Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/04/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

955 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRYING TREND WILL LEAD TO LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
TODAY AND MONDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO MAINLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER TUESDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE
AROUND THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...IR/VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AT THIS TIME...WHILE SUNNY SKIES
WERE THE RULE WEST OF TUCSON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED THE
DEEPER MOISTURE TO BE ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS. MEANWHILE...A
A DISTINCTLY DRIER MID/UPPER LEVEL REGIME WAS DEPICTED VIA WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY FROM TUCSON WWD INTO WRN PIMA COUNTY. 02/12Z KTWC
SOUNDING ALSO DEPICTED A MARKEDLY DRIER REGIME ABOVE 400 MB VERSUS
24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THE PROFILE WAS STILL QUITE MOIST...WITH
TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.52 INCHES. 02/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
DEPICTED LIGHT TO MODERATE GENERALLY WLY FLOW ACROSS MUCH OF THIS
FORECAST AREA...AS A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN OF
WEST TEXAS SWWD TO WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SPUR.

02/12Z NAM/GFS...02/00Z ECMWF AND VARIOUS RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS AGREE
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL FAVOR GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE
COUNTIES EAST OF TUCSON THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE
APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM THE VICINITY OF NOGALES
NWD ACROSS ERN PIMA COUNTY...INCLUDING TUCSON...AND FURTHER NWD INTO
SOUTHEASTERN PINAL COUNTY. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR
ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND MUCH OF THE TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY. IF THE VARIOUS RUC HRRR SOLUTIONS BECOME
REALITY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS FAR ERN SECTIONS WITH DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE CLOSE TO TEMPS ACHIEVED
SAT...OR WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER DEPENDING UPON LOCATION. A
WARMING TREND WILL THEN OCCUR MON-TUE AS THE DRYING TREND CONTINUES
ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE ARE NO UPDATES NECESSARY FOR THE INHERITED OFFICIAL FORECAST.
PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/18Z.
EXPECT SCATTERED -TSRA/-SHRA EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THERE IS A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF -TSRA/-SHRA AT KTUS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THIS CHANCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAF. THE BULK OF ANY -TSRA/-SHRA WILL BE EAST OF THE NEW
MEXICO BORDER BY AROUND 03/06Z. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MAINLY -SHRA WILL
BE POSSIBLE EAST OF KTUS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...WEST OF KTUS EXPECT CLEAR SKIES OR A FEW CLOUDS ABOVE
10K FT AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD. EAST AND SOUTH OF KTUS...A FEW TO
BROKEN CLOUDS MAINLY AT 7-11K FT AGL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
THEN CLOUD DECKS MOSTLY ABOVE 10K FT AGL LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SURFACE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT TODAY WILL BEGIN TO USHER
DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF TUCSON AND NEAR HIGH
TERRAIN...BEFORE BEING RELEGATED TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA AND MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY. THE LOWEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL OCCUR ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE DRY PUSH WILL CONTINUE IN EARNEST ON
MONDAY...AIDED BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL
RELEGATE THUNDERSTORMS TO NEAR THE AZ/NM BORDER AND THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY MAY BE THE MOST INACTIVE DAY IN THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTER PIVOTS ALMOST DIRECTLY
OVERHEAD.

MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO INCREASE STARTING WEDNESDAY AND REVOLVE
AROUND THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN WE SEE AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
BEGINS TO MIGRATE EAST INTO NM...THE GFS BEING THE QUICKEST OF THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF/CMC NWP SUITE. AT THIS TIME...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH OF TUCSON...ALTHOUGH BASED ON THE TIMING OF
THE EASTWARD-MOVING HIGH CENTER...THIS MAY STILL BE OVERDONE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
INCREASE AS WELL AS SHIFT FROM WEST-TO-EAST ACROSS THE CWA AS THE
MID-LEVEL HIGH TEMPORARILY MOVES TO A MORE TYPICAL AUGUST POSITION
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. ALAS...THIS INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE SHORT-LIVED AS ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS IS POISED TO
SWING INTO THE THE GREAT BASIN.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...CARLAW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

853 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING WILL OCCUR TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A STARK CONTRAST COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN
THOUGH YESTERDAY ENDED BEING SOMEWHAT QUIET OVER MOST OF THE
AREA...TODAY WILL BE EVEN MORE QUIET. LITTLE MOISTURE IS LEFT FROM
PHOENIX WESTWARD AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EVEN DRIER
AIR WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTH. SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPORADIC AFTERNOON CU ACROSS THE DESERTS...BUT
DRIER AIR MIXING DOWN WILL QUICKLY DROP SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM THE
CURRENT MID 50S TO LOWER 60S DOWN CLOSER TO 50 DEGREES BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS EAST OF PHOENIX...BUT AM
NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH ACTIVITY TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN TOP OUT
NEAR 110 DEGREES OR SLIGHTLY WARMER OVER THE DESERTS OF SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...WHILE HIGHS SHOULD PEAK OUT IN A
104-108 RANGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS. THE CURRENT
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE NEEDED.

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES.
FAIRLY WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB
LAYER OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

PER LATEST GFS AND ECMWF...AMONG THEIR ENSEMBLE COUNTERPARTS ARE SLOW
TO MOVE A CUT OFF LOW FORMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO THE EAST OVER
THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
FLOAT TO THE WEST AND FLATTEN OUT...WITH A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING FLOW SETTLING IN THROUGH MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN
OPTIMUM TIME FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY RISE EVEN IF SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGE...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NONE OF THE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TEMPERATURES TO THE 110 DEGREE MARK FOR PHOENIX BUT THERE ARE
A FEW DAYS WITH 110 OR GREATER OUT ALONG THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER...GENERALLY A WARMER LOCALE. ALL THIS BEING SAID...STORM
CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 5-6 DAYS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY LESS THAN THE
PREVIOUS DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER DESERTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE KEPT
FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS NORTH AND EAST OF PHOENIX DUE TO THE NATURE OF
MOUNTAIN ACTIVITY. THE NEXT FLOW REVERSAL APPEARS TO SHAPE UP BY LATE
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS MOISTURE MAKES A RETURN APPEARANCE AND WIND
FLOW RETURNS TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL TRANSITION INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST...SHUNTING THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS TODAY INTO
THE MOUNTAINS NORTH-EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE PHX AREA. SKY COVERAGE TO
RANGE FROM SKC TO SCT WITH ANY DAYTIME CU GNLY AOA 10KFT. WINDS WILL
FOLLOW TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERNS...WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED WESTERLY
AFTN AND EVENING FLOW FOR KIPL AND THE PHX AREA TERMINALS.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA
COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT
NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO THIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH DAILY STORM CHANCES PERSISTING FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND DAYTIME HUMIDITIES STILL RANGING FROM 10 TO 20 PERCENT IN THE
LOWER DESERTS AND 30 TO 35 PERCENT FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...KUHLMAN
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

244 AM MST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE DRYING OCCURS STARTING TODAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF
PHOENIX. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
PRETTY QUIET RADAR EARLY THIS MORNING SAVE FOR A SWATH OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. FAIRLY
WEEK SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW THROUGH A MIXED 850-300MB LAYER
OF 10-15 KTS HAS ALLOWED FOR SUFFICIENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO
ACCUMULATE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING.
MOST OF THE FOCUS OF MONSOON ACTIVITY WAS ACROSS EASTERN PIMA...GILA
AND GRAHAM COUNTIES SATURDAY EVENING. PER CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY A
TONGUE OF DRY AIR IS INFILTRATING SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA MOVING THE
DRY AIRMASS IN FROM THE WEST AND KICKING THE MOISTURE OUT THE DOOR TO
THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THE CULPRIT PUSHING IN
FROM THE WEST BRINGING SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ALONG
WITH DRIER AIR /06Z SUNDAY MIXING RATIOS NEARLY 10 G/KG LESS THAN 24
HOURS AGO/. A BROAD REGION OF DIFFLUENCE STILL RESIDES ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA THROUGH EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM...AND
AS EXPECTED THIS WOULD BE THE REGION OF FAVORABLE STORM ACTIVITY
TODAY DURING THIS TRANSITION PERIOD. CURRENT MESOSCALE HIGH RES MODEL
THAT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT APPEARS TO BE THE HRRR FOR TODAY`S
ACTIVITY.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE CLR-FEW RANGE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES BY SUN MORNING...WITH
BASES REMAINING MAINLY AOA 10K FEET...WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
REMAINING WELL OFF TO THE EAST OF THE GREATER PHX AREA ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TO MAINLY FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...DRIER AND STABLE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
PRODUCE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH LOWER
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY GENERALLY IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT
RANGE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH. FAIR RECOVERY AT NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...DEWEY
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

1030 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING STORM CHANCES THE REST OF TODAY WILL MAINLY AFFECT AREAS
ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW STORMS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. CONSIDERABLE
DRYING OCCURS STARTING SUNDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
STORM CHANCES CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF PHOENIX.
TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION... A MUCH QUIETER AFTERNOON/EVENING TODAY THAN WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL AZ. DRY AIR THAT IS BEING PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROF THAT IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST HAS NOW MOVED INTO SE CA AND
THE WESTERN 1/2 OF ARIZONA. THIS DRY AIR HAS PRETTY MUCH SHUT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOWN AND PUSHED SFC DEWPOINTS DOWN INTO THE
50S ACROSS THE WESTERN 3/4 OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON.

AHEAD OF THIS DRY SURGE...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHER GILA COUNTY...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE
STILL WELL UP IN THE 60S UNDER THE MAIN MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME AND
CONTINUED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. THIS TS ACTIVITY IS NOW BEGINNING TO
SLOWLY DIMINISH AND SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO SHIFT OFF SLOWLY TO THE EAST...WITH THE
LATEST HRRR HIGH-RES MODEL RUN INDICATING THAT ANY REMAINING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO END BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOMORROW STILL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL BE THE 1ST IN A SERIES OF VERY QUIET DAYS AS DRY AIR
MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS ALL OF AZ. AS FAR AS THE SHORT-TERM GRIDDED AND
ZONE FORECASTS ARE CONCERNED...HAVE LOWERED POPS FOR THE REST OF
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT INTO THE SINGLE-DIGIT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWER DESERTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL AZ AND HAVE MADE SOME MINOR EDITS TO
THE SHORT-TERM TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS.

.DISCUSSION...
SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON WE HAVE LITTLE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
AS THE ATMOSPHERE JUST HAS NOT RECOVERED. SKIES HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
CLEAR SO SUNSHINE HAS NOT BEEN AN ISSUE...BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT COOL FOR THIS TIME OF DAY AND GENERALLY 5-8
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. MESOSCALE ANALYSIS DOES SHOW AMPLE
MIXED LAYER CAPE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ALONG
WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE OVER MUCH OF ARIZONA. STILL EXPECTING MORE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO MOSTLY HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE LOWER DESERTS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY
DUE TO THE POOR CONVECTIVE START TO THE AFTERNOON...BUT WE SHOULD
STILL GET A FEW STORMS IN THE DESERTS BY THE END OF THE DAY. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG DOWNDRAFT WINDS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS...BUT WITH MORE MOIST AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OUTFLOW
INTERACTIONS SHOULD BE LESS ACTIVE THAN YESTERDAY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR QUICKLY MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE BAJA AREA INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND MODELS SHOW THIS DRY AIR
WORKING ACROSS ARIZONA STARTING TONIGHT AND OVERTAKING ALL OF THE
STATE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. LINGERING LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME HIGHER TERRAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LITTLE TO NO
CHANCE OF ANY ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER DESERTS. THIS DRY AIR WILL
BASICALLY END OUR STORM CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS EARLY THIS
WEEK...WHILE TEMPERATURES START TO WARM UP. HIGHS ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA DESERTS WILL LIKELY BREAK
110 DEGREES SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERT
TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK ON MONDAY OR TUESDAY...BUT FALL SHORT OF
HITTING 110 DEGREES.

THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SOMETIME
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REDIRECTING OUR FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
THIS WILL BRING A RETURN TO AT LEAST SOME LIMITED MONSOONAL MOISTURE
AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN
HALF OF ARIZONA.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...PERCHA/KUHLMAN
AVIATION...PERCHA
FIRE WEATHER...VASQUEZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

901 PM MST SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A GRADUAL DAILY REDUCTION IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
THEN OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH WILL RETURN DURING
THE LATTER PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DIMINISH LATE
THIS EVENING AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION
SUGGESTED THAT THE REMAINING SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT WITH
SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKED ON TRACK...SO JUST
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GRIDDED POP FIELD THIS EVENING. PLEASE
REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/06Z.
EXPECT CLEARING SKIES LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY E OF KTUS/KOLS AND ESP NEAR TERRAIN. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL USHER DRIER AIR
INTO THE REGION...WHICH WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ON MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A MORE FAVORABLE
LOCATION FOR DAILY CHANCES OF MONSOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING... ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

.PREV DISCUSSION...01/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/CMC WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH DEPICTING A DRYING TREND TO COMMENCE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUE...AT LEAST. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS PROGGED TO BE CENTERED OVER
FAR WEST TEXAS SUN MORNING...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NWRN ARIZONA. 700-300 MB SWLY FLOW SUN WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WLY MON AND CONTINUE WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WLY FLOW TUE
AS THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES POSITIONED JUST SOUTH OF THIS FORECAST
AREA OVER NRN SONORA.

THIS WIND REGIME WILL TRANSLATE INTO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/
TSTMS FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD SUN AND MON. BY TUE...THERE IS ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. A SIMILAR PRECIP REGIME MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR
WED...AT LEAST BASED ON THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC SOLUTIONS. FOR NOW...
OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS MUCH
OF SE ARIZONA WED.

THEREAFTER...THE GFS/ECMWF WERE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THIS FORECAST AREA STARTING THUR AND
CONTINUING INTO NEXT SAT. THESE SOLUTIONS SEEM PLAUSIBLE AS THE MID-
LEVEL STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SLY IN RESPONSE TO THE
UPPER HIGH BECOMING POSITIONED AGAIN OVER WEST TEXAS...AND AN UPPER
TROUGH ADJACENT THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THUS...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL RETURN THUR-SAT MAINLY FROM TUCSON EWD/SWD TO THE NEW MEXICO/
INTERNATIONAL BORDERS.

EXPECT ABOUT A DEGREE-OR-TWO OF DAILY WARMING SUN-TUE FOLLOWED BY A
VERY GRADUAL REDUCTION IN DAYTIME TEMPS DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

812 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
EXCEPT FOR RIGHT ALONG THE CHURCHILL/LANDER COUNTY LINE ALONG
HIGHWAY 50...CONVECTION HAS ENDED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS
A LITTLE EARLIER THAN FORECAST. LATEST NAM DOES NOT SUPPORT MUCH
CHANCE OF ANYTHING DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AS NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DOES NOT BEGIN TO IMPACT THE REGION UNTIL TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WILL UPDATE TO CLEAN UP CONVECTION WORDING THIS EVENING
BUT MAKE FEW OTHER CHANGES. UPDATES OUT SOON. 20

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 209 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...

DECREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED THIS
EVENING, WANING TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

SHORT TERM...

DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IS STILL AROUND, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS DROPPED DOWN TO AROUND 0.5-0.6". SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA. COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING, BUT IT WILL BE
PRETTY ISOLATED. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN CA LATE TUESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY AID IN KICKING OFF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL.

DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER WITH HOT, DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. HOON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY, THEN TRACKING INLAND ACROSS CA/NV FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACTS
FOR THE REGION WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES, WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS NERN
CA-NWRN NV AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LOW LEVELS RATHER DRY AND
FAST STEERING FLOW, THIS COULD BE A SET UP FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LIMITED RAINFALL.

BY FRIDAY, FURTHER INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS LIKELY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA, WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, BUT DUE TO THE INHERENT
NATURE OF CLOSED LOWS VARYING IN LOCATION/TRACK WE WILL MAKE ONLY
INCREMENTAL INCREASES IN POPS AT THIS TIME, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY, A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY-MONDAY KEEPS THE
REGION IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR-
TYPE BREEZES AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MJD

AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MAIN TERMINALS THRU TUESDAY WITH TYPICAL
SW-W BREEZES WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE THRU 04Z THIS EVE EAST OF BRIDGEPORT-LOVELOCK AND NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUESDAY MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80, BUT LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF CELLS IMPACTING KRNO OR KTRK.
MJD

FIRE WEATHER...

BACK TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK IN THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE SIERRA. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE LIKELY
LIMITED (LAL 2) DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY. NORMAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR
BREEZES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA EACH DAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
IN OUR SIMULATIONS FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE LOWERED HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-SLOPES AND RIDGES. KEEPING AN EYE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR A POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING (LAL 3+), ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE AND A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT SHOWN IN OUR LONG RANGE SIMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASING BUT STILL LOW-MEDIUM. CS

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

303 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY TO NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN NEVADA,
WITH LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS FROM
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WANE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO CUT BACK THUNDERSTORMS
TO MORE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN (AFTERNOON AND EVENING) TIMING FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MOVED THROUGH
WESTERN NEVADA LAST EVENING HAS PUSHED OFF TO WEST OF THE SIERRA
CREST THIS MORNING, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT OVER NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 70 IN NORTHEAST CALIFORNIA. LOOKING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEVADA, ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE IS WORKING NORTH
PER INFRARED SATELLITE INDICATIONS OF COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER
ESMERALDA AND NYE COUNTIES. THE IMPULSE IS PROGGED BY THE 08Z HRRR
TO FIRE UP SHOWERS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE APPROACHING COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND THE
RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE. ELSEWHERE SOUTH AND WEST OF AN ALTURAS TO
RENO TO FALLON LINE, A FEW STRAY SHOWERS OR EVEN A VERY ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKE CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON, THE HRRR AND NAM HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS FOCUSING THE
BEST SHOT AT CONVECTION NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AHEAD THE INCOMING
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THOSE MODELS HAVE ALSO REDUCED THEIR AFTERNOON
PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES AS THEY
FOCUS THE FORCING FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER, PLENTY OF MOISTURE
REMAINS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AND THE NAM SHOWS SOME
WESTERLY WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD PROVIDE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION. THEREFORE, I HAVE HELD OFF ON REDUCING
POP WHOLESALE FOR MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AS FAR AS THE NATURE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, THE RELATIVELY
HIGH MOISTURE BROUGHT INTO THE REGION SINCE YESTERDAY (PWAT NEAR
1" IN RENO CURRENTLY) SHOULD ALLOW FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN
UNDER STORM CORES DESPITE SOME MODEST STORM MOTION OF UP TO 10-15
KTS. IN FACT, IF STORMS GET HUNG UP ON TERRAIN OR TRAIN OVER THE
SAME AREA LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH THE HIGH PWATS.

LATE TONIGHT, AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO TREK SLOWLY
THROUGH NORTHERN NEVADA, SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE BASIN AND RANGE AND OVER EXTREME NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AS PWATS
FALL OFF SOME WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IMPINGING ON THE REGION.
ALSO, WITH WEAKER UPPER FORCING AS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS, STORMS WILL NEED TO RELY ON DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP.
THEREFORE, I HAVE CUT BACK THE THUNDERSTORM TIMING TO MORE
DIURNALLY-DEPENDENT TIMES. STORM FLOW WILL INCREASE FOR MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WHICH MAY BRING HYBRID WET/DRY STORMS BACK INTO PLAY
VERSUS THE WETTER STORMS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION FOR MORE ON THE CONCERNS WITH CONVECTION ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. SNYDER

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
FEW CHANGES MADE TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE FIRST PART OF THE
UPPER LOW EXITING ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN LOW NOW FORECAST TO
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND GERLACH WEDNESDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. AREAS FURTHER SOUTH WILL BE TOO
STABLE. A BREAK IS EXPECTED THURSDAY BEFORE THE MAIN LOW MOVES IN
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND
IT WILL BE COOLER ALOFT WITH IT. WHILE MOISTURE WILL NOT BE GREAT,
THE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTION AT LEAST
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50. ADDED THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR THESE AREAS. STRONG FORCING WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION POSSIBLE. THE STORMS MAY CONTINUE INTO
SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR WESTERN NV AND
70S IN THE SIERRA. A TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM ONLY TO SEE THE FLOW BACK TO THE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH PERHAPS A
LIGHT AFTERNOON ZEPHYR FOR THURSDAY. WALLMANN

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST EARLY
THIS MORNING. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS REMAIN, BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VFR. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING 13-18Z NEAR KMMH AND KHTH, ABOUT A 10%
CHANCE. FOR THE AFTERNOON, EXPECT STORMS TO FIRE AROUND 19Z AND
LAST THRU 02Z NEAR HIGHWAY 395 AND 05Z FURTHER EAST. CHANCE OF
IMPACT AT KTRK/KTVL/KRNO/KCXP ABOUT 35% WITH SMALL HAIL AND SFC
WND GUSTS TO 40 KTS. LESSER CHANCE FOR KMMH THIS AFTERNOON AT
AROUND 25%.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH LESS STORMS FOR MONDAY. ONLY A
20% CHANCE OF STORMS AFFECTING TERMINALS AND LESS THAN 10% FOR
KTRK/KTVL. WALLMANN

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE AFTER THE SCATTERED STORMS FROM EARLIER
THIS MORNING HAVE MOVED WEST OF THE SIERRA CREST. MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO FIRE THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH MOISTURE UP, STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WET. SOME AREAS ALREADY RECEIVED UP TO 3/4" OF RAIN
YESTERDAY FROM STORMS AND THE SAME IS POSSIBLE TODAY. EVEN SO, A FEW
SMALL FIRES OUTSIDE STORM CORES ARE POSSIBLE FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES.

A LITTLE DRIER MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES. IT ALSO APPEARS
TO STABILIZE A BIT WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT BEST EXCEPT
OVER MINERAL COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE MORE HYBRID WET/DRY, BUT WITH
LOWER COVERAGE DO NOT THINK ANY WATCHES/WARNINGS ARE NECESSARY.

TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT A PIECE OF THE UPPER LOW OFF THE
COAST WILL MOVE THROUGH AND THE FORCING WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE
REMAINS WITH PW AROUND 0.6", BUT LAPSE RATES ALOFT ARE ACTUALLY
SOMEWHAT STABLE. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS WITH THE EC/GFS
DRIER AND MORE STABLE WHILE THE NAM SHOWS A SLUG OF MOISTURE NEAR
600 MB THAT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE CONVECTION AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING. IF THE NAM IS RIGHT, A DECENT DRY LIGHTNING
OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE FOR WESTERN NV, WHILE IT WOULD BE ONLY ISOLATED
AT BEST WITH THE EC/GFS. LEANING TOWARD THE EC/GFS FOR NOW, BUT WILL
BE MONITORED.

THE NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE WHEN THE UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES ONSHORE
LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH
COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WITH ONLY MARGINAL MOISTURE. MORE DRY LIGHTNING
IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS LOW AS WELL. WALLMANN

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

237 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW...SOME ON THE STRONG SIDE...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH AZ AND UT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER UT MOVING INTO
NW CO BY 12-15Z MON MORNING. AM PARTICULARLY CONCERNED BY THE
LATEST HIGH RES WRF AND HRRR RUNS...WHICH BOTH SHOW A STRONG BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP MOVING THROUGH SW-CENTRAL CO BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE. IN COORDINATION WITH KGJT AND KABQ HAVE EXPANDED OUR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN JUANS TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
CONTDVD...ALONG WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...THROUGH 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IF THE BANDED HEAVY
PRECIP GETS A DELAYED START...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW INTENSE THE PRECIP WILL BE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTION IS
GENERALLY LESS INTENSE. NEVERTHELESS...ANYONE PLANNING ON BEING IN
OR TRAVELING THROUGH THE MTS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT NEEDS TO BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SUDDEN SMALL STREAM RISES...FLOODED ROADWAYS...AND MUD OR
ROCK SLIDES IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.

TOMORROW...THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE DURING THE
DAY...INTO SRN WY BY 00Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHEAR...THIS WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SERN PLAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HGWY 50
AND E OF I-25...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED LLVL
MOISTURE AND PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE HIGH TEMPS FROM TODAY...SO WILL SEE MAINLY TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S MON AFTERNOON. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MON NIGHT...AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SERN
CO AND AN UPR TROF MOVES NORTHWARD INTO WY...THE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN
ACRS THE FORECAST SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON TUE AN
UPR RIDGE AXIS WL LIE FROM AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...
RESULTING IN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUE...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TUE NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO
ERN CO AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...THE NAM PRINTS OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

ON WED THE UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVR CO WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY JUST SOME
ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THRU ERN CO IN THE EVENING
HOURS TO HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACRS THE PLAINS. ON THU THE
UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES THRU MT WY AND NRN CO. ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN IS EXPECTED
THU AFTERNOON...BUT THEN AS THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN CO BY THU EVENING.

FRI AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR CA...WITH AN UPR RIDGE BEING
OVR CO. MSTR STILL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE
DAY...WITH MAYBE JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
THEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ID AND UT...MONSOON MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN CO AGAIN WHICH WL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD
ACRS MT AND WY SAT NIGHT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE ERN
CO PLAINS. THEN BY SUN IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WL AGAIN BE
CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON MSTR...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVE. AT
KCOS AND KPUB THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST THROUGH AROUND
03Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLD STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. AT
KALS...SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MODT TO HEAVY PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD SEE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY
IFR DEVELOP FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY DUE TO LOW CIGS AND/OR VIS. AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD FROM UT INTO NW CO
AND SW WY...THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF PRECIP AND LOW CIGS GOING
THROUGH MON MORNING FOR MUCH OF SE CO. STORMS COULD REDEVELOP MON
AFTERNOON BEFORE DISSIPATING FROM SW TO NE MON EVENING. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ058-060-061-063-
066>068-072>075.

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1119 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATED TO DELAY TIMING OF HIGHER POPS BY A FEW HOURS. STILL NOT
SEEING THE PRECIP OVER SW CO MOVE INTO OUR AREA...BUT SHOULD SEE
FAIRLY STEADY INCREASE IN PRECIP THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR AND
OTHER GUIDANCE IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT QPF OVER THE WRN CWA THIS
EVENING. WILL CONSIDER EXPANDING THE FLOOD WATCH BASED ON TRENDS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ROSE

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH 60S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE UNDER A BROAD
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO ROTATE NORTHWARD ACROSS
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE...AND MODELS DEVELOP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY INTO THE EASTERN SAN JUANS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. ALL WILL COMBINE TO PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SAN JUAN RANGE...NORTH INTO
THE LA GARITA MOUNTAINS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS...AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE OF
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST FORK COMPLEX BURN SCAR. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BURN SCAR AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER ALL THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS AND THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CORES ALONG
WITH LIGHTNING.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. MOST HIGH-RES
MODELS BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON LIMITING
AFTERNOON INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL. THAT BEING SAID...MOST HIGH-RES SOLUTIONS DO BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND RATON MESA
REGIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THESE
LOCATIONS. THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SOLUTIONS...NAMELY THE ARW AND THE
NSSL WRF...WHICH DO BRING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY THIS EVENING...AND HAVE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UNCERTAINTY. THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WILL MOST
LIKELY REMAIN DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DISSIPATING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION LOOKS TO BE
ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE INFLUENCES OF THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER UTAH INTO WESTERN COLORADO WILL REMAIN FELT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...MONSOON EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIER FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MONSOON RETURNING BY WEEKS END...

ON MONDAY...SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE...CARRYING MONSOON MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REGION. WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE HIGH WITH
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION AIDED BY LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE.
SO...ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH PRIMARY THREATS
OF LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN...ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SOME
SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN.

TUESDAY IS NOT CURRENTLY LOOKING AS MOIST AS IT ONCE DID. MODELS
ARE INDICATING...NOW...THAT DRIER AIR FROM THE WEST WILL ALREADY
BE MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR CONVECTION THIS DAY...BUT MUCH LESS SO
THAN ON MONDAY. STILL THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THIS DAY...BUT STARTING TO TREND TOWARD MORE OF A GUSTY WIND
THREAT AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK LIKE MOSTLY DRY AND WARM DAYS...AS DRY
WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE REGION...AND THE MONSOON GETS
SUPPRESSED WELL TO THE SOUTH. MOSTLY ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN ON THESE DAYS WITH PRIMARILY A LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WIND THREAT. A LITTLE TRICKY THURSDAY EVENING...THOUGH...AS SOME
MODEL RUNS ARE CLIPPING THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH AN MCS MOVING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO
THE MONSOON. MODELS INDICATE AN INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND TRACK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN ON SATURDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INLAND...IT LOOKS LIKE
IT WILL PULL ANOTHER STRONG SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE NORTH INTO
COLORADO. THE MOISTURE STARTS TO SHOW UP ON FRIDAY...BUT REALLY
BLANKETS THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WITH THE RETURN OF THE MONSOON
MOISTURE PLUME...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
RETURN...ALONG WITH CONTINUED THREATS OF LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN AVN CONCERN TODAY IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH TS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SCT TO NMRS TS OVER THE CONTDVD WILL
BUILD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. KALS HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. COULD SEE MVFR
OR BRIEF IFR DEVELOP AFTER 21-22Z AND PERSISTING AT TIMES THROUGH
TONIGHT. DEPENDING ON EXTENT OF PRECIP COULD POTENTIALLY SEE SOME
LOCALIZED LOW CIGS MON MORNING OVER THE SAN LUIS VALLEY.

AT KCOS AND KPUB...TIMING OF STORMS WILL BE LATER AND LESS
LIKELY...AS THE MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP REMAINS OVER THE MTS.
HOWEVER...ISOLD STORMS COULD AFFECT THE I-25 CORRIDOR THROUGH
EARLY EVE. SFC WINDS SHOULD SHIFT TO AN ERLY DIRECTION DURING
THIS TIME BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THIS EVENING. ROSE

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ067-068.

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1050 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CURRENTLY...QUIET WEATHER HAS SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO EARLY
THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED MILD WITH 60S OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UNDER LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...MONSOON EARLY IN THE WEEK...DRIER FOR A COUPLE DAYS...THEN
MONSOON RETURNING BY WEEKS END...

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 341 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THEY WILL MOST LIKELY
IMPACT THE TERMINAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. REDUCED CIGS AND VIS
ARE EXPECTED IN PASSING THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING NEAR THE TERMINAL.
IF A THUNDERSTORMS DOES MOVE OVER THE TERMINAL...IT WILL REDUCE THE
CIGS AND VIS...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE IS
A LOW PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE
IS LOW AT THIS TIME. MOZLEY

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COZ067-068.

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO

936 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END OVER THE FAR NE CORNER WITH
THE HELP OF HIGH DEWPOINTS AND THE EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET.
EXPECT DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INCREASED POPS OVER THE PLAINS
WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND A FRONT NORTH OF NEBRASKA THAT IS STILL
PROGGED TO TRACK INTO NE COLORADO BY THIS EVENING/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR HAS SOME GUSTY WINDS MOVING SOUTH
OUT OF WY FROM OUTFLOWS PROVIDED BY STORM DEVELOPMENT TO THE
NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN THREATS
STILL LOOK TO BE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE
STORMS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 340 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO COLORADO WITH A
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN COLORADO. OVERALL NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN MOISTURE LEVELS OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH
INTEGRATED PW VALUES JUST UNDER AN INCH OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND
A BIT HIGHER OVER WESTERN COLORADO. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER NOW OVER THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF COLORADO.
THERE IS AN UPPER WAVE OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WHICH WILL SLOWLY
ROTATE INTO WESTERN COLORADO TONIGHT WHICH WILL AID IN ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE AND WEAK QG LIFT.

INITIALLY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON BUT SLOWLY SNEAK OUT ONTO THE PLAINS DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON. A WEAK MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION REMAINS WHICH
WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ON THE PLAINS WITH OVERALL SURFACE BASED
CAPE VALUES UNDER 700J/KG. APPEARS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
APPROACH THE FAR NE PLAINS TOWARDS EVENING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE4
OF THUNDERSTORMS SPARKING THERE. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SATURDAYS READINGS BUT MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO DOWN
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE WITH MORE CLOUD COVER. WILL KEEP LOW
POPS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER TROF WILL
APPROACH WITH AIDED MOISTURE AND LIFT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO SWING NEWRD ACROSS N-
CNTRL/NERN CO MON AFTERNOON/EVENING...THEN SEWRD ACRS ERN WY/WRN
SD/WRN NE ON TUE AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE 4-CORNERS RGN.
SHOULD SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHWRS/T-STORMS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY
DURING THE DAY MON AND SCATTERED T-STORMS ON THE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SYSTEM APPEARS MOST ROBUST ON THE NAM
AND ONLY LACK LUSTER ON THE ECMWF. NAM GENERATES SOME RIDICULOUSLY
HIGH CAPES ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF CO IN THE VCNTY OF A STALLED SFC
FRONTAL ZONE STRADDLING THE NERN CORNER OF THE STATE AND A LOW-LEVEL
JET ALIGNED WITH THE STATE`S ERN BORDER MON NIGHT AND TUE. GFS...
ECMWF AND SREF INDICATE FAR LESS INSTABILITY BUT STILL INDICATE
DECENT SHEAR IN THE VCNTY OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. MEANWHILE THE
CANADIAN MODEL GOES SO FAR AS TO SPIN UP A CLOSED 700-500MB LOW OVER
NERN CO LATE MON AND THEN DEEPENS IT AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS E/SEWRD
ACRS NWRN KS OVERNIGHT. PREFER A BLEND OF THE MODELS...EXCLUDING THE
CANADIAN GEM...CENTERED ON THE GFS SOLUTION. FOR THE PLAINS...PLAN
ON GOING WITH HIGHER POPS UP AGAINST THE NRN FRONT RANGE AND ALONG
THE WY BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND OUT ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF
THE STATE MON NIGHT. STORMS FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW-LEVEL JET ARE MORE LIKELY TO PRODUCE HVY
RAINFALL...STG GUSTY WNDS AND HAIL. HIGH TEMPS ON MON EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGS LOWER THAN THOSE ON SUNDAY DUE IN LARGE PART TO
CONSIDERABLE MORE CLOUDINESS.

ON TUE...SHOULD SEE PRECIP CHANCES QUICKLY DECREASE FROM WEST-TO-
EAST AS DRIER/COOLER AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER COULD SEE A MODEST UPTICK IN SHOWER/T-STORM
ACTIVITY ACRS THE NERN CORNER OF THE CWA TUE AFTERNOON WITH THE
SHORT-WAVE DYNAMICS BRUSHING THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN THE DAY BEFORE BUT STILL BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE.

WED THROUGH SAT...A STRONG UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION ON
WED RETURNING TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MID-LEVEL PERTABATION ROUNDING THE TOP OF THIS RIDGE AND POSSIBLY
GENERATING A FEW T-STORMS ACROSS THE FAR NERN CORNER OF THE CWA WED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OTHERWISE A DRY DAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND
LOWER HUMIDITY. ON THU...MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SOMEWHAT STRONGER
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND DOWN ACRS
THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. THE TAIL END OF THE DISTURBANCE APPEARS TO
CLIP THE NERN CORNER OF FCST AREA THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
POTENTIALLY PRODUCING ANOTHER ROUND OF T-STORMS. MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHT COOLER ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
THU. ON FRI...RIDGE REGAINS ITS GRIP ON COLORADO RESULTING IN
WARMER TEMPS AND MORE SUNSHINE. HOWEVER WITH THE WARMER TEMPS AND
SUNSHINE COULD SEE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON T-STORMS FORMING
OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND MOVING OUT OVER THE PLAINS BY THE
EVENING. ON SAT...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST ALLOWING
SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO USHER IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. TOO SOON TO KNOW WITH ANY
CERTAINTY HOW WET AND STORMY SAT MAY TURN OUT. WILL NEED TO KEEP
AN EYE THIS LATE WEEK SYSTEM.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SHRA IN A
TEMPO WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND A WEAK CAP WITH INCREASED
INSTABILITY. COULD SEE SOME OUTFLOWS FROM THE NORTH THAT WILL HELP
TO BRING IN SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH A LINE OF RAINSHOWERS
AROUND 23Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY THEN TRANSITION TO
THE NW BEFORE GOING TO DRAINAGE BY THIS EVENING AS STORMS CLEAR
OUT.

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BOWEN
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...BOWEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...

FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE CO. WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NM...BEST T-STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEWLY OPERATIONAL RADAR IN THE SAN JUANS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS...JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVE. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER STORMS WILL SURVIVE MOVING ONTO THE SERN PLAINS E OF I-
25...BUT ISOLD POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
EXPECT MOST OF THE T-STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE SW MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
IF SUFFICIENT PRECIP CAN FALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE.

TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN
MTS. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUN
AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS ANCHORED
ALONG THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND ACRS CO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE SERN CORNER OF CO OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. BOT MODELS SHOW PCPN
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE CONTDVD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE ERN MTNS. FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NAM HAS MAINLY SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
CORNER THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS. SINCE THERE IS A DISTURBANCE
IN THE AREA...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE
NIGHT. THRU THE DAY MON...THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID...WY AND NERN CO. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SCT
PCPN OVR THE HYR TRRN ON MON...WHILE THE NAM IS MAINLY DRY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. MON NIGHT THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ENDING BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES PCPN OVR THE FAR
ERN BORDER AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON
WED...WHICH WL KEEP THE MONSOON MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MTN AREA
SHOWERS/TSTMS. ON THU A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
WY...THEN PUSHING A FRONT THRU ERN CO. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AND MCS
OVR ERN FOR THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT AND LEAVES THE AREA
RATHER DRY. FOR NOW WL GO WITH THE DRY SOLUTION AND SEE HOW THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD CO...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH SAT.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1124 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE KALS...KCOS AND KPUB TAF
SITES INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

957 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO NORTHEAST
FLORIDA. THIS TROUGH WAS THE FOCAL POINT FOR STRONG STORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS AREAS OF THE SOUTH. NEARLY 5 INCHES OF RAIN
ALONG WITH FLOODING WAS REPORTED JUST SOUTHWEST OF GAINESVILLE
THIS EVE. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
WITH LOW AND TROUGH AXIS MEANDERING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...WILL
KEEP POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES.
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE MAINLY DRY WITH ISOLATED STORMS ENDING
THIS EVE.

.AVIATION...OCNL LOW END MVFR VSBY AND CIGS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE EVENING CONVECTION
EXPECTED FROM GNV TO SGJ WHERE IFR VSBY ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES.
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATE THAT MVFR CIGS MAY PREVAIL OVERNIGHT
WITH OCNL VFR POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY ALSO PERSIST
NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER NE FL AND SE GA. LOW CIGS MAY BE SLOWER
TO BREAK OUT ALONG THE SE GA COAST PER LATEST HRRR MODEL
GUIDANCE NEAR THE SFC LOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND LINGERING SFC
TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PART OF FORECAST AREA WITH VICINITY TSTM IN
TAF FCST AT THIS TIME.

.MARINE...TIGHT GRADIENT FROM SURFACE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH AN EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR SHORE.

RIP CURRENTS: LOW RISK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 74 97 74 95 / 20 20 20 30
SSI 76 93 75 88 / 40 30 30 30
JAX 74 92 75 92 / 40 50 30 50
SGJ 75 89 74 89 / 80 50 30 40
GNV 73 90 72 89 / 80 40 30 40
OCF 74 89 72 89 / 80 40 30 30

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.

PP/ARS/JC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

925 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
01Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24 TO
30 HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXITING NE FLORIDA AND
SLOWLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE CAROLINA COASTLINE.
TO OUR SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND BEGINNING THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING BACK NORTHWARD
TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA BY
MIDWEEK.

ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY HAVE IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE
LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON QUICKLY DISSIPATED
AFTER 18Z...AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER
VORTICITY CENTER. RENEWED SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY ORGANIZED DURING
THE EVENING OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND HAS SINCE SHIFTED SOUTHWARD
INTO LEVY COUNTY AS OF 8-9 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT
OF LOWER LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC
LIFT ALONG THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE CONTINUE TO LOOSE THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
FOR ASCENT...AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
IN THE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS STILL OVER THE FAR NORTHERN NATURE
COAST ZONES...AND THEN LATER TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW SCT SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT BY THESE PROCESSES...AND THE EXPLICIT MODELS QPF LINE
UP AS WELL.

THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
OVER THE STATE...FINALLY NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN
A FEEBLE SEA-BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE
PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL
SUPPORT A SCATTERING OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COAST DURING THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN
MIND...IS THAT SOIL MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING ITS
EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND OVERALL BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION
SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY
LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY
RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS. ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE
THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE
TO RETURN MORE TOWARD NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD
POTENTIAL TO BE EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS
(WHICH STILL HAVE A AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK
AS THROUGH THEY WILL BE IMPROVING.

.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.

.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS LATE OVERNIGHT AROUND
KPIE/KTPA...AND THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING NORTHEAST FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST OVERNIGHT. ELEVATED SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMER PATTERN BY MID-WEEK.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.

.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.

THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY. MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 78 90 / 30 30 10 40
FMY 75 92 76 93 / 20 40 40 40
GIF 73 91 76 94 / 20 40 40 50
SRQ 77 88 76 90 / 20 30 10 20
BKV 75 89 72 92 / 30 40 30 50
SPG 77 89 79 90 / 30 30 10 30

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MIAMI FL

806 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. LATEST HRRR CONTINUES TO BE CONSISTENT IN
DEVELOPING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
2 AM WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE THEREAFTER.

.AVIATION...

CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED/SCATTERED TSRA
PSBL BY LATE TUE MRNG...BUT MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE INLAND OF
TERMINALS. WITH POPS AROUND 30 PERCENT...ELECTED TO NOT INTRODUCE
VCSH FOR ANY SITE EXCEPT KPBI. LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SE 10 KTS
OR LESS TUESDAY AFTER SUNRISE.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DRIVEN CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IS ROTATION WITHIN STORMS INTERSECTING THESE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MORNING MFL SOUNDING CONTINUED TO SHOW DRYING
IN THE MID- LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS PRONOUNCED AS IN PREVIOUS
DAYS. ALSO FREEZING LEVELS ARE A BIT HIGHER WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER
H5 TEMPERATURES. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH CONTINUED LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS...THE
VAST MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER DARK WITH
ONLY A FEW LINGERING STORMS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT MAINLY ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH
MIDWEEK WITH FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH GENERAL
SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW. THIS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/SEABREEZE INTERACTIONS WILL HELP FACILITATE LIKELY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

MODELS ARE STILL CONSISTENT BUILDING IN DEEP LAYER RIDGING ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ACCOMPANIED
BY A WEAK SAHARAN DUST LAYER. THIS WILL ACT TO DECREASE OVERALL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ECMWF
CURRENTLY DEPICTS A STRONGER AND MORE NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE SAL INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THE DRIEST AIR FURTHER SOUTH AND
ACROSS THE KEYS. SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE THEN RETURNS LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHERN STREAM H5
SHORTWAVE DIGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABORAD GRADUALLY
WEAKENING MID LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

MARINE... SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING
AROUND 10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
THIS WEEK WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. LIGHTER AND MAINLY
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT ALONG
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 91 79 90 / 20 40 10 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 78 90 80 90 / 20 30 20 40
MIAMI 78 91 79 92 / 20 30 10 40
NAPLES 76 91 76 91 / 10 30 20 30

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

UPATED...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

328 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH STORMS AGAIN TODAY...

CURRENT...KMLB NEXRAD 88D SHOWS SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN ECHOES MOVING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL EARLY THIS MORNING.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AGAIN SHOWS A BLANKET OF MID/UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ALL SOUTH OF A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST U.S.
MSAS/SURFACE OBS SHOW THAT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS HAS CREPT NORTH TO
NEAR SOUTH-CENTRAL FL. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AGAIN LIES
ACROSS THE AREA. CAPE 915 MHZ PROFILER WINDS OUT OF THE S/SSW
AVERAGE BETWEEN 20 AND 30 KTS OFF THE DECK UP TO AROUND 10.0 KFT.
SURFACE S/SSW WINDS ARE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 MPH WITH TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.

TODAY-TONIGHT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL CONTINUE AROUND 2
INCHES AREAWIDE EARLY...BUT THE GFS SUGGESTS SOME DRIER AIR
FILTERING INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF I-4 LATER IN THE DAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. S/SSW
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TOWARD AROUND
15 MPH...POSSIBLY FLIRTING WITH 15-20 MPH (BREEZY) AT TIMES AND SOME
HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY. THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST MAY SEE WINDS BACK
TO SSE/SE IN THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE WILL MAKE CLOUD
COVER HARD TO OVERCOME FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AGAIN TODAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL CONTINUE IN THE U80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

THE DEEP/STOUT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW SCT SHRA/ISOLD TSRA
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON TO TRAVERSE THE PENINSULA
WITH SHOWER COVERAGE FORECAST TO BECOME NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER
WITH MODELS SHOWING A RANGE BETWEEN -5.5 AND -6.5 DEGREES CELSIUS
ACROSS ECFL. THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT FAIRLY GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ACROSS THE EAST COAST/COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE FAIRLY QUICK AND OUT
OF THE SW AT 15 TO 20 KTS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH STRONGER ACTIVITY
CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 50 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN A FEW CELLS.

MARINERS ON INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL/NEAR
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY WESTWARD
FOR DEVELOPING/APPROACHING STORMS. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING...THOUGH A SCHC FOR A SHOWER WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ALMOST EVERYWHERE. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 70S. S/SSW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO
AROUND 5 MPH THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY...SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SE GA AND MOVE NE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A TRAILING AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
STRETCHING SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS NRN SECTIONS MONDAY MORNING AND
DROPPING SLOWLY SE INTO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NRN SECTIONS IN THE MORNING WITH SOME EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS. EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES INTO MID DAY INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS SRN SECTIONS BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH STORMS AND GUSTY WINDS AS STORMS APPROACH
THE EAST COAST MAINLY NORTH OF FT PIERCE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S NORTH TO LOWER 90S ACROSS SRN ZONES WHERE MORE MORNING
SUN IS EXPECTED BEFORE SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE SFC AND LOW LVL RIDGE WILL WORK SLOWLY NORTHWARD TWD
FAR SRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WE BEGIN TO LOSE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SFC LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAD BEEN NORTH OF
THE AREA FOR THE LAST WEEK OR SO. OVERALL WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS IN
THE SFC TO 850 LAYER WITH LATE DAY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FAVORING
INTERIOR SECTIONS ESPEC INLAND FROM THE TREASURE COAST. WILL
FORECAST 30-40 POPS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND 40-50 PCT OVER THE
INTERIOR. HIGHS FROM 89 TO 92 DEGS.

WED...SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW IS FORECAST AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE WITH
INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES MOVING TWD THE NRN INTERIOR LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOWEST POPS AROUND 30 PCT
WILL BE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD MOVE
INLAND INTO MID AFTERNOON. WILL FORECAST 40-50 PCT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR FOR MID TO LATE AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS. HIGHS NEAR 90
COASTAL TO THE LOWER 90S FOR THE INTERIOR.

THU...THE LOW LVL RIDGE WILL SHIFT A BIT SOUTHWARD AGAIN BY THU AFTN
AS A 500 MB S/W TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SE STATES. MOISTURE LEVELS
APPEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED STORMS WHICH WILL MOVE TWD THE EAST
COAST LATE IN THE DAY WITH STEERING FLOW FROM THE WEST INTO THE
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES 40 PCT CSTL TO 50 PCT FROM ORLANDO SOUTH
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HIGHS 90-92 DEGS.

FRI-SUN...A DEEPENING L/W TROUGH ACROSS THE ERN STATES FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL PRODUCE DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR EASTWARD MOVING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY...LIKELY ALONG A PROGRESSIVE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND POSSIBLY ALONG AN EAST COAST BREEZE PINNED
NEAR THE EAST COAST IF THE WESTERLY FLOW IS NOT TOO STRONG. WILL
KEEP RAIN CHANCES MAINLY IN THE 40-50 PCT RANGE FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S.

.AVIATION...A SIMILAR PATTERNS SITS IN PLACE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HRRR HINTS AGAIN AT CONVECTION ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA MOVING INTO ECFL LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
MOVING OFF OF THE COAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON (NORTH TO SOUTH).
MOIST CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN A DEEP SWRLY FLOW PATTERN WITH
SHRA/TSRA BECOMING SCT-NMRS AGAIN AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING. SKIES TO REMAIN CONSIDERABLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE
PERIOD. S/SSW SFC WINDS A BIT STRONGER AS WITH YESTERDAY AND GUSTY
AT TIMES. ALONG THE TREASURE COAST WINDS MAY BACK TO S/SSE AS THE
SFC RIDGE AXIS LIES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AS WITH PREVIOUS
DAYS...PRECIPITATION LATE THIS MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAY
DISTORT THE WIND FIELD WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THAN
FORECAST WITH VARYING DIRECTION. TEMPO IFR/MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA. CELL
MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NE AT 15 TO 20 KTS. FOR TAFS...VCSH/VCTS FROM
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPO GROUPS ADDED AS CONFIDENCE
PERMITS. THREATS FROM CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE LIGHTNING...
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL WIND DOWN
THROUGH THE EVENING AND WINDS WILL DECREASE.

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS OVER THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE NEXT 24
HRS. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS SEEM APPROPRIATE AGAIN FOR GUSTY S/SSW
WINDS OFFSHORE/NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. WILL ALLOW FUTURE SHIFTS TO
MONITOR AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY. SLIGHTLY LOWER WIND SPEEDS ARE
FORECAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT HERE. WIND SPEEDS MAINLY 10-15 KTS
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE.

WINDS/SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF QUICK MOVING OFFSHORE
SHOWERS/STORMS. OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS REMAIN A THREAT
THROUGH THE DAY/EVENING AND COVERAGE WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH LATER
TODAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMEMBER THAT STRONG WINDS MAY ARRIVE WELL
AHEAD OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING.

MONDAY...SW WINDS MAINLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. A FEW COULD
BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS GREATER THAN 35 KNOTS. SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT
TO 4 FT ACROSS THE NRN OFFSHORE WATERS.

TUE-THU...S-SW WINDS TUE WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE
BY WED/THU AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE TO
3 FT OFFSHORE. A LOWER COVERAGE OF ATLC SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED
INTO MID WEEK.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 73 87 73 / 60 30 60 20
MCO 89 74 88 73 / 60 20 60 20
MLB 91 76 89 75 / 50 20 60 30
VRB 91 72 91 72 / 50 30 50 30
LEE 86 75 87 74 / 60 30 60 20
SFB 89 75 88 73 / 60 20 60 20
ORL 89 75 88 75 / 60 20 60 20
FPR 91 73 91 73 / 50 30 50 30

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...SEDLOCK
LONG TERM....VOLKMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1048 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LATE. SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ALONG THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
BE IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY SET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS
TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL YIELD HOT
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
TO ENHANCE ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY INITIATE STORMS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ACTING
ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. GFS INDICATING UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE
LOWER 90S END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM MOS AND HRRR PLUS CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z. STRONG HEATING MAY HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE THE CHANCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
77

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1044 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID
70S.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

722 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE MESO-ANALYSIS STILL INDICATED A STRONG PRECIPITABLE WATER
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE TO
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM MOS AND HRRR PLUS CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING MVFR OR
IFR CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO
VFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z. STRONG HEATING MAY HELP
SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE THE CHANCE WAS TOO
LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

$$
99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

1031 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD
TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA.

WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS THIS
MORNING SHOULD SHIFT TO THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. FOG/STRATUS
RAPIDLY MIXING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA AT 14Z.
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY.

MODELS SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DRY AND CAPPED AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY. AIR MASS WEAKLY UNSTABLE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH MIDLANDS/CSRA. POSSIBLE SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW FROM COASTAL
CONVECTION COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THERE THIS
AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

THE NAM AND RAP MODELS SUGGEST FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT. KEPT LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SUGGEST WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE AREA WILL
MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL FRONT MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE FLUX CONFINED TO THE COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AS AIR MASS INLAND REMAINS MAINLY DRY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...HOWEVER THE BULK OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LOW POPS ACROSS CWA. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS MONDAY IN THE
EXTREME EAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. DRY AIR MASS
EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH WARMING CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY NEAR 100
DEGREES IN A FEW AREAS AS 850MB WARM ADVECTION/DOWN SLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION AT MOST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE 30-40 PERCENT
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S
THROUGH MID- WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AT CAE/CUB. MORNING FOG/STRATUS
AFFECTING AGS/DNL/OGB LIFTING. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY
16Z.

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA WITH DRY AIR NORTH AND
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH. A DRY AND CAPPED
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MIDLANDS...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION. AN
ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH
POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

FOG/STRATUS...POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS COLUMBIA SC

142 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED EAST AND SOUTH OF
THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE OUT WEST WITH A BROAD TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST COAST. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING AS SEABREEZE HAD PUSHED INTO THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND CSRA
BRINGING WITH IT DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S.
AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE MID
50S/MID 60S. MODELS SHOWING POOL OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT. WV LOOP CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. EXPECT SOME FOG TO FORM TOWARD MORNING GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BEST CHANCE FOR FOG WILL BE ACROSS
THE EASTERN MIDLANDS/CSRA WHERE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY
RESIDE.

MET MOS GUIDANCE HAS COOL BIAS OVERNIGHT MINS HAVE STAYED WITH
SLIGHTLY WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER
CSRA. MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS KEEPS THE AREA DRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
RETURNS TO THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. RAISED POPS INTO THE
30-40 PERCENT THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
MID 90S THROUGH MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE LOWER 90S THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WHICH LEADS
TO FOG CONCERNS. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR
ALOFT WHICH TENDS TO AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING AND FOG DEVELOPMENT.
DESPITE SHALLOW SEA BREEZE OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED THROUGH
EARLIER THIS EVENING...DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR EXISTS ACROSS THE NORTHER
NAND CENTRAL FA NEAR CAE/CUB AND IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL
THERE. HOWEVER...TO THE SOUTH WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MLOISTURE
EXISTS...THE FOG POTENTIAL IS GREATER...ESPECIALLY AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB. LATEST HRRR INDICATES SOME STRATUS POTENTIAL NEAR
AGS AND DNL AS WELL NEAR WHERE BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE OCCURRED
SATURDAY. WILL INDICATE PREDOMINATE IFR FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE FOG
PRONE SITES AGS AND OGB...AND MVFR FOG AT DNL...AND WILL INDICATE
TEMPO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT DNL AND AGS. WILL MAINTAIN VFR
CONDITIONS AT CAE/CUB.

SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN FA
TODAY. A DRY AND CAPPED ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE CONVECTION
THERE. AN ISOLATED MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY OCCUR
MAINLY SOUTH POSSIBLY NEAR DNL/AGS/OGB...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO AVIATION EXPECTED.

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

559 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO ROUNDS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE THIS MORNING AND MAY AFFECT BRL AND MLI. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY USED PROB30 AS NOT
SURE WHETHER OR NOT THIS AM CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TONIGHTS. COULD
SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS QUAD CITIES IA IL

516 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DODGE CITY KS

605 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

...Updated aviation discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Models continue to suggest an upper level shortwave moving through
Colorado this afternoon then through western and central Kansas
this evening into the overnight period. Thunderstorm chances
increase across eastern Colorado and far southwestern Kansas late
this afternoon then slide eastward as the MCS across the forecast
area. A few storms across far southwestern Kansas may become
severe late this afternoon into the evening hours with large hail
and damaging winds being the main concern. The best chance of
precipitation will be along the counties closest to the Oklahoma
border with lesser chances as you head northward. A second batch
of thunderstorms may form across central portions of the state
early tomorrow morning then transition eastward as the morning
progresses. Skies will be mostly cloudy this afternoon through the
overnight period with winds generally from a south to south
southeast direction. Skies clear across far western Kansas
tomorrow with continued cloudiness across central and south
central Kansas. There will be a slight chance of continuing
thunderstorms across central and south central Kansas during the
morning hours shifting farther north across central and west
central Kansas in the afternoon as the aforementioned shortwave
moves through northern Kansas and Nebraska. Winds continue to be
from a southerly direction tomorrow as a trough of low pressure
continues across eastern Colorado. As for temperatures, lows
tonight look to range from the mid 60s across far western Kansas
to around 70 degrees across central and south central Kansas.
Highs tomorrow look to range from the mid 80s across central
Kansas to lower 90s across far southwestern Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

The large upper level high continues south of the region through
the extended portion of the forecast with weak shortwaves moving
eastward across the northern half of the United States. A few
thunderstorms may be possible across central Kansas Tuesday night
as the previous shortwave moves out of the area but should
dissipate or move out of the forecast area by midnight. Skies
clear across central and south central Kansas overnight. A weak
frontal boundary also pushes eastward Tuesday night shifting winds
to more of a northerly direction. This continues Wednesday through
a majority of Thursday with continued mostly clear skies. A slight
chance of thunderstorms will then be possible across central
Kansas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as a weak shortwave
moves through the flow. A few more shortwaves move through the
area this weekend into early next week bringing chances of
thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon and evening hours.
Otherwise expect partly cloudy skies and winds generally from a
southerly direction. Lows through the extended part of the
forecast look to generally be in the mid to upper 60s Tuesday
night with upper 60s and lower 70s through the weekend. Highs will
generally be in the lower to mid 90s with Thursday being the
warmest day when upper 90s will be possible.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 604 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible overnight ahead of an
upper level trough which is forecast to cross western Kansas
between 03z and 12z Tuesday. 18z NAM BUFR soundings indicating
cloud bases with these storms will vary from 2500 to 3500 ft AGL.
Timing of when the better opportunity for thunderstorms and lower
ceilings remain somewhat unclear but at this this time have
trended towards the latest RAP and HRRR. This would favor the
scattered thunderstorms in the Garden City area from 02z to 06z
Tuesday and in the Dodge City area from around 06z to near 12z
Tuesday. WInds overnight outside these thunderstorms will be south
to southeast at 10 knots or less.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 87 66 94 / 50 20 10 10
GCK 66 88 65 94 / 40 10 10 10
EHA 65 92 66 95 / 60 10 10 0
LBL 68 92 67 96 / 70 10 10 10
HYS 69 83 66 90 / 20 30 40 10
P28 70 88 69 94 / 60 60 20 10

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hovorka_42
LONG TERM...Hovorka_42
AVIATION...Burgert

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.

OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.

FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 KTS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY BEFORE TAPERING IN THE EVENING.

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SO FAR IT HAS BEEN A
STRUGGLE TO COME UP WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOMETHING
GOING...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRY TO MOVE
EAST...AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. FIGURE
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DONE BY SUNSET.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING DRY. THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FLIRTING WITH SOUTHWEST INDIANA
STRADDLING 12Z MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING
TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT HERE.

THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS ARE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND WHERE EXACTLY
IT WILL BE. THE 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD BE
CUTTING ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY
EVENING...OR WHETHER IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA. IF IT DOES
FOCUS CONVECTION IT WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL LOOK
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS IT SETS UP ALONG/NEAR I-64.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE IT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CHANCES FOCUSED IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY. WILL THEN INCREASE THEM SOME TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.

TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOL IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY...AND THIS HAS
BEEN THE TREND FOR AWHILE NOW. THEREFORE...WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSER AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING,
AND THIS OVERALL GIVES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN GOING HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE PERIODS. A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY,
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF AND GFS
IMPLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT SOME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL OVERALL BE IN THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
OF VCTS AROUND KCGI THIS AFTERNOON BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE. WILL WATCH TRENDS AND AMEND IF NECESSARY. SCATTERED CU
WILL BE PRESENT AT KCGI AND KPAH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY VEER AROUND TO WESTERLY TMRW AS WEAK FRONT
PUSHES THRU. VCTS COULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT BY THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KEVV AND KOWB BUT PROBABILITY IS LOW AT THIS
TIME.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MUCH OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE RIVER VALLEYS THIS
MORNING HAS DISSIPATED. WE ARE LEFT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
SKIES UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. FORECAST IS ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE OVERALL TOWARDS LATEST OBS
AND TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP THE SKY MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE
STATE...BUT A SMATTERING OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING OVER
EAST KENTUCKY AND OUT OF THE AREA ATTM. SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW
NIGHTS...AN INVERSION HAS SET UP WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS
UNDERWAY. THIS HAS LED TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES WITH SOME UPPER 50S FOUND IN THE DEEPER
SPOTS WHILE HILLTOPS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 60S. WINDS REMAIN
LIGHT TO CALM ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY WITH NOT MUCH EVIDENCE OF FOG
OUT THERE YET. HOWEVER...AGAIN SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS...
EXPECT THE FOG TO FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS BEFORE DAWN ALONG WITH
LOCALLY DENSE PATCHES.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS A BROAD AREA OF
TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND DOWN INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ACROSS TO NEW ENGLAND. A WIGGLE AT THE CORE OF THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL SEND A LARGE AMOUNT OF ENERGY INTO THE
GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY ALONG WITH A MID LEVEL GRADIENT THAT
TIGHTENS...RESULTING IN FASTER FLOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. GIVEN
THE AGREEMENT ALOFT WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED SOLUTION WITH EMPHASIS
ON THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON AND THE BROADER CONSENSUS LATER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID
80S UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. THIS WILL LEAD INTO ONE MORE NIGHT
OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
DIFFERENCES INTO MONDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG
TOWARDS DAWN. BY MONDAY...THOUGH...THE SFC PATTERN WILL CHANGE
WITH A COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
TOWARD EAST KENTUCKY. THIS WILL LIKELY KICK OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE STATE THAT SHOULD HELP TO SPAWN
ADDITIONAL STORMS TO THE SOUTH WITH TIME THROUGH THE DAY. ANY
STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN EAST
KENTUCKY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OWING
TO HIGH CAPES AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL WINDS. THE BEST CHANCES
WILL BE OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND SPC HAS
INDICATED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THERE. WILL HIGHLIGHT
THIS CONCERN IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO.

STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH
THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO MONDAY. DID MAKE SOME
SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT
WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...KEPT
THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRY GUIDANCE INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DID GO A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIAL INTRUSION OF STORMS...
ORGANIZED OR OTHERWISE...FROM THE NORTH BY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN MAINTAINING A RIDGE OVER THE WEST AND THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A CLOSED LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY AREA
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS BY
THURSDAY...A SERIES OF STRONGER TROUGHS COME ASHORE OVER THE WEST AS
THE WESTERN RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN A BIT AND SHIFT EAST. THIS
THROUGH THE LAST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE FORECAST
CHALLENGE AS THE BASE OF THE EASTERN TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE MID MS
VALLEY AND THROUGH KY. THE GFS AND EURO DOES ALIGN A BIT WITH THIS
SOLUTION.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...THE FRONT THAT HAS PASSED THROUGH ON MONDAY
WILL LAG ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY DEVELOPS.
THIS AREA BECOMES A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS
THE BOUNDARY SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER THE AREA
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES TOPPLE OVER THE THE TOP OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE SUPER
BLEND HAS THIS IN IT/S SOLUTION AS WELL WITH THE PATTERN FAVORABLE
FOR NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IF THIS PATTERN FOR
MCS/S REMAIN...WHICH SEEMS LIKELY BASED UPON THE GFS AND EURO
SOLUTIONS . THUS WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE SUPER BLENDS SOLUTION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN LOSES A BIT AMPLITUDE AND BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND
EURO DO DIVERGE TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED. THUS...LACKING
CONFIDENCE...WILL GO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SUPER BLEND ON POPS.
THE LINGERING TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND SAGGING SOUTH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WILL KEEP HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. IN SHORT...THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY PERIOD SEEMS TO BE
QUITE ACTIVE AND WET WITH THE END OF THE FORECAST POSSIBLY
CONTINUING THIS TREND WITH A COOLING TREND AS WELL.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TAF SITES MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION TO THE RULE WILL BE MAINLY RIVER VALLEY FOG
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WHILE THIS
WILL NOT AFFECT MOST TAF SITES...GIVEN SIMILAR PATTERN HAVE
INTRODUCED LOWER MVFR VIS SME...SJS...AND SYM WHICH HAD THE MOST
AFFECTS FROM FOG THIS MORNING. THERE IS ALSO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AS WE MOVE INTO AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY...BUT STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE WILL SEE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN
TAF SITES. THEREFORE WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME GIVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON KY

1038 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE BULK OF
ANY FOG AROUND THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TOWARD DAWN MONDAY SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO VALLEY FLOORS AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AS
SUCH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES SHOULD ALL REMAIN FREE OF FOG
THIS MORNING AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL PROBABLY
BE AT SME AND SYM WHERE SOME MVFR OR BRIEF IFR FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

715 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS THIS MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS JACKSON KY

350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE BULK OF
ANY FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO VALLEY FLOORS
AND NEAR BODIES OF WATER. AS SUCH...THE MAJORITY OF THE TAF SITES
SHOULD ALL REMAIN FREE OF FOG INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION
MAY BE SME AND SYM...BOTH WITH THE SMALLEST DEWPOINT DEPRESSION
CURRENTLY...WHERE A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG HAS BEEN FORECAST LATER
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...SOME IFR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY IN
THE DEEPER VALLEYS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

OVERALL...FEW CHANGES TO THE FCST THIS EVENING. FINE TUNED POPS/WX
SLIGHTLY...INCORPORATING A BLEND OF RECENT HRRR RUNS AND ARW
GUIDANCE...TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES BEFORE
MIDNIGHT FOLLOWED BY SLT CHC AFTER. SINCE ADJUSTMENTS ONLY AFFECT
THE COASTAL WATERS ZONES...WILL NOT UPDATE ZFP AS INLAND FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK. 24

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INLAND PAST THE SOUTHERN TAF
SITES WITH A LINE OF CU. THE SOUTHEAST WINDS AND CU WILL DISSIPATE
BY SUNSET WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON
TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW
MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING CONVECTION IS KARA...SO WILL PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR
THAT SITE.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING SCATTERED CU ABOUT THE
INLAND AREA. RADAR SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WELL OFFSHORE. SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGESTING OLD DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY NOW EDGING INLAND. ACCORDINGLY...A STRONG MOISTURE
GRADIENT IN PLACE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE MID 70S OVER ACADIANA...INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. LATEST HRRR
INDICATING BOUNDARY WILL PUNCH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
EVENING HOURS. HENCE...HOT AND HUMID WORDING WILL BE RETURNING TO
THE VOCABULARY FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WARM AND MUGGY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT.

OVERALL... MOISTURE PROFILES MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE DRY MID AND
UPPER LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES
IN THIS REGION BETWEEN AMPLIFYING WEST CONUS RIDGE...AND
PERSISTENT EAST CONUS TROF. THUS MAINTAINING NO MORE THAN LOW END
POPS AREA-WIDE.

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. 23

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 96 75 95 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 76 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 30
BPT 75 95 77 94 / 10 20 10 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

748 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CYC NW FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO DOMINATING THE UPR LKS. UPSTREAM 12Z
RAOBS AT INL/YPL SHOW SOME FAIRLY DEEP MSTR...WITH H85-7 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C. WITH LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW
AND H85 CAA /12Z H85 TEMPS WERE 11C AT GRB/APX BUT ONLY 3C AT
YPL/...BKN LO CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV NOTED ON WV IMAGERY PASSING OVER NE
LK SUP/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...BUT INTENSITY/
COVERAGE OF THESE HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SOME CAPPING AOA H7 AS SHOWN
ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB AND RUC ANALYSIS SNDGS FOR SITES IN THE CWA. THE
CAA AND CLD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPS BLO NORMAL.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS AND POPS.

TNGT...EXPECT ANY ONGOING SHOWERS EARLY TO TEND TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV TO THE NE. SOME OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW SLIDING SEWD THRU MANITOBA WL
ARRIVE DURING THE NGT AND RESULT IN MORE ISOLD SHOWERS. LINGERING
CYC FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST...CYC NW H85 FLOW WL MAINTAIN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE UPR 40S AT MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS H85
TEMPS DIP TO ARND 6C.

TUE...ALTHOUGH MOIST CYC H85 FLOW WL PERSIST...MODELS SHOW ARRIVAL
OF DNVA/FAIRLY SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING SHRTWV DOMINATING...WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN. SO ANY MRNG SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME
DESPITE THE DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY ENHANCE PCPN CHCS.
EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH LINGERING LO CLDS AND H85
TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE THAT WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE SCENTRAL...WITH MAINLY 60S CLOSER TO LK SUP.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATUES AND A FEW SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THIS WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN A
SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSES UPPER MI
SHOULD END BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INCREASED DRYING AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE. THE SFC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS A SFC
RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN CWA. WHILE
PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING...INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE 40S
GIVEN THE OVERALL COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL
COLDEST SPOTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR WEST.
HAVE STEERED CLEAR OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW AS ANOTHER WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT YET
ANOTHER SUBLTE TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA
COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FROM THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A WEAK LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE...AND A LAKE MI/GREEN BAY LAKE BREEZE THAT
SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET WILL INDUCE MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MOST AGRESSIVE. IT APPEARS ANY
NORTHERN CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO TRACK WELL EAST ACROSS THE CWA
AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI
AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
OCCUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK. SIMPLY PUT...THE
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. IN FACT...THE 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A STACKED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA AT 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LAGGING BEGIND A SFC
TROUGH JUST EAST OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM CANNOT
CHOSE WHICH OF THE OTHER TWO TO FOLLOW...WITH IT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF THU INTO FRI...AND THE GFS SAT INTO SUN. MOST OF THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE ECWMF LEAVING BEHIND THE SW EXTENT OF THURSDAYS TROUGH
IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
STILL HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR MOST DAYS UNTIL THINGS WORK
THEMSELVES OUT IN THE GUIDANCE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 748 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THIS FCST PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW
AROUND LOW PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FOR THE MOST PART AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...CIGS MAY DROP INTO
THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE LATE TONIGHT IN THE PRESENCE OF DIURNAL
COOLING. EVEN IF CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...DAYTIME HEATING
AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS BY MID/LATE MORNING TUE. WHILE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LAYER.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.

MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.

BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.

WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SOME SHRA AND PERHAPS A TS IN ADVANCE OF AN APRCHG COLD FNT WL
IMPACT MAINLY SAW THRU THIS AFTN. ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...VFR CONDITIONS SHUD
PREDOMINATE. FOLLOWING THE COLD FROPA/WSHFT TO THE NW AND ARRIVAL OF
DRIER LLVL AIR THIS AFTN...THE SHRA THREAT WL END...AND SKIES WL
TURN PCLDY. MORE LOWER CLDS WL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE TNGT OVER THE
KEWEENAW AND THEN EXPAND TO IWD/SAW WITH INCRSG LLVL MSTR. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD A -SHRA...VFR CONDITIONS WL BE THE RULE WITH A WELL
MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LYR. BEST CHC FOR A LOWER MVFR CIG WOULD BE AT
CMX WITH FVRBL UPSLOPE WIND COMPONENT.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TEMPS WILL BE BLO NORMAL THIS WEEK AS GREAT LAKES IS WITHIN DIRECT
INFLUENCE OF STRONG UPPER TROUGH CENTERED ON ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SPINNING OVER QUEBEC. BASED ON THE WV LOOP AND IR
SATELLITE LOOPS AND 00Z H5 RAOBS...STRONGEST SHORTWAVES AROUND THE
UPPER LOW CENTER ARE CURRENTLY WEST OF JAMES BAY...DROPPING OVER
NORTHEAST MANITOBA...AND ROTATING NORTHWEST ALONG EAST SHORE OF
HUDSON BAY. MODELS IN GENERAL SHOW THE INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL WAVES
FADING THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT THAT MAY OR MAY NOT OCCUR. ONLY SAY
THAT AS MODELS TYPICALLY DOWNPLAY STRENGTH OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING
AROUND A LARGE UPPER LOW THE FARTHER OUT IN TIME YOU ARE. SUPPOSE
THAT IF ONE OF THESE WAVES SLIDES ACROSS DURING THE PEAK HEATING OF
THE DAY MONDAY OR TUESDAY...WITH ALREADY COOL AIR ALOFT/HIGHER H925-
H7 RH IN PLACE...THERE WOULD BE AN UPTICK OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL OF TSRA. 00Z SOUNDING FM CYYQ
AT CHURCHILL MANITOBA SHOWED MOISTURE FM NEAR SFC THROUGH H7...SO
IDEA THAT MODELS ARE SHOWING FOR EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHER RH
THROUGH H7 SEEM ON TRACK. WENT AHEAD AND INCREASED POPS TO AT LEAST
CHANCE RANGE OVER INTERIOR CNTRL ON MONDAY AFTN AND TUESDAY AFTN.

SFC RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD FM CNTRL CANADA INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO INTO WEDNESDAY. LESS IN WAY OF
H85-H7 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER RH DURING THIS TIME AS WELL
SO SHOULD SEE MINIMAL CHANCES FOR ANY SHRA. A BIT MORE MESSY IN
PREDICTABILITY LATER THIS WEEK. 12Z ECMWF SHOWED ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
DROPPING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN SLOW TO LET GO NW FLOW ALOFT
ON EDGE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WHILE GFS CONTINUES TO TAKE
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER CA/NV AND BRINGS IT ACROSS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INTERESTING ENOUGH THE 00Z ECMWF IS
SIMILAR TO GFS...JUST NOT AS FAR NORTH WITH THAT SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED QPF. MEANWHILE...GEM-NH BRINGS SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN
PACIFIC OFFSHORE OF CA THIS MORNING AND TAKES IT SLOWLY OVER ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH ARRIVAL OVER UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. GIVEN ALL THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS WILL
STICK WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OFFERED UP BY A MODEL
CONSENSUS...MAINLY FOCUSED ALONG WI BORDER. SEEMS THAT THERE IS
BETTER AGREEMENT THAT BY FRIDAY EVENING...SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SFC LOW WILL BE SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER CNTRL CANADA BUILDS ACROSS INTO UPPER GREAT LAKES.

SINCE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTER FOCUSES OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND
QUEBEC NEXT WEEKEND...MAY SEE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE BREEZES TO HELP FORM
SHRA OR TSRA GIVEN ENOUGH DAYTIME HEATING/INSTABILITY. STILL LOOKING
LIKE VERY LOW CHANCE THOUGH.

OVERALL FOR THIS WEEK THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE BIGGER STORY.
WILL BE DEALING WITH CHILLY SUMMER AIRMASS FOR SURE AS H85 TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP TO 0-1C OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 12Z MONDAY. COOL
AIR MODERATES SOME BUT H85 TEMPS STILL FALL OFF TO AS LOW AS 3-5C
OVER UPR MICHIGAN BY TUESDAY AFTN. EXPECT HIGH TEMPS MONDAY TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...COOLEST NEAR LK SUPERIOR. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
WILL BE COOL EVERYWHERE. READINGS ALONG LK SUPERIOR MAY STAY BLO 60
DEGREES WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND. TEMPS INLAND AND
NEAR LK MICHIGAN WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 60S. ONLY SCNTRL FM IMT TO ESC
AND SOUTH TO MNM MAY SEE TEMPS CRACK 70 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE REFRESHING WITH 40S AND 50S. SEEMS TO
BE ENOUGH NORTHWEST GRADIENT WIND EVEN ON TUESDAY NIGHT TO KEEP LOWS
FM DROPPING BLO 40 DEGREES AND KEEPING FROST POTENTIAL TO A MINIMUM.
H85 TEMPS BEGIN TO BOUNCE BACK TO 5-8C ON WEDNEDAY AFTN...SUPPORTING
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA...THOUGH PROBABLY WILL BE
LOWER 70S FOR MOST WHICH IS STILL BLO NORMAL. TEMPS TO END THE WEEK
WILL REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF NORMAL. DESPITE MOST OF THE RAIN
STAYING SOUTH OF CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WIND BTWN HIGH OVER MANITOBA AND NORTHERN ONTARIO
AND TROUGHING IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPR 60S TO LOW 70S. A BIT OF
WARMING AT H85 BY NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD PUSH TEMPS AT LEAST INLAND FM
LK SUPERIOR BACK INTO THE MID 70S.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

146 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...

THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTH SHOULD CONGEAL AND DROP SOUTH THROUGH
AREA THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES. EXPECT A DECENT CHANCE OF A POCKETS OF SEVERE WEATHER
WITHIN THIS EXPECTED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY
PROGRESS FROM MBS AT 00Z-01Z TO THE I-94 TERMINALS BY 03Z-05Z AND
THEN EXIT SOUTH OF WHOLE AREA AFTER 06-07Z. OTHERWISE THAN PATCHY
LATE NIGHT FOG TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD...ONCE AGAIN...BE THE
RULE ONCE THE STORMY WEATHER ENDS TONIGHT.

FOR DTW...MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE
OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE AS CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TO OUR
NORTH HAS BEEN FAIRLY PREDICTABLE TO THIS POINT. SEVERAL CLUSTERS
OF STORMS CONTINUE TO PEEL EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ON
INTO THE UP AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW OF WARM
AND MOIST AIR PERSISTS AND A LARGE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF STORM COMPLEXES TO THE NORTH SETTLES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AND PROVIDES FOCUS FOR THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WHILE AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS FAR SOUTH
AS M 59 LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR.

IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKE THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACTUALLY OVERLAP WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY AS OPPOSED TO BEING A
MORE DISTINCT EPISODE. A CONTINUED FLOW OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD MAINTAIN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF THE CWA INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPING ACTIVITY ALONG APPROACHING
COLD FRONT THEN SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND WISCONSON DURING THE COURSE OF THE EVENING...WHICH
WILL ACT TO DRAG EXISTING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA.

NET RESULT WILL BE THE SAME AS STORM CHANCES INCREASE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID TO LATE EVENING. TIMING FOR
LARGEST THREAT OF STORMS FOR METRO DETROIT STILL APPEARS TO BE
MAINLY AFTER 10 PM AND PERHAPS CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT FOR MANY
LOCALES. WITH ANY LUCK...DECLINING INSTABILITY AT THIS LATER HOUR
WILL TAKE SOME PUNCH OUT OF THE LINE OF STORMS THAT EVENTUALLY
EVOLVES AND PROGRESSES INTO THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. THAT
SAID...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL PERSIST GIVEN THE STRONG
WIND FIELD AND AT LEAST A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AT THAT
POINT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

A REFINEMENT OF THOUGHTS AFTER PERUSING FRESH ARRIVING HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE, PARTICULARLY THE RAP, HRRR AND 00Z 3KM
EXPERIMENTAL NAM WHICH APPEAR TO BE SHEDDING SOME LIGHT ON THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING`S SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALTHOUGH OVERALL FORECAST
REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED, NEW INFORMATION IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN AREAS
ALONG THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHILE AREAS SOUTH OF
M59 REMAIN CAPPED THUS INHIBITING PREMATURE OVERTURNING.

IN ADDITION TO THE PRIMARY THREAT OF UPSCALE GROWTH OF CONVECTION
INTO AN ORGANIZED MCS, A FEW STORMS COULD ALSO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THIS LINE WITHIN THE CORRIDOR PRECEDING WARM ADVECTION. THIS
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND AN APPRECIABLE
RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY WITH WHICH TO WORK. THE OFT CONSERVATIVE
07Z RAP INDICATING 0-1KM MLCAPE APPROACHING 2500 J/KG IN MIDLAND/BAY
COUNTY BY 22Z. IN ADDITION, STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT
ELEVATED BULK SHEAR DURING THIS TIME THUS POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING A
FEW SUPERCELLS AS UPSTREAM CONVECTION ORGANIZES OVER WISCONSIN, LAKE
MICHIGAN, AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. GIVEN WELL MIXED/DEEP
BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/70MPH, IF RELATIVELY ISOLATED, WIND THREAT
MAY EXIST MAINLY INVOF THE SAGINAW VALLEY IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN
LINE AS EARLY AS 21/22Z. FOR THE SAME REASON, TORNADO THREAT WOULD
APPEAR LIMITED DUE TO HIGH LCLS. THOUGH THIS AFTN/EVENING`S
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL STILL BE CRITICAL, LATEST GUIDANCE DOES
SUPPORT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STRONGLY ENOUGH TO CONSIDER
ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR 70 MPH WIND GUSTS CONDITIONAL ON MCS
ORGANIZATION. WILL ALLOW TIME FOR UPDATED SPC DAY 1 AND FOR DAY CREW
TO EVALUATE LATEST TRENDS AND HIGH RES GUIDANCE BEFORE ELEVATING
WORDING IN THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS.

FINALLY, AS NOTED IN THE ORIGINAL MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE, A
LIMITED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT TRAVERSES
LAND ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF LATEST RAP RUNS
ARE ANY INDICATION, THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY EVOLVE A BIT
FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST YIELDING INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL AT LEAST OVER THE THUMB PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
18Z SHOULD UPSTREAM CONVECTION DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE WAA/STEEP
LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MN AND WI DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS AS A FAST-MOVING LEAD SHORTWAVE PROVIDES FORCING
WITHIN THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT BEING DRAWN EAST BY BROAD
CYCLONIC WNW FLOW. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL RACE EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOCUSING A CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION ACROSS PRIMARILY ACROSS
LAKE HURON AND NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL REMAIN LARGELY CAPPED THROUGH PEAK HEATING AS H85
TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE UPPER TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS
APPROACHING 90F. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY WEAKER CAPPING/BETTER FORCING
ACROSS THE NORTH WARRANT AT LEAST A HIGH CHC POP FROM THE SAGINAW
VALLEY INTO THE THUMB, INCREASING TO LIKELY BY LATE THIS AFTN. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CARRY AT LEAST A LOW END SEVERE RISK 18-00Z NORTH OF
THE I-69 CORRIDOR AS IT WILL RESIDE ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY MORE
STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW AND AS SURFACE TDS RISE INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 60S SUPPORTING MODERATE DESTABILIZATION. LATEST HRRR RUNS HAVE
A DEPICTION SIMILAR TO EXPECTATIONS, PARTICULARLY WRT TO EXPECTED
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. MEANWHILE 4KM SPC RUN APPEARS ENTIRELY TOO
GENEROUS WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION WITHIN STRONGLY CAPPED
AREAS.

SECOND AND POTENTIALLY GREATER SEVERE THREAT MAY EXIST TONIGHT,
LARGELY CONDITIONAL ON EXTENT OF PRECEDING AFTERNOON CONVECTION AND
QUALITY OF RECOVERY. DEVELOPING STRONG SWLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL CERTAINLY GIVE THE EXPECTED GENESIS AREA
OVER NORTHERN LOWER OR CENTRAL MI A DECENT SHOT AT RECOVERY BY 00Z.
BETWEEN 00-06Z, STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ELICITING A STRONG LLJ RESPONSE AND IMPRESSIVE MEAN WIND
THROUGH THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. ASSUMING THE ABSENCE OF STABILIZING
EFFECTS OF EARLIER ACTIVITY, CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG THE
INTENSIFYING SURFACE TROUGH WOULD HAVE POTENTIAL TO GROW UPSCALE AND
PROPAGATE INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY 0-1KM BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40KTS, H7-H5 LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5C/KM, AND 0-1KM
MLCAPE OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. THREAT WOULD THEN DIMINISH FROM TOWARD
THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS CONVECTION ENCOUNTERS COMBINATION OF
INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-LEVELS AND NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION.

LONG TERM...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS (EXTENDING FROM LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO) WILL BE IN PLACE ON MONDAY OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES...WITH COLD 500 MB TEMPS AROUND -14 C. THE MAIN
SURFACE COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOUTHERN MICHIGAN SHORTLY AFTER
12Z...AND SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT WITH SLOWLY
FALLING DEW PTS. HOWEVER...THERE STILL COULD BE JUST ENOUGH RESIDUAL
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TO GENERATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO POP
ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM...AS THERE IS
ALSO A SECONDARILY COLD FRONT WHICH LOOKS TO BE DROPPING SOUTH FROM
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING THE BETTER FOCUS. 850 MB TEMPS
STILL IN THE LOWER TEENS ON MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR MAXES AROUND 80
DEGREES...WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER SINGLE NUMBERS TO AROUND 10 C BY
TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MAXES HOLDING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.
A SPOKE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS FORECASTED TO SWING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN DURING TUESDAY..COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY COULD TOUCH OF A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF I-69...OTHERWISE
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST CONFLUENT FLOW/GENERAL SUBSIDENCE REGIME LOOKS
TO PERSIST AT LEAST INTO WEDNESDAY...SUPPORTING SLOWLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MICHIGAN...PROVIDING FAVORABLE RADIATING
NIGHTTIME CONDITIONS ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE LOW/MID
50S...WITH HIGHS STILL STUCK IN THE 70S FOR WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT...WITH 25 KNOT GUSTS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL NEARSHORE
WATERS...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE. COLD FRONT
ARRIVING TONIGHT LOOKS TO TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH COULD BE
SEVERE...PRODUCING WINDS OF 50 KNOTS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT DURING MONDAY. WIND SPEEDS MONDAY LOOK TO
BE GREATEST OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...WHERE THEY WILL REACH BETWEEN
15 TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS COOLER AIR
SETTLES OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAKE HURON DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

AVIATION.....DG
UPDATE.......DG
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1153 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STRENGTHENING SWLY WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 25 KTS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO AFTN IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD
FRONT. INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR TSTORMS TO
IMPACT MAINLY KMBS/KFNT THIS AFTERNOON WHILE REMAINING TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN HIGH BASED CU. MORE
SIGNIFICANT TSTORM EPISODE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z TONIGHT AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ORGANIZES AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM CARRYING AN ELEVATED
SEVERE THREAT...PARTICULARLY FOR NW AREAS. UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER IN
DETROIT AREA GIVEN EXPECTED TSTORM ARRIVAL WELL AFTER SUNSET AND
LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

FOR DTW...VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A TSTORM INVOF KDTW 18-00Z WITH
CAPPING EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WARRANTING REMOVAL OF PRIOR PROB30
GROUP. MOST PROBABLE TIME FOR TSTORMS WILL BE 03-06Z IN ADVANCE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.

UPDATE.......DG
AVIATION.....JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

633 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* LOW FOR TSTORMS THIS AFTN. MEDIUM AFTER 03Z TONIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPDATE...

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

AVIATION.....JVC
UPDATE.......JVC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

526 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LONG TERM...

MARINE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SW WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE SUN MORNING INTO SUN AFTERNOON DUE BOTH
TO DIURNAL MIXING AND A STRENGTHENING WSW GRADIENT IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AN INFLUX OF INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...TIMING OF WHICH
CARRIES A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS EARLY STAGE IN THE
FORECAST.

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH THIS EVENING
FOR MIZ049.

LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

UPDATE.......JVC
AVIATION.....SC
SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

252 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

.LONG TERM...

.MARINE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 1147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

FOR DTW...THE TWO MOST PROBABLE TIME PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORM
IMPACTING METRO WILL BE SUN AFTERNOON WITH THE INFLUX OF INSTABILITY
AND LATE SUN EVENING/NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM IN THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422-441>443.

LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.

MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.

SHORT TERM...JVC
LONG TERM....SF
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....SC

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

121 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.

TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.

SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.

A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.

THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL ALLOW VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE SHOULD BEGIN TO SPREAD
SHRA AND SOME TS INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH COVERAGE INCREASING
DURING THE MORNING. CONFIDENCE IN TS OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS REMAINS LOW ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PRECLUDE A MENTION.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY...BUT IF THERE IS ANY MDT/HVY
RAINFALL...MVFR AND PERHAPS EVEN IFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR FOR A
VERY BRIEF TIME. SHRA WILL END NW TO SE IN THE LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVENING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

229 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.

CVKING

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SPECIFICS FOR KUIN, KCOU: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE TERMINALS.
WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY JUST AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT, THEN
TURN NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS (17-21Z AT KCOU AND 10-14Z AT
KUIN). ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON,
HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTN AT KCOU INVOF THE
COLD FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
UNTIL A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AFTER 03/06Z. WINDS WILL SLOWLY
BECOME WESTERLY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY
TO NORTHERLY AFTER FROPA OCCURS BETWEEN 17-21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER PCPN CHANCES
ARE HIGHER TOMORROW AFTERNOON INVOF THE COLD FRONT.

KANOFSKY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 77 90 74 87 / 20 20 40 30
QUINCY 68 84 65 82 / 20 10 30 30
COLUMBIA 69 89 70 86 / 10 20 20 40
JEFFERSON CITY 71 91 71 87 / 10 20 20 30
SALEM 71 88 67 85 / 20 20 20 30
FARMINGTON 72 91 72 88 / 20 20 20 30

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1248 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
IOWA IN AN AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ON THE NOSE OF A
30KT LOW LEVEL JET. RAP SHOWS THAT THIS LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS GOING OVER THIS AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING HOURS.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. STILL EXPECT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE COLD FRONT IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-70. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH. CHANCES FOR STORMS
WILL INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS
OVER THE AREA AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT WILL REMAINED STALLED MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING
OVER THE STALLED FRONT DURING THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA BY SATURDAY PROVIDING A DRY DAY. WENT
WITH BELOW TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF EXPECTED CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.

BRITT

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

KANOFSKY

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

623 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

BRITT

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TSRA OVER N CENTRAL MO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SEWD. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED TO IMPACT UIN...BUT CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT AND WILL BE IN THE REGION. OTHERWISE, TSRA MAY ALSO
IMPACT UIN THIS EVENING AS A CDFNT APPROACHES THE REGION.
HOWEVER...TSRA SHUD DISSIPATE AS THEY APPROACH THE UIN REGION AND
WILL THEREFORE KEEP OUT OF TAF ATTM. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL BECOME
SWLY THIS MORNING AND WLY AS THE FNT APPROACHES.

LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOD TO SCT TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
OZARKS...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS THE STL/SUS/CPS REGION. CHANCES OF
DEVELOPMENT AND IMPACTING THESE TERMINALS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE TAF ATTM.

TILLY

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

501 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WENT WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS TODAY WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY MIXING DOWN THE 850MB TEMPERATURES.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 455 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

BRITT

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

STILL EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
OVER CENTRAL IOWA IN THE PREDAWN HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING. QUINCY
MAY BE ON SOUTHERN EDGE AND MAINTAINED A VC GROUP FOR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH CANNOT TOTALLY RULE OUT ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
LATE SUNDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW SO KEPT
REMAINING SITES DRY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP AND GUST
AT KCOU AND KUIN AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BUT WILL RELAX
A BIT WITH APPROACH OF NEXT COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE SUNDAY MORNING. NEXT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT BUT PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN
DO NOT LOOK TOO HIGH WITH IT AND PASSAGE OF SAID ACTUAL FRONT
LOOKS TO BE ACTUALLY ON MONDAY MORNING.

GOSSELIN

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

421 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS SOME QPF THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SCT TO ISOLD WITH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE.

TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE DAYS 2 AND 3 PERIOD INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SWD ADVANCING FRONT CURRENTLY WHICH
STALLS AND RETREATS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...UPPER
FORCING WANES AND TRANSITIONS EWD AND SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A RETURN TO STRONG SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUES THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL LOCATION. THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MAXIMIZE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT. SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS ONLY
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BRING
ADDITONIAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BETTER LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
THAN OF LATE.

FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL
FLATTEN THE TRANSITORY CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LEADING TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH QUICKER MOVING SUBTLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORT WAVES/ HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES...AND GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

WEAK ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS THE HEART OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME MID LEVEL CU AND EVEN A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECTED THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE SOUTH. ALL THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KVTN WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FURTHER
SOUTH...IMPACTING SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...INCLUDING KLBF...WILL BE
ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIRECT IMPACT AT THE KLBF
TERMINAL DIFFICULT TO PIN POINT AND WILL CONTINUE THE VCTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND AMEND IF A STORM APPEARS TO MOVE OVER THE
TERMINAL. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE STORMS SHOULD BE EXITING/DIMINISHING.
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...MASEK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1218 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BUMPED UP DEWPOINTS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ALONG/SOUTH OF
I80...ESPECIALLY IN KNOWN AREAS WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED. THIS RESULTS IN HEAT INDEX VALUES 100-104 IN SOME SPOTS
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG/SOUTH OF I80. HAVE ADDED MENTION TO THE HWO
FOR NOW.

COLD FRONT IS A LITTLE SLOWER TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. HIRES
MODEL SUITES OF HRRR/NMM/ARW CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY 19-21Z...PERHAPS IN THE PLATTE RIVER
VALLEY. EXTREME INSTABILITY HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED WITH SPC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING AROUND 4000 J/KG OF CAPE. WIND SHEAR WILL
ALSO BE IN THE 30 KNOT RANGE...WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME
LARGE HAIL IF STORMS DEVELOP. BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR MICROBURSTS TOO WITH
DOWNDRAFT CAPES PUSHING 1700-1900. WILL MAINTAIN A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR NOW UNTIL WE SEE DEVELOPMENT.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN OFF AND
ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POPPED UP EARLY THIS MORNING JUST AHEAD OF
MID LEVEL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
SOUTHWEST IOWA AS PER WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS. THIS WAVE WILL
TRACK EAST OF OUR CWA EARLY IN THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...WITH SUBSIDENCE
BEHIND WAVE KEEPING MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MORNING DRY.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES IS FORECAST TO SWEEP SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY...WITH SURFACE
REFLECTION IN THE FORM OF A FRONT/WIND SHIFT SETTLING INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE DEW POINTS NEAR OR ABOVE 70F AHEAD
OF THIS BOUNDARY ARE EXPECTED TO POOL IN EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
WESTERN IOWA DURING PEAK HEATING. CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY SHOULD
BE ENOUGH TO GET AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FIRING IN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPES OVER 2500 J/KG. MEANWHILE
MODERATE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP GENERATE NEAR 40KT OF BULK SHEAR
WITH VECTORS NORMAL TO SURFACE CONVERGENCE...SUGGESTING DISCRETE AND
ROTATING STORMS ARE LIKELY...SUPPORTING HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL.
ONLY MARGINAL RISK IN SPC OUTLOOK...AND CAN NOT ARGUE GIVEN
EXPECTED SCANT COVERAGE. INITIATION LOOKS TO BE FARTHER NORTH THAN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH LATER ARRIVAL OF FRONT...MOSTLY LIKELY
FIRING NEAR OR SOUTH OF A WAYNE TO ALBION LINE BETWEEN 3 AND 4 PM.
EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS TO PROGRESS SOUTH THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BEFORE EXITING SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WHEN LAST OF 850 MOISTURE PLUME FINALLY DROPS SOUTH.

AHEAD OF FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE 90S
ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER FROM MORNING CONVECTION DISSIPATES AS
EXPECTED. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME HEAT INDICES TOPPING 100 FOR A COUPLE
OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.

SHOULD SEE A DRY PERIOD AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT LOWERING
PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL DRAW 850 MOISTURE BACK NORTH
RATHER QUICKLY BY LATER MONDAY MORNING AS NORTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES. WILL KEEP OUR SMALL POPS FOR OUR WESTERN CWA DURING THAT
TIME PERIOD...WITH CHANCES/COVERAGE GRADUALLY INCREASING MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY AS MAGNITUDE OF
MOISTURE RETURN INCREASES. WILL MAINTAIN 30 TO 50 PERCENT STORM
CHANCES DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MINIMAL THEN
AS INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK DUE TO MUCH COOLER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH OCCASIONAL RAIN/STORM CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN FROM TEXAS WEST TO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AT
LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY...KEEPING STORM TRACK ROLLING FROM THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES COULD
TRIGGER CONVECTION AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME...WITH MORE POTENT WAVES
MOVING THROUGH OUR AREA WEDNESDAY DURING THE DAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT AS PER ECMWF/GFS. WE SHOULD REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM...SO INSTABILITY PROGS SUGGEST SEVERE
CHANCE WILL BE MINIMAL OVERALL WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE
70S AND 80S MUCH OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP BY
19-21Z. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE KOFK TAF
SITE...BUT COULD AFFECT KLNK/KOMA 23-01Z TIME FRAME. BECAUSE OF
LOW CERTAINTY ON DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP OUT OF THE TAF FOR
NOW...BUT WILL UPDATE FORECAST IF STORMS INDEED DEVELOP AND WOULD
AFFECT THOSE TAF SITES. WIND SHIFT WILL ALSO BE AFFECTING
KOMA/KLNK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST BY 23-01Z AS WELL.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DEWALD
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...DEWALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

621 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN OFF AND
ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE NORTH TODAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. A FEW STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN
EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF STORMS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...SO
OPTED TO CONTINUE TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THIS ISSUANCE.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...KG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY...THEN OFF AND
ON STORM CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS THINKING. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE
THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY CEILINGS EXPECTED TO BE
ABOVE 8000 FEET. BEST CHANCE OF TSRA WOULD BE WITH WIND SHIFT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

215 AM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE LOCAL REGION.
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA WILL RECEIVE RAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. CONVECTION WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK THEN EXPECT DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LONGWAVE PATTERN FEATURES
RIDGING FROM NEW MEXICO TO WASHINGTON...WITH A PLUME OF MOISTURE
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN. THERE IS A WEAK VORTEX EMBEDDED IN THE
H5 FLOW...WHICH WILL ENABLE CONVECTION TO FLARE UP. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE FOR ELKO AT 21Z IS 82F...WITH PWS CLIMBING ABOVE .75 OF
AN INCH. THE VORTEX IS MOVING AT A GLACIAL PACE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO BE THE MAIN EVENT WITH THIS MONSOON EPISODE. SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY`S RUNS...THE NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH DEPICT MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR IMPACTING THE LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE
NAM BEING A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF. THIS DISTURBANCE HAS
MULTIPLE IMPULSES ROTATING ABOUT...AND THE MODELS SHOW TWO
DISTINCT AREAS OF ACTIVITY...ONE PUSHING UP THROUGH CENTRAL
NV...AND THE OTHER IMPACTING WESTERN NV. FOR THE POPS THIS PACKAGE
...USED AN ALL BLEND WITH TERRAIN ENHANCEMENT. AS TIME ELAPSES
THIS PERTURBATION WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD...SHIFTING THE QPF
FOCUS TO THE NORTHERN ZONES NEAR THE IDAHO BORDER ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY. MODELS AGREE WELL ON
LARGE PICTURE OF SOUTHWEST RIDGE FLATTENING AND DRIFTING EAST AS
PACIFIC LOW MOVES INTO COAST. THIS COMBO PRODUCED A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WITH SPOTTY MOISTURE. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. TOOK OUT ONE PERIOD OF SHOWERS ONLY AND LEFT ALL
POTENTIAL CONVECTION AS -TRW. AIRMASS DRIES AS WEEK PROGRESSES SO
POPS AND THUNDER COVERAGE LOWER EACH PERIOD UNTIL LATE WHEN MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AGAIN AND SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE AGAIN. WARMING
TREND WILL BE GENERAL AFTER A SLIGHT COOLING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION. IT IS THE DOG DAYS...AFTER ALL.

.AVIATION...INCREASING SOUTHERLY MOISTURE WILL START A FEW VCSH
AROUND KTPH AND KELY. BY LATE MORNING...EXPECTING VCTS AT ALL SITES
WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. KWMC HAS A FEW ODD WIND SHIFTS LIKELY
RELATED TO LOCAL VIRGA WHICH ARE STIRRING UP DUST (HZ) AND SO HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO LOWER VISBY THIS MORNING. AS THE AFTERNOON
WARMS...THIS SHOULD IMPROVE. STORMS/SHOWERS PERSIST INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE WANING. A FEW SHOWERS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA
COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY.

.FIRE WEATHER...THE NAM PLACES THE BEST LI`S SQUARELY OVER 454
THIS MORNING AND THEN SHIFTING TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE GENERAL PATTERN...THE
OVERALL CONFIDENCE HAS TO BE TEMPERED WITH THE LACK OF AGREEMENT
IN THE SMALL DETAILS. GENERALLY EXPECTING A CONVECTIVE PATTERN
TODAY...WETTING RAINS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON MONDAY.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

97/98/98/97

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1146 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TS/SHRA
PERSISTING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL NM FROM THE
CONTDVD TO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THIS SHOULD IMPACT MAINLY THE
MIDDLE AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT COULD TRACK NORTHWARD TO
AROUND SANTA FE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SCT TO NMRS TS/SHRA IS PROGGED
TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH
LOWEST PROBABILITIES AT KROW AND HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT
KGUP...KFMN...KSAF AND KLVS.

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.UPDATE...
HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS ENDING ACROSS N/C NEW MEXICO. MAINLY
STRATIFORM TYPE OF EVENT WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION DURING THE REST
OF THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN BAND ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
NM SHOULD SHIFT NORTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH MAY JUST
DIE OUT OVER CENTRAL AREAS. UPDATED POPS AND ENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH.

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.

.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.

GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.

THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.

EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1118 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. OTHERWISE
IT WILL BECOME COOLER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VORT MAX WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING OUR REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY SPARK SOME
SPARSE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT RADAR/MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE STEADIEST SHOWERS FELL EARLIER
TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MORE SUBTLE SECONDARY BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INTO THE
REGION ON TUESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. 00Z NAM AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS A SUBTLE WAVE
CROSSES WITH THE FRONT. THIS WAVE WILL EXIT...BUT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING EXPECT ANOTHER BATCH OF
STEADIER SHOWERS TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE
SURFACE CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY. THIS SAID...WITH A CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...IT IS DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT
AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AT ANY LOCATION. HIGHS WILL BE
NOTABLY COOLER...ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN MOST AREAS.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...A LOBE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL -1SD TO -2SD 850MB AIR
WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY LEVELS OVER LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
500MB VORT MAX.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDWEEK...RESULTING
IN A COOL AND UNSETTLED START TO THE PERIOD. THE COMBINATION OF DPVA
AND COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL MAKE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING THE MOST UNSETTLED PART OF THE PERIOD.
IN FACT...WITH 850MB TEMPS FALLING TO +8C TO +10C AND CYCLONIC
WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
WE COULD SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS DOWNSTREAM
OF LAKE ERIE...AND TO A GREATER EXTENT EAST OF OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE
LONGER FETCH SHOULD COMPENSATE FOR THE LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE.

AS ELUDED TO ABOVE...AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE WILL BE ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE DEEPER SYNOPTIC MOISTURE...HENCE THE LOWER
POPS ACROSS WESTERN NY. HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT A STRONG
VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO BE CROSSING THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...AND
THIS WILL YIELD AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.
NONETHELESS...EVEN WHERE WE DON`T SEE LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS...WE WILL
LIKELY SEE AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUD COVER. THE COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE TROUGH WILL YIELD LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT FOR IMMEDIATELY ALONG
THE LAKE WHERE TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60.

ANY LINGERING SHOWERS SHOULD TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN
VORT MAX MOVES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND DIURNAL HEATING DISRUPTS ANY
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. HOWEVER WE MAY SEE A RESURGENCE OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL STILL BE OVERHEAD THE NORTH
COUNTRY AND EASTERN NEW YORK WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUDINESS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH SEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES FEATURING HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.

THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S EXCEPT IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE LAKESHORES
WHERE LOWS RUN CLOSE TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK. UNLIKE TUESDAY
NIGHT...LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE OWING TO
INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT AND NOMINALLY STRONGER SHEAR.
HOWEVER...WE MAY SEE A FEW AREAS OF LAKE-INDUCED CLOUDINESS LINGER
EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AS THE BACK EDGE OF THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GIVES WAY TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE QUESTION MARK IS A
STORM SYSTEM PROGGED TO CROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE SOUTHERN TIER DEPENDING ON HOW FAR NORTH IT
DRIFTS...HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE TIME
BEING. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT TEMPERATURE ADVECTION GOING
ON...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN CLOSE TO WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT`S
READINGS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN ITS POSITION OVER EASTERN CANADA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING ALONG THE U.S.
CANADIAN BORDER WILL LIKELY RE-AMPLIFY THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. WHILE THERE ARE CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES ON THE DETAILS IN
THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SCENARIO...THIS GENERAL TREND SUGGESTS THAT WE
WILL SEE AT LEAST A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
THAT WILL CONTINUE TO RUN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF AVERAGE.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS TO REMAIN VFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FIRST OF TWO
COLD FRONTS DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF VSBY
RESTRICTIONS. PERHAPS THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FOG WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH
MAY IMPACT JHW. FOG CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE...BUT
THE CHANCE IS SMALL.

THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING AND
GRADUALLY ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND SOME SHOWERS WHICH WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
TO BE DROPPED. A FALL LIKE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND
COLD FRONT COULD SET THE STAGE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ONTARIO
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP
CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS AND LAKE-850 DELTA-TS OF AROUND 15C WHICH
FIT THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LOW
WATERSPOUTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN ADDED INTO THE FORECAST OVER
THE LAKES.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

1037 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VORT MAX WILL PIVOT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED IN
CENTRAL CANADA. THIS WILL PUSH A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS ACROSS OUR
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING OUR REGION
EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH THE BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY SPARK SOME
SPARSE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...BUT RADAR/MODEL TRENDS SUPPORT A MAINLY
DRY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALLOW PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID-50S TO LOWER 60S.

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS EVENING AS THE FIRST OF
TWO COLD FRONTS DROPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. AREAL COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE SPARSE WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE FOR BRIEF
VSBY RESTRICTIONS. PERHAPS THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR AVIATION IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP TONIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT FOG WILL BE
MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...WHICH
MAY IMPACT JHW. FOG CANNOT COMPLETELY BE RULED OUT ELSEWHERE...BUT
THE CHANCE IS SMALL.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...APFFEL
NEAR TERM...APFFEL
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...APFFEL
MARINE...APFFEL/SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

1257 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1250 PM SUNDAY...SEA BREEZE SLOWLY WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND A COUPLE OF SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY.
PER LATEST HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE WRF...THINK PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ISOLATED THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
WILL KEEP ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP OVER MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF
OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 90S IN MANY SPOTS
AND CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...BOTH MODELS INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO BROAD UPPER TROF ALONG EASTERN SEABOARD SHARPENING UP.
WILL NUDGE POPS A BIT FURTHER NORTH AND INCREASE TO CHANCE SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM OREGON INLET TO MOREHEAD CITY.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...GFS/ECMWF TRENDING A BIT WETTER COAST MON INTO
MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF WEAK LOW LIFTING NE ALONG
REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FOR NOW KEPT POPS IN CHC RANGE CST BUT
IF CURRENT MDL TRENDS CONT THEY MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IN LATER
FCSTS. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MAINLY DRY AS BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG
THE CST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO 80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE
MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FOR NOW FCST DEWPTS KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW
105 BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVRY. MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORN AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

CHANCE OF SHRA AND TSRA INCREASE LATE WEEK AS UPR TRF DEVELOPS TO
THE W WITH WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW THU AND STALLING
NEAR THE AREA FRI INTO SAT. HAVE CHC POPS THRU THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE A S HOT WITH MAINLY UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S.

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AVIATION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS ONLY THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG
OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS
SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND
LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF
SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS
MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...WINDS STARTING TO PROCESS OF VEERING AROUND
TO THE SE/S AT THE BUOY SITES AND ON THE SOUNDS. WINDS SPEEDS ARE
UNIFORMLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE WITH
A BIT OF SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. WINDS
BECOME MORE S/SW TONIGHT WITH SOME INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS BY MORNING.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE MON AS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG FRONT/TRF INLAND TIGHTENING GRDNT. WINDS SHLD REACH 15 TO 20
KTS MOST WTRS MON AFTN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 6 FEET HIGHEST
OUTER CNTRL AND SRN WTRS. SSW WINDS THEN EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS
REST OF THE FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH OFFSHORE.
THESE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S
WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC
MARINE...RF/CTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC

949 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM SUNDAY...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROP TO 1.29 INCHES WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN
DRY...THE HIGH-RESOLUTION HRRR AND ENSEMBLE WRF FROM NCAR SHOWING
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE
MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. COVERAGE WILL BE VERY LIMITED AND WILL
CONTINUE WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. QUITE WARM INLAND WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE PUSHING TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S WITH
UPPER 80S COASTAL AREAS.

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SUN...THE MIXTURE OF CIGS/VSBYS WILL BECOME ALL VFR IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING
BEGINS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON VEER TO SOUTH
TONIGHT. ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND
OAJ...DRY ELSEWHERE. PATCHY IFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN
PREDAWN HOURS MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MON THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUN...DECENT CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA NEAR CST MON INTO MON
NIGHT BUT BEST BET FOR REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE MAINLY E OF
TERMINALS ESPCLY ISO/PGV WITH POSS SOME MVFR OAJ/EWN. MAINLY VFR
TUE AND WED WITH LIMITED PRECIP AND LOW LVL SW FLOW LIMITING
FOG/ST THREAT. COULD SEE BETTER CVRG OF SHRA AND TSRA THU AHEAD OF
NEXT FRONT WITH BRIEF SUB VFR POSS MAINLY IN THE AFTN.

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 950 AM SUNDAY...LIGHT W/NW WINDS ON ALL THE WATERS THIS
MORNING WITH ONLY DIAMOND BUOY GUSTING ABOVE 10 KNOTS. SEAS ARE 1
TO 3 FEET...WITH SOME LONG PERIOD SWELL OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY LATE TODAY.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/HSA
MARINE...RF/CTC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

145 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS...
PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST. THE
FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE ON MONDAY. BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE WILL BUILD WESTWARD THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW A THIN LAYER OF UNSTABLE AIR AT THE TOP OF TODAY`S DEEP
MIXED LAYER ACROSS THE PEE DEE REGION. THIS IS NOT A SITUATION I
WOULD HAVE ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN GIVEN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AGL AND BONE-DRY AIR AT AND
ABOVE 700 MB. NEVERTHELESS THERE ARE SHOWERS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM FLORENCE NORTHWARD TO
NEAR BINGHAM IN WESTERN DILLON COUNTY. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS
ADDITIONAL MID- LEVEL CLOUD COVER EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO ROBESON
COUNTY NC...SO I HAVE TO AT LEAST CONSIDER THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP THIS FAR NORTH AS WELL.

AT THE SURFACE HIGHER DEWPOINTS HAVE RETURNED WESTWARD INTO THE
INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN WITH 70S SHOWING UP AGAIN IN LUMBERTON...
MARION AND FLORENCE. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE TOO THIN TO BE FEEDING
THE CONVECTION DIRECTLY...AS THE SURFACE IS LIKELY DECOUPLED FROM
THE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

LATEST HRRR MODEL RUNS DO NOT REALLY SHOW THIS CURRENT ACTIVITY
WELL...ALTHOUGH INTERESTINGLY THE 00Z NAM DOES. THE NAM MOVES THE
SHOWERS EASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST...DISSIPATING THE CONVECTION
BETWEEN 06-09Z NEAR MYRTLE BEACH.

AT 500 MB THE CAROLINAS FORM THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN FROM HUDSON BAY CANADA. PLENTY OF DRY AIR AT AND ABOVE 700 MB
SHOULD CONTINUE ON WESTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL NUDGE OUR FRONT OFF THE COAST INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS BY DAYBREAK. MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN THE
DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED OVERNIGHT...AND WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING I ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG WILL
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHEST.
LOWS SHOULD FALL 70-74...WARMEST AT THE BEACHES.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN IN AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING IN PLACE ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD...FLAT-ISH H5 TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED IN PLACE OVER
EASTERN CONUS. GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING PLENTIFUL DRY AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTION DESPITE PRESENCE OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE OCCASIONAL SHORT WAVE THAT WILL DROP INTO THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. AIR ALOFT IS DRIEST INLAND...SO WILL
SHOW A DECREASING GRADIENT IN POPS NW FROM THE COAST FOR BOTH
DAYS. DUE TO OVERALL LIMITED MOISTURE ALOFT...WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED AT LOW CHANCE FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST FOR BOTH DAYS...WITH
FAR INLAND AREAS BEING POSSIBLY TOO DRY TO SEE ANY SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AND
HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY REACH AROUND A 100 OR SO BOTH
AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE EXCEEDED.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WHAT LITTLE MOISTURE THERE WILL BE IN
PLACE ON TUESDAY WILL BE POOLED UP ALONG THE COAST. MINOR RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED THERE DURING AN OTHERWISE HOT AFTERNOON
PROVIDED IN PART BY A VERY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
SLOW ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STAYS WEAK THOUGH THE SENSE OF
RIDGING WEAKENS. SO WILL KEEP POPS MINIMIZED BUT SHOW THEM AREA-
WIDE. RAIN CHANCES RAMP UP TO SCATTERED ON THURSDAY AS SOME WEAKLY
CYCLONIC CURVATURE OVERSPREADS THE REGION AND A SURFACE PIEDMONT
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE. ANOTHER LITTLE PIECE OF ENERGY WILL PROVIDE
SOME LIFT ON FRIDAY WHICH MAY BE ANOTHER FAIRLY ACTIVE DAY. ON
SATURDAY NOT ONLY WILL THERE BE CONTINUED DISTURBANCES IMPINGING
UPON THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE
MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BOTH SEE
RATHER HOT AFTERNOONS WHEREAS THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE
PERIOD SHOULD TEMPER THINGS A BIT BACK TOWARDS CLIMO.

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...EARLIER CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE CWA AND
SKIES HAVE TRENDED CLEAR FOR THE MOST PART. WITH SUFFICIENT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INVERSION AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INLAND TERMINALS WITH MVFR VSBY BETWEEN
09-12Z. MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR TODAY WILL BE THE STATIONARY
FRONT/SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS
ACROSS THE COASTAL TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. WILL KEEP VFR
AT ALL THE TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY/
CEILING IF CONVECTION OCCURS DIRECTLY OVER KILM/KCRE/KMYR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SATURDAY...A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OHIO WILL
DRIFT EAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD
NUDGE THE FRONT EASTWARD AND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING AS HIGH AS 15 KNOTS IN THE CAPE
FEAR AREA SHOULD DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN TURN NORTHWESTERLY LATE AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF
THE COAST.

THE PRIMARY WAVE SET IS A 7-SECOND SOUTHERLY SWELL...WITH A
SMALLER 10-SECOND SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL SHOWING UP. THESE TWO WAVES
WILL CONTINUE INDEPENDENT OF THE WIND OVERNIGHT...WITH COMBINED
SEAS 2-4 FEET...HIGHEST OFFSHORE FROM CAPE FEAR.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...A STALLED FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
EXTENDS BACK WEST ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO A
SWLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND
DISSIPATES. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED MONDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE WATERS.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SATURDAY...WIND AND SEAS RELAX ON TUESDAY AS
PIEDMONT TROUGHINESS PUSHES THE TIGHTER GRADIENT CAUSED BY THE
BERMUDA HIGH FURTHER OUT TO SEA. THOUGH SOME SWELL ENERGY MAY
REMAIN WE SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. THEREAFTER IT
LOOKS LIKE PRETTY STANDARD FARE FOR JULY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS...HIGHEST OFFSHORE.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 200 AM SATURDAY...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NIGHT-TIME HIGH TIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE
HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES ARE THE RESULT OF THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDE AND A FULL MOON WHICH OCCURRED ON FRIDAY. DEPARTURES OF PLUS
1/2 TO 1 FOOT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING. THE RISK IS HIGHEST FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
CAPE FEAR RIVER TO INCLUDE DOWNTOWN WILMINGTON...WITH A LIKELY
PROBABILITY. THE BEACHES WILL APPROACH THE THRESHOLD FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AGAIN THIS EVE...BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST TIME
THIS LUNAR CYCLE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC/RJD
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1204 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 23Z...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
BETWEEN THE INLAND AND COASTAL TERMINALS. CONVECTION FIRED UP
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAINLY NEAR AND OVER KILM THIS AFTERNOON.
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THE TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION AND WITH LIGHT WINDS ALSO EXPECTED
CANNOT RULE OUT MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY KILM. WILL MAKE MENTION AFTER 08Z IN ALL
TERMINALS FOR FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS. VFR TO RETURN AFTER 12Z AND
SUNDAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIKE TODAY WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND THE CHANCE OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY. WILL KEEP VFR IN ALL
TERMINALS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A BRIEF MVFR IN VSBY/CEILING IF
CONVECTION OCCURS OVER A TERMINAL.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...TRA
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MAC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...RJD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1222 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED MOVING SOUTH OUT OF
MANITOBA INTO NORTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THIS
CONVECTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL VORT ENERGY IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THAT AREA...ALONG WITH A
SURFACE FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE CONVECTION WAS AS FAR WEST AS BOTTINEAU COUNTY...AND HAVE
INCREASED COVERAGE OF SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE MORE
ISOLATED NATURE OF THE CELLS ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. BULK SHEAR IS STILL QUITE HIGH...WITH THE BEST MIXED
LAYER CAPE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. EXPECT RAIN SHOWERS/THUNDER TO
SKIM THE BOTTINEAU/TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA...AND INTO RUGBY/TOWNER -
MAINLY EAST OF MINOT. SHORT TERM MODELS DIFFER ON HOW LONG
CONVECTION WILL LINGER...BUT ALL AGREE ON ACTIVITY REMAINING UNTIL
AROUND 09Z (4 AM CDT). THUS HAVE A MENTION OF ISOLATED STORMS UNTIL
THEN. WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER TO SEE WHICH OF THE MODELS HANDLED
CONVECTION THE BEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 853 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

CONVECTION THREAT HAS ENDED OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN IS BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER
BOTTINEAU COUNTY OVER THE PAST HOUR. ML CAPES AROUND 1000-1500
J/KG WITH 50-60 KNOTS OF BULK SHEAR REMAIN OVER THE FAR NORTH
CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND A FEW MORE STORMS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WILL BE MINIMAL...AND WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. THIS IS CURRENTLY COVERED IN THE GOING FORECAST.

WE DID BUMP UP WINDS OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL THIS EVENING
A NICE FALL-RISE PRESSURE BUBBLE WAS NOTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SOME
40 MPH WIND GUSTS WERE REPORTED OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST WITH THE 8
PM OBSERVATIONS. THE COUPLET WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. BUT AS WINDS DECOUPLE THIS EVENING WITH THE
SETTING SUN...THE STRONGER GUST POTENTIAL WILL ALSO SUBSIDE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CIN TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE REMAINS HIGH BUT SHEAR IS DECREASING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER THROUGH 7 PM AS A FEW CU REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF DICKEY/LAMOURE COUNTIES.

TO THE NORTHWEST...A LINE OF CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIED DEWPOINTS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. COULD STILL BE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HERE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS COVERED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1920 UTC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN JAMESTOWN...STEELE AND EDGELEY.
THE 13-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE ALL DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HAVE THUS ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GRAND FORKS CWA BY 00 UTC.

LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY...UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN A CLOSED MID LEVEL CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S).

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT 05Z A COLD
FRONT EXTENDED FROM BETWEEN KDIK/KISN TO BETWEEN KMOT/KN60 TO NEAR
GRAND FORKS. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING...REACHING THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER BY/BEFORE SUNRISE.
NORTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KNOTS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD LOWER TO
BELOW 10 KNOTS WITHIN AN HOUR OR TWO OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT EXTENDED FROM LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS FAR WEST AS BOTTINEAU. EXPECT THESE CONVECTIVE
CELLS TO REMAIN EAST OF MINOT. WILL NOT MENTION IN KJMS JUST YET AS
EXPECT CONVECTION TO BE EAST OF KJMS AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

AFTER 15Z/16Z NORTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AS SURFACE WINDS LINK TO
THE MIXING WINDS ALOFT.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

QUICK UPDATE... THUNDERSTORM CELLS DROPPING FROM MANITOBA INTO
FAR NORTHEAST ND AND FAR NORTHWEST MN AT THIS TIME... WITH LARGE
HAIL INDICATED IN CELLS FROM HUMBOLDT...ACROSS CARIBOU INTO THE
LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO PERSIST A BIT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT AS THEY PUSH FURTHER EAST-SOUTHEAST. SOME STRONG
TSTM OUTFLOW IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS... AS 0-6KM SHEAR
APPROACHES 50KTS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).

NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...GUST
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...GUST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

829 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...

RELATIVELY STABLE AIR DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY CAPPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED OVER SWRN PA WHERE
THE MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 6 PM. THE HRRR TRACKS
THESE STORMS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE
KEEPING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE IT BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER WE LOSE THE SOLAR
HEATING.

ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING
NIGHTFALL.

LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID
60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.

MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING/DISSIPATING
AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. THE SPARSE COVERAGE PRECLUDED
MENTION IN TERMINALS AND WILL AMD AS NECESSARY. JST/AOO SHOULD SEE
THE GREATEST RISK FOR TSTM IMPACTS GIVEN EVOLVING STORMS UPSTREAM
OVER PIT/BTP VCNTY MOVG ESEWD. THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVN CONCERN IS
IFR FOG OR LOW CIGS DEVELOPING DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS. GUIDANCE
SEEMS TO FAVOR WRN TAFS GIVEN COMBO OF WEAK UPSLOPE WLY FLOW AND
NARROWING DEWPT DEPRESSIONS. ANY RAINFALL WILL ALSO AID IN POTNL
REDUCED CONDS BY PROVIDING ADDNL LLVL MSTR. CONFIDENCE IN
RESTRICTIONS AFT 06Z IS LOW ATTM BUT SOMETHING TO BE AWARE OF FOR
THE 06Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE. FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR MAINLY VFR WITH
SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 16-22Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1059 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THEN MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND STALLS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 AM EDT SUNDAY...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A BIT LOWER THAN
FORECAST SO HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. OTHER GRIDS IN
GOOD SHAPE FOR THE MOST PART. HRRR AND OTHER HIRES GUIDANCE DO STILL
WANT TO DEVELOP SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
DESPITE THE DRY DEWPOINTS...BUT ENOUGH LAPSE RATE ALOFT FOR SOME
MINIMAL CAPE VALUES...SO HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON.

1045 UTC UPDATED...SKY COVER HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT FOR CIRRUS
CROSSING THE INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR AND MOVING INTO SW SN AND NE GA.
WINDS WERE UPDATED FROM THE LATEST NAM GUIDANCE.

AT 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN
USA TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHILE A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EAST.
WEAK...CHANNELED SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER VA TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN NEAR THE COASTS OF NC...SC AND GA. THE BULK OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...AS
WILL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
OUR AREA HOWEVER...AND FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 205 AM SUNDAY...EXPECT ANOTHER QUITE DAY MONDAY BEFORE A
PATTERN CHANGE AND A RETURN THE MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM
REGIME. AN UPPER TROF WILL BE OVER THE ERN US WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SFC. EXPECT THE DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT ONCE
AGAIN INTO THE 50S MOST PLACES...KEEPING INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM.
THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING OVER THE GULF AND
MOVING NE NEAR THE ATLANTIC COAST ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
HOWEVER...MOST MDLS KEEP THE LOW SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH
MINIMAL EFFECT OVER THE CWFA. THEREFORE...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO LIFT TUE WITH A WLY FLOW DEVELOPING. AT THE
SFC...A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM SAGS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. A
MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS BRINGING INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT...BUT ONLY TO AROUND 60. THIS WILL BRING AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
STILL...COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED...AND MAINLY OVER
NC. TEMPS WILL RISE A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM MON.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SUNDAY...THE PATTERN CHANGE IS FULLY UNDERWAY AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BRINGS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE AREA THRU THU. STRONGER SHORT WAVES MOVE IN
BEGINNING FRI BRINGING A RETURN TO THE UPPER TROF TO THE EASTERN
CONUS. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU ON SAT REINFORCING THE TROF. AT
THE SFC...A WEAK COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH AND STALLS ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SHORTWAVES HELP DEVELOP A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WHICH
THEN MOVE ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE AREA THRU FRI. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION. THAT SAID...
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THRU THE NITE AS THE CWFA WILL BE IN THE
PATH OF ANY POTENTIAL MCS ACTIVITY. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE CENTER
DEVELOPS ON SAT AND MOVES EAST OF THE AREA POSSIBLY DRAGGING THE
FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
LINGER...KEEPING THE CHC OF CONVECTION IN PLACE...ALTHOUGH WITH A
LOWER RESULTING POP. TEMPS SHOW A SLOW BUT STEADY COOLING TREND THRU
THE PERIOD...ENDING UP NEAR NORMAL BY SAT.

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR. FEW TO OCCASIONALLY SCT CU GENERALLY 8-9KFT LATE THIS
MORNING AND WILL LIKELY LOWER SOME AS MIXING INCREASES...BUT
COVERAGE IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CIG.
INSTABILITY WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR CONVECTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE NE TODAY....VEERING SE TONIGHT. SOME GUIDANCE IS LEANING
TOWARD DAYBREAK FOG MONDAY MORNING AT SURROUNDING SITES...BUT OTHER
GUIDANCE IS LESS PESSIMISTIC.

ELSEWHERE...VFR. SO FAR MOUNTAIN FOG HAS BEEN LIMITED TO VALLEYS
WELL SW OF KAVL. HIGH VFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY TODAY AS CIRRUS
MOVES OVERHEAD. LOW VFR CIGS LATER TODAY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE NC
MOUNTAINS WHERE CONVECTION WILL COULD OCCUR IN BETTER INSTABILITY.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NE MORNING...EXCEPT AT KAVL WHERE THEY
WILL VEER FROM NW TO SE TODAY AND RETURN TO NW TONIGHT...AND KHKY
WHERE THEY BACK FROM NE TO N TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE OF DAYBREAK FOG ON MONDAY...BUT THE BEST BET IS INITIALLY
IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WHERE COOL AIR WILL POOL.

OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES
THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

15-21Z 21-03Z 03-09Z 09-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 66%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RWH
NEAR TERM...TDP
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JAT/TDP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BROWNSVILLE TX

1241 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&

.AVIATION...SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A
FEW HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE
TONIGHT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THE REST OF TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL SECTIONS SUNDAY AND MOVE INLAND AS A WEAK 500MB
INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO SUN AFTERNOON.
EXPECT SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES THROUGH 18Z
SUNDAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF LOCAL AERODROMES 18Z
THROUGH 24Z SUNDAY AS A RESULT.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/
DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

AVIATION...DISSIPATING SHOWERS APPROACHING SOUTH PADRE ISLAND
HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY OF IMPACTING KBRO THROUGH 9 PM. NO THUNDER
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SMALL AREA OF RAIN AS IT DRIFTS SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 15 MPH. CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA OF RAIN AND
OTHER CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS ARE IN THE VFR RANGE
WITH NO MVFR OR IFR EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PROBABILITIES
FROM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUES TO INDICATE LOW
PROBABILITIES OF ANY AVIATION IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS OR LOW
VISIBILITIES. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT
BECOMING SOUTHEAST LIGHT TO MODERATE SUNDAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15
AND 20 KNOTS IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE LATEST BRO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE
12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.97 INCHES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER INLAND. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RGV. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ONCE AGAIN
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER MAY
PERSIST ON THROUGH DAY 7 WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLD
COVER TO PERSIST ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL.

THE GFS MEX AND ECMWF MODEL HIGH/LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 50/50 BLEND
OF THE TWO MODEL SETS FOR TEMPS. THE GFS MEX POPS STILL TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS MODEL TREND IS BEING SKEWED HIGH DUE TO CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF POPS IN THE LONG TERM.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
SEAS OF 1 FOOT WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL START OF NEXT WEEK FAIRLY
WEAK ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT STARTING LATE TUES/WED AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS MAY
PUSH THE WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE IN THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCEC CONDITIONS WED/THURS.
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

61/64

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

858 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING BEFORE
WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT. THIS FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY BEFORE
STALLING OVER THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE FOR
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 857 PM EDT MONDAY...

FOCUS FOR THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IS ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER ACROSS NE KY/SW OH THIS EVENING. THERE ARE
SEVERAL FACTORS THAT SUGGEST THIS CLUSTER WILL WEAKEN BY THE TIME
IT REACHES OUR FORECAST AREA. FIRST...THIS CLUSTER IS MOVING INTO
A REGION OF LOWER THETA-E AIR. SECOND...IT IS MOVING INTO A REGION
OF WEAKER LOW LEVEL INFLOW/WINDS. FINALLY...AS WE LOSE THE HEATING
FROM THE SUN...INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ALL OF THESE
FACTORS LEAD US TO LEAN TOWARD MANY OF MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTIONS
OF WEAKENING THIS CLUSTER AS IT ENTERS OUR SE WV COUNTIES AFTER
03Z/11 PM EDT. STORMS MAY PROPOGATE SOUTH INTO RICHER THETA-E
AIR/HIGHER INSTABILITY AXIS IN ERN KY. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CHC
POPS IN OUR NW COUNTIES AFTER 03Z.

WITH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MOVING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST...PUSHED UP TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO.

AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY
EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER
DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY
AND WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY
NECESSARY ADJUSTMENTS.

HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING
DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST
TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

COLD FRONT WILL HAVE JUMPED INTO THE PIEDMONT LEE TROUGH BY EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE PUSHING EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPING IN PLACE...POPS
APPEAR QUITE IFFY TUESDAY EVENING EXCEPT PERHAPS OVER THE FAR WEST
WHERE CLOSER TO A DEEPER MOISTURE AXIS TO THE WEST...AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIMETER GIVEN WEAKER DOWNSLOPE ESPCLY WHEN MIXING WEAKENS.
HOWEVER INSTABILITY NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO RUNNING WITH ONLY ISOLATED
EVENING POPS IN THESE SPOTS BEFORE DRY ADVECTION WINS OUT OVERNIGHT.
AREA WILL REMAIN IN BETWEEN FEATURES AND UNDER A BUBBLE HIGH WEDNESDAY
AIDED BY WEST/NW FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN AND LOWER PWATS. MOST GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE LATEST ENSEMBLES HAVE LITTLE PRECIP UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
WEDNESDAY SO TRIMMED BACK TO ONLY ISOLATED POPS ACROSS THE SW AND FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS WEDNESDAY DON`T APPEAR
QUITE AS HOT AS EARLIER GIVEN DECENT 85H COOLING DESPITE DOWNSLOPE
ALOFT AND MORE SUN. STILL THINK SOME LOW/MID 90S LIKELY EAST AND 80S
WEST.

MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN INITIAL WAVE
HEADS EAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND BEGINS TO LIFT THE FRONT BACK
NORTH WITH WEAK OVERRUNNING IN PLACE. GUIDANCE REMAINS SLOW TO MOISTEN
THINGS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST FLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE NOT
RETURNING UNTIL THURSDAY PER THE LATEST GFS/EURO. SINCE APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT WILL BE MAINLY OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTH WITH THE
FRONT...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SLIGHTS
OUT EAST.

PLUME OF DEEPER MOISTURE ADVECTS IN WITH THE LEAD SHORTWAVE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MODELS SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS WELL AS LIFT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACTLY WHERE THE CORE OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL TRACK WITH SOME SOLUTIONS FARTHER WEST WHICH WOULD
LIMIT FOCUS UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. THEREFORE
KEEPING LIKELY POPS CONFINED TO THE WEST AND CHANCE OUT EAST FOR
NOW. LEFT TEMPS CLOSER TO A MORE BLENDED SOLUTION PENDING DEGREE
OF SHOWER COVERAGE WHICH COULD MAKE THINGS COOLER THAN THE 80S TO
AROUND 90 SE ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

STRONG SHORTWAVE FOR EARLY AUGUST WILL PASS ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION TO START THE PERIOD ALLOWING A TRAILING COLD FRONT TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAROLINAS BY LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOTHER DIGGING 5H TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE ONSET OF
THE NEXT ROUND OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FLIP FLOP AS SOME SOLUTIONS NOW NOT
AS DEEP OR PROLONGED WITH THE EASTERN UPPER TROUGH IN HAVING A PASSING
5H COOL POOL EARLY IN THE WEEKEND BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW
AND SOME RETURN IN MOISTURE BY DAY7. THIS AHEAD OF ADDED UPSTREAM
CLIPPER TYPE ENERGY THAT SHOULD GIVE THE INITIAL SYSTEM A BIT OF A
BOOT TO START. THIS COULD ALSO KEEP MORE CLOUDS AROUND AT TIMES DESPITE
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IN PLACE...ALONG WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
SW SUNDAY AND MAINLY OVER THE WEST MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE.

THUS AFTER HIGHER CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS ESPCLY NORTH/WEST WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY...WILL HANG ONTO SOME ISOLATED TO LOW CHANCE
POPS SATURDAY AND OVER THE FAR SW SUNDAY DESPITE THE SURFACE FRONT WELL
TO THE SOUTH. OTRW THINKING THAT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN DRY PENDING LATER TRENDS WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL
PROGRESSION FROM LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPS TO COOL BACK TO JUST
BELOW SEASONAL LEVELS BUT NOT QUITE AS COOL AS SEEN YESTERDAY FOR
NOW.

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NWS BLACKSBURG FORECAST AREA
AT 23Z/7 PM EDT AS OUR REGION IS CURRENTLY SANDWICHED BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. A COLD FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH A WEAK
WARM FRONT NOTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC.

THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MESO MODELS AS TO WHEN SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS OHIO/N KY WILL ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AMONG THE MESO MODELS...THE HRRR IS HANDLING THIS COMPLEX OF STORM
THE BEST AND SHOWS DECAYING PRECIP ARRIVING AFTER 03Z. AS THIS
CLUSTER OF STORMS APPROACHES...IT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR
AND WEAKENING INFLOW WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THIS ACTIVITY
DIMINISHING...BUT WILL BRING POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS TO THE
MOUNTAIN TAF SITES AFTER 05Z/01 AM EDT.

THE ANTICIPATED CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL COMPLICATE THE FOG
FORECAST TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR FOG TONIGHT...MAY BE IN THE
FAR EAST WHERE BEST RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BUT THE EXACT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL PLAY A BIG
ROLE IN FOG POTENTIAL. CURRENTLY FEEL CONDITIONS WILL NOT FAVOR
FOG AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT FOG FROM TAFS THIS PACKAGE.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW
AND EXPECT SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD....THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION...BUT SIGNALS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST BEST CHANCE FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...AND AS A RESULT...ADDED VCTS TO KDAN.

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A
FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK WHICH COULD
BRING A BIT MORE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. THE THREAT OF SUB- VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL
THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS/PH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

714 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT MONDAY...

MCS ACTIVITY THAT DISSIPATED OVER WV BEFORE SUNRISE HAS LEFT A BUBBLE
HIGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT HAS SUPPRESSED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE REGION AND PUSHED STORM DEVELOPMENT OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS SHOULD
YIELD A DRY EVENING BEFORE ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST AND ARRIVES AT THE WESTERN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN WHEN THE
PRECIPITATION ARRIVES BUT BELIEVE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING WILL BE NO
EARLIER THAN 06Z AND EXPECT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE DECLINE WHEN IT
ARRIVES SO DO NOT EXPECT IT TO MAKE MUCH HEADWAY PAST SOUTHEAST WV AND
THE MOUNTAIN EMPIRE REGION OF VA.

THE FRONT WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW AND EXPECT
THIS TO TRIGGER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AGAIN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS APPEAR MORE BULLISH ON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
SLIGHTLY BETTER DYNAMICS BUT INSTABILITY IS LIMITED SO SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE MARGINAL AT BEST AND CONFINED TO EASTERN SECTIONS AS PER THE
CURRENT SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND
WAIT TO SEE HOW THE SITUATION UNFOLDS TONIGHT TO MAKE ANY NECESSARY
ADJUSTMENTS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT MORE MILD TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEW
POINTS START TO INCREASE. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM UPPER
60S/AROUND 70 EAST TO LOW/MID 60S WEST. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE AIDED BY
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WINDS...SO HIGHS
TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 90S EAST TO MID/UPPER 80S WEST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 715 PM EDT MONDAY...

EXPECT WINDS TO BE WESTERLY WITH SOME LOW LEVEL GUSTS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AS WINDS BECOME MORE NWLY WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...MBS/PH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1138 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED QUICKLY LATE THIS MORNING NEAR THE
LARAMIE RANGE...SO INCREASED POP TODAY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
LARAMIE RANGE WHERE SCATTERED COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE. THE
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE TSTORMS IS LOW TODAY...BUT STORM MOTION AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE MAIN CONCERN. STORM MOTION
THIS MORNING IS ACTUALLY A SLOW DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS ACTIVITY EVOLVES THROUGH THE
DAY ONCE A FEW PERSISTENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DEVELOP. MAY NEED TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

TODAY...FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NORTHWEST. LOOKS LIKE THE NAM PROJECTS A
LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO SET UP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WYOMING AND
COLORADO STATE LINE WITH A NICE 850/700 MB THETA-E RIDGE AXIS OVER
NORTHERN COLORADO. THUS...AS NAM DEPICTS...EXPECT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE COLORADO STATE
LINE...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING ALONG THE LARAMIE RANGE.

TONIGHT/MONDAY...MODELS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING MORE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BEING TAPPED INTO AND MOVING ACROSS OUR COUNTIES MONDAY
AFTERNOON...THOUGH NOW FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATED.
STILL THOUGH...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVING OVERHEAD AND
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE OUR FORECAST
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 25...WITH LESSER ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT MOVES
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...AND WITH PLENTY OF
LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...LESS ACTIVITY FURTHER
SOUTH WITH DRIER AIRMASS AND NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE USED...IT COULD
BE LONGER. FORECAST BASED OFF THE MORE MOIST ECMWF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

STARTING OFF WEDNESDAY...WE ARE LOOKING AT THE SEMI-PERMANENT
THATS BEEN IN THE AREA TO LAY ALONG THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY FURTHER EAST. GFS SHOWING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER EAST AND THUS THE ENTIRE CWFA DRY. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS THE BOUNDARY REMAINING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE
RANGE...WITH NORTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. THIS
WOULD GIVE MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH
AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING INTO SOUTH DAKOTA. STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
850MB WINDS IN THE PANHANDLE AND A 70KT 250MB JET COULD BE SETTING
US UP FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE AS WELL AS EASTERN LARAMIE
COUNTY...UP INTO GOSHEN COUNTY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO
PERSIST INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS THURSDAY.

AFTER A DRY FRIDAY WITH A TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE
CWFA...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BEST CHANCES
ALONG THE WYOMING COLORADO STATE LINE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND
NEBRASKA PANHANDLE AIRPORTS AS WAS THE CASE SATURDAY. HRRR USED
FOR TIMING OF CONVECTION...MAINLY ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR FROM
KSNY TO KLAR. TIMING LOOKS TO BE FROM 20Z THROUGH 01Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HUMIDITIES INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

455 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. DEPENDING ON WHICH MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE USED...IT COULD
BE LONGER. FORECAST BASED OFF THE MORE MOIST ECMWF THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 450 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015

HUMIDITIES INCREASING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES ALONG WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RUBIN
LONG TERM...GCC
AVIATION...GCC
FIRE WEATHER...RUBIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

253 AM MST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING LITTLE IF ANY
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE
WILL THEN BRING SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ALONG WITH A SLIGHT COOLING
TREND.

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF THE
CWA EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS IN PART TO THE GRADUAL TOP-DOWN DRYING
THAT WE STARTED BACK ON SUNDAY. A LOOK AT THE UPPER-LEVELS SHOWS AN
UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A SW-NE ELONGATED 500 MB RIDGE
CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A 300 MB HIGH
OVER WEST-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE RESULTING UPPER-LEVEL SWLY
FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH IS FURTHER
BEING AUGMENTED BY WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE END RESULT WAS A
PWAT VALUE OF 0.93 INCH ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WITH SIGNS OF
CONTINUED SCOURING OF MOISTURE FROM THE COLUMN ALL THE WAY TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER THE CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCTS.

BASED ON TRENDS ALONE...WE SHOULD SEE EVEN LESS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
THAN YESTERDAY. AT THIS POINT...AM DISCOUNTING THE RECENT HRRR RUNS
WHICH HAVE INSISTED ON DEVELOPING PRECIP IN THE WHITES ALL MORNING
LONG AND SUBSEQUENTLY INITIATING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS FAR NW
AS PINAL COUNTY. THAT SAID...DECIDED TO REINTRODUCE LOW-END SLIGHT
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
EXTREME EASTERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE WE MAY HOLD ONTO JUST ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO INITIATE A STORM OR TWO TODAY. THIS IDEA IS SUPPORTED BY
THE UNIV. OF AZ WRF RUNS AND THE EXPERIMENTAL HRRR (HRRRX) WHICH
HAS...AT LEAST QUALITATIVELY...BEEN OUTPERFORMING THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR RECENTLY.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE MID-LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO NM. AS THIS OCCURS...A SMALL INCREASE IN MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH TO SET OFF A FEW AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS WILL STILL ONLY BE ISOLATED ACTIVITY. THE
BIGGER STORY DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...SOME 8 TO 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. OUR RECORD HIGH OF 108 (2009) MAY BE IN JEOPARDY ON
WEDNESDAY. FOR MORE ON THE POTENTIAL RECORD HEAT PLEASE SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WE SHOULD SEE A NOTICEABLE UPSWING IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS OUR MID-LEVEL HIGH ROTATES INTO EASTERN NM
AND THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE ENSUING SLY/SELY FLOW WILL DRIVE
MOISTURE BACK TO ABOVE-CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS ACROSS SE AZ. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS AS IF WE`LL SEE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
ON FRIDAY BUT THIS DOES PARTLY HINGE--AS WE SAW LAST
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY--ON HOW ACTIVE THURSDAY IS. THAT SAID...NUDGED
POPS UP A BIT FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...NWP SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENT IN MOVING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL KICK THE HIGH A BIT
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL DRIVE THE BEST CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION INTO EASTERN ZONES ON SATURDAY. SOME MOISTURE MAY
SLOSH FAR ENOUGH WEST ON SUNDAY TO BRING BETTER CHANCES BACK TO
CENTRAL AREAS. THE 04/00Z GFS/ECMWF STILL SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH
POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MENTIONED BY THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST SHIFT. TIMING THESE SUBTLE FEATURES AND THEIR
IMPACTS ON OUR WEATHER IS NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT--EVEN AT SHORT
RANGES. AS SUCH...FOR NOW MAINTAIN NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU 04/16Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT
AGL...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU 05/05Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN
AFT 05/05Z. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION
NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TODAY...ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20 PCT
RANGE. INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FROM NEARLY OVERHEAD...
EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN
15 MPH. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
BREEZINESS...ESPECIALLY IN THE GILA VALLEY RIVER VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.

.CLIMATE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING HOT EARLY AUGUST TEMPERATURES TO THE
AREA...WITH A FEW SPOTS APPROACHING OR TYING RECORD HIGHS. NOT ALL
LOCATIONS IN SE AZ WILL GET INTO THE NEAR RECORD HEAT. BELOW ARE THE
SITES THAT WILL BE AT OR WITHIN THREE DEGREES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

DATE AUG 04 AUG 05
FCST RCD/YEAR FCST RCD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 107 109/1994 108 108/2009
FORT THOMAS 105 107/1995 106 109/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION 104 106/2009 105 108/1995

WITH A FORECAST HIGH OF 107 AT TUCSON AIRPORT TODAY...THIS WILL MARK
THE 7TH TIME SINCE 1895 THAT AUGUST HIT 105 OR HOTTER WHEN IT DIDN`T
OCCUR IN JULY. THE PREVIOUS SIX OCCURRENCES WERE IN
1914/1919/1945/1962/1975 AND 1977.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PUBLIC...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
CLIMATE...GLUECK

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PUEBLO CO

1119 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU
THIS EVENING...AND WL CONTINUE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING
THIS TIME OVR NRN AND ERN CO. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. OVR THE FORECAST
AREA...MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE ERN
MTNS AFTER ABOUT 01Z.

WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOMING SVR OR MARGINALLY SVR THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING OVR THE ERN PLAINS. BY MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE ENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER.

AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE DRIER AIR OVR THE AREA ON TUE...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH
MSTR AROUND FOR SOME ISOLD MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

...MONSOON RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE H5 CENTER SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH WY WED NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK SOME ISOLD TO CT
STORMS OVER THE MTS LATE WED...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...AND
THE WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING THE UPPER 90S BACK TO MOST OF SE
CO...ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN
MORE HOT AND DRY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE
HOT SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AT BEST.

FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EWD
INTO TX...AND SW FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CO. THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO WRN CO AS A TROUGH MOVES ASHORE
OVER NRN CA...AND THEN TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE MTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH STRENGTHENS MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW CO. THE
ERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT STILL
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.

BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST...BRINGING OUR AREA BACK TO A DRY AND HOT SUMMER PATTERN.
BUT HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR IS DEBATABLE. THE GFS RETURNS US TO THIS
DRY AND HOT PATTERN AS SOON AS SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
TIL LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES MAKE IT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
A TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACNW...AND A RIDGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
DETERMINE DAILY POPS AND TEMPS. SO...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. ROSE

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1117 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 24H AT ALL 3 TAF
SITES...KPUB...KALS AND KCOS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN.

DRIER AIR IS MOVING INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH I CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLD TSRA TOMOROW AFTERNOON AT ANY OF THE 3 TAF
SITES...THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS QUITE LOW AT THIS TIME.

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...HODANISH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

310 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT THEN STALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
TWO RATHER DIFFUSE FRONTS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THE FIRST
FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT IS BEING MAINTAINED BY
BOTH THERMODYNAMICS IN THE FORM OF HIGH CAPE AND DYNAMICS IN THE
FORM OF A PRONOUNCED JET STREAK.

INSTABILITY IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE. COMPARING LATEST KEWR ACARS
SOUNDING WITH RAP SUPPORTS LI`S ON -2 C AND THE 60KT JET ENTRANCE
WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS INDICATES CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH AREAS TO THE EAST (CT AND LONG ISLAND) BECOMING
VERY UNSTABLE. FOR EXAMPLE...KISP HAS 3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND -6 C
ON THE LI`S.

THUS AM FCSTING THE LINE THAT`S FORMING ALONG THE DELAWARE TO
CONTINUE AND GROW. HAVE ADDED GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN TO THE
TSTM DESCRIPTORS.

WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY SEVERE AND QUICK SPIN UPS.

HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR CT AND LONG ISLAND. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
IS EAST OF CT AND LONG ISLAND BY 930 AM.

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.

.SHORT TERM /9 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VERY LITTLE APPRECIABLE
DIFFERENCE WILL BE FELT WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL
AND SIMILAR HUMIDITY AS MONDAY. LATE TONIGHT THE UPPER TROUGH
BUILDS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...FORCING THE ATTENDANT SURFACE
FRONT FARTHER OFFSHORE WITH LOWER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE
REGION. A SUBSEQUENT DECREASE IN HUMIDITY WILL BE FELT AS THIS
OCCURS.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER
THE AREA INTO THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEPARTS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SURFACE LOW OVER THE MID-
WEST TREKKING EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AFFECTING THE AREA MAINLY
FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE IT TRACKS AND THEREFORE HOW MUCH RAIN
WE DO RECEIVE. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR MORE CERTAIN THAT A
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS IN STORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

ISENTROPIC LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW NOTED IN BOTH THE
12Z GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...MAINLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...SO THINKING
THIS WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM RAIN. SURFACE LOW CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS DIFFER IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW.
THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS AGREE WITH THE LOW BEING OVER THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BY 06Z SATURDAY. THEREAFTER...MODELS DIFFER
QUITE A BIT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS. 12Z ECMWF TREKS THE LOW NORTHEAST IN
SIDE THE 40/70 BENCHMARK THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS WHILE THE GFS WEAKENS THE LOW OVER THE OLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND WEAKER WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG
IT...WHILE THE 12Z CANADIAN IS AN OUTLIER BEING MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN
THE OTHER MODELS. THEREFORE...SIDED MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS
AND ECMWF AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONABLE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. RAIN AND CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN ON FRIDAY...NOT
MAKING IT OUT OF THE 70S REGION-WIDE. IN FACT...TEMPERATURES MAY
PROVE TO BE A BIT LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

ARE WATCHING AREAS OF CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST. THESE STORMS
SHOULD APPROACH THE NYC METRO AROUND 09Z. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
TEMPOS IN TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINALS EAST OF
NYC WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE OF ANY THUNDER REACHING THOSE TERMINALS.
AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTION
TIMING.

EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.TUE NIGHT...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS IN THE
EVENING. BECOMING VFR OVERNIGHT. SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER
THE WATERS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER OR NEAR THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
THE OCEAN.

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

201 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 9 AM THIS MORNING/...
IT APPEARS TO ME LIKE WE HAVE TWO FRONTS...BOTH RATHER DIFFUSE.

THE FIRST FRONT IS FORCING CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT. THIS CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY REACH THE NY METRO BEFORE SUNRISE. HAVE RAISED POPS
TO LIKELY THERE. THE QUESTION IS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE ACTIVITY
BEHIND THE INITIAL CLUSTER AND WILL THE INITIAL CLUSTER SURVIVE
INTO CT?

RAP AND HRRR DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS DEVELOPING PCPN.
NARRE-TL SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER COMPOSITE OF THE TREND THAT
SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY CONTINUES AND INCREASES AS IT MOVES INTO CT
FOR THE EARLY MORNING RUSH. KEEPING THE SCT COVERAGE FOR THIS
BETWEEN 6 AND 9 AM LOCAL.

IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY BEHIND THE EASTERN PA CLUSTER
WILL WEAKEN - BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING REMAINS LOW.

EXPECT ADDITIONAL REVISIONS AS THE CONVECTION EVOLVE EARLY THIS
MORNING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

LOW PRESSURE PUSHES AWAY FROM THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT S-SW WINDS OF 5-10 KT AT KNYC TERMINALS AND 5 KT OR LESS
INLAND OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CIGS
ARE LIKELY FROM KISP AND POINTS EAST FOR LOW STRATUS.

AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-SW AND INCREASE TO
8-12 KT. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL SEA BREEZES
POSSIBLE AT COASTAL TERMINALS.

SCT SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MARINE...
FORECAST ON TRACK...NO UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STRONG INTO LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT.

OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY EVENING.

.HYDROLOGY...
A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THIS MORNING.
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN ANY HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.

$$
SYNOPSIS...MD/JP
NEAR TERM...MET/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...BC/MPS
MARINE...MET
HYDROLOGY...MD/JP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE...A FEW CLOUDS ARE DRAPED OVER THE NORTH WITH A SHORT
WAVE PULSE PUSHING OFF THE FRONT RANGE INTO THE PLAINS OVER THE
TX/OK PANHANDLE AND MUCH OF KN WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WE COULD SEE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION
LATER TODAY OVER THE NORTH AS THIS ENERGY WORKS EASTWARD OVER AR.
MOST MODELS ARE DRY...BUT THE OVERDONE NAM WAS ACTUALLY A STARTING
POINT. THE HRRR FLARES IN A BIT OF DEVELOPMENT EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON OVER A GOOD BIT OF REAL ESTATE. SPC HAS ALL BUT EAST TX
IN A GENERAL THREAT AND WPC DOES HAVE A BIT OF QPF NORTH. THERE IS
A LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN THE SLIGHT POPS SOUTH...BUT HAVE LEFT IN
FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER OUR SOUTHERN TIER OF CO/PA. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS SHORT WAVE LOOK FOR THE UPPER RIDGE TO LIFT BACK FROM THE
SOUTH OVER US AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND WITH CLIMBING AFTERNOON NUMBERS
LIKELY. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE MODELS ARE A LITTLE DRIER AND
THIS SHOULD KEEP JUST AN ADVISORY CRITERIA GOING AS THE SCHOOL
YEAR BEGINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY HARD TO
COME BY WITH HIGH BASED CU NOT VERY GENEROUS. LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING
LEFT US WITH MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVEL AROUND 7.3KFT. THE
CIRRUS AND SOME MID DECK WILL HELP TO KEEP SOME MIDDLE 90S ALONG
THE I-30 CORRIDOR OF MAINLY AR. EXPECT THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN
TO LINGER UNDER LOWER HEIGHTS ALOFT FOR A COUPLE OR FEW DAYS AND
THEN DISAPPEAR AGAIN AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS BACK NORTHWARD.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 100 78 100 79 / 10 10 20 20
MLU 99 77 98 76 / 10 10 20 20
DEQ 96 74 98 76 / 20 20 20 20
TXK 98 78 100 79 / 10 20 20 20
ELD 98 76 97 76 / 10 20 20 20
TYR 99 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 10
GGG 100 77 100 78 / 10 10 20 20
LFK 97 76 99 76 / 20 10 10 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

24/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LAKE CHARLES LA

1128 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 04/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.AVIATION...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONDITIONS. ON TUESDAY...BETTER MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME MORE CU
DEVELOPMENT...ALONG WITH A FEW MORE SHOWERS OR STORMS AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...THE LOCATION THAT IS
PROGGED TO HAVE A LITTLE BETTER SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION IS LOWER ACADIANA. THEREFORE...WILL
PLACE VCTS AFTER 04/18Z FOR KARA AND AFTER 04/19Z FOR KLFT.

RUA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 953 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY LIFTED NORTH ABOUT MIDWAY ACRS THE CWA BEFORE
DISSIPATING EARLIER THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY DIDN`T BRING MORE
THAN AN ISLTD SHOWER OR TWO SOUTH OF I-10 BUT WAS FAIRLY EVIDENT
ON THE SFC DEWPOINT ANALYSIS...SEPARATING LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S NORTH. HERE AT KLCH THE
DEWPOINT CLIMBED FROM 62 DEGREES TO 72 DEGREES BETWEEN 23-00Z. THE
END RESULT IS A RETURN OF WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AND THIS
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS SLY FLOW
PREVAILS WITH SFC HIGH PRES TO THE EAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

MARINE...A WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND LOW SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES REESTABLISHED OVER THE
NORTHWEST GULF. 23

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX 73 96 75 95 / 10 20 10 20
LCH 76 94 78 94 / 10 20 10 20
LFT 76 94 77 94 / 10 30 10 30
BPT 75 95 77 94 / 10 20 10 20

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...07

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

121 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS AND POPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATUES AND A FEW SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THIS WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS TO LINGER THRU THE MORNING AS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST CYCLONIC NW FLOW
AROUND LOW PRES NEAR HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
THE RULE FOR THE MOST PART AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW...CIGS MAY DROP INTO
THE HIGH END MVFR RANGE AROUND SUNRISE GIVEN CURRENT OBS UPSTREAM TO
THE NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EVEN IF CIGS DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY...
DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL DRYING WILL ALLOW A RETURN OF VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. UNDER DEEPER DRYING
DURING THE AFTN...EXPECT CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT AT ALL TERMINALS.
WHILE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR SPRINKLES ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES INTO THE
MORNING HRS...VFR VIS SHOULD PREVAIL.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BILLINGS MT

348 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE PATTERN HAS TURNED FROM HOT AND DRY TO COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN
PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORING...CENTRAL
ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS WYOMING...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH STRETCHED TO SOUTHERN CANADA...SO
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. AS FAR
AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...PWATS WERE ADVERTISED AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE EAST. THIS IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S
OVER THE EAST. STORMS WILL FORM THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
ZONES...SPREAD IN CENTRAL ZONES LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN FORM OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 30KTS...SO SEVERE NOT A HUGE
CONCERN...OTHER THAN MICROBURST WINDS WITH COLLAPSING CELLS. WEAK
SHEAR AND STEERING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING PULSING CELLS
THAT WILL HAVE HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES OVER THE EAST. THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN STORMS MAY EVEN BE AS FAR WEST AS BIG HORN AND
EASTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH. HRRR HAS
CELLS GOING UP OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN
COUNTY AROUND NOON AND THEN DEVELOPS UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES
WITH EARLIER CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. THE EAST WILL HAVE ENOUGH
CLOUD BREAKS TO WARM BACK UP TO THE UPPER 80S. THE STORMS ARE
PROJECTED TO EXIT THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY COULD POTENTIALLY
BE ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST GETS
DRIVEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ACCESS
TO A TROPICAL LINK AS EVIDENCED BY WATER VAPOR...SO THERE WILL BE
JUICE FOR CONVECTION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO SLIDE TO THE
SOUTH. SHEAR WILL BE STRONGER...AROUND 40KTS...AND CAPES RISE TO
AROUND 800J/KG. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH A SEVERE STORM OR TWO A DEFINITE POSSIBILITY.
STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINERS...WITH THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
PWATS ADVERTISED AT AROUND AN INCH. TWH

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
EXITING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

FOLLOWING THE EXIT OF THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...THE RETURN OF
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL KEEP THE PATTERN DRY THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...WHEN THE NEXT PACIFIC TROF PUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
IS PROGGED TO BE ANOTHER WET SYSTEM...BRINGING PACIFIC
MOISTURE...AND TAPPING INTO MONSOONAL FLOW AS WELL. THE WAVE
HOWEVER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE HOLDING TOGETHER VERY WELL...GENERALLY
LOSING ORGANIZATION AND ENERGY AS IT APPROACHES. THEREFORE HAVE
KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW...EVEN THOUGH IT HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT
FROM RUN TO RUN. THIS WAVE...IF IT CONTINUES TO HOLD TOGETHER...WILL
CROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE REGION ONCE AGAIN. TIMING ALSO SHOULD LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPS FOR SUNDAY...BUT STILL IN LOW 80S AT THIS POINT.

AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE A BIT...BUT DO AGREE ON SOME DEGREE
OF SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING BRINGING TEMPS APPROACHING 90 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION
AGAIN. AAG

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE REGION
TODAY...WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND FREQUENT MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM EASTERLY TO WEST-
NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS OF 15-25 KNOTS...AS DISTURBANCE CROSSES
THE REGION TODAY. AAG

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 059/084 058/085 056/083 057/085 058/083 059/089
6/T 34/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 082 053/080 050/081 049/083 051/081 052/080 052/086
6/T 35/T 52/T 11/B 13/T 44/T 32/T
HDN 084 056/087 057/087 054/085 055/088 057/085 057/091
7/T 43/T 52/T 11/B 12/T 22/T 21/U
MLS 090 059/088 061/086 058/084 057/086 060/083 059/090
7/T 82/T 54/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 31/B
4BQ 088 058/088 059/085 057/083 057/085 059/084 058/089
7/T 72/T 52/T 21/U 12/T 33/T 31/B
BHK 088 058/086 059/082 056/081 054/083 057/080 056/085
4/T 82/T 44/T 22/W 12/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 079 052/086 054/083 052/083 054/085 055/082 054/088
6/T 43/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/U

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR ZONES 31>33-36-37-58.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

352 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LARGE UPPER LOWS OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HUDSON BAY
WITH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO CANADA. VERY PRONOUNCED
NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING AS SEEN
IN IR... MOVING UNDER THE RIDGE. BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
FROM HUDSON BAY LOW INTO THE SOUTHEAST CONUS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

MAIN PLAYER TODAY WILL BE UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER WYOMING AND
COLORADO. ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST NORTHEAST TODAY CONVECTION WILL BEGIN OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY.
PWATS ABOVE AN INCH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS ABOUT 125%
OF NORMAL. AS LOW MOVES CLOSER AND HEATING OF THE DAY. FAVORABLE
WIND PROFILES FOR DEVELOPMENT OF OGRANIZED CONVECTION ALONG THE
STATIONARY FRONT LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM CLOSES OFF AND
NEGATIVE TILT OF SYSTEM WILL BRING PROLONGED SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.
HIGHS TODAY IN THE MID 80S. ONGOING PRICIPITATION OVER THE EAST
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S WEST AND LOWER
60S EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEDNESDAY IN THE
WAKE OF TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHTS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. WITH THE
RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND LITTLE FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AT THE
SURFACE...WILL GO WITH A DRY DAY AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING LINGERING
SHOWERS/TSTMS FROM DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE NEXT WAVE ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. APPEARS TO BE JUST ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAVE TO CONTINUE THE MENTION OF A FEW TSTMS ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER WAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE THE FRONT FROM ALONG A LINE FROM ROUGHLY
EWING TO BURWELL TO BROKEN BOW BY AROUND 4PM OR PEAK HEATING. VERY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC BASED CAPE NEAR 4500 J/KG
AND 30 TO 40 KTS OF 0 TO 6 KM BULK SHEAR. IF STORMS DEVELOP SEVERE
WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE. IT DOES APPEAR STORMS WILL DEVELOP AS
TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FORCING INCREASES.

FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...OVERALL UPPER PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY
UNCHANGED WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT WILL ROTATE EAST ACROSS
THE REGION ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND NIGHTIME TSTMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS MID TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS
IN THE 60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE SATELLITE AND THE RAP SUGGEST A DISTURBANCE ACROSS NCNTL COLO
COULD BEGIN AFFECTING SWRN NEB TUESDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 15Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST AND NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE AFTN AND EVENING.

MEANWHILE...STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN CUSTER COUNTY. THE
SREF INDICATES MVFR/IFR CIGS SHOULD DEVELOP BY 09Z ACROSS NCNTL
NEB AND THE CNTL SANDHILLS...AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY 12Z
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AROUND 15Z TUESDAY MORNING.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1132 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTH LEAVING
TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL AN UNCERTAINTY. SHEAR IS MARGINAL HOWEVER INSTABILITY
/CAPE/ IS GOOD. THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH STORMS A FEW HAVE BECOME
STRONG AND EVEN SOME SEVERE STORMS HAVE MATERIALIZED WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY HAS BEEN TEMPS...WHICH
ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
STORMS BUT UNSURE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT AGREE WITH THE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR NOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.

TOMORROW THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...HOWEVER WHEN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THOUGH WARM AIR CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA...
PERSISTENT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE.

SOUTH FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AGAIN. THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE DRY LINE (INDICATED IN THE
THETA-E GRADIENT)SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS. THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1000J/KG WITH 35-45KT DEEP
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE UPDRAFTS AND THE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY THAT
THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND THE SHEAR BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...CDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1152 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MESOSCALE MODELS TRACK THE CLUSTER OF TS OVER NE NM GRADUALLY SEWD
INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 10Z OR SO. WATCH FOR GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
TO IMPACT KTCC AND POSSIBLY KLVS OUT OF THE N OR NE UNTIL 9 OR
10Z. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT A TROUGH PASSING N OF NM SHOULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY
ENOUGH FOR ISOLD AFTN -TS/-SHRA OVER THE MTS AND ESPECIALLY THE N
MTS. SOME OF THESE MAY TRACK SEWD OVER KSAF AND KLVS IN THE
AFTN...THEN FARTHER SE ONTO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING. AN
FAA ADAS PROBLEM HAS RESULTED IN A LONG DURATION METAR OUTAGE AT
KLVS...SO NO AMENDMENTS THERE.

.PREV DISCUSSION...1001 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED POP/WEATHER AND SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BE
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN CONVECTION TRENDS
EAST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. WATCHING A PACIFIC PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH SOME BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AZ. IR SATELLITE
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA AND SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECIDED TO PUT IN A
CHICKEN 10 POP FOR THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES THERE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ACTION WOULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND OVER THE
AREA. THE 0Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE STARTING
AROUND 10000 FEET MSL. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. RELOOKED AT TEMPS BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP. THUS CURRENT MIN T
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY SOLID. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING SOME OF THE
HIGH MTN BASINS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. DEWPOINTS WOULD
NEED TO DROP A BIT MORE FOR THAT. PERHAPS TUE NIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS DRY AIR WILL
KEEP AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN FROM
THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY. AS THE MOISTURE PLUME DEEPENS FRIDAY...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES AT/NEAR 500 MB MAKING IT VERY DIFFICULT FOR
BUILDING CUMULUS TO SURVIVE OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS. BOTH NAM
AND GFS KEEP THE NORTHEAST AND FAR EASTERN PLAINS ACTIVE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE THE DRY AIR TAKES OVER. TUESDAY LOOKS
LIKE THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT AND
UPPER HIGH NEARLY OVERHEAD. MODELS HINTING THAT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN MORE CLOUDS AND PERHAPS
A THUNDERSTORM TO TWO MORE THAN TUESDAY.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH GETS FORCED EWD SOMEWHAT
THURSDAY BY A CLOSED LOW APPROACHING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO BEGIN SEEPING BACK TO THE SW MTNS. THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST OVER THE TX PANHANDLE FRIDAY. THIS SHIFT
APPEARS TO RESULT IN A FULL FLEDGED SLY MONSOON PLUME AND ABOVE
AVG PWATS. SCATTERED TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO MOST AREAS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR SUNDAY. GFS ELONGATES THE UPPER
HIGH WWD...ALLOWING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO BRING IN DRIER AIR TO THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. ECMWF ON THE OTHER HAND AMPLIFIES
AND SHIFTS THE HIGHER FARTHER EWD OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF
OK/TX...RESULTING IN A VERY CLASSIC LOOKING DEEP MONSOON PLUME
SMACK DAB OVER NM. SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE BTWN THE TWO OPERATIONAL
SOLUTIONS AND TOWARD THE GFS ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT DOMINATING NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY ADVANCE EASTWARD. THE LEADING EDGE OF SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER MID-
LEVEL AIR EXTENDED FROM TRINIDAD CO TO ALBUQUERQUE TO SILVER CITY.
WEST OF THIS LINE...SHALLOW CUMULUS CLOUDS ABOUT THE EXTENT OF
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...BUT WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED STORM INTO THE EARLY EVENING MAINLY NEAR NAVAJO RESERVOIR
AND THE WEST-CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. MORE IMPORTANTLY...DEEPER MIXING HAS
ALLOWED WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20MPH TO SURFACE...ESPECIALLY
THE DIVIDE REGION. DEW POINTS ALREADY TRENDING DOWNWARD AS MUCH AS
10 TO 12 DEGREES AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. FARTHER EAST...EXPECT
SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS
MAINLY NORTHEAST. A FEW OF THESE COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS.

AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE LIKELY A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE LOWERING DEW POINTS IN THE COMING DAYS PARTICULARLY BEFORE
AND JUST AFTER PEAK MIXING PERIODS. AS WE OBSERVED DURING THE LAST
DRYING EPISODE...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO RAPIDLY LOWER FOR 1-3 HOURS
AROUND PEAK MIXING BEFORE REBOUNDING NEARLY AS RAPIDLY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. EITHER WAY...MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND
DOWNWARD ANOTHER 5 TO 15 PERCENT OVER TODAY AND A BIT FURTHER STILL
FOR WEDNESDAY. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION EFFECTS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FACTORED INTO THE GRIDDED DEW POINT FORECASTS.

WIDENING DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES THROUGH THURSDAY OWING TO THE
DRIER AIR MASS. COOLER NIGHTTIME LOWS...AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE AS MUCH AS 10-12 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

UPPER HIGH SQUARELY OVER THE AREA MID-WEEK WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN IN THE
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN STORM COVERAGE
INITIALLY WC/SW PORTIONS OF THE AREA...THEN MORE OF THE REGION BY
THE WEEKEND. EQUALLY IMPORTANT...DIURNAL TEMP SWINGS NARROW WITH
LESS HEAT TO END THE WEEK.

MODERATE HAINES VALUES TO EXPAND AREAWIDE TUESDAY...AND PREDOMINATE
WEDNESDAY. HAINES INDEX VALUES OF 6 WILL DEVELOP OVER A GOOD CHUNK
OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BY THURSDAY. VERY GOOD OR BETTER
VENTILATION FOR TUESDAY...BUT VENT RATES LOWER ON WEDNESDAY FOR
CENTRAL/WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS TRANSPORT WINDS WEAKEN THOUGH STILL
GOOD OR BETTER FOR MAJORITY OF LOCALES. KJ

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM

1001 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
MADE A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDDED POP/WEATHER AND SKY COVER
FORECAST FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CHANCES WILL SIGNIFICANTLY BE
DIMINISHING SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MAIN CONVECTION TRENDS
EAST ACROSS THE NE PLAINS. WATCHING A PACIFIC PLUME OF MOISTURE
WITH SOME BROKEN HIGHER CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN AZ. IR SATELLITE
SHOWING A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS ACROSS SE ARIZONA AND SHOULD MOVE
OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. DECIDED TO PUT IN A
CHICKEN 10 POP FOR THAT AREA. THE LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS SOME LIGHT
SHOWER CHANCES THERE. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN ACTION WOULD BE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST. SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION FOUND OVER THE
AREA. THE 0Z ABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY WEDGE STARTING
AROUND 10000 FEET MSL. PRETTY IMPRESSIVE. RELOOKED AT TEMPS BUT
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DROP. THUS CURRENT MIN T
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY SOLID. WAS ORIGINALLY THINKING SOME OF THE
HIGH MTN BASINS COULD DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S. DEWPOINTS WOULD
NEED TO DROP A BIT MORE FOR THAT. PERHAPS TUE NIGHT.

.PREV DISCUSSION...602 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD BE
ISOLD AND FAVOR N CENTRAL...NE AND E CENTRAL NM. AN EXCEPTION WILL
BE ACROSS THE FAR NE PLAINS WHERE A LINE OF SEVERE STORMS SHOULD
CONTINUE TRACKING SLOWLY SSE AND EVENTUALLY EXIT INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE. DRY AIR WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY...BUT A TROUGH PASSING N OF NM COULD ENHANCE INSTABILITY
ENOUGH FOR A FEW ISOLD AFTN STORMS OVER THE MTS. SOME OF THESE
MAY TRACK SEWD OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRYING OUT AND HEATING UP THROUGH THURSDAY BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE RAMPS UP FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

215 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT
THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SECOND COLD FRONT...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OTHERWISE IT WILL TURN DRIER
AND COOLER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT...OUR REGION SHOULD EXPERIENCE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER SAVE FOR A FEW SHOWERS PASSING ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO AND INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH... AND A LINGERING SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN TIER. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING MAY ALSO ALLOW SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN
TIER AND SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO WHERE THE STEADIEST SHOWERS
FELL ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
EVENING UPDATE...A LOBE OF UNSEASONABLY COOL -1SD TO -2SD 850MB AIR
WILL SWING ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY LEVELS OVER LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LAKE ENHANCED RAIN SHOWERS
EMBEDDED WITHIN MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF A
500MB VORT MAX.

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXITING INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER...AND ALSO PUSHING ACROSS
LAKE ONTARIO INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY. DUE TO THE LIGHT NATURE OF
THE SHOWERS... THESE WILL BE UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE REDUCTIONS IN
VSBY. OF MORE CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FROM PORTIONS OF THE FINGER LAKES NORTHEASTWARD INTO OSWEGO
COUNTY...WHERE SOME IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

ANY SUCH FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD THEN MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...LEAVING BEHIND GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH LATE MORNING/MIDDAY. AFTER THAT TIME...THE COMBINATION OF
AN APPROACHING SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD
TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING... ANY OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE RESTRICTIONS TO IFR/MVFR.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL CROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH DRYING
AND SUBSIDENCE IN ITS WAKE LEADING TO A RETURN TO DRIER
WEATHER/VFR CONDITIONS IN MOST LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO
OWING TO A COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING LAKE
INFLUENCES.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE MVFR ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY...OTHERWISE VFR.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
A FALL LIKE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF A SECOND COLD FRONT COULD SET
THE STAGE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEPTHS AND LAKE-850
DELTA-TS OF AROUND 15C WHICH FIT THE SZILAGYI WATERSPOUT NOMOGRAM
POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LOW WATERSPOUTS. A SLIGHT CHANCE HAS BEEN ADDED
INTO THE FORECAST OVER THE LAKES.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...JJR
NEAR TERM...APFFEL/JJR
SHORT TERM...SMITH/WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...APFFEL/JJR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS STATE COLLEGE PA

334 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK BEFORE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT
MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC SFC COLD FRONT PRODUCING SOME STRONG TSRA
EARLY THIS AM ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA. SFC ANALYSIS
INDICATES COLD FRONT IS ONLY JUST ENTERING THE NW MTNS AT 07Z AND
NEAR TERM MDLS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL LATE AM TO CLEAR
LANCASTER CO. HOWEVER...MID LVL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC LG SCALE
FORCING WILL SWEEP EAST OF THE REGION BY DAWN. THUS...EXPECT BACK
EDGE OF SCT CONVECTION TO RAPIDLY EXIT THE EASTERN COUNTIES
BTWN 08Z-10Z...AS THE LATEST HRRR DEPICTS.

CLEARING SKIES...LGT WIND AND WET GROUND IS ALREADY PROMOTING
PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS THE NW MTNS AS OF 07Z AND EXPECT PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REST OF CENTRAL PA ARND DAWN...AS
CLEARING SPREADS EAST. TEMPS ON TRACK TO BOTTOM OUT FROM THE U50S
ACROSS THE NW MTNS...TO NR 70F OVR THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOC CHILLY MID LVL TEMPS SHOULD SUPPORT SCT
DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE N MTNS THIS AFTN. A SHOT OF
ANOMALOUSLY DRY AIR...AS SEEN IN LOOP OF SATL-DERIVED PWATS...WILL
SLIDE FROM THE MIDWEST INTO SOUTHERN PA TODAY...LIKELY RESULTING
IN MSUNNY AND DRY WX OVER THAT PART OF THE STATE.

MDL 8H TEMPS RANGING FROM 13C-16C SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MAX TEMPS
FROM THE M70S OVR THE NW MTNS...TO THE U80S ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
VALLEY. HAVE INCREASED AFTN WGUSTS TO 15-20KTS BASED ON AMT OF
MIXING EXPECTED AND MDL 850 WIND FIELDS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE AIRSPACE THROUGH INTO THE PREDAWN HOURS. RADAR TRENDS
ARE STILL FAVORING THE SRN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE AND RISK OF TSTM IMPACTS. THE LATEST HRRR/COSPA SUGGESTS
STORMS DO NOT EXIT THE ERN AIRSPACE IN ZNY SECTOR UNTIL 08-10Z.
WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS INCREASED SINCE
00Z...SUSTAINED TERMINAL IMPACTS/SUB-VFR SHOULD BE LIMITED AS THE
STORMS ARE PROGRESSING STEADILY EWD.

THE OTHER POTENTIAL AVN CONCERN IS IFR FOG OR LOW CIGS DEVELOPING
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AS SKIES CLEAR. GUIDANCE SEEMS TO FAVOR
THE WRN TAFS GIVEN COMBO OF WLY UPSLOPE FLOW AND NARROWING DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND THE 06Z SCHEDULED ISSUANCE
CAN FURTHER ADDRESS THIS IF NEEDED.

FOR TUESDAY...LOOK FOR VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN CIGS 050 AND SFC
WIND GUSTS 15-20KTS 15-22Z.

OUTLOOK...

WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.

THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN LKLY AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.

SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED P.M SHRA/TSTMS.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...FITZGERALD/LA CORTE
NEAR TERM...FITZGERALD
SHORT TERM...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING MONSOON PLUME BEING ADVECTED EAST INTO
THE EASTERN CWFA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING NEAR RAWLINS. DRY SLOT MOVING INTO
CARBON COUNTY AT THIS TIME. STILL SEEING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE
LARAMIE RANGE AT 2 AM THIS MORNING. LATEST MESOWEST OBSERVATIONS
SHOWING THAT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING RAIN DID FALL ACROSS
CARBON AND ALBANY COUNTIES YESTERDAY UNDER THE MOISTURE PLUME.
AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE SHOULD SEE THIS PLUME TODAY.

DO BELIEVE MOST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE EAST OF THE
PANHANDLE TODAY...THOUGH LATEST HRRR SIMULATED RADAR DOES SHOW
SOME EARLY DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MORNING. LATEST NAM SOUNDINGS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO SHEAR AND CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1300J/KG OUT IN
THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
NEAR 1.3 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON OUT IN THE PANHANDLE MAKES ME THINK
THAT HEAVY RAIN WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. DID INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE NORTHERN
PANHANDLE ZONES AND NIOBRARA/NORTHERN GOSHEN COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST
WYOMING. WEAK STEERING FLOW COULD CREATE SLOW MOVING STORMS...SO
DAY CREW WOULD NEED TO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH
FLOODING FOR SOME AREAS.

UPPER LOW MOVES EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AFTER 06Z THIS EVENING
WITH MOST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COMING TO AN END AFTER THAT
TIME. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWFA. WINDS ON THE INCREASE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
NORTHERN MONTANA. GFS 700MB WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE ELEVATED TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY:
THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...SASKATCHEWAN
AND ALBERTA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR OUR REGION IN A
MORE ZONAL FLOW REGIME WHICH MAY YIELD TO SOME ANOMALOUS 700MB
FLOW(~30-35KTS). IF THINGS REALLY MIX OUT ON THURSDAY WE COULD
END WITH A GOOD SHOT AT SEEING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
SEE THE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW. IN ADDITION...TEMPERATURES
COULD BE QUITE WARM ESPECIALLY IN AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE
WHERE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL AID. WE DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE BLENDS TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. THE
WIND SPEEDS DO BACK OFF QUITE A BIT ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE TRIES TO MAKE A QUICK RETURN. AS A RESULT...TEMPERATURES MAY
BE A TAD COOLER WITH POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

SATURDAY-MONDAY:
THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPING OVER OUR REGION WHICH MAY BRING BACK THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE IN AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. THE MAIN
QUESTION DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. IF THE HEIGHT FALLS STAY FOCUSED
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THE MONSOONAL FETCH MAY NOT BE AS GREAT
WHICH MAY TEND TO SUPPRESS THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE ACROSS
COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER...IF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CAN
SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER EAST WE MAY SEE A STRONGER FETCH OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO AREAS EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FOR
NOW...WE WILL PLAY THINGS CONSERVATIVE UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A
BIT CLEARER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE TIMING
OF WHEN THE CLOSED LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION.

LATEST RADAR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE SHOWERS ROTATING THROUGH CENTRAL
WYOMING. THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND MAY
AFFECT THE RWL TAF SITE. THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES MAY SEE
SOME A FEW SPRINKLES...BUT THINGS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT
MVFR CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT RWL. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW
SHIFTS EAST TODAY...GUSTY WEST WINDS MAY KICK IN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE WITH RWL...LAR AND CYS POSSIBLY
RECEIVING GUSTS UP TO 35KTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINS EXPECTED TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES NORTH AND EAST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE TODAY. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE 301...302 AND 311 WHERE HEAVY RAINS COULD OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRIER DAY FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA. NEXT CHANCE FOR ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MONTANA AND SOUTHERN ALBERTA
CANADA. THIS WILL CREATE STRONG WINDS ACROSS WYOMING WHERE AREAS
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE COULD SEE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
AND AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL. GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AND
HUMIDITIES NEAR CRITICAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

1103 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND STALL ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE AREA ON THURSDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PNS IS FORTHCOMING WRT SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS MRNG. OTHERWISE...FCST
REMAINS ON TRACK AS OF 11AM. STILL EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY
DAY...THOUGH POP UP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AND
THE FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. NCAR ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT BEST WITH FOCUS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE KEPT POPS
AT ISOLATED ALL LOCATIONS AS HRRR POPS SOME CONVECTION SOUTH OF
THE ISLAND...THE CANADIAN HAS SOME OVER NYC AND NCEP HIRES ARW HAS
SOME OVER LONG ISLAND.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS. HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE NY/NJ METRO.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. DRY...LESS HUMID AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT LIFTS INTO
SOUTHEAST CANADA ON THURSDAY WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY/ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER THE ROCKIES WILL
SLOWLY SLIDE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THURSDAY. THE STRENGTH OF
THIS ENERGY WILL BE KEY TO THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE LATEST 00Z MODELS OFFER SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENCE THAT THERE WILL
BE LOW PRESSURE IMPACTING THE AREA SOMETIME ON FRIDAY INTO AT LEAST
THE FIRST PORTION OF SATURDAY. THE DETAILS ARE STILL VERY MUCH IN
QUESTION...BUT A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE 00Z GFS IS THE FLATEST AND SLOWEST AS IT DOES NOT REALLY DEVELOP
THE LOW UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY AMPLIFIES
BEHIND THE MAIN ONE. THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE STRONGEST WITH THIS ENERGY
AND DEVELOPS THE LOW ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY AND MOVES IT
JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE 00Z
GEFS ARE A BIT FASTER...WITH THE MEAN LOW TRACK AND TIMING SIMILAR
TO THE 00Z ECMWF.

HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ON FRIDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT. POPS THEN DECREASE TO CHANCE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. AS TIMING BECOMES CLEARER...EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF POPS.

THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY.

VFR WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

CHANCE OF ISOLATED TSTMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS...MAINLY EAST OF
NYC THROUGH SUNSET.

SEA BREEZES WILL INCREASE SW WINDS ARND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
FM 1 PM UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL TERMINALS INCLUDING
KJFK. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AFT SUNSET THEN SHIFT FROM THE W ARND 10
KT ON WED.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF WIND GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1
HOUR. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TONIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY LINGER
ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE WATERS ON THURSDAY WITH LOW
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. SUB SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 5 FT ON SATURDAY
ON THE OCEAN.

.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN WHERE AND WHEN THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL. ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD
LIMIT FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL THAT DO
DEVELOPS WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE/JMC
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...GC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW YORK NY

745 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECTING A MOSTLY DRY DAY...THOUGH POP UP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TSTMS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE FRONT BEING IN THE AREA. NCAR ENSEMBLE SUPPORTS
ISOLATED CONVECTION AT BEST WITH FOCUS IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. HAVE
KEPT POPS AT ISOLATED ALL LOCATIONS AS HRRR POPS SOME CONVECTION
SOUTH OF THE ISLAND...THE CANADIAN HAS SOME OVER NYC AND NCEP
HIRES ARW HAS SOME OVER LONG ISLAND.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS. HEAT INDICES GET INTO THE LOWER 90S
IN THE NY/NJ METRO.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
OCEAN BEACHES TODAY. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND OVERNIGHT. DRY...LESS HUMID AND
NEAR NORMAL FOR WEDNESDAY.

BLENDED MOS USED FOR TEMPS.

THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING ON SUNDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS DURING
THE PERIOD. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST AS
TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 70S.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE WEST.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE NOW COME TO AN END
ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AFTER 18Z...BUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF
THE TAF FOR NOW WITH LOW CONFIDENCE OF COVERAGE AND TIMING.

SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 5-10 KT INCREASE TO 8-12 KT. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES AT COASTAL
TERMINALS. EXPECT GUSTS INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20 KT RANGE.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING TO 10 KT OR LESS. TERMINALS OUTSIDE
OF NYC...MAY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF
GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR
TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AFTERNOON SEABREEZES LIKELY TODAY. TIMING OF
GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- 1 HOUR TODAY. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
ANY ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WED THROUGH SAT...
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS AND WINDS
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON.

.HYDROLOGY...
ORGANIZED SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

.EQUIPMENT...
TEWR TERMINAL DOPPLER RADAR REMAINS UNAVAILABLE.

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-
178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ350-
353-355.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TONGUE
NEAR TERM...TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...TONGUE
EQUIPMENT...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT SHOULD THIN IN TIME...WITH AREAS OF AC LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDMORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
CAN/T RULE OUT A WEAK STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z OVER SE
TX...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/SW AR AND EVEN
NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX AND THE DESERT SW. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS/AC SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E TX/NCNTRL LA. S WINDS 4-7KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RANGE OF 70S THIS MORNING WITH A DECENT DEW POINT SPREAD STILL
IN PLACE AT THIS HOUR. DEW POINTS WILL SPIKE A BIT AROUND MID
MORNING...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT ENOUGH TO KEEP THE HEAT INDEX IN THE
LOW END OF THE TRIPLE DIGIT...FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES...NEARLY
ALL OF TODAY. HOWEVER...A BIT OF AN INCREASE CAN BE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW WITH AREA WIDE LOW TO MID ONE HUNDRED DEGREE...FEELS LIKE
NUMBERS...INTO AND BEYOND MIDWEEK. FOR NOW ANOTHER DAY BELOW
CRITERIA FOR THE ADVISORY.

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSON MS

1038 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...

MIXING IS NOT AS STRONG AS IN RECENT DAYS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
IS ON THE INCREASE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL UNSEASONABLY LOW AT
KJAN WITH THE OBSERVED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE AT 1.36 INCHES THIS
MORNING. KLIX CAME IN AT 1.61 INCHES...BUT THAT IS MOSTLY IN RESPONSE
TO INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH MID LEVELS STILL LOOKING RATHER
HARSH FOR DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NONETHELESS...WITH A
DISTURBANCE OVER SE LA AND INCREASING COASTAL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE...WILL BUY INTO THE HRRR GUIDANCE INDICATION OF SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE HWY 98 CORRIDOR AND INTRODUCE
MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER HOT DAY
IS IN STORE. TEMPS/DEWPOINTS ARE PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK FOR TODAY AND
NO SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY.

ONE THING TO NOTE REGARDING THE HEAT FOR THE WEEKEND...MOST RECENT
GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING H850 TEMPS WILL EXCEED 26 DEG C AT SOME
POINT SAT/SUN. IF THESE VALUES VERIFY...WOULD EXPECT DRY BULB
TEMPERATURE READINGS TO EXCEED 105 DEG F IN A FEW LOCATIONS. /EC/

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AT
ALL TAF SITES. THE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE./15/17/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT DAY ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH HIGHS CLIMBING CLOSE TO 100
DEGREES ONCE AGAIN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE INCREASE IN THE RH`S...HEAT
INDICES WILL CLIMB CLOSE TO 105 IN THE WEST. WITH THE INCREASE IN
HUMIDITY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S AS
OPPOSED TO THE MID/UPPER 60S WE HAVE BEEN SEEING.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY WITH PWATS CLIMBING
ABOVE 1.8 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE
COMBINING WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND A WEAK SHORT...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HEAT INDICES WILL CLIMB ABOVE 105 MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER...SO A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THESE AREAS. WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING./15/

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THURSDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
RAIN OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE THE TWO
HOTTEST DAYS OF THE LONG TERM. THURSDAY OUR CWA WILL BE DOWNSTREAM
OF A LARGE 594DAM HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. A
SHORTWAVE TOPPING THIS RIDGE WILL MOVE FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THURSDAY EVENING. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD SOUTH OVER OUR CWA DURING
THE HEAT OF THE DAY. THE GREATEST POPS WL BE CARRIED OVER THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOWEST POPS OVER
OUR WEST. WL HAVE A MOIST AIR MASS BACK OVER OUR CWA WITH PWATS
BETWEEN 1.75-2.0 INCHES AND SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S. OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS SUGGEST A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH WL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE WEAK SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK
EAST AS WELL AND TRY TO DROP A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO OUR CWA. THIS
WILL HELP PROLONG LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE STALLED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE JUST NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 82 FRIDAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
LIMIT COVERAGE TO ISOLATED IN THE WEST WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE IN
THE EAST. SATURDAY THE LARGE MID LEVEL HIGH WILL BEGIN BUILDING EAST
OVER OUR CWA WHILE THE SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS FROM THE GULF COAST TO
THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOTTER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
OVER OUR CWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S. HIGHS WILL
REACH OR EXCEED 100F AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE
HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH HUMIDITY TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES
EXCEEDING 105 SATURDAY. EVEN HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. /22/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

747 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST
NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER ELKO COUNTY. A PASSING
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING STRONG GUSTY WEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE PACIFIC WILL INCREASE
WINDS AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.UPDATE...UPDATED ALL GRIDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, TO ALIGN WITH
12Z NAM/HRRR/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS DEPICTING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY
ELKO COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST COVERAGE EXPECTED
ON/NEAR THE RUBY, INDEPENDENCE, AND JARBIDGE MTNS, BUT EXPANDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WORDING ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEVADA. BAT

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 308 AM /

SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND THIS WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...AND A BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PWS ARE BEGINNING TO
DRY UP...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE HRRR PLACES THE BULK OF THE QPF OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WHITE PINE...AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE NAM. AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BUILD...AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET
NUDGED UPWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...A SLICE OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CA ...ERODING THE HEIGHTS OVER THE LKN CWA...AND
USHERING IN THE NEXT WAVE OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A BRIEF
DRY SPELL. HOWEVER A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND TO INTRODUCE SOME
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE A DRY PERIOD
FOR THE MOST PART AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4
CORNERS AREA OF THE COUNTRY MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER GREAT BASIN
WEATHER. THE GFS MODEL IS THE OUTLIER...ADVANCING LEADING
EDGE MOISTURE QUICKER...HINTING AT SOME PRECIPITATION SPREADING OUT
AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC LOW STILL OFFSHORE AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD. THE
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CALIFORNIA COAST ON FRIDAY
MORNING...THROUGH NEVADA...THEN EXIT NORTHWEST NEVADA SATURDAY
EVENING. AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS...BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WIND GUSTS ACROSS HIGH ELEVATIONS COULD EXCEED 50 MPH...PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG SOME OF THE HIGHER PASSES. THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FRIDAY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 AS THE WINDS INCREASE
AND THE HUMIDITY LEVELS DROP BEFORE ANY MOISTURE HITS THE GROUND.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED MOST EVERYWHERE FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...THEN FOCUS MORE TOWARD THE NORTH AS THE LOW
SKIPS THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AS AN OPEN WAVE. STABILIZATION
SHOULD OCCUR RATHER RAPIDLY SATURDAY EVENING...ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT NEAR THE IDAHO AND OREGON BORDERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBUILD...CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY SPELL.

AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

FIRE WEATHER...REMNANTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. AND THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIALOG HAS BEGUN
ABOUT THE EVOLVING SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...WHEN THERE APPEARS TO BE
A GLIMMER OF A RED FLAG EVENT. DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH THIS
PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NCEP RMOP IS NOT IN CONFIDENT TERRITORY THE NEXT
96 HRS...SO THE MODELING ISSUES ARE VERY PRESENT.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

99/99

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ELKO NV

308 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A DRYING TREND THIS WEEK. MONSOON MOISTURE IS
PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST...AND A BATCH OF PACIFIC MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED LATER THIS WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE PWS ARE BEGINNING TO
DRY UP...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE ENOUGH REMNANT MOISTURE TO
SUSTAIN CONVECTION. THE HRRR PLACES THE BULK OF THE QPF OVER
NORTHERN AND EASTERN WHITE PINE...AND SOUTHERN ELKO
COUNTIES...WHICH IS SECONDED BY THE NAM. AFTER TODAY...EXPECT THE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS TO BUILD...AND THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GET
NUDGED UPWARD. BY WEDNESDAY...A SLICE OF PACIFIC ENERGY WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN CA ...ERODING THE HEIGHTS OVER THE LKN CWA...AND
USHERING IN THE NEXT WAVE OF UNSTABLE CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START
WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN TO BRING A BRIEF
DRY SPELL. HOWEVER A PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA OVER THE WEEKEND TO INTRODUCE SOME
MORE SHOWERY WEATHER TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEVADA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN
REBUILD...CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE 4 CORNERS AREA TO PROVIDE
ANOTHER DRY SPELL.

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY...POSSIBLY AFFECTING KWMC AND KEKO. LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA THROUGH THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.FIRE WEATHER...REMNANTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INFLUENCE THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY. AND THEN A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A DIALOG HAS BEGUN
ABOUT THE EVOLVING SITUATION FOR FRIDAY...WHEN THERE APPEARS TO BE
A GLIMMER OF A RED FLAG EVENT. DID NOT ISSUE A WATCH THIS
PACKAGE...MAINLY DUE TO THE VAGARIES OF THE MODELS THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THE NCEP RMOP IS NOT IN CONFIDENT TERRITORY THE NEXT
96 HRS...SO THE MODELING ISSUES ARE VERY PRESENT.

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

97/92/92/97

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1039 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS MAY LEAD TO
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...WEAK LOW JUST OFF THE COAST EAST OF
GEORGETOWN SOUTH CAROLINA CONTINUES TO CAUSE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. CONVECTION OVER LAND
HAS INCREASED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE. DID NOT MAKE WHOLESALE CHANGES TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT DID TRIM/TWEAK POP GRADIENT AND VALUES
BASED ON RECENT RADAR TRENDS. THIS RESULTED IN A SLIGHT LOWERING
OF POP/QPF ALONG THE COAST AS WELL AS AN INCREASE IN POP/QPF
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INLAND NC.

CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SC THIS AM AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST BUT CHANCES ARE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. THE
NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE LOW LEVELS AND WEAK SURFACE
DIVERGENCE MAKE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
UNLIKELY. CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IF THE LOW
DEPARTS QUICKLY AND HEATING RESULTS IN SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY.
THERE IS HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUM WHICH WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY OVER
THE AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 AM FOLLOWS:
ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AS SFC LOW PRESSURE
CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...REACHING
THE ILM SC CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM NC CWA THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER SUPPORT THAT
WILL AID IN DRAWING IN THE RICH MOISTURE...PWS IN EXCESS OF 2
INCHES...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST KLTX VWP IN THE
LOW TO MID LEVELS. AT THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIEST RAIN AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO REMAIN JUST OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT PASSES BY THE ILM CWA.

POPS WILL BE ORIENTED LOWEST INLAND...ALONG AND WEST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR...TO HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE CAROLINA COASTS. THE
GROUNDS HAVE BEEN ABSORBING THE RECENT RAINS LIKE A SPONGE OF
LATE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO TODAY. EVENTHOUGH FFG VALUES
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES HAVE DECREASED SOME...ITS JUST NOT
LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT
QPF FORECAST FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AT ONE HALF TO 1 INCH. WITH
PWS PROGGED AT 2+ INCH AMOUNTS...THE FA STILL COULD EXPERIENCE
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM THE STRONGER AND MORE EFFICIENT
CONVECTION. OVERALL...WILL LIKELY OBSERVE NUISANCE TYPE FLOODING
OR PONDING OF WATER ACROSS THOSE NORMALLY PRONE AND VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK. MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE 90S WELL INLAND...AND IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. MIN TEMPS TO RANGE AROUND 70
INLAND TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AT THE COAST.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...HOT SUMMER WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM AS
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE COMBINES WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING...CREATING
MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME WEATHER. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY HOT
DAY WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND UPR 90S ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS DUE
TO VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ADVECTING EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS...AND
COMBINING WITH A WARM/DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW...SO EVEN COASTAL
SECTIONS WILL RISE WELL INTO THE 90S AS THE SEA BREEZE GETS
PINNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY...BUT DRIER AIR BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW FROM TUESDAY
WILL PREVENT ANYTHING BEYOND JUST A FEW STORMS. LOWS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE QUITE WARM...MID AND UPR 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 ON
THE BRUNSWICK COUNTY COAST.

SIMILAR WEATHER FOR THURSDAY ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS HOT AS THE
THICKNESSES BEGIN TO DECREASE AND MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY.
TEMPS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL...LOW 90S AT THE COAST
AND MID 90S INLAND...BUT LIKE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY.
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER TOO THANKS TO GREATER
INSTABILITY ON HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES...BUT ONLY
LOW-CHC POP IN A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME REGIME IS WARRANTED. ANOTHER
WARM NIGHT EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS REMAINING AT LEAST 5
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO...MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS FRIDAY AS TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS RE-AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO RIDGING
EXPANDING ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BE LED BY A POTENT
VORT DRIVING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH
GUIDANCE HAS NOW DIVERGED ON THE TIMING AND PROGRESSION OF THIS
SURFACE FEATURE. FOLLOWING WPC PROGS AS A REASONABLE
SOLUTION...THE FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND THEN LIKELY STALL
THROUGH THE WKND...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST EXPERIENCED THIS PAST
WKND. HOWEVER...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SHOULD BE A BIT DEEPER AND
THUS THE FRONT HAS A BETTER CHANCE OF MOVING OFFSHORE
SATURDAY...SO WILL OPTIMISTICALLY SHOW AT LEAST SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH TEMPS ACTUALLY BELOW CLIMO...AFTER
SEASONABLE BUT WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM TUESDAY...SLOW MOVING WEAK LOW IS RESULTING IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
THIS HAS PUSHED SEAS CLOSE TO 8 FT IN SOME AREAS AND THE SCA
CONTINUES FOR ALL ZONES. SURFACE ANALYSIS IS SHOWING PINCHED
GRADIENT JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW...RIGHT WHERE BUOYS ARE REPORTING
THE HIGHEST WINDS/SEAS. THIS AREA OF ENHANCED WINDS SHOULD SLIDE
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOW SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST
TODAY. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 630 AM FOLLOWS:
HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS FOR TODAY
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE TO A SFC LOW
MOVING N BY NE...MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SC AND NC COASTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG
DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT SPEEDS. GUSTS
OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY MIXING FROM ALOFT
DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS AND THE KLTX VWP
INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SFC. THE LOW WILL
MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT... LEAVING A SW-WSW
10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE.

SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT..WITH THE 7 FOOTERS
RESERVED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE 1 TO 3 FOOT UNDERLYING
SE GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. OVERALL...DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 7 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES
DOMINATING THE SEAS.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
FEATURE THIS PERIOD CREATING SW WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 10-15 KTS MOST OF THE PERIOD...BUT A SHARPENING
PIEDMONT TROUGH EACH EVENING WILL HELP WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS
RISE UP TOWARDS 20 KTS BRIEFLY WED AND THU EVE...BEFORE FALLING
BACK AGAIN EACH NIGHT. THESE WINDS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT DRIVER
OF SEAS...WITH A 5 SEC SW WIND CHOP CREATING 3-4 FT SEAS...UP TO 5
FT AT TIMES DURING THE STRONGEST WINDS EACH EVENING.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM TUESDAY...TYPICAL BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
RIDGED ACROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NW AND THEN DROP ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL DRIVE A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NW LATE. SEAS WILL BE DRIVEN PREDOMINANTLY BY THE WINDS...WITH 3-4
FT SEAS EXPECTED FRIDAY...FALLING TO 2-3 FT SATURDAY AS THE SPEEDS
EASE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

NEAR TERM...III
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

955 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM NEAR MYRTLE
BEACH NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND SETTLE INTO NORTH CAROLINA ON WEDNESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE NRN SC COAST POISED TO MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
NEAR THE SRN NC COAST AND SRN OUTER BANKS. A RATHER IMPRESSIVE
SHIELD OF CONVECTION ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW... AND SOME OF THESE
ELEMENTS HAVE SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SE CWA. THIS BEHAVIOR IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY... RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL PLAIN EAST OF I-95. THIS IS IN
LINE WITH NEARLY ALL COARSE AND HI-RES GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE SPC
SSEO... NSSL WRF... AND NCAR ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. SUBSIDENCE ON THE WEST
SIDE OF THIS FORMIDABLE LOW SHOULD HELP TEMPER MUCH OF THE
CONVECTION MORE INLAND (NW OF A FAY-WILSON LINE)... HOWEVER FARTHER
NW OVER THE NW AND FAR NRN PIEDMONT... SHEARED VORTICITY SPREADING
ESE FROM NE/IA/MO CONVECTION INTO THE BROAD BASE OF THE MEAN
LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD INTO ERN KY/TN AND WRN VA/NC LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING... LIKELY INSTIGATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG EITHER AN OLD OUTFLOW AND/OR THE BAGGY
PIEDMONT TROUGH... ALTHOUGH AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY... ENTRAINMENT
OF DRY AIR WITHIN THE BELOW-NORMAL-PW ENVIRONMENT PERSISTING OVER
THE WRN PIEDMONT OF NC WILL LIMIT COVERAGE/STRENGTH/LIFETIME OF ANY
SUCH CONVECTION. THE HRRR AND NCAR ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES BRING THIS
CONVECTION INTO OUR NW CWA AROUND MID AFTERNOON... WITH A SLOW
SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT AND EVENTUAL DISSIPATION BY MID EVENING... IN
LINE WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED.
AFOREMENTIONED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROMPT GOOD HEATING PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SRN AND ERN PIEDMONT AND WRN SANDHILLS (AWAY FROM THE
COASTAL CLOUD SHIELD)... AND HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 90S APPEAR
ATTAINABLE THERE... WITH LOW-MID 90S ELSEWHERE... COOLEST IN THE
EXTREME ESE CWA. -GIH

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 335 AM:
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF KCHS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD GENERALLY ALONG THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED DURING THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW...AND EXTRAPOLATION OF
THIS ACTIVITY (AND THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW) SUGGESTS IT SHOULD
REMAIN CONFINED FROM SAMPSON AND WAYNE COUNTIES AND ESPECIALLY
POINTS EASTWARD...IN AXIS OF FOCUSED 925-850 MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT
TO THE EAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS FROM THE LOW CENTER.

OTHERWISE...A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT WAS ANALYZED THIS MORNING FROM THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE MODELS INDICATE THE COLD FRONT
WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS VA TONIGHT...TO NEAR THE NC BORDER BY WED
MORNING. WILL RETAIN A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORM FROM ACTIVITY THAT COULD EITHER DEVELOP IN-SITU INVOF
A PIEDMONT SURFACE TROUGH AND/OR THAT IS MORE LIKELY TO INITIATE
UPSTREAM OVER THE NC/SW VA MOUNTAINS AND INVOF THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT...WHICH WOULD THEN PROPAGATE AWAY FROM THOSE FORCING
MECHANISMS AND INTO THE NC PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND
ASSOCIATED STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 C DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS...WOULD SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK OF STRONG TO DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS IF CONVECTION INDEED DEVELOPS OVER OR
PROPAGATES INTO...CENTRAL NC. HOWEVER...MID LEVEL FLOW AT THIS
LATITUDE/OVER CENTRAL NC WILL REMAIN ONLY MODEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MAIN BELT OF WESTERLIES AT THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED NEAR
JAMES BAY...SO ANY SEVERE OCCURRENCE SHOULD BE ISOLATED.

HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THOSE OF MON GIVEN A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN FORECAST LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES - UPPER 80S/AROUND 90
WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD BE MOST PREVALENT FROM KCTZ AND KGSB AND POINTS
EASTWARD...TO 90-98 DEGREES ELSEWHERE...HOTTEST FROM AFP TO FAY.
LOWS GENERALLY 70 TO 75...AFTER ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES OCCUR MOVES
EAST AND/OR DISSIPATES BY LATE EVENING.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

WHILE THE COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NC AND SERVE
AS A POSSIBLE TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION AGAIN WED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT -INCLUDING A SIGNIFICANT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT AT 850 MB- AND VEERED SURFACE FLOW INTO A PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH THAT THE MODELS INDICATE WILL HAVE DRIFTED INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN...SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT COVERAGE. ANY SCATTERED OR
WIDELY SO STORMS THAT DO FORM...HOWEVER...WOULD AGAIN POSE A RISK OF
STRONG EVAPORATIVELY-ENHANCED WIND GUSTS. WEAK CAA NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL TAKE THE EDGE OFF OF THE HEAT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PIEDMONT...WHERE LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED...VERSUS MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S
ONCE AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS. SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND LESS HUMID AS THE FRONT SETTLES TO THE NEAR THE SC BORDER BY
MORNING...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...

THE COLD FRONT FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE NC-SC BORDER THURSDAY MORNING
WILL MEANDER BACK TO THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...AS A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REGION TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY REGION IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING EAST FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN THE AMPLITUDE/TIMING THE SYSTEM THAT RESULT IN BELOW AVERAGE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR LATE WEEK.

THE NAM AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE MORE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A DEEPER
DISTURBANCE AND AND NOTICEABLY STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT TRACKS JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL NC LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WHILE THE GFS
SHOWS A VARIETY OF DISTURBANCES IN WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
THAT EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO A DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OUR
REGION LATE FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE BEST CHANCE POPS THURSDAY EVENING
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED CONSISTENCIES IN
THE ECMWF AND NAM...THOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE MAY ULTIMATELY END UP
TO OUR NORTH WITH THE RETREATING FRONTAL ZONE. WHILE THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL RESIDE TO OUR NORTH DURING THIS
PERIOD...THE AMPLITUDE OF THE DISTURBANCE DEPICTED IN THE ECMWF
(ALBEIT IMPACTING THE AREA AT A POOR TIME DIURNALLY) AND THE
PRESENCE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST A SEVERE THREAT ISN`T OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
EVENING...USHERING IN SOME DRIER AIR AND LEAVING MOST OF THE CWA DRY
AS THE FOCUS MOVES TOWARD THE COASTAL AREA FOR THE WEEKEND

THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD COVER AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD
LEAD TO HIGHS A BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY....REMAINING AT OR JUST BELOW
NORMAL SATURDAY BEFORE SLOWLY TRENDING WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK
BENEATH RENEWED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 800 AM TUESDAY...

MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE NNE PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE CENTRAL SC COAST THIS MORNING WILL MAINTAIN
SCATTERED TO BROKEN IFR-MVFR RANGE CLOUDS AT RDU/FAY/RWI...WHICH
WILL LIFT AND SCATTER TO VFR BETWEEN 13-16Z. WHILE AN ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL SITES IN ADVANCE OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
PARTICULARLY FROM INT/GSO TO RDU...AN AXIS OF MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...INCLUDING
FAY AND VICINITY...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS THIS MORNING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW PASSES BY TO THE EAST.

ASIDE FROM A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER/STORM WED-WED NIGHT...
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION AND RESULT IN A PEAK IN
THE PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS...NC
LATE THU-FRI.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...26/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...26

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

651 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST TODAY
BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CREATE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST
U.S. COAST...REACHING THE ILM SC CWA THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM
NC CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
UPPER SUPPORT THAT WILL AID IN DRAWING IN THE RICH MOISTURE...PWS
IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES...FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST
KLTX VWP IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS. AT THIS POINT...MODELS
INDICATE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND UPPER DYNAMICS TO
REMAIN JUST OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS AS IT PASSES BY THE
ILM CWA.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 630 AM TUESDAY...HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE
TO A SFC LOW MOVING N BY NE...MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE SC AND
NC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH OF A
TIGHTENED SFC PG DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 KT
SPEEDS. GUSTS OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF ANY
MIXING FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS AND
THE KLTX VWP INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN SFC.
THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LEAVING A SW-WSW 10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...DCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

626 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 345 AM TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WET DAY FOR THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS...AS SFC LOW PRESSURE CREEPS N-NE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...REACHING THE ILM SC CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE ILM NC CWA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE LOW
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UPPER SUPPORT THAT WILL AID IN DRAWING IN
THE MOISTURE FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC AS SEEN VIA LATEST KLTX VWP. AT
THIS POINT...MODELS INDICATE THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO
REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

AS OF 12Z...LOW PRESSURE TRACKING STEADILY UP THE COAST THIS
MORNING. THE HRRR MODEL DISPLAYS THIS FEATURE FAIRLY WELL...WITH
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS COULD
GUST TO NEAR 30 KTS IN THE STRONGEST CONVECTION...WITH INTERMITTENT
IFR VISIBILITIES. THE INLAND TERMINALS WILL NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CONVECTION...AS MOST OF THE MOISTURE RESIDES ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE LOW. GIVEN ENOUGH HEATING THIS AFTERNOON HOWEVER COULD TRIGGER
SOME MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS INLAND. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL END
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW TRACKS OUT OF THE REGION.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM TUESDAY...HAVE POSTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL
WATERS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF TONIGHT. THIS IN RESPONSE
TO A SFC LOW MOVING N BY NE AND MOVING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE
SC AND NC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING RESPECTIVELY. ENOUGH
OF A TIGHTENED SFC PG DEVELOPS TO PRODUCE S-SW WINDS IN THE 15 TO
25 KT SPEEDS. GUSTS OVER 30 KT REMAINS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH
ANY MIXING FROM ALOFT DOWN TO THE OCEAN SFC OCCURS. LATEST MODELS
AND THE KLTX VWP INDICATE 25 TO 35 KT WINDS JUST OFF THE OCEAN
SFC. THE LOW WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT...
LEAVING A SW-WSW 10-20 KT WIND IN ITS WAKE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 7 FT..WITH THE 7
FOOTERS RESERVED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS OFF CAPE FEAR. THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE SEAS FORECAST CONSIDERING THE 1 TO 3 FOOT UNDERLYING
SE GROUND SWELL AT 10-11 SECOND PERIODS. OVERALL...DOMINANT
PERIODS WILL RUN 7 SECONDS...INDICATIVE OF WIND DRIVEN WAVES
DOMINATING THE SIGNIFICANT SEAS.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ254-256.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ250-252.

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...43

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TO NEAR
GALVESTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR WHARTON TO
GALVESTON...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
APPEARING TO KEEP THE COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIED FOR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE 12Z NAM12 CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LOOKED TO BE DUE TO THE MODEL SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL WATCH TRENDS
AND UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
MODELS (NAM12/GFS) SENDING A BIT OF A MIXED MESSAGE THIS MORNING
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES AT KIAH
THIS AFTN BUT MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN BARE. THOUGHT THE RAP
INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP TODAY. FEEL SHRA
WILL GENERALLY STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND IMPACT
KGLS...KLBX AND KHOU. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 43

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND EVENING UPPER AIR ANALYSIS
SHOWED A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS INTO TEXAS... WITH A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CO/WY AND AN UPPER LOW OVER THE PACIFIC SPINNING ABOUT 800 MILES
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN CA. A PLUME OF VERY MOIST AIR
/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 2.3 TO 2.5 INCHES/ WAS LOCATED OVER
WHARTON... JACKSON... AND MATAGORDA COUNTIES PER GOES SOUNDER
IMAGERY. A FEW EARLY MORNING SHOWERS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP
AROUND MATAGORDA BAY WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND AT LEAST
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING.

AS SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY... THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS WILL
PUSH FARTHER INLAND. THIS... COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
SEA BREEZE... WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO CLEVELAND LINE. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED STRONGER WIND GUST WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS DCAPE VALUES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON... BUT BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
APPEAR TO BE THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD GIVEN THE EXTREMELY MOIST
ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO TOP
OUT IN THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST... WITH MID TO UPPER 90S
FARTHER INLAND. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH OR SLIGHTLY EXCEED
105 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... BUT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING
THE WEEK AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISE. ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A LIMITED COOLDOWN OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW OVER THE
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
BREAKS OUT A FEW SHOWERS FROM COASTAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE BUT ONLY HIGHLIGHTING THIS ACTIVITY WITH SILENT 10 POPS FOR
NOW DUE TO ANTICIPATED LOW COVERAGE. OTHERWISE... ANOTHER HOT DAY
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TODAY. HEAT INDEX
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY... BUT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY BE MET AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST... HOT AND DRY IS PROBABLY THE
BEST WAY TO DESCRIBE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING FARTHER EAST WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE LOW
100S BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE BUILDS
THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NORTH TEXAS AND INTO THE
ARKLATEX BY SATURDAY... WITH THIS FEATURE MAINTAINING CONTROL OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.

HUFFMAN

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WILL PRODUCE A SW-S WIND
TODAY. A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MARINE ZONES TODAY.
THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. 43

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.AVIATION...
MODELS (NAM12/GFS) SENDING A BIT OF A MIXED MESSAGE THIS MORNING
AS FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW PW VALUES EXCEEDING 2.10 INCHES AT KIAH
THIS AFTN BUT MODEL MASS FIELDS REMAIN BARE. THOUGHT THE RAP
INITIALIZED WELL AND HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE RAP TODAY. FEEL SHRA
WILL GENERALLY STAY OVER THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES AND IMPACT
KGLS...KLBX AND KHOU. VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT WITH SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. 43

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 20 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

546 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 531 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING OVER NORTHWEST CARBON COUNTY AND GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST.
THIS FEATURE IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EAST TODAY.
AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER
AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SLOW MOVERS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 GUSTY WEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 35 KTS. OTHERWISE...MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AT THE KRWL TAF SITE THROUGH MID
MORNING UNTIL THE WESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AND HELPS SCOUR OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

900 AM MST TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AND HOTTER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA INTO MID WEEK...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS BACK EAST OF THE AREA...INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM TREND LATER IN THE
WEEK INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. AS THIS HAPPENS TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

.DISCUSSION...THE 12Z KTWC SOUNDING SHOWS A HAPPY ATMOSPHERE WITH
LITTLE INCLINATION TOWARD A NEED TO CORRECT THINGS WITH STRONG
CONVECTION. BELOW AVERAGE MOISTURE WITH 1 INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. CURRENT DRY AND HOT FORECAST
LOOKS SOLID.

AN EXTREMELY UNFAVORABLE RIDGE POSITION AND ORIENTATION OVERHEAD
WITH DECLINING MOISTURE TRENDS NOTED ON CIRA LAYERED PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY EVEN ACROSS NORTHERN SONORA AND NORTHWEST CHIHUAHUA.
HOWEVER...A MORE FAVORABLE MONSOON PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY RETURN
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 05/12Z.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THRU 04/18Z...THEN FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT
AGL...MAINLY EAST OF KTUS THRU 05/05Z. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AGAIN AFT
05/05Z. SFC WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

DATE AUG 04 AUG 05
FCST RCD/YEAR FCST RCD/YEAR
TUCSON INTL AIRPORT 107 109/1994 108 108/2009
FORT THOMAS 105 107/1995 106 109/2009
SAFFORD AG STATION 104 106/2009 105 108/1995

.PREV DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OF
THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING THANKS IN PART TO THE GRADUAL TOP-DOWN
DRYING THAT WE STARTED BACK ON SUNDAY. A LOOK AT THE UPPER-LEVELS
SHOWS AN UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A SW-NE ELONGATED 500
MB RIDGE CENTERED SOMEWHERE JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A 300
MB HIGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA MEXICO. THE RESULTING UPPER-
LEVEL SWLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REINFORCE HIGH LEVEL DRY AIR...WHICH IS
FURTHER BEING AUGMENTED BY WLY/NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE END RESULT
WAS A PWAT VALUE OF 0.93 INCH ON THE 00Z KTWC SOUNDING WITH SIGNS OF
CONTINUED SCOURING OF MOISTURE FROM THE COLUMN ALL THE WAY TO THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER PER THE CIRA LAYERED PW PRODUCTS.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

MEYER
PREV DISCUSSION...CARLAW
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL
CLIMATE...GLUECK

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

240 PM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL BRING LOW CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. DRIER
WEST FLOW RETURNS FOR MID WEEK, THEN AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. FOR THIS WEEKEND,
DRY WEATHER RETURNS WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

.SHORT TERM...

THE BLM REPORTED THAT THE DODGE FIRE IN A REMOTE AREA OF NORTHEAST
LASSEN COUNTY HAD BURNED 3,500 ACRES AS OF NOON TODAY. ZEPHYR WIND
GUSTS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH SHOULD INCREASE SMOKE OUTPUT FROM THE DODGE FIRE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THIS FIRE
MAY REACH THE SURPRISE VALLEY AND NORTHERN WASHOE COUNTY THROUGH
THIS EVENING AS WEST WINDS PREVAIL. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT, SMOKE MAY SPREAD ACROSS GERLACH AND POSSIBLY
AS FAR SOUTH AS LOVELOCK AND PYRAMID LAKE.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEATHER IMPULSE WHICH WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHERN NV THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. HRRR MODEL FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AS FAR SOUTH AS
MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER, TRENDS AND
OPERATIONAL MODELS SHOW MORE ENERGY AND INSTABILITY NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. THE GFS SOLUTION IS PREFERRED WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY NORTH OF A SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK LINE AND
VIRGA/SPRINKLES ALONG THE SIERRA FROM THE TAHOE BASIN SOUTH TO
MONO COUNTY.

THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NV ARE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TYPICAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH EXPECTED. A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED, QUICK
MOVING NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SIERRA.
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT IS THE THREAT
FOR NEW FIRE STARTS.

CURRENT GUIDANCE SHOWS THE UPPER JET CROSSING THE SIERRA OVER THE
TAHOE BASIN THURSDAY EVENING, WHICH WOULD PROVIDE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THESE NOCTURNAL STORMS FROM THE TAHOE BASIN NORTH
ACROSS PLUMAS AND LASSEN COUNTIES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM
AND ABOVE AVERAGE REGARDING THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE PLUME. HOWEVER, SUBTLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
TIMING AND TRACK MAY CHANGE THE LOCATION, INTENSITY AND COVERAGE
OF THE STORM THREAT THURSDAY NIGHT (SO PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE
FORECAST). JCM

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

FOR FRIDAY, WE HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND UPWARD WITH THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES, AS MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE A POTENT UPPER
LOW ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. THE MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN GUIDANCE DATA MAY AFFECT THE AMOUNT AND LOCATION OF
CONVECTION FRIDAY MORNING, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THAT MUCH OF THE
REGION CAN EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WITH
POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS DUE TO FAST CELL MOTION AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES OUTSIDE MAIN PRECIP CORES. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
MORE LIKELY TO INCREASE RATHER QUICKLY AS STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP.
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
BRING AN ELEVATED THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING HAIL, STRONG
OUTFLOW WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. WITH WIDESPREAD OUTDOOR
EVENTS TAKING PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION FRIDAY, PARTICIPANTS
ARE STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO PLAN AHEAD AND ENSURE A QUICK ACCESS TO
SAFE SHELTER BEFORE DANGEROUS STORMS ARRIVE.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, THIS LOW IS PROJECTED TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST
WITH CONVECTION WINDING DOWN. FOR SATURDAY, THERE MAY BE A FEW
AFTERNOON CELLS IN FAR NORTHEAST CA AND NORTHWEST NV NEAR THE OREGON
BORDER, BUT OVERALL A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEST. MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, GENERALLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOWER ELEVATIONS.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY, TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
SIERRA AND WESTERN NV. SCATTERED CIRRUS AND SOME FLAT AFTERNOON
CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY, BUT THUNDERSTORMS ARE UNLIKELY.
TEMPS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS AROUND 90
DEGREES IN LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SUNDAY, AND SHOULD HOLD NEARLY STEADY
THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTERNOON ZEPHYR-TYPE BREEZES WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO EMERGENCE AND SPREAD OF
ANY HOLDOVER LIGHTNING FIRES RESULTING FROM FRIDAY`S THUNDERSTORM
EVENT. MJD

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE MAIN TERMINALS THRU WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PREVAIL WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE PROBABILITY
FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT ANY OF THE MAIN TERMINALS IS LESS THAN 20
PERCENT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND
GERLACH THROUGH TONIGHT. ALSO, AREAS OF SMOKE AND HAZE FROM THE
DODGE FIRE MAY SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST NV AND PRODUCE SOME REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM GERLACH NORTHWARD TO THE OREGON BORDER. ADDITIONAL
SMOKE COULD SPREAD SOUTH TO NEAR PYRAMID LAKE BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

CLOUD COVER LIKELY TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SOME
GUSTS 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS SHORTWAVE PASSES
THROUGH. FOR WEDNESDAY, TYPICAL W-NW ZEPHYR TYPE BREEZES EXPECTED AT
AREA TERMINALS WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25 KT MAINLY BETWEEN 21Z-04Z.
MJD

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SACRAMENTO CA

1015 AM PDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER EARLY THIS WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE
FOR EARLY AUGUST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
A SHORT-WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORCAL TODAY. LATEST HRRR & NAM
MODELS SHOW FORECAST RADAR REFLECTIVITY ACROSS OUR CWA THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, THE REFLECTIVITY DOESN`T LOOK LIKE IT WILL
PRODUCE MUCH RAIN (GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 DBZ)...PERHAPS SOME
SPRINKLES IN THE VALLEY WITH SOME ISOLATED MOUNTAIN
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGE. HAVE MADE A SLIGHT
MODIFICATION TO THIS MORNING`S FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE MENTION
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VALLEY AND CHANGE IT TO SPRINKLES, BUT
WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WITH MUCH OF THE VALLEY IN THE 80S.

THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ALLOWING SHORT-WAVE RIDGING TO BRING WARMER
AND DRIER WEATHER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW APPROACHES
THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AND WILL BRING A RETURN OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPS. THIS LOW IS
BETTER ORGANIZED THAN TODAY`S SHORT-WAVE SO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND COULD ALSO IMPACT
THE VALLEY. JBB

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY LATE AFTERNOON, MUCH OF
THIS SHOULD BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE AREA WITH FLAT RIDGING
DEVELOPING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD
BE BELOW NORMAL.

RIDGING DEVELOPS TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY, WITH DRIER, MORE STABLE
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF SOME
PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHERN SHASTA COUNTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A LOW FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA SLOWLY DROPS DOWN THE
COAST, BUT THE BULK OF IT SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH. WHERE
THIS LOW ENDS UP WILL DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
THE ECMWF SPLITS OF PART OF THE TROUGH AND SENDS IT SOUTHWARD AS A
LOW SITTING OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...WHILE THE GFS
GRADUALLY BRINGS AN UPPER LOW INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL GO
WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW, WITH EITHER POSSIBILITY LIKELY
DELAYING PRECIPITATION INTO MID WEEK. EK

.AVIATION...

DRY WEATHER WITH VFR THIS MORNING. SW WINDS IN THE DELTA HAVE
DECREASED, BUT WILL STREGTHEN AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH PEAK GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KTS. SOME SMOKE NEAR WILDFIRES MAY
LIMIT VISIBILITY. AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. GUSTY, ERRATIC WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH ANY STORMS THAT FORM. EK/JBB
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAUNTON MA

648 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS MAINLY PUSHING E.
CONTINUED STRONG TO SEVERE THREATS. DRY...WARM AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER ARRIVES THURSDAY. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
REGARDING THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY POTENTIAL WET WEATHER.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

INTO THIS EVENING...

STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES THRU THE BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW KICKING
OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN A LINGERING DECENT
ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY. NOT
THINKING AS MUCH UMPF AS EARLIER STORMS...ENVIRONMENT HAS BEEN
WORKED OVER TO SOME DEGREE AND WEAKER/STRETCHED MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH A MORE ZONAL FLOW NOT INVOKING MORE VIGOROUS FORCING AS
THE WAVE EARLIER TODAY. STILL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS
WITH MUCAPES/INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1K J/KG. WHILE A DOWNWARD
TREND IS EVIDENT...STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT A STORM HERE OR THERE
KICKING OFF BUT REMAINING SUB-SEVERE.

THINK THE HRRR HAS THE RIGHT IDEA...FOCUS ALONG THE MA/RI/CT BORDER
WHERE MID-LEVEL ENERGY IS BEING STRETCHED AND ALONG THE N-PERIPHERY
OF DRIER AIR DISCERNED PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THUS LIKELY POPS
FOR THOSE LOCALES...CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR S/CENTRAL CT
AND RI AS WELL AS SE MA INCLUDING THE CAPE/ISLANDS...WELCOMING AS
THEY TOOK THE BRUNT EARLIER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING TROUGH PUSH E SUBSEQUENTLY EASING
THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE ALONG WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND
HIGHER THETA-E AIR. WILL SEE SHOWERS / THUNDERSTORMS PUSH OUT TO SEA
WITH SOME OF THE STORMS STRONG TO SEVERE LINGERING LONGEST OVER THE
CAPE AND ISLANDS WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENT ENVIRONMENT OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR. ANTICIPATED CONCLUSION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT OF
WET- WEATHER. LIGHT W-WINDS PREVAILING AND DRIER AIR WORKING IN.
EXPECT IT TO CLEAR OUT W TO E ACCORDINGLY. LOWS DROPPING IN AND
AROUND THE LOW-60S WITH SPOTS N/W INTO THE UPPER-50S AS THERE IS
AN OPPORTUNITY FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING TO PROCEED. WITH THAT THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS
WHICH OBSERVED RAIN DURING THE DAY.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

WEDNESDAY...

MID-LEVEL IMPULSE SWEEPS THRU THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW FOLLOWED BY
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH. ROBUST FORCING OF AN ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY
DRIER BUT COOLER ALOFT. ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT. WHILE LESSER
INSTABILITY...FREEZING LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BE LOWER. THE MID-LEVEL
ASCENT THROUGH THE COLUMN UPON A BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH IS LIKELY TO
BECOME WELL-MIXED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AS INITIAL CONDITIONS WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY...
SOME THUNDERSTORMS...STORMS IN WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
PERHAPS EVEN A GUSTY WIND THREAT WITH INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS BUT
HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED. WILL GO WITH CHANCE
POPS AS IT IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY WHERE WEATHER WILL
MAKE AN IMPACT. CERTAIN THOUGH THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AWAY FROM THE COAST. A TAD COOLER. HIGHS AROUND THE LOW
80S. SEASONABLE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

BEHIND THE TROUGH IT LOOKS TO REMAIN A BIT BREEZY W. CAN NOT RULE
OUT A FEW LOCALES EXPERIENCING LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE
QUIET WEATHER AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. ALL FACTORS COMBINED...THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING AND HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IS TO
THE N/W WITHIN SHELTERED VALLEY REGIMES. LOWS DOWN INTO THE MID- TO
UPPER-50S WHILE LOW-60S ALONG THE COAST. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S.
AN END TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY AND QUITE REFRESHING.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

HIGHLIGHTS...

* UNSETTLED WEATHER REMAINS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
* TEMPERATURES TRENDING BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST IF NOT THE ENTIRE
PERIOD

OVERVIEW AND MODEL PREFERENCES...

NOTING FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 12Z OPERATIONAL MODELS RUNS INTO
FRIDAY...THEN EACH GOES ON THEIR MERRY OWN WAY WHICH LENDS TO LOW
CONFIDENCE BEYOND FRIDAY. ONE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW THE H5 CUTOFF
LOW ACROSS QUEBEC AND MARITIMES FLATTENS OUT...WHICH ALSO FLATTENS
OUT THE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN STREAM. DEPENDING UPON
WHETHER THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM FLATTENS OUT WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
S THE LARGE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA. ALSO
NOTING A STALLED FRONT S OF THE REGION WHICH HAS A SHORT WAVE MOVING
ALONG IT...WHICH COULD PUSH SOME MOISTURE INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. ANOTHER FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE POSSIBLE
AMPLIFICATION OF LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLC REGION THIS
WEEKEND.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST BEYOND FRIDAY DUE TO THE
WIDE VARIANCE OF OP MODEL RUN SOLUTIONS. WENT ALONG WITH MOST
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE /EXCEPT GFS/ THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN TRANSITIONED
OVER TO AN ENSEMBLE MODEL BLEND SIMILAR TO WPC GUIDANCE FROM
SATURDAY ONWARD.

DETAILS...

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO UPSTATE
NY. WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND...WITH
LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE GENERAL W-NW FLOW...EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGHS LOOK TO RUN AROUND 80 DEGREES...SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...SHORT WAVE MOVING ALONG STALLED
FRONT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. COULD START TO SEE SOME MOISTURE MOVING
NE INTO N CT/RI/SE MA OVERNIGHT THU NIGHT THEN PUSH FURTHER N DURING
FRI. STILL A LOT OF QUESTION ON HOW FAR THIS RAIN WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION...IF AT ALL. FOR NOW...KEPT CONTINUITY GOING FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAINLY CHANCE POPS...THOUGH LOW LIKELY IN
PLACE ACROSS S COASTAL AREAS FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.

HAVE LOWERED POPS TO CHANCE FOR EARLY SATURDAY THEN SHOULD PUSH E
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CONTINUES TO
DEPEND UPON THE FRI-SAT PATTERN SETS UP. AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE
IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. MODELS SIGNALING ANOTHER
H5 LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS EASTERN GREAT LAKES AS H5 LOW
TRYING TO CUT OFF AGAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY. MAY SEE PERIODS OF WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME DURING THIS TIMEFRAME...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT.

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

INTO THIS EVENING...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA/TSRA AROUND THE MA-CT-RI BORDER. SUB-SEVERE. TEMPO MVFR
WITH +RA. SHOULD SEE THIS ACTIVITY DISSIPATE...BEGIN TO REFOCUS SE
OFFSHORE AROUND NANTUCKET INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN OUTFLOW PUSHING S. WINDS SHIFTING SW TO N WITH PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHRA/TSRA LINGER OVER THE FAR SE TERMINALS TILL AROUND 6-9Z.
TEMPO MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS FOCUSED TOWARDS THE CAPE / ISLANDS.
OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AND VFR...THOUGH TERMINALS WHICH EXPERIENCED
RAIN DURING THE DAY MAY SEE MVFR-LIFR PATCHY DENSE FOG.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
SCT SHRA WITH LOWER POSSIBILITY OF TSRA. LOW RISK OF SMALL HAIL.
BREEZY W-WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS. SCT-BKN LOW-END VFR
CIGS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING. VFR. SKC. LOW CONFIDENCE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

KBOS TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACT...BUT UNCERTAIN
ON THE EXACT TIMING.

KBDL TERMINAL...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. WATCHING CLOSELY FOR STORM
IMPACT. STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY HOLD OFF TO THE N.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING...HIGHER
CONFIDENCE ON TRENDS. MVFR-IFR CONDITIONS IN AREAS OF RAIN SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD. VFR BEFORE AND AFTER PERIODS OF RAIN.

SUNDAY...LOW CONFIDENCE MAINLY FOR TIMING. MAY SEE LEFTOVER SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY...THEN VFR.

.MARINE...

FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...

LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

SHORT-TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

TONIGHT...MODERATE CONFIDENCE.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER OVER THE SE WATERS ALONG WITH
BREEZY SW-WINDS. SUBSEQUENT 5-6 FOOT SEAS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH
INTO MORNING AS THE WET-WEATHER AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
OUT TO SEA BEHIND WHICH WINDS BACK W.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS CONTINUING PERHAPS BREEZY WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20 KTS.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY THOUGH LIKELY CLOSER
TO THE SHORE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE.
W-WINDS DIMINISHING ALLOWING SEAS TO RELAX. SHOULD SEE QUIET
BOATING WEATHER.

OUTLOOK /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH CONFIDENCE. WINDS AND SEAS BELOW
SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. LOCALLY REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT RAIN THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MODERATE CONFIDENCE. EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING
UP TO 20 KT. WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SEAS LOOK TO BUILD UP TO 5-6 FT
HIGHEST ACROSS THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS. RAIN LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...LIMITING VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...THEN
SHOULD IMPROVE DURING SUNDAY.

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CT...NONE.
MA...NONE.
RI...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ230>234-236-250-251.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ235-237-
254>256.

SYNOPSIS...SIPPRELL/EVT
NEAR TERM...SIPPRELL
SHORT TERM...SIPPRELL
LONG TERM...EVT
AVIATION...SIPPRELL/EVT
MARINE...SIPPRELL/EVT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

600 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
TONIGHT, WHERE BETTER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD START OUT
THE EVENING. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES, WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL WORK TO TRIGGER
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TOWARD SPRINGFIELD TO MATTOON TONIGHT. THIS
AFTERNOON, SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPED WELL NORTH OF WHERE THE HRRR AND
RAP MODELS INDICATED, SO THE FACT THAT THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT FOR OUR COUNTIES DOES NOT PRECLUDE THAT SHOWERS
REACH AS FAR NORTH AS LINCOLN TO MATTOON AGAIN OVERNIGHT. ONGOING
SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON FROM SPRINGFIELD TO SHELBYVILLE
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THEY PROGRESS EASTWARD. THEREFORE
WILL START OUT THE EVENING GRIDS WILL MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, BUT MAY ADJUST POPS UP AS LATE AFTERNOON
CONDITIONS WARRANT. DESPITE THE DRY HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
TONIGHT, THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS, NAM, ECMWF AND CANADIAN
INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING FOR PRECIP REDEVELOPING ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THEREFORE, HAVE NOT STRAYED FAR FROM THE
CURRENT FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS EXPANDING NORTH TO AREAS SOUTHWEST
OF A LINE FROM CANTON TO LINCOLN TO MATTOON.

LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL VARY BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT
DEVELOPS UNDER LIGHT ENE FLOW. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS HAVE POINTED
TOWARD LOWS TONIGHT GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S NORTH OF I-74, WITH
UPPER 60S IN SOUTH OF I-70, WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE MORE PREVALENT LATER
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WEDNESDAY COULD START OUT WILL A LULL IN THE SHOWERS AS THE
ENERGY FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHIFTS EAST INTO INDIANA. THE
NEXT WAVE OF PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE ADVANCEMENT OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL IL.
THE 12Z MODELS HAVE CONTINUED WITH THE SOUTHWARD TREND OF TRACKING
THE LOW ACROSS IL WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THEY
ALSO CONTINUE TO PROJECT OVERRUNNING SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTERNOON ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, PRECIP CHANCES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-72 WILL RAMP
UP TO LIKELY, WITH CATEGORICAL POPS SOUTH OF I-70 AS THE LOW
PASSES JUST SOUTH OF STATE HWY 50. HEAVY PRECIP REMAINS POSSIBLE
WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-70, AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES CLIMB TO 1.8". WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH, BUT DRY CONDITIONS RECENTLY MAY HELP PREVENT FLASH
FLOODING. ALSO, A DRIER TREND IN THE 12Z MODELS HAS LOWERED
CONFIDENCE IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THURSDAY SHOULD SEE DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW
PULLS AWAY TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WEATHER. RIDGING ALOFT WILL REACH WESTERN IL, WITH HEIGHT RISES
HELPING HIGHS REACH THE LOW 80S.

LOW PRESSURE TRACKING FROM THE DAKOTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON TO EASTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY MORNING COULD DRAG A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN IL LATE FRIDAY INTO FRI EVENING. WE ONLY ACKNOWLEDGED
THAT FEATURE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEST OF I-55 FOR NOW.

THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN THE EXTENDED MODELS THAT AN MCS COULD
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA ON SATURDAY, THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL
IL SAT NIGHT-SUNDAY. THE CANADIAN IS THE NORTHERN OUTLIER WITH THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING IT GENERALLY NORTH OF OUR COUNTIES,
WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH PUSH THE WAVE INTO CENTRAL IL. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT,
WITH DECREASING CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH BUILDS INTO
THE AREA.

HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
90S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 600 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU THIS FORECAST PERIOD. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER FAR SOUTHERN IL WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WITH MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF SPI AND
DEC THRU ABOUT 13Z WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY SHIFTING NORTHEAST
DURING THE MORNING AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. ONCE AGAIN...SURFACE WINDS WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE IF
ANY IMPACT ON OPERATIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS NEARLY
CALM TONIGHT AND TRENDING INTO A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ON WED
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING LESS THAN 10 KTS.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...SMITH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

308 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PROJECTED TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
90S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015
STALLED BOUNDARY TO THE SW AND REGION MAINLY DOMINATED BY CIRRUS
BLOW OFF FROM OVERNIGHT AND CURRENT CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST...SOME MID LEVEL IN SPI AND DEC CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AS THE WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTS SLIGHTLY.
WAVE MOVING INTO THE WEST LIKELY TO IMPACT SPI IN THE SHORT TERM
AND HAVE A TEMPO FOR TS. MAY NEED AN UPDATE FOR DEC SHOULD THE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER. HOWEVER, MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENTLY
ERODING THE STORMS WITH EASTERN PROGRESSION. MODELS VARYING ENOUGH
WITH FUTURE PRECIP TOMORROW MORNING THAT IT IS LEFT OUT OF THE TAF
ALTOGETHER.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SHIMON
LONG TERM...SHIMON
AVIATION...HJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

206 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 05/18Z WITH THE SMALL EXCEPTION OF AREAS
NEAR AND UNDER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP...ALSO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND 05/12-05/14Z OVER PARTS OF DEEP EAST TEXAS WHERE SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 2 KFT ARE POSSIBLE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO SOUTH 5-10 KNOTS. /06/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF WARMING JUST A BIT.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F STILL
LOOK LIKELY. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EASTWARD
PROGRESS IS A COUPLE OF HRS FASTER THAN PROGGED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MADE PRIMARILY TO POPS GRIDS BUT THE
OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE 04/12Z TAF PERIOD.
PERIODS OF CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SE INTO THE REGION TODAY
BUT SHOULD THIN IN TIME...WITH AREAS OF AC LINGERING THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME NE TX/SW AR/SE OK.
CAN/T RULE OUT A WEAK STRATOCU FIELD DEVELOPING AFTER 13Z OVER SE
TX...WHICH MAY AFFECT THE LFK TERMINAL BRIEFLY. OTHERWISE...SHOULD
SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY...WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER SE OK/SW AR AND EVEN
NCNTRL LA...NEAR A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE ERN PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER W TX AND THE DESERT SW. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING...BUT SHOULD
SEE MORE IN THE WAY OF CIRRUS/AC SPREAD ESE INTO THE REGION THIS
EVENING. ANY STRATOCU SHOULD WAIT UNTIL AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY BEFORE
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF E TX/NCNTRL LA. S WINDS 4-7KTS TODAY WILL
BECOME LIGHT S/LT AND VRB AFTER 00Z. /15/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1103 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS ARE WARMING QUICKLY THIS MORNING BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD SLOW THE RATE OF WARMING JUST A BIT.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES F STILL
LOOK LIKELY. BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
ERN OK AND PORTIONS OF N TX JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. EASTWARD
PROGRESS IS A COUPLE OF HRS FASTER THAN PROGGED BY THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SO WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS SE OK/SW AR NORTH OF I-30.

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO MADE PRIMARILY TO POPS GRIDS BUT THE
OVERALL INTEGRITY OF THE FCST WAS LEFT INTACT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT. /09/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 444 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

1014 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...

NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING IS CREATING A VERY FAVORABLE HEAVY RAIN PATTERN
FOR SOUTHERN MONTANA AND NORTHERN WYOMING TODAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 1.25 INCHES AND SLOW STORM MOVEMENT COMBINED
WITH PERSISTENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY STORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY FROM
BILLINGS EAST WHERE FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE INCREASING.
ALREADY HAVE A FLASH FLOOD WARNING OUT FOR BIG HORN COUNTY WITH
A PERSISTENT LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THERE. AS A MID LEVEL
IMPULSE WORKS IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON WILL SEE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WORK ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE
LATE EVENING. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION VALUES OF .2 TO .5 INCHES
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH LOCALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH STRONGER
STORMS. SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS TODAY ALONG
WITH WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH...BUT THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTENSE LIGHTNING.

ADDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN WEST TO INCLUDE BILLINGS AND ROUNDUP.
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS MORNING WITH AN EARLY START
TO CONVECTION. NO CHANGE TO GOING FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS IT IS
LOCATED IN THE MOST FAVORABLE POSITION FOR STRONG SLOW MOVING
STORMS...HOWEVER AS WE HAVE SEEN ALREADY IN BIG HORN COUNTY WE
CAN`T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FURTHER WEST INCLUDING THE
BILLINGS AREA TODAY. CHAMBERS

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND WED...

THE PATTERN HAS TURNED FROM HOT AND DRY TO COOLER AND MORE
UNSETTLED. THE HOT UPPER RIDGE OF THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BEEN
PUSHED EAST BY AN ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS WESTERN ZONES THIS MORNING...CENTRAL
ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STRONGEST ENERGY WILL SLIDE ACROSS WYOMING...BUT THE
NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE TROUGH STRETCHED TO SOUTHERN CANADA...SO
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE FOR CONVECTION. AS FAR
AS MOISTURE IS CONCERNED...PWATS WERE ADVERTISED AT 1.5 INCHES
OVER THE EAST. THIS IS 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST WINDS HAVE BROUGHT DEWPOINTS UP INTO THE 50S
OVER THE EAST. STORMS WILL FORM THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
ZONES...SPREAD IN CENTRAL ZONES LATE MORNING INTO EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN FORM OVER THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...LESS THAN 30KTS...SO SEVERE NOT A HUGE
CONCERN...OTHER THAN MICROBURST WINDS WITH COLLAPSING CELLS. WEAK
SHEAR AND STEERING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SLOW MOVING PULSING CELLS
THAT WILL HAVE HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL RATES OVER THE EAST. THE
VERY HEAVY RAIN STORMS MAY EVEN BE AS FAR WEST AS BIG HORN AND
EASTERN YELLOWSTONE COUNTY WITH PWATS AROUND AN INCH. HRRR HAS
CELLS GOING UP OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN COUNTY AND SOUTHERN BIG HORN
COUNTY AROUND NOON AND THEN DEVELOPS UNORGANIZED CONVECTION
FARTHER EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN
EFFECT.

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...MON...

A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THIS
MORNING...MAINLY CENTERED AROUND TIMING OF THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM
EXITING THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL MAKE DIFFICULT FLIGHT CONDITIONS AT TIMES
INTO THIS EVENING. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CREATE MVFR TO LOCAL
IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THIS ACTIVITY EAST THIS EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. CHAMBERS
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY WED THU FRI SAT SUN MON
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 079 059/084 058/085 056/083 057/085 058/083 059/089
6/T 34/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/B
LVM 077 053/080 050/081 049/083 051/081 052/080 052/086
6/T 35/T 52/T 11/B 13/T 44/T 32/T
HDN 084 056/087 057/087 054/085 055/088 057/085 057/091
7/T 43/T 52/T 11/B 12/T 22/T 21/U
MLS 089 059/088 061/086 058/084 057/086 060/083 059/090
7/T 82/T 54/T 11/B 13/T 33/T 31/B
4BQ 088 058/088 059/085 057/083 057/085 059/084 058/089
7/T 72/T 52/T 21/U 12/T 33/T 31/B
BHK 088 058/086 059/082 056/081 054/083 057/080 056/085
4/T 82/T 44/T 22/W 12/T 44/T 32/T
SHR 079 052/086 054/083 052/083 054/085 055/082 054/088
6/T 43/T 52/T 11/U 13/T 32/T 21/U

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ZONES
31>33-36-37-58.
WY...NONE.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

AT 20Z THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WAS HIGHLIGHTED BY UPPER LEVEL LOWS
CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY IN SOUTHEAST CANADA AND ALONG WEST COAST
OF BRITISH COLUMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS ESTABLISHED IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A ROBUST MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLOWLY
TRACKING BENEATH THE RIDGE THROUGH CENTRAL WYOMING HAS BEEN THE
MAIN PLAYER IMPACTING THE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE CWA FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO EASTERN CO...A STATIONARY TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWARD
TOWARD THE BLACK HILLS...AND A WARM FRONT DRAPED SOUTHEAST ACROSS
FAR SOUTHWEST NEB INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
SURFACE WINDS HAVE HAD AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE COMPONENT FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...ADVECTING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ONGOING NORTH OF THE FRONT FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY...MAINLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

DEEP CONVECTION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY HAS MUDDLED THE
FORECAST PICTURE. HI-RES MODELS THIS MORNING ADVERTISED A
NORTHERLY PROGRESSION OF THE WARM FRONT TOWARD I-80. HOWEVER
CLOUD COVER AND COLD OUTFLOW FROM PERSISTENT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA HAS HAMPERED THIS NORTHWARD
ADVANCEMENT OF THE FRONT...AND IT HAS REMAINED STALLED NEAR THE
KANSAS BORDER FOR MOST OF THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW VEERING
WIND PROFILE NORTH OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL KEEP SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING ACROSS THE CWA INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
NEBRASKA. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE VICINITY OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY STALLED OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA WHERE MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASING MOISTURE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WITH THE HRRR MODEL RECENTLY PICKING UP ON
THIS IDEA AS WELL. STEERING FLOW ALOFT IS RATHER WEAK...SO SLOW
STORM MOTIONS WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
GIVEN PWATS AOA 1.5".

PRECIP CHANCES BEGIN TO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY KICKS EAST AND THE INSTABILITY
WANES WITH THE WEAKENING WAA REGIME JUST OFF THE SURFACE. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND AS MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
JUST OFF TO OUR WEST...WHICH KEEP LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN PLACE. BOTH THE NAM/GFS SHOW
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG/STRATUS IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA LATE IN THE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. POPS PUSH EAST OF THE AREA BY
NOON WEDNESDAY AND CLEARING SKIES PROGRESS EASTWARD. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S IN NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHERE SOME CLOUD COVER WILL HANG AROUND INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...TO THE LOW 90S IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED. LATEST NAM/EC GUIDANCE HAVE TRENDED COOLER
FOR TOMORROW AND KEEPS MORE CLOUD COVER AROUND...SO THIS TREND
WILL NEED TO MONITORED INTO TONIGHT. HAVE BEEN HESITANT TO MAKE
LARGE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION
THAT NEEDS TO PLAY OUT IN THE NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CANADA WED NIGHT AND
SUPPRESS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AS A RESULT THE FLOW
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL. THE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO END THE WEEK. AS THE TROUGH SLIDES
EAST THE SOUTHERN RIDGE WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE
RIDGE TO AMPLIFLY OVER THE ROCKIES.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. AS WE SHIFT FROM
NORTHWEST FLOW TO MORE ZONAL AND BACK...THE TRAIN OF SHORT WAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS. THUS THE FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE POPS IN NEARLY EVERY PERIOD...HOWEVER DO NOT
EXPECT A WASH OF A FORECAST. AS THE WAVES MOVE ACROSS A CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL EXIST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE AFTERNOON NOON INTO THE
LATE EVENING HOURS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...SEASONAL IS THE BEST WAY TO EXPLAIN. IF
SHOWERS ARE OCCURING DURING THE PEAK HEAT...TEMPS MAY HOLD IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S...OTHERWISE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S WILL BE COMMON.
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH A FEW LOCALLY COMMON COOL SPOTS TO
SEE A FEW LOWS DIP INTO THE UPPER 50S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD FOCUS ON TSRA
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY AND THIS EVENING...THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR IFR OR LOWER CIGS/VISBYS OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS OF 1730Z THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHERE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL MAY REDUCE
VISBYS TO LESS THAN 3SM AT TIMES. OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...INCLUDING THE KLBF
TERMINAL...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. GUSTY
ERRATIC WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE
STORMS. FURTHER NORTH...LESS WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP IN THE KVTN TAF TO
HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY TIMING....GENERALLY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

ATTENTION TONIGHT TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CIGS/VISBYS.
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND
IFR CIGS/VISBYS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED INTO THE TAF AT KLBF.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...MARTIN
SHORT TERM...MARTIN
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...MARTIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

100 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 955 AM TUESDAY...

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 350 AM TUESDAY...

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 410 AM TUESDAY...

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 100 PM TUESDAY...

OF MOST IMMEDIATE CONCERN TO AVIATION INTERESTS ARE THE BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN OF
NC... AN OUTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH POTENT
LOW PRESSURE NOW JUST OFF THE NRN SC COAST NEAR MYR. AS THIS LOW
TRACKS TO THE NE JUST OFF THE SRN NC COAST AND SRN OUTER BANKS
THROUGH EARLY EVENING... WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLATED CELLS
NEAR RWI/FAY AND PERHAPS NEARING RDU AS WELL. BRIEF MVFR TO HIGH-END
IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE... ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED STORMS MAY IMPACT INT/GSO LATE AFTERNOON... PERHAPS
REACHING RDU BY EARLY EVENING BEFORE FIZZLING OUT BY MID EVENING AS
THEY PROGRESS TO THE EAST. LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH AND MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR THESE SHOWERS/STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD THEN DOMINATE INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS... BUT MVFR FOG
IS POSSIBLE AT RWI/FAY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT... LIFTING/DISSIPATING BY
14Z WED MORNING.

LOOKING BEYOND 18Z WED... MUCH OF WED SHOULD BE DRY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING... THEN THE WEATHER BECOMES MORE
ACTIVE AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WNW
AND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION WED EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING.
WHILE VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THIS
PERIOD... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED AT
ANY TIME... ESPECIALLY LATE THU AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...
AND SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY OF THESE SHOWERS
AND STORMS... WITH POSSIBLE SUB-VFR STRATUS AND FOG BETWEEN BOUTS OF
RAIN. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FRI AFTERNOON
THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. -GIH

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...26/HARTFIELD
NEAR TERM...HARTFIELD/26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...22
AVIATION...HARTFIELD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

642 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THURSDAY LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST TO NEW ENGLAND.
FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK TOWARD OHIO AS THE LOW MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
JUST MINOR CHANGES. BACKED OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS...FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN
QUEBEC NEAR HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA. AT THE SURFACE A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE
AREA BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
MAINLY DUE TO HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN
OHIO OR NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP
OVERNIGHT REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG
CHANGE BUT BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE.
WILL HAVE A CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA
DROPPING TO A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO
NEAR 60.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. CONCERNED ABOUT ANY ONGOING SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
LAKESHORE EAST OF KCLE AT FIRST BUT THAT SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY
THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE AIRMASS MIXES. OTHERWISE EXPECT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE DAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST AND NORTH OVER
THE LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO SOUTHERN IL. MODELS A LITTLE CLOSER
WITH THE SOLUTION VS YDAY WITH MORE OF A CONSENSUS OF MOST OF THE
PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO. WILL BRING A CHANCE POP
INTO THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING BUT THIS
COULD END UP TOO HIGH GIVEN TRENDS. FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK IN FROM THE NORTH. AFTERNOON TEMPS MOSTLY IN THE 70S WED-
THURS AND CLOSER TO 80 FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE BROAD RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL START TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE THE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AROUND THE RIDGE WILL TAKE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF LAKE ERIE ON SATURDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
GENERALLY REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. WESTERLY FLOW
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION WILL SET UP BEHIND THIS FEATURE WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S ON SUNDAY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FROM SUNDAY TO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF ACTIVE WAVES
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AHEAD OF
THE DEEPENING TROUGH TO THE NORTH. WILL CARRY A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT ON AS MOISTURE INCREASES. KEPT
HIGHS CLOSE TO 80 GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. SCT CLOUDS
NEAR 5K FEET WILL BECOME BROKEN AT SEVERAL SITES THIS EVENING AS A
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT ERI THIS
EVENING BUT CHANCES ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WESTERLY WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
18 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TONIGHT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL WEAKEN AS THEY VEER TO NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST WILL BUILD OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOPING. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
EXPANDS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CLEVELAND OH

351 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN QUEBEC NEAR
HUDSON BAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK IMPULSE
MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH MODELS
SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
ACROSS NRN OHIO BUT MOSTLY NWRN PA. AT THE SURFACE A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE LAKE AND REACH INTO THE AREA
BEFORE DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING MAINLY DUE TO
HEATING. OVERNIGHT HOWEVER AM CONCERNED THAT A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORT WAVE THAT MOVE INTO NERN OHIO OR
NWRN PA. IN ADDITION...850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT
REACHING +9 TO +10C BY 12Z VC +13C TODAY. NOT A BIG CHANGE BUT
BUFKIT DOES SHOW CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO THE LAKE. WILL HAVE A
CHANCE POP THIS EVENING FAR NERN OHIO AND NWRN PA DROPPING TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT. LOWS FROM THE MID 50S TO NEAR 60.

OUTLOOK...NON VFR WEATHER POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...KEC
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...KEC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

326 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE 1 LAST DAY OF LITTLE OR NO CONVECTION.
MODELS DID A GOOD JOB WITH THE MOISTURE ENHANCEMENT TO OUR NORTH
WHERE THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY RESIDES. CURRENTLY WE ARE SEEING ISOL
TO SCT CONVECTION ACROSS KY.

GOING FORWARD...MODELS HINGING ON AN AREA OF MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN
OK. GFS AND HRRR SOLUTIONS CARRY THIS SYSTEM OUR WAY AND ACTUALLY
BRING IN SOME CONVECTION ACROSS OUR NW NEAR 12Z. NAM IS DELAYING THE
ONSET OF MOISTURE UNTIL TOMORROW NIGHT. FOR THE FCST...WILL LEAN
TOWARD A BLEND AND INCLUDE DESCENT POPS FOR WED THROUGH THU. AN
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTH...WHICH WILL BE WORKING SLOWLY NORTHWARD THROUGH THU.

TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH THU NT LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL RANGE FROM
1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES NW TO AROUND 1/2 INCH SE. AS FOR CONVECTIVE
STRENGTH...THE NAM MODEL LOOKS RATHER POTENT ON THU AS A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND LINEAR OMEGA FIELDS MATCH UP
WITH A 40 KT LLJ AND RESPECTABLE CAPES. THE GFS HOWEVER IS FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY AND THE SITUATION LOOKS UNSTABLE. FUTURE
MODELS WILL HOPEFULLY SORT THIS OUT.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ITS BEEN QUITE HOT TODAY...HIGHS HAVE
REACHED WELL INTO THE 90S. QUITE THE DISCREPANCY WITH THE HIGH TEMP
GUIDANCE FOR WEDNESDAY. MET SUGGESTS 92F FOR BNA AND THE MAV
SUGGESTS 80F. THIS WILL LARGELY HINGE ON THE DEGREE OF MOISTURE THAT
ARRIVES TOMORROW. WILL OPT TO BLEND BUT TREND TOWARD THE GFS AND GO
WITH A HIGH OF 84F. THU WILL AGAIN FEATURE BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPS
AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH.

IN THE EXT FCST...THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE WILL EXIT AND THE
TYPICAL NW FLOW REGIME WILL RESUME. DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW
LOOK HIT/MISS. NO OVERLY APPRECIABLE MOISTURE LEVELS ARE INDICATED.
THEREFORE...WILL CONTINUE THE THEME OF LOW POPS FOR THE EXTENDED
PERIOD.

FOR THE EXT TEMPS...VALUES WILL RETURN INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS.
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FETCH WILL KEEP HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE AND
THUS...LOW TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 74 84 70 85 / 10 40 60 70
CLARKSVILLE 72 83 69 83 / 20 50 70 70
CROSSVILLE 70 84 67 80 / 10 40 60 80
COLUMBIA 73 87 70 87 / 10 30 60 70
LAWRENCEBURG 72 87 69 87 / 10 40 60 70
WAVERLY 73 84 69 84 / 20 50 70 70

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

338 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A SEA BREEZE MOVED INLAND EARLIER
TODAY. A MORE MOIST AIRMASS WAS REFLECTED BY PW/S UP TO AROUND 2.0
INCHES AS SEEN ON THE SPC RAP OUTPUT. IN ADDITION TO THE SURFACE
BOUNDARIES...THE NAM12 AND RAP13 BOTH SHOWED WEAK VORTICITY
ADVECTION MOVING OVERHEAD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINATION
HAS GENERATED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AM
EXPECTING THE ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET.

REGARDING RAIN CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
EVEN SO...THE NAM12 AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW ISOLATED RAIN
CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SINCE THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...DECIDED TO GO WITH A 15
PERCENT RAIN CHANCE AND MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO MONDAY OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.

THE MAIN ISSUE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE BUILDING
HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS. THE GUIDANCE AND RAW MODEL OUTPUT WERE
FORECASTING ACTUAL DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE INLAND
COUNTIES AS HIGH AS 99 TO 102 IN SOME PLACES WELL INLAND THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE HEAT INDEX MAY REACH 103 TO 108 OVER SOME LOCATIONS
ON WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THEN MAY POSSIBLY EXCEED 108 FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE MODEL TRENDS AS THE
WEEK PROGRESSES.

.AVIATION...
KEPT MENTION OF PCPN FOR MOST SITES FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTN GIVEN
THE TRENDS. MODELS INDICATING THAT THESE HIGH PWS (JUST OVER 2") TO
PERSIST THRU TOMORROW AFTN SO WE COULD SEE A REPEAT OF TODAY. BRIEF
MVFR CIGS NOTED FOR SOME SITES THIS MORNING. 41

.MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH AFTN FCST PACKAGE FOR THE MARINE ZONES AS
THE CURRENT WX PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE. THE LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VARIATIONS. ISO/WIDELY SCT POSSIBLE
EARLY TOMORROW GIVEN THE LINGERING DEEPER MOISTURE. 41

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 77 99 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 78 97 79 98 79 / 10 20 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 83 92 83 91 83 / 10 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

123 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO TWEAK RAIN CHANCES. SPC WRF WAS ANALYZING 1.8 TO
2 INCH PW/S ACROSS THE I-10 AND SOUTHWARD CORRIDOR. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WERE ACCOMPANYING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD. RADAR AT 1130 AM SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDED ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN GULF TO NEAR
GALVESTON THIS MORNING. RADAR SHOWED THAT SHOWERS WERE TRYING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM NEAR WHARTON TO
GALVESTON...HOWEVER SUBSIDENCE DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS
APPEARING TO KEEP THE COVERAGE VERY ISOLATED. MODEL GUIDANCE
VARIED FOR COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON...FROM ONLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR STORM TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE 12Z NAM12 CONTINUED ITS
TREND OF BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE CLOSE TO THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.
THIS LOOKED TO BE DUE TO THE MODEL SHOWING A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

FOR NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL WATCH TRENDS
AND UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

1134 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED POPS FURTHER NORTHWARD. RADAR AT 1130 AM SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING WEST AND NORTHWEST OF METRO HOUSTON.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

FOR NOW...THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. WILL WATCH TRENDS
AND UPDATE LATER THIS MORNING OR INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON IF
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

HUFFMAN

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 99 77 99 / 20 10 10 10 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 97 78 97 79 98 / 40 10 10 10 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 92 82 92 82 91 / 20 10 10 10 10

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1153 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 151 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES AS WE HEAD INTO
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN
THE NORTHERN NE PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ELSEWHERE WITH MINIMAL IMPACTS TO
AVIATION. AFTER 06Z... FOG MAY DEVELOP INTO THE WESTERN NE
PANHANDLE ESPECIALLY IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY. THE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT AROUND 15Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...REC
AVIATION...CLH/KC
FIRE WEATHER...GCC