Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/05/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
818 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
SPEED MAX MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING IS AIDING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. THIS
BAND SHOULD PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS...BUT IS NOT PRODUCING
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF RAIN. ELSEWHERE SHOWERS AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ARE LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA. INSTABILITY IS LIMITED IN THIS
AREA...BUT IT IS STILL NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE COULD SEE A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN CWA.
THIS WOULD BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SPEED MAX BRINGING INCREASED
LIFT...BUT ANY ACTIVITY WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO CLEAR A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS DRIER AIR
ALOFT IS NOTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR
THIS TO WORK OVER THE REGION...BUT MANY AREAS SOUTH OF GERLACH TO
SUSANVILLE LINE MAY BE MOSTLY CLEAR BY MORNING. 20
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRIER
WEST FLOW RETURNS FOR MID WEEK, THEN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FOR THIS WEEKEND,
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
SHORT TERM...
THE BLM REPORTED THAT THE DODGE FIRE IN A REMOTE AREA OF NORTHEAST
LASSEN COUNTY HAD BURNED 3,500 ACRES AS OF NOON TODAY. ZEPHYR WIND
GUSTS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH SHOULD INCREASE SMOKE OUTPUT FROM THE DODGE FIRE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THIS FIRE
MAY REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WEST WINDS PREVAIL. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, SMOKE MAY SPREAD ACROSS GERLACH AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS LOVELOCK AND PYRAMID LAKE.
CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEATHER IMPULSE WHICH WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, TRENDS AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE AND
VIRGA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH TO
MONO COUNTY.
THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH EXPECTED. A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED, QUICK
MOVING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE THREAT
FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER JET CROSSING THE SIERRA OVER THE
TAHOE BASIN THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH
ACROSS PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
AND ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER, SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TIMING AND TRACK MAY CHANGE THE LOCATION, INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF THE STORM THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT (SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST). JCM
LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE A POTENT UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE DATA MAY AFFECT THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO FAST CELL MOTION AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE MAIN PRECIP CORES. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY AS STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH WIDESPREAD OUTDOOR
EVENTS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY, PARTICIPANTS
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD AND ENSURE A QUICK ACCESS TO
SAFE SHELTER BEFORE DANGEROUS STORMS ARRIVE.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON CELLS IN FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER, BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. SCATTERED CIRRUS AND SOME FLAT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 90
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY, AND SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO EMERGENCE AND SPREAD OF
ANY HOLDOVER LIGHTNING FIRES RESULTING FROM FRIDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
EVENT. MJD
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THRU WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO, AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE
DODGE FIRE MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND PRODUCE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM GERLACH NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER. ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD SPREAD SOUTH TO NEAR PYRAMID LAKE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, TYPICAL W-NW ZEPHYR TYPE BREEZES EXPECTED AT
AREA TERMINALS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z-04Z.
MJD
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
209 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DECREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED THIS
EVENING, WANING TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IS STILL AROUND, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS DROPPED DOWN TO AROUND 0.5-0.6". SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA. COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING, BUT IT WILL BE
PRETTY ISOLATED. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN CA LATE TUESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY AID IN KICKING OFF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER WITH HOT, DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. HOON
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY, THEN TRACKING INLAND ACROSS CA/NV FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACTS
FOR THE REGION WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES, WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS NERN
CA-NWRN NV AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LOW LEVELS RATHER DRY AND
FAST STEERING FLOW, THIS COULD BE A SET UP FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LIMITED RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY, FURTHER INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS LIKELY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA, WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, BUT DUE TO THE INHERENT
NATURE OF CLOSED LOWS VARYING IN LOCATION/TRACK WE WILL MAKE ONLY
INCREMENTAL INCREASES IN POPS AT THIS TIME, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY, A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY-MONDAY KEEPS THE
REGION IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR-
TYPE BREEZES AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MAIN TERMINALS THRU TUESDAY WITH TYPICAL
SW-W BREEZES WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE THRU 04Z THIS EVE EAST OF BRIDGEPORT-LOVELOCK AND NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUESDAY MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80, BUT LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF CELLS IMPACTING KRNO OR KTRK.
MJD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK IN THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE SIERRA. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE LIKELY
LIMITED (LAL 2) DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY. NORMAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR
BREEZES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA EACH DAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
IN OUR SIMULATIONS FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE LOWERED HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-SLOPES AND RIDGES. KEEPING AN EYE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR A POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING (LAL 3+), ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE AND A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT SHOWN IN OUR LONG RANGE SIMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASING BUT STILL LOW-MEDIUM. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU
THIS EVENING...AND WL CONTINUE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING
THIS TIME OVR NRN AND ERN CO. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. OVR THE FORECAST
AREA...MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE ERN
MTNS AFTER ABOUT 01Z.
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOMING SVR OR MARGINALLY SVR THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING OVR THE ERN PLAINS. BY MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE ENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER.
AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE DRIER AIR OVR THE AREA ON TUE...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH
MSTR AROUND FOR SOME ISOLD MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
...MONSOON RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE H5 CENTER SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH WY WED NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK SOME ISOLD TO CT
STORMS OVER THE MTS LATE WED...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...AND
THE WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING THE UPPER 90S BACK TO MOST OF SE
CO...ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN
MORE HOT AND DRY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE
HOT SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EWD
INTO TX...AND SW FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CO. THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO WRN CO AS A TROUGH MOVES ASHORE
OVER NRN CA...AND THEN TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE MTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH STRENGTHENS MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW CO. THE
ERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT STILL
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST...BRINGING OUR AREA BACK TO A DRY AND HOT SUMMER PATTERN.
BUT HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR IS DEBATABLE. THE GFS RETURNS US TO THIS
DRY AND HOT PATTERN AS SOON AS SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
TIL LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES MAKE IT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
A TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACNW...AND A RIDGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
DETERMINE DAILY POPS AND TEMPS. SO...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT THE TAF
SITES AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1042 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK QG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER SEEING THE LAST OF IT LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
PRESENT TIME THERE IS MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS THAN PRECIPITATION SO
SOLAR HEATING IS NOT DOING MUCH JUST YET. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA
IS SHOWING A FEW MORE BREAKS DEVELOPING RECENTLY SO THIS SHOULD
HELP GET CONVECTION ROLLING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS STILL
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN FROM THE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
PRETTY DECENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
WEATHER TREND FOR TODAY IS AN INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER LOW AND TROF ROTATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO FAR
WESTERN WYOMING LATER TODAY WHILE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROF WILL
SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK
TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH THIS TROF AND WILL AID TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST
UNDER AN INCH WILL INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED AS WELL. HI RES MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STORM STRENGTH
TODAY AS RAP REALLY DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHICH
APPEAR OVERDONE. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
700-1500J/KG ON THE PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES.
TROF AXIS SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEST SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHILE CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DECENT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 30 TO
50KT AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. EVEN A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER
SPELLS SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE DIVIDE AND HIGHER EAST
SLOPES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH LATER TNT OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE SO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
ON TUE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS DRIER...STABLE AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE MORNING...AND
SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE AN UPRIGHT LINE OF
T-STORMS CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD RACE SEWRD
ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS AS THE 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS BY. AS
THE SAYING GOES...BEWARE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT...THE PAST FEW DAYS
MODELS INDICATED COOLER TEMPS ON TUE. NOT SO ANYMORE. LATEST MOS
TEMP GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A 2-3 DEG C WARMUP OVER READINGS ON MON.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND GREATER SUNSHINE TWO
BIG REASONS FOR THE REVERSAL AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE 35-50KTS CROSS-BARRIER FLOW TUE MORNING. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MID/UPPER EAST SLOPE WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH. SHOULD SEE
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MIXING.
BY WED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY THE AIRMASS OVER
COLORADO. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY HIGH BASED GUSTY T-
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SHIFTING EAST OF CO. THE SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MODELS SHOW RACING E-SEWRD OVER THE NRN ROCKY
MTN REGION DURING THE THU/THU NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE RESULTING ZONAL
FLOW OVER NRN CO WILL FURTHER LOWER DEWPT/PW VALUES AND LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER
BY EVENING COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT RACE SEWRD ACROSS NERN CO.
ITS POSSIBLE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY COULD GENERATE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO...BUT THE
CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING APPEARS LOW DUE TO LOW BNDRY LAYER
MOISTURE.
BY FRI...W-NWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS SWLY WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT PLAINS. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO A LONG
FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH MODELS SHOW EXTENDING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NEWRD WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME UP OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRI EVENING AND OVER N-CNTRL/NERN CO ON SAT.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE AS INDICATED...COULD SEE SHOWER/T-
STORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM SW-TO-NE ACRS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE TAFS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. PREDICTED GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLIES ALSO SEEM OK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE FRONT RANGE URBAN AREAS AROUND MID
EVENING SO MAY CONSIDERING KEEPING A THUNDERSTORM THREAT LONGER IN
THE NEW ISSUANCE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN UTAH. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME GOOD BOOMERS DEVELOPING AROUND NOON TODAY ACROSS NE
UTAH AND NW COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS
IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT DECREASING AS THE
STORMINESS ENTERS A LESS FLASHY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL
PROFILE AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR. THE DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE THIS MORNING ALSO CAUSES CONCERN FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE...DYNAMICAL FORCES
WILL BE PRESENT...AND UPPER JET SUPPORT INCREASES.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF UTAH AND COLORADO TONIGHT
LEAVING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WY/UT/CO BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN EARLY TUESDAY AND
KEEP ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON TUESDAY AS SUNSHINE ABOUNDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE BEST LIFT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (MAYBE A STORM OR
TWO OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY). SURFACE WINDS BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS TOWARD THE
SRN PLAINS AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SURGES NORTH THROUGH
ARIZONA INTO UTAH. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES THE FAR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE PHASED WITH AN EJECTING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH. SATURDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR.
DRIER AIR MAY FOLLOW THE SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY AND STORM ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...MORE SUN MEANS WARMER TEMPS DURING MID
WEEK BUT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. COOLING TREND OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUING
BEYOND 09Z TOWARD THE WYOMING BORDER. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOWER VALLEY SPOTS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z.
STORMS WILL QUICKLY FIRE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...WITH HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER ERN UTAH AND MOVING EAST.
STRONG CELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH
CLEARING FROM THE WEST SPREADING EAST AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
WEATHER TREND FOR TODAY IS AN INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER LOW AND TROF ROTATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO FAR
WESTERN WYOMING LATER TODAY WHILE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROF WILL
SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK
TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH THIS TROF AND WILL AID TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST
UNDER AN INCH WILL INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED AS WELL. HI RES MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STORM STRENGTH
TODAY AS RAP REALLY DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHICH
APPEAR OVERDONE. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
700-1500J/KG ON THE PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES.
TROF AXIS SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEST SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHILE CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DECENT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 30 TO
50KT AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. EVEN A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER
SPELLS SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE DIVIDE AND HIGHER EAST
SLOPES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH LATER TNT OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE SO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
ON TUE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS DRIER...STABLE AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE MORNING...AND
SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE AN UPRIGHT LINE OF
T-STORMS CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD RACE SEWRD
ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS AS THE 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS BY. AS
THE SAYING GOES...BEWARE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT...THE PAST FEW DAYS
MODELS INDICATED COOLER TEMPS ON TUE. NOT SO ANYMORE. LATEST MOS
TEMP GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A 2-3 DEG C WARMUP OVER READINGS ON MON.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND GREATER SUNSHINE TWO
BIG REASONS FOR THE REVERSAL AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE 35-50KTS CROSS-BARRIER FLOW TUE MORNING. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MID/UPPER EAST SLOPE WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH. SHOULD SEE
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MIXING.
BY WED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY THE AIRMASS OVER
COLORADO. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY HIGH BASED GUSTY T-
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SHIFTING EAST OF CO. THE SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MODELS SHOW RACING E-SEWRD OVER THE NRN ROCKY
MTN REGION DURING THE THU/THU NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE RESULTING ZONAL
FLOW OVER NRN CO WILL FURTHER LOWER DEWPT/PW VALUES AND LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER
BY EVENING COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT RACE SEWRD ACROSS NERN CO.
ITS POSSIBLE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY COULD GENERATE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO...BUT THE
CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING APPEARS LOW DUE TO LOW BNDRY LAYER
MOISTURE.
BY FRI...W-NWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS SWLY WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT PLAINS. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO A LONG
FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH MODELS SHOW EXTENDING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NEWRD WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME UP OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRI EVENING AND OVER N-CNTRL/NERN CO ON SAT.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE AS INDICATED...COULD SEE SHOWER/T-
STORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM SW-TO-NE ACRS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS SPELLS HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 21Z-
02Z AND THEN DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. WITH PASSING SHOWERS COULD
RESULT IN ILS APPROACHES FOR A SHORT TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
TROF INTENSIFIES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS LA PLATA
AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A FLOODING THREAT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO NEXT 6 HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN
OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH. URBAN FLOODING
WAS REPORTED IN NATURITA EARLIER BUT AREAS FROM THE PARADOX VALLEY
AND SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN REACHES THE AREA. GUSTS TO 50 MPH
HAVE BEEN REACHED OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR NEAR GLENWOOD SPRINGS FROM
THE EAST AS COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY WEST TOWARD THE TAVAPUTS AREA. STILL ENOUGH ENERGY TO
FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS SO FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A SMALL AND TIGHT CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500-300MB DEFORMATION
ZONE WAS ROTATING ACROSS SW MESA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WAS MOVING NORTH AT 5-10 MPH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAS BEEN CAPTURED WELL IN THE NAM12.
IT WILL LIFT FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE PICEANCE BASIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER SOUTH OF THIS LINE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER ROTATION WAS WORKING NORTHWARD INTO SE UTAH ON
THE NOSE OF THE 35KT JET. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS FAVORING SE UTAH AND FAR SW COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS INTO
THIS EVENING.
THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST AS DIURNAL EFFECTS END...AND ALSO AS
LINGERING SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS DIMINISH.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGER ROTATION/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN UT THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
UT BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST UT/NORTHWEST CO ON MON...AND INTO SE WY MON
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE THE BETTER AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER LATE TONIGHT. AND WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE MORNING...THAT AREA WILL SEE A
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME DIURNAL AND TERRAIN
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE NORTH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE CALL FOR THE DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY MON EVENING
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MORE DRYING WILL HAVE
OCCURRED BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON TUE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE REGION.
MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND BRUSHING OUR FORECAST AREA WED
NIGHT/THU. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTERNOON. BUT SO FAR...MODELS HAVE INDICATED ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS PASSING WAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SAT FOR
A POTENTIALLY WET NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THEN WILL COOL FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN THE DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUING
BEYOND 09Z TOWARD THE WYOMING BORDER. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOWER VALLEY SPOTS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z.
STORMS WILL QUICKLY FIRE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...WITH HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER ERN UTAH AND MOVING EAST.
STRONG CELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH
CLEARING FROM THE WEST SPREADING EAST AFTER 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3AM MON MORNING. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ONE TIGHT ROTATION
LIFTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LARGER
LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THEY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION...RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALLY SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UT. THEREFORE FLASH
FLOODING...AS WELL AS DEBRIS AND MUD FLOWS ACROSS ROADWAYS...HIGH
FLOWS IN SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IN
NORMALLY DRY WASHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ALSO SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE+EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LOOKS MINIMAL AS
SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO FADE...WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS -SHRA
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE EARLY AND TRIM BACK OVERNIGHT POPS MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW...SOME ON THE STRONG SIDE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH AZ AND UT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER UT MOVING INTO
NW CO BY 12-15Z MON MORNING. AM PARTICULARLY CONCERNED BY THE
LATEST HIGH RES WRF AND HRRR RUNS...WHICH BOTH SHOW A STRONG BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP MOVING THROUGH SW-CENTRAL CO BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE. IN COORDINATION WITH KGJT AND KABQ HAVE EXPANDED OUR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN JUANS TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
CONTDVD...ALONG WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...THROUGH 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IF THE BANDED HEAVY
PRECIP GETS A DELAYED START...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW INTENSE THE PRECIP WILL BE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTION IS
GENERALLY LESS INTENSE. NEVERTHELESS...ANYONE PLANNING ON BEING IN
OR TRAVELING THROUGH THE MTS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT NEEDS TO BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SUDDEN SMALL STREAM RISES...FLOODED ROADWAYS...AND MUD OR
ROCK SLIDES IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE DURING THE
DAY...INTO SRN WY BY 00Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHEAR...THIS WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SERN PLAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HGWY 50
AND E OF I-25...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED LLVL
MOISTURE AND PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE HIGH TEMPS FROM TODAY...SO WILL SEE MAINLY TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S MON AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MON NIGHT...AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SERN
CO AND AN UPR TROF MOVES NORTHWARD INTO WY...THE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN
ACRS THE FORECAST SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON TUE AN
UPR RIDGE AXIS WL LIE FROM AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...
RESULTING IN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUE...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TUE NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO
ERN CO AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...THE NAM PRINTS OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ON WED THE UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVR CO WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY JUST SOME
ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THRU ERN CO IN THE EVENING
HOURS TO HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACRS THE PLAINS. ON THU THE
UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES THRU MT WY AND NRN CO. ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN IS EXPECTED
THU AFTERNOON...BUT THEN AS THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN CO BY THU EVENING.
FRI AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR CA...WITH AN UPR RIDGE BEING
OVR CO. MSTR STILL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE
DAY...WITH MAYBE JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
THEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ID AND UT...MONSOON MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN CO AGAIN WHICH WL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD
ACRS MT AND WY SAT NIGHT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE ERN
CO PLAINS. THEN BY SUN IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WL AGAIN BE
CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON MSTR...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 05Z...AND WILL KEEP A
VCSH MENTION AT KALS UNTIL 09Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...THOUGH
CIGS/VIS AT THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN VFR. ON MON...UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER EARLY TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z...WITH A THREAT OF CONVECTION AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 18Z-19Z INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL MVFR/BRIEF
IFR EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. 01Z-03Z...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORMS ON THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO KS
AFTER 03Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
537 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.
AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.
THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.
AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.
THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.
AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.
TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.
A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.
TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT- WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY...AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FCST AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT RGN OF A JET WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF FCST THIS
MORNING.
THE 12UTC RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AT 550 HPA AND 850HPA. AT
THE SFC...A CDFNT WAS FM NW OHIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY...LEAVING
THE FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF TDY. CURRENTLY TD ARE AROUND
60...WITH NOT MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS
UPSTREAM TD IN PA ARE IN SAME RANGE. SPC MESO ANAL HAS 150-250
J/KG OF CIN OVER FCA ATTM.
A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.
THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT. ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.
AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.
THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT. ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.
TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.
SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.
WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.
THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.
BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.
IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
828 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
00Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE PATTERN HAS
QUIETED DOWN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE ACTIVE WEATHER
OVER THE PAST WEEK. THE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW IS ROOTED WELL TO OUR
NORTH WITH TROUGHING ONLY EXTENDING DOWN TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES...AND A MORE ZONAL MID-LEVEL CONFIGURATION FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WAS A SCATTERING OF SEA-BREEZE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE I-10 CORRIDOR...BUT MOST OF THESE HAVE
QUICKLY FADED WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...AND HAVE BEEN
ABLE TO REMOVE ALL POPS FROM OUR LOCAL GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING.
THE ADVERTISED RETURN OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO A POSITION
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THIS POSITION AND HOLD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND ADDITIONAL AREAL
FLOODING HAS COME TO AN END...AND THE FLOOD WATCH THAT WAS IN
EFFECT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA NORTHWARD TO LEVY COUNTY HAS BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS OF 800 PM EDT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT FOR LARGE SCALE HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER...SEVERAL LOCAL
RIVERS REMAIN ABOVE FLOOD STAGE...INCLUDING THE ANCLOTE RIVER IN
PASCO COUNTY WHICH IS CURRENTLY IN MAJOR FLOOD. WE WILL BE
MONITORING THE FLOODING ALONG THESE RIVERS FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS
AT LEAST.
SO...RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GRIDS OVER THE
LANDMASS FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. MAY SEE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS LATE AT NIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS FEEBLE LAND-
BREEZES DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER MORE TYPICAL EARLY AUGUST DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. THE MORNING WILL START OUT QUIET WITH VERY LOW RAIN
CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES RISING THROUGH THE 80S. ONCE A WEAK SEA-
BREEZE ORGANIZES DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...THE CHANCES FOR A
FEW SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INLAND FROM THE BEACHES ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
STORM COVERAGE PEAKING AT 30-50% INLAND FROM THE I-75 CORRIDOR
AFTER 19-20Z. THE SCT STORMS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE INLAND ZONES
FOR A FEW HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING. JUST ANOTHER SUMMER DAY IN FLORIDA. IT IS NICE TO HAVE
THIS PATTERN BACK.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONLY CHANCE FOR A BRIEF CIG OR VIS RESTRICTION WILL
ACCOMPANY TYPICAL SCT AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR A BRIEF STORM ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE AT KLAL/KPGD/KFMY AND KRSW.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH SEAS LESS 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE
NIGHT OR EARLY MORNING HOURS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND LIGHTNING.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SEVERAL RIVERS AND STREAMS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA REMAIN
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE. MAJOR FLOODING CONTINUES ON THE ANCLOTE RIVER
WITH MINOR FLOODING ON THE HILLSBOROUGH RIVER...ALAFIA RIVER...LITTLE
MANATEE RIVER...MYAKKA RIVER...AND CYPRESS CREEK. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED. PLEASE SEE SPECIFIC RIVER FORECASTS PROVIDED IN
THE RIVER FLOOD STATEMENTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 77 91 78 90 / 0 30 10 30
FMY 76 93 76 93 / 10 40 10 20
GIF 75 94 76 93 / 10 60 20 50
SRQ 75 90 76 89 / 0 20 10 20
BKV 72 93 73 91 / 10 30 10 30
SPG 78 91 79 90 / 0 20 10 20
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE. TO OUR
SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS OF SHIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.
ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
DID JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. WE ARE SEEING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TOWARD WESTERN CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY AS OF 4 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR
MULTIPLE RUNS...BUT IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND COAST AND
ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TOTALS THAN THE TRENDS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LEVY/CITRUS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
JUST BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. EITHER WAY...THE WORST SEEMS TO BE OVER
FOR MOST PLACES...AND OTHER THAN A FEW SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN LET THE DRYING OUT PROCESS BEGUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE LOOSING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT...AND THE EXPLICIT MODEL QPF LINES UP AS WELL.
THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE...NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN A FEEBLE SEA-
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE
A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SCATTERING
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND...IS THAT SOIL
MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING IT EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES
ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS.
ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE
DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MORE TOWARD
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS (WHICH STILL HAVE A
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK AS THROUGH THEY
WILL BE IMPROVING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AROUND KPIE/KTPA...AND
THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY. MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 78 90 / 30 30 10 40
FMY 75 92 76 93 / 20 40 40 40
GIF 73 91 76 94 / 20 40 40 50
SRQ 77 88 76 90 / 20 30 10 20
BKV 75 89 72 92 / 40 40 30 50
SPG 77 89 79 90 / 30 30 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
MARINE...OGLESBY/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING/LAMARRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT...SFC/RADAR ANLYS PLACES SURFACE LOW CENTER A LITTLE BIT
EAST OF KLCQ/LAKE CITY AND LIFTING NEWD AS OF 10AM/15UTC. A LARGE
SWATH OF CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SSW/SW OF THE LOW ALONG A SFC
TROUGH...AND CONTINUES TO INUNDATE THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
FROM THE BIG BEND SWD THROUGH CAPE CORAL. RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WELL INLAND ACROSS LAKE AND ADJACENT FAR WRN ORANGE/SEMINOLE AND NW
OSCEOLA/VOLUSIA COS. A LARGE/RADIALLY STRIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CANOPY EXTENDS EVEN FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THINNING
SOME OVER THE TREASURE COAST/ADJACENT ATLC.
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN PWATS BETWEEN THE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH FLOW LOW (2.5"+) AND DRIER AIR TO THE EAST
(1.5 TO 1.6") SHOWN BY BOTH MORNING RAOBS AND TPW IMAGERY. A DECENT
DRY SLUG SHOWS UP IN THE H95-H65 LAYER AT XMR/MFL. NEAR SATURATION
TO THE N/W. RAOB AND PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW STOUT SW-SSW SFC-3KM
LAYER AVERAGED WINDS OF 25-30KT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...ALL METAR SITES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15KT SUSTAINED ATTM.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE SFC LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE AND DRAGGING THE SLUG OF SATURATED AIR EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NORMALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT
HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE REGIME...SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...VIA
CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCD WITH THE LOW AND/OR A PSEUDO WCSB. FY IN THE
OINTMENT OF SORTS IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS "STUNG"
OUR POP/QPF FORECASTS OFTEN OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES...WHEREIN A
HIGH-PWAT AIR MASS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER WRN FL FAILS TO
DO MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO FOLLOW THIS LINE OF
THINKING WITH RATHER PALTRY QPF MAINLY OVER THE NRN 2/3 CWA...BUT
PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF LGT-MDT RAIN SHOWERS.
PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGH POPS (70 NORTH/50 SOUTH) OF THE CURRENT FCST
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH
COULD MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN/URBAN FLOODING THREAT OVER THE NRN/WRN
CWA (I.E. LAKE CO)...WHERE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN
THUS FAR. WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR
THE NRN INTERIOR BY A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN THE ALREADY LOW NOS AS
THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN READINGS THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...FROM LEE EWD THROUGH THE ISM-MCO-SFC-DAB CORRIDOR...THIS
AREAS LOOKS TO BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS MOST OF
THE DAY THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER FASTER MOVING +SHRA/
TS PSBL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z. AN EVEN BETTER CHC FOR DIURNAL TS
EXPECT FROM TIX-MLB-SUA AS THINNER DEBRIS CLOUDS/BETTER SFC HEATING
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SSW-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT...
WITH SEAS 1.5-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE...15-20KT/4-5FT
IN A SMALL AREA WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA CO...WHERE A CAUTIONARY STMT
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTN. CURRENT GRIDS AND CWF LOOK FINE.
&&
FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/
TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.
TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.
SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.
THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 73 90 75 / 70 40 60 30
MCO 87 74 91 74 / 70 40 50 30
MLB 91 74 90 75 / 60 30 40 30
VRB 91 71 91 74 / 50 30 30 20
LEE 86 76 91 76 / 70 40 60 30
SFB 86 74 91 75 / 70 40 60 30
ORL 86 75 91 76 / 70 40 50 30
FPR 91 72 91 74 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE REGION
TONIGHT. AN INLAND TROUGH WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANY MARINE-BASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT IT IS INTERESTING THAT BOTH
THE H3R AND RAP SHOW ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING
NEAR THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHAT PROCESS BOTH MODELS ARE LATCHING ONTO TO REGENERATE
CONVECTION...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
LOWS FROM THE LOWER-MID 70S INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT
THE BEACHES/DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON LOOK ON TRACK. CONDITIONS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK GENERALLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT NORTH OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS FLORIDA. SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF AN INLAND
TROUGH...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE SEA BREEZE. MAINTAINED LOW
END CHANCE POPS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH...CLOSER TO THE DEEPER MOISTURE. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALL
NIGHT...BUT THINKING IS THAT AFTER THE EVENING HOURS...THERE IS A
DECENT CHANCE IT WILL BE RAIN FREE. BACKED OFF JUST A BIT ON HIGH
TEMPERATURES BASED ON RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...BUT STILL THINK MID TO
UPPER 90S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE COAST. STILL EXPECT HEAT
INDICES TO REACH NEAR 105 FOR A FEW HOURS IN MANY AREAS...BUT STILL
BELOW THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 110 DEGREES. LOWS WILL BE RATHER
WARM...MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE STARTS TO DROP INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TREND SLOWLY UPWARDS. MAINTAINED CHANCE
POPS MAINLY DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS CONVECTION HAS
A DECENT CHANCE TO DEVELOP ALONG SEA BREEZE AND INLAND TROUGH WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. WITH A 20 TO 30
KNOT SOUTHWEST TO WEST LOW LEVEL JET AND THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVING THROUGH...MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS ALL THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
THREAT FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE HIGHLY INFLUENCED
BY COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER AND LIKELY GREATER PRECIPITATION
COVERAGE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT LOWER THAN THOSE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY LOWER TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO A DEVELOPING EAST COAST TROUGH ON FRIDAY COMBINED WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...THE INLAND SURFACE TROUGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL LIKELY PROVIDE EVEN A BETTER THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH
MORE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION AROUND...HIGH SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 80S AT THE COAST TO THE LOWER 90S INLAND.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT
PUSHING TOWARD THE SC/GA COAST LATE SATURDAY. DECENT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. DRIER HIGH PRESSURE MAY ATTEMPT TO
BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE MODELS` DRY
BIAS BEHIND WARM SEASON COLD FRONTS WE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ON SUNDAY. BETTER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE POSSIBLE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. DESPITE HIGH DEWPOINTS...FOG SEEMS UNLIKELY AT EITHER
TERMINAL DUE TO PERSISTENT LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. MID LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION TOMORROW WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AT KSAV
TOMORROW MORNING...AND KCHS BEGINNING EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ALONG COASTAL GA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SEABREEZE. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KSAV...A THUNDERSTORM PASSING NEAR
THE TERMINAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAIN CONCERNS ARE OCCASIONAL
REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND/OR CEILING DUE TO SHOWERS AND TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH IMPACTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANY DAY OR AT ANY
TIME...GREATER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY
TO A SURGE OF S/SW WINDS FOR SEVERAL HOURS TONIGHT. CAPPED WINDS
AT 15-20 KT/SEAS AT 4-5 FT...BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 KT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY OVER AMZ350 AND AMZ374.
A TYPICAL PATTERN EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
FEATURING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND BY NOCTURNAL SURGES. AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE PROBABILITY FOR SCA CONDITIONS
COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM. OUTSIDE
THUNDERSTORMS...SEAS OF 2-4 FT SHOULD PREVAIL...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/CEB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE MESO-ANALYSIS STILL INDICATED A STRONG PRECIPITABLE WATER
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE TO
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY SET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS
TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL YIELD HOT
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
TO ENHANCE ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY INITIATE STORMS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ACTING
ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. GFS INDICATING UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE
LOWER 90S END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM MOS AND HRRR PLUS CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING IFR
CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z. STRONG HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE THE CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
840 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO ITS
NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHER POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER POPS AS YOU HEAD NORTH. UPDATED ZONES SHOULD BE OUT BY 900
PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
TONIGHT, WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START OUT
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WORK TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON TONIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED WELL NORTH OF WHERE THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS INDICATED, SO THE FACT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR COUNTIES DOES NOT PRECLUDE THAT SHOWERS
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN TO MATTOON AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SPRINGFIELD TO SHELBYVILLE
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
WILL START OUT THE EVENING GRIDS WILL MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MAY ADJUST POPS UP AS LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS WARRANT. DESPITE THE DRY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TONIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP REDEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS EXPANDING NORTH TO AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CANTON TO LINCOLN TO MATTOON.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT
DEVELOPS UNDER LIGHT ENE FLOW. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE POINTED
TOWARD LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-74, WITH
UPPER 60S IN SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT LATER
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT WILL A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AS THE
ENERGY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST INTO INDIANA. THE
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND OF TRACKING
THE LOW ACROSS IL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
ALSO CONTINUE TO PROJECT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WILL RAMP
UP TO LIKELY, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-70 AS THE LOW
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF STATE HWY 50. HEAVY PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-70, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.8". WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY MAY HELP PREVENT FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO, A DRIER TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS HAS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN IL, WITH HEIGHT RISES
HELPING HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MORNING COULD DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN IL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI EVENING. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 FOR NOW.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY, THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IL SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING IT GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES,
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PUSH THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL IL. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SPI AND
DEC THRU ABOUT 13Z WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF
ANY IMPACT ON OPERATIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT AND TRENDING INTO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON WED
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT ARE CAUSING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
A CAPE AXIS THAT APPEARS TO FOLLOW HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING
VALUES TO THE EAST...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS SHAKY AS TO THE TRACK AND COVERAGE OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MODEL TRENDS LATELY SEEM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
955 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH ON WHAT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS STRUGGLING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LEADING LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...THE 04/23Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF
THE ONGOING SITUATION SO WILL LEAN ON THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SOLUTION KEEPS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT DRY...SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THAT WAY. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PICKING UP TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY...BUT SEEING
VERY LITTLE HINTS OF THAT OCCURRING TO THE WEST CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE...WILL TREND DRIER BUT WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SPOTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE A
RELATIVE LULL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW, SO WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW.
DO EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINDED TO OUR WESTERN CWA ROUGHLY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT MOST HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER
80S.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
AS WE ENTER LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SLOW MOVING
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER, PARTICULARLY
OF NOTE WILL BE A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE IN THE 2 - 2.5 RANGE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THIS TIME, 1.5
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL
SETUP, RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS, AND A WPC SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ELECTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH JKL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO FALL ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT/1
AM CDT.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PUSH ON OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND IN ITS WAKE, A BIT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE RAINS FROM
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THIS DRY TREND WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE
LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SET BACK
UP ACROSS TEXAS BY THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FLAT, THUS, THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS MID-LEVEL VORT MAXES ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
IN THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERAL WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FIRST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ONE ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS ONE THAT FAVORS ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND THEN RACING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IT IS REALLY NOT ALL THAT
SURPRISING GIVEN THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY THERE, AND WE MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EVENTUAL MCS TRACK SETS UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WITH LOW-MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPS LOOKS
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH AND
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. LOW TO MID 80S LOOK LIKELY FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS WELL, GIVEN THAT WE`RE EXPECTING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE AREA. IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LESS,
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PACKING STRONG WINDS AND IFR VSBYS WILL PASS
THROUGH KSDF AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS LINE MAY PERSIST EAST
INTO LEXINGTON...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS BEFORE ADDING MORE
THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...CONFIDENCE
LOWERS QUITE A BIT IN WHAT MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET GOING
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE PLAYED DOWN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER THIS
INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT...GETTING INTO KSDF OR KBWG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KWBG OR KLEX.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT
OVERNIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KJD
SHORT TERM.....BJS
LONG TERM......MJ
AVIATION.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ENDED UP ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BEEN WAITING ON DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT DOWN THERE...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN STUBBORN. DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY SEE 100 TO 105
HEAT INDICES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL NOT ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR IT AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY...SO WE MAY NOT
SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IN A WET PERIOD IS RATHER HIGH AS A MID /UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...SO CANNOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES...AND
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...SO A SOMEWHAT
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY.
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS RATHER
MURKY...BUT IN GENERAL FEEL THAT DRIER IS BETTER. THERE WILL BE A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...BUT THE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS
QUITE WEAK...SO IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAMP UP A BIT FROM THE WEST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MORE THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GENERAL THEME
IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
PAIR OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN/ NOW RESERVES
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH MEANS THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THURSDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD. HOWEVER...THEY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE IN SE MISSOURI.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
HIGH...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS QPF AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20S OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE UNREALISTIC
AND IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH MOST PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY...IN LINE WITH THE GFS CAMP.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL BRING BACK SMALL POPS...STARTING IN SOUTHWEST
IL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IS ALSO FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
DIURNAL CU WILL DISPERSE SOON WITH LOSS OF FUEL. SOME MID OR HIGH
SCATTERED BLOW OVER CLOUD MAY IMPACT MAINLY KCGI...OTHERWISE MOCLEAR
NITE WITH MAYBE TEMPORARY MVFR PATCHES OF FOG AT FOG PRONE KCGI.
DIURNAL CU AGAIN TMRW WITH SIMILAR BLOW OVER HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE.
POPS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO MENTION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ENDED UP ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BEEN WAITING ON DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT DOWN THERE...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN STUBBORN. DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY SEE 100 TO 105
HEAT INDICES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL NOT ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR IT AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY...SO WE MAY NOT
SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IN A WET PERIOD IS RATHER HIGH AS A MID /UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...SO CANNOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES...AND
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...SO A SOMEWHAT
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY.
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS RATHER
MURKY...BUT IN GENERAL FEEL THAT DRIER IS BETTER. THERE WILL BE A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...BUT THE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS
QUITE WEAK...SO IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAMP UP A BIT FROM THE WEST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MORE THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GENERAL THEME
IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
PAIR OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN/ NOW RESERVES
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH MEANS THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THURSDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD. HOWEVER...THEY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE IN SE MISSOURI.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
HIGH...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS QPF AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20S OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE UNREALISTIC
AND IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH MOST PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY...IN LINE WITH THE GFS CAMP.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL BRING BACK SMALL POPS...STARTING IN SOUTHWEST
IL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IS ALSO FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSRA WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE A CONCERN. RIGHT NOW WILL JUST INSERT
PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT KCGI AND KEEP THE OTHER SITES VFR. THERE
ARE HINTS OF A TANGIBLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL
FILTER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
119 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS MADE IT ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE TN
BORDER PER LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER TODAY HAVE INTRODUCED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES FOR LATE TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN OHIO AND NOT
MOVING INTO KY UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO VERY LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN MODELED. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
INTO AT LEAST FLEMING COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO TO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD
GRIDS. HAVE UPLOADED THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO LATE TODAY...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE. AS SUCH WILL CARRY
VCTS IN THE SYM TAF FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL AND WILL NOT
EVEN WARRANT VCTS IN TAFS SOUTH OF SYM. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR...AND ANY
CLOUD WILL MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE SIMILAR
OR LESS THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST TAF SITES REMAINING VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SME WHERE FOG SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A TIME AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAT INDEX AT KPAH IS 99 AT NOON...BUT
FIGURE THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT A BIT EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD 100+
HEAT INDICES MAINLY IN WEST KENTUCKY...AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR IT.
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO PUSH THE ZONE OF MOST LIKELY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. VEERED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
I-64 CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE FOCUS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
IN A ZONE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ALOT OF CONVECTION EVEN IN
THAT AREA...SO ONLY USED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGHS A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT AVOID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 HEAT
INDICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
A FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BY 00Z
SHOULD RUN ALONG ROUTE 13 AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER (NW KY/SW IN).
MODELS SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA THOUGH MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG
POSSIBLE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LINGER POPS
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS ORGANIZE AND MOVE
FARTHER SSE THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AFTER 02/03Z THE MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY...AT LEAST UNTIL TOWARD DAY BREAK TUE UP
AROUND SW INDIANA. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH POPS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY A S/WV RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF WEST KY DOWN TOWARD THE MO
BOOTHEEL MAY REMAIN DRY. THEN POPS RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS MOVES ESE AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF CAUGHT ON
FASTER...AND CONTINUES TO (IT SEEMS) HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE
TRICKY NW FLOW EVENTS WITH RESPECT TO BEST MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND
QPF. THE NAM...RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
INCONSISTENT. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS AN UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV COULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WORKS AS WELL WITH MODELS PROJECTING PW`S RISING BACK TOWARD THE
2" RANGE. TIME FRAME OF INTEREST WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT EXACTLY CONSISTENT ON
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LINGERING AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY
BUT THINK THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST...MAINLY THE
MORNING. ONCE THAT WAVE DEPARTS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING YET ANOTHER WAVE DOWN THE PIKE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FLIRTING WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THAT IDEA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE TYPE POPS AND WAIT FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL WAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND RECENT RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THAT. IN
FACT...THE SFC PATTERN ON SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN EXTREMELY MESSY WITH HARDLY ANY AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THIS HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WHICH IS FAIRLY TRICKY TO RESOLVE AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THAT ACTUALLY WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH ANY POTENTIAL ENERGY RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF THAT ENERGY IS
ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. RIGHT
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT IT MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSRA WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE A CONCERN. RIGHT NOW WILL JUST INSERT
PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT KCGI AND KEEP THE OTHER SITES VFR. THERE
ARE HINTS OF A TANGIBLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL
FILTER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO PUSH THE ZONE OF MOST LIKELY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. VEERED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
I-64 CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE FOCUS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
IN A ZONE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ALOT OF CONVECTION EVEN IN
THAT AREA...SO ONLY USED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGHS A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT AVOID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 HEAT
INDICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
A FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BY 00Z
SHOULD RUN ALONG ROUTE 13 AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER (NW KY/SW IN).
MODELS SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA THOUGH MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG
POSSIBLE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LINGER POPS
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS ORGANIZE AND MOVE
FARTHER SSE THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AFTER 02/03Z THE MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY...AT LEAST UNTIL TOWARD DAY BREAK TUE UP
AROUND SW INDIANA. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH POPS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY A S/WV RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF WEST KY DOWN TOWARD THE MO
BOOTHEEL MAY REMAIN DRY. THEN POPS RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS MOVES ESE AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF CAUGHT ON
FASTER...AND CONTINUES TO (IT SEEMS) HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE
TRICKY NW FLOW EVENTS WITH RESPECT TO BEST MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND
QPF. THE NAM...RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
INCONSISTENT. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS AN UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV COULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WORKS AS WELL WITH MODELS PROJECTING PW`S RISING BACK TOWARD THE
2" RANGE. TIME FRAME OF INTEREST WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT EXACTLY CONSISTENT ON
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LINGERING AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY
BUT THINK THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST...MAINLY THE
MORNING. ONCE THAT WAVE DEPARTS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING YET ANOTHER WAVE DOWN THE PIKE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FLIRTING WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THAT IDEA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE TYPE POPS AND WAIT FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL WAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND RECENT RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THAT. IN
FACT...THE SFC PATTERN ON SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN EXTREMELY MESSY WITH HARDLY ANY AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THIS HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WHICH IS FAIRLY TRICKY TO RESOLVE AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THAT ACTUALLY WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH ANY POTENTIAL ENERGY RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF THAT ENERGY IS
ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. RIGHT
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT IT MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS MADE IT ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE TN
BORDER PER LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER TODAY HAVE INTRODUCED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES FOR LATE TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN OHIO AND NOT
MOVING INTO KY UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO VERY LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN MODELED. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
INTO AT LEAST FLEMING COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO TO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD
GRIDS. HAVE UPLOADED THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BROUGHT SOME IFR OR LOWER
VIS/CIG INTO THE SME AND SJS SITES WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT SME
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING BY 1230Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO MAKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF VCTS IN THE SYM TAF AFTER 21Z. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
THE SITES...THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AS IT
DROPS TOWARD THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN MODELED. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
INTO AT LEAST FLEMING COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO TO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD
GRIDS. HAVE UPLOADED THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BROUGHT SOME IFR OR LOWER
VIS/CIG INTO THE SME AND SJS SITES WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT SME
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING BY 1230Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO MAKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF VCTS IN THE SYM TAF AFTER 21Z. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
THE SITES...THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AS IT
DROPS TOWARD THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
LIKELY ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAWN. ACCORDINGLY...
BROUGHT SOME IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIG INTO THE SME AND SJS SITES WITH
MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT SYM...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. ALL THE FOG
WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR
THIS...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF VCTS IN THE SYM TAF AFTER 21Z. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE WSW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AS IT DROPS TOWARD THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CYC NW FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO DOMINATING THE UPR LKS. UPSTREAM 12Z
RAOBS AT INL/YPL SHOW SOME FAIRLY DEEP MSTR...WITH H85-7 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C. WITH LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW
AND H85 CAA /12Z H85 TEMPS WERE 11C AT GRB/APX BUT ONLY 3C AT
YPL/...BKN LO CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV NOTED ON WV IMAGERY PASSING OVER NE
LK SUP/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...BUT INTENSITY/
COVERAGE OF THESE HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SOME CAPPING AOA H7 AS SHOWN
ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB AND RUC ANALYSIS SNDGS FOR SITES IN THE CWA. THE
CAA AND CLD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPS BLO NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS AND POPS.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY ONGOING SHOWERS EARLY TO TEND TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV TO THE NE. SOME OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW SLIDING SEWD THRU MANITOBA WL
ARRIVE DURING THE NGT AND RESULT IN MORE ISOLD SHOWERS. LINGERING
CYC FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST...CYC NW H85 FLOW WL MAINTAIN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE UPR 40S AT MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS H85
TEMPS DIP TO ARND 6C.
TUE...ALTHOUGH MOIST CYC H85 FLOW WL PERSIST...MODELS SHOW ARRIVAL
OF DNVA/FAIRLY SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING SHRTWV DOMINATING...WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN. SO ANY MRNG SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME
DESPITE THE DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY ENHANCE PCPN CHCS.
EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH LINGERING LO CLDS AND H85
TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE THAT WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE SCENTRAL...WITH MAINLY 60S CLOSER TO LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATUES AND A FEW SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN A
SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSES UPPER MI
SHOULD END BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INCREASED DRYING AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE. THE SFC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS A SFC
RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN CWA. WHILE
PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING...INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE 40S
GIVEN THE OVERALL COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL
COLDEST SPOTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR WEST.
HAVE STEERED CLEAR OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW AS ANOTHER WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT YET
ANOTHER SUBLTE TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA
COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FROM THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A WEAK LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE...AND A LAKE MI/GREEN BAY LAKE BREEZE THAT
SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET WILL INDUCE MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MOST AGRESSIVE. IT APPEARS ANY
NORTHERN CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO TRACK WELL EAST ACROSS THE CWA
AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI
AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
OCCUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK. SIMPLY PUT...THE
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. IN FACT...THE 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A STACKED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA AT 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LAGGING BEGIND A SFC
TROUGH JUST EAST OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM CANNOT
CHOSE WHICH OF THE OTHER TWO TO FOLLOW...WITH IT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF THU INTO FRI...AND THE GFS SAT INTO SUN. MOST OF THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE ECWMF LEAVING BEHIND THE SW EXTENT OF THURSDAYS TROUGH
IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
STILL HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR MOST DAYS UNTIL THINGS WORK
THEMSELVES OUT IN THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS TO LINGER THIS FCST PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GRT LKS WL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST CYC NW FLOW ARND LO PRES
NEAR HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA THIS AFTN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LYR. CIGS
MAY DROP INTO THE HI END MVFR RANGE LATE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL COOLING AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THAT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE -SHRA OVERNGT. EVEN IF CIGS DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY LATE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LLVL DRYING WL ALLOW A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES BY MID/LATE MRNG ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.
LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.
MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.
WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1203 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CDT MON AUG 03 2015
AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 18Z MONDAY ROUTINE TAF ISSUANCE.
PREVIOUS UPDATE DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015
INTERIM FORECAST GRIDDED/PRODUCT UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS
SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS (SKY, TEMPERATURE,
DEWPOINT, WEATHER, ETC...) FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING AND SHARPENING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT/
BOUNDARY POISED NORTH OF A CEDAR SPRINGS TO EMINENCE MISSOURI LINE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ZONE OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE ZONE OF INSTABILITY AND
OVERTURNING OF THETA-E AIR WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
(THUNDERSTORMS) GIVEN THE CAPPING/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI.
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS GRADIENT
ZONE, SO DID A 20-50% BLEND WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
EXPLICIT HRRR AND CONSOLIDATED MODEL BLENDS. THIS STILL KEEPS HEAT
INDEX VALUES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE OVERALL WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TODAY AND BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION THIS WEEK. WE
WILL SEE ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES AND DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH SO THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES...MAYBE
MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
KANSAS CITY AREA WHICH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS AREA TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS
COMPLEX COULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS LATER TODAY.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG A FORT SCOTT TO SPRINGFIELD
TO WEST PLAINS LINE AND NORTHWARD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE IN
A 20 PERCENT POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS THIS AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK TODAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH
THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS LLJ AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WILL DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI AREA WITH A MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS GOING STARTING TUESDAY. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION UP AND OVER THE FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING AND MATERIALIZED
INSTABILITY. THE THREAT AGAIN WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.
WPC HAS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR A SLIGHT RISK ON WEDNESDAY. IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT AND LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT NEAR THAT FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.
OVERALL AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND TAPERING OFF
TOWARDS ARKANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
THE GFS HOTTER AND DRIER FOR THE OZARKS AND THE ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE "RING OF FIRE" WEATHER PATTERN NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015
SIMILAR TO THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION, WILL CONTINUE VFR CONDITIONS AT
KSGF, KJLN, AND KBBG. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE BROKEN 7-9KFT AGL
CEILINGS IN NORTHWEST AR WILL SPREAD INTO KBBG AND KSGF, BUT
HINTED AT FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS BETWEEN 5-7 KFT AGL NEAR THESE
TAF LOCATIONS. CIRRUS WILL BE THE COMMON THREAD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MEAN WIND CHANGES IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
(MAINLY 170 TO 270 DEGREE RANGE IN DIRECTION). ISOLATED CONVECTION
POTENTIAL OVER AR/OK MAY PROVIDE BRIEF VFR CEILINGS, BUT GIVEN THE
LIMITED COVERAGE, DID NOT NOT ACCOUNT FOR IT IN THIS ISSUANCE.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WFO PAH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...WFO PAH/SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2015
...Update to Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The overall weather is beginning to shift today and become more
active and unsettled for the Missouri Ozarks region this week. We
will see one more very warm day today with highs back in the lower
to middle 90s. Humidity values and dew points are not
exceptionally high so the heat index this afternoon will be about
a few degrees warmer than the actual air temperatures...maybe
middle to possibly upper 90s.
There is currently a weakening complex of convection near the
Kansas City area which is moving southeastward. HiRes models
continue to show this area to further weaken and dissipate. This
complex could leave an outflow boundary across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks later today.
The HRRR and the 4KM WRF has been indicating this potential for
some isolated to widely scattered redevelopment of convection this
afternoon and evening...mainly along a Fort Scott to Springfield
to West Plains line and northward. With that said...will leave in
a 20 percent pop for these areas for a few afternoon
thunderstorms. There may be just enough instability for an
isolated strong storm or two with wind gusts up to 50 mph and
small hail up to nickel size as the main threat. SPC has this area
highlighted in a marginal risk today for this potential.
A low level jet will develop later tonight and may interact with
this stalled out frontal boundary that will be somewhere located
across northern and central Missouri tonight. This LLJ and
boundary interacting will develop additional scattered convection
late tonight across the central Missouri area with a movement to
the southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The more active weather pattern gets going starting Tuesday. The
first of several upper level waves moves out across the Central
Plains into the Missouri Ozarks region up and over the flat upper
level ridge that will be located across the southwestern U.S. Will
have to continue to monitor trends for a few strong to marginally
severe storms possible depending on timing and materialized
instability. The threat again would be isolated damaging wind
gusts and small hail. Thunderstorm chances increases late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night from west to east across the Ozarks.
Showers and storms will be likely and linger into Wednesday as
this will be a slow moving system.
WPC has the area along and northwest of I-44 highlighted in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and the entire area
for a slight risk on Wednesday. If training of storms
occur...there will be a limited flash flooding threat especially
for the northern half of the area.
The frontal boundary will be stalled out and linger in the area
through the middle of the week. Another strong mid level wave will
move across the area Thursday night into early Friday. There will
also be a stout low level jet Thursday night which will enhance
convection development near that front across central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks.
Overall average rainfall from Tuesday through Friday will be
about 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. The heaviest
rainfall appears to be across central Missouri and tapering off
towards Arkansas border. Temperatures will be slightly cooler mid
to end of the week with the added cloud cover and rain
chances...highs in the middle to upper 80s.
The forecast models show the upper level ridge will try to
build back across the southern Plains region by next weekend with
the GFS hotter and drier for the Ozarks and the ECMWF still
keeping the "ring of fire" weather pattern near Central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. With this forecast update...will maintain
increasing temperatures into next weekend and slight chances for
storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. Winds to veer
to the SW-W with the approach of a weakening frontal boundary this
morning...then shift back to the south tonight. Isolated
convection will be possible over central/south central this
afternoon but coverage will be too limited to mention in the
KSGF/KBBG terminals.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Runnels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2015
...Weather Pattern Becoming More Unsettled and Stormy This
Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The overall weather is beginning to shift today and become more
active and unsettled for the Missouri Ozarks region this week. We
will see one more very warm day today with highs back in the lower
to middle 90s. Humidity values and dew points are not
exceptionally high so the heat index this afternoon will be about
a few degrees warmer than the actual air temperatures...maybe
middle to possibly upper 90s.
There is currently a weakening complex of convection near the
Kansas City area which is moving southeastward. HiRes models
continue to show this area to further weaken and dissipate. This
complex could leave an outflow boundary across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks later today.
The HRRR and the 4KM WRF has been indicating this potential for
some isolated to widely scattered redevelopment of convection this
afternoon and evening...mainly along a Fort Scott to Springfield
to West Plains line and northward. With that said...will leave in
a 20 percent pop for these areas for a few afternoon
thunderstorms. There may be just enough instability for an
isolated strong storm or two with wind gusts up to 50 mph and
small hail up to nickel size as the main threat. SPC has this area
highlighted in a marginal risk today for this potential.
A low level jet will develop later tonight and may interact with
this stalled out frontal boundary that will be somewhere located
across northern and central Missouri tonight. This LLJ and
boundary interacting will develop additional scattered convection
late tonight across the central Missouri area with a movement to
the southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The more active weather pattern gets going starting Tuesday. The
first of several upper level waves moves out across the Central
Plains into the Missouri Ozarks region up and over the flat upper
level ridge that will be located across the southwestern U.S. Will
have to continue to monitor trends for a few strong to marginally
severe storms possible depending on timing and materialized
instability. The threat again would be isolated damaging wind
gusts and small hail. Thunderstorm chances increases late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night from west to east across the Ozarks.
Showers and storms will be likely and linger into Wednesday as
this will be a slow moving system.
WPC has the area along and northwest of I-44 highlighted in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and the entire area
for a slight risk on Wednesday. If training of storms
occur...there will be a limited flash flooding threat especially
for the northern half of the area.
The frontal boundary will be stalled out and linger in the area
through the middle of the week. Another strong mid level wave will
move across the area Thursday night into early Friday. There will
also be a stout low level jet Thursday night which will enhance
convection development near that front across central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks.
Overall average rainfall from Tuesday through Friday will be
about 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. The heaviest
rainfall appears to be across central Missouri and tapering off
towards Arkansas border. Temperatures will be slightly cooler mid
to end of the week with the added cloud cover and rain
chances...highs in the middle to upper 80s.
The forecast models show the upper level ridge will try to
build back across the southern Plains region by next weekend with
the GFS hotter and drier for the Ozarks and the ECMWF still
keeping the "ring of fire" weather pattern near Central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. With this forecast update...will maintain
increasing temperatures into next weekend and slight chances for
storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Outflow
boundaries entering from the north do bear watching for Monday
afternoon evening as a focus of isolated shower/storm development,
but confidence is much too low at this point to suggest any TAF
sites will be involved. Light winds the rest of the overnight
hours will give way to southwest winds during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2015
...Update to Aviation Section...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection continues to move into northern Missouri at this hour.
Storm mode has transition from cellular to a more linear/bowing
segment. The airmass to the south of this activity is more stable
as compared to northern Missouri. That said, the trend for cells
to organize do maintain a risk of cold pool production and a
longer life span. Will continue to monitor radar/observation
trends and potentially increase PoPs across central Missouri.
UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection has struggled mightily to fire in the airmass across
the region so far today. There has been a lone shower in
Texas/Shannon county, otherwise the cumulus field has begun to
shrink. Unless additional activity can fire in the next hour,
chances for rain in the near term are quite low.
We are watching convection firing to our north across Iowa and
Nebraska. Recent HRRR runs push a decaying line of showers into
central Missouri around/after midnight. If the cells to the north
can congeal and organize a cold pool, such a solution is
plausible. However, there are some negatives. The airmass overhead
is on the dry side and considerably less unstable. After sunset,
this airmass will only get more stable, so support for convection
will be tied to any organization/outflow boundary potential. For
now, will keep PoPs as is and watch incoming soundings and
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s. Dewpoints,
especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able
to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly
comfortable by early August standards.
A few isolated thunderstorms aren`t entirely out of the question
this afternoon across south central Missouri, but most locations
should remain dry through sunset. Anything that does develop this
afternoon is expected to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of
daytime heating.
A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave moving through the
Great Lakes will move south toward the region tomorrow, though at
this point it appears that it will stall out just north and east of
the CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary tomorrow, but it`s very much in question how far south
activity will make it before fizzling out. For now will maintain
slight chance PoPs along the northern and eastern periphery of the
forecast area. For most of the region tomorrow should be very
similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Rain chances will then begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening, as shortwave undercuts the upper level ridge and moves east
across the Great Plains toward the area. One or more complexes of
storms are expected to develop and move toward/through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low level jet develops over
southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Along with the actual MCS(s), remnant
MCVs and/or outflow boundaries likely adding complexity to the
overall picture. Any severe weather threat will be highly
conditional on clearing and associated destabilization, and this is
a short term forecast issue that likely won`t become clear until at
least Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Additional storms will then be possible Thursday during the
afternoon, as well as again that night as the LLJ ramps up over the
region. Thunderstorm chances will likely persist into at least part
of the day on Friday.
Temperatures during the latter portion of the workweek should remain
around or just below average, as convection and cloud cover keep
things from heating up too much.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Outflow
boundaries entering from the north do bear watching for Monday
afternoon evening as a focus of isolated shower/storm development,
but confidence is much too low at this point to suggest any TAF
sites will be involved. Light winds the rest of the overnight
hours will give way to southwest winds during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
I`VE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KCOU DUE TO WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE I EXPECT A DRY NIGHT
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
(20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL
IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS (20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE KSTL TAF AT THIS TIME.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
620 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
AT 20Z THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY UPPER LEVEL LOWS
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALONG WEST COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS ESTABLISHED IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
TRACKING BENEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PLAYER IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN CO...A STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEB INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SURFACE WINDS HAVE HAD AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...ADVECTING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY HAS MUDDLED THE
FORECAST PICTURE. HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING ADVERTISED A
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT TOWARD I-80. HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND COLD OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS HAMPERED THIS NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND IT HAS REMAINED STALLED NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW VEERING
WIND PROFILE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH THE HRRR MODEL RECENTLY PICKING UP ON
THIS IDEA AS WELL. STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...SO SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN PWATS AOA 1.5".
PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY KICKS EAST AND THE INSTABILITY
WANES WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST...WHICH KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN PLACE. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING SKIES PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TO THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LATEST NAM/EC GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED COOLER
FOR TOMORROW AND KEEPS MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...SO THIS TREND
WILL NEED TO MONITORED INTO TONIGHT. HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO MAKE
LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT NEEDS TO PLAY OUT IN THE NEAR TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WED NIGHT AND
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT THE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO END THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFLY OVER THE ROCKIES.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL AND BACK...THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...HOWEVER DO NOT
EXPECT A WASH OF A FORECAST. AS THE WAVES MOVE ACROSS A CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON NOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL IS THE BEST WAY TO EXPLAIN. IF
SHOWERS ARE OCCURING DURING THE PEAK HEAT...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...OTHERWISE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCALLY COMMON COOL SPOTS TO
SEE A FEW LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
THE SREF...NAM AND RAP ARE GIVING A GOOD SIGNAL FOR IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT 09Z-18Z. NOT SURE THIS WILL AFFECT
KVTN AS THIS SITE WILL BE ON THE EDGE OF THE CLOUDS.
VFR IS EXPECTED FROM 18Z ONWARD TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTH LEAVING
TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL AN UNCERTAINTY. SHEAR IS MARGINAL HOWEVER INSTABILITY
/CAPE/ IS GOOD. THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH STORMS A FEW HAVE BECOME
STRONG AND EVEN SOME SEVERE STORMS HAVE MATERIALIZED WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY HAS BEEN TEMPS...WHICH
ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
STORMS BUT UNSURE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT AGREE WITH THE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR NOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TOMORROW THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...HOWEVER WHEN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THOUGH WARM AIR CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA...
PERSISTENT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE.
SOUTH FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AGAIN. THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE DRY LINE (INDICATED IN THE
THETA-E GRADIENT)SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS. THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1000J/KG WITH 35-45KT DEEP
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE UPDRAFTS AND THE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY THAT
THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND THE SHEAR BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER MOST
MODELS DEVELOP ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY T IN THE NORTH
PLATTE TAF. FOR NOW CONTINUED THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR KVTN THIS
EVENING AS THIS REMAINS THE HIGHEST LIKELYHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY
DEVELOP AND AMEND AS NEEDED. THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST MVFR/IFR
STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF SW NEB IN THE MORNING. SINCE WE HAD A
BRIEF STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE IT OUT. WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 T0 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
106 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE H5 PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES. A CLOSED LOW WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS NWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ESE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED DOMINANT.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND SHOWS UP NICELY ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY OGALLALA TO EUSTIS
NEBRASKA. WINDS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE SOUTH OF THE FEATURE...WINDS WERE WESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMED INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 62
AT NORTH PLATTE TO 68 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS LATER TONIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING...A H700 WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE LATEST NAM...AS WELL AS THE HI RES WARW AND WNMM
SOLUTIONS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS...INITIATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THIS H7 WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE
INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FOR THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS THE PRE FIRST PD FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INSTABILITY AND
THE THREAT FOR STORMS THIS MORNING. ATTM...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AS
THE H7 FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ORIENTED FROM AROUND
ANTIOCH TO CALLAWAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL
DECENT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HEATING SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENS THE CAP. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS. BY EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
MID EVENING. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS IF THE FORECAST AREA INVOF THE H700
FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN HAS FCST CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CALCULATED FROM THE H700 LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H500 TO
H700 LAYER WOULD SUPPORT STORMS OVERNIGHT...IF THEY CAN INITIATE
AND THIS IS THE WILDCARD IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE H85 FRONT AND A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS BEING FOCUSED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL
CONVECTION UP TO THE VERY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. IF THIS
CAN BE ACHIEVED...WE COULD SEE PERSISTENT STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FOR THIS PLAYING OUT WITH THE LATEST
NAM...WARW AND WNMM SOLNS FOR TONIGHT...SO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THANKS TO CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER H85 TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR TONIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY IN UTAH...WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
WYOMING TONIGHT AND THEN TURN EAST AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH T HE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA...THEY ALL INDICATE AN UPTICK IN TSTM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS WILL HELP FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD ACTUALLY ALREADY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN ZONE OF BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT. TSTMS...AT
LEAST IN A SCATTERED FASHION...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND EXPECT QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS A RESULT. THIS COULD CUT DOWN SOME ON THE SEVERE
THREAT AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER.
ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN SOME PLACES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 40 TO 50 POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA
WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER WAVE MAY
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CARRY SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. IN OUR
REGION TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. NO HEAT WAVES SEEN IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER MOST
MODELS DEVELOP ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY T IN THE NORTH
PLATTE TAF. FOR NOW CONTINUED THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR KVTN THIS
EVENING AS THIS REMAINS THE HIGHEST LIKELYHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY
DEVELOP AND AMEND AS NEEDED. THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST MVFR/IFR
STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF SW NEB IN THE MORNING. SINCE WE HAD A
BRIEF STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE IT OUT. WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 T0 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TONIGHT
AND A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED CHANCES THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
AFTER 03/06Z. DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CHANCES ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS SOME QPF THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SCT TO ISOLD WITH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE.
TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE DAYS 2 AND 3 PERIOD INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SWD ADVANCING FRONT CURRENTLY WHICH
STALLS AND RETREATS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...UPPER
FORCING WANES AND TRANSITIONS EWD AND SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A RETURN TO STRONG SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUES THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL LOCATION. THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MAXIMIZE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT. SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS ONLY
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAN OF LATE.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL
FLATTEN THE TRANSITORY CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LEADING TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH QUICKER MOVING SUBTLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORT WAVES/ HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES...AND GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT KVTN AND
KLBF. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS EXPECTED LESS THAN 10KTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WILL LET THE SVR TSTM WATCH EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
THE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THAT.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THERE BE ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEW STORMS BUT IT
APPEARS IF THERE IS ANYTHING IT WOULD BE TOWARD MORNING AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT CHANCES BETTER THERE AFTER 14Z.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ATMOSPHERE AT 22Z WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESO PAGE WAS
SHOWING 100 MB ML CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS BUT
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOR TONIGHT...NAM12 BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS QUITE OVERDONE
IN COMPARISON TO GFS20 SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST ECM/CMC LENDING
SUPPORT SHOWING TO A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AND AT
THIS POINT BELIEVE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS IS REASONABLE. ON MONDAY THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON EDGE OF CAP. STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA.
SFC BNDRY ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NERN CWA TUESDAY WHERE AFTN INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL SET UP PER THE NAM12/GFS20. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FOCUS
FOR POPS IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR WED...WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS IN LIGHT OF VIGOROUS LITTLE VORT MAX TRACKING THRU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE CONUS. GFS/ECM/CMC QPF PLACEMENT APPEAR TO BE
GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. AND FOR NOW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO GOING POP FCST.
REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS ARE IN STORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
TSRA CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...
AND HAVE KEPT FORECASTS VFR. WILL NEED TO ADJUST IF TIMING OR
LOCATION OF POSSIBLE STORMS BECOMES MORE CLEAR. DID MENTION SOME
SHRA AT KOFK BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS ELKO NV
625 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT, AND
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA ON FRIDAY.
&&
.UPDATE...BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODELS
UPDATED FORECASTS TO REDUCE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO ISOLATED THIS
EVENING WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SHORT WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHERN NEVADA, BUT WILL
STILL BE MOSTLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. CEC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 PM /
SYNOPSIS...A WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL SPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA TONIGHT...AND
STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WARM SEVERAL
DEGREES ON THURSDAY. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NEVADA ON FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK CLOSED LOW ARRIVING ON THE CALIFORNIA COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, AND WILL SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NEVADA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS, INSTABILITY IS FOCUSED MAINLY
ACROSS ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON, AND CUMULUS FIELD IS EXPANDING
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. SOME STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS EASTERN ELKO COUNTY THROUGH SUNSET, WHERE CAPE IS NEAR
1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 30-35 KTS.
LATER TONIGHT...VORT MAX ROTATES TO JUST WEST OF GERLACH BY 5 AM.
LIFT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL, AND COMBINE WITH
NOCTURAL MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY, TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO FOCUS ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
AND NW ELKO COUNTIES. NOCTURNAL CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
ALWAYS HARD TO COME BY IN NEVADA, BUT SHORTWAVE AND JET SUPPORT
MAY ALLOW FOR SOME ACROSS NW NEVADA TONIGHT. CLOUDS, MIXING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MORNING
QUITE MILD, IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY...WINDY. SHORTWAVE WEAKENS AND CROSSES NORTHERN NEVADA
DURING THE DAY, WITH WESTERLY 700 MB FLOW INCREASING TO NEAR
25 KTS. SW/W WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH.
MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL NEVADA, SO MOST
LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY. LINGERING MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS ELKO COUNTY, WITH THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS NE ELKO COUNTY.
PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL COOL TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE VALLEYS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
80S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING AND COOLER. RADIATIONAL COOLING
RETURNS, WITH MANY LOCALES FALLING INTO THE 40S THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY...WARMER. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN,
AHEAD OF NEXT LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MANY LOCATIONS
ABOUT 5 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY. MARGINAL MOISTURE RETURNS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH THE BUILDING RIDGE AXIS, BUT GFS KEEPS
PW RESTRICTED TO NEAR 1/2 INCH, AND INSTABILITY FROM NAM IS
ANEMIC, WITH LIFTED INDEX STRUGGLING TO GET BELOW ZERO. AS SUCH,
ONLY ALLOWED FOR AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
AND KEPT ALL ZONES DRY. TURNER
LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS IN VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG TERM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN 500MB LOW APPROACHING THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PUT THE GREAT BASIN IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL COMBINE WITH
80-90 KNOT JET MAX AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE FOR STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH YET IN THIS SCENARIO. THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
MODELS DEPICT CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL NEVADA
AND MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS COULD PUT A DAMPER
ON THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION IF CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE NOT
REALIZED. IF ENOUGH HEATING CAN OCCUR MODELS INDICATE CAPE OF 500-
1000 J/KG AND PW`S FROM .75 TO CLOSE TO AN INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS.
STORM MOTIONS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP FLASH FLOODING ISSUES TO
A MINIMUM. MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HAIL.
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA SATURDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING DUE TO STRONG DYNAMICS. GFS IS STILL JUST A BIT FASTER
MOVING THE LOW/TROUGH EAST ON SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS PW`S WILL HANG
AROUND .75"...BUT MUCH DRIER SOUTH OF I-80.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE WITH
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR TEXAS AND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MODELS HINT AT ANOTHER PUSH OF MONSOON MOISTURE
TO EAST CENTRAL NEVADA BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RLC
AVIATION...INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA. BEST BET FOR TS WILL BE AT KEKO
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WHERE CHANCES ARE ABOUT 30-40%...OTHERWISE
A 10-15 PERCENT CHANCE FOR KWMC BUT EXPECT MOST -TSRA TO STAY EAST
OF KWMC. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KEKO. DRY AND STABLE AT KELY AND KTPH WITH
BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS. RLC
FIRE WEATHER...SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER ELKO COUNTY INTO THIS
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. SHORTWAVE ARRIVING ON THE
CALIFORNIA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL ARRIVE IN NW NEVADA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THIS INCOMING DISTURBANCE, SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FWZ 467, 468 AND 469. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH THE GACC, CONCERN IS PRESENT FOR NEW LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS ACROSS THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT, AS PW WILL BE LIMITED
ALONG WITH QUICK STORM MOTIONS. KEPT LAL OF 3-4 FOR THESE AREAS,
BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES IS
THERE ACROSS NW NEVADA TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE CROSSES NORTHERN NEVADA, PRODUCING
STRONG GUSTY W/SW WINDS. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 15-25 MPH FOR MOST
FWZ, WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH. ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH/EXCEED CRITICAL THRESHOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF ELKO, EUREKA
AND WHITE PINE COUNTIES, MIN RH WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE 15% FOR
MOST OF THESE ZONES. CAUTION IS ADVISED AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ON
WEDNESDAY. ANY CONVECTION WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO ELKO
COUNTY AND LIMITED IN COVERAGE.
THURSDAY...WARMER, DRY AND LESS WIND AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS
OVER NEVADA.
FRIDAY...NEXT PACIFIC LOW ARRIVES, SPREADING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NEVADA ONCE AGAIN. TURNER
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
99/90/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
857 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE SIERRA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO MOHAVE COUNTY
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS FORECAST LIGHT QPF
OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF PIOCHE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING 6-10 DEGREES WARMER IN
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY HOWEVER, IT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER START THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST,
INCLUDING TEMPS, LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. -SALMEN-
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO
FAR NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT QUIET
WEATHER AT ALL TAF SITES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. -SALMEN-
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...230 AM PDT...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS OVER ESMERALDA AND FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING
FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXPECT FOR A SMALL
AREA OF NEGATIVE LI`S OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SO LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL INCREASE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRYING US OUT
EVEN MORE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN...BUT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH THE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WE WILL START TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EVEN MORE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER MIXING AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH READINGS THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ALMOST A
MONTH...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY AND BRINGING IT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COUPLED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL ACT TO FUNNEL A PLUME OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY MOHAVE COUNTY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS EVENING IS THE NEW
FOUND CONSISTENCY AMONG THE LAST SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST. THE 12Z AND 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF PLACE THE HIGH FURTHER EAST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...LEAVING FLOW ALOFT MAINLY
INFLUENCE BY THE LOW TO THE WEST. THESE RUNS ARE SUPPORTED BY THEIR
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS EVENING...THUS RAISING CONFIDENCE.
IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE DRY AIR QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST
MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 1-
1.25 INCHES IN MOHAVE COUNTY...WITH A SHARP WEST TO EAST GRADIENT
ACROSS CLARK AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THOUGH THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A QUICK EVENT...THE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND
SHEAR ALOFT (E.G. 35-40 KTS AT 500MB) COULD YIELD A WIDER COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY. POPS WILL BE FINE
TUNED AS THE FINER DETAILS REGARDING THE IMPORTANT FEATURES (MAINLY
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH) ARE RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
OTHER STORY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE THE BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER
WILL BE BACK AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME RESUMES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
$$
GORELOW/PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1034 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL TOUCH OFF A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE BASINS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
AND HAS STARTED TO SHOW A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS OF 1015 AM.
SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AS SIMILARLY DEPICTED
BY HRRR AND NAM. WILL BOOST POPS BACK TO LIKELY RANGE AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE
SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ENCOURAGE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SBCAPES FOR THESE AREAS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WHILE BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO AS MUCH AS 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH A GENERAL
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FAVORING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ONE CONCERN IS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
WAVES COULD PASS OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER THE SRN
TIER OR FINGER LAKES. THIS RISK WOULD BE QUITE LOW...BUT WORTHY OF
KEEPING IN MIND.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
THE MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS BEING FOUND OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID 80S.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WHILE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO OUR
DOORSTEP BY DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE THIS SECOND FRONT THAT WILL
ACTUALLY USHER IN A DIFFERENT AIRMASS...AS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF
PCPN...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOWERS FROM THE
APPROACHING SECONDARY FRONT COULD BLOSSOM OVER AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK.
THIS IS A HINT OF THINGS TO COME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ALONG WITH A
CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING OF THE COOLER AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AND ONE
OR MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ACROSS OUR REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THIS REGION SHOULD BE MORE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...
WITH PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY EXHIBITING A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...THE CONTINUED GRADUAL
BUT STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL LEAD TO 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING TO THE +9C TO +12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD IN
TURN TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN
MOST PLACES.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WHILE
LINGERING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE START OF THE
EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE FOLLOWED BY SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THESE FEATURES PASS...IN GENERAL THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING OVER TIME. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... WHERE A WESTERLY
FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR CROSSING THE WARMER LAKE WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
NIGHT VIA A COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE EFFECT
PROCESSES...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN +7C AND +8C. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR SLEEPING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO RIGHT AROUND 60
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE...WHILE SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
AND DRIER AIR DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE
LATTER SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE SUBJECT TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LAKE
AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE GENERAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD... RESULTING IN
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THESE
SHOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...AND SHOULD IN FACT BOTTOM OUT
FOR THE WEEK AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS COOLEST OVERALL POINT OF
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS OF ROUGHLY +7C TO +10C SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS FOUND IN THE GENESEE
VALLEY/WESTERN FINGER LAKES... WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL REACH
THE MID 70S. SUCH READINGS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WHEN THE COOLEST INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY COULD TICKLE THE
50 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEND TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE CORE OF THIS WEEK/S MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
GO QUASI-ZONAL BEFORE A VERY MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR REGION IN TIME FOR SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INITIALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME
HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THURSDAY SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE NIGHTTIME
LOWS INITIALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE INTO
THE 55-60 RANGE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...AND KEEPS THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE/ANY ATTENDANT WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC- SCALE LIFT TO RESULT IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY...WHICH AT THIS DISTANT
VANTAGE POINT WILL BE COVERED WITH SOME VERY LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
AND POSE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AFTER MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IAG FRONTIER...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
KJHW...KROC AND KART TAF SITES.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES
AT KBUF...KIAG AND KROC.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS...AS
WELL AS BUF HARBOR...FOR WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ERIE. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG. MARINERS THROUGHOUT
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
WINDS WILL FRESHEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND
POSSIBLY FOR THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A FALL LIKE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC FOR SPOUTS IN THE GRIDDED DATA
BASE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER
COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.
THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.
THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR
80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
741 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES. BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING.
PREVIOUS...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN
QUEBEC NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE
AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
MAINLY DUE TO HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN
OHIO OR NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG
CHANGE BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE.
WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER
THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP
INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS
COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED-
THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AFTERNOON CUMULUS WILL FADE...BUT TROUGH WILL MAKE A GLANCING PASS
ACROSS NW PA. THIS MAY BRING AN OCCASIONAL BKN MID LEVEL CEILING
TO KERI. EARLY CUMULUS WEDNESDAY MAY START OUT MVFR...BUT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR. THEY VERY WELL MAY GO BKN FOR A WHILE BUT KEPT SCT
AS PREDOMINATE. WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND THEN
PICK BACK UP IN THE MORNING FROM WEST-NORTHWEST.
OUTLOOK...ONLY ISOLATED NON VFR WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...KEC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS
LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE
PROGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY
START TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING FORECAST PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA
AROUND 05Z AND MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH
BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S ONLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION
.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEN
WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.
DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ376.
$$
MAS/CC/BPN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE VORTICITY LOBE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, UP AROUND LEMOLO LAKE, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY
THUNDER THREAT. THERE`S STILL A LOT OF SMOKE OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND THERE REALLY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HORIZON TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP IT
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG,
BUT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS MINIMAL AND THINK THIS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD. WE
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES. MOISTURE
IS HIGHER IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE MARBLE/SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(MAINLY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW) WHERE INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST ACTIVITY TO BE
ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH FOR MEDFORD MEANS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRES
PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN
AVERAGE OF 12 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WERE UP, LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10",
AREAS THAT GOT MORE LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES DID GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN
WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80"
RANGE. IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING
WHICH PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.
THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
MAS/BTL/TRW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST STEERS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
B.C. COAST THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORNING CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.UPDATE...MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FLOW
NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. 00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB...BUT RELATIVELY DRY DOWN LOW FOR
NEGLIGIBLE CAPE AND MOSTLY TRACE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EARLIER
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMICS
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE 850-700 MB ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SWRN ORE PROGGED TO REACH NWRN ORE AROUND
09Z. HRRR DEVELOPS AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN A BAND FROM
CNTRL OREGON COAST TO EASTERN PDX METRO BETWEEN 06-08Z...LIFTING
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS
WELL WITH MAXIMUM IN POPS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN
AIRMASS DRIES FROM THE WEST AS PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES COASTLINE
18Z-00Z...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF MORE NORMAL WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. BRIGHT
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRAS AND FROM NEVADA...BEING
STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WERE THICKEST OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRAS...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...GIVING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS HOW THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE SHORT WAVE OR VORTICITY LOBE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE A RATHER WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THE CLOUDS
HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN QUITE A
BIT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNLESS MORE SUNBREAKS
DEVELOP THAN ARE NOW EXPECTED...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY...AND SO WILL END THE HEAT ADVISORY.
BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
TO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY... WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.
THE MARINE LAYER WAS AGAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY THICKEN SOME FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...
POSSIBLY TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS BY MONDAY MORNING...
BUT INLAND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...COOLEST NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP WHERE MARINE STRATUS HAS
BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR CIGS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KSPB. EXPECT CLEARING
AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TJ
&&
.MARINE...A RAPIDSCAT IMAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED GUSTS OF
25 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
OUT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT GOES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING GUSTIER IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA MON AFTERNOON...BUT HAS A BETTER CHANCE TUE
AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT A TAD. THEY ARE MOSTLY WIND
DRIVEN AND WILL BECOME STEEP AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. TJ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY CAPPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED OVER SWRN PA WHERE
THE MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 6 PM. THE HRRR TRACKS
THESE STORMS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE
KEEPING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE IT BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER WE LOSE THE SOLAR
HEATING.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING
NIGHTFALL.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID
60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
609 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND LATER ON ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENN.
THE EARLIER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LARGELY DISSOLVED. A DISTINCT PRE...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH SLID
EAST ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND LLVL RIDGING AND SEVERAL DEG F OF DEWPOINT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE HAS GREATLY NEGATED THE CHC FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 17Z VERSION
CONTINUES TO FIRST DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...AND THEN WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR BENEATH INCREASING DYNAMICS/RE REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW MODERATELY TALL AND
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMT OF SHEAR NOTED ABOVE...AND LACK OF
BACK BUILDING. MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS VIA BUFKIT HOURLY
SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE
WSW.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEG F THROUGH 21Z REACHING MAXES IN
THE U70S NW...L-M 80S CENTRAL ZONES AND U80S TO AROUND 90F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE EAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CFRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID SUSQ VALLEY WARRANT LOW
LIKELY POPS TO COVER DEVELOPING CONVECTION THERE AND THE
ASSOCIATED TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO...12 HOUR PERIODS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY
NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN CONTRAST TO FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH THE NEAR-TERM
HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE SHOW THE GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY LAST OR EVEN REDEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT INVOF THE SERN
TERMINALS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...THEREFORE CUT BACK ON TS IN
THE TAFS AND WILL HANDLE TSTM IMPACTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND LATER ON ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENN.
THE EARLIER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LARGELY DISSOLVED. A DISTINCT PRE...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH SLID
EAST ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND LLVL RIDGING AND SEVERAL DEG F OF DEWPOINT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE HAS GREATLY NEGATED THE CHC FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 17Z VERSION
CONTINUES TO FIRST DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...AND THEN WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR BENEATH INCREASING DYNAMICS/RE REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW MODERATELY TALL AND
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMT OF SHEAR NOTED ABOVE...AND LACK OF
BACK BUILDING. MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS VIA BUFKIT HOURLY
SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE
WSW.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEG F THROUGH 21Z REACHING MAXES IN
THE U70S NW...L-M 80S CENTRAL ZONES AND U80S TO AROUND 90F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE EAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CFRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID SUSQ VALLEY WARRANT LOW
LIKELY POPS TO COVER DEVELOPING CONVECTION THERE AND THE
ASSOCIATED TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO...12 HOUR PERIODS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY
NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN CONTRAST TO FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND LATER ON ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENN.
THE EARLIER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LARGELY DISSOLVED. A DISTINCT PRE...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH SLID
EAST ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND LLVL RIDGING AND SEVERAL DEG F OF DEWPOINT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE HAS GREATLY NEGATED THE CHC FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 17Z VERSION
CONTINUES TO FIRST DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...AND THEN WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR BENEATH INCREASING DYNAMICS/RE REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW MODERATELY TALL AND
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMT OF SHEAR NOTED ABOVE...AND LACK OF
BACK BUILDING. MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS VIA BUFKIT HOURLY
SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE
WSW.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEG F THROUGH 21Z REACHING MAXES IN
THE U70S NW...L-M 80S CENTRAL ZONES AND U80S TO AROUND 90F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE EAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CFRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID SUSQ VALLEY WARRANT LOW
LIKELY POPS TO COVER DEVELOPING CONVECTION THERE AND THE
ASSOCIATED TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO...12 HOUR PERIODS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY
NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN CONTRAST TO FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAD MOVED THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER NORTH BUT THEY HAVE RETURNED SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY UNTIL WED NIGHT OR THURS. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR-
LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A
HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1227 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK
WILL HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER CENTRAL PENN. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE AS IT DRIFTS EAST AT
20-25 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IT APPEARS THAT HIGH RES MODELS /4 KM WRF...AND HRRR - HRRRX/ ARE
LATCHING ONTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK TO
ACT AS A DECENT BOUNDARY FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE /AS A RESULT OF DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING OF WESTERLY
MOMENTUM OCCURS IN THE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN/.
SUNSHINE THROUGH THINNING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NWRN PENN WILL
COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING CFRONT TO TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OR TWO
OF STG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NEAR THE
LAKE ERIE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN FAR NWRN PENN.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC WILL VEER A BIT THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND WILL BE
TOUGH TO DISCRIMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER ALMOST ALL OF
CENTRAL PA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SERN COS. THIS IS PRESUMABLY
DUE TO THE LOSS OF CAPE AS THE HEAT OF THE DAY GOES AWAY.
HOWEVER...THE MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAKE FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW TALL AND MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE A THREAT TODAY WITHOUT SLOW-
MOVING STORMS OR MUCH POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING. SUNSHINE WITH
HELP FROM A WEST/DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND WILL HELP THE MAXES TOUCH 90
IN THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S WILL KEEP HEAT-RELATED FLAGS ON THE SHELF TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST LIKELY...A BROKEN ASSORTMENT OF STORMS WILL BE ON-GOING AT
THE START OF THE SHORT-TERM. SOME ORGANIZATION FROM MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS TO BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD EMERGE DUE TO THE UNI-DIR WIND
PROFILE. THE CURRENT CROP OF MESO MDLS HAS A POOR LEVEL OF
CONTINUITY AMONG THEM WHEN IT COMES TO HOW LONG CONVECTION WILL
LAST AND WHEN THE ALL-CLEAR WILL SOUND. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE LATER TODAY...BUT
GETS LOST IN THE DISTURBANCES IN THE P-FILED CAUSED BY CONVECTIVE
COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD START TO EMERGE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
RANGE CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR.
LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY NOT BE A PROBLEM
DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS LOW CLOUDS INSTEAD
OF FOG.
TUESDAY SEEMS LIKE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT...
THE HEATING COULD AGAIN POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS THE LAURELS. THE COVERAGE OF ANYTHING WHICH WOULD MAKE
PRECIP REACH THE GROUND IS GOING TO BE WIDELY SCT. HAVE HELD ONTO
THE IDEA OF A LOW POP IN THE FAR SE AS WELL SINCE THE FRONT
SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO FAR AWAY. MAXES IN THE 70S NW HALF AND 80S SE
HALF. NOT TOO FAR OFF NORMALS FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAD MOVED THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER NORTH BUT THEY HAVE RETURNED SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY UNTIL WED NIGHT OR THURS. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR-
LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A
HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 18-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. VERY ISOLD P.M. SHRA PSBL XTRME NRN AIRSPACE.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR ADVERTISES ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NC/SC LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT HAS NOT INITIALIZED ESPECIALLY WELL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY ISOLD SHOWERS FIGHTING THE DRY AIR IN
PROFILES. WILL CONTINUE TO CURB POPS TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
AND CONFINE TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH LATE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NE ALONG
THE SE COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PERMIT ALL ASSOCIATED
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SEABREEZE FRONT MAY WORK IN FROM THE SE TO FURTHER ELEVATE
DEWPOINTS AND KEEP MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO. PATCHY DAYBREAK
FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN DRIVE
ANY CONVECTION EASTWARD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY.
PROFILES ARE STILL ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN TO 6.5 DEG C OR BETTER AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL AID TRIGGERING. A MOS BLEND OF LOW END POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
SEEMS REASONABLE. MAX TEMPS MAY GAIN ANOTHER DEGREE OVER MONDAY
VALUES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FLOW OVER THE SE U.S. TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOMOE WIDELY SCT CONVECTION LINGERING DURING THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD SHOULD ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION MAY THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SW NC MOUNTAINS
WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE WED AS THE SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS THE WEAK FRONT
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WED NIGHT TRIGGERING
PERHAPS SOME SCT CONVECTION. ON THURSDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AS 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DESPITE THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS ON THU MAY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING AT 00Z FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW TOPPING THE SW RIDGE GOING EAST. TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES
WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGE AT THAT TIME WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST AS
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH IN MID WEEK WILL DIG THR 500MB TROUGH OVER
CAROLINAS AND SUPPRESS RIDGE TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER OUR REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SC.
RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS THE BEST ISOLD
TO SCT COVERAGE BACK WEST TOWARD THE MTNS THROUGH LATE DAY. WILL
THUS KEEP THE KCLT TAF DRY. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS DURING
THE DAYTIME PARTS OF THE TAF...WITH MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT
NIGHT. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOW STRATUS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE
AIRFIELD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE ALONG WITH REINFORCING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS THIS EVENING. MVFR FOG SEEMS THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR DAYBREAK
VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY THROUGH 18Z TUE...BUT CONVECTION
CHANCES LOOK BETTER TO THE NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT S TO SE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...LIKELY TOGGLING WNW TO NW TUE MORNING...BUT STILL LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS/TSRA NEAR THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS MOST AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY SRLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND NW AT KAVL. MORNING MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL WHERE SOME STRATUS WILL ALSO BE HINTED
AT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ACROSS WRN NC ON TUESDAY...BUT
PROBABLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT AS A BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG A STALLING FRONT
THROUGH MID WEEK...AND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS STILL ADVERTISING
ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NC/SC LINE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS NOT INITIALIZED ESPECIALLY WELL THROUGH
17Z. THERE ALSO REMAINS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE PROFILES...SO WILL
CURB POPS TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND CONFINE TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH LATE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NE ALONG
THE SE COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD CONFINE ALL ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SEABREEZE FRONT MAY
WORK IN FROM THE SE TO FURTHER ELEVATE DEWPOINTS AND KEEP MINS ON
THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN DRIVE
ANY CONVECTION EASTWARD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY.
PROFILES ARE STILL ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN TO 6.5 DEG C OR BETTER AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL AID TRIGGERING. A MOS BLEND OF LOW END POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
SEEMS REASONABLE. MAX TEMPS MAY GAIN ANOTHER DEGREE OVER MONDAY
VALUES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINA AND GA COASTS ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING....MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE SC ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES VA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE SPREADS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE
GREATER ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS COLD ADVECTION NEVER REALLY
SETS UP WITH FRONT RETREATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING AT 00Z FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW TOPPING THE SW RIDGE GOING EAST. TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES
WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGE AT THAT TIME WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST AS
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH IN MID WEEK WILL DIG THR 500MB TROUGH OVER
CAROLINAS AND SUPPRESS RIDGE TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER OUR REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SC.
RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORMED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS THE BEST ISOLD
TO SCT COVERAGE BACK WEST TOWARD THE MTNS THROUGH LATE DAY. WILL
THUS KEEP THE KCLT TAF DRY. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS DURING
THE DAYTIME PARTS OF THE TAF...WITH MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT
NIGHT. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOW STRATUS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE
AIRFIELD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE AND REINFORCING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS
THIS EVENING. MVFR FOG SEEMS THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR DAYBREAK
VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY THROUGH 18Z TUE...BUT CONVECTION
CHANCES LOOK BETTER TO THE NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT S TO SE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...LIKELY TOGGLE WNW TO NW TUE MORNING...BUT STILL LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS/TSRA NEAR THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS MOST AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY SRLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND NW AT KAVL. MORNING MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL WHERE SOME FEW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE
HINTED AT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ACROSS WRN NC ON TUESDAY...BUT
PROBABLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT AS A BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG A STALLING FRONT
THROUGH MID WEEK...AND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
939 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE DEVELOPMENT
THAT THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON. THUS EXPECT THE AREA TO EXPAND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES...BUT
LEVELED OUT MIDDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF
WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WE MAY STILL SEE ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...BUT WITH EVER INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALL REACHED THEIR AFTERNOON HIGHS. IF
THE FORECAST IS ACCURATE WE SHOULD NOT SEE TEMPERATURES THIS WARM
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...PERHAPS UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH...DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AND
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS...SHIFTING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALLER IMPULSES WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WE WILL BE
UNDER GENERIC NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT ISN`T LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING TO BE
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT OTHERWISE DYNAMICS LOOK
UNIMPRESSIVE. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SUPPORTING CAPES OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. HOWEVER...IF RAIN IS ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...THIS AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STRONG STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
AS MUCH AS ONE INCH IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND. GUIDANCE WANTS TO
BUILD THE RIDGE BACK IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH
LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TOWARD MORNING. PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE ACTIVE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MIDSOUTH LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FIRST DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SHRAS/TSRAS INTO
KJBR AROUND 09Z...KMEM AT 12Z AND KMKL AT 14Z. THIS FIRST ROUND
PROBABLY WILL NOT REACH KTUP. SHOULD BE A BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON AND WORKS
ITS WAY SOUTHEAST.
SJM
&&
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
917 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ALL HAS QUIETED DOWN THIS EVENING...AND EXPECT THE REST OF THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT HOURS TO BE QUIET TOO.
MAIN WEATHER ISSUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...OVER THE WEEKEND...
AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK IS GOING TO BE THE HEAT AND INCREASING
HEAT INDEX VALUES. THROUGH THIS PERIOD...EXPECT TO SEE MORE AND MORE
SPOTS HAVE AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES GETTING CLOSE TO A 108 TO 110 RANGE. HEAT ADVISORIES
MIGHT BE NEEDED. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
AVIATION...
RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS W OF HOUSTON BUT SHOULD NOT
IMPACT ANY TERMINALS THE REST OF THE EVENING. MODELS HINT AT
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL AREAS BUT THINK THIS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE. HINT AT POSSIBLE LOWER STRATOCU DECKS IN THE MORNING
IN TAFS BUT NOT SEEING A SET UP FOR PREVAILING LOWER CIGS. PRECIP
WATER VALUES LOOK TO GO DOWN A BIT TOMORROW TO 1.8 INCHES. MAY
STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.
39
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SEA BREEZE MOVED INLAND EARLIER
TODAY. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WAS REFLECTED BY PW/S UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES AS SEEN ON THE SPC RAP OUTPUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...THE NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SHOWED WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINATION
HAS GENERATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
EVEN SO...THE NAM12 AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 15
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE AND MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE BUILDING
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT WERE
FORECASTING ACTUAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES AS HIGH AS 99 TO 102 IN SOME PLACES WELL INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAT INDEX MAY REACH 103 TO 108 OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN MAY POSSIBLY EXCEED 108 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
40
AVIATION...
KEPT MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST SITES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN GIVEN
THE TRENDS. MODELS INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH PWS (JUST OVER 2") TO
PERSIST THRU TOMORROW AFTN SO WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS NOTED FOR SOME SITES THIS MORNING. 41
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH AFTN FCST PACKAGE FOR THE MARINE ZONES AS
THE CURRENT WX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VARIATIONS. ISO/WIDELY SCT POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW GIVEN THE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 79 98 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
630 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION IN AVIATION SECTION.
&&
.AVIATION...
RADAR STILL SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS W OF HOUSTON BU TSHOULD NOT
IMPACT ANY TERMINALS THE REST OF THE EVENING. MODELS HINT AT
POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL AREAS BUT THINK THIS IS TOO
AGGRESSIVE. HINT AT POSSIBLE LOWER STRATOCU DECKS IN THE MORNING
IN TAFS BUT NOT SEEING A SET UP FOR PREVAILING LOWER CIGS. PRECIP
WATER VALUES LOOK TO GO DOWN A BIT TOMORROW TO 1.8 INCHES. MAY
STILL SEE A FEW SHOWERS BUT STILL LOW ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LEAVE
OUT ANY MENTION IN TAFS.
39
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SEA BREEZE MOVED INLAND EARLIER
TODAY. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WAS REFLECTED BY PW/S UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES AS SEEN ON THE SPC RAP OUTPUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...THE NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SHOWED WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINATION
HAS GENERATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
EVEN SO...THE NAM12 AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 15
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE AND MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE BUILDING
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT WERE
FORECASTING ACTUAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES AS HIGH AS 99 TO 102 IN SOME PLACES WELL INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAT INDEX MAY REACH 103 TO 108 OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN MAY POSSIBLY EXCEED 108 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.
40
AVIATION...
KEPT MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST SITES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN GIVEN
THE TRENDS. MODELS INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH PWS (JUST OVER 2") TO
PERSIST THRU TOMORROW AFTN SO WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS NOTED FOR SOME SITES THIS MORNING. 41
MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH AFTN FCST PACKAGE FOR THE MARINE ZONES AS
THE CURRENT WX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VARIATIONS. ISO/WIDELY SCT POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW GIVEN THE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 79 98 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION/MARINE...39
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CONCERNS...VFR.
LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHEN SPEEDS FALL TO NEAR 5KTS...THE DIRECTION
TYPICALLY VARIES...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY ENTER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH IN W/NW FLOW.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
TAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS MOST OF OUR RED RIVER
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH MAY SLIDE IN FROM THE
NORTH AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING
OF THE COLUMN. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM...BUT PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
BAIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AGAIN JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WE WILL SHOW
A MENTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY...AND THUS VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FOR EARLY AUGUST. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SO UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL BE RETURNING TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEK...BUT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON ITS EASTERN
FRINGE. THIS MEANS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE TOO
PROMINENT...AND ONCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS ENOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY BE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEK...IT IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT COULD MAKE
THE WEATHER GO FROM DRY TO - SURPRISE IT IS RAINING. AT THIS
POINT THE INGREDIENTS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION DO NOT APPEAR
TO COME IN PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...BUT AGAIN THIS IS NOT A
PATTERN WHERE DRY WEATHER IS A CERTAINTY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE HIGH PLAINS. FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW ALOFT EXISTS FOR A MCS TO
FORM AND TRACK INTO THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
JUST LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR ANY COMPLEX TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BY THIS TIME
THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE FORCING MAY INTERACT
WITH THE UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS. OTHERWISE HAVE SHOWN POPS OF
10 PERCENT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY NORTH OF I-20 BUT KEPT THE WORDED
FORECAST DRY. THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND STALL. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
AGAIN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTEND WITH
JUST HOT AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCH UP INTO
THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE WEEK. BY NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL PROMOTE HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WELL INTO MID AUGUST.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 73 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 71 98 74 98 76 / 0 10 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 75 99 78 / 5 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 72 99 75 98 77 / 0 5 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 79 100 80 100 82 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 73 99 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 100 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 98 73 99 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF TAF SITES.
WITH INFLUX OF DRIER SURFACE TDS THE CU RULE IS NOT LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR SRN WI THOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC H5 FLOW ALOFT AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST KEEPING AN EYE ON SRN EXTENT OF THE CU
FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL WI THIS
AFTN...THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VRY DRY COLUMN TO HOLD SWAY
VCNTY TAF SITES.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG. SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL. BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI. LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU. SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE. MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD. FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS. NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.
MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS. WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TALLAHASSEE FL
338 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The overnight analysis shows weak flow across the local area,
typical of summertime. The airmass is moist with PWAT values near
to slightly above average. Once again like last night, the 00z GFS
appears to have surface dewpoints too low in its 6 hour forecast
across portions of east-central Alabama by as much as 10 degrees
with smaller errors of a couple of degrees closer to our area.
For today, southwest flow in the low levels is expected to keep
the boundary layer moist and the GFS seems too dry again. There
may be evidence of a weak perturbation in the flow along the
northern Gulf coast with some convection noted off the MS/AL
coastline. This convection is expected to propagate eastward
through the morning hours while gradually expanding in coverage,
resulting in likely PoPs for most of the western portions of the
area today. The 04z HRRR run seemed to be a good guide to follow
through the morning hours with some other local CAM guidance in
general agreement along with the two NCEP CAMs. With an early
start to convection across the Florida panhandle, high
temperatures are expected to be around 90 with mid 90s farther to
the east.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
As the latter half of the work week approaches, an upper trough
will deepen over the eastern half of the country as a fairly
potent shortwave digs into the Tennessee River Valley. The
approach of this trough along with moist west/southwest low-level
flow will keep rain chances at or above climo for Thursday and
Friday. Increasing mid-level northwesterly flow on Friday may help
to fuel some stronger storms, with SPC outlooking the area with a
marginal risk for severe storms.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
To start th extended period, the area will be situated between an
upper ridge over the Southern Plains and an upper trough along the
Eastern Seaboard. Could see an active convective day on Saturday
as a disturbance moves south towards the forecast area in the
northerly mid-level flow.
Thereafter, the upper ridge is forecast to build eastward into the
early part of next week. This should lead to a gradual decrease in
precip coverage with temperatures remaining slightly above
normal.
&&
.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] Mainly VFR conditions are expected, but a
brief period of LIFR cigs is possible at VLD around dawn. Scattered
TSRA are expected to develop during the morning hours near the coast
and push inland through the afternoon.
&&
.Marine...
Southwesterly flow will be slightly elevated through Saturday.
However, winds are expected to remain below headline criteria.
Winds ands seas will diminish late in the weekend into early next
week.
&&
.Fire Weather...
Warm and humid conditions will continue for the next several days
with scattered convection.
&&
.Hydrology...
The Steinhatchee River has crested and is now slowly falling. It
is expected that the river will remain above flood stage for at
least the next few days, likely dropping below flood stage on
Friday morning.
With mainly scattered afternoon and evening storms the next few
days, do not anticipate any additional river flood concerns.
However, areas in the Southeast Florida Big Bend, particularly in
Dixie County, will be especially prone to further areal flooding,
should any storms move over the area during the next couple of
days.
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 94 75 91 75 91 / 50 20 50 20 60
Panama City 87 78 87 79 88 / 60 30 40 20 50
Dothan 92 75 90 74 92 / 60 30 50 30 50
Albany 93 75 91 75 92 / 50 20 50 30 60
Valdosta 92 74 92 75 92 / 50 20 50 20 60
Cross City 92 73 91 75 89 / 40 20 30 20 50
Apalachicola 90 78 88 78 90 / 30 20 30 20 50
&&
.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...CAMP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1109 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 835 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE FOCUS FOR PERIODIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT NORTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS KEEP THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN IL WITH
QUITE A BIT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO ITS
NORTH OVER THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. HIGHER POPS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS WITH PROGRESSIVELY
LOWER POPS AS YOU HEAD NORTH. UPDATED ZONES SHOULD BE OUT BY 900
PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
TONIGHT, WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START OUT
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WORK TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON TONIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED WELL NORTH OF WHERE THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS INDICATED, SO THE FACT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR COUNTIES DOES NOT PRECLUDE THAT SHOWERS
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN TO MATTOON AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SPRINGFIELD TO SHELBYVILLE
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
WILL START OUT THE EVENING GRIDS WILL MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MAY ADJUST POPS UP AS LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS WARRANT. DESPITE THE DRY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TONIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP REDEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS EXPANDING NORTH TO AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CANTON TO LINCOLN TO MATTOON.
LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT
DEVELOPS UNDER LIGHT ENE FLOW. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE POINTED
TOWARD LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-74, WITH
UPPER 60S IN SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT LATER
TONIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT WILL A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AS THE
ENERGY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST INTO INDIANA. THE
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND OF TRACKING
THE LOW ACROSS IL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
ALSO CONTINUE TO PROJECT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WILL RAMP
UP TO LIKELY, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-70 AS THE LOW
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF STATE HWY 50. HEAVY PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-70, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.8". WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY MAY HELP PREVENT FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO, A DRIER TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS HAS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN IL, WITH HEIGHT RISES
HELPING HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MORNING COULD DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN IL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI EVENING. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 FOR NOW.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY, THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IL SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING IT GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES,
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PUSH THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL IL. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.
HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND THEIR AFFECT ON CIGS...ESPECIALLY
AT KSPI AND KDEC...AS A WEATHER SYSTEM DRIFTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE NOTED OVER
PARTS OF CENTRAL MISSOURI LATE THIS EVENING AND THOSE ARE EXPECTED
TO DRIFT EAST TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THE AIR MASS IN OUR AREA LATE THIS EVENING WAS QUITE STABLE
SO IT APPEARS AT LEAST THE INTENSITY WILL WEAKEN AS THEY DRIFT
EAST BUT CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE OF THE RAIN OVER WESTERN IL LATE
TONIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A DECREASE
IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS A
RESULT...UNLESS WE SEE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE TO OUR WEST OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WILL ONLY INCLUDE A VCTS AT KSPI IN THE 06Z
TO 09Z TIME FRAME.
AS THE WEAK SURFACE WAVE MOVES ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO OUR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY...THE HIGHER THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD TO DECATUR AND SOUTH.
STILL THINKING MAINLY SOME SCATTERED TO BKN MID CLOUDS WITH SOME
HIGHER OVERCAST FURTHER NORTH...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AT KSPI AND
KDEC. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME LIGHT EASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMITH
SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...SMITH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THIS MORNING:
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A
HANDFUL OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A RATHER INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
WED...AS WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN
SW KS LEADS TO CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY WED MORNING. EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REMAIN DRY FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS...BUT THINK TSRA
CHANCES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT...INITIALLY OVER CENTRAL KS.
WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY PROPAGATE SE INTO CENTRAL KS AFTER 08Z.
CHANCES FOR AREAS NE OF KICT LOOK TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT
TOWARDS 08-09Z AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION INCREASES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AHEAD OF THE MAIN SURFACE LOW. THIS WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS FROM KSLN SE TO KCNU
EARLY WED MORNING. SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR KCNU/KSLN FOR EARLY
WED.
WILL SEE A GRADUAL PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE STORM ACTIVITY ON WED
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP VCTS/SHRA OVER THE KCNU TAF FOR MOST OF
WED...WITH SHRA ENDING WEST TO EAST. AFTER THE STORMS MOVE OUT IN
CENTRAL KS...COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS FOR KICT/KHUT AND KRSL/KSLN
FOR EARLY WED MORNING.
KETCHAM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 71 96 73 / 20 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 89 70 95 71 / 20 10 10 10
NEWTON 86 69 93 71 / 40 10 10 20
ELDORADO 87 70 93 72 / 50 20 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 72 96 74 / 30 20 10 10
RUSSELL 88 68 95 69 / 20 0 10 20
GREAT BEND 89 69 96 70 / 10 0 10 10
SALINA 86 70 94 71 / 40 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 87 69 95 71 / 30 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 89 71 94 75 / 60 40 10 20
CHANUTE 86 70 92 72 / 70 40 10 30
IOLA 84 70 91 72 / 70 40 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 87 71 93 74 / 70 40 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
138 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF AFTERNOON WORDING AND REFRESH TO
CURRENT TEMPS/DEWPTS/PRECIP. THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO OUR WEST INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. DID ADD
MORE PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MANY PLACES WILL SEE
LIGHT GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF EVENING RAINS.
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH ON WHAT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS STRUGGLING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LEADING LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...THE 04/23Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF
THE ONGOING SITUATION SO WILL LEAN ON THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SOLUTION KEEPS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT DRY...SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THAT WAY. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PICKING UP TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY...BUT SEEING
VERY LITTLE HINTS OF THAT OCCURRING TO THE WEST CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE...WILL TREND DRIER BUT WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SPOTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE A
RELATIVE LULL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW, SO WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW.
DO EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINDED TO OUR WESTERN CWA ROUGHLY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT MOST HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER
80S.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
AS WE ENTER LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SLOW MOVING
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER, PARTICULARLY
OF NOTE WILL BE A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE IN THE 2 - 2.5 RANGE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THIS TIME, 1.5
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL
SETUP, RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS, AND A WPC SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ELECTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH JKL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO FALL ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT/1
AM CDT.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PUSH ON OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND IN ITS WAKE, A BIT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE RAINS FROM
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THIS DRY TREND WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE
LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SET BACK
UP ACROSS TEXAS BY THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FLAT, THUS, THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS MID-LEVEL VORT MAXES ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
IN THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERAL WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FIRST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ONE ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS ONE THAT FAVORS ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND THEN RACING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IT IS REALLY NOT ALL THAT
SURPRISING GIVEN THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY THERE, AND WE MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EVENTUAL MCS TRACK SETS UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WITH LOW-MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPS LOOKS
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH AND
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. LOW TO MID 80S LOOK LIKELY FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS WELL, GIVEN THAT WE`RE EXPECTING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE AREA. IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LESS,
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION (06Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 135 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING WE WILL BE IN A LULL IN BETWEEN WAVES OF
CONVECTION. SOME LIGHT BR HAS FORMED OVER THE AREA AND EXPECT MORE
AS WE GO THROUGH THE PRE-DAWN HOURS SO WILL INCLUDE AN MVFR GROUP AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE SHORT RANGE AND HIGH-RES
MODELS INDICATE THAT A LOW LEVEL JET AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD
INCREASE TOWARD SUNRISE RESULTING IN RENEWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
WHICH COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NEAR THE TAF SITES AROUND AND
JUST AFTER SUNRISE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS HAPPENING AND ANY RESULTANT
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LOW SO WILL MENTION WITH VCSH ATTM. A
BETTER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION EXISTS LATER TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING
UPPER TROUGH AND WEAK SFC LOW PUSH EASTWARD ALONG A NEARLY
STATIONARY SFC BOUNDARY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME LIKELY AS
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
AFTERNOON THEY WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SW UNDER 7 KTS AND THEN
MORE EASTERLY TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM
DRAWS NEAR.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KJD/AMS
SHORT TERM.....BJS
LONG TERM......MJ
AVIATION.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
1249 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
...FORECAST UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO GET RID OF AFTERNOON WORDING AND REFRESH TO
CURRENT TEMPS/DEWPTS/PRECIP. THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
LOOK DRY ALTHOUGH WE SHOULD SEE RE-DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION TOWARD
SUNRISE AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO OUR WEST INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT. THE CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL. DID ADD
MORE PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS MANY PLACES WILL SEE
LIGHT GROUND FOG OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF EVENING RAINS.
ISSUED AT 953 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DIE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH ON WHAT WILL OCCUR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AS THE GUIDANCE SUITE IS STRUGGLING WITH ONGOING
CONVECTION LEADING LITTLE CONFIDENCE TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR TONIGHT.
THAT BEING SAID...THE 04/23Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE OF
THE ONGOING SITUATION SO WILL LEAN ON THAT FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS SOLUTION KEEPS MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT DRY...SO WILL TREND THE
FORECAST THAT WAY. THE SYNOPTIC MODELS ARE TRYING TO HINT AT
ISENTROPIC ASCENT PICKING UP TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY...BUT SEEING
VERY LITTLE HINTS OF THAT OCCURRING TO THE WEST CURRENTLY.
THEREFORE...WILL TREND DRIER BUT WILL STILL KEEP POPS IN MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.SHORT TERM (NOW THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ON A DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING AND DEW POINT BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY.
THE SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THESE STORMS MAY PUT DOWN SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL IN SPOTS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH OVERALL ORGANIZATION IS NOT EXPECTED
DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, BEFORE A
RELATIVE LULL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW, SO WILL LEAVE SMALL CHANCES IN THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S NE TO LOW 70S SW.
DO EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINDED TO OUR WESTERN CWA ROUGHLY ALONG THE STALLED
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. EXPECT MOST HIGHS TO BE IN THE UPPER
80S.
...FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
AS WE ENTER LATER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SLOW MOVING
UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND THEN LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED IN THROUGH A DEEP LAYER, PARTICULARLY
OF NOTE WILL BE A 40 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE IN THE 2 - 2.5 RANGE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. SOME AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THIS TIME, 1.5
TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN IN AND NORTH CENTRAL KY. GIVEN THE METEOROLOGICAL
SETUP, RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN SPOTS, AND A WPC SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ELECTED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
COORDINATION WITH JKL FROM LATER WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. AT THIS
POINT, EXPECT THE HEAVIEST AXIS OF RAIN TO FALL ALONG AND ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE I-64 CORRIDOR.
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST BY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING
FROM WEST TO EAST. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 2 AM EDT/1
AM CDT.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL PUSH ON OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY
AND IN ITS WAKE, A BIT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THIS SHOULD GIVE US A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE RAINS FROM
MIDWEEK. HOWEVER, THIS DRY TREND WILL NOT LAST ALL THAT LONG. THE
LATEST FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SET BACK
UP ACROSS TEXAS BY THE LATE PART OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE FLAT, THUS, THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER AS MID-LEVEL VORT MAXES ROUND
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE.
WHILE FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE WAVES
IN THE LATE PART OF THE PERIOD, IT DOES APPEAR THAT SEVERAL WILL
IMPACT THE REGION FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
FIRST MAY AFFECT OUR REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER
ONE ON MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS ONE THAT FAVORS ONE OR MORE MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES DEVELOPING AND THEN RACING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. IT IS REALLY NOT ALL THAT
SURPRISING GIVEN THIS PATTERN HAS BEEN SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS. THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS CERTAINLY THERE, AND WE MAY
SEE ADDITIONAL HYDRO ISSUES IN SOME PARTS OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK, DEPENDING ON WHERE THE EVENTUAL MCS TRACK SETS UP.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WITH LOW-MID
80S ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. A BRIEF MODERATION IN TEMPS LOOKS
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S NORTH AND
MID-UPPER 80S IN THE SOUTH. LOW TO MID 80S LOOK LIKELY FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS WELL, GIVEN THAT WE`RE EXPECTING CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION TO BE IN THE AREA. IF CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS LESS,
THEN TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED SLIGHTLY IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.AVIATION (00Z TAF UPDATE)...
ISSUED AT 744 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS PACKING STRONG WINDS AND IFR VSBYS WILL PASS
THROUGH KSDF AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THIS LINE MAY PERSIST EAST
INTO LEXINGTON...BUT WILL SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS BEFORE ADDING MORE
THAN VCTS AT THIS TIME. AFTER THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...CONFIDENCE
LOWERS QUITE A BIT IN WHAT MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT. THE LATEST HI-RES
GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS ACTIVITY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET GOING
OVERNIGHT...SO HAVE PLAYED DOWN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AFTER THIS
INITIAL LINE MOVES THROUGH. THAT BEING SAID...CANNOT RULE OUT
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS MISSOURI AND WESTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT...GETTING INTO KSDF OR KBWG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF
CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...THEN SOME LIGHT FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE AT KWBG OR KLEX.
WEDNESDAY WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW CONVECTION PLAYS OUT
OVERNIGHT...BUT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-063>067.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&
$$
UPDATE.........KJD/AMS
SHORT TERM.....BJS
LONG TERM......MJ
AVIATION.......KJD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
338 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES AND RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DELAYED THE TIMING WITH WHICH PCPN
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO WAS ABLE TO DELAY THE PCPN
CHANCES...RESULTING IN HOLDING THE ONSET OF PCPN OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER IS RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL THE RISING SUN BURNS
IT OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND. BOTH FEATURES
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY PCPN TODAY AND HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE GFS/NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SOME
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT HINTING AT
THIS. MOST MODELS AND MOS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM MOS...ARE
GIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...DECIDED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER NAM12 FOR
HIGHS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR DUE
TO A LAKE BREEZE.
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN
MANTIOBA THIS EVENING...AND MOVE EAST INTO NW ONTARIO OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED A SMALL BUT
RELATIVELY DEEP LOW WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANTIOBA
TOWARDS NW ONTARIO. A 25 TO 35 KNOT SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP
WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING PCPN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STAND OUT IN BEING FASTER AT
BRINGING THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND TO MUCH MORE
EASTERN EXTENT. DELAYED THE PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/SREF/GEM/GEMREG/NAM12/NCEPWRF MODELS...BUT
KEPT LOW CHANCES FARTHER EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF. THE
NAM12/GFS/SREF ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH THE PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...SO KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE MANITOBA LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NW ONTARIO...AND MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL BE CUTTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THESE
WAVES COULD HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE GFS/NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING MUCAPE COULD BUILD TO OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH. CONSIDERING THE CAPE
THOUGH...THERE COULD BE SHORT LIVED STRONGER CELLS OVER THE
WESTERN AND SW FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...SO MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO AN EVEN
STRONGER EAST TO NE FLOW OVER THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THE LEADING SHORTWAVE...850MB LOW...AND WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TIME
RANGE. THIS WILL PUT US INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HAVE PUT THEM INTO THE 70S FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER MAY NEED TO BOOST THEM IF WE CAN GET SOME
MORE SUNSHINE. WE REMAIN IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 TO CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES
DIVING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH AREA SANDWICHED
BETWEEN PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC AND BUILDING RIDGE
OVER CENTRAL CONUS. EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION TO VSBYS/CIGS
THROUGH SUNRISE AS OBSERVED DURING PAST SEVERAL MORNINGS WITH
MVFR/IFR VSBYS EXPECTED AS FOG DEVELOPS. PATCHES OF DENSE FOG WERE
REPORTED LAST NIGHT AND EXPECT ANOTHER CHANCE OF THE SAME SO HAVE
INCLUDED BCFG AT HIB AND INL. VSBYS LIFT TO VFR RAPIDLY AFTER
SUNRISE AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS INTO HIB/INL/BRD LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE IN THUNDER INCREASES AFTER 06.06Z SO HAVE OPTED FOR
VCSH WITH THIS FORECAST. LATER UPDATES WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE
THREAT OF LLWS AT DLH BETWEEN 05.22Z AND 06.03Z AS LAKE BREEZE
BACKS WINDS EASTERLY AT SURFACE WITH WEST WINDS NEAR-ALOFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 74 57 74 61 / 0 20 60 80
INL 75 59 77 57 / 0 30 50 60
BRD 80 61 78 63 / 0 30 60 80
HYR 77 56 78 61 / 0 10 50 70
ASX 72 54 78 59 / 0 0 30 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
341 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
LARGE HUDSON BAY CLOSED LOW SENDING A BROAD TROUGH INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. RIDGING INTO THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PLAINS AND A
CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH TROUGHING INTO NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WEAK
UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS MISSOURI AND A WAVE ROUNDING THE RIDGE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS OF CANADA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 MILES BUT EXPECT THEY MAY DROP TO
1 TO 3 MILES. HAVE INCLUDED THROUGH 14Z THIS AM. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES HAVE ENDED THIS MORNING WITH NEAREST ECHOES OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. HAVE REMOVED POPS THIS MORNING OVER
NORTH CENTRAL ZONES. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA TODAY WITH TD`S IN THE MID 60S. NEXT DISTURBANCE ENTERING
WESTERN WYOMING THIS MORNING. SUN WILL BE OUT LATE THIS MORNING AND
WITH THAT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REBOUND INTO THE LOW 80S. LATE
SHOW TONIGHT WITH NEXT DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE THIS EVENING. 30 TO 40KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
PANHANDLE IN THE LATE EVENING AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT TO START CONVECTION THAT WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOWS IN THE 60S WITH STRONG WARM
AIR ADVECTION.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
AFTER SCATTERED TSTMS DRIVEN BY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY
MORNING...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLD FRONT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WILL BE THE FIRST CHALLENGE FOR THIS PERIOD. A POTENT
SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK FROM
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. A TRAILING COLD FRONT
FROM THE LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF ALL IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT...HAVE IT LOCATED FROM NEAR
EWING TO BROKEN BOW BY LATE AFTERNOON. IT WILL BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH SFC
BASED CAPES OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG. WIND SHEAR DECENT AS
WELL...WITH MID LEVEL WESTERLIES INCREASING TO NEAR 45 KTS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL
COOLING AND MODERATELY STRONG FORCING WILL BE TAKING PLACE. ALL
THESE FACTORS INDICATE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY
AROUND 4PM. SUPERCELLS LIKELY AT FIRST WITH STORMS BECOMING MORE
LINEAR AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. THE SPEED OF THE
FRONT WILL BE KEY...IF A FASTER GFS SOLUTION VERIFIES ALL THE
ACTIVITY COULD BE JUST EAST OF THE AREA. AT THIS POINT
THOUGH...WITH MOST OTHER MODELS SLOWER...CONFIDENCE FAIRLY HIGH
THAT THE FRONT WILL BE IN OUR AREA OF CONCERN DURING STORM
INITIATION. IF THE FRONT WOULD HAPPEN TO SLOW FURTHER...THEN MORE
OF THE FORECAST AREA WOULD BE AT RISK FOR STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ALOFT CROSSES THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT. NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THIS...AND LIKELY
POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FRIDAY NIGHT. APPEARS STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TOWARD EVENING...WITH AN MCS
LIKELY TO ORGANIZE AS THE STORMS MOVE EAST DUE TO AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS...AS SEVERAL AREAS HAVE HAD
THREE TO FOUR INCHES OF RAIN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...AND LOCAL
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF HEAVY RAIN MATERIALIZES.
SATURDAY INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK...THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN
REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH
PERIODIC UPPER WAVES ROTATING EAST ACROSS OUR AREA ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS DAILY...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
THE SREF...NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LASTING UNTIL 15Z-17Z
WEDNESDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED 18Z-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY COULD COMMENCE IN THE PANHANDLE
AROUND 21Z...GENERALLY ISOLATED THOUGH. A BETTER OPPORTUNITITY MAY
DEVELOP 03Z-06Z WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WRN NEB. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
AT 20Z THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY UPPER LEVEL LOWS
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALONG WEST COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS ESTABLISHED IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
TRACKING BENEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PLAYER IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN CO...A STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEB INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SURFACE WINDS HAVE HAD AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...ADVECTING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY HAS MUDDLED THE
FORECAST PICTURE. HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING ADVERTISED A
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT TOWARD I-80. HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND COLD OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS HAMPERED THIS NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND IT HAS REMAINED STALLED NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW VEERING
WIND PROFILE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH THE HRRR MODEL RECENTLY PICKING UP ON
THIS IDEA AS WELL. STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...SO SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN PWATS AOA 1.5".
PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY KICKS EAST AND THE INSTABILITY
WANES WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST...WHICH KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN PLACE. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING SKIES PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TO THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LATEST NAM/EC GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED COOLER
FOR TOMORROW AND KEEPS MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...SO THIS TREND
WILL NEED TO MONITORED INTO TONIGHT. HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO MAKE
LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT NEEDS TO PLAY OUT IN THE NEAR TERM.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WED NIGHT AND
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT THE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO END THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFLY OVER THE ROCKIES.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL AND BACK...THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...HOWEVER DO NOT
EXPECT A WASH OF A FORECAST. AS THE WAVES MOVE ACROSS A CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON NOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL IS THE BEST WAY TO EXPLAIN. IF
SHOWERS ARE OCCURING DURING THE PEAK HEAT...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...OTHERWISE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCALLY COMMON COOL SPOTS TO
SEE A FEW LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
THE SREF...NAM...RAP AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VSBY DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT LASTING UNTIL 15Z-17Z
WEDNESDAY. VFR IS EXPECTED 18Z-06Z WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THE MODELS SUGGEST TSTM ACTIVITY COULD COMMENCE IN THE PANHANDLE
AROUND 21Z...GENERALLY ISOLATED THOUGH. A BETTER OPPORTUNITITY MAY
DEVELOP 03Z-06Z WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO WRN NEB. SCATTERED
COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE BY 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
327 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP CHANCES/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN TODAY`S
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WANED WITH TIME EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE NOON OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN A WIDE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA TO MINOT TO BISMARCK BEFORE NOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A MENTION OF A SEVERE THREAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON A
RATHER POTENT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. THESE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING (MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING)...AND EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BEGIN IN THE WEST BY MID-EVENING...SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WITH THIS POTENT WAVE APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...BUT THE MODEST
VALUES IN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING THEIR WAY
EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK...AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500...THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL.
CONSIDERED GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THE 05.00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE
FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS DRY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER
TO THE MORE ROBUST FORCING. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA ARE EXPECTED TO APPROACH KISN AND
KDIK AROUND 06Z-07Z LASTING FOR A FEW HOURS THROUGH 09Z-10Z. AREA OF
CONVECTION REACHING KMOT/KBIS AROUND 12Z-14Z...AND KJMS AFTER 18Z.
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY AFT 06Z THU.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
1049 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.UPDATE...JUST MADE A VERY QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO CURRENT TRENDS. HAD TO PULL ISOLATED
THUNDER BACK ONTO THE WEST SIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME CONVECTION
THAT JUST POPPED UP OVER MT. ASHLAND. THIS SEEMS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH SOME DEFORMATION STRETCHED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
DON`T THINK WE`LL SEE MUCH MORE THAN THIS, BUT OBVIOUSLY WE`LL
HAVE TO KEEP ANY EYE ON IT TONIGHT AS THINGS ARE SOMEWHAT
VOLATILE. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS DEFINITELY INCREASING EAST OF
THE CASCADES, PRETTY MUCH EXACTLY WHERE THE MODELS HAD IT, SO THE
REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS LOOK ON TRACK. -WRIGHT
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/06Z TAF CYCLE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY, BUT THEY ARE
DEVELOPING EAST OF THE CASCADES, WHICH WAS EXPECTED. GUSTY,
ERRATIC WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THESE STORMS, INCLUDING AT KLMT FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AT
LEAST. STRATUS HAS YET TO MOVE INTO NORTH BEND, BUT ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT IT WILL EVENTUALLY. SMOKE HAS DISSIPATED IN
THE ROGUE VALLEY, INCLUDING KMFR, BUT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SUGGEST
IT MAY COME BACK OVERNIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY.
IT SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW AS DIURNAL WINDS DRIVE IT
IN. THIS DEPENDS ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE FIRE, OF COURSE, BUT
FORECAST WINDS SUPPORT A RETURN OF SMOKE. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.
DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...NONE.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ376.
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
915 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE IMMEDIATE FOCUS IS ON THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.
AN EVENING UPDATE TO THE FORECAST IS NOT NECESSARY. DURING THE
PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, A VERY STRONG COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY NORTH OF THE SCOTT VALLEY
EXTENDING TO ROUTE 3 BETWEEN FT JONES AND YREKA. THIS COMPLEX HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR...LIKELY WITH SOME AID FROM THE
END OF DAY-TIME HEATING. BUT, ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT UNTIL AROUND 5 AM IN SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST SIDE AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
NORTH OF THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHEASTWARD. THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS TROUGH (WITH THE LIKELY FOCUS FOR OVERNIGHT
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT) IS SEEN BY THE WEAK RADAR RETURNS IN THE
CURRENT SCAN OVER FAR EASTERN SISKIYOU, MODOC, AND THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES.
THE AIR MASS OVER OUR AREA WILL STABILIZE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST AND A MORE MARITIME INFLUENCED AIR MASS
WITH WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR ONE
DAY. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST ON
THURSDAY AND SEND INLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO THE
NEIGHBORHOOD OF THE READINGS EXPERIENCED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO FOLLOW EXACTLY THE SAME TRACK AS
TONIGHT`S TROUGH BUT THE 18Z GFS AND 00Z NAM MODELS AGREE ON
INCREASED INSTABILITY AND LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY CHANGE IN HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM THE MT SHASTA REGION ACROSS THE EAST SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 05/00Z TAF CYCLE...ALONG THE COAST...IFR
CIGS ARE IMPACTING THE COAST FROM GOLD BEACH SOUTH TO BROOKINGS. VFR
WILL PREDOMINATE EARLY THIS EVENING ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST, BUT
EXPECT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS TO RETURN AFTER 03Z, INCLUDING AT
KOTH. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KRBG, BUT WILDFIRE SMOKE WILL BRING MVFR
VISIBILITY TO KMFR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VIS MAY LOWER TEMPORARILY
TO IFR THIS EVENING. IN NORTHERN CALIFOTRNIA AND EAST OF THE
CASCADES...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. AN AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THESE MAY
BRIEFLY LOWER CIGS TO MVFR, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
VFR. SPILDE
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 230 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD OFFSHORE AND A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST
THEN STRENGTHEN INTO THURSDAY. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN MODERATE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
THEN WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE OVER THE SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS. A GALE/HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS TIME
FRAME FOR AN AREA BEYOND 10 NM AND MAINLY SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH. THE
THERMAL TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. NORTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL EASE AT THAT TIME. SPILDE
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT, A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND AREAS EAST OF THE CASCADES.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY AND EAST OF THE CASCADES, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SUMMER RIM.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL SHIFT EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND EXPECT MAINLY
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA. A SURFACE THERMAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BRING BREEZY OFFSHORE FLOW TO THE COASTAL RIDGES WITH A
CHETCO EFFECT BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE BROOKINGS AREA.
LATE THURSDAY, EXPECT AN UPPER LOW TO SHIFT INTO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CALFIORNIA THEN MOVE INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THIS
FEATURE MOVES INLAND EXPECT SOUTHERLY MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY MORNING OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ZONES. AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIRTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA, THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN SOUTHERN OREGON.
AREAS OF SMOKE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS FROM THE CASCADES
WEST AT LEAST THROUGH THUS WEEKEND AS DAYTIME NORTH TO NORTHWEST
FLOW PREVAILS. OFFSHORE FLOW ON THURSDAY MAY BRING LESS SMOKE TO
THE CASCADES BUT INCREASED SMOKE TO THE CURRY COAST.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE SHOWING
AN UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVES DOWN THE COAST OF BRITISH
COLUMBIA AND BECOMES CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WASHINGTON SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CASCADES EAST AND OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY. THEN ON
SUNDAY WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTH AND A RIDGE
STRENGTHENING INLAND, EXPECT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, WITH BEST CHANCES FROM
THE WESTERN CASCADE FOOTHILLS IN OREGON EAST INTO THE CASCADES AND
NORTHERN KLAMATH COUNTY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 700 MB WINDS INCREASE
ON SUNDAY AND MAY SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN ESPECIALLY IN THE CASCADES. MODELS ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING INLAND ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE TROUGH MAY CUTOFF AND BRING A CUTOFF
LOW TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AROUND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN THE DETAILS FOR WEDNESDAY GIVEN THE VARIABILITY IN MODEL
ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ON WHETHER A CUTOFF LOW WILL DEVELOP AND WHERE
IT MAY BE POSITIONED. /CC
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 200 PM PDT TUESDAY 4 AUGUST 2015... MODELS
HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING TODAY. WHILE THE BULK OF MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW A SWATH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FROM THE CASCADES EAST IN
OREGON, THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK.
HOWEVER, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND HRRR PRECIPITATION FIELDS ARE
DEPICTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN
SISKIYOU COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND ANOTHER AREA OVER LAKE AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS APPEARS TO BE
THE RESULT OF A CONVERGENCE OF SEVERAL FACTORS, INCLUDING A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY, THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY, AND SOME JET SUPPORT ALOFT. THESE FACTORS,
WHILE EXISTING ONLY A SHORT TIME OVER SISKIYOU COUNTY, MAY LAST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT FARTHER EAST, AND THEREFORE NOCTURNAL STORMS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION EAST OF THE CASCADES.
DESPITE HIGH LEVELS OF UNCERTAINTY, HAVE OPTED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF FIREFIGHTING
RESOURCES, AND ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE ABOVE AREAS. SOME
STORMS MAY BEGIN DRY, BUT SHOULD TREND WETTER AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. UNTIL THEN, GUSTY WINDS ARE OF PRIMARY CONCERN. OVERALL,
LIGHTING HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS STARTS, ESPECIALLY
GIVEN THE IGNITION RATE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND NO
OTHER CONVECTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE WEEKEND. UNTIL THEN,
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES SHOULD REMAIN STEADY, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY
BE PERIODS OF MODERATE OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES ACROSS RIDGELINES AT
VARYING TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS MAY
ALSO BE AN ISSUE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. -BPN
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 5 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR ORZ624-625.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR PZZ350-370.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ356.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ356.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR
PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR
PZZ376.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ376.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ376.
$$
DW/TRW/MAS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
301 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWRD WITH
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MRNG. RELATIVELY LIGHT SRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW ATTM WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THESE
WAVES WILL PUSH INTO WY THIS AFTN AND CROSS THE CWA TNGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MRNG...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTN
INTO TONIGHT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. HRRR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NE WY/BLKHLS AREAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE W/ HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY MRNG WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE W/NW. STORMS MAY BE
LINGERING ACROSS CNTRL SD...BUT OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY THUR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...AND 70S ACROSS THE BLKHLS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THU NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROPS
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS
SUBDUED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONGEST SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... SUPPORTING
THE HIGHEST POPS SAT/SUN. SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY CREEP INTO SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS
MORNING FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS NEB AND MOVES NWD.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS AND NERN WY IN
THE AFTN/EVNG...WITH SCT TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY WITH THE
TSRA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1146 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
UPDATE...
LATEST HRRR AND NAM ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR
IMAGES...A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN ARKANSAS. THIS IS LIKELY THE BEGINNING OF THE DEVELOPMENT
THAT THE MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON. THUS EXPECT THE AREA TO EXPAND
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL UPDATE TO RAISE POPS.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/
TEMPERATURES CLIMBED QUICKLY THIS MORNING UNDER SUNNY SKIES...BUT
LEVELED OUT MIDDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF
WHERE WE WERE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. WE MAY STILL SEE ANOTHER
DEGREE OR TWO OF WARMING...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE...BUT WITH EVER INCREASING CLOUD COVER
MANY LOCATIONS HAVE LIKELY ALL REACHED THEIR AFTERNOON HIGHS. IF
THE FORECAST IS ACCURATE WE SHOULD NOT SEE TEMPERATURES THIS WARM
FOR SEVERAL DAYS...PERHAPS UNTIL SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
A STALLED FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE TO OUR NORTH...DRAPED ACROSS
CENTRAL MISSOURI. THE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE RECENT HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK DOWN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AND
A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WILL TRACK OUT
OF THE PLAINS...SHIFTING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW. ADDITIONAL
SMALLER IMPULSES WILL TRACK OVER THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT FOR ANY STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS
SHOULD BE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WE WILL BE
UNDER GENERIC NORTHWEST FLOW.
AS FOR THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...IT ISN`T LOOKING LIKE ANYTHING TO BE
OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT. THERE WILL BE SOME ENHANCED SHEAR NEAR
AND AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...BUT OTHERWISE DYNAMICS LOOK
UNIMPRESSIVE. DEW POINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW 70S WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 SUPPORTING CAPES OF UP TO 2500
J/KG. HOWEVER...IF RAIN IS ONGOING EARLY IN THE DAY...THIS AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY MAY BE OPTIMISTIC.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY STRONG STORMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE
REGION. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS MIDWEEK THROUGH FRIDAY
SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN A THIRD OF AN INCH IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI TO
AS MUCH AS ONE INCH IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. LOCALLY HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY WHERE INDIVIDUAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
MOST OF THE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO AN END BY
SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND. GUIDANCE WANTS TO
BUILD THE RIDGE BACK IN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN
SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY AND TODAY.
30
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THICK CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD PREVENT FOG SO REMOVED THAT
FROM KMKL AND KTUP. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS. EXPECT SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FIRST DISTURBANCE SHOULD BRING SHRAS/TSRAS INTO KJBR AROUND
09Z...KMEM AT 12Z AND KMKL AT 14Z. THIS FIRST ROUND PROBABLY WILL
NOT REACH KTUP. SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A BREAK THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY WITH SOME POPUP ACTIVITY BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND WORKS ITS WAY SOUTHEAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF SHRAS/TSRAS EXPECT VFR CONDS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
...HOTTER TODAY WITH ONLY SPARSE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...
CONVECTION YESTERDAY WAS VIRTUALLY NIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...AND TODAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH. FIRST IS THE PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH OCCURRED BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING. 00Z RUNS DID NOT
ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DETAIL. OF THEM...NAM12 SEEMED TO DO
THE BEST...AND HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON AS WELL. NAM...HRRR
AND RAP13 ALL MIX OUT THIS SHALLOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF 50+ DEW POINTS FARTHER TO THE EAST
NEAR THE KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM AS TROF ACROSS CA RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER CO AHEAD OF IT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MID AND HIGH BASED. SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION SPARSE AND HIGH BASED...THUS MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AT BEST...AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
IF IT CAN GET GOING AT ALL. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT...BUT STILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHALLENGE AREA WILL BE ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS SE CO. SOME OF
THE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY THE RATON RIDGE REGION.
CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...AS MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MIX
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE NAM WHICH HOLDS ON TO SOME LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS
BACA COUNTY. HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM12. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SILENT POPS OUT ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS FOR NOW.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...A LATER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO BUMP POPS
UP A TAD. IF CAPES CAN STAY HIGH ENOUGH...AND SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM...THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM IN THIS AREA...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 35 KTS. BUT WE SEEM TO BE LACKING
MUCH OF A TRIGGER IN THE WAY OF A DISTURBANCE...AND MODELS TEND TO
OVERDO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CASES LIKE THESE...SO WILL STICK WITH
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. THIS AGREES WELL WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK FOR
NOW...WHICH DOESN`T HAVE THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AT THIS POINT EITHER.
TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE MORE MILD FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARDS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
...MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
PROVIDES FAIRLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. MODELS PUTTING OUT ALMOST NO
RAINFALL...SO THE FORECAST WITH SILENT POPS TO LOW GRADE ISOLATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20C...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 100
DEGREES F IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND 90S ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REALIZED.
FRIDAY...TRANSITION BEGINS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN US
NUDGES THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE.
SATURDAY...WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER DAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING...AGAIN ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TICK DOWN A LITTLE
MORE.
SUNDAY...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE IN
PLAY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME SPREAD
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY...WITH SPARSE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED AND THEREFORE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15 KTS FOR KCOS
AND KPUB DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND OVERNIGHT. KALS WILL SEE WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS UNDER 15
KTS.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...KT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
1041 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH THE CIRRUS MOVING EAST LATE THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES. HOWEVER...DO EXPECT SOME DIURNAL CU WITH DAYTIME HEATING
THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
OBSERVED VALUES SO THESE WERE NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TODAY. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4-KM NAM
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
IT DOES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE
50S AND 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE
NWP GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT (FROM LIKELY). HAVE ONLY KEPT THE 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR POSSIBILITY OF FLIP FLOP NWP...THOUGH THAT
WOULD SEEM VERY UNLIKELY. CALLED IT LIGHT RAIN AS AT WORSE WE`D BE
ON THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
21Z SREF...NCEP AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC RUNS ALONG WITH 00Z GEFS
ALL SUPPORT A DRY FCST. HAVE ALSO RAISE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
FLOW AROUND THE OFF SHORE LOW IS NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS
TEMPS RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE HUMID...BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LOW PRESSURE APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR MID WEEK...BUT WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO PREVIOUS TAF PACKAGE. WILL UPDATE
INITIAL GROUP BASED ON LATEST SFC OBS AND SATELLITE TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...VFR FORECAST HIGH BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS. A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY TOUCH OFF A FEW LATE DAY/EVENING
SHRA/TSRA...BUT CONFIDENCE AND COVERAGE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN THE
TAFS.
W-NW WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BACK TO THE WEST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KT
WITH OCNL GUSTS UP TO 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS DIMINISH TO
5-10 KT TONIGHT. SW SEA BREEZE AT KGON WILL GIVE WAY TO W WINDS IN
THE AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE FOR A SEA BREEZE PRIOR TO 18Z.
TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
LOW CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE PRIOR TO 18Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 15Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON FRI.
.SAT...VFR. NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON TRACK. WATCHING BUOYS ON OUTER OCEAN
WITH SEAS JUST BELOW 5 FT. EXPECTING THESE SEAS TO STAY BELOW 5 FT
WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IF WINDS BECOME
MORE SOUTHERLY...THEN THE SEAS COULD BRIEFLY GET TO 5 FT INTO
THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WATERS WILL
ALLOW FOR SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. THESE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE FLOW IS EXPECT FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE
TO PERHAPS MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS (GUSTS TO 25 KT)...THOUGH THIS
MAY BE TOO HIGH. SEAS THOUGH ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...BC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...BC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
706 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
INCREASED CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AS A FAIRLY THICK CIRRUS SHIELD
IS MOVING OVERHEAD. THIS IS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A 100 KT 300 MB
JET MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THINKING THE CIRRUS MOVES EAST LATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON LEAVING BEHIND MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TODAY. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4-KM NAM
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
IT DOES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE
50S AND 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE
NWP GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT (FROM LIKELY). HAVE ONLY KEPT THE 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR POSSIBILITY OF FLIP FLOP NWP...THOUGH THAT
WOULD SEEM VERY UNLIKELY. CALLED IT LIGHT RAIN AS AT WORSE WE`D BE
ON THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
21Z SREF...NCEP AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC RUNS ALONG WITH 00Z GEFS
ALL SUPPORT A DRY FCST. HAVE ALSO RAISE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
FLOW AROUND THE OFF SHORE LOW IS NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS
TEMPS RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE HUMID...BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LOW PRESSURE APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR MID WEEK...BUT WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR AS HIGH BUILDS OVER THE TERMINALS TODAY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT THE START OF THE TAF PERIOD GIVE WAY
TO NW WINDS 5-10 KT LATE THIS MORNING. WINDS BACK TO THE W-WNW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. SW SEA
BREEZE ONLY ONLY FORECAST AT KGON.
A BRIEF SHRA/TSRA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
WNW-NW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- AN HOUR. LOW
CHANCE OF A SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THU THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU-FRI...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER ON FRI.
.SAT...VFR. NE WIND GUSTS 15-20 KT.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WATERS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THESE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE FLOW IS EXPECT FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE
TO PERHAPS MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS (GUSTS TO 25 KT)...THOUGH THIS
MAY BE TOO HIGH. SEAS THOUGH ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...BC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...BC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...BC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
957 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...LIGHTER WIND REGIME INDICATED WITH ATLANTIC RIDGE
AXIS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THERE IS STILL LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT SOUTH OF CANAVERAL WE
EXPECT THE SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND A LITTLE SOONER THAN YESTERDAY.
WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE...WE SHOULD INITIALLY BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A DRIER RIBBON WORKING AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE. THE BLENDED
TOTAL PRECIP WATER PRODUCT INDICATES HIGHER MOISTURE AROUND 2 INCHES
FOLLOWING THAT AND AFFECTING SOUTHERN SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE HRRR MODEL AND LOCAL WRF SHOW CONVECTION SPREADING OUT OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE STRONGEST
OVER THE SOUTH INTERIOR WHERE OUR HIGHEST POPS ARE (40-50 PERCENT).
WOULD EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE (30 PERCENT) DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTH...PROBABLY LATER IN THE DAY THOUGH AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...
PARTICULARLY EAST/WEST MERGER...ARE DELAYED MORE THERE.
MID LEVEL TEMPS LOOK TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR WITH MINUS 6
TO 7 CELSIUS AT 500MB. WHILE SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT EXISTS...THE
MICROBURST THREAT LOOKS SUB-SEVERE AND THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WHERE THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY COLLISIONS
OCCUR.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE MORNING. HIGHEST COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD
BE INLAND OF MLB-VRB-FPR-SUA...BUT VICINITY THUNDER MAY BECOME
NECESSARY AS SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW STILL EXISTS. WILL LEAVE
VICINITY THUNDER MENTION FOR THE INTERIOR SITES AND DAB...THOUGH
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL PROBABLY BE A LITTLE LATER
THAN 19Z.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS WILL LINGER NEAR TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WITH LIGHTER S/SW GRADIENT WINDS RESULTING (10 KNOTS OR
LESS). THIS WILL PRODUCE RATHER BENIGN SEAS 1-2 FEET NEAR SHORE AND
2-3 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. STORMS THAT FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD PUSH ACROSS THE COAST AND
BRING A THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS 30-35 KNOTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WX...SPRATT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
940 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
BROAD U/L RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. AND FLORIDA TO OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NOW EXTENDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. 12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATES
DRYING ALOFT DUE IN PART TO THE STRONG U/L RIDGE NOW OVER THE
AREA WITH PCPW DOWN TO 1.63 INCHES. W/V IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES A
POCKET OF DRIER AIR ALOFT NOW OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS REMAIN ONSHORE OVER THE NATURE COAST ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COMBINED WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WHICH WILL HOLD THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE CLOSER TO THE COAST
CREATING BETTER L/L CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH INCREASED ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ALL POINT TO BEST CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AS WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES INLAND DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE INTERIOR AND INCREASE IN AREAL
COVERAGE.
LOW END SCATTERED POPS ALSO OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
NATURE COAST WITH BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE NORTH WILL PUSH
ACTIVITY INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...WHILE WEAK BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS OVER WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA
WILL DECREASE L/L CONVERGENCE ALLOWING ONLY LOW END SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH AGAIN THE BEST CHANCE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PUSHING
INLAND ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPS. HRRR ALSO IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY.
BASED ON THIS...WILL UP POPS SLIGHTLY FOR SOUTHWEST FLORIDA AND
THE INTERIOR.
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...13/OGLESBY
MARINE...13/OGLESBY
DECISION SUPPORT...05/CARLISLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1032 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THIS MORNING. AS
OF 10 AM...MOST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST KS WITH A
CELL THAT DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN BUTLER COUNTY. WITH THE MODEST
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PUSH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER
S ACROSS EASTERN OK...AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. AS SUCH CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN WOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO. ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THIS MORNING:
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A HANDFUL
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO
MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 71 96 73 / 80 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 87 70 95 71 / 70 10 10 10
NEWTON 84 69 93 71 / 80 10 10 20
ELDORADO 85 70 93 72 / 80 20 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 72 96 74 / 80 20 10 10
RUSSELL 86 68 95 69 / 50 0 10 20
GREAT BEND 88 69 96 70 / 30 0 10 10
SALINA 84 70 94 71 / 40 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 84 69 95 71 / 80 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 88 71 94 75 / 100 40 10 20
CHANUTE 85 70 92 72 / 90 40 10 30
IOLA 84 70 91 72 / 90 40 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 86 71 93 74 / 100 40 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
640 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THIS MORNING:
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A HANDFUL
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FOR ICT-HUT-SLN-RSL-CNU...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS MORNING. AREAS OF
VERY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE LIKELY.
MVFR CIGS COULD LINGER INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO
MOIST LOW-LEVELS AND COOL ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH.
ADK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 71 96 73 / 70 10 10 10
HUTCHINSON 87 70 95 71 / 70 10 10 10
NEWTON 84 69 93 71 / 80 10 10 20
ELDORADO 85 70 93 72 / 80 20 10 20
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 72 96 74 / 70 20 10 10
RUSSELL 86 68 95 69 / 60 0 10 20
GREAT BEND 88 69 96 70 / 20 0 10 10
SALINA 84 70 94 71 / 80 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 84 69 95 71 / 80 10 10 20
COFFEYVILLE 88 71 94 75 / 80 40 10 20
CHANUTE 85 70 92 72 / 80 40 10 30
IOLA 83 70 91 72 / 80 40 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 86 71 93 74 / 80 40 10 20
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1121 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. ALSO
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST HRRR BRINGS
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
TODAY...EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3
AND 5 PM. OTHERWISE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD POP UPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP...ABOUT
86.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE SOME AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WITH A FEW RETURNS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL KY SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. SO WILL
ANTICIPATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ARRIVING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
OBS AND SENT THEM TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH KY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ACROSS
THE AREA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S. SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EARLY CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE DAY. WILL DEAL WITH SOME FOG IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS BURNS OFF JUST AFTER
14Z.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ROUNDING OUT JUST ALONG THE TN VALLEY.
HEADING INTO THE DAY A STRONG WAVE HAS TRAVERSED THE RIDGE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE AND NOW STREAKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THEN WESTERN KY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ALREADY NOW INTO WESTERN KY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KY BY 15Z. THE BETTER FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN OFF ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS
UPSTREAM IN MO AND KS WOULD SUGGEST AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A TAD
OVER DONE...SUGGEST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN
THE 1.6 TO 2.0 RANGE. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TRAINING STORMS. A RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND
LACK OF WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUB SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE
BULK OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WAVE ARRIVES IN EAST KY.
CONCERNING TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...MODEL PROFILES FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD INDICATE QUITE A STEEP WARM LAYER...NEAR 2 INCH
PWATS...AND CAPE PROFILES EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ALONG THE COLUMN
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHILE STORM MOTION
WILL BE A BIT QUICKER AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE ALLOWING LESS RESIDENCE
TIME...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INGREDIENTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET
THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THUS...ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FROM THE DAYS HEATING...THOUGH LESS...WILL
ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ONE FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNING CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE...SO
THIS WOULD MAKE PRECIP RATHER INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF ANY OF THIS DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME OR A COLD POOL
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BECOME A WIND THREAT BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN
SHARPENS UP MORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST
WILL BE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...BEFORE GRADUALLY
RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST ONCE AGAIN AND AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REPLACED WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON HOW
ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE APPROACH.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
DECREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
RESUME ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY ON THE HORIZON BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT FOG TO DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS
THE INVERSION BEGINS TO BREAK. HEADING INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
AND HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE TAF SITES AFTER 18Z. INCREASED COVERAGE
WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 00Z TONIGHT WITH THE BETTER LIFT
MOVING IN. HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP TO THE TAF SITES BY THE 06Z
PERIOD FOR BELOW FILED MINS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE DURING
THIS TIME WILL BE QUITE EXTENSIVE. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-
083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. THERE IS AS MUCH FOG AS IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY NOW...AND IS FAIRLY PATCHY IN NATURE...EVEN IF
VISIBILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM NOW
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES AND RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DELAYED THE TIMING WITH WHICH PCPN
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO WAS ABLE TO DELAY THE PCPN
CHANCES...RESULTING IN HOLDING THE ONSET OF PCPN OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER IS RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL THE RISING SUN BURNS
IT OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND. BOTH FEATURES
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY PCPN TODAY AND HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE GFS/NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SOME
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT HINTING AT
THIS. MOST MODELS AND MOS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM MOS...ARE
GIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...DECIDED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER NAM12 FOR
HIGHS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR DUE
TO A LAKE BREEZE.
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN
MANITOBA THIS EVENING...AND MOVE EAST INTO NW ONTARIO OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED A SMALL BUT
RELATIVELY DEEP LOW WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TOWARDS NW ONTARIO. A 25 TO 35 KNOT SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP
WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING PCPN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STAND OUT IN BEING FASTER AT
BRINGING THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND TO MUCH MORE
EASTERN EXTENT. DELAYED THE PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/SREF/GEM/GEMREG/NAM12/NCEPWRF MODELS...BUT
KEPT LOW CHANCES FARTHER EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF. THE
NAM12/GFS/SREF ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH THE PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...SO KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE MANITOBA LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NW ONTARIO...AND MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL BE CUTTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THESE
WAVES COULD HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE GFS/NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING MUCAPE COULD BUILD TO OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH. CONSIDERING THE CAPE
THOUGH...THERE COULD BE SHORT LIVED STRONGER CELLS OVER THE
WESTERN AND SW FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...SO MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO AN EVEN
STRONGER EAST TO NE FLOW OVER THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THE LEADING SHORTWAVE...850MB LOW...AND WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TIME
RANGE. THIS WILL PUT US INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HAVE PUT THEM INTO THE 70S FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER MAY NEED TO BOOST THEM IF WE CAN GET SOME
MORE SUNSHINE. WE REMAIN IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 TO CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES
DIVING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
EARLY MORNING FOG AT KHIB AND KINL EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY
14Z...ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO RETURN TO VFR. WINDS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 10KTS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST AFTER 08Z
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KINL AND KBRD. I HAVE INCLUDED A VCTS
GROUP IN THE TAF FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR NOW...BUT HAVE KEPT
CONDITIONS VFR AND EXPECT WE WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
TIMING ON THIS CONVECTION IN THE NEXT COUPLE TAF ISSUANCES.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 74 57 74 61 / 0 20 60 80
INL 75 59 77 57 / 0 30 50 60
BRD 80 61 78 63 / 0 30 60 80
HYR 77 56 78 61 / 0 10 50 70
ASX 72 54 78 59 / 0 0 30 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON MS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1030 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.
&&
15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO OHIO VALLEY REGION. A COUPLE OF WEAK
SHORT WAVES WERE ROTATING EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE 500 MILLIBAR FLOW
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH MID AND MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE PARTLY
CLOUDY WORDING IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AFTERNOON...BASED UPON CLOUD
TRENDING.
12Z SOUNDING DATA FROM JAN AND SURROUNDING LOCATIONS INDICATED THAT
PWATS WERE INCREASING TO AT OR ABOVE 1.75 INCHES. EXPECT THAT WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND EAST
OF JAN THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SOLUTION IS SUPPORTED BY CURRENT POP
FORECAST AND HRRR MODEL TRENDING. TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH
CURRENT FORECAST AND HAVE MADE LITTLE CHANGES.
&&
.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TAF SITES TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 4-8KTS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BRING BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO
GTR/MEI/HBG THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&
$$
TT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1035 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A SLOW DRYING TREND
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH VALUES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1031 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO BRING TEMPERATURES
IN LINE WITH OBSERVED AND BLEND OUT SHORT TERM GUIDANCE. TEMPS
HAVE BEEN TRENDING A LITTLE ABOVE FORECAST AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR LOOP SHOWING SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN VERMONT ALONG THE BORDER, AND
SCATTERED POPS IN THE PRESENT FORECAST HAVE THIS COVERED WELL SO
NO CHANGES NEEDED THERE.
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST US WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED 500 MB VORTICITY MAXS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH TROUGH AXIS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL POOL ALOFT WITH 500
TEMPS NEAR -18C TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
CREATE SOME INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY FROM COOLER SURFACE TEMPS AND DRIER DEWPOINTS...IN
ADDITION PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE LESS TODAY. THESE FACTORS
ALL SUPPORT LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND WEAKER
UPDRAFTS WITH LESS ORGANIZATION. WE WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT
THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. GIVEN LOW WET BULB
FREEZING LEVELS BETWEEN 7000 AND 8000 FEET SOME PEA SIZE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD IN
COVERAGE. QPF VALUES WILL GENERAL BE LESS 0.10" BUT LOCALIZED
HIGHER IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. PROGGED 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN
8-10C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE
MOUNTAIN TOWNS TO MID TO UPPER 70S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GENERAL
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE NE CONUS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT ON THURS. SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN NY
DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRIER WX WITH LARGE DAILY SWINGS
IN TEMPS. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH GREATEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE SE CONUS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK 5H
VORT AND COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY MAINLY DAYTIME HEAT
DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VT ON THURS. WL MENTION SCHC IN THE CPV AND CHC POPS IN THE
MTNS WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY < 0.10.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND SUPPORT
MID/UPPER 60S MTNS TO NEK AND MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY WITH GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES.
WILL MENTION SCHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND KEEP REST OF FCST DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS
TO 70S VALLEYS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN
VALLEYS TO 50S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS
THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE MEAN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
EXTENDED. ALL-IN-ALL, A GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD OF WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST FOLLOWS BLENDED GUIDANCE UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE.
EARLIER CYCLES OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE HAD INDICATED A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER FRIDAY AND
ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT ON SATURDAY. WHILE RECENT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM, A NOTED TREND HAS BEEN TO A POSITION FURTHER OFF THE COAST
RESULTING IN A MORE OPTIMISTIC EARLY-WEEKEND FORECAST. SO THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR THE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR VERMONT. I DIDN`T WANT TO
COMPLETELY GO DRY ON THE CHANCE THAT A WESTWARD RECURVE REVEALS
ITSELF IN SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE RUNS, BUT I`VE LOWERED DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE.
00Z GFS/EC SOLUTIONS START TO DIFFER AFTER SUNDAY ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER DETAILS. WHILE BOTH GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS GRADIENT/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RATHER
WEAK LOBES OF VORT MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY, THE GFS SHOWS
HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. THAT`S A STRANGE/UNREALISTIC
RESULT. I`VE THEREFORE HEDGED CLOSER TO THE WETTER ECMWF IN
KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD OR
NORTHWARD INROADS AND MAY SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDICES OF -1
TO -2), SO OPTED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO NEAR EARLY-/MID-AUGUST
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VISBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV AND SLK INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
CORNER OF VT BACK THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THESE SHOULD THIN OUT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW,
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY STRONG
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR-VISIBILITY
DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW PRODUCING LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE LIMITED.
BASED ON HRRR AND RECENT BTV WRF GUIDANCE, SHOWERS/STORMS MOST
FAVORED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT RUT AND STARTING AROUND 17Z WITH
6SM SHRA. DAYTIME WINDS WEST TO WEST/SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS GUSTS
UNDER 20 KTS.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. RISK OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AT SLK AND MPV IS CONDITIONAL ON CLEARING, WHICH
ISN`T CERTAIN. I`VE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST (VARIABLE AT TIMES) THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SPOTTY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...DAYTIME VFR WITH EVENING IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV
AND SLK TERMINALS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...HANSON
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
721 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A SLOW DRYING TREND
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH VALUES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 719 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MINOR UPDATE TO REDUCE POPS ACROSS
MOST OF VT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNING. CRNT RADAR SHOWS
ONLY A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
KINGDOM...WHICH WILL EXIT OUR CWA BY 12Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING A
MAINLY DRY FCST THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED STORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTN FROM SFC HEATING/WEAK
INSTABILITY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS TO 70S VALLEYS TODAY.
LARGE SCALE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE NE CONUS
WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH TROF AXIS
DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT IN COOL POOL ALOFT WITH 500
TEMPS NEAR -18C TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND
CREATE SOME INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS INSTABILITY
THAN YESTERDAY FROM COOLER SFC TEMPS AND DRIER DWPTS...IN ADDITION
PW VALUES ARE LESS TODAY. THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT LESS AREAL
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY AND WEAKER UPDRAFTS WITH LESS
ORGANIZATION. WE WILL MENTION CHC POPS WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM
THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN VT THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER. GIVEN LOW WET BULB FREEZING LEVELS BTWN 7000 AND
8000 FEET SOME PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST
CELLS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE. QPF VALUES WILL GENERAL BE
LESS 0.10" BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. PROGGED
85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE U60S TO LOWER 70S
MTN TOWNS TO M/U 70S WARMER VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GENERAL
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE NE CONUS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT ON THURS. SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN NY
DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRIER WX WITH LARGE DAILY SWINGS
IN TEMPS. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH GREATEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE SE CONUS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK 5H
VORT AND COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY MAINLY DAYTIME HEAT
DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VT ON THURS. WL MENTION SCHC IN THE CPV AND CHC POPS IN THE
MTNS WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY < 0.10.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND SUPPORT
MID/UPPER 60S MTNS TO NEK AND MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY WITH GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES.
WILL MENTION SCHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND KEEP REST OF FCST DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS
TO 70S VALLEYS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN
VALLEYS TO 50S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS
THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE MEAN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
EXTENDED. ALL-IN-ALL, A GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD OF WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST FOLLOWS BLENDED GUIDANCE UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE.
EARLIER CYCLES OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE HAD INDICATED A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER FRIDAY AND
ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT ON SATURDAY. WHILE RECENT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM, A NOTED TREND HAS BEEN TO A POSITION FURTHER OFF THE COAST
RESULTING IN A MORE OPTIMISTIC EARLY-WEEKEND FORECAST. SO THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR THE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR VERMONT. I DIDN`T WANT TO
COMPLETELY GO DRY ON THE CHANCE THAT A WESTWARD RECURVE REVEALS
ITSELF IN SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE RUNS, BUT I`VE LOWERED DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE.
00Z GFS/EC SOLUTIONS START TO DIFFER AFTER SUNDAY ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER DETAILS. WHILE BOTH GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS GRADIENT/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RATHER
WEAK LOBES OF VORT MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY, THE GFS SHOWS
HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. THAT`S A STRANGE/UNREALISTIC
RESULT. I`VE THEREFORE HEDGED CLOSER TO THE WETTER ECMWF IN
KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD OR
NORTHWARD INROADS AND MAY SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDICES OF -1
TO -2), SO OPTED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO NEAR EARLY-/MID-AUGUST
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VISBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV AND SLK INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
CORNER OF VT BACK THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THESE SHOULD THIN OUT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW,
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY STRONG
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR-VISIBILITY
DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW PRODUCING LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE LIMITED.
BASED ON HRRR AND RECENT BTV WRF GUIDANCE, SHOWERS/STORMS MOST
FAVORED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT RUT AND STARTING AROUND 17Z WITH
6SM SHRA. DAYTIME WINDS WEST TO WEST/SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS GUSTS
UNDER 20 KTS.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. RISK OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AT SLK AND MPV IS CONDITIONAL ON CLEARING, WHICH
ISN`T CERTAIN. I`VE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST (VARIABLE AT TIMES) THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SPOTTY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...DAYTIME VFR WITH EVENING IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV
AND SLK TERMINALS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
714 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A SLOW DRYING TREND
WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES WILL FEATURE
COOL NIGHTS AND MILD DAYS WITH VALUES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LARGE SCALE SHOWS DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROF ACROSS THE NE CONUS WITH NUMEROUS EMBEDDED 5H VORTS. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS BEST DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES WITH TROF AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. THIS WILL RESULT
IN COOL POOL ALOFT WITH 500 TEMPS NEAR -18C TODAY...WHICH WILL HELP
TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND CREATE SOME INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW LESS INSTABILITY THAN YESTERDAY FROM COOLER
SFC TEMPS AND DRIER DWPTS...IN ADDITION PW VALUES ARE LESS TODAY.
THESE FACTORS ALL SUPPORT LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION TODAY
AND WEAKER UPDRAFTS WITH LESS ORGANIZATION. WE WILL MENTION CHC POPS
WITH GREATEST COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN DACKS INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
VT THIS AFTN...ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDER. GIVEN LOW WET BULB
FREEZING LEVELS BTWN 7000 AND 8000 FEET SOME PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST CELLS...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD IN COVERAGE.
QPF VALUES WILL GENERAL BE LESS 0.10" BUT LOCALIZED HIGHER IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS. PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE U60S TO LOWER 70S MTN TOWNS TO M/U 70S WARMER VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 345 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE TO LARGE
SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH GENERAL
MID/UPPER LVL TROF ACROSS THE NE CONUS. HOWEVER...BEST DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE PERIOD WITH MUCH
LESS AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECT ON THURS. SFC HIGH
PRES LOCATED OVER HUDSON BAY IS PROGGED TO NOSE INTO NORTHERN NY
DURING THIS PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRIER WX WITH LARGE DAILY SWINGS
IN TEMPS. LATEST TRENDS IN GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FOR COASTAL SYSTEM TO
PASS WELL SOUTH OF OUR CWA WITH GREATEST IMPACTS ACROSS THE SE CONUS
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH WEAK 5H
VORT AND COOL POOL ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SPOTTY MAINLY DAYTIME HEAT
DRIVEN SHOWERS ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE MTNS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN VT ON THURS. WL MENTION SCHC IN THE CPV AND CHC POPS IN THE
MTNS WITH QPF VALUES GENERALLY < 0.10.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS COOL ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO AND SUPPORT
MID/UPPER 60S MTNS TO NEK AND MID 70S WARMER VALLEYS...SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. LITTLE CHANGE ANTICIPATED
ON FRIDAY WITH GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING SFC HIGH PRES.
WILL MENTION SCHC POPS IN THE MTNS AND KEEP REST OF FCST DRY ATTM.
PROGGED 85H TEMPS BTWN 8-10C SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S MTNS
TO 70S VALLEYS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S COLDER MTN
VALLEYS TO 50S IN THE WIDER CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS
THRU THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 331 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW/LONGWAVE
TROUGHING PREVAILS IN THE MEAN ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY DURING THE
EXTENDED. ALL-IN-ALL, A GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL PERIOD OF WEATHER
INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND, WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
FORECAST FOLLOWS BLENDED GUIDANCE UNLESS NOTED OTHERWISE.
EARLIER CYCLES OF GLOBAL GUIDANCE SUITE HAD INDICATED A POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATER FRIDAY AND
ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD EXPANDING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF
VERMONT ON SATURDAY. WHILE RECENT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THIS
SYSTEM, A NOTED TREND HAS BEEN TO A POSITION FURTHER OFF THE COAST
RESULTING IN A MORE OPTIMISTIC EARLY-WEEKEND FORECAST. SO THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WAS TO LOWER POPS FOR THE
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT PERIOD FOR VERMONT. I DIDN`T WANT TO
COMPLETELY GO DRY ON THE CHANCE THAT A WESTWARD RECURVE REVEALS
ITSELF IN SUBSEQUENT GUIDANCE RUNS, BUT I`VE LOWERED DOWN TO
SLIGHT CHANCE.
00Z GFS/EC SOLUTIONS START TO DIFFER AFTER SUNDAY ON SENSIBLE
WEATHER DETAILS. WHILE BOTH GLOBAL SOLUTIONS DEPICT A 1000-500 MB
THICKNESS GRADIENT/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND RATHER
WEAK LOBES OF VORT MAXIMA ACTING ON THE BOUNDARY, THE GFS SHOWS
HARDLY ANY PRECIPITATION AT ALL. THAT`S A STRANGE/UNREALISTIC
RESULT. I`VE THEREFORE HEDGED CLOSER TO THE WETTER ECMWF IN
KEEPING CHANCE POPS GOING SUNDAY. CHANCE POPS CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE MAKES LITTLE EASTWARD OR
NORTHWARD INROADS AND MAY SERVE AS A CONDUIT FOR CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES. THERE IS SOME LIMITED INSTABILITY (LIFTED INDICES OF -1
TO -2), SO OPTED FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CLOSE TO NEAR EARLY-/MID-AUGUST
NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S/NEAR 60.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...VFR OUTSIDE OF DEVELOPING SCT
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH BRIEFLY REDUCED VISBILITIES AS LOW AS IFR.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV AND SLK INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS SCT-BKN CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM NORTHEAST
CORNER OF VT BACK THROUGH THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF SFC TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THESE SHOULD THIN OUT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP UPPER LOW,
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. ANY STRONG
STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF IFR-VISIBILITY
DOWNPOURS, SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY OUTFLOW PRODUCING LOCALIZED
TURBULENCE. OVERALL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS WILL BE LIMITED.
BASED ON HRRR AND RECENT BTV WRF GUIDANCE, SHOWERS/STORMS MOST
FAVORED FOR ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT RUT AND STARTING AROUND 17Z WITH
6SM SHRA. DAYTIME WINDS WEST TO WEST/SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS GUSTS
UNDER 20 KTS.
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR/AFTER SUNSET. RISK OF
IFR/LIFR FOG AT SLK AND MPV IS CONDITIONAL ON CLEARING, WHICH
ISN`T CERTAIN. I`VE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT NORTHWEST (VARIABLE AT TIMES) THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
12Z THURSDAY - 00Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH SPOTTY DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
SHOWERS.
00Z FRIDAY ONWARD...DAYTIME VFR WITH EVENING IFR/LIFR FOG AT MPV
AND SLK TERMINALS.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TABER
NEAR TERM...TABER
SHORT TERM...TABER
LONG TERM...LOCONTO
AVIATION...LOCONTO
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
914 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC...BLENDED TO
A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION. EXPECT CURRENT STORMS TO
AT LEAST MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY PROPAGATE EAST WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE CLEARING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A FEW STORMS
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH ML CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LEANED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP FOR POPS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
PULSED UP FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LIMITED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP CHANCES/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN TODAY`S
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WANED WITH TIME EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE NOON OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN A WIDE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA TO MINOT TO BISMARCK BEFORE NOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A MENTION OF A SEVERE THREAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON A
RATHER POTENT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. THESE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING (MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING)...AND EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BEGIN IN THE WEST BY MID-EVENING...SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WITH THIS POTENT WAVE APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...BUT THE MODEST
VALUES IN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING THEIR WAY
EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK...AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500...THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL.
CONSIDERED GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THE 05.00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE
FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS DRY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER
TO THE MORE ROBUST FORCING. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT 14Z...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDED FROM KMOT THROUGH KBIS...AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY...APPROACHING KJMS BY 18-20 UTC.
THIS EVENING....ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY AFTER 23-00 UTC
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LEANED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP FOR POPS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
PULSED UP FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LIMITED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP CHANCES/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN TODAY`S
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WANED WITH TIME EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE NOON OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN A WIDE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA TO MINOT TO BISMARCK BEFORE NOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A MENTION OF A SEVERE THREAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON A
RATHER POTENT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. THESE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING (MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING)...AND EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BEGIN IN THE WEST BY MID-EVENING...SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WITH THIS POTENT WAVE APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...BUT THE MODEST
VALUES IN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING THEIR WAY
EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK...AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500...THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL.
CONSIDERED GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THE 05.00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE
FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS DRY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER
TO THE MORE ROBUST FORCING. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AT 11Z AN AREA OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM NEAR KISN
TO LAKE SAKAKAWEA...AND SOUTH TO NEW SALEM AND HETTINGER.
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING FROM NEW SALEM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO
HETTINGER. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD
SLOWLY TODAY. THIS WILL KEEP VCTS AT KBIS AND KMOT THROUGH AROUND
22Z...AND AT KJMS FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z.
LATE TONIGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MAINLY AFT 06Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1011 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AGAIN POINT TO AN EARLY WARMUP ON TAP
FOR THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS ANCHORED IN PLACE
ALOFT. SOUTHERLY FLOW IS BRINGING IN GULF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. RADAR SHOWED VERY LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH
A FEW CELLS NOTED WEST AND NORTHWEST OF PALACIOS.
SEA BREEZE SHOULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...WITH RIDGING HIGH
IN PLACE...SLIGHT POPS WILL GENERALLY HOLD I-10 CORRIDOR AREA AND
SOUTHWARD. CANNOT RULE OUT A RENEGADE STORM NORTH PART OF AREA
DURING MAXIMUM HEATING THIS AFTERNOON.
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. 06
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
AVIATION...
NAM 12 AND THE GFS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE NAM 12 HAS PW VALUES SURGING TO 2.3 INCHES THIS AFTN WHILE THE
GFS IS AROUND 1.90 INCHES. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
NAM SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES INCLUDING KIAH. PRECIP SHOULD END BETWEEN 23-01Z. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. 43
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH BROAD RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY
WAS SEEN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS PER GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED
FROM 2-2.2 INCHES OVER CROCKETT/TRINITY/POLK COUNTIES TO 1.5
INCHES AROUND MATAGORDA BAY... WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES JUST OFFSHORE.
FOR TODAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN ADVECT THE HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR OVER THE GULF INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. CARRYING THE HIGHEST CHANCES /20 POPS/ ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY CELL
OR TWO PUSHING NORTH OF THAT AREA. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
YESTERDAY TOPPED OUT AT 108 AT GALVESTON AND WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY... ANTICIPATE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE NEAR YESTERDAY/S AND
AGAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER... WILL BE ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL PREVENT SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE EVENING
HOURS... BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NCEP 4 KM WRF ACTUALLY
BRINGS A THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THE PINEY WOODS
REGION AS THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THIS MODEL IS INITIALIZED FROM THE 40 KM NAM... WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN AN OUTLIER WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRAJECTORY FOR
THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. 00Z GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE
NAM/ DID NOT INITIALIZE TOO TERRIBLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AND
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
REGION TO RAISE ANY REAL CONCERNS FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING...
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER WARM AND
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... CENTERING OVER EASTERN
NM/WEST TX ON THURSDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POTENTIALLY NEEDED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND... THE
UPPER RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER NORTH/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND PROLONGS
THE HEAT WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 100S THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND WILL WANT TO TAKE
EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT HEAT ILLNESSES. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES ATTEMPT TO BRING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE PROMISE FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SUBTLE DIURNAL VARIATIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AT NIGHT AND A BRIEF S-SW COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION EACH MORNING. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 100 78 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 79 98 80 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 91 82 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
704 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35 TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z AS THEY BOUNCE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT TO VFR WITHIN THE HOUR...SO WILL AMEND TAFS AS NECESSARY
IF THIS OCCURS. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AT ONE OR TWO OF THE I-35 SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TREK BACK TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING LOW CLOUDS DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS MIXING WILL
EFFICIENTLY TAKE PLACE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO AVERAGE ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 102 IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 111 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND GET COMFY OVER
TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES LOOK TO INCREASE
ABOUT 7-8 DAM FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN SATURDAY
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE BUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE PLATEAU. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME HINTS AT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE SEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF.
HOWEVER...RATHER THAN COOL THE AREA...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SERVE
TO ONLY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND RAISE MAX
TEMPS TO AT OR JUST ABOVE RECORD HIGHS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. BASED
OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN ZONES
AND COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 74 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 77 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 77 99 77 101 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...LH
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TB3
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
628 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.AVIATION...
NAM 12 AND THE GFS NOT IN THE BEST AGREEMENT AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE NAM 12 HAS PW VALUES SURGING TO 2.3 INCHES THIS AFTN WHILE THE
GFS IS AROUND 1.90 INCHES. THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO SUPPORT THE
NAM SO LEANED IN THAT DIRECTION. HAVE ADDED VCSH FOR SOUTHERN TAF
SITES INCLUDING KIAH. PRECIP SHOULD END BETWEEN 23-01Z. VFR CONDS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION. 43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH BROAD RIDGING IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND TROUGHING ACROSS THE EAST.
THE EXTREMELY MOIST AIRMASS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE REGION YESTERDAY
WAS SEEN PUSHING INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS PER GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY
THIS MORNING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED
FROM 2-2.2 INCHES OVER CROCKETT/TRINITY/POLK COUNTIES TO 1.5
INCHES AROUND MATAGORDA BAY... WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER PWATS AROUND
1.7 TO 1.9 INCHES JUST OFFSHORE.
FOR TODAY... SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL AGAIN ADVECT THE HIGHER
MOISTURE AIR OVER THE GULF INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. CARRYING THE HIGHEST CHANCES /20 POPS/ ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY CELL
OR TWO PUSHING NORTH OF THAT AREA. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES
YESTERDAY TOPPED OUT AT 108 AT GALVESTON AND WITH SIMILAR
TEMPERATURES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY... ANTICIPATE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO BE NEAR YESTERDAY/S AND
AGAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER... WILL BE ISSUING A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE HEAT FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL PREVENT SEA BREEZE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM MAKING IT TOO FAR INTO THE EVENING
HOURS... BUT WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO WATCH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE NCEP 4 KM WRF ACTUALLY
BRINGS A THIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO THE PINEY WOODS
REGION AS THIS SHORTWAVE DIVES TOWARDS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. THIS MODEL IS INITIALIZED FROM THE 40 KM NAM... WHICH HAS
CONSISTENTLY BEEN AN OUTLIER WITH THE SOUTHERNMOST TRAJECTORY FOR
THIS SHORTWAVE OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS. 00Z GUIDANCE /INCLUDING THE
NAM/ DID NOT INITIALIZE TOO TERRIBLY WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THIS
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER... GIVEN THAT THIS SOLUTION IS AN OUTLIER AND
THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE KEEPS THE SHORTWAVE TOO FAR NORTH OF THE
REGION TO RAISE ANY REAL CONCERNS FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING...
KEEPING THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER WARM AND
QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED FOR THE REGION.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO
SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... CENTERING OVER EASTERN
NM/WEST TX ON THURSDAY. INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SERVE TO
INCREASE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAT ADVISORIES
POTENTIALLY NEEDED AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. BY THE WEEKEND... THE
UPPER RIDGE PARKS ITSELF OVER NORTH/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND PROLONGS
THE HEAT WITH INLAND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE LOW 100S THIS
WEEKEND. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND WILL WANT TO TAKE
EXTREME CAUTION TO PREVENT HEAT ILLNESSES. LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT
WEEK... MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DOES ATTEMPT TO BRING A FRONTAL
SYSTEM OUT OF THE GREAT PLAINS WITH THE PROMISE FOR LOW RAIN
CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HUFFMAN
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE SUBTLE DIURNAL VARIATIONS WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS AT NIGHT AND A BRIEF S-SW COMPONENT TO THE
DIRECTION EACH MORNING. 43
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 100 78 101 / 10 10 10 10 0
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 79 98 80 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 91 82 92 / 10 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...43
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1247 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
CURRENTLY...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS AT THIS TIME.
PRIMARY FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TS INITIATION OVER THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS NEAR THE
CO/KS. OUTFLOW GENERATED BY AN MCS LAST NIGHT HAS PUSHED MUCH
HIGHER DEW POINTS INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH CURRENT READINGS
NEAR THE MID 60S. AS A RESULT CAPE VALUES NEAR THE BOARDER ARE
REACHING 3000 J/KG PER SPC MESOSCALE ANALYSIS AND LASTEST LAPS
DATA. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TO
WORK WITH THIS AFTERNOON...SO HAVE KEPT SILENT POPS NEAR THE
BOARDER...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG IF CAPE IS REALIZED. LUKINBEAL
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
...HOTTER TODAY WITH ONLY SPARSE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...
CONVECTION YESTERDAY WAS VIRTUALLY NIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...AND TODAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH. FIRST IS THE PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH OCCURRED BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING. 00Z RUNS DID NOT
ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DETAIL. OF THEM...NAM12 SEEMED TO DO
THE BEST...AND HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON AS WELL. NAM...HRRR
AND RAP13 ALL MIX OUT THIS SHALLOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF 50+ DEW POINTS FARTHER TO THE EAST
NEAR THE KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM AS TROF ACROSS CA RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER CO AHEAD OF IT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MID AND HIGH BASED. SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION SPARSE AND HIGH BASED...THUS MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AT BEST...AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
IF IT CAN GET GOING AT ALL. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT...BUT STILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHALLENGE AREA WILL BE ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS SE CO. SOME OF
THE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY THE RATON RIDGE REGION.
CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...AS MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MIX
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE NAM WHICH HOLDS ON TO SOME LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS
BACA COUNTY. HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM12. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SILENT POPS OUT ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS FOR NOW.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...A LATER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO BUMP POPS
UP A TAD. IF CAPES CAN STAY HIGH ENOUGH...AND SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM...THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM IN THIS AREA...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 35 KTS. BUT WE SEEM TO BE LACKING
MUCH OF A TRIGGER IN THE WAY OF A DISTURBANCE...AND MODELS TEND TO
OVERDO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CASES LIKE THESE...SO WILL STICK WITH
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. THIS AGREES WELL WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK FOR
NOW...WHICH DOESN`T HAVE THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AT THIS POINT EITHER.
TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE MORE MILD FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARDS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
...MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
PROVIDES FAIRLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. MODELS PUTTING OUT ALMOST NO
RAINFALL...SO THE FORECAST WITH SILENT POPS TO LOW GRADE ISOLATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20C...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 100
DEGREES F IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND 90S ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REALIZED.
FRIDAY...TRANSITION BEGINS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN US
NUDGES THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE.
SATURDAY...WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER DAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING...AGAIN ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TICK DOWN A LITTLE
MORE.
SUNDAY...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE IN
PLAY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME SPREAD
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPARSE...THEREFORE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS FOR KCOS AND KPUB BEFORE SHIFTING TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN
DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. KALS WILL
SEE WINDS OUT OF THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KNOTS. LUKINBEAL
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AL/PE
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AL/PE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1124 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
...HOTTER TODAY WITH ONLY SPARSE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
POSSIBLE...
CONVECTION YESTERDAY WAS VIRTUALLY NIL ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO...AND TODAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE STILL
SOME FORECAST CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH. FIRST IS THE PUSH OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHICH OCCURRED BEHIND AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH MOVED THROUGH LAST EVENING. 00Z RUNS DID NOT
ALL HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DETAIL. OF THEM...NAM12 SEEMED TO DO
THE BEST...AND HRRR APPEARS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON AS WELL. NAM...HRRR
AND RAP13 ALL MIX OUT THIS SHALLOW LEVEL LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE I-
25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT
DIFFER WITH THE PERSISTENCE OF 50+ DEW POINTS FARTHER TO THE EAST
NEAR THE KS BORDER.
MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE ALOFT WILL HOLD FIRM AS TROF ACROSS CA RIDES
OVER THE TOP OF IT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND WY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER CO AHEAD OF IT...THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
PRETTY MID AND HIGH BASED. SFC DEW POINTS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD DROP BACK INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S AGAIN...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP ANY CONVECTION SPARSE AND HIGH BASED...THUS MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE ONLY SPOTTY LIGHT RAINFALL AT BEST...AND ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS
IF IT CAN GET GOING AT ALL. WILL CUT BACK POPS A BIT...BUT STILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHER CHALLENGE AREA WILL BE ALONG A DRY LINE ACROSS SE CO. SOME OF
THE MODELS HINT AT DEVELOPING AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN MOST COUNTIES AND POTENTIALLY THE RATON RIDGE REGION.
CHANCES DO NOT LOOK ALL THAT GREAT...AS MAJORITY OF THE MODELS MIX
OUT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S. EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS THE NAM WHICH HOLDS ON TO SOME LOWER 60 DEW POINTS ACROSS
BACA COUNTY. HRRR SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS THE NAM12. HAVE
INTRODUCED SOME SILENT POPS OUT ACROSS THE FAR EAST PLAINS FOR NOW.
IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...A LATER UPDATE MAY BE NEEDED TO BUMP POPS
UP A TAD. IF CAPES CAN STAY HIGH ENOUGH...AND SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE CAN INITIATE A THUNDERSTORM...THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG STORM IN THIS AREA...AS DEEP LAYER
SHEARS WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 35 KTS. BUT WE SEEM TO BE LACKING
MUCH OF A TRIGGER IN THE WAY OF A DISTURBANCE...AND MODELS TEND TO
OVERDO CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN CASES LIKE THESE...SO WILL STICK WITH
SILENT POPS FOR NOW. THIS AGREES WELL WITH SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK FOR
NOW...WHICH DOESN`T HAVE THUNDER OUTLOOKED FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST
PLAINS AT THIS POINT EITHER.
TONIGHT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MAY BE MORE MILD FOR THE I-25
CORRIDOR DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW TOWARDS MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS. -KT
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
...MONSOON MOISTURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...
THURSDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAINLY DRY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO
PROVIDES FAIRLY DRY WESTERLY FLOW. MODELS PUTTING OUT ALMOST NO
RAINFALL...SO THE FORECAST WITH SILENT POPS TO LOW GRADE ISOLATED
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LOOKS GOOD. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
FORECAST TO BE BELOW 20C...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 100
DEGREES F IN THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND 90S ELSEWHERE ON THE
PLAINS. HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE HIGH VALLEYS AND 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE REALIZED.
FRIDAY...TRANSITION BEGINS AS A SHORTWAVE OVER THE WESTERN US
NUDGES THE UPPER RIDGE EAST AND BRINGS THE MONSOON MOISTURE INTO
THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY
BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO KEEP MAIN FOCUS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND A FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE LOWER...DUE TO
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LOWERING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURE.
SATURDAY...WITH THE MONSOON MOISTURE OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER DAY
WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...AND THE THREAT FOR SOME FLASH FLOODING...AGAIN ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TICK DOWN A LITTLE
MORE.
SUNDAY...GFS AND EUROPEAN MODELS SUGGEST THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW WILL OCCUR AND
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY. SO SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIATE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REDEVELOP OVER THE ROCKIES. WITH SOME MONSOON MOISTURE IN
PLAY...AND UPSLOPE FLOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...THERE WILL BE DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS...DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH SOME SPREAD
INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS. -TLM-
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND ACTIVITY WILL BE
SPARSE...THEREFORE STORMS ARE UNLIKELY TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10-15
KTS FOR KCOS AND KPUB BEFORE SHIFTING TO A DIURNALLY DRIVEN
DRAINAGE FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TO WEST OVERNIGHT. KALS WILL
SEE WINDS OUT OF THE SW DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY
UNDER 15 KNOTS. LUKINBEAL
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...TM
AVIATION...AL/PE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
404 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW FOR A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN
AREAS. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALONG
WITH COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 404 PM EDT...A LARGE CLOSED OFF LOW AT 500 HPA IS SITUATED
DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE REGION OVER NORTH CENTRAL QUEBEC. THE TROUGH
AXIS HAS BEEN MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS
ALLOWED FOR SOME BRIEF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS TO DEVELOP. A FEW
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. WILL
MENTION SLIGHT CHC OF THUNDER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THUNDER
HAS BEEN HARD TO COME BY TODAY DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY.
THE 3KM HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NEAR LAKE
ONTARIO WILL WORK TOWARDS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...BUT WILL START
TO DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...AND THE BEST FORCING SHIFTING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
REGION. AS A RESULT...WILL ALLOW POPS TO DROP OFF BY MIDNIGHT FOR
THE WHOLE AREA. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE AREA FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A GOOD
MAJORITY OF THE REGION. TEMPS LOOK COMFORTABLE AND COOL...WITH
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S. SOME UPPER 40S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER QUEBEC WILL SHIFT TOWARDS
ATLANTIC CANADA ON THURSDAY. HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY START TO RISE
AT 500 HPA...ALTHOUGH A CONTINUED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPS SOMEWHAT ON THE COOLER SIDE.
A WEAK WAVE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
PRETTY CONSISTENT ON KEEPING THIS FEATURE SOUTH OF OUR AREA FOR
FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH
THIS TIME. SKY COVER GENERALLY LOOK PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLEAR.
HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 70S...WITH
A FEW SPOTS NEAR 80 IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK
TO BE IN THE 50S...WITH SOME COOLER 40S FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN...ESP
OVER THE CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS. DEWPOINTS WILL BE VERY COMFORTABLE
EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT RELATIVELY QUIET AS A COASTAL
STORM PASSES TO THE EAST OF THE REGION...BUT THEN BECOME
INCREASINGLY UNSETTLED HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE REGION.
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND
LOOKS TO START ON AN EXCELLENT NOTE...WITH DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY
SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES SATURDAY. MEANWHILE...A COASTAL STORM WILL
BE TAKING SHAPE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST...AND BEGIN TO TRACK
NORTHEAST UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
BASED ON THE LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR THIS COASTAL STORM...WHICH LOOKS TO BECOME QUITE IMPRESSIVE FOR
EARLY AUGUST STANDARDS...IS THAT IT WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST OFF
THE COAST TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACTS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. REGARDLESS...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES HINT AT A
SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK...WHICH WOULD BRING THE WESTERN EDGE OF
RAIN SHOWERS INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MAYBE FAR EASTERN NEW
YORK.
HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO TAKE A BLENDED APPROACH
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK THAT THE COASTAL STORM WILL TAKE.
REGARDLESS OF THE EVENTUAL TRACK...THERE IS FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE
THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE REGION AS IT TAKES A MILLER TYPE A
TRACK/SOUTHERN STREAM DOMINATED SYSTEM/EAST OF CAPE COD.
AS THE COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SUNDAY
NIGHT THE REGION WILL BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IT
APPEARS THAT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND PERHAPS MOST OF MONDAY...WILL BE DRY
BEFORE THE WEATHER TURNS FOR THE WORSE MONDAY NIGHT.
HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE LINGERING
SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND WITH A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THE 12Z ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT JUST EAST OF THE REGION AND DEVELOPS
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WOULD BRING A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE
REGION...WITH THE 12Z GFS HAVING A DRY SCENARIO. IT IS STILL TOO
EARLY TO TELL EXACTLY WHAT WILL HAPPEN BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE LOW 70S TO LOW 80S...WITH A FEW UPPER 60S ACROSS THE
HIGH PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. JUST SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AND INDICATING VCSH AT
KGFL...KALB... AND KPSF. CHANCES ARE MUCH LESS AT KPOU.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY
SCATTERED-BROKEN AT 5000 FEET. THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO BURN OFF QUICKLY TOWARDS 00Z/THU.
SOME PATCHY MVFR/IFR MIST/FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KGFL/KPSF
ESPECIALLY DEPENDING IF ANY RAINFALL OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY DRIFT IN AFTER 06Z AT ALL THE TAF SITES.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 8-13 KT WITH SOME GUSTS
AROUND 20 KT AT KALB/KPSF. THE WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 10 KT OR LESS
TOWARDS 00Z/THU....AND BECOME LIGHT TO CALM AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE NORTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS TOMORROW MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ASIDE FROM A STRAY SHOWER THIS EVENING...IT LOOKS DRY OVERNIGHT. RH
VALUES WILL BE 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH SOME PATCHY FOG AND
DEW FORMATION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT ON BOTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THE LOWEST VALUES WILL BE ACROSS THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE AT 5 TO
10 MPH ON THURSDAY...AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND 5 MPH ON
FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
JUST A STRAY LOCALIZED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY
FOR NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. JUST A STRAY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH MOST AREAS STAYING
COMPLETELY DRY. THIS WILL ALLOW RIVER LEVELS TO REMAIN STEADY OR
SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS
SHORT TERM...FRUGIS
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
140 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. LOW
PRESSURE OVER NORTH CAROLINA THURSDAY NIGHT SLOWLY TRACKS EAST
NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND REACHING THE GULF OF MAINE ON SUNDAY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND NOT DIRECTLY
AFFECT OUR REGION. A WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK WITH SOME DIURNAL CU FORMING FROM
DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MAX TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED A FEW DEGREES. THE GREATER
WESTERLY FLOW HAS AIDED DOWNSLOPING...ALLOWING COASTAL AREAS TO
REACH HIGHER TEMPERATURES WITH LESS MARINE INFLUENCE.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION.
ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LIMITED
INSTABILITY...LATEST HI RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE HRRR AND 4-KM
NAM CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HIGHS TODAY CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S. MAV/MET GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURES.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. AS
IT DOES...THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE SHORT TERM.
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. LITTLE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS FOR TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT FALL INTO THE
50S AND 60S...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE
NWP GUIDANCE...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA. HAVE LOWERED POPS TO 20
PERCENT (FROM LIKELY). HAVE ONLY KEPT THE 20 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT
FOR UNCERTAINTY FOR POSSIBILITY OF FLIP FLOP NWP...THOUGH THAT
WOULD SEEM VERY UNLIKELY. CALLED IT LIGHT RAIN AS AT WORSE WE`D BE
ON THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.
21Z SREF...NCEP AND CANADIAN DETERMINISTIC RUNS ALONG WITH 00Z GEFS
ALL SUPPORT A DRY FCST. HAVE ALSO RAISE TEMPS FOR FRIDAY AS A
RESULT.
FLOW AROUND THE OFF SHORE LOW IS NORTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THUS
TEMPS RUN ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
A WARM FRONT APPROACHES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MORE HUMID...BUT WITH
TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
LOW PRESSURE APPEARS POSSIBLE FOR MID WEEK...BUT WITH LOTS OF
UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK SFC TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS EVENING. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
MENTIONING IN THE TAF. WILL CARRY A VFR FORECAST...BUT AMDS
POSSIBLE IF SHRA/TSRA LOOKS TO IMPACT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL.
W-NW WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...POSSIBLY UP TO 23 KT
AT COASTAL TERMINALS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT THIS EVENING
AND SHIFT CLOSER TO THE NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT ACROSS KNYC TERMINALS
AND TO 5 KT OR LESS ELSEWHERE. SEA BREEZE WITH SW FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED AT KBDR/KGON...BUT WINDS WILL SHIFT GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON BEHIND PASSAGE OF SFC TROUGH.
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SW LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AT 00Z COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR SO.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AT 00Z COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR SO.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AT 00Z COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR SO.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AT 00Z COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR SO.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT AT 00Z COULD BE OFF BY
AN HOUR OR SO.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND SHIFT THIS EVENING COULD BE
OFF BY AN HOUR OR SO.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON...VFR. WINDS SHIFT FROM NW TO SW AT 10 KT OR
LESS. SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR. DIMINISHING WINDS.
.FRIDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
.SATURDAY...SUB-VFR POSSIBLE IN -RA. INCREASING NE WINDS.
.SUNDAY...VFR.
.MONDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA LATE.
&&
.MARINE...
FORECAST REMAINS MAINLY ON TRACK. EXPECTING OCEAN SEAS TO STAY
BELOW 5 FT WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WATERS WILL ALLOW FOR THESE SUB-
SCA CONDITIONS. THESE SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY.
LONG TERM...LOW PRESSURE PASSES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE FLOW IS EXPECT FOR THE PERIOD. WINDS INCREASE
TO PERHAPS MINIMAL SMALL CRAFT LEVELS (GUSTS TO 25 KT)...THOUGH THIS
MAY BE TOO HIGH. SEAS THOUGH ON THE OCEAN WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...BC/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...TONGUE
AVIATION...MPS
MARINE...BC/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...BC/TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
256 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
RATHER DIFFUSE WEATHER PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE MIDWEST. HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...WITH AN MCS
MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING PRECIP ALONG A QUASI
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE...ALTHOUGH THERE HAS
BEEN SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THIS PARTICULAR FEATURE WILL SET UP.
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN ENHANCING THAT ACTIVITY AS THE MCV FROM
THE ACTIVITY IN CENTRAL MO MAKES ITS WAY TO THE EAST. WITH THE
MODELS TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH, HAVE SOME CONCERNS AS TO GOING TOO
FAR NORTH WITH THE HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WITH PRECIPITATION
ABSENT IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND POTENTIALLY FURTHER
SOUTH, THE MODELS HAVE OVERDONE SOME OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.
HAVE DROPPED THE DEWPOINTS A FEW DEGREES TO COUNTER THIS NORTH OF I-
72.
&&
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHOWER/STORM CHANCES MAY LINGER TO START THE DAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, UNTIL A WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, THE
BULK OF THE UPSTREAM PRECIPITATION IS TIED TO A MCV MOVING ACROSS
MISSOURI. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, MOST OF THURSDAY WILL WIND UP
BEING DRY.
BEHIND THIS INITIAL SYSTEM, DRY WEATHER HAD BEEN ANTICIPATED UNTIL
AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WAS PROGGED TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT A STRONGER
WAVE MAY TRACK DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING RISK OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
THE BEST CHANCES WITH THIS FEATURE APPEAR TO BE THURSDAY NIGHT
UPSTREAM ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED INTO
THE AREA. THE DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THIS JET, COUPLED WITH THE
SHEARING OUT OF THE WAVE, SHOULD KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE
LOCALLY.
UPSTREAM MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE
IS FAR FROM UNANIMOUS IN THE DEVELOPMENT OR WHERE IT MAY TRACK,
POSSIBLY PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THEN, BEHIND THIS POTENTIAL MCS, THE NEXT MAJOR WAVE/FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM TO
FINISH OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH HIGHS
IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY AHEAD OF THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY FRONT, WITH LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS LIKELY IN ITS WAKE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIP IN THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND NOT IMPACTING THE ILX
TERMINALS WITH ANY PERSISTENCE. SO HAVE KEPT TO THE VC MENTION FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SPI AND DEC MOST LIKELY TO SEE TS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. THROUGH 06Z, HRRR IS DRY AND STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT NORTHERLY EXTENT OF PRECIP BEFORE 12Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND, MODELS LOW LEVEL RH IS WAY OVERDONE WITHOUT
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MODELS DROPPING CIGS TO
IFR...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND ONLY DROPPING SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TO BORDERLINE MVFR UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS,
INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HJS
LONG TERM...BAK
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1251 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1056 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FA THIS MORNING WITH
MAINLY CIRRUS DOMINATING THE SKIES. MODELS CONSISTENTLY TRENDING
SOUTH SO HAVE PARED BACK ON THE POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY
AS FAR AS THE NORTHERLY EXTENT OF THE CHANCE POPS. CANNOT RULE OUT
SOME SCT ACTIVITY ON THE OUTFLOW OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH SO
WILL NOT REMOVE RAIN CHANCES ALTOGETHER AT THIS TIME.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA SO THE LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT IS FORECAST TO RIDE ALONG THE FRONT TODAY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH TODAY...KEEPING PCPN LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH
AS WELL. SO...POPS/WX FOR TODAY HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTH SOME SO
THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74 WILL ONLY HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PCPN TODAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PCPN WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST THIS
MORNING AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. NOT REAL CLOUDY OVER THE AREA CURRENTLY...BUT AS THINGS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TO MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER
MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE QUITE LIGHT BUT BECOME LIGHT
EASTERLY DURING THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN
TODAY AND SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 80S. LOWER HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
SOUTH WHERE MORE PCPN AND THICKER CLOUDS WILL BE.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
00Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND FURTHER SOUTH WITH SHORT WAVE
AND ASSOCIATED QPF TONIGHT INTO THU AND ALSO TRENDING QUICKER ENDING
THE CHANCES OF RAIN BY THU AFTERNOON. NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ARE STILL
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE FURTHEST SOUTH GFS MODEL AND STAYED CLOSER TO
NAM/ECMWF MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLES. NORTHERN CWA FROM PEORIA NORTH
NOW LOOK DRY WHILE SOUTHEAST IL TO HAVE HIGHEST POPS OF 60-80% WHILE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HALF TO 1 INCH FROM I-70 SOUTH. THE HEAVIER RAINS
OF 1-2 INCHES NOW APPEARS TO BE SOUTH OF I-64 WHERE FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL BE HIGHER TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.
00Z FORECAST MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER
TEXAS LATE THIS WEEK WHILE UPPER LEVEL TROF OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
SO IL GETS ESTABLISH IN A NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVES AND POSSIBLE MCS TO
AFFECT PARTS OF THE REGION AS THEY MOVE AROUND TOP OF UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE (RING OF FIRE). HAVE SLIGHT CHANCES OF CONVECTION WEST OF I-57
ON FRIDAY WHILE BETTER CHANCES IN SW IL INTO SE MO WHERE POSSIBLE
MCS INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND NORTH OF I-80 WHERE A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TRACKS EAST INTO WI AND NORTHERN IL BY 00Z/SAT. ECMWF MODEL
KEEPS QPF NORTH AND NE OF CENTRAL IL FRI NIGHT AS DISTURBANCE TRACKS
EAST ACROSS MI WHILE GFS HAS QPF AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL IL. ELECTED
TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SAT. HIGHS FRI IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S AND MID TO UPPER 80S SAT AND RATHER HUMID WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE RIDGING ESE FROM IA INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN IL SAT
NIGHT INTO TUE TO BRING A POSSIBLE MCS WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SIDED WITH WETTER ECMWF MODEL WHILE GFS MODEL IS
TOTALLY DRY OVER CWA SAT NIGHT AND JUST HAS LIGHT QPF PATCHES IN NW
CWA SUNDAY. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S SUNDAY AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW A COLD FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD OVER CENTRAL IL DURING MONDAY KEEPING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AROUND. THEN DRIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO IA/MO BY TUE
NIGHT/WED. HIGHS IN THE 80S MONDAY THEN A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID
TUE/WED BEHIND THE FRONT.
DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE ROCKIES. TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE PRECIP IN THE SOUTH
ASSOCIATED WITH A QUASI STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PUSHED THE
MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP TO THE SOUTH AND NOT IMPACTING THE ILX
TERMINALS WITH ANY PERSISTENCE. SO HAVE KEPT TO THE VC MENTION FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SPI AND DEC MOST LIKELY TO SEE TS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORMS. THROUGH 06Z, HRRR IS DRY AND STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT NORTHERLY EXTENT OF PRECIP BEFORE 12Z.
WITH THIS IN MIND, MODELS LOW LEVEL RH IS WAY OVERDONE WITHOUT
INCREASED MOISTURE FROM PRECIP. ALTHOUGH MODELS DROPPING CIGS TO
IFR...HAVE SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND ONLY DROPPING SOUTHERN
TERMINALS TO BORDERLINE MVFR UNTIL THE PRECIP ACTUALLY OCCURS,
INCREASING THE DEWPOINTS.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...AUTEN
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...HJS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
251 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL BE LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
NORTHWEST CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT...THE EXTENT OF THE
FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...AND ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY. SATELLITE SHOWING
MODELS INITIALLY WELL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THE SREF WAS DOING
A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS AND RAP ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. THE GFS AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER
THAN THE SREF AND NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.
TONIGHT...A SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS SET UP ALONG THE WESTERN END OF
THE AREA WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. THAT DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH LITTLE TO NO CAP. HOWEVER...THERE IS MUCH AT MID TO
UPPER LEVELS UNTIL THE MID EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH STARTS MOVING THROUGH IN THE LATER HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THERE
ALSO LOOKS TO BE SOME WEAK JET LIFT AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST
CORNER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT.
INITIALLY THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN PRODUCING
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NOW
THE RAP AND HRRR ARE SUPPORTING SOME ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IN THE
AREA OF CONVERGENCE THAT IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW. THIS AREA THEN
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LIFT AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ALOFT INCREASE A GREAT DEAL IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE AREA DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MODELS WOULD INDICATE
A STRONG CAP ALOFT BUT MORE THAN ONE PIECE OF GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING SOME LIGHT QPF. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS
ACTIVITY. IF THE LIFT BREAKS THE CAP...THE INSTABILITY AND PWS ARE
RATHER IMPRESSIVE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE SOME STRONG
STORMS WITH SOME HEAVY RAINFALL.
THURSDAY...THE NAM AND OTHER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEVELOPS
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
EARLY IN THE DAY. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE INSTABILITY AND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS THROUGH THE MORNING. WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL.
SOME FOG AND ESPECIALLY STRATUS WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
THE MORNING. THIS WILL BE IN ADVANCE OF A BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH.
MODELS BRING THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT WOULD INDICATE THAT NOT MUCH
COOLING WILL OCCUR WITH THIS SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK FRONT. THIS DOES
MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND STRONG RIDGE TO
OUR SOUTH.
SO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE TRICKY DUE TO
THE VARIABLE NATURE OF THE CLOUD COVER...SOME PRECIPITATION
POSSIBLE...AND THE BOUNDARY TIMING. SO WENT COOLER IN THE EAST
WHERE THE CLOUD COVER LASTS LONGER AND THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
THE COOLEST. HOTTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IT
DOES APPEAR.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 116 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
DRY CONDITIONS. NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TOP THE RIDGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING A GOOD CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE NOT OVERWHELMING...THEY ARE
PROBABLY SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. NAM PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES INCREASE TO 1-1.5 INCHES BY 00Z/SAT AND STORM MOTIONS WILL
BE NORTHEAST AT AROUND 20KTS...NEITHER PARAMETER REALLY SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME
LOCAL DELUGES...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS WHERE
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER.
THE PATTERN DOESNT CHANGE MUCH ON SATURDAY WITH A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND EMBEDDED WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
SEVERE WITH SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FORECAST ONCE AGAIN.
WILD CARD WILL BE LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES WHICH MAY BE
INFLUENCED BY PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION AND WILL BE HARD TO PIN
DOWN AT THIS TIME...BUT MAY PROVE TO BE PIVOTAL FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD SHARPLY
NORTHWARD WITH THE RIDGE AXIS BY WEDNESDAY CENTERED OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS FROM CANADA TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. FOR THIS REASON AM
SOMEWHAT SKEPTICAL OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE DERIVED BLENDS USED TO INITIATE THE EXTENDED THE PERIODS.
