Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/16/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 355 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

CURRENTLY...

SCTD STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ONE
ROUGE SHOWER WAS OVER NORTHERN BENT COUNTY. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. LLVL MSTR IS A BIT LESS TODAY THEN PAST
DAYS...AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE CAPE OVER THE REGION AS VALUES
WERE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

UNLIKE YDAY...HRRR HAS BEEN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH CONVECTION
TODAY. EARLIER RUNS WERE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. HRRR STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS IS STILL CONCEIVABLY POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW PLAYED UP POPS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR THE PLAINS...BELIEVE LARGE
MAJORITY OF PLAINS (AWAY FROM THE MTNS) WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A
ROUGE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS. ANY STORM OVER THE REGION TODAY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATELLITE WAT VAPOR IMGY STILL
SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OVER THE AREA. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE
THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS IN WHICH IT RAINED HEAVILY LAST NIGHT.

FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD COME
TO AN END AS LITTLE FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...

WX SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX AS UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
STAGNANT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND WEAK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. . MOST PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MTNS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LONGER TERM WITH POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
BEING PRIMARY CONCERNS.

INITIALLY...RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SOME OF THE LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE 12Z/14TH GFS40 SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT
A RELATIVELY HEALTHY UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY MORNING MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z/14TH ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES THAT
A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UTAH/NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO REGION TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATER
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE SURGES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE TO ABUNDANT DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...SURFACE SURGES/BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVE POPS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IF THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION IS ACCURATE. STORMS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MAY BE INTENSE/STRONG
AT TIMES. THEN...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED BY
LATE WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SHOULD GENERALLY RUN AT OR ABOVE MID-AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...WITH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF BEING NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY
ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS NEXT 24H. CANT RULE OUT A TSRA OR TWO AT THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE UP AT KCOS. KPUB WILL
LIKELY...AT LEAST...SEE GUSTY NW OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 00Z TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

CURRENTLY...

SCTD STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ONE
ROUGE SHOWER WAS OVER NORTHERN BENT COUNTY. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. LLVL MSTR IS A BIT LESS TODAY THEN PAST
DAYS...AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE CAPE OVER THE REGION AS VALUES
WERE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.

REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

UNLIKE YDAY...HRRR HAS BEEN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH CONVECTION
TODAY. EARLIER RUNS WERE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. HRRR STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS IS STILL CONCEIVABLY POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW PLAYED UP POPS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR THE PLAINS...BELIEVE LARGE
MAJORITY OF PLAINS (AWAY FROM THE MTNS) WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A
ROUGE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS. ANY STORM OVER THE REGION TODAY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATELLITE WAT VAPOR IMGY STILL
SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OVER THE AREA. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE
THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS IN WHICH IT RAINED HEAVILY LAST NIGHT.

FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD COME
TO AN END AS LITTLE FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

SATURDAY...

WX SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX AS UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
STAGNANT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND WEAK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. . MOST PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MTNS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LONGER TERM WITH POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
BEING PRIMARY CONCERNS.

INITIALLY...RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

SOME OF THE LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE 12Z/14TH GFS40 SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT
A RELATIVELY HEALTHY UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY MORNING MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z/14TH ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES THAT
A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UTAH/NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO REGION TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATER
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THURSDAY EVENING.

AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE SURGES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE TO ABUNDANT DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...SURFACE SURGES/BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVE POPS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IF THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION IS ACCURATE. STORMS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MAY BE INTENSE/STRONG
AT TIMES. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.

LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SHOULD GENERALLY RUN AT OR ABOVE MID-AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...WITH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF BEING NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY
ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS NEXT 24H. CANT RULE OUT A TSRA OR TWO AT THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE UP AT KCOS. KPUB WILL
LIKELY...AT LEAST...SEE GUSTY NW OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 00Z TODAY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1154 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HRRR SHOWING BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS
REGION FOR LATER ON TODAY. /HODANISH

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST STARTS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT SLC...GJT AND DEN
WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT ABQ WITH PWATS AROUND 1/2 INCH LAST
NIGHT.

WITH NO EVIDENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...THE LATEST MODELS...INCLUDING HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC...ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. WITH TERRAIN INDUCED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENTS PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS SAT...WHICH SUGGESTS
MAXES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FRIDAY`S NUMBERS. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS) SUN...FORECAST CAPES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY
EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM I25 EASTWARD. FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS...WITH READINGS DRIFTING DOWN JUST A DEGF OR TWO FROM SAT.

MOIST PLUME THINS SLIGHTLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY WRN CO AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HOLD ON TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED/SCT POPS MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MAX TEMPS MON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD.

FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD DEPENDS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH QUICK PEEK AT 06Z GFS
SHOWS A FASTER TROUGH THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION. CONCEPTUALLY...SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE ONE WE WOULD SEE IN SEPT/OCT...WITH STRONG W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM SHOVING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL
EAST...LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. COLD FRONT
THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUE OR WED...WITH UPSLOPE SURGE PERHAPS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER WEST. IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD
LINGER WED INTO THU AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT...THOUGH GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FASTER 00Z EURO/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. FORECAST TUE INTO THU IS
RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A
GRADUALLY COOLING TREND WED-THU AS TROUGH PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EACH TAF SITE (KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE BEST THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCOS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AT KPUB...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AERODROME AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STORMS IN AND AROUND KALS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1136 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST STARTS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT SLC...GJT AND DEN
WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT ABQ WITH PWATS AROUND 1/2 INCH LAST
NIGHT.

WITH NO EVIDENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...THE LATEST MODELS...INCLUDING HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC...ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. WITH TERRAIN INDUCED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENTS PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS SAT...WHICH SUGGESTS
MAXES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FRIDAY`S NUMBERS. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS) SUN...FORECAST CAPES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY
EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM I25 EASTWARD. FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS...WITH READINGS DRIFTING DOWN JUST A DEGF OR TWO FROM SAT.

MOIST PLUME THINS SLIGHTLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY WRN CO AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HOLD ON TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED/SCT POPS MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MAX TEMPS MON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD.

FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD DEPENDS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH QUICK PEEK AT 06Z GFS
SHOWS A FASTER TROUGH THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION. CONCEPTUALLY...SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE ONE WE WOULD SEE IN SEPT/OCT...WITH STRONG W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM SHOVING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL
EAST...LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. COLD FRONT
THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUE OR WED...WITH UPSLOPE SURGE PERHAPS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER WEST. IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD
LINGER WED INTO THU AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT...THOUGH GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FASTER 00Z EURO/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. FORECAST TUE INTO THU IS
RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A
GRADUALLY COOLING TREND WED-THU AS TROUGH PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EACH TAF SITE (KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE BEST THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCOS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AT KPUB...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AERODROME AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STORMS IN AND AROUND KALS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 438 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST STARTS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT SLC...GJT AND DEN
WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT ABQ WITH PWATS AROUND 1/2 INCH LAST
NIGHT.

WITH NO EVIDENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...THE LATEST MODELS...INCLUDING HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC...ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. WITH TERRAIN INDUCED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENTS PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS SAT...WHICH SUGGESTS
MAXES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FRIDAY`S NUMBERS. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS) SUN...FORECAST CAPES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY
EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM I25 EASTWARD. FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS...WITH READINGS DRIFTING DOWN JUST A DEGF OR TWO FROM SAT.

MOIST PLUME THINS SLIGHTLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY WRN CO AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HOLD ON TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED/SCT POPS MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MAX TEMPS MON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD.

FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD DEPENDS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH QUICK PEEK AT 06Z GFS
SHOWS A FASTER TROUGH THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION. CONCEPTUALLY...SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE ONE WE WOULD SEE IN SEPT/OCT...WITH STRONG W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM SHOVING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL
EAST...LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. COLD FRONT
THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUE OR WED...WITH UPSLOPE SURGE PERHAPS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER WEST. IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD
LINGER WED INTO THU AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT...THOUGH GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FASTER 00Z EURO/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. FORECAST TUE INTO THU IS
RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A
GRADUALLY COOLING TREND WED-THU AS TROUGH PASSES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD PUSH EAST ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS AND TERMINAL WITH WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AT COS AND ALS...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCTS IN TACT AT THIS TIME.
STORMS THAT AFFECT TERMINALS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1146 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

FINED TUNED SHORT TERM POP/SKY/QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS.  ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

CURRENTLY...

AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.

REST OF TODAY...

HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.

CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...

2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TOMORROW...

500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER THAT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT
IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TONIGHT...BUT STILL AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. AGAIN...GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE TAF SITES...STORMS ARE PROBABLY JUST ABOUT DONE AT KCOS
FOR TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS EARLY AS 18Z. FOR KPUB...LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 08Z OR
09Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING SOUTH. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 21Z FRIDAY. FOR
KALS...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS HOUR. WILL CARRY THESE UNTIL ABOUT 08Z OR
09Z. STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER ABOUT 20Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...LW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1124 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS.  ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

CURRENTLY...

AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.

REST OF TODAY...

HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.

CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...

2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TOMORROW...

500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER THAT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT
IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TONIGHT...BUT STILL AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. AGAIN...GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE TAF SITES...STORMS ARE PROBABLY JUST ABOUT DONE AT KCOS
FOR TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS EARLY AS 18Z. FOR KPUB...LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 08Z OR
09Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING SOUTH. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 21Z FRIDAY. FOR
KALS...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS HOUR. WILL CARRY THESE UNTIL ABOUT 08Z OR
09Z. STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER ABOUT 20Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...LW




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

 1037 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS.  ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

CURRENTLY...

AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.

REST OF TODAY...

HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.

CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.

THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...

2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

TOMORROW...

500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

KCOS AND KPUB WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME TSRA/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES THEN
CLEARING. OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

 1045 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME TO AN END TONIGHT AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING HUMID
AND WARM WEATHER TOMORROW. SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS IN PLACE ALONG
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. DURING THIS TIME...THERE WILL BE THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A SERIES OF WEAK
FRONTAL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. LIGHTNING FREQUENCY STARTING TO DROP OFF AS WELL. SURFACE
BASED CAPE VALUES WERE LESS THAN 500 J/KG. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR
THE REST OF TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY
AT THOSE LOCATIONS WHICH SAW HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LATEST RUNS OF THE HRRR APPEAR TO HAVE LATCHED ON TO RAINFALL
AREAS FAIRLY WELL. LEANED ON THE 01Z HRRR TO UPDATE PRECIP TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO
BRING NEXT FEW HOURS BACK IN LINE WITH OBSERVED TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LINGERING SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE
SHOULD BE A FAIRLY QUIET BUT MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S. THE URBAN CORRIDORS OF BOS AND PVD WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S.

DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S AND WITH
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINFALL COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOP. BEST LOCATIONS WILL BE ACROSS LOW-LYING AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY OR PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER AS 850 MB TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE AROUND 16-17C.
THEREFORE BELIEVE HIGH TEMPS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S. COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE AS SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
THANKS TO WEAK WINDS ALOFT.

BELIEVE THE REGION WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE TOMORROW. HOWEVER CANNOT
RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A POP-UP SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT TAKE
A CLOSER LOOK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* PERIODS OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
* MAY SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
  MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
* ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK

OVERVIEW...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS IN DECENT OVERALL AGREEMENT INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AFTER WEDNESDAY THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT
TIMING DIFFERENCES ARISE...WHICH IN TURN LEADS TO A LOWER
CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO TIMING. FOLLOWED A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION TO SMOOTH OVER SOME OF THESE DIFFERENCES. HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL TRENDS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. LOTS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS AN AMPLIFIED MID LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL USA...LEAVING OUR REGION BENEATH
A PERSISTENT RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE...A BERMUDA HIGH SHOULD DEVELOP
AND ENHANCE THE FLOW OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY INTO OUR REGION.

THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT PATTERN OF DIURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR A GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THE
TROUBLE IS...THERE ARE NOT MANY FOCUSING MECHANISMS EXPECTED NEAR
OUR REGION UNTIL LATE NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...PLAN FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TONIGHT...
VFR. SCATTERED MVFR IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS THIS EVENING...
DISSIPATING AFTER 16/04Z. PATCHY MVFR/IFR IN FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOW LYING REGIONS.

SUNDAY...VFR. SEABREEZES ALONG THE COASTLINE. COULD SEE A ROGUE
POP-UP SHOWER ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

KBOS TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. LOW CONFIDENCE ON SEABREEZE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY. SCT SHOWERS/-TSRA POSSIBLE AFTER 16/21Z.

KBDL TERMINAL...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TAF TRENDS. MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ACROSS THE INLAND VALLEYS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST SLOPES OF BERKSHIRES AND ALONG
SOUTH COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN ANY CONVECTION. S-SW WIND REMAINS IN PLACE...POSSIBLY GUSTING
TO 15-20 KT ALONG SOUTH COAST. WEAK SEABREEZES POSSIBLE ALONG EAST
COAST DURING MONDAY.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG
POSSIBLE DURING OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS.

&&

.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS TONIGHT. THIS MAY BRING A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT MAY ALSO
PRODUCE POOR VSBYS. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEKEND.

OUTLOOK /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH PERIOD.

S-SW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS PERIOD...POSSIBLY GUSTING UP TO
20 KT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AT TIMES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW 5 FT. MAY SEE PATCHY LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG
REDUCING VSBYS EACH DAY ESPECIALLY ALONG SOUTHERN NEAR SHORE
WATERS.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR RIZ003>008.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BELK/DUNTEN
NEAR TERM...BELK/DUNTEN
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...BELK
AVIATION...BELK/DUNTEN
MARINE...BELK/DUNTEN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 1111 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A HOTTER AIR MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1111 AM...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH 80F BEING REPORTED AT
POUGHKEEPSIE NY. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE 50S WITH 60S
OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM TRENTON ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
TO ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO NY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MAX ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.
LATEST HRRR SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA AROUND 1 PM AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM UPDATE MAINLY FOR
CLOUD COVER AND TO TIME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN IT.  THE BEST LIFT
GENERATED BY THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. THE SHOWALTER INDICES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LOW...AND GENERALLY IN THE 0 TO -1C RANGE.  THE O-6
KM DEEP SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE NAM HAS
MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS...DUE TO INFLATED SFC DEWPTS ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. ADJUSTING THE SFC DEWPTS
TO THE U50S TO L60S SHOULD ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO THE GFS
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. SOME WEAK PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND
NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. LOW CHC AND SLIGHT CHC
WERE USED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH NO POPS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.

H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +16C WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W TO SW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO U80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. THE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA...AND SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT
IN THE FCST. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH U50S TO L60S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SFC DEWPTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M60S. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DESPITE THE MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AT
10 KTS OR SO. DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH
MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR IF THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED
INTO...BUT MOSTLY GENERAL OR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25-1.66 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO OCCUR. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +15C TO +17C
RANGE WITH THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND U70S
TO L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE DIFFUSE AND SHALLOW COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SCT THUNDERSTORMS ENDING.
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WILL
OCCUR...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LAPSE RATES LOOK WEAK WITH
THE FRONT. THE COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK TO NEUTRAL TOO. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MID 50S AT
AROUND 60F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
THE REGION AND FALLS APART. A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE
REGION. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL
RISE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO
+18C. SOME 90F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD U80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND U60S /A FEW 70F READINGS IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/ IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AT THE START WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. H8 TEMPS RISE TO +18C TO +20C ON
MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY AND STALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ML
MUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON...1000-2000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 500-1500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS ACRS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST WITH
LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES LATER TODAY.

FOG SLOWLY BURNING OFF AT KPSF THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...SCT- BKN CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5 KFT LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT TAF SITES. S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE WITH MAINLY BKN-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OPEN THE WEEKEND.  HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
AS A HOTTER AIR MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT.
EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.

THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND BE LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST TODAY WITH GENERALLY
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...NAS/WASULA



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 120 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OFF THE DELMARVA CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN NY. HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE U40S TO
U50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME L60S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON
VALLEY.

SOME SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS ON THE TIMING OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO...THE SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE STARTED
AFTER 10Z/6 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS KEPT IN THE FCST IN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN VT/BERKSHIRES. LOW TEMPS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH U40S TO L50S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...SOME UPPER 80S SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 80 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO THE REGION.

ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING FRIDAY
EVENING BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD
PREVENT A CLEAR SKY. LIGHT BUT POTENTIALLY STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
VERY EXTREME EITHER...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT SOME CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER LOOSE AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...PLUS NOT MUCH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL...THE INSTABILITY AND EVEN THE WEAK
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PULSE TO
STRONG LEVELS...MAYBE APPROACHING SEVERE BUT THE PREDOMINANT MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT INDICATING IT AT THIS TIME
AS THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
CHANCES...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
FRONT...SINCE THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH COOLING IF ANY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER FEATURING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWARD AT THE
SURFACE...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BE PUMPING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BECOMING INCREASINGLY HUMID...DRY WEATHER
IS MAINLY EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE REGION
EXPERIENCING THE STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SCATTERED
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SEVERE STORMS LOOKING ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE REGARDING
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING
FASTER AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE REGION AND THE ECMWF SLOWING IT
DOWN/POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE DISCREPANCIES...ALTHOUGH HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN
OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT FOR LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT COULD CONTINUE THE 90 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND OF A RETURN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST...IF NOT THE
HOTTEST...TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR HOW THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE EVOLVES AS WE GO FORWARD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR ALL SITES AND WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY TODAY...SCT CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5 KFT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP DURING DIURNAL HEATING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT KGFL/KALB AND PERHAPS KPSF.
S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID MORNING...WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.

THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE WITH MAINLY BKN-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SATURDAY FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SINK JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 55 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 75 TO 100 PERCENT..

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH AT LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...AND
FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND A COLD FRONT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY...AND NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

 114 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OFF THE DELMARA CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN NY. HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE U40S TO U50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME L60S IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON VALLEY.

SOME SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS ON THE TIMING OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO...THE SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE STARTED
AFTER 10Z/6 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS KEPT IN THE FCST IN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN VT/BERKSHIRES. LOW TEMPS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH U40S TO L50S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...SOME UPPER 80S SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 80 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO THE REGION.

ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING FRIDAY
EVENING BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD
PREVENT A CLEAR SKY. LIGHT BUT POTENTIALLY STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
VERY EXTREME EITHER...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT SOME CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER LOOSE AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...PLUS NOT MUCH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL...THE INSTABILITY AND EVEN THE WEAK
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PULSE TO
STRONG LEVELS...MAYBE APPROACHING SEVERE BUT THE PREDOMINANT MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT.

LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT INDICATING IT AT THIS TIME
AS THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
CHANCES...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
FRONT...SINCE THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH COOLING IF ANY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER FEATURING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWARD AT THE
SURFACE...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BE PUMPING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BECOMING INCREASINGLY HUMID...DRY WEATHER
IS MAINLY EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE REGION
EXPERIENCING THE STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SCATTERED
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SEVERE STORMS LOOKING ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.

BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE REGARDING
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING
FASTER AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE REGION AND THE ECMWF SLOWING IT
DOWN/POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE DISCREPANCIES...ALTHOUGH HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER.

THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN
OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT FOR LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT COULD CONTINUE THE 90 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND OF A RETURN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST...IF NOT THE
HOTTEST...TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR HOW THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE EVOLVES AS WE GO FORWARD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILD
IN OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR ALL SITES AND WINDS WILL BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR
KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.

DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SCT CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5 KFT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP DURING DIURNAL HEATING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT KGFL/KALB AND
PERHAPS KPSF. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID
MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL AND
KALB.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SATURDAY FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SINK JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 55 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 75 TO 100 PERCENT..

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH AT LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...AND
FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS SATURDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND A COLD FRONT.

THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OVERALL...FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY...AND NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA/RCW
NEAR TERM...WASULA/RCW
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 940 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
LOOKS LIKE COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST A BIG
PLAYER THIS EVENING WITH RECENT TSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HRRR SHOWING A
CONTINUATION OF ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND GIVEN SAT/RADAR
TRENDS, DECIDED TO BRING POPS BACK UP FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD,
AND MIAMI-DADE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST WE COULD HAVE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL/ISOLATED STREET FLOODING EAST COAST OVERNIGHT SHOULD
TSTORMS BEGIN TO TRAIN OVER A GIVEN AREA...ESPECIALLY IF IT`S OVER
A MORE SUSCEPTIBLE AREA OF POOR DRAINAGE. SOMETHING WE WILL BE
MONITORING. NO EVENING SOUNDING THIS EVENING AS THE BALLOON GOT
CAUGHT IN AN UPDRAFT WITH TSTORMS AROUND. HOWEVER, GPS MET DATA
SHOWS IT FAIRLY MOIST...WITH PW AVERAGING 2 INCHES ACROSS SOUTH
FL. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS BY LOWERING THE POPS AND MENTIONING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE EAST COAST. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE
BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING ONSHORE. THE HRRR DOES
SHOW THIS ALSO AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

KOB

AVIATION...
A THUNDERSTORM JUST DEVELOPED WEST OF KMIA AND NORTH OF KTMB AND
MOVING NW. SO JUST INCLUDED VCTS NOW THROUGH 01Z FOR KMIA AND KTMB.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, VFR WILL PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST. INCLUDED VCSH EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT TS SO KEPT OUT FOR
NOW. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY SUN LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS THEN.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  91  79  91 /  50  60  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  80  90 /  50  40  40  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  91 /  50  40  40  30
NAPLES           76  92  76  92 /  20  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

 747 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME EARLIER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS BY LOWERING THE POPS AND MENTIONING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ALONG THE EAST COAST. DIFFICULT TO SAY WHAT MAY TRANSPIRE
BUT WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVING ONSHORE. THE HRRR DOES
SHOW THIS ALSO AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE.

KOB

&&

.AVIATION...
A THUNDERSTORM JUST DEVELOPED WEST OF KMIA AND NORTH OF KTMB AND
MOVING NW. SO JUST INCLUDED VCTS NOW THROUGH 01Z FOR KMIA AND KTMB.
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT, VFR WILL PREVAIL. THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA MOVING ONSHORE THE EAST COAST. INCLUDED VCSH EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT TS SO KEPT OUT FOR
NOW. SCATTERED TSRA EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN BY SUN LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS THEN.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  79  91  79 /  30  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  80 /  30  30  40  40
MIAMI            86  79  91  79 /  30  20  40  40
NAPLES           89  76  92  76 /  30  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1132 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...
1130 AM CDT

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND POPS TODAY.
UPPER WAVE OVER THE AREA HAS BEEN GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...MIDLEVEL
OVERCAST HAS GREATLY SLOWED WARMING TREND. CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ENABLE TEMPS TO WARM...BUT LIKELY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S/84
TO 88 RANGE. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALSO LIMIT ALREADY LOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AT DVN/ILX
SHOWED A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAP AT 800 MB AT BASE OF EML AND
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 91-92 DEGREES DUE TO THIS CAP. WEAK UPPER WAVE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IN WISCONSIN...WITH MAYBE SOME WIDELY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN CWA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON RECENT RUNS OF RAP/HRRR
ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD DUE TO EXTREME WARM BIAS/FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 100 AND LOW DEWPOINT BIAS CAUSING AUTOCONVECTION AND THEN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON SPURIOUS COLD POOLS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS
GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

RC

&&

.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* WESTERLY WINDS 7-9 KT THROUGH 19Z THEN MORE COMMONLY AROUND 10
  KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AREA AFTER 22Z.

MTF

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY 19Z.
* MEDIUM IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MTF

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
242 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...

* WESTERLY WINDS 7-9 KT THROUGH 19Z THEN MORE COMMONLY AROUND 10
  KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AREA AFTER 22Z.

MTF

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY 19Z.
* MEDIUM IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MTF

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
242 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 909 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...

* LOW POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN A CHANCE
  FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MTF

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...

* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY. LOW IN LAKE BREEZE REACHING
  AS FAR INLAND AS AIRPORTS.
* MEDIUM IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MTF

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
242 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

 636 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RATZER

&&

.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.

VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.

RATZER

&&

.AVIATION...

//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...

* LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

BMD

//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...

WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

BMD

//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...

* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
  DETAILS OF A LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
  EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BMD

//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...

SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.

BMD

&&

.MARINE...
242 AM CDT

LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

BMD

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

VISIT US AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO (ALL LOWERCASE)

FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSCHICAGO
WWW.YOUTUBE.COM/NWSCHICAGO



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 249 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...

THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.

CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AGAINST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND LATER IN THE WEEK A DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUSHING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE
REQUIRED MOST PERIODS BUT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN CHANCE OWING TO
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR AND INITIALIZATION REFLECTED THIS WELL WITH FEW CHANGES
REQUIRED.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD...SOME
LOWERING CLOUD LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT STILL VFR.

MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE OUTLYING SITES. THIS
DID NOT END UP OCCURRING LAST NIGHT EXCEPT BRIEFLY...BUT DEWPOINTS
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE UP...SO EXPECT MORE TO FORM. LAMP MAY BE
OVERSELLING IT THOUGH AS IT HAS SKIES GOING CLEAR AND THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY EXPLICIT INCLUSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.

CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY
ON...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH A FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE DUE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
WEEK...00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
AN UPPER WAVE THAT THE ECMWF LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
NEXT THURSDAY. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SIDED CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WITH MODEL CLUSTERING NOT GREAT...DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS.  WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE MID AND LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD...SOME
LOWERING CLOUD LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT STILL VFR.

MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE OUTLYING SITES. THIS
DID NOT END UP OCCURRING LAST NIGHT EXCEPT BRIEFLY...BUT DEWPOINTS
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE UP...SO EXPECT MORE TO FORM. LAMP MAY BE
OVERSELLING IT THOUGH AS IT HAS SKIES GOING CLEAR AND THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.

WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.

ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY EXPLICIT INCLUSION.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1026 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...

THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.

CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY
ON...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH A FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE DUE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
WEEK...00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
AN UPPER WAVE THAT THE ECMWF LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
NEXT THURSDAY. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SIDED CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WITH MODEL CLUSTERING NOT GREAT...DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS.  WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE MID AND LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

ANY MVFR OR IFR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AT WORST.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AT LAF AND IND...BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE AIRPORTS. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR OR
WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST 6 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/NIELD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN

 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.

CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.

STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY
ON...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH A FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE DUE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
WEEK...00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
AN UPPER WAVE THAT THE ECMWF LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
NEXT THURSDAY. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SIDED CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WITH MODEL CLUSTERING NOT GREAT...DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS.  WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE MID AND LATE WEEK.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

ANY MVFR OR IFR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AT WORST.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AT LAF AND IND...BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE AIRPORTS. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR OR
WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST 6 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

 310 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO SUPPORTING WEAK
WAA. AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CU IN NORTHEAST IOWA INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IS OF INTEREST AS A POTENTIAL IGNITION POINT FOR
STORMS...THOUGH LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
TO HAMPER THAT PROCESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HRRR AND RAP SEEM A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE OR AT LEAST TOO FAST IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE CURRENTLY
INDICATES NOT MUCH MORE THAN MODERATE CU. PLENTY OF CAPE IS
AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE
STORMS. AT THIS POINT PLAN ON FOCUSING LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA JUST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SINCE
DIURNAL FORCING IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.

VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL WITH
NEITHER A FOCUS NOR A TRIGGER AVAILABLE DESPITE A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS.  WOLF

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP IN PLACE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 20C. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM UPPER MI TO CENTRAL MN AND THEN TO FAR NW KS. WITH THE CAPPING
ATMOSPHERE AND NO TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND
90 OR THE LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...SUCH AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF
STORM SYSTEMS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS ENTIRE WEEK...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AN
EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER THE CWA. WAVES IN
THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS INDICATES A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IN THE MIDWEST BY MID WEEK...AND THEN
DRY AFTERWARDS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE UPSTREAM ENERGY. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
DETAILS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. WOLF


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...WOLF




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 536 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN
TERMS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY AFTER A TUESDAY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE CRAWLING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.80 INCHES INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT TRAIN. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETERS BUT FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO MONITOR.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO CONTINUE THE STORMY PATTERN.
INSTABILITY BUILDS UP ONCE AGAIN BUT WIND SHEAR IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING WITH A
STALLED FRONT IN THE REGION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT RECEIVED. A LITTLE UNSURE
ON HOW SUBSTANTIAL A SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP BECAUSE OF
FOG/STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND AGREE WITH
THEIR ASSESSMENT. AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SUNDAY EVENING...FLASH FLOODING
MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY IF SOILS ARE SATURATED.

TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH...FORCING THE
FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION OF TIMING REMAINS
BUT A LATER EJECTION...AS SHOWN WITH LATEST EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...WOULD FAVOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ONCE
AGAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT...ANTICIPATE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KGLD DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO THE DEW POINT. HOWEVER CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPING AND THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING THEN TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN.

DURING THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

 1102 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK...SLOWLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED OUT THE AREA OR DISSIPATED AND SHOULD BE
DONE FOR THE NIGHT. HAVE DROPPED POPS DOWN TO ALMOST NIL EXCEPT
JUST A VERY SMALL CHANCE NEAR PORTSMOUTH FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE FOG AND STRATUS ARE DEVELOPING AS THE CLOUDS MOVE OUT
AND WHERE THEY FORM WILL BE THE CHALLENGE TONIGHT... AS WELL AS
HOW THESE PHENOMENA FACTOR INTO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS NOW DOMINATING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE CELLS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. OVER THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...CELLS ARE LINED
UP WITH ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS GIVING THE
STORMS A BOOST AS WELL. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ALSO BECOMING A STRATIFORM
SHIELD AND MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE THE RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTED POPS...WEATHER...QPF...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS H8
TEMPERATURES REACH +16C. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. DEW POINT VALUES
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY
HIGH.

EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THEIR DEW POINTS SO READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN EAST COAST RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMER ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CAP ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN A FEW
DEGREES MORE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WE WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK WHICH COULD SIGNAL A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALSO...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LEAD TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SOME FOG AND HAZE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID AIR CROSSES THE REGION.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAY ME

 804 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK...SLOWLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION IS NOW DOMINATING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE CELLS IN CHESHIRE COUNTY WHICH SHOULD BE
WINDING DOWN. OVER THE WESTERN MAINE MOUNTAINS...CELLS ARE LINED
UP WITH ELEVATED FRONTOGENESIS AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT IS GIVING THE
STORMS A BOOST AS WELL. THE LATEST HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
SOUTH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS BEFORE ALSO BECOMING A STRATIFORM
SHIELD AND MOVING OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE THE RAIN OVER
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE WILL DIMINISH SOON AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ADJUSTED POPS...WEATHER...QPF...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS FOR
THIS UPDATE.

&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MINIMAL DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE...HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT TO
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND SLOW MOVING NATURE TO THE PRECIP MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AS WELL...THEREFORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE REGIONS FOR UP TO A FEW MORE HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL CELLS BECOMING
EMBEDDED IN A LARGER SCALE MASS OF RAIN TOWARDS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.

EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS H8
TEMPERATURES REACH +16C. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. DEW POINT VALUES
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY
HIGH.

EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THEIR DEW POINTS SO READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S BY
SUNRISE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN EAST COAST RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMER ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CAP ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN A FEW
DEGREES MORE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WE WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK WHICH COULD SIGNAL A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALSO...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LEAD TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.

LONG TERM...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SOME FOG AND HAZE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID AIR CROSSES THE REGION.

LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HANES
CANNON/LULOFS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1110 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...QUIET AND MILD OVERNIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING
WITH AXIS OF >588 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN UPPER JET HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA NORTH OF THE "HEAT DOME." AT THE
SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE US-CANADIAN
BORDER NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. SEVERAL
BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS
ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
SPILLING INTO NRN MICHIGAN. EARLIER BUBBLY CU FIELD ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN (AND VERY SPOTTY SHOWER WANNABES) HAS PRETTY MUCH
FADED WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING DOWN AROUND TVC/CAD.

OVERNIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WILL
TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MORNING WHILE SFC
COLD FRONT GETS STRETCHED OUT BACK INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE AND WHERE THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN. FOR
US...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME THICKER CIRRUS INVADE THE NRN PARTS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE U.P. MAINLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH (HOPEFULLY). DON/T THINK
FOG WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC
DEWPOINTS AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE DAY. THAT SAID...AN
INTERESTING NOTE...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST AN
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD LAYER OFF THE LAKE INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AND DRAGS HIGHER LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINT AIR OUT OF WISCONSIN UP INTO THE REGION. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY
IGNORED THAT IDEA FOR THE MOMENT...BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
HERES HOPING I DON/T WAKE TOMORROW MORNING TO A SUNRISE SURPRISE
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A ROGUE EVENING SHOWER OR STORM (OR
TWO) STILL POSSIBLE...WITH ANY STORMS BEING VERY SLOW MOVERS.

ALL REMAINS RATHER QUIET AT THE MOMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING (590 DM HEIGHTS) FOLDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ALL THROUGHOUT THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OUR AIRMASS REMAINS A RATHER HOT ONE BY
NORTHERN MICHIGAN STANDARDS...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 90 AS OF 19Z...WHILE DEW POINTS ARE A TOUCH MORE "COMFORTABLE"
DOWN IN THE 60S...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE. STRONG INLAND THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED PER MESOANALYSIS...WITH A CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE
INCHING TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS IS TYPICAL ON VERY LIGHT WIND
REGIME DAYS. HAVE SEEN A DECENT FLARE UP OF CU WITHIN THE BETTER
HEATING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH WITH NO
NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS AS OF YET...COURTESY OF A CAP JUST UNDER 700MB
PER 12Z APX RAOB.

IN THEORY...WE STILL HAVE A SHOT AT A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING
OFF THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND INDEED THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT IDEA. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WITH BASICALLY NIL STEERING FLOW BELOW 500MB (SOMETHING
LIKE A WHOPPING 8 KNOTS!)...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL BOTH
BE SLOW MOVING WITH A LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT (SKINNY CAPE/HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS) AS WELL AS A PROLIFIC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRODUCER...WHICH IN TURN MAY TRY TO SET OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE CELLS. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED WORDING.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO FOLD
OVERHEAD...ALL WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME GRADUALLY
RESPONDS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...DON`T FORESEE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER MIXING OF MOISTURE
TODAY...THOUGH WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. STRONGER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 07Z SHOULD PUT THE KIBOSH ON THAT...WHILE ALSO HELPING
TRANSPORT A CURRENT PLUME OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH
AND OUR OF OUR HAIR. LOWS OVERNIGHT MORE MILD THAN LAST...WITH
READINGS MAINLY STUCK IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST SE OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS LEANS SOUTHWARD INTO SRN LWR MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...PUSHING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22 C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
SPOTS REACH THE UPPER 90S IN ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAP ANY POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY...MUCH LESS SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. SO...FOR THOSE WHO ARE
LOOKING FOR THAT QUINTESSENTIAL HOT AND SUNNY SUMMER DAY...SUNDAY IS
IT!

OUR CWA WILL LIKELY STAY PRECIP-FREE THRU SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WX
BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN AS AN UPSTREAM COOL FRONT LEANS INTO NW
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONT ITSELF WILL SLOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE BECOME NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...
LIKELY STALLING OVER OUR AREA THRU MID WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND RIDE NE THRU MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY TOO FAR OUT
TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING ON EACH WAVE...AND CERTAINLY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL POOL ALONG
THE FRONT...PROVIDING MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WAVES RIPPLE ALONG
IT. LOW/MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE
INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT WILL PROVIDE SOME PROGRESSIVE MODERATION OF
SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY (PERHAPS STRONG-SEVERE LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT).

FAIRLY DECENT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THE ENVELOPE OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS BEGINS TO SPREAD AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. 15/12Z GFS IS CLEARLY THE MOST AMPLIFIED
WITH THE 15/12Z ECMWF/GEM LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TIMING. WILL ATTEMPT TO SOMEWHAT TAKE A BLEND OF THE
THREE...KNOWING FULL WELL THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED WAVE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED 999 MB SFC LOW BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI
BEFORE NEGATIVELY TILTING ALOFT AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...WHILE THE ALL-IMPORTANT
TIMING REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 50-
60 KTS AT 500 MB...~700-1300 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR PRIOR TO FROPA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THERE`S A POTENTIAL
THAT MICHIGAN COULD ONCE AGAIN GET BACK IN ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
ACTION. NOTE SPC`S DAY 5 OUTLOOK WITH AN AREA FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA/CANADA BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. WITH ALL
THIS SAID AND THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM LINING UP WELL ON
PAPER...NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND
ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM (SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION) AND OF COURSE
FROPA TIMING. DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT 4-5
DAYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A BIT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ULTIMATELY RETURNING THE
REGION TO DRY WEATHER. LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PERHAPS BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70 (GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE 76-
77 DEGREE NORMALS FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN AUGUST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...

SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUD WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS
OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...INCREASING SW
FLOW TOWARD MORNING MIGHT RESULT IN SOME EXPANDING STRATUS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT
HIGH...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS IN THE TVC/MBL
TAFS.

ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH SCT HEATING OF THE DAY CLOUDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

GREAT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. THOSE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
FOR ALL AREAS AND STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY LEANING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION. A ROUND OF TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
OVER JUST ABOUT ALL THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THAT
FRONT ARRIVES...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE INCREASING
SIGNS THAT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS. STAY TUNED...


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ341-
     342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 1007 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...QUIET AND MILD OVERNIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING
WITH AXIS OF >588 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN UPPER JET HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA NORTH OF THE "HEAT DOME." AT THE
SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE US-CANADIAN
BORDER NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. SEVERAL
BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS
ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
SPILLING INTO NRN MICHIGAN. EARLIER BUBBLY CU FIELD ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN (AND VERY SPOTTY SHOWER WANNABES) HAS PRETTY MUCH
FADED WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING DOWN AROUND TVC/CAD.

OVERNIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WILL
TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MORNING WHILE SFC
COLD FRONT GETS STRETCHED OUT BACK INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE AND WHERE THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN. FOR
US...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME THICKER CIRRUS INVADE THE NRN PARTS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE U.P. MAINLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH (HOPEFULLY). DON/T THINK
FOG WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC
DEWPOINTS AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE DAY. THAT SAID...AN
INTERESTING NOTE...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST AN
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD LAYER OFF THE LAKE INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AND DRAGS HIGHER LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINT AIR OUT OF WISCONSIN UP INTO THE REGION. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY
IGNORED THAT IDEA FOR THE MOMENT...BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
HERES HOPING I DON/T WAKE TOMORROW MORNING TO A SUNRISE SURPRISE
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A ROGUE EVENING SHOWER OR STORM (OR
TWO) STILL POSSIBLE...WITH ANY STORMS BEING VERY SLOW MOVERS.

ALL REMAINS RATHER QUIET AT THE MOMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING (590 DM HEIGHTS) FOLDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ALL THROUGHOUT THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OUR AIRMASS REMAINS A RATHER HOT ONE BY
NORTHERN MICHIGAN STANDARDS...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 90 AS OF 19Z...WHILE DEW POINTS ARE A TOUCH MORE "COMFORTABLE"
DOWN IN THE 60S...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE. STRONG INLAND THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED PER MESOANALYSIS...WITH A CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE
INCHING TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS IS TYPICAL ON VERY LIGHT WIND
REGIME DAYS. HAVE SEEN A DECENT FLARE UP OF CU WITHIN THE BETTER
HEATING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH WITH NO
NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS AS OF YET...COURTESY OF A CAP JUST UNDER 700MB
PER 12Z APX RAOB.

IN THEORY...WE STILL HAVE A SHOT AT A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING
OFF THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND INDEED THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT IDEA. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WITH BASICALLY NIL STEERING FLOW BELOW 500MB (SOMETHING
LIKE A WHOPPING 8 KNOTS!)...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL BOTH
BE SLOW MOVING WITH A LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT (SKINNY CAPE/HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS) AS WELL AS A PROLIFIC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRODUCER...WHICH IN TURN MAY TRY TO SET OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE CELLS. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED WORDING.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO FOLD
OVERHEAD...ALL WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME GRADUALLY
RESPONDS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...DON`T FORESEE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER MIXING OF MOISTURE
TODAY...THOUGH WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. STRONGER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 07Z SHOULD PUT THE KIBOSH ON THAT...WHILE ALSO HELPING
TRANSPORT A CURRENT PLUME OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH
AND OUR OF OUR HAIR. LOWS OVERNIGHT MORE MILD THAN LAST...WITH
READINGS MAINLY STUCK IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST SE OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS LEANS SOUTHWARD INTO SRN LWR MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...PUSHING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22 C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
SPOTS REACH THE UPPER 90S IN ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAP ANY POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY...MUCH LESS SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. SO...FOR THOSE WHO ARE
LOOKING FOR THAT QUINTESSENTIAL HOT AND SUNNY SUMMER DAY...SUNDAY IS
IT!

OUR CWA WILL LIKELY STAY PRECIP-FREE THRU SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WX
BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN AS AN UPSTREAM COOL FRONT LEANS INTO NW
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONT ITSELF WILL SLOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE BECOME NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...
LIKELY STALLING OVER OUR AREA THRU MID WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND RIDE NE THRU MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY TOO FAR OUT
TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING ON EACH WAVE...AND CERTAINLY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL POOL ALONG
THE FRONT...PROVIDING MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WAVES RIPPLE ALONG
IT. LOW/MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE
INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT WILL PROVIDE SOME PROGRESSIVE MODERATION OF
SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY (PERHAPS STRONG-SEVERE LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT).

FAIRLY DECENT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THE ENVELOPE OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS BEGINS TO SPREAD AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. 15/12Z GFS IS CLEARLY THE MOST AMPLIFIED
WITH THE 15/12Z ECMWF/GEM LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TIMING. WILL ATTEMPT TO SOMEWHAT TAKE A BLEND OF THE
THREE...KNOWING FULL WELL THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED WAVE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED 999 MB SFC LOW BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI
BEFORE NEGATIVELY TILTING ALOFT AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...WHILE THE ALL-IMPORTANT
TIMING REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 50-
60 KTS AT 500 MB...~700-1300 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR PRIOR TO FROPA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THERE`S A POTENTIAL
THAT MICHIGAN COULD ONCE AGAIN GET BACK IN ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
ACTION. NOTE SPC`S DAY 5 OUTLOOK WITH AN AREA FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA/CANADA BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. WITH ALL
THIS SAID AND THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM LINING UP WELL ON
PAPER...NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND
ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM (SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION) AND OF COURSE
FROPA TIMING. DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT 4-5
DAYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A BIT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ULTIMATELY RETURNING THE
REGION TO DRY WEATHER. LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PERHAPS BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70 (GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE 76-
77 DEGREE NORMALS FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN AUGUST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SOLID VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAYTIME HEATING INDUCED CLOUDS RAPIDLY FADING EARLY THIS EVENING
AND WILL LEAVE OVERALL CLEAR SKIES FOR TONIGHT...SAVE FOR A FEW
SHREDS OF CIRRUS ACROSS FAR NRN MICHIGAN. WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS/HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY...DON/T THINK FOG WILL BE MUCH (IF
ANY) OF AN ISSUE. BUT ONE CAN NEVER RULE OUT A LITTLE BIT OF
GROUND FOG NEAR MBL OFF THE NEARBY RIVER.

ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

GREAT BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KNOTS. THOSE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWEST
FOR ALL AREAS AND STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY/SUNDAY
NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT VERY SLOWLY LEANING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE REGION. A ROUND OF TWO OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE
OVER JUST ABOUT ALL THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THAT
FRONT ARRIVES...WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. IN ADDITION...THERE ARE INCREASING
SIGNS THAT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN
TOWARD MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GALE FORCE
WINDS. STAY TUNED...


&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...LAWRENCE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 149 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR I-96. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
WARM TO HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM KENT COUNTY TO
THE LAKE SHORE. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASED
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT (AS SHOWN BY THE 04Z RAP MODEL). THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES I-94 (THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 5 AM AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
DETROIT AREA). SO I UPDATED TO LIKELY POP NEAR GRR TILL 3 AM THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE TO CHANCE POP AS THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
AZO/BTL AREA TOWARD MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES POPS 30/40 PCT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRATIFIED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AFTER
06Z. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY AS THE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH
TIME. OVERALL...STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
AS THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE HRRR IS NOT
BULLISH AT ALL WITH FUTURE CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE FEEDS IN...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERALL...I`M NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND WON`T PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...600 J/K SBCAPE IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH. PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. LATEST HRRR DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING A BIT FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO NEAR I-96. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK
LOW TOO WITH ONLY 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE ZERO DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.

DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM GUIDANCE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE REACHING
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE PERIOD WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z SAT. THE FIRST PERIOD
IS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z THIS MORNING. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POPPING UP WEST OF KGRR AND KAZO...AND SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE ERN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. SOME MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A QUICK DROP TO IFR NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.

SKIES WILL SCATTER A BIT THEN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD POP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS
TO SEE THESE WILL BE AT KLAN AND KJXN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WSW WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 00Z OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.

FINALLY A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 01Z ACROSS THE
NW...AND THEN SPREAD SE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
WAVE PASSING THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

MATCHED UP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WAVES AROUND 4 FEET TOWARDS LUDINGTON BUILD SOUTH
WITH TIME. SO...THE BHS AND SCA ARE CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 500 AM.
WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WE WILL DECIDE IF WE CAN DROP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES OR EXTEND THEM INTO THE MORNING.

A CORE OF WIND WILL WORK DOWN THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT WITH A WIND
MAX AROUND 2000FT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE KMKG BUFKIT OVERVIEWS
ARRIVING THERE AROUND 06Z. IT REACHES SOUTH HAVEN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY NEED TO CARRY THE
HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT IT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
4-5 ZONES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ037-043-050-056-064.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

 139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR I-96. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
WARM TO HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM KENT COUNTY TO
THE LAKE SHORE. THAT IS ASSOICATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASED
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT (AS SHOWN BY THE 04Z RAP MODEL). THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES I-94 (THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 5 AM AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
DETROIT AREA). SO I UPDATED TO LIKELY POP NEAR GRR TILL 3 AM THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE TO CHANCE POP AS THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
AZO/BTL AREA TOWARD MORNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES POPS 30/40 PCT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRATIFIED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AFTER
06Z. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY AS THE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH
TIME. OVERALL...STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
AS THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE HRRR IS NOT
BULLISH AT ALL WITH FUTURE CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE FEEDS IN...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERALL...I`M NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND WON`T PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...600 J/K SBCAPE IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH. PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. LATEST HRRR DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING A BIT FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO NEAR I-96. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK
LOW TOO WITH ONLY 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE ZERO DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.

DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM GUIDANCE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE REACHING
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

ESSENTIALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT SMALL...20-40 PCT. AT THIS POINT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING CARRIED VCTS WORDING IN THE TAFS
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000FT WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO AROUND 3500FT. ON FRIDAY EXPECTING WINDS
OFF THE LAKE TO POTENTIALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT A BIT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015

MATCHED UP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WAVES AROUND 4 FEET TOWARDS LUDINGTON BUILD SOUTH
WITH TIME. SO...THE BHS AND SCA ARE CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 500 AM.
WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WE WILL DECIDE IF WE CAN DROP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES OR EXTEND THEM INTO THE MORNING.

A CORE OF WIND WILL WORK DOWN THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT WITH A WIND
MAX AROUND 2000FT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE KMKG BUFKIT OVERVIEWS
ARRIVING THERE AROUND 06Z. IT REACHES SOUTH HAVEN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY NEED TO CARRY THE
HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT IT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
4-5 ZONES.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MIZ037-043-050-056-064.

LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 647 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTED IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
HOT AND HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S AS WELL...BUT TWM REACHED 100 AT 234 PM. CIRRUS WAS
FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CU IN NW
WI.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ND HAS SHOWN GLIMPSES THAT IT
IS FALLING APART. JUICY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT THE
INSTABILITY WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...PLUS THERE IS NO UPPER
FORCING AS THE FRONT REACHES NW MN BY 06Z. DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE NO RAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z. BY 12Z...MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT REACHING NE MN.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS DIMINISHING FOR ANY STORMS TO FIRE ON. HAVE
TRIED TO BLEND THE HIRES WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF/WEATHER.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO NW WI. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS STILL LIMITED. GREATEST MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND QPF AND USED A BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY DUE TO
THE SLOW FRONT MOVEMENT.  WE ENTER A QUIET PERIOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/LOW MOVING
FROM THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY...AND OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY.  THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...WITH THE
ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.  IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TO THE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS TUESDAY-THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AS
THE NIGHT WEARS ON...A COLD FRONT IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EASTWARD INTO THE CWA. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING KINL BY
12Z SUNDAY...AND IT SHOULD REACH KHIB AND KBRD BY 18Z. THE WIND
SHIFT WILL BE FAIRLY GRADUAL AND NOT TOO DRAMATIC...AS IT SWITCHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST TO MORE OF A WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE DAY WEARS ON
WITH WESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...AND ADVANCE SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE IN NE MN
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A BREAK ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI AND AT KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  85  59  74 /  30  20  10  10
INL  67  76  49  69 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  69  82  58  75 /  30  20  10  10
HYR  68  83  60  74 /  10  30  60  20
ASX  69  85  60  73 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TWO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD HEAT
INDICES...WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF ISOLD TSRA ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONT SAGGING S/SE ACROSS MPX NORTH/NE CWA.

ANY CLDS THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE WHICH BRINGS
FULL SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CUMULUS CLDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
NOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NOON WITH
DEW PTS ARND 65-70. THIS LEADS TO HEAT INDICES OVER 90 DEGREES BY
LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTN.
EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC MN
WHERE ACTUAL TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MORNING
HWO WILL THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE
AFTN...WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SOME OF THE CAMS DUE SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SAGS TO THE S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI. DUE TO THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE LOWEST 10K... THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH BASES. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS /WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ MOVES OVER MN/WC WI. I CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE VERY ISOLD. NO CHGS OVERNIGHT AS ANY TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE LONG TERM STARTS WARM AND HUMID BUT A FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY SPOTS IN MINNESOTA - WISCONSIN SHOULD BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN FACT...GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SMILIER VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY COULD BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY - SO WE MIGHT NEED TO BOOST OUR SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN FAIRLY VANILLA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS OR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS THE PAST 2.5 MONTHS.
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WE HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNCAPPED AND CLOSER TO THE JET...SO
WE`RE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY DOSE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH VERY
FEW 90S OR 70S. THE TWIN CITIES HAS A CHANCE TO DOUBLE ITS NUMBER
OF 90S FOR THE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE ONLY 90S
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR CAME ON JUNE 9TH AND JULY 17TH. ST. CLOUD
HAS ONLY HAD ONE 90 /JUNE 9TH/ AND EAU CLAIRE HAS YET TO OBSERVE A
90 DEGREE DAY.

SUNDAY WILL ALSO END UP BEING WARM GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL
TIMING...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CLOUD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE FRONT TAKES A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA. THIS
LEAVES US WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING...AND
THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER/DRIER AND
SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD GET
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SO TOOK OUT THOSE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WI
LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THOUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.

KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. TSRA LIKELY/CHC MVFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA EARLY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 544 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TWO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD HEAT
INDICES...WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF ISOLD TSRA ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONT SAGGING S/SE ACROSS MPX NORTH/NE CWA.

ANY CLDS THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE WHICH BRINGS
FULL SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CUMULUS CLDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
NOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NOON WITH
DEW PTS ARND 65-70. THIS LEADS TO HEAT INDICES OVER 90 DEGREES BY
LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTN.
EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC MN
WHERE ACTUAL TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MORNING
HWO WILL THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE
AFTN...WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SOME OF THE CAMS DUE SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SAGS TO THE S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI. DUE TO THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE LOWEST 10K... THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH BASES. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS /WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ MOVES OVER MN/WC WI. I CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE VERY ISOLD. NO CHGS OVERNIGHT AS ANY TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE LONG TERM STARTS WARM AND HUMID BUT A FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY SPOTS IN MINNESOTA - WISCONSIN SHOULD BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN FACT...GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SMILIER VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY COULD BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY - SO WE MIGHT NEED TO BOOST OUR SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN FAIRLY VANILLA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS OR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS THE PAST 2.5 MONTHS.
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WE HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNCAPPED AND CLOSER TO THE JET...SO
WE`RE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY DOSE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH VERY
FEW 90S OR 70S. THE TWIN CITIES HAS A CHANCE TO DOUBLE ITS NUMBER
OF 90S FOR THE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE ONLY 90S
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR CAME ON JUNE 9TH AND JULY 17TH. ST. CLOUD
HAS ONLY HAD ONE 90 /JUNE 9TH/ AND EAU CLAIRE HAS YET TO OBSERVE A
90 DEGREE DAY.

SUNDAY WILL ALSO END UP BEING WARM GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL
TIMING...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CLOUD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE FRONT TAKES A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA. THIS
LEAVES US WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING...AND
THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER/DRIER AND
SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD GET
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

NOT MUCH CHG FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO A
MORE WEST-WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KRNH/KEAU AFT 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ON ADDING VCTS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SOME
FG/BR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING NEAR KEAU.

KMSP...

AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHG FROM PREVIOUS TAF. KEPT VFR CONDS THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW BY LATE MORNING. A VERY SMALL CHC
OF A TSRA NEAR THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 20-00Z TODAY.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS BECMG W.
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA EARLY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

 434 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TWO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD HEAT
INDICES...WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF ISOLD TSRA ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONT SAGGING S/SE ACROSS MPX NORTH/NE CWA.

ANY CLDS THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE WHICH BRINGS
FULL SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CUMULUS CLDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
NOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NOON WITH
DEW PTS ARND 65-70. THIS LEADS TO HEAT INDICES OVER 90 DEGREES BY
LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTN.
EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC MN
WHERE ACTUAL TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MORNING
HWO WILL THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.

ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE
AFTN...WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SOME OF THE CAMS DUE SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SAGS TO THE S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI. DUE TO THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE LOWEST 10K... THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH BASES. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS /WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ MOVES OVER MN/WC WI. I CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE VERY ISOLD. NO CHGS OVERNIGHT AS ANY TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THE LONG TERM STARTS WARM AND HUMID BUT A FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY SPOTS IN MINNESOTA - WISCONSIN SHOULD BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN FACT...GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SMILIER VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY COULD BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY - SO WE MIGHT NEED TO BOOST OUR SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN FAIRLY VANILLA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS OR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS THE PAST 2.5 MONTHS.
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WE HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNCAPPED AND CLOSER TO THE JET...SO
WE`RE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY DOSE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH VERY
FEW 90S OR 70S. THE TWIN CITIES HAS A CHANCE TO DOUBLE ITS NUMBER
OF 90S FOR THE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE ONLY 90S
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR CAME ON JUNE 9TH AND JULY 17TH. ST. CLOUD
HAS ONLY HAD ONE 90 /JUNE 9TH/ AND EAU CLAIRE HAS YET TO OBSERVE A
90 DEGREE DAY.

SUNDAY WILL ALSO END UP BEING WARM GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL
TIMING...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CLOUD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE FRONT TAKES A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA. THIS
LEAVES US WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING...AND
THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER/DRIER AND
SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD GET
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

VERY LITTLE CHG FROM PREVIOUS TAF WITH GOOD AVIATION CONDS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HRS. ONLY A LOW CHC OF MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG/BR FORMATION ARND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW-WSW ARND
5-9 KTS.

KMSP...

NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS THRU THE 30
HR PERIOD. SW-WSW WINDS OF 5-9 KTS WILL CONTINUE.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR IN TSRA. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS BECMG W.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON MS

 845 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
OVERALL CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT...OTHER THAN SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION OVER E MS. 00Z PWATS INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE
NEAR THE COASTAL AREAS WHILE SOMEWHAT DECENT PWATS AROUND 1.6-1.7
INCHES RESIDE IN CENTRAL MS AND QUITE A BIT DRIER AIR TO THE W WITH
PWATS AROUND 1-1.2 INCHES. MOST OF THE CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY HAD
TO FIGHT LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR AND PRODUCED SOME DECENT OUTFLOW THAT
LIKELY PERTURBED THE AREAS IN CENTRAL AND W MS. SO DUE TO
THIS...EXPECT THE ONGOING CONVECTION TO LINGER IN E MS FOR POSSIBLY
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO DUE TO SOME INCREASED DIURNAL LLJ INFLUENCE AND
LIFT FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVING TO THE W OVER W LA. CLOUDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN TO THE E BEFORE MORE LOW CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN
FROM THE E/SE LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO MOVE BACK IN
MAINLY AFTER 12Z IN THE S DUE TO PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF.

LOWS LOOK GOOD OVERNIGHT. ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO CURRENT
TRENDS. INCREASED POPS IN VICINITY OF THE STORMS IN E MS AND BASED ON
RADAR TRENDS. REST OF THE PREVIOUS FCST LOOKS ON TRACK. /DC/

&&

.AVIATION...GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF RAINFALL FROM LATE THIS
AFTN OVER EASTERN MS...THERE MAY BE BETTER PROSPECTS FOR IFR/LIFR
FOG/STRATUS IN THE GTR/MEI/HBG CORRIDOR IN PARTICULAR. THE MOST
RECENT HRRR DOES SHOW AN UPTICK IN LOW STRATUS DEVELOPMENT BUT SEEMS
TOO INDICATE TOO MUCH MIXING FOR THICK FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW WILL
AMEND TAFS TO REFLECT INCREASED STRATUS POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DIMINISHING OF TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY IN INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
/EC/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/

..WELCOME RAINS WILL COME FOR MANY IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT
FOUR OR FIVE DAYS...

DISCUSSION... SHOWERS AND STORMS CURRENTLY COMING INTO EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN A BIT GREATER SUPPLY THAN
ANTICIPATED...AND THIS MAY BE A GOOD OMEN CONCERNING THE TREND
TOWARD A TEMPORARILY WETTER WEATHER PATTERN. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL
TROUGH ADVANCING WEST TOWARD THE HEART OF THE REGION IS TIED CLOSELY
TO ONGOING CONVECTION...BUT EXPECT SOME WEAKENING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ACTIVITY APPROACHING THE I-55
CORRIDOR AND HAS TO FIGHT DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR. A FEW OF THE STORMS
IN EASTERN MS HAVE BEEN VIGOROUS AND GUSTY BUT SEVERE STORMS ARE
STILL NOT LOOKING VERY TERRIBLY LIKELY BECAUSE INSTABILITY AND
RELATED MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS RATHER TAME AT PRESENT.

TONIGHT EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END IN THE EVENING
ALTHOUGH INCREASING GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN SOUTHERN ZONES COULD
KEEP SOME SHOWERS GOING THERE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TOMORROW THE INCREASED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME
OBVIOUS AS SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP BY MIDDAY IN SOUTHERN ZONES
AND WORK STEADILY NORTH THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR IN THE AFTERNOON.
IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD ADVANCE ALL THE WAY
THROUGH NORTHERN ZONES BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE LATTER IS NOT HIGH AT PRESENT. DECENT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WIND VECTORS TOMORROW SHOULD SUPPORT SEMI-ORGANIZED NORTHWARD MOVING
LINE SEGMENTS AND THEREFORE SOME GUSTY WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
WITH STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME THINKING IS THAT
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY BE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO THINK THESE WIND GUSTS
WILL GET TO SEVERE CRITERIA AND THUS THE HWO WAS LEFT CLEAR. OF
COURSE THIS IS SOMETHING WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR THE NEXT FORECAST
PACKAGE ISSUANCE.

MOST MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
GET EVEN BETTER FOR MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HANGS OVER
THE LOWER MS VALLEY. BLENDED POPS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARDS
AND WE HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT. THUNDERSTORMS IN AN EXPECTED 2 TO 2.25
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AIR MASS WILL FOR CERTAIN BE CAPABLE OF
TREMENDOUS DOWNPOURS...BUT THE ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS IN MOST
AREAS ARGUE AGAINST THINKING FLOODING WILL BE A BIG WORRY JUST YET.
OF COURSE SOME SOUTHERN ZONES HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS DRY AND FOR
THEM...MONDAYS RAIN RISK MIGHT WARRANT MENTION IN THE HWO IF
TOMORROW COULD DELIVER ON ITS WET PROMISE. AS ALWAYS...WE WILL
MONITOR. /BB/

LONG TERM...THE STORY FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM IS THE CHANGE
TOWARD A WETTER TYPE PATTERN. THE EURO/GFS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER
AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HOW EACH EVOLVES THE OVERALL PATTERN AND
KEY FEATURES. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO CLIMO NORMS WITH THE VARIATIONS
BEING DRIVEN BY CLOUDS/PRECIP EVENTS AND HOW THE TIMING OF THOSE
EFFECTS THE DIURNAL CYCLE.

FOR TUE...BETTER THAN AVG RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE...BUT THE SETUP
DOESN`T LOOK AS SUPPORTIVE AS MON. THE MAIN REASON IS THE MID LEVELS
WILL HAVE MORE OF A S/WV RIDGE TYPE OF FLOW. HOWEVER...HIGH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AND THIS WILL OVERCOME SOME OF THE
NEGATIVE ELEMENTS.

FOR WED/WED NGT...A MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH WILL DRIVE THE
WEATHER. A STOUT MID AUG TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACTUALLY PROGRESS ENOUGH TO HAVE
LOWERING HEIGHTS ALONG WITH INCREASING FLOW AND LIFT ALOFT TO BRING
MORE OF AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF RAIN/STORMS TO THE REGION. WHILE THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION/TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT
HIGH(5 DAYS OUT)...CONFIDENCE IS ON THE INCREASE DUE TO BETTER
AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/EURO/GEFS/NAEFS. DUE TO THIS...POPS HAVE
BEEN INCREASED.

AS FOR ANY HAZARDS...WED-WED NGT COULD BE INTERESTING AS STORMS WILL
BE INFLUENCED BY MORE SYNOPTIC FORCING AND HAVE MUCH BETTER FLOW TO
WORK WITH. THIS PERIOD COULD OFFER MORE OF AN ORGANIZED THREAT AND
WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION FOR THIS PERIOD.

THU-SAT...IN THE WAKE OF THE STOUT UPPER TROUGH...A LINGERING SFC
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO REMAIN CLOSE TO THE AREA AND HELP PROVIDE SOME LOW
LEVEL FOCUS ALONG WITH KEEPING DECENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AROUND.
MID LEVEL RIDGING LOOKS TO START BUILDING...BUT ENOUGH INGREDIENTS
WILL BE AROUND TO SUPPORT SOME LOWER END POPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
/CME/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       71  93  73  90 /  16  44  32  63
MERIDIAN      69  90  70  88 /  38  59  39  67
VICKSBURG     70  92  72  91 /  14  30  33  58
HATTIESBURG   72  88  72  87 /  16  61  34  69
NATCHEZ       71  89  72  88 /  13  56  32  64
GREENVILLE    70  93  72  92 /  20  16  23  43
GREENWOOD     69  92  72  90 /  20  18  18  51

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

DC/EC/BB/CME



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 944 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE RAP AND HRRR DO NOT SUGGEST ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY DISSIPATING
SO WILL GO WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. GOING LOWS STILL
LOOK GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

KEEPING AN EYE ON STORM OVER S IL BETWEEN K1H2 AND KRSV AS IT DRIFTS
SW, BUT BELIEVE IT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR FAR E COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION`S WEATHER TONIGHT, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ONLY A
VERY MODEST DECREASE IN ITS STRENGTH.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AMS,
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MOST ELEMENTS WITH A VERY
SUBTLE UPTICK IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS.  THIS INCREASE IN MIXING MAY
TEND TO INHIBIT STEAM/RIVER FOG JUST A BIT, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT
OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IN WESTERN OH
AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA SLIDES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THIS AREA 24HRS FROM
NOW.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETUP COLLAPSING TO OUR
WEST...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SUNDAY LINGERS INTO MONDAY
TO BE THE MAIN WX-MAKER...AND THEN A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THRU ON WEDNESDAY.  WHILE THE DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE
RIGHT...THIS WILL HAVE THE DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH THE TYPICAL AUGUST
THERMODYNAMICS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HEADING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT COULD
END UP BEING LOWER/MORE DRY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM SCOURS THE MOISTURE OUT ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE AUGUST TEMPS TO CONTINUE THRU MID-WEEK WITH A
BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM AND IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARD...
WITH A RECOVERY BACK TO NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

MAIN CONCERN AGAIN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE ON POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES. BELIEVE WE WILL SEE SLIGHTLY IMPROVED
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AT TERMINALS COMPARED TO THIS MORNING AS
SFC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED A BIT AND SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST WHICH MAY RESULT IN JUST ENOUGH WINDS AT THE SFC TO PRECLUDE
DENSER FOG. IN ADDITION...AMS MIXED A BIT MORE COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MAX TEMPS.
REGARDLESS...STILL SOME MVFR VISBYS LIKELY AT LEAST BRIEFLY BOTH
AT FAVORED LOWER ELEVATIONS IN KSUS AND KCPS WITH HAZE POSSIBLE AT
KCOU AND KSTL. DIURNAL CU SHOULD DEVELOP BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH LIGHT SSE WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PRIMARILY ACROSS EASTERN OZARKS SO LEFT
TAFS DRY FOR NOW.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

COULD BE SOME MORNING HAZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING UNDER STAGNANT
HIGH PRESSURE. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR WINDS TO COME OUT OF THE SSE
WITH SOME DIURNAL CU LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH BASES AROUND 4500
FEET AGL. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ON
SUNDAY BUT SHOULD STAY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL.


GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 931 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO UPDATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO ADD POPS TO THE EAST HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERS APPEAR TO REACH BILLINGS AREA AROUND 3PM
TODAY. WESTERN STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...OR A MIX
OF WET AND DRY. THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS ARE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AS HIGH AS 50MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUTRUNNING THE CONVECTION
AND INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL JET TO FORCE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST
THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER PWATS
IN THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...NAM AND HRRR INDICATE A PIECE OF
ENERGY IMPACTING BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AROUND THAT TIME...AND SPREADING
CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY...BE IT THE THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR
OUTFLOW RELATED ACTIVITY...LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IMPACT THE
BROADUS/MILES CITY AREAS BY 6PM...AND INTO BAKER/EKALAKA AN HOUR
OR SO LATER. THESE EASTERN STORMS DO LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE OF
THE WETTER VARIETY...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS
HIGH AS 50MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS MUCH CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

FIRE WEATHER REMAINS OF GREAT CONCERN TODAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR BORDERLINE FOR HIGHLIGHTS. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONGLY WORDED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...AND SOCIAL
MEDIA MESSAGING FOR TODAY. AAG

 &&

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE BEGINNING OF
RIDGE BREAKDOWN...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRING VERY HOT MERCURY READINGS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS EAST COULD EASILY REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...BILLINGS
COMES IN AT 102...MILES CITY AT 105 AND SHERIDAN AT 103. OF THOSE
THREE LOCALES...MILES CITY IS THE ONE THAT COULD COME THE CLOSEST
TO APPROACHING A RECORD TODAY WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RIDE
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON STORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST. HRRR SURFACE PRECIP PROGS
SHOW NICE COVERAGE OF PULSE TYPE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION
BY 20 UTC...AND POTENTIALLY INTO BILLINGS BY 22 UTC. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE WET AND WINDY IN NATURE...AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH AN
INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.

IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 1 AM
LOCAL TIME AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY INITIATE SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WILL
NOT RULE OUT AN ACTIVE SPOT FORECAST DAY ON SATURDAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STARTS.

THE FLOW WILL START TO TURN ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY STILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BUT THEN GO DOWN TO MORE TOLERABLE READINGS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUSTY AND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WHICH MAKES IT RIGHT AT THE CUTOFF FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

FIRE WEATHER...TOOK A LOOK AT SOME CIPS GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
WIND PROPERTIES IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME
LAGGED GUIDANCE FOR 850 MB WINDS DO NOT INDICATE SOUTHERLY LLJ
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. FURTHER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CASES WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS IN THE SAME PORTION OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR ONE MORE SHIFT IN LIEU OF STRONGLY
WORDED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER. COORDINATED ALL OF THIS WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS AND SPC. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...


SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO THE BE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
LINGERING IN THE EAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE INHERITED POPS FOR
SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH FOR NEXT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING AS WOULD BE PREFERRED. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY A BLEND OF THE THE SOLUTIONS AND BROADBRUSHING. THE EC
IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS.
ALSO...BOTH ARE TRENDING MORE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FRONT. FOR THE WEST OF THE WEEK IT WILL SOMEWHAT BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE RAINFALL MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
REIMER
&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL GUSTS TO 45KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
STORMS TODAY. IN ADDITION SOME LOCALLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED THERMAL GUSTS TO 25KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. CHAMBERS

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 068/090 056/079 056/085 058/080 056/081 057/081
    3/T 21/N    11/B    11/U    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 093 057/086 048/079 048/084 052/078 049/080 051/080
    3/T 22/T    00/U    11/U    23/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 102 065/092 055/082 055/089 057/083 054/083 055/083
    2/T 21/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 105 071/091 057/080 056/086 060/084 056/083 057/083
    2/T 21/N    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
4BQ 102 065/092 058/081 057/084 059/086 057/082 057/082
    2/T 22/T    11/B    22/T    23/T    33/T    23/T
BHK 100 066/091 055/078 053/082 057/082 055/080 054/081
    2/T 22/T    11/B    13/T    34/T    43/T    32/T
SHR 100 062/093 054/081 053/087 055/083 051/080 053/080
    2/T 21/B    11/B    21/B    23/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

 312 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...

SHORT TERM IMPACTS...VERY HOT TODAY...AND...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE BEGINNING OF
THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRING VERY HOT MERCURY READINGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS EAST COULD EASILY REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS.

LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...BILLINGS
COMES IN AT 102...MILES CITY AT 105 AND SHERIDAN AT 103. OF THOSE
THREE LOCALES...MILES CITY IS THE ONE THAT COULD COME THE CLOSEST
TO APPROACHING A RECORD TODAY WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.

AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RIDE
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON STORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST. HRRR SURFACE PRECIP PROGS
SHOW NICE COVERAGE OF PULSE TYPE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION
BY 20 UTC...AND POTENTIALLY INTO BILLINGS BY 22 UTC. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE WET AND WINDY IN NATURE...AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH AN
INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.

IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 1 AM
LOCAL TIME AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY INITIATE SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WILL
NOT RULE OUT AN ACTIVE SPOT FORECAST DAY ON SATURDAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STARTS.

THE FLOW WILL START TO TURN ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY STILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BUT THEN GO DOWN TO MORE TOLERABLE READINGS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUSTY AND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WHICH PUTS US RIGHT AT THE CUTOFF FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

FIRE WEATHER...TOOK A LOOK AT SOME CIPS GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
WIND PROPERTIES IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME
LAGGED GUIDANCE FOR 850 MB WINDS DO NOT INDICATE SOUTHERLY LLJ
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. FURTHER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CASES WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS IN THE SAME PORTION OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR ONE MORE SHIFT IN LIEU OF STRONGLY
WORDED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER. COORDINATED ALL OF THIS WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS AND SPC. SINGER

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...

SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO THE BE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
LINGER IN THE EAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE INHERITED POPS FOR SUNDAY.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.

MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING AS WOULD BE PREFERRED. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS AND BROADBRUSHING. THE EC IS
FASTER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS. ALSO...BOTH
ARE TRENDING MORE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK IT WILL SOMEWHAT BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE RAINFALL MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LOCALLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. REIMER
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY SAT     SUN     MON     TUE     WED     THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 068/090 056/079 056/085 058/080 056/081 057/081
    3/T 21/N    11/B    11/U    23/T    32/T    22/T
LVM 093 057/086 048/079 048/084 052/078 049/080 051/080
    3/T 22/T    00/U    11/U    23/T    32/T    22/T
HDN 102 065/092 055/082 055/089 057/083 054/083 055/083
    2/T 21/B    11/B    11/U    22/T    22/T    22/T
MLS 105 071/091 057/080 056/086 060/084 056/083 057/083
    1/G 21/N    11/B    12/T    23/T    33/T    22/T
4BQ 102 065/092 058/081 057/084 059/086 057/082 057/082
    1/G 22/T    11/B    22/T    23/T    33/T    23/T
BHK 100 066/091 055/078 053/082 057/082 055/080 054/081
    1/U 22/T    11/B    13/T    34/T    43/T    32/T
SHR 100 062/093 054/081 053/087 055/083 051/080 053/080
    2/T 21/B    11/B    21/B    23/T    32/T    22/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HASTINGS NE

 107 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO CANCEL THE WATCH. WILL PROBABLY
REMOVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...OR AT
THE VERY LEAST...REDUCE THEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS
(HRRR/RAP) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IN THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP.
HAVEN/T SEE STRONG CU DEVELOPMENT YET BUT DO BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR
AND THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN HAVE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THE HRRR DEPICTION IS A BIT
QUICK TIMING WISE AND OPTED TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A COUPLE HOURS.
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE...ALTHOUGH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCE A BIT BUT WANE THEM IN THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SOME HINTS OF SOME MORE LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION IN THE COLUMBUS AREA WITH MID LEVEL SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DRIFTING SOUTH. NOT TAKING THAT OFF THE TABLE YET AND HAVE KEPT LATE
NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST...AND LINGERED THEM INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE IN FULL FORCE BY AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL MID AUGUST DAY.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE SOUTH BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS TODAY...A DAY WE HAVE A FEW PLACES GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WITH HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING. EITHER WAY THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT TO THE WEST AND HAS A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF WOULD
INDICATE THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY FOR THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT THURSDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS HAVE TRIED NOT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS ANY STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH AND SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ANY LONGER FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 1002 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE. LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY.
&&

.UPDATE...OVERALL, THE FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. ONLY MADE A
FEW MINOR EDITS TO POP, WEATHER, AND SKY ACROSS TERRAIN AREAS OF FAR
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY, BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. IF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CLARK
COUNTY, THE STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE TO MOVE SOME OF THAT TOWARD
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, THE KVEF 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED
A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR CONVECTION, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NO
CAPPING AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT MAY HELP INITIATE OR ORGANIZE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD, BUT IT IS RATHER
WEAK. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY,
WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 14KFT, K INDEX IN THE 30S, PW OF OVER AN
INCH, AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH OF 40-50 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER. LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER YUMA COUNTY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE PHOENIX AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST BUT IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CWA.
CLOUDS OVER VEGAS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
I ARRIVED FOR WORK 8 HOURS AGO (83 AT 6 PM AND 82 CURRENTLY AT 2
AM). AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE REGARDING YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES IN
LAS VEGAS...THE LOW OF 77 DEGREES ACTUALLY OCCURRED ROUGHLY 3 1/2
HOURS AFTER THE 1:12 PM HIGH OF 103. THIS LARGE DROP IN TEMPS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VALLEY.

THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MOIST...UNSTABLE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS CAPPING THIS
MORNING OVERCOME BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AN INCH AND
A THIRD PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS LATER TODAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...END ANY
CHANCE FOR STORMS.

THE FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS FROM POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT SUNDAY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT "WATCH" CURRENTLY OUT FOR SUNDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT "WARNING".

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE WEEKEND HOT SPELL
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STRONG CLOSED HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...NEAR YUMA. THE GFS TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND THE MONDAY MAX TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO...THE 850-700MB MEAN TEMP IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 22 DEGREES C OVER LAS VEGAS MONDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THIS CORRELATES TO A 110
DEGREE HIGH IN LAS VEGAS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES. SO...ANY
EXCESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THEY
ALL INDICATE THE GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD LOWER 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY EXCEPT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 15K FEET
BUT COULD BECOME BKN AROUND 10K FEET AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW. ALSO, STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE BEST OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PADDOCK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SALMEN/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAS VEGAS NV

 306 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE. LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER. LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER YUMA COUNTY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE PHOENIX AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST BUT IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CWA.
CLOUDS OVER VEGAS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
I ARRIVED FOR WORK 8 HOURS AGO (83 AT 6 PM AND 82 CURRENTLY AT 2
AM). AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE REGARDING YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES IN
LAS VEGAS...THE LOW OF 77 DEGREES ACTUALLY OCCURRED ROUGHLY 3 1/2
HOURS AFTER THE 1:12 PM HIGH OF 103. THIS LARGE DROP IN TEMPS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VALLEY.

THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MOIST...UNSTABLE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS CAPPING THIS
MORNING OVERCOME BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AN INCH AND
A THIRD PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS LATER TODAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...END ANY
CHANCE FOR STORMS.

THE FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS FROM POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT SUNDAY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT "WATCH" CURRENTLY OUT FOR SUNDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT "WARNING".

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

MONDAY SHOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE WEEKEND HOT SPELL
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STRONG CLOSED HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...NEAR YUMA. THE GFS TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND THE MONDAY MAX TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO...THE 850-700MB MEAN TEMP IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 22 DEGREES C OVER LAS VEGAS MONDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THIS CORRELATES TO A 110
DEGREE HIGH IN LAS VEGAS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES. SO...ANY
EXCESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.

WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THEY
ALL INDICATE THE GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD LOWER 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY EXCEPT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 15K FEET
BUT COULD BECOME BKN AROUND 10K FEET AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW. ALSO, STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE BEST OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES TODAY.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&
$$

SALMEN/ADAIR

FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 1143 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A BACKDOOR FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SWD THROUGH ERN NM OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINING WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCT CONVECTION OVER FAR
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROX 09Z. BOUNDARY APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO
KSAF AND KABQ AFTER 08Z WITH A BRIEF SE/EAST WIND SHIFT. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON -TSRAS OVER THE NE THIRD OF
THE STATE FRIDAY WITH ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY
MOUNTAINS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...929 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015...
.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW FROM UNION COUNTY STORMS HAS SPARKED SOME ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT INTO HARDING COUNTY...AND THERE IS ISOLD CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE SANGRES MOVG S-SEWD FROM COLORADO. RAP NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR BRINGING A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE ERN PLAINS...AND SNUGGLING IT UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40 LATER TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY STRETCHED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
CONVECTION WANING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS GOING IN CENTRAL CO TO
ROTATE TWD NM. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AREA. OVER THE
WEEKEND...GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM BACK INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE FURTHER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HELP NUDGE THAT MOISTURE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THUS...BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS...LOOK FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREAFTER...FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CHUSKA MTNS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM AS WELL WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY BROUGHT IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING. THE NE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING.

MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH IS PARKED SQUARELY OVER NM TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCALES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE A FEW SITES MAY NEAR
RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER NM ON
FRIDAY... HOWEVER...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPARK SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE NE
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL BACK UP TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OR SO OF THE STATE. MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...THUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND PERHAPS MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL REMAIN FAVORED AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR STORMS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. OTHERWISE STORM MOTION ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM N TO S OR NE TO SW.

MODEL DIFFERENCE ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD ELONGATE SOMEWHAT OVER AZ/NM AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DIVES DOWN THE PAC NW COAST. HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION AND THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE DIVERGES FURTHER. THE EC SHOWS A WEAKLY CLOSED LOW/OPEN
TROUGH SLIDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE TUESDAY...
WHEREAS AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...AND THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
LOW...THOUGH ONCE THE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD...EXPECT A DRY
SLOT TO NUDGE INTO AT LEAST NW NM WHICH SHOULD FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND SPOTTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
AREAWIDE EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN MOISTURE THAT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND MIN RH VALUES. STORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY AREAS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. HAINES VALUES WILL BE IN THE 4 AND 5 READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART WITH NEAR RECORD NUMBERS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST.

AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD...FURTHER MOISTURE
WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY
BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR. STEERING FLOW OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NE
TO SW. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND COOLER BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. 4 AND 5 HAINES VALUES WILL HOLD STEADY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY BUT TREND
DOWNWARD BY SUNDAY. FURTHER STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXPECTED EAST
AND CENTRAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
WEST OF NM BEFORE A DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.

POOR VENT RATES FRIDAY...FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ESTANCIA
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...IMPROVING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY...THEN EASTERN
AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

32

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THEN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE GOING
FORWARD ALTHOUGH I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THATS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS NEW YORK. CURRENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM 4 KM CAPTURE THIS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS AND
BRING THE SHOWERS ACROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10Z. SO I BUMPED UP
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LOW CHANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ERODE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND
SHOULDN`T IMPACT MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKIES ARE ALL IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
COSMETIC CHANGES TO MATCH SURFACE CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1044 PM EDT THURSDAY... FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY AND DEW POINTS CREEPING UP A BIT...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR SOME OF THE DATA THAT SUGGESTS DEW POINTS GETTING WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATION OF INSTABILITY AND
MAY BE DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION A BIT TOO MUCH OVER
THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT DOES
NOT MOVE IN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS FORCING WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED...SO THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. WILL
WORD IT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW
WITH THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT THAT TIME SO CAN SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED IN NATURE. FLOW ALOFT IS EVEN WEAKER THAN
FRIDAY...SO PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION ENDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. UNTIL
THEN...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL TREND IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TO
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTH PACIFIC 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF
ALASKA IN 00Z GFS (AND PREVIOUS RUNS) WILL FAVOR NWRN CONUS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN THE MEAN ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST. DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVERHEAD PROVIDES A WARM NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S -- ALONG WITH MID 60S
DEWPOINTS. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +18C IN ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORTING
VALLEY HIGHS 88-92F MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BREAKS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
SHIFTING SEWD FROM ONTARIO BRINGING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY (40-50 POPS). THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. FRONT QUICKLY
DISSIPATES/WASHES OUT AND NEXT SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY BRINGS HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLE
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE EARLY AM LIFR FOG AT MPV
08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
PASSING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DECAYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
SHOWER AT MSS 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH
TIMING/OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT LOCATION
PRECLUDING INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MAINLY SCT-BKN050-070
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8-10KTS 16-23Z AND
THEN GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL BR/FG IS
POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV 06-12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BURLINGTON VT

 156 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THEN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE GOING
FORWARD ALTHOUGH I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THATS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS NEW YORK. CURRENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM 4 KM CAPTURE THIS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS AND
BRING THE SHOWERS ACROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10Z. SO I BUMPED UP
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LOW CHANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ERODE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND
SHOULDN`T IMPACT MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKIES ARE ALL IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
COSMETIC CHANGES TO MATCH SURFACE CONDITIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1044 PM EDT THURSDAY... FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY AND DEW POINTS CREEPING UP A BIT...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR SOME OF THE DATA THAT SUGGESTS DEW POINTS GETTING WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATION OF INSTABILITY AND
MAY BE DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION A BIT TOO MUCH OVER
THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT DOES
NOT MOVE IN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS FORCING WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED...SO THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. WILL
WORD IT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW
WITH THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT THAT TIME SO CAN SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED IN NATURE. FLOW ALOFT IS EVEN WEAKER THAN
FRIDAY...SO PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION ENDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. UNTIL
THEN...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...HOT WEATHER WITH ONE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ARE FEATURED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND
NEARING 90 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THIS ONE FROM
THE NORTH...BUILDING OVER THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE EARLY AM LIFR FOG AT MPV
08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
PASSING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DECAYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
SHOWER AT MSS 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH
TIMING/OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT LOCATION
PRECLUDING INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MAINLY SCT-BKN050-070
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8-10KTS 16-23Z AND
THEN GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL BR/FG IS
POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV 06-12Z SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 936 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM SATURDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ONGOING IN TEH FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE ALL OTHER CONVECTION HAS CEASED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR THE REGION...A LOT OF CIN HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT A BULLSEYE OF STILL VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND MOST
LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL REMAINING IN
THE AREA. DESPITE THE RAP MODEL DEPICTION OF CONTINUOUS LIGHT
CONVECTION IN THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOUS...WOULD EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CEASE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN THE WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT. AS A RESULT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS BUT LESS SO
IN THE WEST OUTSIDE OF AREAS AFFECTED BY PRIOR RAINFALL. LOWS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

DESPITE THEIR TYPICAL DIFFERENCES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OR
SO...WITH THE NAM SHOWING GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE GFS LESS...
BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES
TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...LESS TOWARD KRWI WHERE K INDICES SUNDAY
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT BEST. MUCAPE IS FORECAST ON THE GFS BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500J/KG OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BARELY REGISTERING ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THE SURFACE PATTERN
REMAINS SIMILAR TO TODAY..WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGH. ALOFT...WITH BROAD RIDGING...WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG AT
ALL WITH ANY SHORTWAVE WEAK ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE. PLAN TO FORECAST
BASICALLY PERSISTENCE...DIMINISHED CLOUDS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CU AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KBUY TO NEAR KFAY...POSSIBLY
JUST A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CREEPING EAST REDUCING STABILITY. CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWER
COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP AROUND
AND JUST ABOVE 700MB ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOMES LESS SHARP IN ITS
ORIENTATION. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 90...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 65 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

SHEAR REMNANTS OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH IN PLACE OVER THE
MIDDLE MS VALLEY WILL EJECT EASTWARD DURING THE LATE MONDAY-TUESDAY
TIME FRAME. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD WITH HOW THE SHORT RANGE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS
LOW WITH RESPECT TO POPS. HOWEVER WITH PWATS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
2.0-2.10"...ASSOCIATED DPVA WHEN COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL
HEATING MAY PROVE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT UPTICK IN
POPS/CONVECTIVE CHANCES DURING THAT TIME. HAVE RAISED POPS TO
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT
SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT DOWN AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HEIGHTS ALOFT INCREASE OVER THE REGION DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM OF THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/CLOSED UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO TRACK FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD
CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARD JAMES BAY. PWATS WILL REMAIN
WET(~2.0") WITHIN THE DEEPENING SWLY FLOW ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THIS
SYSTEM...AND IN THE ABSENCE OF MORE SIGNIFICANT FORCING...EXPECT
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL POPS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES COULD INCREASE TO HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY BY
FRIDAY...CONDITIONAL ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA...WHICH MODELS HAVE SHOWN LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY AT THIS
TIME.

HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE TYPICAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S RANGES.
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY WEAK WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOWER-THAN-USUAL
MOISTURE AND A LACK OF STRONG WEATHER FEATURES WILL LEAD TO
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THERE IS HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE OF A STRAY
STORM PASSING NEAR INT SUN AFTERNOON... AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS
EVENING... AS STORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND DRIFT
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF MVFR FOG AT ANY TAF SITE
LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z MON (SUN EVENING)... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN... ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
SUB-VFR FOG WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH A GROWING RISK OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS STARTING MON NIGHT... MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... LASTING AT LEAST INTO THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
ACTUALLY OCCURRED UNDERNEATH THE COMMA...WHERE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON MSAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS IS
WHERE THE CAP WAS WEAKEST BASED ON THE MORNING UPPER-AIR
SOUNDINGS... AND CLOSER TO WHAT THE NAM WAS PORTRAYING IN ITS QPF.
WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WHILE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION... THOUGH JUST BARELY AT KGSO...THE NAM ERODES ANY CAP
AND THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR MAYBE
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON ANY ISOLATED SHOWER SHOULD DIMINISH...WITH
AREAS TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT BEING THE LAST TO HAVE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER END. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE THICKNESSES AND THE THERMAL
WIND IS SUCH THAT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST... SO WHATEVER DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO LINGER
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST MAY MAKE IT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OR
GENERATE ON SOME REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S UNDER AN AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
GUIDANCE AVERAGE EXPECTING AREAS OF GOOD CLEARING LATE AND SOME
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S AS OF THIS WRITING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

LATELY IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE BASED ON ITS
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND QPF...WHILE THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY
MORE UNSTABLE...ERODING ANY CAP DURING THE DAY...WITH SMATTERINGS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING QPF. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR THE 12Z RUN...AND
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOME
DEFERENCE TO THE NAM IS WARRANTED ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT...WITH
LITTLE OVERALL FORCING...DEEP CONVECTION TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED. THE
NAM AND GFS AGREE ON GOOD 850MB UVV OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 40
AND 85...WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND K INDICES
WHILE THE 300MB WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASE IS NOT GREAT...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS CERTAINLY LIMITED. LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS LIMITED TO MOSTLY A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ANY MID-LEVEL WAVE IS WEAK AS WELL. GFS QPF IS
COMPLETELY DRY...WHEREAS THE NAM SUGGESTS BY 00Z SUNDAY ISOLATED
POCKETS OF QPF ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 DRIFTING SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL NOTE MORE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AREAS LAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...87 TO 92. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OVERALL...SLIGHTLY MORE
NOTICEABLE WITH MIXING LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERY OUTFLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...

CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND.

WAVE TRAIN OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL NUDGE THE WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...SHEARING OUT ALONG THE
WAY. RESULTANT DPVA ACROSS THE AREA MAY PROVE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN IN
POPS/CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

AS TROUGHING ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD
BOOST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND MARK A RETURN TO
MAINLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM...AND MAINLY
NEAR KRWI AND KFAY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES COULD
BRIEFLY FALL BELOW VFR IN FOG. SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOULD BE TOO
ISOLATED AND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS TO PLACE IN
A TAF SITE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT SHOULD
SLOWLY VEER FROM MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THROUGH MONDAY A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT NEAR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG NEAR WHERE IT HAS RAINED OR PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND
KRWI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR. AGAIN...AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR IN
A MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 207 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOST ENHANCED CU OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AROUND NOON UNDERNEATH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE...AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING FAINT BUT PERCEPTIBLE WEAK
ECHOES NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. KINT DEW POINT WAS 66F...AND WHILE THE
KGSO DEW POINT HAD FALLEN TO 63F...AND VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...
WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVING THE KGSO 12Z
SOUNDING...THE CAP AROUND 700MB WILL BE A WEAK ONE AND COULD BE
OVERCOME IN SPOTS. MSAS LIFTED INDEX WAS ALSO HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AROUND -5C. AS A RESULT...NOTED AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS SUGGESTS A LINGERING EVENING
POTENTIAL NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER AND NOTED THAT FOR AN EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE HRRR WRF ALSO CONTINUES TO NOTE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS 86
TO 91.

TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING VORT MAX SHOULD OCCUR. UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
NEAR THE SURFACE...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST LIFTS NWD...RESULTING IN RISING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY. THICKNESSES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PREDICTED TO BE INT HE UPPER 1420S NEAR
1430M...ABOUT 8M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUPPORTS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
BECOME WETTER WITH TIME...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60-LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS IT WILL FEEL HOT
EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE MANNER OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SUNDAY MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN-SE PERIPHERY...AND DUE TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC INTO
THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER NEXT WEEK...COLLABORATING WITH WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CORRESPONDING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 88-92 EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS
RISING A FEW METERS...COULD SEE A NUDGE UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR WED AND THU IN PRECEEDING DAYS. MORNING MINS WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM...AND MAINLY
NEAR KRWI AND KFAY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES COULD
BRIEFLY FALL BELOW VFR IN FOG. SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOULD BE TOO
ISOLATED AND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS TO PLACE IN
A TAF SITE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT SHOULD
SLOWLY VEER FROM MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.

BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THROUGH MONDAY A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT NEAR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG NEAR WHERE IT HAS RAINED OR PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND
KRWI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR. AGAIN...AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR IN
A MOIST AIR MASS.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...

VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOST ENHANCED CU OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AROUND NOON UNDERNEATH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE...AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING FAINT BUT PERCEPTIBLE WEAK
ECHOES NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. KINT DEW POINT WAS 66F...AND WHILE THE
KGSO DEW POINT HAD FALLEN TO 63F...AND VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...
WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVING THE KGSO 12Z
SOUNDING...THE CAP AROUND 700MB WILL BE A WEAK ONE AND COULD BE
OVERCOME IN SPOTS. MSAS LIFTED INDEX WAS ALSO HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AROUND -5C. AS A RESULT...NOTED AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS SUGGESTS A LINGERING EVENING
POTENTIAL NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER AND NOTED THAT FOR AN EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE HRRR WRF ALSO CONTINUES TO NOTE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS 86
TO 91.

TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING VORT MAX SHOULD OCCUR. UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
NEAR THE SURFACE...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST LIFTS NWD...RESULTING IN RISING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY. THICKNESSES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PREDICTED TO BE INT HE UPPER 1420S NEAR
1430M...ABOUT 8M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUPPORTS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
BECOME WETTER WITH TIME...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60-LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS IT WILL FEEL HOT
EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE MANNER OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SUNDAY MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN-SE PERIPHERY...AND DUE TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC INTO
THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER NEXT WEEK...COLLABORATING WITH WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CORRESPONDING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 88-92 EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS
RISING A FEW METERS...COULD SEE A NUDGE UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR WED AND THU IN PRECEEDING DAYS. MORNING MINS WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU WITH
BASES AROUND 6000FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH MAINLY
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A SHOWER WILL
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE FOR THE CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...MAY SEE AN INCREASE FOR THE PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF/WSS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 942 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL WAVE OVER VIRGINIA EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. ASIDE FROM THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE ARE
SEVERAL CONS FOR PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE ARE A RELATIVELY DRY MEAN AIR MASS AND K
INDICES FORECAST LOWER THAN THURSDAY WHEN THEN EVEN THE SHOWERS WERE
VERY ISOLATED...A WEAK 250MB JETLET LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA...A MINIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E VALUES ACTUALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF U.S. 1 RELATIVE TO THURSDAY...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
GENERALLY CAPPED GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE
PROS ARE THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS QUITE OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS FORECAST BY THE
RAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE
7C/KM...AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR WRF AND ARW GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1.
ADDED A SLENDER REGION OF JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AS THAT AREA IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND WHERE THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN
THE LOWEST 3KM THAT ACTUALLY REGISTERS TO AROUND 100J/KG OR SO. 1000-
850MB THICKNESS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST
RAISING MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...FOR HIGHS 86 TO 91.

TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING VORT MAX SHOULD OCCUR. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD
OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...

TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST LIFTS NWD...RESULTING IN RISING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY. THICKNESSES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PREDICTED TO BE INT HE UPPER 1420S NEAR
1430M...ABOUT 8M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUPPORTS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
BECOME WETTER WITH TIME...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60-LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS IT WILL FEEL HOT
EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.

ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE MANNER OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY.  A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SUNDAY MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN-SE PERIPHERY...AND DUE TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC INTO
THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...

PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER NEXT WEEK...COLLABORATING WITH WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CORRESPONDING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 88-92 EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS
RISING A FEW METERS...COULD SEE A NUDGE UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR WED AND THU IN PRECEEDING DAYS. MORNING MINS WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...

HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU WITH
BASES AROUND 6000FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH MAINLY
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A SHOWER WILL
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE FOR THE CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...MAY SEE AN INCREASE FOR THE PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF/WSS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

 140 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
I WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST OHIO UNTIL NEAR DAWN. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...I
WILL PUSH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. I WILL DECREASE THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT
SECTION OF THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF INTO PA AND NY AS WESTERLIES RAMP UP IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING MEAN LAYER RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE...OR HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
SE ACROSS MI INTO OH SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THROUGH DAY
BREAK...THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST. IN GENERAL LOWS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 60 WITH SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRI
EVENING...A FEW TSTORMS MAY POP UP AS CAPES RISE INTO THE 1000 -
1500 J PER KG RANGE. BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING REAL ORGANIZED. THE FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHES OUT ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...SO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR PURPOSES OF
THE FORECAST...KEY IN ON THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR BEST
ODDS OF PRECIP. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN
AS THE HIGH PROJECTS ITSELF BACK ACROSS OHIO AT THE SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY...MAKING IT
FEEL VERY SUMMERLIKE WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
MON ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE SMALL CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON THEN RAMP
UP POPS INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE AREA.

BY TUE...STILL NOT SURE IF THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SPARE THE LAKESHORE FROM A CHANCE FOR RAIN. TUE
NIGHT INTO WED ANOTHER S/W IS SHOWN DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WITH
THE OLD FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING BACK NE ACROSS THE CWA
AND TENDING TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THU SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS
IN THE FORECAST. WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE POP FOR THU INTO THU
NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW MORE UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN.

WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON MON WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE WINDS FROM
THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE. BY THU...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE SO TEMPS MORE IN QUESTION BY THEN BUT WILL
SHOW SOME WARMING TAKING PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FEET MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS MOST AREAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY.

OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRI THEN DIMINISH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE
TURNING MORE WEST AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE LAKE.
COULD SEE WAVES EAST OF FAIRPORT HARBOR INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA
CRITERIA BY SOMETIME FRI MORNING.

FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT SHOULD BECOME SOUTH BY SUN THEN
SW BY SUN EVE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MON. ANOTHER
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MON NIGHT
TO PRODUCE NW WINDS FOR TUE BUT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

 401 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
LOW MOVES WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MILD DRY
WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
TUE AND WED AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION. OTHERWISE..DRY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW HAS VERY SLOWLY
MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COAST NOW CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE
GOLD BEACH COAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 2 DISTINCT
AREAS OF DYNAMIC LIFT. ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW CENTER AND IS BRINGING AN ELONGATED BAND
OF SHOWERS PLUS ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING FROM THE CURRY AND COOS
COUNTY COAST NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. THIS BAND
IS ABOUT TO REACH FLORENCE ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER LIFT AND LIGHTNING
APPEARS TO HAVE EASED FOR THE MOMENT. THE SECOND AREA IS ORIGINATING
ALONG THE COLUMBIA/COWLITZ/WAHKIAKUM BORDERS AND STRETCHES NORTH
WELL INTO THE PUGET SOUND AREA. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND IS BRINGING MUCH STRONGER
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCREASING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF
OUR AREA.

MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT FAST IN LIFTING THE LOW NORTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO REALITY AND THIS HAS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED THE FORECAST.
A DRY SLOT IS ORIENTED N-S BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
WHICH IS AT LEAST HELPING GET A VISUAL ON THE MARINE STRATUS PUSHING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MAY GIVE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR THE STRATUS TO BURN OFF EARLIER. THIS GIVES A SOMEWHAT BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN LESS MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER SURFACE HEATING TO BREAK A LOW LEVEL MARINE
INFLUENCED CAP. PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD THUNDER GENERALLY NON-SURFACE
BASED GIVEN THE UPPER LOW CORE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND THEN
ONLY FOR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MARINE INFLUENCE WAS
FAR WEAKER. BUT GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE LOW MOVEMENT...HAVE
GENERALLY PUSHED THE TS THREAT AREA BACK TO THE WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO COVER THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES. OUR AREA APPEARS TO DODGE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER JET AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.
THUS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. DO CONTINUE TO BELIEVE OUR WASHINGTON
ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT MODEST RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW CENTER FILLS AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN
WAVE. LATEST HRRR AND THE SUITE OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT AIR OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PICTURE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND METRO HOWEVER. THEY ARE INDICATING A MUCH MORE
ISOLATED PICTURE OF POTENTIAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING EVEN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.

PRECIP WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VERY LITTLE
REMAINING IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS COME SUNRISE UNDER THE LAST VESTIGES
OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FLOW THEN TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AS A BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR CANADA. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE WEAK UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW AREA. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TODAY AS
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING THREE BUT STILL WARMING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD UP THE COAST
WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY AT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. /JBONK

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO CHANGES MADE
ALTHOUGH WILL NOTE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED THE EARLY WEEK LOW A BIT
FURTHER INLAND AND WITH A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THAN THE GFS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS HAVE COME TO A
STRONG CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW ON MON INTO TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL COME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG. THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE TROUGH
QUICKLY THROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WOULD BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK INTO
THE 70S. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
INTO ANOTHER OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW...WHICH SLOWS THE PROGRESSION
CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ADD TOO MUCH DETAIL TO THE FCST
BEYOND TUE UNTIL WE SEE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS.
PYLE
&&

.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL STRATUS IS PREDOMINANTLY HOLDING WITH MVFR CIGS WITH
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR...EXCEPT KONP WHERE LOWER STRATUS IS
REDUCING CIGS TO LIFR. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE STAYING 10
NM OFFSHORE BUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INLAND CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR BUT SHOULD
LOWER TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS STRATUS
BECOMES MORE SOLID ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS NOW SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MUCH LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN 14Z-16Z THAT COULD MAKE THERE WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH KEUG
AND KSLE. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 18Z MAINLY
IMPACTING NORTHERN INLAND TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
ISOLATED TSRA WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS INLAND.

CIGS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR LATE
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INLAND. CIGS INLAND WILL IMPROVE TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FURTHER SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN
SITES SHOULD STAY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO START TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
AROUND 00Z-03Z SATURDAY AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY.
-MCCOY
&&

.MARINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. A MODERATE SURGE OF S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO
20 KT IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...FRESH SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 TO 6
FT THIS EVENING.

THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REDEVELOPS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL START TO GENERATE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST WINDS IF NOT STEEP SEAS. WITH
GUSTY WINDS SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
7 FT AND WAVE PERIODS AROUND 7 TO 8 SECONDS. SUNDAY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON WATERS WHICH COULD AGAIN WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. -MCCOY
&&

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&


INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 840 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED AND
SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
DEEP CONVECTION ALONG ELONGATED UPPER SHEAR AXIS IS DISSIPATING
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PA LATE THIS EVENING. ISOLD SHRA WILL
CONTINUE IN A FEW SPOTS THROUGH LATE EVENING BEFORE EVERYTHING IS
PUT TO BED FOR THE NIGHT. DECREASED POPS AND COVERAGE AFTER 02Z.
AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS OFF. IT WILL BE MILD AND MUGGY NIGHT
WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AND MIN
TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND 60F NORTH TO THE MID 60S SOUTHEAST.
EXPECT PATCHY VALLEY FOG TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL VALLEYS WHICH SAW RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY
WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTH AGAIN...AND WENT WITH LOW
POPS THERE IN HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S
EVERYWHERE...WILL APPROACH 90 OVER SERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...KEEPING THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY GOING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK IN ON ITS HEELS FOR MID WEEK.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PRODUCE SCT
TSRA OVR NORTHERN PA THRU ARND SUNSET THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS
AND HRRR OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST NO CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE TSRA THIS EVENING.

EARLY EVENING TSRA SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD LATE NIGHT FOG. CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA BTWN 04Z-12Z. KBFD AND KIPT APPEAR LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY AM. ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT /MVFR/ FOG
IS EXPECTED ARND SUNRISE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY...ENSURING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR/RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 745 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED AND
SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED UPPER SHEAR AXIS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
GLAKS AND FINGERLAKES AND IS INITIATING AND MAINTAINING SCT-NMRS
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE NORTH CENTRAL PA
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PEAK SHORTLY BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS
OFF.

TEMPS INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SE WILL FALL BACK TO
GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY
WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTH AGAIN...AND WENT WITH LOW
POPS THERE IN HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S
EVERYWHERE...WILL APPROACH 90 OVER SERN AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...KEEPING THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY GOING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.

A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK IN ON ITS HEELS FOR MID WEEK.

THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PRODUCE SCT
TSRA OVR NORTHERN PA THRU ARND SUNSET THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS
AND HRRR OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST NO CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE TSRA THIS EVENING.

EARLY EVENING TSRA SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD LATE NIGHT FOG. CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA BTWN 04Z-12Z. KBFD AND KIPT APPEAR LIKELY
TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS EARLY SUNDAY AM. ACROSS
SOUTHERN PA...NOTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT /MVFR/ FOG
IS EXPECTED ARND SUNRISE.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY...ENSURING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...

MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

TUE-THU...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

 125 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RIDGE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST COOL LOW HUMIDITY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOW SET IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.

WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS AND LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANY VALLEY FOG IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BURNS OFF FAST. WEAK RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AND STEADILY MOISTER AIR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

THE LATEST HRRR WHICH NOW GOES TO ABOUT NOON FRIDAY SHOWS NO HINT
OF CONVECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AND LIKELY
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE AT 16Z. BUT IT DOES SHOW THE MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BUT THE NCEP MODELS AND BLENDS ALL IMPLY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS BY
THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. THE NEW 21Z
SREF IS OF COURSE DRIER THAN THE 15Z SREF AND KEEPS THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY BORDER. THE TWO BEST
AREAS OF CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER WOULD BE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER AND
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TRIED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHWEST
AND CHANCE FOCUSED MAINLY WARREN AND MCKEAN TAPERING OFF TO EAST
AND SOUTH.

COULD BE LINGERING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
CHANCE POPS. THE COURSER SREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS USE
PARAMETERIZED PRECIPITATION SO THEY MAY BE TOO WET. BUT HAD TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT LOWERING WITH TIME.

GUIDANCE IMPLIES WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY THOUGH PW
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL. AT THIS TIME THE 21Z SREF AND 15Z SREF
PARALLEL SUGGEST BEST CHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS IN UPDATED FORECAST.

GOOD NEWS IS MOST MEMBERS SHOW A FEW HUNDRETHS AT THIS TIME AND
ONLY A FEW GET CLOSE TO 0.50 INCHES IN 24 HOURS SO LIGHT SHOWERS
IS THE FORECAST IMPLICATION. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW CAPE
GENERALLYIN THE 1200 JKG-1 RANGE ON SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW WITH
HIGH CAPE AT THIS TIME. CAPE OVER 1200 JKG-1 IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME KEEP CELLS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY LOWS/TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE OVER AND
AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES AND THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY THE
CORRESPONDING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST WILL
DEEPEN....BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. AS
THIS BOUNDARY STALL AND MOVES INTO DRIER AIR...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA...AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY CONVECTION.

 AS THE FRONT STALLS SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE AT OR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER
AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REST OF CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY ON TIMING SO HAVE LEFT BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SW FLOW OF AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SE OF OUR AREA.

TOOK FOG OUT OF BFD...WINDS ARE SW THERE.

SOME MID AND HIGH CLDS LATER TODAY.

THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM LATE...BUT DEWPOINTS NOT
REAL HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

OUTLOOK...

SAT-TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...MARTIN



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

 1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...LATEST HRRR PRECIP PROGS, MODEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FORECASTS, AND ONGOING RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON POPS FOR SOME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PROBABLY GO WITH
THE MENTION OF "SCATTERED" ACTIVITY AND A 30% POP.

OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      89  67  90  68 /  20  20  20  20
CLARKSVILLE    88  65  90  66 /  10  20  20  20
CROSSVILLE     83  64  83  64 /  20  20  30  20
COLUMBIA       88  66  90  67 /  20  20  20  20
LAWRENCEBURG   88  66  89  68 /  20  20  20  20
WAVERLY        88  65  89  67 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

19




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 354 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)

Well, models continue to indicate at least slight chance PoPs for
the next 24 hours. Northerly flow aloft will continue for the next
24 hours, and create the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The HRRR indicates isolated convection, across all of West Central
Texas until around midnight. For consistency, continuing slight
chance PoPs for all of tonight and tomorrow looks reasonable;
however, convection beyond midnight until around early afternoon
tomorrow, may be very spotty. The primary hazards, for the next 24
hours, are wind gusts and deadly lightning. With cloud bases around
10K above ground level, micro bursts may produce wind gusts around
45 mph.

Huber

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)

Upper high pressure will weaken early next week. This will allow a
moderation in highs...into the mid 90s. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns the second half of next week, as West
Central Texas will be an upper trough...between upper high
pressure over the Southeast and Southwest United States. A weak
cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will also provide a low
level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  72  96  73  97 /  20  20   5   5
San Angelo  73  97  73  97 /  20  20   5   5
Junction  72  96  72  96 /  20  20  20   5

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

TH/04




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 357 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A DOMINANT MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO...PLACING NORTH TEXAS IN A NORTH FLOW REGIME...AND THIS
GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAT THE OK PANHANDLE...AND IS PROGGED TO
ROTATE SLOWLY AND STEADILY SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDOR. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE. POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
DROPS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE.

SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AND BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...IS 36 TO 48 HOURS SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND WILL
ONLY ADVERTISE LOW-END POPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NEITHER SOLUTION BRINGS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALL
THAT FAR SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...HIGHER POPS WOULD BECOME WARRANTED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE POP FORECAST FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK ONCE MODELS BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE 06 UTC TAF
CYCLE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER POSSIBLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD YIELD TO AREAS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 00 UTC NAM
AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REMAIN THE LONE AGGRESSORS WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY ON FRI MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW WILL OPT TO
LEAVE THE TAF DRY. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP...IT WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR WESTERN ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE
GATES. TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE TO ESE AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOP.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
4-6 HOURS BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LAMP
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SUGGESTED SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW
DUE TO LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA THAT SUPPORTS THE LATEST LAMP OUTPUT. NEVERTHELESS WILL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE CHANGES SHOULD MVFR CIGS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE TAF SITE. SIMILAR TO THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE TAF SITE.

BAIN


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  75  97  77  98 /   5   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX             101  74  99  75  98 /   5   5  20   5  10
PARIS, TX             95  68  94  72  96 /   0   0   0   5  10
DENTON, TX            97  71  96  72  97 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          97  70  96  71  96 /   0   0   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX           100  76  97  77  99 /   0   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           98  72  97  72  98 /   0   0   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         99  73  99  72  97 /   5   5  10   5  10
TEMPLE, TX           100  73  98  74  96 /   5   5  20  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     98  70  96  73  96 /  20   5  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS FORT WORTH TX

 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE 06 UTC TAF
CYCLE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER POSSIBLE.

FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD YIELD TO AREAS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 00 UTC NAM
AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REMAIN THE LONE AGGRESSORS WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY ON FRI MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW WILL OPT TO
LEAVE THE TAF DRY. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP...IT WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR WESTERN ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE
GATES. TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE TO ESE AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOP.

FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
4-6 HOURS BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LAMP
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SUGGESTED SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW
DUE TO LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA THAT SUPPORTS THE LATEST LAMP OUTPUT. NEVERTHELESS WILL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE CHANGES SHOULD MVFR CIGS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE TAF SITE. SIMILAR TO THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE TAF SITE.


BAIN

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORCAST AREA HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON.

THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND TOMORROW AND AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF JUST MENTIONING 10 PERCENTS AND ISOLATED...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20
PERCENTS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.

