Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/26/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

230 PM MST MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANT MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
COMBINATION OF WEAK MCVS AND INVERTED TROUGHS ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONE IN NRN MEXICO. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
DEPICTED EROSION OF CAPPING ALOFT WITH MOIST H5 TEMPERATURES COOLING
TO -7C TO -8C YIELDING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPER THAN USUAL FOR
THE MONSOON SEASON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SFC-H7 MOISTURE LEVELS WERE
SAMPLED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLES DAYS (ONLY 10-11 G/KG)
LEADING TO MLCAPES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG.

SEVERAL CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
PROPAGATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DEEP
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE DEEPER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MARCHING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM HIGH TERRAIN
STORM INITIATION POINTS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER HIGH
TERRAIN...LOWERING INSTABILITY AND HINDERING ORGANIZED STORM
FORMATION. STRONGER JET LEVEL DIFLUENCE WAS LOCATED IN NRN
MEXICO...AND SHOULD BEGIN FORMULATING NORTHWARD BUT POSSIBLY NOT
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

MORNING TRENDS IN THE HRRR AS WELL AS 12Z LOCAL WRF CORES SUGGESTED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING THROUGHOUT THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW
BRINGING DEEP OUTFLOWS AND LINEAR ASCENT TOWARDS THE PHOENIX METRO.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR TRENDS AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY
YIELD HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW FALLING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. SHOULD MORE BACKED WINDS UPSTREAM AT H7 AND
BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER BE ADVECTED WESTWARD...THAN MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...ANY
ACTIVITY AFFECTING CNTRL ARIZONA MAY BE MORE DELAYED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEARLY AREAWIDE...PEAKING TUESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM INVERTED TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
DIVERGENCE ROTATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES PUSHING BEHIND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH PWATS IN A 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE (NEARLY THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS MEAN). ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED POP
CHANCES...SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT LEAST DRAWING THEM BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
/104 FOR PHOENIX AND 106 FOR YUMA/. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY
BE COOLER FOR LOCALES AFFECTED BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-
COOLED OUTFLOWS...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE MAJORITY MODEL
OUTPUT SUPPORT SUB-100 DEGREE HIGHS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REPOSITIONING RIDGE CENTER. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
OLD MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ML AND UL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAKE UP SOUTHWESTERLY HEADINGS AGAIN...ONLY SLOWLY
THINNING AND DRAWING DOWN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...POP CHANCES START DECREASING MORE NOTABLY BEGINNING
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES BACK TO OUR SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS/PWATS
CONTINUE TO THIN...AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM PROMPTING SFC
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WARMEST WESTERN DESERTS...INCLUDING EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND TACNA...COULD HIT THE 110F MARK BY FRIDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE LOCATIONS AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO AND GILA BEND...COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
THE 110F MARK BY THE WEEKEND. OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /1981-
2010/ THE AVERAGE LAST 110F DAY IN PHOENIX FALLS ON AUGUST 26TH
/SEPTEMBER 6TH FOR YUMA/. WE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH PAST THE AVERAGE
LAST DAY IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND WORK TO CINCH THE
TOP SPOT FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCALES TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DISTANT MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE PHOENIX AREA ALONG WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

THROUGH 04Z TUE...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...SCT TO BKN CLDS AOA 14
THSD MSL. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE. FROM 04Z TUE THROUGH 18Z THU...LGT
EAST WIND UNDER 9 KNOTS. BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 04Z TUE...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL. ISOLATED TSTM. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS. FROM 04Z TUE TO 18Z TUE...SOUTH
WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 16 THSD MSL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RELEGATE
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN-
DRIVEN AND CONSEQUENTLY AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

925 AM MST MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED TO OUR EAST...RESULTING IN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANT MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THIS MORNING...WITH A
COMBINATION OF MCVS AND INVERTED TROUGHS ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONE. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS DEPICTED
EROSION OF CAPPING ALOFT WITH MOIST H5 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO -7C
TO -8C YIELDING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPER THAN USUAL FOR THE
MONSOON SEASON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SFC-H7 MOISTURE LEVELS WERE
SAMPLED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLES DAYS ("ONLY" 10-11
G/KG) LEADING TO MLCAPES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER (JUST APPROACHING 500
J/KG THIS MORNING).

TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL WRF CORES ARE
LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING
THROUGHOUT THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH FAVORABLE
STEERING FLOW AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE BRINGING DEEP
OUTFLOWS CAPABLE OF STRONG ASCENT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHOENIX
METRO. WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL MIXED LAYER MOISTURE...STRONGER LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
MIDLEVELS JUSTIFY THESE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL TRENDS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...MADE REVISIONS TO POP FORECASTS BASED ON SATELLITE AND HRRR
TRENDS...AS WELL AS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/439 AM MST MON AUG 24 2015/
RICH COMPLEXITY REMAINS IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. AS THE SOUTHWEST
RETURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON REGIME...THE COMBINATION OF PASSING
ML AND UL WAVES/ITS...MCVS FROM THE STORM COMPLEXES THAT DO DEVELOP
AND DEBRIS CLOUDS/WORKED OVER BOUNDARY LAYERS MAKE IT CHALLENGING TO
PINPOINT WHAT PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK MAY BE BEST FOR STORMS.
FOR TODAY...CONVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY A FEW HOURS COMPARED TO THAT
ON SUNDAY...WHICH HAD STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIM BY MIDDAY. MOST HI-
RES MODELS AND FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TO THE 21-00Z RANGE OF SEEING
CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND MORE ISO. POCKETS OF SE AZ...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. ONE CONTINUING TREND
IN FCST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BACKING OFF OF THE CAPE
FORECAST...WITH NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AT AND AFTER 00Z. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT/DIFLUENCE
COURTESY OF THE 300/250MB CIRC CENTERS STILL WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE
IN SUPPORTING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEARLY AREAWIDE...PEAKING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPSTREAM
INVERTED TROUGHS ROTATES IN TO ACT ON THE ALREADY DEEP MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE...NOW WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND
PUSHING 90TH PERCENTILE OF NAEFS MEAN PWATS. ALONG WITH THE
ELEVATED/ABOVE CLIMO POP CHANCES...SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER
SHOULD WORK TO COOL DAYTIME HIGHS...AT LEAST DRAWING THEM BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /104 FOR PHOENIX AND 106 FOR YUMA/ AND POSSIBLY
COOLER FOR LOCALES COOLED BY PRECIP ACTIVITY AND RAIN-COOLED
OUTFLOWS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED IT SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO THE REPOSITIONING RIDGE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION ACROSS NM
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ML AND UL FLOW WILL TAKE UP
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADINGS AGAIN...GRADUALLY THINNING AND DRAWING DOWN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AND IN TURN...DECREASING OUR POP
CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A LATER ONSET FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR
MOST OF TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY IS HIGH FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THESE STORMS TO DESCEND OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE
PHOENIX AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATEST TAFS REFLECT THE ACTIVITY PUSHING WEST OF
THE AREA AROUND 10Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

1017 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS CLEARED THE FORECAST AREA. IN ITS WAKE...AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...USHERING IN COOLER AND
LESS HUMID AIR INTO THE REGION AS WELL AS SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WORK WEEK AND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND RESULTING IN MAINLY FAIR WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED THE FORECAST AREA AS EVIDENCED BY
DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO THE MID 50S.

WITH THE COLD FRONT/S DEPARTURE...CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST AS
WELL. THIS WILL LEAVE US DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE NORTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY WHERE THE HRRR DEPICTS
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT SHRA BRUSHING BY.

SKIES WILL RANGE FROM PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR...ALTHOUGH SOLID
OVERCAST WEST OF CWA WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN TIME OF THE YEAR...AND SOME SHRA ACTIVITY AROUND
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS AND THIS TOO IS
REFLECTED IN THE FORECAST. ANY FOG THAT FORMS WILL BE LOCALLY
DENSE ESPECIALLY TOWARDS SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

MAIN UPDATE WAS TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AND
ADJUST CLOUDS AND TEMPS TO BRING INTO AGREEMENT WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD AS MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY. IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...THIS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL HAVE LIMITED EFFECTS ON THE REGION...WITH THE PRIMARY
THREAT BEING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THESE SHOWERS
MAY EVEN TAKE ON CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AT
TIMES AS WELL AS THE UPPER-LEVEL COLD POOL SLIDES OVERHEAD.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION CAN EXPECT AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...BUT STILL RESULTING IN PARTLY CLOUDY/PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
IN FACT...PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY MAY SEE LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF CLOUD COVER AS AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE BEGINS RIDGING IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN FAVORED VALLEY AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR SOURCES OF
WATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE LOCALLY DENSE AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE
LEVELS AND FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE WITH A LESS HUMID AIRMASS IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...TO MID AND UPPER
70S ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION...WITH PORTIONS OF THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY POSSIBLY CRACKING 80. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 50S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO COLDER THAN
WEDNESDAY AS THE CORE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS
THROUGH...RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST CALLS FOR TRANQUIL WEATHER TO OVERSPREAD
THE ENTIRE REGION FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE LONG TERM PERIOD. LATEST
28/12Z MODEL AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ARE IN ACCORD THAT A BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SOME MODEL RUNS HAVING THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER OUR SOUTHERN REGION BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC ESTABLISHING A SOUTH AND SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND. WITH THIS WARM AND HUMID AIR ESTABLISHED IN THE REGION...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING EAST ACROSS
ONTARIO/QUEBEC...THERE MAYBE A VERY ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER AND
PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER IN OUR FAR NORTHERN AREAS IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN THAT WOULD BE DIURNALLY TRIGGERED. OTHERWISE A SECOND HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION NEXT WEEK FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ALONG WITH AN LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINNING TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL ESTABLISH TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO START THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BEGIN NEAR
AVERAGE AND RISE TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE GO INTO WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY REACHING THE MID TO
UPPER 80S.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAIN ISSUE FOR TERMINALS WILL BE HOW MUCH IFR BR/FG DEVELOPS
TONIGHT. ONLY TERMINAL THAT SAW ANY RAIN OF SIGNIFICANCE TODAY WAS
KALB. WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT AND AT LEAST PARTLY CLOUD SKIES SHOULD
ALLOW FOR IFR BR AND FG TO FORM AT KGFL AND KPSF. I HAVE NOT
BROUGHT IFR CONDITIONS IN TO ALBANY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT-FRI NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT
BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY
ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WEDNESDAY AND INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND USHERING IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS.

RH VALUES WILL MAKE NORMAL RECOVERIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TO BETWEEN 80 AND 100 PERCENT. RH VALUES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 45 TO 60 PERCENT. WINDS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 5 TO 10 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH. WINDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 MPH.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A
QUARTER OF AN INCH...ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS.

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PRIMARILY DRY
WEATHER.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...IRL/OKEEFE
NEAR TERM...IRL/OKEEFE
SHORT TERM...IRL
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...IRL
HYDROLOGY...IRL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

950 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN FOR MID AND LATE WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO SATURDAY. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER
HUMIDITIES RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
945 PM UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL MA IS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY AS DRIER AIR
IN THE COLUMN SPREADS EAST WITH RAPIDLY LOWERING KI. WE STILL HAVE
OVER 1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE CENTRAL AND E NEW ENG AND GUIDANCE SHOWS
THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTING TO E NEW ENG OVERNIGHT WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND HIGHER KI WILL LINGER AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT. SO
FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS OR ISOLATED TSTMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD WILL SHIFT TO RI AND E MA. HRRR IS TOO ROBUST WITH ITS
CONVECTION IN E NEW ENG...BUT CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLD TSTM OVERNIGHT HERE WHERE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE REMAIN.
NOTICED A FEW SHOWERS STARTING TO DEVELOP IN SE CT AND W RI.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE
DECREASE IN HUMIDITY IN W NEW ENG AS DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE
50S...BUT REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S IN SE NEW ENG.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW LINGERS OVER QUEBEC WITH CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION ALOFT OVER NEW ENGLAND. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SUPPLIES
SUBSIDENCE NEAR GROUND. PLENTY OF DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND A
MOIST LAYER ABOVE 850 MB. EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS
WEDNESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE A FAIR DAY WITH MIXING REACHING UP TO
825 MB AND POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER. TEMPS AT THAT LEVEL WILL
SUPPORT MAX SFC TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. DEW POINTS WILL TREND
LOWER /MORE COMFORTABLE/ WITH AFTERNOON VALUES IN THE MID 50S TO
AROUND 60.

FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST
WIND. MIN TEMPS WILL REACH NEAR DEW POINT MOST PLACES WITH VALUES
IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S...A LITTLE HIGHER IN BOSTON AND ALONG
THE CAPE AND ISLANDS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
DURING THE THU-SAT TIMEFRAME...WEAKENING THE EASTERN LONG WAVE
TROUGHING AS CUTOFF LOW LIFTS NE OVER EASTERN CANADA. UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE THIS WEEK.
LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. INTO THIS WEEKEND.

DO NOTE DIVERGENCE IN SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
WEEKEND...NAMELY THE 06Z/12Z GFS...IN HANDLING LINGERING H5 SHORT
WAVE WEAKNESS. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES KEEP THIS HANGING AROUND
THE GREAT LAKES INTO OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE GFS SHIFTS IT E MUCH
FASTER AND OVERDOES THE PRECIP FIELD. ON SATURDAY...IT TRIES TO
WORK MOISTURE UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AROUND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OFFSHORE...THEN SHIFTS SHORT WAVE ENERGY E AROUND THE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THE 00Z ECMWF/GGEM KEEP THIS
WEAKNESS WELL W OF THE REGION AND NOT NEARLY AS MUCH CONVECTION
WITH IT AS THE HIGH PRES OFFSHORE REMAINS IN CONTROL. GEFS/ECENS
MEANS ALSO KEEP A MAINLY DRY FORECAST GOING...SO LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER SOLUTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE HIGH PRES RETURNS AS W-NW FLOW
ALOFT TAKES OVER WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING INTO
HUDSON AND JAMES BAYS. SW SURFACE WINDS TAKE OVER...WHICH BRING
WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER HUMIDITY.

LEANED TOWARD AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST...THEN TRANSITIONED TOWARD THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS E OUT OF THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS.

A GENERAL W-NW FLOW IN PLACE FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THEN RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS E ON SATURDAY BRINGING RETURN TO SW WINDS AND GRADUALLY
INCREASING HUMIDITY.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODEL SOLUTION DIVERGENCE DUE TO TIMING OF
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION. LEANED TOWARD THE HPC
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD. KEPT A DRY FORECAST GOING. WILL ALSO SEE
TEMPS RISE...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. INTO CENTRAL
CANADA...KEEPING MAINLY DRY FLOW IN PLACE. SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE
TO DIVERGENCE WITH EARLIER SOLUTIONS...THOUGH LOOKING A BIT MORE
CONFIDENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME...WHICH IS BACK TO SCHOOL FOR SOME. BOTH MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES ARE HINTING AT UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT
WITH MVFR AND SOME IFR. MAIN FOCUS FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLD
TSTM OVERNIGHT WILL BE ACROSS RI AND E MA. WIND SHIFT TO LIGHT NW
FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT WITH FROPA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR. PATCHY IFR
IN FOG LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
THOUGH SOME MVFR PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. LOW PROB FOR A SHOWER OR
TSTM OVERNIGHT.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. COULD SEE WEAK
SEA BREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINES. MAY SEE BRIEF PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT ACROSS NORMALLY PRONE INTERIOR VALLEYS.

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 25 KNOTS AND 5 FEET THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT
AND MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WATERS...POSSIBLY A TSTM.

AREAS OF FOG ON THE EASTERN MASS WATERS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE
WIND SHIFT. ADDITIONAL FOG WILL AFFECT THE WATERS IN THE LIGHT
FLOW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA AS HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL. EXPECT W-NW WINDS THU-FRI...SHIFTING TO
S-SW FRI NIGHT-SUNDAY.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WTB/EVT
NEAR TERM...KJC
SHORT TERM...WTB
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...KJC/WTB/EVT
MARINE...WTB/EVT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1022 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...RATHER AMORPHOUS LCL PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE ATTM. A
WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED WELL OFFSHORE THE SERN CONUS...READILY
APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 75.4W...DRIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOWS UP
IN WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE SC/GA
COASTS ACROSS NORTH FL TO NEAR CEDAR KEY. DIFF PVA OCCURRING WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWED FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHRA/TS TO FORM TO THE
N/NW OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY AND ITS ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BDRY IS
SAGGING SE TWD NRN LAKE VOLUSIA CO ATTM.

XMR MORNING RAOB...MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...CONTINUES TO
SHOW A TYPICALLY MOIST LATE AUGUST AIR MASS WITH PWATS REMAINING
AROUND 2.0...WITH A WARM H50 TEMP OF -4.0C. SMALL DRY POCKET IS SEEN
IN THE H100-H85 LAYER...JUST OFF THE DECK. TBW SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWAT (1.9" AND A LITTLE BIT COOLER (-5.0C) AT H50. MEAN LAYER WIND
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN HAS BECOME WRLY AVERAGING ABOUT 10-13KT
FROM H85 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH H20.

REST OF TODAY...MID LVL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND DAMPEN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. EXPECT EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE ACTIVITY THAT
IS ENCROACHING THE NWRN CWA...WITH WCSB DOMINANT AND BECOMING FAIRLY
ACTIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE WSW TO W WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SLOW INLAND PUSH OF ECSB. COUPLED
WITH WRLY STEERING FLOW...THIS APPEARS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE NRN/ERN CWA...FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY.
PLAN TO MAKE GRID ADJUSTMENTS TWD THAT END...BUMPING THOSE AREAS UP
TO 50 FOR TODAY. OTRW...NIL CHGS.

.AVIATION...THRU 25/12Z

SFC WINDS: THRU 24/16Z...W/SW 3-5KTS ALL SITES. BTWN 24/16Z-18Z...
BCMG E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES. BTWN 24/20Z-23Z BCMG E/SE 7-10KTS
INTERIOR SITES. BTWN 25/01Z-04Z...BCMG S/SW AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 24/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF KISM-KDAB
MVG E/SE ARND 15KTS...SLGT CHC +TSRA WITH SFC WND G35KTS VCNTY KLEE.
BTWN 24/17Z-23Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KISM-KDAB...SLGT CHC
+TSRA WITH SFC WND G35KTS VCNTY KSFB/KDAB/KTIX. BTWN 24/23Z-25/01Z
BCMG VFR ALL SITES.

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY AND C-MAN DATA INDICATE A RATHER LIGHT...
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW <10KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT. WINDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO A E/SE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TS...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE...PRIMARY CONCERN
BECOMES STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

FORECAST/UPDATE...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX/AVIATION...BRAGAW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015/

TONIGHT...EXPECT DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN MID/LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS
THINNING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE L90S ALONG THE COAST AND
M90S INTO THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 100 AND
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST WELL INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

TUE...A TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO N FL WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COASTAL PLAIN. 00Z GFS INDICATES
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK IN ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS WITH LOW
LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE TWO
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. DRIER AIR IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ACROSS NRN
AREAS IS FORECAST WITH PWATS FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. H5 TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND -6 AND H7 TEMPS AROUND +10 DEGS C ACROSS THE NORTH. MID
LYR SW FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH
30 PCT NORTH TO 40-50 PCT SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

WED...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WED WITH TROUGH ALOFT STILL TO THE
NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE GA. APPEARS LOW LVL S-SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE SOME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING NORTH TOWARD THE
ORLANDO METRO AND ALL OF BREVARD COUNTY. WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO 40-50
NORTH AND 50-60 SOUTH WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW
REGIME FOR AFTERNOON STORMS FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 90S.

THU...DEEP MOISTURE...SSW LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO SSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPELL POPS
IN THE LIKELY RANGE WITH NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL
STEERING FROM THE SW WILL BRING SOME STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HELD
DOWN IN SOME AREAS BY AN EARLY START TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING.

FRI-MON...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE PROGD WITH PWATS TO 1.9-2.0 INCHES.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ACTIVE FRI BY EARLY AFTN AND
FOCUS STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 60 PCT. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH 00Z GFS INDICATING A TROPICAL
WAVE BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND (SUNDAY TIME FRAME) AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS BOTH MODELS KEEP SOME TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GULF...THE GFS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE ECMWF ACROSS THE WRN
GULF THROUGH THE WKND. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE
LIKELY ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.AVIATION...LIGHT/VARIABLE MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SW/WSW OVER
THE AREA...EXCEPT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INLAND PUSH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SLOWED BY DEEPER DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BECOME L/V AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WARM
ALOFT WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18Z THRU EARLY EVENING
ACROSS ECFL. DEVELOPING WRLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE TODAY/EVENING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE/DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE EVENING. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
HEAVIER CELLS. LATER DAY/EVENING TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG
THE COAST.

.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION/SEA BREEZE GENERALLY
BELOW 10 KTS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BACK TO ESE NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTN WITH WINDS 8-12 KTS HERE. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION MUCH OF
THE TIME ELSEWHERE. MODELS SUGGEST SSW FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC AT 9-12 KTS. SEAS CONTINUE NEAR
2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING
PERIODS LOWERING TO AROUND 6 SECONDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE CHOP
THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY.

WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF LATE DAY/EVENING OFFSHORE MOVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. BOATERS ON INTRACOASTAL
WATERS/INLAND LAKES WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS MAY ARRIVE WELL AHEAD
OF LIGHTNING/PRECIPITATION.

S-SW WINDS INTO MID WEEK WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK TO
ONSHORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS.
2-3 FT SWELL NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE IS FORECAST
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND THEN THE EASTERLY SWELL SHOULD DECREASE INTO
WED AND THU. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 75 93 76 / 40 30 30 20
MCO 94 76 94 76 / 40 20 30 20
MLB 92 76 92 76 / 40 30 30 30
VRB 91 76 93 75 / 40 30 30 30
LEE 93 77 95 77 / 40 20 30 20
SFB 93 76 96 77 / 40 20 30 20
ORL 94 77 96 79 / 40 20 30 20
FPR 92 75 92 74 / 30 30 30 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1253 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING WITH A
NICE LATE SUMMER DAY IN STORE THANKS TO 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WHILE FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 4-6K FT TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA. THESE CLOUDS DUE TO STRONG 553 DM 500 MB
LOW JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO TRACK JUST NE OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TONIGHT WITH MOST OF ITS LOW CLOUDS PASSING NNE OF CENTRAL IL
TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BREEZY WNW
WINDS 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AND STRONGER
FROM I-74 NORTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW FOR LATE AUGUST WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY WAS WELL OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
LARGE FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EAST TODAY WITH THE RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HIGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND
6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
OUR NORTH, WHICH SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH. BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AT LEAST INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS THE WEATHER BENIGN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. COOLER
TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WEAK WIND PATTERN UNDER THE HIGH. THE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT SLOWLY
TRENDING WARMER. THE WARM TREND WILL BE ENHANCED AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
SFC WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF IS STILL MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF AND THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS STARTING TO COME AROUND AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN BOTH MODELS. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY IS EVEN REFLECTED IN THE
SUPERBLEND AS THE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS
THROUGH TUE. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS 5-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND COULD BE SCATTERED ALONG I-74 CORRIDOR.
THESE SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAUSED BY STRONG 553 DM
500 MB LOW JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WEAKENS TO 557 DM AS IT
TRACKS INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 18Z/TUE. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE 1001 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NE
LAKE SUPERIOR GIVING BREEZY WNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-7 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AND BE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS AFTER 15Z/10
AM TUE.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1044 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS PIA AND BMI. MAY SEE
THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z. PREVAILING SPEEDS OF 12 TO 17 KTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

602 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS PIA AND BMI. MAY SEE
THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z. PREVAILING SPEEDS OF 12 TO 17
KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE 06Z
TAFS, UNDER ADVANCING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CUMULUS
THICKENING NEAR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST FROM W ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE
COULD SEE PERIODS OF BKN045 FOR PIA, BMI, CMI LATER AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS THAT
INCREASE BY 15Z. MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX 20-25KT
WINDS TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-74 TERMINAL SITES. HAVE
INCREASED THE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH TO 22-24KT, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 12-14KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10KT BY SUNSET.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

515 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE
IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL ROCKIES. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS
ROTATING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ROTATING INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH IS IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO WITH MAIN AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS SE COLORADO INTO SW KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG
TROUGH AXIS AND ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN COLORADO (WEST OF OUR CWA.
CURRENTLY VERY HIGH CINH IS PREVENTING LOCAL INITIATION...HOWEVER CAP
SHOULD WEAKEN ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREAS WHERE CAP IS MOST LIKELY
TO BREAK ALSO CORRELATE WITH LOWEST CAPE/DRIEST AIR MASS...SO
COVERAGE IS LIMITED. BEYOND A VERY SMALL THREAT FOR DRY MICROBURST
POTENTIAL...CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE THREAT IS LOW.

WEDNESDAY...THERE IS A STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL THAN TODAY FROM SOME
GUIDANCE...HOWEVER SOUNDING ACTUALLY SHOW AN EVEN DRIER AIR MASS AND
STRONGER CAP THAN TODAY. VERY HOT AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS
APPROACHING 100F OVER PARTS OF THE CWA...AND DRY ADIABATIC MIXING
MAY SUPPORT RH VALUES AND WINDS NEAR RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR...PARTICULARLY IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE OVER EASTERN COLORADO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS
BEHIND THE EXITING TROUGH ON FRIDAY.

