Forecast Discussions mentioning any of
"HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/28/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
342 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG- KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOME ISOLATED AND
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF G30-40KTS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEX MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING
-SHRA/-TSRA. ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP 09Z-15Z
WITH WINDS AT 10000-14000 FT MSL AT INCREASING TO SW 40KTS AFT
12Z. THESE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z
MONDAY. ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 202 IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
COLORADO. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING CRITERIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ZONE 202 WAS ADDED LATE WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AT A FEW SITES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DEEP MIXING
STILL TO GO...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200>203.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200-202.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
326 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM KCAG-
KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ FROM 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING.
ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. BRIEF
+SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF
G30-40KTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
FOR MOUNTAIN TAF SITES...CIGS MAY DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM
PASSING -SHRA/-TSRA.
NORTHWEST COLORADO...LOCAL SURFACE GUSTS 25KTS IS EXPECTED FROM
19Z THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 02Z THIS EVENING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND
WINDS GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.
IN THE MEANTIME...RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200 AND 202 IN EXTREME NORTHWEST
COLORADO. HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE WITH WINDS APPROACHING CRITERIA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
ZONE 202 WAS ADDED LATE WITH CONDITIONS APPROACHING CRITICAL
LEVELS AT A FEW SITES. WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF DEEP MIXING
STILL TO GO...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED THEM TO THE RED FLAG WARNING
UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200 AND COZ202.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JDC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
...INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING THOUGH NRN NM
AND INTO SE CO THIS MORNING. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN NM AND AZ...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER OUR AREA
LATER TODAY. ALSO...LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL
INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. WILL SEE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR WX
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...MAINLY FOR HAIL AND WINDS. LATEST HRRR HAS
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN MTS BY LATE
MORNING...MOVING EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 20-21Z...THEN INTO
KS BY EARLY EVE. OTHER MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THE
COMMON THEME IS INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY EARLY
EVENING. H7 TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...SO POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NR 100 IS THERE...BUT EARLIER TIMING
OF CONVECTION MAY PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE STORMS ON THE WANE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE KS BORDER BY LATE EVENING...WHILE RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE WRN ZONES. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND/OR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S OVR THE PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MONDAY...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS DAY. SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH G30 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION. WE MAY START APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ON THIS DAY. EXPECT HI TEMPS THIS DAY WILL RANGE IN
THE U90S/L100S PLAINS...80S VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL COOL THE TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT
IT WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST POPS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE. THIS 2ND DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE A
STRONGER FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TUE NITE.
WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY THIS DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
AOA 80F PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S MTNS AND ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. THE DAY WILL LIKELY START OFF CLOUDY AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
OVERALL DRY WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER...OR JUST TO THE WEST OF...THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION IN WEAK WNW TO NW FLOW AT
MID LVLS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL START DRYING OUT AS THE MONSOON
TAP WILL BE BLOCKED BY THIS MID LVL FLOW PATTERN. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE INCREASED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEAR THAT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR
SHOULD BE NOTED FROM APPROXIMATELY 19Z SUNDAY TO 00Z MONDAY.
STRONGEST STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL IN COMBINATION WITH WIND GUSTS
AROUND 40 KNOTS AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...STRONGER STORMS MAY BE
NOTED GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR TO THE KANSAS
BORDER. FINALLY...DUE TO EARLIER THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SOME LOW
CEILINGS MAY BE NOTED AT BOTH THE KCOS AND KPUB TAF SITES
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE 03Z TO 13Z TIME PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS PUEBLO CO
412 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
...INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TODAY...
CURRENT WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MONSOONAL PLUME EXTENDING THOUGH NRN NM
AND INTO SE CO THIS MORNING. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING OVER
SRN NM AND AZ...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO THE NE OVER OUR AREA
LATER TODAY. ALSO...LEAD IMPULSE FROM THE TROUGH OVER THE PACNW WILL
INCREASE FORCING OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS SHOULD STAY
MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY AND THAT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODEST
INSTABILITY OVER THE PLAINS. WILL SEE A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SVR WX
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...MAINLY FOR HAIL AND WINDS. LATEST HRRR HAS
A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN MTS BY LATE
MORNING...MOVING EAST TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY 20-21Z...THEN INTO
KS BY EARLY EVE. OTHER MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS BUT THE
COMMON THEME IS INCREASED COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION
TODAY...WITH ACTIVITY CONSOLIDATING INTO ONE OR MORE MCS BY EARLY
EVENING. H7 TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE WARM...SO POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NR 100 IS THERE...BUT EARLIER TIMING
OF CONVECTION MAY PUT A CAP ON HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.
WILL SEE STORMS ON THE WANE THROUGH THIS EVE...WITH ACTIVITY
SHIFTING TO THE KS BORDER BY LATE EVENING...WHILE RESIDUAL CLOUDS
AND SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE WRN ZONES. DEPENDING ON HOW
THE EXPECTED MCS DEVELOPS...COULD SEE SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOP AND
LINGER OVERNIGHT OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY AND/OR PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS. AT ANY RATE...IT WILL BE A MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S OVR THE PLAINS AND 50S FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ROSE
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MONDAY...
HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THIS DAY. SOME HIGH BASED
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY CONVECTION. SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH G30 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST AREAS OF
THE REGION. WE MAY START APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS IN
SOME LOCATIONS ON THIS DAY. EXPECT HI TEMPS THIS DAY WILL RANGE IN
THE U90S/L100S PLAINS...80S VALLEYS.
TUESDAY...
A COOL FRONT WILL COME ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING AND THIS
WILL COOL THE TEMPS DOWN ABOUT 5F ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. EXPECT
IT WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE DAY...BUT GUIDANCE SHOWS BEST POPS DURING
THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE REGION AS A DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TUE NITE. THIS 2ND DISTURBANCE WILL DRIVE A
STRONGER FRONT DOWN THE PLAINS LATE TUE NITE.
WEDNESDAY...
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER TEMPS WILL BE LIKELY THIS DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
AOA 80F PLAINS. WILL LIKELY SEE BETTER CHANCE OF LATE AFTERNOON
PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE S MTNS AND ALONG THE
CO/NM BORDER. THE DAY WILL LIKELY START OFF CLOUDY AS A LOW STRATUS
DECK WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE PLAINS IN THE MORNING.
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...
OVERALL DRY WX WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS LIKELY THIS PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SET UP OVER...OR JUST TO THE WEST OF...THE 4
CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION IN WEAK WNW TO NW FLOW AT
MID LVLS. THIS PATTERN WILL LIKELY ALLOW A COUPLE OF WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ISOLD POPS OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SO ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX ISSUES
ARE NOT LIKELY...ALTHOUGH WE WILL START DRYING OUT AS THE MONSOON
TAP WILL BE BLOCKED BY THIS MID LVL FLOW PATTERN. /HODANISH
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE TAF SITES WILL BE INCREASED TS ACTIVITY TODAY.
LOOKS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY TIMING FOR STORMS ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR
WILL BE FROM AROUND 19Z-23Z. STRONGEST STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
SMALL HAIL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE E...NR THE KS BORDER. TS
ACTIVITY THIS EVE COULD LEAD TO SOME LOW CIGS AT KCOS AND KPUB IN
THE 03Z TO 12Z TIME PERIOD TONIGHT. WILL NOT EXPLICITLY MENTION IN
TAFS AS THE PROBABILITY IS STILL TOO UNCERTAIN ATTM. ROSE
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1134 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE STREAM REMAINED MOSTLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. BUT AN INVERTED TROUGH IN SONORA
SUNDAY WILL HELP TO PULL THE MOISTURE STREAM BACK INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS THIS MORNING AND INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. PRECIP WATER VALUES CLIMB TO NEAR 1.1 INCH SOUTH OF
I-70. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE NE AT AROUND 20 MPH SO ONLY
LOCALIZED HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FAVORING THE SW SAN JUANS.
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTH RAISING FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS MAY FORM NORTH OF I-70.
THESE STORMS IN AN INVERTED V ENVIRONMENT ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MORE GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING THAN RAIN.
SUNDAY NIGHT THE NE PACIFIC TROUGH WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN. SW GRADIENT WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THIS WILL
ERODE MOISTURE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT A FEW
STORMS CONTINUING PAST MIDNIGHT. MIN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO STAY
ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL.
MONDAY THE TROUGH/S ASSOCIATED 90KT JET NOSES ACROSS NW UTAH THEN
LIFTS INTO WYOMING. AN ASSOCIATED DRY COOL FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NE
UT AND NW CO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SW 700-600MB GRADIENT WINDS
INCREASE TO 40KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THIS SW FLOW IS ALSO QUITE
DRY SO ANY SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EASTERN MOST
MOUNTAINS.
&&
UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO BELOW THE 25 MPH
THRESHOLD WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AROUND 4 PM OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA PROBABILITY IS QUITE
LOW ATTM BUT PASSING STORMS MY IMPACT ILS BREAK POINTS AT
KEGE...KASE AND KRIL TEMPORARILY AFTER 26/20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR COLORADO ZONE 200 FOR SUNDAY HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A RED FLAG WARNING DUE TO LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY...
GUSTY WINDS...AND HAINES INDEX OF 6. ISOLATED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THAT WOULD PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
AND LIGHTNING BUT LITTLE RAIN. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
AFTER 8 PM.
ALSO THE WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203
REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG SOUTHWEST
WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
NORTHWEST COLORADO. WILL LET THE SUNDAY DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THIS
PERIOD IN DETAIL AND MAKE THE WARNING DECISION.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JOE
SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...JOE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO
1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 813 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
WINDS HAVE LESSENED ACROSS NORTHWEST COLORADO BELOW THE 25 MPH
THRESHOLD WITH FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS NO LONGER EXPECTED SO HAVE
ALLOWED THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH SOME
LIGHTNING STRIKES DEVELOPED LATER TODAY AROUND 4 PM OVER THE
EASTERN SAN JUANS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. REST OF
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH THE SHOWERS OVER THE SAN JUANS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. MOISTURE AND CLOUDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS
INCREASING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.
MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AREA FORECAST TERMINALS THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MORE NOTICEABLE CHANGE WILL BE INCREASING MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND IN INCREASED COVERAGE OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ERRATIC AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IMPACTING
FLIGHT OPERATIONS. LOWERED FLIGHT CRITERIA PROBABILITY IS QUITE
LOW ATTM BUT PASSING STORMS MY IMPACT ILS BREAK POINTS AT
KEGE...KASE AND KRIL TEMPORARILY AFTER 26/20Z.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 820 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE ZONE 200 REMAINS IN
EFFECT DUE TO 60 KT UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN PLACE AND DRY AIR
REMAINING OVER NE UTAH AND NW COLORADO WHILE MAINLY STRATIFORM
RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE
ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW ORIGINATING FROM WELL SOUTH OF MOFFAT COUNTY.
ALSO THE WATCH FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203
REMAINS IN EFFECT DUE TO GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCIES ON
FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A TROUGH BRUSHES BY THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER. ON MONDAY CERTAIN PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA MAY
POTENTIALLY BE BATTLING WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE FROM SUNDAYS
SHOWERS BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON QUITE BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT PRETTY QUICKLY.
SINCE ITS JUST A WATCH DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION WITH
SUCH A DEFINED FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA.
&&
.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.
UT...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MDA
SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...15
FIRE WEATHER...MDA/JAM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1246 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HUMID AIR HAS SETTLED INTO THE REGION. A WIND SHIFT LINE WILL DRIFT
SOUTH INTO THE NEW YORK...AND MAY TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL BUILD...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND
DRIFTS TO THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES...DAYTIME
HEATING AND ABUNDANT HUMIDITY WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY...AND ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THESE WILL BE
MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
REGION EARLY THURSDAY...AND LOWER THE HUMIDITY ALITTLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.
IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
THE HEAT BUILDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE REGION IS BETWEEN A
SHARPENING 500 HPA RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GRTLKS AND A SHARPENING
TROF OVER THE MARITIMES AS A 500HPA CUTOFF DIVES SE FM HUDSON`S
BAY TO THE GULF OF SAINT LAWRENCE. THE INITIAL RESPONSE IS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE FORMS/STRENGTHENS OVER THE GRTLKS INCRG SUBSIDENCE...AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE MID ATLC COAST...AND WAA INCREASES. WHILE THE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PRETTY MUCH DOMINATE...ISOLD CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE
ASSOC WITH SHORT WVS DIVING DOWN THE WEST PERIPHERY OF THE CUT
OFF TO OUR EAST...WAA...DIURNAL HEATING MAINLY OVER ELEVATED TRRN
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS.
OTHERWISE TD WILL BE IN THE 60S...MAX TEMPS TUES WILL BE ARND 90
IN MANY AREAS WITH UPPER 80S OVER HIR TRRN. WED WILL TAKE THESE
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S IN MOST AREAS. MINS WILL BE IN THE 60S FOR
THE MOST PART.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 945 AM EDT...CONVECTION WAS SLIDING SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES /DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD/ AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSE TRANSVERSES THE REGION. THIS WAVE SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR
LOOP WILL BE EAST OF THE REGION SHORTLY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING. PER OUR 12Z SOUNDING...WE HAVE MOISTEN UP
THE PROFILE HERE BUT A MUCH DRIER PROFILE SEEN AT KBUF WITH WEAKER
WIND PROFILES. LATEST HRRR POINTS TOWARD WIDELY SCATTERED
CONVECTION WHICH WOULD BE LOOSELY TIED ALONG THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES THAT ARE PROGGED BY THE RAP13 TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I90. PER COORDINATION WITH SPC...WE HAVE PLACE A MARGINAL RISK
FROM ALBANY AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST FOR A ROUGE CELL WITH MAIN
THREAT FROM WINDS.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION...NRN CATSKILLS...SOUTHERN REACHES OF THE LAKE
GEORGE REGION...AND SRN VT SOUTH AND EAST. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE
OVERDOING THE INSTABILITY BY POOLING SFC DEWPTS IN THE L70S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THAT SEEMS TOO HIGH BASED ON THE
UPSTREAM OBS. THE GFS SEEMS CLOSER WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
WITH POCKETS SLIGHTLY GREATER SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...NORTH
AND WEST OF KALY SBCAPES ARE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG. DESPITE THE
RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY...0-6 KM BULK VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES ARE
ONLY IN THE 15-25 KT RANGE. LOOSELY ORGANIZED OR PULSE-TYPE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AS PWATS
ARE IN THE 1-1.50 INCH RANGE ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION
SOUTH...AN INCH OR LESS TO THE NORTH. THE PUSH OF COLD ADVECTION
IS WEAK WITH THE FRONT...AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER
WEAK AT 5-6C/KM. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO
THE LACK OF DEEP SHEAR...AND SFC HEATING BEING LIMITED BY THE
CLOUD COVER OVER MOST OF THE REGION. THERE COULD ALWAYS BE A
ROGUE/ISOLD SEVERE.
IT WILL BE A BIT MORE HUMID THAN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS...AND
HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO M80S IN THE VALLEY
AREAS...AND M70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT FALLS APART AS IT MOVES S/SE OVER SRN NY
AND CNTRL-SRN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS/TSRAS OVER THE ERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS AND BERKSHIRES MAY
CONTINUE TO SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM LAKE ERIE AND OHIO. THE SKIES SHOULD
BEGIN TO CLEAR QUICKLY FROM NW TO SE OVER THE REGION. THE
RECENTLY WET GROUND...AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WITH THE CLEARING
SKIES SHOULD PROMOTE PATCHY FOG OVER MOST OF THE REGION. LOWS
WILL BE ON THE MILD SIDE WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...EXCEPT SOME MID AND U50S OVER THE SRN DACKS...SRN
GREENS...NRN BERKS...AND ERN CATSKILLS.
MONDAY...THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY...SRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA...AND NJ. NW FLOW CONTINUES
ALOFT. A WEAK IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH THE
DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS SOME ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECTING SBCAPES TO BE MAINLY IN THE
500-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH PERHAPS SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES OVER
THE SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. MONDAY SHOULD
NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT A COMBINATION OF THE WEAK SHORT-WAVE IN NW
FLOW ALOFT...AND THE BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS THE SHOWERS/TSRAS. THE
HIGHER POPS WERE USED NORTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CATSKILLS. H850 TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE +15C TO +17C RANGE. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO
U80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U70S TO L80S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MONDAY NIGHT...LOW AND MID LEVEL HEIGHTS START TO QUICKLY INCREASE
UPSTREAM. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHEAST AND SE CANADA
BEGINS TO LIFT OUT. A BROAD H500 RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY BUILDS IN. EXPECT THE ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORM TO QUICKLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MID ATLANTIC STATES. LOWS WILL BE IN THE U50S
TO M60S OVER THE FCST AREA.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...THE HEAT WILL CRANK UP OVER THE REGION...AS THE
HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL BUILD IN. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL START TO
RISE. A POP-UP THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE SRN DACKS/SRN GREENS CLOSER TO RIM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND
THE DEPARTING TROUGH. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES BTWN THE
MTNS/VALLEYS MAY ALSO TRIGGER AN ISOLD TSRA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE REGION WITH H850 TEMPS
RISING TO +17C TO +19C. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S TO L90S IN THE
VALLEY AREAS...AND LOWER TO M80S OVER THE MTNS. ANY POP-UP
THUNDERSTORM/SHOWERS SHOULD FIZZLE WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL
HEATING...AND LOWS BE IN THE 60S OVER THE FCST AREA...AS THE SFC
ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID...WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A HEAT WAVE
TO START OFF THE PERIOD. A COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIRMASS EXPECTED
TO BE USHERED IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL
BE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT SHIFTING EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY. IN THE MEANTIME...A PIECE OF ENERGY
WHICH BREAKS OFF FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING TO HUDSON`S BAY IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST
WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH CAUSING HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE REGION HELPING
MOVE THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY CUTS THROUGH
THE HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CLIMB
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES WHICH MEANS STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. HIGHER PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE SUMMER/YEAR AS
850 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM TO AROUND 20C. HIGHS WEDNESDAY
ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 90S GENERALLY BELOW 1000 FEET
WITH READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
WITH DEW POINTS IN 60S HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE 90S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL VERY MUGGY AND UNCOMFORTABLE FOR MANY WITH LOWS
ONLY EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES WITH
SIMILAR DEW POINTS ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS.
THURSDAY`S TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WARM AS WEDNESDAY
DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S HEAT INDICES SHOULD BE
SIMILAR...IN THE 90S.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING A
LESS HUMID AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE USHERED IN AS WE HEAD INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BACK INTO THE 50S.
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE WARM AND ABOVE NORMAL BY AROUND 5 DEGREES
BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT HAS GOTTEN HUNG UP NEAR THE NEW YORK/WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BORDER WITH THE SYSTEM`S COLD FRONT LOCATED TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. THE DAMPENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECTING
A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY IN THE VICINITY OF AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WEAKENING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. HAVE ADDRESSED
THE THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A PROB30 GROUP IN
THE KALB AND KPSF TAFS AND VCSH IN THE KGFL AND KPOU TAFS. ACTIVITY WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...THEN FOG WILL FORM AS
WINDS DIMINISH AND SKIES BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR. MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPOU AND IFR DEVELOPING AT KGFL
AND KPSF OVERNIGHT.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND AT LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WED NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL FOCUS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY...BUT
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FALL TO 45 TO 65 PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASE TO CLOSE TO 100 PERCENT MONDAY MORNING
IN THE PATCHY FOG. EXPECT THE RH VALUES TO LOWER TO 40 TO 55
PERCENT MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH
TODAY...AND SHIFT TO THE WEST EARLY THIS EVENING AT LESS THAN 10
MPH. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION AT LESS
THAN 10 MPH ON MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZED WITHIN BANK
RISES...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH
RANGE.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
WHICH MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER/WASULA
CLIMATE...IAA
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
206 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER ISOLATED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.
SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.
TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.
WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.
IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.
FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.
WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING AS WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST OVER
THE REGION AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. A BATCH OF SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS
WEAKENING AS THE MOVE EASTWARD. SO NO MENTION OF THUNDER IN TAFS.
EXPECTED A BREAK IN THE STORMS LATER THIS MORNING THEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE HEATING OF THE DAY IN
THE VICINITY AND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DISSIPATING COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HAVE ADDRESSED THIS THREAT WITH A VCSH IN TAFS
AT TIME.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF THIS EVENING AS THE WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR.
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT-WED NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THU: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NEW YORK NY
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT THEN
MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THURSDAY...THEN PASSES JUST EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL NY...AND AS A
WARM FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL IMPACT MAINLY NORTHERN
ZONES AND INTO CT LATE IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LATEST HRRR MODEL
HAS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE
LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL STILL KEEP THE CHANCE IN THE FORECAST.
LOWS TONIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS A
TROUGH BUILDS IN TO THE NORTH. THESE SHORTWAVES COUPLED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE REGION...WILL CONTINUE TO
CARRY CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
SHOWERS AND CONVECTION WILL BE MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE...SO DO NOT
EXPECT RAIN THE ENTIRE TIME. GENERALLY FOLLOWED A NAM/SREF BLEND
FOR POPS...THINKING THE GFS MIGHT BE A TAD OVERDONE WITH ITS
PRECIPITATION. THIS MAY BE A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MOSTLY/PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ALSO...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS DEW
POINTS WARM INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER 60S. MAX TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES IN AND AROUND NYC. LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT DROP INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET BLEND
FOR TEMPERATURES. GUIDANCE WAS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...LINGERING TROUGH BOTH ALOFT AND
AT THE SFC WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE/RIDGING TUE
THROUGH WED. UPSTREAM TROUGH THEN APPROACHES FROM THE
EAST...LOWERING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO BE TIMED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS IT SETTLES NEARBY OR JUST EAST FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. HOWEVER...LATEST ECMWF HANGS THE FRONT UP
NEARBY...BECOMING STATIONARY ACROSS OR JUST EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WHEREAS THE GFS TRACKS THIS WEAKENING FRONT TO THE EAST FRI
AND SAT. WITH THESE DIFFERENCES NOTED...FCST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
RATHER LOW.
IN GENERAL...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY MONDAY
DUE TO AVBL CAPE...AND PRESENCE OF UPPER TROUGH AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...ALBEIT WEAK. ANY STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING.
THEN DRY AND INCREASING HOT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED TUE THROUGH WED.
SOME INSTABILITY NOTED...BUT NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR ANY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN CONVECTION. HOWEVER...THAT CHANGES THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR CLASHES WITH THE STEAMY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST.
PROB FOR CONVECTION WANES BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE
WEAKENING FRONT. CONFIDENCE LOW AS NOTED ABOVE.
TEMPS NEAR NORMAL MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WED AND THU SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST DAYS. HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL
THOSE TWO DAYS. THIS SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDICES IN THE 90S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TUE THROUGH THU. MID TO UPPER 90S POSSIBLE WED AND
THU.
BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AND SAT...READINGS FALL BACK
SLIGHTLY...ALTHOUGH SHOULD STILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE TODAY AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING AS A SFC WARM FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHORTWAVE COMBO
PASS THROUGH THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY N&W OF NYC
TERMINALS LATE THIS AFT/EARLY EVE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST. BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
AT KSWF. WILL CONTINUE PROB30 GROUP FOR KEWR/KTEB/KHPN/KSWF. MVFR
AND POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS IN ANY SHRA/TSRA THAT DEVELOPS. WEAKENING
ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY SHOULD TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS REMAINING
TERMINALS LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
SW WINDS 5-10 KT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. STRONG AFTERNOON
SEABREEZES WILL RESULT IN S WINDS 15-20 KT AT COASTAL TERMINALS.
LOW PROB OF SE SEABREEZE MOVING INTO KEWR/KTEB...LIKELY REMAINING
JUST EAST OF TERMINALS.
.OUTLOOK FOR 06Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
.LATE TONIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MORNING ACROSS OUTLYING
TERMINALS.
.TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR. 5-6SM HAZE DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE.
SW WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEABREEZE DEVELOPMENT AT COASTAL
TERMINALS.
&&
.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD INCREASE WINDS TO NEAR SCA LEVELS
AND BRING SEAS UP TO 4 FT.
A FAIRLY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED
AS WEAK FRONT GIVES WAY TO BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THURSDAY.
OCEAN SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
BUT POSSIBLE SWELL AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS COULD RESULT IN
BUILDING 5 FOOT SEAS WED NIGHT AND THU PER WAVE WATCH.
HOWEVER...WAVE WATCH HAS A TENDENCY TO OVERDO SEAS IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW...THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
NON OCEAN WATERS SHOULD OBSERVE TRANQUIL SEAS THROUGH MUCH IF NOT
ALL OF THE MON THROUGH THU PERIOD.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SLOW MOVING STORMS
ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD RESULT IN LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY PRODUCE LOCAL URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE
FLOODING THURSDAY.
&&
.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 6 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
EVENING FOR NYZ075-080-081-178-179.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/PW
NEAR TERM...MPS
SHORT TERM...BC
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...NV
MARINE...BC/PW
HYDROLOGY...BC/PW
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ALBANY NY
126 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS
MORNING...AS A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW
INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION...HOWEVER
ISOLATED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 126 AM EDT...A WARM FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING E/NE OF THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND. A MID LEVEL SHORT-WAVE IN
THE NW FLOW ALOFT...AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC COLD FRONT NEAR THE ERN
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO FOCUS SHOWERS AND ISOLD-SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO INTO CNTRL-NRN NY. THE
TREND WILL BE FOR THE THUNDERSTORMS TO WEAKEN IN THE MORE STABLE
AIR MASS OVER THE ALY FCST AREA. HIGHEST POPS REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION...WITH LOW AND SLIGHT CHC VALUES TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST. SHOWALTER VALUES CONTINUE TO BE 0 TO -2C FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT/I-90 CORRIDOR NORTH. HAVE KEPT CHANCES OF THUNDER
UNTIL 06Z OR SO...AND THEN TAPERED TO SLIGHT CHC VALUES. THE
GENERAL TREND FROM THE LATEST HIRES WRF BAS REF PRODUCT...AND THE
LATEST HRRR IS FOR THE ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN BTWN 07Z-10Z. HAVE UPPED
TEMPS SLIGHTLY AS THE FCST AREA GETS ESTABLISHED IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH LOWER TO M60S IN MOST LOCATIONS...A FEW U60S IN THE
HUDSON RIVER VALLEY/CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND U50S OVER THE HIGHER
PEAKS.
SUNDAY...SEVERAL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THIS SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE
QUITE SLOW TO EXIT ALL OF OUR REGION. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
SYNOPTIC FLOW REGIME ALOFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY...SOME SUBSIDENCE
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT SHORT WAVE SHOULD LIMIT COVERAGE
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BY AFTERNOON THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CHANGE AS THOSE HIGHER MOISTURE PROFILES ALONG WITH SOME
STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES />6 C/KM/ AND SBCAPES BETWEEN 1-2K
J/KG AND SHOWALTERS WELL INTO THE NEGATIVE TERRITORY FOR MORE
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. WHILE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW...NOT
TOO MUCH ORGANIZATION IS EXPECTED. SO SCATTERED CONVECTION THAT
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB WELL INTO THE 70S
AND SOME LOW-MID 80S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE BUILDING HEAT AND HUMIDITY AS 500 HPA
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AND A
500 HPA CUT OFF DIVES SE WELL TO OUR NE IN QB. WHILE THIS SYSTEMS
MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE WELL TO THE NE OF FCA..ITS PRESENCE WILL MAKE
FOR A RATHER SHARP 500HPA RIDGE TROF PATTERN...AND SOME SHORT WVS
PASSING JUST NORTH OR NR RGN IN THE ENSUING NW FLOW.
AT THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE GRTLKS IN THE ACVA
EAST OF THE RIDGE...THEN SHIFT TO THE SEABOARD. THE AIR WILL BE
WARMING N THE SUBSIDENCE...BUT THE NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE HOTTEST
AIR AT BAY JUST TO OUR WEST UNTIL TUES AFTN.
TD IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 60S...AFTN HIGHS MON WILL BE IN
THE MID 80S TO NR 90...AND LOW 90S TUE...MINS WILL GEN BE IN THE
60S.
ISOLD TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AS A
COMBINATION OF WK IMPULSES...ELEVATED TRRN...DIURNAL HEATING AND
WK BOUNDARIES CONTRIBUTE TO A MAINLY AFTN AND EVNG ISOLD TSTM
THREAT.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE HEAT IS ON. 500HPA RIDGE CRESTS OVR RGN WED INTO THU. WED THE
SFC HIGH WILL SETTLE ALONG THE ATLC COAST...CENTERED OVER THE
CAROLINA PIEDMONT. THE FCA WILL BE ENTIRELY IN THE WARMEST AIR AS
1000-500 DM THICKNESS VALUES INCR TO 576+. WITH BEST SUBSIDENCE
OVER FCA...AFTN TSTM THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL TO NIL. MAX TEMPS WILL
REACH LOW IN MID 90S IN VLYS...MID TO UPPER 80S IN HIR TRRN.
WED NT WILL BE A WARM HUMID NIGHT AS AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE...BUT
CHANGE IS SETTING UP. THU THE 500 HPA RIDGE AXIS MVS E OF FCA. A
CUTOFF(GFS/ECMWF)...SHORT WV(GEM)...MOVES INTO ONTARIO...HWVR THIS
SYSTEM IS CONSIDERABLY FURTHER N THAN PVS MDL RUNS.
IN ANY CASE IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE E GRTLKS THU
AFTN...POSSIBLY SET UP A PREFRONTAL TROF...AND ANOTHER HOT DAY
THAT WILL END WITH A CHC FOR STRONG TSTMS. THE MDLS BEGIN TO HAVE
TIMING ISSUES WITH THE MOISTURE AND PREFRONTAL TROF TIMING...BUT
NONE BRING THE FRONT THROUGH TIL THUR NT. HPC FOLLOWS THIS TIMING
AS WELL AND THREAT OF TSTMS WILL PERSIST INTO THU EVNG.
FRIDAY THE 500 HPA CUT OFF IS OVER N QB EAST OF JAMES BAY...AND
THE CDFNT HAS MOVED S TO THE I95 CORRIDOR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO NY/NEW END FM THE MIDWEST...WITH TEMPS RETURNING TO
NORMAL TO START THE WEEKEND. CAA IS WEAKER THAN PVS RUNS...AS THE
500HPA CUTOFF IS FURTHER N. THE VERY WARM AIR ISN`T FAR TO OUR
SOUTH AT THE END OF THE FCST. TEMPS WILL STILL MAKE THE 80S IN
MOST AREAS WITH UPER 70S OVER HIR TRRN.
WILL GENERALLY POPULATE WITH HPC...MAKING SOME MODEST TIMING
CHANGES TO NUDGE IT BASED ON 12UTC ECMWF.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHRA ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH TERMINALS NOW IS LIGHT AND WARRANTS
NO MORE THE VCSH IN VFR CONDITIONS.
NEXT BATCH OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE IMPACTING TERMINALS TONIGHT.
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION REFLECTED IN TAFS FUNCTION OF HRRR
FORECAST. SHRA ACTIVITY PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KGFL
KALB AND KPSF...WHILE AT KPOU ALLOW FOR MVFR IN BR. DEGREE OF
CLEARING TOWARD DAWN IN AREAS THAT GET RAIN WILL DETERMINE IF AND
TO WHAT DEGREE IFR BR/FG CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW...HAVE
LIMITED IFR BR TO KPSF ONLY. INTO TOMORROW MAINTAIN VCSH AT ALL
TERMINALS...ALTHOUGH BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA LOOK TO BE AT KPSF AND
KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...FG...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT:NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY:MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO
NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY. IT WILL BRING AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES...AND SETTLE TO THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY. IT WILL ALLOW INCREASINGLY
HOT AND HUMID AIR TO BUILD INTO THE REGION HOWEVER MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...FALL
TO 55 TO 65 PERCENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT IT WILL
INCREASE AGAIN TO NEAR 100 PERCENT WITH AREAS OF FOG.
MONDAY AFTERNOON IT WILL FALL TO 45 TO 55 PERCENT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THEY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AROUND 5
MPH SUNDAY AND WESTERLY 5 TO 10 MPH MONDAY.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A WEAKENING WARM FRONT WILL FOCUS THEM THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND AND WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.5 INCHES SOME STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH
LOCALIZED IN BANK RISES.
IT WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT.
FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.
&&
.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...
JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949
JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949
NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...OKEEFE/SNYDER/WASULA
NEAR TERM...BGM/OKEEFE/WASULA
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...OKEEFE
FIRE WEATHER...SNYDER
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER
CLIMATE...IAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE IN
OUR REGION TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR FRIDAY AND
THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE ITS HOLD ON THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT. AS OF 9 PM, THERE WERE ONLY A HANDFUL OF
SHOWERS LEFT ON RADAR AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE WITH THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY. WITHOUT AN ORGANIZED LIFTING
MECHANISM IN PLACE, POPS WERE LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS IN AN
UPDATE EARLIER THIS EVENING. BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND
THE LATEST HRRR REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS, TRIED TO CONFINE ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND FROM ABOUT
I-76/I-195 NORTHWARD UP TO I-78. THERE COULD ALSO BE A SHOWER OR
TWO THIS EVENING IN THE LOWER DELMARVA (WHERE THE AIRMASS IS
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AND MOIST). FOR THE OVERNIGHT, THERE STILL
MAY BE AN ISOLATED POP UP SHOWER OR STORM, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
10 PERCENT OR LESS.
CLOUD COVER WILL BE VARIABLE THIS EVENING OWING TO DEBRIS LEFTOVER
FROM THE CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GENERALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
MIDNIGHT. FOG AND STRATUS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
ONCE WE BURN OFF ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT MAY FORM DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS WE SHOULD BE LEFT WITH CLEARING SKIES, ALBEIT
SELF DESTRUCTING. A RAPID CU-FIELD SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO THE LOW-90S. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT SO
NO RELIEF IN TERMS OF THE HUMIDITY. SEA AND BAY BREEZES SHOULD
DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND GIVEN THE SOUPINESS OF THE AIR
MASS, THEY MIGHT PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO INITIATE ISOLATED SHOWERS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID
LEVEL LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA ON TUESDAY
NIGHT TO HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MEANDER OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. MID LEVEL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN STATES.
THE HEAT IS FORECAST TO BE ON THE INCREASE FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WE ARE ANTICIPATING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ON BOTH DAYS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
APPROACHING 100 EXCEPT IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN AND IN THE
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST. DEW POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX VALUES IN OUR HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS ALONG
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 90S ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL NOT ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH AT THIS TIME. THE
GUIDELINE CRITERION IS 100. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP A CLOSE WATCH TO
SEE IF THE GUIDANCE BEGINS TO CREEP UPWARD WITH EITHER THE
TEMPERATURE OR DEW POINT FORECAST.
WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY PRECIPITATION FOR TUESDAY NIGHT,
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE LACK OF ANY SUBSTANTIAL
TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH AND PASS THROUGH OUR
REGION DURING THAT PERIOD OF TIME. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT CAUSING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THURSDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. WE WILL CARRY A PRECIPITATION-FREE
FORECAST ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.
EVEN WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGHING, IT APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR
WEATHER WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM. HOWEVER, HUMIDITY LEVEL SHOULD
DROP A BIT FROM THOSE EXPECTED DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
MONDAY AND WE WILL MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THAT PERIOD OF TIME.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN STATIONARY IN VC OF TTN/ABE AT 01Z. THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. DRY FOR ALL
TERMINALS TNGT. VFR AT LEAST THRU 06Z.
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE LATEST LAMP, HRRR, AND TIME-LAGGED SREF
GUIDANCE PROVIDED MORE SUPPORT FOR LOW CLOUDS THAN RADIATIONAL FOG.
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN THE 15 KT SWLY FLOW AIDING IN MODEST
MOISTURE/WARM AIR ADVECTION AT THE TOP OF THE NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY
LAYER. THIS WOULD MOST LIKELY RESULT IN A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS
BETWEEN 1500-3000 FT AFTER 06Z AND BEFORE 14Z. LOW CONFIDENCE IN IFR
TONIGHT, THOUGH SOME OUTLIER GUIDANCE IS INDICATING JUST THAT.
TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WE SHOULD LOSE ANY LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BY
MID MORNING LEAVING US WITH A SCATTERED 3-5 KFT CU FIELD. SHOWER
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH MIV/ACY
HAVING BETTER CHANCES, BUT STILL TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.
LOCAL SEA/BAY BREEZES MAY OCCUR AT ACY/MIV/ILG BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR. HOWEVER, THE
HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY RESULT IN SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING LOW CLOUDS, HAZE AND FOG.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY RESULT IN MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES.
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
SUB-SCA CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY UNDER PROLONGED SOUTHERLY
FLOW. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS. SEAS WILL ALSO BE ON THE DOWNWARD
TREND RUNNING CLOSER TO 2-3 FEET THROUGH TUESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.
&&
.RIP CURRENTS...
A MEDIUM TO LONG PERIOD (AROUND 10 SECONDS) SWELL OUT OF THE E-SE
WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY. SLY WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KT AND
2-3 FT WAVES ARE FORECAST IN THE SURFACE ZONE. GIVEN SIMILARCONDITIONS
TO TODAY`S MODERATE RISK AND THE INFLUENCE OF AN APPROACHING FULL
MOON LATER IN THE WEEK, TOOK A CAUTIOUS APPROACH AND WENT WITH A
MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLEIN
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION
OVER THE LENGTH OF CANADA. A DEEP TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANCHORED BY CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE FLOW THEN RIDGES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH AROUND A CLOSED LOW
FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE IS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN
FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN A NORTH/NE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CIRCULATION. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
DEFINED...AND WE FIND A WEAK/POORLY DEFINED DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SPINNING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST/EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...HOWEVER THE DRIEST AIR IS STAYING NORTH/NW
OF OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...GENERALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING APPEARED TO BE
ON THE EDGE OF THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH A MOIST
PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 400MB...AND A PW VALUE OF 2.15". THIS VALUE
IS UP AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR LATE JULY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE MOIST PROFILE COMES WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROP. ONE OF THE PARAMETERS WE GIVE A
QUICK LOOK AT WHEN INITIALLY ANALYZING A SOUNDING PROFILE DURING
THE SUMMER FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE 500MB TEMPS. THE 500MB
TEMP THIS MORNING IS MEASURED AT -4.5C. THIS IS VERY WARM...EVEN
FOR MID SUMMER AND REPRESENT A VALUE OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
JULY. THIS SOUNDING IS ONE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS...BUT OF LOW SEVERE THREAT. THE WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAKER UPDRAFT...KEEP HAIL
AND PRECIP LOADING AT A MINIMUM...AND IN FACT...OVERALL LIGHTING
COUNTS SHOULD BE LOW THE REST OF TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE HIGHER
ALTITUDE OF MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS.
AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE A VERY WEAK SURFACE NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE SPIN SEEN WITH THE RADAR RETURN
IS MORE LIKELY A COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE
SOLUTION YOU USE...THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...BUT AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A VERY
SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST
NIGHT...MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE NORTH
OF TAMPA BAY WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...OR BE PUSHED OFFSHORE.
THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT (AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT)
WILL BE ALONG THE SUNCOAST COUNTIES WITH THE CONVERGENT ONSHORE
FLOW COMPONENT...AND WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE.
FOR MONDAY...SURFACE LOW DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL
BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS OCCURS THE MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE COMPONENT
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
END RESULT IS ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
AMOUNTS WHERE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONGEAL OFF THE GULF.
BASED ON WHAT HAS FALLEN TODAY AND CONTINUED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TO LEE COUNTY INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
LACK OF ORGANIZED RAINFALL TODAY OVER THE INTERIOR AND LESS CHANCE
OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS AWAY FROM THE COASTAL ZONES WILL
ALLOW US TO DROP THE FLOOD WATCH FOR POLK...HARDEE...AND DESOTO
COUNTIES WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. STILL APPEARS AS THOUGH OUR
FAR NORTHERN ZONES UP TOWARD LEVY COUNTY WILL NOT GET INTO A
DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE EVENTUAL LATE DAY
LOW POSITION...HOWEVER THE COLUMN WILL STILL BE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE LEADING TO SCT-NMRS DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY)...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WILL DE-AMPLIFY AND
SHIFT WEST THROUGH THE WEEK AS A TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN STATES.
THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE RATHER SLOW TO EVOLVE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SUBTROPICAL RIDGING OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND A STALLED
SURFACE TROUGH HANGING AROUND NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...A DEVELOPING CUTOFF
LOW WILL LINGER AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY AND
LIFT NORTH TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FROM ABOUT TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD. NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WILL SEE A BIT
MORE VARIABLE (AND HARDER TO PREDICT) LOW LEVEL FLOW PATTERN TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY...THEN WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS
THE LOW LIFTS NORTH. AS THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW CONTINUES TO HANG
AROUND...ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO PEAK
IN THE 2 TO 2.25 INCH RANGE EACH DAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ADDING MORE RAINFALL TO ALREADY SWOLLEN RIVER BASINS AND
POTENTIALLY PROLONGING THE FLOOD THREAT.
&&
.AVIATION...
NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN THE ALL THE TERMINAL FORECASTS
THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR
CIGS/VIS WILL IMPACT EACH TERMINAL AS THE STORM ROLL PAST. DEEPER
INTO THE EVENING...MUCH OF THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES AFTER MIDNIGHT OF ANY RESTRICTIONS WILL BE
DOWN TOWARD KFMY/KRSW WHERE SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE TO MIGRATE OFF
THE GULF.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARD APALACHEE BAY DURING
MONDAY. WINDS AROUND THIS CIRCULATION WILL GENERALLY GIVE AN
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. DURING MONDAY...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OUR FORECAST WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY. A
GENERAL WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST
WATERS FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES
WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO
LEE COUNTY UNTIL 8 AM ON MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH RAIN IN MANY AREAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS TO DEVELOP TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. WITH PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND STORMS STREAMING IN FROM
THE GULF OVER LEE COUNTY...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
22Z TODAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
COASTAL AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.
HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHWEST PASCO COUNTY HAS CAUSED THE ANCLOTE
RIVER AT ELFERS TO RISE TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE. THE RIVER CRESTED
THIS AFTERNOON AT 23.5 FEET AND IS CURRENTLY DROPPING. THIS RIVER
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN CASE OF ANY MORE RAINFALL OVER THE AREA
OR UPSTREAM FOR RUNOFF. IF RAINFALL HOLDS OFF IN THE AREA...THE
RIVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE AND IS EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE SHIFTED
SOUTH...THE MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK HAS REACHED
ACTION STAGE THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH FLOOD STAGE
AT THIS TIME. THE LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT WIMAUMA IS EXPECTED TO GO
ABOVE ACTION STAGE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO RISE
ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME. AS WITH ALL RIVERS DURING THE RAINY
SEASON...WE WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE SITUATION FOR RUNOFF FROM HEAVY
RAINS CAUSING ANY FURTHER RISE IN THE WATERS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 78 88 78 87 / 50 70 40 60
FMY 77 88 78 90 / 70 80 30 60
GIF 75 88 76 89 / 50 70 30 50
SRQ 77 86 78 88 / 70 80 40 60
BKV 75 89 75 89 / 50 70 30 60
SPG 78 87 78 88 / 50 70 50 60
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WX...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM...FLEMING
HYDROLOGY...WYNN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
930 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION... THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BURN OFF WITHIN THE
HOUR. THE SHOWERS THAT STRETCHED FROM FLAGLER COUNTY TO NORTH LAKE
COUNTY WERE SLOWLY DISSIPATING PER LATEST RADAR LOOP. GIVEN THE
MOIST ATMOSPHERE...2.15 INCHES AND 2.17 INCHES PER THE 12Z/8AM TAMPA
AND CAPE CANAVERAL SOUNDINGS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON. STORM/SHOWER MOTION GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY
SEA BREEZES WILL BE FROM AROUND CAPE CANAVERAL NORTH WHERE THERE IS
A FORECAST FOR MORE OF A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW. SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW...THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON IF IT
DEVELOPS AT ALL.
GRID CLEANING AND WILL LOOK AT LATEST SHORT RANGE WIND FORECASTS
THEN UPDATE AS NECESSARY.
.AVIATION...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
THRU 27/12...Z STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE SWRLY WINDS SOUTH KISM-KTIX...NERLY WINDS
NORTH OF IT. CHC MVFR SHRAS E OF KVRB-KOBE THRU 26/12Z...ALL SITES
BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z. BTWN 26/16Z-26/24Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR
TSRAS INTERIOR SITES WITH A SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND
G35KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES. AFT 27/00Z-
27/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES. AFT
27/04Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS.
