Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 08/03/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
335 AM MST SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY TO BRING A CHANCE OF
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. THEREAFTER A DRYING TREND WILL OCCUR WHICH WILL
RESULT IN MORE ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED
MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON.
&&
.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE AS OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CONTINUES TO THIN. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM AROUND THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING SHOW
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S F...MORE OR LESS UNCHANGED
FROM 24 HOURS AGO (PERHAPS A SHADE DRIER)...WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 71 F
DEWPOINT AT KPHX THANKS IN PART TO EARLIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE
CIRA PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT SHOWS THAT WE`RE STILL QUITE MOIST
THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN...WITH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.3-1.4
INCHES NEAR TUCSON AND A TOUCH HIGHER TO THE WEST.
ALOFT...LATEST ANALYSES REVEAL A PRETTY CHAOTIC UPPER-AIR
PATTERN...WITH SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS STRUNG OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE TRANS-PECOS REGION OF TEXAS.
WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A LOCAL ENHANCEMENT TO THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW
PUNCHING INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND GULF OF
CALIFORNIA...WHICH IS BACKED-UP BY THE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS. THE NOSE
OF THIS SUBTLE JET STREAK MAY PLAY A ROLE IN INITIATING CONVECTION
LATER TODAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
SOME ISSUES TO CONTEND WITH FOR TODAY`S FORECAST REVOLVE AROUND
SLIGHTLY WARMER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES...POSSIBLE ISSUES WITH ANVIL
SHADING OWING TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW...AND THE
WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS OFFERED UP BY VARIOUS CONVECTIVE ALLOWING
MODELS. HOWEVER...BOTH THE 05Z RUN OF THE HRRRX (EXPERIMENTAL HRRR)
AND THE 00Z UNIV. OF AZ WRF-NAM SOLUTIONS PAINT A FAIRLY SIMILAR
PICTURE FOR TODAY...WITH THE MAIN CONVECTIVE FOCUS ACROSS PARTS OF
PINAL...PIMA...AND SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES AND GENERALLY MORE ISOLATED
COVERAGE OUT EAST. THESE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY LINE UP WITH THE RECENT
RUNS OF THE NAM/GFS WHICH SHOW THE BEST INSTABILITY LINING UP FROM
TUCSON AND POINTS WEST...EFFECTIVELY WITHIN THE ZONE OF HIGHER PW
AIR AS MENTIONED EARLIER.
FOR SUNDAY AND BEYOND...THE GENERAL PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A
RE-ORGANIZATION PHASE AS THE UPPER-HIGH RECONSOLIDATES...EVENTUALLY
NEAR THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION BY THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEAN TIME...SOUTHWESTERLY OR WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL USHER
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL RESULT IN MARKEDLY REDUCED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PARTICULARLY BY TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...MORE
FAVORABLE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BEGIN TO PUMP
MOISTURE...AND AS A RESULT SOMEWHAT BETTER SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE...BACK INTO THE REGION. THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE THAT IS THE
MONSOON 2015 CONTINUES...
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/12Z.
DECREASING CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING. SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL
RE-DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE-MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA
DEVELOPING AFTER 01/19Z. THE GREATEST COVERAGE TODAY LOOKS TO OCCUR
NEAR THE KTUS AND KOLS TERMINALS AND NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN NORTHEAST
OF KSAD. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 40 KTS
POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. OUTSIDE OF STORM
INFLUENCES SFC WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL LINGER TODAY FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE FROM NEAR TUCSON AND POINTS WEST. THEN...MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT
WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
CARLAW
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TUCSON AZ
927 PM MST FRI JUL 31 2015
.SYNOPSIS...ALTHOUGH SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAIN TOPS.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A DISTURBANCE TRACKING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA
CONTINUED TO HELP SUSTAIN THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATE
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SOLUTION INDICATED THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE DISTURBANCE LIFTS FARTHER NORTH.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATED A DOWNWARD TREND IN THE
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. CURRENT FORECAST WAS SHOWING THESE
TRENDS...SO NO UPDATES NECESSARY THIS EVENING. PLEASE REFER TO THE
ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR MORE DETAILS.
&&
.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO BKN CLOUDS 7-10K FT AGL WITH SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA GENERALLY
BEFORE 01/10Z. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO 45
KTS POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THE STRONGER TSRA. AREAS OF BLDU PSBL W
AND NW OF KTUS AFT 31/22Z. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCES SFC WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 12 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. SHRA/TSRA WILL OCCUR AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE THAN TODAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...SATURDAY WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LESS SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...WITH A FOCUS MAINLY SOUTH
AND EAST OF TUCSON. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS...20-FT WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH. HOWEVER SOME
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS IS LIKELY DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE GILA VALLEY NEAR SAFFORD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING UP
FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS EVENING
AND THEN OVER SOUTHWEST ARIZONA EARLY SATURDAY AND WESTERN ARIZONA
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THAT SAID...SATURDAY WE SHOULD SEE LESS
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE OVER SRN NEVADA LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE A BIT LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR INTO THE EVENING.
BY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND WEDNESDAY THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO RECONSOLIDATE IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO AND THEN MOVE NORTH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BY
TUESDAY. AS A RESULT...DRIER SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL REDUCE RAIN
CHANCES A BIT AND KEEP THE BEST THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY BETWEEN NOGALES AND DOUGLAS AS WELL AS THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR LATE WEEK THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE EAST AND RESULT IN A
RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AND PULL IN MORE MOISTURE
AND INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...BUT STILL JUST ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE.
FOR TUCSON...HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY...THEN 4 TO 7 DEGS
ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE WARMEST DAY WILL
LIKELY OCCUR TUESDAY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
EACH MORNING. HOWEVER...THE COOLEST MORNINGS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
241 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015
...TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES ON SUNDAY...
FAIRLY TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE OVER SE CO. WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME CIRCULATING CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH CENTERED
OVER NM...BEST T-STORM COVERAGE CONTINUES TO BE OVER WRN AND SRN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA. NEWLY OPERATIONAL RADAR IN THE SAN JUANS SHOWS
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE SW MTS...JUSTIFYING LIKELY POPS FOR
THE BALANCE OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVE. MORE QUESTIONABLE
WHETHER STORMS WILL SURVIVE MOVING ONTO THE SERN PLAINS E OF I-
25...BUT ISOLD POPS LOOK APPROPRIATE THERE. TEMPS CONTINUE TO BE
IN THE LOWER 90S FOR THE PLAINS...70S FOR THE HIGH VALLEY AREAS.
EXPECT MOST OF THE T-STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AFTER SUNSET...HOWEVER
LATEST HRRR AND OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONTINUED ISOLD ACTIVITY
OVER THE SW MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS...SO WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST
LOW POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR THIS AREA. SOME MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL
SUPPORT LOW CLOUDS OR POSSIBLY EVEN SOME FOG FOR THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
IF SUFFICIENT PRECIP CAN FALL THIS AFTERNOON OR EVE.
TOMORROW...MORE OF THE SAME...BUT A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH
NW FLOW ON THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COULD SPARK A FEW MORE
STORMS THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SERN
MTS. SFC WINDS SHIFT TO A STRONGER UPSLOPE COMPONENT SUN
AFTERNOON... WHICH WILL KEEP THE BEST FORCING FOR STORMS ANCHORED
ALONG THE MTS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
TEMPS AGAIN SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER THE PLAINS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SUN NIGHT AN UPR TROF IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN
REGION AND ACRS CO. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROF
MOVING INTO THE SERN CORNER OF CO OVERNIGHT AND INTO MON
MORNING...BUT THEY DISAGREE ON ITS IMPACT. BOT MODELS SHOW PCPN
CONTINUING THRU THE NIGHT OVR THE CONTDVD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE ERN MTNS. FOR FAR ERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...THE NAM HAS MAINLY SOME ISOLD PCPN OVR THE SERN
CORNER THRU THE NIGHT AND MON MORNING...BUT THE GFS HAS MORE
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OVR THE SERN PLAINS. SINCE THERE IS A DISTURBANCE
IN THE AREA...WL KEEP SOME ISOLD POPS ACRS THE SERN PLAINS THRU THE
NIGHT. THRU THE DAY MON...THAT UPR TROF CONTINUES WORKING ITS WAY
NORTHEASTWARD INTO ID...WY AND NERN CO. THE GFS AND NAM HAVE SCT
PCPN OVR THE HYR TRRN ON MON...WHILE THE NAM IS MAINLY DRY OVR THE
SERN PLAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE GFS HINTS AT
ISOLD TO SCT PCPN. MON NIGHT THE NAM SHOWS PCPN ACRS THE FORECAST
AREA ENDING BY LATE EVENING...BUT THE GFS CONTINUES PCPN OVR THE FAR
ERN BORDER AREA INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.
TUE AN UPR RIDGE BUILDS OVR THE AREA AND REMAINS IN PLACE ON
WED...WHICH WL KEEP THE MONSOON MSTR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SO...DRIER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THERE MAY STILL
BE ENOUGH MSTR OVR THE AREA FOR A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING MTN AREA
SHOWERS/TSTMS. ON THU A DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACRS
WY...THEN PUSHING A FRONT THRU ERN CO. THE ECMWF DEVELOPS AND MCS
OVR ERN FOR THU NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS DOES NOT AND LEAVES THE AREA
RATHER DRY. FOR NOW WL GO WITH THE DRY SOLUTION AND SEE HOW THE
SITUATION DEVELOPS.
FRI THE UPR RIDGE WL BE CENTERED TO THE SOUTH OF CO. THE ECMWF
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE MORE MSTR TO WORK ITS WAY BACK
TOWARD CO...BUT THE GFS IS STILL FAIRLY DRY THROUGH SAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015
MAIN AVN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE TS POTENTIAL AT THE TAF SITES...AT
LEAST THROUGH ABOUT 02-03Z THIS EVE AT KCOS AND KPUB. COULD SEE A
FEW MORE STORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT
AS THE MONSOON REMAINS ACTIVE OVER NERN AZ AND NW NM. DEPENDING ON
EXTENT OF PRECIP...SOME LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR KALS OR VC
EARLY SUN MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOST OF SE CO. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
943 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BRIEFLY BUILD IN FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT WILL BRING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 943 AM EDT...UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TODAY. THE FIRST PUSH OF
POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION HAS MOVED THROUGH THE REGION EARLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. THESE RAIN
SHOWERS HAVE NOW PUSHED INTO NEW ENGLAND...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS
OVER THE CWA FOR THE TIME BEING. MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
3KM HRRR...SHOWS THAT SOME MORE CELLULAR ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP
DURING PEAK HEATING LATER TODAY.
THE STEEPEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GENERALLY BE NORTH OF THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION IN THE 6.5-6.8 C/KM RANGE. H500
TEMPS WILL FALL CLOSE TO -14C TO -16C FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
NORTH. THE INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE THE BIGGEST QUESTION TODAY
FOR ANY SUSTAINED CONVECTION...WITH THE NAM STILL PAINTING SBCAPE
VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH SOME GREATER POCKETS...WHILE THE GFS
IS IN THE 100-500 J/KG RANGE WITH THE GREATER SBCAPES NORTH. 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE IN THE 30-45 KT RANGE...BUT THE BETTER
SHEAR IS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE BETTER INSTABILITY. THE BETTER
SHEAR IS SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION. SFC DEWPTS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 50S WITH SPOTTY 60F READINGS. IT APPEARS A FEW MULTI-
CELLS/CELLULAR CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...BUT FOR ANY STRONG TALLER
UPDRAFTS...MORE INSTABILITY WOULD NEED TO BE UTILIZED. CAN NOT
RULE OUT A ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE CELL TO THE NORTH...BUT ANY
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD POOL/STEEPER LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD PEA TO
PERHAPS DIME/PENNY SIZE HAIL. THE MARGINAL RISK FURTHER DOWNSTREAM
OUTSIDE OF THE ALY FCST AREA ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND LOOKS ON TRACK
FROM SPC.
AS SEEN IN THE LATEST 3KM HRRR GUIDANCE...THE CHANCE FOR ISOLD
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOWARDS NOON AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGH TEMPS
GETTING INTO THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...EXCEPT FOR THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY/SRN LITCHFIELD CTY WHERE SOME MID/U80S ARE
POSSIBLE. U60S TO U70S WILL BE COMMON OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...ANY LEFTOVER CELLULAR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
QUICKLY DIMINISH BTWN 6-9 PM WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD STABILIZE...AND THE CLOUDS WILL
THIN. THERE MAYBE BE PATCHY FOG WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS...AND ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION...SRN VT...BERKSHIRES...NEAR
THE CT RIVER VALLEY...AND DOWN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY. THE
DECOUPLING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES WILL ALSO PROMOTE SHALLOW
RADIATIONAL MIST OR FOG. LOWS WERE FAVORED WITH A BLEND OF THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH M50S TO AROUND 60F IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME U40S TO L50S IN THE SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS...AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN DACKS...BERKS...NRN
TACONICS...AND SRN VT.
SUNDAY...THE SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT FOR A DRY CLOSE
TO THE WEEKEND WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
VIRGINIAS. THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS FROM ZONAL TO
SOUTHWESTERLY...AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
APPROACHING. THE WEAK LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW H850
TEMPS TO RISE BACK TO +15C TO +17C. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS WITH DECENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DUE TO THE SW FLOW
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND MID 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS SW QUEBEC. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL-ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL BE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST.
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC POPS WERE PLACED IN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NW/W
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT/HUDSON VALLEY. LOWS WILL BE MILDER THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT WITH U50S TO M60S OVER THE REGION.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...INCLEMENT WEATHER RETURNS WITH THE COLD
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION POTENTIALLY DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH INCREASING SFC
DEWPTS INTO THE 60S. SBCAPES MAY BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE WITH
INCREASING BULK VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SHORT-WAVE.
DECENT HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BE OCCURRING ALOFT WITH THE FRONT. THE
GFS HAS MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE 6.5-7C/KM RANGE OVER THE FCST
AREA BY THE PM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS
PLACED THE ENTIRE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3.
SOME LOCALLY HVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOO AS PWATS RISE
BACK TO THE 1.25-1.50 INCH RANGE. CHC AND LIKELY POPS HAVE BEEN
USED FOR MONDAY...AND TAPERED TO CHC POPS AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO U80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND M70S TO
L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT WILL BE IN THE M50S
TO M60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LARGE CLOSED OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE
NEXT WEEK. THE LOW IS EXPECTED MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA
AS SHORT WAVES ROTATE ABOUT IT.GUIDANCE IS NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH
THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES AND THEIR INFLUENCE ON
THE LOW. HOWEVER THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE ZONAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK.
HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY WITH THE TIMING OF SYSTEMS. BASED ON THIS...A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY WITH THE BOUNDARY
EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION AND OFF THE EAST COAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MOVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. IN ADDITION...WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WOULD BE EXPECTED HOWEVER
COVERAGE SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. HAVE CHANCE POPS INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTION F THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY OTHERWISE HAVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST.
OVERALL EXPECTING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES BY AROUND ABOUT
5 DEGREES. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S (BIT COOLER ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN)
WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COUPLE OF PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE REGION TODAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. A LULL IS THEN EXPECTED. THE NEXT WAVE
WILL HAVE THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE ADDRESSED THREAT WITH
VCSH SINCE DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT AND TIMING
OF EXPECTED CONVECTION. STORMS WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING
AND PASSAGE OF THE WAVE.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND FOR MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT
AT KGFL AND KPSF.
LIGHT/VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DEVELOPING AFTER SUNRISE. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE WESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING WITH GUSTS INTO THE TEENS TO
20 KNOTS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES AND SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUN NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MON: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE NIGHT-WED: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MINIMAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...AND THEN EXPECT FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER TO 35 TO 50 PERCENT
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO 85 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS. MIN RH VALUES SUNDAY WILL DROP
TO 35 TO 45 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST TO WEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH AND
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT 5 MPH OR LESS
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
MPH ON SUNDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ON MONDAY. THESE
DOWNPOURS WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND PERHAPS SOME
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE MID WEEK WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW...BUT LITTLE IMPACT ON THE RIVERS IS EXPECTED IN THE
ALY HYDRO SERVICE AREA.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
945 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE
ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS TO MAINTAIN A DEEP AND STEADY
S/SW FLOW ACRS CENTRAL FL. RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLUG OF DRY H100-H70
AIR HAS WRAPPED ITSELF AROUND THE WRN FLANK OF THE LOW AND INTO THE
SE GOMEX. THE 00Z KEYW/KMFL RAOBS CONFIRM THIS WITH A NOTICEABLY
DRIER H100-H70 LYR THAN POINTS NWD...EVEN KXMR SHOWED A SURPRISINGLY
DRY H100-H70 LYR.
NOT SURPRISINGLY...PRECIP TREND HAS BEEN MINIMAL FOR THE PAST FEW
HRS. LIGHT RAIN HAS DVLPD JUST S OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR...BUT NETHER A
LARGE RAINSHIELD OVER THE NE GOMEX NOR A SHOWER BAND OVER THE
OFFSHORE ATLC WATERS OF THE TREASURE COAST HAVE MADE ANY SIG MOVES
TOWARD THE CWA.
DESPITE THE RELATIVELY DRY LOWER LVLS...THE OVERALL AIRMASS REMAINS
QUITE UNSTABLE WITH A SIG AMNT OF MID LVL VORTICITY OVER THE ERN
GOMEX ASSOCD WITH THE LOW. PROXIMITY TO THE RAIN SHIELD ALONE WILL
REQUIRE OVERNIGHT POPS AS THE LOW DRIFTS ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE.
HOWEVER...MID LVL OMEGA FIELDS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL FL SUGGEST
PERIPHERAL SUBSIDENCE NOT UNLIKE THAT ASSOCD WITH A TROPICAL SYSTEM.
AS SUCH...WILL LOWER POPS BY 10PCT ACRS THE BOARD.
&&
.AVIATION...
THRU 03/14Z...S/SW SFC WINDS 5-10MPH...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR
TSRAS N OF KISM-KTIX...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS S OF KISM-KTIX. BTWN
03/12Z-03/16Z...SW SFC WINDS INCRG TO 8-13KTS WITH SCT MVFR
SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS. AFT 03/16Z... SW SFC WINDS 10-15KTS WITH OCNL
SFC G20-23KTS N OF KISM-KMLB...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE S/SWRLY BREEZE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AS A BROAD
SFC LOW OVER THE BIG BEND AREA CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE ATLC
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FL STRAITS. TIGHTER SFC/LOW LVL PGRAD N OF THE
CAPE MAY ALLOW WINDS TO REACH INTO THE 15-20KT RANGE AS THE LOW
PUSHES ACRS THE ERN PANHANDLE THRU SUNRISE.
THE OFFSHORE FLOW WILL LIMIT SEA HEIGHTS WHILE GENERATING SHORT PD
WIND CHOP. DATA BUOYS CONFIRMING THIS WITH SEAS 1-2FT NEARSHORE AND
2-3FT OFFSHORE...DOMINANT PDS AOB 5SEC. SOME WIND DRIVEN WAVES MAY
REACH 3-4FT OVER THE OFFSHORE LEG OF VOLUSIA COUNTY.
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
BRAGAW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSONVILLE FL
922 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...FAIRLY WELL DEFINED SFC LOW CONTS OVER THE NE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 30N84W...DRIFTING ENE PAST 12 HOURS. WEAK TROF
EXTENDS NEWD INTO SE GA WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN
SCT CONVECTION IN THAT AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING. NOW...ONLY ISOLD TO SCT SHALLOW CONVECTION EXISTS WITH
THE MORE PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL FORCING LOCATED E OF THE SFC LOW
CENTER OVER THE NE GULF AND EXTENDING EWD TO NEAR I-75. MODELS ARE
NOT DOING A GOOD JOB WITH THE SFC LOW AND PREFERRED A SLOWER
MOTION...SIMILAR TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE...MOVING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
EWD 5-10 KT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION BETWEEN
GAINESVILLE AND TRENTON AND WHILE A NARROW RAIN BAND MAY
SETUP...ANTICIPATE ONLY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY OWING TO WEAKER FORCING AND NOCTURNAL COOLING.
USING HRRR AND RADAR TRENDS...WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER POPS ALL
AREAS BUT KEEP ELEVATED RAIN CHANCES AROUND THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT
RANGE W OF I-75 SOUTH OF LAKE CITY. ELSEWHERE...RAIN CHANCES ARE
AOB 40 PERCENT WITH TSTMS CHANCES WANING QUICKLY AS WELL.
DUE TO EXPECTED LOW TRACK ENE TO NE ON MONDAY...ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE EXPECTED SE OF A LINE FROM
BRUNSWICK TO LIVE OAK. CHANCES SHOWERS AND STORMS NW OF THAT
LINE. SOMEWHAT LOWER MAX TEMPS IN NE FL DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS
COMPARED TO SE GA WHICH ARE FCST IN THE LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...
CEILINGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER TO MVFR FROM TIME TO TIME OVERNIGHT BUT
MAINLY VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED AT MOST TAF SITES. GNV STANDS THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS LATER
TONIGHT AS THE THREAT FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASES OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AS A WEAK LOW SLOWLY TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE DAY. IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...COMBINATION OF SFC LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE ATLC
CONTINUES TO LEAD TO ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RESULT IN
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS THROUGH MONDAY. THEREFORE...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR OUTER WATERS.
RIP CURRENTS: LOW TO MODERATE RIP CURRENT THREAT THROUGH MONDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 92 75 97 / 40 30 10 20
SSI 77 90 76 89 / 40 60 30 30
JAX 74 91 75 93 / 30 60 30 40
SGJ 75 88 75 89 / 50 70 30 40
GNV 75 88 74 89 / 70 70 30 40
OCF 74 87 74 88 / 80 80 40 50
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR WATERS FROM
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL FROM 20
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SHASHY/SHULER/WALKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
641 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WEAK FRONT TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THAT REGION. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG
WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. MET HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WENT CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT TIMES AT
OGB/AGS/DNL IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.
TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. STRATUS AND FOG CURRENTLY RELEGATED MAINLY
TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH GA AND THE SOUTH COAST OF SC. STILL
SOME POSSIBILITIES THAT THIS COULD SHIFT NORTH INTO THE AGS/DNL/OGB
TERMINALS IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT CONFIDENCE LOW.
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL/OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROAD TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z INDICATES WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA. SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE REGION WITH DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE EAST. WEAK FRONT TO
SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST TODAY. APPROACH OF WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AND WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY SUPPORTS LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE
SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST HRRR SHOWS
SCATTERED COVERAGE IN THAT REGION. RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER REMAINS IN THAT AREA AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGEST ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SLOW MOVEMENT. IF DRIER AIR FROM THE
CENTRAL MIDLANDS GETS ENTRAINED INTO STORMS...LOW THREAT STRONG
WINDS ALSO. THREAT IN THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS AND WEST LOW AS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR CAPPED AND DRIER. MET HAS COOL BIAS WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES SO WENT CLOSER TO MAV/ECS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS APPEARS TO BE DRIER ACROSS
CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CSRA AND SOUNDINGS LIKELY CAPPED. SO
LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION CONFINED MAINLY IN THE EAST MIDLANDS...LOWER CSRA.
MAX TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S...LOWS UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT OGB/AGS/DNL
IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.
TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OGB AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL SHIFT TO POSSIBLE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED...THE EXTENT OF WHICH COULD DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IN THE NEAR
TERM...SO WILL GENERALLY LEAN CONSERVATIVE ON STRATUS...EXCEPT AT
OGB WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THE NEAR TERM COULD ACT TO PROMOTE FOG/STRATUS.
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL...WITH VCTS AT OGB...AFTER 18Z.
DUE TO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
149 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL KEEP THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST MIDLANDS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WITH BROADEN TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
THE EAST COAST. SURFACE OBS SHOWING THAT THE FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
THE CSRA IS SLOWLY TRYING TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE CSRA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THIS FRONT SHOULD STALL ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CSRA
AND EASTERN MIDLANDS ALONG NORTHWARD MOVING OUTFLOWS. DO NOT
ANTICIPATE MUCH CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MIDLANDS NORTHWARD
DUE TO THE DRIER AIR TRYING TO PUSH IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE
PIEDMONT. HAVE FORECAST SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S...WHICH ARE ARE CONSISTENT WITH MOS GUIDANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH DRY AIR FEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODELS INDICATE A
SIGNIFICANT CAPPING INVERSION OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
MIDLANDS MINIMIZING THE THREAT OF CONVECTION IN THE WEST. HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE ALONG THE
COAST WILL PROMOTE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. BASED ON MODEL WARMING TRENDS IN
ADDITION TO A RECENT COOL BIAS...HAVE INCREASED HIGHS DURING THE
PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY...IN THE MID
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT SHOWING A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL US
WITH A BROAD TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL REMAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
DISSIPATING. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE AREA MAINLY DRY. MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
REGION TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD FAVORING CLIMATOLOGY FOR
POPS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED AT CAE/CUB...WITH RESTRICTIONS AT TIMES AT OGB/AGS/DNL
IN POSSIBLE FOG/STRATUS AND/OR CONVECTION.
TIGHT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE GRADIENT NOTED CURRENTLY ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.3 INCHES NEAR
OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA (FA) TO AROUND 2 INCHES NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FA. SURFACE BOUNDARY GENERALLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. LATEST RADAR IMAGES INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR OGB AND WILL HANDLE WITH TEMPO GROUPS THERE.
OTHERWISE...FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL SHIFT TO POSSIBLE FOG AND/OR
STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...MAINLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME FOG IS EXPECTED...THE EXTENT OF WHICH COULD DEPEND
ON CLOUD COVER...WITH SOME INDICATIONS THAT STRATUS COULD DEVELOP.
LATEST HRRR AND NARRE INDICATE STRATUS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTH
GA SHIFTING TOWARDS THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHILE OTHER
GUIDANCE INDICATING MIXED RESULTS. LATEST HRRR APPEARS TO BE
EXAGGERATED ON THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE STRATUS IN THE NEAR
TERM...SO WILL GENERALLY LEAN CONSERVATIVE ON STRATUS...EXCEPT AT
OGB WHERE EARLIER RAINFALL COUPLED WITH POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
IN THE NEAR TERM COULD ACT TO PROMOTE FOG/STRATUS.
AFTER ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS DISSIPATES...FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO
DIURNAL CONVECTION WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FA. FOR
NOW...WILL INDICATE VCSH AT AGS/DNL...WITH VCTS AT OGB...AFTER 18Z.
DUE TO A MOIST ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA...ALONG WITH
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW OR NEARLY STATIONARY STORMS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS...WITH
A CHANCE OF DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OGB/AGS/DNL...SUNDAY.
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH EARLY MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE FOG PRONE
SITES AGS AND OGB.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1009 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
915 PM CDT
LINE SEGMENT OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MCHENRY AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY HAS POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS ON KMKX AND TMKE RADAR.
OVERALL REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE DOES NOT LOOK THE GREATEST...BUT
THESE POCKETS OF WINDS...ALONG WITH TRANSIENT COUPLETS AT TIMES IN
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
AREA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS 20-30 KT IN THE 0-1KM LAYER BASED
ON MKX VAD WIND PROFILER AND RAP ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS MIXED GIVEN SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...SO
AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND CERTAINLY A
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT TOO. THE EARLIER TORNADO WARNING IN LAKE
COUNTY WAS FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WHICH WAS DIFFERENT MODE
THAN THE STORMS MOVING IN...HOWEVER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A BRIEF THREAT OF THIS AMONGST THE HIGHER WIND THREAT.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO BETWEEN 1015-1130 PM
CDT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
151 PM CDT
.THROUGH TONIGHT...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE WORKING THERE WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS
INSTABILITY IS FAVORABLE. THE STORM IN DEKALB COUNTY HAS PRODUCED
SOME HAIL OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 88 CORRIDOR. SHEAR IS
WEAKER CLOSER TO THE LAKE...SO A DOWNWARD TREND IS POSSIBLE...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY HOLD ITS OWN FOR A BIT LONGER. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF INTER-CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM...WITH OCCASIONAL/FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS WELL.
WE DO STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EVEN MORE SO ACROSS WISCONSIN. STILL...WEAK
ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE IN PLACE IN AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SHEAR
IS STILL LOW THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON APPEARS ON THE LOW SIDE...THOUGH THESE
STORMS COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE ALREADY SYNOPTICALLY MODEST WIND
FIELD AND MAY HAVE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...JUST WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND READINGS IN UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
AFTERNOON MIXING IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN FAVORED OUTLYING AREAS WHERE AIDED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LOCALLY ENHANCES THE MOISTURE READINGS.
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A MODEST COLD
FRONT. STILL SOME CONCERNS OVER HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE THIS EVENING. BEST FORCING IS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE AREA JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING TIME. FOR STORMS THAT DO FORM...AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS TO OUR NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS. AIDED
CONVERGENCE/LIFT CAN POTENTIALLY BE ENHANCED CLOSER TO THE LAKE
WHERE ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE LAKE...AND POTENTIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGHER. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PAINTING QUITE A RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FROM A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IN OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS
AND VERY LITTLE CLOSER TO CHICAGO...WITH ALTERNATE SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING THE FORMER SCENARIO WITH LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES
FAVORED. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
344 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTING
TO THE EAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKEWISE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S LIKELY BOTH DAYS.
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK...WITH
THE GFS THE OUTLIER BRINGING STRONGER/MORE DEFINED LOW CLOSER TO
THE CWA. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A FURTHER NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIP
AXIS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY...HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER THIS POSSIBLE PRECIP...A DRIER
TREND IS LOOKING LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHILE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 03Z...
* TSRA IMPACTING THE LOCAL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN EVEN AT THIS
LATE HOUR. SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LINE OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI AND DROPPING SOUTH. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IF AND WHEN STORMS DO
MANAGE TO POP THROUGH A WEAK CAP. MOTION OF THE FRONT WOULD CARRY
THE ACTIVITY THROUGH FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITH VFR AND W TO NW WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. TIMING AROUND 02Z INTO THE TERMINALS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE...AND ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEFOREHAND
AND LINGERING SHOWERS FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 03Z...
* MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND DURATION OF TSRA. LOWER
CONFIDENCE REGARDING CIGS AND VSBYS.
* HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS AFTER EVENING CONVECTION.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
THURSDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
440 PM CDT
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AREAS...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHEST
SPEEDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PERSIST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WEST NORTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
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FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND YOUTUBE AT:
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
918 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
915 PM CDT
LINE SEGMENT OF STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST MCHENRY AND NORTHERN
LAKE COUNTY HAS POCKETS OF STRONGER WINDS ON KMKX AND TMKE RADAR.
OVERALL REFLECTIVITY SIGNATURE DOES NOT LOOK THE GREATEST...BUT
THESE POCKETS OF WINDS...ALONG WITH TRANSIENT COUPLETS AT TIMES IN
FAR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS
AREA. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR REMAINS 20-30 KT IN THE 0-1KM LAYER BASED
ON MKX VAD WIND PROFILER AND RAP ANALYSIS. IN ADDITION...THE
BOUNDARY REMAINS MIXED GIVEN SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH...SO
AREAS OF WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT AND CERTAINLY A
NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT TOO. THE EARLIER TORNADO WARNING IN LAKE
COUNTY WAS FOR A DISCRETE SUPERCELL...WHICH WAS DIFFERENT MODE
THAN THE STORMS MOVING IN...HOWEVER INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST A BRIEF THREAT OF THIS AMONGST THE HIGHER WIND THREAT.
STORMS SHOULD MOVE THROUGH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO BETWEEN 1015-1130 PM
CDT.
MTF
&&
.SHORT TERM...
151 PM CDT
.THROUGH TONIGHT...
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE WORKING THERE WAY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE STORMS ARE HOLDING TOGETHER TO SOME DEGREE AS
INSTABILITY IS FAVORABLE. THE STORM IN DEKALB COUNTY HAS PRODUCED
SOME HAIL OF NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE. THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE INTERSTATE 88 CORRIDOR. SHEAR IS
WEAKER CLOSER TO THE LAKE...SO A DOWNWARD TREND IS POSSIBLE...BUT
IT WILL LIKELY HOLD ITS OWN FOR A BIT LONGER. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
OF INTER-CLOUD LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM...WITH OCCASIONAL/FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS WELL.
WE DO STILL EXPECT AFTERNOON ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED AS WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE BETTER SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS PASSING THROUGH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND EVEN MORE SO ACROSS WISCONSIN. STILL...WEAK
ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN KEEPS THE ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED STORM CHANCE IN PLACE IN AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE. SHEAR
IS STILL LOW THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE SEVERE THREAT AT LEAST
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON APPEARS ON THE LOW SIDE...THOUGH THESE
STORMS COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE THE ALREADY SYNOPTICALLY MODEST WIND
FIELD AND MAY HAVE SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
FOR THE REST OF THE AREA...JUST WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS REMAIN
IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AND READINGS IN UPPER 80S/LOW 90S.
AFTERNOON MIXING IS KEEPING DEWPOINTS FROM GETTING OUT OF THE LOW
TO MID 60S...EXCEPT IN FAVORED OUTLYING AREAS WHERE AIDED
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION LOCALLY ENHANCES THE MOISTURE READINGS.
MORE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD
TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF BETTER HEIGHT FALLS AND A MODEST COLD
FRONT. STILL SOME CONCERNS OVER HOW WIDESPREAD THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL BE THIS EVENING. BEST FORCING IS TIED TO THE COLD
FRONT WHICH WILL BE COMING THROUGH THE AREA JUST AFTER PEAK
HEATING TIME. FOR STORMS THAT DO FORM...AMPLE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR STORMS TO QUICKLY BECOME
SEVERE...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM STORMS TO OUR NORTH COUPLED
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PUSH WILL COMPLICATE MATTERS. AIDED
CONVERGENCE/LIFT CAN POTENTIALLY BE ENHANCED CLOSER TO THE LAKE
WHERE ADDITIONAL MOMENTUM MAY KEEP THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR STORMS
NORTH AND EAST CLOSER TO THE LAKE...AND POTENTIALLY IN OUR
SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS/INSTABILITY MAY BE A LITTLE
HIGHER. CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS PAINTING QUITE A RANGE OF
SOLUTIONS FROM A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS IN OUR SOUTHWEST AREAS
AND VERY LITTLE CLOSER TO CHICAGO...WITH ALTERNATE SOLUTIONS
SUGGESTING THE FORMER SCENARIO WITH LAKE ADJACENT COUNTIES
FAVORED. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST.
KMD
&&
.LONG TERM...
344 PM CDT
MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEPARTING
TO THE EAST...WITH ASSOCIATED PRECIP LIKEWISE DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR LIKELY FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES
INTO SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHEAST CONUS. NO PRECIP EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S LIKELY BOTH DAYS.
MODELS QUICKLY DIVERGE WITH APPROACHING SYSTEM BY MIDWEEK...WITH
THE GFS THE OUTLIER BRINGING STRONGER/MORE DEFINED LOW CLOSER TO
THE CWA. THIS WOULD PROVIDE A FURTHER NORTHWARD PUSH OF PRECIP
AXIS ESPECIALLY DURING THE WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. WITH UNCERTAINTY
IN PLACE AND WITH SOME GUIDANCE KEEPING THE CWA DRY...HAVE MADE
LITTLE CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST AND KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. AFTER THIS POSSIBLE PRECIP...A DRIER
TREND IS LOOKING LIKELY TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WHILE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS OCCUR.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.AVIATION...
//ORD AND MDW CONCERNS...UPDATED 00Z...
* LINE OF TSRA THIS EVENING WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
LENNING
//DISCUSSION...UPDATED 00Z...
FORECAST FOR THE EVENING REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN EVEN AT THIS
LATE HOUR. SATELLITE PICS SHOW A LINE OF CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG A
COLD FRONT ACROSS SRN WI AND DROPPING SOUTH. CONSIDERABLE
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THIS FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD TSRA ACTIVITY IF AND WHEN STORMS DO
MANAGE TO POP THROUGH A WEAK CAP. MOTION OF THE FRONT WOULD CARRY
THE ACTIVITY THROUGH FAIRLY RAPIDLY...WITH VFR AND W TO NW WINDS
IN ITS WAKE. TIMING AROUND 02Z INTO THE TERMINALS STILL LOOKS
REASONABLE...AND ALLOWS FOR POSSIBLE ISOLATED ACTIVITY BEFOREHAND
AND LINGERING SHOWERS FOR A SHORT WHILE AFTER.
LENNING
//ORD AND MDW CONFIDENCE...UPDATED 00Z...
* ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND EXTENT OF TSRA THIS
EVENING.
* HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW.
LENNING
//OUTLOOK FOR ORD/MDW FOR 12Z TUESDAY-12Z SUNDAY...UPDATED 00Z...
TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS.
WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE.
THURSDAY...VFR. CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...VFR.
LENNING
&&
.MARINE...
440 PM CDT
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE INCLUDING THE NEARSHORE AREAS...AS
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHEST
SPEEDS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NEARSHORE WHERE A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL PERSIST BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH LATE THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THIS LOW EXITS TO THE
EAST...WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE WEST NORTHWEST.
RODRIGUEZ
&&
.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...GALE WARNING...NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
10 PM SUNDAY.
&&
$$
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO FORM ALONG A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN FAR WEST-CENTRAL IL AND COULD REACH INTO
SCHUYLER...CASS...SCOTT...AND MORGAN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. CLOUD
COVER ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FORMING ALONG THE BOUNDARY TOWARD THE
WEST OVER THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL IL FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED
FORECASTS FOR THESE TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR A
MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT ONCE THE CLOUD BAND SLIPS SOUTHWARD...WITH
LOWS REACHING THE LOW TO MID 60S AND LIGHT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
19Z/2PM SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK COLD FRONT SETTLING INTO CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...EXTENDING FROM NEAR RANTOUL TO JUST SOUTH OF QUINCY.
MINIMAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND AN OVERALL LACK OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE HAS LARGELY PREVENTED CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION HAS
BEEN FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA WHERE A FEW CLUSTERS
OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED. HRRR CONTINUES TO OVER-EMPHASIZE
DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG THE FRONT AND PRODUCES NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ITS 1 AND 2-HOUR FORECAST. MEANWHILE...THE RAPID REFRESH HAS
CONSISTENTLY PRESENTED A MORE REALISTIC SCENARIO...SUGGESTING ONLY
ISOLATED STORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE E/NE KILX CWA OVER THE NEXT 2-4
HOURS. GIVEN THIS IS THE LOCATION WHERE CU-FIELD IS CURRENTLY MOST
PRONOUNCED...WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THIS SOLUTION CLOSELY. AS A
RESULT...WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF A
CHAMPAIGN TO MARSHALL LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ANY ISOLATED
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE TOWARD
SUNSET...FOLLOWED BY MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS WILL TRICKLE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
OVERALL A FAIRLY PERSISTENT WNW FLOW PATTERN WILL REMAIN ACROSS IL
AND MUCH OF THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. QUITE A BIT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING A BREAKDOWN OF THE
WESTERN RIDGE AND DEEPENING OF THE EASTERN TROUGH FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
IN THE NEAR TERM...VERY WARM AND INCREASINGLY HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
BE ON TAP FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SATURDAY. AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT AND A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION FROM IOWA/NEBRASKA IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AREAS WEST OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE EARLY MORNING T-STORMS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN IL SUNDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN REDEVELOPMENT OF T-STORMS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-74.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY COULD BE STRONG...MAINLY
DUE TO MODERATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY.
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN ADVANCING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...YIELDING VERY WARM AND SOMEWHAT HUMID CONDITIONS
MONDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A RATHER UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL PERIODS OF RAIN FROM LATE
MONDAY...ON AND OFF...THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODELS REVOLVES AROUND THE DETAILS OF
POSSIBLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY BREAKING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE
AND INTERACTING WITH THE FRONT. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THIS THAN THE EUROPEAN MODEL. HOWEVER...THE EUROPEAN NOT ONLY
UNDERPLAYS THE AFFECTS OF THIS BUT KEEPS THE SURFACE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. UNTIL THE DETAILS ARE WORKED OUT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN
WHERE A THREAT OF PERSISTENT...POSSIBLY HEAVY RAIN MAY SET UP THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THUS...WILL NOT MAKE TOO MANY MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST AND KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE ONE THING THE MODELS DO AGREE ON IS THAT WITH THE PERIODS OF
CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED
OUT SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THESE
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL IL TERMINALS AND ONLY
EXPECTING SCATTERED SCATTERED CLOUD COVER AT KSPI AND PERHAPS
KDEC. WINDS NW 3-5 KTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SW 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z
SATURDAY. SW WINDS DECREASING AFTER 00Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ONTON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...ONTON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
628 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT ARE CAUSING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
A CAPE AXIS THAT APPEARS TO FOLLOW HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING
VALUES TO THE EAST...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
AN AREA OF SURFACE WIND CONVERGENCE AND A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE HAS PRODUCED SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN RED WILLOW
COUNTY AROUND THE TERMINAL...WITH THE STRONGEST PART OF THE STORM
REMAINING TO THE WEST...BUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT. PART
OF THE STORM APPEARS TO BE WITHIN 5 MILES...THUS PUT -TSRA MENTION
FOR THE NEXT HOUR AND VCTS UNTIL 2Z.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
19Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS WHILE THE CENTER OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE SITS OVER WEST
TX. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED NORTHWEST INTO OR. THE RAP ANALYSIS
SUGGESTS THERE ARE ONLY A COUPLE WEAK VORT MAXIMUM UPSTREAM. ONE
OVER EASTERN NEB AND ANOTHER MOVING INTO SD. AT THE SURFACE, A MESO
HIGH REMAIN OVER CENTRAL NEB WHILE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MORNING
CONVECTION HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, THERE REMAINS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE
FOR A STORM TO DEVELOP AS OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MORE THAN ENOUGH
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER SURFACE FLOW HAS BEEN RATHER WEAK SO
CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG ANY OF THE BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO BEEN
RATHER WEAK. SATELLITE SHOWS LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE CU FIELD
ACROSS THE AREA INDICATING THERE HASN`T BEEN MUCH FORCING AS WELL.
AND ANY WEAK VORTICITY ADVECTION FROM THE LEFT OVER CONVECTION IN
EASTERN NEB IS LIKELY PROPAGATING INTO MO. BECAUSE OF THIS THINK THE
CHANCES FOR ANY SPOT TO RECEIVE RAIN IS ONLY ABOUT 10 PERCENT AND
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. ONCE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
STARTS TO COOL, THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH.
OVERNIGHT, MODELS SHOW THE LOW LEVEL JET SETTING UP ACROSS NEB AND
IA WITH NO REAL ORGANIZED ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
BECAUSE OF THIS HAVE A DRY FORECAST GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, SO THINK WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
FOR SUNDAY, THE SETUP LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH DECENT
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AND NOT MUCH INHIBITION TO
CONVECTION. WITH A LACK OF LARGE SCALE FORCING, PRECIP CHANCES LOOK
UNLIKELY UNTIL A TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE IN THE
DAY. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THIS BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS REALLY THE ONLY
ONE THAT DEVELOPS CONVECTION. THE GFS ALSO IS THE WARMEST SOLUTION
AND MAY BE A LITTLE EAGER TO BREAK WHAT CAP THERE IS. WHILE PRECIP
CHANCES DON`T LOOK GREAT, IT`S DIFFICULT TO RULE OUT A CHANCE SO
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
850 TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY, HAVE HIGHS A DEGREE OR SO
WARMER WITH GENERALLY MID 90S EXPECTED.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SUNDAY EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG
THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS WELL AS THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA. WILL LITTLE TO NO UPPER SUPPORT AND WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE ON THE WANE AFTER SUNSET.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL COOL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
MONDAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY LOOKS DRY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FROM
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE NEBRASKA BORDER NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TUESDAY MORNING.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
PLAINS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE MARKED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES
WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES OFF AND ON AS WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGH PRESSURE NOSES
INTO EASTERN KANSAS ON THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND INCREASING
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE FRONT WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THEN CONTINUE ON FRIDAY WITH PASSAGE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN SATURDAY. COOLER
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN
THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
MODELS SHOW A CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THERE ARE A
COUPLE WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE IF ANY CONVERGENCE
ALONG THEM. FORCING IS ALSO WEAK...LIKELY COMING FROM REMNANT
CONVECTION OVER EASTERN NEB. SO THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT TS PREDICTABILITY IS TO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. THEREFORE A VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST. TS CHANCES SHOULD LESSEN BY THE EARLY
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE INSTABILITY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1125 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.
SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015
FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND RIGHT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...THE ENTIRE TRI STATE REGION WILL SEE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT BY A STRONG AMPLIFIED
500/700 MB RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...THAT
SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEDNESDAY. LATEST
MODEL RUNS STILL SHOW 850 MB TEMPS RANGING FROM +29C TO ALMOST
+35C...UNDER WNW UPPER FLOW. THIS IS GOING TO GIVE THE AREA DAYTIME
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S...WARMEST ON WEDNESDAY WHEN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES OVER THE REGION AND COULD GIVE MID TO UPPER 90S TO THE AREA.
COOLER AIR COULD ARRIVE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING SOUTH THRU THE PLAINS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.
DESPITE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE REGION OVER THE NEXT WEEK...SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
RIDGE...BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY
THOUGH WILL SPARE THE FORECAST AREA FOR THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...ONLY
TO BEGIN WITH A STRONG TROUGH LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND THEN
SUBSEQUENT SYSTEMS. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP THOUGH AS WEEK
PROGRESSES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT MORE EASTWARD OVER THE CWA...DUE TO
MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE WHICH WILL AFFECT PLACEMENT OF EACH LATTER
SHORTWAVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS A
SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT WINDS WILL REDUCE TOWARDS THE
EVENING HOURS.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...MK
...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 551 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
MADE VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. WHILE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING IN NEBRASKA WITH A STRONG SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT TO THE MOTION, INSTABILITY DECREASES SHARPLY WITH
APPROACH TOWARD THE KANSAS BORDER. THE MAIN INSTABILITY AXIS SEEMS
TO RUN FROM SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI SO COULD
SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLIP NORTHERN AND PARTICULARLY
NORTHEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE HRRR IS
VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE (AS IT CAN BE AT TIMES
OF WEAK FORCING) AND BELIEVE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE WITH THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF THE STORM ACTIVITY INTO
KANSAS. AT THE SAME TIME...A STRONG COLD POOL HAS DEVELOPED FROM
NORTHERN STORMS AND WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO NORTHERN
KS...POSSIBLY STRONG ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ANOTHER STORM OR TWO.
BOTTOM LINE...STORM CHANCES THIS EVENING REMAIN LOW AND FOCUSED
OVER NORTHERN AND PERHAPS NORTHEAST KANSAS. IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS
INTO THE AREA THERE IS A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR IT TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON AT 20Z. FORECAST SHEAR THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KANSAS IS MARGINAL IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE WITH MLCAPE FORECAST IN
THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION IN NEBRASKA IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING.
WITH LACK OF UPPER FORCING AND THE FOCUS FOR INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NORTH IN NEBRASKA WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THE EVENING HOURS. LOWS SHOULD FALL
INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
SATURDAY...MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS NEBRASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
IOWA, NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS A LITTLE WARMER
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
SATURDAY NIGHT T0 MONDAY...
ANOTHER WAVE IS FCST TO SLIDE SE ACROSS THE REGION SAT NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO PARTS OF NE/IA/MO AND
PERHAPS CLIPPING FAR NORTHEAST KS WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME.
STRONGEST FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NE OF THE AREA SO WILL ONLY KEEP
LOWER CHC POPS FOR SAT NIGHT. BY SUNDAY SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
INTO WI WITH A COLD FRONT FCST TO SAG INTO THE STATE BY PEAK
HEATING. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHCS IN THE FCST FOR THE NORTHERN HALF
NEAR THE FRONT ON SUNDAY FOR RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE
EVENING. BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS WOULD APPEAR TO ARRIVE BY MONDAY
NIGHT AND BEYOND AS MID/UPPER WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS AND INTERACT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY.
MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER
NORTHERN KANSAS MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS SHORTWAVE IS
PROGGED TO EXIT THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION IS SEEN TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH ANOTHER PASSING SHORTWAVE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD, SLIGHT CHANCES FOR STORMS REMAIN
UNTIL FRIDAY. HIGHS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN FRIDAY DUE TO A SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
LOWS STAY MILD IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR VIS RESTRICTIONS (LIKELY SHALLOW FOG IN NATURE) JUST
PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE BEST CHANCE APPEARS TO BE AT TOP AFTER 10Z
BUT WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...HELLER/OMITT
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DODGE CITY KS
1128 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
...UPDATED FOR AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER ITS CLIMATOLOGICAL
POSITION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO TEXAS TODAY. IN THE UPPER
TROPOSPHERE, WEST NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDED FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WESTERN KANSAS WAS ON THE
SOUTH EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES AT 250MB. THE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) THAT AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHWEST KANSAS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING WAS DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND MOVING VERY SLOWLY
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST...FOLLOWING ROUGHLY THE 3-8KM AGL MEAN FLOW
VECTOR (JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE MEAN ANTICYCLONE IN THIS
LAYER OVER WEST TEXAS). A COUPLE OF MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTICITY
MAXIMAS COULD BE IDENTIFIED THROUGH VISIBLE SATELLITE AND EVEN THE
HOURLY RAP ANALYSIS FROM NEAR TUCUMCARI NEW MEXICO TO NEAR
SPRINGFIELD COLORADO. IT WOULD APPEAR AS OF THESE MESOSCALE FEATURES
WERE ACTUALLY HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE SMALL MCS THROUGH THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE LEADING EDGE OF IT WAS MOVING INTO THE FAR
EASTERN OK-TX PANHANDLES. THE VERY NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS
EXTENDED INTO MORTON AND SEWARD COUNTIES, WHICH WAS HAVING AN IMPACT
ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES (COOLER THAN FORECAST IN THIS AREA). WE HAVE
ADJUSTED THE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
KANSAS AS A RESULT. ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND
CENTRAL KANSAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
AS WE GO IN TO TONIGHT...ANOTHER SMALL MCS SHOULD EVOLVE THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT HOURS FROM CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
RATON MESA REGION. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW THE SAME GENERAL
TRACK AS THIS MORNINGS MCS, SO WE WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AGAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE. THE BULK OF LATE
TONIGHT/TOMORROWS MCS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE PANHANDLES REGION. IT
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO A RINSE AND REPEAT TYPE OF DEAL TOMORROW WITH A
SLOWLY DECAYING MCS SOMEWHERE JUST SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (OR
PERHAPS CLIPPING MORTON-SEWARD-MEADE) WITH WARMEST TEMPERATURES UP
NORTH ALONG I-70 (MID 90S) AND COOLEST TEMPERATURES ALONG THE OK
BORDER (LOWER-MID 80S, IF EVEN THAT WARM).
.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE NEXT ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION EVENT WILL BE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW AN INTERACTION BETWEEN MONSOON PERTURBATIONS MOVING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...AND AN INCOMING SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC
JET MOVING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION. THIS WILL ACT TO
SHIFT THE MONSOON CIRCULATION NORTHEASTWARD SOME...ENHANCING THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS. IT VERY WELL COULD BE
JUST ONE BIG MCS WE SEE OUT OF THIS EVENT, IN WHICH CASE IF THE
ECMWF HAS A HANDLE ON THINGS, WOULD BE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHEN
THE HIGHEST POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. ONCE THAT
WAVE EXITS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...THE SUMMER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
BUILD BACK IN, HOWEVER DEEP TROPOSPHERIC MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE
FAIRLY SCANT AND IT WILL NEED TO BE RECHARGED AGAIN BY WAY OF LATE
DAY HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST ECMWF FAVORS RIDGE-
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARMING OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACHING OR EXCEEDING
THE UPPER 90S BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1121 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO TODAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTH AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS TODAY, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON TO 12-20KT, THEN RELAX AGAIN AFTER
02Z. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AND HAZE NEAR KDDC AND
KGCK FROM 11-14Z THIS MORNING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC 68 87 67 93 / 10 10 10 10
GCK 67 87 67 92 / 10 10 10 10
EHA 66 85 67 92 / 30 30 20 10
LBL 68 83 68 92 / 30 30 20 10
HYS 67 93 67 95 / 10 10 10 10
P28 71 90 70 94 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...UMSCHEID
LONG TERM...UMSCHEID
AVIATION...KRUSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
603 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SO FAR IT HAS BEEN A
STRUGGLE TO COME UP WITH ENOUGH MOISTURE TO GET SOMETHING
GOING...BUT THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL TRY TO MOVE
EAST...AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD INTO THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR. FIGURE
ANY CONVECTION WILL BE DONE BY SUNSET.
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING DRY. THE 12Z
MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT SOME CONVECTION MOVING OFF OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND FLIRTING WITH SOUTHWEST INDIANA
STRADDLING 12Z MONDAY. IN GENERAL THE MODELS HAVE A WEAKENING
TREND WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA...AND
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES PREFER TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...SO
HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT HERE.
THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THE PROBLEMS ARE WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO AID IN CONVECTIVE INITIATION...AND WHERE EXACTLY
IT WILL BE. THE 12Z MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT IT SHOULD BE
CUTTING ABOUT HALF WAY THROUGH THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...BUT IT IS
NOT CLEAR WHETHER IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA BY
EVENING...OR WHETHER IT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE AREA. IF IT DOES
FOCUS CONVECTION IT WILL STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA. WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION FOR THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO TAKE ON MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL LOOK
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AS IT SETS UP ALONG/NEAR I-64.
CERTAINLY COULD SEE IT PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SMALL CHANCES FOCUSED IN
THE NORTH TUESDAY. WILL THEN INCREASE THEM SOME TUESDAY NIGHT AS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING COOL IN MOST LOCATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE GUIDANCE FROM YESTERDAY...AND THIS HAS
BEEN THE TREND FOR AWHILE NOW. THEREFORE...WILL STAY ON THE COOL
SIDE OF THE RANGE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LEANED
TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD QPF ACROSS THE PAH FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. LATEST ECMWF
AND CANADIAN ARE IN FAIRLY CLOSER AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING,
AND THIS OVERALL GIVES A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN GOING HIGH CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE PERIODS. A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY,
DECREASING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. ECMWF AND GFS
IMPLY SOME LINGERING PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY, SO KEPT SOME SLIGHT
TO LOW CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW. FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL KEEP
OUR AREA DRY.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND MUGGY WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE PUMPING WARM MOIST AIR
NORTHWARD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL READINGS IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S, WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S.
WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL OVERALL BE IN THE
80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE, WITH DEW POINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 601 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A FEW SCT HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE TO THE SOUTH AND LEAVE MOCLEAR
SKIES OVERNIGHT. WITH LIGHT WINDS...WONT RULE OUT FOG...BUT DID
NOT INHERIT ANY...SO WILL LEAVE IT OUT AND AWAIT EVENING TRENDS
FOR 06Z RECONSIDERATION. OTHERWISE ANTICIPATE SCATTERED DIURNAL CU
TMRW AS LIGHT SOUTH WINDS GO MORE WESTERLY OVER THE COURSE OF THE
DAY.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
533 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.
THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.
WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE. AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE. WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES. ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 531 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THETA-3 CONVERGENCE ALONG/JUST WEST OF MS RIVER IN ECNTL MO HAS
LED TO SOME BLOWOFF SCT-BKN MID CLOUD AFFECTING PRIMARILY KCGI
(BUT ALSO KPAH) EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER
THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND LGT WINDS MAY
ALLOW SOME PATCHY MVFR FOG...ESP AT MORE PRONE KCGI. LITTLE CHANGE
TO INHERITED SCT HIGH CLOUD TMRW WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLYS DEVELOPING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
302 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A BAND OF ENHANCED CU EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO OUR
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI COUNTIES IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF HIGHER
THETA-E AIR AT THE SURFACE...AND MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE ALREADY
SEEN A 30KT PEAK WIND AT KSZL AS THUNDERSTORMS PASSED THROUGH THAT
AREA...AND THAT POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD
INTO/THROUGH SOUTHEAST MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.
FOR NOW JUST HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
THROUGH THE EVENING...AS THE HRRR AND ARW/NMM WRF RUNS HAVE ONLY
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN OUR AREA. WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
AND RAMP UP POPS AS NECESSARY. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE THE
LIMITING FACTOR TODAY...SO IT MAY BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN AN
UPDRAFT. THERE IS A LOT OF DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN...SO IT
WILL NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FEW HEALTHY WIND GUSTS IF A STORM
SURVIVES INTO OUR AREA.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA...DEWPOINTS ARE MIXING OUT PRETTY
WELL...WITH SEVERAL SITES IN THE 50S ACROSS THE EVANSVILLE TRI
STATE. WITH A SIGNIFICANT DEWPOINT GRADIENT AND DECENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING EXPECTED TONIGHT...WE COULD SEE A FAIRLY LARGE RANGE OF
LOWS TONIGHT. TRIED TO INCREASE THE GRADIENT A BIT BY LOWERING LOWS
IN THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASING THEM SLIGHTLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY...AS
OUR NEXT COLD FRONT DESCENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO RECOVER A BIT FROM TODAYS
HEALTHY MIXING. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO INCREASE A BIT IN THE
NORTHEAST WITH THE ENTIRE AREA EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 90S.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION TO MOVE OFF OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT AND NEAR OUR SOUTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. COULD HAVE INSERTED A
SLIGHT CHANCE UP THERE JUST TO BE SAFE...BUT THE CONSENSUS OF
NEIGHBORING FORECAST OFFICES WAS TO KEEP IT DRY.
THE CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL DATA IS TO DRAG THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE ABOUT IT UNTIL THE EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE AREA. TOYED WITH INSERTING A LOW CHANCE POP...BUT
ENDED UP LEAVING IT DRY DUE TO THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED LOW MOS POPS.
WITH DEWPOINTS JUMPING BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S AND TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY...HEAT INDICES OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100 FOR A FEW
HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY MURKY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING AN
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A SURFACE FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER IN THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK, BUT DIFFER IN TIMING
IN UPPER LEVEL WAVES, THUS MAKING TIMING OF BEST CHANCES OF
CONVECTION CHALLENGING. GFS AND CANADIAN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER WAVE. AFTER SOME
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CREEP INTO
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PAH ON TUESDAY, BETTER CHANCES
WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER WAVE. WENT WITH GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS ALL OF OUR COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, KEPT POPS IN
THE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE CATEGORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES. ON SATURDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDING OVER TEXAS
WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN NORTHWEST FLOW, BUT MODELS KEEP US DRY, AND
WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN MUGGY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES COOLER MAINLY DUE TO PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE A LITTLE TRICKIER DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW KEPT READINGS
NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. BY SATURDAY WE SHOULD HAVE NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE, WHICH WILL DROP BACK DEW POINTS A FEW
DEGREES.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG AT KCGI
AND KPAH EARLY TMRW MORNING. ISOLATED VCTS COULD GET CLOSE TO KCGI
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO MENTION AT
THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH TODAY AND SWITCH
AROUND TO THE SOUTH TMRW MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...RST
AVIATION...SP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
228 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
HOURLY GRIDS HAVE AGAIN BEEN FRESHENED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.
A FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED AS A WEAK BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH. SOME
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS BY IN THE FLOW FROM CONVECTION
OVER THE MIDWEST AND PLAINS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WINDS ARE
SHIFTING TO MORE OF A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION AND REINFORCING A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE HAS BEEN ON CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST REASONING AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED
AT THIS POINT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
GRIDS HAVE BEEN TOUCHED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME CU IN THE MVFR RANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH ABOUT 21Z BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH CU POSSIBLY
AGAIN DEVELOPING BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD. COME MID AND HIGH
DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ALSO PASS BY FROM TIME TO TIME. OUTSIDE OF THE
OFFICIAL TAF SITES...PATCHY FOG AGAIN WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS DURING THE 6Z TO 13Z PERIOD...PERHAPS BECOMING LOCALLY
DENSE OR IFR CONDITIONS THERE FOR A BRIEF TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
GRIDS HAVE BEEN TOUCHED UP BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. A WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT IS DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND HAVE LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN SHIFT
WINDS TO MORE OF A NORTHWEST DIRECTION BEHIND IT AS ANOTHER SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH WILL ALSO KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OFFICIAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG AGAIN WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TOWARDS DAWN SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR
A BRIEF TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
734 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TOUCHED UP THE GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUTSIDE OF THE OFFICIAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG AGAIN WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
TOWARDS DAWN SUNDAY MORNING...PERHAPS BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR
A BRIEF TIME. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FEATURING A
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST AND A
CLOSED LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF THE HUDSON BAY AREA. THIS
PATTERN...THOUGH WITH SOME SHIFTING OF FEATURES EACH
DAY...REMAINS IN PLACE FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE EXTENDED. TO
START THE EXTENDED...A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND THE CHANCE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BY TUESDAY...A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY SETS UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN OH...IN...AND IL ALLOWING FOR A FOCUS OF SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG NORTHERN KENTUCKY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN IN PLACE WILL BE
FAVORABLE FOR MCS/S IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS HOLDS TRUE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND THURSDAY PERIOD. HAVE KEPT THE SUGGESTED POPS
INHERITED BY THE SUPER BLEND WITH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN
PLACE...THIS SEEMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE GFS AND EURO. BY THE WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD...A BETTER COMPLEX IS SEEMS
POISED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS STATED EARLIER...THE GFS
AND EURO HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK AND TIMING THIS
LATE IN THE EXTENDED AS RECENT RUNS HAVE THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHING
FURTHER SOUTH AS WELL AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT. OVERALL...THE DAY
5...6 AND 7 PERIOD SEEMS QUITE ACTIVE AND WILL KEEP THE HIGH
CHANCE POPS ADVERTISED BY THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
EAST KENTUCKY/S WEATHER THIS EARLY MORNING. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT
CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM AND IS SUPPORTING A DECENT RIDGE TO
VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT ON THE ORDER OF 5 TO 10 DEGREES. AT THE
SAME TIME DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE LOWER 60S. AS TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO RADIATE LOWER FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT THE DEWPOINTS
WILL ALSO CREEP DOWN...BUT IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS PROBABLY NOT FAST
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS
AND BODIES OF WATER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH DAWN PERHAPS
CONTRIBUTING TO THE LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE MORE SHELTERED RIVER
VALLEY SPOTS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SLOWLY DEEPENING...LARGE TROUGH THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONTINENT STRETCHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NORTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS WILL BRING MINOR SHORTWAVES OVER KENTUCKY DURING THE PERIOD
BUT NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE AMPLIFICATION UNTIL PERHAPS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHEN A HEALTHIER ONE PASSES BY TO THE NORTH. THE
NAM CONTINUES TO BE ON THE STRONGER SIDE OF THE MODEL SPECTRUM
WITH THE LARGER TROUGH AND THIS WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ACCORDINGLY...HAVE GONE WITH MORE OF A MODEL BLEND FAVORING A MIX
OF THE ECMWF AND GFS OUTSIDE OF THE NEAR TERM WHERE THE HRRR AND
NAM12 ARE REASONABLE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A VERY PLEASANT MID SUMMER WEEKEND
AS THE AFTERNOON WARMTH IS KEPT COMFORTABLE BY RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITIES WROUGHT BY A MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON MIX DOWN OF DRIER
AIR FROM THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER TO A MINIMUM
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND ALSO LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR SUNDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY...PATCHY FOG
WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS BOTH
THIS MORNING AND SUNDAY MORNING...THOUGH LOCALLY DENSE POCKETS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND MODEL AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE
T/TD/WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND INTO
SUNDAY. DID MAKE SOME SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ONCE...AND AS...THE INVERSION IS IN PLACE. AS FOR
POPS...KEPT THEM LOW AND IN LINE WITH THE DRIER MET GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015
THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TROUGH TROUGH OVER
MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING SOUTH FROM A CLOSED LOW OVER
THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REGION. AT THAT POINT...A FEW SHORTWAVES
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. A
FEW SHORTWAVES WILL ALSO BE WORKING AROUND THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS TO START THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER FURTHER NORTH
MOVING INTO SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AT THAT
POINT...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE ALSO CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY REGION AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS...BEFORE BECOMING
STATIONARY AND EXTENDING NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE CLOSED LOW INITIALLY NEAR SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY SHOULD MEANDER
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC AND OPEN UP A BIT
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. A SHORTWAVE OR TWO
ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW SHOULD WORK INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND ROTATE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO
THE NORTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE WORKING
AROUND THE RIDGE SHOULD APPROACH THE MS RIVER VALLEY. THE MODELS
ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF THE
SHORTWAVE ENTERING SOUTHWEST CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WORKING
INTO SOUTHWEST CANADA THE CORRESPONDING SFC AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD TRACK INTO QUEBEC WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
PERIOD...BEFORE STALLING OUT AND BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR
THE OHIO RIVER. THE SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY AROUND
MIDWEEK SHOULD LEAD TO A SFC WAVE OR WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY AND MOVING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE FRONTAL
ZONE ITSELF COULD ALSO PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD.
OVERALL...THE EXPECTED SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL LEAVE THE
REGION SUSCEPTIBLE TO AT LEAST DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS OR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY. THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA MAY BE IMPACTED EARLY IN THE WEEK...POSSIBLY AS EARLY
AS THE START OF THE WORK WEEK.
AS FOR POPS...SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BRING A DRY END TO THE WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT ANY POINT
FROM MONDAY TO POSSIBLY AS LATE AS FRIDAY. THE TRACK AND TIMING OF
THE SHORTWAVE THAT ENTERS SW CANADA EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL PLAY
A KEY ROLE IN THE DURATION OF THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION. WITH THE
MODELS RELATIVELY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
THE SFC AND UPPER AIR PATTERN AND THE SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO NEAR
AT MIDWEEK...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION APPEAR GREATEST FROM WED INTO
THU.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING
THE MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...BEFORE THE COLD FRONT GRADUALLY
SLIPS SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR
MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE AT SME
LATE THIS NIGHT AS THEIR DEWPOINT DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY THE
SMALLEST. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE ADDED A PERIOD OF MVFR FOG TO THAT
SITE WHILE LEAVING THE REST CLEAN. OUTSIDE OF THE FORMAL TAF
SITES...PATCHY FOG WILL BE FOUND IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOWARDS
DAWN...BECOMING LOCALLY DENSE FOR A BRIEF TIME. ANY FOG WILL
CLEAR OUT BY MID MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AT THE AIRPORTS. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
617 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...
TSTMS ARE PRETTY MUCH OUT OF CWA THIS EVNG WITH JUST AN ISOLD
SHOWER SKIRTING ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE IN ADVANCE OF WK S/WV.
NEXT BATCH OF PCPN OVR SRN QUEBEC ON TAP TO MV INTO CWA WL LKLY
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HTG PER LATEST HRRR AND NAM. EXPECT
JUST AN ISOLD SHOWER TO AFFECT WRN ZONES BY DAYBREAK AT THE MOST.
WINDS WL LKLY RMN UP HIGH ENUF TO PREVENT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PATCHY FOG OVRNGT THO THIS IS SOMETHING THAT MAY NEED TO BE ADDED
IN LATER. HV ADJUSTED HRLY T/TD VALUES IN WAKE OF AREA OF
CONVECTION. NO CHGS NEEDED TO MIN TEMPS TONIGHT AT THIS POINT.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO
NEW BRUNSWICK BY THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH
EAST. THEREAFTER, SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS.
FOR TOMORROW...ANOTHER UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL TREK ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
MAINLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID
70S NORTH, TO AROUND 80 ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CWA WL BE IN TRANSITION FM HIPRES TO APPCHG LOPRES ON SUN NGT.
LOPRES WL MV INTO ERN QUEBEC WITH TRAILING CDFNT BACK TO THE WEST BY
12Z MON. 12Z MODELS DIFFER ON PLACEMENT OF FRONT BY THIS TIME WITH
GFS FURTHER WEST THAN NAM/CMC. H5 FLOW BCMS ZONAL AT THE START OF
THE SHORT TERM WITH BRIEF RIDGING THRU MOST OF THE OVRNGT. RIDGE WL
DEFLECT S/WVS OFF TO THE NW WITH ONLY ISOLD SHRA OR THUNDER EXPECTED
ACRS THE FAR NORTH TWD DAYBREAK AS UPR TROF AND ASSOC FRONT APPCHS.
MIN TEMPS SUN NGT WL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM ACRS CWA IN THE U50S. SRLY
FLOW ACRS DOWNEAST WL KEEP TEMPS WARM AND CLDY SKIES ACRS THE NW WL
KEEP TEMPS FM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH DRG THE NIGHT. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO BE PRESENT THRU 04Z ACRS THE CROWN OF MAINE.
AIRMASS WL LKLY DESTABILIZE AHD OF NEXT APPCHG FRONT ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WL WARM INTO THE L/M 80S AS TEMPS SOAR ABV 20C. BUFKIT SNDGS
INDICATE 500-1000 J/KG PER GFS FOR MON AFTN WHILE NAM IS ABOUT 2X
AS HIGH. CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HODOGRAPH ALONG WITH STRONG BULK
SHEAR VALUES AND STRONG MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WL LKLY SPELL THE NEXT
SVR THREAT LATE AFTN INTO THE EVNG.
FROPA OCCURS SOMETIME TUE MRNG WITH CONTD SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
TSTORMS AHD OF UPR LVL TROF. MAXES ON TUE WL BE RIGHT ARND NORMAL
AS SHOWERS AND CLOUDS PREVENT MUCH RISE IN TEMPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD IS A SERIES OF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES THAT ARE PROGGED TO PROPAGATE EWD
ACROSS MAINE. EACH WAVE COULD PRODUCE ISOLD/SCTD SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF OUR CWA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OCCURRING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL HAVE A STRONG
DIURNAL COMPONENT...SO WE ARE EXPECTING MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID
70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MAINLY VFR EXPECTED AFTER 00Z SUNDAY AS SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT. LOCAL IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THEN IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. VFR WILL PREVAIL 18Z SUNDAY, THEN LOCAL
MVFR IS POSSIBLE AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHORT TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF FRONT BRINGS MVFR AND POSSIBLY
IFR CONDITIONS TO TERMINALS LATE MON AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. VFR AND OCCASIONAL MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH THEN VFR AFTER.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN AT 10 TO 15 KT AND WAVES AROUND 3
FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT MAY
ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 5 FEET ON TUESDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/HASTINGS
SHORT TERM...FARRAR
LONG TERM...BERDES
AVIATION...FARRAR/HASTINGS/FARRAR
MARINE...FARRAR/HASTINGS/FARRAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAY ME
900 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.
TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS: PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES. OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.
TEMPERATURES: THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD. HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MESO MODEL
TRENDS. SHORT WAVE AND A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE MIDDAY HOURS. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM. DEW POINTS REMAIN NEAR 60
DEGREES...SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN A COUPLE DAYS AGO. WARMEST
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WHERE NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS.
PREV DISC...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.
TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.
SUNDAY: DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH. OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.
SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING. OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.
WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
625 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.
TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS: PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES. OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.
TEMPERATURES: THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD. HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.
TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.
SUNDAY: DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH. OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.
SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH QUIETER
CONDITIONS WORKING BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT.
A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS IS WEAKENING AS IT ARRIVES OVER NH AS OF
THIS WRITING. OUTSIDE OF SOME THICKENING MID CLOUDINESS...EXPECT A
FAIRLY QUIET MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER AT HIE/LEB/AUG/RCK WHERE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE IN A HEAVY DOWNPOUR. WILL INCLUDE VCTS MENTION TO COVER THE
PERIOD MOST LIKELY TO SEE THIS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
QUICKLY WANE THIS EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. GIVEN
SOME DAYTIME RAINFALL AND ONLY MODEST DRYING OVERNIGHT...EXPECT FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT LEB AND HIE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH IFR/LIFR
VSBYS.
WINDS: LIGHT WINDS WIL BECOME WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY AND INCREASE TO
10G18KTS FOR THE DAY TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 5KTS OR LESS FROM
THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...ARNOTT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS GRAY ME
555 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING ANOTHER THREAT
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DROP OFF
A LITTLE MORE BEHIND THIS FRONT. SUNDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. WEAK LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT...SITUATED OVER QUEBEC...WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND SHOWERS OR
STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD
WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH A FEW ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
553AM UPDATE: WILL DIMINISH EARLY MORNING POPS SOME BASED ON
WEAKENING RADAR TREND SEEN WITH INITIAL ECHOES AS THEY ATTEMPT TO
WORK THROUGH NORTHERN VERMONT AND OUTRUN ANY MEANINGFUL MUCAPE
FROM RECENT RAP ANALYSES. EXPECT THAT WE/LL NEED A LITTLE MORNING
SUN AND RESULTANT INSTABILITY TO GET ACTIVITY TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HAVE ALSO LOWERED TEMPS SOME AND INCLUDED SOME
FOG THROUGH 12Z BASED ON EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS SHOWING
LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE NORTHERN VALLEYS.
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN NH AND NORTHERN MAINE.
CURRENT PATTERN: CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE COLUMN HAS FULLY
ENVELOPED THE REGION AS OF THIS WRITING WITH EARLY MORNING WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED OVER HUDSON
BAY. A PARADE OF LOCAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CAN ALSO BE SEEN ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A BAND OF ENHANCED MOISTURE STRETCHING
FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES...AND JUST STARTING TO SCRAPE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A
SHORTWAVE IS COLLOCATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
MOISTURE...WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT SPARKING A FEW SHOWERS /AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER/ ACROSS NEW YORK INTO FAR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE
NORTH AND EAST...MAKING WAY FOR ANOTHER WAVE...NOW OVER SOUTHERN
ONTARIO...TO PULL EAST AND BE THE FOCUS FOR OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER
TODAY. FORECAST CHALLENGES CENTER AROUND PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL
WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY STRONG/SEVERE
CONVECTION.
THROUGH DAYBREAK: SHOWERS SEEN ON REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CONTINUE TO
MAKE A RUN AT NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. EXPECT THAT WE/LL HAVE TO
WAIT FOR THE ACTIVITY IN NEW YORK TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE PRECIPITATION...WITH PERHAPS A SPRINKLE POSSIBLE OVER
COOS COUNTY NH THROUGH DAYBREAK. OTHERWISE...JUST SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH THROUGH THE
LOWER 60 OVER SOUTHERN NH.
TODAY: ATTENTION TURNS TO UPSTREAM PV ANOMALY MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS
FEATURE LOOKS TO SHARPEN AS IT ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH AND PUSH INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 50KT JET AT H5 WITH A 1.5PV 85KT SPEED MAX. MODEST HEIGHT FALLS
AND INCREASING DPVA WILL WORK IN TANDEM WITH MODEST MOISTURE
INCREASE AND GOOD LAPSE RATES THROUGH H5 /GIVEN COOL POOL ALOFT/
TO ALLOW CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER NEW YORK TO EXPAND AS IT MOVES
THROUGH NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...BEING JOINED LATER BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS/WEAK SURFACE FRONT.
THUS...EXPECT SHRAS TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD AS INSTABILITY GROWS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
IMPRESSIVE...APPROACHING 50KTS IN THE 0-6KM LAYER WITH
LONG AND STRAIGHT...WEST-EAST ORIENTED HODOGRAPHS FAVORING MORE
CELLULAR STRUCTURE TO CELLS GIVEN ORTHOGONAL ORIENTATION OF THE
SHEAR TO THE FORCING FEATURE /FRONT/. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LIMITED GIVEN ONLY MODEST LLEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERY...BUT
1K J/KG MLCAPE APPEARS POSSIBLE TO ATTAIN OVER FAR NORTHERN NH /
NW MAINE CLOSER TO THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SEVERE WEATHER THREATS: PROFILES HAVE AN INVERTED-V LOOK TO
THEM...WHICH...WITH STRONG WINDS ALOFT SUGGEST A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT...ALTHOUGH MORE LOCALIZED GIVEN THE MORE CELLULAR NATURE TO
THE CONVECTION. WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS 8-9KFT HIGHLIGHT A HAIL
THREAT AS WELL. TOR THREAT VERY LOW GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED
INVERTED-V PROFILES. OVERALL THREAT WILL BE TIED PRIMARILY TO
INSTABILITY...AND THEREFORE WILL BE GREATEST OVER FAR NORTHERN NH
AND NW MAINE...WHICH IS RIGHT IN LINE WITH THE NEW SWODY1 FROM SPC.
WILL INCLUDE ENHANCED WORDING IN THESE LOCATIONS...WITH LESS THUNDER
EMPHASIS FURTHER SOUTH. AND...WHILE THE ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH
WILL LIKELY NOT BE SEVERE...WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS HERE AS WELL
GIVEN INVERTED-V NATURE TO THE PROFILES.
TEMPERATURES: THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WILL SPELL A COOLER
DAY...PARTICULARLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS WHERE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
WIDESPREAD. HERE...HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S. DOWNSLOPE
WESTERLIES WILL PROMOTE HIGHS WELL INTO THE 80S OVER SOUTHEASTERN NH
AND EXTREME SW MAINE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: NONE.
PATTERN/IMPLICATIONS: WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERED OVER HUDSON BAY. OUR WEATHER WILL BE AT
THE MERCY OF SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE...WITH A
RELATIVE LULL LIKELY FOR TONIGHT-SUNDAY BEHIND THE STRONGER WAVE
ON SATURDAY AND PRECEDING ANOTHER STRONG WAVE ON MONDAY. DESPITE
RELATIVELY LOW HEIGHTS IN THE TROUGH...LLEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL PROMOTING SURFACE TEMPERATURES NOT TOO FAR FROM
SEASONAL NORMS.
TONIGHT: ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD VERY QUICKLY WANE
WITH PARTIAL CLEARING...ALTHOUGH WITH DEEPER MOISTURE POOL CLOSER TO
THE REGION...DO EXPECT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO HANG AROUND
THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS LOOK NOT ALL THAT DISSIMILAR TO TONIGHT
WITH MODEST COOLING TO THE LLEVEL AIRMASS BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. GIVEN AT LEAST SOME RAIN ACROSS THE REGION...AND ONLY MODEST
COOLING BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET.
SUNDAY: DEEP CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION AND WHILE
THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID
LEVEL COLD POOL /T5S NEAR -15C/ AND DECENT MOISTURE ALONG SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HUDSON BAY VORTEX WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME AFTERNOON
SHOWERS TO SPARK OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ACTIVITY LOOKS WEAKER AND FAR
LESS WIDESPREAD THAN ON SATURDAY...SO REALLY NOT A BAD DAY EVEN UP
NORTH. OVER SOUTHERN NH/SOUTHWEST MAINE...EXPECT A DIURNAL INCREASE
IN CLOUDS...BUT NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE ABOUT 2C
COOLER THAN ON SATURDAY...BUT WITH LIKELY A BIT MORE SUN...SO HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK SIMILAR TO THE DAY PREVIOUS...PERHAPS A DEGREE/TWO
COOLER FOR SOUTHEAST NH AND SW MAINE.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE THREAT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
500MB PATTERN IS TRENDING TOWARD A MODIFIED +PNA PATTERN WITH
CLOSED LOW STARTING OUR OVER HUDSON AROUND 60N AND EVENTUALLY
SHIFT SWD INTO SRN QUEBEC BY MID WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING THE NE AND
WEAKENING AS IT RUNS INTO N ATLANTIC RIDGING. THIS WILL PULL SOME
COOLER AIR SWD BY MID TO LATE THIS WEEK...AND WILL KEEP THINGS
SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED AS IT PRODUCES CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND THE CORE OF THE JET WILL SHIFT BACK TO THE N...AND COULD
SEE THINGS START TO WARM AGAIN.
SUN NIGHT WILL START WITH BUILDING 500MB RIDGING OVER ME AN THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WHICH WILL ALLOW FLOW TO SHIFT TO THE SW ANDTAP
INTO WARM AIR...SFC AND MID-LVL JUST TO OUR SW. AFTER AN MAINLY
CLEAR AND SEASONABLY COOL SUN NIGHT MONDAY WILL WARM UP WITH
SHRA/TSRA MOVING INTO NW ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE 500 MB
CLOSED LOW DEEPENS TO THE WEST AND HEIGHTS FALL WILL SEE DECENT
INSTABILITY DEVELOP ALONG WITH INCREASED FLOW ALOFT. NAM IS
SUGGESTING BORDERLINE EML MOVING IN OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN BY LATE
MON AFT INTO MON EVE...WHICH WOULD AID IN THE FORMATION OF SEVER
STORMS. AT ANY RATE THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE A GOOD BET AWAY FROM
THE COAST MON AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ANOTHER WEAK WAVE SWINGS
AROUND THE CLOSED LOW ON TUE...SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA AND TSRA
POSSIBLE...AS THE COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THIS WAVE
TUESDAY. WED THRU FRI WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...BUT COLD AIR ALOFT
COULD PRODUCE SCT SHRA...MAYBE A TSRA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MTNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE MONDAY...AS HIGHS
WILL SURGE BACK INTO THE 85-90 RANGE IN MANY INLAND SPOTS...BUT
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THE COAST...AND ESPECIALLY THE
MID-COAST WHERE SW FLOW INCREASES. IT WILL BE A WARM AND MUGGY MON
NIGHT...WITH TEMPS AND HUMIDITY ON THE HIGHER SIDE TUE...BUT MORE
CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES. ONCE THE FRONT COMES
THRU IN THE AFTERNOON LOOK FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO DROP TO AROUND
NORMAL...LOW-MID 50S N...TO THE LOW 60S IN SRN NH...WITH HIGHS
RUNNING IN THE LOW 70S TO AROUND 80 THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SAT/...GENERALLY VFR WITH SOME INCREASING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH DAYBREAK /ESPECIALLY NORTH/...WITH
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG AT HIE BRINGING OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS.
FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY...A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE
REGION WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE
AND NORTHWESTERN MAINE DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW TEMPORARY PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS/CIGS...
WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DOWNPOURS...BUT THE DAY WILL REMAIN
LARGELY VFR. LEB/HIE/AUG/RKD STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
STORMS...WHICH COULD BE POTENTIALLY STRONG. ANY CONVECTION WILL
QUICKLY WANE DURING THE EVENING WITH PARTIAL CLEARING EXPECTED.
WINDS: CALM-LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL BECOME WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY 10G18KTS FOR THE DAY ON SATURDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY /5KTS OR LESS/ SATURDAY EVENING.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY...WITH A DIURNAL INCREASE IN
CUMULUS COVERAGE...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE/SHOWER AT HIE.
LONG TERM...MAINLY VFR SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH VLY FOG
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT. SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT MOST OF THE
TERMINALS LATE MON AND MON NIGHT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...EXPECT WAVES AND SOUTHERLY WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY DESPITE INCREASING SOMEWHAT
DURING THE DAY TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
LONG TERM...PERSISTENT SW FLOW SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
HIGHER SWELLS TO THE COASTLINE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT....AND A
SURGE OF SW WINDS COULD APPROACH SCA LVLS FOR A SHORT PERIOD MON
NIGHT.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
NH...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ARNOTT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
127 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE REGION WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS THROUGH 12Z TO BRING 20% ACROSS
THE W AND NW AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR 3KM MODEL MATCHED UP W/THE
LATEST RADAR TRENDS BRINGING LIGHT RETURNS(25-30DBZ) ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING. WX ELEMENT WILL BE LIGHT
SHOWERS. IR SATL IMAGERY SHOWED SOME CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS QUEBEC
TOWARD WNW AREAS. OBS AND CEILING PLOTS INDICATE CLOUD DECK
BETWEEN 5 AND 8K FT. 05Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD WEAK RIDGE MOVING E
W/WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARD QUEBEC. TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AS
WELL TO MATCH THE LATEST CONDITIONS.
GENERALLY EXPECT PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT...THOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS LATE IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER DISTURBANCE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD
COVER.
THE FOCUS FOR SATURDAY DEAL W/UPPER TROUGH & COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THEN SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT
LOOKS LIKE THINGS SHOULD FIRE UP A LITTLE EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY
ANTICIPATED, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE FAR
NORTHWEST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND INTO INTERIOR DOWNEAST BY EARLY
EVENING. 0-6KM SHEAR LOOKS GOOD AT 40-45 KT, ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES 5.5-6.5 C/KM. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE MODELS INDICATE SB
CAPES OF 1100+J/KG, THIS IS LIKELY OVERDONE AND THE MORE MODEST
600-1000 J/KG SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. THIS ALONG WITH A DRY LAYER
ALOFT COULD SERVE TO LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. THE BIGGEST THREAT
WOULD BE HAIL GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT, THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN ANY STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO TAP THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT. THIS THINKING FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH SPC, WHICH HAS CONTINUED
TO INCLUDE ALL OF INTERIOR MAINE IN A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK IN
THEIR LATEST DAY 2 OUTLOOK. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT ENHANCED WORDING
IN TOMORROW`S FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PINE TREE STATE...WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE AFFECTING OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...AND THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW SWINGING EWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. THE FEATURES WILL
PRODUCE THEIR OWN ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS...WITH THE SECOND
HAVING MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PRECIP. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER
80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A TROUGH DIGGING INTO EASTERN CANADA WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SOME
COOLER WEATHER COMING IN DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
COMING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE AIR BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER ON TUESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR
WILL THEN FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS QUEBEC.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH ON
WEDNESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR A DRY DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO FRIDAY BEFORE A
DEEPER AND STRONGER TROUGH APPROACHES OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SATURDAY THEN A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD FRONT AND CROSS FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. MVFR AND EVEN LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTION ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.
SHORT TERM: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OUR FCST AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. REDUCED CIGS AND
VSBYS WILL PROBABLY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ALSO...STRONG WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS ON MONDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
SHORT TERM: WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT COASTAL MARINE ZONES ON MONDAY.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PITTSBURGH PA
1206 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WITH NOON UPDATE...UPDATED WINDS AND SKY COVER THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. STILL DEBATED ADDING SOME PRECIPITATION
INTO THE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT WITH MOST RECENT RUNS OF
THE HRRR SHOWING LESS PRECIPITATION THAN EARLIER RUNS AND PLENTY
OF DRY AIR BELOW 5000 FEET...WITH GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A BRIEF
SPRINKLE WILL NOT REMAIN OUT OF THE QUESTION. NEAR AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVERHEAD TOWARD EVENING...WITH SKIES
CLEARING AND SOME VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ANOTHER DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY SUNDAY...THEN A DEEPENING AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES INTO MONDAY. UPPER TROUGH AND A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT STALLING SOUTH OF THE
MASON DIXON LINE. ANOTHER HARD TO TIME FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE
ALONG THE FRONT SOMETIME TUESDAY...AND HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH CLOSER TO FRONT. A GRADUAL COOLING
TREND BY TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES MOVING A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN US THROUGH THE
LONG TERM WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO HELP DEEPEN IT THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN SEASONAL AVERAGES. BY LATE IN THE WEEK...MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP AND LIFT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE. BUT...WITH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY OPTED TO STAY
CLOSER TO WPC GUIDANCE VALUES...WHICH KEEP CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL VFR WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH DRY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SUPPRESSING PRECIP UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT.
OUTLOOK...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
RESTRICTION POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH AND PASSAGE
OF A MONDAY COLD FRONT.
&&
.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.
LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.
MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.
WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AT KIWD/KCMX/KSAW. LARGE MASS OF
LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF THE GREAT LAKES
WILL ROTATE SE...ARRIVING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT AT KCMX AND THEN
EXPANDING TO KIWD/KSAW MON MORNING. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP TO NEAR THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW MON.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA/SPRINKLES AS
WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
324 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE GREAT LKS BTWN CLOSED UPR LO OVER HUDSON BAY AND RDG ACROSS THE
WRN CONUS. THE 12Z INL/GRB RAOBS SHOW A RELATIVELY DRY...CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...SO THE DIURNAL CU THAT POPPED UP HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
SHALLOW WITH LARGE SCALE DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE
DOMINATING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS OVER THE SE CWA E OF ESCANABA...
WHERE RADAR INDICATES A FEW SHOWERS HAVE POPPED UP IN AN AREA CLOSER
TO SOME DEEPER MSTR/LESS CAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z APX
RAOB AND WHERE LLVL CNVGC HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY LK BREEZE CNVGC.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...A SHRTWV IS DROPPING SEWD THRU MANITOBA. THERE IS
A BAND OF CLDS AND A FEW SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AXIS OF HIER H7 RH
IN AREA OF DPVA/H7-5 QVECTOR CNVGC MOVING INTO NW ONTARIO AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. FARTHER AWAY...ANOTHER SHRTWV TOPPING WRN RDG IS
MOVING ESEWD THRU SASKATCHEWAN.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON SHOWER/TS CHANCES
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH THE TWO SHRTWVS NOTED ABOVE.
TNGT...FIRST SHRTWV OVER MANITOBA IS FCST TO SLIDE SEWD THRU NW
ONTARIO...WITH SHARPER DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC REMAINING TO THE
N. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL FLOW IS FCST TO BACK TOWARD THE WSW TO THE S OF
THE TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE...GUIDANCE INDICATES THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE MSTR CNVGC WL REMAIN TO THE S IN WI...JUST BRUSHING THE
BORDER. WITH THE DISCONNECT BTWN THIS MOISTENING TO THE S AND THE
MORE IMPRESSIVE DYNAMIC SUPPORT REMAINING TO THE N...SUSPECT PCPN
OVER MUCH OF UPR MI WL BE RATHER LIMITED BTWN AXES OF HIER POPS TO
THE N AND ALONG THE SRN CWA/WI. INCRSG PWAT AND WSW FLOW WL TEND TO
LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP DROP.
SUN...DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV NOW MOVING
THRU SASKATCHEWAN IS FCST TO ARRIVE OVER SLOW MOVING...WEAKENING
COLD FNT THAT WL BE DROPPING SLOWLY SE ACRS THE CWA ATTENDANT TO
FIRST DISTURBANCE EXITING INTO QUEBEC. SOME OF THE MODELS...
ESPECIALLY THE 12Z GFS...ALSO HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
ENHANCED UPR DVGC IN RRQ OF EXITING H3 JET MAX SUPPORTING THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE AND EXIT REGION OF INCOMING JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH
2ND SHRTWV. SINCE THIS FORCING WL BE ARRIVING DURING PERIOD OF
DAYTIME HEATING...SUSPECT SHOWERS/TS WL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. SO
TENDED TO BUMP POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
WITH INCRSG H85-5 RH...THERE ARE CONCERNS ABOUT HOW MORE CLDS WL
IMPACT SFC DESTABILIZATION. THE 12Z NAM SHOWS MUCAPE AS HI AS 2500-
3000 J/KG OVER THE SCENTRAL UNDER AREA OF STEEP H7-5 LAPSE RATES
APRCHG 8C/KM PER THE THE 12Z GFS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THE BULK OF THE PCPN WL FALL ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FNT
AND THERE WL BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT SUG THE NAM FCST
MUCAPE IS TOO HI...TS THAT FORM ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FNT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SCENTRAL COULD TURN STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DEEP
LYR SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS. IN FACT...THE NEW SPC OUTLOOK FOR SUN AS
SHIFTED THE NRN EDGE OF MARGINAL RISK FOR SVR STORMS AS FAR N AS SRN
MNM COUNTY. POPS WL DIMINISH FM THE NW BY MID/LATE AFTN FOLLOWING
ARRIVAL OF SUBSIDENCE/MID LVL DRYING FOLLOWING THE SHRTWV.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
IMPACTS...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GREATER MOISTURE WILL HAVE A
POSITIVE IMPACT ON FIRE WEATHER...AT LEAST SOMEWHAT LOWERING
CONCERNS.
A TROUGH/COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY OUT
OF THE AREA BY 00Z MON AS THE UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER
HUDSON BAY MOVES S INTO ONTARIO. AS THE LOW MOVES FROM EXTREME NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z MON TO THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER E OF LAKE SUPERIOR
BY 00Z WED...THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR (850MB TEMPS OF 3-4C) WILL
SLIDE INTO THE CWA. THE COLDER MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS MON THROUGH TUE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASED AND
SUBTLE SHORTWAVES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH. SFC TEMPS WILL BE 7-10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL
BE FROM THE MID 40S INLAND TO THE MID 50S NEAR THE GREAT LAKES.
TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT WILL SEE A SFC RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD...WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TUE NIGHT TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING INTO
THE 30S AND WED NIGHT MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND RETURN FLOW
TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TO CONCERNING LEVELS.
THE REST OF THE PERIOD THU THROUGH SAT IS QUITE A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN
IN EXACT DETAILS AS CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE DRIVEN LARGELY BY
SHORTWAVES. SLIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIP EACH DAY AS GIVEN BY CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE IS REASONABLE...SO WILL LEAVE THAT IN THE FORECAST.
ALSO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTN WL DIMINISH THIS EVNG WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/MIXING. ALTHOUGH A PASSING DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
-SHRA TO UPR MI LATE TNGT...LLVL DRY AIR INDICATES VFR CONDITIONS WL
PREDOMINATE EVEN IF ANY OF THE SHOWERS PASSES OVER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. THERE WL ALSO BE SOME MARGINAL LLWS OVERNGT WITH A
STRENGTHENING WSW FLOW ABOVE NEAR SFC STABLE LYR. THE APPROACH OF A
STRONGER DISTURBANCE ON SUN WL BRING A BETTER CHC FOR SOME SHOWERS
AND PERHAPS A TS...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD STILL PREDOMINATE WITH
LINGERING LLVL DRY AIR.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL SWEEP A PAIR OF TROFS
ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND SUN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
10-20KT RANGE. HI PRES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES WILL MOVE OVER THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...KEEPING WINDS UNDER 20 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL CLOUD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AN EARLY LOOK AT SOME OF THE HIGH RES CAMS SHOWED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
SOME ACCAS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOST OF THOSE
MODELS INDICATE THAT IS NEAR WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
FORM.
WE WILL NOT UPDATE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. NOT ALL MODELS
INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND THE LATEST SPC HRRR OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS AND
HAVE CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AT 400 AM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE TRYING TO RESOLVE
VARIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH/SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
MN. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.
IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS...TODAY SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY DAY. AGAIN
WE WILL CARRY SMALL POPS FAR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SHOULD SEE THE LEAST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THINK
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE SOUTH COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...AND
THERE COULD BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF A BRAINERD TO HAYWARD LINE...WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. LESSER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 80 FURTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
OVERALL A SEASONAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...A WELCOME RELIEF
TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS WHICH HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD MONDAY AND
PERHAPS TUESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
MON/TUES...STACKED LOW MEANDERING OVER HUDSON BAY WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH WIDESPREAD WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AROUND IT THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
EDGING INTO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT SOME WEAK LIFT AT
LOW/MID LEVELS AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE COOL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN/MON/TUES NIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE...DEPENDING ON
HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RANGE. LOWS WED NIGHT WARMER DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WAA...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THURS/FRI/SAT...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT
MOVES EAST IS UNCERTAIN. ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN...BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
RESULTING IN A DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHLAND AS PRECIP IS FORCED
SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF SCENARIO
PLAY OUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT DUE TO LITTLE INSTABILITY ALOFT. TEMPS SEASONABLE IN MOST
SCENERIES...AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MILD IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF -SHRA
AND -TSRA THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDER WILL BE FOR KBRD AND KHYR THIS EVENING TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT...SO FELT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN A PERIOD OF VCTS
FOR THOSE AIRPORTS. LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THUNDER FOR
KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BUT SHOWERS WILL LIKELY DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED THUNDER WITHIN THOSE SHOWERS. THERE
COULD BE IFR/MVFR CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EARLY
SUNDAY...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE
FORECASTS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 81 60 80 55 / 10 40 40 0
INL 79 51 76 50 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 85 58 82 54 / 30 30 20 0
HYR 82 57 81 52 / 10 40 40 0
ASX 81 59 81 55 / 0 40 50 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
852 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 845 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
CLEAR SKIES COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A LITTLE
MID LEVEL CLOUD NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AN EARLY LOOK AT SOME OF THE HIGH RES CAMS SHOWED AN AREA OF
SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MINNESOTA
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST. THERE IS
SOME ACCAS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MOST OF THOSE
MODELS INDICATE THAT IS NEAR WHERE THE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY
FORM.
WE WILL NOT UPDATE TO INCLUDE SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. NOT ALL MODELS
INDICATE THESE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND THE LATEST SPC HRRR OVER
THE PAST FEW RUNS HAVE DELAYED THE ARRIVAL OF THESE SHOWERS AND
HAVE CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE. WE WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE AS
NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AT 400 AM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WERE IN THE LOWER 60S WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
THE FOCUS FOR TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE TRYING TO RESOLVE
VARIOUS PRECIPITATION EVENTS. THE SHOWERS THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS MORNING WERE FINALLY PUSHING OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS GENERALLY FAVOR A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA
TODAY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY A SMALL POP ACROSS THE
FAR NORTH AND FAR SOUTH/SW DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE AND WARM FRONT MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
MN. THIS WEAK FEATURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SETTING THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.
IN TERMS OF SPECIFICS...TODAY SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY DAY. AGAIN
WE WILL CARRY SMALL POPS FAR NORTH AND SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH WEST WINDS.
TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN NUMBER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND THE SOUTH. CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA SHOULD SEE THE LEAST SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THINK
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE SOUTH COULD BE STRONG OVERNIGHT...AND
THERE COULD BE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AS WELL. THE PRIMARY THREAT
WOULD BE SOUTH OF A BRAINERD TO HAYWARD LINE...WITH HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ON SUNDAY...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. LESSER CHANCES ARE EXPECTED FURTHER WEST.
HIGHS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 70S IN THE ARROWHEAD TO AROUND 80 FURTHER SOUTH.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
OVERALL A SEASONAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
PERHAPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS...A WELCOME RELIEF
TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS WHICH HAVE BEEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. SOME
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD MONDAY AND
PERHAPS TUESDAY...BUT OTHERWISE DRY FOR MOST THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES...BUT
NOT VERY CONFIDENT GIVEN MODEL VARIABILITY AT THIS TIMEFRAME.
MON/TUES...STACKED LOW MEANDERING OVER HUDSON BAY WILL EVENTUALLY
DRIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO...WITH WIDESPREAD WEAK LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AROUND IT THAT MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS
EDGING INTO FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. THIS THREAT WILL BE HIGHEST ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN GFS/GEFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT SOME WEAK LIFT AT
LOW/MID LEVELS AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE COOL AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
RESULT IN HIGHS AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SUN/MON/TUES NIGHT COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S
ACROSS LOCATIONS AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.
WED...A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS DRIFTS
EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST RESULTING IN AT LEAST SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE...DEPENDING ON
HOW UPSTREAM CONVECTION EVOLVES. HIGHS A FEW DEGREES WARMER...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 70S RANGE. LOWS WED NIGHT WARMER DUE TO
CLOUD COVER AND WEAK WAA...IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.
THURS/FRI/SAT...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...BUT HOW IT EVOLVES AS IT
MOVES EAST IS UNCERTAIN. ECMWF...WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN...BRINGS THIS SYSTEM TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST
WHILE THE GFS DEPICTS A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF CANADA
RESULTING IN A DRIER SCENARIO FOR THE NORTHLAND AS PRECIP IS FORCED
SOUTH. USED A BLEND OF AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WHICH RESULTED IN SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. SHOULD THE ECMWF SCENARIO
PLAY OUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN EVENT DUE TO LITTLE INSTABILITY ALOFT. TEMPS SEASONABLE IN MOST
SCENERIES...AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS MILD IN THE 50S TO
LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INCREASING CLOUDS
LATE TODAY WITH TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
TOWARDS THE MORNING AND SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA IN THE EVENING TOWARDS THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
NEITHER AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE FLIGHT
CONDITIONS...THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR IFR CEILINGS TOWARDS THE
MORNING HOURS IF ANY SITES RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAIN AMOUNTS...BUT
AT THIS POINT THAT LOOKS UNLIKELY.
BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 12 KTS GUSTING TO
NEAR 20 KTS AT TIMES...BECOMING NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 81 60 80 55 / 10 40 40 0
INL 79 51 76 50 / 20 50 30 10
BRD 85 58 82 54 / 20 20 20 0
HYR 82 57 81 52 / 10 40 40 0
ASX 81 59 81 55 / 10 40 50 0
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
923 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection continues to move into northern Missouri at this hour.
Storm mode has transition from cellular to a more linear/bowing
segment. The airmass to the south of this activity is more stable
as compared to northern Missouri. That said, the trend for cells
to organize do maintain a risk of cold pool production and a
longer life span. Will continue to monitor radar/observation
trends and potentially increase PoPs across central Missouri.
UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection has struggled mightily to fire in the airmass across
the region so far today. There has been a lone shower in
Texas/Shannon county, otherwise the cumulus field has begun to
shrink. Unless additional activity can fire in the next hour,
chances for rain in the near term are quite low.
We are watching convection firing to our north across Iowa and
Nebraska. Recent HRRR runs push a decaying line of showers into
central Missouri around/after midnight. If the cells to the north
can congeal and organize a cold pool, such a solution is
plausible. However, there are some negatives. The airmass overhead
is on the dry side and considerably less unstable. After sunset,
this airmass will only get more stable, so support for convection
will be tied to any organization/outflow boundary potential. For
now, will keep PoPs as is and watch incoming soundings and
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s. Dewpoints,
especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able
to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly
comfortable by early August standards.
A few isolated thunderstorms aren`t entirely out of the question
this afternoon across south central Missouri, but most locations
should remain dry through sunset. Anything that does develop this
afternoon is expected to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of
daytime heating.
A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave moving through the
Great Lakes will move south toward the region tomorrow, though at
this point it appears that it will stall out just north and east of
the CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary tomorrow, but it`s very much in question how far south
activity will make it before fizzling out. For now will maintain
slight chance PoPs along the northern and eastern periphery of the
forecast area. For most of the region tomorrow should be very
similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Rain chances will then begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening, as shortwave undercuts the upper level ridge and moves east
across the Great Plains toward the area. One or more complexes of
storms are expected to develop and move toward/through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low level jet develops over
southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Along with the actual MCS(s), remnant
MCVs and/or outflow boundaries likely adding complexity to the
overall picture. Any severe weather threat will be highly
conditional on clearing and associated destabilization, and this is
a short term forecast issue that likely won`t become clear until at
least Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Additional storms will then be possible Thursday during the
afternoon, as well as again that night as the LLJ ramps up over the
region. Thunderstorm chances will likely persist into at least part
of the day on Friday.
Temperatures during the latter portion of the workweek should remain
around or just below average, as convection and cloud cover keep
things from heating up too much.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light tonight, becoming southwesterly during the day Monday. Aside
from some mid/high level cloud cover, no sensible weather of any
significance is expected.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
643 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2015
...Updated Aviation Section...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection has struggled mightily to fire in the airmass across
the region so far today. There has been a lone shower in
Texas/Shannon county, otherwise the cumulus field has begun to
shrink. Unless additional activity can fire in the next hour,
chances for rain in the near term are quite low.
We are watching convection firing to our north across Iowa and
Nebraska. Recent HRRR runs push a decaying line of showers into
central Missouri around/after midnight. If the cells to the north
can congeal and organize a cold pool, such a solution is
plausible. However, there are some negatives. The airmass overhead
is on the dry side and considerably less unstable. After sunset,
this airmass will only get more stable, so support for convection
will be tied to any organization/outflow boundary potential. For
now, will keep PoPs as is and watch incoming soundings and
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s. Dewpoints,
especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able
to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly
comfortable by early August standards.
A few isolated thunderstorms aren`t entirely out of the question
this afternoon across south central Missouri, but most locations
should remain dry through sunset. Anything that does develop this
afternoon is expected to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of
daytime heating.
A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave moving through the
Great Lakes will move south toward the region tomorrow, though at
this point it appears that it will stall out just north and east of
the CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary tomorrow, but it`s very much in question how far south
activity will make it before fizzling out. For now will maintain
slight chance PoPs along the northern and eastern periphery of the
forecast area. For most of the region tomorrow should be very
similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Rain chances will then begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening, as shortwave undercuts the upper level ridge and moves east
across the Great Plains toward the area. One or more complexes of
storms are expected to develop and move toward/through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low level jet develops over
southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Along with the actual MCS(s), remnant
MCVs and/or outflow boundaries likely adding complexity to the
overall picture. Any severe weather threat will be highly
conditional on clearing and associated destabilization, and this is
a short term forecast issue that likely won`t become clear until at
least Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Additional storms will then be possible Thursday during the
afternoon, as well as again that night as the LLJ ramps up over the
region. Thunderstorm chances will likely persist into at least part
of the day on Friday.