GFS AND NAM MOISTURE IS SLOW MOVING AND STAYS MOSTLY TO THE NORTH
AND WEST OF THE FA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS INDICATES THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME FORCING AND MOISTURE TO IMPACT
THE FA AFTER 06Z THURSDAY AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE FA
THURSDAY. CAPE VALUES ARE LOW SO PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE AS SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS MOVE OUT OF THE
FA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. PLAN TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. CHANCE POPS LOOK ON TRACK
FOR THURSDAY WITH DECREASING POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY
NIGHT. NIL POPS ARE ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND
SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S ACROSS MOST OF
THE FA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 70 IN THE EAST. MIN TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 50S IN
EASTERN COLORADO TO AROUND 65 IN THE FAR EASTERN FA. MAX
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.
READINGS ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE COOLER IN THE MID 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL KEEP THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS
THE FA THROUGH MONDAY. THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE TO PROVIDE AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHTS AND THE LOWER TO MID 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHTS. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM TO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 511 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LATE AFTERNOON DEW POINTS HAVE RECOVERED TO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S AND WITH FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THOSE VALUES THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR FOG AROUND SUNRISE
AT EITHER TERMINAL. KMCK CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 62 SO
FEEL SOMEWHAT MORE CONFIDENT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG AT THAT
LOCATION THAN AT KGLD WHERE IT IS LOWER. EXPECTING ONLY BRIEF
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS BY MID
MORNING SCOURING OUT ANY FOG WHICH MIGHT DEVELOP.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

131 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER CHANCES AND ALL POPS WEST
OF THE COUNTIES THAT BORDER VIRGINIA. WILL ALSO FINE TUNE THE T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES TO THE
GRIDS...ZONES...AND HWO FORTHCOMING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY WITH A
DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NOTED AS WELL AS MUCH DRIER AIR INBOUND.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE TEMPORARILY HOLDING WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF DRY BULB READINGS AT MOST SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN A FEW
OF THE OBS AND WEB CAMS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WHILE AHEAD OF IT
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE REPORTS ARE THE RULE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE STRONG CLOSED LOW
PASSING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THR GREAT LAKES FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH THE HEART OF THE TROUGH...WHILE
LOW HEIGHTS DESCEND OVER THE STATE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK OWING TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND FOR SPECIFICS WITH SIGNIFICANT INPUT FROM THE HRRR IN THE
NEAR TERM AND ALSO THE NAM12 INTO THE DAY...TUESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE FRONT AND ITS LIMITED CONVECTION
STEADILY MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA AND OUT OF IT BY
12-14Z. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT AND
QUITE COMFORTABLE DAY. IN FACT...THE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR PERFECT
FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS LOW HUMIDITY AND COOL
CONDITIONS GIVE US A NICE TASTE OF FALL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY DAWN TUESDAY...IF THE VALLEYS MANAGE TO
DECOUPLE AND RADIATE WELL. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAP A GREAT START TO THE WEEK ON
TUESDAY. ONLY THE NEARNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SKIES
FROM BEING CLOUD FREE DURING THIS PERIOD.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...HAD THEM IN THE MID RANGE FOR CHANCES
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE DROPPING THEM TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE
IN LINE WITH OR A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

THERE IS REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED FLOW BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW TO USHER WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S AT NIGHT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE THE
UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131| PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE ONLY REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP
VSBYS AT LOZ AND SME TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES
SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

735 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT IS EXITING FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY ATTM. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR BR AT THE
VALLEY TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

CONVECTION IS CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO ALL THE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MOST SITES WILL LIKELY ESCAPE THE PRIME
EFFECTS OF ANY CONVECTION...REMAINING VFR...OR WITH A BRIEF MVFR
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH...DO EXPECT A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THROUGH DAWN. CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING TO ALL LOCATIONS. VFR WX THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID MORNING...OUTSIDE OF THE
VICINITY OF ANY STORM AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT. LATER...DURING THE HEART OF THE DAY...
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1258 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

LATEST AMDAR DATA OUT OF KSDF INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AT 700
MB...MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
THIS HOUR THAN THE NAM. THAT SAME MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
TRY TO GET A SMALL LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS INTO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 23Z...CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE COULD MEAN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THESE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 23-
0Z ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY WITH 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KY AND
SOUTHERN IN. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE BETTER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
POTENTIALLY 30 KNOTS OR SO ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER 0Z AND THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING AS WE LOSE THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE, THINK MUCH OF CENTRAL KY WILL ONLY SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT COVERAGE FAIRLY LOW AS WELL.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 06Z OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
AND WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER
70S WITH LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
COOL, UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUES-THU. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME OF
THE COLDEST LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WED MORNING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS CANADA TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. WARM AIR WILL PUSH BACK NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FRI-SUN. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. BY THE WEEKEND WE MAY SEE A SHOT AT SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DEPENDING ON IF WE ENTER MORE OF A NW FLOW WITH MCS`S
(GFS SOLN) OR IF A STRONG RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH MAY LEAVE US MORE DRY AND WARMER (ECMWF SOLN).

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

SHOWERS/VCTS THAT ARE IMPACTING LEX AT THIS HOUR WILL BE EAST BY THE
TIME THIS TAF CYCLE GOES VALID. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED
SDF/BWG AND WILL QUICKLY BE PASSING LEX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA, WITH A STEADY NW
WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH SETTLING IN THEREAFTER. A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2-3 K FEET MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY FROPA
AT LEX.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY WNW THROUGH MONDAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAT CU AROUND 3-4 K
FEET. SKIES ARE CLEAR LATER TONIGHT WITH WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........RJS
SHORT TERM.....EER
LONG TERM......AMS
AVIATION.......BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

339 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO UP HIGHS AND WORDING FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 90S
SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 110 WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 AND TWEAK HIGHS FOR THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LEFT AS FAR RAIN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS IN BACK DOOR MODE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS I-20 IN LA AND EVENTUALLY E TX. SFC PRESSURE READINGS ARE
1020MB AT ELD AND ONLY A MB OR TWO LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF OUR CWA. HEATING WILL BE HELPFUL AS THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL HELP OUT TOO LATER
WITH MORE HEATING...BUT IN GENERAL...OUR POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
FROM NE TO SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW TO MID 70S
OBSERVED TO STILL BE IN PLACE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TIED TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS S AR/SE OK HAS
SHOWN TRENDS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF N LA. THIS CONVECTION IS
ELEVATED AND THUS...CANNOT SEE ANY REAL OUTFLOW TO SPEAK OF FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND NEW 12Z GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THAT POSSIBILITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
THE TXK/ELD/SHV AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL HANDLE ANY RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS S AR WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ASSUMING THEY BECOME ROOTED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY A NNE
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WHILE PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS MAY APPROACH
100 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

PRECIP COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED
MAINLY TO JUST DEEP EAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TO AVERAGE AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. /05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 72 90 65 / 30 30 20 10
MLU 92 67 89 63 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 89 66 87 60 / 20 20 10 10
TXK 89 68 87 61 / 20 20 10 10
ELD 86 65 87 60 / 20 20 10 10
TYR 97 75 91 68 / 40 40 20 10
GGG 95 73 90 65 / 40 40 30 10
LFK 99 75 93 68 / 30 30 30 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1124 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 AND TWEAK HIGHS FOR THE DAY.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LEFT AS FAR RAIN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS IN BACK DOOR MODE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS I-20 IN LA AND EVENTUALLY E TX. SFC PRESSURE READINGS ARE
1020MB AT ELD AND ONLY A MB OR TWO LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF OUR CWA. HEATING WILL BE HELPFUL AS THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL HELP OUT TOO LATER
WITH MORE HEATING...BUT IN GENERAL...OUR POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
FROM NE TO SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW TO MID 70S
OBSERVED TO STILL BE IN PLACE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. /24/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 73 90 66 / 30 30 20 10
MLU 93 68 89 64 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 87 65 88 61 / 20 20 10 10
TXK 89 67 87 62 / 30 20 20 10
ELD 87 66 87 60 / 30 20 10 10
TYR 96 74 92 69 / 20 40 30 10
GGG 96 72 91 66 / 30 40 30 10
LFK 98 74 93 68 / 30 30 30 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/13/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TIED TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS S AR/SE OK HAS
SHOWN TRENDS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF N LA. THIS CONVECTION IS
ELEVATED AND THUS...CANNOT SEE ANY REAL OUTFLOW TO SPEAK OF FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND NEW 12Z GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THAT POSSIBILITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
THE TXK/ELD/SHV AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL HANDLE ANY RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS S AR WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ASSUMING THEY BECOME ROOTED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY A NNE
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING.
THIS TSRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...THUS WILL ADD VCTS TO TXK AND ELD THIS MORNING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MIGRATE THROUGH AREA TODAY...AND THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
AMD AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ADDED AS THEY FORM NEAR TERMINALS.

ELEVEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 96 73 90 66 / 30 30 20 10
MLU 94 68 89 64 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 88 65 88 61 / 30 20 10 10
TXK 90 67 87 62 / 30 20 20 10
ELD 89 66 87 60 / 30 20 10 10
TYR 96 74 92 69 / 30 40 30 10
GGG 96 72 91 66 / 30 40 30 10
LFK 98 74 93 68 / 30 30 30 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

954 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: OUR FA CONTS IN BETWEEN AREAS OF SHWRS WITH WDLY SCT
TSTMS...BUT THIS MAY BE ABOUT TO END. LATEST HRRR HRLY SIM RADAR
INDICATES WIDER CVRG OF SHWRS AND POTENTIAL TSTMS MOVG NEWRD INTO
OUR FA FROM CNTRL NEW ENG AND THE WRN GULF OF ME LATE TNGT INTO
THE ERLY MORN HRS. ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE HRRR MAY BE
A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH INTENSITY WITH THESE SHWRS...GIVEN HOW
MOIST THE LLVLS ARE AND THE POTENTIAL OF A WEAK LLVL JET LATE TNGT
THAT COULD INCREASE LLVL MOISTURE ADVCN/CNVRG AND BRING ELEVATED
CAPE...WE WILL KEEP THE CHC OF TSTMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NGT
WITH LCLY HVY RNFL POSSIBLE.

OTHERWISE...FCST HRLY TEMPS WERE UPDATED FROM OBSVD 9 PM TEMPS...TO
FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM WED WHICH WERE LOWERED SLIGHTLY OVR THE
NW GIVEN SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TRENDS FROM THE PRIOR FCST TEMPS AT
THIS HR OVR THE NW. LASTLY...WE INCORPORATED MORE HI TRRN DAY/NGT
TEMP DIURNAL VARIATION THRU WED.

ORGNL DISC: A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
OR HEAVIER SHOWERS EARLY TONIGHT. FOG WILL ALSO MOVE INLAND FROM
THE GULF OF MAINE TONIGHT...MOST EXTENSIVE ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. FURTHER
WEST...TOWARDS BANGOR AND GREENVILLE....SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THE
EVENING. MARGINALLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT AND PUSH THE STRATUS CLOUDS OUT OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60F MOST OF THE NIGHT AND COASTAL FOG WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60F. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY BRING IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS HUMID AIR FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SET OFF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BUT FAR
LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS A RESULT...IT IS HARD TO FORESEE MUCH
MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS.. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR BANGOR AND
DOWN EAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE TOWARDS THE COAST. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. AGAIN...THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA PUSHES A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH BEHIND THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN RETURN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE EAST
ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: EXPECT PREDOMINATELY IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING. LIFR IS LIKELY TOWARDS
BHB AND THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN FOG. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
VFR THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY FOR ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY. CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR ACROSS THE
NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
FOG TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SHORT TERM: FOG CONTINUES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. LOWER PERIOD SE
SWELL NEAR 4 FT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/MCW
MARINE...VJN/MCW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1117 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE HUMIDITIES START TO DROP OFF
AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE
MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LESS
COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE.

SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISC...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS INCLUDED BLENDING IN THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR POP GRIDS TO EXPAND THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MARINE FOG/STRATUS LAYER WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS INLAND ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO HANG TOUGH INTO
THE MORNING...WITH NO REAL IMPETUS TO REMOVE IT BESIDES HEATING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE CLOUDS SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY SCATTER
OUT BY AFTERNOON. THESE POCKETS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM...VERY MUCH THE HIT AND MISS VARIETY
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONCENTRATED FORCING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR TONIGHT...WITH FOG/STRATUS
REFORMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES S OF THE MTNS. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR NOW...THOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WELL
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

TUE IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS UPPER LOW PRES MOVES EWD AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE...THOUGH BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED. THESE POCKETS OF HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WILL LEAD TO REGIONS OF CAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO THIS
CAPE WILL BE MORE OF THE LONG...SKINNY VARIETY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY RNFL SOUNDINGS THAN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. THAT BEING
SAID...MODEST H5 JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT SELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO FORECAST
IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TUE AFTERNOON. SPC SREF PRODUCTS ARE
BEGINNING TO KEY ON AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA SEEING A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX...AND NCAR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MOST
LIKELY SRN NH. WITH LCLS NEAR 1000 M IN THAT VICINITY...THE
INGREDIENTS ARE ALL IN PLACE SUCH THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT EXACT SCENARIO IS
LOW...SO FOR NOW GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS WHERE CAPE
IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG...ACROSS SRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TUESDAY EVENING.

500 MB PATTERN FEATURES MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCKING STRETCHED FROM
EUROPE WWD TO ERN PACIFIC...WHICH MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS
EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AS TROUGH DRIVES EQUATORWARD OFF THE POLE
ACROSS ALASKA. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND LIFTS POLEWARD
AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE MIDWEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FLATTENING
AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD IN FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START UNSETTLED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES WITH WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. SOME SEVERE
THREAT INTO TUE EVENING...BUT OF MORE CONCERN FOR TUE NIGHT WILL
BE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS IN TSRA AND TRAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AS A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. SHRA SHOULD WIND DOWN BY WED
MORNING...WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. AS THE 500MB LOW LIFTS
NWD...WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE ROTATE AROUND IT ON THURSDAY...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT THRU THE REGION...AND COLD SET OFF A
ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A FEW TSRA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
BE LIMITED TO THE NRN ZONES. MORE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVE IN FOR FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
IN THE 500MB FLOW APPROACHES SUNDAY...BUT FLOW SHIFTS SW AND
WARMER AIR RETURNS WITH A THREAT FOR SHRA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF IN STEPS...FIRST ON WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND THEN ANOTHER STEP DOWN FOR THU-
SAT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. AFTER THIS 850
TEMPS LOOK TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT...WHICH WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS...CLIMBING INTO THE80S
MANY SPOTS FOR SUN AND MON.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE MTNS
THRU MID MORNING IN MARINE FOG/STRATUS LAYER. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THIS LAYER TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT WITH TIME...THOUGH AREAS OF
MVFR ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TSRA. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AND SRN NH TERMINALS. BY MID MORNING REMAINING
STRATUS WILL LIFT/SCATTER OUT AGAIN...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH SHRA/SHRA AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. BY WED
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH VLY FOG
EXPECTED EVERY NIGHT.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE.
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS THRU TUE
AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ANY HIGHER SWELL OF AROUND 40-5 FT WILL BE SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT AND BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

818 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE
MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROX 14Z. OTHERWISE...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR TONIGHT...WITH FOG/STRATUS
REFORMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES S OF THE MTNS. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR NOW...THOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WELL
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TUESDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE MTNS
THRU MID MORNING IN MARINE FOG/STRATUS LAYER. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THIS LAYER TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT WITH TIME...THOUGH AREAS OF
MVFR ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TSRA. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...ANY HIGHER SWELL OF AROUND 40-5 FT WILL BE SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT AND BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

723 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS INCLUDED BLENDING IN THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR POP GRIDS TO EXPAND THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TUESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...ANY HIGHER SWELL OF AROUND 40-5 FT WILL BE SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT AND BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

924 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE
REGION BY FRIDAY AND GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS
EVENING WITH REMNANT FRONT TO OUR SE. PWAT GENERALLY LESS THAN
ONE INCH ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT...CLOSED LOW IS SPINNING ON
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER. ONE DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AND WILL SKIRT SE VA TONIGHT...WHILE ANOTHER
(WEAKER) ONE IS APPROACHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. HRRR AND RAP
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP BY LATE EVENING IN THE VA PIEDMONT -
SOUTHERN MD AREA. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK THETA-E RIDGE IN THIS
AREA...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER
AND NO INSTBY/CAPPED PROFILE. THINK SPRINKLES WOULD BE A WORSE
CASE SCENARIO...AND THERE WILL BE SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS AT TIMES.
AIR MASS ALSO SEEMS TOO DRY FOR FOG TO BE MUCH OF A
CONCERN...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG IN CENTRAL
VA/WESTERN VALLEYS ASSUMING SKIES REMAIN CLEAR.

TEMPERATURES HAVE TUMBLED QUICKLY WITH SUNSET AND HAVE POTENTIAL
TO FALL INTO THE 50S IN MANY AREAS WITH 60S NEAR AND EAST OF I-95.

WEATHER FEATURES TRANSLATE SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WEDNESDAY. UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WILL BE PASSING TO THE NORTH...ALONG WITH A JET
STREAK OVERHEAD...SO CLOUDS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE PREVALENT WITH
NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL REBOUND TO
SIMILAR...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY COOLER...READINGS AND HUMIDITY WILL
REMAIN LOW.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...ALLOWING FOR DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL. THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS...AS
COOLER AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. WEAK RETURN FLOW BEGINS FRIDAY...WITH A WEAK WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL BE BELOW
NORMAL. QUALITY MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED WELL SOUTH AND EAST...SO
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOB 60 EVEN WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. LACK
OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND/OR LIFTING MECHANISM WILL PRECLUDE
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS ITS GRIP SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND...AS
WEAK WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC.
SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES...BUT QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
STILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA...WHICH WILL KEEP SFC
DEWPOINTS AOB 65. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OVER
THE WEEKEND TO ALLOW FOR A FEW SPOTTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME SPILLAGE TO THE EAST SUNDAY.
LACK OF DECENT LIFT AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP MOST
AREAS DRY MOST OF THE TIME. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS TO
REASSERT ITS CONTROL MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER...HUMIDITY SHOULD
REMAIN LOW ENOUGH TO HAVE LITTLE-TO-NO ADDED IMPACT ON HEAT.

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN. CIG AOA 5KFT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT TIMES
BUT LIKELY WILL NOT PREVAIL. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS. FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AT THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE OF BR AT CHO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
A STALLED FRONT JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA. A SURGE OF HIGHER
PRESSURES WILL PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT AND IT APPEARS THIS
WILL INDUCE NORTHERLY CHANNELING ON THE BAY. WITH NUMEROUS
GUIDANCE SETS DEPICTING THE POTENTIAL FOR 20 KT WIND GUSTS...HAVE
HOISTED A SCA FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND ADJOINING AREAS. WINDS WILL
TAPER OFF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING AND WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NW OR W THROUGH THE DAY.

PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES TIGHTEN UP AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE WINDS COULD BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED...BUT
MIXED LAYER WINDS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 18 KNOTS AND HAVE NOT ISSUED
ANYTHING FOR THIS PERIOD.

FEW MARINE CONCERNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED UNDER HIGH PRESSURE WITH
DRY WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS
POSSIBLE BY LATE SUNDAY...BUT MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY.

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ531-532-
539-540.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ533-534-537-541>543.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/RCM
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

733 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW A DEEP MID LEVEL
LOW CENTERED N OF GEORGIAN BAY DRIFTING EASTWARD. TO THE W...A RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES N INTO SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. IN THE
LINGERING MOIST...CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE MID LEVEL LOW...SOME
-SHRA/-DZ HAVE PERSISTED ACROSS THE FCST AREA TODAY...AIDED BY NW
UPSLOPE FLOW. THERE HAS PROBABLY BEEN SOME LAKE COMPONENT TO THE
PCPN AS WELL. WITH CLOUD TOPS WARMING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HRS PER
IR IMAGERY...RADAR HAS SHOWN PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DIMINISHING.
UNDER AN OVC CLOUD COVER...IT HAS BEEN ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY
FOR LATE AUG. SO FAR...TEMPS HAVE ONLY RISEN TO THE LOW/MID 50S IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WHERE PCPN LINGERS TO AROUND 60 OVER THE FAR
SCNTRL. BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DULUTH TO
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND NORTHWARD.

AS MID LEVEL LOW AND UPSTREAM RIDGE DRIFT E...EXPECT IMPROVING
CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST. MAIN FCST
ISSUES WILL BE TIMING THE ENDING OF PCPN AND THE CLEARING TREND.
UNDER SLOW HEIGHT RISES/DEEP LAYER QVECTOR DIVERGENCE AND WEAKENING
CYCLONIC FLOW...LINGERING -SHRA/-DZ WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT. THIS TREND WILL BE MOST PRONOUNCED OVER THE W...WHERE THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC CLOSER TO APPROACHING SFC
HIGH PRES SETTLING OVER MN. LINGERING LOW CLOUDS WILL LIMIT TEMP
FALL TONIGHT. EXPECT THE LOWEST MINS (TOWARD THE MID 40S) OVER THE
INTERIOR W...WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE. IF
THERE IS SOME CLEARING...PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP.

A FEW -SHRA/PATCHY -DZ MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO THE NCNTRL/ERN
FCST AREA WED MORNING UNDER ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WITH
NEUTRAL TO VERY WEAKLY CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND AIR MASS TOO WARM
FOR LAKE EFFECT PROCESSES...ANY PCPN WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
OTHERWISE...APPROACHING HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE OVER UPPER MI BY WED
EVENING. MODELS SUGGEST CLEARING WILL ONLY SLOWLY PUSH E ACROSS THE
FCST AREA AS THE HIGH ARRIVES AND THERMAL TROF DEPARTS. LARGELY
UTILIZED A MODEL CONSENSUS TO CONSTRUCT THE SKY COVER AND THE W TO E
CLEARING TREND ON WED. IT MAY NOT BE UNTIL TOWARD SUNSET THAT THE
LAST OF THE CLOUDS CLEAR THE ERN FCST AREA. UNDER INCREASING
SUNSHINE AND DEPARTURE OF THERMAL TROF...TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO
REBOUND. EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 60/LWR 60S E WHERE CLOUDS LINGER
LONGEST TO THE UPPER 60S TOWARD THE MI/WI BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

GOOD AGREEMENT IN OVERALL LOOK OF LARGE SCALE PATTERN INTO NEXT
WEEK. UPPER TROUGHING WITH SLOW MOVING SFC LOW REORGANIZES INTO
UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND NUNAVUT CANADA BY END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT UPPER RIDGE OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE ROCKIES EARLY THIS
WEEK TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY THIS
WEEKEND AS TROUGHING DEEPENS AND SETTLES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA AND
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR MUCH RAINFALL IN THIS PATTERN ARE
SLIM.

STARTING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS
THE AREA SO WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND PWATS DOWN
BLO 0.5 INCH SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOWERED MINS
INTO THE MIDDLE 30S FOR TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OVER INTERIOR. SOUNDINGS
SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING AS WELL SO THERE MAY BE FOG. ALSO ADDED
MENTION OF FROST FOR COLDEST SPOTS. THIS NIGHT APPEARS TO BE TAIL
END OF THE FALL LIKE CONDITIONS BEFORE WARMING TREND STARTS UP ON
THURSDAY.

ONLY NOTABLE CHANCES OF RAIN WOULD BE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT MAKES BRIEF PUSH ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO
AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. LARGER SCALE SUPPORT NOT VERY STRONG FOR
RAIN OVER UPR MICHIGAN AS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS GENERALLY
DISPLACED OF UPPER LAKES WITH ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE CROSSING WELL
TO THE NORTH OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO AND OTHER
STRONGER SHORTWAVE SLIDING FM WYOMING/NEBRASKA TO IOWA/NORTHERN
ILLINOIS. RESULT IS STRONGEST Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE/LIFT STAYING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND FM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO WISCONSIN AND LOWER
MICHIGAN. APPEARS THAT GREATEST MOISTURE INFLOW IN FORM OF H85
THETA-E ADVECTION IS INTERCEPTED BY SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE. NO HELP FM
INSTABILITY WITH STRONGER MUCAPE STAYING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. BETTER SIGNAL FOR CONVECTION RUNS FM
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN CLOSER TO H85 MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. LOWER RANGE CHANCE POPS IS ALL THAT THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WARRANTS ATTM FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...VERY WEAK TROUGHING...LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. GFS SOUNDINGS SHOW NARROW
LAYER OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT THIS IS PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT SHOWERS. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME SORT OF ONSHORE COMPONENT TO
THE WINDS OVER THE EAST HALF OF CWA CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE OVER
MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES. WEST HALF OF CWA SHOULD START TO SEE MORE
S/SW WINDS AHEAD OF DEVELOPING TROUGHING IN THE PLAINS. H85 TEMPS
COOL A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO FRIDAY. WARMEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY IN
THE LOW-MID 70S SHOULD BE OVER THE WEST WITH LESS INFLUENCE OF GREAT
LAKES COOLING AND BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING TAKES BETTER HOLD ON SUNDAY. SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AS
SFC RIDGE IS STILL CLOSE BY TO THE EAST. WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING TO
13-15C...SHOULD SEE READINGS MOST AREAS AT LEAST INTO THE UPPER 70S.
LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH LESS LAKE INFLUENCE AND WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT.

RIDGING ALOFT FIRMLY OVERHEAD ON MONDAY WITH GRADIENT S WIND BTWN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND AND A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. H85 TEMPS VARY WILDLY
THOUGH WITH THE ECMWF PUSHING BULK OF WARMTH CLOSER TO THE SFC
TROUGH AND OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO /H85 TEMPS UP TO 15C OVER UPR
MICHIGAN/ WHILE GFS SHOWS H85 TEMPS PUSHING PAST 22C ACROSS UPR
MICHIGAN. BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND SYNOPTIC SETUP ALONE JUSTIFIES
CONSENSUS TEMPS TO AT LEAST LOWER 80S. NOT A LOT OF CHANGE FOR
FIRST DAY OF SEPTEMBER WITH LINGERING UPPER RIDGE AND APPROACHING
SFC FRONT. GFS BRINGS FRONT THROUGH UPPER LAKES QUICKER...BUT EXPECT
SLOWER IDEA FM ECMWF GIVEN THE UPPER RIDGE IT WILL BE RUNNING UP
AGAINST. DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS ALOFT AHEAD OF FRONT WITH
STRONGER S/SW WINDS WILL GIVE MOST AREAS AWAY FM LK MICHIGAN SHORE A
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING HIGHS INTO MIDDLE OR POSSIBLY UPPER 80S. LOWER TO
MIDDLE 80S WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WILL DO FOR NOW.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

A CONTINUED NW FLOW OF MOIST COOL AIR AROUND LOW PRES NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU AT LEAST TONIGHT. PATCHY -DZ AND KSAW TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BUT
SHOULDN`T REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. APPROACHING HIGH PRES AND INFLUX OF
DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW CIGS TO RISE TO VFR AT KIWD FOR A BRIEF TIME
THIS EVENING BEFORE LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BRINGS CIGS BACK TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. AS HIGH PRES CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
WED...MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE MORNING.
CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTN AT KSAW. &&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WITH LOW PRES NEAR JAMES BAY CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA
AND HIGH PRES OVER THE PLAINS APPROACHING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR FROM W TO E TONIGHT AND WED. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 10-20KT W TO 15-30KT E. WINDS ON
WED WILL DIMINISH TO UNDER 15KT W AND UNDER 20KT E BY THE END OF THE
AFTN. AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE UPPER LAKES WED NIGHT...WINDS WILL
BE UNDER 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY UNDER 20KT
THU THRU SUN.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

441 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE LONG TERM LATE AUG
AVG. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE IS
JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ANOTHER IS NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AND A THIRD
IS MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. SHRA HAD NOT BEEN AS NMRS AS EXPECTED
OVER UPPER MI UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN SHORTWAVE REACHED WRN UPPER MI.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE HAD BEEN A RATHER
SOLID BAND OF SHRA...EXTENDING FROM AROUND LAKE NIPIGON SE AND E TO
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW/ZONE OF WAA/RATHER FOCUSED
THETA-E ADVECTION. 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 1C
AT KINL PER 12Z RAOBS RUNS FROM NRN MN INTO NRN WI/SRN UPPER MI
AND TOWARD LWR MI.

ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE NIPIGON LOOKS
QUITE VIGOROUS...AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW DECENT SHIELD OF SHRA
ADVANCING S WITH FEATURE. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHRA
COVERAGE OVER THE W IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI WILL SPREAD INCREASED SHRA
ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...
VEERING WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THE SHRA OVER THE ERN LAKE SE INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA AS WELL. LAKE NIPIGON SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
AID SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE E THRU LATE EVENING INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WAA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT/NMRS SHRA OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
WARMEST WATER RESIDES...TO ADD A LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN AS WELL.
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PCPN WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WRN FCST AREA.

ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS FARTHER E ON TUE AND HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUE...LINGERING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/UPSLOPING AND SOME LAKE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS NORMALLY
FAVORED BY NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHRA
SHOULD TEND TO SHOW SOME DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS) WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WHERE PCPN IS MOST FREQUENT. NEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS MAY BE SET
AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

DAMP AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATION TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC
WED. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES BY THU INTO
THE WEEKEND.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MAINLY NNW FLOW WITH 330-340 WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 6C INTO EARLY WED. WITH THE NNW FLOW
AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKE...EXPECT THE
GREATEST -SHRA COVERAGE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI EVEN AS THE AMOUNTS
DIMINISH. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH AND END WED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES BLO 0.5
INCH...EXPECT INLAND MIN TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THU SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

FRI-MON...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT AND IMPACT OF A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOST
OF THE PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND WEST OF WI. THIS WOULD ALLOW
A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH TO SLIDE TOWARD OR INTO UPPER MI. THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WNW FLOW SHRTWVS SUPPORTS CONTINUED
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA POPS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
AWAY FROM PCPN FOR SAT INTO MON AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES TO THE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...KCMX WILL SEE THE
WORST CONDITIONS...WITH MORE FREQUENT...HEAVIER SHRA AND SOME
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE PRESENCE OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES JUST N OF THUNDER BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU TUE. UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO WHERE THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AND DESTABLIZATION IS GREATEST...WNW GALES UP TO 35
KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE LAKE THRU THE AFTN.
CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NCENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AS
THIS AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER A SLACKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO PRES.
ADDED A MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND WINDS MAY BE WEAKER FOR A
TIME TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE
LO JUST TO THE N. AS THE LO CONTINUES E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT/TUE...NW GALES TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE SHARPEST. AS THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E AND HI PRES TO THE
W APPROACHES...THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON TUE
NIGHT/WED. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

431 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER NW ONTARIO JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY. DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
THIS FEATURE AND ABUNDANT MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS
RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE UPR LKS. 00Z H85 TEMP AS LO AS 4C AT INL...RELATIVE TO WRN LK
WATER TEMPS AS HI AS 15-17C...IS ADDING A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT TO
THE PCPN. WV IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SHRTWV ROTATING ARND MAIN
CLOSED LO IS SLIDING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS AND DRAGGING THE DEEPER
MSTR TO THE NW TOWARD UPR MI. STRONG WNW WINDS AT H925-85 WITHIN THE
LLVL THERMAL TROF ARE ALSO CAUSING GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS
OVER MAINLY WRN LK SUP AND AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORE.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP CONTINUES TO THE E
AND DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS DRAGGED OVER UPR MI IN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CYC W SLOWLY VEERING NW FLOW...EXPECT NMRS
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF OF UPR MI.
THE MORE NMRS SHOWERS WL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY
AS WELL AS THE FCST H925 FLOW VEERS TO A MORE ONSHORE WNW DIRECTION
FOLLOWING LO PRES TROF PASSAGE. SINCE WINDS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE
LK WL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF AND THERMAL
TROFFING WL ACCENTUATE THE LLVL LAPSE RATES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A
SCHC OF WATERSPOUTS UNDER THE SHOWERS WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE AT LEAST
55 TO 60. STRONG WINDS AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE
SCENTRAL DESPITE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW. EXPECT HI TEMPS
IN THE 50S TODAY THAT MAY BREAK SOME DAILY RECORD LO MAXIMUMS.
EXPECT A HI SWIM RISK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY
AS THE FLOW BECOMES INCRSGLY ONSHORE AND WAVE HGTS INCREASE.

TNGT...AS THE CLOSED LO JUST N OF THE NE END OF LK SUP AT 00Z SHIFTS
SLOWLY TO THE E TNGT...SLOWLY HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL
DOMINATE. DESPITE THIS NEGATIVE DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLOWLY
MODERATING H85 TEMPS TO ARND 6-7C...PERSISTENT CYC NW FLOW AND DEEP
MSTR WL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LIKELY LK ENHANCED SHOWERS POPS IN THE
FAVORED AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP. THESE SHOWERS WL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING CLOSED LO AND
WHERE SOME UPSTREAM OFF LK NIPIGON MAY HAVE AN IMPACT. CLD
COVER...SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS AND GUSTY NW WINDS /H925 WINDS
NEAR 30 KTS/ SUGGEST THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL WL BE RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE TO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. GUSTY NW WINDS AND LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE RAIN WILL RESULT MAINLY TUE...BUT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO WED MORNING BEFORE SFC AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY POPS IN NW WIND LAKE EFFECT
BELTS...DIMINISHING TUE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS WED. 850MB TEMPS OF 5-7C WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
LOW HIGH TEMPS TUE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S INTERIOR W TO THE MID
60S SCENTRAL. GOOD FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TUE NIGHT TEMPS
FROM BEING TOO COOL...ONLY AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR W. THE
RIDGING MOVING IN ON WED WILL LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THU WHILE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES E. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT INLAND. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INLAND LOW TEMPS AS LOW AS 40F. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-
14C BY LATE THU...SO HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

DEFINITELY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PRECIP FORECAST FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IS TRICKY AS THE
12Z/23 ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE SRN CWA. THE 00Z/24 GFS HAS THE FRONT STAYING
N OF THE CWA BUT ALSO BRING THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
FARTHER N INTO THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONSENSUS. CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 80S SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

734 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

A GUSTY W SLOWLY VEERING NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR ARND DEEP LO
PRES PASSING TO THE NE OF UPR MI WL BRING PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...CMX WL
SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH MORE FREQUENT...HEAVIER SHRA/IFR
CONDITIONS PSBL THERE AT TIMES IN THE PRESENCE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE
EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS...LO CLDS AND SHOWERS
WL PERSIST TNGT...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AS THE DEEP LO PRES
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

459 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MONDAY. MOIST CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE LOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES...ENHANCED BY COOLER AIR
FLOWING OVER LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW AT
KIWD AND KCMX. VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 6SM IN THE
SHOWERS...BUT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POCKET OF COOLEST AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT KIWD AND KCMX DUE TO STRONGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT. GUSTY W-
NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT
THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES JUST N OF THUNDER BAY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU TUE. UNDER THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO WHERE THE SURGE OF
COOLER AIR IS MOST PRONOUNCED AND DESTABLIZATION IS GREATEST...WNW
GALES UP TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE LAKE THRU
THE AFTN. CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NCENTRAL PORTION OF THE
LAKE AS THIS AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER A SLACKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
LO PRES. ADDED A MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND WINDS MAY BE
WEAKER FOR A TIME TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH
MOVING AROUND THE LO JUST TO THE N. AS THE LO CONTINUES E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT/TUE...NW GALES TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE SHARPEST. AS THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E AND HI
PRES TO THE W APPROACHES...THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E ON TUE NIGHT/WED. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS FOR WED NIGHT THRU
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND LINK THOSE TO THE ALREADY GOING LIKELY
POPS OVERNIGHT. BASED THE INCREASE IN POPS ON AVAILABLE WEB CAMS AND
REPORTS FM OBSERVERS POINTING TO WET CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST CWA. AUTOMATED OBS EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER FAR NCNTRL WI
SHOWED VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LGT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.

RADAR IS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY...LIKELY BECAUSE IT IS
SHALLOWER BASED LIGHTER RAIN MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS RAP SHOWS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 4-5C /WATER TEMPS 13-15C/
WITH WNW WINDS AT H85. 0.5 DEGREE RADAR SLICE RUNS FM 8000-11000 FT
AGL OVER THE WESTERN CWA...SO IT IS PROBABLY OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF
THE RAIN ECHOES. SINCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR IS
ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT GENERALLY STEADY
STATE MOISTURE AND WINDS FOR REST OF TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE IS TEMPS IN
THE 925MB- 850MB LAYER STEADILY COOL TO AROUND +1C BY DAYBREAK.
COOLING WILL ONLY INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR THE NW FLOW
AREAS OF WESTERN CWA.
&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV/
CUTOFF H5 LO LIFTING NORTH OF THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
ONTARIO. THIS POTENT SYSTEM CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS OF 160M AT
KINL AND 120-140M HGT FALLS OVER UPPER MI. STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/DPVA AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTED IN
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS
EXITED E OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WAS STILL SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM MUNISING TO GARDEN IN PAST HOUR.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE FAR WRN
CWA THIS PAST HOUR WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN ON BACKSIDE OF
ONTARIO LOW.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA SHOULD END BETWEEN 22-00Z THIS EVENING AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF NEARLY VERICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN A
WNW WIND FLOW. 8H TEMPS DROPPING TO 3C WEST AND 5-6C EAST LATE
TONIGHT IN A WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. AND EVEN
CARRYING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE TOWARD 30KTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN LAKE DELTA-T VALUES 10-13C SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN IN STRONGLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS VEERING
MORE NW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
INTO ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI SO HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY BUMPED UP POPS
THERE TO HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
CWA WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE CAA IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR WEST TO
MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MONDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
OCTOBER AS TEMPS ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS STAYING
IN THE 50S. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
AT A NUMBER OF SITES.

DEEP MIXING FROM COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE WINDY OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (ESPECIALLY THE PORTAGE CANAL) WITH THE FAVORED
WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION AND MORE UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SO
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-40 MPH AT SOME OF THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

A FALL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE TODAY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST AND LEAD TO GALES TO 35 KNOTS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT NEARS
JAMES BAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..WHICH WILL LOWER WINDS BELOW
20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263>265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

DAMP AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATION TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEEP CLOSED MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z/TUE WILL GRAUDALLY
FILL AND MOVE TO QUEBEC BY WED. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SCT/ISOLD -SHRA TO MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-5C RANGE AND LAKE WATER
TEMPS NEAR 16C...LAKE ENHANCED RAIN WILL BRING MORE SIGNFICANT
RAIN...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...TO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW
LOW LEVEL FLOW SUCH AS NW UPPER MI AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BOOST PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NW HALF TO
THE LOW AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NNW AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 7C BY 12Z/WED. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER -SHRA
COVERAGE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI EVEN AS THE AMOUNTS DIMINISH. EXPECT
THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND END WED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRI-SUN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT AND IMPACT OF A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263>265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

745 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVE OVER THE REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
AFFECT PRIMARILY THE HIGHER TERRAIN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BEFORE
GRADUAL DRYING COMMENCES FRIDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&

.UPDATE...SEVERAL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY OVER THE MOHAVE
NATIONAL PRESERVE. THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AREAS WITH GOOD
INSTABILITY AND JUST AHEAD OF A DISTURBANCE PUSHING NORTH. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS AND HAVE BEEN PRETTY MUCH
ANCHORED TO THE TERRAIN. OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE DYNAMICS AVAILABLE THIS EVENING THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. HAVE MADE A FEW CHANGES
TO THE POP GRIDS...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION
232 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

WELL DEFINED VORT MAX WHICH WAS INITIALIZED NEAR PHOENIX THIS
MORNING HAS MOVED NORTH TO NEAR PRESCOTT AT MID-AFTERNOON. A LINE OF
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
WIKIEUP NORTH TO PEACH SPRINGS...THEN NORTHEAST TOWARD MT TRUMBULL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS OCCURRED WITH THIS LINE IN THE MOUNTAINS
NORTHEAST OF WIKIEUP WITH ONE MOHAVE COUNTY FLOOD CONTROL DISTRICT
STATION REPORTING ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF AN INCH. HRRR HAS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE LINE WEAKENING AS IT CONTINUE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN
MOHAVE COUNTY THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

THE VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN LINE TO
SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY POTENTIALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF NORTHEAST
CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN LIGHT AND DO NOT FORESEE THIS CHANGING MUCH
SO DECIDED TO LOWER POPS TONIGHT FOR SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND THE
REST OF CLARK COUNTY.

MONSOON MOISTURE THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION TUESDAY WILL STILL BE
AVAILABLE WEDNESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWING MORE
INSTABILITY TOMORROW. CONVECTION SHOULD BE STRONGLY TERRAIN DRIVEN
WITH ISOLATED POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. FLOW ALOFT WILL TURN
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DRYING
TREND. DID INTRODUCE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS INTO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF MOHAVE COUNTY FRIDAY.

CLOUDINESS HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MORE SUNSHINE
AND DRYING TREND FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WE WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
RETURN TO ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY. OUTSIDE OF GUSTY
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

DRIER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY...FINALLY SCOURING OUT MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST AND
EFFECTIVELY ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
ALONG WITH BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS...THIS WILL YIELD A QUICK
WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY.

A SLIGHT CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER COULD BE IN STORE FOR THE WEEKEND AS
THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN A SHORTWAVE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST TO EJECT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THIS WILL YIELD A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THOUGH GUIDANCE IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LOW TONIGHT...LARGE DISCREPANCIES IN
THE OVERALL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FEATURE CONTINUE TO EXIST
TONIGHT. THE 00Z ECMWF OUTPUT IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS
AMPLIFIED THAN THE 00Z GFS...WHICH IS 24-36 HOURS SLOWER IN
TRAVERSING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. THESE DIFFERENCES YIELD A 3-4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE SPREAD IN
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AFTER SUNDAY...THEREFORE A BLEND OF BOTH
SOLUTIONS WAS USED FOR MAX AND MIN FORECASTS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCES...THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE CAN EXPECT
DRY...BREEZY...AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DECREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS GENERALLY FROM A SOUTH
DIRECTION. HOWEVER THEY MAY SHIFT BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN SOUTHEAST
AND SOUTHWEST AT TIMES. SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF STRONGER SOUTHEAST WINDS POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY
THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS
TIME. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS EVENING AND
PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL DROP FROM 15-20K FEET THIS
AFTERNOON TO AROUND 8-10K FEET OVERNIGHT.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WITH CIGS IN THE 10-20K FEET RANGE
WILL BE COMMON TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF A KDAG-KTPH LINE. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE EAST OF THIS LINE AS
WELL...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY ACROSS MOHAVE
COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AND VARIABLE NEAR STORMS BUT
OTHERWISE GENERALLY LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY. MODELS INDICATED THE
POSSIBILITY IF ENHANCED EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN STRENGTH AND TIMING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 6-10K FEET OVERNIGHT WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS
CONTINUING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...GORELOW
SHORT TERM...PIERCE
AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

157 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACVTY IN NY OR PA AT THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO SW TO FAR WRN MD AT THIS TIME. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS
FRNT WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SOUTHERN PA TO NE PA AND
ACRS C NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS DRAPED
ALONG THE BNDRY WHICH WAS MORE SOLID IN NY AND W OF THE MTNS IN
PA. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BREAK UP AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES FROM INSOLATION AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING ACRS PA INTO
SRN NY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE THAT WILL MOVE E THIS
AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AS WELL.

BECAUSE OF THIS WAVE THE SHEAR PROFILES WERE DECENT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESP IN NRN PA AND C NY. HOWEVER...WHAT IS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW UNSTABLE WILL THE AMS BECOME IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRNT. NAM12...HIGHER RES WRF NMM AND WRF ARW ALL INDICATE CAPES
ABV 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR...GFS AND RAP MUCH LOWER.
LOOKING AT THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SITE THE NAM IS ALREADY TOO MOIST
AT 925 MB AND EVEN 850 MB SUGGESTING AFTERNOON MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC WILL NOT BRING DWPTS TO THE UPR 60S AND HENCE CAPES LIKELY
WILL REMAIN BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. SO I HAVE MAINLY CHC POPS FOR
AREAS E OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NW PA AS THIS FRNT MOVES E DURING
MAX HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...ACVTY WINDS DOWN AS THE WAVE PASSES AND WE LOSE THE
DAY/S INSOLATION. A FEW SHRA COULD SNEAK BACK INTO NW PA/SWRN NY LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE SLGHT CHC NW PA. HELD OFF ON POPS IN SW NY
ZONES IN BGM FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE ACVTY
REACHES STEUBEN CO B4 12Z.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
DURING THIS PERIOD...CENTER OF LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY...TO WESTERN
QUEBEC. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS AROUND IT FROM UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
ANOMALIES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND IN TURN...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL REMAIN DRY SLOTTED BETWEEN POOL OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE DRIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL BE
EDGING INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10
CELSIUS...A LITTLE HELP FROM GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
CENTRAL NY MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY...BUT OVERALL TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS INCREASE A BIT WEDNESDAY AS DRY
SLOT SHIFTS EAST...AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CUT
OFF LOW...DROPS INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH OUTER RIM OF MOISTURE
POOLED AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT MORE ISOLATED /IF ANY/ FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
PA INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL GENERALLY BE
GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO
TUESDAY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT /TRACE TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH/ AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM FORECAST ON TRACK. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CNY AS CORE OF COOL AIR/TROF LIFTS OUT. DRIER
WEATHER BEHIND THAT WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH
THE 0Z EURO AND GFS SHOW A DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP US IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AS WE DRAW CLOSER. PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW.

COOL, CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER LOWER CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
OPEN UP AND SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROF BY THURSDAY.

THE UL LOW WILL KEEP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY RAIN-FREE AND
PLEASANT, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FA.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CNY/NEPA FLIGHT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SPOTTY
SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR...AS WELL AS A STUBBORN DECK OF
CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT HAD YET TO MIX HIGHER AS OF 18Z.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO SEE VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SCT-BKN CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING TO SKC-SCT250. THIS SETS THE
STAGE THEN FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION AND HAVE SUGGESTED AT
LEAST SOME DENSE FOG AT KELM AND A MVFR STRATUS CIG AT
KAVP...ALTHOUGH SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE FIGHTING SOME MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MIXING. CONFIDENCE LOW-MED...SO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARD 15Z AFTER
ANY MORNING FOG BURN OFF.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SW...BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT. GENERALLY WNW-WSW 5-10 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH SAT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1103 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

COOL, CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER LOWER CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
OPEN UP AND SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROF BY THURSDAY.

THE UL LOW WILL KEEP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY RAIN-FREE AND
PLEASANT, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FA.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WITH SOME WRINKLES AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SCT SHRA...TIMING AS PER TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. THERE MAY BE
EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING FOR MOST
TERMINALS SO NOT IN TAFS EXCEPT KBGM WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
POSITIONED TO HARNESS DIURNAL HEATING. IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR
KAVP AS WELL IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT THAT WILL BE AFTER 23Z.
SYSTEM OVERALL IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. RESTRICTIONS IF ANY WITH THE
SHRA WILL TEND TO BE MINOR AND BRIEF. WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SW 6-9 KTS TODAY...BEFORE VEERING LIGHT W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH AT KELM FOR VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT 09Z-12Z TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH FRI...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

935 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...

00Z MESO-ANALYSIS DEPICTS A TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN...AND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
SANDHILLS. PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE AVERAGING 1.6-1.7 INCHES IN THIS
REGION. FARTHER WEST...PRECIP WATER VALUES AVERAGED 1.1 INCHES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTED A SHEAR AXIS EDGING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
EASTERN NC. THIS FEATURE INTERACTING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND
MODEST INSTABILITY WAS TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 1...MAINLY IN VICINITY OF WILSON...AND OVER SECTIONS OF THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS. LATEST RUC MODEL SUGGEST A VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT
SHEAR AXIS DRIFTING EAST ALONG THE SC-NC BORDER THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS.

BASED ON HOW WELL ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS MAINTAINED
ITSELF THROUGH MID EVENING AND NEAR TERN MODELS SUGGESTING A THREAT
LASTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT-SMALL CHANCE
POP...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

ANOTHER SHEAR AXIS NOTED CROSSING THE TN-LOWER OH VALLEY THIS
EVENING...APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE
MOISTURE IS MORE LIMITED OVER WESTERN NC...THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE
CLOUDINESS A BIT AND POSSIBLY TRIGGER A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVERNIGHT IN
VICINITY OF THE TRIAD.

IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT TWO
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED ON WED...WITH THE
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW STALLED NORTH OF THE GREAT
LAKES...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA/SOUTHEAST COAST. AS
A RESULT...EXPECT CONDITIONS ON WED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION IN COASTAL/FAR-EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE FAR SE
COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES (I.E. CUMBERLAND/SAMPSON/WAYNE). ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE STALLED UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO PROGRESS INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE WED NIGHT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONTAL
ZONE SHIFTS FURTHER INLAND (ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP) AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL WIND/HEIGHT FIELDS RESPOND TO THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE
EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THE APPROACHING WAVE...THE STALLED FRONTAL
ZONE...AND WHETHER AN INLAND SHIFT IN PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR (AS
THE GFS SUGGESTS) OR PRECIPITATION REMAINS ALONG THE COAST (AS THE
NAM SUGGESTS). -VINCENT

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

FRONTAL ZONE REMAINS PINNED ALONG THE NC COAST AS MILD HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTH DOWN THE EASTERN SPINE OF
THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...ALOFT...THE FRONTAL
ZONE LIES BETWEEN A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST AND
STRONGER OFFSHORE RIDGE WHICH WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST...PROVIDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AS WELL AS
NUDGING THE FRONT SLOWLY INLAND. WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN ONLY
MARGINALLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL...~30%...AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ON
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. CLOUDINESS WILL BECOME MORE
PREVALENT ON SATURDAY AS OVERRUNNING EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO INCREASING POPS AS THE WEEKEND APPROACHES. HIGHS EACH
DAY WILL BE PRETTY NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL...POTENTIALLY COOLER ON
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY SUNDAY AS WELL...IF THE DAMMING AND PRECIP
SCENARIO MATERIALIZES.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE WILL POTENTIALLY BE
SUBJECT TO THE INFLUENCE OF TS ERIKA. WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK TROF
AREA BETWEEN AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE IN THE MIDWEST AND THE STRONGER AND
STILL RETROGRADING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC...WHICH SHOULD BE THE DETERMINING STEERING MECHANISM FOR
ERIKA OR HER REMAINS. REGARDLESS...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND SHOULD SEE AN UPTICK IN TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION IN THE MOIST AIRMASS. STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING... OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...
KFAY/KRWI). HOWEVER... WITH A STALLED COLD FRONT LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA AND GENERALLY A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY... WE WILL HAVE AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. IN
ADDITION... MVFR/IFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS/NEAR SUNRISE WEDNESDAY MORNING AT THE KFAY/KRWI TERMINALS
(POSSIBLY EVEN KRDU)... PARTICULARLY THE KFAY TERMINAL IN CLOSER
VICINITY TO THE STALLED FRONTAL ZONE. FURTHER WEST AT THE KINT/KGSO
TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS AND A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WHERE STRATUS DOES DEVELOP...
EXPECT IT WILL SLOWLY LIFT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS BY MID AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION (MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
AGAIN... THOUGH TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME).

LOOKING AHEAD: A POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND LOW CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST AT FAY/RWI (PARTICULARLY FAY) THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE
STALLED FRONT IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

816 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...

IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT TWO
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM TUESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...BSD/VINCENT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

130 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
IN THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY STILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. AS LONG AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AIR IS
WINNING OUT TODAY. HAVE UPDATED POP TO BEST MATCH RADAR BUT
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK:

AS OF 1000 MONDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY...AS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT AND
OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND WILL
BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST OF THESE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTN. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...SOME ENHANCED
PVA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...WILL DRIVE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTN. NSSL WRF SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WHILE THE HRRR IS MUCH LESS ROBUST. DRY AIR
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND PROGGED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LESSER AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD VERIFY MORE ACCURATELY...AND HAVE
TONED DOWN POP THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. STILL A FEW
PLACES WILL SEE A SHOWER OR TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT NOTHING STRONG AND
IT APPEARS MANY PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE/NVA IN ITS
WAKE...AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
COALESCE TO CREATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR
RACING EASTWARD AND THE LACK OF ANY DIURNAL EFFECTS DUE TO LATE
TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. HAVE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL SO MAY WALK POP DOWN
LATER THIS AFTN FOR TONIGHTS IMPULSE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
AREA-WIDE. LOWS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...FALLING TO AROUND 70 WELL INLAND...73 AT THE COAST

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM APPEARS A BIT UNSETTLED AS A
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND STALLS RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES
TUESDAY AND VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY. LATER WEDNESDAY IT
MAY RETREAT WESTWARD AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY WHICH WILL TEND TO MEAN HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS SINCE WE
NOT ONLY HAVE MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT ALSO
PERHAPS SOME DEEPER COUPLED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET STREAK. AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS ARE NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN
UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE DEEPER SLOW MOVING CELLS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED NEAR
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY MAY GET DRAWN INLAND AGAIN BY UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INCITING LOW PRESSURE ON THE BOUNDARY. AS SUCH WILL RAISE
POPS SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. IT MAY ALSO BE
TIME TO START RE-EVALUATING HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS
NOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY MODELED TO HANG BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH
POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS POINT
BUT WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS REALLY DIGS THE ENERGY ALOFT AND
CHANNELS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALL WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PWATS ARE DECENT...THERE JUST SEEMS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY
AIR IN THE MID LAYERS TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION. IT WILL BE
ISOLATED MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RESULTANT AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS....WITH MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WELL INLAND. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIE
DIURNALLY AROUND 22Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:

AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY...WITH THE LATEST
OB FROM 41013 REPORTING ONLY 3 KTS AND JUST 1 KT AT JMPN7. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND BECOME S/SE...BUT REMAIN AT
10 KTS OR LESS EVEN WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE SEA BREEZE. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVE SPECTRUM SWELL DOMINATED...WITH 2 DISTINCT
SWELLS PRESENT. WHILE BOTH OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE FROM THE SE...THE
PERIODS WILL BE VASTLY DIFFERENT. AN 8-9 SEC SE SWELL...THE TYPICAL
GROUND SWELL...WILL BE FEATURED...BUT A MUCH LONGER 12 SEC SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...LIKELY SOME FORERUNNER SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALL OF THE
WAVE GROUPS WILL BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE HOWEVER...SO TOTAL SEAS WILL
REMAIN 1-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
ON TUESDAY BRINING A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL
SWELL COMPONENT FROM DANNY FOR A DOMINANT WAVE FORECAST OF 2 TO 3
FT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY REACH THE COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THEN PULL BACK A BIT AIDED BY BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. A SHORTENING OF THE PERIOD OF THE DANNY SWELL IN
WNA BULLETS SUGGESTS THE SWELL ALREADY WEAKENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WHILE WIND AND WAVES WILL BOTH BE RATHER
MINIMAL DURING THE LONG TERM SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO PROGRESS
SOUTH OF THE REGION NOW MAY NOT DO SO DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY
ALOFT. FOR NOW IT SEEMS POSSIBLE AND PLAUSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM RETAINS AN ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT. DANNY SWELL CONTINUES
TO ABATE AND LIKELY BECOMES INDISCERNIBLE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1030 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 MONDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY...AS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT AND
OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND WILL
BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
AREA-WIDE. LOWS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...FALLING TO AROUND 70 WELL INLAND...73 AT THE COAST

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG/STRATUS INLAND WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
13Z...MIXING OUT AFTER THAT. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES PLENTY OF
MID CLOUD TODAY. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY HAS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FAIRLY ISOLATED HOWEVER. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL REEVALUATE ON THE NEXT
SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE THROUGH FRI.

