Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/06/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK EAST OF THE AREA...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM TREND LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A HAPPY ATMOSPHERE WITH
LITTLE INCLINATION TOWARD A NEED TO CORRECT THINGS WITH STRONG
CONVECTION. BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE WITH 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CURRENT DRY AND HOT FORECAST
LOOKS SOLID.
AN EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE RIDGE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OVERHEAD
WITH DECLINING MOISTURE TRENDS NOTED ON CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA.
HOWEVER...A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU 04/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT
AGL...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU 05/05Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN AFT
05/05Z. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PCT
RANGE. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM NEARLY OVERHEAD...
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BREEZINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA VALLEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HOT EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING OR TYING RECORD HIGHS. NOT ALL
LOCATIONS IN SE AZ WILL GET INTO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT. BELOW ARE THE
SITES THAT WILL BE AT OR WITHIN THREE DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DATE AUG 04 AUG 05
FCST RCD/YEAR FCST RCD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 107 109/1994 108 108/2009
FORT THOMAS 105 107/1995 106 109/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION 104 106/2009 105 108/1995
WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 107 AT TUCSON AIRPORT TODAY...THIS WILL MARK
THE 7TH TIME SINCE 1895 THAT AUGUST HIT 105 OR HOTTER WHEN IT DIDN`T
OCCUR IN JULY. THE PREVIOUS SIX OCCURRENCES WERE IN
1914/1919/1945/1962/1975 AND 1977.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS IN PART TO THE GRADUAL TOP-DOWN
DRYING THAT WE STARTED BACK ON SUNDAY. A LOOK AT THE UPPER-LEVELS
SHOWS AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A SW-NE ELONGATED 500
MB RIDGE CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A 300
MB HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE RESULTING UPPER-
LEVEL SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH IS
FURTHER BEING AUGMENTED BY WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE END RESULT
WAS A PWAT VALUE OF 0.93 INCH ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WITH SIGNS OF
CONTINUED SCOURING OF MOISTURE FROM THE COLUMN ALL THE WAY TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER THE CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCTS.
BASED ON TRENDS ALONE...WE SHOULD SEE EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAN YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...AM DISCOUNTING THE RECENT HRRR RUNS
WHICH HAVE INSISTED ON DEVELOPING PRECIP IN THE WHITES ALL MORNING
LONG AND SUBSEQUENTLY INITIATING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR NW
AS PINAL COUNTY. THAT SAID...DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE LOW-END SLIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EXTREME EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE WE MAY HOLD ONTO JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO INITIATE A STORM OR TWO TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE UNIV. OF AZ WRF RUNS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR (HRRRX) WHICH
HAS...AT LEAST QUALITATIVELY...BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE OPERATIONAL
HRRR RECENTLY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO NM. AS THIS OCCURS...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL STILL ONLY BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE
BIGGER STORY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SOME 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OUR RECORD HIGH OF 108 (2009) MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL RECORD HEAT PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS OUR MID-LEVEL HIGH ROTATES INTO EASTERN NM
AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE ENSUING SLY/SELY FLOW WILL DRIVE
MOISTURE BACK TO ABOVE-CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS ACROSS SE AZ. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF WE`LL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ON FRIDAY BUT THIS DOES PARTLY HINGE--AS WE SAW LAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY--ON HOW ACTIVE THURSDAY IS. THAT SAID...NUDGED
POPS UP A BIT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NWP SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL KICK THE HIGH A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY
SLOSH FAR ENOUGH WEST ON SUNDAY TO BRING BETTER CHANCES BACK TO
CENTRAL AREAS. THE 04/00Z GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MENTIONED BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT. TIMING THESE SUBTLE FEATURES AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT--EVEN AT SHORT
RANGES. AS SUCH...FOR NOW MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
MEYER
PREV DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
CLIMATE...GLUECK
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
253 AM MST TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL THEN BRING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS IN PART TO THE GRADUAL TOP-DOWN DRYING
THAT WE STARTED BACK ON SUNDAY. A LOOK AT THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOWS AN
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A SW-NE ELONGATED 500 MB RIDGE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A 300 MB HIGH
OVER WEST-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE RESULTING UPPER-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
BEING AUGMENTED BY WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE END RESULT WAS A
PWAT VALUE OF 0.93 INCH ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WITH SIGNS OF
CONTINUED SCOURING OF MOISTURE FROM THE COLUMN ALL THE WAY TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER THE CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCTS.
BASED ON TRENDS ALONE...WE SHOULD SEE EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAN YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...AM DISCOUNTING THE RECENT HRRR RUNS
WHICH HAVE INSISTED ON DEVELOPING PRECIP IN THE WHITES ALL MORNING
LONG AND SUBSEQUENTLY INITIATING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR NW
AS PINAL COUNTY. THAT SAID...DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE LOW-END SLIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EXTREME EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE WE MAY HOLD ONTO JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO INITIATE A STORM OR TWO TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE UNIV. OF AZ WRF RUNS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR (HRRRX) WHICH
HAS...AT LEAST QUALITATIVELY...BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR RECENTLY.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO NM. AS THIS OCCURS...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL STILL ONLY BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE
BIGGER STORY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SOME 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OUR RECORD HIGH OF 108 (2009) MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL RECORD HEAT PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS OUR MID-LEVEL HIGH ROTATES INTO EASTERN NM
AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE ENSUING SLY/SELY FLOW WILL DRIVE
MOISTURE BACK TO ABOVE-CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS ACROSS SE AZ. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF WE`LL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ON FRIDAY BUT THIS DOES PARTLY HINGE--AS WE SAW LAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY--ON HOW ACTIVE THURSDAY IS. THAT SAID...NUDGED
POPS UP A BIT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.
ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NWP SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL KICK THE HIGH A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY
SLOSH FAR ENOUGH WEST ON SUNDAY TO BRING BETTER CHANCES BACK TO
CENTRAL AREAS. THE 04/00Z GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MENTIONED BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT. TIMING THESE SUBTLE FEATURES AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT--EVEN AT SHORT
RANGES. AS SUCH...FOR NOW MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU 04/16Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT
AGL...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU 05/05Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
AFT 05/05Z. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PCT
RANGE. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM NEARLY OVERHEAD...
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BREEZINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA VALLEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.
&&
.CLIMATE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HOT EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING OR TYING RECORD HIGHS. NOT ALL
LOCATIONS IN SE AZ WILL GET INTO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT. BELOW ARE THE
SITES THAT WILL BE AT OR WITHIN THREE DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DATE AUG 04 AUG 05
FCST RCD/YEAR FCST RCD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 107 109/1994 108 108/2009
FORT THOMAS 105 107/1995 106 109/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION 104 106/2009 105 108/1995
WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 107 AT TUCSON AIRPORT TODAY...THIS WILL MARK
THE 7TH TIME SINCE 1895 THAT AUGUST HIT 105 OR HOTTER WHEN IT DIDN`T
OCCUR IN JULY. THE PREVIOUS SIX OCCURRENCES WERE IN
1914/1919/1945/1962/1975 AND 1977.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
CLIMATE...GLUECK
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
240 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRIER
WEST FLOW RETURNS FOR MID WEEK, THEN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FOR THIS WEEKEND,
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
THE BLM REPORTED THAT THE DODGE FIRE IN A REMOTE AREA OF NORTHEAST
LASSEN COUNTY HAD BURNED 3,500 ACRES AS OF NOON TODAY. ZEPHYR WIND
GUSTS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH SHOULD INCREASE SMOKE OUTPUT FROM THE DODGE FIRE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THIS FIRE
MAY REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WEST WINDS PREVAIL. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, SMOKE MAY SPREAD ACROSS GERLACH AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS LOVELOCK AND PYRAMID LAKE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEATHER IMPULSE WHICH WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, TRENDS AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE AND
VIRGA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH TO
MONO COUNTY.
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH EXPECTED. A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED, QUICK
MOVING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE THREAT
FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER JET CROSSING THE SIERRA OVER THE
TAHOE BASIN THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH
ACROSS PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
AND ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER, SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TIMING AND TRACK MAY CHANGE THE LOCATION, INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF THE STORM THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT (SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST). JCM
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE A POTENT UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE DATA MAY AFFECT THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO FAST CELL MOTION AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE MAIN PRECIP CORES. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY AS STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH WIDESPREAD OUTDOOR
EVENTS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY, PARTICIPANTS
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD AND ENSURE A QUICK ACCESS TO
SAFE SHELTER BEFORE DANGEROUS STORMS ARRIVE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON CELLS IN FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER, BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. SCATTERED CIRRUS AND SOME FLAT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 90
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY, AND SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO EMERGENCE AND SPREAD OF
ANY HOLDOVER LIGHTNING FIRES RESULTING FROM FRIDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
EVENT. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THRU WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO, AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE
DODGE FIRE MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND PRODUCE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM GERLACH NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER. ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD SPREAD SOUTH TO NEAR PYRAMID LAKE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, TYPICAL W-NW ZEPHYR TYPE BREEZES EXPECTED AT
AREA TERMINALS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z-04Z.
MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SACRAMENTO CA
1015 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY AUGUST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORCAL TODAY. LATEST HRRR & NAM
MODELS SHOW FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE REFLECTIVITY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ)...PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE. HAVE MADE A SLIGHT
MODIFICATION TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY AND CHANGE IT TO SPRINKLES, BUT
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MUCH OF THE VALLEY IN THE 80S.
THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING SHORT-WAVE RIDGING TO BRING WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THIS LOW IS
BETTER ORGANIZED THAN TODAY`S SHORT-WAVE SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE VALLEY. JBB
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, MUCH OF
THIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WITH FLAT RIDGING
DEVELOPING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL.
RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH DRIER, MORE STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE
COAST, BUT THE BULK OF IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. WHERE
THIS LOW ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF SPLITS OF PART OF THE TROUGH AND SENDS IT SOUTHWARD AS A
LOW SITTING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE THE GFS
GRADUALLY BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW, WITH EITHER POSSIBILITY LIKELY
DELAYING PRECIPITATION INTO MID WEEK. EK
&&
.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WITH VFR THIS MORNING. SW WINDS IN THE DELTA HAVE
DECREASED, BUT WILL STREGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. SOME SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRES MAY
LIMIT VISIBILITY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. EK/JBB
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1119 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU
THIS EVENING...AND WL CONTINUE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING
THIS TIME OVR NRN AND ERN CO. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. OVR THE FORECAST
AREA...MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE ERN
MTNS AFTER ABOUT 01Z.
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOMING SVR OR MARGINALLY SVR THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING OVR THE ERN PLAINS. BY MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE ENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER.
AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE DRIER AIR OVR THE AREA ON TUE...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH
MSTR AROUND FOR SOME ISOLD MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
...MONSOON RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE H5 CENTER SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH WY WED NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK SOME ISOLD TO CT
STORMS OVER THE MTS LATE WED...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...AND
THE WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING THE UPPER 90S BACK TO MOST OF SE
CO...ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN
MORE HOT AND DRY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE
HOT SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EWD
INTO TX...AND SW FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CO. THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO WRN CO AS A TROUGH MOVES ASHORE
OVER NRN CA...AND THEN TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE MTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH STRENGTHENS MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW CO. THE
ERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT STILL
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST...BRINGING OUR AREA BACK TO A DRY AND HOT SUMMER PATTERN.
BUT HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR IS DEBATABLE. THE GFS RETURNS US TO THIS
DRY AND HOT PATTERN AS SOON AS SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
TIL LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES MAKE IT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
A TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACNW...AND A RIDGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
DETERMINE DAILY POPS AND TEMPS. SO...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.
DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH I CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA TOMOROW AFTERNOON AT ANY OF THE 3 TAF
SITES...THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
725 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 725 PM EDT...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED
DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTH CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE TROUGH
AXIS CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME BRIEF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN
AREA. A FEW ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT AND SOUTHERN/WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL REMOVE ANY
MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING DUE TO
STABILIZATION OCCURRING.
THE 3KM HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE TUG HILL
AND ST LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL WORK TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...BUT WILL START TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...AND THE BEST FORCING SHIFTING NORTH
AND EAST OF THE REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW POPS TO DROP OFF
BY MIDNIGHT FOR THE WHOLE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVER MOST OF
THE AREA FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
FOR A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK COMFORTABLE AND
COOL...WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY START TO RISE
AT 500 HPA...ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON THE COOLER SIDE.
A WEAK WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THIS TIME. SKY COVER GENERALLY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME COOLER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESP
OVER THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE
EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A COASTAL
STORM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT THEN BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
LOOKS TO START ON AN EXCELLENT NOTE...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL STORM WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THIS COASTAL STORM...WHICH LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS...IS THAT IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST OFF
THE COAST TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES HINT AT A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD BRING THE WESTERN EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MAYBE FAR EASTERN NEW
YORK.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL TAKE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION AS IT TAKES A MILLER TYPE A
TRACK/SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATED SYSTEM/EAST OF CAPE COD.
AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY
NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS MOST OF MONDAY...WILL BE DRY
BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS FOR THE WORSE MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND DEVELOPS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...WITH THE 12Z GFS HAVING A DRY SCENARIO. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD ENDING 00Z FRIDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR A
NARROW TIME WINDOW BETWEEN AROUND 08Z-12Z WHEN SOME OCCASIONAL
MVFR VSBY WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF WITH BR. THICKER FOG
FORMATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS
BEING TOO DRY TO SUPPORT FOG. ALSO THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO PREVENT FOG.
FAIR WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THURSDAY...WITH JUST FEW-SCT MID
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT AFTER
DARK...BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS DRY OVERNIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND
DEW FORMATION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 TO
10 MPH ON THURSDAY...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
JUST A STRAY LOCALIZED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. JUST A STRAY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
COMPLETELY DRY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAUNTON MA
648 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INTO THIS EVENING...
STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THRU THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING DECENT
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NOT
THINKING AS MUCH UMPF AS EARLIER STORMS...ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER TO SOME DEGREE AND WEAKER/STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW NOT INVOKING MORE VIGOROUS FORCING AS
THE WAVE EARLIER TODAY. STILL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WITH MUCAPES/INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. WHILE A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EVIDENT...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STORM HERE OR THERE
KICKING OFF BUT REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.
THINK THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...FOCUS ALONG THE MA/RI/CT BORDER
WHERE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS BEING STRETCHED AND ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY
OF DRIER AIR DISCERNED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS LIKELY POPS
FOR THOSE LOCALES...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR S/CENTRAL CT
AND RI AS WELL AS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WELCOMING AS
THEY TOOK THE BRUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING.
TONIGHT...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...
MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...
* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD
OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...
NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.
DETAILS...
THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.
HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.
KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.
KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.
SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.
SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.
WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.
OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1103 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PNS IS FORTHCOMING WRT SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF 11AM. STILL EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...THOUGH POP UP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. NCAR ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT BEST WITH FOCUS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE KEPT POPS
AT ISOLATED ALL LOCATIONS AS HRRR POPS SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND...THE CANADIAN HAS SOME OVER NYC AND NCEP HIRES ARW HAS
SOME OVER LONG ISLAND.
BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS. HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE NY/NJ METRO.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. DRY...LESS HUMID AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.
BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE LATEST 00Z MODELS OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION...BUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE FLATEST AND SLOWEST AS IT DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP
THE LOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES
BEHIND THE MAIN ONE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY
AND DEVELOPS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND MOVES IT
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
GEFS ARE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE MEAN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z ECMWF.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER...EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF POPS.
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.
VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF
NYC THROUGH SUNSET.
SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE SW WINDS ARND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FM 1 PM UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL TERMINALS INCLUDING
KJFK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFT SUNSET THEN SHIFT FROM THE W ARND 10
KT ON WED.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON SATURDAY
ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DO
DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/JMC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
745 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY...THOUGH POP UP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. NCAR ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH FOCUS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE
KEPT POPS AT ISOLATED ALL LOCATIONS AS HRRR POPS SOME CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...THE CANADIAN HAS SOME OVER NYC AND NCEP
HIRES ARW HAS SOME OVER LONG ISLAND.
BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS. HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE NY/NJ METRO.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. DRY...LESS HUMID AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.
BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
THE LATEST 00Z MODELS OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION...BUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THE 00Z GFS IS THE FLATEST AND SLOWEST AS IT DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP
THE LOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES
BEHIND THE MAIN ONE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY
AND DEVELOPS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND MOVES IT
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
GEFS ARE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE MEAN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z ECMWF.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER...EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF POPS.
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KT INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20 KT RANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 10 KT OR LESS. TERMINALS OUTSIDE
OF NYC...MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF
GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF
GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON SATURDAY
ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DO
DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWO RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE FIRST
FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT IS BEING MAINTAINED BY
BOTH THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CAPE AND DYNAMICS IN THE
FORM OF A PRONOUNCED JET STREAK.
INSTABILITY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. COMPARING LATEST KEWR ACARS
SOUNDING WITH RAP SUPPORTS LI`S ON -2 C AND THE 60KT JET ENTRANCE
WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATES CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AREAS TO THE EAST (CT AND LONG ISLAND) BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE. FOR EXAMPLE...KISP HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND -6 C
ON THE LI`S.
THUS AM FCSTING THE LINE THAT`S FORMING ALONG THE DELAWARE TO
CONTINUE AND GROW. HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
TSTM DESCRIPTORS.
WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY SEVERE AND QUICK SPIN UPS.
HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
IS EAST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND BY 930 AM.
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS
OCCURS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ARE WATCHING AREAS OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NYC METRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPOS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDER REACHING THOSE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
TIMING.
EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
201 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT APPEARS TO ME LIKE WE HAVE TWO FRONTS...BOTH RATHER DIFFUSE.
THE FIRST FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY REACH THE NY METRO BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY THERE. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE INITIAL CLUSTER AND WILL THE INITIAL CLUSTER SURVIVE
INTO CT?
RAP AND HRRR DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEVELOPING PCPN.
NARRE-TL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER COMPOSITE OF THE TREND THAT
SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES AND INCREASES AS IT MOVES INTO CT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING RUSH. KEEPING THE SCT COVERAGE FOR THIS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM LOCAL.
IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.
EXPECT ADDITIONAL REVISIONS AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVE EARLY THIS
MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS
OCCURS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
ARE WATCHING AREAS OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NYC METRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPOS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDER REACHING THOSE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
TIMING.
EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.
WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC/MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
600 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
TONIGHT, WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START OUT
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WORK TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON TONIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED WELL NORTH OF WHERE THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS INDICATED, SO THE FACT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR COUNTIES DOES NOT PRECLUDE THAT SHOWERS
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN TO MATTOON AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SPRINGFIELD TO SHELBYVILLE
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
WILL START OUT THE EVENING GRIDS WILL MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MAY ADJUST POPS UP AS LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS WARRANT. DESPITE THE DRY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TONIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP REDEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS EXPANDING NORTH TO AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CANTON TO LINCOLN TO MATTOON.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT
DEVELOPS UNDER LIGHT ENE FLOW. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE POINTED
TOWARD LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-74, WITH
UPPER 60S IN SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT LATER
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT WILL A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AS THE
ENERGY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST INTO INDIANA. THE
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND OF TRACKING
THE LOW ACROSS IL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
ALSO CONTINUE TO PROJECT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WILL RAMP
UP TO LIKELY, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-70 AS THE LOW
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF STATE HWY 50. HEAVY PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-70, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.8". WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY MAY HELP PREVENT FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO, A DRIER TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS HAS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN IL, WITH HEIGHT RISES
HELPING HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MORNING COULD DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN IL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI EVENING. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 FOR NOW.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY, THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IL SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING IT GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES,
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PUSH THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL IL. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SPI AND
DEC THRU ABOUT 13Z WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF
ANY IMPACT ON OPERATIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT AND TRENDING INTO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON WED
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
TONIGHT, WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START OUT
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WORK TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON TONIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED WELL NORTH OF WHERE THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS INDICATED, SO THE FACT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR COUNTIES DOES NOT PRECLUDE THAT SHOWERS
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN TO MATTOON AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SPRINGFIELD TO SHELBYVILLE
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
WILL START OUT THE EVENING GRIDS WILL MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MAY ADJUST POPS UP AS LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS WARRANT. DESPITE THE DRY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TONIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP REDEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS EXPANDING NORTH TO AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CANTON TO LINCOLN TO MATTOON.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT
DEVELOPS UNDER LIGHT ENE FLOW. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE POINTED
TOWARD LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-74, WITH
UPPER 60S IN SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT LATER
TONIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT WILL A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AS THE
ENERGY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST INTO INDIANA. THE
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND OF TRACKING
THE LOW ACROSS IL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
ALSO CONTINUE TO PROJECT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WILL RAMP
UP TO LIKELY, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-70 AS THE LOW
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF STATE HWY 50. HEAVY PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-70, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.8". WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY MAY HELP PREVENT FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO, A DRIER TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS HAS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN IL, WITH HEIGHT RISES
HELPING HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MORNING COULD DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN IL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI EVENING. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 FOR NOW.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY, THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IL SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING IT GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES,
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PUSH THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL IL. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SW AND REGION MAINLY DOMINATED BY CIRRUS
BLOW OFF FROM OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...SOME MID LEVEL IN SPI AND DEC CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLIGHTLY.
WAVE MOVING INTO THE WEST LIKELY TO IMPACT SPI IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR TS. MAY NEED AN UPDATE FOR DEC SHOULD THE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
ERODING THE STORMS WITH EASTERN PROGRESSION. MODELS VARYING ENOUGH
WITH FUTURE PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING THAT IT IS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF
ALTOGETHER.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
550 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
MODELS INITIALLY WELL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SREF WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND RAP ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE SREF AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ALONG THE WESTERN END OF
THE AREA WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THERE
ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK JET LIFT AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT.
INITIALLY THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOW
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASE A GREAT DEAL IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MODELS WOULD INDICATE
A STRONG CAP ALOFT BUT MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS
ACTIVITY. IF THE LIFT BREAKS THE CAP...THE INSTABILITY AND PWS ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY...THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME FOG AND ESPECIALLY STRATUS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT WOULD INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH
COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. THIS DOES
MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH.
SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER...SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...AND THE BOUNDARY TIMING. SO WENT COOLER IN THE EAST
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LASTS LONGER AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
THE COOLEST. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IT
DOES APPEAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING...THEY ARE
PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES BY 00Z/SAT AND STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20KTS...NEITHER PARAMETER REALLY SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME
LOCAL DELUGES...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER.
THE PATTERN DOESNT CHANGE MUCH ON SATURDAY WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WILD CARD WILL BE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION AND WILL BE HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY PROVE TO BE PIVOTAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SHARPLY
NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM CANADA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR THIS REASON AM
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE DERIVED BLENDS USED TO INITIATE THE EXTENDED THE PERIODS.
NONETHELESS...SURFACE PROGS SHOW A CONSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH RESULTANT INSTABILITY EACH DAY. SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR LIFT AND ANY MINOR DISTURBANCE WHICH
MAY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LOW UNDER THE
RIDGE SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TERMINAL FORECASTS
BUT MAY HAVE A STORM OR TWO NEAR MCK VICINITY LATER TONIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL AGAIN A CONCERN AND THINK MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE EAST
OF A TO TRIBUNE LINE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT MCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1030 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO ADDRESS MOVEMENT OF WEAKENED MCV/OPEN SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT LIFT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE IMPRESSED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MEAN LIFT AND ROTATION AROUND THE
CIRCULATION IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ADVERTISED BY THE 12KM NAM-WRF. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE ROTATES
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT, ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE TO LIFT AND CONDENSE MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO WEST KENTUCKY...WHILE MAINTAINING LIFT
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
WITH THAT SCENARIO IN PLACE...WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE AN
OPPORTUNITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DROP NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BEFORE 7 AM CDT...AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LAST MINOR IMPULSE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TAKES PLACE
ALONG AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS VARIATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
LIKELY PIVOT TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. NOTICING NEW
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF KSTL AS THE
PRIMARY CIRCULATION TAKES SHAPE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS MAY
BE THE BEGINNING OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOUT THE CIRCULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SO FIGURE THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE ENTIRE ARE AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT MAY BE MORE OF AN AREAL FLOOD EVENT...AND NOT SO MUCH OF A
FLASH FLOOD EVENT. PLAN ON CANCELING AT LEAST THE WESTERN 4
COUNTIES IN MISSOURI ONCE THE LINE HAS PASSED THERE IN AN HOUR OR
TWO.
FIGURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE DONE BEFORE 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE EAST...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON JUST TO GIVE IT A WIDE BERTH. STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UNLIKE MOST LATE SUMMER SITUATION...THE NORMALLY DOMINANT SOUTHEAST
U.S. RIDGE IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT THIS SUMMER. ALTHOUGH CPC SUGGESTS
CURRENT EL NINO REGIME IMPACT IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE U.S. ...WE
CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED INTO A MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE
MEAN CENTER OF THE BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAFFLING BETWEEN
TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MODEL INITIALIZATION...FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE...GIVES CREDENCE
TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
TIME PERIOD. FROM OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVES THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER ITS GFS COUNTERPART.
STARTING FROM A BLENDED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INITIALIZATION...UTILIZED
A VARIABLE WEIGHTING OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF...DEPENDING ON THE
WEATHER ELEMENT IN QUESTION.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS (ON SATURDAY) WITH THE MEAN
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE AREA...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ROTATING
NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST INTERACT WITHE
SEMIPERMANENT LOW WOBBLING ALONG ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES OF
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AS THESE LOWS ARE PHASED INTO THE MEAN WEST-
NORTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN LOW AND THE SOUTHER
U.S. RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED GENERATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS/WEATHER
(HIGHEST NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 64) DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 50/50 ON THE RANGE OF POPS/WEATHER...MAINLY DUE
THE UNCERTAINTY ON ANY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SAME
FLOW...WHICH CAN ENHANCE/DIMINISH POPS FROM ONE PERIOD TO ANOTHER.
THE RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR...ESPECIALLY IN
SHRA/TSRA...BY 05-06Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AOB 6 KNOTS WILL VEER AROUND TO
THE NORTHWEST WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ076>078-082-
083-086-087-089>094.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-
085-088.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ108>112-114.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
206 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 05/18Z WITH THE SMALL EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NEAR AND UNDER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ALSO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND 05/12-05/14Z OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS WHERE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS. /06/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF WARMING JUST A BIT.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F STILL
LOOK LIKELY. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EASTWARD
PROGRESS IS A COUPLE OF HRS FASTER THAN PROGGED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30.
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MADE PRIMARILY TO POPS GRIDS BUT THE
OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT SHOULD THIN IN TIME...WITH AREAS OF AC LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
CAN/T RULE OUT A WEAK STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z OVER SE
TX...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/SW AR AND EVEN
NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX AND THE DESERT SW. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS/AC SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E TX/NCNTRL LA. S WINDS 4-7KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER THE NORTH WITH A SHORT
WAVE PULSE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF KN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS THIS ENERGY WORKS EASTWARD OVER AR.
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE OVERDONE NAM WAS ACTUALLY A STARTING
POINT. THE HRRR FLARES IN A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD BIT OF REAL ESTATE. SPC HAS ALL BUT EAST TX
IN A GENERAL THREAT AND WPC DOES HAVE A BIT OF QPF NORTH. THERE IS
A LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT POPS SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE
SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS
LIKELY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP JUST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA GOING AS THE SCHOOL
YEAR BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HARD TO
COME BY WITH HIGH BASED CU NOT VERY GENEROUS. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7.3KFT. THE
CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME MIDDLE 90S ALONG
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF MAINLY AR. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND
THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100 78 100 79 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 99 77 98 76 / 10 10 20 20
DEQ 96 74 98 76 / 20 20 20 20
TXK 98 78 100 79 / 10 20 20 20
ELD 98 76 97 76 / 10 20 20 20
TYR 99 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 100 77 100 78 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 97 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
06
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF WARMING JUST A BIT.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F STILL
LOOK LIKELY. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EASTWARD
PROGRESS IS A COUPLE OF HRS FASTER THAN PROGGED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30.
ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MADE PRIMARILY TO POPS GRIDS BUT THE
OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT SHOULD THIN IN TIME...WITH AREAS OF AC LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
CAN/T RULE OUT A WEAK STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z OVER SE
TX...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/SW AR AND EVEN
NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX AND THE DESERT SW. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS/AC SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E TX/NCNTRL LA. S WINDS 4-7KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER THE NORTH WITH A SHORT
WAVE PULSE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF KN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS THIS ENERGY WORKS EASTWARD OVER AR.
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE OVERDONE NAM WAS ACTUALLY A STARTING
POINT. THE HRRR FLARES IN A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD BIT OF REAL ESTATE. SPC HAS ALL BUT EAST TX
IN A GENERAL THREAT AND WPC DOES HAVE A BIT OF QPF NORTH. THERE IS
A LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT POPS SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE
SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS
LIKELY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP JUST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA GOING AS THE SCHOOL
YEAR BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HARD TO
COME BY WITH HIGH BASED CU NOT VERY GENEROUS. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7.3KFT. THE
CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME MIDDLE 90S ALONG
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF MAINLY AR. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND
THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100 78 100 79 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 99 77 98 76 / 10 10 20 20
DEQ 96 74 98 76 / 20 20 20 20
TXK 98 78 100 79 / 10 20 20 20
ELD 98 76 97 76 / 10 20 20 20
TYR 99 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 100 77 100 78 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 97 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT SHOULD THIN IN TIME...WITH AREAS OF AC LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDMORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
CAN/T RULE OUT A WEAK STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z OVER SE
TX...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/SW AR AND EVEN
NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX AND THE DESERT SW. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS/AC SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E TX/NCNTRL LA. S WINDS 4-7KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER THE NORTH WITH A SHORT
WAVE PULSE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF KN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS THIS ENERGY WORKS EASTWARD OVER AR.
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE OVERDONE NAM WAS ACTUALLY A STARTING
POINT. THE HRRR FLARES IN A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD BIT OF REAL ESTATE. SPC HAS ALL BUT EAST TX
IN A GENERAL THREAT AND WPC DOES HAVE A BIT OF QPF NORTH. THERE IS
A LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT POPS SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE
SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS
LIKELY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP JUST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA GOING AS THE SCHOOL
YEAR BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HARD TO
COME BY WITH HIGH BASED CU NOT VERY GENEROUS. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7.3KFT. THE
CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME MIDDLE 90S ALONG
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF MAINLY AR. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND
THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD. /24/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100 78 100 79 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 99 77 98 76 / 10 10 20 20
DEQ 96 74 98 76 / 20 20 20 20
TXK 98 78 100 79 / 10 20 20 20
ELD 98 76 97 76 / 10 20 20 20
TYR 99 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 100 77 100 78 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 97 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.
OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER THE NORTH WITH A SHORT
WAVE PULSE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF KN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS THIS ENERGY WORKS EASTWARD OVER AR.
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE OVERDONE NAM WAS ACTUALLY A STARTING
POINT. THE HRRR FLARES IN A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD BIT OF REAL ESTATE. SPC HAS ALL BUT EAST TX
IN A GENERAL THREAT AND WPC DOES HAVE A BIT OF QPF NORTH. THERE IS
A LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT POPS SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE
SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS
LIKELY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP JUST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA GOING AS THE SCHOOL
YEAR BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HARD TO
COME BY WITH HIGH BASED CU NOT VERY GENEROUS. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7.3KFT. THE
CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME MIDDLE 90S ALONG
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF MAINLY AR. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND
THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100 78 100 79 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 99 77 98 76 / 10 10 20 20
DEQ 96 74 98 76 / 20 20 20 20
TXK 98 78 100 79 / 10 20 20 20
ELD 98 76 97 76 / 10 20 20 20
TYR 99 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 100 77 100 78 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 97 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
24/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAKE CHARLES LA
1128 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION IS LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR KARA AND AFTER 04/19Z FOR KLFT.
RUA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.
OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.
OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.
MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. 23
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 96 75 95 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 76 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 30
BPT 75 95 77 94 / 10 20 10 20
&&
.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
919 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WX THIS EVE ACRS FA W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF THE RGN.
WATCHING AREA OF CONVECTION SPREADING SLOLY ENE THROUGH SW VA/NW
NC. CURRENT FCST APRS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM...W/ POPS INCRS TO SLGT
CHC-CHC ACRS MNLY HALF OF THE FA OVRNGT. ADDED ISOLD TSTMS UNTIL
ABT 08-09Z. 23Z/05 RUC GENLY WEAKENS AREA OF CONVECTION AS IT
SPREAD TWD/INTO THE FA. HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC-CHC POPS LT.
OTRW...PARTLY CLOUDY N...INCRSG CLDNS S...W/ LO TEMPS FM THE
U60S/ARND 70F N TO THE M/U70S FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE AKQ CWA THURSDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E GRADIENT ACTUALLY SHARPENS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF
THE REGION. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LIKELIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO NE NC/SE VA...AS MODELS SUGGEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ERN NC AND SE VA. OVERALL THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM NE NC INTO SE VA WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER
(30-35KT) 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTERACTS WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NE...TO AROUND 90 SE.
LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES WILL SUPPORT QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70S.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE
SYSTEM PULLS OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE OF THE QUICKER NAM AND SLOWER ECMWF. LIKELY POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH PCPN COULD TAPER OFF FROM THE W DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW...TO THE LOW 80S
SE.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY W...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST WITH A 20-30% POP. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT NIGHT...PULLING CLOUDS AND PRECIP OUT TO SEA WITH IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
DYNAMIC FORCING ON MONDAY. INCREASING POPS MONDAY THROUGH WED AS
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POSSIBLE.
MODELS DEPICT AN OMEGA LIKE BLOCK FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS UPPER 80S MON AND TUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED MODERATING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 00Z...VFR CONDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH NO CONVECTION
AFFECTIING THE CWA. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT CONTS TO LIE JUST
SOUTH OF THE VA BORDER WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVG ALONG THE FRONT OVER
N CENTRAL NC. ANOTHER WAVE ON THE BNDRY IS MOVG THRU THE TN VALLEY
AND WILL BRING SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE AREA BY THU MORNING/AFTN.
INCREASING MID-UPR LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM INTO THE
AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. LWR CIGS AND VSBYS
LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES BY LATE THU INTO FRI. HI PRES WILL BUILD
INTO AND OVR THE AREA FOR SAT AFTN THRU SUN.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW THURS AOB 15 KT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THURS NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN NC.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW
PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT FRONTAL LOCATION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NE FLOW. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4 T0 6+ FT FRI NIGHT THOUGH SAT. LOW PROGGED
TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS/SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...TMG/JEF
MARINE...MAS/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
121 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CYC NW FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO DOMINATING THE UPR LKS. UPSTREAM 12Z
RAOBS AT INL/YPL SHOW SOME FAIRLY DEEP MSTR...WITH H85-7 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C. WITH LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW
AND H85 CAA /12Z H85 TEMPS WERE 11C AT GRB/APX BUT ONLY 3C AT
YPL/...BKN LO CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV NOTED ON WV IMAGERY PASSING OVER NE
LK SUP/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...BUT INTENSITY/
COVERAGE OF THESE HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SOME CAPPING AOA H7 AS SHOWN
ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB AND RUC ANALYSIS SNDGS FOR SITES IN THE CWA. THE
CAA AND CLD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPS BLO NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS AND POPS.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY ONGOING SHOWERS EARLY TO TEND TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV TO THE NE. SOME OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW SLIDING SEWD THRU MANITOBA WL
ARRIVE DURING THE NGT AND RESULT IN MORE ISOLD SHOWERS. LINGERING
CYC FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST...CYC NW H85 FLOW WL MAINTAIN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE UPR 40S AT MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS H85
TEMPS DIP TO ARND 6C.
TUE...ALTHOUGH MOIST CYC H85 FLOW WL PERSIST...MODELS SHOW ARRIVAL
OF DNVA/FAIRLY SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING SHRTWV DOMINATING...WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN. SO ANY MRNG SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME
DESPITE THE DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY ENHANCE PCPN CHCS.
EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH LINGERING LO CLDS AND H85
TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE THAT WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE SCENTRAL...WITH MAINLY 60S CLOSER TO LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATUES AND A FEW SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN A
SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSES UPPER MI
SHOULD END BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INCREASED DRYING AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE. THE SFC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS A SFC
RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN CWA. WHILE
PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING...INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE 40S
GIVEN THE OVERALL COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL
COLDEST SPOTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR WEST.
HAVE STEERED CLEAR OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW AS ANOTHER WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT YET
ANOTHER SUBLTE TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA
COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FROM THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A WEAK LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE...AND A LAKE MI/GREEN BAY LAKE BREEZE THAT
SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET WILL INDUCE MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MOST AGRESSIVE. IT APPEARS ANY
NORTHERN CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO TRACK WELL EAST ACROSS THE CWA
AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI
AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
OCCUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK. SIMPLY PUT...THE
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. IN FACT...THE 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A STACKED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA AT 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LAGGING BEGIND A SFC
TROUGH JUST EAST OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM CANNOT
CHOSE WHICH OF THE OTHER TWO TO FOLLOW...WITH IT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF THU INTO FRI...AND THE GFS SAT INTO SUN. MOST OF THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE ECWMF LEAVING BEHIND THE SW EXTENT OF THURSDAYS TROUGH
IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
STILL HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR MOST DAYS UNTIL THINGS WORK
THEMSELVES OUT IN THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THRU THE MORNING AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW
AROUND LOW PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FOR THE MOST PART AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...CIGS MAY DROP INTO
THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AROUND SUNRISE GIVEN CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM TO
THE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN IF CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. UNDER DEEPER DRYING
DURING THE AFTN...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT ALL TERMINALS.
WHILE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO THE
MORNING HRS...VFR VIS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
847 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE A SLOWER ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z. DRY AIR FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE RAIN AND
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE NMM/ARW DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFTER 09Z. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT TREND. REFLECTIVITY SHOWING UP ON
KDLH 88D ATTM ARE CLOUDS WITH A MINIMUM 12K FT BASE. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...AND A VORT MAX/H85 LOW
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING
THE NW CORNER OF MN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE VORT MAX THEN DIMINISHES/STALLS OVER NW MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING
WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER FAST APPROACHING WAVE IN THE
DAKOTAS. THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING WAVE...IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE...BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND PUSHES INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE POSITIONED IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES
THURSDAY WHILE DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MN. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN WHERE THE LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER..THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CONCERN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE 60S... SOLID WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A GENERAL LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE BULLS-
EYE OF THE QPF WILL BE. 12Z NAM12 HAS THE LOW TAKING A NOSE DIVE TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WITH A LINE OF PRECIP BREAKING APART
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... THE GFS40 STALLING BUT ALSO MARCHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND THE ECMWF STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERN
SOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
OVERALL DELAYED THE ONSET OF INITIAL FRIDAY PRECIP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. EXPECT ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
SECOND BOUNDARY... BUT QPF WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MORE COMFORTABLE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE CWA BY MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST... THOUGH EXPECT THE SUMMER WARMTH TO REMAIN... WITH
MID TO UPPER 70 HIGHS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTER A
SHORTWAVE BRINGS A SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH MONDAY... THE
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PCPN AND HAVE MADE THOSE
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST. STORMS SHOULD REACH INL FIRST AND
SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS...EXCEPT HYR WHICH
WILL NOT SEE STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR IS EXPECTED.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 54 72 61 71 / 0 30 60 50
INL 54 76 59 72 / 10 50 50 40
BRD 60 76 62 77 / 10 60 80 50
HYR 53 79 62 73 / 0 30 60 60
ASX 55 76 60 74 / 0 10 40 60
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...GSF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
907 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL SOMEWHAT QUIET BUT WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT THE
LINGERING STORMS THAT HAVE CLIPPED THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE AREA TO MOVE
OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WHILE THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN
DRY FOR THE MOST PART TONIGHT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES S/WV
SPARKING CONVECTION IN NW AR THAT COULD CLIP SOME OF THE NW AREAS
BEFORE 12Z. HI-RES ARW/NMM INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IT APPROACHES OUR NW WHILE HRRR INDICATES SOME
COULD SNEAK IN BUT MUCH WEAKER. DECIDED TO REMOVE POPS FOR NW UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WHEN BETTER LIFT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE QUICK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVING IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE MID/LOWER MS
VALLEY. 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS INDICATE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PWATS IN THE 1.6 TO 2 INCH RANGE...WHICH WILL AID IN ANOTHER DAY
OF GOOD RAIN/STORM CHANCES TOMORROW. OVERALL SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED LOWS
UPWARD OVERNIGHT DUE TO CURRENT TRENDS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS.
REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. /DC/
&&
.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE THURS AFTERNOON AFTER
15-16Z, WHICH MAY BRING BRIEF CATEGORY REDUCTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
/DC/26/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND THIS IS RESULTING IN INCREASED
HEAT STRESS AS WE GO INTO THURSDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE HIGH
ENOUGH TOMORROW TO WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THE
DELTA REGION.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY AS A STRONG
SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ALONG WITH PWATS AROUND 2.0
INCHES SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS
MAINLY EASTERN ZONES. SOME STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTH EXPECT THE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY THE EVENING HOURS.
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY WITH VERY WARM OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 70S. /15/27/
FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE LONG TERM
REMAINS THE NEAR RECORD HEAT BUILDING THROUGH THE WEEKEND COMBINED
WITH ENOUGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES.
FRIDAY A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BROAD HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE ALONG
WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OUR MOIST AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR CWA. A FEW
OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG AND CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER SHOULD HOLD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID
90S OVER OUR EAST BUT WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE EXPECTED OVER OUR WEST. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 106 AND 110 WITH HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE DELTA. SATURDAY THE
LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN SHIFTING EAST WHILE STRENGTHENING
OVER OUR CWA. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING STORMS WILL BE
HARD TO RULE OUT OVER OUR EASTERN ZONES BUT GENERALLY HOTTER AND
DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUR CWA. AFTERNOON HIGHS OVER MUCH
OF OUR WEST WILL BE AROUND 100F WITH UPPER 90S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH LOWER 70 DEW POINTS TO RESULT
IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 106 AND 110 AREAWIDE. THE TWO HOTTEST
DAYS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WHERE NEAR RECORD AFTERNOON HIGHS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. RECORD HIGHS RUN IN THE LOWER 100S AT MOST LOCATIONS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF REACHING AND EXCEEDING 100F
EACH DAY IS INCREASING ESPECIALLY OVER OUR DELTA REGION. BOTH THE
ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INTENSE LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE ARKLAMISS WITH H850 TEMPS IN THE 24-27 DEG C
RANGE. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE 104 TO
107 DEG MARK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE DELTA REGION. AS THE HEAT PEAKS
EACH AFTERNOON DRIER AIR MAY MIX DOWN AND HELP OFFSET THE HIGH
HUMIDITY BUT...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY EXCEED 105 SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA AND AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF HIGHER
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY CAN BE MAINTAINED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DROPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TUESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SUPPORT A SURFACE
LOW WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST BUT A WEAK ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LOOKS TO
SAG INTO OUR CWA TUESDAY. NEITHER MODEL DEPICTS MUCH QPF WITH THE
FRONT BUT SLIGHTLY LESS OPPRESSIVE HEAT IS EXPECTED TUESDAY. /22/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 76 96 76 99 / 11 23 23 21
MERIDIAN 73 93 74 97 / 11 34 33 31
VICKSBURG 76 98 76 99 / 10 16 17 9
HATTIESBURG 77 96 76 98 / 11 27 23 29
NATCHEZ 77 95 76 96 / 9 11 13 9
GREENVILLE 79 97 76 99 / 11 25 23 16
GREENWOOD 76 94 75 97 / 11 37 30 22
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ018-019-
025>027-034>036-040>042-047.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ007>009-015-
016-023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
DC/26/15/22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IN RECENT DAYS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL UNSEASONABLY LOW AT
KJAN WITH THE OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT 1.36 INCHES THIS
MORNING. KLIX CAME IN AT 1.61 INCHES...BUT THAT IS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS STILL LOOKING RATHER
HARSH FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...WITH A
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA AND INCREASING COASTAL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WILL BUY INTO THE HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATION OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE HWY 98 CORRIDOR AND INTRODUCE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS IN STORE. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.
ONE THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND...MOST RECENT
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING H850 TEMPS WILL EXCEED 26 DEG C AT SOME
POINT SAT/SUN. IF THESE VALUES VERIFY...WOULD EXPECT DRY BULB
TEMPERATURE READINGS TO EXCEED 105 DEG F IN A FEW LOCATIONS. /EC/
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE./15/17/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASE IN THE RH`S...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO 105 IN THE WEST. WITH THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS
OPPOSED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS CLIMBING
ABOVE 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND A WEAK SHORT...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 105 MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER...SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING./15/
LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE TWO
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. THURSDAY OUR CWA WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
OF A LARGE 594DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER OUR CWA DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE GREATEST POPS WL BE CARRIED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWEST POPS OVER
OUR WEST. WL HAVE A MOIST AIR MASS BACK OVER OUR CWA WITH PWATS
BETWEEN 1.75-2.0 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
EAST AS WELL AND TRY TO DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. THIS
WILL HELP PROLONG LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 FRIDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN THE WEST WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE IN
THE EAST. SATURDAY THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST
OVER OUR CWA WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE GULF COAST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGHS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED 100F AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 SATURDAY. EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /22/
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS BILLINGS MT
1014 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING IS CREATING A VERY FAVORABLE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN
FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.25 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
BILLINGS EAST WHERE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE INCREASING.
ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OUT FOR BIG HORN COUNTY WITH
A PERSISTENT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THERE. AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE
LATE EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION VALUES OF .2 TO .5 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH STRONGER
STORMS. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS TODAY ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE LIGHTNING.
ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WEST TO INCLUDE BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP.
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING WITH AN EARLY START
TO CONVECTION. NO CHANGE TO GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT IS
LOCATED IN THE MOST FAVORABLE POSITION FOR STRONG SLOW MOVING
STORMS...HOWEVER AS WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY IN BIG HORN COUNTY WE
CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FURTHER WEST INCLUDING THE
BILLINGS AREA TODAY. CHAMBERS
&&
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THE PATTERN HAS TURNED FROM HOT AND DRY TO COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN
PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...CENTRAL
ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS WYOMING...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH STRETCHED TO SOUTHERN CANADA...SO
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. AS FAR
AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...PWATS WERE ADVERTISED AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE EAST. THIS IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S
OVER THE EAST. STORMS WILL FORM THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
ZONES...SPREAD IN CENTRAL ZONES LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN FORM OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 30KTS...SO SEVERE NOT A HUGE
CONCERN...OTHER THAN MICROBURST WINDS WITH COLLAPSING CELLS. WEAK
SHEAR AND STEERING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING PULSING CELLS
THAT WILL HAVE HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES OVER THE EAST. THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN STORMS MAY EVEN BE AS FAR WEST AS BIG HORN AND
EASTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH. HRRR HAS
CELLS GOING UP OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN
COUNTY AROUND NOON AND THEN DEVELOPS UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
WITH EARLIER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE EAST WILL HAVE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S. THE STORMS ARE
PROJECTED TO EXIT THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY
BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS
DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO A TROPICAL LINK AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR...SO THERE WILL BE
JUICE FOR CONVECTION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER...AROUND 40KTS...AND CAPES RISE TO
AROUND 800J/KG. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS...WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
PWATS ADVERTISED AT AROUND AN INCH. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
EXITING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
IS PROGGED TO BE ANOTHER WET SYSTEM...BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AND TAPPING INTO MONSOONAL FLOW AS WELL. THE WAVE
HOWEVER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER VERY WELL...GENERALLY
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND ENERGY AS IT APPROACHES. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. THIS WAVE...IF IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER...WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. TIMING ALSO SHOULD LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN LOW 80S AT THIS POINT.
AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE A BIT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME DEGREE
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MAKE DIFFICULT FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
INTO THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY EAST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 059/084 058/085 056/083 057/085 058/083 059/089
6/T 34/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 077 053/080 050/081 049/083 051/081 052/080 052/086
6/T 35/T 52/T 11/B 13/T 44/T 32/T
HDN 084 056/087 057/087 054/085 055/088 057/085 057/091
7/T 43/T 52/T 11/B 12/T 22/T 21/U
MLS 089 059/088 061/086 058/084 057/086 060/083 059/090
7/T 82/T 54/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 31/B
4BQ 088 058/088 059/085 057/083 057/085 059/084 058/089
7/T 72/T 52/T 21/U 12/T 33/T 31/B
BHK 088 058/086 059/082 056/081 054/083 057/080 056/085
4/T 82/T 44/T 22/W 12/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 079 052/086 054/083 052/083 054/085 055/082 054/088
6/T 43/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
31>33-36-37-58.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BILLINGS MT
348 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...
THE PATTERN HAS TURNED FROM HOT AND DRY TO COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN
PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORING...CENTRAL
ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS WYOMING...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH STRETCHED TO SOUTHERN CANADA...SO
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. AS FAR
AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...PWATS WERE ADVERTISED AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE EAST. THIS IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S
OVER THE EAST. STORMS WILL FORM THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
ZONES...SPREAD IN CENTRAL ZONES LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN FORM OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 30KTS...SO SEVERE NOT A HUGE
CONCERN...OTHER THAN MICROBURST WINDS WITH COLLAPSING CELLS. WEAK
SHEAR AND STEERING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING PULSING CELLS
THAT WILL HAVE HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES OVER THE EAST. THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN STORMS MAY EVEN BE AS FAR WEST AS BIG HORN AND
EASTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH. HRRR HAS
CELLS GOING UP OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN
COUNTY AROUND NOON AND THEN DEVELOPS UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
WITH EARLIER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE EAST WILL HAVE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S. THE STORMS ARE
PROJECTED TO EXIT THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY
BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS
DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO A TROPICAL LINK AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR...SO THERE WILL BE
JUICE FOR CONVECTION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER...AROUND 40KTS...AND CAPES RISE TO
AROUND 800J/KG. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS...WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
PWATS ADVERTISED AT AROUND AN INCH. TWH
.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...
A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
EXITING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.
FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
IS PROGGED TO BE ANOTHER WET SYSTEM...BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AND TAPPING INTO MONSOONAL FLOW AS WELL. THE WAVE
HOWEVER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER VERY WELL...GENERALLY
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND ENERGY AS IT APPROACHES. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. THIS WAVE...IF IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER...WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. TIMING ALSO SHOULD LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN LOW 80S AT THIS POINT.
AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE A BIT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME DEGREE
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN. AAG
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION
TODAY...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS...AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE REGION TODAY. AAG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 059/084 058/085 056/083 057/085 058/083 059/089
6/T 34/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 082 053/080 050/081 049/083 051/081 052/080 052/086
6/T 35/T 52/T 11/B 13/T 44/T 32/T
HDN 084 056/087 057/087 054/085 055/088 057/085 057/091
7/T 43/T 52/T 11/B 12/T 22/T 21/U
MLS 090 059/088 061/086 058/084 057/086 060/083 059/090
7/T 82/T 54/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 31/B
4BQ 088 058/088 059/085 057/083 057/085 059/084 058/089
7/T 72/T 52/T 21/U 12/T 33/T 31/B
BHK 088 058/086 059/082 056/081 054/083 057/080 056/085
4/T 82/T 44/T 22/W 12/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 079 052/086 054/083 052/083 054/085 055/082 054/088
6/T 43/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/U
&&
.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
704 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND AS A RESULT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
CLEARING THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY CLEARING THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARING
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WOULD OTHERWISE KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE EC. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM. GIVEN ALL
THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA UNTIL 00Z. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COULD
BE REALIZED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SECOND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.
DESPITE FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...LAPSE RATES REALLY SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO MORE THAN ~500J/KG OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT PRODUCTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE HWO. LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
RESPECTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GUIDANCE RESPONDS
BY PROVIDING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES MORE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~40KTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GIVEN ALL THIS...FELT
IT PRUDENT TO AT LEAST GO WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE
HWO.
FINALLY...A CONTINUED WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS 06-14Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA AND AS A
RESULT...POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
AND/OR SEVERE CONVECTION CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO TRY AND PIN DOWN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(00Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. PATCHY MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING AS LIGHT WINDS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH ABUNDANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
AREA. CLOUDS INCREASE AFTER 12Z AS A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WITH UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
AT 20Z THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY UPPER LEVEL LOWS
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALONG WEST COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS ESTABLISHED IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
TRACKING BENEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PLAYER IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN CO...A STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEB INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SURFACE WINDS HAVE HAD AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...ADVECTING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY HAS MUDDLED THE
FORECAST PICTURE. HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING ADVERTISED A
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT TOWARD I-80. HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND COLD OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS HAMPERED THIS NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND IT HAS REMAINED STALLED NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW VEERING
WIND PROFILE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH THE HRRR MODEL RECENTLY PICKING UP ON
THIS IDEA AS WELL. STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...SO SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN PWATS AOA 1.5".
PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY KICKS EAST AND THE INSTABILITY
WANES WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST...WHICH KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN PLACE. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING SKIES PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TO THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LATEST NAM/EC GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED COOLER
FOR TOMORROW AND KEEPS MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...SO THIS TREND
WILL NEED TO MONITORED INTO TONIGHT. HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO MAKE
LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT NEEDS TO PLAY OUT IN THE NEAR TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WED NIGHT AND
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT THE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO END THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFLY OVER THE ROCKIES.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL AND BACK...THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...HOWEVER DO NOT
EXPECT A WASH OF A FORECAST. AS THE WAVES MOVE ACROSS A CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON NOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL IS THE BEST WAY TO EXPLAIN. IF
SHOWERS ARE OCCURING DURING THE PEAK HEAT...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...OTHERWISE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCALLY COMMON COOL SPOTS TO
SEE A FEW LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOCUS ON TSRA
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AS OF 1730Z THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE
VISBYS TO LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KLBF
TERMINAL...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. FURTHER NORTH...LESS WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE KVTN TAF TO
HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING....GENERALLY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VISBYS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
IFR CIGS/VISBYS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF AT KLBF.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
352 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HUDSON BAY
WITH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. VERY PRONOUNCED
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS SEEN
IN IR... MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
MAIN PLAYER TODAY WILL BE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WYOMING AND
COLORADO. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST NORTHEAST TODAY CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
PWATS ABOVE AN INCH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ABOUT 125%
OF NORMAL. AS LOW MOVES CLOSER AND HEATING OF THE DAY. FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF OGRANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND
NEGATIVE TILT OF SYSTEM WILL BRING PROLONGED SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S. ONGOING PRICIPITATION OVER THE EAST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S WEST AND LOWER
60S EAST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AT THE
SURFACE...WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A FEW TSTMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE THE FRONT FROM ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
EWING TO BURWELL TO BROKEN BOW BY AROUND 4PM OR PEAK HEATING. VERY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC BASED CAPE NEAR 4500 J/KG
AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP SEVERE
WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE. IT DOES APPEAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FORCING INCREASES.
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...OVERALL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND NIGHTIME TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE SATELLITE AND THE RAP SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCNTL COLO
COULD BEGIN AFFECTING SWRN NEB TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CUSTER COUNTY. THE
SREF INDICATES MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 09Z ACROSS NCNTL
NEB AND THE CNTL SANDHILLS...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY 12Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTH LEAVING
TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL AN UNCERTAINTY. SHEAR IS MARGINAL HOWEVER INSTABILITY
/CAPE/ IS GOOD. THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH STORMS A FEW HAVE BECOME
STRONG AND EVEN SOME SEVERE STORMS HAVE MATERIALIZED WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY HAS BEEN TEMPS...WHICH
ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
STORMS BUT UNSURE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT AGREE WITH THE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR NOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TOMORROW THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...HOWEVER WHEN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THOUGH WARM AIR CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA...
PERSISTENT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE.
SOUTH FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AGAIN. THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE DRY LINE (INDICATED IN THE
THETA-E GRADIENT)SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS. THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1000J/KG WITH 35-45KT DEEP
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE UPDRAFTS AND THE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY THAT
THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND THE SHEAR BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE SATELLITE AND THE RAP SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCNTL COLO
COULD BEGIN AFFECTING SWRN NEB TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING.
MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CUSTER COUNTY. THE
SREF INDICATES MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 09Z ACROSS NCNTL
NEB AND THE CNTL SANDHILLS...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY 12Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
747 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER ELKO COUNTY. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL INCREASE
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...UPDATED ALL GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, TO ALIGN WITH
12Z NAM/HRRR/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY
ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON/NEAR THE RUBY, INDEPENDENCE, AND JARBIDGE MTNS, BUT EXPANDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA. BAT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 308 AM /
SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND THIS WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...AND A BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PWS ARE BEGINNING TO
DRY UP...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE HRRR PLACES THE BULK OF THE QPF OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WHITE PINE...AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE NAM. AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BUILD...AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET
NUDGED UPWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...A SLICE OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CA ...ERODING THE HEIGHTS OVER THE LKN CWA...AND
USHERING IN THE NEXT WAVE OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A BRIEF
DRY SPELL. HOWEVER A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND TO INTRODUCE SOME
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4
CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER GREAT BASIN
WEATHER. THE GFS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER...ADVANCING LEADING
EDGE MOISTURE QUICKER...HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING OUT
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH NEVADA...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST NEVADA SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND GUSTS ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH...PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE WINDS INCREASE
AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP BEFORE ANY MOISTURE HITS THE GROUND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE LOW
SKIPS THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. STABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR RATHER RAPIDLY SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBUILD...CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY SPELL.
AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER...REMNANTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. AND THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIALOG HAS BEGUN
ABOUT THE EVOLVING SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...WHEN THERE APPEARS TO BE
A GLIMMER OF A RED FLAG EVENT. DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH THIS
PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NCEP RMOP IS NOT IN CONFIDENT TERRITORY THE NEXT
96 HRS...SO THE MODELING ISSUES ARE VERY PRESENT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
308 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND THIS WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...AND A BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PWS ARE BEGINNING TO
DRY UP...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE HRRR PLACES THE BULK OF THE QPF OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WHITE PINE...AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE NAM. AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BUILD...AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET
NUDGED UPWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...A SLICE OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CA ...ERODING THE HEIGHTS OVER THE LKN CWA...AND
USHERING IN THE NEXT WAVE OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A BRIEF
DRY SPELL. HOWEVER A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND TO INTRODUCE SOME
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4
CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER GREAT BASIN
WEATHER. THE GFS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER...ADVANCING LEADING
EDGE MOISTURE QUICKER...HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING OUT
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS JUNCTURE.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH NEVADA...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST NEVADA SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND GUSTS ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH...PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE WINDS INCREASE
AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP BEFORE ANY MOISTURE HITS THE GROUND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE LOW
SKIPS THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. STABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR RATHER RAPIDLY SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBUILD...CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY SPELL.
&&
.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...REMNANTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. AND THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIALOG HAS BEGUN
ABOUT THE EVOLVING SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...WHEN THERE APPEARS TO BE
A GLIMMER OF A RED FLAG EVENT. DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH THIS
PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NCEP RMOP IS NOT IN CONFIDENT TERRITORY THE NEXT
96 HRS...SO THE MODELING ISSUES ARE VERY PRESENT.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/92/92/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS TRACK THE CLUSTER OF TS OVER NE NM GRADUALLY SEWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 10Z OR SO. WATCH FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO IMPACT KTCC AND POSSIBLY KLVS OUT OF THE N OR NE UNTIL 9 OR
10Z. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT A TROUGH PASSING N OF NM SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY
ENOUGH FOR ISOLD AFTN -TS/-SHRA OVER THE MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE N
MTS. SOME OF THESE MAY TRACK SEWD OVER KSAF AND KLVS IN THE
AFTN...THEN FARTHER SE ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. AN
FAA ADAS PROBLEM HAS RESULTED IN A LONG DURATION METAR OUTAGE AT
KLVS...SO NO AMENDMENTS THERE.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...1001 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED POP/WEATHER AND SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BE
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN CONVECTION TRENDS
EAST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. WATCHING A PACIFIC PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH SOME BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AZ. IR SATELLITE
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA AND SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECIDED TO PUT IN A
CHICKEN 10 POP FOR THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES THERE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ACTION WOULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND OVER THE
AREA. THE 0Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE STARTING
AROUND 10000 FEET MSL. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. RELOOKED AT TEMPS BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP. THUS CURRENT MIN T
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY SOLID. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING SOME OF THE
HIGH MTN BASINS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. DEWPOINTS WOULD
NEED TO DROP A BIT MORE FOR THAT. PERHAPS TUE NIGHT.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500 MB MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BUILDING CUMULUS TO SURVIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. BOTH NAM
AND GFS KEEP THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR TAKES OVER. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
UPPER HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO TWO MORE THAN TUESDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH GETS FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BY A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK TO THE SW MTNS. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
APPEARS TO RESULT IN A FULL FLEDGED SLY MONSOON PLUME AND ABOVE
AVG PWATS. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR SUNDAY. GFS ELONGATES THE UPPER
HIGH WWD...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND AMPLIFIES
AND SHIFTS THE HIGHER FARTHER EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OK/TX...RESULTING IN A VERY CLASSIC LOOKING DEEP MONSOON PLUME
SMACK DAB OVER NM. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DOMINATING NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR EXTENDED FROM TRINIDAD CO TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SILVER CITY.
WEST OF THIS LINE...SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED STORM INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEEPER MIXING HAS
ALLOWED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20MPH TO SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THE DIVIDE REGION. DEW POINTS ALREADY TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS
10 TO 12 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE COMING DAYS PARTICULARLY BEFORE
AND JUST AFTER PEAK MIXING PERIODS. AS WE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
DRYING EPISODE...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RAPIDLY LOWER FOR 1-3 HOURS
AROUND PEAK MIXING BEFORE REBOUNDING NEARLY AS RAPIDLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. EITHER WAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ANOTHER 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER TODAY AND A BIT FURTHER STILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE GRIDDED DEW POINT FORECASTS.
WIDENING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THURSDAY OWING TO THE
DRIER AIR MASS. COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS...AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPPER HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
INITIALLY WC/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN MORE OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS NARROW WITH
LESS HEAT TO END THE WEEK.
MODERATE HAINES VALUES TO EXPAND AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AND PREDOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 6 WILL DEVELOP OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. VERY GOOD OR BETTER
VENTILATION FOR TUESDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS TRANSPORT WINDS WEAKEN THOUGH STILL
GOOD OR BETTER FOR MAJORITY OF LOCALES. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
1001 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED POP/WEATHER AND SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BE
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN CONVECTION TRENDS
EAST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. WATCHING A PACIFIC PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH SOME BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AZ. IR SATELLITE
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA AND SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECIDED TO PUT IN A
CHICKEN 10 POP FOR THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES THERE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ACTION WOULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND OVER THE
AREA. THE 0Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE STARTING
AROUND 10000 FEET MSL. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. RELOOKED AT TEMPS BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP. THUS CURRENT MIN T
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY SOLID. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING SOME OF THE
HIGH MTN BASINS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. DEWPOINTS WOULD
NEED TO DROP A BIT MORE FOR THAT. PERHAPS TUE NIGHT.
