Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/14/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
602 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
CURRENTLY...
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.
REST OF TODAY...
HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TOMORROW...
500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
KCOS AND KPUB WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME TSRA/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES THEN
CLEARING. OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
334 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
CURRENTLY...
LINE OF Q NOTED OVER THE FAR SE PLAINS. SPC ANALYSIS INDICATES 3000
J/KG MIXED CAPE OVER THIS REGION. IN ADDITION...SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO INDICES ARE INCREASING OVER THIS SAME AREA.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLD CONVECTION WAS NOTED OVER THE MTNS.
THIS AFTERNOON...
MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS BOUNDARY OUT EAST. GIVEN THE
CAPE...INCREASING VALUES ON THE NON SUPERCELL SPC PAGE AND HRRR
SHOWING CONVECTION INITIATING OVER THE REGION...CANT RULE OUT A WEAK
ROPE TORNADO DEVELOPING BETWEEN NOW AND LATE AFTERNOON OVER E
KIOWA...PROWERS AND POSSIBLY BACA COUNTIES. OTHER CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TRRN AND POSSIBLY THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF EL PASO COUNTY. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM
DEVELOPING OVER THE REST OF THE PLAINS.
TONIGHT...
WITH LIMITED FORCING OVER THE REGION...CONVECTION THAT DOES INITIATE
SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
LOOKS A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED REGARDING CONVECTION INTENSITY AND
DURATION FOR THIS EVENING. I CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD STORM LINGERING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT OVERALL NOT MUCH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE M/U60S PLAINS WITH 40S AND 50S
MTNS/VALLEYS.
TOMORROW...
WEAK BOUNDARY WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS TOMORROW AND MONSOON MSTR
WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THE BRUNT OF THE
DEEPER MSTR WILL BE OVER THE CONTDVD AND WESTWARD...ENOUGH FORCING
WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS AND MTNS FOR ISOLD TO SCT ACTIVITY DURING
THE LATER AFTERNOON TIME PD. NAM APPEARS TO BE THE MOST HEAVY
HANDED OF ALL THE GUIDANCE AND APPEARS OVERDONE...BUT GIVEN THE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE LLVL FORCING...WE MAY SEE AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TOMORROW TO BE IN THE L/M90S WITH 80S IN THE COS
REGION...AND 70S AND 80S IN THE THE MTNS. HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING WINDS ALOFT
LIGHT...BEFORE FLATTENING OUT AND EDGING TO THE SOUTH BEGINNING
SATURDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL FEED DIURNAL AFTN AND
EVE MT SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW-
MOVING AND MOVEMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO ANTICIPATE. LOOK FOR MAX
TEMPS TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH AFTN HIGHS IN THE 80S
FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER HIGH GETS PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AS A
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE SAT THROUGH MON...WITH
THE HIGH CENTER SETTLING OVER AZ. THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES A COLD FRONT
DOWN INTO E CO ON SUN...WITH MODELS SAYING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE OVER
THE PALMER DVD SOMETIME IN THE LATE MORNING. AFTER A WARM DAY
SUN...THE FRONT MAY HELP TO COOL TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ON MON...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR THE PLAINS...AND AROUND 80 FOR THE
HIGH VALLEYS. AS FOR PCPN...THERE LOOKS TO BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
POPS SUN...BUT MORE SO SUN EVE AND DEFINITELY INTO MON. THE BEST
WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD PCPN COVERAGE COMES MON AFTN AND EVE ACROSS
ALL OF THE MTS AND E PLAINS.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD GETS INTERESTING AS
MODELS AGREE ON DROPPING A STRONG UPPER LOW DOWN ACROSS THE PAC NW
ON MON...BUT THEN THE SOLUTIONS DIVERGE. THE EC WANTS TO CONTINUE
DROPPING THE LOW INTO THE GREAT BASIN TUE AND WED...WHILE THE GFS
SWEEPS THE LOW DUE EAST ACROSS ID AND MT. FOR NOW WENT WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED MT CONVECTION TUE AFTN AND EVE...THEN COOLER AND DRIER
FOR WED. MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 334 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
OVERALL EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE KCOS REGION...AND A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANE OF CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON OVER KCOS AND KPUB. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR -TSRA.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015
UPDATED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL AND RADAR TRENDS ACROSS
THE CWA. THE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN THROUGH THE LATE EVENING
HOURS WILL BE THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR INCLUDING EL PASO AND
PUEBLO COUNTIES AND THE FAR SE CO PLAINS NEAR THE CO/KS BORDER.
THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A WEAK MCS DEVELOPING
ACROSS EL PASO AND PUEBLO COUNTIES BETWEEN 01-05Z TONIGHT. LAPS
AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOW 1000-1200 J/KG OF CAPE WITH DEEP
MOISTURE IN PLACE (PWATS 1.2-1.3 WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW 60S)
AND WEAK BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KNOTS. ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS AS CAPE VALUES ARE
CLOSE TO 2000 J/KG. SPC ANALYSIS ALSO DEPICTS UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMA IN PLACE WITH DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND SFC
FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING...WITH THE HRRR ALSO DEVELOPING A FEW
STRONGER STORMS OVER THIS AREA BETWEEN 01ZZ-07Z. STORM ACTIVITY
SHOULD EASE BY 08Z TONIGHT AS SURFACE COOLING LIMITS INSTABILITY
OVERNIGHT. LUKINBEAL
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON...AS MOISTURE (PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER 1 INCH) AND
INSTABILITY (CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG MOST AREAS) REMAIN PLENTIFUL.
GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE HRRR FOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS FOR LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...WITH A WAVE OF STRONGER CONVECTION OVER THE
MOUNTAINS MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR OVER PUEBLO AND EL
PASO COUNTIES IN THE 21Z-01Z TIME FRAME...BRINGING A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN TO AREAS AROUND COLORADO SPRINGS/WALDO CANYON. FARTHER
SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING...WITH SOME POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL
SEE A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...WITH MODELS AND LATEST
SATELLITE LOOP SUGGESTING LEAST ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS AS STRONGER CONVECTION OVER AZ STAY FAIRLY FAR TO THE
WEST.
OVERNIGHT...HRRR DEVELOPS ANOTHER BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP OVER THE
ARKANSAS VALLEY 04Z-06Z FROM FREMONT COUNTY EAST THROUGH PUEBLO AND
LA JUNTA...WITH FAIRLY VIGOROUS CONVECTION WELL INTO THE NIGHT. NOT
SURE HOW REALISTIC THIS IS GIVEN INITIAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
POTENTIALLY STABILIZING THE AIR MASS SOMEWHAT...BUT WILL MAINTAIN
POPS PAST MIDNIGHT MANY AREAS AS MOST MODELS KEEP AT LEAST SOME
PRECIP GOING PAST 06Z.
ON WEDNESDAY...EXPECT A DOWNTURN IN CONVECTION AS UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE...WHILE POCKET
OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN NM ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TSRA MOST LOCATIONS IN
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH STORM INTENSITY AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE LESS THAN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN. MAX TEMPS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE UPWARD AS AIR MASS DRIES AND HEIGHTS BUILD...THOUGH READINGS
WILL STILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW MID AUGUST AVERAGES BY LATE DAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY...KEEPING
WINDS ALOFT LIGHT. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL FEED DIURNAL
AFTERNOON AND EVE MT SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND MOVEMENT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO
ANTICIPATE. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT STEADY THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 80S FOR THE HIGH
VALLEYS...AND 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE E PLAINS.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO SOMEWHAT FLATTEN
THE UPPER RIDGE AND EDGE IT TO THE SOUTH. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
DROP DOWN THE E PLAINS ON SUNDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THERE DOES NOT
SEEM TO BE MUCH BY WAY OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR INCREASED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH THIS FEATURE. LOOK FOR A CONTINUATION OF
THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON AND EVE MT STORMS...THOUGH THERE IS A
SLIGHT HINT OF PERHAPS SOME LINGERING SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE 80S TO LOWER
90S FOR THE PLAINS...AND 80S FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A LOW DROPPING OUT OF CANADA AND
INTO MT AND THE DAKOTAS FOR TUE...SHUNTING THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE
SW. THIS IS STILL A BIT FAR OUT TIME-WISE TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES...BUT IF THIS SOLUTION PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THEN
THIS MIGHT BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MORE PCPN FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
MOORE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT TUE AUG 11 2015
UPPER MONSOON DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK ACROSS FLIGHT AREA TONIGHT
KEEPING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION AREAS WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS
CAN BE ENCOUNTERED. ALSO...SOME PATCHES OF MVFR STRATUS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY DUE TO RECENT
PRECIPITATION AND LIGHT WINDS.
ON WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER
COLORADO...DECREASING THE OVERALL AMOUNT OF MONSOON THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR
ISOLATED STORMS BEGINNING IN THE MOUNTAINS AFTER 16Z AND ACROSS THE
PLAINS AFTER ABOUT 20Z. AGAIN...LOOKING AT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FLIGHT AREA WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...THE EXPECTATIONS ARE MUCH
THE SAME AS FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO. MOSTLY VFR EXCEPT IN
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. BOTH KCOS AND KPUB COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS
TOMORROW BETWEEN ABOUT 21Z AND 04Z. KALS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY REMAIN
DRY AT THIS POINT SO NO STORMS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY...A FEW AREAS OF MVFR STRATUS COULD SHOW UP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS. HAVE INTRODUCED AN MVFR
STRATUS DECK IN THE KCOS AND KPUB TAFS AROUND 09Z TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AL/LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
543 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
08Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE
EVOLVED INTO A VERY AMPLIFIED AND SLOW PROGRESSION PATTERN FOR THE
MIDDLE OF AUGUST. LOOKING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE CONTINENT WE
FIND A DEEP UPPER LOW SPINNING OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST.
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT H5 HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW BASED
ON THE LATEST NAEFS OUTPUT ARE APPROACHING -5 STANDARD ANOMALIES
BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. A QUICK AND EASY WAY TO THINK ABOUT STANDARD
ANOMALIES IS TO RELATE THEM TO HOW DIFFERENT THE MODEL FORECAST IS
FROM THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MEAN. THE HIGHER THE NUMBER (POSITIVE OR
NEGATIVE)...THE FURTHER ABOVE OR BELOW THE CLIMO MEAN THE FORECAST
IS. THERE IS A VERY TIGHT UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT JUST INLAND
FROM THE PACIFIC COAST BETWEEN THIS UPPER LOW AND EXPANSIVE
LONGWAVE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA. HOW
TIGHT IS THE HEIGHT GRADIENT...WELL KEEPING WITH THE THEME OF
STANDARD ANOMALIES...THE V (SOUTH TO NORTH) COMPONENT OF THE WINDS
THROUGH A DEEP LAYER OVER THE GREAT BASIN ARE +3-5 ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY. THE UPPER RIDGED FLOW OF THE NORTHERN STREAM EXTENDS
EASTWARD OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
BEFORE TAKING A DEEP DIVE BACK SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE CONUS. THIS DEEP TROUGH NOW EXTENDS ALL THE WAY DOWN INTO
GA/CAROLINAS. AT THE MOMENT...THE FL PENINSULA RESIDES IN A WEAKLY
DEFINED UPPER PATTERN BETWEEN THIS TROUGH TO OUR NORTH...AND UPPER
RIDGING RETREATING WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
GUIDANCE ENSEMBLES STILL PREDICT THAT THE FAR SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL REACH
DOWN INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY THE END OF TODAY.
A WEAK SURFACE FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS SOUTHWARD ACROSS
AL/GA/CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR
THE I-10 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK...BUT
OUR POSITION BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
SUPPRESSED TO THE FL STRAITS WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL LIGHT WESTERLY
SYNOPTIC LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
TODAY...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND STALL NEAR THE
I-10 CORRIDOR LATER TODAY. OTHER THAN PERHAPS FAR NORTHERN AREAS
AROUND LEVY COUNTY...THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT
RELATED TO THIS FRONT AND THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN JUST NORTH OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...OUR FORECAST WILL MORE
RESEMBLE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY UNDER WESTERLY FLOW. ALREADY SEEING
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN THE
FAVORED WEAK WESTERLY FLOW. THESE WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE COAST
DURING THE FIRST FEW DAYLIGHT HOURS...ALTHOUGH THEY WILL BE WIDELY
SCATTERED. MUCH OF THE MORNING FOR MOST SPOTS WILL BE DRY WITH
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY...WILL SEE A SEA-BREEZE GET
JOINING. WITH THIS BOUNDARY INITIALIZATION...WE WILL SEE A
SCATTERING OF STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-75 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD FAIRLY QUICKLY PUSH INLAND BY THE
LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS IS NORMAL UNDER THIS
REGIME...THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS AND HIGHEST POPS TODAY WILL
BE OVER THESE INTERIOR ZONES AFTER 19/20Z.
ONE THING TO NOTE. THE THETAE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND
MINIMUM VALUES ALOFT ARE FAIRLY HIGH TODAY. LOOKING AT MOST SPOTS
BETWEEN 20-25K...WHICH IS GETTING INTO THE RANGE FAVORABLE FOR WET
MICROBURSTS GIVEN THE EXPECTED INSTABILITY. THE RAP IS EVEN
FORECASTING VALUES NEAR 30 UP TOWARD CITRUS/LEVY/SUMTER COUNTY.
GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE WET MICROBURST SEVERITY INDEX (WMSI)
CALCULATIONS ARE COMING UP WITH MARGINAL TO FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS FOR THE FORMATION OF WET MICROBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONGER STORMS. WOULD EXPECT MUCH OF THE AREA TO BE WITHIN THE
RANGE OF LOCALLY 40-50 MPH GUSTS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE TYPE GUSTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
JUST SOMETHING TO KEEP AND EYE ONE. KEEP IN MIND...THE WMSI IS A
CONDITIONAL INDEX...MEANING YOU NEED CONVECTION PRESENT FOR IT TO
MEAN ANYTHING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE VALUES MAY BE HIGH...THOSE AREA
BEHIND THE SEA-BREEZE WILL HAVE A LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION AND
HENCE STRONG GUSTS.
TONIGHT...
THE EVENING STORMS RELATED TO THE DIURNAL HEATING OF TODAY WILL
DISSIPATE OVER BY THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY THE LATER EVENING
HOURS...AND THEN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPING
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF AND MOVING ASHORE. SOME OF
THE HIRES GUIDANCE MEMBERS ARE RATHER ROBUST WITH THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY...AND TAKING AN NEIGHBORHOOD ENSEMBLE APPROACH DOES GIVE
HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY RAIN CHANCES BY DAWN NEAR THE COAST FROM
TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD.
THURSDAY LOOK TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE WET DAY OF THE
WEEK...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF TOTAL RAINFALL COVERAGE. THE WEAK
BOUNDARY WILL BE IN PLACE...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST POSITION OF THE COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE
WILL BE IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED BANDS OF
CONVECTION MOVING SHORE ARE PRETTY HIGH. WOULD THINK THE BEST
CHANCES FOR LONGER PERIODS OF RAINFALL WOULD BE NORTH OF THE
SARASOTA AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE FRONTAL FOCUS...BUT WOULD
ANTICIPATE/PLAN FOR SCT SHOWERS ALL THE WAY DOWN TO THE FORT MYERS
AREA. LATER IN THE DAY WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO SHIFT INLAND AWAY FROM THE
COAST...HOWEVER THE PROCESS IS LIKELY TO NOT BE AS DEFINED AS IT
WILL BE TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM...
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY-TUESDAY/...
THE SHIFTING MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER THE EASTERN SEA BOARD HELPS
PUSH A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THE EVOLUTION OF A CUTOFF MID-
LEVEL LOW LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY IS A TAD DIFFERENT IN THE 00Z
GFS COMPARED TO THE 00Z ECMWF.
THE GFS FAVORS A LESS PRONOUNCED CUTOFF LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF/LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF CARRIES MORE OF
AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
THE ECMWF SOLUTION KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED OVER THE
PENINSULA OF FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS SOLUTION ALLOWS THE BOUNDARY TO
WEAKEN AND THE MOISTURE TO RETREAT NORTH INTO SOUTH GEORGIA/NORTH
FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS MORE CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH
THE ECMWF...TENDED TO PREFER A WETTER FORECAST.
EITHER WAY...ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
GFS SOLUTION WOULD LEND TO A MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EVENING DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN COMPARED TO THE MORE CONSTANT FRONTAL ZONE
CONVECTION THAT COULD PRESENT A FLOOD/HEAVY RAIN RISK IN THE
ECMWF/CANADIAN SOLUTION. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE BUILDING
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD HELP PUSH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD. ALOFT...THE CUTOFF LOW/ELONGATED TROUGH SHOULD BE
ABSORBED INTO THE NEXT LARGE SCALE TROUGH WHICH WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS AND 70S DURING THE
OVERNIGHTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA UNDERNEATH SOME PASSING SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS. OVERALL VFR
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A POSSIBLE BRIEF VIS OR CIG RESTRICTION ASSOCIATED
WITH A PASSING SHOWER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A QUICK SHOWER OR STORM
WILL BE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE
STORM ACTIVITY THEN MIGRATING INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND STALL
OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL THEN DECAY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY WESTERLY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOME MORE
VARIABLE IN NATURE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
HEADLINE CRITERIA...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. STORMS MAY
BECOME NUMEROUS IN NATURE FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND
STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA LATER TODAY. THIS FRONT WILL THEN
DISSIPATE BY THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WESTERLY
FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL KEEP ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE TO PREVENT CRITICAL LEVELS OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY FROM
BEING REACHED. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME QUITE
NUMEROUS IN NATURE ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE A WETTING RAIN SHOULD BE EXPECTED AND
PLANNED FOR.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 79 88 77 / 20 50 70 50
FMY 91 77 90 76 / 20 30 60 40
GIF 92 76 90 75 / 50 30 80 50
SRQ 89 78 88 76 / 20 50 70 60
BKV 90 74 89 73 / 30 60 70 50
SPG 89 79 88 78 / 20 50 70 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...GARCIA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
625 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYED
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA PLUS A MOISTURE
INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT EARLY INCREASING
TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION
HAS ENDED. SOME MVFR CIGS AT AGS...AND LIFR CIGS AT OGB EARLY THIS
MORNING...CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 14Z...GENERALLY VFR ELSEWHERE. AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA BY 15Z...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
AVIATION ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
343 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE MIDWEST TODAY WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
AND INTO THE DELMARVA REGION THURSDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE
NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
MAINLY EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL BE STALLED NEAR THE EAST PART OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE MAY
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT THE CHANCE APPEARS LOW. THE MODELS
INDICATE JUST WEAK CONVERGENCE. THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY
AIR HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. THE GFS AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MID-LEVEL CAPPING. THE HRRR AND SPC WRF DISPLAYED
JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. THE TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE WAS CLOSE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING EASTWARD TOWARD THE DELMARVA REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO DIRECT DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WE KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY. THE TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE WAS CONSISTENT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE NATION. THE REMNANTS OF THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LINGER NEAR THE FORECAST AREA PLUS A MOISTURE
INCREASE SHOULD OCCUR WITH TIME ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOS HAVE POPS 10 TO 20 PERCENT EARLY INCREASING
TO 30 TO 50 PERCENT LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE MOS HAS TEMPERATURES
NEAR CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR THE FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL
MENTION SHRA IN TEMPO GROUPS WHERE NECESSARY. SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
BEHIND THE FRONT. MODELS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MVFR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE INDICATED MVFR FOG AT AGS/OGB 08Z-12Z.A DRIER
AIR MASS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY WITH NO
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS TO
AVIATION ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
834 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 828 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE CURRENT STORM COMPLEX IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA IS
CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH AND APPROACHING OUR FORECAST
ZONES. RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE PLENTY OF DCAPE AND
MUCAPE IN THE PROFILE...AND WRF MODEL RUNS HAVE THE STORM CONTINUE
TO THE SOUTH FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. UPDATED THE POPS
AND QPF EXPECTED FOR THE STORM FOR THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
SATELLITE SHOWING THAT A COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES TO OUR NORTHWEST
AND NORTH THAT ARE EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH TONIGHT. MODELS
LOOKED FINE AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SREF STARTED OUT A LITTLE
BETTER THAN THE REST OF THE OUTPUT FOR THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN
THE REST OF THE OUTPUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TONIGHT...AT THIS TIME...A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM
NEAR CHEYENNE WELLS TO NEAR GOODLAND INTO CENTRAL DUNDY COUNTY.
LITTLE TO NO CAP IS NOW ALONG/NEAR THAT BOUNDARY. FIRST SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/DECENT PV ANOMALY IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
CUMULUS HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY IN OR NEAR SOUTHERN CHEYENNE COUNTY
COLORADO.
A SECOND SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A WEAK LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE UPPER
JET WILL AFFECT THE EAST/NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA FROM LATE
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
MODELS DISAGREEING ON WHERE TO START THE CONVECTION AND WHERE TO
HAVE THE MOST WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CLUSTERING OF THE GUIDANCE
WOULD SUPPORT WHERE THE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY GOING ON. OVERALL
THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF WILL SEE THE CONVECTION STARTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT CONVECTION MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH OR
WEAKENS. THEN A SECOND CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF
OUR AREA PER THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND GIVES THE NORTHEAST
THE BETTER CHANCE DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT. SO WILL START
WITH THE HIGHER CHANCE INTO IN THE SOUTH AND THEN TRANSITIONS TO
THE NORTHEAST.
STORM MOTION IS NEAR 15 KNOTS. HOWEVER...IF STORMS START SLOWING
DOWN...THEY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL DUE
TO PWS NEAR 1.5 INCHES. NOT A LOT OF SPEED SHEAR BUT THE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD. ALSO DCAPE IS RATHER HIGH. SO A FEW SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS FOLLOWED BY HAIL AS THE
MAIN THREATS.
FRIDAY...SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE TO NEAR 700 MB.
HOWEVER A STOUT EML AND TOASTY 500 MB TEMPERATURES LOOK TO CAP OR
SLOW DOWN CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP IT DRY FOR
NOW. PER THE CLUSTER OF 2 METER GUIDANCE AND BETTER PERFORMING
GUIDANCE...WILL TEND TO GO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW THE WARMER
GUIDANCE. LIKE THIS DUE TO A MORE UNFAVORABLE WIND FIELD FOR
WARMING THE MAXES UP.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...A SIMILAR PATTERN TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED THESE PAST FEW WEEKS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THEREFORE...
STORM CHANCES CONTINUE EACH DAY FOR THE MOST PART. THERE ARE A
COUPLE DAYS TO FOCUS ON FOR ENHANCED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
BEGINNING WITH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...BENIGN WEATHER
IS FORECAST DUE TO THE LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALOFT AND
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE...CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
THAT LAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SOUTH WINDS SATURDAY
INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF AN INCOMING LEE
TROUGH. NO CONCERNS WITH FIRE WEATHER ARE ANTICIPATED DUE TO FUEL
GREENNESS FROM RECENT RAINFALL AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE
30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.
ON SUNDAY...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINES WITH AN ENCROACHING
COLD FRONT TO BRING A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS. IN ADDITION...
POOLING MOISTURE BEHIND THE FRONT ENHANCES THE ENVIRONMENT...PRIMING
IT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SBCAPE NEAR 2500 J/KG...
850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...BACKED NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS
AND PWATS INCREASING TO 1.60" ALL FAVOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...MARGINAL 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 30 KTS
DON`T INCREASE CONFIDENCE IN A FORECAST FOR SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. MUCH HIGHER SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH.
AFTER A BRIEF CALM IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
ANOTHER...MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT OVER THE PLAINS BY MID-WEEK. FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INDICATE A VAST AMOUNT OF MODEL SPREAD WHICH HINDERS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE ON WHEN THIS SYSTEM EJECTS. AS DISTURBANCE
EJECTS OVER THE PLAINS...AN SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK MAY BE POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON MOISTURE PARAMETERS...LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF THIS
TROUGH AND DRYLINE/FRONTAL LOCATIONS. THE NEGATIVELY TILTED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DOES DRAW THE EYE GIVEN THIS IS STILL THE WARM
SEASON.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 529 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE TAF PERIOD FOR BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AT THIS POINT...THERE IS
NOT MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP TO AFFECT KGLD OR
KMCK IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THEREFORE...PLACED A VCTS MENTION FOR
THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A
COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO AFFECT THE
KMCK TERMINAL LATER TONIGHT...BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE STORMS WILL
STAY TOGETHER AND MOVE THROUGH. WILL ASSESS HOW STORMS ARE STAYING
TOGETHER IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS TO DETERMINE IF AN UPDATE IS
NEEDED.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
539 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
...Updated for Aviation...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
Temperatures for later this afternoon were necessarily trimmed again
by the HRRR due to widespread cloudiness, rain and cooled air near
the moist upslope convergence zone region between roughly highway 183
and 83. Although the areal coverage has been dramatically reduced
this afternoon, isolated showers could occur easily still occur
through tonight. The convective allowing models as a whole are far
less supportive of additional shower and thunderstorms development
heading into Thursday, perhaps partially owing to less of a
convergence zone with as surface winds turn southerly. With a lack
of widespread precipitation and/or cloudiness, the opportunity for
much warmer raw model forecast temperatures reaching into the 90s
is likely, which will be the case over the next several days.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
The best chances for precipitation will be a very slight chance for
most of the area, with a best chance in west central Kansas around
Sunday night, when models forecast shortwave energy across the
northern high plains. It is possible the entire area remains dry
during this time. A better opportunity arrives by mid week ,and
could last several days as a baroclinic zone impacts the region
with a breakdown of the upper ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Thursday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
Light upslope winds will continue tonight, then become more
southerly by mid morning with VFR conditions expected into
Thursday. Some models hint at some convection after 05Z however
confidence is too low to put into forecast attm.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 89 67 91 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 64 90 66 91 / 10 0 10 10
EHA 65 92 66 91 / 0 0 10 10
LBL 66 92 67 92 / 10 0 10 10
HYS 65 90 67 92 / 10 10 20 10
P28 66 90 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Kruse
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
251 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
Temperatures for later this afternoon were necessarily trimmed again
by the HRRR due to widespread cloudiness, rain and cooled air near
the moist upslope convergence zone region between roughly highway 183
and 83. Although the areal coverage has been dramatically reduced
this afternoon, isolated showers could occur easily still occur
through tonight. The convective allowing models as a whole are far
less supportive of additional shower and thunderstorms development
heading into Thursday, perhaps partially owing to less of a
convergence zone with as surface winds turn southerly. With a lack
of widespread precipitation and/or cloudiness, the opportunity for
much warmer raw model forecast temperatures reaching into the 90s
is likely, which will be the case over the next several days.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday NIGHT THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
The best chances for precipitation will be a very slight chance for
most of the area, with a best chance in west central Kansas around
Sunday night, when models forecast shortwave energy across the
northern high plains. It is possible the entire area remains dry
during this time. A better opportunity arrives by mid week ,and
could last several days as a baroclinic zone impacts the region
with a breakdown of the upper ridge.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Thursday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
Surface low pressure over Missouri was leading to southeasterly
surface winds across the area. Decaying convection has left a few
scattered showers remaining near the DDC terminal, however the
activity will continue on the downtrend. For the remainder of the
TAF period, the ceilings are forecast to increase in height with
winds decoupling around sunset.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 91 67 92 / 20 10 10 10
GCK 64 91 66 92 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 65 93 66 92 / 10 10 10 10
LBL 66 92 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
HYS 65 91 67 93 / 20 10 20 20
P28 66 90 69 92 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Russell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1216 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
...Updated Synopsis and aviation discussion...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
At 00z Wednesday a 700mb and 500mb high was located near southwest
Oklahoma. An upper level ridge axis extended north northwest of
the upper low to eastern Montana. An upper level trough was
located over south central Colorado. A 850mb and 700mb moisture
axis appears to be located from the panhandle of Texas to
northeast Colorado. This was also located near a +9 to +12c 700mb
temperature gradient. At 00z Wednesday a surface highs was located
over southeast Nebraska and a trough of low pressure was located
along the lee of the Rockies. An axis of upper 60s to near 70
degree surface dew points were located from the panhandle of Texas
to west central Kansas.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
The near term will bring chances for heavy rain producing
thunderstorms. The first opportunity will be later tonight as the 4
km NAM, HRRR and NMM models all redevelop convection later in the
day over eastern colorado that moves in to about the western two or
perhaps 3 tiers of KS counties. the key here to support convection
is the very high precipitable water values, and hence conditional
instability present. still no severe weather threat, with mainly
efficient warm rain processes and frequent lightning. easterly
surface wind, and an increasing surface pressure gradient is
expected wednesday with a transient 500 mb shortwave, in the western
counties, in proximity to the high precipitable water axis on the
west edge of the surface high. models again generate precipitation
into wednesday in this zone. extensive cloud cover may again muddle
the high temperature forecast, as occurred today and temperatures
should be at or below normal.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday NIGHT THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 401 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
The upper ridge over the central and southern rockies will continue
to amplify, resulting in vorticity disturbances shifted farther
north across the northern plains. however, the GFS and ECMWF show a
vigorous wave during the weekend moving through the northern
states, effectively flattening the upper ridge and returning zonal
flow aloft to the central high plains. this setup will result in
low pressure across western kansas just ahead of an approaching
baroclinic zone/frontal boundary by early to mid week, and a
return to convective chances. the more zonal pattern may stay in
place for at least several days.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Wednesday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
A southeasterly wind will continue overnight at less than 10
knots as a surface trough of low pressure remains nearly
stationary along the lee of the Rockies.The southeasterly winds
will increase by late morning into the 10 to 15 knot range.
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight into early
Wednesday morning given the increasing moisture and lift in the
800mb to 600mb level. Areas more favorable for this convection
will be DDC and GCK. Ceilings are expected to primarily be above
3500 AGL based on 00z NAM BUFR soundings, however ceilings may
fall into the MVFR category at times with the thunderstorms early
this morning.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 65 90 67 93 / 10 0 10 10
GCK 65 91 67 92 / 10 0 10 0
EHA 66 92 67 92 / 10 10 10 0
LBL 68 92 68 93 / 10 0 10 0
HYS 65 91 68 92 / 10 10 20 10
P28 67 89 69 91 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Burgert
SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1157 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST LESS THAN 10
KNOTS TONIGHT AND 10-15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS ON FRIDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE TO MBS AND FNT...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT MUCH FURTHER
SOUTH. ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL ARRIVE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING WITH PASSAGE OF DECENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL TIME
THIS THROUGH TERMINALS WITH TEMPO GROUPS FROM 22Z-23Z NORTH TO 01Z-
03Z OR SO SOUTH.
FOR DTW...CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT INTO FRIDAY...BUT
CHANCES OF SCT-BKN STRATO-CU/CU WILL INCREASE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
WITH A FEW SHRAS AND/OR TSRAS AROUND FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER 00Z-01Z
FRIDAY EVENING.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FRIDAY EVENING.
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 306 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM WESTERLIES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE NOTED ON 1830Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE. THE FIRST IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN WESTERN EDGE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR; THE SECOND OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. INITIAL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRANSIT THE CWA AROUND 03-06Z AND WILL OUTPACE THE SLOWLY
EVOLVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT, EXPECT SUFFICIENT FORCING TO PRODUCE A JUST A PARTIAL
COVERAGE WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT NOTHING OF NOTE DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GRIDS WITH A
BLANKET 30 POP THROUGH 2AM.
STEEPER LAPSE RATE RATE ENVIRONMENT ORIGINATING OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL THEN STRING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ONGOING SWLY FLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THIS WAVE. WARM 900-800MB LAYER WILL CONTAIN MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS FEATURING 700 TO 1000 J/KG LOW DENSITY CAPE. THOUGHTS
REGARDING NOCTURNAL COOLING OF UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND ONGOING
DIFFERENTIAL WAA REMAIN FROM PREV DISCUSSION REMAIN IN PLAY AND
OFFER ADDED CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. QPF IN MOST GUIDANCE IS UNINSPIRING, LIKELY
OWING TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT, BUT INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY AIR FAIRLY EASILY. COVERAGE CONCERNS
PRECLUDE A HIGHER POP MENTION, BUT 08-12Z PERIOD APPEARS WORTH AT
LEAST ANOTHER BLANKET CHC POP...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS SW AREAS
WHERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE RAP IS MODELED TO BE
STRONGEST. TENDENCY FOR ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIMITS PROSPECTS FOR ANYTHING TO REACH DETROIT
METRO BEFORE SUNRISE.
MIXED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WAA THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION
OF THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DROPPING BELOW 20 KNOTS...THUS SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...AND WILL NEED TO RELAY ON HIGH
INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY NEVER MATERIALIZE...AS NAM CONTINUES TO
OVERPLAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH MID 70 SURFACE DEW PTS
FORECASTED. MORE REALISTIC DEW PTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
(BASED ON 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 C WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S)...0-1
KM CAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PULSE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES (SETTING RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY)...EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE FOLDING OVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER
AIR/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SPILL OVER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
TEENS ON SATURDAY...AND APPROACHING 20 C ON SUNDAY...WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING TO NEAR 580 DAM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
AROUND ON SATURDAY AND AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE) BEFORE WARM
MID LEVEL AIR/RIDGE AXIS/CAP WORKS INTO THE AREA. WEAK WIND
FIELDS/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO GARDEN VARIETY TYPE
STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP.
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR A
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVE TO CREATE
MUGGY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WHILE ANY EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL
HINDER SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE BETTER TRACKING/TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.
MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR STREAMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER LOW LEVEL STABILITY...TRANSLATING TO WEAK WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/PS
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE/MARINE/AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR I-96. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
WARM TO HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES POPS 30/40 PCT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRATIFIED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AFTER
06Z. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY AS THE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH
TIME. OVERALL...STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
AS THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE HRRR IS NOT
BULLISH AT ALL WITH FUTURE CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE FEEDS IN...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OVERALL...I`M NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND WON`T PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...600 J/K SBCAPE IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH. PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. LATEST HRRR DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING A BIT FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO NEAR I-96. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK
LOW TOO WITH ONLY 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE ZERO DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM GUIDANCE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE REACHING
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
ESSENTIALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT SMALL...20-40 PCT. AT THIS POINT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING CARRIED VCTS WORDING IN THE TAFS
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000FT WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO AROUND 3500FT. ON FRIDAY EXPECTING WINDS
OFF THE LAKE TO POTENTIALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT A BIT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
MATCHED UP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WAVES AROUND 4 FEET TOWARDS LUDINGTON BUILD SOUTH
WITH TIME. SO...THE BHS AND SCA ARE CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 500 AM.
WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WE WILL DECIDE IF WE CAN DROP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES OR EXTEND THEM INTO THE MORNING.
A CORE OF WIND WILL WORK DOWN THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT WITH A WIND
MAX AROUND 2000FT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE KMKG BUFKIT OVERVIEWS
ARRIVING THERE AROUND 06Z. IT REACHES SOUTH HAVEN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY NEED TO CARRY THE
HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT IT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
4-5 ZONES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ037-043-050-
056-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUKE
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
705 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY SOUTHWEST 8-10 KNOTS TONIGHT AND
10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS FRIDAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY IN
THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR TSTORMS LATE TO
MBS AND FNT...BUT MOST LIKELY NOT ANY FURTHER SOUTH. WILL MAINTAIN
PROB30 GROUP FOR SHRAS FOR THIS FORECAST.
FOR DTW...EPISODES OF FEW-SCT CLOUDS AOB 5KFT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF BKN CIGS AOB 5FKT AT TIMES
ON FRIDAY.
//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AOB 5KFT FRIDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 306 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT
A COUPLE OF LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES EMANATING FROM WESTERLIES OVER
CENTRAL CANADA ARE NOTED ON 1830Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PROPAGATING
SOUTHEAST AROUND THE NE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANSIVE WEST-CENTRAL
CONUS RIDGE. THE FIRST IS NOTED ALONG THE NORTHERN WESTERN EDGE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR; THE SECOND OVER LAKE WINNIPEG. INITIAL WAVE IS
PROGGED TO TRANSIT THE CWA AROUND 03-06Z AND WILL OUTPACE THE SLOWLY
EVOLVING THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. COUPLED WITH WEAK WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT, EXPECT SUFFICIENT FORCING TO PRODUCE A JUST A PARTIAL
COVERAGE WEAK CONVECTIVE SHOWERS BUT NOTHING OF NOTE DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. THIS IS HIGHLIGHTED IN THE GRIDS WITH A
BLANKET 30 POP THROUGH 2AM.
STEEPER LAPSE RATE RATE ENVIRONMENT ORIGINATING OVER THE MS VALLEY
WILL THEN STRING INTO THE AREA WITHIN ONGOING SWLY FLOW ON THE HEELS
OF THIS WAVE. WARM 900-800MB LAYER WILL CONTAIN MOST UNSTABLE
PARCELS FEATURING 700 TO 1000 J/KG LOW DENSITY CAPE. THOUGHTS
REGARDING NOCTURNAL COOLING OF UPPER ATMOSPHERE AND ONGOING
DIFFERENTIAL WAA REMAIN FROM PREV DISCUSSION REMAIN IN PLAY AND
OFFER ADDED CONFIDENCE IN SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT UPON THE ARRIVAL OF THE SECOND WAVE LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. QPF IN MOST GUIDANCE IS UNINSPIRING, LIKELY
OWING TO DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5KFT, BUT INTENSITY OF ANY CONVECTION
SHOULD OVERCOME THE DRY AIR FAIRLY EASILY. COVERAGE CONCERNS
PRECLUDE A HIGHER POP MENTION, BUT 08-12Z PERIOD APPEARS WORTH AT
LEAST ANOTHER BLANKET CHC POP...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS SW AREAS
WHERE THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY GRADIENT IN THE RAP IS MODELED TO BE
STRONGEST. TENDENCY FOR ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE
INSTABILITY GRADIENT LIMITS PROSPECTS FOR ANYTHING TO REACH DETROIT
METRO BEFORE SUNRISE.
MIXED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND LIGHT WAA THROUGH THE LOWER PORTION
OF THE COLUMN WILL SUPPORT LOWS AROUND 70 DEGREES TONIGHT.
LONG TERM...
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH TO TRACK INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
DURING FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SLIDES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT. LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS DROP OFF THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR DROPPING BELOW 20 KNOTS...THUS SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED...AND WILL NEED TO RELAY ON HIGH
INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY NEVER MATERIALIZE...AS NAM CONTINUES TO
OVERPLAY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WITH MID 70 SURFACE DEW PTS
FORECASTED. MORE REALISTIC DEW PTS IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE
RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
(BASED ON 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 C WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S)...0-1
KM CAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG...WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A PULSE
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM...BUT WEAKENING LOW LEVEL JET/LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL COVERAGE.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES (SETTING RECORD HIGHS
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA YESTERDAY)...EXTENDING NORTH INTO SOUTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WILL BE FOLDING OVER...ALLOWING FOR SOME WARMER
AIR/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO SPILL OVER INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN OVER THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY
REACHING 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY...AS 850 MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER
TEENS ON SATURDAY...AND APPROACHING 20 C ON SUNDAY...WITH 1000-500
MB THICKNESSES CLIMBING TO NEAR 580 DAM. REMNANT LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
AROUND ON SATURDAY AND AMPLE INSTABILITY COULD PROVE SUFFICIENT TO
GENERATE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE) BEFORE WARM
MID LEVEL AIR/RIDGE AXIS/CAP WORKS INTO THE AREA. WEAK WIND
FIELDS/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD TRANSLATE TO GARDEN VARIETY TYPE
STORMS IF THEY DO IN FACT DEVELOP.
AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR A
PRECIPITATION SYSTEM THAT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
MICHIGAN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT. A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT WILL PROVE TO CREATE
MUGGY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY. WHILE ANY EARLY PRECIPITATION WILL
HINDER SIGNIFICANT HEATING DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON...HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. AFTER MONDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MUDDLED. THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE CWA TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY UNTIL WE CAN RESOLVE BETTER TRACKING/TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION.
MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN PLACE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES
AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...TRIGGERING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE AND WARM AIR STREAMING IN FOR THE WEEKEND WILL LEAD TO
HIGHER LOW LEVEL STABILITY...TRANSLATING TO WEAK WINDS AND LOW
WAVES.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION.....DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF/PS
MARINE.......SF
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
200 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
DIURNAL CU OS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE PRETTY MUCH
FOLLOWING THE EXPECTED CURVE FOR THE DAY. MID CLOUDS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME GETTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE DRY AIR ALOFT AS
EVIDENCED BY THE CLOUDS IN W UPPER AND C UPPER. MAIN CONCERN FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE THE VORT MAX THAT IS IN SE MANITOBA, SO NO CHANGES
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN MIXING OUT AND
PUSHING WHAT STRATOCU WE HAVE HAD LEFT OVER, FROM THE OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM, THE RETURN FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
BEGINNING TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS IT MOVED OUT OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR, IT HAS DIED, AND LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUD COVER IS
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT HAS IT MOVES TO THE SSE. SO THE AFTERNOON, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL GET GOING BETTER BY EVENING AS THE RETURN FLOW AND A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDER ACTIVITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS TO NW WI. JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE HIGH...PATCHY STRATOCU REMAINS FRUSTRATINGLY STUBBORN OVER A
PORTION OF NORTHERN MI...THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
WITH TIME. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THRU
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE ON
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE HIGH...JUST NORTH OF MN. WE WILL ENTER THAT
REGION VERY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET...BUT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...ONGOING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE THIS MORNING...THANKS TO
HEATING/MIXING...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR NOW OVER WI AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME BUBBLY ALTOCU...THE WARM-ADVECTION CLOUD COVER
NOW NORTH OF MN. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE
WARM FRONT LATE TODAY...REACHING A CMX-GRB LINE. THIS RESULTS IN
THE NAM ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REACH NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NNW FLOW ALOFT...UPSTREAM RADAR/CLOUD
TRENDS...AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...THIS
LOOKS TOO FAST. SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE RAP IS PREFERRED...KEEPING
THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI AND -SHRA IN EASTERN WI/WESTERN UPPER
MI. SOME ACCAS WILL EXPAND IN NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THRU 8 PM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD A MUNISING-HTL LINE BY
DAWN. AN AREA OF SHRA EAST OF THE FRONT...STARTING THE EVENING OVER
NE WI/NORTHERN LAKE MI/CENTRAL UPPER WILL MOVE SE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS MI. THIS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING (WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
SOUTH OF M-72). NAM LOVES IT/S LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOES
BONKERS WITH MUCAPE. BUT EVEN A MORE REALISTIC MOISTURE PORTRAYAL
GIVES US HIGH THREE-FIGURES OF CAPE...SO WILL ADD THUNDER. WILL
STILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW...PROVIDING A LULL. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO GET GOING BACK BEHIND THAT RIDGE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ENVIRONS. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA BY MORNING.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY IN NW LOWER...WHERE A WARMER/
STICKIER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STILL MONITORING THUNDERSTORM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE RATHER MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...CONSISTING OF WESTERN/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WORK WEEK. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN SQUARELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LATTER...WITH REINFORCING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT
FRONTAL FEATURES BRINGING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXCELLENT INTER/INTRA MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGING
FOLDING OVER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETAILS: A CHALLENGING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY AS SOUTHWARD
RETREAT OF WHAT WAS ONCE OVERHEAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT ACTIVE...WITH LITTLE DEEP LAYER
SUPPORT. INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND PASSING OF SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE MAY ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FIRE...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN SOUTHEAST DROPPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO ENTER THE PICTURE. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT
MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. PER THE
USUAL...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY FURTHER HINDER THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT SPEED TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DICTATED BY ANY SHOWER AND STORM PRODUCED OUTFLOWS. STILL LIKE THE
IDEA OF KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE
NOT EXTREME...PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AND
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN SET TO TAKE SHAPE TO START THE WEEKEND. STRONG
ENERGY PUNCHING INTO THE CANADA WEST COAST AND EASTWARD PUNT OF
CURRENT WEST COAST CUTOFF LOW HELP SET THESE CHANGES IN
MOTION...WORKING IN TANDEM TO FORCE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO FOLD OVER INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. PATTERN SET TO BECOME
TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
EXTENT OF RIDGING IS SHUNTED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
BY SUNDAY. NEXT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER (AT LEAST POTENTIALLY)
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKED OVER BY APPROACHING WAVES AND HINTS OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. OF COURSE...PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO ALL CHANGE...SO
INHERITED CHANCY POPS MORE THAN FINE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
DIURNAL CU HAS FORMED AROUND N MICHIGAN AND WITH THE DRIER AIR
OVER THE REGION THAN YESTERDAY, WE MAINLY HAVE VFR CIGS IF THERE
ARE ANY CIGS AT ALL. THE MAIN WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS THE
THUNDERSTORMS COMING OUT OF SE MANITOBA THAT WILL ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT, INTO UPPER MICHIGAN AROUND 12Z. THE INITIAL IDEA WILL
BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TIP OF THE MIT AND INTO
NE LOWER DURING THE MORNING. WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO AMEND FOR THIS
PRIOR TO THE NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH WEAKER/LESS GUSTY THAN
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MI
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN LAKE MI.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEEN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...THOUGH AGAIN THESE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JSL
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
1002 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST IS MOVING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES, TO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS HAS BEEN MIXING OUT AND
PUSHING WHAT STRATOCU WE HAVE HAD LEFT OVER, FROM THE OVERNIGHT.
