Forecast Discussions mentioning any of "HRRR" "RAP" "RR" "RUC13" "RUC" received at GSD on 07/27/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TUCSON AZ

915 PM MST FRI JUL 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAINLY
SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON. PATTERN BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
NEXT WEEK FOR AN UPSWING IN DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

.DISCUSSION...MAIN ACTION THIS EVENING HAS BEEN ACROSS COCHISE
COUNTY WHERE THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN. AS OF 9 PM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN COCHISE AND SOUTHERN
GRAHAM COUNTIES ARE GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST. THE 02Z RUN
OF THE HRRR HAS THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO FAR EASTERN PIMA COUNTY BY
10 PM AND THEN WEAKENING AND THEN INTO EASTERN PINAL COUNTY BY 11
PM. EARLIER THIS EVENING MADE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE EVENING
FORECAST BASED ON ABOVE THINKING WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO
THE TUCSON VALLEY BUT BETTER CHANCE IN THE RINCON/CATALINA MOUNTAINS
THRU MIDNIGHT.

AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE KINDA SIMILAR TO
TODAY WITH LESS ACTIVITY ON SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE W.

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 26/03Z.
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AT 5-8K FT AGL WITH ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
25/09Z...MAINLY E AND NE OF KTUS. OUTSIDE OF STORM INFLUENCE...SFC
WINDS WILL FOLLOW NORMAL DIURNAL TRENDS WITH SPEEDS MAINLY LESS THAN
12 KTS. AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN SATURDAY... COVERAGE OF ISO-SCT
SHRA/TSRA WILL MAINLY BE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF KTUS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLIGHT DRYING TREND THIS WEEKEND WILL LIMIT
PRECIPITATION A BIT...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY OCCURRING
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN LIKELY ESPECIALLY
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH ANOTHER INFLUX OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 20-FT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND LESS THAN 15 MPH...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME AFTERNOON
GUSTINESS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. AREAS IN AND AROUND STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS COULD SEE VARIABLE WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 MPH.

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

!--NOT SENT--!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

818 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MOISTURE WORKING AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL
KEEP SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 70. THIS ACTIVITY SENDING SOME ENHANCED
DRAINAGE/OUTFLOW WINDS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL VALLEYS
WHERE WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING OVER 30 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS. THE
GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS WILL RELAX THIS EVENING...BUT RETURN IN
FORCE BY MIDDAY MONDAY AS A DRY FRONT WORKS SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL COLORADO...DISCUSSED IN
MORE DETAIL BELOW. THE DEEPER MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE SHIFTING
SOUTH AND EAST AS THE DRY FRONT WORKS IN...SENDING THE BEST CHANCE
FOR ANY PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH IT. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH THE FOCUS
OVER AND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FROM CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST
COLORADO...WHERE THE NAM12 AND RAP HOLDING ON TO DEEPER MOISTURE A
BIT LONGER. SFC MOISTURE ALSO DEPARTS WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITIES
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN MANY AREAS. TEMPS WILL
BE UP SLIGHTLY IN MANY AREAS...WITH MOS NUMBERS IN THE BALLPARK.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ENERGETIC NORTHERN ROCKIES LOW WILL BE LIFTING ENE INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA TUESDAY...DRIVING THE ABOVE MENTIONED DRY FRONT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH DRIER WESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP FOR A COUPLE
DAYS. THE RIDGE STARTS REBUILDING TO THE WEST BY LATE IN THE
WEEK WITH HEIGHTS CLIMBING TO OUR WEST. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
MOISTURE TO WORK BACK NORTH...BUT CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL BE TO
OUR WEST AND IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE MOISTURE TO FILL BACK
INTO OUR REGION. THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND RECENTERS OVER WESTERN
COLORADO BY THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL FINALLY ALLOW SOME MOISTURE TO
WORK BACK INTO EASTERN UTAH AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE SLIDES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SENDING THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FETCH BACK IN. TEMPS WILL BE
RUNNING ON THE NEAR NORMAL TO START OFF THE PERIOD...BUT SHOULD
AVERAGE 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME PERIOD WITH THE RIDGE MOVING DIRECTLY OVERHEAD.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 341 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED -SHRA/ISOLATED -TSRA WILL FAVOR AREAS EAST OF A LINE
FROM KCAG- KRIL-KGJT-KCEZ THROUGH 03Z...THEN BECOME ISOLATED AND
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE THROUGH TONIGHT. BRIEF SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
LOCAL GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OF G30-40KTS WITH AREAS OF MODERATE
TURBULENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORMS.
KTEX MAY SEE CIGS DROP BELOW ILS BREAKPOINTS FROM PASSING
-SHRA/-TSRA. ELSEWHERE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP 09Z-15Z
WITH WINDS AT 10000-14000 FT MSL AT INCREASING TO SW 40KTS AFT
12Z. THESE GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z
MONDAY. ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY
NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED AT 8PM....

TIGHTENING SFC GRADIENT AHEAD OF DRY COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
REGION WILL BRING INCREASINGLY GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 30 HOURS. WITH FUELS AT CRITICAL LEVELS BASED ON LATEST
INPUT FROM PARTNERS...EXPECTED HUMIDITY BELOW 15 PERCENT AND WINDS
GUSTING OVER 25 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON...WILL BE UPGRADING THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL
COLORADO...INCLUDING FIRE WEATHER ZONES 200...201...202 AND 203.
THE GUSTY NATURE TO THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET
MONDAY EVENING.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...JOE
FIRE WEATHER...MPM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

446 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ATYPICAL JULY AFTERNOON IN A COUPLE OF WAYS...NO CONVECTIVE STORMS
AS OF 19Z. HRRR AND RAP INDICATE THAT A STORM OR TWO WILL POP OVER
THE SAN JUANS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND PROMPTLY MOVE EAST.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS DOMINATED THIS JULY...SO THE LACK OF
STORMS SEEMS OUT OF PLACE. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE PREVAILS TODAY BUT
HARDLY A SCORCHER. OUTSIDE OF MONUMENT VALLEY...NO TEMP SENSOR
HAVE REACHED 90F BY 1 PM. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS HAS PROVIDED OUR FORECAST
AREA WITH A COMFORTABLE AND QUIET SUMMER DAY.

MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB VORTICITY STREAMS
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD REACHING FURTHER NORTH. THIS PLUME OF
MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY
EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN COLORADO FROM THE
GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY
AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND A 60 KT JET
OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A BURLY PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BEGINNING ON MONDAY AND BRUSH ALONG THE
WY/UT/CO BORDER MONDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WINDS AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH ON MONDAY WILL BE ENHANCED WITH VERY GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE
NORTHERN UT/CO BOUNDARIES THANKS TO THE INCREASE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND A 60 KT JET ALOFT. ASSUMING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES CAN DRY
OUT ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING
FOR DAYS...WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS DO LOOK PROBABLE IN NE UTAH
AND NW COLORADO. MOISTURE ON MONDAY WILL HUG THE SAN JUANS AND
SOUTHERN COLORADO DIVIDE MOUNTAINS SO SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED
TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE NAM IS BRINGING A SOLID ELONGATED VORT MAX TO THE WY/UT/CO
BORDER ON TUESDAY LINED UP WITH THE ULJ WHILE THE GFS AND EC ARE
KEEPING THIS ENERGY A BIT FURTHER NORTH. THIS ENERGY STAYS IN
WYOMING BUT MAY KEEP CONDITIONS BREEZY ALONG THE WY/UT/CO BORDER.
500 MB HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS LATER IN THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN BY THURSDAY AND
THROUGH SATURDAY. 700 MB ISOBARS SHOW CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THAT LEVEL OVER WESTERN KS...WESTERN OK...AND THE PANHANDLE OF TX
WHICH WOULD STREAM MOISTURE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS FROM THE GULF.
SIGNAL LOOKS SLIGHTLY MONSOONAL AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THIS
HIGH PRESSURE PATTERN SETS UP.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 446 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN AT THE MAJORITY OF TAF SITES WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY. ISOLATED
-TSRA/-SHRA ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS THROUGH 03Z
AND HAVE A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF AFFECTING KTEX. MOISTURE AND
SHOWERS/STORMS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH LATE SUNDAY MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON WITH AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 BEING AFFECTED.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONE 200 NOW UNTIL 8PM DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THERE TODAY. WINDS WILL ERODE
THIS EVENING.

ISSUED FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SUNDAY FOR FIRE ZONE 200 WITH 60 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN PLACE AND DRY AIR REMAINING OVER NE
UTAH AND NW COLORADO WHILE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENT
IN THE AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW
ORIGINATING FROM WELL SOUTH OF MOFFAT COUNTY. ALSO ISSUED A WATCH
FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203 AFTER GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCIES ON FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A
TROUGH BRUSHES BY THE WY/UT/CO BORDER. ON MONDAY CERTAIN PARTS OF
THE WATCH AREA MAY POTENTIALLY BE BATTLING WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE
FROM SUNDAYS SHOWERS BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON
QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT PRETTY
QUICKLY. SINCE ITS JUST A WATCH DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH SUCH A DEFINED FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.

UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...MDA
FIRE WEATHER...JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

313 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CORRECTED ERROR IN FIRE WX SECTION

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ISOLATED -TSRA/-SHRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SWRN COLORADO MOUNTAINS
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 20Z-01Z. ANY STORMS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND
MOVE EASTWARD. OTHERWISE NO WEATHER RELATED AVIATION HAZARDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 312 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONE 200 NOW UNTIL 8PM DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THERE TODAY. WINDS WILL ERODE
THIS EVENING.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.

UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

308 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING RESULTING
IN CLOUD COVER INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHWEST COLORADO. SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BEGIN DEVELOPING BY THE LATE MORNING AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AS 500 MB
VORTICITY STREAMS SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS AN AREA FAIRLY
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY BUT THE MOISTURE SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO REACH FURTHER
NORTH. THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND
DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY EVENING AS DRIER AIR PROTRUDES INTO WESTERN
COLORADO FROM THE GREAT BASIN. NORTHWEST COLORADO AND NORTHEAST
UTAH WILL REMAIN DRY AND BREEZY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTH AND
A 60 KT JET OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FOR FIRE ZONE 200 NOW UNTIL 8PM DUE TO
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THERE TODAY. WINDS WILL ERODE
THIS EVENING.

ISSUED AT 304 PM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015
LEVEL JET SUPPORT IN PLACE AND DRY AIR REMAINING OVER NE UTAH AND
NW COLORADO WHILE MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN IS EXPECTED IN WEST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO WITH SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENT IN THE
AFTERNOON. ALREADY GUSTY WINDS MAY BE ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW
ORIGINATING FROM WELL SOUTH OF MOFFAT COUNTY. ALSO ISSUED A WATCH
FOR MONDAY FOR FIRE ZONES 200 201 202 AND 203 AFTER GOOD RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCIES ON FORECAST WINDS AND LOW RH FOR MONDAY AS A
TROUGH BRUSHES BY THE WY/UT/CO BORDER. ON MONDAY CERTAIN PARTS OF THE
WATCH AREA MAY POTENTIALLY BE BATTLING WITH TOO MUCH MOISTURE FROM
SUNDAYS SHOWERS BUT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON QUITE
BREEZY CONDITIONS AND THIS SHOULD DRY CONDITIONS OUT PRETTY
QUICKLY. SINCE ITS JUST A WATCH DECIDED TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF
CAUTION WITH SUCH A DEFINED FEATURE AFFECTING THE AREA.

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200>203.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ200.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR COZ200.

UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...PF/JAM
LONG TERM...JAM
AVIATION...PF
FIRE WEATHER...JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS ISOLATED ACTION
OVER THE ERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS...BUT QUIET ELSEWHERE. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS MOISTURE PLUME CUTS ACROSS THE SW COLORADO CORNER BUT
MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS WEAK. GOES SOUNDER SHOW STABLE LIFTED
INDICES ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPE AND ERN UTAH...SUPPORTING THE
RAP/HRRR MODELS OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH DRIER TODAY AS A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES HELPS
PUSH THE MOISTURE PLUME THAT WAS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST AND WEST-
CENTRAL COLORADO YESTERDAY FURTHER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WITH THE
FLOW SHIFTING TO MORE OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER
(PW) VALUES ARE FORECASTED TO BE LESS THAN 0.5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO MUCH LESS CLOUDS AND STORMS. THE
BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SAN JUANS
AND MAYBE WEST ELKS. OTHERWISE A MUCH DRIER DAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS
MAY OCCUR AT TIMES WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE
UTAH AND NW COLORADO AS THE JET REMAINS OVERHEAD WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL FOR
RED FLAG CRITERIA AND DO NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME BUT SHOULD BE MONITORED.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL BEGIN TO CARVE A
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALLOWING MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO SURGE BACK
NORTHWARD OVER OUR CWA WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED NEAR
THE TEXAS-OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION. PW VALUES INCREASE TO 0.75
INCHES AND GREATER SOUTH OF I-70 ON SUNDAY WITH NEAR AN INCH IN
SPOTS...MAINLY FOCUSED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS AND SOUTHWEST COLORADO.
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH UTAH ON SUNDAY AS EVIDENT IN 5H WIND STREAMLINES AND 1.0 PVU
VORTICITY FIELDS...HELPING TO INCREASE STORM ACTIVITY. LEANED
TOWARDS THE GFS FOR THIS FORECAST AS THIS MODEL INITIALIZED MUCH
BETTER WITH YESTERDAYS PRECIPITATION THAN THE OTHER MODELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE IN THE LONGER TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BASIC
PATTERN STARTS OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AND
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE PACNW AND BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. THE LOW
OVER THE NW MOVES INLAND MONDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHED
EAST. THIS BRINGS A FAIRLY STRONG JET OVER NORTHERN NV AND UT AND
INTO SOUTHERN ID AND WESTERN WY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS OVER NE UT AND THE NW AND WEST-CENTRAL CO MON AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. SURFACE WINDS MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. FORECAST TIME-HEIGHT GRAPHS AND FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW 50-60 KTS OF SW WINDS AT 300 MB. 700 MB WINDS MONDAY
AFTERNOON ARE PREDICTED TO RANGE FROM 15-20 KTS IN THE GFS TO 25
KTS IN THE ECMWF. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR TO REMAIN NW OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MONDAY WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY FROM A FIRE WEATHER
STANDPOINT.

THE NW LOW WILL RIDE QUICKLY EAST ALONG THE CAN/U.S. BORDER AND
THE GRADIENT FLOW SHOULD DECREASE TUE. AS THE LOW REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES WED...THE HIGH SE OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE WEST OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS. BY THU THIS HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER SW UT AND
BUILD A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THIS SHOULD BE A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...PF
SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...PF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL

406 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
19Z WATER VAPOR AND H4 RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
UNDER A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A LARGE REGION
OF UPPER RIDGING REMAINS OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST...STILL SUPPLYING
OUR REGION WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW. WV IMAGERY
SHOWS A LARGE SWATH OF DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CONUS THAT HAS BEEN TRYING TO ADVECT SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. SOME OF
THIS AIR AS ARRIVED AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-10 CORRIDOR...HOWEVER...
WE ARE STILL SEEING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA. IT IS UNLIKELY THAT THIS
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE PUSHED MUCH FURTHER SOUTH FROM WHERE IT IS
LOCATED NOW.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY CAN BE
ANALYZED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...WHERE WINDS
SHIFT FROM A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER MUCH OF THE STATE TO A
NORTHEAST DIRECTION ALONG I-10. LOOKING AT THE WIND AND SURFACE
PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS...ONE CAN IMAGINE A VERY WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA...NEAR
CROSS CITY OR CHIEFLAND. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW THE HEAVY RAIN SEEN
OVER THE TAMPA BAY AREA/SOUTHERN NATURE COAST THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY
HAS SETTLED SOUTH ALONG THE SUNCOAST AND WEAKENED TO AN AREA OF
BROAD LIGHT/MODERATE RAIN. IN THE WAKE OF THIS EARLIER
CONVECTION...WAS ABLE TO GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS AND DECENT
INSOLATION TO THE NORTH OF I-4...AND NOW BEGINNING TO SEE MORE SCT
DIURNAL TYPE CONVECTION DEVELOPING. THIS IS NOT THE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL SEEN IN THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL
DOWNPOURS WILL BE FALLING OVER SATURATED SOILS. FOR THIS REASON
WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN NATURE COAST
ZONES INTO THE EVENING...AND SEE HOW THESE SCT STORM EVOLVE. THE
FLOOD WATCH FROM PASCO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST WILL CERTAINLY
NEED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WE CONTINUE TO GET
REPORTS OF STREET AND LOW LYING FLOODING IN FROM THESE AREAS...
EVEN THROUGH THE HEAVIER RAINFALL HAS TEMPORARILY ENDED. THERE
ARE GOOD INDICATIONS ALSO...THAT ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST TO THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY
OVERNIGHT. MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL BELOW.

.SHORT TERM...
WET TIMES CONTINUE ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. AS
WE HEAD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT
THAT A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL
SETTLE SOUTHWARD TO NEAR THE TAMPA BAY AREA...AND THEN STALL INTO
THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

SCT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NATURE COAST
ZONES THROUGH EARLY EVENING...AND THEN DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET. THE NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THESE NORTHERN
ZONES AROUND THE WEAK LOW CENTER SHOULD SUPPORT A MAINLY DRY
FORECAST NORTH OF I-4 THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT. A
FEW WIDELY SCT SHOWERS CAN NEVER BE RULED OUT WITH THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/SOIL MOISTURE AND GENERAL ATMOSPHERIC
SPIN...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONS TO THE ALREADY ACCUMULATED
RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED. THE FURTHER SOUTH FROM THE I-4 CORRIDOR
ONE TRAVELS TONIGHT...THE TRICKIER THE FORECAST GETS IN TERMS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO
THE SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...AND THE SURFACE FRONT LYING ACROSS THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF SETS UP A DECENT LOW LEVEL ZONE OF
FOCUS/CONVERGENCE OVER OUR SOUTHERN MARINE ZONES/SUNCOAST ZONES.
GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVE BAND TO ORGANIZE
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ASHORE INTO THE SUNCOAST...ALTHOUGH JUST HOW
FAR SOUTH IS A BIT IN QUESTION. RIGHT NOW...WOULD BE ADVISABLE TO
PLAN FOR HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL ANYWHERE FROM MANATEE COUNTY
SOUTHWARD TO LEE COUNTY...ALTHOUGH THE BEST PROBABILITY OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WOULD LIKELY BE FROM CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTY
DOWN ACROSS CHARLOTTE/LEE...AND MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE NAM IS BY FAR THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH ITS
CONVERGENT BAND AND HAVE LEANED AWAY FROM THIS SOLUTION IN SUPPORT
OF SOMETHING CLOSER TO A SREF MEAN/ECMWF BLEND FOR THE HIGHEST
POPS AND HEAVIEST QPF TOTALS. ANYWHERE THIS BAND DOES DEVELOP
COULD EASILY SEE AN ADDITIONAL SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL...
HOWEVER AREAL TOTALS WOULD MORE LIKELY BE IN THE 1-2" RANGE ALONG
THE SUNCOAST.

THE HEAVIEST AND MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL SUNDAY MORNING IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER
WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SCT TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE REMAINING ZONES. RAINFALL TENDS TO PROMOTE
RAINFALL...AND ADDING SATURATED SOILS AND DIURNAL HEATING
TOGETHER SHOULD PROMOTE PLENTY OF DEVELOPING SHOWERS THE SECOND
HALF OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY NOT EXPECTING THE TYPES OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY AROUND THE TAMPA BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST THAT
HAVE BEEN SEEN RECENTLY...HOWEVER...WITH SOILS SATURATED OR NEARLY
SATURATED...EVEN LESS WIDESPREAD DOWNPOURS WILL LIKELY STILL CAUSE
FLOODING AGGRAVATION. BASED ON THE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL SEEN
RECENTLY AROUND TAMPA BAY AND PASCO COUNTY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
MORE ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY...WILL LEAVE THE ONGOING FLOOD WATCH FROM PASCO TO LEE
COUNTY IN EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...

BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND...THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT...AS IT SLIPS INTO
SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. THE
SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN HELPING TO PRODUCE THE HEAVY RAIN
DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE WEAKER BY MONDAY...AND WILL
VERY SLOWLY SLIP SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE
IT SLOWLY BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL KEEP WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH LIGHTER NORTHEAST FLOW
OVER THE NORTHERN REGIONS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
STAY AROUND 2-2.25 INCHES...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH KEEPING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS...ALTHOUGH THE SETUP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY TO PRODUCE THE
KIND OF FLOODING OCCURRING THIS WEEKEND. ALL TOLD...EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES GENERALLY FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTH. ON FRIDAY...THE
SURFACE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL SETUP OVER THE BAHAMAS AND
INTO SOUTHERN FLORIDA...WITH ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH PUSHING INTO
NORTH FLORIDA. AS A RESULT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN...WITH
EARLY MORNING SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...MOVING INTO THE COAST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.&&

.AVIATION...
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED FOR THE TIME BEING AND GENERALLY
LOOKING AT VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TAF SITE FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VIS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...BUT OTHERWISE JUST
EXPECTING LIGHTER RAINS FROM KPGD/KFMY/KRSW. LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
DEVELOPS...ESPECIALLY FROM KSRQ SOUTHWARD.

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTLINE EXTENDS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE ATTENDANT SURFACE BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH
HELPING TO MAINTAIN A VERY MOIST WESTERLY FLOW. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

.FIRE WEATHER...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WELL ABOVE CRITICAL
LEVELS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE SOUTH OF
THE I-4 CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH WETTING RAIN IS LIKELY OVER MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

FOG POTENTIAL...
NO SIGNIFICANT FOG OR VISIBILITY ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MONDAY.

HYDROLOGY...A FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PASCO...NORTHERN
HILLSBOROUGH AND PINELLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 2145Z. A FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES TODAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA UNTIL 26/00Z. AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD... WE
WILL ALLOW THE FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE NORTH OF HERNANDO COUNTY AND
WILL KEEP THE WATCH VALID FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM PASCO COUNTY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH LEE COUNTY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AT 26/18Z.