A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST
TEXAS SATURDAY AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 PERCENT/
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SOME LOW
CHANCES /10-20 PERCENT/ MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

58



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  99  75  97  77 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              75 101  74  99  75 /  10   5   5  20   5
PARIS, TX             68  95  68  94  72 /   0   0   0   0   5
DENTON, TX            73  97  71  96  72 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          71  97  70  96  71 /   5   0   0   5   5
DALLAS, TX            78 100  76  97  77 /   5   0   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           72  98  72  97  72 /   5   0   0   5   5
CORSICANA, TX         74  99  73  99  72 /   5   5   5  10   5
TEMPLE, TX            75 100  73  98  74 /  10   5   5  20  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     73  98  70  96  73 /  10  20   5  10   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

15/05




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 213 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK WAVES MOVES THROUGH...THOUGH STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS RIGHT NOW. HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AND STILL SHOWS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED POPS FOR NOW.

THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD HANG ON INTO LATE EVENING...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.

UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO WENT WITH SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPS. ONLY BIG DIFFERENCE IS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT FROM GETTING AS HOT AS INLAND. MAY
SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE WITHIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A CORRIDOR FROM THE SE TO NW
FORECAST AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE RIDGE.

.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 700 MB WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT REMAIN WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
850 MB WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE MORE...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
TO THE NORTH. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 20 CELSIUS AS
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE. DESPITE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 6 CELSIUS/KM...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB. THEREFORE SUNDAY
SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 28 CELSIUS...SO ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS EXPECTED. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 90. APPEARS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL MIX OUT DEW POINTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEREFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.


.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH

THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER AREA DROPPING TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AN 115 KNOT 250 MB UPPER JET WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER MONDAY. THIS INCREASES THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT COOLS A
LITTLE AS IT DOES. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 CELSIUS.
THE 850 MB WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AROUND 20 KNOTS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN YET ON THE GFS.

ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE IS WEAKER AT ONLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 JOULES/KG
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.7 CELSIUS/KM. THE GFS HAS
SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY...BUT IT IS FAIRLY LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...

.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA.

THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY.

.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVES THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
TAKES A STRONG LOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PREFER THE WEAKER AND
SLOWER LOW ON THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY.

.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

A ZONAL FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE OF A TROUGH NEAR THE
NORTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY THURSDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING A QUICKER SOUTH FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.

BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP A LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...

STILL THINK A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT TO FORM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

COULD SEE SOME FOG IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.

A COUPLE MODELS ARE FIRING OFF A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A
CORRIDOR FROM THE SE TO NW FORECAST AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING LEANS EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

 1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.UPDATE...

MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING. WITH THE INCREASING SUNSHINE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPS STILL
SEEM REASONABLE. IF ANYTHING...MAY NEED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES GIVEN HOW WARM MODEL 925 MB TEMPS ARE.

STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK WAVES MOVES THROUGH. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH...DEPENDING ON WHAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL
BE. THINK GFS IS MIXING TOO MUCH...WHILE NAM IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO
MOIST AT THE SURFACE. WILL PROBABLY END UP SEEING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN WHAT THOSE TWO MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW STORMS GIVEN ENOUGH LIFT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

COULD SEE SOME FOG IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.

STILL THINK A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT TO FORM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

A COUPLE MODELS ARE FIRING OFF A FEW STORMS IN THE EAST SATURDAY
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING LEANS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM

CURRENT POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SW LOWER MICHIGAN BACK
ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH...WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FROM SE
MN INTO SW WI DRIVEN BY CVA OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SE OUT OF SE
MN...AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN N CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT REACHES THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN BY 12Z...
AND EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.

FIRST AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER SW PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING. THEN
QUIET UNTIL SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DEEPLY MIXED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ALSO VERY DRY. CLOUD BASES
WOULD BE UP AROUND 7K TO 8K FT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH BETTER
FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM...WHICH SUPPORTS SPC MARGINAL AREA IN THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTH OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT..BUT WILL
LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE TROUGH
IS SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF REGION.

925MB TEMPS SUPPORT WARM HIGHS AROUND 90...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PCPN MAY
LIMIT MAXES A BIT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
WI THIS WEEKEND. A BAGGY SURFACE GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
A LAKE BREEZE. BY SUNDAY... A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH
IN SOUTHERN WI. THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM AFFECTING
LAKESHORE AREAS.

THE MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE POSTPONING ANY PRECIP ARRIVING IN
SOUTHERN WI UNTIL MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
EXTENSIVE DRY AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT IT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME... TRIMMED BACK POPS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CORRESPONDING WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT... ALONG WITH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... WILL STALL
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN WI. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD HAVE QUIET WEATHER SINCE THERE
WILL BE A LACK OF FORCING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.

LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI. AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MANY TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS SO EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...NOT AS WINDY TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CLOUD
BASES WILL BE HIGH...SO ONLY EXPECT MVFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT REACH A TAF SITE...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS HAVING
THE BETTER CHANCE THAN THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WHICH SUPPORTS SPC MARGINAL
AREA IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TONIGHT...ENHANCED IN LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE RAIN TODAY...FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT
925-850MB AND WEAK 850-700MB QG FORCING PER THE 13.15Z RAP.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE 13.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE 13.15Z RAP AND 13.12Z NAM SHOW A CAP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THIS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH 06Z...AND AFTER 06Z CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.

NEXT WEAK IMPULSE MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
WISCONSIN. CONFINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.

WARM AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 90S AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLATTENS RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BUILDS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST
925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO PLUS 25 TO PLUS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S.

FOCUS TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND AMPLIFY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE MODELS SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS HAS MAJOR IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 15.06Z. EXPECT
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL LAYER BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT KLSE AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS





AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 139 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF STORMS
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN SUSTAINING THESE STORMS IN ADDITION
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THERE AS WELL. IF STORMS DO
MOVE INTO CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES...THEY WILL BE MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AM
DOUBTFUL THEY WILL MOVE VERY FAR INTO EITHER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SHOWING TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AT 12Z FROM THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CWA. AFTER...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AND
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE US.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS INDICATING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THERE IS AN
INFLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO DOMINATING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RETURN BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING INTO THE
80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR BOTH SITES. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DURING THIS TIME SO DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN ONE WAVE WILL START AND ANOTHER WILL END. DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES MOVE
OVER A SITE...EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY
LOWER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 132 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF STORMS
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN SUSTAINING THESE STORMS IN ADDITION
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THERE AS WELL. IF STORMS DO
MOVE INTO CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES...THEY WILL BE MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AM
DOUBTFUL THEY WILL MOVE VERY FAR INTO EITHER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SHOWING TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AT 12Z FROM THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CWA. AFTER...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AND
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE US.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS INDICATING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THERE IS AN
INFLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO DOMINATING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE IN BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY IN
THE 70S AND THEN RETURN BACK TO NORMAL IN THE 80S TO 90S BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR BOTH SITES. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DURING THIS TIME SO DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN ONE WAVE WILL START AND ANOTHER WILL END. DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES MOVE
OVER A SITE...EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY
LOWER.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF STORMS
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN SUSTAINING THESE STORMS IN ADDITION
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THERE AS WELL. IF STORMS DO
MOVE INTO CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES...THEY WILL BE MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AM
DOUBTFUL THEY WILL MOVE VERY FAR INTO EITHER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN
TERMS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY AFTER A TUESDAY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE CRAWLING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.80 INCHES INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT TRAIN. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETERS BUT FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO MONITOR.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO CONTINUE THE STORMY PATTERN.
INSTABILITY BUILDS UP ONCE AGAIN BUT WIND SHEAR IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING WITH A
STALLED FRONT IN THE REGION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT RECEIVED. A LITTLE UNSURE
ON HOW SUBSTANTIAL A SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP BECAUSE OF
FOG/STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND AGREE WITH
THEIR ASSESSMENT. AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SUNDAY EVENING...FLASH FLOODING
MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY IF SOILS ARE SATURATED.

TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH...FORCING THE
FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION OF TIMING REMAINS
BUT A LATER EJECTION...AS SHOWN WITH LATEST EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...WOULD FAVOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ONCE
AGAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT...ANTICIPATE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS
WILL BE THE CHANCES FOR STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FOR BOTH SITES. CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO FORM IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH COVERAGE PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY LASTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL
BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DURING THIS TIME SO DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE WHEN ONE WAVE WILL START AND ANOTHER WILL END. DOES LOOK
LIKE THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL
AND SEVERE WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF HEAVY RAINFALL DOES MOVE
OVER A SITE...EXPECT VISIBILITIES TO FALL TO MVFR OR POSSIBLY
LOWER.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 1051 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

UPDATED FORECAST FOR THE EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE AREA OF STORMS
OVER LINCOLN COUNTY. LIFT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
JUST WEST OF THE AREA HAS BEEN SUSTAINING THESE STORMS IN ADDITION
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET THERE AS WELL. IF STORMS DO
MOVE INTO CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES...THEY WILL BE MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. SINCE THESE STORMS ARE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AM
DOUBTFUL THEY WILL MOVE VERY FAR INTO EITHER OF THOSE COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.

SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN
TERMS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY AFTER A TUESDAY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE CRAWLING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.80 INCHES INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT TRAIN. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETERS BUT FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO MONITOR.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO CONTINUE THE STORMY PATTERN.
INSTABILITY BUILDS UP ONCE AGAIN BUT WIND SHEAR IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING WITH A
STALLED FRONT IN THE REGION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT RECEIVED. A LITTLE UNSURE
ON HOW SUBSTANTIAL A SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP BECAUSE OF
FOG/STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND AGREE WITH
THEIR ASSESSMENT. AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SUNDAY EVENING...FLASH FLOODING
MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY IF SOILS ARE SATURATED.

TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH...FORCING THE
FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION OF TIMING REMAINS
BUT A LATER EJECTION...AS SHOWN WITH LATEST EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...WOULD FAVOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ONCE
AGAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT...ANTICIPATE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. BREEZY WINDS FROM THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE EVENING BEFORE
DECREASING. OVERNIGHT THERE COULD BE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN
VISIBILITY AT KGLD DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TEMPERATURES
COOLING TO THE DEW POINT. HOWEVER CLIMATOLOGY DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH
IF ANY FOG DEVELOPING AND THE SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PREVENT MUCH OF A VISIBILITY REDUCTION. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING THEN TURN BACK TO THE
SOUTH AGAIN.

DURING THE AFTERNOON STORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. THESE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH WILL CAUSE REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM
THE THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS INCREASING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
INTO NW MN EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR KELO INTO SW MN WAS
DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS AS MIXING TO 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 20C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90. SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 800-700 MB CAPPING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY LATE
OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND FALLING HEIGHTS APPROACH.

TONIGHT...SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER LEVEL DIV AND ASSOCIATED 800-700 MB FGEN STRENGTHEN
OVER UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE STRONGER FORCING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL DEVELOP. WITH
30-40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA
THREAT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE MUCAPE IN THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE DIMINISHES. ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL...WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY THE SVR THREAT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF.
ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS PUSHED THE MARGINAL RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OVER WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA WILL BE EXITING THE CWA
NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
130KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SE HALF. MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA MON AFTERNOON...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING ALONG WITH TONIGHTS LOW-LEVEL FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND NORTHERN WI WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A TOUCH THERE. AFTER A VERY WARM
WEEKEND...MONDAY WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE H7 TO H8 FRONT NEVER TRULY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER JET STILL LINGERING NORTH
OF THE CWA MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE SE
HALF.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE PLAGUED THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS DOES PROVIDE
SOME HOPE THOUGH. DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. THE STALLED LOW-LEVEL FRONT WILL ACT AS A WEAK FORCING
MECHANISM WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH BY THIS TIME...SO NOTHING MORE THAN A LOWERING
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE SFC.

CONSIDERABLE FORCING UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF IS STILL
IN QUESTION...BUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
KEEPING POPS LIKELY INSTEAD OF CATEGORICAL AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO QUICKLY END PRECIP WED MORNING.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A QUICK EXIT OF THE LOW...SO AN EARLIER END
TO THE PRECIP PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE A DEPARTING SFC
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER STABLE NEAR SFC LYR WL RESULT IN LLWS
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL END
THE LLWS SOON AFT SUNRISE ON SUN MRNG AND RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BY
THE AFTN. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS VERY WARM AND THUS
RELATIVELY DRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THRU AT LEAST
THIS AFTN. SOME -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FNT
ARRIVING FM THE W MAY IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW AS EARLY AS THIS
EVNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS TOO LO TO GO FOR MORE THAN A
VCSH ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER NW
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KNOTS ON WED INTO EARLY THU AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 519 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM
THE THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS INCREASING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
INTO NW MN EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR KELO INTO SW MN WAS
DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS AS MIXING TO 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 20C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90. SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 800-700 MB CAPPING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY LATE
OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND FALLING HEIGHTS APPROACH.

TONIGHT...SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER LEVEL DIV AND ASSOCIATED 800-700 MB FGEN STRENGTHEN
OVER UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE STRONGER FORCING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL DEVELOP. WITH
30-40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA
THREAT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE MUCAPE IN THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE DIMINISHES. ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL...WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY THE SVR THREAT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF.
ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS PUSHED THE MARGINAL RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OVER WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA WILL BE EXITING THE CWA
NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
130KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SE HALF. MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA MON AFTERNOON...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING ALONG WITH TONIGHTS LOW-LEVEL FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND NORTHERN WI WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A TOUCH THERE. AFTER A VERY WARM
WEEKEND...MONDAY WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE H7 TO H8 FRONT NEVER TRULY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER JET STILL LINGERING NORTH
OF THE CWA MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE SE
HALF.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE PLAGUED THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS DOES PROVIDE
SOME HOPE THOUGH. DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. THE STALLED LOW-LEVEL FRONT WILL ACT AS A WEAK FORCING
MECHANISM WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH BY THIS TIME...SO NOTHING MORE THAN A LOWERING
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE SFC.

CONSIDERABLE FORCING UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF IS STILL
IN QUESTION...BUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
KEEPING POPS LIKELY INSTEAD OF CATEGORICAL AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO QUICKLY END PRECIP WED MORNING.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A QUICK EXIT OF THE LOW...SO AN EARLIER END
TO THE PRECIP PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE A DEPARTING SFC
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER STABLE NEAR SFC LYR WL RESULT IN LLWS
AT ALL 3 TAF SITES EARLY THIS MRNG. DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING WL END
THE LLWS SOON AFT SUNRISE ON SUN MRNG AND RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS BY
THE AFTN. SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS VERY WARM AND THUS
RELATIVELY DRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THRU AT LEAST
THIS AFTN. SOME -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FNT
ARRIVING FM THE W MAY IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW AS EARLY AS THIS
EVNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS TOO LO TO GO FOR MORE THAN A
VCSH ATTM.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT
AS HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATERS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
COULD SEE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG THROUGH THEN. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR
BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUE NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KNOTS
ON WED THROUGH THU AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA
WITH A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING BY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...07



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GAYLORD MI

 204 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...QUIET AND MILD OVERNIGHT...

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CONUS THIS EVENING
WITH AXIS OF >588 DM 500 MB HEIGHTS STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN UPPER JET HAS BEEN SHUNTED INTO THE
NRN PLAINS INTO SRN CANADA NORTH OF THE "HEAT DOME." AT THE
SFC...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOTED JUST NORTH OF THE US-CANADIAN
BORDER NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING THROUGH
CENTRAL ONTARIO AND COLD FRONT DOWN THROUGH THE PLAINS. SEVERAL
BATCHES OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNDERWAY ACROSS
ONTARIO ALONG THE WARM FRONT WITH SOME OF THE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
SPILLING INTO NRN MICHIGAN. EARLIER BUBBLY CU FIELD ACROSS NRN
LOWER MICHIGAN (AND VERY SPOTTY SHOWER WANNABES) HAS PRETTY MUCH
FADED WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS REMAINING DOWN AROUND TVC/CAD.

OVERNIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WILL
TRAVEL NORTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO BY MORNING WHILE SFC
COLD FRONT GETS STRETCHED OUT BACK INTO THE NRN PLAINS...WELL
NORTH OF THE STATE AND WHERE THE ACTIVE WEATHER WILL REMAIN. FOR
US...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME THICKER CIRRUS INVADE THE NRN PARTS
OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
IN THE U.P. MAINLY CLEAR TO THE SOUTH (HOPEFULLY). DON/T THINK
FOG WILL BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC
DEWPOINTS AND GOOD MIXING DURING THE DAY. THAT SAID...AN
INTERESTING NOTE...NAM AND HRRR SOLUTIONS BOTH SUGGEST AN
EXPANDING LOW CLOUD LAYER OFF THE LAKE INTO NW LOWER MICHIGAN
OVERNIGHT AS SW FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AND DRAGS HIGHER LOW LEVEL
DEWPOINT AIR OUT OF WISCONSIN UP INTO THE REGION. HAVE CAUTIOUSLY
IGNORED THAT IDEA FOR THE MOMENT...BUT WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS.
HERES HOPING I DON/T WAKE TOMORROW MORNING TO A SUNRISE SURPRISE
STRATUS DECK.

&&

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: A ROGUE EVENING SHOWER OR STORM (OR
TWO) STILL POSSIBLE...WITH ANY STORMS BEING VERY SLOW MOVERS.

ALL REMAINS RATHER QUIET AT THE MOMENT ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN...
WITH PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGING (590 DM HEIGHTS) FOLDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHILE LOW LEVEL RIDGING RESIDES ALL THROUGHOUT THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. OUR AIRMASS REMAINS A RATHER HOT ONE BY
NORTHERN MICHIGAN STANDARDS...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF 90 AS OF 19Z...WHILE DEW POINTS ARE A TOUCH MORE "COMFORTABLE"
DOWN IN THE 60S...THOUGH LOCALLY HIGHER RIGHT NEAR THE LAKE SHORES
WHERE WINDS HAVE TURNED ONSHORE. STRONG INLAND THERMAL TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT IS NOTED PER MESOANALYSIS...WITH A CONVERGENCE BULLSEYE
INCHING TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS IS TYPICAL ON VERY LIGHT WIND
REGIME DAYS. HAVE SEEN A DECENT FLARE UP OF CU WITHIN THE BETTER
HEATING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS AXIS...THOUGH WITH NO
NOTABLE RADAR RETURNS AS OF YET...COURTESY OF A CAP JUST UNDER 700MB
PER 12Z APX RAOB.

IN THEORY...WE STILL HAVE A SHOT AT A COUPLE SHOWERS/STORMS FIRING
OFF THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...AND INDEED THE
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO REFLECT THAT IDEA. AS MENTIONED
EARLIER...WITH BASICALLY NIL STEERING FLOW BELOW 500MB (SOMETHING
LIKE A WHOPPING 8 KNOTS!)...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FIRE WILL BOTH
BE SLOW MOVING WITH A LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT (SKINNY CAPE/HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS) AS WELL AS A PROLIFIC OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PRODUCER...WHICH IN TURN MAY TRY TO SET OFF A FEW ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE CELLS. SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...BUT DON`T FORESEE ANYTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED WORDING.

LOOKING RATHER QUIET FOR TONIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO FOLD
OVERHEAD...ALL WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW REGIME GRADUALLY
RESPONDS TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...DON`T FORESEE
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT GIVEN BETTER MIXING OF MOISTURE
TODAY...THOUGH WHERE WINDS DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET...SOME SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. STRONGER RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER 07Z SHOULD PUT THE KIBOSH ON THAT...WHILE ALSO HELPING
TRANSPORT A CURRENT PLUME OF LOWER CLOUDS OVER LAKE MICHIGAN NORTH
AND OUR OF OUR HAIR. LOWS OVERNIGHT MORE MILD THAN LAST...WITH
READINGS MAINLY STUCK IN THE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

STRONG SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS JUST SE OF MICHIGAN ON SUNDAY...AS
THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS LEANS SOUTHWARD INTO SRN LWR MICHIGAN. LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AND STRENGTHEN A BIT...PUSHING EVEN
WARMER AIR INTO MICHIGAN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT. 850 MB
TEMPS SOAR TO AROUND +22 C BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW
SPOTS REACH THE UPPER 90S IN ERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THANKS TO
DOWNSLOPING. FURTHER WARMING ALOFT WILL LIKELY CAP ANY POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WE MAY NOT EVEN SEE MUCH CU DEVELOPMENT ON
SUNDAY...MUCH LESS SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. SO...FOR THOSE WHO ARE
LOOKING FOR THAT QUINTESSENTIAL HOT AND SUNNY SUMMER DAY...SUNDAY IS
IT!

OUR CWA WILL LIKELY STAY PRECIP-FREE THRU SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE WX
BECOMES ACTIVE AGAIN AS AN UPSTREAM COOL FRONT LEANS INTO NW
SECTIONS OF OUR CWA OVERNIGHT. FRONT ITSELF WILL SLOW LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE BECOME NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL...
LIKELY STALLING OVER OUR AREA THRU MID WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES DEVELOP
ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND RIDE NE THRU MICHIGAN. CURRENTLY TOO FAR OUT
TO PROVIDE SPECIFIC TIMING ON EACH WAVE...AND CERTAINLY CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY. AT THIS
POINT...EXPECT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL POOL ALONG
THE FRONT...PROVIDING MUCH OF OUR CWA WILL INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THRU
MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS AND WAVES RIPPLE ALONG
IT. LOW/MID LEVEL COOLING ALONG THE FRONT WILL NOT ONLY INCREASE
INSTABILITY ALOFT...BUT WILL PROVIDE SOME PROGRESSIVE MODERATION OF
SURFACE TEMPS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS ON
MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S IN ERN UPR MICHIGAN TO THE LOW TO
MID 80S FOR MUCH OF NRN LWR MICHIGAN. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 70S THROUGHOUT OUR CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY
NIGHT-THURSDAY (PERHAPS STRONG-SEVERE LATE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT).

FAIRLY DECENT MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE AGREEMENT THAT A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDWEEK.
HOWEVER...THE ENVELOPE OF SMALL SCALE DETAILS BEGINS TO SPREAD AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY NIGHT. 15/12Z GFS IS CLEARLY THE MOST AMPLIFIED
WITH THE 15/12Z ECMWF/GEM LAGGING BEHIND IN TERMS OF OVERALL
STRENGTH AND TIMING. WILL ATTEMPT TO SOMEWHAT TAKE A BLEND OF THE
THREE...KNOWING FULL WELL THE DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE IN THE
COMING DAYS.

A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN UPPER/SOUTHERN
ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY DEEPENS OVER
THE PLAINS. DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...AN AMPLIFIED WAVE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED 999 MB SFC LOW BECOME CENTERED OVER EASTERN MN/WESTERN WI
BEFORE NEGATIVELY TILTING ALOFT AND SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
SOUTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY EVENING. AGAIN...WHILE THE ALL-IMPORTANT
TIMING REMAINS AN UNCERTAINTY...AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS NRN MICHIGAN LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH ROUGHLY 50-
60 KTS AT 500 MB...~700-1300 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND 30-40 KTS OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR PRIOR TO FROPA. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THERE`S A POTENTIAL
THAT MICHIGAN COULD ONCE AGAIN GET BACK IN ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
ACTION. NOTE SPC`S DAY 5 OUTLOOK WITH AN AREA FROM THE UPPER
PENINSULA/CANADA BORDER SOUTHWARD INTO ARKANSAS BEING HIGHLIGHTED
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. WITH ALL
THIS SAID AND THE OVERALL DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM LINING UP WELL ON
PAPER...NORTHERN MICHIGAN`S SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL CERTAINLY DEPEND
ON THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM (SEVERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MUCH LESS AMPLIFIED SOLUTION) AND OF COURSE
FROPA TIMING. DEFINITELY WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON OVER THE NEXT 4-5
DAYS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COULD SEE A BIT OF WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE/CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST NORTHWEST LOWER THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...ULTIMATELY RETURNING THE
REGION TO DRY WEATHER. LATE SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST PERHAPS BRINGING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA.
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...LOW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT
A COUPLE DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF 60 WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING
OUT IN THE MID-UPPER 70 (GENERALLY WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF THE 76-
77 DEGREE NORMALS FOR THE THIRD WEEK IN AUGUST).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...VFR CONDITIONS LARGELY ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...

SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUD WILL BE STREAMING ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS
OF NRN LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ALSO...INCREASING SW
FLOW TOWARD MORNING MIGHT RESULT IN SOME EXPANDING STRATUS INTO
PARTS OF NW LOWER MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT
HIGH...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SOME SCT LOWER CLOUDS IN THE TVC/MBL
TAFS.

ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY DURING THE MORNING
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH SCT HEATING OF THE DAY CLOUDS
DEVELOPING. WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY SUNDAY EVENING.


&&

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT DRIVES THROUGH THE LAKES LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ADVISORY LEVEL SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS INTO MONDAY WHILE WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE
NW THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT MAY STALL OUT
ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY REGION THROUGH TUESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE
VARIABLE WIND DIRECTIONS THERE. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS...BUT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE REAL GOOD.

A ROUND OF TWO OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER JUST ABOUT ALL THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THAT FRONT ARRIVES...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED INTO MID AND LATE WEEK. IN
ADDITION...THERE ARE INCREASING SIGNS THAT A FAIRLY POTENT STORM
SYSTEM MAY IMPACT NORTHERN MICHIGAN TOWARD MIDWEEK...WITH AT LEAST
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME GALE FORCE WINDS. STAY TUNED...

&&

.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     LMZ323-341-342-344>346.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ADAM
NEAR TERM...LAWRENCE
SHORT TERM...MLR
LONG TERM...GILLEN
AVIATION...ADAM
MARINE...SMD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTED IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
HOT AND HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S AS WELL...BUT TWM REACHED 100 AT 234 PM. CIRRUS WAS
FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CU IN NW
WI.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ND HAS SHOWN GLIMPSES THAT IT
IS FALLING APART. JUICY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT THE
INSTABILITY WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...PLUS THERE IS NO UPPER
FORCING AS THE FRONT REACHES NW MN BY 06Z. DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE NO RAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z. BY 12Z...MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT REACHING NE MN.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS DIMINISHING FOR ANY STORMS TO FIRE ON. HAVE
TRIED TO BLEND THE HIRES WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF/WEATHER.

ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO NW WI. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS STILL LIMITED. GREATEST MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND QPF AND USED A BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY DUE TO
THE SLOW FRONT MOVEMENT.  WE ENTER A QUIET PERIOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.

THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/LOW MOVING
FROM THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY...AND OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY.  THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...WITH THE
ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS.  IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TO THE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS TUESDAY-THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE KBRD
AREA...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...AND THE
MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA...WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  74  53  65 /  10  10  10  30
INL  49  69  45  71 /   0  10   0  10
BRD  58  75  54  70 /  10  10  10  40
HYR  60  74  51  71 /  60  20  10  40
ASX  60  73  52  69 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP/WEL




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

 1134 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER ILLINOIS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. LATEST RUNS
OF THE RAP AND HRRR DO NOT SUGGEST ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE CURRENTLY DISSIPATING
SO WILL GO WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. GOING LOWS STILL
LOOK GOOD.

BRITT

&&

.SHORT TERM:  (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

KEEPING AN EYE ON STORM OVER S IL BETWEEN K1H2 AND KRSV AS IT DRIFTS
SW, BUT BELIEVE IT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...BEFORE
IT REACHES OUR FAR E COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXERT ITS INFLUENCE OVER
THE REGION`S WEATHER TONIGHT, WITH LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTING ONLY A
VERY MODEST DECREASE IN ITS STRENGTH.  WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN AMS,
HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH PERSISTENCE FOR MOST ELEMENTS WITH A VERY
SUBTLE UPTICK IN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS.  THIS INCREASE IN MIXING MAY
TEND TO INHIBIT STEAM/RIVER FOG JUST A BIT, SO HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT
OF FORECAST FOR NOW.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MO ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER IN WESTERN OH
AND SOUTHEAST INDIANA SLIDES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THIS AREA 24HRS FROM
NOW.

