Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/24/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

204 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE AHEAD OF SCHEDULE AND ALREADY REACHING
THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA. THERE IS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE
SURGE BEHIND THIS FRONT...BUT AT THE SAME TIME FRONT WILL BE
RUNNING INTO BETTER MIXING AND DAYTIME HEATING WHICH COULD ALLOW
FRONT TO WASH OUT A BIT. AS A RESULT...CHALLENGING WIND FORECAST
BETWEEN WEST/NORTHWEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH/NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS. HRRR AND RAP MODELS APPEAR OVER MIXED AT THIS
POINT WHICH IS A TYPICAL BIAS...AND BELIEVE BASED ON REAL DATA
UPSTREAM THAT THE FRONT WILL HAVE ENOUGH STRENGTH TO BACK INTO/UP
AGAINST THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPS/DIURNAL TRENDS AND WINDS ON THE PLAINS BASED ON THESE
EXPECTATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT COLD FRONTAL LOCATION IS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING AND EXPECTED INTO FAR NORTHERN COLORADO BORDER AREAS BY
MID MORNING AND THEN INTO DENVER AREA AND POINTS SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. DECENT PRESSURE RISES WITH THIS FRONT AND WIND GUSTS IN
THE 25-40KT RANGE. WINDS WON`T BE QUITE THAT STRONG IN COLORADO
BUT CERTAINLY IN THE 15-30KT RANGE LOOKS REASONABLE AS BEST
PRESSURE RISES WILL SHIFT INTO NEBRASKA. THE BRUNT OF THE
MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH THIS TROF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH AND EAST
OF COLORADO BUT THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE PALMER
DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF CWA. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...DRY
AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL MOVE IN WITH CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES DROP INTO 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.

WITH THE UPPER TROF TRAJECTORY COULD ALSO CONTINUE TO SEE
SMOKE/HAZY CONDITIONS FROM FIRES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
SOME OBSERVATIONS SITES IN WYOMING AND SOUTH DAKOTA AND OBSERVING
SMOKE AND HAZE. CURRENT WEATHER GRIDS ALREADY HAVE THIS ADDRESSED
SO NO CHANGES NEEDED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING ALONG THE U.S./CANADIAN
BORDER SWEEPS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS THE
FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE 4-CORNERS REGION REGAINS SOME
AMPLITUDE. THIS KEEPS THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW...AND WITH THIS FLOW REACHING UP OVER
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE HAZY SKIES AROUND
HERE BUT PERHAPS LESS OPAQUE AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO A LESS SMOKEY S-SWLY COMPONENT IN THE AFTERNOON. SUCH A
FLOW WILL AID IN WARMING THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS PARTICULARLY ON
THE PALMER DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR
INCLUDING THE GREATER DENVER METRO AREA WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THE DATE. FARTHER OUT ON THE PLAINS SEE LITTLE
CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE FROM THE DAY BEFORE WITH HIGHS SEVERAL DEGS
BELOW AVERAGE. FROM AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MODELS SHOW
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND AS BUILDS NORTHWARD SO
WILL MID/HIGH-LEVEL MOISTURE. COULD SEE A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/T-
STORMS PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN ACRS SWRN
SECTIONS OF THE CWA BY EVENING. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

ON MONDAY...FURTHER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND A SLIGHT
EASTWARD SHIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO DIVERT MORE OF THE SMOKE FROM PAC
NORTHWEST WILDFIRES AWAY FROM THE FRONT RANGE. HOWEVER IT MAY BE
LESS APPARENT AS SKIES WILL LIKELY CONTAIN MORE CLOUDS AS
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FLOWS UP FROM THE 4-CORNERS REGION. NOT LOOKING
FOR A BUNCH OF CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN LOW ESPLY EAST OF THE MTNS. WARMING ALOFT SHOULD CAP T-STORM
DEVELOPMENT ON THE PLAINS. THIS SAME WARMING ALOFT WILL BE REFLECTED
AT THE SURFACE BY HIGH TEMPERATURES 4-7 DEG F WARMER THAN THE DAY
BEFORE. THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE WILL OCCUR ACRS THE NERN
CORNER OF THE CWA WHERE CLOUD COVER LESS EVIDENT.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING
TO MIGRATE EAST WHICH OPENS UP THE REGION TO INCREASINGLY MOIST SWLY
FLOW. AREAS EAST OF THE MTNS SHOULD NOT SEE MUCH IMPACT FROM THIS
INFLUX OF MOISTURE OTHER THAN MORE AFTERNOON/EVENING CLOUD COVER AND
PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF LATE DAY T-STORMS MAINLY ALONG
THE FRONT RANGE. MTN AREAS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR T-STORMS
DURING THE PERIOD ESPLY WEDNESDAY WHEN MODELS SHOW A WEAK UPPER AIR
DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER THE AREA. WILL STICK WITH PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE 30-50 PCT RANGE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH 10-20 PCT AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS LITTLE CHANGED FROM MONDAY AND
STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE DATE.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE IN RETROGRADING THE
UPPER RIDGE AS THE UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE SLOWLY DROPS SEWRD OVER
NERN COLORADO DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LEADING THE DISTURBANCE WILL
BE A WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH FIRST USHER DRY AIR DOWN FROM WY ON NWLY
WINDS THEN SHIFTS TO AN UPSLOPE FLOW WHICH MAY STIMULATE T-STORM
FORMATION OVER AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE PASSES BY. BY FRIDAY COULD SEE THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING BACK OVER THE STATE AND AS IT DOES RETURNING THE AREA TO
NWLY FLOW ALOFT. THIS COULD AGAIN BLOW IN MORE SMOKE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW WILDFIRES. OTHERWISE FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIER DAY...
WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS NEAR AVERAGE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE JUST A BIT FARTHER NORTH
THAN ANTICIPATED SO WILL SEE A LOW THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE DENVER
AREA AIRPORTS TIL 23Z...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. OTHERWISE
HAZE/SMOKE IS REDUCING VSBY TO AROUND 5SM AND THIS SHOULD PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THERE WILL STILL BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF VERY WARM AND DRY AIR
LOCATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGH VALLEYS OF NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO TODAY. UPSTREAM RIVERTON AND GRAND JUNCTION SOUNDINGS
SHOWED A DRY AIRMASS AND SUFFICIENT WINDS ALOFT. DAYTIME HEATING
AND MIXING WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS AND RED FLAG CONDITIONS
IN ZONES 211...213...217...AND 218 THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
WHERE FUELS ARE DRIEST. HAVE ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THOSE
LOCATIONS...BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 6 TO 7 PM AT THE
LATEST. COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SHOULD BACK INTO
THE LOWER FOOTHILLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ZONES 215 AND 216
MARGINAL FOR RED FLAG CONDITIONS BUT STILL SOME THREAT THERE BUT
MAINLY OVER EXPOSED HIGHER RIDGES.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-217-
218.

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
FIRE WEATHER...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

913 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

EXPECT A FRONT OR AT LEAST AN INITIAL SURGE TO REACH KDEN BY 18Z
AND KBJC/KAPA BY 19Z-20Z. THIS SHOULD TURN WINDS MORE NORTHERLY
AND INCREASE GUSTS TO 25 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS FOR A
COUPLE HOURS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED TO POINTS JUST SOUTH OF THE DENVER METRO
AREA AND FRONT RANGE AIRPORTS...MAINLY OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE AREA
22Z-02Z. SOME SMOKE/HAZE REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING IN
WYOMING SO COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO 4-5SM
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
PROGRESSION OF SMOKE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 913 AM MDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ211-213-217-
218.

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
FIRE WEATHER...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1108 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015

TRAILING SOUTHERN END OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS WY AND NE CO HAS TRIGGERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SFC
TROF AXIS ACROSS EASTERN CO. MEANWHILE...REMNANT MOISTURE CAUGHT
WITHIN THE FLAT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST CO HAS TRIGGERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN SAN JUANS. THESE TWO AREAS WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEAST PLAINS...NAMELY KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.
DEW POINTS EAST OF THE SFC TROF AXIS WILL REMAIN IN THE
50S...YIELDING 2500+ J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEARS OF 30-35 KTS. THIS
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HRRR PUTS THE GREATEST THREAT
ACROSS EASTERN KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO KS BY 00Z. FOR THE SOUTHWEST MTS...MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...THOUGH STORM MOTIONS TO THE EAST AT
15-20 KTS SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING ON THE
WEST FORK BURN SCAR SOME. THIS AREA WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THOUGH.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD STAY ON THE MILD SIDE...PARTICULARLY
FOR THE SE PLAINS WHERE DOWNSLOPE WESTERLY WINDS INTO THE SFC TROF
WILL CONTINUE. MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE OUT WEST A TAD WHICH SHOULD
KEEP MINIMUMS UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVER LAST NIGHTS VALUES AS
WELL.

UPPER TROF WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND ACROSS THE NRN U.S. ROCKIES
ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS LATE SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO WARM QUICKLY. DEW POINTS WILL
BE THE LIMITING FACTOR...THOUGH THEY DO START TO REBOUND FROM THE
30S INTO THE 40S ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SE PLAINS LATE
SAT AS THE FRONT DROPS IN. CAPE VALUES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY
LOWER...PERHAPS UP TO 1000 J/KG BUT MOST LIKELY BELOW THIS VALUE.
SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BUT COULD SEE SOME
ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD BE MORE OF A CONCERN FOR BURN SCARS IN EL
PASO COUNTY. FOR NOW...THREAT DOESN`T LOOK ALL THAT HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015

...COOLER SUNDAY WITH A SLOW RETURN OF THE MONSOON INTO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MODERATE TO STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST
LOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT MODERATES THROUGH THE DAY
ON SUNDAY...AS A PASSING NORTHERN TIER UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MODELS REMAIN
SIMILAR WITH BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. COLD FRONT
WILL ALSO BE MARKED WITH GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH
IN ITS WAKE. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE TRICKY SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECOUPLING BEHIND SAID
FRONT. MODELS INDICATING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN AVAILABLE MOISTURE ON
SUNDAY...SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MTS WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS EXPECTED TO BE CAPPED. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY TO BE 5-15F COOLER THAN SATURDAY...MOST NOTABLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON. WARMING ALOFT NOTED ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

MONDAY-FRIDAY...A RETURN TO A MORE MONSOONAL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE IN
THE OFFING AS THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SOME DIFFERENCES NOTED IN LONGER RANGE MODELS WITH THE
LATEST GFS BRINGING A DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
SUPPORTING MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...WHERE AS THE
ECMWF IS SLOWER AND FURTHER NORTH WITH THE DISTURBANCE. AT ANY
RATE...SHOULD SEE A SLOW INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN SLOWLY INCREASING AND SPREADING EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
RETURN TO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH VFR EXPECTED ACROSS FLIGHT AREA THROUGH
18Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS. FROM 21Z TO 03Z...A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH SOUTH FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NEW MEXICO TRIGGERING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER 03Z...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST
THROUGH THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGH
VALLEYS...CONTINUING TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY VFR EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA BEHIND
FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...LOCAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE COULD BE SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR STRATUS
BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS LATE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING.

FOR KCOS...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL 21Z...THEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING WITH LOCAL MVFR/IFR FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR
KPUB...GENERALLY VFR UNTIL 23Z...THEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE. FOR KALS...POSSIBLE VCTS
BEGINNING AFTER 21Z...WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE THERE 03Z-06Z SATURDAY
EVENING.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...LW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

318 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MON NIGHT)...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH EXTENDING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND OFF THE SE CONUS COAST. THIS
PATTERN WILL KEEP A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE WIND PROFILE,
BECOMING SOMEWHAT STRONGER INTO SUNDAY, AS A WEAK SHRTWV DIVES
SOUTH THROUGH OUR ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...H5 TEMPS HAVE WARMED 1.5C COMPARED
TO YESTERDAY`S 12Z RAOB. STORM MOTION CONTINUES TO BE SLOW FROM
THE NNE TO NE. THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW SHWS OR STORMS TO FORM IN THE
WESTERN SUBURBS, BUT THE FOCUS SHOULD AGAIN BE THE INTERIOR AND
THEN WEST COAST LATE DAY. PERHAPS A STRONGER WIND GUST BUT
SOUNDING PARAMETERS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR STRONG STORMS TODAY.
ACTIVITY WANES AS USUAL THIS EVENING, BUT HRRR SHOWING SOME
DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS THE WEAK DISTURBANCES DIVES
SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS COULD PUT A FEW SHWS OR STORMS ALONG THE
MIAMI-DADE/BROWARD COAST INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

SUNDAY...PERHAPS MORE OF A FOCUS ON THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND NOT AS
MUCH COVERAGE ON THE WEST COAST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE
STRONGER NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE STORM MOTION, PERHAPS ENOUGH
TO PREVENT THE DURATION AND STRENGTH OF THE GULF BREEZE. BETTER
COVERAGE OF MORNING SHOWERS OR STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH
THE SRTWV OFFSHORE.

MONDAY...H5 CLOSED HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
RETROGRADES TO TEXAS AND THEN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. SURFACE
TROUGH BEGINS BUILDING SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS BEGINS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
AGAIN, WHICH ADDS MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE SURFACE FLOW. OP
GFS POPS LOOK SUSPICIOUSLY LOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHICH IS
AFFECTING THE BLENDS, SO WILL ADJUST UPWARD. HOWEVER PWATS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP THIS DAY. H5 TEMPS AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES STILL
UNIMPRESSIVE.

.LONG TERM (TUES-SAT)...

MID AND UPPER TROUGH TAKES OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER NE FL OR SE GA
WED AND THURS. IN RESPONSE, H5 TEMPS WILL COOL AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES
WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SO STORMS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WHAT
WE`VE EXPERIENCED THIS PAST WEEK. HOWEVER, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL HOLD ON ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS FOR A
WHILE, SUCH THAT SURFACE FLOW DOES NOT VEER TO THE SW UNTIL LATE
WEEK, AND THEN PERHAPS ONLY BRIEFLY.

NHC CONTINUES TO WEAKEN HURRICANE DANNY IN THEIR CURRENT FORECAST
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, WE STILL NEED TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR DANNY`S PROGRESS AND LATEST FORECASTS.

.AVIATION...

WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, CONVECTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME
GETTING GOING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR STILL SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BUT, HAS BEEN OVERDOING
IT SO FAR. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MOST TAFS, BUT AND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE INTERIOR. SO, MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AS WELL AS SKIES
CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING.

.MARINE...

A NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL BE LESS
THAN 4 FT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 92 78 92 / 40 30 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 80 91 / 50 40 10 20
MIAMI 79 93 79 91 / 40 50 20 20
NAPLES 78 93 78 92 / 40 40 20 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

157 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY, CONVECTION IS HAVING A HARD TIME
GETTING GOING THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR STILL SHOWING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. BUT, HAS BEEN OVERDOING
IT SO FAR. HAVE KEPT VCTS IN MOST TAFS, BUT AND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY BE IN THE INTERIOR. SO, MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT, AS WELL AS SKIES
CLEARING LATER THIS EVENING.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO
BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS CURRENT SHOWING ON RADAR. THE HRRR IS
STILL SHOWING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES SHOW WARM TEMPERATURE OF -4.9C AT 500MB.
ALSO, THE FREEZING LEVEL IS OVER 16000FT. THE NCAPE IS .14,
INDICATING STORMS LIFE MAY BE A COMBINATION OF SOME PULSE TYPE
STORMS, AND A FEW CELLS THAT HAVE A SOMEWHAT LONGER LIFE SPAN. THE
PWATS ARE JUST OVER 2 INCHES, WHICH MEANS, TYPICAL HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER, THE STORM MOTION WILL FAIRLY SLOW, BEING LESS THAN 10KTS.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR, SO ANY
URBAN FLOODING, EVEN MINOR, LOOKS TO BE AT A VERY LOW RISK. BUT,
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER EAST, IT COULD LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LOOKING AT TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM POSSIBLE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE, TO THE NORTHWEST, WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE NORTH
TO NORTHEAST TODAY. THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP IN THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
MOST OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE WEST OF THE TAF SITES, ALTHOUGH THERE
IS STILL A CHANCE OVER THE AIRPORTS,, SO HAVE A VCTS IN THE TAFS
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

DISCUSSION...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA WILL
DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. ISOLATED MORNING
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO. THE MAIN TSTORM
IMPACTS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WINDS THIS MORNING ARE OFFSHORE OUT OF THE NW AND LIGHT ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AND NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS CUMULUS
DEVELOPS THIS MORNING...THIS OFFSHORE WIND FLOW CONVERGING ONTO
THE SYNOPTIC ENE WIND FLOW...COULD RESULT IN A FEW WATERSPOUTS
FORMING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS MORNING.

INTERESTINGLY...NRL/NAVY AEROSOL MODEL SHOWS THAT SKIES COULD
BECOME SOMEWHAT HAZY ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BUT NOT FROM SAHARAN DUST, RATHER SULFATE/POLLUTANTS FROM
THE MAINLAND/DEEP SOUTH SPREADING SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA.

THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL BE REPLACED BY A TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A MORE SW STEERING WIND ALBEIT RATHER LIGHT. FOLLOWED A CLIMO
PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY WITH FOCUS OVER THE
INTERIOR EACH DAY. GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED LATE NEXT WEEK WHILE
ECMWF NUDGES IN A RIDGE...SO FLOW PATTERN IS MORE UNCERTAIN THEN.

HURRICANE DANNY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT HAS DRY
AIR, WIND SHEAR, AND POSSIBLY LAND INTERACTION AHEAD OF IT. GLOBAL
MODELS DEGENERATE DANNY INTO AN OPEN WAVE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR DANNY`S PROGRESS, BUT FOR NOW A CLIMO FORECAST NEXT WEEK
IS LOOKING PRUDENT. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
A NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL BE
LESS THAN 4 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 80 92 78 91 / 20 30 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 91 80 90 / 20 40 20 20
MIAMI 80 93 79 92 / 20 50 30 30
NAPLES 79 92 77 91 / 40 30 20 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...13/SI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS UPDATE. TWEAKED POPS FOR THIS MORNING TO
BETTER REFLECT WHAT IS CURRENT SHOWING ON RADAR. THE HRRR IS
STILL SHOWING SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES SHOW WARM TEMPERATURE OF -4.9C AT 500MB.
ALSO, THE FREEZING LEVEL IS OVER 16000FT. THE NCAPE IS .14,
INDICATING STORMS LIFE MAY BE A COMBINATION OF SOME PULSE TYPE
STORMS, AND A FEW CELLS THAT HAVE A SOMEWHAT LONGER LIFE SPAN. THE
PWATS ARE JUST OVER 2 INCHES, WHICH MEANS, TYPICAL HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER, THE STORM MOTION WILL FAIRLY SLOW, BEING LESS THAN 10KTS.
HOWEVER, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE IN THE INTERIOR, SO ANY
URBAN FLOODING, EVEN MINOR, LOOKS TO BE AT A VERY LOW RISK. BUT,
IF STORMS DO DEVELOP A LITTLE FURTHER EAST, IT COULD LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. OTHERWISE,
LOOKING AT TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS, WITH AN ISOLATED
STRONG STORM POSSIBLE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

MARINE...
A NORTHEASTERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY...BUT STILL BE
LESS THAN 4 FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 93 80 92 78 / 20 20 30 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 91 80 91 80 / 20 20 40 20
MIAMI 93 80 93 79 / 20 20 50 30
NAPLES 91 79 92 77 / 40 40 30 20

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

403 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
LIKELY STALL OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD SAVANNAH-BEAUFORT BY EARLY
THIS EVENING AND OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE THE SEA BREEZE HAS
PUSHED PART-WAY INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND FARTHER INTO SOUTHEAST SC.
THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHERN SC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY EARLIER
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL
DRIVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY INTERACTING
WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. THE HRRR HAS BEEN DOING
QUITE WELL THUS FAR TODAY AND THE GOING FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH FROM EARLIER PROGS. THE INCOMING CONVECTION WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST DOWN THE SEA BREEZE THROUGH 7
OR 8 PM. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF WALTERBORO DOWN TOWARD
BEAUFORT AND SAVANNAH. MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE WITH MORE ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL STORMS. ALSO LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN PWATS ABOVE 2.1" AND SOME MERGING CELLS.

ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF EARLY TO MID EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. WEAK NORTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS...DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ABOVE THE
SURFACE AND WET SOILS COULD SUPPORT SOME FOG AWAY FROM THE COAST.
WE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EARLY SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE LATER IN THE DAY AND
REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST...EVENTUALLY STALLING INLAND. ALOFT...GENERAL
TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST AND WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE MUCH OF THE
TIME RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE AT LEAST NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
/ABOUT 30 PERCENT/.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO START THE DAY WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF CHARLESTON WHICH WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE INLAND TROUGH AND THIS IS WHERE WE HAVE THE HIGHEST
/40 PERCENT/ RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH
HEAT INDICES MAINLY 95-100 OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND CLOSER TO 105
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN CHANCES WILL WIND DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SHIFT OFFSHORE ALONG WITH THE SHORTWAVE. LOWS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OFFSHORE AND WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWATS RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE A BIT LOWER AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE SEA
BREEZE AND INLAND TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...LIKELY NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING...THEN SHIFTING
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 DEGREES MOST INLAND AREAS AND CLOSER TO
105 DEGREES NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL DIMINISH IN THE EARLY
EVENING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH THE WEAK COLD
FRONT OVER CENTRAL SC/GA WILL BE PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST LATE. LOWS
WILL BE WARM IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TUESDAY...STRONGER UPPER TROUGHING RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT OVER INLAND AREAS SHOULD STALL DUE TO DIURNAL
HEATING...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD
LIMIT HIGHS A BIT...AROUND 90 NORTH WITH MID 90S OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HEAT INDICES WILL AGAIN BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100
DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS ALL SHOW THAT AT LEAST A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD. THE GFS SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST/MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...EVEN WITH THE STRONGER GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE UPPER TROUGH...IT STILL APPEARS THAT A WEAK COLD
FRONT STALLS NEAR OR JUST WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND
THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT SOME DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MAY
WORK INTO AT LEAST THE WESTERN ZONES MID TO LATE WEEK. SURFACE/LOW
LEVEL WINDS FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALLOWING AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP EACH
DAY...HELPING TO SPARK CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT LOW END CHANCE POPS
MUCH OF THE PERIOD FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION. EVEN WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH...GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DONE AT KCHS BUT THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING THROUGH THE KSAV TERMINAL
BETWEEN 21-00Z. AT THIS POINT WE MAINTAINED VICINITY TSRA BUT MAY
EVENTUALLY NEED TO AMEND TO INCLUDE PREVAILING TSRA. CONVECTION
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. THEN THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. WE
MAINTAINED 6SM AT BOTH SITES SINCE WE THINK THE BEST FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER...SINCE BOTH TERMINALS
WILL LIKELY HAVE WET SOIL...FOG MAY VERY WELL SPREAD FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AND DROP VSBYS AT ONE OR BOTH TERMINALS INTO MVFR OR
LOWER. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REASSESS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR. MAINLY AFTERNOON SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD POSSIBLY LEADING
TO BRIEF PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT BOTH TERMINALS. LOWEST
CHANCES PROBABLY ON MONDAY.

.MARINE...
WITH WEAK COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA...WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST LINE WHERE A 10-12 KT SEA BREEZE WILL
PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL STALL INLAND. WINDS WILL PICK UP FROM THE SOUTH TOWARD MID WEEK
BUT SHOULD MOSTLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 4 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ENHANCED RISK
OF WATERSPOUTS EACH MORNING THROUGH MONDAY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA

135 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1045 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015/
SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED FOR NOW. WITH THE MOIST AIR MASS AND
LINGERING MARGINAL INSTABILITY...HAVE EXTENDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

PREVIOUS...
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS CENTRAL GA THIS AFTERNOON. THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO OOZE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. IN THE
MID LEVELS...WV AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAIRLY DECENT SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN
CENTRAL/EASTERN AL. THE SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD...SPREADING
CONVECTION INTO NORTH CENTRAL GA AND WILL ALSO HELP PUSH THE OLD
FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH.

SURFACE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT BUT MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN WEAK. WITH HIGH PWATS...MAIN HAZARDS FROM
STORMS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PLUS FREQUENT LIGHTNING. A FEW
STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS.

THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWFA
TONIGHT. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD
MOSTLY DIMINISH.

MODELS ARE PROGGING ANOTHER GOOD SHORTWAVE TO MOVE EAST IN THE FLOW
TOMORROW. THE DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD BOUNDARY AND
PRODUCE SCATTERED/ISOLD SHRA/TSRA AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST START OFF WITH WEAKENING BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL GA SUNDAY MOVING SOUTH. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO N GA MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE IS NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ACT AS A CATALYST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT IT WILL ALSO USHER
IN A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED
TO STAY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY TO A MINIMUM. ALL IN ALL IT LOOKS LIKE WE MAY
BE IN THE BEGINNING STAGES OF TRANSITIONING TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN...WITH FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE STATE GIVING THE CWA
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR A FEW DAYS AND NOT STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL
OR SOUTH GA. TEMPS REMAIN IN THE MID 80S TO MID 90S THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
PATCHY FOG AND PATCHES OF LOW IFR/MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP EARLY THIS MORNING BY 09Z...BUT THINKING THE GREATEST THREAT
OF THIS WILL BE SOUTH OF ATL. EXPECT SOME BKN MID LEVEL CIGS BY 14-
15Z WITH INITIAL DAYTIME HEATING. THESE CIGS THEN SCT BY 18Z SAT.
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE STATE LATE SAT...
WARRANTING A PROB30 -TSRA 21Z SAT THRU 01Z SUN. LIGHT NNE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BACK MORE NNW BY 15-17Z SAT... AND HOLD NNW THRU SAT
EVENING. WINDS VEER MORE NNE BY 05-06Z SUN. SPEEDS 7KTS OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 71 89 72 90 / 30 30 20 40
ATLANTA 73 89 73 89 / 20 30 20 40
BLAIRSVILLE 64 83 66 84 / 30 30 20 50
CARTERSVILLE 69 90 69 90 / 20 30 20 40
COLUMBUS 75 92 75 92 / 20 30 20 30
GAINESVILLE 71 86 71 87 / 30 30 20 50
MACON 73 93 74 92 / 30 30 20 40
ROME 69 89 70 90 / 20 20 20 30
PEACHTREE CITY 71 91 72 90 / 20 30 20 40
VIDALIA 75 93 74 92 / 30 30 20 50

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

100 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

WILL NEED TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR SW COUNTIES FROM SPRINGFIELD
LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED CLOUD COVER
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY SW OF I-74. SHOWERS WERE AS FAR NE
AS SCOTT AND MORGAN COUNTIES AT 1040 AM WITH THUNDERSTORMS AROUND
ST LOUIS. THIS CONVECTION WAS DRIFTING NE AND WEAKENING AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS OUR SW THIRD
OF CWA. MOST OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE BY MID AFTERNOON
WITH CLOUDS BREAK UP DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

MOST OF OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH
HAS SHIFTED INTO SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WAS TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI WITH SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TRACKS EAST. HOWEVER...BOTH THE RAP-13 AND HRRR MODELS HAVE
OVERDONE THE PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHWEST MISSOURI EARLY THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO WHAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING NOW.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER OVER OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE TODAY WITH SOME
850 MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SEEN ON THE MODELS THIS MORNING OVER
PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY LATE
THIS MORNING...TOWARDS 18Z. HAVE ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST IL FOR THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
JUST AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING UPPER WAVE. FURTHER EAST AND NORTH...
LESS CLOUD COVER SHOULD ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S BASED OFF THE RAP SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

RAIN CHANCES INCREASING OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA. PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THROUGH MIDDAY. WITH A LACK OF DIURNAL
HEATING IN THE AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, HAVE PULLED THE
MAX TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES. SOUTHEAST MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT
WARMER FOR SUNDAYS HIGHS AND ILX WILL LIKELY HAVE QUITE A GRADIENT
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE GENERAL EARLINESS OF THE SYSTEM, LITTLE TO
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK IN AT THE SURFACE. IN THE COOLER AIRMASS, THE TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT TRENDING WARMER.
THE WARM TREND WILL BE ENHANCED EVEN FURTHER AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AXIS SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE SFC WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. AT THIS POINT, SOLUTIONS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT IN THE MODELS AND THE SUPERBLEND IS AN AMALGAM OF BOTH
THE WETTER SOLUTION AND THE MORE SPARSE WITH THE QPF.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

SPI JUST HAD SPRINKLES PAST HOUR AS MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PASSING SOUTH OF SPI/DEC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
IS PROJECTED TO WEAKEN ON EASTWARD TRACK. CEILINGS COULD LOWER TO
3-5K FT AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY AT SPI AND DEC WITH
BROKEN VEIL OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS. A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN DAKOTAS
INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO TRACK EAST ACROSS CENTRAL IL DURING
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TONIGHT INTO MID MORNING SUNDAY WITH BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS AT PIA FROM 09-12Z. SSE WINDS AROUND 10
KTS WITH GUSTS 14-18 KTS THIS AFTERNOON TO LIGHTEN UP THIS EVENING
AFTER SUNSET AND THEN TURN WNW 10-15 KTS BEHIND COLD FRONT BETWEEN
14-17Z SUNDAY MORNING.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

TWO PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. THE FIRST BEING HOW FAR
EAST THE CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI GOES THIS MORNING AND
WHETHER THE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OUT IN
WESTERN IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAKES IT INTO OUR WESTERN TAF
SITES BY MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SOUNDING DATA DOES SUGGEST SOME LOWER VFR
CIGS (4000-6000 FEET) WILL TRACK EAST INTO SPI AND POSSIBLY DEC
LATER THIS MORNING WITH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CLOUD DECK WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME
MAKING IT MUCH FURTHER EAST THAN DECATUR. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
EAST OUT OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING WITH A LINE
OF STORMS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER 03Z AS IT APPROACHES THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL CARRY A VCTS IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME
FOR PIA AND SPI WITH LATER FORECAST TIMES FOR POINTS FURTHER
EAST LATE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TODAY WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH AN OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUST APPROACHING
20 KTS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 7 TO 12 KTS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
NON-CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR LATE THIS EVENING WITH SURFACE
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 7 TO 12 KTS AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 25 TO 35 KTS AROUND 1200 FEET AGL. HOWEVER...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION TO BE MOVING INTO PARTS OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...WILL NOT ADD LLWS INTO THE FORECAST.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

601 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

VFR AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 06Z TAF
VALID TIME, BUT AFTERNOON AND EVENING CLOUDS WILL BECOME MORE
PROMINENT AS MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP IN
EASTERN IL LATE TONIGHT NEAR CMI, PER THE LATEST HRRR OUTPUT.

LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE S-SW AT 5-7KT THE REST OF THE NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 16-18KT FOR
THE NW TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI.

EVEN THOUGH THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE POINTING TOWARD
AN OVERCAST SKY /5K FT/ BEFORE 06Z AT PIA AND BMI, AND POSSIBLY
10K FT CEILING ELSEWHERE. RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z,
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT SPRINKLES LATE IN THIS TAF PERIOD.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST OF ILLINOIS
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL STILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 5-8 MPH ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT. THE STEADY WINDS SHOULD HELP TO KEEP FOG AT BAY, DESPITE
CLEAR SKIES AND LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER
50S (NEAR THE AFTERNOON DEWPOINT TEMPS).

THE FORECAST GRIDS LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE, AND NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED
FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT THANKS TO 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
IN/KY/OH BORDER THAT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY MIDDAY
SAT. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL THIS
AFTERNOON TO DISSIPATE AT SUNSET LEAVING FAIR SKIES. SOUTH WINDS 5
TO 15 MPH TO ALSO DIMINISH LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. LOWS OVERNIGHT OF 55-
60F WITH COOLEST READINGS IN EASTERN IL CLOSER TO HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE AND WHERE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTEST. A WEAK SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT
OF CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO OVERNIGHT KEEPING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SW OF IL. SOME VERY PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT NEAR RIVERS/STREAMS IN SOUTHEAST IL BUT
COVERAGE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF REMARKABLY QUIET AND PLEASANT LATE AUGUST
WEATHER IS ON TAP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. THERE IS
ONLY ONE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
AND THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY.

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS TIGHTENED UP WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING, HAVING IT
SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT IS NOT CONDUCIVE TO
SIGNIFICANT SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE OR INTENSITY. THE BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH THE DAYTIME HOURS SUNDAY
ENCOMPASSING THE BEST CHANCES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE STORM CHANCES ON SUNDAY ALSO APPEAR LOW DUE TO THE
EARLIER ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT (LESS CHANCE FOR DIURNAL
DESTABILIZATION), AND WEAK SHEAR (BULK SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 25
KTS).

OUTSIDE OF HAVING THIS FRONT IN THE VICINITY, THE REMAINDER OF THE
PRE AND POST FRONTAL PORTION OF THIS FORECAST IS EXPECTED TO BE
DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE, AND NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

LOOK FOR WINDS TO BE S-SW AT 5-7KT THE REST OF THE NIGHT, THEN
INCREASE FROM THE SE SATURDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS TO 16-18KT FOR
THE NW TERMINALS OF PIA/BMI.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

110 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS ON TRACK FOR LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SFC COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME AGITATE CUMULUS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY HOWEVER
THE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH THE AREA. A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE
IS TRAILING OVER TO THE WEST AND SHOULD CATCH UP TO THE BOUNDARY
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM HAS AN ASSOCIATED 90 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET AND COMBINED...WILL BRING STRONG QG FORCING AND
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ALONG WITH COOLING MID LEVELS THAT WILL
ERODE THE CAP AND FORCE ASCENT. IN ADDITION...INCREASING LOW TO
UPPER LEVEL SHEAR WILL OCCUR DURING THIS TIME SUPPORTING STRONG
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INITIALLY AND BRING AN
INCREASING TORNADO THREAT. THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO QLCS
LINEAR SYSTEM AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL IOWA. THE SYSTEM SHOULD
MAINTAIN AN ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WITH ESRH VALUES AT 200-300
M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM LINE NORMAL SHEAR NEAR 30KTS. DAMAGING WINDS TO
70 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. TIMING
WISE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN IOWA ROUGHLY
4-5 PM THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND REACHING DSM
METRO IN THE 7-9 PM TIME WINDOW THEN TOWARDS THE EAST 9 PM-
MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

A VERY POTENT 500MB TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS EJECTS OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN OVER
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A SHARP COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO NEBRASKA BY MIDDAY TODAY AND THEN
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST IOWA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TROUGH BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED BY AROUND 00Z SUNDAY. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR SOME ELEVATED STORMS TO TRY AND DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN TO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...BUT WITH A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH ANYTHING WIDESPREAD AND THUS ANY SEVERE WX PRIOR TO THE FROPA
AND LEFT FORECAST DRY UNTIL 21Z.

THE HIRES 22.00Z ARW/NMM...22.00Z NSSL-WRF...22.05Z HRRR AND
COUPLE MEMBERS OF THE 22.03Z HOPWRF ALL SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION B/T 21-23Z OVER FAR NORTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO 40-45 KNOTS PAST 21Z WITH 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR BOTH
IN THE 20-30 KNOT RANGE. STRONG SURFACE BASE CAPE INCREASES TO
3000-3800 J/KG WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5-8 C/KM RANGE. LCL
HEIGHTS AROUND 600M IN THE WARM SECTOR AND EXPECTING DISCRETE
SUPERCELLS WITH INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO IS STORMS LOOK TO QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO QLCS SQUALL
LINE BY TIME THEY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO CREEP INTO THE FAR WESTERN TO
NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA (DENISON TO ESTHERVILLE
LINE) PRIOR TO THE SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION...AND HAVE POPS
INTRODUCED BY 21Z. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADIC AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UPON INITIATION
AND THEN MORE LIKELY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE SUPERCELLS EVOLVING
INTO QLCS. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITHIN THE
QLCS LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...HAVE SEVERE MENTIONED PAST
21Z IN THE FAR NORTHWEST TO COINCIDE WITH SPC ENHANCED RISK AREA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
FIRST PERIOD. SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TO A ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE SFC
CONVERGENCE ...STRONG INSTABILITY/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND
APPROACHING H500 WAVE WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z. MAIN CONCERNS AFTER 02Z WILL BE THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL
AND HEAVY RAINFALL. GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOW 0-3KM SRH ABOUT
200-300 J/KG AT KDSM AS THE LINE REACHES CENTRAL IA AT THAT TIME
WITH STORM RELATIVE HELICITY WEAKENING TOWARD 06Z IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SBCAPE IS PROGGED TO BE 2750 WITH LCL OF NEAR
692M/2000FT. INITIALLY THE THREAT THROUGH ABOUT I35 WILL STILL
INCLUDE THE RISK OF A TORNADO THOUGH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EVOLVING INTO A MORE LINEAR AND
ACCELERATING LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST
WITH TIME. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS BOTH CAPE AND HELICITY BEGIN TO LESSEN
WITH TIME. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS EVENT WILL BE BRIEF BUT
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z SATURDAY H850 ANALYSIS THIS
EVENING SHOWS A +15C PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE TEXAS COAST UP
INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE GFS IS FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF UP TO 1.7 INCHES ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WESTERN IA AT
18Z...AND A MORE BROAD AREA OF 1.75 TO AROUND 2 INCHES FROM
CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST IA FROM 00-06Z TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED
WITH AN EXPECTED WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 3600-3800M (>12KFT) OVER
WESTERN IOWA...INCREASING TO OVER 4000M (>13KFT) FROM TAMA TO
DECATUR COUNTY BY 06Z WILL PROMOTE INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
AS THE LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 50-60KTS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CATCHES UP TO THE LINE FROM 03-06Z. NMM
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE BOTH
MAXIMIZED AT THIS TIME OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. FOR NOW AM
ANTICIPATING AT LEAST A PERIOD OF 1-2 HOURS OF 1-2 INCH
RAINFALL/HOUR MAINLY FROM 03-06Z FROM NEAR AMES SOUTHWEST TO
CRESTON/LAMONI OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 30 AND ALONG AND WEST
OF I35. CURRENT 1HR GRIDDED FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT
1.75 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THIS REGION AND HIGH ENOUGH
TO AVOID A HEADLINE FOR FLASH FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF
THE RAINFALL AND LIKELIHOOD THAT IT WILL FALL DURING THE LATE
EVENING HOURS ON A WEEKEND EVENING OVER URBAN AREAS IS A CONCERN.
PONDING OF WATER AND SOME STREET FLOODING COULD BE A PROBLEM
ACROSS MOSTLY URBAN AREAS. EVENTUALLY THE LINE WILL BE NEARLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 10-13Z AS THE FORWARD MOTION TAKES IT INTO NORTHERN
MO AND SOUTHEAST IA BY 13Z.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY BENIGN. ONCE THE VIGOROUS
H500 TROUGH MOVE EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL BE EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH A WEAK WAVE IMPACTING THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL
WARM FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S EARLY IN THE PERIOD TO THE MID 70S TO
LOWER 80S LATE IN THE PERIOD. LOWS RECOVER FROM THE 40S/50S TO THE
50S/60S LATER IN THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL REVOLVE AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH
THE EVENING THEN GUSTY WINDS ON SUNDAY. LOCAL MVFR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WRN IA AFT
21Z. STRONG THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS FROM THE WEST APPROACHING 50
KTS MAY OCCUR. EXPECT MVFR CIGS WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
DROPPING TO IFR IN LOCATIONS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DONAVON
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...DONAVON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

639 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS GOOD MIXING AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT DEVELOP.
INCREASED SUSTAINED AND GUSTS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. INTRODUCED IFR
VIS AND LOWER MVFR CIGS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
FOR TIMING OF STORMS. NO SEVERE WINDS MENTIONED ATTM BUT CERTAINLY
THE BEST POTENTIAL IS AT MCW/FOD/DSM. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DES MOINES IA

344 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THE HIRES 22.00Z ARW/NMM...22.00Z NSSL-WRF...22.05Z HRRR AND COUPLE
MEMBERS OF THE 22.03Z HOPWRF ALL SUGGEST CONVECTIVE INITIATION B/T
21-23Z OVER FAR NORTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-45
KNOTS PAST 21Z WITH 0-1KM AND 0-3KM SHEAR BOTH IN THE 20-30 KNOT
RANGE. STRONG SURFACE BASE CAPE INCREASES TO 3000-3800 J/KG WITH
STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE 7.5-8 C/KM RANGE. LCL HEIGHTS AROUND 600M
IN THE WARM SECTOR AND EXPECTING DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH INITIATION
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS STORMS LOOK TO
QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO QLCS SQUALL LINE BY TIME THEY MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS TO CREEP INTO THE
FAR WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA (DENISON TO
ESTHERVILLE LINE) PRIOR TO THE SQUALL LINE EVOLUTION...AND HAVE POPS
INTRODUCED BY 21Z. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADIC AND LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL UPON INITIATION
AND THEN MORE LIKELY DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE SUPERCELLS EVOLVING
INTO QLCS. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITHIN THE QLCS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...HAVE SEVERE MENTIONED PAST 21Z IN
THE FAR NORTHWEST TO COINCIDE WITH SPC ENHANCED RISK AREA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED EARLY IN THE
FIRST PERIOD. SEVERAL FACTORS POINT TO A ROBUST LINE OF CONVECTION
THIS EVENING. A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IMPRESSIVE SFC CONVERGENCE
...STRONG INSTABILITY/HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND APPROACHING H500
WAVE WILL COMBINE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z. MAIN
CONCERNS AFTER 02Z WILL BE THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL.
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SHOW 0-3KM SRH ABOUT 200-300 J/KG AT
KDSM AS THE LINE REACHES CENTRAL IA AT THAT TIME WITH STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY WEAKENING TOWARD 06Z IN THE SOUTHEAST. SBCAPE IS PROGGED
TO BE 2750 WITH LCL OF NEAR 692M/2000FT. INITIALLY THE THREAT
THROUGH ABOUT I35 WILL STILL INCLUDE THE RISK OF A TORNADO THOUGH
ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE EVOLVING
INTO A MORE LINEAR AND ACCELERATING LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES
MORE RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS BOTH CAPE AND
HELICITY BEGIN TO LESSEN WITH TIME. THE OTHER CONCERN WITH THIS
EVENT WILL BE BRIEF BUT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. SUBJECTIVE 00Z
SATURDAY H850 ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A +15C PLUME OF MOISTURE
FROM THE TEXAS COAST UP INTO CENTRAL/WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE GFS IS
FORECASTING PRECIPITABLE WATER OF UP TO 1.7 INCHES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN WESTERN IA AT 18Z...AND A MORE BROAD AREA OF 1.75 TO
AROUND 2 INCHES FROM CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST IA FROM 00-06Z
TONIGHT. THIS COMBINED WITH AN EXPECTED WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF
3600-3800M (>12KFT) OVER WESTERN IOWA...INCREASING TO OVER 4000M
(>13KFT) FROM TAMA TO DECATUR COUNTY BY 06Z WILL PROMOTE
INCREASINGLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL AS THE LINE BECOMES MORE ORGANIZED
AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 50-60KTS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CATCHES UP TO
THE LINE FROM 03-06Z. NMM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT VECTORS ARE BOTH MAXIMIZED AT THIS TIME OVER
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. FOR NOW AM ANTICIPATING AT LEAST A PERIOD
OF 1-2 HOURS OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL/HOUR MAINLY FROM 03-06Z FROM
NEAR AMES SOUTHWEST TO CRESTON/LAMONI OR GENERALLY SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 AND ALONG AND WEST OF I35. CURRENT 1HR GRIDDED FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ABOUT 1.75 TO NEARLY 2 INCHES OVER MOST
OF THIS REGION AND HIGH ENOUGH TO AVOID A HEADLINE FOR FLASH
FLOODING. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE RAINFALL AND LIKELIHOOD THAT
IT WILL FALL DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS ON A WEEKEND EVENING
OVER URBAN AREAS IS A CONCERN. PONDING OF WATER AND SOME STREET
FLOODING COULD BE A PROBLEM ACROSS MOSTLY URBAN AREAS. EVENTUALLY
THE LINE WILL BE NEARLY OUT OF THE AREA BY 10-13Z AS THE FORWARD
MOTION TAKES IT INTO NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHEAST IA BY 13Z.

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

LOW VFR OR MVFR CEILINGS MAY ENTER WESTERN SITES NEAR 12Z...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES. WINDS WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY AND WILL BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30KTS POSSIBLE. BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SITES
NEAR 00Z...BRINGING CHANCES FOR TSRA TO SITES. TSRA MAY BRING
MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES FOR END OF PERIOD...WITH
WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY BEHIND BOUNDARY.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THIS MORNING, MULTIPLE PIECES OF EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE
MID LEVELS WERE PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONGER
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE HAD DEVELOPED A CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER FAR
NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THE REMNANT
OUTFLOW FROM THIS CLUSTER WILL DEVELOP SCT SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER
OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL KS THROUGH SUNRISE. WHAT IS MORE LIKELY IS
DRY CONDITIONS AND OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE CLEARS CLOUD DECK EASTWARD BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS
TODAY ARE STILL ON TRACK TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. RAISED DEWPOINT TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON AS MOST
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ADVECTS READINGS IN THE LOWER 70S, ESPECIALLY
OVER FAR EASTERN KANSAS. THE RESULT OF THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY ALLOW FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY TO BUILD UNDER A DECENT EML
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM NEBRASKA. BELIEVE
THE NAM REMAINS ON THE HIGH BIAS WITH MID 70S DEWPOINTS AND CAPE
PEAKING NEAR 4000 J/KG, HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE MOST
AREAS IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG CATEGORY BY 4 PM. GIVEN THE SETUP,
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS LIKELY BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DETAILS TO FOLLOW.

WITH THE STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON, THE
MAIN AREA OF ASCENT TO LIFT THESE SFC PARCELS WILL FOCUS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN CO TO
CENTRAL SD. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY TRAVERSE NEBRASKA THROUGH THE
DAY, WITH ALL GUIDANCE DEVELOPING QPF NEAR THE FRONT BETWEEN 5 PM
AND 7 PM ACROSS COUNTIES NEAR THE KS AND NE BORDER. SHORT AND MID
TERM GUIDANCE IS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORMING A LINE OF
CONVECTION THAT QUICKLY RACES SOUTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST KS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS. RAP AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW NICELY CURVED HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-3 KM SRH VALUES AT OR ABOVE 150
M2/S2 WHILE LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAXIMIZES NEAR 20 KTS. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING TIME FRAME, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
TO FORM, ESPECIALLY LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 WHERE BETTER
WIND PROFILES EXIST. OTHERWISE, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
AMPLE MUCAPE WILL CARRY THE SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH SOME AREAS PICKING UP OVER AN INCH BY SUNRISE. THE
MAIN CHANGE WITH THIS UNSEASONABLY STRONG SYSTEM IS ADJUSTING WINDS
AND TEMPS AS THE SPEED OF THE FRONT IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS
RUNS. THIS MAY ALSO FURTHER HEIGHTEN THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES MOVE IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE LINE, OPTING
FOR LOWER TEMPS IN THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH SAT
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE. HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S DUE TO THE COLD AIR ADVECTION. MONDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE THE COOLEST AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS, LOWS
ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO THE LOWER 50S OR AROUND 50.

NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE QUIET FOR THE MOST PART. MODELS CONTINUE TO
AMPLIFY AN UPPER RIDGE JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
BLOCKING PATTERN MAKES IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY WAVE OF SUBSTANCE TO
AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA, AND THERE IS LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE
GFS SOLUTIONS AND THE TRANSIENT VORT MAXIMUM IT DEVELOPS. HAVE
LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF WHICH AT A LOWER RESOLUTION, TENDS
TO KEEP WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WITHOUT THE SMALL SCALE
PERTURBATIONS THROUGH MID WEEK. BY FRIDAY, THE ECMWF/GFS/CANADIAN
SEEM TO BRING A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED WAVE OVER THE TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY. BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS IN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR
AIRMASS RESIDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK. SO AFTER A COOL
START ON MONDAY, TEMPS SHOULD MODERATE WITH RISING HEIGHTS. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 80S WHILE LOWS GRADUALLY TREND WARMER
FROM THE MID 50S TUESDAY TO THE MID 60S FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM 3Z
THROUGH 7Z SUN. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
EXPECT MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS THIS LINE OF
STORMS MOVE THROUGH. ALSO THERE MAY BE STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE LINE WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME WIND GUSTS TO BE
OVER 40 KTS. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS AFTER
8Z SUN.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...GARGAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TOPEKA KS

320 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

LOW STRATUS ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KS IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD TERMINALS. WILL CARRY THIS
OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME HAZE BUT BREAKS UP QUICKLY IN THE
MORNING. FRONT MOVES IN LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
ENOUGH TO START A PREVAILING GROUP.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...BOWEN
LONG TERM...WOLTERS
AVIATION...67

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1013 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1015 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL HANGING BACK ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN
KY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN QUITE MEAGER TO NON EXISTENT
SOUTH OF SW OH. GIVEN THE HRRR STILL HAS SOMETHING COMING THROUGH
WITH THE FRONT HAVE KEPT ISOLATED POPS IN THE FORECAST. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE SEE A BIT OF A NW FLOW REGIME WE COULD
SEE SOME FOG OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE EARLY MORNING.
OTHERWISE FOR MONDAY STILL LOOKING AT A DRY AIRMASS MOVING SOUTH
INTO THE REGION...WITH PWATS GOING TOWARD 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 607 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT AS IT EXITS EAST
MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE TN/VA BORDERS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF
THIS HAS BEEN IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...BUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
STORMS HAVE AND COULD OCCUR. THEREFORE UPDATED POPS TO BRING A FEW
MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS FURTHER NORTH AND THEN SLOWLY MIX THEM BACK
INTO PREVIOUS FORECAST. OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES NEEDED
FOR LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

SAT AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST FRONT STILL REMAINS A BIT WEST
OF WESTERN KY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE THE NEXT CONCERN
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC CONTINUES TO
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT UNTIL YOU GET TO AROUND
INDIANAPOLIS. THAT SAID THE CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS POPPING UP NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
REGION FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY BETWEEN 4Z AND 12Z. SO AT THIS
POINT DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...SINCE
CURRENTLY AGREE WITH BETTER CHANCES BEING GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I64.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES/NORTHERN ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION. A LEAD
SHORTWAVE IS DEPARTING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA ATTM...THAT BROUGHT
THE SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY. ALSO...A
LARGE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDED FROM THE WESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND ALSO NORTH INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS NEARLY
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT EXTENDED SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES TO MID MS VALLEY TO SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION. MEANWHILE...A
SFC HIGH WAS CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH A DRY AND
COLDER AIRMASS ACROSS THAT REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 40S AND
50S ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE FRONT.

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD MEANDER
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND INTO EASTERN
ONTARIO BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WHILE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE
RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THEN NORTH
ACROSS THE ROCKIES REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THIS WILL KEEP A
DRY WEST NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES MAY ROTATE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH ONE POSSIBLY
BRINING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS TO THE AREA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME FLAT CU MAY ALSO DEVELOP ON MONDAY AS WELL AS SOME
MOISTURE WILL LINGER NEAR 850 MB.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS PEAK HEATING
IS APPROACHING...AND THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
NEAR...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE VA
AND TN BORDERS. TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WHILE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 60S
IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY INDICATES THAT THE
ONGOING CONVECTION COULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE A BIT BEFORE EARLY
EVENING...AND THEN LARGELY DIMINISH. THEN...AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA...ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
SHOULD APPROACH THE REGION AFTER SUNSET...AND THEN BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE. WHAT CONVECTION THAT CAN MANAGE TO LINGER OR DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WHICH IS
NOT THAT CONDUCIVE TO MUCH COVERAGE. ALSO...THE BEST FORCING WITH
THE SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE ALSO ONLY SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE...IF THAT TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MOVE
INTO VA NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...AND THE THREAT FOR
LINGERING SHOWERS THERE SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGHOUT MONDAY MORNING.
MAINLY ISOLATED POPS WERE USED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH SOME
SCATTERED POPS NEAR THE VA BORDER. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS
WERE USED IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST FOR EARLY ON MONDAY.

BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE OH
VALLEY REGION. DRIER AIR SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN PART OF THE AREA
FIRST...AS HAS OCCURRED WITH THE PAST COUPLE OF FRONTS. THIS
SHOULD FAVOR THE COLDEST LOCATIONS BEHIND ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...WHERE A FEW READINGS NEAR 50 ARE EXPECTED. A SPOT OR
TWO MAY REACH 48 OR 49. FURTHER EAST...DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOLD UP
FAR ENOUGH INTO THE 50S FOR VALLEY FOG FORMATION AND LOWS CLOSER
TO THE MID 50S. THIS AIRMASS APPEARS DRIER THAN THE PAST COUPLE
FOR THE NIGHT BEHIND A FROPA...HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED MIN T
GUIDANCE TOWARD RECENT OBSERVED PATTERN OF COLDER IN THE WEST FOR
MON NIGHT MIN T.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTHEAST ONTARIO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND MOVE NORTHEAST BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...WHILE AT THE UPPER LEVELS WE REMAIN UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW
UP IN THE HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS
STATES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...BUT THE DIFFERENCES
HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON THIS FORECAST.

AT THE SURFACE...COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AND WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER
INTO FRIDAY. THE AIR MASS MOVING INTO OUR AREA WILL PROVIDE FOR A
PREVIEW OF EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING IN THE
50S FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO OUR EAST...AND
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE PLAINS.
UNTIL THEN DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS EVENING RIGHT ALONG THE VA
BORDER...HOWEVER ALL TAF SITES ARE STARTING OUT DRY AND VFR. WE
CONTINUE TO WATCH A COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN KY
AS OF THE 21Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO WANT
TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LATER TONIGHT ALONG AND
NEAR THE FRONT. RIGHT NOW WILL THEY ARE A BIT OVERDONE...SO STUCK
WITH THE VCSH/VCTS FOR A PERIOD LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER DID MOVE THE TIME UP CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOR EACH SITE AND GIVEN NO SHOWERS HAVE FILLED IN YET
UPSTREAM CONFIDENCE WAS LOW ON THE EARLIER START TIME. AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THE ISSUE THEN BECOMES FOG OR
STRATUS THAT MAY BE ABLE TO FORM IN THE NW FLOW REGIME IN THE
WAKE. SO STUCK CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER THIS AND WE SHOULD
SEE A RETURN TO VFR BY 15Z OR EARLIER. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GENERALLY PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL BE
WEST.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1244 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION AND STALL ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS AFTERNOON WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BRIEFLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1245 PM UPDATE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF
DOWNEAST MAINE, ESPECIALLY IN A BAND FROM DANFORTH DOWN THROUGH
BANGOR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE LATEST
HRRR IS STILL SHOWING THAT THERE`LL BE MORE COVERAGE TOWARD
EVENING, THOUGH IT`S SHIFTED THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS
A BIT FURTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY. HAVE KEPT POPS
THE SAME FOR NOW, EXCEPT TRIMMED BACK TO ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY, WHERE NO SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY
FALLING. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY E ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KM AND
RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS ATTM KEEPING HIGHER POPS OVER
EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SAGS
ESE AND THEN STALLS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE COAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE
AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
THERE ESPECIALLY FOR WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY. SOUNDING DATA
SUPPORTED SBCAPES OF 500-800 JOULES AND LIS DOWN TO -3 W/PWATS OF
1.8+ INCHES. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.2 C/KM EXPECTED, SO
TSTM POTENTIAL IS THERE. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND WBZS(14K FT)
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY TSTMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 12 KTS W/SW FLOW THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALSO ALLOW ANY STORMS
TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS ALL HINGES ON HEATING POTENTIAL
WHICH COULD BE DELAYED FOR A WHILE. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO CARRY
TSTMS FOR THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS W/6 AM UPDATE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PISCATAQUIS AND
AROOSTOOK COUNTY, DRIER W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

FOR TONIGHT, THE FRONT LOOKS AS THOUGH IT TRIES TO BUCKLE BACK TO
THE NORTH AS A WEAL UPPER LOW LIFTS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO EDGE A BIT FURTHER NNE INTO CENTRAL PENOBSCOT AND
NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY. FURTHER N AND W., DRIER AND A BIT
COOLER OVERNIGHT. FOG LOOKS TO BE A THREAT OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH AND WEST W/MID 60S FOR THE DOWNEAST
AND COAST.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC DURING SUNDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES. A MOIST
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW AROUND THESE SYSTEMS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN AFTERNOON TSTM TO MAINLY PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND DOWN EAST MAINE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY
START TO DRIFT EAST MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROF FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE IN THE MID TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AS A
TROF OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST SLOWLY CROSSES THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUED THREAT FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY. WE SHOULD START TO DRY OUT A BIT BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBGR AND IFR/LIFR KBHB THIS MORNING W/VFR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR KBHB
TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR COULD DROP BACK TO IFR THIS
MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE NORTH, PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING
W/A RECOVERY TO VFR. FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO GO TO MVFR NORTH OF KBHB WHILE KBHB DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL VARY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
VFR DOWN TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY MAINLY NIGHTTIME FOG.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES EXPECTED THIS TERM. SSE SWELL OF 2 FT OUT
THERE ATTM AND A SLIGHT BUILD IN WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS W/FOG A NUISANCE TO NAVIGATION.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

1005 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1005 AM UPDATE...THE FRONT REMAINS POISED ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE
THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY RIDING UP JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE LATEST HRRR IS DOING A PRETTY GOOD JOB WITH MODELED
RADAR, AND IT KEEPS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ACROSS DOWNEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING. IT HINTS THAT THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION WILL
BE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTIES,
WITH POSSIBLE TRAINING CELLS. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS IN
THESE AREAS TO LIKELY FOR THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, JUST MADE
SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE SKY COVER. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBGR AND IFR/LIFR KBHB THIS MORNING W/VFR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR KBHB
TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR COULD DROP BACK TO IFR THIS
MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE NORTH, PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING
W/A RECOVERY TO VFR. FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO GO TO MVFR NORTH OF KBHB WHILE KBHB DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL VARY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
VFR DOWN TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY MAINLY NIGHTTIME FOG.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HASTINGS/HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HASTINGS/HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

704 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
655 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED SKY AND TEMPS TO MATCH WITH THE LATEST
CONDITIONS. RADAR SHOWED LINE OF SHOWERS MOVING NE THROUGH HANCOCK
AND WASHINGTON COUNTY. ADJUSTED THE POPS A BIT FURTHER N TO
ACCOUNT FOR RADAR LOOP SHOWING PRECIP MOVING INTO SE AROOSTOOK
COUNTY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY E
ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KM AND RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THINGS ATTM KEEPING HIGHER POPS OVER EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SAGS ESE AND THEN STALLS ACROSS
DOWNEAST MAINE COAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE AND SOME WEAK MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS THERE
ESPECIALLY FOR WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY. SOUNDING DATA
SUPPORTED SBCAPES OF 500-800 JOULES AND LIS DOWN TO -3 W/PWATS OF
1.8+ INCHES. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.2 C/KM EXPECTED, SO
TSTM POTENTIAL IS THERE. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND WBZS(14K FT)
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY TSTMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 12 KTS W/SW FLOW THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALSO ALLOW ANY STORMS
TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS ALL HINGES ON HEATING POTENTIAL
WHICH COULD BE DELAYED FOR A WHILE. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO CARRY
TSTMS FOR THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON COUNTY
BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT
THINGS W/6 AM UPDATE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PISCATAQUIS AND
AROOSTOOK COUNTY, DRIER W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBGR AND IFR/LIFR KBHB THIS MORNING W/VFR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR KBHB
TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR COULD DROP BACK TO IFR THIS
MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE NORTH, PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING
W/A RECOVERY TO VFR. FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO GO TO MVFR NORTH OF KBHB WHILE KBHB DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL VARY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
VFR DOWN TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY MAINLY NIGHTTIME FOG.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

416 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 07Z...HEAVY RAIN SHIFTED INTO SE AROOSTOOK COUNTY AND
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. ANOTHER SMALLER BATCH OF RAIN
HAD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS
HEAVY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
WORKING ITS WAY E ACROSS WESTERN MAINE. AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR KM AND
RAP HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THINGS ATTM KEEPING HIGHER POPS OVER
EASTERN AREAS THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT SAGS ESE
AND THEN STALLS ACROSS DOWNEAST MAINE COAST. LLVL CONVERGENCE AND
SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS INTO EARLY EVENING. INSTABILITY IS
THERE ESPECIALLY FOR WASHINGTON AND HANCOCK COUNTY. SOUNDING DATA
SUPPORTED SBCAPES OF 500-800 JOULES AND LIS DOWN TO -3 W/PWATS OF
1.8+ INCHES. LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.2 C/KM EXPECTED, SO
TSTM POTENTIAL IS THERE. HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND WBZS(14K FT)
WILL ALLOW FOR ANY TSTMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL. 0-6KM SHEAR
AROUND 12 KTS W/SW FLOW THROUGH 700MBS WILL ALSO ALLOW ANY STORMS
TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS. THIS ALL HINGES ON HEATING
POTENTIAL WHICH COULD BE DELAYED FOR A WHILE. THEREFORE, DECIDED
TO CARRY TSTMS FOR THE DOWNEAST ESPECIALLY HANCOCK AND WASHINGTON
COUNTY BUT LEFT OUT ENHANCED WORDING ATTM. WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT THINGS W/6 AM UPDATE. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS PISCATAQUIS AND
AROOSTOOK COUNTY, DRIER W/SOME PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR FOR KBGR AND IFR/LIFR KBHB THIS MORNING W/VFR
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. SOME IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED FOR KBHB
TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR COULD DROP BACK TO IFR THIS
MORNING BEFORE RECOVERING BACK TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE NORTH, PERIODS OF MVFR EXPECTED THIS MORNING
W/A RECOVERY TO VFR. FOG POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT COULD ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO GO TO MVFR NORTH OF KBHB WHILE KBHB DOWN TO IFR.