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY SOUTH OF
TAMPA BAY WITH PCPW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2.00 INCHES...WITH TBW
REPORTING 2.13 INCHES ON THE 25/12Z SOUNDING. THE SURFACE TROUGH
WILL STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS WILL PUSH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...GENERALLY ALONG THE COAST FROM PASCO COUNTY SOUTH TO LEE
COUNTY WITH THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING MAY LEAD TO INCREASED CONVECTIVE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE NATURE COAST AND PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS OVER SOUTHWEST PASCO COUNTY AND
HAS CAUSED THE ANCLOTE RIVER AT ELFERS TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.
THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO CREST JUST BELOW 22 FEET EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THEN BEGIN RECEDING AND EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FLOOD
STAGE BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHIFT SOUTH...THE
MYAKKA RIVER AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK AND LITTLE MANATEE RIVER AT
WIMAUMA IS EXPECTED TO GO ABOVE ACTION STAGE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
THESE RIVERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RISE ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT THIS TIME
BUT WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINS CAUSING
ANY FURTHER RISE IN THE WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 87 78 88 / 50 70 40 60
FMY 76 86 77 89 / 90 90 50 60
GIF 75 88 75 89 / 40 70 30 60
SRQ 76 86 78 88 / 60 70 60 70
BKV 74 89 75 89 / 40 70 30 60
SPG 77 87 78 88 / 50 70 50 70

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL CITRUS-
COASTAL HERNANDO-COASTAL LEVY-INLAND CITRUS-INLAND
HERNANDO-INLAND LEVY.

HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
COASTAL CHARLOTTE-COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-
COASTAL MANATEE-COASTAL SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL CHARLOTTE-
COASTAL HILLSBOROUGH-COASTAL LEE-COASTAL MANATEE-
COASTAL PASCO-COASTAL SARASOTA-INLAND CHARLOTTE-
INLAND HILLSBOROUGH-INLAND LEE-INLAND MANATEE-INLAND
PASCO-INLAND SARASOTA-PINELLAS.

GULF WATERS...NONE.

SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...14/MROCZKA
LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...FLEMING
HYDROLOGY...WYNN
MARINE...GARCIA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

247 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...PASSING COASTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT...

TODAY THROUGH SUN...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS EDGING SOUTH ACROSS
NE FL TRAILED BY NUMEROUS TINY SHOWERS BLOSSOMING ACROSS SE GA AND
NE FL...WITH THE ONLY TSTORM ACTIVITY THIS HOUR STILL WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE FL ATLANTIC COAST CLOSE TO A BROAD SURFACE LOW. BOTH THE NAM12
AND HRRR GUIDANCE HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH TODAYS PRECIP EVOLUTION
AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE EDGING SOUTHWARD
DOWN THE SE GA COAST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON NUMEROUS
SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH WSW ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED TSTORM
ACTIVITY INLAND AND OFFSHORE AS DRY AIR ALOFT WILL LIMIT DEPTH OF CONVECTION.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WET DOWNBURSTS...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF HEAVY RAINFALL GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A LAKE CITY TO
OCALA LINE WHERE BEST FOCUS OF LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES WILL CONVERGE. BREEZY ENE WINDS GUSTING NEAR 25 MPH AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING...WITH COASTAL
SHOWERS RESURRECTING AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE FL ATLANTIC COAST.
COULD SEE SOME TRAINING CELLS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL WHERE CONVERGENT BAND COULD
ESTABLISH THUS ADVERTISED 20-30% CHANCES AT THIS TIME. SUN MORNING
PRECIP WILL DRIFT INLAND WITH AGAIN A LOW CHANCE OF ISOLATED
TSTORMS BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS INLAND NE FL. STACKED SUBSIDENCE
ACROSS SE GA SUN WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND ADVERTISED
POPS LESS THAN 15% WHILE TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE LOW/MID 90S WITH
DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE MID/UPPER 60S NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
BASIN KEEPING HEAT INDICES GENERALLY BELOW 100 DEG. HIGHS ACROSS
NE FL WILL RANGE NEAR 90 TO UPPER 80S UNDER PASSING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTORMS.

LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 70S TONIGHT ACROSS SE GA TO THE MID 70S
ALONG THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN. AREAS OF LATE NIGHT FOG WITH
PATCHY DENSE IS LIKELY ACROSS SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT WERE CLOUDS CAN CLEAR BEFORE LOW STRATUS FORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS
CENTRAL FL WHILE A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE MISS VALLEY. DRIER
AIR AND NE TO E FLOW NORTH OF THE FRONT RESULTS IN LIMITED POPS ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SE GA...WHILE AREAS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH WILL HAVE A CONTINUATION
OF MAINLY SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. TEMPS WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
INLAND SE GA WHERE READINGS THERE WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES
OF 102 TO 105 DEGREES. HIGHS ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 103 DEGREES. COOLEST
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WILL BE ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE
ONSHORE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MODELS CONTINUE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE MEAN LAYER RIDGE RETROGRADING
INTO THE WESTERN U.S. AND TROUGH REESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE GFS ALSO DEVELOPS A WEAK CLOSED LOW IN THE NE GULF TOWARDS
THE END OF THE WEEK AND MOVES IT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO SE GA BY THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND. POPS...AS A RESULT...WILL BE INCREASING
AGAIN DURING THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA BUT WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INLAND SE GA.

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS ACROSS NE FL TERMINALS THIS AFTN WITH
PREVAILING VFR AT SSI. TS MOST PROBABLE AT GNV THIS AFTERNOON WITH
MVFR CIGS RAISING TO VFR ALONG THE FL COAST BY EVENING. AFTER
MIDNIGHT LOW STRATUS/SHALLOW GROUND FOG EXPECTED ACROSS INLAND
LOCATIONS AND SUGGESTED DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AT TERMINALS IN
THE 18Z PACKAGE. SHOWERS MOST LIKELY NEAR SGJ EARLY SUN MORNING
AND INCLUDED VCSH.

.MARINE...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE WATERS TODAY THEN
STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED TRAILING
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GA AND N FL LEGS THROUGH THIS EVENING AND WILL
ADVERTISED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION INITIALLY...DECREASING
BELOW HEADLINES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO DEVELOPING
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW.

.HYDROLOGY...THE BLACK CREEK AT PENNY FARMS CONTINUED TO SLOWLY
RISE TO NEAR 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON AFTER YESTERDAYS 0.50" BASIN
AVERAGE RAINFALL...AND NOT MUCH QPF EXPECTED TODAY. RIVERS
INCLUDING THE OCKLAWAHA IN MARION WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
THEY NEAR ACTION STAGE.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 70 94 70 95 / 10 10 10 20
SSI 76 86 77 86 / 10 10 10 20
JAX 74 89 72 91 / 20 20 20 20
SGJ 76 86 75 87 / 30 40 20 30
GNV 73 90 73 91 / 30 40 20 40
OCF 73 89 73 90 / 50 60 30 50

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/PETERSON/WALSH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS JACKSONVILLE FL

1139 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...

A SURFACE COLD JUST PUSHED SOUTH OF JAX INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
TRAILED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE NE...GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH...AND
SPOTTY SHOWER ACTIVITY PRESSING SSW FROM THE GA COAST. DEEPER
CONVECTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDER WAS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 50 NM IN THE VICINITY
OF A BROAD SURFACE LOW. A LOW POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK OVER SE GA
WAS LIFTING INTO A BROKEN CUMULUS FIELD...WITH ADDITIONAL CUMULUS
POPPING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF NE FL. TEMPS WERE IN THE
LOW/MID 80S ALREADY WITH LOW/MID 70 DEW PTS.

THE HRRR HAD AN EXCELLENT HANDLE ON MORNING RAINFALL TRENDS AND
ADVERTISED ADDITIONAL BLOSSOMING OF POST-FRONTAL PRECIP ACROSS SE
GA THROUGH AND THE EASTERN HALF OF NE FL THROUGH EARLY AFTN. THE
12Z JAX RAOB SHOWED DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO INFILTRATE THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS...WHICH WILL HELP LIMIT POST-FRONTAL TSTORM
POTENTIAL. THUS ADVERTISED ISOLATED TSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS TODAY
EXCEPT FOR OUR FL ZONES ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 301 CORRIDOR
WERE MORE SCATTERED TSTORMS ARE LIKELY AND FEW STRONGER CELLS WITH
GUSTY WINDS COULD FORM DURING PEAK HEATING. BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS TODAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF AMOUNTS
ABOVE A HALF AN INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF GILCHRIST...ALACHUA...AND
MARION COUNTIES WHERE THE FRONT WILL COMBINED WITH DIURNAL
HEATING...SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE AND PASSING UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE ENERGY. HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 90S ACROSS SE GA
TO THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF NE FL WERE MORE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIP IS EXPECTED. BREEZY ONSHORE WILL KEEP THE COAST COOLER WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S.

.AVIATION...PREVAILING MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY UNDER PASSING SHOWERS. ADVERTISED TEMPO TS THIS
AFTERNOON AT GNV ONLY...WITH SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT LOW
STRATUS AND GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AND WILL
TREND TOWARD MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE 18Z PACKAGE.

.MARINE...COMBINED THE GA WATERS WITH THE FL WATERS N OF ST
AUGUSTINE WHERE NE WINDS WILL NEAR 15-20 KTS TODAY TRAILING THE
COLD FRONT AND ADVERTISED SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. OUR FL
WATERS FROM SGJ-FLAGLER BEACH ARE EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE LIGHTER E
WINDS AS THE FRONTAL ZONE BEGINS TO STALL ACROSS CENTRAL FL LATER
TODAY INTO SUN AND THU NO HEADLINES EXPECTED...BUT DO EXPECT
BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THAT LEG
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

.HYDROLOGY...BLACK CREEK AT PENNY FARMS REMAINS WELL BEHAVED WITH
THE LATEST STAGE 7.86 FT WELL BELOW 10 FT ACTION STAGE. ELSEWHERE
THE OCKLAWAHA RIVER NEAR OCALA HAS RISEN TO ACTION STAGE WITH
YESTERDAYS RAINFALL. COULD SEE ADDTTIONAL RISES ACROSS THE
SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE RAINFALL
EXPECTED TODAY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 93 70 95 70 / 30 0 10 10
SSI 87 76 86 77 / 50 10 10 10
JAX 89 74 90 72 / 50 20 20 20
SGJ 86 76 87 75 / 50 30 40 20
GNV 90 72 91 73 / 60 20 40 20
OCF 90 72 91 73 / 60 50 60 30

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

ENYEDI/PETERSON/COMBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

445 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY-TONIGHT...
SFC LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL CRANK A WEAK FRONTAL TROF AXIS
OVER THE FL PANHANDLE INTO THE NRN PENINSULA THRU THE DAY. AS THE AXIS
NUDGES INTO THE AREA...WINDS ALONG AND N OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR WILL VEER
TO THE N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN TO THE N/NE THIS AFTN. S OF I-4...A
STEADY W/SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL. THE USAF 915HZ CAPE PROFILER SHOWING
SIGNS OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AS THE BRISK W/SW FLOW THAT PREVAILED
THRU THE H100-H70 LYR ON FRIDAY HAVE BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THRU
3KFT...AND W/NW 5-10KTS THRU THE 3KFT-10KFT LYR. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO MEASURE HI PWAT AIR BTWN 2.2" AND 2.4" OVER CENTRAL/N FL.
STATEWIDE...WHILE LATEST RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS H100-H70 MEAN RH BTWN
80-90PCT...H85-H50 RH BTWN 70-80PCT.

SEA BREEZE FORMATION ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST DUE TO THE
WEAKENING WRLY FLOW...PGRAD ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SUGGESTS ANY SEA
BREEZE WILL BE LIMITED N OF SEBASTIAN INLET. EVEN SO...STORM STRENGTH
ONCE AGAIN WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AS WARM TEMPS ALOFT CONTINUE TO LIMIT
DEEP LYR THERMODYNAMIC INSTABILITY...H70 TEMPS BTWN 8-9C AND H50
TEMPS ARND -5C ARE YIELDING LAPSE RATES ARND 5C/KM THRU THE LYR. WEAK
CAPPING ARND THE H85 LVL WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION ONCE
CONVECTIVE TEMP TRIGGERS ARE REACHED (U80S-L90S)...WHICH WILL LEAVE
LITTLE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE AIRMASS TO BUILD UP SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO
BECOME EXPLOSIVE.

PRESENCE OF THE APPROACHING TROF AXIS HAS ENHANCED THE MID LVL VORT
FIELDS ACRS CENTRAL FL...PROVIDING MID LVL DYNAMIC LIFT. UPR LVLS ARE
WEAKLY AS THE PENINSULA IS UNDER THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF A
40-50KT NERLY JET STREAK OVER CUBA AND THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. WILL GO
WITH 70/80 POPS AS THE HI PWAT VALUES AND TROF ENHANCED INSTABILITY
SUPPORTS NMRS/WDSPRD PRECIP COVERAGE...BCMG 30-40PCT CHC AFT SUNSET
CONTG THRU MIDNIGHT. THREAT FOR LCL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE AS RECENT
RAINFALL HAS PUSHED ERC VALUES BLO 20 OVER MUCH OF THE CWA...INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN LAKE/ST. LUCIE/MARTIN COUNTIES.

BULK OF ANY RAINFALL EXPECTED AFT PEAK HEATING HRS...BUT INCREASING
CLOUD COVER/PRECIP COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS WITHIN A DEG OR TWO
OF CLIMO AVG (L90S). SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE M70S AREAWIDE SUGGEST ABV
AVG MIN TEMPS IN THE M/U70.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...
MODELS ARE LEANING TOWARDS KEEPING THE TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE LATTER HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WOULD CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE DEEPEST MOISTURE
SOUTHWARD AND ALLOW THE ONSHORE COMPONENT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
TROUGH/BOUNDARY TO OVERSPREAD FURTHER SOUTH...POSSIBLY TO THE SPACE
COAST. THE FURTHER SOUTH THE BOUNDARY IS ABLE TO SLIP...THE MORE DRY
AIR THE ONSHORE FLOW CAN ADVECT INTO THE REGION. FOR NOW...MODELS
SHOW BEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST INTO
OKEECHOBEE/OSCEOLA. LOWEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS VOLUSIA/NORTHERN
LAKE WHERE ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER AND AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY DRIER...SHIFTING BEST RAIN CHANCES FURTHER INLAND AND WEST.
SEVERE THREAT REMAINS LOW DUE TO WARM TEMPS ALOFT BUT THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.

MON-WED...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY ELONGATE AND WEAKEN
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH THE ECMWF STILL
CONSIDERABLY STRONGER IN HOLDING ONTO LOWER HEIGHTS OVER THE
PENINSULA. OVERALL THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY...OR ITS REMNANTS...WILL
MEANDER OVER THE PENINSULA THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES ON THE
NORTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY..GENERALLY NORTH OF THE CAPE...WILL BE
LOWER IN STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEST RAIN
CHANCES CURRENTLY ON MONDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 60-70% AND THEN
LOWER COVERAGE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AT 40-50% AS SOME OVERALL
DRYING WORKS INTO THE AREA AND THE TROUGH FURTHER WASHES OUT.

THU-FRI...
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 25/00Z RUNS IN THE LATE WEEK SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THOUGH DIFFERENCES REMAINS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE MUCH FASTER
IN REBUILDING THE LOW WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BACK ACROSS THE
PENINSULA WHILE ALSO SEEING RISING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS AS RIDING
BUILDS IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE ECMWF IS NOW ON A SIMILAR TRACK...
BUT HOLDS ONTO A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE STATE A DAY LONGER AND KEEP
PATTERN A LITTLE MORE UNSETTLED. OVERALL TREND LOOKS TO BE FOR POPS
TO TREND TOWARDS CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES AROUND 40% BY THE END OF
THE WEEK THROUGH BRISK OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ACTIVITY
BACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.

.AVIATION...THRU 26/12Z
FRNTL TROF OVER N FL WILL DRIFT INTO THE VCNTY OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
TODAY. SFC WNDS N OF KTIX-KISM BCMG LIGHT N/NW THRU MIDDAY...THEN
LIGHT TO GENTLE N/NE IN THE AFTN. W/SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE S OF KTIX-
KISM...LIGHT TO GENTLE KMLB-KVRB...GENTLE TO MODERATE KFPR-KSUA DUE
TO A TIGHTER SFC PGRAD OVER S FL. CHC MVFR SHRAS ALL SITES THRU BTWN
25/12Z-25/16Z...NMRS TO WDSPRD MVFR SHRAS/SCT IFR TSRAS ALL SITES
BTWN 24/16Z-24/24Z...SLGT CHC +TSRAS WITH SFC WND G35KTS. BTWN
25/00Z-25/04Z...CHC MVFR SHRAS/SLGT CHC IFR TSRAS ALL SITES.

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT/GENTLE WINDS N OF SEBASTIAN
INLET TO THE STEADY OFFSHORE FLOW S OF THE INLET WILL KEEP SEAS AOB
2FT NEARSHORE AND 2-3FT OFFSHORE. CHOPPY WIND WAVES THRU MIDDAY DUE
TO THE OFFSHORE WINDS WITH DOMINANT PDS BTWN 4-5SECS. PDS WILL
LENGTHEN TO 6-8SEC FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NWD AFT SUNSET AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW DAMPENS OUT THE WIND CHOP. SCT/NMRS OFFSHORE MOVING SHRAS/TSRAS
WITH STRONG SFC WND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MARINE HAZARD TODAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS REGION WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS NORTH OF THE CAPE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...THOUGH EXACTLY WHERE WIND
FIELD SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH BY LATE
MONDAY WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS OVERSPREADING OVER ALL THE WATERS INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SEAS 2-3FT WITH UP TO 4FT WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN BOATING
CONCERN WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE MOVING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...BOUNDARY MEANDERS NEAR VOLUSIA COUNTY RESULTING
IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS WITH SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10KTS ELSEWHERE OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC. SEAS
CONTINUE AROUND 2-3FT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 90 77 88 76 / 70 30 50 30
MCO 90 75 92 75 / 70 30 70 30
MLB 89 76 90 75 / 70 40 60 40
VRB 90 75 90 74 / 70 40 60 40
LEE 90 76 92 76 / 70 30 60 30
SFB 91 75 91 75 / 70 30 60 30
ORL 90 76 91 76 / 70 30 70 30
FPR 90 75 90 74 / 80 40 70 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...BRAGAW
LONG TERM/IMPACT WX...MOSES

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

327 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
AND A STATIONARY FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE WEEK...AND A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH THEN STALL OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...WATCHING FOR STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT
CAREFULLY. LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS A POSSIBILITY AS WIND FIELDS
REMAIN LIGHT...GROUNDS ARE WET AND SKIES ARE CLEAR. RAP AND H3R
BOTH SHOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS REDEVELOPING ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS COASTAL WINDS
INCREASE AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BUILDS FROM ROUGHLY HILTON HEAD
SOUTH TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND. WILL CARRY 20-30 PERCENT POPS IN THIS
AREAS TO OVER THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH
IN THIS SOLUTION WITH THE 4KM NSSL WRF DEPICTING CONSIDERABLY LESS
COVERAGE THROUGH 8 AM.

TODAY...THE SURFACE TROUGH/REMNANT COLD FRONT IS LOCATED WELL TO
THE SOUTH AND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORDIA
TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT SLOWLY SOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER-MID 60S ACROSS NORTH
AREAS AND DOWN TO AROUND 70 OR SO ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IT WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WARM WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 90S...BUT IT WILL FEEL CONSIDERABLY LESS
OPPRESSIVE WITH SUCH LOW HUMIDITY IN PLACE--A RARITY FOR SURE AT
THE END OF JULY. SHOULD SEE A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS WELL AS PARTS OF JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES
LATER THIS MORNING AS IT WILL TAKE LONGER FOR DEWPOINTS TO LOWER
THERE. THE CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD STEADILY MIX OUT AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES.

AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ACROSS
PARTS OF LIBERTY...LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES WHERE LOW-LEVEL
COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE INDUCED BY MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS COULD
INTERACT WITH SOME LINGERING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CAPPED MID-
LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD END THE RISK FOR ANY MEANINGFUL
CONVECTION. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH DRY
CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS POISED TO DECOUPLE AFTER SUNSET
AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NOSES
SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS...LOW DEWPOINTS AND CLEAR
SKIES WILL PROMOTE MODEST RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS SO HAVE UTILIZED
THE LOWER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM TO CONSTRUCT THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S AT THE COAST WITH MID 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON. A FEW MID 60S WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL INLAND...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS. THE 25/00Z GFS COOP
GUIDANCE FOR ALLENDALE IS FORECASTING A LOW OF 63 DEGREES WHICH IS
HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR LATE JULY. IT APPEARS ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE THEIR RESPECTIVE RECORD LOWS FOR 26 JULY.

SUNDAY...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
90S AWAY FROM THE COAST...BUT UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S WILL ALSO BE COMMON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN
THE 80S ON THE BEACHES COURTESY OF ONSHORE WINDS. CANNOT COMPLETELY
RULE OUT A COUPLE OF ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWERS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SHOULD
PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING...SO ODDS FAVOR MOST/ALL AREAS REMAINING
RAIN-FREE. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
RAIN. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR
NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THE
BEACHES.

MONDAY...AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETREATS WEST...THE UPPER FLOW WILL TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PER 25/00Z GUIDANCE TRENDS...ADDED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECASTS. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
COULD REMAIN RATHER WEAK...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER COULD
REMAIN LIMITED. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/80S
ON THE BEACHES CAN BE EXPECTED...AND DEWPOINTS WILL CREEP UPWARD
INTO THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER/MID 70S AT THE COAST.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT
AND THE ASSOCIATED POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE COULD CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY EVENING
AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWS IN
THE 70S MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED ONCE AGAIN BY HIGHS IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE BEACHES TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER REGIME
AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST
FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...FEATURING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MODEL AGREEMENT
ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND STALLS...PERHAPS
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IN TURN WILL
HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS AND FOG TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINALS PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS HIGH CLOUDS SCOUR OUT. BEST CHANCES
FOR IFR CIGS WILL BE AT KSAV WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED...BUT PROBABILITIES AT KCHS ARE NON-ZERO. THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIFR CIGS COULD OCCUR AT
KSAV...POSSIBLY BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. WILL SHOW A TEMPO GROUP
FROM 09/12Z FOR BKN004...BUT HOLD OFF ON SHOWING PREVAILING
CONDITIONS THAT LOW UNTIL TRENDS BECOME ESTABLISHED. AT
KCHS...WILL ONLY SHOW MVFR VSBYS WITH SCT004 TO TREND. MAY VERY
WELL NEED LIFR OR IFR CIGS AT KCHS...BUT A DRYING UPSTREAM AIRMASS
MAY KEEP CONDITIONS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AS IT FILTERS SOUTH.
VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL WORK DOWN THE COAST
TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO
MAX OUT AT 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BUILD
IN THE DEVELOPING NORTHEAST FETCH AND MAXING OUT 2-4 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ATTM...BUT IT COULD
STILL BE NASTY AT TIMES FOR SMALL CRAFT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS THIS EVENING WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE INLAND/MARINE THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE WATER AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS
FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE
POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

ST/SPR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

907 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ANY LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY DISSIPATE OR MOVE
EAST OF OUR COUNTIES IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. THE PROBABILITY OF
ADDITIONAL SHOWER OR STORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT APPEARS LOW,
BUT ANY DEVELOP THEY WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-72, WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS HAS STALLED OUT. WE KEPT ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT, BUT MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY.

DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 OVERNIGHT,
WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG FORMATION. MOST
AREAS SHOULD ONLY SEE 3-4 MILE VISIBILITY, BUT LOCALIZED AREAS
COULD DROP LESS THAN A MILE, PER HRRR OUTPUT. HAVE ADDED FOG TO
THE FORECAST FOR LATER TONIGHT, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 FOR NOW. WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE NEED TO EXPAND FOG COVERAGE.

UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY TO POP AND WEATHER, WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MORNING MCS HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH 19Z/2PM RADAR IMAGERY SHOWING NO LINGERING
PRECIP. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL SHIFT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL INDIANA INTO EASTERN
IOWA. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITHIN A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY SBCAPES
OF 1500 TO 2500J/KG. HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY SHOWING STORMS
FIRING ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, AS WELL AS ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY CREATED BY THE MORNING MCS.
GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS...SEE NO REASON TO STRAY FROM
THIS SOLUTION. AS A RESULT...HAVE FOCUSED HIGHEST POPS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-74 AND EAST OF I-55 THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL LIKELY
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. AFTER THAT...THE QUESTION BECOMES WHETHER
ANY NOCTURNAL CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR AND RAPID
REFRESH MODELS SAY NO...HOWEVER THE NAM KEEPS AT LEAST SCATTERED
PRECIP GOING. THE MAIN 850MB JET WILL BE ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...SO THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH SUPPORT
FOR OVERNIGHT STORMS IN ILLINOIS. WITH THAT BEING SAID...NAM DOES
SHOW A WEAK 20-25KT BRANCH OF THE LLJ NOSING INTO THE AREA. WITH
THIS WEAK INFLOW COMBINED WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN JUST
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND A WEAK RESIDUAL BOUNDARY IN
OR CLOSE TO THE CWA...BELIEVE A SMALL CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE TOMORROW THROUGH TUE. THIS WILL ONLY BE SEEN
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE WORDING...BUT WILL BE SEEN THROUGH TUE.
ONCE THIS WEAK BOUNDARY BREAKS DOWN ENOUGH TUE NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE IL RIVER WITH APPROACH OF THE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE GOTTEN LITTLE FASTER WITH THIS
FRONT AND IT NOW ARRIVES EARLY ON WED IN THE AREA. CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THIS FRONT WED AND THEN QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA LATE
WED AFTERNOON...SO WED NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY THROUGHOUT THE CWA.

TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THROUGH WED WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S
POSSIBLE MON AND WED...AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S LIKELY FOR TUESDAY.
THIS HEAT WILL COMBINE WITH DWPTS IN THE 70S...UPPER 70S ON
TUESDAY...TO CREATE HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 90S TO 105 FOR MON AND
WED...AND 105-110 FOR TUESDAY. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...105...WILL
BE CLOSE TOMORROW BUT ONLY IN EXTREME WESTERN COUNTIES. SO LEANING
AWAY FROM ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. CRITERIA IS MET ON TUE AND THEN
MAYBE IN THE SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE CWA FOR WED. OVERNIGHT SHIFT CAN
GET ANOTHER LOOK FOR TOMORROW BECAUSE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PCPN COULD
BE A LIMITING FACTOR.

ONCE THE MID WEEK FRONT MOVES THROUGH DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALSO BRING IN DRIER DWPTS TO
THE AREA. THIS RIDGE DOES BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND AND
WILL ALLOW A FRONT TO DROP INTO THE AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF THE
WEEKEND. FOR NOW WILL JUST HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PCPN FOR SAT
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL ALSO BE COOLER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUES TO LINGER NORTH OF
I-74 AND EAST OF I-57. THE ONLY TERMINALS AFFECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS APPEAR TO BE BMI AND CMI. THE HRRR AND RAP MODELS
SHOW AN OVERALL WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION BY 02-03Z, WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THAT TREND IN THE TAFS,
REMOVING ANY MENTION OF VCTS AFTER 02Z.

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH, AS SEEN ON KILX RADAR, HAS
PRODUCED A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NNE WINDS AT BMI, WHICH SHOULD
ALSO OCCUR AT PIA BY 00Z. HAVE INCLUDED NNE WINDS AT BMI/PIA FOR
AN HOUR OR SO. OTHERWISE, WINDS SHOULD BECOME VARIABLE BY MID-
EVENING UNDER A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT.

FOG CONCERNS ARE INCREASING, AS HRRR COVERS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IL
WITH DENSE FOG. HAVE LOWERED THE VIS IN THE TEMPO GROUPS TO 1SM
FOR SPI/DEC/CMI, AND 2SM FOR PIA/BMI. THE MAIN FOCUS TIME FOR
DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE AROUND SUNRISE, OR THE 10Z-12Z TIME
FRAME.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

652 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON

...UPDATED FOR 27/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING. WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR BR OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF SEEING IT ARE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
GREATER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR...ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
THE KDSM AND KOTM TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY
LOWER ON THE VSBYS.

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

945 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Weak cool front is expected to drop into the region overnight.
Scattered thunderstorms have recently increased in coverage to our
north and these will drift south and east into southern Indiana over
the next few hours. For this forecast update, we did increase PoP
chances across southern Indiana and northern Kentucky for the early
overnight period. Rest of the forecast elements look OK at this
time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Given a weak cool front dropping in from the north, an outflow
boundary from old convection coming in from the west, and a weak
upper shortwave trof sliding across Illinois and Indiana, will need
to retain small PoPs in the forecast this evening. HRRR has been
doing fairly well with the convection thus far today and supports
small PoPs as well. Convection chances will decrease during the
overnight hours, with another muggy, still night in store. Guidance
has been too warm with both highs and lows lately, so took lows to
around 70 tonight. If we retain more cloud cover than currently
expected, though, that forecast may indeed be too cool.

On Monday what little is left of tonight`s cool front may still be
lingering around the area, and outflow boundaries from overnight
convection to our northwest may be present as well. Precipitable
water values will pool around two inches and the low levels will
become unstable enough to support convection. Mid-level lapse rates,
though, will be quite weak and 7H temps will be warm. With the
absence of a strong trigger and with the upper ridge building in,
will keep PoPs low. High temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Any convection tomorrow will be diurnal and should dissipate with
the setting of the sun, so will go dry for Monday night with warm,
muggy conditions once again.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Tuesday - Thursday...

For mid week, we`ll be on the edge of an upper level ridge with a
weak cold front progged to push southeast through the region late
Wed/Wed night. Ahead of the front, scattered storms will be
possible on Tues and Wed. Generally wind profiles look pretty weak
although ample instability exists both days. For Tues, some mid
level capping may help inhibit storm strength and coverage. Storms
that do get going should be mainly heavy rainers with precipitable
water amounts (PWATs) around or just over 2 inches and slow storm
motions. Wed there will be slightly stronger winds and faster storm
motions with high PWATs, so hopefully any heavy rainers will have
some motion to them. Thursday some lingering showers and storms may
occur early in the day over south central KY close to the front.

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
Tues-Thurs with the hottest day being Wed ahead of the front.

Friday - Sunday...

A dry end to the week looks likely behind the fropa with humidity
values dropping as well. Highs will fall back into the mid 80s to
around 90.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 705 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Weak cool front, outflow boundaries and associated TSRA have
remained well north of the TAF sites so far this evening and with
the loss of daytime heating, expecting a dry evening and overnight
as well. Couldn`t rule a stray shower popping up around SDF but
coverage and confidence is rather low to include.

Expect some light fog again at BWG during the pre-dawn hours tomorrow,
similar to the past few mornings. Otherwise, plan on VFR conditions
again for Monday at all sites. A pop up shower or storm is possible
during the afternoon/evening hours across the region though the
weather conditions aren`t favorable for widespread activity so will
leave a mention out of the TAF.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......ZT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

708 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Any convection tomorrow will be diurnal and should dissipate with
the setting of the sun, so will go dry for Monday night with warm,
muggy conditions once again.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Tuesday - Thursday...

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
Tues-Thurs with the hottest day being Wed ahead of the front.

Friday - Sunday...

A dry end to the week looks likely behind the fropa with humidity
values dropping as well. Highs will fall back into the mid 80s to
around 90.

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Update)...
Updated 705 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Short Term........13
Long Term.........AMS
Aviation..........ZT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PADUCAH KY

1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION FOR 06Z TAF PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 844 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE ALL POPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER MISSOURI HAS PUSHED WELL WEST OF OUR
AREA...AND THE LATEST HRRR TAKES IT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND WEST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEAREST CONVECTION NORTHWEST OF THE REGION
IS OVER SOUTHERN NEBRASKA...AND ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WHAT EVER
IS LEFT OF IT WILL NOT REACH OUR REGION BY 12Z.

THE OTHER ADJUSTMENT WAS TO SHOW A SHARPER DEWPOINT GRADIENT TO
MATCH OBSERVATIONS. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE CALM AND SKIES
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT...GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING SHOULD TAKE TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE CURRENT DEWPOINTS.
AS A RESULT...KNOCKED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN
THE EVANSVILLE TRI STATE REGION.

WITH CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO SATURATION BY
DAYBREAK...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR FOG POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IN
THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA WHERE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS
PRESENT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

FIRST ITEM IS...WE WILL BE NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE OZARK FOOTHILL REGION OF SEMO. WILL LET THE
MID SHIFT ADDRESS THIS AS WE ARE BARELY AT CRITERIA. COORD WITH MEG
AND THEY DO NOT HAVE ONE OUT YET TO OUR SOUTH. HI RES MODELS KEEP
CONVECTION WEST OF SEMO REST OF TODAY. WILL KEEP IT DRY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT AND MONITOR. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE MODELS DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION OVER SEMO (MAINLY LATE). HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

WE HAVE HAVE A CONTINUED SLIM CHANCE OF CONVECTION FAR WEST
SATURDAY. QUASI MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD PRECLUDE EASTWARD
EXPANSION. HOWEVER BY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WE TRANSITION
BACK TO A NW FLOW ON THE EDGE OF H5 RIDGE TO OUR SW. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION INCREASE FROM THE NW AS A RESULT. HEIGHTS START TO RISE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND SHIFT BEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO OUR NE.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND MOS DURING
THE DAY...AND NEAR OR A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE MOS AT NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THE PAH FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE FRINGES OF A SRN CONUS
MID/UPPER RIDGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
MED RANGE MODELS (DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLES) HAVE SHOWN SOME
VARIABILITY...BUT ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN. IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD...A ROBUST SHRTWV ALOFT IS
PROGGED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS...DRAGGING A SFC
BOUNDARY THROUGH OUR REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN HOT HUMID
CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE SYSTEM.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BE IN NRN REACHES OF THE PAH
FORECAST AREA ON MON/MON NIGHT. SUBTLE MID LEVEL SHRTWV ENERGY MAY
ACT ON THIS BOUNDARY AND THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...BUT ONLY FOR PARTS OF SERN IL/SWRN IND/ERN
PENNYRILE REGION.

TUE/TUE NIGHT LOOKS DRY UNDER THE CAPPING INFLUENCE OF THE SRN
RIDGE...THEN HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD BEGIN TO HAPPEN BY WED...AND THIS
MAY BE ENOUGH TO TAP THE TROP`S MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE. AT
THIS TIME...FROPA IS SLATED TO OCCUR WED NIGHT. THE FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PCPN FOR
THE ENTIRE REGION MAINLY EARLY THU. STILL...POPS WILL NOT BE HIGHER
THAN 40 PERCENT DURING THE ENTIRE EXTENDED FORECAST.

WITH DEWPOINTS INITIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE 70S...EXPECT A
ROUND OF UNCOMFORTABLE AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES THROUGH WED. READINGS
OF 105 (HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA) MAY BE COMMON IN THE WRN HALF OF THE
REGION MON...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION BY TUE AND WED.

.AVIATION...
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MVFR FOG POSSIBLE MAINLY AT KPAH/KEVV/KOWB BETWEEN 07Z-13Z. MID-
HIGH CLOUDS EXTENDING FROM THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER MISSOURI WILL
MAINLY AFFECT KCGI/KPAH OVERNIGHT. KCGI CIGS COULD BRIEFLY DIP TO
MVFR THROUGH 12Z. CALM TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 KTS AFTER 13Z.

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...RST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

716 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...
EXPECTING MOSTLY VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE TERMINAL
FORECAST PERIOD ENDING 28/00Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THIS EVENING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS IN AND AROUND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE. COULD SEE
A FEW DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AFTER 27/14Z
MONDAY. /06/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF
WRN LA/EXTREME SW AR/SE OK/ADJACENT SECTIONS OF E TX...ALONG AND W
OF THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE
SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION OVER SCNTRL AR/NCNTRL AND NE LA. THIS
CONVECTION HAS NOT MOVED MUCH IN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...ALTHOUGH WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THIS
CONVECTION DRIFTING WSW THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DINMINSHING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE EXTENDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS
EVENING FOR THESE AREAS BEFORE DROPPING MENTION OVERNIGHT.

OF COURSE...THE ONGOING HEAT WAVE REMAINS OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...WITH THE REGION HAVING REACHED THE UPPER
90S TO IN EXCESS OF 100 DEGREES. IN FACT...AS OF 2045Z...SHV IS
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY FROM TYING A RECORD HIGH TEMP OF 103 SET BACK IN
1925! UNFORTUNATELY...THE PRESENCE OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY JUST
TO THE E OVER NCNTRL LA/SW AR AND ATTENDENT 850MB THETA-E AXIS HAS
NOT ALLOWED FOR MUCH MIXING OF DRIER AIR DOWN TO THE
SFC...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER TIER OF THE HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 108-110 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF SW AR/PORTIONS
OF NW AND NCNTRL LA. DON/T FORESEE MUCH CHANGE IN THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AS THE 850MB THETA-E AXIS WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
DESPITE THE REMNANTS OF THE SFC TROUGH/OUTFLOW BNDRY WASHING OUT
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. MAX TEMPS WILL AGAIN BE PERSISTENT
NEAR/IN EXCESS OF THE CENTURY MARK...THUS HAVE EXPANDED THE
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY W A TAD TO INCLUDE AN ADDITIONAL COLUMN OF
COUNTIES IN E TX THAT ARE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY THAT IT MAY BE EXTENDED LATER IN TIME AS THE DEATH
RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS GRIP OVER THE SRN PLAINS/MID AND LOWER MS
VALLEY.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE NOW OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY SHOULD
SLOWLY DRIFT E THROUGH OK AND INTO AR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MAINTAINING THE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT OVER THE REGION THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED DRY CONDITIONS AS
WELL...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT FEW AFTERNOONS MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF E TX/N
LA...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

A PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS IN THE OFFING THOUGH BY LATE
WEEK...AS THE DEATH RIDGE FINALLY BEGINS TO RETORGRADE W BACK OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/GREAT BASIN FRIDAY. WEAKNESSES ALOFT WILL SLIDE ALONG THE
ERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCT MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE
REGION. HAVE MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY...BEFORE TAPERING
POPS OFF FROM THE NE FRIDAY AS MUCH DRIER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL SW
AROUND THE RIDGE. WHILE LOWER RH/S ARE EXPECTED...ATTM TEMPS DON/T
LOOK TO COOL OFF MUCH...WITH TEMPS STILL SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UNFORTUNATELY...DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL APPEAR TO ONLY
GET WORSE AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF AUGUST.

THANKS WFO/S JAN/LZK/LCH/HGX FOR COORDINATION THIS AFTERNOON.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DESPITE 850MB TEMPS SOME 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN 24 HOURS
AGO /PER THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...LIKELY DUE TO THE LATE EVENING
CONVECTION OVER NE AND NCNTRL LA THAT MIGRATED SW INTO CNTRL
LA...15-16Z TEMPS ARE STILL RUNNING 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN THIS
TIME SATURDAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MLU WHICH IS ABOUT 3
DEGREES COOLER. REMNANTS OF THE WEAK SFC TROUGH/POSSIBLY
REINFORCED OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM THE SATURDAY EVENING CONVECTION WERE
FOUND AT 12Z THIS MORNING ON THE SFC ANALYSIS OVER SCNTRL AR/NE
LA...EXTENDING FROM JUST W OF ELD AND MLU...TO NEAR ESF...AND
SHOULD BE THE FOCAL AREA FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AS
ADDITIONAL HEATING/INSTABILITY DEVELOP AND WEAK STEERING WINDS
ALLOW THIS CONVECTION TO DRIFT WWD. THE CU IS STILL MOSTLY NON-
EXISTENT AS OF 16Z OVER THE REGION...BUT THIS SHOULD CHANGE BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THE HRRR AND SSEO EMSEMBLES DEPICT ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING NEAR/W OF THE REMNANT SFC BNDRY OVER NCNTRL
LA AND POSSIBLY EXTREME SRN AR...WHICH MAY MIGRATE INTO ADJACENT
SECTIONS OF E TX. HAVE EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH ANY DEVELOPMENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY
EVENING.

THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE DANGEROUS HEAT...AS DEWPOINTS
ARE SLOW TO MIX DOWN ONCE AGAIN. HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA HAS BEEN
NEARLY MET AS OF 16Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW AR/MUCH OF N LA...WITH
AGAIN UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA POSSIBLE OVER THESE AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS THAN 24 HOURS
AGO...AHVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR E TX/NW LA...WITH NEAR
RECORD HIGH TEMPS POSSIBLE IN SHV /CURRENT RECORD IS 103 SET BACK
IN 1925/. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WILL AGAIN ADDRESS THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY IN THE AFTERNOON DISCUSSION.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 20 10 10 10
MLU 75 100 75 99 / 0 10 10 10
DEQ 73 99 73 98 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 76 101 76 100 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 74 100 74 99 / 0 10 10 10
TYR 78 99 78 98 / 20 10 10 10
GGG 78 100 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
LFK 75 99 74 98 / 20 10 10 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT MONDAY FOR TXZ096-097-111-112-126-
137-138-150>153-165>167.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

400 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPS HAVE AGAIN REACHED THE UPPER 90S ACROSS ALL OF THE
REGION...WITH SHV REACHING 101 DEGREES /AS OF 2035Z/. THE LATEST
SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUR WEAK SFC TROUGH HAS DRIFTED A TAD
S ACROSS SCNTRL AR INTO NE LA...WITH SCT CONVECTION BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP ALONG THIS BNDRY /AND ATTENDANT H850 THETA-E AXIS/ OVER SW
AND SCNTRL AR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES TOWERING
CU DEVELOP FARTHER SE INTO NE LA...WITH THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO
ENSEMBLES SUGGESTING ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING FARTHER W ACROSS NCNTRL LA.
MEANWHILE...THE WEAK STEERING WINDS ALOFT WOULD FAVOR THE
CONVECTION OVER SW AR DRIFTING SSW INTO EXTREME SE OK/SW AR...THUS
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING OVER SE OK/SW AR/NCNTRL
LA. HOWEVER...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A STRAY -SHRA
REDEVELOP LATE OVER NCNTRL LA NEAR THE SFC TROUGH AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OVER CNTRL/ERN AR AND NCNTRL MS.

THE MAIN PLAYER THOUGH REMAINS THE DANGEROUS HEAT...WITH DEWPOINTS
FAILING TO MIX OUT MUCH AS HEAT INDICES HAVE RANGED FROM 105-110
OVER ALL OF THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. IN
FACT...INDICES AT RSN/MLU/BQP HAVE ALREADY REACHED 110 DEGREES
/THE UPPER END OF THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA/. EXPECTING VERY
SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY AS TEMPS/DEWPOINTS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY...THUS HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT HEAT
ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...WITH HIGH END CRITERIA AGAIN OVER
THE RSN/MLU AREAS ONCE AGAIN. THE CU FIELD MAY ACTUALLY REMAIN OR
REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT NEAR AND JUST W OF THE SFC TROUGH...WHICH
WOULD OFFER LITTLE RELIEF TO THE HEAT.

THE SHORT TERM PROGS DO DRIFT THE WEAK SFC TROUGH A LITTLE FARTHER
W SUNDAY INTO NCNTRL LA...WHICH WOULD FOCUS ISOLATED CONVECTION
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/LOWER TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY OF
DEEP E TX AROUND THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE. DID
MAINTAIN MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SUNDAY EVENING FOR THESE
AREAS BEFORE HEATING IS LOST AFTER SUNSET. OTHERWISE...VERY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS
THE DEATH RIDGE BEGINS TO AMPLIFY AND SHIFT NE FROM THE SRN
PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST MONDAY...LINGERING THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY.

THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF WITH A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SE AROUND THE RIDGE AS IT BEGINS TO
RETROGRADE W ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION BY FRIDAY. THE PROGS DO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO SCT
CONVECTION DEVELOPING THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
REGION...BEFORE DEEPENING NNERLY WINDS YIELD DRIER AIR ADVECTING
SSW INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/SRN PLAINS. THUS HAVE TAPERED SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FROM N TO S FRIDAY...BEFORE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS BUT
DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 78 101 78 100 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 77 100 76 99 / 20 20 10 10
DEQ 73 98 74 99 / 20 10 10 10
TXK 76 100 77 100 / 20 10 10 10
ELD 76 99 76 99 / 20 20 10 10
TYR 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 10
GGG 78 101 78 100 / 0 10 0 10
LFK 75 98 75 98 / 0 10 10 10

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-151.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

1239 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST AND AROUND LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN HAVE REMAINED ELEVATED BETWEEN 75 AND
78F...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES 105 TO 110 AT NOON. ERGO...ISSUED
A HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 00Z. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT MEAN LATE
STORMS SO RELIEF WILL NOT BE PRESENT IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 750 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

AN ELEVATED TEMPERATURE INVERSION BEGINS AROUND 750 FEET AND GOES
UP TO 2000 FEET. 925 MB TEMPERATURE IS ALMOST 26C WITH THE 850MB
TEMPERATURE AT 19.5C...BOTH OF WHICH ARE RECORDS FOR THIS
DATE/TIME BASED OFF OF SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. MOST OF THE
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN IS BELOW 12000 FEET WITH A NEAR SATURATED
LAYER AROUND 9500 FEET. WHILE ABOVE THIS LAYER THERE IS NOT AS MUCH
MOISTURE...THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IN THE COLUMN IS AT 2.06 INCHES.
THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS 94F...BUT GIVEN SUBSIDENCE OVERHEAD
WE SHOULD SEE LIMITED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY. LATEST HRRR HAS
PROGGED WELL WITH SHOWERS OVER COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF PASCAGOULA/MOBILE. IT POPS QUITE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDDAY. HOWEVER...IT`S COVERAGE
IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO IT`S HIGHER FORECAST TEMPERATURES. WINDS
IN THE PROFILE ARE FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM THE SURFACE TO 17000
FEET...THEN SLOWLY ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH AND THEN FINALLY
NORTHEAST IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 28 KNOTS WAS
FOUND NEAR 1000 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THERE WERE NO ISSUES WITH THE FLIGHT THIS
MORNING. THE BALLOON REACHED A HEIGHT OF 19.6 MILES ABOVE THE
GROUND BURSTING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN 34
MILES DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100
MINUTES.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN THE CONTINUATION
OF HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH LIMITED CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION WILL BE ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE THROUGH WEEKEND WITH A WEAKNESS ALOFT
SITUATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND THE SOUTHEAST. IMPULSES ROTATING
THE RIDGE MAY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...
BUT PRIMARILY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. A
WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO THE EAST OF THE AREA
BEFORE WASHING OUT...BUT MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO AID CONVECTION
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AGAIN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS THE
INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA AS IT
SHIFTS BACK TO THE EAST NORTHEAST AND BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE
OZARKS REGION. THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY CONVECTION DURING THIS
PERIOD WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS. MODELS DO INDICATE A
PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS
THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COLD FRONT TO PUSH DEEP INTO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE AREA AS WELL AS SOME RELIEF IN THE
TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. IN THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE MID 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDICES PRIMARILY
IN THE 102 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE..JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. 11

AVIATION...
CONVECTION THAT MOVED NEAR KGPT SEVERAL HOURS AGO IS WELL OUT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
REDEVELOPED FROM NORTH OF KJAN TO KMOB. AT THIS POINT...IF THERE IS
A THREAT TO ANY LOCAL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...IT
WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO KGPT. EXPECT GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WILL CARRY MENTION OF VCTS FOR
TERMINALS ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE AREA INCLUDING KGPT...KASD...
KNEW...KMSY AND KHUM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING A TERMINAL LIKELY TO PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR LESS THAN ONE HOUR. 35

MARINE...
THE WEAK NOCTURNAL COASTAL JET OVER THE NEARSHORE GULF COASTAL
WATERS EAST OF THE CHANDELEUR SOUND AND SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUND APPEARS TO WEAKEN ONCE WE GET PAST THIS MORNING. FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WINDS GENERALLY REMAIN 10
KNOTS OR BELOW WITH SEAS LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET. 35

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....BLUE.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ON MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM RED
RIVER LANDING TO DONALDSONVILLE.
POTENTIAL SPOT FORECAST FOR IRISH BAYOU MARSH FIRE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 96 76 95 76 / 20 10 20 10
BTR 96 77 96 77 / 20 10 20 10
ASD 96 78 95 77 / 30 20 20 10
MSY 96 79 96 79 / 30 20 30 10
GPT 95 79 95 78 / 40 30 20 10
PQL 95 77 95 76 / 40 30 20 10

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ040-058-060>064-
072.

GM...NONE.
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1159 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...
CU FIELD DEVELOPING TODAY WHERE WE WERE VOID OF CU DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY AND
IS FAR ENOUGH WEST THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TSRA ACROSS OUR
EASTERN TAF SITES LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING. STILL FEEL LIKE
COVERAGE IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE 18Z
TAF PACKAGE HOWEVER. CONVECTION ACROSS SC AR THIS MORNING IS
ORIENTED ALONG A 700MB THETAE AXIS WHICH IS FCST TO BACKDOOR
ITSELF INTO SW AR AND N LA LATER TODAY.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KTS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS ALREADY FIRED OVER DALLAS COUNTY AR THIS
MORNING NEAR THIS BNDRY...WITH THE SHORT TERM PROGS DEPICTING A NW
TO SE H850 THETA-E AXIS NEAR THE SFC TROUGH OVER THESE
AREAS...WHICH MAY SAG MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SRN AR INTO NCNTRL LA
THIS AFTERNOON. PW/S DO INCREASE TO 1.7-1.9 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THESE AREAS...WITH STRONG HEATING AND THE DEEPENING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS ON THE OUTER
PERIPHERY OF THE STOUT UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND MID-
SOUTH REGION. IN FACT...THE LATEST HRRR AND SSEO RUNS DEPICT
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE
AREAS...THUS HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS AFTERNOON.

HOWEVER...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HEAT...WITH NEAR TRIPLE DIGIT
HEAT AND A LACK OF SUFFICIENT DRY AIR MIXING /AS OBSERVED THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS/ RESULTING IN DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR SE
OK/SW AR/EXTREME ERN TX/N LA...BUT DID INCREASE HEAT INDICES
SLIGHTLY ESPECIALLY OVER SW AR/N LA AS THESE AREAS SHOULD SEE HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER END OF THE ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL ADDRESS A
POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IN THE AFTERNOON
DISCUSSION AS LITTLE WILL CHANGE IN THE SHORT TERM.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 101 78 101 78 / 10 10 10 10
MLU 98 78 99 77 / 20 10 20 10
DEQ 98 73 98 75 / 10 10 10 10
TXK 100 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 10
ELD 98 76 98 76 / 20 10 20 10
TYR 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 99 77 101 78 / 0 0 10 0
LFK 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 10 0

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.

15/13

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SHREVEPORT LA

1132 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF THE AC/CIRRUS SHIELD FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
OVER NCNTRL AR HAS MOSTLY DIMINISHED THIS MORNING...WITH STRONG
HEATING ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH MOST LOCALES ALREADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S AS OF 16Z. AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS A LITTLE
DEEPER THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE OF MORNINGS /PER
THE 12Z KSHV RAOB/...ALTHOUGH THE 850MB TEMP IS ABOUT 2 DEGREES
WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THIS HAS RESULTED IN 16Z TEMPS ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HOURS AGO ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH H850
RIDGING EXPECTED TO LINGER OVERHEAD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EVEN HOTTER AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT PERTAIN TO THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM WRN AND
SCNTRL AR INTO CNTRL MS/SRN AL.

ZONE UPDATE ALREADY OUT...GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
070>073.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
017>022.

OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ097-112-126-138-
151.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NEW ORLEANS LA

750 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

ANSORGE

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

STILL EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE LIMITED TO OUR FAR
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS STABILIZING
MARINE AIR HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REMAINING AREA. GIVEN
MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1500 J PER KG/ AND SURFACE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH IN THIS AREA...WILL NEED
TO MONITOR FOR STRONG STORMS.

AFTER PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA THIS EVENING...MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN IS MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. WENT NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S EXPECTED BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS.
DURING THIS TIME...AN UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AND
APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA WHICH IS CONDUCIVE TO MID-LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE AND SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS. THIS PATTERN MAKES DRY
CONDITIONS AND LIMITED CLOUDS HIGHLY PROBABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONVECTION WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
RATHER STRONG (FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR) COLD FRONT IN THE WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. BEYOND THAT THE THEME OF OVERALL COOL SUMMER FOR
SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH RE-
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN
CANADA.

OVERALL THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST OF THIS COMING
WEEK... WELL AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY ANYWAY. BEYOND THAT THERE ARE
ISSUES WITH THE NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE/TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE
PACIFIC INTO THE CONUS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OPERATIONAL GFS
IS AT ODDS WITH ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN BEYOND THURSDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN OF THE GFS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH OPERATIONAL ECMWF SO I AM GOING
WITH THAT IDEA.

THE BIG PICTURE IS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE ...WHICH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS RETROGRADES TO THE WESTERN CONUS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS HAPPENS AS A SERIES OF STRONG PACIFIC SYSTEMS TRACK EAST
FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN CONUS. IT IS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE..WHICH IS CURRENTLY A
CLOSED UPPER LOW AND SURFACE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO HELP
DIG THE EASTERN TROUGH ONCE AGAIN. IT IS THIS DIGGING INTO THE
EASTERN TROUGH OF THAT SYSTEM THAT BRING SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN THE
CONVECTION ON WEDNESDAY.

SO...HOW STRONG WILL THE CONVECTION BE? ONCE AGAIN... AS IT HAS BEEN
MORE TIMES THAN I WANT TO COUNT THIS SUMMER...THE JUXTAPOSITION OF
THE UPPER LEVEL JET...THE LOW LEVEL JET AND THE TIME OF DAY THIS ALL
HAPPENS IS VERY MUCH NOT OPTIMAL FOR SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS.
THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL JET ON BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS GO WELL TO
THE NORTH AND WEST OF MICHIGAN AND AS A RESULT WE DO NOT GET A
GOOD LOW LEVEL JET TO AID THE CAUSE OF A SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM
EVENT. LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT BUT
THIS LIKELY WILL NOT BRING RAIN TO ALL AREAS AND EVEN THOSE PLACES
THAT DO GET RAIN...LIKELY WILL NOT SEE ALL THAT MUCH (SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH TO FAST).

BEYOND THAT THE COLD AIR MOVES BACK IN AND THERE MAY BE COLD AIR
INSTABILITY SHOWERS THURSDAY OVER OUR NORTHEAST CWA. I DID NOT PLAY
THIS TO BIG JUST YET BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. ONE OTHER THING
TO NOTE... THE GFS HAS ALL SUMMER HAD A WARM BIAS ON THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THESE COLD FRONTS. MORE THAN LIKELY IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY FORECASTING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

GENERALLY MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT
(WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR ROUTE 10) . IT IS THAT SECONDARY COLD
FRONT THAT IS BOTH THE FOCUS FOR DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND CLEARING
OF THE LOW CLOUDS BEHIND IT. ALSO THE WEST WIND LAKE SHADOW IS
CLEARING ALL CLOUDS WEST OF US-31. I USED THE HRRR LOW 925 TO 850
MB RH AS A GUIDE TO CLEAR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS AND ALSO HELP DECIDE
JUST WHERE TO HAVE THE VCSH IN THE TAFS.

FOR THE MOST PART THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BY 21Z
AT ALL TAF SITES...THAT IS JUST FROM DAY TIME MIXING AND NOT
RELATED TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ACTUAL CLEARING OF THE CLOUDS
WILL BE BEHIND THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
00Z TO 03Z TIME FRAME. MKG SHOULD CLEAR SOON DUE TO THE LAKE
SHADOW MOVING INLAND.

THE CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL LARGELY STAY
EAST OF THE TAF SITES. THIS IS TYPICAL FOR WHAT HAPPENS WITH WEST
WINDS AT LOW LEVELS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. I DID HOWEVER PUT VCSH
AT LAN AND JXN TAF SITES JUST IN CASE SHOWERS MAKE IT A TOUCH
FARTHER WEST.

BUFKIT TIME SECTIONS AND THE NAMDNG5 FORECAST DO SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE FROM FOG AT THE EASTERN TAF SITES DUE TO LIGHT WINDS
...CLEAR SKIES BUT MY CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH GIVEN THERE IS
COLD ADVECTION GOING ON (HELP MIXING OUT THE FOG). LATE TAF
FORECAST MAY HAVE TO ADD FOG FOR THE EASTERN TAF SITES TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NO CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM. VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERALL
SHOULD SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY LAKE/LAND BREEZES AT THE LAKESHORE
WITH ONSHORE WINDS DURING THE DAY AND OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RECENT DRY CONDITIONS AND LITTLE EXPECTED RAINFALL HAS RESULTED
IN FALLING RIVER LEVELS. A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
BRIEF WITH THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD MOISTURE.

ALL RIVERS ARE WELL WITHIN BANKS AND THE STEADY OR FALLING TREND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL. A MID WEEK COLD
FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE RAIN CHANCES...BUT EVEN THESE TOTALS
SHOULD WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN REGARDS TO ANY HIGHLIGHTING AND
HYDRO ISSUES.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...TJT
SHORT TERM...TJT
LONG TERM...WDM
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...TJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

157 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

IT WILL FEEL LIKE THE DOG DAYS OF SUMMER AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE MIDDLE 80S TODAY WITH UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
NEXT WEEK AS WE WILL LIKELY PUSH TO OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN TODAY AND BRING WITH IT SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS NOT EXPECTED...IN FACT MANY
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. FAIR AND DRY WEATHER IS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
AREA.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

TRIMMED POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS BASED LARGELY ON THE LAST
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A CONSIDERABLE
SHIFT TO WESTERLY FLOW AT THE LAKESHORE...HERALDING THE APPROACH
OF THE STABLE MARINE LAYER OFF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS AND
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN SHOULD LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN. CLOUDINESS
SHOULD GRADUALLY ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THROUGH MADISON
WISCONSIN WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR DEEPER CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT REMAINS LIMITED. PLEASE SEE THE SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
TODAY AND THEN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE
WILL BE QUITE WARM.

AS FOR CONVECTION TODAY...IT LOOKS LESS AND LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH
EACH MODEL RUN. THE HRRR GUIDANCE IS ONLY SHOWING SCATTERED STORMS
AT BEST. THE LATEST RAP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WHICH IS MORE THAN ENOUGH...BUT OTHER
FACTORS LIMIT THE THREAT. THEY ARE NAMELY...THE MAIN SHORTWAVE IS
WELL NORTH OF THE AREA AND A WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY TEMPER
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT
STEEP EITHER...ON THE ORDER OF 5.5 C/KM. THE LLJ AND 850MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT HAVE TRENDED DOWN AS WELL. BOTTOM LINE...LOOKING FOR
SCATTERED STORMS TO DEVELOP MIDDAY AND WORK SOUTH/EAST OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ANY CHANCE OF A STRONG STORM WOULD
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON TOWARDS LAN/BTL/JXN.

OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
BEHIND THE WEAKENING COLD FRONT. AFTER TODAY WITH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT...SKIES SHOULD BE MAINLY CLEAR. THINKING WE WILL PUSH
INTO THE MID 80S TODAY...CLOUD COVER IS A BIT OF A CONCERN WHICH
COULD TREND THINGS EITHER SIDE OF THOSE NUMBERS. UPPER 80S LOOK
PRETTY SOLID FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY GIVEN 850MB TEMPS IN THE 17-19C
RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THE CHCS OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BE HOT AND HUMID WITH
LITTLE CHCS OF RAIN INITIALLY. WE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THIS UPPER RIDGE WITH HIGH HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT THE
HOT WEATHER AND WILL CAP THE ATMOSPHERE OFF FROM ANY PCPN FROM
OCCURRING. WE ARE LOOKING AT A GOOD CHANCE OF LOWER 90S ON TUE WITH
H850 TEMPS APPROACHING 20C.

THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH THE FRONT MID-WEEK. THE CONSENSUS OF THE CHC OF
SHOWERS/STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR TUE NIGHT INTO WED. SOME MODELS ARE A
LITTLE EARLIER...AND SOME ARE A LITTLE LATER. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE
A STRONG FEED OF GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. ENOUGH SHOULD BE
AROUND WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT TO BRING A DECENT CHC OF RAIN.

SEVERE CHCS ARE NOT LOOKING REAL STRONG AT THIS POINT. THERE DOES
LOOK TO BE A GOOD DEAL OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...ESPECIALLY DURING
PEAK HEATING ON WED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING A BIT WITH THE
BETTER WIND FIELDS LAGGING THE FRONT/STORMS A BIT. WE WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL AND THE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WE WILL SEE A COOL DOWN ALONG WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE THU AND
FRI TIME FRAME. WE WILL SEE A TROUGH OVER THE AREA EVENTUALLY GIVING
WAY TO A SFC RIDGE. NW FLOW ALOFT AND IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL COOL
US OFF A BIT. IT DOES NOT LOOK TOO COLD AT THIS TIME WITH H850 TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TEENS C.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 156 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WAVES OF 1 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING FROM GRAND HAVEN
NORTHWARD IN A ZONE WHERE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
BUILD WAVE HEIGHTS. WINDS LOOK A BIT DOWN FROM WHAT WE WERE SEEING
IN THE MODELS THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS...SO THE MORE WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4
FOOT WAVES LOOK LESS LIKELY.

AFTER THIS MORNING...QUIET WEATHER OUT ON THE BIG LAKE THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

RECENT DRY CONDTIONS AND LITTLE EXPECTED RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN
FALLING RIVER LEVELS. A FEW SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
WITH VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THIS MAY BE
BRIEF WITH THE LACK OF ANY WIDESPREAD MOISTURE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...WDM
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1255 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED FROM OSC TO MKG AND WILL MOVE THROUGH
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOULD GET THROUGH
MBS BY 20Z...FNT BY 21-22Z AND DTW BY 00Z THIS FRONT WILL BRING A
WINDOW OF LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE TSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THIS NARROW WINDOW OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN WHICH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH
COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL TSTORMS AS SIGNALS ARE POINTING TO
ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE. WILL INCLUDE A BRIEF 2 HOUR TEMPO TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS NARROW WINDOW OF POTENTIAL FOR PTK SOUTHWARD WITH
JUST SHOWERS FOR FNT/MBS DUE TO EARLIER TIMING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK TO THE
AREA ERODING THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH. WINDS HAVE BRIEFLY INCREASED FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT AS WIND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WITH
THE NEXT HIGH SETTLING IN.

FOR DTW...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK
HEATING...WARRANTING THE TEMPO FOR TSTORMS FROM 21-23Z. UPSTREAM OBS
AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL HOVER NEAR THE VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD BUT THINKING IS VFR WILL DOMINATE WITH MVFR BEING MORE
SCATTERED SO WILL FAVOR VFR WITH THE TAFS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE...

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 12Z
SOUNDING FOR DTX SUGGESTS ABOUT 1000 K/KG OF ML CAPE WITHOUT ANY
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MIXED LAYER. THERE IS SOME
POOLING OF THAT MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT GIVEN THE DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR EXTREME SE WI AND NRN IL. STILL
SOME QUESTION IF WE GET ALL OF THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REALIZE
2000 J/KG OF ML CAPE...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF AN INCREASE
TO GET IN THE 1500 J/KG NEIGHBORHOOD. WIND FIELDS MAY BE STRONGEST
THIS MORNING AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STILL MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION AND MAYBE ONE OR
TWO STORMS TO GET CLOSE TO SEVERE LIMITS. 00Z HI RES RUNS ALL
WERE BULLISH ON MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS NRN AND WC LOWER WHICH
WOULD HAVE IMPACTS ON ITS DEPICTION OF CONVECTION FOR SE LOWER.
THE LATER HRRR AND RAP/RUC CYCLES ARE A LITTLE BETTER AND CONTINUE
THE IDEA OF 16-20Z TIMING FOR THE TRI CITIES...18-22Z FOR THUMB TO
ARB AND 20-00Z FOR METRO DETROIT.

CLOUDS WERE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN. EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE AS THE LOWER SC LIFTS INTO A CU FIELD WHILE AREAS OF AC
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. END RESULT SHOULD BE ENOUGH
SUN TO REACH FORECAST HIGHS WHILE THERE WILL NOT BE TOO MUCH SUN
TO GO ANY HIGHER.

PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH LOWER MI TODAY BRINGING THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE PARENT LOW FOR THE FRONT IS
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE FRONT PIVOTS AROUND IT AND THROUGH THE
AREA. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON
AROUND 18-00Z...DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL OF COURSE FAVOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT AS SFC TEMPS REACH INTO THE LOW/MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS
LOOKING TO REACH 70. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE MAIN ADJUSTMENT COMING IN THE TIMING OF
THE PRECIP...ELIMINATING ALL POPS BEFORE 14Z AS THE LINE OF
CONVECTION IS STILL FAR TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL WI. DETAILS OF THE
SETUP TO FOLLOW...

THE UPPER LEVEL JET MAX HAS WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS THE MS RIVER AND
WILL REACH MID MI THIS MORNING. MODELS ALL SHOW THIS TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY FROM 100 KNOTS DOWN TO AROUND 70 KNOTS. THIS WILL
ALLOW DECENT SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH 0-3KM VALUES AROUND 25-30
KNOTS WHICH WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRY TO ORGANIZE SOME STORMS THAT CAN
DEVELOP. THIS WILL HELP COMPENSATE SOMEWHAT FOR THE LACK OF NOTABLE
FRONTAL FORCING ANYWHERE ALONG THE FRONT. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH
OF THE CONVECTIVE SEASON...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK TO BE VERY
WEAK ONCE AGAIN BUT LL LAPSE RATES WILL BE PRETTY GOOD AS SFC TEMPS
QUICKLY RISE INTO THE MID 80S ONCE AGAIN. CAPE WILL ALSO BE
FAVORABLE AS A CORRIDOR OF 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SLIDES THROUGH THE AREA. A FAIR VALUE LOOKS TO BE AROUND 1500-2000
J/KG AVAILABLE THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR ORGANIZED...POSSIBLE
STRONG TO SEVERE...STORMS WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
LOCATIONS AS THEY WILL HAVE SEVERAL ADDITIONAL HOURS OF HEATING TO
WORK WITH. IN ADDITION THERE APPEARS TO BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT OR
SHORTWAVE SLIDING IN THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY PROVIDE A LITTLE EXTRA
BOOST LATER IN THE DAY. FOR ANY ONE LOCATION THERE LOOKS TO BE
AROUND A 3-5 HOUR WINDOW WHERE THESE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
COULD IMPACT THEM. MBS WILL START EARLY IN THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AROUND 14Z...WHICH WILL LIMIT STRENGTH OF THESE
STORMS...WITH DTW HOLD OFF TIL CLOSER TO 18-20Z FOR A START TIME.
ALL ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PASS TO THE SOUTH/EAST BY 00Z. ANY ORGANIZED
STORM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 60 MPH GUSTS AND/OR LARGE
HAIL. SPC HAS SOUTHEAST LOWER MI INCLUDED IN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE FOR THE SETUP.

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS SPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL HELP EASE THE ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY WILL BE MORE NOTABLE
FOR A REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY RELATIVE TO TODAY...WITH NO REAL CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES. THE DRIER AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A HIGH DEGREE OF
SUNSHINE. THIS INSOLATION POTENTIAL INTO A DRIER AND MODESTLY MIXED
PROFILE FAVORS A GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RESPONSE...AND WILL
NUDGE HIGHS UP A COUPLE DEGREE ACCORDINGLY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
GOING FORECAST HOLDING FIRM WITH EXPECTATIONS THAT CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY THAT EMERGES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
THE BORDER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

PREDOMINANT SOUTHERN CONUS UPPER RIDGING WILL UNDERGO STEADY
AMPLIFICATION INTO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD.
THE ACCOMPANYING RISE IN MEAN THICKNESSES THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL
TRANSLATE INTO SEVERAL DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH. WARMEST
CONDITIONS CENTERED ON THE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIODS AS THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS PIVOTS OVERHEAD...850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO
THE 18 TO 20C RANGE DURING THIS TIME. THIS WILL SUPPORT READINGS IN
THE VICINITY OF 90 DEGREES BOTH DAYS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HAMPERED
BY THE INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LACK OF SUFFICIENT
FORCING BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE CENTERED
WITHIN THE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIODS...AS THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING WAVE LIFTING INTO
SOUTHERN CANADA ENTERS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. COOLER...OR A TRANSITION
BACK TOWARD NORMAL...TEMPERATURES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY. THIS FRONT
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL MARINE AREAS. MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT...SHIFTING TO NORTH
POST FRONT THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

AVIATION.....RBP
UPDATE.......RBP
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
HYDRO

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
TODAY AND THEN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE
WILL BE QUITE WARM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THE CHCS OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN THIS MORNING...TAKING
CONDITIONS BROKEN AT ALL TAF SITES. CEILINGS FOR THE MOST PART
WILL BE IN THE 3500-5000FT RANGE...BUT FOR A TIME FROM
15Z-18Z...KMKG AND KGRR WILL LIKELY GO MVFR WITH CEILINGS JUST
BELOW OR NEAR 3000FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE SLIDING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY AND
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED. AT
THIS POINT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE SOMEWHAT SPARSE AND THEREFORE ONLY
HAVE VCSH WORDING IN THE TAFS.

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ADDING ANOTHER FORECAST GROUP INTO THE 12Z TAFS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AFTER THIS MORNING...QUIET WEATHER OUT ON THE BIG LAKE THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1137 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NO FLOODING CONCERNS EXIST THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...JAM
MARINE...DUKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

1115 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
UPDATE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1101 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
TODAY AND THEN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE
WILL BE QUITE WARM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THE CHCS OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ADDING ANOTHER FORECAST GROUP INTO THE 12Z TAFS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AFTER THIS MORNING...QUIET WEATHER OUT ON THE BIG LAKE THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

RIVER LEVELS ARE FALLING AND ARE WELL BELOW BANKFULL. WITH UNDER
AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK... THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO
PONDING OF WATER... MAINLY SATURDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TJT
SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...

.AVIATION...ISSUED 603 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...AROUND 16Z FOR
MBS AND 21Z FOR DTW...BRINGING A WINDOW OF LOWER CIGS AND POSSIBLE
TSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BOTH BEFORE AND AFTER THIS
NARROW WINDOW OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IN WHICH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MAY
OCCUR. CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH COVERAGE OF POTENTIAL TSTORMS AS
SIGNALS ARE POINTING TO ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE. WILL INCLUDE A
BRIEF 2 HOUR TEMPO TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NARROW WINDOW OF POTENTIAL
FOR PTK SOUTHWARD WITH JUST SHOWERS FOR FNT/MBS DUE TO EARLIER
TIMING AND LESS INSTABILITY. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING DRIER AIR BACK TO THE AREA ERODING THE CLOUDS THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE
FROM THE SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL RELAX SOME OVERNIGHT AS
WIND SWITCH TO NORTHERLY WITH THE NEXT HIGH SETTLING IN.

FOR DTW...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE MOVING THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING
OF SATURDAY...WARRANTING THE TEMPO FOR TSTORMS FROM 20-22Z. UPSTREAM
OBS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CIGS WILL HOVER NEAR THE VFR/MVFR
THRESHOLD BUT THINKING IS VFR WILL DOMINATE WITH MVFR BEING MORE
SCATTERED SO WILL FAVOR VFR WITH THE TAFS.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOB 5KFT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 356 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ONCE THE FRONT PASSES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS FOR
THE OVERNIGHT BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS THE POST FRONTAL
AIRMASS IS SPORTING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S.

LONG TERM... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MARINE...

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......RBP
AVIATION.....DRK
SHORT TERM...DRK
LONG TERM....MR
MARINE.......MR

YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT (ALL LOWER CASE).

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

753 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
TODAY AND THEN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE
WILL BE QUITE WARM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THE CHCS OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 753 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS EVENING AND REMAIN THAT WAY OVERNIGHT.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF
ADDING ANOTHER FORECAST GROUP INTO THE 12Z TAFS.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AFTER THIS MORNING...QUIET WEATHER OUT ON THE BIG LAKE THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...DUKE
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
SYNOPSIS/SHORT TERM/LONG TERM/MARINE

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE RELATED TO SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
TODAY AND THEN TWEAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS WE
WILL BE QUITE WARM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

OUR MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THAT IS
EXPECTED DURING THE MID-WEEK TIME FRAME...AND THE CHCS OF CONVECTION
THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS QUIET...WITH A
SHORT PERIOD OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.

CONDITIONS ARE STARTING OUT VFR...AND WILL TREND TOWARD POSSIBLE
MVFR JUST AFTER DAYBREAK AT KMKG AS THE FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS
WILL ARRIVE. THIS BAND OF POSSIBLE SHOWERS AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
PUSH SE...AND COULD BECOME A FEW STORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF KGRR
THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS INDICATE THAT SRN AREAS WILL SEE LESS
OF A CHC OF MVFR CIGS.

WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO MOVE OUT BY 22Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH KJXN
SEEING IT LAST THE LONGEST. CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SHORTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

AFTER THIS MORNING...QUIET WEATHER OUT ON THE BIG LAKE THE REST OF
THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. WAVES OF 2 FEET OR LESS AND
WINDS LESS THAN 15 KNOTS SHOULD BE COMMON PLACE.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...DUKE
SHORT TERM...DUKE
LONG TERM...NJJ
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...DUKE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

WV IMAGERY RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PAC NW TO THE
GREAT LAKES ATOP A RIDGE OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE INITIAL
SHORTWAVE OR REMNANTS OF THE MCV FROM EARLIER TODAY THAT BROUGHT AN
AREA OF CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THROUGH UPPER MI HAS LIMITED
SFC HEATING AND KEPT MLCAPE VALUES AOB 500 J/KG. CLEARING WITH
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOWER 80S OVER THE WEST WITH MLCAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-
1000 J/KG RANGE OVER THE FAR WEST. A SHRTWV OVER NRN MN ALONG WITH A
COLD FRONT INTO NE MN SUPPORTED SCT SHRA WITH MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER.

EXPECT THAT THERE STILL WILL BE ENOUGH HEATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
OVER MUCH OF WRN UPPER MI TO BOOST MLCAPE VALUES TO AROUND 1K J/KG.
WITH THE COLD FRONT AND SHRTWV EDGING INTO UPPER MI DURING PEAK
HEATING...EXPECT SCT TSRA TO DEVELOP BTWN 21Z-00Z. 0-6KM SHEAR
VALUES IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...IF
THE THICKER CLOUD COVER SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA BEFORE THE FRONT
AND STRONGER FORCING WITH THE SHRTWV ARRIVES...TSRA COVERAGE AND
STRENGTH WILL BE SUPPRESSED. ANY REMAINING SHRA/TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE
CWA AFTER 06Z WITH CLEARING MOVING IN OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES EXPECTED. SUNSHINE AND MIXING WITH 850 MB TEMPS AROUND 16C
SUPPORT MAX READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S INLAND AND FOR LOCATIONS
FAVORED BY NW DOWNSLOPE FLOW.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE
WILL PERSIST FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FCST PD (SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY DRY. A FEW OF
THE MODELS GENERATE UP TO 500 J/KG OF MLCAPE SUN AFTERNOON MAINLY
OVER INLAND AREAS OF THE WEST HALF BUT FCST SNDGS LOOK TOO DRY TO
SUPPORT SHRA SO WL CONTINUE TO KEEP DRY FCST. WITH STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE RIDGE INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK...TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
UPPER MI WITH 8H TEMPS OF 18-20C ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
COULD BE ON TUESDAY WHEN 8H TEMPS CLIMB TO 20-22C. HOW WARM THE HIGH
TEMPS GET WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER SPREADING IN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS. IF WE GET
ENOUGH SUNSHINE...IT/S CERTAINLY POSSIBLE A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE
WEST HALF OF UPPER MI COULD REACH THE LOW 90S ON TUESDAY. GFS IS
MOST AGGRESSIVE OF MODELS KICKING OFF WAA SHRA AS EARLY AS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONSENSUS OF MODELS DEPICT DRIER CONDITIONS
UNDER RIDGING INTO TUESDAY SUGGESTING GFS SOLN IS AN OUTLIER. MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA NEXT WEEK WILL BE TUE
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS PROPELS A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI. LAYER PWATS
NEARLY TWO INCHES AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG WITH MLCAPES OF 800-1500
J/KG WOULD INDICATE T-STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN TUE NIGHT INTO EARLY WED. FRONT EXITING EAST OF THE REGION WILL
ALLOW LINGERING CONVECTION OVER ERN CWA TO END BY WED AFTERNOON.

LATE WED AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...MODELS DEPICT SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WED NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE FOR DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS PERIOD.

FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS SCNTRL CANADA WILL PUSH
ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MOISTURE WILL DEFINITELY BE MORE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM
AS MODELS SHOW ABSENCE OF GULF MOISTURE CONNECTION. 8H THERMAL RIDGE
OF 18-20C AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY
PROVIDED CLOUDS DON`T MOVE IN TOO EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MLCAPES
OF GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG AND NEGATIVE SHOWALTER INDICES WILL
WARRANT THUNDER MENTION.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
TRIGGER SCT SHRA/TSRA AT KSAW. OTHERWISE...POTENTIAL FOR SHRA/TSRA
HAS ENDED AT KIWD AND KCMX. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS REST OF
THE NIGHT IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AT ALL THE TAF SITES BUT DRY AIR
SWEEPING IN THIS MORNING WILL QUICKLY SCOUR OUT ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
RETURN CONDITIONS TO VFR. ONLY OTHER ISSUE FOR REST OF THE DAY WILL
BE GUSTY WEST WINDS POSSIBLY OVER 20 KTS AT KCMX.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE LAKE LATE TONIGHT...WINDS WILL
SHIFT WRLY 15-20KTS FOR SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES SAT NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TUE KEEPING WINDS
GENERALLY BELOW 15KTS. ANY FOG OVER LAKE IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SATURDAY.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...VOSS
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

158 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

NAM SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TOPPING A 500 MB RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.
WITH A TROUGH IN THE WESTERN U.S. AND A SHORTWAVE IN THE DAKOTAS 00Z
SUN. THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST ON SUN AND HAS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
MOVING IN FOR MON. WILL HAVE IT DRY INTO THE FORECAST INTO MONDAY
BEFORE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE COULD KICK SOMETHING OFF MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. OVERALL...DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY
CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED...GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A 500 MB TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES 12Z TUE WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES ON WED
WITH A SFC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS
IS OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES 12Z THU WITH UPPER TROUGHING REMAINING
INTO FRI. THIS WILL BRING A COOLING TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES
STARTING OUT ABOVE NORMAL ON TUE COOLING TO BELOW NORMAL ON THU AND
FRI. WITH THE TROUGHING REMAINING OVER THE AREA...HARD TO RULE OUT
PCPN AND HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THROUGH WED AND THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ON THU AND FRI WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS AROUND.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 419 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...07
AVIATION...JLA
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND RAPIDS MI

146 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

LATEST UPDATE...
AVIATION

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

AN APPROACHING WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED AND MOST OF THIS TIME PERIOD
WILL BE DRY AND VERY WARM. HOT AND INCREASINGLY HUMID WEATHER WILL
DEVELOP SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

UPSTREAM TRENDS SUGGEST IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 5 OR 6 AM FOR
ANY SHOWERS TO GET IN HERE... AND THE THUNDER RISK LOOKS RATHER
LIMITED UNTIL AFTER 11 AM SATURDAY BASED ON LATEST RAP MU CAPE
PROGS. HAVE ADJUSTED POP/WX/SKY GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST
TRENDS AND SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

PRIMARY SHORT TERM FCST CONCERNS INVOLVE ASSESSMENT OF CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL VERY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR TO NW OF A LINE FROM KGRR TO KMOP
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z SATURDAY AS SUGGESTED BY 12Z NSSL WRF
GUIDANCE. THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN AN AXIS OF INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

SEVERE WX IS NOT ANTICIPATED LATE TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR... WEAK INSTABILITY AND WEAK FORCING FROM THE FRONT. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SATURDAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH DAYTIME HEATING.

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS MAINLY OVER OUR SE FCST AREA SATURDAY NEAR TO SE OF KGRR.
OVERALL THOUGH LACK OF STRONGER FORCING... RELATIVELY WEAK
INSTABILITY AND FAIRLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARE ALL MITIGATING
FACTORS. INSTABILITY WILL ALSO LIKELY BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT BY MORNING
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.

FAIR WX WILL RETURN SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THERE IS JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OVER OUR SW FCST AREA BUT A
CONSENSUS OF SHORTER TO MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MOST
IF NOT ALL PCPN SUNDAY NIGHT WILL STAY SW TO SOUTH OF OUR FCST AREA.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DRY AND FAIR WX WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER AN ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWER OR TWO MAY DEVELOP FROM MID TO LATE AFTN THROUGH
EARLY EVE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN FCST AREA COINCIDENT WITH MAX
INSTABILITY FROM DAYTIME HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING A STRONGER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT WHEN THE FRONT COMES
THROUGH...AND ELEVATED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS. BETTER THAN
40 KNOTS OF SHEAR ARE SHOWN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS PERIOD
FOR STORMS...MAINLY TUE NIGHT INTO WED NIGHT.

CONTINUES TO LOOK WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR TEMPERATURES GOING INTO WED.
850 MB TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S SUPPORT AT LEAST
MID 80S FOR HIGHS. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT
SUGGESTS A COOLER THAN NORMAL END OF THE WEEK.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 146 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE BEGINNING AND END OF THE FCST PERIOD LOOKS QUIET...WITH A
SHORT PERIOD OF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG WITH SOME MVFR POSSIBLE
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD.

WE EXPECT THE PCPN TO MOVE OUT BY 22Z AT ALL TERMINALS WITH KJXN
SEEING IT LAST THE LONGEST. CLOUDS WILL THEN CLEAR OUT SHORTLY
AND WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.MARINE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BRIEFLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS POTENTIALLY REACHING 2 TO 4 FEET. HOWEVER CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT/BEACH HAZARDS CRITERIA. WAVE
HEIGHTS AND WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE LIGHT WITH
WAVE HEIGHTS MAINLY AOB 2 FT.

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MEADE
SYNOPSIS...LAURENS
SHORT TERM...LAURENS
LONG TERM...MJS
AVIATION...NJJ
HYDROLOGY...63
MARINE...LAURENS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

1056 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BAND OF ENHANCED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC
TROUGH THAT STRETCHED FROM ABOUT MARSHALL DOWN TOWARD MASON CITY.
CAMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
THIS BOUNDARY ALL DAY...AND RADAR CONFIRMS THAT THAT IS INDEED
HAPPENING RIGHT NOW. FOLLOWING THE IDEA OF THE CAMS...THIS LOOKS TO
BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...SO CARRIED AN ISO THUNDER WORDING IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL ABOUT SUNSET.

FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY...AS
ALL OF THE CAMS AND THE ECMWF ARE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH THAT
SAID...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF OUTSIDE CHANCES FOR SEEING PRECIP
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RATHER THAN PLASTER LOW END POPS ACROSS A
LARGE SWATH OF THE AREA WHEN MOST PEOPLE WILL NOT SEE
ANYTHING...OPTED TO GO DRY. THE TWO AREAS TO WATCH THOUGH FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WOULD BE FAR ERN MN INTO WRN WI AND FAR WRN MN LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. FOR THE MN/WI BORDER AREA...THEY WILL BE ON THE ERN EDGE
OF A MID-LEVEL WARM BUBBLE AND CAP AND WE COULD SEE A SHOWER OR TWO
POP HERE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT WITH NO FORCING MECHANISM...FAVORED
A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR FAR WRN MN LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...THEIR
CHANCE WILL COME AS THE LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT STARTS
TO PICK UP IN STRENGTH ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. WE COULD SEE ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOP IN THE LLJ DURING THE AFTERNOON THAT MAY SNEAK
INTO WRN MN LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
PRECIP CHANCES TO REALLY START RAMPING UP UNTIL 3Z AND LATER ON
TUESDAY...WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN MORE DETAIL IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE WARM FRONT LIFT NORTH THROUGH IOWA...WE WILL
HAVE MOIST ESE WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS IS A CLIMATOLOGICALLY
FAVORED DIRECTION FOR DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS AND FOG. SREF PROBS FOR
CIGS UNDER 3K FT DO SHOW THIS POTENTIAL FOR ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
MN RIVER. THROUGH 9Z...THE HRRR SHOWS THE REGION BEING STRATUS
FREE...BUT THE 0-1KM RAP CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS /CPD/ GET
QUITE LOW IN SOUTH CENTRAL MN...SO WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF FOLKS
DOWN ALONG I-90 WAKE UP TO 1-2 MILE VSBYS AND 300 FOOT CIGS MONDAY
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH TO OUR NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
PASS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...THEN BECOME A CLOSED OFF LOW
OVER AS IT MOVES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AND
INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA ON TUESDAY. THIS LOW IS
HIGHLY ANOMALOUS FOR LATE JULY WITH 150-160 METER 12HR 500MB
HEIGHT FALLS ALONG THE BORDER AND 180-200 METER FALLS NORTH OF THE
BORDER TUESDAY NIGHT...IT LOOKS MORE LIKE A SPRING/WINTER UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...THE BEST SEVERE THREAT IS NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FORECAST...HOWEVER...LOCALLY WE EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. LIFT
WILL ACCOMPANY THE APPROACHING TROUGH ALONG WITH A NOCTURNALLY
FAVORED TIME FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A LLJ/WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME ON MONDAY NIGHT. PWATS THAT APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF
MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE 925-700MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...WE
COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT THE VERY LEAST
CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN THE UPPER 80S
CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE
IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS SOLID
BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS
ARE NORTH OF THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI AS
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WE ALSO THINK
WEDNESDAY COULD BRING W-NW WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40MPH IN THE COOL
ADVECTION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO
GRADUALLY MODERATE BY FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE ARE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1055 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AN AREA
OF SCATTERED CIRRUS IS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI...BUT THIS WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE
STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 09Z...ALONG WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND AN INVERSION DEVELOPING NEAR THE
SURFACE...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR AREA AFTER
09Z...ESPECIALLY AT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS OF EAU AND
STC. ALSO...MANY SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW
STRATUS DECK OVER IOWA...WHICH COULD MOVE THROUGH SW MN AND IMPACT
RWF ON MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SOME SCATTERED STORMS COULD DEVELOP IN
THE EVENING IN WESTERN MN AROUND RWF AND AXN...BUT WILL JUST
INCLUDE VCTS FOR NOW SINCE CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/PLACEMENT OF
STORMS IS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

KMSP...VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SOME PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY...BUT VISIBILITY WILL NOT
LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY...WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 15 KTS
BY THE AFTERNOON. SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE THE END OF THE
PERIOD IS LOW AT THE MOMENT.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN MN WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH SUNSET...AND VFR CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW...AND A
DEVELOPING INVERSION COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME PATCHY
FOG/LOW STRATUS ACROSS OUR REGION BY THE EARLY MORNING MONDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE EAU TERMINAL FROM
10-13Z...WHERE WINDS COULD GO CALM UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
AND CLIMATOLOGY FAVORS FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS LOCATION. SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A COUPLE MODELS
HAVE SHOWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL MN BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE ANY MENTION IN THE TAFS.

KMSP...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE TO BELOW 5 KTS OVERNIGHT
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. PATCHY FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT AROUND
SUNRISE...BUT CHANCES OF SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY REDUCTION REMAIN
LOW FOR NOW. SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10-15
KTS BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...AND VFR IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL WITH CLOUD COVER GRADUALLY INCREASING BY MONDAY EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR WITH IFR/MVFR PSBL IN TSRA. WINDS S BCMG SW 10-20 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20G30KTS.
THU...VFR. WINDS W 10-15 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...ADL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN

416 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A COUPLE OF MCVS FROM CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE DAY OVER SODAK ARE
NOW DRIFTING OVER MN...BUT ENCOUNTERING DRY HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC
AS THEY DO SO...SO THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PRODUCE LITTLE MORE THAN
AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER CLOUDS. THE AREA TO WATCH THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH IS CENTRAL SODAK OUT BY MILLER AND CHAMBERLAIN WHERE SEVERAL
SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS ARE LINING UP. THIS REGION IS ALSO AT THE
EDGE OF A CAPPING EML. CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION AROUND 21/22Z AND WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERE GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS. H85 THETA-E GRADIENT...H7
THERMAL FIELDS AND H85-H3 THICKNESSES ALL POINT TO THIS ACTIVITY
BUILDING SE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WORKING DOWN TO OR EVEN SW OF DES
MOINES THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR THE MPX CWA IS THAT WE
ARE LIKELY TO GET NOTHING MORE THAN A GRAZING FROM THIS
ACTIVITY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEEING RAIN BEING SW OF THE MN
RIVER IN SW INTO SC MN. THIS IDEA IS GENERALLY SUPPORTED BY THE NSSL-
WRF AND THE HOP-WRF MEMBERS. THE HRRR SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR AS
WELL...THOUGH THINK IT BRINGS ACTIVITY TOO FAR NORTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

FOR THE MPX AREA...OUR BEST SHOT AT SEEING PRECIP TONIGHT WILL BE
WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION THAT MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK
SOME ACCUS TYPE ACTIVITY IN WRN MN...BUT WITH THE AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO HEAD FOR IOWA...DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT UP HERE.