NONETHELESS...SURFACE PROGS SHOW A CONSISTENT MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW INTO THE REGION WITH RESULTANT INSTABILITY EACH DAY. SO THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED FOR LIFT AND ANY MINOR DISTURBANCE WHICH
MAY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE RIDGE MAY BE ENOUGH FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP. HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE RATHER LOW UNDER THE
RIDGE SO SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE
SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THEY LOOK
TO BE TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF BOTH SITES SO I LEFT ANY MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER THIS WILL TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. BETWEEN
06Z AND 09Z...SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA AND
MAYBE SOME FOG. SO AT THIS TIME INSERTED MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH
SITES. DID INTRODUCE FOG AT BOTH SITES WITH KMCK HAVING THE LOWER
VISIBILITY. SOME INDICATION THAT THE VISIBILITY COULD BE LOWER...
ESPECIALLY AT KMCK AND THIS WILL TO BE ADDRESSED IN LATER TAF
ISSUANCES.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WICHITA KS
1256 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHOWERS & A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PUSH SE THIS MORNING. AS
OF 10 AM...MOST RAINFALL WAS OCCURRING OVER SOUTHEAST KS WITH A
CELL THAT DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN BUTLER COUNTY. WITH THE MODEST
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO PUSH ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER
S ACROSS EASTERN OK...AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS
CONTINUES TO STABILIZE. AS SUCH CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN WOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. INHERITED FORECAST DEPICTED
THIS SCENARIO. ALL PUBLIC PRODUCTS...INCLUDING THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK...HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THIS MORNING:
ANTICIPATING SCATTERED TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF A
LINE EXTENDING FROM GREAT BEND- WICHITA-ARKANSAS CITY...GRADUALLY
EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY IS IN RESPONSE TO MODEST/STRONG 850-700MB WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...AMPLE
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBO (INCLUDING DECENT
0-3KM SHEAR FOR AN ORGANIZED WIND THREAT) SHOULD SUPPORT A HANDFUL
OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS...CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. IN FACT...POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING:
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MORNING`S CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW PUSHES. IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW PUSHES WELL SOUTH INTO
OK...AS ADVERTISED BY THE NAM...THEN ADDITIONAL PM STORM CHANCES
WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL. HOWEVER...THE LESS BULLISH RAP WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM CHANCE OVER
SOUTHEAST KS LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...AS IT KEEPS THE
EFFECTIVE FRONTAL ZONE A BIT FURTHER NORTH OVER SOUTHEAST KS. ALL-
IN-ALL THOUGH...BRUNT OF LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS/MOVES EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD PUSH THE CENTURY MARK
BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE OK BORDER OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL
KS...WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 105 DEGREES. SLIGHT TO MODEST
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EXIST BOTH DAYS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF KS THURSDAY EVENING-NIGHT...AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS
FRIDAY EVENING-NIGHT.
ADK
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SATURDAY-TUESDAY:
CONTINUED HOT SUMMER WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SATURDAY-
SUNDAY...AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS...AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. DEWPOINT MAY BE TEMPERED SOME...ALTHOUGH HEAT INDICES IN THE
100-105 DEGREE RANGE (IF NOT HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST KS)
REMAIN PLAUSIBLE. ANY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SATURDAY-SUNDAY WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN HALF OF KS AND NE DURING THE
EVENING-OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER TO NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS ALONG WITH STORM CHANCES SPREADING SOUTH IS SUPPORTED BY
THE MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE
DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...DRIVING
A COLD FRONT SOUTH. FOR NOW ONLY WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCES POPS
SUNDAY EVENING-MONDAY.
ADK
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
CIGS FROM 1000-2500FT ARE NO DOUBT THE CONCERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
& THIS EVENING. KICT IS ON THE SW PERIMETER OF THE STRATOCU DECK &
PER SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOULD DO SO THE REST OF THE AFTN. SKIES
SHOULD S-L-O-W-L-Y CLEAR IN A NW-SE MANNER AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE
GLIDES E ACRS CNTRL MO LATE THIS AFTN & EARLY THIS EVE. ANTICIPATE
ALL TERMINALS TO ACHIEVE VFR STATUS LATE THIS AFTN.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT 89 70 94 73 / 80 10 0 10
HUTCHINSON 87 68 94 71 / 70 10 0 10
NEWTON 84 69 91 71 / 80 10 10 10
ELDORADO 85 70 91 72 / 80 10 10 10
WINFIELD-KWLD 91 71 94 74 / 80 10 0 10
RUSSELL 86 66 94 69 / 50 0 10 10
GREAT BEND 88 67 95 70 / 30 0 10 10
SALINA 84 67 92 71 / 40 10 10 20
MCPHERSON 84 67 93 71 / 80 10 10 10
COFFEYVILLE 88 71 92 75 / 100 50 10 30
CHANUTE 85 70 90 72 / 90 40 10 30
IOLA 84 70 89 72 / 90 30 10 30
PARSONS-KPPF 86 71 91 74 / 100 40 10 30
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
127 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAD
TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST SLIGHTLY BASED ON HOURLY TRENDS.
INCREASING HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO HELP DAMPEN SOME OF
THE HEAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN OUR SOUTHWEST AS A STORM COMPLEX
MOVES SOLIDLY INTO CENTRAL KY AND AS A RESULT OF CONVECTION
FIRING OVER THE TN VALLEY. IN THE EAST...LINGERING STRATUS HAS
SLOWED DIURNAL RISES BUT TEMPERATURES WILL CATCH BACK UP TO
FORECASTED LEVELS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HOLD OFF JUST A BIT
LONGER IN THE NORTH AND EAST WITH MORE GRADUAL RISE IN TEMPS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1121 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATE THIS MORNING TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. ALSO
TWEAKED POPS AND SKY GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. LATEST HRRR BRINGS
ONGOING CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN KENTUCKY INTO OUR AREA BY LATE
TODAY...EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY...CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO OUR FORECAST AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3
AND 5 PM. OTHERWISE CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD POP UPS THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS WE APPROACH THE CONVECTIVE TEMP...ABOUT
86.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 816 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING FEATURE SOME AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SOME SLIGHT TO CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING BUT WITH A FEW RETURNS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL KY SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT FORECAST AS IS. SO WILL
ANTICIPATE INCREASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE AFTERNOON
APPROACHES WITH THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ARRIVING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE LATEST
OBS AND SENT THEM TO NDFD.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY CURRENTLY...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH KY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ACROSS
THE AREA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S. SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EARLY CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE DAY. WILL DEAL WITH SOME FOG IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS BURNS OFF JUST AFTER
14Z.
ALOFT...THE PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ROUNDING OUT JUST ALONG THE TN VALLEY.
HEADING INTO THE DAY A STRONG WAVE HAS TRAVERSED THE RIDGE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE AND NOW STREAKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THEN WESTERN KY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
ALREADY NOW INTO WESTERN KY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP INTO EASTERN KY BY 15Z. THE BETTER FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE
BEEN OFF ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS
UPSTREAM IN MO AND KS WOULD SUGGEST AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY
TODAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A TAD
OVER DONE...SUGGEST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN
THE 1.6 TO 2.0 RANGE. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TRAINING STORMS. A RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND
LACK OF WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUB SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE
BULK OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WAVE ARRIVES IN EAST KY.
CONCERNING TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...MODEL PROFILES FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD INDICATE QUITE A STEEP WARM LAYER...NEAR 2 INCH
PWATS...AND CAPE PROFILES EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ALONG THE COLUMN
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHILE STORM MOTION
WILL BE A BIT QUICKER AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE ALLOWING LESS RESIDENCE
TIME...THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED INGREDIENTS WILL BE ENOUGH TO SET
THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THUS...ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FROM THE DAYS HEATING...THOUGH LESS...WILL
ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
ONE FORECAST ISSUE CONCERNING CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE...SO
THIS WOULD MAKE PRECIP RATHER INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF ANY OF THIS DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME OR A COLD POOL
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BECOME A WIND THREAT BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 527 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A MODESTLY AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEFORE THE PATTERN
SHARPENS UP MORE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN FEATURES OF INTEREST
WILL BE A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE ARKLATEX REGION...BEFORE GRADUALLY
RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST ONCE AGAIN AND AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
PLAINS. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING IN THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE OFF THE COAST...BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING REPLACED WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE INTENSIFIES AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGIONS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DETAILS ON HOW
ALL OF THIS PLAYS OUT STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE CONTINUED
TO STICK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE APPROACH.
A TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SHIFTING THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
DECREASE...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER WILL
RESUME ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND...AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL THEN RETURN
FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE DEEPER TROUGHING SWINGS THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER HUMIDITY ON THE HORIZON BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 127 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. COMPLEX OF
STORMS CROSSING CENTRAL KY AND ACTIVITY DRIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO
THE FORECAST DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME...
AFFECTING OUR SOUTHWESTERN MOST TERMINALS FIRST...THEN SPREADING
NORTHEAST. INCREASED COVERAGE WILL BEGIN LATER TONIGHT AS A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOOK FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
RAIN AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS A STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. EXPECT
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THURSDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-
083>088-104-106>120.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...RAY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW
UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. THERE IS AS MUCH FOG AS IS LIKELY
TO FORM BY NOW...AND IS FAIRLY PATCHY IN NATURE...EVEN IF
VISIBILITIES ARE PRETTY LOW. VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM NOW
ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE FOCUS IS ON PCPN CHANCES AND RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS DELAYED THE TIMING WITH WHICH PCPN
MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO WAS ABLE TO DELAY THE PCPN
CHANCES...RESULTING IN HOLDING THE ONSET OF PCPN OFF UNTIL VERY
LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE
MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BORDER IS RESULTING IN VERY LIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. THE RELATIVELY HUMID
CONDITIONS COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG UNTIL THE RISING SUN BURNS
IT OFF AFTER SUNRISE.
TODAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN THE DAKOTAS SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND. BOTH FEATURES
SHOULD HELP PREVENT ANY PCPN TODAY AND HELP KEEP THE NORTHLAND
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY. THE GFS/NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SOME
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH THE HRRR IS NOT HINTING AT
THIS. MOST MODELS AND MOS...INCLUDING THE GFS AND NAM MOS...ARE
GIVING HIGH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING THE 850 HPA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER...DECIDED TO LEAN ON THE WARMER NAM12 FOR
HIGHS TODAY. THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S...BUT IT WILL BE A BIT COOLER CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR DUE
TO A LAKE BREEZE.
TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE IN
MANITOBA THIS EVENING...AND MOVE EAST INTO NW ONTARIO OVERNIGHT
AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE WAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED A SMALL BUT
RELATIVELY DEEP LOW WHICH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA
TOWARDS NW ONTARIO. A 25 TO 35 KNOT SSW LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUMP
WARM AND HUMID AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MOST MODELS ARE
INDICATING PCPN DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO STAND OUT IN BEING FASTER AT
BRINGING THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND TO MUCH MORE
EASTERN EXTENT. DELAYED THE PCPN CHANCES BASED ON THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS OF THE GFS/SREF/GEM/GEMREG/NAM12/NCEPWRF MODELS...BUT
KEPT LOW CHANCES FARTHER EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ECMWF. THE
NAM12/GFS/SREF ARE INDICATING THERE COULD BE UP TO SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE WITH THE PCPN LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING...SO KEPT THUNDER IN THE FORECAST.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...THE MANITOBA LOW WILL MOVE
INTO NW ONTARIO...AND MOST PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...OTHER SHORTWAVES WILL BE CUTTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THESE
WAVES COULD HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
THE GFS/NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING MUCAPE COULD BUILD TO OVER 1000
J/KG OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER THOUGH. CONSIDERING THE CAPE
THOUGH...THERE COULD BE SHORT LIVED STRONGER CELLS OVER THE
WESTERN AND SW FORECAST AREA. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES...SO MODERATE TO BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...BUT COOLER BY THE LAKE DUE TO AN EVEN
STRONGER EAST TO NE FLOW OVER THE LAKE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THURSDAY NIGHT THE LEADING SHORTWAVE...850MB LOW...AND WAVE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ADVECTION MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
THIS SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY TIME
RANGE. THIS WILL PUT US INTO A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS FOR
FRIDAY...WITH CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HAVE PUT THEM INTO THE 70S FOR NOW...BUT
DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER MAY NEED TO BOOST THEM IF WE CAN GET SOME
MORE SUNSHINE. WE REMAIN IN THIS WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS WITH WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 TO CONTINUE WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE ROCKIES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND INTO NORTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES
DIVING THROUGH THE FLOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES TO GET A LITTLE COOLER FOR MONDAY BEFORE WARMING
AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
EXPECT VRF CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH THE EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
THE DAKOTAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST... BUT
WILL BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES... ESPECIALLY FOR DLH DUE TO AN
EXPECTED LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AFTER
08Z... A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHLAND INTRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST... WITH STORM
COVERAGE INCREASING AND CIGS/VIS GOING TO MVFR/IFR AFTER 15Z AND
BEYOND. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME GUSTY DURING THIS TIME.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF FOG PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT... BUT NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND NAM-MOS GUIDANCE ARE INDICATING HYR WILL HAVE THE
BEST REASONABLE CHANCE SO INCLUDED IN A TEMPO GROUP ACCORDINGLY
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 74 53 74 61 / 0 20 60 80
INL 75 54 77 57 / 0 40 50 60
BRD 80 58 78 63 / 0 40 60 80
HYR 77 53 78 61 / 0 10 50 70
ASX 73 51 78 59 / 0 0 30 70
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MCLOVIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
301 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 300 PMCDT WED AUG 5 2015
Main emphasis will be exiting wave this evening and then ridging
building increased heat Friday and into the weekend.
Eastern half of CWA currently showing some increase in showers and
isolated rumbles of thunder in Harrison County in north central
Missouri. This line is focusing on the deformation zone of the
shortwave trough current stretched out over Missouri and moving to
the east southeast. There were some breaks in the clouds to allow for
a little surface-based instability north of 36 Highway...up to around
1000 J/Kg but little in the way of shear to be of major concern. With
the loss of diurnal heating this evening...and the dynamics moving
out of the region we will see an end to showers and thunderstorms.
By late tonight skies should begin to clear and subsidence will move
into the area as a ridging builds in. Some patchy fog is possible but
will not mention as it may not be widespread enough in areas that
either don`t clear much or that are still relatively dry.
Thursday will be a very pleasant day with temperatures in the 80s and
lower humidities. By Friday...the ridge translates eastward...bring
return to heat and humidity. Heat indices will be middle to upper 90s
across the area Friday afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
A rather vigorous trough moving across southern Canada will dampen
the upper ridge positioned over the central US as we head into the
weekend. This system will force a weak surface cold front or two
through the region this weekend into early next week. A few
shortwave troughs will ride the ridge further to the south, sparking
convection along the Front Range and translating eastward along the
periphery of the ridge. Long-range models have a convective complex
making its way into the western CWA both Saturday morning and again
early Sunday. If these complexes make it into the CWA either
morning, we could end up with slightly cooler temperatures during
the morning hours; but should quickly warm up during the afternoon,
especially along and south of I-70 as thermal ridge extends across
the CWA. By early next week, the ridge begins to retrograde westward
positioning itself across the inter-mountain west, placing the CWA
into cooler and drier northwest flow aloft.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
Main concern for the short term is MVFR cig/vsby as moisture only
slowly moves east and south. Currently the terminals have cigs around
around 1000 ft except at KSTJ where the sky condition has cleared.
The RAP13 and HRRR models introduce some surface based instability so
we should see some return of clouds with a few VCSH after around 21Z
through around 03Z. This instability will be rather weak and given
sunset will drop even further so not going to carry CB at this time.
As drier air moves in late tonight...the clouds will scatter out but
some trapped ground moisture from recent rain will provide some MVFR
vsbys until around 14Z tomorrow morning when VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adolphson
LONG TERM...PMM
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1244 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 429 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
It`s another night watching storms percolate across the Plains
States with the potential for storms to linger on through much of the
day. Looking at he big picture across the Nation early this morning,
water vapor imagery shows a moderately amplified flow across the
contiguous U.S.A. with a ridge axis along the front range of the
Rocky`s. Within the larger pattern are noted a number of shortwave
troughs that will influence our weather over the next 48 hours. first
shortwave to note is seen spinning its way into eastern Kansas early
this morning thanks to the northwest flow. Second shortwave of note
is cresting the ridge axis along the Dakota border with Canada.
Today... The shortwave in eastern Kansas has already generated some
extensive convection across Kansas early this morning, and with the
help of a 25 knot southwest nocturnal jet --as sampled off the radar
wind profilers-- more storms are bubbling up across southeast Kansas
into southwest Missouri this morning. Farther east, across central
Missouri, isentropic lift ahead of the shortwave on the 305K surface
has developed showers. Expect this activity in both areas to fill in
through the morning hours as the shortwave continues to dig to the
southeast. This does not change the going forecast much, though the
ultimate expectations have been adjusted. Still looks like much of
the region will likely get a little bit of rain today, though the
highest rainfall totals are expected in areas south of the Missouri
River as the track of the shortwave takes the focus for precipitation
more into southern Missouri. Therefore have adjusted POPs and QPF to
reflect the more southern solution that current short range models
and radar trends advertise. Severe weather is not expected as our
area will be on the "cool side" of the shortwave, thus not nearly as
much instability as there could be with 0-6KM shear values generally
staying under 25 knots. Only portion of the forecast area where the
shear and instability might be able to conspire together would be
across our far southwest corner; east central Kansas into far west
central Missouri south of Kansas City this afternoon. Shear values in
the late morning and afternoon increase into the 30 to 35 knot range
as the shortwave moves though, but it is expected that instability
will be rather poor owing to the convection and cast off
precipitation from this morning. As a result, expect much of the
activity for storms to pass across southern Missouri though the
morning and afternoon hours with the potential for precipitation
fading in the evening hours.
With the passing of the eastern Kansas shortwave today the region
should be able to dry out a little tonight and through the day
Thursday as the ridge to our west flattens out some and expands into
Missouri. This will push temperatures back up, but still leave
conditions rather nice for early August. However, the chance for
storms will quickly return Thursday night as the Canadian border
shortwave slides into the Upper Great Lakes. Enhanced moisture
transport on the nocturnal jet may be able to get storms percolating
across the region again.
Otherwise, expect the chance for storms to persist through the
weekend as the flattened ridge remains across the Plains States,
resulting in a repeated potential for storms as various shortwave
troughs run the ridge crest just to our north. Currently, Sunday
looks to have the best chance for some kind of organized storms as it
looks like a stout trough moving through the Northern Plains will
force a cold front through Kansas and Missouri sometime Sunday.
Additional implication from this is that it might be a bit warm and
muggy Friday and through the weekend, but that temperatures will back
off a little going into Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
Main concern for the short term is MVFR cig/vsby as moisture only
slowly moves east and south. Currently the terminals have cigs around
around 1000 ft except at KSTJ where the sky condition has cleared.
The RAP13 and HRRR models introduce some surface based instability so
we should see some return of clouds with a few VCSH after around 21Z
through around 03Z. This instability will be rather weak and given
sunset will drop even further so not going to carry CB at this time.
As drier air moves in late tonight...the clouds will scatter out but
some trapped ground moisture from recent rain will provide some MVFR
vsbys until around 14Z tomorrow morning when VFR will prevail for the
remainder of the period.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Cutter
AVIATION...Adolphson
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
MAP ANALYSIS INDICATES UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS...AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE IS ALSO NOTED MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH BAROMETRIC PRESSURE IS NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND AS A RESULT...THE
BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK AND
AT TIMES VARIABLE.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE...CURRENTLY
CLEARING THE AREA...WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...LIKELY CLEARING THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT. QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE INDICATIONS OF ANOTHER UPPER TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARING
THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING.
AN OVERALL LACK IN OMEGA WOULD OTHERWISE KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH
TONIGHT...BUT SOMEWHAT ENHANCED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS COULD BE
ENOUGH TO PROMOTE WEAK SHOWER AND/OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA. THIS IS A
SOLUTION SUPPORTED BY QPF FIELDS FROM THE NAM AND OPERATIONAL
GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTEND THE EC. THIS IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM THE HRRR AND 4KM WRF-NMM. GIVEN ALL
THIS...OPTED TO GO AHEAD WITH ~20% POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA UNTIL 00Z. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN FORECAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DIABATIC HEATING
IS LOST.
GUIDANCE THEN SUGGESTS YET ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION COULD
BE REALIZED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY EVENING AS THE SECOND UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD
WITH 20-40% POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
EVENING.
DESPITE FAIRLY RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION...LAPSE RATES REALLY SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING TO WRITE HOME
ABOUT AND IN FACT...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS NO MORE THAN ~500J/KG OF
POTENTIAL ENERGY WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT PRODUCTION THROUGH
THIS EVENING. GIVEN THIS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE HWO. LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT MORE
RESPECTABLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GUIDANCE RESPONDS
BY PROVIDING POTENTIAL ENERGY VALUES MORE IN THE 1000-2000J/KG
RANGE. IN ADDITION...DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR OF ~40KTS IS ALSO
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND GIVEN ALL THIS...FELT
IT PRUDENT TO AT LEAST GO WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORM WORDING IN THE
HWO.
FINALLY...A CONTINUED WEAK BOUNDARY-LAYER WIND FIELD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH A NEAR-ZERO DEW POINT
DEPRESSIONS...COULD PROMOTE AT LEAST PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH PATCHY FOG
IN THE GRIDS 06-14Z THURSDAY.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS QUASI-ZONAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE
NOTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG-TERM FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC SHORT WAVE CLEARS THE AREA AND RIDGING STRENGTHENS
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MULTIPLE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC PERTURBATIONS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA AND AS A
RESULT...POPS...GENERALLY IN THE 20-40% RANGE...REMAIN INTACT
ACROSS VARIOUS PORTIONS OF THE CWA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG
AND/OR SEVERE CONVECTION CERTAINLY CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT REMAINS TOO EARLY
TO TRY AND PIN DOWN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF SUCH ACTIVITY.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AIR MASS SHOULD PROVIDE
SIMILAR TEMPERATURE READINGS FROM DAY TO DAY DURING THE LONG-TERM
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS TO START THE TAF PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY VFR
CONDITIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES STRATUS PERSISTING ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA AS OF THIS WRITING...WITH A CEILING BETWEEN 900 AND
1500FT AGL AT MANY LOCATIONS. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTION IN BR IS
ALSO BEING REPORTED. THAT SAID...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS
INDICATE THIS STRATUS IS DISSIPATING...A TREND WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THIS...WENT
AHEAD WITH A CEILING IN THE 900-1000FT AGL RANGE BETWEEN THE THREE
TAF SITES UNTIL 20Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEREAFTER. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG AND
STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. GIVEN THIS...WENT AHEAD WITH 5SM
VISIBILITY IN BR AND A CEILING AT 2000FT AGL 09-14Z THURSDAY. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND AT TIMES VARIABLE
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING MORE ESTABLISHED FROM THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BRYANT
LONG TERM...BRYANT
AVIATION...BRYANT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
353 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY...AS MORE MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...THUS FAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD
OFF BY SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SO FAR
IS NOT EVEN SHOWING MUCH OF A CU FIELD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THIS
CIRRUS...SOME OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE RATHER THICK...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ARE TRENDING DOWN AS DRY AIR IS MIXED INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER RECENT RAINFALL AND ONSHORE FLOW IS
KEEPING DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER...RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALREADY APPROACHING...AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING...105 DEGREES.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A BIG OBSTACLE TO OVERCOME. HAVE HELD
ONTO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS GIVEN TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS IN THE MID 70S.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT LAST MUCH
BEYOND SUNSET GIVEN THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CU AND EVEN DEBRIS CLOUD IS LIKELY TO BE GONE BY
MIDNIGHT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS CONVECTIVE CIRRUS BLOW OFF
EAST. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3SM IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO...MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE ARE PROSPECTS
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTITY ALONG
THE COASTAL INTERIOR THURSDAY...EJECTS TO SEA FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MIGRATION OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN
1.85 AND 2.10 INCHES POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...AVAILABLE FOR INGEST BY A LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS INTACT FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS
A MID-LVL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A COOLING TREND SHOULD BE
IN THE OFFERING EACH DAY THU/FRI...AS MOIST ONSHORE WINDS AND
CLOUDS TEAM...AND POTENTIALLY RAIN-COOLED AIR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY
AS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS TRIES TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A DEEP DRIER N-NW FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES DECREASING FROM UP NEAR 1.75
INCHES EARLY SATURDAY DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OR CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND BEGIN TO VEER AROUND BY LATE
SUNDAY...CAPTURING THE RICH MARINE AIR ONCE AGAIN AND BRINGING
DEWPOINT TEMPS THAT WERE DOWN IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND BACK UP TO
70S BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING THROUGH SATURDAY AND A DRY START
TO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP OUT POPS MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT ECMWF DOES
WANT TO BRING A LITTLE IMPULSE DOWN OVER THE AREA JUST IN TIME TO
PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA
BREEZE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE SOME CU OR A SHOWER OR TWO.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MON INTO TUES
WITH A DECENT W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
BY NEXT TUES NEXT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD PUSH FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND BRING BACK BETTER CHC OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES AND WED.
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPS TO
DROP BELOW 70 OVERNIGHT SAT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND BACK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN INCREASING SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK UP TO NORMAL OR ABOVE MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BOTH THE WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE
TO GET GOING...THE STEERING FLOW WILL MOVE THE STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...KEEPING THEM ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...WHERE THE ANGLE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVERLAP. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. SOME
LIGHT MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST BUT HAS HAD LIMITED
EFFECT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO
15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT.
GUST MAY OCCASIONALLY HIT 20 KT BUT OCCURRENCES WILL BE
INFREQUENT. SEAS RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH AN ISOLATED 5 FT POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ250 RESPECTIVELY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF THIS PERIOD WILL
BE MARKED BY AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS
INLAND...ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR OF NE SC AND
SE NC. WOBBLES AND FLUCTUATIONS WITH THIS FEATURES WILL BRING
VARYING WINDSPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS...BUT IN GENERAL A
CONSISTENT SW DIRECTION. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPOSED OF ESE
WAVES AROUND 2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS AND SHORTER PERIOD...LOCALLY
DERIVED WIND-WAVES OF SSW 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS. TSTMS OVER THE
WATERS WILL SEE A NOTABLE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS KICKED OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE 0-20 NM WATERS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
EXCEED MUCH MORE THAN 15 KTS SPIKING UP MAINLY INITIALLY BEHIND
FRONT AND WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MEANDERS
SLOWLY EASTWARD THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND FROM NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY TO A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ096-099-
105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
325 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD THEN STALL OUT OVER
NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
SHIFTING OFF THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES TO OUR SOUTH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM WEDNESDAY...
STILL APPEARS THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF CENTRAL NC WILL STAY DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH... AND
IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE TO OUR NORTH HAS MOVED LITTLE IN RECENT HOURS... STILL
STRETCHING ACROSS SRN VA INTO SE KY (ALTHOUGH PASSAGE OF NUMEROUS
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FURTHER WEST INTO THE MID MISS VALLEY HAS
PROPELLED THE SYNOPTIC FRONT SOUTHWARD THERE). SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL TO THE NW OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES REGION INTO WRN
ONTARIO WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT... AND THIS MORE DENSE AIR MAY
BE JUST ENOUGH TO NUDGE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NRN NC... HOWEVER
IT`S DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE HOW FAR SOUTH IT WILL GET. OUTSIDE OF
THE FAR NRN CWA... IT`S MORE LIKELY THAT WE`LL SEE A WIND SHIFT BUT
RELATIVELY LITTLE DROP IN THICKNESSES OVER MOST OF THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. WEAK MID LEVEL MCV/S NOW OVER WRN KY/TN WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD WRN VA/WRN NC TONIGHT... HOWEVER THESE MAY
UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION DUE TO THE STRENGTH/INFLUENCE OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM SE NEB INTO NRN ARK AS IT SHIFTS
TO THE ESE... EFFECTIVELY REINFORCING THE WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGING NOW
OVER OUR REGION AND REDUCING OR ELIMINATING ANY TANGIBLE DYNAMIC
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THE LATEST HI-RES NMM/ARW AND RECENT HRRR RUNS
SUPPORT EARLIER OUTPUT FROM THE NCAR ENSEMBLE AND NSSL WRF SHOWING
ISOLATED CELLS IN THE FAR SRN CWA INTO SC (AS IS OCCURRING) WITHIN
THE HIGHER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE NEAR A LOW LEVEL THERMAL / MOISTURE
GRADIENT (NOTED IN SFC-925-850 MB RAP ANALYSES) THROUGH EARLY
EVENING... AND OVER THE FAR NRN CWA NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE... WHERE
RECOVERING PW (EXPECTED TO INCH UP CLOSER TO 1.5" TONIGHT)... WEAK
LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE... AND STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMPT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION... LASTING UNTIL THE 05Z-07Z
TIME FRAME... AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP
CONFIGURATION THROUGH TONIGHT... WITH NO MORE THAN A LOW-END CHANCE
POP ANYWHERE GIVEN THE WEAK LIFT AND FOCUS. SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS DRIFTING OVERHEAD ESPECIALLY LATER
TONIGHT... YIELDING A GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKY. LOWS FROM AROUND
68 NORTH TO 74 SOUTH. -GIH
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 PM WEDNESDAY...
CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH IN A TREND TO UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
HEADING ESE... LIKELY PRECEDED BY SEVERAL OUTFLOWS AND WEAKER WAVES
THAT WILL HELP FURTHER MOISTEN THE COLUMN... STARTING WITH THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS AND EXPANDING GROUNDWARD HEADING INTO THU EVENING.
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THU
AFTERNOON REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH THU NIGHT... ALTHOUGH
VARIATIONS IN THE DETAILS PERSIST WITH THE NAM/SREF MEAN/ECMWF MUCH
FASTER (BY ROUGHLY 6 HRS) TO SPREAD PRECIP EASTWARD ACROSS NC THAN
THE GFS. GIVEN THE OVERALL STRENGTHENING OF UPPER DIVERGENCE OVER
THE REGION BY 18Z-00Z AND WIDESPREAD 30-40 M HEIGHT FALLS... TEND TO
FAVOR THE FASTER ARRIVAL OF HIGHER CONVECTION COVERAGE. WILL KEEP
THE TREND UP TOWARD CHANCE POPS ARRIVING IN THE NW FIRST DURING THE
EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON... SPREADING QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH RISING
POPS TOWARD LIKELY FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD... KEEPING HIGH POPS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
POTENT SURFACE LOW TRAVERSE THE AREA WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MASS
CONVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH. WHILE A FEW STRONGER STORMS
APPEAR POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ADDED DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW (BOTH MORE THAN WE TYPICALLY SEE IN
YOUR AVERAGE EARLY AUGUST TIME PERIOD)... AN EARLIER ONSET AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHOULD SUPPRESS CAPE
VALUES A BIT... KEEPING INSTABILITY MARGINAL AT MOST ESPECIALLY IN
THE NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGHS OF 87-95 (A TAD LOWER THAN GUIDANCE IN
THE NW GIVEN THE LIMITED HEATING AND CLOSER TO GUIDANCE IN THE SE).
LOWS 67-74. -GIH
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM WEDNESDAY...
OVERALL THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
FEATURE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHWEST CONUS AND TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST. TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...MODELS HAVE SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY AND
A SECONDARY `KICKER` WAVE LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE SLOWER TO EXIT THE REGION...WITH MUCH OF THE
DAY ON FRIDAY LOOKING TO HAVE DECENT PRECIP CHANCES. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS
AS THE LOW FINALLY LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST THE SURFACE FRONT IS
PUSHED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH/EAST.
FOR THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT
BEING PUSHED TO OUR SOUTH/EAST...AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY
THERE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
MOSTLY DRY FORECAST...WITH ONLY SOME ISOLATED DIURNAL TYPE
ACTIVITY...MOSTLY ACROSS THE SOUTH/EAST IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
BOUNDARY AND MAYBE IN THE WESTERN PIEDMONT BY SUNDAY AS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAY DRIFT INTO THAT AREA.
THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEREFORE
MOISTURE/PRECIP CHANCES WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO INCREASE. OUR NEXT
FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
BRINGING BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP TO THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
MODERATING BACK UP TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM WEDNESDAY...
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATING AT ALL CENTRAL NC
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY THU AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD INTO NC LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN STALL OUT THROUGH
THU. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL TERMINALS (INT/GSO/RDU) VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT (MAINLY 21Z THROUGH 06Z) BUT ANY MVFR VSBYS/CIGS
WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND LAST LESS THAN AN HOUR AT ANY GIVEN SPOT.
LOOKING BEYOND 18Z THU... THE CHANCE FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL
INCREASE LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO THU NIGHT... CONTINUING THROUGH
MUCH OF FRI... AS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TRACK ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION... BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FRI
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA... BUT SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER UNTIL SAT MORNING... WHEN A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH... AND PERSIST INTO
MONDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS MID MORNING SAT THROUGH MON. -GIH
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD
SHORT TERM...HARTFIELD
LONG TERM...KRD
AVIATION...HARTFIELD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
320 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY...AS MORE MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...THUS FAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD
OFF BY SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SO FAR
IS NOT EVEN SHOWING MUCH OF A CU FIELD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THIS
CIRRUS...SOME OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE RATHER THICK...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ARE TRENDING DOWN AS DRY AIR IS MIXED INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER RECENT RAINFALL AND ONSHORE FLOW IS
KEEPING DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER...RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALREADY APPROACHING...AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING...105 DEGREES.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A BIG OBSTACLE TO OVERCOME. HAVE HELD
ONTO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS GIVEN TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS IN THE MID 70S.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT LAST MUCH
BEYOND SUNSET GIVEN THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CU AND EVEN DEBRIS CLOUD IS LIKELY TO BE GONE BY
MIDNIGHT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS CONVECTIVE CIRRUS BLOW OFF
EAST. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3SM IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO...MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE ARE PROSPECTS
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTITY ALONG
THE COASTAL INTERIOR THURSDAY...EJECTS TO SEA FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MIGRATION OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN
1.85 AND 2.10 INCHES POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...AVAILABLE FOR INGEST BY A LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS INTACT FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS
A MID-LVL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A COOLING TREND SHOULD BE
IN THE OFFERING EACH DAY THU/FRI...AS MOIST ONSHORE WINDS AND
CLOUDS TEAM...AND POTENTIALLY RAIN-COOLED AIR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY
AS RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS TRIES TO NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A DEEP DRIER N-NW FLOW WILL LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEKEND WITH PCP WATER VALUES DECREASING FROM UP NEAR 1.75
INCHES EARLY SATURDAY DOWN TO LESS THAN AN INCH BY SUNDAY MORNING.