SHORT TERM: CONDITIONS WILL VARY AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM
VFR DOWN TO IFR IN SHOWERS AND PATCHY MAINLY NIGHTTIME FOG.

SHORT TERM: WIND/SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT
SHORT TERM...DUDA
LONG TERM...DUDA
AVIATION...HEWITT/DUDA
MARINE...HEWITT/DUDA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CARIBOU ME

103 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN BRIEFLY FOR SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN RETURN
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1245 AM UPDATE: HEAVY RAIN AXIS EXTENDING FROM NE AROOSTOOK COUNTY
DOWN THROUGH PENOBSCOT AND PISCATAQUIS COUNTY HAD SHIFTED E PER
THE LATEST RADAR LOOP. TSTMS HELPING W/TEH HEAVY RAINFALL
W/REPORTS OF OVER 5 INCHES IN GUILFORD SINCE LATE AFTERNOON.
DECIDED TO MOVE RAIN AXIS A BIT EASTWARD MATCHING UP W/THE RADAR
AND THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR 3KM MODEL. SOME ROADS IN GUILFORD
WERE STARTING TO FLOOD AND A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED
EARLIER FOR THIS REGION. THE FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHERN PISCATAQUIS COUNTY UNTIL 2AM .

BY DAYBREAK THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY HOULTON TO DOVER-
FOXCROFT. AREAS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN VERY
MUGGY AIR, WITH AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG EXPECTED. NORTH OF THE
FRONT, SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LINGER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN FALLS, FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW TREK TOWARD THE COAST LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE RULE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT, DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW FOR
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. HIGHS WILL MAINLY
BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE, A LITTLE COOLER ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WHATS LEFT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY JUST OFF THE
DOWNEAST COAST SAT NGT INTO SUN WHILE SFC LOW PRES OVR THE ATLC
WELL E OF THE MID ATLC STATES SLOWLY MEANDERS EWRD AND WEAKENS.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE FA IN A WEAK FLOW REGIME WHERE INITIALLY LEFT
OVR LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MSLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CHANCE
OF SHWRS/TSTMS MSLY OVR THE SE PTN OF THE FA SUN AFTN INTO EVE.
SHWRS AND TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE SUN NGT WITH THE LOSS OF
HTG.

THE POTENTIAL OF SHWRS AND A CHC OF TSTMS WILL XTND FURTHER N TO
CVR ALL OF THE FA BY MON AFTN AS WEAK S/WV ENERGY FROM A DEEP
UPPER TROF OVR THE MIDWEST REACHES THE FA. FOR BOTH SUN AFTN/EVE
AND MON AFTN/ERLY EVE...FCST LOW END MAX SBCAPES SUPPORTS A CHC OF
TSTMS...WITH LCLY HVY RN THE MAIN CONCERN ATTM. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY ENHANCED TSTM WORDING FOR NOW WITH SHWRS/TSTMS XPCTD IN THE
NEAR TERM. POPS OVR THE FA WERE DERIVED FROM BLENDED MODEL/WPC
6 HRLY QPF AMOUNTS...WITH THE HIGHEST LIKELY POPS XPCTD ACROSS
NRN/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA MON AFTN.

OTHERWISE...LATE NGT PATCHY FOG IS XPCTD BOTH SAT NGT AND SUN
NGT OVR THE FA...MOST LIKELY LASTING LONGEST INTO THE MORN OVR
DOWNEAST AREAS. BOTH HI AND LOW TEMPS WILL CONT ABV NORMAL WITH
DWPT TEMPS MSLY REMAINING IN THE 60S FOR ALL...XCPT HI TRRN LCTNS
THRU THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A RETURN OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER AND MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BEGINNING DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE, AND MAYBE A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTH. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTH, WHILE DOWNEAST
AREAS HAVE PARTIAL CLEARING ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH A
LITTLE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN BRING CLEARING THROUGHOUT
THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTH. FRIDAY
MAY BEGIN WITH SOME SUNSHINE OVER THE REGION. ANOTHER TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL THEN BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY NORTH, LATE FRIDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE BEFORE DRY AIR
BRINGS A RETURN FOR SOME SUNSHINE FOR THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: 11PM UPDATE: KBHB AT LIFR CIGS, AND FOG APPEARS TO BE
ROLLING IN WITH VIS DOWN TO IFR LEVELS. MAINTAIN LIFR CIGS AND IFR
VIS THRU 13Z, WITH IFR CIGS THROUGH 17Z. KBGR ALSO HAS LIFR CIGS
AND VIS IS DROPPING TOWARD IFR AS WELL. KEEP IFR CONDITIONS AT
KBGR THROUGH 16Z, WITH VIS IMPROVING BY 13Z. NORTHERN TERMINALS
HAVE DRIFTED IN AND OUT OF IFR VIS AND CIGS WITH BOUTS OF HEAVY
RAIN, BUT FOR NOW ONLY BRING KHUL DOWN TO IFR CIGS, WITH OTHER 3
TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR THRU THE NIGHT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/LOCAL LIFR EXPECTED KBGR, AND KBHB IN
FOG THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FURTHER NORTH, MVFR WITH
OCCASIONAL IFR DUE TO SHOWERS IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER, LOCALLY LOWER
CONDITIONS IN FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN SITES.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY, BUT IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON A GOOD PART OF
THE MORNING, ESPECIALLY AT KBHB. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT KHUL, KBGR, AND KBHB TOMORROW,
WITH LOCAL MVFR POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER ACTIVITY.

SHORT TERM: IFR LATE NGT INTO ERLY MORN BOTH SAT NGT/SUN MORN AND
SUN AFTN/MON MORN ALL TAF SITES. OTHERWISE MVFR TO LOW VFR CLGS...AND
ATTMS MVFR VSBYS DURG THE AFTN AND EVE HRS IN TSTMS AND HEAVIER
SHWRS.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: AREAS TO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EXPECTED TO PERSIST
OFFSHORE AS THE MAIN HAZARD IN NEAR TERM FOR THE MARINE ZONES.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND ONSHORE, WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT,
MOSTLY SWELL.

SHORT TERM: NO HDLNS ANTICIPATED...WITH AT LEAST PATCHY MARINE FOG
CVRG POSSIBLE SAT NGT AND SUN NGT. WV HTS WILL MSLY BE 3 TO 4 FT
OVR THE OUTER MZS WATERS WITH 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE INNER BAY/HARBOR
WATERS...WITH A MDT SWELL COMPONENT. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 GUIDANCE
THIS UPDATE...WITH ABOUT A 25 PERCENT REDUCTION ALG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...HEWITT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MARQUETTE MI

959 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS OVER WESTERN UPR
MICHIGAN THIS EVENING AND LINK THOSE TO THE ALREADY GOING LIKELY
POPS OVERNIGHT. BASED THE INCREASE IN POPS ON AVAILABLE WEB CAMS AND
REPORTS FM OBSERVERS POINTING TO WET CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
WEST CWA. AUTOMATED OBS EARLIER IN THE EVENING OVER FAR NCNTRL WI
SHOWED VSBY REDUCTIONS DUE TO LGT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE.

RADAR IS NOT SHOWING A LOT OF THIS ACTIVITY...LIKELY BECAUSE IT IS
SHALLOWER BASED LIGHTER RAIN MAINLY DUE TO UPSLOPE FLOW WITH LAKE
ENHANCEMENT AS RAP SHOWS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO 4-5C /WATER TEMPS 13-15C/
WITH WNW WINDS AT H85. 0.5 DEGREE RADAR SLICE RUNS FM 8000-11000 FT
AGL OVER THE WESTERN CWA...SO IT IS PROBABLY OVERSHOOTING MUCH OF
THE RAIN ECHOES. SINCE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF LK SUPERIOR IS
ONLY SLOWLY WEAKENING THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXPECT GENERALLY STEADY
STATE MOISTURE AND WINDS FOR REST OF TONIGHT. ONLY CHANGE IS TEMPS IN
THE 925MB- 850MB LAYER STEADILY COOL TO AROUND +1C BY DAYBREAK.
COOLING WILL ONLY INCREASE THE OVER-WATER INSTABILITY FOR THE NW FLOW
AREAS OF WESTERN CWA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW POTENT SHRTWV/
CUTOFF H5 LO LIFTING NORTH OF THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
ONTARIO. THIS POTENT SYSTEM CAUSED 00Z-12Z H5 HGT FALLS OF 160M AT
KINL AND 120-140M HGT FALLS OVER UPPER MI. STRONG UPPER
DIFFLUENCE/DPVA AND DEEP LAYER QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE RESULTED IN
A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND STRONG STORMS MOVING ACROSS UPPER MI
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS
EXITED E OF MOST OF THE CWA...BUT THERE WAS STILL SOME LINGERING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
APPROXIMATELY ALONG A LINE FROM MUNISING TO GARDEN IN PAST HOUR.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WERE ALSO BEGINNING TO WORK INTO THE FAR WRN
CWA THIS PAST HOUR WITH WRAPAROUND MOISTURE MOVING IN ON BACKSIDE OF
ONTARIO LOW.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
CWA SHOULD END BETWEEN 22-00Z THIS EVENING AS FRONT EXITS THE AREA.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WRAPAROUND MOISTURE AND STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF NEARLY VERICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST FROM ONTARIO ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION. THIS DEEPER MOISTURE AND COLD ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO
LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR IN A
WNW WIND FLOW. 8H TEMPS DROPPING TO 3C WEST AND 5-6C EAST LATE
TONIGHT IN A WESTERLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF
LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT OVER THE WRN U.P. AND EVEN
CARRYING INTO THE HURON MOUNTAINS AS CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
INCREASE TOWARD 30KTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE COLD ADVECTION WILL
RESULT IN LAKE DELTA-T VALUES 10-13C SUFFICIENT FOR LAKE ENHANCED
RAIN IN STRONGLY CYCLONIC WESTERLY FLOW. WILL CONTINUE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WINDS VEERING
MORE NW DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WILL BRING LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS
INTO ERN COUNTIES OF UPPER MI SO HAVE CORRESPONDINGLY BUMPED UP POPS
THERE TO HIGH LIKELY/CATEGORICAL ON MONDAY AS WELL. THE REST OF THE
CWA WILL SEE ISOLD TO SCT LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING QUICKLY TONIGHT WITH THE CAA IN THE WAKE OF
THE SYSTEM. EXPECT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR WEST TO
MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES. MONDAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE
OCTOBER AS TEMPS ONLY RISE A FEW DEGREES WITH MOST READINGS STAYING
IN THE 50S. RECORD LOW MAXIMUM TEMPS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN JEOPARDY
AT A NUMBER OF SITES.

DEEP MIXING FROM COLD ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. IT WILL BE WINDY OVER THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA (ESPECIALLY THE PORTAGE CANAL) WITH THE FAVORED
WESTERLY WIND DIRECTION AND MORE UNSTABLE FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR SO
EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS GUSTING 35-40 MPH AT SOME OF THE MORE
EXPOSED LOCATIONS OVER THE KEWEENAW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

DAMP AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATION TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEEP CLOSED MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR AT 00Z/TUE WILL GRAUDALLY
FILL AND MOVE TO QUEBEC BY WED. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH BACK TOWARD
THE WESTERN LAKES BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND.

MON NIGHT INTO TUE...DEEP MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SCT/ISOLD -SHRA TO MOST OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH 850 MB TEMPS INTO THE 3C-5C RANGE AND LAKE WATER
TEMPS NEAR 16C...LAKE ENHANCED RAIN WILL BRING MORE SIGNFICANT
RAIN...WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS...TO LOCATIONS FAVORED BY WNW
LOW LEVEL FLOW SUCH AS NW UPPER MI AND AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO BOOST PCPN AMOUNTS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S OVER THE NW HALF TO
THE LOW AND MID 60S OVER THE SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NNW AS 850
TEMPS CLIMB TO NEAR 7C BY 12Z/WED. THIS SHOULD BRING GREATER -SHRA
COVERAGE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI EVEN AS THE AMOUNTS DIMINISH. EXPECT
THE PCPN TO DIMINISH AND END WED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE SHIFTS TO THE
EAST. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...WITH FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS
AS THE SFC RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND PWAT VALUES BLO 0.5
INCH...EXPECT INLAND MIN TEMPS INTO THE MID 40S INLAND. ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE THU SHOULD PUSH TEMPS BACK TO SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

FRI-SUN...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT AND IMPACT OF A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS INTO THE
MID AND UPPER 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT
DRIFTS ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MOIST CYCLONIC
LOW-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING THE LOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL THE
TAF SITES AT TIMES. RAIN SHOWERS ENHANCED BY COOLER AIR FLOWING OVER
LK SUPERIOR WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW AT
KIWD AND KCMX. VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE OVER 6SM IN THE
SHOWERS...BUT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POCKET OF COOLEST AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT KIWD AND KCMX DUE TO STRONGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT. GUSTY W-NW
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES POSSIBLY OVER
30 KTS AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

A FALL LIKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO. GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT AS
IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REST OF THE LAKE TODAY IT WILL SHIFT WINDS
TO THE WEST AND LEAD TO GALES TO 35 KNOTS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EXPANDING ACROSS THE REST OF
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
WITH THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS IT NEARS
JAMES BAY...THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY..WHICH WILL LOWER WINDS BELOW
20KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

750 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 747 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ162-263-264.

GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LSZ265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ MONDAY FOR LSZ240>244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

128 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

WEATHER REMAINS QUIET INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMING TREND. IN THE REAL
NEAR TERM...TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF THE HRRR AND RAP SHOWING A FEW
BLIPS ON THE MODELED REFLECTIVITY ARE REALISTIC. REGIONAL RADAR LOOP
HAS SHOWN ISOLD ECHOES OVER NORTHERN WI...BUT ONLY OBS SHOWING LGT
RAIN ARE OVER WCNTRL WI CLOSER TO MUCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J/KG.
ANOTHER AGITATED AREA OF MID CLOUDS AND ISOLD SHRA IS OVER MN
ARROWHEAD. MAIN SHORTWAVE DRIVING THAT AREA OF WX IS LIFTING OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO INSTEAD OF TOWARD UPR MICHIGAN. OVER THE CWA REST
OF THIS AFTN...HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS SHOW NARROW LAYER OF MOISTURE
AROUND H7 WITH DRY AIR BLO AND ABOVE. GOING TO KEEP IT DRY WITH JUST
INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATE THIS AFTN INTO THE EVENING.

FOR REST OF SHORT TERM...STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN
BRITISH COLUMBIA THIS AFTN DIGS ACROSS ROCKIES OF ALBERTA AND
MONTANA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SFC TROUGH OVER MONTANA
THIS AFTN DEEPENING TO A 995-1000MB SFC LOW OVER DAKOTAS BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SINCE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT REMAIN TO THE WEST OF UPR
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING...APPEARS TO BE A
DRY...WARM...AND WINDY DAY IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SFC LOW. WINDS
HAVE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE GUSTY WITH EASILY 25-30 KTS IN THE MIXED
LAYER ON SATURDAY AFTN. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE
TIGHT AS UPR MICHIGAN IS BETWEEN THE APPROACHING SFC LOW AND
DEPARTING HIGH OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. DECENT AGREEMENT FM
NAM/GFS/GEM-REGIONAL ON THE WINDS/WIND GUSTS FOR SATURDAY. COULD SEE
WIND GUSTS 30 TO POSSIBLY 40 MPH DURING PEAK HEATING ON SATURDAY
AFTN.

THERE IS A CAVEAT FOR THE MIXING STRENGTH THOUGH. NOT A LOT OF CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED AS MOST MID CLOUDS THAT MOVE THROUGH INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDY. YET...LIKELY
WILL SEE FILTERED OR DIMMED SUNSHINE AS WIDESPREAD AREA OF SMOKE
ALOFT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TODAY /25KFT AGL PER MANUAL SFC
OBS FM DAKOTAS TO MINNESOTA/ MOVES OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BASED
ON EXPECTED WINDS IN THE SMOKE LAYER /H4-H3/. ALWAYS TOUGH TO
PREDICT EXACT COVERAGE AND THICKNESS OF SMOKE LAYER...BUT GIVEN ALL
THE SMOKE UPSTREAM THIS AFTN...TRENDED HIGHER ON THE SKY COVER TO AT
LEAST GO PARTLY CLOUDY INSTEAD OF SUNNY. DURING OTHER BOUTS EARLIER
THIS SUMMER WITH SMOKE ALOFT...MIXING WAS HELD DOWN MORE THAN WHAT
YOU WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT...SO THAT MAY OCCUR AGAIN. BASED ON
FORECAST H85 TEMPS OF 16-18C...TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE 80S AWAY FM
LAKE MICHIGAN. CAPPED READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S...WARMEST ALONG
LK SUPERIOR DUE TO STRONG/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS PROVIDING DOWNSLOPING
WARMING. TEMPS NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL REACH UPPER 70S. WILL BE BUMPY
AGAIN FOR WINDS/WAVES ON NORTHERN LK MICHIGAN ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY
AFTN DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS. PROBABLY WILL NEED ANOTHER
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE MARINE INTERESTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WEATHER WISE...WITH
ANOTHER AUTUMN LIKE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
ACROSS THE AREA BEING SUNDAY MORNING...WITH MUCH COOLER AIR MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
SETTLES JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS
SPREADING WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. DUE
TO THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS...DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS DEVELOPING OVER MN EARLY SAT
EVENING WITH THE RESIDUAL MOVING INTO UPPER MI OVERNIGHT. AS
SUCH...WILL KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

AFTER FROPA...EXPECT SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE PCPN IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY IN THE DRY SLOT. BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE SOME LAKE EFFECT RAIN IS POSSIBLE DUE TO 850MB
TEMPS DROPPING TO +4C YIELDING LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WITH WATER
TEMPS AROUND +15C ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN BASIN. AS
SUCH...WILL MAINTAIN NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR NORTHWEST UPPER MICHIGAN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL LIKELY DROP DURING THE DAY WHILE TEMPS
ON MONDAY WILL BE LUCKY TO RISE OUT OF THE 50S. IN FACT...WITH 850MB
TEMPS BEING SO COLD...IF IT REMAINS CLOUDY ALL DAY THERE MAY BE SPOT
OR TWO THAT STAYS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.
REGARDLESS...MONDAY WILL FEEL QUITE LIKE AUTUMN WITH BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND COOL TEMPERATURES.

WITH THE UPPER LOW BECOME CLOSED OFF NORTH OF THE AREA...WE WILL SEE
PERSISTING DEEP CYCLONIC NW FLOW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR...THEN SLOWLY TAPERING FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST
TO MOVE EAST YIELDING TO CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT. QUIET BUT STILL
COOL WEATHER EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AND
UPPER HEIGHTS RISE. NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
NW FLOW ALOFT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 127 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

DRY AIR MASS WILL LINGER AT THE LOW LEVELS THRU THIS FCST PERIOD...
RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. ONE ITEM OF NOTE WILL
BE THE THICK SMOKE LAYER WELL ALOFT OVER THE AREA THAT HAS
ORIGINATED FROM THE FOREST FIRES IN THE PACIFIC NW. OTHERWISE...
TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT BTWN HIGH PRES OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
VCNTY AND A VIGOROUS LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE DAKOTAS
WILL RESULT IN LLWS OVERNIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS. WITH ONSET OF
DAYTIME HEATING...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S. HIGHEST GUSTS
TO AROUND 30KT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTN AT KIWD/KSAW. APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL SPREAD
SHRA AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDER TO NEAR KIWD AT THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 21 2015

S WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KTS TONIGHT UNDER SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEPARTING RIDGE AND A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO ONTARIO. MAY SEE GUSTS TO 30 KTS OVER
EASTERN LK SUPERIOR ON SATURDAY AFTN. STEADY S WINDS WILL VEER
TOWARD THE W FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON LATE SAT NIGHT/SUN
AND INCREASE UP TO 30 KTS. DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING SLOWLY NE THRU ONTARIO...THERE COULD BE SOME
MARGINAL GALES TO 35 KTS AT TIMES ON SUN INTO MON WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF COOLER AIR/MORE DESTABILIZATION OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LAKE
WATERS AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER TO THE NW UNDER TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING HI PRES RIDGE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THE HI MOVES CLOSER AND THE GRADIENT SLACKENS...EXPECT
WINDS TO DIMINISH LATER TUE INTO WED.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...JLA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

846 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HAZY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL IMPROVE OVER
THE WEEKEND AS SMOKE FROM CALIFORNIA WILDFIRES IS STEERED TOWARD
CENTRAL NEVADA. A SHALLOW PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LINCOLN
AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES THIS WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND COULD LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL RESULT
IN INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&

.UPDATE...MINOR MID LEVEL WAVE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA PROGGED TO
CONTINUE EAST INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL LIFT
PROVIDED BY WAVE SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HRRR AND HI-RES MODELS SUPPORT CURRENT
POPS SO NO UPDATE NEEDED.

AS FOR SMOKE FROM THE ROUGH FIRE. A SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WINDS LOOKS
TO HAVE TAKEN MUCH OF THE SMOKE FROM YESTERDAY NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL NEVADA. BISHOP AND TONOPAH HAVE BEEN REPORTING VISIBILITIES
BETWEEN 7 AND 10 MILES MOST OF THE NIGHT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY DRY DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE OVER YESTERDAY IS THAT DESPITE A
MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE AND INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA
YESTERDAY...NO THUNDERSTORMS WERE ABLE TO FORM DUE TO LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE REGION. THINGS TODAY LOOK A LITTLE MORE
PROMISING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTERACTING WITH SOME OF THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY THAT
IS IN PLACE ACROSS MAINLY LINCOLN AND NORTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
EARLY MORNING RUNS OF THE HRRR BREAK OUT ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS
LINCOLN COUNTY BETWEEN 1PM AND 2PM AND WITH THE WEAK SHORT WAVE
PUSHING THROUGH...THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH LIFT TO SUPPORT THIS.
THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE ESPECIALLY IN LINCOLN COUNTY IS STILL A BIT
DRY...SO GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE
RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OUTSIDE OF
THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WILL BE DRY.

ON SUNDAY...ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO FAR
EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NUDGES INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON RISE INTO THE INCH TO INCH AND A HALF RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...AND THIS MOISTURE CONTENT ADVECTS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS DEEPER MOISTURE (AIDED BY A RATHER VIGOROUS INVERTED
TROUGH) MAY ALLOW FOR NOCTURNAL CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 15. HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH STORMS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE LATEST OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS REMAIN IN GOOD LARGE SCALE
AGREEMENT THIS EVENING FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. BOTH THE 00Z RUNS
OF THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS REGARDING
THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX THAT IS
PROGGED TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF TRAVERSING EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. AS MENTIONED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO PLACE THE CENTER OF THE
FOUR CORNERS HIGH FURTHER WEST THAN THE GFS DOES...LEADING TO A
SLIGHT DELAY IN MOISTURE RETURN AND YIELDING MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY ONWARD. DESPITE THE DIFFERENCES IN EXACT
DETAIL...RAISED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FEATURE AND
THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THE MOST FAVORABLE LOCALES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD APPEARS TO BE MOHAVE COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THOUGH ACTIVITY COULD POSSIBLY STRETCH AS FAR WEST AS
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO...INYO...AND NYE COUNTIES.

A WARMUP IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECT FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH NO APPRECIABLE DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE AREA...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SCOURED OUT IS
LOW...THUS MITIGATING THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE ECMWF OUTPUTS THAT CONTINUE TO APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT
CRITERIA BY THE WEEKS END. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP INHERITED TEMPS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INDICATING A GRADUAL WARMUP TO ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FAVORING EASTERLY COMPONENTS
EXPECTED FROM 15Z-21Z BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION BY 00Z WITH SPEEDS IN THE 9-12KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS. CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THOSE STRONGER WINDS IS LOW AND
MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS 21Z OR AS LATE AS 00Z. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
TAPER OFF AFTER 3Z.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH
AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE ESPECIALLY ACROSS INYO COUNTY AND OWENS
VALLEY REGION. AFTERNOON BREEZES OF 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 21Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH 3Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF LAS VEGAS IN LINCOLN
COUNTY AND ALSO ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

UPDATE...PIERCE
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

250 AM PDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WARMUP IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECT FOR THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK...AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE RETROGRADES
WESTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH NO APPRECIABLE DRY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW PROGGED OVER THE AREA...THE
LIKELIHOOD OF LOW TO MID-LEVEL MOISTURE GETTING SCOURED OUT IS
LOW...THUS MITIGATING THE AMOUNT OF WARMING THAT WILL OCCUR AS THE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...DECIDED TO LEAN AWAY
FROM THE EMWF OUTPUTS THAT CONTINUE TO APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT
CRITERIA BY THE WEEKS END. HOWEVER...HAVE BUMPED UP INHERITED TEMPS
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INDICATING A GRADUAL WARMUP TO ABOVE
AVERAGE HIGHS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...PULLIN

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1146 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AT LEAST. COULD BE A FEW
GUSTS TO 35KTS...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAIN. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS
IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY...GENERALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY TAF SITE
WILL BE AFFECTED...BUT DID INCLUDE VCTS MENTION AT KROW. STORM
MOTION WILL BE TOWARD THE SE AT 10 TO 20KTS. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT INCLUDING GUSTY CANYON WINDS AT KABQ AND KSAF.

.PREV DISCUSSION...944 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015...
.UPDATE...
CONVECTION WANING AND SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE...THEREFORE TRIMMED BACK EVENING POPS AND REMOVED MENTION
OF STRONG STORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY
TRANSMITTED.

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MDT FRI AUG 21 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMALS. BEST
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEREAFTER...ANOTHER
SEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BOOST STORM COVERAGE ON
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF THE
STATE. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL DOWNWARD AGAIN...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
BE BELOW NORMAL AND A GOOD 15 TO 25 DEGREES COOLER AS COMPARED TO
SATURDAY. LOOKING AHEAD...AFTER A RELATIVELY ACTIVE DAY ON MONDAY
A GRADUAL WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DOMINATE MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH STORM COVERAGE WANING EACH DAY THROUGH WEEK/S END.

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTLE WAVE ALOFT/ASSOCIATED JET MAX TO TRANSLATE EAST OF THE
AREA BY EARLY EVENING. LOOKS TO BE VISUAL EVIDENCE OF SUBSIDENCE
EFFECTS IN THE IMMEDIATE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WILL NEED TO
CAREFULLY MONITOR THE FAR NE...EC/SE PLAINS NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A FAIRLY ATYPICAL SURFACE DRYLINE IN THE PROCESS OF SHARPENING
EAST OF DES MOINES TO SANTA ROSA TO FORT SUMNER LINE /SFC DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S WEST OF THE DRYLINE WHILE MID 50S
TO NEAR 60 COMMON TO THE EAST/ WITH A MORE DIFFUSE W-E GRADIENT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY FOCUS A FEW
STRONG IF NOT BRIEFLY SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING.