.MARINE...PREVIOUS MARINE DISCUSSION
THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF
SEBASTIAN INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP
SEAS AOB 2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU
MIDDAY DUE TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS
WILL LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE
ONSHORE FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING
SHRAS/TSRAS WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE
HAZARD TODAY.
PREVIOUS AFD
TODAY/TONIGHT...
A RATHER COMPLEX WX PATTERN TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY
DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRAPPED BTWN A DEEP LYR
ANTICYCLONE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...AND THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER
ANTILLES. TROF AXIS MARKED BY SWRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND NERLY FLOW NORTH OF IT. EVNG SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLEAR FROPA AT
KJAX WITH NE WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
ABV H70...KTBW/KXMR SHOW THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THEM WITH LIGHT
W/SW FLOW THRU H100-H70 AND A NEARLY SATURATED H100-H50 LYR.
SUFFICIENT LOW LCL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA WITH PWAT
VALUES BTWN 2.1"-2.2". RAP ANALYSIS BACKS THIS UP WITH H100-H70 MEAN
RH AOA 90PCT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA AND H85-H50 MEAN
RH BTWN 70-85PCT OVER CENTRAL FL...DECREASING TO AOB 40PCT N OF THE
BIG BEND.
WEAK PGRAD ALONG AND N OF THE FRNTL BNDRY MARKED BY LIGHT W/SW FLOW
THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON THE USAF 915 HZ PROFILER WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PGRAD ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. EVEN SO...LIMITED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE RULE ONCE
AGAIN AS WARM MID LVL TEMPS LIMIT DEEP LYR THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY: H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-9C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -5C ARE YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.0-5.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE
H85-H70 WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMP
TRIGGERS ARE REACHED (M80S-L90S)...WHICH WILL LEAVE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD UP SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO BECOME
EXPLOSIVE.
DESPITE THE HI MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF...HRRR AND
LCL WRF MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC THAN THE 26/00Z MAV POPS. TROF
AXIS OVERHEAD HAS WEAKENED THE MID LVL STEERING WINDS...RESULTING IN
A NOTEWORTHY VORT MIN OVER E CENTRAL FL. UPR LVLS ARE LARGELY
NEUTRAL AS WELL WITH NO SIG JET STREAKS IN THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...
WHILE WEAK...GFS DOES INDICATE AN ERLY H85-H50 STEERING COMPONENT
THAT WOULD TEND TO FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN PENINSULA WILL
GO WITH 60/70 POPS INTERIOR AND 50 POPS ALNG THE COAST...BCMG 30-
40PCT CHC OVERNIGHT. THREAT FOR LCL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS RECENT
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED ERC VALUES BLO 20 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BULK OF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFT PEAK HEATING HRS...BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
U80S/L90S...ESP COASTAL REGIONS FROM THE CAPE NWD DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S AREAWIDE SUGGEST ABV AVG MIN TEMPS
IN THE M/U70.
MON-WED...
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY ELONGATES AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH
A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK
SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES...ANYWHERE FROM
THE EASTERN GULF TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BUT THESE FEATURES ARE ALL
FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND WEAK. GENERALLY TREND WILL BE FOR THE BOUNDARY
TO MEANDER AROUND TAMPA/ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD
DRIFT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE...WILL BE LOWER IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS. DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FROM
OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTHWARDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK CURRENTLY
ON MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 60-70% AND THEN LOWER COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 40-60% AS SOME OVERALL DRYING WORKS INTO
THE AREA AND THE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT.
THU-SAT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGMIDH THE FEATURE OVERALL
WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...TAKING WITH
IT THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG IT. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
OFFSET BY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL BRING ANY
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. POPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT 40-50%.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE
SWRLY WINDS SOUTH KISM-KTIX...NERLY WINDS NORTH OF IT. CHC MVFR
SHRAS E OF KVRB-KOBE THRU 26/12Z...ALL SITES BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z.
BTWN 26/16Z-26/24Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS INTERIOR SITES
WITH A SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND G35KTS.MID..SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD
IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES. AFT 27/00Z-27/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC
IFR TSRAS ALL SITES. AFT 27/04Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU MIDDAY DUE
TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS WILL
LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING SHRAS/TSRAS
WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD TODAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO LATE WEEK. PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER MOST OFMID THE WEEK...KEEPING
WINDS EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL
RUNS SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD EVEN THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS BY
THURSDAY. CHOPPY SEAS 2-3FT...OCCASIONALLY UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 76 89 74 / 50 30 60 40
MCO 89 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 40
MLB 86 75 91 76 / 50 30 60 40
VRB 88 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
LEE 89 76 90 77 / 60 40 70 40
SFB 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
ORL 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
FPR 88 77 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
MID
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
928 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
13Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOW NORTHERN STREAM FLOW
WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK CONFIGURATION
OVER THE LENGTH OF CANADA. A DEEP TROUGH DIPS DOWN INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANCHORED BY CLOSED LOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA.
THE FLOW THEN RIDGES UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS/CENTRAL
CANADIAN PROVINCES BEFORE DROPPING BACK SOUTH AROUND A CLOSED LOW
FEATURE OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. THE CENTRAL RIDGE IS EXTENDING
NORTH FROM LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY. THIS CONFIGURATION HAS BEEN VERY STUBBORN
FOR SOME TIME NOW...AND PLACES OUR FORECAST AREA WITHIN A NORTH/NE
HIGH LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
CIRCULATION. IN THE MID-LEVELS THE FLOW BECOMES MUCH LESS
DEFINED...AND WE FIND A WEAK/POORLY DEFINED DISTURBANCE/VORTICITY
MAXIMUM SPINNING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST/EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. WV IMAGERY SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT HAS PENETRATED INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...HOWEVER THE DRIEST AIR IS STAYING NORTH/NW
OF OUR REGION. DEEPER MOISTURE REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...GENERALLY FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REST OF THE PENINSULA. KTBW 12Z SOUNDING APPEARED TO BE
ON THE EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT...WITH A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGH ABOUT 400MB...AND A PW VALUE OF 2.15". THIS VALUE IS UP
AROUND THE 90TH PERCENTILE OF PWATS FOR LATE JULY. NOT
SURPRISINGLY...THE MOIST PROFILE COMES WITH UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES THROUGH THE LOWER/MID TROP. ONE OF THE PARAMETERS WE GIVE A
QUICK LOOK AT WHEN INITIALLY ANALYZING A SOUNDING PROFILE DURING
THE SUMMER FOR CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THE 500MB TEMPS. THE 500MB
TEMP THIS MORNING IS MEASURED AT -4.5C. THIS IS VERY WARM...EVEN
FOR MID SUMMER AND REPRESENT A VALUE OF THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR
JULY. THIS SOUNDING IS ONE INDICATIVE OF HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL
WITH ANY CONVECTIVE STORMS...BUT OF LOW SEVERE THREAT. THE WEAK
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY WEAKER UPDRAFT...KEEP HAIL
AND PRECIP LOADING AT A MINIMUM...AND IN FACT...OVERALL LIGHTING
COUNTS SHOULD BE LOW TODAY AS WELL DUE TO THE HIGHER ALTITUDE OF
MIXED PHASE HYDROMETEORS.
AT THE SURFACE...QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF AND NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. MOST MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE A VERY WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY...HOWEVER
USING SURFACE OBS...IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO ANALYZE EXACTLY WHERE
THIS FEATURE IS. THE GENERAL LARGE SCALE SPIN SEEN WITH THE RADAR
RETURNS IS MUCH MORE LIKELY A COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. SPEAKING OF RADAR...AS OF MID MORNING...THE GREATEST
SHOWER COVERAGE IS ALONG THE SUNCOAST TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY.
CATEGORICAL POPS ARE IN PLACE AND HIGH RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR THESE COASTAL SOUTHERN ZONES THROUGH THE DAY.
ELSEWHERE...JUST A FEW MORE WIDELY SCT SHOWERS ARE BEGIN SAMPLED.
HOWEVER...WITH DIURNAL HEATING UNDERWAY...PLENTY OF HIGH SOIL
MOISTURE AND COLUMN MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...MORE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE BREAKING OUT. ALTHOUGH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL AREAS SEEN IN PREVIOUS DAYS ARE NOT EXPECTED...HIGH RAIN
CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR EVERYONE THIS AFTERNOON. SINCE WE
HAVE SEEN SO MUCH RAIN IN MANY PLACES THE PAST 72 HOURS...AND SLOW
MOVING HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...THE FLOOD
WATCH REMAIN UP UNDER THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILES...FROM
PASCO/POLK COUNTIES SOUTHWARD.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CLOUDY/SHOWERY SKIES ALONG THE COASTAL
AREAS OF THE SUNCOAST...A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS ARE BEING OVER THE
REST OF THE AREA THIS MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS SUN IS DECEPTIVE
AS IT WILL ONLY HELP TO FUEL THE ENERGY FOR MORE NUMEROUS SHOWER
DEVELOPMENT BY THE TIME WE REACH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES
NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE
SOLUTION YOU USE...THE WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION/LOW MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
NORTHWARD...BUT AN ENSEMBLE MEAN WOULD SUGGEST A VERY SLOW MOVEMENT
OF THIS FEATURE THROUGH MONDAY. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TO THE NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WITHIN A
FEW HOURS OF SUNSET...OR BE PUSHED OFFSHORE. THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES OVERNIGHT (AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT) WILL BE ALONG THE
SUNCOAST COUNTIES WITH THE CONVERGENT ONSHORE FLOW COMPONENT...AND
WITHIN THE DEEPEST MOISTURE PROFILE.
FOR MONDAY...SURFACE LOW DRIFTS VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FL
BIG BEND REGION. AS THIS OCCURS THE MORE FAVORABLE ONSHORE COMPONENT
FOR ORGANIZED SHOWERS WILL SHIFT OR EXPAND NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE
END RESULT IS ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNT
WHERE MESO-SCALE CONVECTIVE BANDS CONGEAL OFF THE GULF. WILL CLOSELY
MONITOR THE 12Z GUIDANCE PACKAGE AND DETERMINE IF AN EXTENSION OF
THE FLOOD WATCH FURTHER IN TIME PAST 00Z THIS EVENING MAY BE
APPROPRIATE. THE SOILS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ARE QUITE
SATURATED...AND ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH RAINFALL POTENTIAL COULD
CERTAINLY POSE A CONTINUED CONCERN. OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES UP TOWARD
LEVY COUNTY MAY NOT GET INTO A DEFINED ONSHORE FLOW IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE EVENTUAL LATE DAY LOW POSITION...HOWEVER THEIR
COLUMN WILL STILL BE MOIST AND UNSTABLE LEADING TO SCT-NMRS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...A STRONG U/L RIDGE WILL BE
LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY WILL
RETROGRADE TO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAK U/L
TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI STATIONARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
LIFT GRADUALLY NORTH THROUGH THE WEEK.
A NORTHERN STREAM S/W DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE SOUTHERN EXTENT SINKING DOWN TO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA REINFORCING THE TROUGH SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
NORTH FLORIDA.
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH PCPW VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...WITH A WEDGE OF DRIER AIR ALOFT
ADVECTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FORECAST AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT MOVING WEST OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY...SUPPRESSING THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL FINALLY RETURN TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS LATE IN THE WEEK WITH
PCPW VALUES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 1.75 TO 2 INCH RANGE.
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TUESDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION WILL ALLOW
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLY IN THE MORNING SPREADING OVER THE COASTAL
COUNTIES DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...AND THE INTERIOR
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. CONTINUED THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
WITH DRIER AIR ALOFT ADVECTING OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE.
WARM AIR ALOFT WILL HOLD OVER THE REGION HOWEVER DRIER AIR ALOFT MAY
ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS.
BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL PROMOTE SCATTERED MORNING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...SPREADING INLAND AND INCREASING
IN AREAL COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB BACK TO NEAR CLIMATIC NORMALS...
WHILE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OFF THE WARM WATERS OF THE EASTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO CREATE ABOVE NORMAL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH
VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KSRQ/KPGD/KFMY/KRSW THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH GENERALLY PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS.
FURTHER NORTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE TAMPA BAY
TERMINALS THROUGH LATE MORNING...BUT WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPING STORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS VFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE THE RULE...HOWEVER THE THREAT OF ON AND OFF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE TAF PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR TAMPA BAY WILL REMAIN STATIONARY TODAY
AND THEN SLOWLY MIGRATE NORTHWARD TOWARD APALACHEE BAY DURING
MONDAY. WINDS AROUND THIS CIRCULATION WILL GENERALLY GIVE AN
OFFSHORE NORTHEAST FLOW NORTH OF TAMPA BAY AND AN ONSHORE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY. DURING MONDAY...THE
WESTERLY FLOW WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD WITH THE SURFACE LOW TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OUR FORECAST WATERS BY THE END OF THE DAY. A GENERAL
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST WATERS
FOR TUESDAY. EXPECT NMRS SHOWERS AND STORMS TO STAY IN THE
FORECAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS TO COME.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER THAN CLIMO RAIN CHANCES
WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE WEEK. RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
CRITICAL VALUES.
FOG POTENTIAL...NO SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG OR VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT TODAY FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTH TO LEE COUNTY...AND FOR THE INTERIOR COUNTIES OF
POLK...HARDEE...AND DESOTO. DUE TO HEAVY RAIN THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS...IT WILL TAKE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS RAIN IN MANY AREAS FOR
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OF STREETS AND URBAN AREAS TO DEVELOP TODAY.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD SPREAD INLAND AND NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OF
1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE WATCH AREA...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.
A FLOOD WARNING FOR MODERATE RIVER FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS...AND THIS RIVER HAS SEEN SIGNIFICANT
RISES ALREADY TODAY. IF HEAVY RAIN BECOMES CONCENTRATED IN OTHER
RIVER BASINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...ADDITIONAL RIVER
FLOODING MAY DEVELOP. THE MOST AT RISK RIVERS FOR FLOODING TO
DEVELOP ARE THE ALAFIA...LITTLE MANATEE...PEACE...AND MYAKKA
RIVERS AS WELL AS CYPRESS CREEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 77 85 79 / 70 50 60 30
FMY 86 77 86 78 / 100 70 70 30
GIF 89 76 85 75 / 70 40 70 30
SRQ 87 77 85 79 / 70 60 70 40
BKV 90 74 85 76 / 70 40 70 30
SPG 88 77 84 80 / 70 50 70 40
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL
MANATEE-COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-DESOTO-HARDEE-
INLAND CHARLOTTE-INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-
INLAND MANATEE-INLAND PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS-
POLK.
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL
CHARLOTTE-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL SARASOTA.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...MROCZKA
LONG TERM/HYDROLOGY...OGLESBY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
909 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
12Z SOUNDING SHOWED DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2.25 INCHES...WHICH IS ONLY A
COUPLE HUNDREDTHS AWAY FROM THE MAXIMUM PWAT FOR THE DATE. VERY
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AROUND 16.6KFT WILL PROMOTE WARM RAIN
PROCESSES AND HIGH RAINFALL RATES. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN NEAR TAMPA TODAY...WITH A BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THIS WILL PROVIDE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND CONTINUED MOISTURE
FLOWING INTO THE REGION. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE GULF COAST WHERE SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS
GREATEST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH STREET FLOODING AND PONDING OF
LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR REGIONS WHERE
TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SETS UP.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KAPF...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY REMAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO KEPT VCSH OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF ANY CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTH OF I75. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE SFC LOW IS STILL FAIRLY
BROAD, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CONTRACT AND CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK THE EAST FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO
THE MOST CURRENT MODELS. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A 500MB LOW PARKED OVER
IT TODAY. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, MOST OF THE INDICES
ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, EXCEPT FOR THE PWATS, WHICH WERE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. THE SFC BASED CAPE WAS AROUND 800J, THE LAPSE RATES
WERE LESS THAN 6C/KM AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS. NCAPE WAS ONLY .07.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS OVER 15K FT. THE 500MB TEMP WAS BETWEEN -6
AND -5C. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN JUST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE GULF COAST,
SOUTH OF NAPLES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY, THE 500MB TEMP
STAYS RIGHT AROUND -5.5C. THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYS BETWEEN 15K AND
16K FT. THE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE 6C/KM OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS, IMMOKALEE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CAPE, AND THAT IS ONLY AROUND 1100J, FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT, THE PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. NCAPE IS .1 OR LESS. THE MBE VELOCITY IS SHOWING BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. TODAY REALLY LOOKS MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER DAY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. BUT, THE SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY, GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. THEY ALSO INDICATE THERE
COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. BUT ALONG THE COAST, THEY MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLOODING IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
LAST NIGHT, WHICH SHOWED NEARLY A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FOR THE TYPE OF PATTERN FOR TODAY, IT
DOES SHOW THE GULF COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT ALSO SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
COAST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IT SHOWS THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS IN WAVES TODAY. AGAIN, THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BEGIN SOMETIME AROUND 2 TO 3PM, AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP AFT 14Z, TSRA IS AGAIN
EXPECTED NEAR ALL TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GULF MAY SEE SOME WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT OFFSHORE. THE ATLANTIC WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEY MAY BE ELEVATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 92 77 / 70 50 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 91 79 / 60 40 40 10
MIAMI 88 77 92 79 / 60 30 40 10
NAPLES 85 79 88 79 / 100 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....13/SI
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING OFF THE COAST OF TAMPA TODAY WILL
PROVIDE DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...LEADING TO NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT
KAPF...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15
KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS MAY REMAIN WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...SO KEPT VCSH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF ANY CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTH OF I75. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE SFC LOW IS STILL FAIRLY
BROAD, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CONTRACT AND CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK THE EAST FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO
THE MOST CURRENT MODELS. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A 500MB LOW PARKED OVER
IT TODAY. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, MOST OF THE INDICES
ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, EXCEPT FOR THE PWATS, WHICH WERE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. THE SFC BASED CAPE WAS AROUND 800J, THE LAPSE RATES
WERE LESS THAN 6C/KM AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS. NCAPE WAS ONLY .07.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS OVER 15K FT. THE 500MB TEMP WAS BETWEEN -6
AND -5C. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN JUST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE GULF COAST,
SOUTH OF NAPLES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY, THE 500MB TEMP
STAYS RIGHT AROUND -5.5C. THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYS BETWEEN 15K AND
16K FT. THE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE 6C/KM OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS, IMMOKALEE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CAPE, AND THAT IS ONLY AROUND 1100J, FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT, THE PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. NCAPE IS .1 OR LESS. THE MBE VELOCITY IS SHOWING BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. TODAY REALLY LOOKS MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER DAY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. BUT, THE SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY, GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. THEY ALSO INDICATE THERE
COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. BUT ALONG THE COAST, THEY MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLOODING IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
LAST NIGHT, WHICH SHOWED NEARLY A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FOR THE TYPE OF PATTERN FOR TODAY, IT
DOES SHOW THE GULF COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT ALSO SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
COAST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IT SHOWS THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS IN WAVES TODAY. AGAIN, THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BEGIN SOMETIME AROUND 2 TO 3PM, AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP AFT 14Z, TSRA IS AGAIN
EXPECTED NEAR ALL TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GULF MAY SEE SOME WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT OFFSHORE. THE ATLANTIC WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEY MAY BE ELEVATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 92 77 / 70 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 40 10
MIAMI 88 77 92 79 / 60 20 40 10
NAPLES 85 79 88 79 / 100 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
425 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY/TONIGHT...
A RATHER COMPLEX WX PATTERN TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY
DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL BE TRAPPED BTWN A DEEP LYR
ANTICYCLONE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE CAROLINA COAST ACRS THE MID
SOUTH...AND THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE SRN BAHAMAS/GREATER
ANTILLES. TROF AXIS MARKED BY SWRLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
AND NERLY FLOW NORTH OF IT. EVNG SOUNDINGS SHOW A CLEAR FROPA AT
KJAX WITH NE WINDS THRU THE H100-H70 LYR AND SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER AIR
ABV H70...KTBW/KXMR SHOW THE FRONT STILL NORTH OF THEM WITH LIGHT
W/SW FLOW THRU H100-H70 AND A NEARLY SATURATED H100-H50 LYR.
SUFFICIENT LOW LCL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE PENINSULA WITH PWAT
VALUES BTWN 2.1"-2.2". RAP ANALYSIS BACKS THIS UP WITH H100-H70 MEAN
RH AOA 90PCT OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL/NRN PENINSULA AND H85-H50 MEAN
RH BTWN 70-85PCT OVER CENTRAL FL...DECREASING TO AOB 40PCT N OF THE
BIG BEND.
WEAK PGRAD ALONG AND N OF THE FRNTL BNDRY MARKED BY LIGHT W/SW FLOW
THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON THE USAF 915 HZ PROFILER WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DVLP N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. PGRAD ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST WILL REMAIN TIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT SEABREEZE
FORMATION. EVEN SO...LIMITED STORM POTENTIAL WILL BE THE RULE ONCE
AGAIN AS WARM MID LVL TEMPS LIMIT DEEP LYR THERMODYNAMIC
INSTABILITY: H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-9C AND H50 TEMPS ARND -5C ARE YIELDING
LAPSE RATES BTWN 5.0-5.5C/KM THRU THE LYR. WEAK LAPSE RATES THRU THE
H85-H70 WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMP
TRIGGERS ARE REACHED (M80S-L90S)...WHICH WILL LEAVE LITTLE
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD UP SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO BECOME
EXPLOSIVE.
DESPITE THE HI MOISTURE POOLING WITHIN THE FRONTAL TROF...HRRR AND
LCL WRF MODELS ARE LESS ENTHUSIASTIC THAN THE 26/00Z MAV POPS. TROF
AXIS OVERHEAD HAS WEAKENED THE MID LVL STEERING WINDS...RESULTING IN
A NOTEWORTHY VORT MIN OVER E CENTRAL FL. UPR LVLS ARE LARGELY
NEUTRAL AS WELL WITH NO SIG JET STREAKS IN THE AREA. FURTHERMORE...
WHILE WEAK...GFS DOES INDICATE AN ERLY H85-H50 STEERING COMPONENT
THAT WOULD TEND TO FOCUS PRECIP OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN PENINSULA WILL
GO WITH 60/70 POPS INTERIOR AND 50 POPS ALNG THE COAST...BCMG 30-
40PCT CHC OVERNIGHT. THREAT FOR LCL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS RECENT
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED ERC VALUES BLO 20 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA.
BULK OF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFT PEAK HEATING HRS...BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE
U80S/L90S...ESP COASTAL REGIONS FROM THE CAPE NWD DUE TO AN ONSHORE
FLOW. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S AREAWIDE SUGGEST ABV AVG MIN TEMPS
IN THE M/U70.
MON-WED...
ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GRADUALLY ELONGATES AND WEAKENS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA WITH
A SIMILAR PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A FEW WEAK
SURFACE LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AT TIMES...ANYWHERE FROM
THE EASTERN GULF TO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC BUT THESE FEATURES ARE ALL
FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND WEAK. GENERALLY TREND WILL BE FOR THE BOUNDARY
TO MEANDER AROUND TAMPA/ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD
DRIFT INTO WEDNESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE...WILL BE LOWER IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIRMASS. DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS BETTER RAIN CHANCES FROM
OSCEOLA/BREVARD SOUTHWARDS. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR THE WEEK CURRENTLY
ON MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 60-70% AND THEN LOWER COVERAGE INTO
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 40-60% AS SOME OVERALL DRYING WORKS INTO
THE AREA AND THE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT.
THU-SAT...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND FL
PENINSULA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THOUGH THE FEATURE OVERALL
WILL BE LESS PRONOUNCED INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHAT`S LEFT OF THE LOW
LEVEL FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS BACK TO THE NORTH AS WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AXIS BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA...TAKING WITH
IT THE DEEPER MOISTURE POOLED ALONG IT. THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL BE
OFFSET BY STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW WHICH WILL BRING ANY
DEVELOPING ACTIVITY BACK TO THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS. POPS LOOK
TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AT 40-50%.
&&
.AVIATION...THRU 27/12Z
STATIONARY FRONTAL BNDRY DRAPED ALONG THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL GENERATE
SWRLY WINDS SOUTH KISM-KTIX...NERLY WINDS NORTH OF IT. CHC MVFR
SHRAS E OF KVRB-KOBE THRU 26/12Z...ALL SITES BTWN 26/12Z-26/16Z.
BTWN 26/16Z-26/24Z...NMRS MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS INTERIOR SITES
WITH A SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND G35KTS...SCT MVFR SHRAS/ISOLD
IFR TSRAS COASTAL SITES. AFT 27/00Z-27/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC
IFR TSRAS ALL SITES. AFT 27/04Z...SLGT CHC MVFR SHRAS.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU MIDDAY DUE
TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS WILL
LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING SHRAS/TSRAS
WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD TODAY.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WITH A GRADUAL NORTHWARD SHIFT INTO LATE WEEK. PREVAILING
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND 10KTS OVER MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS WHERE
THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO LINGER MOST OF THE WEEK...KEEPING WINDS
EITHER LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. CURRENT MODEL RUNS
SUGGEST THAT BOUNDARY WILL LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH THAT SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD EVEN THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS BY
THURSDAY. CHOPPY SEAS 2-3FT...OCCASIONALLY UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE.
OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A CONCERN...THOUGH
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 87 76 89 74 / 50 30 60 40
MCO 89 75 91 75 / 70 40 70 40
MLB 86 75 91 76 / 50 30 60 40
VRB 88 75 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
LEE 89 76 90 77 / 60 40 70 40
SFB 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
ORL 89 76 90 76 / 70 40 70 40
FPR 88 77 92 75 / 50 30 60 40
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...MOSES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS SHOW
THE LOW MEANDERING AROUND NORTH FLORIDA AND THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND THEN BEGINNING TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST FOR THE END FOR THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE LOW TO
MID LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL PUSH MOST OF ANY CONVECTION GENERALLY
NORTH OF I75. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE CHANCES OF CONVECTION
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TODAY WILL STILL SEE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION ALONG THE GULF COAST AS THE SFC LOW IS STILL FAIRLY
BROAD, AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO
CONTRACT AND CENTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
ONCE THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE AREA LATER THIS WEEK, HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL BRING
BACK THE EAST FLOW BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, ACCORDING TO
THE MOST CURRENT MODELS. THIS WILL LOWER CHANCES OF CONVECTION,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK.
FOR TODAY, THE SFC LOW WILL HAVE THE HELP OF A 500MB LOW PARKED OVER
IT TODAY. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, MOST OF THE INDICES
ARE PRETTY UNIMPRESSIVE, EXCEPT FOR THE PWATS, WHICH WERE JUST
OVER 2 INCHES. THE SFC BASED CAPE WAS AROUND 800J, THE LAPSE RATES
WERE LESS THAN 6C/KM AT THE VARIOUS LEVELS. NCAPE WAS ONLY .07.
THE FREEZING LEVEL WAS OVER 15K FT. THE 500MB TEMP WAS BETWEEN -6
AND -5C. THIS MATCHES UP WELL WITH THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT, WHICH
HAS BEEN JUST SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY, MAINLY OVER THE GULF COAST,
SOUTH OF NAPLES.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY, THE 500MB TEMP
STAYS RIGHT AROUND -5.5C. THE FREEZING LEVEL STAYS BETWEEN 15K AND
16K FT. THE LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE 6C/KM OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.
LOOKING AT THE BUFKIT NAM SOUNDINGS, IMMOKALEE LOOKS TO HAVE THE
BEST CAPE, AND THAT IS ONLY AROUND 1100J, FAIRLY LOW FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT, THE PWATS REMAIN BETWEEN 2 AND 2.5
INCHES. NCAPE IS .1 OR LESS. THE MBE VELOCITY IS SHOWING BETWEEN
10 AND 15 KTS. TODAY REALLY LOOKS MORE OF A CONVECTIVE SHOWER DAY,
WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE SHOWERS. BUT, THE SHOWERS
COULD BE HEAVY, GIVEN THE HIGH PWATS. THEY ALSO INDICATE THERE
COULD BE SOME BACK BUILDING OF ANY CONVECTIVE CELLS, MAINLY IN THE
INTERIOR. BUT ALONG THE COAST, THEY MAY BE OFFSET ENOUGH TO LIMIT
FLOODING IN THE URBAN AREAS ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING AT MODEL
PROBABILITIES, THERE IS LESS THAN A 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF ANY
FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM
LAST NIGHT, WHICH SHOWED NEARLY A 70 PERCENT CHANCE.
TAKING A LOOK AT THE HRRR FOR THE TYPE OF PATTERN FOR TODAY, IT
DOES SHOW THE GULF COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR AS HAVING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TODAY. IT ALSO SHOWS THE ATLANTIC
COAST MAY SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL. IT SHOWS THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL
AREAS IN WAVES TODAY. AGAIN, THE EAST SIDE OF THE CWA LOOKS TO
BEGIN SOMETIME AROUND 2 TO 3PM, AND MAY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
&&
.AVIATION...
LIGHT RAIN AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS WILL MOVE ONTO THE COASTAL COLLIER
COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING WITH VFR CIGS ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. AS DIURNAL HEATING SETS UP AFT 14Z, TSRA IS AGAIN
EXPECTED NEAR ALL TERMINALS AS SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF
TROPICAL AIR MASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
KOB
&&
.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL KEEP THE WIND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS. THE GULF MAY SEE SOME WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO
5 FT OFFSHORE. THE ATLANTIC WILL SEE CALMER CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR SHORE. THERE WILL A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK. RIP CURRENT CHANCES WILL BE LOW
ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEY MAY BE ELEVATED ALONG THE GULF COAST
DUE TO THE SOUTHWEST WIND.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 92 77 / 70 20 50 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 89 78 91 79 / 60 20 40 10
MIAMI 88 77 92 79 / 60 20 40 10
NAPLES 85 79 88 79 / 80 60 70 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...30/KOB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
139 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.PREV DISCUSSION...
UPDATE...
/ISSUED 1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS. HI RES GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TRYING
TO SHOW CONVECTION BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER RADAR STILL REMAINS
QUIET. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY
NOON THOUGH. HRRR IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LOCAL WRF. FORECAST POPS MAY NOT BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH BUT SINCE THE HI RES MODELS ARE A LITTLE OFF WITH
INITIATION TIMING...AM HOLDING OFF ON MAKING CHANGES TO POPS FOR
NOW. ONCE WE CAN GET MORE OF A TREND THEN WILL RE-EVALUATE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUSTMENT POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP
WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEAT
INDICES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
20
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
LONG TERM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH BUILD THE H5 HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE HIGH WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE WEST ALLOWING A
TROUGH TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE UNDER THE HIGH THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN COOL SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
17
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
ALREADY HAVE CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. WHILE
IN GENERAL...THIS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF THE TAF SITES...WILL NEED
TO WATCH THE ATL SITES CLOSELY AS A TSRA COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA.
WINDS HAVE STILL BE SOMEWHAT VRB THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD FAVOR
THE EAST SIDE AT ATL MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THEN BECOME VRB
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION.
11
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 92 71 94 73 / 20 5 20 20
ATLANTA 92 73 92 77 / 20 10 20 20
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 88 66 / 30 20 30 20
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 93 73 / 20 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 93 74 96 77 / 10 5 10 10
GAINESVILLE 90 73 92 74 / 20 10 20 20
MACON 93 70 96 72 / 10 5 5 5
ROME 92 72 94 72 / 20 20 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 93 71 / 10 5 10 10
VIDALIA 93 73 94 74 / 10 5 5 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS PEACHTREE CITY GA
1033 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
OVERALL THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE HOURLY TRENDS. HI RES GUIDANCE IS ALREADY TRYING
TO SHOW CONVECTION BY THIS TIME...HOWEVER RADAR STILL REMAINS
QUIET. SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY
NOON THOUGH. HRRR IS FURTHER SOUTH WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
TODAY COMPARED TO THE LOCAL WRF. FORECAST POPS MAY NOT BE FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH BUT SINCE THE HI RES MODELS ARE A LITTLE OFF WITH
INITIATION TIMING...AM HOLDING OFF ON MAKING CHANGES TO POPS FOR
NOW. ONCE WE CAN GET MORE OF A TREND THEN WILL RE-EVALUATE IF WE
NEED TO ADJUSTMENT POPS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER
THE REGION FROM THE EAST. DIURNAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN AT A
MINIMUM THROUGH MONDAY UNDER THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE NORTH GEORGIA MOUNTAINS EACH DAY WHERE SOME OROGRAPHIC HELP
WILL BE PRESENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REMAIN A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...HOWEVER THE DRIER AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN LOWER HEAT
INDICES THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.
20
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 251 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
LONG TERM MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. BOTH BUILD THE H5 HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US THROUGH MID-WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE CWA THROUGH MID WEEK UNDER THE HIGH WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION. AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE WEEK...THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE WEST ALLOWING A
TROUGH TO START DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE CWA AT THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE UNDER THE HIGH THROUGH MID
WEEK...BUT THEN COOL SOMEWHAT TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
17
AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 720 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE THROUGH THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. LOCAL TO SCATTERED MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH 14Z...ALTHOUGH I DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS AT
THE TAF SITES. FEW/SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY 14Z
BETWEEN 2-3KFT AGL...LIFTING INTO A SCATTERED CUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN
4-6KFT AGL BY 18Z. FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS 7-10KFT AGL AFTER 22Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY IN THE NORTH GEORGIA
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY BETWEEN 18Z
AND 02Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE IN DIRECTION
THROUGH 14Z...BECOMING SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST 4-8KT AFTER.
//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS...EXCEPT MEDIUM ON WIND DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
20
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS 92 71 94 73 / 10 10 20 20
ATLANTA 92 73 92 77 / 10 10 20 10
BLAIRSVILLE 88 69 88 66 / 30 40 30 30
CARTERSVILLE 92 72 93 73 / 10 10 20 20
COLUMBUS 93 74 96 77 / 10 10 10 10
GAINESVILLE 90 73 92 74 / 20 20 30 20
MACON 93 70 96 72 / 10 10 10 5
ROME 92 72 94 72 / 10 10 20 20
PEACHTREE CITY 92 70 93 71 / 10 10 10 10
VIDALIA 93 73 94 74 / 10 10 10 5
&&
.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...11
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MORNING MCS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 19Z/2PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NO LINGERING
PRECIP. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EASTERN
IOWA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2500J/KG. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STORMS
FIRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY CREATED BY THE MORNING MCS.
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
THIS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-74 AND EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AFTER THAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER
ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAPID
REFRESH MODELS SAY NO...HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED
PRECIP GOING. THE MAIN 850MB JET WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SUPPORT
FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ILLINOIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...NAM DOES
SHOW A WEAK 20-25KT BRANCH OF THE LLJ NOSING INTO THE AREA. WITH
THIS WEAK INFLOW COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.
&&
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IN
OR CLOSE TO THE CWA...BELIEVE A SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL ONLY BE SEEN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WORDING...BUT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TUE.
ONCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER WITH APPROACH OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GOTTEN LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS
FRONT AND IT NOW ARRIVES EARLY ON WED IN THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT WED AND THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA LATE
WED AFTERNOON...SO WED NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE CWA.
TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH WED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE MON AND WED...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
THIS HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH DWPTS IN THE 70S...UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY...TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90S TO 105 FOR MON AND
WED...AND 105-110 FOR TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...105...WILL
BE CLOSE TOMORROW BUT ONLY IN EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. SO LEANING
AWAY FROM ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CRITERIA IS MET ON TUE AND THEN
MAYBE IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA FOR WED. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN
GET ANOTHER LOOK FOR TOMORROW BECAUSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
ONCE THE MID WEEK FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER DWPTS TO
THE AREA. THIS RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
DECAYING MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 17Z/12 PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING ONLY
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINING. HAVE INTRODUCED PREVAILING LIGHT RAIN AT
BOTH KPIA AND KSPI BETWEEN 18Z AND 19Z...BUT THINK THE PRECIP WILL
COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE PUSHING ANY FURTHER EASTWARD. WILL
HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS SYSTEM AS
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FURTHER EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS. IN ADDITION...SEVERAL HIGH-RES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS MAY FIRE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED VCTS AT THE I-74
TERMINALS BETWEEN 20Z AND 02Z-03Z. ONCE ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION DISSIPATES...DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM MID-EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. DUE TO THE HIGHER DEWPOINT AIRMASS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION AND CONTINUED LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS...MAY
SEE SOME FOG OVERNIGHT AS WELL. DO NOT THINK IT WILL BECOME
WIDESPREAD OR DENSE...BUT WILL MENTION SLIGHTLY REDUCED VISBYS IN
THE TAFS LATE TONIGHT.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.
HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING. WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.
PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.
BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.
&&
.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
INITIAL CONCERN IS PEAK HEATING CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY RADIATION
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WATCHING AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR
KMCW/KALO THAT MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WOULD IMPACT A
PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW HOWEVER SO ALL SITES VFR INTO THE EVENING.
WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME
AREAS...LOW LEVEL RH WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING TO FOG POTENTIAL
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KMCW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS
STILL ONLY 5F AT 18Z. HAVE MENTIONED VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR IN
THESE AREAS...ROUGHLY 09-15Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
EARLIER OR EVEN DOWN TO LIFR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TOPEKA KS
614 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
...AVIATION UPDATE...
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
08Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
WESTERN OK, WHILE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED LOW SAT OVER
BRITISH COLUMBIA. THERE WERE A COUPLE MCS ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND MOVING MAINLY INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. LOCALLY
THE ELEVATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE DRIVEN BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
SPEED CONVERGENCE FROM THE LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE OBS SUGGEST THE
OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 70
CORRIDOR.
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT IF MORNING
CONVECTION MAY THROW A WRENCH IN THE FORECAST LIKE YESTERDAY. MOST
OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION FALLING APART BY MID MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT WEAKENS. THIS SEEMS TO MAKE SOME SINCE AS THERE DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE AN MCV OR VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY
THAT WOULD FORCE IT`S CONTINUATION LATE INTO THE DAY. THE ONLY WILD
CARD MAY THE MCS DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH IA. IF THIS SYSTEM, WITH A
BETTER DEFINED COLD POOL, WERE TO LAY DOWN AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THEN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST KS MAY END UP STAYING COOLER. BUT THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO SIGNAL
FROM THE MODELS FOR CONTINUED PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WITH A HOT AND HUMID DAY
IN STORE ONCE AGAIN. BUT THERE DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH IF ANY
FORCING AS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE EXPECT GOOD INSOLATION BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER MIXING TO AROUND 875MB. THIS SHOULD YIELD AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 90S. NORTH CENTRAL KS COULD SEE SOME LOWER
DEWPOINTS FROM THE AFTERNOON MIXING. NEVERTHELESS HEAT INDICES ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 105 EVEN WITH SOME MODEST MIXING OF THE
DEWPOINTS. WITH THIS IN MIND, WILL MAINTAIN THE HEAD ADVISORY AS IS
FOR NOW AND MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
TONIGHT THE MODELS DEVELOP CONVECTION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
NORTHERN CO AND WANT TO PROPAGATE IT EAST ALONG THE KS/NEB STATE
LINE. BOTH THE GFS AND NAM PROG A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
CONVECTION MOVING INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND LOWERING HEIGHTS.
BECAUSE OF THIS THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ONCE
AGAIN. SINCE MODELS WEAKEN THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BEFORE BRINGING IT
INTO EASTERN KS, HAVE KEPT POPS TONIGHT BELOW 20 PERCENT FOR EAST
CENTRAL KS THINKING CONVECTION MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE THAT DEEP
INTO THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MILD WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE THERMAL RIDGE REMAINING TO THE WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THINK LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S FOR MOST AREAS
MONDAY MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AHEAD OF A MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE THE WESTERN US SUNDAY NIGHT. THE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN
BUILD NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES STATES
AS THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHWEST KS
NORTH AND EAST ACROSS NE. I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM DURING
THE NIGHT UNDER THE H5 RIDGE AXIS.
MONDAY MAY HAVE THE HIGHEST AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES AS SOUTHERLY 850MB
WINDS KEEP DEEP GULF MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA. THE MIXING
MAY BE SLIGHTLY DEEPER ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL REACH INTO THE MID 90S BUT
DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HEAT INDICES MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA WILL RANGE FROM
104 TO 110.
ON TUESDAY THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEEPER MIXING ALLOWING
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA MIXING DOWN
INTO THE MID 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH AFTERNOON HIGHS
MAY BE IN THE 100 TO 103 DEGREE RANGE. AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES
TUESDAY AFTERNOON MAY ONLY REACH THE 100 TO 104 DEGREE RANGE. THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA MAY NOT SEE AS DEEP OF MIXING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS TO REMAIN IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THUS, AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL CONTINUE TO
RANGE FROM 103 TO 107 DEGREES.
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AN AMPLIFIED H5 TROUGH WILL MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE A SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE THE H5 TROUGH AXIS, COMBINED WITH
SURFACE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH HE AFTERNOON HOURS OF WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT BUT THERE WILL
REMAIN CHANCES FOR ELEVATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY...GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS
WILL BE COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH LOWER TO MID 80S
EXPECTED ALONG THE NE BORDER TO NEAR 90 SOUTH OF I-35.
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
AMPLIFY ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL US. THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS...THUS THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL ONLY
REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS THE THE H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL US
EXPANDING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE THE
HOT WEATHER MAY RETURN TO EASTERN KS INTO THE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THE ELEVATED CONVECTION
REASONABLY WELL, SHOWING THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN ABILENE AND
MHK. BASED ON THE HRRR, THINK STORMS WILL BE EAST OF MHK BY 12Z
AND TOP/FOE AROUND 14Z. OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF DOWNPOUR WHEN VSBY
MIGHT TEMPORARILY BE MVFR, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EVENING. WITH NO OBVIOUS FEATURE TO FORCE CONVECTION LATER
TODAY, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES TO INCLUDE
A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WOLTERS
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...WOLTERS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GOODLAND KS
1140 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR TO HAVE COME TO AN END SO A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MID MORNING
SUNDAY.
FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO THREAT FOR FOG...DENSE AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING SUNDAY. 00Z NAM AND RUC BRINGING IN
RATHER HIGH DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS. BOUNDARY LAYER RH FROM BOTH MODELS BECOMES SATURATED
GENERALLY EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. THE COMBINATION OF HIGH
DEWPOINTS...BOUNDARY LAYER RH AND WINDS RATHER LIGHT UNDER A
GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR FOG. NAM/RUC/HRRR
VISIBILITY FORECASTS ALL SHOW SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTIONS AND DENSE
FOG IS POSSIBLE. NO HIGHLITES AT THIS TIME BUT WILL WATCH CLOSELY
AND BRIEF INCOMING SHIFT TO THE POTENTIAL.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AS OF 3 PM CDT...2 PM MDT...SKIES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION WERE
PARTLY CLOUDY DUE TO A COUPLE DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS.
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH COOLEST TEMPS OVER
NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES WHERE CLOUD COVER WAS PERSISTENT THIS
MORNING. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 15
MPH. AT THE SURFACE...A LEE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER EAST COLORADO.
IN ADDITION...THERE IS A NOTICEABLE MOISTURE GRADIENT IN THE
VICINITY OF THIS TROUGH. A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS LOCATED
OVER WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AS WELL. ALOFT...LATEST WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A FEW VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING NORTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TRI-STATE REGION.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ANTICIPATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ONCE AGAIN AS A FEW MINOR SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH. FORECAST GUIDANCE
SIGNALS HAVE BEEN QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION
PLACEMENT THIS EVENING WITH MOST MODELS INDICATING STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 25. HOWEVER...THE SURFACE FEATURE STORMS ARE
LIKELY TO FIRE ON IS CURRENTLY IN EAST COLORADO. THEREFORE...MADE A
WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT WITH HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS
SLIDE EAST...EXPECTING DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY ORGANIZED COMPLEX
OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS...2000-
4000 J/KG OF SBCAPE...LOW TO MID LAPSE RATES OF 8 C/KM AND DCAPE
NEAR 1500 J/KG INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CAPABLE OF SEVERE STORMS.