OTHERWISE...FORECAST RELATIVELY UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE
WITH THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETUP COLLAPSING TO OUR
WEST...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM SUNDAY LINGERS INTO MONDAY
TO BE THE MAIN WX-MAKER...AND THEN A SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES LATE
MONDAY AND LINGERS INTO TUESDAY WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL WESTERLIES.  THE RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THRU ON WEDNESDAY.  WHILE THE DETAILS
REMAIN MURKY...THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT IF THE TIMING AND TRACK ARE
RIGHT...THIS WILL HAVE THE DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH THE TYPICAL AUGUST
THERMODYNAMICS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL.

LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HEADING INTO LATE NEXT WEEK BUT COULD
END UP BEING LOWER/MORE DRY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM SCOURS THE MOISTURE OUT ENOUGH.

OTHERWISE...SEASONABLE AUGUST TEMPS TO CONTINUE THRU MID-WEEK WITH A
BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM AND IMMEDIATELY AFTERWARD...
WITH A RECOVERY BACK TO NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND.

TES

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SOME FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY LATER ON TONIGHT FOR KSUS AND KCPS
WITH SOME HAZE POSSIBLE AT KCOU AND KSTL. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH FEW-SCT DIURNAL CU WITH
BASES AOA 4000 FEET AGL. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
OZARKS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING EXPECTED TO STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF
TERMINALS.


SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

COULD BE SOME HAZE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME SSE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING ALONG WITH CU DEVELOPING. ANY
STORMS WHICH FORM SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TERMINAL.

GOSSELIN

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

 255 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 935 PM SATURDAY...

ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN ONGOING IN TEH FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES BUT
OTHERWISE ALL OTHER CONVECTION HAS CEASED AT THIS TIME. LOOKING AT
THE SPC MESOANALYSIS FOR THE REGION...A LOT OF CIN HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BUT A BULLSEYE OF STILL VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES EXISTS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND MOST
LIKELY ACCOUNTS FOR MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL REMAINING IN
THE AREA. DESPITE THE RAP MODEL DEPICTION OF CONTINUOUS LIGHT
CONVECTION IN THE WEST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOUS...WOULD EXPECT
MOST IF NOT ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY TO CEASE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. EXPECT
CLOUD COVER TO LINGER IN THE WEST WHILE EASTERN AREAS SHOULD CLEAR
OUT. AS A RESULT...SOME FOG IS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN AREAS BUT LESS SO
IN THE WEST OUTSIDE OF AREAS AFFECTED BY PRIOR RAINFALL. LOWS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
CALM TO VERY LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SATURDAY...

DESPITE THEIR TYPICAL DIFFERENCES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OR
SO...WITH THE NAM SHOWING GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE GFS LESS...
BOTH SETS OF GUIDANCE SUPPORT GREATER MOISTURE OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST NEAR 1.5 INCHES
TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...LESS TOWARD KRWI WHERE K INDICES SUNDAY
REMAIN IN THE TEENS AT BEST. MUCAPE IS FORECAST ON THE GFS BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500J/KG OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
BARELY REGISTERING ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. THE SURFACE PATTERN
REMAINS SIMILAR TO TODAY..WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH A WEAK PIEDMONT
TROUGH. ALOFT...WITH BROAD RIDGING...WINDS ARE NOT VERY STRONG AT
ALL WITH ANY SHORTWAVE WEAK ALONG WITH DIFFLUENCE. PLAN TO FORECAST
BASICALLY PERSISTENCE...DIMINISHED CLOUDS FOR A TIME IN THE MORNING
FOLLOWED BY SOME AFTERNOON CU AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT KBUY TO NEAR KFAY...POSSIBLY
JUST A TOUCH FARTHER EAST THAN TODAY BASED ON THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CREEPING EAST REDUCING STABILITY. CONTINUE TO ANTICIPATE ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING ALTHOUGH ANY SHOWER
COULD LINGER A LITTLE LONGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE CAP AROUND
AND JUST ABOVE 700MB ON GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS BECOMES LESS SHARP IN ITS
ORIENTATION. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS WITHIN A DEGREE OR THREE OF 90...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT 65 TO 70.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 255 AM SUNDAY...

A RATHER WEAK MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHORT WAVE WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST THEN EAST ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY TIME FRAME. STILL SOME LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE WINDOW OF BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR POPS WITH ABOUT A 12 HOUR TIMING DIFFERENCE IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...POPS DURING THE FAVORABLE DIURNAL WINDOW ON
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE CHANCE RANGE WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO
HAMPER INSOLATION. HAVE LOWERED HIGHS A BIT...86 WEST TO 89 EAST...
AND WE MAY WIND UP ADJUSTING THEM DOWN FURTHER IN LATER FORECASTS
CONSIDERING THE HEAVY CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.

TRANSITION TO A CENTRAL CONUS TROF/EAST COAST RIDGE IN THE MID TO
LATE WEEK WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH PW/S ON THE
ORDER OF 2 INCHES IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW. FORCING MECHANISMS WILL BE
WEAK THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION
DURING MAX HEATING AS HIGHS REACH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WED AND THU.

CONFIDENCE DIMINISHES FURTHER TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE DAMPENING CENTRAL CONUS TROF WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. IT WILL SLOW AND REORIENT WITH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER VORT AXIS SHEARS OUT
WITH THE UPPER TROF LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.
THIS WILL INCREASE RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND PERHAPS SATURDAY AS WELL
AS WEAK IMPULSES IN THE PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE ALIGNED
MORE FAVORABLY WITH THE SURFACE FRONT. HIGHS FRI AND SAT AGAIN
MAINLY UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 745 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO DOMINATE AT ALL CENTRAL NC TERMINAL
FORECAST SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. VERY WEAK WINDS FROM THE
SURFACE ON UP THROUGH THE MID LEVELS COMBINED WITH LOWER-THAN-USUAL
MOISTURE AND A LACK OF STRONG WEATHER FEATURES WILL LEAD TO
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER. THERE IS HOWEVER A SMALL CHANCE OF A STRAY
STORM PASSING NEAR INT SUN AFTERNOON... AS WAS THE CASE EARLIER THIS
EVENING... AS STORMS FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS/FOOTHILLS AND DRIFT
TOWARD THE PIEDMONT. BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF MVFR FOG AT ANY TAF SITE
LATE TONIGHT... MAINLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN VARIABLE AT 5 KTS OR LESS.

LOOKING BEYOND 00Z MON (SUN EVENING)... VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD HOLD
INTO MONDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN... ALTHOUGH THE RISK OF
SUB-VFR FOG WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER LATE SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON
MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG WITH A GROWING RISK OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS STARTING MON NIGHT... MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... LASTING AT LEAST INTO THU. -GIH

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...HARTFIELD



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING
THE MU CAPE DROPPING DOWN TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES. THE 16.05Z RAP DOES SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. THE 16.06Z HRRR SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN IN
CONCERT WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WITH THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE POSITIVE TILT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CONVECTION
REMAINING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT. THE HI-RES MESO MODELS ALL SHOW THIS WEAKENING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES WITH A SUGGESTION THAT THE LINE COULD TOTALLY
DISSIPATE. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE FORCING FROM
THE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PULLS OUT INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE LINE
TO BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND WITH WEAKENING CAPE AND
FRONTOGENESIS COULD EASILY SEE THE LINE BREAKING UP. THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKENING THERMODYNAMICS WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT FROM THE LOW LEVEL
JET. THESE MODELS THEN HOLD THE LINE OF CONVECTION TOGETHER
BRINGING THE BAND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO HONOR THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES JUST A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK
PRETTY SLIM AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE THE LACK OF FORCING AS THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS AND THE FRONTOGENESIS GETS A LITTLE
STRONGER IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS THE FRONT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PLAN TO
STAY WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A SLOWLY
WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE 16.00Z MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF STALL THE FRONT OUT
MONDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO ILLINOIS. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
HAVE STAYED WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING A
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF THEN INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS PULLS IT BACK INTO
THE AREA AS IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW AND MOVES THIS UP THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT FROM THE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS WAVE IN AND SUGGEST
IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST WITH IT. FOR NOW...THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE TOO
MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS ALL SHOW THE FORCING INCREASING AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THESE DIFFERENCES DO
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SCENARIO...THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WHILE THE GFS WOULD BRING THIS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. PLAN TO
TREND TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET ONE AT THIS POINT AS THE
NAM AND ECMWF DO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE
NAM KEEPING IT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS UP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE FORCING FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH THE TRENDS IN THE ECMWF
AND GFS OF THIS PULLING AWAY MUCH QUICKER AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED THE MODEL CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WENT DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST AT KLSE/KRST OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE OF MID-HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH APPROACHING
SURFACE TROUGH...BUT ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 3000 FT
AGL. INTRODUCED VCTS/CB AT KRST AT 17.03Z...BUT TIMING OF SUNDAY
NIGHT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO BE FINE-TUNED WITH LATER FORECASTS.
SOME SOUTHERLY-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE
AT BOTH TAF SITES LATE SUNDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.


&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

 420 AM MST SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VERY HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TODAY THEN DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SEVERAL DEGREES DURING THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THIS WEEK. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN
OCCUR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DEPICTED SCATTERED 35-55 DBZ ECHOES
GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO AREA WWD ACROSS THE TOHONO
O`ODHAM...AND SWD ACROSS ERN SANTA CRUZ/SWRN COCHISE COUNTIES AT
11Z. MOST RAIN AMOUNTS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS SINCE LAST EVENING HAVE
BEEN LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...A FEW GAUGES ON THE
CATALINA MOUNTAINS NE OF TUCSON HAVE RECORDED BETWEEN ONE HALF OF AN
INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAINFALL.

THE 16/06Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM AND THE 16/10Z HRRR DEPICT THAT THE
BULK OF THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL END AROUND 14Z-16Z. SHOWERS/TSTMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE THEN PROGGED TO MOVE SWWD MAINLY
ACROSS ERN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING GENERALLY FROM TUCSON EWD TO THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/
TSTMS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF SE ARIZONA.
IF THE 16/06Z UNIV OF AZ WRF-NAM IS REALITY...AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED
ABOUT THE PROSPECT FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR
BEGINNING AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...INCLUDING
THE TUCSON METRO AREA...AND CONTINUING INTO DAYBREAK MON.

16/00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS
IN DEPICTING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO BECOME CENTERED OVER SRN
CALIFORNIA MON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE
NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. A DRYING TREND SHOULD COMMENCE MON AS THE FLOW
ALOFT BECOMES INCREASINGLY NWLY. HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD MON AND MON EVENING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR AREA-WIDE TUE-WED IN RESPONSE TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING CENTERED NEAR THE SRN CALIFORNIA COAST.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO EXISTS THUR AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE WLY.
HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY INCREASED LOWER-LEVEL MOISTURE JUSTIFIES A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS THUR AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF
TUCSON. THEREAFTER...THE GFS WAS SOMEWHAT MORE ROBUST VERSUS THE
ECMWF WITH THE PROSPECT FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI-SAT. THERE APPEARS TO
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM
TUCSON EAST TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER FRI-SAT. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CONTINUE FRI-SAT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY.

THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM
MST THIS EVENING FOR MUCH OF PIMA COUNTY...INCLUDING THE TUCSON
METRO AREA...AND FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL
THEN MODERATE AN AVERAGE OF 3 DEGS F OR SO MON-TUE FOLLOWED BY NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS WED. THEREAFTER...A DEGREE-OR-TWO
OF ADDITIONAL DAILY COOLING IS ON TAP THUR-SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 17/12Z.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 KTS MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER TSRA.
OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND
SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE EAST
OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LESS COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL THEN OCCUR MONDAY FOLLOWED BY DRY CONDITIONS AREA-WIDE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN MAINLY
FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH BY FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN A SLOW MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL PREVAIL MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MST THIS EVENING
    FOR AZZ501-502-504-505.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

 1010 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...THE MORNING CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS DEEP S/SE FLOW OVER THE
AREA...AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS WITH 2.11 INCHES PRECIP WATER. A LARGE
AREA OF CONVECTION OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY HAS PUSHED ONSHORE WITH
SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES EVEN ON LAND. THIS IS UNUSUAL SO EARLY IN THE
MORNING AND INDICATES SOME SUPPORT ALOFT. INDEED...A LITTLE
INVESTIGATION REVEALS VORT ENERGY IN THE 900-700MB LAYER LIFTING
NORTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING SHOWN BY RAP ANALYSIS. THE FOCUS
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES INITIALLY
SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR THIS AFTN. THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH FAIRLY
RAPIDLY INLAND IN E/SE FLOW PUSHED BY OUTFLOW FROM THE EARLY
CONVECTION. HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE BUT LOWERED COASTAL VOLUSIA TO SCATTERED COVERAGE.
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS. GUSTY WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VERY MOIST ATMOS REQUIRES PREVAILING VCSH/VCTS AT
COASTAL SITES THIS MORNING SHIFTING TO THE INTERIOR BY AFTN WITH
TEMPO GROUPS IN THE MID TO LATE AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT COASTAL WATERS FORECAST.
TODAY/TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ONLY STRONG ENOUGH TO YIELD
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET NEARSHORE
AND 2 TO 3 FEET OFFSHORE. BECAUSE OF FETCH AND DURATION FACTORS MAY
SEE A SMALL LONG PERIOD SWELL COMPONENT SNEAKING INTO THE COMBINE
SEA HEIGHT MON/TUE. MAJOR IMPACT WOULD BE TO RIP CURRENT STRENGTH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  88  75 /  60  30  70  30
MCO  91  75  91  75 /  70  30  60  30
MLB  89  76  89  76 /  60  30  50  20
VRB  89  74  88  74 /  50  30  40  20
LEE  90  76  90  77 /  70  30  70  30
SFB  89  74  90  75 /  70  30  60  30
ORL  90  75  90  76 /  70  30  60  30
FPR  89  75  89  75 /  50  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/BRAGAW



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

 948 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BUT WILL RETAIN OVERALL CONTROL THROUGH
MIDWEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...ATTACHING TO
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS STAGNANT...SO OVERALL EXPECT SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO SATURDAY. ANOTHER DAY OF LIGHT RETURN FLOW WILL
RESULT IN DEW POINTS AND TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER. MAY SEE A
FEW MORE 90F READINGS. BASED ON LTST LAMP AND YDA RSLTS...MADE A
CPL MINOR MODIFICATIONS.

OTHER THAN THE TROUGH AXIS AND TRRN...THERE WILL NOT BE A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR CONVECTION. A MODIFIED 12Z RAOB REVELS NO SHEAR AND
ONLY MINIMAL INSTBY. HRRR ATTEMPTING TO DVLP SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE
BLURDG TAFTN. RAP AND LWX WRF-NMM12G SUGGESTING THE SAME THING BUT
IN A MUCH MORE MUTED VERSION. MEANWHILE...WRF-ARW4 THINKING ITLL
BE DRY. OPTED TO NOT ADJUST CURRENT FCST. BELIEVE THERE WL BE A
FEW SHRA/TSRA IN THE WRN CWFA...BUT DO NOT HV MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
PINPOINTING WHEN OR WHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ANY CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE AIRMASS...COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. LOWS WILL BE
SIMILAR WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE 60S...AND LOWER 70S IN THE
URBAN AREAS.

ON MONDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING INCHES A BIT TO THE EAST.
ALOFT...THE MEAN RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER EASTERN NOAM...BUT
THE HEIGHT WEAKNESS REMAINS LOCALLY...WITH A POSSIBLE CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPING OFFSHORE. MODEL QPF FIELDS ARE A BIT MORE ROBUST OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAN TODAY. WHILE THERE IS A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
RETURN...OVERALL INSTBY LOOKS WEAKER WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...AND THERE COULD BE RIDGING BETWEEN THE TWO CLOSED LOWS.
CONFINED POPS FARTHER WEST THAN TODAY...WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES INCHING UP...EXPECT MORE
AREAS INTO THE LOWER 90S. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S THOUGH...SO HEAT INDICES WILL NOT BE MUCH HIGHER THAN THE AIR
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
GFS...ECMWF AND GGEM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM WITH THE MAJOR FEATURES. ALL THREE MODELS DEPICT SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO GRADUALLY SLIDE EASTWARD MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO BE LOCATED JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA MONDAY EVENING...WHICH WILL SLIDE EAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A SHORTWAVE WITH MINIMAL IF ANY
SURFACE REFLECTION SLIDES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AS WE SIT BETWEEN
A RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH AND A DEEP TROUGH TO THE WEST. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH SAID DEEP TROUGH THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVES INTO THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BEFORE STALLING JUST SOUTH OF US ON SATURDAY...THOUGH MOST
OF THE ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH BYPASSES US TO THE NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

BASED ON THE GENERAL PATTERN...EXPECT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR TUESDAY WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE...PERHAPS
SOME MAINLY TERRAIN CONVECTION WEDNESDAY...AND THEN BETTER CHANCE
LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND THEN MOVES
INTO THE AREA. WHILE TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN WARM...THEY
DON`T LOOK QUITE AS WARM AS PREVIOUSLY...AND THE INCREASED RISK OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS TUESDAY COMBINED WITH POTENTIAL OF LINGERING
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY PREVENT EXCESSIVE HEAT. DEW POINTS
ALSO DON`T LOOK EXCESSIVE WITH READINGS STARTING IN THE MID 60S
MONDAY EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY RISE TO NEAR 70 BY THURSDAY...WHICH
IS HUMID BUT NOT UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST. LOWS WILL BE CREEPING UP WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE...WITH LOWER 70S BECOMING
COMMON LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. BAY BREEZE WL AFFECT MTN...
AND MAY REACH BWI. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD STAY WEST OF THE
TERMINALS. WITH STAGNANT PATTERN...FOG COULD BE A POSSIBILITY
AGAIN TONIGHT. COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE UNCERTAIN THOUGH...BUT LIKELY
NOT IN METROS. FOR MONDAY...VFR AND LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED.

OVERALL VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SUB-VFR
IS IN SHOWER/T-STORMS...WITH BEST CHANCE OF THOSE BEING THURSDAY-
FRIDAY. WINDS GENERALLY SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS...POSSIBLY CLOSER TO
15 KNOTS BY THURSDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
OFFSHORE MONDAY. PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE S OR
SE...ALTHOUGH WITH WEAK PRESSURE PATTERNS...LOCALIZED LAND
CIRCULATIONS COULD DEVELOP. SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-10 KT...POSSIBLY TO
15 KT AT TIMES OVER THE BAY.

WINDS MAY APPROACH SCA LEVELS AS BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS EAST THROUGH
THE WEEK. BEST CHANCE IS THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO A CONCERN...WITH BEST CHANCE OF
THEM BEING THURSDAY.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCM
NEAR TERM...ADS/HTS
SHORT TERM...ADS
LONG TERM...RCM
AVIATION...ADS/RCM/HTS
MARINE...ADS/RCM




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 741 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM
THE THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS INCREASING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
INTO NW MN EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR KELO INTO SW MN WAS
DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS AS MIXING TO 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 20C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90. SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 800-700 MB CAPPING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY LATE
OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND FALLING HEIGHTS APPROACH.

TONIGHT...SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER LEVEL DIV AND ASSOCIATED 800-700 MB FGEN STRENGTHEN
OVER UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE STRONGER FORCING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL DEVELOP. WITH
30-40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA
THREAT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE MUCAPE IN THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE DIMINISHES. ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL...WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY THE SVR THREAT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF.
ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS PUSHED THE MARGINAL RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OVER WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA WILL BE EXITING THE CWA
NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
130KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SE HALF. MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA MON AFTERNOON...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING ALONG WITH TONIGHTS LOW-LEVEL FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND NORTHERN WI WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A TOUCH THERE. AFTER A VERY WARM
WEEKEND...MONDAY WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE H7 TO H8 FRONT NEVER TRULY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER JET STILL LINGERING NORTH
OF THE CWA MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE SE
HALF.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE PLAGUED THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS DOES PROVIDE
SOME HOPE THOUGH. DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. THE STALLED LOW-LEVEL FRONT WILL ACT AS A WEAK FORCING
MECHANISM WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH BY THIS TIME...SO NOTHING MORE THAN A LOWERING
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE SFC.

CONSIDERABLE FORCING UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF IS STILL
IN QUESTION...BUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
KEEPING POPS LIKELY INSTEAD OF CATEGORICAL AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO QUICKLY END PRECIP WED MORNING.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A QUICK EXIT OF THE LOW...SO AN EARLIER END
TO THE PRECIP PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE A DEPARTING SFC
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS VERY WARM AND THUS RELATIVELY
DRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
-SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM
THE W MAY IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW AS EARLY AS THIS EVNG...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS TOO LO TO GO FOR MORE THAN A VCSH ATTM.
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY SOME
ISOLD TSRA. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO MVFR AT IWD WITH INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER NW
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KNOTS ON WED INTO EARLY THU AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED

NWS DULUTH MN

 931 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS
WILL ROLL BACK IN. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CKC TO HZX AT
14Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WEST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND...BUT MUCIN IS KEEPING ANY
STORMS FROM FIRING. DID INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING
IN NW WI AS RAIN IS ATTEMPTING TO GET GOING. ADDED SOME POPS FOR
THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MUCIN...BUT
NOT MUCH CAPE ATTM EITHER. HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM
INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN MN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS MEASURED AT 45 KTS AT 3 K FEET AS DEPICTED ON KDLH VAD WIND
PROFILE. THIS JET WAS PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND HELPING FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED
IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH FARTHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT...BUT WITH THE LINGER CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS...STORMS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP. BY NOON THE FRONT SHOULD
BE FROM ABOUT ELY TO BRAINERD...EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY STORMS EAST
OF THE FRONT...WHERE A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL FORCING AND AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM MORE STORMS. WITH THE FRONT PASSING INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AT THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL MEAN SOME STRONG STORMS.
WITH WIND SHEAR LACKING ...NORTHWESTERN WI IS IN MARGINAL SEVERE
CATEGORY. THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL AS UVM IS AIDED THE IN HIGH
CAPE ATMOSPHERE OF OVER 3000 J/KG BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE.THE
FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR BROUGHT WITH
THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY. COLD AIR BROUGHT T
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING 8H TEMPS DOWN TO 6 ABOVE IN
NORTHERN MN. THIS IS MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE THE 20C MEASURED
DURING THE 00Z RADIOSONDE DATA AT INL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND DEFINED BY AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THIS
REGIME WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND REPLACE BY AN ACTIVE/WET PERIOD LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
WILL DIG EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS
TIME AND LINK UP WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SFC LOW DEVELOPS A SURGE OF MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NWD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE...BUT
MUCH MORE RICH WITH MOISTURE. PWATS OVER AN INCH ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH
THE GFS BEING THE MOST NWD...TAKING THE LOW INTO NRN WI...AND THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE NAM OUTPUT HAS
THE MOST SLY TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE MIDDLE. THE
RESULTING RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...SO WILL KEEP MONITORING THE TRENDS OF MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMTS AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME IN
APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMTS COULD END UP ACROSS NRN WI.

AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES A PUSH
OF COOL AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND LATE THURSDAY WILL BE DRYING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINE
WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THE GENERALLY OUTLOOK IS DRY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODEST E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA ON-GOING
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS TUE AND WED WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE KBRD
AREA...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...AND THE
MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA...WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE KBRD
AREA...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...AND THE
MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA...WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  59  73  53 /  10  10  10  10
INL  76  49  68  43 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  81  58  73  52 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  83  60  73  51 /  40  60  20  10
ASX  84  60  72  53 /  30  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...TENTINGER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 938 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST FIRES INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO 9 MI AT
GCC AND 8 MI AT RAP UNDER AREAS OF SMOKE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER WAVE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SD...WITH THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM WY. ADJUSTED SKY AND POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/SMOKY SKIES...TEMPS
ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE FAR SW CONUS WITH BROAD
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COUPLE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OVER NORTHWEST SD...AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

TODAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MOST
AREAS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS MORNING
AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO MONTANA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE 50S.

ON MONDAY...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH EARLY ESTIMATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
NORTHEAST WYOMING...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING DURING FIRST HALF OF DAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS WEAKER WAVE DROPS DOWN BACK SIDE OF TROF. WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALONG
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF HAS COMPACT UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...WHILE GFS HAS PROGRESSIVE/FLAT TROF THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

ISOLD MVFR CIG/VSBY COULD OCCUR WITH ANY SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 941 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
Forecast has been updated to include possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, across
the area roughly southwest of a line from Anson to Coleman to
San Saba. Water loop shows drier air in the mid/upper levels
impinging on our eastern counties. If this drier air does not
overspread our area and remains confined to our eastern counties,
the possibility of isolated shower/thunderstorm development cannot
be ruled out. The HRRR and NAM12 support this possibility. Have
updated sky condition grids for slightly increased cloud cover.
Will continue to monitor and update the forecast as needed today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A broad upper level high will be centered over the Desert Southwest
today and will move further west over the northern Baja. Through
tonight, the forecast area will be situated between the upper high
to our west and an  inverted upper trough stretching from the Texas
Gulf coast northeast over the lower Mississippi Valley to our east.
The flow aloft will therefore remain north-northeasterly with drier
air advecting into the area. As a result, chances of any
shower/thunderstorm development will be remote. Afternoon highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s with morning lows tomorrow in the lower
70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Saturday)
West Central Texas will remain on the eastern side of a ridge of
high pressure, centered over southern California and northern Baja,
through Monday evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF prog a strong shortwave
trough/80-90kt polar jet max to dive southeast into the Central
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing a cold front to slide
south into the region on Wednesday.

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS were similar. For now, am splitting the
difference between the models. This upper trough and front should
give the eastern sections of WC TX the best chance for rain and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night. Cooler temperatures
are on tap for Wednesday and Thursday for much of the area. Still
too much uncertainty to pin point exact locations for rain.
Precipitable water values are progged to be in excess of 1.5
inches just ahead of the front with good low level convergence at
850 MB.

After the front moves across the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night, an upper level high pressure system is progged to build
into the area by the latter part of the week, causing temperatures
to rebound into the mid and upper 90s.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  73  95  75 /   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Junction  97  71  94  72 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING
THE MU CAPE DROPPING DOWN TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES. THE 16.05Z RAP DOES SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. THE 16.06Z HRRR SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN IN
CONCERT WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WITH THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE POSITIVE TILT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CONVECTION
REMAINING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT. THE HI-RES MESO MODELS ALL SHOW THIS WEAKENING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES WITH A SUGGESTION THAT THE LINE COULD TOTALLY
DISSIPATE. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE FORCING FROM
THE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PULLS OUT INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE LINE
TO BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND WITH WEAKENING CAPE AND
FRONTOGENESIS COULD EASILY SEE THE LINE BREAKING UP. THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKENING THERMODYNAMICS WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT FROM THE LOW LEVEL
JET. THESE MODELS THEN HOLD THE LINE OF CONVECTION TOGETHER
BRINGING THE BAND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO HONOR THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES JUST A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK
PRETTY SLIM AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE THE LACK OF FORCING AS THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS AND THE FRONTOGENESIS GETS A LITTLE
STRONGER IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS THE FRONT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PLAN TO
STAY WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A SLOWLY
WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE 16.00Z MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF STALL THE FRONT OUT
MONDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO ILLINOIS. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
HAVE STAYED WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING A
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF THEN INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS PULLS IT BACK INTO
THE AREA AS IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW AND MOVES THIS UP THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT FROM THE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS WAVE IN AND SUGGEST
IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST WITH IT. FOR NOW...THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE TOO
MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS ALL SHOW THE FORCING INCREASING AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THESE DIFFERENCES DO
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SCENARIO...THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WHILE THE GFS WOULD BRING THIS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. PLAN TO
TREND TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET ONE AT THIS POINT AS THE
NAM AND ECMWF DO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE
NAM KEEPING IT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS UP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE FORCING FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH THE TRENDS IN THE ECMWF
AND GFS OF THIS PULLING AWAY MUCH QUICKER AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED THE MODEL CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WENT DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...APPROACHING
THE TAF SITES LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS
TO PUSH INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AROUND 03Z...IMPACTING KRST. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO IMPACT KLSE ALSO...STARTING AROUND 07Z.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z.
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO IFR WITH VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO 2SM AT
TIMES IN BR AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...WETENKAMP




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 252 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLUMES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE
PACIFIC ARE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS IN
PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVER GOODLAND AND NORTON KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT TRENDS IN ARW/NMM HAVE BEEN
TO SHIFT MOST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO THE SOUTH ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. CURRENTLY THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW
ALOFT AND OTHER GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ORIGINATING FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THIS. EITHER WAY...DEEP
MOIST AIR MASS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. STRONGEST CAPE
AXIS IF FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH THERE
IS ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDING DRY ADIABATIC
PROFILES BELOW 700MB COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS MIXING RATIOS INCREASE
BELOW 700MB THIS EVENING THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES 1.2-1.6
WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT APPROACHING 1.7-1.8 WHICH IS
WELL WITHIN 99TH PERCENTILE OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.
WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING I AM COMFORTABLE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IF
ARW/NMM SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA TO WATCH.

MONDAY...WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD ON TIMING. THIS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE/TIMING OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ARW/NMM SHOW
A MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOIST LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER IF WE CONTINUE TO
SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALL...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT CONTINUING THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING AS BETTER INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO BE
AHEAD OF FRONT. AS WITH TODAY...THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PACKAGE...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY...BRINGING AN END TO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND A TEMPORARY PARDON FROM THE WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT RETURNS BEHIND TUESDAY`S SYSTEM. WITH
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS
ANTICIPATED MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. ACTIVE WEATHER
IS FORECAST AS A LARGE NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH KICKS OUT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION MONDAY EVENING DEPENDING ON THE FRONT
LOCATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS. ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT MAY BE HIGHER MONDAY EVENING AS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN
COLORADO SHOULD BE MOVING IN. THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS MENTIONED IN THE DAY 2
STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLOOK...SURFACE VORTICITY/HELICITY
MAXIMIZED IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR A TORNADO TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISN`T AS HIGH AS HIGHER
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR COLD POOL
DEVELOPMENT...HIGHLIGHTING A HIGHER THREAT OF MCS DEVELOPMENT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT. IN TERMS OF FLASH FLOODING...A
THREAT WILL STILL EXIST ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAINS ARE RECEIVED
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FALL AS THE FRONT DOES FORCE SOME
MOISTURE SOUTH SO WE NO LONGER EXPECT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEARING THE 99TH PERCENTILE. STORM MOVEMENT REMAINS QUITE SLOW IN
TERMS OF STEERING WINDS ALOFT SO COLD POOL FORMATION/MOVEMENT SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY PERSIST
AND ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY EVENING IN
LATER FORECAST PACKAGES.

ON TUESDAY...THE FRONT SHOULD FINALLY SLIDE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE
REGION...RESTRICTING HIGHEST INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND
PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN
THIS COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SOUTH AND THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TIME FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS WOULD MEAN SEVERE WEATHER
IS POSSIBLE BUT UNLIKELY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL PERTURBATIONS
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE MAIN FORCING AND WITH SOME
INSTABILITY REMAINING IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT...THERE SHOULD
BE ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY REMAINS IN DOUBT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
COVERAGE BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
IFR CIGS AT KMCK 10-14Z...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TIED TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001>003-013-014.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GOODLAND KS

 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. PLUMES OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ORIGINATING IN THE
PACIFIC ARE ROTATING AROUND THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
LARGE SCALE RIDGE INTO THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW WEAKER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE JUST TO
THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR CWA. AT THE SURFACE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO
OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AXIS IS IN
PLACE FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO OVER GOODLAND AND NORTON KANSAS.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD INITIATE
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG FRONT AND SURFACE TROUGH WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ROTATE ACROSS THE REGION. RECENT TRENDS IN ARW/NMM HAVE BEEN
TO SHIFT MOST ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TO THE SOUTH ROUGHLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. CURRENTLY THE ORIENTATION OF FLOW
ALOFT AND OTHER GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS
ORIGINATING FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST OF THIS. EITHER WAY...DEEP
MOIST AIR MASS AND DECENT INSTABILITY AHEAD OF FRONT WILL SUPPORT
ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF CWA TRANSITIONING EASTWARD. STRONGEST CAPE
AXIS IF FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE INDICATED...THOUGH THERE
IS ENOUGH ELEVATED CAPE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER POTENTIAL FOR
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DCAPE 1000-1500 J/KG COINCIDING DRY ADIABATIC
PROFILES BELOW 700MB COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH AS MIXING RATIOS INCREASE
BELOW 700MB THIS EVENING THIS THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH.

REGARDING FLASH FLOOD WATCH...ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWAT VALUES 1.2-1.6
WILL ONLY INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT APPROACHING 1.7-1.8 WHICH IS
WELL WITHIN 99TH PERCENTILE OR 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS FROM NORMAL.
WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND POSSIBILITY FOR
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING I AM COMFORTABLE WITH FLASH FLOOD WATCH. IF
ARW/NMM SOLUTION PANS OUT THEN WE MAY NEED TO CONSIDER ADDING
SOUTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA TO WATCH.

MONDAY...WHILE FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD OCCUR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
MONDAY...GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A LOT OF SPREAD ON TIMING. THIS LOWERS
CONFIDENCE/TIMING OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ARW/NMM SHOW
A MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT MONDAY
MORNING...THOUGH OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING PREDOMINANTLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. DEEP MOIST LAYER
REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WITH POTENTIAL FOR OVERRUNNING ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTER IF WE CONTINUE TO
SEE WEAK HEIGHT FALL...WHICH COULD ALSO RESULT CONTINUING THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON FRONTAL POSITION/TIMING AS BETTER INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO BE
AHEAD OF FRONT. AS WITH TODAY...THREATS WOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG/SOUTH OF FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS SHOWING TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WEDNESDAY AT 12Z FROM THE
TROUGH MOVING EAST OUT OF THE CWA. AFTER...THINGS WILL DRY OUT AND
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME ZONAL OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE US.
FRIDAY NIGHT IS INDICATING SOME LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP. THERE IS AN
INFLOW OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AS WELL AS
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WEAK 700MB SHORTWAVES. HIGH PRESSURE IS
ALSO DOMINATING OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY...REACHING ONLY INTO THE 70S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
RETURN BACK TO NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...INCREASING INTO THE
80S AND 90S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD. BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE DURING THE EVENING AS A SLOW MOVING CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN
COVERAGE BEFORE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST ALONG A COLD FRONT MONDAY. SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
IFR CIGS AT KMCK 10-14Z...HOWEVER THIS APPEARS TO BE MORE LIKELY
TIED TO FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH MAY NOT BE UNTIL AFTER THE CURRENT
TAF PERIOD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KSZ001>003-013-014.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

 212 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 518 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM
THE SW CONUS THROUGH THE SRN GREAT LAKES RESULTING IN WSW FLOW FROM
THE THE CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH THE NRN LAKES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS
MOVING THROUGH CNTRL MANITOBA. AT THE SFC...SW FLOW WAS INCREASING
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE NRN LAKES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
INTO NW MN EXTENDING FROM LOW PRES OVER NW ONTARIO. A LINE OF
SHRA/TSRA AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NEAR KELO INTO SW MN WAS
DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE AXIS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY.

TODAY...EXPECT CONTINUED VERY WARM CONDITIONS AS MIXING TO 850 MB
TEMPS AROUND 20C SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR 90. SW DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPMENT OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BRING ADDITIONAL WARMING TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE SHORE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT 800-700 MB CAPPING WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING EXCEPT POSSIBLY LATE
OVER THE WEST AS THE FRONT AND FALLING HEIGHTS APPROACH.

TONIGHT...SOME SHRA/TSRA MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
INTO UPPER MICHIGAN DURING THE EVENING. HOWEVER...COVERAGE WILL BE
LIMITED WITH ONLY WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONV
ALONG THE FRONT. EXPECT GREATER POTENTIAL FOR POST-FRONTAL PCPN
OVERNIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO AND RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER LEVEL DIV AND ASSOCIATED 800-700 MB FGEN STRENGTHEN
OVER UPPER MI. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE STRONGER FORCING AND WHERE THE HEAVIEST PCPN WILL DEVELOP. WITH
30-40 KNOT 0-6KM SHEAR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED STRONG/SEVERE TSRA
THREAT...MAINLY DURING THE EVENING BEFORE THE MUCAPE IN THE 1K-2K
J/KG RANGE DIMINISHES. ALTHOUGH SOME STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS MAY
STILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THAT COULD PRODUCE SOME HAIL...WITH
WEAKENING INSTABILITY THE SVR THREAT SHOULD ALSO TAPER OFF.
ACCORDINGLY...SPC HAS PUSHED THE MARGINAL RISK FARTHER TO THE SOUTH
OVER WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITHIN BROAD MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF CANADA WILL BE EXITING THE CWA
NEAR THE START OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF A
130KT UPPER JET STREAK WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CWA. THIS WILL BE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE LIKELY POPS THROUGH
MOST OF MONDAY MORNING FOR THE SE HALF. MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL SLOWLY
APPROACH THE WESTERN CWA MON AFTERNOON...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING ALONG WITH TONIGHTS LOW-LEVEL FRONT BEGINNING TO STALL OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA AND NORTHERN WI WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE SE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
THUS INCREASED POPS A TOUCH THERE. AFTER A VERY WARM
WEEKEND...MONDAY WILL FEEL RATHER COOL AS TEMPS STRUGGLE TO REACH
THE 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLOUDY SKIES AND NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE H7 TO H8 FRONT NEVER TRULY CLEARS THE SOUTHERN CWA DURING THE
NIGHT. THIS...AND INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER JET STILL LINGERING NORTH
OF THE CWA MAY PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THE SE
HALF.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL INCONSISTENCIES HAVE PLAGUED THIS
PERIOD FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW. THE LATEST SUITE OF MODELS DOES PROVIDE
SOME HOPE THOUGH. DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. THE STALLED LOW-LEVEL FRONT WILL ACT AS A WEAK FORCING
MECHANISM WITH SUBTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE RETURN SPREADING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR WILL HAVE INFILTRATED THE
CWA FROM THE NORTH BY THIS TIME...SO NOTHING MORE THAN A LOWERING
CLOUD DECK IS EXPECTED IN THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. BY LATE
AFTERNOON...SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE SFC.

CONSIDERABLE FORCING UNDER THE LEFT-EXIT OF AN UPPER JET STREAK AND
Q-VECTOR CONV AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST QPF IS STILL
IN QUESTION...BUT AN INCH OF RAINFALL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA
WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR
KEEPING POPS LIKELY INSTEAD OF CATEGORICAL AT THIS POINT IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A DRY SLOT TO QUICKLY END PRECIP WED MORNING.

AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS...MOIST LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND THE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS IS ADVERTISING A QUICK EXIT OF THE LOW...SO AN EARLIER END
TO THE PRECIP PRIOR TO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING ABOVE A DEPARTING SFC
HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER MANITOBA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY LATE
SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA DURING THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 212 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SINCE THE INCOMING AIRMASS IS VERY WARM AND THUS RELATIVELY
DRY...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME -SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING FROM THE W MAY IMPACT MAINLY IWD AND SAW AS EARLY AS THIS
EVNG...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING IS TOO LOW TO GO FOR MORE THAN A
VCSH ATTM. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND MON
MORNING FOR SAW AND POSSIBLY SOME ISOLD TSRA.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 524 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH AND VEER NW
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PATCHY FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT AS HUMID AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER WATERS
OF THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL STAY AT OR BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGH TUE
NIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO UP TO 30 KNOTS ON WED INTO EARLY THU AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA WITH A STRONGER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DULUTH MN

 105 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

REFINED THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY IS FORMING OVER THE WESTERN EDGE
OF THE REGION IN AN AREA OF 700-400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION AND DECREASING MUCIN. MAINTAINED THE MENTION ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MUCAPE IS NEAR 1000 J/KG...BUT MUCIN IS STILL
HANGING TOUGH. INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION AS
CLOUDS ARE STREAMING IN FROM THE SW. LEFT MAX TEMPS AS IS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS
WILL ROLL BACK IN. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CKC TO HZX AT
14Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WEST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND...BUT MUCIN IS KEEPING ANY
STORMS FROM FIRING. DID INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING
IN NW WI AS RAIN IS ATTEMPTING TO GET GOING. ADDED SOME POPS FOR
THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MUCIN...BUT
NOT MUCH CAPE ATTM EITHER. HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM
INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN MN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS MEASURED AT 45 KTS AT 3 K FEET AS DEPICTED ON KDLH VAD WIND
PROFILE. THIS JET WAS PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND HELPING FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED
IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH FARTHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT...BUT WITH THE LINGER CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS...STORMS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP. BY NOON THE FRONT SHOULD
BE FROM ABOUT ELY TO BRAINERD...EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY STORMS EAST
OF THE FRONT...WHERE A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL FORCING AND AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM MORE STORMS. WITH THE FRONT PASSING INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AT THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL MEAN SOME STRONG STORMS.
WITH WIND SHEAR LACKING ...NORTHWESTERN WI IS IN MARGINAL SEVERE
CATEGORY. THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL AS UVM IS AIDED THE IN HIGH
CAPE ATMOSPHERE OF OVER 3000 J/KG BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE.THE
FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR BROUGHT WITH
THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY. COLD AIR BROUGHT T
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING 8H TEMPS DOWN TO 6 ABOVE IN
NORTHERN MN. THIS IS MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE THE 20C MEASURED
DURING THE 00Z RADIOSONDE DATA AT INL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND DEFINED BY AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THIS
REGIME WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND REPLACE BY AN ACTIVE/WET PERIOD LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
WILL DIG EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS
TIME AND LINK UP WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SFC LOW DEVELOPS A SURGE OF MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NWD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE...BUT
MUCH MORE RICH WITH MOISTURE. PWATS OVER AN INCH ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH
THE GFS BEING THE MOST NWD...TAKING THE LOW INTO NRN WI...AND THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE NAM OUTPUT HAS
THE MOST SLY TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE MIDDLE. THE
RESULTING RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...SO WILL KEEP MONITORING THE TRENDS OF MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMTS AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME IN
APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMTS COULD END UP ACROSS NRN WI.

AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES A PUSH
OF COOL AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND LATE THURSDAY WILL BE DRYING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINE
WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THE GENERALLY OUTLOOK IS DRY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODEST E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA ON-GOING
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS TUE AND WED WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE KBRD
AREA...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...AND THE
MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA...WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE KBRD
AREA...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...AND THE
MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA...WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  73  53  61 /  10  10  10  30
INL  49  68  43  71 /   0  10   0  10
BRD  58  73  52  70 /  10  10  10  40
HYR  60  73  51  70 /  60  20  10  40
ASX  60  72  53  70 /  30  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS DULUTH MN

 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 931 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A BRIEF BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING BEFORE MORE CLOUDS
WILL ROLL BACK IN. THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR CKC TO HZX AT
14Z. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND A WEST WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT. PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AROUND...BUT MUCIN IS KEEPING ANY
STORMS FROM FIRING. DID INTRODUCE SOME POPS FOR LATE THIS MORNING
IN NW WI AS RAIN IS ATTEMPTING TO GET GOING. ADDED SOME POPS FOR
THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS NO MUCIN...BUT
NOT MUCH CAPE ATTM EITHER. HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND NMM
INDICATING SOME DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 738 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SHOWERS HAVE DISSIPATED. UPDATED TO TAKE OUT MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FOCUS ON A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHWESTERN MN. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WAS MEASURED AT 45 KTS AT 3 K FEET AS DEPICTED ON KDLH VAD WIND
PROFILE. THIS JET WAS PUSHING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE
REGION...AND HELPING FUEL THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS HAVE DECREASED
IN INTENSITY AS THEY PUSH FARTHER AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND INTO
MORE STABLE AIR. WITH MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
IT...BUT WITH THE LINGER CLOUD COVER FROM THE OVERNIGHT
MCS...STORMS MAY TAKE A WHILE TO DEVELOP. BY NOON THE FRONT SHOULD
BE FROM ABOUT ELY TO BRAINERD...EXPECT THE BULK OF ANY STORMS EAST
OF THE FRONT...WHERE A COMBINATION OF FRONTAL FORCING AND AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL HELP FORM MORE STORMS. WITH THE FRONT PASSING INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AT THE PEAK OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
INCREASING AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL MEAN SOME STRONG STORMS.
WITH WIND SHEAR LACKING ...NORTHWESTERN WI IS IN MARGINAL SEVERE
CATEGORY. THERE IS A THREAT OF HAIL AS UVM IS AIDED THE IN HIGH
CAPE ATMOSPHERE OF OVER 3000 J/KG BY ANOTHER STRONG UPPER WAVE.THE
FRONT WILL EXIT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY. THE COLDER AIR BROUGHT WITH
THE FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A COOLER AND DRIER DAY. COLD AIR BROUGHT T
IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING 8H TEMPS DOWN TO 6 ABOVE IN
NORTHERN MN. THIS IS MUCH COOLER COMPARED TO THE THE 20C MEASURED
DURING THE 00Z RADIOSONDE DATA AT INL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE DRY AND DEFINED BY AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NRN MN AND WRN LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...THIS
REGIME WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AND REPLACE BY AN ACTIVE/WET PERIOD LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
WILL DIG EWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THIS
TIME AND LINK UP WITH A DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
AS THIS SFC LOW DEVELOPS A SURGE OF MOIST AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NWD
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WITH THIS BROAD SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE AIR MASS WILL BE MUCH COOLER AND MORE STABLE...BUT
MUCH MORE RICH WITH MOISTURE. PWATS OVER AN INCH ARE LIKELY. THERE
IS SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WITH
THE GFS BEING THE MOST NWD...TAKING THE LOW INTO NRN WI...AND THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF OVER THE NORTHLAND. THE NAM OUTPUT HAS
THE MOST SLY TRACK OF THE LOW THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES AND INTO LAKE
MICHIGAN. THE ECMWF AND GEM SOLUTIONS ARE IN THE MIDDLE. THE
RESULTING RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...SO WILL KEEP MONITORING THE TRENDS OF MODEL OUTPUT THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMTS AROUND 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. AT THIS TIME IN
APPEARS THE HIGHEST AMTS COULD END UP ACROSS NRN WI.

AS THE SYSTEM WRAPS UP ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES A PUSH
OF COOL AIR ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM COULD STEEPEN LAPSE RATES
ENOUGH TO TRIGGER POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL TREND LATE THURSDAY WILL BE DRYING
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINE
WITH A SFC RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE AND ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT THE GENERALLY OUTLOOK IS DRY LATE
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL APPEAR TO BE THE COOLEST DAYS OF THE
WEEK WITH A MODEST E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA ON-GOING
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS TUE AND WED WILL ONLY REACH INTO THE 60S AND
LOWER 70S WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN THE KBRD
AREA...WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN A FAIRLY NARROW CORRIDOR...AND THE
MAIN THREAT IN ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO
MORNING WILL BE A COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT IN NW WI. THE
STALLED OUT FRONT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING ALONG THE
FRONT...WILL SET THE STAGE FOR MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THE SOUTH AND EASTERN TAF SITES LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE KHYR AREA...WHERE SOME STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

BROAD LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD FRONTAL
ZONE BISECTS THE DULUTH CWA FROM SW TO NE AS OF MIDDAY. WHILE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS
LIKELY TO TAKE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING DUE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE CAP..LOW-MID LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE NWWD SLOPING FRONTAL
SURFACE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS FROM SE ND
TO NEAR KINL. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE PRECIP FORECAST IN THE TAFS TO
REFLECT AT LEAST A CHANCE OF VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE WESTERN TAF
LOCATIONS..AND TRIED TO FINE TUNE TIMING A BIT FOR KDLH/KHYR BUT
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW LONG RAIN WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS NW WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM NW TO SE AFTER 06Z..GRADUALLY BRINGING
AN END TO PRECIP CHANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  83  59  73  53 /  10  10  10  10
INL  76  49  68  43 /  10   0  10   0
BRD  81  58  73  52 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  83  60  73  51 /  20  60  20  10
ASX  86  60  72  53 /  10  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

 306 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED FOR THE
EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT AS STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ROLL OFF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A BETTER CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WHERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...DRIER CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST. A COLD FRONT THAT RACES THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MANY LOCALES STRUGGLING TO
REACH 80. DRIER WEATHER IS IN STORE AREA WIDE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONVECTION IS NOT QUITE AS ROBUST TODAY AS IT WAS YDAY AT THIS
TIME. THIS MAY BE OWING TO A COOLER START DUE TO REMNANT CLOUD
COVER THIS MORNING...AND PERHAPS MORESO...THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE
ON WV SATELLITE OF DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. REMNANT
MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO BE STRETCHING ACROSS THE EAST...AND
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR
STORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...THE HRRR SHOWS A
CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE...OR MAY CREATE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACCORDINGLY ONCE AGAIN.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORED FOR SEVERE WX ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE NOSE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET PUSHES INTO COLORADO
AND NORTHERN NM...INCREASING SHEAR. SHOULD STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND...AND CAPE VALUES SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO THIS
AFTN...BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. THUS...THE ADDED SHEAR WILL BE THE
MAIN FACTOR INCREASING SEVERE CHANCES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE
PLAINS...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH LESS...BUT COULD STILL SEE A
STRONG STORM OR TWO DEVELOP.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING WILL CROSS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SLIDING FROM NW TO SE ACROSS NM. FOR A
CHANGE..IT WILL ACTUALLY BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF NW NM.
STRUGGLED WITH WHAT TO DO WITH HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WEST. THE DRIER AIR WOULD SUGGEST WARMER...BUT LOWER
HEIGHTS/COOLER 700MB TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST COOLER. LATER ON TUESDAY
MORNING THRU TUESDAY AFTN...THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL BACK DOOR FRONT
WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS AND MODELS ARE NOW ADVERTISING IT WILL
PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED BEHIND THE BACK DOOR
FRONT...AFTER IT WAS SCOURED OUT BY THE PACIFIC FRONT. UPSLOPE
FLOW AND CONTINUED INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED STORMS
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NE. ONCE AGAIN...A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG OR
SEVERE.

AFTER THE TROUGH PASSAGE...MUCH DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...SIGNIFICANTLY LIMITING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE HARD TO COME
BY...DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ENTIRELY MIXING OUT ACROSS
THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ACROSS
THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MANY AREAS STRUGGLING
TO REACH 80F. THE DRY WX WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...THEN MODELS
CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE UPPER AIR PATTERN. THE EC SHOWS
ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRIER AIR CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO NM. THE GFS
HAS THIS TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH THE UPPER HIGH TRYING TO
REBUILD OVER THE SW CONUS...PERHAPS ALLOWING FOR SOME MOISTURE
SEEPAGE. BEHIND THIS AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...ANOTHER BACK DOOR
FRONT SHOULD REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS SAT
NIGHT/SUN. BUT WITHOUT A S OR SWLY FLOW ALOFT...THINK THE GFS IS
OVERDOING THE MOISTURE FLUX/QPF IN THE EXTENDED...AT LEAST THURS
NIGHT-SAT. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS DRIFTED FARTHER WEST INTO ARIZONA AND
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTING TO PUSH SOME DRIER MID LEVEL AIR INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE DRYING TREND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM
BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED BY MID TO LATE WEEK AS A DISTURBANCE SWEEPS
OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHWEST FLOW PREDOMINATES OVER NM.
VERY SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS POSSIBLE FROM THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

A SURFACE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE
RGV BUT THEY SHOULD MIX OUT WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK OR OVER THE WEEKEND COULD REPLENISH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CENTRAL
AND EAST...BUT BY THEN...A SPRAWLING RIDGE ALOFT COULD STEER THE
MAJORITY OF MONSOON MOISTURE AWAY FROM NM.

CONVECTION ALREADY GOING BY MIDDAY OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN. CELL MOTION TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WITH SHORT
TERM MODELS INDICATING THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL SEE RAIN THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AFTER STORMS GET GOING OVER SE CO. POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NE. ALSO LOOKING FOR A CONVECTIVELY
DRIVEN EAST WIND INTO THE RGV TONIGHT. MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WILL SEE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EASTWARD. THE BATTLE OF THE DRY IN THE WEST AND THE WET IN THE
EAST BECOMES SHARPER TUESDAY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
FORECAST WEST. HIGH HAINES FORECAST TO BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WEST TUESDAY...AND OVER NEARLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL...OVERNIGHT RH TRENDS WILL BE LESS
GENEROUS WEST AND CENTRAL AS THE WORK WEEK PROGRESSES...AND AFTERNOON
MIN RH VALUES WILL DECREASE AS WELL. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO
ABOVE AVERAGE...EXCEPT IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF
TUESDAY/S FRONT.

CONVECTION TAPERS OFF WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH A FEW MOSTLY DIURNAL
STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT SLOWLY INCREASES IN AREAL
COVERAGE INTO THE WEEKEND.

ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER THAN GFS DEVELOPING THE MASSIVE RIDGE ALOFT
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY 240 HRS IT HAS A MUCH STRONGER TROF OVER THE
NRN ROCKIES AND POSSIBLY A BETTER FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO NM FROM OLD
MEXICO. SO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVR CENTRAL AND ERN AZ WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALF OVR NM. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS SHOULD LIMIT CONVECTION THERE WHILE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS OVR THE REMAINDER OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND SLOWLY SPREADS
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE ERN PLAINS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN STRONGER STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45KT AND SMALL HAIL WILL OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE TERRAIN.
AFT 06Z PATCHY LOW CLOUDS/FOG POSSIBLE FROM EAST SLOPES OF
CENTRAL MT CHAIN OVER THE PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  95  59  93 /   0   5   5   0
DULCE...........................  52  88  50  85 /  10  10  10   5
CUBA............................  55  86  54  83 /  10  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  53  92  56  91 /   5   5   5   0
EL MORRO........................  54  88  53  87 /   5  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  54  90  56  89 /  10   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  55  88  55  86 /  20  10  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  60  94  59  92 /  30  20  20   5
CHAMA...........................  49  81  46  78 /  20  30  20   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  86  61  85 /  20  30  20  10
PECOS...........................  57  83  58  84 /  40  40  30  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  55  79  53  78 /  40  40  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  45  73  44  72 /  50  60  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  73  48  73 /  50  60  40  30
TAOS............................  53  82  52  82 /  30  30  10  10
MORA............................  54  79  54  80 /  60  50  40  20
ESPANOLA........................  58  90  58  90 /  20  10  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  85  61  85 /  30  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  90  60  89 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  93  65  93 /  20  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  95  67  96 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  96  64  97 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  95  66  95 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  96  64  97 /  20   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  66  96  66  95 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  65  98  67  99 /  20  10  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  88  59  86 /  20  20  20   0
TIJERAS.........................  61  90  61  91 /  20  10  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  88  56  90 /  30  20  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  86  59  86 /  40  30  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  88  61  89 /  30  30  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  91  64  92 /  30  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  59  81  61  84 /  30  40  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  83  57  81 /  50  60  50  30
RATON...........................  56  86  55  83 /  60  60  40  30
SPRINGER........................  57  87  57  85 /  60  60  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  84  56  85 /  60  50  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  64  87  62  83 /  50  60  60  30
ROY.............................  61  85  60  84 /  60  50  50  20
CONCHAS.........................  68  92  66  92 /  60  40  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  65  93  65  93 /  50  30  40  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  93  67  93 /  60  20  50  20
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  65  92 /  50  10  30  10
PORTALES........................  66  92  65  93 /  50  10  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  93  68  95 /  50  20  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  97  70 100 /  30  10  20  10
PICACHO.........................  64  92  64  94 /  30  30  20  10
ELK.............................  62  84  64  88 /  30  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY

NWS RAPID CITY SD

 1110 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

WESTERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING SMOKE FROM PACIFIC NORTHWEST FIRES INTO
THE CWA THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ARE SLIGHTLY REDUCED TO 9 MI AT
GCC AND 8 MI AT RAP UNDER AREAS OF SMOKE. ADDED PATCHY SMOKE TO
THE FORECAST FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER WAVE CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SD...WITH THE
NEXT WAVE APPROACHING FROM WY. ADJUSTED SKY AND POP GRIDS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY/SMOKY SKIES...TEMPS
ARE IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS HAS RIDGING OVER THE FAR SW CONUS WITH BROAD
TROF ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. SKIES
ARE VARIABLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A COUPLE AREAS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ONE OVER NORTHWEST SD...AND ANOTHER
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES AT 3AM ARE GENERALLY IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

TODAY...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST...WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTH INTO NEBRASKA. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR SOUTH CENTRAL SD
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED MOST
AREAS BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT NORTHERLY THIS MORNING
AND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS INTO MONTANA. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE MUCH
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

TONIGHT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA...BRINGING MORE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING AND THE BLACK HILLS AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL INTO THE 50S.

ON MONDAY...AXIS OF UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE
IN THE DAY...BRINGING BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO
MID 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS
SHIFTS EAST. WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH EARLY ESTIMATES OF 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES ACROSS
NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND 0.50 TO 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN FROM
NORTHEAST WYOMING...THROUGH THE BLACK HILLS...AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT WILL
BE COOL ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY IN THE 50S...WITH SOME 40S ACROSS
THE BLACK HILLS.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 253 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

STRONG TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN DAKOTAS TUESDAY...WITH BEST
Q-G FORCING DURING FIRST HALF OF DAY. SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO
TUESDAY EVENING AS WEAKER WAVE DROPS DOWN BACK SIDE OF TROF. WITH
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE. DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ALONG
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR THIS
WEEKEND. 00Z ECMWF HAS COMPACT UPPER LOW TRACKING THROUGH THE
DAKOTAS...WHILE GFS HAS PROGRESSIVE/FLAT TROF THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. AT THAT TIME MVFR
CIGS WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER NERN WY...THE BLKHLS...AND FAR SWRN
SD...AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LOWER TO
AREAS OF IFR CIGS FROM 12-18Z MONDAY OVER THE SAME AREA. SCT SHRA
ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE EARLY THIS EVNG OVER NERN WY AND
SPREAD ACROSS WRN SD OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MRNG.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...BUNKERS



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 351 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND POWERFUL MID-LATITUDE
DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY.
LEADING UP TO WEDNESDAY...AFTERNOON STORMS ARE EXPECTED DAILY...

CURRENTLY...THE PERSISTENT BUT WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL
MEANDERING JUST NORTHEAST OF THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT
RADAR MOSAIC IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO YESTERDAY/S WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE MEMPHIS METRO FROM THE EAST WITH
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT. STORM MOTION IS MORE
NORTHWESTERLY THAN WESTERLY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

IN THE NEAR-TERM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE AFTERNOON DURING PEAK
HEATING. FOR TONIGHT...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT A BAND OF
STRATUS/STRATIFORM LIGHT PRECIP WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER WILL DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. THIS LOOKS
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH SLOW VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN THE DIFFUSE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS AS
FORECAST...HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED TOMORROW GIVEN
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL PRECIP. ALREADY LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...BUT
MAY NOT HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT.

BY LATE MORNING...AREAS THAT DO SEE INSOLATION WILL BECOME
UNSTABLE QUICKLY AND WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT PRIOR TO 18Z.
IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF
PRECIP WILL BE TOMORROW...BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM BY MONDAY/S END.

A SIMILAR SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TO MONDAY WILL EXIST ON
TUESDAY AS WELL. LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON STORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE UNCAPPED AIRMASS WELL AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING
HIGHS COOLER GIVEN EXPECTED WIDESPREAD PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER
LIMITING HEATING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE-SCALE MEAN
TROUGH AXIS WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE CENTRAL US ON WEDNESDAY. THAT
BEING SAID...IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES DO EXIST WITH REGARD TO
PLACEMENT OF SURFACE FEATURES AND GENERAL EVOLUTION THE EVENT.
FOCUSING ON THE SYNOPTIC SETUP AND ANOMALOUS DEPTH OF THE
TROUGH FOR MID-AUGUST...ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS PROBABLE
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A WIDESPREAD EVENT STILL UNCERTAIN. THE
MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATICS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NORTH OF THE
MID-SOUTH...BUT THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT A SUBTLE LEAD IMPULSE AND
ASSOCIATED JET MAX AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH. THIS SOLUTION WOULD INCREASE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MUCH MORE
FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODEL SOLUTIONS. AS OF NOW...THE NAM IS THE OUTLIER WITH THIS
SOLUTION BUT IT SHOULD NOT BE DISCOUNTED AS OF YET. THERMODYNAMICS
WILL BE FAVORABLE WITH A BUOYANT WARM SECTOR AIRMASS IN PLACE.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATED MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500 - 3000
J/KG...DEPENDING ON LOCATION. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT AS OF NOW...WITH TORNADIC POTENTIAL LARGELY MITIGATED BY
WEAK/VEERED 0-2KM FLOW. CONTINUED THE TREND OF MAINTAINING LIKELY
PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON
WEDNESDAY.

FRONTAL PASSAGE LOOKS TO OCCUR SOMETIME WEDNESDAY...BUT IT WILL BE
SLOW TO OCCUR AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE AND MORE PARALLEL
TO THE FRONT WITH TIME. THIS WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN PRECIP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

IN THE LONG-TERM...THINKING REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BUT AN ACTIVE NORTHERN
STREAM LOOKS KEEP MUCH OF THE CONUS IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER REGIME
RESEMBLING LATE SPRING MUCH MORE THAN MID-AUGUST.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR PHT...NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS DRIVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF MKL THROUGH 20Z...
LIKELY EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER. HRRR APPEARS AT
OVERDONE INITIALLY...W/RESPECT TO TSRA COVERAGE IN THE 18Z TO 19Z
PERIOD.

LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
KEEP TS CHANCES LOW AT MEM...BUT LIKELY TIED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER NORTH MS AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MEMPHIS TN

 1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

UPDATE...

SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...MAIN UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
FINE-TUNE/INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES WHERE CURRENT CONVECTION IS
ONGOING...WHICH WILL LIKELY AID IN SUBSEQUENT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE PRECIP ALONG ITS
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN CONVERGENT AXIS. PRECIP WILL ONCE AGAIN WANE
AFTER SUNDOWN WITH THE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW GUIDANCE IN AREAS WHERE PRECIP HAS/IS
OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH OTHER AREAS REACHING THEIR FORECAST
HIGHS.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEVERAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE
A MORE ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION MID-WEEK.
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

CURRENTLY...

SATELLITE DATA AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACE THE CENTER OF A WEAK
UPPER LOW JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW NEARER TO THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES ARE 6-8
DEGREES COOLER NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER THAN THEY ARE NEAR AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS OF 3AM... AREA RADARS HAVE THE
MIDSOUTH CLEAR OF ANY PRECIP.

SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MORNING
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK UPPER LOW AS IT
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE. HOWEVER... THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO INTRODUCE SIGNIFICANT POPS. MODELS HAVE SOMEWHAT BACKED OFF ON
COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
BETTER CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA.
POPS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE WEAK UPPER LOW
MOVES NORTH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES TRANSPORTING MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE SO WE MAY BE LIMITED TO ONLY STRONG
NON-SEVERE STORMS. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL STICK AROUND INTO
MIDWEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE AHEAD OF A
APPROACHING TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR MID-AUGUST NORMALS
THROUGH MID- WEEK.

LONG TERM...

MID RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE PLAINS AND CONTINUE TO SWING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORMING
IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO ONTARIO. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH ON WEDNESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE PREFRONTAL AIRMASS WILL BE
WARM AND UNSTABLE AS A LLJ PULLS WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION
FROM THE GULF. THE SPC HAS THE MIDSOUTH OUTLOOKED FOR DAY 4. THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE MIDSOUTH LEAVING US WITH CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT
WEEKEND AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY. TEMPERATURES
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL VALUES.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

GOES WATER VAPOR SHOWED A COMPACT UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR PHT...NEARLY STATIONARY OR PERHAPS DRIVING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWEST.

EXPECT SCT SHRA/TSRA TO REMAIN NORTHEAST OF MKL THROUGH 20Z...
LIKELY EXPANDING TO THE SOUTHWEST THEREAFTER. HRRR APPEARS AT
OVERDONE INITIALLY...W/RESPECT TO TSRA COVERAGE IN THE 18Z TO 19Z
PERIOD.

LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
KEEP TS CHANCES LOW AT MEM...BUT LIKELY TIED TO CONVECTIVE INITIATION
OVER NORTH MS AND RESULTANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

 1208 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFS/

Isolated showers and thunderstorms may affect KSJT and KSOA this
afternoon. However, confidence in timing/location preclude any
thunder mention in the TAFs. Near KSJT, a large wildfire was
located 13 SM south of the terminal. Smoke from this may affect
KSJT at times, especially at night and during the morning.
Carrying smoke in present weather with a few clouds at 100 feet
during that time period to account for this. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

UPDATE...
Forecast has been updated to include possibility of isolated
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, across
the area roughly southwest of a line from Anson to Coleman to
San Saba. Water loop shows drier air in the mid/upper levels
impinging on our eastern counties. If this drier air does not
overspread our area and remains confined to our eastern counties,
the possibility of isolated shower/thunderstorm development cannot
be ruled out. The HRRR and NAM12 support this possibility. Have
updated sky condition grids for slightly increased cloud cover.
Will continue to monitor and update the forecast as needed today.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/

VFR conditions with light winds will continue at all terminals
through the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015/

SHORT TERM...
(Today and Tonight)
A broad upper level high will be centered over the Desert Southwest
today and will move further west over the northern Baja. Through
tonight, the forecast area will be situated between the upper high
to our west and an  inverted upper trough stretching from the Texas
Gulf coast northeast over the lower Mississippi Valley to our east.
The flow aloft will therefore remain north-northeasterly with drier
air advecting into the area. As a result, chances of any
shower/thunderstorm development will be remote. Afternoon highs will
be in the mid to upper 90s with morning lows tomorrow in the lower
70s.

15

LONG TERM...
(Monday-Saturday)
West Central Texas will remain on the eastern side of a ridge of
high pressure, centered over southern California and northern Baja,
through Monday evening. Both the GFS and ECMWF prog a strong shortwave
trough/80-90kt polar jet max to dive southeast into the Central
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, allowing a cold front to slide
south into the region on Wednesday.

The 00Z ECMWF and GFS were similar. For now, am splitting the
difference between the models. This upper trough and front should
give the eastern sections of WC TX the best chance for rain and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night. Cooler temperatures
are on tap for Wednesday and Thursday for much of the area. Still
too much uncertainty to pin point exact locations for rain.
Precipitable water values are progged to be in excess of 1.5
inches just ahead of the front with good low level convergence at
850 MB.

After the front moves across the area Wednesday and Wednesday
night, an upper level high pressure system is progged to build
into the area by the latter part of the week, causing temperatures
to rebound into the mid and upper 90s.

26

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene  97  73  95  74 /   5   5   0   0
San Angelo  98  72  96  73 /  10  10   0   0
Junction  97  71  94  72 /  10  10   5   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation: Doll




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

 128 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

HAVE ASSESSED MANY ITEMS OVER THE PAST HOURS INCLUDING
TEMPERATURES WITH UPSTREAM CONVECTION AND CLOUD DEBRIS...AS
WELL AS THE OVERNIGHT RAIN TRENDS.

HEAT. HAVE DECIDED TO STAY THE COURSE ON MUCH OF THE MAX
TEMPERATURE GRID WITH DEBRIS CLOUD HOLDING FROM NC WI INTO NC
IA...PROVIDING A MORE CLEAR SKY AND WARMTH OVER CTRL/SWRN WI. A
BIT OF RELIEF /1-3F/ IN THE DEWPOINTS HAS HELPED WITH COMFORT...AS
WELL AS THE LIMITED CLOUD.

OVERNIGHT RAINFALL POTENTIAL. CONFIDENCE HAS ACTUALLY LOWERED A
BIT THROUGH THE MORNING ON THE OVERALL TIMING AND POTENTIAL
RAINFALL. MAIN PROBLEM IS THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND LIMITED
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT TO CAUSE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND TSRA.
MUCAPE VALUES SEEM TO NEVER GET HIGHER THAN 500-750 J/KG.

THE AREA OF CONVECTION IN SWRN MN/SERN SD WILL TRY TO SHIFT EAST
INTO THE WRN FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME
HIRES MODEL SOLUTION CLUSTERS THAT TAKE THE MOST CONVECTIVE AREA
SEWRD AND NOT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THAT IS ACTUALLY OCCURRING
RIGHT NOW IN SERN SD AS THE HIGHER CAPE POOL IS OVER NEB AND INTO
SERN SD. ANOTHER GROUP OF SOLUTIONS SEEMS TO SAY ROBUST TSRA
CLUSTERS WILL SHIFT IN DURING THE EARLY-MID EVENING IN THE WRN
FORECAST AREA /HI RES WINDOWS AND NAM NEST/...AND SHIFT EAST. THAT
SEEMS TOO EXCITED PER CAPE THAT IS OUT THERE AND AVAILABLE TO THE
SYSTEM UNDER THE CLOUD VEIL. THINKING IS A BLEND OF THEM BOTH WITH
SHRA AND SCT TSRA OVERNIGHT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...WITH
GREATEST RAINFALL RATES AND TSRA COVERAGE OVER THE WEST...BEFORE
ANY CAPE DIMINISHES FURTHER OVERNIGHT AND FURTHER EAST.

BOTTOM LINE IS THIS ISNT QUITE A SLAM DUNK. ONE FACTOR THAT WILL
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE AREA IS THAT ELEMENTS WILL BE
MOVING SLOWLY ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING FRONT...ALLOWING MORE
RAIN COVERAGE.

MPX HAS ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT AND VERY DRY SOILS...HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON THAT
FOR NOW. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS INSTABILITY AND DURATION OF
INCOMING RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LINE OF CONVECTION
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT. THIS LINE OF CONVECTION IS ON THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT WITH THE LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWING
THE MU CAPE DROPPING DOWN TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG WELL NORTHWEST OF
THE TWIN CITIES. THE 16.05Z RAP DOES SUGGEST THIS INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND REMAIN
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH 12Z. THE 16.06Z HRRR SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST BUT WEAKEN IN
CONCERT WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. BY MID MORNING...THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA WITH THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGESTING THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.
THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOW ITS EASTWARD PROGRESS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE POSITIVE TILT SWEEPS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW THE CONVECTION
REMAINING ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF
SOME SNEAKING INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO THIS LINE OF CONVECTION
TONIGHT. THE HI-RES MESO MODELS ALL SHOW THIS WEAKENING AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES WITH A SUGGESTION THAT THE LINE COULD TOTALLY
DISSIPATE. THIS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION GIVEN THE FORCING FROM
THE POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL BE DISSIPATING AS THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH PULLS OUT INTO CENTRAL ONTARIO. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE LINE
TO BE THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN AND WITH WEAKENING CAPE AND
FRONTOGENESIS COULD EASILY SEE THE LINE BREAKING UP. THE LARGER
SCALE MODELS COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAKENING THERMODYNAMICS WITH
SUPPORT FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET AND
SOME WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT FROM THE LOW LEVEL
JET. THESE MODELS THEN HOLD THE LINE OF CONVECTION TOGETHER
BRINGING THE BAND INTO THE NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TO HONOR THE HI-RES MODELS HAVE LOWERED THE RAIN
CHANCES JUST A LITTLE BIT OVERNIGHT. THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE LOOK
PRETTY SLIM AS THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY AND THEN DIMINISH RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY BUT
THERE SHOULD AGAIN BE THE LACK OF FORCING AS THERE DOES NOT LOOK
TO BE ANY SHORT WAVE TROUGHS COMING THROUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
FRONT. THE THERMODYNAMICS WILL GET STRONGER THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
INSTABILITY SLOWLY BUILDS AND THE FRONTOGENESIS GETS A LITTLE
STRONGER IN THE 1000-850 MB LAYER. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE
FRONTOGENESIS STRENGTHENS THE FRONT MAY BE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. PLAN TO
STAY WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF A SLOWLY
WEAKENING LINE OF CONVECTION WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE 16.00Z MODELS THEN START TO DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE NAM AND ECMWF STALL THE FRONT OUT
MONDAY NIGHT FROM SOUTHERN WISCONSIN OR NORTHERN ILLINOIS INTO
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA WHILE THE GFS PUSHES THE FRONT FARTHER SOUTH
INTO ILLINOIS. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION OF THE FRONT
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW MUCH RAIN WILL BE OVER THE AREA AND
HAVE STAYED WITH THE TRENDS OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF SHOWING A
30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE BEST
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE NAM AND ECMWF THEN INDICATE THE
FRONT WILL NOT MOVE MUCH TUESDAY WHILE THE GFS PULLS IT BACK INTO
THE AREA AS IT DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW AND MOVES THIS UP THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE DIFFERENCES COME ABOUT FROM THE
DIFFERENCES IN HANDLING THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT COMES IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. ALL THE MODELS BRING THIS WAVE IN AND SUGGEST
IT WILL BE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES BUT THE GFS IS THE
STRONGEST WITH IT. FOR NOW...THESE DIFFERENCES DO NOT HAVE TOO
MUCH IMPACT ON THE FORECAST AS ALL SHOW THE FORCING INCREASING AND
WITH THE FRONT STILL IN THE AREA...SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 94 CORRIDOR. THESE DIFFERENCES DO
IMPACT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
SCENARIO...THE INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA
WHILE THE GFS WOULD BRING THIS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. PLAN TO
TREND TOWARD THE NAM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINING SOUTH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WET ONE AT THIS POINT AS THE
NAM AND ECMWF DO SPIN UP A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT AS THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW WITH THE
NAM KEEPING IT EAST OF THE AREA WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS UP THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA. EITHER WAY...THERE SHOULD BE AMPLE FORCING FROM
THE SHORT WAVE THROUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY WITH THE TRENDS IN THE ECMWF
AND GFS OF THIS PULLING AWAY MUCH QUICKER AND HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...HAVE
LOWERED THE MODEL CONSENSUS RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AND WENT DRY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 124 PM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THIS FORECAST WAS A TOUGH ONE TO BUILD DETAILS INTO AS CONFIDENCE
WAS BELOW NORMAL. A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITES TONIGHT. LIMITED OR WANING INSTABILITY PROVIDES A CHALLENGE
AS TO THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS AND THUS THE CIG/VSBY. ARRIVAL
OF THE FIRST TSRA CHANCES ARE ALSO OF LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE
INSTABILITY IS IN A FAIRLY NARROW CHANNEL RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT.

HI RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING QUITE A SPREAD IN THE OUTCOMES
FOR THE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL...DID NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH MANY
HOURS OF TSRA IN THE TAFS AND HAVE REDUCED THEM VIA A PERIOD OF
TEMPO. UPDATES WILL DEFINITELY FOLLOW AS THE TRENDS BECOME MORE
CLEAR.

FRONT MAY STALL OR SLOW ACROSS THE AREA AS ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HAVE FORECAST A FAIRLY DRY
MONDAY MORNING BUT THERE COULD BE REDEVELOPMENT OF WHAT LOOKS TO
BE AN MVFR SHRA. AGAIN LOWER CONFIDENCE HERE.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT




AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 319 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE LINE OF TSTMS THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN ALBANY COUNTY HAS
WEAKENED AFTER MOVING INTO LARAMIE COUNTY.  SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF INHIBITION OVER THE PLAINS...AND THIS MAKES SENSE
SINCE IT THE FIRST DAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NOT CONFIDENT WE
WILL SEE MUCH MORE STRONG TO SVR STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST WEAKENING.  BOTH THE GFS AND NAM DO SHOW
500-1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE (ELEVATED CAPE) ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THE NIGHT ALONG WITH GOOD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY LATE TONIGHT SO WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF TSTMS GOING.  THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.  LOW LEVEL RH PROGS AND SOUNDINGS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE PLAINS BY LATE TONIGHT.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL PROGGED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING
ON MONDAY.  A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTN OVER CENTRAL WY
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND BREEZY WEST WINDS TO THE
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. IT WILL BE QUITE DRY OVER CARBON COUNTY
WITH MIN RH VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  THUS ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 304 (SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW).  THE
THREAT OF SVR STORMS ACROSS THE PLAINS IS BECOMING MORE OF A
QUESTION MARK.  LOW CLOUDS WILL BE QUITE PERSISTENT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS STILL SHOWS SBCAPE VALUES RISING TO AROUND
1500 J/KG IN AREAS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.  WESTERLY MIDLVL FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE STRONG WITH BULK SHEAR OF 45-50 KTS.  SPC MODIFIED THE
DAY 2 OUTLOOK BY DROPPING THE SLIGHT RISK QUITE A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.
 LOWERED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WITH GUIDANCE NOW COMING IN COOLER.
UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE WILL OCCUR ON MON NIGHT WITH THE SFC FROPA BY
TUES MORNING.  HAVE HIGH POPS (50-70 PERCENT) OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA ON MON NIGHT WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT VERY GOOD IN
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS PULLED EAST TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL LOW
TRACKS INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. COULD BE SEEING SOME FAIRLY
STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS 850MB WINDS ARE FORECAST AT 30-35KTS. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS A LITTLE FASTER BY MAYBE 12 HOURS OR SO
MOVING THE LOW EAST WHILE ECMWF SLOWER...KEEPING POPS OVER THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING...LOOKS LIKE THE AREA
RETURNS TO DRY WEATHER. NEXT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE
SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. GOING TO BE FAIRLY COLD TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
UNDER NORTHEAST UPSLOPING FLOW. AS WINDS TURN MORE WESTERLY...WE
WILL BEGIN TO SEE WARMING TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

USED LATEST HRRR SYNTHETIC RADAR FOR EARLY TRENDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR OUR AIRPORT FORECASTS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES OVER
CHEYENNE AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AROUND 00Z. EASTERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO SET UP A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE EVENT FOR
AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT THESE
AIRPORTS WILL SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AFTER
08-09Z...PERSISTING INTO LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 254 PM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREAS TO THE WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON CAUSING BREEZY WEST WINDS TO
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY OVER CARBON COUNTY.  MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL DROP TO AROUND 15 PERCENT.  THUS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AND A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SOUTHWEST CARBON COUNTY (FIRE WEATHER ZONE 304).  MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR WYZ304.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZF
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...ZF



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

 1109 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

UPDATED THE FCST TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO WESTERN CARBON COUNTY AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EASTWARD. THE MODELS SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY (CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000-1250 J/KG) DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE
FOOTHILLS EASTWARD INTO LARAMIE COUNTY BY AROUND 21Z. BULK SHEAR
OF 35-40 KTS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS POTENTIALLY BECOMING SEVERE
THROUGH THE AFTN...MAINLY IN AREAS NEAR INTERSTATE 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY AND MONDAY WILL BE FOR SOME SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL OVER PARTS OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY
EVENINGS.

CURRENT OBS SEEM TO INDICATE A MODEST COOL FRONT SAGGING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL WY ATTM. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THIS MORNING WITH
THE FRONT BANKING UP AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL SET UP AN EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE
SURFACE TOPPED BY WESTERLY UPPER FLOW CREATING A DECENT SHEAR
PATTERN. CAPES THIS AFTERNOON FCST TO BE IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG
RANGE ACROSS THE SRN PANHANDLE INTO FAR SE WY WITH MUCH LESS TO
THE NORTH OF THAT AREA. THIS SHOULD CREATE A DECENT SETUP FOR A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE
MAIN THREATS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH...CAPPING CREATED BY THE LOW
LEVEL COOLER AIR MASS MAY HINDER ACTIVITY UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING
WHEN AN IMPULSE APPROACHES THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS AROUND 20 DEGREES
COOLER OVER THE PLAINS TODAY. SCTD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
PERSIST OVERNIGHT MAINLY OVER THE PANHANDLE. A SIMILAR PATTERN
SEEN FOR MONDAY WITH DECENT CAPES RETURNING BACK TO MAINLY FAR
SOUTHEAST WY AHEAD OF NEXT UPPER IMPULSE. HIGHER CAPES PROGGED TO
BE MORE OVER EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY AND PRESENCE OF STRATUS AND A
LOW LEVEL INVERSION MAY ACT TO HINDER ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR SHOULD ARRIVE MONDAY NIGHT WITH
RATHER COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MAX
TEMPS TUESDAY LIKELY HOLDING IN THE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING
THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS THE
MS VALLEY THROUGH MIDWEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY
EVENING AS A DRIER AIR MASS INFILTRATES THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST THURSDAY AND SOUTHWEST FRIDAY WITH
THE INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE ECMWF TRACK IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN WITH A CLOSED
LOW MOVING ACROSS MT AND NORTHERN WY FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY. IF THE
ECMWF VERIFIES...MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF WY. MONSOON FLOW WILL BE DIVERTED WELL SOUTH OF
THE CWA UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION MAY
RETURN TO THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. 700MB TEMPERATURES
WILL BE INCREASING EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY...REACHING THE MID TEENS
CELSIUS FRIDAY. HIGHS IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BE BREEZY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE EACH AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT. A COOL
FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY LOWERING HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES OR SO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1104 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

USED LATEST HRRR SYNTHETIC RADAR FOR EARLY TRENDS IN THE FORECAST
FOR OUR AIRPORT FORECASTS. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER
KRWL WILL BEGIN IMPACTING KLAR AROUND 19Z OR SO AND THEN KCYS
AROUND 21Z. COULD BE SEEING SOME LARGE HAIL WITH STORMS BY THE
TIME THEY REACH KCYS. SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AIRPORTS TOWARDS 00Z
AFFECTING KBFF AND KSNY. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO SET UP A
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE EVENT FOR AIRPORTS EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE. CONFIDENCE GROWING THAT THESE AIRPORTS WILL SEE IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG/STRATUS AFTER 08-09Z...PERSISTING INTO LATE
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SUN AUG 16 2015

NO CONCERNS SEEN FOR TODAY WITH NON-CRITICAL WEATHER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED...THOUGH THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZINESS OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME CONCERNS ENTER THE PICTURE MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER
FAR WESTERN DISTRICTS AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WITH MIN RH`S FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A SHORT TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW...THE THREAT LOOKS RATHER MARGINAL AND LOCALIZED.
EARLY THIS WEEK SHOULD SEE CONCERNS QUITE LOW WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
RETURNING ALONG WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR RAINS OVER MOST DISTRICTS.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...RE
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RE