50
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...602 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ISOLD AND FAVOR N CENTRAL...NE AND E CENTRAL NM. AN EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SSE AND EVENTUALLY EXIT INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT A TROUGH PASSING N OF NM COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE MTS. SOME OF THESE
MAY TRACK SEWD OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500 MB MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BUILDING CUMULUS TO SURVIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. BOTH NAM
AND GFS KEEP THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR TAKES OVER. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
UPPER HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO TWO MORE THAN TUESDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH GETS FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BY A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK TO THE SW MTNS. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
APPEARS TO RESULT IN A FULL FLEDGED SLY MONSOON PLUME AND ABOVE
AVG PWATS. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR SUNDAY. GFS ELONGATES THE UPPER
HIGH WWD...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND AMPLIFIES
AND SHIFTS THE HIGHER FARTHER EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OK/TX...RESULTING IN A VERY CLASSIC LOOKING DEEP MONSOON PLUME
SMACK DAB OVER NM. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.
33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DOMINATING NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR EXTENDED FROM TRINIDAD CO TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SILVER CITY.
WEST OF THIS LINE...SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED STORM INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEEPER MIXING HAS
ALLOWED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20MPH TO SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THE DIVIDE REGION. DEW POINTS ALREADY TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS
10 TO 12 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.
AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE COMING DAYS PARTICULARLY BEFORE
AND JUST AFTER PEAK MIXING PERIODS. AS WE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
DRYING EPISODE...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RAPIDLY LOWER FOR 1-3 HOURS
AROUND PEAK MIXING BEFORE REBOUNDING NEARLY AS RAPIDLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. EITHER WAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ANOTHER 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER TODAY AND A BIT FURTHER STILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE GRIDDED DEW POINT FORECASTS.
WIDENING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THURSDAY OWING TO THE
DRIER AIR MASS. COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS...AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.
UPPER HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
INITIALLY WC/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN MORE OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS NARROW WITH
LESS HEAT TO END THE WEEK.
MODERATE HAINES VALUES TO EXPAND AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AND PREDOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 6 WILL DEVELOP OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. VERY GOOD OR BETTER
VENTILATION FOR TUESDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS TRANSPORT WINDS WEAKEN THOUGH STILL
GOOD OR BETTER FOR MAJORITY OF LOCALES. KJ
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
50
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
215 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND COLD FRONT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE IT WILL TURN DRIER
AND COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...OUR REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH... AND A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE STEADIEST SHOWERS
FELL ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.
A MORE SUBTLE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A SUBTLE WAVE
CROSSES WITH THE FRONT. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT...BUT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF
STEADIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THIS SAID...WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...A LOBE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL -1SD TO -2SD 850MB AIR
WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY LEVELS OVER LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
500MB VORT MAX.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDWEEK...RESULTING
IN A COOL AND UNSETTLED START TO THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MOST UNSETTLED PART OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +8C TO +10C AND CYCLONIC
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE ERIE...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT EAST OF OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
LONGER FETCH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.
AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...HENCE THE LOWER
POPS ACROSS WESTERN NY. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A STRONG
VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL YIELD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
NONETHELESS...EVEN WHERE WE DON`T SEE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER. THE COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN
VORT MAX MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND DIURNAL HEATING DISRUPTS ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER WE MAY SEE A RESURGENCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND EASTERN NEW YORK WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES FEATURING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKESHORES
WHERE LOWS RUN CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. UNLIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OWING TO
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOMINALLY STRONGER SHEAR.
HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE A FEW AREAS OF LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDINESS LINGER
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE QUESTION MARK IS A
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT
DRIFTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION GOING
ON...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE U.S.
CANADIAN BORDER WILL LIKELY RE-AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO...THIS GENERAL TREND SUGGESTS THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALSO PUSHING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE SHOWERS... THESE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FROM PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD INTO OSWEGO
COUNTY...WHERE SOME IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ANY SUCH FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD THEN MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE COMBINATION OF
AN APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... ANY OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRIER
WEATHER/VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
OWING TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LAKE
INFLUENCES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A FALL LIKE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A SECOND COLD FRONT COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS AND LAKE-850
DELTA-TS OF AROUND 15C WHICH FIT THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LOW WATERSPOUTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN ADDED
INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE LAKES.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
729 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THEN STALL OUT OVER
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
STILL APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... AND
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE TO OUR NORTH HAS MOVED LITTLE IN RECENT HOURS... STILL
STRETCHING ACROSS SRN VA INTO SE KY (ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FURTHER WEST INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY HAS
PROPELLED THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SOUTHWARD THERE). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL TO THE NW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WRN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... AND THIS MORE DENSE AIR MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NRN NC... HOWEVER
IT`S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET. OUTSIDE OF
THE FAR NRN CWA... IT`S MORE LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE A WIND SHIFT BUT
RELATIVELY LITTLE DROP IN THICKNESSES OVER MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL MCV/S NOW OVER WRN KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD WRN VA/WRN NC TONIGHT... HOWEVER THESE MAY
UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION DUE TO THE STRENGTH/INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM SE NEB INTO NRN ARK AS IT SHIFTS
TO THE ESE... EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING NOW
OVER OUR REGION AND REDUCING OR ELIMINATING ANY TANGIBLE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE LATEST HI-RES NMM/ARW AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT EARLIER OUTPUT FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE AND NSSL WRF SHOWING
ISOLATED CELLS IN THE FAR SRN CWA INTO SC (AS IS OCCURRING) WITHIN
THE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE NEAR A LOW LEVEL THERMAL / MOISTURE
GRADIENT (NOTED IN SFC-925-850 MB RAP ANALYSES) THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND OVER THE FAR NRN CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE... WHERE
RECOVERING PW (EXPECTED TO INCH UP CLOSER TO 1.5" TONIGHT)... WEAK
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE... AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION... LASTING UNTIL THE 05Z-07Z
TIME FRAME... AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP
CONFIGURATION THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH NO MORE THAN A LOW-END CHANCE
POP ANYWHERE GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT AND FOCUS. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY LATER
TONIGHT... YIELDING A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS FROM AROUND
68 NORTH TO 74 SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A TREND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
HEADING ESE... LIKELY PRECEDED BY SEVERAL OUTFLOWS AND WEAKER WAVES
THAT WILL HELP FURTHER MOISTEN THE COLUMN... STARTING WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND EXPANDING GROUNDWARD HEADING INTO THU EVENING.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THU
AFTERNOON REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
VARIATIONS IN THE DETAILS PERSIST WITH THE NAM/SREF MEAN/ECMWF MUCH
FASTER (BY ROUGHLY 6 HRS) TO SPREAD PRECIP EASTWARD ACROSS NC THAN
THE GFS. GIVEN THE OVERALL STRENGTHENING OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER
THE REGION BY 18Z-00Z AND WIDESPREAD 30-40 M HEIGHT FALLS... TEND TO
FAVOR THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF HIGHER CONVECTION COVERAGE. WILL KEEP
THE TREND UP TOWARD CHANCE POPS ARRIVING IN THE NW FIRST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
POPS TOWARD LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD... KEEPING HIGH POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
POTENT SURFACE LOW TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW (BOTH MORE THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE IN
YOUR AVERAGE EARLY AUGUST TIME PERIOD)... AN EARLIER ONSET AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD SUPPRESS CAPE
VALUES A BIT... KEEPING INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT MOST ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS OF 87-95 (A TAD LOWER THAN GUIDANCE IN
THE NW GIVEN THE LIMITED HEATING AND CLOSER TO GUIDANCE IN THE SE).
LOWS 67-74. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS HAVE SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND
A SECONDARY `KICKER` WAVE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON FRIDAY LOOKING TO HAVE DECENT PRECIP CHANCES. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THE SURFACE FRONT IS
PUSHED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/EAST.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT
BEING PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH/EAST...AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL TYPE
ACTIVITY...MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND MAYBE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY DRIFT INTO THAT AREA.
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEREFORE
MOISTURE/PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. OUR NEXT
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 729 PM WEDNESDAY...
24-HOUR TAF PERIOD: THERE ARE CURRENTLY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING TOWARD KINT AND KGSO...AS WELL AS A SECOND AREA NEAR KFAY.
FOR NOW ALL STORMS ARE OUTSIDE THE VICINITY...HOWEVER THE TRIAD
TERMINALS WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST SHOWERS NEAR THE TERMINALS IF NOT
THUNDERSTORMS...DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...CIGS AND
VISBYS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT
AND VEERING FROM SW TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY
STALL OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THURSDAY AFT THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING WITH IT THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA (KFAY...KRDU...AND KRWI). -RAH
LOOKING AHEAD: THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE
REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. SHOWER/STORM
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT SUB-VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL SATURDAY
MORNING...WHEN A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH...AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MID
MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...RAH/HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
100 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEAR MYRTLE
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SETTLE INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NRN SC COAST POISED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST AND SRN OUTER BANKS. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
SHIELD OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW... AND SOME OF THESE
ELEMENTS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE CWA. THIS BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY... RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF I-95. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH NEARLY ALL COARSE AND HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC
SSEO... NSSL WRF... AND NCAR ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS FORMIDABLE LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPER MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MORE INLAND (NW OF A FAY-WILSON LINE)... HOWEVER FARTHER
NW OVER THE NW AND FAR NRN PIEDMONT... SHEARED VORTICITY SPREADING
ESE FROM NE/IA/MO CONVECTION INTO THE BROAD BASE OF THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO ERN KY/TN AND WRN VA/NC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... LIKELY INSTIGATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG EITHER AN OLD OUTFLOW AND/OR THE BAGGY
PIEDMONT TROUGH... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE BELOW-NORMAL-PW ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH/LIFETIME OF ANY
SUCH CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES BRING THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR NW CWA AROUND MID AFTERNOON... WITH A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY MID EVENING... IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROMPT GOOD HEATING PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SRN AND ERN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS (AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL CLOUD SHIELD)... AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S APPEAR
ATTAINABLE THERE... WITH LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE... COOLEST IN THE
EXTREME ESE CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM:
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KCHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD GENERALLY ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY (AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW) SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED FROM SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY
POINTS EASTWARD...IN AXIS OF FOCUSED 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE EAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW CENTER.
OTHERWISE...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS VA TONIGHT...TO NEAR THE NC BORDER BY WED
MORNING. WILL RETAIN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM FROM ACTIVITY THAT COULD EITHER DEVELOP IN-SITU INVOF
A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO INITIATE
UPSTREAM OVER THE NC/SW VA MOUNTAINS AND INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THOSE FORCING
MECHANISMS AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 C DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION INDEED DEVELOPS OVER OR
PROPAGATES INTO...CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW AT THIS
LATITUDE/OVER CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ONLY MODEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY...SO ANY SEVERE OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE OF MON GIVEN A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES - UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT FROM KCTZ AND KGSB AND POINTS
EASTWARD...TO 90-98 DEGREES ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM AFP TO FAY.
LOWS GENERALLY 70 TO 75...AFTER ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR MOVES
EAST AND/OR DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SERVE
AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT -INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT 850 MB- AND VEERED SURFACE FLOW INTO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT COVERAGE. ANY SCATTERED OR
WIDELY SO STORMS THAT DO FORM...HOWEVER...WOULD AGAIN POSE A RISK OF
STRONG EVAPORATIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. WEAK CAA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED...VERSUS MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO THE NEAR THE SC BORDER BY
MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NC-SC BORDER THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MEANDER BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING THE SYSTEM THAT RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE WEEK.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A DEEPER
DISTURBANCE AND AND NOTICEABLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OUR
REGION LATE FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE BEST CHANCE POPS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTENCIES IN
THE ECMWF AND NAM...THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE MAY ULTIMATELY END UP
TO OUR NORTH WITH THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL RESIDE TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DISTURBANCE DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF
(ALBEIT IMPACTING THE AREA AT A POOR TIME DIURNALLY) AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT ISN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LEAVING MOST OF THE CWA DRY
AS THE FOCUS MOVES TOWARD THE COASTAL AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS A BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY....REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK
BENEATH RENEWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...
OF MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN TO AVIATION INTERESTS ARE THE BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC... AN OUTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST OFF THE NRN SC COAST NEAR MYR. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS TO THE NE JUST OFF THE SRN NC COAST AND SRN OUTER BANKS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING... WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CELLS
NEAR RWI/FAY AND PERHAPS NEARING RDU AS WELL. BRIEF MVFR TO HIGH-END
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY IMPACT INT/GSO LATE AFTERNOON... PERHAPS
REACHING RDU BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY MID EVENING AS
THEY PROGRESS TO THE EAST. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BUT MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT RWI/FAY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT... LIFTING/DISSIPATING BY
14Z WED MORNING.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... MUCH OF WED SHOULD BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... THEN THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ANY TIME... ESPECIALLY LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS... WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR STRATUS AND FOG BETWEEN BOUTS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1039 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE COAST EAST OF
GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION OVER LAND
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE. DID NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT DID TRIM/TWEAK POP GRADIENT AND VALUES
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF POP/QPF ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN POP/QPF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND NC.
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC THIS AM AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT CHANCES ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK SURFACE
DIVERGENCE MAKE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
UNLIKELY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IF THE LOW
DEPARTS QUICKLY AND HEATING RESULTS IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THERE IS HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUM WHICH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY OVER
THE AREA.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 AM FOLLOWS:
ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...REACHING
THE ILM SC CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM NC CWA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER SUPPORT THAT
WILL AID IN DRAWING IN THE RICH MOISTURE...PWS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST KLTX VWP IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO REMAIN JUST OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT PASSES BY THE ILM CWA.
POPS WILL BE ORIENTED LOWEST INLAND...ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE
GROUNDS HAVE BEEN ABSORBING THE RECENT RAINS LIKE A SPONGE OF
LATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. EVENTHOUGH FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED SOME...ITS JUST NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT
QPF FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AT ONE HALF TO 1 INCH. WITH
PWS PROGGED AT 2+ INCH AMOUNTS...THE FA STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE STRONGER AND MORE EFFICIENT
CONVECTION. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING
OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS THOSE NORMALLY PRONE AND VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90S WELL INLAND...AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE AROUND 70
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CREATING
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND
COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EVEN COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS
PINNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM TUESDAY
WILL PREVENT ANYTHING BEYOND JUST A FEW STORMS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM...MID AND UPR 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 ON
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S AT THE COAST
AND MID 90S INLAND...BUT LIKE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO THANKS TO GREATER
INSTABILITY ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT ONLY
LOW-CHC POP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE LED BY A POTENT
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE. FOLLOWING WPC PROGS AS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL
THROUGH THE WKND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST
WKND. HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AND
THUS THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...SO WILL OPTIMISTICALLY SHOW AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...AFTER
SEASONABLE BUT WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW IS RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
THIS HAS PUSHED SEAS CLOSE TO 8 FT IN SOME AREAS AND THE SCA
CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES. SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING PINCHED
GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...RIGHT WHERE BUOYS ARE REPORTING
THE HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD SLIDE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 AM FOLLOWS:
HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW
MOVING N BY NE...MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SC AND NC COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG
DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS. GUSTS
OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY MIXING FROM ALOFT
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS AND THE KLTX VWP
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SFC. THE LOW WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT... LEAVING A SW-WSW
10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT..WITH THE 7 FOOTERS
RESERVED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE 1 TO 3 FOOT UNDERLYING
SE GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. OVERALL...DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 7 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES
DOMINATING THE SEAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS PERIOD CREATING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SHARPENING
PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL HELP WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RISE UP TOWARDS 20 KTS BRIEFLY WED AND THU EVE...BEFORE FALLING
BACK AGAIN EACH NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER
OF SEAS...WITH A 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS...UP TO 5
FT AT TIMES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
RIDGED ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW LATE. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY THE WINDS...WITH 3-4
FT SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY AS THE SPEEDS
EASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
955 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEAR MYRTLE
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SETTLE INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NRN SC COAST POISED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST AND SRN OUTER BANKS. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
SHIELD OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW... AND SOME OF THESE
ELEMENTS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE CWA. THIS BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY... RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF I-95. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH NEARLY ALL COARSE AND HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC
SSEO... NSSL WRF... AND NCAR ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS FORMIDABLE LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPER MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MORE INLAND (NW OF A FAY-WILSON LINE)... HOWEVER FARTHER
NW OVER THE NW AND FAR NRN PIEDMONT... SHEARED VORTICITY SPREADING
ESE FROM NE/IA/MO CONVECTION INTO THE BROAD BASE OF THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO ERN KY/TN AND WRN VA/NC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... LIKELY INSTIGATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG EITHER AN OLD OUTFLOW AND/OR THE BAGGY
PIEDMONT TROUGH... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE BELOW-NORMAL-PW ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH/LIFETIME OF ANY
SUCH CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES BRING THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR NW CWA AROUND MID AFTERNOON... WITH A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY MID EVENING... IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROMPT GOOD HEATING PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SRN AND ERN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS (AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL CLOUD SHIELD)... AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S APPEAR
ATTAINABLE THERE... WITH LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE... COOLEST IN THE
EXTREME ESE CWA. -GIH
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM:
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KCHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD GENERALLY ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY (AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW) SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED FROM SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY
POINTS EASTWARD...IN AXIS OF FOCUSED 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE EAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW CENTER.
OTHERWISE...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS VA TONIGHT...TO NEAR THE NC BORDER BY WED
MORNING. WILL RETAIN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM FROM ACTIVITY THAT COULD EITHER DEVELOP IN-SITU INVOF
A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO INITIATE
UPSTREAM OVER THE NC/SW VA MOUNTAINS AND INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THOSE FORCING
MECHANISMS AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 C DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION INDEED DEVELOPS OVER OR
PROPAGATES INTO...CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW AT THIS
LATITUDE/OVER CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ONLY MODEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY...SO ANY SEVERE OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE ISOLATED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE OF MON GIVEN A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES - UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT FROM KCTZ AND KGSB AND POINTS
EASTWARD...TO 90-98 DEGREES ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM AFP TO FAY.
LOWS GENERALLY 70 TO 75...AFTER ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR MOVES
EAST AND/OR DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...
WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SERVE
AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT -INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT 850 MB- AND VEERED SURFACE FLOW INTO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT COVERAGE. ANY SCATTERED OR
WIDELY SO STORMS THAT DO FORM...HOWEVER...WOULD AGAIN POSE A RISK OF
STRONG EVAPORATIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. WEAK CAA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED...VERSUS MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO THE NEAR THE SC BORDER BY
MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...
THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NC-SC BORDER THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MEANDER BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING THE SYSTEM THAT RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE WEEK.
THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A DEEPER
DISTURBANCE AND AND NOTICEABLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OUR
REGION LATE FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE BEST CHANCE POPS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTENCIES IN
THE ECMWF AND NAM...THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE MAY ULTIMATELY END UP
TO OUR NORTH WITH THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL RESIDE TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DISTURBANCE DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF
(ALBEIT IMPACTING THE AREA AT A POOR TIME DIURNALLY) AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT ISN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LEAVING MOST OF THE CWA DRY
AS THE FOCUS MOVES TOWARD THE COASTAL AREA FOR THE WEEKEND
THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS A BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY....REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK
BENEATH RENEWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM TUESDAY...
MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NNE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL SC COAST THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR-MVFR RANGE CLOUDS AT RDU/FAY/RWI...WHICH
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BETWEEN 13-16Z. WHILE AN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PARTICULARLY FROM INT/GSO TO RDU...AN AXIS OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...INCLUDING
FAY AND VICINITY...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST.
ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM WED-WED NIGHT...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND RESULT IN A PEAK IN
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...NC
LATE THU-FRI.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
651 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...REACHING THE ILM SC CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM
NC CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
UPPER SUPPORT THAT WILL AID IN DRAWING IN THE RICH MOISTURE...PWS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST
KLTX VWP IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. AT THIS POINT...MODELS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO
REMAIN JUST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT PASSES BY THE
ILM CWA.
POPS WILL BE ORIENTED LOWEST INLAND...ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE
GROUNDS HAVE BEEN ABSORBING THE RECENT RAINS LIKE A SPONGE OF
LATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. EVENTHOUGH FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED SOME...ITS JUST NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT
QPF FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AT ONE HALF TO 1 INCH. WITH
PWS PROGGED AT 2+ INCH AMOUNTS...THE FA STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE STRONGER AND MORE EFFICIENT
CONVECTION. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING
OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS THOSE NORMALLY PRONE AND VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90S WELL INLAND...AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE AROUND 70
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CREATING
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND
COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EVEN COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS
PINNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM TUESDAY
WILL PREVENT ANYTHING BEYOND JUST A FEW STORMS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM...MID AND UPR 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 ON
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S AT THE COAST
AND MID 90S INLAND...BUT LIKE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO THANKS TO GREATER
INSTABILITY ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT ONLY
LOW-CHC POP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE LED BY A POTENT
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE. FOLLOWING WPC PROGS AS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL
THROUGH THE WKND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST
WKND. HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AND
THUS THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...SO WILL OPTIMISTICALLY SHOW AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...AFTER
SEASONABLE BUT WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE
TO A SFC LOW MOVING N BY NE...MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SC AND
NC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
SPEEDS. GUSTS OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY
MIXING FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS AND
THE KLTX VWP INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SFC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LEAVING A SW-WSW 10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE.
SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT..WITH THE 7 FOOTERS
RESERVED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE 1 TO 3 FOOT UNDERLYING
SE GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. OVERALL...DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 7 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES
DOMINATING THE SEAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS PERIOD CREATING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SHARPENING
PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL HELP WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RISE UP TOWARDS 20 KTS BRIEFLY WED AND THU EVE...BEFORE FALLING
BACK AGAIN EACH NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER
OF SEAS...WITH A 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS...UP TO 5
FT AT TIMES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
RIDGED ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW LATE. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY THE WINDS...WITH 3-4
FT SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY AS THE SPEEDS
EASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
626 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...REACHING THE ILM SC CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM NC CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER SUPPORT THAT WILL AID IN DRAWING IN
THE MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST KLTX VWP. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
POPS WILL BE ORIENTED LOWEST INLAND...ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE
GROUNDS HAVE BEEN ABSORBING THE RECENT RAINS LIKE A SPONGE OF
LATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. EVENTHOUGH FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED SOME...ITS JUST NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT
QPF FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AT ONE HALF TO 1 INCH. WITH
PWS PROGGED AT 2+ INCH AMOUNTS...THE FA STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE STRONGER AND MORE EFFICIENT
CONVECTION. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING
OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS THOSE NORMALLY PRONE AND VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90S WELL INLAND...AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE AROUND 70
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CREATING
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND
COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EVEN COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS
PINNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM TUESDAY
WILL PREVENT ANYTHING BEYOND JUST A FEW STORMS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM...MID AND UPR 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 ON
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.
SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S AT THE COAST
AND MID 90S INLAND...BUT LIKE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO THANKS TO GREATER
INSTABILITY ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT ONLY
LOW-CHC POP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE LED BY A POTENT
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE. FOLLOWING WPC PROGS AS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL
THROUGH THE WKND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST
WKND. HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AND
THUS THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...SO WILL OPTIMISTICALLY SHOW AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...AFTER
SEASONABLE BUT WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE
TO A SFC LOW MOVING N BY NE AND MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
SC AND NC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH
OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO
25 KT SPEEDS. GUSTS OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY MIXING FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS
AND THE KLTX VWP INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN
SFC. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LEAVING A SW-WSW 10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT..WITH THE 7
FOOTERS RESERVED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE 1 TO 3 FOOT UNDERLYING
SE GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. OVERALL...DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 7 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES
DOMINATING THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS PERIOD CREATING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SHARPENING
PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL HELP WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RISE UP TOWARDS 20 KTS BRIEFLY WED AND THU EVE...BEFORE FALLING
BACK AGAIN EACH NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER
OF SEAS...WITH A 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS...UP TO 5
FT AT TIMES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH EVENING.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
RIDGED ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW LATE. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY THE WINDS...WITH 3-4
FT SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY AS THE SPEEDS
EASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
928 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
10 PM CDT. UPDATED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO. THIS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. MAIN UPDATES TO FORECAST WERE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TIMING OF POPS WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM
FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85. 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN LINE WITH THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND FOCUSING CENTRAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PWATS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH TALL...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTING
SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. AREAS
THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE LONGEST IS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00 UTC GEFS QPF MODEL CLIMATE IN
THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILES FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
HAS BEEN NOTED AS A FLASH FLOOD SIGNAL IN PREVIOUS EVENTS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE RECENT
WEEKS...POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MAY STILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING EVEN WITH DRY SOILS. FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...INCLUDING MANDAN...BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT/06-12 FRIDAY AS LIKELY POPS DWINDLE AND THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY DRAGGING TWO SURFACE COLD FRONTS THROUGH...ONE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. HOWEVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT-80KT JET STREAK SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ATOP OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER OR
NEAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET. ALTHOUGH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG/NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY FOR
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND INCREASE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE BORDER SUNDAY. THEREAFTER A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH A TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE WEST FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK OR SIGNS OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST A BIT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORM VCNTY. AT 9 PM CDT...A WARM
FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
HIGHWAY 83. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN.
THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
06Z. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MVFR TO IFR IN THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
KDIK-KBIS AFT 14Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
652 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO. THIS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. MAIN UPDATES TO FORECAST WERE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TIMING OF POPS WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM
FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85. 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN LINE WITH THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND FOCUSING CENTRAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PWATS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH TALL...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTING
SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. AREAS
THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE LONGEST IS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00 UTC GEFS QPF MODEL CLIMATE IN
THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILES FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
HAS BEEN NOTED AS A FLASH FLOOD SIGNAL IN PREVIOUS EVENTS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE RECENT
WEEKS...POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MAY STILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING EVEN WITH DRY SOILS. FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...INCLUDING MANDAN...BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT/06-12 FRIDAY AS LIKELY POPS DWINDLE AND THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY DRAGGING TWO SURFACE COLD FRONTS THROUGH...ONE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. HOWEVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT-80KT JET STREAK SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ATOP OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER OR
NEAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET. ALTHOUGH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG/NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY FOR
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND INCREASE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE BORDER SUNDAY. THEREAFTER A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH A TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE WEST FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK OR SIGNS OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST A BIT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE VCNTY. AT 6 PM CDT...A WARM FRONT
EXTENDEDACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHWAY
83. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDE4RSTORMAS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER 06Z.
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MVFR TO IFR IN THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
KDIK-KBIS AFT 14Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
642 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES. BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN
QUEBEC NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE
AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
MAINLY DUE TO HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN
OHIO OR NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG
CHANGE BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE.
WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER
THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP
INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS
COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED-
THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
351 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN QUEBEC NEAR
HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING MAINLY DUE TO
HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN OHIO OR
NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT
REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG CHANGE BUT
BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA DROPPING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER
THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP
INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS
COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED-
THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
334 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PRODUCING SOME STRONG TSRA
EARLY THIS AM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES COLD FRONT IS ONLY JUST ENTERING THE NW MTNS AT 07Z AND
NEAR TERM MDLS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AM TO CLEAR
LANCASTER CO. HOWEVER...MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION BY DAWN. THUS...EXPECT BACK
EDGE OF SCT CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BTWN 08Z-10Z...AS THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS.
CLEARING SKIES...LGT WIND AND WET GROUND IS ALREADY PROMOTING
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NW MTNS AS OF 07Z AND EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ARND DAWN...AS
CLEARING SPREADS EAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE U50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CHILLY MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE N MTNS THIS AFTN. A SHOT OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN LOOP OF SATL-DERIVED PWATS...WILL
SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PA TODAY...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MSUNNY AND DRY WX OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.
MDL 8H TEMPS RANGING FROM 13C-16C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED AFTN WGUSTS TO 15-20KTS BASED ON AMT OF
MIXING EXPECTED AND MDL 850 WIND FIELDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. RADAR TRENDS
ARE STILL FAVORING THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND RISK OF TSTM IMPACTS. THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA SUGGESTS
STORMS DO NOT EXIT THE ERN AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR UNTIL 08-10Z.
WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED SINCE
00Z...SUSTAINED TERMINAL IMPACTS/SUB-VFR SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THE
STORMS ARE PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD.
THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVN CONCERN IS IFR FOG OR LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CLEAR. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR
THE WRN TAFS GIVEN COMBO OF WLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND NARROWING DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THE 06Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CAN FURTHER ADDRESS THIS IF NEEDED.
FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 15-22Z.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
824 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT SUPPORT FOR WIND...WHICH DID OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION WEST OF RAPID CITY. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE PLOWING NORTHEAST FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS.
SECONDARY WAVE NOTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WY...WHICH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
PICKS UP ON AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ND OVERNIGHT. TAIL END OF
WAVE MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING BEHIND INITIAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING ONTO THE SD
PLAINS. STRENGTH OF MUCAPE SLOWLY WANES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TWEAKED FOR TIMING...BUT LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AS UPPER LOW
CIRCULATES OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH JUST
SOME CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE CWA. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE OF
FRONTOGENESIS/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND EXPAND
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INITIAL WAVE WITH BEST FORCING
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BRINGING A BAND OF STORMS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. HRRR THIS
MORNING WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWEST SD EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LATER RUNS
ARE SHOWING A MORE SCATTERED FORM. MLCAPE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AROUND
750 J/KG ON THE PLAINS WITH 1500 J/KG OVER THE HILLS...BUT SHEAR
IS 35-45 KTS SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SD THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS AND ALSO BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHWESTERN SD.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SD
DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE WAVE FINALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OUT OF
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK FOR SAT-SUN. HOWEVER...STRONG
INDICATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIG LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE SAT-SUN PERIOD AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA
EJECTS NE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MONSOON MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TS IN THIS PERIOD ESP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
TS OVER THE BLACK HILLS TUES WHEN BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE
SAT/SUN WITH INCREASING FLOW SUPPORTING DECENT BULK SHEAR /0-6KM/
NUMBERS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...WITH 1-2 KJ/KG OF CAPE OVER THE SE FA.
HOWEVER...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER SYSTEM TRACK/SPEED TO ASCERTAIN
A BETTER GRASP ON SEVERE PROBS.
AFTER A SEASONAL DAY FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN EXPECTED SUNDAY.. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER ON TRACK FOR TUE AND BEYOND WITH 90S EXPECTED. A FEW 100/S A
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SCATTERED TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
553 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AS UPPER LOW
CIRCULATES OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH JUST
SOME CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE CWA. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE OF
FRONTOGENESIS/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND EXPAND
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INITIAL WAVE WITH BEST FORCING
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BRINGING A BAND OF STORMS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. HRRR THIS
MORNING WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWEST SD EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LATER RUNS
ARE SHOWING A MORE SCATTERED FORM. MLCAPE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AROUND
750 J/KG ON THE PLAINS WITH 1500 J/KG OVER THE HILLS...BUT SHEAR
IS 35-45 KTS SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SD THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS AND ALSO BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHWESTERN SD.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SD
DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE WAVE FINALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OUT OF
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK FOR SAT-SUN. HOWEVER...STRONG
INDICATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIG LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE SAT-SUN PERIOD AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA
EJECTS NE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MONSOON MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TS IN THIS PERIOD ESP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
TS OVER THE BLACK HILLS TUES WHEN BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE
SAT/SUN WITH INCREASING FLOW SUPPORTING DECENT BULK SHEAR /0-6KM/
NUMBERS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...WITH 1-2 KJ/KG OF CAPE OVER THE SE FA.
HOWEVER...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER SYSTEM TRACK/SPEED TO ASCERTAIN
A BETTER GRASP ON SEVERE PROBS.
AFTER A SEASONAL DAY FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN EXPECTED SUNDAY.. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER ON TRACK FOR TUE AND BEYOND WITH 90S EXPECTED. A FEW 100/S A
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SCATTERED TSRA WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
WITH LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING. OUTSIDE OF STORMS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
326 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE 1 LAST DAY OF LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION.
MODELS DID A GOOD JOB WITH THE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO OUR NORTH
WHERE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING ISOL
TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS KY.