Temperatures during the latter portion of the workweek should remain
around or just below average, as convection and cloud cover keep
things from heating up too much.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds will be
light tonight, becoming southwesterly during the day Monday. Aside
from some mid/high level cloud cover, no sensible weather of any
significance is expected.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS HAS FORMED ALONG A COLD FRONT IN
SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. BELIEVE WEAKENING
SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND A DECREASE IN INSTABILITY OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SHOULD WEAKEN ACTIVITY SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE
EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
EVENING IN CASE IT MAKES IT TO KUIN. IF IT DOES HOLD
TOGETHER...BEST GUESS ON TIMING OF THESE STORMS THAT COULD AFFECT
KUIN WOULD BE 0400 TO 0600 UTC. OTHERWISE...FRONT SHOULD SLOWLY
MAKE ITS WAY DOWN TOWARD KCOU AND THE METRO TAF SITES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. RELIED ON THE GFS IN TERMS OF BOTH FRONTAL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND DO AGREE THAT FRONT LIKELY WILL
PUSH SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR. CONSEQUENTLY...BELIEVE
BEST CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON MAY ACTUALLY BE
SOUTH OF KCOU AND METRO TAF SITES BUT DID LEAVE A VC GROUP IN
THERE FOR NOW AND HOPEFULLY SEE A BIT MORE MODEL AGREEMENT WITH
SOUTHWARD PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
COMPLEX OF SHOWERS/STORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE LATE THIS EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT NORTH OF
LAMBERT FIELD. COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE
MONDAY MORNING BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA A LA
GFS. HAVE CONCERNS THAT WHAT LITTLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DOES FORM
MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH OF AREA BUT LEFT A VC GROUP IN FOR
NOW FOR CONTINUITY SAKE AND WILL EVALUATE 0000 UTC MODEL GUDANCE
TO SEE IF THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.
GOSSELIN
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 77 90 74 87 / 20 20 40 30
QUINCY 68 84 65 82 / 20 10 30 30
COLUMBIA 69 89 70 86 / 10 20 20 40
JEFFERSON CITY 71 91 71 87 / 10 20 20 30
SALEM 71 88 67 85 / 20 20 20 30
FARMINGTON 72 91 72 88 / 20 20 20 30
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1239 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SPECIFICS FOR KUIN: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. A
DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IN SOUTHERN IA OVERNIGHT. IF THE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX DEVELOPS, THEN SH/TS COULD REACH KUIN AFTER 02/06Z.
SPECIFICS FOR KCOU: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INVOF A SURFACE BOUNDARY
WHICH WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MO AT TAF ISSUANCE.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL, KSUS, KCPS: INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY THEN TURN SOUTHWESTERLY LATE IN THE TAF
PERIOD AFTER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS MOVED OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A PERIOD OF LIGHT TO NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT AT SOME LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY KSUS IN THE RIVER VALLEY.
THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TO THE NORTH COULD REACH
KSTL/KSUS/KCPS AFTER 02/10Z HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INTRODUCE VCTS IN THE TAF ATTM.
KANOFSKY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1204 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
...Short Term and 18Z Aviation Update...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
Have added a very low end chance for showers/thunderstorms across
central Missouri for this afternoon. A weak mid level impulse
will continue to move south across northern and northeastern
Missouri. Higher theta-e air is in place north of the Ozark
Plateau, and this combined with the mid level wave may be just
enough to kick off a couple of storms this afternoon. Activity
should be quite isolated and dissipate by sunset.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with
mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower
to middle 60s. Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday`s
weather. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. Humidity values
will still be rather low which means the heat index will be near
the actual air temperature. The latest HiRes short term models
like the HRRR and ARW show a very small potential for a spotty
shower developing this afternoon across the central Missouri area
down into the eastern Ozarks. Not sold on this potential at this
time and will only leave in a silent 10 percent chance for this
happening this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
For the end of the weekend into early next week...The upper level
ridge remains west of the region with the center near the west
Texas area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest
flow. Southerly winds at the surface will help bring back the
humidity and low level moisture. Temperatures will gradually
increase a degree or two each day with most areas reaching the
lower to middle 90s by Monday. The heat index will climb back into
the upper 90s to around 100 possible.
The weather pattern becomes somewhat unsettled by the middle of
next week. The first of a couple mid level shortwaves will move
across the top of the ridge over the western U.S. early next week.
This shortwave looks fairly decent and will impact the area on
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The latest guidance has
moved up the timing a little bit since the previous runs. A weak
frontal boundary also will be stalled out across the Missouri
Ozarks for the middle of next week.
Another impulse will affect the area late Thursday into Friday.
Will not get too specific with timing this far out but it does
appear that there will be several rounds of thunderstorms possible
Tuesday through Friday for the area with a more active weather
pattern likely. Temperatures will also be slightly lower for the
middle and end of next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
Overall average rainfall will be in the 1 to 2 inch range for next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR conditions are expected at all three terminals through the
next 24 hours. Winds will remain light and variable through the
night at all terminals, with southwesterly breezes developing by tomorrow
morning at JLN.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Boxell
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
615 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREV TAFS. CU WITH BASES AROUND 4 TO 5 KFT
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SWLY AOB 8 KTS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
TSRA AT UIN LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT OUT OF TAF ATTM DUE
TO HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING WITH BEST CHANCES NEAR THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD.
TILLY
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
549 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with
mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower
to middle 60s. Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday`s
weather. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. Humidity values
will still be rather low which means the heat index will be near
the actual air temperature. The latest HiRes short term models
like the HRRR and ARW show a very small potential for a spotty
shower developing this afternoon across the central Missouri area
down into the eastern Ozarks. Not sold on this potential at this
time and will only leave in a silent 10 percent chance for this
happening this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
For the end of the weekend into early next week...The upper level
ridge remains west of the region with the center near the west
Texas area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest
flow. Southerly winds at the surface will help bring back the
humidity and low level moisture. Temperatures will gradually
increase a degree or two each day with most areas reaching the
lower to middle 90s by Monday. The heat index will climb back into
the upper 90s to around 100 possible.
The weather pattern becomes somewhat unsettled by the middle of
next week. The first of a couple mid level shortwaves will move
across the top of the ridge over the western U.S. early next week.
This shortwave looks fairly decent and will impact the area on
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The latest guidance has
moved up the timing a little bit since the previous runs. A weak
frontal boundary also will be stalled out across the Missouri
Ozarks for the middle of next week.
Another impulse will affect the area late Thursday into Friday.
Will not get too specific with timing this far out but it does
appear that there will be several rounds of thunderstorms possible
Tuesday through Friday for the area with a more active weather
pattern likely. Temperatures will also be slightly lower for the
middle and end of next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
Overall average rainfall will be in the 1 to 2 inch range for next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday Morning)
Issued at 545 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions will continue through
tonight. Surface winds will remain light and variable as high
pressure drifts through the region.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS IN AN SMALL AREA OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. RECENT RUNS OF THE RAP SHOW THIS FORCING
ERODING AROUND 12Z. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR
IT TO ACT ON. HAVE KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI AND
WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...PARTICULARLY OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WHICH WILL LIKELY PUSH A MCS
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER IOWA INTO INTO THE NORTHERN CWA.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 18-20C. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB BACK INTO THE LOW-
MID 90S WITH MIXING UP TO 850MB.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
(SUNDAY AND MONDAY)
WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA. CHANCES WILL BE LOWER ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY AS CONVERGENCE WEAKENS ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. BOTH DAYS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM WITH MOS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID 90S AND
850MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR 20C.
(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
IT STILL LOOK LIKE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. BEST CHANCE WILL BE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF SHOW A NOTABLE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK BELOW NORMAL AS 850MB
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15C.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
A FEW SHOWERS STILL REMAIN NEAR KUIN TONIGHT AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...A MOSTLY
DRY FORECAST IS IN STORE WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY AND TRACK EASTWARD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. QUINCY MAY BE
AFFECTED TOWARD OR AFTER 0600 UTC BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW
SINCE IT IS SO LATE IN THE PERIOD.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
FEW SHOWERS AND MAYBE A STORM WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER AND PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ALSO EXPECTED.
GOSSELIN
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
313 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2015
...Quiet Weather Pattern This Weekend...An Unsettled Weather
Pattern Returns Middle of Next Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
It is a fairly quiet morning across the Missouri Ozarks with
mostly clear skies and temperatures rather pleasant in the lower
to middle 60s. Today will be almost a carbon copy of yesterday`s
weather. Temperatures will be in the lower 90s. Humidity values
will still be rather low which means the heat index will be near
the actual air temperature. The latest HiRes short term models
like the HRRR and ARW show a very small potential for a spotty
shower developing this afternoon across the central Missouri area
down into the eastern Ozarks. Not sold on this potential at this
time and will only leave in a silent 10 percent chance for this
happening this afternoon.
.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
For the end of the weekend into early next week...The upper level ridge
remains west of the region with the center near the west Texas
area and the Missouri Ozarks region will be in a northwest flow.
Southerly winds at the surface will help bring back the humidity
and low level moisture. Temperatures will gradually increase a
degree or two each day with most areas reaching the lower to
middle 90s by Monday. The heat index will climb back into the
upper 90s to around 100 possible.
The weather pattern becomes somewhat unsettled by the middle of
next week. The first of a couple mid level shortwaves will move
across the top of the ridge over the western U.S. early next week.
This shortwave looks fairly decent and will impact the area on
Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. The latest guidance has
moved up the timing a little bit since the previous runs. A weak
frontal boundary also will be stalled out across the Missouri
Ozarks for the middle of next week.
Another impulse will affect the area late Thursday into Friday.
Will not get too specific with timing this far out but it does
appear that there will be several rounds of thunderstorms possible
Tuesday through Friday for the area with a more active weather
pattern likely. Temperatures will also be slightly lower for the
middle and end of next week with highs in the middle to upper 80s.
Overall average rainfall will be in the 1 to 2 inch range for next
week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
VFR conditions and mostly clear skies will continue into Saturday
evening. Winds will remain light and variable.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
936 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TONIGHT
AND A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED CHANCES THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
AFTER 03/06Z. DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CHANCES ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS SOME QPF THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SCT TO ISOLD WITH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE.
TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE DAYS 2 AND 3 PERIOD INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SWD ADVANCING FRONT CURRENTLY WHICH
STALLS AND RETREATS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...UPPER
FORCING WANES AND TRANSITIONS EWD AND SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A RETURN TO STRONG SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUES THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL LOCATION. THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MAXIMIZE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT. SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS ONLY
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAN OF LATE.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL
FLATTEN THE TRANSITORY CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LEADING TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH QUICKER MOVING SUBTLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORT WAVES/ HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES...AND GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS FROM KVTN TO KONL ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 03/09Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
BKN070 AND OVC250. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
706 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS SOME QPF THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SCT TO ISOLD WITH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE.
TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE DAYS 2 AND 3 PERIOD INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SWD ADVANCING FRONT CURRENTLY WHICH
STALLS AND RETREATS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...UPPER
FORCING WANES AND TRANSITIONS EWD AND SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A RETURN TO STRONG SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUES THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL LOCATION. THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MAXIMIZE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT. SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS ONLY
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAN OF LATE.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL
FLATTEN THE TRANSITORY CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LEADING TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH QUICKER MOVING SUBTLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORT WAVES/ HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES...AND GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS FROM KVTN TO KONL ARE EXPECTED
AFTER 03/09Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH VFR CEILINGS WITH AREAS OF
BKN070 AND OVC250. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10KTS OVER WESTERN
NEBRASKA THROUGH MONDAY EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
1218 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED AND ACTUALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRAINING OF THIS CONVECTION OVER
THE SAME AREAS THE PAST FEW HOURS...COULD EVENTUALLY SEE SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS DOING A VERY POOR JOB WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...08Z HRRR SEEMS FAIRLY WELL INITIALIZED...AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IN THE MORNING FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE FOCUS THEN TURNING TO THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND TIMING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...SEVERAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...BRINING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...IN PART DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS
AREA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT BY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLES 90S...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE RIGHT PARAMETERS IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN MID WEEK.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES SO WILL USE
BLEND. GENERALLY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS TYPE PATTERN TYPICALLY MAKES IT TOUGH TO FORECAST THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. SO...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE
HIGHEST IN TIMING...COVERAGE OR EVEN CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL WE GET 12
TO 24 HOURS AWAY FROM ANY RAIN EVENT.
NONE THE LESS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY ON.
ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER AN AREA BETWEEN THE DAKOTAS AND KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THUS...WILL LEAVE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY APPEAR TO HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE SOME NEAR
SEVERE HAIL STONES AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
IN BETWEEN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WELL NORTH OF THE TERMINAL AREAS...BUT
IS ALLOWING FOR A FEW CLOUDS. THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE FURTHER NORTH THAN
BEFORE.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...JCB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED AND ACTUALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRAINING OF THIS CONVECTION OVER
THE SAME AREAS THE PAST FEW HOURS...COULD EVENTUALLY SEE SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS DOING A VERY POOR JOB WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...08Z HRRR SEEMS FAIRLY WELL INITIALIZED...AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IN THE MORNING FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE FOCUS THEN TURNING TO THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND TIMING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...SEVERAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...BRINING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...IN PART DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS
AREA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT BY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLES 90S...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE RIGHT PARAMETERS IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN MID WEEK.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES SO WILL USE
BLEND. GENERALLY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS TYPE PATTERN TYPICALLY MAKES IT TOUGH TO FORECAST THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. SO...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE
HIGHEST IN TIMING...COVERAGE OR EVEN CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL WE GET 12
TO 24 HOURS AWAY FROM ANY RAIN EVENT.
NONE THE LESS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY ON.
ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER AN AREA BETWEEN THE DAKOTAS AND KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THUS...WILL LEAVE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY APPEAR TO HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE SOME NEAR
SEVERE HAIL STONES AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
IN BETWEEN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TERMINALS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ALBEIT WITH HIGH
BASES...CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR WITH ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR
VSBYS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL LIKELY STREAM
ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACCOMPANIED BY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY BREEZES. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
EVENING HOURS...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
COVERAGE...OPTED TO KEEP ONLY A VCTS MENTION FOR THE TIME BEING.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HASTINGS NE
428 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A FAIRLY CHALLENGING FORECAST THIS MORNING AS CONVECTION HAS
CONTINUED AND ACTUALLY ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH THE TRAINING OF THIS CONVECTION OVER
THE SAME AREAS THE PAST FEW HOURS...COULD EVENTUALLY SEE SOME
MINOR FLOODING IN SPOTS IF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPS.
IN THE MEANTIME...EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE STRETCHING
FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING TO CONTINUE TO SPARK SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
WHILE MOST GUIDANCE IS DOING A VERY POOR JOB WITH THE ONGOING
CONVECTION...08Z HRRR SEEMS FAIRLY WELL INITIALIZED...AND HAVE
LEANED TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IN THE MORNING FORECAST. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...WITH THE FOCUS THEN TURNING TO THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DROP TOWARDS THE LOCAL
AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE AND TIMING FROM THIS DISTURBANCE IS
STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...SEVERAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS
FEATURE...BRINING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH CAPE BUILDING AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE AND AMPLE SHEAR IN PLACE...IN PART DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THIS
AREA...EXPECT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURE WISE...EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE REGION WITH MOST LOCATIONS THAT ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT BY
AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLES 90S...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
ALSO EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE RIGHT PARAMETERS IN PLACE...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS APPEAR LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
BIGGEST CONCERNS FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD...CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN MID WEEK.
MODELS IN RELATIVE AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES SO WILL USE
BLEND. GENERALLY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS TYPE PATTERN TYPICALLY MAKES IT TOUGH TO FORECAST THE SPEED AND
STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH. SO...CONFIDENCE IS NOT THE
HIGHEST IN TIMING...COVERAGE OR EVEN CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL WE GET 12
TO 24 HOURS AWAY FROM ANY RAIN EVENT.
NONE THE LESS...THE MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING A
NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM MONDAY ON.
ALSO...MODELS SUGGEST A SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK WILL
TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE OVER AN AREA BETWEEN THE DAKOTAS AND KANSAS
ON MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY. THUS...WILL LEAVE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN FORECAST. IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY APPEAR TO HAVE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR THAT A FEW COULD PRODUCE SOME NEAR
SEVERE HAIL STONES AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS.
IN BETWEEN ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY
IMPACT THE TERMINALS...AND COVERED THIS POSSIBILITY WITH A VCTS
FOR THE TIME BEING. OVERALL...A FAIRLY WEAK GRADIENT IS IN
PLACE...SO SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10KTS OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW.
&&
.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSSI
LONG TERM...EDDY
AVIATION...ROSSI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN WARM
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY...ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS.
CONVECTION TIED TO SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING SURFACE FRONT HAD CLEARED THE
SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA BORDERS LATE LAST EVENING. THAT BOUNDARY
IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT NORTHWARD TODAY AS A WARM FRONT IN RESPONSE
TO LOWERING PRESSURES TO OUR NORTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DIVING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SOUTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL FOLLOW WARM FRONT IN
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH POTENT AFTERNOON
HEATING...WILL PRODUCE MOST-UNSTABLE CAPES WELL OVER 2500 J/KG.
ENHANCED NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATTENDANT TO APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE WILL INDUCE STRONG 0-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT
AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW INCREASES. VEERING WIND PROFILES
WITH MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR VECTORS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING
STORMS SUGGESTING ALL MODES OF SEVERE WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH TORNADO POTENTIAL HIGHEST NEAR WARM FRONT IN
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...AND ESPECIALLY NEAR
TRIPLE POINT WHERE SOUTHEASTERLY-ADVANCING TROUGH/DRYLINE INTERSECTS
WARM FRONT.
EXPECT STORMS CURRENTLY FIRING IN SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO
CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO GRADUALLY WORK EAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS
MORNING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS REACHING OUR WESTERN
CWA. BETTER CONVECTIVE CHANCES COME THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED...WITH FOCUS GEARED TOWARD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG WARM FRONT...WHICH SHOULD LIE ACROSS NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA INTO WEST CENTRAL IOWA. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET DURING
THE EVENING WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH
PROPAGATION VECTORS SHOWING A SOUTHEAST PROGRESSION ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA. EXPECT MOST CONVECTION TO BE
WELL EAST OF WESTERN IOWA BY SUNRISE SUNDAY...BUT SOME LINGERING
INSTABILITY/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING IN SOUTHWEST IOWA.
MOST OF SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA DURING THE MORNING. HOWEVER LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE BEING SWEPT SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW EXITING SHORTWAVE...REACHING INTERSTATE
80 BY EARLY AFTERNOON THEN CLEARING OUR SOUTHERN BORDER BY LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT POINTS TO TEMPERATURES
WELL INTO THE 90S OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA...BUT NORTHERLY
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGEST HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 IN OUR NORTH. AND
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...DEW POINTS IN THE MID 60S...REMAINING OVER
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MUCAPES
WILL AGAIN TOP 2500 J/KG AS FRONT INVADES. THUS WILL INTRODUCE SOME
SMALL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH THEN.
MONDAY MAY BRING A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO TODAY AS SUNDAY COLD FRONT
STALLS IN NORTHERN KANSAS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN RETREATS BACK NORTH INTO
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND WESTERN IOWA MONDAY. SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL AGAIN LOWER PRESSURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS...INDUCING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO OUR AREA. WE
SHOULD AGAIN SEE CONVECTION FIRING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT.
EXACT PLACEMENT OF THAT FRONT WILL NEED TO BE REFINED LATER...BUT
WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS OVER MOST OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHER CHANCES NEAR AND NORTH OF A COLUMBUS TO NEBRASKA
CITY AND CLARINDA LINE. SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...30-
40KT...AGAIN SUGGEST SOME SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO EJECT SHORTWAVES INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE IS SOME INDICATION UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
SHIFT INTO THE PLAINS FOR A SHORT TIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT...KEEPING
THAT PERIOD DRY...BUT WE QUICKLY GET BACK INTO THE UNSETTLED
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN LATE IN THE WEEK.
MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN OR NEAR OUR CWA
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE MORE DEFINED MID LEVEL WAVE SWEEPS
FRONT/MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST LATER TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
GFS SHOWS OUR AREA ON COOL SIDE OF FRONTAL SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...SO
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL. HOWEVER SEVERE POTENTIAL RETURNS BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHEN MAIN STORM TRACK SHIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH
BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUPPORTIVE SHEAR PATTERN BACK INTO
OUR AREA.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK LOOK COOLER...AVERAGING THE LOWER 80S
MOST AREAS...AS CLOUDS/PRECIP/THERMAL PROFILE KEEP A LID ON WARMING.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TRENDS FROM MOST RECENT HRRR MODEL RUNS.
SOME PATCHY FOG APPEARS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AFTER 09Z AND MAINLY
AROUND KOMA. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OR SO. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT
CHANCE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND THEN DEVELOP/MOVE SOUTHEAST.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR NOW. MENTIONED SOME
VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS AT KOFK WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST AND
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY AFFECT THAT LOCATION FIRST.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DERGAN
LONG TERM...DERGAN
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
851 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INLFUENCE THE LOCAL REGION.
CENTRAL NEVADA CAN ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHILE NORTHERN
NEVADA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A SUNDAY EVENT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...INCREASED TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA A COUPLE
OF DEGREES EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN UPPER 90S IN MANY VALLEY
LOCATIONS TODAY DUE TO STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AND PLENTY OF
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 249 AM /
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES
RIDGING TO THE EAST...WITH MOISTURE FLUX INBOUND FROM OUR NEIGHBOR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE H5
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN EVENT WITH THIS MONSOON EPISODE.
THE NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH DEPICT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IMPACTING
THE LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NAM BEING A BIT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE QPF. THE HRRR KICKS INTO GEAR AROUND 18Z SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...WITH MERITED BUMPING UP POPS THIS PACKAGE...WHILE THE
GFS40 IS SLOW TO BRING THE QPF INTO THE LKN CWA TODAY...WHILE THE
NAM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. SUNDAY...EXPECT A ANOTHER ROUND OF
QPF...ALBEIT FURTHER NORTH. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SOME MARKET
DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS PAST 24 HRS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND
IS A SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NIGGLING
DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER FEATURES PRETTY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN AN ACCURATE FORECAST...BUT PRECISION IS OKAY
STILL.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ON EAST AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO
PERSIST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY DRIER FLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTENDANT
TO THE PACIFIC LOW TRYING TO ABUT THE COASTAL AREAS.
PWS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OF AN ISOLATED NATURE THROUGH THE EARLIER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE
FORECAST RANGE...DWINDLING LATER IN THE PACKAGE. HAVE NOT
DIFFERENTIATED BETWEEN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR
OUT FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE...SO HAVE STAYED TO "TRW" WORDING.
THIS IS A HYBRID SITUATION WITH SOME DRY AND SOME WETTISH
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST STORMS WILL RAIN...AND SOME WILL HAVE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS.
AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ENABLE
THUNDERSTORMS AT NEAR KTPH AND KELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS AND VIRGA.
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTER.
FIRE WEATHER...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WELL DEFINED
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/CO AND A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE
RUNNING UP THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING THIS MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. BUT BASICALLY ITS KNOCKING ON THE
BACK DOOR OF 457...AND ONCE UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY
INTERESTING. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE CLOUD
COVERAGE INHIBITS CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
90/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
846 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWEST TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
ANY STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...SEVERAL SMALL SCALE PROCESSES AT WORK THIS MORNING.
DECAYING THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER FAR SOUTHERN MOHAVE COUNTY HAD
PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WITH NEW /BUT WEAK/ STORMS DEVELOPING
IN AN ARC FROM JUST WEST OF VIDAL JUNCTION THROUGH COTTONWOOD COVE
AND /TO A LESSER EXTENT/ EASTWARD TOWARD PEACH SPRINGS. IN
ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWED A VERY SHARP EDGE TO THE CLOUDS
FROM ROUGHLY TONOPAH TO DESERT ROCK TO WEST OF VIDAL JUNCTION...WITH
CLOUDY SKIES EAST OF THE LINE AND CLEAR SKIES WEST. THIS
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD...AND
NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
339 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RADAR QUIETED DOWN LAST EVENING NICELY IN OUR AREA, HOWEVER, OUR
BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A NEW DISTURBANCE THAT CAN
BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA IS ALREADY HELPING TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LA PAZ COUNTY. IN ADDITION, SOME WEAKER RETURNS ARE EDGING WEST
ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE AREA
TO WATCH THIS MORNING AND ALL OF THE LOCAL ARW AND NMM MODEL RUNS AS
WELL AS THE HRRR AND 00Z OPERATIONAL WRF AND EVEN THE GFS DRIVE
ACTIVITY TOWARD MOHAVE COUNTY BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHAT STATE IT WILL BE IN AS IT PUSHES ON WEST. THE
THOUGHT, GIVEN THE TIME OF THE MORNING, IS THAT MOST OF IT WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF TODAY, THIS DISTURBANCE (WITH A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED AT 500 MB) WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA IS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, BUT STARTS TO GO A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST
OVER SOCAL. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH IN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE MODELS DO SHOW A DROP IN PWATS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF INYO
AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LATER WAS VERY QUIET YESTERDAY AND
I SUSPECT TODAY OUTSIDE OF EASTERN PARTS WHERE CONVECTION COULD GET
DRIVEN INTO OUT OF ARIZONA WILL STAY DRY ONCE AGAIN. PWAT VALUES PER
IPW SENSORS CURRENTLY ARE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 1.45 INCH (LOWEST NORTH,
HIGHEST SOUTH) ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
MAY DROP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH FROM WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. THUS ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL BE THE UNLOAD
POTENTIAL IN ANY STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD. STORMS TODAY MAY BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE
LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT BUT ALSO GET A BOOST FROM OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN CLOUDIER
AND NOT AS CLOUDY AREAS AND TERRAIN. MOST MODELS SHOW QPF ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY, BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THIS AREA BUT IT
STARTS LATER AS IT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THERE UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING.
ONE CONCERN AGAIN TODAY WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOUD COVER
AS THERE IS A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND AND MORE
MAY EJECT ON IN. IF WE SEE ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO AREAS EARLY ENOUGH,
SUCH AS MOHAVE COUNTY AND EVEN CLARK COUNTY, THEN THESE AREAS MAY
GET WORKED OVER EARLY ENOUGH TO ALSO SEE CONVECTION CUT-OFF EARLIER
THIS EVENING.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, IS THE STEERING
FLOW SHOWN ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE GFS, WRF AND ECMWF. THIS IS A NOT TOO COMMON SET-UP IN THIS
AREA BUT ONE IN THE PAST THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME RATHER WHAMMY
STORMS MOVING INTO LAS VEGAS (THE JULY 18, 1994 HILTON SIGN
THUNDERSTORM THE MOST NOTABLE OF ALL BUT ALSO MORE RECENTLY JULY 19,
2013). THERE WAS ALSO AN EVENT ON JULY 11-12, 2008 THAT DID NOT
BRING MUCH WIND BUT SOME VERY INTENSE RAIN IN SPOTS. SEVERAL LOCAL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD CLARK COUNTY OUT OF LINCOLN COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS OF THIS WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL WRF. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHAT WILL UNFOLD IS LOW, BUT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE DRIVEN INTO A HIGH DCAPE
ENVIRONMENT (500-1000 J/KG OVER LAS VEGAS, FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS) FROM THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER
SOMETHING. WE COULD ALSO SEE THINGS NOT PAN OUT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS
RARE SET-UP WHICH HAS BEEN A HIGH IMPACT ONE IN THE PAST, THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS WHERE IT IS
OUT. SOME MODELS ALSO LINGER CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF ESMERALDA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES LATE AS WELL.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
THUS WE SIDED WITH GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA
TOMORROW. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWEST
OVER MORE OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL FURTHER CUT-BACK ON THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AS THERE IS A 50 KT+ JET STREAK APPROACHING SOCAL
WHICH MAY AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT GO NEAR THE CREST INTO
THE EASTERN SLOPES AND OWENS VALLEY. ALSO WORTH WATCHING WILL BE THE
ADVANCING MOIST-DRY INTERFACE, WHICH MAY HELP TOUCH OFF STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE EXTRA SUNSHINE AND
LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS START TO DROP BELOW AN INCH IN MOST OF
THE AREA).
WITH THE JET STREAK ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET GOING AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA, OWENS VALLEY AND ESMERALDA COUNTY FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WE
SIDED WITH THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...YIELDING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS
AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REIGN
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW TO GENERATE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS EVENING IN MOISTURE MAKING A RETURN TO
THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THEIR ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLE RUNS GENERALLY HAVE THE SAME IDEA...WITH THE NORMAL
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY THIS FAR OUT. WITH THIS FEATURE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND...IT WILL AID IN FUNNELING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER MOHAVE COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA.
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TO ALLOW FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RESULT. ASIDE FROM INCREASED STORM CHANCES...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEKEND AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA.
DESPITE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS FOR CONSISTENCY...AS CHANGES IN
THE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITIONING OF KEY FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE
RESULTANT WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT THEY MAY TRIGGER. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TODAY AS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS FROM ARIZONA. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THE VALLEY FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW TO WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AWAY FROM
SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS AT 5-10 KTS. MAINLY BKN CIGS AOA 10K-15K FEET WITH BASES
LOWERING BELOW 8K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA IS LOW
THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL TRY TO BASE TAF TIMING ON RADAR AND HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS IN EARLIER PERIODS AND ADJUST AS NEED BE.
OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
KIYK-KEED-KHII. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY AND CIGS REDUCED TO
MVFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
NEVADA, POTENTIALLY GOING UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 6-12 KTS
WITH MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET EXCEPT AROUND KDAG WHERE
THEY WILL BE MORE 20-25K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MORGAN
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
339 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHWEST TODAY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA.
ANY STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING. DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AND CUT BACK ON THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MONDAY ONWARD. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL NEXT WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
RADAR QUIETED DOWN LAST EVENING NICELY IN OUR AREA, HOWEVER, OUR
BREAK IN THE ACTION WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A NEW DISTURBANCE THAT CAN
BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR THIS MORNING LIFTING NORTHWEST ACROSS WESTERN
ARIZONA IS ALREADY HELPING TO SPARK SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
LA PAZ COUNTY. IN ADDITION, SOME WEAKER RETURNS ARE EDGING WEST
ACROSS YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES AS WELL. THIS WILL BE THE AREA
TO WATCH THIS MORNING AND ALL OF THE LOCAL ARW AND NMM MODEL RUNS AS
WELL AS THE HRRR AND 00Z OPERATIONAL WRF AND EVEN THE GFS DRIVE
ACTIVITY TOWARD MOHAVE COUNTY BY SUNRISE OR SHORTLY AFTER. THE MAIN
QUESTION IS WHAT STATE IT WILL BE IN AS IT PUSHES ON WEST. THE
THOUGHT, GIVEN THE TIME OF THE MORNING, IS THAT MOST OF IT WILL BE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS.
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF TODAY, THIS DISTURBANCE (WITH A
VORTICITY MAXIMUM NOTED AT 500 MB) WILL BE LIFTING NORTHWEST TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEVADA BY THIS EVENING. THE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA IS
MAINLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH, BUT STARTS TO GO A LITTLE MORE SOUTHWEST
OVER SOCAL. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH IN DRIER AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND THE MODELS DO SHOW A DROP IN PWATS OVER WESTERN PARTS OF INYO
AND SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES. THE LATER WAS VERY QUIET YESTERDAY AND
I SUSPECT TODAY OUTSIDE OF EASTERN PARTS WHERE CONVECTION COULD GET
DRIVEN INTO OUT OF ARIZONA WILL STAY DRY ONCE AGAIN. PWAT VALUES PER
IPW SENSORS CURRENTLY ARE BETWEEN 0.70 AND 1.45 INCH (LOWEST NORTH,
HIGHEST SOUTH) ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS EASTERN AREAS
MAY DROP A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT MUCH FROM WHAT WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. THUS ONCE AGAIN, THERE WILL BE THE UNLOAD
POTENTIAL IN ANY STRONGER OR SLOWER MOVING THUNDERSTORMS AND THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD. STORMS TODAY MAY BE DRIVEN MORE BY THE
LIFT FROM THE DISTURBANCE ALOFT BUT ALSO GET A BOOST FROM OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE, DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BETWEEN CLOUDIER
AND NOT AS CLOUDY AREAS AND TERRAIN. MOST MODELS SHOW QPF ACROSS
CENTRAL NYE COUNTY, BUT HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THIS AREA BUT IT
STARTS LATER AS IT SHOULD REMAIN QUIET THERE UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING.
ONE CONCERN AGAIN TODAY WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE CLOUD COVER
AS THERE IS A LOT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER AROUND AND MORE
MAY EJECT ON IN. IF WE SEE ACTIVITY SPREAD INTO AREAS EARLY ENOUGH,
SUCH AS MOHAVE COUNTY AND EVEN CLARK COUNTY, THEN THESE AREAS MAY
GET WORKED OVER EARLY ENOUGH TO ALSO SEE CONVECTION CUT-OFF EARLIER
THIS EVENING.
COMPLICATING MATTERS TODAY, ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING, IS THE STEERING
FLOW SHOWN ACROSS LINCOLN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CLARK AND MOHAVE
COUNTIES IS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST ON THE 00Z OPERATIONAL RUNS
OF THE GFS, WRF AND ECMWF. THIS IS A NOT TOO COMMON SET-UP IN THIS
AREA BUT ONE IN THE PAST THAT HAS RESULTED IN SOME RATHER WHAMMY
STORMS MOVING INTO LAS VEGAS (THE JULY 18, 1994 HILTON SIGN
THUNDERSTORM THE MOST NOTABLE OF ALL BUT ALSO MORE RECENTLY JULY 19,
2013). THERE WAS ALSO AN EVENT ON JULY 11-12, 2008 THAT DID NOT
BRING MUCH WIND BUT SOME VERY INTENSE RAIN IN SPOTS. SEVERAL LOCAL
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL RUNS OF THE ARW AND NMM SHOW STRONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES DROPPING SOUTH TOWARD CLARK COUNTY OUT OF LINCOLN COUNTY
THIS EVENING. THERE ARE ALSO SOME HINTS OF THIS WITH THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL WRF. CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHAT WILL UNFOLD IS LOW, BUT
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO BE DRIVEN INTO A HIGH DCAPE
ENVIRONMENT (500-1000 J/KG OVER LAS VEGAS, FAVORABLE FOR STRONG
WINDS) FROM THE TERRAIN TO THE NORTH COULD POTENTIALLY TRIGGER
SOMETHING. WE COULD ALSO SEE THINGS NOT PAN OUT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THIS
RARE SET-UP WHICH HAS BEEN A HIGH IMPACT ONE IN THE PAST, THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 06Z SUNDAY FOR ALL AREAS WHERE IT IS
OUT. SOME MODELS ALSO LINGER CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF ESMERALDA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NYE COUNTIES LATE AS WELL.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND
THUS WE SIDED WITH GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. LOOK FOR HIGH TEMPS ABOUT 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA
TOMORROW. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWEST
OVER MORE OF THE AREA AND THIS WILL FURTHER CUT-BACK ON THE COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA TO WATCH WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA AS THERE IS A 50 KT+ JET STREAK APPROACHING SOCAL
WHICH MAY AID IN STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE
SOUTHWEST, WHICH WILL DRIVE ANY STORMS THAT GO NEAR THE CREST INTO
THE EASTERN SLOPES AND OWENS VALLEY. ALSO WORTH WATCHING WILL BE THE
ADVANCING MOIST-DRY INTERFACE, WHICH MAY HELP TOUCH OFF STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE EXTRA SUNSHINE AND
LOWER MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS START TO DROP BELOW AN INCH IN MOST OF
THE AREA).
WITH THE JET STREAK ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY, A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY GET GOING AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA, OWENS VALLEY AND ESMERALDA COUNTY FROM LINGERING MOISTURE.
OTHERWISE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND WE
SIDED WITH THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.
.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA
TUESDAY...YIELDING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY AFTERNOONS
AREA-WIDE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REIGN
ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND GREAT BASIN THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING THE SIERRA AND WHITE MOUNTAINS
WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ENERGY ALOFT AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING UPPER
LOW TO GENERATE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM TUESDAY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THIS EVENING IN MOISTURE MAKING A RETURN TO
THE EASTERN ZONES THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS AND ECMWF ARE MORE IN LINE TONIGHT IN DEVELOPING AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA. THEIR ASSOCIATED
ENSEMBLE RUNS GENERALLY HAVE THE SAME IDEA...WITH THE NORMAL
EXPECTED AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY THIS FAR OUT. WITH THIS FEATURE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY MOVE INLAND...IT WILL AID IN FUNNELING MOISTURE
NORTHWARD OVER MOHAVE COUNTY...AND PERHAPS EASTERN PORTIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CLARK COUNTIES BEFORE MOVING ACROSS AND OUT OF THE AREA.
DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS MAINLY MOHAVE COUNTY THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY TO ALLOW FOR A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RESULT. ASIDE FROM INCREASED STORM CHANCES...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON WINDS ACROSS THE MOJAVE DESERT AND SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN NEXT WEEKEND AS IT TRAVERSES THE AREA.
DESPITE EXCELLENT MODEL AGREEMENT TONIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL BE
MONITORED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS FOR CONSISTENCY...AS CHANGES IN
THE DEVELOPMENT AND POSITIONING OF KEY FEATURES WILL AFFECT THE
RESULTANT WEATHER LATER NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...THE MAIN CHALLENGE THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
BE THE TIMING OF ANY SHRA/TSRA AS WELL AS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT THEY MAY TRIGGER. THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL INCREASE
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z TODAY AS ACTIVITY MAY MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD LAS
VEGAS FROM ARIZONA. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP IN AND
AROUND THE VALLEY FROM LATER THIS MORNING INTO THIS EVENING. SOME
MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW TO WORK
IN LATER THIS EVENING FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. AWAY FROM
SHRA/TSRA OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WINDS SHOULD TREND TOWARD DIURNAL
DIRECTIONS AT 5-10 KTS. MAINLY BKN CIGS AOA 10K-15K FEET WITH BASES
LOWERING BELOW 8K FEET IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA IS LOW
THROUGH TONIGHT SO WILL TRY TO BASE TAF TIMING ON RADAR AND HI-
RESOLUTION MODEL TRENDS IN EARLIER PERIODS AND ADJUST AS NEED BE.
OVERALL THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM
KIYK-KEED-KHII. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS AND VSBY AND CIGS REDUCED TO
MVFR OR LOWER ARE POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR ANY SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
TONIGHT. ACTIVITY MAY LINGER LONGER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
NEVADA, POTENTIALLY GOING UNTIL CLOSER TO 06Z SUNDAY. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT WINDS TO TREND TOWARD TYPICAL DIURNAL DIRECTIONS AT 6-12 KTS
WITH MAINLY BKN CLOUDS AOA 10K-15K FEET EXCEPT AROUND KDAG WHERE
THEY WILL BE MORE 20-25K FEET IN THE SCT-BKN RANGE.
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES THROUGH SUNDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...STACHELSKI
LONG TERM...PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ELKO NV
249 AM PDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL INLFUENCE THE LOCAL REGION.
CENTRAL NEVADA CAN ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...WHILE NORTHERN
NEVADA WILL MORE THAN LIKELY BE A SUNDAY EVENT. UNSETTLED WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES
RIDGING TO THE EAST...WITH MOISTURE FLUX INBOUND FROM OUR NEIGHBOR
TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE H5
FLOW...WHICH SHOULD BE THE MAIN EVENT WITH THIS MONSOON EPISODE. THE
NAM AND THE HRRR BOTH DEPICT MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR IMPACTING THE
LKN CWA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH THE NAM BEING A BIT MORE
BULLISH WITH THE QPF. THE HRRR KICKS INTO GEAR AROUND 18Z SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 50...WITH MERITED BUMPING UP POPS THIS PACKAGE...WHILE THE
GFS40 IS SLOW TO BRING THE QPF INTO THE LKN CWA TODAY...WHILE THE
NAM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE. SUNDAY...EXPECT A ANOTHER ROUND OF
QPF...ALBEIT FURTHER NORTH. THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SOME MARKET
DIFFERENCES IN THE QPF FIELDS PAST 24 HRS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND
IS A SHIFT TO THE NORTH.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON THE BIG PIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH NIGGLING
DIFFERENCES IN THE SMALLER FEATURES PRETTY THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM.
LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN AN ACCURATE FORECAST...BUT PRECISION IS OKAY
STILL.
UPPER RIDGE MOVES ON EAST AND OPENS THE DOOR FOR MONSOON MOISTURE TO
PERSIST LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THIS SLUG OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
NORTH IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY DRIER FLOW MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTENDANT
TO THE PACIFIC LOW TRYING TO ABUT THE COASTAL AREAS.
PWS AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OF AN ISOLATED NATURE THROUGH THE EARLIER AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE
FORECAST RANGE...DWINDLING LATER IN THE PACKAGE. HAVE NOT
DIFFERENTIATED BETWEEN AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS FAR
OUT FOR SIMPLICITY`S SAKE...SO HAVE STAYED TO "TRW" WORDING.
THIS IS A HYBRID SITUATION WITH SOME DRY AND SOME WETTISH
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST STORMS WILL RAIN...AND SOME WILL HAVE BRIEF
HEAVY RAINS.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE WILL ENABLE
THUNDERSTORMS AT NEAR KTPH AND KELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT BUT GUSTY AND ERRATIC NEAR STORMS AND VIRGA.
TYPICAL SUMMER PATTER.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A WELL DEFINED
DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER NM/CO AND A DEEP FETCH OF MOISTURE
RUNNING UP THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND INTO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. EXPECTING THIS MOISTURE TO GRADUALLY WORK ITS WAY INTO
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEVADA. BUT BASICALLY ITS KNOCKING ON THE
BACK DOOR OF 457...AND ONCE UNSTABLE...IT SHOULD GET PRETTY
INTERESTING. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT WOULD BE IF THE CLOUD
COVERAGE INHIBITS CONVECTIVE INITIATION.
&&
.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
97/98/98/97
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. SLOW-MOVING STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. DRIER AND MORE STABLE
AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK WEST BEGINNING MONDAY...SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWERING THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF STORMS AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FEWER STORMS WILL TRANSLATE INTO A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND NEXT
WEEK...AS WELL.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN FOCUSED SQUARELY WITHIN THE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THUS FAR...WITH TREMENDOUSLY IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AS HIGH AS 3.3 INCHES PER HOUR AS MEASURED BY A PERSONAL
WEATHER STATION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF SANTA FE. GENERALLY 1 TO
3 INCH PER HOUR RATES LIKELY WITH JUST ABOUT ANY WELL-DEVELOPED
STORM. MAY CONSIDER EXPANDING WATCH TO INCLUDE NE/EC AREAS
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SHOULD BE
MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED. BUT RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR CONTINUE
TO SUGGEST SMALL MCS-LIKE FEATURE ORGANIZING BETWEEN CLAYTON AND
CONCHAS DAM ROLLING TOWARD TUCUMCARI-LOGAN LATER THIS EVENING.
THIS WOULD ONE AREA OF CONCERN GIVEN VERY HEAVY RAIN PAST TWO
DAYS. WEAKNESS IN THE 500MB RIDGE NEAR THE NM/CO LINE ALSO A
PLAYER BUT VERY DIFFICULT TO TRACK BEYOND 12 HOURS.
OTHERWISE...WE`RE NOW MOVING INTO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION
TIME OF DAY FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS CENTRAL/WEST. AIR MASS PLENTY
MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2 INCHES NW
TO 1.5 INCHES NEAR THE NM/TX LINE. A POCKET OF RELATIVELY LOWER
PWAT AIR /ONE 1 INCH OR SLIGHTLY LESS/ ANALYZED OVER THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY TO UPPER GILA HAS KEPT COVERAGE A BIT LOWER THERE
BUT SUBTLE GRADIENTS.
GOING INTO SUNDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL ORIENTATION OF
THE MONSOON PLUME BENEATH VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. LEAST
FAVORED REGION WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER...WHILE
NC TO WC AREAS AGAIN FAVORED IN ADDITION TO THE SW THAT COULD SEE
A BUMP IN COVERAGE AS COMPARED TO TODAY.
THEREAFTER...WE HAVE BEGUN TO REFLECT A MARKED DECREASE IN STORM
COVERAGE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS AS
THE ANTICYCLONIC BELT OF WESTERLIES ELONGATES WEST-EAST AND SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY SOUTH PLACING THE AREA UNDER A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW
REGIME. THAT SAID...THE LAST DRYING EPISODE WAS POORLY HANDLED BY
VIRTUALLY ALL THE NWP MODELS AS THEY TEND TO DRY OUR MOIST
RESIDENT AIR MASS TOO QUICKLY. SO WE WILL PROCEED WITH A LITTLE
PRUDENCE...BUT DEFINITELY TRENDING FORECAST TOWARD MUCH FEWER
STORMS NEXT WEEK. IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT WE WILL STRUGGLE TO
DEVELOP A STORM ANYWHERE BY MID- WEEK. THAT IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
A DAY TO DAY WARMING TREND. COULD SEE OUR NEXT BACKDOOR SURGE
THUR/FRI THEN WE START THE MOISTENING CYCLE OVER. KJ
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FOCUS ON
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY AND SUNDAY...WITH FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. STEERING FLOW FROM
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTERING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE WILL STEER SLOW MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST STORMS ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN TO NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WHERE FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.
LOOK FOR A DRIER AIR MASS TO FILTER INTO THE STATE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO SHIFTS
WESTWARD FILTERING IN DRIER AIR FROM THE PACIFIC. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DOWNTREND AS TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK TO
NORMAL/ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. EXPECT HAINES VALUES TO INCREASE TO
THE 5 AND 6 VALUES ALONG WITH DECREASING MIN RH VALUES. STORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TO HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS AND ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATION AREAS. THE MOISTURE PLUME LOOKS TO MAKE ITS RETURN BY THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND WITH AN INCREASE IN WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT
EASTWARD.
EXPECT POOR VENT RATES ACROSS THE NORTH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND
WITH IMPROVEMENTS BY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY THE MIDWEEK BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
WILL REMAIN GOOD. 32
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA WILL FAVOR WESTERN AND
NORTHERN TERMINAL SITES TODAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH RECENTER OVER
THE SE PLAINS. EXPECT PEAK CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BETWEEN 18 AND
23Z. STORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD...IMPACTING KLVS. KTCC COULD SEE STORMS DEVELOP
AFTER 02Z. EXPECT PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL MTN OBSCD
FOR SITES IMPACTED BY TSRA...ESPECIALLY KLVS AND KSAF. THERE COULD
BE A POSSIBILITY LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST
OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 62 87 60 89 / 60 40 40 10
DULCE........................... 51 78 50 81 / 70 60 60 20
CUBA............................ 54 78 53 81 / 60 70 60 20
GALLUP.......................... 56 82 54 85 / 50 40 40 20
EL MORRO........................ 54 78 52 81 / 70 60 40 20
GRANTS.......................... 56 81 54 83 / 50 50 40 20
QUEMADO......................... 55 78 54 83 / 50 40 40 20
GLENWOOD........................ 59 84 59 87 / 30 40 40 20
CHAMA........................... 50 75 49 77 / 70 70 70 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 60 78 59 81 / 70 70 80 30
PECOS........................... 54 78 55 80 / 60 60 60 30
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 51 76 51 79 / 60 70 70 30
RED RIVER....................... 47 67 47 70 / 70 80 70 40
ANGEL FIRE...................... 49 70 48 73 / 70 80 70 40
TAOS............................ 52 79 52 81 / 50 50 50 20
MORA............................ 53 75 52 79 / 70 70 70 30
ESPANOLA........................ 57 82 57 86 / 50 50 60 20
SANTA FE........................ 58 79 58 82 / 50 50 50 30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 59 81 59 85 / 40 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 63 84 63 87 / 40 40 40 20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 66 85 67 88 / 30 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 63 88 63 91 / 30 30 30 10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 63 88 64 91 / 30 30 30 10
LOS LUNAS....................... 64 87 63 91 / 40 30 20 10
RIO RANCHO...................... 64 87 64 90 / 40 40 30 10
SOCORRO......................... 64 90 63 92 / 30 30 30 20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 59 81 59 84 / 40 40 50 20
TIJERAS......................... 60 82 59 85 / 40 40 50 20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 56 84 56 86 / 40 40 40 20
CLINES CORNERS.................. 58 80 58 83 / 40 30 50 20
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 59 82 59 86 / 30 30 30 20
CARRIZOZO....................... 61 87 61 88 / 30 30 20 10
RUIDOSO......................... 57 79 57 80 / 40 40 30 30
CAPULIN......................... 57 81 57 83 / 50 40 50 20
RATON........................... 58 83 57 85 / 50 40 40 20
SPRINGER........................ 59 84 59 87 / 50 30 50 20
LAS VEGAS....................... 56 81 55 83 / 60 40 40 20
CLAYTON......................... 63 88 63 89 / 40 30 30 20
ROY............................. 61 85 60 86 / 50 30 40 20
CONCHAS......................... 67 91 67 94 / 50 20 30 20
SANTA ROSA...................... 64 90 65 93 / 50 20 40 20
TUCUMCARI....................... 67 93 66 95 / 40 20 30 20
CLOVIS.......................... 66 91 67 93 / 40 20 30 20
PORTALES........................ 67 92 68 94 / 40 20 30 20
FORT SUMNER..................... 67 92 67 95 / 30 20 20 20
ROSWELL......................... 69 96 69 97 / 20 20 20 20
PICACHO......................... 63 90 63 91 / 40 30 20 20
ELK............................. 62 83 61 84 / 40 50 30 30
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501>507-510>517.
&&
$$
41
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
928 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL DISSIPATE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN
THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...BULK OF RAINFALL IS OFFSHORE AND LATEST
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RAP...SHOW RAIN
SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE TODAY. HAVE TWEAKED POPS DOWN
OVER LAND FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM SAT...LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC PATTERN. WILL
CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IMMEDIATE SOUTH COAST AND SOUTHERN OUTER
BANKS IN THE EVENING...THEN LIMITED POPS TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 70
COASTAL PLAIN TO MID/UPPER 70S OUTER BANKS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUNDAY WITH
BROAD TROUGHING ALOFT CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE
REGION BY LATE WEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSHOWERS.
SUNDAY...THE MODELS CONTINUE THE MAINLY DRY TREND FOR SUNDAY AND
HAVE MAINTAINED GENERALLY 20 POPS FOR THE AREA WITH JUST AN ISO
THUNDERSHOWER AS SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PROPAGATES INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS COULD BE A BIT WARMER WITH LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO
80S COAST. ANY SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING
INLAND THOUGH MAINTAINED SMALL POPS COASTAL AREAS WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED AS HEIGHTS AND
850 MB TEMPS RISE SOMEWHAT. SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTY
WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGHS WILL BE AS HIGH AS THE MID
90S INLAND...THOUGH AT THIS TIME NOT EXPECTING HEAT ADV CRITERIA
TO BE MET WITH GENERALLY LOW 100S EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AS TD`S
WILL BE IN THE 60S WHERE HOTTEST TEMPS OCCUR. MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERY PATTERN WITH RESPECT TO PRECIP CHANCES...ISO TO SCT
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AWAY FROM THE
COAST. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL POOL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEREFORE KEPT 20-30 POPS COASTAL AREAS FOR THE THREAT OF ELEVATED
THUNDER EACH NIGHT. 01-00Z ECM/CMC BRING SFC FRONT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY...WHICH WOULD BE A FOCUS FOR A
BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN
ONLY 20 POPS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY...AS DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECM ALONG WITH THEIR ENSEMBLE
MEAN BRINGS SHORTWAVE ENERGY WITH DECREASING HEIGHTS INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST CONUS. ECMWF IS A DAY FASTER THAN THE
GFS...SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT 30-40 POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.
ECMWF DYNAMICS WOULD SUPPORT AN ORGANIZED THREAT FOR STORMS WITH
25-30 KT OF DEEP SHEAR IN PLACE...THOUGH AT THIS LONG RANGE AND
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT A THREAT FOR SEVERE IN HWO
QUITE YET. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT MORE TOLERABLE WITH THE INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIP...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 7 AM SAT...PATCHY IFR/MVFR VSBYS WILL BURN OFF IN NEXT HOUR
OR SO AS SUN COMES UP. ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION
POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS EWN AND OAJ...DRY FORECAST FOR PGV AND ISO.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...CALM TO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OTHERWISE. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN THE PREDAWN
HOURS OF SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
A WEAK FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WITH ONLY ISO STORMS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT WITH MOIST BL
AND LIGHT WINDS...ESP FOR AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. SW WINDS
MAY BECOME GUSTY TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS AS THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENS
ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT.
&&
.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM SATURDAY...WINDS ARE RATHER CONFUSED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING WITH WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY BISECTING THE AREA.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME S/SW BY LATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2
TO 4 FEET TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SLIP OFFSHORE AGAIN
BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE W/NW.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 4 AM SAT...EXPECT PRED S/SW FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD. GRADIENT TIGHTENS THROUGH THE DAY SUN WITH INCREASING SSW
WINDS 10-20KT LATE SUN. A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS SSW WINDS
INCREASE TO 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 6
FEET. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THURSDAY WITH WINDS
AND SEAS DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.
&&
.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...HSA/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
554 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.
HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN ENOUGH CIN TO PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CU FIELD THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON.
CAPE REMAINS HIGH BUT SHEAR IS DECREASING. WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDER THROUGH 7 PM AS A FEW CU REMAIN OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF DICKEY/LAMOURE COUNTIES.
TO THE NORTHWEST...A LINE OF CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER BUT DEEP MOISTURE IS LACKING...ESPECIALLY
RIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH DRIED DEWPOINTS OVER
THE FAR NORTHWEST AND INTO NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. COULD STILL BE
SOME SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HERE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS IS COVERED
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH A MENTION OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR
NORTH CENTRAL...AND INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AREA THIS EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1920 UTC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN JAMESTOWN...STEELE AND EDGELEY.
THE 13-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE ALL DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HAVE THUS ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GRAND FORKS CWA BY 00 UTC.
LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY...UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN A CLOSED MID LEVEL CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
EXPECT A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ON SUNDAY AT ALL TAF SITES BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVES WILL AFFECT THE REGION THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL BRING A SEVERE THREAT TO A PORTION OF SE ND
AND WC MN. CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE
EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST. DEWPOINT VALUES ALONG THESE FEATURES
HAVE POOLED INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S...LEADING TO MLCAPE 3000-3500
J/KG. AS THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND PROPAGATES TOWARD THE
FA...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
FA. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR 35-40 KNTS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO SEVERE STORMS...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN ISOLATED GIVEN CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F (SOME CAPPING
ISSUES). THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY EARLY
EVENING. DID ADD T+ (SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE) ACROSS FAR SE ND
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THUNDER DEVELOPMENT (LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AND THE HRRR HAS CONSISTENTLY
INDICATED DEVELOPMENT FROM RUN TO RUN).
NEXT UP WILL BE THE NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AS A STRONGER UPPER WAVE BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ENCOUNTER WEAK INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
500-1000 J/KG) BUT VERY STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR (60+
KNOTS)...ALONG WITH MID-LEVEL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KNTS. THE 18Z
HRRR IS INDICATING A SMALL BOW ECHO WITH SFC WIND GUSTS 50-55
KNOTS 02Z-05Z. OF COURSE THAT IS JUST ONE POSSIBLE SOLUTION...BUT
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE POTENTIAL OF WHAT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FORCING MAY ALSO
INTERACT WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY FROM THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THIS PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ONTARIO
AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND THE DAKOTAS. THE WEATHER WILL BE DRY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THE START OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL MOVE EAST IN THE WEAK UPPER FLOW...UNDERCUTTING A
WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BY MID WEEK. THE MODELS HAVE HAD A HARD TIME
WITH THIS SYSTEM. PREVIOUS RUNS HAD MORE INSTABILITY AND MUCH MORE
OF A PRECIPITATION SIGNAL AREA-WIDE. THE LATEST GFS HAS BEST
LIFT/INSTABILITY IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SO...CONFIDENCE IS DECREASING IN WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM. ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY THE SOUTH ON THURSDAY...BUT
AGAIN...THIS ONE HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD. HOWEVER...FRIDAYS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE THE WAVE THAT HAS THE MOST AGREEMENT REGARDING TRACK
AND COULD BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY ON THESE WAVES...TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL. PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST INTO SATURDAY AS WELL AND
WILL DEPEND ON SPEED OF UPPER LOW. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COOL
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.
FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.
LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
243 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SEVERE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1920 UTC CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN JAMESTOWN...STEELE AND EDGELEY.
THE 13-18 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS HAVE ALL DEPICTED CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40
KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS...AND HAVE THUS ADDED SEVERE WORDING TO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE THREAT TO QUICKLY EXIT INTO
THE GRAND FORKS CWA BY 00 UTC.
LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT WILL PROPAGATE FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA...YIELDING A COOLER BUT STILL
SEASONABLE SUNDAY FOR EARLY AUGUST.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
SUNDAY WILL PUSH A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES RELATIVELY COOL IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN MATERIALIZES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR
FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE ZONAL ALLOWING SEVERAL EMBEDDED WAVES TO
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND WEST INITIALLY...UNTIL LATER IN THE
WEEK WHEN A CLOSED MID LEVEL CROSSES THE ALBERTA ROCKIES AND MOVES
INTO NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DO NOT RECOVER MUCH FROM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...AND LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE FOR EARLY
AUGUST WED-FRI (70S TO LOW 80S).
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR AND SOUTH OF
KJMS THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY SEVERE.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AYD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON IS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PRIMARILY THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. THE 12-16 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO DEPICT
CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR THIS AREA BY 21 UTC IN AN ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY ML CAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
25-30 KTS. WITH A SHORTWAVE EVIDENT JUST UPSTREAM ON WATER
VAPOR...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ALONG WITH THE THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD A SUPERCELL DEVELOP.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A HOT DAY EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS
SUPPORTED BY THE 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHERE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AREA OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES IN WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES...ENDING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A VERY WARM DAY TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE STATE...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WARM WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. WARM AND DRY AIR WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED...LIKELY ALONG A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN A NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHIFTING EAST TO THE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUING
EAST OUT OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN ADIABATIC LINK FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND H700 THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND RAISED WINDS A BIT AS WELL
FROM GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW OF THE
UPPER JET - WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIR TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S
AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH
SO THAT TEMPS DO NOT DROP INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA
FROM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTERLY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF KJMS THIS
AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO H700 THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
MIXING WINDS ALOFT TO LINK WITH THE SURFACE. EXPECTING 15 TO 20
MPH WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES WITH MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED.
EXPECT THAT GRASSLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE CURING QUICKLY.
THE LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM LAND MANAGERS INDICATED THAT SLOPE AND
BOWMAN COUNTIES WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO REACH CRITICAL FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AT SOME POINT. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WOULD WARRANT A RED FLAG MENTION FOR WILLISTON TO HETTINGER AND
WESTWARD...BUT UNDERSTAND THAT GRASSLANDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED
CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SPC DID EXTEND THE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK INTO SOUTHEAST NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH SEEMS APPROPRIATE. AT 17Z...DEWPOINT VALUES AHEAD
OF A WEAK SFC LOW/CONVERGENCE AREA ARE POOLING INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S...WHICH HAD LED TO MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/KG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL SLOWLY PROPAGATE EASTWARD. THE CAP IS
STILL STRONG...BUT AS TEMPERATURES APPROACH 90F THIS CAP WILL
ERODE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH THIS
EVENING CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 90F. ANY ISOLD STORM
THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE GIVEN 0-6KM
SHEAR 35-40 KNTS ALONG WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY.
AN AREA OF STORMS WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERN FA WITH THE PASSAGE OF
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
BE VERY STRONG (60+ KNOTS)...INSTABILITY SHOULD BE VERY WEAK. A
STRONGER WIND GUST MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN 500MB WINDS AOA 50
KNOTS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET ESSENTIALLY REMAINS
OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES HOWEVER JET DOES OSCILLATE NORTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THEN BACK OVER THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS SHORT WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MAN WILL ROTATE
ACROSS ONTARIO SAT NIGHT ELSEWHERE WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED SHORT
WAVES OVER CENTRAL SASK AND ANOTHER OVER ALTA/BC BORDER. BC SHORT
WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE STATES SUN AND AMPLIFY
THE UPPER TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA. RIDGE BUILDING COMMENCES IN THE
WESTERN US SUN AND SHIFTS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 84 HOURS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES OVER AN INCH IN THE SOUTH WITH SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SHOWALTERS BECOME NEGATIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. SHOWALTERS
ALSO BECOME NEGATIVE IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT WITH
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. PRECIPITABLE WATER ALSO INCREASES OVER AN
INCH FROM THE NORTH WITH TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE INTO MN AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALTA WILL
MOVE INTO MN BY 12Z SUN. THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR THE REST OF
THE PERIOD.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LONG RANGE GFS/ECMWF HAVE REMAINED IN
FAIR AGREEMENT IN SHOWING UPPER TROUGH OVER ONTARIO MOVING EAST AND
A WESTERLY FLOW AT 500 MB SETTING UP OVER THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
MID TO LATE WEEK. WITH THIS WILL COME A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. 00Z ECMWF HAS A TAD WETTER PATTERN VS A BIT
DRIER 00Z GFS. BLENDED MODEL SOLN HAVE POPS IN THE AREA WED-FRI AND
LEFT THEM FOR NOW. THE MAIN UPPER HEAT RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SRN PLAINS AND AREA WILL BE A TAD BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME THRU THE
PD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
TAFS FOR THE 18Z UPDATE REFLECT MODEST THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES
ACROSS NRN RED RIVER VALLEY AND NRN MN LATE TONIGHT.
FIRST...THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KFAR THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. PROBABILITIES HAVE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY FOR KFAR TO SEE AN AFTERNOON TS CLOSE TO THE
TERMINAL. LAST FEW HRRR MODEL RUNS HAVE HAD TS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR.
HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT 23Z FOR NOW.
LATE TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA AND MODELS
INDICATE THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PUSHING
SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECTING WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOONS ACTIVITY NEAR KFAR. HAVE LEFT KDVL
AND KFAR OUT OF THE VCTS MENTION AS THEY WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE ACTIVITY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
931 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
OTHER THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 14 UTC...THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH A HOT DAY EXPECTED IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. DID MAINTAIN AN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY AS
SUPPORTED BY THE 06 AND INCOMING 12 UTC GLOBAL GUIDANCE AND 12-13
UTC HRRR ITERATIONS WHERE LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THIS AFTERNOON.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AREA OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES IN WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES...ENDING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A VERY WARM DAY TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE STATE...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WARM WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. WARM AND DRY AIR WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED...LIKELY ALONG A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN A NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHIFTING EAST TO THE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUING
EAST OUT OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN ADIABATIC LINK FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND H700 THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND RAISED WINDS A BIT AS WELL
FROM GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW OF THE
UPPER JET - WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIR TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S
AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH
SO THAT TEMPS DO NOT DROP INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA
FROM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTERLY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 926 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KJMS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO H700 THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
MIXING WINDS ALOFT TO LINK WITH THE SURFACE. EXPECTING 15 TO 20
MPH WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES WITH MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED.
EXPECT THAT GRASSLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE CURING QUICKLY.
THE LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM LAND MANAGERS INDICATED THAT SLOPE AND
BOWMAN COUNTIES WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO REACH CRITICAL FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AT SOME POINT. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WOULD WARRANT A RED FLAG MENTION FOR WILLISTON TO HETTINGER AND
WESTWARD...BUT UNDERSTAND THAT GRASSLANDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED
CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
625 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AREA OF CLOUDS WITH A FEW SPRINKLES IN WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION OVER
CENTRAL ND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT
TO THE EAST. FOR EARLY MORNING UPDATE WILL ADJUST CLOUD COVER AND
ADD MENTION OF SPRINKLES...ENDING BY MID MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A VERY WARM DAY TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE STATE...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WARM WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. WARM AND DRY AIR WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED...LIKELY ALONG A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN A NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHIFTING EAST TO THE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUING
EAST OUT OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN ADIABATIC LINK FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND H700 THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND RAISED WINDS A BIT AS WELL
FROM GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW OF THE
UPPER JET - WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIR TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S
AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH
SO THAT TEMPS DO NOT DROP INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA
FROM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTERLY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 616 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND THROUGH KMOT
AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING...REACHING KJMS AROUND 09Z.
SOUTHWEST WINDS COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK THIS
AFTERNOON BETWEEN 17Z AND 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO H700 THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
MIXING WINDS ALOFT TO LINK WITH THE SURFACE. EXPECTING 15 TO 20
MPH WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES WITH MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED.
EXPECT THAT GRASSLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE CURING QUICKLY.
THE LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM LAND MANAGERS INDICATED THAT SLOPE AND
BOWMAN COUNTIES WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO REACH CRITICAL FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AT SOME POINT. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WOULD WARRANT A RED FLAG MENTION FOR WILLISTON TO HETTINGER AND
WESTWARD...BUT UNDERSTAND THAT GRASSLANDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED
CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
333 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A VERY WARM DAY TODAY HIGHLIGHTS THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.
NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL JET FLOW CONTINUED OVER THE STATE...WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY AND A WARM WESTERN RIDGE OVER THE
WEST COAST AND ROCKIES. WARM AND DRY AIR WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE UPPER
LEVEL JET WITH COOLER AIR TO THE NORTHEAST.
EARLY THIS MORNING ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED...LIKELY ALONG A
BOUNDARY BETWEEN A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET ALONG WESTERN NEBRASKA
INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. ENOUGH LIFT WAS OCCURRING IN A NORTHWEST-
TO-SOUTHEAST FASHION ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE LATEST
ITERATION OF THE HRRR INDICATES THE AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
SHIFTING EAST TO THE JAMES VALLEY BEFORE SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUING
EAST OUT OF THE JAMES VALLEY.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES THIS
MORNING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH TODAY AND ENTER NORTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY THIS EVENING...SWEEPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. LOOK FOR A VERY WARM DAY TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WESTERLY
MIXING WINDS ALOFT SHOULD INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT
DUE TO THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
AN ADIABATIC LINK FROM THE SURFACE UP TO AROUND H700 THIS AFTERNOON.
WENT ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AND RAISED WINDS A BIT AS WELL
FROM GUIDANCE. LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S OVER
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THE
BEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING RESIDES TO OUR NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW OF THE
UPPER JET - WHICH SHOULD HAVE LIFTED NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY
ALLOWING THE VERY WARM AND DRY AIR TO ADVANCE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. HAVE KEPT THE SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TURTLE MOUNTAIN AREA. COOLER AIR MOVES INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. KEPT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S
AS THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL KEEP THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXED ENOUGH
SO THAT TEMPS DO NOT DROP INTO THE 40S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLIDING OVER THE ROCKIES AND SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVER
THE REGION. DRY WEATHER CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH RIDGE AXIS
PUSHING TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED TOWARDS MID-WEEK WITH RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND A VARIETY OF SHORT WAVES EJECTING OVER THE AREA
FROM A BROAD UPPER LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA. UNSETTLED PATTERN
CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW STARTS TO MAKE ITS WAY
EASTERLY. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. ON
SATURDAY WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH KISN AROUND 00Z...AND
THROUGH KMOT AND KDIK AROUND 04Z SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY AT TIMES AT KISN AND KDIK IN THE AFTERNOON BETWEEN
17Z AND 00Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AN ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE UP TO H700 THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
MIXING WINDS ALOFT TO LINK WITH THE SURFACE. EXPECTING 15 TO 20
MPH WINDS FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AS TEMPERATURES
REACH INTO THE 90S. DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S OVER SOUTHWESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE MIXES WITH MID LEVELS.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S SHOULD
RESULT IN MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT
RANGE OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM WILLISTON TO WATFORD CITY TO DICKINSON AND HETTINGER.
IN ADDITION...WINDS ALOFT SHOULD ALSO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE FOR
A TIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH
EXPECTED.
EXPECT THAT GRASSLANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST ARE CURING QUICKLY.
THE LATEST ASSESSMENT FROM LAND MANAGERS INDICATED THAT SLOPE AND
BOWMAN COUNTIES WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST TO REACH CRITICAL FUEL
MOISTURE LEVELS AT SOME POINT. WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY
WOULD WARRANT A RED FLAG MENTION FOR WILLISTON TO HETTINGER AND
WESTWARD...BUT UNDERSTAND THAT GRASSLANDS HAVE NOT YET REACHED
CRITICAL FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS.
COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY...AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JV
FIRE WEATHER...JV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
930 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... BAND OF CONVECTION WITH
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE.
SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD
LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE PROGS FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY START TO DIVERGE BY THE
END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH ONGOING FORECAST
PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA AROUND 05Z AND
MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH BUT THE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT
ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH
ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S
ONLY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF STORMS FROM EASTERN WI ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN CONTINUES
TO MOVE ESE TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. TIMING OF THIS PRECIP PUTS IT OVER
KTOL AROUND 04Z AND TO KCLE BETWEEN 06 AND 07Z. THESE TWO SITES ARE
THE ONLY ONES THAT HAVE A LEGITIMATE SHOT FOR THUNDER AS THE LINE
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
TO KMFD AND KCAK BEFORE BREAKING UP. ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP EXIST AT KYNG AND KERI OVERNIGHT. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME
REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE GIVEN KCAK
AND KYNG A SMALL MENTION. EXPECT THE OTHER TAF SITES TO BE DRY.
GUSTY S TO SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. PEAK GUSTS SHOULD DROP
TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AFTER SUNSET. EXPECT THE FLOW TO BECOME
WESTERLY BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT. SOME PATCHES OF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT. DO NOT THINK THIS CONDITION WILL
PERSIST VERY LONG.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ144>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/ADAMS
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KUBINA
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON WV
727 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY
AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE
FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN EVENING UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AFTER 15Z MONDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
BY 16Z MONDAY THE RAP MODEL HAS 20 KNOT FLOW AT 925 MB.
STILL LIKE THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER IN SOUTHEAST OHIO INTO THE
MID OHIO VALLEY DURING THE MORNING...SO NO CHANGES THERE.
FOR THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION...WAS A BIT FASTER INCREASING POPS
EAST IN THE 22Z MONDAY TO 02Z TUESDAY TIME FRAME FROM THE MID OHIO
VALLEY INTO NORTH CENTRAL WV. CELLS WILL BE MOVING AT AROUND 35
KNOTS. HOW QUCIKLY CONVECTION SINKS SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA..SAY HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...REMAINS DIFFICULT TO FIGURE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TODAY...WITH MODELS
HOLDING ON THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES OF
WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT TO THE WEST. WITH THE
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ON THE INCREASE...FELT COMFORTABLE WITH HIGH
CHANCE AND LOW END LIKELY POPS BY THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXTENDED CONTINUES TO PLAY ON THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WARRANTING HIGH END
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ON THE FRONT END OF THE LONG TERM. THIS LOW
DEPARTS TO THE EAST BY 18Z FRIDAY AND WILL TAKE THE BULK OF THE RAIN
CHANCES WITH IT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE LOW AND
COLD FRONT DRYING IT OUT FOR THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW INCREASING ONLY POSSIBLE THICK FOG
FIGURED WOULD BE IN EXTREME SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SUCH AS
PINEVILLE AIRPORT. HAVE SOME MVFR POSSIBLE AROUND ELKINS DURING
THE 08Z TO 11Z TIME FRAME.
OTHERWISE HAVE 5 TO 10 THSD FT CLOUDS INCREASING IN THE OHIO
VALLEY 08Z TO 12Z WITH POSSIBLE SHOWER 11Z TO 15Z.
BASING FORECAST ON FRONT NOT REACHING TOWARD MID OHIO VALLEY AND
PKB VCNTY UNTIL 00Z TUESDAY. BEST CHANCE FOR GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
SEEM TO BE IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB CORRIDOR AFTER 22Z.
PREFRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY EAST AROUND 35 TO 40
KNOTS...BUT TIMING HOW QUICKLY CONVECTION SINKS INTO HTS-CRW ON
SOUTH IS DIFFICULT. TRIED TO DELAY MAIN CHANCES JUST AFTER THIS
TAF PERIODS DURING TUESDAY EVENING FOR HTS-CRW-BKW.
HAVE CEILINGS NEAR 3 THSD FT AND VSBY BRIEFLY AOB 3 MILES IN LATE
DAY AND EVENING CONVECTION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND TUESDAY EVENING COULD VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
EDT 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...BRIEF IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONT 00Z TO
06Z TUESDAY...IFR POSSIBLE IN LOW CEILINGS AND VSBY 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY. IFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...KTB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1216 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.
BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.
WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
INFLUENCE FROM CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA CONTINUES TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE STILL
REMAINS A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION LATER TODAY...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS ATTM. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS LATE THIS
EVENING POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...WILL WATCH A FRONT MOVE THROUGH MID-MORNING
SUNDAY...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...DUX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
INITIAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN MODEL GUIDANCE
ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT...WITH LLJ CONTINUING TO DEVELOP SCATTERED
STORMS ALONG AN ELEVATED BOUNDARY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL SD AND INTO
NEBRASKA. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AS THE
LEAD WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST...THE LLJ WILL GRADUALLY BACK WESTWARD
BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHOULD TAPER OFF THIS CONVECTION. 12Z
NAM/GFS PERFORMING VERY POORLY WITH THIS CONVECTION.
SECONDARY SHORTWAVE NOW ENTERING WESTERN ND ARRIVING SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED...BUT ALREADY DEVELOPING A SFC LOW WEST
OF BISMARCK. A SFC WARM FRONT STRETCHES SOUTHEAST OF THIS
LOW...OVER NORTHEASTER SD AND INTO SW MN.
BIGGEST QUESTIONS FOR THE AFTERNOON HINGE ON THIS LINGERING CLOUD
COVER...AND GRADUAL MIXDOWN OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT. NAM
AGAIN VERY UNRELIABLE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AT 12Z...BUT
FEEL HRRR...EXP-HRRR AND RAP FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MIXDOWN.
NEVERTHELESS...FOCUS FOR CONVECTION MAY SHIFT SLIGHTLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT OVER MN AND NE SD...AND
ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AXIS ACROSS OUR SWRN COUNTIES. THE
TIMING OF THIS SECONDARY WAVE IS ALSO NOT AS FAVORABLE.
FOR NOW...HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY...AND LOWERED TEMPERATURES A
HAIR IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CLUSTERS OF STRONG STORMS LATER TODAY...BUT
AGAIN MESOSCALE DETAILS STILL NOT RESOLVED MAY DRIVE THIS
OPPORTUNITY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
A SHORT WAVE PRESENTLY LOCATED OVER EASTERN MONTANA EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD TODAY ON A NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW...AND WILL PLAY A PART IN OUR WEATHER FOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NE ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS AS MIDLEVEL THETA E ADVECTION SPREADS
INTO THAT AREA OUT AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE. MAY SEE THESE
STORMS CONTINUE OVER THAT AREA THROUGH THE MID MORNING BEFORE THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS. AFTER THAT WILL MOST LIKELY SEE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS A CAP STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
AREA. BY AFTERNOON THE SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO EXERT INFLUENCE ON THE
REGION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WEAKENING THE CAP. STILL
SEEING SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH REGARD TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE
AND RESULTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EITHER WAY THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AS
TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S TO SUPPORT
VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS IN STORMS WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL THEN BECOME MORE FOCUSED IN NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND
PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS
A LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS OVER THAT AREA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
LOOK TO BE RUNNING IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS...SO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINKING THAT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO WITH INITIAL CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY...WITH LOW LCL
HEIGHTS AND FAIRLY STRONG 0 TO 1 KM SHEAR.
WILL SEE ANY STORMS EVOLVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
NIGHT TIME HOURS AS THE SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN
IOWA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE
AS LIGHT TONIGHT...AND IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
MID TO UPPER 60S.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
ON SUNDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...EXITING
NORTHWEST IOWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN SW MN DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED ATMOSPHERE.
DESPITE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN AT LOW LEVEL...
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STILL WARM INTO THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S DUE TO MIXING. THIS WILL ALSO MIX DOWN DRIER AIR WITH
AFTERNOON DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MUCH OF SE SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SW MN DURING THE AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE CAN BE
EXPECTED IN NW IOWA. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP OFF QUICKLY ON
SUNDAY EVENING AND WITH FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE MOST PLACES NORTH
OF I90 WILL SEE LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S WITH LOWER 60S SOUTH OF I90.
MODEL DIFFERENCES INCREASE ON MONDAY. THE NAM SHOWS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. AS THIS WAVE MOVES INTO
THE SD...THE 850 MB BOUNDARY IS DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN
SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN IOWA. THE GFS AND 00Z ECMWF DO NOT
REALLY SHOW THIS WAVE AND INSTEAD HAVE A WEAK WAVE MOVE EAST OUT
OF COLORADO INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT THE 850 MB BOUNDARY
REMAINS BETWEEN I80 AND HWY 20. HAVE GENERALLY SIDED WITH THIS
SOLUTION. AS A RESULT ON MONDAY...WHILE SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER AND INTO NW IA...IT WILL AGAIN BE
MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90. THERE WILL AGAIN BE DEEP
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THIS AREA AND THIS WILL RESULT IN A WELL MIXED
ATMOSPHERE. AFTERNOON DEW POINTS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 50S WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. FARTHER SOUTH...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS AND LESS MIXING...DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 60S WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S.
WITH SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY IN NRN
NEBRASKA AND LI/S AROUND -2...COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER LATE MONDAY MORNING
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MONDAY EVENING AS THE UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE IT
APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
20...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION OF THE 850 MB FRONT...HAVE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS FAR NORTH AS I90 ON MONDAY EVENING WITH 30
TO 40 PERCENT POPS AROUND SIOUX CITY AND STORM LAKE. WITH THE
BETTER CONVERGENCE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...THE
PRECIPITATION CHANCE SHOULD DECREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
FOR THE EXTENDED...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THERE ARE NOT MAJOR
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS...ECMWF...GEFS AND
CANADIAN ALL SHOW AN UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN US. THIS RIDGE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST THROUGH THE WEEK
ALTHOUGH A WEAK WAVE MOVING OVER THE RIDGE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL
PREVENT ANY WARMING ACROSS THE AREA. AND IT IS THIS WAVE THAT WILL
DEFINE ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TUESDAY LOOKS PRIMARILY DRY
EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MISSOURI
VALLEY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE THERE IS MORE
INSTABILITY. WITH LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL...HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE LOWER 80S. WEDNESDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE DRY AS WELL
ALTHOUGH THE FASTER ECMWF DOES BRING THE WAVE EAST BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. FOR THIS REASON HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. ALL MODELS BRING THIS WAVE THROUGH
LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXIST. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES DECREASE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. WITH MORE CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE OF RAIN...HIGHS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S. LOWS WILL BE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AREAS OF IFR FOG THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS INTO THE AFTERNOON
WHEN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER VALLEY/MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN
PUSH TO THE EAST THROUGH NORTHWESTERN IOWA DURING THE EVENING. THE
GREATER CHANCES OF STORMS WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
MENTIONED IN THE KFSD AN KSUX TAFS.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DUX
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM...SCHUMACHER
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS FORT WORTH TX
939 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
TAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS MOST OF OUR RED RIVER
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH MAY SLIDE IN FROM THE
NORTH AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING
OF THE COLUMN. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM...BUT PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
BAIN
&&
.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 702 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
/00Z TAFS/
NO CONCERNS...VFR.
LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHEN SPEEDS FALL TO NEAR 5KTS...THE DIRECTION
TYPICALLY VARIES...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY ENTER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TAF
SITES. OCCASIONAL MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH IN W/NW FLOW.
25
&&
.AVIATION CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE /AUGUST 2ND 1985/...30 YEARS AGO...DELTA AIR LINES
FLIGHT 191 CRASHED AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AROUND 605 PM CDT AS A RESULT OF WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A
MICROBURST. AT THE TIME OF THE INCIDENT...LITTLE WAS KNOWN ABOUT
MICROBURSTS. THE CRASH OF DELTA FLIGHT 191 WAS THE THIRD EVENT
BETWEEN 1975 AND 1985 IN WHICH AT LEAST 100 PEOPLE WERE KILLED IN
AN AIRCRAFT ACCIDENT INVOLVING A MICROBURST.
FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS INCIDENT...INCLUDING THE
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS DURING IT AND THE TECHNOLOGICAL
ADVANCES SINCE THEN...VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT...
WEATHER.GOV/FORTWORTH/?N=DELTA191
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AGAIN JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WE WILL SHOW
A MENTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY...AND THUS VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FOR EARLY AUGUST. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SO UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL BE RETURNING TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEK...BUT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON ITS EASTERN
FRINGE. THIS MEANS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE TOO
PROMINENT...AND ONCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS ENOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY BE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEK...IT IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT COULD MAKE
THE WEATHER GO FROM DRY TO - SURPRISE IT IS RAINING. AT THIS
POINT THE INGREDIENTS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION DO NOT APPEAR
TO COME IN PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...BUT AGAIN THIS IS NOT A
PATTERN WHERE DRY WEATHER IS A CERTAINTY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE HIGH PLAINS. FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW ALOFT EXISTS FOR A MCS TO
FORM AND TRACK INTO THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
JUST LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR ANY COMPLEX TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BY THIS TIME
THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE FORCING MAY INTERACT
WITH THE UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS. OTHERWISE HAVE SHOWN POPS OF
10 PERCENT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY NORTH OF I-20 BUT KEPT THE WORDED
FORECAST DRY. THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND STALL. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
AGAIN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTEND WITH
JUST HOT AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCH UP INTO
THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE WEEK. BY NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL PROMOTE HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WELL INTO MID AUGUST.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 73 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 71 98 74 98 76 / 0 10 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 75 99 78 / 5 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 72 99 75 98 77 / 0 5 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 79 100 80 100 82 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 73 99 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 100 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 98 73 99 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BROWNSVILLE TX
304 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...SATELLITE IMAGES THIS
AFTERNOON INDICATE MOSTLY MID TO HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST WITH A
SCATTERED CU FIELD ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS. THE LATEST BRO RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WATERS...20 TO
60 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF PADRE ISLAND. THE WEAK 500MB
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. THE
12Z BRO SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 1.97 INCHES. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR FARTHER INLAND. THE LATEST HRRR KEEPS
MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE CONVECTION OFFSHORE AND SOUTH OF THE
RIO GRANDE RIVER NOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING OVER THE
GULF WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...THE MAIN ISSUE IN THE
LONGER RANGE PERIOD WILL BE THE HEAT POTENTIAL ACROSS THE RGV. THE
GFS AND ECMWF BOTH RESTRENGTHEN THE 500 MB RIDGING IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS STATES NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER DEEP SOUTH TX ONCE AGAIN
YIELDING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH DAY 7. THE DEEPER LAYER
MOISTURE VALUES REMAIN PRETTY LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD. ONLY A VERY SHALLOW MOISTURE LAYER MAY
PERSIST ON THROUGH DAY 7 WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOW LEVEL CLD
COVER TO PERSIST ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE EXPECT NEAR
ZERO RAIN CHANCES TO PREVAIL.
THE GFS MEX AND ECMWF MODEL HIGH/LOW TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE
IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT. SO WILL GO WITH A GENERAL 50/50 BLEND
OF THE TWO MODEL SETS FOR TEMPS. THE GFS MEX POPS STILL TRY TO
TREND TOWARDS SOME SLGT CHC POPS LATE IN THE PERIOD. I BELIEVE
THAT THIS IS MODEL TREND IS BEING SKEWED HIGH DUE TO CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SO WILL GO CLOSER TO THE ECMWF POPS IN THE LONG TERM.
&&
.MARINE...NOW THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BUOY020 IS CURRENTLY REPORTING
SEAS OF 1 FOOT WITH NORTH WINDS NEAR 4 KNOTS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT DUE TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WESTERN
GULF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PGF WILL START OF NEXT WEEK FAIRLY
WEAK ALLOWING FOR FAIRLY LOW WINDS AND SEAS TO PREVAIL. THE PGF
WILL THEN START TO STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT STARTING LATE TUES/WED AS A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS MAY
PUSH THE WINDS AND SEAS UP LATE IN THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD TO
POSSIBLY PRODUCE SOME SCEC CONDITIONS WED/THURS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 77 92 79 94 / 10 20 10 10
BROWNSVILLE 76 94 78 95 / 10 20 10 10
HARLINGEN 75 95 77 98 / 10 40 10 10
MCALLEN 76 99 79 102 / 10 30 10 10
RIO GRANDE CITY 75 101 78 104 / 10 20 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 78 88 80 90 / 10 20 10 10
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV
SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...60
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
1241 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN THE AREA INTO SUNDAY EVENING. AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 950 AM EDT SATURDAY...
STILL MAINLY A TEMPERATURE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WEAK FRONT/TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE NW MAY GENERATE A BIT OF CU NW AS SUPPORTED BY THE NAM CU
RULE BUT EXPECTING MUCH OF THIS TO MIX OUT UNDER SUCH DRY AIR
ALOFT OFF MORNING RAOBS. LATEST NAM AND HRRR ALSO GENERATING A FEW
-SHRA FAR NORTH BUT LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN SO MUCH DRY AIR DESPITE
SOME DEWPOINT RISES SO LEAVING OUT MENTION THIS AFTERNOON. OTRW
EXPECTING ANOTHER WARM AND DRY AFTERNOON WITH A LARGE DIURNAL
SWING IN TEMPS GIVEN HEATING OF DRY AIR AND WEAK DOWNSLOPING OUT
EAST. MORNING THICKNESS AND LATEST MOS DOES SUPPORT A LITTLE BUMP
IN HIGHS SO RAISED A DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS ESPCLY EAST WHERE A
FEW LOW 90S APPEAR LIKELY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 222 AM EDT SATURDAY...
WEAK UPPER WAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND ERODE
OVER THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS REMAINS DRY SO NOT
EXPECTING ANYTHING BUT A FEW CU/SC. THIS REINFORCES THE DRIER AIR.
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE WILL BE WARM/SEASONAL...HIGHS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S MOUNTAINS...TO AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...AND IN THE ROANOKE VALLEY NORTH TOWARD LEXINGTON.
TONIGHT...SKIES STAY CLEAR WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD.
COOP MOS TAKING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AT PLACES LIKE BURKES
GARDEN AND JEFFERSON. NO THAT AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COOLER AIR BUT
THINK A FEW HIGHER VALLEYS COULD REACH 50. MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS
WILL DROP INTO THE 50S..WITH LOWER TO MID 60S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING WILL HOLD IN PLACE THROUGH THE FIRST DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE CENTER OF THE TROUGH MEANDERS AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
REGION...KEEPING THE MID ATLANTIC SITUATED IN WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
WINDFLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN SITUATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ON SUNDAY...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...POTENTIALLY BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN RIDGES
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO SURVIVE CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
HOWEVER...AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS CAUSE ANY TO DISSIPATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ON TUESDAY...PROMOTING GREATER
INSTABILITY AS WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS OUR AREA. AS THE
FRONT STALLS NORTH OF OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW
RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE ALONG THE FRONT
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC FROM THE WEST.
EXPECT A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS TROUGHING ALOFT BECOMES
LESS PRONOUNCED BY MID WEEK. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S FOR THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S FOR THE
PIEDMONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL WARM 1-2 DEGREES EACH DAY THEREAFTER.
TEMPERATURES STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE PROMOTES STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING...HOWEVER OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TOWARD MID WEEK TO MID/UPPER 60S
AREAWIDE AS CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDFLOW RETURNS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 250 AM EDT SATURDAY...
EAST-WEST BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL THEN BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE LONG-TERM PERIOD...WITH UPSTREAM SHORT WAVES
AND/OR MESOSCALE VORTICITY CENTERS FROM DECAYING OLD MIDWEST
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROVIDING SUFFICIENT ENERGY/SUPPORT TO MAINTAIN
THREAT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
GRADUALLY RISING DEW POINTS WILL SLOWLY COMPRESS THE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE CURVE BACK TO AROUND 20F AS SULTRY AIRMASS SLOWLY
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE AREA. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS DURING THE
PERIOD TO RANGE FROM THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO AROUND 70 IN THE
PIEDMONT...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM MAINLY 80S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO
LOWER-MID 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 1230 PM EDT SATURDAY...
EXPECTING CU FIELD ACROSS THE NW TO GRADUALLY EXPAND SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING. THIS MAY RESULT IN AREAS OF BKN 4-6K FT
CIGS AT TIMES FROM KLWB TO KBLF/KBCB BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SHOWERS GIVEN LOW LEVEL DRYNESS. SHOULD SEE THIS CLOUDINESS
FADE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EXCEPT PERHAPS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
RIDGES WHERE UPSLOPE WILL KICK IN AND POSSIBLY KEEP SOME SCATTERED
STRATO-CU LINGERING THIS EVENING. OTRW VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ONLY OTHER
EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME BRIEF...EARLY MORNING PATCHY RIVER OR
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG AT KLWB BUT IFFY AS TO HOW LOW VSBYS WILL GO
GIVEN LIKELY PATCHY/ISOLATED NATURE TO THE FOG. THUS KEPT TREND
TOWARD A PERIOD OF MVFR AT KLWB BUT LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ANY FOG THAT
DOES DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY MIX OUT BY 13Z/9AM SUNDAY.
SHOULD SEE LESS IN THE WAY OF CU ON SUNDAY WITH REINFORCING DRY
AIR THAT WILL LIMIT ANY RETURN MOISTURE TO LATE IN THE DAY AND
MAINLY SW OF THE TAF SITES.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MOSTLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FRONT
WILL SET UP IN THE MID ATLANTIC WHICH COULD BRING A FEW SHRA/TSRA
BY TUESDAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE COVERAGE LATER WEDNESDAY AT
THIS POINT. THUS THE THREAT OF SUB-VFR REMAINS LOW UNTIL AROUND
MIDWEEK...EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL FOG POTENTIAL AT KLWB/KBCB EACH
MORNING BETWEEN 09-13Z.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...JH/WP
SHORT TERM...NF
LONG TERM...WERT
AVIATION...JH/WP
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
323 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...
TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...LOW
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE PINNING DOWN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ALONG. 850 LLJ BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE AIMING INTO CWA WITH INCREASING
WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS ARE SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS FOR
MCS TRACK. 1000-500 MILLIBAR THICKNESS LINES/MCS MAINTENANCE
COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC MESO PAGE FAVOR MORE OF A 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
THE 12Z NAM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH WITH PRECIP INTO CNTRL/SRN WI. THE 12Z
ECMWF HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH OTHER MODELS SHOWING CONVECTION
ARRIVING AFTER 6Z ACROSS THE CWA. GIVEN THE PROGGD ELEVATED
CAPE/CONSENSUS OF LLJ FORCING AND MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL STILL
CARRY HIGH END CHANCE POPS FOR WHOLE CWA BUT WATCHING FOR A
POTENTIAL SE CURVE TO ANY MCS THAT MIGHT TAKE SHAPE THAT COULD LEAVE
PARTS OF SRN WI MORE ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF A SEWD DIVING MCS TRACK
FAVORING NE IA INTO NRN IL. WATCHING AFTERNOON VSBL ANIMATION THINKING
MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS WE WILL BE SEEING OUR ACTIVITY ORIGINATE FROM
WRN MN INTO ERN ND WHICH WOULD FAVOR SRN WI A BIT MORE. OVERALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INCLUDING LATEST HRRR FAVOR SOME CONVECTION A BIT LATER
IN THE NIGHT ACRS SRN WI HOWEVER THERE IS SOME LOSS TO THE
ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE IN THE LATEST HRRR RUN. AND THIS REFLECTED IN
THE LATEST SWODY1 WITH THE REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SRN WI.
SUNDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
COULD STILL BE DEALING WITH LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LLJ/500 MILLIBAR SHORTWAVE. THEN WILL HAVE TO
SEE HOW THE MESOSCALE DETAILS PLAY OUT. EVEN THE GFS SOUNDING IS
GENERATED CAPES OVER 2K SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 850 JET IS PROGGD TO
FOCUS MORE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE DAY WEARS ON. HOWEVER
SURFACE/850 FRONT WILL STILL BE HANGING BACK TO THE NORTH AND A
WSW LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REINFORCE MOISTURE INSTABILITY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON. CWASP SHOWING SOLID MID 70S PLUS ON ALL PROGS WITH THE
GFS SHOWING 80 PLUS BY 00Z. SO GIVEN PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL FORCING
APPROACHING WITH SURFACE/850 FRONT SWODY2 SLIGHT IS WARRANTED WITH
THE GREATEST THREAT LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY NIGHT... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT TRACKS FROM
CENTRAL WI DOWN THROUGH SOUTHEAST WI AND NORTHERN IL LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. I WENT WITH LIKELY POPS IN
SOUTHEAST WI SUNDAY EVENING... BUT IT MAY JUST BE A BROKEN LINE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS DRY
AIR SETTLES IN BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXPECTING HIGH CAPE AND SHEAR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT... ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.
A TORNADO IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY GIVEN THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL SHEAR.
.LONG TERM...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THE FIRST
PART OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW REMAINS STATIONED OVER QUEBEC.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALLOW FOR FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS.
TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONAL NORMAL MONDAY AND TUESDAY... THEN
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE MID 70S WEDNESDAY DUE TO NORTHEAST BREEZE OFF
THE LAKE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE MEDIUM.
MODELS TRY TO GENERATE AN MCS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT TRACKS
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY ANOTHER ONE INTO
FRIDAY. THE GFS IS MAINTAINING PRECIP CHANCES IN SOUTHERN WI WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND APPEARS TO HAVE SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...
WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF SHIFTED THE MAIN CHANCES FARTHER SOUTH.
EXPECT DRY HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE BACK INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEEP PRECIP CHANCES MINIMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 70S.
&&
.AVIATION/00Z TAFS/...VFR CONDITIONS AT LEAST INTO THIS EVENING.
MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS MORE PRONOUNCED LLJ AIMS INTO SRN WI. STILL SOME
TRACK UNCERTAINTY ON MCS BUT OVERALL MOIST ADVECTION WITH 850 LLJ
AND SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY WARRANTS THE CHANCE OF STORMS LATER TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH ANY STRONGER
STORMS. MESOSCALE DETAILS AFTER OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS WILL
DICTATE STORM EVOLUTION/SEVERITY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT INTERACT WITH POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. IN ADDITION WITH LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT SOME
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS POSSIBLE.
&&
.MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HOISTED FOR SUNDAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM. SW WINDS SHOULD RAMP UP PRETTY QUICK IN THE MORNING AND GET
RATHER GUSTY. COLD FRONT MAY SPAWN SOME STRONG TSTORMS LATE
AFTN/ERLY EVE.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
$$
TONIGHT/SUNDAY AND AVIATION/MARINE...COLLAR
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MRC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
300 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
AS NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW CONTINUES...MAIN CHALLENGE IN SHORT TERM IS
EXTENT OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...INCLUDING TRACK OF ANY CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS AND OVERALL STRENGTH. AREA REMAINS BETWEEN FASTER NORTHWEST
FLOW TO THE NORTH AND HIGHER INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTHWEST BUT THIS
BORDER AREA WILL COME INTO PLAY NEXT 24 HOURS IT APPEARS.
RELATIVELY SMALL AREA OF HIGHER THETA-E AND RELATED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...
COMBINED WITH SOME CONVERGENCE...HAS LED TO DEVELOPMENT OF MID LAYER
CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING BETWEEN
KLSE AND KMSP. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MINOR AS CELLS MOVE SOUTHEAST
IN MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT HAVE INTRODUCED SCATTERED ACTIVITY INTO THE
DAYBREAK HOURS.
WHILE MOST OF THE DAY WILL REMAIN QUIET...FOCUS SHIFTS ON TONIGHT.
SHORT WAVE MOVING OUT OF MONTANA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE CORNBELT REGION TODAY. RESPONSE TO THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM
OF STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT THIS EVENING
TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE DEFINED WARM FRONT.
WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
INITIALLY...QUESTIONS ABOUND ON WHERE THAT CONVECTION WILL TRACK
GIVEN FLOW AND WARM FRONT LOCATION. INITIAL ACTIVITY COULD DIVE
SOUTHEAST AND MISS MOST OF AREA...FAVORING HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE
VALUES TO THE SOUTHWEST...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO OVERDUE EXTENT OF
NORTHEAST PUSH OF HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS. 01.00Z NAM CERTAINLY
FAVORS THIS SOLUTION. AND IF THAT HAPPENS...HOW MUCH CONVECTION
WOULD FIRE NORTH OF THERE IS BIG QUESTION AS SOME MESOSCALE MODELS
ADVERTISE.
PATH OF MCS WILL BE KEY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY NEAR WARM FRONT
GIVEN EXPECTED HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR. WILL CONTINUE TO HONOR DAY 1
SLIGHT RISK BY STORM PREDICTION CENTER BUT KEEP PRODUCT SUITE IN
CONDITIONAL...LOW CONFIDENCE MODE UNTIL STORM TRACK AND BOUNDARY
LOCATION CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED. STORMS COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT
WESTERN AREAS AROUND MID EVENING /02.02Z/ AND THEN MIGRATE THROUGH
OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015
SUNDAY SETUP WILL AT LEAST PARTIALLY BE DETERMINED BY HOW TONIGHT
PLAYS OUT. STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DIVE
INTO WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE SUNDAY AND DEPENDING ON WHERE
BOUNDARY IS LINGERING...COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT. APPEARS BEST LOW
LEVEL RESPONSE TO WORK ON FRONT WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
AND NEIGHBORING AREAS. WE COULD SEE SOME INITIAL DEVELOPMENT IN
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS BEFORE CONVECTION QUICKLY MOVES OFF... OR
ACTIVITY COULD EVEN FLARE UP JUST SOUTHEAST OF AREA WHERE HIGHER
INSTABILITY LEVELS LIKELY TO BE ESTABLISHED.
RAIN THREAT QUICKLY EXITS SUNDAY EVENING AS A MORE QUIET NORTHWEST
REGIME FLOW RETURNS FOR EARLY PART OF WEEK. COOLER TEMPERATURES LOOK
ON TRACK BEHIND SUNDAYS WAVE AS WELL.
BY MID WEEK...MORE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CROSSING FLATTENING UPPER
RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL BRING RAIN THREATS BACK INTO AREA. COOLER AND
DRIER FLOW WOULD LIKELY LIMIT ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WITH THAT
ACTIVITY BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
CONFIDENCE ON ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT REMAINS PRETTY LOW
BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS FORMING OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE RUNS OF THE HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING WERE INITIALLY DRY BUT
NOW ARE SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY AS WELL. WILL LEAVE IN THE VCSH FOR
BOTH TAF SITES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP TO
AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE 01.00Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE
POOL AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE WILL BE BACK INTO THE AREA
IS VERY QUESTIONABLE. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO HAVE ONLY BROUGHT IN SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SHEA
LONG TERM...SHEA
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SMALL SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA CHANCES
LATE TONIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES/SEVERE THREAT SAT NIGHT.
18Z DATA ANALYSIS HAD STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER HUDSONS BAY AND BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS
VALLEY. PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO REMAINED OVER WI/MN/
EASTERN IA. DIURNAL WARMING AND MIXING TO 5K FT ONCE AGAIN PRODUCING
BRISK/GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. MOISTURE
CLOSER TO THE LOW AND COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPS ALLOWING FOR DIURNAL
CUMULUS ALONG/NORTHEAST OF I-94. GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.
EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF JULY.
31.12Z MODEL RUNS LOOK TO HAVE INITIALIZED QUITE WELL THIS MORNING.
SOLUTIONS VERY SIMILAR AS ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SLIDES ACROSS
THE REGION SAT THEN AS HGTS FALL SAT NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS MANITOBA AND COMING THRU THE
WESTERN NOAM RIDGING. TREND IS STRONGER WITH THE HGT FALLS/
SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING TOWARD/INTO THE REGION SAT NIGHT. GIVEN
THE TIGHT MODEL CONSENSUS...SHORT-TERM FCST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THIS
CYCLE.
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER MT THIS AFTERNOON SLIDES QUICKLY EAST-SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT...BRINGING WITH IT A ROUND OF 850-700MB WARM ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THIS WITH WEAK CAPE WHEN LIFTING PARCELS IN THE
850-700MB LAYER. RATHER CONSISTENT SIGNAL AMONG HIGH-RES/WRF MODELS
FOR THIS WEAK WAVE AND LOWER LEVEL THERMO-DYNAMIC FORCING TO PRODUCE
SOME ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...MAINLY
BETWEEN 06-12Z. ADDED A 20 PERCENT SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA MENTION TO
THIS PERIOD TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF I-94. QUIET/DRY SAT AS
HGTS RISE A BIT AND A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SFC/LOW LEVEL FLOW FINALLY SWINGS MORE WEST/SOUTHWEST
WITH LOWER LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME
INCREASE OF 700MB MOISTURE/CLOUDS LOOK TO OFFSET THE 925MB
WARMING...WITH HIGHS SAT SIMILAR TO THOSE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE SAT NIGHT...AHEAD OF THE LOWER LEVEL
TROUGH AND THE FALLING HGTS ALOFT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWING THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE/SATURATION AND RESULTING MUCAPE IS ABOVE 850MB...
WITH ANYWHERE FROM 100-500 CIN/CAPPING INDICATED FOR THE SFC-925MB
LAYER SAT NIGHT. MAJORITY OF THE FORCING/LIFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE
DROPPING TOWARD THE REGION IS OVER NORTHERN MN/NORTHERN WI WHILE
HIGHER OF THE CAPE IS OVER IA/NEARBY AREAS. PER MODEL SOUNDINGS...PW
VALUES ARE IN THE 0.75 TO 1.3 INCH RANGE SAT NIGHT. LEFT SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES SAT NIGHT IN THE 20-50 PERCENT RANGE BUT DID ADD SOME
TEMPORAL RESOLUTION BRINGING THESE CHANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH TSRA SAT NIGHT.
THIS GIVEN THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER CAPPING AND BULK SHEAR WHEN LIFTING 850-700MB PARCELS
LOOKING TO BE AROUND 20 KTS. SEE SWODY2 FOR MORE DETAILS. USED A
BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE LOWS/HIGHS FOR TONIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
MAIN FCST CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY THRU MONDAY NIGHT...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
SUN/SUN NIGHT...TEMPERATURES THRU THE PERIOD.
31.12Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE TROUGH/SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO
DROP INTO/ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT. TREND CONTINUES ON THE
STRONGER SIDE WITH THIS WAVE/ENERGY AS IT PASSES. MODELS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FOR SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE LONGWAVE LOW/TROUGH
AND WESTERN NOAM RIDGING MON/MON NIGHT. IMPROVING SIGNAL FOR SOME
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE EAST THRU THE RIDGING...REACHING
THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z TUE BUT REMAINING WELL WEST/SOUTH OF THE
FCST AREA. FCST CONFIDENCE IN THE SUN THRU MON NIGHT PERIOD IS
GENERALLY GOOD THIS CYCLE.
FCST AREA REMAINS AHEAD OF THE SFC-925MB TROUGH/FRONT SUN.
TIGHTENING CONSENSUS FOR THIS BOUNDARY TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA SUN...REACHING A KGRB-KDBQ-KDSM LINE AROUND 00Z MON. FORCING
ALONG THIS TROUGH/FRONT APPEARS TO BE RATHER WEAK...WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING NORTH/EAST OF THE FCST AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONSIDERABLE CAPPING WITH AN INVERSION BETWEEN 900-
850MB THRU MUCH OF THE DAY. FRONT MAY PASS THRU MUCH OF THE FCST
AREA BEFORE THE CAPPING ERODES ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. LEFT
SOME SMALL SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE SOUTHEAST END OF THE FCST AREA
SUN MORNING...FOR POTENTIAL OF LINGERING/SLOWING SHRA/TSRA FROM SAT
NIGHT. CARRIED A 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
SUN AFTERNOON GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND THE FRONT IN THE AREA.
LEFT SOME 20-30 PERCENT SHRA/TSRA CHANCES MAINLY SUN EVENING AND
MAINLY TO BLEND WITH NEIGHBORING GRIDS. HOWEVER...PASSAGE OF THE SFC-
850MB TROUGH/FRONT NOW LOOKS TO TAKE THE SHRA/TSRA CHANCES WITH IT
WHICH WOULD LEAVE MUCH OF THE FCST AREA DRY SUN NIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRYING SPREAD IN FOR MON/MON NIGHT. SOME WEAK LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT/ISENTROPIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS GRAZES THE
SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA LATER MON NIGHT. INCLUDED A SMALL
SHRA/TSRA CHANCE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST END OF THE FCST AREA TO
BLEND WITH THE NEIGHBORING GRIDS. WARM AIRMASS OVER THE AREA SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MDT LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION SPREADING OVER
THE AREA SUN NIGHT INTO MON BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL/ENSEMBLE
CONSENSUS OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 80S ON SUNDAY LOOKS
GOOD. STAYED WITH THE CONSENSUS BLEND OF LOWS/HIGHS FOR SUN NIGHT
THRU MON NIGHT.
FOR TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY...DAYS 4 TO 7...
MAIN FCST CONCERNS THIS PERIOD...SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR TUE NIGHT AND
BEYOND...TEMPERATURES.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS OF 31.00Z/31.12Z IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST TO REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU NEXT
WEEK. THIS AS A MID LEVEL LOW OVER JAMES BAY ON TUE DRIFTS VERY
SLOWLY EAST INTO QUEBEC BY FRI AND RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUE
ONLY MOVES TO CENTRAL NOAM BY FRI. OVERALL TREND FAVORS A TIGHTENING
CONSENSUS OF THE EARLIER RUNS. FCST CONFIDENCE FOR TUE THRU FRI IS
AVERAGE THIS CYCLE.
EVEN WITH A RATHER GOOD CONSENSUS AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN OVER NOAM TUE-FRI...PLENTY OF DETAIL DIFFERENCES WITH
SHORTWAVE DETAILS IN THE FLOW. SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE PLAINS
STAYS WEST OF THE AREA TUE...WITH SOME CONSENSUS FOR SOME PORTION OF
THIS ENERGY TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION WED. SOME SIGNAL FOR ANOTHER
WAVE TO COME THRU THE RIDGING AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THU...THEN
A MORE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE TO DROP SOUTH OUT OF CAN INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FRI. WILL LEAVE TUE DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE...A DRIER AIRMASS
AND LACK OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE STARTS
TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT/WED...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WORKING EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS.
MORE/DEEPER MOISTURE THEN PROGGED OVER THE AREA FOR WED NIGHT INTO
FRI...AS OTHER SHORTWAVES WOULD RIPPLES ACROSS THE REGION. CONSENSUS
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE FOR WED THRU FRI OKAY
FOR NOW UNTIL THE DETAILS SORT THEMSELVES OUT. WITH THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MODEL CONSENSUS TEMPERATURES A CATEGORY OR
TWO BELOW NORMAL FOR TUE-FRI APPEAR REASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015
CONFIDENCE ON ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT REMAINS PRETTY LOW
BUT STARTING TO SEE SOME CLOUDS FORMING OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA.
THE RUNS OF THE HRRR THROUGH THE EVENING WERE INITIALLY DRY BUT
NOW ARE SHOWING SOME ACTIVITY AS WELL. WILL LEAVE IN THE VCSH FOR
BOTH TAF SITES BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP TO
AMOUNT TO A WHOLE LOT. CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THE 01.00Z NAM SUGGESTS THAT
CONVECTION SHOULD FORM AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON ON THE NOSE OF THE DEVELOPING LOW
LEVEL JET. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CAPE
POOL AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE RETURN THERE WILL BE BACK INTO THE AREA
IS VERY QUESTIONABLE. THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN
THE MID AND LOW LEVELS SO HAVE ONLY BROUGHT IN SOME SCATTERED MID
LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RRS
LONG TERM....RRS
AVIATION...04
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION MOVES NORTH TODAY AS THE CENTER
OF THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TO NORTHERN UTAH. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE SOME GOOD BOOMERS DEVELOPING AROUND NOON TODAY ACROSS NE
UTAH AND NW COLORADO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NUMEROUS
IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST UTAH AND NORTHWEST
COLORADO...WITH THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT DECREASING AS THE
STORMINESS ENTERS A LESS FLASHY REGION OF THE COUNTRY. THE STRONG
WIND AND HAIL THREAT WILL INCREASE TODAY DUE TO A VEERING VERTICAL
PROFILE AND INCREASING SPEED SHEAR. THE DRIER AIR ON WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE THIS MORNING ALSO CAUSES CONCERN FOR SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AS MOISTURE IS STILL IN PLACE...DYNAMICAL FORCES
WILL BE PRESENT...AND UPPER JET SUPPORT INCREASES.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM FINALLY MOVES OUT OF UTAH AND COLORADO TONIGHT
LEAVING SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WY/UT/CO BORDER. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN EARLY TUESDAY AND
KEEP ISOLATED AFTERNOON TSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY TO THE MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
ON TUESDAY AS SUNSHINE ABOUNDS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SWRN CONUS
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE UTAH/COLORADO BORDER...EFFECTIVELY
SHUTTING DOWN THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE TAP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING...BUT HAS LIMITED MOISTURE
WITH THE BEST LIFT NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA (MAYBE A STORM OR
TWO OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY). SURFACE WINDS BECOME BREEZY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS TOWARD THE
SRN PLAINS AND THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SURGES NORTH THROUGH
ARIZONA INTO UTAH. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REACHES THE FAR SOUTH BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND HIGHER PWAT VALUES
ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. MOISTURE SURGE WILL BE PHASED WITH AN EJECTING
SHORT WAVE FROM THE WEST COAST TROUGH. SATURDAY COULD BE AN ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE DAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION WITH SOME VERTICAL SHEAR.
DRIER AIR MAY FOLLOW THE SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY AND STORM ACTIVITY
MAY BECOME LESS NUMEROUS.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS...MORE SUN MEANS WARMER TEMPS DURING MID
WEEK BUT AROUND SEASONAL NORMS. COOLING TREND OCCURS NEXT WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE/CLOUD COVER INCREASES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUING
BEYOND 09Z TOWARD THE WYOMING BORDER. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOWER VALLEY SPOTS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z.
STORMS WILL QUICKLY FIRE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...WITH HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER ERN UTAH AND MOVING EAST.
STRONG CELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH
CLEARING FROM THE WEST SPREADING EAST AFTER 00Z.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...PF
AVIATION...PF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
314 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
WEATHER TREND FOR TODAY IS AN INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER LOW AND TROF ROTATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO FAR
WESTERN WYOMING LATER TODAY WHILE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROF WILL
SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK
TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH THIS TROF AND WILL AID TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST
UNDER AN INCH WILL INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED AS WELL. HI RES MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STORM STRENGTH
TODAY AS RAP REALLY DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHICH
APPEAR OVERDONE. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
700-1500J/KG ON THE PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES.
TROF AXIS SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEST SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHILE CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DECENT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 30 TO
50KT AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. EVEN A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER
SPELLS SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE DIVIDE AND HIGHER EAST
SLOPES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH LATER TNT OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE SO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
ON TUE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS DRIER...STABLE AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE MORNING...AND
SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE AN UPRIGHT LINE OF
T-STORMS CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD RACE SEWRD
ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS AS THE 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS BY. AS
THE SAYING GOES...BEWARE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT...THE PAST FEW DAYS
MODELS INDICATED COOLER TEMPS ON TUE. NOT SO ANYMORE. LATEST MOS
TEMP GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A 2-3 DEG C WARMUP OVER READINGS ON MON.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND GREATER SUNSHINE TWO
BIG REASONS FOR THE REVERSAL AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE 35-50KTS CROSS-BARRIER FLOW TUE MORNING. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MID/UPPER EAST SLOPE WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH. SHOULD SEE
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MIXING.
BY WED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY THE AIRMASS OVER
COLORADO. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY HIGH BASED GUSTY T-
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SHIFTING EAST OF CO. THE SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MODELS SHOW RACING E-SEWRD OVER THE NRN ROCKY
MTN REGION DURING THE THU/THU NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE RESULTING ZONAL
FLOW OVER NRN CO WILL FURTHER LOWER DEWPT/PW VALUES AND LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER
BY EVENING COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT RACE SEWRD ACROSS NERN CO.
ITS POSSIBLE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY COULD GENERATE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO...BUT THE
CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING APPEARS LOW DUE TO LOW BNDRY LAYER
MOISTURE.
BY FRI...W-NWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS SWLY WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT PLAINS. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO A LONG
FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH MODELS SHOW EXTENDING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NEWRD WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME UP OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRI EVENING AND OVER N-CNTRL/NERN CO ON SAT.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE AS INDICATED...COULD SEE SHOWER/T-
STORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM SW-TO-NE ACRS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND HIGHER MOISTURE LEVELS SPELLS HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH BEST CHANCES FROM 21Z-
02Z AND THEN DIMINISHING LATER IN THE EVENING. EXPECT HEAVY RAIN
AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE SHOWERS. WITH PASSING SHOWERS COULD
RESULT IN ILS APPROACHES FOR A SHORT TIME. SURFACE WINDS WILL
SHIFT SOUTHEAST AND BECOME GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE
TROF INTENSIFIES.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ENTREKIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
RAIN HAS MOVED NORTH OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO FALL MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS LA PLATA
AND ARCHULETA COUNTIES. THIS PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE
A FLOODING THREAT THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO NEXT 6 HOURS TO REFLECT CURRENT SWATH OF RAIN
OVER WEST CENTRAL COLORADO AND EAST CENTRAL UTAH. URBAN FLOODING
WAS REPORTED IN NATURITA EARLIER BUT AREAS FROM THE PARADOX VALLEY
AND SOUTH TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL REMAIN DRY FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN REACHES THE AREA. GUSTS TO 50 MPH
HAVE BEEN REACHED OVER THE I-70 CORRIDOR NEAR GLENWOOD SPRINGS FROM
THE EAST AS COUNTERCLOCKWISE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY MAKE
THEIR WAY WEST TOWARD THE TAVAPUTS AREA. STILL ENOUGH ENERGY TO
FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS SO FLASH FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A SMALL AND TIGHT CYCLONE ASSOCIATED WITH A 500-300MB DEFORMATION
ZONE WAS ROTATING ACROSS SW MESA COUNTY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
FEATURE WAS MOVING NORTH AT 5-10 MPH WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAS BEEN CAPTURED WELL IN THE NAM12.
IT WILL LIFT FROM THE I-70 CORRIDOR INTO THE PICEANCE BASIN LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER SOUTH OF THIS LINE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE INTENSE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A STRONGER ROTATION WAS WORKING NORTHWARD INTO SE UTAH ON
THE NOSE OF THE 35KT JET. THIS WILL POTENTIALLY PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
SHOWERS FAVORING SE UTAH AND FAR SW COLORADO THROUGH THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL ALSO BECOME WIDESPREAD OVER THE SAN JUAN MTNS INTO
THIS EVENING.
THE INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WANE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...FIRST AS DIURNAL EFFECTS END...AND ALSO AS
LINGERING SMALLER SCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS DIMINISH.
THE ABOVE MENTIONED LARGER ROTATION/SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
SOUTHERN UT THIS EVENING WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
UT BY MON MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN TRACK NORTH-NORTHEAST
ACROSS NORTHEAST UT/NORTHWEST CO ON MON...AND INTO SE WY MON
EVENING. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE THE BETTER AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE NEXT
12-18 HOURS. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO WORK INTO THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER LATE TONIGHT. AND WHILE PRECIPITATION WILL STILL COVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF DURING THE MORNING...THAT AREA WILL SEE A
DRYING TREND THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER SOME DIURNAL AND TERRAIN
INDUCED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE NORTH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON
WILL BE THE CALL FOR THE DAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THAT
AREA. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO WY MON EVENING
AND WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTH WHERE MORE DRYING WILL HAVE
OCCURRED BY EARLY TUE MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
THE RIDGE REBOUNDS ON TUE WITH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE IN THE WORK WEEK BEFORE
THE NEXT SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAKES IT INTO THE REGION.
MODELS DO SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER STATES AND BRUSHING OUR FORECAST AREA WED
NIGHT/THU. AS A RESULT...WINDS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH
WED AFTERNOON. BUT SO FAR...MODELS HAVE INDICATED ONLY MINOR
IMPACTS FROM THIS PASSING WAVE.
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FRI NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON SAT FOR
A POTENTIALLY WET NEXT WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THEN WILL COOL FOR THE WEEKEND.
IN THE DRIER AIR...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH 09Z TONIGHT...WITH ISOLATED -SHRA/-TSRA CONTINUING
BEYOND 09Z TOWARD THE WYOMING BORDER. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN
SOME LOWER VALLEY SPOTS BETWEEN 10Z-15Z.
STORMS WILL QUICKLY FIRE BETWEEN 15Z-18Z...WITH HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTING CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER ERN UTAH AND MOVING EAST.
STRONG CELLS IS POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAINS ACROSS
THE NRN HALF. CONVECTIVE STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING AFTER 00Z WITH
CLEARING FROM THE WEST SPREADING EAST AFTER 00Z.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3AM MON MORNING. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...ONE TIGHT ROTATION
LIFTING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...AND A LARGER
LOW PRESSURE SHORTWAVE APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE AREA AS THEY SHIFT NORTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THESE DISTURBANCES IN COMBINATION WITH THE
DEEP MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH SOME STORMS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. IN
ADDITION...RECENT RAINS HAVE RESULTED IN LOCALLY SATURATED SOILS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST CO AND SOUTHEAST UT. THEREFORE FLASH
FLOODING...AS WELL AS DEBRIS AND MUD FLOWS ACROSS ROADWAYS...HIGH
FLOWS IN SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS...AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IN
NORMALLY DRY WASHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN INTENSITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
ALSO SEE THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION ABOVE.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JAM
SHORT TERM...JOE+EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...PF
HYDROLOGY...EH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1121 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT LOOKS MINIMAL AS
SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS AND LATEST MESOSCALE MODELS SUGGEST TSRA
WILL CONTINUE TO FADE...WITH MAINLY LIGHT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS -SHRA
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WILL CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH A LITTLE EARLY AND TRIM BACK OVERNIGHT POPS MOST
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TOMORROW...SOME ON THE STRONG SIDE...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE
NOW MOVING THROUGH AZ AND UT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE TO THE NE THIS
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PERSIST.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER UT MOVING INTO
NW CO BY 12-15Z MON MORNING. AM PARTICULARLY CONCERNED BY THE
LATEST HIGH RES WRF AND HRRR RUNS...WHICH BOTH SHOW A STRONG BAND
OF HEAVY PRECIP MOVING THROUGH SW-CENTRAL CO BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS WOULD COINCIDE WITH STRONGEST UPPER FORCING FROM THE
SHORT WAVE. IN COORDINATION WITH KGJT AND KABQ HAVE EXPANDED OUR
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE SAN JUANS TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE
CONTDVD...ALONG WITH THE SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE...THROUGH 09Z
TONIGHT. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE EXTENDED SLIGHTLY IF THE BANDED HEAVY
PRECIP GETS A DELAYED START...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW INTENSE THE PRECIP WILL BE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE STRONGEST
FORCING WILL OCCUR DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN CONVECTION IS
GENERALLY LESS INTENSE. NEVERTHELESS...ANYONE PLANNING ON BEING IN
OR TRAVELING THROUGH THE MTS THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT NEEDS TO BE
AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD-PRODUCING RAINS...WHICH COULD
LEAD TO SUDDEN SMALL STREAM RISES...FLOODED ROADWAYS...AND MUD OR
ROCK SLIDES IN THE STEEPER TERRAIN.
TOMORROW...THE UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE DURING THE
DAY...INTO SRN WY BY 00Z TUE. THIS WILL BRING SEVERAL MORE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO INCREASE OVER THE PLAINS. ALONG WITH
INCREASED SHEAR...THIS WILL RAISE THE THREAT OF SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVER THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE SERN PLAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF HGWY 50
AND E OF I-25...AND THIS IS WHERE THE STRONGEST STORMS LIKELY WILL
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON. LOWER TEMPS ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASED LLVL
MOISTURE AND PRECIP/CLOUDS WILL HOLD HIGH TEMPS A GOOD 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW THE HIGH TEMPS FROM TODAY...SO WILL SEE MAINLY TEMPS IN THE
70S AND 80S MON AFTERNOON. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MON NIGHT...AS AN UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF SERN
CO AND AN UPR TROF MOVES NORTHWARD INTO WY...THE ISOLD TO SCT PCPN
ACRS THE FORECAST SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT. ON TUE AN
UPR RIDGE AXIS WL LIE FROM AZ INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION...
RESULTING IN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT OVR THE FORECAST AREA. THE LATEST
RUN OF THE NAM AND GFS SHOWS DRIER CONDITIONS FOR TUE...WITH MAINLY
JUST SOME ISOLD PCPN CHANCES. TUE NIGHT SFC HIGH PRESSURE BACKS INTO
ERN CO AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MSTR AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...THE NAM PRINTS OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS LATE TUE NIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING...HOWEVER WL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
ON WED THE UPR RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVR CO WITH RELATIVELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THRU MUCH OF THE DAY WITH MAINLY JUST SOME
ISOLD PCPN OVR AND NR THE MTN AREAS. HOWEVER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
MAY ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND MOVE THRU ERN CO IN THE EVENING
HOURS TO HELP KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACRS THE PLAINS. ON THU THE
UPR RIDGE GETS FLATTENED ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHORTWAVE
TROF MOVES THRU MT WY AND NRN CO. ONLY SOME ISOLD PCPN IS EXPECTED
THU AFTERNOON...BUT THEN AS THAT DISTURBANCE MOVES OFF INTO THE
PLAINS STATES THE ECMWF IS STILL SHOWING AN MCS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING PORTIONS OF ERN CO BY THU EVENING.
FRI AN UPR TROF IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVR CA...WITH AN UPR RIDGE BEING
OVR CO. MSTR STILL LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DURING THE
DAY...WITH MAYBE JUST SOME ISOLD TO SCT PCPN OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
THEN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AS THAT UPR TROF MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
INTO ID AND UT...MONSOON MSTR IS EXPECTED TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD INTO
WESTERN CO AGAIN WHICH WL INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR PCPN...ESPECIALLY
OVR THE MTNS AND HIGH VALLEYS. AS THE UPR DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD
ACRS MT AND WY SAT NIGHT...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACRS THE ERN
CO PLAINS. THEN BY SUN IT LOOKS LIKE THE FORECAST AREA WL AGAIN BE
CUTOFF FROM THE MONSOON MSTR...LEADING TO DRIER CONDITIONS AGAIN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS OF 05Z...AND WILL KEEP A
VCSH MENTION AT KALS UNTIL 09Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE...THOUGH
CIGS/VIS AT THE TERMINAL WILL REMAIN VFR. ON MON...UPPER TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY TRIGGER EARLY TSRA OVER THE
MOUNTAINS BEFORE 18Z...WITH A THREAT OF CONVECTION AT ALL
TERMINALS FROM 18Z-19Z INTO THE EARLY EVENING. LOCAL MVFR/BRIEF
IFR EXPECTED UNDER HEAVIER STORMS...AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
REMAINS PLENTIFUL. 01Z-03Z...CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH STORMS ON THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO KS
AFTER 03Z.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...PETERSEN
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...PETERSEN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1131 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 624 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A CONVERGENT SURFACE BOUNDARY SUPPORTED BY A FEW SMALL SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS ALOFT ARE CAUSING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF HIGHWAY 83
EARLY THIS EVENING...SO ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST THUNDERSTORM TRENDS. RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES
A CAPE AXIS THAT APPEARS TO FOLLOW HIGHWAY 83 WITH INCREASING
VALUES TO THE EAST...SO NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD STORMS TO DEVELOP
WEST OF THE HIGHWAY. WITH SOME AVAILABLE CAPE TO THE EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83...CURRENTLY EXPECTING STORMS TO CONTINUE SOUTHWARD
BEFORE TAPERING OFF JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT MDT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
A RIDGE WILL RESIDE OVER THE ROCKIES THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RESIDE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THIS
TIME.
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING WILL LIMIT COVERAGE OF STORMS
TONIGHT. A MINOR SHORTWAVE CAN BE OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER EASTERN WYOMING. PLAN ON SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE NORTHWEST
FA TONIGHT. STRONGER FORCING STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE FA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST FA DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS THERE AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE EAST.
MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S IN EASTERN
COLORADO TO THE LOWER 90S IN THE EASTERN FA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT...GUIDANCE IS COMING INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON TIMING/EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH MONDAY EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY. GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WITH
TWO DISTINCT SPLITS. THE STRONGEST OF THEM WILL BE NORTH...HOWEVER
THE SOUTHER SPLIT APPEARS TO TRACK OVER OUR CWA...AND WHILE THERE
ARE MINOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS (GFS SHOWS CLOSED H7 LOW OVER
OUR CWA)...IMPACTS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR WITH STRONGER PRECIP SIGNAL
DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIOD MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PART OF OUR CWA WHERE I HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. NAM CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DRIER SIGNAL DESPITE FAVORABLE LIFT/MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...SO
I LEANED TOWARDS OTHER GUIDANCE IN POP/QPF. THE TREND IS ALSO
QUICKER ON CLEARING CONDITIONS TUESDAY WHICH WILL FAVOR A QUICKER
RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AS WESTERLY FLOW/SUBSIDENCE SPREADS EAST.
NAM DOES INDICATE A WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE PLAINS
BEHIND THIS FIRST/STRONGER FEATURE...HOWEVER WITH LITTLE CONSISTENCY
I DECIDED TO FAVOR CONDITIONS CLEARING FROM THE SW TO NE TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.
REGARDING IMPACTS...VERY MOIST AIR MASS...SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...AND WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WOULD FAVOR EFFICIENT
RAIN PROCESSES...AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL CERTAINLY BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN. SEVERE THREAT IS MARGINAL CONSIDERING
HIGHEST CAPE VALUES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE AND
BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER IS GENERALLY AROUND 20-25KT. EARLY MONDAY
EVENING DCAPE APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND HIGHER TD DEPRESSIONS
WITHIN MIXED LAYER MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PROGRESSIVE/WESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS QUICKLY
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. EACH OF THESE FEATURES COULD
BRING WITH IT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FALLING HEIGHTS/QUASI
STATIONARY FRONT WITHIN VICINITY OF OUR CWA COULD FAVOR HIGHS
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE MID 80S BY NEXT WEEKEND RATHER THAN
SEASONAL UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S...THIS DEPENDS ON TIMING OF THESE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN POPS CONTINUES TO BE
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS
SHOW BETTER OVERLAP/CONSISTENCY. IT IS STILL FAR ENOUGH OUT TO BE
SKEPTICAL ON TIMING AS THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN
EVOLUTION/ENSEMBLE SPREAD...SO I LIMITED POPS TO CHANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM MDT SUN AUG 2 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
BOTH KGLD AND KMCK.
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD FOR KGLD...BUT
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS SHAKY AS TO THE TRACK AND COVERAGE OF
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. MODEL TRENDS LATELY SEEM TO KEEP
PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL...SO LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
TAF AT THIS TIME.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MK
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...MK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THIS
WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
LIKELY ENCOURAGING THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG IN THE RIVER VALLEYS.
THE FOG WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE TOWARDS DAWN. ACCORDINGLY...
BROUGHT SOME IFR OR LOWER VIS/CIG INTO THE SME AND SJS SITES WITH
MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT SYM...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. ALL THE FOG
WILL LIFT SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT AND
POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR
THIS...HAVE LEFT MENTION OF VCTS IN THE SYM TAF AFTER 21Z. AS FOR
WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF
THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL THE TAF SITES...HOWEVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE WSW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AS IT DROPS TOWARD THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW STRONG SHRTWV
APRCHG THE UPR GREAT LKS IN DEEP CYC NW FLOW ARND CLOSED LO OVER FAR
NRN ONTARIO. THERE HAVE BEEN WAVES OF SHOWERS/ELEVATED TS THAT HAVE
MOVED THRU UPR MI AS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THE SHRTWV
HAS LIFTED UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOWN ON THE 12Z AND 18Z GRB RAOBS
/H7-5 LAPSE RATES AOA 8C/KM/. MOST OF THE TS HAVE IMPACTED LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WI BORDER WHERE RUC ANALYSIS MUCAPES HAVE BEEN UP TO 1000
J/KG UNDER AXIS OF HIER H85 THETA E. ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE STORMS
EARLIER THIS MRNG WERE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...LOTS OF CLD COVER
OVER UPR MI HAVE MAINTAINED MORE ELEVATED CORES HAVE LIMITED THE
SEVERITY OF THE CONVECTION MOST OF THE DAY DESPITE IMPRESSIVE DEEP
LYR SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS UNDER RIBBON OF STRONG WNW WINDS
ALOFT. THE SHOWERS ARE TENDING TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CWA WITH
ARRIVAL OF NEGATIVE H85 THETA E ADVECTION/MID-LVL DRYING/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC AND MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES DEPICTED ON THE 12Z INL
RAOB.
LATE THIS AFTN...WHILE MORE NMRS SHOWERS/TS MAY IMPACT THE SE
CWA...THE ARRIVAL OF MORE MARGINAL LAPSE RATES ACCOMPANYING DEEP LYR
QVECTOR CNVGC WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THIS CONVECTION.
TNGT...AFTER ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TS OVER THE SE CWA END AFTER
EARLY EVNG...LARGER SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING IN THE WAKE OF PASSING
SHRTWV WL BRING A CLEARING TREND. AS UPR TROF AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPR
LKS...LLVL SLGTLY CYC NW FLOW BEHIND COLD FROPA IS FCST TO DROP H85
TEMPS AS LO AS 6 TO 7C BY 12Z MON. WITH THIS THERMAL TROF...EXPECT
INCRSG LO CLDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE NW
CWA.
MON...CYC H85 NW FLOW IS PROGGED TO PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THERMAL
TROF OVER THE CWA...SO EXPECT A GOOD DEAL OF CLD COVER. COMBINATION
OF DATYIME HEATING AND PASSING SHRTWV MAY BRING SOME SCT SHOWERS...
MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE AFTN. WITH
H85 TEMPS FCST IN THE 8 TO 10C RANGE...EXPECT MAX TEMPS MAINLY IN
THE 60S...EXCEPT 70 TO 75 IN THE DOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE SCENTRAL.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
SPENT A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME WORKING SHORT FUSE OPERATIONS
TODAY GIVEN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM AND LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS IN THE LONG TERM. ADDITIONALLY...CONSENSUS GUIDANCE HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE LONG TERM SITUATION SO TIME WAS BEST SPENT
HELPING IN THE SHORT TERM.
BASIC IDEA IS THAT WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVES NE OF THE CWA MON NIGHT
INTO TUE...COULD SEE SHOWERS AND MAYBE T-STORMS DUE TO DECREASED MID-
UPPER LEVEL TEMPS AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH. BEST
COVERAGE SHOULD BE DURING THE DAY ON TUE WITH GREATEST SFC HEATING.
WED LOOKS DRY WITH A SFC RIDGE OVERHEAD. THU THROUGH FRI MAY BE DRY
AS WELL...BUT REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL BE MORE IMPACTED BY AN
INCREASE IN SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY AND A RESULTING INCREASE IN
UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD SEE BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
THAT IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AS WELL. OVERALL...LEANED HEAVILY ON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE LONG TERM.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
LARGE MASS OF LOWER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH EXPANSIVE LOW PRES N OF
THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE ROTATING SE AND WILL AFFECT
KIWD/KCMX/KSAW THRU THIS FCST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH A WELL MIXED/DRY NEAR SFC LAYER...CIGS MAY
DROP INTO THE HIGH END OF MVFR AT KCMX AND POSSIBLY AT KSAW TODAY.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THERE COULD BE ISOLD -SHRA AND/OR
SPRINKLES AT TIMES AS WELL.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 343 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015
EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LO PRES NEAR
HUDSON BAY. THE ARRIVAL OF A HI PRES RIDGE LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT WINDS UNDER 15 KTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...ROLFSON
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
314 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2015
...Weather Pattern Becoming More Unsettled and Stormy This
Week...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The overall weather is beginning to shift today and become more
active and unsettled for the Missouri Ozarks region this week. We
will see one more very warm day today with highs back in the lower
to middle 90s. Humidity values and dew points are not
exceptionally high so the heat index this afternoon will be about
a few degrees warmer than the actual air temperatures...maybe
middle to possibly upper 90s.
There is currently a weakening complex of convection near the
Kansas City area which is moving southeastward. HiRes models
continue to show this area to further weaken and dissipate. This
complex could leave an outflow boundary across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks later today.
The HRRR and the 4KM WRF has been indicating this potential for
some isolated to widely scattered redevelopment of convection this
afternoon and evening...mainly along a Fort Scott to Springfield
to West Plains line and northward. With that said...will leave in
a 20 percent pop for these areas for a few afternoon
thunderstorms. There may be just enough instability for an
isolated strong storm or two with wind gusts up to 50 mph and
small hail up to nickel size as the main threat. SPC has this area
highlighted in a marginal risk today for this potential.
A low level jet will develop later tonight and may interact with
this stalled out frontal boundary that will be somewhere located
across northern and central Missouri tonight. This LLJ and
boundary interacting will develop additional scattered convection
late tonight across the central Missouri area with a movement to
the southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The more active weather pattern gets going starting Tuesday. The
first of several upper level waves moves out across the Central
Plains into the Missouri Ozarks region up and over the flat upper
level ridge that will be located across the southwestern U.S. Will
have to continue to monitor trends for a few strong to marginally
severe storms possible depending on timing and materialized
instability. The threat again would be isolated damaging wind
gusts and small hail. Thunderstorm chances increases late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night from west to east across the Ozarks.
Showers and storms will be likely and linger into Wednesday as
this will be a slow moving system.
WPC has the area along and northwest of I-44 highlighted in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and the entire area
for a slight risk on Wednesday. If training of storms
occur...there will be a limited flash flooding threat especially
for the northern half of the area.
The frontal boundary will be stalled out and linger in the area
through the middle of the week. Another strong mid level wave will
move across the area Thursday night into early Friday. There will
also be a stout low level jet Thursday night which will enhance
convection development near that front across central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks.
Overall average rainfall from Tuesday through Friday will be
about 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. The heaviest
rainfall appears to be across central Missouri and tapering off
towards Arkansas border. Temperatures will be slightly cooler mid
to end of the week with the added cloud cover and rain
chances...highs in the middle to upper 80s.
The forecast models show the upper level ridge will try to
build back across the southern Plains region by next weekend with
the GFS hotter and drier for the Ozarks and the ECMWF still
keeping the "ring of fire" weather pattern near Central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. With this forecast update...will maintain
increasing temperatures into next weekend and slight chances for
storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Outflow
boundaries entering from the north do bear watching for Monday
afternoon evening as a focus of isolated shower/storm development,
but confidence is much too low at this point to suggest any TAF
sites will be involved. Light winds the rest of the overnight
hours will give way to southwest winds during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1206 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2015
...Update to Aviation Section...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection continues to move into northern Missouri at this hour.
Storm mode has transition from cellular to a more linear/bowing
segment. The airmass to the south of this activity is more stable
as compared to northern Missouri. That said, the trend for cells
to organize do maintain a risk of cold pool production and a
longer life span. Will continue to monitor radar/observation
trends and potentially increase PoPs across central Missouri.
UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Convection has struggled mightily to fire in the airmass across
the region so far today. There has been a lone shower in
Texas/Shannon county, otherwise the cumulus field has begun to
shrink. Unless additional activity can fire in the next hour,
chances for rain in the near term are quite low.
We are watching convection firing to our north across Iowa and
Nebraska. Recent HRRR runs push a decaying line of showers into
central Missouri around/after midnight. If the cells to the north
can congeal and organize a cold pool, such a solution is
plausible. However, there are some negatives. The airmass overhead
is on the dry side and considerably less unstable. After sunset,
this airmass will only get more stable, so support for convection
will be tied to any organization/outflow boundary potential. For
now, will keep PoPs as is and watch incoming soundings and
observations.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Seasonable summertime conditions are underway across the region this
afternoon, as temperatures warm into the low 90s. Dewpoints,
especially along the higher terrain of the Plateau, have been able
to mix down into the low to mid 60s, keeping humidity levels fairly
comfortable by early August standards.
A few isolated thunderstorms aren`t entirely out of the question
this afternoon across south central Missouri, but most locations
should remain dry through sunset. Anything that does develop this
afternoon is expected to dissipate fairly quickly with the loss of
daytime heating.
A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave moving through the
Great Lakes will move south toward the region tomorrow, though at
this point it appears that it will stall out just north and east of
the CWA. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this
boundary tomorrow, but it`s very much in question how far south
activity will make it before fizzling out. For now will maintain
slight chance PoPs along the northern and eastern periphery of the
forecast area. For most of the region tomorrow should be very
similar to today, with highs again in the low 90s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
Rain chances will then begin to increase Tuesday afternoon and
evening, as shortwave undercuts the upper level ridge and moves east
across the Great Plains toward the area. One or more complexes of
storms are expected to develop and move toward/through the region
Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low level jet develops over
southern Kansas and Oklahoma. Along with the actual MCS(s), remnant
MCVs and/or outflow boundaries likely adding complexity to the
overall picture. Any severe weather threat will be highly
conditional on clearing and associated destabilization, and this is
a short term forecast issue that likely won`t become clear until at
least Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.
Additional storms will then be possible Thursday during the
afternoon, as well as again that night as the LLJ ramps up over the
region. Thunderstorm chances will likely persist into at least part
of the day on Friday.
Temperatures during the latter portion of the workweek should remain
around or just below average, as convection and cloud cover keep
things from heating up too much.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1206 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Outflow
boundaries entering from the north do bear watching for Monday
afternoon evening as a focus of isolated shower/storm development,
but confidence is much too low at this point to suggest any TAF
sites will be involved. Light winds the rest of the overnight
hours will give way to southwest winds during the day Monday.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Gagan
SHORT TERM...Boxell
LONG TERM...Boxell
AVIATION...Gagan
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
1156 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS EVENING)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
CU FIELD IS GETTING A LITTLE MORE AGITATED ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI
AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND THE HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL
OF SOME PULSE STORMS...SO HAVE INCLUDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
OTHERWISE...ITS HOT OUTSIDE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90S AND
HEAT INDICES CLOSING IN ON THE CENTURY MARK IN SOME LOCALS.
CVKING
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL DROP
SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND
MEAGER SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL KEEPS POPS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY OVERNIGHT AND NOT MENTIONABLE TOMORROW MORNING. DAYTIME
HEATING TOMORROW AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED
CONVECTION NEAR THE STALLED FRONT BUT BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WHEN MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE
FRONT FROM NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS. HAVE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BUT ANTICIPATE
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE NEEDED.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE WEEK AS THE QUASI-
STATIONARY FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING.
CVKING
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
I`VE INCLUDED A SHORT TEMPO GROUP AT THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF
PERIOD FOR KCOU DUE TO WEAKENING CLUSTER OF STORMS TRACKING
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE I EXPECT A DRY NIGHT
WITH VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON MONDAY. THERE WILL PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS
(20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL
IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. THERE WILL
PROBABLY BE ISOLATED-SCATTERED STORMS (20-30% PROBABILITY) WITH
THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LOW COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAINTY WITH LOCATION AND TERMINAL IMPACTS, I HAVE OPTED TO
NOT MENTION ANY THUNDER IN THE KSTL TAF AT THIS TIME.
GLASS
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHED EAST WEST ACROSS CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST ARE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY COMBINING WITH SHEAR
OF 30 TO 40 KTS AND CAPE OF AROUND 2000 J/KG TO PRODUCE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS.
&&
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE NEBRASKA SANDHILLS TONIGHT
AND A MID LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS HAVE EXPANDED ISOLATED CHANCES THROUGH THE SANDHILLS
AFTER 03/06Z. DYNAMICS ARE NOT GREAT BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT ISOLATED
CHANCES ALONG THE ENTIRE BOUNDARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A STALLED MID LEVEL FRONT. MOISTURE IS DECENT AND SHEAR IS
MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
STORMS WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST AND EXPECT THEM TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. OVERNIGHT A WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND THE
LATEST RAP BRINGS SOME QPF THROUGH THE REGION. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
KEEP TEMPS UP...HOWEVER EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE SCT TO ISOLD WITH
BREAKS TO ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO COOL DOWN AND WENT WITH GUIDANCE.
TOMORROW COOLER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE DAYS 2 AND 3 PERIOD INVOLVE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SWD ADVANCING FRONT CURRENTLY WHICH
STALLS AND RETREATS SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THIS PERIOD. UPPER PATTERN
INFLUENCED BY UPPER LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WITH AN UPPER JET AND
ASSOCIATED PV ANOMALIES MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES AREA. AS THE JET ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW...UPPER
FORCING WANES AND TRANSITIONS EWD AND SFC HIGH SLIDES SEWD.
MEANWHILE SIGNIFICANT LEAD PV ANOMALY ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
CONTINUING ITS NEG TILT. AS THIS OCCURS SFC TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING A RETURN TO STRONG SRLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW WHICH PUSHES THE BOUNDARY NWD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
LEAD PV ANOMALY WILL ENTER THE HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUES THOUGH
THE MODELS DIFF SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND EVENTUAL LOCATION. THIS
WILL OBVIOUSLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CAN
MAXIMIZE ALONG THE RETREATING FRONT. SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS ONLY
AVERAGE...HOWEVER SERLY FLOW LEVEL FLOW INITIALLY WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH MUCH BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING SHOULD SEE BETTER PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY THAN OF LATE.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS AND DOWNSTREAM TROUGHING ALONG THE PAC NW WILL
FLATTEN THE TRANSITORY CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE LEADING TO QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEB. THIS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH QUICKER MOVING SUBTLE PV ANOMALIES /SHORT WAVES/ HELPING TO
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES...AND GENERALLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THIS TYPE OF
PATTERN WILL TYPICALLY BE MODERATE AND GENERALLY AT OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED NATURE OF STORMS HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT KVTN AND
KLBF. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY
WITH WINDS EXPECTED LESS THAN 10KTS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WITH VFR
CEILINGS EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...POWER
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...JWS
AVIATION...POWER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
WILL LET THE SVR TSTM WATCH EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT.
THE STORMS IN SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND RAP MODEL RUNS SUPPORT THAT.
THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THERE BE ANY MORE DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT NEW STORMS BUT IT
APPEARS IF THERE IS ANYTHING IT WOULD BE TOWARD MORNING AND ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...BUT CHANCES BETTER THERE AFTER 14Z.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
ATMOSPHERE AT 22Z WAS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESO PAGE WAS
SHOWING 100 MB ML CAPE VALUES OVER 5000 J/KG ALONG SOUTHWARD MOVING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EFFECTIVE SHEAR GENERALLY LESS THAN 30 KNOTS BUT
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THE EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ADVERTISING A QUITE NOTICEABLE COOLING
TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ALL THIS IN PART TO NW FLOW ALOFT
BRINGING A CANADIAN AIR MASS INTO THE LOWER 48 WITH THE BRUNT OF CAA
DROPPING DOWN THRU THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FOR TONIGHT...NAM12 BNDRY LYR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS QUITE OVERDONE
IN COMPARISON TO GFS20 SOLUTION WITH THE LATEST ECM/CMC LENDING
SUPPORT SHOWING TO A DRIER AIR MASS QUICKLY FILTERING IN. AND AT
THIS POINT BELIEVE SMALL OVERNIGHT POPS IS REASONABLE. ON MONDAY THE
BNDRY IS PROGGED TO STALL OUT IN THE VICINITY OF THE SRN CWA WITH
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ON EDGE OF CAP. STRENGTHENING LLVL JET MONDAY
NIGHT WILL THEN RESULT IN INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF PCPN
ACTIVITY OVER THE CWA.
SFC BNDRY ADVERTISED TO SLOWLY LIFT AND FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN IN
THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE NERN CWA TUESDAY WHERE AFTN INSTABILITY
AXIS WILL SET UP PER THE NAM12/GFS20. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN FOCUS
FOR POPS IN THOSE PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS FOR WED...WILL CONTINUE
SMALL POPS IN LIGHT OF VIGOROUS LITTLE VORT MAX TRACKING THRU.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING
PREVAILING OVER THE CONUS. GFS/ECM/CMC QPF PLACEMENT APPEAR TO BE
GENERALLY SIMILAR...BUT BELIEVE THEY ARE SOMEWHAT EXCESSIVE
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PDS. AND FOR NOW ONLY MINOR TWEAKS
MADE TO GOING POP FCST.
REGARDING TEMPS...METEOGRAMS ACROSS THE CWA INDICATE BELOW NORMAL
MAX TEMPS ARE IN STORE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH AFTN HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
TSRA CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME...
AND HAVE KEPT FORECASTS VFR. WILL NEED TO ADJUST IF TIMING OR
LOCATION OF POSSIBLE STORMS BECOMES MORE CLEAR. DID MENTION SOME
SHRA AT KOFK BETWEEN 14Z AND 17Z.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
158 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT
AND REACH QUEBEC ON MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
BAND OF CONVECTION WITH COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH TO BE
JUST NORTH OF LAKE ERIE. SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS HAVE MISSED THIS
LATEST SURGE SOUTH TOWARD LAKE ERIE WHICH CALLS INTO QUESTION THE
PROGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT BY THESE MODELS. RAP AND HRRR REALLY
START TO DIVERGE BY THE END OF THE NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE WITH
ONGOING FORECAST PLAN...BRINGING BAND OF CONVECTION INTO THE CWA
AROUND 05Z AND MOVING MOST OF THE BAND SE OF LAKE ERIE BY 12Z. A
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE PRESENT AS THE CONVECTION ARRIVES IN NW OH
BUT THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SO DON`T EXPECT MUCH OF A
SEVERE THREAT ANYWHERE BEYOND NW OH.
LOW TEMPS STILL LOOK FINE IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 FOR ONE MORE
NIGHT IN THE WARM SECTOR BUT DID LOWER BY A DEGREE OR TWO IN THE
SOUTH/SE AS DEWPOINTS A LITTLE LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS NWRN OHIO BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES. WHILE THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON THE NAM12 CONTINUES TO SHOW SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR AT LEAST CHANCE POPS INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALSO A
FAIRLY STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WHICH WILL BE JUST TO OUR NORTH. IN ALL...WILL ONLY SLOWLY
DECREASE POPS EAST THROUGH THE DAY. MONDAY NIGHT THE NAM AND GFS
BOTH SHOW DRYING MOVING IN FROM THE WEST ALTHOUGH DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE JUST TO
OUR NORTH. THE NAM IS DRIER THAN THE GFS HERE BUT WILL SIDE MORE
TOWARD THE NAM AND GO WITH A DRY FORECAST MOST AREAS. WILL KEEP A
LOW CHANCE POP NWRN PA AND FAR NERN OHIO AS THE WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE SHOULD CATCH THAT AREA FIRST. TUESDAY ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME
OF THIS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE TO DROP INTO AT LEAST THE NERN PORTION
OF THE AREA. WILL BRING CLOUDS INTO THE NE FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH
CHANCE POPS. CONTINUED DRY AND PC REMAINDER OF THE AREA. WEDNESDAY
THE UPPER LOW TRIES TO SHIFT EAST. MODELS DIFFER OF THE CHARACTER
OF THE DAY HOWEVER AS THE NAM SHOWS A DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA
WITH SUBSIDENCE AND A SURFACE HIGH. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE
QUICKLY MOVING THE DRY AIR EAST AND MOVING IN A SHORT WAVE AND
DEEP MOISTURE OUT OF THE MIDWEST. THE ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE AS
WELL HOWEVER IT REMAINS FURTHER WEST. FOR NOW WILL ONLY BRING A
LOW CHANCE POP TO THE FAR SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE DRY ELSEWHERE. WILL EXPAND THE CHANCE POPS A BIT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND THE TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST...LOW/MID 70S ONLY.
SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS AND TO THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY. A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY
THURSDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE MORE FIRMLY ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE TIMING AND TRACK ADJUSTMENTS THAT WILL NEED
TO BE MADE WITH THIS SYSTEM.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SE ACROSS NORTHERN
OHIO AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST
AT SITES NEARER TO THE LAKESHORE THROUGH 4 AM. THIS LINE WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES DEEPER INTO OHIO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR
TOLEDO AROUND 12Z WITH A WIND SHIFT...THEN SETTLE NORTH OF
COLUMBUS THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT. LEFT MENTION OF BRIEF
MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE NW. THE WIND WILL
REMAIN VERY GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SO LEFT MENTION OF PROB30 TSRA FOR SOUTHERNMOST
TERMINALS...TO INCLUDE MANSFIELD.
OUTLOOK...THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR NON VFR WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
IT WILL BE A RATHER BREEZY PERIOD ON THE LAKE FROM THIS
EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE LAKE EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF IT A COUPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN BASIN BY
6PM AND THEY MAY BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE
STORMS WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
EVENING TO 25 KNOTS...SHIFTING TO THE WEST ON MONDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON AND DECREASING SOME. HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EASTWARD STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE SOUTHWEST AS A SECONDARY TROUGH APPROACHES FOR TUESDAY. WINDS
WILL PEAK AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THIS TROUGH. FINALLY BY WEDNESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND WIND/WAVES WILL
CALM DOWN. FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO
THE NORTHEAST AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE
VIRGINIAS TO END THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LEZ147>149.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ142-143.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
LEZ144>146.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...MAYERS
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PORTLAND OR
900 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST AS AN
UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST STEERS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
OVER WESTERN OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON. THIS MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOR A THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE
B.C. COAST THEN MOVES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATER
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
MORNING CLOUDS TO THE AREA FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
&&
.UPDATE...MOISTURE AND LIMITED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO FLOW
NORTHWARD AROUND WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. 00Z SLE SOUNDING SHOWED
MOST OF THE MOISTURE ABOVE 700 MB...BUT RELATIVELY DRY DOWN LOW FOR
NEGLIGIBLE CAPE AND MOSTLY TRACE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EARLIER
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE IN THERMODYNAMICS
OVERNIGHT... ALTHOUGH SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE 850-700 MB ALONG
WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SWRN ORE PROGGED TO REACH NWRN ORE AROUND
09Z. HRRR DEVELOPS AN AREA OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS IN A BAND FROM
CNTRL OREGON COAST TO EASTERN PDX METRO BETWEEN 06-08Z...LIFTING
NORTHWARD THEREAFTER. SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AND GIVEN SLIGHT INCREASE IN
LOWER TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE...AN ISOLATED ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. CURRENT FORECAST COVERS THIS
WELL WITH MAXIMUM IN POPS LATE NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEN
AIRMASS DRIES FROM THE WEST AS PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES COASTLINE
18Z-00Z...USHERING IN A PERIOD OF MORE NORMAL WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THE WEEK. BRIGHT
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM PDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
SHORT TERM...CONVECTIVE CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO INCREASE FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TODAY AS A STEADY STREAM OF MID AND HIGHER LEVEL
MOISTURE SPREADS NORTH FROM THE SIERRAS AND FROM NEVADA...BEING
STEERED BY AN UPPER LOW LOCATED WELL OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THE
CLOUDS HAVE BEEN THICK ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...AND WERE THICKEST OVER THE COAST RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUDS UPSTREAM IN
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...THE SIERRAS...AND NORTHERN NEVADA THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS CLOUD
COVER IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.
THE MODELS SHOW A DECENT JET SEGMENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS
IT MOVES THROUGH...GIVING SUPPORT TO THE IDEA OF ELEVATED NOCTURNAL
CONVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THIS IS HOW THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN TRENDED OVER THE LAST 24 TO 36 HOURS.
THE SHORT WAVE OR VORTICITY LOBE AND MOISTURE AREA WILL STILL BE OVER
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE A RATHER WARM AIR MASS REMAINING OVER OUR AREA...THE CLOUDS
HAVE SUPPRESSED TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE HUMIDITY HAS RISEN QUITE A
BIT WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. UNLESS MORE SUNBREAKS
DEVELOP THAN ARE NOW EXPECTED...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WILL HAVE TROUBLE
REACHING 90 DEGREES TODAY...AND SO WILL END THE HEAT ADVISORY.
BY MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE B.C. COAST WILL BE SAGGING SOUTH
ALONG THE COAST TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TURN THE
UPPER FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...AND LIMIT THE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER MONDAY TO OUR SOUTHERN CASCADE AREAS AND
TO ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CREST. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO SAG
SOUTH WITH MORE ENERGY IN WASHINGTON BY TUESDAY... WITH MORE WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON.
AGAIN...THE MAIN THREAT OF THUNDER FOR OUR AREA WILL BE NEAR
WILLAMETTE PASS LATER TUESDAY...AND EVEN THAT IS NOT CERTAIN.
THE MARINE LAYER WAS AGAIN SHALLOW AND CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST
THIS MORNING. THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY THICKEN SOME FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE LIFTS THROUGH...
POSSIBLY TRYING TO PUSH INTO THE COASTAL GAPS BY MONDAY MORNING...
BUT INLAND COVERAGE WILL BE SPOTTY. EXPECT BETTER INLAND COVERAGE OF
LOW CLOUDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY
NORTH...WITH THE INCREASED WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE PROXIMITY OF
THE UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTH.
WE WILL PROBABLY SEE MORE SUNSHINE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WITH A GRADUAL COOLING OF THE AIR MASS. TEMPS WILL
TEND TO BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S...COOLEST NORTH. TEMPS WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER THE NORTHWEST ONSHORE
FLOW. TOLLESON
LONG TERM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK/FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK. WITH
DECREASING ONSHORE FLOW WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK INTO
THE MID 80S BY FRIDAY. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOOKS TO APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO ITS TIMING AND STRENGTH. UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH...SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE OREGON
CASCADES. AS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PUSHES INLAND WE WILL SEE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON SOME
LINGERING INSTABILITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAVE ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE CASCADES. TEMPERATURES OVER THE
WEEKEND LOOK TO FALL BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS. /64
&&
.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE CENTRAL OREGON COAST NEAR KONP WHERE MARINE STRATUS HAS
BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR CIGS. THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY STORMS THAT
MAY DEVELOP. REGARDLESS...COULD GET SOME OUTFLOW GUSTS AROUND 25
KTS.
LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE COAST TONIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING...BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE HOW EXTENSIVE IT IS ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THE
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE FURTHER INLAND ALONG THE LOWER COLUMBIA
RIVER MONDAY MORNING...POSSIBLY REACHING KSPB. EXPECT CLEARING
AND CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TJ
&&
.MARINE...A RAPIDSCAT IMAGE EARLIER THIS EVENING SHOWED GUSTS OF
25 KT ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS BEYOND 20 NM
OUT...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THAT GOES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...BECOMING GUSTIER IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. THE SOUTHERN WATERS WILL FLIRT WITH
ADVISORY CRITERIA MON AFTERNOON...BUT HAS A BETTER CHANCE TUE
AFTERNOON. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT A TAD. THEY ARE MOSTLY WIND
DRIVEN AND WILL BECOME STEEP AND INCREASE SLIGHTLY WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS IN THE AFTERNOONS. TJ
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
WATERS FROM CAPE SHOALWATER WA TO CASCADE HEAD OR FROM 10
TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND
THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS FORT WORTH TX
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
NO CONCERNS...VFR.
LIGHT WINDS...GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS...WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. WHEN SPEEDS FALL TO NEAR 5KTS...THE DIRECTION
TYPICALLY VARIES...BUT THE WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST.
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT...SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS MAY ENTER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...BUT THESE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN VIRGA OR
SPRINKLES. NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES. OCCASIONAL
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH IN W/NW FLOW.
25
&&
.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE PACKAGE THIS EVENING AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE. INCREASED CLOUD COVER A
TAD AND ADDED A MENTION OF SPRINKLES ACROSS MOST OF OUR RED RIVER
COUNTIES MONDAY MORNING AS A WEAK S/W TROUGH MAY SLIDE IN FROM THE
NORTH AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTENING
OF THE COLUMN. WITH THE DRY AIR STILL ENTRENCHED AT THE
SURFACE HOWEVER...PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO WITH SOME INSTABILITY BEING
ADVERTISED BY BOTH THE RAP AND NAM...BUT PROFILES ARE MARGINAL FOR
EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
UPDATED ZONES AND OTHER ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.
BAIN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/
AN AXIS OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS
AND WE ARE EXPECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AGAIN JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW OF THESE
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND WE WILL SHOW
A MENTION OF SUCH ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY...AND THUS VERY LITTLE IF ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT IS FORECAST. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S
THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD MAKE FOR SOMEWHAT PLEASANT CONDITIONS
FOR EARLY AUGUST. SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY AS WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
LOWER LEVELS. SO UNFORTUNATELY THE HUMIDITY WILL BE RETURNING TO
MORE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL INTENSIFY OVER ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
THIS WEEK...BUT NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN ON ITS EASTERN
FRINGE. THIS MEANS UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WILL NOT BE TOO
PROMINENT...AND ONCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECOVERS ENOUGH THE
AIRMASS WILL ACTUALLY BE UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
LITTLE TO NO CIN. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE
CWA THROUGH THE WEEK...IT IS CERTAINLY A PATTERN THAT COULD MAKE
THE WEATHER GO FROM DRY TO - SURPRISE IT IS RAINING. AT THIS
POINT THE INGREDIENTS REQUIRED TO PRODUCE CONVECTION DO NOT APPEAR
TO COME IN PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER...BUT AGAIN THIS IS NOT A
PATTERN WHERE DRY WEATHER IS A CERTAINTY.
ON MONDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK OFF STORMS IN
THE HIGH PLAINS. FAVORABLE STEERING FLOW ALOFT EXISTS FOR A MCS TO
FORM AND TRACK INTO THE AREA...BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
JUST LOOK TOO LIMITED FOR ANY COMPLEX TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
AND AFFECT THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT BY THIS TIME
THERE IS A LACK OF FORCING AS THE PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HAVE INSERTED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY OVER
THE NORTHEAST ZONES WHERE THE TAIL END OF THE FORCING MAY INTERACT
WITH THE UNSTABLE/UNCAPPED AIRMASS. OTHERWISE HAVE SHOWN POPS OF
10 PERCENT TUESDAY AND THURSDAY NORTH OF I-20 BUT KEPT THE WORDED
FORECAST DRY. THE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE A LITTLE BY FRIDAY EVENING
AND INTO SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND STALL. WILL SHOW JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
AGAIN THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION NEXT WEEK SHOULD CONTEND WITH
JUST HOT AND DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCH UP INTO
THE 98 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE IN THE
WORK WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY OCCUR OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY MID-LATE WEEK. BY NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER
HIGH SHOULD BECOME CENTERED OVER TEXAS WHICH WILL PROMOTE HOT AND
DRY WEATHER WELL INTO MID AUGUST.
TR.92
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 78 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 0 5 5
WACO, TX 73 99 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
PARIS, TX 71 98 74 98 76 / 0 10 0 10 10
DENTON, TX 73 98 75 99 78 / 5 5 5 10 10
MCKINNEY, TX 72 99 75 98 77 / 0 5 0 10 10
DALLAS, TX 79 100 80 100 82 / 0 0 0 5 5
TERRELL, TX 73 99 75 98 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
CORSICANA, TX 74 100 76 99 77 / 0 0 0 5 5
TEMPLE, TX 72 100 74 99 75 / 0 0 0 5 5
MINERAL WELLS, TX 72 98 73 99 76 / 10 5 5 5 5
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
25/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
941 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 930 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT- WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY...AS IT MOVES
THROUGH. BUT UNTIL THEN THE FCST AREA IS LARGELY UNDER THE LEFT
FRONT EXIT RGN OF A JET WITH SUBSIDENCE OVER MOST OF FCST THIS
MORNING.
THE 12UTC RAOB SHOWS CONSIDERABLE CAPPING AT 550 HPA AND 850HPA. AT
THE SFC...A CDFNT WAS FM NW OHIO INTO THE OTTAWA VALLEY...LEAVING
THE FCST AREA IN WARM SECTOR MUCH OF TDY. CURRENTLY TD ARE AROUND
60...WITH NOT MUCH MORE MOISTURE ADVECTION LIKELY TODAY AS
UPSTREAM TD IN PA ARE IN SAME RANGE. SPC MESO ANAL HAS 150-250
J/KG OF CIN OVER FCA ATTM.
A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH
ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.
THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT. ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...SNYDER/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
649 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT
WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
...SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 648 AM EDT...AN H500 CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO BE
NEAR NRN ONTARIO AND JAMES BAY THIS MORNING. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVES
ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
FCST AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ONE SHORT-WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATER
TODAY...AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
VALLEY.
AT THE SFC...A WEAK SFC CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT LAKES
REGION IS MOVING TOWARDS SE ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE FCST AREA
WILL BE IN A WARM SECTOR TODAY WITH SFC DEWPTS RISING INTO THE
U50S TO PERHAPS M60S. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS WRN-CNTRL NY LATE THIS MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FIRE JUST AHEAD OR IN THE
PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH ZONE BTWN THE SFC TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT.
THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A THREAT WILL INCREASE FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SOME SCT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH THE SRN
DACKS/W-CNTRL MOHAWK VALLEY BTWN 2-5 PM...THEN MUCH OF ERN NY BTWN
5-8 PM INCLUDING THE CAPITAL REGION...AND THEN POTENTIALLY
SPREADING INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BTWN 8-11 PM. THE LATEST HIRESWRF
REF PRODUCT CONTINUES THIS TREND...THOUGH THE HRRR IS A LITTLE
FASTER. THE 4-KM WPC SPC WRF ACTUALLY HAS SOME CONVECTION FIRE
WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR THE LAKE GEORGE REGION AROUND 2-4
PM. WE ARE GOING TO STICK CLOSER TO THE HIRESWRF FOR THE TIMING AT
THIS POINT.
THE BEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE OVER THE FCST AREA IN THE
EARLY TO MID PM BASED ON THE GFS/NAM. THESE LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN
THE 6.5-7+C/KM RANGE. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE
INSTABILITY PROFILES BTWN THE NAM/GFS. THE NAM IS ON THE HIGHER
END WITH SBCAPES OF ROUGHLY 1000-2000 J/KG WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
SFC DEWPTS. THE GFS HAS ONLY SBCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER POCKETS. THE SFC DEWPTS ARE LOWER ON THE GFS. THE
SFC TO BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE FROM THE S/SW DURING THE DAY. THE
0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR VALUES INCREASE TO 35-45 KTS
DURING THE PM. SOME DEEP ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. MULTICELLS OR MULTICELL
LINES LOOK POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES IN THE BUFKIT SOUNDS. SOME BOWING ELEMENTS/WET MICROBURSTS
MAY OCCUR...AS INVERTED-V PROFILES ARE ALSO EVIDENT IN THE
SOUNDINGS. DAMAGING WINDS LOOK LIKE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY THREAT. ACTUALLY H850
TEMPS INCREASE TO +15C TO +19C OVER THE FCST AREA. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH THE M80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...AND
M70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE BETTER UPPER JET DYNAMICS ARRIVE TOWARDS NIGHTFALL...BUT
DECENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OCCURS OVER ERN NY PRIOR TO THEN.
PWATS DO INCREASE TO 1.25-1.50+ INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...SO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE TREND FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE ZONES/GRIDS
TO PHRASE THAT SOME STORMS MAYBE SEVERE IN THE MID PM TO LATE PM.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE DEGREE OF HOW WIDESPREAD THE SEVERE WEATHER MAY
POTENTIALLY BE WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST THE UPPER IMPULSE AND COLD
FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SINCE THE INSTABILITY MAY POSSIBLY
BE WANING. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE BETTER UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS
ARRIVE TOWARDS SUNSET...AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET
STREAK AT H250 OF 85-95 KTS WILL PASS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER
VALLEY. ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAK. SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE CONVECTION MAY
OCCUR...AND SOME OF THE MULTICELLS MAY GET INTO WRN ENGLAND. THERE
MAYBE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CLOSER TO THE BETTER DEEP
SHEAR...WHICH LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE NORTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR AT
THIS POINT. HIGH CHC AND LIKELY POPS WERE MAINTAINED AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...AS IT SAGS E/SE ACROSS THE FCST AREA. SOME HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT THE PWATS DO NOT LOOK HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS AT THIS POINT /AROUND A STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL/. THE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD START AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER.
AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL IF A WIDESPREAD OR MAJOR EVENT
WILL OCCUR FOR THE REGION....BUT WE AGREE WITH SPC AND HAVE AT
LEAST MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR SOME SEVERE IN THE FCST AREA. LOWS
MON NIGHT WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH MID AND U60S FROM THE
EASTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE GEORGE REGION
SOUTH AND EAST...AND U50S AND L60S NORTH AND WEST.
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S.
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL TO OUR
SOUTH LATE IN THE WEEK SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. THE EXACT
LOCATION IS VERY MUCH IN QUESTION AT THIS TIME. GUIDANCE IS ALSO IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES LATE IN THE WEEK LEAVING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
NORTHEAST UNDER A LONGWAVE TROUGH THOUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS ARE ON HOW THEY HANDLE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ITS IMPACTS THE POSITION OF THE
STALLED BOUNDARY AND THE STRENGTHEN OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO FORM AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GUIDANCE HAVE NOT
BEEN SHOWING ANY CONSISTENCY. AT THIS TIME...THE OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS
KEEPS THE BOUNDARY...LOW AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR SOUTH WHILE THE
ECMWF BRINGS A SOAKING RAINFALL TO THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
TO MAINLY TO AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90.
HAVE FAVORED GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER TO MAINTAIN
FORECAST CONSISTENCY AND HAVE CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-90 LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. AS FOR THE WEEKEND...HAVE MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCES
POPS SINCE THE TIMING OF ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES IN HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR
SOME STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH
CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR WITH THE CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE ADDRESSED THE THREAT OF THE STORMS WITH
A PROB30 GROUP INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AS THE CLOUD COVER DECREASES AND WINDS LIGHTEN UP.
AT KALB...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY.
AT THE OTHER TAF SITES...A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP
WHICH WILL BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY. A LIGHTER
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS AS WE HEAD INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
1035 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
CURRENT...SFC/RADAR ANLYS PLACES SURFACE LOW CENTER A LITTLE BIT
EAST OF KLCQ/LAKE CITY AND LIFTING NEWD AS OF 10AM/15UTC. A LARGE
SWATH OF CONVECTION PERSISTS TO THE SSW/SW OF THE LOW ALONG A SFC
TROUGH...AND CONTINUES TO INUNDATE THE WRN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA
FROM THE BIG BEND SWD THROUGH CAPE CORAL. RAIN CURRENTLY EXTENDS
WELL INLAND ACROSS LAKE AND ADJACENT FAR WRN ORANGE/SEMINOLE AND NW
OSCEOLA/VOLUSIA COS. A LARGE/RADIALLY STRIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CANOPY EXTENDS EVEN FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA...THINNING
SOME OVER THE TREASURE COAST/ADJACENT ATLC.
FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT IN PWATS BETWEEN THE SWATH OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE AROUND THE NORTH FLOW LOW (2.5"+) AND DRIER AIR TO THE EAST
(1.5 TO 1.6") SHOWN BY BOTH MORNING RAOBS AND TPW IMAGERY. A DECENT
DRY SLUG SHOWS UP IN THE H95-H65 LAYER AT XMR/MFL. NEAR SATURATION
TO THE N/W. RAOB AND PROFILER DATA ALSO SHOW STOUT SW-SSW SFC-3KM
LAYER AVERAGED WINDS OF 25-30KT. NOT SURPRISINGLY...ALL METAR SITES
ARE RUNNING ABOUT 10-15KT SUSTAINED ATTM.
REMAINDER OF TODAY...LOCAL MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THE SFC LOW LIFTING
OFF TO THE NE AND DRAGGING THE SLUG OF SATURATED AIR EWD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. NORMALLY ONE WOULD EXPECT
HIGH PRECIP COVERAGE REGIME...SIMILAR TO THE PAST TWO DAYS...VIA
CONVECTIVE BANDS ASCD WITH THE LOW AND/OR A PSEUDO WCSB. FY IN THE
OINTMENT OF SORTS IN THE CIRRUS CANOPY WHICH WILL LIKELY RESTRICT
SFC HEATING AND INSTABILITY OVER MOST OF THE AREA. THIS HAS "STUNG"
OUR POP/QPF FORECASTS OFTEN OVER THE LAST FEW DECADES...WHEREIN A
HIGH-PWAT AIR MASS PRODUCING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER WRN FL FAILS TO
DO MUCH FARTHER EAST. THE 12Z HRRR APPEARS TO FOLLOW THIS LINE OF
THINKING WITH RATHER PALTRY QPF MAINLY OVER THE NRN 2/3 CWA...BUT
PRETTY DECENT COVERAGE OF LGT-MDT RAIN SHOWERS.
PLAN TO KEEP THE HIGH POPS (70 NORTH/50 SOUTH) OF THE CURRENT FCST
WITH THE CAVEAT THAT AMOUNTS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...WHICH
COULD MITIGATE THE HEAVY RAIN/URBAN FLOODING THREAT OVER THE NRN/WRN
CWA (I.E. LAKE CO)...WHERE HIGHEST ANTECEDENT AMOUNTS HAVE FALLEN
THUS FAR. WILL NEED TO MAKE SOME DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS FOR
THE NRN INTERIOR BY A FEW MORE DEGREES THAN THE ALREADY LOW NOS AS
THICKER DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD DOWN READINGS THERE.
&&
.AVIATION...FROM LEE EWD THROUGH THE ISM-MCO-SFC-DAB CORRIDOR...THIS
AREAS LOOKS TO BE IN AND OUT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SHOWERS MOST OF
THE DAY THROUGH 00Z WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER FASTER MOVING +SHRA/
TS PSBL...ESPECIALLY AFTER 16Z. AN EVEN BETTER CHC FOR DIURNAL TS
EXPECT FROM TIX-MLB-SUA AS THINNER DEBRIS CLOUDS/BETTER SFC HEATING
EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...SSW-SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE A LITTLE EITHER SIDE OF 15KT...
WITH SEAS 1.5-2FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-4FT WELL OFFSHORE...15-20KT/4-5FT
IN A SMALL AREA WELL OFFSHORE VOLUSIA CO...WHERE A CAUTIONARY STMT
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THIS AFTN. CURRENT GRIDS AND CWF LOOK FINE.
&&
FORECASTS/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...MOSES
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/
TONIGHT...THE LOW LVL LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO TRACK NE ALONG THE
GA COAST WITH A TRAILING BAND OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS NRN
SECTIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWER
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ALL AREAS FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND THEN SHOULD
SEE SHOWER CHANCES CONTINUE MUCH OF THE NIGHT NORTH MAINLY NORTH OF
A KISSIMMEE TO SCOTTSMOOR LINE. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT FOR SRN AREAS.
TUE-WED...MODELS HAVE SFC LOW NEAR THE GA COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST
AND WEAKENING AS IT MERGES WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN U.S. COAST. BAND OF DEEPER MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE LOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS AREAS FROM ORLANDO NORTHWARD TUESDAY. THIS MAY
LEAD TO EARLIER DEVELOPMENT AND GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ACROSS THIS REGION FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFT. RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 50-60 PERCENT OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL TO 30-40 PERCENT TOWARD BREVARD COUNTY
AND THE TREASURE COAST.
SFC RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AS
LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. OVERALL MOISTURE DECREASES SLIGHTLY
WITH A MORE NORMAL SUMMER TIME SETUP OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE AFT ALONG THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED WITH ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR. POPS RANGE FROM 30-40 PERCENT
ALONG THE COAST TO 50 PERCENT INLAND.
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TUE WITH MID 90S POSSIBLE OVER THE
INTERIOR WED. LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
THU-SUN...A S/W TROUGH MOVES FROM THE OH/TN VALLEY TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC LATE WEEK DRIVING A WEAK SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS BACK SOUTHWARD WITH A PREDOMINANT W/SW FLOW AGAIN
EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. WHILE OFFSHORE FLOW CURRENTLY LOOKS WEAK
ENOUGH FOR EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO FORM IT WILL LIKELY BE DELAYED
EACH AFT. MOISTURE REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED AFT SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVING EASTWARD WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS POSSIBLE TOWARD
THE COAST ALONG ANY BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. POPS AROUND 30-50 PERCENT
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA SHOULD AFFECT NRN TERMINALS 16Z-
20Z...AND SRN TERMINALS 19Z-23Z AS SFC LOW MOVES NE FROM NR KCTY
THIS MORNING. BREEZY S/SW WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP. LCL MVFR CIGS/IFR
VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS TO 25-35 KTS PSBL WITH CONVECTION AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS MOVE ENE FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
AREA.
&&
.MARINE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...S/SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS ACROSS THE SRN WATERS AND 15-20 KNOTS FOR THE NRN OFFSHORE
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4-5 FT FOR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY OFFSHORE
WATERS WITH SCEC HEADLINES NEEDED. WINDS WILL BECOME SW TONIGHT WITH
WINDS TO 15 KNOTS OFFSHORE. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE INCREASING
WINDS...CHOPPY SEAS OFFSHORE AS SHORT PERIOD WIND WAVES STEEPEN AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS MOVING
TOWARD THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM MID DAY INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET.
TUE-WED...LOW PRESSURE TOWARD THE GEORGIA COAST TUE MORNING WILL
LIFT FARTHER NORTHWARD WHILE RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK OVER THE REGION
WED. WINDS OUT OF THE S/SW WILL BECOME S/SE INTO WED WITH SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FEET.
THU-FRI...RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS BACK SOUTH OF THE REGION INTO LATE WEEK
WITH WINDS PREDOMINANTLY OUT OF THE S/SW AROUND 5-10 KNOTS. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 1-3 FEET...POSSIBLY UP TO 4 FT WELL OFFSHORE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 86 73 90 75 / 70 40 60 30
MCO 87 74 91 74 / 70 40 50 30
MLB 91 74 90 75 / 60 30 40 30
VRB 91 71 91 74 / 50 30 30 20
LEE 86 76 91 76 / 70 40 60 30
SFB 86 74 91 75 / 70 40 60 30
ORL 86 75 91 76 / 70 40 50 30
FPR 91 72 91 74 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO PUSH THE ZONE OF MOST LIKELY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. VEERED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
I-64 CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE FOCUS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
IN A ZONE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ALOT OF CONVECTION EVEN IN
THAT AREA...SO ONLY USED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGHS A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT AVOID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 HEAT
INDICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
A FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BY 00Z
SHOULD RUN ALONG ROUTE 13 AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER (NW KY/SW IN).
MODELS SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA THOUGH MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG
POSSIBLE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LINGER POPS
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS ORGANIZE AND MOVE
FARTHER SSE THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AFTER 02/03Z THE MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY...AT LEAST UNTIL TOWARD DAY BREAK TUE UP
AROUND SW INDIANA. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH POPS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY A S/WV RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF WEST KY DOWN TOWARD THE MO
BOOTHEEL MAY REMAIN DRY. THEN POPS RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS MOVES ESE AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF CAUGHT ON
FASTER...AND CONTINUES TO (IT SEEMS) HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE
TRICKY NW FLOW EVENTS WITH RESPECT TO BEST MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND
QPF. THE NAM...RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
INCONSISTENT. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS AN UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV COULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WORKS AS WELL WITH MODELS PROJECTING PW`S RISING BACK TOWARD THE
2" RANGE. TIME FRAME OF INTEREST WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT EXACTLY CONSISTENT ON
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LINGERING AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY
BUT THINK THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST...MAINLY THE
MORNING. ONCE THAT WAVE DEPARTS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING YET ANOTHER WAVE DOWN THE PIKE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FLIRTING WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THAT IDEA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE TYPE POPS AND WAIT FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL WAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND RECENT RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THAT. IN
FACT...THE SFC PATTERN ON SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN EXTREMELY MESSY WITH HARDLY ANY AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THIS HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WHICH IS FAIRLY TRICKY TO RESOLVE AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THAT ACTUALLY WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH ANY POTENTIAL ENERGY RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF THAT ENERGY IS
ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. RIGHT
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT IT MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WSW WINDS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
TONIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CHANCES TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
1038 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS MADE IT ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE TN
BORDER PER LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER TODAY HAVE INTRODUCED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES FOR LATE TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN OHIO AND NOT
MOVING INTO KY UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO VERY LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN MODELED. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
INTO AT LEAST FLEMING COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO TO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD
GRIDS. HAVE UPLOADED THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BROUGHT SOME IFR OR LOWER
VIS/CIG INTO THE SME AND SJS SITES WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT SME
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING BY 1230Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO MAKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF VCTS IN THE SYM TAF AFTER 21Z. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
THE SITES...THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AS IT
DROPS TOWARD THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS JACKSON KY
710 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN MODELED. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
INTO AT LEAST FLEMING COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO TO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD
GRIDS. HAVE UPLOADED THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BROUGHT SOME IFR OR LOWER
VIS/CIG INTO THE SME AND SJS SITES WITH MVFR VIS POSSIBLE AT SME
BEFORE LIFTING AND CLEARING BY 1230Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST SITES. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER STORMS OFF TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WILL
SPREAD SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS WILL
COMBINE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TO MAKE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS A POSSIBILITY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64. FOR THIS...WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF VCTS IN THE SYM TAF AFTER 21Z. AS FOR WINDS...EXPECT THEM TO
REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL
THE SITES...THOUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON WE COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
OF 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF THE WSW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE AS IT
DROPS TOWARD THE FAR NORTH.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GREIF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1054 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015
INTERIM FORECAST GRIDDED/PRODUCT UPDATE THIS MORNING TO ADDRESS
SUBTLE CHANGES IN SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS (SKY, TEMPERATURE,
DEWPOINT, WEATHER, ETC...) FOR THE REST OF TODAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE AN EVOLVING AND SHARPENING THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT/
BOUNDARY POISED NORTH OF A CEDAR SPRINGS TO EMINENCE MISSOURI LINE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THE ZONE OF FASTER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN OVER NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE ZONE OF INSTABILITY AND
OVERTURNING OF THETA-E AIR WILL BE TIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA AND WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL CONVECTION
(THUNDERSTORMS) GIVEN THE CAPPING/DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AS YOU MOVE
FURTHER SOUTHWEST INTO MISSOURI.
CONFIDENCE IS MARGINAL ON POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IN THIS GRADIENT
ZONE, SO DID A 20-50% BLEND WITH CURRENT FORECAST WITH THE
EXPLICIT HRRR AND CONSOLIDATED MODEL BLENDS. THIS STILL KEEPS HEAT
INDEX VALUES AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN LINE WITH CURRENT
FORECAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE OVERALL WEATHER IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT TODAY AND BECOME MORE
ACTIVE AND UNSETTLED FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION THIS WEEK. WE
WILL SEE ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY TODAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 90S. HUMIDITY VALUES AND DEW POINTS ARE NOT
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH SO THE HEAT INDEX THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOUT
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN THE ACTUAL AIR TEMPERATURES...MAYBE
MIDDLE TO POSSIBLY UPPER 90S.
THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKENING COMPLEX OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
KANSAS CITY AREA WHICH IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. HIRES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS AREA TO FURTHER WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. THIS
COMPLEX COULD LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS LATER TODAY.
THE HRRR AND THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN INDICATING THIS POTENTIAL FOR
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG A FORT SCOTT TO SPRINGFIELD
TO WEST PLAINS LINE AND NORTHWARD. WITH THAT SAID...WILL LEAVE IN
A 20 PERCENT POP FOR THESE AREAS FOR A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE AS THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS THIS AREA
HIGHLIGHTED IN A MARGINAL RISK TODAY FOR THIS POTENTIAL.
A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND MAY INTERACT WITH
THIS STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE SOMEWHERE LOCATED
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI TONIGHT. THIS LLJ AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTING WILL DEVELOP ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CONVECTION
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISSOURI AREA WITH A MOVEMENT TO
THE SOUTHEAST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN GETS GOING STARTING TUESDAY. THE
FIRST OF SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL WAVES MOVES OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION UP AND OVER THE FLAT UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON TIMING AND MATERIALIZED
INSTABILITY. THE THREAT AGAIN WOULD BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASES LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OZARKS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY AS
THIS WILL BE A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM.
WPC HAS THE AREA ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF I-44 HIGHLIGHTED IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUESDAY AND THE ENTIRE AREA
FOR A SLIGHT RISK ON WEDNESDAY. IF TRAINING OF STORMS
OCCUR...THERE WILL BE A LIMITED FLASH FLOODING THREAT ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED OUT AND LINGER IN THE AREA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A STOUT LOW LEVEL JET THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT NEAR THAT FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE EASTERN OZARKS.
OVERALL AVERAGE RAINFALL FROM TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI AND TAPERING OFF
TOWARDS ARKANSAS BORDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER MID
TO END OF THE WEEK WITH THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
THE FORECAST MODELS SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRY TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS REGION BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
THE GFS HOTTER AND DRIER FOR THE OZARKS AND THE ECMWF STILL
KEEPING THE "RING OF FIRE" WEATHER PATTERN NEAR CENTRAL MISSOURI
AND THE EASTERN OZARKS. WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE...WILL MAINTAIN
INCREASING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEKEND AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS TO VEER
TO THE SW-W WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL THIS
AFTERNOON BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE
KSGF/KBBG TERMINALS.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WFO PAH/SMITH
SHORT TERM...GRIFFIN
LONG TERM...GRIFFIN
AVIATION...RUNNELS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
600 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2015
...Update to Aviation Section...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The overall weather is beginning to shift today and become more
active and unsettled for the Missouri Ozarks region this week. We
will see one more very warm day today with highs back in the lower
to middle 90s. Humidity values and dew points are not
exceptionally high so the heat index this afternoon will be about
a few degrees warmer than the actual air temperatures...maybe
middle to possibly upper 90s.
There is currently a weakening complex of convection near the
Kansas City area which is moving southeastward. HiRes models
continue to show this area to further weaken and dissipate. This
complex could leave an outflow boundary across portions of central
Missouri into the eastern Ozarks later today.
The HRRR and the 4KM WRF has been indicating this potential for
some isolated to widely scattered redevelopment of convection this
afternoon and evening...mainly along a Fort Scott to Springfield
to West Plains line and northward. With that said...will leave in
a 20 percent pop for these areas for a few afternoon
thunderstorms. There may be just enough instability for an
isolated strong storm or two with wind gusts up to 50 mph and
small hail up to nickel size as the main threat. SPC has this area
highlighted in a marginal risk today for this potential.
A low level jet will develop later tonight and may interact with
this stalled out frontal boundary that will be somewhere located
across northern and central Missouri tonight. This LLJ and
boundary interacting will develop additional scattered convection
late tonight across the central Missouri area with a movement to
the southeast.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
The more active weather pattern gets going starting Tuesday. The
first of several upper level waves moves out across the Central
Plains into the Missouri Ozarks region up and over the flat upper
level ridge that will be located across the southwestern U.S. Will
have to continue to monitor trends for a few strong to marginally
severe storms possible depending on timing and materialized
instability. The threat again would be isolated damaging wind
gusts and small hail. Thunderstorm chances increases late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday night from west to east across the Ozarks.
Showers and storms will be likely and linger into Wednesday as
this will be a slow moving system.
WPC has the area along and northwest of I-44 highlighted in a
slight risk for excessive rainfall for Tuesday and the entire area
for a slight risk on Wednesday. If training of storms
occur...there will be a limited flash flooding threat especially
for the northern half of the area.
The frontal boundary will be stalled out and linger in the area
through the middle of the week. Another strong mid level wave will
move across the area Thursday night into early Friday. There will
also be a stout low level jet Thursday night which will enhance
convection development near that front across central Missouri
into the eastern Ozarks.
Overall average rainfall from Tuesday through Friday will be
about 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts. The heaviest
rainfall appears to be across central Missouri and tapering off
towards Arkansas border. Temperatures will be slightly cooler mid
to end of the week with the added cloud cover and rain
chances...highs in the middle to upper 80s.
The forecast models show the upper level ridge will try to
build back across the southern Plains region by next weekend with
the GFS hotter and drier for the Ozarks and the ECMWF still
keeping the "ring of fire" weather pattern near Central Missouri
and the eastern Ozarks. With this forecast update...will maintain
increasing temperatures into next weekend and slight chances for
storms.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 553 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR conditions to continue through the TAF period. Winds to veer
to the SW-W with the approach of a weakening frontal boundary this
morning...then shift back to the south tonight. Isolated
convection will be possible over central/south central this
afternoon but coverage will be too limited to mention in the
KSGF/KBBG terminals.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Griffin
LONG TERM...Griffin
AVIATION...Runnels
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LAS VEGAS NV
857 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION TODAY. SOME WEAK INSTABILITY AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE REMAINS
OVER THE SIERRA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DRY. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO MOHAVE COUNTY
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.UPDATE...THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL HI-RES MODELS FORECAST LIGHT QPF
OVER NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON SO WENT AHEAD AND
INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY NORTH OF PIOCHE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT TEMPS ARE RUNNING 6-10 DEGREES WARMER IN
THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY HOWEVER, IT IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE WARMER START THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST,
INCLUDING TEMPS, LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. -SALMEN-
&&
.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH
DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. NO OPERATIONALLY
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIMITED TO
FAR NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT QUIET
WEATHER AT ALL TAF SITES WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH
TONIGHT. -SALMEN-
&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...230 AM PDT...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF A FEW CLOUDS OVER ESMERALDA AND FAR NORTHERN LINCOLN
COUNTIES SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE INDICATING
FAIRLY STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY EXPECT FOR A SMALL
AREA OF NEGATIVE LI`S OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE
IS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO SO LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THAT AREA. THE
REST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CUMULUS
DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST WILL INCREASE
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRYING US OUT
EVEN MORE AT THE LOWER LEVELS...ALTHOUGH WE MAY SEE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
AT TIMES. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A CONCERN...BUT WE
WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WITH THE
INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW WE WILL START TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM EVEN MORE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER MIXING AND HIGHER HEIGHTS. TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY COULD REACH READINGS THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN IN ALMOST A
MONTH...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ANY HEAT WARNING
CRITERIA.
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEVELOPING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF OF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
THURSDAY AND BRINGING IT INLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS COUPLED
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL ACT TO FUNNEL A PLUME OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES...PARTICULARLY MOHAVE COUNTY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OF PARTICULAR INTEREST THIS EVENING IS THE NEW
FOUND CONSISTENCY AMONG THE LAST SEVERAL OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS WITH
RESPECT TO THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST. THE 12Z AND 00Z
RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF PLACE THE HIGH FURTHER EAST OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...LEAVING FLOW ALOFT MAINLY
INFLUENCE BY THE LOW TO THE WEST. THESE RUNS ARE SUPPORTED BY THEIR
ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS EVENING...THUS RAISING CONFIDENCE.
IF THIS TREND DOES CONTINUE...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS SURGE OF
MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...WITH THE BULK OF THE
ACTION EXPECTED ON FRIDAY BEFORE DRY AIR QUICKLY SWEEPS ACROSS THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. FORECAST
MOISTURE PROFILES FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE PWAT VALUES OF 1-
1.25 INCHES IN MOHAVE COUNTY...WITH A SHARP WEST TO EAST GRADIENT
ACROSS CLARK AND SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. THOUGH THIS CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE A QUICK EVENT...THE AMOUNT
OF FORCING WITH THE SURFACE FRONT...AVAILABLE INSTABILITY...AND
SHEAR ALOFT (E.G. 35-40 KTS AT 500MB) COULD YIELD A WIDER COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY. POPS WILL BE FINE
TUNED AS THE FINER DETAILS REGARDING THE IMPORTANT FEATURES (MAINLY
THE POSITIONING OF THE HIGH) ARE RESOLVED IN THE COMING DAYS. THE
OTHER STORY WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WILL BE THE BREEZY TO GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON FRIDAY...AS THE SYSTEM SWEEPS ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN.
SATURDAY...A DRYING TREND WILL QUICKLY RESUME AS THE UPPER LOW
BEGINS TO EXIT THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RUNNING 4-5 DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...BENIGN WEATHER
WILL BE BACK AS A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME RESUMES ACROSS THE AREA.
&&
$$
GORELOW/PULLIN
FOR MORE FORECAST INFORMATION...SEE US ON OUR WEBPAGE:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS OR FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
1034 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL SLOWLY PUSH ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA TODAY WHILE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE...PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL TOUCH OFF A COUPLE MORE SHOWERS TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT...OTHERWISE IT WILL BECOME COOLER AND MORE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED IN THE BASINS OF LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
AND HAS STARTED TO SHOW A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION AS OF 1015 AM.
SHOWERS HAVE QUICKLY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT AS SIMILARLY DEPICTED
BY HRRR AND NAM. WILL BOOST POPS BACK TO LIKELY RANGE AS THE FRONT
MOVES EAST AND INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
DESPITE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER...THE
SLOW FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ENCOURAGE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TO
FURTHER DESTABILIZE. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTION LATER TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
FOR SITES EAST OF THE GENESEE VALLEY. SBCAPES FOR THESE AREAS ARE
FORECAST TO CLIMB TO AN AVERAGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...WHILE BULK
SHEAR VALUES WILL RANGE FROM 40 TO AS MUCH AS 50 KNOTS. THIS WILL
CERTAINLY SUPPORT WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH A GENERAL
UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW FAVORING BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. ONE CONCERN IS ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC
WAVES COULD PASS OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS ENOUGH TO GENERATE AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OVER THE SRN
TIER OR FINGER LAKES. THIS RISK WOULD BE QUITE LOW...BUT WORTHY OF
KEEPING IN MIND.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...WITH
THE MORE MUGGY CONDITIONS BEING FOUND OVER THE FINGER LAKES AND
EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION WHERE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
MID 80S.
THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL LIMP TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...WHILE A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO TO OUR
DOORSTEP BY DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE THIS SECOND FRONT THAT WILL
ACTUALLY USHER IN A DIFFERENT AIRMASS...AS COOLER AND LESS HUMID
AIR WILL FOLLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IN TERMS OF
PCPN...ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM THE FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
QUICKLY END DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOWERS FROM THE
APPROACHING SECONDARY FRONT COULD BLOSSOM OVER AN INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO BY DAYBREAK.
THIS IS A HINT OF THINGS TO COME.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ON TUESDAY...THE AXIS OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SETTLE
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO...ALONG WITH A
CORRESPONDING SURFACE TROUGH/SECONDARY COLD FRONT. WITH DIURNAL
HEATING OF THE COOLER AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ALOFT AND ONE
OR MORE SHORTWAVE IMPULSES SLIDING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ACROSS OUR REGION...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT OUR REGION THROUGH
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR THESE WILL MOST LIKELY
BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AS THIS REGION SHOULD BE MORE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...
WITH PRECIP CHANCES LARGELY EXHIBITING A GRADUAL DECREASE WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT. OTHERWISE...THE CONTINUED GRADUAL
BUT STEADY COOL AIR ADVECTION REGIME WILL LEAD TO 850 MB TEMPS
FALLING TO THE +9C TO +12C RANGE BY AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD IN
TURN TRANSLATE INTO DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN
MOST PLACES.
DURING TUESDAY NIGHT THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE OUR
REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. WHILE
LINGERING DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THE START OF THE
EVENING WILL PROBABLY BE FOLLOWED BY SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THESE FEATURES PASS...IN GENERAL THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR BEHIND THE SECONDARY
FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING OVER TIME. THE ONE
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO... WHERE A WESTERLY
FLOW OF PROGRESSIVELY COOLER AIR CROSSING THE WARMER LAKE WATERS
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH THE
NIGHT VIA A COMBINATION OF OROGRAPHIC AND LAKE EFFECT
PROCESSES...AS 850 MB TEMPS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN +7C AND +8C. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS FOR SLEEPING WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER/NORTH COUNTRY TO RIGHT AROUND 60
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE LAKESHORES.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS QUEBEC PROVINCE...WHILE SURFACE-BASED RIDGING
AND DRIER AIR DRAPED FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE
LATTER SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY DRY DAY FOR MOST AREAS SOUTH OF
LAKE ONTARIO...THE FAR NORTHEASTERN FINGER LAKES REGION AND NORTH
CENTRAL NEW YORK WILL BE SUBJECT TO SOME ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LAKE
AND OROGRAPHICALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS EARLY WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
MORE GENERAL DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS THE BALANCE OF THE DAY AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH RENEWED DAYTIME HEATING. ALL OF THIS SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY WIND DOWN WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE BUILDS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD... RESULTING IN
A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE TO CLOSE OUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THESE
SHOULD REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL...AND SHOULD IN FACT BOTTOM OUT
FOR THE WEEK AS OUR AIRMASS REACHES ITS COOLEST OVERALL POINT OF
THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS. 850 MB TEMPS OF ROUGHLY +7C TO +10C SHOULD
TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND THE WARMEST OVERALL TEMPS FOUND IN THE GENESEE
VALLEY/WESTERN FINGER LAKES... WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD STILL REACH
THE MID 70S. SUCH READINGS WILL THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WHEN THE COOLEST INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY COULD TICKLE THE
50 DEGREE MARK.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONGER TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS OUR REGION WILL TEND TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY
THROUGH THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS THE CORE OF THIS WEEK/S MAIN UPPER
TROUGH LIFTS OUT INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...AND MAY EVEN BRIEFLY
GO QUASI-ZONAL BEFORE A VERY MODEST MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES
OUR REGION IN TIME FOR SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INITIALLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WORK WEEK SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES BY NEXT WEEKEND. MORE SPECIFICALLY...DAYTIME
HIGHS INITIALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON THURSDAY SHOULD CLIMB
BACK INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE NIGHTTIME
LOWS INITIALLY RANGING THROUGH THE 50S SHOULD SLOWLY MODERATE INTO
THE 55-60 RANGE.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
DRAPED FROM ONTARIO PROVINCE TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AT THE START
OF THE PERIOD SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO QUEBEC...AND KEEPS THE
MAIN SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE/ANY ATTENDANT WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. AFTER THAT...THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND
SYNOPTIC- SCALE LIFT TO RESULT IN LIMITED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON SUNDAY...WHICH AT THIS DISTANT
VANTAGE POINT WILL BE COVERED WITH SOME VERY LOW CHANCE POPS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND LOWER MICHIGAN WILL MOVE EAST
AND POSE THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE HOURS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WESTERN COUNTIES BETWEEN 14 AND 17Z. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AFTER MIDDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IAG FRONTIER...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE
KJHW...KROC AND KART TAF SITES.
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE MVFR
CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GUST TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES
AT KBUF...KIAG AND KROC.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR.
FRIDAY...CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER...OTHERWISE VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL COMBINE WITH A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
ALREADY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE NEW YORK NEARSHORE WATERS...AS
WELL AS BUF HARBOR...FOR WINDS THAT COULD GUST TO 30 KNOTS. THIS
WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE ON LAKE ERIE. THE WINDS WILL DROP OFF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF LAKE ONTARIO
WHERE THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG. MARINERS THROUGHOUT
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SHOULD BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE MARINE WARNINGS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THIS EVENING
AND REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THESE
WINDS WILL FRESHEN AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ENCOURAGE
WAVES TO BUILD TO 3 TO 5 FEET...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE ERIE AND
POSSIBLY FOR THE EASTERN END OF LAKE ONTARIO.
A FALL LIKE AIRMASS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SECOND COLD FRONT COULD
SET THE STAGE FOR WATERSPOUTS ON LAKE ONTARIO TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHC FOR SPOUTS IN THE GRIDDED DATA
BASE FOR NOW. STAY TUNED.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ040-
041.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ020.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
LOZ042>045.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RSH
NEAR TERM...RSH/WCH
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...RSH
MARINE...RSH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1057 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...VFR THIS PERIOD. LLVL RH PROGS HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON CU/SC CANOPY WRAPPING SEWD AROUND CANADIAN VORTEX. THIS
WOULD KEEP THE SRN EDGE OF THIS CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF TAF SITES.
WITH INFLUX OF DRIER SURFACE TDS THE CU RULE IS NOT LOOKING
FAVORABLE FOR SRN WI THOUGH BROAD CYCLONIC H5 FLOW ALOFT AND
COLDER TEMPS ALOFT SUGGEST KEEPING AN EYE ON SRN EXTENT OF THE CU
FIELD AS IT TRANSLATES SEWD THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL WI THIS
AFTN...THOUGH RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VRY DRY COLUMN TO HOLD SWAY
VCNTY TAF SITES.
PC
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT - CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
DRIER...MUCH MORE STABLE AIR CONTINUES TO FUNNEL INTO SOUTHERN WI
EARLY THIS MRNG. SOME PATCHY MID-CLOUDS AROUND 5K FEET SHOULD THIN
AND PUSH EAST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MRNG AS WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
PUSH DIMINISHES AND BECOMES NEUTRAL. BROADSCALE TROFFING WL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION INTO TONIGHT WITH AXIS OF UPPER JET OVER
SRN WI. LIKELY TO BE SOME CU DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER
AIR SURGE SHOULD PREVENT MUCH MORE THAN FEW-SCT CU. SECOND WEAK
FRONT/DENSITY DISCONTINUITY MOVES ACROSS NRN WI TODAY AND ACROSS THE
SOUTH THIS EVE. MAY BE ENOUGH OF A COOL AIR PUSH BEHIND THIS SECOND
FRONT TO BRING A PERIOD OF BKN CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST CWA BEFORE RH
THINS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...MUCH QUIETER FOR THESE PERIODS WITH
DAYTIME TEMPS RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY AND MUCH MORE
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINING JUST TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL VALUES BOTH DAYS...EXCEPT FOR COOLER TEMPS NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY UNDER ONSHORE WINDS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EASTWARD LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TO BRING PRECIP
CHANCES BACK TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARD A
SLOWER EXIT OF THE HIGH...SO THURSDAY MAY END UP BEING DRY. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THERE FOR NOW. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
THEN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH THE WAVES PROGGED TO MOVE
THROUGH. NOT GREAT MODEL AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF WAVES...SO POPS
STILL ON THE LOWER END AND SPREAD OUT THROUGH THESE LAST 3 DAYS OF
THE FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS. COOLER TEMPS MORE LIKELY NEAR LAKE
MICHIGAN...AS ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST MOST DAYS.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...A VFR PERIOD LIES AHEAD. FEW-SCT CU LIKELY TO
DEVELOP LATER THIS MRNG BUT DRIER AIR SETTLING INTO SOUTHERN WI
SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CU AND QUICKLY RAISE THE CLOUD BASE TO VFR
LEVELS. NORTHWEST BREEZES TO PICK UP THIS MRNG BUT GUSTS WL REMAIN
MOSTLY LESS THAN 20 KTS.
MARINE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MIXING EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON TO CAUSE A FEW GUSTS TO REACH 20-22 KTS. WL HOLD OFF ON
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DUE TO MOST GUSTS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLD. HIGHER ELEVATION OF SGNW3 WIND EQUIPMENT MAY REACH 25KTS
A FEW HOURS. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EARLY
EVENING.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...MBK
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DDV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
209 PM PDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DECREASING MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ISOLATED THIS
EVENING, WANING TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 TUESDAY.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN ON FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES
THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
AROUND AVERAGE THIS WEEK.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
DRY AIR IS WORKING INTO THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE IS STILL AROUND, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
HAS DROPPED DOWN TO AROUND 0.5-0.6". SOME ISOLATED CUMULUS CLOUDS
HAVE DEVELOPED NORTH OF SUSANVILLE AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 50 IN
WESTERN NEVADA. COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS THE HRRR IS SUGGESTING, BUT IT WILL BE
PRETTY ISOLATED. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH
LITTLE RAINFALL. SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND JET MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN CA LATE TUESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY AID IN KICKING OFF SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF SUSANVILLE. ANY STORMS THAT
FORM WILL BE ISOLATED AND FAST MOVING WITH LITTLE RAINFALL.
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH MOST
AREAS SEEING TYPICAL AUGUST WEATHER WITH HOT, DRY CONDITIONS AND
BREEZY AFTERNOONS. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
NEAR THE OREGON BORDER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCES. HOON
.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE AN UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE
EASTERN PACIFIC THURSDAY, THEN TRACKING INLAND ACROSS CA/NV FRIDAY-
SATURDAY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE FASTER GFS
AND THE SLOWER ECMWF, BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS THE MAIN IMPACTS
FOR THE REGION WOULD OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
THURSDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS AND TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASES, WITH DEFORMATION ZONE SETTING UP ACROSS NERN
CA-NWRN NV AHEAD OF THE MAIN LOW. WITH LOW LEVELS RATHER DRY AND
FAST STEERING FLOW, THIS COULD BE A SET UP FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING, DUE TO POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND LIMITED RAINFALL.
BY FRIDAY, FURTHER INCREASE IN INSTABILITY AND FORCING IS LIKELY AS
THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SIERRA, WHICH COULD SET THE STAGE FOR
STRONG AND POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW A
FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE SCENARIO AT THIS TIME, BUT DUE TO THE INHERENT
NATURE OF CLOSED LOWS VARYING IN LOCATION/TRACK WE WILL MAKE ONLY
INCREMENTAL INCREASES IN POPS AT THIS TIME, WITH THE BEST CHANCES
GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 50 FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTH ON
SATURDAY, A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP NORTH OF
SUSANVILLE-LOVELOCK. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ANOTHER
TROUGH SETTING UP ALONG THE WEST COAST SUNDAY-MONDAY KEEPS THE
REGION IN DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW, LEADING TO TYPICAL LATE DAY ZEPHYR-
TYPE BREEZES AND HOLDING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL,
GENERALLY AROUND 90 DEGREES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MAIN TERMINALS THRU TUESDAY WITH TYPICAL
SW-W BREEZES WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT MAINLY BTWN 21Z-04Z. ISOLD TSTMS
POSSIBLE THRU 04Z THIS EVE EAST OF BRIDGEPORT-LOVELOCK AND NEAR THE
OREGON BORDER. ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS TUESDAY MAINLY NORTH
OF I-80, BUT LESS THAN 10% CHANCE OF CELLS IMPACTING KRNO OR KTRK.
MJD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK TO MORE OF A TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEK IN THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN AND THE SIERRA. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
HIGH TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW BUT COVERAGE LIKELY
LIMITED (LAL 2) DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY. NORMAL AFTERNOON ZEPHYR
BREEZES ALONG THE SIERRA FRONT AND WESTERN NEVADA EACH DAY BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENTS EXPECTED THIS WEEK. PLUME OF MUCH DRIER AIR
IN OUR SIMULATIONS FOR TONIGHT SO HAVE LOWERED HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
ESPECIALLY IN THE MID-SLOPES AND RIDGES. KEEPING AN EYE ON THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY FOR A POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH FREQUENT
LIGHTNING (LAL 3+), ASSOCIATED WITH VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE AND A
FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALOFT SHOWN IN OUR LONG RANGE SIMULATIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO INCREASING BUT STILL LOW-MEDIUM. CS
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
240 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
AN UPR TROF WL CONTINUE WORKING ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD OVR CO THRU
THIS EVENING...AND WL CONTINUE PRODUCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING
THIS TIME OVR NRN AND ERN CO. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DRIER AIR
WORKING ITS WAY EASTWARD BEHIND THIS UPR TROF. OVR THE FORECAST
AREA...MUCH OF THE MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER PCPN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPR TROF WL LIKELY BE WORKING ITS WAY NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT THE HRRR IS
SHOWING ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION MOVING EASTWARD OFF THE ERN
MTNS AFTER ABOUT 01Z.
WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND MARGINAL SHEAR...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF ONE OR TWO STORMS BECOMING SVR OR MARGINALLY SVR THRU EARLY THIS
EVENING OVR THE ERN PLAINS. BY MIDNIGHT MUCH OF THE CONVECTION
SHOULD HAVE ENDED...ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE
OVR THE FAR SERN PLAINS A BIT LONGER.
AN UPR RIDGE WL THEN BE BUILDING OVR THE AREA THRU TUE. ALTHOUGH
THERE WL BE DRIER AIR OVR THE AREA ON TUE...THERE WL STILL BE ENOUGH
MSTR AROUND FOR SOME ISOLD MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
TSTMS...MAINLY OVR AND NR THE HYR TRRN.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
...MONSOON RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD STRONGLY FROM THE SOUTH FOR THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD...AS THE H5 CENTER SHIFTS OVER CENTRAL NM. A WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS THROUGH WY WED NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE IMPACT WILL BE
NORTH OF OUR CWA. THIS DISTURBANCE COULD SPARK SOME ISOLD TO CT
STORMS OVER THE MTS LATE WED...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY...AND
THE WEAK ZONAL FLOW WILL BRING THE UPPER 90S BACK TO MOST OF SE
CO...ALONG WITH 80S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THURSDAY LOOKS EVEN
MORE HOT AND DRY...WITH TEMPS POSSIBLY AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR THE
HOT SPOTS ALONG THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE RIDGE LATE IN THE DAY...BUT TS COVERAGE SHOULD
BE ISOLD AT BEST.
FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS BACK EWD
INTO TX...AND SW FLOW ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER CO. THE MONSOONAL PLUME
WILL BEGIN WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO WRN CO AS A TROUGH MOVES ASHORE
OVER NRN CA...AND THEN TRANSLATES NEWD INTO THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION
ON SATURDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD STORMS OVER THE MTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT
AS THE DEPARTING TROUGH STRENGTHENS MONSOONAL FLOW INTO SW CO. THE
ERN ZONES MAY NOT SEE AS MUCH WIDESPREAD PRECIP COVERAGE...BUT STILL
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST ISOLD-SCT AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
BEYOND SATURDAY...THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST...BRINGING OUR AREA BACK TO A DRY AND HOT SUMMER PATTERN.
BUT HOW FAST THIS WILL OCCUR IS DEBATABLE. THE GFS RETURNS US TO THIS
DRY AND HOT PATTERN AS SOON AS SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF
TIL LATER NEXT WEEK. THE ENSEMBLES MAKE IT CLEAR THAT THERE WILL BE
A TROUGH SOMEWHERE OVER THE PACNW...AND A RIDGE SOMEWHERE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...BUT SUBTLE SHIFTS IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL
DETERMINE DAILY POPS AND TEMPS. SO...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE THE
BEST BET AT THIS POINT...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AND TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS PERIOD. ROSE
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT THE TAF
SITES AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY
RAIN.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...28
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DENVER/BOULDER CO
1042 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
NO BIG CHANGES PLANNED TO THE GOING FORECAST. WEAK QG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING OVER MOST OF THE CWA WITH THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER SEEING THE LAST OF IT LATE TONIGHT. AT THE
PRESENT TIME THERE IS MUCH MORE CLOUDINESS THAN PRECIPITATION SO
SOLAR HEATING IS NOT DOING MUCH JUST YET. HOWEVER...SATELLITE DATA
IS SHOWING A FEW MORE BREAKS DEVELOPING RECENTLY SO THIS SHOULD
HELP GET CONVECTION ROLLING AS THE DAY WEARS ON. WITH MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND RESPECTABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER NUMBERS STILL
EXPECTING MOSTLY RAIN FROM THE STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE
PRETTY DECENT.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 310 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
WEATHER TREND FOR TODAY IS AN INCREASE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ALONG WITH A BIT COOLER TEMPERATURES. WATER VAPOR SHOWING
UPPER LOW AND TROF ROTATING NORTH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS UTAH EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE MAIN LOW WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD INTO FAR
WESTERN WYOMING LATER TODAY WHILE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROF WILL
SLIDE ACROSS COLORADO LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK
TO MODERATE QG ASCENT WITH THIS TROF AND WILL AID TO SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...PW VALUES WHICH ARE CURRENTLY JUST
UNDER AN INCH WILL INCREASE TO OVER AN INCH BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE CLOUD COVER TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WHILE INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED AS WELL. HI RES MODELS ARE DIFFERING ON STORM STRENGTH
TODAY AS RAP REALLY DRIES OUT THE LOW LEVELS ON THE PLAINS WHICH
APPEAR OVERDONE. THE NAM INDICATES SURFACE BASED CAPES OF
700-1500J/KG ON THE PLAINS. SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LOW BUT COULD
SEE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL
BE HEAVY RAIN WITH STORMS GIVEN HIGH PW VALUES.
TROF AXIS SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO LATER TONIGHT WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS SOME
MODEST SUBSIDENCE THAT DEVELOPS BEHIND THE WAVE LATE IN THE NIGHT
WHILE CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING DECENT CROSS BARRIER FLOW OF 30 TO
50KT AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL. EVEN A MOUNTAIN TOP STABLE LAYER
SPELLS SOME GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING ON THE DIVIDE AND HIGHER EAST
SLOPES. COULD SEE SOME GUSTS FROM 30 TO 45 MPH LATER TNT OVER THE
FRONT RANGE. CLEARING SKIES ELSEWHERE SO COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 144 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
ON TUE...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD QUICKLY DIMINISH FROM WEST-TO-EAST
ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY AND NEARBY HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS AS DRIER...STABLE AIR SWEEPS IN ON W/NWLY WINDS BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE
CWA WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO FEEL THE AFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND PERHAPS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HRS IN THE
FORM OF CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE MORNING...AND
SCATTERED T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. ITS POSSIBLE AN UPRIGHT LINE OF
T-STORMS CAPABLE OF STG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL COULD RACE SEWRD
ACROSS LOGAN...SEDGWICK AND PHILLIPS COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HRS AS THE 700-500MB TROUGH AXIS SWINGS BY. AS
THE SAYING GOES...BEWARE OF NORTHWEST FLOW. NEXT...THE PAST FEW DAYS
MODELS INDICATED COOLER TEMPS ON TUE. NOT SO ANYMORE. LATEST MOS
TEMP GUIDANCE NOW INDICATES A 2-3 DEG C WARMUP OVER READINGS ON MON.
GUSTY DOWNSLOPE FLOW OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND GREATER SUNSHINE TWO
BIG REASONS FOR THE REVERSAL AND NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS. CROSS SECTIONS
INDICATE 35-50KTS CROSS-BARRIER FLOW TUE MORNING. THIS COULD
RESULT IN MID/UPPER EAST SLOPE WIND GUSTS OF 35-55 MPH. SHOULD SEE
WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
INCREASED MIXING.
BY WED...STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/SRN ROCKY
MOUNTAIN REGION WILL CONTINUE TO WARM AND DRY THE AIRMASS OVER
COLORADO. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LATE DAY HIGH BASED GUSTY T-
STORMS OVER AND NEAR THE FRONT RANGE. OTHERWISE EXPECT A DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND LIGHTER WINDS.
WED NIGHT INTO THU...MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SHIFTING EAST OF CO. THE SHIFT IS IN RESPONSE TO A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WHICH MODELS SHOW RACING E-SEWRD OVER THE NRN ROCKY
MTN REGION DURING THE THU/THU NIGHT TIME PERIOD. THE RESULTING ZONAL
FLOW OVER NRN CO WILL FURTHER LOWER DEWPT/PW VALUES AND LIKELY
INHIBIT CONVECTION WITH STRENGTHENING OF THE MID-LEVEL CAP. HOWEVER
BY EVENING COULD SEE A WEAK COLD FRONT RACE SEWRD ACROSS NERN CO.
ITS POSSIBLE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ALONG
THIS FRONTAL BNDRY COULD GENERATE A STRAY T-STORM OR TWO...BUT THE
CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING APPEARS LOW DUE TO LOW BNDRY LAYER
MOISTURE.
BY FRI...W-NWLY MEAN LAYER FLOW TURNS SWLY WITH AMPLIFICATION OF THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN GREAT PLAINS. THIS OPENS THE DOOR TO A LONG
FETCH OF SUBTROPICAL/MONSOONAL MOISTURE WHICH MODELS SHOW EXTENDING
AS FAR SOUTH AS THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. MODELS ALSO SHOW A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVELING NEWRD WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME UP OVER
THE 4-CORNERS REGION FRI EVENING AND OVER N-CNTRL/NERN CO ON SAT.
SHOULD THIS PATTERN MATERIALIZE AS INDICATED...COULD SEE SHOWER/T-
STORM CHANCES INCREASING FROM SW-TO-NE ACRS THE FCST AREA FRI
NIGHT AND SAT AS WELL AS A RETURN TO TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE
DUE TO A STEADY INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MDT MON AUG 3 2015
CURRENT TRENDS IN THE TAFS SEEM REASONABLE AT THIS TIME WITH
INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. PREDICTED GUSTY SOUTHEASTERLIES ALSO SEEM OK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER
BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSING THE FRONT RANGE URBAN AREAS AROUND MID
EVENING SO MAY CONSIDERING KEEPING A THUNDERSTORM THREAT LONGER IN
THE NEW ISSUANCE.
&&
.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ET
SHORT TERM...ENTREKIN
LONG TERM...BAKER
AVIATION...ET
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
537 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.
AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.
THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
517 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.
AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTAIN SOME HAIL GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
AN UPPER LEVEL COULD GENERATE AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE LOOK FOR A REDUCTION IN HEAT AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY
ON WEDNESDAY. WITH A COLD POOL ALOFT AN ADDITIONAL SHOWER IS
REMOTELY POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY BUT OTHERWISE IT IS DRY.
THE RH VALUES INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH
VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.
SOUTH WIND WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BECOME
WEST TO SOUTHWEST 5 TO 15 MPH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON WEDNESDAY.
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN WILL BE FRIDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
509 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND MOVE TO
THE COAST BY MORNING. IT MAY TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
LINGER OVER QUEBEC THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING COOLER AIR
INTO OUR REGION...AND TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY NORTH OF I90
AND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...
AS OF 500 PM EDT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OUR REGION
THANKS TO A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. ONE CELL WHICH POPPED UP AT THE
AIRPORT AROUND 200 PM LOOKS TO BE THE RESULT OF SOUTHERN MOHAWK
CONVERGENCE. THE OTHERS...WERE TIED INTO THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
AND A SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE REGION. SOME OF THE CELLS BECAME
STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE PRODUCING SOME MARGINAL WIND AND HAIL
DAMAGE. PLEASE REFER TO OUR LATEST LOCAL STORM REPORTS FOR ALL THE
LATEST STORM REPORTS.
MU CAPE VALUES WERE IN THE VCNTY OF 1000-1500 J/KG...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE ARND 6.5C. THE LATEST HRRR DOES NOT SHOW ANY REAL
ORGANIZED LINES (AS THERE MIGHT NOT BE QUITE ENOUGH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR). HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL SCATTERED CELLS COULD
BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH ABOUT SUNDOWN.
MEANWHILE...THE REAL STRONG COLD FRONT WAS STILL LAGGING BEHIND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE WITH A FEW MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE WILL CARRY HIGH CHANCES/LIKELY POPS INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR PARTIAL SUNSHINE THROUGH SUNDOWN AND
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
OVERNIGHT ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. IT WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS EVENTUALLY
GETTING DOWN TO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR WRN NEW ENGLAND BY
DAYBREAK. THE SFC DEWPT BOUNDARY WILL STILL BE PROGRESSING EAST
ACROSS ERN NY. THE NAM IS ADVERTISING ALOT OF INSTABILITY FOR TUE
WITH A DEEPLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE GFS HAS LESS AGAIN...BUT
THERE IS A SMALL AREA OF HIGH INSTABILITY FROM THE THE MASS PIKE
SOUTH AND EAST INTO NW CT. SPC DOES HAVE LITCHFIELD CTY CLIPPED BY
THE MARGINAL RISK. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 6.5C/KM
WITH ANOTHER SHORT-WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL /NO ENHANCED WORDING YET/...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. LOW- LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING
DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE PM. DOWNSLOPING EFFECTS OFF THE
ERN CATSKILLS/ERN DACKS MAY ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO GET INTO THE MID
AND U80S IN THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION. EXPECT M70S TO
L80S IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN
GREENS WHERE SOME U60S TO L70S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE COLD ADVECTION
REGIME...AS H850 TEMPS LOWER TO +10C TO +16C FROM NW TO SE OVER
THE FCST AREA BY THE LATE PM. A SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET.
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING THE SCT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY. THE ISOLD-SCT
SHOWERS MAY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER THE SRN DACKS. LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH SOME U40S TO L50S
OVER THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE QUITE
COMFORTABLE.
WED-WED NIGHT...THE FCST AREA WILL STILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER S-CNTRL QUEBEC. IN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW ANOTHER PIECE OF SHORT-WAVE ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND. THE BEST CHC OF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS DUE TO THE
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CAPITAL REGION. H500 TEMPS WILL BE AROUND -15C TO -18C FROM ALY
NORTH AND WEST. THE H500 HEIGHTS ARE ABOUT 2-3 STD DEVS BELOW
NORMAL BASED ON THE LATEST GEFS FOR WED. H850 TEMPS WILL BE 1-2
STD DEVS BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON WED WILL BE IN THE M60S TO L70S
OVER THE MTNS...AND MID AND U70S IN THE VALLEYS...WITH A FEW 80F
READINGS NEAR KPOU. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR COOL NIGHT FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUG...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE U40S TO M50S OVER
THE FCST AREA.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RETURN TO MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THIS
PERIOD...AND IS EXPECTED TO LAST. HOWEVER...WEAK DISTURBANCES
INTERMINGLED WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MEAN RATHER SMALL CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS ON SOME DAYS...PARTICULARLY THE MORE SOUTHERN ZONES...
WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO A QUASI-STATIONARY MID-ATLANTIC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. IF ANYTHING...THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE DRIEST CONDITIONS...GOOD NEWS FOR
WEEKENDERS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S WILL BE EXTREMELY COMMON...WITH LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION.
THE NORMAL HIGHS AND LOWS AT ALBANY...RESPECTIVELY...ARE IN THE
LOWER 80S AND LOWER 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE IMPACTED KALB...BUT SO FAR NOT THE OTHER
TAFS. THERE IS STILL CHANCE ANY OF THE TAFS COULD BE IMPACTED BY A
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AROUND 00Z. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING.
LATER OVERNIGHT...AS THE SKY IS PARTIALLY CLEAR...WIND LIGHT AND
DEWPOINTS STILL AROUND 60 OR A LITTLE HIGHER...MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...MVFR CONDS WITH IFR FOG AT
KGFL.
AT THE TAF SITES SOUTHERLY WINDS BE AROUND 10KTS INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
TUE NIGHT-THU: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU NIGHT-FRI: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
ARRIVE FOR WEDNESDAY.
THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 40 TO 60 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO
35 TO 55 PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH
TODAY...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH TONIGHT. THE WINDS
WILL BE FORM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY WITH
THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION. THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS PWATS RISE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ALSO
SOME SHARP WITHIN BANK RISES WOULD BE EXPECTED ON STREAMS...CREEKS
AND SOME SMALL RIVERS.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
TUESDAY ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS APPROACHES AND PASSES OVER THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY
RANGE FROM A TENTH TO A THIRD OF AN INCH WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
A TREND TOWARDS DRIER WEATHER WILL OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...AND
CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY MORNING.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...HWJIV/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...HWJIV/WASULA
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...SNYDER/HWJIV
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
157 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.
TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THIS EVE AND DRIFT OUT TO SEA ON TUE.
MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF TSTMS THRU THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS EVE WITH A FRONTAL SYS.
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING UNCERTAIN TNGT SO VCTS USED IN THE
TAFS. AT KSWF...BETTER CHC FOR DEVELOPMENT AFT 22Z SO MAINTAINED A
TEMPO.
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR VIS AT TIMES IN BR MAINLY KGON/KHPN/KSWF
AFT 4-6Z.
A GENERAL SW FLOW THRU THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE BACKED
CLOSER TO THE S THIS AFTN AND EVE ALONG THE COASTS DUE TO THE SEA
BREEZE ENHANCED FLOW.
...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE
00Z. STRONGER WINDS MAY LINGER TIL AROUND 2Z.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR TSTMS BEFORE 00Z. CHC
FOR MVFR VIS AFT 4-6Z.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED THRU 21Z.
.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z TUE THROUGH SAT...
.REST OF TUE...SLGT CHC FOR TSTMS MAINLY CSTL TERMINALS. BECOMING
VFR OVERNIGHT.SW FLOW BECOMING NW OVERNIGHT.
.WED-THU...VFR. GENERALLY W FLOW.
.FRI...MVFR OR LOWER IN RAIN. WINDS BECOMING NE.
.SAT...MVFR OR LOWER POSSIBLE IN RAIN. NE WINDS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...JMC
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
117 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY IMPACT THE AREA FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE NOW EAST OF THE
HUDSON BAY IN QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD...WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT MOVING TOWARDS THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED
OVERALL...WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS LATE IN THE DAY.
A FEW HI-RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHERN NJ. SIDED WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AFTERNOON FORECAST OWING
TO SEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WARMING ALOFT
INDICATED ON RAP SOUNDINGS...ALSO EVIDENCED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
AS OF 17Z.
TEMPS ARE TOWARDS THE WARMER GFS MOS NUMBERS.
SEA BREEZE ENHANCED WITH THE AMBROSE JET EFFECT AND GUSTS TO NEAR
30 MPH LATE THIS AFTN OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND. AS SUCH...THERE IS
A HIGH RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE OCEAN
BEACHES TODAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES. A RIP CURRENT STATEMENT
IS IN EFFECT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT SAGS INTO THE REGION BY TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN
BECOMES DIFFUSE. RATHER UNCERTAIN ON DETAILS FOR PCPN IN THIS
PERIOD. HAVE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF SCT CONVECTION INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER
90S.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
INTO EASTERN CANADA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON WEDNESDAY WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S. SOME
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES IN
THE AFTERNOON...BUT FEEL AT THIS TIME THE AIR MASS WILL BE TOO DRY
FOR ANY SHOWERS. HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY FOR WEDNESDAY.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON A PIECE OF ENERGY
INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY THEN MOVE ALONG THE BASE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
MAY IMPACT THE REGION. THE 18Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY GFS ARE FLATTER
WITH THE WAVE AND THUS KEEP LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE AREA COMPARED
TO ITS PREVIOUS 12Z SUNDAY RUN...WHILE THE 00Z MONDAY ECMWF IS
CONSISTENT WITH ITS 12Z RUN FROM SUNDAY INDICATING A MORE AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE. THIS MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY AND
WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSER TO THE REGION. THE 00Z MONDAY CMC IS
THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND BRINGS THE LOW OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. THE 00Z
GFS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER AS THE 00Z GEFS ARE FURTHER NORTH WITH
THE LOW AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC LIFT TO WORK WITH...AS THE REGION LOOKS TO LIE
IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET OVER NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD BE A POSSIBILITY IF
THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND FURTHER NORTH SOLUTIONS COME TO FRUITION.
HAVE CONTINUED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST OF CHANCE POPS DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME FRAME.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE OFFSHORE LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO
THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY...AND THEN
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
S/SW FLOW WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. STRONG
SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AT COASTAL TERMINALS. GUSTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 20 KT RANGE EXPECTED...STRONGEST AT KJFK.
THERE IS A LOW PROB FOR SE SEABREEZE TO WORK INTO KEWR/KTEB.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT
KSWF. ELSEWHERE...PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...OUTSIDE OF THE NYC METRO
TERMINALS.
NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...
DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)
KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.
KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.
KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.
THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.
KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: LOW CHANCE OF SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT. WINDS MAY
BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FOR BRIEF PERIOD AFTER 20Z.
KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTS MAY BE OCCASIONAL THIS AFTERNOON.
KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: HIGH CONFIDENCE OF GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH THE SEABREEZE. TIMING OF GUSTS MAY BE OFF BY +/- HOUR.
.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z TUE THROUGH FRI...
.TUE...CHANCE OF TSTMS. COLD FROPA WITH S WINDS SHIFTING TO W.
.WED...VFR. W FLOW.
.THU-FRI...MVFR OR LOWER CONDS POSSIBLE IN MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS LATE TODAY...MOVING CLOSE TO
THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASE MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIGHTENING WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT.
OCEAN SEAS BUILD DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THESE WINDS. SCA
STARTING AT 4 PM LOCAL AND THROUGH TONIGHT. OCCASIONAL 25 KT
GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR NY HARBOR...WESTERN SOUTH SHORE BAYS AND
WESTERN LI SOUND LATE MONDAY AFT INTO MONDAY EVENING.
OCEAN SEAS WILL BE SUBSIDING TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT 5 FT SEAS MAY
LINGER ON THE EASTERN OCEAN UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES OVER THE WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WITH SUB SCA CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY PASS OVER THE WATERS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK. OCCASIONAL SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL PRODUCT LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD LEAD TO MINOR POOR DRAINAGE NUISANCE FLOODING.
A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. HOWEVER...A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH THIS
POTENTIAL EVENT.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ075-
080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DS/TONGUE
NEAR TERM...MD/TONGUE
SHORT TERM...TONGUE
LONG TERM...JP/DS
AVIATION...BC/PW
MARINE...DS/TONGUE
HYDROLOGY...DS/TONGUE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
404 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT, EVENTUALLY TRACKING THROUGH OUR REGION ON
TUESDAY. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG
IT. THE FINAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO PASS OFFSHORE
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
EASTERN CANADA SHOULD THEN BUILD SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
NOT A BAD AUGUST AFTERNOON WHERE HEAT INDEX TEMPS ARE PRETTY MUCH
THE SAME AS THE AMBIENT TEMPS. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
ZONES WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. NORTH OF THE DELMARVA, DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
TONIGHT`S LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE MID AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THIS
IS WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.
A PREFRONTAL TROF OR REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS BEEN WORKING
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. IT`S NOT RUNNING INTO
A HIGHLY BUOYANT OR MOIST ATMOSPHERE, SO IT`S HAVING A TOUGH TIME
GETTING GOING. THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT WILL PASS LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW.
WE`LL SLOWLY BUMP UP POPS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT KEEP THE EXTREME FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES DRY.
HIGHEST POPS (50%) WILL BE PLACED ACROSS THE POCONOS. 30% POPS HAVE
PAINTED ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN.
THE GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WE`RE EXPERIENCING THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
FRONT GETS HUNG UP ALONG THE COAST TOMORROW. WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE (VS. TODAY) POOLING NEAR THE FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE
AREA, THE THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE MORE
NUMEROUS TOMORROW ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE`S A SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE NAM AND GFS WITH THE NAM MUCH FURTHER WEST
WITH PRECIP. I`VE CHOSEN TO GO CLOSER TO THE GFS WITH SUPPORT
FROM STAT GUIDANCE.
TEMPS TOMORROW, OVERALL, SHOULD BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY`S HIGH. FORECASTING 90 FOR PHILLY.
WINDS WILL BE A BIT MORE WESTERLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH SIMILAR
GUSTS VS. TODAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
IN A MODEL INITIALIZATION FLIP FROM THE WEEKEND, THE WRF/NAM
INITIALIZED THE 500MB PATTERN BETTER THAN THE GFS OR ECMWF IN THE
WESTERN CONUS, WHILE IN ERN NOAM THE GFS LOOKED BETTER. THE GFS
LOOKED CLOSER AT 850 MB AND 925MB. DP/DTING THE INITIALIZATION
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE RIDGING IN MONTANA AND IDAHO IS
STRONGER AND DOWN THE ROAD THIS IS LEADING TO A MORE BIFURCATED
SOLUTION TO HOW THE ENERGY ROUNDS THIS RIDGE, THUS THERE IS NO
DECREASE IN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SOUNDING RUN. THE GFS WAS NOT
USED BECAUSE OF ITS WEAKER WESTERN CONUS INITIALIZATION AND POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY. GEFS MEAN WITH THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FARTHER SOUTH AND THEN A FASTER EXIT ON SATURDAY. OUR FORECAST IS
CLOSEST TO A ECMWF/CAN GGEM/MF-ARPEGE BLEND. IT SHOULD BE NOTED
THAT THE UKMET HAS TRENDED SOUTHWARD WITH A MUCH WEAKER LOW WHILE
THE NOGAPS AND JMA HAVE GONE BACK TO NOT HAVING ANY PCPN REACH OUR
CWA UNTIL SATURDAY.
SO THE ACTIVE MIDDLE STRETCH OF THE LONG TERM CONTINUES WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE NORMAL. THE POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR A
SOAKING RAIN CENTERED AROUND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTIES AS TO THE IMPACT WITHIN OUR CWA. LAST NIGHT`S NAEFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CONTINUE TO SHOW AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SFC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY AUGUST WITH A FIVE YEAR RETURN PERIOD AND
SD OF BETWEEN 2 AND 3 AS IT CROSSES THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.
THE LACK OF THE RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY REMAINS. THE WAY THE MODELS
RESOLVE CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE LOWS MOVES EAST IS MAINLY
WHY. THE MORE ROBUST "FEEDBACK" LENDS TO STRONGER AND FARTHER
NORTH LOWS, WHILE MODELS WITH LESS MCV BULLSEYES HAVE WEAKER AND
MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTIONS. IT REMAINS HARD TO SEPARATE THE TRUE
MCS(S) FROM PROLONGED FEEDBACK HANGOVERS. LIKELY THIS WILL BE THE
CASE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE CONVECTION THAT DAY IS THE CAUSE OF
MOST OF THE MODELING HEARTBURN.
TUESDAY NIGHT, THE MODEL TIMING HAS SLOWED IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT
OFFSHORE AND WE MAINTAIN LOW POPS SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN HOW DRIER AIR IS MOVING, THE MORE ROBUST STORMS
SHOULD BE DONE BY THIS TIME PERIOD. WE ARE EITHER AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MINS GIVEN THE SLOWER MODELING TREND.
WEDNESDAY, REMAINS POPLESS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE GFS IS STANDING ALONE WITH STGR CAA AND OVERALL STRONGER SFC
WINDS. IT ALSO STANDS ALONE WITH CHANNELIZED VORT MAX PCPN GETTING
INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. GIVEN THE DP/DT TREND, GOING
FASTER DOES NOT SEEM TO HAVE MUCH CORROBORATION. WE ARE CLOSER TO
A NON-GFS SOLUTION AND NAM MOS FOR HIGH TEMPS. ALSO NO POPS. BUT,
CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE REACHED NORTH AND SOME POPCORN TO MAYBE
EVEN CIG CU LIKELY. WHILE IT WILL BE DRIER, NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION OF A COUPLE OF MORE 90S IN THE EASTERN/COASTAL PART OF
OUR CWA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, DRY, AS THIS IS ONE FORECAST PERIOD ALL OF THE
MODELS AGREE UPON. WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA, COMFORTABLE
STAT GUIDANCE MINS LOOK REASONABLE.
THURSDAY, POPS WERE MOVED BACK APPROXIMATELY 12 HOURS. TOO LATE
IN ITS FORECAST CYCLE TO HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE WRF/NAM TIMING, BUT
MANY OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY MEASURABLE AT ALL THURSDAY DAY
BASED ON THE MORE ROUNDABOUT APPROACH FOR THE SHORT WAVES.
BECAUSE OF THE DRIER TRENDING, WE WENT ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPS.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THERE UNFORTUNATELY REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, BUT THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
SET-UP STILL POINTS TO HEAVY RAIN, EVEN IF IT DOES NOT NECESSARILY
OCCUR OR AFFECT OUR CWA THE MOST. THE HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TIED TO
CONVECTION AND THUS HOW UNSTABLE ALOFT IT BECOMES WITHIN OUR CWA
WILL DETERMINE THE FINAL OUTCOME. HIGHEST POPS ARE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY WITH THUNDER EMPHASIZED MORE FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. COME FRIDAY NIGHT THE PREDICTED INSTABILITY (REALLY LACK
THEREOF) ALOFT DOES NOT SUBSTANTIATE THE ECMWF`S PCPN/QPF
SOLUTION AND WAS NOT USED. THIS DOES NOT MEAN HEAVIER RAIN COULD NOT
HAPPEN EARLIER. MAX TEMPS MAY VERY WELL BE OVERSTATED ON FRIDAY IF
THIS TIMING HOLDS.
BECAUSE OF TIMING DISCREPANCIES WE KEPT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY. AFTER ABOVE, THE END OF THE LONG TERM
APPEARS QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES ITS WAY SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA
AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE OFFSHORE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE
ISN`T AT ALL TIME HIGH DUE TO HIGH RES SOLUTIONS. THE HRRR CONTINUES
TO DEVELOP A SOLID PRE-FRONTAL LINE OUT IN CENTRAL PA AND MOVES SAID
LINE INTO THE REGION. SAT PIX NOR RADAR SUPPORTS THIS. SO AS OF NOW,
THE TAFS ARE PRECIP FREE. THE EXCEPTION IS A PROB 30 FOR KPHL (30
HOUR TAF) FOR LATE TOMORROW AS THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS WILL GUST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO 20 KT FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED
SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY EARLY SOUTHEASTERN TERMINALS.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS DURING
SHWRS/TSTORMS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. WHILE CONFIDENCE
OF OCCURRENCE IS INCREASING, TIMING CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW.
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN AS
SHOWER FREQUENCY DIMINISHES.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HEADLINES IN PLACE TONIGHT FOR
THE OCEAN WATERS AND EXTEND THEM THROUGH TOMORROW. GUSTS TO 25 KTS
CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WITH SEAS IN THE 4 TO 6 FT RANGE. WAVEWATCH
NUMBERS WERE HIGHER AND WERE TRIMMED.
IN DELAWARE BAY, WE`LL TOP THE WIND GUSTS OUT AT 20 KTS (SUB
SMALL CRAFT).
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR SEAS ON THE
OCEAN MIGHT LAST INTO THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO EXTEND.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS;
HOWEVER, A STALLED FRONT AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT
COULD ENHANCE SEAS AND/OR WINDS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAKING SCA
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO RETURN.
THIS IS BASED ON TIMING OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CLOSE, CONFIDENCE
AT THIS JUNCTURE IS LESS THAN AVERAGE.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE NEW JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELAWARE BEACHES THROUGH
TONIGHT. THIS MODERATE RISK MIGHT EXTEND INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/KLINE
NEAR TERM...KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...KRUZDLO
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
MARINE...GIGI/KLINE/KRUZDLO
RIP CURRENTS...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
451 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
20Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED NORTHERN
STREAM FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. DEEP TROUGHING IS MOVING ASHORE
ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COASTLINE...FOLLOWED DOWNSTREAM BY
SHARP RIDGING OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...AND THEN FINALLY
FOLLOWED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGHING DIVING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RIDGE ACROSS THE CANADIAN
ROCKIES EXTENDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST STATES
AND DOWN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN MEXICO. OUR LOCAL AREA
RESIDES WITHIN A LESS DEFINED MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
THIS RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND ANOTHER UPPER RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST
OF THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THERE IS OBVIOUSLY SOME WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE MID-LEVELS STILL LEFT OVER THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE LATENT HEAT RELEASE DURING THE PAST 24
HOURS...BUT SHOULD SEE THIS PV ANOMALY WEAKEN AND DRIFT
SOUTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT AWAY FROM THE AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE FLORIDA IS SLOWLY
SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST TOWARD THE GA/CAROLINA COASTLINE. TO OUR
SOUTH...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS ALIGNED OVER THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...AND IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE FIRST SIGNS OF SHIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD TOWARD AN EVENTUAL POSITION OVER THE CENTRAL
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY MIDWEEK.
ON RADAR...THINGS CERTAINLY ARE LOOKING MORE FAVORABLE THAN THEY
DID JUST A FEW HOURS AGO. THE LARGE EXPANSE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN THAT SOAKED MUCH OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND TRENDED WELL OFFSHORE
WITH THE DEPARTING UPPER VORTICITY CENTER. WE ARE SEEING SOME
RENEWED SHOWER ACTIVITY UP TOWARD WESTERN CITRUS/NORTHERN SUMTER
COUNTY AS OF 4 PM...AND THIS APPEARS TO BE THE RESULT OF LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG
THE 300-305K SURFACES WITHIN THE SHEAR AXIS TRAILING SOUTHWARD
FROM THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW CENTER. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW SHOWER ACTIVITY EARLY IN THE EVENING FOR
MULTIPLE RUNS...BUT IS FURTHER WEST TOWARD THE BIG BEND COAST AND
ALSO MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH TOTALS THAN THE TRENDS WE ARE
CURRENTLY SEEING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL UPDATE RAIN
CHANCES FOR LEVY/CITRUS SHOULD THE DEVELOPMENT THE HRRR IS SHOWING
JUST BE SOMEWHAT DELAYED. EITHER WAY...THE WORST SEEMS TO BE OVER
FOR MOST PLACES...AND OTHER THAN A FEW SCT SHOWERS THE REST OF THE
EVENING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS GOING TO BE QUITE LIMITED.
HOPEFULLY WE CAN LET THE DRYING OUT PROCESS BEGUN.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AS MENTIONED ABOVE...WE ARE LOOSING THE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND HOPEFULLY THIS WILL END THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS POINT GOING FORWARD. FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE...WE DO NOT HAVE LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...SCT SHOWERS ARE STILL
GOING TO BE A POSSIBILITY AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT...
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD TO THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE NOTHING
LIKE WE HAVE SEEN...BUT IT WILL BE WORTH KEEPING THE FLOOD WATCH
UP...JUST IN CASE. NAM/RAP BOTH SHOW A DECENT SWATH OF LOW LEVEL
SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST RELATED TO THE
INTERACTION OF THE DEPARTING GRADIENT OF THE LOW AND THE
REBOUNDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAK CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SCT OF SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE INTO THE FLOOD
WATCH ZONES...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OVERALL
COVERAGE...AT THIS TIME...IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP
POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. MOST RELIABLE PARAMETERIZED MODELS ARE
HAVING THEIR CONVECTIVE SCHEMES TRIGGERED WITHIN THIS ZONE
OVERNIGHT...AND THE EXPLICIT MODEL QPF LINES UP AS WELL.
THIS SHEAR AXIS COLLAPSES TUESDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE
OVER OUR AREA. BY THE AFTERNOON...WE WILL ACTUALLY BE LOOKING AT
AN ALMOST NORMAL PATTERN FOR EARLY AUGUST...WITH THE RIDGE OVER
THE STATE...NO SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES TO SPEAK OF...AN A FEEBLE SEA-
BREEZE MOVING ASHORE FROM BOTH COASTS OF THE PENINSULA. MUCH LIKE
A TYPICAL AUGUST DAY...THE SEA-BREEZES WILL SUPPORT A SCATTERING
OF DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INLAND FROM THE COAST DURING THE
EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND...IS THAT SOIL
MOISTURES ARE VERY HIGH. THE SUN WORKING IT EVAPORATIVE INFLUENCES
ON THESE SOILS WILL ADD TO THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND OVERALL
SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY
BE EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE (AND IS NOT
FORECAST TO BE) WIDESPREAD...BUT ANY LOCATION THAT SEES A STORM
DROP A QUICK INCH OR TWO COULD LOCALLY RENEW FLOODING CONCERNS.
ALL THIS IS YET ANOTHER REASON TO GIVE THE FLOOD WATCH ONE MORE
DAY...AND HOPEFULLY THINGS WILL CONTINUE TO RETURN MORE TOWARD
NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING THIS HAZARD POTENTIAL TO BE
EXPIRED. HANG IN THERE...OTHER THAN THE RIVERS (WHICH STILL HAVE A
AT LEAST A FEW DAYS OF IMPACTS)...THINGS LOOK AS THROUGH THEY
WILL BE IMPROVING.
&&
.LONG TERM...
.MID/LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT - MONDAY)...
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL FINALLY GET A BREAK FROM THE UNUSUAL WET
PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING OVER THE EAST COAST WEAKENS AND
SHIFTS NORTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THAT HAS
BEEN SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF FLORIDA TO REGAIN STRENGTH AND SHIFT
NORTHWARD PUTTING US BACK IN A MORE SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN BY
MID WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE DIURNAL SEA BREEZE SCENARIO TO
SET UP ACROSS THE PENINSULA WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BUT MODELS APPEAR TO HOLD MOST OF THE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY NUDGING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHERN FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE
ATLANTIC...HIGH PRESSURE REGAINS ITS POSITION BY THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK RIDGING OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. SO ALL OF THAT BEING SAID...THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE PAST 2 WEEKS...BUT
THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY.
WITH DECREASING CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
BACK UP TO AROUND SEASONAL NORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...
GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AROUND KPIE/KTPA...AND
THEN A SCATTERING OF MORE TYPICAL DIURNAL STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF CIG/VIS RESTRICTION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY OF THESE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH FLORIDA WILL MOVE
SLOWLY EAST NORTHEAST TONIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH EXERCISE CAUTION CONDITIONS ON THE TAMPA
BAY WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN
BY MID-WEEK.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE VERY WET PATTERN SEEN FOR MANY DAYS WILL TRANSITION BACK TO A
MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
MEANS MORE DIURNAL AND SCATTERED NATURE SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
OPPOSED TO THE LONG DURATION RAINFALL RECENTLY SEEN. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HOWEVER STAY VERY HIGH PREVENTING RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FROM APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS. NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...
AND LIKELY THROUGH THE EXTENT OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...ACTIVE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE TAMPA BAY
AREA WITH 3 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF
STREETS AND URBAN AREAS WITH NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES ACROSS WESTERN
PASCO...NORTHERN PINELLAS...AND NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES.
THE GROUND REMAINS SATURATED DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST WEEK...SO
FLOOD WATERS WILL BE VERY SLOW TO RECEDE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
TODAYS HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT RISES ON SOME AREA
RIVERS...WITH THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS AGAIN BEING HARD HIT WITH
MAJOR FLOODING EXPECTED. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AROUND 26.1 FEET.
THE ALAFIA RIVER AT LITHIA IS ALSO EXPECTED TO JUST REACH THE FLOOD
STAGE OF 13 FEET ON TUESDAY. MINOR RIVER FLOODING WILL ALSO
CONTINUE ON THE LITTLE MANATEE AND MYAKKA RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS
CREEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 89 78 90 / 30 30 10 40
FMY 75 92 76 93 / 20 40 40 40
GIF 73 91 76 94 / 20 40 40 50
SRQ 77 88 76 90 / 20 30 10 20
BKV 75 89 72 92 / 40 40 30 50
SPG 77 89 79 90 / 30 30 10 30
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEVY-
COASTAL PASCO-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND HERNANDO-INLAND
HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEVY-INLAND PASCO-PINELLAS.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL
OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO
TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM-WATERS FROM TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 TO 60 NM.
&&
$$
SYNOPIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM...WYNN
MARINE...OGLESBY/MROCZKA
DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING/LAMARRE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
631 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF
THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE MESO-ANALYSIS STILL INDICATED A STRONG PRECIPITABLE WATER
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM 1.3 INCHES IN THE UPSTATE TO
OVER 2 INCHES ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
CONVERGENCE WILL EXTEND FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TO THE
COASTAL PLAINS. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE HIGHEST POPS THERE.
HIGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND NOCTURNAL COOLING SHOULD RESULT IN
AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG LATE. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 70S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL BRIEFLY SET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES OR LESS
TUESDAY...SLIGHTLY HIGHER WEDNESDAY. WEAK NORTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW ALONG WITH SUNSHINE AND THE DRIER AIR WILL YIELD HOT
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT AGAIN IN THE MID 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER PATTERN FEATURES A ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE REGION WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. ISOLATED
DIURNAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE BUT DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION WITH THE LACK OF ANY UPPER ENERGY MOVING INTO THE AREA
TO ENHANCE ANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT MAY INITIATE STORMS.
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY AND
MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS. MOISTURE WILL BE
ON THE INCREASE AGAIN AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF. HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS WILL BE
ON FRIDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION ACTING
ON THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE. GFS INDICATING UPPER
RIDGE ATTEMPTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S MID-WEEK...LOWERING INTO THE
LOWER 90S END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIGHT WIND
SHOULD RESULT IN AREAS OF LOWS CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT. LEANED TOWARD THE NAM MOS AND HRRR PLUS CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT UNDER SIMILAR CONDITIONS FOR THE TIMING OF DEVELOPING IFR
CONDITIONS. HEATING AND MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 14Z. STRONG HEATING MAY HELP SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS BUT WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE THE CHANCE WAS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG AND AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
548 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ENDED UP ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BEEN WAITING ON DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT DOWN THERE...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN STUBBORN. DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY SEE 100 TO 105
HEAT INDICES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL NOT ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR IT AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY...SO WE MAY NOT
SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IN A WET PERIOD IS RATHER HIGH AS A MID /UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...SO CANNOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES...AND
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...SO A SOMEWHAT
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY.
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS RATHER
MURKY...BUT IN GENERAL FEEL THAT DRIER IS BETTER. THERE WILL BE A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...BUT THE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS
QUITE WEAK...SO IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAMP UP A BIT FROM THE WEST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MORE THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GENERAL THEME
IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
PAIR OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN/ NOW RESERVES
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH MEANS THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THURSDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD. HOWEVER...THEY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE IN SE MISSOURI.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
HIGH...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS QPF AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20S OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE UNREALISTIC
AND IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH MOST PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY...IN LINE WITH THE GFS CAMP.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL BRING BACK SMALL POPS...STARTING IN SOUTHWEST
IL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IS ALSO FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 548 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
DIURNAL CU WILL DISPERSE SOON WITH LOSS OF FUEL. SOME MID OR HIGH
SCATTERED BLOW OVER CLOUD MAY IMPACT MAINLY KCGI...OTHERWISE MOCLEAR
NITE WITH MAYBE TEMPORARY MVFR PATCHES OF FOG AT FOG PRONE KCGI.
DIURNAL CU AGAIN TMRW WITH SIMILAR BLOW OVER HIGH CLOUDS POSSIBLE.
POPS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT TO MENTION.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ENDED UP ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES OVER SOUTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BEEN WAITING ON DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT A BIT DOWN THERE...BUT
THEY HAVE BEEN STUBBORN. DEPENDING ON CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER THE SOUTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA MAY SEE 100 TO 105
HEAT INDICES AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT
EXIST...WILL NOT ISSUE A STATEMENT FOR IT AT THIS TIME.
FINALLY SEEING SOME CU DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE MID-SECTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THE HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO BE VERY DRY...SO WE MAY NOT
SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT AT ALL.
CONFIDENCE IN A WET PERIOD IS RATHER HIGH AS A MID /UPPER-LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO/THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY IN THE
TIMING AND TRACK THROUGH THE REGION...SO CANNOT GET TOO CARRIED
AWAY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE OVER 2 INCHES...AND
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL NOT BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...SO A SOMEWHAT
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL IS A REAL POSSIBILITY. A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY EVENTUALLY BE NECESSARY.
FROM TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST IS RATHER
MURKY...BUT IN GENERAL FEEL THAT DRIER IS BETTER. THERE WILL BE A
VERY WEAK BOUNDARY IN THE REGION...BUT THE CONVERGENCE ALONG IT IS
QUITE WEAK...SO IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION. WILL HAVE SOME SMALL CHANCE POPS THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...AND THEN WILL RAMP UP A BIT FROM THE WEST HEADING INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF MODEL INCONSISTENCY IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...MORE THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE GENERAL THEME
IS THAT SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BY THE
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS FAR AS THE DAILY DETAILS...
THERE IS POOR AGREEMENT ON THE SPECIFICS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. A
PAIR OF 500 MB SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE OUR REGION IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW PATTERN. THE 12Z GFS /SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS MEAN/ NOW RESERVES
THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT FOR FRIDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS GUIDANCE IN BRINGING THE
STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. THE FORECAST WILL
LEAN TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF...WHICH MEANS THE HIGHEST POPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THURSDAY. SINCE BOTH MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY...WILL TWEAK POPS UPWARD. HOWEVER...THEY WILL ONLY
RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE NORTHEAST TO CHANCE IN SE MISSOURI.
EXTENSIVE CLOUDS AND PRECIP SHOULD TEMPER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S BOTH
DAYS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS HIGH WILL BRING A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW OF
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF THE
HIGH...THE 12Z ECMWF HAS QPF AND VERY WARM 850 MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER
20S OVER OUR REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS LOOKS A LITTLE UNREALISTIC
AND IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH MOST PREVIOUS RUNS. WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST MAINLY DRY...IN LINE WITH THE GFS CAMP.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BUILD A LITTLE EAST AND NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS. AT THE
SAME TIME...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHERLY ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH. WILL BRING BACK SMALL POPS...STARTING IN SOUTHWEST
IL ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS IS ALSO FORECAST.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSRA WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE A CONCERN. RIGHT NOW WILL JUST INSERT
PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT KCGI AND KEEP THE OTHER SITES VFR. THERE
ARE HINTS OF A TANGIBLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL
FILTER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON KY
119 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1038 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF THE AREA THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED. THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THIS CONVECTION HAS MADE IT ALMOST ALL THE WAY TO THE TN
BORDER PER LATEST RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. NOT SURE
HOW MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THIS BOUNDARY WILL GO. SINCE THIS BOUNDARY
MAY SERVE TO FOCUS CONVECTION LATER TODAY HAVE INTRODUCED A 20
PERCENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TN BORDER
COUNTIES FOR LATE TODAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD SERVE AS THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM BOTH ARE
TRENDING TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOONS CONVECTION DEVELOPING LATER THAN
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE...WITH DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN OHIO AND NOT
MOVING INTO KY UNTIL THIS EVENING. WITH THIS IN MIND HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE INTRODUCTION OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO VERY LATE IN THE
DAY IN THE NORTH.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA IS HOLDING
TOGETHER A BIT BETTER THAN MODELED. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRUSH
INTO AT LEAST FLEMING COUNTY. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT
THIS AND ALSO TO MATCH UP THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS FOR T/TD
GRIDS. HAVE UPLOADED THESE TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS...ALONG
WITH AN UPDATED ZFP ISSUANCE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
07Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL HOLDING ON OVER
SOUTHERN KENTUCKY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE NORTHWEST.
SKIES ARE CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN A GOOD
NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. ACCORDINGLY...SHELTERED VALLEYS ARE
RUNNING NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE RIDGES WITH LOWER 60S
FOUND IN THE HOLLOWS COMPARED TO THE LOW 70S ON THE HILL TOPS.
DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 6OS ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. NO SIGN OF ANY FOG
YET...BUT DO ANTICIPATE SHALLOW AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IN THE RIVER
VALLEYS TOWARD DAWN AGAIN THIS MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AS THEY SHOW THE
SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE BROAD AND UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW CURRENTLY
OVER EAST CENTRAL CANADA. THIS MOVEMENT WILL SERVE TO TIGHTEN UP
THE MID LEVEL GRADIENT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. EAST KENTUCKY WILL BE IN
NORTHWEST FLOW WITH RIPPLES OF MINOR WAVES PASSING THROUGH INTO
MID WEEK. OF NOTE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE WAVE WILL MOVE EAST FROM
THE PLAINS AND TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEIGHT RISES FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE MODEL SPREAD
IS A BIT LARGER WITH THIS KEY FEATURE AS THE NAM LAGS BEHIND THE
ECMWF AND GFS IN BRINGING THE ENERGY WITH THIS WAVE INTO KENTUCKY
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE FAVORED THE HRRR AND NAM12 EARLY ON IN
THE FORECAST GIVEN THEIR HIGHER RESOLUTION...BEFORE GOING WITH
MORE OF A BLEND LATER AS UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DETAILS INCREASE.
SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ONGOING STORMS TO THE NORTH...OUT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FADING AS THEY CLOSE
IN ON THE OHIO RIVER. THIS WILL PROBABLY SEND A BOUNDARY OR TWO
INTO NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY LATER THIS MORNING AND IT COULD BECOME
A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL TAKE PLACE IN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG CONVECTION GIVEN AFTERNOON CAPES FORECAST TO
BE NEAR 3K J/KG...SOME MID LEVEL DRYING...AND STEEP LAPSE RATES.
THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
DEVELOPMENT...TOO...BUT THE SHEAR IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE. COMBINED
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE MAIN FRONT...THOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITH STRONG
TO SEVERE ONES POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE
IN THE DAY. WITH A RELATIVELY LOW WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AND DCAPES
APPROACHING 1500 J/KG LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT. SPC HAS PLACED A LARGE CHUNK OF THE NORTHERN
PARTS OF OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS CONCERN. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE WX STORY...VIA A WEB HEADLINE...AND IN THE
HWO. THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. THE
CLOUDS AND BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER
AND MORE UNIFORM MONDAY NIGHT. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ON
TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT OVER THE AREA AND THE APPROACH OF THE MID
LEVEL WAVE FROM THE WEST.
AGAIN STARTED WITH THE SHORTBLEND MODEL FOR THE T/TD/WIND GRIDS
THROUGH THE DAY FOLLOWED BY THE SUPERBLEND FOR TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...TONIGHT WITH RESPECT TO RIDGE AND
VALLEY DIFFERENCES. AS FOR POPS...WENT A BIT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
THROUGH THE PERIOD GIVEN THE FRONT HANGING OVER THE AREA...DESPITE
IT BEING RATHER MOISTURE STARVED.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A WESTERN CONUS RIDGE
AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM. THIS BRINGS
ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE REGION WITH A SERIES OFF SHORTWAVES RIDING
OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. DESPITE SUBTLE SHIFTS
IN THE WESTERN RIDGE WITH AN ACTIVE JET STREAM INTO THE WEST
COAST...THE GFS AND EURO SEEM TO AGREE ON THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
THOUGH BESIDES THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FEATURES...TIMING WILL
STILL POSE QUITE A PROBLEM.
DETAILS CLOSER TO THE SURFACE WILL FEATURE A LINGERING SURFACE
BOUNDARY BEING QUASI/STATIONARY DRAPED ACROSS KY AND THE LOWER OH
VALLEY AS SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST FROM THE FRONT
RANGE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OH VALLEY.
HEADING FURTHER INTO THE PERIOD...A GOOD DEAL OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
IN THE FORM OF A STRONG JET STREAK ENTERS THE WEST COAST OVER
CENTRAL CA AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES WEAKENING THE RIDGE A BIT. THIS
PUSHES A EVEN BETTER WELL DEFINED WAVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO
THE OH VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT THIS
FEATURE FOR QUITE A FEW RUNS THAT SEEM TO BRING A WELL DEFINED
SYSTEM THROUGH KY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SUPER
BLEND AGREES WITH THIS REASONING AS WELL...ADVERTISING WELL ABOVE
LIKELY POPS THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. THIS
PERIOD WILL PROVE TO BE THE MOST INTERESTING AND ACTIVE PORTION OF
THE EXTENDED.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE GFS AND EURO DIVERGE IN SOLUTIONS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FLATTENING IN
THE GFS BUT REMAINING A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE EURO. THUS...A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE TN VALLEY AND ALONG THE APPALACHIANS AND A
CONTINUED ACTIVE BUT SUBTLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL KEEP SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH THE LAST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED BUT
LACKING CONFIDENCE...WOULD BE MORE INCLINED TO STAY WITH AND JUST
BELOW THE SOLUTION OF THE SUPER BLEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF LAKE ERIE TO NORTHERN
INDIANA WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS FRONT
SHOULD TRIGGER SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER OHIO LATE TODAY...AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE. AS SUCH WILL CARRY
VCTS IN THE SYM TAF FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF THIS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY MINIMAL AND WILL NOT
EVEN WARRANT VCTS IN TAFS SOUTH OF SYM. A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...BUT ANY CEILINGS SHOULD BE VFR...AND ANY
CLOUD WILL MINIMIZE FOG DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY FOG TO BE SIMILAR
OR LESS THAN LAST NIGHT...WITH MOST TAF SITES REMAINING VFR. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE SME WHERE FOG SHOULD RESULT IN IFR CONDITIONS
FOR A TIME AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...SBH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PADUCAH KY
1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE LOOKING DRIER AND DRIER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAT INDEX AT KPAH IS 99 AT NOON...BUT
FIGURE THAT DEWPOINTS WILL MIX OUT A BIT EVEN ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL OF WIDESPREAD 100+
HEAT INDICES MAINLY IN WEST KENTUCKY...AND MAY HAVE TO ISSUE A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR IT.
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1049 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
UPDATED THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO PUSH THE ZONE OF MOST LIKELY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT A BIT FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE AREA. VEERED
WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE ADVECTING DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
I-64 CORRIDOR...WHICH SHOULD PUSH THE FOCUS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH...MORE
IN A ZONE FROM CARBONDALE ILLINOIS TO MADISONVILLE KENTUCKY. THE
LATEST HRRR RUNS ARE NOT DEVELOPING ALOT OF CONVECTION EVEN IN
THAT AREA...SO ONLY USED ISOLATED WORDING IN THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING A BIT AHEAD OF THE FORECAST...SO
INCREASED HIGHS A BIT IN SOME LOCATIONS. MORE AREAS ACROSS THE
SOUTH THAT AVOID CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO SEE MID 90S
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 100 HEAT
INDICES.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
A FRONT WILL SETTLE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND BY 00Z
SHOULD RUN ALONG ROUTE 13 AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER (NW KY/SW IN).
MODELS SHOW HIGH INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA THOUGH MOISTURE IS
MARGINAL. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION. A FEW STRONG
POSSIBLE ISOLD SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILL LINGER POPS
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY IF CLUSTERS ORGANIZE AND MOVE
FARTHER SSE THAN EXPECTED. HOWEVER AFTER 02/03Z THE MODELS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY ACTIVITY...AT LEAST UNTIL TOWARD DAY BREAK TUE UP
AROUND SW INDIANA. WILL FOLLOW SUIT WITH POPS OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY A S/WV RIDGE BUILDS BRIEFLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIMITED
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE DAY. MUCH OF WEST KY DOWN TOWARD THE MO
BOOTHEEL MAY REMAIN DRY. THEN POPS RAMP UP TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT AS S/WV ENERGY FROM THE PLAINS MOVES ESE AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN...THE ECMWF CAUGHT ON
FASTER...AND CONTINUES TO (IT SEEMS) HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THESE
TRICKY NW FLOW EVENTS WITH RESPECT TO BEST MOISTURE PLACEMENT AND
QPF. THE NAM...RAPID UPDATE MODELS AND GFS HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
INCONSISTENT. TEMPS WILL BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE WORTH WATCHING...AS AN UPTICK IN WIND FIELDS
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED S/WV COULD BE JUXTAPOSED WITH DECENT
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA...EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN ONCE AGAIN IN THE
WORKS AS WELL WITH MODELS PROJECTING PW`S RISING BACK TOWARD THE
2" RANGE. TIME FRAME OF INTEREST WILL BE FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A DEPARTING
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. MODELS ARE STILL NOT EXACTLY CONSISTENT ON
WHERE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE LINGERING AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY
BUT THINK THE HIGHEST POPS SHOULD BE IN THE EAST...MAINLY THE
MORNING. ONCE THAT WAVE DEPARTS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN THE
ACTION FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE TRYING TO BRING YET ANOTHER WAVE DOWN THE PIKE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE 12Z MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION COULD BE FLIRTING WITH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY 12Z FRIDAY...BUT THE 00Z ECMWF HAS BACKED OFF
THAT IDEA. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE TYPE POPS AND WAIT FOR
FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF ANY
POTENTIAL WAVES MIGRATING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ALOFT.
YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS INDICATED AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND RECENT RUNS DO NOT DEPICT THAT. IN
FACT...THE SFC PATTERN ON SEVERAL MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
HAS BEEN EXTREMELY MESSY WITH HARDLY ANY AGREEMENT ON WHAT WILL
ACTUALLY EVOLVE. THIS HAS A LOT TO DO WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN ALOFT WHICH IS FAIRLY TRICKY TO RESOLVE AT TIMES.
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AND
THAT ACTUALLY WILL RESULT IN RISING TEMPERATURES INSTEAD OF FALLING
TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE ADVERTISED YESTERDAY. MODELS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME DEALING WITH ANY POTENTIAL ENERGY RIDING THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH...AND HOW MUCH...IF ANY...OF THAT ENERGY IS
ABLE TO REACH OUR AREA AND PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION. RIGHT
NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...KEEPING IN
MIND THAT IT MAY CHANGE WITH FUTURE SHIFTS.
&&
.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
LATEST INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSRA WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SO WILL KEEP THE TAFS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SO FOG
DEVELOPMENT COULD BE A CONCERN. RIGHT NOW WILL JUST INSERT
PREVAILING MVFR FOG AT KCGI AND KEEP THE OTHER SITES VFR. THERE
ARE HINTS OF A TANGIBLE WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR A FEW
HOURS THIS EVENING AT KEVV AND KOWB. A WEAK SURFACE HIGH WILL
FILTER OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DRS
AVIATION...DRS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
347 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
12Z RAOBS/LATEST WV IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW CYC NW FLOW ARND
CLOSED LO OVER FAR NRN ONTARIO DOMINATING THE UPR LKS. UPSTREAM 12Z
RAOBS AT INL/YPL SHOW SOME FAIRLY DEEP MSTR...WITH H85-7 DEWPT
DEPRESSIONS NO MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES C. WITH LARGER SCALE CYC FLOW
AND H85 CAA /12Z H85 TEMPS WERE 11C AT GRB/APX BUT ONLY 3C AT
YPL/...BKN LO CLDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE CWA. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW
SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR AS WELL WITH SOME DIURNAL HEATING
AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV NOTED ON WV IMAGERY PASSING OVER NE
LK SUP/ACCOMPANYING DPVA AND DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC...BUT INTENSITY/
COVERAGE OF THESE HAS BEEN LIMITED BY SOME CAPPING AOA H7 AS SHOWN
ON THE 12Z YPL RAOB AND RUC ANALYSIS SNDGS FOR SITES IN THE CWA. THE
CAA AND CLD COVER HAVE KEPT TEMPS BLO NORMAL.
MAIN FCST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM FOCUS ON CLD TRENDS AND POPS.
TNGT...EXPECT ANY ONGOING SHOWERS EARLY TO TEND TO DIMINISH IN
THE EVNG WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING/ARRIVAL OF DNVA/LARGER SCALE
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF PASSING SHRTWV TO THE NE. SOME OF THE
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER SHRTWV NOW SLIDING SEWD THRU MANITOBA WL
ARRIVE DURING THE NGT AND RESULT IN MORE ISOLD SHOWERS. LINGERING
CYC FLOW AND CONTINUED MOIST...CYC NW H85 FLOW WL MAINTAIN A GOOD
DEAL OF CLD COVER THAT WL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMP FALL. BUT TEMPS
SHOULD STILL FALL INTO THE UPR 40S AT MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS AS H85
TEMPS DIP TO ARND 6C.
TUE...ALTHOUGH MOIST CYC H85 FLOW WL PERSIST...MODELS SHOW ARRIVAL
OF DNVA/FAIRLY SHARP DEEP LYR QVECTOR DVGC/SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF
PASSING SHRTWV DOMINATING...WITH SFC HI PRES BLDG INTO THE AREA
DURING THE AFTN. SO ANY MRNG SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME
DESPITE THE DIURNAL HEATING THAT WOULD NORMALLY ENHANCE PCPN CHCS.
EXPECT ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY WITH LINGERING LO CLDS AND H85
TEMPS IN THE 6-8C RANGE THAT WL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS INTO THE LO 70S
OVER THE SCENTRAL...WITH MAINLY 60S CLOSER TO LK SUP.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATUES AND A FEW SMALL CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE
THE RULE ACROSS UPPER MI INTO THIS WEEKEND.
TUESDAY NIGHT...A MID-LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER JAMES BAY WILL BEGIN A
SLOW PUSH EASTWARD TUESDAY NIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT OCCURS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS CROSSES UPPER MI
SHOULD END BY TUESDAY EVENING UNDER INCREASED DRYING AND DEEP
SUBSIDENCE. THE SFC GRADIENT WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS A SFC
RIDGE BUILDS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA TO THE WESTERN CWA. WHILE
PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 0.75 INCHES WILL BE FAR FROM IDEAL FOR
SUBSTANTIAL COOLING...INLAND LOCATIONS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE 40S
GIVEN THE OVERALL COOL AIR MASS IN PLACE. UPPER 30S FOR THE TYPICAL
COLDEST SPOTS WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE INTERIOR WEST.
HAVE STEERED CLEAR OF THE COLDEST GUIDANCE FOR NOW AS ANOTHER WEAK
MID-LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA OVERNIGHT MAY BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE MORNING LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY SUNNY...BUT YET
ANOTHER SUBLTE TROUGH LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. A SHALLOW LAYER OF MOISTURE BETWEEN 800 AND 850 HPA
COMBINED WITH WEAK FORCING FROM THE TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
LIGHT SHOWERS. IF THIS OCCURS...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A WEAK LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE...AND A LAKE MI/GREEN BAY LAKE BREEZE THAT
SHOULD PUSH WELL INLAND ON LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS. HAVE OPTED TO ADD A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL CWA AWAY FROM THE
GREAT LAKES AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ERODING A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF AN
UPPER JET WILL INDUCE MULTIPLE AREAS OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY WED. LATEST GUIDANCE IS
SPLIT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE
CONVECTION...WITH THE ECMWF BEING MOST AGRESSIVE. IT APPEARS ANY
NORTHERN CONVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO TRACK WELL EAST ACROSS THE CWA
AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS NORTHERN WI
AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES COULD
OCCUR AS THE TROUGH AXIS PASSES THURSDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MUCH TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY MENTION AT THIS TIME.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
BECOMES MORE COMPLICATED BEGINNING LATE THIS WEEK. SIMPLY PUT...THE
LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN LITTLE AGREEMENT. IN FACT...THE 12Z RUN OF
THE GFS SHOWS A STACKED SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER THE CWA AT 12Z
SAT...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH LAGGING BEGIND A SFC
TROUGH JUST EAST OF UPPER MI. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN GEM CANNOT
CHOSE WHICH OF THE OTHER TWO TO FOLLOW...WITH IT MORE IN LINE WITH
THE ECMWF THU INTO FRI...AND THE GFS SAT INTO SUN. MOST OF THIS IS A
RESULT OF THE ECWMF LEAVING BEHIND THE SW EXTENT OF THURSDAYS TROUGH
IN RESPONSE TO CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WILL
STILL HEDGE TOWARD A DRIER SOLUTION FOR MOST DAYS UNTIL THINGS WORK
THEMSELVES OUT IN THE GUIDANCE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF LO CLDS TO LINGER THIS FCST PERIOD AS THE
UPPER GRT LKS WL BE DOMINATED BY A MOIST CYC NW FLOW ARND LO PRES
NEAR HUDSON BAY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW -SHRA THIS AFTN...VFR
CONDITIONS WL PREDOMINATE WITH A RELATIVELY DRY NEAR SFC LYR. CIGS
MAY DROP INTO THE HI END MVFR RANGE LATE TNGT IN THE PRESENCE OF
DIURNAL COOLING AND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A DISTURBANCE THAT
COULD BRING A FEW MORE -SHRA OVERNGT. EVEN IF CIGS DROP INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY LATE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LLVL DRYING WL ALLOW A
RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE SITES BY MID/LATE MRNG ON TUE.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
EXPECT WNW WINDS UP TO 20 KTS INTO MID WEEK AROUND DEEP LOW PRESSURE
NEAR HUDSON BAY. A WEAK PRES GRADIENT WILL DOMINATE DURING THE LATE
WEEK...RESULTING IN WINDS UNDER 20 KTS. NO GALES SEEN ANYTIME SOON.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...KC
LONG TERM...KLUBER
AVIATION...KC
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
347 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER THEN NW ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE HAS STARTED TO LIFT TO THE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES PRODUCING NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTH LEAVING
TEMPERATURES SO FAR IN THE 80S ACROSS THE CWA.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD AS THE MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ONTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE
WEATHER STILL AN UNCERTAINTY. SHEAR IS MARGINAL HOWEVER INSTABILITY
/CAPE/ IS GOOD. THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH STORMS A FEW HAVE BECOME
STRONG AND EVEN SOME SEVERE STORMS HAVE MATERIALIZED WITH SIMILAR
CONDITIONS. THE ONLY MAIN DIFFERENCE TODAY HAS BEEN TEMPS...WHICH
ARE COOLER DUE TO THE HIGH CLOUDS. THUS CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR
STORMS BUT UNSURE ON THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...BUT AGREE WITH THE
MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE FOR NOW. CLOUDS/SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS FOR MOST AREAS IN THE LOWER 60S.
TOMORROW THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR STORMS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN...IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S...HOWEVER WHEN SHOWERS ARE ONGOING
TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE 70S.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY...BUT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AS DOES THE QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THOUGH WARM AIR CONTINUES OVER NEBRASKA...
PERSISTENT CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
ACTIVE.
SOUTH FLOW ON THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS A RETURN OF SOME MOISTURE TO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AGAIN. THE STORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO THE
WESTERN SANDHILLS AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE DRY LINE (INDICATED IN THE
THETA-E GRADIENT)SURGES EASTWARD INTO THE SANDHILLS. THE AVAILABLE
ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 1000J/KG WITH 35-45KT DEEP
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THE UPDRAFTS AND THE RISK
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW. IT IS NOT UNTIL SATURDAY THAT
THE AVAILABLE ENERGY AND THE SHEAR BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER MOST
MODELS DEVELOP ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY T IN THE NORTH
PLATTE TAF. FOR NOW CONTINUED THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR KVTN THIS
EVENING AS THIS REMAINS THE HIGHEST LIKELYHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY
DEVELOP AND AMEND AS NEEDED. THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST MVFR/IFR
STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF SW NEB IN THE MORNING. SINCE WE HAD A
BRIEF STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE IT OUT. WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 T0 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MASEK
SHORT TERM...MASEK
LONG TERM...SPRINGER
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
106 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THE H5 PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
ACROSS CANADA AND THE NRN TIER OF STATES. A CLOSED LOW WAS
PRESENT OVER NRN ONTARIO WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING
SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. RIDGING WAS PRESENT ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND CANADIAN ROCKIES WHILE A CLOSED LOW WAS PRESENT
ACROSS NWRN BRITISH COLUMBIA. BROAD WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXTENDED FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES ESE INTO THE NRN
PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS...HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED DOMINANT.
HOWEVER...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS NOTED OVER EASTERN UTAH THIS
MORNING AND SHOWS UP NICELY ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. AT THE
SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM ROUGHLY OGALLALA TO EUSTIS
NEBRASKA. WINDS NORTH OF THIS FEATURE WERE CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH...WHILE SOUTH OF THE FEATURE...WINDS WERE WESTERLY OR
SOUTHERLY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY AS ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMED INTO SOUTHWESTERN AND WEST CENTRAL NEBRASKA FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 AM CDT RANGED FROM 62
AT NORTH PLATTE TO 68 AT IMPERIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECASTING CHALLENGE. ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE DRIVING FORCE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS LATER TONIGHT. FOR THIS MORNING...A H700 WARM FRONT WILL
PUSH FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH SUNRISE.
THE LATEST NAM...AS WELL AS THE HI RES WARW AND WNMM
SOLUTIONS...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE GFS...INITIATE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT INVOF THIS H7 WARM FRONT THIS MORNING. HAVE
INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA FOR THIS MORNING...AS
WELL AS THE PRE FIRST PD FCST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS INSTABILITY AND
THE THREAT FOR STORMS THIS MORNING. ATTM...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE ANCHORED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...OR NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 92. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY AS
THE H7 FRONT STALLS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. BY 21Z...THIS FEATURE WILL BE ORIENTED FROM AROUND
ANTIOCH TO CALLAWAY. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS FEATURE...THERE WILL
DECENT THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HEATING SUFFICIENTLY WEAKENS THE CAP. ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS. BY EVENING...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AFTER
MID EVENING. HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS IF THE FORECAST AREA INVOF THE H700
FRONT. THE LATEST NAM SOLN HAS FCST CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG
CALCULATED FROM THE H700 LAYER ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA BY LATE
EVENING. THIS ALONG WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN THE H500 TO
H700 LAYER WOULD SUPPORT STORMS OVERNIGHT...IF THEY CAN INITIATE
AND THIS IS THE WILDCARD IN THE FORECAST. WITH THE PRESENCE OF
THE H85 FRONT AND A 30 KT LOW LEVEL JET TONIGHT...THE LEADING
EDGE OF THIS BEING FOCUSED ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN
NEBRASKA...MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT PUSH ANY LOWER LEVEL
CONVECTION UP TO THE VERY UNSTABLE MID LEVELS TONIGHT. IF THIS
CAN BE ACHIEVED...WE COULD SEE PERSISTENT STORMS OVERNIGHT IN THE
NORTH. THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FOR THIS PLAYING OUT WITH THE LATEST
NAM...WARW AND WNMM SOLNS FOR TONIGHT...SO FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH
TO RAISE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. AS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...READINGS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S. ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO TOP THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S THANKS TO CLOUD
COVER AND COOLER H85 TEMPS NORTH OF THE FRONT. FOR TONIGHT...LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S THANKS TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS EXPECTED CLOUD COVER.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
A POTENT SHORTWAVE ALOFT CURRENTLY IN UTAH...WILL LIFT NORTH INTO
WYOMING TONIGHT AND THEN TURN EAST AND CROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH T HE MODELS VARY SOMEWHAT WITH THE
STRENGTH AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE WAVE AS IT CROSSES THE
AREA...THEY ALL INDICATE AN UPTICK IN TSTM ACTIVITY. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...AND EXPECT
THAT THIS WILL HELP FOCUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT. SCATTERED TSTMS
SHOULD ACTUALLY ALREADY BE ONGOING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA IN ZONE OF BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT. TSTMS...AT
LEAST IN A SCATTERED FASHION...MAY CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAY...AND EXPECT QUITE A BIT IN THE WAY OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS AS A RESULT. THIS COULD CUT DOWN SOME ON THE SEVERE
THREAT AS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY MAY BE SOMEWHAT MEAGER.
ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
RATHER WEAK WINDS ALOFT. THE BIGGER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN IN SOME PLACES. HAVE MAINTAINED THE 40 TO 50 POPS FOR
THE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS THE WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER IN THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING THE AREA
WITHIN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ECMWF INDICATES A STRONGER WAVE MAY
CROSS THE AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND WILL CARRY SOMEWHAT
HIGHER CHANCES FOR TSTMS DURING THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURE WISE...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT
THE HOT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN IN THAT AREA UNDER THE RIDGE. IN OUR
REGION TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL...IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S. NO HEAT WAVES SEEN IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA...HOWEVER MOST
MODELS DEVELOP ACTIVITY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON AND
KEEP IT NORTH OVERNIGHT. THUS WILL NOT MENTION ANY T IN THE NORTH
PLATTE TAF. FOR NOW CONTINUED THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR KVTN THIS
EVENING AS THIS REMAINS THE HIGHEST LIKELYHOOD OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THAT SAID...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY FOR ANY
DEVELOP AND AMEND AS NEEDED. THE NAM AND RAP SUGGEST MVFR/IFR
STRATUS OVER PORTIONS OF SW NEB IN THE MORNING. SINCE WE HAD A
BRIEF STRATUS LAYER THIS MORNING...CANNOT RULE IT OUT. WINDS
GENERALLY SOUTHEAST AT 10 T0 20 MPH.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CLB
SHORT TERM...CLB
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...MASEK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
256 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOR THE COAST. MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING CLOSER TO THE AREA
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN
THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT IS WORKING ITS WAY INLAND AND
WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THE COAST
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER
COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY. THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS
DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT 3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.
THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE COAST TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING MORE HEAVY RAIN TO THE
REGION...MOSTLY THE COASTAL AREAS. GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS
WHICH SHOWS A STRONG AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...ONCE AGAIN MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS. MOS NUMBERS SEEM CURIOUSLY LOW CONSIDERING THE
HEAVY QPF GENERATED BY STRONG FORCING. I BRIEFLY CONTEMPLATED A
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COASTAL ZONES BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW.
BY TUESDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS ANY MID
LEVEL FEATURE GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND THE
RAINFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END. ANOTHER DEWPOINT FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WITH MID LEVEL DRYING AS WELL...POPS WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT STILL IN THE FORECAST ALBEIT AT ISOLATED COVERAGE AND
INLAND. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMATOLOGY OUTSIDE
OF THE COASTAL AREAS TUESDAY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWER DEWPOINTS
SHOULD PRECLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...ONE LAST DAY OF HEAT ON THURSDAY BUT CHANGES
NOT FAR BEHIND AS A FAIRLY SHARP TROUGH (VERY POORLY REPRESENTED ON
THE GFS COMPARED TO OTHER GUIDANCE) BEARS DOWN ON THE AREA. THIS
UPPER WAVE CROSSES THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT
WHICH MAY LEAVE MUCH OF THE REGION WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. SOME TRAILING ENERGY ALOFT WILL THEN BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY BUT THE
DECELERATING BOUNDARY SHOULD TAKE UNTIL SATURDAY TO GET THROUGH.
THIS IS PROBABLY THE LEAST CERTAIN FACET OF THE FORECAST AS MODELS
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY ON THE SENSE OF TIMING. I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF WE END UP REFINING THE FORECAST IN A SLIGHTLY MORE PESSIMISTIC
DIRECTION LATER IN THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE
BOUNDARY MAY LINGER LONGER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND
10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE COAST OR JUST INLAND
WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS CHURNED UP FOR MOST OF THE DAY TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH AT A GOOD CLIP OF 15-20 KNOTS FOR A FEW
HOURS EVENTUALLY TURNING A BIT SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY. AS THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AN OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SPEEDS MUCH LIGHTER...AROUND TEN
KNOTS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SCEC SEAS TUESDAY DROPPING TO 2-4
FEET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...HURSDAY AND FRIDAY PUT THE REGION IN A
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. INITIALLY THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY THE
NORMAL SUMMER TIME BERMUDA HIGH BUT TRANSITION TO BEING MORE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND THEN THE FRONT
ITSELF. THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THOUGH ITS
DECELERATION MAKES THIS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN. AT SOME POINT LATE IN
THE PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD LEAD TO A CONSIDERABLE VEERING IN WIND
DIRECTION AND ALSO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN WIND SPEED. SEAS MAY NOT
CHANGE HEIGHT APPRECIABLY THROUGH FROPA THOUGH THE WAVE FACES SHOULD
STEEPEN AS THE CHANGING WINDS SHORTEN THE DOMINANT PERIOD.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...DRH
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...MRR/DRH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
158 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE UP THE COAST THROUGH
TUESDAY BRINGING A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FOR THE COAST. ON WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLING NORTH OF THE AREA BRINGING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH AND STALLS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM MONDAY...CURRENTLY A FRONT WORKING ITS WAY INLAND
AND WILL SLOWLY MOVE TOWARDS THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE COAST A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA OUT OF
FLORIDA RIDING UP THE COAST. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE
AXIS FROM COASTAL PENDER COUNTY TO BACK TO WILLIAMSBURG COUNTY.
THE LATEST HRRR SHOWS THIS DIURNAL CONVECTION SLOWLY BY EARLY THIS
EVENING SO WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
3 TO 4 HOURS IN THIS AREA.
THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD AND WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE AND INCREASE THE CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S FARTHER INLAND
AND THE MIDDLE 70S ALONG THE COAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BIG CHANGES IN THE GUIDANCE FROM LAST
NIGHT...BUT FORTUNATELY HAVE BEEN HANDLED WELL BY THE AFTN
FORECASTER. LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WILL BE
PUSHING SLOWLY NE JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. NHC GIVES THIS
A 10% CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...AND GUIDANCE IS
DEVELOPING A WEAK ASYMMETRIC WARM CORE...BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT
HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO BECOME ANYTHING TRULY TROPICAL.
REGARDLESS...VERY MOIST AIRMASS NOTED BY PWATS OVER 2.25 INCHES
ALONG THE COAST WILL SUPPORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THE FIRST
HALF OF TUESDAY BEFORE THIS LOW SKIRTS OFF TO THE NE. SREF PROBS ARE
WELL OVER 80% FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT TOWARDS I-95...AREAS
THAT TRULY NEED THE RAIN...WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS THANKS TO A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS. WILL BUMP POP TO LIKELY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
SLOWLY WINDING DOWN TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL
BE WELL AWAY FROM THE AREA WITH RIDGING DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONVECTION CHANCES...ALTHOUGH WILL
MAINTAIN SUB-CLIMO POP DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND A DRIER COLUMN.
TEMPS TUESDAY WILL FEATURE A WIDE RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST...ESPECIALLY THE CAPE FEAR COAST...MAY STRUGGLE
OUT OF THE MID 80S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...WHILE LOCATIONS WEST
OF I-95 WILL AGAIN SOAR ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE
UNIFORM AND HOTTER...WITH HIGHS REACHING WELL INTO THE 90S
EVERYWHERE...AND MAYBE A SPOT 100 IN THE WARMEST PLACES. LOWS BOTH
NIGHTS WILL BE A DEGREE OR 2 EITHER SIDE OF 75.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...HOT WEATHER THURSDAY AS RIDGING ALOFT PERSISTS
ONE MORE DAY WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY ON FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA. THIS FRONT LOOKS SURPRISINGLY STRONG FOR EARLY-
AUGUST...AND IN ADDITION TO GOOD CONVECTION CHANCES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE. THE
SUBSEQUENT LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE -1 TO -2 SD`S FROM
CLIMO...AND BOTH MEX/ECE NUMBERS ARE ALREADY BELOW CLIMO EVEN AS
THEY ARE POSITIVELY INFLUENCED BY THE MEAN. THIS SUGGESTS THAT
THURSDAY WILL BE HOT...FRIDAY SEASONABLE...AND THEN BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE WEEKEND. INHERITED LOOKS GOOD FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MID-TO-UPR
80S AND WILL DROP ONLY SLIGHTLY. BY SUNDAY HOWEVER...DRIER AIR IS
FORECAST SO POP WILL RAMP DOWN BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...LIGHT OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
OCCURRING BETWEEN KFLO AND KMYR EAST TO KILM. MVFR CIGS/TEMPO
MVFR/IFR VSBYS ARE OCCURRING WITH THE SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHRA AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE BEST CONFIDENCE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY KILM. THE CHANCE OF VCTS IS LOW.
PRECIPITATION MAY EASE OFF THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AFFECTING MAINLY THE COASTAL
TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...CHANCE SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WITH TEMPO MVFR/IFR
TUESDAY. OTHERWISE PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE AFTERNOON SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 PM MONDAY...THE WINDS CONTINUE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FEET. OVERNIGHT EXPECT THE WINDS AND SEA TO
INCREASE WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 3 TO 5 FEET WITH
WINDS OF 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/... AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...POSSIBLE SCA CONDITIONS START THE
PERIOD AS A LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SLOWLY MOVING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY DRAPED ALONG THE COAST. ALTHOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS...UP TO 20 KTS...THE
PROLONGED DURATION AND FETCH OF THESE WINDS WILL DRIVE SEAS UP TO
4-6 FT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE LOW PULLS AWAY TUESDAY NIGHT
WINDS WILL EASE AND SHIFT TO THE W/NW FOR A SHORT TIME INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BEFORE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK
TOWARDS THE WATERS AND WINDS RETURN TO THE S/SW AT 10-15 KTS LATE
WEDNESDAY. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST FIRST THING WEDNESDAY AT 3-5 FT
THANKS TO THE RESIDUAL SPECTRUM FROM TUESDAY...BEFORE FALLING TO
2-4 FT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 AM MONDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW
THURSDAY AND MOST OF FRIDAY...WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME 10-15 KT SW
WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS. BRIEF INCREASES UP TO 20 KTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE EVENING AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH SHARPENS AS WELL. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANY WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE EXTENDED. SEAS WILL BE 2-
4 FT...RISING UP TO 3-5 FT THURSDAY EVENING ON THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED WINDS.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...HAWKINS
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEDFORD OR
918 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015
.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE VORTICITY LOBE THAT MOVED NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AREA LAST NIGHT IS NOW WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS MORNING, UP AROUND LEMOLO LAKE, BUT THAT`S ABOUT IT.
WE HAVE ADJUSTED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS THIS MORNING TO REMOVE ANY
THUNDER THREAT. THERE`S STILL A LOT OF SMOKE OUT THERE THIS
MORNING AND THERE REALLY DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE ANYTHING ON THE
IMMEDIATE HORIZON TO MOVE IT OUT OF HERE, SO WE`LL HAVE TO KEEP IT
IN THE FORECAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. CLOUD COVER IS
MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS MORNING AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD AND THIN OUT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW PRETTY GOOD INSTABILITY
WEST OF THE CASCADES THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE OF AROUND 1500 J/KG,
BUT MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS IS MINIMAL AND THINK THIS WILL BE
A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF MEDFORD. WE
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING AND MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN JOSEPHINE/JACKSON COUNTIES. MOISTURE
IS HIGHER IN THE MID-LEVELS FROM THE MARBLE/SISKIYOU MOUNTAINS
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CASCADES AND EAST SIDE IN OREGON
(MAINLY NORTH OF LAKEVIEW) WHERE INSTABILITY IS SIMILAR. SO EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LATEST HRRR IS SHOWING THE BEST ACTIVITY TO BE
ACROSS KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTIES. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT. PLEASE SEE FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW FOR DETAILS.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WANE LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. MAINLY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY FOR THE SAME
GENERAL LOCATIONS. OVERALL, TODAY AND TOMORROW, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, WHICH FOR MEDFORD MEANS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S. SPILDE
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE 03/12Z TAF CYCLE...AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG WITH
IFR/LIFR CIGS/VIS AT THE COAST THIS MORNING WILL RETREAT OFFSHORE
LATE THIS MORNING, THEN RETURN AGAIN TONIGHT. AREAS OF SMOKE WILL
PRODUCE MVFR VIS OVER SOUTHWEST OREGON, INCLUDING KMFR AND KLMT AT
TIMES. CONDITIONS MAY WORSEN TO IFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FIRES
PRODUCE MORE SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER THE
CASCADES AND EAST SIDE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE MVFR
CIGS/VIS ALONG WITH GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS. -WRIGHT
&&
.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY 2 AUGUST 2015...WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE INLAND, AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT CHOP THIS
AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD TUESDAY AND REMAIN
MODERATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER LATER IN
THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY REACH GALES OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. -WRIGHT
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 528 AM PDT MON AUG 3 2015/
DISCUSSION...APPROXIMATELY 1000 CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES
HAVE BEEN RECORDED BY BLM LIGHTNING IN THE LAST 24 HOURS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE, TEMPERATURES WERE DOWN AN
AVERAGE OF 12 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WERE UP, LEADING TO SOME RAINFALL WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOST AREAS STILL RECEIVED LESS THAN 0.10",
AREAS THAT GOT MORE LIGHTNING SUCH AS THE WARNER MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND LAKEVIEW, CURRY AND JOSEPHINE COUNTIES, AND MODOC AND
KLAMATH COUNTIES DID GENERALLY GET 0.10" OR MORE. A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEASTERN KLAMATH AND LAKE COUNTY RESULTED IN
WIND GUSTS OF 30-45 MPH AS WELL AS RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE 0.30-0.80"
RANGE. IN OTHER AREAS, SUCH AS JACKSON COUNTY AND AREAS ALONG AND
NEAR THE CASCADE CREST, CLOUD COVER AND SMOKE RESULTED IN COOLING
WHICH PREVENTED MORE THAN A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND STRIKES.
THIS MORNING OUR CONVERGENT 500MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM THAT HAS BEEN
IN THE FORECAST AREA WITH IT`S ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OVER THE LAST
24 HOURS IS STILL DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY
INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG AND WEST OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. THIS FEATURE IS OF UTMOST CONCERN TODAY BECAUSE A
RETURN OF PRONOUNCED SURFACE HEATING ALONG WITH THIS FEATURE AND
NOW AMPLE SURFACE MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED TO COMBINE TO BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. MODEL 850MB COMPUTED
LIFTED INDICES ARE ON THE ORDER OF -2C TO -5C ON THE GFS20 AND -4C
TO -8C ON THE NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ABOUT THE
OREGON CAVES AREA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE,
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MARBLE MOUNTAINS, ACROSS THE SISKIYOUS, AND
IN THE CASCADES. IN FACT, FOR THE INTERIOR WEST SIDE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE GREATEST CAPE VALUES DEPICTED IN THE LAST
4 DAYS OVER THE AREA, WHICH MEANS THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY,
EVEN COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS. THE LIMITING FACTOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MANY AREAS APPEARS TO BE
MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY MOISTURE IN THE 600-500MB LAYER. IN SHORT, WE
EXPECT THAT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE ASTOUNDING TODAY,
BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF LIGHTNING WHERE THEY DO OCCUR.
ADDITIONALLY, FOR ACTIVE WILDFIRE AREAS, KNOWN AND UNKNOWN, WHERE
UPSTREAM SMOKE DOES NOT SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT SUNSHINE, WE EXPECT
THAT LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR SMOKE COLUMNS TO DEVELOP THUNDERSHOWERS OVER
AREAS OF FOCUSED HEAT.
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE CASCADES,
SISKIYOUS, AND MARBLE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE OREGON EAST
SIDE. LOCALLY MODERATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THE STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS, BUT NEW FIRE STARTS THAT COULD SPREAD
FROM OUTFLOW WINDS ARE OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TONIGHT WE SHOULD FINALLY CATCH A BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS TRY TO PERCOLATE NORTH IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.
EXPECT STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING TO BE SLOW MOVERS AND
ISOLATED EXCEPT IN WESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY WHERE SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER AND HIGH HUMIDITIES SHOULD LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL OF NEW STARTS, BUT WE`LL NEED TO GET A CHECK ON FUEL
RECEPTIVENESS TO DETERMINE IF ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
NEEDED THERE. OF NOTE, IT APPEARS THERE WERE AT LEAST 12 NEW FIRES
REPORTED IN THAT AREA IN THE LAST 2 DAYS.
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, LIKELY COOLER THAN THE CURRENT ONE,
IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND IN TO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BTL
FIRE WEATHER...UPDATED 230 AM PDT MONDAY 3 AUGUST 2015...
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS MORNING AS A TROUGH AXIS
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTH OF US. WE CAN`T REALLY RULE OUT A FEW RANDOM
STRIKES OVER OUR NORTHERN ZONES THIS MORNING, BUT IN GENERAL ALL
THAT`S LEFT ARE SHOWERS WHICH WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND
DECREASE. AS A RESULT, ALL REMAINING RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR THIS
MORNING HAVE BEEN DROPPED.
THERE REMAINS QUITE A LOT OF CLOUD OVER THE AREA, BUT SATELLITE
SHOWS AN AREA OF CLEARING SOUTH OF US WHICH IS IN BETWEEN THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH AXIS AND ANOTHER OFF THE CALIFORNIA
COAST. THIS CLEARING WILL MOVE OVER US THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL BRING SOME SUN BACK TO THE AREA AND START THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
HEATING, MODEST COOLING ALOFT, AND MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
SHOWERS/STORMS OF THE LAST 24 HOURS, WILL RESULT IN SOME PRETTY
IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY TODAY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CASCADES AND
SISKIYOUS. AS MENTIONED, THERE IS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH AXIS OFF THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH HERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
PROVIDE THE TRIGGER FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WE ALREADY HAVE A RED FLAG WARNING OUT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST
SIDE, WHICH LOOKS FINE, BUT RED FLAGS WILL BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE CASCADES AND SISKIYOUS TODAY. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR A STORM TO GET
OUT OVER PORTIONS OF THE WEST SIDE VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF ZONE 622 (ROGUE VALLEY), BUT
CONFIDENCE ISN`T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY WEST SIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AT THIS TIME. -WRIGHT
&&
.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ624-625.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR ORZ617-621-623.
CA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM PDT THIS
EVENING FOR CAZ280.
PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
$$
MAS/BTL/TRW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH THE STATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE MIDWEEK
BEFORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
SLOW MOVING FRONT MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
6PM UPDATE...
RELATIVELY STABLE AIR DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON EFFECTIVELY CAPPING CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
WEAK COLD FRONT. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED OVER SWRN PA WHERE
THE MOST ACTIVE STORMS ARE IN PROGRESS AS OF 6 PM. THE HRRR TRACKS
THESE STORMS EAST THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHILE
KEEPING MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
AFFECTING THE REGION INTO THE WEE HOURS OF TUESDAY MORNING.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT AS WE
TYPICALLY SEE IT BECOME MORE STABLE AFTER WE LOSE THE SOLAR
HEATING.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...HAVE DOWNPLAYED THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS GIVEN THE MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND APPROACHING
NIGHTFALL.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NW TO MID
60S OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LA CORTE/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
609 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND LATER ON ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENN.
THE EARLIER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LARGELY DISSOLVED. A DISTINCT PRE...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH SLID
EAST ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND LLVL RIDGING AND SEVERAL DEG F OF DEWPOINT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE HAS GREATLY NEGATED THE CHC FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 17Z VERSION
CONTINUES TO FIRST DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...AND THEN WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR BENEATH INCREASING DYNAMICS/RE REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW MODERATELY TALL AND
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMT OF SHEAR NOTED ABOVE...AND LACK OF
BACK BUILDING. MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS VIA BUFKIT HOURLY
SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE
WSW.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEG F THROUGH 21Z REACHING MAXES IN
THE U70S NW...L-M 80S CENTRAL ZONES AND U80S TO AROUND 90F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE EAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CFRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID SUSQ VALLEY WARRANT LOW
LIKELY POPS TO COVER DEVELOPING CONVECTION THERE AND THE
ASSOCIATED TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO...12 HOUR PERIODS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY
NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN CONTRAST TO FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS ALONG WITH THE NEAR-TERM
HRRR/COSPA GUIDANCE SHOW THE GREATEST RISK OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE AIRSPACE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME
STORMS MAY LAST OR EVEN REDEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT INVOF THE SERN
TERMINALS. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND COVERAGE SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN PREVIOUSLY FCST...THEREFORE CUT BACK ON TS IN
THE TAFS AND WILL HANDLE TSTM IMPACTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS.
OUTLOOK...
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...STEINBUGL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
332 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND LATER ON ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENN.
THE EARLIER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LARGELY DISSOLVED. A DISTINCT PRE...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH SLID
EAST ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND LLVL RIDGING AND SEVERAL DEG F OF DEWPOINT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE HAS GREATLY NEGATED THE CHC FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 17Z VERSION
CONTINUES TO FIRST DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...AND THEN WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR BENEATH INCREASING DYNAMICS/RE REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW MODERATELY TALL AND
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMT OF SHEAR NOTED ABOVE...AND LACK OF
BACK BUILDING. MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS VIA BUFKIT HOURLY
SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE
WSW.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEG F THROUGH 21Z REACHING MAXES IN
THE U70S NW...L-M 80S CENTRAL ZONES AND U80S TO AROUND 90F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE EAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CFRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID SUSQ VALLEY WARRANT LOW
LIKELY POPS TO COVER DEVELOPING CONVECTION THERE AND THE
ASSOCIATED TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO...12 HOUR PERIODS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY
NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN CONTRAST TO FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY SO WILL KEEP SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT
MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE DRY UNTIL THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR- LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF
SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE
OFF LATE NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER LATER IN THE WEEK BEFORE WARMING
UP INTO NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
306 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST
AND THROUGH THE STATE LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT...TRIGGERING A
FEW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK WILL
HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE FRONT
WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER THE SUSQ VALLEY...AND LATER ON ACROSS THE NW MTNS AND LAUREL
HIGHLANDS OF PENN.
THE EARLIER AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
HAS LARGELY DISSOLVED. A DISTINCT PRE...COLD FRONTAL TROUGH SLID
EAST ACRS THE ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MTNS DURING THE MIDDAY
HOURS...AND LLVL RIDGING AND SEVERAL DEG F OF DEWPOINT DRYING IN
ITS WAKE HAS GREATLY NEGATED THE CHC FOR CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MTNS.
LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT 17Z VERSION
CONTINUES TO FIRST DEVELOP SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE MIDDLE SUSQ VALLEY
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED LEE TROUGH...AND THEN WITH A SURGE OF
HIGHER PWAT AIR BENEATH INCREASING DYNAMICS/RE REGION OF AN 80 KT
UPPER JET.
ALTHOUGH THE SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER
ALMOST ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WILL MAKE SOME MODIFICATIONS TO THE
AREAL DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF CONVECTION INTO TONIGHT.
MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW MODERATELY TALL AND
MOVE FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY UNI-
DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE
PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG ACROSS
ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE MUCH OF A THREAT LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT BASED ON THE AMT OF SHEAR NOTED ABOVE...AND LACK OF
BACK BUILDING. MESO BETA ELEMENT VECTORS VIA BUFKIT HOURLY
SOUNDINGS IMPLY MUCH MORE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF STORMS FROM THE
WSW.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEG F THROUGH 21Z REACHING MAXES IN
THE U70S NW...L-M 80S CENTRAL ZONES AND U80S TO AROUND 90F ACROSS
THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY.
SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER/MOVE EAST INTO THE
CWA THIS EVENING WITH THE CFRONT PUSHING SE THROUGH THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SCATTERED...BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MID SUSQ VALLEY WARRANT LOW
LIKELY POPS TO COVER DEVELOPING CONVECTION THERE AND THE
ASSOCIATED TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO...12 HOUR PERIODS THIS
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
LOWS EARLY TUESDAY WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY
NOT BE A PROBLEM DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS IN CONTRAST TO FOG.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/...
A RATHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH AND SECONDARY CFRONT WILL BE DIVING
SE FROM THE UPPER GLAKES REGION. ALTHOUGH THE LLVL ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE WAKE OF MONDAY NIGHT/S
CFROPA...STG FORCING BENEATH THE L.E. REGION OF A 95 KT JET WILL
LIKELY SPARK AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NRN MTNS.
MAX TEMPS WILL VARY FROM THE 70S ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE
CWA...TO THE 80S IN THE SE HALF. CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAD MOVED THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER NORTH BUT THEY HAVE RETURNED SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY UNTIL WED NIGHT OR THURS. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR-
LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A
HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH OVER THE
SUSQ VALLEY WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 20-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. ISOLD-SCT P.M. SHRA/TSRA CENTRAL AND NRN PENN.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
SAT...VFR WITH A LOW CHC OF MVFR IN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHRA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
1227 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE STATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. LARGELY CONFLUENT
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID WEEK
WILL HELP HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL HANG UP JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION AND MAY RETURN
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATER THIS WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
WAITING GAME IS ON FOR CONVECTION TO BEGIN FIRING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MDTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
OVER CENTRAL PENN. AN AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS/LAYERED MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DISSOLVE AS IT DRIFTS EAST AT
20-25 KTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PART OF THE CWA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
IT APPEARS THAT HIGH RES MODELS /4 KM WRF...AND HRRR - HRRRX/ ARE
LATCHING ONTO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS MID/HIGH CLOUD DECK TO
ACT AS A DECENT BOUNDARY FOR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND LLVL
CONVERGENCE /AS A RESULT OF DEEPER VERTICAL MIXING OF WESTERLY
MOMENTUM OCCURS IN THE CLEARING SKIES OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN/.
SUNSHINE THROUGH THINNING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS NWRN PENN WILL
COMBINE WITH AN APPROACHING CFRONT TO TRIGGER ANOTHER LINE OR TWO
OF STG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSRA ACROSS NRN OHIO AND NEAR THE
LAKE ERIE BREEZE BOUNDARY IN FAR NWRN PENN.
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SFC WILL VEER A BIT THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. THE FRONT THEN WASHES OUT AND WILL BE
TOUGH TO DISCRIMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPC DAY ONE OUTLOOK KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK OVER ALMOST ALL OF
CENTRAL PA. THE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SERN COS. THIS IS PRESUMABLY
DUE TO THE LOSS OF CAPE AS THE HEAT OF THE DAY GOES AWAY.
HOWEVER...THE MIXED LAYER CAPES OF 1-2K JOULES AND GOOD DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAKE FOR AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE STORMS WILL GROW TALL AND MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY W-E. 0-3KM BULK SHEAR WILL INCREASE TO 30-35
KTS...WITH 0-6KM VALUES ABOUT 10 KTS FASTER. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE SEVERAL...EMBEDDED ORGANIZED BOWS WITHIN
THE FEW BKN LINES OF SHOWERS/TSRA...CONSIDERING THE NEARLY
UNI-DIRECTIONAL VERTICAL WIND PROFILE. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT
CAPE PER SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE HAS INCREASED TO 1000-1200 J/KG
ACROSS ROUGHLY THE SERN HALF OF THE CWA AT 16Z.
MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL IS THE SECONDARY SEVERE THREAT IN THIS
CASE.
HEAVY RAIN DOES NOT SEEM TO POSE A THREAT TODAY WITHOUT SLOW-
MOVING STORMS OR MUCH POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING. SUNSHINE WITH
HELP FROM A WEST/DOWNSLOPE SFC WIND WILL HELP THE MAXES TOUCH 90
IN THE SERN THIRD OF THE AREA. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S WILL KEEP HEAT-RELATED FLAGS ON THE SHELF TODAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
MOST LIKELY...A BROKEN ASSORTMENT OF STORMS WILL BE ON-GOING AT
THE START OF THE SHORT-TERM. SOME ORGANIZATION FROM MULTI-CELL
CLUSTERS TO BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD EMERGE DUE TO THE UNI-DIR WIND
PROFILE. THE CURRENT CROP OF MESO MDLS HAS A POOR LEVEL OF
CONTINUITY AMONG THEM WHEN IT COMES TO HOW LONG CONVECTION WILL
LAST AND WHEN THE ALL-CLEAR WILL SOUND. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE LATER TODAY...BUT
GETS LOST IN THE DISTURBANCES IN THE P-FILED CAUSED BY CONVECTIVE
COLD POOLS. HOWEVER...BY MIDNIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD START TO EMERGE
OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY
RANGE CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
OCCUR.
LOWS WILL GET INTO THE 50S IN THE NW BUT FOG MAY NOT BE A PROBLEM
DUE TO SOME AIR MOVEMENT. THIS USUALLY SPELLS LOW CLOUDS INSTEAD
OF FOG.
TUESDAY SEEMS LIKE A DRY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. BUT...
THE HEATING COULD AGAIN POP AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE NRN MTNS AND
PERHAPS THE LAURELS. THE COVERAGE OF ANYTHING WHICH WOULD MAKE
PRECIP REACH THE GROUND IS GOING TO BE WIDELY SCT. HAVE HELD ONTO
THE IDEA OF A LOW POP IN THE FAR SE AS WELL SINCE THE FRONT
SHOULD NOT MOVE TOO FAR AWAY. MAXES IN THE 70S NW HALF AND 80S SE
HALF. NOT TOO FAR OFF NORMALS FOR LATE SUMMER.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN QUEBEC SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL TO SLIGHTLY NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AS A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY HANGS OUT JUST TO THE SOUTH
OF THE STATE. EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS/EC HAD MOVED THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER NORTH BUT THEY HAVE RETURNED SOUTHWARD A BIT WITH THIS
PACKAGE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY WILL KEEP
SOME POP IN THE SRN PART OF THE STATE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE
DRY UNTIL WED NIGHT OR THURS. THEN A STACKED LOW WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND MAY MAKE A MORE-OR-
LESS CONSTANT RAIN INSTEAD OF SHOWERY/CONVECTIVE PRECIP. THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE A
HERALD FOR QUIETER WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER
LATER IN THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND PRECEDING SFC/LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS CENTRAL PENN WILL ACT AS TWO AREAS OF FOCUS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA TSRA WITH SCT/BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.
A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH VERY BRIEF IFR
VSBY IN +RA AND HIGHLY-LOCALIZED WESTERLY SFC WIND GUSTS AOA
40KTS. WILL CONTINUE TO USE -SHRA WITH VCTS BTWN 18-22Z TO SHOW
TSTM IMPACT RISK AT ALL TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
TUE...VFR. VERY ISOLD P.M. SHRA PSBL XTRME NRN AIRSPACE.
WED...VFR. NO SIG WX.
THU-FRI...VFR/MVFR WITH RAIN PSBL AS LOW PRES TRACKS SOUTH OF
CENTRAL PA.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...DANGELO/CERU
AVIATION...LAMBERT/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD OUR REGION. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM EDT...THE 17Z RUN OF THE HRRR ADVERTISES ISOLATED
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NC/SC LINE THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...IT HAS NOT INITIALIZED ESPECIALLY WELL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANY ISOLD SHOWERS FIGHTING THE DRY AIR IN
PROFILES. WILL CONTINUE TO CURB POPS TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE
AND CONFINE TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH LATE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NE ALONG
THE SE COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD PERMIT ALL ASSOCIATED
DEEPER MOISTURE TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT.
ANOTHER SEABREEZE FRONT MAY WORK IN FROM THE SE TO FURTHER ELEVATE
DEWPOINTS AND KEEP MINS ON THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO. PATCHY DAYBREAK
FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN DRIVE
ANY CONVECTION EASTWARD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY.
PROFILES ARE STILL ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN TO 6.5 DEG C OR BETTER AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL AID TRIGGERING. A MOS BLEND OF LOW END POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
SEEMS REASONABLE. MAX TEMPS MAY GAIN ANOTHER DEGREE OVER MONDAY
VALUES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AT 200 PM EDT MONDAY...A LARGE UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY IS FORECAST
TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD ALLOWING FLOW OVER THE SE U.S. TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL IN NATURE. AN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST BY LATE THURSDAY. IN REGARD TO SENSIBLE WEATHER...A WEAK COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SETTLE SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
PERHAPS SOMOE WIDELY SCT CONVECTION LINGERING DURING THE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE NOSING SOUTHWARD SHOULD ALLOW SOMEWHAT DRYER AIR TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION TUE NIGHT INTO WED. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A
PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH WED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION MAY THE UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY AND SW NC MOUNTAINS
WHERE MODELS SHOW SOME CONVECTIVE RESPONSE LATE WED AS THE SFC FRONT
BEGINS TO RETURN AS A WARM FRONT. THE 12Z NAM DEPICTS THE WEAK FRONT
FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WED NIGHT TRIGGERING
PERHAPS SOME SCT CONVECTION. ON THURSDAY...THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
SHORT WAVE SHOULD TRIGGER NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...WITH SCT AFTERNOON CONVECTION ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN QUITE WARM AS 1000-850MB THICKNESS FIELD SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE
DESPITE THE WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE. MAX TEMPS ON THU MAY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES LOWER DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDS AND CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING AT 00Z FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW TOPPING THE SW RIDGE GOING EAST. TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES
WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGE AT THAT TIME WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST AS
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH IN MID WEEK WILL DIG THR 500MB TROUGH OVER
CAROLINAS AND SUPPRESS RIDGE TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER OUR REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SC.
RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS THE BEST ISOLD
TO SCT COVERAGE BACK WEST TOWARD THE MTNS THROUGH LATE DAY. WILL
THUS KEEP THE KCLT TAF DRY. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS DURING
THE DAYTIME PARTS OF THE TAF...WITH MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT
NIGHT. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOW STRATUS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE
AIRFIELD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE ALONG WITH REINFORCING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
RETURNS THIS EVENING. MVFR FOG SEEMS THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR DAYBREAK
VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY THROUGH 18Z TUE...BUT CONVECTION
CHANCES LOOK BETTER TO THE NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT S TO SE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...LIKELY TOGGLING WNW TO NW TUE MORNING...BUT STILL LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS/TSRA NEAR THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS MOST AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY SRLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND NW AT KAVL. MORNING MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL WHERE SOME STRATUS WILL ALSO BE HINTED
AT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ACROSS WRN NC ON TUESDAY...BUT
PROBABLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT AS A BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG A STALLING FRONT
THROUGH MID WEEK...AND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...LG
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...HG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
152 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY RETURN THROUGH THE WORK WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM EDT...THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR IS STILL ADVERTISING
ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMING IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NC/SC LINE
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT IT HAS NOT INITIALIZED ESPECIALLY WELL THROUGH
17Z. THERE ALSO REMAINS A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE PROFILES...SO WILL
CURB POPS TOWARD THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AND CONFINE TO LOCATIONS NEAR
THE ESCARPMENT THROUGH LATE DAY.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE BASE OF A BROAD
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN CANADA THROUGH THE SE UNITED STATES
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVING NE ALONG
THE SE COASTLINE EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD CONFINE ALL ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE TO THE COASTAL PLAIN OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER SEABREEZE FRONT MAY
WORK IN FROM THE SE TO FURTHER ELEVATE DEWPOINTS AND KEEP MINS ON
THE WARM SIDE OF CLIMO.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN TIER ON TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
TRIGGER ISOLD TO SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN BLUE RIDGE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WOULD THEN DRIVE
ANY CONVECTION EASTWARD OVER THE NC PIEDMONT THROUGH LATE DAY.
PROFILES ARE STILL ON THE DRY SIDE...BUT 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
SHOULD STEEPEN TO 6.5 DEG C OR BETTER AND THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY
WILL AID TRIGGERING. A MOS BLEND OF LOW END POPS FOR THE NRN HALF
SEEMS REASONABLE. MAX TEMPS MAY GAIN ANOTHER DEGREE OVER MONDAY
VALUES AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN MOST AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AT 230 AM EDT MONDAY...ON TUESDAY MORNING ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL EXIST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF STATES...TO THE SOUTH OF AN
UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY AND A RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS
PATTERN PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE
CAROLINA AND GA COASTS ON TUESDAY MORNING...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THE COLD FRONT REACHES THE NC
MOUNTAINS TUESDAY EVENING....MOVING INTO THE UPSTATE SC ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BOUNDARY THEN RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND REACHES VA BY THURSDAY MORNING.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS MOISTURE SPREADS EAST ALONG
THE FRONT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL ACTUALLY BE
GREATER ON TUESDAY BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES AND MOISTURE INCREASES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN ABOVE NORMAL AS COLD ADVECTION NEVER REALLY
SETS UP WITH FRONT RETREATING.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT 145 PM EDT MONDAY...STARTING AT 00Z FRIDAY...WITH NEARLY ZONAL
WEST TO EAST UPPER FLOW AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MID LEVEL
FLOW TOPPING THE SW RIDGE GOING EAST. TWO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES
WILL BE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN WILL OCCUR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER EAST COAST TROUGH ROUGHLY ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS. UPPER RIDGE AT THAT TIME WILL BE CENTERED OVER WEST
TEXAS. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS A BIT MORE EAST AS
UPPER TROUGH HOLDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
SHORTWAVE PASSING THROUGH IN MID WEEK WILL DIG THR 500MB TROUGH OVER
CAROLINAS AND SUPPRESS RIDGE TO THE WEST.
AT THE SURFACE...THE SLOW MOVING WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH
OVER OUR REGION WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE. THIS FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE
FRONT BECOMING STATIONARY SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF SC.
RAISED POPS A BIT FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE SHORTWAVES
AND FRONTAL PASSAGE. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK TO MODERATE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AND BEST CHANCES OF ANY RAIN WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY FORMED OVER THE NC FOOTHILLS THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS FOCUS THE BEST ISOLD
TO SCT COVERAGE BACK WEST TOWARD THE MTNS THROUGH LATE DAY. WILL
THUS KEEP THE KCLT TAF DRY. EXPECT MAINLY HIGH BASED CUMULUS DURING
THE DAYTIME PARTS OF THE TAF...WITH MOSTLY THIN HIGH CLOUDS AT
NIGHT. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE HAS LOW STRATUS MAKING A RUN TOWARD THE
AIRFIELD EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
AS ANOTHER SEABREEZE AND REINFORCING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURNS
THIS EVENING. MVFR FOG SEEMS THE BEST CONSENSUS FOR DAYBREAK
VISIBILITY. WILL KEEP THE TAF DRY THROUGH 18Z TUE...BUT CONVECTION
CHANCES LOOK BETTER TO THE NW THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT S TO SE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...LIKELY TOGGLE WNW TO NW TUE MORNING...BUT STILL LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS/TSRA NEAR THE ESCARPMENT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE TERMINAL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
LITTLE MORE THAN SCT HIGH BASED CUMULUS MOST AREAS AS DEWPOINTS
CONTINUE TO MIX OUT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY SRLY ACROSS
THE FOOTHILLS AND NW AT KAVL. MORNING MVFR FOG IS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY AT KAVL WHERE SOME FEW STRATUS WILL ALSO BE
HINTED AT. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BETTER ACROSS WRN NC ON TUESDAY...BUT
PROBABLY AFTER 18Z. WINDS WILL VEER THROUGHOUT AS A BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH.
OUTLOOK...GRADUALLY INCREASING PRECIPITATION/RESTRICTION CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS ALONG A STALLING FRONT
THROUGH MID WEEK...AND AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...HG