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY...WITH THE LATEST
OB FROM 41013 REPORTING ONLY 3 KTS AND JUST 1 KT AT JMPN7. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND BECOME S/SE...BUT REMAIN AT
10 KTS OR LESS EVEN WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE SEA BREEZE. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVE SPECTRUM SWELL DOMINATED...WITH 2 DISTINCT
SWELLS PRESENT. WHILE BOTH OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE FROM THE SE...THE
PERIODS WILL BE VASTLY DIFFERENT. AN 8-9 SEC SE SWELL...THE TYPICAL
GROUND SWELL...WILL BE FEATURED...BUT A MUCH LONGER 12 SEC SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...LIKELY SOME FORERUNNER SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALL OF THE
WAVE GROUPS WILL BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE HOWEVER...SO TOTAL SEAS WILL
REMAIN 1-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

744 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT HAVE HELPED
A FEW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. MOST SHOWERS HAVE YIELDED MINIMAL PRECIPITATION BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE A FEW
OF THEM TO DEVELOP INTO MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OR EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ON RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE TRIAD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...DONT
EXPECT SHOWERS TO HAVE MUCH CONSEQUENCE THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS WREAKING HAVOC ON FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS PROBABLY ENDING UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD...TEMPS COULD DIVE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
IF THIS HAPPENS QUICK ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE AS WELL...AS NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VA. OVERALL EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW
70S WEST.

AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL
NC. PRIOR TO THAT OCCURRING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. NONE
OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER ONLY. MAX
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER...TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
TRIAD JUST BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD...AND END UP
JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE BY 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT EXITING THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS
ITS PARENT LOW CHANGES DIRECTION AND STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE TRIAD WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

SHOWERS IN THE EAST SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. DURING THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH RELAXES AS A
RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN
HOW EXACTLY THE EASTERN TROUGH EVOLVES EXACTLY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN TIME...A SHEAR AXIS
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A MOIST FLOW RIDES OVER THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...A LINGERING THREAT OF SCATTERED...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE
RAIN THREAT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR NOW
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TO EVER SO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA HAS CEASED AT THIS TIME. AS
EXPECTED...HAVE SOME SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BOTH IN THE
TRIAD AND AT KRWI THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FIRST BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND THEN LATER WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH KINT AND KGSO NEAR 00Z WITH PASSAGE THROUGH KRDU
AFTER 6Z AND KFAY AND KRWI CLOSER TO 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

LONG TERM: THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND THUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

315 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN STALL NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...A LINGERING THREAT OF SCATTERED...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE
RAIN THREAT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR NOW
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
WEEEKEND. SEASONABLE TO EVER SO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD ALONG A
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN VA TO WEST OF CHARLOTTE AT THIS
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM EITHER. BACK TO THE EAST SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND KFAY BUT THE THREAT NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION...LOTS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS AN EXCEPTION IN THE NORTHEAST
AND AS SUCH HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
MVFR FOG AT KRWI. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN CEILING HERE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE TRIAD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE IT HAS
RAINED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LATER IN THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL NC AND THEN A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

306 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WELL-ESTABLISHED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR EAST ALONG THE COAST. IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL OPEN UP
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...LEAVING A WEAK OPEN
TROUGH AND WEAK FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY AT TIMES DURING THE MID TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...BUT THE BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE...BASED ON TODAY`S
MODEL RUNS...APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN COUNTIES...DRY AIR SHOULD PREVAIL. AS FOR TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOW IN THE MID
60S...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIGHT NOW...NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THIS CAN CHANGE SINCE MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THAT TIME.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...WFO RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAP AND HRRR HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP SOME LOW VIS FROM THE
NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY EASTWARD. DEW POINTS IN THAT AREA HAVE
BEEN COMING UP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES...AND THERE HAS
BEEN A DROP TO 7 MILES VIS AT LANGDON. THINK SOME
VERY PATCHY SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY OVER PLACES
THAT HAVE RECENT RAINFALL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL LAST
LONG WITH THE SFC HIGH MOVING EAST...BUT THREW IN A BRIEF MENTION
OF PATCHY FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY SHORTLY AFTER 07Z AND
TRANSITIONING OVER INTO NORTHWEST MN TOWARDS MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. SOME SMOKE FROM FIRES TO OUR
NORTHWEST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HOWEVER...IT IS ALL HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT AND WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY INCLUSION IN THE GRIDS UNTIL IT CAUSES REDUCTION IN VIS AT THE
SFC.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPS...UNTIL THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PCPN ROLLS IN FOR THU INTO FRI. AS OF MID AFTERNOON THERE WERE A
FEW PATCHES OF MID CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN FA. A FEW ECHOES
WERE EVEN SHOWING UP ON RADAR BUT THINK THIS IS VIRGA AT MOST.
LOOKING AT MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA TOO...BUT IT DOES
APPEAR TO BE PRETTY THIN AT THIS POINT. THERE WAS SOME PATCHY FOG
AROUND THIS MORNING...BUT IT WAS ISOLATED TO JUST A FEW RIVER
VALLEYS. THINK THE THIN SMOKE LAYER OVER THE FA WED WILL BE LIKE
A CIRRUS LAYER. HIGHS LOOKING A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MODELS ARE DELAYING THE ONSET OF THE THU PCPN CHANCES TO THE
AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...AND MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THESE
CHANCES WILL SPREAD INTO THE EAST BY THU. NOT LOOKING LIKE A LOT
OF PCPN FOR THIS AREA AS THE MAIN PCPN SWATH STAYS WELL TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST.

SATURDAY TO TUESDAY...OVERALL DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. 500MB UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND THE DRY FORECAST. A
SHORT WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE RIDGE BY MONDAY BRINGING A
SLGT CHC OF THUNDER TO THE WESTERN AREAS AND THE ENTIRE AREA BY
TUESDAY. WITH WEEKEND HIGHS IN THE 80S THE MAX TEMPS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BUMPED UP SKC TO FEW-SCT250 FOR MOSTLY SMOKE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN FORECAST AREA. DO NOT EXPECT SMOKE TO IMPACT SFC VIS AT
THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AROUND
TOWARDS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT
WILL REMAIN UNDER 12 KTS.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1228 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
EAST OF KIPT AND KMDT...THEN FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THRU BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR SE
ONTARIO. LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKING INTO CENTRAL PA SHOULD BRING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE
WARREN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASINGLY COOL AIR ALOFT FLOWING OVR LK
ERIE COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS/SCT SHOWERS TOWARD
DAWN TUESDAY.

THE NW MTNS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO A FEW LAKE EFFECT -SHRA
THRU TUESDAY...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK ERIE. GEFS 8H
TEMP ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 SD BLW CLIMO. WHILE THE NW
MTNS WILL BE DEALING WITH MCLDY SKIES TUESDAY...DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD YIELD A SUNNY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS BTWN 8C-12C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL
BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING A COOL/DRY STRETCH OF WX WED-FRI. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CHC OF A FEW PM SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED-THU...RESULTING
FROM COOL POOL ALOFT CENTERED JUST NORTH OF PA. ANY RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MODERATING TEMPS AND CONTINUED DRY WX EXPECTED SAT...AS UPPER LOW
OVR SE CANADA LIFTS OUT AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM UP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH SLIPS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. GEFS/ECENS BOTH
INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF PM SHOWERS THAT
DAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CNTRL PA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME DESTABILIZATION WAS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH BEST
CHANCE FOR ANY TSRA TO BE IN THE KMDT-KLNS AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...GENRALLY VFR IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WITH SCT-BKN CU CEILINGS DISSIPATING TO
SCT CIRRUS...IF THAT. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT STAY UP
A BIT TO MAKE FOG FORECASTING LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR SOME MVFR LATE.

COOL UPPER LOW DROPS INTO THE AREA THROUGH MID WEEK WITH MAINLY
DAYTIME VFR CIGS AS A RESULT OF BROKEN CU FIELDS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

FRI-SAT...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

1024 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
APPROACH THE PANHANDLES FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES AROUND
00Z TO 06Z THURSDAY WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST
OF THE THREE TAF SITES LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COULD
POSSIBLY IMPACT THE DALHART TAF SITE WITH SOME CONSIDERABLE HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WEDNESDAY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
ALL THREE TAF SITES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...MAINLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS...CAN
BE EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 12Z TO 14Z OR SO WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD
VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 13Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY
AND THEN BACK AROUND AGAIN TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 18Z TO 20Z
WEDNESDAY 5 TO 15 KNOTS. THESE SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KNOT WINDS SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.

SCHNEIDER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY OVER THE PANHANDLES BY 00Z THURSDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS OR LESS AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...AND THEN VEERING AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 13Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THIS IS DEFINITELY A QUIETER FORECAST PERIOD THAN HAS BEEN THE CASE
IN RECENT WEEKS. THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER AZ/NM AND EXTENDING INTO
HIGH PLAINS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ARIZONA TODAY WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE AND HELP TO BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE PANHANDLES LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ENHANCED LIFT
WITH THE SYSTEM...AS WELL AS SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT...COULD HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES AROUND THIS TIME. BEST CONFIDENCE IS AROUND THE TIME OF
FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH 20 TO 50 POPS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY PERIODS.

THE RIDGE THEN BUILDS BACK OVERHEAD AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES
EASTWARD. HAVE KEPT THE REST OF THE FORECAST DRY...AS BEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK.
COULD SEE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN IN THE NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DEPENDING ON WHERE RIDGE SETS UP
EXACTLY. TEMPERATURES MOSTLY NEAR TO JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

11/10

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
954 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show a cluster of cells moving SW thru the Wrn Low
Rolling Plains. This should diminish short of Midland. We`ve done
an update to expand areal coverage in the grids to account for
this. Updates have been sent.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms have remained east of area TAF sites, and are
expected to gradually diminish through the evening. Aside from
perhaps a weak outflow boundary or two affecting KFST or KMAF,
no impacts are expected from these storms. VFR conditions with
generally light southeasterly winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Short-term focus this evening will be on the potential for
isolated thunderstorms over much of west Texas and southeastern
New Mexico. CAMS, and in particular the last several HRRR runs,
cover much of the Permian Basin in freckles until some cold pool
amalgamation promotes a few clusters. Not certain but suspect the
HRRR is resolving updrafts; then again, a look to the east seems
to support a consensus of the last several HRRR runs as well as
the NSSL WRF. Nothing much was resolved over the Guadalupes or
over the northwestern Permian Basin/central and northern Lea
County where a MOGR CU field is seen in satellite imagery. All
this to say that this evening`s PoPs are aligned in such a way to
capture most of what the Mark 0 Mod 1 eyeball is seeing. An
ingredients-based approach yields very little except for the
potential for sub-severe wind gusts should an updraft persist.
Look for convective activity to die off around sunset with loss of
sensible heating and PBL decoupling.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the consensus here is for the upper
ridge to strengthen overhead. This means we can expect a warmup of
around five degrees over climatology, which puts portions of the
Upper Trans Pecos and the Rio Grande valley into triple-digit
heat. Unless you`re fortunate enough to be in the mountains where
highs will be in the 80s, the rest of us will see highs both days
in the mid to upper 90s. Mid-tropospheric drying is trying to
work its way southwestward but is balanced out a bit by recycled
moisture from the current monsoon burst. Thus we`ll maintain low-
order afternoon and evening PoPs for the mountains.

Friday gets a little interesting. A short wave trough forming
from the monsoon burst becomes entrained in the westerlies
Thursday, then amplifies a bit in northwesterly flow aloft over
the Midwest. The NAM looks to be a bit overdeveloped here while
the GFS and SREF maintain a weaker trough. With the understanding
that the SREF, like any ensemble model, is underdispersive and
tends to smooth the edges of the ensemble envelope, this solution
looks to be closer to what we expect reality to look like 84 hours
out. While upper level support will be lacking, modest surface
pressure rises in the wake of the aforementioned short wave
trough will be enough to send a windshift down across the Texas
Panhandle and perhaps become quasi-stationary over the northern
Permian Basin by Friday afternoon. Again, an ingredients-based
approach argues against anything significant; however, diabatic
heating and weak convergence along this boundary should be enough
to gin up isolated TSRA Friday afternoon and evening.

Going into the weekend and next week, temperatures look to
moderate some while cloudiness and afternoon/evening TSRA will
remain confined to the eastern fringes of the monsoon, namely over
far west Texas and the mountains and adjacent plains of
southeastern New Mexico. Out beyond the extended, an expected
shift toward a -PNA regime ought to shift the subtropical high
east of here, while a shift toward lower heights in the north
Atlantic supports carving out an upper level weakness over the
southeastern states. This weakness is then carried down into the
western Gulf where it becomes a TUTT low, then back north into
Texas by next weekend. Rain chances may increase over the region
as a result, but all this could come to naught, too. Will take a
chance of something than no chance at all.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX 73 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 68 95 67 95 / 10 10 10 10
DRYDEN TX 73 101 73 100 / 10 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 70 95 71 97 / 10 10 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 67 88 67 89 / 20 10 10 10
HOBBS NM 68 93 67 93 / 10 10 10 0
MARFA TX 58 89 59 89 / 10 10 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 96 71 98 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 72 96 72 97 / 10 10 10 0
WINK TX 72 99 72 100 / 10 10 10 0

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

84/44

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...
A STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING THE SAN ANTONIO AIRPORTS
AND WILL BRING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KTS WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR. BY 01Z WINDS SHOULD BE BACK TO 10 KTS OR LESS. THERE IS ALSO
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AFTER THIS BOUNDARY
PASSES THROUGH...BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW. OTHER THAN THIS
BOUNDARY CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...AT 230 PM THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAD ENTERED THE NORTHEAST CWA AND WAS LOCATED
NEAR A BURNET TO MANOR TO LA GRANGE LINE...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AROUND 20 MPH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH
ADDITIONAL OUTFLOWS AIDING IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY
SOUTH AND WEST. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...PER MSAS ANALYSIS OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH HI RES MODELS...WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AS WELL AS EAST OF I-35. DCAPE
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS RESULTING IN
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

DRIER AIR WILL START TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTH AND FAR EASTERN
CWA OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DEEPER NORTH TO NORTHEAST
FLOW ALOFT DRIVES DRIER AIR ALL THE WAY INTO THE CWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUES OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PWATS DOWN
AROUND AN INCH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL YIELD COMFORTABLE MORNING
LOWS AND WARM AFTERNOON HIGHS. DEW POINTS MIXING OUT INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES IN CHECK. ANY PRECIP
CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA.

AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS IS FORECAST TO CLOSE OFF OVER
NEAR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AT LEAST ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST ZONES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY POSSIBLY LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE GLOBAL
MODELS HANDLING OF THIS FEATURE...THUS PRECIP CHANCES FARTHER
WEST INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND HILL COUNTRY NEXT WEEK ARE
UNCERTAIN.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 74 98 73 99 71 / 20 20 - 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 96 70 97 68 / 20 20 - 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 99 72 99 70 / 20 20 - 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 72 98 70 / 20 10 - 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 101 77 101 73 / 20 10 10 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 71 98 70 / 20 10 - 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 72 99 68 / 20 20 10 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 72 97 70 / 20 20 - 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 74 96 70 98 70 / 20 20 - 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 77 99 75 98 72 / 20 20 - 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 74 99 71 / 20 20 - 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
631 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

.AVIATION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 247 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

340 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HAVE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TODAY THAT THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KICK UP A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED ISO TRW WORDING FOR EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE
CURRENT SEA BREEZE POSITION WITH A 10 POP FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY STORMS YET...ONE COULD
DEVELOP. A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WITH A NORTHWEST
PROGRESSION...WHILE EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY IN CASE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS SURVIVE THAT LONG. HRRR MODEL WOULD INDICATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS MAINLY NORTH TEXAS. MODELS
TRYING TO INDICATE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ALONG WITH
MINIMAL POOLED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE
DAY...MOSTLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. TRIMMED BACK THE 30 POPS A
BIT...AS MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF MOISTURE. TUESDAY NIGHT
GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE 12Z NAM WENT OUT ON A LIMB WITH
SEEMINGLY UNREALISTIC FEATURES AND A MOISTURE BULLSEYE. THE 18Z
HAS COMPLETELY FLIPPED ON THIS. THE GFS DOES STILL PRODUCE SOME
QPF ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO SILL STICK
WITH A 20 POP JUST IN CASE...HOWEVER THINK WE/LL BE MAINLY DRY.
HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING OFFSHORE WHERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING QPF.

WIND PATTERN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD GET SOME ORGANIZATION IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FASHION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OF JUST
BELOW 1 INCH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS WITH
UPPER 60S EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS. 12Z GFS IS HANDLING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OR SHEAR AXIS DIFFERENTLY THAN THE ECM.
THE UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL EITHER MOVE TO THE WEST OR BECOME REINFORCED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY MONDAY. 00Z ECM KEPT THE
UPPER LOW OR SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY. INTRODUCTION OF POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODELS HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 96 77 95 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
VICTORIA 75 96 75 96 70 / 10 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 76 102 76 101 75 / 20 10 10 20 10
ALICE 75 98 75 98 71 / 10 10 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 78 94 79 94 76 / 10 20 20 20 10
COTULLA 75 102 75 100 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 75 97 76 97 72 / 10 10 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 78 92 79 93 78 / 10 10 20 20 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

329 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A weak cold front is stalled generally along a line from near
Barnhart...to Eldorado...to Brady. A cumulus field has developed
this afternoon in the vicinity of the front. The HRRR continues to
depict isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon and early evening.
Uncertainty remains on the extent of convection this afternoon,
but slight chance PoPs were kept for much of the area, with the
best chance across the southern two thirds of the area. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, as very slow movement is
expected. In addition, isolated downbursts will be possible. Most
of the convection is expected to dissipate shortly after sunset,
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows will generally be
in the 70s, although a few locations may drop into the upper 60s.

Models continue to indicate an upper level disturbance moving
across the area Tuesday in the north flow aloft. This in
combination with what is left of the dissipating cold front will
result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon, with the best chance across the eastern half of the
region. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 90s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The extended portion of the forecast will be mainly dry, and
continued hot with temperatures averaging 5 or more degrees above
normal through next weekend.

Decided to keep slight chance PoPs going through Tuesday evening
as a weak front continues to ease southward. The best chances by
Tuesday evening should be generally south of a San Saba to
Eldorado line where the front is expected to move to by the
evening hours. Once again, if these storms develop, the main
hazards will be gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. Have also
kept very low end slight chance PoPs Wednesday afternoon and early
evening as remnant outflow boundaries possibly left behind by
Tuesday`s activity could result in isolated showers or storms
Wednesday afternoon.

From Thursday through the weekend, the upper level ridge over the
southwestern U. S. will keep our weather hot and dry. Have
nudged afternoon highs up a degree or two for the second half of
the week as the ridge takes control, allowing the atmosphere to
warm. Another cold front could possibly move into the area next
weekend, but models show it struggling to make progress southward
after reaching west central Texas, so will just trend temperatures
downward a couple degrees next weekend into Monday for now.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 95 72 97 / 10 20 10 5
San Angelo 72 98 71 100 / 20 20 10 10
Junction 71 97 70 98 / 20 30 20 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

214 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HAS FIRED OFF A SMALL CLUSTER
OF CONV THAT IS STRADDLING THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT THIS TIME THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS MAY IMPACT THE MFE
AIRPORT AREA ON THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS. ADDITIONAL CONV IS FIRING
FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE BUT MAY DIE OFF AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
MORE STABLE OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM THE CONV TO THE WEST. WILL
UPDATE THE MFR TAF TO ENHANCE THE CONV WORDING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE CONV TO MOVE WEST AND DISIPATE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND THE
DIURNAL HEATING DIES OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR KHRL AND KMFE LATE
AFTERNOON. BE ALERT FOR VARYING GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED IS DUE TO
DOWNPOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WHILE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRETCH ACROSS TEXAS...WEAK H2 CUTOFF LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
SW GULF. SOME OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PW VALUES ALSO
RISING LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED TO
LOWER LEVELS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THE
SEABREEZE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS MODEST ENOUGH THAT THE
SEABREEZE WILL PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE RIVER...SO HAVE TAILORED POP CHANCES TO
THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT OF THE H2 LOW WILL OPEN UP
BUT REMAIN IN THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. DRIER AIR MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...LIMITING POP CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR REACHES THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DEPENDS ON WHICH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A BETTER HANDLE
OF THE 500MB SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. THE
ECWMF PROGS AN INVERTED TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY AND BRINGS IT WESTWARD SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A 500MB
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE MSL FIELD TO REMAIN FAIRLY
RELAXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL
VEER TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 77 91 / 10 10 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 78 96 77 93 / 10 10 20 20
HARLINGEN 77 99 75 96 / 10 10 20 20
MCALLEN 80 101 78 99 / 10 10 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 101 76 99 / 10 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 78 86 / 10 10 30 30

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 24/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through 25/18Z.
Beginning to see signs of convective development over the Davis
Mountains south across the Marfa Plateau and much of Brewster
County. Isolated TSRA is possible just about anywhere today, but
confidence is sufficiently low to preclude mention of TSRA at any
one terminal. Shortly after sunset, isolated thunderstorm
development will wane, leaving the area with a bit of convective
debris aloft and light and variable winds at the surface.

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Latest mesoanalysis suggests an area of convergence and fronto-
genesis along I-10 roughly centered around KFST. In addition,
surface theta analyses indicate something resembling a baroclinic
zone extending from the Davis Mountains east-northeastward to
north central Texas. We do see a weak core west of SH 118 south
of Kent and MOGR CU over much of southwest TX extending northeast
into the southern Permian Basin.

There`s plenty of moisture around with surface Tds in the lower
60s, with localized higher amounts where it rained yesterday.
Precipitable water values are running around 1.5. There`s a bit of
instability to be had, but mid level lapse rates are anemic and
wind shear is pretty much nonexistent. As a result, low-level cold
pools will play a critical role in secondary CI and upscale
growth. The last series of HRRR runs are optimistic about
scattered TSRA across the southern Permian Basin while the NSSL
WRF and TTU WRF are less optimistic. Right now I`m leaning more
toward the less optimistic side, but wouldn`t be surprised to see
CI somewhere in the southern Basin by 21Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast. Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County. MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6". Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin. W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM. Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week. Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend. Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1245 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT BELOW A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT.

EXPECT TO SEE A SMALL AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED...IN REGION MORE DISPLACED FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT EASTERN
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE AN IFR OR MVFR CEILING.

COCKRELL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THERE REMAINS A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE THIS DECK DIMINISH WITH TIME AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TERMINALS
TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A LOW
STRATUS DECK FOR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE SO HAVE BEGUN A LOWERING
TREND WHILE REMAINING OPTIMISTIC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PROVIDED ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
PERIODS OF INCREASED COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ENDING
PRIOR TO NOON WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. THINK WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES UNTIL NOON THEN TURN RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY
INTO THE LOW TO MED 80S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE USED THE LESS THAN 10 POP RULE TO INSERT MENTION OF
STORMS FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT 20 TO
30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO BECOME
STRONG PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING
FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WYOMING
AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IF AVAILABLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS LINE UP WITH PEAK
HEATING. BY FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND WHETHER RESULTING
FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR IF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPRESSED UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
NOW...HAVE TRENDED WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHAVIOR
BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

ELSENHEIMER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

03/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

617 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THERE REMAINS A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE THIS DECK DIMINISH WITH TIME AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TERMINALS
TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A LOW
STRATUS DECK FOR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE SO HAVE BEGUN A LOWERING
TREND WHILE REMAINING OPTIMISTIC.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

ELSENHEIMER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

14/18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PROVIDED ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
PERIODS OF INCREASED COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ENDING
PRIOR TO NOON WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. THINK WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES UNTIL NOON THEN TURN RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY
INTO THE LOW TO MED 80S.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING
FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WYOMING
AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IF AVAILABLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS LINE UP WITH PEAK
HEATING. BY FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND WHETHER RESULTING
FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR IF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPRESSED UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
NOW...HAVE TRENDED WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHAVIOR
BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

ELSENHEIMER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

14/18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1228 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WOULD BE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP NEAR KAUS AFTER 18Z MONDAY. FEW/SCT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION NEAR
KAUS MONDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN SMALL AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
LATER FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE S/SW NEAR 5 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z THEN
BECOME E/SE NEAR 10 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
SOUTH BUT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

THE NEWLY ADDED WEATHER PARAMETER FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IS PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF A CAMPBELLTON TO
GONZALES TO LA GRANGE LINE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
ARE IN THE MID 70S AND FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR VCT FOR THE 09Z AND 12Z
TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THIS OUTCOME. MATCHING WELL WITH CRP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW/SCT CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOCTURNAL STRATUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEAR
KAUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES WERE TOO SMALL TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS OR STORMS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MAY SEE A STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN LAVACA AND/OR DEWITT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BUT ARE LACKING MUCH OTHER THAN
HEATING TO GET PARCELS OFF THE SURFACE. NOT MUCH CAPPING IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL WARMING WAS ADVERTISED IN
THE RAP SOUNDINGS SO THIS SHOULD STAY ISOLATED. ONLY MENTIONED
SOME ISO THUNDER WITH SUB 20 PERCENT POPS IN THIS VICINITY AS A
RESULT.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN MEXICO AND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY. NOTHING HAZARDOUS
IS EXPECTED THOUGH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE PROSPECT FOR CHC POPS
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PROVIDE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO A FEW THIS SUMMER THAT
HAVE RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. AS THE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS...MODELS ARE SHOWING
VARYING AMOUNTS OF QPF GENERATION...MOSTLY DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FRONTAL STRENGTH. THE MOST BULLISH MODEL AS
FAR AS QPF GENERATION GOES IS THE ECMWF AS IT CAPTURES REMNANT
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. THE GFS DOES NOT PRESCRIBE TO THIS AT ALL AND THE NAM
GIVES AN EASTERN PREFERENCE WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL. HAVE
FAVORED THE NAM DEPICTION THIS PACKAGE AND WPC QPF SEEMS TO AGREE.
THEREFORE OPTED FOR THE CHC POPS TO MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT CAN PUSH A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS IN
AGREEMENT IN BOTH EURO AND GFS MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FROM PERTURBATION TO PERTURBATION AS WELL FOR
OVER 100 HOURS OUT. CONTINUE TO BE SKEPTICAL OF EURO ADVERTISEMENT
OF QPF STRETCHING FROM THE GULF INTO THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN EAGLE EYE WILL ENSUE ON THE ECMWF ENTERING THE WEEK FOR
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 99 77 100 75 / - 20 - 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 75 99 73 / - 20 - 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 75 100 74 / - - - 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 75 98 73 / - 20 10 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 77 101 76 / - - 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 74 / - 20 10 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 74 99 73 / - - 0 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 74 / - - - 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 99 74 / - - 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 77 99 76 / - - - 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 100 76 / - - 0 20 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE OVER MAINLY W-SW TAF SITES. MODELS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY WITH
REGARD TO MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. THE RAP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12 AND GFS TEND TO SUPPORT
THIS BUT THE QPF OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. 4KM WRF JUST ARRIVED AND IT PAINTS A VERY PICTURE LATE
TOMORROW AFTN INTO MON EVENING. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES ABOUND
BETWEEN MODELS. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND A RAP/NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS THE ADDITION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND DECREASING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT... WITH THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST ON TRACK. ALSO
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND BASED ON ANTICIPATED
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING BUT LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE NAM12 ON MONDAY
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH
A GAP TOMORROW EVENING AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 06Z. WILL
START SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING. IN THE SHORT
TERM...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG IN A
FEW SPOTS TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. 43

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
ISO TSRA DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL/NEAR COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTN
BUT COVERAGE DECIDEDLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS WELL. HOWEVER THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FCST LOOKS TO
BE THE CHCS OF RAIN WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE MON/TUES. GFS KEEPING WITH A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE
OTHERS...BUT BOTH SIDES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE BIASES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT EDGE FOR THE WETTER MODELS WITH THIS EVENT AND STICK
WITH THE CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.

THE DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE WED ON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RATHER HEALTHY
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS. BUT DESPITE THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST TO THE WEST WE SHOULD STAY DRY (POPS-WISE) DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. 41

MARINE...
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK OFF THE COAST
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY MIDWEEK. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE GULF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 99 76 98 73 / 10 20 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 99 76 98 74 / 10 20 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 91 80 / 10 10 20 30 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

644 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...

KFCX 88D RADAR WAS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND EVEN MORE
ISOLATED...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR A MARTINSVILLE TO LYNCHBURG
LINE. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100
PM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE FOCUSED ON
PUTTING HIGHER POPS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY WHERE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS HIGHEST.

AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRAVEL EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.
SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED SFC BASED CAPES FROM 1 TO 2K
J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WAS ENHANCED JUST EAST OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BETTER THREAT FOR STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. AN ISOLATED PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST...BUT GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...LACK OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND WEST FLOW...SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. LEANED POPS TOWARDS HRRR FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN BLENDED ISC GRIDS TOWARDS
SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL LAG A FEW HOURS AS
USUAL BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT...BUT SHARP DEWPOINT DROPS NOTED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO
COOLER COOP MOS VALUES. IT SHOULD BE A GOOD NIGHT TO OPEN THE
WINDOWS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ALOFT THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AN EASTERN TROF AND GREAT
LAKES CLOSED LOW SLOWING TRAVELING EAST TUESDAY. UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE AUGUST WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE WEEK ALLOWING COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO AND NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE PER DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONT...WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SUPPORTIVE OF COOL NIGHTS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH MOISTURE TO THE EAST ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AND EARLY ON FOR MORE UPSLOPE INDUCED CLOUDS WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ONLY BOOST CLOUDS A BIT AND LEAVE
OUT POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPS THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR
ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SUBSEQUENT REINFORCING POCKETS OF 85H
COOL ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS PERHAPS MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FAR WEST AND SOME MIXING
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM. THUS
BUMPED UP LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE DEEPEST
VALLEYS SEEING A FEW 40S AND MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE. NOT QUITE AS COOL
THURSDAY MORNING BUT STILL 50S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST GIVEN A SLIGHT
REBOUND IN DEWPOINTS OUT EAST. EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER TO JUST BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS PENDING HEATING OF DRY AIR SO TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
RESULTING IN BRIEF ZONAL 5H FLOW BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RATHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK TO SETTLE SOUTH AND OVERHEAD DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST MODELS DEPICT THIS
SCENARIO IN KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE OLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST
WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANT WAVE OF DANNY SPAWNING A WEAK LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES JUST
ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN BY DAYS 6/7 UNDER THE WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO BRING A RETURN OF LEAST SOME DIURNAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OTRW SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN A REBOUND TOWARD HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON MOST OF
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT. HELD ON TO THE VCSH IN WESTERN TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS AT ROA/LYH/DAN FOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL HINDER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS...HARD TO SAY WHICH
TAF LOCATION HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...BUT LEND TOWARDS
DAN.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
ADVERTISING FOG AT LWB/BCB AND BLF...BUT BELIEVE THE DRIER AIR
WILL WIN OUT AND KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM. JUST AT SOME LIGHT FOG AT
LWB OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITY AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING IT
VFR. MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG THAT
DISSIPATES QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE FAVORED TERMINALS LWB/BCB.
MVFR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

313 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT MONDAY...

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITY AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

610 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CHALLENGES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY INCLUDE CLOUD TRENDS...
TEMPERATURES AND FOG POTENTIAL. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS
WITH REGARD TO HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND MOVE OUT TONIGHT...
BUT OTHERWISE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

25.20Z SURFACE LOW ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL FINALLY BEGIN
TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT...ALLOWING EXPANSIVE STRATOCUMULUS
DECK ACROSS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION TO SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF
THE FORECAST AREA. 25.18Z RAP 1 KM 90 PERCENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY
CONTOUR HAS BEEN A GOOD PROXY TO CURRENT CLOUD COVER AND SHOWS
MOST CLOUDS DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
25.06Z. THIS IDEA IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY LATEST NSSL SYNTHETIC
IR...SO EXPECT CLEARING TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
WITH LIGHT WINDS DEEPENING TO AROUND 2000 FT AGL BY 25.09Z...THINK
SOME VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE AND WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION IN LATEST
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BOTTOM OUT FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BY 25.12Z...BUT LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING...DEEPENING TO NEARLY 6000
FT AGL. FOG POTENTIAL WILL HINGE ON POSSIBLE HIGH CLOUDS...BUT
OTHERWISE A GOOD CHANCE AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY
FOG.

CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CHANCE
LATE IN THE EVENING MAINLY WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 52 CORRIDOR. RISING
925 TO 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGHS TO REACH
THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

FRIDAY NOW LIKELY TO BE CLOUDY AND WET AS AN EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH UNDERCUTS THE WESTERN CONUS 500 HPA RIDGE AND MOVES INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST. 25.12Z MODEL SUITE PRODUCES A WELL DEFINED
DEFORMATION PRECIPITATION AXIS ALONG ENHANCED 850 TO 700 HPA
FRONTOGENESIS NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ARE SIMILAR...MOVING FROM EAST-CENTRAL NE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IA THROUGH THE DAY...THE ECMWF PAINTS THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL A BIT FARTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO THE GFS/NAM WHICH ARE
HIGHEST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE PAST THREE RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...LENDING HIGHER CONFIDENCE TO ITS NORTHERN
SOLUTION. WILL INCREASE POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY STILL LOOKS VERY WEAK AND WILL CAP
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO 20 PERCENT WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
BEING THE DOMINATE MODE. STILL A BIT EARLY TO GET TOO SPECIFIC
WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS...BUT SOME AREAS COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF AN INCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN...
FRIDAY WILL BE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.

SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER...BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH
DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID 70S. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK
DRY WITH NO MAJOR SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON. BIGGER CONCERN WILL BE
RISING TEMPERATURES AS 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS FOLDS OVER ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 80S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

CLOUDS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF GIVING WAY AND EASING EAST OF KLSE
EARLY THIS EVENING...PER SATELLITE TRENDS AND MESO MODELED RH
FIELDS. HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH WED.

WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS...VALLEY FOG BECOMES A
CONCERN. KLSE T/TD DIFF AT 23Z WAS 17 F...GENERALLY GOOD FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG FORMATION. HOWEVER...A NORTH SFC WIND...EVEN
LIGHT...IS USUALLY A DETERRENT FOR DENSE FOG AT THE AIRPORT.
ALSO....RAP/NAM/HRRR BUFKIT SOUNDINGS KEEP WINDS STIRRED NEAR THE
SFC THROUGH 06Z. MIGHT BE TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE
FOG IN THE VALLEY. SO A FEW THINGS GOING FOR IT...AND A FEW NOT.
BCFG BKN003 LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN SUB 1/2SM FG AT THIS TIME.
WILL LEAVE CURRENT FORECAST AS IT...AND FOLLOW EVENING TRENDS TO SEE
WHAT ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.

THU MORNING SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR FG AT KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1127 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AN UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA TODAY AND SO FAR THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF
THE I-25 CORRIDOR...PALMER DVD AND WESTWARD. THE HRRR SHOWS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLD SHOWERS/TSTMS TO ALSO DEVELOP OR MOVE
OVER THE SERN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. MOST
OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER THE
HRRR AND NAM SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY OVR
THE SW MTNS THRU THE NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOW SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVR THE ERN MTNS.

ON WED THE UPR RIDGE REMAINS OVR THE AREA BUT A DISTURBANCE WL MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM SWRN CO TO NORTH CENTRAL CO DURING THE DAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS ACTIVITY TO
THE CONTDVD. THE MAIN THREAT ALONG THE CONTDVD WL BE HEAVY
RAIN...ESPECIALLY OVR THE BURN SCARS. OVR THE SERN PLAINS...DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S WED
AFTERNOON...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY AND HOT AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

...BEST CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
...REST OF THE PERIOD MAINLY HOT AND DRY FOR THE LOWLANDS...

ONLY REAL CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS WED EVENING...WHEN ONGOING
STORMS OVER THE MTS COULD LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTION LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
ONE MINOR TREND IN MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY
UPPER DISTURBANCE THAT COMES THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
PLAINS...AND THIS MIGHT BRING A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THAT TIME.
THE UPPER TROUGH DOES NOT REALLY CLEAR THE CWA UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.
SO WHILE IT STILL LOOKS TO BE FAIRY WARM THU...THERE SHOULD BE A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS...AND AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THU EVENING IT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON FRI...OR RIGHT AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS.

REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY UNEVENTFUL. A PERSISTENT
RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE DESERT SW...AND THIS WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
CWA IN ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND WITH NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP. MOS
GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED AT KPUB FOR EXAMPLE IS WITHIN A COUPLE
DEGREES FOR THE HIGH TEMPS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOWER
90S DOMINATE THE TEMPS FOR THE PLAINS DURING THIS TIME. THE MONSOON
WILL BE PRESENT BUT DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY ACTIVE. WILL SEE DAILY
CHANCES OF AFTERNOON-EVENING STORMS OVER THE MTN AREAS DURING THIS
PERIOD. STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN HOW A PACNW TROUGH WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT IT WILL
LIFT OFF TO THE E-NE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN PLAINS...SO
THE IMPACT FOR OUR AREA LOOKS MINIMAL. ROSE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPPER WAVE OVER AZ THIS EVENING WILL ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS
COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON WED. EXPECT ISOLATED
TSRA OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT...WITH SCT TO NMRS
STORMS OVER MOST MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS DURING THE DAY
WED. MANY MT PASSES AND HIGHER PEAKS WILL BE OBSCURED FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WED. AT THE TAF SITES...BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA WILL BE AT
KALS...AND WILL KEEP A VCTS MENTION IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FARTHER EAST AT KPUB AND KCOS...CAN`T
RULE OUT A LATE DAY TSRA AT EITHER SITE...THOUGH CHANCES LOOK TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS POINT. &&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...PETERSEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

418 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL AND
DISSIPATE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE IN NORTH OF THE REGION INTO FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE
EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
26/07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE NEAR
MANNING...SOUTH CAROLINA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM
THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WESTERN PEE
DEE...INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THEN TURNING SOUTH THROUGH
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...ONLY INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY TO THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95 IN THE
CONCEPTUAL WARM SECTOR WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY DELINEATING
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S FROM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. ALOFT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS 500 HPA
LOW PRESSURE TREKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

A SLIGHT COOLING OF 500 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE PLACE BY MID
AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER. THIS COUPLED WITH
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG INSTABILITY AND SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE
INDUCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND VIRGINIA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED-SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BECOME
ENHANCED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE BECOMES MAXIMIZED NEAR THE SEA BREEZE/FRONTAL
INTERSECTION. SBCAPE IS FORECAST TO RISE TO 3200-3600 J/KG IN THIS
AREA PER KCHS MODIFIED RAP/NAM12 SOUNDINGS WITH DCAPE REACHING
1200-1500 J/KG. ALTHOUGH MID-LAPSE RATES ARE NOT OVERLY
COLD AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IS WEAK...THERE IS ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
INSTABILITY AND DCAPE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE
TSTMS...ESPECIALLY WHERE UPDRAFTS BECOME ENHANCED BY MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

20-50 PERCENT POPS LOOK FINE FOR AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CENTERED OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AS
MESOSCALE TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK TOO
CAPPED TO SUPPORT MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEHIND THE FRONT AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S AND 700 HPA THETA-E LOWERS.
WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THERE...ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF A
HAMPTON-PEMBROKE-LUDOWICI LINE. HIGHS WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM
ACROSS THE FRONT...PEAKING IN THE LOWER 90 AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
CONVECTION LOOKS DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM SHIFTING
BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE ALONG THE BEACHES AND CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE RE- INTENSIFIES JUST
OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP 20/30 PERCENT POPS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG COULD OOZE OUT OF THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND AFFECT THE INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND MOVE WEST-
SOUTHWEST AS A DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE ALSO STARTS TO BUILD FROM
THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND THE MID ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY THEN SHIFTS OFF SHORE BY FRIDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL START OFF EAST-NORTHEAST THURSDAY...VEERING
TO SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL
THURSDAY...AND HAVE GONE LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION. BY FRIDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES
SLIGHTLY ALONG WITH THE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION. WITH LITTLE/NO UPPER
FORCING...EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIE DOWN IN THE EVENING BOTH
DAYS...BUT LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS CLOSER TO THE
COAST WITH ONSHORE FLOW BRINING IN MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS. HIGHS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS SETS UP A SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH ALSO HELPS
TO ADVECT IN BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. HAVE GONE CHANCE POPS
ENTIRE AREA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS RAISE
POPS FURTHER. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH THE REGION BEING SQUEEZED BETWEEN A DEEP
LAYER ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. THESE
TWO FEATURES HELP TO FOCUS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY. THIS MOISTURE...ALONG WITH SOME FORCING FROM THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED CONVECTION
BY AFTERNOON. KEPT POPS CONSERVATIVE FOR IN THE MID TO HIGH END
CHANCE RANGE.

BY LATER SUNDAY AND BEYOND IS WHEN THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO REALLY
DIVERGE IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN. THE GFS WEAKENS THE UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NORTHWEST AND LEAVES THE AREA LARGELY DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE
UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST LONGER. THESE DIFFERENCES MAY BECOME
VERY IMPORTANT SINCE THEY WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON WHERE ERIKA
/OR THE REMNANTS OF/ TRACK. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKEN THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA AND MOVES IT ACROSS
CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THEN LOSES IT
SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND OFF THE OUR ATLANTIC COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF IS MUCH STRONGER WITH THE SYSTEM AND HAS A MORE
EASTERLY TRACK OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN
STALLING OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR BOTH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONCERNING THE FATE
OF ERIKA AS WELL AS OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER.

FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN...HAVE KEPT
CHANCES POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL.

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR SIGNAL THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT AREAS AROUND KCHS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. TIMING IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-22Z FOR 4SM -TSRA. MAY NEED TO TWEAK
THE TIMES A BIT WITH THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. TSTMS PROBABILITIES ARE
TOO LOW AT KSAV THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A MENTION FOR THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR WILL
DOMINATE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INCREASES AS AN UPPER
TROUGH BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND CHANNELS MOISTURE NORTHWARD. THIS
SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND POTENTIAL FOR
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THERE CONTINUES TO BE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS AS TO THE POTENTIAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF WHAT IS
CURRENTLY ERIKA. FOR NOW EXPECT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY WATCH LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING ERIKA.

.MARINE...
TODAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE COAST. LOCAL SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENTS ARE LIKELY...MAINLY NEAR THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR. WINDS WILL HOLD AROUND 10 KT...LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...MAINLY COMPRISED 10-11
SECOND SWELL FROM THE EAST.

TONIGHT...A BIT OF A NOCTURNAL SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
GEORGIA WATERS AS THE COLD FRONT HOLDS NEARLY STATIONARY. WINDS
ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT WINDS TO PEAK 15-20 KT
GEORGIA WATERS WITH 5-10 KT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS WITH 10-15 KT
BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS. SEAS WILL HOLD 2-3 FT...MAINLY COMPRISED
OF 10-11 SECOND SWELL FROM THE EAST.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE WATERS
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EAST- SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 KTS OR LESS AND
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
FURTHER EAST OF THE AREA AND WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTH...BUT REMAIN 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FEET OR LESS.
THE BIG QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LATER PART OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND INTO MID NEXT WEEK IS THE FATE OF ERIKA.
LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
AND EVENTUAL PATH. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONCERNING ERIKA.

WATERSPOUTS...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE OF
WATERSPOUTS THIS MORNING. THERE ARE HINTS IN THE RAP THAT A CLOUD
LINE OR LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION COULD DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA AND
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AROUND SUNRISE...WHICH COULD
FOCUS THE WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE A TAD TOO
HIGH FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT RISK...BUT THE OVERALL ASSESSMENT POINTS
TO A MODERATE RISK FOR WATERSPOUTS. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT MAY ALSO BE
ISSUED IF THE FORMATION OF THE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATION OCCURS.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING DURING
THE MAJOR HIGH TIDES THURSDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK DUE TO ELEVATED
ASTRONOMICAL FROM THE UPCOMING PERIGEAN TIDES. THE LATEST EXTRA-
TROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE ALREADY SHOWING MARGINAL COASTAL FLOODING
TIDE LEVELS FOR CHARLESTON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND VERY
CLOSE AT FORT PULASKI. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS THAT HELP INCREASE THE ALREADY HIGH TIDES. HARD TO TELL HOW
MUCH INFLUENCE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL HAVE LATER THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

ST/RFM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

325 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DEEP UPPER LOW NORTH OF LAKE ERIE EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY EDGE AWAY FROM THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER, SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES
CONTINUE TO ROTATE SOUTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER LOW ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BRINGING CLOUD COVER MUCH
FURTHER INTO OUR FORECAST AREA THAN WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. THAT
WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY, AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER OVER
CENTRAL IL AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES. RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE AT OR
JUST BELOW 850 MB INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL HIT THE CLOUD COVER A BIT
HEAVIER ACROSS THE EAST TODAY WITH TEMPS CUT BACK A FEW DEGREES AS A
RESULT, MAINLY IN THE MID 70S, WHILE FURTHER WEST, A BIT MORE SUN
SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S.
SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE AGAIN FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST WHERE THERE WILL BE DEEPER MIXING OCCURRING.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, ALBEIT IN A SLIGHT WARMING TREND. FORECAST ISSUE IN THE
LONGER TERM REMAINS THE SYSTEM FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. A
SHORT WAVE DIVES INTO THE MIDWEST RIPPLING THROUGH THE
PREDOMINANTLY NWRLY FLOW. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE
TIMING AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM ITSELF WITH ITS OWN FORWARD
MOTION. WAVE REACHES THE MIDWEST AND SLOWS CONSIDERABLY. EITHER
WAY, SOME CONSENSUS APPEARS AS TO ONSET OF PRECIP IN CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AFTER 00Z SATURDAY BTWN THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM. HOWEVER, AT
THIS POINT, THE PRECIP STARTS TO BECOME LESS IN COVERAGE. EXPECTED
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT PERHAPS WITH THE LOSS OF A DIURNAL
COMPONENT, BUT LESS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, THE SOUNDINGS ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE FOR RAIN, DRYING OUT
CONSIDERABLY WHILE THE MODELS ARE GENERATING QPF. A RATHER DRY
AIRMASS FOR DAYS...THE MODELS SEEM TO BE OVERDOING THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AVAILABLE MOISTURE. OVERBLOWN RH IN THE LOW LEVELS IN THE
NAM IS EXPECTED AND SO FAR, IT IS TRUE TO FORM IN PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE QPF. THE TREND, THOUGH, IS MORE TO A POTENTIAL
SHOWERY SITUATION. HAVE EASED BACK POPS WHERE COLLABORATIVELY
POSSIBLE, AND SWITCHED THE WORDING TO COVERAGE INSTEAD OF
PROBABILITY.

BEYOND THE POPS ON THE WEEKEND, THE FLOW SWITCHES TO A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN. THE WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALLOWS THE HEAT OVER
THE DESERT SW TO ESCAPE OUT FROM UNDER THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND
BRING A WARMING TREND FOR THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

QUIET/VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD
HELPING WINDS TO REMAIN LIGHT. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL
OVERALL, BUT A PERIOD OF BROKEN VFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS KPIA, KBMI, KDEC & KCMI AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DIVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...BAK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

156 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 201 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EITHER KGLD OR KMCK AROUND SUNRISE
AS TEMPERATURES COOL TO THE DEW POINT. HOWEVER ANY FOG THAT
DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT WITH BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS BY
MID MORNING. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH UPPER RIDGE REMAINING
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...024

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH KENTUCKY STRETCHED
BACK INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS PLEASANT AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER SEASONABLY COOL NIGHT WHERE A SMALL RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT HAS SET UP. THE RADIATIONAL COOLING...EXPECTED
TO GET MUCH OF THE AREA DOWN TO NEAR RECORD LOWS THIS NIGHT...HAS
BEEN DISRUPTED BY A PESKY LAYER OF CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET PARKED
OVER MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY. THIS CLOUD PATCH IS SLOWLY ERODING
FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A
BLANKETING EFFECT FOR TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
CWA INTO THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. THIS DISRUPTION MAY ALSO HINDER THE
FORMATION OF FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...AS WELL...THOUGH STILL
EXPECT SOME ALONG THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS...LOCALLY DENSE FOR A
BRIEF TIME. AS IT STANDS...TEMPERATURES VARY FROM THE LOW 60S ON
THE RIDGES TO A FEW POCKETS OF LOWER 50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
BENEATH CLEAR SKIES. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONLY A FEW HINTS OF FOG
STARTING TO FORM IN THE OBS AND WEB CAMS.

THE MODELS ARE IN QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM FOR THE OHIO VALLEY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH TO
THE NORTH. LOW HEIGHTS...WEAK RIPPLES...AND BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BE THE RULE AT THE MID LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY THURSDAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN CLOSE BY TODAY...
THOUGH...WITH SOME OF ITS CORE ENERGY BRUSHING PAST JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEL
AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED A GENERAL BLEND WITH A LEAN TOWARD THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION HRRR AND NAM12 FOR DETAILS.

EAST KENTUCKY WILL ENJOY A CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT TASTE OF
THE BEST FALL WEATHER HAS TO OFFER. PLEASANT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
LEVELS...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID 70S ARE AGAIN ON THE DOCKET FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY.
THE ONLY DRAW BACK MAY BE THE PREVALENCE OF MID RANGE CLOUDS
SLIPPING SOUTH INTO OUR AREA FROM BENEATH THE UPPER LOW. TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL ONE WITH LESS CLOUDS
ANTICIPATED TO SLOW THE TEMPERATURE/S DESCENT. AS SUCH...RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WILL PLAY OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT
ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF RIVER VALLEY FOG TOWARDS DAWN
THURSDAY.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT
ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT FOR RIDGE AND VALLEY TERRAIN EFFECTS.
AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM EITHER ZERO OR IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN LINE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

AT UPPER LEVELS...A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS FLOW...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND
TRAVERSES THE RIDGE TOWARDS THE MID MS VALLEY REGION BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN THE GULF AND MOVES
NWD...GETTING INGESTED INTO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...ULTIMATELY STRENGTHENING THE TROUGH. THERE
ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE MORE AGGRESSIVE OF THE TWO MODELS.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...FRIDAY WILL BE ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL AND
DRY DAY BEFORE MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY RETURNS ON SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN JUST BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY BUT THEN
GRADUALLY WARM AND RETURN BACK TO THE MID 80S BY MONDAY. THERE WILL
BE CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. THOUGH ONE THING TO NOTE
IS THE LACK OF MOISTURE IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. EVEN ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS ARE SATURATED BUT THE LOW
LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR MOST
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
TOWARD DAWN. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...WITH
THE BEST SHOT BEING KSME. FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED A BRIEF PERIOD
OF IFR VIS AND LOW CIGS TOWARD DAWN BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1246 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH LATE TONIGHT...THEN CROSS THE
REGION LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE: ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON LATEST RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY.
USED HRRR POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SEEMED TO BE HANDLING
THINGS PRETTY WELL THIS HOUR. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY
DOWNPOURS IN ANY SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVERNIGHT WITH PWATS RUNNING
1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES. ONLY OTHER CHANGES WERE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO
TEMPS/DEW POINTS.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY EXIT THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL END AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA. FURTHER
WEST...TOWARDS BANGOR AND GREENVILLE....SHOWERS WILL END EARLY THE
EVENING. MARGINALLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION LATER IN THE NIGHT AND PUSH THE STRATUS CLOUDS OUT OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT WILL STILL BE ANOTHER HUMID NIGHT WITH
DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60F MOST OF THE NIGHT AND COASTAL FOG WILL
PROBABLY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER
50S TO NEAR 60F. A POST-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL FINALLY BRING IN SIGNIFICANTLY LESS HUMID AIR FOR
THE FIRST TIME IN NEARLY TWO WEEKS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH WILL
COINCIDE WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SET OFF
SHOWERS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST AMOUNTS OF CAPE BUT FAR
LESS PRECIPITABLE WATER. AS A RESULT...IT IS HARD TO FORESEE MUCH
MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL WITH THESE SHOWERS.. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S NORTH TO MID-UPPER 70S FOR BANGOR AND
DOWN EAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ENSURE THAT THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES ARE TOWARDS THE COAST. THE COOLER AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. LOWS WILL DROP TO THE
UPPER 40S IN THE ALLAGASH WHILE LOW TO MID 50S ARE ANTICIPATED
ELSEWHERE. THE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOW HUMIDITY. AGAIN...THE
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE HIGHER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST FRIDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA PUSHES A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. THIS WILL BRING A PARTLY CLOUDY NIGHT FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON SATURDAY AS
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH BEHIND THE HIGH WHICH WILL BE MOVING OUT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE MOISTURE WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
SATURDAY AND SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DRY WEATHER SHOULD THEN RETURN
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE EAST
ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL RIDGING.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING RANGING FROM VFR TO LIFR. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECT MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION LATER
WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

SHORT TERM: FOG CONTINUES UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING. LOWER PERIOD SE
SWELL NEAR 4 FT IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...DUDA
SHORT TERM...MCW
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...DUDA/MCW
MARINE...DUDA/MCW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

339 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

AFTER A PERIOD OF VERY COOL WX...LOOKS LIKE A RETURN OF MORE
SEASONABLE WX TO END THE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME SHOWERS
LATE THU NGT INTO SAT...PCPN CHCS APPEAR LIMITED BY THE PLACEMENT OF
UPR MI BTWN DISTURBANCES PASSING TO THE N AND S OF THE UPR LKS. A
RETURN OF SUMMER-LIKE WX APPEARS ON TAP NEXT WEEK AS AN UPR RDG IS
FCST TO BUILD OVER THE GREAT LKS DOWNSTREAM OF A DEEPENING TROF
ACROSS THE W.

THU...EXPECT A MOSUNNY AND WARMER DAY ON THU WITH HI PRES/ACYC SW
FLOW/DRY AIRMASS DOMINATING. H85 TEMPS REBOUNDING TO 12-14C BY LATE
IN THE DAY WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S OVER MOST
OF THE CWA AWAY FM LK MI MODERATION.

THU NGT...UPR MI IS FCST TO BE SITUATED BTWN FAST WNW FLOW OVER SRN
CANADA AND A WEAKER SRN STREAM OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. A DISTURBANCE
IN THE NRN STREAM IS FCST TO SLIDE ESEWD THRU ONTARIO DURING THE NGT
WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT APRCHG NW LK SUP LATE. AT THE SAME TIME...A
SHRTWV IN THE SRN BRANCH WL BE DRIFTING SLOWLY ESEWD THRU THE MID/
UPR MS RIVER VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z ECMWF GENERATED SOME SPOTTY
LGT PCPN OVER THE NW HALF OF UPR MI LATE AT NGT WITH THE RETURN OF
SOME HIER H85 THETA E AIR IN THE WLY FLOW TO THE S OF DISTURBANCE
PASSING THRU ONTARIO...AXIS OF WEAK FORCING/LINGERING LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER UPR MI BTWN AREAS OF SHARPER DYNAMIC FORCING/CYC FLOW PASSING
TO THE S AND THE N AS WELL AS NOCTURNAL COOLING FAVOR THE DRIER
MODELS. SO CUT POPS TO NO HIER THAN LO CHC NEAR ISLE ROYALE CLOSER
TO APRCHG COLD FNT.

FRI THRU SAT...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW FAR S COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH EXITING NRN BRANCH SHRTWV WL
REACH/BECOME STNRY AND ALSO ON TRACK OF SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE/NRN
EDGE OF ACCOMPANYING PCPN SHIELD. GIVEN THE BLDG UPR RDG IN THE
PLAINS THAT WL FAVOR A MORE WNW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPR LKS...
SUSPECT THE 00Z ECMWF/18Z GFS SHOWING A FARTHER N PCPN AREA ARE OFF
THE MARK AND THAT THE FARTHER S TRACK OF THE SRN BRANCH DISTURBANCE
IS CORRECT WITH ACCOMPANYING PCPN REMAINING TO THE S OF UPR MI.
SEEMS THE BEST CHC FOR PCPN WL BE IF ANOTHER SHRTWV IN THE NRN
BRANCH FLOW OVER SCENTRAL CANADA DRIFTS CLOSE ENUF TO THE STNRY FNT
ALIGNED W-E SOMEWHERE IN THE UPR LKS TO TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS/PERHAPS
A TS OVER UPR MI. SINCE THE BULK OF THE MODELS SHOW THE SFC FNT
POSITIONED TO THE N OF THE CWA WITH LINGERING AXIS OF LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER UPR MI...TENDED TO GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS. WITH H85 TEMPS
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 14C...EXPECT TEMPS TO AVG A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.

SAT NGT THRU TUE...BLDG UPR RDG DOWNSTREAM OF AMPLIFYING TROF OVER
WRN NAMERICA IS FCST TO DOMINATE THE GREAT LKS...BRINGING A PERIOD
OF DRY AND WARMER WX AS A LLVL ACYC SW FLOW ARND SFC HI PRES
CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PREVAILS. H85 TEMPS FCST TO
REACH 16-20C ON SUN AND THEN AOA 20C ON MON WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE HINTS
A COLD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHRTWV RIDING OVER THE UPR RDG MAY
APRCH OR PASS NEXT TUE AND BRING SOME SHOWERS/TS AS EARLY AS LATE
MON...WL GO NO HIER THAN LO CHC POPS GIVEN THE EXPECTED STRENGTH OF
THE UPR RDG.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

A CONTINUED NW FLOW OF MOIST COOL AIR AROUND LOW PRES NE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL ALLOW MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW
THRU AT LEAST THE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT PATCHY -DZ AT KSAW INTO THE
MORNING HOURS...BUT SHOULDN`T REDUCE VIS BLO VFR. AS HIGH PRES
CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY...MVFR CIGS WILL SCATTER OUT
AT KIWD/KCMX IN THE MORNING WHILE CLEARING WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE
AFTN AT KSAW.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

122 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 411 PM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

502 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF OF THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 415 AM WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWARD DRIFTING COLD
FRONT WHICH APPEARED TO BE LOCATED ACROSS THE CRYSTAL COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT MAY BRIEFLY PUSH BACK INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE SUGGESTING
THAT CURRENT SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE BY 15Z THEN THERE
WILL BE A LULL UNTIL AROUND 18Z WHEN ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH HEATING. MID LEVEL WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KT WHICH COULD LEAD TO BETTER ORGANIZATION
OF DIURNAL CONVECTION, BUT LAPSE RATES WILL BE POOR LIMITING SEVERE
POTENTIAL ALTHOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS DUE TO
HIGH PW VALUES OF 1.5-2" AND THE POSSIBILITY OF TRAINING CELLS.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LIFT AS OUR REGION
WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE JET. USED A BLEND OF THE
MET/ECMWF MOS POPS AS THE GFS POPS LOOKED TOO LOW. IT WILL ONLY
TAKE A LITTLE SUNSHINE TO HELP BOOST TEMPS AND WILL FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 90 INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 80S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 415 AM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO COMPLETELY MOVE
OFF OF THE COAST LATE THEN STALL OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF
HEATING THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND EASTERN NC WILL REMAIN
IN A FAVORABLE QUAD OF THE UPPER JET PRODUCING LIFT. THUS WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS HIGHEST COAST NEAR THE DEPARTING
FRONT. LOWS WILL IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND AND AND MID 70S BEACHES.
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AS THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS BEEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO NC THURSDAY WHILE
DE- AMPLIFYING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS
FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN
STALL OFF THE NC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 00Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL JET CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THURSDAY WITH COASTAL AND OFFSHORE
AREAS OF EASTERN NC POSITIONED IN THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE
REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR COASTAL
SECTIONS.

THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE A ROBUST NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE WEEKEND AND
LIFTS OVER THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE FRIDAY AND RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY, THEN TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH
DEVELOPING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVE BUT IT APPEARS DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN JUST WEST AND NORTH OF EASTERN NC AND
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

EYES WILL BE ON THE TROPICS THIS WEEKEND AS NHC HAS TS ERIKA
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS BUT THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND DAY 3
WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS AND IT IS TOO SOON
TO SPECULATE AT THIS TIME WHAT IMPACTS MAY BE FELT ACROSS THE
REGION NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHERE PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS AND WINDS
HAVE AGAIN DECOUPLED. RADIATIONAL COOLING SET TO TAKE OFF BUT FOR
AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH WET SOILS IN
AREAS THAT EARLIER RECEIVED RAIN THINK FOG POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
GOOD BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INTRODUCE PREVAILING IFR CIGS/VSBYS
7-9Z BASED ON AVIATION MOS AND HRRR AND NARRE AVIATION GUIDANCE.
IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR 12-14Z WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE BASED MOISTURE
MIXES OUT WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
THURSDAY WITH COASTAL TERMINALS HAVING BETTER CHANCES OF BEING
IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF OF
THE CRYSTAL COAST EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD RETREAT BACK TO
THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE
OFFSHORE AND STALL LATER TONIGHT. THROUGH THIS EVENING WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION /10 KT OR LESS/ WITH THE FLOW
BECOMING NORTHEAST TO EAST. AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 2 TO 4
FT RANGE MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD SWELL.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 430 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
THURSDAY GRADUALLY VEERING TO E THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIND DIRECTION
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BUT BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES
WITH WEAK GRADIENTS ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT
THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL
WATERS.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...JME/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

330 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...

IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT TWO
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM WEDNESDAY...

IN THE WAKE OF THE EASTERN US TROUGH LIFTING NEWD INTO EASTERN
CANADA...WEAK TROUGHINESS WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL GULF
NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC STATES...WHICH SHOULD NUDGE THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EVER SO SLIGHTLY SOUTHEASTWARD...REMAINING NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

UNDER INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE...FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY LOOKS MOSTLY DRY ACROSS CENTRAL NC WITH RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING OVER MTNS AND FTHLS AND
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INVOF OF THE LINGERING SFC BOUNDARY. BY
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD RETURN TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WESTERN PORTION S OF THE STATE WHERE THE APPROACH OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES COULD KICK THE LINGERING WEAK TROUGHINESS OVER LOWER MS
VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE AREA. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS 65 TO 70.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
OF HOW MUCH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING EXISTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST...WHICH
WILL GREATLY DETERMINE THE EVOLUTION TRACK OF TC ERICKA.
REGARDLESS...HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD SEE AN
UPTICK IN TEMPS...UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH
AT LEAST WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE MOIST AIRMASS.
STAY TUNED.

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: ALL THE SENSIBLE WEATHER IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL
MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WITH KFAY AND KRWI
BEING THE PRIMARY TERMINALS AFFECTED. AS FAR AS CONVECTION IS
CONCERNED...THERE ARE CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY OF KFAY AND THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BUT WEAKEN OVER TIME. OF SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE
AREAS OF FOG THIS EVENING...PARTICULARLY AT KRWI AND KFAY. TO THIS
POINT...ANY OBSERVATIONS OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE
MVFR RANGE AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY CATEGORY FOR THE
EVENING WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SOME IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE RAIN AT KFAY. LATER IN THE DAY EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION IN THE EAST...WITH KRWI AND KFAY ONCE AGAIN THE MOST
LIKELY AFFECTED HOWEVER IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
HELP SOME ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FURTHER WEST IN THE VICINITY OF
KRDU NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LONG TERM: WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE STALLING OUT OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE...TERMINALS ALONG AND EAST OF ROUTE 1 WILL BE UNDER
CONTINUED THREAT FOR DAILY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY
DURING AFTERNOON PEAK HEATING. TRIAD TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
VFR FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK BUT UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TOWARDS THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE FRONTAL ZONE COULD RETROGRADE A LITTLE AS A WEAK
LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

203 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STALLED FRONT WILL PERSIST IN VICINITY OF THE CAROLINA
COAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM TUESDAY...

IN ANTICIPATION OF MORE CLOUDINESS...HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPS ABOUT TWO
DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NW PIEDMONT. MIN TEMPS
SHOULD VARY FROM THE MID 60S NW TO AROUND 70 SE.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 115 PM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 AM WEDNESDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...VINCENT
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

118 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY BUT LINGER JUST OFFSHORE INTO FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY WEAK GRADIENT CONTINUES ACROSS
EASTERN NC AND THIS HAS LED TO WINDS DECOUPLING ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS MAKES TRYING TO LOCATE THE WEAK FRONT/WIND SHIFT VERY
DIFFICULT LATE TONIGHT. BEST GUESS PLACES THE NEARLY STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS NE SECTIONS OF NC EXTENDING BACK SW ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAIN. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER NEAR THE
BOUNDARY VICINITY OF THE SAND HILLS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING COASTAL DARE AND HYDE COUNTIES. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE LINGERING SFC FRONT
AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AMID CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. PATCHY FOG
LIKELY OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAIN TODAY. MIN
TEMPS FROM UPR 60S INLAND TO LOW-MID 70S COAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...STALLED FRONT AND WEAK SHRT WV ENERGY
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...WITH MODELS INDICATING SCT
SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PSBL MOST OF DAY BUT MAINLY
IN SEA BREEZE ZONE DURING AFTN. MAX TEMPS MID TO UPR 80S.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM TUESDAY...AN UPPER LOW NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
PUSH EAST ACROSS QUEBEC WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO SHIFT EAST INTO NC BY THURSDAY THEN DE-
AMPLIFYING AS IT CROSSES THE CAROLINAS INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS FRIDAY WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER BERMUDA
BUILDING WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. AT THE SURFACE, A
WEAK FRONT ACROSS EASTERN NC WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST AND STALL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

LITTLE CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING BASED ON 12Z GUIDANCE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE AREAS OF EASTERN NC POSITIONED IN THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS STALLED OFFSHORE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUILDING WEST INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE FRIDAY AND
RIDGE SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NC FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THEN
TRANSITIONS OFFSHORE WITH THE PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPING SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT A MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN, MAINLY
ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 115 AM WEDNESDAY...VERY DIFFICULT FORECAST TRYING TO
DETERMINE WHERE PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS AND WINDS
HAVE AGAIN DECOUPLED. RADIATIONAL COOLING SET TO TAKE OFF BUT FOR
AREA OF LOWER CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY
DRAPED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN NC. WITH WET SOILS IN
AREAS THAT EARLIER RECEIVED RAIN THINK FOG POTENTIAL IS FAIRLY
GOOD BUT CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA FOR
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS INHIBITING FOG DEVELOPMENT. WILL
CONTINUE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND INTRODUCE PREVAILING IFR
CIGS/VSBYS 7-9Z BASED ON AVIATION MOS AND HRRR AND NARRE AVIATIONGUIDANCE.
IFR WILL IMPROVE TO VFR 12-14Z WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE BASED MOISTURE
MIXES OUT WITH SUB VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH COASTAL TERMINALS HAVING BETTER
CHANCES OF BEING IMPACTED BY SHRA/TSRA BRINGING REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS.
PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED, MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 115 AM WEDNESDAY...STALLED SFC FRONT INLAND TONIGHT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAK PRES GRADIENT RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
10 KT OR LESS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA THROUGH PERIOD. WW3 AND NWPS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LONG PERIOD SEAS PERSISTING AT 2-3 FT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OFFSHORE
THROUGH FRIDAY, PRODUCING NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY.
E/NE WINDS INCREASE SOME FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING, AROUND 10 TO
15 KT, AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING PREDOMINANTLY
EASTERLY AROUND 10 KT OR LESS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, SHIFTING
SOUTHEASTERLY LATE SUNDAY. SEAS WILL RANGE 1-3 FT THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS FOR THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM
NEAR TERM...JME/BTC
SHORT TERM...JBM
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/BTC/JBM/DAG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

NO CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
FOG IN SOME SPOTS BUT DO NOT THINK IT WILL AFFECT TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME. SOME SMOKE FROM WESTERN FIRES WILL CONTINUE BUT THINK
IT WILL STAY HIGH LEVEL AT THIS POINT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...GODON
LONG TERM...GODON/JK
AVIATION...JR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

239 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE`LL HAVE A PLEASANT START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S/60S
AND VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR HINT AT SOME
WEAK CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN THE DEVELOPING MID-CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY STREAMING INTO CENTRAL OK...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

AN UPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER THIS
WEEK...BRINGING A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS AND SURFACE FRONT INTO
THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF WILL LIMIT MOST OF
THE DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN...SO CHANCES/COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY WILL REMAIN LOW.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND SEASONALLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPS IN STORE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 90 66 92 71 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 89 65 91 67 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 90 62 92 67 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 90 62 91 68 / 0 0 0 20
FYV 86 58 87 62 / 0 10 10 0
BYV 84 58 85 60 / 0 10 10 0
MKO 89 64 90 67 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 89 61 91 66 / 0 10 10 10
F10 89 65 91 68 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 93 64 93 65 / 0 0 10 0

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

235 AM PDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF OF THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL
PRODUCE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS LOW WILL BE A SLOWLY
DEVELOPING MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST THAT WILL NOT EXTEND FAR
INLAND. WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL GIVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER NEAR THE CENTRAL OREGON CASCADE CREST THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH THE MAIN ACTIVITY MOVING OUT INTO CENTRAL OREGON. THE LOW
WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATE IN THE WEEK AND ON THE WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASING GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THE FIRST GOOD WETTING
RAIN IN QUITE SOME TIME.
&&

.SHORT TERM...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER LOW REMAINS OFF THE COAST NEAR 140W...AND A SW FLOW
ALOFT CONTINUES. SURFACE RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST ALSO EXPECTED TO
REMAIN...RESULTING IN A CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. MODELS INDICATE
LITTLE CHANGE TO AIR MASS TODAY WITH H8 TEMPS OVER THE INTERIOR
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE ORDER OF 16 DEG C...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS CLOSE TO NORMAL. A SHORTWAVE IS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR PICTURES
EARLY THIS MORNNING S OF 40N NEAR 135W AND EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS
THE S PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. FORECAST INSTABILITY
OF THE AIR MASS IN THE MODELS HOWEVER IS MARGINAL AS SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AND WITH THE FLOW A LITTLE W OF S...WHATEVER SMALL
CHANCE THERE IS FOR THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO
THE CREST AND POINTS E.

THE SW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES THU AND CHANGES TO THE AIR MASS APPEAR
MINIMAL EXCEPT FOR AN OVERALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY A MENTION FOR SOME DRIZZLE ALONG THE COAST AS
SUGGESTED BY EC QPF FIELDS...BUT THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION
IMPROVES MORE THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AND
THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO INCH CLOSER. INITIAL THREAT FOR RAIN WILL
BE LIMITED PRIMARILY TO COASTAL AREAS THU NIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT
PUSHES IN AND ONSHORE COMPONENT OF LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN SPREADING THE THREAT FOR RAIN INLAND FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LOW AND APPROACHES THE COAST
PUSHING THE WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE FURTHER IN. BEST CHANCES ON FRI
WILL REMAIN ON THE COAST HOWEVER...AND WITH CONFIDENCE IN MODELS
INCREASING WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR COASTAL AREAS FRI. INCREASED
THREAT FOR RAIN AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FRI.

.LONG TERM...NO CHANGES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL DIG SOUTHWARD
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER AND WETTER WEATHER CONTINUING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WHICH
MODELS PREDICT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND OREGON. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SHOWERY
BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY WHICH WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN HALF OF OUR AREA...THOUGH PROBABLY LESS THAN WE SEE ON
SATURDAY. COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE STAY UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH WHEN THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL ARRIVE SO
HAVE LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY...THOUGH AS OF
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE MONDAY COULD BE FAIRLY DRY.
-MCCOY
&&

.AVIATION...WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...EXPECT TONIGHT TO SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY
MVFR STRATUS FORMING ALONG THE S WASHINGTON AND N OREGON COAST AND
PATCHY MVFR VIS ALONG THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN TO THE COAST BY MID MORNING WED. VFR TO REMAIN IN
CONTROL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR THE INTERIOR TAF SITES. A THIN
SMOKE LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CASCADES AND SOUTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM FIRES OVER SW OREGON.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONTINUES WITH A FEW HIGH CLOUDS AND
SOME RESIDUAL SMOKE AT HIGHER LEVELS...PARTICULARLY ON THE EASTERN
APPROACHES THAT MAY RESTRICT SLANTWISE VISIBILITIES BELOW AROUND
9000 FT. BOWEN/PYLE

.MARINE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERMAL TROUGH SITS
OVER SW OREGON AND NW CALIFORNIA...WITH HIGHER PRES REMAINING OVER
THE NE PAC. N TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT TO CONTINUE. SEAS TO
REMAIN AT 4 TO 5 FT.

A PATTERN SHIFT LATER THIS WEEK WILL BRING LOW PRES
INTO THE REGION AND A TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGINNING THU.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A WELL-DEFINED FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS LATE FRI INTO SAT. THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING
GUSTY S WINDS WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KT...WITH A LOW POSSIBILITY FOR
GALES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SEAS INCREASE STARTING LATE
FRI...AND BUILD TO 7 TO 9 FT SATURDAY WITH A RATHER CONFUSED SEA
STATE INCLUDING SOME WIND WAVE/FRESH SWELL COMBINATION ALONG WITH
A FEW SIMILARLY SIZED SWELL COMPONENTS. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN LOOKS LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BOWEN/PYLE

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

[top]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
950 PM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, dry and smoky conditions will continue this week. Strong
inversions will likely lead to poor air quality due to high
concentrations of wildfire smoke in the mornings. There is a
chance of dry thunderstorms Wednesday night. The next significant
round of wind, showers, and cooler weather looks to arrive for the
upcoming weekend.

.DISCUSSION...
Evening update: forecast is generally on track. I increased cloud
cover some and tweaked the Wednesday morning lows, but they are
expected to be similar this morning. The elevated and isolated and
largely thunderstorm threat in the forecast still seems warranted.
There is very little to the shortwave tracking up through OR
into southern WA this hour, but there remains some elevated
instability and the newest HRRR and 00Z Hi-Res NAM do indicated a
few possible elevated showers passing. Still not much but more
than earlier runs. Overall, I`m not expecting much to develop but
there is the possibility.

Additionally, the Red Flag Warning for dry, unstable conditions
was allowed to expire at 9 PM. The next few days will remain hot,
but overall High Level Haines index values appear to be lower (in
the 3 to 4 range). Generally we`d like around 5 or 6, but still we
will have to monitor the situation closely for anything that may
lead to critical fire behavior. /J. Cote`

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: The region will remain in a southwest flow, with a weak
upper impulse pushing this evening into the overnight. Some
elevated instability will bring the off-chance of some
thunderstorms and sprinkles, but the risk of them passing a TAF
site at this time is too small to mention in the TAF forecast.
However between 06 to 12Z there may be some isolated thunder, with
the best chance at this time from MWH to GEG to COE. Smoke will
continue to impact some TAF sites. Given recent patterns, we are
expected VFR/MVFR conditions this evening, with a trend toward
mainly MVFR late overnight into Wednesday morning, before some
improvement in the afternoon again. Winds will be mainly light and
diurnal. /J. Cote`

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 61 90 63 89 62 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Coeur d`Alene 56 91 57 89 57 84 / 10 10 10 10 10 10
Pullman 53 91 55 88 54 85 / 10 0 10 10 20 10
Lewiston 62 95 66 93 64 90 / 10 10 10 10 20 10
Colville 51 91 55 91 55 84 / 10 0 10 10 10 10
Sandpoint 49 88 51 88 51 83 / 10 10 10 10 20 10
Kellogg 55 91 55 88 55 84 / 10 0 10 20 20 10
Moses Lake 55 91 59 91 60 86 / 10 0 20 10 10 10
Wenatchee 62 92 68 92 67 81 / 10 0 10 10 10 20
Omak 57 91 61 91 60 82 / 10 0 10 10 10 20

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WORKS IN TONIGHT...AND WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
FEATURE THROUGH THU. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND NORTHERLY
THROUGH WED...THEN LIGHT EAST/VRB WED NIGHT.

WITH THE HIGH OVERHEAD...AND LIGHT SFC WINDS...VALLEY FOG BECOMES A
CONCERN. KLSE T/TD DIFF AT 03Z WAS 5 F...GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT FOG
FORMATION. SFC WINDS WERE CALM TO LIGHT. A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...EVEN LIGHT...CAN BE PROHIBITIVE TO DENSE FOG AT KLSE.
MORE SIGNIFICANT IS THE DEPTH OF THE LIGHT WIND LAYER. RAP/HRRR/NAM
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS LAYER DOESN/T DEEPEN UNTIL
AFTER 06Z. THIS MIGHT BE TOO SHORT OF A TIME TO ALLOW FOR EXTENSIVE
FOG IN THE VALLEY. BCFG BKN003 STILL LOOKS A BIT MORE LIKELY THAN
SUB 1/2SM FG AT THIS TIME...AND WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THIS WAY.
TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED AND ADJUSTMENTS MADE IF NEEDED.

THU MORNING SHOWS MORE PROMISE FOR FG AT KLSE.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

207 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TODAY...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DECENT FETCH OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTING TOWARDS OUR REGION FROM UTAH AND
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER PLAYER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THIS AFTERNOON...THE RIDGE ALOFT TRANSLATES INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS AS THE NEXT WELL ADVERTISED NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHES WESTERN WYOMING. ALTHOUGH IT WILL TAKE
AWHILE FOR LOW LEVELS TO BECOME MORE MOIST...IT APPEARS THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPARK SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 25...WITH LESSER CHANCES FURTHER EAST.

TONIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES SLOWLY OVERHEAD THUS KEEPING
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ALL NIGHT THOUGH LESS THAN
CHANCES NEAR PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE
AUGUST.

THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...THOUGH THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW AND MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO SPARK SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES DUE TO A PASSING COLD
FRONT AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...RIDGING ALOFT BECOMES MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH LOW AND MID LEVEL DRYING AND THUS LESS AND LESS
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...EXCEPT
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS DUE TO OROGRAPHICS AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

STILL CONCERNS FOR STRONG WINDS SATURDAY OUT IN THE PANHANDLE.
GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST 850MB WINDS OF 40-50KTS OUT OVER THE
PANHANDLE AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
ECMWF SHOWING SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS. DID BEGIN TO INCREASE SPEEDS
OUT THERE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT DO FEEL WE WILL
PROBABLY NEED TO INCREASE MORE.

700MB WINDS INCREASING WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL. GFS SHOWING 700MB WINDS OF 20-25KTS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...INCREASING TO 25-30KTS SUNDAY. COULD BE A FIRE CONCERN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS FORECAST AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FORECAST DOWN
TO 15 PERCENT IN BOTH CONVERSE AND SOUTHWESTERN CARBON COUNTIES.

GUSTY WINDS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH MONTANA. DRIER AIR WITH MORE WIDESPREAD LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. COULD BE
DEALING WITH RED FLAGS EACH DAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

GETTING SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES JUST NORTH OF KRWL LATE THIS
EVENING. LATEST HRRR FORECAST RADAR SHOWS THIS ACTIVITY
DISSIPATING IN A FEW HOURS. MOISTURE FROM THE 4 CORNERS AREA
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD SEE PREDOMINANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT KRWL
AND KLAR AFTER 20Z OR SO...PERSISTING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

MINIMAL CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...ON
SATURDAY...HUMIDITIES AND WINDS WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS OVER
OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES...THUS ELEVATING CONCERNS. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WE MAY HAVE A PROLONGED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD DUE TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOW
HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1050 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 841 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

RAISED POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE US
THIS AFTERNOON. THE RESULTING LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IS CONTRIBUTING
TO GENERALLY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA. RECENT WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE LIFTING
NORTH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE. SOME
OF THIS MOISTURE WAS ALREADY CREEPING INTO THE SNOWY AND SIERRA MADRE
MTNS AT 20Z...SO WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN CONVECTION AS
WE HEAD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED FROM WED AFTN THROUGH THU WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL SUGGEST THE GREATEST PRECIP COVERAGE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE...WITH MAKES SENSE WITH GENERAL
WESTERLY FLOW AND THE TRAJECTORY OF THE BEST H7-H3 MOISTURE. BETTER
CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS SHOULD COME AFTER 15Z THU AS MOST OF
THE MID LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTS SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. ONE MORE WARM DAY EXPECTED FOR WED PRE-FROPA. MUCH COOLER
FOR THU AS MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW H7 TEMPS PLUNGING FROM +16 C AT
00Z THU...TO BETWEEN +8 AND +10 C BY 18Z THU. INDEED AN IMPRESSIVE
TEMPERATURE SWING FOR A PACIFIC FRONT...ESPECIALLY FOR AUGUST. MAY
NEED TO REVISE TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD IN THE FUTURE IF IT LOOKS LIKE
PRECIP WILL BE HEAVIER OR MORE WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS 12Z
AND 00Z RUNS...SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING BACK INTO THE
FRONT RANGE ON FRIDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY EXTEND EASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO INCREASE
OVER WYOMING AND NEBRASKA. IT WILL BE WARM ON FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S...WARMEST OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A BIT MORE MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION AS SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
GRADUALLY ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS. THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHING
NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...IMPROVING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. EXPECT MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO BE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...ALONG AND WEST OF THE I25
CORRIDOR...BUT A FEW THUNDER SHOWERS MAY PUSH FAR ENOUGH EAST TO
IMPACT WESTERN NEBRASKA AS WELL. INCREASED POP BETWEEN 15 TO 25
PERCENT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDER ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND
HIGH PLAINS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AND IN THE
80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT TUE AUG 25 2015

WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PCT
ARE COMMON ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING...BUT LIGHT WINDS TOPPING OUT
AROUND 10 MPH IN THE VEDAUWOO AREA ARE KEEPING CONCERNS MINIMAL.
THERE WILL NOT BE ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK AS A COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS KEEPS HUMIDITIES
ABOVE 20 PCT ALONG WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR WETTING RAINS. A
WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
FOR SAT AND SUN.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MJ
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...CLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

713 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...SOME FAIRLY SIZABLE ADJUSTMENTS TO
HOURLY DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES WERE MADE ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT
FARTHER EAST THAN EXPECTED. THE H3R AND RAP HAVE BACKED OFF
CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER RUNS ON THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
THIS IS A BIT PUZZLING GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ORIENTATION OF THE
COLD FRONT AND ITS LIKELY INTERACTIONS WITH THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. MAINTAINED POPS AS THEY WERE ADVERTISED EARLIER...BUT
IF THIS DRIER TREND CONTINUES...THEN LOWER POPS MAY BE NEEDED IN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES.

26/10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE BETWEEN
MANNING AND GEORGETOWN WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN SOUTH THROUGH THE WESTERN
PEE DEE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. THE BOUNDARY THEN ARCS
BACK TO SAVANNAH...JESUP AND INTO THE EASTERN FLORDIA PANHANDLE.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE TODAY...ONLY INCHING EVER SO SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. THIS WILL KEEP AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF I-95 IN THE
CONCEPTUAL WARM SECTOR WITH THE FRONT ESSENTIALLY DELINEATING
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S FROM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER-MID
60S. ALOFT...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DIG ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON AS 500 HPA
LOW PRESSURE TREKS NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FRONT WILL MOVE LITTLE OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERS TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP MOST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
CONVECTION LOOKS DIE OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION AND THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAXIMUM SHIFTING
BACK INTO THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE ALONG THE BEACHES AND CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE RE- INTENSIFIES JUST
OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. WILL KEEP 20/30 PERCENT POPS
IN PLACE ACROSS THE COASTAL ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME POST-FRONTAL LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY FOG COULD OOZE OUT OF THE PEE DEE AND EASTERN
MIDLANDS AND AFFECT THE INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM WHETHER THIS WILL OCCUR...BUT
THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY.

FOR NOW...GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY IN PATTERN...HAVE KEPT
CHANCES POPS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND
NORMAL.

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. MODELS ARE SHOWING A SIMILAR SIGNAL THAT SCATTERED TSTMS WILL
LIKELY IMPACT AREAS AROUND KCHS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. TIMING IS
STILL A BIT IN QUESTION...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO
INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FROM 19-22Z FOR 4SM -TSRA. TSTMS
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW AT KSAV THIS FAR OUT TO INCLUDE A
MENTION FOR THE 06Z TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VFR WILL
DOMINATE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WITH BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

ST/RFM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

947 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS WITH THE LOWER CLOUD DECK NUDGING SOUTHWARD.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THIS CLOSE TO MOVING INTO
BLOOMINGTON...EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH ROCKFORD AND THEN
EASTWARD. HRRR CLOUD GUIDANCE TRIES TO BREAK THIS UP OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT NOT REALLY SEEING ANY EVIDENCE OF THIS
YET...WITH THE CLOUD DECK RATHER SOLID UP INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RAP 900 MB HUMIDITY PLOT SHOWS THIS BETTER...AND STARTS MORE OF A
BREAKUP AFTER NOON. TIMING OF THE BREAKUP WILL IMPACT FORECAST
HIGHS...WHICH ARE IN THE MID 70S IN THAT AREA.

DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS OF THE CLOUD TRENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE WORDED FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES. A BAND OF LOW VFR WITH
A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WAS LOCATED JUST TO OUR NORTH THIS
MORNING WITH A SOUTHWARD DRIFT IN THE CLOUD BAND. WILL CARRY
CIGS IN THE 3000-4000 FOOT RANGE FROM BMI SOUTH TOWARDS DEC
OVER TO CMI THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE COVERAGE DECREASES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
BE OUT OF THE NORTH AT 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON AT SPI WHERE WE SHOULD SEE SOME BETTER MIXING DUE
TO MORE SUNSHINE COMPARED TO THE TAF SITES FURTHER TO THE EAST.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

626 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1032 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUD DECK HAS BEEN ADVECTING INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT ALSO SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF DIMINISHMENT AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA. EXPECT THIS BASIC TREND TO
CONTINUE...ALONG WITH DEVELOPMENT OF SOME CU/SC JUST SOUTH OF
THE MAIN CLOUD DECK DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER IN THE SKY COVER GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND EXPECTED TRENDS. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURE AND DEWPOINT GRIDS. NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY COVER AND WX GRIDS FOR THE
FOG. DID ALSO TWEAK THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS FOR MOST
OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NOT IMPACT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES...WITH THE BEST SHOT BEING KSME. FOR THIS...HAVE INCLUDED A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR VIS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY COVER AND WX GRIDS FOR THE
FOG. DID ALSO TWEAK THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 800 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

541 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.

LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT BVO/RVS THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS
THEREAFTER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WE`LL HAVE A PLEASANT START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S/60S
AND VERY COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR HINT AT SOME
WEAK CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN THE DEVELOPING MID-CLOUD DECK
CURRENTLY STREAMING INTO CENTRAL OK...BUT INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANY
ACTIVITY WOULD BE JUST WEST OF OUR AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER NICE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS RUNNING A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN YESTERDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL DAYS OF MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS
AND SEASONALLY HOT DAYTIME TEMPS IN STORE.

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...22

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1011 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
IT/S TOUGH TO FIND THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU...BUT ONCE MIXING COMMENCES WE EXPECT IT TO LIE ROUGHLY
ALONG I-10 NORTH OF SAN ANTONIO AND ALONG 1-37 SOUTH OF SAN
ANTONIO. RECENT HRRR RUNS POINT TOWARD CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY AROUND 19-20Z...WITH STORMS THEN MOVING/PROPAGATING
WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO RE-TREND HOURLY
VARIABLES THOUGH 00Z...BUT THE MAIN FORECAST ADJUSTMENT IS TO RE-
ORIENT POPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE BOUNDARY LOCATION.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ARE EXPECTED TODAY. HOWEVER...WILL NOT MENTION AT
THE TAF SITES AS PROBS 20 OR LESS. WILL MONITOR RADAR AND MODEL
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES TO MENTION. VFR FLYING CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PATCHY STRATUS
AT MVFR LEVEL FROM KBAZ TO KHDO TO KCOT TO KBEA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN SHRA/TSRA. E TO SE WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS PREVAIL. EXCEPT...WIND
GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK WESTWARD
TODAY AND WITH IT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE ADVERTISING PRETTY DRY AIR EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF ANY CHANCES FOR PRECIP.
HOWEVER...TO THE WEST...INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FIRE SOME CONVECTION BY THE TIME CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 90S OR BY JUST AFTER NOON. HI RES
MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME VARIABILITY IN THE COVERAGE BUT EVEN THE
MORE ROBUST OUTCOMES ARE SHOWING ONLY ISOLATED CELLS FIRING WEST
OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT PROGRESSES WEST. THERE ARE A LOT OF FACTORS
THAT WILL PROHIBIT SIGNIFICANT GROWTH OF ANY UPDRAFTS TODAY BUT
THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH THE DRY
LOW LEVELS. ALTHOUGH WITH PWAT VALUES EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES AND A VERY DRY COLUMN ABOVE 700 MB...THERE PROBABLY WONT BE
ENOUGH PRECIP GENERATED FOR SIGNIFICANT DOWNBURST WINDS.

THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT DAY BUT WITH SOME WELCOME DRYNESS
AS DEWPOINTS LOOK TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA AND LOWER 60S UP NORTH. SHOULD RESULT IN LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE ROCKIES AND WALTZ
AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE WEEK WHICH WILL
EFFECTIVELY SHIFT THE RIDGE CENTER FARTHER WESTWARD BY THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE
COAST TO CREEP ONSHORE AND UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEEMS THIS OUTCOME IS FAIRLY WELL AGREED UPON BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF. DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD OVER THE
WEEKEND...VERY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH WELL NORTHWEST
INTO OUR CWA. WITH A COUPLE DAYS OF THIS OCCURRING...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND SOUTH TEXAS.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
RAINFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS CLOUD COVER AND MOST
NOTABLY...A DECREASE IN MAX TEMPS. TAKING A LOOK AT THE LONG RANGE
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...MEX HIGHS FOR THE PLATEAU MAY NOT EVEN
REACH 90 BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. WOULDNT THAT JUST BE SWELL?

BEYOND THAT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE OFF
TO THE NORTHEAST ALLOWING RIDGING TO SHIFT EASTWARD AGAIN TOWARDS
CENTRAL TEXAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 97 72 98 73 99 / 10 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 95 69 96 69 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 98 72 99 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 95 72 97 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 101 73 100 / 20 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 96 71 97 71 98 / 10 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 73 98 69 98 / 20 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 96 72 97 71 97 / 10 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 95 69 97 71 97 / 10 - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 75 97 73 97 / 20 - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 74 99 72 98 / 20 - 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

428 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHWEST
OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RIDGE IN OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK WITH CLEARING SKIES AND COOL
CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL YIELD FAIR AND
DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR LATE AUGUST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 418 PM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED
JUST S/SE OF JAMES BAY OVER SW QUEBEC. WEAK SHORT-WAVE IMPULSES
ROTATING AROUND BASE OF THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO FOCUS SOME LAKE
ENHANCED ISOLD-WDLY SCT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE WRN DACKS AND CLOSE
TO THE WRN MOHAWK VALLEY. OTHER ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES
CONTINUE OVER WRN NY...NRN PA...AND SE ONTARIO DUE TO THE
VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE NEXT SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH.

THE WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE NEXT SPOKE OF ENERGY
MOVING ACROSS LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY. THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO SHOULD
KEEP ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS OVER THE WRN-SRN DACKS...THE W-CNTRL
MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE NRN CATSKILLS OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHER CHC POPS
WERE KEPT IN OVER THE WRN DACKS. THE NAM AND HRRR BOTH INDICATED A
FAVORABLE LAKE TRAJECTORY OFF LAKE ONTARIO TONIGHT FOR A BAND OF
LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE SHORT-WAVE AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. H850 TEMPS WILL LOWER TO +6C TO +8C AT H850
OVER THE WARM LAKE TEMPS OF +15C +20C ON THE ERN HALF OF LAKE
ONTARIO. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS WILL STREAM
DOWNSTREAM...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT.
ANY SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT IN INTENSITY. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
BASED ON THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF WILL BE APPROACHING THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY BY DAY BREAK.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TOMORROW...THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHOULD CLEAR MOST IF NOT ALL THE
FORECAST AREA BY NOONTIME. A FEW ISOLD-SCT INSTABILITY SHOWERS
WITH THE RESIDUAL COLD POOL IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW MAY PERSIST
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION INTO THE EARLY PM. SUNSHINE WILL
MIX WITH CLOUDS...AND IT WILL BE BREEZY AND COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
OF +7C TO +11C FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. HIGH TEMPS WILL
RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWER TO M70S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...EXCEPT OVER THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN LITCHFIELD CTY
WHERE SOME U70S ARE POSSIBLE. EXPECT M60S TO L70S OVER THE HILLS
AND MTNS.

THU NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER PA AND NY WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY VALLEY RADIATIONAL FOG
FORMATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. IT SHOULD BE A
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT WITH THE DIMINISHING WINDS. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE M40S TO AROUND 50F NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...AND GENERALLY 50-55F TO THE SOUTH...EXCEPT SOME U40S
OVER THE BERKSHIRES...AND ERN CATSKILLS.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A NICE STRETCH OF LATE AUGUST WX IS
EXPECTED WITH MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY...THE
MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ZONAL ON FRIDAY...WITH THE SFC HIGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND PLEASANT HUMIDITY LEVELS
CONTINUE. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND. FRI NIGHT...THE SFC HIGH RIDGES IN FROM OFF THE SRN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO INCREASE.
ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S WITH
SOME U40S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY WITH H850 TEMPS OF +14C TO +16C WITH S/SW FLOW IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE RIM OF THE OFFSHORE MID AND UPPER RIDGE. MAX
TEMPS SHOULD RISE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. HUMIDITY
LEVELS SLIGHTLY INCREASE WITH DEWPTS IN THE M5OS L60S. A WEAKENING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WITH AN
INCREASE OF SOME CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY. OVERALL...A NICE START TO
THE LAST WEEKEND IN AUGUST. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO U70S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND GENERALLY 80-85F IN THE VALLEYS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ANCHORED OVER THE REGION PROVIDING
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A ISOLATED CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LATEST 26/12Z MODEL AND NUMERICAL DATA SHOW A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST OUT OF CANADA ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR FAR
NORTHERN AREAS. COUPLED WITH DIURNAL HEATING TRENDS AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ADVECTING MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...SOME
PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON IS POSSIBLE.

AS WE GO INTO THE WORK WEEK...OVERALL IT WILL FEATURE DRY CONDITIONS
AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. AS IT SLOWLY MAKES IT
WAY EAST...MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO RIDING OVER THE
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO OUR
FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY BUT THAT IS TOO FAR OUT TO SAY
WITH CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGH TEMPS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGH TERRAIN TO MID AND EVEN SOME UPPER
80S AS WE GO THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH JUST
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AROUND 4-6 KFT. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP THESE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH W-NW
SFC WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

WINDS WILL START TO DECREASE THIS EVENING...BUT WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE AT LIGHT SPEEDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE THERE
MAY BE A DECREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL BE PASSING THROUGH THE REGION FOR
THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL CONTINUE GO WITH AT
LEAST SCT CLOUDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE PASSING CLOUDS...A LINGERING LIGHT BREEZE...AND A DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PREVENT MUCH RADIATIONAL FOG FROM DEVELOPING
TONIGHT. IF WINDS WERE TO DECOUPLE AND CLOUDS WERE LESS THAN
EXPECTED...SOME PATCHES OF FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE
IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT
4-5 KFT WILL CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. W-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
FRIDAY TO SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHEAST WILL BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND COOL CONDITIONS THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
YIELD FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE AUGUST.

THE RH VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. THEY WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 MPH
TONIGHT...AND THEN WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15
MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY
FRIDAY MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW BRINGING LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. BASIN-AVERAGE RAINFALL VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN PRIMARILY DRY WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE HUDSON
RIVER VALLEY.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

418 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO L50S OVER THE MTNS...AND
GENERALLY LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE VALLEYS.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TAF SITES WITH JUST
SCT-BKN STRATOCU AROUND 4-6 KFT. THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSING BY TO THE NORTH
WILL KEEP THESE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT FLYING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VFR WITH W-NW
SFC WINDS AT 5-10 KTS. ANY RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST
OF THE TAF SITES OVER THE ADIRONDACKS.

DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...SCT-BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE AT
4-5 KFT WILL CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS. W-SW WINDS WILL BE AROUND
5-10 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURS NIGHT-SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

THE RH VALUES WILL RISE CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT TOMORROW MORNING WITH
SOME DEW FORMATION. THEY WILL LOWER TO 45 TO 60 PERCENT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT FRIDAY
MORNING.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING
MONDAY.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...LFM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ

348 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY AND
INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A GFS AND WRF-NMMB/NAM BLEND WOULD WORK THE BEST AS
INITIALIZING AT 500MB EASTERN CONUS WHILE THE GFS REMAINS BETTER OUT
WEST. THE SAME COMPROMISE WOULD WORK BEST AS A 925MB INITIALIZATION.
BUT THE GFS ALONE LOOKED BETTER AT 850MB. THE INITIALIZATION DP/DT
CONTINUES TO SHOW MORE RIDGING THAN FORECASTED IN THE WESTERN CONUS,
BUT GENERALLY A FLATTER TROUGH IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND SOUTHEAST
CANADA.

GIVEN THE APPEARANCE OF THE CUMULUS AND CONTINUING CORROBORATION
FROM RECENT HRRR RUNS, WE WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED SPRINKLES OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

THE MAINLY CHANNELIZED VORT MAX IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH THE LAST SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROF TOWARD MORNING. TENDENCY IS FOR
WINDS TO BE LIGHTER THAN MODEL EXPECTATIONS PRECEDING THESE FEATURES
ON ONE HAND. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT DOES RAISE THE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
LINGERING CLOUDINESS, ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. VISIBLE SATELLITE IS
SHOWING PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS UPSTREAM AND SOME OF THE MORE HI RES
MODELS DO KEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GOING INTO THE EVENING. BUT, A
TRAPPING INVERSION IS NOT BEING INDICATED. THUS THE FORECAST PLAN
FOR THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA IS TO AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY FOR
TONIGHT WITH A GENERALLY MORE HIGHER CONFIDENT AND CLEARER FORECAST
SOUTHEAST.

BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE PREDICTED TO BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
DECOUPLING, ESPECIALLY IN MORE SHELTERED AREAS. GIVEN THE AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS, WE WENT WITH THE STAT GUIDANCE TREND OF LOWERING MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES A BIT IN RURAL/OUTLYING AREAS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS
IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. CLOUDS MAY MAKE OUR MINS NORTH TOO
LOW.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
WITH THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING OFFSHORE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
THURSDAY, THE TROF FLATTENING AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, EVEN MORE OF A CHAMBER OF COMMERCE
LATE AUGUST DAY IS PREDICTED FOR OUR CWA.

THE MODELS DO PASS THE 250MB JET OVER DELMARVA. THEY ARE NOT SHOWING
ANY JET LAYER MOISTURE AT THIS TIME. CUMULUS COVERAGE OVERALL SHOULD
BE LESS THAN TODAY. THE THERMAL TROF PASSES THROUGH AND THE
PREDICTED THERMALS SUGGEST ABOUT A 1F DROP OFF IN MAX TEMPS FROM
TODAY. USING PREDICTED 925MB TEMPS, WE WILL FOLLOW A GFS AND NAM MOS
COMPROMISE. A BRIEF NORTHWEST SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BECOME LIGHTER AGAIN. ALONG AND NEAR THE COAST AND BAYS, SOME SEA
BREEZE INDUCED WINDS COULD DEVELOP.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
5-WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A BUILDING SOUTHEAST RIDGE THROUGH A
MAJORITY OF THE LONGTERM PERIOD WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...EXPECTING A DRY FORECAST THESE DAYS WITH A WEAK
FRONT NEARING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SOME GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SHOWER
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A BIT OF A
WEAKNESS IN THE PATTERN ALOFT BUT THINKING THAT CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE OUT OF REACH AND THE BETTER FORCING IS STILL
FARTHER TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...WE STAY DRY. BOTH DAYS WE EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLOSE TO 60F.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER BUT WITH
IT DOESN`T REALLY PACK A PUNCH BUT WE CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER INSTABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE COAST
AND ALLOWS FOR BETTER AIRMASS MODIFICATION SO WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AND INSTABILITY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS APPROACH, IF
NOT EXCEED, 90F.

TUESDAY - WEDNESDAY...NO APPRECIABLE RAIN EXPECTED EITHER DAY WITH
SOUTHEAST RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. CONTINUED HEAT AND HUMIDITY INCREASE
IS EXPECTED BUT IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE CORE OF THE WARMEST 925MB
TEMPERATURES STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION. NONE-THE-
LESS 90F IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGH BASED CUMULUS DECK, BECOMING A CIG
AT TIMES AT THE NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. WEST WINDS WILL BE
CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE NJ AND DE COAST AND NOT MAKE IT INLAND OR TO KACY.

TONIGHT...THE CUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE, ESPECIALLY I95
CORRIDOR SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST AND MORE
SHELTERED AIRPORTS/TERMINALS MAY GO CALM FOR A WHILE. NO VSBY
RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS. LATE TONIGHT ANOTHER UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE MIGHT BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

THURSDAY...A NEAR CARBON COPY OF TODAY. SOME HIGH BASED CUMULUS
CLOUDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN, PROBABLY LESS OVERALL COVERAGE THAN
TODAY. NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE
FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON MIGHT MAKE MORE OF AN INLAND INTRUSION.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR. PATCHY FOG PSBL
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

SUNDAY - MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH LOWER
CONDITIONS.

.MARINE...
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

SEA BREEZE INDUCED CIRCULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING SHOULD BECOME A PREVAILING WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW AGAIN
TONIGHT. MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE THE STRONGEST (POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY OFF THE OCEAN AND ATLANTIC COUNTY COASTS
WITH LESS VARIATION IN SPEEDS WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW OVERNIGHT.

AS THE OVERALL PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AGAIN DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY, A MORE VARIABLE SEA BREEZE INDUCED WIND FLOW SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN ON THE OCEAN WATERS. WE ARE NOT AS CERTAIN ABOUT AN UP
(SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS) THE DELAWARE BAY FLOW OCCURRING. SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS THURSDAY SHOULD REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

SUB-SCA CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD TO AROUND 4 FT
ON THE OCEAN SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WIDELY SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE SUN.

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE WILL CONTINUE THE MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENT ALONG THE NJ BEACHES FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. A MORE
FAVORABLE WIND FLOW FOR STRONGER RIP CURRENTS IS STARTING TO
DEVELOP.

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/HEAVENER/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

205 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...
ONGOING CONVECTION CONTINUES TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC COAST
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR ALSO KEEPS THIS TREND THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THEREFORE KEPT
VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES THROUGH 00Z. DEEP MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH VCSH/VCTS PREVAILING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015/

UPDATE...QUITE MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE ACROSS S
FLORIDA ALREADY THIS MORNING WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWING PWATS
AROUND 2.3" ALONG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES DOWN TO 6C/KM AND
500MB A SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL -7C. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY BEEN
QUITE PLENTIFUL OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE BAND TRACING OUT LOW LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS ACROSS FL STRAITS AND FAR S FLORIDA.

EXPECT AN ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INITIATING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. S-SW FLOW WILL HOLD
BACK EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT AN HOUR OR TWO...BUT NOT
STOP IT ALTOGETHER...AND ENHANCE GULF BREEZE. BEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OFF TO THE
NORTH- NORTHEAST. PROFILE SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AROUND 40MPH...FREQUENTLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS OVERALL STORM MOTION REMAINS
SLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION
INCLUDE A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...A LARGE
AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION TROPICAL STORM
ERIKA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY...THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ADVECT IN DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TODAY
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN INTO THE GULF
WITH SOUTH FLORIDA EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE REGIONAL PWATS AROUND 2.3 INCHES POSSIBLE TODAY WITH MID-
LEVEL TEMPERATURES DECREASING TO A DEGREE OR SO BELOW SEASONAL
NORMS. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE A LOCALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE BY 18Z WITH FORECAST STABILITY INDICES INDICATING GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS
ALTHOUGH THE WEST AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE
WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS WELL IN ISOLATED AREAS. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
STILL REMAINING IN THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL GULF AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUING TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. THURSDAY`S
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN COOLER THAN SEASONAL
NORMS...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE FOCUS AGAIN IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ACTIVE PERIODS FOR THE METRO AREAS. ITS WORTH NOTING THAT COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS PERIOD.

WITH REGARDS TO POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...THE
OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST IS FOR ERIKA TO TRACK
WEST NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS ERIKA REACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL
STORM BY SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AS A
HURRICANE ON SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD
TO THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF ERIKA, SO THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...POTENTIAL IMPACTS MAY
NOT BE EXPECTED UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AS IT TRACKS WEST NORTHWEST THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

MARINE...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS
WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
DUE TO POSSIBLE IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. THE CURRENT
FORECAST HAS THE GREATEST IMPACTS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT NEED TO STRESS AGAIN THE
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 76 90 79 92 / 60 70 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 79 91 / 60 70 40 50
MIAMI 77 90 79 92 / 60 60 30 50
NAPLES 77 89 77 92 / 50 60 40 50

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...10/CD
UPDATE...88/ALM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

230 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO OUR
REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
THE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. A DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER NEAR THE COAST WITH A WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
DENOTED AN EAST/WEST BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
AND IN THE LOWER 70S TO THE SOUTH. PWAT VALUES RANGED FROM JUST
UNDER AN INCH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND CSRA TO 1.6 INCHES OVER THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS. INSTABILITY REMAINED WEAK ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS. WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE KEPT A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE EAST
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT...WITH
MAJORITY OF THE AREA DRY TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
MAIN UPPER TROUGH JUST TO OUR WEST WILL BEGIN GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND LIFTING NORTH...BUT STILL LEAVING BEHIND A WEAK UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST AND CUT OFF LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD TOWARDS
THE SE COAST. SURFACE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST...WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EAST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC....AND SURFACE WAVE
NEAR THE SC COAST SHIFTS SW TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. MODELS PROG
DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS TO REMAIN IN PLACE...WHILE LOW
LEVELS GRADUALLY MOISTEN OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA (FA)
DUE TO AN E TO NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER...RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIR MAY REMAIN ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA AS SURFACE HIGH RIDGES FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS. WEAK TO MODERATE MAINLY
DIURNAL INSTABILITY PROGGED. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS
APPEAR IN ORDER FAVORING THE SOUTHERN FA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SAT/SUN...MODELS INDICATE MAIN BELT OF UPPER WESTERLIES TO REMAIN
WELL TO THE NORTH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE SHIFTING EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHINESS REMAINING TO OUR
WEST....WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND BUILDING TOWARDS THE SE COAST SOME...APPEARS TO DRAW MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF AND ATLANTIC NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. SO...WILL
MAINTAIN TREND TOWARDS INCREASING POPS FOR OUR REGION SAT/SUN.
ACCEPTED HPC GUIDANCE OF CHANCE TO POSSIBLY LOW END LIKELY POPS.

EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...MODELS GENERALLY MAINTAIN WEAK UPPER TROUGH
TO OUR WEST AND SUBTROPICAL UPPER RIDGE TO OUR SE. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA. LATEST OFFICIAL
FORECAST FROM NHC BRINGS IT NW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AS A TROPICAL
STORM SUN/SUN NT THEN STRENGTHEN IT TO A LOW END HURRICANE AND
MOVING IT INTO S FL BY EARLY MONDAY. GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS IT
DRIFTING TO THE NORTH THEREAFTER. FOR NOW...DUE TO UNCERTAINITES
REGARDING IMPACT FOR OUR REGION...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS.

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY WAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES.
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MIDLANDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION NEAR OGB...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST MOISTURE.

AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WENT WITH
PERSISTENCE FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS 06Z-14Z. BOTH THE NAM
AND RAP MODELS ALSO INDICATED LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.
ANY FOG/STRATUS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD LIFT 14Z-16Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY EARLY
MORNING FOG/STRATUS AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS LINCOLN IL

201 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LARGE STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD THAT HAS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE STATE WAS FINALLY STARTING TO SHOW SOME
CONTRACTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT IS FLANKED ON MOST
SIDES BY DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT...SO NET RESULT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A
BIT OF CLOUDS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE CWA. THE 900 MB
PLOT OFF THE RAP MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE CLOUD SHIELD THE
BEST...AND SHOWS SOME CONTRACTION CONTINUING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THE DIURNAL CLOUDS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...SOME RESIDUAL
MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER FROM THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS...AND WILL GO WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA
NEAR DANVILLE AND CHAMPAIGN.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THAT MOST
AREAS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT
CLEAR OUT FAST ENOUGH...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT FOR ILLINOIS OVER
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MODELS DIFFER IN STRENGTH AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY OF SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CURRENTLY OVER FOUR CORNERS
AREA AND EXPECTED TO RIDE OVER RIDGE INTO ILLINOIS THIS WEEKEND.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS WAVE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS MORNING
PUSHING NORTHWARD OVER STRONG ROCKIES RIDGE. MODEL SUITE CONSISTENT
ON BRINGING ENERGY UP OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO MIDWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. UNTIL THEN...DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED AS 850 TEMPS CLIMB 5-10 DEGREES C BETWEEN THIS MORNINGS
RAOB AND FRIDAY EVENING. INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE
MAY INHIBIT WARMING A BIT FOR FRIDAY...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL MAKE
IT INTO THE 80S THROUGHOUT FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WAVE APPROACHING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND IS MOVING INTO A
RELATIVELY DRY BUT MOISTENING AIRMASS. IN ADDITION...DIGGING OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD SLOW PROGRESSION
OF SYSTEMS AND THEREFORE SLOW THE INCOMING WAVE. CHANCE OF STORMS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND PARTICULARLY SATURDAY. MAIN MODEL
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO SHOW UP TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND. LATEST
AVAILABLE ECMWF RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON BEING STRONG ENOUGH
WITH THIS WAVE TO DEVELOP DECENT NVA IN ITS WAKE ON SUNDAY AND
SHUNTING MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA. THIS LEADS TO A RELATIVELY DRY
BUT INCREASINGLY HOT FORECAST AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE...THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS TRENDING WEAKER
WITH THE WAVE AND FORECAST AN EVOLUTION TO JUST A GENERAL WEAKNESS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS EVOLUTION SUGGESTS AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER TEMPERATURES
WITH GENERALLY MORE CLOUD COVER. AM LEANING TOWARD A COMPROMISE
WITH A NOD TOWARD THE GFS WHICH SEEMS TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE CMC
AND GEFS MEAN. A QUICK LOOK AT 12Z ECMWF ALSO SUGGESTS IT MAY BE
SWINGING BACK TOWARD A WEAKER SOLUTION.

ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK SHOULD HAVE
LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL DUE TO LOW SHEAR IN THE RIDGE AND LIMITED
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE WARM 500 MB TEMPS CLIMBING ABOVE -10C. BIGGEST
THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

LARGE MVFR STRATOCUMULUS DECK CONTINUES TO EDGE SOUTHWARD...
HAVING CLIPPED KBMI AND IS COMING FAIRLY CLOSE TO KCMI AT MIDDAY.
LATEST RAP GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW A LOT MORE FURTHER PROGRESS.
HAVE MAINTAINED THE MVFR CONDITIONS AT KBMI AND INCLUDED A TEMPO
MVFR CEILING AT KCMI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. TAF SITES FURTHER
WEST MAINLY BEING AFFECTED BY DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOSER TO 4000
FEET...AND THIS SHOULD FADE WITH SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING MORE TOWARD
THE SOUTHEAST AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PASSES.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...BARKER
AVIATION...GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1220 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

DID SOME ADJUSTMENTS OF THE CLOUD TRENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE WORDED FORECASTS AT THIS
TIME.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GEELHART
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...GEELHART

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

448 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 443 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG AND EAST OF AN IMPERIAL NE TO
HILL CITY KS LINE FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED STORM POPPED UP ALONG RETREATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
KHLC WHERE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STORMS
WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING AFTER SUNSET. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT FOR
HAIL...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO LACK OF UPPER
FORCING.

ALSO INCREASED CLOUDINESS WITH COPIOUS MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM THE WEST.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN
START MOVING INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH SHOULD LINGER OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EXITING THE FA
THURSDAY EVENING. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
EVENING. DYNAMICS SHOULD BE EXITING THE FA AROUND 06Z FRIDAY.
SUBSIDENCE BUILDS INTO THE FA FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH SATURDAY.
POPS WILL BE NIL FOR THOSE PERIODS.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH SUNDAY AND THEN
MOVE EAST OF THE PLAINS MONDAY. THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH MONDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND FORCING.
HOWEVER BY MONDAY EVENING MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

226 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE MID
AND UPPER 80S.

IN THE EXTENDED...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

111 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

150 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

CLOUD DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN MORE EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY AND
GREATER THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. HAVE UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED
PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR MORE CLOUD AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY COVER AND WX GRIDS FOR THE
FOG. DID ALSO TWEAK THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS
LINGER...WITH FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY THE LONGER THE CLOUDS
LAST. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY AT SME AROUND DAWN...BUT WILL KEEP ALL OTHER TAF SITES
AT VFR.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

117 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO TOUCH UP THE SKY COVER AND WX GRIDS FOR THE
FOG. DID ALSO TWEAK THE T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...SBH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

640 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT AND MOVE
OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE: LATEST RADAR REF SHOWS A ROUND OF CNVCTN WEAKENING
AS IT MOVES FROM WRN ME INTO E CNTRL ME. LAPS SHOWS MUCH LESS
AVBL SBCAPE OVR OUR FA COMPARED TO WFO GYX`S AREA...SO THIS TREND
MATCHES THE ENVIRONMENTAL SET-UP. SO THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN ATTM
IS WHETHER ANY ADDITIONAL HVY SHWR/TSTM ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS
CNTRL WASHINGTON COUNTY...WHERE THERE WAS FLASH FLOODING EARLY
THIS MORN...LATER TNGT BEFORE WHAT LEFT OF THE FRONT OVR THE FA
MOVES E OF THE FA. LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL
CNVCTN OVR THIS PTN OF THE FA PRIOR TO 06Z...BUT OTHER SYNOPTIC
SCALE MODELS LIKE THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
MAY MOVE SW TO NE INTO NB PROV JUST E OF WASHINGTON COUNTY...
SO WE WILL WAIT AND SEE.

MEANWHILE...FCST HRLY TEMPS FOR THE OVRNGT WERE UPDATED FROM OBSVD
HI TEMPS EARLIER THIS AFTN THRU OBSVD 6 PM TEMPS TO UNCHGD FCST
LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM THU. LASTLY...HI TRRN RESOLUTION TEMPS WERE
RETURNED FROM THIS AFTN THRU THU.

ORGNL DISC: SFC BNDRY HAS SLOWLY CREEPED INTO EXTRM WRN PART OF
CWA WITH NW WIND AT GREENVILLE AND SE WIND AT MILLINOCKET. THIS
BNDRY IS ALLOWING MOISTURE TO STREAM NWRD ON 30KT H8 LLJ. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS CONTINUE TO RE-DEVELOP AT THIS TIME. EXPECT THESE
WL CONTINUE OFF AND ON INTO THE EVNG HRS. BIGGEST CONCERN CONTS TO
CENTER ARND WASHINGTON CNTY. THIS AREA WAS HIT HARD THIS MRNG WITH
HVY RAIN AND FLOODING AS A RESULT OF LFQ OF H2 JET. MED RANGE
MODELS INDICATING ANOTHER JET DVLPNG LATE TONIGHT. THIS JET IS
BEING PICKED UP ON WV IMAGERY AT THIS TIME ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD.

AS THIS JET INTENSIFIES IT WL LKLY INDUCE SFC LOW DVLPMNT IN THE
GULF OF MAINE. UPR LVL SUPPORT FM JET MAX COUPLED WITH LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE WITH SFC LOW AND PW VALUES OF 1.50+ INCHES WL LKLY LEAD
TO HVY RAINFALL AGAIN OVRNGT. WL HIGHLIGHT THREAT IN HWO AND ALLOW
LATER SHIFTS TO MAKE THE CALL ON A POSSIBLE WATCH. SFC LOPRES WL
RESULT IN SLOW MVMNT TO FRONT AND NOT CLR CWA UNTIL 12Z THUR.

ELEVATED INSTABILITY WL WANE ACRS MOST OF CWA AFT 00Z BUT WL
CONTINUE THRU ABOUT 06Z OVR WASHINGTON CNTY. THUS HV MAINTAINED
ISOLD THUNDER THRU THIS TIME.

DRY DWPTS WL FILTER INTO THE NW IN WAKE OF FROPA AS DWPTS ACRS
CANADA HV DROPPED INTO THE M50S. THUS, EXPECT THAT MINS OVRNGT IN
THE NORTH WOOD CUD DROP INTO THE M/U 50S WITH LOCALES ALONG THE
COAST IN THE L60S.

DRG THE DAY THURSDAY EXPECT UPR LVL TROF TO SWING THRU THE STATE.
THIS WL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDER ACRS THE
CROWN OF MAINE. COLD TEMPS ALOFT WL MV THRU DRG THE AFTN AT TIME OF
MAX DIURNAL HTG.

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH HAS BEEN BRINGING SHOWERS THE LAST
FEW DAYS WILL BE WEAKENING AND LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC
REGION. THE HIGH WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER ON FRIDAY.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTH MAY BRING SOME
CLOUDINESS TO FAR NORTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
BE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SATURDAY SHOULD THEN BE ANOTHER DRY DAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. SOME CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WEAK TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WILL BRING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH WHERE A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING IN. THE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY
MOVE AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SUPPORTED BY STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA BRINGING SUNNY DRY
WEATHER ON MONDAY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUNSHINE AND DRY
WEATHER ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPS A BIT WARMER AS A WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE CIRCULATES IN BEHIND THE HIGH. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST
INTO MID WEEK DOWNEAST WHILE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING INTO
THE NORTH WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY.

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MAJORITY OF TAF VALID TIME IN
MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS. EXPECT HEAVY SHOWERS AT MOST TERMINALS
THOUGH -TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT HUL THROUGH 20Z THIS AFTERNOON. AS
DRIER AIR WORKS IN BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT EXPECTED
CONDITIONS TO INCREASE TO MVFR AFTER DAYBREAK.

SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH CLOUDS AND
SOME SHOWERS. CONDITIONS WILL RETURN TO VFR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN VFR ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN AREAS OF FOG ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM: WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE WATERS
EARLY THIS WEEKEND AND ANOTHER HIGH OVER THE WATERS EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...BLOOMER
LONG TERM...BLOOMER
AVIATION...VJN/BLOOMER
MARINE...VJN/BLOOMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

454 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW THAT THE MID LEVEL LOW
THAT HAS PLAGUED UPPER MI FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL
WEATHER IS NOW CENTERED SE OF JAMES BAY AND IS CONTINUING TO DRIFT
E. UPSTREAM...A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/NRN ONTARIO. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW AND DEPARTING
THERMAL TROF RUNNING FROM ROUGHLY COPPER HARBOR TO MARQUETTE TO IRON
MTN. TO THE W...ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER FROM THE PACIFIC NW FOREST
FIRES IS ONCE AGAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS WITH LEADING
EDGE APPROACHING WRN LAKE SUPERIOR/FAR NW WI.

SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FCST WILL BE QUIET AS SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES TONIGHT AND CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD
ON THU. MAIN FCST ISSUES WILL REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS/TEMPS AND
FROST/FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE CLEARING OUT
FROM NW TO SE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
CERTAINLY CONCERN THAT CLEARING MAY NOT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH SE
BEFORE LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER AND EITHER HOLD CLOUDS IN OVER THE E OR
BRING THEM BACK. FOR NOW...THE PLAN IS FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO
CONTINUE MIXING OUT THE MOISTURE FROM THE W AND AID THE CURRENT SE
CLEARING TREND...HELPING IT PROGRESS FAR ENOUGH THAT CLOUDS WILL
STAY E OF THE FCST AREA TONIGHT. IF CLOUDS DO NOT CLEAR OUT OF THE
ERN FCST AREA BY SUNSET...SKIES PROBABLY WON`T CLEAR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...AS SFC HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TONIGHT...STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A COOL NIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES/CALM
WIND AND DRY AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH. LEANED
FCST SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARD BOTH BIAS CORRECTED CANADIAN MODELS FOR
MINS DUE TO THEIR USUAL BETTER PERFORMANCE IN RADIATIONAL COOLING
SITUATIONS. EXPECT THE NORMAL COLD AREAS IN THE INTERIOR TO FALL
INTO THE UPPER 30S WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS DOWN INTO THE MID
30S. WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FROST IN THE FCST. TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR UNDER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME FOG TO
DEVELOP AS WELL NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS/LAKES/SWAMPY AREAS.

RETURN FLOW WILL BEGIN ON THU AS THE SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE CONTINUES
TO DRIFT E. WITH LINGERING DRY AIR MASS...EXPECT ONLY SOME HIGH
CLOUDS...THOUGH SKY WILL LIKELY BE HAZY WITH ELEVATED SMOKE LAYER
OVER THE UPPER LAKES. WITH MORNING 850MB TEMPS OF 10-12C AND RISING
1-2C DURING THE DAY...EXPECT AFTN MAX TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AWAY FROM ANY LAKE MODERATION.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 453 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE MODELS WERE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PATTERN TRANSITION
FROM ZONAL FLOW TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH
OVER THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL AND EAST.

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS THE SFC RIDGE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST AND 850-700
MB WAA DEVELOPS...EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN MID CLOUDS ACROSS UPPER
MICHIGAN. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 50S INLAND
TO AROUND 60 NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW PREVAILS.

FRI THROUGH SAT...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATH/TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS. THE
GFS...GEM AND ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF HAVE TRENDED FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE SYSTEM WHICH COULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA OR BRING RAIN TO
MOST OF THE AREA. THE FCST REFLECTS THESE TRENDS AND REMAINING
UNCERTAINTY WITH INCREASING POPS THAT REMAIN IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WOULD ARRIVE MAINLY FRI NIGHT AND LINGER
OVER THE ERN CWA AT LEAST THROUGH SAT MORNING. THERE MAY ENOUGH
HEATING/INSTABILITY FRI FOR AT LEAST A MENTION OF TSRA...BUT MOST OF
THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHRTWV WILL NOT HAVE TS...PER GFS/ECMWF
INSTABILITY PROGS.

SAT NIGHT THROUGH WED...THE BUILDING RIDGE WILL BRING WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO REMAIN FAR ENOUGH WEST TO MINIMIZE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES. HIGHS WILL
CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S FROM MON
THROUGH WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR BUILDING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
RESULT IN CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTN. KIWD HAS ALREADY CLEARED
OUT...AND VFR CONDITIONS/LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THERE THRU THIS
FCST PERIOD. AT KCMX/KSAW...MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HRS...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FCST PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL BE CONDUCIVE
FOR SHALLOW RADIATION FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOG COULD AFFECT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS...BUT FOR NOW...INCLUDED MVFR VIS LATE TONIGHT ONLY AT
KSAW WITH CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE AT THAT TERMINAL. ITS QUITE
POSSIBLE THAT IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RESULT IF FOG
DOES DEVELOP AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 15KT ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE HIGH DRIFTS E
ON THU...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15KT THOUGH LOCALLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER
E TO SE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN IN THE VCNTY OF THE HURON
ISLANDS. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER 20KT THRU THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE
MAY BE SOME PERIODS WHERE WIND GUSTS EXCEED 20KT.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

351 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...ROLFSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

343 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH A TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CREST OF THE RIDGE...CAUSING
THE RIDGE TO FLATTEN. ELONGATED SFC HIGH ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISS RVR
VALLEY. A STALLED BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM A LOW OVER MONTANA...THEN
MEANDERS SE INTO CENTRAL KS. ALSO A DISTINCT DRY LINE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND EASTERN COLORADO...WHERE DEW POINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO
THE 30S AND 40S WITH TEMPS NEAR/ABOVE 100.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FIRST
WILL BE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEB...ALONG THE DRY
LINE. A COUPLE CU CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED...HOWEVER DEVELOPMENT IS
MINIMAL AND SHALLOW...SUGGESTING A CAP STILL IN PLACE. THE
NAM/GFS/EC KEEP THIS AREA QUIET...HOWEVER THE NEAR TERM RAP/HRRR IN
AGREEMENT A FEW ISOLD STORMS TO DEVELOP. THE RAP AND HRRR SUGGEST
STORMS SHOULD ALREADY BE DEVELOPED. HAVE A DRY FORECAST AT THE
MOMENT...THINKING THE NEAR TERM MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY OVERDONE WITH
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THAT SAID...INVERTED V SOUNDING WEST OF THE DRY
LINE AND CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY STRONG STORM DEVELOPING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE FOLLOWING A COMBINATION OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE
RIDING THE CREST OF THE RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN S DAKOTA AND INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEB. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIFT FROM A NOCTURNAL LL
JET. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE NOSE NEAR THE NEB/S DAKOTA
BORDER. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DRIFT EAST THEN TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS FOCUSES ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

TOMORROW THE MAIN WAVE WILL CROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
SPEED FROM EARLIER RUNS. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD SUPPORT AND THE
DEEPENING MID LEVEL LOW WILL AID IN LIFT. MORNING CHANCES ARE
MINIMAL AS CAP IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO MONITOR POSSIBLE
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE EXPECT EARLY AFTERNOON
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA WHICH WILL MOVE EAST. GOOD
INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD BE ENOUGH FROM SOME STRONG
STORMS. SHOULD SEE SOME MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHS HOLD IN THE 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

THE FRONT SWINGS THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH COULD STILL BRING THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA FRIDAY MORNING.

AFTER FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTH AND BRING
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN BRINGING MOISTURE TO THE
HIGH PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INCREASING THE LOW LEVEL
THETA-E. IN ADDITION...DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY IN THE THETA-E
RIDGE. ANOTHER BOUNDARY COMING ACROSS THE STATE COULD BRING AT LEAST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN NEBRASKA NEBRASKA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE BEST MOISTURE WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE MOISTURE ON
THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BE LIMITED TO PRECIPITABLE WATER OF AN INCH OR
LESS. THIS WOULD ALSO LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION AND
PRETTY MUCH LIMIT IT TO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
SANDHILLS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING IS THE WIND...WHICH WILL BE BREEZY AT TIMES OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST. WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KVTN. FELT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT TSRA IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...DS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

338 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

500 MB UPPER RIDGE BUILDING FROM NEW MEXICO INTO ERN WYOMING.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVES SEEN MOVING ON TOP OF UPPER RIDGE INTO
WRN/CNTRL ND AND SOUTH DAKOTA TODAY. SOME BANDS OF MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER WITH THESE WAVES AND NOT SURE IF MODELS ARE
HANDLING THESE CLOUDS BANDS ALL THAT GOOD. ONE CLOUD BAND NORTH OF
WILLISTON TO RUGBY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER SOUTH OF
WATFORD CITY TO BISMARCK MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE NRN CLOUD BAND ISNT
HANDLED BY THE MODELS WELL AT ALL AS THEY WANT TO DRY UP THE
CLOUDS TOO MUCH IT SEEMS. OTHER CLOUD BAND HANDLED OK BY HRRR IN
HAVING A FEW SPRINKLES INTO SCNTRL ND EARLY EVENING. LATEST HRRR
HAS A FEW RW-- INTO FAR SE ND AS WELL OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN DRY
FCST AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD RW-- HAS NEEDED. IT WOULD BE VERY
VERY MINOR.

WARMER THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS HOLD UP ENOUGH
FOR MORE MIXING.

MAIN SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST AND TEMPORARILY SQUASH THE RIDGE
AND MOVE THRU SRN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT. NRN EDGE OF ANY PRECIP WILL JUST SKIRT THE FAR SRN FCST
AREA SO CONFINED POPS TO THAT AREA ONLY. A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON
THURSDAY AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

A SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THRU SRN CANADA WILL BRING A RISK OF A
T-STORM TO THE CANADIAN BORDER REGION FRI AFTN-EVE.. BIT BETTER
RISK IN LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA FRI EVE. OTHERWISE GETTING WARMER
STILL AS UPPER AIR RIDGE BEINGS TO BUILD NORTHWARD. UPPER AIR
BUILDS INTO NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AS HIGH TEMPS CLIMB WELL INTO
THE 80S. IT WILL BE DRY.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...A VERY WARM AND FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD IS
EXPECTED. A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT WILL PERSIST OVER
THE N PLAINS WITH THE MEAN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND
PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WITH THE UPPER JET
REMAINING NORTH INTO CANADA...ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW.
SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SLIDE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA EARLY
IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY DRAGGING A SFC TROUGH INTO THE AREA WITH
MAYBE A FEW STORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY OTHER STORMS WILL DEPEND ON
SUBTLE FORCING WITH WEAK UPPER WAVES. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S TO PERHAPS LOW 90S IN
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW UP TO AROUND 10 KTS (POSSIBLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN SPOTS EARLY THURSDAY) AND PATCHES OF MID/HIGH
CLOUDS.|

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...MAKOWSKI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

254 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS
PLATEAU. THE LATEST TEXAS TECH WRF AND HRRR RUNS INDICATE THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLATED AND BARELY BRING MEASURABLE RAIN TO
ONLY A FEW SPOTS. WE HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR DOWNDRAFT WINDS
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. OTHERWISE...WE EXPECT THE
SHOWERS TO QUICKLY DIE BY SUNSET. DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO
THE REGION...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH SUBSIDENCE BELOW THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE...WE EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE BALCONES ESCARPMENT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES A BIT WEST OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...WITH A RESULTING DROP IN HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES. EARLY
MORNINGS WILL BE PLEASANT FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...BUT AFTERNOONS
STILL WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A CUTOFF
LOW/TROUGH EVENTUALLY CARVES OUT OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND COMBINES WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA TO PRODUCE A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. GULF MOISTURE WILL COINCIDE
WITH THE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT...AND HENCE BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE TROUGH
WILL HAVE A SHARP GRADIENT OF COVERAGE...SO AT THIS TIME WE WILL
KEEP POPS LOW. LOWER HEIGHTS AND CLOUDCOVER SHOULD DROP TEMPS TO
NEAR NORMAL...LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AT MANY LOCATIONS...AND LOWS
AROUND 70...BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 73 99 73 99 72 / - - 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 70 98 70 97 69 / - - 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 72 99 72 98 70 / - - 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 71 97 71 / - - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 73 101 72 / - - 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 71 98 72 98 72 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 98 70 98 69 / - - 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 72 98 71 97 70 / - - 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 97 71 97 70 / - - 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 75 98 73 97 72 / - - 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 99 72 99 71 / - - 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...24
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...26
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH