME
WITH THE LOW BEING SO FAR SOUTH.
KMSP...MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY SOUTH OF MSP...BUT STILL
EXPECT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT RAIN AT MSP EARLY TOMORROW.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS S 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. WINDS S 5-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...SPD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GLASGOW MT
258 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE EMBEDDED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WHICH RODE UP AND AROUND THE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF MONTANA. ANY REMAINING
CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE MANIFESTED BY A RESIDUAL VERY SMALL-SCALE KINK IN
THE FLOW ALOFT APPROACHING FROM CENTRAL MONTANA AS THE UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE NOW BEGINS TO RE-ASSERT ITSELF ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN
WITH THE TIME FRAME VERY NEAR...MODELS ARE STILL IN SIGNIFICANT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ACROSS NE
MONTANA THROUGH THIS EVENING. GFS AND HRRR ARE NEARLY COMPLETELY
DRY...THE NAM SHOWS A FEW SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP...AND
THE EC CONTINUES TO HOLD ON TO A WIDE AREA OF WETTING RAIN ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. BY LATE TONIGHT...IT WILL BECOME
EVIDENT WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS MORE TRUSTWORTHY IN THE NEAR SHORT
TERM.
REGARDLESS...EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT SHOWS
MUCH BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS IN KEEPING NE MONTANA DRY AS A BONE
UNDER A DECENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. INDEED...HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY WILL EASILY REACH 100 DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. AT
THIS TIME...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL GENERALLY STILL BE HELD IN
CHECK AS SATURDAYS WIND SPEEDS MAY BE AROUND A BORDERLINE 15 MPH
WITH RH VALUES ALSO IN THE LOWER TEENS. WILL NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON THE POSSIBILITY FOR SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AND/OR SLIGHTLY
DRIER RH VALUES...WHICH WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
LATER ON SATURDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO TURN MORE FROM THE
SW...COURTESY OF THE LARGE PACNW TROUGH WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH OFF AND ON CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT. BMICKELSON
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
GOING FORECAST LOOKED GOOD. MODEL CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION IS
LOW AS STRONG UNSTABLE SW JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A DRY DESERT AIR
MASS. TFJ
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HOT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY IN THE EAST PACIFIC MOVES
ONSHORE. THIS TROF WILL BE REINFORCED BY WAVES DROPPING OUT OF
ALASKA...MAINTAINING THE TROF OVER WESTERN CANADA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWING THE FRONT. AS THE
UPPER TROF MOVES ONSHORE...SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO EASTERN MONTANA
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY WORK INTO THE REGION BUT NONE OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS INDICATE SIGNIFICANT UPPER ENERGY TO TRIGGER
PRECIPITATION. EBERT
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE KGGW VICINITY THIS
LATE TODAY...OTHERWISE EXPECT CLOUDS AOA 10K AGL AND LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SMOKE MAY RETURN TO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY WITH THE WEST WINDS
RETURNING. TFJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NEXT FOCUS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE SATURDAY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF OVER THE
REGION. A BREEZY TO SLIGHTLY GUSTY SOUTH WIND WILL SET UP.
SATURDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND
THE LOWEST RH VALUES WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS.
ONLY SLIGHT CHANGES IN THESE PARAMETERS WOULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR SATURDAY. WILL DEFER TO NEXT THE SHIFT AS SATURDAY IS STILL
DAY 3 OF THE FORECAST. BMICKELSON
&&
.GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE SRN 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA.
THAT COMBINED WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE ENOUGH TO TAME TEMPS DOWN
A TAD...MOST NOTICEABLE IT SEEMS IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY INTO NW
MN AS WINDS ARE THE LIGHTEST. SO LOWERED HIGHS TODAY DOWN A FEW
RRV AND EAST. O/W ANY PRECIP REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE BORDER
AND WILL DO SO.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN LOW END PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND NORTH AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER SD ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION ZONE
AND ON NOSE OF LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF E WYO SHORT WAVE. SOME
WEAKER ECHOES FARTHER NORTH CLIPPING THE THE FAR SW FA HOWEVER
HAVE DOUBTS THAT ANY OF THIS REACHING THE GROUND. HRRR HANDLING
CURRENT CONVECTION WELL AND AS STRONGER CONVECTION OUTRUNS
INSTABILITY AXIS AND LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS
THEY CLIP THE ND/SD BORDER AREA LATER THIS MORNING. BASED ON THIS
SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. COULD
SEE SOME MORE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ACROSS NE HOWEVER MOST CAM/SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS
JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. COOLEST READINGS LIKELY ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. OTHERWISE WITH FAIRLY WARM COLUMN AND
WARMER START TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER TO AT OR A BIT ABOVE
AVERAGE.