OTHERWISE...BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES CONTINUE OVER SC/SW ZONES
WHERE WE/LL CONTINUE TO FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS. STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY TOWARD THE SE AT 15-20 KTS...AND COULD SEE A FEW PULSE
STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS AND OF COURSE CG
LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

CONCEPTUAL MODEL WOULD ARGUE FOR A PRETTY QUIET PERIOD AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS 500MB HEIGHTS SLOWLY BUILD FROM SW TO NE. BUT THE
GFS/NAM AND NOT SURPRISINGLY HRRR REDEVELOP VERY ISOLATED QPF
OVER THE WEST ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. THIS MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO YET
ANOTHER SPEED MAX WITHIN THE BASE OF YET ANOTHER VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
TONIGHT. BEST GUESS IS WE COULD SEE SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND
VIRGA SHOWERS/SPRINKLES DURING THE OVERNIGHT BUT HIGHLY DOUBT WE
WOULD SEE A REPEAT OF EARLY MORNING T-STORMS.

GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FOCUS WILL BE ON THE
INCOMING BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL FOLLOW IN WAKE OF THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SHORTWAVE. TIMING OF THE FRONT SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS
THINKING...INTO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING PRESSING SOUTH AND
WEST OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY SUNDAY. LOOKS PRETTY
COOL/STABLE ONCE AGAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PLAINS...WITH THE FOCUS
FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIP SHIFTING WEST AND SOUTH. THE MODELS HONESTLY
LOOK A LITTLE UNDERCOOKED ON QPF FOR SUNDAY PM ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS BETWEEN THE DIVIDE AND EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN BUT THE CURRENT AIR MASS HAS NOT FULLY RECOVERED FROM THE
LAST DRYING EVENT AND NOT A TREMENDOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS BEING
USHERED IN WITH THIS FRONT. WILL SHOW AN UPWARD TREND IN POP
COVERAGE FOR SUNDAY...BUT GENERALLY NOT AS DRY AT THE NAM WOULD
SUGGEST.

WARMER ON MONDAY AND WITH ANY ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR PUSH WE EXPECT A DECENT INCREASE IN
T-STORM ACTIVITY. 500MB HIGH CENTER GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS OR PERHAPS A BIT EAST. STEERING WINDS WILL BE WEAK
BUT GENERALLY FROM N TO S...SO NOT ALL BAD NEWS FOR THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...NE AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. RIDGE ALOFT FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN TUE INTO MID-WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD LATE WEEK.
PROBABLY ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IN OUR FUTURE LATE THU OR
FRI. KJ

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN
WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST....SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS WILL
FOLLOW STORMS THAT PRODUCE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

SATURDAY WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS FAVORING HIGH TERRAIN
AREAS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHER MIN RH VALUES IN THE
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WITH 5 HAINES VALUES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT BREEZY TO MODERATE WEST NORTHWEST WINDS
DURING THE DAY.

LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...A POTENT BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
INVADE THE NORTHEAST...COOLING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL CENTRAL AND EAST WHILE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND MIN RH VALUES
TREND UPWARD CENTRAL AND WEST. EAST CANYON WINDS COULD PEAK 35 TO 45
MPH EARLY SUNDAY ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE GAPS TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. BREEZY TO
MODERATE EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
WASHES OUT.

SO FAR...MODELS LOOK TO AGREE WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONDAY AS THE GFS
HAS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE WITH STORMS FAVORING CENTRAL
AND WESTERN AREAS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
AND IS MORE BULLISH FOR ACTIVITY TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS.
BY TUESDAY...GFS HAS THE HIGH LINGERING OVER THE STATE WHILE THE
ECMWF HAS THE HIGH HOVERING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REBOUND MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE
EAST BECOMING ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDWEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES TODAY AND SATURDAY. BECOMING POOR
CENTRAL AND NORTH SUNDAY...IMPROVING IN THE EAST MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. 32

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

147 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
FAIR WEATHER AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED LAKE
EFFECT CLOUDS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORES...BUT FOR THE MOST
PART SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND SOME FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
VALLEYS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY WITH
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST THIS WEEKEND. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS WILL PROMOTE RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND
PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE ALONG WITH COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 80. OVERNIGHT LOWS SLIDE BACK INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE MILDER OVERNIGHT TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE CONFINED TO BELOW 10KFT WILL
PRECLUDE ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME. WILL GO WITH
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY MID LEVEL TROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE LINGERS FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES
SKIES REMAINING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY. COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO THE 50S...EVEN UPPER 40S INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MODELS ARE SHOWING AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP 500MB CLOSED LOW SPINNING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES
ON TUESDAY THEN LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHWESTERN QUEBEC BY
THURSDAY MORNING.

AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS EASTERN ONTARIO...IT WILL SWING A TROUGH
AXIS OVER WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
/NEAR 2SD BELOW NORMAL/ LEADING TO SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS AND A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FOLLOWING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH THEN MAY LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SYNOPTIC RAIN
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
MODELS ARE THEN CONSISTENT WITH BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BACK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEASONABLY COOL
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE COLDER AIR ALOFT. ANOTHER WAVE
THROUGH THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING A COLD FRONT CLOSE TO THE
AREA ON FRIDAY WITH SOME WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND A CHANCE OF
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE ONLY REAL CONCERN FOR AVIATION WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
RADIATION FOG THROUGH THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE AT JHW WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN A 50-50
CHANCE FOR 2SM OR LESS VSBY TOWARD DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE WILL PROBABLY REMAIN VFR...HOWEVER DID ADD A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT FOG AT IAG DUE TO A NARROWING TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AND
FORECAST LOW MOISTURE IN NAM BUFKIT AND HRRR GUIDANCE.

OTHERWISE...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS FROM MID-MORNING
TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND
BRINGING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND WAVES TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...
WITH VERY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MONDAY... BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SOME
STRONGER WINDS/WAVES AND SHOWERS.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH/FRANKLIN
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/CHURCH/FRANKLIN
SHORT TERM...WCH
LONG TERM...WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...CHURCH/FRANKLIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

106 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

POPULATED THE POPS GRIDS WITH HRRR BLENDED MODEL WHICH SEEMED TO
CAPTURE THE NARROW DRY SLOT SOUTHWEST AT THIS TIME. LOWERED
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 2 DEGREES AS TEMPS WILL BE NEARLY STEADY OR
FALL A LITTLE WEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

WINDS GENERALLY IN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA SOUTHWEST SO FAR TODAY.
WILL KEEP THE HIGH WIND WARNING GOING AS EXPECT THE GRADIENT WIND
TO INCREASE. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO FIT THE CURRENT SHOWERS. SEEING
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS NORTH CENTRAL WITH SCATTERED T. EXPECT
THE SHOWERS TO FILL IN WITH TIME WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

GIVEN SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 1130 UTC...THE 06 UTC
NAM AND NAM CONUS NEST...AND 09-10 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS...REDUCED
POPS FOR THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DRY SLOT.
HOWEVER...THESE AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY DEFORMATION
ZONE RAINFALL BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND INTO THE NIGHT.
NO CHANGES TO WIND HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE 06 UTC
GFS/NAM 0.5 KM WIND FIELDS SUGGEST 50 KT OR GREATER GUSTS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS A WIDER PORTION OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE...AN EXPANSION
OF THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INTO
THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS PLACES SOUTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE TROF WORKS ITS WAY OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TOWARDS THE PLAINS. INITIAL WAVE LIFTING AHEAD OF
THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA.

FOR TODAY...COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL
BE OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WHERE GREATEST PRESSURE RISES ARE
EXPECTED BY AROUND MID-DAY. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD EASTERLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE AREA
AS TROUGH MAKES ITS ADVANCE INTO THE AREA...WITH THE GREATEST
PRECIPITATION CHANCES/AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WILL KEEP SOME MENTION OF THUNDER IN
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH EXPECT THE STRONGER STORMS TO REMAIN
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WHERE GREATEST INSTABILITY IS NOTED AHEAD
OF THE FRONT.

FOR TONIGHT...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE EARLY EVENING OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WHEN STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES FOR THAT AREA
MOVE THROUGH. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP MIXING THE STRONGER
WINDS DOWN THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SO HAVE EXTENDED THE TIMING
OF THE WIND ADVISORY OVER THAT AREA. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION
SHIELD WILL TRACK FROM WEST TO EAST WITH CONDITIONS STARTING TO
DRY OUT OVER THE WEST IN THE EVENING. A FEW CLAPS OF THUNDER WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY EVENING...WITH ONLY SHOWERS EXPECTED
BY LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

A RETURN TO NOMINAL LATE AUGUST SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
SUITES...WILL USE A BLEND FOR ALL FIELDS. OVERALL...AFTER A COOL
AND BREEZY SUNDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SHORT
TERM...A RETURN TO RATHER NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK AS AN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST RIDGE AMPLIFIES. HOWEVER...THE TREND
IN THE 00 UTC CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RIDGE AXIS TO A BIT FURTHER
WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...RESULTING IN A COOLER...ALBEIT NEAR
NORMAL...FORECAST FOR TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEK COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST ITERATIONS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
AND MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS. DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST BRINGING STRONG AND
GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 45 KTS ACROSS WETS AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. MVFR TO LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
IMPROVING TO VFR AFTER 06Z MOST AREAS.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-
018.

UPDATE...WAA
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

935 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 923 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

A RETURN TO NOMINAL LATE AUGUST SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TODAY.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SPREADING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...LOWERING TO IFR BY THIS EVENING AND
INTO TONIGHT. VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KTS WITH
GUSTS OF 40-50KTS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-
018.

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

646 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

A RETURN TO NOMINAL LATE AUGUST SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM CDT /NOON MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
CDT /MIDNIGHT MDT/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-
034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ031>033-040-
041-043-044.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-009-017-
018.

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

MAIN IDEAS FROM PREV UPDATE ON TRACK. WARM FRONT FROM SOUTH OF
WINNIPEG TO THE ROLLA ND WITH T-STORMS INCREASING NORTH OF THIS
FRONT OVER MANITOBA. VERY SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE MODELS DO NOT
HAVE ANY LATE NIGHT CONVECTION IN SE ND/NE SD IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL
JET AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT. STILL LEFT IN THREAT IN THE 09-12Z
AS JUST TOO UNCERTAIN BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE MAY BE INHIBITOR
AS WELL AS MAIN FOCUS OF LOW LEVEL JET IS IN SE MANITOBA AND THE
OTHER MORE SO IN SE SD. EITHER WAY DO EXPECT ISOLD-SCAT SHOWERS
AND T-STORMS TO SPREAD INTO CNTRL ND/DVL REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. COVERAGE OF ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY AHD OF THE
FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION UNTIL LATE AFTN WHEN TSTMS SHOULD FORM
ALONG THE FRONT EAST OF THE RRV. WRAPAROUND RAINS BEGIN IN DVL
BASIN MID AFTN AND SPREAD EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

MINOR CHANGES WERE DONE TO THE GRIDS TO INCREASE WINDS A BIT IN SE
ND AS LOW LEVEL JET GOING GOING AND TO INCREASE DEW PTS AS THEY
ARE CLIMBING A BIT HIGHER IN SOME AREAS THAN FCST. OVERALL THOUGH
MONITORING HRRR AND OTHER VERY SHORT RANGE COVECTIVE MODELS STILL
INDICATES ABOUT A 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET INTO ERN ND OVERNIGHT...AND
RAP MODEL ESPECIALLY HAS ONE AREA OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY MOVING
INTO SE ND TO THE CENTRAL RRV 09Z-10Z PERIOD. BUT BEST MOISTURE
SATURATION IS MORE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT WHICH IS LOCATED NR THE
INTL BORDER. THUS HRRR HAS BEST COVERAGE OF ANY STORMS MORE TOWARD
WINNIPEG. ANOTHER PIECE OF A STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET OVER NEBRASKA
AND SOME MODELS BREAK OUT TSTMS IN SCNTRL SD WITH THIS. SO OVERALL
NOT SEEING CLEAR CUT SIGNS OF LATE NIGHT CONVECTION IN ERN ND/RRV
BUT STILL WAY TO MANY VARIABLES TO REMOVE. THUS CONTINUING WITH
LOW POPS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

THICKER HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE NRN RRV INTO NW MN WITH CLEAR
SKIES DVL-FARGO SOUTHWARD...THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL SMOKE. BETTER
MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE IN A BAND FROM CNTRL MONTANA ACROSS NW ND
INTO MANITOBA. IN THIS AREA IS WHERE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS
WILL BE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS WEST AND NORTH OF OUR AREA. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LATER TONIGHT TO SEE IF INCREASING 850 MB JET
COMBINED WITH 850 MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASE CAN BE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE SOME STORMS IN CNTRL ND OR INTO THE DVL REGION. HRRR
MODEL STILL SHOWING THAT POTENTIAL. SO FAR FCST OK.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 25

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY...RAIN
THEN WIND. MODELS HAVE COME INTO PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS/ECMWF VERY SIMILAR WITH ALL FIELDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A LLJ WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 30-40KT INTO NE SD
AROUND 6-9Z. THERE WILL ALSO BE A FAIRLY RAPID INCREASE TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...WITH SHOWALTERS FALLING INTO THE
-6 TO -8C RANGE ALONG WITH 850MB CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG.
THEREFORE...WILL MENTION LOW POPS IN THE SOUTH AND LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE NW FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE TONIGHT.

ON SATURDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT AND SFC LOW WILL MOVE TO NEAR
THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN THE 18-21Z TIMEFRAME...THEN RACE INTO THE
EASTERN ZONES AROUND 00-03Z. THERE WILL BE STRONG INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS WITH MLCAPE OF NEAR 3000 J/KG IF WE CAN GET SFC
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S. THE STRONGER DEEP LAYERED SHEAR
DOES LAG THE WARM SECTOR SOME...BUT GIVEN STRONG WAVE/FORCING AND
SFC CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT...EXPECT SOME SEVERE STORMS. THE
BEST COVERAGE FOR SEVERE STORMS SHOULD OCCUR EAST OF THE VALLEY.
IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NAM HAS MORE OF A CLOSED SFC
LOW NEAR KGFK AROUND 21Z...MOVING INTO NW MN THEREAFTER. SHOULD
THIS OCCUR...THEN THE TORNADO THREAT WOULD INCREASE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THIS LOW...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
THE 70S FOR THE MOST PART GIVEN CLOUDS AND THE COLD FRONT.

ON SAT NIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND EXPECT A DEFORMATION
SHOWER/RAIN BAND TO DEVELOP IN THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS
COULD GET AN INCH OR MORE OF RAIN NEAR HEAVIER PERSISTENT SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

ON SUNDAY...IT WILL BE COOL...WINDY WITH MAINLY MORNING SHOWERS
IN THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ALONG WITH
STRONG WINDS. THERE WILL BE ABOUT 45-50KT TO MIX FROM THE NW...SO
WE MAY NEED A WINDY ADVISORY HEADLINE FOR THE VALLEY AND POINTS
WEST...BUT STILL TIME TO IRON OUT THESE DETAILS OUT.

FOR MONDAY...IT WILL BE DRY AND COOL WITH TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON POSITIONING OF UPPER AIR AND SFC FEATURES THIS RUN.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA WITH THE AXIS
CENTERED OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY...AND SLOWLY DRIFT SE THRU THE
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SHIFT E THRU THE PERIOD. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES...WITH MAINLY 80S WEST
AND UPPER 70S EAST. A FEW SHORT WAVES WILL PROPAGATE THRU THE
FLOW...BRINGING A FEW CHANCES FOR PCPN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

MADE FEW CHANGES FROM 00Z TAF SUITE. KEPT TEMP GROUPS SHOWING BEST
TIME PERIOD FOR ANY CONVECTION IN THE RRV AND NW MN TAF SITES SAT
AFTN. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES...ESP FARGO...THEN
INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS DVL REGION SAT MID AFTN SPREADING EAST
SAT NIGHT. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND MAYBE IFR CIGS TO SPREAD INTO NE
ND/RRV SAT NIGHT WITH WRAPAROUND RAIN.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...RIDDLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

204 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH...THOUGH MUCH
DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS UNLIKELY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY...WITH A MUCH DRIER PERIOD
STARTING ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 2 AM...SEEING A FEW SMALL/LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP NEAR THE BLUE
RIDGE...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...AS WELL AS
AN UPPER SPEED MAX THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA ATTM. INTRODUCED
SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE AREA...MAINLY AS A NOD TO THE MESOSCALE MODELS AS MUCH AS
ANYTHING (ALTHOUGH THESE APPEAR TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY OVERDOING THE
PRECIP). MIN TEMPS SHOULD AVERAGE ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO.

AS OF 10:25 PM FRIDAY...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA WHICH MAY REFLECT SOME WEAK FORCING IN
ADVANCE OF A WEAK VORTICITY MAX THAT IS MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA.
SOME WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS.

AS OF 745 PM FRIDAY...AREA IS ENTIRELY CLEAR OF ANY RADAR ECHOES AT
THE MOMENT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUD SKIES.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY INDICATED BY CAMS WAS OVERDONE BY THE MODELS.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR NO PRECIP THROUGH 5Z AT LEAST. AFTER
5Z...A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MAY
KICK-OFF A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED AND WEAK SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN
EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA WHICH HAS SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

AS OF 510 PM FRIDAY...AREA IS CURRENTLY CLEAR OF ALL BUT THE
LIGHTEST ISOLATED SHOWERS. LATEST HRRR ALSO HAS NO NEW CONVECTION
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. CONVECTION THAT EARLIER CAMS HAD BY 18Z HAS NOT
MATERIALIZED. HAVE THUS LOWERED THE PRECIP. FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 6
HOURS.

AS OF 200 PM...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST
COAST IN A WEDGE-LIKE CONFIGURATION. SFC FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM
MIDDLE GA THRU THE SC MIDLANDS...WITH NE WINDS AND RELATIVELY DRY
DEWPTS ACRS MOST OF THE AREA. PATCHY MIDLEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACRS
MUCH OF THE CWFA RESULTING FROM A WEAK VORT MAX DRIFTING ACRS THE
AREA. THIS DECK APPEARS THINNER THAN IT DID LATE THIS MRNG...AND AS
THE VORT MAX CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST IT SHOULD FOLLOW. A SHALLOW CU
FIELD HAS QUICKLY BROKEN OUT AS SUNSHINE RETURNS...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE MTNS OF SW NC AND NE GA...AND NOW THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY. A COUPLE SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN ON RADAR TO OUR
WEST. SHORT RANGE CAM GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY OVERDONE THE STATE
OF CONVECTION THIS MORNING POSSIBLY BECAUSE THEY UNDERESTIMATED
THE RESTRICTED WARMING ASSOC WITH THE CLOUD COVER. THE HRRR HAS
TRENDED TOWARD MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE. SEEING THE RATHER WEAK
ACTIVITY UPSTREAM SUPPORTS MAINLY ISOLD RANGE POPS THIS AFTN. A
SECOND VORT MAX OVER NRN ALABAMA WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING...AND
ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE
PRESENT FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO OCCUR TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. DESPITE HIGH PRESSURE ALREADY HAVING BEGUN TO SETTLE INTO THE
AREA AS OF THIS AFTERNOON...APPRECIABLE DRYING DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL
TOMORROW. ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS THAT OCCUR THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT ARE
LIKELY TO PRODUCE HIGH RAINFALL RATES. MIN TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE CLIMO TONIGHT WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...GIVEN THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND MOIST FLOW INTO THE BLUE RIDGE.

SUBSIDENCE CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CONVECTION ISOLATED OR
TOTALLY AT BAY OVER MUCH OF THE NC PIEDMONT ON SATURDAY...AND
SCATTERED AT BEST AROUND THE FRINGES OF THE AIRMASS /IN THE MTNS
AND SAVANNAH VALLEY/. THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR ALOFT IMPLIES
GUSTY/STRONG WINDS MAY BE OF A BIT MORE CONCERN...AND HEAVY RAIN
A BIT LESS. MAX TEMPS AGAIN WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT FRIDAY...THE SHORT TERM FCST PERIOD INITIALIZES
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE UPPER PATTERN HIGHLIGHTED BY AN EASTERN
GULF ANTICYCLONE...WHILE A SHORTWAVE TROF SLIDES THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH A DEEPER LONGWAVE TROF ADVECTING OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SFC...RELATIVELY DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA CONSEQUENT OF
ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPS.
MODELS HINT AT ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT FCST
INITIALIZATION ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER MAINLY FOCUSED OVER
THE NC/GA HIGH TERRAIN AND THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY.
EXPECTING THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TO ADVECT FURTHER EAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT WARRANTING MENTIONABLE POPS THROUGH MORNING OVER THE
WEST...SPREADING EAST AND INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THUS THE
FCST FEATURES CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ENTERING
THE NC HIGH TERRAIN LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING MONDAY.
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS WILL BE OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT HOWEVER WITH THE LATEST THE NAM COMING IN MORE SO
THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THUS...WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION
IN THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD/ALONG THE FRONT.
FORTUNATELY...THE MOST ENHANCED UPPER WIND FIELD WILL BE WELL TO
THE NORTH ALONG WITH THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW. THEREFORE SOUNDINGS
FAVOR MORE OF A HAIL AND HYDRO THREAT AT THIS TIME...WITH EVEN THAT
BEING ISOLATED. POPS ON MONDAY WILL FEATURE CHANCE LEVELS OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN TAPERING TO SLIGHT CHANCE LEVELS EAST ALONG THE I77
CORRIDOR. AS FOR HURRICANE DANNY...LATEST ADVISORY ISSUANCE FROM
NHC INDICATES SOME WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS IT ENCOUNTERS DRIER
AIR WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF PUERTO
RICO BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF A TROPICAL STORM.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL SLOWLY MODERATE...WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS FCST ON SUNDAY AND HIGHS JUST ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OF 200 PM FRIDAY...OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
IS ABOVE AVERAGE. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY...WITH
A SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE STILL IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
RAPIDLY DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE...THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWFA AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COINCIDING WITH
PEAK HEATING...DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DRIVE SOME LEVEL OF
DRYING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY ARRIVES. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT IS UNIMPRESSIVE ELSEWHERE. THOUGH THERE
IS SOME QPF RESPONSE AS THE FRONT PASSES...A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE
AND LESS THAN THRILLING SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD KEEP CHANCES OF
CONVECTION TO NO MORE THAN CHANCE OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS...AND
HIGH-END CHANCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

AN UNUSUALLY QUIET PERIOD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE END OF SUMMER...WILL
ARRIVE AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES THE CWA. A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND PWATS DROP TO WELL BELOW NORMAL. A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT IS MAINTAINED IN THE SURFACE WINDS FOR ALMOST
THE ENTIRE MEDIUM RANGE...SO KEEP A "SILENT 10" POP IN EACH
AFTERNOON FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE USED
BORDERING COLUMBIA`S AREA...WITH ANY CHANCE AT CONVECTION FOLLOWING
THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN. THIS INFLUENCE WILL BE REFLECTED IN A SLIGHT
MOISTENING DUE TO AN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE. MAX
AND MIN TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT KCLT AND ELSEWHERE...SMALL/ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEVELOPING THROUGH MUCH OF THE EARLY MORNING...MAINLY NEAR
KHKY AND PERHAPS KCLT. HOWEVER...ONLY FELT THE NEED TO INCLUDE A
VCSH AT KHKY...AS PART OF THE IMPETUS FOR THESE SHOWERS WILL BE A
MOIST EASTERLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW. SPEAKING OF WHICH...THIS
AND ATTENDANT POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
FOR THIS PERIOD. THERE IS NO REAL DEFINITIVE CONSENSUS IN GUIDANCE
SOURCES AS TO HOW LOW CIGS WILL GET LATER THIS MORNING...BUT FELT
STRONGLY ENOUGH ABOUT THE POTENTIAL TO INCLUDE MVFR CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS BY AROUND DAYBREAK. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE FOG POTENTIAL
NEAR KAVL...BUT AS USUAL...THIS IS NOT CLEAR CUT...ESP IN LIGHT OF
AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS THAT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE NC MTNS BY
AROUND 09Z. THEREFORE OPTED FOR CATEGORICAL MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH
TEMPOS FOR LOW MVFR CONDITIONS THERE TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OTHERWISE...FORECASTING THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON IS EVERY BIT AS PROBLEMATIC AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...WHEN
GUIDANCE DEPICTED A STRONG CONSENSUS OF SCT/NUMEROUS CONVECTION
ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND THE NC MTNS... YET VIRTUALLY NOTHING
OCCURRED. THE SAME HINDRANCES WILL EXIST TODAY...NAMELY IN THE FORM
OF MORNING CLOUD COVER THAT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. NEVERTHELESS...
WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE ANTICIPATED THIS
AFTERNOON...OPTED TO INCLUDE A VCSH AT KAVL. THE OTHER TERMINALS
WILL RECEIVE CLOSER SCRUTINY FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE 12Z
TAFS...ALTHOUGH IT DOES APPEAR THAT KCLT WILL MOST LIKELY BE FREE
OF CONVECTION THIS PM.

OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND POTENTIAL FOR MORNING
FOG/STRATUS...ESP IN THE MTN VALLEYS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA BY
TUE...LIKELY BRINGING AN END TO CONVECTIVE AND MORNING RESTRICTION
CHANCES FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

06-12Z 12-18Z 18-24Z 00-06Z
KCLT HIGH 92% MED 72% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 93% MED 78% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KAVL LOW 55% MED 74% HIGH 81% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 94% MED 66% HIGH 87% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 93% MED 75% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 81% MED 68% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LEV
NEAR TERM...JDL/WIMBERLEY/WJM
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...LEV
AVIATION...JDL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

922 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
SOUTH BUT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

THE NEWLY ADDED WEATHER PARAMETER FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IS PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG MAINLY SOUTH OF A CAMPBELLTON TO
GONZALES TO LA GRANGE LINE. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
ARE IN THE MID 70S AND FORECAST TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND TONIGHT.
BOTH NAM AND GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR VCT FOR THE 09Z AND 12Z
TIME PERIOD SUGGEST THIS OUTCOME. MATCHING WELL WITH CRP.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW/SCT CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOCTURNAL STRATUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEAR
KAUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES WERE TOO SMALL TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS OR STORMS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...MAY SEE A STRAY ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM IN LAVACA AND/OR DEWITT COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
AMPLE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE ARE PRESENT IN THE COASTAL PLAINS
FOR ISOLATED HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS BUT ARE LACKING MUCH OTHER THAN
HEATING TO GET PARCELS OFF THE SURFACE. NOT MUCH CAPPING IS
CURRENTLY PRESENT BUT LOW TO MID LEVEL WARMING WAS ADVERTISED IN
THE RAP SOUNDINGS SO THIS SHOULD STAY ISOLATED. ONLY MENTIONED
SOME ISO THUNDER WITH SUB 20 PERCENT POPS IN THIS VICINITY AS A
RESULT.

ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN MEXICO AND IN THE BIG BEND AREA SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM
RESPONSIBLE IS PROGGED TO BEGIN KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP MONDAY
MORNING AND SHOULD RESULT IN SOME CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA MONDAY. NOTHING HAZARDOUS
IS EXPECTED THOUGH.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE PROSPECT FOR CHC POPS
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MS RIVER
VALLEY AND PROVIDE A SIMILAR PATTERN TO A FEW THIS SUMMER THAT
HAVE RESULTED IN APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR THE CWA. AS THE COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES WESTWARD INTO EAST TEXAS...MODELS ARE SHOWING
VARYING AMOUNTS OF QPF GENERATION...MOSTLY DUE TO DISAGREEMENT IN
AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND FRONTAL STRENGTH. THE MOST BULLISH MODEL AS
FAR AS QPF GENERATION GOES IS THE ECMWF AS IT CAPTURES REMNANT
MOISTURE UNDER THE RIDGE DUE TO THE FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. THE GFS DOES NOT PRESCRIBE TO THIS AT ALL AND THE NAM
GIVES AN EASTERN PREFERENCE WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE PLENTIFUL. HAVE
FAVORED THE NAM DEPICTION THIS PACKAGE AND WPC QPF SEEMS TO AGREE.
THEREFORE OPTED FOR THE CHC POPS TO MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I35 CORRIDOR AND NORTH OF THE I10 CORRIDOR. MAY NEED SOME
ADJUSTING FARTHER SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT CAN PUSH A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH...WHICH IS POSSIBLE GIVEN PREVIOUS SYSTEMS WE HAVE SEEN SO
FAR.

BEYOND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS IN
AGREEMENT IN BOTH EURO AND GFS MODELS. GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW
IMPRESSIVE AGREEMENT FROM PERTURBATION TO PERTURBATION AS WELL FOR
OVER 100 HOURS OUT. CONTINUE TO BE SKEPTICAL OF EURO ADVERTISEMENT
OF QPF STRETCHING FROM THE GULF INTO THE CWA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AN EAGLE EYE WILL ENSUE ON THE ECMWF ENTERING THE WEEK FOR
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 99 77 100 75 / - 20 - 30 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 74 99 75 99 73 / - 20 - 30 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 75 100 74 / - - - 20 -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 97 75 98 73 / - 20 10 30 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 77 101 76 / - - 0 10 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 74 / - 20 10 30 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 99 74 99 73 / - - 0 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 76 99 76 99 74 / - - - 30 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 99 76 99 74 / - - 10 30 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 78 99 77 99 76 / - - - 20 -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 100 76 100 76 / - - 0 20 -

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...HAMPSHIRE
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

614 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW/SCT CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA AND THIS TREND SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DRY
AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS TOMORROW MORNING AND THUS NOT EXPECTING ANY
NOCTURNAL STRATUS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION NEAR
KAUS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT PROBABILITIES WERE TOO SMALL TO
MENTION IN THE CURRENT TAF PACKAGE. FUTURE ISSUANCES MAY NEED TO
INCLUDE A MENTION OF VICINITY SHOWERS OR STORMS. OTHERWISE...SOUTH
OR SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF
THE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

318 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Sunday)

A few diurnal thunderstorms have developed over the Davis Mountains
this afternoon with only sparse cu field and a few high clouds over
West Central TX. Temperatures have warmed into the mid/upper 90s
with dewpoints holding in the low/mid 60s. Generally quiet weather
conditions are expected tonight across the area with the cu field
dissipating with the setting sun. The HRRR has been insistent on
developing some convection west of San Angelo late this afternoon,
but this solution has been dismissed as an outlier, especially given
the lack of a focused cu field this afternoon. Tonight, expect
temperatures to drop into the mid 70s with southerly winds remaining
in the 6-12 mph range. Winds could become gusty for a few hours
tonight, especially in the higher terrain as the low-level jet sets
up.