GOING FORWARD...MODELS HINGING ON AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
OK. GFS AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CARRY THIS SYSTEM OUR WAY AND ACTUALLY
BRING IN SOME CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NW NEAR 12Z. NAM IS DELAYING THE
ONSET OF MOISTURE UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL LEAN
TOWARD A BLEND AND INCLUDE DESCENT POPS FOR WED THROUGH THU. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WILL BE WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THU.
TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THU NT LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES NW TO AROUND 1/2 INCH SE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE
STRENGTH...THE NAM MODEL LOOKS RATHER POTENT ON THU AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS MATCH UP
WITH A 40 KT LLJ AND RESPECTABLE CAPES. THE GFS HOWEVER IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND THE SITUATION LOOKS UNSTABLE. FUTURE
MODELS WILL HOPEFULLY SORT THIS OUT.
FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ITS BEEN QUITE HOT TODAY...HIGHS HAVE
REACHED WELL INTO THE 90S. QUITE THE DISCREPANCY WITH THE HIGH TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. MET SUGGESTS 92F FOR BNA AND THE MAV
SUGGESTS 80F. THIS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE THAT
ARRIVES TOMORROW. WILL OPT TO BLEND BUT TREND TOWARD THE GFS AND GO
WITH A HIGH OF 84F. THU WILL AGAIN FEATURE BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.
IN THE EXT FCST...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT AND THE
TYPICAL NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESUME. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
LOOK HIT/MISS. NO OVERLY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INDICATED.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE THEME OF LOW POPS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.
FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
THUS...LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 74 84 70 85 / 10 40 60 70
CLARKSVILLE 72 83 69 83 / 20 50 70 70
CROSSVILLE 70 84 67 80 / 10 40 60 80
COLUMBIA 73 87 70 87 / 10 30 60 70
LAWRENCEBURG 72 87 69 87 / 10 40 60 70
WAVERLY 73 84 69 84 / 20 50 70 70
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
21
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SEA BREEZE MOVED INLAND EARLIER
TODAY. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WAS REFLECTED BY PW/S UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES AS SEEN ON THE SPC RAP OUTPUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...THE NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SHOWED WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINATION
HAS GENERATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
EVEN SO...THE NAM12 AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 15
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE AND MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE BUILDING
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT WERE
FORECASTING ACTUAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES AS HIGH AS 99 TO 102 IN SOME PLACES WELL INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAT INDEX MAY REACH 103 TO 108 OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN MAY POSSIBLY EXCEED 108 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
40
&&
.AVIATION...
KEPT MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST SITES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN GIVEN
THE TRENDS. MODELS INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH PWS (JUST OVER 2") TO
PERSIST THRU TOMORROW AFTN SO WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS NOTED FOR SOME SITES THIS MORNING. 41
&&
.MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH AFTN FCST PACKAGE FOR THE MARINE ZONES AS
THE CURRENT WX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VARIATIONS. ISO/WIDELY SCT POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW GIVEN THE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 79 98 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
123 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO TWEAK RAIN CHANCES. SPC WRF WAS ANALYZING 1.8 TO
2 INCH PW/S ACROSS THE I-10 AND SOUTHWARD CORRIDOR. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD. RADAR AT 1130 AM SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TO NEAR
GALVESTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR WHARTON TO
GALVESTON...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
APPEARING TO KEEP THE COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIED FOR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE 12Z NAM12 CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LOOKED TO BE DUE TO THE MODEL SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
FOR NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL WATCH TRENDS
AND UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MODELS (NAM12/GFS) SENDING A BIT OF A MIXED MESSAGE THIS MORNING
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES AT KIAH
THIS AFTN BUT MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN BARE. THOUGHT THE RAP
INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP TODAY. FEEL SHRA
WILL GENERALLY STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND IMPACT
KGLS...KLBX AND KHOU. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS INTO TEXAS... WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CO/WY AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SPINNING ABOUT 800 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES/ WAS LOCATED OVER
WHARTON... JACKSON... AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES PER GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MATAGORDA BAY WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY... THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. THIS... COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE... WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS DCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON... BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST... WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FARTHER INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BREAKS OUT A FEW SHOWERS FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS ACTIVITY WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER HOT DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BUT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY IS PROBABLY THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FARTHER EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW
100S BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUILDS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY... WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A SW-S WIND
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TODAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD. RADAR AT 1130 AM SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TO NEAR
GALVESTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR WHARTON TO
GALVESTON...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
APPEARING TO KEEP THE COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIED FOR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE 12Z NAM12 CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LOOKED TO BE DUE TO THE MODEL SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
FOR NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL WATCH TRENDS
AND UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.
40
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MODELS (NAM12/GFS) SENDING A BIT OF A MIXED MESSAGE THIS MORNING
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES AT KIAH
THIS AFTN BUT MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN BARE. THOUGHT THE RAP
INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP TODAY. FEEL SHRA
WILL GENERALLY STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND IMPACT
KGLS...KLBX AND KHOU. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS INTO TEXAS... WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CO/WY AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SPINNING ABOUT 800 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES/ WAS LOCATED OVER
WHARTON... JACKSON... AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES PER GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MATAGORDA BAY WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY... THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. THIS... COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE... WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS DCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON... BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST... WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FARTHER INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BREAKS OUT A FEW SHOWERS FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS ACTIVITY WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER HOT DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BUT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY IS PROBABLY THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FARTHER EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW
100S BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUILDS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY... WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A SW-S WIND
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TODAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TO NEAR
GALVESTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR WHARTON TO
GALVESTON...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
APPEARING TO KEEP THE COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIED FOR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE 12Z NAM12 CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LOOKED TO BE DUE TO THE MODEL SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.
FOR NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL WATCH TRENDS
AND UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.
40
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
MODELS (NAM12/GFS) SENDING A BIT OF A MIXED MESSAGE THIS MORNING
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES AT KIAH
THIS AFTN BUT MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN BARE. THOUGHT THE RAP
INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP TODAY. FEEL SHRA
WILL GENERALLY STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND IMPACT
KGLS...KLBX AND KHOU. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS INTO TEXAS... WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CO/WY AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SPINNING ABOUT 800 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES/ WAS LOCATED OVER
WHARTON... JACKSON... AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES PER GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MATAGORDA BAY WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY... THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. THIS... COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE... WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS DCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON... BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST... WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FARTHER INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BREAKS OUT A FEW SHOWERS FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS ACTIVITY WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER HOT DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BUT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY IS PROBABLY THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FARTHER EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW
100S BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUILDS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY... WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A SW-S WIND
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TODAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODELS (NAM12/GFS) SENDING A BIT OF A MIXED MESSAGE THIS MORNING
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES AT KIAH
THIS AFTN BUT MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN BARE. THOUGHT THE RAP
INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP TODAY. FEEL SHRA
WILL GENERALLY STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND IMPACT
KGLS...KLBX AND KHOU. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS INTO TEXAS... WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CO/WY AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SPINNING ABOUT 800 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES/ WAS LOCATED OVER
WHARTON... JACKSON... AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES PER GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MATAGORDA BAY WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.
AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY... THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. THIS... COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE... WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS DCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON... BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST... WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FARTHER INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BREAKS OUT A FEW SHOWERS FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS ACTIVITY WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER HOT DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BUT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY IS PROBABLY THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FARTHER EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW
100S BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUILDS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY... WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A SW-S WIND
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TODAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
1153 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOON PLUME BEING ADVECTED EAST INTO
THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR RAWLINS. DRY SLOT MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS TIME. STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT 2 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAIN DID FALL ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES YESTERDAY UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME.
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE THIS PLUME TODAY.
DO BELIEVE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY...THOUGH LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME EARLY DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1300J/KG OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON OUT IN THE PANHANDLE MAKES ME THINK
THAT HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DID INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ZONES AND NIOBRARA/NORTHERN GOSHEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD CREATE SLOW MOVING STORMS...SO
DAY CREW WOULD NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING
WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END AFTER THAT
TIME. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS ON THE INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. GFS 700MB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR OUR REGION IN A
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WHICH MAY YIELD TO SOME ANOMALOUS 700MB
FLOW(~30-35KTS). IF THINGS REALLY MIX OUT ON THURSDAY WE COULD
END WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
COULD BE QUITE WARM ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID. WE DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE BLENDS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THE
WIND SPEEDS DO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A TAD COOLER WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION WHICH MAY BRING BACK THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHT FALLS STAY FOCUSED
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE MONSOONAL FETCH MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
WHICH MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CAN
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WE MAY SEE A STRONGER FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL PLAY THINGS CONSERVATIVE UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A
BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
AVIATION. AFTER 06Z... FOG MAY DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 15Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE 301...302 AND 311 WHERE HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
CANADA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WYOMING WHERE AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...CLH/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
546 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOON PLUME BEING ADVECTED EAST INTO
THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR RAWLINS. DRY SLOT MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS TIME. STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT 2 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAIN DID FALL ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES YESTERDAY UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME.
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE THIS PLUME TODAY.
DO BELIEVE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY...THOUGH LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME EARLY DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1300J/KG OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON OUT IN THE PANHANDLE MAKES ME THINK
THAT HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DID INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ZONES AND NIOBRARA/NORTHERN GOSHEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD CREATE SLOW MOVING STORMS...SO
DAY CREW WOULD NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING
WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END AFTER THAT
TIME. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS ON THE INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. GFS 700MB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR OUR REGION IN A
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WHICH MAY YIELD TO SOME ANOMALOUS 700MB
FLOW(~30-35KTS). IF THINGS REALLY MIX OUT ON THURSDAY WE COULD
END WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
COULD BE QUITE WARM ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID. WE DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE BLENDS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THE
WIND SPEEDS DO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A TAD COOLER WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION WHICH MAY BRING BACK THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHT FALLS STAY FOCUSED
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE MONSOONAL FETCH MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
WHICH MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CAN
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WE MAY SEE A STRONGER FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL PLAY THINGS CONSERVATIVE UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A
BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST CARBON COUNTY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THE KRWL TAF SITE THROUGH MID
MORNING UNTIL THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE 301...302 AND 311 WHERE HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
CANADA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WYOMING WHERE AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHEYENNE WY
300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOON PLUME BEING ADVECTED EAST INTO
THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR RAWLINS. DRY SLOT MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS TIME. STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT 2 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAIN DID FALL ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES YESTERDAY UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME.
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE THIS PLUME TODAY.
DO BELIEVE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY...THOUGH LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME EARLY DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1300J/KG OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON OUT IN THE PANHANDLE MAKES ME THINK
THAT HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DID INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ZONES AND NIOBRARA/NORTHERN GOSHEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD CREATE SLOW MOVING STORMS...SO
DAY CREW WOULD NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.
UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING
WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END AFTER THAT
TIME. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS ON THE INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. GFS 700MB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR OUR REGION IN A
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WHICH MAY YIELD TO SOME ANOMALOUS 700MB
FLOW(~30-35KTS). IF THINGS REALLY MIX OUT ON THURSDAY WE COULD
END WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
COULD BE QUITE WARM ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID. WE DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE BLENDS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THE
WIND SPEEDS DO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A TAD COOLER WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION WHICH MAY BRING BACK THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHT FALLS STAY FOCUSED
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE MONSOONAL FETCH MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
WHICH MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CAN
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WE MAY SEE A STRONGER FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL PLAY THINGS CONSERVATIVE UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A
BIT CLEARER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL
WYOMING. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT THE RWL TAF SITE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT RWL. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS EAST TODAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY KICK IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE WITH RWL...LAR AND CYS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING GUSTS UP TO 35KTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE 301...302 AND 311 WHERE HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
CANADA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WYOMING WHERE AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
330 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
RAIN WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF I-72 THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH PCPN COULD LINGER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY COLD TOPS OVER PARTS OF
ILLINOIS SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY. RIDGING SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD REDUCE SOME OF THE CLOUDS IN
THAT AREA. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD BE CLOUDY THROUGH THE
DAY. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS BEING IN THE EAST AT AROUND 10MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SIMILAR
TO WEDNESDAY...BUT THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WHERE THE PCPN AND CLOUDS LINGER THE LONGEST. LOOKING FOR
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST...WITH LOWER 80S IN
THE WEST/NORTHWEST.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
DRY CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IL
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FROM
GALESBURG NW FRIDAY MORNING AND NW OF THE IL RIVER SATURDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES EAST OVER IL TONIGHT BRINGING
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. COULD BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT KEPT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW SINCE FEEL
THIS WILL BE FAIRLY ISOLATED IS IT OCCURS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOWER
60S WITH SOME UPPER 50S FROM CHAMPAIGN NE. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND EASTERN MT TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO MN BY 18Z/FRI
AND HAVE SOME SHORT WAVES AHEAD OF IT INTO WI AND NORTHERN HALF OF
IL. THIS COULD BRING ISOLATED CONVECTION TO FAR NORTHERN CWA FRIDAY
MORNING WITH BETTER CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 ON FRIDAY. HIGHS FRIDAY
MOSTLY 82-84F WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
00Z MODELS SHOW A STRONGER MCS TO MOVE OUT OF NE/IA INTO
CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL LATE SAT AND MORE LIKELY SAT NIGHT. HAVE SLIGHT
CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NW OF IL RIVER SAT AND THEN LIKELY
POPS SAT NIGHT NW OF IL RIVER WHILE SLIGHT POPS FAR SE IL LATE SAT
NIGHT. SPC HAS MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS LATE SAT AFTERNOON AND
SAT NIGHT OVER CENTRAL IL. HIGHS SAT 83-85 WITH DEWPOINTS IN UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70F. HAVE 40-50% CHANCE OF CONVECTION SUNDAY ESPECIALLY
IN THE MORNING FROM LINGERING MCS ACTIVITY. HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS 68-73F.
A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IL MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SOUTHEAST IL MONDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAN ECMWF MODEL...BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH
FRONT FROM THEIR RUNS 24 HOURS AGO. CARRIED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUDNERSTORMS MONDAY AND 20-30% CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT
ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY EVENING. HIGHS MONDAY IN LOW TO MID 80S
WITH WARMEST READINGS SE OF I-70 WHERE UPPER 80S POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED MODELS SHOW A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEAST U.S. BY
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WHILE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS INTO
CO. SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTING SE ACROSS MIDWEST TUE-THU AND BRINGING
DRY AND LESS HUMID AIR INTO IL WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TUE AND
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S WED/THU. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S
AND LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND THE AFFECT ON CIGS. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO ROTATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS SE
MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
COME AROUND WITH THE IDEA OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HRRR MODEL INDICATING A BAND OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
TO APPROACH A SPI TO CMI LINE AFTER 07Z WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB THAN WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST
BY 18Z TAKING ANY RAIN THREAT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. MAY SEE
SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS KDEC
AND KCMI AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KTS ON THUR...ESPECIALLY
AT KDEC...KBMI AND KCMI. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
22 KTS AT TIMES THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS START TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1110 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS AN MCV FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION
WAS EDGING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OVER SOUTHERN IL LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ROUGHLY
AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SPRINGFIELD TO CHAMPAIGN LINE WITH THE
MORE CONCENTRATED QPF/HEAVIER RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IL. THE
SMALL BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS THAT MOVED MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A JACKSONVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD LINE DUMPED SOME FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN A NARROW BAND FROM WAVERLY WEST TO JUST
SOUTH OF WINCHESTER WHERE 1 TO 2 INCHES WAS ESTIMATED FROM LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
AS THE MCV EDGES SLOWLY INTO SOUTHERN IL WE SHOULD SEE A BETTER
SURFACE REFLECTION DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD ENHANCE THE
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE RAPID REFRESH MODEL HAS
BEEN SUGGESTING THE PRECIP SHOULD START TO REORGANIZE FURTHER
SOUTH CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND MCV. SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWING
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.1 INCHES OVER OUR FAR SOUTH/SE
COUNTIES WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THESE AREAS SHOWING VERY
LITTLE WIND FLOW ALOFT SO ANY SHOWERS THAT ORGANIZE CLOSE TO
THE SURFACE WAVE AND STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS WITH SOME OF THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SUGGESTING 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST IL BY
THURSDAY MORNING. WITH SUCH WEAK STEERING WINDS FORECAST INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...IT APPEARS THE SLOWER SOLUTION WITH RESPECT TO
THE SYSTEM EXITING OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IS LOOKING MORE REASONABLE.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-72 TONIGHT WITH PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
POPS AS YOU HEAD NORTH. HAVE ALREADY SENT OUT AN UPDATED SET OF
ZONE FORECASTS TO BETTER REFLECT THE ONGONG RAIN ACROSS THE WEST
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SLOW
MOVING MCV AND SURFACE WAVE OVER SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS OVERNIGHT. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE WATCHING
FOR THIS SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE NEED TO ADJUST OUR POPS
FURTHER NORTH. LATEST IR SATELLITE INDICATES SOME COOLING CLOUD
TOPS STARTING TO DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV BUT AT THE SAME
TIME WE HAVE NOTICED AN INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION ALONG AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION STARTING TO FLARE UP FROM
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA EAST THROUGH NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. IF THAT AREA
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED...IT MAY EFFECTIVELY KEEP THE BETTER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN THE HIGHER QPF
VALUES STAYING JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
RATHER DIFFUSE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH AN MCS
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING PRECIP ALONG A QUASI
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL SET UP.
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ENHANCING THAT ACTIVITY AS THE MCV FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MO MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST. WITH THE
MODELS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH, HAVE SOME CONCERNS AS TO GOING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH PRECIPITATION
ABSENT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER
SOUTH, THE MODELS HAVE OVERDONE SOME OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
HAVE DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES TO COUNTER THIS NORTH OF I-
72.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER TO START THE DAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, UNTIL A WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, THE
BULK OF THE UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO A MCV MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, MOST OF THURSDAY WILL WIND UP
BEING DRY.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, DRY WEATHER HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS PROGGED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER
WAVE MAY TRACK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED INTO
THE AREA. THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THIS JET, COUPLED WITH THE
SHEARING OUT OF THE WAVE, SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
LOCALLY.
UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
IS FAR FROM UNANIMOUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OR WHERE IT MAY TRACK,
POSSIBLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THEN, BEHIND THIS POTENTIAL MCS, THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FRONT, WITH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERN CONTINUES TO REVOLVE AROUND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT AND THE AFFECT ON CIGS. BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES
TO ROTATE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ACROSS SE
MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. MOST SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE
COME AROUND WITH THE IDEA OF THE PRECIP SHIFTING TO OR JUST SOUTH
OF A RUSHVILLE TO BLOOMINGTON LINE LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. HRRR MODEL INDICATING A BAND OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS
TO APPROACH A SPI TO CMI LINE AFTER 07Z WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING MUCH MORE MOISTURE BELOW 850 MB THAN WHAT WE SAW
EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE WAVE WILL SHIFT OFF TO OUR EAST
BY 18Z TAKING ANY RAIN THREAT AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. MAY SEE
SOME LOWER VFR CIGS LINGER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS KDEC
AND KCMI AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS BUT IT APPEARS WE SHOULD SEE A
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE WEAK STORM SYSTEM. SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 7 TO 12 KTS TONIGHT AND NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12 AND 17 KTS ON THUR...ESPECIALLY
AT KDEC...KBMI AND KCMI. WE MAY EVEN SEE A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND
22 KTS AT TIMES THRU MID AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS START TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS SUNSET.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
214 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SMALL THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG H7
THERMAL RIDGE AS PERSISTENT WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FAIRLY LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN THIS
LAYER KEEP CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED LOW.
OTHERWISE WITH DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
HUMID AIRMASS BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. STILL A LARGE
DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL FOG FORECASTS WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINING FAIRLY LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES.
THAT BEING SAID...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC-H85 TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY
SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT AREA OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CWA AND SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
MODELS INITIALLY WELL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SREF WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND RAP ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE SREF AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ALONG THE WESTERN END OF
THE AREA WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THERE
ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK JET LIFT AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT.
INITIALLY THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOW
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASE A GREAT DEAL IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MODELS WOULD INDICATE
A STRONG CAP ALOFT BUT MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS
ACTIVITY. IF THE LIFT BREAKS THE CAP...THE INSTABILITY AND PWS ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY...THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME FOG AND ESPECIALLY STRATUS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT WOULD INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH
COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. THIS DOES
MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH.
SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER...SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...AND THE BOUNDARY TIMING. SO WENT COOLER IN THE EAST
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LASTS LONGER AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
THE COOLEST. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IT
DOES APPEAR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MDT THU AUG 6 2015
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL ONCE AGAIN BE DOMINATED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT SETS UP OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
CONUS STARTING SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WESTWARD AND
BECOME A HIGH AMPLITUDE MERIDIONAL PATTERN MONDAY AND WILL LAST FOR
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE JET STREAM ACTIVITY
AND VORTICITY AREAS WILL REMAIN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION.
AT THE SURFACE...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN PLACE JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA ON SUNDAY.
BECAUSE OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. AS OF RIGHT NOW THOUGH...IT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF MOST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY REMAINED TO
THE SOUTH ALONG THE BEST AREAS OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE. IF THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS TO THE SOUTH...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT
COOLER THAN AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. IF THE BOUNDARY ENDS UP SHIFTING
NORTHWARD...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING MOIST DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MIDDLE 60S AND BETTER STORM CHANCES. REGARDLESS OF THE
FRONTAL POSITION...ECMWF AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE THROUGHOUT THE PROFILE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.5 INCHES...WHICH IS BETWEEN THE 75TH AND 99TH
PERCENTILE FOR AUGUST. WITH CAPE PRESENT IN THE PROFILES BETWEEN
1000 AND 2000 J/KG AND A LACK OF GOOD BULK SHEAR VALUES...EXPECTING
ANY POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MARGINALLY STRONG TO SEVERE
WITH THE MAIN POTENTIAL BEING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
ONCE THE RIDGE ALOFT AMPLIFIES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH WILL BE VERY NEARLY POSITIONED RIGHT OVER NORTHWEST
KANSAS. AS A RESULT...NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR PRECIPITATION OR
CLOUD COVER. CONSENSUS FORECAST WAS INDICATING SOME CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DUE TO
THE SYNOPTIC SET UP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
CONFIDENCE IN A LOW STRATUS SET UP OVER FOG HAS INCREASED WITH 2-5
HOUR PERIOD OF MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT GLD AROUND 12Z.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS AT MCK...WITH STRATUS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE MORNING AND LIKELY WITH HEIGHTS A BIT HIGHER THAN AT GLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1136 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SMALL THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG H7
THERMAL RIDGE AS PERSISTENT WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FAIRLY LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN THIS
LAYER KEEP CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED LOW.
OTHERWISE WITH DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
HUMID AIRMASS BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. STILL A LARGE
DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL FOG FORECASTS WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINING FAIRLY LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES.
THAT BEING SAID...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC-H85 TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY
SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT AREA OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CWA AND SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
MODELS INITIALLY WELL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SREF WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND RAP ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE SREF AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ALONG THE WESTERN END OF
THE AREA WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THERE
ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK JET LIFT AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT.
INITIALLY THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOW
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASE A GREAT DEAL IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MODELS WOULD INDICATE
A STRONG CAP ALOFT BUT MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS
ACTIVITY. IF THE LIFT BREAKS THE CAP...THE INSTABILITY AND PWS ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY...THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME FOG AND ESPECIALLY STRATUS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT WOULD INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH
COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. THIS DOES
MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH.
SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER...SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...AND THE BOUNDARY TIMING. SO WENT COOLER IN THE EAST
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LASTS LONGER AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
THE COOLEST. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IT
DOES APPEAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING...THEY ARE
PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES BY 00Z/SAT AND STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20KTS...NEITHER PARAMETER REALLY SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME
LOCAL DELUGES...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER.
THE PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH ON SATURDAY WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WILD CARD WILL BE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION AND WILL BE HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY PROVE TO BE PIVOTAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SHARPLY
NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM CANADA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR THIS REASON AM
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE DERIVED BLENDS USED TO INITIATE THE EXTENDED THE PERIODS.
NONETHELESS...SURFACE PROGS SHOW A CONSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH RESULTANT INSTABILITY EACH DAY. SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR LIFT AND ANY MINOR DISTURBANCE WHICH
MAY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LOW UNDER THE
RIDGE SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
CONFIDENCE IN A LOW STRATUS SET UP OVER FOG HAS INCREASED WITH 2-5
HOUR PERIOD OF MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT GLD AROUND 12Z.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS AT MCK...WITH STRATUS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE MORNING AND LIKELY WITH HEIGHTS A BIT HIGHER THAN AT GLD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1026 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SMALL THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG H7
THERMAL RIDGE AS PERSISTENT WAA AND WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. FAIRLY LARGE T-TD SPREADS IN THIS
LAYER KEEP CONFIDENCE IN POTENTIAL INSTABILITY BEING REALIZED LOW.
OTHERWISE WITH DRYLINE HAVING RETREATED TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
HUMID AIRMASS BACK IN PLACE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. STILL A LARGE
DEGREE OF SPREAD WITH POTENTIAL FOG FORECASTS WITH ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE REMAINING FAIRLY LOW ON POTENTIAL FOR LOW VISIBILITIES.
THAT BEING SAID...WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SFC-H85 TROUGH SLOWLY
ADVANCING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND AFOREMENTIONED NEARLY
SATURATED LOW LEVEL AIRMASS EXPECT AREA OF STRATUS TO DEVELOP
ACROSS CWA AND SLOWLY ADVANCE TO THE EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
MODELS INITIALLY WELL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SREF WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND RAP ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE SREF AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ALONG THE WESTERN END OF
THE AREA WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THERE
ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK JET LIFT AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT.
INITIALLY THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOW
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASE A GREAT DEAL IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MODELS WOULD INDICATE
A STRONG CAP ALOFT BUT MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS
ACTIVITY. IF THE LIFT BREAKS THE CAP...THE INSTABILITY AND PWS ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY...THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME FOG AND ESPECIALLY STRATUS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT WOULD INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH
COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. THIS DOES
MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH.
SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER...SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...AND THE BOUNDARY TIMING. SO WENT COOLER IN THE EAST
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LASTS LONGER AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
THE COOLEST. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IT
DOES APPEAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING...THEY ARE
PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES BY 00Z/SAT AND STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20KTS...NEITHER PARAMETER REALLY SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME
LOCAL DELUGES...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER.
THE PATTERN DOESN`T CHANGE MUCH ON SATURDAY WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WILD CARD WILL BE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION AND WILL BE HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY PROVE TO BE PIVOTAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SHARPLY
NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM CANADA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR THIS REASON AM
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE DERIVED BLENDS USED TO INITIATE THE EXTENDED THE PERIODS.
NONETHELESS...SURFACE PROGS SHOW A CONSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH RESULTANT INSTABILITY EACH DAY. SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR LIFT AND ANY MINOR DISTURBANCE WHICH
MAY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LOW UNDER THE
RIDGE SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED AT 1020 PM MDT...
CONFIDENCE IN A LOW STRATUS SET UP OVER FOG HAS INCREASED WITH 2-5
HOUR PERIOD OF MFVR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT GLD AROUND 12Z.
POTENTIAL FOR FOG REMAINS AT MCK...WITH STRATUS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE MORNING AND LIKELY WITH HEIGHTS A BIT HIGHER THAN AT GLD.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
AREA BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TERMINAL FORECASTS
BUT MAY HAVE A STORM OR TWO NEAR MCK VICINITY LATER TONIGHT. FOG
POTENTIAL AGAIN A CONCERN AND THINK MOST LIKELY AREA WILL BE EAST
OF A TO TRIBUNE LINE WITH HIGHEST CHANCES AT MCK.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1158 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MINOR UPDATE TO ADDRESS MOVEMENT OF WEAKENED MCV/OPEN SHORTWAVE
CIRCULATION TO THE NORTH AND THE GRADIENT LIFT ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE IMPRESSED STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BORDER OF THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA.
THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THE MEAN LIFT AND ROTATION AROUND THE
CIRCULATION IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS IS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH THAN
ADVERTISED BY THE 12KM NAM-WRF. HOWEVER...AS THE NEXT WAVE ROTATES
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AFTER MIDNIGHT, ENOUGH FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE TO LIFT AND CONDENSE MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO WEST KENTUCKY...WHILE MAINTAINING LIFT
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN CIRCULATION CENTER IN SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS.
WITH THAT SCENARIO IN PLACE...WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
PLACE FOR THE WFO PAH FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THERE MAY BE AN
OPPORTUNITY AFTER MIDNIGHT TO DROP NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS BEFORE 7 AM CDT...AS THE EVOLUTION
OF THE LAST MINOR IMPULSE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI TAKES PLACE
ALONG AND SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO REFLECT SHORT TERM
PRECIPITATION AND SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS VARIATIONS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI WILL PUSH
THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN
LIKELY PIVOT TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BAND OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WEST KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. NOTICING NEW
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF KSTL AS THE
PRIMARY CIRCULATION TAKES SHAPE OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI. THIS MAY
BE THE BEGINNING OF A DEFORMATION ZONE ABOUT THE CIRCULATION.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EAST THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...SO FIGURE THERE WILL STILL BE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SO WILL KEEP
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING FOR THE ENTIRE ARE AT THIS TIME...BUT
IT MAY BE MORE OF AN AREAL FLOOD EVENT...AND NOT SO MUCH OF A
FLASH FLOOD EVENT. PLAN ON CANCELING AT LEAST THE WESTERN 4
COUNTIES IN MISSOURI ONCE THE LINE HAS PASSED THERE IN AN HOUR OR
TWO.
FIGURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE DONE BEFORE 18Z
THURSDAY IN THE EAST...BUT WILL KEEP A CHANCE IN THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON JUST TO GIVE IT A WIDE BERTH. STILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF CONVECTION MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE PUSHES SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UNLIKE MOST LATE SUMMER SITUATION...THE NORMALLY DOMINANT SOUTHEAST
U.S. RIDGE IS NOTICEABLY ABSENT THIS SUMMER. ALTHOUGH CPC SUGGESTS
CURRENT EL NINO REGIME IMPACT IS MINIMAL ACROSS THE U.S. ...WE
CONTINUE TO BE LOCKED INTO A MEAN NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WITH THE
MEAN CENTER OF THE BROAD 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAFFLING BETWEEN
TEXAS AND THE FOUR CORNERS AREA OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MODEL INITIALIZATION...FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE...GIVES CREDENCE
TO THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GFS SOLUTIONS FOR THE MEDIUM RANGE
TIME PERIOD. FROM OTHER SENSIBLE WEATHER PERSPECTIVES THE
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS A SLIGHT EDGE OVER ITS GFS COUNTERPART.
STARTING FROM A BLENDED MEDIUM RANGE MODEL INITIALIZATION...UTILIZED
A VARIABLE WEIGHTING OF THE GFS/NAM/GEM/ECMWF...DEPENDING ON THE
WEATHER ELEMENT IN QUESTION.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD STARTS (ON SATURDAY) WITH THE MEAN
RIDGE AXIS DOMINATING THE AREA...SUPPRESSING ANY CONVECTION
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE CENTERS ROTATING
NORTHEAST FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC COAST INTERACT WITHE
SEMIPERMANENT LOW WOBBLING ALONG ACROSS THE CANADIAN PROVINCES OF
MANITOBA AND ONTARIO. AS THESE LOWS ARE PHASED INTO THE MEAN WEST-
NORTHWEST BAROCLINIC ZONE BETWEEN THE CANADIAN LOW AND THE SOUTHER
U.S. RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...RAINFALL CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED GENERATE A NORTH TO SOUTH GRADIENT OF POPS/WEATHER
(HIGHEST NORTH NEAR INTERSTATE 64) DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT 50/50 ON THE RANGE OF POPS/WEATHER...MAINLY DUE
THE UNCERTAINTY ON ANY MESOSCALE PERTURBATIONS IN THE SAME
FLOW...WHICH CAN ENHANCE/DIMINISH POPS FROM ONE PERIOD TO ANOTHER.