UPSTREAM, THE RETURN FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE HIGH IS
BEGINNING TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THUNDER BAY, ONTARIO THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, AS IT MOVED OUT OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR, IT HAS DIED, AND LOOKS LIKE THE CLOUD COVER IS
BEGINNING TO MIX OUT HAS IT MOVES TO THE SSE. SO THE AFTERNOON, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD REMAIN DRY, BUT WILL EXPECT THAT THE RAIN
WILL GET GOING BETTER BY EVENING AS THE RETURN FLOW AND A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL HELP TO KICK OFF SOME THUNDER ACTIVITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS TO NW WI. JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE HIGH...PATCHY STRATOCU REMAINS FRUSTRATINGLY STUBBORN OVER A
PORTION OF NORTHERN MI...THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
WITH TIME. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THRU
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE ON
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE HIGH...JUST NORTH OF MN. WE WILL ENTER THAT
REGION VERY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET...BUT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...ONGOING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE THIS MORNING...THANKS TO
HEATING/MIXING...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR NOW OVER WI AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME BUBBLY ALTOCU...THE WARM-ADVECTION CLOUD COVER
NOW NORTH OF MN. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE
WARM FRONT LATE TODAY...REACHING A CMX-GRB LINE. THIS RESULTS IN
THE NAM ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REACH NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NNW FLOW ALOFT...UPSTREAM RADAR/CLOUD
TRENDS...AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...THIS
LOOKS TOO FAST. SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE RAP IS PREFERRED...KEEPING
THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI AND -SHRA IN EASTERN WI/WESTERN UPPER
MI. SOME ACCAS WILL EXPAND IN NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THRU 8 PM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD A MUNISING-HTL LINE BY
DAWN. AN AREA OF SHRA EAST OF THE FRONT...STARTING THE EVENING OVER
NE WI/NORTHERN LAKE MI/CENTRAL UPPER WILL MOVE SE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS MI. THIS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING (WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
SOUTH OF M-72). NAM LOVES IT/S LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOES
BONKERS WITH MUCAPE. BUT EVEN A MORE REALISTIC MOISTURE PORTRAYAL
GIVES US HIGH THREE-FIGURES OF CAPE...SO WILL ADD THUNDER. WILL
STILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW...PROVIDING A LULL. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO GET GOING BACK BEHIND THAT RIDGE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ENVIRONS. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA BY MORNING.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY IN NW LOWER...WHERE A WARMER/
STICKIER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STILL MONITORING THUNDERSTORM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE RATHER MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...CONSISTING OF WESTERN/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WORK WEEK. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN SQUARELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LATTER...WITH REINFORCING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT
FRONTAL FEATURES BRINGING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXCELLENT INTER/INTRA MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGING
FOLDING OVER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETAILS: A CHALLENGING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY AS SOUTHWARD
RETREAT OF WHAT WAS ONCE OVERHEAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT ACTIVE...WITH LITTLE DEEP LAYER
SUPPORT. INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND PASSING OF SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE MAY ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FIRE...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN SOUTHEAST DROPPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO ENTER THE PICTURE. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT
MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. PER THE
USUAL...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY FURTHER HINDER THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT SPEED TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DICTATED BY ANY SHOWER AND STORM PRODUCED OUTFLOWS. STILL LIKE THE
IDEA OF KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE
NOT EXTREME...PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AND
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN SET TO TAKE SHAPE TO START THE WEEKEND. STRONG
ENERGY PUNCHING INTO THE CANADA WEST COAST AND EASTWARD PUNT OF
CURRENT WEST COAST CUTOFF LOW HELP SET THESE CHANGES IN
MOTION...WORKING IN TANDEM TO FORCE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO FOLD OVER INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. PATTERN SET TO BECOME
TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
EXTENT OF RIDGING IS SHUNTED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
BY SUNDAY. NEXT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER (AT LEAST POTENTIALLY)
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKED OVER BY APPROACHING WAVES AND HINTS OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. OF COURSE...PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO ALL CHANGE...SO
INHERITED CHANCY POPS MORE THAN FINE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR.
LEFTOVER STRATOCU OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER CONTINUES TO
SHRIVEL...AND IS PRESENTLY A VFR DECK REGARDLESS. A WARM FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO WI TODAY...AND LOWER MI TONIGHT.
SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL EXPAND INTO NW LOWER
MI WEDNESDAY EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TVC/MBL. GENERALLY
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR.
A BIT OF A NW BREEZE TODAY...NOT AS GUSTY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH WEAKER/LESS GUSTY THAN
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MI
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN LAKE MI.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEEN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...THOUGH AGAIN THESE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JSL
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
642 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS TO NW WI. JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE HIGH...PATCHY STRATOCU REMAINS FRUSTRATINGLY STUBBORN OVER A
PORTION OF NORTHERN MI...THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
WITH TIME. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THRU
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE ON
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE HIGH...JUST NORTH OF MN. WE WILL ENTER THAT
REGION VERY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET...BUT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...ONGOING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE THIS MORNING...THANKS TO
HEATING/MIXING...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR NOW OVER WI AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME BUBBLY ALTOCU...THE WARM-ADVECTION CLOUD COVER
NOW NORTH OF MN. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE
WARM FRONT LATE TODAY...REACHING A CMX-GRB LINE. THIS RESULTS IN
THE NAM ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REACH NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NNW FLOW ALOFT...UPSTREAM RADAR/CLOUD
TRENDS...AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...THIS
LOOKS TOO FAST. SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE RAP IS PREFERRED...KEEPING
THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI AND -SHRA IN EASTERN WI/WESTERN UPPER
MI. SOME ACCAS WILL EXPAND IN NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THRU 8 PM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD A MUNISING-HTL LINE BY
DAWN. AN AREA OF SHRA EAST OF THE FRONT...STARTING THE EVENING OVER
NE WI/NORTHERN LAKE MI/CENTRAL UPPER WILL MOVE SE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS MI. THIS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING (WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
SOUTH OF M-72). NAM LOVES IT/S LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOES
BONKERS WITH MUCAPE. BUT EVEN A MORE REALISTIC MOISTURE PORTRAYAL
GIVES US HIGH THREE-FIGURES OF CAPE...SO WILL ADD THUNDER. WILL
STILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW...PROVIDING A LULL. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO GET GOING BACK BEHIND THAT RIDGE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ENVIRONS. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA BY MORNING.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY IN NW LOWER...WHERE A WARMER/
STICKIER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STILL MONITORING THUNDERSTORM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE RATHER MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...CONSISTING OF WESTERN/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WORK WEEK. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN SQUARELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LATTER...WITH REINFORCING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT
FRONTAL FEATURES BRINGING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXCELLENT INTER/INTRA MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGING
FOLDING OVER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETAILS: A CHALLENGING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY AS SOUTHWARD
RETREAT OF WHAT WAS ONCE OVERHEAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT ACTIVE...WITH LITTLE DEEP LAYER
SUPPORT. INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND PASSING OF SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE MAY ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FIRE...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN SOUTHEAST DROPPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO ENTER THE PICTURE. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT
MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. PER THE
USUAL...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY FURTHER HINDER THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT SPEED TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DICTATED BY ANY SHOWER AND STORM PRODUCED OUTFLOWS. STILL LIKE THE
IDEA OF KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE
NOT EXTREME...PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AND
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN SET TO TAKE SHAPE TO START THE WEEKEND. STRONG
ENERGY PUNCHING INTO THE CANADA WEST COAST AND EASTWARD PUNT OF
CURRENT WEST COAST CUTOFF LOW HELP SET THESE CHANGES IN
MOTION...WORKING IN TANDEM TO FORCE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO FOLD OVER INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. PATTERN SET TO BECOME
TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
EXTENT OF RIDGING IS SHUNTED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
BY SUNDAY. NEXT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER (AT LEAST POTENTIALLY)
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKED OVER BY APPROACHING WAVES AND HINTS OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. OF COURSE...PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO ALL CHANGE...SO
INHERITED CHANCY POPS MORE THAN FINE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR.
LEFTOVER STRATOCU OVER FAR NORTHERN LOWER CONTINUES TO
SHRIVEL...AND IS PRESENTLY A VFR DECK REGARDLESS. A WARM FRONT
WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO WI TODAY...AND LOWER MI TONIGHT.
SHRA/PERHAPS TSRA AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL EXPAND INTO NW LOWER
MI WEDNESDAY EVENING...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING TVC/MBL. GENERALLY
EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR.
A BIT OF A NW BREEZE TODAY...NOT AS GUSTY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH WEAKER/LESS GUSTY THAN
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MI
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN LAKE MI.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEEN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...THOUGH AGAIN THESE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GAYLORD MI
307 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.NEAR TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL...A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS TO NW WI. JUST IN ADVANCE OF
THE HIGH...PATCHY STRATOCU REMAINS FRUSTRATINGLY STUBBORN OVER A
PORTION OF NORTHERN MI...THOUGH THE LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY ERODING
WITH TIME. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT SE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY THRU
TONIGHT. SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ZONE ON
THE NORTH FLANK OF THE HIGH...JUST NORTH OF MN. WE WILL ENTER THAT
REGION VERY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ADVANCING
INTO NORTHERN MI LATE TONIGHT. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE QUIET...BUT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE INCREASING AS WE MOVE INTO TONIGHT.
TODAY...ONGOING CLOUD COVER WILL ERODE THIS MORNING...THANKS TO
HEATING/MIXING...AND THE ARRIVAL OF A NARROW AXIS OF SOMEWHAT DRIER
AIR NOW OVER WI AND CENTRAL UPPER MI. THAT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
THE ARRIVAL OF SOME BUBBLY ALTOCU...THE WARM-ADVECTION CLOUD COVER
NOW NORTH OF MN. THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER EAST WITH THE
WARM FRONT LATE TODAY...REACHING A CMX-GRB LINE. THIS RESULTS IN
THE NAM ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REACH NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE NNW FLOW ALOFT...UPSTREAM RADAR/CLOUD
TRENDS...AND THE BULK OF THE OTHER SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...THIS
LOOKS TOO FAST. SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE RAP IS PREFERRED...KEEPING
THE WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL WI AND -SHRA IN EASTERN WI/WESTERN UPPER
MI. SOME ACCAS WILL EXPAND IN NW LOWER MI LATE IN THE DAY...BUT
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THRU 8 PM.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.
TONIGHT...WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD A MUNISING-HTL LINE BY
DAWN. AN AREA OF SHRA EAST OF THE FRONT...STARTING THE EVENING OVER
NE WI/NORTHERN LAKE MI/CENTRAL UPPER WILL MOVE SE...ASSOCIATED WITH
A WEAK BUT FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS MI. THIS WILL POSE A
RISK FOR PRECIP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...
MAINLY DURING THE EVENING (WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT
SOUTH OF M-72). NAM LOVES IT/S LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND GOES
BONKERS WITH MUCAPE. BUT EVEN A MORE REALISTIC MOISTURE PORTRAYAL
GIVES US HIGH THREE-FIGURES OF CAPE...SO WILL ADD THUNDER. WILL
STILL JUST KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY. A BIT OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW...PROVIDING A LULL. ANOTHER
BATCH OF PRECIP MAY TRY TO GET GOING BACK BEHIND THAT RIDGE OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND ENVIRONS. ANY SUCH ACTIVITY LOOKS
UNLIKELY TO REACH THIS FORECAST AREA BY MORNING.
MIN TEMPS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY IN NW LOWER...WHERE A WARMER/
STICKIER AIRMASS WORKS IN BEHIND THE WARM FRONT. LOWS WILL BE
IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: STILL MONITORING THUNDERSTORM AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TO END THE WORK WEEK.
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/ANTICIPATED EVOLUTION: ONE RATHER MERIDIONAL FLOW
REGIME ACROSS THE CONUS...CONSISTING OF WESTERN/HIGH PLAINS RIDGE
AND EASTERN TROUGH...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THIS WORK WEEK. NORTHERN MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN SQUARELY UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE LATTER...WITH REINFORCING WAVES AND THEIR ATTENDANT
FRONTAL FEATURES BRINGING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. EXCELLENT INTER/INTRA MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A
RATHER SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN SHIFT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THE
START OF NEXT WEEK...WITH NORTHERN EXTENT OF UPSTREAM RIDGING
FOLDING OVER AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN LAKES...EVENTUALLY SETTING UP A
MUCH MORE ZONAL FLAVOR TO THE FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS.
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES: EVOLUTION OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
DETAILS: A CHALLENGING FORECAST SETTING UP FOR THURSDAY AS SOUTHWARD
RETREAT OF WHAT WAS ONCE OVERHEAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES...ALLOWING A WEAK WARM FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA.
FRONT ITSELF DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT ACTIVE...WITH LITTLE DEEP LAYER
SUPPORT. INCREASINGLY WARM/HUMID AIRMASS AND PASSING OF SUBTLE MID
LEVEL WAVE MAY ALLOW A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
FIRE...ALTHOUGH STILL BELIEVE BETTER ACTIVITY WILL WAIT UNTIL THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN SOUTHEAST DROPPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT BEGINS
TO ENTER THE PICTURE. WHILE OVERNIGHT TIMING SHOULD HELP TO PREVENT
MUCH OF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF UP TO 30 KNOTS
DOES SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ONLY MAKE SLOW PROGRESS SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY AS PARENT LOW PRESSURE IS WELL REMOVED TO THE NORTH. PER THE
USUAL...DAYTIME HEATING WILL ONLY FURTHER HINDER THE FRONTAL
ADVANCEMENT...ALTHOUGH SUSPECT SPEED TO BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY
DICTATED BY ANY SHOWER AND STORM PRODUCED OUTFLOWS. STILL LIKE THE
IDEA OF KEEPING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE BRIDGE...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF M-32. WHILE
NOT EXTREME...PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF AND
POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS DEFINITELY
SUPPORTS SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
POTENTIAL IN OUR LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCTS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SOME RATHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN SET TO TAKE SHAPE TO START THE WEEKEND. STRONG
ENERGY PUNCHING INTO THE CANADA WEST COAST AND EASTWARD PUNT OF
CURRENT WEST COAST CUTOFF LOW HELP SET THESE CHANGES IN
MOTION...WORKING IN TANDEM TO FORCE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO FOLD OVER INTO THE NORTHERN LAKES. PATTERN SET TO BECOME
TEMPORARILY MORE ZONAL INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK AS NORTHERN
EXTENT OF RIDGING IS SHUNTED OFF THE EAST COAST. THE WEEKEND
CONTINUES TO LOOK DRY AND RATHER WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES AT LEAST
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY
A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL WARMER LOCALES MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
BY SUNDAY. NEXT STRETCH OF ACTIVE WEATHER (AT LEAST POTENTIALLY)
ARRIVES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS
WORKED OVER BY APPROACHING WAVES AND HINTS OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT. OF COURSE...PLENTY OF TIME FOR THIS TO ALL CHANGE...SO
INHERITED CHANCY POPS MORE THAN FINE FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
SOME MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR.
LOW CIGS CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN LOWER MI...THOUGH THESE
ARE SLOWLY ERODING. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES BUT MBL
OVERNIGHT. THE SUN COMING UP WILL FINISH OFF THESE CLOUDS ONCE AND
FOR ALL SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE EAST INTO WI TODAY. -SHRA AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT WILL EXPAND INTO NW LOWER MI WEDNESDAY EVENING...POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING TVC/MBL. GENERALLY EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO REMAIN VFR.
A BIT OF A NW BREEZE ON WEDNESDAY...NOT AS GUSTY AS TUESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...THOUGH WEAKER/LESS GUSTY THAN
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTHERN MI
TONIGHT...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS/STORMS TO NORTHERN LAKE MI.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SEEN ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...THOUGH AGAIN THESE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEEDED.
&&
.APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...JAZ
SHORT TERM...MSB
LONG TERM...MSB
AVIATION...JAZ
MARINE...JAZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
704 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
TONIGHT...A SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IN NW MANITOBA AND SOUTHERN
MANITOBA WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
MODELS ARE DRY...BUT A FEW...SUCH AS THE 12Z
NCEPWRF/GFS/SREF...CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES
INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME MINOR CHANGES.
OTHERWISE...THERE SHOULD BE CLEARING SKIES FROM THE NW LATER IN
THE NIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT. THE THREAT OF FOG SEEMS
LOW SINCE MOST OF THE MODELS WERE NOT SUGGESTING FOG BASED ON THE
SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. KEPT FOG OUT OF THE
FORECAST...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE ISOLATED LOCATIONS
WITH FOG...ESPECIALLY WHEREVER THERE WERE RECENT RAINS. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THIS WILL
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE WAS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES CALLING FOR MIDDLE
TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
QUIET CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE OVERHEAD THAT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
SATURDAY STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP FOR THE AREA. THE
AIRMASS IS ALREADY WARM...AND WE GET EVEN WARMER FOR SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90. IN FACT...WITH DEWPOINTS
EASING UP INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
BE PUSHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THIS AREA...THAT IS JUST HOT AND MISERABLE. IN
COMBINATION WITH LOWS ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
UPPER 50S-LOW 60S...WE WILL BE APPROACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING A ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN...BUT TIMING IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE STILL AND
WILL BE A BIG FACTOR AS THE LATER THE STORMS MOVE IN THE LESS RISK
WE HAVE. SOME SMALL POPS LINGER EVEN INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BUT THIS IS DUE TO THE FRONT STILL BEING IN THE VICINITY
AND AM NOT TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THESE. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS BY MONDAY IN
THE 70S.
MODELS ARE SHOWING LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MIDDLE AND LATTER
PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS
WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DUE TO SWING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS
WHICH SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
TO THE NORTHLAND. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT TO THE CONSENSUS WITH HIGHS
TUESDAY- THURSDAY IN THE 70S WITH CHANCE POPS BEGINNING TUESDAY
NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE ONE REALLY COOL AND WET DAY IN THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
BROUGHT IN MENTION OF VCTS TO KINL AND VCSH TO KBRD BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. EXPECTING ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...HOWEVER THERE STILL MAY BE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND KHIB BETWEEN 02Z AND 04Z BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL HRRR AND
HRRRX RUNS. EVEN WITH THIS PRECIPITATION AROUND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KHYR AND KBRD...WHERE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP. THIS WILL BRING MVFR VISBYS BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z. LOWER
VISBYS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES.
A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE. THIS COMBINED WITH DAY TIME
HEATING WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO KHYR. LEFT IN AS VCSH...DUE TO UNCERTAINTY ON HOW
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 65 87 64 89 / 20 0 0 0
INL 59 87 62 91 / 20 0 0 0
BRD 64 90 66 89 / 20 10 0 0
HYR 62 88 61 88 / 20 10 0 0
ASX 64 86 60 88 / 20 10 0 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1253 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR TODAY. THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING THE
TEMPERATURES WAS FOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THINK THE SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM AND GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR
WARMING TODAY...SO WANTED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER
GFSMOS/SREFBC/RAP13BC MODEL GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE TWIN PORTS SHORELINE...INCLUDING
PARK POINT...TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. INCREASED THE PARK
POINT FORECAST FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST OF ABOUT 81 TO NOW 87.
THE RAP13/NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
SUMMER HEAT RETURNS WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER
SO FAR TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORNING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND.
TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RESULTING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS MORNING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SW
ONTARIO AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TO OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND
CAUSE 850MB TEMPS TO SURGE 4-8 DEG CELSIUS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN DEW POINTS HEADING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS EXPECT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY
WITH STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. WHILE ONLY A
SUBTLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXISTS AT 500MB...A 80-100 KT 300MB JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL PROVIDE RESULT IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THUS PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE
LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE FASTER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN INTO THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY
ANOTHER ELEVATED TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER SUNRISE. USED
JUST SHOWERS WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING TO THE MID 50S
OR COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HOT AND SUNNY. BREEZY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES DUE TO DEEP MIXING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40-50KTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED....BUT IT SHOULD
BE NOTED 0-3KM HELICITY OF 300-400 M2/S2 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AROUND 00-04 UTC THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
ROTATING STORMS...BUT THE HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADIC RISK. STILL...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE THE NORMAL
HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND ROLL INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AGREE WITH INITIAL DAY ONE SPC
OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED FOR AN UPGRADE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...IT IS GOING TO BE A HOT ONE OUT
THERE. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTING ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK CAP MIGHT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD STORMS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE COULD SEE STORMS
SUSTAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
EXCEPT FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WE
LINGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN WENT DRY FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY UNDER
THE HIGH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSING EAST. IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM
AND DRY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS FASTER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH
THIS FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SEEN WITH 850MB WINDS 40-50KT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
CONVECTIVE TRENDS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE...WITH
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AS OF 1730Z...AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA IS MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE TERMINALS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A LESS UNSTABLE
AIRMASS...AND THEY MAY DECAY. IF THIS HAPPENS WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT
FOR MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA IN THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE IT CAN MOVE SOUTHEAST TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...IF THE STORMS MAINTAIN...WE COULD HAVE
CONVECTION INTO KINL AS EARLY AS 21Z. HAVE HAD TO DO SOME HEDGING
IN THE TERMINALS UNTIL TRENDS BECOME BETTER DEFINED...AND
ANTICIPATE UPDATES IN THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. OTHERWISE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KTS TO CONTINUE UNTIL A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS PASSES AND WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10
KTS BY 15Z THURSDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 87 65 90 65 / 0 30 20 30
INL 89 61 88 59 / 30 50 20 10
BRD 86 66 90 65 / 10 20 10 10
HYR 84 63 86 63 / 0 30 30 20
ASX 86 64 88 62 / 10 40 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
901 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 901 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AND WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS FOR TODAY. THE FOCUS FOR INCREASING THE
TEMPERATURES WAS FOR NEAR THE TWIN PORTS. THINK THE SUNNY
SKIES AND WARM AND GUSTY SW WINDS TODAY WILL BE A GOOD RECIPE FOR
WARMING TODAY...SO WANTED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER
GFSMOS/SREFBC/RAP13BC MODEL GUIDANCE. DOWNSLOPE WARMING SHOULD
ALSO ALLOW TEMPERATURES NEAR THE TWIN PORTS SHORELINE...INCLUDING
PARK POINT...TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 80S. INCREASED THE PARK
POINT FORECAST FROM THE EARLIER FORECAST OF ABOUT 81 TO NOW 87.
THE RAP13/NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 MPH OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
SUMMER HEAT RETURNS WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER
SO FAR TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORNING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND.
TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RESULTING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS MORNING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SW
ONTARIO AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TO OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND
CAUSE 850MB TEMPS TO SURGE 4-8 DEG CELSIUS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN DEW POINTS HEADING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS EXPECT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY
WITH STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. WHILE ONLY A
SUBTLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXISTS AT 500MB...A 80-100 KT 300MB JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL PROVIDE RESULT IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THUS PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE
LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE FASTER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN INTO THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY
ANOTHER ELEVATED TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER SUNRISE. USED
JUST SHOWERS WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING TO THE MID 50S
OR COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HOT AND SUNNY. BREEZY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES DUE TO DEEP MIXING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40-50KTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED....BUT IT SHOULD
BE NOTED 0-3KM HELICITY OF 300-400 M2/S2 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AROUND 00-04 UTC THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
ROTATING STORMS...BUT THE HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADIC RISK. STILL...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE THE NORMAL
HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND ROLL INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AGREE WITH INITIAL DAY ONE SPC
OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED FOR AN UPGRADE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...IT IS GOING TO BE A HOT ONE OUT
THERE. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTING ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK CAP MIGHT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD STORMS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE COULD SEE STORMS
SUSTAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
EXCEPT FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WE
LINGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN WENT DRY FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY UNDER
THE HIGH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSING EAST. IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM
AND DRY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS FASTER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH
THIS FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SEEN WITH 850MB WINDS 40-50KT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
MOST AREAS WERE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG. AN AREA OF WAA
HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT THOSE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA AND
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AS THEY CREST THE UPPER RIDGE. TIMING THIS
ACTIVITY IS A CHALLENGE AND WE RELIED ON AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
INCLUDING USING THE CAMS. WE INTRODUCE VCSH TO KINL AROUND 22Z AND
HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DUE TO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND CONTINUED WAA. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
AS WELL...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AND WITH GOOD MIXING...WE SHOULD
SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 87 65 90 65 / 10 30 20 30
INL 89 61 88 59 / 40 50 20 10
BRD 86 66 90 65 / 10 20 10 10
HYR 84 63 86 63 / 0 40 30 20
ASX 86 64 88 62 / 10 40 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
SUMMER HEAT RETURNS WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER
SO FAR TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORNING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND.
TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RESULTING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS MORNING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SW
ONTARIO AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TO OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND
CAUSE 850MB TEMPS TO SURGE 4-8 DEG CELSIUS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN DEW POINTS HEADING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS EXPECT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY
WITH STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. WHILE ONLY A
SUBTLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXISTS AT 500MB...A 80-100 KT 300MB JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL PROVIDE RESULT IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THUS PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE
LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE FASTER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN INTO THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY
ANOTHER ELEVATED TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER SUNRISE. USED
JUST SHOWERS WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING TO THE MID 50S
OR COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HOT AND SUNNY. BREEZY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES DUE TO DEEP MIXING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40-50KTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED....BUT IT SHOULD
BE NOTED 0-3KM HELICITY OF 300-400 M2/S2 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AROUND 00-04 UTC THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
ROTATING STORMS...BUT THE HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADIC RISK. STILL...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE THE NORMAL
HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND ROLL INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AGREE WITH INITIAL DAY ONE SPC
OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED FOR AN UPGRADE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...IT IS GOING TO BE A HOT ONE OUT
THERE. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTING ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK CAP MIGHT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD STORMS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE COULD SEE STORMS
SUSTAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
EXCEPT FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WE
LINGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN WENT DRY FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY UNDER
THE HIGH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSING EAST. IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM
AND DRY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS FASTER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH
THIS FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SEEN WITH 850MB WINDS 40-50KT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
MOST AREAS WERE UNDER VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME PATCHY FOG. AN AREA OF WAA
HAS CAUSED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT THOSE WILL BE SHIFTING EAST EARLY TODAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH MANITOBA AND
WILL TURN SOUTHEAST AS THEY CREST THE UPPER RIDGE. TIMING THIS
ACTIVITY IS A CHALLENGE AND WE RELIED ON AN ENSEMBLE APPROACH
INCLUDING USING THE CAMS. WE INTRODUCE VCSH TO KINL AROUND 22Z AND
HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THERE INTO THE EVENING. THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST TONIGHT DUE TO A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE AND CONTINUED WAA. INSTABILITY WILL BE INCREASING
AS WELL...SO SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.
TIMING OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE DAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TODAY AND WITH GOOD MIXING...WE SHOULD
SEE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 85 65 90 65 / 10 30 20 30
INL 88 61 88 59 / 40 50 20 10
BRD 86 66 90 65 / 10 20 10 10
HYR 82 63 86 63 / 0 40 30 20
ASX 84 64 88 62 / 10 40 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
340 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
SUMMER HEAT RETURNS WITH SOME OF THE WARMEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER
SO FAR TODAY AND TOMORROW. MORNING SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND.
TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
STRONG TO SEVERE. THURSDAY WILL BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED STORMS.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND A RESULTING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. THIS MORNING AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT IS MOVING
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND IT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS SW
ONTARIO AND ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...RESULTING IN SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE AREA YESTERDAY HAS MOVED SOUTH INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI TO OHIO
VALLEY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS AND
CAUSE 850MB TEMPS TO SURGE 4-8 DEG CELSIUS TODAY. THIS WILL ALSO
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN DEW POINTS HEADING INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S BY TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALL BE AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONT/TROUGH THAT IS EXPECT TO BE THE FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION
ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND FAR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA LATE TODAY
WITH STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT. WHILE ONLY A
SUBTLY MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXISTS AT 500MB...A 80-100 KT 300MB JET
STREAK ALOFT WILL PROVIDE RESULT IN DIVERGENCE ALOFT ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND THUS PROVIDE SOME LARGE-SCALE
LIFT...NOT TO MENTION THE FASTER WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BETTER
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STORMS TO SUSTAIN INTO THE NIGHT. ON THURSDAY
ANOTHER ELEVATED TROUGH/FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE
NORTHWEST...BUT CAP WILL LIKELY LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS.
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG WITH SHOWERS ACROSS THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD. RAP SEEMED TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE FOG DEVELOPMENT
WITH THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN...WITH FOG EXPECTED TO BURN OFF JUST AFTER SUNRISE. USED
JUST SHOWERS WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD GIVEN LACK OF
INSTABILITY EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT ADD IN ISOLATED THUNDER TOWARDS
MID-MORNING. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES AND TEMPS FALLING TO THE MID 50S
OR COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS.
THIS AFTERNOON...HOT AND SUNNY. BREEZY...SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
20-25 MPH AT TIMES DUE TO DEEP MIXING. HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD...INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S
ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS. INCREASING CLOUDS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. WITH MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 40-50KTS STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED....BUT IT SHOULD
BE NOTED 0-3KM HELICITY OF 300-400 M2/S2 ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AROUND 00-04 UTC THIS EVENING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
ROTATING STORMS...BUT THE HIGH LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD PRECLUDE A
TORNADIC RISK. STILL...SOMETHING TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE THE NORMAL
HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAINFALL THREATS WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND ROLL INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AGREE WITH INITIAL DAY ONE SPC
OUTLOOK WITH A MARGINAL RISK FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REEVALUATED FOR AN UPGRADE THIS AFTERNOON DEPENDING ON
HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
THURSDAY...SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIPITATION BUT NOT WHEN IT
COMES TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY...IT IS GOING TO BE A HOT ONE OUT
THERE. MOST GUIDANCE DEPICTING ANOTHER TROUGH/FRONT MOVING THROUGH
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS THINK CAP MIGHT BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD STORMS. IF STORMS DO
DEVELOP...EXPECT RAPID DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000
J/KG AND WITH 0-6KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE COULD SEE STORMS
SUSTAIN FOR A FEW HOURS. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
EXCEPT FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WE
LINGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THEN WENT DRY FOR MOST AREAS ON FRIDAY UNDER
THE HIGH. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PROGRESSING EAST. IT SHOULD BE VERY WARM
AND DRY SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE ARE
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF...WITH THE GFS FASTER.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY WITH
THIS FRONT. AT THIS POINT...THE INSTABILITY IS NOT REAL IMPRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A GOOD SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AS SEEN WITH 850MB WINDS 40-50KT AND GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WITH THE FRONT. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE MODELS DIVERGE MONDAY INTO MID WEEK WITH SOME FAIRLY LARGE
DIFFERENCES. AT THIS POINT WE HAVE LOW POPS THROUGH THAT PERIOD.
HIGHS MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER... DID INTRODUCE SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR OVERNIGHT FOG AS
HIB/AIT HAVE ALREADY SEEN VIS DECREASE TO 2SM. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LOW LEVELS BECOMING CLOSE TO SATURATED MAINLY AFTER 10Z
FOR DLH/HYR AS WELL. FOR THE REMAINING SITES... OCCASIONAL PATCHY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE... BUT SIGNAL FROM THE GUIDANCE WAS NOT AS
STRONG SO DECIDED AGAINST INCLUDING IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THERE WILL BE A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE... BUT WITH SPOTTY COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED... LEFT
VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS
CONFIDENCE INCREASES WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 85 65 90 65 / 10 30 20 30
INL 88 61 88 59 / 40 50 20 10
BRD 86 66 90 65 / 10 20 10 10
HYR 82 63 86 63 / 0 40 30 20
ASX 84 64 88 62 / 10 40 20 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
640 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS
(HRRR/RAP) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IN THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP.
HAVEN/T SEE STRONG CU DEVELOPMENT YET BUT DO BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR
AND THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN HAVE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THE HRRR DEPICTION IS A BIT
QUICK TIMING WISE AND OPTED TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A COUPLE HOURS.
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE...ALTHOUGH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCE A BIT BUT WANE THEM IN THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SOME HINTS OF SOME MORE LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION IN THE COLUMBUS AREA WITH MID LEVEL SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DRIFTING SOUTH. NOT TAKING THAT OFF THE TABLE YET AND HAVE KEPT LATE
NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST...AND LINGERED THEM INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE IN FULL FORCE BY AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL MID AUGUST DAY.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE SOUTH BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS TODAY...A DAY WE HAVE A FEW PLACES GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WITH HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING. EITHER WAY THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT TO THE WEST AND HAS A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF WOULD
INDICATE THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY FOR THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT THURSDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS HAVE TRIED NOT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A VCTS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR EITHER TERMINAL AFT 14/02Z. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...IN PART DUE TO THE TRACK OF THE CURRENT
ACTIVITY FORECAST TO HEAD PRIMARILY WEST OF THE TERMINALS...AS
WELL AS WITH UNCERTAIN STORM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD AND EAST OF THIS
LINE...FELT THE CONTINUED MENTION OF A VCTS WAS JUSTIFIED.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY NEAR 10 KTS...ALTHOUGH A
HIGHER GUST OR TWO IS POSSIBLE BOTH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FRIDAY.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
500 PM PDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NEVADA TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN NEVADA ON FRIDAY...AND
IN WHITE PINE COUNTY SATURDAY. HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TYPICAL
OF AUGUST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.UPDATE...A STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ADVANCE ACROSS
NEVADA TONIGHT. BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE,
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS LANDER, EUREKA
AND ELKO COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM. STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED. TURNER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 210 PM /
SYNOPSIS...GOOD MONSOON PUSH WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION FOR MOST
OF THE CWA BEFORE DRIER AIR ADVECTS EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW BEFORE THEY DECREASE
BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A 500MB LOW WITH A
70KT JET MAX NEAR THE NV/CA BORDER IS PULLING A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS MOST THE CWA. THIS HAS PUSHED THE NV
"DRY LINE" TO JUST EAST OF WMC. THE HIGHER SFC MOISTURE STILL
EXIST ACROSS EASTERN NV WHERE PW VALUES OF 1+ INCH AND 50+ DEW
POINTS ARE FAIRLY COMMON. WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL IN EASTERN
NV; HOWEVER...THIS MAY NOT BE THE CASE AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WARMING OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN NV...INDICATED BY THE LKN MORNING
SOUNDING. THINKING IS FIRST ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN FURTHER WEST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY WHERE THIS WARMING IS WEAKER AND CAN BE QUICKLY
OVERCOME. ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NV WILL OCCUR BUT MORE ON THE
ISOLATED SIDE. THE HRRR AND RAP13 AGREE WITH THIS THINKING SO
BUMPED POPS UP IN LANDER...EASTERN HUMDOLDT...WESTERN ELKO...AND
NW NYE COUNTIES. THE OTHER ISSUE IS WHETHER THESE WILL WET OR DRY.
ANY ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NV WILL BE WET...HOWEVER ONCE WEST OF AN
BATTLE MTN TO EUREKA LINE...THEY COULD BE DRY OR MOVING AT A FAIRLY
QUICK RATE TO LIMIT THE WETING POTENTIAL. OVERALL ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES TONIGHT WITH REDEVELOPMENT TOMORROW IN EASTERN ELKO AND
WHITE PINE COUNTIES AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES NE AND DRIVES THE DRY
LINE FURTHER EAST. ONCE AGAIN...SOME OF THIS CONVECTION COULD BE
DRY ON THE WESTERN EDGES. BY SATURDAY...DRY LINE IS PUSHED WELL
SOUTH AND EAST...WITH ONLY PORTION OF EASTERN WHITE PINE COUNTY
EXPECTED TO SEE CONVECTION.
THE OTHER ISSUE IS WINDS AS THIS UPPER LEVEL WITH ASSOCIATED JET
MAX LIFTS NORTHEAST. ALL THE CWA WILL EXPERIENCE WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HUMBODLT AND NW NYE COUNTIES THE WORST
(30-35KT GUSTS IN HIGHER TERRAIN). WINDS RELAX ON SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
AS FOR TEMPS...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS...EXPECT WARM CONDITIONS TODAY
(90S) AND FOR EASTERN HALF OF CWA TOMORROW. A SLIGHT DROP IN HIGH
TEMPS IS EXPECTED IN WESTERN AREAS DUE TO WIND DIRECTION CHANGE
AND SLIGHTLY LOWER 500MB HEIGHTS.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. WILL KEEP THIS
PERIOD DRY FOR NOW. THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ONLY
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...PORTRAYING A NEARLY STATIONARY BROAD RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. AFTERWARD...THE MODELS
ARE NEGOTIATING STRENGTH AND POSITION OF AN UPPER LOW PROGGED TO
DROP DOWN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION. IF THE GFS MODEL PANS
OUT...THERE COULD BE A SUBSTANTIAL COOLING AND A SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION AROUND MIDWEEK AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE LKN
CWFA. HOWEVER IF THE ECMWF MODEL RINGS TRUE...THE UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE FURTHER NORTH AND WITH LESS INTENSITY...THUS ONLY BRUSHING THE
SILVER STATE WITH AN INITIAL IMPULSE AS EARLY AS MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN SETTLING ON A GENERAL TROUGH SCENARIO AS THE WEEK
PROGRESSES. EITHER SOLUTION WILL AT LEAST BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW
90 DEGREES IN THE DAYTIME BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
POSSIBLY AFFECT ALL SITES TODAY...LESS LIKELY FOR KWMC AND KTPH. ON
FRIDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST TO ONLY
AFFECT KELY AND KEKO.
FIRE WEATHER...MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM IS DRY LIGHTNING IN
467...468...WESTERN PORTIONS OF 454 AND 457. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 15-20KT IN THESE AREAS SO WETTING RAIN
POTENTIAL IS PRETTY LOW. THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS WIND/RH IN
WESTERN HUMDOBLDT COUNTY. CRITERIA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HIT IN THIS
AREA BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY AND RH SHOULD DROP BELOW 15%
WITH POOR RECOVER OVERNIGHT. TOMORROW...DRY THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS
ARE OVER 469 AND EASTERN 454...WHILE HOLD POTENTIAL EXIST
(DEPENDING ON TODAY`S LIGHTNING COVERAGE) IN 468 AND EASTERN 467
WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS HOLD OVER THREAT CLOSELY THIS AFTERNOON. ACTIVITY IN
470 AND 455 WILL REMAIN WET WITH INCREASE COVERAGE TOMORROW.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
924 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DISSAPATE OVER MOHAVE COUNTY THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH ENOUGH BREAKS TO PREVENT NOTABLE INHIBITION OF
DAYTIME HEATING. MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AT LOWER AND MID LEVELS AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FROM FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY TO MOHAVE
COUNTY...AND AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN COUNTY TODAY. MORNING PWAT
VALUES ON THE VEF RAOB WERE OBSERVED AT 1.43 INCHES...WITH THE
CURRENT MESO-ANALYSIS SUPPORTING 1.25-1.5 VALUES ACROSS TODAYS AREA
OF CONCERN. SB CAPE VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE OER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...RANGING FROM 1000-1500 J/KG BY 19Z. THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
FORCING TODAY MEANS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE OVER AREAS OF
HIGHER TERRAIN INITIALLY BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS
850-300MB STEERING FLOW IS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT 10-15 KTS.
EXPECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES TO BECOME A FOCAL POINT FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST RUNS OF
LOCAL HI-RES MODELS...AS WELL AS THE HRRR SUPPORT THIS
ANALYSIS...WITH INITIATION PROGGED FOR 19Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 AM PDT WED AUG 12 2015/
.SYNOPSIS...THE PRIMARY AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL
BE IN MOHAVE...FAR EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO...CLARK...AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. A FEW STORMS MAY REACH AS FAR WEST AS NYE AND THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AS WELL. LINGERING MOISTURE COULD
LEAD TO A FEW STORMS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME WARMER AND DRIER. A HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES 5 OR MORE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SATELLITE SHOWS EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH RADAR SHOWING LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN PORTIONS OF MOHAVE AND NE CLARK COUNTIES. ONLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN MEASURED SO FAR THIS MORNING (UNDER
.10 INCHES). THE PRIME AREA OF CONCERN FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE MOHAVE, LINCOLN, CLARK AND FAR EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTIES WHERE MODELS FORECAST THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS MAY FORM A BIT FURTHER WEST ALONG
THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY IN EASTERN NYE AND CENTRAL SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES AS WELL. WITH THE OVERNIGHT FOCUSING MECHANISM LIFTING INTO
UTAH THIS MORNING AND NO DISCERNIBLE FEATURE TO AIDE IN LIFT DURING
THE DAY OTHER THAN DAYTIME HEATING, WILL FOREGO ISSUING A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH SINCE FLASH FLOODING COULD BE MORE LOCALIZED.