A weak cold front will move south into the Big Country on Sunday.
The general consensus is that this front will move as far south as a
Sterling City to Eastland line by early afternoon, likely stalling
out for the remainder of the day. Temperatures are expected to be a
few degrees cooler (low/mid 90s) behind this boundary, with highs
likely in the mid/upper 90s to the south. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon in the
vicinity of this cold front. While organized severe weather is not
anticipated, high cloud bases will yield a potential microburst
environment.

Johnson

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Saturday)

A weak cold front will be located across the Big Country Sunday
evening, then slowly move south. Along and behind the front,
isolated to scattered showers will be possible, with the best chance
north of Interstate 20. The front will slowly progress south
reaching the Concho Valley/Heartland Monday morning. The front will
serve as the focus for additional isolated showers and thunderstorms
on Monday, mainly north of a Mertzon, to Menard, to Mason line.

Much of the rest of the extended forecast will be characterized by
an upper level ridge centered over the Desert Southwest, with West
Central Texas in northwest to north flow aloft. The forecast
generally looks to remain dry, but given the northerly flow aloft,
any embedded upper level shortwave troughs (disturbances) could
result in at least isolated convection for portions of the area. The
first opportunity for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday as
disturbance in the northwest flow aloft traverses the area. This is
depicted most aggressively by the ECMWF, with the best PoPs across
the eastern half of the area. The next opportunity for rainfall will
be Friday into next weekend, as another cold front approaches the
area. The best PoPs look to be across the Big Country at this time.
In conclusion, the timing and strength of any disturbances is hard
to pinpoint this far in advance, but the overall theme for the
upcoming week is for dry conditions to persist.

Temperatures through much of the upcoming work week will be above
normal. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 90s, although a
few locations may approach the century mark, especially during the
first part of the week. Overnight lows will generally be in the 70s,
with a few locations dropping into the upper 60s.

Daniels

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 76 97 73 94 / 5 20 30 20
San Angelo 76 101 74 98 / 5 10 10 20
Junction 75 99 74 98 / 5 5 5 10

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Johnson/Daniels

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Low stratus has eroded across the area, resulting in VFR
conditions. South winds have increased to 12-16 kts, with gusts
over 20 kts at times. Expect a few high-based Cu this afternoon,
dissipating around sunset. The HRRR model is developing a few
thunderstorms over the western Concho Valley by late afternoon,
but remains the outlier with dry conditions anticipated through
the period. A cold front will move south into the Big Country late
on Sunday, shifting winds to the northeast.

Johnson

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

MVFR stratus will affect the southern terminals this morning,
otherwise VFR conditions will prevail today. Could see an
isolated shower or thunderstorm develop late this afternoon across
the southern terminals but coverage expected to be too limited
to mention at this time. Stratus is not expected to be as
widespread early Sunday morning and will only include a scattered
group across the southern terminals for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)

Hot and dry conditions will prevail today as the upper level ridge
dominates. Some early morning low clouds will give way to mostly
sunny skies, with breezy south winds developing. Temperatures today
will be slightly above normal, with afternoon highs topping out in
the mid and upper 90s, coolest across far southern counties.
Tonight will be dry and warm, with some low clouds developing
across southern counties after midnight. Expect overnight lows in
the mid and upper 70s.

LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)

An upper trough will move east into the upper Midwest by Sunday
morning, with associated cold front moving south into the Big
Country Sunday afternoon and evening. The weak cold front will
sag south into our central counties Sunday night before stalling.
Showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and behind the
front. Carrying 20-30 PoPs for the Big Country area along/north
of I-20 Sunday afternoon and evening, with slight chance PoP
expanding south into the northern Heartland and Concho Valley
Sunday night.

With presence of the weak boundary on Monday along with sufficient
instability and moisture, have 20-30 PoPs for showers and
thunderstorms with the higher rain chance northeast of a
Sweetwater to Brownwood line.

The models look to be somewhat in flip-flop mode for rain chances
on Tuesday. The 00Z GFS is much drier than the ECMWF, and what`s
left of the boundary by that time will be positioned across our
north or northeast counties. With collaborative considerations,
carrying slight chance PoP for our area on Tuesday, with low
confidence in any significant shower/thunderstorm activity.

Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler across the Big Country
on Monday and Tuesday, with little temperature change expected
for the southern half of our area. Highs in the mid to upper 90s
are expected Wednesday through Friday.

The upper high is progged to shift slowly southwest across New
Mexico on Wednesday, and into southern Arizona on Thursday. As
this upper high retreats to the Desert Southwest late in the week,
northwest flow aloft will develop over our area, allowing
shortwaves to drop southeast into the southern Plains and Texas.
The first of these may affect our area Thursday night into Friday.
With collaborative considerations, and awaiting model consistency,
have not added PoPs yet.

Although just beyond the scope of this forecast, a more potent
shortwave trough is progged to drop south into our area next
weekend along with a cold front, which would result in more
substantial rain chances.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 97 76 97 72 / 5 5 20 30
San Angelo 99 75 100 73 / 5 5 10 10
Junction 96 74 98 73 / 5 0 5 5

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

119 AM CDT SAT AUG 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT. RADAR IMAGES
INDICATED ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS. CEILINGS
WERE NEAR 3400FT AT KPIL. VISIBILITIES WERE NEAR 5SM WITH LIGHT
RAIN AND FOG AT KPIL. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF
TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING EVEN AS LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE AREA. A WEAK INVERTED 500MB TROUGH
ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO MAY ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SAT MORNING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...A STABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PROVIDE A VFR SKY MUCH OF THE
NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE REGION. SOME MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
CENTRAL REGIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH KMFE
POSSIBLY BEING IMPACTED FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST A MODERATE CHANCE OF MVFR A FEW HOURS EITHER SIDE OF
SUNRISE ALONG THE HIGHWAY 69C/281 CORRIDOR. THERE IS LOWER
PROBABILITY AND LOWER CONFIDENCE OF MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING EAST IN
THE VICINITY OF KHRL AND KBRO. VFR TO PREVAIL SATURDAY. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS
BETWEEN 20-25KNOTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE AREA PUMPING IN HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA. IN FACT...12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWED PWATS OF 2.3 INCHES. EARLY
MORNING MID/HIGH CLOUDS STUNTED DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE
MID/LOWER VALLEY SO ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURE GRIDS DOWN AND
SHAVED A DEGREE OF THE HIGHS. STILL EXPECT 90S TODAY WITH UPPER 90S
OUT IN OUR WESTERN SECTIONS. CUMULUS FIELD IS SLOW TO DEVELOP AND IS
NOW BECOMING AGITATED ACROSS THE RANCHLANDS OF BROOKS AND EASTERN
JIM HOGG COUNTIES. IN THE VALLEY...JUST NOW BEGINNING TO SEE CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT UNDERNEATH REMAINING MID/HIGH CLOUD DECKS. MOS GUIDANCE
HAS LOWERED POPS IN THE VALLEY AND HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND HAVE LEFT
INHERITED POPS AS IS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS DEVELOPMENT
IMMINENT IN THE RANCHLANDS WITH SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING WESTWARD WITH
TIME INTO OUR WESTERN SECTIONS EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING
BY MID EVENING. OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS BUT SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS LAST NIGHT. LOW/MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BY DAYBREAK
HOLDING UP LOW TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO 80 DEGREES IN THE VALLEY.

UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS SATURDAY AND BEING REPLACED BY EXPANDING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING AND LOWER PWATS LEADING TO LOWER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TIME HEIGHTS AND CROSS
SECTIONS DEPICT MAINLY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH A DRYING MID LEVEL
COLUMN. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS SATURDAY BUT SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED. THERE WILL AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS AROUND
100 IN THE FAR WEST TO MID 90S IN THE LOWER VALLEY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...THE 500 MB RIDGING WILL
BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS TROFFING BUILDS
OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THE GFS PRODUCES A DRIER SOLUTION VERSUS
THE ECMWF WITH THE EURO MODEL BRINGING A PRETTY STRONG 500 MB VORT
MAX AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CRANKS OUT MUCH HIGHER
POPS FOR THE RGV AROUND MIDWEEK. THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY
OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS SO AM A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THE WETTER
ECMWF SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. WILL SEE IF FUTURE RUNS OF THE ECMWF
MAINTAIN THE WET BIAS BEFORE JUMPING TO HIGHER POPS IN THE LONGER
RANGE. SO WILL GO WITH SLGT CHC POPS AT THIS TIME. SINCE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IN THE LONGER RANGE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS A BIT
LOWER TODAY WILL OPT FOR A GENERAL BLEND OF THE GFS MEX MOS TEMPS
AND THE ECMWF TEMPS.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS WERE NEAR 3 FEET WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS NEAR 14 KNOTS AT BUOY020 THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AND LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
WEST TEXAS WILL KEEP A STEADY SOUTHEAST WIND GOING ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND AROUND AND
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL DRIFT SOUTH
OVER THE GULF COAST AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGHOUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THIS FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARDS THE PGF WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS
THE BAY AND GULF WATERS. NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/52

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

1153 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015

.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/

Latest model data indicate stratus still likely for much of West
Central Texas tonight. Based on the latest satellite imagery,
stratus onset for Junction and Brady may be an hour earlier than
previous thinking. Thus, slight timing adjustments for those two
terminals appear best this cycle. Return to VFR still looks
likely around noon tomorrow.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

UPDATE...

Made some minor updates to decrease pops down to 20 percent
over Haskell and Throckmorton counties and extend 20-30 pops
slightly farther into Sterling and Irion counties for tonight.
Latest HRRR models indicates storms near Lamesa may move into
extreme NW portions of the Concho Valley before dissipating.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

Look for stratus to develop across much of West Central Texas
overnight. Models indicate MVFR ceilings are likely, mainly south
of Interstate 20, by sunrise tomorrow morning. Conditions should
return to VFR around noon tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Skies were mostly sunny across West Central Texas this afternoon
with south winds of 10 to 15 mph. The conditions were humid with
dewpoints in the 60s at 19Z. Temperatures across the area were in
the lower to mid 90s. Keeping an eye on a vort max (per WV
imagery) over southeast Colorado, with subtle trough axis
extending south into west Texas.

The combination of mid and upper ascent from the upper level
feature, moderate instability and a surface trough will lead to
scattered thunderstorms developing across the Texas Panhandle and
South Plains late this afternoon and evening. All of the
convective allowing models (TX Tech WRF, HRRR and 4km NMM)
indicate scattered cells merging into a few small convective
complexes and moving east-southeast toward western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas this evening into the early morning hours. The Big
Country has the best chance of seeing thunderstorms tonight,
mainly after 02Z. A few storms may produce strong wind gusts along
with dangerous lightning. Going with slight chance to chance Pops
generally north of Sterling City to Brownwood line for tonight,
with the highest numbers north of the I-20 corridor. Lows will be
70 to 75.

For Saturday, going with a dry and hot forecast as low level
southerly flow will persist. Highs will be 95 to 100. There will
be widespread low clouds across much of the area during the
morning, mostly dissipating by 17Z.

LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Generally quiet weather conditions are anticipated Saturday night.
The low-level jet will intensify by mid-evening, keeping southerly
winds up at 10-15 mph overnight. This will help maintain a moist
boundary layer and keep overnight lows in the mid 70s. We may also
see low stratus develop over the Hill Country, but its northward
extent should remain limited. A cold front will move south across
the South Plains early Sunday and is expected to move into the Big
Country during the afternoon hours. Temperatures across the Big
Country will depend on how fast (and how far south) the front
advances on Sunday afternoon, but for now it appears that highs
will be in the mid to upper 90s across most of the area.

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms, mainly along and
north of the front (across the Big Country), Sunday afternoon.
This boundary is forecast to move slowly south Sunday night and
early Monday, eventually stalling between I-10 and I-20. Again,
the best rain chances will be focused along and north of the
front. However, with an east-northeast steering flow, slight
chance PoPs were warranted farther south and west of the boundary,
covering most of the CWA. Temperatures should be a few degrees
cooler on Monday, and may need to be lowered a few degrees
further.

Rain chances will continue areawide on Tuesday as the quasi-
stationary front persists over the CWA. Temperatures should again
be in the vicinity of climatology with lows in the low/mid 70s
and highs in the mid 90s. By midweek, the subtropical ridge is
expected to become the dominate synoptic feature over the High
Plains. This should result in dry conditions Wednesday and
Thursday, with temperatures likely moving back into the mid/upper
90s. Both the ECMWF and GFS indicate a fairly potent shortwave
moving southeast into the Southern Plains Thursday night into
Friday. This could result in additional rain chances, but the
forecast was left dry for now. Will continue to watch how this
feature is handled by subsequent model runs.

Johnson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 73 98 75 96 / 20 5 5 20
San Angelo 73 100 75 99 / 10 5 0 10
Junction 73 97 75 98 / 10 5 0 5

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

A RATHER DEEP UPPER LOW FOR LATE AUGUST WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF
LAKE SUPERIOR EARLY THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT BROUGHT THE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO PARTS OF THE AREA
YESTERDAY WAS WELL OFF TO OUR EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SITUATED
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES UNDER THIS
LARGE FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM HAVE DROPPED INTO THE MIDDLE 40S OVER
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL GRADUALLY EDGE EAST TODAY WITH THE RATHER TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS HIGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO THE FORECAST AREA AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WE SHOULD MIX DOWN FROM AROUND
6000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME GUSTS APPROACHING
30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WITH THE STEEP
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP UPPER TROF ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, MODELS SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TO
OUR NORTH, WHICH SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS OFF THE RAP AND HRRR CONTINUE TO
INDICATE MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUD COVER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE NORTH. BASED ON PROJECTED MIXING HEIGHTS AND 850 TEMPS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AT LEAST INTO THE MID
AFTERNOON HOURS, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE KEEPS THE WEATHER BENIGN FOR MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. COOLER
TEMPS AGAIN TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE 70S
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH WEAK WIND PATTERN UNDER THE HIGH. THE TEMPS
WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT SLOWLY
TRENDING WARMER. THE WARM TREND WILL BE ENHANCED AT THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST AND THE
SFC WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT ON FRIDAY.
ECMWF IS STILL MORE GENEROUS WITH THE QPF AND THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE AND DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM FRIDAY NIGHT AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. GFS STARTING TO COME AROUND AS WELL, ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT VARIABILITY IN BOTH MODELS. THE MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND LACK OF CONSISTENCY IS EVEN REFLECTED IN THE
SUPERBLEND AS THE POPS ARE RELATIVELY LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE 06Z
TAFS, UNDER ADVANCING HIGH SURFACE PRESSURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE INDICATING SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CUMULUS
THICKENING NEAR OUR NORTHERN TAF SITES AS THE UPPER LOW ROTATES TO
THE SOUTHEAST FROM W ONTARIO INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. WE
COULD SEE PERIODS OF BKN045 FOR PIA, BMI, CMI LATER AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE GUSTY W-NW WINDS THAT
INCREASE BY 15Z. MIXING HEIGHTS LOOK DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX 20-25KT
WINDS TO THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE I-74 TERMINAL SITES. HAVE
INCREASED THE GUSTS ACROSS THE NORTH TO 22-24KT, WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 12-14KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW 10KT BY SUNSET.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CROSSING EAST KENTUCKY WITH A
DISTINCT WIND SHIFT NOTED AS WELL AS MUCH DRIER AIR INBOUND.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE TEMPORARILY HOLDING WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF DRY BULB READINGS AT MOST SITES. IN ADDITION TO THE
SPOTTY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT...PATCHY FOG IS NOTED IN A FEW
OF THE OBS AND WEB CAMS EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
ARE TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WHILE AHEAD OF IT
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE REPORTS ARE THE RULE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT THE STRONG CLOSED LOW
PASSING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THR GREAT LAKES FROM THIS MORNING
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH THE HEART OF THE TROUGH...WHILE
LOW HEIGHTS DESCEND OVER THE STATE AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MID
WEEK OWING TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE DEEP SYSTEM PASSING TO THE
NORTH. GIVEN THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL
BLEND FOR SPECIFICS WITH SIGNIFICANT INPUT FROM THE HRRR IN THE
NEAR TERM AND ALSO THE NAM12 INTO THE DAY...TUESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE FRONT AND ITS LIMITED CONVECTION
STEADILY MOVING THROUGH THE REST OF THE CWA AND OUT OF IT BY
12-14Z. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG...
SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ALLOWING FOR A PLEASANT AND
QUITE COMFORTABLE DAY. IN FACT...THE WEATHER WILL BE NEAR PERFECT
FOR MOST FOLKS THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND AS LOW HUMIDITY AND COOL
CONDITIONS GIVE US A NICE TASTE OF FALL. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW 50S MOST PLACES...WITH A FEW UPPER 40S NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BY DAWN TUESDAY...IF THE VALLEYS MANAGE TO
DECOUPLE AND RADIATE WELL. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AND AT
LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CAP A GREAT START TO THE WEEK ON
TUESDAY. ONLY THE NEARNESS OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP THE SKIES
FROM BEING CLOUD FREE DURING THIS PERIOD.

USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE INITIATING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. DID
MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO LOWS TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS. AS FOR POPS...HAD THEM IN THE MID RANGE FOR CHANCES
THROUGH 12Z BEFORE DROPPING THEM TO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS BY
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THESE VALUES ARE
IN LINE WITH OR A BIT LOWER THAN MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

THERE IS REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS DOMINATING THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT OFF TO THE NE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE AMPLIFIED FLOW BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR RETURN FLOW TO USHER WARMER...MORE HUMID AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY BY LATE SUNDAY. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND BUT WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH
LOWS DIPPING INTO THE 50S AT NIGHT AND AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80. SOME VALLEY LOCATIONS COULD EVEN SEE THE
UPPER 40S WEDNESDAY MORNING. STARTING FRIDAY...TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY
WARM EACH DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID 80S ON SUNDAY...WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

CONVECTION IS CROSSING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS MORNING
FROM WEST TO EAST JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL BRING A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR STORM TO ALL THE TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT MOST SITES WILL LIKELY ESCAPE THE PRIME
EFFECTS OF ANY CONVECTION...REMAINING VFR...OR WITH A BRIEF MVFR
PERIOD. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...THOUGH...DO EXPECT A FEW HOURS
OF MVFR OR IFR CIGS AT ALL SITES THROUGH DAWN. CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING SUNRISE WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING BY LATE MORNING TO ALL LOCATIONS. VFR WX THEN
CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO MID MORNING...OUTSIDE OF THE
VICINITY OF ANY STORM AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS WITH THE
IMMEDIATE FRONT. LATER...DURING THE HEART OF THE DAY...
MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

1258 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 455 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

LATEST AMDAR DATA OUT OF KSDF INDICATE A FAIRLY STOUT CAP AT 700
MB...MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT RUC FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
THIS HOUR THAN THE NAM. THAT SAME MODEL...AS WELL AS THE LATEST HRRR
TRY TO GET A SMALL LINE OF SCATTERED STORMS INTO OUR NORTH AND
NORTHEAST AFTER 23Z...CLOSE TO THE COLD FRONT. HAVE TRIMMED POPS
SOME TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS AS
WELL AS NEAR THE SURFACE COULD MEAN SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS OUT OF
THESE STORMS.

.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY
MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, JUST TO
THE NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE MAIN QUESTION FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WILL BE WHETHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND
HOW STRONG THESE STORMS WILL BE. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 23-
0Z ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MOVE EASTWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE WILL BE A CORRIDOR OF
INSTABILITY WITH 1000+ J/KG MUCAPE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL KY AND
SOUTHERN IN. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE BETTER EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF
POTENTIALLY 30 KNOTS OR SO ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA. THIS WILL WEAKEN
QUICKLY AFTER 0Z AND THE INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE. THEREFORE, THERE
IS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP. THE THREAT FROM ANY STRONGER
STORMS WOULD BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY INTO THE EVENING AS WE LOSE THE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
THEREFORE, THINK MUCH OF CENTRAL KY WILL ONLY SEE SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE KEPT COVERAGE FAIRLY LOW AS WELL.

STORMS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY 06Z OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT. SKIES TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT SHOULD
BE MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S
AND WILL DEPEND SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAST THE COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND
THE FRONT. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER IN THE UPPER
70S WITH LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
ISSUED AT 305 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL BRING
COOL, UNSEASONABLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUES-THU. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. SOME OF
THE COLDEST LOCATIONS COULD TOUCH THE UPPER 40S WED MORNING.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, THIS PATTERN WILL BREAK
DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW EXITS CANADA TO THE EAST RESULTING IN A LESS
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE CONUS. WARM AIR WILL PUSH BACK NORTH
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FRI-SUN. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE THROUGH THE 60S. BY THE WEEKEND WE MAY SEE A SHOT AT SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS DEPENDING ON IF WE ENTER MORE OF A NW FLOW WITH MCS`S
(GFS SOLN) OR IF A STRONG RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH MAY LEAVE US MORE DRY AND WARMER (ECMWF SOLN).

.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 1257 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

SHOWERS/VCTS THAT ARE IMPACTING LEX AT THIS HOUR WILL BE EAST BY THE
TIME THIS TAF CYCLE GOES VALID. COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY PASSED
SDF/BWG AND WILL QUICKLY BE PASSING LEX IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS.
EXPECT AN HOUR OR TWO OF GUSTY NW WINDS WITH FROPA, WITH A STEADY NW
WIND BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH SETTLING IN THEREAFTER. A VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF SCT/BKN CLOUDS BETWEEN 2-3 K FEET MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY FROPA
AT LEX.

OTHERWISE, EXPECT STEADY WNW THROUGH MONDAY BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLAT CU AROUND 3-4 K
FEET. SKIES ARE CLEAR LATER TONIGHT WITH WITH WINDS GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OR CALM.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.........RJS
SHORT TERM.....EER
LONG TERM......AMS
AVIATION.......BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

459 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

00Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SLOW MOVING CLOSED
LO OVER NW ONTARIO JUST TO THE NW OF THUNDER BAY. DEEP CYC FLOW ARND
THIS FEATURE AND ABUNDANT MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS
RESULTING IN A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER AS WELL AS SOME SHOWERS OVER
THE UPR LKS. 00Z H85 TEMP AS LO AS 4C AT INL...RELATIVE TO WRN LK
WATER TEMPS AS HI AS 15-17C...IS ADDING A LK ENHANCED COMPONENT TO
THE PCPN. WV IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A SHRTWV ROTATING ARND MAIN
CLOSED LO IS SLIDING ESEWD INTO THE UPR LKS AND DRAGGING THE DEEPER
MSTR TO THE NW TOWARD UPR MI. STRONG WNW WINDS AT H925-85 WITHIN THE
LLVL THERMAL TROF ARE ALSO CAUSING GUSTY SFC WINDS UP TO 30-35 KTS
OVER MAINLY WRN LK SUP AND AT EXPOSED LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORE.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

TODAY...AS THE SHRTWV NOW MOVING THRU WRN LK SUP CONTINUES TO THE E
AND DEEP MSTR SHOWN ON THE 00Z INL RAOB IS DRAGGED OVER UPR MI IN
THE PRESENCE OF DEEP CYC W SLOWLY VEERING NW FLOW...EXPECT NMRS
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW HALF OF UPR MI.
THE MORE NMRS SHOWERS WL SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY
AS WELL AS THE FCST H925 FLOW VEERS TO A MORE ONSHORE WNW DIRECTION
FOLLOWING LO PRES TROF PASSAGE. SINCE WINDS OVER THE ERN PART OF THE
LK WL BE RELATIVELY WEAK IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROF AND THERMAL
TROFFING WL ACCENTUATE THE LLVL LAPSE RATES...OPTED TO INCLUDE A
SCHC OF WATERSPOUTS UNDER THE SHOWERS WHERE WATER TEMPS ARE AT LEAST
55 TO 60. STRONG WINDS AND SOME DAYTIME HEATING WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
THE DEEPER MSTR WL ALSO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OVER THE
SCENTRAL DESPITE DOWNSLOPE NATURE OF THE LLVL FLOW. EXPECT HI TEMPS
IN THE 50S TODAY THAT MAY BREAK SOME DAILY RECORD LO MAXIMUMS.
EXPECT A HI SWIM RISK TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES OF ALGER COUNTY
AS THE FLOW BECOMES INCRSGLY ONSHORE AND WAVE HGTS INCREASE.

TNGT...AS THE CLOSED LO JUST N OF THE NE END OF LK SUP AT 00Z SHIFTS
SLOWLY TO THE E TNGT...SLOWLY HGT RISES/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC WL
DOMINATE. DESPITE THIS NEGATIVE DYNAMIC FORCING AND SLOWLY
MODERATING H85 TEMPS TO ARND 6-7C...PERSISTENT CYC NW FLOW AND DEEP
MSTR WL MAINTAIN AT LEAST LIKELY LK ENHANCED SHOWERS POPS IN THE
FAVORED AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF LK SUP. THESE SHOWERS WL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD OVER THE ERN CWA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING CLOSED LO AND
WHERE SOME UPSTREAM OFF LK NIPIGON MAY HAVE AN IMPACT. CLD
COVER...SLOWLY MODERATING H85 TEMPS AND GUSTY NW WINDS /H925 WINDS
NEAR 30 KTS/ SUGGEST THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL WL BE RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL MOVE TO E
OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE. GUSTY NW WINDS AND LAKE
ENHANCED/UPSLOPE RAIN WILL RESULT MAINLY TUE...BUT SHOWERS WILL
LINGER INTO WED MORNING BEFORE SFC AND UPPER RIDGING MOVES IN. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW LIKELY POPS IN NW WIND LAKE EFFECT
BELTS...DIMINISHING TUE NIGHT TO SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS WED. 850MB TEMPS OF 5-7C WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO NEAR RECORD
LOW HIGH TEMPS TUE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S INTERIOR W TO THE MID
60S SCENTRAL. GOOD FLOW AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TUE NIGHT TEMPS
FROM BEING TOO COOL...ONLY AS LOW AS THE UPPER 40S INTERIOR W. THE
RIDGING MOVING IN ON WED WILL LEAD TO WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO THU WHILE THE SFC RIDGE MOVES E. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WED NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD NIGHT INLAND. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS INLAND LOW TEMPS AS LOW AS 40F. 850MB TEMPS INCREASE TO 12-
14C BY LATE THU...SO HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S.

DEFINITELY INCREASED UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. PRECIP FORECAST FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT IS TRICKY AS THE
12Z/23 ECMWF SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NRN CWA WHILE THE
SHORTWAVE GLANCES THE SRN CWA. THE 00Z/24 GFS HAS THE FRONT STAYING
N OF THE CWA BUT ALSO BRING THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP
FARTHER N INTO THE CWA. WILL RUN WITH A BLEND OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND CONSENSUS. CONTINUE TO USE A CONSENSUS APPROACH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. TEMPS DO LOOK TO BE ON THE RISE LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS POTENTIALLY IN THE 80S SUN.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF LK SUPERIOR SLOWLY WEAKENS AS IT DRIFTS
ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO MONDAY. MOIST CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL FLOW
SURROUNDING THE LOW WILL BRING MVFR CIGS TO ALL THE TAF SITES.
EXPECT PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS AT TIMES...ENHANCED BY COOLER AIR
FLOWING OVER LK SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY WITH STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW AT
KIWD AND KCMX. VISIBILITY WILL GENERALLY BE GREATER THAN 6SM IN THE
SHOWERS...BUT AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POCKET OF COOLEST AIR
ARRIVES ON MONDAY...SHOULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR VSBY IN THE RAIN
SHOWERS AT KIWD AND KCMX DUE TO STRONGER LAKE ENHANCEMENT. GUSTY W-
NW WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT
THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX LOCATION.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES JUST N OF THUNDER BAY EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU TUE. UNDER THE
SHARPER PRES GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO WHERE THE SURGE OF
COOLER AIR IS MOST PRONOUNCED AND DESTABLIZATION IS GREATEST...WNW
GALES UP TO 35 KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE LAKE THRU
THE AFTN. CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NCENTRAL PORTION OF THE
LAKE AS THIS AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER A SLACKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE
LO PRES. ADDED A MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE LAKE WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND WINDS MAY BE
WEAKER FOR A TIME TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH
MOVING AROUND THE LO JUST TO THE N. AS THE LO CONTINUES E OF LAKE
SUPERIOR TONIGHT/TUE...NW GALES TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
MAINLY THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS THE PRES
GRADIENT WILL BE SHARPEST. AS THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E AND HI
PRES TO THE W APPROACHES...THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH
W-E ON TUE NIGHT/WED. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS FOR WED NIGHT THRU
FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263>265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263>265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>244.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JLA
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...VOSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

315 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN STALL NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

TODAY: AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH SOUTH CAROLINA AND A
SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE WESTERN PIEDMONT HAVE HELPED
A FEW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. MOST SHOWERS HAVE YIELDED MINIMAL PRECIPITATION BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS COULD CAUSE A FEW
OF THEM TO DEVELOP INTO MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OR EVEN A BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM. VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED ON RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS
OVER THE TRIAD IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
AS UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTS INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...DONT
EXPECT SHOWERS TO HAVE MUCH CONSEQUENCE THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS WREAKING HAVOC ON FORECASTED LOW
TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS PROBABLY ENDING UP MUCH HIGHER THAN EXPECTED
BUT THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EASTWARD...TEMPS COULD DIVE JUST BEFORE SUNRISE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
IF THIS HAPPENS QUICK ENOUGH...THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF FOG BEFORE
SUNRISE AS WELL...AS NOTED IN OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM OVER
SOUTHWESTERN VA. OVERALL EXPECT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S EAST TO LOW
70S WEST.

AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CENTRAL
NC. PRIOR TO THAT OCCURRING A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO SET UP OVER THE AREA AND COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING...PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. NONE
OF THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE AND THE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
OUTLOOK FROM THE SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER ONLY. MAX
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER...TOPPING OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT ARE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE
TRIAD JUST BEFORE 00Z TUESDAY...SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD...AND END UP
JUST EAST OF THE TRIANGLE BY 12Z TUESDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AND FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

ALL MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT EXITING THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
MORNING AND TRACKING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST. AS IT DOES SO IT IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STALL OVER EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS
ITS PARENT LOW CHANGES DIRECTION AND STARTS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
INTO CANADA. THIS WILL CAUSE AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHERE THE FRONT STALLS OUT WILL ULTIMATELY
DETERMINE HOW FAR WEST AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT SHOULD
HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY IN THE TRIANGLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER ON
TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE TRIAD WITH MID TO UPPER
80S IN THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

SHOWERS IN THE EAST SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
PIEDMONT BUT WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD FEATURES A
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA TROUGH WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN
ROCKIES. DURING THE PERIOD...THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH RELAXES AS A
RIDGE IN THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST. GUIDANCE DIFFERS IN
HOW EXACTLY THE EASTERN TROUGH EVOLVES EXACTLY AT THE END OF THE
PERIOD WITH SOME TROUGHINESS LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. IN TIME...A SHEAR AXIS
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF VA SOUTHWEST INTO THE CAROLINAS
AND GA ON FRIDAY AND THEN PERSISTS INTO THE WEEKEND. AT THE
SURFACE...A LINGERING COLD FRONT WILL PERSIST ALONG THE CAROLINA
COAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH THE FRONT WEAKENING AND
SHIFTING SOUTH WITH TIME. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK AND FOR THE WEEKEND...DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE CAROLINAS AS A MOIST FLOW RIDES OVER THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...A LINGERING THREAT OF SCATTERED...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE
RAIN THREAT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR NOW
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
WEEEKEND. SEASONABLE TO EVER SO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: A FEW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE TRIAD ALONG A
BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN VA TO WEST OF CHARLOTTE AT THIS
TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND
HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAFS BUT CANT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM EITHER. BACK TO THE EAST SOME SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE VICINITY OF KRDU AND KFAY BUT THE THREAT NOT LARGE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. ASIDE FROM PRECIPITATION...LOTS OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDS STRETCHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA
STEMMING FROM A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. THIS WILL
KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PERHAPS AN EXCEPTION IN THE NORTHEAST
AND AS SUCH HAVE ALREADY SEEN SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
MVFR FOG AT KRWI. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME CHANGES IN CEILING HERE
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN
THE TRIAD JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE IT HAS
RAINED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. LATER IN THE DAY TODAY...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SETTING UP
OVER CENTRAL NC AND THEN A SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WITH A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM: THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE COAST AND THUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EASTERN TERMINALS BOTH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND THEN A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

306 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM SUNDAY...

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WELL-ESTABLISHED JUST TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST...AND A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR EAST ALONG THE COAST. IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS...A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. AN EMBEDDED CLOSED
LOW OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL OPEN UP
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE IN THE WEEK...LEAVING A WEAK OPEN
TROUGH AND WEAK FLOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW ON THE
EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR PRECIP ALONG THE
SFC BOUNDARY AT TIMES DURING THE MID TO LATTER PORTION OF THE
WEEK...BUT THE BOUNDARY AND DEEPEST MOISTURE...BASED ON TODAY`S
MODEL RUNS...APPEARS TO BE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO PRECLUDE ANY MORE THAN
A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. FOR OUR CENTRAL
AND WESTERN COUNTIES...DRY AIR SHOULD PREVAIL. AS FOR TEMPS DURING
THIS TIME...EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOW IN THE MID
60S...WHICH IS JUST ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

RIGHT NOW...NEXT WEEKEND`S WEATHER IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THIS CAN CHANGE SINCE MODELS DEPICT SEVERAL
SHORT WAVES MAY BE APPROACHING FROM THE NW DURING THAT TIME.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...WFO RAH
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PROVIDED ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
PERIODS OF INCREASED COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ENDING
PRIOR TO NOON WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. THINK WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES UNTIL NOON THEN TURN RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY
INTO THE LOW TO MED 80S.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COUPLED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT COULD ALLOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE USED THE LESS THAN 10 POP RULE TO INSERT MENTION OF
STORMS FOR THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. BY TUESDAY MORNING, MODELS ARE A
LITTLE MORE IN AGREEMENT FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE
SOUTHWARD. INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER FOR THIS TIME FRAME BUT 20 TO
30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COULD ALLOW AN ISOLATED STORM TO BECOME
STRONG PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING
FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WYOMING
AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IF AVAILABLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS LINE UP WITH PEAK
HEATING. BY FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND WHETHER RESULTING
FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR IF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPRESSED UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
NOW...HAVE TRENDED WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHAVIOR
BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

ELSENHEIMER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

14/18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1228 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION.../06Z TAFS/
ONLY CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WOULD BE ISOLATED CONVECTION THAT MAY
DEVELOP NEAR KAUS AFTER 18Z MONDAY. FEW/SCT CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. PROBABILITIES FOR CONVECTION NEAR
KAUS MONDAY AFTERNOON REMAIN SMALL AND WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS
TIME. MAY HAVE TO INCLUDE VICINITY OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN
LATER FORECAST. WINDS WILL BE S/SW NEAR 5 KNOTS THROUGH 15Z THEN
BECOME E/SE NEAR 10 KNOTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS IS SLOWLY PUSHING TO THE
SOUTH BUT EXPECTED TO STALL JUST NORTH OF THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS
PLATEAU AREA OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY/EDWARDS PLATEAU AREA LATE
TONIGHT WITH REST OF THE AREA REMAINING DRY. CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE IS ON TRACK WITH ONLY SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...10
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
GENERALLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE OVER MAINLY W-SW TAF SITES. MODELS REMAIN
SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS FOR MONDAY WITH
REGARD TO MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES. THE RAP IS AGGRESSIVE WITH
RAIN AND FCST SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM12 AND GFS TEND TO SUPPORT
THIS BUT THE QPF OUTPUT FROM THE NAM AND GFS FAVOR A DRIER
SOLUTION. 4KM WRF JUST ARRIVED AND IT PAINTS A VERY PICTURE LATE
TOMORROW AFTN INTO MON EVENING. SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES ABOUND
BETWEEN MODELS. HAVE TRIED TO BLEND A RAP/NAM12 AND GFS SOLUTION.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED /

UPDATE...
MAIN UPDATE TO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST IS THE ADDITION OF PATCHY
FOG FOR AREAS WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE AND DECREASING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS DRAPED FROM WEST TEXAS INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS
EVENING AND THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT... WITH THE PREVIOUS DRY FORECAST ON TRACK. ALSO
ADJUSTED DEW POINTS FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND BASED ON ANTICIPATED
APPROACH OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT.

HUFFMAN

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
SEE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MODELS NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING BUT LEANED A BIT TOWARD THE NAM12 ON MONDAY
WITH SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE AFTN OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES WITH
A GAP TOMORROW EVENING AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD 06Z. WILL
START SHRA/TSRA OVER THE NORTH TOWARD EVENING. IN THE SHORT
TERM...VFR CONDS EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH ONLY SOME PATCHY FOG IN A
FEW SPOTS TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MONDAY AFTN. 43

PREV DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...
ISO TSRA DEVELOPING OVER COASTAL/NEAR COASTAL COUNTIES THIS AFTN
BUT COVERAGE DECIDEDLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. STILL EXPECTING THIS
ACTIVITY TO DECREASE WITH SUNSET. WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE REGION...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE LIMITED COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS WELL. HOWEVER THE MAIN ISSUE WITH THIS FCST LOOKS TO
BE THE CHCS OF RAIN WITH THE APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LATE MON/TUES. GFS KEEPING WITH A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION THAN THE
OTHERS...BUT BOTH SIDES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THEIR
RESPECTIVE BIASES. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE TRENDS OF LATE WILL KEEP
THE SLIGHT EDGE FOR THE WETTER MODELS WITH THIS EVENT AND STICK
WITH THE CHC POPS ALREADY IN THE GRIDS.

THE DRIER AIRMASS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION LATE WED ON
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RATHER HEALTHY
DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS. BUT DESPITE THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
JUST TO THE WEST WE SHOULD STAY DRY (POPS-WISE) DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD. 41

MARINE...
OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST MONDAY AND INTO
TUESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO WORK OFF THE COAST
AND SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST BY MIDWEEK. NORTHEAST TO
EAST WINDS MAY PERSIST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS
AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AS STORMS FORM ALONG THE FRONT AND PUSH INTO THE GULF.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 76 99 76 98 73 / 10 20 20 30 20
HOUSTON (IAH) 76 99 76 98 74 / 10 20 20 30 20
GALVESTON (GLS) 82 92 82 91 80 / 10 10 20 30 20

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

1022 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...

CURRENT...RATHER AMORPHOUS LCL PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE ATTM. A
WEAK SFC LOW HAS DEVELOPED WELL OFFSHORE THE SERN CONUS...READILY
APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE CENTERED NEAR 30.7N 75.4W...DRIFTING
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE COAST. MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOWS UP
IN WATER VAPOR AND RUC ANLYS WITH ITS AXIS RUNNING FROM THE SC/GA
COASTS ACROSS NORTH FL TO NEAR CEDAR KEY. DIFF PVA OCCURRING WITH
THIS FEATURE ALLOWED FOR SOME EARLY MORNING SHRA/TS TO FORM TO THE
N/NW OF THE CWA. THIS ACTIVITY AND ITS ATTENDANT OUTFLOW BDRY IS
SAGGING SE TWD NRN LAKE VOLUSIA CO ATTM.

XMR MORNING RAOB...MUCH LIKE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...CONTINUES TO
SHOW A TYPICALLY MOIST LATE AUGUST AIR MASS WITH PWATS REMAINING
AROUND 2.0...WITH A WARM H50 TEMP OF -4.0C. SMALL DRY POCKET IS SEEN
IN THE H100-H85 LAYER...JUST OFF THE DECK. TBW SHOWS SLIGHTLY LOWER
PWAT (1.9" AND A LITTLE BIT COOLER (-5.0C) AT H50. MEAN LAYER WIND
FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN HAS BECOME WRLY AVERAGING ABOUT 10-13KT
FROM H85 ALL THE WAY UP THROUGH H20.

REST OF TODAY...MID LVL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST AND DAMPEN AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. EXPECT EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION GIVEN THE ACTIVITY THAT
IS ENCROACHING THE NWRN CWA...WITH WCSB DOMINANT AND BECOMING FAIRLY
ACTIVE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTH. LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF
THE WSW TO W WILL BE LIGHT...BUT SLOW INLAND PUSH OF ECSB. COUPLED
WITH WRLY STEERING FLOW...THIS APPEARS TO FAVOR THE EASTERN SIDE OF
THE PENINSULA...AS WELL AS THE NRN/ERN CWA...FOR HIGHER POPS TODAY.
PLAN TO MAKE GRID ADJUSTMENTS TWD THAT END...BUMPING THOSE AREAS UP
TO 50 FOR TODAY. OTRW...NIL CHGS.

.AVIATION...THRU 25/12Z

SFC WINDS: THRU 24/16Z...W/SW 3-5KTS ALL SITES. BTWN 24/16Z-18Z...
BCMG E/SE 8-12KTS COASTAL SITES. BTWN 24/20Z-23Z BCMG E/SE 7-10KTS
INTERIOR SITES. BTWN 25/01Z-04Z...BCMG S/SW AOB 3KTS ALL SITES.

VSBYS/WX/CIGS: THRU 24/18Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS N OF KISM-KDAB
MVG E/SE ARND 15KTS...SLGT CHC +TSRA WITH SFC WND G35KTS VCNTY KLEE.
BTWN 24/17Z-23Z...SCT MVFR SHRAS/IFR TSRAS S OF KISM-KDAB...SLGT CHC
+TSRA WITH SFC WND G35KTS VCNTY KSFB/KDAB/KTIX. BTWN 24/23Z-25/01Z
BCMG VFR ALL SITES.

.MARINE...LOCAL BUOY AND C-MAN DATA INDICATE A RATHER LIGHT...
GENERALLY OFFSHORE FLOW <10KT WITH SEAS AROUND 2FT. WINDS WILL GIVE
WAY TO A E/SE SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TS...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE...PRIMARY CONCERN
BECOMES STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

FORECAST/UPDATE...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX/AVIATION...BRAGAW

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015/

TONIGHT...EXPECT DIURNAL ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN MID/LATE EVENING.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH CLOUD DEBRIS
THINNING OVERNIGHT. HIGHS FORECAST IN THE L90S ALONG THE COAST AND
M90S INTO THE INTERIOR. HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE BETWEEN 100 AND
105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST WELL INTO THE 70S ONCE AGAIN.

TUE...A TROUGH ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO N FL WITH
SFC LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE GA/SC COASTAL PLAIN. 00Z GFS INDICATES
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL TRY TO WORK IN ACROSS FAR SRN SECTIONS WITH LOW
LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW BY AFTERNOON WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE TWO
INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. DRIER AIR IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ACROSS NRN
AREAS IS FORECAST WITH PWATS FROM 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES. H5 TEMPS WILL
BE AROUND -6 AND H7 TEMPS AROUND +10 DEGS C ACROSS THE NORTH. MID
LYR SW FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS ON THE ERN SIDE OF THE
PENINSULA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE SOUTH WHERE THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH
30 PCT NORTH TO 40-50 PCT SRN SECTIONS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S.

WED...PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR WED WITH TROUGH ALOFT STILL TO THE
NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SE GA. APPEARS LOW LVL S-SW FLOW
WILL INCREASE SOME WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REACHING NORTH TOWARD THE
ORLANDO METRO AND ALL OF BREVARD COUNTY. WILL NUDGE POPS UP TO 40-50
NORTH AND 50-60 SOUTH WITH ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW
REGIME FOR AFTERNOON STORMS FOCUSING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE LOWER 90S.

THU...DEEP MOISTURE...SSW LOW LVL FLOW VEERING TO SSE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND DEEP MOISTURE FOCUSING ACROSS THE AREA WILL SPELL POPS
IN THE LIKELY RANGE WITH NUMEROUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS.
COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MID LVL
STEERING FROM THE SW WILL BRING SOME STORMS TOWARD THE EAST COAST
INTO THE EVENING. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...HELD
DOWN IN SOME AREAS BY AN EARLY START TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BY LATE
MORNING.

FRI-MON...FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A TRANSITION DAY WITH LOW LVL SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE PROGD WITH PWATS TO 1.9-2.0 INCHES.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE ACTIVE FRI BY EARLY AFTN AND
FOCUS STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WILL KEEP HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 60 PCT. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE LONGER RANGE MODELS
FOR THE FORECAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH 00Z GFS INDICATING A TROPICAL
WAVE BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE PENINSULA BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND (SUNDAY TIME FRAME) AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID LEVEL TROUGH
...WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS ANY POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM WELL
OFFSHORE. IT APPEARS BOTH MODELS KEEP SOME TROUGHING ACROSS THE
GULF...THE GFS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND THE ECMWF ACROSS THE WRN
GULF THROUGH THE WKND. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE SCATTERED RANGE WITH
ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH MOISTURE
LIKELY ADEQUATE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

.AVIATION...LIGHT/VARIABLE MORNING WINDS BECOMING LIGHT SW/WSW OVER
THE AREA...EXCEPT ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. INLAND PUSH OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE SLOWED BY DEEPER DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE THE SURFACE.
WINDS WILL BECOME L/V AGAIN THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED WARM
ALOFT WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPING AFT 18Z THRU EARLY EVENING
ACROSS ECFL. DEVELOPING WRLY STEERING FLOW SHOULD FAVOR CONVECTION
ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA LATE TODAY/EVENING. SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE/DISSIPATE BY MID/LATE EVENING. TEMPO MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
HEAVIER CELLS. LATER DAY/EVENING TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NECESSARY ALONG
THE COAST.

.MARINE... TODAY-TONIGHT...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER
THE AREA WITH WIND SPEEDS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION/SEA BREEZE GENERALLY
BELOW 10 KTS. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW WILL BACK TO ESE NEAR THE COAST
THIS AFTN WITH WINDS 8-12 KTS HERE. VARIABLE WIND DIRECTION MUCH OF
THE TIME ELSEWHERE. MODELS SUGGEST SSW FLOW DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT OVER THE OPEN ATLC AT 9-12 KTS. SEAS CONTINUE NEAR
2 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2-3 FT FURTHER OFFSHORE. MODELS ALSO SUGGESTING
PERIODS LOWERING TO AROUND 6 SECONDS WHICH WILL PRODUCE MORE CHOP
THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY.

WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF OF LATE DAY/EVENING OFFSHORE MOVING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. BOATERS ON INTRACOASTAL
WATERS/INLAND LAKES WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS OUTFLOW WINDS FROM STORMS MAY ARRIVE WELL AHEAD
OF LIGHTNING/PRECIPITATION.

S-SW WINDS INTO MID WEEK WILL BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE WEEK TO
ONSHORE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS.
2-3 FT SWELL NEARSHORE AND UP TO 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE IS FORECAST
TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND THEN THE EASTERLY SWELL SHOULD DECREASE INTO
WED AND THU. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO MID WEEK AS
DEEPER MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 92 75 93 76 / 40 30 30 20
MCO 94 76 94 76 / 40 20 30 20
MLB 92 76 92 76 / 40 30 30 30
VRB 91 76 93 75 / 40 30 30 30
LEE 93 77 95 77 / 40 20 30 20
SFB 93 76 96 77 / 40 20 30 20
ORL 94 77 96 79 / 40 20 30 20
FPR 92 75 92 74 / 30 30 30 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1044 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING WITH A
NICE LATE SUMMER DAY IN STORE THANKS TO 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING WHILE FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS 4-6K FT TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN CWA. THESE CLOUDS DUE TO STRONG 553 DM 500 MB
LOW JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR TO TRACK JUST NE OF THE GREAT LAKES
INTO TONIGHT WITH MOST OF ITS LOW CLOUDS PASSING NNE OF CENTRAL IL
TODAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. BREEZY WNW
WINDS 10-20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND GUSTS OF 20-30 MPH AND STRONGER
FROM I-74 NORTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS PIA AND BMI. MAY SEE
THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z. PREVAILING SPEEDS OF 12 TO 17 KTS
ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

602 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 600 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO OUR AREA BRINGING QUIET
WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FEW-SCT
CU DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...ESP ACROSS PIA AND BMI. MAY SEE
THAT LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. GUSTY WESTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DIMINISHING TOWARDS 00Z. PREVAILING SPEEDS OF 12 TO 17
KTS ARE EXPECTED WITH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

735 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE THUNDER CHANCES AND ALL POPS WEST
OF THE COUNTIES THAT BORDER VIRGINIA. WILL ALSO FINE TUNE THE T
AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. UPDATES TO THE
GRIDS...ZONES...AND HWO FORTHCOMING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT IS EXITING FAR EASTERN
KENTUCKY ATTM. HOWEVER...A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY
FOG WILL LINGER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS
OVERTAKE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL REMAIN THE CASE FOR
MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR BR AT THE
VALLEY TAF SITES LATE TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT FROM
THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION TIED TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS S AR/SE OK HAS
SHOWN TRENDS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF N LA. THIS CONVECTION IS
ELEVATED AND THUS...CANNOT SEE ANY REAL OUTFLOW TO SPEAK OF FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND NEW 12Z GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THAT POSSIBILITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
THE TXK/ELD/SHV AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL HANDLE ANY RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS S AR WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ASSUMING THEY BECOME ROOTED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY A NNE
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ARE BEING
OBSERVED IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE ARKLATEX THIS MORNING.
THIS TSRA ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO OUR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TERMINALS
THIS MORNING...THUS WILL ADD VCTS TO TXK AND ELD THIS MORNING. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRY TO MIGRATE THROUGH AREA TODAY...AND THIS
WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THUS
AMD AND TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE ADDED AS THEY FORM NEAR TERMINALS.

ELEVEN

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY ALONG INTERSTATE
20 CORRIDOR ALONG WITH A SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...TO ALLOW FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES WHILE PORTIONS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS MAY APPROACH
100 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

PRECIP COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH CHANCE POPS CONFINED
MAINLY TO JUST DEEP EAST TEXAS ON TUESDAY AS SURFACE AND UPPER-
LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
TO AVERAGE AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS.

A FAIRLY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD CHARACTERIZED BY DRY CONDITIONS WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S ON
TUESDAY NIGHT...CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 70S BY THE WEEKEND. /05/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 96 73 90 66 / 30 30 20 10
MLU 94 68 89 64 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 88 65 88 61 / 30 20 10 10
TXK 90 67 87 62 / 30 20 20 10
ELD 89 66 87 60 / 30 20 10 10
TYR 96 74 92 69 / 30 40 30 10
GGG 96 72 91 66 / 30 40 30 10
LFK 98 74 93 68 / 30 30 30 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

05/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

1117 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS MOVE INTO THE REGION.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WE WILL SEE HUMIDITIES START TO DROP OFF
AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN AREAS.
NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO SATURDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE
MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS ALONG THE COAST. OTHERWISE...LESS
COVERAGE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...HAVE
INCREASED POPS OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE.

SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...ALLOWING
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

PREV DISC...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS INCLUDED BLENDING IN THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR POP GRIDS TO EXPAND THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MARINE FOG/STRATUS LAYER WELL ENTRENCHED
ACROSS INLAND ZONES THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO HANG TOUGH INTO
THE MORNING...WITH NO REAL IMPETUS TO REMOVE IT BESIDES HEATING OF
THE BOUNDARY LAYER. THE CLOUDS SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY SCATTER
OUT BY AFTERNOON. THESE POCKETS OF HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO FORM...VERY MUCH THE HIT AND MISS VARIETY
GIVEN THE LACK OF CONCENTRATED FORCING.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR TONIGHT...WITH FOG/STRATUS
REFORMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES S OF THE MTNS. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR NOW...THOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WELL
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

TUE IS A TRICKY FORECAST...AS UPPER LOW PRES MOVES EWD AND PUSHES
A COLD FRONT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE AREA. THERE SHOULD BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUE...THOUGH BREAKS IN THE
OVERCAST ARE EXPECTED. THESE POCKETS OF HEATING COUPLED WITH
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S...WILL LEAD TO REGIONS OF CAPE
APPROACHING 1000 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR...SO THIS
CAPE WILL BE MORE OF THE LONG...SKINNY VARIETY ASSOCIATED WITH
HEAVY RNFL SOUNDINGS THAN WIDESPREAD SEVERE WX. THAT BEING
SAID...MODEST H5 JET AND RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION WILL APPROACH NEW
ENGLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LIGHT SELY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...THIS WILL SUPPORT AMPLE SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THESE
HIGH SHEAR/LOW CAPE ENVIRONMENTS ARE NOTORIOUSLY HARD TO FORECAST
IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY...AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS ARE A POSSIBILITY TUE AFTERNOON. SPC SREF PRODUCTS ARE
BEGINNING TO KEY ON AT LEAST PART OF THE AREA SEEING A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX...AND NCAR ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS SUPPORTIVE
OF A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE LINGERING OVER THE FORECAST AREA...MOST
LIKELY SRN NH. WITH LCLS NEAR 1000 M IN THAT VICINITY...THE
INGREDIENTS ARE ALL IN PLACE SUCH THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THAT EXACT SCENARIO IS
LOW...SO FOR NOW GUSTY WINDS WILL BE ADDED TO THE GRIDS WHERE CAPE
IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 1500 J/KG...ACROSS SRN NH AND THE CT RIVER
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TUESDAY EVENING.

500 MB PATTERN FEATURES MULTIPLE OMEGA BLOCKING STRETCHED FROM
EUROPE WWD TO ERN PACIFIC...WHICH MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS
EVENTUALLY BREAK DOWN AS TROUGH DRIVES EQUATORWARD OFF THE POLE
ACROSS ALASKA. MAIN FEATURE WILL BE THE 500MB CLOSED LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...WHICH SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN AND LIFTS POLEWARD
AS IT MOVES EAST DURING THE MIDWEEK BEFORE EVENTUALLY FLATTENING
AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO BUILD IN FOR THE THE END OF THE WEEK AND
THE WEEKEND.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL START UNSETTLED AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES WITH WARM HUMID AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF IT. SOME SEVERE
THREAT INTO TUE EVENING...BUT OF MORE CONCERN FOR TUE NIGHT WILL
BE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINS IN TSRA AND TRAINING AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
AS A WEAK SFC WAVE MOVES ALONG IT. SHRA SHOULD WIND DOWN BY WED
MORNING...WITH SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR FOR LATE WED AND WED NIGHT. AS THE 500MB LOW LIFTS
NWD...WILL SEE ANOTHER WAVE ROTATE AROUND IT ON THURSDAY...AND
THIS WILL DRIVE ANOTHER FRONT THRU THE REGION...AND COLD SET OFF A
ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS...AND MAYBE A FEW TSRA...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY
BE LIMITED TO THE NRN ZONES. MORE NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
MOVE IN FOR FRI INTO SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE
IN THE 500MB FLOW APPROACHES SUNDAY...BUT FLOW SHIFTS SW AND
WARMER AIR RETURNS WITH A THREAT FOR SHRA LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO DROP OFF IN STEPS...FIRST ON WED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND THEN ANOTHER STEP DOWN FOR THU-
SAT WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S...WHICH WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL. AFTER THIS 850
TEMPS LOOK TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT...WHICH WILL MEAN WARMER TEMPS...CLIMBING INTO THE80S
MANY SPOTS FOR SUN AND MON.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE MTNS
THRU MID MORNING IN MARINE FOG/STRATUS LAYER. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THIS LAYER TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT WITH TIME...THOUGH AREAS OF
MVFR ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TSRA. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

MARINE FOG/STRATUS RETURNS TONIGHT...WITH AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR
MAINLY FOR COASTAL AND SRN NH TERMINALS. BY MID MORNING REMAINING
STRATUS WILL LIFT/SCATTER OUT AGAIN...WITH AREAS OF MVFR CLOUDS IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE A LITTLE MORE
WIDESPREAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NH...WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN
HEAVIER CONVECTION.

LONG TERM...TUE NIGHT WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH SHRA/SHRA AND
ANOTHER ROUND OF FOG...ESPECIALLY OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. BY WED
SHOULD SEE PREVAILING VFR THRU THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH VLY FOG
EXPECTED EVERY NIGHT.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS THRU TUE.
WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE WATERS THRU TUE
AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

LONG TERM...ANY HIGHER SWELL OF AROUND 40-5 FT WILL BE SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT AND BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAY ME

818 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND MESOSCALE
MODELS IN THE NEAR TERM. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROX 14Z. OTHERWISE...MUCH LESS COVERAGE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION. SLOW MOVING FRONT APPROACHES
TOMORROW...ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
PERSISTENCE LOOKS LIKE THE BEST BET FOR TONIGHT...WITH FOG/STRATUS
REFORMING ACROSS INLAND ZONES S OF THE MTNS. HAVE ADDED AREAS OF
FOG FOR NOW...THOUGH PATCHY DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AGAIN AS WELL
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TUESDAY EVENING.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM...AREAS OF IFR AND LIFR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE MTNS
THRU MID MORNING IN MARINE FOG/STRATUS LAYER. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THIS LAYER TO LIFT/SCATTER OUT WITH TIME...THOUGH AREAS OF
MVFR ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED TSRA. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...ANY HIGHER SWELL OF AROUND 40-5 FT WILL BE SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT AND BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

723 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...MOSTLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST BASED ON
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. THIS INCLUDED BLENDING IN THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR POP GRIDS TO EXPAND THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER EARLY TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER: THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS
AND VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS TUESDAY EVENING.

LONG TERM...ANY HIGHER SWELL OF AROUND 40-5 FT WILL BE SUBSIDING
TUE NIGHT AND BOTH SEAS/WINDS WILL REMAIN COMFORTABLY BLO SCA
LVLS THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...LEGRO
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...CEMPA
AVIATION...CEMPA
MARINE...CEMPA/LEGRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

734 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

A GUSTY W SLOWLY VEERING NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR ARND DEEP LO
PRES PASSING TO THE NE OF UPR MI WL BRING PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THE TAF SITES THIS FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...CMX WL
SEE THE WORST CONDITIONS...WITH MORE FREQUENT...HEAVIER SHRA/IFR
CONDITIONS PSBL THERE AT TIMES IN THE PRESENCE OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE MORE
EXPOSED CMX LOCATION. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY WINDS...LO CLDS AND SHOWERS
WL PERSIST TNGT...CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE A BIT AS THE DEEP LO PRES
MOVES SLOWLY AWAY.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LO PRES JUST N OF THUNDER BAY EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU TUE. UNDER THE SHARPER PRES
GRADIENT ON THE SW FLANK OF THIS LO WHERE THE SURGE OF COOLER AIR IS
MOST PRONOUNCED AND DESTABLIZATION IS GREATEST...WNW GALES UP TO 35
KTS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW HALF OF THE LAKE THRU THE AFTN.
CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NCENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE AS
THIS AREA HAS FALLEN UNDER A SLACKER GRADIENT CLOSER TO THE LO PRES.
ADDED A MENTION OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE LAKE
WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST AND WINDS MAY BE WEAKER FOR A
TIME TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LO PRES TROUGH MOVING AROUND THE
LO JUST TO THE N. AS THE LO CONTINUES E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TONIGHT/TUE...NW GALES TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE LAKE WHERE GUIDANCE HINTS THE PRES GRADIENT
WILL BE SHARPEST. AS THE LO MOVES FARTHER TO THE E AND HI PRES TO THE
W APPROACHES...THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH W-E ON TUE
NIGHT/WED. WINDS WILL BE UNDER 20 KTS FOR WED NIGHT THRU FRI.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

1103 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BRINGING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MOSAIC RADAR LOOP SHOWS VERY LITTLE ACVTY IN NY OR PA AT THIS TIME
IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN LAKE
ONTARIO SW TO FAR WRN MD AT THIS TIME. SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THIS
FRNT WERE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S FROM SOUTHERN PA TO NE PA AND
ACRS C NY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF CLOUDS DRAPED
ALONG THE BNDRY WHICH WAS MORE SOLID IN NY AND W OF THE MTNS IN
PA. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BREAK UP AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES FROM INSOLATION AND ALSO SOME DOWNSLOPING ACRS PA INTO
SRN NY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WAVE THAT WILL MOVE E THIS
AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH THE FRONT TO PROVIDE SOME UPPER LEVEL
FORCING AS WELL.