ANY LINGERING MOISTURE OR CLOUDS EARLY SATURDAY WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN AND BEGIN TO VEER AROUND BY LATE
SUNDAY...CAPTURING THE RICH MARINE AIR ONCE AGAIN AND BRINGING
DEWPOINT TEMPS THAT WERE DOWN IN THE 60S OVER THE WEEKEND BACK UP TO
70S BY SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
OVERALL EXPECT CLEARING AND DRYING THROUGH SATURDAY AND A DRY START
TO SUNDAY. WILL KEEP OUT POPS MOST OF THE WEEKEND...BUT ECMWF DOES
WANT TO BRING A LITTLE IMPULSE DOWN OVER THE AREA JUST IN TIME TO
PEAK HEATING ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ENHANCE CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA
BREEZE TO AT LEAST PRODUCE SOME CU OR A SHOWER OR TWO.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE ITS WAY
OFF THE COAST ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN MON INTO TUES
WITH A DECENT W-SW FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS.
BY NEXT TUES NEXT MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AND SHOULD PUSH FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS. THIS
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AND BRING BACK BETTER CHC OF SHWRS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS TUES AND WED.
TEMPS WILL ACTUALLY RUN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND POTENTIAL FOR LOW TEMPS TO
DROP BELOW 70 OVERNIGHT SAT. H5 HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND BACK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEN INCREASING SE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
TEMPS BACK UP TO NORMAL OR ABOVE MON THROUGH WED.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BOTH THE WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE
TO GET GOING...THE STEERING FLOW WILL MOVE THE STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...KEEPING THEM ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...WHERE THE ANGLE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVERLAP. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. SOME
LIGHT MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST BUT HAS HAD LIMITED
EFFECT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO
15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT.
GUST MAY OCCASIONALLY HIT 20 KT BUT OCCURRENCES WILL BE
INFREQUENT. SEAS RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH AN ISOLATED 5 FT POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ250 RESPECTIVELY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF THIS PERIOD WILL
BE MARKED BY AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS
INLAND...ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR OF NE SC AND
SE NC. WOBBLES AND FLUCTUATIONS WITH THIS FEATURES WILL BRING
VARYING WINDSPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS...BUT IN GENERAL A
CONSISTENT SW DIRECTION. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPOSED OF ESE
WAVES AROUND 2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS AND SHORTER PERIOD...LOCALLY
DERIVED WIND-WAVES OF SSW 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS. TSTMS OVER THE
WATERS WILL SEE A NOTABLE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS KICKED OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE 0-20 NM WATERS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...LIGHT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND DEPARTING FRONT...FOLLOWED BY WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING IN FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT WINDS TO
EXCEED MUCH MORE THAN 15 KTS SPIKING UP MAINLY INITIALLY BEHIND
FRONT AND WITH AFTN SEA BREEZE. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH MEANDERS
SLOWLY EASTWARD THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND FROM NORTH EARLY
SATURDAY TO A MORE ON SHORE EASTERLY DIRECTION BY LATE SUNDAY AND
SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...DL/III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
211 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THURSDAY...AS MORE MOISTURE IS BROUGHT INTO THE REGION. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A CHANCE
OF RAINFALL. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CROSSES THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...THUS FAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD
OFF BY SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SO FAR
IS NOT EVEN SHOWING MUCH OF A CU FIELD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THIS
CIRRUS...SOME OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE RATHER THICK...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ARE TRENDING DOWN AS DRY AIR IS MIXED INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST
THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER RECENT RAINFALL AND ONSHORE FLOW IS
KEEPING DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER...RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALREADY APPROACHING...AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING...105 DEGREES.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A BIG OBSTACLE TO OVERCOME. HAVE HELD
ONTO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS GIVEN TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS IN THE MID 70S.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT LAST MUCH
BEYOND SUNSET GIVEN THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CU AND EVEN DEBRIS CLOUD IS LIKELY TO BE GONE BY
MIDNIGHT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS CONVECTIVE CIRRUS BLOW OFF
EAST. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3SM IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO...MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...PRIMARY WEATHER HEADLINE ARE PROSPECTS
OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION LATE THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ENTITY ALONG
THE COASTAL INTERIOR THURSDAY...EJECTS TO SEA FRIDAY. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL ACCOMPANY THIS MIGRATION OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN
1.85 AND 2.10 INCHES POSITIONED ACROSS THE GULF STATES AND THE
COASTAL CAROLINAS...AVAILABLE FOR INGEST BY A LOW PRESSURE
FEATURE. A MARGINAL RISK REMAINS INTACT FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA AS
A MID-LVL TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. A COOLING TREND SHOULD BE
IN THE OFFERING EACH DAY THU/FRI...AS MOIST ONSHORE WINDS AND
CLOUDS TEAM...AND POTENTIALLY RAIN-COOLED AIR FRIDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... ANY COOL AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE
SHORT TERM FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SEEMS THAT MOISTURE
RETURN WANTS TO GET UNDERWAY ALREADY BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS WANT
TO BRING SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE PICTURE BUT GIVEN THE BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO OUR WEST THIS MAY BE
OVERDONE EARLY ON. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER ANOTHER
TROUGH AND FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP
UP.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BOTH THE WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE
TO GET GOING...THE STEERING FLOW WILL MOVE THE STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...KEEPING THEM ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...WHERE THE ANGLE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVERLAP. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. SOME
LIGHT MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER
THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND RESULTED
IN SLIGHTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST BUT HAS HAD LIMITED
EFFECT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO
15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT.
GUST MAY OCCASIONALLY HIT 20 KT BUT OCCURRENCES WILL BE
INFREQUENT. SEAS RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH AN ISOLATED 5 FT POSSIBLE IN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ250 RESPECTIVELY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 211 PM WEDNESDAY...NEARLY THE ENTIRETY OF THIS PERIOD WILL
BE MARKED BY AN ELONGATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AXIS
INLAND...ORIENTED WSW-ENE ACROSS THE COASTAL INTERIOR OF NE SC AND
SE NC. WOBBLES AND FLUCTUATIONS WITH THIS FEATURES WILL BRING
VARYING WINDSPEEDS BETWEEN 10-20 KNOTS...BUT IN GENERAL A
CONSISTENT SW DIRECTION. SEAS THIS PERIOD WILL BE COMPOSED OF ESE
WAVES AROUND 2 FT EVERY 9-10 SECONDS AND SHORTER PERIOD...LOCALLY
DERIVED WIND-WAVES OF SSW 1-3 FT EVERY 4-5 SECONDS. TSTMS OVER THE
WATERS WILL SEE A NOTABLE INCREASE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS KICKED OFFSHORE AND A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CROSSES THE 0-20 NM WATERS FRIDAY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD LEAVES BEHIND A VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
PINNING DOWN A WIND DIRECTION AT THIS TIME IS RATHER TRICKY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALMOST BE CERTAINLY BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS. SEAS
WILL THUSLY SETTLE TO NEAR MINIMAL VALUES FOR THE OCEAN AT 2 FT OR
LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MJC
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MJC
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/III
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
201 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY AND THURSDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED ON THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST LATE
THURSDAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...THUS FAR DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN HELD OFF
BY SUBSIDENCE AND MID LEVEL DRY AIR. VISIBLE SATELLITE SO FAR IS
NOT EVEN SHOWING MUCH OF A CU FIELD...ALTHOUGH THERE IS AN
ABUNDANCE OF CIRRUS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. DESPITE THIS
CIRRUS...SOME OF WHICH APPEARS TO BE RATHER THICK...TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO CLIMB WITH WIDESPREAD MID 90S INLAND. DEWPOINTS ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS ARE TRENDING DOWN AS DRY AIR IS MIXED INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. THIS SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES JUST BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. FARTHER
EAST THE COMBINATION OF HIGHER RECENT RAINFALL AND ONSHORE FLOW IS
KEEPING DEWPOINTS A LITTLE HIGHER...RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
ALREADY APPROACHING...AND IN SOME CASES EXCEEDING...105 DEGREES.
HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM GUIDANCE STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED
CONVECTION ALONG THE SEA BREEZE/PIEDMONT TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT THE
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS A BIG OBSTACLE TO OVERCOME. HAVE HELD
ONTO SLIGHT CHC POP FOR THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS GIVEN TEMPS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN SOME AREAS IN THE MID 70S.
ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WILL NOT LAST MUCH
BEYOND SUNSET GIVEN THE LACK OF MID LEVEL SUPPORT. ALTHOUGH
LINGERING CU AND EVEN DEBRIS CLOUD IS LIKELY TO BE GONE BY
MIDNIGHT CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE WEST AS
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADS CONVECTIVE CIRRUS BLOW OFF
EAST. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD BUT VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3SM IN MOST AREAS. LOWS WILL BE ABOVE
CLIMO...MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... A COLD FRONT AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
BEARING DOWN ON THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THE STAGE MAY BE SET FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE STRONGEST FORCING COMES OVERNIGHT AT
WHICH TIME THE INSTABILITY WILL HAVE WANED. MOST LOCALES SHOULD END
UP WITH SOME NEEDED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY IF SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS AS THE FORCING LOOKS QUITE STRONG. WITH THE
FRONT SLOWING DOWN AS IT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY MAY ALSO BE QUITE
UNSETTLED ESPECIALLY EARLIER IN THE DAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD
PUSH IN FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ANOTHER FAIRLY HEALTHY IMPULSE ALOFT
WILL KEEP SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... ANY COOL AND DRY ADVECTION BEHIND THE SHORT
TERM FRONT WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS IT SEEMS THAT MOISTURE RETURN
WANTS TO GET UNDERWAY ALREADY BY SUNDAY. SOME MODELS WANT TO BRING
SOME RAIN BACK INTO THE PICTURE BUT GIVEN THE BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE TO OUR WEST THIS MAY BE OVERDONE EARLY ON.
TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD HOWEVER ANOTHER TROUGH AND FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD RAMP UP.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...BOTH THE WRF AND THE HRRR DEPICT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE
TO GET GOING...THE STEERING FLOW WILL MOVE THE STORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST...KEEPING THEM ALONG THE COAST. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE
PENDER AND NEW HANOVER COUNTIES...WHERE THE ANGLE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES OVERLAP. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST. SOME
LIGHT MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
NOSE IN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. CHANCE FOR STORMS
MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM WEDNESDAY...GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND RESULTED IN
SLIGHTLY ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST BUT HAS HAD LIMITED
EFFECT ACROSS THE BULK OF THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTHWEST FLOW 10 TO
15 KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND OVERNIGHT.
GUST MAY OCCASIONALLY HIT 20 KT BUT OCCURRENCES WILL BE
INFREQUENT. SEAS RUN 2 TO 4 FT WITH AN ISOLATED 5 FT POSSIBLE
IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF AMZ252 AND AMZ250 RESPECTIVELY.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... WIND AND SEAS BUILDING AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY. WE MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS SUCH CONDITIONS JUST
OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST ZONES. THE BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE AREA ON
FRIDAY BUT ITS DECELERATING NATURE WILL NOT MAKE FOR THE CLEANEST
OF FROPAS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLACKEN AS A RESULT
AND SOME SLIGHT PREFRONTAL VEERING MAY OCCUR. THE SHARPER WIND
SHIFT THEN COMES FRIDAY NIGHT AND WAVES MAY STEEPEN EVEN AS
OVERALL DOMINANT WAVE HEIGHT CONTINUES TO DROP OFF.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM WEDNESDAY... THE FRONTAL PASSAGE DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD LEAVES BEHIND A VERY WEAK GRADIENT OVER THE WEEKEND.
PINNING DOWN A WIND DIRECTION AT THIS TIME IS RATHER TRICKY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL ALMOST BE CERTAINLY BE CAPPED AT 10 KTS. SEAS
WILL THUSLY SETTLE TO
NEAR MINIMAL VALUES FOR THE OCEAN AT 2 FT OR
LESS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ032-033-039-
053>056.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ099-105>110.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
313 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE SHORT TERM IS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON AND HEAVY RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM
FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85. 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN LINE WITH THE 18-19 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
A STRONG SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ONTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT...AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY.
EXPECTING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 ENTERING
THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT...AND FOCUSING CENTRAL THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. PWATS OF 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH TALL...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WEAK WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE SUPPORTING
SLOW STORM MOTIONS ALL POINT TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. AREAS
THAT WILL RESIDE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT THE LONGEST IS THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 00 UTC GEFS QPF MODEL CLIMATE IN
THE MAXIMUM PERCENTILES FOR THESE AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH
HAS BEEN NOTED AS A FLASH FLOOD SIGNAL IN PREVIOUS EVENTS ACROSS
THE CONUS. THUS...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH SOME OF
THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY DRY OVER THE RECENT
WEEKS...POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES MAY STILL LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING EVEN WITH DRY SOILS. FLASH FLOODING OF URBAN
AREAS...INCLUDING MANDAN...BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE WITH THESE SLOW MOVING...HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE EXITING THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY
NIGHT/06-12 FRIDAY AS LIKELY POPS DWINDLE AND THE PRECIPITATION COMES
TO AN END. UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY DRAGGING TWO SURFACE COLD FRONTS THROUGH...ONE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SATURDAY. FRIDAY LOOKS DRY
WITH THE INITIAL FRONT. HOWEVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND FRONT WILL BE THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 70KT-80KT JET STREAK SLIDING THROUGH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA ATOP OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SCOOTING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPS OVER OR
NEAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH
THE JET. ALTHOUGH WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ENSUES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT THE FRONT
STALLS ALONG/NEAR OR SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN BORDER SUNDAY FOR
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THAT CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION BEGIN ALONG INTERSTATE 94 AND INCREASE SOUTH
TOWARDS THE BORDER SUNDAY. THEREAFTER A CENTRAL CONUS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE DEVELOPS WITH A TROUGH SETTLING INTO THE WEST FOR DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVES TRYING TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MID WEEK OR SIGNS OF
THE RIDGE SHIFTING EAST A BIT FOR POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
146 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...EXPECTING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE WARM
FRONT NEAR US HIGHWAY 85. 18 UTC RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS 1500-2000
J/KG OF ML CAPE AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. THUS...A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...IN LINE WITH THE 16-17 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS AND SPC DAY
1 OUTLOOK.
THEREAFTER...ATTENTION TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT FOR THURSDAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO POPS FOR RADAR TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC...BLENDED TO
A TIME LAGGED ENSEMBLE OF THE 10-12 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHICH HAS
A GOOD HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION. EXPECT CURRENT STORMS TO
AT LEAST MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY PROPAGATE EAST WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. GIVEN THE CLEARING AHEAD OF THESE STORMS
INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...DESTABILIZATION INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON MAY LEAD TO STORM INTENSIFICATION AND A FEW STORMS
APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS WITH ML CAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40 KTS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
LEANED HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP FOR POPS. A
FEW OF THE STORMS IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
PULSED UP FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE STILL
RELATIVELY LIMITED THIS MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
TIMING AND PRECIP CHANCES/AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGES IN TODAY`S
SHORT TERM PERIOD.
CURRENTLY...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED OVER
SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHEASTERN MONTANA...THOUGH THE
INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS WANED WITH TIME EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EASTWARD SLOWLY
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.
THE LATEST ITERATIONS OF THE HRRR AND NAM SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL STILL BE IN WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BUT APPROACHING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY DAYBREAK TODAY. THE LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS THE
CONVECTION WOULD BEGIN INCREASING IN INTENSITY BEFORE NOON OVER
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...IN A WIDE LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
WESTERN MANITOBA TO MINOT TO BISMARCK BEFORE NOON. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND JAMES VALLEY AND EASTWARD WILL
BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES ARE MODEST THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...THUS A FEW STORMS COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE...BUT
INGREDIENTS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR A MENTION OF A SEVERE THREAT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS WESTWARD. WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON A
RATHER POTENT SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES EMERGING FROM A TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS MONTANA/WYOMING. THESE
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ENTER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING (MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING)...AND EXPAND EASTWARD
ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING
BEGIN IN THE WEST BY MID-EVENING...SPREADING EAST INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE BEST CAPE AND SHEAR WITH THIS POTENT WAVE APPEARS TO BE
FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...BUT THE MODEST
VALUES IN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO
BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA / WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA MOVING THEIR WAY
EAST DURING THE DAY. THESE ARE IN RESPONSE TO AN H5 WAVE AND
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS
SCENARIO...SO WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FROM NORTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE AND TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACES MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA IN A MARGINAL RISK...AND THAT APPEARS REASONABLE WITH
SBCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500...THOUGH SHEAR IS RATHER MARGINAL.
CONSIDERED GOING DRY FOR FRIDAY ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...BUT AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES
OPTED TO KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR SOUTH.
THE 05.00Z GFS AND ECMWF BRING A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN INTO THE
FAR SOUTH...WHILE THE NAM IS DRY.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
THE NEXT H5 WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...CLOSER
TO THE MORE ROBUST FORCING. AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER
TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
IMPACT WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
244 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY TOMORROW...A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215 PM...SPC MESO ANAL SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA WITH UPWARDS OF 2000J OF SBCAPE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THAT AREA INTO SCT RANGE AS RADAR SHOWS A COUPLE
CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND HRRR PICKS UP ON THAT TO PRODUCE SCT
CELLS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FARTHER N IN WESTERN NC...INSTABILITY
LESS BUT WEAK PVA AIDING IN SOME SCT CELLS DEVELOPING THERE.
HENCE...WILL HAVE SCT POPS BLANKETING THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH DCAPES OVER THE PIEDMONT EXCEEDING 1000J...A FEW
SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
SOME CELLS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN WESTERN NC AS THE
WORK VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH. CAMS DO SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION WANES...PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE
CLIMO.
ON THURSDAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. WITH DPVA IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MODELS RESPOND WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
CLOSER TO CLIMO ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...A VIGOROUS 500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHARPEN UP JUST WEST OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AND THEN
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT. THE BEST LOBE OF DEEP LAYER Q
VECTOR CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE WILL
AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY THURSDAY EVENING. DESPITE DEEPENING OF THE
ASSOCIATED 850 MB LOW CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE OVER THE
LOWER OH VALLEY LATE THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE INCREASE IN SRLY/SWLY
FLOW MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY MOVING WAVE. THE
RAPID FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD LARGELY PRECLUDE ANY
SIGNIFICANT HYDRO ISSUES THU NIGHT. ANY BRIEF UPTICK IN LOW LEVEL
FLOW COULD COMBINE WITH LINGERING LATE DAY INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
DEEP MID AND UPPER DRYING WILL ARRIVE ON NW FLOW FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE POSSIBLY
YIELDING A MORNING STRATUS LAYER EACH DAY. UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY
BUILD THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A RETURN TO MAINLY DIURNAL RIDGE TOP
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION. TEMPS WILL RETURN TO NEAR CLIMO THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROFFING LIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO OUR NE
AND THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD AND INTO THE FCST
AREA. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WONT ADVANCE
VERY FAR EAST BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY EARLY TUES THE TROF AXIS WILL LIKELY
BE JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH FURTHER DEEPENING LIKELY THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
BACK OVER THE FCST AREA. BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES...THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW OVER THE FCST AREA OR JUST NORTH OF IT...YET THE
LOCATION AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCLEAR. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT BY
EARLY WED...THE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING WELL OFFSHORE WITH STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE FCST AREA TO END THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...THINGS START OUT MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SCT CONVECTION. AS THE PROFILES MOISTEN ON MON AND THE LOW LVL SLY
FLOW INCREASES...POPS INCREASE TO HIGH END CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
FOR BOTH MON AND TUES WITH DRYING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...IF
NOT JUST ABOVE...FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING TOWARDS DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE MAIN QUESTION IS
WHETHER ANY CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING. WITH SCT CELLS DEVLOPING TO THE WEST...HAVE ELECTED TO
HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA BEGINNING AT 22Z WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS. AFTER
THE CONVECTION WANES THIS EVENING...ONLY SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT FOR EARLIER CHC OF
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ABOUT 00Z AND
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO GO TEMPO ANYWHERE.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH FOG RELEGATED TO LITTLE TN VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLIANS INTO GA. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
232 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ACROSS OUR REGION EARLY TOMORROW...A LOW WILL DEVELOP AND GRADUALLY
MOVE OFFSHORE BY LATE FRIDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD BACK OVER
THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 215 PM...SPC MESO ANAL SHOWS MODERATE INSTABILITRY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN UPSTATE INTO NE GA WITH UPWARDS OF 2000J OF SBCAPE. HAVE
INCREASED POPS IN THAT AREA INTO SCT RANGE AS RADAR SHOWS A
COUPLE CELLS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND HRRR PICKS UP ON THAT TO
PRODCUE SCT CELLS THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. FARTHER N IN WESTERN
NC...INSTABILITY LESS BUT WEAK PVA AIDING IN SOME SCT CELLS
DEVELOPING THERE. HENCE...WILL HAVE SCT POPS BLANKETING THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WITH DCAPES OVER THE PIEDMONT EXCEEDING
1000J...A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
SOME CELLS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING IN WESTERN NC AS THE
WORK VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH. CAMS DO SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY WILL WANE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING OVERNIGHT. ONCE CONVECTION WANES...PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH LOWS A CATEGORY OR SO ABOVE
CLIMO.
ON THURSDAY...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST. WITH DPVA IMPROVING THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MODELS RESPOND WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MOST AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS
CLOSER TO CLIMO ON THURSDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 230 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON THURSDAY MORNING A LOW AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE WEST AND A LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH WILL BE
OVER THE EAST. MEANWHILE...A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE WILL CROSSING
THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER PATTERN STARTS TO AMPLIFY ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. ON FRIDAY ANOTHER...WEAKER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE
MOUNTAINS...WHILE THE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY. THIS
SECOND SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO OUR AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE OVER OUR AREA ON
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SLIDES SOUTH OF OUR AREA ON THURSDAY
EVENING...BUT MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND IT SUBSTANTIALLY DECREASE
UNTIL LATE FRIDAY. MOISTURE EVEN INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
SECOND SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. MOISTURE AN INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION...MAINLY DURING DAYTIME HEATING. INITIALLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND NOT VERY FAVORABLE FOR
UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT AS THE SECOND SHORTWAVE ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...VEERING SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT INTO THE BLUE RIDGE. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SUNDAY WITH UPPER TROFFING LIFTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST TO OUR NE
AND THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY SPREADING EASTWARD AND INTO THE FCST
AREA. THE LONG RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WONT ADVANCE
VERY FAR EAST BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER TROF DIGS DOWN OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BY EARLY TUES THE TROF AXIS WILL LIKELY
BE JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH FURTHER DEEPENING LIKELY THRU THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...A COASTAL LOW WILL BE MOVING FARTHER OFF
THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD BY EARLY SUN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING
BACK OVER THE FCST AREA. BY LATE MON/EARLY TUES...THE MODELS TRY TO DEVELOP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW OVER THE FCST AREA OR JUST NORTH OF IT...YET THE
LOCATION AND TIMING ARE STILL UNCLEAR. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT BY
EARLY WED...THE LOW SHOULD BE MOVING WELL OFFSHORE WITH STRONGER SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK OVER THE FCST AREA TO END THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE
SENSIBLE FCST...THINGS START OUT MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SCT CONVECTION. AS THE PROFILES MOISTEN ON MON AND THE LOW LVL SLY
FLOW INCREASES...POPS INCREASE TO HIGH END CHANCE OVER MOST OF THE CWFA
FOR BOTH MON AND TUES WITH DRYING ON WED AS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGY...IF
NOT JUST ABOVE...FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME COOLING TOWARDS DAY 7.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AT KCLT...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHETHER ANY CONVECTION
WILL AFFECT THE AIRFIELD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WITH
SCT CELLS DEVLOPING TO THE WEST...HAVE ELECTED TO HAVE A TEMPO FOR
TSRA BEGINNING AT 22Z WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS. AFTER THE CONVECTION
WANES THIS EVENING...ONLY SCT-BKN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EXPECTED.
ELSEWHERE...SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO KCLT...EXCEPT FOR EARLIER CHC OF
CONVECTION. HAVE CARRIED A VCTS ALL TAF SITES UNTIL ABOUT 00Z AND
WILL MONITOR CLOSELY TO SEE IF WE NEED TO GO TEMPO ANYWHERE.
OTHERWISE...VFR WITH FOG RELEGATED TO LITTLE TN VALLEY.
OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE
STALLED FRONT LYING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLIANS INTO GA. SOME
DRYING IS EXPECTED LATE FRI INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW AND FRONT
MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 91%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 97%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...LG
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...LG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
221 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION...AS UPPER
LOW CIRCULATES OVER SOUTHWEST CANADA. WEAK SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING HAVE BEEN DISSIPATING AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD...WITH JUST SOME
CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE CWA. WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS
ARE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A LINE OF
FRONTOGENESIS/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND EXPAND
EASTWARD. MODELS ARE HINTING AT AN INITIAL WAVE WITH BEST FORCING
JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA BRINGING A BAND OF STORMS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWESTERN SD...WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS. HRRR THIS
MORNING WAS PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH A SQUALL LINE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HILLS AND NORTHWEST SD EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT LATER RUNS
ARE SHOWING A MORE SCATTERED FORM. MLCAPE IS UNIMPRESSIVE AROUND
750 J/KG ON THE PLAINS WITH 1500 J/KG OVER THE HILLS...BUT SHEAR
IS 35-45 KTS SO WOULD NOT RULE OUT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORM. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE STRONG WINDS.
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SD THURSDAY. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEHIND THE LOW WILL CREATE SOME BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE SD
PLAINS AND ALSO BRING IN SOME COOLER AIR TO NORTHWESTERN SD.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN/CENTRAL SD
DURING THE DAY UNTIL THE WAVE FINALLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD OUT OF
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 80S...70S IN THE BLACK HILLS.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ON TRACK FOR SAT-SUN. HOWEVER...STRONG
INDICATIONS ARE IN PLACE FOR SIG LONG WAVE RIDGING OVER CENTRAL NOAM
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A MUCH WARMER PERIOD FOR THE
REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHEST POPS IN THE PERIOD ARE IN
THE SAT-SUN PERIOD AS THE CURRENT UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF CA
EJECTS NE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE REGION. PLENTY OF LL
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND
MONSOON MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SCT SHRA/TS IN THIS PERIOD ESP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES. LINGERING CHANCES FOR PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
TS OVER THE BLACK HILLS TUES WHEN BETTER MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A LEE TROUGH. SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL BE IN PLACE
SAT/SUN WITH INCREASING FLOW SUPPORTING DECENT BULK SHEAR /0-6KM/
NUMBERS ABOVE 35 KNOTS...WITH 1-2 KJ/KG OF CAPE OVER THE SE FA.
HOWEVER...STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY PER SYSTEM TRACK/SPEED TO ASCERTAIN
A BETTER GRASP ON SEVERE PROBS.
AFTER A SEASONAL DAY FRIDAY...COOLER TEMPS ARE ON TRACK FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODEST COOL DOWN EXPECTED SUNDAY.. MUCH WARMER
WEATHER ON TRACK FOR TUE AND BEYOND WITH 90S EXPECTED. A FEW 100/S A
CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESP ON THE SD PLAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS AND NERN WY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG...WITH SCT TSRA OVERNIGHT...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY WITH
THE TSRA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...JC
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1131 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE IS CROSSING UTAH...HELPING TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WYOMING...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWRD WITH
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MRNG. RELATIVELY LIGHT SRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW ATTM WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THESE
WAVES WILL PUSH INTO WY THIS AFTN AND CROSS THE CWA TNGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MRNG...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTN
INTO TONIGHT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. HRRR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NE WY/BLKHLS AREAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE W/ HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY MRNG WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE W/NW. STORMS MAY BE
LINGERING ACROSS CNTRL SD...BUT OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY THUR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...AND 70S ACROSS THE BLKHLS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THU NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROPS
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS
SUBDUED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONGEST SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... SUPPORTING
THE HIGHEST POPS SAT/SUN. SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS AND NERN WY IN THE
AFTN/EVNG...WITH SCT TSRA OVERNIGHT...SPREADING WEST TO EAST. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY WITH
THE TSRA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NWS RAPID CITY SD
1016 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE IS CROSSING UTAH...HELPING TO SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER WYOMING...AND EXPECT PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...WARM FRONT IS DRAPED NORTH TO
SOUTH ACROSS THE CWA...WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND TEMPS IN
THE 70S TO LOWER 80S. INCREASED POPS OVER THE NORTHERN HILLS FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTION THERE...BUT REST OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
UPPER WAVE NOW CROSSING THE DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE EWRD WITH
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING ACROSS THE CWA THIS MRNG. RELATIVELY LIGHT SRLY
FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH TEMPS REACHING THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ONSHORE THE PAC NW ATTM WITH A
SERIES OF UPPER WAVES ROUNDING THE BASE INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. THESE
WAVES WILL PUSH INTO WY THIS AFTN AND CROSS THE CWA TNGHT. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MRNG...BUT POPS WILL INCREASE IN THE AFTN
INTO TONIGHT AS THE WAVE APPROACHES. HRRR SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING
ACROSS NE WY/BLKHLS AREAS BY EARLY TO MID AFTN. STORMS ARE THEN
EXPECTED TO CROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE W/ HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.
UPPER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF THE CWA THURSDAY MRNG WITH DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE W/NW. STORMS MAY BE
LINGERING ACROSS CNTRL SD...BUT OTHERWISE MOST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY THUR. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S ON THE
PLAINS...AND 70S ACROSS THE BLKHLS. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE
DAY...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THU NIGHT. TEMPS WILL DROPS
INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS LARGE SCALE RIDGING REMAINS
SUBDUED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT PERIODIC CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A SERIES OF TROUGHS PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION. STRONGEST SYSTEM EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND... SUPPORTING
THE HIGHEST POPS SAT/SUN. SEASONAL TEMPS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH WARMER/DRIER CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT WED AUG 5 2015
SOME IFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY CREEP INTO SCNTRL SD EARLY THIS
MORNING FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP ACROSS NEB AND MOVES NWD.
OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSRA ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLKHLS AND NERN WY IN
THE AFTN/EVNG...WITH SCT TSRA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY WITH THE
TSRA.
&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POJORLIE
SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1219 PM CDT WED AUG 5 2015
.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
DOMINATE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT THE I-35 CORRIDOR TAFS BETWEEN 09Z-11Z OVERNIGHT AND
BECOMING SCATTERED/VFR BY 14Z-15Z. GENERAL SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
CONTINUE AT 5 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 18-20KTS MAINLY LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 704 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
AVIATION.../12Z TAFS/
PATCHY MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE I-35 TAF SITES
THROUGH 14Z AS THEY BOUNCE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN COVERAGE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE HRRR SUGGESTS THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL LIFT TO VFR WITHIN THE HOUR...SO WILL AMEND TAFS AS NECESSARY
IF THIS OCCURS. SOUTHERLY 10-15 KT WINDS WITH BRIEF GUSTS TO 20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF PATCHY MVFR CIGS SHOULD
DEVELOP AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AT ONE OR TWO OF THE I-35 SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 AM CDT WED AUG 5 2015/
SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN ITS EASTWARD TREK BACK TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL CONUS TODAY RESULTING IN BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
REGION. MORNING LOW CLOUDS DUE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE
ADVECTION THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF AS MIXING WILL
EFFICIENTLY TAKE PLACE AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM. EXPECTING
HIGHS TO AVERAGE ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY
ACROSS THE CWA. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 102 IN THE HILL
COUNTRY TO 111 IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND GET COMFY OVER
TEXAS FOR THE WEEKEND. 1000-500MB THICKNESSES LOOK TO INCREASE
ABOUT 7-8 DAM FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY RESULTING IN SATURDAY
HIGHS IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS EVERYWHERE BUT IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE PLATEAU. THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SOME HINTS AT A FRONTAL SYSTEM ARE SEEN IN THE GFS/ECMWF.
HOWEVER...RATHER THAN COOL THE AREA...THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY SERVE
TO ONLY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL COMPRESSIONAL WARMING AND RAISE MAX
TEMPS TO AT OR JUST ABOVE RECORD HIGHS FOR NEXT WEDNESDAY. BASED
OFF THE CURRENT FORECAST...HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
FOR AREAS IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN ZONES
AND COASTAL PLAINS POSSIBLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS FRIDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 101 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 99 74 99 74 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 101 75 100 75 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 100 75 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 102 77 102 78 103 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 100 77 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 99 74 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 100 76 99 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 100 77 99 77 101 / - 0 0 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 100 77 99 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 100 77 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
MESOSCALE/AVIATION...07
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...OAKS
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY