Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/15/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
322 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
CURRENTLY...
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMGY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT 2
PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE ISOLD
TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY. CONVECTION
ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH DOWN
THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES
WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.
REST OF TODAY...
HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FCSTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LTG...BUT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR E
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE HIGH
AND DWPTS ARE IN THE 60S.
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TOMORROW...
500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2" THROUGHOUT
THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS TOMORROW SO
EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS TOMORROW. BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS ACROSS THE FCST
AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT
COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S
EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PNW INTO SRN CANADA OVER THE
WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AS
NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A QUITE
DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN PLACE...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
KCOS AND KPUB WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME TSRA/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES THEN
CLEARING. OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TRRN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1128 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
LOWERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING WITH NO SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIFT INTO VALLEYS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAP IS SHOWING ACTIVITY LINGERING HERE THROUGH
SUNSET AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS NO DISTINCT FORCING PRESENT TO
KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PRIOR TO NOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GENERATING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING...
EXPECT MOIST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE LATE EVENING. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A RECYCLING OF LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATED A RISING 7H
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MIDRANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S...
PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCTD AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE MUCH LESS
DISTINCT AND FLOWING OVER SRN CA...NV AND ID. AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER SAT AND
SUN...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND PUSHED SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK
MONSOONAL PLUME IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A SMALL UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE RETROGRADE OVER AZ WITH DRIER AIR
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEN TUE AND WED THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP
TROUGH DIGGING INTO IDAHO AND REACHING SW WYOMING WED MORNING. THE
GFS THEN MOVES IT ACROSS SRN WY DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS THE LOW EARLIER AND DIGS IT SOUTH OREGON TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES IT INTO WESTERN WY WED AFTERNOON. BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED...WITH THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
CONVECTION WILL FIRE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS BEFORE SUBSIDING AROUND 02Z. SOME TAF SITES MAY SEE
VCTS INCLUDING ALL MTN SITES AND RIFLE AND MONTROSE. BIGGEST
CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND SOME GUSTY WINDS. ILS
BREAKPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE MET AT ASPEN...EAGLE...AND RIFLE IF
SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE NEAR TAF SITES. REMAINING SITES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE BREAKPOINTS. QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH A REPEAT TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...TGR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
920 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 920 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
LOWERED CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE IS ONLY PRODUCING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS
AREAS NORTH OF I-70 THIS MORNING WITH NO SHOWERS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME DRIFT INTO VALLEYS THIS EVENING.
INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DIVIDE
MOUNTAINS AS THE RAP IS SHOWING ACTIVITY LINGERING HERE THROUGH
SUNSET AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE EXITS THE REGION. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET AS NO DISTINCT FORCING PRESENT TO
KEEP SHOWERS GOING OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE POSITIONED
OVER THE REGION THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
AROUND MIDDAY. EXPECT THIS FEATURE WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS PRIOR TO NOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH...
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WORKING ON LINGERING MONSOON MOISTURE. SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE
OF GENERATING LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. IN THE ABSENCE OF FORCING...
EXPECT MOIST CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE LATE EVENING. NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS SLIGHTLY WEST. DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A RECYCLING OF LINGERING MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS INDICATED A RISING 7H
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON HIGHS BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MIDRANGE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. FRI NGT THROUGH SAT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED
BENEATH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S...
PRODUCING ISOLD TO SCTD AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME WILL BE MUCH LESS
DISTINCT AND FLOWING OVER SRN CA...NV AND ID. AS A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ALONG THE U.S. AND CANADIAN BORDER SAT AND
SUN...THE RIDGE WILL BE FLATTENED AND PUSHED SOUTH WHILE THE WEAK
MONSOONAL PLUME IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A SMALL UPTICK IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WEEKEND.
MONDAY SHOULD SEE THE RIDGE RETROGRADE OVER AZ WITH DRIER AIR
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THEN TUE AND WED THE GFS SHOWS A SHARP
TROUGH DIGGING INTO IDAHO AND REACHING SW WYOMING WED MORNING. THE
GFS THEN MOVES IT ACROSS SRN WY DURING THE DAY. THE ECMWF
STRENGTHENS THE LOW EARLIER AND DIGS IT SOUTH OREGON TUE
AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES IT INTO WESTERN WY WED AFTERNOON. BOTH
MODELS SHOW WINDS SHOULD INCREASE WED...WITH THE FORECAST AREA
GENERALLY REMAINING IN THE DRY SLOT OF THE SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 400 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS EXPECTED. FROM 18Z-03Z
THURSDAY...ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED OVER ALL
OF EASTERN UT AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WESTERN CO. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AND SW
CO...WITH LOCAL HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. TSTMS WILL BE
IN THE VCNTY OF KEGE...KASE AND KTEX WITH 25 PERCENT CHANCE OF A
STORM AFFECTING THOSE AIRPORTS.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...CC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1118 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
LINE OF Q NOTED OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000
J/KG MIXED CAPE OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO INDICES ARE INCREASING OVER THIS SAME AREA.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE MTNS.
THIS AFTERNOON...
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS BOUNDARY OUT EAST. GIVEN THE
CAPE...INCREASING VALUES ON THE NON SUPERCELL SPC PAGE AND HRRR
SHOWING CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION...CANT RULE OUT A WEAK
ROPE TORNADO DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOW AND LATE AFTERNOON OVER E
KIOWA...PROWERS AND POSSIBLY BACA COUNTIES. OTHER CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...
WITH LIMITED FORCING OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
LOOKS A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED REGARDING CONVECTION INTENSITY AND
DURATION FOR THIS EVENING. I CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE M/U60S PLAINS WITH 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND MONSOON MSTR
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
DEEPER MSTR WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD AND WESTWARD...ENOUGH FORCING
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND MTNS FOR ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON TIME PD. NAM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HEAVY
HANDED OF ALL THE GUIDANCE AND APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LLVL FORCING...WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE IN THE L/M90S WITH 80S IN THE COS
REGION...AND 70S AND 80S IN THE THE MTNS. HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AND EDGING TO THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL FEED DIURNAL AFTN AND
EVE MT SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW-
MOVING AND MOVEMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SAT THROUGH MON...WITH
THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING OVER AZ. THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO E CO ON SUN...WITH MODELS SAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
THE PALMER DVD SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY
SUN...THE FRONT MAY HELP TO COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON MON...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR PCPN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
POPS SUN...BUT MORE SO SUN EVE AND DEFINITELY INTO MON. THE BEST
WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE COMES MON AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
ALL OF THE MTS AND E PLAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS INTERESTING AS
MODELS AGREE ON DROPPING A STRONG UPPER LOW DOWN ACROSS THE PAC NW
ON MON...BUT THEN THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE EC WANTS TO CONTINUE
DROPPING THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND WED...WHILE THE GFS
SWEEPS THE LOW DUE EAST ACROSS ID AND MT. FOR NOW WENT WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MT CONVECTION TUE AFTN AND EVE...THEN COOLER AND DRIER
FOR WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN VICINITY OF KCOS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DIMINISH BY 07-08Z. LIGHTNING AND BRIEF LIGHT
RAINFALL WILL BE PRIMARY STORM THREATS. OTHERWISE...SHOULD SEE
MVFR STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH COULD SPREAD WESTWARD TO NEAR THE KPUB
TAF SITE BY EARLY THURS MORNING. SINCE STRATUS IS MORE LIKELY TO
REMAIN TO THE EAST OF KPUB...WILL ONLY PUT A SCT MVFR LAYER IN
TOWARDS 13Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MTS AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK A LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES
THOUGH SO WILL CARRY VCTS AT ALL THREE TAF SITES. ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 40 KTS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY STORM THREATS. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KEY WEST FL
257 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...(700-200 MB)...LATEST
AVAILABLE IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MODEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AS OF
200 PM DEPICTS THE CENTER OF A DEEP AND WARM ANTICYCLONE OVER EASTERN
NEW MEXICO. LIKE EACH DAY FOR THE PAST WEEK...AND ATTENDANT UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SNAKES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD TO ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TO THE NORTH OF THAT...AN ABNORMALLY FULL LATITUDE TROUGH AXIS FOR
THE MID AUGUST IS EVIDENT FROM WESTERN QUEBEC SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.
AT THE SURFACE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS...SURFACE TO 700
MB...LATEST IR IMAGERY OVERLAID WITH MARINE AND LAND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND ANALYSIS AS OF 200 PM DETAILS A SURFACE COLD FRONT
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. A WEAKNESS OR SURFACE TROUGH IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO ANDROS ISLAND. THIS COMBINATION IS
RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
EARLIER TODAY...A LIGHT SOUTH WIND INVIGORATED AN EPISODIC YET BRIEF
UPPER KEYS CUMULUS LINE.
.CURRENTLY...AS OF 200 PM...SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND ADJOINING WATERS. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S. RADAR DETCTS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WELL WEST OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS. C-MAN STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE PRESENTLY IN
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BASE OF THE DEEP MID
AND UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARDS A BIT OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING THE
COOL SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA TO MOVE SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD A BIT TOMORROW. WEAK RIDGING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL KEEP
A LIGHT TO GENTLE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW FROM THE SURFACE TO 500 MB
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...THE LATEST HRRR DISPLAYS DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS OVER THE EVERGLADES THIS EVENING...PUSHING BOUNDARIES TOWARDS THE
UPPER KEYS. GIVEN A CLOUD LINE IN PLACE THERE...ACTIVITY COULD EXTEND
SOUTHWARDS TO THE MIDDLE KEYS. BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS TOO
LOW. SO WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLATED POPS IN THE GRIDS. THE SAME IS
THE CASE ON FRIDAY.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY ELEVATED LOWER LEVEL
CONFLUENT FLOW...IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT OVER NORTH
FLORIDA...COMBINED WITH DEEPER LOWER TO MIDDLE LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE AND A GENTLE TO MODERATE FLOW...WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FOR NOW...COVERAGE WILL BE
WIDELY SCATTERED...SO WILL HOLD WITH THE INHERITED 30 PERCENT POPS WE
ALREADY HAVE IN THE GRIDS.
SUNDAY THRU THURSDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND IN COMBINATION WITH MODEL FORECAST COLUMNAR PWAT BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES...30%...FOR THE PERIODS.
&&
.MARINE...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...RESULTING IN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS. HENCE...NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...UNTIL 12Z/15TH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND
MARATHON TERMINALS. MOSTLY SOUTHEAST WINDS OF LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE ISLAND AIRPORTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 81 90 79 89 / 20 20 30 30
MARATHON 81 93 79 91 / 20 20 30 30
&&
.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC/MARINE.........FUTTERMAN
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....APA
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
617 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF COULD
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE DRY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BELIEVE MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL
DOMINATE. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND
SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY
LOW POPS WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE EAST PART BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...AND SOUTHWEST SECTION
CLOSE TO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND HRRR DISPLAYED GREATER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT
BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WHICH MAY MOVE WELL
INLAND. WE KEPT THE POPS LOW WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER
TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
GETS REESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR A MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY PROMOTE MVFR RESTRICTIONS AT FOG
PRONE AGS/OGB EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS HAVE STAYED UP
AROUND 3 KNOTS WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT POTENTIAL. ANY
FOG/STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE AND A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY.
CUMULUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH NOT
EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS AT CAE/CUB/OGB. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE AT AGS/DNL WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHTLY MORE
FAVORABLE...ALTHOUGH STILL LIMITED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
556 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF COULD
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE DRY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BELIEVE MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL
DOMINATE. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND
SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY
LOW POPS WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE EAST PART BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...AND SOUTHWEST SECTION
CLOSE TO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND HRRR DISPLAYED GREATER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT
BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXCEPT POSSIBLY ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WHICH MAY MOVE WELL
INLAND. WE KEPT THE POPS LOW WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE NAM
AND GFS MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER
TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
GETS REESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TOWARD MORNING AT FOG PRONE
SITES...AGS/OGB.
WATER VAPOR INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR TEMPO
GROUP FOR FOG AT AGS/OGB 10Z THROUGH 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT AGS/DNL DUE TO HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
552 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECMWF COULD
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THE DRY WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS BELIEVE MID-LEVEL CAPPING WILL
DOMINATE. EXPECT LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND
SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY
LOW POPS WITH HIGHER VALUES IN THE EAST PART BECAUSE OF
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT...AND SOUTHWEST SECTION
CLOSE TO WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AND HRRR DISPLAYED GREATER COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT
BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXCEPT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WHICH MAY MOVE WELL
INLAND. WE KEPT THE POPS LOW WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER
TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
GETS REESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TOWARD MORNING AT FOG PRONE
SITES...AGS/OGB.
WATER VAPOR INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR TEMPO
GROUP FOR FOG AT AGS/OGB 10Z THROUGH 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT AGS/DNL DUE TO HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
452 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECWMF COULD
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM HAD MUCH MORE INSTABILITY
COMPARED TO THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE DRY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BELIEVE MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY DOMINATE AND EXPECT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY LOW POPS WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE EAST PART BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT...AND THE WEST PART WHERE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE INDICATED
GREATER MOISTURE AND THE HRRR DISPLAYED GREATER COVERAGE. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT
BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXCEPT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WHICH MAY MOVE WELL
INLAND. WE KEPT THE POPS LOW WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER
TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
GETS REESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE TOWARD MORNING AT FOG PRONE
SITES...AGS/OGB.
WATER VAPOR INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION MVFR TEMPO
GROUP FOR FOG AT AGS/OGB 10Z THROUGH 13Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION AT AGS/DNL DUE TO HEATING AND
CONVERGENCE ALTHOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT
AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
240 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE OHIO VALLEY EASTWARD INTO THE
DELMARVA REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN MAINLY
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MODELS KEEP DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HEATING AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT
AND WEAK TROUGH IN THE FORECAST AREA SHOWN BY THE NAM AND ECWMF COULD
HELP SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. THE NAM HAD MUCH MORE INSTABILITY
COMPARED TO THE GFS THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THE DRY WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY BELIEVE MID-LEVEL CAPPING MAY DOMINATE AND EXPECT LITTLE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYED JUST
ISOLATED COVERAGE. WE MAINTAINED THE VERY LOW POPS WITH HIGHER
VALUES IN THE EAST PART BECAUSE OF CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT...AND THE WEST PART WHERE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE INDICATED
GREATER MOISTURE AND THE HRRR DISPLAYED GREATER COVERAGE. LEANED
TOWARD THE HIGHER HIGH TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE RECENT
BIAS. USED THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS FOR THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE MODELS KEEP MOISTURE SHALLOW IN THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. DEEPER MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE REMAIN OFF THE
COAST ALONG THE FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FROM THE NORTH. THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EXCEPT POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE FRONT WHICH MAY MOVE WELL
INLAND. WE KEPT THE POPS LOW WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
NAM AND GFS MOS. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND ECMWF DISPLAY SOME WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING IN THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MEDIUM-RANGE PERIOD. SOME UPPER
TROUGHING APPEARS TO SHIFT FARTHER WEST EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BUT
GETS REESTABLISHED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS...ECMWF...AND EKD MOS HAVE POPS
OF 10 TO 30 PERCENT WITH MORE CONSISTENCY FOR HIGHER POPS MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. IFR/MVFR FOG EXPECTED LATE
TOWARD MORNING AT FOG PRONE SITES...AGS/OGB.
WATER VAPOR INDICATING VERY DRY AIR ALOFT. MODELS INDICATE
SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LATEST HRRR/LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY AT AGS/OGB. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY CLIMATOLOGY. WILL MENTION MVFR LATE WITH TEMPO IFR AT
AGS THROUGH 13Z AND A MVFR TEMPO GROUP AT OGB THROUGH 13Z. AIR
MASS OVER THE CAE TERMINAL AREA IS A LITTLE DRIER. FOG IS EXPECTED
TO DISSIPATE BY 13Z. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS
AFTER SUNRISE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION
ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1228 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING. WEAK WINDS ANTICIPATED AT THE SURFACE, AND
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING THIS MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, ON THE WAY TO THE MID 80S. LITTLE MORE THAN SCT CU
EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 07Z/2AM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3F IN MANY LOCATIONS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG. LATEST HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AT TIMES...HOWEVER IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
AND CONSISTENT HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HIGH/THIN
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE SKY AND SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...HOWEVER
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATING COMPLETELY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DUE TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE...AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE KILX CWA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE EXACT SOUTHWARD POSITION
OF THE FRONT AND LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
REMAIN HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND...A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT
WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS SEEN PROMINENTLY ON THE ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E/SE CWA. GFS
KEEPS THE WEAKNESS FURTHER EAST AND MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER. WILL
STICK WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW BRINGING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GEM HAD DONE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP AMONG THE 00Z AUG 13 MODELS CONCERNING THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE WAVE AND HAS THUS MAINTAINED THE EARLY WEEK
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BOTH KEPT THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE
WAVE IN QUICKER...THUS ALLOWING THE EARLY WEEK FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/GEM
HERE...RESULTING IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS EXCEPT A
FEW CU AND SCT CIRRUS. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE FA WITH
LIGHT WINDS VARYING SOMEWHAT FROM MOSTLY SOUTHWESTERLY. ENOUGH
LLVL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WILL KEEP MVFR VIS DROP IN THE EARLY MORNING BEFORE 12Z
AT ALL TERMINALS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1034 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY
THIS MORNING. WEAK WINDS ANTICIPATED AT THE SURFACE, AND
TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING THIS MORNING INTO THE MID TO UPPER
70S, ON THE WAY TO THE MID 80S. LITTLE MORE THAN SCT CU
EXPECTED IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER. NO UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 07Z/2AM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3F IN MANY LOCATIONS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG. LATEST HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AT TIMES...HOWEVER IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
AND CONSISTENT HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HIGH/THIN
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE SKY AND SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...HOWEVER
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATING COMPLETELY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DUE TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE...AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE KILX CWA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE EXACT SOUTHWARD POSITION
OF THE FRONT AND LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
REMAIN HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND...A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT
WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS SEEN PROMINENTLY ON THE ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E/SE CWA. GFS
KEEPS THE WEAKNESS FURTHER EAST AND MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER. WILL
STICK WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW BRINGING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GEM HAD DONE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP AMONG THE 00Z AUG 13 MODELS CONCERNING THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE WAVE AND HAS THUS MAINTAINED THE EARLY WEEK
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BOTH KEPT THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE
WAVE IN QUICKER...THUS ALLOWING THE EARLY WEEK FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/GEM
HERE...RESULTING IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
HIGHLY VARIABLE GROUND FOG HAS CAUSED THE TAF SITES TO QUICKLY
CHANGE FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
HOUR...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG THROUGH 13Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED AIRMASS CONDITIONS INDICATE WE
COULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN
CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD HELP ALLEVIATE THAT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIND DIRECTION MAINLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
646 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 07Z/2AM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3F IN MANY LOCATIONS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG. LATEST HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AT TIMES...HOWEVER IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
AND CONSISTENT HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HIGH/THIN
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE SKY AND SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...HOWEVER
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATING COMPLETELY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DUE TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE...AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE KILX CWA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE EXACT SOUTHWARD POSITION
OF THE FRONT AND LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
REMAIN HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND...A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT
WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS SEEN PROMINENTLY ON THE ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E/SE CWA. GFS
KEEPS THE WEAKNESS FURTHER EAST AND MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER. WILL
STICK WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW BRINGING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GEM HAD DONE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP AMONG THE 00Z AUG 13 MODELS CONCERNING THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE WAVE AND HAS THUS MAINTAINED THE EARLY WEEK
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BOTH KEPT THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE
WAVE IN QUICKER...THUS ALLOWING THE EARLY WEEK FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/GEM
HERE...RESULTING IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
HIGHLY VARIABLE GROUND FOG HAS CAUSED THE TAF SITES TO QUICKLY
CHANGE FROM VFR TO IFR/LIFR FOR SHORT PERIODS OF TIME THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITY SEEMS TO HAVE IMPROVED OVER THE LAST
HOUR...BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH A TEMPO FOR MVFR FOG THROUGH 13Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED AIRMASS CONDITIONS INDICATE WE
COULD SEE SIMILAR CONDITIONS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. SOME INCREASE IN
CIRRUS CLOUDS COULD HELP ALLEVIATE THAT SOMEWHAT. GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH WIND DIRECTION MAINLY
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...SHIMON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS IS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS TO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TONIGHT. 07Z/2AM SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS OF 0-3F IN MANY LOCATIONS...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO LEAD
TO PATCHY FOG. LATEST HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS A FEW SPOTS MAY SEE
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO AROUND 1/4 MILE AT TIMES...HOWEVER IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS
AND CONSISTENT HRRR FORECAST...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. ONCE ANY FOG DISSIPATES...MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. HIGH/THIN
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL STREAM
ACROSS THE SKY AND SCT DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL...HOWEVER
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA WILL TRY TO
SETTLE SOUTHWARD INTO ILLINOIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...HOWEVER
IT WILL BE PUSHING DIRECTLY INTO A PERSISTENT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
AND WILL NEVER PASS THROUGH THE KILX CWA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
THE BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THEN DISSIPATING COMPLETELY OVER THE
WEEKEND. DUE TO SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP-LAYER
MOISTURE...AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MINIMAL. WHILE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF
THE KILX CWA...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD POTENTIALLY DEVELOP
ALONG/NORTH OF A BLOOMINGTON TO PARIS LINE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES ABOUT THE EXACT SOUTHWARD POSITION
OF THE FRONT AND LACK OF MOISTURE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
ACROSS THE BOARD AT THIS TIME.
MAIN WEATHER STORY THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE INCREASING HEAT AND
HUMIDITY AS THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS SOUTHEASTWARD.
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND RISING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES
TO RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S BY SUNDAY. WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
REMAIN HOT AND DRY THIS WEEKEND...A POTENTIAL FLY-IN-THE-OINTMENT
WILL BE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AXIS SEEN PROMINENTLY ON THE ECMWF
AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ON THE GFS. THE ECMWF SHOWS THIS WEAKNESS
DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...WHICH COULD
POTENTIALLY TRIGGER ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE E/SE CWA. GFS
KEEPS THE WEAKNESS FURTHER EAST AND MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER. WILL
STICK WITH A COMPLETELY DRY FORECAST FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE
ON FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO SEE HOW THEY HANDLE THIS FEATURE.
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL PROGGED TO ARRIVE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE LATEST GFS NOW BRINGING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER SOUTH INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...MUCH LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OF THE
ECMWF/GEM HAD DONE. GIVEN GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS...CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE I-70
CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEN CONTINUE EVERYWHERE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS THE FRONT STALLS. AFTER THAT...CONSIDERABLE
DISCREPANCIES DEVELOP AMONG THE 00Z AUG 13 MODELS CONCERNING THE
ARRIVAL OF A STRONGER SHORT-WAVE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE WAVE AND HAS THUS MAINTAINED THE EARLY WEEK
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS/GEM HAVE BOTH KEPT THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTION OF BRINGING THE
WAVE IN QUICKER...THUS ALLOWING THE EARLY WEEK FRONT TO LIFT NORTH
OF THE AREA. WILL FOLLOW THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS/GEM
HERE...RESULTING IN WARM/DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
PREDOMINANTLY QUIET/VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z TAF VALID TIME.
HOWEVER, BASED ON ISOLATED OBSERVATIONS, AND SHORT RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE, HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR MVFR FOG DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD, AND THESE LIGHT WINDS SHOULD ALSO TEND TO KEEP ANY FOG
THAT DOES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT RATHER SHALLOW.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...BARNES
AVIATION...BAK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO SUPPORTING WEAK
WAA. AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CU IN NORTHEAST IOWA INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IS OF INTEREST AS A POTENTIAL IGNITION POINT FOR
STORMS...THOUGH LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
TO HAMPER THAT PROCESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR AND RAP SEEM A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE OR AT LEAST TOO FAST IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE CURRENTLY
INDICATES NOT MUCH MORE THAN MODERATE CU. PLENTY OF CAPE IS
AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE
STORMS. AT THIS POINT PLAN ON FOCUSING LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA JUST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SINCE
DIURNAL FORCING IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL WITH
NEITHER A FOCUS NOR A TRIGGER AVAILABLE DESPITE A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS. WOLF
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP IN PLACE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 20C. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM UPPER MI TO CENTRAL MN AND THEN TO FAR NW KS. WITH THE CAPPING
ATMOSPHERE AND NO TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND
90 OR THE LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...SUCH AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF
STORM SYSTEMS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS ENTIRE WEEK...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AN
EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER THE CWA. WAVES IN
THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS INDICATES A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IN THE MIDWEST BY MID WEEK...AND THEN
DRY AFTERWARDS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE UPSTREAM ENERGY. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
DETAILS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 634 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
STORMS OVER WI MAY MOVE OR DEVELOP INTO NORTHERN IL THIS EVENING
BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH ANY ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST OF THE DBQ
AND MLI TERMINALS. OTHERWISE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS NEXT
24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS. SOME PATCHY FOG
(2-6SM) APPEARS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT WITH MOISTURE AND LIGHT WIND.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
242 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE 60S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MIX. OVERALL DECENT
MORNING DESPITE DEWPTS IN THE 60S AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 72-HR PERIOD...BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE STILL
REMAINS THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA IN THE FORM OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS TODAY THRU SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM +28C
TO ALMOST +32C...FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. RIDGE
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY...FURTHER AMPLIFYING ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL
TOP OF IN THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY THRU SATURDAY. HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 FOR ALL AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE
MID 60S.
DESPITE THE TRI STATE REGION SEEING HOT TEMPERATURES...SOME RELIEF
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
THAT RIDE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIDING SE OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS REGION. FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES REMAIN IN A 1.00"
TO 1.70" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS SHOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL CANADA... JUST NORTH OF MINNESOTA... WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO THE PLAINS AND
OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF OUR CWA. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE
EAST THE FRONT WILL STRETCH AND BECOME MOVE STATIONARY OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA. THIS WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI
STATE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... WITH THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF NO PRECIPITATION
AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRIER AIR WILL
INFLUENCE THE AREA WITH STABLE AIR. HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BRING
PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND BEYOND THE EXTENDED.
SO WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS TO SEE IS INDEED
THIS NEW SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT KGLD AND
KMCK. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATER
TONIGHT AND COULD POSSIBLY DRIFT EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT KGLD WITH
MVFR CIGS. THE HRRR KEEPS IT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE KGLD TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATER THURSDAY
EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER THE RIDGE SO WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY STORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
212 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE 60S UNDER A MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MIX. OVERALL DECENT
MORNING DESPITE DEWPTS IN THE 60S AS WELL.
LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 72-HR PERIOD...BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE STILL
REMAINS THE MAIN WX FEATURE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...WHICH WILL PROVIDE
HOT CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA IN THE FORM OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. 850 MB TEMPS TODAY THRU SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM +28C
TO ALMOST +32C...FAIRLY CONSISTENT OVER PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. RIDGE
AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY...FURTHER AMPLIFYING ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL
TOP OF IN THE MID 90S FOR HIGHS FOR TODAY THRU SATURDAY. HEAT
INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW 100 FOR ALL AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR THE
MID 60S.
DESPITE THE TRI STATE REGION SEEING HOT TEMPERATURES...SOME RELIEF
DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL COME IN THE FORM OF A COUPLE SHORTWAVES
THAT RIDE OVER TOP OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...SLIDING SE OUT ONTO THE
PLAINS REGION. FIRST SYSTEM ARRIVES TONIGHT LASTING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
STORMS CONTINUE TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL AS PW VALUES REMAIN IN A 1.00"
TO 1.70" RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS (AROUND 597DM)
CENTERED OVER THE NEW MEXICO BORDER/TEXAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
(WEDNESDAY) IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SATURDAY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWING THE 700-500MB MOISTURE REVEALS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES JUST
WEST AND OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA AS
THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST A BIT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO MID 90S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT INCREASING A BIT DURING THE
DAY. GFS AND ECWMF IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALONG IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND/JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES
SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CURRENT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MID CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...LOW 90S EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE GENERALLY PRECIP
FREE MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
COLORADO WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE GFS/ECMWF
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
BRINGING PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO SOME. MODELS VARY ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S (WEST TO EAST) WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT KGLD AND
KMCK. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATER
TONIGHT AND COULD POSSIBLY DRIFT EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT KGLD WITH
MVFR CIGS. THE HRRR KEEPS IT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE KGLD TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATER THURSDAY
EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER THE RIDGE SO WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY STORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1130 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY THROUGH MID DAY THURSDAY WITH THE APEX OF THE UPPER RIDGE
SQUARELY IN POSITION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND EAST OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL BE ADVANCING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT TOPS THE
RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM A HIGH PRESSURE AREA
CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH CLIPPING THE
TRI-STATE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT ISOLATED
STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO BECOME SCATTERED DURING THURSDAY
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS (AROUND 597DM)
CENTERED OVER THE NEW MEXICO BORDER/TEXAS BORDER THIS AFTERNOON
(WEDNESDAY) IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TOWARD THE WEST INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO/SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO BY THURSDAY NIGHT THEN
WEST/SOUTHWEST INTO EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA BY 12Z SATURDAY REMAINING
STATIONARY THROUGH THE DAY.
FOLLOWING THE 700-500MB MOISTURE REVEALS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A DECREASING CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES JUST
WEST AND OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR SATURDAY PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASE A BIT ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 TO 1/3 OF THE AREA AS
THE MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST A BIT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...LOW TO MID 90S EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S.
SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS SPREAD
EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT INCREASING A BIT DURING THE
DAY. GFS AND ECWMF IN FAIR AGREEMENT BRINGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY ALONG IT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND/JUST OVER 1.5 INCHES
SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. CURRENT PRECIPITATION
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. FRONT APPEARS TO GET HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AVAILABLE. WILL CONTINUE
TO MID CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER
60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WEST...LOW 90S EAST
OF THE CO/KS BORDER.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...DRIER AIR ALOFT SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY SUGGESTING A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. SHOULD BE GENERALLY PRECIP
FREE MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ALOFT CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S IN
COLORADO WITH MID 80S TO AROUND 90 ELSEWHERE. LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT...MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER WHERE GFS/ECMWF
BRING AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE SCOOTS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN 1/3 OR SO OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE
EXITING THE AREA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY
BRINGING PERHAPS SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO SOME. MODELS VARY ON
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND THUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO UPPER 80S (WEST TO EAST) WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AT KGLD AND
KMCK. NAM BOUNDARY LAYER RH INCREASES OVER EASTERN COLORADO LATER
TONIGHT AND COULD POSSIBLY DRIFT EAST ENOUGH TO AFFECT KGLD WITH
MVFR CIGS. THE HRRR KEEPS IT OUTSIDE OF THE AREA SO WILL NOT
MENTION IN THE KGLD TAF BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. LATER THURSDAY
EVENING THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A SHORTWAVE
COMES OVER THE RIDGE SO WILL INTRODUCE VICINITY STORMS AT BOTH SITES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1202 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
...UPDATE TO AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 948 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
WV Imagery and 00Z upper air analysis indicate an upper level area
of high pressure centered across the South Plains of west Texas
and eastern New Mexico. Near the surface, a lee side trough of low
pressure remains anchored across extreme eastern Colorado.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
Temperatures for later this afternoon were necessarily trimmed again
by the HRRR due to widespread cloudiness, rain and cooled air near
the moist upslope convergence zone region between roughly highway 183
and 83. Although the areal coverage has been dramatically reduced
this afternoon, isolated showers could occur easily still occur
through tonight. The convective allowing models as a whole are far
less supportive of additional shower and thunderstorms development
heading into Thursday, perhaps partially owing to less of a
convergence zone with as surface winds turn southerly. With a lack
of widespread precipitation and/or cloudiness, the opportunity for
much warmer raw model forecast temperatures reaching into the 90s
is likely, which will be the case over the next several days.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
The best chances for precipitation will be a very slight chance for
most of the area, with a best chance in west central Kansas around
Sunday night, when models forecast shortwave energy across the
northern high plains. It is possible the entire area remains dry
during this time. A better opportunity arrives by mid week ,and
could last several days as a baroclinic zone impacts the region
with a breakdown of the upper ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Thursday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1200 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
A corridor of increased low level moisture combined with light
southeasterly upslope winds may result in the development of low
level stratus across southwest Kansas in the vicinity of KGCK
generally after 09Z this morning. As a result, MVFR cigs/vsbys will
be possible in the vicinity of KGCK with the potential for MVFR
conditions spreading eastward toward KDDC and possibly KHYS around
sunrise. Light southeasterly winds will persist through daybreak
this morning as a lee side trough of low pressure remains anchored
across eastern Colorado. South to southeasterly winds are expected
to increase to around 10 to 20kt late this morning into Thursday
afternoon as the lee side trough strengthens somewhat.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 67 91 67 91 / 20 20 10 10
GCK 66 91 66 91 / 20 20 0 0
EHA 66 91 67 91 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 67 92 68 91 / 10 10 10 0
HYS 67 92 68 92 / 20 20 10 0
P28 69 91 68 91 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...JJohnson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
344 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. A WARM RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HRRR MODEL OUTPUT CONTS TO SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SHWRS FROM
ENE TO INTERIOR SW DOWNEAST PTNS OF THE FA GOING INTO THIS EVE...
CLOSE TO WHERE SKIES VARIED FROM PTLY TO MSLY CLDY N OF THIS AREA
TO MSLY SUNNY S. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE HRRR HAS BEEN ADVERTISING
THE PRESENCE OF SHWRS OVR THE N/CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA OVR THE LAST
FEW HRS WHERE RADAR REF IMAGERY HAS HARDLY SHOW ANY. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP ISOLD TO SCT SHWRS OVR THE AFOREMENTIONED PTNS OF THE FA INTO
THIS EVE...THEN XPCT ANY SHWRS TO DISSIPATE LATE TNGT. WE KEPT
FCST QPF...MSLY IN THE 00-06Z TM FRAME VERY LGT...MSLY LESS THAN
0.05 INCHES...WITH FCST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING NAY CAPE
POTENTIAL BELOW 400 J/KG.
OTHERWISE...WITH CLRG SKIES AND LIGHTENING WINDS OVRNGT...THE
POTENTIAL OF LOW LYING PATCHY FOG WILL INCREASE LATE TNGT TOWARD
SUNRISE FRI MORN FROM N CNTRL TO DOWNEAST AREAS. AFT PATCHY ERLY
MORN FOG DISSIPATES BY MID FRI MORN...SKIES SHOULD BE MSLY SUNNY
AND WITH A SW SFC WIND...HI TEMPS SHOULD RECOVER TO ABV NORMAL
VALUES FOR THIS TM OF SEASON. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKENING S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN WILL BRING A CHC OF SHWRS AND
MAYBE ISOLD TSTMS (MAX SBCAPE POTENTIAL ABOUT 400 J/KG) OVR FAR
NW PTNS OF THE FA BY ERLY FRI EVE...THEN SLOWLY SPREADING SE INTO
NERN TO N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO ERLY SAT MORN.
STREAM BASIN QPF WILL BE FAIRLY MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM THRU LATE
NGT FRI NGT GIVEN SCT SHWR POTENTIAL...BUT A FEW LCTNS RECEIVING
HEAVIER RN SHWRS COULD RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOME INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL
AREAS ALONG WITH INTERIOR SOUTH CENTRAL... SO WILL INCLUDE
SCATTERED THUNDER. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THE NAM... GFS AND ECMWF HAVE MINOR
DIFFERENCES SO WILL USE MODEL CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND BLEND ALL
THREE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A
COLD FRONT WHICH IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK. SCTD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS
WRN MAINE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD EWRD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...THE MAIN FOCUS OF PRECIP WILL BE ACROSS OUR ERN AND SRN
ZONES AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE OFF SHORE. ONLY THE DOWNEAST
AREA SHOULD SEE RAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM QUEBEC ACROSS NRN MAINE. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S ON MONDAY. HOWEVER
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...ALONG WITH THE EXPECTED
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER...WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR THRU FRI NGT. PATCHY MVFR/IFR VSBY IS
POSSIBLE AT ANY TAF SITE LATE TNGT IN PATCHY FOG. CLGS/VSBYS MAY
APCH HI MVFR THRESHOLDS LATE FRI NGT ACROSS NRN TAF SITES IN
SHWRS.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY THEN VFR
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HDLNS THRU FRI NGT ATTM...WITH HI PD SE SWELL TNGT
INTO FRI MORN TRANSITIONING TO LOWER PD WIND WVS FRI AFTN AND FRI
NGT AS RETURN SW SFC WINDS INCREASE. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE
THIS UPDATE DUE TO CURRENT SWELL COMPONENT.
SHORT TERM: GFS40 AND NAM12 SIMILAR WITH WINDS SO WILL USE
CONSENSUS METHOD FOR WINDS WITH 50/50 BLEND. FOR WAVES: WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT... PRIMARY WAVE
SYSTEM WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL (3-4 FEET/8 SECONDS)
ORIGINATING FROM OUTSIDE COASTAL WATERS. HAVE USED 1200Z RUN OF
NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL RUN ON WAVE WATCH III BOUNDARY CONDITIONS.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...VJN
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...VJN/MIGNONE
MARINE...VJN/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
328 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE WITH 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EARLY WILL
HELP SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
AND CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CLIP THE W CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 21/00Z
NAM AND 21/03Z HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT WOULD
BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING THE
BULK OF PRECIP OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR STABILIZATION. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW N CENTRAL AND E...THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO THE RECORD AT NWS MQT
WHICH IS 89 SET BACK IN 1970. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR
ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO RAPID RIVER...EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. PW VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 1.6IN W TO E TODAY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 1-1.2IN CWA WIDE BY 06Z. WITH THE MAIN SFC TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM AIR FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CWA...LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FROM THE NW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND SAT NIGHT...EXPECT DRY WEATHER UNDER RISING
HEIGHTS WITH MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SAT WILL BE A WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 80S PERHAPS EVEN LOWER 90S IN A FEW SPOTS AS NEAR 20C
8H TEMPS MIX DRY ADIABATICALLY TOWARD SFC UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SUN INTO MON...SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT WILL
LIFT ENE INTO NRN ONTARIO SUN. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH WRN UPPER MI LATE SUNDAY AFTN/EARLY EVENING
AND THEN EXITING THE ERN U.P. MON MORNING WITH THE NAM SLIGHTLY
FASTER WITH THAN THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF. WITH BEST HEIGHT FALLS/DEEP
LAYER FORCING PASSING TO THE N...CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONTAL
PASSAGE PROBABLY WON`T BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT. HOWEVER...AS UPPER
JET TRANSLATES E INTO ONTARIO RIGHT ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE MAY
SEE SOME INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ALONG FRONT INTO CENTRAL
AND ERN UPR MI SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON.
WITH FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY...SUN WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY WARM...HUMID DAY AS 8H THERMAL RIDGE WITH 8H TEMPS OF AT LEAST
20C SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
FAIRLY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTIER SOUTHWEST
WINDS...PROBABLY 20-25MPH TO PERHAPS 30MPH AT TIMES AS NOTED OFF
MIXED BUFR FCST SNDGS.
ABRUPT COOLING (AND LOWERING OF DWPTS) WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR MON
AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK TO 6 TO 10C. EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S W AND N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MID 70S SCTNRL/SE.
CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET MAY
ALLOW LINGERING SHRA/TSTMS INTO MON MORNING OVER THE SCNTRL AND E
FCST AREA NEAR EXITING FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DRYING
CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
LOOK FOR DRY WEATHER MON AFTN INTO TUE AS SFC HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS
AND DOMINATES THE UPPER LAKES. WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.5 INCHES...EXPECT MIN TEMPS MON NIGHT TO
FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S.
MODELS CONSISTENT SHOWING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE EMERGING FROM THE CNTRL
ROCKIES AND MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES FROM MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF
SHRA/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE HVY RAINFALL. INITIALLY...STRENGTHENING
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE ALONG WITH THE
PRESENCE OF A WEAKER NW FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TSTMS
SPREADING INTO UPPER MI LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THU INTO
THU NIGHT WITH STRONG WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING STRONG WAVE AND ASSOC COLD FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT FOR THE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING...EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA TO
AFFECT KSAW. SINCE TSRA COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAF ATTM. COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF RAIN THIS AFTN AT
KSAW COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NE AND
E LAKE SUPERIOR...CLOSER TO THE COLDEST WATER AS WARM HUMID AIR
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OVER A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR INITIALLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE HIGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND MN THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE E FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO
AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO
QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR A HIGH TO MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR I-96. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
WARM TO HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OVERALL...I`M NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND WON`T PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...600 J/K SBCAPE IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH. PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. LATEST HRRR DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING A BIT FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO NEAR I-96. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK
LOW TOO WITH ONLY 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE ZERO DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM GUIDANCE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE REACHING
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 202 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING
OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING AREAS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN BY 06Z AND
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY AROUND 10Z. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 12 TO 15Z THEN VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
MARINE HEADLINES WILL REMAIN AS IS...ALTHOUGH SCA CONDITIONS ARE
MARGINAL. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND THE HEADLINE MAY BE BE
CANCELLED EARLY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ037-
043-050-056-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...OSTUNO
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
306 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM WESTERLIES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE NOTED ON 1830Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE. THE FIRST IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN WESTERN EDGE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR; THE SECOND OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. INITIAL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRANSIT THE CWA AROUND 03-06Z AND WILL OUTPACE THE SLOWLY
EVOLVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT, EXPECT SUFFICIENT FORCING TO PRODUCE A JUST A PARTIAL
COVERAGE WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT NOTHING OF NOTE DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GRIDS WITH A
BLANKET 30 POP THROUGH 2AM.
STEEPER LAPSE RATE RATE ENVIRONMENT ORIGINATING OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL THEN STRING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ONGOING SWLY FLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THIS WAVE. WARM 900-800MB LAYER WILL CONTAIN MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS FEATURING 700 TO 1000 J/KG LOW DENSITY CAPE. THOUGHTS
REGARDING NOCTURNAL COOLING OF UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND ONGOING
DIFFERENTIAL WAA REMAIN FROM PREV DISCUSSION REMAIN IN PLAY AND
OFFER ADDED CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. QPF IN MOST GUIDANCE IS UNINSPIRING, LIKELY
OWING TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT, BUT INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY AIR FAIRLY EASILY. COVERAGE CONCERNS
PRECLUDE A HIGHER POP MENTION, BUT 08-12Z PERIOD APPEARS WORTH AT
LEAST ANOTHER BLANKET CHC POP...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS SW AREAS
WHERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE RAP IS MODELED TO BE
STRONGEST. TENDENCY FOR ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIMITS PROSPECTS FOR ANYTHING TO REACH DETROIT
METRO BEFORE SUNRISE.
MIXED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WAA THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION
OF THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DROPPING BELOW 20 KNOTS...THUS SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...AND WILL NEED TO RELAY ON HIGH
INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY NEVER MATERIALIZE...AS NAM CONTINUES TO
OVERPLAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH MID 70 SURFACE DEW PTS
FORECASTED. MORE REALISTIC DEW PTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
(BASED ON 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 C WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S)...0-1
KM CAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PULSE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES (SETTING RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY)...EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE FOLDING OVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER
AIR/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SPILL OVER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
TEENS ON SATURDAY...AND APPROACHING 20 C ON SUNDAY...WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING TO NEAR 580 DAM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
AROUND ON SATURDAY AND AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE) BEFORE WARM
MID LEVEL AIR/RIDGE AXIS/CAP WORKS INTO THE AREA. WEAK WIND
FIELDS/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO GARDEN VARIETY TYPE
STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP.
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR A
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVE TO CREATE
MUGGY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WHILE ANY EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL
HINDER SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE BETTER TRACKING/TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR STREAMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER LOW LEVEL STABILITY...TRANSLATING TO WEAK WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.AVIATION...ISSUED 1254 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15KTS FALLING
BELOW 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. INCREASING MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BRING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS LATE, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH. LEFT
MENTION OF TSTORMS IN FOR MBS/FNT BUT WILL OPT TO MONITOR TRENDS
BEFORE INTRODUCING ELSEWHERE.
FOR DTW...EPISODES OF FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOB 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/PS
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....JVC
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
127 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE WITH 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EARLY WILL
HELP SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
AND CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CLIP THE W CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 21/00Z
NAM AND 21/03Z HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT WOULD
BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING THE
BULK OF PRECIP OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR STABILIZATION. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW N CENTRAL AND E...THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO THE RECORD AT NWS MQT
WHICH IS 89 SET BACK IN 1970. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR
ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO RAPID RIVER...EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. PW VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 1.6IN W TO E TODAY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 1-1.2IN CWA WIDE BY 06Z. WITH THE MAIN SFC TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM AIR FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CWA...LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FROM THE NW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FADE AWAY AS TWO
FAIRLY ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES SWING THRU WRN NAMERICA. THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS SW CANADA/PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES FRI/SAT WILL AFFECT
THE UPPER LAKES SUN/MON. THE SECOND WILL DIVE FARTHER S INTO THE
ROCKIES TUE/WED AND THEN LIFT NE TO THE UPPER LAKES/NRN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY VCNTY BY FRI. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE WRN
RIDGE...THE CURRENT ERN CONUS TROF WILL FILL AND BE REPLACED BY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THESE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE WEEKEND...THEN A FALL BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY SHOULD
OCCUR SUN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL. AS FOR PCPN...SCT
SHRA/TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...THEN DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SAT AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS FORCED EASTWARD BY
THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A RISK OF PCPN SUN/MON...THOUGH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
LIFTING ENE...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SOME FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
STRONG TO SVR STORMS AT SOME POINT WED/THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SECOND WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE W AND ITS ASSOCIATED FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SFC LOW FOR AUG.
BEGINNING FRI...COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. MAY SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSTMS IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ACROSS THE
S...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE/INSTABILITY BUILD UP. WITH MLCAPES REACHING AT LEAST
1000-1500J/KG...AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DUE TO LAKE BREEZE...TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE EARLY IN THE AFTN. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL. IF FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE S...TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN IF THE FRONT PASSES IN THE LATE AFTN.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25KT...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SVR STORM IF FROPA IS LATER IN THE
AFTN. IT WILL BE A WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
LIGHT WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS N...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY.
DRY WEATHER WILL SET IN FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT UNDER RISING HEIGHTS WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SAT WILL BE A
WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT WILL LIFT ENE INTO
NRN ONTARIO SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH WRN UPPER
MI LATE IN THE AFTN AS GFS WHICH HAD BEEN FASTEST WITH THE FRONT HAS
SLOWED TO BE MORE INLINE WITH THE GEM/ECMWF. WITH BEST HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSING TO THE N...CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT AS IT PASSES PROBABLY WON`T BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES E AND BETTER POSITIONS RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERTOP FRONT SUN NIGHT...EXPECT CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT. WITH FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY...SUN WILL BE A VERY WARM...HUMID DAY AS 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AT LEAST 20C SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REACHING 90F AT SOME LOCATIONS. FAIRLY
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTIER WINDS...PROBABLY 20-
25MPH TO PERHAPS 30MPH AT TIMES.
HEALTHY COOLING (AND LOWERING OF DWPTS) WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
MON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK TO 6 TO 10C. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S W AND N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MID 70S SCTNRL/SE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER LAKES TO NRN/CNTRL QUEBEC MAY HELP SHRA/TSTMS LINGER INTO MON
MORNING OVER THE SCNTRL AND E EVEN THOUGH SFC FRONT SHOULD BE JUST S
AND E OF THAT AREA AT 12Z MON.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE THE RULE MON AFTN INTO TUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.5 INCHES...TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE HVY RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WAVE
WILL SUPPORT SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI WED/WED NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 126 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING...BUT FOR THE AFTN INTO
THE EVENING...EXPECT BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA AND POSSIBLE TSRA TO
AFFECT KSAW. SINCE TSRA COVERAGE IS TOO UNCERTAIN DID NOT INCLUDE IN
THE TAF ATTM. COLD FRONT WILL WORK ACROSS UPR MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY
MORNING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN SCT-BKN MID
CLOUDS AT THE TAF SITES. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF RAIN THIS AFTN AT
KSAW COULD SEE PATCHY MVFR FOG BRIEFLY DEVELOP THERE LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NE AND
E LAKE SUPERIOR...CLOSER TO THE COLDEST WATER AS WARM HUMID AIR
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OVER A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR INITIALLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE HIGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND MN THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE E FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO
AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO
QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR A HIGH TO MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
739 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE WITH 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EARLY WILL
HELP SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
AND CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CLIP THE W CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 21/00Z
NAM AND 21/03Z HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT WOULD
BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING THE
BULK OF PRECIP OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR STABILIZATION. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW N CENTRAL AND E...THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO THE RECORD AT NWS MQT
WHICH IS 89 SET BACK IN 1970. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR
ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO RAPID RIVER...EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. PW VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 1.6IN W TO E TODAY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 1-1.2IN CWA WIDE BY 06Z. WITH THE MAIN SFC TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM AIR FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CWA...LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FROM THE NW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FADE AWAY AS TWO
FAIRLY ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES SWING THRU WRN NAMERICA. THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS SW CANADA/PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES FRI/SAT WILL AFFECT
THE UPPER LAKES SUN/MON. THE SECOND WILL DIVE FARTHER S INTO THE
ROCKIES TUE/WED AND THEN LIFT NE TO THE UPPER LAKES/NRN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY VCNTY BY FRI. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE WRN
RIDGE...THE CURRENT ERN CONUS TROF WILL FILL AND BE REPLACED BY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THESE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE WEEKEND...THEN A FALL BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY SHOULD
OCCUR SUN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL. AS FOR PCPN...SCT
SHRA/TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...THEN DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SAT AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS FORCED EASTWARD BY
THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A RISK OF PCPN SUN/MON...THOUGH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
LIFTING ENE...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SOME FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
STRONG TO SVR STORMS AT SOME POINT WED/THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SECOND WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE W AND ITS ASSOCIATED FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SFC LOW FOR AUG.
BEGINNING FRI...COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. MAY SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSTMS IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ACROSS THE
S...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE/INSTABILITY BUILD UP. WITH MLCAPES REACHING AT LEAST
1000-1500J/KG...AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DUE TO LAKE BREEZE...TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE EARLY IN THE AFTN. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL. IF FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE S...TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN IF THE FRONT PASSES IN THE LATE AFTN.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25KT...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SVR STORM IF FROPA IS LATER IN THE
AFTN. IT WILL BE A WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
LIGHT WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS N...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY.
DRY WEATHER WILL SET IN FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT UNDER RISING HEIGHTS WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SAT WILL BE A
WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT WILL LIFT ENE INTO
NRN ONTARIO SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH WRN UPPER
MI LATE IN THE AFTN AS GFS WHICH HAD BEEN FASTEST WITH THE FRONT HAS
SLOWED TO BE MORE INLINE WITH THE GEM/ECMWF. WITH BEST HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSING TO THE N...CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT AS IT PASSES PROBABLY WON`T BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES E AND BETTER POSITIONS RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERTOP FRONT SUN NIGHT...EXPECT CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT. WITH FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY...SUN WILL BE A VERY WARM...HUMID DAY AS 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AT LEAST 20C SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REACHING 90F AT SOME LOCATIONS. FAIRLY
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTIER WINDS...PROBABLY 20-
25MPH TO PERHAPS 30MPH AT TIMES.
HEALTHY COOLING (AND LOWERING OF DWPTS) WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
MON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK TO 6 TO 10C. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S W AND N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MID 70S SCTNRL/SE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER LAKES TO NRN/CNTRL QUEBEC MAY HELP SHRA/TSTMS LINGER INTO MON
MORNING OVER THE SCNTRL AND E EVEN THOUGH SFC FRONT SHOULD BE JUST S
AND E OF THAT AREA AT 12Z MON.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE THE RULE MON AFTN INTO TUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.5 INCHES...TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE HVY RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WAVE
WILL SUPPORT SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI WED/WED NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPSTREAM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISHED QUICKLY FROM CANADA
AND NW MN EARLY THIS MORNING. STILL SOME RAIN SHOWERS...BUT
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL HAS DIMINISHED THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECTING CONVECTION TO STAY MAINLY TO THE E OF
IWD AND CMX...IN PART DUE TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN SO WILL NOT MENTION
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAW TAFS AT THIS POINT. DEPENDING ON PRECIP AND
OVERALL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BR COULD COME BACK TO SAW AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT BUT EXPECTING VIS TO STAY MAINLY MVFR OR HIGHER.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NE AND
E LAKE SUPERIOR...CLOSER TO THE COLDEST WATER AS WARM HUMID AIR
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OVER A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR INITIALLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE HIGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND MN THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE E FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO
AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO
QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR A HIGH TO MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
501 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE WITH 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EARLY WILL
HELP SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
AND CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CLIP THE W CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 21/00Z
NAM AND 21/03Z HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT WOULD
BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING THE
BULK OF PRECIP OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR STABILIZATION. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW N CENTRAL AND E...THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO THE RECORD AT NWS MQT
WHICH IS 89 SET BACK IN 1970. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR
ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO RAPID RIVER...EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. PW VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 1.6IN W TO E TODAY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 1-1.2IN CWA WIDE BY 06Z. WITH THE MAIN SFC TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM AIR FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CWA...LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FROM THE NW.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 501 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS...RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL FADE AWAY AS TWO
FAIRLY ENERGETIC SHORTWAVES SWING THRU WRN NAMERICA. THE FIRST
MOVING ACROSS SW CANADA/PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES FRI/SAT WILL AFFECT
THE UPPER LAKES SUN/MON. THE SECOND WILL DIVE FARTHER S INTO THE
ROCKIES TUE/WED AND THEN LIFT NE TO THE UPPER LAKES/NRN
ONTARIO/HUDSON BAY VCNTY BY FRI. WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE WRN
RIDGE...THE CURRENT ERN CONUS TROF WILL FILL AND BE REPLACED BY
ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. THESE LARGE SCALE CHANGES WILL RESULT IN
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING THRU THE WEEKEND...THEN A FALL BACK
TO SLIGHTLY BLO NORMAL CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. THE PEAK OF THE HEAT/HUMIDITY SHOULD
OCCUR SUN AHEAD OF THAT WAVE. AFTER THE COOL DOWN EARLY IN THE
WEEK...TEMPS SHOULD RETURN TO AROUND NORMAL. AS FOR PCPN...SCT
SHRA/TSTM POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE THRU FRI...THEN DRY WEATHER WILL
RETURN SAT AS THE NRN PORTION OF THE WRN RIDGE IS FORCED EASTWARD BY
THE SHORTWAVE TROF SWINGING THRU THE NRN ROCKIES. THAT SHORTWAVE
WILL BRING A RISK OF PCPN SUN/MON...THOUGH WITH THE MAIN ENERGY
LIFTING ENE...PCPN COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SOME FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
STRONG TO SVR STORMS AT SOME POINT WED/THU IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
SECOND WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE W AND ITS ASSOCIATED FAIRLY VIGOROUS
SFC LOW FOR AUG.
BEGINNING FRI...COLD FRONT WILL DROP S ACROSS UPPER MI IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. MAY SEE A
FEW SHRA/TSTMS IN THE MORNING WITH THE FRONT...BUT ACROSS THE
S...FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BEGIN TO BETTER COINCIDE WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE/INSTABILITY BUILD UP. WITH MLCAPES REACHING AT LEAST
1000-1500J/KG...AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE DUE TO LAKE BREEZE...TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE EARLY IN THE AFTN. TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CRITICAL. IF FRONT PASSES EARLY IN THE AFTN OVER THE S...TSTM
POTENTIAL WILL BE LESS THAN IF THE FRONT PASSES IN THE LATE AFTN.
WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 25KT...SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD SVR STORM IF FROPA IS LATER IN THE
AFTN. IT WILL BE A WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S.
LIGHT WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO COOLER CONDITIONS N...BUT
ONLY SLIGHTLY.
DRY WEATHER WILL SET IN FOR FRI NIGHT/SAT UNDER RISING HEIGHTS WITH
MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDING NE INTO THE UPPER LAKES. SAT WILL BE A
WARM/HUMID DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE 80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
SHORTWAVE TROF MOVING ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES SAT WILL LIFT ENE INTO
NRN ONTARIO SUN. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH WRN UPPER
MI LATE IN THE AFTN AS GFS WHICH HAD BEEN FASTEST WITH THE FRONT HAS
SLOWED TO BE MORE INLINE WITH THE GEM/ECMWF. WITH BEST HEIGHT
FALLS/DEEP LAYER FORCING PASSING TO THE N...CONVECTION ALONG/AHEAD
OF FRONT AS IT PASSES PROBABLY WON`T BE MORE THAN ISOLD TO SCT.
HOWEVER...AS UPPER JET TRANSLATES E AND BETTER POSITIONS RIGHT
ENTRANCE UPPER DIVERGENCE OVERTOP FRONT SUN NIGHT...EXPECT CHC OF
SHRA/TSTMS TO INCREASE SUN NIGHT. WITH FRONT NOT ARRIVING UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY...SUN WILL BE A VERY WARM...HUMID DAY AS 850MB THERMAL
RIDGE WITH 850MB TEMPS OF AT LEAST 20C SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...AND LIKELY REACHING 90F AT SOME LOCATIONS. FAIRLY
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTIER WINDS...PROBABLY 20-
25MPH TO PERHAPS 30MPH AT TIMES.
HEALTHY COOLING (AND LOWERING OF DWPTS) WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR
MON AS 850MB TEMPS FALL BACK TO 6 TO 10C. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S W AND N NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MID 70S SCTNRL/SE. UPPER
DIVERGENCE UNDER RIGHT ENTRANCE OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER LAKES TO NRN/CNTRL QUEBEC MAY HELP SHRA/TSTMS LINGER INTO MON
MORNING OVER THE SCNTRL AND E EVEN THOUGH SFC FRONT SHOULD BE JUST S
AND E OF THAT AREA AT 12Z MON.
DRY WEATHER WILL THEN BE THE RULE MON AFTN INTO TUE AS SFC HIGH PRES
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES. WITH SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER UNDER 0.5 INCHES...TEMPS MON NIGHT WILL LIKELY
FALL INTO THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR WITH TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE LWR 40S.
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ROUNDS OF SHRA/TSTMS AND POSSIBLE HVY RAINFALL.
INITIALLY...STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF WAVE
WILL SUPPORT SHRA/TSTMS SPREADING INTO UPPER MI WED/WED NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
STEADY SW WINDS ABOVE THE SFC JUST UNDER LLWS CRITERIA WL DRAW MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT AND
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS AT THE TAF SITES BY 09Z THRU THIS
AFTN...WHEN THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP WL DIMINISH THE PCPN
CHCS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE SHOWERS AT THE SITES IS
NOT HI ENUF TO VARY FM THE VCSH SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS EXCEPT AT
IWD...WHERE RECENT RADAR TRENDS WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS IN
THE 09-11Z TIME. ALTHOUGH A HEAVIER SHRA COULD BRING AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS...THE WARMTH/RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL
SUPPORT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NE AND
E LAKE SUPERIOR...CLOSER TO THE COLDEST WATER AS WARM HUMID AIR
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OVER A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR INITIALLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE HIGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND MN THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE E FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO
AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO
QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR A HIGH TO MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...ROLFSON
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HEALTHY SHORTWAVE DIGGING SE WITH 850MB THETA-E ADVECTION EARLY WILL
HELP SUPPORT ONGOING CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN
AND CANADA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOOK FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO
CLIP THE W CWA BEFORE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE 21/00Z
NAM AND 21/03Z HRRR SEEM TO HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHAT WOULD
BE A MORE LIKELY SCENARIO...WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN BRINGING THE
BULK OF PRECIP OVER THE KEWEENAW AND LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE TRENDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN POSSIBLE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM THE LAKE SUPERIOR STABILIZATION. DESPITE THE
ONSHORE FLOW N CENTRAL AND E...THERE WILL BE LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT. EXPECT A VERY WARM DAY TODAY...CLOSE TO THE RECORD AT NWS MQT
WHICH IS 89 SET BACK IN 1970. MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR
ALL BUT THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...AND E OF A LINE FROM
MUNISING TO RAPID RIVER...EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN THE
AREA. PW VALUES MAXING OUT AROUND 1.6IN W TO E TODAY WILL FALL TO
AROUND 1-1.2IN CWA WIDE BY 06Z. WITH THE MAIN SFC TROUGH SET UP OVER
THE W HALF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND WARM AIR FULLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE
CWA...LOWS IN THE 60S LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET...WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEARING FROM THE NW.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
A COUPLE OF TROUGHS/COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CWA IN NW FLOW
ALOFT...ONE WILL BE MOVING OUT EARLY THU NIGHT AND THE OTHER WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. CONVECTION WITH THE FIRST
TROUGH/FRONT WILL BE DIMINISHING EARLY THU NIGHT. COVERAGE LATE THU
NIGHT INTO FRI WILL DEPEND ON TIMING/INSTABILITY...BUT ISOLATED-
SCATTERED COVERAGE SEEMS REASONABLE. WHILE THU SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN
THE 80S TO AROUND 90...FRI WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
80S.
HIGHS TEMPS SAT WILL BE SIMILAR TO SUN OVERALL. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA SAT...MAKING FOR DRY CONDITIONS SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.
SUN INTO MON WILL SEE INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES AS A SFC LOW MOVES
ACROSS ONTARIO...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING IS
FAIRLY WELL AGREED ON BY CURRENT MODEL RUNS...BUT RUN TO RUN
VARIATIONS ARE REDUCING CONFIDENCE IN TIMING. TIMING WILL DETERMINE
SFC TEMPS AND PRECIP COVERAGE/INSTABILITY. IF THE FRONT IS
SLOWER...ANOTHER VERY WARM AND MUGGY DAY WILL RESULT ON SUN AS 850MB
TEMPS LOOK TO BE AOA 20C. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE DOES LOOK
BEST OVER THE CENTRAL AND ERN CWA.
LATE MON INTO TUE LOOKS DRY AND COOLER /EVEN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS/ AS
A SFC HIGH MOVES OVER THE AREA. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY LOOKING AT THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK AS MODEL SUGGEST A STRONGER TROUGH/SFC
LOW MOVING INTO REGION AT SOME POINT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
STEADY SW WINDS ABOVE THE SFC JUST UNDER LLWS CRITERIA WL DRAW MORE
HUMID AIR INTO THE UPR LKS AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APRCHG COLD FNT AND
SUPPORT SOME SHOWERS/PERHAPS A TS AT THE TAF SITES BY 09Z THRU THIS
AFTN...WHEN THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF LK SUP WL DIMINISH THE PCPN
CHCS. CONFIDENCE IN THE OCCURRENCE OF THESE SHOWERS AT THE SITES IS
NOT HI ENUF TO VARY FM THE VCSH SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS TAFS EXCEPT AT
IWD...WHERE RECENT RADAR TRENDS WARRANT AN EXPLICIT MENTION OF TS IN
THE 09-11Z TIME. ALTHOUGH A HEAVIER SHRA COULD BRING AT LEAST TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS...THE WARMTH/RELATIVE DRYNESS OF THE LLVLS WL
SUPPORT PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 212 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OVER MAINLY NE AND
E LAKE SUPERIOR...CLOSER TO THE COLDEST WATER AS WARM HUMID AIR
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. WINDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 30KTS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GUSTS NEARING 30KTS OVER A FEW OF THE HIGHER PLATFORMS
OVER W LAKE SUPERIOR INITIALLY THIS MORNING OUT OF THE SW...AND
AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
EXPECT THE HIGH OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY TO DRIFT OFF THE EAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AND MN THIS
MORNING WILL SWEEP SE ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. IN ITS
WAKE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY. AS THIS HIGH DRIFTS SE INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...A LOW WILL MOVE E FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO
AND TO NEAR JAMES BAY LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE E INTO
QUEBEC ON MONDAY...AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS FRONT...LOOK FOR A HIGH TO MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA ON MONDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
153 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING. A WARM FRONT WILL BRING
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96 VERY LATE TONIGHT. FAIR WEATHER
WILL BRIEFLY RETURN THURSDAY BUT A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
INTO OUR REGION AND THEN STALL OUT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD.
FAIR AND HOT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1103 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST AROUND 1030PM TO INCREASE THE 30 PCT CHANCE
AREA FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI.
SPECIFICALLY...NOW WE HAVE 30 POPS THROUGH THE NORTHERN 3 TIERS OF
COUNTIES. ALSO ADDED A 20 PCT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE BULK
OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THE HRRR FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW HAS BEEN
INDICATING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WORKING SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD SOUTH HAVEN WHERE CONDITIONS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DRY.
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORMING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE
RETURN AS RIDGING IS BEING SHUNTED OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
MOISTURE RETURN IS ALOFT...AND IS BEST SEEN AROUND 850MB/S. 850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT...THE LLJ AND MOST UNSTABLE CAPE FIELDS ALL
SHOW A PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WORKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
OUR AREA TONIGHT. EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. NOT EXPECTING STRONG CONVECTION...BUT
THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE DETERMINING POTENTIAL FOR
ANY CONVECTION VERY LATE TONIGHT AND THEN FROM LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
FAIR WX WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTN/EVE AND WE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF LATEST SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE AND
RGNL RADAR TRENDS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE U.P. AND FAR NORTHERN LWR MI THIS EVENING. THOSE
WILL MOVE SSE AND COULD AFFECT AREAS WELL TO THE NORTH TO NE OF
KGRR BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z THUR DUE TO ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE FROM A
A WARM FRONT IN THE AREA.
SW WINDS WILL RAMP UP SOMEWHAT THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MOST OF THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRY
BEFORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
OUR FCST AREA LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AS A
RESULT OF INCREASING ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS H8 LI/S FALL TO -2
TO -4 AND IN AN INCREASINGLY HUMID AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AS DEW
POINT VALUES RISE THROUGH THE 60S. CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
ALSO BE AIDED BY A 35 TO 40 KT LLJ AND RATHER STRONG 1000-850 MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z FRI.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED CHC OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY WITH
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND WITH A VERY HUMID
AND INCREASINGLY HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. POTENTIAL FOR SOME
STRONGER CONVECTION FRIDAY WILL BE LARGELY CONTINGENT ON HOW MUCH
DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPS. HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT LOOKS LOW DUE TO WEAK WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT/WEAK
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LACK OF STRONGER FORCING. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
OR STORMS INTO FRIDAY EVENING WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AND END
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS UPPER TROUGHING
PERSISTS OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS...WHICH TEMPORARILY FOLDS OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
THAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DECIDED TO DROP POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST
FORECAST AREA EARLY IN THE DAY.
HEIGHT FALLS OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 153 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
OUR MAIN FOCUS WITH THE 06Z FCSTS IS ON TWO CHCS OF RAIN...ONE
EARLY THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER MID-LATE EVENING TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS FORMED TOWARD KCAD EARLIER AND ARE NOW
MOVING SSE. SOME OF THESE ARE EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND MAKE A RUN
AT KLAN AND KJXN AROUND 08-10Z.
ONCE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE OUT BY 12Z...WE SHOULD SEE FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER MOST OF THE DAY TODAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT A
BIT...AND WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH THE AREA THEN LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING THE CHC FOR SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KMKG AND KGRR BEFORE THE END OF THE FCST
PERIOD. SOME LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY IF THE TERMINALS ARE
DIRECTLY AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
FAIRLY MINIMAL WIND AND WAVE ACTION IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RAMP UP ON
THURSDAY CAUSING WAVE HEIGHTS TO BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FEET. HOWEVER
WINDS AND WAVES SHOULD STAY JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THURSDAY IN THE SW FLOW WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...OSTUNO
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...LAURENS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
315 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS
(HRRR/RAP) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IN THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP.
HAVEN/T SEE STRONG CU DEVELOPMENT YET BUT DO BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR
AND THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN HAVE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THE HRRR DEPICTION IS A BIT
QUICK TIMING WISE AND OPTED TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A COUPLE HOURS.
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE...ALTHOUGH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCE A BIT BUT WANE THEM IN THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SOME HINTS OF SOME MORE LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION IN THE COLUMBUS AREA WITH MID LEVEL SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DRIFTING SOUTH. NOT TAKING THAT OFF THE TABLE YET AND HAVE KEPT LATE
NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST...AND LINGERED THEM INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE IN FULL FORCE BY AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL MID AUGUST DAY.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE SOUTH BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS TODAY...A DAY WE HAVE A FEW PLACES GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WITH HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING. EITHER WAY THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT TO THE WEST AND HAS A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF WOULD
INDICATE THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY FOR THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT THURSDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS HAVE TRIED NOT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL START THE FORECAST PERIOD OUT WITH GUSTS TO
20KTS AT TIMES. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH BOTH KEAR AND
KGRI. COVERAGE WILL BE A MIT AND MISS AND HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
VICINITY MENTION. THAT PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH BY
ABOUT MIDNIGHT WITH JUST SOME MID CLOUDS REMAINING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
627 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH SHERIDAN COUNTY AT 08Z WOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NCNTL AND SWRN NEB FROM ROUGHLY 22Z
THROUGH 03Z. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...JUST 30 TO 40 KTS AT H300MB
AND BULK SHEAR TO 400MB IS 30 KTS OR LESS SUGGESTING A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. MUCH OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
WOULD THEN BE DERIVED FROM CAPE WHICH COULD VARY SIGNIFICANT AS
SOME MODELS MIX VERY DEEPLY AND OTHER DO NOT. THE ECM HAS THE
RIGHT IDEA KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MUCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG. NOTE THE BUNKERS RIGHT MOVER
STORM MOTION IN THE RAP AND THE NAM VARIES FROM 345/10 TO 020/10 KT
WHICH SUGGESTS THERE COULD BACK BUILDING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THE STORMS DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONT DROPPING STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW STRATUS FORMING BUT THE
SREF SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR VALENTINE...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS SD WITH LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S FOLLOWS A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED DETERMINISTIC MODELS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE TOO COOL. MIXING MAY
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPS FRIDAY SEASONALLY WARM
WITH MOST AREAS AROUND 90. MODELS KEEP THE AREA INBETWEEN RIDGE
RIDING WAVES SO EXPECT A DRY DAY. CHANGES START SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ALL AREAS INTO THE 90S. FORECAST
FOLLOWS A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH MAY BE UNDERDONE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DRY LINE. MODELS GENERALLY
KEEP THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...HOWEVER IF THE
DRY LINE CAN PUSH FURTHER EAST...THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE OF NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEB.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE WILL FOLLOW
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT AND GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AID IN SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE
CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY.
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE RIDGE IS
FLATTENED AND FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL. A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 80S...AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
MORE CLOUDS OR PUSH TO AROUND 90 WITH MORE AFTERNOON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SWRN SD THIS MORNING WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NCNTL AND SWRN NEB FROM
ROUGHLY 22Z THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED. THE SREF AND
SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...GENERALLY FROM KLBF TO KANW AND EAST. THE FORECAST IS
FOR VFR GIVEN THE FORECAST COVERAGE BY THE NAM AND THE LOW
PROBABILITY SHOWN BY THE SREF.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
358 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MODELS ARE IN RATHER UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH SHERIDAN COUNTY AT 08Z WOULD BE THE CATALYST FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS NCNTL AND SWRN NEB FROM ROUGHLY 22Z
THROUGH 03Z. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...JUST 30 TO 40 KTS AT H300MB
AND BULK SHEAR TO 400MB IS 30 KTS OR LESS SUGGESTING A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION. MUCH OF THE INTENSITY OF THE STORMS
WOULD THEN BE DERIVED FROM CAPE WHICH COULD VARY SIGNIFICANT AS
SOME MODELS MIX VERY DEEPLY AND OTHER DO NOT. THE ECM HAS THE
RIGHT IDEA KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 WHICH
WOULD PRODUCE MUCAPE AROUND 3500 J/KG. NOTE THE BUNKERS RIGHT MOVER
STORM MOTION IN THE RAP AND THE NAM VARIES FROM 345/10 TO 020/10 KT
WHICH SUGGESTS THERE COULD BACK BUILDING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AS THE STORMS DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.
GIVEN THE WEAK WINDS ALOFT THE STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN AND
SLOWLY DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE MID TO LATE
EVENING. THE MODELS SHOW A WEAK FRONT DROPPING STATIONARY ACROSS
THE FCST AREA. NONE OF THE MODELS SHOW STRATUS FORMING BUT THE
SREF SUGGESTS SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TONIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. MID 90S ARE POSSIBLE
NEAR VALENTINE...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW ACROSS SD WITH LOWER 90S
ELSEWHERE. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 60S FOLLOWS A BLEND OF BIAS
CORRECTED DETERMINISTIC MODELS. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD BE TOO COOL. MIXING MAY
INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY THE RIDGE HOLDS STRONG ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING TROUGH/COLD FRONT. TEMPS FRIDAY SEASONALLY WARM
WITH MOST AREAS AROUND 90. MODELS KEEP THE AREA INBETWEEN RIDGE
RIDING WAVES SO EXPECT A DRY DAY. CHANGES START SATURDAY AS A
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS THE AREA. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH ALL AREAS INTO THE 90S. FORECAST
FOLLOWS A MODEL BLEND FOR HIGHS...WHICH MAY BE UNDERDONE. THE KEY
WILL BE THE PLACEMENT/STRENGTH OF THE DRY LINE. MODELS GENERALLY
KEEP THE DRY LINE ACROSS THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...HOWEVER IF THE
DRY LINE CAN PUSH FURTHER EAST...THE MAV MOS GUIDANCE OF NEAR
TRIPLE DIGITS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR PARTS OF WESTERN NEB.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW CWA BY LATE SATURDAY AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CHANCE WILL FOLLOW
NEAR THE FRONT AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. SHEAR ALONG THE FRONT AND GOOD INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT SHOULD AID IN SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE
CLOUDS AND STORMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY.
POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR. THE RIDGE IS
FLATTENED AND FLOW WILL BE MORE ZONAL. A TRAIN OF DISTURBANCES
WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS.
TEMPS FALL INTO THE 80S...AND COULD HOLD IN THE UPPER 70S WITH
MORE CLOUDS OR PUSH TO AROUND 90 WITH MORE AFTERNOON SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
FOR BOTH THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...EXPECT SCATTERED HIGH
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS AROUND 25000 FT AGL. BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN INCREASED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AS A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE GREATEST AT
THE KVTN TERMINAL FROM 21Z THURSDAY THROUGH 03Z FRIDAY...AND AT
THE KLBF TERMINAL FROM 22Z THURSDAY THROUGH 04Z FRIDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
210 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...GOOD MONSOON PUSH WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION FOR MOST
OF THE CWA BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE THEY DECREASE
BY THE WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A 500MB LOW WITH A
70KT JET MAX NEAR THE NV/CA BORDER IS PULLING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST THE CWA. THIS HAS PUSHED THE NV
"DRY LINE" TO JUST EAST OF WMC. THE HIGHER SFC MOISTURE STILL
EXIST ACROSS EASTERN NV WHERE PW VALUES OF 1+ INCH AND 50+ DEW
POINTS ARE FAIRLY COMMON. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL IN EASTERN
NV; HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WARMING OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN NV...INDICATED BY THE LKN MORNING
SOUNDING. THINKING IS FIRST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN FURTHER WEST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE THIS WARMING IS WEAKER AND CAN BE QUICKLY
OVERCOME. ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NV WILL OCCUR BUT MORE ON THE
ISOLATED SIDE. THE HRRR AND RAP13 AGREE WITH THIS THINKING SO
BUMPED POPS UP IN LANDER...EASTERN HUMDOLDT...WESTERN ELKO...AND
NW NYE COUNTIES. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WHETHER THESE WILL WET OR DRY.
ANY ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NV WILL BE WET...HOWEVER ONCE WEST OF AN
BATTLE MTN TO EUREKA LINE...THEY COULD BE DRY OR MOVING AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE TO LIMIT THE WETING POTENTIAL. OVERALL ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW IN EASTERN ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES NE AND DRIVES THE DRY
LINE FURTHER EAST. ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD BE
DRY ON THE WESTERN EDGES. BY SATURDAY...DRY LINE IS PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH ONLY PORTION OF EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY
EXPECTED TO SEE CONVECTION.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WITH ASSOCIATED JET
MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALL THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HUMBODLT AND NW NYE COUNTIES THE WORST
(30-35KT GUSTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN). WINDS RELAX ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TODAY
(90S) AND FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA TOMORROW. A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH
TEMPS IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AREAS DUE TO WIND DIRECTION CHANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PORTRAYING A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS
ARE NEGOTIATING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. IF THE GFS MODEL PANS
OUT...THERE COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AND A SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE LKN
CWFA. HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF MODEL RINGS TRUE...THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND WITH LESS INTENSITY...THUS ONLY BRUSHING THE
SILVER STATE WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SETTLING ON A GENERAL TROUGH SCENARIO AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. EITHER SOLUTION WILL AT LEAST BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES IN THE DAYTIME BY TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSSIBLY AFFECT ALL SITES TODAY...LESS LIKELY FOR KWMC AND KTPH. ON
FRIDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST TO ONLY
AFFECT KELY AND KEKO.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS DRY LIGHTNING IN
467...468...WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15-20KT IN THESE AREAS SO WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS WIND/RH IN
WESTERN HUMDOBLDT COUNTY. CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HIT IN THIS
AREA BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND RH SHOULD DROP BELOW 15%
WITH POOR RECOVER OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...DRY THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS
ARE OVER 469 AND EASTERN 454...WHILE HOLD POTENTIAL EXIST
(DEPENDING ON TODAY`S LIGHTNING COVERAGE) IN 468 AND EASTERN 467
WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS HOLD OVER THREAT CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IN
470 AND 455 WILL REMAIN WET WITH INCREASE COVERAGE TOMORROW.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
85/92/92/85
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
135 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
A RETURN OF MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 135 PM EDT THURSDAY...FINALLY GETTING SOME WEAK CONVECTION
DEVELOPING FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED THUS
ONCE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND DAYTIME
HEATING COMES TO AN END...THE SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. GOING
FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL AND ONLY REAL TWEAK WAS TO ADJUST
SKY COVER TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRIDAY
MORNING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES SO DOES THE INSTABILITY BUT ONLY MARGINALLY. GIVEN THE
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR I DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN A
FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX`S GENERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
HOWEVER WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
AUGUST I`M NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. NONETHELESS
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE
A NEW AIR MASS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY TEMPS WILL NEARLY BE A
REPEAT OF FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE POTENTIAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS INDICATE BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SUN/MON. RAINFALL
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMUM AND ANTICIPATE FULL HEATING WITH GENERAL
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID 60S
DEW POINTS...THUS MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE SOME SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS
ACROSS NRN NY 06-12Z TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 45-60 POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING MAX.
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAINFALL...THOUGH COOLER WITH EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
SERN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-16Z...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AT SLK/MSS/MPV. GENERAL TREND
IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AFTER
16Z...BUT MAY SEE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR THE MTNS
WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN SLK TAF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED NOCTURNAL
FOG WITH LIFR EXPECTED SLK/MPV AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
947 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY BRINGING
A RETURN OF MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A
WARMING TREND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE UPPER 80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 947 AM EDT THURSDAY...OVERALL FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE WITH
THE ONLY TWEAKS BEING THE ADDITION OF A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING...WHICH WILL ALSO LIMIT THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. HAVE MOVED THE SHOWER POTENTIAL TO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRIDAY
MORNING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES SO DOES THE INSTABILITY BUT ONLY MARGINALLY. GIVEN THE
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR I DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX`S GENERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
HOWEVER WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
AUGUST I`M NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. NONETHELESS
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE
A NEW AIR MASS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY TEMPS WILL NEARLY BE A
REPEAT OF FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE POTENTIAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS INDICATE BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SUN/MON. RAINFALL
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMUM AND ANTICIPATE FULL HEATING WITH GENERAL
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID 60S
DEW POINTS...THUS MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE SOME SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS
ACROSS NRN NY 06-12Z TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 45-60 POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING MAX.
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAINFALL...THOUGH COOLER WITH EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
SERN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-16Z...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AT SLK/MSS/MPV. GENERAL TREND
IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AFTER
16Z...BUT MAY SEE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR THE MTNS
WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN SLK TAF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED NOCTURNAL
FOG WITH LIFR EXPECTED SLK/MPV AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
740 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING A
RETURN OF MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE AS THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROVIDES ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP
GENERALLY ALONG NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IN NORTHERN VERMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES TOWARDS
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASED 1000-500MB
THICKNESS I DONT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SO I
CONTINUED JUST THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO I EXPECT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
MOVING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRIDAY
MORNING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES SO DOES THE INSTABILITY BUT ONLY MARGINALLY. GIVEN THE
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR I DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX`S GENERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
HOWEVER WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
AUGUST I`M NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. NONETHELESS
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE
A NEW AIRMASS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY TEMPS WILL NEARLY BE A
REPEAT OF FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE POTENTIAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS INDICATE BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SUN/MON. RAINFALL
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMUM AND ANTICIPATE FULL HEATING WITH GENERAL
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID 60S
DEWPOINTS...THUS MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE SOME SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS
ACROSS NRN NY 06-12Z TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 45-60 POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING MAX.
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAINFALL...THOUGH COOLER WITH EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
SERN ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-16Z...WITH
LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING AT SLK/MSS/MPV. GENERAL TREND
IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AFTER
16Z...BUT MAY SEE LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS PERSIST NEAR THE MTNS
WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN SLK TAF DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED NOCTURNAL
FOG WITH LIFR EXPECTED SLK/MPV AFTER 08Z.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
719 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING A
RETURN OF MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 712 AM EDT THURSDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE AS THERE ARE A FEW WEAK ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS ARE IN LINE WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS SO NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED. STILL EXPECT ISOLATED/
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PROVIDES ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS TO POP UP
GENERALLY ALONG NORTHERN NEW YORK AND IN NORTHERN VERMONT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AS A 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES TOWARDS
THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
LIFT TO GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASED 1000-500MB
THICKNESS I DONT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SO I
CONTINUED JUST THE MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE
FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO I EXPECT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
MOVING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRIDAY
MORNING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES SO DOES THE INSTABILITY BUT ONLY MARGINALLY. GIVEN THE
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR I DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX`S GENERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
HOWEVER WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
AUGUST I`M NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. NONETHELESS
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE
A NEW AIRMASS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY TEMPS WILL NEARLY BE A
REPEAT OF FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE POTENTIAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS INDICATE BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SUN/MON. RAINFALL
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMUM AND ANTICIPATE FULL HEATING WITH GENERAL
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID 60S
DEWPOINTS...THUS MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE SOME SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS
ACROSS NRN NY 06-12Z TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 45-60 POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING MAX.
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAINFALL...THOUGH COOLER WITH EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...BUT LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK
AND POSSIBLY AT MSS/RUT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z. GENERAL
TREND IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 15Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER...BUT LOW
PROBABILITY DOESN/T WARRANT INCLUSION IN AREA TAFS ATTM. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
352 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BRINGING A
RETURN OF MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE REGION. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A WARMING TREND OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION TODAY AS A 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES TOWARDS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. AS A PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THERE COULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO
GENERATE A FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
INCREASING 500MB HEIGHTS AND INCREASED 1000-500MB THICKNESS I DONT
EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS SO I CONTINUED JUST THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA DRY AIR WILL ENTRAIN INTO THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS SO I EXPECT THE CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE
MOVING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/ EARLY EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS TODAY WILL
WARM INTO THE MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 348 AM EDT THURSDAY...EXPECT A QUIET EVENING ON THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. FRIDAY
MORNING THE SOUTHERLY FLOW QUICKLY INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. AS THE MOISTURE
INCREASES SO DOES THE INSTABILITY BUT ONLY MARGINALLY. GIVEN THE
WEAK LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL SHEAR I DONT EXPECT MORE THAN A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX`S GENERATE
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WEAK CORFIDI
VECTORS EXPECT SOME OF THE SHOWERS TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL RATES
HOWEVER WITH THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS STILL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
AUGUST I`M NOT EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EVENT. NONETHELESS
HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PONDING OF WATER IN LOW
LYING AREAS AND IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE.
AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE
A NEW AIRMASS MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
SURFACE HIGH BUILD IN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY. EXPECT DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S WITH THE
OVERNIGHT LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. AS THE FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY TEMPS WILL NEARLY BE A
REPEAT OF FRIDAY IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE POTENTIAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS INDICATE BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SUN/MON. RAINFALL
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMUM AND ANTICIPATE FULL HEATING WITH GENERAL
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID 60S
DEWPOINTS...THUS MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE SOME SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS
ACROSS NRN NY 06-12Z TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 45-60 POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING MAX.
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAINFALL...THOUGH COOLER WITH EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...BUT LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK
AND POSSIBLY AT MSS/RUT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z. GENERAL
TREND IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 15Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER...BUT LOW
PROBABILITY DOESN/T WARRANT INCLUSION IN AREA TAFS ATTM. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...DEAL
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
334 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND
SEE SOME SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE 850 MB TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CAUSING SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND SO I WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER I DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO I REMOVED FOG FROM THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1055 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ADDISON
AND NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS
CATIVITY TO COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT
AND THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE
LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY, WHILE A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. 500MB HTS APPEAR TO INCREASE, SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WITH LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND PWATS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE AREA, EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANQUIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING SBCAPES OVER 1500J/KG POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OVER NRN NY. BEST LIFT/LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL ARRIVE IN
NWRN NY/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY, WHEN INSTABILITY
STARTS TO WANE. SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT AND WEAKENING LIFT SLOWLY TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 333 AM EDT THURSDAY...MAIN HEADLINE FOR THE EXTENDED WILL
BE POTENTIAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS INDICATE BROAD MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AND BUILDING 500MB HEIGHTS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH 850MB TEMPS OF +18C TO +19C SUN/MON. RAINFALL
CHANCES APPEAR MINIMUM AND ANTICIPATE FULL HEATING WITH GENERAL
MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. EXPECTATION IS FOR MID 60S
DEWPOINTS...THUS MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPR 60S FOR MOST SECTIONS FOR
SUNDAY NIGHT.
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MAY
SEE SOME SHOWER/ISOLD THUNDER ACTIVITY DEVELOP LATER MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON TUESDAY. HAVE INDICATED 30-40 POPS
ACROSS NRN NY 06-12Z TUESDAY...INCREASING TO 45-60 POPS AREAWIDE
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON TUESDAY. COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME GIVEN TIMING
UNCERTAINTY OF FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH RESPECT TO DAYTIME HEATING MAX.
SHOULD STILL SEE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ACROSS THE VT VALLEYS
ON TUESDAY BEFORE RAINFALL...THOUGH COOLER WITH EARLIER FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS NRN NY BASED ON CURRENT INDICATIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
SHOULD SEE CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER/MORE
SEASONABLE CONDITIONS AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY EXPECTED IN THE UPR 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...BUT LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK
AND POSSIBLY AT MSS/RUT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z. GENERAL
TREND IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 15Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER...BUT LOW
PROBABILITY DOESN/T WARRANT INCLUSION IN AREA TAFS ATTM. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND
SEE SOME SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 134 AM EDT THURSDAY...THE 850 MB TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING
TOWARDS THE EAST AND DRIER AIR IS MOVING IN ALOFT. THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS CAUSING SOME STRATUS TO DEVELOP AND SO I WENT AHEAD
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. GIVEN THE
CLOUD COVER I DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT SO I REMOVED FOG FROM THE GRIDS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1055 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE
REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ADDISON
AND NORTHERN RUTLAND COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS
CATIVITY TO COME TO AN END OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT
AND THE VALLEYS OF THE ADIRONDACKS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE
LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT
IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY, WHILE A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. 500MB HTS APPEAR TO INCREASE, SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WITH LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND PWATS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE AREA, EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANQUIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING SBCAPES OVER 1500J/KG POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OVER NRN NY. BEST LIFT/LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL ARRIVE IN
NWRN NY/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY, WHEN INSTABILITY
STARTS TO WANE. SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT AND WEAKENING LIFT SLOWLY TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH IT...FEEL THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS
AROUND FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...BUT LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK
AND POSSIBLY AT MSS/RUT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z. GENERAL
TREND IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 15Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER...BUT LOW
PROBABILITY DOESN/T WARRANT INCLUSION IN AREA TAFS ATTM. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
129 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY, BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY AND
SEE SOME SUN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW
MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL SEE A WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
80S OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1055 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING MOST
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN ADDISON AND NORTHERN RUTLAND
COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING THIS CATIVITY TO COME TO AN END
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
THE USUAL FOG PRONE VALLEYS OF VERMONT AND THE VALLEYS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS. DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND THE LATEST GFS LAMP GUIDANCE
HAVE RAISED MIN TEMPERATURES UP OVERNIGHT IN THE ADIRONDACKS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY ON THURSDAY, WHILE A SHORTWAVE WILL
TRAVERSE ACROSS THE REGION, POSSIBLY PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFT FOR A
FEW SHOWERS. 500MB HTS APPEAR TO INCREASE, SO HAVE KEPT POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY EASTWARD. WITH LACK OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AND PWATS OF AN INCH OR LESS OVER THE AREA, EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES, BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TOWARDS THURSDAY NIGHT.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 70S IN THE VALLEYS.
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE TRANQUIL FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT, BUT
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE
ON OUR DOORSTEP TO THE WEST FRIDAY MORNING WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. INSTABILITY INCREASES FRIDAY DURING THE
DAY WITH THE GFS INDICATING SBCAPES OVER 1500J/KG POSSIBLE, MAINLY
OVER NRN NY. BEST LIFT/LOW LEVEL DEFORMATION AXIS WILL ARRIVE IN
NWRN NY/ST LAWRENCE VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY, WHEN INSTABILITY
STARTS TO WANE. SHOWERS WITH A RUMBLE OF THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE WEAK FRONT AND WEAKENING LIFT SLOWLY TRAVERSE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM NW TO SE. PWATS INCREASE TO OVER 1.5 INCHES FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MAY SEE SOME HEAVIER SHOWERS. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 342 PM EDT TUESDAY...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG
WITH IT...FEEL THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY BRINGING NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE
AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE SLOWER MOVING AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS
AROUND FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER
THAN SEASONAL NORMALS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH ROTATING SEWD FROM
QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL MAINTAIN BKN-OVC SKIES THROUGH 14-15Z THIS
MORNING. GENERALLY VFR CEILINGS...BUT LOCALLY MVFR CEILINGS AT SLK
AND POSSIBLY AT MSS/RUT FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH 12Z. GENERAL
TREND IN RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS IS TO SHOW IMPROVING CEILINGS AND
PARTIAL CLEARING BY 15Z. WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER TROUGH
PASSAGE...MAY SEE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER...BUT LOW
PROBABILITY DOESN/T WARRANT INCLUSION IN AREA TAFS ATTM. SURFACE
WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT W-NW
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND GENERALLY W-SW DURING THE BALANCE OF THE
DAYLIGHT PERIOD.
OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BRING INTERVALS OF MVFR OR
BRIEF IFR WITH RAINFALL (MAINLY FRIDAY AFTN INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVE).
LOCALIZED FOG POSSIBLE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY
AREAS SEEING RAINFALL.
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ISOLD SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KGM
NEAR TERM...WGH
SHORT TERM...KGM
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
735 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
ACTUALLY OCCURRED UNDERNEATH THE COMMA...WHERE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON MSAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS IS
WHERE THE CAP WAS WEAKEST BASED ON THE MORNING UPPER-AIR
SOUNDINGS... AND CLOSER TO WHAT THE NAM WAS PORTRAYING IN ITS QPF.
WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WHILE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION... THOUGH JUST BARELY AT KGSO...THE NAM ERODES ANY CAP
AND THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR MAYBE
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON ANY ISOLATED SHOWER SHOULD DIMINISH...WITH
AREAS TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT BEING THE LAST TO HAVE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER END. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE THICKNESSES AND THE THERMAL
WIND IS SUCH THAT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST... SO WHATEVER DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO LINGER
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST MAY MAKE IT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OR
GENERATE ON SOME REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S UNDER AN AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
GUIDANCE AVERAGE EXPECTING AREAS OF GOOD CLEARING LATE AND SOME
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S AS OF THIS WRITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
LATELY IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE BASED ON ITS
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND QPF...WHILE THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY
MORE UNSTABLE...ERODING ANY CAP DURING THE DAY...WITH SMATTERINGS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING QPF. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR THE 12Z RUN...AND
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOME
DEFERENCE TO THE NAM IS WARRANTED ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT...WITH
LITTLE OVERALL FORCING...DEEP CONVECTION TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED. THE
NAM AND GFS AGREE ON GOOD 850MB UVV OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 40
AND 85...WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND K INDICES
WHILE THE 300MB WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASE IS NOT GREAT...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS CERTAINLY LIMITED. LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS LIMITED TO MOSTLY A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ANY MID-LEVEL WAVE IS WEAK AS WELL. GFS QPF IS
COMPLETELY DRY...WHEREAS THE NAM SUGGESTS BY 00Z SUNDAY ISOLATED
POCKETS OF QPF ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 DRIFTING SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL NOTE MORE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AREAS LAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...87 TO 92. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OVERALL...SLIGHTLY MORE
NOTICEABLE WITH MIXING LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERY OUTFLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND.
WAVE TRAIN OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL NUDGE THE WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...SHEARING OUT ALONG THE
WAY. RESULTANT DPVA ACROSS THE AREA MAY PROVE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN IN
POPS/CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
AS TROUGHING ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD
BOOST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND MARK A RETURN TO
MAINLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 735 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH EARLY SAT EVENING. THE ONLY
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE A RISK FOR MVFR FOG 07Z-12Z TONIGHT/SAT
MORNING... MAINLY AT FAY/RWI... WITH A LESSER CHANCE AT RDU... AND
AN EVEN LOWER CHANCE AT INT/GSO WHERE THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRIER.
ISOLATED LATE-DAY STORMS LATE SAT AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING MAY
BRING LOCAL SUB-VFR CONDITIONS... BUT THE CHANCE OF STORMS AT/NEAR
ANY TAF SITE IS TOO SMALL TO MENTION... AND WOULD LIKELY BE
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE.
LOOKING BEYOND 00Z SUN (SAT EVENING)... THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SUB-VFR FOG LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE... VFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE... BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS LATE MON THROUGH TUE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
208 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...
DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED AND RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA
OF UPSTREAM SCT TO BKN ALTOCUMULUS IN A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PER 00Z RAOB
DATA - MOST NOTABLE AT RNK. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS VA AND NC IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THAT WILL
INTERRUPT OTHERWISE EXCELLENT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PEAK OF THE
PERSEID METEOR SHOWER.
INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR HAS INSISTED FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS EAST.
HOWEVER...SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SURPRISING OWING TO UNSEASONABLY
LOW OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF EIGHT TO NINE TENTHS OF AN
INCH; A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASIDE FROM WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT; AND THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 700 MB. WILL CONSEQUENTLY KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...AT LEAST UNTIL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS...AND CALM
CONDITIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ON
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...STILL
AM EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY (WEDNESDAY)...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S...MAYBE RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 207 AM THURSDAY...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT: SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER
THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ALMOST NON-
EXISTENT. AS A RESULT ANY KIND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD HAVE TO
BE INSTABILITY DRIVEN. THE PROBLEM WITH THAT THOUGH IS THAT THE
AIRMASS IS VERY DRY AND SO INSTABILITY WILL BE HARD TO COME BY AS
WELL AT LEAST DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM.
THEREFORE...WITH VERY LITTLE SHEAR...INSTABILITY...AND
MOISTURE...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: STRONG AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN QUEBEC WILL HELP THE UPPER LEVEL EASTERN CONUS
TROUGH TO RE-EMERGE AND ALSO GUIDE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AS PW VALUES INCREASE TO OVER
AN INCH AND A HALF. THAT BEING SAID...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
STILL VERY LOW SO WILL ONLY INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME UNTIL THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD WHEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEEING
AT LEAST SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL PICK UP.
CONSISTENCY IN MODEL SOLUTION TIMING OF THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
IS LACKING WITH THE GFS SHOWING A FASTER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF BUT
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL CREEP UP AS OPPOSED TO
EARLIER IN THE WEEK WITH HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TODAY...THERE WILL BE A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 6000-8000FT SKIRTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A PERIOD OF BROKEN CEILINGS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG AT KRWI BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...ELLIS
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
125 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1010 PM WEDNESDAY...
DIURNAL CU HAS DIMINISHED AND RESULTED IN A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS
CENTRAL NC THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN AREA
OF UPSTREAM SCT TO BKN ALTOCUMULUS IN A RELATIVE MAXIMUM OF MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS PER 00Z RAOB
DATA - MOST NOTABLE AT RNK. THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS VA AND NC IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT...
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDS THAT WILL
INTERRUPT OTHERWISE EXCELLENT VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PEAK OF THE
PERSEID METEOR SHOWER.
INTERESTINGLY...THE HRRR HAS INSISTED FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW THAT
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED POCKET OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PIVOTS EAST.
HOWEVER...SUCH DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE SURPRISING OWING TO UNSEASONABLY
LOW OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF EIGHT TO NINE TENTHS OF AN
INCH; A LACK OF ANY NOTABLE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASIDE FROM WEAK
PERTURBATIONS IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT; AND THE PRESENCE OF A STOUT
CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 700 MB. WILL CONSEQUENTLY KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY...AT LEAST UNTIL OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST
OTHERWISE.
THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS...AND CALM
CONDITIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT COOL TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S BY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED ON
THURSDAY...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...MODELS DO INDICATE A WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH DRIFTING OVER THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
REGARDLESS...GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR AND LACK OF INSTABILITY...STILL
AM EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT IS
FORECAST FOR TODAY (WEDNESDAY)...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S...MAYBE RIGHT AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM WEDNESDAY...
THROUGH THE WEEKEND: AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GENERALLY SW FLOW ALOFT.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE...WITH GENERALLY
NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY LIGHT WINDS. DURING THIS TIME...EXPECT DRY
WEATHER...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST (IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERING OFF THE COAST) OR IN THE
MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK: RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY...ADVECTING RELATIVELY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR INTO
CENTRAL NC. MEANWHILE...THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WEAKENS AS ANOTHER
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
IS A CHANCE MUCH OF THE AREA COULD REMAIN DRY OR SEE VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION. REGARDLESS...WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AFT/EVE SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S EXPECTED...WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 AM THURSDAY...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE CENTRAL NC WITH VFR CONDITIONS
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. TODAY...THERE WILL BE A DECK OF
STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES 6000-8000FT SKIRTING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
A PERIOD OF BROKEN CEILINGS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE MAY BE A
SHORT PERIOD OF MVFR VISIBILITY DUE TO FOG AT KRWI BETWEEN
08Z-12Z. OTHERWISE SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE
TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...RAH
SHORT TERM...KRD
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
958 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 958 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS A SMALL PORTION OF THE REGION APPEAR TO BE
DISSIPATING. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET AND LOW-MID LEVEL FORCING AS A
COUPLE SUBTLE UPPER WAVES APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A WEAK 850MB
TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH THE REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS COOLING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCES
WOULD SEEM POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS WEAK COLD
FRONT (MUCH LIKE THE 11Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR DEPICTS). ADJUSTED
POPS TOWARD THIS SCENARIO. STRONGER STORMS APPEAR UNLIKELY GIVEN
WEAK FORCING AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. WILL NEED TO WATCH
INSTABILITY...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MLCAPE POSSIBLY UP
TO 1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING...WHICH COMBINED WITH EXPECTED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND WEAK FORCING PROBABLY NOT SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE
STORMS.
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS MAY HOLD MAX TEMPS DOWN A
BIT...BUT STILL UPPER 80S NEAR 90F APPEAR A GOOD BET.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
PRECIP CHANCES TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES OVER THE ROCKIES AND WESTERN PLAINS...BUT
THE WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE COMING OVER THE
TOP OF IT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND ANOTHER WEAKER SHORTWAVE
JUST ENTERING THE FAR WESTERN DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. THE
MAIN COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE IS
MOSTLY IN SOUTH DAKOTA...BUT SOME ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LINGERING ON
THE ND SIDE WITH A FEW SPOTS IN SOUTHWEST ND REPORTING SOME RAIN.
THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING...AND SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS GETTING INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
MORNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. INCLUDED SOME LOW POPS IN THE
SOUTH AFTER 12Z.
OF GREATER QUESTION IS WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE NORTHERN
SHORTWAVE COMES DOWN INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY. NONE OF THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING VERY WELL LATELY...SO HARD TO TRUST ANY ONE
SOLUTION. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWERS ENTERING NORTHWESTERN
ND WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM...SO WILL THEY HOLD TOGETHER AND WILL
THERE BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY BY THE TIME THE SHORTWAVE ARRIVES FOR
STRONGER STORMS TO DEVELOP? MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONCENTRATE
ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN CWA...WHICH MAKES SENSE AS THE SHORTWAVE
STARTS TO COME SOUTH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AFTER
MORNING ACTIVITY...DO THINK THERE WILL BE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE
NEAR THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. BEST SHEAR IS FURTHER SOUTH SO THINK
THAT MOST OF THE STORMS IN OUR AREA WILL BE SUB SEVERE. FOR NOW
HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
SOUTH OF I-94...BUT WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CLOUDS
AND SOME PRECIP ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER 850MB TEMPS TODAY WILL
KEEP TEMPS A BIT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT AT LEAST THE WESTERN
CWA WILL STILL GET NEAR 90 DEGREES. A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE
EASTERN CWA TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL NICELY...BUT HIGHER
DEW POINTS WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN WARMER
THAN TODAY WITH CLEAR SKIES AND SFC WINDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER MT. HIGHS
SHOULD GET INTO THE 90S WITH SOME 80S HANGING ON OVER THE EASTERN
CWA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START
TO FLATTEN A BIT AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
SASKATCHEWAN INTO MANITOBA. A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SFC LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP AHEAD OF IT. THE WINDS
WILL KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER FRIDAY NIGHT MIXED SO LOWS WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S. THE BREEZY SOUTH WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD MIXING SATURDAY AND MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE BEING OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME.
BUMPED UP HIGHS A BIT FOR SOME MID 90S IN SOME PARTS OF THE
CWA...AND SOME HIGHER READINGS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. A COLD
FRONT WILL COME DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ALONG IT. KEPT
FAIRLY HIGH POPS GOING SATURDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS STARTING TO COME
DOWN A BIT.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE QUIET WEATHER
INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK. A FLATTER UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK...WITH AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPS. PRECIP CHANCES ARE MORE UNCERTAIN BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS
THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING/AMPLITUDE OF AN UPPER WAVE
LIFTING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
PATCHY FOG HAS REDUCED VIS AT KTVF TO 1/4 MILE THIS MORNING. THERE
COULD BE SOME BOUNCING AROUND FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE
VIS IMPROVES BACK TO VFR. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE MAINLY HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE 15000 FT...WITH WINDS SETTLING DOWN OUT OF THE SOUTH
AT AROUND 10 KTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING IN BUT
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT AT TAF SITES AT THIS POINT.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
125 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND WERE DIMINISHING TO RAIN SHOWERS. THE
AREA OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 950 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS HIGH BASED
CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST MONTANA. OVERALL...THE MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS RAPIDLY
ENDING WITH SUNSET AS STORMS HAVE BECOME OUTFLOW DOMINATED. THE 02
UTC HRRR DOES HAVE A GOOD DEPICTION OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND
WILL FOLLOW ITS SOLUTION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
AS OF 604 PM CDT...THE LONE SUPERCELL THAT WAS NEAR LAKE TSCHIDA
HAS NOW TRANSITIONED INTO A WEAKENING MULTI-CELL CLUSTER AFTER A
STORM MERGER OVER CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT
ANOTHER LONE SUPERCELL THROUGH SUNSET AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE WARM TEMPERATURES...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
VERY LOW. ALTHOUGH...ANY CELL THAT CAN BREAK THE CAP WOULD BE
CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS WITH DCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1800
J/KG.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE EXCESSIVE
HEAT AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
MANITOBA SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. MUCH DRIER AIR
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S OVER FAR NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
AND NORTHEAST MONTANA. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH MOISTURE POOLING HAS
RESULTED IN A BAND OF LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO
NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 90S OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH A LARGE AREA OF UPPER 90S ALONG
AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE LOWER 100S ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WILL ADD A MENTION
OF HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS
LIKE MAYBE A 3 HOUR PERIOD OR SO...THUS NO HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE MONDAY AREA WITH A
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE RIDING DOWN THE RIDGE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA.
WE REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH ML CAPES
OVER 3000 J/KG AND DECENT BULK LAYER SHEAR. HOWEVER WE REMAIN
CAPPED UNDER THE WARM THERMAL RIDGE. LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
RAP/HRRR HAVE INDICATED CONVECTION OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND
JAMES RIVER VALLEY FROM AROUND 5 TO 7 PM...BUT KEEP THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE MANITOBA SHORTWAVE EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WILL CERTAINLY
NEED TO MONITOR AS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD QUICKLY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE VERY STRONG INSTABILITY. AS FAR
AS THE FORECAST...HAVE KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THIS AREA THROUGH
MID EVENING.
TO THE WEST IT LOOKS LIKE THE RAP/HRRR ARE BRINGING IN CONVECTION
TOO EARLY AND ARE TOO WIDESPREAD WITH THIS CONVECTION. FORECAST
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND
TRACKING SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS WAVE TRACKS BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE TROUGH SO THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE
LACK OF SURFACE HEATING DUE TO THE TIMING...THE THREAT OF STRONGER
STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER SHOULD
KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER MOST AREAS...BUT WE ARE STILL
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 90S MOST AREAS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
THE LARGE AND PERSISTENT H500 RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US IS
FORECAST TO BREAK DOWN BY THE WEEKEND BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CURRENTLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE LOW WILL RIDE UP AND
EVENTUALLY BEAT DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING AN END TO OUR VERY WARM
WEATHER BY SUNDAY.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY
WARM WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND HIGHS
FRIDAY FROM THE LOWER 90S FRONT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER 90S IN THE WEST. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL
BE LIMITED BY THE RECENT LACK OF RAIN AND CURING VEGETATION AND AS A
RESULT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH TO CREATE CRITICAL
HEAT INDEX VALUES.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF AROUND 20
MPH ARE EXPECTED. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF AROUND 20 PERCENT
EXPECTED IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...FIRE MANAGERS HAVE
SAID THAT GRASSES ARE NOT CURED ENOUGH IN THE NORTHWEST FOR FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS OF YET.
SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY POP UP IN THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY
WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY OF 20 TO
25 PERCENT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. THOSE CONDITIONS WOULD
STILL BE JUST BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA FOR THE SOUTHWEST...WHERE FIRE
MANAGERS SAY THE GRASSES ARE CURING QUICKLY.
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY
NIGHT IN THE WEST...AND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AS IT
PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
BY SUNDAY MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FLOW IN WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80. COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE MONDAY TROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST WITH
CYCLONIC FLOW AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
SHOWERS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS DRY
FOR THURSDAY DAYTIME WITH VFR.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1058 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES AS FORECAST SEEMS TO BE MOSTLY ON TRACK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS MORNING.
THIS ACTIVITY TO BE RATHER SHORT LIVED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
ANOTHER WARM AND PARTLY CLOUDY DAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
UPDATE...
TRIMMED BACK PRECIP/WX CHANCES THIS MORNING...
DISCUSSION...
PULLED BACK PRECIP/WX CHANCES THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. SATELLITE SUGGEST CONTINUED ACCAS DEVELOPMENT... BUT
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS HAVE PULLED BACK
CONSIDERABLY... ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE DECISION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OK THROUGH THIS
MORNING GIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...
BUT MORE THAN LIKELY MANY WILL STAY DRY.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL STRATO CU AND CU CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF OK. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
PRIMARILY IMPACTING KGAG/KWWR AND POTENTIALLY KCSM/KHBR. NOT AS
DEVELOPED AS YESTERDAY MORNING... IMPACTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
MINOR... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OUT OF THE E/SE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING... CONTINUING TO WATCH EXPANDING AREA OF ACCAS ACROSS
NWRN AND WRN OK THROUGH 0830Z (330AM). FARTHER NORTH IN KS... A FEW
UPDRAFTS HAVE STARTED TO GO UP. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE
HRRR/WRFS/RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WRN OK. SIMILAR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... MINUS AN AREA OF ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SWRN KS... MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT ARE
PREVALENT... AND EVIDENT BY THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CU ON IR. ALSO
OF NOTE THIS MORNING... SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD 1000-1500 J/KG
AXIS OF MUCAPE CENTERED OVER WRN OK. OVERALL... EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDER TO INITIATE BETWEEN 09 AND 10Z THIS
MORNING IN WRN OK... LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH NOON. MEANWHILE...
TEMPS TODAY WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK TO THE MID 90S ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX.
INTO FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND WRN N TX IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW... BUT
WORTHY OF A MENTION INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... AFTN HIGHS WILL REMAIN
STEADY EACH DAY... IN THE 90S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LATE MON INTO
TUE... A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NWRN OK... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SOME SCATTERED PRECIP POSSIBLY NUDGING INTO FAR NWRN OK EARLY TUE
MORNING... BUT OVERALL... CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.
LATE IN THE WEEK... THU-FRI... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
AT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. AT THE MOMENT... THE GFS IS THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION... WITH THE ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND A STEP
SLOWER.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 90 67 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 92 71 94 69 / 10 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 94 73 95 71 / 10 10 20 10
GAGE OK 91 69 92 67 / 10 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 90 69 90 67 / 10 0 10 0
DURANT OK 93 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
14/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
726 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
TRIMMED BACK PRECIP/WX CHANCES THIS MORNING...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
PULLED BACK PRECIP/WX CHANCES THIS MORNING GIVEN CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS. SATELLITE SUGGEST CONTINUED ACCAS DEVELOPMENT... BUT
OVERALL LACK OF PRECIP THIS MORNING. HRRR RUNS HAVE PULLED BACK
CONSIDERABLY... ADDING SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE DECISION. WILL
CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MUCH OF WESTERN OK THROUGH THIS
MORNING GIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...
BUT MORE THAN LIKELY MANY WILL STAY DRY.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
AVIATION...13/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
BKN TO OVC MID-LEVEL STRATO CU AND CU CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS WRN
PORTIONS OF OK. A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...
PRIMARILY IMPACTING KGAG/KWWR AND POTENTIALLY KCSM/KHBR. NOT AS
DEVELOPED AS YESTERDAY MORNING... IMPACTS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
MINOR... WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE AND OUT OF THE E/SE
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING... CONTINUING TO WATCH EXPANDING AREA OF ACCAS ACROSS
NWRN AND WRN OK THROUGH 0830Z (330AM). FARTHER NORTH IN KS... A FEW
UPDRAFTS HAVE STARTED TO GO UP. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FROM THE
HRRR/WRFS/RUC HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN GENERATING CONVECTION ACROSS
THE WRN OK. SIMILAR THE PAST FEW NIGHTS... MINUS AN AREA OF ONGOING
CONVECTION IN SWRN KS... MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND ASCENT ARE
PREVALENT... AND EVIDENT BY THE DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CU ON IR. ALSO
OF NOTE THIS MORNING... SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A GOOD 1000-1500 J/KG
AXIS OF MUCAPE CENTERED OVER WRN OK. OVERALL... EXPECT SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATE THUNDER TO INITIATE BETWEEN 09 AND 10Z THIS
MORNING IN WRN OK... LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH NOON. MEANWHILE...
TEMPS TODAY WILL SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS NRN AND
CENTRAL OK TO THE MID 90S ACROSS SRN OK/WRN N TX.
INTO FRIDAY... SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS FAR SWRN OK AND WRN N TX IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW... BUT
WORTHY OF A MENTION INTO THE AFTN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR NORMAL...
WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION.
FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... AFTN HIGHS WILL REMAIN
STEADY EACH DAY... IN THE 90S ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LATE MON INTO
TUE... A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NWRN OK... WITH A SLIGHT CHANCES OF
SOME SCATTERED PRECIP POSSIBLY NUDGING INTO FAR NWRN OK EARLY TUE
MORNING... BUT OVERALL... CONDITIONS SHOULD BE DRY AND PLEASANT.
LATE IN THE WEEK... THU-FRI... BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST A
DECENT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE
AT ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. AT THE MOMENT... THE GFS IS THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION... WITH THE ECMWF LESS AGGRESSIVE AND A STEP
SLOWER.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 90 69 90 67 / 10 10 10 0
HOBART OK 92 71 94 69 / 20 10 10 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 73 95 71 / 10 10 20 10
GAGE OK 90 69 92 67 / 20 10 10 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 69 90 67 / 0 0 10 0
DURANT OK 93 68 95 69 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1157 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAFS IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERALLY EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. IF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS....IT WILL
INITIALLY AFFECT KGAG AND KWWR. AS THE STORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...THEY WOULD AFFECT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW LATER IN THE
MORNING. KOKC AND KOUN WOULD BE ON THE EASTERN FRINGE FOR ANY
POTENTIAL IMPACTS. IF A HEAVIER SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OCCURS OVER
A TAF SITE...MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE AND EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF TSRA IN TAFS.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
UPDATE...
ADDED/INCREASED POPS FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
DISCUSSION...
WITH DEEP MID-LEVEL MOIST LAYER NOT GOING ANYWHERE...OTHER THAN
SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST FROM WHERE IT WAS LAST NIGHT AND
TODAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL /H7/ WAA MAY RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
BUT THEY WILL BE BRIEF AND WEAK. WE WILL INCREASE THE POPS A BIT
FOR TONIGHT ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF CWA AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AFTER DAYBREAK WITH EASTWARD PROG OF MOIST AXIS. WRF AND
RAP FAIRLY CONSISTENT ON WEAK SIGNAL BUT OTHER MODELS HAVE
NOTHING. WRF AND RAP HAVE HANDLED THE WEAKLY FORCED ACTIVITY
BETTER THE PAST FEW DAYS SO WE WILL STICK CLOSER TO THOSE
SOLUTIONS IN THIS UPDATE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAFS IS BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. IF THE STORMS DEVELOP....THEY WILL
INITIALLY AFFECT KGAG AND KWWR. AS THE STORMS SHIFT
SOUTHWARD...THEY MAY AFFECT KCSM/KHBR/KLAW LATER IN THE MORNING.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN TAFS FOR NOW.
MAHALE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THE PERSISTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA IS
EXPECTED TO LAST SEVERAL MORE HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING THIS
EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAIN MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ELEVATED FRONTAL
ZONE LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...BUT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
WEAKER FORCING...SO LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN THEN.
VARIOUS WEAK FEATURES WILL RESULT IN A FEW PERIODS OF LOW RAIN
CHANCES OVER RELATIVELY SMALL GEOGRAPHIC AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN GENERAL...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A MORE POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ABOUT MIDWEEK...AND IF THIS ACTUALLY HAPPENS...IT
COULD PUSH A RELATIVELY STRONG COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD GREATLY
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...AND BRING RELATIVELY MILD WEATHER INTO THE
REGION...IF...IT HAPPENS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 65 90 68 89 / 10 30 10 0
HOBART OK 68 94 71 92 / 20 30 0 10
WICHITA FALLS TX 70 95 72 94 / 10 40 0 10
GAGE OK 65 91 70 92 / 20 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 64 90 69 90 / 0 10 0 10
DURANT OK 69 94 67 94 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
11/10/10
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
856 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A FEW SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY.
THE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FROM SATURDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION...INTO
SOUTHERN ONTARIO/QUEBEC WAS FIRING UP SEVERAL AREAS THUNDERSTORMS.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER PENN...AND SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS
ALOFT...AND FAIRLY WEAK 850-500 MB FLOW OF JUST 15-20 KTS WAS
LIMITING THE SOUTHERN PROGRESSION OF THIS CONVECTION.
ALTHOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FCST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NRN
TIER COUNTIES OF PENN TONIGHT...THE BULK OF THE REGION WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH MINIMAL CLOUDS. 23Z HRRR INDICATES THAT THE BEST
CHC FOR CONVECTION ACROSS NRN PENN WILL BE OVER THE NEXT 4 HOURS
/THROUGH ABOUT 05Z SAT/.
TEMPS NOSED A BIT ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS WILL BE
THE START OF A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THAT WILL LAST INTO NEXT
WEEK.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT...AVERAGING IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA /WHICH WILL BE CLOSE TO
CURRENT 00Z SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA/.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE WARM WITH THE HUMIDITY BEGINNING TO CREEP
INTO THE NOTICEABLE RANGE AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S.
HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN AVERAGE NEAR 80 OVER THE NORTH...AND RANGE
TO THE MID 80S OVER THE SOUTH...GENERALLY 3-5F DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME MEASURE OF INSTABILITY AS A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS IS MADE TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE REGION
DURING THE DAY...PLACING SOME COOLER AIR ABOVE THE WARMING LOW
LEVELS. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
NW 2/3 OF THE FCST AREA...BUT OVERALL CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW
AND OF THE HIT AND MISS VARIETY OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING CONVECTION. WITH MODEL CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1200J...SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTY DOWNPOURS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHIFTS EASTWARD
THE POSITIVELY TILTING RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO EASTERN CANADA SUNDAY.
THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW FOR A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH THAT
WHILE DEEPENING...PWATS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL OF ANY MOISTURE. ANY
DAYTIME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FADE QUICKLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL FAVOR
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS AND WHAT LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL DAYS OF SUMMER
WARMTH AND HUMIDITY. THE GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A TREND OF WARMER
TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH MODEL DIVERGENCE OCCURRING
THURSDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOWER AFTERWARDS.
MODELS REMAIN IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID RANGE WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
MOIST FLOW ADVECTING INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
THIS COUPLED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD SHOULD BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY. THERE IS SOME DIVERGENT FLOW WHICH
COULD RULE OUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATING TUESDAY AS ONE OF THE WARMER DAYS NEXT
WEEK. GIVEN THAT MOISTURE IS PRESENT...EXPECTING AT LEAST CHANCE
POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT DROPS INTO
THE EASTERN GR LAKES IT WILL BE LOSING SUPPORT ALOFT SO IT IS
LIKELY TO WEAKEN OR STALL ON ITS TRIP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM WITH DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED AS GFS BRINGS
A SYSTEM THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. EC AND GFS HOWEVER HAVE DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS SO CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THROUGH MODEL SPREAD IS WIDER INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL PROVIDE
MOST OF PENNSYLVANIA WITH VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST SW FLOW INTO NW PA COULD POTENTIALLY PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF EITHER FOG OR MVFR CIGS AT KBFD BTWN 08Z-12Z. HOWEVER...EVEN
THAT APPEARS A LOW PROBABILITY BASED ON LATEST MDL GUIDANCE.
FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST MOS GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME LIGHT /MVFR/
FOG ARND DAWN SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST HRRR...NAM AND SREF ALL
SUGGEST THIS IS A LOW PROBABILITY.
A FEW SHRA/TSRA ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP SAT AFTN ACROSS NORTHERN PA
ASSOC WITH PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. CAN/T RULE
OUT A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION SOMETIME BTWN 18Z-00Z ACROSS NORTHERN
PA...BUT ODDS APPEAR SLIM. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS APPEAR
A NEAR CERTAINTY LATE SAT AM THRU SAT EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS N MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT/RXR
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/RXR
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/CERU
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
613 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AS THEY MOVE DOWN
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CERTAINLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
IN STORE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE
QUIET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CUMULUS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
SHOULD SLOW DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS. ANOTHER NICE COOL EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
HRRR TENDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE MOST RECENT HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS IN ONTARIO NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE TOO FAR AWAY TO GET EXCITED. THE SREF WOULD SUGGEST 20
PERCENT CHANCE IN NW BUT 3KM HRRR WAS USED TO DECREASE THIS.
SREF AND GEFS ALONG WITH THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC SUITE SHOW HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ALONG NY BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EACH
SYSTEM VARIES BUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE TWO ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. LOWER
AS ONE MOVES SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE TROUGH STALLS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER IN THE
MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME WAA FROM THE WEST AS THE FLAT SFC
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH SITS STILL. DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY DROP A
LITTLE FROM WHAT THEY WILL BE IN THE MORNING...SO INSTABILITY WILL
CLIMB A BIT ON FRIDAY BUT CAPES WON/T GET ALL THAT HIGH. BFD NAM
SOUNDING DRAWS LESS THAN 500 JOULES. HEIGHTS ARE RISING ON THE
WHOLE AS WELL. PLENTY OF MDLS DO CRANK OUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH-END CHC/SCT POPS ALONG
THE NY BORDER FOR THE DAYTIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY LOWS/TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE OVER AND
AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES AND THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY THE CORRESPONDING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST WILL DEEPEN....BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY STALL AND MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN ANY CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT STALLS SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE AT OR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER
AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REST OF CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY ON TIMING SO HAVE LEFT BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE THE AREA WITH A NEAR
CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY VALLEY
FOG OVER NORTHERN PA WILL BE ISOLATED AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT THE
CENTRAL PA AIRFIELDS. FRI LOOKS DRY AND VFR AS WELL. THERE IS
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY FRI AT KBFD AS
THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH RUNS INTO THE NW FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME PAC MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL BE IN
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WEAK TROUGHS OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AS THEY MOVE DOWN
FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. CERTAINLY...WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
IN STORE. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...RISING HEIGHTS AND DRY AIR. SHOULD BE
QUIET THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE CUMULUS OVER THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
SHOULD SLOW DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS. ANOTHER NICE COOL EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MIDNIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS POSSIBLE.
HRRR TENDS TO KEEP THE CHANCE OF RAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.
THE MOST RECENT HRRR SHOWS SOME SHOWERS IN ONTARIO NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE TOO FAR AWAY TO GET EXCITED. THE SREF WOULD SUGGEST 20
PERCENT CHANCE IN NW BUT 3KM HRRR WAS USED TO DECREASE THIS.
SREF AND GEFS ALONG WITH THE NCEP DETERMINISTIC SUITE SHOW HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN ALONG NY BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. EACH
SYSTEM VARIES BUT 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS REASONABLE IN THE TWO ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS. LOWER
AS ONE MOVES SOUTH INTO PENNSYLVANIA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THE TROUGH STALLS ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF THE NY BORDER IN THE
MORNING. THERE WILL BE SOME WAA FROM THE WEST AS THE FLAT SFC
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH SITS STILL. DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY DROP A
LITTLE FROM WHAT THEY WILL BE IN THE MORNING...SO INSTABILITY WILL
CLIMB A BIT ON FRIDAY BUT CAPES WON/T GET ALL THAT HIGH. BFD NAM
SOUNDING DRAWS LESS THAN 500 JOULES. HEIGHTS ARE RISING ON THE
WHOLE AS WELL. PLENTY OF MDLS DO CRANK OUT SOME CONVECTION ACROSS
THE NORTH...SO WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY HIGH-END CHC/SCT POPS ALONG
THE NY BORDER FOR THE DAYTIME.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY LOWS/TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE OVER AND
AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES AND THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY THE CORRESPONDING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST WILL DEEPEN....BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY STALL AND MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN ANY CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT STALLS SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE AT OR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER
AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REST OF CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY ON TIMING SO HAVE LEFT BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL. OTHER THAN SOME VERY HIGH-BASED
CU...JUST SOME HIGHER CLOUDS LATE TODAY...MAINLY NW. VALLEY FOG
MAY NOT SHOW UP AGAIN TONIGHT...AS TEMPS ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S IN
THE NRN TIER. FRI LOOKS DRY AND VFR AS WELL. THERE IS ONLY A VERY
SLIGHT CHC FOR A SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY FRI AT KBFD AS THE RETURN
FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH RUNS INTO THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SOME PAC
MOISTURE.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
645 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER
WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE
FINAL DAY OF THE WANING CRESCENT MOON...WAS BRINGING FANTASTIC
CONDITIONS TO VIEW THE PEAK OF THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER. TONIGHT
COULD FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A NEW MOON...BUT AREAS OF
MID AND CLOUD CLOUDS COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT
TIMES.
TEMPS WERE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID AUGUST...WITH BRADFORD TAKING THE
PRIZE FOR THE LOW TEMP OF 42F AT 10Z.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S...TO NEAR 60F IN THE LARGER
METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BUT
THEY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
THE OTHERWISE SUNNY...AND SPLENDID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUGUST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY AM...FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES
AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE AIR/WATER
DELTA T IS 20 DEG F OR MORE.
00Z WRFARW AND THE LATEST...03Z SREF BOTH SHOW A LOW PROB FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PENN MTNS BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z TODAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY...WHILE THE 09Z HRRR IS BONE DRY. OUR 10-20 POPS THERE
CONTINUE TO LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. POPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY
ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY WEATHER FACTORS
ALOFT TO SPEAK OF WILL BE THE PERIODS OF ALTOCU AND CIRRUS THAT
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY
SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO LARGE CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
NICE SUNRISE HERE...CLEAR SKIES NOW. BFD ABOUT THE ONLY
SPOT THAT HAD FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE THE PERSEID METEOR
SHOWER EARLIER.
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS LATE TODAY...MAINLY NW.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TO BAD AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
642 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER
WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE
FINAL DAY OF THE WANING CRESCENT MOON...WAS BRINGING FANTASTIC
CONDITIONS TO VIEW THE PEAK OF THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER. TONIGHT
COULD FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A NEW MOON...BUT AREAS OF
MID AND CLOUD CLOUDS COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT
TIMES.
TEMPS WERE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID AUGUST...WITH BRADFORD TAKING THE
PRIZE FOR THE LOW TEMP OF 44F AT 09Z.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S...TO NEAR 60F IN THE LARGER
METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BUT
THEY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
THE OTHERWISE SUNNY...AND SPLENDID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUGUST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY AM...FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES
AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE AIR/WATER
DELTA T IS 20 DEG F OR MORE.
00Z WRFARW AND THE LATEST...03Z SREF BOTH SHOW A LOW PROB FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PENN MTNS BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z TODAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY...WHILE THE HRRR IS BONE DRY. OUR 10-20 POPS THERE CONTINUE
TO LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. POPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY WEATHER FACTORS
ALOFT TO SPEAK OF WILL BE THE PERIODS OF ALTOCU AND CIRRUS THAT
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY
SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO LARGE CHANGES TO 12Z TAF PACKAGE.
NICE SUNRISE HERE...CLEAR SKIES NOW. BFD ABOUT THE ONLY
SPOT THAT HAD FOG OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE THE PERSEID METEOR
SHOWER EARLIER.
SOME HIGHER CLOUDS LATE TODAY...MAINLY NW.
WEEKEND NOT LOOKING TO BAD AT THIS POINT.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
603 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US A CHANGE TO COOLER WEATHER
WITH LOW DAYTIME HUMIDITY...WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD
BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ENTIRE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THE
FINAL DAY OF THE WANING CRESCENT MOON...WAS BRINGING FANTASTIC
CONDITIONS TO VIEW THE PEAK OF THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER. TONIGHT
COULD FEATURE SIMILAR CONDITIONS WITH A NEW MOON...BUT AREAS OF
MID AND CLOUD CLOUDS COULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT
TIMES.
TEMPS WERE QUITE CHILLY FOR MID AUGUST...WITH BRADFORD TAKING THE
PRIZE FOR THE LOW TEMP OF 44F AT 09Z.
ELSEWHERE...TEMPS WERE IN THE 50S...TO NEAR 60F IN THE LARGER
METRO AREAS THROUGHOUT THE SUSQ VALLEY.
SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL DRIFT SE INTO THE COMMONWEALTH TODAY...BUT
THEY WILL BE QUITE THIN AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE OR NO IMPACT ON
THE OTHERWISE SUNNY...AND SPLENDID CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
AUGUST.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE L-M 70S ACROSS THE NRN AND WRN
MTNS...AND AROUND 80F IN THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY AM...FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES
AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE AIR/WATER
DELTA T IS 20 DEG F OR MORE.
00Z WRFARW AND THE LATEST...03Z SREF BOTH SHOW A LOW PROB FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW PENN MTNS BETWEEN ABOUT 20Z TODAY AND 00Z
FRIDAY...WHILE THE HRRR IS BONE DRY. OUR 10-20 POPS THERE CONTINUE
TO LOOK IN GOOD SHAPE. POPS ELSEWHERE WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ZERO.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
WARMER TEMPS ARE ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY. THE ONLY WEATHER FACTORS
ALOFT TO SPEAK OF WILL BE THE PERIODS OF ALTOCU AND CIRRUS THAT
WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY SE ACROSS THE STATE.
HIGH TEMPS FRIDAY WILL VARY FROM THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE NORTH AND WEST...WHILE THE LOW SUSQ VALLEY
SEES TEMPS RECH ATLEAT 85F.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAINLY CLEAR OUT. SOME FOG AROUND...MAINLY AT BFD.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CREEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND JUST OT THE NORTH OF KIPT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
524 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
FEW AREAS OF ALTO CU CLOUDS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...SOON
TO BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. OVERALL GREAT CONDITIONS TO
VIEW THE PEAK OF THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER.
LIGHT WIND TO CALM AIR ACROSS THE CWA WILL COMBINE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN /AND LOWER
60S OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY/ TO ALLOW ANOTHER SEVERAL DEG F OF
COOLING THROUGH 11Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY AM...FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES
AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A REALLY NICE DAY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HRRR ONLY GOES TO 15Z AND IT SHOWS A PRETTY CLEAR RADAR
SCOPE SO TO SPEAK.
THE OPERATIONAL 21Z SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST SHOWER POTENTIAL IN
NORTHWEST PA WITH ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE NEWER
26 MEMBER PARALLEL SREF HAS 5 PERCENT CHANCE OVER A SMALLER
AREA...BASICALLY PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY BETWEEN 21 AND 00 UTC.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS QUITE LOW FOR POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING. PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PA. BUT VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY TO BE OUTDOORS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
09Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
MAINLY CLEAR OUT. SOME FOG AROUND...MAINLY AT BFD.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CREEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND JUST OT THE NORTH OF KIPT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
248 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION AROUND
MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A
FEW AREAS OF ALTO CU CLOUDS OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES...SOON
TO BE EXITING TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. OVERALL GREAT CONDITIONS TO
VIEW THE PEAK OF THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER.
LIGHT WIND TO CALM AIR ACROSS THE CWA WILL COMBINE WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE L-M 50S ACROSS CENTRAL AND WRN PENN /AND LOWER
60S OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY/ TO ALLOW ANOTHER SEVERAL DEG F OF
COOLING THROUGH 11Z.
THERE COULD BE SOME PATCHY AM...FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER BODIES
AND STREAMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A REALLY NICE DAY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HRRR ONLY GOES TO 15Z AND IT SHOWS A PRETTY CLEAR RADAR
SCOPE SO TO SPEAK.
THE OPERATIONAL 21Z SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST SHOWER POTENTIAL IN
NORTHWEST PA WITH ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE NEWER
26 MEMBER PARALLEL SREF HAS 5 PERCENT CHANCE OVER A SMALLER
AREA...BASICALLY PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY BETWEEN 21 AND 00 UTC.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS QUITE LOW FOR POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING. PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PA. BUT VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY TO BE OUTDOORS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR OUT. SOME FOG AROUND...MAINLY AT BFD.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CREEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND JUST OT THE NORTH OF KIPT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...GRUMM/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
146 AM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HIGHER HEIGHTS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING COOLER AND DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION
AROUND MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND WEATHER. LAST OF THE PESKY
SHOWERS FINALLY FADING OUT OVER COLUMBIA COUNTY AND SOME CLOUDS AT
LEAST WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE SHOWERS THAT AFFECTED A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST.
MOST AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND COOL EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. PLEASANT
DRY MORNING. COULD BE SOME PATCHY AM FOG ESPECIALLY NEAR WATER
BODIES AND STREAMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS A REALLY NICE DAY LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. THE HRRR ONLY GOES TO 15Z AND IT SHOWS A PRETTY CLEAR RADAR
SCOPE SO TO SPEAK.
THE OPERATIONAL 21Z SREF SHOWS SOME MODEST SHOWER POTENTIAL IN
NORTHWEST PA WITH ABOUT A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE NEWER
26 MEMBER PARALLEL SREF HAS 5 PERCENT CHANCE OVER A SMALLER
AREA...BASICALLY PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY BETWEEN 21 AND 00 UTC.
THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS QUITE LOW FOR POPS OVER MOST OF THE
REGION PROBABLY NOT WORTH MENTIONING. PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PA. BUT VERY LOW PROBABILITY.
SHOULD BE A GOOD DAY TO BE OUTDOORS OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY CLEAR OUT. SOME FOG AROUND...MAINLY AT BFD.
06Z TAFS SENT.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE TOWARD SUNSET. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE CREEPING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
AND JUST OT THE NORTH OF KIPT. WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...EXPECT SKIES TO CLEAR AFTER SUNSET WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG
LATER TONIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST
TOMORROW WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
MON...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO/MARTIN/TYBURSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1245 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
QUITE A BIT TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE THIS MORNING HAS MAINTAINED AND
EVEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THUNDER
REMAINS QUIET SPOTTY. WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH STRONGEST OF THE UPPER FORCING THIS MORNING
GLANCING ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. TOUGH CALL ON THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY WITH
ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE LACKING AN ADEQUATE SIMULATION OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS. HRRR MARGINALLY USEFUL...BUT APPEARS TO NOT BE
HANDLING THE STRONGER FORCED AREA TO THE NORTHEAST WELL AT ALL.
HAVE PUSHED POPS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE MID
JAMES VALLEY THROUGH HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...AND EXPANDED SOME
SLIGHTS/SPRINKLES DOWN TOWARD I 90 BY VERY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF TAIL OF WAVE...BUT DRY AIR BELOW MID CLOUD
DECK WILL MAKE THIS SOMEWHAT A STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE DRY LAYER IN THE KABR 12Z RAOB...NO SURPRISE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREATED A DECENT COLD AIR POOL AND
DISRUPTED THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HAD A FEW WIND
GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
SD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS AREA EXPANDS INTO SW MN
AT MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND THE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING TAKING A GOOD BITE OUT OF DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...AS
WILL ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN FACT
HAVE RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE FAR SOUTH.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT CURRENT CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CREATE A
CHALLENGE TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. STILL
HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO THOSE AREAS WHICH POTENTIALLY
HEAT OUT THE BEST TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY PROFILE...AND THE GREATER CHANCE WOULD REMAIN TOWARD
LOWER BRULE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP ORGANIZATION
POTENTIAL LIMITED...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL WOULD THE PRIMARY THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS WEAK RIDGE-TOPPING SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND TRIGGERING SPOTTY ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL SD AS
OF 08Z. FEW IF ANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY
WITH CLOUD BASES LARGELY REGISTERING AT OR ABOVE 11KFT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO WATCH FOR SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A CONVERGENCE ZONE AMID WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION
IN THIS AREA AROUND 12Z. AGAIN THINK MOISTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH...AND OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE EARLY
MORNING POPS THERE AS A RESULT.
THINK MAIN EFFECT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL BE TO FORCE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR MID-
LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS HAVE SHIFTED
POPS CLOSER TO I-90 CORRIDOR FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCE STILL EXPECTED NEAR/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SD AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT THINK ACTIVITY
IN OUR AREA WILL BE MORE SPARSE GIVEN BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT DECENT HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S...ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WARRANTS LOW POPS THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPS
COOLING SLIGHTLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL FROM PULSE STORMS. DRY MID LEVELS COULD
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AS WELL...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DOWNDRAFT CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WILL HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO...BUT THINK THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IS RATHER ISOLATED. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY-MID EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT SLIDES EAST...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...BECOMING ELONGATED IN A
POSITIVE TILT FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...
THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS BASICALLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE LOOKS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR TSRA
TO FORM FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO LEFT CONDITIONS DRY.
IT WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BUT
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN
THE 90S AND AWAY FROM READINGS OVER 100 DEGREES.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE`S MOVEMENT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON ITS HEELS WHICH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON SATURDAY. THEN
BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE MODELS HAVE THE FIRST SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR WINNIPEG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN ND...
FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND TO NORTHWEST SD
BY 00Z MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO FINALLY COALESCED AROUND THE
SURFACE FRONTAL TIMING ON SUNDAY...MOVING IT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...EXITING THE ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE BY
ABOUT 03Z TO 06Z MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ACTING AS A
FOCUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BUT WITH A BULK OF THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS WITH THE FIRST
WAVE TO OUR NORTH...AND THE SECOND WAVE WELL TO OUR WEST...THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS WITH NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND/OR SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY FAIRLY REMOTE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AT ALL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 0-6KM BULK WIND VECTORS ONLY
ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT 12Z SUNDAY. 1KM ML CAPE ALSO
RAPIDLY WANES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...AND BECOMES
NEARLY NON EXISTENT BY 12Z SUNDAY. THAT SAID ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
850-800MB REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ALONG WITH DECENT
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF AROUND -4C AT 850MB ON A
YANKTON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO MARSHALL MN LINE. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
SUBDUED ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. STATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GEM GLOBAL BEING A
FAST OUTLIER THIS TIME AROUND. THEREFORE A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
AND THE 6-9 HOUR QUICKER GFS WAS PREFERRED. THEREFORE WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH...TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
COOLER. AFTER SATURDAYS WARM READINGS...SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE A
MORE SEASONAL 80 TO 85...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REMAINING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
GENERALLY AM EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE THE TYPICAL VISIBILITY DROP
DURING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BUT APPEARS AT THIS TIME AS IF PROSPECT AT THE TAF
SITES REMAINS BELOW A MENTIONABLE THRESHOLD. ALSO...WITH
PRECIPITATION AROUND KHON FROM TODAY MOISTENING UP THE BOUNDARY
LAYER AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASED STABILIZATION TONIGHT NEAR A
WEAK BOUNDARY...COULD SEE A BIT OF FOG DEVELOP. HAVE KEPT AS MVFR
FOR THE TIME...BUT WOULD NOT SAY THAT A BRIEF DIP TOWARD IFR IS
OUT OF THE QUESTION.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1041 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
QUITE A BIT TO DEAL WITH THIS MORNING. CONVECTION WITH WEAK UPPER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE THIS MORNING HAS MAINTAINED AND
EVEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT OF THUNDER
REMAINS QUIET SPOTTY. WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...WITH STRONGEST OF THE UPPER FORCING THIS MORNING
GLANCING ACROSS NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. TOUGH CALL ON THE PRECIPITATION TRENDS TODAY WITH
ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE LACKING AN ADEQUATE SIMULATION OF CURRENT
CONDITIONS. HRRR MARGINALLY USEFUL...BUT APPEARS TO NOT BE
HANDLING THE STRONGER FORCED AREA TO THE NORTHEAST WELL AT ALL.
HAVE PUSHED POPS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER IN THE SHORT TERM IN THE MID
JAMES VALLEY THROUGH HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...AND EXPANDED SOME
SLIGHTS/SPRINKLES DOWN TOWARD I 90 BY VERY LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF TAIL OF WAVE...BUT DRY AIR BELOW MID CLOUD
DECK WILL MAKE THIS SOMEWHAT A STRUGGLE TO REACH THE GROUND.
GIVEN THE DRY LAYER IN THE KABR 12Z RAOB...NO SURPRISE THAT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CREATED A DECENT COLD AIR POOL AND
DISRUPTED THE LOCAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FIELDS. HAD A FEW WIND
GUSTS CLOSE TO 40 MPH WITH LEADING EDGE OF SHOWERS IN EAST CENTRAL
SD...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AS AREA EXPANDS INTO SW MN
AT MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND THE PRECIPITATION
THIS MORNING TAKING A GOOD BITE OUT OF DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE...AS
WILL ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION THIS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE
LOWERED HIGHS SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS...AND IN FACT
HAVE RAISED HIGHS A BIT IN THE FAR SOUTH.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THAT CURRENT CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL CREATE A
CHALLENGE TOWARD DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS LATER TODAY. STILL
HAVE DECENT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO THOSE AREAS WHICH POTENTIALLY
HEAT OUT THE BEST TOWARD THE WEST SHOULD HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE
INSTABILITY PROFILE...AND THE GREATER CHANCE WOULD REMAIN TOWARD
LOWER BRULE LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...WEAK WIND SHEAR WILL KEEP ORGANIZATION
POTENTIAL LIMITED...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND LARGE
HAIL WOULD THE PRIMARY THREAT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA...BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS ON
CONVECTIVE CHANCES AS WEAK RIDGE-TOPPING SHORTWAVE SLIDES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS AND TRIGGERING SPOTTY ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO CENTRAL SD AS
OF 08Z. FEW IF ANY OF THE HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO BE CAPTURING THE
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WELL...THOUGH ADMITTEDLY
WITH CLOUD BASES LARGELY REGISTERING AT OR ABOVE 11KFT...MUCH OF THE
PRECIP SEEN ON RADAR IMAGERY MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND.
NEVERTHELESS...HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO OUR NORTHWEST CORNER FOR
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO WATCH FOR SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT
FARTHER EAST THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 14 CORRIDOR...AS MODELS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT SHOWING A CONVERGENCE ZONE AMID WEAK 850MB WARM ADVECTION
IN THIS AREA AROUND 12Z. AGAIN THINK MOISTURE...OR LACK THEREOF...
MAY BE A LIMITING FACTOR THOUGH...AND OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE EARLY
MORNING POPS THERE AS A RESULT.
THINK MAIN EFFECT OF THE CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL BE TO FORCE A WEAK
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES A BIT FARTHER SOUTH
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD BRING THE CHANCE FOR MID-
LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL. THUS HAVE SHIFTED
POPS CLOSER TO I-90 CORRIDOR FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON EVENING...WITH
BETTER CHANCE STILL EXPECTED NEAR/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL SD...NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD EAST CENTRAL SD AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHWEST MN COUNTIES. AT THIS POINT THINK ACTIVITY
IN OUR AREA WILL BE MORE SPARSE GIVEN BETTER UPPER SUPPORT IS TO OUR
NORTHEAST...BUT DECENT HEATING INTO THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S...ALONG
WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING WARRANTS LOW POPS THROUGH THE WESTERN
AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MID-UPPER LEVEL TEMPS
COOLING SLIGHTLY WITH PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME HAIL FROM PULSE STORMS. DRY MID LEVELS COULD
SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS AS WELL...WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING
DOWNDRAFT CAPE NEAR 1000J/KG IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WILL HAVE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HWO...BUT THINK THREAT OF STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS IS RATHER ISOLATED. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO WIND
DOWN THROUGH THE EARLY-MID EVENING AS TEMPERATURES COOL AND ANY
UPPER SUPPORT SLIDES EAST...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
ON FRIDAY...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...BECOMING ELONGATED IN A
POSITIVE TILT FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS A SHORT WAVE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...
THE RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT BUT REMAINS BASICALLY IN THE SAME
LOCATION ON SATURDAY. THE RIDGE LOOKS TOO MUCH TO OVERCOME FOR TSRA
TO FORM FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY SO LEFT CONDITIONS DRY.
IT WILL ALSO BE VERY WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL. BUT
MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN
THE 90S AND AWAY FROM READINGS OVER 100 DEGREES.
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE`S MOVEMENT EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND A SECOND SHORT WAVE ON ITS HEELS WHICH MOVES INTO OUR
AREA ON SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
COLD FRONT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON SATURDAY. THEN
BY 12Z SUNDAY...THE MODELS HAVE THE FIRST SHORT WAVE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR WINNIPEG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE I 29 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN ND...
FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL ND TO NORTHWEST SD
BY 00Z MONDAY. THE MODELS HAVE ALSO FINALLY COALESCED AROUND THE
SURFACE FRONTAL TIMING ON SUNDAY...MOVING IT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY...EXITING THE ZONES AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE BY
ABOUT 03Z TO 06Z MONDAY. WITH THE SURFACE FRONT ACTING AS A
FOCUS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. BUT WITH A BULK OF THE SHORT WAVE DYNAMICS WITH THE FIRST
WAVE TO OUR NORTH...AND THE SECOND WAVE WELL TO OUR WEST...THERE IS
NOT ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO GO LIKELY POPS WITH NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE.
THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WITH THESE STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND/OR SUNDAY ARE PROBABLY FAIRLY REMOTE IN OUR FORECAST AREA. DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR IS NOT VERY STRONG AT ALL AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...AND BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 0-6KM BULK WIND VECTORS ONLY
ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS AT 12Z SUNDAY. 1KM ML CAPE ALSO
RAPIDLY WANES IN OUR WESTERN ZONES AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...AND BECOMES
NEARLY NON EXISTENT BY 12Z SUNDAY. THAT SAID ELEVATED CAPE AROUND
850-800MB REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY ALONG WITH DECENT
NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES OF AROUND -4C AT 850MB ON A
YANKTON...TO SIOUX FALLS TO MARSHALL MN LINE. WIND SHEAR REMAINS
SUBDUED ON SUNDAY.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN
U.S. STATES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE GEM GLOBAL BEING A
FAST OUTLIER THIS TIME AROUND. THEREFORE A BLEND OF THE SLOWER ECMWF
AND THE 6-9 HOUR QUICKER GFS WAS PREFERRED. THEREFORE WITH THIS
UPPER TROUGH...TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP AGAIN IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS...WITH LITTLE TO NO CHANCES ON
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE
COOLER. AFTER SATURDAYS WARM READINGS...SUNDAYS HIGHS WILL BE A
MORE SEASONAL 80 TO 85...AND GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
REMAINING MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS IN FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE PERIOD COULD BRUSH KHON THROUGH
FIRST 2-3 HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD. THUNDER HAS BEEN SPOTTY...AND
MORE LIKELY TO PASS SOUTH OF KHON SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED TSRA FOR
THE EARLY MORNING AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF I-90 AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. KHON COULD BE AFFECTED BY THE SPOTTY STORMS WITH THIS
REDEVELOPMENT...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/WEST OF KFSD/KSUX AT
THIS TIME. ANY STORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY 04Z-05Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CHAPMAN
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...MJ
AVIATION...JH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
616 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain across the western Big
Country, Concho Valley and Crockett County. At this time, KSJT
looks to have the best chance of being affected by any
thunderstorms this evening, although the majority of convection
should remain west of all the sites. Otherwise, expect light winds
and VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday afternoon.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
UPDATE...
To increase PoPs...
DISCUSSION...
An area of showers and thunderstorms across Fisher County will
continue to move south southwest this evening, likely moving
across parts of Nolan and Sterling Counties and possibly making it
as far south as Irion and Crockett Counties. At this time, it
seems less likely that these storms will affect areas farther
east, but will continue to monitor. The main threat with these
storms will be strong gusty winds and dangerous lightning.
Otherwise, no other changes needed at this time.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Well, models continue to indicate at least slight chance PoPs for
the next 24 hours. Northerly flow aloft will continue for the next
24 hours, and create the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The HRRR indicates isolated convection, across all of West Central
Texas until around midnight. For consistency, continuing slight
chance PoPs for all of tonight and tomorrow looks reasonable;
however, convection beyond midnight until around early afternoon
tomorrow, may be very spotty. The primary hazards, for the next 24
hours, are wind gusts and deadly lightning. With cloud bases around
10K above ground level, micro bursts may produce wind gusts around
45 mph.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Upper high pressure will weaken early next week. This will allow a
moderation in highs...into the mid 90s. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns the second half of next week, as West
Central Texas will be an upper trough...between upper high
pressure over the Southeast and Southwest United States. A weak
cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will also provide a low
level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 96 73 97 / 20 20 5 5
San Angelo 73 97 73 97 / 20 20 5 5
Junction 72 96 72 96 / 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
609 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
To increase PoPs...
&&
.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers and thunderstorms across Fisher County will
continue to move south southwest this evening, likely moving
across parts of Nolan and Sterling Counties and possibly making it
as far south as Irion and Crockett Counties. At this time, it
seems less likely that these storms will affect areas farther
east, but will continue to monitor. The main threat with these
storms will be strong gusty winds and dangerous lightning.
Otherwise, no other changes needed at this time.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Well, models continue to indicate at least slight chance PoPs for
the next 24 hours. Northerly flow aloft will continue for the next
24 hours, and create the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The HRRR indicates isolated convection, across all of West Central
Texas until around midnight. For consistency, continuing slight
chance PoPs for all of tonight and tomorrow looks reasonable;
however, convection beyond midnight until around early afternoon
tomorrow, may be very spotty. The primary hazards, for the next 24
hours, are wind gusts and deadly lightning. With cloud bases around
10K above ground level, micro bursts may produce wind gusts around
45 mph.
Huber
LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Upper high pressure will weaken early next week. This will allow a
moderation in highs...into the mid 90s. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns the second half of next week, as West
Central Texas will be an upper trough...between upper high
pressure over the Southeast and Southwest United States. A weak
cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will also provide a low
level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 96 73 97 / 20 20 5 5
San Angelo 73 97 73 97 / 20 20 5 5
Junction 72 96 72 96 / 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Daniels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
1138 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR WITH LIGHT SE WINDS VEERING S-SW BY THUR AFTN.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR STREAMING WESTWARD
ACROSS TRANS-PECOS AND BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXPANDED ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE HAS RESULTED IN CU FIELD SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE AND FOR NOW
LESS VERTICAL EXTENT.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -10/KM OR MORE ARE RUNNING INTO
ALMOST AS IMPRESSIVE CAPPING INVERSIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THAT SHOULD
KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FROM INITIATING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES OUT OF WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. STREAMLINE SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE I27 CORRIDOR AND ITS SUBSEQUENT CI CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED BY
THE HRRR ALL MORNING HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...WHILE THE RAP HAS
STRUGGLED WITH SIMILAR ISSUES. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TX/NM BORDER
NEAR THE SW TEXAS PANHANDLE CLOSELY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
GIVEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS BUT
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM. ADJUSTED
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
TODAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SEEM GOOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET PROVIDING GOOD VIEWING OF
TONIGHT/S PERSEID METEOR SHOWER PEAKING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE NO
MENTIONABLE POPS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT THERE IS A
NONZERO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING OUR EASTERN ZONES OFF THE
CAPROCK IF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT
IS ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO DRIFT WRD TO ACROSS THE FOUR-
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL BE PARKED THERE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK ON FRIDAY...APPEARING TO
BE COURTESY OF A BIT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. ALTHOUGH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE...A WEAK CAP IS NOTICEABLE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
AROUND 700 MB...THEREBY INSINUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY/WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER...FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL SWITCH TO LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK...NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FROM A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO TO MAKE IT TO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...WHETHER IT WILL BE CONFINED TO NM
/AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS/ OR CLOSER TO THE TX/NM BORDER.
NONETHELESS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION
APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. BY MID-WEEK...AN UA SHORTWAVE POISED TO
MOVE FROM THE NW PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE CWA. WE WILL SEE IF THIS CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION...AS THAT COLD
FRONT COULD BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP.
GIVEN THE UA RIDGE WILL BE NOT BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL
WARM TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD /LOWER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
93
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
938 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...BULK OF CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AND PUSHED SOUTH OF
CWA THIS EVENING. ISOLATED RENEWED DEVELOPMENT HAS FORMED ALONG
WEAKENING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN DANE AND NORTHERN ROCK
COUNTIES. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HOLD TOGETHER FOR NEXT HOUR OR SO BUT
EXPECT DIMINISHING TREND TO CONTINUE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION AND
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXPECT AREAS OF FOG
TO DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT DUE TO WEAKENING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND
CLEARING. LITTLE DRYING SO BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN MOIST. FOG
MAY BECOME DENSE IN A FEW AREAS LATE.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...WILL HIT FOG A LITTLE HARDER LATE TONIGHT
DUE TO AREAS OF CONVECTION ADDING MOISTURE TO THE LOW LEVELS AT
EASTERN TAF SITES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ON SAT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 213 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK WAVES MOVES THROUGH...THOUGH STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS RIGHT NOW. HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AND STILL SHOWS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED POPS FOR NOW.
THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD HANG ON INTO LATE EVENING...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO WENT WITH SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPS. ONLY BIG DIFFERENCE IS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT FROM GETTING AS HOT AS INLAND. MAY
SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE WITHIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A CORRIDOR FROM THE SE TO NW
FORECAST AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE RIDGE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 700 MB WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT REMAIN WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
850 MB WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE MORE...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
TO THE NORTH. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 20 CELSIUS AS
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE. DESPITE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 6 CELSIUS/KM...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB. THEREFORE SUNDAY
SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 28 CELSIUS...SO ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS EXPECTED. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 90. APPEARS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL MIX OUT DEW POINTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEREFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER AREA DROPPING TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AN 115 KNOT 250 MB UPPER JET WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER MONDAY. THIS INCREASES THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT COOLS A
LITTLE AS IT DOES. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 CELSIUS.
THE 850 MB WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AROUND 20 KNOTS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN YET ON THE GFS.
ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE IS WEAKER AT ONLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 JOULES/KG
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.7 CELSIUS/KM. THE GFS HAS
SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY...BUT IT IS FAIRLY LIGHT.
LONG TERM...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY.
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVES THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
TAKES A STRONG LOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PREFER THE WEAKER AND
SLOWER LOW ON THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A ZONAL FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE OF A TROUGH NEAR THE
NORTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY THURSDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING A QUICKER SOUTH FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP A LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STILL THINK A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT TO FORM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
COULD SEE SOME FOG IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A COUPLE MODELS ARE FIRING OFF A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A
CORRIDOR FROM THE SE TO NW FORECAST AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING LEANS EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MBK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT
925-850MB AND WEAK 850-700MB QG FORCING PER THE 13.15Z RAP.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE 13.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE 13.15Z RAP AND 13.12Z NAM SHOW A CAP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THIS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH 06Z...AND AFTER 06Z CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NEXT WEAK IMPULSE MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
WISCONSIN. CONFINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
WARM AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 90S AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLATTENS RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BUILDS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST
925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO PLUS 25 TO PLUS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
FOCUS TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND AMPLIFY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE MODELS SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS HAS MAJOR IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR A BOUNDARY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THIS AFTERNOON AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90 THIS
EVENING. WITH THE CHANCES 20 TO 30 PERCENT...OPTED NOT TO INCLUDE
THEM IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THERE WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN
DECK AT 5 TO 7K FEET WITH A BROKEN 12 TO 15K DECK ABOVE IT.
VISIBILITIES IN THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME IFR/MVFR.
OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE VFR VISIBILITIES. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...WEST
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. THESE GUSTS WILL THEN
DISSIPATE AROUND 14.02Z.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...BOYNE
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER
ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTED FIRING FURTHER EAST THOUGH...ALONG A 1-
2KM MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY...AND IN A REGION OF 800-1200 J/KG OF ML
CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS...WHILE 0-3KM
HELICITY IS APPROX. 250...SO IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK WE
COULD HAVE A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET UPSTREAM.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG REGION THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE DRY IN THAT AREA. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS POSITIONED
ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE START OF THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY IS LOST. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...NOT MUCH TO HANG
YOUR HAT ON. WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHERE A MID-LEVEL DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS PROJECTED TO
STALL OUT. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA...AND AN UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL IS VERY
DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE A DRY ONE AND WILL REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY...THINK THE QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. PROJECTED ML
CAPES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER EASTERN WI (AROUND 3000 J/KG) IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE VIA LAKE
BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE
EAST. MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30KTS. ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE FOUR CORNERS TO GREAT LAKES UPR RDG IS STILL FCST TO WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE TO THE SW CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER. THE MAIN STORY FOR MID-WEEK WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM UPR
RIDGING OVER THE E-CNTRL CONUS. A SURGE OF WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR
INTO WI COULD LEAD TO ADDL PCPN CHCS. TEMPS WL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THRU SUNDAY...FALL A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE AND BEGIN
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS OR TSTMS OVER SRN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING AS THE CDFNT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION. OTHERWISE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES TO DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPR HEIGHTS AS THE NE EXTENT OF THE UPR RDG PUSHES INTO WI. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVRNGT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING
LGT/VRBL...ANTICIPATE SOME LATE NGT FOG TO DEVELOPE AND HAVE ADDED
THIS POTENTIAL TO THE FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
50S NORTH...TO THE LWR TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THE UPR RDG AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD THRU SAT...THEREBY INHIBITING
ANY CHC FOR TSTMS AS A SOLID CAP TO BE IN PLACE. 8H TEMPS IN THE
+20-+22C RANGE...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE MI
(LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCED)...TO THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S INLAND WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S SAT AFTERNOON.
THE SFC HI SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPR RDG STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED
SWD SAT NGT AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. A CDFNT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...BUT BE TOO FAR AWAY TO BRING
ANY PCPN TO NE WI. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY NGT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND PERHAPS MORE PATCHY FOG. FOR THE MOST
PART...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE. EVEN
THO THE BETTER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO LIFT E-NE INTO
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THE CDFNT WL CONT TO PUSH EWD AND IMPINGE ON
N-CNTRL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL QUITE WARM ON
SUNDAY (8H TEMPS +18 TO +21C) AND MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RUN ALONG THE FNT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ONLY MENTIONING A SMALL CHC POP FOR N-CNTRL WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF NE WI WL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER VERY WARM/HUMID DAY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 90 DEGS ACROSS
E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM NE TO SW WI BY 12Z MON AND EXIT
E-CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY MON. INSTABILITY DOES WEAKEN SUNDAY NGT
AS THE FNT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET WHICH WL ONLY ADD
TO THE LIFT ALONG WITH THE CDFNT. HI CHC OR LIKELY POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THESE POPS
THEN SHIFTED SE ON MON. NRN WI SHOULD BE ABLE TO END THE PCPN CHCS
BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE FNT PULLS AWAY AND HI PRES STARTS TO
SETTLE SE TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS ON MON
WL BE VASTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CLOUDS/PCPN/CDFNT IN
THE AREA. READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 70S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 70S SOUTH.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MON NGT AND TUE AS THE SFC
HI TO RESIDE FROM ONTARIO TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS MON
NGT COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL WI...
WHILE THE REST OF AREA WL SEE THE 50S. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH AROUND 70S DEGS LAKESIDE...LWR TO MID 70S NORTH
AND MID TO UPR 70S SOUTH.
A NEW AND STRONG-LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TUE NGT TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY NEXT THU. DOWNSTREAM
UPR RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
WI WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH ISEN LIFT AND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...
A WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE
TIMING OF ALL THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN...
PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NGT THRU THU. MAX TEMPS AT
MID-WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD BUT WITH A
COUPLE POTENTIAL PITFALLS. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCERTAIN...AND COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAF
FORECAST. IF STORMS DO DEVELOP...GUSTY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER ABOUT 01-02Z THIS EVENING...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN WISCONSIN.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1140 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AS
EVIDENT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 19Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE 12.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
THURSDAY. FIRST IMPULSE OVER-TOPPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 18Z
THURSDAY. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/12.17Z HRRR SUGGEST
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS IS
EVIDENT...WITH THE 12.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE WEAKENING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY...AS THE 12.12Z MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING SURFACE FRONT WITH IMPULSE
COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER-TOPPING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST 12.12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT
WITH THIS IMPULSE. WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT/OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE 12.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE
925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO PLUS 25 TO PLUS 27 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE LOWER 90S.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 12.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FEATURES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST IMPULSE
FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MAIN ENERGY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NEXT
FEATURE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 12.12Z GFS/ECMWF ON
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE MODELS SUGGEST
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/TRANSPORT AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE FEATURE. BASED ON TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 14.06Z. THERE STILL IS
A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
LATE IN THE PERIOD AS A SURFACE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE REGION...
BUT LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION IN 13.06Z TAFS.
ANY CEILINGS THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE 10000 FT AGL OR HIGHER.
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
INTO THE LOW 20 KT RANGE AT BOTH KRST/KLSE. WHEREAS WINDS WILL
SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH LATE IN THE PERIOD AT KLSE...EXPECT A MORE
WESTERLY WIND AT KRST.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1120 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
CURRENTLY...
SCT STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ONE
ROUGE SHOWER WAS OVER NORTHERN BENT COUNTY. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER
THE HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS
WITH 80S IN THE VALLEYS. LLVL MSTR IS A BIT LESS TODAY THEN PAST
DAYS...AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE CAPE OVER THE REGION AS VALUES
WERE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE YDAY...HRRR HAS BEEN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH CONVECTION
TODAY. EARLIER RUNS WERE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. HRRR STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS IS STILL CONCEIVABLY POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW PLAYED UP POPS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR THE PLAINS...BELIEVE LARGE
MAJORITY OF PLAINS (AWAY FROM THE MTNS) WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A
ROUGE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS. ANY STORM OVER THE REGION TODAY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATELLITE WAT VAPOR IMGY STILL
SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OVER THE AREA. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE
THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS IN WHICH IT RAINED HEAVILY LAST NIGHT.
FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD COME
TO AN END AS LITTLE FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY...
WX SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX AS UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
STAGNANT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND WEAK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. . MOST PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MTNS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LONGER TERM WITH POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
BEING PRIMARY CONCERNS.
INITIALLY...RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE 12Z/14TH GFS40 SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT
A RELATIVELY HEALTHY UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY MORNING MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z/14TH ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES THAT
A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UTAH/NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO REGION TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATER
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE SURGES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE TO ABUNDANT DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...SURFACE SURGES/BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVE POPS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IF THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION IS ACCURATE. STORMS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MAY BE INTENSE/STRONG
AT TIMES. THEN...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED BY
LATE WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SHOULD GENERALLY RUN AT OR ABOVE MID-AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...WITH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF BEING NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY
ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH AT KCOS AND KPUB...WHILE REMAINING LIGHT AT
KALS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH KCOS SEEING THE BEST CHANCE OF VCTS
NEAR THE TERMINAL. -KT
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
1148 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO SUPPORTING WEAK
WAA. AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CU IN NORTHEAST IOWA INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IS OF INTEREST AS A POTENTIAL IGNITION POINT FOR
STORMS...THOUGH LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
TO HAMPER THAT PROCESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR AND RAP SEEM A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE OR AT LEAST TOO FAST IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE CURRENTLY
INDICATES NOT MUCH MORE THAN MODERATE CU. PLENTY OF CAPE IS
AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE
STORMS. AT THIS POINT PLAN ON FOCUSING LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA JUST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SINCE
DIURNAL FORCING IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL WITH
NEITHER A FOCUS NOR A TRIGGER AVAILABLE DESPITE A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS. WOLF
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP IN PLACE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 20C. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM UPPER MI TO CENTRAL MN AND THEN TO FAR NW KS. WITH THE CAPPING
ATMOSPHERE AND NO TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND
90 OR THE LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...SUCH AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF
STORM SYSTEMS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS ENTIRE WEEK...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AN
EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER THE CWA. WAVES IN
THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS INDICATES A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IN THE MIDWEST BY MID WEEK...AND THEN
DRY AFTERWARDS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE UPSTREAM ENERGY. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
DETAILS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
OUTSIDE OF SOME PATCHY 2-6SM FOG AROUND DAYBREAK EXPECT VFR CONDS
WITH LIGHT S/SW WINDS.
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
458 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY RESULTING IN NRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND STRONG CAPPING OVER THE AREA...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB TEMPS THAT CLIMB TO
AROUND 20C SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR 90 OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 NEAR LAKE MI. OVER THE
NORTH...LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF
WITH TEMPS STILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS INCREASING
SW WINDS DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SUNDAY...ONE LAST WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE BEFORE SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TAKE OVER FOR THE WORK WEEK. 850 HPA TEMPS NEARING
20C COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. DECENT SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 750 AND 850 HPA ALONG WITH MINIMAL
FORCING SHOULD EITHER INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...OR DESTROY ANY
APPROACHING PRECIP.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING OR ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI AT 00Z MONDAY. AS SUNDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN ACTIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE TO A 120KT UPPER JET WILL
ALIGN WITH A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PRODUCE A SHORT...BUT POTENT STRIP OF FORCING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO
40 KTS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
EVENING AS THIS FORCING INCREASES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT SIGNIFICANT DCAPE FROM ANTECEDENT DRY AIR ABOVE 750
HPA MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY LOW-LEVEL STABILITY TO PRODUCE
STRONG SFC WINDS. THE CHANCE IS QUITE CONDITIONAL UPON THE TIMELY
ALIGNMENT OF THE DEEP FORCING AND THE SFC FRONT. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE SFC FRONT SLIGHTLY...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF AS THE DEEP FORCING IS SLOW
TO EXIT. SOME DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOLYSIS WILL END
MOST OF THE PRECIP BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THE LOW-
LEVEL FRONT FROM SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL HAVE STALLED ACROSS WI AND
LOWER MI BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE WI BORDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE RISE FOR THE
FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WAA PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...A PROLONGED
PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL FGEN...MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV...AND A SERIES
OF JET STREAKS...WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WED AND WED
NIGHT. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT GROWING...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR WED.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SOME PATCHY FOG WL IMPACT MAINLY SAW OVERNGT...WITH VSBYS POSSIBLY
TO LO END MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR A TIME. A BIT STRONGER SW WIND AT CMX
AND IWD WL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR PERSISTENT FOG DESPITE LO TEMP/
DEWPT DEPRESSIONS AT TAF ISSUANCE. ANY FOG WL BURN OFF AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING THRU THE REST OF THE
FCST PERIOD. STRENGTHENING SW FLOW TNGT MAY RESULT IN SOME LLWS
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...A LOW WILL
MOVE FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO...AND TO JAMES BAY LATE
ON SUNDAY WHILE DEEPENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25
KTS...HOWEVER SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR
30 KTS AT THE HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL CROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
351 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF
VALENTINE AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE
POINT OF A DRYLINE BULGE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE. THE BEST GUESS ON CAPE WOULD BE 3500J/KG WHICH ISNT
MUCH RELATIVE TO THE 16C TEMPERATURE AT 700MB. STILL THE RAP AND
OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING DESTABLIZATION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NCNTL SANDHILLS FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER SOLNS AND STILL USES
THE LESS DEEPLY MIXED MODELS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THIS PRODUCES HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND
NCNTL NEB.
STORM CHANCES SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 22Z AND INITIALLY...THE
BUNKER RIGHT MOTION IS VERY WEAK SUGGESTING OUTFLOW DOMINANT
BEHAVIOR. WINDS ALOFT AT 300 MB INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND STORM MOTION SHOULD TAKE OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AND MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ALL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NAM MAINTAINS
2500J/KG OF 750MB COMPUTED CAPE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD WHICH
SUGGESTS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BEFORE THIS INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA
AROUND 06Z. THUS INITIALLY THE STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MORE
DOMINANT THREAT TONIGHT. SPC GIVES THE FCST AREA A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA TO
START THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SE DURING
THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY AS WE WARM
UP...ALTHOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN
THE 80S. MODELS WAVERING ON HOW FAR TO THE NW OF THE FRONT
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IN NW CWA. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE WILL HAVE FLATTEN DUE TO
NORTHERN TROUGH. MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES TO
BRING SOME ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION.
SOME CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SLOWING STORM MOTION TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AND PWATS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...AND LOCALLY PUSHING
CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
TUESDAY. MODELS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL GIVE THE FRONT
A PUSH SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS BECOMING
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 10C. AT THE SFC...MOS GUIDANCE HAS FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. TRENDED COOLER
WITH TEMPS...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP THAT COLD JUST YET. IT IS
STILL AUGUST AND WANT TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE COLD MODEL
DEPICTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER TO END THE WEEK. ALSO SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AT BOTH
THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MAY PUSH
INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL...THERE IS AN INCREASED RISK FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 02Z SUNDAY AND WILL HANDLE THIS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-025-026-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
300 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. OTHERWISE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED STAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ITS HOLD AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO EVEN CONSIDER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT NUDGES WESTWARD AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM. FORECAST
SOUNDING DATA SHOWS STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY AND NEVER
COMPLETELY ERODING AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM. THE ONLY POSSIBLE HELP COULD
COME FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT DECAYED EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
REACHING INTO EASTERN SAN BERN, CLARK AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE KESX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOW NO
DISCERNIBLE CHANGE AS THESE REMNANT CLOUDS PASSED THROUGH. MODEL
FORECAST DATA SHOWS NO OTHER EMBEDDED FEATURE THAT WOULD PROVIDE A
LIFTING MECHANISM SO DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROVIDER OF
LIFT TODAY. THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING FROM CELLS
THIS AFTERNOON IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS SO
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS IN THESE AREAS. UNLESS I`M
MISSING SOME MICROSCALE FEATURE OR MI-NUTE DETAIL IN THE MODEL DATA,
MY GUESS IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN LAS VEGAS ARE SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO IMPACTS FROM HEAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS ARE 102 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND SO THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS MORE THAN LIKELY TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE AREA BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE IT FEEL ON
THE MUGGY SIDE. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS IN MANY DESERT AREAS AND IN SOME ISOLATED CASES...MAY
BREAK RECORDS. NO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LAS
VEGAS BUT AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS 114-
118 DEGREES WHILE DEATH VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS APPROACHING 125
DEGREES. IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND, REMEMBER TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO DEAL WITH THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS AND
KEEP IN MIND THE SYMPTOMS AND NECESSARY ACTIONS NEEDED TO DEAL WITH
ANY HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE WE WILL NOT COOL DOWN QUITE
AS FAST AS WAS INDICATED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS IS DUE TO
KEEPING A GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH FURTHER INLAND AS IT TRACKS DOWN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION AND
WILL ALLOW THE STRONG CLOSED HIGH TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BROADER TROUGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND BACK TO NORMAL THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT WHEN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY...
MAINLY THE NORTHERN REGIONS...AND THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SALMEN/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS MIRRORING THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS THE ENERGY FROM THE
VORT MAX RIDES UP THE ADIRONDACKS SO I DID REINTRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED WORDING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THE CLEARING THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY I ANTICIPATE SOME FOG DEVELOPING HOWEVER
I`M NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT HOW LARGE THE AREA WILL BE SO I JUST
ADDED IN FOG TO THE CLIMO FAVOURED AREAS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAMOILLE RIVER VALLEY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1050 PM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HAVE REDUCED POPS AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
REFLECT THIS DIMINISHED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LIMITED DESPITE THE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOOKING AT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN...WITH ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER COMING MORE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING A BIT. NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE OF SITUATIONS
SO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD LOOKS GOOD.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND NO PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 327 AM EDT SATURDAY...CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. ANOMOLOUSLY STRONG 500MB NORTH
PACIFIC RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DOWNSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
PAC NW AND NRN PLAINS...WHILE UPPER RIDGING PERSISTS IN THE MEAN
ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER...PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTING NEWD FROM THE
UPR MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES AND SHEARING OUT TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST COULD BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER/MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS BY
FRIDAY BASED ON 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF . IN THE
INTERIM...MAINTAINENCE OF S-SW LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND HUMID AIR MASS
(MID TO UPR 60S DEWPOINTS) WITH 850MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF +16C WILL
YIELD DAILY HIGH TEMPS IN THE 85-90F RANGE TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CHANCES EXIST FOR A FEW AIR MASS TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY...BUT OVERALL
ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED BY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND OVERALL LACK OF STRONG SYNOPTIC- SCALE CONVERGENCE. POPS
GENERALLY 20-40 PERCENT RANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAY SEE MORE
ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL UPPER TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL
PASSAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MIXED CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
COMPACT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND INTO VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS/SLK THROUGH 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND MOIST LOW-LVL CONDITIONS. A FEW BREAKS FURTHER EAST WILL YIELD
POTENTIAL LIFR FOG AT MPV 08-12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS NRN NY 08-12Z...AND THEN
AREAWIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL HEATING
AND UPPER LOW PASSAGE. GENERALLY CARRIED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT AFTER 13-14Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN TIMING AND
OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINITY AT INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS. WINDS LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 5-6 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT WEST TO NW.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT NEAR THE INTL BORDER. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY VFR ON BALANCE FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS MIRRORING THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS THE ENERGY FROM THE
VORT MAX RIDES UP THE ADIRONDACKS SO I DID REINTRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED WORDING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THE CLEARING THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY I ANTICIPATE SOME FOG DEVELOPING HOWEVER
I`M NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT HOW LARGE THE AREA WILL BE SO I JUST
ADDED IN FOG TO THE CLIMO FAVOURED AREAS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAMOILLE RIVER VALLEY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1050 PM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HAVE REDUCED POPS AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
REFLECT THIS DIMINISHED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LIMITED DESPITE THE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOOKING AT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN...WITH ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER COMING MORE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING A BIT. NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE OF SITUATIONS
SO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD LOOKS GOOD.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND NO PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS
MORNING`S EXTENDED FORECAST. STRONG NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE STILL
LOOKS TO KEEP UPPER RIDGING IN THE MEAN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +18C IN ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORTING VALLEY HIGHS
88-92F MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING SEWD
FROM ONTARIO BRINGING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY (40-50 POPS)...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
FRONT QUICKLY DISSIPATES/WASHES OUT AND NEXT SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
SWLY FLOW AND HIGHER HUMIDITY BRINGS HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID
TO POSSIBLE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED 20-30
POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH OUT AT DAY 7 FOR NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...MIXED CLOUD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
COMPACT UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SERN ONTARIO TRANSLATES EWD ACROSS
NORTHERN NY AND INTO VERMONT LATER THIS MORNING. WILL SEE SOME
MVFR CEILINGS AT MSS/SLK THROUGH 12Z ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
AND MOIST LOW-LVL CONDITIONS. A FEW BREAKS FURTHER EAST WILL YIELD
POTENTIAL LIFR FOG AT MPV 08-12Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. ALSO HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS NRN NY 08-12Z...AND THEN
AREAWIDE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL HEATING
AND UPPER LOW PASSAGE. GENERALLY CARRIED VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS
POINT AFTER 13-14Z THROUGH EARLY EVENING GIVEN TIMING AND
OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINITY AT INDIVIDUAL AIRPORTS. WINDS LIGHT AND
LESS THAN 5-6 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
SOUTH THROUGH 12Z...THEN BECOMING LIGHT WEST TO NW.
OUTLOOK 12Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WASHES OUT NEAR THE INTL BORDER. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME SHOWERS/TSTMS
POSSIBLE WITH HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
SHOWERS OR TSTMS COULD RESULT IN BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS...BUT GENERALLY VFR ON BALANCE FOR THE PERIOD.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
143 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY DEVELOPING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...AND IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90
ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 132 AM EDT SATURDAY...AS THE 500 MB TROUGH SLIDES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH IS NOW LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS MIRRORING THE
CANADIAN BORDER FROM LAKE ERIE THROUGH LAKE ONTARIO. LATEST HRRR
AND RAP GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MCS THAT IS CURRENTLY ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THESE MODELS DO DEVELOP A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS AS THE ENERGY FROM THE
VORT MAX RIDES UP THE ADIRONDACKS SO I DID REINTRODUCE SOME
ISOLATED WORDING BACK INTO THE FORECAST AS THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THE CLEARING THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY I ANTICIPATE SOME FOG DEVELOPING HOWEVER
I`M NOT ENTIRELY CONFIDENT HOW LARGE THE AREA WILL BE SO I JUST
ADDED IN FOG TO THE CLIMO FAVOURED AREAS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER
VALLEY AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE LAMOILLE RIVER VALLEY AS WELL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1050 PM EDT FRIDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING JUST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
VERMONT. EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY TO COME TO AN END AROUND
MIDNIGHT. HAVE REDUCED POPS AGAIN FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO
REFLECT THIS DIMINISHED SHOWER ACTIVITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT FRIDAY...UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LIMITED DESPITE THE MORE FAVORABLE DYNAMIC SUPPORT AND LOOKING AT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AGAIN...WITH ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER COMING MORE
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL BE WEAKENING AND
INSTABILITY INCREASING A BIT. NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE OF SITUATIONS
SO THE IDEA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...
ESPECIALLY FROM THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS EASTWARD LOOKS GOOD.
RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND BECOMES ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
WARMING TREND TO TAKE PLACE. LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S ON SATURDAY...BUT THEN IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 ON SUNDAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUN AND NO PRECIPITATION.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 334 PM EDT FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED SINCE THIS
MORNING`S EXTENDED FORECAST. STRONG NORTH PACIFIC RIDGE STILL
LOOKS TO KEEP UPPER RIDGING IN THE MEAN ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST.
MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
850MB TEMPS AROUND +18C IN ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORTING VALLEY HIGHS
88-92F MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY BREAKS DOWN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE SHIFTING SEWD
FROM ONTARIO BRINGING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY (40-50 POPS)...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S.
FRONT QUICKLY DISSIPATES/WASHES OUT AND NEXT SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL
SWLY FLOW AND HIGHER HUMIDITY BRINGS HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID
TO POSSIBLE UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED 20-30
POPS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH OUT AT DAY 7 FOR NEXT CHANCE OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME MVFR IN STRATUS AND POSSIBLE LIGHT FOG
OVERNIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT MPV/SLK. SHOWERS ARE COMING TO
AN END THIS EVENING...HOWEVER MULTIPLE DECKS OF VFR CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LOWER
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...WITH MVFR LIKELY FOR A TIME AT
SLK/MPV. ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT FOG/BR DEVELOPMENT AS A
WHOLE...BUT WITH AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...AND SOME RAINFALL TODAY...SOME PATCHY FOG/BR MAY BE
AROUND. GREATEST RISK OF FOG/BR WILL BE AT SLK/MPV FROM 06Z-
12Z...AND HAVE SHOWN 3SM BR FOR NOW. CEILINGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
AND/OR SCATTER OUT SATURDAY MORNING BY 15Z AT THE LATEST. SOME
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG A COLD FRONT ALSO LIKELY
AS IT PROGRESSES FROM NW TO SE. HAVE SHOWN VCSH FOR NOW. WINDS
LIGHT AND LESS THAN 5-6 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY OUT
OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE TURNING NORTHWEST
AFTERWARDS.
OUTLOOK 00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE
MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...MUCCILLI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
413 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DECAYING MCS IS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE PCPN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT
PUSHES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA.
ASSUMING THE CLOUDS FROM THE MCS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH ITS
INSTABILITY BUT EVEN THE GFS AND RAP ARE INDICATING ML CAPES
PUSHING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA...DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A SHEARED
OUT VORT AXIS IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME POSSIBLE
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE CURRENT DECAYING MCS...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT WIND
FLOW ALL THE WAY UP TO 300 MB THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT
STORMS TO BE FAIRLY PULSY AND SLOW MOVING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT AS WE DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL LIMIT POPS
TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA TUESDAY EVENING.
A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE UPPER CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA
THIS MORNING. THE LINE HAS CONTINUED TO SLOW AND WEAKEN AS IT
PUSHES SOUTH BUT STILL SHOWS SIGNS OF NEW STORM GENERATION OUT IN
FRONT. THERE IS A THREAT FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO MAKE IT TO
KDAY/ KCMH/ AND KLCK IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE FIZZLING
OUT.
THIS AFTERNOON THE LEFTOVER BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION
ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ALLOW STORMS TO
REDEVELOP. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX
VALUES IS THE UPPER 30S. THE GREATEST CHANCE OF THUNDER APPEARS TO
BE NORTH OF KCVG AND KLUK CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY HAVE ADDED THUNDER TO ALL TAF SITES. COVERAGE SHOULD
THEN DECREASE AS THE SUN GOES DOWN AND DAY TIME HEATING IS LOST.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
521 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
SETTLED DOWN OVER LAKE ONTARIO UNDER AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO INDIANA. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO
BE HELPING FOCUS A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT MCS IN THE VICINITY OF
BUFFALO WHERE RADAR IS ESTIMATING 5+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
RADAR LOOKS NOT UNLIKE A GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT GIVEN HOW THE
STORMS SEEM ANCHORED TO THE LAKE SHORE AND KEEP TRAINING OVER THE
SAME AREA.
THE FUTURE OF THIS BOUNDARY/UPPER SHEAR ZONE COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
THE WEATHER FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS HINT THAT THEY WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN NY/NRN PA LATER
TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT HANDLED THE
SYSTEM WELL...ALSO SHOW IT WEAKENING AS THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE
YIELDS TO THE RIDGE THAT IS MADE TO BUILD IN STRONGLY FROM THE MID
WEST AND GR LAKES.
FOR TODAY THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF I80 ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL DEVELOP A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE BY AFTERNOON. THE GEFS SHOWS THE BEST
CAPE FAVORING NWRN PA WHILE THE SREF IS MORE UNSTABLE OVER A
BROADER AREA OF NRN AND NWRN PA. BY 18Z/2PM LOCAL THE HRRR SHOWS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION FROM SRN NY BACK INTO NW PA. NO
REASON TO THINK THIS WILL NOT DEVELOP FURTHER AND CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
I DROPPED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT USING THE BUILDING RIDGE
AS A BELIEVABLE REASON TO PUT A LID ON WHATEVER CONVECTION MANAGES
TO FORM LATER TODAY.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE BEEN KEPT AT BAY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
SLOWLY UPWARD UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE OPPRESSIVELY HUMID...BUT NOT QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS IT HAS
BEEN ON RECENT DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY
WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WHICH I CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S
EVERYWHERE...WILL APPROACH 90 OVER SERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL FAVOR A MEAN RIDGE AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL DAYS OF SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT
OF A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF NOW PRETTY MUCH
WASH THE FRONT...BUT USE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN CHANCES.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYING
COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO REAL CHANGE FOR THE 09Z TAF PACKAGE.
CONVECTION OFF LAKE ERIE A LITTLE WEAKER NOW...ACTING A LOT
LIKE THE EVENT WE HAD BACK LAST NOVEMBER...WHEN WE HAD RECORD
COLD AIR EARLY IN THE SEASON AND SNOW SQUAALS. .
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE TO THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE FLOW OF AIR OFF THE LAKES HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...HAVE VCSH IN BFD LATE TODAY...BEHIND
WIND SHIFT LINE. LEFT MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF OTHER SITES FOR
NOW. PATTERN IS RATHER COMPLEX. SOME MODELS WANT TO BUILD AN
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NY AND PA.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS N MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
451 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
SETTLED DOWN OVER LAKE ONTARIO UNDER AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO INDIANA. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO
BE HELPING FOCUS A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT MCS IN THE VICINITY OF
BUFFALO WHERE RADAR IS ESTIMATING 5+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
RADAR LOOKS NOT UNLIKE A GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT GIVEN HOW THE
STORMS SEEM ANCHORED TO THE LAKE SHORE AND KEEP TRAINING OVER THE
SAME AREA.
THE FUTURE OF THIS BOUNDARY/UPPER SHEAR ZONE COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
THE WEATHER FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS HINT THAT THEY WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN NY/NRN PA LATER
TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT HANDLED THE
SYSTEM WELL...ALSO SHOW IT WEAKENING AS THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE
YIELDS TO THE RIDGE THAT IS MADE TO BUILD IN STRONGLY FROM THE MID
WEST AND GR LAKES.
FOR TODAY THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF I80 ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL DEVELOP A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE BY AFTERNOON. THE GEFS SHOWS THE BEST
CAPE FAVORING NWRN PA WHILE THE SREF IS MORE UNSTABLE OVER A
BROADER AREA OF NRN AND NWRN PA. BY 18Z/2PM LOCAL THE HRRR SHOWS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION FROM SRN NY BACK INTO NW PA. NO
REASON TO THINK THIS WILL NOT DEVELOP FURTHER AND CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
I DROPPED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT USING THE BUILDING RIDGE
AS A BELIEVABLE REASON TO PUT A LID ON WHATEVER CONVECTION MANAGES
TO FORM LATER TODAY.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE BEEN KEPT AT BAY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
SLOWLY UPWARD UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE OPPRESSIVELY HUMID...BUT NOT QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS IT HAS
BEEN ON RECENT DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY
WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WHICH I CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S
EVERYWHERE...WILL APPROACH 90 OVER SERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL FAVOR A MEAN RIDGE AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL DAYS OF SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT
OF A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF NOW PRETTY MUCH
WASH THE FRONT...BUT USE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN CHANCES.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYING
COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE TO THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE FLOW OF AIR OFF THE LAKES HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...HAVE VCSH IN BFD LATE TODAY...BEHIND
WIND SHIFT LINE. LEFT MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF OTHER SITES FOR
NOW. PATTERN IS RATHER COMPLEX. SOME MODELS WANT TO BUILD AN
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NY AND PA.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS N MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
437 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
A QUIET MID-AUGUST MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
ONE LONE SHOWER EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE HAS HEAVY ENOUGH RETURNS
TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND AS IT APPROACHES
KGWX AND MONROE COUNTY. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM...
THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH REMAINING DRY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER TODAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH EAST. THE HRRR KEEPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEST OF THE
MS RIVER. THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND LOWER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LONG TERM...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWS NEAR 70 AND CHANCES OF STORMS EACH EVENING.THE BEST
CHANCES OF AREA WIDE PRECIP DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MATRICULATES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
WITH IT COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. REDUCED VSBYS...POTENTIALLY
TO IFR...WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY TONIGHT.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS AN INVERTED SURFACE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO VICINITY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AT KTUP...KMKL...AND KMEM BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY AT 7 KTS OR
LESS ON SATURDAY. CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH SATURDAY EVENING WITH
LIGHT WINDS.
JLH
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW INCHED UPWARD AND ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE ARE GETTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT. GFS
ELUDES TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS TOWARD 12Z. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF LIGHT ISOL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND THIS
AREA NORTHWARD WITH FAIRLY DESCENT COVERAGE. IT APPEARS...SO
FAR...THAT THIS IS OVERDONE HOWEVER. SO FOR THE FCST TODAY...WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS EVERYWHERE.
THEN...I WILL INCREASE THAT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
ELEVATION IN MOISTURE LEVELS. NOT SEEING ANY APPARENT OVERNIGHT
DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK. WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE GENERALLY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...EXCEPT
FOR 30 PERCENT PLATEAU ON SUN AFT.
BY MONDAY...MRH LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT AS THE UPPER TROUGH ERODES AND
WESTERLIES ATTEMPT TO RETURN. WILL STILL CARRY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS CONVECTIVE ENERGY REMAINS.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY GO ABOVE THE MAV NUMBERS BY A DEGREE OR SO
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM(TUE-FRI)...
CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE OF A SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN THRU MID WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN
MOVING IN FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID STATE
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BASICALLY
KEEP THE MID STATE UNDER A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THRU THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY
OR NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A SLY/SWLY SFC MOISTURE FETCH PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO PER MID ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...NO SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES OF NOTE
ANTICIPATED. THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN FLOW ALOFT...INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL ATM MOISTURE POTENTIAL...
ALONG WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AFFECTS...SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THRU NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH PTCLDY SKIES. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HIGH AND LOW TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES ALSO THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 67 89 69 / 30 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 81 63 83 66 / 30 20 30 20
COLUMBIA 86 65 90 66 / 30 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 87 66 89 67 / 30 20 20 20
WAVERLY 87 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1004 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH THEN DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT THE
LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE LOCATED ACROSS UPSTATE NY TO
THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE WILL BE WEAKENING THROUGH THE DAY AS
HEIGHTS RISE AND SUBSIDENCE INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST HRRR...STONY BROOK WRF...AND RAP KEEP THE REGION DRY TODAY
AS ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST
STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR ISO SHOWER/STORM...BUT EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED INHIBITING FACTORS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHT CONTINUE TO RISE.
HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE AS
SEAS BREEZES DEVELOPING. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS AND AND TROUGHS REMAIN TO THE WEST. WILL
HAVE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS PASS BY THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ON A MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
SUNDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT DICTATES ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE N AROUND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCE
SHRA/TSTMS THEN WITH AN EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING CWA
WIDE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - MAINLY FROM
THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
THE AIR TEMPERATURE...SO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE...NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE 90S IN
URBAN AREAS.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW FORECASTING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO
GENERALLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTS...WHICH IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FORECAST AIR
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU THE
WEEKEND.
SW FLOW TODAY...GENERALLY AOB 10KT. STRONGER FLOW THIS AFTN KJFK
WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT AND WINDS BACKED TO THE S.
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN/EVE
SHWRS AND TSTMS...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR THIS ACTIVITY N AND W OF THE CITY
TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT-ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.TUE...VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT-ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS. S FLOW.
.WED...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. S FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN OVER THE
WRN OCEAN AND INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS MON-WED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES
OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MET
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
1051 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE...A WEAK BOUNDARY CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM ROUGHLY
HOULTON TO NORTH OF GREENVILLE. WE`RE JUST STARTING TO SEE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS POP UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
WESTERN MAINE IN THE VICINITY OF THIS FRONT. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING.
THERE`LL BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY EARLY AFTERNOON, SO HAVE INCREASED POPS A
BIT TO LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
NOTE THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS WITH
MINIMAL FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE (PWATS OF 1.5
TO 1.75 INCHES), FEEL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A THREAT WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE, THE
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
THE REGION WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY TO
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN DOWNEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WORKING WITH CAPES UP
TO 1000 J/KG AND SOME HEATING WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER DOWNEAST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF,
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HOWEVER, WITH WINDS LIGHT BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE, SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BECOME
PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY
AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. TONIGHT WILL BECOME CLEAR. SOME
ISOLATED POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS
TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SUMMER MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
FRONT WEST OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBLE BRIEF EXCEPTIONS OF THUNDERSHOWERS DOWNEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSHOWER ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/DUMONT
AVIATION...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/HASTINGS/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
620 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6:20 AM UPDATE...ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE ADDED TO NORTH CENTRAL
AREAS WHERE THE LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SOME VERY
SMALL SPOTTY SHOWERS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE DECREASED FROM
NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DOWNEAST WHERE SOME SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED, BUT WITH LESS COVERAGE THAT PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE
AREA THIS MORNING THEN DOWNEAST THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SURFACE
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WORKING WITH CAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG AND SOME
HEATING WILL PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER DOWNEAST AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF, LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
HOWEVER, WITH WINDS LIGHT BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY SUNNY OVER THE
NORTH. ANY SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
OFFSHORE. TONIGHT WILL BECOME CLEAR. SOME ISOLATED POCKETS OF
PATCHY FOG ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SURFACE/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERN MAINE LATER MONDAY NIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS LATE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED DOWNEAST MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SUNDAY/MONDAY.
SOME LOCATIONS WILL REACH 90 DEGREES FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS
SUMMER MONDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH IN THE FORM OF A WARM
FRONT WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY. EXPECT PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY...WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION. COULD ALSO STILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY THEN EXISTS REGARDING
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT FRIDAY. THE MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL
SOLUTIONS BRING THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...WHILE THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS KEEP THE
FRONT WEST OF THE REGION INTO SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY...THOUGH THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE EVENTUAL TIMING OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH NEAR
NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH
THE POSSIBLE BRIEF EXCEPTIONS OF THUNDERSHOWERS DOWNEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. VARIABLE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: THERE MAY BE A THUNDERSHOWER ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...BLOOMER
SHORT TERM...NORCROSS
LONG TERM...NORCROSS/DUMONT
AVIATION...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
MARINE...BLOOMER/NORCROSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY RESULTING IN NRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND STRONG CAPPING OVER THE AREA...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB TEMPS THAT CLIMB TO
AROUND 20C SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR 90 OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 NEAR LAKE MI. OVER THE
NORTH...LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF
WITH TEMPS STILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS INCREASING
SW WINDS DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SUNDAY...ONE LAST WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE BEFORE SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TAKE OVER FOR THE WORK WEEK. 850 HPA TEMPS NEARING
20C COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. DECENT SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 750 AND 850 HPA ALONG WITH MINIMAL
FORCING SHOULD EITHER INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...OR DESTROY ANY
APPROACHING PRECIP.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING OR ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI AT 00Z MONDAY. AS SUNDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN ACTIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE TO A 120KT UPPER JET WILL
ALIGN WITH A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PRODUCE A SHORT...BUT POTENT STRIP OF FORCING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO
40 KTS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
EVENING AS THIS FORCING INCREASES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT SIGNIFICANT DCAPE FROM ANTECEDENT DRY AIR ABOVE 750
HPA MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY LOW-LEVEL STABILITY TO PRODUCE
STRONG SFC WINDS. THE CHANCE IS QUITE CONDITIONAL UPON THE TIMELY
ALIGNMENT OF THE DEEP FORCING AND THE SFC FRONT. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE SFC FRONT SLIGHTLY...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF AS THE DEEP FORCING IS SLOW
TO EXIT. SOME DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOLYSIS WILL END
MOST OF THE PRECIP BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THE LOW-
LEVEL FRONT FROM SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL HAVE STALLED ACROSS WI AND
LOWER MI BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE WI BORDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE RISE FOR THE
FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WAA PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...A PROLONGED
PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL FGEN...MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV...AND A SERIES
OF JET STREAKS...WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WED AND WED
NIGHT. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT GROWING...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR WED.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 752 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN CONDITIONS APPROACHING
LLWS CRITERA TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...A LOW WILL
MOVE FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO...AND TO JAMES BAY LATE
ON SUNDAY WHILE DEEPENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25
KTS...HOWEVER SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR
30 KTS AT THE HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL CROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
710 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SUMMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS INLAND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR 90 ON BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALL OF THIS IS
DUE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH THAT BY SUNDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE... A STRONG CANADIAN
STORM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TRAILING A COLD FRONT
BEHIND IT. THAT FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AND
STALL THERE. THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. A STRONG...FALL LIKE STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND THAT WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD
MICHIGAN. THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THEN MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEMS STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
I HAVE ADDED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST AND DECREASED THE CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN US-131 AND US-31 EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING 2000 TO 25000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB... WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MID SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
MONDAY WILL BRING THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE.
A LARGE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD THAT MEANS A LOT OF WARM
AIR AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. THAT
ALSO MEANS A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THAT SORT
OF SET UP WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THERE IS JUST ONE LITTLE GLITCH TO WATCH TODAY. THE SAME SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT THE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING STALLS OVER OHIO/INDIANA TODAY. THAT PUTS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THAT SYSTEM OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA (NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-94). IN THIS AREA THERE WILL BE LESS SUBSIDENCE SO SOME
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS A
RESULT OF THIS CONSIDERATION.
THE FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN STORM SYSTEM REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY THEN STALLS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS INSTABILITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONT SO I HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
I USED THE 1000/925 MB THICKNESS TOOL TO COME UP WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO 90
INLAND BOTH DAYS... ONLY THE MID 80S MONDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEEK WITH AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WX AT THAT TIME.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SPOTTER ACTIVIATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL NOT COME UNTIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM
FOR VERY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOR THE MOST PART VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
THUNDERSTORMS AT GRR AND MKG THIS AFTERNOON SO I WILL PUT VCTS IN
THOSE TAF FORECASTS. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND NO CIGS BELOW 12000
FT AGL THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL SURELY BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT WAVES...THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE GREAT
BEACH WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
2 OR 3 INCHES IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS. AREAL FLOODING HAS BEEN
LIMITED AND RIVER GAUGES ARE REMAINING BELOW BANKFULL. FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
628 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF
VALENTINE AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE
POINT OF A DRYLINE BULGE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE. THE BEST GUESS ON CAPE WOULD BE 3500J/KG WHICH ISNT
MUCH RELATIVE TO THE 16C TEMPERATURE AT 700MB. STILL THE RAP AND
OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING DESTABLIZATION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NCNTL SANDHILLS FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER SOLNS AND STILL USES
THE LESS DEEPLY MIXED MODELS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THIS PRODUCES HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND
NCNTL NEB.
STORM CHANCES SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 22Z AND INITIALLY...THE
BUNKER RIGHT MOTION IS VERY WEAK SUGGESTING OUTFLOW DOMINANT
BEHAVIOR. WINDS ALOFT AT 300 MB INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND STORM MOTION SHOULD TAKE OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AND MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ALL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NAM MAINTAINS
2500J/KG OF 750MB COMPUTED CAPE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD WHICH
SUGGESTS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BEFORE THIS INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA
AROUND 06Z. THUS INITIALLY THE STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MORE
DOMINANT THREAT TONIGHT. SPC GIVES THE FCST AREA A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA TO
START THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SE DURING
THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY AS WE WARM
UP...ALTHOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN
THE 80S. MODELS WAVERING ON HOW FAR TO THE NW OF THE FRONT
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IN NW CWA. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE WILL HAVE FLATTEN DUE TO
NORTHERN TROUGH. MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES TO
BRING SOME ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION.
SOME CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SLOWING STORM MOTION TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AND PWATS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...AND LOCALLY PUSHING
CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
TUESDAY. MODELS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL GIVE THE FRONT
A PUSH SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS BECOMING
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 10C. AT THE SFC...MOS GUIDANCE HAS FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. TRENDED COOLER
WITH TEMPS...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP THAT COLD JUST YET. IT IS
STILL AUGUST AND WANT TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE COLD MODEL
DEPICTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER TO END THE WEEK. ALSO SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP 22Z-24Z THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
KVTN AND MOVE SOUTH TOWARD KLBF-KOGA AROUND 04Z-06Z. AS A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FCST AREA TONIGHT...OTHER SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FROM 06Z
ONWARD.
OTHERWISE...VFR IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON CDT /11 AM MDT/ TODAY TO 7 PM CDT /6 PM
MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ005>010-025-026-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1032 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY. SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SUNDAY. THE LATE
SUMMER HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY LATE THIS MORNING SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE GENESEE VALLEY WEAKENING AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD OUT OF OUR CWA.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO BREAK UP WITH THE EXIT OF THIS
FEATURE...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKE PLAINS WHERE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS
HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK/BROAD
TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT TODAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. MODEST DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AND FORCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WEAK
TROUGH PASSAGE WILL ALLOW STABLE LAKE SHADOWS TO SPREAD INLAND
ACROSS MOST OF THE LAKE PLAINS...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...SO
ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT CONCENTRATED LONG LASTING HEAVY RAIN IS NOT
EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING...AND
MUCAPE VALUES DIMINISHED OUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MID 60S. THIS COUPLED WITH ALL THE RECENT RAINS WILL LIKELY
BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND PASSING/THIN CIRRUS. ADDED JUST A
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A FEW CUMULUS
COULD BECOME MORE DEVELOPED PROVIDING A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +18C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO JUST A LITTLE COOLER...INCLUDING
METRO BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S
MAKING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER JUST A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AIDED BY THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND AND MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND TUG HILL REGION.
MUCH OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM...BUT THERE WILL AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL EJECT A LOBE OF VORTICITY...TIMED JUST RIGHT TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. BY MONDAY EVENING... THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A COPY OF SUNDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL... WHICH WILL
LIKELY HELP TO FUEL SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGHING ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT WILL MAINTAIN A WARM
AND HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. A SMALL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
OPEN UP AND BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING BACK
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY... AND A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GFS
BRINGS A GRAZING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AT THE WEEKEND WHEREAS ECMWF
SAGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITHOUT MUCH COOLING. THE WEEK
WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...MID TO
UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY...AND MUCH MILDER THAN CLIMATOLOGY AT NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EVEN LOW 70S ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH SOME EXCEPTIONS. SOME
PATCHY MVFR CIGS MAY LINGER UNTIL 18Z OR SO SOUTH OF THE LAKES.
ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON BUT THESE WILL BE MAINLY INLAND OF THE TAF
SITES WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR THESE TO IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS FOR
ANY SIGNIFICANT TIME PERIOD. ANY OF THE STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE
LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND STILL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH STABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN TWO
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS.
WAVES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MONDAY WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/WCH
AVIATION...APFFEL/HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...APFFEL/THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
732 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY. SUNNY AND HOT WEATHER WILL THEN PREVAIL ON SUNDAY. THE LATE
SUMMER HEAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
CROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RADAR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWING AN AREA OF WEAKENING RAIN FROM
WESTERN NY INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY AND WESTERN FINGER LAKES. THE
ONLY ACTIVE CONVECTION LEFT ON THIS LINE IS ACROSS THE WESTERN
SOUTHERN TIER. THE WELL DEFINED BAND OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WHICH
HELPED TO FOCUS THIS TRAINING LINE OF STORMS OVERNIGHT HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AND HAS ALSO MOVED SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE...WHICH
LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE IN PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FOR
THE FLASH FLOODS LAST NIGHT. EXPECT THIS LINGERING CONVECTION TO
WEAKEN TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS.
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD GIVE WAY TO A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ON THE LAKE PLAINS
WHERE STABLE LAKE SHADOWS WILL DEVELOP.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND OBJECTIVE RUC ANALYSIS SHOWING A WEAK/BROAD
TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK LARGE SCALE ASCENT TODAY AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION WILL FADE AWAY BY
LATE MORNING. MODEST DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR WEAK INSTABILITY
TO DEVELOP AND FORCE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE WEAK TROUGH PASSAGE
WILL ALLOW STABLE LAKE SHADOWS TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS MOST OF THE
LAKE PLAINS...WITH THE GREATER CHANCES FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION
FOCUSING ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER
LAKES. THE AIRMASS IS QUITE MOIST...SO ANY STORM THAT DOES DEVELOP
MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT CONCENTRATED LONG LASTING
HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED.
BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THIS EVENING...AND
MUCAPE VALUES DIMINISHED OUR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FADE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH CLEARING SKIES. DEWPOINTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ON THE MUGGY SIDE WITH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES STILL IN
THE MID 60S. THIS COUPLED WITH ALL THE RECENT RAINS WILL LIKELY
BRING AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S. TONIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE LOW TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER RETURNS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING ASSOCIATED WITH
THE RIDGING WILL PROMOTE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH SOME DIURNAL
CUMULUS INLAND FROM THE LAKES AND PASSING/THIN CIRRUS. ADDED JUST A
VERY LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE A FEW CUMULUS
COULD BECOME MORE DEVELOPED PROVIDING A VERY ISOLATED SPRINKLE OR
LIGHT SHOWER. 850MB TEMPS RISE TO AROUND +18C BY THE END OF THE DAY.
THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS LOWER
ELEVATIONS INLAND FROM THE LAKES. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP AREAS
NORTHEAST OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO JUST A LITTLE COOLER...INCLUDING
METRO BUFFALO AND WATERTOWN. DEW POINTS WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID 60S
MAKING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER JUST A LITTLE MORE UNCOMFORTABLE WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID ATLANTIC. SOUTHWEST
FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL SUPPORT A WARM AND MUGGY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S ON THE LAKE PLAINS AIDED BY THE
LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WIND AND MID 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR SOUTHERN TIER
AND TUG HILL REGION.
MUCH OF MONDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARM...BUT THERE WILL AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY WILL EJECT A LOBE OF VORTICITY...TIMED JUST RIGHT TO BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND FROM THE LAKE BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. BY MONDAY EVENING... THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE MUCH OF THE AREA. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL BE A COPY OF SUNDAY...WITH MID TO UPPER
80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...SO CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN RATHER MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WELL... WHICH WILL
LIKELY HELP TO FUEL SOME NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC TO SOUTHEAST COAST AND LOW
PRESSURE TROFFING ACROSS THE MID CONTINENT WILL MAINTAIN A WARM AND
HUMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
A SMALL CUTOFF LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL OPEN UP AND
BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. THIS WILL BRING BACK UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WITH CHANCES OF PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...
AND A BETTER CHANCE OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE REGION. GFS BRINGS A GRAZING SHOT OF COOLER AIR AT
THE WEEKEND WHEREAS ECMWF SAGS THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION WITHOUT
MUCH COOLING. THE WEEK WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S...MID TO UPPER 80S ON WEDNESDAY...AND MUCH MILDER THAN
CLIMATOLOGY AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...EVEN LOW
70S ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NY AND THE WESTERN FINGER LAKES
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING AND BECOMING SCATTERED IN
NATURE. ADDITIONAL MORE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE
LAKESHORES WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND CONVERGENCE FROM DEVELOPING LAKE
BREEZE BOUNDARIES. VFR WILL PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH ANY OF THE STORMS
TODAY WILL PRODUCE LOCAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
ANY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING WITH CLEARING
SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES AND STILL ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
VSBY AFTER 06Z.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...COMBINED WITH STABLE LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL YIELD RELATIVELY FLAT WAVE ACTION ON THE EASTERN TWO
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON WINDS WILL INCREASE
TOWARDS 10 TO 12 KNOTS ON THE LAKES AND RIVERS.
WAVES AND WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME MONDAY WITH THE NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM...THOUGH CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
NEAR TERM...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
SHORT TERM...CHURCH
LONG TERM...CHURCH/WCH
AVIATION...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS
MARINE...THOMAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
925 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE MAINLY FAIR
WEATHER...ALONG WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTRAST IN THE AIR MASS BETWEEN
KMHX AND KGSO. THE KMHX SOUNDING IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AND CAPPED...
WHEREAS THE KGSO SOUNDING...WHILE CAPPED...IS MORE MOIST AND WITH A
CAP THAT IS WEAKER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT KMHX IS 0.81...
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMPARED WITH NEARLY 1.25
INCHES AT KGSO. MANY CONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...
INCLUDING RIDGING ALOFT...A GENERAL DRY AIR MASS IN THE MEAN...AND
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA K INDICES THAT ARE IN THE TEENS
AT BEST WITH MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
K INDICES ARE HIGHEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...AND IT IS THERE
WHERE THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP THAT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THREE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS IN AN
AREA WEST OF ABOUT A LINE FROM KGSO TO KRCZ. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN DECENT 850MB UVV THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT LOW-LEVELS SEEM TOO DRY
AND STABLE TO RETURN THE MENTION TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
87 TO 92 WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 10 MPH...AND ONLY A COUPLE OF
BRIEF GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT EXPECTED TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH OUR AREA
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE MAJOR WEATHER PLAYERS...NAMELY THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE NE COAST...
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AIRMASS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWAT STILL
HOLDING AT AROUND AN INCH). SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST
GOING...ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE MAY BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT BY HIGH CLOUDS.
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...SO HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HOLDS TIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BY MID-LATE WEEK IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS AN UPPER TROF MIGRATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. HEIGHTS BUILD MODESTLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH HIGHS
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS MONDAY BOOSTED TO MAINLY
LOWER 90S WITH POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S BY LATE WEEK. SIMILARLY...
INITIAL LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE SKEWED TO DIURNAL
WITH VERY WEAK FORCING OR SHEAR.. POPS WILL BE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY IN A MORE
FAVORABLE DYNAMIC REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 640 AM SATURDAY...
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY: VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 16/06Z...WITH SHALLOW TO MODERATE CU THIS AFTERNOON AT OR
ABOVE 5K FT AGL. AFT 16/06Z...PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR FLT CONDITIONS IS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN REGION AND I-95
CORRIDOR...AND AT KFAY/KRWI.
AFT 12Z SUN...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY TO
OUR WEST GRADUALLY DRIFTS EAST TOWARD OUR AREA...AND DEEP MOISTURE
AHEAD OF IT ADVECTS INTO THE CAROLINAS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RAH
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...RAH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A DECAYING MCS IS SAGGING VERY SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR FA EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT THE PCPN INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE TO CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS IT
PUSHES INTO A MORE STABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR
FA.
ASSUMING THE CLOUDS FROM THE MCS DISSIPATE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS...WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE NAM MAY BE OVERDONE WITH ITS
INSTABILITY BUT EVEN THE GFS AND RAP ARE INDICATING ML CAPES
PUSHING INTO THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ABOUT
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FA...DECREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ALONG WITH A SHEARED
OUT VORT AXIS IS FORECAST TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THIS AND SOME POSSIBLE
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM THE CURRENT DECAYING MCS...MAY BE ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VERY LIGHT WIND
FLOW ALL THE WAY UP TO 300 MB THIS AFTERNOON SO WOULD EXPECT
STORMS TO BE FAIRLY PULSY AND SLOW MOVING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO WORK BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORCING WILL BE WEAK...BUT AS WE DESTABILIZE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...IT WILL BE TOUGH TO RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WILL LIMIT POPS
TO JUST 20-30 PERCENT WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN THE DIURNALLY
FAVORABLE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS PRIMARILY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FA TUESDAY EVENING.
A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING AND MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCIES WITH THE MODELS WITH THIS SYSTEM
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCREASE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE UPPER CHANCE CATEGORY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S THROUGH THE LONG TERM
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING HAVE COME TO
AN END ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY SOME LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN
REMAINING IN PLACES. THERE IS ALSO SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG AT SOME
OF THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHICH SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING AS THE SUN COMES UP. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF
ISSUANCE REMAINS WHETHER OR NOT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON OR NOT. WHERE MODELS FIRE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
IS ALONG THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION. THE
BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF INTERSTATE 71 AND IS SLIGHTLY
WEAKER THAN WHAT HIGH RES IS CURRENTLY SHOWING. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDER CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE AT KILN/ KCMH/ AND KLCK.
AS THE SUNSETS EXPECT COVERAGE TO QUICKLY DECREASE WITH WINDS
GOING CALM. CALM WINDS AND A LOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE SPREAD WILL
AGAIN BRING THE CHANCE OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES BACK TO THE
TERMINALS. MOSTLY MVFR CIGS SHOULD BE EXPECTED SUNDAY MORNING WITH
IFR AT KLUK.
OUTLOOK...MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...JGL
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...NOVAK
AVIATION...HAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
730 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE RIDGE
WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING AND WEAK COLD FRONT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS
SETTLED DOWN OVER LAKE ONTARIO UNDER AN ELONGATED MID LEVEL TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS DOWN INTO INDIANA. THIS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY SEEMS TO
BE HELPING FOCUS A SMALL BUT SIGNIFICANT MCS IN THE VICINITY OF
BUFFALO WHERE RADAR IS ESTIMATING 5+ INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE
RADAR LOOKS NOT UNLIKE A GOOD LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT GIVEN HOW THE
STORMS SEEM ANCHORED TO THE LAKE SHORE AND KEEP TRAINING OVER THE
SAME AREA.
THE FUTURE OF THIS BOUNDARY/UPPER SHEAR ZONE COULD PLAY A ROLE IN
THE WEATHER FOR OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES AS THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS HINT THAT THEY WILL SLIDE INTO SOUTHERN NY/NRN PA LATER
TODAY OR OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS...WHICH HAVE NOT HANDLED THE
SYSTEM WELL...ALSO SHOW IT WEAKENING AS THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE
YIELDS TO THE RIDGE THAT IS MADE TO BUILD IN STRONGLY FROM THE MID
WEST AND GR LAKES.
FOR TODAY THE MAIN THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MAINLY NORTH OF I80 ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHEAR ZONE AND WEAK
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY. 00Z OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL DEVELOP A
RESPECTABLE AMOUNT OF CAPE BY AFTERNOON. THE GEFS SHOWS THE BEST
CAPE FAVORING NWRN PA WHILE THE SREF IS MORE UNSTABLE OVER A
BROADER AREA OF NRN AND NWRN PA. BY 18Z/2PM LOCAL THE HRRR SHOWS A
DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION FROM SRN NY BACK INTO NW PA. NO
REASON TO THINK THIS WILL NOT DEVELOP FURTHER AND CONTINUE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE NRN MOUNTAINS.
I DROPPED POPS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT USING THE BUILDING RIDGE
AS A BELIEVABLE REASON TO PUT A LID ON WHATEVER CONVECTION MANAGES
TO FORM LATER TODAY.
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. DEWPOINTS WHICH HAVE BEEN KEPT AT BAY WILL BEGIN TO CREEP
SLOWLY UPWARD UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE. DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
BE OPPRESSIVELY HUMID...BUT NOT QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS IT HAS
BEEN ON RECENT DAYS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY
WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
WHICH I CHOSE TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE 80S
EVERYWHERE...WILL APPROACH 90 OVER SERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN US WILL FAVOR A MEAN RIDGE AND WHAT
LOOKS LIKE SEVERAL DAYS OF SUMMER WARMTH AND HUMIDITY.
THINGS GET A LITTLE MESSY LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WHAT`S LEFT
OF A SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GR LAKES
AND EVENTUALLY THE NERN US. OPERATIONAL GFS/ECMWF NOW PRETTY MUCH
WASH THE FRONT...BUT USE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH TO INCREASE
MOISTURE AND TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
TUESDAY LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE THE BEST DAY FOR RAIN CHANCES.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A DYING
COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.
DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ADJUSTED THE 12Z TAF PACKAGE FOR A FEW SPOTS THAT HAVE SOME
FOG.
ALSO ADDED IN SOME FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT AGAIN.
EARLIER DISCUSSION BELOW.
CONVECTION OFF LAKE ERIE A LITTLE WEAKER NOW...ACTING A LOT
LIKE THE EVENT WE HAD BACK LAST NOVEMBER...WHEN WE HAD RECORD
COLD AIR EARLY IN THE SEASON AND SNOW SQUAALS.
A WEAK WIND SHIFT LINE TO THE NORTH HAS RESULTED IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THE FLOW OF AIR OFF THE LAKES HAS RESULTED IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
FOR THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE...HAVE VCSH IN BFD LATE TODAY...BEHIND
WIND SHIFT LINE. LEFT MENTION OF SHOWERS OUT OF OTHER SITES FOR
NOW. PATTERN IS RATHER COMPLEX. SOME MODELS WANT TO BUILD AN
OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS NY AND PA.
OUTLOOK...
SUN...PATCHY AM FOG POSS N MTNS.
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.
TUE-WED...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE
SHORT TERM...LA CORTE
LONG TERM...LA CORTE
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1058 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.UPDATE...
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN WHERE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE TN RIVER DRIFTING SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS SHOULD
FORCE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE BUOYANT AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD
POOL DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS WHERE CURRENT CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IS LIMITING
WARMING.
TVT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
A QUIET MID-AUGUST MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
ONE LONE SHOWER EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE HAS HEAVY ENOUGH RETURNS
TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND AS IT APPROACHES
KGWX AND MONROE COUNTY. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM...
THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH REMAINING DRY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER TODAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH EAST. THE HRRR KEEPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEST OF THE
MS RIVER. THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND LOWER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LONG TERM...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWS NEAR 70 AND CHANCES OF STORMS EACH EVENING.THE BEST
CHANCES OF AREA WIDE PRECIP DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MATRICULATES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
WITH IT COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
JPM3
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
659 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.UPDATE...FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
SEVERAL ADMS POSSIBLE THRU 16/12Z IF SHWR/TSTMS DIRECTLY IMPACT TAF SITES.
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THRU 16/12Z. TRICKY TO PINPOINT EXACT
CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES THRU 16/12Z...ESPECIALLY AROUND CSV...PER AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RICH UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO ORGANIZED
SFC FEATURES OF NOTE AND DIURNAL INFLUENCES PLAYING PRIMARY ROLE...ALONG/OR
WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES PASSAGES AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION ALOFT
IN SCT SHWR/TSTM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH COULD OCCUR ANYTIME THRU 16/12Z. ACTUAL
SIMPLIFICATION IN TAF FORECASTS SEEMS APPROPRIATE APPROACHING 15/12Z WITH
VCTS REMARKS AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15/17Z-16/12Z AS THE ADVECTION OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES WWD...WITH GENERALLY WITH SCT/BKN CB...SCT/BKN AC AND
BKN CI CLOUD COVER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. SOME MVFR FOG POSSIBLE CKV/CSV ALSO
GENERALLY AFTER 16/06Z PER USUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING POTENTIAL WITH
INCREASED MOISTURE EVENTS. SFC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT GENERALLY LIGHT SELY
WINDS THRU 16/12Z ALSO.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW INCHED UPWARD AND ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE ARE GETTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT. GFS
ELUDES TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS TOWARD 12Z. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF LIGHT ISOL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND THIS
AREA NORTHWARD WITH FAIRLY DESCENT COVERAGE. IT APPEARS...SO
FAR...THAT THIS IS OVERDONE HOWEVER. SO FOR THE FCST TODAY...WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS EVERYWHERE.
THEN...I WILL INCREASE THAT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
ELEVATION IN MOISTURE LEVELS. NOT SEEING ANY APPARENT OVERNIGHT
DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK. WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE GENERALLY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...EXCEPT
FOR 30 PERCENT PLATEAU ON SUN AFT.
BY MONDAY...MRH LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT AS THE UPPER TROUGH ERODES AND
WESTERLIES ATTEMPT TO RETURN. WILL STILL CARRY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS CONVECTIVE ENERGY REMAINS.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY GO ABOVE THE MAV NUMBERS BY A DEGREE OR SO
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM(TUE-FRI)...
CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE OF A SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN THRU MID WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN
MOVING IN FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID STATE
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BASICALLY
KEEP THE MID STATE UNDER A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THRU THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY
OR NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A SLY/SWLY SFC MOISTURE FETCH PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO PER MID ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...NO SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES OF NOTE
ANTICIPATED. THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN FLOW ALOFT...INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL ATM MOISTURE POTENTIAL...
ALONG WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AFFECTS...SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THRU NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH PTCLDY SKIES. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HIGH AND LOW TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES ALSO THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 67 89 69 / 30 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 81 63 83 66 / 40 20 30 20
COLUMBIA 86 65 90 66 / 30 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 87 66 89 67 / 30 20 20 20
WAVERLY 87 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
650 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODEL DATA
SHOWS A WEAK CUTOFF LOW ALONG THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND THIS
FEATURE SHOULD HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. FURTHERMORE...THE
CURRENT AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL MOVE LITTLE AS WELL. HRRR
SHOWS A DEFINITIVE INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
WILL ALSO OPT TO CUT TEMPS BY A COUPLE DEGREES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM(TODAY-MON)...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE LOCATED DIRECTLY ACROSS THE
MID STATE TODAY. DEWPOINTS HAVE NOW INCHED UPWARD AND ARE GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THUS...MOISTURE LEVELS ARE ON THE INCREASE
AS WE ARE GETTING MORE OF A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT. GFS
ELUDES TO AN INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELDS TOWARD 12Z. WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING AN AREA OF LIGHT ISOL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE. HRRR ATTEMPTS TO EXPAND THIS
AREA NORTHWARD WITH FAIRLY DESCENT COVERAGE. IT APPEARS...SO
FAR...THAT THIS IS OVERDONE HOWEVER. SO FOR THE FCST TODAY...WILL
INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MORNING SHOWERS AND TSTMS EVERYWHERE.
THEN...I WILL INCREASE THAT INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
AFTERNOON FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT
ELEVATION IN MOISTURE LEVELS. NOT SEEING ANY APPARENT OVERNIGHT
DIVERGENCE AND LOW LEVEL DYNAMICS REMAIN WEAK. WILL THEREFORE
INCLUDE GENERALLY JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS...EXCEPT
FOR 30 PERCENT PLATEAU ON SUN AFT.
BY MONDAY...MRH LEVELS BACK OFF A BIT AS THE UPPER TROUGH ERODES AND
WESTERLIES ATTEMPT TO RETURN. WILL STILL CARRY A 20 TO 30 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AS CONVECTIVE ENERGY REMAINS.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...VALUES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE NEAR
SEASONAL LEVELS. MAY GO ABOVE THE MAV NUMBERS BY A DEGREE OR SO
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LONG TERM(TUE-FRI)...
CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOWING MORE OF A SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN THRU MID WEEK...WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING PATTERN
MOVING IN FROM THE CNTRL MS RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE MID STATE
AREA DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL BASICALLY
KEEP THE MID STATE UNDER A SWLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT THRU THE ENTIRE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...SUPPORTING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DAY
OR NIGHT. AT THE SFC...A SLY/SWLY SFC MOISTURE FETCH PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD ALSO PER MID ATLANTIC SFC HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...NO SFC FRONTAL PASSAGES OF NOTE
ANTICIPATED. THESE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IN FLOW ALOFT...INTERACTING
WITH DIURNAL BASED INSTABILITY...LOW LEVEL ATM MOISTURE POTENTIAL...
ALONG WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHIC LIFTING AFFECTS...SHOULD SUPPORT MAINLY
SCT SHWRS/TSTMS THRU NEXT WORK WEEK ALONG WITH PTCLDY SKIES. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL SUPPORT HIGH AND LOW TEMPS AROUND SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES ALSO THRU THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WORK WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 86 67 89 69 / 30 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 87 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 81 63 83 66 / 50 20 30 20
COLUMBIA 86 65 90 66 / 30 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 87 66 89 67 / 30 20 20 20
WAVERLY 87 66 88 66 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
A QUIET MID-AUGUST MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
ONE LONE SHOWER EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE HAS HEAVY ENOUGH RETURNS
TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND AS IT APPROACHES
KGWX AND MONROE COUNTY. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM...
THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH REMAINING DRY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER TODAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH EAST. THE HRRR KEEPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEST OF THE
MS RIVER. THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND LOWER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LONG TERM...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWS NEAR 70 AND CHANCES OF STORMS EACH EVENING.THE BEST
CHANCES OF AREA WIDE PRECIP DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MATRICULATES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
WITH IT COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ARS
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
827 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
FARTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING...WHILE ADDING CHANCE POPS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RE-TRENDED
ALL OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM TRAVIS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH COMAL AND BEXAR COUNTY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS BUT A BRIEF WIND GUST IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY SITS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING US WITH THE
HOT AND DRY TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. A TROUGH IS
TAKING SHAPE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. BASED ON MORNING RAP
MODEL ANALYSIS THERE ARE SUBTLE SIGNS THAT A SHORT WAVE AT THE
TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SITUATED OVER EAST TEXAS IS WHAT IS
KICKING OFF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ALSO PICK UP IN THIS FEATURE IN THEIR MODEL REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS AS THEY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST WEST
OF I-35 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING THE FOCUS
TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
PRE-PACKAGE UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE 12Z MODELS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY CREATE MVFR CIGS ACROSS KAUS FOR FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NEAR NEWLY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
15/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE/LL ALSO INCLUDE A
CHANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-35...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
FAR WEST THIS TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING ONE
OF THE FARTHEST WEST. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. BY MID-WEEK...A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AND FOR NOW...WE/LL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE FARTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 76 98 75 95 / 20 10 10 20 20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 98 72 97 72 95 / 20 10 10 20 20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 97 73 95 / 30 10 20 20 20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 96 73 94 / 30 10 10 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 99 77 100 76 98 / 20 10 - - 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 74 95 / 20 10 10 20 20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 97 73 97 72 95 / 30 10 10 10 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 74 97 74 94 / 20 10 10 20 20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 99 75 96 74 95 / 20 10 20 20 30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 76 97 75 95 / 30 10 20 20 20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 98 74 95 / 30 10 20 20 20
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...30
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
137 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH THEN DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
FIRST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES INVOF THE
NYC/NJ METRO AND ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND AS 12 PM TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY AT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS. LATEST FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR A HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND...90
TO 91 IN NYC...AND 92-93 IN NJ METRO.
THE NEXT CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER SKY COVERAGE. LATEST
HRRR...STONY BROOK WRF...AND RAP CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION DRY
TODAY AS ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST
STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR AMBIENT TEMPERATURES INVOF NYC/NJ
METRO AS DEW POINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60S DEGREES.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES MAY HELP TO PUSH DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE AS HIGH WITH
MARINE INFLUENCE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR ISO SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN TONIGHT WITH
OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHT CONTINUE TO RISE.
HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE AS
SEAS BREEZES DEVELOPING. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS AND AND TROUGHS REMAIN TO THE WEST. WILL
HAVE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS PASS BY THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ON A MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
SUNDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT DICTATES ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE N AROUND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCE
SHRA/TSTMS THEN WITH AN EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING CWA
WIDE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - MAINLY FROM
THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
THE AIR TEMPERATURE...SO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE...NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE 90S IN
URBAN AREAS.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW FORECASTING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO
GENERALLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTS...WHICH IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FORECAST AIR
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU THE
WEEKEND.
SW-S FLOW TODAY...GENERALLY AOB 10KT. STRONGER FLOW AT KJFK WITH
SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT. SEA BREEZE PROBABLY REACHES KLGA LATE
AFTN AND PROBABLY REMAINS EAST OF KEWR AND KTEB FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.
VFR. SLIGHT CHC SHRA/TSTM WITH BRIEF MVFR AT KSWF LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVE.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUN THROUGH THU...
.SUN PM...VFR WITH SW-S WINDS.
.MON...VFR. SW-S WINDS.
.TUE...VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT-ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS. S WINDS.
.WED...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. S WINDS.
.THU...CHC SHRA/TSTMS WITH MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. S WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN OVER THE
WRN OCEAN AND INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS MON-WED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES
OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS/MET
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MET
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1230 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY. A WEAK TROUGH DISSIPATES OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH SUNDAY AND MERGES WITH BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE BERMUDA HIGH THEN DOMINATES OUR
WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HAVE MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.
FIRST CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES INVOF THE
NYC/NJ METRO AND ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND AS 12 PM TEMPERATURES
WERE ALREADY AT PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGHS. LATEST FORECAST NOW
CALLS FOR A HIGH IN THE UPPER 80S ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND...90
TO 91 IN NYC...AND 92-93 IN NJ METRO.
THE NEXT CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY POPS ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND LOWER SKY COVERAGE. LATEST
HRRR...STONY BROOK WRF...AND RAP CONTINUE TO KEEP THE REGION DRY
TODAY AS ANY SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST
STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY.
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE NEAR AMBIENT TEMPERATURES INVOF NYC/NJ
METRO AS DEW POINTS MIX DOWN INTO THE 50S TO NEAR 60S DEGREES.
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES MAY HELP TO PUSH DEW POINTS A BIT HIGHER
INTO THE MIDDLE 60S...BUT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT RISE AS HIGH WITH
MARINE INFLUENCE THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONTINUE FOR ISO SHOWER/STORM...MAINLY ACROSS
INTERIOR ZONES. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER DOWN TONIGHT WITH
OVERALL PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED.
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THIS EVENING
WITH RIDGING BUILDING IN THROUGH SUNDAY AS HEIGHT CONTINUE TO RISE.
HAVE REMOVED THE CHANCE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES AND LOW LEVEL DRYING OCCURS WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. INLAND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS COOLER WITH A MARINE INFLUENCE AS
SEAS BREEZES DEVELOPING. USED A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
FOR LOWS AND HIGHS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE REGION REMAINS IN BETWEEN A WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE SUB
TROPICAL RIDGE AND MEAN TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE REMAINS AND AND TROUGHS REMAIN TO THE WEST. WILL
HAVE VARIOUS WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS PASS BY THROUGH THE
AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ON A MEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
SUNDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT DICTATES ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.
WHILE THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH BETWEEN THE VARIOUS
MODELS THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
WILL PASS MAINLY TO THE N AROUND FRIDAY. AS A RESULT HAVE CHANCE
SHRA/TSTMS THEN WITH AN EXPECTATION OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING CWA
WIDE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...
FOR HIGHS SUNDAY A BLEND OF MAV/MET/ECS GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER
TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 900-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
WAS USED. HIGHS SHOULD BE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - MAINLY FROM
THE UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S...WITH SOME MID 90S POSSIBLE IN URBAN NE NJ.
FOR NOW IT APPEARS AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE NEAR OR JUST BELOW
THE AIR TEMPERATURE...SO BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A BLEND OF MET AND MAV GUIDANCE WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES WAS
USED FOR LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/ECM GUIDANCE...NAM 2-
METER TEMPERATURES AND A MIX DOWN FROM 975-825 HPA PER BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS WAS USED FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL - GENERALLY A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER
THAN ON SUNDAY. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES COULD REACH THE MIDDLE 90S IN
URBAN AREAS.
FROM MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY A BLEND OF MEX/MEN/ECE/ECM/WPC GUIDANCE WAS
USED FOR TEMPERATURES...WITH CONTINUED VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW FORECASTING AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES TO
GENERALLY PEAK OUT IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COASTS...WHICH IS NEAR OR JUST BELOW THE FORECAST AIR
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BROAD AREA OF HI PRES WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THRU THE
WEEKEND.
SW FLOW TODAY...GENERALLY AOB 10KT. STRONGER FLOW THIS AFTN KJFK
WITH SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT AND WINDS BACKED TO THE S.
MAINLY VFR THRU THE TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE A FEW AFTN/EVE
SHWRS AND TSTMS...BUT COVERAGE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
MOST PROBABLE AREAS FOR THIS ACTIVITY N AND W OF THE CITY
TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SUN THROUGH WED...
.SUN...VFR WITH SW FLOW.
.MON...VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT-ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS. SW WINDS.
.TUE...VFR OUTSIDE OF SCT-ISOLD AFTN/EVE TSTMS. S FLOW.
.WED...AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE. S FLOW.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS FORECAST ON TRACK...NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
SW FLOW THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BACK TO THE S THIS AFTN OVER THE
WRN OCEAN AND INVOF THE HARBOR ENTRANCE DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. OCNL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THIS
AREA. OTHERWISE...WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS THIS WEEKEND.
WINDS AND SEAS BLW SCA LVLS MON-WED WITH A LARGE AREA OF HI PRES
OVER THE ERN SEABOARD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/MET
NEAR TERM...DS/MET
SHORT TERM...DS/MET
LONG TERM...MALOIT/MET
AVIATION...JMC/JC
MARINE...JMC
HYDROLOGY...MET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
342 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY IN
TERMS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMIDITY AFTER A TUESDAY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...A PERIOD OF STORMS APPEARS
LIKELY FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
EJECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
BEGINNING WITH SUNDAY NIGHT...WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. STORMS INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE CRAWLING EAST THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SLOW STORM
MOTIONS...AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.80 INCHES INDICATE A FLASH FLOOD
THREAT...ESPECIALLY FOR STORMS THAT TRAIN. SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE
THE PRIMARY SEVERE PARAMETERS BUT FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO MONITOR.
ON MONDAY...ANOTHER LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL LONGWAVE TROUGH EJECTS TO CONTINUE THE STORMY PATTERN.
INSTABILITY BUILDS UP ONCE AGAIN BUT WIND SHEAR IS MORE SUBSTANTIAL
MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE STRATUS AND FOG MONDAY MORNING WITH A
STALLED FRONT IN THE REGION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO A MORE STABLE
ATMOSPHERE DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF SUNLIGHT RECEIVED. A LITTLE UNSURE
ON HOW SUBSTANTIAL A SEVERE THREAT WOULD DEVELOP BECAUSE OF
FOG/STRATUS AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY AND AGREE WITH
THEIR ASSESSMENT. AS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL...PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE LOWER THAN SUNDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...SLOW STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST SOME HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT.
DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION RECEIVED SUNDAY EVENING...FLASH FLOODING
MAY BECOME MORE LIKELY IF SOILS ARE SATURATED.
TUESDAY...THE PRIMARY DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH...FORCING THE
FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE REGION. THE QUESTION OF TIMING REMAINS
BUT A LATER EJECTION...AS SHOWN WITH LATEST EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
GUIDANCE...WOULD FAVOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ONCE
AGAIN. BEHIND THIS FRONT...ANTICIPATE NOTICEABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWERED RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
REGARDING EARLIER TAF UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ALONG
KS/CO BORDER SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF KMCK. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS. MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AS GOOD
MOISTURE LINGERS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS BL WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. SW FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS IN
PLACE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
GREAT BASIN ACROSS WYOMING AND INTO WESTERN EXTENT OF NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...SHORT RANGE/HI RES GUIDANCE INDICATES
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATING ALONG SURFACE TROUGH AND ACROSS
CHEYENNE RIDGE AND SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD AS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES. MOST
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING BETTER COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
CWA THAT CORRELATES WITH BETTER FORCING. DEEP MOIST AIR MASS IN
PLACE...SLOWER STORM MOTIONS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS. CAPE VALUES
1500-3000 J/KG COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER UPDRAFTS DESPITE MINIMAL
SHEER...WITH LARGE HAIL/ISOLATED DOWN DRAFTS MAIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREATS.
SUNDAY...UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHIFTS EAST WITH
FALLING HEIGHTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT WILL BE AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH FASTER GUIDANCE
SHOWING FROPA BY MIDDAY. INCREASING FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. MODERATE
CAPE...INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEER WILL COINCIDE IN BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 AM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING IS THE ONLY DAY TO HAVE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OR STORMS. THERE IS A VERY
SUBSTANTIAL TROUGH MOVING INTO MONTANA AND WYOMING...AS WELL AS
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AT 12Z. THE GFS AND EUROPEAN ARE
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALONG WITH THIS TROUGH THERE IS A VERY
STRONG SHORTWAVE AT 700MB. SURFACE CAPES ARE UP TO 1500 J/KG...THE
BULK SHEAR IS NOT IMPRESSIVE. AT 18Z TUESDAY THE BULK SHEAR OVER
THE CWA IS REACHING TO 60 PLUS KTS AND CAPES ARE REACHING UP INTO
THE 2000 J/KG RANGE. CHANCES FOR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH 12Z
AND 18Z. STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT 00Z WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER
CAPES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT THERE IS STRONG BULK SHEAR AROUND 60
KTS. AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY STORMS WILL START TO MOVE EAST OUT OF OUR
REGION.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM THE CWA WILL BE DRIER WITH LOW TO
NO CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION. BY FRIDAY THERE WILL BE A ZONAL FLOW
OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE US. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...THERE WILL
BE A DECREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND LOW TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS. THIS IS DUE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE HIGH 70S ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER THIS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN
INTO THE MID TO HIGH 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM MDT SAT AUG 15 2015
REGARDING EARLIER TAF UPDATE...MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS ACTIVITY PRIMARILY ALONG
KS/CO BORDER SO I LEFT MENTION OUT OF KMCK. THERE COULD STILL BE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH TAFS SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH BY SUNDAY...SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS. MVFR VIS MAY DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY AS GOOD
MOISTURE LINGERS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE AS BL WINDS MAY BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO MIX OUT OF THE LOW LEVELS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
527 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK...SLOWLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MINIMAL DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE...HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT TO
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND SLOW MOVING NATURE TO THE PRECIP MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO FORM
AS WELL...THEREFORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE REGIONS FOR UP TO A FEW MORE HOURS.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL CELLS BECOMING
EMBEDDED IN A LARGER SCALE MASS OF RAIN TOWARDS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HHH...HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS H8
TEMPERATURES REACH +16C. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. DEW POINT VALUES
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY
HIGH.
EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THEIR DEW POINTS SO READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN EAST COAST RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMER ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CAP ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN A FEW
DEGREES MORE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WE WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK WHICH COULD SIGNAL A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALSO...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LEAD TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
LONG TERM...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SOME FOG AND HAZE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID AIR CROSSES THE REGION.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON/LULOFS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
242 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING ACCOMPANIED
BY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ALONG THE EAST COAST SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID AIR TO THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
NORTH OF OUR REGION AND INTO CANADA LATER IN THE WEEK...SLOWLY
DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MINIMAL DYNAMICS WITH TROUGH CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE...HIGH CAPE ENVIRONMENT TO
PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
CONTAIN GUSTY WINDS...AND SLOW MOVING NATURE TO THE PRECIP MAY
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. BOUNDARY`S CONTINUE TO FORM AS
WELL...THEREFORE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL FORM ACROSS THESE
REGIONS.
THE LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW INDIVIDUAL CELLS BECOMING
EMBEDDED IN A LARGER SCALE MASS OF RAIN TOWARDS THIS EVENING. THE
PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXITS THE REGION AND DIURNAL HEATING CEASES.
EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THIS WILL MAINLY BE OVER THE INLAND
VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HHH...HAZY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS H8
TEMPERATURES REACH +16C. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE AT THAT TIME...WITH THE MEAN FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS...TO THE
LOWER 90S OVER SOUTHERN MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. DEW POINT VALUES
WILL BE IN THE MID 60S...SO HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD NOT BE OVERLY
HIGH.
EXPECT MORE PATCHY FOG SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO
THEIR DEW POINTS SO READINGS WILL DROP INTO THE MID 60S BY
SUNRISE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. AN EAST COAST RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL RESULT
IN ONE OF THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE SUMER ON MONDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 90S
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A CAP ALOFT
SHOULD PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW DEGREES TUESDAY AND THEN A FEW
DEGREES MORE ON WEDNESDAY. AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN WE WILL SEE
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE WEEK WHICH COULD SIGNAL A MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION EVENT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY STORMS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALSO...PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG WILL LEAD TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE INLAND VALLEYS.
LONG TERM...VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE NEAR AND SHORT RANGE PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. SOME FOG AND HAZE MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS AS
INCREASINGLY WARM...HUMID AIR CROSSES THE REGION.
LONG TERM...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS DURING THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOCALIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CANNON/LULOFS
NEAR TERM...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LULOFS
AVIATION...CANNON
MARINE...CANNON/LULOFS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
116 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A RIDGE FROM THE SW CONUS INTO
THE UPPER MS VALLEY RESULTING IN NRLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THROUGH
THE WRN GREAT LAKES. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE EXTENDED FROM QUEBEC
THROUGH THE NRN LAKES INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS UPPER MI...FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING HAS
ALLOWED PATCHY SHALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
TODAY...WITH THE RIDGE AND STRONG CAPPING OVER THE AREA...DRY
WEATHER IS EXPECTED. MIXING TO NEAR 850 MB TEMPS THAT CLIMB TO
AROUND 20C SUPPORTS TEMPS NEAR 90 OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA.
LIGHT SRLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSER TO 80 NEAR LAKE MI. OVER THE
NORTH...LAKE BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL BRING LIMITED RELIEF
WITH TEMPS STILL INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
TONIGHT...WARM AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS INCREASING
SW WINDS DRAW MORE MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS AND ASSOCIATED MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT LOWER 70S FOR DOWNSLOPING AREAS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SUNDAY...ONE LAST WARM AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE BEFORE SEASONABLY
COOL CONDITIONS TAKE OVER FOR THE WORK WEEK. 850 HPA TEMPS NEARING
20C COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL RESULT IN
TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S ACROSS THE CWA. DECENT SW
GRADIENT FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE
OFFSHORE...RESULTING IN SW DOWNSLOPE LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. AN APPROACHING SFC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC LOW
TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN CWA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BUT CAPPING BETWEEN 750 AND 850 HPA ALONG WITH MINIMAL
FORCING SHOULD EITHER INHIBIT PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...OR DESTROY ANY
APPROACHING PRECIP.
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE
NEARING OR ENTERING WESTERN UPPER MI AT 00Z MONDAY. AS SUNDAY NIGHT
PROGRESSES...AN ACTIVE RIGHT ENTRANCE TO A 120KT UPPER JET WILL
ALIGN WITH A QUICK-MOVING SHORTWAVE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO
PRODUCE A SHORT...BUT POTENT STRIP OF FORCING ACROSS THE WEST AND
CENTRAL CWA. MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF 30 TO
40 KTS SUPPORT A CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS ACROSS THE WEST IN THE
EVENING AS THIS FORCING INCREASES. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY
CONCERN...BUT SIGNIFICANT DCAPE FROM ANTECEDENT DRY AIR ABOVE 750
HPA MAY BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME ANY LOW-LEVEL STABILITY TO PRODUCE
STRONG SFC WINDS. THE CHANCE IS QUITE CONDITIONAL UPON THE TIMELY
ALIGNMENT OF THE DEEP FORCING AND THE SFC FRONT. 00Z GUIDANCE HAS
SLOWED THE SFC FRONT SLIGHTLY...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE
FOR STRONGER STORMS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST HALF AS THE DEEP FORCING IS SLOW
TO EXIT. SOME DEEP-LAYER DRYING AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOLYSIS WILL END
MOST OF THE PRECIP BY LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS REMOVED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT.
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. THE LOW-
LEVEL FRONT FROM SUN NIGHT AND MON WILL HAVE STALLED ACROSS WI AND
LOWER MI BY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL BEGIN TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE
TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW FORMING AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGH ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. DRY AIR SHOULD LIMIT PRECIP
CHANCES...BUT WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE WI BORDER FOR THE
AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...DEEP TROUGHING DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL INDUCE A SFC LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE TUESDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IS ON THE RISE FOR THE
FORECAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WAA PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD
ACROSS THE CWA FROM SW TO NE TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN...A PROLONGED
PERIOD WITH LOW-LEVEL FGEN...MID-LEVEL Q-VECTOR CONV...AND A SERIES
OF JET STREAKS...WILL BRING RAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA WED AND WED
NIGHT. WITH MODEL AGREEMENT GROWING...HAVE ADDED SOME LIKELY POPS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR WED.
DEEP MOISTURE WILL EXIT WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT LINGERING LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM.
SOME SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY FOR UPSLOPE REGIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR.
PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY FRIDAY MORNING AS SFC AND
MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD.
STRENGTHENING SW FLOW TONIGHT MAY RESULT IN LLWS CONDITIONS
AT ALL TAF SITES WHICH WILL LAST INTO SUN MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 456 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DURING THIS TIME...A LOW WILL
MOVE FROM S SASKATCHEWAN ACROSS NW ONTARIO...AND TO JAMES BAY LATE
ON SUNDAY WHILE DEEPENING. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE INTO QUEBEC ON
MONDAY AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT.
WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 25
KTS...HOWEVER SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY MAY GUST NEAR
30 KTS AT THE HIGHER OBSERVATION PLATFORMS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL CANADA AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY MORNING WILL CROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
111 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SUMMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS INLAND
OF LAKE MICHIGAN NEAR 90 ON BOTH TODAY AND SUNDAY AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. ALL OF THIS IS
DUE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH THAT BY SUNDAY WILL BE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MEANWHILE... A STRONG CANADIAN
STORM WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA TRAILING A COLD FRONT
BEHIND IT. THAT FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN MONDAY AND
STALL THERE. THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. A STRONG...FALL LIKE STORM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS ON MONDAY AND THAT WILL TRACK ALONG THE FRONT TOWARD
MICHIGAN. THIS FALL LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THEN MUCH COOLER AND BREEZY WEATHER
ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE SYSTEMS STRONG COLD FRONT.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 709 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
I HAVE ADDED LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
AFTERNOON FORECAST AND DECREASED THE CONVECTION NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-94 THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONVECTION DEVELOPING BETWEEN US-131 AND US-31 EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON ON THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THE NAM IS
SHOWING 2000 TO 25000 J/KG OF MOST UNSTABLE CAPE IN THAT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR ABOVE 800 MB... WE
COULD STILL SEE A FEW ISOLATED STORMS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT MID SUMMER LIKE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLING OVER CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN
MONDAY WILL BRING THE PROSPECT OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE
PICTURE.
A LARGE RIDGE WILL CREST OVER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDER THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE THIS
EVENING. WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE OVERHEAD THAT MEANS A LOT OF WARM
AIR AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE. THAT
ALSO MEANS A LOT OF VERY DRY AIR AT MID AND HIGH LEVELS. THAT SORT
OF SET UP WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THERE IS JUST ONE LITTLE GLITCH TO WATCH TODAY. THE SAME SYSTEM
THAT BROUGHT THE CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING STALLS OVER OHIO/INDIANA TODAY. THAT PUTS THE DEFORMATION
ZONE OF THAT SYSTEM OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA (NEAR AND SOUTH OF
I-94). IN THIS AREA THERE WILL BE LESS SUBSIDENCE SO SOME
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE. I PUT LOW CHANCE POPS IN THAT AREA AS A
RESULT OF THIS CONSIDERATION.
THE FRONT TRAILING THE CANADIAN STORM SYSTEM REACHES LOWER
MICHIGAN MONDAY THEN STALLS. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS...THERE IS INSTABILITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE
WITH THE FRONT SO I HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.
I USED THE 1000/925 MB THICKNESS TOOL TO COME UP WITH THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO 90
INLAND BOTH DAYS... ONLY THE MID 80S MONDAY DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
A CONSENSUS OF LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BRING
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MIDWEEK WITH AN ELEVATED RISK
FOR STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WX AT THAT TIME.
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY. FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT IN A VERY WARM AND HUMID AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL NOT COME UNTIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION.
A MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM
FOR VERY LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE COMBINATION OF AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND A LAKE BREEZE COULD
LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE THE KGRR TAF SITES STANDS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR THIS TO
HAPPEN. SO I DO FEATURE A VCTS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL AS WE GO INTO THE EVENING. FOR WILL
LIKELY REDEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
LATE TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY NOON ON SUNDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 321 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY WILL SURELY BRING STRONGER WINDS AND
SIGNIFICANT WAVES...THAT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. OTHERWISE GREAT
BEACH WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS THE RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 626 AM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
FRIDAY THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF
2 OR 3 INCHES IN A FEW RURAL LOCATIONS. AREAL FLOODING HAS BEEN
LIMITED AND RIVER GAUGES ARE REMAINING BELOW BANKFULL. FLOODING IS
NOT EXPECTED FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...WDM
SHORT TERM...WDM
LONG TERM...LAURENS
AVIATION...MJS
HYDROLOGY...CAS
MARINE...WDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WAS EXITING THE AREA WHILE A SFC LOW WAS MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THIS RESULTED IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF
HOT AND HUMID AIR. TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN INTO THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER 90S THIS AFTERNOON. HEAT INDICES WERE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOWER 90S AS WELL...BUT TWM REACHED 100 AT 234 PM. CIRRUS WAS
FLOWING OVER THE TOP OF MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SOME CU IN NW
WI.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN ND HAS SHOWN GLIMPSES THAT IT
IS FALLING APART. JUICY ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...BUT THE
INSTABILITY WANES AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...PLUS THERE IS NO UPPER
FORCING AS THE FRONT REACHES NW MN BY 06Z. DELAYED THE ONSET OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 06Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE NO RAIN IN THE
AREA THROUGH 06Z. BY 12Z...MODELS AGREE ON THE FRONT REACHING NE MN.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS DIMINISHING FOR ANY STORMS TO FIRE ON. HAVE
TRIED TO BLEND THE HIRES WITH THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES FOR POPS/QPF/WEATHER.
ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD INTO NW WI. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
IS STILL LIMITED. GREATEST MOISTURE SOURCE WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE REGION WHERE POPS ARE HIGHEST. MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING AND QPF AND USED A BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN CWA THAT CONTINUES INTO MONDAY DUE TO
THE SLOW FRONT MOVEMENT. WE ENTER A QUIET PERIOD FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
THE NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/LOW MOVING
FROM THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT...MOVING ACROSS MINNESOTA
WEDNESDAY...AND OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THIS STORM...WITH THE
ECMWF FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS. IT STILL
LOOKS LIKE THIS STORM SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TO THE
CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS TUESDAY-THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY REMAIN ACTIVE WITH CONTINUING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHS IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL
AT LEAST 05Z TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINALS SUNDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT STRONG
MID LEVEL WINDS WILL PRODUCE LLWS AFTER THE SURFACE WINDS DIMINISH
AROUND 01Z. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE
TOWARDS THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST AFTER 05Z TONIGHT...LOWERING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IFR...WITH THE STORMS DIMINISHING AS
THEY MOVE TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN BEHIND THE STORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 68 85 59 74 / 40 20 10 10
INL 67 76 49 69 / 30 10 0 10
BRD 69 82 58 75 / 40 10 10 10
HYR 68 83 60 74 / 0 30 60 20
ASX 69 85 60 73 / 0 10 30 10
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE RAP MODEL SUGGESTS CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP JUST WEST OF
VALENTINE AROUND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE
POINT OF A DRYLINE BULGE...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT AND DEEP
MOISTURE. THE BEST GUESS ON CAPE WOULD BE 3500J/KG WHICH ISNT
MUCH RELATIVE TO THE 16C TEMPERATURE AT 700MB. STILL THE RAP AND
OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING DESTABLIZATION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NCNTL SANDHILLS FOR SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOLLOWS THE WARMER SOLNS AND STILL USES
THE LESS DEEPLY MIXED MODELS FOR DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
THIS PRODUCES HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND
NCNTL NEB.
STORM CHANCES SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 22Z AND INITIALLY...THE
BUNKER RIGHT MOTION IS VERY WEAK SUGGESTING OUTFLOW DOMINANT
BEHAVIOR. WINDS ALOFT AT 300 MB INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND STORM MOTION SHOULD TAKE OFF TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST. STORMS MAY DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE PANHANDLE AND MOVE
EAST SOUTHEAST ALL EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE NAM MAINTAINS
2500J/KG OF 750MB COMPUTED CAPE ALONG THE PACIFIC COLD WHICH
SUGGESTS STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE THIS
EVENING BEFORE THIS INSTABILITY MOVES EAST OF THE FCST AREA
AROUND 06Z. THUS INITIALLY THE STORM MODE WOULD BE PULSE WITH
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MORE
DOMINANT THREAT TONIGHT. SPC GIVES THE FCST AREA A MARGINAL
SEVERE WEATHER RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA TO
START THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE SE DURING
THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY AS WE WARM
UP...ALTHOUGH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TEMPS LIKELY TO TOP OUT IN
THE 80S. MODELS WAVERING ON HOW FAR TO THE NW OF THE FRONT
SHOWERS DEVELOP...THUS LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP IN NW CWA. SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ZONAL AS THE RIDGE WILL HAVE FLATTEN DUE TO
NORTHERN TROUGH. MODELS BRING A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL WAVES TO
BRING SOME ADDED LIFT TO THE REGION.
SOME CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER...AND
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. MODELS SLOWING STORM MOTION TO 10 TO 15 KTS
AND PWATS REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 1.50 INCHES...AND LOCALLY PUSHING
CLOSE TO 1.75 INCHES.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS
TUESDAY. MODELS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WILL GIVE THE FRONT
A PUSH SOUTHWARD...HOWEVER THE MID LEVEL LIFT IS BECOMING
IMPRESSIVE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. 850 MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND 10C. AT THE SFC...MOS GUIDANCE HAS FOLLOWED
SUIT WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. TRENDED COOLER
WITH TEMPS...BUT NOT READY TO JUMP THAT COLD JUST YET. IT IS
STILL AUGUST AND WANT TO SEE MORE CONSISTENCY WITH THE COLD MODEL
DEPICTION.
IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS AND MODELS HAVE
TRENDED DRIER TO END THE WEEK. ALSO SHOULD SEE TEMPS REBOUND
CLOSER TO NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OVER WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ONLY CONCERNS ARE THE
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...AS WELL AS THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND
GUSTS IN ADDITION TO REDUCED CIGS/VISBYS. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME
THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS IN
QUESTION...AND MAY REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. BEST CHANCES AT KVTN
WILL BE AROUND 00Z- 03Z...AND 03Z TO 07Z AT KLBF. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO SWITCH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS A FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS REGION. WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTH BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING
AT KVTN. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AT KLBF AS THE FRONT STALLS OUT
NEARBY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NEZ005>010-025-026-094.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CDC
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
950 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PORTIONS OF
MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF CLARK COUNTY. OTHERWISE HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED STAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MOJAVE DESERT REGION
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING ITS HOLD AND ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE
TODAY. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS
OF MOHAVE COUNTY AND MAY FAR EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY...ESPECIALLY IF
YOU BELIEVE THE 12Z NAM12 OUTPUT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE STABLE
OVER CLARK COUNTY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE STILL AROUND OR
JUST OVER AN INCH IN CLARK COUNTY SO WITH SOME HEATING I WOULD THINK
THE MOUNTAINS COULD STILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THEREFORE THE
INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS OKAY AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED. -HARRISON-
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
300 AM PDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.
TODAY IS THE LAST DAY TO EVEN CONSIDER ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. MODELS SHOW
MOISTURE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS AN INCH OR
SLIGHTLY BETTER OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO AND CLARK
COUNTIES. THE PROBLEM WILL BE A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT NUDGES WESTWARD AND TEMPS ALOFT WARM. FORECAST
SOUNDING DATA SHOWS STRONG CAPPING IN PLACE THROUGH MIDDAY AND NEVER
COMPLETELY ERODING AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM. THE ONLY POSSIBLE HELP COULD
COME FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT DECAYED EARLIER
IN THE NIGHT. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY
REACHING INTO EASTERN SAN BERN, CLARK AND SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTIES.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE KESX VAD WIND PROFILE SHOW NO
DISCERNIBLE CHANGE AS THESE REMNANT CLOUDS PASSED THROUGH. MODEL
FORECAST DATA SHOWS NO OTHER EMBEDDED FEATURE THAT WOULD PROVIDE A
LIFTING MECHANISM SO DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE THE PRIMARY PROVIDER OF
LIFT TODAY. THE HRRR AND NAM12 SHOW LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING FROM CELLS
THIS AFTERNOON IN MOHAVE COUNTY AND THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS SO
LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION OF STORMS IN THESE AREAS. UNLESS I`M
MISSING SOME MICROSCALE FEATURE OR MI-NUTE DETAIL IN THE MODEL DATA,
MY GUESS IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN LAS VEGAS ARE SLIM TO NONE
THROUGH MONDAY.
FORECAST CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO IMPACTS FROM HEAT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN LAS VEGAS ARE 102 DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND SO THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR TEMPERATURES THAT ARE 6-8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. IT IS MORE THAN LIKELY TODAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT BY THE AMOUNT OF LINGERING
MOISTURE HANGING AROUND THE AREA BUT THIS WILL JUST MAKE IT FEEL ON
THE MUGGY SIDE. AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING TO NEAR
RECORD LEVELS IN MANY DESERT AREAS AND IN SOME ISOLATED CASES...MAY
BREAK RECORDS. NO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR LAS
VEGAS BUT AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS 114-
118 DEGREES WHILE DEATH VALLEY COULD SEE HIGHS APPROACHING 125
DEGREES. IF PLANNING OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THIS WEEKEND, REMEMBER TO TAKE
NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO DEAL WITH THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS AND
KEEP IN MIND THE SYMPTOMS AND NECESSARY ACTIONS NEEDED TO DEAL WITH
ANY HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODELS NOW INDICATE WE WILL NOT COOL DOWN QUITE
AS FAST AS WAS INDICATED THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. THIS IS DUE TO
KEEPING A GULF OF ALASKA TROUGH FURTHER INLAND AS IT TRACKS DOWN
OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND DROPS ACROSS MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY
TUESDAY. THIS TRACK WILL HAVE LITTLE INFLUENCE ON OUR REGION AND
WILL ALLOW THE STRONG CLOSED HIGH TO REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A BROADER TROUGH IS
THEN FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP A
GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AND HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND BACK TO NORMAL THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND TYPICAL DIURNAL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...TYPICAL DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT WHEN ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOW. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN MOHAVE COUNTY...
MAINLY THE NORTHERN REGIONS...AND THE CLARK COUNTY MOUNTAINS TODAY
WITH DRY CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SALMEN/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
146 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PIEDMONT TROUGH...PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM SATURDAY...
MORNING UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS SHOW CONTRAST IN THE AIR MASS BETWEEN
KMHX AND KGSO. THE KMHX SOUNDING IS NOTICEABLY DRIER AND CAPPED...
WHEREAS THE KGSO SOUNDING...WHILE CAPPED...IS MORE MOIST AND WITH A
CAP THAT IS WEAKER. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT KMHX IS 0.81...
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...COMPARED WITH NEARLY 1.25
INCHES AT KGSO. MANY CONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY...
INCLUDING RIDGING ALOFT...A GENERAL DRY AIR MASS IN THE MEAN...AND
FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA K INDICES THAT ARE IN THE TEENS
AT BEST WITH MINIMAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND
K INDICES ARE HIGHEST TOWARD THE YADKIN RIVER...AND IT IS THERE
WHERE THE RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A SUFFICIENTLY WEAK CAP THAT
THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THREE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
LATEST HRRR WRF GUIDANCE SHOWS LESS THAN A HANDFUL OF SHOWERS IN AN
AREA WEST OF ABOUT A LINE FROM KGSO TO KRCZ. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER
COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN DECENT 850MB UVV THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS
ALOFT INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AS
WELL AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...BUT LOW-LEVELS SEEM TOO DRY
AND STABLE TO RETURN THE MENTION TO THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES
87 TO 92 WITH SUSTAINED WINDS UNDER 10 MPH...AND ONLY A COUPLE OF
BRIEF GUSTS A LITTLE ABOVE THAT EXPECTED TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE
TONIGHT...TRANQUIL WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH OUR AREA
CAUGHT IN BETWEEN THE MAJOR WEATHER PLAYERS...NAMELY THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE OH AND TN VALLEYS...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE NE COAST...
AND A RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE SE COAST. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN POSITIONED JUST TO OUR NORTH...AND THE AIRMASS IS
PROGGED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (PWAT STILL
HOLDING AT AROUND AN INCH). SO FOR NOW...WILL KEEP THE DRY FORECAST
GOING...ALTHOUGH SUNSHINE MAY BE FILTERED SOMEWHAT BY HIGH CLOUDS.
LITTLE AIRMASS CHANGE...SO HIGHS STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID-
UPR 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM SATURDAY...
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HOLDS TIGHT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE BY MID-LATE WEEK IN DEEPENING SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS AN UPPER TROF MIGRATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
CONUS. HEIGHTS BUILD MODESTLY AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF...WITH HIGHS
AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS MONDAY BOOSTED TO MAINLY
LOWER 90S WITH POTENTIAL FOR MID 90S BY LATE WEEK. SIMILARLY...
INITIAL LOW RAIN CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL BE SKEWED TO DIURNAL
WITH VERY WEAK FORCING OR SHEAR.. POPS WILL BE INCREASING TO AT
LEAST CHANCE CATEGORY THURSDAY AND MORE SO ON FRIDAY IN A MORE
FAVORABLE DYNAMIC REGIME AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SURFACE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE
OF ANY VERY ISOLATED SHOWER...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING LIGHT FOG MOST PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND KRWI. UNDER A
VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW...GUIDANCE IS QUITE VARIED IN TERMS OF
SURFACE WIND DIRECTIONS AND LEANED TOWARD THE CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
IN TERMS OF A WIND DIRECTION IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS WHERE THERE
WAS MORE CONFIDENCE TO DO SO. SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE UNDER 10KT AND
FREQUENTLY 5KT OR LESS.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...GENERAL PERSISTENCE IN THE
FORECAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IF ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TO OCCUR THEY
WOULD MOST LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...LEAST TOWARD
KRWI...THROUGH THEN. MOISTURE INCREASES TUESDAY AND ALONG WITH THAT
MOISTURE COMES BETTER CHANCES FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. THOSE CONDITIONS
PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY COUPLED WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING AREAS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
533 PM EDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL
BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WILL
EXTEND THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. MORE UNSETTLED AND
SHOWERY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ELONGATED UPPER SHEAR AXIS DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EASTERN
GLAKS AND FINGERLAKES AND IS INITIATING AND MAINTAINING SCT-NMRS
SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW YORK STATE NORTH CENTRAL PA
EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO PEAK SHORTLY BEFORE SLOWLY
DISSIPATING BY MID TO LATE EVENING AS BUILDING RIDGE CAPS THINGS
OFF.
TEMPS INTO THE 80S TO AROUND 90F IN THE SE WILL FALL BACK TO
GENERALLY THE LOWER TO MID 60S AS HUMIDITY BEGINS TO SLOWLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY GIVING US A VERY WARM DAY
WITH JUST A MINIMAL CHANCE FOR A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTH AGAIN...AND WENT WITH LOW
POPS THERE IN HEAT OF THE DAY. HIGHS SOLIDLY IN THE 80S
EVERYWHERE...WILL APPROACH 90 OVER SERN AREAS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OVERALL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...KEEPING THE WARMTH AND HUMIDITY GOING FOR
SEVERAL DAYS.
A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
MOVE BACK IN ON ITS HEELS FOR MID WEEK.
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS WARM...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER
WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRINGING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.
DAILY HIGHS WILL AVERAGE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRES TRACKING ACROSS UPSTATE NY WILL PRODUCE SCT
TSRA OVR NORTHERN PA THRU ARND SUNSET THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS
AND HRRR OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST A BRIEF VIS REDUCTION REMAINS POSS
AT KBFD THRU ARND 00Z AND AT KIPT BTWN 23Z-01Z.
EARLY EVENING TSRA SHOULD DIE WITH LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET.
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD LATE NIGHT FOG. CLEARING SKIES...A
CALM WIND AND WET GROUND SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY DENSE FOG IN THE
VALLEYS OF NORTHERN PA BTWN 04Z-12Z. KBFD APPEARS LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF IFR/LIFR VSBYS SOMETIME BTWN 04Z-12Z.
KIPT COULD POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCE IFR CONDS EARLY SUN AM IF RAIN
FALLS THERE THIS EVENING. ACROSS SOUTHERN PA...NOTHING MORE THAN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT /MVFR/ FOG EXPECTED ARND SUNRISE.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE MIDWEST
ON SUNDAY...ENSURING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND.
OUTLOOK...
MON...NO SIG WX EXPECTED. ISO TSTMS WEST.
TUE-THU...ISO/SCT TSRA IMPACTS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RXR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/RXR
SHORT TERM...RXR
LONG TERM...LA CORTE/TYBURSKI
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/RXR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
UPDATE...
THE MAIN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TODAY WAS TO INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TN WHERE HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENT
SHOWERS/TSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE TN RIVER DRIFTING SLOWLY
WEST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM CURRENT STORMS SHOULD
FORCE NEW DEVELOPMENT IN THE BUOYANT AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE COLD
POOL DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DECREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. ALSO
LOWERED HIGHS WHERE CURRENT CLOUD COVER/PRECIP IS LIMITING
WARMING.
TVT
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...
A QUIET MID-AUGUST MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
AREA RADARS ARE SHOWING A LINE OF LIGHT RETURNS STRETCHING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI JUST SOUTH OF OUR CWA INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA.
ONE LONE SHOWER EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE HAS HEAVY ENOUGH RETURNS
TO SUGGEST THAT PRECIP MAY BE REACHING THE GROUND AS IT APPROACHES
KGWX AND MONROE COUNTY. ANOTHER ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI BUT
THE REST OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM...
THE PLEASANT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH REMAINING DRY. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL BE GREATER TODAY MAINLY IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH EAST. THE HRRR KEEPS AFTERNOON CONVECTION WEST OF THE
MS RIVER. THESE DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AS WE
LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
EVEN MORE ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND LOWER
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES PULLING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LONG TERM...
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH LOWS NEAR 70 AND CHANCES OF STORMS EACH EVENING.THE BEST
CHANCES OF AREA WIDE PRECIP DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AS MODELS AGREE ON A STRENGTHENING UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL INCREASE AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS INCREASING MOISTURE
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT MATRICULATES THROUGH THE AREA BRINGING
WITH IT COOLER AIR FOR THURSDAY. MODELS AGREE ON AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND.
JPM3
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
NEARLY STATIONARY UPPER LEVEL TROF AND RETURN OF MODIFIED AND
UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED TSRA
OVER TN RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS FAR WEST AT MKL AND TUP...AND POSSIBLY AS WEST AS
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE MEM TRACON FOR A BRIEF PERIOD THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A DIURNAL WEAKENING TREND THIS EVENING...WITH
MOST TSRA CONTRACTING BACK TO THE EAST OF THE TN RIVER THIS
EVENING.
PWB
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1251 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF CYCLE/
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA LOCATED BETWEEN KDRT AND KSAT. THIS SHRA/TSRA
ACTIVITY IS MOVING TO THE SW AND WILL NOT IMPACT KDRT.
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP BACK UPSTREAM
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTH OF KAUS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND DRIFT SW TOWARDS THE
MAJOR TERMINALS. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN CENTRAL TAF SITES FROM 1830Z
THROUGH 01Z TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY HAVE LOCAL 30-50 MPH WIND GUSTS
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE IF A STORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTS A TERMINAL SITE. WILL MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON IF DIRECT SHRA/TSRA IS NEEDED. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONTINUING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 827 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
UPDATE...
HAVE EXTENDED CHANCE POPS TO THE NORTH INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND
FARTHER SOUTH THIS MORNING...WHILE ADDING CHANCE POPS WESTWARD
TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. RE-TRENDED
ALL OF THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MORNING OBSERVATIONS.
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM TRAVIS COUNTY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH COMAL AND BEXAR COUNTY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS BUT A BRIEF WIND GUST IS
ALSO POSSIBLE. CENTRAL TEXAS CURRENTLY SITS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING US WITH THE
HOT AND DRY TEMPERATURES FOR THE LAST FEW WEEKS. A TROUGH IS
TAKING SHAPE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE HIGH. BASED ON MORNING RAP
MODEL ANALYSIS THERE ARE SUBTLE SIGNS THAT A SHORT WAVE AT THE
TAIL END OF THIS TROUGH SITUATED OVER EAST TEXAS IS WHAT IS
KICKING OFF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE HRRR AND TEXAS
TECH WRF ALSO PICK UP IN THIS FEATURE IN THEIR MODEL REFLECTIVITY
FIELDS AS THEY CONTINUE TO KICK OFF SHOWERS AND STORMS JUST WEST
OF I-35 THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING THE FOCUS
TOWARDS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A
PRE-PACKAGE UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO BUMP UP POPS EVEN MORE ACROSS
THE EDWARDS PLATEAU BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND THE 12Z MODELS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
AVIATION...
/12Z TAFS/
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO MAY CREATE MVFR CIGS ACROSS KAUS FOR FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH HIGHER GUSTS
ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AND NEAR NEWLY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
15/00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST...WITH NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. THIS
ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
EDWARDS PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY. WE/LL ALSO INCLUDE A
CHANCE ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS AS THE HI-RES MODELS DO SHOW SOME
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. ON SUNDAY...THE MODELS SUGGEST
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
INTO PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SHIFT THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION ALONG AND EAST OF I-35...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COASTAL
PLAINS. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HIGHS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED TOMORROW. LOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS.
LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE ABOVE MENTIONED MID-LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE MODELS DO SHOW SOME DISAGREEMENT IN HOW
FAR WEST THIS TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE...WITH THE CANADIAN BEING ONE
OF THE FARTHEST WEST. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES CONFINED
TO AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 THROUGH TUESDAY GIVEN
DEEPER MOISTURE NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. BY MID-WEEK...A FAIRLY
STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND HIGH PLAINS
STATES. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DIFFER
WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT AND FOR NOW...WE/LL
GENERALLY FOLLOW THE FARTHER SOUTH GFS SOLUTION. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MID TO LATE WEEK
ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOLING TREND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 95 75 / 10 10 20 20 10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 72 97 72 95 73 / 10 10 20 20 10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 73 95 74 / 10 20 20 20 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 94 73 / 10 10 10 10 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 77 100 76 98 77 / 10 - - 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 74 95 75 / 10 10 20 20 10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 72 95 73 / 10 10 10 10 -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 74 97 74 94 74 / 10 10 20 20 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 75 96 74 95 75 / 10 20 20 30 20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 97 75 95 76 / 10 20 20 20 10
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 75 98 74 95 75 / 10 20 20 20 10
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...ALLEN
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...LH