BECAUSE OF THIS WAVE THE SHEAR PROFILES WERE DECENT FOR MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESP IN NRN PA AND C NY. HOWEVER...WHAT IS
UNCERTAIN IS HOW UNSTABLE WILL THE AMS BECOME IN ADVANCE OF THIS
FRNT. NAM12...HIGHER RES WRF NMM AND WRF ARW ALL INDICATE CAPES
ABV 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE HRRR...GFS AND RAP MUCH LOWER.
LOOKING AT THE SPC MESOANALYSIS SITE THE NAM IS ALREADY TOO MOIST
AT 925 MB AND EVEN 850 MB SUGGESTING AFTERNOON MIXING DOWN TO THE
SFC WILL NOT BRING DWPTS TO THE UPR 60S AND HENCE CAPES LIKELY
WILL REMAIN BTWN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. SO I HAVE MAINLY CHC POPS FOR
AREAS E OF THE FINGER LAKES AND NW PA AS THIS FRNT MOVES E DURING
MAX HEATING OF THE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...ACVTY WINDS DOWN AS THE WAVE PASSES AND WE LOSE THE
DAY/S INSOLATION. A FEW SHRA COULD SNEAK BACK INTO NW PA/SWRN NY LATE
TONIGHT AS ANOTHER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE GREAT LAKES. HAVE SLGHT CHC NW PA. HELD OFF ON POPS IN SW NY
ZONES IN BGM FORECAST AREA FOR NOW. IT DOESN/T LOOK LIKE ACVTY
REACHES STEUBEN CO B4 12Z.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...
DURING THIS PERIOD...CENTER OF LARGE CUT OFF UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF GEORGIAN BAY...TO WESTERN
QUEBEC. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL ENCOMPASS AROUND IT FROM UPPER
MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. 500MB HEIGHTS
ANOMALIES SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW WILL DROP TO BETWEEN 2 AND 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL...AND IN TURN...OUR TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN ABOUT 3-6 DEGREES COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGY TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY...WE WILL REMAIN DRY SLOTTED BETWEEN POOL OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND THE FRONTAL
ZONE DRIFTING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. SPOKES OF VORTICITY WILL BE
EDGING INTO OUR AREA...AND GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES LESS THAN 10
CELSIUS...A LITTLE HELP FROM GREAT LAKES MOISTURE TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM NORTHERN FINGER LAKES TO
CENTRAL NY MAINLY NORTH OF THE NY THRUWAY...BUT OVERALL TUESDAY
LOOKS DRY FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.

CLOUD COVER AND AMOUNT OF SHOWERS INCREASE A BIT WEDNESDAY AS DRY
SLOT SHIFTS EAST...AND UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CUT
OFF LOW...DROPS INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH OUTER RIM OF MOISTURE
POOLED AROUND THE LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM TWIN
TIERS NORTHWARD...BUT MORE ISOLATED /IF ANY/ FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST
PA INTO THE WESTERN CATSKILLS. EVEN THOUGH THERE WILL GENERALLY BE
GREATER COVERAGE TO THE SHOWERS WEDNESDAY COMPARED TO
TUESDAY...AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT /TRACE TO SEVERAL HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH/ AND MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 AM UPDATE...
LONG TERM FORECAST ON TRACK. STILL COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
THURSDAY ESPECIALLY CNY AS CORE OF COOL AIR/TROF LIFTS OUT. DRIER
WEATHER BEHIND THAT WITH A WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BOTH
THE 0Z EURO AND GFS SHOW A DISTURBANCE FOR SUNDAY. BASED ON
SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL KEEP US IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE FOR
NOW BUT THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED AS WE DRAW CLOSER. PREVIOUS
AFD BELOW.

COOL, CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER LOWER CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
OPEN UP AND SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROF BY THURSDAY.

THE UL LOW WILL KEEP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY RAIN-FREE AND
PLEASANT, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FA.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS TAF PERIOD BUT WITH SOME WRINKLES AS A
FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA. THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH SCT SHRA...TIMING AS PER TEMPO GROUPS IN TAFS. THERE MAY BE
EMBEDDED THUNDER AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE LACKING FOR MOST
TERMINALS SO NOT IN TAFS EXCEPT KBGM WHICH SHOULD BE WELL
POSITIONED TO HARNESS DIURNAL HEATING. IT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR
KAVP AS WELL IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES...BUT THAT WILL BE AFTER 23Z.
SYSTEM OVERALL IS ON THE WEAKER SIDE. RESTRICTIONS IF ANY WITH THE
SHRA WILL TEND TO BE MINOR AND BRIEF. WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY
SW 6-9 KTS TODAY...BEFORE VEERING LIGHT W-NW BEHIND THE FRONT INTO
TONIGHT. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT EARLY ENOUGH AT KELM FOR VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPMENT 09Z-12Z TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH FRI...GENERALLY VFR EXCEPT POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS IN
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG...MAINLY KELM.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...MDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1030 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND BEGIN MOVING INTO
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL
IN THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND MAY STILL BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
LATE IN THE WEEK AS WELL. DRIER AIR WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE AREA
DURING THE WEEKEND. AS LONG AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARBY...WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 MONDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY...AS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT AND
OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND WILL
BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

THE FIRST OF THESE IS MOVING THROUGH THIS MORNING...AND WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE AFTN. BENEATH THIS FEATURE...SOME ENHANCED
PVA WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 1.8 INCHES
ON MORNING SOUNDINGS...WILL DRIVE AT LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS AFTN. NSSL WRF SHOWS QUITE A BIT
OF ACTIVITY THIS AFTN...WHILE THE HRRR IS MUCH LESS ROBUST. DRY AIR
EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY AND PROGGED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE
LESSER AERIAL COVERAGE SHOULD VERIFY MORE ACCURATELY...AND HAVE
TONED DOWN POP THROUGH THE AFTN AND INTO THE EVENING. STILL A FEW
PLACES WILL SEE A SHOWER OR TSTM THIS AFTN...BUT NOTHING STRONG AND
IT APPEARS MANY PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY.

THIS FIRST SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT LEAVING SOME SUBSIDENCE/NVA IN ITS
WAKE...AHEAD OF A SECONDARY FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
ITSELF. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY INTO HOW THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
COALESCE TO CREATE SHOWERS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THE DRY AIR
RACING EASTWARD AND THE LACK OF ANY DIURNAL EFFECTS DUE TO LATE
TIMING OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING. HAVE INHERITED LOW-CHC POP FOR
TONIGHT AND WILL LEAVE UNCHANGED WITH THIS MORNING UPDATE...BUT THE
TREND HAS BEEN FOR DECREASING SHOWER POTENTIAL SO MAY WALK POP DOWN
LATER THIS AFTN FOR TONIGHTS IMPULSE.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
AREA-WIDE. LOWS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...FALLING TO AROUND 70 WELL INLAND...73 AT THE COAST

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE SHORT TERM APPEARS A BIT UNSETTLED AS A
FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AND STALLS RIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST ZONES
TUESDAY AND VERY NEAR THE COASTLINE WEDNESDAY. LATER WEDNESDAY IT
MAY RETREAT WESTWARD AGAIN. CONVECTION WILL BE FAVORED EAST OF THE
BOUNDARY EACH DAY WHICH WILL TEND TO MEAN HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG
THE COAST. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WETTER OF THE TWO DAYS SINCE WE
NOT ONLY HAVE MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM SHORTWAVE ENERGY BUT ALSO
PERHAPS SOME DEEPER COUPLED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF UPPER JET STREAK. AREA-WIDE PRECIPITATION PROSPECTS ARE NOT
TERRIBLY HIGH THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS WILL SEE HEAVY RAIN
UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE DEEPER SLOW MOVING CELLS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT THAT HAD BEEN STALLED NEAR
THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY MAY GET DRAWN INLAND AGAIN BY UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY INCITING LOW PRESSURE ON THE BOUNDARY. AS SUCH WILL RAISE
POPS SLIGHTLY BACK INTO THE LOW END CHANCE RANGE. IT MAY ALSO BE
TIME TO START RE-EVALUATING HOW QUICKLY THIS FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE
AND ITS DEEP MOISTURE WITH IT SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS IS
NOW BECOMING INCREASINGLY MODELED TO HANG BACK TO OUR WEST THROUGH
POSSIBLY SATURDAY. WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS POINT
BUT WORTH NOTING THAT THE GFS REALLY DIGS THE ENERGY ALOFT AND
CHANNELS DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN ALL WEEKEND
AND BEYOND.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...FOG/STRATUS INLAND WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
13Z...MIXING OUT AFTER THAT. TIME HEIGHT INDICATES PLENTY OF
MID CLOUD TODAY. LOW PRESSURE SOUTHWEST OF THE HUDSON BAY HAS A
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ALL THE WAY INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS MAY KICK
OFF SOME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...FAIRLY ISOLATED HOWEVER. ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. WILL REEVALUATE ON THE NEXT
SET OF TAFS.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUE THROUGH FRI.

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY...WITH THE LATEST
OB FROM 41013 REPORTING ONLY 3 KTS AND JUST 1 KT AT JMPN7. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND BECOME S/SE...BUT REMAIN AT
10 KTS OR LESS EVEN WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE SEA BREEZE. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVE SPECTRUM SWELL DOMINATED...WITH 2 DISTINCT
SWELLS PRESENT. WHILE BOTH OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE FROM THE SE...THE
PERIODS WILL BE VASTLY DIFFERENT. AN 8-9 SEC SE SWELL...THE TYPICAL
GROUND SWELL...WILL BE FEATURED...BUT A MUCH LONGER 12 SEC SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...LIKELY SOME FORERUNNER SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALL OF THE
WAVE GROUPS WILL BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE HOWEVER...SO TOTAL SEAS WILL
REMAIN 1-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN
ON TUESDAY BRINING A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WATERS. WIND WAVES WILL BE LIGHT AND THERE WILL BE A VERY SMALL
SWELL COMPONENT FROM DANNY FOR A DOMINANT WAVE FORECAST OF 2 TO 3
FT. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BRIEFLY REACH THE COASTLINE ON WEDNESDAY
BUT THEN PULL BACK A BIT AIDED BY BOTH THE SEA BREEZE AND AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. A SHORTENING OF THE PERIOD OF THE DANNY SWELL IN
WNA BULLETS SUGGESTS THE SWELL ALREADY WEAKENING.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...WHILE WIND AND WAVES WILL BOTH BE RATHER
MINIMAL DURING THE LONG TERM SOME UNCERTAINTY HAS CREPT INTO THE
WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. THE FRONT PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT TO PROGRESS
SOUTH OF THE REGION NOW MAY NOT DO SO DUE TO LINGERING ENERGY
ALOFT. FOR NOW IT SEEMS POSSIBLE AND PLAUSIBLE THAT MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM RETAINS AN ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT. DANNY SWELL CONTINUES
TO ABATE AND LIKELY BECOMES INDISCERNIBLE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

744 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THEN STALL NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM MONDAY...

REGARDING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...A LINGERING THREAT OF SCATTERED...
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN SANDHILLS AND COASTAL PLAIN WITH THE
RAIN THREAT SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPTICK IN THE CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION ARRIVES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES. WILL HOLD OFF INTRODUCTION OF POPS FOR NOW
WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST DETAILS FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEASONABLE TO EVER SO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 60S. -BLAES
&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM MONDAY...

24 HOUR TAF PERIOD: CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA HAS CEASED AT THIS TIME. AS
EXPECTED...HAVE SOME SUB VFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BOTH IN THE
TRIAD AND AT KRWI THIS MORNING. THESE SHOULD ONLY LAST FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS OR SO BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS. PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON WILL FIRST BE ASSOCIATED WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND THEN LATER WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH KINT AND KGSO NEAR 00Z WITH PASSAGE THROUGH KRDU
AFTER 6Z AND KFAY AND KRWI CLOSER TO 12Z TUESDAY. WHILE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER FRONTAL
PASSAGE. CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN TO ABOUT 5 KFT THIS AFTERNOON BUT
SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT/ELLIS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...ELLIS
LONG TERM...BLAES
AVIATION...ELLIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1108 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER PENNSYLVANIA WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH WILL
DOMINATE THE PATTERN OVER PENNSYLVANIA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SCT SHRA/TSRA ALONG COLD FRONT WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING
EAST OF KIPT AND KMDT...THEN FRONT WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE
OVERNIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ROTATES THRU BASE OF UPPER LOW OVR SE
ONTARIO. LOW PWAT AIR MASS WORKING INTO CENTRAL PA SHOULD BRING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT TO MUCH OF THE AREA. EXCEPTION MAY BE
WARREN COUNTY...WHERE INCREASINGLY COOL AIR ALOFT FLOWING OVR LK
ERIE COULD PRODUCE SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDINESS/SCT SHOWERS TOWARD
DAWN TUESDAY.

THE NW MTNS WILL REMAIN SUSCEPTIBLE TO A FEW LAKE EFFECT -SHRA
THRU TUESDAY...AS CHILLY AIR FLOWS ACROSS LK ERIE. GEFS 8H
TEMP ANOMALIES ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 SD BLW CLIMO. WHILE THE NW
MTNS WILL BE DEALING WITH MCLDY SKIES TUESDAY...DOWNSLOPING FLOW
SHOULD YIELD A SUNNY TUESDAY ACROSS THE SE COUNTIES. ENS MEAN 8H
TEMPS BTWN 8C-12C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS FROM THE U60S
ACROSS THE ALLEGHENY MTNS...TO NR 80F ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ALL MED RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MID-LATE WEEK WX WILL
BE DOMINATED BY LINGERING UPPER TROUGH OVR THE NORTHEAST CONUS. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING A COOL/DRY STRETCH OF WX WED-FRI. WILL MAINTAIN
THE CHC OF A FEW PM SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS WED-THU...RESULTING
FROM COOL POOL ALOFT CENTERED JUST NORTH OF PA. ANY RAINFALL AMTS
SHOULD BE NEGLIGIBLE.

MODERATING TEMPS AND CONTINUED DRY WX EXPECTED SAT...AS UPPER LOW
OVR SE CANADA LIFTS OUT AND SFC HIGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM UP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS SFC HIGH SLIPS
OFF THE EAST COAST AND RETURN SW FLOW DEVELOPS. GEFS/ECENS BOTH
INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
MIDWEST SUNDAY...SO HAVE INTRODUCED THE CHC OF PM SHOWERS THAT
DAY.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...BRINGING A
SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP QUIET AT THE MOMEMT...BUT AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES EASTWARD...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTMS WILL DEVELOP
STARTING LATE MORNING AND IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN HALF OF CWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. LOCAL RESTRICTIONS WILL BE CONFINED TO VICINITY OF
STORMS. WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE SW/W TO
AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15-18 MPH IN THE WEST...A BIT LIGHTER
IN THE EAST.

SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR TONIGHT AS WINDS WILL STAY UP JUST
ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

MUCH OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
AREA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SCT TO BKN DECK OF SC AND CU
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE EACH DAY. A FEW SHOWERS TOO. MOST OF
THE TIME VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...

TUE-THU...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS.

FRI...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AMARILLO TX

617 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THERE REMAINS A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE THIS DECK DIMINISH WITH TIME AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TERMINALS
TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A LOW
STRATUS DECK FOR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE SO HAVE BEGUN A LOWERING
TREND WHILE REMAINING OPTIMISTIC.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM...
SURFACE WINDS HAVE MADE A RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS
MORNING AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PROVIDED ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PANHANDLES. WE WILL LIKELY SEE
PERIODS OF INCREASED COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE
SHORTWAVES MOVE OVER THE AREA. MOST MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY ENDING
PRIOR TO NOON WITH THE HRRR BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS. THINK WE COULD SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PANHANDLES UNTIL NOON THEN TURN RELATIVELY PRECIP FREE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD REBOUND FAIRLY QUICKLY
INTO THE LOW TO MED 80S.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...TURNING
FLOW A BIT MORE NORTHERLY AND SHOULD RESULT IN A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. BY THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS WYOMING
AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE IS SUPPRESSED FURTHER SOUTH...UPPER
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND BRINGS A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. BULK SHEAR VALUES AND AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY DO NOT SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER...BUT A FEW
STRONG STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IF AVAILABLE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS LINE UP WITH PEAK
HEATING. BY FRIDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT INTO THE
PANHANDLES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. 00Z RUNS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
PUSH THE BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...BUT HAVE LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTHERN ZONES. BEYOND FRIDAY...MODELS VARY ON THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE BUILDING BACK IN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...AND WHETHER RESULTING
FLOW WILL BE MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR IF
CONVECTION WILL BE SOMEWHAT MORE SUPPRESSED UNDER THE RIDGE. FOR
NOW...HAVE TRENDED WITH A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THIS
COULD CHANGE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEHAVIOR
BECOMES MORE APPARENT.

ELSENHEIMER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

14/18

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

230 PM MST MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME REESTABLISHED TO THE NORTHEAST OF
ARIZONA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY RETURN BY THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY
THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANT MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A
COMBINATION OF WEAK MCVS AND INVERTED TROUGHS ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONE IN NRN MEXICO. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
DEPICTED EROSION OF CAPPING ALOFT WITH MOIST H5 TEMPERATURES COOLING
TO -7C TO -8C YIELDING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPER THAN USUAL FOR
THE MONSOON SEASON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SFC-H7 MOISTURE LEVELS WERE
SAMPLED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLES DAYS (ONLY 10-11 G/KG)
LEADING TO MLCAPES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER ONLY AROUND 500 J/KG.

SEVERAL CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
PROPAGATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OBJECTIVELY ANALYZED DEEP
EASTERLY OR NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WOULD GENERALLY PROMOTE DEEPER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MARCHING INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS FROM HIGH TERRAIN
STORM INITIATION POINTS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY HAS
ACTUALLY BEEN ADVECTING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER HIGH
TERRAIN...LOWERING INSTABILITY AND HINDERING ORGANIZED STORM
FORMATION. STRONGER JET LEVEL DIFLUENCE WAS LOCATED IN NRN
MEXICO...AND SHOULD BEGIN FORMULATING NORTHWARD BUT POSSIBLY NOT
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING AIDING IN LARGE SCALE ASCENT.

MORNING TRENDS IN THE HRRR AS WELL AS 12Z LOCAL WRF CORES SUGGESTED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING THROUGHOUT THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW
BRINGING DEEP OUTFLOWS AND LINEAR ASCENT TOWARDS THE PHOENIX METRO.
HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR TRENDS AND EARLY/MID AFTERNOON RADAR IMAGERY
YIELD HIGHER UNCERTAINTY ESPECIALLY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS NOW FALLING
INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S. SHOULD MORE BACKED WINDS UPSTREAM AT H7 AND
BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS LAYER BE ADVECTED WESTWARD...THAN MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. REGARDLESS...ANY
ACTIVITY AFFECTING CNTRL ARIZONA MAY BE MORE DELAYED INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEARLY AREAWIDE...PEAKING TUESDAY AS A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM INVERTED TROUGH AND SYNOPTIC SCALE UPPER
DIVERGENCE ROTATES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS INDICATE DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES PUSHING BEHIND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH PWATS IN A 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE (NEARLY THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF NAEFS MEAN). ALONG WITH THE ELEVATED POP
CHANCES...SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER SHOULD WORK TO LIMIT
DAYTIME HIGHS...OR AT LEAST DRAWING THEM BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS
/104 FOR PHOENIX AND 106 FOR YUMA/. HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD EASILY
BE COOLER FOR LOCALES AFFECTED BY THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAIN-
COOLED OUTFLOWS...AND BUFR SOUNDINGS AND ENSEMBLE MAJORITY MODEL
OUTPUT SUPPORT SUB-100 DEGREE HIGHS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST ON
WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/SHORTWAVE SHIFTS NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE
REPOSITIONING RIDGE CENTER. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION
ACROSS NM DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO
OLD MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ML AND UL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY TAKE UP SOUTHWESTERLY HEADINGS AGAIN...ONLY SLOWLY
THINNING AND DRAWING DOWN MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN. AS A
RESULT...POP CHANCES START DECREASING MORE NOTABLY BEGINNING
THURSDAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SETTLES BACK TO OUR SOUTH AND DEWPOINTS/PWATS
CONTINUE TO THIN...AIRMASS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM PROMPTING SFC
TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE WARMEST WESTERN DESERTS...INCLUDING EL CENTRO...YUMA
AND TACNA...COULD HIT THE 110F MARK BY FRIDAY AND A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER BY THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE LOCATIONS AROUND SOUTH-CENTRAL
AZ...INCLUDING THE PHX METRO AND GILA BEND...COULD POTENTIALLY REACH
THE 110F MARK BY THE WEEKEND. OVER THE LAST NORMAL PERIOD /1981-
2010/ THE AVERAGE LAST 110F DAY IN PHOENIX FALLS ON AUGUST 26TH
/SEPTEMBER 6TH FOR YUMA/. WE COULD CERTAINLY PUSH PAST THE AVERAGE
LAST DAY IN THE PHOENIX AREA BY THE WEEKEND...AND WORK TO CINCH THE
TOP SPOT FOR THE WARMEST AUGUST ON RECORD AT BOTH LOCALES TO CLOSE
OUT THE MONTH.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DISTANT MOUNTAINS NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX
AREA. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING OVER THE PHOENIX AREA ALONG WEAK CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES.

THROUGH 04Z TUE...WEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS...SCT TO BKN CLDS AOA 14
THSD MSL. ISOLD TSTM POSSIBLE. FROM 04Z TUE THROUGH 18Z THU...LGT
EAST WIND UNDER 9 KNOTS. BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
THROUGH 04Z TUE...SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 14 THSD MSL. ISOLATED TSTM. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WIND 8 TO 12 KNOTS. FROM 04Z TUE TO 18Z TUE...SOUTH
WIND 6 TO 10 KNOTS. SCT-BKN CLDS AOA 16 THSD MSL.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS FAR WEST
AS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AS MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THEREAFTER...THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE
TOWARDS DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS BACK TO
THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE RESULTING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RELEGATE
ISOLATED STORM ACTIVITY PRIMARILY TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
ARIZONA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW
NORMAL HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED BY FRIDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT AND TERRAIN-
DRIVEN AND CONSEQUENTLY AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...VASQUEZ
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

925 AM MST MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED TO OUR EAST...RESULTING IN
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS THROUGH
TUESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY RETURN BY MIDWEEK ALONG WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE BY NEXT WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
PREDOMINANT MIDLEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ALONG THE ARIZONA/UTAH BORDER THIS MORNING...WITH A
COMBINATION OF MCVS AND INVERTED TROUGHS ROTATING ABOUT THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF THIS ANTI-CYCLONE. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS DEPICTED
EROSION OF CAPPING ALOFT WITH MOIST H5 TEMPERATURES COOLING TO -7C
TO -8C YIELDING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPER THAN USUAL FOR THE
MONSOON SEASON. ON THE OTHER HAND...SFC-H7 MOISTURE LEVELS WERE
SAMPLED SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLES DAYS ("ONLY" 10-11
G/KG) LEADING TO MLCAPES SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER (JUST APPROACHING 500
J/KG THIS MORNING).

TRENDS IN RECENT HRRR ITERATIONS AS WELL AS LOCAL WRF CORES ARE
LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION ERUPTING
THROUGHOUT THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS...WITH FAVORABLE
STEERING FLOW AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE BRINGING DEEP
OUTFLOWS CAPABLE OF STRONG ASCENT WESTWARD TOWARDS THE PHOENIX
METRO. WHILE OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED WITH SOMEWHAT
MARGINAL MIXED LAYER MOISTURE...STRONGER LIFT AND MOISTURE IN THE
MIDLEVELS JUSTIFY THESE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL TRENDS. IN THE SHORT
TERM...MADE REVISIONS TO POP FORECASTS BASED ON SATELLITE AND HRRR
TRENDS...AS WELL AS MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
/439 AM MST MON AUG 24 2015/
RICH COMPLEXITY REMAINS IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST. AS THE SOUTHWEST
RETURNS TO A MORE ACTIVE MONSOON REGIME...THE COMBINATION OF PASSING
ML AND UL WAVES/ITS...MCVS FROM THE STORM COMPLEXES THAT DO DEVELOP
AND DEBRIS CLOUDS/WORKED OVER BOUNDARY LAYERS MAKE IT CHALLENGING TO
PINPOINT WHAT PERIODS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK MAY BE BEST FOR STORMS.
FOR TODAY...CONVECTION MAY BE OFFSET BY A FEW HOURS COMPARED TO THAT
ON SUNDAY...WHICH HAD STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE RIM BY MIDDAY. MOST HI-
RES MODELS AND FCST SOUNDINGS POINT TO THE 21-00Z RANGE OF SEEING
CONVECTION ALONG THE RIM AND MORE ISO. POCKETS OF SE AZ...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS TO HELP INITIATE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE LOWER DESERT ELEVATIONS INTO THE EVENING. ONE CONTINUING TREND
IN FCST GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE BACKING OFF OF THE CAPE
FORECAST...WITH NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SUB 500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ DESERTS AT AND AFTER 00Z. UPPER LEVEL ASCENT/DIFLUENCE
COURTESY OF THE 300/250MB CIRC CENTERS STILL WILL LIKELY PLAY A ROLE
IN SUPPORTING ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS IMPERIAL AND EASTERN RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES AS DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW EXTENDS INTO PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA OVERNIGHT.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE NEARLY AREAWIDE...PEAKING
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY. THIS AS THE NEXT IN THE SERIES OF UPSTREAM
INVERTED TROUGHS ROTATES IN TO ACT ON THE ALREADY DEEP MONSOON
MOISTURE SURFACE...NOW WITH PWATS IN THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE AND
PUSHING 90TH PERCENTILE OF NAEFS MEAN PWATS. ALONG WITH THE
ELEVATED/ABOVE CLIMO POP CHANCES...SIGNIFICANT DAYTIME CLOUD COVER
SHOULD WORK TO COOL DAYTIME HIGHS...AT LEAST DRAWING THEM BACK TO
SEASONAL NORMALS /104 FOR PHOENIX AND 106 FOR YUMA/ AND POSSIBLY
COOLER FOR LOCALES COOLED BY PRECIP ACTIVITY AND RAIN-COOLED
OUTFLOWS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE WEST TO EAST
ON WEDNESDAY AND FOCUS MORE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED IT SHIFTS IN RESPONSE TO THE REPOSITIONING RIDGE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION ACROSS NM
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO OLD
MEXICO LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. ML AND UL FLOW WILL TAKE UP
SOUTHWESTERLY HEADINGS AGAIN...GRADUALLY THINNING AND DRAWING DOWN
MOISTURE THROUGH THE COLUMN AND IN TURN...DECREASING OUR POP
CHANCES BEGINNING THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
LATEST GUIDANCE IS POINTING TO A LATER ONSET FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS INCLUDING THE PHOENIX AREA. FOR
MOST OF TODAY...EXPECT PERSISTENT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PROBABILITY IS HIGH FOR AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THESE STORMS TO DESCEND OUT OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE
PHOENIX AREA. EASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION MOST LIKELY AROUND 06Z TUESDAY. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LATEST TAFS REFLECT THE ACTIVITY PUSHING WEST OF
THE AREA AROUND 10Z.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND KBLH...
WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT WITH INCREASING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...THOUGH PROBABILITIES WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...MO/NOLTE
AVIATION...HIRSCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRSCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1253 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL IL AIRPORTS
THROUGH TUE. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS 5-6K FT TO OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING AND COULD BE SCATTERED ALONG I-74 CORRIDOR.
THESE SHALLOW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAUSED BY STRONG 553 DM
500 MB LOW JUST NE OF LAKE SUPERIOR THAT WEAKENS TO 557 DM AS IT
TRACKS INTO EAST CENTRAL ONTARIO BY 18Z/TUE. 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE 1001 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN NE
LAKE SUPERIOR GIVING BREEZY WNW WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 20-25
KTS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5-7 KTS AFTER
SUNSET AND BE NW AROUND 10 KTS WITH GUSTS 15-20 KTS AFTER 15Z/10
AM TUE.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

UPDATE...07
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HJS
AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

131 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 725 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131| PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND THE ONLY REAL AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE SOME PATCHY
VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY TEMPORARILY DROP
VSBYS AT LOZ AND SME TO MVFR LEVELS...BUT THE REMAINING TAF SITES
SHOULD BE UNAFFECTED AS THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...ABE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

339 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
TO UP HIGHS AND WORDING FOR EXCESSIVE HEAT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.DISCUSSION...
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IS UNFOLDING WITH SOME MID TO UPPER 90S
SOUTH AND WEST AHEAD OF THE COOL FRONT. HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 110 WILL LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

UPDATE...
LOWER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 AND TWEAK HIGHS FOR THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LEFT AS FAR RAIN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS IN BACK DOOR MODE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS I-20 IN LA AND EVENTUALLY E TX. SFC PRESSURE READINGS ARE
1020MB AT ELD AND ONLY A MB OR TWO LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF OUR CWA. HEATING WILL BE HELPFUL AS THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL HELP OUT TOO LATER
WITH MORE HEATING...BUT IN GENERAL...OUR POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
FROM NE TO SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW TO MID 70S
OBSERVED TO STILL BE IN PLACE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. /24/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION TIED TO UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AXIS ACROSS S AR/SE OK HAS
SHOWN TRENDS OF WEAKENING OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS OF N LA. THIS CONVECTION IS
ELEVATED AND THUS...CANNOT SEE ANY REAL OUTFLOW TO SPEAK OF FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR AND NEW 12Z GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THAT POSSIBILITY AS WE GO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE KEPT VCTS WITH TEMPO TSRA AT
THE TXK/ELD/SHV AND MLU TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FURTHER WEST
ACROSS OUR NE TX TERMINALS...HAVE TAKEN MENTION OF CONVECTION OUT
OF THE TERMINALS AND WILL HANDLE ANY RENEWED DEVELOPMENT WITH
AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...LARGE MID AND HIGH CLOUD
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ACROSS S AR WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPAND AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER
TODAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH SOME
STRONGER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS ASSUMING THEY BECOME ROOTED A
LITTLE CLOSER TO THE SURFACE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR MOSTLY A NNE
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 97 72 90 65 / 30 30 20 10
MLU 92 67 89 63 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 89 66 87 60 / 20 20 10 10
TXK 89 68 87 61 / 20 20 10 10
ELD 86 65 87 60 / 20 20 10 10
TYR 97 75 91 68 / 40 40 20 10
GGG 95 73 90 65 / 40 40 30 10
LFK 99 75 93 68 / 30 30 30 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1124 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.UPDATE...
LOWER POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-30 AND TWEAK HIGHS FOR THE DAY.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY LITTLE LEFT AS FAR RAIN AREAS AROUND DAYBREAK. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS IN BACK DOOR MODE AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CROSS I-20 IN LA AND EVENTUALLY E TX. SFC PRESSURE READINGS ARE
1020MB AT ELD AND ONLY A MB OR TWO LESS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
OF OUR CWA. HEATING WILL BE HELPFUL AS THERE IS NOT MUCH FORCING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL HELP OUT TOO LATER
WITH MORE HEATING...BUT IN GENERAL...OUR POPS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
FROM NE TO SW OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
WE HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE
TEMPS WERE RUNNING A LITTLE WARM IN THE GRIDS WITH LOW TO MID 70S
OBSERVED TO STILL BE IN PLACE. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS
TIME. /24/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1104 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 203 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT FALLING INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
INTERSTATE 30 CORRIDOR AND LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ZONES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 94 73 90 66 / 30 30 20 10
MLU 93 68 89 64 / 30 10 10 10
DEQ 87 65 88 61 / 20 20 10 10
TXK 89 67 87 62 / 30 20 20 10
ELD 87 66 87 60 / 30 20 10 10
TYR 96 74 92 69 / 20 40 30 10
GGG 96 72 91 66 / 30 40 30 10
LFK 98 74 93 68 / 30 30 30 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/13/05

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

441 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 440 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOW AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP MID
LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WITH 500MB HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OF 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE LONG TERM LATE AUG
AVG. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES ARE ROTATING AROUND THE CIRCULATION. ONE IS
JUST E OF LAKE SUPERIOR...ANOTHER IS NEAR LAKE NIPIGON AND A THIRD
IS MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI. SHRA HAD NOT BEEN AS NMRS AS EXPECTED
OVER UPPER MI UNTIL RECENTLY WHEN SHORTWAVE REACHED WRN UPPER MI.
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THERE HAD BEEN A RATHER
SOLID BAND OF SHRA...EXTENDING FROM AROUND LAKE NIPIGON SE AND E TO
ERN LAKE SUPERIOR IN SHARP CYCLONIC FLOW/ZONE OF WAA/RATHER FOCUSED
THETA-E ADVECTION. 850MB THERMAL TROF WITH 850MB TEMPS AS LOW AS 1C
AT KINL PER 12Z RAOBS RUNS FROM NRN MN INTO NRN WI/SRN UPPER MI
AND TOWARD LWR MI.

ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...SHORTWAVE NEAR LAKE NIPIGON LOOKS
QUITE VIGOROUS...AND CANADIAN RADARS SHOW DECENT SHIELD OF SHRA
ADVANCING S WITH FEATURE. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER INCREASE IN SHRA
COVERAGE OVER THE W IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. MEANWHILE...SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS WRN UPPER MI WILL SPREAD INCREASED SHRA
ACTIVITY EASTWARD INTO THE ERN FCST AREA. AT THE SAME TIME...
VEERING WINDS WILL HELP PUSH THE SHRA OVER THE ERN LAKE SE INTO THE
ERN FCST AREA AS WELL. LAKE NIPIGON SHORTWAVE WILL THEN CONTINUE TO
AID SHRA ACTIVITY OVER THE E THRU LATE EVENING INTO AT LEAST THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW AND WEAK WAA WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCT/NMRS SHRA OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPS WILL BE LOW
ENOUGH...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
WARMEST WATER RESIDES...TO ADD A LAKE COMPONENT TO PCPN AS WELL.
UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PCPN WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE WRN FCST AREA.

ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL LOW DRIFTS FARTHER E ON TUE AND HEIGHT RISES
CONTINUE...LINGERING DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW/UPSLOPING AND SOME LAKE
COMPONENT WILL KEEP SHRA GOING...ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS NORMALLY
FAVORED BY NW WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF SHRA
SHOULD TEND TO SHOW SOME DIMINISHING TREND DURING THE DAY. IT WILL
BE ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY UNDER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER. COOLEST
CONDITIONS (MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS) WILL BE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND WHERE PCPN IS MOST FREQUENT. NEW RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS MAY BE SET
AT SOME LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

DAMP AND FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MODERATION TOWARD
MORE SEASONAL WEATHER BY THU INTO THE WEEKEND. A DEEP CLOSED MID/UPPER
LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF JAMES BAY WILL GRADUALLY FILL AND MOVE INTO QUEBEC
WED. RIDGING WILL THEN PUSH BACK TOWARD THE WESTERN LAKES BY THU INTO
THE WEEKEND.

TUE NIGHT AND WED...AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SHIFTS TO THE EAST...MODELS
SUGGEST THAT MAINLY NNW FLOW WITH 330-340 WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH
850 MB TEMPS REMAINING AROUND 6C INTO EARLY WED. WITH THE NNW FLOW
AND MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN LAKE...EXPECT THE
GREATEST -SHRA COVERAGE INTO N CNTRL UPPER MI EVEN AS THE AMOUNTS
DIMINISH. THE PCPN WILL DIMINISH AND END WED AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. MAX TEMPS ARE EXPECTED REBOUND BACK INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 60S.

FRI-MON...UNCERTAINTY INCREASES DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING
THE POSITION OF THE SFC FRONT AND IMPACT OF A SHRTWV MOVING OUT OF
THE PLAINS. THE ECMWF HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT IN KEEPING MOST
OF THE PCPN WITH THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND WEST OF WI. THIS WOULD ALLOW
A WEAK SFC FRONT/TROUGH TO SLIDE TOWARD OR INTO UPPER MI. THE FRONT
COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WNW FLOW SHRTWVS SUPPORTS CONTINUED
CHANCE SHRA/TSRA POPS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED
AWAY FROM PCPN FOR SAT INTO MON AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

A GUSTY NW FLOW OF COOL...MOIST AIR AROUND LOW PRES TO THE NE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL BRING PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS TO
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THE FCST PERIOD. IN GENERAL...KCMX WILL SEE THE
WORST CONDITIONS...WITH MORE FREQUENT...HEAVIER SHRA AND SOME
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN THE PRESENCE OF A MORE
PRONOUNCED UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT. ALSO EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT THE MORE EXPOSED KCMX TERMINAL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ROLFSON
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

431 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON POPS/LK EFFECT SHOWERS
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STACKED/CLOSED LO THAT IS FCST TO
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE ESE AND TO THE NE OF THE SAULT BY 12Z TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE) ISSUED AT
455 AM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR LSZ162-
263-265.

GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT /4 PM CDT/ THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LSZ240>243.

LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

157 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

COOL, CLOSED CANADIAN LOW OVER LOWER CANADA LATE WEDNESDAY WILL
OPEN UP AND SLIDE EASTWARD AS A TROF BY THURSDAY.

THE UL LOW WILL KEEP REGIONAL TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE LARGELY RAIN-FREE AND
PLEASANT, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN
FA.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE CNY/NEPA FLIGHT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SPOTTY
SHOWERS WERE PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR...AS WELL AS A STUBBORN DECK OF
CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY THAT HAD YET TO MIX HIGHER AS OF 18Z.

EXPECT ALL AREAS TO SEE VFR WITH LOCALIZED MVFR AT TIMES THROUGH
ABOUT 21Z-23Z THIS AFTERNOON. LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW
SCT-BKN CU TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING TO SKC-SCT250. THIS SETS THE
STAGE THEN FOR LATE NIGHT FOG FORMATION AND HAVE SUGGESTED AT
LEAST SOME DENSE FOG AT KELM AND A MVFR STRATUS CIG AT
KAVP...ALTHOUGH SFC CONDITIONS WILL BE FIGHTING SOME MODEST
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND MIXING. CONFIDENCE LOW-MED...SO MONITOR
CLOSELY.

TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SCT-BKN CU DEVELOPING AGAIN TOWARD 15Z AFTER
ANY MORNING FOG BURN OFF.

WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT SW...BECOMING WEST 5-15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LIGHT/VRBL TONIGHT. GENERALLY WNW-WSW 5-10 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...
TUE THROUGH SAT. NO SIG WX EXPECTED. GENERALLY VFR WITH LOCAL
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE DUE TO VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN/MDP
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...DJP/HEDEN
AVIATION...JAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

130 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG THE PIEDMONT TROUGH...BUT OTHERWISE DRY AIR IS
WINNING OUT TODAY. HAVE UPDATED POP TO BEST MATCH RADAR BUT
OTHERWISE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION REMAINS ON TRACK:

AS OF 1000 MONDAY...BROAD TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE TODAY...AS TWO DISTINCT SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH IT AND
OVERHEAD THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SLOWLY FROM THE
WEST IS CURRENTLY CRESTING THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS...AND WILL
BE ON THE DOORSTEP OF THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE VALUES...UPR 80S TO AROUND 90
AREA-WIDE. LOWS WILL STAY A BIT ABOVE CLIMO NORMS FOR LATE
AUGUST...FALLING TO AROUND 70 WELL INLAND...73 AT THE COAST

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...PWATS ARE DECENT...THERE JUST SEEMS TO BE TOO MUCH DRY
AIR IN THE MID LAYERS TO SUPPORT MUCH CONVECTION. IT WILL BE
ISOLATED MAINLY CONFINED TO THE RESULTANT AND THE PIEDMONT TROUGH.
SE FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS....WITH MAINLY
SOUTHERLY WINDS WELL INLAND. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIE
DIURNALLY AROUND 22Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...BEST CHANCE INLAND.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED. BRIEF MORNING
FOG/STRATUS IS ALSO EXPECTED EACH DAY.

.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW:

AS OF 1000 AM MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE WATERS
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...BUT EVEN SO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
REMAIN WEAK. THIS WILL KEEP WINDS VERY LIGHT TODAY...WITH THE LATEST
OB FROM 41013 REPORTING ONLY 3 KTS AND JUST 1 KT AT JMPN7. THESE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TODAY AND BECOME S/SE...BUT REMAIN AT
10 KTS OR LESS EVEN WITHIN THE NEAR-SHORE SEA BREEZE. THESE LIGHT
WINDS WILL KEEP THE WAVE SPECTRUM SWELL DOMINATED...WITH 2 DISTINCT
SWELLS PRESENT. WHILE BOTH OF THESE SWELLS WILL BE FROM THE SE...THE
PERIODS WILL BE VASTLY DIFFERENT. AN 8-9 SEC SE SWELL...THE TYPICAL
GROUND SWELL...WILL BE FEATURED...BUT A MUCH LONGER 12 SEC SWELL
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE...LIKELY SOME FORERUNNER SWELL ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL ENERGY IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALL OF THE
WAVE GROUPS WILL BE OF LOW AMPLITUDE HOWEVER...SO TOTAL SEAS WILL
REMAIN 1-3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...17
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43/17

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX

340 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...HAVE JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TODAY THAT THE SEA BREEZE HAS BEEN ABLE TO KICK UP A FEW
SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED ISO TRW WORDING FOR EVERYWHERE WEST OF THE
CURRENT SEA BREEZE POSITION WITH A 10 POP FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE HAVE NOT BEEN ANY STORMS YET...ONE COULD
DEVELOP. A SEMI-ORGANIZED COMPLEX OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE SEA BREEZE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...WITH A NORTHWEST
PROGRESSION...WHILE EXPECT THIS TO WEAKEN AS THE SUN GOES DOWN
HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR SOUTHERN WEBB COUNTY IN CASE SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS SURVIVE THAT LONG. HRRR MODEL WOULD INDICATE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NOTED ACROSS MAINLY NORTH TEXAS. MODELS
TRYING TO INDICATE A SECONDARY PUSH OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
TOMORROW A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ALONG WITH
MINIMAL POOLED MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN NORTHEAST ZONES DURING THE
DAY...MOSTLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. TRIMMED BACK THE 30 POPS A
BIT...AS MODELS HAVE GENERALLY BACKED OFF MOISTURE. TUESDAY NIGHT
GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED AS THE 12Z NAM WENT OUT ON A LIMB WITH
SEEMINGLY UNREALISTIC FEATURES AND A MOISTURE BULLSEYE. THE 18Z
HAS COMPLETELY FLIPPED ON THIS. THE GFS DOES STILL PRODUCE SOME
QPF ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA SO SILL STICK
WITH A 20 POP JUST IN CASE...HOWEVER THINK WE/LL BE MAINLY DRY.
HAVE 30 POPS CONTINUING OFFSHORE WHERE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENTLY
INDICATING QPF.

WIND PATTERN MAINLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD...BUT SHOULD GET SOME ORGANIZATION IN A LIGHT TO MODERATE
FASHION OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...ADEQUATE MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. VERY DRY AIR
MASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR OF JUST
BELOW 1 INCH. THIS WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LOWS WITH
UPPER 60S EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS. 12Z GFS IS HANDLING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LOW OR SHEAR AXIS DIFFERENTLY THAN THE ECM.
THE UPPER LOW/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY
MORNING WILL EITHER MOVE TO THE WEST OR BECOME REINFORCED BY A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY WITH
AN UPPER LOW FORMING OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY MONDAY. 00Z ECM KEPT THE
UPPER LOW OR SHEAR AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY. INTRODUCTION OF POPS OVER THE GULF WATERS WILL OCCUR ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN MODELS HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WILL ONLY SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE COASTAL PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 77 96 77 95 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
VICTORIA 75 96 75 96 70 / 10 30 20 20 10
LAREDO 76 102 76 101 75 / 20 10 10 20 10
ALICE 75 98 75 98 71 / 10 10 20 20 10
ROCKPORT 78 94 79 94 76 / 10 20 20 20 10
COTULLA 75 102 75 100 73 / 10 10 10 20 10
KINGSVILLE 75 97 76 97 72 / 10 10 20 20 10
NAVY CORPUS 78 92 79 93 78 / 10 10 20 20 10

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

PZ/83...SHORT TERM
TT/89...LONG TERM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

329 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A weak cold front is stalled generally along a line from near
Barnhart...to Eldorado...to Brady. A cumulus field has developed
this afternoon in the vicinity of the front. The HRRR continues to
depict isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity in
the vicinity of the boundary this afternoon and early evening.
Uncertainty remains on the extent of convection this afternoon,
but slight chance PoPs were kept for much of the area, with the
best chance across the southern two thirds of the area. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible, as very slow movement is
expected. In addition, isolated downbursts will be possible. Most
of the convection is expected to dissipate shortly after sunset,
with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight lows will generally be
in the 70s, although a few locations may drop into the upper 60s.

Models continue to indicate an upper level disturbance moving
across the area Tuesday in the north flow aloft. This in
combination with what is left of the dissipating cold front will
result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon, with the best chance across the eastern half of the
region. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 90s.

Daniels

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Monday)

The extended portion of the forecast will be mainly dry, and
continued hot with temperatures averaging 5 or more degrees above
normal through next weekend.

Decided to keep slight chance PoPs going through Tuesday evening
as a weak front continues to ease southward. The best chances by
Tuesday evening should be generally south of a San Saba to
Eldorado line where the front is expected to move to by the
evening hours. Once again, if these storms develop, the main
hazards will be gusty winds, and dangerous lightning. Have also
kept very low end slight chance PoPs Wednesday afternoon and early
evening as remnant outflow boundaries possibly left behind by
Tuesday`s activity could result in isolated showers or storms
Wednesday afternoon.

From Thursday through the weekend, the upper level ridge over the
southwestern U. S. will keep our weather hot and dry. Have
nudged afternoon highs up a degree or two for the second half of
the week as the ridge takes control, allowing the atmosphere to
warm. Another cold front could possibly move into the area next
weekend, but models show it struggling to make progress southward
after reaching west central Texas, so will just trend temperatures
downward a couple degrees next weekend into Monday for now.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 95 72 97 / 10 20 10 5
San Angelo 72 98 71 100 / 20 20 10 10
Junction 71 97 70 98 / 20 30 20 20

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

214 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

.AVIATION...THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE HAS FIRED OFF A SMALL CLUSTER
OF CONV THAT IS STRADDLING THE RIO GRANDE MOVING EAST AT AROUND 10
KNOTS. AT THIS TIME THIS CLUSTER OF CELLS MAY IMPACT THE MFE
AIRPORT AREA ON THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME
BRIEF REDUCTIONS OF VSBYS AND CEILINGS. ADDITIONAL CONV IS FIRING
FURTHER EAST OFFSHORE BUT MAY DIE OFF AS IT GETS CLOSER TO THE
MORE STABLE OUTFLOW LEFT OVER FROM THE CONV TO THE WEST. WILL
UPDATE THE MFR TAF TO ENHANCE THE CONV WORDING A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE EXPECT THE CONV TO MOVE WEST AND DISIPATE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES FURTHER WEST AND THE
DIURNAL HEATING DIES OFF. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE RGV AIRPORTS THROUGH MIDDAY TOMORROW.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...EAST WINDS WILL REMAIN MODEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR KHRL AND KMFE LATE
AFTERNOON. BE ALERT FOR VARYING GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED IS DUE TO
DOWNPOURS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...WHILE H5 RIDGE CONTINUES TO
STRETCH ACROSS TEXAS...WEAK H2 CUTOFF LOW IS DRIFTING ACROSS THE
SW GULF. SOME OF THE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO FAR SOUTH TEXAS DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. PW VALUES ALSO
RISING LATER THIS MORNING...BUT MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED TO
LOWER LEVELS. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO ALLOW THE
SEABREEZE TO SPARK ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STEERING FLOW IS MODEST ENOUGH THAT THE
SEABREEZE WILL PROGRESS INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE
WILL BE GREATEST ALONG THE RIVER...SO HAVE TAILORED POP CHANCES TO
THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WHATS LEFT OF THE H2 LOW WILL OPEN UP
BUT REMAIN IN THE REGION TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. DRIER AIR MOVES
BACK INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...LIMITING POP CHANCES
CONSIDERABLY.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...500MB RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A 500MB TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
TUESDAY WILL ALLOW A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL
ALLOW LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO POOL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS
COAST TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR REACHES THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUES NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
RESULT. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT WILL PROVIDE SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD DEPENDS ON WHICH OF THE GLOBAL MODELS HAS A BETTER HANDLE
OF THE 500MB SHEAR AXIS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY. THE
ECWMF PROGS AN INVERTED TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPING WITH THIS FEATURE
SATURDAY AND BRINGS IT WESTWARD SUNDAY WHILE THE GFS HAS A 500MB
LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. WILL GO WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND ONLY MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
NOW THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILING
OVER THE GULF OF MEX EXPECT THE MSL FIELD TO REMAIN FAIRLY
RELAXED. THIS WILL RESULT IN FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS THROUGH
TOMORROW WITH NO SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TUES NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS
WEDNESDAY WILL DIMINISH THURSDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF. LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THURSDAY WILL
VEER TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE MOVES EASTWARD.

BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 94 77 91 / 10 10 20 20
BROWNSVILLE 78 96 77 93 / 10 10 20 20
HARLINGEN 77 99 75 96 / 10 10 20 20
MCALLEN 80 101 78 99 / 10 10 20 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 76 101 76 99 / 10 10 20 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 80 88 78 86 / 10 10 30 30

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...60
LONG TERM...54

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
130 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 24/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through 25/18Z.
Beginning to see signs of convective development over the Davis
Mountains south across the Marfa Plateau and much of Brewster
County. Isolated TSRA is possible just about anywhere today, but
confidence is sufficiently low to preclude mention of TSRA at any
one terminal. Shortly after sunset, isolated thunderstorm
development will wane, leaving the area with a bit of convective
debris aloft and light and variable winds at the surface.

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Latest mesoanalysis suggests an area of convergence and fronto-
genesis along I-10 roughly centered around KFST. In addition,
surface theta analyses indicate something resembling a baroclinic
zone extending from the Davis Mountains east-northeastward to
north central Texas. We do see a weak core west of SH 118 south
of Kent and MOGR CU over much of southwest TX extending northeast
into the southern Permian Basin.

There`s plenty of moisture around with surface Tds in the lower
60s, with localized higher amounts where it rained yesterday.
Precipitable water values are running around 1.5. There`s a bit of
instability to be had, but mid level lapse rates are anemic and
wind shear is pretty much nonexistent. As a result, low-level cold
pools will play a critical role in secondary CI and upscale
growth. The last series of HRRR runs are optimistic about
scattered TSRA across the southern Permian Basin while the NSSL
WRF and TTU WRF are less optimistic. Right now I`m leaning more
toward the less optimistic side, but wouldn`t be surprised to see
CI somewhere in the southern Basin by 21Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 621 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. There is a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening but probabilities are too small to mention at this time.
Winds will remain generally light and will shift from the
northeast to the east and southeast during the day today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 400 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not many changes to current forecast. Area radars show convection
has diminished across most of the FA, w/only a few -SHRA in NW Eddy
County. MRMS estimates indicate that the Wrn Low Rolling Plains and
Permian Basin fared best w/regards to rainfall last night,
w/widespread estimates over 1", and totals as high as 5-6". Latest
sfc analysis shows the old cold front down in the Big Bend Area/Lwr
Trans Pecos, but a secondary surge of cold air is currently moving
thru Southeast New Mexico, the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, and Permian
Basin. W/these two fronts in the area, as well as residual
boundaries from yesterday`s activity, at least a slight chance of
thunderstorms will persist throughout the day across most of West
Texas and SE NM. Buffer soundings suggest temps this afternoon will
be blo normal north, abv normal south, although cloud cover,
convection, and antecedent soil moisture will all combine to
frustrate things.

Otherwise, WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over the Gulf
Coast, but this is still forecast to build west as the Great Lakes
trough amplifies during the week. Thicknesses will increase through
Friday, w/a corresponding ramp-up of temperatures to the upper 90s
most locations for the weekend. Long-range models park the ridge
over the SW CONUS/Nrn Mexico by the end of the extended, w/chances
of rain after today slim-to-none.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS AMARILLO TX

1245 PM CDT MON AUG 24 2015

.AVIATION...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT BELOW A GENERALLY CLEAR
SKY WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT.

EXPECT TO SEE A SMALL AMOUNT OF CUMULUS DEVELOP...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WHERE HIGHER 700 MB THETA-E VALUES
EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED...IN REGION MORE DISPLACED FROM SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS MAY LEAD TO STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AT EASTERN
TERMINALS AROUND 12Z TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME DO NOT EXPECT ENOUGH
COVERAGE TO CONSTITUTE AN IFR OR MVFR CEILING.

COCKRELL

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO START OFF THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. THERE REMAINS A
BROKEN TO OVERCAST DECK OF NEAR MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE THIS DECK DIMINISH WITH TIME AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TERMINALS
TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY ROTATE
AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. AN
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR A LOW
STRATUS DECK FOR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE SO HAVE BEGUN A LOWERING
TREND WHILE REMAINING OPTIMISTIC.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON AUG 24 2015/

ELSENHEIMER

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

03/08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

644 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...EXITING
THE PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXTEND
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BRING A DRIER
AIRMASS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 630 PM EDT MONDAY...

KFCX 88D RADAR WAS DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS...AND EVEN MORE
ISOLATED...THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHSIDE VIRGINIA. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS LOCATED ALONG AND EAST OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...CURRENTLY NEAR A MARTINSVILLE TO LYNCHBURG
LINE. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE MAKING PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...AND EXIT THE REGION BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 1100
PM. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE FOCUSED ON
PUTTING HIGHER POPS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY WHERE CONFIDENCE IN A CONTINUATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
IS HIGHEST.

AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

SURFACE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRAVEL EAST THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.
SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AT 18Z INDICATED SFC BASED CAPES FROM 1 TO 2K
J/KG EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FLUX
CONVERGENCE WAS ENHANCED JUST EAST OF BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS. THE DAY
ONE CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK KEEPS OUR AREA IN GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BETTER THREAT FOR STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION REMAINS TO
OUR NORTH WITH THE BETTER DYNAMICS. AN ISOLATED PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EAST...BUT GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY...LACK OF ROBUST UPDRAFTS AND WEST FLOW...SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT EXPECTED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. LEANED POPS TOWARDS HRRR FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN BLENDED ISC GRIDS TOWARDS
SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOW AND STALL TO OUR EAST ALONG THE COASTAL
PLAIN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTS
NORTHWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST INTO OUR
REGION TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL LAG A FEW HOURS AS
USUAL BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT...BUT SHARP DEWPOINT DROPS NOTED IN THE
OHIO VALLEY. SHAPED LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS TO
COOLER COOP MOS VALUES. IT SHOULD BE A GOOD NIGHT TO OPEN THE
WINDOWS WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE MOUNTAINS
TO THE MID 60S IN THE PIEDMONT CLOSER TO FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

ALOFT THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH AN EASTERN TROF AND GREAT
LAKES CLOSED LOW SLOWING TRAVELING EAST TUESDAY. UNDER PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS
FROM THE UPPER 60S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE MID 80S IN
THE PIEDMONT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

LARGE LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH FOR LATE AUGUST WILL BE SLIDING EAST ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE WEEK ALLOWING COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD
INTO AND NORTH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP OVERALL
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE PER DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST ALONG THE RESIDUAL
FRONT...WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SUPPORTIVE OF COOL NIGHTS AND MOSTLY
SUNNY DAYS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE 5H TROUGH WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE
INTERACTION WITH MOISTURE TO THE EAST ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...AND EARLY ON FOR MORE UPSLOPE INDUCED CLOUDS WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THAT LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL ONLY BOOST CLOUDS A BIT AND LEAVE
OUT POPS FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE TEMPS THE MAIN CONCERN GIVEN THE ARRIVAL OF THE COOLEST AIR
ALOFT WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND SUBSEQUENT REINFORCING POCKETS OF 85H
COOL ADVECTION INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER TIMING OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY EARLY
WEDNESDAY SUGGESTS PERHAPS MORE UPSLOPE CLOUDS FAR WEST AND SOME MIXING
OUTSIDE OF THE VALLEYS GIVEN THE SURFACE HIGH STILL WELL UPSTREAM. THUS
BUMPED UP LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE DEEPEST
VALLEYS SEEING A FEW 40S AND MAINLY 50S ELSEWHERE. NOT QUITE AS COOL
THURSDAY MORNING BUT STILL 50S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST GIVEN A SLIGHT
REBOUND IN DEWPOINTS OUT EAST. EXPECT HIGHS TO RECOVER TO JUST BELOW
SEASONAL LEVELS PENDING HEATING OF DRY AIR SO TRENDED CLOSER TO THE
LATEST MOS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

UPPER TROUGH WILL BE LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK
RESULTING IN BRIEF ZONAL 5H FLOW BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SE AROUND THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST AND INTO THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW A RATHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK TO SETTLE SOUTH AND OVERHEAD DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE WEAKENING INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST MODELS DEPICT THIS
SCENARIO IN KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE WITH THE OLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST
WITH PERHAPS THE REMNANT WAVE OF DANNY SPAWNING A WEAK LOW OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER GUIDANCE ALSO INDICATES JUST
ENOUGH TROPICAL MOISTURE RETURN BY DAYS 6/7 UNDER THE WEAKENING SURFACE
RIDGE AND SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT TO BRING A RETURN OF LEAST SOME DIURNAL
ISOLATED/SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY. OTRW SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY WITH SEASONAL TEMPS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...THEN A REBOUND TOWARD HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS 80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT MONDAY...

SCT TO BKN MVFR CLOUDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT. SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON MOST OF
THE CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THE
PIEDMONT. HELD ON TO THE VCSH IN WESTERN TAF SITES FOR A FEW HOURS
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN VCTS AT ROA/LYH/DAN FOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. WEST WINDS WILL HINDER CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF STORMS...HARD TO SAY WHICH
TAF LOCATION HAS BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...BUT LEND TOWARDS
DAN.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. MODELS
ADVERTISING FOG AT LWB/BCB AND BLF...BUT BELIEVE THE DRIER AIR
WILL WIN OUT AND KEEP FOG TO A MINIMUM. JUST AT SOME LIGHT FOG AT
LWB OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITY AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER THROUGH MIDWEEK KEEPING IT
VFR. MAY SEE SOME LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG THAT
DISSIPATES QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE IN THE FAVORED TERMINALS LWB/BCB.
MVFR DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...DS/KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

313 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM EDT MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 1245 PM EDT MONDAY...

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 147 PM EDT MONDAY...

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITY AND WINDS
DURING THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...KK/WP
NEAR TERM...KK
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...KK/WP