THE RIDGE DOES NOT MOVE INTO THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY...WHEN
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 80S DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1158 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MVFR/IFR EARLY...ESPECIALLY
IN SHRA/TSRA. MAY SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT KCGI/KPAH BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AOB 6 KNOTS WILL
VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AOB 10 KNOTS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR ILZ076>078-082-
083-086-087-089>094.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ILZ075-080-081-084-
085-088.
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR MOZ108>112-114.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR MOZ076-086-087-100-
107.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR INZ081-082-
085>088.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR KYZ001>022.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...SMITH
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WAKEFIELD VA
216 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA OVERNIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK
NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING EAST ALONG IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SLOWLY RETURNS OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
QUIET WX THIS EVE ACRS FA W/ WK SFC HI PRES INVOF THE RGN.
WATCHING AREA OF CONVECTION SPREADING SLOLY ENE THROUGH SW VA/NW
NC. CURRENT FCST APRS IN GOOD SHAPE ATTM...W/ POPS INCRS TO SLGT
CHC-CHC ACRS MNLY HALF OF THE FA OVRNGT. ADDED ISOLD TSTMS UNTIL
ABT 08-09Z. 23Z/05 RUC GENLY WEAKENS AREA OF CONVECTION AS IT
SPREAD TWD/INTO THE FA. HOLDING ONTO SLGT CHC-CHC POPS LT.
OTRW...PARTLY CLOUDY N...INCRSG CLDNS S...W/ LO TEMPS FM THE
U60S/ARND 70F N TO THE M/U70S FAR SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N INTO THE AKQ CWA THURSDAY. THE LOW-LEVEL
THETA-E GRADIENT ACTUALLY SHARPENS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS N OF
THE REGION. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 12Z
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS DUE TO THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE ONSET OF THE EVENT. LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED ACROSS WRN/CENTRAL PORTIONS...AND LIKELIES HAVE BEEN
ADDED TO NE NC/SE VA...AS MODELS SUGGEST AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF ERN NC AND SE VA. OVERALL THE PRIMARY
THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THERE DOES APPEAR
TO BE A CORRIDOR FROM NE NC INTO SE VA WHERE A BELT OF STRONGER
(30-35KT) 0-6KM BULK SHEAR INTERACTS WITH STRONGER
INSTABILITY...WHICH COULD PRODUCE A LOCALIZED SEVERE THREAT.
FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NE...TO AROUND 90 SE.
LIKELY POPS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS ALONG THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM...AND ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PW
VALUES WILL SUPPORT QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY. HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE HWO. LOWS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWS 70S.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FRIDAY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAST THE
SYSTEM PULLS OFFSHORE. THE 12Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A REASONABLE
COMPROMISE OF THE QUICKER NAM AND SLOWER ECMWF. LIKELY POPS WILL
BE MAINTAINED GIVEN THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE OVERALL
PATTERN...ALTHOUGH PCPN COULD TAPER OFF FROM THE W DURING THE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL NE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN PERSISTENT
CLOUD COVER AND BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 70S NW...TO THE LOW 80S
SE.
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE N FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BY SATURDAY...THE SKY SHOULD BECOME PARTLY SUNNY W...AND
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY ALONG THE COAST WITH A 20-30% POP. LOWS RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW
80S SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT NIGHT...PULLING CLOUDS AND PRECIP OUT TO SEA WITH IT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE AREA SUN AND MON WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL
DYNAMIC FORCING ON MONDAY. INCREASING POPS MONDAY THROUGH WED AS
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ON TUE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
HELPING TO INITIATE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. FAIRLY GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE UPPER WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP POSSIBLE.
MODELS DEPICT AN OMEGA LIKE BLOCK FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...KEEPING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL HELP
MAINTAIN CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPS UPPER 80S MON AND TUES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WED MODERATING INTO
THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LATEST REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LIFTING ALONG A QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NEWD INTO CENTRAL VA...IMPACTING KRIC DURING THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO DEVELOPING OVER THE MD ERN SHORE. WILL
MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST FOR KSBY...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS AOA 20K FT
AGL AND WINDS AOB 10 KT. WARM DEWPOINTS AND ONLY HIGH CLOUDS OVER
NE NC WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG THIS MORNING.
HAVE INCLUDED IFR VISIBILITIES FOR KECG EARLY THIS MORNING.
FOR TODAY...LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER
ERN NC AS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL LOWER TO BKN-OVC SKIES WITH
DECKS 4-6K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON. A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIP
EXPECTED THIS MORNING...BEFORE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD IN
FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE EVENING...BEYOND THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS/HEAVIEST SHOWERS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST TONIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE REORGANIZES OVER THE CAROLINAS. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW SLOWLY PUSHES OFF THE NC
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE
RESULT WILL BE ONSHORE FLOW THURS AOB 15 KT. GRADIENT STRENGTHENS
THURS NIGHT AS THE LOW DEEPENS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN NC.
MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW
PLACEMENT AND RESULTANT FRONTAL LOCATION. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE FOR STRONG SCA CONDITIONS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY DUE TO
STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NE FLOW. SEAS
RESPOND...BUILDING TO 4 T0 6+ FT FRI NIGHT THOUGH SAT. LOW PROGGED
TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE COAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...ALLOWING THE
GRADIENT TO RELAX AND WINDS/SEAS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/ALB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/ALB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/LKB
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...SAM
MARINE...MAS/DAP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
438 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA.
COUPLE OF MAIN SHORTWAVES ARE UPSTREAM OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD
WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND IS GENERATING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY
IN THE MID LEVELS IS SUPPORTING ARC OF LGT SHRA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON HRRR AND RAP AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...COULD SEE ISOLD SHR OR SPRINKLES CLIP TIP OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN EFFECT FM THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BE A LOT OF MID CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN CWA MOST OF TODAY.
SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 5-10KFT BKN CIGS
UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TODAY. SOUTHERN CWA
SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS SO WENT WARMEST
THERE WITH MID 70S NEAR WI BORDER. COOLEST READINGS IN THE UPR 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ATTN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY AND SD. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND ARRIVES OVER CNTRL MN AND
WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. BULK OF STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
STAYS OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE...BUT AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH
THE WAVE MOVES OVER MN...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85 ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT 300-305K /H9-H7/ SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS RAMP UP TO HIGHER
CHANCE AT KIWD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS
ISHPEMING AND IRON MOUNTAIN. MUCAPE IN LOWEST 3KM OR APPROX SFC-H7
STAYS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CWA. ISOLD TSRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST
AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MAY COULD ADVECT SMALL PORTION OF INSTABILITY
INTO CWA...BUT WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MIN
TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN LAST COUPLE NIGHTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
MN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH ANOTHER
ENTERING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE OTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND AFFECTS
THE AREA ON SAT. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH ON FRI AND BOTH MOVE OUT SAT AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS FOR HOW THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS GOING TO PLAY OUT.
ECMWF IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT PCPN. GFS IS QUICKER MOVING
PCPN THROUGH. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEMED TO
KEEP SOME CONTINUITY TO THE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN PCPN FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER
WAVE COMES IN AND TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING...THEN HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS
EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS SHORTWAVE
HEADS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MON AND PUSHES IT BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON TUE WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ERN U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED.
SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND REMAINS INTO
WED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...WENT DRY FOR
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AND REMOVED POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
VFR CEILING AND VIS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DIURNAL
WINDS AND AFTERNOON LAKE BREEZES OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. THERE IS A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG OVER THE INTERIOR W HALF OF UPPER MI
BUT NOT EXPECTING IT TO IMPACT TAF SITES.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 847 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LATEST HRRR RUNS INDICATE A SLOWER ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 12Z. DRY AIR FROM HIGH
PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL WIN OUT OVER THE RAIN AND
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 657 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INCLUDING THE NMM/ARW DELAY THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AFTER 09Z. HAVE MADE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT TREND. REFLECTIVITY SHOWING UP ON
KDLH 88D ATTM ARE CLOUDS WITH A MINIMUM 12K FT BASE. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
A WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO CANADA...AND A VORT MAX/H85 LOW
TRANSLATES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN MANITOBA...REACHING
THE NW CORNER OF MN BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
THE VORT MAX THEN DIMINISHES/STALLS OVER NW MINNESOTA MONDAY MORNING
WHILE BECOMING ABSORBED BY ANOTHER FAST APPROACHING WAVE IN THE
DAKOTAS. THIS RAPIDLY DEEPENING WAVE...IN A REGION OF STRONG UPPER
LVL DIVERGENCE...BECOMES A CLOSED LOW AND PUSHES INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE POSITIONED IN
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
THE LOW THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PWATS INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES
THURSDAY WHILE DEW POINTS SURGE INTO THE 60S OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MN. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO LOW-END SEVERE
THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN WHERE THE LATEST NAM IS
SHOWING AROUND 2000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER..THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORMS THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE
PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE OVERALL PATTERN IS CONCERN
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE 60S... SOLID WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A GENERAL LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. HOWEVER
MODELS DIVERGE ON THE EVENTUAL PATH OF THE LOW AND WHERE THE BULLS-
EYE OF THE QPF WILL BE. 12Z NAM12 HAS THE LOW TAKING A NOSE DIVE TO
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA WITH A LINE OF PRECIP BREAKING APART
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... THE GFS40 STALLING BUT ALSO MARCHING THROUGH
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA... AND THE ECMWF STICKING TO A MORE NORTHERN
SOLUTION ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
OVERALL DELAYED THE ONSET OF INITIAL FRIDAY PRECIP ALONG THE WARM
FRONT IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. EXPECT ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
SECOND BOUNDARY... BUT QPF WILL LIKELY BE HIGHEST ON FRIDAY.
DEWPOINTS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE MORE COMFORTABLE 50S FOR MOST OF
THE CWA BY MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST... THOUGH EXPECT THE SUMMER WARMTH TO REMAIN... WITH
MID TO UPPER 70 HIGHS IN THE FORECAST NEXT WORK WEEK. AFTER A
SHORTWAVE BRINGS A SHOT OF SHOWERS ACROSS OUR SOUTH MONDAY... THE
REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO SUNNY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
MAINLY VFR CIGS/VSBYS FOR THIS TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SUNRISE WHERE MVFR VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AT HYR/BRD IF SKIES
REMAIN CLEAR. APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY/EARLY
TONIGHT. A FEW STRAY SHOWERS MAY ARRIVE AT BRD EARLIER THAN OTHER
SITES. OPTED FOR VCSH/VCTS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING PREVAILING CONDITIONS WAS TOO LOW THIS MORNING. WHEN
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER TERMINALS...EXPECT TEMPORARY VSBYS
REDUCTIONS INTO MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES FOR A PERIOD. AGAIN...TIMING
CONCERNS DIDN`T WARRANT INCLUSION AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR LOWER
VIS...WILL LET LATER UPDATES HANDLE TIMING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY TOMORROW EVENING WITH RAIN SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 71 60 78 / 60 50 30 20
INL 59 72 56 78 / 50 40 30 40
BRD 62 77 59 80 / 80 50 10 30
HYR 62 73 57 80 / 60 60 30 20
ASX 60 74 57 78 / 40 60 30 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1130 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND AS A RESULT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
CLEARING THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY CLEARING THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARING
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WOULD OTHERWISE KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE EC. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM. GIVEN ALL
THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA UNTIL 00Z. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COULD
BE REALIZED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SECOND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.
DESPITE FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...LAPSE RATES REALLY SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO MORE THAN ~500J/KG OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT PRODUCTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE HWO. LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
RESPECTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GUIDANCE RESPONDS
BY PROVIDING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES MORE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~40KTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GIVEN ALL THIS...FELT
IT PRUDENT TO AT LEAST GO WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE
HWO.
FINALLY...A CONTINUED WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS 06-14Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA AND AS A
RESULT...POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
AND/OR SEVERE CONVECTION CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO TRY AND PIN DOWN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. MVFR VSBY
POSSIBLE FOR A SHORT TIME PRIOR TO AND AFTER SUNRISE...OTHERWISE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PREDOMINATE. SOUTH WINDS INCREASING AFTER
17Z AT KOFK WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. WINDS DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER 00Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...FOBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1255 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER CONTINUED IN
THE MCINTOSH/DICKEY COUNTY AREA...LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM
THE ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.
MEANWHILE THE WESTERN SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
IMPULSES WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST FROM MONTANA/WYOMING
AND MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING. ADJUSTED PRECIP CHANCES
ACCORDING TO CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE
HRRR MODEL RUN.
OTHERWISE OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 921 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER.
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
10 PM CDT. UPDATED POPS FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING. THIS WILL LIFT INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST TRENDING OK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN IDAHO. THIS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE. MAIN UPDATES TO FORECAST WERE CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
TIMING OF POPS WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM
FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85. 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN LINE WITH THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND FOCUSING CENTRAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PWATS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH TALL...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTING
SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. AREAS
THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE LONGEST IS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00 UTC GEFS QPF MODEL CLIMATE IN
THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILES FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
HAS BEEN NOTED AS A FLASH FLOOD SIGNAL IN PREVIOUS EVENTS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE RECENT
WEEKS...POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MAY STILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING EVEN WITH DRY SOILS. FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...INCLUDING MANDAN...BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT/06-12 FRIDAY AS LIKELY POPS DWINDLE AND THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY DRAGGING TWO SURFACE COLD FRONTS THROUGH...ONE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. HOWEVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT-80KT JET STREAK SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ATOP OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER OR
NEAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET. ALTHOUGH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG/NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY FOR
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND INCREASE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE BORDER SUNDAY. THEREAFTER A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH A TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE WEST FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK OR SIGNS OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST A BIT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
MAIN HAZARDS TO AVIATION WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE THUNDERSTORM VCNTY. AT MIDNIGHT CDT...A
WARM FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
HIGHWAY 83. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE BORDER OF MONTANA AND
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AND...WITH
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WILL BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY. CONDITIONS MAY
BECOME MVFR TO IFR IN THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS KMOT AFT 01Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
526 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z.
HIGH-TO-MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MID DAY IN
ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY. SFC
HIGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PW AIR WILL
KEEP DRY WX INTACT THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 HEIGHT
FALL CENTER AND SFC REFLECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FROM KY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DISTRIBUTIONS/WARM SEASON OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC WAVE. FOR THIS REASON STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH WPC QPF...WHICH LEANED
TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS. THE FINAL NDFD FCST WILL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ZONES FROM THE PA TURNPIKE
SWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SSEO ARE
STRADDLING THE PA/MD LINE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU 18-21Z TIME
FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE NRN EDGE OF
THE RAIN AND MODELS MAY BE TOO BULLISH ON WAA/OVERRUNNING
COMPONENT IN LIEU OF CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MAKE N-S ADJUSTMENTS IN P0PS/QPF AS THE PCPN PATTERN
EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. POPS WILL TREND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH M/CLR SKIES/PATCHY FOG OVER THE NW MTNS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHRA MAY AFFECT THE SE COUNTIES INTO PART OF
FRIDAY...AS SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST NR THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LINGER. ACROSS NORTHERN PA...A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY EXPECTED. GEFS
MEAN 925/850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. WILL PAINT A SLIGHT CHC OF PM
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING N
PERIPHERY OF MISS VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SOME TIMING DIFFS HAVE ARISEN WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GEFS/ECENS AND OPER CANADIAN...ALL
OF WHICH INDICATE A FROPA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUE...AS OPPOSED TO
THE OPER ECMWF...WHICH IS 12-24HRS SLOWER AND IMPLIES A DRY
MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA MON PM...AS HGTS FALL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF AND A SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS WORK INTO
THE REGION ON SW FLOW. DEEPENING TROUGH AND SLOWING COLD FRONT
WILL LKLY RESULT IN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO TUESDAY. GEFS AND EC
BOTH CURRENTLY INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN PA ASSOC WITH THIS SLOWING FRONT. COOLER/DRIER WX IS
LIKELY BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF/COOL MID LVL TEMPS OVR THE
REGION COULD PROMOTE PM SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLR SKIES WITH HIGH CI INCR FROM W TO E. IFR FOG PSBL AT BFD BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED IFR IS LOW THEREFORE CUT BACK TO TEMPO
3SM BR SCT001.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL MOVE INTO THE AIRSPACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW. THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN/SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE KEPT CIGS AOA 050.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. FOG/VFR.
MON...VFR WITH CHC OF TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
419 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER WILL DISSIPATE AROUND 12Z.
HIGH-TO-MID CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MID DAY IN
ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY. SFC
HIGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PW AIR WILL
KEEP DRY WX INTACT THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 HEIGHT
FALL CENTER AND SFC REFLECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FROM KY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DISTRIBUTIONS/WARM SEASON OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC WAVE. FOR THIS REASON STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH WPC QPF...WHICH LEANED
TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS. THE FINAL NDFD FCST WILL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ZONES FROM THE PA TURNPIKE
SWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SSEO ARE
STRADDLING THE PA/MD LINE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU 18-21Z TIME
FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE NRN EDGE OF
THE RAIN AND MODELS MAY BE TOO BULLISH ON WAA/OVERRUNNING
COMPONENT IN LIEU OF CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MAKE N-S ADJUSTMENTS IN P0PS/QPF AS THE PCPN PATTERN
EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. POPS WILL TREND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH M/CLR SKIES/PATCHY FOG OVER THE NW MTNS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SEVERAL SUCCESSIVE LOWS MOVING THROUGH CANADA WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MID TO LONG TERM. MINOR DIFFERENCES
REMAIN REGARDING EXACT TRACK OF SFC LOW PASSING SOUTH OF PA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN TIER
COUNTIES WILL BE ON NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE PRECIP..SO WILL
MENTION CHC/SCHC OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE
THRU FRIDAY AM. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...ODDS NOW APPEAR TO FAVOR FAIR
AND SEASONABLE WX THIS WEEKEND...AS CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION
OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS
VALLEY. GEFS TEMP PLUMES INDICATE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS HGTS RISE ACROSS PA.
MED RANGE GUIDANCE EXHIBITING RELATIVELY LITTLE SPREAD WITH MASS
FIELDS INTO NEXT WEEK...LENDING CONFIDENCE IN A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA ARND NEXT TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLR SKIES WITH HIGH CI INCR FROM W TO E. IFR FOG PSBL AT BFD BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED IFR IS LOW THEREFORE CUT BACK TO TEMPO
3SM BR SCT001.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL MOVE INTO THE AIRSPACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW. THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN/SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE KEPT CIGS AOA 050.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. FOG/VFR.
MON...VFR WITH CHC OF TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1120 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 821 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
00Z KUNR SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT SUPPORT FOR WIND...WHICH DID OCCUR
WITH CONVECTION WEST OF RAPID CITY. WATER VAPOUR SHOWED
RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVE PLOWING NORTHEAST FROM WY INTO THE DAKOTAS.
SECONDARY WAVE NOTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WY...WHICH THE 00Z GUIDANCE
PICKS UP ON AND MOVES NORTHEAST INTO ND OVERNIGHT. TAIL END OF
WAVE MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING BEHIND INITIAL WAVE WHICH IS MOVING ONTO THE SD
PLAINS. STRENGTH OF MUCAPE SLOWLY WANES OVERNIGHT. FORECAST
TWEAKED FOR TIMING...BUT LARGELY IN GOOD SHAPE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AS UPPER LOW
CIRCULATES OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH JUST
SOME CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE CWA. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS...TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE OF
FRONTOGENESIS/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND EXPAND
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INITIAL WAVE WITH BEST FORCING
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BRINGING A BAND OF STORMS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. HRRR THIS
MORNING WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWEST SD EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LATER RUNS
ARE SHOWING A MORE SCATTERED FORM. MLCAPE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AROUND
750 J/KG ON THE PLAINS WITH 1500 J/KG OVER THE HILLS...BUT SHEAR
IS 35-45 KTS SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SD THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS AND ALSO BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHWESTERN SD.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SD
DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE WAVE FINALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OUT OF
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK FOR SAT-SUN. HOWEVER...STRONG
INDICATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIG LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE SAT-SUN PERIOD AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA
EJECTS NE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MONSOON MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TS IN THIS PERIOD ESP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
TS OVER THE BLACK HILLS TUES WHEN BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE
SAT/SUN WITH INCREASING FLOW SUPPORTING DECENT BULK SHEAR /0-6KM/
NUMBERS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...WITH 1-2 KJ/KG OF CAPE OVER THE SE FA.
HOWEVER...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER SYSTEM TRACK/SPEED TO ASCERTAIN
A BETTER GRASP ON SEVERE PROBS.
AFTER A SEASONAL DAY FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN EXPECTED SUNDAY.. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER ON TRACK FOR TUE AND BEYOND WITH 90S EXPECTED. A FEW 100/S A
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SCATTERED TSRA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...CLEARING OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON THE PLAINS
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TOMORROW. LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH
THE STORMS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WILL PREVAIL.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HELGESON
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...HELGESON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SURFACE WARMING WITH
HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR MAYBE TWO WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND
SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF SUMMER SO FAR. SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
ELEVATED THOUGH WILL TREND DOWNWARDS DURING THE PEAK MIXING
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL ALSO LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOMEWHAT. WE REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN IF MODELS ARE CORRECTLY
FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES...AND IF UNDERPLAYED BY ONLY 2
OR 3 DEGREES MAY REQUIRE CONSIDERATION OF A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA. BUT FOR NOW WE SIDE WITH THE BULK OF
OUR GUIDANCE WHICH COMES UP JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...CAPPING STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL AND ACTUALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING PEAK DEEP MIXING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA. A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL DRAG ANOTHER BATCH OF LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO WILL PROVIDE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN OUR NORTHWEST. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS OF RAP AND HRRR HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INSISTENT TONIGHT ON
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LESS COVERAGE
THAN EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES APPEAR MOSTLY UNDER
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM LATER TODAY SO STORMS MAY HAVE A LITTLE
LESS OOMPH AS WELL. EVEN SO...WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN OUR
NORTHWEST CORNER. ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN
.LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN HOT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS NUDGED EAST AHEAD OF
A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ON THE
CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE RESIDE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104-105 DEGREES.
LATE SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING IN TERMS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE...AT THIS TIME ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
ATTEMPT TO BEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. WHETHER
THIS ENHANCED MID-UPPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH AS LATER SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE TIME AT WHICH THIS FEATURE BEGINS RETROGRADING WESTWARD.
BELIEVE ENOUGH CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SHOWN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS PARMER COUNTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SAID UNCERTAINTIES GOING FORWARD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO BUILD WEST AND
NORTHWEST WHILE AMPLIFYING...THUS SHIFTING THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
90S LOCALLY. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LOOKS TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NWP NOW SUGGESTING THAT A PERIOD OF CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY THEREFORE BE IN THE OFFING FOR A PERIOD NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH.
HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW AFTER SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILED SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND EXTENT/AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULTS IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES INDEED PLAY OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 99 69 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 99 70 98 69 / 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 100 71 98 70 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 101 71 99 70 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 74 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 102 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 101 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 104 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 103 75 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 106 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
05/31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
940 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY...EARLY MORNING BUOY REPORTS AT 41009 AND 41010 SHOWED
SOUTHWEST WINDS WHILE SPGF1 REPORTED A SOUTHEAST WIND. THIS DEPICTS
A NARROW SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THE RIDGE WILL
NUDGE SOUTH THOUGH AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SAGS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. THE RESULTANT SOUTHWEST FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA
BREEZE EXCEPT NORTH OF THE CAPE.
MORNING SOUNDINGS INDICATED RATHER AVERAGE LOOKING LAPSE RATES FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH 500 MB TEMPS AROUND MINUS 6 DEGREES
CELSIUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS 1.8 TO 1.9 INCHES ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT MIAMI AND KEY WEST SHOWED A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
NEAR 850MB WITH DRYING ABOVE. THE LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES THERE HAVE
NOTED THIS DRY LAYER IS DUE TO AN INTRUSION OF SAHARAN AIR.
GPS PRECIPITABLE WATER DATA SUGGESTS THAT SOME OF THIS DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIR COULD AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND THE RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONFIRM A DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT VRB SOUTHWARD.
WITH THIS IN MIND AND ALSO THAT THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHADOW WILL
SHIFT CLOCKWISE TO AFFECT THE TREASURE COAST TODAY...WILL PLAN ON
TWEAKING POPS DOWN A LITTLE OVER THE SOUTH COAST. INTERESTINGLY...
THE 12Z LOCAL WRF AND HRRR MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE NORTH OKEECHOBEE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE INITIAL FOCUS FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH ST LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES MUCH LESS ACTIVE. THE MESOSCALE
MODELS DO NOT GENERATE VERY MUCH CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO
THE 40 PERCENT POPS THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THIS MORNING (WITH A LITTLE HAZE ALOFT NOTED AT
SOUTHERN TERMINALS AROUND KSUA). MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE COVERAGE
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON STORMS. THE RIDGE AXIS POSITION SHIFTING
SOUTH OF OKEECHOBEE WILL PLACE MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A
MORE FAVORED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE. BUT PRESENTLY...THE LIMITED
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC...SUGGESTS THAT COVERAGE
WILL BE SCATTERED. THIS LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE RATHER AVERAGE
LOOKING LAPSE RATES (THAT ARE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR) AND
THE FACT THAT MOISTURE...WHILE RUNNING A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST AREAS...IS NOT "SOUPY" BY ANY MEANS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD NUDGE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BUT
PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOKS TO ONLY SUPPORT 10 KNOT SOUTHWEST WINDS...
WHICH WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR A SEA BREEZE FROM ABOUT THE CAPE
SOUTHWARD. THE MAIN MARINER CONCERN WILL BE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE MAINLAND THAT PUSH ACROSS THE COAST AS STEERING
LEVEL WINDS HAVE INCREASED.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LASCODY
IMPACT WX....SEDLOCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
922 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
...UPDATE TO SYNOPSIS...
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 920 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
WV Imagery and 12Z upper air analysis indicate a weak upper level
ridge of high pressure situated across the Desert Southwest.
Meanwhile, an upper level trough of low pressure is moving
eastward across the Northern Rockies. Near the surface, a near
stationary frontal boundary extends east from the Texas panhandle
into western Oklahoma.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A weak shortwave trough was approaching the northern plains today.
Surface troughing will develop ahead of this feature across the
northern plains. A plume of warm air at 700mb will be shunted
eastward across the plains. Meanwhile, a weak surface low,
partially thermal in nature, will develop over the Oklahoma Panhandle.
A warm front will extend eastward from this low near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border. Low level upslope flow north of this front
will result in very humid conditions today except for the extreme
southwest corner where veered surface winds will allow the lower
levels to dry out. Temperatures will be held down by the moist
upslope flow across most of southwest Kansas, with highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s. However, temperatures may exceed 100F in
Elkhart. There is a very small chance of an isolated thunderstorm
near a weak wind shift line from Hugoton northward to Scott City
as surface based CAPE values may exceed 4000 j/kg. However, given
the strong capping ahead of the surface trough, any storm that
attempts to develop out in far western Kansas would quickly move
into a strongly capped environment given a 30 mph storm motion to
the southeast. Bottom line is that thunderstorms probably will not
develop. Temperatures may reach close to heat advisory criteria
near the Oklahoma state line this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A minor shortwave trough will pass across the central plains on
Friday as the aforementioned surface front edges northward into
northern Kansas. Thunderstorms are possible across western Kansas
in the late afternoon and evening but could stay north of
Interstate 70. Another minor shortwave trough will approach
western Kansas late Saturday with additional small chances for
thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. High temperatures
ought to warm into the mid to upper 90s Friday and Saturday in the
warm sector, particularly from Garden City and Dodge City
southward to the Oklahoma state line Saturday and across
all of western Kansas on Sunday. A shortwave trough traversing
the northern plains on Sunday will push a cold front into western
Kansas late in the day. There is a chance of thunderstorms along
this front. Cooler weather can be expected Monday and Tuesday in
the wake of the front, but there is still a small chance of
thunderstorms on the cool but moist side of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
Latest satellite and surface observations indicating IFR/LIFR
stratus increasing across western Kansas early this morning. The
latest RAP and HRRR also appears to have a decent handle with this
stratus based on 11z Thursday verification. will therefore follow
the general trend of the HRRR and RAP and begin the 12z tafs with
IFR/LIFR conditions at DDC, GCK, and HYS. This stratus to linger
through 15z and then begin to dissipate. VFR conditions are
expected at all three taf sites by 18z. The winds will be
southeasterly at 10 knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 70 97 72 / 0 0 0 10
GCK 92 68 97 71 / 10 0 0 20
EHA 101 68 100 71 / 0 0 0 20
LBL 100 70 98 73 / 0 0 0 10
HYS 91 68 95 71 / 0 0 0 30
P28 93 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JJohnson
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
604 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
...Updated aviation discussion...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A weak shortwave trough was approaching the northern plains today.
Surface troughing will develop ahead of this feature across the
northern plains. A plume of warm air at 700mb will be shunted
eastward across the plains. Meanwhile, a weak surface low,
partially thermal in nature, will develop over the Oklahoma Panhandle.
A warm front will extend eastward from this low near the
Oklahoma/Kansas border. Low level upslope flow north of this front
will result in very humid conditions today except for the extreme
southwest corner where veered surface winds will allow the lower
levels to dry out. Temperatures will be held down by the moist
upslope flow across most of southwest Kansas, with highs in the
upper 80s to mid 90s. However, temperatures may exceed 100F in
Elkhart. There is a very small chance of an isolated thunderstorm
near a weak wind shift line from Hugoton northward to Scott City
as surface based CAPE values may exceed 4000 j/kg. However, given
the strong capping ahead of the surface trough, any storm that
attempts to develop out in far western Kansas would quickly move
into a strongly capped environment given a 30 mph storm motion to
the southeast. Bottom line is that thunderstorms probably will not
develop. Temperatures may reach close to heat advisory criteria
near the Oklahoma state line this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday THROUGH Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A minor shortwave trough will pass across the central plains on
Friday as the aforementioned surface front edges northward into
northern Kansas. Thunderstorms are possible across western Kansas
in the late afternoon and evening but could stay north of
Interstate 70. Another minor shortwave trough will approach
western Kansas late Saturday with additional small chances for
thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening. High temperatures
ought to warm into the mid to upper 90s Friday and Saturday in the
warm sector, particularly from Garden City and Dodge City
southward to the Oklahoma state line Saturday and across
all of western Kansas on Sunday. A shortwave trough traversing
the northern plains on Sunday will push a cold front into western
Kansas late in the day. There is a chance of thunderstorms along
this front. Cooler weather can be expected Monday and Tuesday in
the wake of the front, but there is still a small chance of
thunderstorms on the cool but moist side of the front.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Friday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
Latest satellite and surface observations indicating IFR/LIFR
stratus increasing across western Kansas early this morning. The
latest RAP and HRRR also appears to have a decent handle with this
stratus based on 11z Thursday verification. will therefore follow
the general trend of the HRRR and RAP and begin the 12z tafs with
IFR/LIFR conditions at DDC, GCK, and HYS. This stratus to linger
through 15z and then begin to dissipate. VFR conditions are
expected at all three taf sites by 18z. The winds will be
southeasterly at 10 knots or less.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 92 70 96 72 / 0 0 10 10
GCK 92 69 96 71 / 10 10 10 20
EHA 101 69 99 71 / 0 10 20 20
LBL 100 70 97 73 / 0 0 10 10
HYS 91 68 94 71 / 0 10 10 30
P28 93 73 97 75 / 0 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Finch
LONG TERM...Finch
AVIATION...Burgert
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
649 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA.
COUPLE OF MAIN SHORTWAVES ARE UPSTREAM OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD
WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND IS GENERATING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY
IN THE MID LEVELS IS SUPPORTING ARC OF LGT SHRA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON HRRR AND RAP AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...COULD SEE ISOLD SHR OR SPRINKLES CLIP TIP OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN EFFECT FM THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BE A LOT OF MID CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN CWA MOST OF TODAY.
SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 5-10KFT BKN CIGS
UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TODAY. SOUTHERN CWA
SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS SO WENT WARMEST
THERE WITH MID 70S NEAR WI BORDER. COOLEST READINGS IN THE UPR 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ATTN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY AND SD. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND ARRIVES OVER CNTRL MN AND
WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. BULK OF STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
STAYS OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE...BUT AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH
THE WAVE MOVES OVER MN...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85 ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT 300-305K /H9-H7/ SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS RAMP UP TO HIGHER
CHANCE AT KIWD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS
ISHPEMING AND IRON MOUNTAIN. MUCAPE IN LOWEST 3KM OR APPROX SFC-H7
STAYS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CWA. ISOLD TSRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST
AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MAY COULD ADVECT SMALL PORTION OF INSTABILITY
INTO CWA...BUT WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MIN
TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN LAST COUPLE NIGHTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
MN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH ANOTHER
ENTERING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE OTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND AFFECTS
THE AREA ON SAT. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH ON FRI AND BOTH MOVE OUT SAT AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS FOR HOW THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS GOING TO PLAY OUT.
ECMWF IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT PCPN. GFS IS QUICKER MOVING
PCPN THROUGH. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEMED TO
KEEP SOME CONTINUITY TO THE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN PCPN FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER
WAVE COMES IN AND TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING...THEN HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS
EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS SHORTWAVE
HEADS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MON AND PUSHES IT BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON TUE WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ERN U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED.
SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND REMAINS INTO
WED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...WENT DRY FOR
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AND REMOVED POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. COULD
SEE SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY AT KIWD...BUT WEATHER SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY AT KCMX AND KSAW. THOUGH A LOT OF MID CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
INTO TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
850 AM PDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PUSH NORTH INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND FRIDAY BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOISTURE MAY BE ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...TWEAKED THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
CLOUD COVER TRENDS AND NUDGE POPS UPWARDS ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY WHERE LATEST FEW HRRR RUNS BREAK OUT SUBSTANCIAL
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A WELL
DEVELOPED INVERTED V PROFILE WHICH WOULD FAVOR LOCALLY STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS WITH ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH
DEVELOP...SO THIS WILL BE WATCHED FOR CLOSELY AS STORMS DEVELOP
LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO UPDATES
ARE PLANNED.
-OUTLER-
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOTS TO MULL OVER WITH THE SHORT TERM FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODELS
ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL PATTERN EVOLUTION
LEADING TO MODERATE-HIGH CONFIDENCE OVERALL. HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES
REMAIN IN PRECIPITATION FIELDS...LEADING TO SLIGHTLY LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY AND FRIDAY.
TODAY [THROUGH 00Z (5PM)]...TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN EXIST. THE
FIRST OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY...EASTERN SAN
BERNARDINO COUNTY AND EXTREME SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY WHERE INCREASING
DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY. BY 00Z PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 1-1.5 INCHES
ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING BEFORE 00Z AND
WEAK CAPPING I EXPECT MAINLY TERRAIN-DRIVEN STORMS OVER THIS AREA.
STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE MODEST AT 10-15 KTS TOWARDS THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST...HOWEVER TRAINING STORMS (ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN)
ARE A CONCERN WITH CORFIDI VECTORS NEAR ZERO. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND FLASH FLOODING (WHERE
STORMS TRAIN). THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE ACROSS THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE SOME MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK MUCAPE COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED CONVECTION DURING THE LATE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH DRY NEAR-SURFACE CONDITIONS I
DON`T EXPECT MUCH RAIN ACCUMULATION...HOWEVER DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
AND DRY LIGHTNING ARE A POSSIBILITY. WIDESPREAD OUTFLOW WINDS COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOWERED VISIBILITY. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF INYO COUNTY
LATER IN THE DAY.
TONIGHT [00Z (5PM) THROUGH 12Z (5AM)]...MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK VORTICITY LOBE IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTH-NORTHEAST UP THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO UTAH OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
DIFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO TOSS IN SOME ADDITIONAL
DYNAMICS INTO A WEAK-MODERATELY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT AND
LIKELY KEEP SOME FORM OF CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 1-1.5
INCH RANGE. STORM MOTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KTS
TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...AND THUS ANY FLOODING CONCERNS WILL BE
LARGELY CONFINED TO TRAINING STORMS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND HAIL WILL ALSO BECOME A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR WILL EXCEED
30-35 KTS AND COOLER SUB-CLOUD LAYERS EXIST. ADDITIONALLY...SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA AND PERHAPS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OF INYO AND ESMERALDA COUNTIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY LOW
CIRCULATION...HOWEVER WITH LIMITED MOISTURE IMPACTS SHOULD MAINLY BE
WIND-RELATED IF ANYTHING.
FRIDAY [12Z (5AM) THROUGH 06Z (11PM)]...THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BRING STIFF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS
WILL ACT TO TIGHTEN THE NORTH-SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THAT THIS
BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND ALONG THE WESTERN BORDERS OF LINCOLN AND CLARK
COUNTIES SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY BY 12Z (5AM)
FRIDAY...THEN QUICKLY PUSH EAST TO NEAR THE COLORADO RIVER BY 18Z
(11 AM) AND CENTRAL MOHAVE COUNTY BY 00Z (5PM). SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A CONCERN MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THIS
FEATURE...MEANING THAT CHANCES IN LAS VEGAS WILL END BEFORE NOON
FRIDAY. STORM MOTION WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 25-30 KTS TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AND SHEAR VALUES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED. THUS ONCE
AGAIN...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY
SOME HAIL. CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING WITH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
TRAINING STORMS. BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LATEST HIGH-RES GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE MAGNITUDE. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS AND BORDERLINE FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. INSTEAD OF REMOVING ANY HIGHLIGHTS THIS MORNING I`VE
OPTED TO KEEP THE PRODUCTS IN PLACE AND LET THE DAY SHIFT TAKE ONE
MORE LOOK AT THEM.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 24 HOURS AGO. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS WILL EXPAND WEST TOWARD NEW MEXICO WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE STRETCHES GENERALLY NORTH-SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
STARTING LATE MONDAY. THIS COMBINATION WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRACKING NORTHWARD MAINLY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY.
WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AREA
TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EDGING WEST WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE
WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAR WEST IT MAY TRACK. AS FOR TEMPERATURES,
MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE NORMAL. OTHERWISE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...TYPICAL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WIND THROUGH
MID MORNING BEFORE LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP BETWEEN 15Z AND 20Z.
WINDS WILL RETURN TO A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASE AFTER
20Z. GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 15-25 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED. MAINLY
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA AND TEMPORARILY LOWERED CIGS/VIS AND GUSTY WINDS
TO IMPACT THE AIRPORT COMPLEX AS WELL AS THE APPROACH CORRIDORS
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 00Z-18Z FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WITH GUSTS 25-30 KTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY 15-25 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEFORE 00Z...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO
THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS EVENING...THEN END RAPIDLY FROM WEST
TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 10K FEET EXCEPT NEAR SHRA/TSRA WHERE THEY
COULD LOWER TO 6-8K FEET.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WOLCOTT
LONG TERM.............PADDOCK
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1105 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MORE MOISTURE
IS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND
IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM THURSDAY...ISOLATED MORNING CONVECTION HAS ALL BUT
DIMINISHED BUT AN INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
PUMP PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. DIURNAL HEATING WILL
PUSH MLCAPE VALUES CLOSE TO 3000J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL
CAPPING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IT WAS YESTERDAY SO EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN COVERAGE FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER THERE IS MORE
MOISTURE PRESENT...AT NEARLY ALL LEVELS...WHICH HAS LESSENED THE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE SO WHILE COVERAGE OF STORMS MAY INCREASE THE AMOUNT
OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER
WET MICROBURSTS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN. LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE
PRESENT...SLOWLY GAINING STRENGTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS...ADDING TO THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.
CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL PEAK HEATING AS INITIALLY SURFACE
HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL
BE THE ONLY SOURCE OF LIFT. LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT DYNAMICAL
FORCING WILL START TO PLAY A LARGER ROLE IN MAINTAINING STORMS.
HIGHS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
STILL PROGGED TO END UP JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION FROM 630 AM THURSDAY FOLLOWS:
LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THRUOUT THIS NEAR TERM
PERIOD. THE MAIN CULPRIT AIDING THIS PCPN OUTBREAK COMES FROM A
RATHER POTENT MID- LEVEL S/W TROF THAT MOVES FROM THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK
FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH
EVENTHOUGH ITS MOVING WITHIN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS S/W TROF AS WELL AS AN INFLUX IN THE LOWER
LEVELS IE...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR POPS IN THE MODEST TO
GOOD CHANCE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING LIKELY LATE TODAY THRU
TONIGHT. SEVERE TSTORM PARAMETERS POINT TOWARDS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SPC INDICATING WET MICROBURSTS
A POSSIBILITY. THE SPC OUTLINE FOR SVR WX ONLY CLIPS OUR WESTERN
CWA BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
INCREASING FORWARD PROGRESSION AFTER CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE A SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
ENTIRE ILM CWA WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. TODAYS INSOLATION
MAY AID ANY AFTN RENEGADE CONVECTION TO STRONG OR SEVERE
LIMITS...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF. FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY COMPROMISED AMONGST THE AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S...TO AROUND 80 AT THE COAST...FOR MINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED AGAIN TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 105 THIS AFTN...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS THE DECIDING FACTOR RATHER THAN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA...NOW TAKING UNTIL EVENING TO CLEAR. EXPECT AN
ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERING OF AFTERNOON HEAT SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT QUITE A BIT
BUT UPPER LEVEL PVA REMAINS AS DOES SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST
PLACES WILL STAY RAIN-FREE WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. THE STEADIER COASTAL RAINFALL DEPICTED IN THE GFS APPEARS
OVERDONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... UPPER TROUGHINESS FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEAVING VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. SIMILARLY THE FRONT OF
THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE WASHED OUT LEAVING BEHIND A POORLY DEFINED
GRADIENT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL LINGER
JUST OFFSHORE BUT UNLESS THE SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO ADVECT ENOUGH OF
IT ONSHORE MOST PLACES WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER
INLAND ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME MID LEVEL PVA MAY GET
UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON AN IMPRESSIVE AMPLITUDE AND
DRIVE A FRONT INT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME DENSE FOG AT FLO WILL HANG AROUND FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...AND SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MAIN
PRECIP LOAD WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 11 AM THURSDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW OF 10 TO 15 KT THIS MORNING
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
CURRENTLY 2 TO 4 FT WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. AT THIS POINT DO NOT PLAN TO RAISE SCEC HEADLINE BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ISSUANCE WITH THE MIDDAY OR
AFTERNOON UPDATES.
DISCUSSION FROM 630 AM THURSDAY FOLLOWS:
MODELS INDICATE A PINCHED SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS A RESULT OF A RATHER
POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OVER THE MID- MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
MORNING...THAT MOVES ESE...REACHING THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. A
DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP/EXIST ACROSS THE VA-NC BORDER
BY LATE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SSW-WSW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT
BY LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS
WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND BUILD TO 3 TO 5
FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. MAY NEED A SCEC OR
POSSIBLY A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS PERIOD AND SUBSEQUENT
ONES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... AUGUST ISN`T REALLY THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BUT THIS SUMMER HAS LARGELY PROVEN
EXCEPTION. A FAIRLY HEALTHY BOUNDARY WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE
REGION ON FRIDAY SLATED FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. IN THE COOLER
SEASON FRONTS OFTEN RAMP WINDS AND/OR SEAS UP TO ADVISORY REALM
BUT THIS IS OFTEN TOUGHER IN THE WARM SEASON AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
WEAKER. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE WITH THIS SETUP AS BOTH REMAIN
BELOW EVEN SCEC THRESHOLDS. VEERING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ABOUT A NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ABATE IN
SPEED FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... AS THE FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM WASHES
OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE PERIOD THE LOCAL WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WHILE
STAYING CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER
COMPASS POINT MONDAY. SEAS 2 OR PERHAPS 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
635 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THRUOUT THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CULPRIT AIDING
THIS PCPN OUTBREAK COMES FROM A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
THAT MOVES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING TO
THE CAROLINAS BY DAYBREAK FRI. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EVENTHOUGH ITS MOVING WITHIN W TO NW FLOW
ALOFT. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS S/W TROF AS WELL AS AN INFLUX IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IE...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR POPS IN THE
MODEST TO GOOD CHANCE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING LIKELY LATE TODAY
THRU TONIGHT. SEVERE TSTORM PARAMETERS POINT TOWARDS DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SPC INDICATING WET MICROBURSTS
A POSSIBILITY. THE SPC OUTLINE FOR SVR WX ONLY CLIPS OUR WESTERN
CWA BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM AND ITS
INCREASING FORWARD PROGRESSION AFTER CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE A SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
ENTIRE ILM CWA WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK. TODAYS INSOLATION
MAY AID ANY AFTN RENEGADE CONVECTION TO STRONG OR SEVERE
LIMITS...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF. FOR
MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY COMPROMISED AMONGST THE AVAILABLE MODEL
MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOW TO MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO UPPER
70S...TO AROUND 80 AT THE COAST...FOR MINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
PROGGED AGAIN TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST
SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105
DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 105 THIS AFTN...WITH
SFC DEWPOINTS THE DECIDING FACTOR RATHER THAN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA...NOW TAKING UNTIL EVENING TO CLEAR. EXPECT AN
ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERING OF AFTERNOON HEAT SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT QUITE A BIT
BUT UPPER LEVEL PVA REMAINS AS DOES SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST
PLACES WILL STAY RAIN-FREE WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. THE STEADIER COASTAL RAINFALL DEPICTED IN THE GFS APPEARS
OVERDONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... UPPER TROUGHINESS FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEAVING VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. SIMILARLY THE FRONT OF
THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE WASHED OUT LEAVING BEHIND A POORLY DEFINED
GRADIENT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL LINGER
JUST OFFSHORE BUT UNLESS THE SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO ADVECT ENOUGH OF
IT ONSHORE MOST PLACES WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER
INLAND ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME MID LEVEL PVA MAY GET
UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON AN IMPRESSIVE AMPLITUDE AND
DRIVE A FRONT INT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME DENSE FOG AT FLO WILL HANG AROUND FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...AND SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MAIN
PRECIP LOAD WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A PINCHED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS A RESULT OF A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING...THAT MOVES ESE...REACHING THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. A DOUBLE BARREL SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP/EXIST
ACROSS THE VA-NC BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SSW-WSW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT BY LATE THIS AFTN AND CONTINUING THRU
TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE INCREASING WINDS AND
BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF CAPE FEAR. MAY NEED
A SCEC OR POSSIBLY A SHORT TERM SCA FOR LATE IN THIS PERIOD AND
SUBSEQUENT ONES.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... AUGUST ISN`T REALLY THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BUT THIS SUMMER HAS LARGELY PROVEN
EXCEPTION. A FAIRLY HEALTHY BOUNDARY WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE
REGION ON FRIDAY SLATED FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. IN THE COOLER
SEASON FRONTS OFTEN RAMP WINDS AND/OR SEAS UP TO ADVISORY REALM
BUT THIS IS OFTEN TOUGHER IN THE WARM SEASON AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
WEAKER. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE WITH THIS SETUP AS BOTH REMAIN
BELOW EVEN SCEC THRESHOLDS. VEERING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ABOUT A NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ABATE IN
SPEED FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... AS THE FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM WASHES
OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE PERIOD THE LOCAL WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WHILE
STAYING CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER
COMPASS POINT MONDAY. SEAS 2 OR PERHAPS 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DCH/SGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
623 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THURSDAY AS
MORE MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL. A
DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...LOOK FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION THRUOUT THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD. THE MAIN CULPRIT AIDING
THIS PCPN OUTBREAK COMES FROM A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF
THAT MOVES FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING TO THE
CAROLINAS DURING THE PRE-DAWN FRI HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH EVENTHOUGH ITS MOVING WITHIN W TO
NW FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING THIS S/W TROF AS WELL AS AN
INFLUX IN THE LOWER LEVELS IE...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. LOOK FOR
POPS IN THE MODEST TO GOOD CHANCE TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING LIKELY
LATE TODAY THRU TONIGHT. SEVERE TSTORM PARAMETERS POINT TOWARDS
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...WITH SPC INDICATING
WET MICROBURSTS A POSSIBILITY. THE SPC OUTLINE FOR SVR WX ONLY
CLIPS OUR WESTERN CWA BUT GIVEN THE DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS
SYSTEM AND ITS INCREASING FORWARD PROGRESSION AFTER CROSSING THE
APPALACHIANS...WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE A SEVERE THREAT FOR THE
ENTIRE ILM CWA WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK AND INCLUDE THE
TONIGHT PERIOD. TODAYS INSOLATION MAY AID ANY AFTN RENEGADE
CONVECTION TO STRONG OR SEVERE LIMITS...WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL S/W TROF. FOR MAX/MIN TEMPS...BASICALLY
COMPROMISED AMONGST THE AVAILABLE MODEL MOS GUIDANCE...WITH LOW TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO UPPER 70S...TO AROUND 80 AT THE
COAST...FOR MINS. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED AGAIN TO BE IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S WITH A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THIS
WILL BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
OF GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 105 DEGREES. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY
BRIEFLY TOUCH 105 THIS AFTN...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS THE DECIDING
FACTOR RATHER THAN TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... ENERGY ALOFT CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE
REGION ON FRIDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS STILL SLOW TO MAKE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE AREA...NOW TAKING UNTIL EVENING TO CLEAR. EXPECT AN
ACTIVE DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE CLOUD COVER
TEMPERING OF AFTERNOON HEAT SHOULD MITIGATE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE MID LEVELS WILL DRY OUT QUITE A BIT
BUT UPPER LEVEL PVA REMAINS AS DOES SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. MOST
PLACES WILL STAY RAIN-FREE WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE. THE STEADIER COASTAL RAINFALL DEPICTED IN THE GFS APPEARS
OVERDONE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO SEASONABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... UPPER TROUGHINESS FLATTENS OUT SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LEAVING VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. SIMILARLY THE FRONT OF
THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE WASHED OUT LEAVING BEHIND A POORLY DEFINED
GRADIENT. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE OLD FRONT MAY STILL LINGER
JUST OFFSHORE BUT UNLESS THE SEA BREEZE MANAGES TO ADVECT ENOUGH OF
IT ONSHORE MOST PLACES WILL STAY RAIN-FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS OVER
INLAND ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN SOME MID LEVEL PVA MAY GET
UNDERWAY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TAKE ON AN IMPRESSIVE AMPLITUDE AND
DRIVE A FRONT INT OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...SOME DENSE FOG AT FLO WILL HANG AROUND FOR AN HOUR OR
SO...AND SHOULD MIX OUT BY 14Z. INCREASING CLOUDS LATER TODAY AS
A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE HRRR MODEL HAS
INSTABILITY SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...LOOKS REASONABLE. THE MAIN
PRECIP LOAD WILL COME TONIGHT AS THE DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE. CONVECTION SHOULD BREAK OUT OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE
IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE A PINCHED SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT.
THIS A RESULT OF A RATHER POTENT MID-LEVEL S/W TROF OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING MOVING ESE...AND REACHING THE
CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. A DOUBLE BARREL LOW WILL DEVELOP/EXIST
ACROSS THE VA-NC BORDER BY LATE TONIGHT. LOOK FOR SSW-WSW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY LATE THIS AFTN
AND CONTINUING THRU TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL RESPOND TO THE
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FT...POSSIBLY UP TO 6 FT OFF
CAPE FEAR. WILL LIKELY POST A SCEC OR POSSIBLY A SHORT TERM SCA AT
THE NEXT UPDATE IF THE 06Z MODEL RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... AUGUST ISN`T REALLY THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGES BUT THIS SUMMER HAS LARGELY PROVEN
EXCEPTION. A FAIRLY HEALTHY BOUNDARY WILL BE BEARING DOWN ON THE
REGION ON FRIDAY SLATED FOR A FRIDAY NIGHT PASSAGE. IN THE COOLER
SEASON FRONTS OFTEN RAMP WINDS AND/OR SEAS UP TO ADVISORY REALM
BUT THIS IS OFTEN TOUGHER IN THE WARM SEASON AS THE FLOW ALOFT IS
WEAKER. THIS SHOULD BE THE CASE WITH THIS SETUP AS BOTH REMAIN
BELOW EVEN SCEC THRESHOLDS. VEERING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING ABOUT A NORTHERLY FLOW THAT WILL ABATE IN
SPEED FAIRLY RAPIDLY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM THURSDAY... AS THE FRONT FROM THE SHORT TERM WASHES
OUT FAIRLY RAPIDLY TO OUR SOUTH OVER THE PERIOD THE LOCAL WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO ONSHORE WHILE
STAYING CAPPED AT 10 KNOTS ON SUNDAY AND THEN PERHAPS ANOTHER
COMPASS POINT MONDAY. SEAS 2 OR PERHAPS 2 TO 3 FT AT MOST.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...43
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
735 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
COOL NORTHERN TIER VALLEYS ARE SOCKED IN WITH THICK FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY PAST 12Z. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MID DAY IN
ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY. SFC
HIGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PW AIR WILL
KEEP DRY WX INTACT THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 HEIGHT
FALL CENTER AND SFC REFLECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FROM KY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DISTRIBUTIONS/WARM SEASON OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC WAVE. FOR THIS REASON STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH WPC QPF...WHICH LEANED
TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS. THE FINAL NDFD FCST WILL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ZONES FROM THE PA TURNPIKE
SWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SSEO ARE
STRADDLING THE PA/MD LINE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU 18-21Z TIME
FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE NRN EDGE OF
THE RAIN AND MODELS MAY BE TOO BULLISH ON WAA/OVERRUNNING
COMPONENT IN LIEU OF CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MAKE N-S ADJUSTMENTS IN P0PS/QPF AS THE PCPN PATTERN
EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. POPS WILL TREND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH M/CLR SKIES/PATCHY FOG OVER THE NW MTNS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHRA MAY AFFECT THE SE COUNTIES INTO PART OF
FRIDAY...AS SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST NR THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LINGER. ACROSS NORTHERN PA...A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY EXPECTED. GEFS
MEAN 925/850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. WILL PAINT A SLIGHT CHC OF PM
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING N
PERIPHERY OF MISS VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SOME TIMING DIFFS HAVE ARISEN WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GEFS/ECENS AND OPER CANADIAN...ALL
OF WHICH INDICATE A FROPA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUE...AS OPPOSED TO
THE OPER ECMWF...WHICH IS 12-24HRS SLOWER AND IMPLIES A DRY
MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA MON PM...AS HGTS FALL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF AND A SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS WORK INTO
THE REGION ON SW FLOW. DEEPENING TROUGH AND SLOWING COLD FRONT
WILL LKLY RESULT IN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO TUESDAY. GEFS AND EC
BOTH CURRENTLY INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN PA ASSOC WITH THIS SLOWING FRONT. COOLER/DRIER WX IS
LIKELY BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF/COOL MID LVL TEMPS OVR THE
REGION COULD PROMOTE PM SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BRIEF VLIFR FOG/ST AT BFD HAS DISSIPATED. LOOK FOR VFR TO PREVAIL
TODAY WITH LGT/VRB WINDS AND EXPANSIVE SHIELD OF LYRD MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE AIRSPACE FROM SW TO NE THRU THE AFTERNOON.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL MOVE INTO THE AIRSPACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW.
THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN/SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN
1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW
AND THEREFORE KEPT CIGS AOA 050.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. FOG/VFR.
MON...VFR WITH CHC OF TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD/STEINBUGL
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
721 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AND MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR
THE MASON DIXON LINE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DRY OUT FOR THE MOST PART ON FRIDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...
COOL NORTHERN TIER VALLEYS ARE SOCKED IN WITH THICK FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXPECT THIS TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY PAST 12Z. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM SW TO NE THROUGH MID DAY IN
ADVANCE OF WELL DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM /FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR/ AND DEVELOPING SFC LOW OVER THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY. SFC
HIGH EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND LOW PW AIR WILL
KEEP DRY WX INTACT THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE H5 HEIGHT
FALL CENTER AND SFC REFLECTION TO THE SOUTH OF CENTRAL PA THROUGH
THE PERIOD...FROM KY EWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC. HOWEVER...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH RESPECT TO THE QPF DISTRIBUTIONS/WARM SEASON OVERRUNNING
SCENARIO TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC WAVE. FOR THIS REASON STAYED
PRETTY CLOSE TO A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH WPC QPF...WHICH LEANED
TOWARD THE HI RES MODELS. THE FINAL NDFD FCST WILL SHOW AN
INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ZONES FROM THE PA TURNPIKE
SWD TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. THE LATEST HRRR AND 00Z SSEO ARE
STRADDLING THE PA/MD LINE WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU 18-21Z TIME
FRAME. THERE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY SHARP GRADIENT TO THE NRN EDGE OF
THE RAIN AND MODELS MAY BE TOO BULLISH ON WAA/OVERRUNNING
COMPONENT IN LIEU OF CONVECTION FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. LATER SHIFTS
MAY NEED TO MAKE N-S ADJUSTMENTS IN P0PS/QPF AS THE PCPN PATTERN
EVOLVES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. POPS WILL TREND LOWER FROM NW TO SE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH M/CLR SKIES/PATCHY FOG OVER THE NW MTNS BY
FRIDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHRA MAY AFFECT THE SE COUNTIES INTO PART OF
FRIDAY...AS SFC LOW PUSHES OFF THE COAST NR THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.
MDL SOUNDINGS IMPLY PERSISTENT CLOUDINESS THRU MUCH OF FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL
LINGER. ACROSS NORTHERN PA...A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY EXPECTED. GEFS
MEAN 925/850 TEMPS SUPPORT MAX TEMPS BTWN 75-80F.
GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLE WX EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AS
CENTRAL PA WILL BE IN REGION OF LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE ON EAST SIDE
OF UPPER RIDGE OVR THE MISS VALLEY. WILL PAINT A SLIGHT CHC OF PM
SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR PASSAGE OF WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING N
PERIPHERY OF MISS VALLEY UPPER RIDGE. GEFS PLUMES INDICATE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH READINGS CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR EARLY AUGUST.
SOME TIMING DIFFS HAVE ARISEN WITH ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT EARLY
NEXT WEEK. HAVE SIDED WITH THE GEFS/ECENS AND OPER CANADIAN...ALL
OF WHICH INDICATE A FROPA LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUE...AS OPPOSED TO
THE OPER ECMWF...WHICH IS 12-24HRS SLOWER AND IMPLIES A DRY
MONDAY. HAVE INCREASED CHC OF SHRA/TSRA MON PM...AS HGTS FALL
AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROF AND A SURGE OF HIGHER PWATS WORK INTO
THE REGION ON SW FLOW. DEEPENING TROUGH AND SLOWING COLD FRONT
WILL LKLY RESULT IN LINGERING SHRA/TSRA INTO TUESDAY. GEFS AND EC
BOTH CURRENTLY INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HVY RAINFALL ACROSS
EASTERN PA ASSOC WITH THIS SLOWING FRONT. COOLER/DRIER WX IS
LIKELY BY MIDWEEK. HOWEVER...UPPER TROF/COOL MID LVL TEMPS OVR THE
REGION COULD PROMOTE PM SHOWERS...ESP OVR THE MTNS.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
M/CLR SKIES WITH HIGH CI INCR FROM W TO E. IFR FOG PSBL AT BFD BUT
CONFIDENCE IN SUSTAINED IFR IS LOW THEREFORE CUT BACK TO TEMPO
3SM BR SCT001.
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EWD FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO
THE SRN MID ATLC STATES ON FRIDAY AND OFF THE EAST COAST ON SAT.
HIGH PRESSURE/VFR WILL MOVE INTO THE AIRSPACE BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SFC LOW. THE GREATEST RISK FOR RAIN/SUB-VFR CIGS WILL BE
ACROSS THE SRN 1/3 OF THE AIRSPACE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THEREFORE KEPT CIGS AOA 050.
OUTLOOK...
SAT-SUN...PATCHY A.M. FOG/VFR.
MON...VFR WITH CHC OF TSTMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...STEINBUGL
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...STEINBUGL
LONG TERM...FITZGERALD
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
939 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
FOR MORNING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
MORNING UPDATE INCLUDES BACKING OFF POPS JUST A LITTLE BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. ALSO...REDUCED
THE COVERAGE OF THUNDER. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL
CONTINUES FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EAST OF I-65 THIS AFTERNOON.
NOT TOO CRAZY ABOUT THIS BUT WILL KEEP SOME POPS IN THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE BACKING OFF OVERNIGHT.
CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY HAMPER HIGHS TODAY. MIGHT BE A LITTLE WARM
WITH CURRENT FORECAST BUT WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE IF NEEDED.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
UNGER
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
LEANED HEAVILY ON HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF IMPACTS. -SHRA/-TSRA
TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 16Z AT CKV/BNA
AND 22Z AT CSV. VCSH AFTER THAT TIME AT AIRPORTS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
652 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION UPDATE...
LEANED HEAVILY ON HRRR MODEL FOR TIMING OF IMPACTS. -SHRA/-TSRA
TO CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS AREA AIRPORTS THROUGH 16Z AT CKV/BNA
AND 22Z AT CSV. VCSH AFTER THAT TIME AT AIRPORTS WITH MVFR/IFR
CIGS/VIS DEVELOPING THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EARLY MORNING WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONCENTRATED OVER
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE AS WELL AS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHWEST ALABAMA. FOR TODAY...IT WILL BE A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX
FORECAST SITUATION AS THE ONGOING STORMS ARE A FEW HOURS EARLY IN
ARRIVAL AND WILL IMPACT WHAT HAPPENS LATER TODAY. SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE HINTING AT REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. IF STORMS CAN GET GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...THESE WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO MAYBE
EVEN SEVERE WITH WIND GUSTS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER STORMS REDEVELOP OR NOT...CLOUD COVER AND
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY IMPACTING HIGH TEMPERATURES. AS LONG AS THE AREA DOES NOT
BREAK OUT INTO FULL ON SUNSHINE TODAY...LOW TO MID 80S SEEM
REASONABLE WITH ALL MOS GUIDANCE AGREEING WITH THIS SOLUTION TOO.
ONE CONCERN IS ACROSS NORTHWEST MIDDLE TENNESSEE WHERE CONFIDENCE
IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH THAT CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER THIS AREA
ALL DAY...SO SOMETHING TO DEFINITELY WATCH WITH THE MORNING
UPDATE.