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE NE/SD BORDER
AREA TO NEAR SUX BY FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE NORTHERN FRINGE OF PCPN SHIELD POSSIBLY CLIPPING FAR
SOUTHERN FA SO WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS THERE. WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECOVERY MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER.
LOW PULLS AWAY FRIDAY WITH COLUMN CONTINUING TO WARM. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS S MB FRIDAY NIGHT MAY BRING SOME PCPN
POTENTIAL TO NORTHERN AREAS. LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL JET
SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE AND ANY RESIDUAL CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN
EARLY SATURDAY.
COLUMN CONTINUES TO WARM SATURDAY SO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH WESTERN AREAS APPROACHING 90.
THE EXTENDED PERIOD STARTS WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE NRN
PLAINS ALLOWING WARMER TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 80S...TO REMAIN OVER
THE AREA. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE BY MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROF
BEGINS TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...BRINGING SW
FLOW ALOFT TO THE AREA. A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO PROPAGATE THROUGH THE FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO COOL A BIT...TO MORE
SEASONAL VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS...SOME PATCHY BKN MID CLOUD AT BJI
EARLY THIS AFTN OTHERWISE HIGH CIRRUS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE THAN EXPECTED...BUT NO BIG
CHANGES ON OVERALL MAX TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE DAY. CURRENT
FORECAST ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 949 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR MODEL EACH HOUR INDICATE WANING CHANCES FOR
ANY SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA WAS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA. HAVE TRIMMED CHANCES IN NORTH
DAKOTA TO SLIGHT CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOWEVER...KEPT CHANCE
MENTIONS IN THE SOUTH WITH MODELS INDICATING AFTERNOON CAPE AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AVAILABLE...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION. PATCHY FOG WAS DISSIPATING
ACROSS THE REGION...THUS THE EARLIER UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG
UNTIL AROUND 10 AM CDT LOOKS ON TRACK.
OTHERWISE ONLY HOURLY TRENDS IN TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WERE UPDATED
WITH NO CHANGES IN THE OVERALL EXPECTED TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
CONVECTION TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
UPSTREAM NEXT SHORTWAVE IS TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING. STILL
A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA
BUT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. DID KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE FAR
SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN BEGAN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH MID TO LATE MORNING. STILL JUST LOOKING AT CHC POPS FAR
SOUTH TODAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE UP TO THE I94 CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN THE
SOUTH HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN WYOMING...TRIGGERING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. AS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE
SOUTH DAKOTA NEBRASKA BORDER...PRECIPITATION SHOULD
EXPAND...NUDGING INTO THE COUNTY WARNING AREA LATER THIS MORNING
AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN OUR MOST SOUTHERN ZONES...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 94. WITH MEAGER INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
FORECAST...SEVERE WEATHER DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. THURSDAY
WILL ALSO FEATURE WARMER TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER 80S CREEP INTO
THE WEST.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THURSDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TO
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST FORCING MECHANISMS WILL
REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
WARM TEMPERATURES AND PERIODIC THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE CENTRAL U.S OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...THEN TRANSLATES TO THE EASTERN CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT FRIDAY ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE BUILDING RIDGE. BUT WILL
KEEP A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FORECAST HIGH ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S EAST TO LOWER 90S WEST ON FRIDAY. THEN UPPER 80S
EAST TO UPPER 90S WEST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WEST...COOLING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
CAPPING IN PLACE AND A RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BE MEAGER. A MODEL BLEND BRINGS MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS TO THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE PASSES TO OUR EAST AND
WE REMAIN IN A BROAD SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE NOT HINTING
AT ANY MAJOR SYSTEMS...WE CAN EXPECT DAILY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS SHORTWAVES TRAVEL THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE ON FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING.
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA WITH
SOME HAZE ORIGINATING FROM WILDFIRES IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SHOWERS IN SOUTH DAKOTA ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING EAST MAY BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS - POSSIBLY THUNDER - TO FAR
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...BUT
WILL NOT MENTION FARTHER NORTH AT KDIK...KBIS...KJMS TAFS. LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE - ESPECIALLY KMOT/KBIS/KDIK/KJMS MAY ALLOW MORE
FOG FORMATION FRIDAY MORNING...BUT WOULD LIKELY BE PATCHY AND
CONFIDENCE LOW AT THIS TIME TO MENTION IN LATER HOURS OF TAF
PERIOD - 11Z-14Z FRIDAY. DRY LOW LEVEL AIR BEGINS MOVING INTO KISN
AROUND 09Z AND SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...ZH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
104 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AN MCS HAS DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND WILL
HAS BEGUN MOVING INTO OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS COMPLEX HAS A
HISTORY OF VERY STRONG WINDS WITH MIDLAND SD REPORTING 79 MPH GUSTS
AS IT MOVED OVERHEAD. GIVEN THAT THIS COMPLEX IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST...THINK THAT THE SEVERE WIND THREAT WILL
BE GREATEST IN OUR SOUTH CENTRAL SD COUNTIES. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT IT
WILL SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT HEADS EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
THINK THIS THIS INITIAL WAVE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
APPROACH I29 SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES
THROUGH SW MN AND NW IA THROUGH MIDDAY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
SORT OF BREAK IN ACTIVITY BEHIND THIS COMPLEX...BUT THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE
MISSOURI RIVER AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW DIGGING INTO CENTRAL
SD...WILL IGNITE FURTHER CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WARM AIR
AND MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. THIS INITIAL
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED IN THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA LATE
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.
THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY TRUDGES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY ACROSS THE I29 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EASTWARD.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND TONIGHT...SO
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER 3 HOURS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED...WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS POINT. BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL RATHER LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS OF THE UPPER WAVE THERE IS A
SMALL THREAT FOR MARGINAL HAIL OR WINDS...MAINLY NEAR THE MO VALLEY.
BY LATE EVENING THIS THREAT DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY...AS WILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH THUNDER AT ALL. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HAMPERED A
BIT BY THE CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY...BUT WILL BE MILD IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE FRONT WEIGHTED AT THE START OF
THE LONGER RANGE. DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL WAVE SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE
TO BEING CENTERED RIGHT OVER THE FSD CWA AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT STILL
DEALING WITH A COUPLE DISTINCT COMMUNITIES OF SOLUTIONS...ONE A BIT
MORE NORTHWARD CONSISTING OF MOST OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS...AND
ONE MORE SOUTHWARD CONSISTING OF THE CANADIAN AND WRF-ARW/WRF NMM.
SOME HINTS IN THE WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SUGGEST A BIT MORE
CREDENCE SHOULD BE GIVEN TO THIS SUBSET...WITH STRONGER OF THE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH AND WHAT IMPACT THE CURRENT MCS WILL
HAVE ON BOUNDARY LOCATION. WHEREVER THE EXACT UPPER LOW SETS UP BY
EARLY FRIDAY...THE EASTERN CWA WILL REMAIN IN A PRECIPITATION
FAVORED DYNAMIC SET UP.
ONE THING THAT MAY BE A CHALLENGE IS GETTING A GREAT COVERAGE OF
THUNDER...WITH MOST PROFILES SIDING CLOSER TO MOIST NEUTRAL NEAR AND
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW. CONTINUE TO SHOW TRAJECTORY WRAPPING MID LEVEL
FRONTAL SUPPORT AND PRECIPITATION BEHIND SYSTEM...SO WILL CONTINUE
WITH A PERIOD OF CATEGORICAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE MORNING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...BUT ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FROM WEST TO EAST.
EVEN IF PRECIPITATION DOES END OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS
LINGER OVER MOST OF THE AREA TO IMPACT HEATING. WILL LIKELY HOLD
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE FAR EAST...AND SOME LATE DAY SUNSHINE
SHOULD PUSH TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 IN THE WEST.
CONCERN GOING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO SLOWLY
PULL EASTWARD IS JUST HOW MUCH PUSH THE STRATUS FIELD WILL GET
BEFORE FLOW WEAKENS WITH BUILDING RIDGE. MOST OF THE CWA TRAJECTORY
WOULD FAVOR DRYING...BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COULD SEE STRATUS LINGER
INTO MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN NOT IMPOSSIBLE FOR THERE TO BE SOME
AREAS OF FOG WITHIN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TOWARD THE I29 CORRIDOR.
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD SOUTHERLY OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA AS WE MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THIS SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BE A FEATURE OF THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.
FEATURES...IN FACT...ARE FAIRLY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
COUPLE OF WAVES PUSHING OVER A POSITIVELY TILTED RIDGE. POTENTIALLY
COULD GET A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LAY DOWN ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR NOW WITH THE WARMISH TEMPS ALOFT AND
DISTINCT LACK OF CONVERGENCE ANYWHERE NEAR THE AREA...HAVE REMOVED
ATTEMPT BY BLENDED INITIALIZATION FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF LOWER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. OTHERWISE...TEMPS APPEAR TO HAVE A BIT OF A
COOL BIAS IN THE BLEND AND HAVE PUSHED MOST DAYTIME READINGS UP A
COUPLE DEGREES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPTED TO DO MORE...BUT
INCREASED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT
SHOULD KEEP SURFACE TEMPS BELOW MAXIMUM MIXING. READINGS IN THE WEST
WILL OCCASIONALLY PUSH INTO THE LOWER 90S...WHILE GENERALLY 80S
PREVAIL EACH DAY CENTRAL AND EAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MAINLY HOLD
IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 101 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHEAST NEBRASKA TONIGHT. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD INITIALL PRODUCE SOME HAIL AND WIND...BUT THE
BIGGER CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. THIS MAY IMPACT THE KFSD
TAF...WITH A GREATER IMPACT AT KSUX. LOWER CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP
BEHIND THE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1210 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AT 3 AM...A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WAS MOVING EAST ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT HANDLED WELL BY THE
DETERMINISTIC NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ARW AND
NMM BRING THIS SYSTEM INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS SEEMS A BIT TOO MUCH OVER DONE CONSIDERING THE DRY DEW POINTS
OVER THE AREA. THE HRRR ALSO MOVES THIS SYSTEM EAST AND WEAKENS IT
ACROSS MINNESOTA. HOWEVER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE ALONG A BAND OF 700 TO 500 MB FRONTOGENESIS. WITH SO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...OPTED TO GO MORE OF A BLEND THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER DID NOT INCLUDE ANY
PRECIPITATION INTO CLARK AND TAYLOR COUNTIES AT THIS TIME.
FOR TONIGHT...THE NAM...GFS...AND ECMWF TRACK THE SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA BORDER. WITH MUCH OF THE 950 TO
500 MB FRONTOGENESIS REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT KEPT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW CYCLOGENESIS
TAKES PLACE ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY. THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION IN THE
MESO MODELS THAT THE STRONGER WAVE COMING OUT OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE LOCATED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH AS THE SHORT
WAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF UTAH THIS MORNING. IF THIS SCENARIO
COMES TRUE...WE MAY BE TOO FAR NORTH WITH THE RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
FROM FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE 27.00Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS...NAM...AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG 950 TO 500 MB
FRONTOGENESIS AND 925 TO 850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. THIS OCCURS AS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH LIFTS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF NEBRASKA. DESPITE THE LACK OF A
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGE AROUND 1.6 INCHES
AND WARM CLOUD LAYER DEPTHS RANGING BETWEEN 4 AND 4.5 KM...THERE
WILL BE COALESCENCE OF THE RAIN DROPLETS...THUS...HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BAND OF 3 TO 4 INCHES.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS MORE REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE
INSTABILITY WITH A 1 TO 3 INCH BAND.
WHILE THERE IS GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST THESE MODELS...THERE IS
SOME CONCERN THAT THE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST UTAH MAY CAUSE THE SURFACE LOW TO TAKE A MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK ACROSS IOWA. THE ARW...NMM...GEM...AND 11 OF THE 12
GFS MEMBERS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A POSSIBILITY. IF
THIS SCENARIO DID COME TRUE...THAN THE RAIN BAND WOULD HAVE TO BE
SHIFTED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH WHICH WOULD BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY
DRY AND MODERATE DROUGHT AREAS OF SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND
NORTHEAST IOWA.
FOR THE TIME BEING...STAY WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS...NAM...
AND ECMWF AND WILL WATCH TO SEE HOW THE CYCLOGENESIS DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY.
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND
26 TO 27C...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE RIVER VALLEYS WILL LIKELY
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 90S...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. SINCE
THIS HAS BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL...RAISED THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH DAYS BY 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE
RIVER VALLEYS AND 2 DEGREES ELSEWHERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS MORNING. THE 27.12Z GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED
CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS OF MOVING THIS SURFACE LOW
NORTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL OCCUR AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING ACROSS WYOMING MERGES
WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH COMING OUT OF COLORADO TO FORM A
UNIFIED SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THE FORCING AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL START TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. A BAND OF LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL START TO TAKE
SHAPE ALONG THE IOWA/MINNESOTA BORDER NORTH OF THE EXPECTED
POSITION OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT. THE ISENTROPIC UP GLIDE ON THE
300K SURFACE WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 4 UBAR/S ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE WARM FRONT...BUT THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF
THE AREA THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AND SHOULD SPREAD IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE A BIT SLOWER ON THE 27.12Z NAM
AND 27.15Z HRRR-CR...SO WILL SHOW A VCSH FOR SOME SPRINKLES OUT OF
A HIGH VFR DECK COMING IN LATE TONIGHT WITH PREDOMINANT SHOWERS
FOR KRST AROUND 28.11Z AND 28.14Z FOR KLSE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
INITIALLY BE VFR BUT GO DOWN TO MVFR AS THE HEAVIER RAINS START TO
MOVE TO SATURATE THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER. EXPECTING IFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP BUT NOT UNTIL AFTER 18Z FRIDAY. THE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY LIMITED...BUT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF THE FORCING THERE PROBABLY WILL BE SOME EMBEDDED
STORMS WITH THE SHOWERS. HOWEVER...THE CONFIDENCE ON WHERE AND
WHEN THESE MAY OCCUR TO TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN EITHER TAF AT THIS
TIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
BOTH THE GFS AND NAM ARE SUGGESTING 3 TO 4 INCHES RAIN ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR. MEANWHILE THE THE ECMWF HAS
1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN IN THIS SAME GENERAL LOCATION. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY LOCATED AROUND THE AREA...THOUGHT THAT
THE ECMWF AMOUNTS SEEMED A BIT MORE REALISTIC...SO TRENDED THE
QPFS TOWARD IT. ELSEWHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE LESS THAN
AN INCH.
HOWEVER AS STATED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION WILL HAVE TO
WATCH HOW THIS HEAVY RAINFALL BAND DEVELOPS TONIGHT...BECAUSE 11
OF 12 OF GFS FAMILY MEMBERS...GEM...ARW...AND NMM HAVE THE
HEAVIEST QPF BAND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 90 CORRIDOR WHICH WOULD
BE GREAT FOR THE ABNORMALLY DRY AND DROUGHT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WITH HOURLY RAIN RATES LESS THAN AN INCH AN HOUR...NOT ANTICIPATING
ANY ISSUES WITH URBANIZED FLOODING. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS HAVE FLOWS CURRENTLY RUNNING ANYWHERE FROM 25 TO 50 PERCENT
OF CLIMATOLOGY. AS A RESULT...THIS RAIN SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN BANK
RISES.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BOYNE
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...04
HYDROLOGY...BOYNE