HOWEVER...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30 KTS ARE NOT INDICATIVE OF A
FAVORABLE SUPERCELLULAR ENVIRONMENT WITH A VERY LARGE HAIL
ENVIRONMENT. THERE MAY BE A FEW SUPERCELLS BUT WITH A LESS UNSTABLE
AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...FEEL THAT
SIGNIFICANT HAIL IS MUCH LESS LIKELY. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS TODAY ARE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE
SEVERE THREAT...A FLASH FLOODING THREAT IS ALSO LIKELY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER READINGS ARE 1.50" TO 2.00"...WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. SLOW STORM MOVEMENTS...LESS THAN 15 KTS...AND POSSIBLE
TRAINING WILL ALSO HEIGHTEN A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
FOR TOMORROW...ANTICIPATE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS AS A MORE
DISTINGUISHABLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE REGION. SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING ARE ONE AGAIN POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER COLORADO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD EAST
ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW EVENING. THE OTHER CONCERN FOR SUNDAY IS
VERY HOT TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDEX READINGS. DECIDED TO PROCEED WITH A
HEAT ADVISORY AS TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S TO
100S. ALSO...DO NOT ANTICIPATE DEWPOINTS TO DECREASE AS FAST AS
SUGGESTED BY A FEW PIECES OF GUIDANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE RECENT
TREND...VERY HUMID CONDITIONS DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS SHOULD PRODUCE
HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100-107 RANGE.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LIFT OUT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGIONS AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT ROTATES THROUGH THE NORTHWEST UNITED STATES. THIS WILL
ALSO PULL A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY
WITH A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW AT THE SURFACE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND 90S. THE LOW CENTER MOVES FROM THE
NW U.S. ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES
BECOMING MORE ZONAL AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA ALOFT EXPANDS ACROSS
THE U.S. FROM THE SW THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE PLAINS RETROGRADES AND
DEVELOPS INTO A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER THE PLAINS STATES AT THE SURFACE WITH A LEE
TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY THE WEEKEND FOR A RETURN
OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS REACHING BACK UP INTO THE 90S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
KGLD...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
(COMPARED TO EARLIER MODEL DATA) IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COMING
IN FROM THE EAST. AT PRESENT TIME JUST REACHED IFR CIGS. OUTSIDE
OF CURRENT TIME THOUGHT THE BEST CHANCE FOR VLIFR CIGS FROM 11Z-
15Z PLUS OR MINUS AN HOUR. FROM 16Z-20Z JUST A FEW MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST UNDER 10KTS. FROM 21Z-03Z
WILL BE WATCHING AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST BRINGING GUSTY WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE TERMINAL. LARGE HAIL ALSO POSSIBLE.
WITH VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE IFR
VISIBILITIES IF THEY WERE TO GO OVER THE TERMINAL. AFTER 04Z
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE TERMINAL AREA.
KMCK...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE NORTHEAST FROM 09Z-15Z IFR/VLIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AND CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAF. FROM 16Z-00Z A FAIRLY QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED
WHILE WE AWAIT POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING TOWARD THE
TERMINAL FROM THE WEST. IT APPEARS THAT THIS CONVECTION WILL REACH
THE TERMINAL IN THE 01Z-05Z TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WINDS AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREATS. LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. WITH
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER AVAILABLE VISIBILITIES COULD BE
LOWERED INTO IFR/VLIFR CATEGORY FOR A SHORT PERIOD.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
KSZ004-016-029.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
308 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
Given a weak cool front dropping in from the north, an outflow
boundary from old convection coming in from the west, and a weak
upper shortwave trof sliding across Illinois and Indiana, will need
to retain small PoPs in the forecast this evening. HRRR has been
doing fairly well with the convection thus far today and supports
small PoPs as well. Convection chances will decrease during the
overnight hours, with another muggy, still night in store. Guidance
has been too warm with both highs and lows lately, so took lows to
around 70 tonight. If we retain more cloud cover than currently
expected, though, that forecast may indeed be too cool.
On Monday what little is left of tonight`s cool front may still be
lingering around the area, and outflow boundaries from overnight
convection to our northwest may be present as well. Precipitable
water values will pool around two inches and the low levels will
become unstable enough to support convection. Mid-level lapse rates,
though, will be quite weak and 7H temps will be warm. With the
absence of a strong trigger and with the upper ridge building in,
will keep PoPs low. High temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
Any convection tomorrow will be diurnal and should dissipate with
the setting of the sun, so will go dry for Monday night with warm,
muggy conditions once again.
.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
Tuesday - Thursday...
For mid week, we`ll be on the edge of an upper level ridge with a
weak cold front progged to push southeast through the region late
Wed/Wed night. Ahead of the front, scattered storms will be
possible on Tues and Wed. Generally wind profiles look pretty weak
although ample instability exists both days. For Tues, some mid
level capping may help inhibit storm strength and coverage. Storms
that do get going should be mainly heavy rainers with precipitable
water amounts (PWATs) around or just over 2 inches and slow storm
motions. Wed there will be slightly stronger winds and faster storm
motions with high PWATs, so hopefully any heavy rainers will have
some motion to them. Thursday some lingering showers and storms may
occur early in the day over south central KY close to the front.
Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
Tues-Thurs with the hottest day being Wed ahead of the front.
Friday - Sunday...
A dry end to the week looks likely behind the fropa with humidity
values dropping as well. Highs will fall back into the mid 80s to
around 90.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 109 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015
SDF stands the best chance at receiving TSRA this afternoon/evening
as a weak cool front drops down from the north and an outflow
boundary coming in from the west sparks scattered convection. A few
TSRA could affect BWG as well from that outflow boundary as it sinks
to the southeast. Will keep LEX dry for now.
Tonight should be quiet with scattered clouds and nearly calm winds
once again. Could see some BR around dawn, especially at BWG, but
more cloud cover tonight than the past couple of nights may help it
from becoming dense.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........13
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DINMINSHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.
OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUT MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK
IN 1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY
JUST TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDENT 850MB THETA-E
AXIS HAS NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.
A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETORGRADE W BACK OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.
THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
137-138-150>153-165>167.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.
ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 102 78 100 78 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 98 76 99 76 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 99 74 99 74 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 100 77 100 77 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 99 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 99 78 99 78 / 10 0 10 10
GGG 101 78 100 78 / 20 0 10 10
LFK 98 75 98 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.
&&
$$
15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SHREVEPORT LA
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION...
FOR THE 26/06Z TAFS...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INTO LOUISIANA AS WELL AS GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. REMNANT
HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY AFFECT MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HRS BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
ISOLATED TO SCT CONVECTION MAY AFFECT KELD/KMLU SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANY SHWRS/TSTMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD SLOWLY
DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD. /09/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
THIS EVENING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE
DECREASE AND WILL BE ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE FOUR STATE AREA. HAVE MADE A FEW MINOR CHANGES TO THE
AREA OF EXPECTED RAIN CHANCES AND NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
/06/
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/
DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.
THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.
THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.
THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...
15
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 100 78 99 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 76 99 76 98 / 10 10 10 10
DEQ 74 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 77 100 77 99 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 76 99 75 98 / 10 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 0 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 78 99 / 0 10 10 10
LFK 75 98 74 97 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.
&&
$$
09
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
105 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY...THEN BEGIN TO CROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...HAVE DECREASED POPS THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY AND LATEST HRRR MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH IS
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL FOR THE BALANCE
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO REMOVED ISLD THUNDER FROM THE
FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN ZONES. NO CHANGES NEEDED TO HIGH
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH TODAY WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
CROSSES THE REGION. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. COULD ALSO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MOSTLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NEAREST THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST OF THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EARLY TONIGHT THEN DECREASE
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. GENERALLY
EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY MONDAY THEN MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE
STATE LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF
THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR POPS...QPF AND SKY COVER. THE SUPERBLEND
WAS USED FOR TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT
BUT SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH THE UPPER
SYSTEM. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST THURSDAY RESULTING IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL USE THE
SUPERBLEND TO POPULATE GRIDS.
&&
.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VARIABLE CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM MVFR TO
LIFR...WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED WEDNESDAY. MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THURSDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN
SHOWERS AND FOG TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND GFS40 FOR SUSTAINED
WINDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY THEN TRANSITION TO THE SUPERBLEND WINDS
LATE TUESDAY. FOR WAVES: EXPECT SEAS RUNNING AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH
PERIOD WITH COMBINED SEAS COMPOSED OF A BLEND OF SOUTHERLY WIND
WAVE AT 5-6 SECONDS AND LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL AT 8-10
SECONDS. WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL MONDAY AND TUESDAY
THEN TRANSITION TO THE WAVE WATCH III.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...DUDA/NORCROSS
SHORT TERM...MIGNONE
LONG TERM...MIGNONE
AVIATION...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
MARINE...DUDA/NORCROSS/MIGNONE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
721 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN LAKES
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTREL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OVER ERN MT/WY. ISOLD SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SAW TO ERY HAVE DISIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPER
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
INTO THE SW CORNER OF MANITOBA BY TUE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN TONIGHT THAT MAY GENERATE
AN MCV THAT COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST
UPPER MI TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTRNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WHICH HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS
...EXPECT CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA TO
PREVENT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. SINCE THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER W LAKE
SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI...EXTENDING THROUGH THROUGH W AND
CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW SHIFTING NE
ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA...SITUATED OVER S MANITOBA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THE WRAPPED UP LOW WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
THROUGH FAR W ONTARIO...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO A WARM FRONT OVER W
UPPER MI AND A COLD FRONT OVER ORIENTED S THROUGH FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH OVER W UPPER MI BY
06Z...STRETCH FROM AROUND MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH
DELTA COUNTY BY 12Z...AND E OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION...TO START OUT THE EVENING.
FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE S STORMS RETAINING
THEIR CONVECTIVE LOOK AND E PROGRESSION...WHILE UPPER MI MAY HAVE A
FEW MORE BREAKS. LIKE HOW THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS TREND. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2IN OVER THE W HALF PRIOR TO 09Z
WEDNESDAY...AND OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI 09-15Z WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MUCH DRIER AIR WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PW VALUES QUICKLY FALL
TO 0.75IN OVER THE W HALF BY 15Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MODERATING TO
AROUND 1IN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB LOW OVER THE W HALF OF
ONTARIO SHIFTS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW
AFTERNOON HOURS W WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS WELL AS
INCREASED WINDS. A W-WNW 30-50KT 850MB JET WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WENT TOWARDS THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE TO DEW POINTS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
40 PERCENT CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE RELIEF...BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS HUDSON BAY. IF WE DO GET ANY PRECIP
IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AS SEVERAL WAVE ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW IN W-NW FLOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO MID
80S...WARMEST S CENTRAL.
A STRONGER WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE STEADY SFC-500MB LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY SHOULD SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS DISTANCE THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MIDDAY WED OVER THE
WRN LAKE.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
1156 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.
HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
NICE DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF THE BAY DE NOCS AND ALSO
OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. LAKE BREEZES IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE
AID THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SUPERIOR CONFINED TO
THE SHORELINE. THAT LAKE BREEZE OVER THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR IT.
THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING
TO THE 990S MB RANGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PINNING
DOWN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE EVOLUTION BOTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.9IN AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT HELPS WEAKEN ANY CAPPING
IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...EXPECT THEM TO BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TRY TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30KTS.
THINK THOSE BORDERLINE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH THE REALLY
WARM AIR (FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT)...WILL LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THEY
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING
IN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TOWARDS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AND END
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND BRINGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON ML WINDS OF
25-30KTS DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT THEY
SHOULDN/T BE AS STRONG AS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS REMAIN IN CONTROL AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS
ACROSS UPPER MI THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AS THE MAIN HIGH SETTLES
OVER LOWER MI. WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10KTS OR LESS...HIGHEST EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE CONTINUES TO BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG THE LAKE
SUPERIOR LAKE BREEZE AS IT TRIES TO SINK DOWN TOWARDS SAW.
OTHERWISE...DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.
HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...AS A SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER PENNSYLVANIA AND STRETCHING A RIDGE NORTHWEST OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO FEATURE SHOULD LEAD TO A
NICE DAY OVER MUCH OF UPPER MICHIGAN...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES RUNNING WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WILL
CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGHS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S FOR ALL BUT THE
IMMEDIATE LAKE MICHIGAN SHORELINE EAST OF THE BAY DE NOCS AND ALSO
OVER THE TIP OF THE KEWEENAW. LAKE BREEZES IN BOTH AREAS SHOULD BE
AID THOSE SLIGHTLY COOLER VALUES...WHILE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE LAKE BREEZE OFF SUPERIOR CONFINED TO
THE SHORELINE. THAT LAKE BREEZE OVER THE WEST MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK
OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
IRONWOOD TO HOUGHTON AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR IT.
THE FOCUS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW INTENSIFYING
TO THE 990S MB RANGE IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THIS
LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TO HUDSON BAY BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WHILE
PUSHING A COLD FRONT EAST ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. PINNING
DOWN THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD IS TRICKY AS UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONTROL THE EVOLUTION BOTH TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA.
AS THE LOW AND STRONG UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TUESDAY...EXPECT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DO
HAVE SOME CONCERN FOR THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...SINCE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
WEST OF THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID...THE WARM/MOIST ATMOSPHERE AHEAD
OF THE FRONT (PWAT VALUES RISING TO AROUND 1.9IN AND SURFACE
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 60S) WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT HELPS WEAKEN ANY CAPPING
IN PLACE TUESDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNDER THE BROAD MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...HAVE FOCUSED THE HIGHEST POPS DURING THE TUESDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOUR PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT. WHERE THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR...EXPECT THEM TO BECOME
STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE AS MLCAPE VALUES ARE IN THE 1-2K J/KG
RANGE AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES TRY TO INCREASE FROM 20 TO 30KTS.
THINK THOSE BORDERLINE BULK SHEAR VALUES...ALONG WITH THE REALLY
WARM AIR (FREEZING LEVELS OF 14-15KFT)...WILL LIMIT THE HAIL
POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR THE STRONGEST STORMS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. WHILE THOSE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT THE HAIL POTENTIAL...THEY
WILL INCREASE THE HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN FACTORING
IN THE HIGH PWAT VALUES...DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTH...AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET TOWARDS EVENING. FORTUNATELY...THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE KEEP THE STORMS
MOVING TUESDAY NIGHT.
MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL QUICKLY MOVE OVER THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...BRINGING AND END
TO THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND BRINGING MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A HIGH BUILDING
INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON ML WINDS OF
25-30KTS DURING THE DAY OVER THE WEST AND COULD SEE SOME HIGHER
GUSTS OVER THE EXPOSED LOCATIONS ON THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA. A
SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...BUT THEY
SHOULDN/T BE AS STRONG AS SEEN ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL NOSE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH
SWEEPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOWING LIMITED
MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT...SO WON/T GO OVER SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON THAT MAY AFFECT KSAW BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
354 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EXPECT BUILDING 5H RIDGE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS MID-
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. COULD SEE EVEN
SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AS 8H TEMPS RISE TO 18-
20C IN A WSW FLOW. EXPECT INLAND TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S WITH EVEN
LOWER 90S TEMPS POSSIBLE OVER TYPICAL WARM SPOT LOCATIONS LIKE
KENTON...BARAGA OR LA BRANCHE. STILL EXPECTING A LAKE BREEZE TO FORM
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON ON...LOWERING TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES ALONG THE SHORELINE.
WITH RAP MODEL SHOWING MLCAPES 200-700 J/KG IN THE AFTERNOON ITS
POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD MAYBE
TRIGGER AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA. HOWEVER...THERE ARE PLENTY OF INHIBITING
FACTORS FOR SHRA/TSRA WHICH INCLUDE DRY AIR NOTED BELOW 800 MB OFF
RAP SNDGS...MID-LVL (700-500 MB) LAPSE RATES AROUND ONLY 6C/KM AND
MID-LVL Q-VECT DIV AS RIDGE HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. WL ONLY INCLUDE
SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR SHRA/TSRA ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES...MAINLY
CENTRAL AND EAST. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30 KTS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY SVR STORMS IF CONVECTION DOES INDEED FORM.
HIGH PRES OVER AREA SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE
AN ISOLD SHRA/TSRA SNEAK IN OVER FAR NRN LAKE SUPERIOR FROM
CONVECTION FORMING TO THE NORTH WHERE MODELS DEPICT DEEPER MOISTURE
AND WEAK TO MODERATE WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN WESTERLY FLOW...BUT
UPPER MI SHOULD STAY DRY. MIN TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S UNDER CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015
RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TO UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SETTLES OVER EASTERN
CONUS WHILE STRONG TROUGH ALOFT DIGGING OVER ROCKIES HELPS DEVELOP
PRETTY STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR LATE JULY STANDARDS OVER
SCNTRL CANADA. GFS SHOWS A LOT OF LGT QPF FM WI INTO UPR MICHIGAN
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...BUT ITS SOUNDINGS DO NOT REALLY
SUPPORT MUCH PRECIP WITH JUST A COUPLE THIN LAYERS OF MOISTURE AND
MINIMAL LIFT. PREFER THE DRIER IDEA FM THE NAM/ECMWF/GEM-REGIONAL.
ONLY SMALL EXCEPTION MAY BE A FEW SHRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING OVER EASTERN LK SUPERIOR AND FAR EAST CWA WITH MOISTURE FM
H8-H7 AND AT LEAST HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE BASED WHEN LIFTING FM H85-
H8. PROBABLY JUST AN ACCAS FIELD WITH SPRINKLES OR SHRA. BEST CHANCE
WILL STAY OVER LK SUPERIOR INTO ONTARIO. LAKE BREEZES SHOULD FORM
BY AFTN AS THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EASTERN CONUS KEEPS WEAK
RIDGE BACK OVER THE GREAT LAKES. UNTIL LAKE BREEZES COME ONSHORE IN
THE AFTN...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE UPPER 80S OR LOW 90S
WITH SOUNDINGS MIXING TO AT LEAST H85 TEMPS UPWARDS OF +20C BY AFTN.
THUS...WHEN LAKE BREEZE COOLING OCCURS IN THE AFTN NEAR LK SUPERIOR
IT COULD HAVE SOME BITE TO IT...ESPECIALLY AT COPPER HARBOR/MARQUETTE
AND MUNISING WITH MORE OF AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT EXPECTED.
AFTER A MILD/MUGGY NIGHT IN THE 60S MONDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT TIED
TO THE SCNTRL CANADA LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY AFTN INTO
TUESDAY EVENING WITH COLD FRONT CROSSING UPR MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY...FEASIBLE THAT THERE MAY BE WEAKER
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED SHORTWAVES SLIDING OVER UPPER LAKES AS EARLY AS
TUESDAY MORNING AHEAD OF NORTHERN PLAINS TROUGH. ALL THE MODELS AT
LEAST HINT AT THIS POSSIBILITY BUT GFS IS STRONGEST WITH THESE
SHORTWAVE AND SHOWS LGT QPF INTO EASTERN CWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THINK
GREATEST FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA ON TUESDAY WILL BE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF
UPR MICHIGAN...NEARER THE TIGHTER GRADIENT OF MLCAPES OVER 2000 J/KG
AND WHERE MUCAPES ARE OVER 3000 J/KG. CAPPING LIKELY WILL BE AN ISSUE
FOR CONVECTION CHANCES ON TUESDAY AFTN OVER THE REGION AS LARGER
SCALE FORCING REMAINS STRONGEST WELL TO THE WEST OVER DAKOTAS AND
WITH STRONG INDICATION OF SHARPER WARMING CENTERED AT H8 PER NAM/GFS
SOUNDINGS. UNLESS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVES ARE STRONGER...PROBABLY WILL
HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA OVER UPR MICHIGAN. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLD SHRA/TSRA TRYING TO MAKE INTO UPR MICHIGAN LATER IN THE DAY
THOUGH AS MEAN WINDS FM WSW WOULD ADVECT ANY POP-UP SHRA/TSRA TOWARD
SW CWA OUT OF MUCH HIGHER MUCAPE AREA TO THE SW. CAPPING MAY DIMINISH
THAT POTENTIAL THOUGH. SINCE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES BTWN THE
PLAINS LOW AND DEPARTING HIGH...MAIN LAKE MODIFICATION WILL BE OFF LK
MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...H85 TEMPS PUSHING PAST +20C SUPPORT
A HOT DAY AS LONG AS CLOUDS ARE NOT TOO DISRUPTIVE. MAY SEE MULTIPLE
READINGS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FM IMMEDIATE LK MICHIGAN SHORE.
COLD FRONT WORKS THROUGH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DETAILS FAR FM CERTAIN...BUT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SEEM POSSIBLE
WITH THE FROPA SOMEWHERE IN THE UPPER LAKES REGION...JUST NOT SURE
IT WILL BE OVER UPR MICHIGAN. INCREASING SW H85 JET DOES BRING
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT INTO UPPER LAKES JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH H85 DWPNTS OVER +15C BOOSTING PWATS TO OVER 2.0
INCHES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MARGINAL TO START NIGHT...BUT DOES RISE
AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. H85 JET VEERS MORE
WESTERLY LATE SO MIGHT SEE MORE CONCENTRATED AND STRONGER STORMS
STAY MAINLY SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN CLOSER TO PERSISTENT GRADIENT OF
HIGHER MLCAPE. STRONGEST H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS ALSO FOCUSED
SOUTH OF UPR MICHIGAN. WARMEST TEMPS AT H8 POINT TO STRONGEST
CAPPING OCCURRING SOUTH THOUGH. KEPT WITH CONSENSUS HIGH CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS CWA...HIGHEST SOUTH...GIVEN STRONG FROPA/STRONGER
DYNAMICS INTERACTING WITH MUCAPES OVER 1000J/KG OVER UPR MICHIGAN.
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND INCREASING MID LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT COULD
SUPPORT HAIL POTENTIAL DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS NEARING 15KFT. MAYBE
BETTER WIND POTENTIAL AS 0-1KM SHEAR UP TO 20 KTS RUNS PERPENDICULAR
TO THE FRONT WHICH COULD LEAD TO LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING SEGMENTS AS
COLD POOLS WILL BE ABLE TO BALANCE OUT THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR. WITH
SUCH HIGH FREEZING LEVELS...HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A BIG HAZARD AS WELL.
SHRA/TSRA WITH THE FRONT MOVES OUT QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
COULD BE WINDY BY WEDNESDAY AFTN AS WINDS SHIFT WEST AS SFC LOW
DROPPING TO LESS THAN 995MB HEADS TOWARD HUDSON BAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUDNINGS SHOWED WELL MIX PROFILE ON THE LAKE AND OVER KEWEENAW WITH
WINDS WELL OVER 30 KTS. COULD SEE WINDS GUSTING TO 40-45 MPH OVER
THE MORE EXPOSED KEWEENAW. STILL BREEZY ON THURSDAY WITH LINGERING
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. NW WINDS WILL KEEP LK SUPERIOR SHORELINE
AREAS EAST OF MARQUETTE IN THE 60S. MID 70S MOST OTHER AREAS WITH
NEAR 80 DEGREES STILL POSSIBLE OVER FAR SCNTRL NEAR KMNM DUE TO
DOWNSLOPING WINDS.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPS THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT SMALL CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD RESULT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH SYNCHS UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND MLCAPES NEARING 500 J/KG. DID NOT CHANGE CONSENSUS POPS. AFTER
THE BLO NORMAL DAY ON THURSDAY...HIGH TEMPS WILL BOUNCE BACK TO 80
DEGREES OR ABOVE FRIDAY THEN SLIP BACK INTO THE 70S ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE TROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 203 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS ACROSS LAKE MI OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS LOWER MI SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS UPPER MI...WITH LIMITED
MOISTURE. SHRA/TSRA MAY DEVELOP ALONG LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES SUN
AFTERNOON THAT MAY AFFECT KSAW BUT PROBABILITY TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 KT THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PRES DEVELOPING OVER S MANITOBA LATE
TUESDAY WILL BRING A TROUGH ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT COULD GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TUE
NIGHT WITH WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PUSH A RIDGE OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SLOWLY DIMINISHING WINDS THURSDAY.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...JLA
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.
FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.
KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
129 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE A COUPLE OF TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS TODAY. WE HAVE A REMNANT
H7 LOW FROM CONVECTION LAST NIGHT THAT IS NOW STUCK BENEATH A
BUILDING RIDGE. THIS HAS KEPT MID CLOUDS GOING ALONG THE MN/WI
BORDER AND RAP/NAM SHOW THAT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. THEREFOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND DECREASED HIGHS A FEW DEGREES ALONG THE
MN/WI WHERE...WHERE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IS NOW UNLIKELY. ALSO
TRIMMED BACK POPS QUITE A BIT...LEAVING A SMALL AREA OF ISO
THUNDER AROUND SE MN. RAP SHOWS A RIBBON OF 1500-2000 J/KG OF
SBCAPE DEVELOPING. SEVERAL CAMS ALSO SHOW SOME ISO ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING HERE AS WELL...SO FELT THERE WAS AT LEAST SOME
JUSTIFICATION FOR LEAVING POPS IN DOWN THERE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF MINNESOTA EARLY THIS
MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF SAID ACTIVITY...HI-RES MODELS SHOW
700 MB TEMPS/HEIGHTS BUILDING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN...WITH AN H7
TEMP CIRCA +11C OR GREATER DEVELOPING GENERALLY ALONG AND
WEST/SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER VALLEY BY 18Z. THE MAJORITY OF CAMS
MODELS INDICATE SPOTTY CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS CAPPING INVERSION. WHILE THERE IS
NOT ANY SORT OF WELL-DEFINED FOCUSING MECHANISM TO SPARK SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN THE INSTABILITY THAT IS PROGGED TO
DEVELOP WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND FAINT MIDLEVEL ENERGY
OVERHEAD...FEEL A 20 POP IS WARRANTED.
ANY CONVECTION WOULD COME TO AN END AROUND SUNSET...WITH A MUGGY
SUMMER NIGHT AHEAD...AS LOW TEMPS HOLD UP IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WITH DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR BELOW THAT.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE EXTENDED PERIOD CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS HOT/HUMID AND UNSETTLED
AT THE BEGINNING...THEN TURNING COOLER AND DRIER BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.
AN ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND EASTWARD ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP CONDS VERY
WARM AND HUMID WITH HEAT INDICES BOTH MONDAY/TUESDAY AFTN IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE URBAN AREA OF THE
TWIN CITIES METRO AREA WOULD GET A HEAT ADVISORY FOR BOTH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BASED ON THESE CONDS. THE ONLY QUESTION IS WHETHER MORE
CLOUD COVER WILL INHIBIT FULL SUNSHINE AND LOWER AFTN HIGHS.
THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW MONDAY TO WARRANT ISOLD TSRA IN EC MN/WC WI...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARND 7.0 TO 7.5C.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ACTIVE WX AND THE POTENTIAL OF SVR WX WILL BEGIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION...ALONG THE INCREASING LLJ
SURGES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE
UPPER LOW AND A STRENGTHENING SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS SHOULD WARRANT
THIS SIGNIFICANT LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ADVECTION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR MPX CWA. STEEP
LAPSE RATES/AMPLE INSTABILITY ALONG THE STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO WARRANT SVR POTENTIAL. AT THIS TIME...SPC IS NOT HIGHLIGHTING
OUR REGION...WITH MAINLY A MARGINAL RISK OF SVR WX. A BETTER CHC OF
SVR WX IS LIKELY TUESDAY AFTN AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE PROBLEM
WITH TUESDAY IS A VERY STRONG CAP DEVELOPING DURING THE DAYTIME WITH
70H TEMPS RISING TO NEAR 14C. IT MAYBE LATE IN THE EVENING BEFORE
THIS CAP BEGINS TO BREAK WHICH LEADS TO MORE SVR WX SE OF MPX CWA.
THE MAIN PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO MN UNTIL AFT TUESDAY EVENING. SO...THE STRONG CAP COULD
PRECLUDE AN ACTIVE TUESDAY EVENING IN MN...AND THE MAIN FOCUS IN
WI/IA DURING THE LATE EVENING ONCE THE CAP BREAKS.
PAST TUESDAY NIGHT...THE ABNORMALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH
OF THE GREAT LAKES...BRING DRIER WX AND COOLER TEMPS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
MAIN QUESTION THIS PERIOD IS WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE LOW STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOP TONIGHT TO THE NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTH OUT OF IOWA. WE WILL HAVE A VERY MOIST...LIGHT EAST
FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS ALL NIGHT...WHICH IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION
FOR GETTING LOW CLOUDS...BUT WITH NOTHING OUT THERE NOW...WILL
SIDE WITH CLIMATOLOGY AND MENTION NOTHING MORE THAN SOME MVFR BR.
SREF PROBS FOR CIGS UNDER 3K FT WOULD SAY BEST SHOT AT SEEING
STRATUS WOULD BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MN RIVER...IMPLYING RWF
HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE AT SEEING STRATUS TONIGHT. ALSO HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THIS TAF PERIOD BEING DRY AT ALL TERMINALS...WITH
TSRA CHANCES NOT STARTING TO RAMP UP UNTIL AFTER 3Z TUESDAY.
KMSP...GFSLAMP HAS BEEN BACKING AWAY FROM FOG/STRATUS TONIGHT SO
HAVE KEPT MSP VFR THROUGHOUT...THOUGH THE EXPECTED ESE WIND
THROUGH TONIGHT IS A FAVORABLE DIRECTION FOR GETTING FOG/LOW
STRATUS. WE LOOK TO BE CAPPED MONDAY AFTERNOON...SO NOT EXPECTING
ANYTHING UNTIL STORMS SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MODELS THIS
MORNING SHOW MOVING INTO MSP BETWEEN 9Z AND 12Z TUESDAY.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...IFR/MVFR IN TSRA EARLY THEN VFR. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...MPG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH. WE EXTENDED THE
CHANCE INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING A BIT NORTH BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND IF AND
WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE SCOOTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE FROM MILLE LACS LAKE TO JUST SOUTH OF SIREN AS OF
08Z. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AS WELL BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY THIS MORNING IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 8 AM AND 9 AM.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TODAY ON NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TODAY WHICH
WOULD DISCOURAGE NEW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND WE ALREADY
HAD A CHANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THERE. IT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT DESPITE
SOME WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME FOG IN
SPOTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.
WE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT THINK THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
A SUBTLE UPPER WAVE MAY SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. WINDS WILL TURN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
HOT...HUMID...AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE INTO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...DEFINITELY THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AT LOW LEVELS...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
PREVENT MUCH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT
/INCREASING TO ABOUT 40KTS/ WILL SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN WITH PWAT VALUES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMO...BUT 20-
30KT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD RISK. BEST TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
35 SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OF THE
SUMMER...APPROACHING 90 ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER DOWN AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100.
WED/THURS/FRI...COOLER AND DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 80S THURS/FRI.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.
SAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT MODEL VARIABILITY TOO
LARGE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING AT ALL
SITES. SFC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM LOWER MICHIGAN ACROSS NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN LIGHT SFC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. WMFNT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON NEAR INL. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE IN NORTHEAST MN...BUT SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM DLH.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT ALLOWING AMPLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING...AND WITH CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION...AREAS
OF FOG ARE LIKELY ONCE AGAIN. HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TOWARD IFR
VSBYS AT HIB/BRD/HYR WITH MVFR AT DLH/INL. VSBYS IMPROVE RAPIDLY
AFTER SUNRISE ON MONDAY. VCSH/VCTS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH DEVELOPMENT MOST FAVORABLE AFTER 27.18Z SO WILL
LEAVE THOSE ADDITIONS FOR THE EVENING SHIFT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
INL 86 64 87 68 / 20 10 10 40
BRD 86 65 86 69 / 20 10 20 70
HYR 85 63 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
ASX 87 63 87 66 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WE INCREASED POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE SLIGHTLY NORTH. WE EXTENDED THE
CHANCE INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE DROPPING. THE LATEST RAP SHOWS A
SHORTWAVE OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA MOVING A BIT NORTH BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AGAIN BY LATE MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND IF AND
WHEN TO INTRODUCE POPS.
A FEW SHOWERS WERE SCOOTING ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING AND WERE FROM MILLE LACS LAKE TO JUST SOUTH OF SIREN AS OF
08Z. WE EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO MOVE OFF THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO DIVE SOUTHEAST. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS WERE
MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST ONTARIO AS WELL BUT HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF
WEAKENING. WE MAY BE ABLE TO GO DRY THIS MORNING IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE. THERE WILL BE SOME FOG THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL BURN
OFF BETWEEN 8 AM AND 9 AM.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TODAY ON NEW
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TODAY WHICH
WOULD DISCOURAGE NEW CONVECTION. HOWEVER...SEVERAL OF THE HIGH RES
CAMS DEPICT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS OVER OUR FAR NORTH AND WE ALREADY
HAD A CHANCE SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT THERE. IT WILL AGAIN
BE QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S.
TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY WITH MOST OF THE MODELS IN AGREEMENT DESPITE
SOME WARM AIR/MOISTURE ADVECTION. THERE COULD AGAIN BE SOME FOG IN
SPOTS WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE.
WE HAVE SMALL POPS FOR MOST AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH TO
FOCUS CONVECTION...BUT THINK THE CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
A SUBTLE UPPERWAVE MAY SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING. WINDS WILL TURN OFF LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WE COULD SEE SOME STORMS FIRE ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE AS WELL. HIGHS
WILL AGAIN BE INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS INCREASING.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
HOT...HUMID...AND STORMS LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN DRY AND MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER AGAIN POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND AS TEMPERATURES AGAIN RISE INTO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
CATEGORY.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...DEFINITELY THE MOST CHALLENGING
PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION WITH VERY WARM TEMPS AT LOW LEVELS...WARM ENOUGH TO POSSIBLY
PREVENT MUCH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET MONDAY NIGHT
/INCREASING TO ABOUT 40KTS/ WILL SUSTAIN AND ENHANCE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ALONG THE WARM FRONT MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. MAY
SEE A BREAK IN THE ACTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH CLOUD COVER FROM
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION POSSIBLY LIMITING SURFACE HEATING...BUT EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH EITHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY.
LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL LIKELY BE A CONCERN WITH PWAT VALUES
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO CLIMO...BUT 20-
30KT STORM MOTIONS SHOULD LIMIT A WIDESPREAD FLOOD RISK. BEST TIMING
FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AREAS ALONG INTERSTATE
35 SOUTH OF THE TWIN PORTS EAST ACROSS ALL OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE HEAVIEST RAIN RATES.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE SOME OF THE WARMEST OF THE
SUMMER...APPROACHING 90 ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER DOWN AT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA IN PINE AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND WITH DEW
POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
90S TO NEAR 100.
WED/THURS/FRI...COOLER AND DRY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WINDY WITH
WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS. HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY TO THE LOW 80S THURS/FRI.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY EACH DAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON WEDNESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE NO WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES.
SAT...CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...BUT MODEL VARIABILITY TOO
LARGE TO PIN DOWN MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS AT THIS TIME. HIGHS COULD BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER OR COOLER DEPENDING ON HOW THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES RESOLVE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL TAF SITES...WITH
CONDITIONS DETERIORATING TO MVFR TO IFR VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT
AS FOG DEVELOPS. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...INCREASING TO
5-10 KTS OUT OF THE S-SW TODAY DIMINISHING TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 85 66 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
INL 86 64 87 68 / 20 10 10 40
BRD 86 65 86 69 / 30 10 20 70
HYR 85 63 85 68 / 10 10 20 40
ASX 87 63 87 66 / 10 10 20 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1200 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A COUPLE OF MCVS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY OVER SODAK ARE
NOW DRIFTING OVER MN...BUT ENCOUNTERING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
AS THEY DO SO...SO THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THE AREA TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH IS CENTRAL SODAK OUT BY MILLER AND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE SEVERAL
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP. THIS REGION IS ALSO AT THE
EDGE OF A CAPPING EML. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AROUND 21/22Z AND WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. H85 THETA-E GRADIENT...H7
THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-H3 THICKNESSES ALL POINT TO THIS ACTIVITY
BUILDING SE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WORKING DOWN TO OR EVEN SW OF DES
MOINES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THAT WE
ARE LIKELY TO GET NOTHING MORE THAN A GRAZING FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN BEING SW OF THE MN
RIVER IN SW INTO SC MN. THIS IDEA IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL-
WRF AND THE HOP-WRF MEMBERS. THE HRRR SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR AS
WELL...THOUGH THINK IT BRINGS ACTIVITY TOO FAR NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT.
FOR THE MPX AREA...OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE
WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK
SOME ACCAS TYPE ACTIVITY IN WRN MN...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR IOWA...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT UP HERE.
FOR SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH DEWPS INCREASING BACK INTO
THE 70S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE MPX CWA...FORCING WILL BE DECIDEDLY
LACKING. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR US IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL HAVE RISING H5
HEIGHTS ALL DAY. IN ADDITION TO THAT...ANY SORT OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN DOWN IN IOWA...SO WE WILL NOT HAVE THAT TO HELP
WITH FORCING DEEP CONVECTION EITHER. IN THE END...RETAINED SOME 30
POPS OR LESS...BUT TRIMMED THAT MENTION DOWN TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MN RIVER. IN GENERAL THOUGH...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD...THOUGH
WARM/HUMID SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE MPX CWA.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY IS THAT OF
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TUESDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. LOCALLY MN/WI BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BL FLOW BUT NO PRONOUNCED TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. 700MB TEMPS AREN`T OVERLY WARM...SO THE CAPPING
ISN`T OVERLY STRONG...THIS IS WHY WE THINK THE GFS TRIES TO
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST ARE ON MONDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF
ARE DRIER IN MID-LEVELS...SO WE THINK THE POP SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE EITHER.
ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PWATS THAT
APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE
925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...WE COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT
THE VERY LEAST CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN
THE UPPER 80S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS SOLID BY TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST OFF TODAY`S MODEL
RUNS. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOUTHWEST OF RWF...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE MN RIVER INTO CENTRAL MN. THIS AREA WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT...LIKELY ERODING ON THE NORTHERN EDGE SOMEWHAT AS IT
DOES SO. REGARDLESS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
KMSP...IT APPEARS MSP SHOULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT...BUT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AND AMOUNTS WILL
BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20 KTS.
&&
.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...BORGHOFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS JACKSON MS
1054 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...NO CHANGES ANTICIPATED TO FORECAST AT PRESENT. MASSIVE
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING AND A MUCH DRYER AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 12Z UA SOUNDING
WITH A PW OF 1.39. ALTHOUGH HRRR IS FORECASTING SOME LIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH BEGINNING NOW...VISIBLE
IMAGERY NOT EVEN SHOWING ANY CU DEVELOPMENT YET. CURRENT POP FORECAST
HAS SLIGHT GOING IN THE SOUTH...NOT SURE ABOUT THAT NOW WITH
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AND NO LOW LEVEL FOCUS TO INITIATE./26/
&&
.AVIATION...ALL SITES ARE VFR THIS MORNING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TODAY WILL HAVE AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AT
AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. /15/
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AFTER A RATHER ACTIVE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH AT LEAST SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF
FROM THE PROLONGED HEAT IN SOME LOCALES...IT APPEARS A MORE SUBDUED
SUNDAY IS ON TAP. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY AS RIDGING
ALOFT INCREASES ITS PRESENCE ACROSS THE AREA. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING ITSELF INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHEAST BEHIND A VERY WEAK BOUNDARY NOW SITUATED JUST SOUTH OF THE
CWA...WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR OVER THE CWA.
BASICALLY THIS ALL EQUATES TO CONTINUED HOT CONDITIONS AREAWIDE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY ACROSS
MY SOUTHERN ZONES IN THE VICINITY OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR NEAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY. DESPITE THE LOWER DEW POINTS OVER THE
REGION...AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 102-110
RANGE AS HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON PEAK FROM 97 TO 100 DEGREES. THE HEAT
ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 7 PM CDT TODAY OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA WHERE HEAT INDICES WILL ARE PROGGED TO BE HIGHEST...FROM
106 TO 110.
MUCH OF THE SAME IS FORECAST ON MONDAY. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE
96-100 RANGE...WITH HEAT INDICES AGAIN RANGING FROM 102 TO 108.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...MAINLY ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES AGAIN. AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. AS FAR AS LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT ARE CONCERNED...THEY`LL BE A
TAD COOLER AS THEY FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 70S. /19/
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY...IMPROVING RAIN CHANCES AND GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT ON A SHIFT IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THIS WEEK. THE MID/UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI/RED RIVER VALLEYS ON TUESDAY WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
WESTWARD MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG UPPER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADA BORDER.
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE RIDGE MAINTAINS GREATER INFLUENCE,
MID/UPPER 90S TEMPS WILL HANG AROUND, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
SPOTS TO TOUCH 100 ESPECIALLY IN THE DELTA. HOWEVER, DIURNAL
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY PREVALENT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE REGION BECOMES POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. BY FRIDAY WITH UPPER TROUGHING NOW BUILDING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COAST, A (WEAK) COLD FRONT, YES, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE THIS
FRONT WILL BE RATHER LACKLUSTER IN TERMS OF DRASTIC CHANGES IN
TEMPERATURE, IT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES OVER THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CLOUD COVER,
AND THEREFORE, MORE LIMITED INSOLATION DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS,
KNOCKING HIGH TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THOUGH THE FRONT WILL LIKELY STALL BEFORE MAKING IT ALL THE
WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PULLING AWAY, IT SHOULD STILL BRING SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR INTO AT LEAST
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IN FACT, POPS
WILL BE LOWERED FOR SATURDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY. /DL/
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON 100 74 99 74 / 6 4 6 10
MERIDIAN 97 73 97 73 / 6 4 7 9
VICKSBURG 100 75 98 74 / 7 4 8 10
HATTIESBURG 97 73 97 74 / 15 10 8 7
NATCHEZ 97 74 96 74 / 15 12 12 11
GREENVILLE 99 75 99 76 / 5 3 6 7
GREENWOOD 98 74 98 75 / 4 2 6 8
&&
.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-019-025>027-
034>036-040>042-047-053-059>061.
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
023>026.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-075.
&&
$$
26/15
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
531 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 519 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED THUNDWERSTORMS FORMING PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO.
SHORT TERM MODELS WERE DEVELOPING THIS, ALTHOUTH COVERAGE IS MUCH
LESS THEN THEY INDICATE. WEAK BOUNDARIES AND DAYTIME HEATING IS
PROBABLY RESPONSIBLE. WEAK LIFT ALONG THE 305/310 FURFACE MAY GET
A FEW STORMS GOING EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT THE LIFT STARTS TO GO
AWAY AFTER 06Z SO IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO SE NEBRASKA MONDAY DEPRESSING
THE RIDGE A BIT WILL HELP FIRE STORMS BUT IT LOOKS LIKE INITIATION
WILL BE WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST. JUST A MATTER IF ANYTHING
MOVES FAR ENOUGH SE INTO THE AREA. THAT IS LIKE THROWING DARTS SO
A DRY FORECAST WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL FOR NOW.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM THIS EVENING SO
WILL LIKELY CARRY A VCTS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS. LOOKS LIKE STL
WILL BE FAR ENOUGTH SOUTH AND EAST OF ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WITH THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MONDAY, AND THE LOCATION OF ANY ISOLATED
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT, SO WILL
CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST AND KEEP FINGERS CROSSED.
JPK
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS ST LOUIS MO
331 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.
BRITT
.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.
BRITT
&&
.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON IN STL
METRO AREA. SO HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.
SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN METRO AREA, THOUGH SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS AFTERNOON. SO
HAVE VICINITY TS MENTION THROUGH 01Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE, LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS TO PREVAIL.
BYRD
&&
.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.
IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.
&&
$$
WFO LSX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
1256 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015
...18Z Aviation Update...
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.
Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.
There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.
Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.
For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.
By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR conditions should continue through the next 24 hours, as any
thunderstorm chances remain north and east of the terminals. Winds
will remain light out of the south.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ055>058-067>071-
078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR MOZ066-
077-088-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ073-
097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Boxell
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.
As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.
Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.
Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.
Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Weak outflow boundary over west central MO should wash out this
afternoon so looking at a dry forecast with VFR conditions.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...MJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1002 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
Issued at 958 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Tail end of the convective complex has exited the CWA and threat of
flash flooding has ended so cancelled the watch.
As for the Heat Advisory the convective complex has sent a large
outflow boundary with significantly cooler and slightly drier air
across all but the far southern counties. This is similar to
yesterday and we were able to recover and heat indices shot back up
to 105 or higher. However, satellite imagery shows a pretty good
train of mid clouds extending westward into central KS. 12z NAM and
latest RAP h7 condensation pressure deficit progs depict this cloud
cover with broken cloud cover over the southern half of the CWA
through mid afternoon. If this pans out it will likely chop off a few
degrees from our temperatures resulting in heat indices a little
below criteria. Will monitor trends and adjust the advisory as
needed.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM| CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Hot and humid again today with plenty of instability around for
storms to work with. Watching two areas of storms early this morning,
the first across northeast KS associated with the low-level jet and a
stronger convective complex dropping out of western IA. Models are
not handling either of these systems very well so it will be
interesting to see if/how they interact. For now it looks like most
forcing with the low-level jet and thus the heaviest rain will stay
across northeast KS, but with so much uncertainty with these
colliding features there`s the definite possibility that storms with
heavy rain could last beyond 7 AM for parts of the area. While the
most likely area for heavy rain to occur appears to be over
northeast KS into far northwest MO, there`s too much uncertainty to
get too detailed with exact location and will therefore extend the
entire flash flood watch until noon.
Final weak mid-level impulse should clear the area by early
afternoon and bring a gradual clearing trend. Assuming ample
sunshine later today, temperatures should be able to climb into the
lower or middle 90s across areas south of a Maryville to Moberly
line where continued high dewpoints will yield heat index values in
the 100 to 105 range. This lines up well with the ongoing heat
advisory.
Subtle height rises Monday and Tuesday will shift the storm track
mostly north of our area although it wouldn`t be surprising to see an
isolated instability-driven thunderstorm over northern MO on Monday.
This will also bring slightly warmer temperatures into the area both
days with highs in the lower/mid 90s across the entire forecast area.
Urban parts of KC may even see upper 90s. Heat index values look to
again exceed 105 on Monday and probably Tuesday as well although
dewpoints may be a bit lower on Tuesday. Will hold off on any heat
headlines for now but additional advisories may be needed.
Showers and storms area again possible Tuesday night into Wednesday
when a weak front will drop into the area. This will bring
temperatures back to seasonal normals for the remainder of the week
with highs in the upper 80s to near 90.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 609 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
Scattered storms will continue for the next 2 to 3 hours before
things start to dry out by late morning and early afternoon. Quiet
weather expected after that time.
&&
.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ025-057-060-
102>105.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening for MOZ001>004-011>014-
020>023-028>033-037>040-043>046-053-054.
&&
$$
UPDATE...MJ
DISCUSSION...Hawblitzel
AVIATION...Hawblitzel
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
653 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.
Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.
There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.
Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.
For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.
By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
For the KSGF/KJLN/KBBG tafs: VFR conditions are expected. Similar
conditions to the past 24 hours are expected with a warm front
north of the area. An unstable air mass is in place and
thunderstorms are possible but it`s hard to determine timing and
placement. Overall better chances will be north and northeast of
the taf sites.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...DSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SPRINGFIELD MO
304 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Cloud cover and precipitation was breaking out over eastern Kansas
and northern Missouri early this morning. This area was on the
northeast periphery of a summertime high that failed to expand
into the Ozarks like the models were suggesting.
Therefore, our heat headlines could be in jeopardy of not
verifying if convective trends continue to increase through the morning
hours.
There is also some indications that convection could begin to
wane, while cloud cover dissipates as mid level height rises
commence.
Therefore we have decided to leave headlines alone for now.
Regarding precipitation chances, we have confined the better
chances over the eastern Ozarks, as the HRRR suggests focused
storm development along the Highway 63 corridor through the
morning hours.
For tonight, thunderstorms can not be ruled out as there are some
convective signals present, particularly in central Missouri. Look
for overnight lows struggling to cool out of the mid to upper 70s.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
We still think the summer high will finally expand over southern
Missouri, mitigating thunderstorm development Monday through
Tuesday night. Temperatures look hot and heat indices will again
threaten to rise above advisory criteria.
By Wednesday, models have been consistently showing the approach
of our next cold front. This feature will trigger our next decent
chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures will cool back into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.
Both the GFS and the ECMWF have the summer high refocusing over
the western United States for next weekend. Therefore the Ozarks
will experience near normal or slightly below normal temperatures,
with low chances for showers and thunderstorms next Saturday and
Sunday.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR conditions are expected to prevail into Sunday evening with
partly cloudy skies. There will be a low chance for an isolated
shower or thunderstorm late tonight around Joplin and
Springfield, but chances look too low to include in the TAFs at
this time. Surface winds will remain light out of the south.
&&
.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
MOZ055>058-067>071-078>083-089>092-094>098-101>106.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR MOZ066-077-088-093.
KS...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
FOR KSZ073-097-101.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cramer
LONG TERM...Cramer
AVIATION...Schaumann
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS. AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO. IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST. HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. IT IS UNCERTAIN IF THIS LINE WILL
DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION OF STORMS FROM THE NORTH PLATTE TAF. OTHERWISE SOUTH WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1136 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IMPACTING
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 25.18Z NAM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
BETTER THAN 40-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THE OPERATIONAL EMC RAP INDICATES ONLY A WEAK CAP
PRESENT. BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHEN LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA PROMOTES UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO A MCS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN IF THE
SOLUTION VERIFIES AS PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1.75" ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...SO HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL.
THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS AT CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THIS
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CAP
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
STORM CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY WESTERN
SANDHILLS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXIST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...LEAVING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA ACROSS OUR ZONES. WILL MONITOR.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WEST OF VTN THROUGH BBW.
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM AND GFS...INCREASED POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
WORK INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN ZONES.
ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND
MOVED POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF
MOISTURE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY. COVERAGE HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 92 TO 98 MONDAY...COOLING TO LOWER
80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. FOR THE KLBF
TERMINAL...THERE WILL BE THE THREAT FOR MVFR VISBYS WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE IN THE PLATTE RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY MORNING. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THE
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE AFTER 22Z AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL...AND AFTER 00Z MONDAY AT THE KLBF TERMINAL.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...CLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BUFFALO NY
326 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WARM AND HUMID THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
PER LATEST HRRR RUN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS CLOSE TO THE NEW
YORK/PENNSYLVANIA BORDER IN VICINITY OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND INSTABILITY AXIS. NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL END ANY CONVECTION
THAT DEVELOPS BY MID TO LATE EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE LATER TONIGHT WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL PROMOTE SOME
SOUTHERN TIER VALLEY FOG. DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S AND A LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL AGAIN KEEP MILD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT DESPITE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES.
MONDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE ODD MODEL OUT WITH PRINTING
OUT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF AND NAM INSIST ON IT BEING DRY.
CONSIDERING THE MOISTURE PROFILE FROM THE GFS SOUNDINGS...IT IS
LOOKING LIKE THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY AND THE MODEL IS PRODUCING
PRECIPITATION OUT OF THAT. HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH
CAPPING AND WITH NO FORCING THINK THAT A DRY FORECAST IS THE WAY
TO GO. THE DRYNESS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKY
AND WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE 850 MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO AROUND
18C WHICH WOULD MIX OUT TO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY SHOULD FIZZLE OUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
MONDAY EVENING...LEAVING BEHIND A DRY AND QUIET REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS SURFACE-BASED RIDGING SETTLES DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...NIGHTTIME
LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND NORTH COUNTRY TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S ELSEWHERE.
DURING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE...WHILE THE NORTHERN
EXTENSION OF ITS PARENT 595 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT MID
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. CONSEQUENTLY...OUR
REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND BUILDING HEIGHTS/INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
ALOFT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS LEADING TO A RETURN
OF MIDSUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
UNDER THIS REGIME...850 MB TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO BETWEEN +17C AND
+18C TUESDAY AND TO THE +19C TO +20C RANGE WEDNESDAY. TRANSLATING
THESE TO THE SURFACE...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH INTO THE 85-90
RANGE TUESDAY AND TO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S ON WEDNESDAY. ON
BOTH DAYS...THE COOLEST READINGS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE LAKES...WHILE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE GENESEE VALLEY
AND FINGER LAKES...WHERE A FEW SPOTS COULD EVEN PUSH THE MID 90S
ON WEDNESDAY IF THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER GFS GUIDANCE VERIFIES. AT THE
SAME TIME... SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 60S TUESDAY BEFORE RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL LEND AN INCREASINGLY MUGGY FEEL TO OUR
AIRMASS.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO REMAIN VERY LOW
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHILE A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN THE HEAT OF EACH
DAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT GENERAL LARGE-SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER SHOULD GENERALLY
KEEP OUR WEATHER DRY RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ALL OF THIS WILL THEN CHANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART
OF THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS
ONTARIO PROVINCE AND INTO WESTERN QUEBEC...WHILE SWINGING ITS
ATTENDANT TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK. GIVEN THAT THE FRONT WILL BE INTERACTING WITH A VERY WARM
AND HUMID AIRMASS AS IT PUSHES EAST...WOULD EXPECT AT LEAST SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO CROSS THE AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH ITS
PASSAGE. THIS STATED...ANY POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER TO SEVERE
CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE GREATLY LIMITED AT THIS JUNCTURE DUE TO
THE UNFAVORABLE NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING TIME FRAME...UNIMPRESSIVE
SHEAR PROFILES...AND THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
RIGHT ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF.
FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE
AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A
RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AREAWIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS IN TIME FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT. LOOKING AT THINGS MORE SPECIFICALLY...AFTER A
SULTRY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO
FALL MUCH BELOW THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S...DAYTIME HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL PULL BACK A BIT INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...BEFORE
FALLING OFF TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL ALSO FALL BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S THROUGH THE
COURSE OF THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE DRY/QUIET AND MORE
COMFORTABLE WEATHER ESTABLISHED LATE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SURFACE-BASED HIGH PRESSURE
AND DRY AIR REMAINING DOMINANT ACROSS OUR REGION. WITH 850 MB
TEMPS LOOKING TO RANGE BETWEEN +12C AND +14C PER A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF...EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE RIGHT AROUND THE 80
DEGREE MARK.
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...A GENERAL LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NORTHEAST... WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES PASSING
THROUGH THIS FLOW AND TRAVERSING OUR REGION IN THE PROCESS. WITH
SOME MOISTURE ALSO RETURNING INTO OUR AREA OUT AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY
BE ON A SLOW BUT GENERAL INCREASE OVER TIME...WITH A LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON SATURDAY PERHAPS GIVING WAY TO
SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES FOR SUCH BY SUNDAY AS A SOMEWHAT MORE
PRONOUNCED IMPULSE WORKS INTO THE REGION. WITH ALL OF THE ABOVE IN
MIND...HAVE INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SATURDAY RISING INTO THE
LOW CHANCE RANGE BY SUNDAY...WHILE KEEPING TEMPERATURES RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER
AND FINGER LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCSH INCLUDED IN THE KJHW TAF
BUT ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES. LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AREA EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.
TONIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LAKE ERIE WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES KEEPING VFR EXCEPT AT KJHW WHERE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG MAY BRING MVFR/IFR VSBYS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
MORNING RIVER VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN TIER.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRIDAY...VFR.
&&
.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK WITH
GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
&&
.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BINGHAMTON NY
157 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK LOW MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO SUNDAY. MUCH WARMER AIR
WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE LOW MONDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. HIGH/S WEDNESDAY WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER 90S IN
SOME AREAS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
750 PM UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE A GOOD
HANDLE ON THE ONGOING CONVECTION AND WILL FOLLOW. AS EXPECTED
CONVECTION HAS PICKED UP A BIT IN THE PAST HOUR AND WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND WHILE TRACKING EAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL MAINLY
IMPACT NORTH OF THE NY/PA LINE. INCREASED POPS HERE TO LIKELY. BY
03Z AS THE CONVECTION BEGINS TO MOVE EAST OF I-81 IT SHOULD WEAKEN
A BIT WITH TIME. LATEST HI RESOLUTION GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS MORE
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS CNY AND THE FINGER LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
WILL CONTINUE WITH A HIGH CHANCE POP HERE. THE PREVIOUS AFD IS
BELOW.
MODELS CONT TO SHOW A WEAK SYSTEM MVG THRU LTR
TNGT CONTG TO WEAKEN IN TIME. MODEL QPF AND FCST REFLECTIVITY HAS
BACKED OFF SO HAVE LWRD POPS BACK INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY OVRNGT.
ESSENTIALLY THE SHRT WV SUPPORT FOR PCPN IS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
LVG ONLY SOME LL CONV AND WEAK INSTABILITY SUPPORTED BY A BRIEF
LWRG OF HGTS AS THE WV PASSES. ALSO...WITH A LRG HIGH OVER THE SRN
PLAINS...SYSTEM HAS LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. MID LVL WRMG
LIMITS THE AVBL CAPE AND EVEN THE NAM ONLY HAS CAPES OF A FEW
HNDRD OVRNGT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUBTLE FEATURES AT WORK ON SUN AS THE MODELS SHOW PCPN LINGERING
OVER THE NE CST AND PERHAPS INTO THE XTRM SERN ZONES SUN. SYSTEM
KIND OF STALLS AS THE RDG OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND WRN NY BEGINS
TO BLD TRAPPING THE TROF BETWEEN IT AND A RDG OVER THE WRN
ATLANTIC. WITH INCRSD HTG A SHWR OR TSTM PSBL OVER THE NEPA ZONES
AND PERHAPS INTO THE WRN CATS.
RDG BLDS IN SOLIDLY FOR MON AND TUE WITH SHRP HGT RISES. TEMPS
MON AFTN AND ESP TUE COULD RCH INTO THE LWR 90S...ESP IN THE SUSQ
VLYS AND ALONG THE LAKE PLAIN FROM SYR WWRD. WRN CATS AND THE TUG
HILL WILL BE THE COOLEST PLACE TO BE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
345 PM UPDATE...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE TYPICAL LATE JULY SUMMER
WEATHER ARRIVING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. AN ANOMALOUS H5 RIDGE IS
PROGGED TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY...THEN BREAK DOWN AGAIN FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. HEIGHTS/THKNS AND H85 TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM THIS
WEEK...PEAKING AT 1 SD ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY WHICH REALLY
ONLY MEANS WE SHOULD SEE THE UPR 80S/LOW 90S. PWATS ALSO SURGE ON
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FOR ONE OF
THOSE HOT/HUMID DAYS AND MUGGY NIGHTS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT SHOT AT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY WITH
ADVERTISED COLD FRONT DISPLACING THE HEAT. THEN...BROAD CYCLONIC
NWLY FLOW APPEARS TO SET UP AGAIN WITH NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS NEXT FRI-SAT WITH MAINLY DRY WX.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUN UPDATE... THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT OF KSYR AND KRME
BY AROUND 07Z. RESIDUAL SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK
SHOULD THEN STAY PRIMARILY NORTH AND EAST OF OUR TERMINAL SITES.
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD FORM...MAINLY IN THE 08-12Z TIME
FRAME...ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OCCUR. THIS
SEEMED MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR AT KELM...SO A PERIOD OF BELOW
ALTERNATE MINIMUM CONDITIONS WAS INCLUDED. ELSEWHERE FOR OUR
CENTRAL NY SITES (KSYR/KRME/KITH/KBGM)...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AND
LIGHT FOG WERE ADDED.
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SEEMED MOST LIKELY TO
OCCUR AT KBGM AND KAVP...SO PROB30 GROUPS WERE WERE INCLUDED FOR
THESE SITES. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...WITH SURFACE WINDS VEERING INTO THE WEST BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON...AT 5-10 KT.
LATER SUNDAY NIGHT...AREAS OF VALLEY FOG COULD DEVELOP...SO WE`VE
ADDED SOME RESTRICTIONS TO KELM AFTER 04Z MONDAY.
.OUTLOOK...
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...VFR.
THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM/HEDEN
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...JAB/MLJ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
1039 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT
TO UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT.
THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS STABILIZATION
ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.
SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ENDED...WITH SOME CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOVING
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS MAY HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT
EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 07Z MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A
BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM MONDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
939 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.
WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM MONDAY...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN NC...INVOF KGSO AND KINT...WITH HI-RES NWP MODELS INDICATING
THE STORMS DIMINISHING BY 03Z.
PER FCST SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS...WITH
CEILINGS AT KFAY EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.
ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A BROKEN FLAT CU LAYER BY MID-LATE
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE PIEDMONT AIRPORTS(KGSO/KINT/KRDU)ONCE
AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS.
OUTLOOK: THE PROBABILITY FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN
AREAS ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
815 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL. MEAN STEERING FLOW WOULD
USHER CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC-SW VA INTO THE
NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST-SOUTH DOES THE SCATTERED CONVECTION GO BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAKES A RUN FOR THE
TRIANGLE AREA BUT DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE
CROSSING THE REGION. CONSIDERING THAT A MINOR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS THE TRIANGLE...APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT EXITS THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESS E-SE INTO THE
TRIANGLE AREA. THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS BY EARLY TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG
AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN A MILE OR TWO. LOW CEILINGS
MAY COVER MORE OF THE REGION THAN WHAT OCCURRED EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT MAY
TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. MIN TEMPS 69-73.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.
WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 815 PM MONDAY...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS ACROSS
WESTERN NC...INVOF KGSO AND KINT...WITH HI-RES NWP MODELS INDICATING
THE STORMS DIMINISHING BY 03Z.
PER FCST SOUNDINGS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
WILL SEE THE BEST CHANCE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS/STRATUS...WITH
CEILINGS AT KFAY EXPECTED TO LOWER TO IFR/LIFR. ADDITIONALLY...ANY
AREAS THAT SEE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS EVENING COULD SEE LOCALLY DENSE
FOG.
ANY STRATUS/FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A BROKEN FLAT CU LAYER BY MID-LATE
MORNING. EXPECT MAINLY DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE PIEDMONT AIRPORTS(KGSO/KINT/KRDU)ONCE
AGAIN THE FAVORED AREAS.
OUTLOOK: THE PROBABILITY FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE POPS IN THE WEST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO EASTERN
AREAS ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE FRONT COULD
POTENTIALLY STALL NEAR THE COAST.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...CBL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1052 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
945 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
937 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
HAZARDS TO AVIATION INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND STRONG
WINDS TUESDAY. AT 6 PM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST. COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL FOLLOW AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TONIGHT. AS THE LOW EXITS THE REGION TUESDAY STRONG WEST WINDS OF
30 TO 45KTS WILL SPREAD FROM THE WEST TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
FOR NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
634 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
TIMING OF THUNDER CHANCES MAIN CHALLENGE. BROUGHT T INTO DVL
AROUND 07Z...VALLEY SITES 09-10Z AND LATER FARTHER EAST. WITH LATE
ARRIVAL NOT SURE HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL BE HOLDING TOGETHER AS
LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE. COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBY IN STRONGER STORMS OTHERWISE VFR. STRONG WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE DVL BASIN.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA. TEMPS OVERALL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG EARLY MONDAY...BUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
257 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN WEST OF A MINOT TO
DICKINSON LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TOME TO
INCLUDE TSRA IN TAFS. WILL KEEP VCNTY FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT. THEN A
STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD NORTHWEST. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
102 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
DISCUSSED WITH WFO BIS... HRRR EXPERIMENTAL RUNS AND HRRR
OPERATIONAL RUNS BOTH THAVE SOME SFC BASED CONVECTION IN NW ND
SPREADING EAST INTO FAR NW FCST AREA IN THAT 23Z-03Z PERIOD AND
AFTER SEEING IT FOR SEVERAL RUNS WILL ADD IN A LOW POPS FOR THAT
AREA LANGDON-CANDO-LEEDS. OTHERWISE SUNNY AND VERY WARM.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. PREFER
THE GFS OVER ALL OTHER MODELS THIS MORNING...SINCE GFS KEEPS THE
CAP IN PLACE THE LONGEST FOR MONDAY AND THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE
GIVEN WARM MID LEVELS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM PERHAPS...BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND ADD THIS THREAT IF NEEDED TODAY WITH NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO AND HAVE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
POPS HERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO
THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR
EAST. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100...DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN WARM. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUE...THERE MAY BE A SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...50KT LLJ AND FORCING WITH A SFC
LOW/FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT...AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EAST BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUN...A DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BRING
CONVECTION TO EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG EARLY MONDAY...BUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...RIDDLE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1252 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE BIS-JMS SO
USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON SHORE ACROSS
WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE COLD FRONT IT
WILL BECOME ONLY MAKE IT TO WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE TONIGHT IN RESPONSE
TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL DIMINISH CENTRAL
AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ADVANCING INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA THIS
MORNING BUT WILL SLOW AS THE WINDS ALOFT BECOME PARALLEL WITH THE
FRONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT LOOK
REASONABLE TODAY. SHEAR IS WEAK ACROSS THE REGION AND BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA (BIS-JMS) HAVE A MID LEVEL CAP
IN PLACE THAT SHOULD KEEP THE THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE WEST
TODAY. SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE ELEVATED TERRAIN SOUTHWEST OF
MINOT MIXING LOW LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND SO UPPED THE
WINDS VICINITY OF MINOT TO 15 TO 25 MPH TODAY.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
PATCHY FOG CONTINUES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. NO
FORECAST CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR THE NEAR TERM/EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE
A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WILL CONTINUE WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.
THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BEHIND AN EXITING SHORTWAVE IN EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. UPSTREAM...A SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SHORTWAVES SEEN
OVER WESTERN MONTANA MOVING NORTHEAST WITH TIME. REGIONAL RADAR
WAS INDICATING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA. THIS WAS ALONG A SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT
STRETCHED FROM SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. THE
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLIDE INTO NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
BETWEEN 10 AM AND 1 PM...THEN MAKE SOME HEADWAY THROUGH WESTERN
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. THE RAP13 AND 4KM
NAM CONUSNEST REFLECTIVITY`S ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH GENERATING A
NARROW LINE/AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE EASTERN EDGE OF
THE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO MAKE IT ALONG A LINE FROM MINOT TO
GARRISON AND INTO HEBRON AND HETTINGER LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FRONT STALLS SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT AND STRENGTHENING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
INITIATES OVER EASTERN MONTANA ALONG WITH INCREASING 925MB-850MB
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. BEST CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER NORTHWEST
AND FAR NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WHERE ELEVATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK TODAY/TONIGHT...THUS STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE MAIN MESSAGE THIS AFTERNOON AND
LATER TONIGHT. A LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING/SHORTWAVES WILL
RESULT IN A DRY FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE HOTTER
TODAY AND A BIT MORE UNCOMFORTABLE AS H85 TEMPERATURES ARE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. THIS RESULTS IN AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
ISSUE 1...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN
THIRD OF NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THE ENTIRE NWS BISMARCK FORECAST
AREA...MONDAY EVENING INTO THE NIGHT.
ISSUE 2...BREEZY TO WINDY MONDAY...THEN WINDY EAST TO VERY WINDY
WEST ON TUESDAY WITH THE LIKELIHOOD THAT A WIND ADVISORY WILL NEED
TO BE POSTED FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
TUESDAY...WEST.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH...DIGGING ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST TODAY...
BRINGS SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA FOR MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES IN THAT FLOW. THEY MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE STATE UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY AS THE LONG WAVE PUSHES
EAST. WITH THAT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AREA EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WILL BE
DRY MOST OF THE DAY...WITH STORM CHANCES THERE NOT INCREASING
UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON AT THE EARLIEST.
THE SURFACE FEATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH THE THERMAL GRADIENT VERY IMPRESSIVE.
THIS...AND A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW...ADVECTS 70+ DEW POINT AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY. WITH INCREASING MOISTURE...
INCREASING INSTABILITY...A STRONG THERMAL GRADIENT...AND
FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER RESULTS FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WEST...AND ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND NIGHT.
THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE ARE MONDAY NIGHT AND A TIGHT GRADIENT
RESULTS IN WHAT SHOULD BE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND SPEEDS ON
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. ALONG WITH
THIS IS A NEARLY 25 DEGREE TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM MONDAY HIGHS TO
TUESDAY HIGHS OVER THE WILLISTON AREA.
DRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR THE 18Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO WEST
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON BUT REMAIN WEST OF A MINOT TO
DICKINSON LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FROM IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT BUT TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TOME TO INCLUDE
TSRA IN TAFS. WILL KEEP VCNTY FROM KDIK-KISN-KMOT. THEN A STRONG
UPPER LOW WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD NORTHWEST. THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 12Z. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1015 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
NO CHANGES IN THE FCST YET. HRRR STILL HAS SOME CONVECTION
ENTERING NW FCST AREA 22Z-23Z PERIOD BUT UPPER RIDGE BUILDING PER
WATER VAPOR SHOULD KEEP IT A BIT MORE NORTHWEST. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES AND TEMPS. PREFER
THE GFS OVER ALL OTHER MODELS THIS MORNING...SINCE GFS KEEPS THE
CAP IN PLACE THE LONGEST FOR MONDAY AND THIS MAKES THE MOST SENSE
GIVEN WARM MID LEVELS.
FOR TODAY...EXPECT A HOT AND DRY DAY FOR THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE A RENEGADE SHOWER OR STORM PERHAPS...BUT WILL GO WITH A DRY
FORECAST AND ADD THIS THREAT IF NEEDED TODAY WITH NO FORCING TO
SPEAK OF. HEAT INDICES WILL WARM WELL INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100
IF DEWPOINTS CAN WARM INTO THE LOW 70S. WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEAT
ADVISORY...BUT MENTION THIS HAZARD IN THE HWO AND HAVE DAY SHIFT
MONITOR THREAT.
FOR TONIGHT...IT WILL BE DRY AND WARM WITH PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT
CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL
POPS HERE...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH COVERAGE AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ON MONDAY...IT WILL BE HOT ONCE AGAIN WITH TEMPS AROUND 90 OR INTO
THE LOW 90S FOR MOST AREAS...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IN THE FAR
EAST. HEAT INDICES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE MID/UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100...DEPENDING ON HOW HIGH DEWPOINTS CAN WARM. IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH A STRONG CAP IN PLACE.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
FOR MONDAY NIGHT/TUE...THERE MAY BE A SEVERE MCS THAT WILL MOVE
FROM WESTERN/CENTRAL ND DURING THE EVENING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE INCREASING DEEP LAYERED
SHEAR...STRONG INSTABILITY...50KT LLJ AND FORCING WITH A SFC
LOW/FRONT MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST INTO TUESDAY. WE WILL INCREASE
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT...AND SPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IN ALL AREAS. THE MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE EAST BY TUE AFTERNOON...WITH INCREASING
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH BY AFTERNOON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE VALLEY.
FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SUN...A DEPARTING UPPER LOW WILL BRING
CONVECTION TO EASTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THEN DOMINATES THE WORK WEEK AS
A NORTHWEST FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THERE ARE SOME PATCHES OF IFR NEAR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING...GIVING WAY TO VFR
CONDITIONS. THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY STORMS WITH MINIMAL
FORCING...SO WILL KEEP ALL SITES DRY.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...DK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITING
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH LOCAL RADAR INDICATING DWINDLING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHEAST BURLEIGH...NORTHERN
KIDDER...AND SOUTHERN WELLS COUNTIES. EXPECTING A COUPLE MORE
HOURS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEFORE ENDING. LATEST HRRR SHOWS LOWER
VISIBILITIES FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM MOBRIDGE TO ABERDEEN AND
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE BORDER BY 11Z. WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG
OVER THE FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY GIVEN
LINTON IS ALREADY AT SATURATION. ONLY OTHER UPDATE WAS TO RAISE
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WEST GIVEN THEY ARE RUNNING
WARMER THAN FORECAST AND SCT/BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS UPSTREAM WILL
BE ENTERING THE NORTHWEST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY. REST OF
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
AREAS OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
EAST. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH...AND EXPECT
THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. THEREFORE...WILL TRIM POPS DOWN...ONLY
KEEPING LOW POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING TO THE EAST
OF THE STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS A MODEST SHORT WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. AS THE
STORMS PUSH EAST...GREATER INSTABILITY HAS ALLOWED A FEW STORMS TO
STRENGTHEN BUT STILL HOLD BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHANCES IN THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE STORMS PUSH EAST...THOUGH
EXPECT COVERAGE TO DECREASE AS THE EVENING WEARS ON.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
MID LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM THE OREGON/WASHINGTON
COAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY ONE SHORTWAVE IS MOVING EAST THROUGH WESTERN
MONTANA/IDAHO AND WILL REACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY. CLOSER TO HOME ANOTHER WEAK FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH
EASTERN WYOMING AND SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND WILL SUPPORT SOME
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WITH THESE TWO FEATURES A RATHER MARGINAL
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE BIT WITH WEAK SURFACE FEATURES. DO
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT GOING MUCH ABOVE 30 TO 40 POPS TONIGHT WITH
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. HAVE DISCOUNTED THE GFS AS IT SEEMS
THE OUTLIER BETWEEN THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF. IT GENERATES GENEROUS
PRECIP AMOUNTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM/ECMWF ARE
MUCH DRIER.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WILL SEE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE STORMS MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WINDY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE WITH PLENTY OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE MAIN LONGWAVE
TROUGH OFF THE WEST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES
MONDAY AS IT BEGINS TO CLOSE OFF AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
NORTHERN FRONT RANGE BY MONDAY EVENING. THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND
CONTINUES MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
TUESDAY...REACHING LAKE SUPERIOR BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD FRONT RANGE LOW/TROUGH WILL BE IN
PLACE SUNDAY NIGHT...REACHING THE BORDER OF ND/SD/WY/MT BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL KEEP
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...EVEN INTO THE LOWER 70S IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL IMPULSES COMBINED WITH A GOOD SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY/CAPE FOR CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY WEST AND NORTH ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW/TROUGH.
MONDAY EXPECTING MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FROM THE NIGHTTIME
HOURS...BUT WITH TIME A MID-LEVEL THERMAL CAP SHOULD DEVELOP KEEPING
MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA DRY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS EXPECTED MONDAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER 90S
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
BY LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THE CAP MAY BREAK IN THE WEST NEAR THE
SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES EASTWARD SLOWLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES THE STATE...AND
IN TURN THE SURFACE TROUGH BEGINS MOVING EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS IS THE TIME THAT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...SPREADING EAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. THE
BEST CAPE/BULK SHEAR COUPLET DEVELOPS LATE AFTERNOON MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND EXPECTING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS THIS PERIOD. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AS WELL AS MENTION
THIS IN THE GRAPHICAL GRIDS.
TUESDAY THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS OUR
REGION...AND STRONG WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS DEVELOP BEHIND THE
SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR TUESDAY AS
COOLER AIR IS USHERED IN BEHIND THIS FRONT. LOOKING AT HIGHS FROM 70
NORTHWEST TO LOWER 80S IN THE JAMES VALLEY...WITH WEST WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH. WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS ON TUESDAY.
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A
WARMING TREND.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
VFR CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED NEAR
AND SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT AROUND 18Z
SUNDAY AS IT ENTERS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
POSSIBLY AFFECTING KISN/KDIK/KMOT. A VCTS HAS BEEN MENTIONED AT
THESE TERMINALS. KBIS AND KJMS WILL REMAIN DRY.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
930 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.
LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.
KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.
WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.
MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES AND WILL
STALL OUT ACROSS KY OVERNIGHT. ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED THIS AFTN IN THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. THESE STORMS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ARE DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
LIGHT WINDS AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF DRYING NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MVFR
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH IFR CONDITIONS FOR
KCVG/KLUK AND KILN. LOW STRATOCUMULUS OR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT IS
ALSO POSSIBLE...THOUGH NOT AS CERTAIN AS THE REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY.
FOG WILL BURN OFF EARLY ON TUESDAY WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. MID LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION
ON TUESDAY...WHICH WILL WORK TO INHIBIT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO
OCCUR OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DUE
TO THE LIMITED COVERAGE...HAVE ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND
KLUK TUESDAY AFTN.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
149 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG IN NW OHIO CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE SO HAVE REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THE
MOST LIKELY SITES TO EXPERIENCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAK/YNG
THROUGH 21Z WITH A CHANCE OF PRIMARILY SHOWERS EXTENDING WEST TO
MFD. VISIBILITIES COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR IN SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY FROM THE NORTH WITH CLEARING SKIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
LIGHT AND VARIALBE OVERNIGHT. MVFR VISIBILITIES COULD RETURN
OVERNIGHT AT CAK/YNG IN BR.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...KEC
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
950 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG IN NW OHIO CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE SO HAVE REMOVED FROM THE
FORECAST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS OTHERWISE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTH LATER
TODAY. WILL KEEP A SMALL MENTION.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL EXPAND MORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NON VFR THIS MORNING. ALSO PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KTOL FIRST THING THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK/KUBINA
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
740 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS A BIT MAINLY
EAST. ALSO ADDED PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE DISSIPATED SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE GRIDS...HOWEVER TREND
REMAINS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP SO ZONES
WILL STILL REFLECT THAT.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE U.S. SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. SCT-BKN MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED
WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...WILL EXPAND MORE THIS MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING TO VFR AND THEN SCATTERING THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
PLACES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF NON VFR THIS MORNING. ALSO PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY AT KTOL FIRST THING THIS MORNING. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SUNDAY OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
630 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
STRATUS IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS SO HAVE INCREASED MORNING CLOUDS A BIT MAINLY
EAST. ALSO ADDED PATCHY MORNING FOG FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA. SHOWERS THAT WERE IN THE AREA MUCH OF THE NIGHT
HAVE DISSIPATED SO REMOVED THEM FROM THE GRIDS...HOWEVER TREND
REMAINS THAT SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP SO ZONES
WILL STILL REFLECT THAT.
ORIGINAL...WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE
NRN COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...BUT EXPECTING SOME MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR TO
DEVELOP FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING. TOL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
IFR WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR
MOST OTHERS EXPECTING AN EARLY MVFR SCT-BKN SKY TO LIFT TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW OR WIDESPREAD AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME NON VFR FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IT TO THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CLEVELAND OH
324 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WILL MOVE SOUTH EARLY TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. THE HIGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK COLD FRONT ABOUT TO MOVE INTO THE CWA WITH A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ACROSS THE NRN
COUNTIES. EXPECTING THIS CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO
STABILIZE. THROUGH THE MORNING THE FRONT WILL SLOW AS IT REACHES
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. THE NAM12 AND HRRR BOTH SHOW
SCATTERED/WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION REDEVELOPING INLAND MAINLY
EAST HALF OF THE AREA AFTER NOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE/SLIGHT
CHANCE FROM MNN ENE THROUGH CRAWFORD COUNTY PA THIS MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. MID/LATE AFTERNOON MODELS BRING ENOUGH
DRIER AIR IN WITH THE HIGH THAT AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE PUSHED
SOUTH. FOR TEMPS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MET NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
FOR TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY STABLE
AIRMASS WILL BE IN CONTROL. 850MB TEMPS 18 TO 20C SUPPORT HIGHS
FROM 85 TO 90 ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY TO END THE
WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE PULLED BACK SOME...LOWER
80S/SEASONABLE. THERE MAY BE A FEW EXTRA CLOUDS AROUND SATURDAY AS A
WARM FRONT BRUSHES THE AREA AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST JUST YET FOR DAY 7
WITH MARGINAL SETUP DEPENDENT UPON TIMING.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE CANADIAN SHORELINE AND WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE. CURRENTLY CONDITIONS ARE VFR
OUTSIDE OF PRECIP...BUT EXPECTING SOME MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR TO
DEVELOP FROM NOW THROUGH MID MORNING. TOL HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
IFR WITH PREVIOUS RAINFALL...CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. FOR
MOST OTHERS EXPECTING AN EARLY MVFR SCT-BKN SKY TO LIFT TO VFR BY
AFTERNOON. DID NOT GO QUITE AS LOW OR WIDESPREAD AS SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS...BUT THINK THERE WILL BE SOME NON VFR FOR A
TIME THIS MORNING AND THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IT TO THE TAFS. LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GO LIGHT NORTH AND BE LIGHT/VRB BY SUNDAY
EVENING. CLEAR SUNDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK...SOME NON VFR POSSIBLE WITH SHRA/TS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AND FIRST THING THURSDAY MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS...AS OF 3 AM...WORKING ITS WAY SOUTHEAST
ACROSS LAKE ERIE. SOUTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DOMINATE FROM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS ON THE LAKE.
FLOW WILL BE SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND
A COLD FRONT WILL BE WORKING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE ERIE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FOR THURSDAY. WEST WINDS MAY PICK UP JUST ENOUGH ON THURSDAY
TO YIELD 2 TO 4 FOOT WAVES ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT AS OF NOW THAT
IS JUST A POSSIBILITY.
&&
.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TK
NEAR TERM...TK
SHORT TERM...TK
LONG TERM...OUDEMAN
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
639 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER
EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALL NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY
BORDER. PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB LLJ
IS MAINTAINING PRE DAWN SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB JET MAX. FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED EARLY TODAY ACROSS MY AREA...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. HRRR
COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS BEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE LAST TUESDAY...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INITIAL H5 RIDGING.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY... RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS FLATTENS 5H RIDGE AXIS OVER PA BY
00Z MON. MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 22Z...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
H5 TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH H5 RIDGING
RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST. THUS POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IN VICINITY OF DEPARTING
UPPER TROF...DECREASING LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUN MAXES. NORTHWEST HALF OF
PA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINS SOUPY WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.
DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BRIEF IFR AT BFD HAS GIVEN WAY TO MVFR WITH THE REST OF THE TAF
SITES REMAINING VFR. EXPECT VFR TO DOMINATE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE DAY. THIS WILL CHANGE AS A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST...BEGINNING AROUND
16Z.LATEST HRRR HAS IT SLOWING SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF
SITES BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON...THE CENTRAL TAF SITES
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN TAF SITES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.
ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ANY REGIONS THAT RECEIVED ANY
PRECIPITATION COULD SEE RESTRICTING VISBYS AND CIGS BETWEEN 06Z TO
12Z.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
535 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER
EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ALL NIGHT JUST NORTH OF THE PA/NY
BORDER. PERSISTENT BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB LLJ
IS MAINTAINING PRE DAWN SHRA/TSRA EAST OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS. ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE 850 MB JET MAX. FORCING AND INSTABILITY ARE
LIMITED EARLY TODAY ACROSS MY AREA...BUT PRESENCE OF BOUNDARY AND
PASSAGE OF WEAK COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WILL TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING
INTO TONIGHT...ESP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. HRRR
COVERAGE FAVORS AREAS FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR CONVECTION. DESPITE THIS BEING THE BEST
CHANCE OF RAIN SINCE LAST TUESDAY...COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO INITIAL H5 RIDGING.
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY... RANGING
THROUGH THE 60S. HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
MOST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF FROM THE CENTRAL GLAKS FLATTENS 5H RIDGE AXIS OVER PA BY
00Z MON. MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD TAKE PLACE AROUND
OR SHORTLY BEFORE 22Z...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND DECREASE LATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
H5 TROF SLIDES EAST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY MONDAY WITH H5 RIDGING
RETURNING LATE IN THE DAY ACROSS THE WEST. THUS POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGHEST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND EAST IN VICINITY OF DEPARTING
UPPER TROF...DECREASING LATE MON AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOWER SUSQ
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
MAXES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SUN MAXES. NORTHWEST HALF OF
PA WILL SEE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS ARRIVE ON MONDAY...WHILE THE
SOUTHEAST REMAINS SOUPY WITH TD VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.
DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT
FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP BFD AND JST FROM DECOUPLING AND FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING LOW ENOUGH FOR DENSE PATCHY FOG/MIST TO
FORM. HOWEVER AOO...UNV AND LNS ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR
PATCHY FOG/MIST. ANY OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR HAS IT PRESSING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
16Z TO 18Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING AND OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DEVOIR
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR
SHORT TERM...DEVOIR
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS STATE COLLEGE PA
410 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
SUNDAY. THE FRONT MAY LINGER OVER EASTERN PA ON MONDAY. SEASONABLY
WARM...HUMID AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED FOR NEXT
WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RING OF FIRE LIES JUST NORTH OF MY AREA THIS MORNING...WHERE BEST
BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE INVOF 850 MB JET IS INITIATING AND
MAINTAINING NOCTURNAL CONVECTION NORTH OF THE FINGERLAKES REGION
IN CENTRAL NEW YORK...DRIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE
CATSKILLS. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ARE TRAVERSING THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE 850 MB JET MAX...BUT WITH BEST FORCING REMAINING WELL NORTH OF
MY AREA OVERNIGHT...NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH MORE THAN THIS THROUGH
DAWN.
KEPT HIGHEST POPS WELL NORTH OF I80...GENERALLY HIGHEST ALONG AND
NORTH OF ROUTE 6. MOST AREAS WILL SEE VARYING AMTS OF ALTO CU AND
CIRRUS OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHCS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 STAND AT
LESS THAN 10 PERCENT...WHILE LOCATIONS NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF RT
6 IN NRN PA STAND THE BEST CHC OF SEEING A SHOWER.
SINCE SFC DEWPOINTS WILL BE MAINLY BETWEEN 60-65F...IT WON/T FEEL
ALL THAT MUGGY. TEMPS SHOULD HOLD IN THE 60S...BUT THE NORTHERN
VALLEYS COULD GET COOLER IF THE SKIES CLEAR OUT. OTHERWISE...
MAINTAINED PERIODS OF BKN-OVC STRATO AND ALTOCU CLOUDS ACROSS THAT
PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH SCT SKY COVER IN MOST OTHER LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THRU THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY BUT IS
ALREADY TOUGH TO FIND/ANALYZE OTHER THAN A WIND SHIFT. OF COURSE
BY THE TIME IT ARRIVES HERE...THE WIND SHIFT WILL NOT BE AS
DRASTIC AS IT IS THIS AFTN OVER LOWER MI AND SRN WI. BEFORE IT
PASSES THOUGH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CREATE SOME DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND VERY HIGH CAPES PER THE NAM WHICH IS MUCH SLOWER IN
PUSHING THE SFC FRONT THROUGH. THE GFS IS NOT SO BULLISH WITH THE
CAPES DUE TO A MUCH QUICKER FROPA. WILL HANG BACK CLOSER TO THE
TIMING SOLUTION FROM THE NAM WHICH HAS SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER
MESO MODELS AND THE ECMWF. THIS KEEP CONTINUITY WITH TIMING FROM
PREV FCSTS AS WELL. NUDGED POPS A BIT HIGHER IN THE CENTRAL AND SE
FOR THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO INCH UP THRU THE
DAY...MAKING IT HAZY HOT AND HUMID WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
80S.
SFC COLD FRONT IS GOING TO BE AN ODD THING...AS THE AIRMASS BEHIND
THE FRONT IS NOT ALL THAT MUCH DRIER. THE DEWPOINTS MAY ACTUALLY
RISE SOME SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT THE SHOWERS WILL SINK TO THE SE AND
DISSIPATE/BECOME LESS NUMEROUS.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL U.S. WILL BUILD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...AND RETROGRADE
WESTWARD TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATER IN THE WEEK AS A TROUGH
BUILDS SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN U.S.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID
ATLC LATE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WEAK COLD
FRONT. THE NRN SEGMENT SHOULD BE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE
CROSSING NEW ENGLAND WHILE THE SRN PORTION LOOKS TO STALL OUT
FROM THE OH RIVER TO THE MASON DIXON LINE. RISK FOR SHOWERS/ISOLD
TSTMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHER TIER COUNTIES ON MONDAY.
DRY PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT...THOUGH AN ISOLATED TSTM MAY STILL POP UP
ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. NEXT CHC FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN/TSTMS WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY AS NEXT TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCD
COLD FRONT REACHES THE APPALACHIANS.
BEHIND THAT SYSTEM...MAINLY DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR FRI AND SAT.
INTERESTING FEATURE NOW BEING STRONGLY HINTED AT FOR END OF
FORECAST PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR A CLOSED LOW TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AND BE ABSORBED INTO
BROAD TROUGH. THIS WOULD BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO START OF FOLLOWING WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK...WITH
A PEAK IN THE HEAT OCCURRING AROUND WED/THU WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE
MIDWEEK...AS HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH 100F IN THE LWR SUSQ
VLY. COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER RETURNS AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THE PERSISTENT
FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD KEEP BFD AND JST FROM DECOUPLING AND FROM
TEMPERATURES DROPPING LOW ENOUGH FOR DENSE PATCHY FOG/MIST TO
FORM. HOWEVER AOO...UNV AND LNS ARE THE BEST CANDIDATES FOR
PATCHY FOG/MIST. ANY OVERNIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z.
THE NEXT QUESTION IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. LATEST HRRR HAS IT PRESSING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN
16Z TO 18Z. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO BE POSSIBLE MAINLY
OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TAF SITES BY LATE MORNING AND OVER
MOST OF THE AREA IN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
TAF SITES BY LATE AFTERNOON...EARLY EVENING.
OUTLOOK...
MON-WED...MAINLY VFR WITH ISOLATED PM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...DANGELO/LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...DEVOIR/LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...CERU/GARTNER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS FROM AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT HAS PRETTY MUCH
DISSIPATED OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAIN. THE CONVECTION DID PRODUCE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR HARRISBURG ARKANSAS TO JUST SOUTH OF
JACKSON TENNESSEE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES SOUTH. AS
EXPECTED...THE CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION HAS PREVENTED HEAT
INDICES FROM REACHING ADVISORY OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN MANY
NORTHERN LOCATIONS. HOWEVER...DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED IN
LOCATIONS SUCH AS WALNUT RIDGE AND BLYTHEVILLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION. AS LINGERING CLOUD COVER THINS OUT IT MAY LEAD TO HEAT
INDICES REACHING BACK ABOVE CRITERIA AROUND 5 OR 6 PM CDT THIS
EVENING DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING A LITTLE COOLER. WILL LEAVE
HEAT ADVISORY AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AS IS.
UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING
ANY GIVEN AFTERNOON BUT PRIMARILY CONDITIONS WILL BE RAIN FREE.
SFC WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY THUS EXPECT MORE
OF THE CWA MAY NEED A HEAT ADVISORY AND BY TUESDAY THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH WILL LIKELY BE COVERED BY A HEAT ADVISORY/EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.
THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALLOWING A COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH BEST CHANCES
OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT. EXPECT HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND THUS EXPECT RAIN FREE CONDITIONS TO OCCUR.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD IMPACT KMKL AND KJBR...ADDED A VCTS
AT THOSE LOCATIONS FROM 26/19Z-26/21Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH KMEM AS
WELL THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING VCTS THERE FOR NOW. HRRR HAS
ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER MO THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AS WELL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MORNING FOG
AT JACKSON AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
RANDOLPH.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-
MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-YALOBUSHA.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MEMPHIS TN
1247 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
UPDATE...
REMNANTS FROM AN MCS THAT DEVELOPED OVER MISSOURI OVERNIGHT WILL
MOVE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH OVER THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS. THE LINE OF CONVECTION IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE IT REACHES A MILLINGTON TO SAVANNAH TENNESSEE LINE. WILL
UPDATE POPS/SKY CONDITIONS ACCORDINGLY.
THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION COULD ALSO WREAK HAVOC WITH THE HEAT
ADVISORY ACROSS EXTREME NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
AND LAKE/DYER COUNTIES IN TENNESSEE BUT WILL LEAVE FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES COULD JUMP UP QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON IF SOME
CLEARING OCCURS BRINGING HEAT INDICES ABOVE 105 DEGREES.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY...AND GRADUALLY EXPAND FROM THE WEST THROUGH
MIDWEEK. WATCHING A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (MCS) OVER CENTRAL
MO THIS MORNING THAT MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...INTO PORTIONS OF
WEST TN.
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MOSTLY IN THE 70S EXCEPT SOME LOWER 80S IN NORTHEAST AR. VERY MOIST
AIR CONTINUED ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER. JONESBORO HAD AN
IMPRESSIVE DEW POINT OF 80 DEGREES EARLIER TONIGHT.
THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE THE MOST ROBUST IN SHOWING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL...AND PORTIONS OF WEST TN TODAY. THE MCS OVER CENTRAL MO
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES GENERATE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH.
INCREASED THE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 2
INCHES IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS. OTHERWISE...THE BIG STORY FOR
TODAY CONTINUES TO BE THE HEAT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE AREAL EXTEND OF THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY...MAINLY TO TRIM THE
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING BACK A LITTLE SINCE LOWER DEW POINTS HAVE
MANAGED TO SLIP A LITTLE FURTHER WESTWARD THAN EARLIER EXPECTED
INCLUDING INTO MEMPHIS. KEPT THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING GOING FOR
JONESBORO...WILL BE CLOSE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS AND ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TODAY.
REGARDLESS...IT WILL BE HOT AND PROPER PRECAUTIONS SHOULD BE
TAKEN. HEAT INDEX READINGS BETWEEN 110 AND 112 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AREA...BETWEEN 105 AND 109
DEGREES IN THE HEAT ADVISORY AREA.
EXTENDED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING AND HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. LATER FORECASTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO EXTEND AND
EXPAND THE HEAT WARNING AND ADVISORY PRODUCTS INTO AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY PUSH EASTWARD
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...THE HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND EXPAND ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. KEPT POPS BELOW
MENTIONABLE LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH A STRAY
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE DUE TO THE EXTREME HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...KEPT IN MENTION OF A 20 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH AND RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF NORTH MS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH
DRY WEATHER LASTING INTO THE WEEKEND. A SHOT OF COOLER AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FRIDAY MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT MOSTLY IN THE 60S.
JCL
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MONITORING THE REMNANTS OF AN MCS MOVING INTO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE MIDSOUTH WHICH COULD IMPACT KMKL AND KJBR...ADDED A VCTS
AT THOSE LOCATIONS FROM 26/19Z-26/21Z. WILL NEED TO WATCH KMEM AS
WELL THOUGH WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING VCTS THERE FOR NOW. HRRR HAS
ANOTHER COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER MO THIS AFTERNOON AND DISSIPATING
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO WATCH
THAT AS WELL. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MORNING FOG
AT JACKSON AND TUPELO. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.
SJM
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CLAY-GREENE-LAWRENCE-
RANDOLPH.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-ST.
FRANCIS.
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DESOTO-LAFAYETTE-
MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-YALOBUSHA.
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR COAHOMA-TUNICA.
TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION UPDATE...
18Z TAFS...FIRST CONCERN IS POSSIBLE TSRA AT CKV WITH STORMS
MOVING OUT OF WEST KY. A TEMPO WILL BE INCLUDED FOR CKV TO COVER
THIS ACTIVITY AND POSSIBLE GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH 21Z. LOW
CONFIDENCE THE TSRA WILL HOLD TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO REACH BNA.
OTHER ISOLD TSRA MAY DEVELOP ACROSS MID TN...BUT ALSO LOW
CONFIDENCE THESE WILL IMPACT TERMINALS...SO NO TSRA WILL BE
MENTIONED FOR BNA OR CSV FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AREAS OF BR WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...WITH VSBYS AS LOW AS
2SM.
13
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TRUCKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR PAH. HRRR INSISTS MCS WILL FALL
APART BEFORE REACHING OUR CWA BUT THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS
WILL HAVE TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP UP ON
THE PLATEAU PER HRRR BUT WILL NOT ADD POPS THERE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY MORNING IS UPON US IN MIDDLE TN. LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND CALM WINDS IS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
FEW SPOTS MAY TO FALL TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY OR WORSE...BUT WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE...A FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO LEAVING ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY IS THE MCS THAT IS UPSTREAM OF THE MID-STATE. CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI AND ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK...THIS FEATURE COULD BEGIN TO
CLOSE IN ON OUR NW COUNTIES AROUND LUNCHTIME TODAY. AS IS BEING
PORTRAYED IN SOME OF HI-RES GUIDANCE...I`M NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH
IT HOLDING TOGETHER AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ITS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM GROWTH AS IT NEARS THE STATE. ON TOP OF
THIS...THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS EITHER FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
REASONING. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN NO POPS IN THE MID-
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORY OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WHILE I DON`T
LIKE SOME THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUGGESTING 96-98 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ITS STRONGEST OVER THE
STATE...A SOLID 93-95 IS LIKELY. WHILE THESE COUPLE OF DEGREES
DON`T SEEM LIKE A BIG DEAL...WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 70S EACH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB
TOWARDS TRIPLE DIGITS. IF WE DO END UP SEEING THOSE HIGHER
VALUES...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. ATTM...A 100-105
HEAT INDEX EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP US JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EITHER WAY...ITS GONNA BE HOT AND STEAMY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW EACH AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...THOUGH THIS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EACH NIGHT. LOW 70S ON
THE PLATEAU AND MIDDLE 70S WEST OF THE PLATEAU COULD MAKE FOR
UNCOMFORTABLE AIR EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MID-90S TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT
AND IF YOU CAN BELIEVE IT...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PUSH INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
DIFFUSE AT BEST WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN CANADA...SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD REAR THEIR HEADS THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS AS WE APPROACH
MID-WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THURSDAY`S FRONT WILL BE A MEMORY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-STATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RELAX AND BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
UNGER
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 92 74 / 60 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 86 69 87 70 / 10 10 30 20
COLUMBIA 94 72 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 92 72 93 74 / 60 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
1004 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MCS TO OUR NORTHWEST CONTINUES TRUCKING
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS NOW NEAR PAH. HRRR INSISTS MCS WILL FALL
APART BEFORE REACHING OUR CWA BUT THIS IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
UNLIKELY WITH CONTINUED PROGRESSION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THUS
WILL HAVE TO ADD SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS TO NORTHWEST ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OTHER ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY POP UP ON
THE PLATEAU PER HRRR BUT WILL NOT ADD POPS THERE DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE. REST OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.
SHAMBURGER
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
AVIATION UPDATE...12Z TAF`S FOR BNA/CKV/CSV...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP MIDDLE TENNESSEE DRY FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE MORNING WILL
START OFF WITH RADIATION FOG AND PERHAPS SOME LOW STRATUS, BUT
LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS THE REST OF THE
DAY AND EVENING, WITH RADIATION FOG ONCE AGAIN DROPPING VSBY`S
OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY MORNING IS UPON US IN MIDDLE TN. LOW 70S
TEMPERATURES WITH SIMILAR DEW POINTS AND CALM WINDS IS SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A
FEW SPOTS MAY TO FALL TO 1/2 MILE VISIBILITY OR WORSE...BUT WITH
THE PATCHY NATURE...A FOG ADVISORY IS NOT LIKELY THIS MORNING. FOG
WILL DISSIPATE BY 8 AM OR SO LEAVING ANOTHER DAY OF MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES. WHAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
TODAY IS THE MCS THAT IS UPSTREAM OF THE MID-STATE. CURRENTLY OVER
MISSOURI AND ON A SOUTHEAST TRACK...THIS FEATURE COULD BEGIN TO
CLOSE IN ON OUR NW COUNTIES AROUND LUNCHTIME TODAY. AS IS BEING
PORTRAYED IN SOME OF HI-RES GUIDANCE...I`M NOT REAL CONCERNED WITH
IT HOLDING TOGETHER AS RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPRESS
ITS CONTINUED DOWNSTREAM GROWTH AS IT NEARS THE STATE. ON TOP OF
THIS...THE LATEST NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CUMBERLAND PLATEAU
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. NOT
COMPLETELY SOLD ON THIS EITHER FOR THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
REASONING. FOR THIS REASON...WILL MAINTAIN NO POPS IN THE MID-
STATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THE STORY OF THE WEEK WILL ONCE AGAIN BE CLIMBING TEMPERATURES EACH
DAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS
OF THE COUNTRY TRIES TO SPREAD EASTWARD. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
CLIMB A DEGREE OR TWO EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND WHILE I DON`T
LIKE SOME THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS SUGGESTING 96-98 DEGREES BY
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE ITS STRONGEST OVER THE
STATE...A SOLID 93-95 IS LIKELY. WHILE THESE COUPLE OF DEGREES
DON`T SEEM LIKE A BIG DEAL...WHEN COUPLED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
LOW 70S EACH AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB
TOWARDS TRIPLE DIGITS. IF WE DO END UP SEEING THOSE HIGHER
VALUES...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BECOME NECESSARY. ATTM...A 100-105
HEAT INDEX EACH AFTERNOON WILL KEEP US JUST UNDER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. EITHER WAY...ITS GONNA BE HOT AND STEAMY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LOW EACH AFTERNOON...WITH BEST CHANCES EAST OF INTERSTATE
65...THOUGH THIS WILL BE ISOLATED AT BEST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE EACH NIGHT. LOW 70S ON
THE PLATEAU AND MIDDLE 70S WEST OF THE PLATEAU COULD MAKE FOR
UNCOMFORTABLE AIR EACH MORNING THROUGH MID-WEEK.
BY THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE RIDGE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THESE MID-90S TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN OUT
AND IF YOU CAN BELIEVE IT...ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD PUSH INTO
THE STATE THURSDAY MORNING. INCREASED RAIN CHANCES AND SUPPRESSED
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND WHILE THE FRONT WILL BE
DIFFUSE AT BEST WITH THE PARENT LOW IN EASTERN CANADA...SOME STRONG
STORMS COULD REAR THEIR HEADS THURSDAY. MORE ON THIS AS WE APPROACH
MID-WEEK.
BY NEXT WEEKEND...THURSDAY`S FRONT WILL BE A MEMORY AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SETTLE BACK INTO THE MID-STATE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RELAX AND BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEKEND.
UNGER
AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE
MID AND DEEP SOUTH THIS EVENING. WITH DESCENDING AIR IN PLACE
BEING THE RULE...THE AIRMASS IS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT CONVECTION. IN
FACT...THE ONLY AREA OF EMPHASIS WITH THE TAFS WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMATION TOWARD 12Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 10 10 20 10
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 92 74 / 30 10 10 10
CROSSVILLE 86 69 87 70 / 10 10 30 20
COLUMBIA 94 72 95 74 / 10 10 10 10
LAWRENCEBURG 94 71 93 73 / 10 10 10 10
WAVERLY 92 72 93 74 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
55
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015
.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.
Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.
04
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.
The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.
This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 5 0 5 0
San Angelo 75 102 76 101 75 / 10 5 0 5 0
Junction 74 100 75 98 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1204 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS. BRIEF PERIODS OF MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS/
VISIBILITIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (09Z-12Z) AT SOME SITES.
WATCHING OFF TO OUR EAST AND ALONG OUR SEABREEZE FOR POSSIBLE SHRA/
TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...KEEPING ALL TAFS DRY AND
WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. 42
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION... WITH THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR GALVESTON ESE TOWARDS
PLATFORM KGHB /ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF CAMERON...LA/. THE SECOND WAS
LOCATED STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA
COAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FIRST BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THE SECOND BOUNDARY... PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
45. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT /LAKE CHARLES REPORTING 2.3
INCH PWAT AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST/ AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LOW SHEAR BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER... CREATING AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT IN THE 101 TO 107 RANGE AND HAVE REISSUED AREA-WIDE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THIS HAZARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
HUFFMAN
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47
MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 98 77 98 / 20 20 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AVIATION/MARINE...42
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALED TWO BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
REGION... WITH THE FIRST LOCATED NEAR GALVESTON ESE TOWARDS
PLATFORM KGHB /ABOUT 160 MILES SE OF CAMERON...LA/. THE SECOND WAS
LOCATED STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA
COAST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FIRST BOUNDARY
CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... WITH AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND POSSIBLY CLIPPING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING HOURS.
THE SECOND BOUNDARY... PER HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...
APPEARS TO BE A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY GENERALLY EAST OF INTERSTATE
45. GIVEN THE AMPLE MOISTURE PRESENT /LAKE CHARLES REPORTING 2.3
INCH PWAT AND GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWING THIS MORE MOIST AIRMASS
PUSHING SOUTHWEST/ AND MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOWING CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES AROUND 95 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON... THIS SOLUTION
SEEMS REASONABLE. THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR WEST INTO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE WITH INCREASING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE. ORGANIZED STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN LOW SHEAR BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A VERY DRY
SUBCLOUD LAYER... CREATING AN ISOLATED GUSTY WIND THREAT MAINLY
OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES.
HEAT WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AS HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOP OUT IN THE 101 TO 107 RANGE AND HAVE REISSUED AREA-WIDE
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT COVERING THIS HAZARD. CURRENT FORECAST
IS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED.
HUFFMAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47
MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
AVIATION...
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL FCSTS OF VFR FOR THE DAYTIME
HRS. VERY ISO PCPN ALONG THE SEABREEZE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN...BUT
THE BETTER CHCS NOT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE APPRO-
ACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS (09-12Z) WILL ALSO PERSIST. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 98 77 98 / 20 20 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...14
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
347 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.DISCUSSION...
GOES SOUNDER IMAGERY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER PW AIR MOVING WWD
FROM LOUISIANA AND OFFSHORE TOWARD SE TX. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
ASSOCIATED W/ SOME CONVECTION WELL TO OUR EAST THE PAST COUPLE
DAYS...MAKING IT INTO CNTL LA YESTERDAY. GIVEN THAT WE HAD A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS YDAY...SUSPECT WE COULD SEE SOME MORE TODAY ESP IN
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF DEEPER MOISTURE. WILL
STILL NEED TO OVERCOME QUITE A BIT OF SUBSIDENCE BUT FELT LIKE
ADDING MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE FCST IS PROBABLY WARRANTED. HRRR &
TX TECH WRF BOTH SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT & MUGGY THIS WEEK. HIGHS WILL PROBABLY
MODERATE A FEW DEGREES AS UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEAKENS/FLATTENS
OVER THE UPPER TX COAST AS ITS CENTER MIGRATES A BIT FURTHER NE
INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. MAY SEE A PASSING IMPULSE OR TWO MOVE
OVERHEAD UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE THAT MAY HELP GENERATE A FEW CELLS
FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
ISOLATED THRU THURS.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE FRI-SUN AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS
ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN STATES...DEEP GULF MOISTURE MOVES BACK
IN...AND POSSIBLY A DIFFUSE FRONT AND/OR SEABREEZE PROVIDES A
FOCUS FOR HOPEFULLY BETTER AREAL PRECIP CHANCES THAN WE`VE SEEN IN
A WHILE. ADVERTISED POPS IN OUR FCST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD COULD BE
TOO LOW...BUT PREFER TO NUDGE THEM UP W/ TIME AS CONFIDENCE
IMPROVES - VERSUS THE OPPOSITE. 47
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HRS. NO CAUTION FLAGS
ARE ANTICIPATED ATTM. A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE INTO SE
TX LATE IN THE WEEK (THURS/FRI) BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS PER THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. HOWEVER ITS PROXIMITY WILL
HELP TO PRODUCE A MORE W/SWLY FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
STILL NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE GENERAL FCSTS OF VFR FOR THE DAYTIME
HRS. VERY ISO PCPN ALONG THE SEABREEZE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTN...BUT
THE BETTER CHCS NOT ARE EXPECTED UNTIL MID/LATE WEEK WITH THE APPRO-
ACH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VIS DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HRS (09-12Z) WILL ALSO PERSIST. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 99 77 98 76 97 / 10 10 10 0 10
HOUSTON (IAH) 99 78 98 77 98 / 20 20 20 0 10
GALVESTON (GLS) 93 82 92 82 92 / 20 10 20 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
155 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT...THEN
STALL...AND BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 830 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ISOLATED SLOW MOVING SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED ACROSS THE REGION
THIS EVENING GIVEN ONLY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOTS OF CAPPING ALOFT
VIA DRY AIR OFF SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STILL COULD POP ANOTHER LOW
TOPPED SHOWER OR TWO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS PER OLD OUTFLOW AND
LINGERING THETA-E RIDGING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE DESPITE LOSS OF
HEATING. LATEST HRRR ALSO SHOWING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHRA
OVERNIGHT SO MAY LEAVE IN A MENTION A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE WEST.
OTRW EXPECT SOME LINGERING STRATO-CU OVERNIGHT TO GRADUALLY FADE
BEFORE AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS DEVELOP ESPCLY SW SECTIONS WHERE
EARLIER HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED. ALSO BEEFED UP FOG IN SOME OF
THE VALLEYS AS EXPECT MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
BUMPED UP LOWS A LITTLE IN SPOTS UNDER HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHICH
SHOULD KEEP ALL LOCATIONS IN THE 60S OVERALL.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 300 PM EDT SATURDAY...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. WITH LOSE OF HEATING THIS EVENING...SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR...LEADING TO PATCHY FOG FORMING IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
AND LOW LYING AREAS. A SURFACE REFLECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
CAROLINAS SUNDAY ALLOWING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SINCE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY...ANY STRONG CONVECTION ON THE OUTER RINGS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...POSSIBLY DIVING SOUTH ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY. THEREFORE...SUNDAY`S AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE SCATTERED PULSE STORMS.
HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TONIGHT WILL BE MUGGY WITH READINGS IN THE 60S. WITH A WARM START
AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...SUNDAY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MID/UPPER 80S WEST TO LOW 90S EAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 303 PM EDT SATURDAY...
ZEROING IN ON POSSIBLE DECAYING MCS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BY THE
BEGINNING OF MONDAY. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE IN THE PRECIP
FIELDS...BUT THINK THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORM WILL BE ONLY
CHANCE RANGE AT BEST.
BY MONDAY WHILE WE MAY SEE MORE CLOUD COVER THE LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPS LEADING TO MORE CONVERGENCE OVER THE BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS
TIME MODELS ARE VERY CLOSE IN HITTING THE MOUNTAINS WITH BETTER
THREAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVECTION MOVING EAST INTO THE
PIEDMONT BY LATER AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL BROADBRUSH THREAT CWA
WIDE...THOUGH THINK THE CHANCE IS GOING TO BE 40/50 AROUND AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER
THREAT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD
BACK NORTHEAST. THERE COULD SOME ISOLATED STORMS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SW VA/NW NC MAYBE HAVING
30ISH CHANCE.
TEMPS WILL BE MODERATING...ESPECIALLY LOWS AS HEIGHTS BUILD. LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 60S MOUNTAINS TO
AROUND 70 EAST. MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT THE
SAME.
HIGHS WILL BE SEASONAL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S WEST TO LOWER 90S
SOUTHEAST...BUT THE CLOUD COVER MAY KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE
MORNING. HIGHS ABOUT THE SAME OR A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER TUESDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 238 PM EDT SATURDAY...
STRONG UPPER RIDGE STICKS AROUND FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID ATLANTIC BUT WILL RETROGRADE WEST BY THURSDAY AS UPPER
TROUGH OVER HUDSON BAY/JAMES BAY AREA SINKS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SE
TOWARD THE AREA. AT THE SAME TIME MODELS WERE KEEPING THREAT OF
SFC WAVES COMING UP THE FLORIDA/SOUTHEAST COAST FRI-SAT THOUGH
THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCE REGARDING TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...WITH
CONSENSUS KEEPING MORE AN INLAND LOW WITH FRONT BY FRIDAY EVENING.
THIS FRONT WILL BRING A FAIRLY DECENT SHOT OF STORMS IN THE THU
NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME...WITH FRONT SLOWING UP OVER THE COAST BY
SATURDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE CLOSENESS OF THIS FRONT WILL KEEP AT
LEAST THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS INTO SATURDAY EAST OF THE
MOUNTAINS ESPECIALLY.
TYPICAL SUMMER TEMPS THIS PERIOD...THOUGH DEWPOINTS MAY DROP A
LITTLE IN THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY IF THE
FRONT MOVES FAR SOUTHEAST.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 0155 AM EDT SUNDAY...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THANKS TO A LOW
AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE COUNTRY...WHILE
WE DEAL WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE ON SUNDAY. THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP A GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD DEBRIS
STREAMING IN FROM CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WELL UPSTREAM...WHILE THE
WEAK SURFACE HIGH KEEPS A LIGHT AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMING
INTO THE BLUE RIDGE TO GENERATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND FOG BY
DAYBREAK. TYPICAL FOG MAGNET KLWB SHOULD BE ABLE TO COOL ENOUGH
WITH THE THIN CLOUD COVER TO GENERATE LIFR VSBYS IN FOG. ANY
FOG/STRATUS WILL DISSIPATE AFTER DAYBREAK AND GIVE WAY TO A
DEVELOPING CU FIELD.
THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON DOES
NOT HAVE BIG FORCING WITH IT AND BOTH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE
QUITE MEAGER. EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE
FROM THE BLUE RIDGE WESTWARD AND DUE TO THE LACK OF INSTABILITY
WILL USE ONLY VCSH WITH NO MENTION OF THUNDER. ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY WILL BE TAPERING OFF AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON
MONDAY WITH THE FRONT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. OUTSIDE MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING MAINLY VALLEY FOG...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS...BEFORE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS RETURN
LATE IN THE COMING WORKWEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A
POTENTIAL DEEP FETCH OF GULF MOISTURE.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...MBS/NF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
1238 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
IT HAS TURNED INTO A MESSY FORECAST TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AS THERE
IS SOME DESTABILIZATION AND A STACKED SURFACE TO 700MB TROUGH /
ELONGATED LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE
DOESNT REALLY MOVE AND WITH GROWING INSTABILITY COULD SPAWN
SHOWERS AT ANY TIME.
SPC 17Z MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATED MLCAPE TO 3 KM REALLY
JUMPING UP JUST TO THE WEST OF KAEL TO KALO /200 J/KG/ AND LAPS
LOCAL ANALYSIS SYSTEM CONFIRMS THIS...BUT HAS SBCAPE TO 3KM VALUES
NEAR 250 J/KG. THUS...LAPSE RATES ARE ALREADY GETTING CLOSE TO
SUPPORTIVE OF NON-SUPERCELL TORNADOES /NST/. THE BIG PARAMETER WE
ARE WATCHING IS THE CONVERGENT BOUNDARY FOR MISOVORTEX ACTIVITY.
NEAR THE SURFACE...THIS APPEARS TO BE FROM SC MN /KFRM/ TO SW OF
KMCW...TO SW OF KALO AT 17Z. SO...IT IS CLOSE BUT SOUTHWEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. RAP SEEMS TO SHIFT THIS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWEST WITH TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BOTTOM LINE IS INSTABILITY AND SFC-700MB TROUGH HANGING OVER THE
AREA MEANS SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA COULD HAPPEN OVER SERN MN...NERN
IA...AND SWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AT ANY TIME. WHILE THE NST
BOUNDARY AT THE SURFACE APPEARS TO BE JUST SW/W OF THE FORECAST
AREA...HAVE INCLUDED NST FUNNELS INTO THE HAZ WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR
A FEW COUNTIES BASED ON INSTABILITY GROWING RAPIDLY AND PROXIMITY
TO THE BOUNDARY. MEAN WIND WOULD CARRY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY
EASTWARD WOULD THINK...AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY DIMINISHING NST
THREAT.
BEING CAREFUL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY AS WE ARE ONLY 10F
AWAY IN THE CLOUDS. CLEARING COULD EASILY PROVIDE 10F AND HIT THE
HIGHS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
EARLY THIS MORNING...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MN
INTO NORTHWEST IA WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST IMPACTING AREAS
PRIMARILY WEST OF THE MS RIVER. THE STRONGEST STORMS WITHIN THIS
COMPLEX ARE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL IA NEAR THE HIGHEST MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND SURFACE WARM FRONT. FARTHER NORTH...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
PRIMARY THREATS BEING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND LIGHTNING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA NO LATER THAN NOON...BUT
SOME CONVECTIVE RE-DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIVER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 POPS FOR THIS AREA...BUT
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.
925 HPA TEMPERATURES TODAY RISE 1 TO 2 CELSIUS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS ACROSS WESTERN WI. BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES TO
NEAR 700 HPA BY MID-AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MS RIVER AND THIS SHOULD
PROMOTE DRYING AT THE SURFACE WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY BRIEFLY
DIPPING BELOW 40 PERCENT. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. TONIGHT WILL BE WARM BUT DRY WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES LITTLE ON MONDAY...BUT NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER 70S. WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES...MUCAPE
EASILY RISES INTO THE 2000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE. HOWEVER...PRIMARY
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WELL WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY REMAINS ACROSS IA. AS A RESULT...WILL KEEP
DRY FORECAST FOR MONDAY...ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE MUGGY WITH HEAT
INDICES RISING INTO THE MID 90S.
SURFACE WARM FRONT FINALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING EASTERN PACIFIC
TROUGH. MODELS SHOW A 40 TO 50 KT 850 HPA NOCTURNAL JET MONDAY
NIGHT IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MN. WITH THIS
SET-UP WITHIN A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME KIND OF CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX IS LIKELY BUT ITS TIMING AND LOCATION ARE UNCERTAIN. AT
THIS TIME...WILL KEEP HIGHEST CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION TUESDAY MORNING MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES/HEAT INDICES...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES LATER IN THE DAY. FOR NOW...GENERAL IDEA THAT
STRENGTHENING CAP WITH 700 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 11 TO
13 CELSIUS RANGE WILL SQUASH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION UNTIL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT STILL HOLDS. IN THIS SCENARIO...
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES ABOVE
100 DEGREES. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD IGNITE NEAR THE COLD FRONT
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE
AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR/FORCING FOR ASCENT INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
MUCH COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS MOVES INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAY NIGHT/S FRONTAL PASSAGE. DAILY HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE THE RULE
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
FIRMLY IN CONTROL ACROSS THE NATION/S MID-SECTION.
THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS POOR THIS FAR OUT LENDING TO LOW OVERALL
CONFIDENCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR THIS SET OF TAFS. INSTABILITY WILL BE
INVOF KRST THIS AFTERNOON AND TSRA COULD FORM AS WELL NEARBY.
THERE IS NOT A STRONG SIGNAL FOR TSRA TO BE NUMEROUS ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE AIR SPACE THERE.
OVERNIGHT IT APPEARS LIGHT LIFT WILL KEEP SOME VFR CLOUDS AT THE
TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. MORE ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH SRN
MN INTO IA LOOKS TO GENERATE A NEAR IFR CLOUD DECK BY SUNRISE.
DRIER AIR TOWARD KLSE AND FURTHER EAST SEEMS TO INHIBIT THIS
CLOUD DECK A BIT. HOWEVER...IF THE SKIES ARE CLEAR ENOUGH...THERE
COULD BE SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG THAT COULD PULL KLSE TO IFR FOG IN
THE MORNING.
IFR VSBY/CIG ARE POSSIBLE AT BOTH TAF SITES BY SUNRISE. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
TO SUCH...BUT THE FOLLOWING FORECASTS MAY NEED TO INCLUDE IT.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
950 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015
.UPDATE...
A WEAKENING MCS IS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...MAINLY THE NORTHERN STRATIFORM RAIN PORTION. THE STORMS
LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL BE REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH THERE COULD BE A LITTLE THUNDER INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN. LATEST HRRR HAS AN OK HANDLE ON THIS COMPLEX AND MOVES
IT SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. HRRR BRINGS
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WHICH MAY
BE REASONABLE CONSIDERING SHOWERS CURRENTLY STRETCH AS FAR NORTH
AS EAU CLAIRE. MAY HAVE TO EXPAND LOW POPS FARTHER NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY IS HOW MUCH THIS CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT
TEMPERATURES. OBVIOUSLY...IF CLOUDS HANG ON MUCH OF THE
DAY...HIGHS WILL END UP SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE CLEARING WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THOUGH...SO
WILL JUST MONITOR TRENDS FOR NOW AND NOT CHANGE TEMPS QUITE YET.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY AS A WEAKENING MCS SLIDES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE.
LOOKS MAINLY DRY THEN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SITS
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN THE WEST DURING THIS PERIOD ALONG BOUNDARY OF
DEEPER MOISTURE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 529 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/
TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
LOOKS AS IF THE MAJORITY OF THE UPSTREAM MCS WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT SW CWA COULD BE
CLIPPED BY THE FAR NORTHERN END OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WILL
ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING AND KEEP
THEM GOING THROUGH THE DAY WITH BETTER INSTABILITY SHOWN ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR DBQ. DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM MORNING SYSTEM
COULD LIMIT HEATING AND DEGREE OF RESULTANT INSTABILITY SO KEPT
AFTERNOON POPS IN SLIGHT CATEGORY.
925 MB TEMPS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...THOUGH SE WINDS WILL KEEP
EASTERN AREAS COOLER...AND DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL LIMIT EARLY SUNSHINE
IN THE SOUTHWEST. MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE LAKE WITH THE
NORTHWEST STILL HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR UPPER 80S WITH FEWER
CLOUDS AND DEEP MIXING.
TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT...WITH SURFACE HIGH
SLIDING TO THE EAST. MODELS INDICATING AN MCS DEVELOPING TO THE SW
OF FORECAST AREA...WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK SLIDING IT BY TO THE
SOUTH ACROSS NRN IL ALONG 850 MB TEMP GRADIENT. EVEN THE GFS WITH
THE MOST EXPANSIVE QPF FIELD KEEPS BEST FORCING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW BUT POPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADDED IF MORE NWD
SOLUTION ON CANADIAN AND GFS QPF FIELDS PAN OUT.
SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.
MODELS SHOWING HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVING EAST OF THE REGION
DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH SOUTH WINDS OVER THE AREA. STEADY WARM
AIR ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THIS TIME IN THE LOW LEVELS. THE MAIN
LOW LEVEL JET AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. THE 500 MB
RIDGE AXIS ON MONDAY SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST...ALLOWING FOR A
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING A 500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A
LITTLE VARIATION IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT. WARM AIR ADVECTION
BECOMES A LITTLE MORE FOCUSED ACROSS THE AREA LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. COLD FRONT THEN MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH QPF OVER THE AREA ON ALL MODELS.
NAM/GFS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH MEAN LAYER CAPES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THOUGH ARE A BIT OVERDONE WITH DEW POINTS. WEAK DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS SEEN DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES GETTING NEAR 2.00 INCHES LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW...DESPITE QPF SHOWING UP ON GFS/ECMWF. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS STRONG
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SHOWERS/STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED POPS FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT. MARGINAL SEVERE RISK
PER SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY NIGHT WITH THE FRONT...THOUGH IT
LOOKS MORE LIKE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...WITH WARM 925 MB TEMPERATURES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 ARE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH SOME LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOWER
TO MID 90S MONDAY...AND MID 90S TO AROUND 100 TUESDAY. ONSHORE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT COOLER NEAR THE LAKE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.
GFS/ECMWF SHOWING COLD FRONT MOVING EAST OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST IN THE MORNING...THEN
DRY IN THE AFTERNOON. TRANSITION TO SOMEWHAT COOLER BUT LESS HUMID
AIRMASS IS THEN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. 500 MB
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
NORTHWEST FLOW AT 500 MB CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF DISAGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM. USED CONSENSUS POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD FOR NOW.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...
EXCEPT FOR FOG IN THE WISCONSIN RIVER VALLEY AND PATCHES OF FOG
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT...LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
FORECAST. DYING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY CLIP THE SOUTHWEST FORECAST
AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM LATER THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COMPLEX SKIMMING THE IL BORDER AREAS. AMOUNT OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM
THE DECAYING COMPLEX WILL IMPACT OCCURRENCE AND COVERAGE OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT.
MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION IN
RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS EASTWARD LEADS TO A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION THAT KEEPS FORECAST AREA DRY TONIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WOOD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.
THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.
EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.
TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
ST/SPR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS WITH THE HEAT. NO CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THE TIMING OR ALIGNMENT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS
ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...AND THIS WILL BE
ADVECTING OUR WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
UPPER 70S DEW POINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT INDEX OF 105-110 FROM ABOUT
GALESBURG-EFFINGHAM WESTWARD...WITH THE HIGHER READINGS TOWARD THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY NEAR HAVANA AND BEARDSTOWN.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTING ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY NORTHWEST NEAR THE ILLINOIS/MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
WOULD SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. OF MORE
CONCERN IS THE MCS CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW...HRRR AND HOP-WRF ARE
DOING A RESPECTABLE JOB WITH THE SYSTEM THUS FAR...AND SHOW SOME
OF THE REMNANTS MAKING IT AS FAR AS GALESBURG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NMM MOSTLY FIZZLES IT OUT BEFORE REACHING US...WHILE THE
NAM-12 IS CASUALLY IGNORING ITS EXISTENCE ALTOGETHER. RECENT
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER WOULD LEND
SOME CREDENCE TOWARD THE HRRR SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK CAPPING TO GET THROUGH FIRST BETWEEN HERE AND THERE.
WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR NOW...AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
&&
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAIN ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL FOCUS HIGHER POP`S
BEGINNING MID-LATE EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND
SHIFTING IT AS FAR AS CHAMPAIGN AND MATTOON BY LATE NIGHT. HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA LARGELY DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE... WITH
THE HIGHER POP`S IN THAT AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MID 70S DEW POINTS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
I-70 ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS BORDERLINE WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...SO WILL NOT PUT AN EXTENSION THERE YET.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE...WITH A
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
GFS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THAT PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AND IN FACT BRINGS A LOBE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WARMER AS THE RIDGE ONLY
GRADUALLY FLATTENS. HAVE GONE THE WARMER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. NEXT CONCERN FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEST-EAST AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SURFACE FRONT FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE THE GFS GETS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH IN A
WEAKENING STATE. HAVE CAPPED POP`S AT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 30% CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1246 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
DENSE CIRRUS SHIELD LEFT BEHIND BY CONVECTION THAT DISSIPATED
THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO BLANKET CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER IT IS BEGINNING TO CLEAR OUT NORTHWEST OF THE
ILLINOIS RIVER. MAIN SHORT-TERM AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE HOW
MUCH FOG WILL FORM BETWEEN NOW AND DAWN. WITH SKIES CLEARING FROM
WEST TO EAST AND CONTINUED VERY LIGHT E/NE WINDS...FOG WILL
DEVELOP EVERYWHERE. THINK IT WILL BE THICKEST WHERE LIGHT RAIN
OCCURRED LAST EVENING AND WHERE SKIES CLEAR EARLIEST. AS A
RESULT...HAVE HIT VSBY RESTRICTIONS HARDEST AT BOTH KPIA AND KSPI
AFTER 08Z/09Z. MODELS SUGGEST WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER THIS MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...HAVE OPTED TO
INCLUDE VCTS AT KSPI BETWEEN 12Z AND 17Z. AFTER THAT...MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED VCTS AT KPIA
AFTER 03Z...ALTHOUGH THE BEST FOCUS FOR THUNDER WILL LIKELY HOLD
OFF UNTIL AFTER 06Z.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...BARNES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.
IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
WARM FRONT ALOFT/SFC JUST TO WEST OF AREA THIS EVENING. MCS OVER
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EAST/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
09-13Z WITH AREA OF LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 09-10Z AND A
GRADUAL EXPANSION FROM WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL BY 10-12Z. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL IN TAFS WITH UPDATED HRRR MODEL RUNS...SOUTHERN
SITES AT KDSM/KOTM SHOULD SEE LESS DURATION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
11-15Z THAN NORTH. AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM 20-00Z LINGERING AFT
29/00Z OVER THE EAST. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL MODEST...SO
HAVE KEPT VICINITY WORDING FOR NOW./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.
NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.
FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.
FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.
FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.
THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
&&
.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
WARM FRONT ALOFT/SFC JUST TO WEST OF AREA THIS EVENING. MCS OVER
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EAST/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
09-13Z WITH AREA OF LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 09-10Z AND A
GRADUAL EXPANSION FROM WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL BY 10-12Z. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL IN TAFS WITH UPDATED HRRR MODEL RUNS...SOUTHERN
SITES AT KDSM/KOTM SHOULD SEE LESS DURATION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
11-15Z THAN NORTH. AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM 20-00Z LINGERING AFT
29/00Z OVER THE EAST. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL MODEST...SO
HAVE KEPT VICINITY WORDING FOR NOW./REV
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...AWB/KA
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
429 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN LAKES
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTREL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OVER ERN MT/WY. ISOLD SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SAW TO ERY HAVE DISIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPER
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
INTO THE SW CORNER OF MANITOBA BY TUE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN TONIGHT THAT MAY GENERATE
AN MCV THAT COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST
UPPER MI TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTRNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WHICH HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS
...EXPECT CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA TO
PREVENT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. SINCE THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A 991MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT ANY REALLY STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD LEAVE
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT). THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY RELIEF TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST. AFTER
CLEARING INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE WEST TO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL...TIED TO 850-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS STILL SHOWING A CORE OF 30-45KT 950-900MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (TIGHTEST FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH). WITH THE WESTERN LAKE WARMING
UP...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE AS MUCH OF AN AFFECT AS
EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN HAVING GUSTS TO
35-40KTS OVER LSZ263-264. THUS...WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OVER THE LAND...STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO OCCUR OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-40MPH AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45MPH AROUND
THE BROCKWAY MOUNTAIN AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BUT HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY KEEP
GALES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (OCCURRING
ABOUT EVERY 8-12HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND). THESE SERIES OF WAVES WILL
OCCUR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. MOST WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL LARGELY SHOW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THEM...AND JUST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MARK A SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN RECENTLY ON THE CFS AND LONG RANGE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MIDDAY WED OVER THE
WRN LAKE.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN LAKES
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTREL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OVER ERN MT/WY. ISOLD SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SAW TO ERY HAVE DISIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPER
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.
A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
INTO THE SW CORNER OF MANITOBA BY TUE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN TONIGHT THAT MAY GENERATE
AN MCV THAT COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST
UPPER MI TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTRNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WHICH HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS
...EXPECT CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA TO
PREVENT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. SINCE THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A 991MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT ANY REALLY STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD LEAVE
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT). THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY RELIEF TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST. AFTER
CLEARING INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE WEST TO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL...TIED TO 850-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS STILL SHOWING A CORE OF 30-45KT 950-900MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (TIGHTEST FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH). WITH THE WESTERN LAKE WARMING
UP...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE AS MUCH OF AN AFFECT AS
EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN HAVING GUSTS TO
35-40KTS OVER LSZ263-264. THUS...WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OVER THE LAND...STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO OCCUR OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-40MPH AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45MPH AROUND
THE BROCKWAY MOUNTAIN AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BUT HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY KEEP
GALES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (OCCURRING
ABOUT EVERY 8-12HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND). THESE SERIES OF WAVES WILL
OCCUR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. MOST WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL LARGELY SHOW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THEM...AND JUST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MARK A SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN RECENTLY ON THE CFS AND LONG RANGE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 720 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015
HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MIDDAY WED OVER THE
WRN LAKE.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...JLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
300 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWINFG STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING. DID PUSH BACK THE TIMING AS ALL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT SLOWER PROGRESSION. THERE ARE A FEW MVFR
CIGS AROUND THE AREA BUT NOT WIDESPREAD AT ISSUANCE TIME. SURFACE
COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON
TURNING SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS COULD FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT AFTER 20-22Z...WHICH
COULD BE IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO KOMA AND KLNK. DID ADD A PROB30
GROUP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KERN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NORTH PLATTE NE
1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS. AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO. IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.
THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST. HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.
COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.
MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
EVENING. THESE STORMS ARE LOCATED IN BETWEEN VTN AND LBF...AND
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT THEY WILL IMPACT EITHER ONE OF THE TAF
SITES. SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION FOR TSTMS AT THE
TERMINALS...BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH LOCAL GUSTS APPROACHING 30 KTS AT SOME LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...TAYLOR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RALEIGH NC
153 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 PM MONDAY...
DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AN AREA OF PERSISTENT RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHWEST
PIEDMONT COINCIDENT WITH TWO CONVERGING SURFACE BOUNDARIES...AIDED
BY SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT...AS SEEN CLEARLY IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. WHILE THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST FOR A LITTLE
WHILE...GENERALLY EXPECT IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
WHILE CENTRAL NC REMAINS ON THE BACK/FRONT SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/RIDGE...WATER VAPOR SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE OF DRY AIR ALOFT
MAKING A SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION THROUGH VA AT THIS TIME. TO THE WEST
OF THIS HOWEVER...A STEADY STREAM OF MOISTURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
FEED INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
WEAKEN CONVECTION THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE HRRR HOLDS
ONTO SOME RAINFALL IN THE SW PIEDMONT FOR LONGER THAN THE WRF
SIMULATIONS WHICH IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT. WILL
START TO SEE POCKETS OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS IN RAIN MOISTENED AREAS
AS WELL AS POSSIBLY IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO SUNRISE. LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S...COOLEST IN THE NE
COUNTIES WHERE UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY CEASE ONCE/IF DRY AIR
ALOFT ARRIVES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.
WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.
MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.
HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 150 AM TUESDAY...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER CENTRAL NC AND THE ONLY REMAINING
STORMS ARE NORTH OF THE NC-VA BORDER. THE REST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE QUIET WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION...WITH STRATUS POSSIBLE IN A
FAIRLY WELL ESTABLISHED SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW. GIVEN THIS
RETURN FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING...ALONG WITH EARLIER CLUSTERS
OF STORMS OVER THE WESTERN PIEDMONT...STRATUS MAY END UP BEING MORE
WIDESPREAD WEST OF KRDU AND IMPACT KGSO/KINT. HOWEVER...THESE
SIGNALS ARE MIXED IN MODEL GUIDANCE...AND CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
GIVEN THE LACK OF DEVELOPMENT SO FAR. PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO STREAMING FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH SOME MVFR/IFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR FOR AN EXTENDED AMOUNT
OF TIME.
WHAT STRATUS THAT FORMS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY THIS MORNING AND
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
KGSO/KINT/KRDU.
OUTLOOK: EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH AFTERNOON STORMS...MAINLY WEST...EACH DAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY STALLING
OVER EASTERN NC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...ELLIS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON NC
108 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH MID WEEK. A PIEDMONT
TROUGH WILL FORM AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND STALL DURING THE
WEEKEND BEFORE FINALLY DISSIPATING ON MONDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...AN AREA OF SLOW MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
DROPPING S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NW CORNER
OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL RISK FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM INTO THE OVERNIGHT...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NW OF A LBT TO
UDG LINE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR SHOWS THIS CLUSTER BASICALLY
WASHING OUT THROUGH 2-3 AM AS IT SUCCUMBS TO A STABILIZING
ENVIRONMENT. THE GROWING GROUND CLUTTER PATTERN AT KLTX SHOWS THIS
STABILIZATION ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY.
SHALLOW SHOWERS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AND SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE COAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
DESTINED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE.
THE LOWEST LEVELS HAVE MOISTENED CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE LOW AND MID 70S THIS EVE. GIVEN THE EXTENT
AND THICKNESS OF THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS TOPPING THE RIDGE AND
MOVING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WILL RAISE THE MINIMUMS ABOUT A
CATEGORY...MAINLY MID AND UPPER 70S. ALSO...GIVEN THE LARGER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...DO NOT EXPECT THE FOG TO RESTRICT VISIBILITY
SIGNIFICANTLY AND I HAVE REMOVED MENTION FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE SOME LOW STRATUS TOWARD MORNING
HOWEVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...INTERESTING OVER THE MID-TERM AS TROUGHINESS
AND WEAK LOWER PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST. ALSO...A PIEDMONT
TROUGH DEVELOPS INLAND WITH AN EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW. ALOFT
PRECIPITABLE WATERS EDGE UP TO NEAR 2 INCHES. NO LARGE SYNOPTIC
FORCING ALOFT SO 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
WITH A NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S AT THE BEACHES AND MIDDLE 90S IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MIDDLE 70S WILL BE THE LOWS EACH DAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HIGH TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES TO 100 TO 104 INLAND BOTH DAYS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...THURSDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE LAST DAY WITH A
FAIRLY `NORMAL` DISTRIBUTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY
WILL MOSTLY BE TRIGGERED BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES. THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE FAR INLAND ZONES AS A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING BUT THE
STEERING FLOW COULD PUSH THEM INTO THOSE AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.
ALL BETS ARE OFF FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND HOWEVER AS THIS
BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION AND STALLS. NOT ONLY WILL THIS
BOUNDARY BE IN THE VICINITY TO KEEP THINGS UNSETTLED BUT THERE BE
A WEAKNESS IN THE HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE REGION IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER RIDGES, ONE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE OTHER OVER MUCH
OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. HIGH END CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS APPEAR
WARRANTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD THOUGH AT THIS POINT IT`S TOUGH
TO SAY WHICH DAY WILL BE THE WETTEST. THIS IS MADE EVEN MORE TRUE
BY THE FACT THAT THERE COULD BE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT DRAWN UP THE
COAST. THE ADDED CLOUD COVER WILL SUBTRACT FROM THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARMTH BY A FEW DEGREES BUT AT THE SAME TIME KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS
CLOSE TO OR A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS STILL IN CONTROL OF THE REGION.
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE
AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF A SHORT WAVE. THIS MAY
HINDER FOG FORMATION EARLY...BUT EXPECT FOG TO FORM AFTER 08Z
MAINLY IN THE MVFR RANGE...WITH A BRIEF ONE TO TWO HOUR PERIOD OF
NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE NEAR SUNRISE. EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE MAY KICK OFF SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO THE NORTHERN TERMINALS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1 AM TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE WATERS WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH POKING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE OFFSHORE CAROLINA WATERS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN LAX AND THIS WILL KEEP WIND SPEEDS AROUND 10
KT THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE DIRECTION WILL BE EASTERLY. SEAS WILL BE
2 TO 3 FT WITH 4 FT SEAS OUT AROUND BUOY 41013. A WEAK ESE SWELL
ON THE ORDER OF 10 TO 11 SECONDS WILL PERSIST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...SYNOPTIC A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS WITH THE MODELS TRYING
TO DEVELOP WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE EAST WITH WIND SPEED AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL
RUN FROM 1 TO 3 FEET DURING THIS TIME AS WELL.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
AS OF 300 PM MONDAY...WINDS FINALLY ACQUIRE A MORE TYPICAL
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON THURSDAY AS FLOW VEERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A SOUTHEASTERLY WIND MAY BE MORE LIKELY
THAN A BERMUDA HIGH INDUCED SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THOUGH SOME WEAK
TROUGHINESS OFF THE COAST MAKES IT TOUGH TO SAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE
OFFSHORE SHOULD HELP TO KEEP WINDS LIGHT THOUGH WITH SPEEDS LIKELY
CAPPED AT 10KT. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND AND LIKELY ADD A FEW KNOTS FOR A GENERAL
10-15KT FORECAST AREA-WIDE. SATURDAY`S FORECAST WILL HINGE UPON
WHERE THIS BOUNDARY STALLS WITH IS A LITTLE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
POINT. SOUTHERN ZONES SHOULD RETAIN AN OFFSHORE FLOW BUT THERE
COULD BE VEERING OVER NORTHERN ZONES THAT MANAGE TO SEE FROPA.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...DRH
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/8
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HAVE TRIMMED OFF MOST OF THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CONVECTIVE
WATCHES WHERE WIND/HAIL THREAT HAS DIMINISHED...KEEPING ONLY
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING LINE.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BISMARCK ND
1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
FOR THIS UPDATE...HAVE REMOVED SOUTHWEST COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. COLD FRONT NOW THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST AND
PUSHING EAST. MAIN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW INTO THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. FOCUS AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR LATER TUESDAY MORNING INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
COORDINATED WITH SPC AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 458 HAS BEEN
ISSUED UNTIL 5AM CDT TUESDAY. THIS COVERS ALL COUNTIES IN THE
BISMARCK COUNTY WARNING AREA THAT WERE NOT INCLUDED IN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
QUICK UPDATE TO ADD BURLEIGH AND EMMONS COUNTIES TO THE EXISTING
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 457...WHICH CONTINUES UNTIL 3AM CDT
TUESDAY. UPDATED PRODUCTS SENT.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
UPDATED POPS WITH HRRR ENSEMBLE. TRIED TO CAPTURE THE HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED NEXT 6 HOURS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE ALLOWING FULL HEATING ACROSS MUST OF WEST
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID
60S TO THE MID 70S. NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS HAVE 4000+ CAPE WITH
20-30 KTS BULK SHEAR ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WAITING
FOR CAP TO ERODE.
HEAVY RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE THUNDERSTORM AREAS OF ONE TO NEARLY 2
INCHES MAINLY NORTH. ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE.
ON TUESDAY...EXPANDED THE HIGH WIND WATCH EAST THROUGH THE CWA.
MODELS DELAYED THE HIGHER WINDS ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS.
.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 233 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
THE LONG TERM WILL START WITH WINDY CONDITIONS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE DEPARTING LOW WILL PRODUCE WRAP AROUND SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. ADDITIONALLY WITH DOWNSLOPING WINDS AND
STRONG CAA WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY...ALBEIT MUCH
LESS THAN TUESDAY.
THEREAFTER WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS STILL AFFECTING KMOT AND KJMS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THIS TAF PERIOD...WITH KISN/KDIK/KBIS RECEIVING
LIMITED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MAIN ISSUE FOR TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THE EVENING WILL BE THE VERY STRONG WEST WINDS...WITH THE
LATEST DATA SHOWING GUSTS TO AROUND 50KT AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT
KJMS...WHICH WILL SEE MAX GUSTS TO AROUND 40KT.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NDZ004-005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.
&&
$$
UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
1144 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ADJUSTED POPS AS CONVECTION STILL WELL WEST OF THE FA. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES AS WILL BE NOW BE MONITORING FOR SEVERE STORMS.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 925 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION ACROSS WESTERN ND CONTINUES TO BE SLOW WITH
MAIN ACTION ACROSS W SD...E MT AND ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN MB/SASK
BORDER AREA. A FEW STRONG STORMS HAVE MOVED INTO FAR S CENTRAL ND
BETWEEN DIK AND BIS AND JUST MOVING ACROSS THE MT/ND BORDER AREA.
STRONGEST SHEAR WITH WAVE OVER W SD AND E MT. BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING STILL ALONG ND/MT BORDER AREA VCNTY SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARY. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS CUT BACK ON POPS BUT
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE FAR W CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT BUT
UNCERTAIN WITH THAT. HIGH RESOLUTION QUICK UPDATE MODELS DO NOT
BRING ANYTHING INTO THE WEST UNTIL JUST BEFORE DAY BREAK. SEVERE
THREAT ALSO SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. INSTABILITY REMAINS HOWEVER
CONVERGENCE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
MAINTAINED CURRENT POPS LATER TONIGHT BUT AGAIN SEVERE THREAT NOT
ALL THAT CLEAR.
UPDATE ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ONLY CHANGES WERE TO ADD SOME ISOLD TSRA CHANCES TO THE FAR SW FA
ALTHOUGH CURRENT CONVECTION WEAKENING.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTHERWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARCK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
ONGOING CONVECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.
WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF POTENTIAL T THROUGH TAF SITES
THEN INCREASING WINDS LATER TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AT THIS POINT FEEL
FAR HAS THE BEST POTENTIAL WITH UNCERTAINTY CONTINUING AT OTHER
SITES. LATER TOMORROW DVL BASIN WILL BE SEEING VERY STRONG WINDS
DEVELOPING WITH GUSTS HIGHER THAN 45KTS PSBL.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...VOELKER
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...VOELKER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WILMINGTON OH
210 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
VERY HUMID AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED
NEAR THE OHIO RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP AND POSSIBLY PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SURFACE OBS
INDICATE DEW POINTS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE STILL DEVELOPING IN THOSE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
LATEST RAP INDICATES DISSIPATION OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWER
DEW POINTS IN MID 60S OVER FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THEM FREE FROM PRECIP TONIGHT.
SLOW MOVING CELLS AND HEAVY RAIN IN AN AIRMASS CONTAINING ABOUT
1.8 INCHES PRECIPITABLE WATER MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED HIGH WATER.
LOWS WILL VARY WITH RESPECT TO DEW POINTS AS WELL...WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 60S FAR NORTH IN LOWER HUMIDITY...UP TO THE
LOWER 70S IN THE MOISTER AIRMASS SOUTH.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLING OVER KENTUCKY WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY.
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE UNDER A PERSISTENTLY HUMID AIRMASS
SHOW THE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...AND NORTHERN LOCATIONS MAY
SEE NONE. CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECREASING FORCING.
KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOLLOWING RECENT
TRENDS...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF/UPR LOW TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN
CANADA ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW AN ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT
TO PUSH THRU THE REGION LATE WED NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY.
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM...WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.
WILL BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH CHANCE WED NIGHT WITH THE APPROACH AND
PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. MODEL SOLNS A LTL FASTER WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THEREFORE...WILL END ALL PCPN VERY EARLY IN THE SE.
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE
LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S
TO UPPER 80S.
MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH SFC FRONT DROPPING INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WILL LIMIT
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE NORTH SUNDAY AFTN AND THEN BRING
CHANCE POPS CWA WIDE MONDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE
TO NORMAL RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FRONT HAS STALLED AROUND THE OHIO RIVER. HIGHER DEWPOINTS
POOLING AROUND THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PROVIDE
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE SRN TAFS. WENT LIFR VSBYS
AT KLUK...AND SOME IFR AT ILN AND MVFR AT CVG.
FOG WILL BURN OFF AFTER SUNRISE...BRINGING A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS. H5 RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD NE INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
BEGIN TO INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THERE SHOULD STILL BE
ENUF CONVERGENCE AROUND THE FRONT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SRN TAF SITES CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. ONLY MENTIONED A VCSH AT KCVG AND KLUK THIS AFTN. CONVECTION
SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.
OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY.
&&
.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SITES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE CWA. MCS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FEATURING MAINLY SUB
SEVERE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THIS POINT. SUSTAINING UPPER
FORCING IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND SQUALL LINE
PUSHING TOWARD A BIT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERALL. SEE NO REASON
THAT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN IN A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES EAST AT 40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
BREAKDOWN TO A FEW VORTICES...BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH
PERSISTENT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS POINT...
AND PROSPECT FOR KEEPING FOCUSED UPDRAFTS WILL NOT GET ANY BETTER
WITH THE STATE OF THE AIRMASS. BOUNDARY WILL START TO LAY OUT A BIT
MORE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH TIME EARLY MORNING...AND HAVE
LINGERED SOME CHANCE LEVEL POPS INTO MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHARPER DRYING BACK
WEST OF THE CWA AT 09Z...AND THIS MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY
SQUALL LINE WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED JUST A TOUCH SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUN...
QUESTION WHETHER WILL BE ABLE TO REACH A RENEWED CONVECTIVE POINT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS TO CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH OF A CAP INDICATED ON FAIRLY WARM RAP TO REALLY LIMIT ANY POP
MENTION TO LOWER CHANCE...AND SHOULD BE LARGELY CLEAR OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 00-01Z. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD HAVE A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
AFTER 19-20Z.
LIKELY GOING TO BE BIT SLOWER RELAXING HUMIDITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH BOUNDARY STILL WELL BACK IN NW IA AND SW MN BY
18Z...BUT EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. STRONGER PUSH OF COOLING ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH WESTERN WINDS DECOUPLING
SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH COMPARED TO NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH LOOKING DRY AND WARM. WEDNESDAY ALSO
LOOKING A BIT WINDY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE A FEW
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. BY THURSDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS A BIT WARMER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND THURSDAY THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SATURDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE DAY WHEN IT COULD
GET HOTTEST SO WILL KEEP SOME 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BE PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD ANYTHING OTHER THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING
KHON AROUND 05Z...THEN KFSD AND KSUX LATER AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
TO THE EAST. WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NORTHWESTERLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THAT THERE
COULD BE MVFR/IRF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TOWARD TUESDAY MORNING.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...JM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SAN ANGELO TX
1125 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015
.AVIATION...
/06Z TAFS/
Skies were mostly clear across the region and the winds have
mostly diminished. Could see a few scattered clouds at KJCT and
KSOA by 12Z. Tomorrow looks like a carbon copy of today, VFR and
southeast winds of 10 to 15 kts.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/
AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
High based cumulus will likely dissipate shortly around sunset
along with the summer breeze. Winds will vary in both direction and
speeds. However, the wind speeds should remain below 12 knots most
of the time. VFR to continue through 00Z Tuesday as an upper level high
remains in control of the region.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015/
SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)
A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.
Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.
04
LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)
Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.
The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.
This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.
Johnson
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 5 0 5 0
San Angelo 75 102 76 101 75 / 10 5 0 5 0
Junction 74 100 75 98 73 / 10 5 0 0 0
&&
.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
26/99/99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
925 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT-UPDATES...BUOY OBS SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHEAST GULF/FLORIDA BIG BEND AREAS. TROUGHING EXTENDS TO THE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. LATEST RUC 500MB PLOT SHOWING THE UPPER
TROUGH WAS STILL JUST WEST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND VERIFIED WITH USAF
VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS AT/VICINITY OF KENNEDY SPACE CENTER
DETECTING SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH 10000 FEET. LOCAL WRF AND HRRR
COVERAGE NOT AS MUCH AS IN PREVIOUS DAYS BUT STILL SHOWING MORE
PRECIP OVER NORTHERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB PER BOTH TAMPA AND
CAPE CANAVERAL 27/12Z SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND -5C. AS LONG AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA IS IN THE DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW... TEMPERATURES ALOFT SHOULD
REMAIN WARM. THIS WOULD CONDUCIVE FOR FAST MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS ANY
TIME.
THIS IS WHAT THE LOCAL FORECAST IS INDICATING. WILL UPDATE WINDS AND
ASSOCIATED GRIDS.
.AVIATION...AFTER WATCHING RADAR LOOPS WENT EARLIER WITH VCSH. TEMPO
MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH NOON PREVAILING THROUGH 29/00Z. KDAB WAS THE
ONLY TAF SITE THAT REPORT TS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH FAST MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS A VCTS MAY BE A BETTER CALL THAN A TEMPO GROUP.
.MARINE...NOAA BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING 1 TO 2 FOOT
SEAS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS ON THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.
PREVIOUS AFD
TODAY-TONIGHT...PERSISTENT QUASI-STATIONARY LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
REMAINS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN GULF NEAR CEDAR KEY HAS PULLED
IT FAIRLY FAR NORTHWARDS INTO NORTH FLORIDA. WITH THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER NORTH AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUING TO STRING OUT
IN THE SAME AREA...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN ABLE
TO LIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH INTO THE FL STRAITS/FAR S FLORIDA.
THIS HAS ALLOWED A LITTLE MORE DRY AIR INTO S FLORIDA AS EVIDENCED
BY LAST EVENING`S SOUNDINGS WITH PWATS AT MIAMI "ONLY" AROUND 1.8"
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF PENINSULAR FL REMAINS IN THE 2.2" RANGE.
THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL ALSO KEEP FAIRLY BRISK
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW AT 20-25KTS.
MODELS SHOW A SPREAD IN RAIN CHANCES FROM TODAY WITH NEARLY 90% FROM
THE ORLANDO METRO NORTHWARDS AND ONLY AROUND 20% NEAR MARTIN COUNTY.
EVEN WITH A LITTLE DRYING...DONT THINK SPREAD WILL BE QUITE THAT
DRASTIC GIVEN THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE SW FLOW. WILL KEEP 60-70% FROM
OSCEOLA-BREVARD NORTHWARDS ENHANCED BY THE BOUNDARY TAPERING OFF TO
30-40% NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHERN MARTIN.
EXPECT A SIMILAR EVOLUTION AS YESTERDAY...WITH ONGOING SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND W FL COAST SPREADING INLAND MID TO
LATE MORNING AND ACTIVITY GENERALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE TOWARDS LATE
AFTERNOON. CONTINUING WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND WEAK LAPSE RATES
WILL LEAN MORE TOWARDS RAIN WITH A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS...WITH QUICK
STORM MOTION ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH.
WED-FRI...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. THERE IS NO APPARENT SUPPRESSING
FORCE TO SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...THOUGH
THE 00Z GFS DID SHOW MINOR DRYING IN THE NORTH WED AND IN THE
SOUTH THU. THESE SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE DIFFICULT TO
PRECISELY FORECAST...BUT DID BLEND THEM INTO THE FORECAST POPS
WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS VALUES.
WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST
SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY. CAME OUT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH
HALF ON THU AND ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE DAILY CHANGES IN RAIN
CHANCES AND CLOUDINESS WILL DICTATE MAX TEMPS BUT DID LEAN TOWARDS
SLIGHTLY LOWER CONSENSUS VALUES.
WEEKEND-NEXT TUE...THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AT THESE LATITUDES WILL
LIKELY BE IN A NEAR STAND OFF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST
TO HOLD SWAY WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST KEEPS ATLANTIC RIDGE
FROM BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN EARNEST. WEAKNESS IN
THE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN NEARBY AND ONLY LIMITED DEEP LAYER DRYING
IS INDICATED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO NUDGE TOWARDS
CENTRAL FLORIDA BUT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP SCATTERED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR/IFR CIGS NOT AS PREVALENT THIS MORNING AS THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT WITH SEVERAL SITES STILL REPORTING FEW-SCT020-
025...WILL KEEP THE MENTION FOR TEMPO CIGS THROUGH DAYBREAK. KLEE
CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY HAS BEEN SEEING MORE PREVAILING IFR CIGS SO
WILL KEEP PREVAILING IN THIS AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE ONGOING SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING INTO KTPA-KZPH AND VCNTY
WILL SPREAD EASTWARDS AFTER 11Z FIRST AFFECTING KISM. SCT-NMRS SHRA
AND A FEW TSRA PUSHING EASTWARDS NORTH OF KLAL-KMLB 13Z-22Z WITH
COVERAGE ALONG OKEECHOBEE AND TREASURE COAST A LITTLE LOWER. GUSTS
TO 35KTS MAY AFFECT A FEW SITES AS ACTIVITY PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY HAS LIFTED INTO N FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH S-SW FLOW 10-15KTS PRESENT OVER ALL THE LOCAL ATLANTIC.
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WIND FIELD INTO TONIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT
WITH 4FT WELL OFFSHORE IN CONTINUING SHORT PERIODS 3-5SEC DUE TO
OFFSHORE FLOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE COAST FROM LATE MORNING ONWARDS.
WED-THU...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTH GEORGIA AND EASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THOUGH THE
00Z GFS DOES NOT DO THIS UNTIL THU. A CHANCE FOR QUICK MOVING
OFFSHORE SQUALLS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON WED SOUTH
OF CANAVERAL.
FRI-SAT...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FORECAST
TO BUILD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
SUPPORT 10-15 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS QUITE MOIST BOTH DAYS
AND THE LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES A LITTLE STRONGER STEERING FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST ON SAT...SO BOATERS MUST REMAIN MINDFUL OF
THE THREAT THAT OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 88 74 92 76 / 70 30 40 20
MCO 89 75 91 76 / 70 30 50 20
MLB 92 75 89 75 / 60 20 50 20
VRB 92 75 90 73 / 50 20 50 20
LEE 89 76 93 77 / 70 30 50 20
SFB 90 75 94 77 / 70 30 50 20
ORL 89 76 93 77 / 70 30 50 20
FPR 93 75 90 74 / 50 20 50 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
545 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS WITH THE HEAT. NO CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THE TIMING OR ALIGNMENT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS
ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...AND THIS WILL BE
ADVECTING OUR WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
UPPER 70S DEW POINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT INDEX OF 105-110 FROM ABOUT
GALESBURG-EFFINGHAM WESTWARD...WITH THE HIGHER READINGS TOWARD THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY NEAR HAVANA AND BEARDSTOWN.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTING ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY NORTHWEST NEAR THE ILLINOIS/MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
WOULD SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. OF MORE
CONCERN IS THE MCS CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW...HRRR AND HOP-WRF ARE
DOING A RESPECTABLE JOB WITH THE SYSTEM THUS FAR...AND SHOW SOME
OF THE REMNANTS MAKING IT AS FAR AS GALESBURG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NMM MOSTLY FIZZLES IT OUT BEFORE REACHING US...WHILE THE
NAM-12 IS CASUALLY IGNORING ITS EXISTENCE ALTOGETHER. RECENT
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER WOULD LEND
SOME CREDENCE TOWARD THE HRRR SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK CAPPING TO GET THROUGH FIRST BETWEEN HERE AND THERE.
WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR NOW...AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAIN ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL FOCUS HIGHER POP`S
BEGINNING MID-LATE EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND
SHIFTING IT AS FAR AS CHAMPAIGN AND MATTOON BY LATE NIGHT. HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA LARGELY DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE... WITH
THE HIGHER POP`S IN THAT AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MID 70S DEW POINTS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
I-70 ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS BORDERLINE WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...SO WILL NOT PUT AN EXTENSION THERE YET.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE...WITH A
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
GFS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THAT PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AND IN FACT BRINGS A LOBE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WARMER AS THE RIDGE ONLY
GRADUALLY FLATTENS. HAVE GONE THE WARMER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. NEXT CONCERN FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEST-EAST AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SURFACE FRONT FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE THE GFS GETS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH IN A
WEAKENING STATE. HAVE CAPPED POP`S AT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 30% CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE HUMID AIR MASS...BUT SO FAR LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE HELD OFF
LIKELY DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMLI-KSPI-KMVN. EARLIER HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SUGGESTING SOME STORMS AS EARLY AS MID
MORNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE EASED OFF RECENTLY. MORE
CONCERNING IS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH IOWA...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WING OF STORMS FROM KCID NORTHWEST. OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE STORMS HAS BEEN SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE
RECENTLY...AND THE LEADING WING SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TAF SITES. SO...AM PLANNING TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY
DURING THE DAY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-040>044-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-
071>073.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS CARIBOU ME
936 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER AIR WILL BUILD IN FOR WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
935 AM UPDATE...
ILL-DEFINED SFC TROF LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE GULF OF ST.
LAWRENCE AT THIS TIME BASED ON LWR DWPTS ALONG WITH 3 HR PRESSURE
CHG GRADIENT. EXPECT THIS BNDRY WL SLIP SOUTH THRU THE COURSE OF
THE DAY LKLY ENTERING NRN MAINE BY NOON, EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF
ANY THREAT FOR STORMS OVR THE FAR NORTH. DEPENDING ON HOW FAR THIS
BNDRY CAN SLIP WL DETERMINE WHERE STORMS MAY DVLP.
PRIOR RUN OF HRRR SHOWED ESSENTIALLY NIL FOR CONVECTION TDA WHILE
THE LATEST RUN IS NOW SHOWING ISOLD ECHOES DVLPNG DOWNEAST AFT 17Z
THIS AFTN, WHICH THE LATEST RAP IS NOW COMING ON BOARD WITH.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PAGE IS SHOWING 500 J ACRS CNTRL SXNS OF CWA
WITH CIN OVR THE CROWN AND ALSO DOWNEAST IN WAKE OF STORMS AND
LINGERING CLD CVR.
STILL EXPECTING MOST OF CONVECTION TO EXIST MAINLY SOUTH OF A
BANGOR-DANFORTH LINE THIS AFTN THO THIS WL DEPEND ON HOW FAST
BNDRY CAN SLIP THRU. PROGGED 0-6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WL BE
MARGINAL FOR SVR STORMS THIS AFTN WITH CAPES APPCHG 1000 J/KG IN
DOWNEAST AREAS. TWEAKED POP, WX AND SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE
WITH JUST ADJUSTMENTS TO HRLY T/TD VALUES AT THIS TIME.
PREV DISCUSSION BLO...
A SURFACE TROUGH ACCOMPANIED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST DURING
THE DAY TODAY. EXPECT FOCUS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE FROM CENTRAL SOUTHWARD TO INTERIOR DOWNEAST WITH COASTAL AREAS
REMAINING TOO STABLE. WILL INCLUDE WORDING FOR SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WIND IN HIGHEST PROBABILITY AREAS. WILL BLEND THE NAM AND
GFS FOR POPS... QPF AND SKY CONDITIONS. THE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS ALL. THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
FROM THE SUPER BLEND BASED ON LATEST VERIFICATION.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS TERM WILL BE ON THURSDAY W/THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL RIGHT ACROSS THE
DOWNEAST REGION W/THE UPPER LOW DROPPING S ACROSS WESTERN NEW
BRUNSWICK. THIS WILL MEAN A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN WASHINGTON
DOWN ACROSS HANCOCK COUNTIES IN THE AFTERNOON(20-30%). THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS DO SUPPORT SOME INSTABILITY W/SB CAPES AROUND 300 JOULES
AND LIS DOWN TO -2. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 6.0 C/KM. NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO TO
THE DAYCREW`S THINKING OF POSSIBLE TSTMS RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AS THERE WILL BE SOME LLVL CONVERGENCE AND POSSIBLE HEATING. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE TSTMS. FURTHER N AND W, MUCH DRIER AND SUNNY.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AOA NORMAL READINGS FOR
LATE JULY. CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT W/SOME FOG
DEVELOPING. OVERNIGHT LOWS FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST TO AROUND 60 CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST.
FOR THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS
THE STATE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS/NAM AND
ECMWF ALL SHOW DECENT LLVL WARMING W/SOME UPPER DIFFLUENCE OUT
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. SURFACE HEATING LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET
AS THE FRONT IS SLATED TO ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THE
INSTABILITY PARAMETERS INCLUDING THE GFS ARE THERE FOR POSSIBLE
STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTMS LATER IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING MAINLY FOR WESTERN MAINE. THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE:
LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HITTING 6.5 C/KM, SB/MU CAPES 1500+
JOULES W/LIS DOWN TO AROUND -5. INCREASING HUMIDITY SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE INTO THE RANGE OF 65 TO 70.
FREEZING LEVELS/WBZS AROUND 11.5K FT TO SUPPORT HAIL AND SHEAR IS
THERE AS WELL TO SUPPORT WIND POTENTIAL. ATTM, IT LOOKS LIKE A SSE
WIND WILL KEEP LLVLS STABLE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS TO
ALLEVIATE A SEVERE THREAT. THE DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC
HAS THE WESTERN SECTIONS IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SOME STORMS TO GO
SEVERE. ATTM, WILL KEEP GENERAL WORDING FOR TSTMS IN THE FORECAST
AND LET THE DAYCREW ASSESS THIS FURTHER W/THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT, THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM MENTIONED IN THE SHORT
TERM SECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE E OVERNIGHT AND INTO WESTERN
NEW BRUNSWICK BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE TO THE E
W/THE FRONT AND WEAKEN AS THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS E AND
INSTABILITY WEAKENS. USED A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR
PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND HAVE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS(60%) ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS EARLY IN THE NIGHT
AND THEN DROP CHANCES DOWN TO 30-40% AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS.
AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
FRIDAY W/THE BEST SUPPORT FOR ANY PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MAINE. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW LLVLS WARMING ON
FRIDAY W/SOME SLIGHT COOLING ALOFT. THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT THE MENTION OF TSTMS(ISOLATED)
ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON. ATTM, KEPT CHANCES AT
30% AS BEST MOISTURE RESIDES AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL. SHOWERS WILL
END FRIDAY NIGHT W/THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING AND BEST FORCING
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA.
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
SATURDAY W/AN UPPER TROF MOVING INTO THE REGION AT THE TIME OF
PEAK HEATING. ONCE AGAIN, ATMOSPHERE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
DESTABILIZE TO SUPPORT POSSIBLE TSTMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. DECIDED ON 40% POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO THE EVENING
AND THEN THINGS EXPECTED TO CLEAR LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
W/A MORE SUMMER-LIKE PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NEAR TERM: PRIMARILY EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING
IMPROVING IN ALL AREAS TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR FOR KBGR AND KBHB EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE, VFR TO COVER IT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS WILL BE KBHB AS A SSE FLOW COULD LEAD TO MVFR/IFR IN LOW CIGS
AND FOG AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHRA/TSRA
EXPECTED LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING LEADING TO
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR.
&&
.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
CURRENTLY WITH WINDS UNDER 5 KNOTS PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM IS FROM
INCOMING SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL 2 FEET/11 SECONDS. WITH WIND SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO STAY LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT EXPECT THIS CURRENT LONG
PERIOD WAVE SYSTEM TO DOMINATE . WILL USE THE NEAR SHORE WAVE
MODEL TO POPULATE GRIDS.
SHORT TERM: NO EXPECTING ANY SCA HEADLINES THIS TERM. FOG AND
POSSIBLE TSTMS COULD HAMPER NAVIGATION ESPECIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT W/FRONTAL PASSAGES. WINDS DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME ARE FORECAST TO AVERAGE AROUND 10 KTS EXCEPT HIGHER IN
ANY TSTMS. SEAS TO AVERAGE AROUND 3 FT.
&&
.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...FARRAR/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...HEWITT
LONG TERM...HEWITT
AVIATION...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
MARINE...FARRAR/MIGNONE/HEWITT
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
748 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITHIN BASE OF MID-
LEVEL TROUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS
LIFTING NE FROM ERN MONTANA INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY
(MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG) AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ALONG ASSOC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. BY COMPARISION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLOUD FREE AND QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME TEMPS HAVE BEEN QUITE
WARM... GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA FROM DIMINISHING
CONVECTION WITH MCS TO WEST COULD SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AS MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING EXPECT DEWPOINTS
TO LOWER INTO MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN A FEW
LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SITES. COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPS AND LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN INLAND MIN RH/S
DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 20S RH/S OVER THE ERN THIRD OF UPPER MI. THIS WILL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN RECENT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. FORTUNATELY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT
SHOULDN/T INCREASE TOO MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 MPH FOR GUSTS). WEST WINDS HOWEVER COULD GET GUSTY IN WAKE
OF FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
FOCUSING ON PCPN CHCS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM PLAINS WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING WITH THE
REGIONAL GEM PERHAPS A BIT QUICKER WITH FRONT INITIALLY THAN
NAM...GFS OR ECMWF MODELS. DESPITE MINOR DIFFERENCES MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REACHING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
EVENING...INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI AROUND 12Z WED AND EXITING ERN UPPER
MI AROUND 18Z WED. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA THAT BEST DYNAMICS
(MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV) ASSOC WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...TIED TO MOVEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID-LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH LIFT NE INTO SRN
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT SAME TIME...MODELS AND SREF
ENSEMBLE FIELDS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF
UPPER MI INTO WI BY TIME FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES
500 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG FAR WEST IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG EAST OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF BEST DYNAMICS MOVING
WELL TO NORTH AND BEST MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH HAS LED MOST OF
MODELS TO DEPICT MORE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG FRONT HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT ONLY HIGH CHC POPS AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS IN FCST
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST SPREADING
ACROSS REST OF FCST TONIGHT.
ALSO DOWNPLAYED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IN HWO GIVEN LATER TIMING OF
FRONT TOWARD LATE EVENING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING.
ALSO BEST DEEP SHEAR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND OUT OF SYNC
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A 991MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT ANY REALLY STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD LEAVE
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT). THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY RELIEF TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST. AFTER
CLEARING INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE WEST TO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL...TIED TO 850-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS STILL SHOWING A CORE OF 30-45KT 950-900MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (TIGHTEST FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH). WITH THE WESTERN LAKE WARMING
UP...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE AS MUCH OF AN AFFECT AS
EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN HAVING GUSTS TO
35-40KTS OVER LSZ263-264. THUS...WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OVER THE LAND...STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO OCCUR OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-40MPH AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45MPH AROUND
THE BROCKWAY MOUNTAIN AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BUT HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY KEEP
GALES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (OCCURRING
ABOUT EVERY 8-12HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND). THESE SERIES OF WAVES WILL
OCCUR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. MOST WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL LARGELY SHOW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THEM...AND JUST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MARK A SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN RECENTLY ON THE CFS AND LONG RANGE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 740 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FOR THE TAF SITES. EXPECT LOWERING
CIGS FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL/PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT FROM THE PLAINS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH COVERAGE OF
SHRA ALONG THE FRONT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE AT THIS TIME PREVAILING
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR. SHRA WILL END OVERNIGHT AT THE WESTERN
TAF SITES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. EXPECT SOME LLWS TO
DEVELOP AT THE WESTERN TAF SITES TOWARD EVENING AS WINDS DECREASE AT
THE SFC BUT STRENGTHEN JUST OFF THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
FRONT.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
ACROSS MANITOBA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF
STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST NEAR 25KTS
OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT SW-W GALES 35 TO 40
KNOTS OVER MAINLY WEST AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THURSDAY...ALLOWING
A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS WEST WINDS
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 20 KTS. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...VOSS
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
607 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITHIN BASE OF MID-
LEVEL TROUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS
LIFTING NE FROM ERN MONTANA INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY
(MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG) AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ALONG ASSOC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. BY COMPARISION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLOUD FREE AND QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME TEMPS HAVE BEEN QUITE
WARM... GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA FROM DIMINISHING
CONVECTION WITH MCS TO WEST COULD SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AS MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING EXPECT DEWPOINTS
TO LOWER INTO MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN A FEW
LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SITES. COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPS AND LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN INLAND MIN RH/S
DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 20S RH/S OVER THE ERN THIRD OF UPPER MI. THIS WILL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN RECENT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. FORTUNATELY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT
SHOULDN/T INCREASE TOO MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 MPH FOR GUSTS). WEST WINDS HOWEVER COULD GET GUSTY IN WAKE
OF FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
FOCUSING ON PCPN CHCS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM PLAINS WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING WITH THE
REGIONAL GEM PERHAPS A BIT QUICKER WITH FRONT INITIALLY THAN
NAM...GFS OR ECMWF MODELS. DESPITE MINOR DIFFERENCES MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REACHING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
EVENING...INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI AROUND 12Z WED AND EXITING ERN UPPER
MI AROUND 18Z WED. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA THAT BEST DYNAMICS
(MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV) ASSOC WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...TIED TO MOVEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID-LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH LIFT NE INTO SRN
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT SAME TIME...MODELS AND SREF
ENSEMBLE FIELDS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF
UPPER MI INTO WI BY TIME FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES
500 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG FAR WEST IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG EAST OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF BEST DYNAMICS MOVING
WELL TO NORTH AND BEST MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH HAS LED MOST OF
MODELS TO DEPICT MORE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG FRONT HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT ONLY HIGH CHC POPS AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS IN FCST
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST SPREADING
ACROSS REST OF FCST TONIGHT.
ALSO DOWNPLAYED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IN HWO GIVEN LATER TIMING OF
FRONT TOWARD LATE EVENING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING.
ALSO BEST DEEP SHEAR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND OUT OF SYNC
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A 991MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT ANY REALLY STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD LEAVE
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT). THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY RELIEF TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST. AFTER
CLEARING INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE WEST TO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL...TIED TO 850-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS STILL SHOWING A CORE OF 30-45KT 950-900MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (TIGHTEST FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH). WITH THE WESTERN LAKE WARMING
UP...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE AS MUCH OF AN AFFECT AS
EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN HAVING GUSTS TO
35-40KTS OVER LSZ263-264. THUS...WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OVER THE LAND...STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO OCCUR OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-40MPH AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45MPH AROUND
THE BROCKWAY MOUNTAIN AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BUT HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY KEEP
GALES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (OCCURRING
ABOUT EVERY 8-12HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND). THESE SERIES OF WAVES WILL
OCCUR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. MOST WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL LARGELY SHOW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THEM...AND JUST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MARK A SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN RECENTLY ON THE CFS AND LONG RANGE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN THIS MORNING WILL LIFT
ACROSS MANITOBA TONIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON BAY WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT A TROUGH WILL EXTEND DOWN THROUGH
LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE RETURN OF
STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST NEAR 25KTS
OVER MAINLY ERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. EXPECT SW-W GALES 35 TO 40
KNOTS OVER MAINLY WEST AND NCNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH PATCHY FOG WILL LINGER OVER MAINLY NORTHERN LAKE
SUPERIOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES THURSDAY...ALLOWING
A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS WEST WINDS
SUBSIDE TO AROUND 20 KTS. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK
TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY
LOW AS WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY BLO 20 KNOTS.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...07
MARINE...VOSS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
613 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
SCATTERED TSRA CONTINUE MAINLY FROM NORTH OF KOMA TO NORTHWEST OF
KLNK. ACTIVITY MAY HANG AROUND INTO MID MORNING BEFORE WEAKENING
AND SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP LATER AS THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. UNCERTAINTY IS TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE TSRA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON SO WILL JUST HAVE A PROB GROUP FOR -SHRA. FORECASTS
WILL NEED ADJUSTMENT LATER AS THINGS EVOLVE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT KOFK BY AROUND MID DAY AND THEN FOR KOMA AND KLNK BY
EVENING.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MILLER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GRAND FORKS ND
852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
CONDITIONS. CLOUDS ARE THINNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY ALREADY...AND CLOUDS EAST OF THE VALLEY SHOULD THIN OUT
BY LATER MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE KBJI TO
KBDE AREA...BUT NO LONGER ANY LIGHTNING THERE. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLOWLY PUSH EAST THIS MORNING TOO LEAVING MOST AREAS DRY
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. NOT SURE YET ABOUT ANY REDEVELOPMENT
OVER OUR MN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP KEEPS IT DRY WHILE
THE LATEST NAM12 SHOWS A SMALL BIT OF REDEVELOPMENT. EITHER WAY
NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER FROM IT. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE
THE INCREASING WEST WINDS.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
150+M HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST OVER SOUTHERN MAN AND ONTARIO FOR TODAY
AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG MT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST SASK FORECAST TO DEEPEN
SIGNIFICANTLY THROUGH 18Z THEN MOVE INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO BY 48
HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF OVER THE AREA
AND OVER 2 INCHES OVER EASTERN SD. EAST-WEST CROSS SECTION INDICATES
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST TODAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOIST AIR SHIFTS EAST TODAY AS DRY SLOT MOVES
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT STRONGEST STORMS TO THE SOUTH...OVER SD OR ON
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE CURRENT LINE. MAY KEEP THE SAME TREND FOR
TODAY. LINE CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE AN ADIABATIC LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ESSENTIALLY THROUGH WED EVENING EXCEPTING 12Z WED. WINDS TO 60 KNOTS
IN THIS LAYER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY THE NORTHWEST
ZONES. WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR ABOUT THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MAY NEED A HIGH WIND WARNING NORTHWEST
ZONES...WILL LET NEXT SHIFT DETERMINE IF NEEDED. WINDY YET WED
MORNING AND DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY.
SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP EXPECTED OVER THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES TUE
NIGHT AND WED.
SHORT WAVE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
THU AFTER AND EVENING AND MAY PRODUCE PRECIP OVER NORTHERN ZONES.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
FOR FRI THROUGH MON...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES IN NW FLOW ALOFT...WITH
THE BEST WAVE THIS WEEKEND. TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE OF ANY
CONVECTION WILL HINGE ON IF WAVES COME THROUGH AT MAX HEATING...SO
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ON WHAT DAY COULD PRODUCE SHOWERS/STORMS.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MVFR CIGS WERE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA. CIGS
WERE GENERALLY BETWEEN 10 HUNDRED AND 20 HUNDRED FT. SOME IFR CIGS
OF 4 TO 6 HUNDRED FT WAS IN THE SOUTHWEST ZONES. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WERE OVER THE AREA. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO SHIFT EAST THIS
MORNING. MVFR TO VFR CIGS BETWEEN 1 THOUSAND AND 4 THOUSAND FT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING AND INTO THE NORTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052-054.
MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR MNZ001-004-005-007-008-013-014.
&&
$$
UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...HOPPES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
...UPDATE...
.DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.
BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 97 77 96 73 / 0 0 10 10
FSM 98 76 99 75 / 20 0 10 10
MLC 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 10 10
BVO 96 73 92 69 / 0 10 10 10
FYV 93 72 94 70 / 20 0 10 10
BYV 92 73 94 69 / 20 0 10 10
MKO 96 74 97 74 / 0 0 10 10
MIO 95 73 93 69 / 0 0 10 10
F10 96 74 96 75 / 0 0 10 10
HHW 98 73 99 76 / 10 0 0 10
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
648 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE CWA. MCS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FEATURING MAINLY SUB
SEVERE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THIS POINT. SUSTAINING UPPER
FORCING IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND SQUALL LINE
PUSHING TOWARD A BIT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERALL. SEE NO REASON
THAT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN IN A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES EAST AT 40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
BREAKDOWN TO A FEW VORTICES...BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH
PERSISTENT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS POINT...
AND PROSPECT FOR KEEPING FOCUSED UPDRAFTS WILL NOT GET ANY BETTER
WITH THE STATE OF THE AIRMASS. BOUNDARY WILL START TO LAY OUT A BIT
MORE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH TIME EARLY MORNING...AND HAVE
LINGERED SOME CHANCE LEVEL POPS INTO MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHARPER DRYING BACK
WEST OF THE CWA AT 09Z...AND THIS MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY
SQUALL LINE WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED JUST A TOUCH SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUN...
QUESTION WHETHER WILL BE ABLE TO REACH A RENEWED CONVECTIVE POINT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS TO CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH OF A CAP INDICATED ON FAIRLY WARM RAP TO REALLY LIMIT ANY POP
MENTION TO LOWER CHANCE...AND SHOULD BE LARGELY CLEAR OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 00-01Z. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD HAVE A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
AFTER 19-20Z.
LIKELY GOING TO BE BIT SLOWER RELAXING HUMIDITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH BOUNDARY STILL WELL BACK IN NW IA AND SW MN BY
18Z...BUT EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. STRONGER PUSH OF COOLING ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH WESTERN WINDS DECOUPLING
SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH COMPARED TO NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH LOOKING DRY AND WARM. WEDNESDAY ALSO
LOOKING A BIT WINDY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE A FEW
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. BY THURSDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS A BIT WARMER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND THURSDAY THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SATURDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE DAY WHEN IT COULD
GET HOTTEST SO WILL KEEP SOME 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BE PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD ANYTHING OTHER THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN ISSUES WITH AVIATION DEAL WITH DEPARTING CONVECTION IN
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
COULD YET SEE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS AROUND KSUX THROUGH THIS
MORNING. WAKE OF CONVECTIVE LINE BACK TO LOCATION OF THE
FRONTAL ZONE IN THE WESTERN CWA COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS MIXING INCREASES BEHIND BOUNDARY LATER THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...CHAPMAN
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1047 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.UPDATE...
TWO AREAS OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE
AREA...DRIVEN MAINLY BY 700 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION AND A PASSING
500 MB VORTICITY MAXIMUM. THE FIRST BATCH HAS SHOWN SOME WEAKENING
TRENDS IN THE PAST FEW RADAR SCANS...AND SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.
THE SECOND AREA HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED INTO A CONVECTIVE LINE
OVER EASTERN IOWA IN THE PAST HOUR. THERE IS A COLD POOL BEHIND
IT...SO THIS MAY CONTINUE EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOW FAR EAST IS THE BIG QUESTION.
THE TWO HRRR MODEL VERSIONS ARE SHOWING DIFFERING
SOLUTIONS...WITH ONE TAKING IT THROUGH MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...AND THE OTHER WIPING IT OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
FOR NOW...INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT IN THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS THIS AREA SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. KEPT LOWER POPS TO THE EAST OF THERE...GIVEN SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR EAST THIS PRECIPITATION WILL GET.
MEAN LAYER CAPES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET VERY HIGH...AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS WEAK...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. COULD
SEE GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS WITH THE LINE OF STORMS...IF
THEY MAKE IT INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE GIVEN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT HIGHS THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH MOST OF THE AREA IS ALREADY INTO THE LOWER 80S.
STILL MAY NEED TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...
MADISON MAY SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THE FIRST BATCH OF
PRECIPITATION LATER THIS MORNING...THOUGH THIS MAY DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THERE. THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS MAY BRING
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KNOTS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER...BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL MAKE IT THERE
TOO. FOR NOW...WILL MENTION RAIN SHOWERS IN TAF BUT MAY LEAVE OUT
THUNDER. MAY SEE BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WITH THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE TO HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE REST
OF TODAY. LIGHT/MODERATE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED.
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS TAF
SITES. MAY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT TIMES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION PREVAILING THUNDER WEST TO EAST IN TAFS LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS POSSIBLE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY AT ALL SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.
CONVECTION FROM THE OVERNIGHT QLCS COMPLEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SHOULD BE APPROACHING OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA BY AROUND MID DAY.
THE MESO MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THAT. BUT IT WILL
BE GOING THROUGH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL DISSIPATION...SO ANTICIPATING
JUST HOW FAR EAST IT WILL GET BEFORE WIPING OUT IS CHALLENGING. THE
AIRMASS OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS QUITE DRY AND STABLE. I/LL KEEP
IT MOSTLY WEST OF MADISON. THEN WE SHOULD BE QUIET FROM MID
AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. 925MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 23-24C
RANGE...SO ANOTHER WARM AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG
WITH RISING DEWPOINTS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WITH CLOUD COVER
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS.
ATTENTION WILL THEN FOCUS ON THE NEXT ROUND OF STORMS FOR TONIGHT. A
COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST...EVENTUALLY
REACHING MADISON TOWARD SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS
LIMITED BY A RATHER WEAK WIND FIELD THROUGH THE COLUMN AND A LATER
ARRIVAL TIME OF THE CONVECTION. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING RAPIDLY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE BY ABOUT
AN INCH...TO JUST OVER 2 INCHES BY THIS EVENING. HOW THE CONVECTION
DEVELOPS WILL BE INFLUENCED GREATLY BY THE OUTFLOW FROM THE MORNING
CONVECTION. THUS...THERE ARE A FEW SCENARIOS AMONG THE MODELS WITH
REGARD TO TIMING/COVERAGE OF THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP. THE MID LEVELS
SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE BEING FLATTENED BY SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ALREADY THIS EVENING. THIS IS AHEAD OF A MUCH LARGER UPPER LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA/NCNTRL U.S. GIVEN THAT DISTANCE...THE MID LEVEL
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. IT LOOKS LIKE THE
NEXT ROUND WILL MOSTLY STAY BACK CLOSER TO THE LOW LEVEL FRONT AS
FORCING AHEAD OF IT WILL BE ON THE WEAK SIDE. JUST CAN/T RULE OUT
SOME LEADING SHOWERS/STORMS. THERE SHOULD BE A DECENT RIBBON OF HIGH
SFC DEWPOINTS RIDING JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT AS WELL. CAPE
VALUES ARE NOTHING SPECIAL...IN THE 700-1300J/KG RANGE. HOPEFULLY...WE
CAN GET SOME WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...AS CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT
QUITE A BIT LATELY.
WEDNESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE FRONT EXITS ERN WI VERY EARLY IN THE DAY WITH POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LINGERING SHRA. HOWEVER WARM WESTERLY FLOW WILL KICK IN
WITH 925 TEMPS IN THE 21-23C RANGE. EXPECTING A DROPOFF IN DEW
POINTS BUT NOT SO IN THE TEMP DEPT. SHOULD SEE A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE ONCE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT EXITS ERN WI.
THURSDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WNW MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING BY ACRS NRN
WI AND INTO THE U.P. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FORCING HERE WITH 925
TEMPS RISING BACK UP...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WHERE 925 TEMPS SURGE
AS HIGH AS 26C. SO WITH THE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING
EXPECT TEMPS TO BE RATHER WARM...AT LEAST WELL INTO THE 80S.
FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
850 THERMAL RIDGE EXTENDS INTO SRN WI WITH SURFACE/850 TROUGH
PROGGD TO SWING THROUGH. GFS SHOWS SPOTTY PRECIP THOUGH NOT MUCH
UPPER SUPPORT TO LATCH ONTO. SPOTTY PRECIP ON GFS IS SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN DRIER THAN THE 12Z RUN. PER COLLAB
WITH KLOT HAVE ELECTED TO REMOVE THE SMALL SUPERBLEND POPS THAT
WERE SHOWN FOR THE ERN CWA.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS AND TO THE SOUTH OF WI THIS
PERIOD. PRECIP CHANCES ARE LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR WEST WITH THE
NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH. 925 TEMPS ARE PROGGD TO STILL BE IN THE
LOWER 20S CELSIUS SO MORE 80S IN THE WORKS.
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
APPEARS THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT GENERATE PRECIP THIS PERIOD WITH STRONG WNW UPPER FLOW
PERSISTING.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE APPROACHING WESTERN WISCONSIN BY LATE MORNING...BUT SHOULD
DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING KMSN. THEREFORE LOOK FOR QUIET...VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS AT KMSN
WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND A FEW HOURS LATER
AT KMKE/KUES/KENW. THE STORMS SHOULD WE WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE BY THE TIME THEY REACH EASTERN WISCONSIN LATER TONIGHT.
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE
THROUGH.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...DAVIS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...COLLAR
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS RENO NV
152 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, KEEPING SMOKE FROM WEST SLOPE WILDFIRES AWAY FROM THE
REGION. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST LATE WEEK
WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION STARTING THURSDAY, WITH
DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY.
FAIRLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION LED TO NE WINDS
LAST NIGHT IN THE TAHOE/SIERRA REGION TO 30 MPH. WE SAW THE SURGES
OF NE WIND ON TAHOE WITH THE UNR SEISMO CAMERA FROM SNOW VALLEY
PEAK. THIS GRADIENT WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS EVENING BUT THEN
START TO RELAX TOMORROW, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES
EACH DAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ON THE MID-SLOPES AND EAST OF 395. BASED ON
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE, NE FLOW WILL KEEP SMOKE OUT OF THE EASTERN
SIERRA. THOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HAZE NEAR MAMMOTH FROM THE
WILLOW FIRE AS A BRIEF PERIOD OF WESTERLIES KICKS IN EARLY THIS
EVENING.
LIKELY TO SEE A SCATTERING OF CUMULUS OVER THE SIERRA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT GFS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A STRONG CAP SO THEY WILL
HAVE LIMITED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT. FLOW ALOFT TURNS SOUTHERLY
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, SLOWLY
BRINGING IN MOISTURE ABOVE 500MB. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED TSTMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE SIERRA CREST AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS OF MONO COUNTY, BUT INSTABILITY IS QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE SO
COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL. FROM WHAT STORMS DO FORM - FAIRLY DRY
SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG OUTFLOWS 50+ MPH, ALONG WITH
RISK OF LIGHTNING FIRE STARTS. CS
.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON. GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS SHIFTING TOWARDS HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
RETURN OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA
FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE STILL SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL FORECAST MODELS, BUT
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORMS
COVERAGE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FROM
HEATING WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE MAY BE A COUPLE OF
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHICH DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING, COULD RESULT IN THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OR
BEGIN EARLIER IN THE DAY. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
DETAILS ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION OF STORMS, BUT ANYONE WITH
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR THE WEEKEND SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER FORECAST. WEISHAHN
&&
.AVIATION...
AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL PERSIST TODAY WITH GUSTY WINDS OVER
SIERRA RIDGES DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE HAZE AND SMOKE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CREST AND AWAY
FROM EASTERN SIERRA TERMINALS. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA TOMORROW. HOHMANN/WEISHAHN
&&
.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&
$$
FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MELBOURNE FL
201 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT/REST OF TUE AFTERNOON...SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH FROM THE FLORIDA SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COASTS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS.
LATEST RUC 500MB PLOT SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WAS STILL JUST WEST
OF CENTRAL FLORIDA AND VERIFIED WITH USAF VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS
AT/VICINITY OF KENNEDY SPACE CENTER DETECTING SOUTHWEST WIND 20 TO
30 KNOTS THROUGH 6000 FEET. TEMPERATURES AT 500MB PER BOTH TAMPA AND
CAPE CANAVERAL 27/12Z SOUNDINGS WERE AROUND -5C. AS LONG AS CENTRAL
FLORIDA IS IN THE DEEP AND BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW... DEEP MOISTURE AND
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN WARM. THIS IS MORE CONDUCIVE FOR FAST
MOVING HEAVY SHOWERS ANY TIME. EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE MARTIN AND MOST
OF SAINT LUCIE COUNTIES WHICH ARE DOWNWIND OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND IN
THE LAKE SHADOW EFFECT.
TUE OVERNIGHT-THU NIGHT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE ONGOING
SYNOPTIC SCALE PICTURE WITH UPPER LEVEL HIGHS TO THE WEST AND TO THE
EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND A TROUGH OF LOWER PRESSURE BETWEEN
THE TWO LEVEL HIGH CENTERS. QUASI STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING FROM
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO/FLORIDA BIG
BEND AREAS SLIDES UP/DOWN CENTRAL FLORIDA AS SHORT WAVES RIDING
OVERTOP OF THE MID NATION RIDGE DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND FLORIDA. EXACT TIMING OF WHEN THESE SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE
THE FRONT UP/DOWN HARD TO FORECAST MUCH BEYOND 12-24 HOURS. DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE/PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO REMAIN BETWEEN
2.09 AND 2.5 INCHES THROUGH THU NIGHT...AND BEYOND. GFS MAV MOS
LOOKS TO HAVE MADE A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT OF AROUND 20 PERCENT FROM A
50 TO A 30 POP FROM 24 HOURS AGO. STILL SCATTERED/CHANCE POP THOUGH.
THE 28/12Z GFS ATTEMPTS TO PUSH THE STATIONARY FRONT INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BUT FOR NOW WILL TAKE A WAIT AND SEE ATTITUDE IF THAT REALLY
HAPPENS.
FRI...THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALOFT. THERE IS NO APPARENT SUPPRESSING FORCE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY DRY OUT THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS...THOUGH THE 00Z GFS
DID SHOW MINOR DRYING IN THE NORTH WED AND IN THE SOUTH THU. THESE
SUBTLE DAY TO DAY CHANGES ARE DIFFICULT TO PRECISELY FORECAST...BUT
DID BLEND THEM INTO THE FORECAST POPS WHICH ARE CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
VALUES.
WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUING WE WILL HAVE AT LEAST
SCATTERED POPS EACH DAY. CAME OUT WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH HALF
ON THU AND ACROSS THE AREA FRI. THE DAILY CHANGES IN RAIN CHANCES
AND CLOUDINESS WILL DICTATE MAX TEMPS BUT DID LEAN TOWARDS SLIGHTLY
LOWER CONSENSUS VALUES.
WEEKEND-NEXT TUE...THE FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AT THESE LATITUDES WILL
LIKELY BE IN A NEAR STAND OFF AS WESTERN CONUS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
HOLD SWAY WHILE TROUGHING OVER THE EAST KEEPS ATLANTIC RIDGE FROM
BUILDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN EARNEST. WEAKNESS IN THE
RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN NEARBY AND ONLY LIMITED DEEP LAYER DRYING IS
INDICATED. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO NUDGE TOWARDS CENTRAL
FLORIDA BUT STEERING FLOW FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST SHOULD KEEP
SCATTERED POPS OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
.AVIATION...WENT WITH PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH 29/00Z.
TIME OF IFR CEILINGS TOO SHORT TO GO WITH TEMPO GROUP. KDAB WAS
THE ONLY TAF SITE THAT REPORT TS MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH FAST
MOVING SHOWERS A VCTS MAY BE A BETTER CALL THAN A TEMPO GROUP. VFR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. VCSH LATE OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW OVER THE GULF MOVE NORTHEAST.
.MARINE...
CURRENT-TONIGHT...NOAA BUOYS RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15
TO 20 KNOTS AND 2 TO 4 FOOT SEAS. THE SCRIPPS BUOYS RECORDING 1 TO 2
FOOT SEAS. WILL KEEP THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS ON
THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
PREVIOUS AFD
WED-THU...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO NORTH FLORIDA AND SOUTH
GEORGIA AND EASE THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...THOUGH THE 00Z GFS
DOES NOT DO THIS UNTIL THU. A CHANCE FOR QUICK MOVING OFFSHORE
SQUALLS/STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY ON WED SOUTH OF
CANAVERAL.
FRI-SAT...THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS IS STILL FORECAST TO
BUILD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SAT. PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD SUPPORT
10-15 KNOT SOUTHWEST FLOW. IT LOOKS QUITE MOIST BOTH DAYS AND THE
LATEST GFS RUN INDICATES A LITTLE STRONGER STEERING FLOW OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST ON SAT...SO BOATERS MUST REMAIN MINDFUL OF THE THREAT THAT
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS POSE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 74 91 74 92 / 40 30 20 30
MCO 76 92 75 92 / 40 30 20 30
MLB 76 91 74 91 / 40 40 20 30
VRB 75 91 73 91 / 20 40 20 30
LEE 76 93 77 92 / 30 30 20 30
SFB 76 92 76 92 / 40 30 20 30
ORL 77 92 77 92 / 40 30 20 30
FPR 75 91 73 92 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&
$$
IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS COLUMBIA SC
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
SUFFICIENT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ALONG WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO BRING A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT AND
ENHANCED ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AFFECT OUR REGION.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AN AXIS OF CONVERGENCE RUNNING FROM THE CSRA INTO THE CATAWBA
REGION HAS ALLOWED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AROUND 17Z. MODERATE
INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL SUPPORT FURTHER
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 2
INCHES. STORM MOTION WILL BE WEAK WITH LITTLE WIND IN THE CLOUD
LAYER. SLOW MOVING CONVECTION WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES MAY RAISE A
FLOODING CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS DIURNAL HEATING CUTS OFF.
LIGHT WINDS AND HIGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR WEST WITH UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE EAST COAST. WEAKENING UPPER LOW AND STALLED FRONT TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. AN UPPER IMPULSE OR TWO ALONG WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH...SEA BREEZE...OR OTHER BOUNDARIES AND SUFFICIENT
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UPPER HIGH CENTER TO SHIFT WEST TO
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...WITH DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
CONUS...ALLOWING A FRONT TO SLOWLY SHIFT SE INTO OUR REGION
FRIDAY. SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF. GFS APPEARS
TO MOVE FRONT THROUGH FRI NT OR EARLY SATURDAY STALLING IT TO OUR
SOUTH SAT INTO MON...WHILE ECWMF APPEARS TO STALL THE FRONT A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH OVER OUR FA. ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH MAY BE ABLE TO GET ENTRAINED
INTO THE SYSTEM. THIS AREA WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON OUR REGION.
CONTINUED TO ACCEPT A BLEND OF GUIDANCE AND ONGOING
FORECAST...LEADING TO INCREASED POPS FRIDAY WITH THE FRONT...AND
INDICATING A LITTLE HIGHER POPS TO THE SOUTH SAT INTO SUN.
UNCERTAINTIES LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING POSITION AND STATUS OF FRONT AND ANY
SURFACE WAVES/UPPER VORTS. MODELS SUGGEST MEAN UPPER TROUGH TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD ALONG WITH INDICATIONS OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE.
SO...CHANCE POPS APPEAR OK FOR THAT TIME FRAME.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL TAF SITES AND
IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS EARLY THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS AND
CSRA EARLY THIS EVENING. HRRR INDICATING CONVECTION WILL END LATER
THIS EVENING.
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE FA MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LIGHT WINDS
FAVOR LOW STRATUS IN THE MIDLANDS AND THE EASTERN FA. THE MODELS
ARE MOST PESSIMISTIC AT OGB BRINGING IN RESTRICTIONS AROUND 09Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN MAINLY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
&&
$$
99
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LINCOLN IL
1103 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF THE COMPLEX IN EASTERN
IA THIS MORNING MOVING THROUGH NRN KNOX AND NRN PEORIA COUNTIES
ALONG AND NW OF THE IL RIVER VALLEY. OTHER THAN THAT, WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE STATE, WITH VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF AIRMASS DIFFERENTIATION IN HUMIDITY, BUT THE
TEMPS ARE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TO THE SOUTH. MOVEMENT OF THAT
WARMER AIRMASS IS NOT QUICK AS UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY RIDGE
BUILDING AND WEAK FLOW. SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND
ERODE THE SHOWERS TO THE NW AS THEY APPROACH ILX AND AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR SHIFTS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST ARE NECESSARY.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY REMAINS WITH THE HEAT. NO CHANGES PLANNED
FOR THE TIMING OR ALIGNMENT OF THE HEAT ADVISORY. DEW POINTS
ALREADY IN THE MID 70S ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...AND THIS WILL BE
ADVECTING OUR WAY THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
UPPER 70S DEW POINTS BY LATE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CWA. THIS TRANSLATES TO HEAT INDEX OF 105-110 FROM ABOUT
GALESBURG-EFFINGHAM WESTWARD...WITH THE HIGHER READINGS TOWARD THE
ILLINOIS RIVER VALLEY NEAR HAVANA AND BEARDSTOWN.
STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING A WEAK BOUNDARY PERSISTING ALONG THE
OHIO VALLEY NORTHWEST NEAR THE ILLINOIS/MISSOURI BORDER. THIS
WOULD SERVE AS ONE FOCUS FOR ANY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT. OF MORE
CONCERN IS THE MCS CURRENTLY ROLLING ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE ARW...HRRR AND HOP-WRF ARE
DOING A RESPECTABLE JOB WITH THE SYSTEM THUS FAR...AND SHOW SOME
OF THE REMNANTS MAKING IT AS FAR AS GALESBURG BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE NMM MOSTLY FIZZLES IT OUT BEFORE REACHING US...WHILE THE
NAM-12 IS CASUALLY IGNORING ITS EXISTENCE ALTOGETHER. RECENT
SOUTHWARD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER WOULD LEND
SOME CREDENCE TOWARD THE HRRR SOLUTION...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME WEAK CAPPING TO GET THROUGH FIRST BETWEEN HERE AND THERE.
WILL STICK WITH ISOLATED STORMS FOR NOW...AS EARLY AS MID-MORNING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
MAIN COLD FRONT STILL SCHEDULED TO CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MAIN ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER SHOULD TAKE PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND ROLL EAST-SOUTHEAST. WILL FOCUS HIGHER POP`S
BEGINNING MID-LATE EVENING NORTHWEST OF THE ILLINOIS RIVER...AND
SHIFTING IT AS FAR AS CHAMPAIGN AND MATTOON BY LATE NIGHT. HAVE
KEPT THE SOUTHEAST CWA LARGELY DRY UNTIL CLOSER TO SUNRISE... WITH
THE HIGHER POP`S IN THAT AREA LATER ON WEDNESDAY. SIGNIFICANTLY
DRIER AIR WILL BE PUSHING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MID 70S DEW POINTS ARE STILL LIKELY ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA INTO THE AFTERNOON. MAY NEED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY SOUTH OF
I-70 ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THIS IS BORDERLINE WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CONVECTION...SO WILL NOT PUT AN EXTENSION THERE YET.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS DRY AND MORE COMFORTABLE...WITH A
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW AS THE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
GFS SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THAT PATTERN FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AND IN FACT BRINGS A LOBE OF MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE ECMWF IS WARMER AS THE RIDGE ONLY
GRADUALLY FLATTENS. HAVE GONE THE WARMER SOLUTION ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. NEXT CONCERN FOR RAIN WILL BE LATE
WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
WEST-EAST AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AT THE TIME. THE ECMWF KEEPS IT STRONG
ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE SURFACE FRONT FROM MAKING MUCH PROGRESS
SOUTH OF I-80...WHILE THE GFS GETS THE BOUNDARY THROUGH IN A
WEAKENING STATE. HAVE CAPPED POP`S AT SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTH ON SUNDAY...BUT BROUGHT SOME 30% CHANCES IN FOR MONDAY AS
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES OF 2-4SM OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE HUMID AIR MASS...BUT SO FAR LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE HELD OFF
LIKELY DUE TO SOME HIGH CLOUD REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT ISOLATED STORMS ALONG A WEAK BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR KMLI-KSPI-KMVN. EARLIER HIGH-RESOLUTION
MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEEN SUGGESTING SOME STORMS AS EARLY AS MID
MORNING WEST OF THE BOUNDARY...BUT HAVE EASED OFF RECENTLY. MORE
CONCERNING IS A LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING THROUGH IOWA...
WITH AN ASSOCIATED WING OF STORMS FROM KCID NORTHWEST. OVERALL
WEAKENING OF THE STORMS HAS BEEN SEEN ON INFRARED SATELLITE
RECENTLY...AND THE LEADING WING SHOULD TRACK NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
ILLINOIS TAF SITES. SO...AM PLANNING TO KEEP THE TAF SITES DRY
DURING THE DAY. THUNDER CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT
SHOULD BE PASSING THROUGH THE TAF SITES AFTER 12Z WITH A WIND
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ILZ027>031-036>038-
040>044-047>054-056-061>063-066>068-071>073.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HJS
SHORT TERM...GEELHART
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...GEELHART
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LOUISVILLE KY
545 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015
...Forecast Update...
Issued at 545 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015
Did a grid update earlier this hour to account for current radar
trends. Latest HRRR finally getting a handle on precip this
afternoon, and it shows this precip decaying with sunset. Previous
runs had the cells over central Illinois decaying immediately after
model initialization, which has not occurred yet. Latest CIMSS
NearCast does show the central part of our county warning area being
a less likely place for storm development, and despite stronger
outflows moving through that region, we only are seeing weak storms.
Latest AMDAR data from a flight into SDF confirms this thinking,
with a fairly strong cap above 600 mb that is limiting how tall the
storms near SDF are getting.
Despite that cap, the presence of these boundaries as well as a
muggy airmass should keep non-severe storms forming over the next
few hours until we can get the sun to set. Latest NAM still trying
to show a wave of decaying storms coming in to our western forecast
area toward daybreak. These would be from the cells now over Iowa as
they round the top of the ridge over the mid MS valley. Made no
changes to the daybreak period for now.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 325 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015
Scattered storms were ongoing across the area as of 19Z. Some
storms were strong with lots of lightning, torrential rainfall, and
gusty winds up to around 40 mph. Expect convection to continue
through the evening hours as an upper level shortwave dropping SE
out of IL keeps storms going or even enhances development this
evening. With ample instability in place as well as DCAPE, high
precipitable water values, and weak boundaries for storms to train
along, a strong wind threat and localized flooding threat will
continue through the evening hours. Storms should diminish through
the late evening hours with the area becoming completely dry after
midnight. Expect low temps in the low to mid 70s with some patchy
fog/haze developing after midnight as it has done the past few
mornings.
For Wednesday, we`ll start the day with a dying complex of storms
entering areas west of I-65. This morning batch should fizzle out
or become just isld showers by mid morning. Some breaks in the
clouds are expected during the morning and early afternoon hours
allowing some instability to build. A cold front will approach the
area Wed afternoon causing more convection to fire. Although
morning clouds/precip may inhibit the environment somewhat and the
front is pretty weak, we should still have enough forcing and
instability to produce strong to marginally severe storms with
strong winds, small hail, and torrential rainfall. Storms should
persist through the evening before diminishing by late evening with
the cold front passage. Highs for Wed should range through the
upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values in the lower 100s
mainly west of I-65. The good news is any precip should provide
relief from the heat tomorrow and there is a good chance for precip
to occur 40-50%. Wed night low temps should range through upper
60s/lower 70s.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015
The main forecast concern in the long term is temperatures as much
of the extended forecast looks dry across the lower Ohio Valley. The
start of the period /Thursday morning/ will feature a cold front
bisecting the forecast area. A pool of high moisture along and ahead
of the front combined with weak lift will support the chance of
showers/storms during the morning hours across south-central
Kentucky. The front then quickly drops into TN by 18z and in its
wake, much drier and more pleasant conditions will build into the
region.
Plan on low humidity and more pleasant summer conditions Thursday
afternoon through Friday as highs top out right around normal /mid
to upper 80s/ and overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.
Outside of scattered afternoon cumulus, skies look to be mostly
sunny to sunny.
A weak front approaches from the northwest on Saturday but will
likely wash out before making it to the Ohio River. Humidity will
slowly increase this weekend as dewpoints creep back up into the
mid/upper 60s. Look for afternoon highs to gradually warm as well,
approaching 90 degrees by Sunday.
Going into next week, will continue to advertise a dry forecast as
approaching fronts wash out or stall to the northwest. Some signals
that a stronger front may make a push through the area mid to late
week but model uncertainty is high.
&&
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated 125 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2015
Isld to scattered t-storms will continue to develop over the region
this afternoon/evening as upper level shortwaves on the NE side of
an upper ridge continue to spark convection in a moist, unstable
atmosphere. Because coverage of storms is not great and confidence
is low if one will hit a TAF site, left VCTS in the TAFs through
this evening. Will need to add a tempo if a cell develops near the
TAF sites though. We should see a break in activity tonight with
winds going calm or light and vrb. Some light br or hz is expected
at all TAF sites. Winds will be WNW mainly staying under 7kts for
tomorrow with an approaching cold front bringing another chance for
shower/storms.
&&
.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&
$$
Update.........RJS
Short Term.....AMS
Long Term......ZBT
Aviation.......AMS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
334 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITHIN BASE OF MID-
LEVEL TROUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS
LIFTING NE FROM ERN MONTANA INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY
(MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG) AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ALONG ASSOC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. BY COMPARISION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLOUD FREE AND QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME TEMPS HAVE BEEN QUITE
WARM... GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA FROM DIMINISHING
CONVECTION WITH MCS TO WEST COULD SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AS MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING EXPECT DEWPOINTS
TO LOWER INTO MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN A FEW
LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SITES. COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPS AND LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN INLAND MIN RH/S
DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 20S RH/S OVER THE ERN THIRD OF UPPER MI. THIS WILL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN RECENT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. FORTUNATELY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT
SHOULDN/T INCREASE TOO MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 MPH FOR GUSTS). WEST WINDS HOWEVER COULD GET GUSTY IN WAKE
OF FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
FOCUSING ON PCPN CHCS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM PLAINS WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING WITH THE
REGIONAL GEM PERHAPS A BIT QUICKER WITH FRONT INITIALLY THAN
NAM...GFS OR ECMWF MODELS. DESPITE MINOR DIFFERENCES MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REACHING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
EVENING...INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI AROUND 12Z WED AND EXITING ERN UPPER
MI AROUND 18Z WED. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA THAT BEST DYNAMICS
(MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV) ASSOC WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...TIED TO MOVEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID-LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH LIFT NE INTO SRN
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT SAME TIME...MODELS AND SREF
ENSEMBLE FIELDS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF
UPPER MI INTO WI BY TIME FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES
500 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG FAR WEST IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG EAST OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF BEST DYNAMICS MOVING
WELL TO NORTH AND BEST MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH HAS LED MOST OF
MODELS TO DEPICT MORE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG FRONT HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT ONLY HIGH CHC POPS AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS IN FCST
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST SPREADING
ACROSS REST OF FCST TONIGHT.
ALSO DOWNPLAYED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IN HWO GIVEN LATER TIMING OF
FRONT TOWARD LATE EVENING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING.
ALSO BEST DEEP SHEAR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND OUT OF SYNC
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH GUSTY WINDS WED NIGHT
AND THU.
THE OVERALL PATTERN AFFECTING THE AREA WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
REGIONALLY THROUGH THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER FAR NRN
ONTARIO AT 00Z THU WILL MOVE TO HUDSON BAY BY 00Z FRI AND MEANDER
OVER THE BAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE LOW WILL THEN BEHIND THE CYCLE
BACK TO THE W...POSSIBLY BRINGING AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THEREFOR WINDS...WILL BE TIGHTEST OVER
THE AREA WED NIGHT...AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN INTO SAT. WINDS GUSTS
AT 00Z THU WILL RANGE FROM 30-35MPH OVER THE KEWEENAW TO 10-20MPH
N/NE OF LAKE MICHIGAN. A TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT THAT MAY
LOCALLY ENHANCE WINDS OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE STRONGEST AT 00Z THU AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING AFTER
THAT. ANOTHER MOISTURE STARVED TROUGH OR TWO MOVES THROUGH ON
THU...BUT WILL ONLY PROVIDE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
A SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THU NIGHT...WHICH
JUSTIFIES SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS MODELS SHOW LIGHT QPF AMOUNTS OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA.
FRI INTO SAT LOOKS DRY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z/28 GFS DOES BRING A PRECIP
PRODUCING SHORTWAVE INTO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE
FORECAST SINCE THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN WAS DRY AND OTHER MODELS ARE
DRY.
TEMPERATURES THU THROUGH SAT WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S TO LOW 80S AND LOW IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
MODELS SHOW A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE AND WIDESPREAD QPF SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THAT TIME FRAME. COOLER
TEMPS COME IN WITH THAT UPPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR A CHANGE.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THIS EVENING RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT CROSSING W TO E OVER THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...THE TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF RIGHT NOW. LLWS IS A CONCERN THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
CONTINUE AROUND 35KTS. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO MIX BETTER DURING
THE DAY...LIMITING THE NEED FOR LLWS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
AND MIXING DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS
ENCROACHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT WSW GALES UP TO 35 KTS THRU THE DAY ON WED
OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE LAKE GEOGRAPHY TYPICALLY
ENHANCES THIS FLOW. MAINTAINED GOING GALE WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON WED EVENING... WINDS
UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY
SLACKENS. LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE ON FRI
THRU THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DOMINATES THAT PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162-240>247-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...TITUS
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS MARQUETTE MI
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 606 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE NRN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION INTO NRN ONTARIO. WITHIN BASE OF MID-
LEVEL TROUGH A STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW WAS
LIFTING NE FROM ERN MONTANA INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. INSTABILITY
(MUCAPES 1000-2000 J/KG) AND LIFT AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE AND ALONG ASSOC
FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SUPPORTED A LARGE MCS OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
WRN MN EARLY THIS MORNING. BY COMPARISION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION HAS RESULTED IN GENERALLY CLOUD FREE AND QUIET
CONDITIONS OVER UPPER MI...ALTHOUGH NIGHTTIME TEMPS HAVE BEEN QUITE
WARM... GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MODELS INDICATE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHRA FROM DIMINISHING
CONVECTION WITH MCS TO WEST COULD SPREAD INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON. DESPITE POSSIBLE INCREASE IN CLOUDS...EXPECT ENOUGH
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S
AS MOST LOCATIONS AGAIN TODAY. WITH DAYTIME MIXING EXPECT DEWPOINTS
TO LOWER INTO MID TO UPPER 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH EVEN A FEW
LOWER 50S DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SITES. COMBINATION OF HIGH
TEMPS AND LOWERING OF DEWPOINTS WILL RESULT IN INLAND MIN RH/S
DROPPING INTO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL UPPER MI WITH EVEN SOME
MID TO UPPER 20S RH/S OVER THE ERN THIRD OF UPPER MI. THIS WILL
INCREASE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY INTO THIS EVENING GIVEN RECENT
STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. FORTUNATELY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONT
SHOULDN/T INCREASE TOO MUCH THROUGH THIS EVENING (GENERALLY LESS
THAN 20 MPH FOR GUSTS). WEST WINDS HOWEVER COULD GET GUSTY IN WAKE
OF FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.
FOCUSING ON PCPN CHCS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS FRONTAL SYSTEM
FROM PLAINS WORKS ITS WAY ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MODELS SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING WITH THE
REGIONAL GEM PERHAPS A BIT QUICKER WITH FRONT INITIALLY THAN
NAM...GFS OR ECMWF MODELS. DESPITE MINOR DIFFERENCES MODELS
GENERALLY SHOW COLD FRONT REACHING INTO WRN UPPER MI THIS
EVENING...INTO CENTRAL UPPER MI AROUND 12Z WED AND EXITING ERN UPPER
MI AROUND 18Z WED. MODELS CONSISTENT WITH IDEA THAT BEST DYNAMICS
(MID-LVL Q-VECT CONV) ASSOC WITH FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING WEST
AND NORTH OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...TIED TO MOVEMENT OF
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOC MID-LVL CLOSED LOW WHICH LIFT NE INTO SRN
MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO TONIGHT. AT SAME TIME...MODELS AND SREF
ENSEMBLE FIELDS INDICATE BEST MOISTURE/INSTABILITY STAYING SOUTH OF
UPPER MI INTO WI BY TIME FRONT MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MUCAPES
500 TO MAYBE 1000 J/KG FAR WEST IN THE EVENING DECREASING TO ONLY A
FEW HUNDRED J/KG EAST OVERNIGHT. COMBINATION OF BEST DYNAMICS MOVING
WELL TO NORTH AND BEST MOISTURE STAYING SOUTH HAS LED MOST OF
MODELS TO DEPICT MORE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH UPPER MI TONIGHT. GIVEN
THE UNCERTAINTY WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG FRONT HAVE
GENERALLY KEPT ONLY HIGH CHC POPS AND LIMITED LIKELY POPS IN FCST
FOR SCT SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEST SPREADING
ACROSS REST OF FCST TONIGHT.
ALSO DOWNPLAYED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IN HWO GIVEN LATER TIMING OF
FRONT TOWARD LATE EVENING OVERNIGHT AS INSTABILITY WILL BE WANING.
ALSO BEST DEEP SHEAR LOOKS TO LAG BEHIND THE FRONT AND OUT OF SYNC
WITH BETTER INSTABILITY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A 991MB SURFACE LOW WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE
MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER AT 12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT
STRETCHING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND THROUGH
CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN AND SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN WISCONSIN. EXPECT
A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING ALONG AND
TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH INSTABILITY DECREASING THROUGH
THE NIGHT...DON/T EXPECT ANY REALLY STRONG STORMS...ALTHOUGH BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING AND SHOULD LEAVE
THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON (ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT). THAT COLD
FRONT WILL BRING TEMPERATURE/HUMIDITY RELIEF TO THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY...AS MUCH DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR MOVES OVER THE REGION AND
HIGHS ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S WEST AND LOWER 80S EAST. AFTER
CLEARING INITIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST BACK INTO THE AREA FROM LATE MORNING OVER THE WEST TO THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL...TIED TO 850-700MB MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING EAST THROUGH THE
AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD FOR WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF UPPER MICHIGAN AND
LAKE SUPERIOR. MODELS STILL SHOWING A CORE OF 30-45KT 950-900MB
WINDS MOVING OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW (TIGHTEST FROM THE
KEWEENAW PENINSULA AND NORTH). WITH THE WESTERN LAKE WARMING
UP...DON/T THINK THE MARINE LAYER WILL HAVE AS MUCH OF AN AFFECT AS
EARLIER IN THE YEAR AND FEEL PRETTY COMFORTABLE IN HAVING GUSTS TO
35-40KTS OVER LSZ263-264. THUS...WILL ISSUE A GALE WATCH FOR
WEDNESDAY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OVER THE LAND...STILL
EXPECT THE HIGHEST GUSTS TO OCCUR OVER THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA...WITH
AFTERNOON GUSTS OF 30-40MPH AND MAYBE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 45MPH AROUND
THE BROCKWAY MOUNTAIN AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
BUT HAVING LITTLE EFFECT ON THE LOW LEVEL WINDS. THIS WILL LIKELY
KEEP SUSTAINED WINDS UP THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND POSSIBLY KEEP
GALES GOING OVER THE NORTHERN LAKE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...DON/T EXPECT
ANYTHING MORE THAN A FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THAT WILL BE THE STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT (OCCURRING
ABOUT EVERY 8-12HOURS INTO THE WEEKEND). THESE SERIES OF WAVES WILL
OCCUR ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING
NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY. MOST WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED
AND WILL LARGELY SHOW PASSING CLOUDS WITH THEM...AND JUST SOME
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY PERIOD OVER THE
NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY ON THURSDAY...BUT GRADUALLY
DIMINISH HEADING INTO SATURDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AND
IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MODELS STILL INDICATING THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
STRONGER FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION CHANCE POPS DURING THAT PERIOD.
MODELS DIVERGE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK ON THE TIMING OF THE UPPER
LOW SPINNING OVER HUDSON BAY DROPPING SOUTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. WHEN THIS OCCURS...IT WILL MARK A SHIFT TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN RECENTLY ON THE CFS AND LONG RANGE
ECMWF ENSEMBLES.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER THIS EVENING RIGHT AHEAD AND ALONG A
COLD FRONT CROSSING W TO E OVER THE AREA. WHILE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...THE TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IS TOO SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF RIGHT NOW. LLWS IS A CONCERN THIS EVENING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SFC
CONTINUE AROUND 35KTS. EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO MIX BETTER DURING
THE DAY...LIMITING THE NEED FOR LLWS. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT CLEARING
AND MIXING DIRECTLY BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH SOME SCT-BKN VFR CLOUDS
ENCROACHING BY MID AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 159 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND WED
MORNING...THE SHARPENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE UPPER LAKES BETWEEN
HI PRES BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LO PRES MOVING TOWARD
HUDSON BAY WILL SUPPORT WSW GALES UP TO 35 KTS THRU THE DAY ON WED
OVER THE W HALF OF THE LAKE...WHERE THE LAKE GEOGRAPHY TYPICALLY
ENHANCES THIS FLOW. MAINTAINED GOING GALE WATCH FOR THIS AREA.
ALTHOUGH THE GALES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH ON WED EVENING... WINDS
UP TO 25-30 KTS WILL PERSIST THRU THU AS THE PRES GRADIENT SLOWLY
SLACKENS. LIGHTER WINDS UNDER 20 KTS WILL THEN BE THE RULE ON FRI
THRU THE WEEKEND AS A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMER
DOMINATES THAT PERIOD.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR
LSZ162-240>247-263-264.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...VOSS
LONG TERM...SRF
AVIATION...KF
MARINE...KC
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1235 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AT 07Z WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT STARTING ALONG
THE NORTHWEST IOWA BORDER. COLD FRONT LAGGED THE CONVECTION
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA.
MAIN QUESTION FOR NOW IS HOW LONG THIS COMPLEX HOLDS TOGETHER AS
IT MOVES INTO AREA OF WEAKER INSTABILITY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA.
EXPECT SOME CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT TODAY
ALTHOUGH BECOMING MORE ISOLATED THROUGH THE MORNING AS LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY...BEFORE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RAP MOVES FRONT INTO
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AROUND 13Z THEN REACHES FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE CWA BY 23Z. RAIN COULD JUMP PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY BEFORE THE
CHANCE INCREASES AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT EAST AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
HOT AND HUMID TODAY IN SOUTHEAST AREAS WHERE FRONT COMES THROUGH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE A RETURN TO WARMER
TEMPS ON THURSDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO HOLD UPPER HIGH CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS DURING THE PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFERENCE IN
AMPLITUDE OF THE PATTERN. GFS INDICATES MORE AMPLITUDE IN ITS
SOLUTION WITH EURO SHOWING A FLATTER FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN SOMEWHAT COOLER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST CHANCE OF
PRECIP COMES AROUND SUNDAY WHEN NEXT FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA
WITH GFS SHOWING STRONGER COOLING WITH ITS MORE AMPLIFIED FLOW.
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
COLD FRONT IS BRINGING A WIND SHIFT TO THE TAF SITES...AS WELL AS
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS AT KOMA/KLNK THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT IS
THROUGH KOFK...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THAT WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT.
SHOWERS/STORMS SHOULD MOVE/EXPAND INTO THE VICINITY OF KOMA AND
KLNK LATER THIS AFTERNOON. STILL A LITTLE LOW ON CONFIDENCE OF
COVERAGE...BUT TOOK A BEST SHOT OF WHEN SHOWERS/STORMS WOULD
AFFECT EACH SITE. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TURN TO
NORTHWEST AT KOMA/KLNK AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM TAF SITES...LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...MAYES
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
325 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 325 PM EDT TUESDAY...SEASONABLE TEMPS AND WEATHER THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS LARGE-SCALE POLAR UPPER LOW TAKES UP
RESIDENCE OVER HUDSONS BAY LEAVING THE NORTHEAST IN PERSISTENT
BROAD TROUGH WITH THE AXIS MAINLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
WEAK PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MAY BE ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING TO
TRIGGER SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM JUST ABOUT ANY DAY IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST. LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL KEEP ANY RAINFALL GENERALLY BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE
VARIOUS SHORT WAVE FEATURES MAKE PINPOINTING ANY PARTICULAR DAY`S
WEATHER DIFFICULT.
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS
ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD
LOOK TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SLIGHTLY
SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL ALLOW A
WEAK COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE AREA AS A BETTER FOCUS FOR
PRECIPITATION.
850 TEMPS RUNNING 10-14C WITH A TREND TOWARD COOLER BY TUE AS THE
TROF SAGS SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL...MID 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER
60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...SISSON
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
151 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS SO LEFT IT OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST OR VARIABLE
WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO
LIFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK 08-12Z WEDNESDAY. CHANCE MVFR IN MIST
ELSEWHERE. MAINLY VFR AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
WED: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE KSLK/KMPV.
THU: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH PASSAGE OF
COLD FRONT. ISOLD SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE.
FRI: MAINLY VFR. SLGHT CHC PM -SHRA.
SAT: MAINLY VFR. CHANCE PM SHRA/TSRA.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...SISSON
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BURLINGTON VT
1207 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
RIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN FACT...SOME LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SUMMER TODAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH THE HEAT WILL COME HIGHER HUMIDITY AND THE
THREAT FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE THUNDERSTORMS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE MORE NUMEROUS AND ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG OR SEVERE.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1201 PM EDT TUESDAY...FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AREA-WIDE AS OF 12
NOON...WITH SEVERAL MORE HOURS OF WARMING TO GO. WILL SHOW HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S (WARMEST IN THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY
AND LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY). BTV MAY FALL JUST SHORT OF
ITS FIRST 90F READING OF THE SEASON (CURRENT FORECAST OF 89F).
LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWING 50 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR AND 1000 J/KG
OF SBCAPE/500 J/KG MLCAPE...BUT STILL WELL CAPPED. THE CU FIELD IS
NOW FINALLY STARTING TO GET GOING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS THINKING WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS...ANY THREAT IS ISOLATED AT BEST...AND INITIATION
DEPENDENT ON TERRAIN.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 1010 AM TUESDAY...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION
THROUGH TODAY. THIS ALONG WITH GRADUALLY BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL PROVIDE FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. AREAS OF
MORNING FOG HAVE BURNED OFF FOR THE MOST PART...WITH THE ONLY
OTHER CURRENT CLOUD COVER BEING SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS FROM
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OVER CANADA. OTHERWISE...WILL SEE SOME CUMULUS
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S WITH SOME
LOW 90S ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE LARGER VALLEYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE 60S WILL LEAD TO SOME INSTABILITY (MLCAPE AROUND
1000 J/KG OR SO) BY THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE
LIMITED HOWEVER BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A WEAK CAP IN
PLACE...AND LACK OF A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR A TRIGGER. THAT BEING
SAID...A WEAK FEATURE PASSING THROUGH ALOFT AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF THE GREENS/ADIRONDACKS MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH LIFT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION AFTER 16Z. IF A FEW ISOLATED STORMS WERE TO
DEVELOP...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THEM TO BECOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE WITH 0-6KM AVERAGE BULK SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS.
STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY SOUTHEAST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 312 AM EDT TUESDAY...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THIS SHOULD HELP TO CAP THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. BUT WITH PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN...SOMETHING IS GOING TO TRY
AND GET GOING OVER THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE PRETTY LIMITED. ONCE AGAIN LOOKING AT HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOWER 90S. MAIN FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
SHARP COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT DAY WE WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID 80S
TO LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 1500 J/KG RANGE FOR SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THAT ALLOWS CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ONCE THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE TOP OF THE FRONT AND
INSTABILITY TO ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS WHICH
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THIS SCENARIO. THE OTHER ELEMENT TO WATCH IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THREE STRAIGHT DAYS OF 90 DEGREE WEATHER AND THAT WOULD BE
CONSIDERED A HEAT WAVE.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 340 AM EDT TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS REMAIN SOMEWHAT
UNSETTLED FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT A LARGE-SCALE POLAR
TROUGH SETS UP BEHIND IT TAKING RESIDENCE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST STATES FOR DAYS 4 THROUGH 7. WITH THE CENTER OF THE
UPPER LOW WELL TO OUR NORTH, PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA,
SO WITH THE LACK OF ANY STRONG FORCING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
IS RATHER LOW. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY MAY BRING A FEW ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS ON SATURDAY, BUT THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD FROM JAMES BAY TO THE GREAT LAKES
ALLOWING FOR A DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE COOLER THAN
THIS WEEK, BUT VERY SEASONAL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S, AND LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S. SHOULD BE FAIRLY
COMFORTABLE AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOW
60S.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. IFR FOG AT KMPV WILL BURN OFF OVER THE NEXT 2
HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE TRENDING TO SCATTERED CUMULUS BY
MID-DAY. COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON,
BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN REGARDS TO AREAL COVERAGE SO
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW. LIGHT NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KNOTS TODAY GO
CALM AGAIN AFTER 02Z LEADING TO IFR FOG AT KMPV/KSLK AFTER 07Z
WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
12Z WED - 12Z THU: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
12Z THU - 00Z FRI: VFR WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE WITH
SEVERE TURBULENCE/WINDS/HAIL POSSIBLE IN HEAVIER CORES.
00Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR. EARLY MORNING IFR FOG POSSIBLE.
&&
.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...MUCCILLI
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...LAHIFF
AVIATION...LAHIFF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED TSRA MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW AR THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD AFFECT
FSM/FYV/XNA/ROG...BUT LOW ANTICIPATED COVERAGE MAKES THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. A FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...WHICH SHOULD SWITCH WINDS TO
A NORTHERLY DIRECTION AT BVO AND PERHAPS TUL/RVS LATE IN THE
PERIOD.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
..UPDATE...
DISCUSSION...
YET ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON TODAY WITH UPPER RIDGE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. SURFACE
MOISTURE HAS BEEN LOATHE TO COMPLETELY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION THE LAST FEW DAYS...SO HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
JUST A BIT...WHICH OF COURSE LEADS TO A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
THE FORECAST MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES AS WELL. GOING HEAT ADVISORY
WILL BE SUFFICIENT SO NO HEADLINE CHANGES FORTHCOMING.
BOTH THE HRRR AND THE RAP SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS MUCH LIKE THE LAST FEW DAYS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE LOCATION OF
THE UPPER HIGH SHOULD SERVE AS MORE OF AN ADDED DETERRENT TO
DEVELOPMENT...SO COVERAGE SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER THAN YESTERDAY/S
SCANT OFFERINGS...BUT CURRENTLY DO NOT THINK IT WILL SUPPRESS ALL
ACTIVITY. WILL INCLUDE A MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING.
UPDATES ALREADY OUT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR ALL SITES WITH SOME
FAIR WEATHER CU 18-00Z. LEE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN SLIGHTLY STRONGER
LOW LEVEL FLOW THAN PAST FEW DAYS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY...AND
MOST OF TOMORROW. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO RIVAL THOSE OBSERVED YESTERDAY...THEREFORE AREAL
OUTLINE OF HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE LEFT ALONE. MOST OF THE AREA WILL
SEE ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL LET NEXT SHIFT
ASSESS POTENTIAL AREAL OUTLINE ADJUSTMENTS FOR WEDNESDAY. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN SOME LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW PRECIP
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK
BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RIDGE WILL CONTINUE A MODEST
RETROGRADE...HOWEVER UPCOMING RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LIMITED AS
THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOESNT APPEAR TO BE
SIGNIFICANTLY COMPROMISED. SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL WORK INTO
THE AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FA BY LATER IN THE
WEEK...WHICH WILL OFFER AT LEAST SOME AREAS A FEW DAYS OF RELIEF
FROM THE RECENT HEAT. TEMPS LOOK TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES BY LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEAN RIDGE POSITIONING MAY
STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST...THUS KEEPING THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE REGION.
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>068-
070>076.
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-020-029.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
457 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASINGLY RETURN NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR PER RADAR TRENDS...AND LOWERED IN THE SC
INTERSTATES 85 CORRIDOR.
1940 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FAVOR THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 230 PM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE S-SE THIS AFTN...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 12Z
HIGH-RES WINDOWS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRENDS...SO I
THINK THE POP GRIDS ARE ON TRACK...SINCE THEY WERE BLENDED WITH
THOSE CAM POPS EARLIER. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...WHILE THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN GETTING FAIRLY TALL...THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 15 KFT...AND
LOW-MOD DCAPE OF 600-800 J/KG IS KEEPING THE MICROBURST THREAT IN
CHECK. THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AS PWATS ARE 1.8-2.0"
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN GA...AND HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP A LIGHT S/SE FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. THIS
MAY BE ENUF TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
WELL PAST SUNSET. I HAVE POPS ON A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...TO SLGT CHC BY DAYBREAK WED. LOWS IN THE MID-UPR
60S IN THE MTNS AND LWR-MID 70S PIEDMONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
TODAY...WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO NOSE N AND E INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE OP MODELS ALL RESOLVE
ANOTHER VORT MAX DRIFTING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. THE LLVLS WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH ELEVATED DEWPTS IN THE 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. CAPE
SHUD BE BACK ABOVE 1500 J/KG OR SO WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE CAMS
THAT GO OUT THRU TOMORROW SHOW SIMILAR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS TODAY.
SO WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY POPS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOIST MID LVLS. A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. HIGHS AROUND PERSISTENCE IN THE 80S MTNS AND LWR-MID 90S
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A (RATHER WEAK) FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SLIGHT COOLING OF THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPS AND CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
FEW PULSE-SEVERE STORMS WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A DEVELOPING CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
MORNING...TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT. ALTHOUGH
THICKNESS VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN (REALLY
ONLY TAKING MAXES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS)...THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S. THE RESULT WILL
BE SMALL (AT BEST) CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SMALL POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN AREAS
NEARER THE BOUNDARY...EVEN THESE MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWFA
FROM THE NW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY GETTING WEAKER. THE ECMWF STILL TRIES TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE GFS APPEARS LESS BULLISH ON LOW DEVELOPMENT NOW THAN IT HAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW KEEPING THE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWER OVERALL POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SE ZONES. TEMPS WILL
START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING SHRA JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT
TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SO WILL START OUT WITH A VCSH AND TEMPO
FOR TS FROM 18-21Z. FROM THERE...THE HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WELL PAST SUNSET.
FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION BEYOND 23Z.
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SE WIND. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON MVFR
STRATUS POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION SCT015 FOR NOW TO SHOW THE TREND.
ELSEWHERE...THE BLUE RIDGE HAS REALLY LIT UP ON RADAR OVER THE LAST
HOUR...WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH. KGSP AND KGMU LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT HIT BY TSRA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ALL SITES WILL HAVE CONVECTION AROUND...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO FOR THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. AS WITH KCLT ABOVE...GUIDANCE KEEPS
LINGERING CONVECTION BEYOND SUNSET. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHUD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT IMPACTS IS LOW...BUT WILL GO WITH SIMILAR
TIMELINE AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
KAVL AND KHKY MAY SEE VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT KGSP AND
DEVELOP AT KGMU DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE AFTERNOON
APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD YIELD A ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
OR TEMPO IN EACH TAF...GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z TO 24Z. MTN MVFR
CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASINGLY RETURN NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
2100 UTC UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
INTERSTATE 77 CORRIDOR PER RADAR TRENDS...AND LOWERED IN THE SC
INTERSTATES 85 CORRDIOR.
1940 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FAVOR THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 230 PM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE S-SE THIS AFTN...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 12Z
HIGH-RES WINDOWS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRENDS...SO I
THINK THE POP GRIDS ARE ON TRACK...SINCE THEY WERE BLENDED WITH
THOSE CAM POPS EARLIER. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...WHILE THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN GETTING FAIRLY TALL...THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 15 KFT...AND
LOW-MOD DCAPE OF 600-800 J/KG IS KEEPING THE MICROBURST THREAT IN
CHECK. THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AS PWATS ARE 1.8-2.0"
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN GA...AND HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP A LIGHT S/SE FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. THIS
MAY BE ENUF TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
WELL PAST SUNSET. I HAVE POPS ON A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...TO SLGT CHC BY DAYBREAK WED. LOWS IN THE MID-UPR
60S IN THE MTNS AND LWR-MID 70S PIEDMONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
TODAY...WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO NOSE N AND E INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE OP MODELS ALL RESOLVE
ANOTHER VORT MAX DRIFTING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. THE LLVLS WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH ELEVATED DEWPTS IN THE 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. CAPE
SHUD BE BACK ABOVE 1500 J/KG OR SO WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE CAMS
THAT GO OUT THRU TOMORROW SHOW SIMILAR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS TODAY.
SO WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY POPS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOIST MID LVLS. A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. HIGHS AROUND PERSISTENCE IN THE 80S MTNS AND LWR-MID 90S
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A (RATHER WEAK) FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SLIGHT COOLING OF THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPS AND CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
FEW PULSE-SEVERE STORMS WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A DEVELOPING CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
MORNING...TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT. ALTHOUGH
THICKNESS VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN (REALLY
ONLY TAKING MAXES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS)...THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S. THE RESULT WILL
BE SMALL (AT BEST) CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SMALL POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN AREAS
NEARER THE BOUNDARY...EVEN THESE MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWFA
FROM THE NW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY GETTING WEAKER. THE ECMWF STILL TRIES TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE GFS APPEARS LESS BULLISH ON LOW DEVELOPMENT NOW THAN IT HAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW KEEPING THE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWER OVERALL POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SE ZONES. TEMPS WILL
START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING SHRA JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT
TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SO WILL START OUT WITH A VCSH AND TEMPO
FOR TS FROM 18-21Z. FROM THERE...THE HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WELL PAST SUNSET.
FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION BEYOND 23Z.
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SE WIND. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON MVFR
STRATUS POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION SCT015 FOR NOW TO SHOW THE TREND.
ELSEWHERE...THE BLUE RIDGE HAS REALLY LIT UP ON RADAR OVER THE LAST
HOUR...WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH. KGSP AND KGMU LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT HIT BY TSRA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ALL SITES WILL HAVE CONVECTION AROUND...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO FOR THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. AS WITH KCLT ABOVE...GUIDANCE KEEPS
LINGERING CONVECTION BEYOND SUNSET. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHUD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT IMPACTS IS LOW...BUT WILL GO WITH SIMILAR
TIMELINE AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
KAVL AND KHKY MAY SEE VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT KGSP AND
DEVELOP AT KGMU DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE AFTERNOON
APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD YIELD A ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
OR TEMPO IN EACH TAF...GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z TO 24Z. MTN MVFR
CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
21-03Z 03-09Z 09-15Z 15-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 80% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 86% HIGH 95%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
338 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASINGLY RETURN NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1940 UTC UPDATE...POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED TO FAVOR THE
INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR PER RADAR TRENDS. SKY COVER WAS UPDATED FROM
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AS OF 230 PM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE S-SE THIS AFTN...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 12Z
HIGH-RES WINDOWS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRENDS...SO I
THINK THE POP GRIDS ARE ON TRACK...SINCE THEY WERE BLENDED WITH
THOSE CAM POPS EARLIER. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...WHILE THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN GETTING FAIRLY TALL...THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 15 KFT...AND
LOW-MOD DCAPE OF 600-800 J/KG IS KEEPING THE MICROBURST THREAT IN
CHECK. THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AS PWATS ARE 1.8-2.0"
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN GA...AND HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP A LIGHT S/SE FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. THIS
MAY BE ENUF TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
WELL PAST SUNSET. I HAVE POPS ON A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...TO SLGT CHC BY DAYBREAK WED. LOWS IN THE MID-UPR
60S IN THE MTNS AND LWR-MID 70S PIEDMONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
TODAY...WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO NOSE N AND E INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE OP MODELS ALL RESOLVE
ANOTHER VORT MAX DRIFTING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. THE LLVLS WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH ELEVATED DEWPTS IN THE 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. CAPE
SHUD BE BACK ABOVE 1500 J/KG OR SO WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE CAMS
THAT GO OUT THRU TOMORROW SHOW SIMILAR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS TODAY.
SO WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY POPS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOIST MID LVLS. A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. HIGHS AROUND PERSISTENCE IN THE 80S MTNS AND LWR-MID 90S
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A (RATHER WEAK) FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SLIGHT COOLING OF THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPS AND CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
FEW PULSE-SEVERE STORMS WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A DEVELOPING CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
MORNING...TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT. ALTHOUGH
THICKNESS VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN (REALLY
ONLY TAKING MAXES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS)...THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S. THE RESULT WILL
BE SMALL (AT BEST) CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SMALL POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN AREAS
NEARER THE BOUNDARY...EVEN THESE MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWFA
FROM THE NW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY GETTING WEAKER. THE ECMWF STILL TRIES TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE GFS APPEARS LESS BULLISH ON LOW DEVELOPMENT NOW THAN IT HAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW KEEPING THE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWER OVERALL POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SE ZONES. TEMPS WILL
START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING SHRA JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT
TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SO WILL START OUT WITH A VCSH AND TEMPO
FOR TS FROM 18-21Z. FROM THERE...THE HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WELL PAST SUNSET.
FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION BEYOND 23Z.
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SE WIND. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON MVFR
STRATUS POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION SCT015 FOR NOW TO SHOW THE TREND.
ELSEWHERE...THE BLUE RIDGE HAS REALLY LIT UP ON RADAR OVER THE LAST
HOUR...WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH. KGSP AND KGMU LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT HIT BY TSRA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ALL SITES WILL HAVE CONVECTION AROUND...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO FOR THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. AS WITH KCLT ABOVE...GUIDANCE KEEPS
LINGERING CONVECTION BEYOND SUNSET. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHUD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT IMPACTS IS LOW...BUT WILL GO WITH SIMILAR
TIMELINE AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
KAVL AND KHKY MAY SEE VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT KGSP AND
DEVELOP AT KGMU DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE AFTERNOON
APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD YIELD A ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
OR TEMPO IN EACH TAF...GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z TO 24Z. MTN MVFR
CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
19-01Z 01-07Z 07-13Z 13-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 88% HIGH 93%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 96% HIGH 96%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK/JAT
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
243 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SETTLE JUST SOUTH OF THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
MOISTURE SHOULD INCREASINGLY RETURN NORTHWARD OVER THE FRONT THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND DRIFT TOWARD
THE S-SE THIS AFTN...AS SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH. THE LATEST HRRR AND THE 12Z
HIGH-RES WINDOWS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRENDS...SO I
THINK THE POP GRIDS ARE ON TRACK...SINCE THEY WERE BLENDED WITH
THOSE CAM POPS EARLIER. AS FOR SEVERE THREAT...WHILE THE STORMS HAVE
BEEN GETTING FAIRLY TALL...THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 15 KFT...AND
LOW-MOD DCAPE OF 600-800 J/KG IS KEEPING THE MICROBURST THREAT IN
CHECK. THERE IS ALSO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT...AS PWATS ARE 1.8-2.0"
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS.
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRES OVER SOUTHERN GA...AND HIGH PRES TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL KEEP A LIGHT S/SE FLOW ACRS THE CWFA. THIS
MAY BE ENUF TO ALLOW FOR LINGERING SHRA AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSTMS
WELL PAST SUNSET. I HAVE POPS ON A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND FOR THE
TONIGHT PERIOD...TO SLGT CHC BY DAYBREAK WED. LOWS IN THE MID-UPR
60S IN THE MTNS AND LWR-MID 70S PIEDMONT.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH FROM
TODAY...WITH 500 MB HIGH PRES CONTINUING TO NOSE N AND E INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE OP MODELS ALL RESOLVE
ANOTHER VORT MAX DRIFTING SOUTH AROUND THE RIDGE ACRS THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS MAY HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION. THE LLVLS WILL BE
SIMILAR...WITH ELEVATED DEWPTS IN THE 70S ACRS THE PIEDMONT. CAPE
SHUD BE BACK ABOVE 1500 J/KG OR SO WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR. THE CAMS
THAT GO OUT THRU TOMORROW SHOW SIMILAR CONVECTIVE TRENDS AS TODAY.
SO WILL GO WITH HIGH-END CHC TO LIKELY POPS. SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LOW WITH MOIST MID LVLS. A SMALL EXCESSIVE RAIN THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. HIGHS AROUND PERSISTENCE IN THE 80S MTNS AND LWR-MID 90S
PIEDMONT.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 140 PM TUESDAY...RETROGRESSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD...AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES CARVE OUT A LONG WAVE
TROUGH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NORTH AMERICA BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL INTRODUCE A (RATHER WEAK) FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
OUR AREA BY THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...SLIGHT COOLING OF THE MID-LEVEL
TEMPS AND CONTINUED HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH THE
APPEARANCE OF THE BOUNDARY SHOULD SUPPORT CONTINUED GOOD CHANCES OF
CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR A
FEW PULSE-SEVERE STORMS WITHIN A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.
A DEVELOPING CONSENSUS IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY FRI
MORNING...TAKING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT. ALTHOUGH
THICKNESS VALUES WILL NOT SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE COOL DOWN (REALLY
ONLY TAKING MAXES BACK TO NEAR-NORMAL LEVELS)...THERE WILL BE A
NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN RELATIVE HUMIDITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA FRI
AFTERNOON...AS DEWPOINTS COULD MIX OUT INTO THE 50S. THE RESULT WILL
BE SMALL (AT BEST) CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRI AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH
SMALL POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED...MAINLY HIGHLIGHTING SOUTHERN AREAS
NEARER THE BOUNDARY...EVEN THESE MAY PROVE TO BE ON THE HIGH
SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 210 PM TUESDAY...THE MEDIUM RANGE FCST PICKS UP AT 00Z ON
SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER TROF CENTERED OVER ONTARIO AND QUEBEC
AND VERY BROAD UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS
GENERAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER TROF POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE END
OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC...RIDGING WILL SPREAD BACK OVER THE CWFA
FROM THE NW BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...GRADUALLY GETTING WEAKER. THE ECMWF STILL TRIES TO SPIN UP
SOME SORT OF SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
THE GFS APPEARS LESS BULLISH ON LOW DEVELOPMENT NOW THAN IT HAS OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO OF NOTE...THE LONG RANGE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS NOW KEEPING THE PLUME OF DEEPER LYR MOISTURE FARTHER
SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
LOWER OVERALL POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. AS FOR THE SENSIBLE
FCST...WE CAN EXPECT MOSTLY DIURNAL CHANCES FOR SCT CONVECTION EACH
DAY/EVENING WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE SE ZONES. TEMPS WILL
START OUT RIGHT AROUND NORMAL AND REMAIN NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AT KCLT...CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING QUICKLY EARLY THIS AFTN ACRS THE
AREA...WITH SEVERAL SLOW-MOVING SHRA JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL AT
TIME OF 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. SO WILL START OUT WITH A VCSH AND TEMPO
FOR TS FROM 18-21Z. FROM THERE...THE HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION LINGERING AROUND THE AREA WELL PAST SUNSET.
FOR SIMPLICITY...WILL KEEP OUT MENTION BEYOND 23Z.
OTHERWISE...TONIGHT WILL BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT...WITH PLENTY OF
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND LIGHT SE WIND. GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON MVFR
STRATUS POTENTIAL. WILL MENTION SCT015 FOR NOW TO SHOW THE TREND.
ELSEWHERE...THE BLUE RIDGE HAS REALLY LIT UP ON RADAR OVER THE LAST
HOUR...WITH CONVECTION DRIFTING TO THE SOUTH. KGSP AND KGMU LOOK TO
HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF DIRECT HIT BY TSRA IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
ALL SITES WILL HAVE CONVECTION AROUND...SO WILL GO WITH VCTS AND
TEMPO FOR THE 18-21Z TIME FRAME. AS WITH KCLT ABOVE...GUIDANCE KEEPS
LINGERING CONVECTION BEYOND SUNSET. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHUD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THRU THE NIGHT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SO POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG AND MVFR OR LOWER STRATUS.
CONFIDENCE ON EXACT IMPACTS IS LOW...BUT WILL GO WITH SIMILAR
TIMELINE AS WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
KAVL AND KHKY MAY SEE VLIFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MID MORNING. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER AT KGSP AND
DEVELOP AT KGMU DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS. THE AFTERNOON
APPROACH OF A WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHOULD YIELD A ROUND OF
SHRA/TSRA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL INCLUDE A PROB30
OR TEMPO IN EACH TAF...GENERALLY BETWEEN 20Z TO 24Z. MTN MVFR
CEILINGS MAY REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS THAT SEE
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK.
CONFIDENCE TABLE...
18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 91% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 90% HIGH 87%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94% HIGH 94%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...ARK
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...ARK
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS SIOUX FALLS SD
1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
UNSEASONABLY STRONG WAVE MOVING ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG WARM LAYER ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS
THE CWA. MCS WITH ORIGINS IN WESTERN HIGH PLAINS CONTINUES TO WORK
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...FEATURING MAINLY SUB
SEVERE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO THIS POINT. SUSTAINING UPPER
FORCING IS LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA... AND SQUALL LINE
PUSHING TOWARD A BIT MORE STABLE CONDITIONS OVERALL. SEE NO REASON
THAT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL NOT CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN IN A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING STATE AS IT PUSHES EAST AT 40 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR
BREAKDOWN TO A FEW VORTICES...BUT HAVE BEEN UNABLE TO ESTABLISH
PERSISTENT ENOUGH UPDRAFTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE TO THIS POINT...
AND PROSPECT FOR KEEPING FOCUSED UPDRAFTS WILL NOT GET ANY BETTER
WITH THE STATE OF THE AIRMASS. BOUNDARY WILL START TO LAY OUT A BIT
MORE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CWA WITH TIME EARLY MORNING...AND HAVE
LINGERED SOME CHANCE LEVEL POPS INTO MID TO LATE MORNING ALONG THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SHARPER DRYING BACK
WEST OF THE CWA AT 09Z...AND THIS MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY WILL
PROVIDE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. HOWEVER...WARM TEMPS ALOFT AND MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS BY
SQUALL LINE WILL PROVE DIFFICULT TO DESTABILIZATION. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED JUST A TOUCH SLOWER THAN EARLIER RUN...
QUESTION WHETHER WILL BE ABLE TO REACH A RENEWED CONVECTIVE POINT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT WORKS TO CLEAR THE CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ENOUGH OF A CAP INDICATED ON FAIRLY WARM RAP TO REALLY LIMIT ANY POP
MENTION TO LOWER CHANCE...AND SHOULD BE LARGELY CLEAR OF THE FAR
SOUTHEAST CWA BY 00-01Z. ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WOULD HAVE A
CONDITIONAL SEVERE HAIL OR WIND THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CWA
AFTER 19-20Z.
LIKELY GOING TO BE BIT SLOWER RELAXING HUMIDITY IN THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN AREAS WITH BOUNDARY STILL WELL BACK IN NW IA AND SW MN BY
18Z...BUT EVENTUAL PASSAGE OF FRONT WILL BRING NOTICEABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS. STRONGER PUSH OF COOLING ALOFT WILL SETTLE IN TONIGHT AS
UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH WESTERN WINDS DECOUPLING
SOME ACROSS THE SOUTH COMPARED TO NORTH.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BOTH LOOKING DRY AND WARM. WEDNESDAY ALSO
LOOKING A BIT WINDY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WHERE A FEW
GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. BY THURSDAY THE GRADIENT WILL
WEAKEN BUT THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS LOOKS A BIT WARMER. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AND THURSDAY THE MID 80S TO LOWER
90S.
IN THE OUTER PERIODS(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWS
MAINLY IN THE 60S. SATURDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE DAY WHEN IT COULD
GET HOTTEST SO WILL KEEP SOME 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HUMIDITY WILL
ALSO BE PRETTY NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MAYBE JUST A TOUCH
BELOW NORMAL...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SMALL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY BUT AT THIS TIME
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD ANYTHING OTHER THAN THAT.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
AREAS OF CEILINGS 1-3K FEET FROM BKX/FSD/SUX AND EAST WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR FROM THE WEST 18Z-23Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA IN
NORTHWEST IA EAST OF KSUX WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY 29/00Z.
OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 29/18Z. A FEW SURFACE GUSTS FROM THE WEST OR
NORTHWEST MAY APPROACH 25 KNOTS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH 29/00Z.
&&
.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS NASHVILLE TN
509 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SUITE OF FORECAST PRODUCTS TO ADD A LATE AFTERNOON
ZONE GROUPING TO THE ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT TO EMPHASIZE SCT SHWR/TSTM
CONVECTION ACROSS MID STATE. ALSO ADJUSTED HRLY TEMP...DEWPOINT...
WIND DIRECTION/SPEED...AND SKY CONDITION GRIDS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LATEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 76 94 75 90 / 40 30 40 30
CLARKSVILLE 75 94 72 87 / 30 30 40 10
CROSSVILLE 71 87 72 84 / 40 30 40 50
COLUMBIA 75 93 74 91 / 30 30 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 75 90 73 90 / 30 30 40 50
WAVERLY 75 95 73 88 / 30 30 40 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.
&&
$$
31
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS NASHVILLE TN
236 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE HAS A STRONGHOLD ON MUCH OF THE AREA WITH HIGH HEAT
INDICIES PROMPTING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR A GOOD PART OF THE MID
STATE UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS FIRED IN THE
AFTERNOON HEAT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU
WITH MORE CONVECTION DROPPING SOUTH BOUND FROM KENTUCKY. LOOKS
LIKE A VORTICITY MAX (SHORT WAVE) WORKING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF
UPPER RIDGE. VORT MAX CURRENTLY SHOWING UP IN LASTEST RUC13 RUN
NOSING JUST SOUTH OF OHIO RIVER SOUTH OF LOUISVILLE...HEADED THIS
WAY. SHORT WAVE SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THAT WILL WORK DOWN INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. MODELS KEEP SOME CONVECTION
AROUND AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WESTERN AREAS OF THE MID STATE FAVORED.
ANOTHER HOT DAY WEDNESDAY WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF RAIN AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAMP
UP WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS FRONT WORKS INTO THE MID
STATE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE SOUTHEAST HALF ON
THURSDAY BUT DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS KEPT TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL AND HEAT INDICIES
AROUND TRIPLE DIGITS WILL FINALLY RETROGRADE ALLOWING UPPER TROUGH
TO DOMINATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 76 94 75 90 / 40 30 40 30
CLARKSVILLE 75 94 72 87 / 30 30 40 10
CROSSVILLE 71 87 72 84 / 40 30 40 50
COLUMBIA 75 93 74 91 / 20 30 40 40
LAWRENCEBURG 75 90 73 90 / 30 30 40 50
WAVERLY 75 95 73 88 / 30 30 40 10
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TNZ005>008-023>028-
056>062-075-093>095.
&&
$$
BOYD
01
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS BLACKSBURG VA
305 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS...
A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER STRONGER COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE SECONDARY FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE REGION FRIDAY. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR SHOULD FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 205 PM EDT TUESDAY...
CLUSTERS OF DEEPER CONVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE SE ALONG AN AXIS
OF HIGHER SURFACE BASED THETA-E/INSTABILITY AND OVER THE NW IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE RESIDUAL FRONT AND A WEAK WAVE ALOFT. MODELS
AGAIN STRUGGLING WITH WHERE TO PAINT THE BEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
INTO TONIGHT GIVEN WEAK FEATURES AND DIURNAL NATURE OF MORE
OUTFLOW DRIVEN STORMS. HOWEVER SOME CONSENSUS OFF THE HRRR AND
ENSEMBLES AS WELL AS THE GFS TO HAVE BEST HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING
SHRA/TSRA OVER THE EAST AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE TO THE NW DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION GIVEN LINGERING INSTABILITY WELL INTO THE
EVENING. THIS AREA THOUGH MAY BE TOO WORKED OVER BY THEN SO WILL
TREND WITH HIGHER POPS THERE AFTER SUNSET BUT MAINLY OF THE HIGH
CHANCE VARIETY AS ADDED PRECIP AFTER DARK MAY BE VOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION. OTRW KEEPING THE SCATTERED NATURE REGIME GOING THROUGH
ABOUT MIDNIGHT WEST...AND PERIODS OF LIKELYS OR HIGHER OUT EAST A
WHILE LONGER BEFORE CUTTING TO PC/FOG LATE. AGAIN QUITE WARM/MUGGY
WITH MANY EASTERN LOCATIONS STAY ABOVE 70 UNLESS SPOTS SEE A COOLING
SHOWER INTO THIS EVENING.
5H HEIGHTS WILL BUILD A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS THE AREA REMAINS IN A
MOISTURE LADEN ENVIRONMENT UNDER WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUT WITH
LESS FOCUS GIVEN THE WASHING OUT OF THE NEARBY FRONT. GUIDANCE SHOWS
SOME CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE RIDGES DURING THE AFTERNOON ESPCLY AS THE
FLOW TURNS MORE SW ALOFT WHICH SHOULD HELP FOCUS ADDED CONVECTION ALONG
THE RIDGES. HOWEVER WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WELL TO THE
NW WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT...APPEARS LIFT WILL BE LESS BUT LIKELY
ENOUGH GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SCATTERED COVERAGE
MOUNTAINS AND A BIT LESS IN THE EAST. STEERING REMAINS ON THE
WEAK SIDE SO MAIN THREAT AGAIN WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH TEMPS IN
LINE WITH THE LATEST MAV/MOS MIX SO ONLY MADE SMALL TWEAKS TO BUMP
UP VALUES A LITTLE IN THE EAST WHERE SOME LOW 90S POSSIBLE. OTRW
MUGGY 80S IN STORE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH WEDNESDAY EVENING
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS TO LOWER 70S IN
THE PIEDMONT.
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. AS HIGHLIGHTED IN SPC MARGINAL RISK...SOME STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FOR PULSE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DOWNBURST/LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD REDUCE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL
VARY FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 90S IN
THE PIEDMONT. PLACED THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE
MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
WILL RESULT IN STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE EAST
COAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE STALLING
IN SOUTHEAST LATE FRIDAY. COOLER HIGHS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH READINGS
FROM THE MID 70S IN THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 80S IN THE
PIEDMONT. LOWS TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL VARY FROM THE UPPER
50S IN THE WEST TO THE MID 60S IN THE EAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT TUESDAY...
A GOOD WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH DRY SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITY LEVELS...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILD EAST OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THERE ARE SEVERAL OTHER KEY PLAYERS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST
ESPECIALLY THE DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH AND PSEUDO-TROPICAL LOW. A
BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
SHOULD DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES....THEN FLATTEN OUT
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD WILL BE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH DEVELOPS ACROSS FLORIDA OR IN THE GULF AND THE
INTERACTION WITH STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
WITH RESPECT TO THE PSEUDO-TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST STATES...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST ROBUST COMPARED
TO OTHER SOLUTIONS IN DEVELOPING A CLOSED SFC LOW...AND THEN
TRACKING IT NORTHEAST ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
QUESTIONS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON WHETHER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EARLY NEXT WEEK COULD PULL THE SOUTHEAST LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ITS
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OR BLOCK IT
EAST OF THE AREA. IN ANY CASE...THE CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LOCATIONS WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1235 PM EDT TUESDAY...
OVERALL SHOTGUN PATTERN TO DEVELOPING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON BEFORE PERHAPS SHRA/TSRA ORGANIZES A BIT
MORE AND HEADS EAST OFF THE BLUE RIDGE. HOWEVER STILL TOO IFFY TO
INCLUDE PREVAILING CONVECTION AT ANY ONE TAF SITE PENDING RELEASE
SO KEEPING MOSTLY VCTS GOING AT MOST LOCATIONS INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. COULD BE ENOUGH COVERAGE THIS EVENING FOR MORE OF A
PREVAILING MVFR GROUP IN SHOWERS OUT EAST BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. OTRW
EXPECT MOST SITES TO FINALLY IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR IF A
HEAVIER SLOW MOVING SHRA/TSRA MOVES OVER OR NEAR A TAF LOCATION
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS MAY LINGER WELL PAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ESPCLY IN THE EAST
WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSING. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND TOWARD MORE
FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL OCCURRED LATE. THIS
SUPPORTS IFR/LIFR IN THE VALLEY SPOTS SUCH AS KLWB/KBCB AND
OVERALL MVFR ELSW WITH EVEN SOME FOG POSSIBLE AT KROA IF THEY SEE
AFTERNOON/EVENING RAINFALL.
WEDNESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF MVFR TO IFR VALLEY FOG IN THE
MORNING AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER COVERAGE MAY BE LESS AND MORE
OROGRAPHIC/OUTFLOW DRIVEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AGAIN LOCAL
SUB-VFR IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THROUGH REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS
FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&
.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JH/RAB
NEAR TERM...JH
SHORT TERM...KK
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...AMS/JH/MBS/RAB
AN ILLUSTRATED VERSION OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION CAN BE SEEN AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/SEATTLE/GAFD/LATEST_WEBAFD.HTML
[top]
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
224 PM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS....
Summer conditions return to the Inland Northwest as a ridge of
high pressure takes control. Dry and increasingly hot weather
pattern will persist through the weekend across the Inland
Northwest. The only chance of precipitation in the near future
will be a small chance of showers or thunderstorms over extreme
southeast Washington and north-central Idaho during the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Wednesday...Not much going on during this period
as upper level jet...currently extending from the dateline into
northeast BC...buckles a little northward during the next 24-36
hours. What will this do to the weather? The main impacts will be
drying and warming trend. It will also stabilize the atmosphere so
the widespread but shallow cumulus clouds seen this afternoon on
visible satellite will begin to wane this evening and should be
far less prevalent by Wednesday afternoon. The increased sunshine
combined warming temperatures aloft should translate to high
temperatures poking back into the mid 80s and 90s for most
locations. fx
Wednesday night through Tuesday...The Inland Northwest is headed for
an extended period of hot and dry weather as a ridge of high
pressure takes up residence over the region. Temperatures will be on
an upward trend with most valley locations in the 90s to low triple
digits through at least the weekend. The only sensible weather of
note will be breezy winds down the Cascade gap valleys that will
initiate after sunset each day. Whether these winds will be strong
enough to reach critical fire weather conditions when combined with
very low minimum relative humidity is a low confidence forecast. The
other concern will be the possibility of isolated thunderstorms
developing over the northeast Blue Mts and Camas Prairie as
monsoonal moisture drifts up from the south. Right now it looks like
convection will remain south of the forecast area. A nominal area of
slight chance thunderstorms remains in the weather grids to cover
this possibility. /Kelch
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Building ridge will deliver VFR conditions and generally
clear skies to all forecast sites through late Wednesday morning.
Winds will be generally light and terrain driven. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 56 87 62 94 64 97 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 54 87 58 92 58 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 49 87 55 94 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 58 95 65 102 68 104 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 52 90 55 95 57 99 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 47 84 51 89 51 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 49 85 55 91 56 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 58 95 61 100 63 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 62 96 68 100 69 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 54 94 60 98 61 101 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1051 AM PDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SYNOPSIS....
With the exit of the storm system that brought scattered showers
and thunderstorms to the area last evening a return to summer
conditions will commence today. A dry and increasingly hot weather
pattern will persist through next weekend across the inland
northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Rest of today...Strong upper level low currently over southern
Saskatchewan will continue to eject eastward through the day.
Zonal or westerly flow will replace its presence over the region
today. This will equate to dry and warming weather for most
locations. The latest water vapor loops show a weak n-s oriented
deformation band extending from SE BC through NE Oregon. We don`t
expect to see much weather from this other than some variable high
clouds as it passes eastward through the region. With upper level
temperatures warming significantly today, we don`t expect to see
much chance of deep convection...however the HRRR continues to
paint a few sprinkles near the Canadian border by mid-afternoon.
Model soundings in that area really don`t support that notion
however the dewpoints across far northern Washington and north
Idaho are running more moist than the models suggest so we will
leave the threat in the forecast for the mid/late afternoon hours.
fx
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: Building ridge will deliver VFR conditions and generally
clear skies to all forecast sites through late Wednesday morning.
Winds will be generally light and terrain driven. fx
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 79 56 87 62 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Coeur d`Alene 78 52 87 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pullman 77 53 87 54 93 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Lewiston 84 56 95 64 101 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Colville 81 52 90 53 95 56 / 10 0 0 0 0 0
Sandpoint 76 49 84 49 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Kellogg 76 49 85 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Moses Lake 85 56 94 60 99 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Wenatchee 85 56 95 66 99 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
Omak 85 52 94 58 98 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&
$$
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS LA CROSSE WI
331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN IOWA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. LATEST MOSAIC RADAR
INDICATING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TONIGHT ARE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION/CLOUDS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA MUCH OF TODAY...THIS HAS ALLOWED THE ATMOSPHERE TO
BE CAPPED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS EVIDENT WITH THE LATEST
28.18Z RAP BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATING A STRONG INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST 28.17Z
HRRR/HOPWRF SHOW VERY LITTLE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...DUE TO LACK OF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT...AND HINT AT
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAINLY EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE HRRR/HOPWRF
INDICATE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL IOWA...WHERE BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND LIFT IS ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNINGS MCS. DUE TO THE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY/FORECAST AREA CAPPED AND LACK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ALONG FRONT...HAVE REDUCED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. PLUS...WITH THE BETTER
LIFT/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OR SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE 28.12Z GFS/NAM BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AREA WILL
MIX UP TO AROUND 800MB AND WINDS AT THIS LEVEL INCREASE TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OPEN AREAS WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
WITH SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH HIGH AND MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND SOUTHERN CANADA...FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ARE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 28.12Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN
DECENT AGREEMENT IN DIGGING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...THEN DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. WHERE THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM ARE STRONGER
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THAN THE
ECMWF. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF INDICATE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THE 28.12Z GFS/GEM/ECMWF SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TO WARRANT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
VSBYS IMPROVING/GOOD AT BOTH TAF SITES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE
FIRST BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WEAKENS/EXITS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OUTFLOW BEHIND THE DISSIPATING BAND OF SHRA/TSRA PRODUCING SOME MVFR
STRATO-CU ACROSS THE AREA THRU THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH
DIURNAL WARMING/MIXING THIS SHOULD MIX/LIFT TO A SCT VFR DECK BY MID
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRISK SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS. CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE CHANCES OF MORE SHRA/TSRA AT THE TAF
SITES THIS EVENING. TIMING OF 01-04Z AT KRST AND 03-06Z AT KLSE
APPEARS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...LOOKING LIKE THIS MAY COME ACROSS THE
AREA AS MORE OF A LINE OF SCT SHRA/TSRA AND LEFT MENTION OF IT AS
VCTS/CB IN BOTH TAFS. DRIER PUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY GOOD VFR EXPECTED ONCE ANY
SHRA/TSRA IN THE LINE/NEAR THE FRONT WOULD EXIT THE AREA.
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA WED. WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING MIXING TO 800MB WED AFTERNOON...BRISK/GUSTY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20KT G25-30KTS EXPECTED BY LATE WED MORNING AND
FOR WED AFTERNOON.
&&
.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...DTJ
LONG TERM...DTJ
AVIATION.....RRS
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR ROUTINE AFTERNOON FORECAST ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
SHOWERS AND STORMS RAPIDLY DISSIPATED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THEY
MOVED EAST INTO CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATIONS ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS VERY LOW AS BEST 0-6KM SHEAR
LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR FOR
WET MICROBURSTS...THUS WILL MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FORMAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO
REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH OR WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.
KIND OF AN UNUSUAL EVENT FOR LATE JULY WILL TAKE PLACE ON
WEDNESDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE
EAST TOWARDS HUDSON BAY. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. MIXING
HEIGHTS ON THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATED BETWEEN FIVE AND EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET...WHICH COULD TAP WINDS AS STRONG AS 35 KNOTS. DID
INCREASE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR DEEP MIXING AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. BASED ON TEMPERATURES UPSTREAM...BELIEVE
GUIDANCE IS TOO WARM FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PCPN CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND IS THE MAIN FCST CONCERN.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN A FAST ZONAL WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH A SERIES OF S/W TROFS BRUSHING
NORTHERN WI...AND FRONTAL PASSAGES EVERY COUPLE DAYS.
THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. HAVE ADDED A SMALL POP OVER
NORTHERN WI LATE THU NGT...WHEN THE FRONT AND A S/W TROF MAY
COMBINE TO PRODUCE ISOLD/SCT LIGHT SHOWERS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS.
FCST GETS A BIT MUDDLED OVER THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND...AS MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF HAS
NOT ONLY SLOWED THE FRONT DOWN CONSIDERABLY...BUT IS ALSO SHOWING
A WEAKER FEATURE THAN YESTERDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH
HAS A STRONGER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS ALSO CONCERN ABOUT WHERE THE FRONT
WILL RESIDE AFTER IT MOVES THROUGH...AND WHETHER IT WILL REMAIN
CLOSE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ADDITIONAL PCPN EARLY NEXT WEEK...
ESPECIALLY OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES. WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS HIGHEST POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY PERIOD FOR NOW...
BUT THIS MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE WITH SUBSEQUENT FCSTS.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....ECKBERG
LONG TERM......KIECKBUSCH
AVIATION.......ECKBERG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS GREEN BAY WI
1241 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND WEDNESDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
A SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY
WESTWARD TOWARDS WISCONSIN THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 00Z KGRB RAOB...THESE STORMS WILL BE RUNNING INTO A WALL OF
VERY DRY AIR ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THIS IS CAPTURED RATHER
WELL WITH THE HI-RES MODEL RUNS AS THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
DISSIPATES AS IT TRACKS INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF MODEL AGREEMENT WILL PUSH
BACK AND LOWER POPS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CWA TODAY...LIMITING
POPS TO THE WEST IN CASE SOME OF THE ACTIVITY SPILLS INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES MAKE IT...THERE COULD BE GUSTY
WINDS WITH THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN...WHICH PUTS THE AREA IN THE MARGINAL RISK ACCORDING TO
THE SPC OUTLOOK. GIVEN THE LATER ARRIVAL OF THE ACTIVITY...AND
LACK OF ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA...WILL RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES TOWARDS MOS GUIDANCE VALUES AS HIGHS
GET INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TONIGHT STILL LOOK FAIRLY GOOD...IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY...AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION. DRY AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE...WITH HI-RES MODEL
RUNS INDICATING THE ACTIVITY TONIGHT COULD BE SPOTTY INSTEAD OF A
SOLID LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE AND THE LESS THAN ENCOURAGING HI-RES MODEL RUNS WILL NOT
RAISE POPS BEYOND LIKELY WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE. SOME OF
THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL AS MUCAPES
APPROACH 1000 J/KG...WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.
CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BRINGS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS TO 30 MPH
ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S AS DEW POINTS FALLING INTO THE 50S MAKE CONDITIONS
MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS.
.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL ESSENTIALLY REMAIN IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY
OF HUDSON BAY...WHILE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY TAKES
CONTROL OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES IN A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. EMBEDDED
GENERALLY WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN CONUS
FROM TIME TO TIME WILL OFFER QUICK SHOTS AT SOME RATHER MODEST
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
EVIDENCE IN SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FOR A MORE NOTABLE
COOL DOWN THEREAFTER.
AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS NORTHEAST TOWARD HUDSON BAY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE AND A BRIEF PUSH OF SOMEWHAT COOLER
AND NOTICEABLY DRIER CANADIAN AIR SHOULD MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND SEASONABLY
WARM DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.
FIRST IN SERIES OF WEAK UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES APPROACHES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS BULK OF THE UPPER FORCING WILL PASS NORTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FROPA WILL BE QUITE LIMITED.
THUS SEE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM DRY FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL FOLLOW THE FROPA THUS SATURDAY
SHOULD REMAIN DRY AS PER PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO IMPACT THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND
GFS WERE IN THE BALL PARK ON TIMING OF FROPA IN THE SUNDAY
MORNING TIME PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE STILL APPEARS RATHER
LIMITED...UPPER FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION. BEYOND SUNDAY...ADDITIONAL WEAK DISTURBANCES
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUE THUS WILL NOT DEVIATE FROM MODEL
BLEND WHICH GIVES LOW END POPS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF AUGUST WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING TOWARD BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. &&
.AVIATION...FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOUTH WINDS
GUSTING TO NEAR 20 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE LAKE. COLD FRONT EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO TIME
THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT NEW HRRR MODEL
EVEN A TAD BIT SLOWER. SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL EVENT EXPECTED FOR LATE
JULY. GUSTY WEST WINDS COULD GUST AS HIGH AS 30 TO 35 KNOTS IF
WE CAN MIX TO NEAR 5000 THOUSAND FEET AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS
CANADA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.....KURIMSKI
LONG TERM......ESB
AVIATION.......ECKBERG