RAIN WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING WITH MOST OF
THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH SOME RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN
KEEPING A LID ON TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THE 90 DEGREE MARK
WITH LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY THE
WEEKEND...RAIN CHANCES NOW LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE SITUATED OVER TEXAS BUILDING OVER THE AREA. IN FACT...THIS
WILL SPELL A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN HIGHS WITH LOW TO MID 90S
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS WITH LITTLE RELIEF EXPECTED.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERN FRINGES OF THIS RIDGE BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
THIS COLD FRONT IS STILL IN ALL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH VERY PLEASANT
WEATHER FOR EARLY AUGUST EXPECTED AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY LOOK TO BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S WITH MARKEDLY LOWER HUMIDITY UNDER SUNNY SKIES...NOT
A BAD SCENARIO AT ALL.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 83 69 86 68 / 100 20 10 10
CLARKSVILLE 84 67 85 67 / 70 20 10 0
CROSSVILLE 79 67 79 65 / 100 60 10 10
COLUMBIA 84 69 86 68 / 100 20 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 84 69 87 69 / 90 20 10 10
WAVERLY 84 67 85 69 / 80 20 10 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
659 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND FURTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT LEADING TO HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT POSSIBLY NEAR KPVW. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
TOO SPARSE FOR INCLUSION WITHIN THE KPVW TAF FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SURFACE WARMING WITH
HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR MAYBE TWO WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND
SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF SUMMER SO FAR. SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
ELEVATED THOUGH WILL TREND DOWNWARDS DURING THE PEAK MIXING
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL ALSO LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOMEWHAT. WE REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN IF MODELS ARE CORRECTLY
FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES...AND IF UNDERPLAYED BY ONLY 2
OR 3 DEGREES MAY REQUIRE CONSIDERATION OF A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA. BUT FOR NOW WE SIDE WITH THE BULK OF
OUR GUIDANCE WHICH COMES UP JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...CAPPING STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL AND ACTUALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING PEAK DEEP MIXING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA. A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL DRAG ANOTHER BATCH OF LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO WILL PROVIDE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN OUR NORTHWEST. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS OF RAP AND HRRR HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INSISTENT TONIGHT ON
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LESS COVERAGE
THAN EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES APPEAR MOSTLY UNDER
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM LATER TODAY SO STORMS MAY HAVE A LITTLE
LESS OOMPH AS WELL. EVEN SO...WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN OUR
NORTHWEST CORNER. ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN HOT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS NUDGED EAST AHEAD OF
A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ON THE
CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE RESIDE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104-105 DEGREES.
LATE SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING IN TERMS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE...AT THIS TIME ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
ATTEMPT TO BEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. WHETHER
THIS ENHANCED MID-UPPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH AS LATER SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE TIME AT WHICH THIS FEATURE BEGINS RETROGRADING WESTWARD.
BELIEVE ENOUGH CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SHOWN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS PARMER COUNTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SAID UNCERTAINTIES GOING FORWARD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO BUILD WEST AND
NORTHWEST WHILE AMPLIFYING...THUS SHIFTING THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
90S LOCALLY. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LOOKS TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NWP NOW SUGGESTING THAT A PERIOD OF CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY THEREFORE BE IN THE OFFING FOR A PERIOD NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH.
HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW AFTER SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILED SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND EXTENT/AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULTS IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES INDEED PLAY OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 99 69 97 67 / 10 0 0 0
TULIA 99 70 98 69 / 10 10 0 0
PLAINVIEW 100 71 98 70 / 10 10 0 0
LEVELLAND 101 71 99 70 / 10 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 100 74 100 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 102 70 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 101 71 99 71 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 104 76 104 75 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 103 75 102 73 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 106 78 104 77 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/99/05
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
651 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.AVIATION...
INTERMITTENT MVFR CIGS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES SHOULD LIFT TO
VFR BY 13Z AT AUS AND 14Z AT SAT/SSF. TIMING IS BASED ON THE LAST
FEW DAYS AND THE HRRR WHICH HANDLED THE ONSET OF MVFR CIGS BEST
THIS MORNING DESPITE SIMULATING LOWER IFR CLOUD DECKS. THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUE PAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS FOR THE I-35 TAF SITES BETWEEN 2-6Z TONIGHT
UNTIL LLJ DECOUPLES FROM THE SURFACE. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AGAIN AT SAT/SSF BRIEFLY TOMORROW
MORNING...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD BE LESS
THAN TODAY SO CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM...AND LIKELY THE NEXT FEW DAYS IS ON THE
MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES RESULTING IN APPARENT TEMPS
BRIEFLY REACHING OR EXCEEDING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE
COMPLICATION FOR TODAY IS WHILE CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT A
FEW OBSERVATIONS WILL REACH THE REQUIRED 108 DEGREE HEAT INDEX
CRITERION...THIS MAY ONLY BE BRIEF AS DEWPOINTS SHOULD DECREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS CONFIDENCE IN COUNTY WIDE...PERSISTENT
ADVISORY LEVEL INDICES IS LOWER. MODEL VERIFICATION HAS BEEN IN
THE 98-99 PERCENT RANGE ON BOTH MAX T AND MIN RH AND HAVE NOT
DEVIATED WITH THIS PACKAGE.
THE TIME AND SPATIAL EXTENT CONFIDENCE ISSUES...AS WELL AS
INTEROFFICE COLLABORATION...LED TO THE DECISION TO CONTINUE WITH
HANDLING THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPS AND HWO MENTIONS AND INCLUDING
AREA SPECIFICITY. WILL ALSO BRIEF NEXT SHIFT ON THE POSSIBLE
POTENTIAL FOR A SHORT FUSE ADVISORY SHOULD THE FORECAST NOT GO AS
PLANNED.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE SAME FORECAST QUESTIONS WILL COME INTO PLAY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE CHANCE FOR ADVISORIES TO BE
ISSUED THIS WEEKEND. AGAIN...AS IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THE DAY
THAT APPEARS THE HOTTEST OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS IS SATURDAY. SOME
SLIGHTLY LOWER SURFACE MOISTURE SUNDAY AND MONDAY MAY RESULT IN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF...FOR LACK OF A BETTER WORD...RELIEF BUT
ADVISORIES MAY STILL BE NEEDED REGARDLESS SINCE MAX TEMPS ALONE
WILL FLIRT WITH CRITERIA.
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A VERY SIMILAR SET UP TO LAST WEEKS
BOUNDARY PASSAGE THAT RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CWA WILL DEVELOP. A SOUTHWARD COLD FRONT
GENERATED BY TROUGHING OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD
WESTWARD AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT THE CWA FROM THE NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING DRY ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES UP TO ABOUT 700 MB AND A VERY DRY LOW LEVEL
ATMOSPHERE...THINK BOUNDARY INDUCED COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY
RESULT IN RECORD HIGHS BEING REALIZED WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AUSTIN AREA. AS FAR AS POPS
GO...PWATS ARE IN THE 1.7-1.8 RANGE EVEN WITH THE VERY DRY LOW
LEVEL ATMOSPHERE. INSTABILITY WILL BE MEAGER WITH THE DRY SURFACE
AIR AND THE ECMWF KEEPS THE AREA DRY...BUT GFS ON THE OTHER HAND
IS QUITE A BIT MORE BULLISH ON QPF DEVELOPMENT. BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR POPS WILL BE IF THE BOUNDARY CAN INTERACT WITH THE SEA
BREEZE AND GENERATE ENOUGH LIFT FOR A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
EASTERNMOST ZONES AND COASTAL PLAINS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 77 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 100 75 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 101 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 103 79 103 80 104 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 101 76 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 75 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 100 76 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 77 100 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 78 100 77 102 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 101 77 101 77 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LITTLE ROCK AR
258 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED AROUND THE NATURAL STATE
TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY TODAY AND CONTINUING TO PUSH TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES THAT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. HRRR AND
WRF...HAVE CONTINUALLY SHOWED CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS...COULD NOT
JUSTIFY MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP
ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE
40 WEST OF LITTLE ROCK TO NORTH OF INTERSTATE 530. THIS WILL ONCE
AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT LIMITED ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
AGAIN ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM ALONG THE ARKANSAS
RIVER VALLEY AND TO THE SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH HEAT INDICES LIKELY
TOPPING 110 DEGREES. AS A RESULT...HAVE GONE AND ISSUED AN EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING ALONG THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AND
BRING EVEN HOTTER TEMPERATURES TO THE NATURAL STATE...WITH NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. AT THIS POINT...FELT CONFIDENT IN EXTENDING
THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...HOWEVER DID NOT EXTEND THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING. WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS MONITOR THE THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
UPPER AIR PATTERNS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO
SUBTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH EARLY IN THIS PERIOD. AT THIS
TIME...PRECIPITATION AMOUNT SHOULD BE LIGHT. MAIN EFFECT OF THIS
FEATURE WILL BE TO BRING AN AIR MASS WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR 71 89 74 92 / 50 20 20 10
CAMDEN AR 78 100 79 101 / 20 10 10 10
HARRISON AR 70 92 73 95 / 50 20 20 10
HOT SPRINGS AR 78 100 79 101 / 20 10 10 10
LITTLE ROCK AR 76 98 78 99 / 40 20 20 10
MONTICELLO AR 78 100 78 100 / 20 20 20 10
MOUNT IDA AR 75 100 75 100 / 10 10 10 10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR 70 90 74 94 / 50 20 20 10
NEWPORT AR 71 88 73 92 / 40 20 20 10
PINE BLUFF AR 76 98 76 99 / 30 20 20 10
RUSSELLVILLE AR 76 99 76 101 / 40 20 10 10
SEARCY AR 72 93 76 97 / 50 20 20 10
STUTTGART AR 75 95 76 96 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
INDEPENDENCE-JACKSON-MARION-NEWTON-SEARCY-STONE.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR BRADLEY-
CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-
GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
OUACHITA-PERRY-POPE-PULASKI-SALINE-YELL.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
CLEBURNE-CONWAY-DESHA-FAULKNER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-
LONOKE-MONROE-PERRY-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-
CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DREW-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-MONTGOMERY-
OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK-SCOTT.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...65 / LONG TERM...55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
915 AM MST THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA
TODAY...BRINGING MOISTURE AND AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM TREND BACK
TO THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THIS HAPPENS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. WE WILL THEN KEEP ENOUGH MOISTURE
FOR A FEW STORMS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE EXPECTED AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.DISCUSSION...THE COMPLEX AND OVERNIGHT DEVELOPMENT WE WERE
EXPECTING LINGERED DEEPER INTO MORNING HOURS WITH A MORE ACTIVE
DEBRIS FIELD THAN WE ANTICIPATED. THE REMNANT MCV FROM THE COMPLEX
SOUTH OF THE BORDER CAN BE SEEN SWIRLING ALONG JUST SOUTHWEST OF
TUCSON AT 9 AM. THE PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE AS
IT CONTINUES NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE CITY.
OTHERWISE...THE GULF SURGE AND DEEP CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WE WERE
EXPECTING IS HERE. THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING IS VERY CONDUCIVE TO SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH MODIFIED ML CAPE OVER 1K J/KG AND
SOLID WIND PROFILE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. PRECIPITABLE WATER BACK
OVER 1.5 INCHES. CIRA LPW SHOWS THE INCREASING MOISTURE TREND AT THE
H7 TO H5 LAYER CONTINUED OVERNIGHT PUSHING DEEP INTO SOUTHERN
ARIZONA WITH TOTALS RANGING FROM 1.2 TO 1.6 ACROSS THE AREA.
THE QUESTION IS WILL WE BE ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS LATER
TODAY? THE MORNING DEBRIS THROWS A WRENCH IN THE NORMAL DIURNAL
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. LATEST HRRR AND UOFA WRF-NAM TRENDS VERY
REASONABLY ARGUE FOR INHIBITED DEVELOPMENT FOR AREAS AFFECTED BY
THIS MORNING`S ACTIVITY (INCLUDING THE TUCSON METRO). WE WILL LOOK
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO AREAS THAT SHOULD SEE BETTER SUNSHINE TODAY.
AFTER STRONG REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SANTA CRUZ AND
SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY...WE WILL THEN SEE WHAT WE CAN PUSH NORTH
AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE REST OF OUR CWA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 07/18Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL AND BKN-OVC CLOUDS AOA 12K FT AGL
WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA FROM TUCSON SOUTH AND WEST THRU 06/19Z.
AFT 06/19Z SHRA/TSRA BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS STILL WITH A FOCUS
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS PSBL IN AND NEAR STRONGER TSRA.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 06/05Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES...SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASING MOISTURE ARRIVING A BIT EARLIER THAN
EXPECTED WILL RESULT IN AN UPSWING IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
A SHORT PERIOD OF INTENSE RAIN AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH.
DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
FROM NOGALES EASTWARD...AND ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. INCREASING
COVERAGE WILL THEN BE ON TAP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEK.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE SOME AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...WHILE WE`RE CERTAINLY BEGINNING TO SEE A BETTER
MOISTURE SIGNAL TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST...THERE ARE A COUPLE ISSUES TO
CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY`S FORECAST AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH SWINGS INTO
NM. THE FIRST REVOLVES AROUND THE LEVEL OF CLEARING WE SEE OUT WEST.
WHILE NAM/GFS SOUNDINGS SW OF TUCSON SHOW DECENT MUCAPE...IT`S ALL
LOCKED UP ABOVE A STOUT NOSE OF +25C AIR AROUND 850 MB WHICH WILL
REQUIRE SOLID DIABATIC HEATING TO TAP INTO TODAY. THE SECOND
ISSUE...POSSIBLY A BIT LESS IMPORTANT...IS THE FLOW WHICH IS
GENERALLY LIGHT AND PRETTY ILL-DEFINED BELOW 500 MB. HOWEVER...ALL
NWP SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME KIND OF SUBTLE IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE MID-
LEVEL FLOW WHICH MAY AUGMENT THE FLOW A TOUCH TODAY.
BASED ON SATELLITE...RADAR TRENDS...AND HIRES NWP SOLUTIONS...FEEL
WE WILL SEE ENOUGH CLEARING TODAY TO SET THE STAGE FOR GOOD
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SOUTH AND WEST OF TUCSON. IN ADDITION...OPTED TO
CONTINUE PATCHY BLOWING DUST WORDING OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL/WESTERN
PIMA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WHERE THE LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM
INDICATES RELATIVE SOIL MOISTURE VALUES DOWN NEAR 30-35 PCT. THESE
VALUES ARE LIKELY TOO `MOIST` FOR WIDESPREAD AREAS OF DUST...BUT LOW
ENOUGH TO CAUSE LOCAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY GIVEN
INDICATIONS OF POTENTIALLY STRONG GUSTY OUTFLOWS IN ANY STORMS THAT
DO MANAGE TO FORM.
NO BIG CHANGES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS OUR POP VALUES ARE
TRENDING VERY NICELY. COVERAGE SHOULD SHIFT EAST A TOUCH TOMORROW
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH MOVES INTO THE ARKLATEX
REGION. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST SHOT AT STORMS FOR THE TUCSON AREA
APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY...JUST AS THE MAIN SLUG OF MOISTURE BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST OF AZ. THEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...MOISTURE WILL SLOSH BACK
WEST AGAIN AS THE HIGH AMPLIFIES AND MOVES BACK TOWARDS THE NM/TX
BORDER. BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE HIGH CENTER MAY GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BEGIN SHUTTING ACTIVITY DOWN A TOUCH ONCE AGAIN.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MEYER
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CERNIGLIA
PREV DISCUSSION...CARLAW
VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
127 PM PDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW LIGHTER SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MODEL FORECASTS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT LOWER WITH THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT REACHES THE
SIERRA/WESTERN NV TONIGHT, BUT SATELLITE ESTIMATES STILL INDICATE
A STREAM OF 1+ INCH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE (PW) VALUES ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO BE
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS
AND LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN. FAIRLY STABLE LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT OVERALL, BUT WITH STRONG FORCING OVER THE SIERRA WE CAN`T
RULE OUT THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH LITTLE RAIN ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE. AS SUCH, A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT ROUGHLY FOR A REGION ALONG THE SIERRA
FROM MARKLEEVILLE TO TAHOE TO PLUMAS COUNTY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON, THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DECREASED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE STRONGEST
FORCING AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF
MINERAL/PERSHING/CHURCHILL COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, THE
MOST LIKELY SCENARIO FOR FRIDAY IS NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TO RECEIVE AT LEAST 0.10 INCH RAIN, BUT WITH A FAIRLY
STABLE AIR MASS THE CHANCES FOR RECEIVING GREATER THAN 0.50 INCHES
ARE LIMITED. HOWEVER, THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODS AND SEVERE STORMS
IS LOW BUT NOT ZERO, ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE ANY CLOUD BREAKS.
FOR SATURDAY, THERE ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDER NORTH OF
PORTOLA-PYRAMID LAKE-FALLON AS A WEAK UPPER WAVE COULD TRIGGER A
FEW GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS. JCM
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. BY SUNDAY
LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE
CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE ROCKIES.
GENERALLY EXPECTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WINDS. STRONGER ZEPHYR
WILL BE POSSIBLE STARTING ON TUESDAY, BUT MORE LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. COMBINED WITH LOW RH, FIRE WEATHER COULD BECOME A
CONCERN LATER IN THE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IF CONSIDERABLE LIGHTNING
STRIKES TONIGHT CREATE THE POSSIBILITY OF HOLD OVER FIRES. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW RIGHT NOW FOR WHICH DAY NEXT WEEK WOULD HAVE THE STRONGEST
WINDS AS MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE. TOLBY
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WSW WINDS GUSTING TO 20KTS AND REDUCED
SLANTWISE VISIBILITY DUE TO SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE DODGE FIRE IN
THE NORTHERN SIERRA. HAZE IS CURRENTLY EVIDENT FROM THE OREGON
BORDER DOWN TO THE RENO/CARSON CITY AREA AND OUT PAST FALLON. EXPECT
HAZE TO BEGIN MIXING OUT WITH THE AFTERNOON WESTERLIES AFTER 00Z.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA CREST
IN MONO COUNTY AFTER 00Z. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES INTO THE
CENTRAL SIERRA STARTING AROUND 05Z AND INTO CENTRAL WESTERN NEVADA
BY 09Z. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE AMOUNT OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD BE WIDESPREAD
STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED STORMS EMBEDDED.
TOLBY
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THIS REMAINS A LOW-MEDIUM CONFIDENCE SITUATION WITH RESPECT TO
DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. CONFLICTING
SIGNALS IN LATEST GFS GUIDANCE (SHEAR/LIFT VS INSTABILITY ALOFT
VS PRECIP WATER), AND HRRR SHOWING MAINLY JUST SHOWERS DEVELOPING
WITH APPROACHING UPPER WAVE. CLOUD COVER IS RATHER THICK,
EXTENDING OFF THE CA COASTLINE, WHICH IS LIMITING HEATING TODAY
AND LAPSE RATES ALOFT.
WE FEEL THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT RISK OF A FEW DRY STORMS THIS
EVE AND TONIGHT IN THE SIERRA FROM ROUGHLY SONORA PASS TO
SUSANVILLE TO CONTINUE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH. OUR CONFIDENCE IS
NOWHERE NEAR SUFFICIENT HOWEVER TO UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING.
STORMS COULD TURN WET QUITE QUICKLY AS UPPER LOW APPROACHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT BUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN RESULT IN NEW FIRE STARTS
OUTSIDE RAIN CORES. A TRANSITION TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER IS ANTICIPATED AREAWIDE AFTER 9-12Z/FRI SO THE
WATCH WILL END THEN.
HEADS UP FOR NEXT WEEK, WHERE PATTERN BECOMES DRY WITH BREEZIER
SW FLOW AS UPPER LOW LOOKS TO PARK OFF THE CA/OR COASTLINE. IF WE
HAVE APPRECIABLE LIGHTNING TONIGHT OR TOMORROW, THESE CONDITIONS
NEXT WEEK COULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF HOLDOVER FIRES. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...CA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT CAZ271>273.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO OUR
SOUTH, THEN SLOWLY MOVE THE COAST OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO VIRGINIA
TONIGHT ALONG A FRONT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVECT NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL ALLOWING THE AREA OF
SHOWERS LOCATED IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER,
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND NEW ENGLAND HAS FACTORED
INTO THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH WITH
RECENT MODEL RUNS. THIS PUSHES THE RAIN/ NO RAIN CUTOFF TO ABOUT
PHILADELPHIA, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IN DELMARVA. IN
TERMS OF TIMING, THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS KEEP THE BEST CHANCE AROUND
OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS COULD BE AROUND THE
WHOLE NIGHT. STAYED CLOSE TO STAT GUIDANCE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL BE
WARMER WITH THE THICKER CLOUDS IN DELMARVA IN THE LOW 70`S WITH 60`S
AND EVEN SOME 50`S FURTHER NORTHWEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS ARE STILL LIKELY IN DELMARVA. WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION FROM
PHILADELPHIA TO THE NORTHWEST. TOTAL QPF HAS ALSO DECREASED WITH THE
SOUTHERN TRENDS ON ALL THE OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. WENT WITH THE
DRIER SREF GIVEN THE 12Z MODELS TODAY, WHICH HAS TOP RAINFALL TOTALS
AROUND A HALF INCH IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN SUNNY
AREAS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN JERSEY SHORE AND DELMARVA WILL WARM
INTO THE 80`S. FURTHER SOUTHEAST, WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OCCUR,
THE FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE MET/MAV GUIDANCE SETS WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70`S. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REMAINS OVER THE EXACT RAIN/NO RAIN
LINE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES WILL BE MOVG TO OUR S AT THE START OF THE PD.
LTST MDL RUNS HAVE ALL TRENDED S THIS CYCLE. FOR NRN AREAS, THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIP, CENTRAL AREAS, LITTLE, IF ANY AND FOR SRN
AREAS, QPF HAS DECREASED.
GUIDANCE HAS ALSO SPED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP UP WITH THE RAIN
BEING OVER MOST EVERYWHERE DURG SAT NIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS
ALG THE DELMARVA AND PSBLY EXTREME SERN NJ, WHERE THERE CUD BE
SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO THE DAY ON SAT.
THE LOW PRES WILL MOV NE WELL OUT TO SEA AS WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS
IN FOR SUN, BRINGING WHAT SHUD BE A NICE DAY. THEN, BY MON THERE
ARE SOME TIMING DIFFS WRT TO SOME PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF A FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THE GFS IS ESSENTIALLY DRY ON MON. THE CMC BRING A CDFNT TO THE
WRN AREAS DURG THE DAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE CDFNT TO THE W BUT
BRINGS SOME PREFRONTAL PRECIP DURG THE DAY, SO FOR NOW WILL JUST
GO WITH SOME LOW POPS.
MON NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY DRY, THEN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
BRING THE CFP ON TUE, WHICH, BASED ON CURRENT TIMING, WOULD BE THE
WETTEST PD...MOST LIKELY TUE AFTN/EVE.
BEHIND THE FRONT, SFC HIGH PRES AND YET ANOTHER H5 RIDGE MOVE OVER
THE REGION.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE RIGHT AROUND TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NRML THRU THE PD,
WITH GENLY PLEASANT HUMIDITY VALUES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE PERIOD WITH SOME TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE FOR KACY, KMIV AND KILG. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER TONIGHT TO AROUND 5,000 FEET IN MOST SPOTS. SOME
SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES FROM KILG AND SITES SOUTHEAST.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BRIEF CEILING OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTION WILL
BE AT KACY WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECASTED FOR A TIME
OVERNIGHT. ON FRIDAY, AWAY FROM KACY CEILINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
AND BREAK UP. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE UNDER 10 KNOTS AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT BECOMING STRONGER OUT OF THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH GUSTS TO
20 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, ESPECIALLY SE. OTRW,
VFR EXPECTED. IMPROVING CONDS WITH TIME. SOUTHERN AREAS WITH RAIN
POSSIBLE. GENERALLY VFR ACROSS THE NORTH. NE WIND 10 TO 20 KTS
PSBL SERN AREAS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
SAT-SUN...VFR. NE WIND 15 TO 25 KTS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST
DURING THE DAY. MDT CONFIDENCE
MON...VFR. SOME MVFR/IFR PSBL IN MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA. NE WIND
10 TO 20 KTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...
AFTER A MAINLY TRANQUIL NIGHT, SEAS WILL INCREASE ON FRIDAY. THEY
WILL LIKELY RISE TO AROUND FOUR FEET LATE IN THE DAY. SOME EAST-
NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS AS WELL BY SUNSET AS A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMS TO OUR SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AND AN SCA WILL BE NEEDED
BY FRI NIGHT, IF NOT SOONER.
SAT-SUN...WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.
SUN NIGHT-MON...SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 5 FT, WHILE
WIND DROPS BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ON MONDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE
LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL EXHIBIT A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN JUST SPOTTY TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING.
THIS GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THE AREAS MOST SUSCEPTIBLE SO SUCH
FLOODING WOULD BE DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY DURING THE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIDAL CYCLE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
BUILDING SEAS FRIDAY TO AROUND FOUR FEET AND INCREASING WINDS TO
AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY LEAD TO INCREASING RIPS IN THE MODERATE
CATEGORY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/NIERENBERG
MARINE...GAINES/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA
RIP CURRENTS...GAINES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1208 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
NEEDED TO MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF
TODAY. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A STEADY DECREASE IN
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT PAST FEW HOURS. IT
APPEARS THAT A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS
TENNESSEE MAY BE SAPPING ENERGY FROM THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS
ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPSTREAM RADAR OBS ALSO SHOWING
THIS SAY DECREASE IN PRECIP. THE HRRR MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A DECENT
ON THIS SITUATION...ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE NAM12 WHICH HAS
PRETTY MUCH 100 PERCENT COVERAGE OF PRECIP ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. THE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS AND
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WERE UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
THE OTHER CHANGE MADE WAS TO CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INCREASE IN
PRECIPCOVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT AND AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE BOTH MOVE ACROSS THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AREAS. EVEN THOUGH WE ARE EXPERIENCING
A LULL IN THE ACTION...THE MODELS ALL ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
AN UPTICK IN SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE OTHER CHANGE MADE WAS TO DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVERALL...AS INSTABILITY IS A BIT LACKING DUE TO THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SUN. THAT ALL BEING SAID...WENT
WITH A GENERAL 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN THROUGH 0Z THIS
EVENING...AS OPPOSED TO THE PREVIOUS 90 TO 100 POP...TO REFLECT
THE CURRENT DOWNWARD TREND IN PRECIP AND THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
OUTPUT. THEREFORE...THE QPF...POP...POP12...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS
WERE ALL UPDATED TO REFLECT THE LATEST THINKING. SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE TO THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEWPOINTS...AND HUMIDITY GRIDS...BUT NOTHING THAT
WARRANTED UPDATING IN THE TEXT FORECAST PRODUCT. THE NEW ZONES
HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
PRECIPITATION IS FILLING IN AS SCHEDULED ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN MORE ISOLATED...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AS BETTER
FORCING ARRIVES FROM THE WEST. FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY
TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND POPS TO ALIGN WITH THE CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE IL/MO
BORDER...WITH A FRONT WARM FRONT DRAPED TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY. CONVECTION OVERNIGHT HAS MAINLY BEEN CONFINED TO OUR
WEST...WHERE A MODEST 850 MB LOW JET IS POISED. A LARGER COMPLEX
OF STORMS ALSO DEVELOPED ACROSS ARKANSAS AND PUSHED EAST AND
SOUTHEAST WHILE WEAKENING.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...GRADUALLY BRINGING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND REFLECTIVE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE TO INCREASE AND INTENSIFY THROUGH THE DAY. LOWER
INSTABILITY AND HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RAINERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS CAN TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME
LOCATIONS.
AS LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS AWAY LATER TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION WILL BE
DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE
EAST ON FRIDAY...WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY WORKING IN
FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATER IN THE DAY.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING IN THE 70S TODAY GIVEN THE PRECIPITATION
AND CLOUD COVER AROUND. ON FRIDAY...READINGS WILL RECOVER A BIT
MORE...WITH MOST PLACES SEEING AROUND THE 80 DEGREE MARK.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AN
ACTIVE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN PLACE. THIS FEATURES A SET UP WITH A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH THE AXIS MEANDERING JUST WEST OF
THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. OVERALL
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE BROAD LONGWAVE
PATTERN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARDS A BIT AS A
SHORTWAVE SLIDES JUST NORTHEAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY TO START THE
PERIOD ON SATURDAY BUT AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO DEEPEN AGAIN
ANOTHER WAVE TAKES A MORE DIRECT TRACK OVER ALL OF KENTUCKY ON
SUNDAY AS IT TRAVELS THE RIDGE AND INTO THE REGION. DURING THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...A MUCH MORE
POTENT WAVE TRACKS OVER THE RIDGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 813 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
LIFR OR WORSE FOG WILL MIX OUT AS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH THE MORNING...BEFORE LIKELY DROPPING TO IFR IN THE
AFTERNOON AS MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION ARRIVES FROM THE WEST OUT
AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN LOW END MVFR WITH VISIBILITIES IN THE IFR
RANGE AT TIMES. ONCE CONVECTION BEGINS TO DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS EVENING...IFR STRATUS LOOKS TO FILL IN BEHIND DEPARTING
LOW PRESSURE. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT AROUND 5 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
329 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRAVEL EAST ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SATURDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SFC LOW AND COMPACT UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUE TO TRACK SLOWLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE MID OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPREADING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND HAVE
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN CWA. HAVE RELIED ON THE HRRR AND RAP IN
TERMS OF EVOLUTION AS THE SYNOPTIC MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THIS RAIN.
NEVERTHELESS...THE EVENT AS A WHOLE APPEARS LIGHTER AND MORE
SOUTHWARD IN TERMS OF QPF DISTRIBUTION COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. INSTBY IS LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHERN MD...AND HEAVIER
SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE LOWER BAY ARE INDICATIVE OF THIS
ENVIRONMENT. OUTSIDE OF THIS AREA...POSSIBLY EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO NELSON COUNTY...THUNDER IS NOT EXPECTED.
EXPECT THE SHIELD OF RAIN TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL SEE RAIN AT SOME
POINT...ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERN EDGE MAY GRADUALLY ERODE AND LEAVE
LOCATIONS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE DRY AT SOME POINT...ALTHOUGH
THIS IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. PWATS WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH (NEAR TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF I-66) TO PRODUCE A SOAKING RAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS. HOWEVER DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE THE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS NEEDED NOR THE STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING TO PRODUCE SHORT
TERM RUNOFF ISSUES. THERE ARE INDICATIONS LATE TONIGHT AS THE LOW
BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN AND SOME UPPER ENERGY APPROACHES...THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME ENHANCED RAINFALL IN CENTRAL VA. WILL LEAVE A
MENTION OF LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE HWO. LOWS TONIGHT IN 60S WITH
PERHAPS SOME LOWER 70S.
SPECIFIC DETAILS ARE STILL NOT OF THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE HEADING
INTO FRIDAY AS MODEL DIFFERENCES REMAIN AS THE LOW REACHES A
PIVOT POINT IN THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. CONFIDENCE HIGHEST IN
RAINFALL...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED STORM...SOUTH AND EAST OF DC.
HOWEVER A CHANCE OF SHOWERS COULD EXTEND BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
SHENANDOAH VALLEY. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL DRYING TREND FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S...BUT WILL LIKELY
DEPEND ON THE DURATION OF RAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT MOST PRECIP TO BE MOVING OUT OF CWA BY LATE EVENING
FRIDAY...THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE FAR SOUTHERN MARYLAND WHERE
SHOWERY ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT FOR A FEW HOURS.
SFC LOW MOVES TO OUR EAST FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING US DRY AND
FAIRLY MILD FOR EARLY AUGUST. TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH DEWPOINTS IN L60S. OVERALL...IT SHOULD BE A
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER WEEKEND. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD
BE THE LOW CHANCE OF A MOUNTAIN SHOWER OR T-STORM LATE SUNDAY
RESULTING FROM TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...THOUGH OVERALL COVERAGE
SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BY MONDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...WHICH IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS...GGEM...AND ECMWF...BUT MUCH
FASTER ON THE GGEM AND GFS. EXISTING FORECAST HAD WIDESPREAD CHANCE
POPS...WHICH DESPITE THE SLOWER SOLUTION THE ECMWF FAVORS
ANYWAY. BOTTOM LINE...WE MAINTAINED THIS. ON TUESDAY THE ECMWF
ALMOST CATCHES UP WITH THE GFS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS
SLOWING DOWN WITH IT. GGEM ON THE OTHER HAND KEEPS GOING FAST AND
SENDS THE SYSTEM OFF THE COAST ALREADY. FORECAST ON THIS DAY HAS
MOST CONFIDENCE AT PRESENT GIVEN THE SYSTEM TIMING IS AT LEAST A BIT
CLOSER...BUT GIVEN DISCONTINUITIES EARLIER IN THE PERIOD UNCERTAINTY
IS STILL RATHER LARGE. BY WEDNESDAY THE GFS PUSHES THE SYSTEM OFF THE
COAST...WHILE THE SLOWER ECMWF GENERATES A COASTAL LOW OF RATHER
IMPRESSIVE STRENGTH FOR AUGUST. AGAIN...STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO
CONTINUITY WITH A DRYING FORECAST...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
RAIN IS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A PERIOD OF
MODERATE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THE DURATION IS SOMEWHAT IN
QUESTION...AS WELL AS HOW FAR NORTH THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND AVIATION
IMPACTS REACH. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL
TERMINALS...WITH THE CHANCE OF IFR GENERAL LIMITED TO NEAR OR
SOUTH OF DC. RAIN MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING AND AT THIS TIME IT
IS UNCERTAIN HOW QUICKLY IT WILL EXIT ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER THERE IS
A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE VFR WILL RETURN BY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UNDER 10 KT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS BY FRIDAY NIGHT...AS PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO OUR EAST. VFR CONDS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR ARRIVES MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
MONDAY/TUESDAY ALONG WITH INCREASED RISK OF SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WHILE THERE COULD BE A THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AND AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART JUST A GENERAL RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE OR E THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GRADUAL
STRENGTHENING. HAVE CAPPED THE WINDS AT 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SCA
CONDITIONS. THE SCA NOW GOES INTO EFFECT AT 6 AM FOR THE BAY AND
LOWER POTOMAC AND WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS.
THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INTO SAT MORNING WITH LOW
PRESSURE REMAINING NEAR OUR AREA. EXPECT WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW
SCA BY SAT AFTERNOON AS LOW PULLS AWAY FROM AREA. SUB-SCA WINDS
SUN THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SUB-SCA COMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ531>534-537>543.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
ANZ530.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ADS
NEAR TERM...ADS
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...RCM/MSE
AVIATION...ADS/MSE
MARINE...ADS/MSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
335 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA.
COUPLE OF MAIN SHORTWAVES ARE UPSTREAM OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD
WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND IS GENERATING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY
IN THE MID LEVELS IS SUPPORTING ARC OF LGT SHRA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON HRRR AND RAP AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...COULD SEE ISOLD SHR OR SPRINKLES CLIP TIP OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN EFFECT FM THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BE A LOT OF MID CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN CWA MOST OF TODAY.
SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 5-10KFT BKN CIGS
UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TODAY. SOUTHERN CWA
SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS SO WENT WARMEST
THERE WITH MID 70S NEAR WI BORDER. COOLEST READINGS IN THE UPR 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ATTN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY AND SD. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND ARRIVES OVER CNTRL MN AND
WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. BULK OF STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
STAYS OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE...BUT AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH
THE WAVE MOVES OVER MN...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85 ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT 300-305K /H9-H7/ SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS RAMP UP TO HIGHER
CHANCE AT KIWD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS
ISHPEMING AND IRON MOUNTAIN. MUCAPE IN LOWEST 3KM OR APPROX SFC-H7
STAYS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CWA. ISOLD TSRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST
AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MAY COULD ADVECT SMALL PORTION OF INSTABILITY
INTO CWA...BUT WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MIN
TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN LAST COUPLE NIGHTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
MN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE...SLOW MOVING...FAIRLY STRONG SHRTWV
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/SW CANADA IS FCST TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE ENE AND
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO THIS WEEKEND WHILE UPR TROF OVER QUEBEC IS FCST
TO WEAKEN AND MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE E. FCST CHALLENGES WL FOCUS ON
TIMING/POPS RELATED TO LARGER SCALE WAA IN ADVANCE OF THE WRN SHRTWV
AND OTHER DISTURBANCES TRACKING AHEAD OF IT NEAR THE CNDN BORDER AS
WELL AS IMPACT OF PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY HI PRES RDG/DRIER AIR HELD
NEARLY IN PLACE UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ON THE WRN FLANK OF SLOW
MOVING QUEBEC TROF. UNFORTUNATELY...SHARP MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
APRNT AS EARLY AS FRI NGT ON THE MSLP/PCPN EVOLUTION. SO CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LO ON THE FCST THRU THE WEEKEND.
FRI NGT...SHRTWV STREAKING THRU THE UPR MIDWEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF
STRONGER DISTURBANCE MOVING NEAR THE CNDN BORDER IS FCST BY MANY
MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...TO SHEAR OUT AND SLIDE SE THRU WI
ON WRN FLANK OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES RDG. ALTHOUGH THE 12Z NAM ALSO
SHOWS THE DIGGING SHRTWV AS WELL...THAT MODEL INDICATES BAND OF
MODEST WAA/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT BEST DEPICTED ON THE 305-310K SFCS
/ABOUT H775-675/ BTWN STRONGER DISTURBANCE AND HUDSON BAY HI PRES
RDG AND SOME UPR DVGC IN LEFT EXIT OF 80-90KT H3 JET MAX WL ALLOW A
BAND OF SHOWERS TO DRIFT E ACROSS UPR MI. WHEREAS THE NAM DROPS 0.50
TO 1.00 INCH OF RA OVER MUCH OF THE NRN CWA...THE GFS QPF IS NEAR
ZERO AS HUDSON BAY HI PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE CWA ON FRI EVNG.
SINCE THE BULK OF THE OTHER MODELS APPEAR TO SUPPORT THE NAM AND THE
12Z GFS IS VERY DIFFERENT FM THE 06Z RUN /WHICH LOOKED A LOT LIKE
THE 12Z NAM FOR QPF/...WL FOLLOW A FCST CLOSER TO THAT MODEL. AS
BAND OF STRONGEST WAA SHIFTS TO THE E THRU THE NGT AND LARGER SCALE
QVECTOR DVGC/ SUBSIDENCE MOVE IN OVERNGT...EXPECT THE HIER POPS TO
DIMINISH W-E.
SAT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS END OVER THE E EARLY IN THE DAY...
RISING HGTS/DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE/MORE LLVL ACYC FLOW
OVER THE UPR LKS WELL TO THE S OF SHRTWV LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NE
THRU FAR NW ONTARIO SHOULD BRING GENERALLY DRY WX TO THE CWA.
COMBINATION OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND H85 TEMPS RISING AS HI
AS 16C OVER THE W LATE IN THE DAY WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS REACHING AOA
80 ACRS THE W HALF OF THE CWA. MORE LINGERING CLDS AND LOWER H85
TEMPS OVER THE E WL HOLD TEMPS THERE IN THE 70S. SOME OF THE MODELS
INDICATE SOME SHOWERS/TS IN ADVANCE OF COLD FNT ATTENDANT TO ONTARIO
SHRTWV/SFC LO MAY REACH THE W LATE IN THE DAY...BUT WL FCST NO HIER
THAN LO CHC POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES/DRIER
GUIDANCE WITH MORE PERSISTENT HUDSON BAY HI PRES RDG.
SAT NGT THRU MON...SHRTWV IN FAR NW ONTARIO IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY TO THE ESE THRU NRN ONTARIO TO THE E OF BLDG UPR RDG IN THE
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE COLD FNT ATTENDANT
TO THIS DISTURBANCE AS WELL AS A TRAILING LO PRES TROF WL DROP SE
THRU THE UPR LKS...TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE APRNT AMONG THE GUIDANCE
AS DISAGREEMENT ON THE PERSISTENCE OF HUDSON BAY HI PRES RDG/AXIS OF
DRIER AIR REMAIN. WITH LO CONFIDENCE...WL THUS HOLD NEAR THE
CONSENSUS FCST. TEMPS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FNT WL RUN AOA NORMAL
WITH H85 TEMPS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 14C.
EXTENDED...AS UPR RDG IN THE PLAINS AMPLIFIES NEXT WEEK AND AN UPR
TROF DEEPENS IN SE CANADA/THE ERN CONSU...THE FLOW ALOFT WL TURN TO
THE NNW OVER THE GREAT LKS. CNDN HI PRES SHOULD BRING PREDOMINATELY
DRIER...COOLER WX TO THE CWA FOR TUE INTO THU. A SHRTWV RIDING OVER
THE PLAINS RDG DIGGING SEWD THRU THE NW FLOW ALF TOWARD THE UPR LKS
MAY BRING SOME SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY NEXT THU...BUT CONFIDENCE
THIS FAR OUT ON THE TIMING OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS TOO LO TO VARY FM
CONSENSUS LO CHC POPS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. COULD
SEE SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KIWD...BUT WEATHER SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY AT KCMX AND KSAW UNTIL 14-17Z. CEILING MAY NEAR
MVFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AT IWD. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK LO PRES TROFS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT RELATIVELY FLAT PRES
GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN WINDS UNDER 20KTS THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
234 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
UPPER GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN LARGE UPPER
LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA AND UPPER TROUGH OVER FAR WESTERN CANADA.
COUPLE OF MAIN SHORTWAVES ARE UPSTREAM OF UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE LEAD
WAVE IS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND IS GENERATING CLUSTER OF SHRA/TSRA
SOUTHERN MANITOBA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. WARM AIR ADVECTION MAINLY
IN THE MID LEVELS IS SUPPORTING ARC OF LGT SHRA TOWARD ISLE ROYALE
AND NORTHERN LK SUPERIOR. BASED ON HRRR AND RAP AND CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS...COULD SEE ISOLD SHR OR SPRINKLES CLIP TIP OF KEWEENAW
PENINSULA THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN EFFECT FM THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL BE A LOT OF MID CLOUDS OVER AT LEAST NORTHERN CWA MOST OF TODAY.
SINCE THERE ARE ALREADY A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 5-10KFT BKN CIGS
UPSTREAM IN MINNESOTA...BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER TODAY. SOUTHERN CWA
SHOULD STAY IN AT LEAST INTERVALS OF SUN AND CLOUDS SO WENT WARMEST
THERE WITH MID 70S NEAR WI BORDER. COOLEST READINGS IN THE UPR 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES WILL BE CLOSER TO LK SUPERIOR WITH MORE CLOUD COVER
AND EAST-SOUTHEAST ONSHORE GRADIENT WINDS.
FOR TONIGHT...ATTN TURNS TO SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER WY AND SD. THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS AND ARRIVES OVER CNTRL MN AND
WESTERN WI BY LATE TONIGHT. BULK OF STRONGER Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE
STAYS OUT AHEAD OF THAT SHORTWAVE...BUT AS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WITH
THE WAVE MOVES OVER MN...STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION AT H85 ALONG WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT 300-305K /H9-H7/ SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWERS
INTO WESTERN UPR MICHIGAN AFTER MIDNIGHT. POPS RAMP UP TO HIGHER
CHANCE AT KIWD AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS
ISHPEMING AND IRON MOUNTAIN. MUCAPE IN LOWEST 3KM OR APPROX SFC-H7
STAYS MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF CWA. ISOLD TSRA COULD SNEAK INTO FAR WEST
AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL JET MAY COULD ADVECT SMALL PORTION OF INSTABILITY
INTO CWA...BUT WILL KEEP TSRA OUT OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. MIN
TEMPS MUCH WARMER THAN LAST COUPLE NIGHTS MID 50S TO LOW 60S DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN
MN.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z FRI WITH ANOTHER
ENTERING INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THEN. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH ON FRI AND THE OTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST AND AFFECTS
THE AREA ON SAT. NAM SHOWS SOME 850-500 MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH ON FRI AND BOTH MOVE OUT SAT AFTERNOON
BEFORE RETURNING SAT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THIS FORECAST AS GFS...ECMWF AND NAM ALL HAVE
DIFFERENT IDEAS FOR HOW THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS GOING TO PLAY OUT.
ECMWF IS DRIER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH IT PCPN. GFS IS QUICKER MOVING
PCPN THROUGH. WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS WHICH SEEMED TO
KEEP SOME CONTINUITY TO THE FORECAST. LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE A
BREAK IN PCPN FOR LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING AND THEN ANOTHER
WAVE COMES IN AND TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE FORECAST WITH A BREAK
IN THE PCPN. BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN APPEARS TO BE FRI INTO FRI
EVENING...THEN HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE FOR SAT AND
SAT NIGHT. DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST FOR
TEMPERATURES.
IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS 12Z SUN WITH A TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL
CANADA AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SHORTWAVE HEADS
EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS SHORTWAVE
HEADS OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE ON MON AND PUSHES IT BACK INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED ON TUE WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE TROUGH DIGGING
INTO THE ERN U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS 12Z WED.
SFC RIDGING MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TUE AND REMAINS INTO
WED. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY...WENT DRY FOR
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AND REMOVED POPS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 231 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. COULD
SEE SHOWERS TOWARD DAYBREAK AT KIWD...BUT WEATHER SHOULD STAY
MAINLY DRY AT KCMX AND KSAW UNTIL 14-17Z. CEILING MAY NEAR
MVFR BY 18Z FRIDAY AT IWD. OTHERWISE...WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AROUND
10KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 435 AM EDT THU AUG 6 2015
A COUPLE OF WEAK TROUGHS OR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...BUT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...SRF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1228 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO SPREAD
EAST/SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS SEEMREASONABLE
IN DEVELOPING NEW CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF SERN SD AND NERN NE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RISK OVER
SEVERE STORMS IN THOSE AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
AN ANALYSIS OF THE 850MB 00Z CHART DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OFF TO OUR EAST...WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER WYOMING. RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW WAS IN PLACE HOWEVER PLENTY OF
DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SURGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE 500
MB CHART ALSO DEPICTED A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NATIONS
MID SECTION...AS WELL AS AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS AROUND A
DEEPENING TROUGH NEAR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB LOW WILL BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
AROUND 3000 J/KG OF MAX CAPE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM. 40 KTS OF BULK
SHEAR WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AND NORMAL TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA HAS BEEN PLACED
IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL RISK. EXPECT LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS IF STORMS DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS AN MCS PROPAGATES ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID
80S. ALTHOUGH WARMER AIR WILL ADVECT IN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS THE RESULT
OF WEAK DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER HIGH PRESSURE IS
STILL PROGGED TO BUILD INTO THE COUNTRIES MID SECTION EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POTENTIALLY PROVIDING US WITH A PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER
AND HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT COULD HAVE MVFR VSBYS AND
POSSIBLY MVFR CIGS WITH PCPN INTO MID AFTERNOON AT KOMA AND KLNK.
STORMS COULD AFFECT KOFK LATER THIS AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO PUT IN A TEMPO GROUP AT THIS TIME. ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY
BE ISOLD AND WILL WATCH AND AMEND IF NEEDED.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...KG
LONG TERM...KG
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
205 PM PDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY
AS DRIER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER ROUND
OF MOISTURE MAY BE ON TAP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN CONFINED TO MAINLY
WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY WHERE SOME MID LEVEL INSTABILITY IS
FUELING FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL JET. SUBCLOUD LAYERS IN THIS AREA ARE QUITE DRY WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 30S...SO GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS ARE A CONCERN
BUT STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE RAINFALL. WHILE
THE STORMS HAVE STRUGGLED TO DEPOSIT RAINFALL....THEY HAVE BEEN VERY
EFFICIENT LIGHTNING PRODUCERS WITH OVER 250 CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES SINCE THE NOON HOUR IN WESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTY. WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING NORTHWARD...A RED FLAG WARNING HAS
BEEN POSTED FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR MUCH OF SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND
THE EASTERN HALF OF INYO COUNTY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
STILL EXPECTING ATTENTION TO SHIFT FURTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS
MORE ROBUST CONVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY. CURRENT MESOANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
BUILDING ACROSS THIS AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG WITH
LIMITED CAPPING. SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE HRRR RUNS HAVE INSISTED ON
BREAKING THIS AREA OUT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS IS QUITE HIGH ALONG
THE COLORADO RIVER ROUGHLY FROM BULLHEAD CITY SOUTHWARD TO LAKE
HAVASU...SO THIS AREA WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE STORMS.
TONIGHT...ACTIVITY ACROSS MOHAVE AND EASTERN SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES
WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEVADA WHILE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN ZONES. WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AS A PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES...A
FEW BANDS OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL
BE OUR PRIMARY CONCERN FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING. INDIVIDUAL STORM
MOTION WILL BE RATHER SWIFT...BUT TRAINING STORMS WILL POSE A FLOOD
RISK WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER IN PLACE...SO MAINTAINED THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS FOR MOHAVE AND LINCOLN
COUNTIES. STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT DUE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR AS
WELL AS THE POSSIBILITY OF HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
FRIDAY...PACIFIC TROUGH WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ON FRIDAY DRAGGING THE
DEEPER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH IT. ANTICIPATE ONGOING
CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER TO BE CONFINED MAINLY TO SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA IN THE MORNING WHILE SHIFTING EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. BY 5 PM...ANY REMAINING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO EASTERN MOHAVE COUNTY AND FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN WITH
TRAINING STORMS...BUT THE THREAT WILL BE TRANSLATING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH STRONG SHEAR IN PLACE...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER AND HOW
MUCH IT INHIBITS DAYTIME HEATING. BY FRIDAY EVENING MOSTLY DRY AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER TEXAS WILL EXPAND WEST TOWARD NEW
MEXICO WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE STRETCHES GENERALLY NORTH-
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST STARTING LATE MONDAY. THIS COMBINATION
WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE TRACKING
NORTHWARD MAINLY INTO MOHAVE COUNTY. WILL CONTINUE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AREA TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW APPEARS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOISTURE SLIGHTLY EDGING WEST
WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AND HOW FAR WEST
IT MAY TRACK. OTHERWISE NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE COMMON
EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. &&
.FIRE WEATHER...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHWESTERN SAN
BERNARDINO AND SOUTHERN INYO COUNTY, HOWEVER, WITH DRY LOW-LEVELS,
VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION WAS REACHING THE GROUND AND AREA RADARS
SHOWED WEAK TO NO RETURNS ON THE LOWEST ELEVATION SCANS. THUS, THIS
HAS CREATED A SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING IN NORTHWEST
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY AND DEATH VALLEY NATIONAL PARK THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR DRY LIGHTNING FOR
CALIFORNIA ZONES 227 AND 228 AS A RESULT. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN
EYE ON THE REST OF INYO, ESMERALDA, SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NYE AS WELL
AS WESTERN CLARK AS A SMALL RISK FOR DRY LIGHTNING ALSO EXISTS IN
THESE AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH
TO ISSUE ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER, BASED ON THE GENERAL TRENDS THE
THREAT INTO ESMERALDA AND NORTHWESTERN INYO COUNTY LOOKS VERY LOW
AND THAT MOST ACTIVITY THERE SHOULD BE JUST SHOWERS. ACROSS MOHAVE,
LINCOLN AND MOST OF CLARK COUNTIES STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO GENERALLY
BE WET IN NATURE DUE TO THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
AS DRIER AIR SWEEPS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, THIS WILL HELP TO END THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO
INCREASE WINDS FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
AT OR BELOW 15 PERCENT, WIND GUSTS OF 35 MPH OR GREATER AS WELL AS
FUELS BEING DRIED OUT ENOUGH LOOK TO BE MET IN NEVADA ZONE 462 AND
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING HERE.
ELSEWHERE, ONLY ONE OR TWO OF THESE CRITERIA LOOK TO BE MET SO NO
HEADLINES WERE ISSUED.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 9-12KT
RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT SOMETIME BETWEEN 01Z-05Z AND
CONTINUING MUCH OF NIGHT. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS...WHICH COULD EXCEED 35KTS IF ANY ROBUST STORMS
DEVELOP IN THE VALLEY. OTHERWISE...CIGS IN THE 9-12K RANGE WITH
DISRUPTIONS TO APPROACH CORRIDORS LIKELY AT TIMES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 21Z FRIDAY BEFORE IMPROVING
CONDITIONS MOVE IN WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE BEFORE
00Z...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 15 CORRIDOR. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THIS
EVENING...THEN END RAPIDLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ERRATIC WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 45 KTS. CIGS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 10K FEET
EXCEPT NEAR SHRA/TSRA WHERE THEY COULD LOWER TO 6-8K FEET. GUSTY
WINDS OF 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 30KTS EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM.............PADDOCK
FIRE WEATHER...STACHELSKI
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
534 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
CANCELED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL BUT THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH 20 UTC DEPICT NUMEROUS SLOWING MOVING...WARM RAIN PROCESS
DOMINATED STORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. GIVEN TRENDS IN
THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE OVERALL HANDLED THE EVENT
WELL...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO WANE/PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 23-00 UTC. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE OCCLUDED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH LAKE
OAHE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE...A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A POTENTIAL WARM UP NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON QUASI-ZONAL THIS
WEEKEND AMPLIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SUPPORTS A
POSSIBLE TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...WARMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GIVEN WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND...DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF
ND HIGHWAY 200. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL FADE WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KISN AND KMOT FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ025-037-
048-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
316 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING SOUTH CENTRAL
AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST.
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING. RADAR TRENDS
THROUGH 20 UTC DEPICT NUMEROUS SLOWING MOVING...WARM RAIN PROCESS
DOMINATED STORMS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. GIVEN TRENDS IN
THE 17-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAVE OVERALL HANDLED THE EVENT
WELL...EXPECT ACTIVITY TO BEGIN TO WANE/PROPAGATE EAST INTO THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 23-00 UTC. FURTHER WEST NEAR THE OCCLUDED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NORTHEAST MONTANA THROUGH LAKE
OAHE...DIURNALLY DRIVEN ISOLATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 12 UTC DETERMINISTIC SUITE...A DRY
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
A POTENTIAL WARM UP NEXT WEEK HIGHLIGHTS THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT ON QUASI-ZONAL THIS
WEEKEND AMPLIFYING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST/CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS. THIS SUPPORTS A
POSSIBLE TRANSITION FROM NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS
WEEKEND...WARMING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. GIVEN WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
FAST QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THIS WEEKEND...DAILY CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY GENERALLY SOUTH OF
ND HIGHWAY 200. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO IMPACT KJMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ELSEWHERE WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THAT WILL FADE WITH
SUNSET. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 25 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KISN AND KMOT FRIDAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ022-023-
025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1223 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER AS MORNING CONVECTION AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S HAVE
DIMINISHED THE CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING. OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY INCREASE EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER
AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA HIGHWAY 200...AND THE WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE
QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AND RESULT
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 16 UTC...MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM A
FEW COUNTIES OFF OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WHERE ONGOING WEAKER CONVECTION WILL PREVENT INSTABILITY BUILD UP
NEEDED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 12-14
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE STILL SUGGEST STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AS STATED ABOVE...CLOUD
COVER DOES ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THESE AREAS WHICH MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST VERY
SLOWLY...WITH SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST HIGH REST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLOW STORM MOTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...THEREFORE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION PROPAGATION NORTHEASTWARD WAS SLOWED BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE ECHO TRAINING HAS BEEN ONGOING
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES...SURFACE
REPORTS OF RAINFALL...AND THE PRESENCE OF FREQUENT LIGHTENING
SUGGESTS AN ABSENCE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THUS...HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN DICKEY
COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...AND THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
A SERIES OF STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AN ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN FROM MCINTOSH AND DICKEY
COUNTIES IN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS ABERDEEN IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE OUT WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA TO THE DAKOTAS.
THE LATEST NAM/HRRR AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...AS PER THE
ARCING ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET PLAGUING THE JAMES RIVER BASIN...MORE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE...REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS
OF 1.50 WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN PLAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR PERSISTENT RAINS LEADING TO SOME HEAVY
RAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSION INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS WEEKEND...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO
THE RETURN TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A WEST COAST
TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS THAT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO
MONTANA...AND PERHAPS NORTH DAKOTA. CONSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. KDIK LOOKS
TO REMAIN WEST OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ022-023-
025-035>037-046>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1117 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES AT THIS TIME TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE
QUESTION FOR THE AFTERNOON IS HOW MUCH INSTABILITY AND RESULT
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CAN BE REALIZED GIVEN CURRENT CLOUD
COVER ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. GIVEN RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 16 UTC...MAY BE ABLE TO TRIM A
FEW COUNTIES OFF OF THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WHERE ONGOING WEAKER CONVECTION WILL PREVENT INSTABILITY BUILD UP
NEEDED FOR DEEPER CONVECTION AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT. THE 12-14
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND 12 UTC GLOBAL SUITE STILL SUGGEST STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SOUTH
CENTRAL AND INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. AS STATED ABOVE...CLOUD
COVER DOES ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THIS SOLUTION...HOWEVER...THE STRONG
SHORTWAVE STILL REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THESE AREAS WHICH MAY
PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING TO OVERCOME THIS ISSUE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 832 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST VERY
SLOWLY...WITH SOME AREAS OF PRECIPITATION REMAINING NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
LATEST HIGH REST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE SLOW STORM MOTION
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...THEREFORE THE FLOODING THREAT WILL
CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WHERE CURRENT FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION PROPAGATION NORTHEASTWARD WAS SLOWED BASED
ON THE LATEST RADAR OBSERVATIONS. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE ECHO TRAINING HAS BEEN ONGOING
FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. INSTANTANEOUS RAIN RATES...SURFACE
REPORTS OF RAINFALL...AND THE PRESENCE OF FREQUENT LIGHTENING
SUGGESTS AN ABSENCE OF WARM RAIN PROCESSES. THUS...HELD OFF ON
ISSUING ANY FLOOD ADVISORIES OR FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS IN DICKEY
COUNTY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM IS TIMING AND AREAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION...AND THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENTLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH WAS OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH
A SERIES OF STRONG UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING
NORTHEAST FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AN ESTABLISHED SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE JAMES RIVER BASIN FROM MCINTOSH AND DICKEY
COUNTIES IN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHWARD TOWARDS ABERDEEN IN SOUTH DAKOTA.
MEANWHILE OUT WEST...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SASKATCHEWAN TO EASTERN MONTANA TO THE DAKOTAS.
THE LATEST NAM/HRRR AND HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE
THAT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FROM EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING...WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE DAY...AS PER THE
ARCING ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW LEVEL JET PLAGUING THE JAMES RIVER BASIN...MORE CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE...REACHING THE JAMES VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. PWATS
OF 1.50 WITH WARM RAIN PROCESSES IN PLAY WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL. MAY NEED TO WATCH FOR
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST FOR PERSISTENT RAINS LEADING TO SOME HEAVY
RAINS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.
THE SYSTEM BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD OUT OF OUR AREA DURING THE
EVENING.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
IN THE WAKE OF THE NORTHWESTERN U.S. TROUGH PROGRESSION INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA THIS WEEKEND...THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS SHIFTS TO
THE RETURN TO STRONG RIDGING OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AS A WEST COAST
TROUGH BECOMES REESTABLISHED.
RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD REDUCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES AT LEAST DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THOUGH...THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE 00 UTC
ECMWF/GFS/GEFS THAT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES WILL BEGIN TO EJECT INTO
MONTANA...AND PERHAPS NORTH DAKOTA. CONSEQUENTLY...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1059 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO THE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...INCLUDING KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS. KDIK LOOKS
TO REMAIN WEST OF PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LUBBOCK TX
105 PM CDT THU AUG 6 2015
.AVIATION...
THERE IS A SLIM...ABOUT 10 PERCENT...CHANCE OF A HIGH-BASED
T-STORM IN THE VICINITY OF KPVW BETWEEN 21 UTC AND 02 UTC.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SURFACE WINDS
REMAINING MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING A BIT GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/
AVIATION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXPAND FURTHER ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT LEADING TO HOT AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
WITHIN A SURFACE TROUGH COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED HIGH-BASED
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF KLBB BUT POSSIBLY NEAR KPVW. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
TOO SPARSE FOR INCLUSION WITHIN THE KPVW TAF FOR NOW. RMCQUEEN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CDT THU AUG 6 2015/
SHORT TERM...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO BETTER SURFACE WARMING WITH
HIGHS TODAY A DEGREE OR MAYBE TWO WARMER FOR MOST OF THE AREA...AND
SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF SUMMER SO FAR. SURFACE MOISTURE STILL
ELEVATED THOUGH WILL TREND DOWNWARDS DURING THE PEAK MIXING
PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON...SO WILL ALSO LIMIT HEAT INDEX VALUES
SOMEWHAT. WE REMAIN A BIT UNCERTAIN IF MODELS ARE CORRECTLY
FORECASTING SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES...AND IF UNDERPLAYED BY ONLY 2
OR 3 DEGREES MAY REQUIRE CONSIDERATION OF A HEAT ADVISORY IN THE
SOUTHEAST CORNER OF OUR AREA. BUT FOR NOW WE SIDE WITH THE BULK OF
OUR GUIDANCE WHICH COMES UP JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS.
WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...CAPPING STILL LOOKS
MARGINAL AND ACTUALLY FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING PEAK DEEP MIXING
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF OUR AREA. A SHORT WAVE PASSING BY TO
THE NORTH WILL DRAG ANOTHER BATCH OF LIMITED MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A SURFACE TROUGH
ALSO WILL PROVIDE WEAK CONVERGENCE IN OUR NORTHWEST. SHORT RANGE
SOLUTIONS OF RAP AND HRRR HAVE ONCE AGAIN BEEN INSISTENT TONIGHT ON
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE OF HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...ALTHOUGH LESS COVERAGE
THAN EXPERIENCED YESTERDAY. SURFACE BASED CAPES APPEAR MOSTLY UNDER
1000 JOULES PER KILOGRAM LATER TODAY SO STORMS MAY HAVE A LITTLE
LESS OOMPH AS WELL. EVEN SO...WE WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IN OUR
NORTHWEST CORNER. ANY STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND ANOTHER QUIET AND MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW. RMCQUEEN
LONG TERM...
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN HOT...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH IS NUDGED EAST AHEAD OF
A DISTURBANCE PUSHING ONSHORE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S TO NEAR THE CENTURY MARK ON THE
CAPROCK WHILE LOCALES IN THE ROLLING PLAINS AND FAR SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE RESIDE IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 104-105 DEGREES.
LATE SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BEAR WATCHING IN TERMS OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL NEAR THE FAR SOUTHWEST PANHANDLE INTO THE
NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. ENERGY FROM THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DISTURBANCE...AT THIS TIME ROTATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SEND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE PLAINS. AT THE SAME TIME...A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL
ATTEMPT TO BEND EASTWARD ACROSS THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER. WHETHER
THIS ENHANCED MID-UPPER MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE LONE STAR STATE
WILL DEPEND ON PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER HIGH AS LATER SUNDAY LOOKS TO
BE THE TIME AT WHICH THIS FEATURE BEGINS RETROGRADING WESTWARD.
BELIEVE ENOUGH CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN SHOWN AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT
SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION ACROSS PARMER COUNTY...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SAID UNCERTAINTIES GOING FORWARD.
HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS TO BUILD WEST AND
NORTHWEST WHILE AMPLIFYING...THUS SHIFTING THE H85 THERMAL RIDGE
AXIS IN THE SAME DIRECTION AND KEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
90S LOCALLY. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM EASTERN CANADA BACK INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LOOKS TO KEEP SOME SEMBLANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE
AHEAD OF A SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. NWP NOW SUGGESTING THAT A PERIOD OF CONTINUED UPSLOPE FLOW
MAY THEREFORE BE IN THE OFFING FOR A PERIOD NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH
CONTINUED ENHANCED MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE UPPER HIGH.
HAVE KEPT CONDITIONS DRY FOR NOW AFTER SUNDAY EVENING GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILED SYNOPTIC EVOLUTION AND EXTENT/AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES WOULD BE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER RESULTS IF THIS
SCENARIO DOES INDEED PLAY OUT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 69 97 67 97 / 0 0 0 0
TULIA 70 98 69 98 / 10 0 0 0
PLAINVIEW 71 98 70 97 / 10 0 0 0
LEVELLAND 71 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
LUBBOCK 74 100 72 98 / 0 0 0 0
DENVER CITY 70 99 70 98 / 0 0 0 0
BROWNFIELD 71 99 71 98 / 0 0 0 0
CHILDRESS 76 104 75 103 / 0 0 0 0
SPUR 75 102 73 101 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 78 104 77 104 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
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