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA COUPLED WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO CHANNEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY FOR CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LOW
IS FORECAST TO FINALLY LIFT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY,
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FURTHER WEST. HOWEVER, THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE AND THE DOOR REMAINS OPEN FOR MOISTURE
IMPORT VIA ANY CURRENTLY UN-RESOLVED DISTURBANCE SUCH AS AN MSV OR
INVERTED TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE ARE CURRENTLY ONLY CALLING FOR
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED IF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA DOES NOT FLUSH OUT AND THE AREA
REMAINS MOIST AND WEAKLY UNSTABLE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY BUT THEN
WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FRIDAY BEGINS THE
BIG WARMUP INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH LINGERING MOISTURE MAY HOLD
HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW CURRENT FORECASTED HIGHS.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED BY PREVIOUS SHIFTS...THE BIGGEST CONCERN
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE HEAT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SPREAD IS
SHRINKING...WITH THE GFS MOS SHOWING 108/108 FOR KLAS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MOS SHOWS 110/112. OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN
BETWEEN AT 109/109...WHICH IS RIGHT UP AGAINST THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING CRITERION OF 110. AFTER SOME DISCUSSION...DECIDED TO DEFER
THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH TO THE DAY CREW. THERE
IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE BIG HOT RIDGE WILL
MOVE/REFORM TO THE SOUTHWEST...TURNING THE MID LEVEL FLOW TO
WESTERLY OR NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL SERVE TO SCOUR
OUT ANY LINGERING MOISTURE AND KNOCK HIGH TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF
DEGREES. SO IF THE MODEL TRENDS ARE CORRECT IT WILL NOT BE A
PROLONGED HEAT EVENT. BUT ANY SUCH EVENT WHICH PEAKS ON THE
WEEKEND ALWAYS CAUSES CONCERN. STAY TUNED. &&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...NORTH WINDS UP TO 8KTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AFTER 13Z THEN FAVOR A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE BETTER TODAY IN AND AROUND
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY SO THERE COULD BE MORE IMPACTS AT THE TERMINAL
THROUGH THE DAY IN THE FORM OF ERRATIC...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEFLY
LOWERED CIGS. OTHERWISE, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY A0A 10K FEET.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...SCT-BKN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN REGIONS OF THE AREA. STORMS COULD
BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO AIRPORT TERMINALS IN CLARK
COUNTY AND ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
$$
UPDATE...PULLIN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SALMEN
LONG TERM...MORGAN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
929 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW FROM UNION COUNTY STORMS HAS SPARKED SOME ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT INTO HARDING COUNTY...AND THERE IS ISOLD CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE SANGRES MOVG S-SEWD FROM COLORADO. RAP NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR BRINGING A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE ERN PLAINS...AND SNUGGLING IT UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40 LATER TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY STRETCHED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
CONVECTION WANING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS GOING IN CENTRAL CO TO
ROTATE TWD NM. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...558 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
STRONG STORMS OVER FAR NE NM WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.
A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD THROUGH ERN NM
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AS
IS MOVES SOUTH LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THIS FEATURE...AREAS OF LOW STRATUS
CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTNS. THE INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT
AFTERNOON -TSRAS OVER THE NE THIRD OF THE STATE FRIDAY WITH ISOLD
STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AREA. OVER THE
WEEKEND...GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM BACK INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE FURTHER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HELP NUDGE THAT MOISTURE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THUS...BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS...LOOK FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREAFTER...FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CHUSKA MTNS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM AS WELL WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY BROUGHT IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING. THE NE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH IS PARKED SQUARELY OVER NM TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCALES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE A FEW SITES MAY NEAR
RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER NM ON
FRIDAY... HOWEVER...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPARK SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE NE
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL BACK UP TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OR SO OF THE STATE. MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...THUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND PERHAPS MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL REMAIN FAVORED AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR STORMS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. OTHERWISE STORM MOTION ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM N TO S OR NE TO SW.
MODEL DIFFERENCE ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD ELONGATE SOMEWHAT OVER AZ/NM AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DIVES DOWN THE PAC NW COAST. HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION AND THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE DIVERGES FURTHER. THE EC SHOWS A WEAKLY CLOSED LOW/OPEN
TROUGH SLIDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE TUESDAY...
WHEREAS AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...AND THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
LOW...THOUGH ONCE THE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD...EXPECT A DRY
SLOT TO NUDGE INTO AT LEAST NW NM WHICH SHOULD FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND SPOTTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
AREAWIDE EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN MOISTURE THAT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND MIN RH VALUES. STORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY AREAS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. HAINES VALUES WILL BE IN THE 4 AND 5 READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART WITH NEAR RECORD NUMBERS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST.
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD...FURTHER MOISTURE
WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY
BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR. STEERING FLOW OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NE
TO SW. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND COOLER BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. 4 AND 5 HAINES VALUES WILL HOLD STEADY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY BUT TREND
DOWNWARD BY SUNDAY. FURTHER STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXPECTED EAST
AND CENTRAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
WEST OF NM BEFORE A DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.
POOR VENT RATES FRIDAY...FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ESTANCIA
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...IMPROVING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY...THEN EASTERN
AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1028 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS A FRONT LINGERS TO THE SOUTH. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL SET UP OVER THE WEEKEND. BERMUDA HIGH AND INLAND
TROUGHING RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM THURSDAY...UPDATED TO ADD 20/30 POPS FOR MAINLY
MARTIN/PITT COUNTIES THROUGH 1 AM WITH ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND
SKY COVER AS WELL. ANOTHER SHRT WV ROTATING THROUGH BASE OF UPR
TROF ALONG WITH LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN ISOLD/SCT
SHOWERS THAT HAVE PERSISTED OVER NRN COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING.
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE THESE SHOWERS MAY
AFFECT MAINLY MARTIN AND PITT COUNTIES AS THEY WEAKEN NEXT FEW
HOURS. ASSCTD CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP THERE AS WELL...THEN
SHOULD DROP INTO 60S WITH REST OF INLAND AREAS OVERNIGHT.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 156 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S BY SUNRISE.
ISOLATED AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP IN THE PREDAWN HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
AS OF 158 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA ON FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE IT SETS UP...WINDS WILL BE
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY. FRONTAL SYSTEM SITTING WELL OFFSHORE WILL
RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE WEST...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY WELL EAST
OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...THE UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MUCH OF THE EASTERN US REMAINING
IN A TROUGH/WEAKNESS IN THE WESTERLIES BETWEEN THE CONUS HEAT
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 850
MB TEMPS ARE PROGED TO RUN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THEREAFTER. WPC DAY 5 AND DAY 7
QPF FORECASTS ARE BELOW NORMAL WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEEKEND...LOOKING LIKE NICE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A
DECAYING STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OFF OF THE COAST AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THE MODELS
ARE FORECASTING DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL RISK OF PRECIPITATION INDICATED
MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES
SATURDAY FOR MAINLY COASTAL PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE A
STRAY POP UP THUNDERSTORM INLAND SUNDAY.
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...THE EASTERN US UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BECOME BETTER DEFINED ALLOWING A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PROGRESS
SOUTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT COULD DRIFT
SOUTH AND STALL OVER NC LATE NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST WPC FORECASTS KEEP
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE STATE. THE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
INLAND WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME DIURNALY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE PATTERN EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL RAISE POPS TO 20-30%
WHICH IS STILL BELOW CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM THURSDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLR SKIES WILL PERSIST THIS
EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. PERIOD OF MVFR FOG EXPECTED 09Z-12Z ALL
TAF SITES BUT MOST LIKELY PREVAILING AT KISO AND KPGV. VFR ALL
SITES DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT NE-E WINDS.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY EACH MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1000 PM FRIDAY...NO CHANGES WITH UPDATE.
/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/
AS OF 152 PM THU...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT ALLOWING NORTHEAST FLOW 10 TO 15 KNOTS
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED OFFSHORE
YESTERDAY WILL RETROGRADE BACK TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. EXPECT IT TO STAY EAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY FOR CONTINUED NORTHEASTERLY FLOW 10 TO 15
KNOTS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM THURSDAY...NE FLOW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT WILL
BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD SATURDAY IN THE FLOW
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE. THE FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE EAST
AND DIMINISH 5 TO 10 KT SUNDAY. EARLY NEXT WEEK HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE WILL BECOME REESTABLISHED WITH VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING
SOUTHERLY LATE AROUND 10 KT MONDAY AND CONTINUING TUESDAY. SLIGHT
SEAS OF 2 TO 3 FT ARE FORECAST SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. &&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG/JME
NEAR TERM...CCG/JBM
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...JME/CQD
AVIATION...JME/JBM
MARINE...JME/JBM/CQD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
301 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH FRIDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIFT TOWARDS THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY FEW SHOWERS HAVE TRIED TO MATERIALIZE
TODAY. A FEW HOURS AGO THIS OCCURRED IN FAR EASTERN BRUNSWICK
COUNTY AND NOW THEY ARE TRYING TO PERCOLATE NEAR SOUTHPORT. THE
END RESULT APPEARS TO BE THE SAME BOTH TIMES...NON- MEASURABLE
SPRINKLES THAT THEN SUCCUMB TO THE IMPRESSIVELY DRY AIR THAT
CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO THE AREA. DESPITE THIS I HAVE LEFT THE
20-ISH POPS ALONG THE COAST SINCE THE HIGHER REFRESH MODELS LIKE
THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO LIKE THE IDEA OF SEA BREEZE
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CU FIELDS
SEEM TO INCREASE IN VIGOR ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE FRONT. A
FACET OF THE FORECAST THAT IS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INTEREST
TONIGHT IS CLOUD COVER SINCE THE PERSEID METEOR SHOWER PEAKS.
VIEWING FOR THE METEORS WILL NOT BE TERRIBLE BY ANY MEANS BUT A
PARTLY CLOUDY SKY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE OVERNIGHT MEANS THEY
SIMPLY WON`T BE IDEAL. THIS MAY HOLD TRUE MORE EARLIER RATHER THAN
LATER DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE. AT LEAST THE
MOON WILL BE COOPERATIVE...ITS PHASE WILL BE A MERE SLIVER THAT
WON`T EVEN RISE TIL AFTER 4 AM. SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS INLAND
COULD MEAN CLEARER SKIES OVER FAR INLAND ZONES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY WILL BEGIN WITH A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS ALIGNED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS AND THE SWATH OF
DEEPEST MOISTURE OFFSHORE. THE CENTER OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL
SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ALLOWING WINDS TO
VEER FROM NORTH-NORTHEAST TO EAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODEL
TIME-HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS DO SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERING BELOW
700 MB TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THURSDAY...HOWEVER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL.
THINK THE CHANCE IS TOO SMALL TO WARRANT INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A FLORENCE TO BURGAW
LINE SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP THERE. THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INVERTED TROUGH OFFSHORE TO SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND WARRANTS THE INCLUSION OF LOW POPS ACROSS
THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...H5 PATTERN INDICATES A WEAK TROUGH ACROSS
THE SE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFF THE SE
COAST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL HAVE A FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
FORM AND MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY OFF THE COAST THIS WEEKEND.
GFS/ECMWF KEEP A CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS THE CWA AT TIMES SO WILL
INTRODUCE CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH SOME MID LEVEL FORCING
AND THE INTERACTION WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SOME ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. AS THE NEXT WEEK
BEGINS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROUGH ACROSS THE SE WHICH BRINGS
A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS WITH A GREATER
LIKELIHOOD OR POPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND MOVING TOWARDS THE
CAROLINAS. WILL INTRODUCE A BETTER CHANCE OF POPS FOR WED.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NE...EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE POSSIBLE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING THESE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF KMYR.
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED SKIES THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER SUNRISE VFR EXPECTED WITH NE-E WINDS
BECOMING E-ESE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...VERY LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT FOR MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LATE IN THE
PERIOD WHILST SPEEDS REMAIN SIMILARLY LIGHT THERE COULD BE A BACKING
OF THE FLOW AS THE BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH AND A WEAK PUSH OF
HIGH PRESSURE COMES IN FROM OUR NORTH. SEAS ALREADY JUST 2-2.5
FT...LIKELY SETTLING SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATTER VALUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON THURSDAY AND PUSH OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OFF THE GA
COAST THURSDAY IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARDS THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE RESULT WILL BE NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
EASTERLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BACKING TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE THURSDAY...BUT MAY DRIFT WESTWARD INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY BE OUT OF
THE NE WITH A SHIFT TO THE ESE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND BECOME
MORE S TO SW DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. EXPECT 10 KTS OR
LESS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH SEAS RUNNING 1-3 FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CRM
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...MAC
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
122 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TYPICAL WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOST EFFECTIVELY AND
EFFICIENTLY TELLS THE STORM TODAY. DRY AIR NOW COVERING THE ENTIRE
REGION...DRIER IN FACT THAT SEEN IN A WHILE. THE SURFACE REMAINS
RATHER MOIST HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70
AND HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT TO OUR WEST IS A BIT HARD TO
PICK OUT AND THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUC AND HRRR THAT
PRECIP IS ISOLATED AND GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NOT
ONLY IS THERE THE MOST MOISTURE BUT ALSO THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY REAL FORCING OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL AS THESE FEATURE`S ALWAYS SEEM A
LITTLE OVERDONE BY GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAKLY FORCED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...AN ELONGATED WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ANY
ORGANIZED RAINFALL WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEING THE MAIN CATALYST.
EVEN THE PIEDMONT TROUGH APPEARS MUTED. THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THAT MAY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST RESIDE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SPOT ON CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS NEAR THE COASTAL
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG A DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE
...THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BE NE...EXCEPT BECOMING SE AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AS THE SEA BREEZE SHIFTS INLAND. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...BUT WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING THESE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. THE GREATEST COVERAGE
SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF KMYR.
OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SCATTERED SKIES THERE IS A CHANCE OF
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT. AFTER SUNRISE VFR EXPECTED WITH NE-E WINDS
BECOMING E-ESE BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT STILL
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STILL SLATED TO STALL VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP WIND AND SEAS MINIMAL WITH SOME
VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST ESPECIALLY
AS IT MAY BE PRONE TO MESOSCALE/SEABREEZE FLUCTUATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. SPEEDS MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OFFSHORE
INCREASES THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAK
THUS THE WIND FORECAST DOESN`T HAVE ANYTHING MUCH OVER TEN KNOTS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENEROUSLY BE 1-3 FEET AND MOSTLY 1-2
FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1016 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY DEVELOP LATER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TYPICAL WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOST EFFECTIVELY AND
EFFICIENTLY TELLS THE STORM TODAY. DRY AIR NOW COVERING THE ENTIRE
REGION...DRIER IN FACT THAT SEEN IN A WHILE. THE SURFACE REMAINS
RATHER MOIST HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS STILL WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 70
AND HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT TO OUR WEST IS A BIT HARD TO
PICK OUT AND THERE IS FAIR AGREEMENT BETWEEN RUC AND HRRR THAT
PRECIP IS ISOLATED AND GENERALLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE NOT
ONLY IS THERE THE MOST MOISTURE BUT ALSO THE SEA BREEZE WILL PROVIDE
THE ONLY REAL FORCING OF THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT BY SATURDAY
MORNING. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS AND BASICALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
WELL. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFFSHORE AS THE HIGH
WEAKENS. WILL KEEP POPS MINIMAL AS THESE FEATURE`S ALWAYS SEEM A
LITTLE OVERDONE BY GUIDANCE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY PLEASANT
ALTHOUGH A LITTLE WARMER...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THAN PREVIOUS
GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...A WEAKLY FORCED MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL EXIST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...AN ELONGATED WEAK TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE. NO REAL FORCING MECHANISMS FOR ANY
ORGANIZED RAINFALL WITH THE SEA BREEZE BEING THE MAIN CATALYST.
EVEN THE PIEDMONT TROUGH APPEARS MUTED. THERE IS A HINT OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS TUESDAY THAT MAY ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES
AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE FORECAST RESIDE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SPOT ON CLIMATOLOGY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...WINDS ARE NW IN THE LOW LEVELS PER LATEST KLTX VAD WIND
PROFILE. DESPITE SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS AND SUB VFR VSBYS IN THE
AREA AT THE CURRENT TIME THIS WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THUS THERE IS MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE VFR
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS MORNING. WINDS WILL BE
NW-N GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE NE.
THIS AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BECOME SE AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP JUST INLAND OF THE COASTAL TERMINALS ALONG A
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PINNED NEAR THE COAST. WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT AND
ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL FORCING SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE HOWEVER SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KMYR WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY WILL INTERACT WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN WELL S OF KMYR/KFLO.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.
&&
.MARINE... NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1015 AM WEDNESDAY...POORLY DEFINED COLD FRONT STILL
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND STILL SLATED TO STALL VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE. THIS WILL KEEP WIND AND SEAS MINIMAL WITH SOME
VARIABILITY/UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST ESPECIALLY
AS IT MAY BE PRONE TO MESOSCALE/SEABREEZE FLUCTUATIONS.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...A RELATIVELY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE APPALACHIANS. SPEEDS MAY PICK UP
SLIGHTLY TO JUST OVER TEN KNOTS OR SO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OFFSHORE
INCREASES THE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY. SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FEET.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE FOR THE
MARINE COMMUNITY FOR THE WEEKEND. THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL BE WEAK
THUS THE WIND FORECAST DOESN`T HAVE ANYTHING MUCH OVER TEN KNOTS.
THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY. SEAS WILL GENEROUSLY BE 1-3 FEET AND MOSTLY 1-2
FEET.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...REK/SHK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
645 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND
SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE DEW POINT AT KINT AND KTDF HAVING
DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WAS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS A
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE VIRGINIAS...ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL SURFACE
INSTABILITY...AROUND 100J/KG ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS...WAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS...MOVING
FROM WAKE INTO JOHNSTON COUNTY...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MENTION OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 700MB AIR IS DRY UPSTREAM ON 00Z
UPPER-AIR ANALYSES...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION. THE NAM IS CERTAINLY MORE UNSTABLE AND SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT IT ALSO DIGS THE SHORTWAVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY ON WATER VAPOR SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE GFS. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS AND THE RAP ARE DRY
AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING...SAVE FAR SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WITH HEATING AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHOULD DRY LAST. IN
THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SOUTH OF
CLINTON AND GOLDSBORO...OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO BE DRY
WITH HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPING. MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW WIND
GUSTS FROM THE NORTH IN THE TEENS MPH BY MID-MORNING OR SO BEFORE
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST CLOSE TO
THOSE IMPLIED BY THE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAV MOS GUIDANCE...MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
TONIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME OF THE SHALLOW...
HIGH-BASED CU COULD EXPAND SOME IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
NORTHEAST. THE NAM EMPHASIZES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...BUT THE GFS
OVERALL IS MUCH LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR THAT AND SREF PROBABILITIES FAIL
TO REGISTER. POSSIBLY SOME GROUND FOG IN ISOLATED PATCHES LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ITS 850MB
THETA-E VALUES DO INCREASE...WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN K INDICES
AND 850MB UVV ON THE GFS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS FORECASTS A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH AS ITS FORECAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER TO BUILD SOUTH. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...AND 0-
3KM SHEAR IS WEAK AS WELL WITH LIGHT 925MB WINDS. CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING MODELS REMAIN DRY...AND WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL FORCING
EXPECTED...LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...AND POOR INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WITH A CAPPED SET OF BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LOW-
LEVEL MLCAPE BARELY TO 100J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. IF
ANY SHOWER WOULD FORM IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. GIVEN THE HIGHER
850MB THETA-E VALUES EXPECT MORE CU OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OVERALL...SHADING HIGHS ABOUT A DEGREE BELOW THOSE OF TODAY UNDER
BASICALLY PERSISTENCE FOR 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FAIR SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND THE MAJOR SYNOP SCALE WEATHER PLAYERS REMAINING EITHER
WELL TO OUR NORTH OR TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE NEAREST NOTABLE FEATURE
BEING THE REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
MOISTURE POOLING INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SEA BREEZE
SHOWER COULD AFFECT OUR FAR SE ZONE (SOUTHERN SAMPSON CO) SAT AND
SUN AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY RECOVERING
THROUGH THE WEEK...HIGHS FRI THRU SUN WILL APPROACH 90 IN MANY
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALTANTIC WILL
MOVE WWD TOWARD THE GOMEX...WHILE A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES
AMPLIFIES OVER THE TN VALLEY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE GOMEX...NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL
HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FOR NOW...
WILL KEEP POPS LOW ON MONDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 645 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MOSTLY MVFR LIGHT FOG
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A SMALL PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS
JUST NORTHWEST OF KIXA...WITH A LARGER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS IN
VICINITY OF KRWI. THESE SHOULD DIMINISH WITH MIXING THIS MORNING.
WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE
TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING...BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
THEN VEER BACK TO LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY BUILDS IN.
BEYOND THE 12Z VALID TAF PERIOD...NAM MET MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME
AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS FOCUSED ON FOG
EXCEPT AT KRWI THURSDAY MORNING...AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW
VISIBILITIES DO NOT REGISTER BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNINGS. GIVEN SOME VERY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AREAS OF COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...PATCHY GROUND FOG SEEMS A POSSIBILITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT SPECIFIC TAF SITES IS LOW. PLAN TO INDICATE A
PERIOD OF LOW MVFR FOG AT KRWI LATE TONIGHT WHERE CONFIDENCE IS A
LITTLE HIGHER COMPARED TO OTHER TERMINALS IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA...OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
306 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COAST AND
SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING OVER
THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...WITH THE DEW POINT AT KINT AND KTDF HAVING
DROPPED INTO THE MID 60S. ALTHOUGH VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WAS NOTED
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA AS A
MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVED FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TOWARD
THE VIRGINIAS...ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MINIMAL SURFACE
INSTABILITY...AROUND 100J/KG ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS...WAS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TO PROVIDE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS...MOVING
FROM WAKE INTO JOHNSTON COUNTY...WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED MENTION OF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER INTO THE EARLY MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH.
FOR THE AFTERNOON...THE MODERATE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. 700MB AIR IS DRY UPSTREAM ON 00Z
UPPER-AIR ANALYSES...AND GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION. THE NAM IS CERTAINLY MORE UNSTABLE AND SLOWER WITH THE
PROGRESS OF THE FRONT...BUT IT ALSO DIGS THE SHORTWAVE A LITTLE
FARTHER SOUTH AND ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY ON WATER VAPOR SEEMS TO
SUPPORT THE GFS. CONVECTIVE-ALLOWING MODELS AND THE RAP ARE DRY
AFTER EARLY THIS MORNING...SAVE FAR SOUTHERN SAMPSON COUNTY CLOSER
TO THE FRONT WITH HEATING AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHOULD DRY LAST. IN
THE GRIDDED FORECASTS WILL NOTE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER SOUTH OF
CLINTON AND GOLDSBORO...OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO BE DRY
WITH HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPING. MIXING SHOULD PROVIDE FOR A FEW WIND
GUSTS FROM THE NORTH IN THE TEENS MPH BY MID-MORNING OR SO BEFORE
925MB WINDS DIMINISH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FORECAST CLOSE TO
THOSE IMPLIED BY THE 1000-850MB THICKNESSES AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER
MAV MOS GUIDANCE...MID 80S TO AROUND 90.
TONIGHT...GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST SOME OF THE SHALLOW...
HIGH-BASED CU COULD EXPAND SOME IN THE VERY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY
NORTHEAST. THE NAM EMPHASIZES THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...BUT THE GFS
OVERALL IS MUCH LESS OPTIMISTIC FOR THAT AND SREF PROBABILITIES FAIL
TO REGISTER. POSSIBLY SOME GROUND FOG IN ISOLATED PATCHES LATE
TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM WEDNESDAY...
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE AGAIN STABLE TO DEEP CONVECTION. ITS 850MB
THETA-E VALUES DO INCREASE...WITH A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN K INDICES
AND 850MB UVV ON THE GFS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAIN AND
SANDHILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS FORECASTS A WEAK INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY AFTERNOON...
WHILE THE NAM IS MUCH SHARPER WITH THE TROUGH AS ITS FORECAST OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER TO BUILD SOUTH. WINDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...AND 0-
3KM SHEAR IS WEAK AS WELL WITH LIGHT 925MB WINDS. CONVECTIVE-
ALLOWING MODELS REMAIN DRY...AND WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL FORCING
EXPECTED...LIMITED UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT...AND POOR INSTABILITY
ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WITH A CAPPED SET OF BUFR SOUNDINGS AND LOW-
LEVEL MLCAPE BARELY TO 100J/KG...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST. IF
ANY SHOWER WOULD FORM IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. GIVEN THE HIGHER
850MB THETA-E VALUES EXPECT MORE CU OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
OVERALL...SHADING HIGHS ABOUT A DEGREE BELOW THOSE OF TODAY UNDER
BASICALLY PERSISTENCE FOR 1000-850MB THICKNESSES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 235 AM WEDNESDAY...
FAIR SEASONABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE LATE-WEEK AND WEEKEND
PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH EXTENDING ACROSS OUR
AREA...AND THE MAJOR SYNOP SCALE WEATHER PLAYERS REMAINING EITHER
WELL TO OUR NORTH OR TO OUR SOUTH...WITH THE NEAREST NOTABLE FEATURE
BEING THE REMNANT SFC BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST OFF THE EAST COAST.
MOISTURE POOLING INVOF OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE BACK TOWARD THE
COAST OVER THE WEEKEND...SO IT`S POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLD SEA BREEZE
SHOWER COULD AFFECT OUR FAR SE ZONE (SOUTHERN SAMPSON CO) SAT AND
SUN AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW THE RISK IS TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECAST. WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES GRADUALLY RECOVERING
THROUGH THE WEEK...HIGHS FRI THRU SUN WILL APPROACH 90 IN MANY
SPOTS...AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPR 60S...SO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS DURING THIS TIME.
EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ALTANTIC WILL
MOVE WWD TOWARD THE GOMEX...WHILE A SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES
AMPLIFIES OVER THE TN VALLEY AS IT APPROACHES THE CAROLINAS. AS THE
RIDGE MOVES TOWARD THE GOMEX...NORTHWARD MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL
MARKEDLY INCREASE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...AND THAT WILL
HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS OUR AREA ON
TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SO FOR NOW...
WILL KEEP POPS LOW ON MONDAY...ALBEIT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...THEN
RAIN CHANCES RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY BUT
COOLING SEVERAL DEGREES ON TUESDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF PATCHY MOSTLY MVFR LIGHT FOG
THIS MORNING...AND AN ISOLATED SHOWER AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT SLOWLY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS VEER TO NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A FEW GUSTS IN THE TEENS KNOTS WITH MIXING BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY MORE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN VEER BACK TO LIGHT NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS IN.
BEYOND THE 06Z VALID TAF PERIOD...NAM MET MOS GUIDANCE FAVORS SOME
AREAS OF FOG DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE GFS GUIDANCE IS MUCH LESS FOCUSED ON FOG
EXCEPT AT KRWI THURSDAY MORNING...AND SREF PROBABILITIES FOR LOW
VISIBILITIES HARDLY REGISTER BOTH EARLY THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNINGS. GIVEN SOME VERY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND AREAS OF COOLER LOW
TEMPERATURES...PATCHY GROUND FOG SEEMS A POSSIBILITY...BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THAT AT SPECIFIC TAF SITES IS LOW. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERALL THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1251 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
CANADIAN ELEVATED T-STORMS STILL ONGOING...BUT WEAKENING. MLCAPE
INCREASING...BUT CAP REMAINS STRONG. THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR LIKELY
INDICATES THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...DISSIPATING THE CURRENT CANADIAN
ACTIVITY...THEN RE-DEVELOPING STORMS CLOSER TO 00Z. THE
EXPERIMENTAL HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT INDICATING STRONG STORMS
ACROSS NW MN THIS EVENING (AND STRONG WIND GUSTS). EXPANDED THE T+
MENTION TO COVER MUCH OF THE SPC SLIGHT RISK AREA. 12Z NSSL-WRF
ALSO AGREES WITH THIS SOLUTION.
HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE
AROUND 100F FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON (ET LEADING TO DEW
POINTS UPPER 60S/LOW 70S). DURATION OF 100+F HEAT INDEX VALUES
NOT ENOUGH FOR A HEAT ADVISORY...BUT MAY ISSUE SOME SORT OF LESSER
STATEMENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORING THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA (LOCATED WITHIN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK) LIKELY WILL REMAIN ON
EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND/OR WEAKEN THIS MORNING. WILL OF
COURSE MONITOR AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S...SO
CAPPING LIKELY AN ISSUE TODAY. MOST CAM GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR AND RAP) INDICATING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
100F WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY 21Z. THIS HAS BEEN A BIG FLAW
OF THESE SYSTEMS...AND WILL FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID-90S (SUCH AS THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR). LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS CLOSER TO 00Z (ESPECIALLY NW MN...BUT COULD EXTEND INTO SE
ND DEPENDING ON LOCAL DEW POINTS). ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. MORE OR LESS
AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND SOME
LARGER HAIL) LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. SPC DID UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
HOT TEMPS AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY...WARMER 850 MB TEMPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...WITH AN
INCREASE OF ABOUT 3C OVER YESTERDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZY SW
WINDS AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. RECORD HIGHS TODAY AT KFAR/KGFK ARE 101/98F
RESPECTIVELY...AND 96F AT NWS FGF. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 90S IN SOME SPOTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS
LAKE BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AS
CIN ERODES NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SVR OVER FAR NE ND AND NW MN. GIVEN EXPECTED DEW POINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ABOVE 2500 OR 3000
J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH ~40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. THE VERY WARM...DEEP
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL (GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS). KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST AND
LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
A WEAK SFC FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE N PLAINS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...LARGELY MAINTAINED IDEA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME
LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH/WEST. THERMAL PROFILES REALLY DON/T
CHANGE MUCH...SO EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
90 IN MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD AS ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THANKS TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS...BUT STILL
HAS SOUTHERN WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SATURDAY
HOT...WITH PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
THE COOL AIR MASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY AND CLIPS THE AREA NEAR THE
SD BORDER WITH PRECIP. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SO WILL KEEP THE
LOW POPS THAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES US BUT THINK THE MAIN
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE NEXT STRONG
TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLOW WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND DRIER SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1251 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TURNING
SOUTHERLY THIS EVENING AND VARIABLE BY TOMORROW MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO WRN ND. ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE IN W CNTRL AND NW
MN...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT SPECIFIC SITES TO ADD
TS...WILL KEEP MENTION OF CB ONLY IN TAFS.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JR
AVIATION...SPEICHER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1011 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORING THE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. AREA OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA (LOCATED WITHIN
LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER JET STREAK) LIKELY WILL REMAIN ON
EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND/OR WEAKEN THIS MORNING. WILL OF
COURSE MONITOR AND ADJUST THE FORECAST IF NEEDED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S...SO
CAPPING LIKELY AN ISSUE TODAY. MOST CAM GUIDANCE (SUCH AS THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR AND RAP) INDICATING SFC TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE
100F WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION BY 21Z. THIS HAS BEEN A BIG FLAW
OF THESE SYSTEMS...AND WILL FOLLOW THE GUIDANCE THAT INDICATES SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID-90S (SUCH AS THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR). LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INITIATE AT LEAST A FEW
STORMS CLOSER TO 00Z (ESPECIALLY NW MN...BUT COULD EXTEND INTO SE
ND DEPENDING ON LOCAL DEW POINTS). ANY STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
BE SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT. MORE OR LESS
AN INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING SO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS (AND SOME
LARGER HAIL) LIKELY THE MAIN THREAT. SPC DID UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT
RISK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
HOT TEMPS AND LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES
TODAY...WARMER 850 MB TEMPS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA...WITH AN
INCREASE OF ABOUT 3C OVER YESTERDAY. WITH INCREASINGLY BREEZY SW
WINDS AHEAD OF A SFC TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD EASILY
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
MID 90S. RECORD HIGHS TODAY AT KFAR/KGFK ARE 101/98F
RESPECTIVELY...AND 96F AT NWS FGF. HEAT INDICES MAY REACH THE
UPPER 90S IN SOME SPOTS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE N RRV/DEVILS
LAKE BASIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. UPPER SUPPORT WILL BE LIMITED WITH
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING EAST OF THE AREA...BUT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE TODAY INTO THE EVENING AS
CIN ERODES NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SPC HAS MAINTAINED A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SVR OVER FAR NE ND AND NW MN. GIVEN EXPECTED DEW POINTS WELL
INTO THE 60S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ABOVE 2500 OR 3000
J/KG IS EXPECTED WITH ~40 KTS OF DEEP SHEAR. THE VERY WARM...DEEP
WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS
WITH HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL (GIVEN THE INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL
FOR SUPERCELLS). KEPT MAINLY SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS DUE TO THE
EXPECTED COVERAGE. STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTH AND EAST AND
LIKELY EXIT THE AREA BY LATE EVENING.
A WEAK SFC FLOW REGIME IS EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES AS TO THE PLACEMENT OF A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
RIDGE INTO THE N PLAINS. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY CONVECTIVE
CHANCES...LARGELY MAINTAINED IDEA FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH SOME
LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH/WEST. THERMAL PROFILES REALLY DON/T
CHANGE MUCH...SO EXPECT ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE
TO WATCH OUT FOR CLOUD COVER...WHICH COULD LIMIT TEMPS A BIT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY. ANOTHER HOT DAY IS IN STORE WITH HIGHS NEAR OR ABOVE
90 IN MOST AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE MILD AS WINDS BECOME
SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN BEGINS TO SHIFT AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD AS ALL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
RIDGE STARTING TO BREAK DOWN THANKS TO A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE INTERNATIONAL MODELS...BUT STILL
HAS SOUTHERN WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE SFC
TROUGH AXIS AND COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SATURDAY
HOT...WITH PRECIP MOSTLY IN THE WEST AND THEN ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SUNDAY AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPS BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AS
THE COOL AIR MASS SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GFS BRINGS A WEAK
SHORTWAVE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA MONDAY AND CLIPS THE AREA NEAR THE
SD BORDER WITH PRECIP. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...SO WILL KEEP THE
LOW POPS THAT THE BLENDED SOLUTION GIVES US BUT THINK THE MAIN
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MORE TOWARDS MID WEEK AS THE NEXT STRONG
TROUGH MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS. FLOW WILL BE MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY...AND THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING
THE SHORTWAVE INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS
IS SLOWER AND DRIER SO WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE...POSSIBLY GUSTING OVER 20 KTS BY LATE MORNING AHEAD OF A
SFC TROUGH...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH KDVL THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WHILE A
STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY SITE...THE HIGHEST CHANCES APPEAR
TO BE AT KBJI AND KTVF. INCLUDED VCTS AT KGFK/KTVF/KBJI FOR
NOW...AS COVERAGE AND TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...JAM/JR
AVIATION...JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1246 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
HAVE DROPPED ALL POPS FOR THE OVERNIGHT BASED ON IR SATELLITE
SHOWING RAPIDLY WARMING TOPS / CLOUDS DISSIPATING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 927 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE AS VERY ISOLATED
CELLS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA MAY LIKELY QUICKLY FADE AND NOT CROSS
THE BORDER INTO NORTH DAKOTA AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. THE
00-01 UTC HRRR RUNS SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TONIGHT FAR NORTH NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN ASSOCIATION
WITH A WEAK IMPULSE ACROSS NORTHEAST MONTANA AS OF 0230 UTC AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO
DOES CARRY PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
AS OF 2345 UTC...ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA HAS
BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN ITSELF. THE 20-22 UTC HRRR RUNS
HAVE CONTINUED TO OVER DEVELOP CONVECTION THUS FAR AND WILL
DISCOUNT THEIR SOLUTIONS. WILL STILL MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNSET GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 85 AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA. ANY STORM THAT ENTERS THE STATE COULD POSE A SEVERE WIND
THREAT WITH HIGH STORM BASES. HOWEVER THE THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT A SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED OVER NORTHWEST
WYOMING/SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
TOP OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
INTO EASTERN MONTANA. THE FORCING FROM THIS WAVE/COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN MONTANA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY
TRACKING INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. WITH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...CAPPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. BUT IF STORMS DO
FORM WE COULD SEE A STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORM DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY. WITH THE EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE...WILL NOT MENTION
SEVERE WORDING IN THE WEST THIS EVENING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE...AND A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL KEEP A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WE COULD
SEE A STORM OR TWO AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST
LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE EVEN
HOTTER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MOST
OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM INCLUDE VERY WARM CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US...BRINGING FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. ON WEDNESDAY A MID-LEVEL THERMAL CAP SHOULD BE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA
AND WYOMING ON WEDNESDAY...APPROACHING THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE AS WELL. THIS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
OVERCOME A MID-LEVEL CAP...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. HAVE SMALL
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SOME STORMS COULD
BE STRONG...WITH CONVECTION PERHAPS ABLE TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH
DAKOTA ON THURSDAY...WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BECOMING A COLD FRONT
AS IT SAGS SOUTH. THE NAM ALIGNS THE COLD FRONT WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS EVEN WITH VERY WARM
AIR AT MID LEVELS...THE CAP MAY BREAK THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...LINGERING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH NO OBVIOUS SHORTWAVES OR SURFACE
FEATURES TO BREAK THE STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH SATURDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST OUT OF THE
ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 70S.
WITH GRASSES CURING AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS THIS WEEK...THIS MAY
SET THE STAGE FOR FUTURE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. ALTHOUGH WINDS
SHOULD NOT BE STRONG THIS WEEK...ANY DRY AND WINDY DAYS BEYOND THIS
WEEK MAY POSE FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FOR THE
06 UTC TAF PERIOD WITH A VERY WARM AIRMASS IN PLACE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...JPM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
919 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
I WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST OHIO UNTIL NEAR DAWN. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...I
WILL PUSH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. I WILL DECREASE THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT
SECTION OF THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF INTO PA AND NY AS WESTERLIES RAMP UP IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING MEAN LAYER RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE...OR HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
SE ACROSS MI INTO OH SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THROUGH DAY
BREAK...THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST. IN GENERAL LOWS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 60 WITH SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRI
EVENING...A FEW TSTORMS MAY POP UP AS CAPES RISE INTO THE 1000 -
1500 J PER KG RANGE. BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING REAL ORGANIZED. THE FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHES OUT ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...SO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR PURPOSES OF
THE FORECAST...KEY IN ON THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR BEST
ODDS OF PRECIP. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN
AS THE HIGH PROJECTS ITSELF BACK ACROSS OHIO AT THE SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY...MAKING IT
FEEL VERY SUMMERLIKE WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
MON ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE SMALL CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON THEN RAMP
UP POPS INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE AREA.
BY TUE...STILL NOT SURE IF THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SPARE THE LAKESHORE FROM A CHANCE FOR RAIN. TUE
NIGHT INTO WED ANOTHER S/W IS SHOWN DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WITH
THE OLD FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING BACK NE ACROSS THE CWA
AND TENDING TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THU SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS
IN THE FORECAST. WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE POP FOR THU INTO THU
NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW MORE UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON MON WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE WINDS FROM
THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE. BY THU...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE SO TEMPS MORE IN QUESTION BY THEN BUT WILL
SHOW SOME WARMING TAKING PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
WINDS WILL BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AT MOST LOCATIONS
TONIGHT BUT WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY MORNING AND
INCREASE. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL...WEST
AND CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE. WINDS CLOSER TO THE LAKESHORE MAY
GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FRIDAY EVENING AND
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CEILINGS AROUND 5000 FEET. THERE MAY BE
SOME THUNDER NEAR OR AFTER 02Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRI THEN DIMINISH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE
TURNING MORE WEST AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE LAKE.
COULD SEE WAVES EAST OF FAIRPORT HARBOR INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA
CRITERIA BY SOMETIME FRI MORNING.
FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT SHOULD BECOME SOUTH BY SUN THEN
SW BY SUN EVE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MON. ANOTHER
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MON NIGHT
TO PRODUCE NW WINDS FOR TUE BUT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...MULLEN
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1006 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ADDED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS NEAR THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER AFTER 09Z. THE HRRR AND 12KM NAM SUGGEST
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE WAVE FOR A FEW
SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER. THEREFORE...OPTED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA PRIOR TO 12Z. EXPECT THE WAVE TO
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHWARD...SO MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE
FARTHER SOUTH AFTER 12Z.
MAHALE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
14/00Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH PERIOD. THERE ARE MODEL
SIGNALS THAT HIGH BASED SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A FEW EMBEDDED WEAK
STORMS MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TERMINALS TOWARD
AND AFTER 12Z. INITIATION OCCURING ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS AT THIS TYPING. WILL MENTION PROB30 FOR -SHRA FOR
NOW ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TERMINALS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS FARTHER EAST AND SOUTH SO WILL LEAVE MENTION
OUT BUT INCREASE MID- HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK MID-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ALONG IT
HAVE PRODUCED A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MORE SHOWERS TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH IF
THEY OCCUR THEY WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST...BECAUSE OF THE
CIRCULATION OF THESE FEATURES AROUND THE LARGE RIDGE TO THE WEST.
OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL CAUSE OCCASIONAL LOW RAIN/STORM
CHANCES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS TEMPERATURES RISE
SLOWLY FROM DAY TO DAY.
A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM MAY ARRIVE DURING THAT LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY INCONSISTENT
LATELY...SO DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 69 90 67 92 / 10 20 0 0
HOBART OK 71 94 69 94 / 10 20 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 73 95 71 96 / 10 20 10 0
GAGE OK 69 92 67 92 / 20 10 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 69 90 67 92 / 0 10 0 0
DURANT OK 68 95 69 96 / 0 10 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
10/11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
1234 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION FOLLOWS....
&&
.AVIATION...
PERSISTENT SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS W OK. THESE
SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT KGAG/KWWR/KCSM/KHBR/KLAW THIS
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EVEN KSPS...BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY AND
LOWER CEILINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA...OTHERWISE
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS IN -RA. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THERE
WILL BE -SHRA AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE MUCH
WEAKER FORCING. MOST LIKELY...WE WILL SEE MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
LITTLE OR NO RA. WINDS WILL VEER GRADUALLY WITH TIME
TONIGHT/TOMORROW...BUT SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 10 KT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTN WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING. THE
RAIN HAS MOVED FURTHER SE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW POPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND THE
CLOUDS. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NW WHERE RAIN AND
CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED A WARM UP ALREADY AND SHOULD CONT TO DO SO
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. IF CLOUDS/RAIN HOLD ON LONGER
THAN CURRENT THINKING THEN MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ENOUGH
BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD MAKE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
AVIATION...12/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK OF ACCAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NWRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING... IMPACTING KWWR/KGAG.
FELT TEMPOS WERE MOST APPROPRIATE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL... WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS SERN KS
INTO FAR NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINC ZONE OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT WITH THE H700 HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE LLANO ESTACADO IN W CENTRAL TX NEAR LUBBOCK PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. GOOD REPRESENTATION OF CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT
CAN BE VISUALIZED ON THE 310 AND 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE A TAD BULLISH THROUGH
SUNRISE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS SWRN KS
INTO THE NERN PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK. HOWEVER... THE 12/00Z RUN OF
ARW/NMM WRFS ARE ALSO A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ
THROUGH 12Z. IF THIS OCCURS... WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE... MAYBE NOT ON THE ORDER OF
THE HRRR/WRF... BUT MORE THAN WHATS BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH 08Z (3
AM). EITHER WAY... EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK.
THIS AFTERNOON... BESIDES LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AM ACROSS W/NW OK WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
AFTN TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S... LIKELY SETTLING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NWRN OK. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX.
TONIGHT... CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER GOING FOR W/NW OK THROUGH THU AM. WITH THE H500 RIDGE
GOING NOWHERE FAST... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD AND ASCENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CHCS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ALSO REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN OK/WRN N TX AS A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE HIGH. CHCS
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SAT. OTHER THAN THAT... EXPECT A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 66 90 68 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 88 69 94 71 / 40 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 95 72 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 82 66 91 70 / 90 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 87 65 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 92 70 94 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/23/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS WESTERN PARTS OF
THE FA THIS MORNING. MODELS SHOW THIS ACTIVITY DIMINISHING AT
LEAST SOME THIS AFTN WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE RAIN ENDING. THE
RAIN HAS MOVED FURTHER SE THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST SO MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO POP/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND
WILL CONT WITH SOME LOW POPS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS A BIT TRICKY TODAY DUE TO THE RAIN AND THE
CLOUDS. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN THE NW WHERE RAIN AND
CLOUDS HAVE HAMPERED A WARM UP ALREADY AND SHOULD CONT TO DO SO
FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE MORE HOURS. IF CLOUDS/RAIN HOLD ON LONGER
THAN CURRENT THINKING THEN MAY NOT HAVE LOWERED HIGH TEMPS ENOUGH
BUT ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD MAKE TEMPS RISE RAPIDLY THIS
AFTN. ALL UPDATES OUT SOON.
MAXWELL
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
AVIATION...12/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK OF ACCAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NWRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING... IMPACTING KWWR/KGAG.
FELT TEMPOS WERE MOST APPROPRIATE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL... WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS.
JTK
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS SERN KS
INTO FAR NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINC ZONE OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT WITH THE H700 HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE LLANO ESTACADO IN W CENTRAL TX NEAR LUBBOCK PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. GOOD REPRESENTATION OF CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT
CAN BE VISUALIZED ON THE 310 AND 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE A TAD BULLISH THROUGH
SUNRISE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS SWRN KS
INTO THE NERN PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK. HOWEVER... THE 12/00Z RUN OF
ARW/NMM WRFS ARE ALSO A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ
THROUGH 12Z. IF THIS OCCURS... WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE... MAYBE NOT ON THE ORDER OF
THE HRRR/WRF... BUT MORE THAN WHATS BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH 08Z (3
AM). EITHER WAY... EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK.
THIS AFTERNOON... BESIDES LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AM ACROSS W/NW OK WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
AFTN TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S... LIKELY SETTLING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NWRN OK. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX.
TONIGHT... CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER GOING FOR W/NW OK THROUGH THU AM. WITH THE H500 RIDGE
GOING NOWHERE FAST... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD AND ASCENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CHCS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ALSO REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN OK/WRN N TX AS A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE HIGH. CHCS
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SAT. OTHER THAN THAT... EXPECT A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 86 66 90 68 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 88 69 94 71 / 40 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 95 72 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 82 66 91 70 / 90 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 87 65 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
DURANT OK 92 70 94 67 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
25/23
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORMAN OK
613 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.AVIATION...12/12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
LOW/MID LEVEL BKN/OVC DECK OF ACCAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
NWRN OK INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OK THROUGH THE
MORNING. PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVER NWRN OK THROUGH THE MORNING... IMPACTING KWWR/KGAG.
FELT TEMPOS WERE MOST APPROPRIATE GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE. ELSEWHERE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL... WITH SCT TO BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS.
JTK
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS SERN KS
INTO FAR NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINC ZONE OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT WITH THE H700 HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE LLANO ESTACADO IN W CENTRAL TX NEAR LUBBOCK PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. GOOD REPRESENTATION OF CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT
CAN BE VISUALIZED ON THE 310 AND 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE A TAD BULLISH THROUGH
SUNRISE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS SWRN KS
INTO THE NERN PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK. HOWEVER... THE 12/00Z RUN OF
ARW/NMM WRFS ARE ALSO A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ
THROUGH 12Z. IF THIS OCCURS... WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE... MAYBE NOT ON THE ORDER OF
THE HRRR/WRF... BUT MORE THAN WHATS BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH 08Z (3
AM). EITHER WAY... EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK.
THIS AFTERNOON... BESIDES LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AM ACROSS W/NW OK WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
AFTN TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S... LIKELY SETTLING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NWRN OK. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX.
TONIGHT... CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER GOING FOR W/NW OK THROUGH THU AM. WITH THE H500 RIDGE
GOING NOWHERE FAST... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD AND ASCENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CHCS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ALSO REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN OK/WRN N TX AS A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE HIGH. CHCS
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SAT. OTHER THAN THAT... EXPECT A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 66 90 68 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 91 69 94 71 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 95 72 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 86 66 91 70 / 40 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 65 90 69 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 70 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORMAN OK
258 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...
THIS MORNING... SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS SERN KS
INTO FAR NWRN OK. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN ALONG A MID-LEVEL
BAROCLINC ZONE OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT WITH THE H700 HIGH CENTERED
OVER THE LLANO ESTACADO IN W CENTRAL TX NEAR LUBBOCK PER SPC
MESOANALYSIS. GOOD REPRESENTATION OF CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE AND ASCENT
CAN BE VISUALIZED ON THE 310 AND 315K ISENTROPIC SURFACES. LATEST
RUNS OF THE HRRR THIS MORNING APPEAR TO BE A TAD BULLISH THROUGH
SUNRISE... DEVELOPING A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF PRECIP ACROSS SWRN KS
INTO THE NERN PANHANDLES AND NWRN OK. HOWEVER... THE 12/00Z RUN OF
ARW/NMM WRFS ARE ALSO A TAD AGGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS FROM THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF SUGGEST A SLIGHT UPTICK IN THE LLJ
THROUGH 12Z. IF THIS OCCURS... WE COULD SEE SOME INCREASED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE... MAYBE NOT ON THE ORDER OF
THE HRRR/WRF... BUT MORE THAN WHATS BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH 08Z (3
AM). EITHER WAY... EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND LINGER THROUGH THE AFTN ACROSS W/NW OK.
THIS AFTERNOON... BESIDES LINGERING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...
INCREASING CLOUD COVER THIS AM ACROSS W/NW OK WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
AFTN TEMPS. HIGHS THIS AFTN WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB INTO THE UPPER
80S... LIKELY SETTLING IN THE MID 80S ACROSS NWRN OK. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FROM CENTRAL OK INTO NRN TX.
TONIGHT... CONTINUE TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDER GOING FOR W/NW OK THROUGH THU AM. WITH THE H500 RIDGE
GOING NOWHERE FAST... MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD AND ASCENT WILL
BE SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING... KEEPING A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CHCS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK... SEASONABLE TEMPS WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ALSO REMAINS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRI ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WRN OK/WRN N TX AS A WEAK H500 SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE HIGH. CHCS
WILL LINGER INTO EARLY SAT. OTHER THAN THAT... EXPECT A DRY AND
PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND.
JTK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
OKLAHOMA CITY OK 88 66 90 68 / 10 10 0 10
HOBART OK 91 69 94 71 / 10 10 10 0
WICHITA FALLS TX 93 71 95 72 / 10 10 0 0
GAGE OK 86 66 91 70 / 40 20 0 0
PONCA CITY OK 89 65 90 69 / 10 0 0 0
DURANT OK 95 70 94 67 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1117 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RIDGE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST COOL LOW HUMIDITY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOW SET IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS AND LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY VALLEY FOG IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BURNS OFF FAST. WEAK RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AND STEADILY MOISTER AIR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH NOW GOES TO ABOUT NOON FRIDAY SHOWS NO HINT
OF CONVECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AND LIKELY
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE AT 16Z. BUT IT DOES SHOW THE MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
BUT THE NCEP MODELS AND BLENDS ALL IMPLY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS BY
THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. THE NEW 21Z
SREF IS OF COURSE DRIER THAN THE 15Z SREF AND KEEPS THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY BORDER. THE TWO BEST
AREAS OF CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER WOULD BE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER AND
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TRIED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHWEST
AND CHANCE FOCUSED MAINLY WARREN AND MCKEAN TAPERING OFF TO EAST
AND SOUTH.
COULD BE LINGERING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
CHANCE POPS. THE COURSER SREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS USE
PARAMETERIZED PRECIPITATION SO THEY MAY BE TOO WET. BUT HAD TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT LOWERING WITH TIME.
GUIDANCE IMPLIES WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY THOUGH PW
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL. AT THIS TIME THE 21Z SREF AND 15Z SREF
PARALLEL SUGGEST BEST CHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS IN UPDATED FORECAST.
GOOD NEWS IS MOST MEMBERS SHOW A FEW HUNDRETHS AT THIS TIME AND
ONLY A FEW GET CLOSE TO 0.50 INCHES IN 24 HOURS SO LIGHT SHOWERS
IS THE FORECAST IMPLICATION. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW CAPE
GENERALLYIN THE 1200 JKG-1 RANGE ON SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW WITH
HIGH CAPE AT THIS TIME. CAPE OVER 1200 JKG-1 IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME KEEP CELLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY LOWS/TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE OVER AND
AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES AND THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY THE CORRESPONDING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST WILL DEEPEN....BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY STALL AND MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN ANY CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT STALLS SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE AT OR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER
AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REST OF CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY ON TIMING SO HAVE LEFT BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH
A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT. SOME
ISOLD VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM
VALLEYS NORTH OF I-80. SOME OF THIS FOG COULD POTENTIALLY AFFECT
KBFD...SO CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KBFD SOMETIME
BTWN 06Z-12Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR A NEAR CERTAINTY AGAIN
ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RIDGE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST COOL LOW HUMIDITY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOW SET IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS AND LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANY VALLEY FOG IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BURNS OFF FAST. WEAK RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AND STEADILY MOISTER AIR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH NOW GOES TO ABOUT NOON FRIDAY SHOWS NO HINT
OF CONVECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AND LIKELY
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE AT 16Z. BUT IT DOES SHOW THE MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
BUT THE NCEP MODELS AND BLENDS ALL IMPLY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS BY
THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. THE NEW 21Z
SREF IS OF COURSE DRIER THAN THE 15Z SREF AND KEEPS THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY BORDER. THE TWO BEST
AREAS OF CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER WOULD BE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER AND
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TRIED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHWEST
AND CHANCE FOCUSED MAINLY WARREN AND MCKEAN TAPERING OFF TO EAST
AND SOUTH.
COULD BE LINGERING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
CHANCE POPS. THE COURSER SREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS USE
PARAMETERIZED PRECIPITATION SO THEY MAY BE TOO WET. BUT HAD TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT LOWERING WITH TIME.
GUIDANCE IMPLIES WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY THOUGH PW
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL. AT THIS TIME THE 21Z SREF AND 15Z SREF
PARALLEL SUGGEST BEST CHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS IN UPDATED FORECAST.
GOOD NEWS IS MOST MEMBERS SHOW A FEW HUNDRETHS AT THIS TIME AND
ONLY A FEW GET CLOSE TO 0.50 INCHES IN 24 HOURS SO LIGHT SHOWERS
IS THE FORECAST IMPLICATION. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW CAPE
GENERALLYIN THE 1200 JKG-1 RANGE ON SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW WITH
HIGH CAPE AT THIS TIME. CAPE OVER 1200 JKG-1 IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME KEEP CELLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY LOWS/TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE OVER AND
AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES AND THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY THE CORRESPONDING
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST WILL DEEPEN....BRINGING A FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. AS THIS BOUNDARY STALL AND MOVES
INTO DRIER AIR...ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NW
MTNS. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN
TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL AID IN ANY CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT STALLS SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE AT OR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER
AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REST OF CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY ON TIMING SO HAVE LEFT BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE MOST OF CENTRAL PA WITH
A NEAR CERTAINTY OF VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND TONIGHT. SOME ISOLD
VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN THE DEEP RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS
NORTH OF I-80. CAN/T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR AT KBFD
SOMETIME BTWN 06Z-12Z.
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WIND APPEAR A NEAR CERTAINTY AGAIN
ON FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...FITZGERALD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
413 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROF WILL KEEP PLEASANT CONDITIONS ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND LATER THIS WEEK WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING EAST FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS AND FORECASTS WITH LATEST DATA AND OBSERVATIONS.
RADAR SHOWS TWO LINES OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION ONE IN THE
NORTHEAST WHICH IS WEAKER AND ONE WHICH IS MORE ORGANIZED WHICH
JUST PAST THROUGH WILLIAMSPORT. TRIED TO SHOW HIGHER CHANCES IN
AREAS WHERE THESE LINES WILL MOVE THROUGH.
DEEP 500 TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY HAVE CREATED INSTABILITY
SHOWERS. REALLY HARD TO PIN POINT WHERE IT MIGHT RAIN SO SLIGHT
CHANCE IS BEST OPTION THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR DOES SHOW SOME
ORGANIZATION WITH THE SHOWERS NEAR WELLSBORO AND THE BETTER BROKEN
LINE FROM MILESBURG TO SUNBURY INTO BLOOMSBURG AND STILL WATER.
TRIED TO DEPICT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE.
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL SUBSIDE RAPIDLY AS SUN ANGLE LOWERS.
MOSTLY CLEAR COOL LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
QUIET WX FOR THE SHORT TERM AS THE LONG WAVE RIDGE AND SFC HIGH
MOVE EASTWARD ON THURSDAY. UPPER FLOW FROM THE W/NW. SFC BUBBLE
WILL STRETCH FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
NO WAY FOR MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OR ATLANTIC TO REACH US. FAIR
WEATHER WILL RESULT...WITH CU ONLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANY
MORNING VALLEY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF BY 9 AM.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...
BRINGING CLEARER CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL HELP BRING ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN AS A SHALLOW TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO TRAVERSE THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MOISTURE WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG THE
NEW YORK BORDER AND NORTH. THOUGH AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO TILT
POSITIVE AND DEEPENS...THERE WILL BE A GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HALF OF PA. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE
WESTERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY
CONVECTION. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL ON SATURDAY...WHICH COULD ALLOW
FOR DAYTIME SUMMER CONVECTION BEFORE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA ON SUNDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PATTERN HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
UPWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING ACCORDINGLY. HAVE ADJUSTED
TEMPERATURES UPWARD AS WELL. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS SUCCESSIVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WIDESPREAD...BUT SMALL BRIEF SHOWERS WILL BE
AFFECTING THE CENTRAL TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST FEW HRS OF THE FCST.
IPT MOST AT RISK. NW FLOW SHOULD HELP TO DRY THINGS UP AS THEY
DROP INTO THE LWR SUSQ. THEN CLEARING TAKES PLACE AFTER THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. SKY WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR - PROBABLY BEFORE
BEFORE 00Z AT MOST LOCATIONS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR THE NEXT 3-5
HRS TO GENERATE AN ISOLD TSRA AS WELL...MAINLY OVER THE EAST -
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...POSSIBILITY IS LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL
NOT MENTION IN TAFS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. CLEAR SKIES WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO FALL TO LOWER THAN THE CROSS-OVER VALUES AND FOG
SHOULD FILL IN THE VALLEYS OF THE NORTH AND PERHAPS CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. WILL PLAY UP IFR FOR BFD AND IPT BUT ONLY TAKE OTHERS
INTO MVFR AT WORST. THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY DUE TO FULL
SUN AND DRY LOW LEVELS. THEN...VFR UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. JUST A
EXTREMELY MINIMAL CHC FOR A SHRA IN THE AFTN OVER THE MTNS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION.
OUTLOOK...
FRI...AM VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT...MAINLY VFR...SCATTERED SHOWERS. POSSIBLE
THUNDER.
SUN...NO SIG WX.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...DANGELO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MORRISTOWN TN
947 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED AFTER SUNSET IN SW NC AND
NORTHERN GA IN THE VICINITY OF A CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. REGIONAL 00Z
SOUNDINGS AND MESOANALYSIS SHOW THAT INSTABILITY IS LOCATED TO OUR
SOUTH WITH A SHARP GRADIENT NEAR THE GA BORDER. THE RAP TRIES TO
INTENSIFY SHOWERS TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THEM
NORTHWARD...BUT THE HRRR KEEPS THE ACTIVITY IN GA. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO EXTEND POPS TO 06Z...BUT KEEP THE FORECAST DRY AFTER. A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE MADE TO TEMPERATURES AS WELL.
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
339 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR STREAMING WESTWARD
ACROSS TRANS-PECOS AND BIG BEND THIS AFTERNOON HAS EXPANDED ITS
NORTHERN PERIPHERY INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
COUPLED WITH WEAK UPSLOPE HAS RESULTED IN CU FIELD SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON BUT WITH SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE AND FOR NOW
LESS VERTICAL EXTENT.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF -10/KM OR MORE ARE RUNNING INTO
ALMOST AS IMPRESSIVE CAPPING INVERSIONS ACROSS OUR AREA THAT SHOULD
KEEP ANY SHOWERS OR TSTORMS FROM INITIATING. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE
HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY MIGRATES OUT OF WEST TEXAS TOWARD THE FOUR
CORNERS. STREAMLINE SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE I27 CORRIDOR AND ITS SUBSEQUENT CI CONSISTENTLY ADVERTISED BY
THE HRRR ALL MORNING HAS NOT MATERIALIZED...WHILE THE RAP HAS
STRUGGLED WITH SIMILAR ISSUES. HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE TX/NM BORDER
NEAR THE SW TEXAS PANHANDLE CLOSELY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS
GIVEN PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS BUT
HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP OUT ANY MENTIONABLE POPS ATTM. ADJUSTED
TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES ACROSS OUR SE COUNTIES IN THE ROLLING
PLAINS GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...OTHERWISE GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS
TODAY...TONIGHT AND TOMORROW SEEM GOOD.
CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR AFTER SUNSET PROVIDING GOOD VIEWING OF
TONIGHT/S PERSEID METEOR SHOWER PEAKING AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE NO
MENTIONABLE POPS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW BUT THERE IS A
NONZERO CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS BRUSHING OUR EASTERN ZONES OFF THE
CAPROCK IF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW LAST NIGHT
IS ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.
.LONG TERM...
THE UA RIDGE IS STILL PROJECTED TO DRIFT WRD TO ACROSS THE FOUR-
CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND...AND WILL BE PARKED THERE FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A FEW MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO HINT AT
CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE SO OFF THE CAPROCK ON FRIDAY...APPEARING TO
BE COURTESY OF A BIT OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING AND WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. ALTHOUGH 1000-2000 J/KG OF SFC-BASED CAPE WILL
BE AVAILABLE...A WEAK CAP IS NOTICEABLE PER MODEL SOUNDINGS
AROUND 700 MB...THEREBY INSINUATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERY/WEAK
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
HOWEVER...FOCUS FOR PRECIP WILL SWITCH TO LOCALES ON THE
CAPROCK...NEAREST TO A SFC TROUGH. ALTHOUGH...FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
FROM A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS NOT VERY CONDUCIVE
FOR STORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NM AND CO TO MAKE IT TO
THE SOUTH PLAINS. IT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC TROUGH...WHETHER IT WILL BE CONFINED TO NM
/AS SUGGESTED BY MODEL SOLUTIONS/ OR CLOSER TO THE TX/NM BORDER.
NONETHELESS...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS PER THE SUPER-BLENDED SOLUTION
APPEARS REASONABLE ATTM. BY MID-WEEK...AN UA SHORTWAVE POISED TO
MOVE FROM THE NW PACIFIC TO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN THE DE-AMPLIFICATION OF THE UA RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND
HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS A COLD FRONT
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES THE CWA. WE WILL SEE IF THIS CHANGE IN THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES INDEED COME INTO FRUITION...AS THAT COLD
FRONT COULD BE OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP.
GIVEN THE UA RIDGE WILL BE NOT BE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD...TEMPS WILL
WARM TO SEASONAL NORMS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD /LOWER 90S ON
THE CAPROCK TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S OFF THE CAPROCK/.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 65 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 20
TULIA 66 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 20
PLAINVIEW 67 95 68 93 / 0 0 10 20
LEVELLAND 68 96 69 97 / 0 0 0 10
LUBBOCK 69 96 71 97 / 0 0 10 20
DENVER CITY 69 96 69 98 / 0 0 0 10
BROWNFIELD 69 96 69 99 / 0 0 0 10
CHILDRESS 70 97 72 98 / 10 0 10 20
SPUR 70 97 71 98 / 10 10 10 20
ASPERMONT 72 99 73 99 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55/29
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1236 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.DISCUSSION...FOR 06Z TAFS
&&
.AVIATION...COULD BE SOME BRIEF MVFR VSBY IN FOG AT ALI/VCT
TOWARD DAYBREAK AND WILL CONTINUE MENTION IN A TEMPO GROUP THERE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE
AROUND VCT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE PROB30 FOR A GUSTY STORM. OTHW
VFR CONDS WILL CONTINUE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1034 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO REMOVE RAIN CHANCES FOR VICTORIA AREA
AS CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FROM
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
CONTINUE TO HOLD TOGETHER FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE AIR MASS
STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. 23Z HRRR MODEL SHOWS
THIS POSSIBILITY. GOES SOUNDER SHOWS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS WHILE THE AIR MASS IS SLIGHTLY DRIER
OVER THE COASTAL BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS OVER THE VICTORIA CROSSROADS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION.
AVIATION...WILL KEEP MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
TSRA NOTED NORTHEAST OF VCT TAF SITE. THINK THESE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...BUT WILL MONITOR. COULD SEE A BIT OF
FOG ONCE AGAIN TOWARD SUNRISE...HAVE TEMPO MVFR GROUPS. DURING THE
DAY TOMORROW...MOST SITES REMAIN VFR. TSRA COULD APPROACH VCT SITE
DURING THE AFTERNOON...HAVE PROB30 FOR THAT SITE DURING THE DAY.
ALI AND CRP HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION AS WELL...BUT TOO
SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN ISSUE IS THE
CHANCE FOR RAIN...WHICH IS NOT STRAIGHT-FORWARD SINCE MESO-SCALE
INFLUENCES WILL PLAY SOME ROLE IN HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST CONVECTION
GOES (AND HOW MUCH AREA GETS). MOST MODELS KEEP AT LEAST A BIT OF A
CAP/CIN BUT IT GETS CLOSE TO BREAKING AND ANY STORM WHICH BREAKS THE
CAP (GIVEN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES) COULD INITIATE MORE CONVECTION VIA
COOLING AND/OR CONVERGENCE.
FOR TONIGHT...THINK ANY CONVECTION WHICH DEVELOPS NORTH OF THE CWFA
WILL REMAIN NORTH (THIS AGREES WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND TTU SMALL
SCALE MODELS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE MSSL MODEL RUN AT 11/00Z).
FOR WEDNESDAY...MOISTURE GETS BETTER AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY (MAINLY NORTH) COULD TRIGGER CONVECTION WHICH COULD MOVE
INTO THE CWFA IN THE AFTEROOON AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING. THUS...
WILL MAINTAIN THE HIGHER POPS TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AND
NEAR THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT WILL MENTION AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ALL LOCATIONS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
OTHER THAN THAT...STILL LOOKS LIKE A HOT DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH
BOUNDARY/FRONT TO THE NORTH. HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE
FOR TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNING LOWS...A BIT TRICKER AS
MOST MODEL 2 METER TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM BUT ALSO SHOWING
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AND ABOUT THE SAME IF NOT COOLER BOUNDARY
LAYER TEMPERATURES. AM GOING WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS FORECAST (BUT
A TAD WARMER THAN THIS MORNING DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED TEMPERATURES)
FOR WEDNESDAY`S LOW TEMPERATURES...AND EVEN A BIT WARMER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. OBVIOUSLY ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT (WHICH IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE MORE THAN ISOLATED AND MAINLY IN THE EVENING)
COULD LOWER TEMPERATURES MORE THAN EXPECTED. FINALLY...GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND MORE CLOUDS ON WEDNESDAY THAN TODAY.
$$
MARINE (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...A WEAK GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST WITH FRONT/BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL HAVE TROUBLE
MAKING IT BEYOND 10-12 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...MAYBE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT DID GO A BIT HIGHER OVER THE NORTHEAST
PROXIMATE TO BETTER FORCING AND LIMITED CAP.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...EXTENDED BEGINS WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS STILL FAR ENOUGH WEST TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE CAP AND
MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL BEND. RIDGE AXIS THEN
WOBBLES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN DRY AND WARM
WEATHER.
BY MONDAY MODELS PROJECT THE NEXT IMPULSE REACHING THE GREAT LAKES
TO EXTEND SOUTHWEST DOWN UNDER THE BULK OF THE RIDGE...COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. IF THIS PANS OUT...IT WILL HAVE THE DOUBLE
EFFECT OF REINTRODUCING LOW POPS AND COOLING TEMPERATURES BY FIVE OR
SO DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ELEVATED HEAT INDICES AS WELL. HIGHS MAY RELAX A BIT TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD...WITH READINGS CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MID AUGUST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI 99 77 96 77 95 / 20 20 30 10 10
VICTORIA 101 76 98 76 98 / 30 30 30 10 10
LAREDO 103 80 104 80 102 / 10 20 20 10 10
ALICE 102 76 100 76 100 / 20 20 30 10 10
ROCKPORT 96 79 93 80 92 / 30 30 30 10 10
COTULLA 104 79 103 78 102 / 20 20 20 10 10
KINGSVILLE 101 76 98 76 97 / 20 20 30 10 10
NAVY CORPUS 94 80 91 80 90 / 20 20 30 10 10
&&
.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
TJ/70...AVIATION
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1231 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD WESTWARD AND
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA FROM EARLIER CONVECTION ACROSS EAST TEXAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
PRODUCE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT EXPECTED ON
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS MAY AFFECT THE KSAT/KSSF AND
KDRT TERMINALS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
OVERALL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS AREA SITES THROUGH
MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
UPDATE...
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED FROM THE
HILL COUNTRY TO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS EVENING. THERE IS A STRONG
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY GRADIENT DRAPED OVER BASICALLY THE I35
CORRIDOR WHICH HAS PREVENTED MUCH ACTIVITY FROM SURVIVING BEYOND
THAT POINT. FARTHER EAST...COLD POOL DYNAMICS HAVE TAKEN OVER AND
GENERATED A SEVERE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST EAST OF THE LAVACA
COUNTY LINE AND ARE MOVING SOUTHWEST. SHOULD MISS THE CWA MOSTLY
WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS PRESENT THROUGH 10 PM. THREAT CONTINUES
TO REMAIN MOSTLY GUSTY WINDS OF UP TO 40 MPH THROUGH THE MID
EVENING. QUICKLY AFTER NIGHTFALL...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME QUIETER.
UPDATED HOURLY GRIDS TO MESH WITH LATEST OBS AND POPULATED HOURLY
WIND GRIDS WITH HRRR AS IT WAS PERFORMING WELL WITH THE OUTFLOW
WINDS GENERATED BY THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION.
ALSO...THE HEAT ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 8PM. UPDATED
THE PRODUCT SUITE TO REMOVE THE ADVISORY WORDING.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
AVIATION...
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA WILL LINGER UNTIL A LITTLE AFTER SUNSET EAST OF A
KAQO TO KT20 TO KARM LINE. KAUS HAS BEST CHANCE. HOWEVER...WILL
LEAVE OUT AS PROBS LESS THAN 20. DAYTIME HEATING INTERACTING WITH
A WEAK FRONTAL ZONE AND DEEPER MOISTURE DRIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WILL ALLOW ISOLD/SCT SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KDRT TO KBAZ TO K3T5 LINE.
WILL MENTION AT KSAT/KSSF AFTER 12/20Z AND KDRT AFTER 12/22Z WITH
PROB30S. SKIES WILL BE VFR AS BELOW 3K FT DRIES OUT AND ABOVE 3K
MOISTENS UP. THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST WITH
MAINLY SELY WINDS 10 KTS OR LESS SHIFTING TO MAINLY NELY.
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR SHRA/TSRA.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 105 DEGREES ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT RANGE
GUIDANCE...WE WILL CONTINUE THE HEAT ADVISORY TODAY. THE HEAT
CONTINUES TOMORROW AND BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...WE COULD SEE A
FEW SPOTS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 NEAR HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON
EXTENDING THE ADVISORY AND AWAIT ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF TEMPERATURE
GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...WE/LL MAINTAIN A VERY LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF A BURNET TO CUERO LINE. WE EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY
WILL BE TIED CLOSELY TO DIURNAL HEATING...SO WILL NOT MENTION ANY
RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WE EXPECT ANOTHER SHOT FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE REMNANTS OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGHEST ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE THE HIGHWAY 90 CORRIDOR...SO WE/LL MENTION HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THIS REGION.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
DRIER AIR IN THE LOW-LEVELS FILTERS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON
THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN MOST AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 90
REMAINING DRY...WITH A 20-30% CHANCE FOR RAIN GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90. THE MID-LEVEL MOIST AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT
WESTWARD ON FRIDAY AND WE/LL ONLY MENTION ISOLATED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WITH DRY WEATHER ELSEWHERE.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWER
MS RIVER VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH AND
LOCATION OF THIS LOW/TROUGH. FOR NOW...WE/LL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
DRY. AS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH
IS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH READINGS DROPPING CLOSER TO
NORMAL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 79 101 77 100 76 / 10 - - - -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 100 73 99 73 / 10 10 - - -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 77 101 75 100 74 / 10 10 - - 10
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 74 98 74 / - 10 - 10 10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 103 79 101 78 / 20 20 - 10 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 77 99 74 98 74 / - - - - -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 76 102 75 99 74 / 20 20 - - -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 78 101 76 98 75 / 10 10 - - 10
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 77 101 75 99 74 / 10 10 - - 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 80 101 77 98 76 / 20 10 - - -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 80 102 77 100 76 / 20 20 - - -
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1048 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER
ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTED FIRING FURTHER EAST THOUGH...ALONG A 1-
2KM MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY...AND IN A REGION OF 800-1200 J/KG OF ML
CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS...WHILE 0-3KM
HELICITY IS APPROX. 250...SO IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK WE
COULD HAVE A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET UPSTREAM.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG REGION THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE DRY IN THAT AREA. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS POSITIONED
ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE START OF THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY IS LOST. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...NOT MUCH TO HANG
YOUR HAT ON. WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHERE A MID-LEVEL DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS PROJECTED TO
STALL OUT. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA...AND AN UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL IS VERY
DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE A DRY ONE AND WILL REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY...THINK THE QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. PROJECTED ML
CAPES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER EASTERN WI (AROUND 3000 J/KG) IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE VIA LAKE
BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE
EAST. MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30KTS. ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE FOUR CORNERS TO GREAT LAKES UPR RDG IS STILL FCST TO WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE TO THE SW CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER. THE MAIN STORY FOR MID-WEEK WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM UPR
RIDGING OVER THE E-CNTRL CONUS. A SURGE OF WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR
INTO WI COULD LEAD TO ADDL PCPN CHCS. TEMPS WL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THRU SUNDAY...FALL A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE AND BEGIN
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS OR TSTMS OVER SRN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING AS THE CDFNT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION. OTHERWISE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES TO DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPR HEIGHTS AS THE NE EXTENT OF THE UPR RDG PUSHES INTO WI. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVRNGT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING
LGT/VRBL...ANTICIPATE SOME LATE NGT FOG TO DEVELOPE AND HAVE ADDED
THIS POTENTIAL TO THE FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
50S NORTH...TO THE LWR TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THE UPR RDG AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD THRU SAT...THEREBY INHIBITING
ANY CHC FOR TSTMS AS A SOLID CAP TO BE IN PLACE. 8H TEMPS IN THE
+20-+22C RANGE...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE MI
(LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCED)...TO THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S INLAND WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S SAT AFTERNOON.
THE SFC HI SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPR RDG STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED
SWD SAT NGT AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. A CDFNT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...BUT BE TOO FAR AWAY TO BRING
ANY PCPN TO NE WI. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY NGT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND PERHAPS MORE PATCHY FOG. FOR THE MOST
PART...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE. EVEN
THO THE BETTER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO LIFT E-NE INTO
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THE CDFNT WL CONT TO PUSH EWD AND IMPINGE ON
N-CNTRL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL QUITE WARM ON
SUNDAY (8H TEMPS +18 TO +21C) AND MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RUN ALONG THE FNT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ONLY MENTIONING A SMALL CHC POP FOR N-CNTRL WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF NE WI WL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER VERY WARM/HUMID DAY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 90 DEGS ACROSS
E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM NE TO SW WI BY 12Z MON AND EXIT
E-CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY MON. INSTABILITY DOES WEAKEN SUNDAY NGT
AS THE FNT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET WHICH WL ONLY ADD
TO THE LIFT ALONG WITH THE CDFNT. HI CHC OR LIKELY POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THESE POPS
THEN SHIFTED SE ON MON. NRN WI SHOULD BE ABLE TO END THE PCPN CHCS
BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE FNT PULLS AWAY AND HI PRES STARTS TO
SETTLE SE TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS ON MON
WL BE VASTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CLOUDS/PCPN/CDFNT IN
THE AREA. READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 70S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 70S SOUTH.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MON NGT AND TUE AS THE SFC
HI TO RESIDE FROM ONTARIO TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS MON
NGT COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL WI...
WHILE THE REST OF AREA WL SEE THE 50S. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH AROUND 70S DEGS LAKESIDE...LWR TO MID 70S NORTH
AND MID TO UPR 70S SOUTH.
A NEW AND STRONG-LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TUE NGT TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY NEXT THU. DOWNSTREAM
UPR RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
WI WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH ISEN LIFT AND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...
A WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE
TIMING OF ALL THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN...
PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NGT THRU THU. MAX TEMPS AT
MID-WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1048 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
SOME GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR WEATHER WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
841 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
IT SHOULD BE QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. RAP SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE STABLE NOW BELOW ABOUT 7-8KFT AND GIVEN A LACK OF ANY DEEP
FORCING...WE SHOULDN/T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO ANYTHING ABOVE THAT.
IN ADDITION...THE H8 MOISTURE AXIS IS SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE
BORDER AS THE TROF AT THAT LEVEL PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
TEMPS LOOK ON TARGET...DROPPING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. NO
CHANGES TO TOMORROW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.AVIATION/06Z TAFS/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS
ON FRIDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT AROUND 10KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
SHORT TERM...
REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
CONSENSUS OF MESO MODELS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT
OF SHRA/TSRA ACROSS CNTRL WI. THIS IS LIKELY TO EXPAND SEWD INTO
SRN WI AS THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WEARS ON. AIRMASS HAS LACKED
FORCING BUT THE APPROACHING TROUGH NOW PROVIDING THE TRIGGER FOR THE
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 0-6KM SHEAR IS BORDERLINE THOUGH MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. FEEL THAT AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THESE SHRA/TSRA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MESO MODELS SHOW A DECREASE IN THE ACTIVITY LATER
THIS EVENING.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SETUP APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. MODELS
ALL SHOW SOUTHEAST MOVING 500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE INTERACTING BETTER
MOISTURE/INSTAB POOLING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SHOW A RANGE OF CAPE FROM GFS...1000 J/KG TO THE NAM...2000
J/KG. 925 TEMPS ARE JUST A SMIDGE COOLER ON THE ECMWF AND NAM FROM
THE CONVECTION MEANWHILE THE GFS SHOWS LESS CONVECTION AND 925 TEMPS
SOARING INTO THE UPPER 20S CELSIUS. GIVEN STORM POTENTIAL AND CLOUD
COVER ISSUES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HIGHS GET
TEMPERED DEPENDING ON SPATIAL COVERAGE. SPC MRGL RISK SEEMS WARRANTED
GIVEN THE COMBO OF FORCING AND INSTABILITY.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WITH A WEAK NORTH
UPPER FLOW OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
WEAK TO MODERATE 700 MB UPWARD MOTION WEAKENS MORE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
850 MB TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM.
SURFACE TO 1 KM CAPE VALUES ARE AROUND 2500 JOULES/KG OVER
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN EARLY FRIDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH
AXIS AS THE SURFACE LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHEAST WISCONSIN.
AN AXIS OF HIGHER CAPE VALUES REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN
AROUND 1500 JOULES/KG EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS MIX
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH STEEP SURFACE TO 3 KM LAPSE RATES OF
9.9 CELSIUS/KM. MOISTURE JUST BELOW 700 MB TO 550 MB GIVES AN
INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDING.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE VERY WARM SATURDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
LAKE BREEZE TO DEVELOP...AS OFFSHORE WINDS DO NOT LOOK THAT
STRONG. IF A LAKE BREEZE DOES MOVE INLAND...WOULD LIKELY NOT
HAPPEN UNTIL EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...SO STILL KEPT TEMPERATURES ON
THE WARM SIDE NEAR THE LAKE.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER RIDGE LEANS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE 850/700 MB WINDS INCREASE ACROSS
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. WITH THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
SUNDAY LOOKS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...EXCEPT SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
BE A BIT STRONGER...ALLOWING FOR WARMEST TEMPS ALL THE WAY TO THE
LAKE. ALSO...TEMPS ALOFT ARE A BIT MILDER THAN SATURDAY...SUGGESTING
MOST PLACES COULD GET TO AT LEAST 90. APPEARS STEEP LAPSE RATES
WILL MIX OUT DEW POINTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SURFACE TO 3 KM
LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 8.9 CELSIUS/KM.
LONG TERM...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF WEAKEN THE PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE U.S. CANADIAN
BORDER AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN OVER THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. THE GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE ECMWF AND DGEX BRINGS IT EAST MUCH
QUICKER.
PRECIPITATION MOVES IN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM
AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS. THE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HEAVIER ON THE GFS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE HEAVIER THURSDAY ON
THE ECMWF. THE GFS KEEPS THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS
TAKES THE LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
SW WINDS ASSOC WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND WILL CONTINUE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE AS TROUGH FROM
CNTRL WI SLIDES ESE TOWARDS SRN WI. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED INTO
THE EVENING WITH A DIMINISHING TREND LATER IN THE EVENING. MORE
SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED FRIDAY AS BOUNDARY REMAINS IN THE AREA AND UPPER
AIR DISTURBANCE AIDS IN VERTICAL MOTION.
MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE INCREASED WITH BETTER HEATING/MIXING
TAKING HOLD. PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTH AND LOW PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS WILL
LOWER THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW. NO CHANGE TO CURRENT HEADLINE
TIMING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DAVIS
TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HENTZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
633 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A RATHER
ILL-DEFINED SURFACE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
SHOWERS AND STORMS STARTED FIRING FURTHER EAST THOUGH...ALONG A 1-
2KM MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY...AND IN A REGION OF 800-1200 J/KG OF ML
CAPE. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 30 KTS...WHILE 0-3KM
HELICITY IS APPROX. 250...SO IT IS NOT UNREASONABLE TO THINK WE
COULD HAVE A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH FURTHER
DESTABILIZATION. CONDITIONS ARE FAIRLY QUIET UPSTREAM.
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST WITH THE MEAN FLOW. THERE IS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE LAKE
WINNIPEG REGION THAT WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MORE DRY IN THAT AREA. WITH A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS POSITIONED
ACROSS THE REGION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS THE MAIN
FORECAST CONCERN.
TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING OVER
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN AT THE START OF THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE AS INSTABILITY IS LOST. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEREAFTER...NOT MUCH TO HANG
YOUR HAT ON. WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE PUSH INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA
AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHERE A MID-LEVEL DEWPOINT GRADIENT IS PROJECTED TO
STALL OUT. HOWEVER...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER NEAR THE
SHORTWAVE OVER MANITOBA...AND AN UPSTREAM SOUNDING FROM INL IS VERY
DRY IN THE MID-LEVELS. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT THE
REST OF THE NIGHT WILL BE A DRY ONE AND WILL REMOVE PRECIP CHANCES.
MUGGY LOWS IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY...THINK THE QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER WILL CARRY OVER INTO
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS BUILD WITH HEATING OF THE DAY...WITH
SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD. PROJECTED ML
CAPES ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER EASTERN WI (AROUND 3000 J/KG) IN THE
AFTERNOON WHERE LOCALIZED CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE VIA LAKE
BREEZE. WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE
EAST. MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY AND 0-6KM BULK SHEARS OF 25-30KTS. ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE FOUR CORNERS TO GREAT LAKES UPR RDG IS STILL FCST TO WEAKEN
AND RETROGRADE TO THE SW CONUS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WOULD LEAVE THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF STATES FOR
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS TO IMPACT OUR
WEATHER. THE MAIN STORY FOR MID-WEEK WL BE THE MOVEMENT OF A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROF TOWARD THE CNTRL CONUS AND DOWNSTREAM UPR
RIDGING OVER THE E-CNTRL CONUS. A SURGE OF WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR
INTO WI COULD LEAD TO ADDL PCPN CHCS. TEMPS WL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL THRU SUNDAY...FALL A TOUCH BELOW NORMAL MON-TUE AND BEGIN
TO WARM ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LINGERING SHWRS OR TSTMS OVER SRN SECTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA FRI EVENING AS THE CDFNT AND MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING THE REGION. OTHERWISE...
WEAK SFC HI PRES TO DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPR HEIGHTS AS THE NE EXTENT OF THE UPR RDG PUSHES INTO WI. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR OVRNGT AND WITH WINDS BECOMING
LGT/VRBL...ANTICIPATE SOME LATE NGT FOG TO DEVELOPE AND HAVE ADDED
THIS POTENTIAL TO THE FCST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPR
50S NORTH...TO THE LWR TO MID 60S SOUTH.
THE UPR RDG AXIS REMAINS OVERHEAD THRU SAT...THEREBY INHIBITING
ANY CHC FOR TSTMS AS A SOLID CAP TO BE IN PLACE. 8H TEMPS IN THE
+20-+22C RANGE...COMBINED WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD BRING A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY TO THE AREA.
LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S NEAR LAKE MI
(LAKE BREEZE INFLUENCED)...TO THE MID 80S TO LWR 90S INLAND WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPS WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY. HEAT INDICES COULD REACH
THE UPR 80S TO MID 90S SAT AFTERNOON.
THE SFC HI SHIFTS EAST AND THE UPR RDG STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED
SWD SAT NGT AS A MODEST SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ALONG THE
U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. A CDFNT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS FCST TO
REACH THE UPR MS VALLEY BY DAYBREAK...BUT BE TOO FAR AWAY TO BRING
ANY PCPN TO NE WI. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR AND MUGGY NGT
WITH A LIGHT SOUTH WIND AND PERHAPS MORE PATCHY FOG. FOR THE MOST
PART...LOOK FOR MIN TEMPS TO END UP IN THE 65-70 DEG RANGE. EVEN
THO THE BETTER MID-LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE PROGGED TO LIFT E-NE INTO
ONTARIO ON SUNDAY...THE CDFNT WL CONT TO PUSH EWD AND IMPINGE ON
N-CNTRL WI BY LATE AFTERNOON. TEMPS ALOFT ARE STILL QUITE WARM ON
SUNDAY (8H TEMPS +18 TO +21C) AND MODELS ARE SHOWING THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT TO RUN ALONG THE FNT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF
ONLY MENTIONING A SMALL CHC POP FOR N-CNTRL WI DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE REST OF NE WI WL SEE MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ANOTHER VERY WARM/HUMID DAY. MAX TEMPS TO RANGE
FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S N-CNTRL WI...TO AROUND 90 DEGS ACROSS
E-CNTRL WI.
THE CDFNT IS FCST TO STRETCH FROM NE TO SW WI BY 12Z MON AND EXIT
E-CNTRL WI AROUND MIDDAY MON. INSTABILITY DOES WEAKEN SUNDAY NGT
AS THE FNT APPROACHES...HOWEVER NE WI TO RESIDE UNDER THE
FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET WHICH WL ONLY ADD
TO THE LIFT ALONG WITH THE CDFNT. HI CHC OR LIKELY POPS STILL
LOOK GOOD IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THESE POPS
THEN SHIFTED SE ON MON. NRN WI SHOULD BE ABLE TO END THE PCPN CHCS
BY MON AFTERNOON AS THE FNT PULLS AWAY AND HI PRES STARTS TO
SETTLE SE TOWARD NRN SECTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. MAX TEMPS ON MON
WL BE VASTLY COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS WITH CLOUDS/PCPN/CDFNT IN
THE AREA. READINGS TO RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 70S NORTH...MID TO
UPR 70S SOUTH.
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR MON NGT AND TUE AS THE SFC
HI TO RESIDE FROM ONTARIO TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES. MIN TEMPS MON
NGT COULD DROP INTO THE MID TO UPR 40S OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL WI...
WHILE THE REST OF AREA WL SEE THE 50S. MAX TEMPS ON TUE WL BE
BELOW NORMAL WITH AROUND 70S DEGS LAKESIDE...LWR TO MID 70S NORTH
AND MID TO UPR 70S SOUTH.
A NEW AND STRONG-LOOKING SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TUE NGT TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY NEXT THU. DOWNSTREAM
UPR RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BRING AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO
WI WITH AN UPTICK IN BOTH ISEN LIFT AND MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...
A WRMFNT IS PROGGED TO LIFT NWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE
TIMING OF ALL THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS ARE STILL FAR FROM CERTAIN...
PCPN CHCS WL BE ON THE INCREASE TUE NGT THRU THU. MAX TEMPS AT
MID-WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO AT OR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
AFTER 15Z FRIDAY BUT IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......AK
AVIATION.......RDM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
632 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT
925-850MB AND WEAK 850-700MB QG FORCING PER THE 13.15Z RAP.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE 13.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE 13.15Z RAP AND 13.12Z NAM SHOW A CAP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THIS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH 06Z...AND AFTER 06Z CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NEXT WEAK IMPULSE MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
WISCONSIN. CONFINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
WARM AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 90S AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLATTENS RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BUILDS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST
925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO PLUS 25 TO PLUS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
FOCUS TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND AMPLIFY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE MODELS SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS HAS MAJOR IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
MAJORITY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
WI. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT RAIN FALLING FROM WEAK RADAR ECHOES ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL MN...BUT WITH CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 10000 FT AGL
AND LOSS OF SOLAR WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THINK TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. SOME LINGERING AFTERNOON CUMULUS
WILL DISSIPATE SOON AFTER SUNSET WITH SCT-BKN SKIES IN THE 12000
TO 15000 FT AGL LAYER OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE AFTERNOON CUMULUS AGAIN
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. LIGHT
WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KRST. AT KLSE...
LIGHT WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AND
THEN BACK TO THE WEST AFTER SUNRISE ON FRIDAY.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
308 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EASTERN UNITED STATES. SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN CANADA...AS
EVIDENT PER WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. LATEST 19Z SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. THIS IS PROVIDING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
THE 12.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUILDING SURFACE
RIDGE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT
THURSDAY. FIRST IMPULSE OVER-TOPPING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN BY 18Z
THURSDAY. LATEST HI-RESOLUTION ARW/NMM/12.17Z HRRR SUGGEST
CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH IMPULSE WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS IS
EVIDENT...WITH THE 12.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE WEAKENING ELEVATED
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE. HAVE CONTINUED THE
TREND OF SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND INTO
THE DAYTIME HOURS THURSDAY...AS THE 12.12Z MODELS SUGGEST WEAK
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG LINGERING SURFACE FRONT WITH IMPULSE
COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
FOCUS TURNS TO THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER-TOPPING THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE LATEST 12.12Z
GFS/NAM/ECMWF ARE WEAKER WITH 925-850MB MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/LIFT
WITH THIS IMPULSE. WITH THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT/OVER THE FORECAST
AREA...POSSIBILITY OF A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EXIST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE 12.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF INDICATE
925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO PLUS 25 TO PLUS 27 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
SUBSIDENCE AND 925MB TEMPERATURES...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH SOME LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RISING INTO
THE LOWER 90S.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE 12.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN FLATTENING UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND DEVELOP WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER STATES. SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS/SURFACE FEATURES INTO
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. FIRST IMPULSE
FLATTENS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. MAIN ENERGY WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINS
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. NEXT
FEATURE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
DIFFERENCES OCCUR BETWEEN THE 12.12Z GFS/ECMWF ON
STRENGTH/TIMING/PLACEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE. THE MODELS SUGGEST
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/TRANSPORT AND LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/SURFACE FEATURE. BASED ON TIMING/PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES WITH
THE MODELS...WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH AIRFIELDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOR POTENTIAL FOR BROKEN MID-LEVEL CEILINGS
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS WEAK SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
SMALL CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -SHRA...BUT TOO ISOLATED TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...MW
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY SHOW HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MID-LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION IS GENERATING A BAND OF CLOUDS OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WHERE A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION OVER NE
WI THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING AS A RESULT. LOOKING UPSTREAM...A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT...THUNDERSTORM TRENDS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THE
SHORT TERM.
TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL EXIT NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
THIS EVENING...WHICH SHOULD ENSURE DECREASING CLOUDS FOR THAT PART
OF THE STATE. OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS TO
START OUT THE EVENING...THEN WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS WILL BE AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIDING
SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTHEAST MANITOBA. THE SHORTWAVE ITSELF WILL NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL LATE IN THE NIGHT OVER N-C WISCONSIN. WILL HAVE A
DECENT AMOUNT OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD
OF THE WAVE...SO WILL RAISE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. LOWS MAINLY IN
THE 60S.
THURSDAY...THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN DURING
THE MORNING HOURS...GIVING MOST LOCATION AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH. THEN
CONFIDENCE WANES IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE. SHOULD SEE SOME
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS A SURFACE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO ML
CAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT...BUT IF THAT SORT OF
DESTABILIZATION OCCURS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH CONVERGENCE TO SET
OFF STORMS. 0-6KM WIND SHEARS ARE AROUND 25 KTS...SO THINK STORMS
WILL BE RATHER PULSY IN NATURE. STILL COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS
DEVELOP THAT COULD CREATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL. BEST TIMING WOULD BE AFTER 3 PM. WARMER AND MORE HUMID WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
UPR RDG AXIS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IS FCST TO EXTEND NEWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK BEFORE RETROGRADING AND
WEAKENING TOWARD THE SW CONUS NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN SHIFT WL
ALLOW FOR THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES TO RUN ALONG THE NRN TIER OF
STATES AND ALLOW FOR A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS TO MOVE ACROSS WI. AFTER
THE INITIAL NW FLOW PCPN CHCS END FRI...THE PASSAGE OF A CDFNT
LATE SUNDAY INTO MON WL BRING THE NEXT CHC OF PCPN TO NE WI. A
STRONGER SYSTEM CONSISTING OF ANOTHER CDFNT AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROF REACHES THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A
HIGHER CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL
THRU SUNDAY...COOL A BIT BELOW NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN
BEGIN TO WARM THEREAFTER.
INITIAL PRE-FRONTAL TROF TO STILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF EXITING
E-CNTRL WI THU EVENING...THUS A CHC POP IS NECESSARY FOR THIS
LOCATION. MEANWHILE...THE PRIMARY CDFNT IS FCST TO DROP SE TOWARD
NRN WI LATER THU NGT AND INTRODUCE ANOTHER CHC OF SHWRS AND TSTMS.
IN ADDITION TO THE SFC BOUNDARIES...MODELS INDICATE A MODEST
SHORTAVE TROF MOVING SE THRU THE WRN GREAT LAKES ACCOMPANIED BY
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY. POPS IN BOTH LOCATIONS TO BE HELD IN
THE CHC CATEGORY FOR NOW. TEMPS TO REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE WITH
MINS IN THE LWR 60S NORTH...MID TO UPR 60S SOUTH.
THE CDFNT IS PROGGED TO CONT MOVING SE INTO WI ON FRI...ALTHO THE
MODELS DISAGREE WITH HOW FAST THE FNT WL ACTUALLY MOVE. THE NAM IS
SLOWER...BUT WITH THE NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...BELIEVE A
FASTER FRONTAL MOVEMENT MAKES MORE SENSE. PCPN COVERAGE IS ANOTHER
PROBLEM AS THE ATMOSPHERE WL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH CAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND LI`S DOWN TO AROUND -4. DESPITE THE INSTABILITY...
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEARBY...MODELS CONT TO
SHOW A LIMITED PCPN COVERAGE PRIMARILY DUE TO UPR HEIGHTS BUILDING
TOWARD WI AND PROVIDING A CAP TO INHIBIT TSTM GROWTH. SINCE NE WI
TO SIT ON THE EDGE OF THIS BUILDING CAP...PREFER TO KEEP CHC POPS
IN THE FCST. FRI WL BE A VERY WARM AND HUMID DAY WITH MAX TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE MID 80S NORTH AND ALONG LAKE MI...TO THE UPR 80S
TO LWR 90S ELSEWHERE.
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE CDFNT...CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A LINGERING SHWR OR STORM OVER SRN SECTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA FRI EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE UPR RDG WL CONT TO BUILD INTO WI
FRI NGT...ALONG WITH A WEAK SFC HI OVER THE GREAT LAKES. SKIES
SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED...WE
COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVRNGT. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE FROM
THE MID TO UPR 50S NORTH...LWR TO MID 60S SOUTH. THE UPR RDG WL
EXTEND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NEWD TO THE GREAT LAKES ON SAT
AND BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM/MUGGY DAY TO NE WI. THERE SHOULD BE A
SUFFICIENT CAP IN PLACE TO PREVENT ANY TSTMS FROM DEVELOPING
DESPITE THE INCREASED INSTABILITY. LOOK FOR MAX TEMPS TO AGAIN
RANGE FROM THE LWR TO MID 80S NORTH AND NEAR LAKE MI...UPR 80S TO
LWR 90S CNTRL/E-CTNRL WI.
THIS UPR RDG WL BEGIN TO LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF
PUSHES EWD ALONG THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER. WHILE SAT NGT WL REMAIN
DRY/MILD/MUGGY...THE SHORTWAVE TROF IS FCST TO MOVE INTO THE UPR
MS VALLEY ON SUNDAY...PRECEDED BY A CDFNT THAT COULD REACH NW WI
AS EARLY AS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF NE WI TO STAY DRY
THRU THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WL NEED TO MENTION A CHC OF SHWRS/TSTMS
FOR N-CNTRL WI...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY ALSO LOOKS TO
BE YET ANOTHER VERY WARM/HUMID DAY WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR TO
MID 80S NORTH/LAKESHORE...85-90 DEG RANGE ELSEWHERE.
THIS CDFNT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A FAST-MOVER...MAINLY DUE TO THE
REMNANTS OF THE UPR RDG TO OUR SOUTH. LATEST TIMING HAS THE FNT
REACHING CNTRL WI BY 12Z MON AND CLEARING E-CNTRL WI AROUND 18Z
MON. ANOTHER CONCERN WL BE A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROF/EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION MON AFTERNOON.
THERE WL BE A GOOD CHC FOR SHWRS/TSTMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA
SUNDAY NGT THRU MON MORNING WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHWRS
LINGERING OVER E-CNTRL WI INTO MON AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPS TO BE MUCH
COOLER ON MON WITH READINGS IN THE LWR 70S N-CNTRL...MID TO UPR
70S E-CNTRL WI.
A MODEST HI PRES IS FCST TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON TUE...THEREBY
BRINGING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO THE FCST AREA. PLENTY OF ISSUES
THEN HEADED INTO WED AS THE SFC HI DEPARTS...WAA DEVELOPS AND A
RATHER SHARP SHORTWAVE TROF ENTERS THE CNTRL CONUS. MODELS ARE ALL
OVER THE PLACE AS FAR AS TIMING OF PCPN CHCS INTO NE WI RANGING
FROM TUE NGT TO WED NGT. HAVE FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION FOR
NOW WHICH BRINGS PCPN CHCS TO THE ENTIRE REGION FOR THE TIME
BEING. TEMPS FOR TUE AND WED SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CDT WED AUG 12 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED MID CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN MAY
PRODUCE A SHOWER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO
SPARSE TO INCLUDE IN ANY TAF SITES. A PERIOD OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL FOLLOW THIS EVENING BEFORE CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN. A SHORTWAVE
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL MAINLY BE MID-LEVEL...BUT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SHORTWAVE...SO CIGS/VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY FALL IN ANY RAIN. ADDITIONAL
STORMS COULD FIRE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST WI.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....MPC
LONG TERM......KALLAS
AVIATION.......MPC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
MUCH OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES
THE REGION. THIS HIGH IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEBRASKA WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NORTH WELL INTO ONTARIO. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EAST TONIGHT AND BE OVER THE AREA SETTING UP THE
POSSIBILITY OF VALLEY FOG. THE 11.12Z NAM FORECAST SOUNDING FOR
KLSE LATE TONIGHT HAS LIGHT WINDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS ONLY UP
THROUGH ABOUT 3000 FEET AND WHILE IT SHOWS SATURATION OCCURRING AT
THE SURFACE...IT IMMEDIATELY BECOMES VERY DRY JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE. THE 11.17Z RAP FORECAST SOUNDING IS EVEN MORE PESSIMISTIC
AS IT DOES NOT SHOW SATURATION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND HAS A
3C TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD AT 12.11Z. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE
MENTION OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG IN THE FORECAST IN CASE THE NAM
SOUNDING ENDS UP BEING MORE CORRECT BUT WOULD TEND TO THE THINK
WITH THE LACK OF A DEEPER LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS AND SATURATION THAT
THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE FOG IN THE VALLEYS.
ALL THE 11.12Z MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD KEEPING THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE REGION LONGER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WHICH ENDS UP PUSHING THE SYSTEM CROSSING
CANADA FARTHER TO THE NORTH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK
SHORT WAVE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE MAIN SYSTEM BUT THIS SHOULD NOW
PASS EVEN FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. WITH THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL RIDGING...THE WEAK COLD FRONT HAS A HARD TIME WORKING SOUTH
AND ALL THE MODELS NOW SHOW THIS REMAINING TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND THE
FRONT STAYING TO THE NORTH...HAVE REMOVED THE RAIN CHANCES FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS STILL A TREND FOR THE UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOME
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST. THIS MAY ALLOW A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO TOP
THE RIDGE AXIS AND THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. IF THE
11.12Z GFS IS CORRECT...THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE SOME MODERATE PV
ADVECTION IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER AS IT COMES ACROSS THE REGION.
WHAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT THERE IS LOOKS TO WRAP AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AND ACTUALLY COME BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. OVERALL...THE SIGNAL LOOKS PRETTY WEAK FOR RAIN AS THE
FRONT TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND BOTH THE NAM AND 11.12Z
ECMWF KEEP THE AREA DRY WITH ANY RAIN OFF TO THE EAST. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST ROBUST WITH RAIN AND WILL HONOR ITS
SOLUTION WITH SOME 20 TO 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
THERE COULD BE SOME LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE EAST INTO
FRIDAY FROM THIS SYSTEM...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS TO BE DRY THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GET FLATTENED
WITH A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AS A POSITIVE TILT
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THE CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE TAIL OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTEND.
THE GFS AND 11.12Z GEM ESSENTIALLY SHOW THIS SYSTEM STAYING WELL
TO THE NORTH WHILE THE ECMWF IS STRONGER WITH THE TAIL END OF THE
SYSTEM AND BRINGS A DECENT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT SHOULD GET PUSHED INTO THE
AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ALL THE MODELS AT LEAST SHOW SOME RAIN
CHANCES WITH THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF HAVING THE MOST AND FOR NOW
WILL SHOW SOME 30 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT COMPLETELY THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE GFS
HANGS THE FRONT UP OVER THE AREA AND WOULD SUGGEST THERE WOULD BE
SOME ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY ON THAT SECONDARY SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WILL HONOR THE
GFS SOLUTION WITH SOME RAIN CHANCES FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015
CONFLICTING SIGNALS FOR FOG FORMATION MAKE FOR A TRICKY FORECAST
AT KLSE. POSITIVE FACTORS INCLUDE A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE
VALLEY FLOOR BY 12.12Z...CALM SURFACE WINDS WITH PERHAPS A WEAK
SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE FLOW...WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS TO NEAR 5000 FT
AGL...AND CLEAR SKIES. 12.04Z DEW POINT DEPRESSION WAS ALSO 5
DEGREES. NEGATIVE FACTORS INCLUDE A STRONGER NORTHERLY COMPONENT
TO THE WIND ALOFT AS SEEN ON THE RADAR WIND PROFILE...AND A DRY
AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE. ALL SAID...WILL MAINTAIN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF OCCURRENCE.
DRY AIR AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS WILL KEEP FOG FROM FORMING AT
KRST AND REMOVED 5SM IN MIST OVERNIGHT.
AFTER ANY FOG DISSIPATES WEDNESDAY MORNING...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
AT BOTH TAF SITES THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...04
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1230 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
RECENT 11-3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ARE NOW
SHOWING PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN
NEB PANHANDLE. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER...LIGHT
WINDS AND EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 F ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS. GIVEN SEVERAL
OBS INDICATING TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS LESS THAN 2 DEG F...ISSUED A
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH 15Z THIS AM. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
PERSISTENCE. THAT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TYPICAL WYOMING WEATHER FOR MID AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER TX/OK WILL YIELD A PERSISTENT FEED OF MONSOON MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE VERY LITTLE VARIATION IN
HIGHS FROM DAY TO DAY. IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG EARLY THIS AM AS NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MODEST
LLVL SATURATION AND THE HRRR KEEPS VISIBILITY HIGH. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL VORT MAX
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WYO. WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME PERIOD TO BE MORE
ACTIVE THAN THE REST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY BETTER DYNAMICS. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH LESS THAN
15 KTS OF H5 FLOW...BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD YIELD SOME CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH GFS PWATS OVER ONE INCH. THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME WARMER AND MORE CAPPED LATER IN THE WEEK...SO EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON THU/FRI. H7
TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +14 TO +16 C FROM ALL MODELS SUGGESTS A WARM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 F OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
ALL MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SLOWLY RETROGRADING
AND WEAKENING A BIT BY SUNDAY...AS ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME CONVECTION DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING MAY REACH THE UPPER
90S ON FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES PEAK BETWEEN 15C TO 18C. WITH
PW/S OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STILL NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...AND MAY SUPPRESS SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE TSTORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEVERE TSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SHOWING A SERIES OF STRONG COLD
FRONTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING ON TUESDAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES MAY BE AUTUMN-LIKE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING A SHALLOW BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY LOWERING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY HIGH PW/S ACROSS THE PLAINS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT POP
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW...BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
KEEP IN MIND THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF INDICATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
MAIN AVIATION FOCUS TODAY CENTERS ON THUNERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE COMBINES
WITH A PASSING WEATHER DISTURBANCE. CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE BLOSSOMING ACROSS THE REGION AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.
FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL SOUTHEAST WYOMING TERMINALS
ALONG WITH KBFF AND WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR TRENDS
FOR ANY POTENTIAL AMENDMENTS THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOVEMENT WILL
BE RELATIVELY SLOW SO HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE MAIN CONCERN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WITH SOME CLEARING ANTICIPATED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOG MAY BE A POTENTIAL AGAIN ACROSS THE WRN
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRFIELDS LATER TONIGHT...BUT AM NOT CONFIDENT
TO ADD IT IN JUST YET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH AND AFTN HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20-25 PCT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR EACH DAY GIVEN A
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL...EXPECT GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...CAH
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
637 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 627 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
RECENT 11-3.9 MICROMETER SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ARE NOW
SHOWING PATCHY FOG OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYO AND THE WESTERN
NEB PANHANDLE. DESPITE AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL CLOUD COVER...LIGHT
WINDS AND EXCELLENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60 F ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS. GIVEN SEVERAL
OBS INDICATING TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS LESS THAN 2 DEG F...ISSUED A
QUICK GRID UPDATE TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG ALONG/EAST OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE THROUGH 15Z THIS AM. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
PERSISTENCE. THAT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TYPICAL WYOMING WEATHER FOR MID AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER TX/OK WILL YIELD A PERSISTENT FEED OF MONSOON MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE VERY LITTLE VARIATION IN
HIGHS FROM DAY TO DAY. IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG EARLY THIS AM AS NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MODEST
LLVL SATURATION AND THE HRRR KEEPS VISIBILITY HIGH. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL VORT MAX
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WYO. WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME PERIOD TO BE MORE
ACTIVE THAN THE REST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY BETTER DYNAMICS. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH LESS THAN
15 KTS OF H5 FLOW...BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD YIELD SOME CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH GFS PWATS OVER ONE INCH. THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME WARMER AND MORE CAPPED LATER IN THE WEEK...SO EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON THU/FRI. H7
TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +14 TO +16 C FROM ALL MODELS SUGGESTS A WARM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 F OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
ALL MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SLOWLY RETROGRADING
AND WEAKENING A BIT BY SUNDAY...AS ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME CONVECTION DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING MAY REACH THE UPPER
90S ON FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES PEAK BETWEEN 15C TO 18C. WITH
PW/S OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STILL NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...AND MAY SUPPRESS SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE TSTORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEVERE TSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SHOWING A SERIES OF STRONG COLD
FRONTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING ON TUESDAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES MAY BE AUTUMN-LIKE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING A SHALLOW BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY LOWERING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY HIGH PW/S ACROSS THE PLAINS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT POP
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW...BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
KEEP IN MIND THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF INDICATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING SINCE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE. INCREASED VIS AND REMOVED
OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER A FEW TERMINALS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME LOW CIGS AND LIGHT MIST NEAR KSNY AND KBFF BETWEEN 10Z TO
15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH AND AFTN HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20-25 PCT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR EACH DAY GIVEN A
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL...EXPECT GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
244 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
PERSISTENCE. THAT IS THE NAME OF THE GAME THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD AS HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN TYPICAL WYOMING WEATHER FOR MID AUGUST...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER TX/OK WILL YIELD A PERSISTENT FEED OF MONSOON MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES WILL EXIST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE VERY LITTLE VARIATION IN
HIGHS FROM DAY TO DAY. IN THE NEAR TERM...DECIDED TO REMOVE MENTION
OF FOG EARLY THIS AM AS NAM/GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ONLY MODEST
LLVL SATURATION AND THE HRRR KEEPS VISIBILITY HIGH. SCATTERED STORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE THIS AFTERNOON...AND
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AFTER 00Z AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL VORT MAX
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WYO. WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME PERIOD TO BE MORE
ACTIVE THAN THE REST OF THE PERIOD GIVEN COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS AND
GENERALLY BETTER DYNAMICS. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED WITH LESS THAN
15 KTS OF H5 FLOW...BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS COULD YIELD SOME CONCERNS
FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH GFS PWATS OVER ONE INCH. THERMAL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BECOME WARMER AND MORE CAPPED LATER IN THE WEEK...SO EXPECT THE
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION TO BE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ON THU/FRI. H7
TEMPS AVERAGING AROUND +14 TO +16 C FROM ALL MODELS SUGGESTS A WARM
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 F OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
ALL MEDIUM TO LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH...CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...SLOWLY RETROGRADING
AND WEAKENING A BIT BY SUNDAY...AS ENERGY FROM THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC DIVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. UNTIL
THEN...EXPECT THE PERSISTENT WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND DAYTIME CONVECTION DUE TO
THE ADVECTION OF MONSOON MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY WITH
READINGS IN THE 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. PORTIONS
OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR EASTERN WYOMING MAY REACH THE UPPER
90S ON FRIDAY AS 700MB TEMPERATURES PEAK BETWEEN 15C TO 18C. WITH
PW/S OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...THERE WILL BE PLENTY
OF MOISTURE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTORMS TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER...STILL NOT
CONFIDENT ON THE COVERAGE ON SATURDAY DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL MIDLEVEL
SUBSIDENCE...AND MAY SUPPRESS SCATTERED CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THESE TSTORMS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. SEVERE TSTORMS APPEAR
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA.
MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS BETTER AGREEMENT AND ARE MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN NEXT WEEK. THE GFS HAS TRENDED
TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION...SHOWING A SERIES OF STRONG COLD
FRONTS FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. MODELS
SHOW A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING INTO WYOMING ON TUESDAY WITH A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
VERIFIES...TEMPERATURES MAY BE AUTUMN-LIKE BY NEXT WEDNESDAY.
COOLER AIR MAY SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AS EARLY AS MONDAY WITH
ALL MODELS SHOWING A SHALLOW BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I25 CORRIDOR. THE MAIN COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES POTENTIALLY LOWERING BELOW NORMAL. MODELS ARE
RELATIVELY DRY WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS
AND RELATIVELY HIGH PW/S ACROSS THE PLAINS...BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. KEPT POP
AROUND 20 PERCENT FOR NOW...BUT LOWERED TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
KEEP IN MIND THESE FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE STILL 10 TO 15
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT THE ECMWF INDICATES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE IN FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING SINCE WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW THE AIR TEMPERATURE. INCREASED VIS AND REMOVED
OVERCAST CONDITIONS OVER A FEW TERMINALS...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME LOW CIGS AND LIGHT MIST NEAR KSNY AND KBFF BETWEEN 10Z TO
15Z THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF IFR VIS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT WED AUG 12 2015
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WIND GUSTS LIKELY
TO REMAIN BELOW 25 MPH AND AFTN HUMIDITIES ABOVE 20-25 PCT. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR EACH DAY GIVEN A
TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN IN PLACE. BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS WILL
BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. AS USUAL...EXPECT GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
GROUND LIGHTNING.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...TJT
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...CLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1146 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FINED TUNED SHORT TERM POP/SKY/QPF GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST RADAR
AND SATELLITE TRENDS. ALSO...REINITIALIZED FRONT END OF FORECAST
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
CURRENTLY...
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.
REST OF TODAY...
HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TOMORROW...
500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER THAT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT
IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TONIGHT...BUT STILL AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. AGAIN...GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE TAF SITES...STORMS ARE PROBABLY JUST ABOUT DONE AT KCOS
FOR TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS EARLY AS 18Z. FOR KPUB...LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 08Z OR
09Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING SOUTH. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 21Z FRIDAY. FOR
KALS...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS HOUR. WILL CARRY THESE UNTIL ABOUT 08Z OR
09Z. STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
CURRENTLY...
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.
REST OF TODAY...
HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TOMORROW...
500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1107 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS PAST MIDNIGHT...WITH ACTIVITY WINDING DOWN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH AFTER THAT. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT...EXCEPT
IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS TO THE FLIGHT AREA. ACTIVITY MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WIDESPREAD
AS TONIGHT...BUT STILL AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. AGAIN...GENERALLY VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXCEPT IN PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE TAF SITES...STORMS ARE PROBABLY JUST ABOUT DONE AT KCOS
FOR TONIGHT BUT THEY WILL LIKELY BE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS EARLY AS 18Z. FOR KPUB...LOOK FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO PERSIST A WHILE LONGER...POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 08Z OR
09Z...BEFORE DISSIPATING AND PUSHING SOUTH. STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT OR NEAR THE SITE AGAIN AFTER ABOUT 21Z FRIDAY. FOR
KALS...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS POPPING OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS HOUR. WILL CARRY THESE UNTIL ABOUT 08Z OR
09Z. STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTER ABOUT 20Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...LW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1037 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
ADJUSTED SHORT TERM GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST PRECIPITATION
TRENDS. ALSO LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 557 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPDATED SHORT TERM POP/QPF/SKY COVER FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO PLAINS. ALSO
LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA TO REINITIALIZE FRONT END OF
FORECAST GRIDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
CURRENTLY...
AS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MONSOON PLUME IS OVER THE REGION. AT
2 PM...ISOLD TSRA ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE PLAINS WHILE
ISOLD TSRA WERE NOTED OVER THE MTNS AND UPPER SAN LUIS VALLEY.
CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
SOUTH DOWN THE PLAINS. TEMPS AT 2 PM WERE GENERALLY IN THE L/M90S
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S AND 80S
MTNS/VALLEYS. CAPES WERE QUITE HIGH OVER THE FAR E PLAINS WITH
VALUES 2500-3000 J/KG.
REST OF TODAY...
HRRR HAS BEEN PRETTY ACCURATE TODAY IN THAT IT WAS FORECASTING
CONVECTION TO INITIATE EARLY OVER THE PLAINS AND IT DID. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON
ALTHOUGH IT MAY NOT BE AS HEAVY AND EXTENSIVE AS HRRR INDICATES.
MAIN CONCERN OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE CG LIGHTNING...BUT SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CANT BE RULED OUT OVER THE FAR
E PLAINS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON....AS CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGH AND DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 60S.
CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY INCREASE. INSTABILITY
AS NOTED BY THE SPC MESO PAGE...IS CONSIDERABLY LESS OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR AND MTNS/VALLEYS.
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
2ND ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PER
GUIDANCE....DEVELOPING OVER THE GREATER PIKES PEAK REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LAST INTO THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS
BEFORE DECREASING LATE TONIGHT. ONE OR TWO STORMS MAY LAST INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BURN SCARS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING DUE TO THE LOCAL HEAVY RAIN THREAT.
TOMORROW...
500 MB HIGH WILL BE LOCATED OVER NW NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION UNDER WEAK N-NW FLOW ALOFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE REGION WITH 1.0 - 1.2"
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED ON THE PLAINS
TOMORROW SO EXPECT ONLY ISOLD CONVECTION OVER THE FAR E PLAINS
TOMORROW. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS WILL BE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GIVEN WEAK FLOW ALOFT SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. MAX TEMPS
TOMORROW WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAY...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE L/M90S PLAINS...80S EL PASO COUNTY AND 70S/80S MTNS.
/HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AS
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO SRN
CANADA OVER THE WEEKEND. A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER ACROSS THE FAR SE
PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING BUT COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL QUICKLY
DIMINISH AS NOCTURNAL PROCESSES BECOME DOMINANT. SATURDAY LOOKS TO
BE A QUITE DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH STILL IN
PLACE...WITH SUBSIDENCE AND WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT LIMITING
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. EXPECT TO SEE ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIMITED TO THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS SATURDAY.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING THROUGH SRN CANADA WILL DROP A COLD FRONT
DOWN THROUGH THE CWA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...WITH SE UPSLOPE FLOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL FIRE OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE
MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL
STEERING WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE NW. HEADING INTO MONDAY...THE GFS
STALLS THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN SRN CO AND NRN NM WHILE THE
ECMWF IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE PUSHING THE BOUNDARY INTO TX AND
OKLAHOMA...WITH THE GFS SHOWING HIGHER MID LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FIELDS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AS WESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE ALOFT AND MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...LOWERING DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S. A DRY LINE WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS AND COULD POTENTIALLY
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STRONGER STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVING ACROSS THE
NRN TIER...BUT OVERALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO
BE LIMITED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT WEEK. LUKINBEAL
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 315 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
KCOS AND KPUB WILL PROBABLY SEE SOME TSRA/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EARLY EVENING...WITH SKIES THEN
CLEARING. OVERALL ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. CONVECTION TOMORROW SHOULD BE CONFINED
TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...AL/HODANISH
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
120 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OFF THE DELMARVA CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS
APPROACHING FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN NY. HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE U40S TO
U50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME L60S IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON
VALLEY.
SOME SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS ON THE TIMING OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO...THE SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE STARTED
AFTER 10Z/6 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS KEPT IN THE FCST IN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN VT/BERKSHIRES. LOW TEMPS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH U40S TO L50S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...SOME UPPER 80S SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 80 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO THE REGION.
ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING FRIDAY
EVENING BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD
PREVENT A CLEAR SKY. LIGHT BUT POTENTIALLY STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
VERY EXTREME EITHER...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT SOME CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER LOOSE AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...PLUS NOT MUCH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL...THE INSTABILITY AND EVEN THE WEAK
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PULSE TO
STRONG LEVELS...MAYBE APPROACHING SEVERE BUT THE PREDOMINANT MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT.
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT INDICATING IT AT THIS TIME
AS THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
CHANCES...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
FRONT...SINCE THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH COOLING IF ANY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER FEATURING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWARD AT THE
SURFACE...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BE PUMPING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BECOMING INCREASINGLY HUMID...DRY WEATHER
IS MAINLY EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE REGION
EXPERIENCING THE STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SCATTERED
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SEVERE STORMS LOOKING ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE REGARDING
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING
FASTER AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE REGION AND THE ECMWF SLOWING IT
DOWN/POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE DISCREPANCIES...ALTHOUGH HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER.
THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN
OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT FOR LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT COULD CONTINUE THE 90 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND OF A RETURN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST...IF NOT THE
HOTTEST...TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR HOW THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE EVOLVES AS WE GO FORWARD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...BEFORE
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT FOR ALL SITES AND WINDS HAVE BECOME CALM
TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS EXPECTED AT KGFL/KPSF
OVERNIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY...SCT CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5 KFT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP DURING DIURNAL HEATING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT KGFL/KALB AND PERHAPS KPSF.
S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID MORNING...WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.
THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE WITH MAINLY BKN-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SATURDAY FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SINK JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 55 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 75 TO 100 PERCENT..
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH AT LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...AND
FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND A COLD FRONT.
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY...AND NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...KL/11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
114 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS THIS MORNING. A WARM
FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 113 AM EDT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE REGION
OFF THE DELMARA CORRIDOR THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND SE ONTARIO. SOME HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ACROSS NRN NY. HOWEVER...FURTHER EAST MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS ARE ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE U40S TO U50S...EXCEPT FOR SOME L60S IN
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID HUDSON VALLEY.
SOME SLIGHT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS ON THE TIMING OF
THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. ALSO...THE SLIGHT CHC POPS WERE STARTED
AFTER 10Z/6 AM BASED ON THE LATEST HRRR FOR THE WARM ADVECTION
SHOWERS. SOME PATCHY FOG WAS KEPT IN THE FCST IN THE UPPER HUDSON
VALLEY/LAKE GEORGE REGION/SRN VT/BERKSHIRES. LOW TEMPS WERE
SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED BASED ON THE TRENDS WITH U40S TO L50S NORTH OF
THE CAPITAL REGION...AND M50S TO AROUND 60F FROM THE CAPITAL
REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER ENERGY AND SOME DEEPER MOISTURE APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH
INCREASING WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM. LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST...AND WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION AND SUNSHINE...HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...SOME UPPER 80S SOUTHERN AREAS AND AROUND 80 SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM
IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS WITH A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO THE REGION.
ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE DURING FRIDAY
EVENING BUT SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS COULD
PREVENT A CLEAR SKY. LIGHT BUT POTENTIALLY STEADY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW COULD PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
BELOW THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AROUND 60 SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH
THE REGION WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING. THE INSTABILITY IS NOT
VERY EXTREME EITHER...BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S WILL SUPPORT SOME CAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG IN SOME AREAS.
THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ALONG THE FRONT IS RATHER LOOSE AND
THERE IS NOT MUCH LOW LEVEL JET FORCING...PLUS NOT MUCH OF AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. STILL...THE INSTABILITY AND EVEN THE WEAK
FORCING SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PULSE TO
STRONG LEVELS...MAYBE APPROACHING SEVERE BUT THE PREDOMINANT MODE
OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUB SEVERE...BUT WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON
IT.
LINGERING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE WEAK
COLD FRONT SHOULD DRIFT JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT...BUT NOT INDICATING IT AT THIS TIME
AS THE ULTIMATE POSITION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
CHANCES...BUT CURRENT CONSENSUS SUGGESTS DRY FOR THE MOST PART
SUNDAY WITH JUST SLIGHT DRYING AT LOW LEVELS BEHIND THE
FRONT...SINCE THERE REALLY IS NOT MUCH COOLING IF ANY BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 80S...LOWER TO MID 80S SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A RETURN TO SUMMER-
LIKE WEATHER FEATURING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE UNDERNEATH
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING NORTHWARD AT THE
SURFACE...AND INCREASING HEIGHTS/RIDGING ALOFT. WITH THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH...THE REGION WILL BE
UNDERNEATH A SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW THAT WILL BE PUMPING HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE BECOMING INCREASINGLY HUMID...DRY WEATHER
IS MAINLY EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE REGION
EXPERIENCING THE STRONG INFLUENCE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH
PRESSURE.
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE PLACED SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MONDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SCATTERED
WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE...WITH SEVERE STORMS LOOKING ISOLATED AT BEST GIVEN
WEAK SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGION.
BEYOND TUESDAY...LONG RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE REGARDING
WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING
FASTER AND PUSHING IT THROUGH THE REGION AND THE ECMWF SLOWING IT
DOWN/POTENTIALLY STALLING ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE DISCREPANCIES...ALTHOUGH HAVE SIDED WITH THE SLOWER ECMWF
SOLUTION GIVEN THE FACT THAT SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER.
THE MAIN WEATHER FACTOR OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE THE RETURN
OF SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY ACROSS THE REGION TO END THE WEEKEND AND
FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BE WELL INTO THE 80S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S...EXCEPT FOR LOW TO
MID 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK SLIGHTLY COOLER RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO
MID 80S...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE HINTS OF STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING THAT COULD CONTINUE THE 90 DEGREE WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE
MID 60S TO UPPER 60S SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE ARE SIGNALS IN THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND OF A RETURN TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING...WHICH
WOULD POTENTIALLY BRING SOME OF THE HOTTEST...IF NOT THE
HOTTEST...TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR. THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
MONITOR HOW THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE EVOLVES AS WE GO FORWARD THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILD
IN OVERNIGHT...BEFORE A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT FOR ALL SITES AND WINDS WILL BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING. SOME MVFR/IFR FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT FOR
KGFL/KPSF...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE.
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY...SCT CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5 KFT LOOKS TO
DEVELOP DURING DIURNAL HEATING BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT KGFL/KALB AND
PERHAPS KPSF. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID
MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL AND
KALB.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY ON FRIDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO SATURDAY FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
COLD FRONT WILL SINK JUST SOUTH OF OUR REGION SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 55 PERCENT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE 75 TO 100 PERCENT..
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH AT LESS THAN 15 MPH TONIGHT...AND
FROM THE SOUTH AT 15 MPH OR LESS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO WEST AT 15 MPH OR LESS SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL BE OVER THE HYDRO SERVICE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. OUR NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT...AND A COLD FRONT.
THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE WARM FRONT WILL BE FROM THE
MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST ON FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL
GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL...FLOWS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER FROM THE RAINFALL ON
TUESDAY...AND NO WIDESPREAD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED ON THE RIVERS
AND STREAMS THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS/WASULA/RCW
NEAR TERM...WASULA/RCW
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...FRUGIS/KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
149 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR I-96. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
WARM TO HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM KENT COUNTY TO
THE LAKE SHORE. THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASED
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT (AS SHOWN BY THE 04Z RAP MODEL). THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES I-94 (THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 5 AM AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
DETROIT AREA). SO I UPDATED TO LIKELY POP NEAR GRR TILL 3 AM THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE TO CHANCE POP AS THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
AZO/BTL AREA TOWARD MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES POPS 30/40 PCT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRATIFIED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AFTER
06Z. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY AS THE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH
TIME. OVERALL...STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
AS THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE HRRR IS NOT
BULLISH AT ALL WITH FUTURE CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE FEEDS IN...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OVERALL...I`M NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND WON`T PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...600 J/K SBCAPE IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH. PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. LATEST HRRR DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING A BIT FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO NEAR I-96. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK
LOW TOO WITH ONLY 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE ZERO DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM GUIDANCE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE REACHING
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
WE ARE LOOKING AT TWO TO POSSIBLY THREE PERIOD WHERE A FEW SHOWERS
AND/OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 06Z SAT. THE FIRST PERIOD
IS BETWEEN NOW AND 12Z THIS MORNING. SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IS POPPING UP WEST OF KGRR AND KAZO...AND SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH THE ERN TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. SOME MVFR WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WITH A QUICK DROP TO IFR NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EITHER.
SKIES WILL SCATTER A BIT THEN THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE WEAK FRONT IN THE AREA...SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS COULD POP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS
TO SEE THESE WILL BE AT KLAN AND KJXN AWAY FROM THE INFLUENCE OF
THE WSW WINDS OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THESE WILL LIKELY BE POSSIBLE
UNTIL ABOUT 00Z OR SO BEFORE DIMINISHING.
FINALLY A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 01Z ACROSS THE
NW...AND THEN SPREAD SE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER
WAVE PASSING THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
MATCHED UP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WAVES AROUND 4 FEET TOWARDS LUDINGTON BUILD SOUTH
WITH TIME. SO...THE BHS AND SCA ARE CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 500 AM.
WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WE WILL DECIDE IF WE CAN DROP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES OR EXTEND THEM INTO THE MORNING.
A CORE OF WIND WILL WORK DOWN THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT WITH A WIND
MAX AROUND 2000FT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE KMKG BUFKIT OVERVIEWS
ARRIVING THERE AROUND 06Z. IT REACHES SOUTH HAVEN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY NEED TO CARRY THE
HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT IT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
4-5 ZONES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI
139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT NEAR I-96. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. A
WARM TO HOT WEEKEND IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAD RECENTLY DEVELOPED FROM KENT COUNTY TO
THE LAKE SHORE. THAT IS ASSOICATED WITH AN AREA OF INCREASED
1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT (AS SHOWN BY THE 04Z RAP MODEL). THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION SHOULD SLOWLY SINK SOUTH WITH TIME AND WEAKEN
AS IT APPROACHES I-94 (THE 1000/850 MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS
DECREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER 5 AM AND SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
DETROIT AREA). SO I UPDATED TO LIKELY POP NEAR GRR TILL 3 AM THEN
SLOWLY DECREASE TO CHANCE POP AS THE CONVECTION REACHES THE
AZO/BTL AREA TOWARD MORNING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCES POPS 30/40 PCT TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STRATIFIED THE CHANCES FOR PRECIP MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTH THROUGH 06Z...AND THEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AFTER
06Z. THIS WAS DONE MAINLY AS THE CONVECTION WILL BE TIED TO THE
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET THAT WILL BE SLIPPING SOUTH AND WEAKENING WITH
TIME. OVERALL...STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH RAIN CHANCES FOR TONIGHT
AS THE EVENING CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED ALREADY AND THE HRRR IS NOT
BULLISH AT ALL WITH FUTURE CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY
THAT CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE
MOISTURE FEEDS IN...SO WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
OVERALL...I`M NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LLJ ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SYSTEM IS VERY WEAK AND WON`T PROVIDE MUCH SUPPORT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...600 J/K SBCAPE IS WHAT THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO
WORK WITH. PWATS ARE NOT OVERLY HIGH EITHER. LATEST HRRR DOESN/T
SHOW MUCH PCPN THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER...THERE IS
A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT MODELS SHOW STRENGTHENING A BIT FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT SETTLES TO NEAR I-96. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN LOOKS TO BE
OVER THE EASTERN CWA FRIDAY MID DAY. CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS LOOK
LOW TOO WITH ONLY 25-30 KTS OF SHEAR AVAILABLE. PCPN CHANCES WILL
DWINDLE LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WON/T BE QUITE ZERO DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER RIDGING WILL BRING FAIR AND WARM WEATHER FOR SUNDAY WITH
HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS CANADA BRINGS A TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO MICHIGAN BY
TUESDAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS ARE THAT THE FRONT CLEARS CLEARS THE
FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A LULL IN THE PRECIP CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY AS SFC RIDGING IS IN CONTROL.
DECIDED TO LOWER POPS FROM GUIDANCE A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS BEST MID
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE NORTH OR WEST OF LOWER
MICHIGAN...ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE REACHING
WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
ESSENTIALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THE
CHANCES ARE SOMEWHAT SMALL...20-40 PCT. AT THIS POINT GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN STORMS OCCURRING CARRIED VCTS WORDING IN THE TAFS
OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS OF AROUND 5000FT WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND MAY LOWER TO AROUND 3500FT. ON FRIDAY EXPECTING WINDS
OFF THE LAKE TO POTENTIALLY CLEAR THINGS OUT A BIT FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 1005 PM EDT THU AUG 13 2015
MATCHED UP THE BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT WITH THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY AS WAVES AROUND 4 FEET TOWARDS LUDINGTON BUILD SOUTH
WITH TIME. SO...THE BHS AND SCA ARE CURRENTLY OUT THROUGH 500 AM.
WITH THE EARLY MORNING FORECAST WE WILL DECIDE IF WE CAN DROP THE
CURRENT HEADLINES OR EXTEND THEM INTO THE MORNING.
A CORE OF WIND WILL WORK DOWN THE LAKESHORE TONIGHT WITH A WIND
MAX AROUND 2000FT. THIS CAN BE SEEN IN THE KMKG BUFKIT OVERVIEWS
ARRIVING THERE AROUND 06Z. IT REACHES SOUTH HAVEN TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT WE MAY NEED TO CARRY THE
HEADLINES INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND SHIFT IT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN
4-5 ZONES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT WED AUG 12 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LATE TONIGHT INTO THU COULD PRODUCE SOME
RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS/FLOODING ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. BETTER CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL ARRIVE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND THEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE OVER 1.50
INCHES THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SUPPORTING A BETTER CHANCE FOR DECENT
RAINFALL TOTALS. 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN STORMS.
&&
.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
MIZ037-043-050-056-064.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LMZ845>849.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WDM
SYNOPSIS...04
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...EBW
MARINE...DUKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
434 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
TWO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD HEAT
INDICES...WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF ISOLD TSRA ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONT SAGGING S/SE ACROSS MPX NORTH/NE CWA.
ANY CLDS THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE WHICH BRINGS
FULL SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CUMULUS CLDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
NOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NOON WITH
DEW PTS ARND 65-70. THIS LEADS TO HEAT INDICES OVER 90 DEGREES BY
LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTN.
EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC MN
WHERE ACTUAL TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MORNING
HWO WILL THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE
AFTN...WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SOME OF THE CAMS DUE SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SAGS TO THE S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI. DUE TO THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE LOWEST 10K... THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH BASES. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS /WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ MOVES OVER MN/WC WI. I CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE VERY ISOLD. NO CHGS OVERNIGHT AS ANY TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS WARM AND HUMID BUT A FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY SPOTS IN MINNESOTA - WISCONSIN SHOULD BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN FACT...GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SMILIER VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY COULD BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY - SO WE MIGHT NEED TO BOOST OUR SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN FAIRLY VANILLA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS OR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS THE PAST 2.5 MONTHS.
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WE HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNCAPPED AND CLOSER TO THE JET...SO
WE`RE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY DOSE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH VERY
FEW 90S OR 70S. THE TWIN CITIES HAS A CHANCE TO DOUBLE ITS NUMBER
OF 90S FOR THE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE ONLY 90S
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR CAME ON JUNE 9TH AND JULY 17TH. ST. CLOUD
HAS ONLY HAD ONE 90 /JUNE 9TH/ AND EAU CLAIRE HAS YET TO OBSERVE A
90 DEGREE DAY.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO END UP BEING WARM GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL
TIMING...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CLOUD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE FRONT TAKES A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA. THIS
LEAVES US WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING...AND
THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER/DRIER AND
SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD GET
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
VERY LITTLE CHG FROM PREVIOUS TAF WITH GOOD AVIATION CONDS THRU
THE NEXT 24 HRS. ONLY A LOW CHC OF MVFR VSBY THIS MORNING DUE TO
FOG/BR FORMATION ARND SUNRISE. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SW-WSW ARND
5-9 KTS.
KMSP...
NO AVIATION CONCERNS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDS THRU THE 30
HR PERIOD. SW-WSW WINDS OF 5-9 KTS WILL CONTINUE.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...CHC MVFR IN TSRA. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS BECMG W.
MON...VFR. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
312 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
SHORT TERM IMPACTS...VERY HOT TODAY...AND...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A
STORM SYSTEM OVER THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE BEGINNING OF
THE RIDGE BREAKDOWN...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRING VERY HOT MERCURY READINGS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS EAST COULD EASILY REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS.
LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...BILLINGS
COMES IN AT 102...MILES CITY AT 105 AND SHERIDAN AT 103. OF THOSE
THREE LOCALES...MILES CITY IS THE ONE THAT COULD COME THE CLOSEST
TO APPROACHING A RECORD TODAY WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RIDE
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON STORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST. HRRR SURFACE PRECIP PROGS
SHOW NICE COVERAGE OF PULSE TYPE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION
BY 20 UTC...AND POTENTIALLY INTO BILLINGS BY 22 UTC. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE WET AND WINDY IN NATURE...AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH AN
INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 1 AM
LOCAL TIME AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY INITIATE SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WILL
NOT RULE OUT AN ACTIVE SPOT FORECAST DAY ON SATURDAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STARTS.
THE FLOW WILL START TO TURN ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY STILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BUT THEN GO DOWN TO MORE TOLERABLE READINGS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUSTY AND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WHICH PUTS US RIGHT AT THE CUTOFF FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TOOK A LOOK AT SOME CIPS GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
WIND PROPERTIES IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME
LAGGED GUIDANCE FOR 850 MB WINDS DO NOT INDICATE SOUTHERLY LLJ
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. FURTHER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CASES WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS IN THE SAME PORTION OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR ONE MORE SHIFT IN LIEU OF STRONGLY
WORDED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER. COORDINATED ALL OF THIS WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS AND SPC. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO THE BE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
LINGER IN THE EAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE INHERITED POPS FOR SUNDAY.
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO NORMAL FOR
THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH FOR NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING AS WOULD BE PREFERRED. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS AND BROADBRUSHING. THE EC IS
FASTER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS. ALSO...BOTH
ARE TRENDING MORE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE FRONT. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK IT WILL SOMEWHAT BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE RAINFALL MOVES OUT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
SOME LOCALLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON. REIMER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 068/090 056/079 056/085 058/080 056/081 057/081
3/T 21/N 11/B 11/U 23/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 093 057/086 048/079 048/084 052/078 049/080 051/080
3/T 22/T 00/U 11/U 23/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 102 065/092 055/082 055/089 057/083 054/083 055/083
2/T 21/B 11/B 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 105 071/091 057/080 056/086 060/084 056/083 057/083
1/G 21/N 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 22/T
4BQ 102 065/092 058/081 057/084 059/086 057/082 057/082
1/G 22/T 11/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 23/T
BHK 100 066/091 055/078 053/082 057/082 055/080 054/081
1/U 22/T 11/B 13/T 34/T 43/T 32/T
SHR 100 062/093 054/081 053/087 055/083 051/080 053/080
2/T 21/B 11/B 21/B 23/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
107 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST EARLIER TO CANCEL THE WATCH. WILL PROBABLY
REMOVE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT...OR AT
THE VERY LEAST...REDUCE THEM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SHORT TERM MODELS
(HRRR/RAP) HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH TROUGH/WEAK FRONT IN THE
NEBRASKA SANDHILLS BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY WEAK UPPER DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY
ADVECTION...INCREASING LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND WEAKENING CAP.
HAVEN/T SEE STRONG CU DEVELOPMENT YET BUT DO BELIEVE IT WILL OCCUR
AND THOSE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN HAVE OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY MID EVENING. BELIEVE THE HRRR DEPICTION IS A BIT
QUICK TIMING WISE AND OPTED TO SLOW THINGS DOWN A COUPLE HOURS.
MAJORITY OF THESE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE...ALTHOUGH CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS...BUT A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MAIN HAZARD SHOULD BE STRONG WINDS.
HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCE A BIT BUT WANE THEM IN THE
WESTERN AREAS BY MIDNIGHT. SOME HINTS OF SOME MORE LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION IN THE COLUMBUS AREA WITH MID LEVEL SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DRIFTING SOUTH. NOT TAKING THAT OFF THE TABLE YET AND HAVE KEPT LATE
NIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EAST...AND LINGERED THEM INTO
EARLY FRIDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONALLY WARM THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD BE IN FULL FORCE BY AFTERNOON. A TYPICAL MID AUGUST DAY.
WINDS WILL BE STEADY FROM THE SOUTH BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG
AS TODAY...A DAY WE HAVE A FEW PLACES GUST TO 25 MPH AT TIMES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE WARMER SIDE. A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES.
WINDS FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL
WAVE MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT APPROACH THE
FORECAST AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE WILL BE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE
FRONT APPROACHES. THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS WITH HOW FAR THE FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST BEFORE
STALLING AND WEAKENING. EITHER WAY THE FRONT SHOULD STILL BE IN THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE MAIN UPPER WAVE
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO SAG TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY AND THERE IS STILL A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND AT
LEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE SOME
DIFFERENCES. THE ECMWF BRINGS AN UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THIS TIME FRAME WHILE THE GFS KEEPS IT TO THE WEST AND HAS A
STRONGER UPPER LOW. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...BUT THE ECMWF WOULD
INDICATE THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DRY FOR THURSDAY. HAVE
KEPT SOME POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD...EXCEPT THURSDAY. WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS HAVE TRIED NOT TO MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS ANY STORMS TO THE WEST HAVE PUSHED
SOUTH AND SHOULD NOT INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER ANY LONGER FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HEINLEIN
SHORT TERM...NOAA/NWS/MORITZ
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...HEINLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A BACKDOOR FRONT/CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SWD THROUGH ERN NM OVERNIGHT. NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINING WITH
INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCT CONVECTION OVER FAR
NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH APPROX 09Z. BOUNDARY APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT TO
KSAF AND KABQ AFTER 08Z WITH A BRIEF SE/EAST WIND SHIFT. AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS FEATURE LATE
TONIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS. THE INCREASED
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SCT AFTERNOON -TSRAS OVER THE NE THIRD OF
THE STATE FRIDAY WITH ISOLD STORMS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY
MOUNTAINS.
33
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...929 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015...
.UPDATE...
OUTFLOW FROM UNION COUNTY STORMS HAS SPARKED SOME ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT INTO HARDING COUNTY...AND THERE IS ISOLD CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE SANGRES MOVG S-SEWD FROM COLORADO. RAP NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THE HRRR BRINGING A SFC BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH INTO
THE ERN PLAINS...AND SNUGGLING IT UP ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
AS FAR SOUTH AS I-40 LATER TONIGHT. CONSEQUENTLY STRETCHED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. ALTHOUGH CURRENT
CONVECTION WANING...ANOTHER BATCH OF STORMS GOING IN CENTRAL CO TO
ROTATE TWD NM. UPDATED ZFP ALREADY TRANSMITTED.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU AUG 13 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A RELATIVELY QUIET DAY TODAY...STORMS SHOULD INCREASE OVER
THE NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY THANKS TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
INCREASING MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE AREA. OVER THE
WEEKEND...GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM BACK INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...INCREASING STORM COVERAGE FURTHER. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
WILL HELP NUDGE THAT MOISTURE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THUS...BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MOUNTAIN AREAS SHOULD BE FAVORED FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THUS...LOOK FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THEREAFTER...FORECAST MODELS DIVERGE...THUS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE CHUSKA MTNS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST NM AS WELL WHERE A WEAK BOUNDARY BROUGHT IN
HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING. THE NE WILL BE THE FAVORED AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER HIGH IS PARKED SQUARELY OVER NM TODAY...
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
MOST LOCALES...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE A FEW SITES MAY NEAR
RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THE UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER NM ON
FRIDAY... HOWEVER...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SPARK SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE NE
PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND WILL BACK UP TO THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS BY THE AFTERNOON. INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH UPSLOPE FLOW WILL INCREASE PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST QUARTER OR SO OF THE STATE. MAINLY ISOLATED COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BACK UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...THUS INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND PERHAPS MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS IN THE
LATE AFTN/EVE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD PUSH MOISTURE THROUGH THE
GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...SETTING THE STAGE FOR MORE STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...AREAS ALONG AND JUST EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL REMAIN FAVORED AS GULF MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD AND THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO
SHIFT WESTWARD OVER ARIZONA. COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE
THE MAIN DRIVER FOR STORMS ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS AREAS WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. OTHERWISE STORM MOTION ON SUNDAY WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM N TO S OR NE TO SW.
MODEL DIFFERENCE ARISE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR MONDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD ELONGATE SOMEWHAT OVER AZ/NM AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
DIVES DOWN THE PAC NW COAST. HOW FAST THIS SYSTEM MOVES INLAND AND
HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL BE REMAINS IN QUESTION AND THE 12Z MODEL
SUITE DIVERGES FURTHER. THE EC SHOWS A WEAKLY CLOSED LOW/OPEN
TROUGH SLIDING TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES BY LATE TUESDAY...
WHEREAS AT THE SAME TIME...THE GFS SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER CLOSED
LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON...AND THE CANADIAN IS SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN. THUS...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS
LOW...THOUGH ONCE THE LOW/TROUGH SLIDES EASTWARD...EXPECT A DRY
SLOT TO NUDGE INTO AT LEAST NW NM WHICH SHOULD FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A FEW LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR FAVORING THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS...ALTHOUGH WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINTS WILL BE
MINIMAL AND SPOTTY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZES
AREAWIDE EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FRIDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW USHERS IN MOISTURE THAT
WILL INCREASE DEWPOINTS AND MIN RH VALUES. STORM ACTIVITY WILL FAVOR
MOSTLY AREAS ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD BECAUSE OF UPSLOPE
FLOW. HAINES VALUES WILL BE IN THE 4 AND 5 READINGS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART WITH NEAR RECORD NUMBERS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST.
AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS WESTWARD...FURTHER MOISTURE
WILL FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THAT WILL ALLOW STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL NM OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH
HIGHER DEWPOINTS. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE LIMITED STORM ACTIVITY
BECAUSE OF DRIER AIR. STEERING FLOW OF STORMS WILL GENERALLY BE NE
TO SW. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO TREND COOLER BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. 4 AND 5 HAINES VALUES WILL HOLD STEADY OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY BUT TREND
DOWNWARD BY SUNDAY. FURTHER STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EXPECTED EAST
AND CENTRAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WEAKENS
WEST OF NM BEFORE A DOWNTREND IN ACTIVITY MIDWEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW HEADS TOWARD THE GREAT BASIN.
POOR VENT RATES FRIDAY...FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE EXCEPT ESTANCIA
VALLEY ON SATURDAY...IMPROVING ACROSS THE WEST SUNDAY...THEN EASTERN
AREAS BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
32
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
327 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THEN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE GOING
FORWARD ALTHOUGH I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THATS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS NEW YORK. CURRENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM 4 KM CAPTURE THIS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS AND
BRING THE SHOWERS ACROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10Z. SO I BUMPED UP
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LOW CHANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ERODE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND
SHOULDN`T IMPACT MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKIES ARE ALL IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
COSMETIC CHANGES TO MATCH SURFACE CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1044 PM EDT THURSDAY... FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY AND DEW POINTS CREEPING UP A BIT...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR SOME OF THE DATA THAT SUGGESTS DEW POINTS GETTING WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATION OF INSTABILITY AND
MAY BE DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION A BIT TOO MUCH OVER
THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT DOES
NOT MOVE IN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS FORCING WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED...SO THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. WILL
WORD IT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW
WITH THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT THAT TIME SO CAN SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED IN NATURE. FLOW ALOFT IS EVEN WEAKER THAN
FRIDAY...SO PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION ENDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. UNTIL
THEN...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 324 AM EDT FRIDAY...OVERALL TREND IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE TO
MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS.
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG NORTH PACIFIC 500MB RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTH OF
ALASKA IN 00Z GFS (AND PREVIOUS RUNS) WILL FAVOR NWRN CONUS MID-
LEVEL TROUGH AND BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN THE MEAN ALONG THE U.S.
EAST COAST. DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVERHEAD PROVIDES A WARM NIGHT SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOWER 70S -- ALONG WITH MID 60S
DEWPOINTS. MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND +18C IN ECMWF AND GFS SUPPORTING
VALLEY HIGHS 88-92F MONDAY AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL RIDGE BRIEFLY
BREAKS DOWN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WITH WEAK FRONTAL ZONE
SHIFTING SEWD FROM ONTARIO BRINGING BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY (40-50 POPS). THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S. FRONT QUICKLY
DISSIPATES/WASHES OUT AND NEXT SURGE OF LOW-LEVEL SWLY FLOW AND
HIGHER HUMIDITY BRINGS HIGH TEMPS BACK INTO THE MID TO POSSIBLE
UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HRS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE EARLY AM LIFR FOG AT MPV
08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
PASSING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DECAYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
SHOWER AT MSS 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH
TIMING/OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT LOCATION
PRECLUDING INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MAINLY SCT-BKN050-070
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8-10KTS 16-23Z AND
THEN GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL BR/FG IS
POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV 06-12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
156 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
OVERNIGHT. THE THREAT FOR MORE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. DRIER WEATHER
RETURNS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT THEN CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S ON SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 154 AM EDT FRIDAY...FORECAST IS IN DECENT SHAPE GOING
FORWARD ALTHOUGH I WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED THE CHANCES FOR SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEW YORK IN THE EARLY MORNING.
WITH THE SHORTWAVE THATS CURRENTLY MOVING JUST EAST OF LAKE HURON
THERE AREA A FEW SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS NEW YORK. CURRENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR AND NAM 4 KM CAPTURE THIS IN INITIAL CONDITIONS AND
BRING THE SHOWERS ACROSS JUST NORTH OF LAKE ONTARIO THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING AND INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK BY 10Z. SO I BUMPED UP
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TO LOW CHANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS SHOULD ERODE WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND
SHOULDN`T IMPACT MUCH OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/SKIES ARE ALL IN GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY SOME
COSMETIC CHANGES TO MATCH SURFACE CONDITIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 1044 PM EDT THURSDAY... FORECAST IN
GOOD SHAPE AT THIS TIME WITH THE WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWING SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM
CANADA AND APPROACHING THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY IN NORTHERN NEW
YORK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECTING A MAINLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...FRIDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY AND DEW POINTS CREEPING UP A BIT...BUT NOWHERE
NEAR SOME OF THE DATA THAT SUGGESTS DEW POINTS GETTING WELL INTO
THE 60S. THIS IS RESULTING IN AN OVERESTIMATION OF INSTABILITY AND
MAY BE DRIVING THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION A BIT TOO MUCH OVER
THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING DOWN FROM CANADA...BUT DOES
NOT MOVE IN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THUS FORCING WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO ENHANCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED...SO THREAT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED. WILL
WORD IT AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR NOW
WITH THUNDER THREAT DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY...BUT
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED AT THAT TIME SO CAN SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION MAINLY BEING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS
REMAINING ISOLATED IN NATURE. FLOW ALOFT IS EVEN WEAKER THAN
FRIDAY...SO PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...BUT NO STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
CONVECTION ENDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS IN AND
THIS SHOULD BE THE START OF A NOTICEABLE WARMING TREND. UNTIL
THEN...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 335 PM EDT THURSDAY...HOT WEATHER WITH ONE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ARE FEATURED IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
LARGE RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND
NEARING 90 DEGREES IN SOME SPOTS. THEN A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AND
WILL MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE STRONG TO
SEVERE. MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE...THIS ONE FROM
THE NORTH...BUILDING OVER THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...ANTICIPATE EARLY AM LIFR FOG AT MPV
08-12Z...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
PASSING MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. DECAYING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EWD FROM SERN ONTARIO MAY YIELD AN ISOLD
SHOWER AT MSS 10-14Z. OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...BUT WITH
TIMING/OCCURRENCE UNCERTAINTY FOR ANY PARTICULAR AIRPORT LOCATION
PRECLUDING INCLUSION IN THE TAFS ATTM. MAINLY SCT-BKN050-070
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING...BUT WILL BECOME SOUTH 8-10KTS 16-23Z AND
THEN GENERALLY 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL BR/FG IS
POSSIBLE AT SLK/MPV 06-12Z SATURDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED BRIEF INTERVALS OF MVFR TO
IFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...WGH/DEAL
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...BANACOS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
140 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY
AND MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
I WILL MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL DOES NOT DEVELOP SHOWERS IN
NORTHWEST OHIO UNTIL NEAR DAWN. BASED ON THE CURRENT TRENDS...I
WILL PUSH THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR NORTHWEST OHIO A LITTLE
LATER INTO THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST. I WILL DECREASE THE CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AS WELL. CURRENT
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK SO NO ADJUSTMENTS TO THAT
SECTION OF THE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
RESIDUAL MOISTURE/CLOUDS FROM THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO STREAM OFF INTO PA AND NY AS WESTERLIES RAMP UP IN
RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING MEAN LAYER RIDGE SOUTH OF THE AREA.
THIS RIDGE...OR HIGH...WILL CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE AIRMASS
OVERNIGHT. AS A RESULT EXPECTING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY TONIGHT.
OVERNIGHT WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS IN THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WELL AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY DROP
SE ACROSS MI INTO OH SOME TIME FRIDAY NIGHT. AT LEAST THROUGH DAY
BREAK...THERE WILL BE FEWER CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST. IN GENERAL LOWS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 60 WITH SSW FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SE EVER SO SLIGHTLY ON FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO SNEAK IN FROM THE NORTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING AFTER PEAK HEATING...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCATTERED TO
OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FRI
EVENING...A FEW TSTORMS MAY POP UP AS CAPES RISE INTO THE 1000 -
1500 J PER KG RANGE. BUT WITH NO REAL FOCUS...NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING REAL ORGANIZED. THE FRONT MORE OR LESS WASHES OUT ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY...SO KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. TIMING REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
ANY ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT FOR PURPOSES OF
THE FORECAST...KEY IN ON THE DEEPER MID LEVEL MOISTURE FOR BEST
ODDS OF PRECIP. BY SATURDAY NIGHT WE WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT AGAIN
AS THE HIGH PROJECTS ITSELF BACK ACROSS OHIO AT THE SURFACE AND
MID LEVEL RIDGING WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO NEAR 90 ON SUNDAY...MAKING IT
FEEL VERY SUMMERLIKE WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND
UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MODELS SHOW UPPER TROUGHING STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
MON ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE. WILL INCREASE SMALL CHC POPS
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR THE MORE UNSTABLE AFTERNOON THEN RAMP
UP POPS INTO MON NIGHT AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO
THE AREA.
BY TUE...STILL NOT SURE IF THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT WILL BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO SPARE THE LAKESHORE FROM A CHANCE FOR RAIN. TUE
NIGHT INTO WED ANOTHER S/W IS SHOWN DROPPING SE INTO THE AREA WITH
THE OLD FRONTAL BAND OF MOISTURE SPREADING BACK NE ACROSS THE CWA
AND TENDING TO REMAIN IN PLACE INTO THU SO WILL KEEP SMALL CHC POPS
IN THE FORECAST. WILL SLIGHTLY DECREASE THE POP FOR THU INTO THU
NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW MORE UPPER RIDGING TRYING TO BUILD IN.
WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ON MON WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN TO AROUND
NORMAL FOR TUE AND WED DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE WINDS FROM
THE NORTH NEAR THE LAKE. BY THU...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW MUCH WARM
ADVECTION TAKES PLACE SO TEMPS MORE IN QUESTION BY THEN BUT WILL
SHOW SOME WARMING TAKING PLACE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 15000 FEET MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
AREA AT THIS TIME. EXPECTING SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS OR VISIBILITIES WITH THE
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AT 10 TO
20 KNOTS MOST AREAS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AND BECOME
LIGHT SOUTHERLY.
OUTLOOK...NON-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SAT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
TONIGHT INTO FRI THEN DIMINISH LATE FRI INTO FRI NIGHT BEFORE
TURNING MORE WEST AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE LAKE.
COULD SEE WAVES EAST OF FAIRPORT HARBOR INCREASE TO MARGINAL SCA
CRITERIA BY SOMETIME FRI MORNING.
FAIRLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SAT SHOULD BECOME SOUTH BY SUN THEN
SW BY SUN EVE AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR MON. ANOTHER
WEAKENING COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP SE ACROSS THE LAKE LATE MON NIGHT
TO PRODUCE NW WINDS FOR TUE BUT GENERALLY 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MAYERS
NEAR TERM...GARNET
SHORT TERM...MAYERS
LONG TERM...ADAMS
AVIATION...LOMBARDY
MARINE...ADAMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
125 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE 500 MB
HEIGHTS AND 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE RIDGE
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. A SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR BY MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO START THE NIGHT. THIS WILL
LIKELY BE THE LAST COOL LOW HUMIDITY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL DAYS. AS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SLOW SET IN OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING.
WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT. ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS NEAR RIVERS...STREAMS AND LAKES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
ANY VALLEY FOG IN NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BURNS OFF FAST. WEAK RETURN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN WARMER AND STEADILY MOISTER AIR.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH NOW GOES TO ABOUT NOON FRIDAY SHOWS NO HINT
OF CONVECTION IN PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH AT LEAST NOON AND LIKELY
WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON AS MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS NORTH OF LAKE
ERIE AT 16Z. BUT IT DOES SHOW THE MOIST WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW.
BUT THE NCEP MODELS AND BLENDS ALL IMPLY AT LEAST CHANCE POPS BY
THE END OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING ON FRIDAY. THE NEW 21Z
SREF IS OF COURSE DRIER THAN THE 15Z SREF AND KEEPS THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN ALONG AND NORTH OF THE NY BORDER. THE TWO BEST
AREAS OF CHANCE SHOWERS/THUNDER WOULD BE EXTREME NORTHERN TIER AND
THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. TRIED TO SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE IN SOUTHWEST
AND CHANCE FOCUSED MAINLY WARREN AND MCKEAN TAPERING OFF TO EAST
AND SOUTH.
COULD BE LINGERING OVERNIGHT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND WEST WITH
CHANCE POPS. THE COURSER SREF AND OPERATIONAL MODELS USE
PARAMETERIZED PRECIPITATION SO THEY MAY BE TOO WET. BUT HAD TO
KEEP CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT LOWERING WITH TIME.
GUIDANCE IMPLIES WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE SATURDAY THOUGH PW
VALUES ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL. AT THIS TIME THE 21Z SREF AND 15Z SREF
PARALLEL SUGGEST BEST CHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS IN UPDATED FORECAST.
GOOD NEWS IS MOST MEMBERS SHOW A FEW HUNDRETHS AT THIS TIME AND
ONLY A FEW GET CLOSE TO 0.50 INCHES IN 24 HOURS SO LIGHT SHOWERS
IS THE FORECAST IMPLICATION. MOST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW CAPE
GENERALLYIN THE 1200 JKG-1 RANGE ON SATURDAY. ONLY A FEW WITH
HIGH CAPE AT THIS TIME. CAPE OVER 1200 JKG-1 IS GENERALLY
FAVORABLE FOR SOME KEEP CELLS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OF NORTH AMERICA THROUGH
NEXT WEEK. ANY LOWS/TROUGHS/FRONTS WILL HAVE TO NAVIGATE OVER AND
AROUND THIS HIGH PRESSURE. THE FIRST TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
RETROGRADES AND THE ACCOMPANYING RIDGE TILTS POSITIVELY THE
CORRESPONDING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EAST COAST WILL
DEEPEN....BRINGING A FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE SATURDAY. AS
THIS BOUNDARY STALL AND MOVES INTO DRIER AIR...ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF PA...AND
ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NW MTNS. THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME EXPECT THAT
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND UNDER THIS MORE WESTERLY FLOW
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL AID IN ANY CONVECTION.
AS THE FRONT STALLS SATURDAY...ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM
WILL BE AT OR OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES EAST OF
PENNSYLVANIA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MODELS ARE TRENDING WARMER
AS HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THE WEEKEND
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD...THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REST OF CONUS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS FOR TIMING AND POSITION OF FRONT. THE NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
DISPARITY ON TIMING SO HAVE LEFT BROAD CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A SW FLOW OF AIR WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS SE OF OUR AREA.
TOOK FOG OUT OF BFD...WINDS ARE SW THERE.
SOME MID AND HIGH CLDS LATER TODAY.
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR STORM LATE...BUT DEWPOINTS NOT
REAL HIGH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-TUE...ISOLD PM TSRA IMPACTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY W MTNS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GRUMM
NEAR TERM...GRUMM
SHORT TERM...GRUMM
LONG TERM...CERU/HAGNER
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
357 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A DOMINANT MID AND UPPER RIDGE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER NEW
MEXICO...PLACING NORTH TEXAS IN A NORTH FLOW REGIME...AND THIS
GENERAL PATTERN SHOULD HOLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE LOCATED NEAT THE OK PANHANDLE...AND IS PROGGED TO
ROTATE SLOWLY AND STEADILY SOUTH AROUND THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
RIDGE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL LEAD TO WEAK
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE I-35/35W CORRIDOR. THE REST OF
THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY HOT AND RAIN-FREE. POPS WILL BE
LIMITED TO OUR SOUTHWEST COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
DROPS FARTHER SOUTH...THEN SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE.
SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT EASTERLY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WHICH HAS
BEEN IN PLACE SINCE THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA A COUPLE OF
DAYS AGO. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS WINDS VEER
TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES ON
SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
A WEATHER PATTERN CHANGE IS IN STORE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
PLAINS. THERE IS DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE AND BRING AT LEAST A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE UPPER
RIDGE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. THE ECMWF ADVERTISES A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
SWINGING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS...ON THE
OTHER HAND...IS 36 TO 48 HOURS SLOWER WITH ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION.
AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE TWO SYSTEMS...AND WILL
ONLY ADVERTISE LOW-END POPS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NEITHER SOLUTION BRINGS THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALL
THAT FAR SOUTH INTO NORTH TEXAS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE
BOUNDARY WILL MAKE IT SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. IF THIS DOES
OCCUR...HIGHER POPS WOULD BECOME WARRANTED FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE AREA. ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE POP FORECAST FOR
LATE NEXT WEEK ONCE MODELS BECOME IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE 06 UTC TAF
CYCLE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER POSSIBLE.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD YIELD TO AREAS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 00 UTC NAM
AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REMAIN THE LONE AGGRESSORS WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY ON FRI MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW WILL OPT TO
LEAVE THE TAF DRY. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP...IT WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR WESTERN ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE
GATES. TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE TO ESE AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOP.
FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
4-6 HOURS BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LAMP
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SUGGESTED SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW
DUE TO LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA THAT SUPPORTS THE LATEST LAMP OUTPUT. NEVERTHELESS WILL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE CHANGES SHOULD MVFR CIGS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE TAF SITE. SIMILAR TO THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE TAF SITE.
BAIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 99 75 97 77 98 / 5 5 5 5 10
WACO, TX 101 74 99 75 98 / 5 5 20 5 10
PARIS, TX 95 68 94 72 96 / 0 0 0 5 10
DENTON, TX 97 71 96 72 97 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 97 70 96 71 96 / 0 0 5 5 10
DALLAS, TX 100 76 97 77 99 / 0 5 5 5 10
TERRELL, TX 98 72 97 72 98 / 0 0 5 5 10
CORSICANA, TX 99 73 99 72 97 / 5 5 10 5 10
TEMPLE, TX 100 73 98 74 96 / 5 5 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 98 70 96 73 96 / 20 5 10 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1213 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH A MAJORITY OF THE 06 UTC TAF
CYCLE WITH ONLY A FEW MINOR IMPACTS DUE TO WEATHER POSSIBLE.
FOR THE METROPLEX TAF SITES...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD YIELD TO AREAS
OF MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. 00 UTC NAM
AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE REMAIN THE LONE AGGRESSORS WITH
REGARDS TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EARLY ON FRI MORNING.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THIS SOLUTION...SO FOR NOW WILL OPT TO
LEAVE THE TAF DRY. SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP...IT WILL BE HIGH
BASED AND MAY CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR WESTERN ARRIVAL/DEPARTURE
GATES. TAF SITES ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE METROPLEX WILL
BE THE MOST LIKELY IMPACTED BY CONVECTION...SHOULD IT DEVELOP.
DRIER AIR SHOULD WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY MITIGATE THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL REMAIN ENE TO ESE AT AROUND 10
KNOTS...OUTSIDE OF ANY TYPE OF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS THAT DEVELOP.
FOR THE WACO TAF SITE...CLEAR SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT
4-6 HOURS BEFORE SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER INCREASES. LAMP
GUIDANCE OVER THE PAST HOUR HAS SUGGESTED SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW
DUE TO LITTLE RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AND LACK OF OBSERVATIONAL
DATA THAT SUPPORTS THE LATEST LAMP OUTPUT. NEVERTHELESS WILL
MONITOR OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND MAKE CHANGES SHOULD MVFR CIGS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DOWNSTREAM OF THE TAF SITE. SIMILAR TO THE
METROPLEX TAF SITES...A FEW MORNING/AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP...BUT THINK THE BETTER CHANCES ARE WEST OF THE TAF SITE.
BAIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015/
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORCAST AREA HAVE MOVED TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA AS OF MID AFTERNOON.
THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HANG AROUND TOMORROW AND AS
A SHORTWAVE MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. TOYED WITH THE IDEA
OF JUST MENTIONING 10 PERCENTS AND ISOLATED...BUT WILL KEEP THE 20
PERCENTS WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY.
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EAST
TEXAS SATURDAY AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO MEXICO THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES /20 PERCENT/
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. SOME LOW
CHANCES /10-20 PERCENT/ MAY LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES DURING THE DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
58
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 76 99 75 97 77 / 5 5 5 5 5
WACO, TX 75 101 74 99 75 / 10 5 5 20 5
PARIS, TX 68 95 68 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 5
DENTON, TX 73 97 71 96 72 / 5 5 5 5 5
MCKINNEY, TX 71 97 70 96 71 / 5 0 0 5 5
DALLAS, TX 78 100 76 97 77 / 5 0 5 5 5
TERRELL, TX 72 98 72 97 72 / 5 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 99 73 99 72 / 5 5 5 10 5
TEMPLE, TX 75 100 73 98 74 / 10 5 5 20 10
MINERAL WELLS, TX 73 98 70 96 73 / 10 20 5 10 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
15/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1142 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. LATEST MOSAIC
RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT
925-850MB AND WEAK 850-700MB QG FORCING PER THE 13.15Z RAP.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT MOVING WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE 13.12Z
GFS/NAM SUGGEST WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH THE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY 06Z FRIDAY. IN
ADDITION...THE 13.15Z RAP AND 13.12Z NAM SHOW A CAP OVER THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING...THIS WILL INHIBIT WIDESPREAD COVERAGE
OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HAVE KEPT SMALL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH 06Z...AND AFTER 06Z CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
NEXT WEAK IMPULSE MOVES INTO EASTERN WISCONSIN AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM INDICATE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND
FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF
WISCONSIN. CONFINED THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY ALONG EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 18Z FRIDAY.
WARM AIR FILTERING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WILL ALLOW HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
POSSIBLY THE LOWER 90S AT A FEW LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FLATTENS RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND BUILDS RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/NAM/ECMWF SUGGEST
925MB TEMPERATURES RISING TO PLUS 25 TO PLUS 28 DEGREES CELSIUS BY
00Z SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR
SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES RISING AGAIN INTO THE MIDDLE 80S TO
LOWER 90S.
FOCUS TURNS TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES.
SURFACE FRONT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKS INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND WESTERN IOWA BY 00Z MONDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING OF SURFACE FRONT WILL IMPACT WHEN THE BETTER MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE/QG FORCING TO MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS. AT
THIS TIME...HAVE CONFINED PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...THEN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY AND AMPLIFY UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
SURFACE FRONT/SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA MONDAY. DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG
THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THEN...SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
ARE INDICATED BETWEEN THE 13.12Z GFS/ECMWF WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AS THE MODELS SHOW MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. THIS HAS MAJOR IMPACTS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. BASED ON THIS CONFIDENCE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY IS LOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT THU AUG 13 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT KRST/KLSE THROUGH 15.06Z. EXPECT
PERIODS OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS THEN POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 4000 TO 5000 FT AGL LAYER BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATE IN THE
PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...BUT
LIMITED SPATIAL COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTION AT KLSE AT THIS TIME.
LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION...ROGERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
438 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST STARTS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT SLC...GJT AND DEN
WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT ABQ WITH PWATS AROUND 1/2 INCH LAST
NIGHT.
WITH NO EVIDENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...THE LATEST MODELS...INCLUDING HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC...ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. WITH TERRAIN INDUCED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENTS PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS SAT...WHICH SUGGESTS
MAXES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FRIDAY`S NUMBERS. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS) SUN...FORECAST CAPES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY
EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM I25 EASTWARD. FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS...WITH READINGS DRIFTING DOWN JUST A DEGF OR TWO FROM SAT.
MOIST PLUME THINS SLIGHTLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY WRN CO AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HOLD ON TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED/SCT POPS MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MAX TEMPS MON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD.
FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD DEPENDS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH QUICK PEEK AT 06Z GFS
SHOWS A FASTER TROUGH THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION. CONCEPTUALLY...SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE ONE WE WOULD SEE IN SEPT/OCT...WITH STRONG W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM SHOVING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL
EAST...LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. COLD FRONT
THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUE OR WED...WITH UPSLOPE SURGE PERHAPS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER WEST. IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD
LINGER WED INTO THU AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT...THOUGH GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FASTER 00Z EURO/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. FORECAST TUE INTO THU IS
RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A
GRADUALLY COOLING TREND WED-THU AS TROUGH PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH A GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WIND REGIME. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING COULD PUSH EAST ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
ADJACENT PLAINS AND TERMINAL WITH WEAK WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCES OF STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TERMINALS WILL BE
AT COS AND ALS...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCTS IN TACT AT THIS TIME.
STORMS THAT AFFECT TERMINALS WILL PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1111 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH FAIR WEATHER AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AS A HOTTER AIR MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1111 AM...FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. SOME CLOUDINESS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S WITH 80F BEING REPORTED AT
POUGHKEEPSIE NY. DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY STILL IN THE 50S WITH 60S
OVER THE SOUTH WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM TRENTON ONTARIO SOUTHWEST
TO ROCHESTER AND BUFFALO NY MOVING SLOWLY TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW LEVEL JET MAX ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.
LATEST HRRR SHOWERS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ALBANY FORECAST AREA AROUND 1 PM AND
SPREADING EASTWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. NEAR TERM UPDATE MAINLY FOR
CLOUD COVER AND TO TIME SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON.
PREVIOUS...
WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE
ZONAL WITH A WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSE WITHIN IT. THE BEST LIFT
GENERATED BY THE WARM ADVECTION WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE NORTH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. THE SHOWALTER INDICES ARE NOT
PARTICULARLY LOW...AND GENERALLY IN THE 0 TO -1C RANGE. THE O-6
KM DEEP SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. THE NAM HAS
MORE INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS...DUE TO INFLATED SFC DEWPTS ACROSS
THE CATSKILLS INTO THE CAPITAL REGION. ADJUSTING THE SFC DEWPTS
TO THE U50S TO L60S SHOULD ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES CLOSER TO THE GFS
IN THE 500-1000 J/KG RANGE. SOME WEAK PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FROM THE NRN CATSKILLS...CAPITAL REGION...AND
NRN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE USED
ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE FCST AREA. LOW CHC AND SLIGHT CHC
WERE USED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH NO POPS OVER THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT.
H850 TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +16C WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
SHIFTING TO THE W TO SW. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO U80S IN
THE VALLEY AREAS...TO M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK WARM FRONT SHIFTS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. THE SCT SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DIMINISH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE NRN
TIER OF THE FCST AREA...AND SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE KEPT
IN THE FCST. THE FCST AREA WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VARIABLE CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED WITH MORE CLOUDS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH U50S TO L60S
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAINLY LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS.
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY S/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SFC DEWPTS
WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M60S. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS INDICATE
SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG ARE POSSIBLE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND IF ENOUGH SFC DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. DESPITE THE MODERATE
AMOUNTS OF INSTABILITY...THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE WEAK AT
10 KTS OR SO. DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED. PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE STORM WITH
MARGINAL HAIL COULD OCCUR IF THE GREATER INSTABILITY IS TAPPED
INTO...BUT MOSTLY GENERAL OR NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. PWATS INCREASE TO 1.25-1.66 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO OCCUR. H850 TEMPS WILL BE IN THE +15C TO +17C
RANGE WITH THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW. EXPECT MID TO UPPER 80S IN
THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND U70S
TO L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS. THE DIFFUSE AND SHALLOW COLD
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION WITH THE SCT THUNDERSTORMS ENDING.
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND BRIEF BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY WILL
OCCUR...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND LAPSE RATES LOOK WEAK WITH
THE FRONT. THE COLD ADVECTION IS VERY WEAK TO NEUTRAL TOO. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO M60S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND MID 50S AT
AROUND 60F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF THE
THE REGION AND FALLS APART. A BUBBLE HIGH BUILDS IN OVER THE
REGION. MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AS A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN. TEMPS WILL
RISE CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...WITH H850 TEMPS OF +17C TO
+18C. SOME 90F READINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/MID
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD U80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID AND U60S /A FEW 70F READINGS IN THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY/ IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND LOWER TO MID 60S OVER
THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AT THE START WITH A RETURN TO NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE GO THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH VERY
WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. H8 TEMPS RISE TO +18C TO +20C ON
MONDAY. THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MONDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS ON MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON
VALLEY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN CANADA ON TUESDAY AND STALLS OVER SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LOOKS TO RETURN NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. ML
MUCAPES REACH 1500-2500 J/KG TUESDAY AFTERNOON...1000-2000 J/KG ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND 500-1500 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW
HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE HIGHEST POPS ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS AND HOW
MUCH INSTABILITY REMAINS ACRS THE FA. EXPECT HIGHS ON TUESDAY TO
RANGE FROM THE MID 70S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST WITH
LOWS ON TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S...HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
IN THE MID 70S TO UPPER 80S...LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S AND HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
OVERALL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PRECIPITATION NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
WHICH WILL DEPEND ON THE COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON BRINGING WITH IT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE TAF SITES LATER TODAY.
FOG SLOWLY BURNING OFF AT KPSF THIS MORNING. DURING THE DAY
TODAY...SCT- BKN CU/STRATOCU AROUND 5 KFT LOOKS TO BE IN
PLACE...ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
MAY BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY AT TAF SITES. S-SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS BY MID MORNING...WITH SOME GUSTS OF 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE...ESP AT KGFL AND KALB.
THIS EVENING EXPECT THE SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO DIMINISH IN
COVERAGE WITH MAINLY BKN-SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS LEFT OVER. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME LATE NIGHT
FOG AT KGFL AND KPOU WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO OPEN THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FOR SUNDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
AS A HOTTER AIR MASS BUILDS IN TO CLOSE THE WEEKEND AND OPEN NEXT
WEEK. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO INCREASE SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE 35 TO 60 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM RH VALUES TONIGHT WILL BE 90 TO 100 PERCENT.
EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 45 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH THE HIGHER VALUES OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACK
REGION.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH
TODAY...AND BE LIGHT AT 10 MPH OR LESS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH ON SATURDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
A WARM FRONT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FROM THE CAPITAL REGION...AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRES NORTHWARD THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
FROM THE MOHAWK RIVER VALLEY NORTH AND WEST TODAY WITH GENERALLY
A TENTH TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH.
A COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING A QUARTER INCH OF
RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
A HOTTER AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS WILL IMPACT THE REGION SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TUESDAY.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/WASULA
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...SND/11
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...NAS/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
909 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 14Z...
* LOW POSSIBILITY OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR BRIEF LIGHT RAIN LATE THIS MORNING AND THEN A CHANCE
FOR ISOLATED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 14Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY. LOW IN LAKE BREEZE REACHING
AS FAR INLAND AS AIRPORTS.
* MEDIUM IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
636 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 12Z...
* LAKE BREEZE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON.
* CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
BMD
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 12Z...
* HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WINDS THROUGH MIDDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN
DETAILS OF A LAKE BREEZE AND WINDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING.
* MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BMD
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1026 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.
CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY
ON...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH A FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE DUE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
WEEK...00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
AN UPPER WAVE THAT THE ECMWF LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
NEXT THURSDAY. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SIDED CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WITH MODEL CLUSTERING NOT GREAT...DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE MID AND LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/15Z TAF UPDATE/...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NECESSARY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
ANY MVFR OR IFR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AT WORST.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AT LAF AND IND...BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE AIRPORTS. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR OR
WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST 6 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK/NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE NEAR TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.
CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY
ON...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH A FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE DUE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
WEEK...00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
AN UPPER WAVE THAT THE ECMWF LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
NEXT THURSDAY. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SIDED CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WITH MODEL CLUSTERING NOT GREAT...DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE MID AND LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/1200Z TAF ISSUANCE/...
ISSUED AT 600 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
ANY MVFR OR IFR FOG SHOULD LIFT BY ISSUANCE TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED DIURNAL CU AT WORST.
WOULD NOT RULE OUT THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT AT LAF AND IND...BUT CHANCES
ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR THE AIRPORTS. WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
AND DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER 60S...SHOULD SEE SOME MVFR OR
WORSE FOG OVERNIGHT...AT LEAST AT THE SMALLER AIRPORTS.
WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST 6 KNOTS OR LESS TODAY.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
544 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
TWO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD HEAT
INDICES...WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF ISOLD TSRA ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONT SAGGING S/SE ACROSS MPX NORTH/NE CWA.
ANY CLDS THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE WHICH BRINGS
FULL SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CUMULUS CLDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
NOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NOON WITH
DEW PTS ARND 65-70. THIS LEADS TO HEAT INDICES OVER 90 DEGREES BY
LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTN.
EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC MN
WHERE ACTUAL TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MORNING
HWO WILL THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE
AFTN...WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SOME OF THE CAMS DUE SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SAGS TO THE S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI. DUE TO THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE LOWEST 10K... THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH BASES. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS /WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ MOVES OVER MN/WC WI. I CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE VERY ISOLD. NO CHGS OVERNIGHT AS ANY TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS WARM AND HUMID BUT A FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY SPOTS IN MINNESOTA - WISCONSIN SHOULD BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN FACT...GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SMILIER VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY COULD BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY - SO WE MIGHT NEED TO BOOST OUR SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN FAIRLY VANILLA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS OR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS THE PAST 2.5 MONTHS.
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WE HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNCAPPED AND CLOSER TO THE JET...SO
WE`RE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY DOSE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH VERY
FEW 90S OR 70S. THE TWIN CITIES HAS A CHANCE TO DOUBLE ITS NUMBER
OF 90S FOR THE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE ONLY 90S
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR CAME ON JUNE 9TH AND JULY 17TH. ST. CLOUD
HAS ONLY HAD ONE 90 /JUNE 9TH/ AND EAU CLAIRE HAS YET TO OBSERVE A
90 DEGREE DAY.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO END UP BEING WARM GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL
TIMING...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CLOUD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE FRONT TAKES A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA. THIS
LEAVES US WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING...AND
THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER/DRIER AND
SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD GET
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
NOT MUCH CHG FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS WITH ONLY A WIND SHIFT TO A
MORE WEST-WEST NORTHWEST DIRECTION BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN.
ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR KRNH/KEAU AFT 20Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
TOO LOW ON ADDING VCTS AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR WITH SOME
FG/BR POSSIBLE SATURDAY MORNING NEAR KEAU.
KMSP...
AGAIN...NOT MUCH CHG FROM PREVIOUS TAF. KEPT VFR CONDS THRU THE
PERIOD WITH WINDS BECOMING WSW BY LATE MORNING. A VERY SMALL CHC
OF A TSRA NEAR THE AIRPORT BETWEEN 20-00Z TODAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. CHC OF TSRA. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS BECMG W.
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA EARLY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...JLT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
931 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO UPDATE THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. THE
MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO ADD POPS TO THE EAST HALF OF THE
CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERS APPEAR TO REACH BILLINGS AREA AROUND 3PM
TODAY. WESTERN STORMS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL BE MAINLY DRY...OR A MIX
OF WET AND DRY. THE GREATEST CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS ARE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...AS HIGH AS 50MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OUTRUNNING THE CONVECTION
AND INTERACT WITH LOW LEVEL JET TO FORCE CONVECTION FURTHER EAST
THROUGH LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER PWATS
IN THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...NAM AND HRRR INDICATE A PIECE OF
ENERGY IMPACTING BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AROUND THAT TIME...AND SPREADING
CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY...BE IT THE THE WAVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OR
OUTFLOW RELATED ACTIVITY...LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD IMPACT THE
BROADUS/MILES CITY AREAS BY 6PM...AND INTO BAKER/EKALAKA AN HOUR
OR SO LATER. THESE EASTERN STORMS DO LOOK LIKE THEY SHOULD BE OF
THE WETTER VARIETY...BUT WILL ALSO HAVE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AS
HIGH AS 50MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. THE COLD FRONT ITSELF IS
STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT ARE NOT
EXPECTED AS MUCH CONVECTION WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
FIRE WEATHER REMAINS OF GREAT CONCERN TODAY...BUT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR BORDERLINE FOR HIGHLIGHTS. HAVE OPTED TO
CONTINUE WITH STRONGLY WORDED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST...AND SOCIAL
MEDIA MESSAGING FOR TODAY. AAG
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND SAT...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN WITH THE APPROACH OF A STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE N CALIFORNIA COAST. DESPITE THE BEGINNING OF
RIDGE BREAKDOWN...HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TO BRING VERY HOT MERCURY READINGS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS FROM BILLINGS EAST COULD EASILY REACH TRIPLE
DIGITS. LOOKING AT SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY...BILLINGS
COMES IN AT 102...MILES CITY AT 105 AND SHERIDAN AT 103. OF THOSE
THREE LOCALES...MILES CITY IS THE ONE THAT COULD COME THE CLOSEST
TO APPROACHING A RECORD TODAY WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE.
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN...A PUSH OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL RIDE
THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE OF SOME
AFTERNOON STORMS FROM BILLINGS WEST. HRRR SURFACE PRECIP PROGS
SHOW NICE COVERAGE OF PULSE TYPE STORMS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION
BY 20 UTC...AND POTENTIALLY INTO BILLINGS BY 22 UTC. THESE STORMS
SHOULD BE WET AND WINDY IN NATURE...AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH AN
INCH OVER MUCH OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME.
IN CONCERT WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES
BY SATURDAY MORNING...A SURFACE FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY NIGHT...REACHING BILLINGS AROUND 1 AM
LOCAL TIME AND INTO THE DAKOTAS BY SATURDAY MORNING. GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND MAY INITIATE SOME
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. LIGHTNING WILL BE A THREAT ALONG WITH BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN. DUE TO THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE...DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT. WILL
NOT RULE OUT AN ACTIVE SPOT FORECAST DAY ON SATURDAY DUE TO
POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STARTS.
THE FLOW WILL START TO TURN ZONAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY STILL MAKE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S BUT THEN GO DOWN TO MORE TOLERABLE READINGS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GUSTY AND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FOR A MAJORITY OF THE DAY. RH VALUES WILL DIP INTO THE
UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S WHICH MAKES IT RIGHT AT THE CUTOFF FOR
POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
FIRE WEATHER...TOOK A LOOK AT SOME CIPS GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO
WIND PROPERTIES IN THE FAR EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TIME
LAGGED GUIDANCE FOR 850 MB WINDS DO NOT INDICATE SOUTHERLY LLJ
WINDS GREATER THAN 50 KNOTS FOR SATURDAY OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. FURTHER...ANALOG GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE ANY CASES WITH
SURFACE WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS IN THE SAME PORTION OF
THE CWA. WHILE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AND GUSTY...AND CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY...DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR ONE MORE SHIFT IN LIEU OF STRONGLY
WORDED FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AND SOCIAL MEDIA MESSAGING ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FIRE DANGER. COORDINATED ALL OF THIS WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS AND SPC. SINGER
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR SUN...MON...TUE...WED...THU...
SUNDAY STILL LOOKS TO THE BE COOLEST DAY IN THE EXTENDED. THE
MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO SHOW SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE COULD
LINGERING IN THE EAST. HAVE CONTINUED THE INHERITED POPS FOR
SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO
NORMAL FOR THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH OF THE
PACIFIC TROUGH FOR NEXT. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
CONSISTENCY ON THE TIMING AS WOULD BE PREFERRED. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH MAINLY A BLEND OF THE THE SOLUTIONS AND BROADBRUSHING. THE EC
IS FASTER WITH THE PROGRESS OF THE TROUGH THAN THE GFS.
ALSO...BOTH ARE TRENDING MORE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
FRONT. FOR THE WEST OF THE WEEK IT WILL SOMEWHAT BE DEPENDENT ON
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT AND WHEN THE RAINFALL MOVES OUT.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE FAIRLY NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
REIMER
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN FOOTHILLS AND SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOCAL GUSTS TO 45KTS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR
STORMS TODAY. IN ADDITION SOME LOCALLY LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. LOCALIZED THERMAL GUSTS TO 25KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 100
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY SAT SUN MON TUE WED THU
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 099 068/090 056/079 056/085 058/080 056/081 057/081
3/T 21/N 11/B 11/U 23/T 32/T 22/T
LVM 093 057/086 048/079 048/084 052/078 049/080 051/080
3/T 22/T 00/U 11/U 23/T 32/T 22/T
HDN 102 065/092 055/082 055/089 057/083 054/083 055/083
2/T 21/B 11/B 11/U 22/T 22/T 22/T
MLS 105 071/091 057/080 056/086 060/084 056/083 057/083
2/T 21/N 11/B 12/T 23/T 33/T 22/T
4BQ 102 065/092 058/081 057/084 059/086 057/082 057/082
2/T 22/T 11/B 22/T 23/T 33/T 23/T
BHK 100 066/091 055/078 053/082 057/082 055/080 054/081
2/T 22/T 11/B 13/T 34/T 43/T 32/T
SHR 100 062/093 054/081 053/087 055/083 051/080 053/080
2/T 21/B 11/B 21/B 23/T 32/T 22/T
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
306 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE. LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER. LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER YUMA COUNTY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE PHOENIX AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST BUT IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CWA.
CLOUDS OVER VEGAS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
I ARRIVED FOR WORK 8 HOURS AGO (83 AT 6 PM AND 82 CURRENTLY AT 2
AM). AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE REGARDING YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES IN
LAS VEGAS...THE LOW OF 77 DEGREES ACTUALLY OCCURRED ROUGHLY 3 1/2
HOURS AFTER THE 1:12 PM HIGH OF 103. THIS LARGE DROP IN TEMPS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VALLEY.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MOIST...UNSTABLE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS CAPPING THIS
MORNING OVERCOME BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AN INCH AND
A THIRD PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS LATER TODAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...END ANY
CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THE FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS FROM POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT SUNDAY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT "WATCH" CURRENTLY OUT FOR SUNDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT "WARNING".
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE WEEKEND HOT SPELL
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STRONG CLOSED HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...NEAR YUMA. THE GFS TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND THE MONDAY MAX TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO...THE 850-700MB MEAN TEMP IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 22 DEGREES C OVER LAS VEGAS MONDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THIS CORRELATES TO A 110
DEGREE HIGH IN LAS VEGAS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES. SO...ANY
EXCESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THEY
ALL INDICATE THE GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD LOWER 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY EXCEPT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 15K FEET
BUT COULD BECOME BKN AROUND 10K FEET AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW. ALSO, STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE BEST OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES TODAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES. &&
$$
SALMEN/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
942 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED MID-
LEVEL WAVE OVER VIRGINIA EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. ASIDE FROM THIS MID-LEVEL WAVE...THERE ARE
SEVERAL CONS FOR PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE ARE A RELATIVELY DRY MEAN AIR MASS AND K
INDICES FORECAST LOWER THAN THURSDAY WHEN THEN EVEN THE SHOWERS WERE
VERY ISOLATED...A WEAK 250MB JETLET LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM
THE AREA...A MINIMUM OF 850MB THETA-E VALUES ACTUALLY ALONG AND EAST
OF U.S. 1 RELATIVE TO THURSDAY...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND
GENERALLY CAPPED GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AND RAP MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE
PROS ARE THE MID-LEVEL WAVE WHICH IS QUITE OBVIOUS ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS FORECAST BY THE
RAP FOR THIS AFTERNOON...DECENT 1000-500MB LAPSE RATES JUST ABOVE
7C/KM...AND THE FACT THAT THE HRRR WRF AND ARW GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1.
ADDED A SLENDER REGION OF JUST AT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
VIRGINIA BORDER AS THAT AREA IS DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH WHAT APPEARS TO
BE THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE AND WHERE THE RAP HAS MLCAPE IN
THE LOWEST 3KM THAT ACTUALLY REGISTERS TO AROUND 100J/KG OR SO. 1000-
850MB THICKNESS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST
RAISING MAXES ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO...FOR HIGHS 86 TO 91.
TONIGHT...SKIES SHOULD BECOME CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING VORT MAX SHOULD OCCUR. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND A RELATIVELY
DRY AIR MASS NEAR THE SURFACE...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD
OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST LIFTS NWD...RESULTING IN RISING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY. THICKNESSES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PREDICTED TO BE INT HE UPPER 1420S NEAR
1430M...ABOUT 8M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUPPORTS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
BECOME WETTER WITH TIME...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60-LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS IT WILL FEEL HOT
EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.
ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE MANNER OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SUNDAY MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN-SE PERIPHERY...AND DUE TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC INTO
THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER NEXT WEEK...COLLABORATING WITH WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CORRESPONDING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 88-92 EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS
RISING A FEW METERS...COULD SEE A NUDGE UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR WED AND THU IN PRECEEDING DAYS. MORNING MINS WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU WITH
BASES AROUND 6000FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH MAINLY
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A SHOWER WILL
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE FOR THE CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...MAY SEE AN INCREASE FOR THE PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
401 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LOW OFF THE SOUTH OREGON COAST LIFTS NE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
LOW MOVES WELL EAST OF THE CASCADES BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH MILD DRY
WEATHER RETURNING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A MINOR THREAT OF SHOWERS
TUE AND WED AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES ACROSS REGION. OTHERWISE..DRY WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW HAS VERY SLOWLY
MOVED NORTH ALONG THE COAST NOW CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE
GOLD BEACH COAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON. THERE ARE CURRENTLY 2 DISTINCT
AREAS OF DYNAMIC LIFT. ONE IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX ROTATING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW CENTER AND IS BRINGING AN ELONGATED BAND
OF SHOWERS PLUS ISOLATED EMBEDDED LIGHTNING FROM THE CURRY AND COOS
COUNTY COAST NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. THIS BAND
IS ABOUT TO REACH FLORENCE ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER LIFT AND LIGHTNING
APPEARS TO HAVE EASED FOR THE MOMENT. THE SECOND AREA IS ORIGINATING
ALONG THE COLUMBIA/COWLITZ/WAHKIAKUM BORDERS AND STRETCHES NORTH
WELL INTO THE PUGET SOUND AREA. THIS AREA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND IS BRINGING MUCH STRONGER
SHOWER ACTIVITY AND INCREASING LIGHTNING ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF
OUR AREA.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE A BIT FAST IN LIFTING THE LOW NORTHEAST AS
COMPARED TO REALITY AND THIS HAS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED THE FORECAST.
A DRY SLOT IS ORIENTED N-S BETWEEN THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
WHICH IS AT LEAST HELPING GET A VISUAL ON THE MARINE STRATUS PUSHING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR...BUT AT THE SAME TIME MAY GIVE BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR THE STRATUS TO BURN OFF EARLIER. THIS GIVES A SOMEWHAT BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP GIVEN LESS MID AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER AND BETTER SURFACE HEATING TO BREAK A LOW LEVEL MARINE
INFLUENCED CAP. PREVIOUS GRIDS HAD THUNDER GENERALLY NON-SURFACE
BASED GIVEN THE UPPER LOW CORE MOVING OVERHEAD THIS MORNING AND THEN
ONLY FOR THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE MARINE INFLUENCE WAS
FAR WEAKER. BUT GIVEN THE SLOWER TIMING OF THE LOW MOVEMENT...HAVE
GENERALLY PUSHED THE TS THREAT AREA BACK TO THE WEST FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO COVER THE I-5 CORRIDOR AS WELL AS THE
CASCADES. OUR AREA APPEARS TO DODGE THE BETTER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW AND THE UPPER JET AS THEY DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY.
THUS DO NOT BELIEVE THERE WILL BE MUCH ORGANIZATION TO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. DO CONTINUE TO BELIEVE OUR WASHINGTON
ZONES WILL HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT MODEST RAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS THE LOW CENTER FILLS AND TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN
WAVE. LATEST HRRR AND THE SUITE OF CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS HAVE
BROUGHT A SIGNIFICANT AIR OF UNCERTAINTY INTO THE PICTURE FOR AREAS
SOUTH OF THE PORTLAND METRO HOWEVER. THEY ARE INDICATING A MUCH MORE
ISOLATED PICTURE OF POTENTIAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING EVEN A TENTH OF AN
INCH.
PRECIP WILL LIKELY SHUT OFF RATHER QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER
LOW AND TROUGH AXIS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT TO SEE VERY LITTLE
REMAINING IN OUR NORTHERN AREAS COME SUNRISE UNDER THE LAST VESTIGES
OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. FLOW THEN TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AS A BROAD
TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS INTERIOR CANADA. OUR REGION WILL REMAIN NEAR
THE WEAK UPPER JET ASSOCIATED WITH THE PARENT LOW AREA. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TODAY AS
THE COOLEST DAY OF THE UPCOMING THREE BUT STILL WARMING TO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S ON SUNDAY. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL BUILD UP THE COAST
WITH BREEZY WINDS EXPECTED MAINLY AT THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST BY
SATURDAY EVENING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. /JBONK
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO CHANGES MADE
ALTHOUGH WILL NOTE THE 00Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED THE EARLY WEEK LOW A BIT
FURTHER INLAND AND WITH A DRIER SOLUTION THAN THAN THE GFS. PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST MODELS HAVE COME TO A
STRONG CONSENSUS THAT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE
PAC NW ON MON INTO TUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL COME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO EXACTLY HOW FAR SOUTH THE TROUGH WILL DIG. THE MODEL ENSEMBLE
MEANS AND THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS BRING THE TROUGH
QUICKLY THROUGH AS AN INSIDE SLIDER TYPE OF SYSTEM. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WOULD BE INCREASED ONSHORE FLOW AND TEMPERATURES COOLING BACK INTO
THE 70S. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME SUPPORT FOR THE TROUGH TO DEVELOP
INTO ANOTHER OFFSHORE CLOSED LOW...WHICH SLOWS THE PROGRESSION
CONSIDERABLY. FOR NOW...WILL NOT ADD TOO MUCH DETAIL TO THE FCST
BEYOND TUE UNTIL WE SEE BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE COMING DAYS.
PYLE
&&
.AVIATION...MARINE STRATUS HAS PUSHED INLAND EARLY THIS MORNING.
COASTAL STRATUS IS PREDOMINANTLY HOLDING WITH MVFR CIGS WITH
OCCASIONAL DROPS TO IFR...EXCEPT KONP WHERE LOWER STRATUS IS
REDUCING CIGS TO LIFR. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA ARE STAYING 10
NM OFFSHORE BUT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. INLAND CIGS ARE CURRENTLY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR BUT SHOULD
LOWER TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS STRATUS
BECOMES MORE SOLID ACROSS THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. MODELS NOW SHOW
MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY MUCH LATER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS
BETWEEN 14Z-16Z THAT COULD MAKE THERE WAY NORTHWARD THROUGH KEUG
AND KSLE. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 18Z MAINLY
IMPACTING NORTHERN INLAND TAF SITES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TSRA WITH THESE SHOWERS...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR TSRA
WILL BE ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER FOR
ISOLATED TSRA WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS INLAND.
CIGS AT COASTAL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO PREDOMINANTLY MVFR LATE
THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS MOVE INLAND. CIGS INLAND WILL IMPROVE TO
PREDOMINANTLY VFR FURTHER SOUTH LATE THIS MORNING AND NORTHERN
SITES SHOULD STAY A MIX OF VFR/MVFR UNTIL SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...PREDOMINANTLY MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING WITH A
MIX OF VFR/MVFR LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS
EXPECTED TO START TO MOVE THROUGH AROUND 16Z-18Z WITH LOWER
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TO PREDOMINANTLY VFR
AROUND 00Z-03Z SATURDAY AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST. ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE...BUT DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY.
-MCCOY
&&
.MARINE...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS AROUND 3 TO 5 FT THIS
MORNING. SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
WILL CLEAR OUT BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES ONSHORE. A MODERATE SURGE OF S-SW WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 15 TO
20 KT IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW MOVES ONSHORE THIS MORNING. WINDS
WILL THEN SHIFT TO WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN OVER THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WITH THE
RETURN OF NORTHERLY WINDS...FRESH SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS TO 5 TO 6
FT THIS EVENING.
THERMAL LOW OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA REDEVELOPS ON SATURDAY...WHICH
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL START TO GENERATE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL OREGON WATERS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST WINDS IF NOT STEEP SEAS. WITH
GUSTY WINDS SEAS COULD BECOME STEEP WITH WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
7 FT AND WAVE PERIODS AROUND 7 TO 8 SECONDS. SUNDAY GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS SPREAD NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE NORTH OREGON AND
SOUTH WASHINGTON WATERS WHICH COULD AGAIN WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR AT LEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. -MCCOY
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.
&&
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1000 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK CONTINUES TO CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
MORNING. WITH THE INCREASING SUNSHINE...FORECAST HIGH TEMPS STILL
SEEM REASONABLE. IF ANYTHING...MAY NEED TO BUMP HIGHS UP A COUPLE
DEGREES GIVEN HOW WARM MODEL 925 MB TEMPS ARE.
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WEAK WAVES MOVES THROUGH. MODELS VARY ON THE EXTENT OF
INSTABILITY THOUGH...DEPENDING ON WHAT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL
BE. THINK GFS IS MIXING TOO MUCH...WHILE NAM IS PROBABLY A BIT TOO
MOIST AT THE SURFACE. WILL PROBABLY END UP SEEING CAPE VALUES
BETWEEN WHAT THOSE TWO MODELS SUGGEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR
A FEW STORMS GIVEN ENOUGH LIFT. LATEST HRRR SHOWS QUITE A BIT OF
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
COULD SEE SOME FOG IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW
LYING AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SATURDAY.
STILL THINK A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
WAVE MOVES THROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT TO FORM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH
IN THE EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
A COUPLE MODELS ARE FIRING OFF A FEW STORMS IN THE EAST SATURDAY
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY
DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING LEANS EASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015/
SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM
CURRENT POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN SW LOWER MICHIGAN BACK
ACROSS SRN LAKE MICHIGAN IN REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH...WITH VERY LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES FROM SE
MN INTO SW WI DRIVEN BY CVA OF WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING SE OUT OF SE
MN...AND LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES IN N CENTRAL WI AHEAD OF ANOTHER
WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT REACHES THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF MN BY 12Z...
AND EQUALLY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
FIRST AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES OVER SW PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING. THEN
QUIET UNTIL SHORT WAVE TO THE NORTH DROPS ACROSS NE WISCONSIN AND
CENTRAL LAKE MICHIGAN INTO LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
DEEPLY MIXED FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE UNSTABLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT ALSO VERY DRY. CLOUD BASES
WOULD BE UP AROUND 7K TO 8K FT. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE NORTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE CHANCE/SCATTERED CATEGORY WITH BETTER
FORCING WITH SHORT WAVE...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF.
INVERTED V SOUNDING WOULD INDICATE GUSTY WINDS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM...WHICH SUPPORTS SPC MARGINAL AREA IN THE
DAY 1 OUTLOOK. PRECIP SHOULD BE SOUTH OF AREA BY MIDNIGHT..BUT WILL
LINGER SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS SURFACE TROUGH
IS SLOW TO PUSH OUT OF REGION.
925MB TEMPS SUPPORT WARM HIGHS AROUND 90...THOUGH CLOUDS AND PCPN MAY
LIMIT MAXES A BIT. MUGGY LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S WITH SOME FOG
POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STRETCH OF WARM AND DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
WI THIS WEEKEND. A BAGGY SURFACE GRADIENT ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW FOR
A LAKE BREEZE. BY SUNDAY... A SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH
IN SOUTHERN WI. THE WINDS WILL KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE FROM AFFECTING
LAKESHORE AREAS.
THE MAJORITY OF MODELS ARE POSTPONING ANY PRECIP ARRIVING IN
SOUTHERN WI UNTIL MONDAY MORNING INSTEAD OF SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
EXTENSIVE DRY AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES THAT IT WILL HAVE TO
OVERCOME... TRIMMED BACK POPS.
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
A COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON
SATURDAY. MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY CORRESPONDING WITH THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT... ALONG WITH THE 850MB BAROCLINIC ZONE... WILL STALL
OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WI ON MONDAY. THAT FRONT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE
SOUTH AND BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTHERN WI. TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD HAVE QUIET WEATHER SINCE THERE
WILL BE A LACK OF FORCING.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON... WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SURFACE LOW APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT PLAINS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTHERN WI. AN AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST SHOULD BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
STALLED OVER SOUTHERN WI WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE MANY TIMING AND LOCATION
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS SO EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO THE
EXTENDED FORECAST.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...NOT AS WINDY TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. LOOKING FOR ANOTHER
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER CLOUD
BASES WILL BE HIGH...SO ONLY EXPECT MVFR VSBYS WITH ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT REACH A TAF SITE...WITH EASTERN LOCATIONS HAVING
THE BETTER CHANCE THAN THE WEST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORM WHICH SUPPORTS SPC MARGINAL
AREA IN THE DAY 1 OUTLOOK. ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
TONIGHT...ENHANCED IN LOCATIONS THAT DO SEE RAIN TODAY...FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
355 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
CURRENTLY...
SCTD STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ONE
ROUGE SHOWER WAS OVER NORTHERN BENT COUNTY. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. LLVL MSTR IS A BIT LESS TODAY THEN PAST
DAYS...AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE CAPE OVER THE REGION AS VALUES
WERE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE YDAY...HRRR HAS BEEN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH CONVECTION
TODAY. EARLIER RUNS WERE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. HRRR STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS IS STILL CONCEIVABLY POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW PLAYED UP POPS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR THE PLAINS...BELIEVE LARGE
MAJORITY OF PLAINS (AWAY FROM THE MTNS) WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A
ROUGE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS. ANY STORM OVER THE REGION TODAY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATELLITE WAT VAPOR IMGY STILL
SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OVER THE AREA. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE
THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS IN WHICH IT RAINED HEAVILY LAST NIGHT.
FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD COME
TO AN END AS LITTLE FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY...
WX SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX AS UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
STAGNANT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND WEAK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. . MOST PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MTNS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LONGER TERM WITH POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
BEING PRIMARY CONCERNS.
INITIALLY...RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE 12Z/14TH GFS40 SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT
A RELATIVELY HEALTHY UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY MORNING MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z/14TH ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES THAT
A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UTAH/NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO REGION TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATER
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE SURGES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE TO ABUNDANT DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...SURFACE SURGES/BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVE POPS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IF THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION IS ACCURATE. STORMS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MAY BE INTENSE/STRONG
AT TIMES. THEN...WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE NOTED BY
LATE WEEK. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SHOULD GENERALLY RUN AT OR ABOVE MID-AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...WITH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF BEING NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY
ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 354 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS NEXT 24H. CANT RULE OUT A TSRA OR TWO AT THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE UP AT KCOS. KPUB WILL
LIKELY...AT LEAST...SEE GUSTY NW OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 00Z TODAY.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
CURRENTLY...
SCTD STORMS WERE NOTED OVER MAINLY THE HIGHER TRRN AT 3 PM. ONE
ROUGE SHOWER WAS OVER NORTHERN BENT COUNTY. ISOLD TSRA WERE OVER THE
HIGH VALLEYS. TEMPS WERE MAINLY IN THE 90S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH
80S IN THE VALLEYS. LLVL MSTR IS A BIT LESS TODAY THEN PAST
DAYS...AND THIS IS EVIDENT IN THE CAPE OVER THE REGION AS VALUES
WERE LESS THAN 1000 J/KG OVER THE ENTIRE REGION.
REST OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
UNLIKE YDAY...HRRR HAS BEEN HAVING A BIT OF TROUBLE WITH CONVECTION
TODAY. EARLIER RUNS WERE MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE-WISE EARLIER IN THE
DAY...AND THIS HAS NOT HAPPENED. HRRR STILL HAS QUITE A BIT OF
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE ENTIRE PIKES PEAK REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND THIS IS STILL CONCEIVABLY POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW PLAYED UP POPS ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS FOR THE PLAINS...BELIEVE LARGE
MAJORITY OF PLAINS (AWAY FROM THE MTNS) WILL REMAIN DRY...BUT A
ROUGE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. MORE ISOLD PRECIP WILL BE OVER THE
REST OF THE HIGHER TRRN AND VALLEYS. ANY STORM OVER THE REGION TODAY
COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SATELLITE WAT VAPOR IMGY STILL
SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OVER THE AREA. AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WILL BE
THE BURN SCARS AND AREAS IN WHICH IT RAINED HEAVILY LAST NIGHT.
FOR LATER THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...BELIEVE ALL PRECIP SHOULD COME
TO AN END AS LITTLE FORCING IS AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
SATURDAY...
WX SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAYS WX AS UPPER PATTERN WILL BE
STAGNANT NEXT 24-36 HOURS AND WEAK NW FLOW WILL CONTINUE IN THE MID
LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. . MOST PRECIP WILL BE TIED TO THE MTNS WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAYS MAX TEMPS. /HODANISH
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
RELATIVELY ACTIVE METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN ANTICIPATED DURING THE
LONGER TERM WITH POPS...TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES
BEING PRIMARY CONCERNS.
INITIALLY...RECENT COMPUTER SIMULATIONS INDICATE THE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA SATURDAY NIGHT SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THURSDAY...WHILE ZONAL
TO NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE FORECAST
DISTRICT FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS THEN BEGIN TO
DIVERGE WITH THE 12Z/14TH GFS40 SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT
A RELATIVELY HEALTHY UPPER DISTURBANCE LOCATED OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA TUESDAY MORNING MOVES ACROSS WISCONSIN BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING INTO QUEBEC PROVINCE CANADA BY LATER IN
THE WEEK. IN CONTRAST...THE 12Z/14TH ECMWF SOLUTION INDICATES THAT
A CLOSED UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UTAH/NORTHWESTERN
COLORADO REGION TUESDAY SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO BY LATER
THURSDAY BEFORE PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THURSDAY EVENING.
AT THE SURFACE...SEVERAL NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE SURGES
ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR SENSIBLE
WEATHER...THE COMBINATION OF ADEQUATE TO ABUNDANT DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE...SURFACE SURGES/BOUNDARIES AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
SHOULD ALLOW ACTIVE POPS AT TIMES FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO
MONDAY NIGHT AND POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IF THE LATEST
ECMWF SOLUTION IS ACCURATE. STORMS DURING THIS TIME-FRAME WILL BE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MAY BE INTENSE/STRONG
AT TIMES. AS ALWAYS...WFO PUEBLO WILL MONITOR CLOSELY.
LONGER TERM TEMPERATURES OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
DISTRICT SHOULD GENERALLY RUN AT OR ABOVE MID-AUGUST
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES...WITH MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY HAVING THE
HIGHEST POTENTIAL OF BEING NEAR TO POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE. IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY GRADIENT WINDS MAY
ALSO BE OBSERVED AT TIMES FROM LATER TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...PRIMARILY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL 3 TAF SITES...KPUB...KALS
AND KCOS NEXT 24H. CANT RULE OUT A TSRA OR TWO AT THE TAF SITES
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE UP AT KCOS. KPUB WILL
LIKELY...AT LEAST...SEE GUSTY NW OUTFLOW WINDS AFTER 00Z TODAY.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
BUMPED UP POPS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR REGION FOR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HRRR SHOWING BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP THIS
REGION FOR LATER ON TODAY. /HODANISH
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST STARTS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT SLC...GJT AND DEN
WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT ABQ WITH PWATS AROUND 1/2 INCH LAST
NIGHT.
WITH NO EVIDENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...THE LATEST MODELS...INCLUDING HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC...ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. WITH TERRAIN INDUCED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENTS PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS SAT...WHICH SUGGESTS
MAXES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FRIDAY`S NUMBERS. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS) SUN...FORECAST CAPES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY
EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM I25 EASTWARD. FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS...WITH READINGS DRIFTING DOWN JUST A DEGF OR TWO FROM SAT.
MOIST PLUME THINS SLIGHTLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY WRN CO AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HOLD ON TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED/SCT POPS MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MAX TEMPS MON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD.
FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD DEPENDS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH QUICK PEEK AT 06Z GFS
SHOWS A FASTER TROUGH THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION. CONCEPTUALLY...SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE ONE WE WOULD SEE IN SEPT/OCT...WITH STRONG W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM SHOVING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL
EAST...LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. COLD FRONT
THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUE OR WED...WITH UPSLOPE SURGE PERHAPS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER WEST. IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD
LINGER WED INTO THU AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT...THOUGH GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FASTER 00Z EURO/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. FORECAST TUE INTO THU IS
RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A
GRADUALLY COOLING TREND WED-THU AS TROUGH PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EACH TAF SITE (KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE BEST THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCOS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AT KPUB...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AERODROME AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STORMS IN AND AROUND KALS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HODANISH
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1136 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO WITH UPPER RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AT THIS TIME. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATING SHORT WAVE TRANSLATING DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS WHICH HAS KEPT SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE BROAD UPPER HIGH IN PLACE
ACROSS THE ROCKIES IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST INTO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...AS AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
UPPER TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE OF THE PAC NW COAST STARTS TO MOVE INLAND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. AMPLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS
IN PLACE UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS
RUNNING AROUND 1 INCH (150 PERCENT OF NORMAL) AT SLC...GJT AND DEN
WITH SOME DRIER AIR NOTED AT ABQ WITH PWATS AROUND 1/2 INCH LAST
NIGHT.
WITH NO EVIDENT DISTURBANCE WITHIN THE FLOW ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY...THE LATEST MODELS...INCLUDING HIGHER RES HRRR AND RUC...ARE
INDICATING CONVECTION TO BE TIED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH BEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MTS. WITH TERRAIN INDUCED
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEVELOPING WEAK WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...SHOULD SEE A FEW STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE ADJACENT
PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. FURTHER EAST
ACROSS THE PLAINS...SOUNDINGS INDICATING A WEAK CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THOUGH CANT RULE OUT A FEW POSSIBLE STORMS
WITH POSSIBLE OUTFLOWS. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TODAY...WITH
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW...TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TODAY...THOUGH STILL AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL WITH 80S TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND MAINLY
60S AND 70S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
CONVECTION LOOKS TO DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF SOLAR HEATING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAINING AT AND ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS SOMEWHAT ON SAT AS STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
STATE SAT/SAT NIGHT...WITH YET ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO AS WESTERLY
STEERING CURRENTS PUSH MOUNTAIN CONVECTION ONTO THE PLAINS IN THE
EVENING. NOT MUCH CHANGE IN MID LEVEL TEMPS SAT...WHICH SUGGESTS
MAXES WITHIN A COUPLE DEGF OF FRIDAY`S NUMBERS. AS UPPER TROUGH
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUN...ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS SUN
AFTERNOON...PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR INCREASED TSRA
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER. WHILE
0-6KM SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK (20-30 KTS) SUN...FORECAST CAPES ALONG
AND JUST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY CLIMB ABOVE 2000 J/KG BY
EVENING...SUGGESTING STRONG STORMS/HEAVY RAIN A
POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY FROM I25 EASTWARD. FRONT WILL LIKELY
ARRIVE LATE ENOUGH IN THE DAY TO HAVE ONLY A SMALL IMPACT ON MAX
TEMPS...WITH READINGS DRIFTING DOWN JUST A DEGF OR TWO FROM SAT.
MOIST PLUME THINS SLIGHTLY ON MON...ESPECIALLY WRN CO AS WESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS HOLD ON TO
PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY LURKING
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE ARKANSAS RIVER DURING THE DAY. WILL CONTINUE
WITH ISOLATED/SCT POPS MOST AREAS MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS
INFLUX OF DRIER AIR OVER WESTERN SECTIONS WON`T BE ENOUGH TO SHUT
DOWN CONVECTION COMPLETELY. MAX TEMPS MON WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT
DOWNWARD AS UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT SOUTHWESTWARD.
FORECAST FROM TUE ONWARD DEPENDS ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S.
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN GENERAL...GFS HAS BEEN DEEPER AND SLOWER
WITH THE SYSTEM THAN THE ECMWF...THOUGH QUICK PEEK AT 06Z GFS
SHOWS A FASTER TROUGH THAN ITS 00Z SOLUTION. CONCEPTUALLY...SYSTEM
LOOKS LIKE ONE WE WOULD SEE IN SEPT/OCT...WITH STRONG W-SW WINDS
AHEAD OF DIGGING SYSTEM SHOVING MONSOON MOISTURE WELL
EAST...LEADING TO LESS IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION TUE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH TIMING WILL BE AN ISSUE. COLD FRONT
THEN SWINGS THROUGH LATE TUE OR WED...WITH UPSLOPE SURGE PERHAPS
BRINGING PRECIP BACK TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...WITH
LESSER CHANCES FARTHER WEST. IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...PRECIP COULD
LINGER WED INTO THU AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO LIFT OUT...THOUGH GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FASTER 00Z EURO/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS...CONFIDENCE IN
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS LOW. FORECAST TUE INTO THU IS
RATHER GENERIC FOR NOW...WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND A
GRADUALLY COOLING TREND WED-THU AS TROUGH PASSES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1106 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT EACH TAF SITE (KPUB...KALS AND
KCOS) THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...HOWEVER THE BEST THREAT
FOR STORMS WILL BE AT KCOS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
AT KPUB...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY CROSS THE AERODROME AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. STORMS IN AND AROUND KALS
WILL BE MORE ISOLATED. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24H.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1132 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
1130 AM CDT
HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES AND POPS TODAY.
UPPER WAVE OVER THE AREA HAS BEEN GENERATING WIDELY ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. BUT MORE IMPORTANTLY...MIDLEVEL
OVERCAST HAS GREATLY SLOWED WARMING TREND. CLOUDS WILL ERODE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND ENABLE TEMPS TO WARM...BUT LIKELY FALLING A FEW
DEGREES SHORT OF PREVIOUS FORECAST. EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S/84
TO 88 RANGE. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL REACH THE LOWER 90S
DUE TO DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
THE LOWER TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY ALSO LIMIT ALREADY LOW
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING RAOBS AT DVN/ILX
SHOWED A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED CAP AT 800 MB AT BASE OF EML AND
CONVECTIVE TEMP OF 91-92 DEGREES DUE TO THIS CAP. WEAK UPPER WAVE
WILL SHIFT SOUTH DOWN THE LAKE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...BUT IS MAINLY EXPECTED TO GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION
IN WISCONSIN...WITH MAYBE SOME WIDELY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN CWA. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ON RECENT RUNS OF RAP/HRRR
ARE IN ALL LIKELIHOOD DUE TO EXTREME WARM BIAS/FORECAST HIGHS
AROUND 100 AND LOW DEWPOINT BIAS CAUSING AUTOCONVECTION AND THEN
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ON SPURIOUS COLD POOLS. HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS
GUIDANCE IN FAVOR OF A MAINLY DRY FORECAST...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.
RC
&&
.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WESTERLY WINDS 7-9 KT THROUGH 19Z THEN MORE COMMONLY AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AREA AFTER 22Z.
MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY 19Z.
* MEDIUM IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1117 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
351 AM CDT
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE WITH THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL AND TIMING...AS WELL AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
ANALYSIS OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA SHOWS THE UPPER PATTERN IS
DOMINATED BY AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...AND
A LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST. IN
BETWEEN...NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WAS ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION... WITH SEVERAL SMALLER AMPLITUDE
SHORT WAVES NOTED PROPAGATING THROUGH THE FLOW. TWO OF THESE WERE
EVIDENT ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN LAKES THIS
MORNING...ONE ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES WAS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
SHRA/TSRA FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOIST CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION...AND ANOTHER WEAKER FEATURE
OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WAS PRODUCING ELEVATED
SHRA FROM A MID-DECK. OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...THE HIGH-RES
HRRR-EXP AND THE 4KM NCEP WRF SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE OVERALL
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TRENDS THE BEST OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THEIR FORECASTS FOR PRECIP
TRENDS THROUGH MID-DAY WITH ISOLATED SHRA ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA
EARLY THIS AM...AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA SPREADING ACROSS
NORTHERN IL GENERALLY NORTH OF THE ILLINOIS/KANKAKEE RIVER VALLEYS
DURING THE MORNING. COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT AND HAVE
LIMITED POPS TO 20 PERCENT. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD WANE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS BOTH OF THESE SHORT WAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN.
CURRENT GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
UPSTREAM ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHWEST ONTARIO
HOWEVER...WHICH MODELS BRING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN LAKES
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST FORCING WITH
THIS FEATURE REMAINS LARGELY NORTHEAST OF THE CWA ACROSS WI...LAKE
MICHIGAN AND LOWER MICHIGAN STATE...THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE (4KM NCEP
WRF AND 4KM SPC WRF-NMM) DOES DEVELOP ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM ROUGHLY ROCKFORD TO SOUTHERN PARTS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONTAL
FEATURE WHICH SAGS INTO SOUTHERN WI/LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAPPING IN PLACE WITH WARM TEMPS
IN THE 900-800 MB LAYER...WITH 1500-2500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE BY LATE AFTERNOON. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF LOW LEVEL FOCUS NOTED FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH STORMS COULD PROPAGATE ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM INITIATION ACROSS WI. CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LOW
IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT WITH SOME GUIDANCE SUPPORT AND SPC DAY 1
MARGINAL SEVERE INTO FAR NORTHERN IL...WILL CARRY MENTION OF
ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON EXPECTED IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH 925 MB
TEMPS IN THE +21/22 C RANGE. PROGGED WESTERLY 950 MB WINDS 8-12
KTS SHOULD LIMIT ANY SIGNIFICANT INLAND PUSH OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. WEAK COLD FRONT/TROUGH BOUNDARY STALLS OUT JUST NORTH
OF THE IL/WI BORDER LATER TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE
AXIS BUILDS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION
DOWNSTREAM OF A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND CANADIAN ROCKIES. SHORT WAVE ENERGY EJECTS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS ONTARIO TO NEAR
JAMES BAY SATURDAY NIGHT. RISING HEIGHTS PORTEND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS
THE REGION...AND LOWER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES THAN TODAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT DEEPER MIXING AND LESS CAPPING
THAN FOR TODAY WHICH COUPLED WITH A WEAKER WIND FIELD ALOFT
BENEATH BUILDING RIDGE SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA DEVELOPMENT ALONG LAKE BREEZE...WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INLAND SLIGHTLY ALONG MAINLY THE IL SHORE. AGAIN WHILE
COVERAGE NOT EXPECTED TO BE GREAT...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP DURING THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS LAKESIDE CHICAGO
METRO COUNTIES. INCREASING 925-850 TEMPS SUPPORT HIGHS AROUND 90
IN MANY SPOTS. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH RESULTING SUBSIDENCE EXPECTED TO
PREVENT TSRA DEVELOPMENT AND PRODUCE EVEN WARMER TEMPS SUNDAY...IN
THE LOWER 90S. AFTERNOON DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND 70...MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO...WILL SUPPORT PEAK
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID 90S THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RATZER
&&
.LONG TERM...
403 AM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
AFTER A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY WARM BUT DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE
PAST WEEK...A PATTERN CHANGE APPEARS ON THE WAY FOR NEXT WEEK AS A
SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS SPREAD WESTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH
ENERGY EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED STATES MONDAY.
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...EVENTUALLY TRAILING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE FRONT DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL IL/IN
TUESDAY. WHILE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING EXIST...GLOBAL GUIDANCE DIG
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH
RESULTS IN NEW SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE PLAINS WHICH
THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND LIFTS THE FRONT
BACK NORTH AND KEEPS THE PRECIP THREAT GOING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
VERY WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH UPPER 80S MONDAY...MODERATING SOMEWHAT TO THE LOW-MID 80S
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY BUT LIKELY REMAINING HUMID WITH FRONT NEARBY TO
THE SOUTH. MID-UPPER 80S WARMTH RETURNS AS THE WARM FRONT RETURNS
NORTH THURSDAY.
RATZER
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 16Z...
* WESTERLY WINDS 7-9 KT THROUGH 19Z THEN MORE COMMONLY AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
* CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STORMS IN THE AREA AFTER 22Z.
MTF
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...
WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED MUCH OF TODAY AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH SAGGING SOUTH ACROSS WISCONSIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE INTO THE 10 TO 12 KT RANGE AND SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH
TO HOLD OFF ANY SIGNIFICANT ADVANCEMENT OF A LAKE BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LAKE BREEZE WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND IF
WINDS END UP TAPERING BELOW 10 KT THIS AFTERNOON THEN THERE MIGHT
BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR THE BOUNDARY TO ADVANCE ACROSS ORD/MDW
TURNING WINDS EASTERLY.
A COUPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIP ARE POSSIBLE TODAY. THIS MORNING...A
FEW SPRINKLES ARE ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SE MN AND S WI
ADVANCING INTO NORTHERN IL. HRRR IS ABOUT THE ONLY MODEL THAT
INITIALIZED AND DOES SHOW A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE MORNING.
CLOUD BASES ARE FAIRLY HIGH WITH THE RADAR ECHOES AND MANY SITES
ARE EITHER NOT REPORTING PRECIP OR JUST REPORTING LIGHT RAIN WITH
NO VSBY RESTRICTION. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PROGGED TO
DROP INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED OR
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS FAIRLY WEAK AND
THERE IS A CAP IN PLACE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN LOW IF ANY TS COVERAGE. PROBABILITY REMAINS TOO LOW AT ANY
GIVEN POINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF FOR NOW.
BMD
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 16Z...
* MEDIUM-HIGH IN WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KT BY 19Z.
* MEDIUM IN DRY/VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MTF
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 00Z SUNDAY-12Z FRIDAY...UPDATED 12Z...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. SW WIND.
SUNDAY...VFR. SW WIND.
MONDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. W WIND.
TUESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. NE WIND.
WEDNESDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. S WIND.
THURSDAY...CHC TSRA. PRIMARILY VFR. SW WIND.
BMD
&&
.MARINE...
242 AM CDT
LOW PRESSURE LIES OVER HUDSON BAY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A
FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.
WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY
WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEHIND
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ON
SATURDAY WITH LAKE BREEZE LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
LAKE...BUT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE STARTING LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT REACHING 30 KT BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS IS IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AS IT
MOVES EAST ACROSS ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN LAKE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH
WINDS TURNING NORTH/NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
BMD
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
249 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE LONG TERM SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.
CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTEMPTING TO PUSH
INTO THE REGION AGAINST STRONG SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...AND LATER IN THE WEEK A DEVELOPING CYCLONE PUSHING OUT
OF THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES. AS A RESULT...POPS WILL BE
REQUIRED MOST PERIODS BUT CANNOT JUSTIFY MORE THAN CHANCE OWING TO
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN SOLUTIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR AND INITIALIZATION REFLECTED THIS WELL WITH FEW CHANGES
REQUIRED.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD...SOME
LOWERING CLOUD LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT STILL VFR.
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE OUTLYING SITES. THIS
DID NOT END UP OCCURRING LAST NIGHT EXCEPT BRIEFLY...BUT DEWPOINTS
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE UP...SO EXPECT MORE TO FORM. LAMP MAY BE
OVERSELLING IT THOUGH AS IT HAS SKIES GOING CLEAR AND THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY EXPLICIT INCLUSION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...NIELD
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD
WILL LARGELY DOMINATE INDIANA WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WEAK
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS OUR STATE MONDAY. AFTER THAT HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
RETURN...AND CONTROL HOOSIER WEATHER UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 1002 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING AND ARE SERVING TO FILTER THE SUNSHINE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. 14Z TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AS A POORLY ORGANIZED UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TRACKS THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE
GENERATING SOME PRECIP OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT YET AGAIN...THE NAM IS OVERDOING DEWPOINTS AND
CONSEQUENTLY MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR LATER TODAY. MODEL
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PLENTY OF DRY AIR BELOW 10KFT FOR
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE DAY WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
THROUGH EARLY EVENING.
DESPITE THE CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA...THINK LOW TO MID 80S
REMAIN ACHIEVABLE FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL INDIANA FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS.
ONLY MADE SUBTLE ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AS A RESULT...INCLUDING
LOWERING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
ZONE AND GRID UPDATES OUT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 240 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THE MODELS AGREE ABOUT A FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CROSSING
LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF STRONG RIDGING. THEY ALSO
AGREE THE ONLY PLACE WHERE FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANGES WILL BE OVER THE NORTH.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ON LAKE MICHIGAN ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 60. THE
MODELS INITIALIZED WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAKE IN THE
LOWER 70S AT 00Z. THIS SUGGESTS THE MODELS MAY HAVE TOO MUCH SURFACE
THROUGHING NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE THEIR QPF IS STRONGLY CONCENTRATED.
CONSIDERING THIS THE POPS WILL BE ON THE BASED ON WHATEVER GUIDANCE
IS LOWEST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THERE DOES NEED TO BE SOME CHANCE
OF RAIN BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE. PARTLY SKIES CAN BE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW COURTESY OF THE WAVE.
STRONG RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE AREA MOST CLEAR FROM LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSE...SUPPORTED BY THE UNDERLYING
THERMAL FIELDS...AND CAN BE USED WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...PARTICULARLY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED...WILL MAKE FOR A LOW CONFIDENCE EXTENDED
FORECAST REGARDING TIMING OF POPS OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...EARLY
ON...ALL MODELS DO AGREE WITH A FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN UPPER
RIDGE DUE TO TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THEY ALSO
ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL INDIANA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SHOULD PUSH THE FRONT BACK TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...LATER IN THE
WEEK...00Z GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF WITH
AN UPPER WAVE THAT THE ECMWF LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR LATE
NEXT THURSDAY. EACH DETERMINISTIC MODEL SIDED CLOSER TO THEIR
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. SO WITH MODEL CLUSTERING NOT GREAT...DID
NOT STRAY FAR FROM THE REGIONAL INITIALIZATION WITH EITHER
TEMPERATURES OR POPS. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET
THERE COULD BE SOME STORMS AROUND MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LESS
CONFIDENCE MID AND LATE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START OFF SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 80S THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES...LOOKS LIKE A WARMUP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MORE HUMIDITY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 14/18Z TAFS/...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUD...SOME
LOWERING CLOUD LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT STILL VFR.
MVFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AT THE OUTLYING SITES. THIS
DID NOT END UP OCCURRING LAST NIGHT EXCEPT BRIEFLY...BUT DEWPOINTS
AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE UP...SO EXPECT MORE TO FORM. LAMP MAY BE
OVERSELLING IT THOUGH AS IT HAS SKIES GOING CLEAR AND THAT APPEARS
UNLIKELY TO OCCUR.
WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES.
ISOLATED THUNDER CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT LATE IN THE PERIOD
BUT CHANCES ARE FAR TOO LOW FOR ANY EXPLICIT INCLUSION.
&&
.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JK
NEAR TERM...RYAN
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...NIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL
310 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT PRODUCED A FEW SPRINKLES AND
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVER MO SUPPORTING WEAK
WAA. AN AREA OF DEVELOPING CU IN NORTHEAST IOWA INDICATED BY
SATELLITE IS OF INTEREST AS A POTENTIAL IGNITION POINT FOR
STORMS...THOUGH LAPS SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR
TO HAMPER THAT PROCESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME FRAME IS THE LOWS CHANCE OF DIURNALLY-
DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HRRR AND RAP SEEM A LITTLE AGGRESSIVE OR AT LEAST TOO FAST IN
DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE CURRENTLY
INDICATES NOT MUCH MORE THAN MODERATE CU. PLENTY OF CAPE IS
AVAILABLE ALTHOUGH SHEAR IS ON THE LOW SIDE FOR ORGANIZED/SEVERE
STORMS. AT THIS POINT PLAN ON FOCUSING LOW POPS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA JUST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS SINCE
DIURNAL FORCING IS THE MAIN DRIVER FOR ISOLATED COVERAGE.
VERY LIGHT WINDS AND DECREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD LEAD TO
SOME PATCHY FOG TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS MORE
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TOMORROW COMPARED TO TODAY WILL LEAD TO HIGHER
MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90. PRECIP CHANCES ARE NIL WITH
NEITHER A FOCUS NOR A TRIGGER AVAILABLE DESPITE A WARM AND HUMID
AIR MASS. WOLF
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY THEN A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAP IN PLACE AND
850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT LEAST 20C. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM UPPER MI TO CENTRAL MN AND THEN TO FAR NW KS. WITH THE CAPPING
ATMOSPHERE AND NO TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION I WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY. MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SOAR TO AROUND
90 OR THE LOWER 90S...WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AT LEAST IN THE MID 90S.
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL IN THE OFFING
BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS...SUCH AS TIMING/INTENSITY OF
STORM SYSTEMS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE VERY INCONSISTENT FROM RUN
TO RUN. OVERALL THE ECMWF IS WETTER THAN THE GFS. IN TERMS OF
SENSIBLE WEATHER IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT THEN THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS ENTIRE WEEK...AND THE CURRENT GRIDS SUPPORT
THIS IDEA. BASICALLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AN
EAST-WEST SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MEANDERING OVER THE CWA. WAVES IN
THE FLOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE BOUNDARY...AND A WARM MOIST
AIR MASS...TO PRODUCE PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS INDICATES A RATHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/INTENSIFYING CYCLONE IN THE MIDWEST BY MID WEEK...AND THEN
DRY AFTERWARDS. IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME WHICH MODEL HAS THE BEST
HANDLE ON THE UPSTREAM ENERGY. THEREFORE...IT IS TOO EARLY FOR
DETAILS CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL DUE TO
THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE
WEEK WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 60S.
HAASE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FOR A FEW HOURS
CENTERED AROUND SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT AREA TERMINALS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING WILL REMAIN TO OUR EAST. WOLF
&&
.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...WOLF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
TWO CONCERNS OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HRS WITH THE PRIMARY HAZARD HEAT
INDICES...WITH A SECONDARY HAZARD OF ISOLD TSRA ALONG A WEAKENING
FRONT SAGGING S/SE ACROSS MPX NORTH/NE CWA.
ANY CLDS THIS MORNING SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SE WHICH BRINGS
FULL SUNSHINE FOR A FEW HRS BEFORE CUMULUS CLDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP BY
NOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S BY NOON WITH
DEW PTS ARND 65-70. THIS LEADS TO HEAT INDICES OVER 90 DEGREES BY
LATE MORNING...THEN HOLDING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DURING THE AFTN.
EVEN SOME 100 DEGREE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN WC MN
WHERE ACTUAL TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID 90S. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE MORNING
HWO WILL THE CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S.
ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING FRONT WAS ACROSS NORTHERN MN EARLY THIS
MORNING...THIS FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG BY THE
AFTN...WILL LEAD TO ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE SFC CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SOME OF THE CAMS DUE SUPPORT ISOLD TSRA
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT SAGS TO THE S/SE ACROSS CENTRAL/EC MN AND
INTO WC WI. DUE TO THE AMT OF MIXING IN THE LOWEST 10K... THESE
STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE HIGH BASES. IN ADDITION...PWAT VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE TODAY AS DRIER AIR AT MID LEVELS /WHICH IS
NOTED IN THE CURRENT WV IMAGERY/ MOVES OVER MN/WC WI. I CAN NOT RULE
OUT A STRONG STORM THIS AFTN BUT OVERALL ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL BE VERY ISOLD. NO CHGS OVERNIGHT AS ANY TSRA THIS AFTN WILL
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
THE LONG TERM STARTS WARM AND HUMID BUT A FRONT WILL COOL DOWN
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALSO BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...SATURDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY
WITH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 90 IN MANY LOCATIONS AND LIKELY
EXCEEDING 90 IN MANY SPOTS IN MINNESOTA - WISCONSIN SHOULD BE JUST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. IN FACT...GIVEN THE DRIER FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
SMILIER VERTICAL TEMP PROFILES COMPARED TO TODAY...SATURDAY COULD BE
A BIT WARMER THAN TODAY - SO WE MIGHT NEED TO BOOST OUR SATURDAY
HIGH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES EITHER TODAY OR TONIGHT. IN TERMS OF
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES...THIS SUMMER HAS BEEN FAIRLY VANILLA WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE OSCILLATIONS OR DYNAMIC SYSTEMS.
THEREFORE...WE ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR TEMPS THE PAST 2.5 MONTHS.
WITH THE HEAT RIDGE GENERALLY SOUTH AND WEST OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WE HAVE LARGELY BEEN UNCAPPED AND CLOSER TO THE JET...SO
WE`RE RUNNING ABOVE NORMAL ON PRECIP. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY DOSE
OF HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS WITH VERY
FEW 90S OR 70S. THE TWIN CITIES HAS A CHANCE TO DOUBLE ITS NUMBER
OF 90S FOR THE SUMMER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS THE ONLY 90S
OF THE SUMMER SO FAR CAME ON JUNE 9TH AND JULY 17TH. ST. CLOUD
HAS ONLY HAD ONE 90 /JUNE 9TH/ AND EAU CLAIRE HAS YET TO OBSERVE A
90 DEGREE DAY.
SUNDAY WILL ALSO END UP BEING WARM GIVEN THE SLOWER FRONTAL
TIMING...HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER IS A CONCERN AND THE APPROACHING
TROUGH CLOUD KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLIER IN THE DAY
OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING...AND THE FRONT TAKES A LONG TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA. THIS
LEAVES US WITH A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY ON PRECIP TIMING...AND
THERE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A COUPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS COOLER/DRIER AND
SHOULD YIELD HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE
WILL BE A COUPLE COOL NIGHTS IN NORTHERN MN/WI. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS ACTIVE WITH A MID LATITUDE CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS THE
MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AND WE SHOULD GET
SOME RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1204 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS LITTLE
SUPPORT FOR CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON SO TOOK OUT THOSE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WI
LATE TONIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THE MENTION
OUT FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BACK SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY THOUGH THE
PERIOD AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST.
KMSP...NO ADDITIONAL CONCERNS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. TSRA LIKELY/CHC MVFR. WINDS SW 10-15 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA EARLY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS.
TUE...VFR. CHC MVFR/TSRA. WINDS SE 10 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ060>063-068>070.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLT
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
1002 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN
PLACE. LESS STORM COVERAGE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH VERY HOT CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS
THEN FORECAST TO BRING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO TYPICAL SEASONAL LEVELS AFTER MONDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...OVERALL, THE FORECAST THIS MORNING LOOKS GOOD. ONLY MADE A
FEW MINOR EDITS TO POP, WEATHER, AND SKY ACROSS TERRAIN AREAS OF FAR
SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY AND LINCOLN COUNTY, BASED ON THE LAST SEVERAL
RUNS OF THE HRRR. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE
LESS THAN YESTERDAY. IF STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN CLARK
COUNTY, THE STEERING FLOW IS FAVORABLE TO MOVE SOME OF THAT TOWARD
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY. ADDITIONALLY, THE KVEF 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED
A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR CONVECTION, HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND NO
CAPPING AS WE HEAT UP THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL
WAVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ARIZONA THAT MAY HELP INITIATE OR ORGANIZE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD, BUT IT IS RATHER
WEAK. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD HAVE HIGH PRECIP EFFICIENCY,
WITH A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF 14KFT, K INDEX IN THE 30S, PW OF OVER AN
INCH, AND SUB-CLOUD LAYER RH OF 40-50 PERCENT. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
306 AM PDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS FINALLY ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS THE CWA
WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDINESS LEFT OVER. LIGHTNING AND ENHANCED CLOUD
COVER WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE OVER YUMA COUNTY AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER OVER THE PHOENIX AREA IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWEST BUT IT IS
QUESTIONABLE WHETHER IT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR NORTHWEST AS THE CWA.
CLOUDS OVER VEGAS HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SINCE
I ARRIVED FOR WORK 8 HOURS AGO (83 AT 6 PM AND 82 CURRENTLY AT 2
AM). AN INTERESTING SIDE NOTE REGARDING YESTERDAY TEMPERATURES IN
LAS VEGAS...THE LOW OF 77 DEGREES ACTUALLY OCCURRED ROUGHLY 3 1/2
HOURS AFTER THE 1:12 PM HIGH OF 103. THIS LARGE DROP IN TEMPS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VALLEY.
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY HAS LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN MAINTAINS THE MONSOONAL FLOW INTO THE AREA AND
THIS IS SUPPORTED BY A MOIST...UNSTABLE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.
THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY IN THESE AREAS BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NAM BUFR FORECAST SOUNDING SHOWS CAPPING THIS
MORNING OVERCOME BY STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH AN INCH AND
A THIRD PWAT VALUES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
STORMS LATER TODAY IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. WEAK EMBEDDED VORT
MAXES ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT
CURRENT THINKING IS STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY DECREASE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE HIGH
TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...END ANY
CHANCE FOR STORMS.
THE FORECAST CONCERN SHIFTS FROM POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD PRODUCING
STORMS TODAY AND SATURDAY TO EXCESSIVE HEAT SUNDAY. AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT "WATCH" CURRENTLY OUT FOR SUNDAY WILL BE UPGRADED TO AN
EXCESSIVE HEAT "WARNING".
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
MONDAY SHOULD BRING LITTLE TO NO RELIEF FROM THE WEEKEND HOT SPELL
WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
STRONG CLOSED HIGH WILL REMAIN PARKED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY...NEAR YUMA. THE GFS TEMP GUIDANCE SHOWED NO
APPRECIABLE CHANGE FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AND THE MONDAY MAX TEMPS
WERE ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THIS. ALSO...THE 850-700MB MEAN TEMP IS
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 22 DEGREES C OVER LAS VEGAS MONDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN SUNDAY. THIS CORRELATES TO A 110
DEGREE HIGH IN LAS VEGAS BASED ON LOCAL STUDIES. SO...ANY
EXCESSIVELY HOT CONDITIONS SUNDAY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY.
WE WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS A
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS FEATURE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BUT THEY
ALL INDICATE THE GENERAL PATTERN CHANGE WHICH WILL BRING A COOLING
TREND AND GENERALLY DRY WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD LOWER 3-5 DEGREES EACH DAY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND
BOTTOM OUT NEAR NORMAL READINGS BY THURSDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...DIURNAL TYPE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
TODAY EXCEPT FOR WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY FORM IN THE VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD CIGS THIS MORNING WILL GENERALLY BE AOA 15K FEET
BUT COULD BECOME BKN AROUND 10K FEET AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...DIURNAL SURFACE WINDS ACROSS MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND OUTFLOW. ALSO, STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 30KTS AGAIN IN THE OWENS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE BEST OVER MOHAVE, EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO, CLARK AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES TODAY.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PADDOCK
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SALMEN/ADAIR
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
257 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL WAVE OVER VIRGINIA AND NORTH
CAROLINA CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE
ACTUALLY OCCURRED UNDERNEATH THE COMMA...WHERE THE HIGHER
INSTABILITY WAS NOTED ON MSAS OVER THE FAR WESTERN PIEDMONT. THIS IS
WHERE THE CAP WAS WEAKEST BASED ON THE MORNING UPPER-AIR
SOUNDINGS... AND CLOSER TO WHAT THE NAM WAS PORTRAYING IN ITS QPF.
WEAK LIFT IS FORECAST PARTICULARLY BY THE NAM INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND WHILE GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CAPPED TO DEEP
CONVECTION... THOUGH JUST BARELY AT KGSO...THE NAM ERODES ANY CAP
AND THE HRRR WRF GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR MAYBE
EVEN A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. IF THE NAM VERIFIES...
AS THE EVENING WEARS ON ANY ISOLATED SHOWER SHOULD DIMINISH...WITH
AREAS TOWARD THE WESTERN PIEDMONT AND ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT BEING THE LAST TO HAVE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER END. THIS MAKES
SOME SENSE AS THE ORIENTATION OF THE THICKNESSES AND THE THERMAL
WIND IS SUCH THAT MOVEMENT SHOULD BE SLOWLY NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST... SO WHATEVER DEEP CONVECTION MAY BE ABLE TO LINGER
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST MAY MAKE IT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST PIEDMONT OR
GENERATE ON SOME REMNANT WEAK OUTFLOW. OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
MID 60S UNDER AN AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY SKY...SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
GUIDANCE AVERAGE EXPECTING AREAS OF GOOD CLEARING LATE AND SOME
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 50S AS OF THIS WRITING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
LATELY IT SEEMS THAT THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY AND STABLE BASED ON ITS
BUFR SOUNDINGS AND QPF...WHILE THE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE CERTAINLY
MORE UNSTABLE...ERODING ANY CAP DURING THE DAY...WITH SMATTERINGS OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING QPF. THE TREND CONTINUES FOR THE 12Z RUN...AND
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON...IT WOULD SEEM THAT SOME
DEFERENCE TO THE NAM IS WARRANTED ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECT...WITH
LITTLE OVERALL FORCING...DEEP CONVECTION TO BE PRETTY ISOLATED. THE
NAM AND GFS AGREE ON GOOD 850MB UVV OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
IN THE DAY SATURDAY...AND PARTICULARLY IN VICINITY OF INTERSTATE 40
AND 85...WITH AN INCREASE IN 850MB THETA-E VALUES AND K INDICES
WHILE THE 300MB WINDS ALOFT INCREASE OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASE IS NOT GREAT...AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
IS CERTAINLY LIMITED. LOW-LEVEL FORCING IS LIMITED TO MOSTLY A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...AND ANY MID-LEVEL WAVE IS WEAK AS WELL. GFS QPF IS
COMPLETELY DRY...WHEREAS THE NAM SUGGESTS BY 00Z SUNDAY ISOLATED
POCKETS OF QPF ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 DRIFTING SOUTH AND
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. FOR THIS FORECAST WILL NOTE MORE ISOLATED
CHANCES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AREAS LAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY TOWARD THE SANDHILLS AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL PLAIN. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT HIGHS NEAR THE
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS...87 TO 92. OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT OVERALL...SLIGHTLY MORE
NOTICEABLE WITH MIXING LATER SATURDAY MORNING AND NEAR ANY ISOLATED
SHOWERY OUTFLOW LATE IN THE DAY AND DURING THE EVENING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 255 PM FRIDAY...
CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ON
SUNDAY WITH GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TO CLOSE THE
WEEKEND.
WAVE TRAIN OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL EVOLVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL US THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL NUDGE THE WEAK
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS OVER THE OHIO/TN VALLEY EASTWARD INTO
THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY...SHEARING OUT ALONG THE
WAY. RESULTANT DPVA ACROSS THE AREA MAY PROVE ENOUGH WHEN COMBINED
WITH FAVORABLE DIURNAL TIMING TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT UPTICK IN IN
POPS/CONVECTIVE CHANCES LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
AS TROUGHING ASSERTS ITSELF OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
CONUS...HEIGHTS SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE EAST...WHICH SHOULD
BOOST SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO ABOVE NORMAL AND MARK A RETURN TO
MAINLY DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES BY LATE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM...AND MAINLY
NEAR KRWI AND KFAY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES COULD
BRIEFLY FALL BELOW VFR IN FOG. SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOULD BE TOO
ISOLATED AND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS TO PLACE IN
A TAF SITE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT SHOULD
SLOWLY VEER FROM MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THROUGH MONDAY A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT NEAR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG NEAR WHERE IT HAS RAINED OR PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND
KRWI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR. AGAIN...AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR IN
A MOIST AIR MASS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...CBL
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
207 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOST ENHANCED CU OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AROUND NOON UNDERNEATH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE...AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING FAINT BUT PERCEPTIBLE WEAK
ECHOES NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. KINT DEW POINT WAS 66F...AND WHILE THE
KGSO DEW POINT HAD FALLEN TO 63F...AND VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...
WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVING THE KGSO 12Z
SOUNDING...THE CAP AROUND 700MB WILL BE A WEAK ONE AND COULD BE
OVERCOME IN SPOTS. MSAS LIFTED INDEX WAS ALSO HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AROUND -5C. AS A RESULT...NOTED AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS SUGGESTS A LINGERING EVENING
POTENTIAL NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER AND NOTED THAT FOR AN EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE HRRR WRF ALSO CONTINUES TO NOTE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS 86
TO 91.
TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING VORT MAX SHOULD OCCUR. UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
NEAR THE SURFACE...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST LIFTS NWD...RESULTING IN RISING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY. THICKNESSES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PREDICTED TO BE INT HE UPPER 1420S NEAR
1430M...ABOUT 8M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUPPORTS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
BECOME WETTER WITH TIME...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60-LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS IT WILL FEEL HOT
EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.
ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE MANNER OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SUNDAY MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN-SE PERIPHERY...AND DUE TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC INTO
THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER NEXT WEEK...COLLABORATING WITH WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CORRESPONDING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 88-92 EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS
RISING A FEW METERS...COULD SEE A NUDGE UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR WED AND THU IN PRECEEDING DAYS. MORNING MINS WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE IN VICINITY OF SHOWERS
OR AN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSTORM...AND MAINLY
NEAR KRWI AND KFAY LATE TONIGHT WHERE SURFACE VISIBILITIES COULD
BRIEFLY FALL BELOW VFR IN FOG. SHOWERS CURRENTLY SHOULD BE TOO
ISOLATED AND WITH LIMITED CONFIDENCE IN EXACT LOCATIONS TO PLACE IN
A TAF SITE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...SURFACE WINDS UNDER 10KT SHOULD
SLOWLY VEER FROM MOSTLY NORTHEAST TO MOSTLY SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF
THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD.
BEYOND THE 18Z VALID TAF PERIOD...THROUGH MONDAY A FAIRLY PERSISTENT
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED...WITH MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXCEPT NEAR
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...AND PATCHY LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING FOG NEAR WHERE IT HAS RAINED OR PARTICULARLY TOWARD KFAY AND
KRWI. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID-WEEK
WILL RESULT IN SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WHERE THEY OCCUR. AGAIN...AREAS OF
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ALSO OCCUR IN
A MOIST AIR MASS.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
1220 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE LOCATED OVER
PARTS OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. OTHERWISE...SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1220 PM FRIDAY...
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED THE MOST ENHANCED CU OVER THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT AROUND NOON UNDERNEATH THE COMMA HEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL
WAVE...AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING FAINT BUT PERCEPTIBLE WEAK
ECHOES NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER. KINT DEW POINT WAS 66F...AND WHILE THE
KGSO DEW POINT HAD FALLEN TO 63F...AND VALUES SHOULD SLOWLY FALL...
WITH THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND OBSERVING THE KGSO 12Z
SOUNDING...THE CAP AROUND 700MB WILL BE A WEAK ONE AND COULD BE
OVERCOME IN SPOTS. MSAS LIFTED INDEX WAS ALSO HIGHEST IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AROUND -5C. AS A RESULT...NOTED AN ISOLATED SHOWER
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST
NAM AND TO SOME DEGREE THE GFS SUGGESTS A LINGERING EVENING
POTENTIAL NEAR THE YADKIN RIVER AND NOTED THAT FOR AN EARLY
AFTERNOON UPDATE. THE HRRR WRF ALSO CONTINUES TO NOTE ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 1. 1000-850MB
THICKNESS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MOS GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHS 86
TO 91.
TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM ANY EARLY EVENING ISOLATED SHOWER...SKIES
SHOULD BECOME CLEAR AS SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SLOWLY
DEPARTING VORT MAX SHOULD OCCUR. UNDER A RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS
NEAR THE SURFACE...MIN TEMPS IN THE LOW-MID 60S SHOULD OCCUR.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM FRIDAY...
TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE THE L/W TROUGH ALONG THE
EAST COAST LIFTS NWD...RESULTING IN RISING MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS.
THIS PATTERN SUGGEST A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPS AS THE
AIR MASS WILL BECOME GRADUALLY WARMER EACH DAY. THICKNESSES BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON PREDICTED TO BE INT HE UPPER 1420S NEAR
1430M...ABOUT 8M ABOVE NORMAL. THIS SUPPORTS AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90-
LOWER 90S. WHILE THE NEAR SURFACE AIR MASS IS PREDICTED TO SLOWLY
BECOME WETTER WITH TIME...AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 SATURDAY...AND NEAR 60-LOWER 60S
SUNDAY...NOT TOO BAD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS IT WILL FEEL HOT
EACH AFTERNOON THOUGH NOT OPPRESSIVE THANKS TO THE LOWER DEWPOINTS.
ATMOSPHERE PROJECTED TO BE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE MANNER OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE SUNDAY MAY LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
STORM...MAINLY OVER OUR EASTERN-SE PERIPHERY...AND DUE TO ANY
CONVECTION THAT DRIFTS EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC INTO
THE YADKIN RIVER VALLEY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM FRIDAY...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE THE
PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON WEATHER NEXT WEEK...COLLABORATING WITH WEAK MID
TO UPPER LEVEL FORCING THROUGH THE PERIOD TO PRODUCE TEMPERATURES
NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS AND CORRESPONDING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN. MODEST RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE DIRECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
ATLANTIC COAST...WITH SMALL RAIN CHANCES MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST. HIGHS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 88-92 EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL RIDGING STRENGTHENS LATE WEEK WITH HEIGHTS
RISING A FEW METERS...COULD SEE A NUDGE UPWARDS IN THE FORECAST
HIGHS FOR WED AND THU IN PRECEEDING DAYS. MORNING MINS WILL BE
WITHIN A COUPLE OF DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 70.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 940 AM FRIDAY...
HIGH PROBABILITY THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NC
THROUGH SATURDAY. EXPECT A SCATTERED-BROKEN LAYER OF STRATOCU WITH
BASES AROUND 6000FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...WITH MAINLY
AN EASTERLY COMPONENT. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A
WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH AND UNDER A WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER RELATIVE TO
THE REST OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT AND
COASTAL PLAIN THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON OUTPUT FROM CONVECTIVE
ALLOWING GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT A SHOWER WILL
AFFECT ANY OF THE TERMINAL SITES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE FOR THE CHANCE OF EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND POSSIBLY LOW CLOUDS BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...MAY SEE AN INCREASE FOR THE PROBABILITY OF
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DJF
NEAR TERM...DJF/WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...DJF/WSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1153 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.UPDATE...LATEST HRRR PRECIP PROGS, MODEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FORECASTS, AND ONGOING RADAR TRENDS WOULD SEEM TO SUPPORT A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN AFTERNOON POPS FOR SOME SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PARTS OF THE MID STATE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WITH PROBABLY GO WITH
THE MENTION OF "SCATTERED" ACTIVITY AND A 30% POP.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 89 67 90 68 / 20 20 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 88 65 90 66 / 10 20 20 20
CROSSVILLE 83 64 83 64 / 20 20 30 20
COLUMBIA 88 66 90 67 / 20 20 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 88 66 89 68 / 20 20 20 20
WAVERLY 88 65 89 67 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
19
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Saturday)
Well, models continue to indicate at least slight chance PoPs for
the next 24 hours. Northerly flow aloft will continue for the next
24 hours, and create the potential for showers and thunderstorms.
The HRRR indicates isolated convection, across all of West Central
Texas until around midnight. For consistency, continuing slight
chance PoPs for all of tonight and tomorrow looks reasonable;
however, convection beyond midnight until around early afternoon
tomorrow, may be very spotty. The primary hazards, for the next 24
hours, are wind gusts and deadly lightning. With cloud bases around
10K above ground level, micro bursts may produce wind gusts around
45 mph.
Huber
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Friday)
Upper high pressure will weaken early next week. This will allow a
moderation in highs...into the mid 90s. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms returns the second half of next week, as West
Central Texas will be an upper trough...between upper high
pressure over the Southeast and Southwest United States. A weak
cold front Wednesday night and Thursday will also provide a low
level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 72 96 73 97 / 20 20 5 5
San Angelo 73 97 73 97 / 20 20 5 5
Junction 72 96 72 96 / 20 20 20 5
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
TH/04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
213 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015
.SHORT TERM...
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS
A WEAK WAVES MOVES THROUGH...THOUGH STRUGGLING TO GET MUCH IN THE
WAY OF CUMULUS RIGHT NOW. HRRR HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON CONVECTION TO
THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH...AND STILL SHOWS
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED POPS FOR NOW.
THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD HANG ON INTO LATE EVENING...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING IS LOST. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THEN LATER IN THE
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE...MAY SEE SOME FOG
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS.
UPPER RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA SATURDAY. TEMPS
ALOFT LOOK FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...SO WENT WITH SIMILAR HIGH
TEMPS. ONLY BIG DIFFERENCE IS NEAR THE LAKE...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE BY AFTERNOON...KEEPING IT FROM GETTING AS HOT AS INLAND. MAY
SEE A FEW STORMS FIRE WITHIN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A CORRIDOR FROM THE SE TO NW
FORECAST AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. OTHERWISE...NOT SEEING A TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE RIDGE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST U.S. ACROSS SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE 700 MB WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND SOUTHERN CANADA...BUT REMAIN WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
850 MB WINDS INCREASE A LITTLE MORE...BUT THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
TO THE NORTH. THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN NEAR 20 CELSIUS AS
THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE. DESPITE STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 6 CELSIUS/KM...WITH
ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE NEAR 700 MB. THEREFORE SUNDAY
SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
925 TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND 28 CELSIUS...SO ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS EXPECTED. MOST PLACES SHOULD GET TO AT LEAST 90. APPEARS STEEP
LAPSE RATES WILL MIX OUT DEW POINTS AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON
THEREFORE HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.
.SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
THE UPPER RIDGE SAGS SOUTH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE U.S. CANADIAN BORDER AREA DROPPING TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN.
AN 115 KNOT 250 MB UPPER JET WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES LATER MONDAY. THIS INCREASES THE UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET. THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BUT COOLS A
LITTLE AS IT DOES. 850 MB DEW POINTS INCREASE TO 10 TO 13 CELSIUS.
THE 850 MB WINDS ARE RATHER WEAK AROUND 20 KNOTS.
A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THIS
PERIOD BUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS SLOWER AND DOES NOT MOVE ACROSS
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN YET ON THE GFS.
ZERO TO 1 KM CAPE IS WEAKER AT ONLY AROUND 500 TO 1000 JOULES/KG
WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.7 CELSIUS/KM. THE GFS HAS
SOME PRECIPITATION MONDAY...BUT IT IS FAIRLY LIGHT.
.LONG TERM...
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST SOUTHWEST AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA.
THE 00Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN OR CENTRAL
ILLINOIS. AS A RESULT THE GFS BRINGS A MODERATE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS MAINLY DRY.
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
THE GFS AND ECMWF MOVES THE TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS
TAKES A STRONG LOW INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. PREFER THE WEAKER AND
SLOWER LOW ON THE ECMWF WHICH BRINGS MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WEDNESDAY.
.THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
A ZONAL FLOW AGAIN DEVELOPS IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING MORE OF A TROUGH NEAR THE
NORTHWEST U.S. FRIDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DRY THURSDAY...WITH THE 12Z GFS
BRINGING A QUICKER SOUTH FLOW AND WARM AIR ADVECTION.
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF KEEP A LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
FRIDAY WITH SOME PRECIPITATION MAINLY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...
STILL THINK A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WAVE
MOVES THROUGH. ANY STORMS THAT TO FORM WILL PROBABLY DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.
COULD SEE SOME FOG IN A FEW SPOTS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING
AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY.
A COUPLE MODELS ARE FIRING OFF A FEW STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. MODELS ARE HIGHLIGHTING A
CORRIDOR FROM THE SE TO NW FORECAST AS HAVING THE BEST CHANCE.
OTHERWISE...LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS STRONG UPPER RIDGING LEANS EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SATURDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...DDV
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...HENTZ