FOR SUNDAY...CONFIDENCE IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE THAT WE WILL NOT
SEE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL WITH DEWPS INCREASING BACK INTO
THE 70S FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE MPX CWA...FORCING WILL BE DECIDEDLY
LACKING. THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR US IS THAT IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY TO
OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...WE WILL HAVE RISING H5
HEIGHTS ALL DAY. IN ADDITION TO THAT...ANY SORT OF WEAK/DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT WILL REMAIN DOWN IN IOWA...SO WE WILL NOT HAVE THAT TO HELP
WITH FORCING DEEP CONVECTION EITHER. IN THE END...RETAINED SOME 30
POPS OR LESS...BUT TRIMMED THAT MENTION DOWN TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE MN RIVER. IN GENERAL THOUGH...SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE A GOOD...THOUGH
WARM/HUMID SUMMER DAY ACROSS THE MPX CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH MONDAY IS THAT OF
BUILDING HEIGHTS AND THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS THAT SHOULD LINGER INTO TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TUESDAY IS COMPLICATED BY THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
THE MAIN SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON MONDAY. LOCALLY MN/WI BE SITTING UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE
WITH A MOIST SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BL FLOW BUT NO PRONOUNCED TRIGGER
FOR CONVECTION. 700MB TEMPS AREN`T OVERLY WARM...SO THE CAPPING
ISN`T OVERLY STRONG...THIS IS WHY WE THINK THE GFS TRIES TO
INITIATE CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST ARE ON MONDAY. THE NAM/ECMWF
ARE DRIER IN MID-LEVELS...SO WE THINK THE POP SHOWERS SHOULD BE
LIMITED MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT IMPOSSIBLE EITHER.

ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING A WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
INTO THE AREA. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT AS IT LIFTS THROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE
ELEVATED BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HOWEVER...PWATS THAT
APPROACH 2" - 2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE - A 13500FT WARM LAYER - AND
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR VECTORS...SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND THE
THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST HAZARD. THE
925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT LEANS OVER THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...WE COULD KEEP SHOWERS/STORMS MOST OF THE DAY AND AT
THE VERY LEAST CLOUD COVER COULD MEAN HIGHS ARE CLOSER TO 80 THAN
THE UPPER 80S CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST. THE SPEED OF THE WARM
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IS SOLID BY TUESDAY MORNING AT LEAST OFF TODAY`S MODEL
RUNS. THE PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH AND BEST DYNAMICS ARE NORTH OF
THE AREA. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD FINALLY CLEAR THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING IN LESS HUMID AIR WED-FRI.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER WAVE MOVING IN FROM THE DAKOTAS ATOP HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE TWIN CITIES WILL RESULT IN NOT MUCH MORE THAN MID/UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AS LIGHT WINDS
CONTINUE OUT OF THE SSE. EXPECT SEVERE TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON OVER CENTRAL SODAK THAT WILL THEN TRACK ESE TOWARD NRN
IOWA...BUT COULD CLIP RWF...SO LEFT A VCSH MENTION OUT THERE
BETWEEN 4Z AND 10Z.

KMSP...NO POTENTIAL WEATHER CONCERNS UNTIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN
A SMALL THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXISTS. WE WILL HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...BUT WILL BE
LACKING FORCING WITH HEIGHTS BUILDING AND ANY SORT OF DIFFUSE WARM
FRONT REMAINING TO THE SOUTH...SO KEPT MSP PRECIP MENTION FREE
THIS TAF PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA LATE. WINDS SE 5-10 KTS.
TUE...MAINLY VFR. CHC MVFR/IFR IN TSRA. WINDS S 10-15 KTS.
WED...VFR. WINDS W 15-20 KTS.

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MPG
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...MPG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1145 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE:
ISSUED AT 934 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

WEATHER LOOKS PRETTY TRANQUIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THE CLUSTER OF STORMS
WHICH REGENERATED OVER CENTRAL MO EARLY THIS EVENING HAS REMAINED
WELL TO THE WEST, TRACKING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT AND LARGELY STEERED BY NORTHERLY CLOUD LAYER FLOW. THE THREAT
OF ADDITIONAL STORMS OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE PRIMARLY AFTER 200-300
AM. THE COMBINATION OF SUBTLE WEAK MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES TRACKING
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ALOFT ALONG WITH WEAK LOW-LEVEL
WAA AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE, SUPPORT A THREAT OF POTENTIALLY
MAINTAINING A FEW OF THE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST IA/NW MO, BUT
MORE LIKELY NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHEAST MO INTO CENTRAL
MO.

GLASS

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

MCS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE CAPE GRADIENT DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS IS ALSO IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS THE
FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AHEAD OF IT AT KCOU ARE SHOWING INVERTED-V PROFILES. THE
LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS WHICH SHOWS MLCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG
AND 0-6KM SHEAR NEAR 40KTS. HAVE INCREASE POPS EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER THE EASTERN OZARKS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN MISSOURI. HAVE ALSO KEPT CHANCES OVER NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SHOWING A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
ASCENT, AND THE RAP IS SHOWING AND INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. GOING TEMPERATURES
LOOK GOOD FOR LOWS.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THUNDERSTORM TRENDS REMAIN THE KEY QUESTION FOR THE WEEKEND. HAVE
BASICALLY ONLY TWEAKED THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT`S POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS BREAKS DOWN TO 30-50% CHANCES FOR THE ENTIRE AREA SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGHER DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI SHOULD OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA PUSHING CAPE
VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION TO FIRE THOUGH COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO A DECENT CAP.
NOT OVERLY IMPRESSED WITH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR, BUT WITH THE HIGH
INSTABILITY THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO BE CONCERNED WITH MULTI-
CELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS.

TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY ARE UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE`LL GET WARM ENOUGH TO
REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI WHERE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED. WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS FOR SATURDAY FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105. ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED IF STORMS DO NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...OR
POSSIBLY DROPPED IF THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS GREATER THAN
EXPECTED.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR
STORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF OF
SATURDAY WITH THE SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY CONTINUING TO BE REINFORCED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD BE WANING QUICKLY THOUGH
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. THINK THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
AREA SHOULD BE DRY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR STORMS.

CARNEY

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREV TAFS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF TS AT
UIN NEAR SUNRISE AS ONGOING ACTIVITY SHUD BE NEAR THE REGION THEN.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WHAT COVERAGE WILL BE WHEN IT ARRIVES AND HAVE
THEREFORE KEPT ONLY VC MENTION FOR NOW. STORMS OVER NW MO IS
CURRENTLY TIMED INTO COU AREA AROUND 09Z AND HAVE ADDED TO THE
TAF. A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IF THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE
FURTHER E THAN COU...OR IF THEY WILL FOR SURE EVEN MAKE IT THAT
FAR E. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED VC MENTION DURING THE AFTN HRS AT
SUS/CPS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HAVE KEPT TAF DRY THRU MORNING HRS.
HOWEVER...ONGOING STORMS OVER NW MO MAY CONTINUE AS FAR E AS
TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...HAVE ADDED VC MENTION DURING THE AFTERNOON
HRS AS BEST TIMES OF IMPACTING THE TERMINAL.

TILLY

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-MONITEAU MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-REYNOLDS MO-
WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL OF A CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...IMPACTING
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS WITH SUPPORT FROM THE 25.18Z NAM
CURRENTLY SUGGESTS A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH
BETTER THAN 40-45KTS OF DEEP SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION. IN
ADDITION...THE OPERATIONAL EMC RAP INDICATES ONLY A WEAK CAP
PRESENT. BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE GUIDANCE HOLDS OFF CONVECTION UNTIL
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WHEN LOWER
TROPOSPHERIC WAA PROMOTES UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SD INTO A MCS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE A CONCERN IF THE
SOLUTION VERIFIES AS PWATS INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 1.75" ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. ELEVATED CAPE OVERNIGHT REMAINS MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...SO HAIL AND WIND WOULD BE A CONCERN AS WELL.

THERE ARE ADDITIONAL HINTS AT CONVECTION ALONG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS
THE PANHANDLE...WHICH MAY DRIFT EAST INTO THE SANDHILLS REGION THIS
EVENING. ONCE AGAIN...SUFFICIENT CAPE AND SHEAR WOULD PROMOTE
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY CAP
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.

STORM CHANCES ARE SLIGHT FOR SUNDAY...WITH ONLY A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE AND POSSIBLY WESTERN
SANDHILLS WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES...2000-3000 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND
30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO EXIST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL KICK OFF STORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...LEAVING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES A RETURN OF LOWER TO MID-90S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER APPARENT TEMPERATURES
ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH CRITERIA ACROSS OUR ZONES. WILL MONITOR.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN LOCATED IN THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
SUNDAY EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KTS WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WEST OF VTN THROUGH BBW.
DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT BTWN THE NAM AND GFS...INCREASED POPS TO
30-40 PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A FOCUS FOR STORMS AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCE TRACK NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
WORK INTO THE NWRN HALF OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. A FEW STRONG
STORMS AGAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL AND EASTERN ZONES.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SERN ZONES. MODELS HAVE
TRENDED FASTER WITH THE FRONT...SO LOWER HIGHS A FEW DEGREES AND
MOVED POPS FURTHER SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. A RETURN OF
MOISTURE IN NW FLOW ALOFT TO BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE BY
THURSDAY...FRIDAY...AND SATURDAY. COVERAGE HOWEVER LOOKS ISOLATED
AT BEST.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 92 TO 98 MONDAY...COOLING TO LOWER
80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THEN MID 80S
WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 90S
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED IN THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN
CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THAT
BEING SAID...A FEW SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST OF
KLBF...WITH A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OVER KONL. ATTM THE BEST
FOCUS OF ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO LIE TO THE EAST OF
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN THIS AFTERNOON. EASTERN TERMINALS SUCH AS
KANW...KONL...AND/OR KBBW MAY SEE A STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A 1/4SM
FOG AT KVTN AFTER 09Z SUNDAY MORNING...THIS WAS DISCOUNTED FOR
NOW...BUT WILL BE MONITORED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...JACOBS
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

1215 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

LAST EVENINGS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX ABOUT TO PUSH EAST OF THE CWA AT
08Z WITH STRONGEST CLUSTER OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA. 06Z RAP DOWNPLAYS CONVECTION FOR THE MORNING
PERIOD COMPARED TO NAM OR GFS WITH LATTER MODELS FOCUSING ON A
COMPLEX COMING OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE RAP TREND
THIS MORNING UNLESS NEW DEVELOPMENT INTENSIFIES TO THE WEST...WITH
POPS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SOME SMALL
CHANCE OF MAINLY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY BUT WARM MID LEVELS AND STRONGER FLOW TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT.

CLOUDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN TODAY. WARMER TEMPS RETURN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY ALTHOUGH WITH NO SURFACE FRONT IN THE AREA WILL BE LIMITED
TO THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO COME INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF STORMS FOR THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. SOUTH PARTS OF THE AREA COULD SEE
HOT TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT ON TUESDAY.
SOME LINGERING PRECIP IN THE FAR SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE FRONT
PUSHES FURTHER SOUTH. DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS CANADA WILL DIG
A TROUGH IN THE EAST AND RETROGRADE UPPER HIGH CENTER BACK TO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE NATION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME.

.AVIATION...(18Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL MAKING THEIR WAY
THROUGH KOMA AT 18Z. CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF PRECIP ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT FOG AT KOFK EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE AT
ALL SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS NEAR KOFK. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE
REMAINS VERY LOW AS TO WHEN AND WHERE THEY WILL DEVELOP. THEREFORE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION AND UPDATE AS NEEDED

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...KG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

624 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(12Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS/VISBY POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA. TIMING
AND LOCATION OF ANY SHRA/TSRA ARE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN ATTM...THUS
HAVE LEFT PRECIP OUT OF THE TAFS. ONCE TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA
BECOMES MORE CERTAIN THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED. THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO APPEARS THAT ANY RA ACTIVITY WOULD OCCUR THIS EVNG INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE WE WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL OF MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...BOUSTEAD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS OMAHA/VALLEY NE

251 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL REVOLVE AROUND HOW WELL MODELS HANDLE CONVECTIVE
EVENTS TODAY AND TONIGHT...THEN TEMPERATURES AS UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS REGION.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 208 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(06Z TAFS FOR KOFK...KLNK AND KOMA.)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LINE OF POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS IS JUST WEST OF KLNK...SHOULD
IMPACT THAT LOCATION 05-06Z. STORMS SHOULD REACH KOMA BY 06-07Z.
WILL FORECAST A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF STORMS...THEN LINGERING SHOWERS
THAN COULD LAST UNTIL 10-12Z. STILL THINKING THAT KOFK MAY BE TOO
FAR NORTH TO GET ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST ROUND. SHOULD SEE NEW
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE TAF PERIOD...18-23Z AT
KOFK...AND 20-03Z AT KLNK/KOMA.

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...FOBERT
LONG TERM...FOBERT
AVIATION...DEWALD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BUFFALO NY

329 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY IN
A HUMID AIR MASS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND WEAK SURFACE
FRONT CROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-
WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO EASE THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING THE NORTH COUNTRY.
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY SLOWLY
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES NUDGING 1000
J/KG. AT THIS TIME JUST SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE LAKE ERIE LAKE SHADOW ACROSS NIAGARA COUNTY. EXPECT WE
WILL SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EAST AND SOUTH OF THE
LAKE SHADOW THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.

MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOTED ACROSS SOUTHERN ONTARIO AHEAD OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF AND PUSH INTO THE SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEY AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY BY LATE
AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY HOLDING TOGETHER
FARTHER SOUTH OVER LAKE ONTARIO.

TONIGHT...EXPECT THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY AS THE WEAK FRONT
CROSSES THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...CLOSEST TO THE CORE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
FORCING WILL BECOME MORE DIFFUSE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WITH FORCING RELYING MAINLY ON WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE FRONT. THIS HAS BEEN HINTED AT FOR
SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR AND WRF.

THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE
WEAK FRONT PASSES AND DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SURFACE DEWPOINT
REMAINING IN THE 60S. THIS WILL MAINTAIN OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S.

A TEMPORARY DIP IN THE UPPER HEIGHT FIELDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL HELP EASE THE ATTENDANT WEAK FRONT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
SUNDAY. POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT SUNDAY WILL BE FOR A SLIGHT
REDUCTION IN HUMIDITY RELATIVE TO TODAY...WITH NO REAL CHANGE
EXPECTED IN THE TEMPERATURES. THE SLIGHTLY DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES THROUGH WILL TRANSLATE INTO A
HIGH DEGREE OF SUNSHINE. THIS INSOLATION POTENTIAL INTO A DRIER
AND MODESTLY MIXED PROFILE FAVORS A GREATER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE
RESPONSE...AND WILL BRING HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY
FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT EMERGES SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HOWEVER WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER FEEL SOME SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION...ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF
EXPECTED LAKE ERIE LAKE BREEZE.

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS PERIOD...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
INITIALLY ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...WHILE A
BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST IN BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SLOWLY DRIFTING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES INTO THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

FOR THE VAST MAJORITY OF OUR AREA...THE ABOVE WILL RESULT IN
QUIET AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE ONE POTENTIAL
EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY AND SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHERE THE
COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING...MOISTURE POOLING NORTHEAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO...AND A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH THE
PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION. WITH MORE OF THE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SUITE LATCHING ONTO THIS IDEA OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...HAVE UPPED POPS FOR THIS REGION/TIMEFRAME UP INTO THE
UPPER PART OF THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF
AVERAGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOW WARMING OF OUR AIRMASS
SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ON
MONDAY...AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S SUNDAY NIGHT WARMING
A COUPLE OF DEGREES OR SO FOR MONDAY NIGHT. SUCH READINGS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATELY HUMID CONDITIONS...AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE 60S.

AFTER THAT...THE AXIS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE THROUGH
MIDWEEK...WHILE THE AXIS OF ITS PARENT 594 DM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW YORK STATE...IN ADVANCE
OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. AS A
RESULT...OUR REGION WILL COME UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS/INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WITH THE COMBINATION OF
THESE FACTORS LEADING TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY LEVELS STEADILY RISING
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

WITH 850 MB TEMPS CLIMBING TO BETWEEN +17C AND +18C TUESDAY AND
TO THE +19C TO +21C RANGE WEDNESDAY PER A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS/ECMWF... DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH INTO THE 85-90
RANGE AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY AND TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S IN
MOST PLACES ON WEDNESDAY...WHEN SOME OF OUR NORMALLY WARMER SPOTS
IN THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES COULD EVEN SEE MERCURY
LEVELS REACH AS HIGH AS THE MID 90S. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 60S BY LATER
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE SUCH READINGS WOULD
REMAIN SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...SUCH WARMTH AND HUMIDITY
WILL STILL EASILY MAKE FOR DOWNRIGHT OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS.

IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WHILE A STRAY POP-UP SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OF OUR INCREASINGLY HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS THAT GENERAL LARGE-
SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND THE LACK OF AN APPRECIABLE TRIGGER SHOULD
KEEP OUR WEATHER MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EARLY ON IN THIS PERIOD...THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE NEXT MID LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA...WHILE PUSHING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION BETWEEN LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN THE
PROCESS...THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HOT AND STICKY ANTECEDENT
AIRMASS THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS OUR REGION.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE AND
COOLER/DRIER AIR THEN LOOKS TO BUILD EAST ACROSS OUR REGION
BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY...WHILE USHERING IN A RETURN
TO DRY WEATHER AND MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
LEVELS.

FINALLY AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEKEND...MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH A LITTLE BUMP
UPWARD IN TEMPERATURES AGAIN AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR GETS ADVECTED
INTO OUR REGION IN ADVANCE OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SCATTERED -SHRA CONTINUE TO TRACK ESE ACROSS CNY AS A WARM FRONT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF
ALL TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON.

MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE
MAY GENERATE MORE WIDESPREAD -SHRA/TSRA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY...CLOSER TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF FROM W-E AFTER 06Z WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND FROM THE LAKES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR.

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS OUR
NEARSHORE AREAS...BUT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS MONDAY WITH GENERALLY CALM CONDITIONS
PERSISTING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WEEK.

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

1036 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. UNSETTLED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND STALLS NEAR THE
AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY PUSH WESTWARD AND INTO THE DRIER AIR.
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND THE COLUMN UNDERGOES
FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ONTO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BRIEFLY COMING ASHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT LOCATIONS.

DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN CREEPING HIGHER FROM E TO W AS THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY IN ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL SERVE AS A
FLOOR...KEEPING TEMPS OVERNIGHT HIGHER THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS.
ALSO...WITH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS CONTINUING...WE SHOULD
SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. INLAND MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MOST
CONDUCIVE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS NEAR SUNRISE. WE ARE
FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY HIGH CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER ACROSS
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE N AND W TONIGHT. LOWER CLOUDS WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH
OFFSHORE/COASTAL SHOWERS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A
LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT IT
WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON LOCAL CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OFF EASTERN
CONUS WHILE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE STAYS GENERALLY EASTERLY. THIS
SETUP WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE READINGS BETWEEN BOTH DAYS. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS INTRODUCED...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...SURFACE AND MID LEVEL RIDGING WED AND THU
WILL KEEP THE REGION MOSTLY FREE OF PRECIP. MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED EACH AFTERNOON BUT DO EXPECT THERE WILL BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WHICH WILL THEN PUSH
INLAND. LIMITED SUPPORT ALOFT AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP
COVERAGE IN THE SLIGHT CHANGE RANGE.

UNCERTAINTY LINGERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD WITH
RESPECT TO FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. PREVIOUSLY THE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE HAD BEEN CONSISTENT WITH STALLING THE
BOUNDARY ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST FROM
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE FRONT STALLING CLOSE TO THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION AREA WIDE EACH
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE INCREASES FOR THE WEEKEND AS 5H RIDGE RETREATS
WEST AND DEVELOPING 5H TROUGH CAUSES SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DEEP
MOISTURE SPREADS OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT WEEKEND WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATERS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES AT TIMES. INCREASED MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH MORE FAVORABLE MID LEVEL PATTERN PUSHES PRECIP CHANCES INTO
THE HIGH CHC RANGE LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF CLIMO THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS
THERE PARTICULARLY INLAND EVEN THOUGH RH`S ARE IN THE 30S RIGHT
NOW. BUFKIT SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS
WELL AS LIGHT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START
TO SET UP AFTER 07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. A QUICK
BURNOFF IS IN STORE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS
EXPECTED BY 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT WITH
SOME 4 FT SEAS THROUGH LATE EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A
WEAK 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MAY OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LEADING TO A SLIGHT SLACKING OF THE GRADIENT.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH
AND EAST WILL KEEP WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND EASTERLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH SEAS IN THE 2 TO 3 FT RANGE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE
OFF THE COAST WED INTO THU...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST ON THU. GRADIENT CHANGES LITTLE ON FRI AS WEAK
FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST STALLS WEST OF THE COAST. WIND
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD...EXCEPT ALONG
THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL CAUSE ONSHORE FLOW IN THE 10
TO 15 KT RANGE. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

800 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE MID WEEK. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEKEND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS NEAR THE AREA.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN LURKING OFFSHORE FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. THE SHOWERS HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE AS
THEY STRUGGLE AGAINST THE DRIER AIR AS THEY MOVE WESTWARD. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL SHOWS THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WILL SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WATERS AND
PERHAPS BRIEFLY SKIRTING THE BEACHES THROUGH DAYBREAK.

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODIFY THE MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS. THIS WILL SERVE AS A FLOOR...KEEPING TEMPS OVERNIGHT HIGHER
THAN IN RECENT NIGHTS. ALSO...WITH MOISTENING IN THE LOW LEVELS
CONTINUING...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP. INLAND
MOISTURE PROFILES ARE MOST CONDUCIVE FOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
NEAR SUNRISE. WE ARE FORECASTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY HIGH CLOUDS...WILL CONTINUE
TO FILTER ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS FROM THE N AND W TONIGHT.

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
PARTICULARLY INLAND EVEN THOUGH RH`S ARE IN THE 30S RIGHT NOW. BUFKIT
SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS WELL AS LIGHT
WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START TO SET UP AFTER
07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. A QUICK BURNOFF IS IN
STORE MONDAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED BY 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 800 PM SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BE E TO NE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT EARLY THEN 10 KT OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT WITH SOME 4 FT SEAS THIS
EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK 11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL
PERSIST.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MAY OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LEADING TO A SLIGHT SLACKING OF THE GRADIENT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...DL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1040 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED. ONLY A SMALL AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS...OVER GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES. KEPT HIGHER
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION THERE THROUGH MIDNIGHT CDT...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EARLIER CONVECTION AXIS.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO TAKE SEVERAL COUNTIES OUT OF THE WATCH. ALL
NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES ARE NOW OUT...AND TOOK OUT SOME WESTERN
COUNTIES. THOSE REMAINING IN THE WATCH UNTIL 10 PM CDT INCLUDE
MCLEAN...MERCER...OLIVER...MORTON...HETTINGER...GRANT.

CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY NORTH...AND EXPECT SOUTHERN
END OF LINE TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. HAD TO ADD SOME
MENTION OF CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EASTWARD INTO
SHERIDAN/WELLS/BURLEIGH/KIDDER...AS STORMS HOLDING TOGETHER. DO
NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS OUTSIDE THE WATCH AREA...EXCEPT PERHAPS FOR
ADAMS/SIOUX COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES FROM BOTTINEAU/ROLETTE
COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO BOWMAN COUNTY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
CONTINUES FOR THIS AREA AND EAST TO PIERCE/ROLETTE TO
MORTON/GRANT...BUT WILL ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE FOR SOME OF THE
WESTERN COUNTIES...NAMELY BURKE...MOUNTRAIL...MCKENZIE AND BILLINGS
COUNTIES.

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

BLENDED THE CURRENT POPS WITH THE HRRR ENSEMBLE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS OF 2 PM CDT THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INITIATED ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
BUFKIT 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A CAP IN PLACE SUNDAY AFTERNOON BIS-JMS
SO USED THIS AS THE EASTWARD EXTENT FOR THE CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 20Z WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS WEAK TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH NORTHEAST MONTANA WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW COMING ON
SHORE ACROSS WASH/OR. AS THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES PARALLEL WITH THE
COLD FRONT IT WILL ONLY MAKE IT THROUGH WEST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN LIKELY RETREAT TO THE NORTHWEST AS
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW BECOMES MORE PREDOMINANT LATE
TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LOW MOVING TO MONTANA BY MONDAY
MORNING. AS THIS HAPPENS THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT WILL
DIMINISH CENTRAL AND RETURN TO THE NORTHWEST.

ON MONDAY MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING MID LEVEL ADIABATIC
LAPSE RATES WILL CREATE IMPRESSIVE CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000.
WITH COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SET TO HELP BREAK THE CAP SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST MONDAY MORNING
AND ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TOMORROW.
THIS WILL PROVIDE AMPLE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. ADDITIONALLY...A DEEP SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA...WITH A WARM
FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BOARDER. AFTERNOON HEATING
ACROSS A VERY WARM AND MOIST WARM SECTOR WILL LIKELY YIELD CAPE
VALUES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. AFTERNOON CAPING DUE TO AN
ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION FROM FORMING
ACROSS ALL BUT FAR WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WHEN MID LEVEL COOLING AND STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES VIA
THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE. INITIALLY...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES. ONCE THE COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE BEGINS PUSHING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE...A TRANSITION TO DAMAGING LINE SEGMENTS
(WITH VERY STRONG WINDS AND SOME HAIL) APPEARS LIKELY.

DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...A SECONDARY PRESSURE SURGE WILL PRODUCE
VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. WITH PRESSURE RISES BETWEEN
15 AND 20 MB/6HOUR...AND A STRONG DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT...WIND GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE
CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH READINGS ON AVERAGE 20 TO 30 DEGREES
COOLER THAN MONDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATE:

CONVECTION IS NOT AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.
CHANCES INCREASE AT KISN MAINLY AFT 08Z.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN
AFTER 12Z. MOST STRONG THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ON MONDAY SHOULD BE
AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE STATE AND
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

932 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

CONVECTION IN CENTRAL ND CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WORK EAST NEAR THE
DVL BSN THIS EVENING. CURRENT FORECAST FOR A CHC OF THUNDER IN THE
DVL BSN REMAINS ON TRACK WITH LITTLE TO NO POPS ELSEWHERE...THIS
IS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HRRR AND OTHER CAMS. MIXING A LITTLE
STRONGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT WHEN SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPED. WILL LEAVE FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIDES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

844 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR MINOT/BOTTINEAU
TO NEAR DICKINSON/GLEN ULLIN WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OR MOVE
VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD. KMOT AND KDIK WILL BE THE MAIN AIRPORTS
AFFECTED BY TSRA THROUGH AROUND 03Z/04Z.

THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO THE STRONG UPPER LOW THAT WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY MORNING IN THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL IMPACT KISN AFTER 08Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH
LOW VFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT KISN AFTER 12Z. MOST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER 21Z AT KISN/KDIK AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE STATE AND THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ARRIVE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...JV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

642 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

TSRA OR VCTS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AT DVL... HOWEVER VERY
UNCERTAIN...SO HAVE LEFT OUT OF TAF AND WILL MONITOR. VFR FOR THE
PERIOD WITH SE WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW LATE MORNING INTO THE
EVENING.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MADE SOME FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AS MORE WEAK CONVECTION HAS
POSSPED UP JUST EAST OF THE RED RIVER AND STARTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION HAS STARTED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BUT JUST WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS IN THAT AREA FOR NOW DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR NORTHEASTWARD THE CONVECTION DEVELOPS.
LOWERED TEMPS JUST A BIT IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA WITH
CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP. THINK THAT SOME SPOTS COULD
STILL APPROACH 90 AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE HUMID WITH DEW POINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO GO UP IN THE NORTHERN VALLEY AS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE HAS BEEN GOING OVER THE TOP OVER THE TOP OF THE
RIDGE. BUMPED UP POPS TO SCATTERED IN THIS AREA AND HAVE IT MOVING
EASTWARD FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. SO FAR IT IS MOSTLY SHOWERS BUT
SOME LIGHTNING IS NOT OF THE QUESTION WITH 1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED
CAPE. THINK THAT THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL NOT KEEP US FROM
GETTING INTO THE UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON AT THIS POINT...BUT
WILL MONITOR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

CONVECTION THAT BLEW UP OVER NORTHWESTERN SD IS RESULTING IN
CIRRUS BLOW OFF SPREADING ACROSS SRN ND AND INTO SWRN ZONES. WILL
INCREASE SKY COVER FOR MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO PATCHY
CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN VALLEY MORE BKN THAN EXPECTED THIS
MORNING...AND WILL ADJUST SKY FOR THIS REGION AS WELL. HI RES
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE
NORTH. CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO ADD ANY POPS OTHER THAN THE FAR
NORTHEAST...WHICH HAS BEEN A BIT MORE CONSISTENT. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED THIS UPDATE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND DAYTIME HIGHS FOR WHAT
SHOULD BE A GENERALLY DRY WEEKEND. PREFER HIGHER RES MODELS FOR
PRECIP TRENDS THIS EVENING. A RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
EASTERN CWA...BRINGING CALM WINDS TO MOST OF WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA WHILE WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP OVER EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND THE NORTHERN VALLEY TO INCLUDE FAR NORTHWESTERN MN.

THIS MORNING...CALM WINDS...DEW POINTS AROUND 60 AND CLEAR SKIES
ARE RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS W CNTRL MN. HAVE PUT
PATCHY FOG INTO FCST THROUGH 13Z TO 14Z TIMEFRAME. MAY SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT ADJACENT TO THE VALLEY AS WINDS PICK UP AND TURN
SOUTHERLY...BUT SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL MID MORNING BURN OFF IN
EASTERN ZONES.

RETURN FLOW WILL SET UP AND WESTERN ZONES SHOULD SEE SOME
INCREASED INSTABILITY...HOWEVER THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
GENERALLY BE ACROSS WRN ND AND SD WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR
AREA AS LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS AREA. MODELS ARE
SHOWING WEAK SHORTWAVES CONTINUING TO RIDE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AND DEVELOP CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WILE A
STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS SD WHERE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 1. DEEP LAYER SHEAR CURRENTLY AROUND 40 KTS WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE DAY AS UPPER RIDGE MOVES ACROSS ND...WHILE WRN ND WILL
SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTN. THINK BEST CHANCE FOR
STORMS WILL BE ALONG SD BORDER OR WRN ZONES WHERE STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WRN/CNTRL ND AND ADVECT INTO DVL AREA. ECMWF/GFS
APPEAR RATHER BULLISH FOR CONVECTION IN FAR WRN ND BUT MOST MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH CONVECTION DYING OFF OVERNIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW
CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST/SOUTH WITH MAJORITY OF CWA DRY. ALSO
ADDED LOW POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEAST AS HRRR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
WEAK STORMS RIDING OVER THE RIDGE AND CROSS LAKE OF THE
WOODS...NORTHERN BELTRAMI COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...UPPER RIDGE OVER EASTERN ZONES WHILE
WE SLOWLY TRANSITION FROM A MORE ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
PATTERN IN THE WEST BY 00Z MON. SHOULD SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND
TEMPS AROUND 90 F FOR DAYTIME HIGHS BOTH DAYS. WILL SEE CONVECTION
BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER ERN MT AND WRN ND LATE IN THE DAY...MOSTLY
DRY OVER OUR AREA. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SASK/MB REGION WILL
INTERACT WITH A SERIES OF WEAK SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SW
FLOW...AND BRING A CHANCE FOR TSTMS TO NW ZONES AND ALONG THE INTL
BORDER. A MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THEN DEVELOPS MON
NIGHT OVER MT/WY AND WILL BRING A FRONT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN
THE NEXT WORK WEEK. HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SRN CANADA.

FOR TUE THROUGH FRI...THERE COULD BE SOME CONVECTION ON TUE
DEPENDING ON TIMING OF A FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
THEREAFTER...TEMPS SHOULD COOL DOWN BELOW NORMAL BY WED. THERE COULD
BE SOME CONVECTION IN THE NORTH WED CLOSER TO CYCLONIC FLOW...BUT
OVERALL NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OR STORMS. FOR
THU/FRI...EXPECT TEMPS RISING TO AROUND NORMAL WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS CLOSE TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AT ALL
SITES...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION OF
SOME RW/TRW ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT PRECLUDES INCLUSION IN TAFS AT
THE PRESENT TIME. ENOUGH ACTIVITY OVER NW MN PRESENTLY FOR A TEMPO
MENTION AT KBJI THIS AFTERNOON.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...WJB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1201 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS INITIATED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN
SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION ALONG ND/SD BORDER. VERY SMALL SCALE AND DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD GRASP ON THE FUTURE TREND YET. WILL ADD THUNDERSTORMS
BETWEEN BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MCS ACROSS THE ND/SD BORDER DIURNALLY TRENDING DOWN THIS MORNING
WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD DIMINISHING. SO DID SOME CLOUD AND POP
UPDATES THIS MORNING. TRIMMED POPS BACK JAMES RIVER VALLEY WEST
TO THE MISSOURI RIVER THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS AND CONFINE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FAR SOUTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE
RAP13 APPEARS TO HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE THAN THE HRRR IN TERMS
OF MOVING/DEVELOPING AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. EARLIER IT APPEARED THAT THIS WOULD MOVE STEADILY
NORTHEAST BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST A MORE EASTWARD MOVEMENT. THIS
WILL LIMIT POPS ACROSS SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
IR CLOUDS TOP TEMPS OF -54C REPRESENTS A CIRRUS SHIELD WITH HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 30KFT AND 35KFT. UPDATES FORTHCOMING.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH A FEW EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS. THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WERE LOCATED IN
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...NORTHERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A GROWING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA.
BOWMAN RADAR ALSO DEPICTS THE LEADING EDGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS
SCOOTING OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST. MAIN THEME TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING...CONTINUING DURING THE DAY...AND GRADUALLY
EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF KEEP THE MAXIMUM CAPE AND
0-6KM SHEAR DISPLACED FROM EACH OTHER...VALUES ARE STILL HIGH
ENOUGH FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVES TO WORK WITH RESULTING IN
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE SOUTH. SPC HAS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA APPROACHING OUR SOUTHERN
BORDER TODAY WITH MARGINAL CRITERIA COVERING ALL EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHWEST. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINLY RESIDE ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY EVENING/NIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVES
MIGRATE EAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH WELL INTO THE
80S...WITH LOWER 90S IN THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW IN THE SHORT TERM TRANSITIONS TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW AS THE WEST COAST TROUGH DEEPENS...AND THEN BEGINS TO PUSH
OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY. WEAK WAVES IN THE FLOW INTO MONDAY KEEP
LOWER POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR EACH DAY. BY MONDAY...AS THE LONG
WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN MONTANA
INTENSIFY WITH STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...TEMPERATURES SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S...AND
WIND SPEEDS APPROACHING ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE LATER MONDAY DUE
IN PART TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...BUT ALSO IN THE BREAK OUT OF
SUNSHINE IN A CLEAR SLOT...AND NEAR THE FRONTAL TRIPLE POINT.
VERY STRONG THERMODYNAMICS SHOULD ALSO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
POWERFUL COLD FRONT...FURTHER ENHANCING STORMS. SEVERE STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY A SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS PREDICTED WITH HIGHS IN THE
NORTHWEST PART OF NORTH DAKOTA ONLY REACHING AROUND 70 BEHIND THE
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP SYSTEM...FOR THE END OF JULY...MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS.

DRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS MOST OF WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. WILL CONTINUE USING VICINITY FOR THE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. OTHERWISE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

947 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

DRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. VCTS WILL
BE MAINTAINED FROM EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIME
PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KISN.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

933 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE TEMPO FOR EARLY MORNING
MIST AT BJI THROUGH 13Z...HOWEVER THIS HAS BEGAN TO CLEAR OUT.
WILL SEE MID CLOUD MOVE INTO DVL REGION THIS EVENING BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR CONVECTION TO ADD AT DVL OR FAR AT THIS
TIME.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

559 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

DRY FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PARTS OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 559 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER A VCTS WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING TIME PERIOD AT ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KISN.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

402 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT RAINFALL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SPEICHER
LONG TERM...DK/SPEICHER
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LATEST SUITE OF SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCT MID LEVEL CLOUDS
LOCATED IN THE NORTHEAST/TURTLE MOUNTAINS...ASSOCIATED WITH
DECAYING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND ALSO
IN SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A COUPLE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SHIFTING THROUGH MONTANA
AND WYOMING. GENERALLY A CLEAR SKY IN BETWEEN THESE AREAS. THE LATEST
REGIONAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS JUST SOUTH OF BOWMAN AND
HETTINGER MOVING EAST WITH TIME. FARTHER UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING...A MORE DISTINCT AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH ARE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST.
FORECAST TRENDS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST RADAR AND 00Z DATA. A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THREAT OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY
IN THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EXPANDING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 908 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST
HOUR...SO WILL LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE...REMOVING AFTER AN
HOUR OR SO. NEXT ROUND OF WEAK WAVES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY APPROACH
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN FOR MAINLY LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE SOUTHWEST. UPDATES HAVE
BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA...BUT
THESE SHOULD BE DIMINISHING SOON WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
OTHERWISE...A QUIET EVENING IS IN STORE FOR MOST LOCATIONS BEFORE
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE APPROACHES SOUTHWESTERN AREAS...BRINGING LOW
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REGION OVER
THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS WITHE A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND AN
ASSOCIATED DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. A
CU FIELD IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY. THE
FORECAST TRENDS IN THE HRRR PLACE SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE NAM/GFS
ARE DRY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP ERODING BUT DONT THINK
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TODAY.
WILL FOLLOW THE DRYER NAM SOLUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY NAM/ECMWF/GFS ALL BRING THE H500 RIDGE
THROUGH THE STATE. THIS POSITIONS AN H500 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHWEST US TO BRING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY. WILL TREND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WEST AND SLIGHT CHANCE
CENTRAL BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THEN A MAINLY DRY FORECAST BY
MID-WEEK.

ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPS WEAK
WAVES PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODELS INDICATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA.

ON SUNDAY WEAK BROAD RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER NORTH DAKOTA AS A
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO AND DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST...BUT UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

BY MONDAY CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD STORMS INCREASE AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND A GUSTY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW WITH
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE FRONT RANGE...INCREASES MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY. THE FORECAST CAPE AND SHEAR PARAMETERS WOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER DOES INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IN THEIR DAY 4 OUTLOOK (MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT). WILL NOT MENTION SEVERE WORDING JUST YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS
WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.

ON TUESDAY THE MODELS LIFT THE LONGWAVE TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTH DAKOTA AND INTO MANITOBA. THIS WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR AREA...BUT ALSO MOVES A STRONGER SURFACE
LOW AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. GUSTY WEST WINDS ON TUESDAY
WILL USHER IN COOLER AIR TO OUR REGION. LOOKING AT HIGHS ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S.

MAINLY DRY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND HIGHS
IN THE 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. HOWEVER A VCTS WILL BE CARRIED AT ALL
TERMINALS SATURDAY...WITH KDIK IN LINE WITH THE EARLIEST ONSET AND
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WILL BE LOOKING AT THE
POSSIBILITY HAVING SOME PREDOMINATE MENTION OF PRECIPIATION AT
SOME OF THE TERMINALS FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE NW ARE DISSIPATING...BUT WILL KEEP
THE 20 POPS NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER UNTIL 4Z JUST IN CASE
ONE SNEAKS INTO THE REGION. FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE AND NO CHANGES
PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN FA SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE REGION BY
01Z. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDER APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND THE HRRR INDICATES ENOUGH FORCING TO HOLD THIS
ACTIVITY TOGETHER SO THAT IT CAN REACH THE DVL BASIN 01Z-04Z..AND
DID INSERT ISOLD POPS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

EXPECT A WARM WEEKEND OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
80S AS A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE. THE USUAL WEAK SHORT
WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...BUT MAINLY IMPACT SOUTH DAKOTA
SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND INTERACTS WITH A
WEAK LOW LEVEL JET. MODELS ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH PCPN PLACEMENT.
GEM TOO FAR NORTH OVER SE ND AND NAM/GFS MORE OVER FAR NRN SD AND
THE ECMWF A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. NET RESULT WAS TO KEEP CHC POPS IN
SRN FCST AREA SAT NIGHT. UNTIL THEN DRY TONIGHT INTO MOST OF
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST SUNDAY WITH ANY PCPN CHANCES ENDING IN
WCNTRL MN SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID WITH
HIGHS CLOSE TO 90 IN IN THE SRN VALLEY. WARM AND HUMID INTO
MONDAY. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLD STORM SUN-SUN NIGHT BUT NOT A
CLEAR SIGNAL IN MODELS BUT PATTERN WOULD SUPPORT SOME AFTN HEATING
STORMS AND A LINGERING STORM OR TWO SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE A BUILDING 500 MB RIDGE EAST OF A PRETTY STRONG UPPER
TROUGH OVER WRN MONTANA. WILL MAINTAIN SOME CHC POPS MONDAY BUT
MAIN FOCUS WILL BE IN ERN MT/WRN ND MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A STRONG UPPER
WAVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE A HOT AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ON
TUESDAY MORNING...THAT WILL FUEL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS THE
SYSTEM ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP AND SOUTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP.
FROPA PASSES EAST ON WEDNESDAY WITH BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER ALONG
THE NORTHERN TIER...WHERE COLDER TEMPS LOFT RESIDE. WEDNESDAY TO
FRIDAY WILL BE OVERALL DRY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPR 70S TO LOW
80S...AT TO SLIGHTLY BELOW END OF JULY NORMALS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT CONSIDERING THE LIGHT WINDS
AND RECENT RAINFALL...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JK/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

949 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN OHIO WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS MONDAY WHEN THE WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO
BE NEAR THE OHIO RIVER. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL ACCOMPANY HIGH PRESSURE ON TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE NRN CWFA THIS EVENING WILL SHOW
ONLY A LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...IT MAY
END UP LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN TERMS OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BY
MONDAY MORNING. OF MORE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL TRYING TO CAPTURE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...MOVING IT SOUTHEAST BUT
WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
TRAJECTORY...FEEL THE NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN TO
LIKELY...MAINLY FOR THE DAYTON METRO AND POINTS TOWARD THE SW CWFA
(TRI-STATE) REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR SE CWFA. WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL COME INTO PLAY.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 MAY EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS WORKING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO.

ANTICIPATE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WILL LIMIT
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE FAR S-SW
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING. HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW
TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL TROF TO MOVE FROM THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA
ACRS THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK FLATTENING OUT THE NRN PORTION OF
THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION
EARLY THURSDAY. MODEL SOLNS HAVE TRENDED A LTL FASTER WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

HAVE CONTINUED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S
NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES. AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NOSE IN
THURSDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LTL
COOLER WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NW TO THE UPPER 80S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S.

TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST REGARDING PCPN LATE NEXT WEEKEND. GFS IS
QUICKER WITH ECMWF BEING SLOWER. HAVE HELD OFF ANY MENTION OF PCPN
UNTIL SUNDAY AFTN AND LIMITED MENTION TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE
NORTH WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONT. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO THE MID/UPR
80S SOUTH SUNDAY.

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STILL LOCATED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES
THIS EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...IT MAY EVEN LOSE ITS IDENTITY
BY MONDAY IN TERMS OF CONVERGENCE. MEANWHILE...A DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW THIS FEATURE WILL INTERACT WITH
DECREASING INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...BEST CHANCE FOR SOME
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO OCCUR NEAR THE KCVG/KLUK TAF SITES. HAVE
USED A VCSH DESCRIPTOR FOR NOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF COVERAGE.
THERE SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH...WHICH
SHOULD KEEP MIST/FOG GENERALLY IN THE MVFR CATEGORY LATE.

ON MONDAY...IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION DUE TO THE LACK OF GOOD SCOURING. WE SHOULD SEE A FEW
POP UP SHOWER/STORMS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

SURFACE WIND FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE WEAK...BUT SHOULD
FAVOR A MORE EAST/SOUTHEAST DIRECTION ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

701 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BOUNDARY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH ON
MONDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A VERY WARM AIRMASS ARE EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED TO THE EAST WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT
STRETCHES FROM MICHIGAN TO ILLINOIS. LITTLE TO NO SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT AT THIS HOUR ALONG THE FRONT.
AS THE FRONT MOVES TO THE ILN AREA TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY STILL RESULT IN
A FEW SHOWERS AS SUGGESTED BY THE RAP MODEL...THOUGH ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP WILL BE MOVING EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE INSTABILITY
CLOSER TO THE HIGH CENTER. UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN
A HUMID AIRMASS...LOWS WILL STAY UP AROUND 70.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS THE FRONT SAGS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP PRIMARILY IN THE
AFTERNOON ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG I-71. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
UNLIKELY IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE CAPE BUT WEAK WIND FIELDS.

FOR MONDAY...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS TO THE VICINITY OF
THE OHIO RIVER...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS TO NORTHERN OHIO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
IN SOUTHERN LOCATIONS CLOSE TO THE FRONT. NORTHERN LOCATIONS
SHOULD BE PROTECTED FROM PRECIP BY THE DRIER AIRMASS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE.

NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD
NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY.
HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES. BEST
MOISTURE/LIFT LOOKS TO BE TO OUR SW BUT A STRAY STORM IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION DURG THE AFTN. DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING
HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH DRY FCST.

NRN PORTION OF MID LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME FLATTENED AS TROF MOVES
THRU SRN CANADA/NRN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES AT MID WEEK. THIS
WILL ALLOW A SFC COLD FRONT TO PUSH THRU THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION OF LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTN
AS MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTBY RETURNS. WARM TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 80S
NW TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACRS THE REGION
LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY MENTION OF
PCPN THRU SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL
CLOSE TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S.

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO...SOUTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE/UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A SHOWER IS EXPECTED NEAR
THE NORTHERN TAF SITES AFTER 06Z. IN ADDITION..WINDS WILL EITHER
BE CALM OR FAIRLY LIGHT...SO SOME MIST WILL DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE KLUK WHERE SOME IFR VISIBILITIES
MAY OCCUR. IMPROVEMENT TO VISIBILITIES WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z AND
14Z.

ON SUNDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH. DIURNAL
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE DISORGANIZED NATURE
AND LOW PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION...HAVE JUST INCLUDED VCSH
DESCRIPTORS AT THE TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HICKMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

417 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S ARE EXPECTED.

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MIX OF VFR CLOUD LAYERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWEST OHIO
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THIS ACTIVITY CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY
TO AFFECT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

MVFR VISIBILITIES APPEAR LIKELY FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT KLUK.

ON SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE
REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY TIME SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT MOST OF THE EXPECTED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP AFTER 17Z.

OUTLOOK...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...CONIGLIO
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATZOS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1221 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BENEATH HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON TSRA OVER IN WRN AR WILL LIKELY BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS
SO NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAFS.

LACY

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MORNING UPPER AIR DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE HAS
WEAKENED A LITTLE OVER OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND HRRR SUGGEST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TULSA WFO FORECAST AREA WHERE 500MB ARE COOLER AND HEIGHTS ARE
LOWER. THERE IS ENOUGH OF A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN THE AVAILABLE
DATA TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON STORMS EAST OF THE
I-49 CORRIDOR IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED.
HEAT HEADLINES REMAIN INTACT.

LACY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 94 71 94 71 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 94 72 94 72 / 20 0 10 10
MKO 95 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 96 74 96 74 / 10 0 10 0
F10 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
069-073-075.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
020-029.

AVIATION...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1017 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

LACY

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL 99 77 99 77 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 99 77 99 77 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 97 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 94 71 94 71 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 94 72 94 72 / 10 0 10 10
MKO 95 74 95 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 10 0
F10 96 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 97 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053-063-068-
069-073-075.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
OKZ054>062-064>067-070>072-074-076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ019-
020-029.

SHORT TERM...30

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS TULSA OK

1149 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...

AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI WILL MAKE A
CLOSE APPROACH TO PARTS OF FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...BUT WITH
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A DISSIPATING TREND ON THE
NORTHWEST EDGE NEAR SPRINGFIELD AND ALSO WARMING CLOUD TOPS IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE STORMS WILL MISS
THE FORECAST AREA ENTIRELY. THIS IS FAIRLY WELL DEPICTED IN THE
LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE AS WELL. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL NOT PUT ANY
MENTIONABLE POPS IN THE ONGOING FORECAST.

OVERALL...THE FORECAST LOOKS WELL IN HAND...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
BEING VERY NEAR LAST NIGHTS. EARLIER UPDATE ADDRESSED THE
EXPIRATION OF THE AFTERNOON HEAT HEADLINES...AND NO FURTHER UPDATE
IS PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT
THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TRANSPORT HOT TEMPERATURES ON TOP
OF DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. THE RESULTS ARE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES TO AROUND
112 DEGREES OVER THE CWA. THUS...WILL LET THE CURRENT HEAT
HEADLINES RIDE AS IS THROUGH MID EVENING.

THE RIDGE REMAINS INTACT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO OSCILLATE A BIT FROM WEST TO EAST AND BACK
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR A DIFFERENCE
OF A DEGREE OR SO IN SURFACE TEMPS EACH DAY. HOWEVER...WITH 850-MB
IN THE LOW TO MID +20C RANGE...HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 90S FOR FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TO THE UPPER 90S/NEAR 100 DEGREES WILL REMAIN
COMMON ELSEWHERE OVER THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY. THUS...HAVE
EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO EXTEND AGAIN FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. HEAT INDICES OF AROUND 105 TO 110 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.

IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO
FINALLY SHIFT FAR ENOUGH WEST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK TO
ALLOW FOR NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN OVER THE PLAINS. THIS COULD
ALLOW FOR A WAVE...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
THIS WEEKEND...TO DROP A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND RAIN CHANCES INTO
THE REGION THURSDAY/FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS COULD BRING A BRIEF
RELIEF FROM THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS...THOUGH WE WILL JUST
HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE...

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-002-019-
020-029.

AVIATION...06

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PORTLAND OR

905 AM PDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...THE REMAINS OF A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN WASHINGTON
AND NORTHWEST OREGON EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST
TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN INLAND AREAS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS TO THE EAST MONDAY...
WHICH WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A RAPID WARMING AND DRYING TREND.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT OFFSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO DEVELOP
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HELPING TO BOOST DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL.

.UPDATE...DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE ARE FALLING PERIODICALLY ALONG MUCH OF OUR
COAST...AS FAR SOUTH AS YACHATS SO FAR...AND IN THE NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND POINTS NORTHWARD. WETTING RAINS HAVE STARTED
MAKING AN APPEARANCE ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON
CASCADES WITH EVEN A FEW LOWER COLUMBIA RIVER VALLEY AND NORTHERN
WILLAMETTE VALLEY LOCATIONS STARTING TO PUSH A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN
INCH. THE RAINFALL WINNERS SO FAR ARE ELK ROCK RAWS AT 0.44 INCHES
AND 0.37 INCHES IN ARIEL IN THE SOUTH WASHINGTON CASCADE FOOTHILLS.

MODELS AGREE THE BAND OF SHOWERS STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY...BRINGING AT LEAST A FEW
SHOWERS TO THE REST OF THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY AND CENTRAL OREGON
CASCADES LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE HRRR SUGGESTS SHOWER
COVERAGE SHOULD LESSON THIS AFTERNOON...AND THIS SEEMS CONSISTENT
WITH THE LARGER SCALE GLOBAL MODELS. SIGNIFICANT ADJUSTEMENTS TO POPS
AND QPF WERE MADE TO REFLECT REALITY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ADDITIONAL
UPDATES TODAY AS TRENDS EMERGE.

A TEMPORARY LULL IN PRECIPITATION SHOULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS WEAK SURFACE RIDGING PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS AND COLD POOL ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THIS SHOULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
THE REGION WITH PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DEPENDING ON CLOUD
COVER. WILL LIKELY BOOST POPS FURTHER WITH THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. THE DRYING TREND AND RETURN TO HOT
WEATHER LOOKS ON TRACK FOR NEXT WEEK. /NEUMAN

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH WARMER AND DRIER
PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG HIGH PRES ALOFT
RETURNS TUE AND IS EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. ECMWF
AND GFS SUGGEST A THERMALLY-INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FORM ALONG
THE COAST TUE NIGHT. THE THERMAL TROUGH COULD HOLD ALONG THE COAST
WED...ALLOWING SOME PART OF THE N OREGON COAST TO GET INTO THE 80S
TUE. MODELS DIFFER ON THE THERMAL TROUGH DETAILS...BUT SHOW IT
SOMEWHERE OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WED AND POSSIBLY THU. 850 MB
FORECAST TEMPS CLIMB TO 22-24C...DEPENDING ON THE MODEL. SHOULD THIS
OCCUR...SOME INTERIOR LOWLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE CLOSE TO 100 DEG.
THERE MAY BE SLIGHT RELIEF FRI AS A SHORT-WAVE MOVES ACROSS BRITISH
COLUMBIA...SUPRESSING THE 500 MB HEIGHTS JUST A BIT AND ALLOWING A
LITTLE MORE ONSHORE FLOW. ECMWF HINTS AT SOUTH FLOW ALOFT SPREADING
INTO S AND CENTRAL OREGON FRI...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE
ABOUT 12-24 HRS SLOWER THAN THE GFS. WEISHAAR

.AVIATION...A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND ACROSS THE
REGION...PRESENTLY SITUATED JUST EAST OF A KDLS-KEUG-KOTH LINE AS
OF 15Z. PRIMARILY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE HEAVIEST OF
RAIN PROVIDING FOR LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME
IMPROVEMENT ALREADY ALONG THE NORTH COAST WHERE VFR CIGS HAVE
RETURNED. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW IN THE UNSTABLE
POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS...EXPECT SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT BUT CONTINUED LOWER
VFR TO HIGH MVFR CIGS ONCE THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND PASSES. SLOW
IMPROVEMENT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT POSSIBLE...BUT ANOTHER WEAK
FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW FOR A VERY SIMILAR OVERALL
PATTERN.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR CIGS WITH RAIN THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA. MAY STILL SEE ONE MORE BAND OF
HEAVIER RAIN BEFORE 17Z THAT COULD BRING TEMPORARY IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT BUT EXPECT
HIGHER MVFR TO LOWER VFR CIGS TO LINGER. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
ARRIVES TOMORROW FOR VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS.CULLEN

.MARINE...A WEAK FRONT IS ADVANCING ONSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH
ANOTHER FRONT FOLLOWING CLOSELY BEHIND. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL
TRAVERSE THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS REMAIN BELOW
15 KT OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH FAIRLY WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME TONIGHT SOUTHERLY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BEFORE AGAIN BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO NEAR 7 FT TONIGHT...BEFORE
EASING BY A FOOT OR TWO ON SUNDAY.

A MORE TYPICAL LATE JULY PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK...AS THERMAL
TROUGH OVER NW CALIFORNIA AND SW OREGON WILL BUILD WHILE HIGH
PRES SITS OVER NE PAC. THIS WILL BRING RETURN OF GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS...ALONG WITH SHORT PERIOD CHOPPY WIND DRIVEN SEAS...ESPECIALLY
FROM CASCADE HEAD SOUTHWARD.CULLEN

.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

INTERACT WITH US VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSPORTLAND
WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSPORTLAND

THIS DISCUSSION IS FOR NORTHWEST OREGON AND SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON
FROM THE CASCADE CREST TO 60 NAUTICAL MILES OFFSHORE. THE AREA IS
COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS THE FORECAST AREA.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS ABERDEEN SD

1234 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 845 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION ALREADY DEVELOPING OUT WEST THIS EVENING
AND MOVING EAST. EXPECT THIS DEVELOPMENT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT AS SHOWN BY THE HRRR MODEL. IT SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. ADJUSTED WEATHER AND POPS FOR THE NIGHT.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM
REGARDING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL. MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT THERE ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN PLACEMENT/TIMING ON THE NEW 12Z RUNS
BETWEEN THE HI-RES CAMS AND THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE ECMWF IS ALSO
FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS WHILE THE GFS ENHANCED THE
EASTERN H5 SHORTWAVE SAT EVENING AND THEREFORE KEEPS A RATHER ROBUST
QPF FIELD ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA.

STUCK WITH THE HI-RES SOLUTIONS THIS EVENING WHICH GENERATE SOME
STORMS WEST RIVER BY 0Z. WHILE CAPE IS UNDERWHELMING..LESS THAN 1000
J/KG ON THE RAP...UNTIL CLOSE TO 12Z SAT SHEAR IS AROUND 45 TO 55
KTS AND CIN IS MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL NOT MIGRATE VERY FAR EAST
UNTIL CLOSER TO MORNING. ANY LEFT OVER CLOUDINESS MAY HAMPER INITIAL
RE-DEVELOPMENT SAT AFTERNOON AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SHEAR IN THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO BECOME
SEVERE.

MOST OF THE DAY SUNDAY WILL BE DRY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THERE IS AN
APPROACHING SFC LOW AND SOME WEAKER SHORTWAVE ENERGY SUNDAY EVENING
THAT MAY FIRE OFF A FEW STORMS BUT MODELS DIVERGE GREATLY ON
PLACEMENT WITH SOME KEEPING ANY PRECIP CHANCE OUT OF THIS CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY IN THE
WORKWEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH 700 MB TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 12 C TO 16 C
WILL KEEP A CAP ON MOST CONVECTION. NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH
WILL THEN BRING COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS BY MID WEEK...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...AS 500 MB HEIGHTS
ARE ON THE RISE BY THE END OF THE WORKWEEK...WITH FORECAST MAX
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 80S AND 90S BY FRIDAY.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS OUT WEST COULD AFFECT
PIR AND MBG TONIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND WILL COME SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING POSSIBLY AFFECTING ALL LOCATIONS.

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOHR
SHORT TERM...WISE
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

141 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL
REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...THEN STALL...AND
BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 100 AM EDT SATURDAY...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND CLOUD COVER FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS OF 822 PM EDT FRIDAY...

OTHER THAN FOR A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN BLUE
RIDGE...QUIET WEATHER PREVAILS THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR ALOFT PER EVENING
SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER STILL SOME CONCERN ABOUT SOME LOW TOPPED
SHOWERS FORMING ACROSS THE SW UNDER THE MID LEVEL INVERSION
THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING AS MIXING WEAKENS AND MOISTURE POOLS A
BIT. ALSO SEEING A DECENT LOW LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE UP ALONG THE
BLUE RIDGE WHICH THE HRRR KEEPS FOCUS ALONG AS CU SPREADS OUT
UNDER THE DRY AIR ABOVE AFTER LOSS OF HEATING. SINCE THIS SOLUTION
HAS BEEN OVERDONE WILL ONLY KEEP AN ISOLATED MENTION GOING SOUTHERN
BLUE RIDGE A FEW MORE HOURS WITH PC TO CLEAR ELSW. OTHER CONCERN
WITH POSSIBLE FORMATION OF LOW CLOUDS EASTERN SLOPES LATE...AND
EXPANSE OF FOG BY FORMATION BY DAWN ESPCLY VALLEYS AND OUT EAST
WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER. LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS QUITE A
BIT OF FOG SO INCLUDED SOME AREAS OF DENSE FOG VALLEYS AND LEFT
MUCH OF THE REST OF THE CWA IN PATCHY COVERAGE. OTRW BUMPED DOWN
LOW TEMPS A LITTLE IN THE WEST WHILE RAISING SOME SE BUT OVERALL
60S WITH A FEW 50S DEEPER VALLEYS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 305 PM EDT FRIDAY...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN THE REGION THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH LOSE OF
HEATING...CLOUDS WILL FADE THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING. AN
INVERSION WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THIS INVERSION MAY
BRING A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING. AREAS NOT BEING OVERCOME BY THIS STRATUS DECK WILL LIKELY
HAVE PATCHY MORNING FOG...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LOW
LYING AREAS. THIS FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKER THAN THE STRATUS DECK
WILL. LIKE THIS AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL. THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SMALL BUT POSSIBLE TOWARDS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA BLUE RIDGE. IT
APPEARS SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 318 PM EDT FRIDAY...

YOU CAN EXPECT TYPICAL SUMMER WX INTO SUNDAY...WITH WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT TRYING TO MAKE IT INTO THE AREA MONDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NE
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY PLUS SOME ENERGY ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED STRONGER STORMS TO FORM MONDAY...BUT STILL MOST AREAS WILL
BE DRY. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE RANGE...WITH LESS COVERAGE
SUNDAY.

HIGHS SUNDAY-MONDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FROM THE LOWER TO MID
80S WEST TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S EAST.

LOW TEMPS WILL BE CREEPING BACK UP WITH HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
INCREASE. LOWS SAT NIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS
TO UPPER 60S EAST WARMING TO THE MID 60S MTNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT TO AROUND 70 EAST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 138 PM EDT FRIDAY...

A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL STAY SITUATED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP US A BIT ON THE HUMID SIDE WITH
CLOSE TO SEASONAL TEMPS...HIGHS 80S MOUNTAINS TO LOW 90S EAST...WITH
ONLY A SCATTERING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING PERIODS.

AS WE HEAD INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLOSED LOW OVER THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD OPENS UP AS IT MOVES EAST INTO ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC. MODELS ARE FAVORING HEIGHTS LOWERING OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING
INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL START TO
INCREASE THE THREAT OF STORMS. AT THE MOMENT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE THE
USUAL CHANCE RANGE OF 30-50 PERCENT...BUT THINK NEXT FRIDAY WOULD
START TO FAVOR HIGHER POPS. TEMPS SHOULD FALL OFF SLIGHTLY...BUT
STILL THINK WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHWEST...WE SHOULD STILL
SEE 80S MOUNTAINS TO NEAR 90 SOUTHEAST.

LOWS DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S MOUNTAINS TO
UPPER 60S AROUND 70 EAST.

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT SATURDAY...

EAST SOUTHEASTERLY WINDFLOW WILL GENERATE PATCHY STRATUS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CREATE POCKETS OF FOG THIS MORNING.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL HINDER FOG THIS MORNING. BUT...STILL
BELIEVE THAT WE WILL SEE DEVELOPMENT OF RIVER VALLEY FOG FOR
KLWB. PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT DAN...AND BCB.
ANY MORNING FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY BY LATE MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL TODAY...WITH DAYTIME HEATING
ERODING ANY SUB VFR CONDITIONS QUICKLY AFTER 25/13Z. EARLY
AFTERNOON WILL BRING REDEVELOPMENT OF CU FIELD ACROSS THE AREA...
WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS/ISOLATED BRIEF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE RIDGES WITH HEATING. COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED FOR
MENTION IN TAF.

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CEILINGS...VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD STAY IN CONTROL OVERHEAD...AND MAINTAIN MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF
EARLY MORNING VALLEY FOG. SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY
BECOME MORE ENHANCED BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE COAST. A RETURN OF HAZY...HOT...AND
HUMID CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...JH/RCS
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...KK/NF/PW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

959 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.UPDATE...

THERE COULD BE SOME LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT
TODAY...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE AREA. STILL EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 80S UNDER 925
MB TEMPS OF 23-25 C...WITH A FEW SPOTS POSSIBLY CRACKING 90. IT
WILL BE A TAD COOLER NEAR LAKE MICHIGAN...WHERE WINDS WILL TURN
ONSHORE FOR THE AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SOME FOG MAY TRY TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH BRINGS LIGHT TO CALM WINDS....BUT THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS OF A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THAT COULD DISRUPT THE
FOG POTENTIAL.

MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP IN THE FAR WEST OR SOUTHWEST
LATER SUNDAY AS THE HIGH HEADS EAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING
DRIER THOUGH...HOLDING ONTO THE HIGH A BIT LONGER.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015/

TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

EARLIER SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION UPSTREAM OVER WEST
CENTRAL WI DIED OUT AS IT MOVED INTO INCREASING CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WI...REFLECTED IN CAP BETWEEN
800 MB AND 700 MB ON BLUE RIVER RAP FORECAST SOUNDING.

THE INHIBITION DOES LOWER IN A CORRIDOR COINCIDENT WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT WITH A FEW CELLS POPPING UP ALONG THE FRONT...BUT
THEY ARE WEAK AND SHORT-LIVED WITH THE CAP AND LITTLE IN THE WAY
OF UPPER SUPPORT WITH AREA UNDER THE RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A 300 MB
JET MAXIMA AND CVA WITH THE SHORT WAVE DRIVING THE CONVECTION OVER
NE WI TO NRN LAKE MICHIGAN.

WITH HI-RES/RAPID UPDATE MODELS STILL SHOWING POTENTIAL OF
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH A STORM OR TWO AS FRONT CROSSES
FORECAST AREA WILL KEEP A COLLABORATIVE SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE
FRONT...EXITING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 15Z THOUGH A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BUT MODELS STILL SHOW 925
MB TEMPS A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN FRIDAY. WILL KEEP UPPER 80S
HIGHS INLAND WITH A COOLING LAKE BREEZE DEVELOPING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON HOLDING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE
LAKE.

TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH...WITH MODELS DEPICTING A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WITH A CONSENSUS POSITION OVER SRN
MN/NRN IA BY 12Z SUNDAY. BETTER RETURN FLOW STAYS WEST OF CWA
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...BUT WITH SOME OMEGA AND ELEVATED CAPE SHOWN
ON NAM DBQ FORECAST SOUNDINGS AFTER 09Z...THOUGH LITTLE OMEGA AND
CAPE ON BLUE RIVER SOUNDING... WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AFTER
09Z IN THE FAR SW CWA. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.

SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH A 500 MB RIDGE AXIS BUILDING
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...SHIFTING
SLOWLY EASTWARD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWING SEVERAL
WEAK VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING THROUGH THE REGION...WITH SOME TIMING
AND PLACEMENT DIFFERENCES. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS
EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF MODELS KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...WITH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
HIGH. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL TO PRODUCE ROUNDS OF QPF AT TIMES
DURING THIS PERIOD. GFS FORECAST SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE
SOMEWHAT WITH DEW POINTS...WHICH MAY BE LEADING TO THE QPF
FORECASTS. THINK THE GFS IS OVERDONE...AS THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT
FEATURES TO PRODUCE THE QPF IT IS SHOWING.

THUS...LEANED TOWARDS THE NAM/CANADIAN/ECMWF AND LOWERED POPS
DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS
PERIOD END UP DRY. WARM 925 MB TEMPERATURES AND SOME SUNSHINE
SHOULD RESULT IN WARM AND HUMID DAYS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WITH
HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S EACH DAY. THEY COULD INCH A
DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. ONSHORE WINDS WILL
KEEP LAKESHORE AREAS SOMEWHAT COOLER.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

GFS/ECMWF MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS LINGERING TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A BROAD 500 MB TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AS WELL...WITH EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA. THUS...KEPT POPS GOING
FOR THE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY PERIOD...HIGHEST TUESDAY NIGHT. MAY
NEED HIGHER POPS TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY IF THEY REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TIMING.

SOMEWHAT COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR LATER WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF THIS PERIOD
LOOKS DRY AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

EXCEPT FOR A FEW BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES POPPING UP
ALONG THE COOL FRONT...MOST AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN DRY AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WILL REMOVE VICINITY THUNDER AS ANY PCPN
THAT DOES REACH A TAF SITE WILL BE A LIGHT SHOWER AT MOST. FRONT
CLEARS THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER BETWEEN 15Z AND 16Z ENDING ANY
PCPN CHANCES.

MAINLY VFR CLOUDS WITH FRONT...BUT SOME SCT-BKN MVFR CLOUDS RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COULD AFFECT TAF SITES FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL WATCH TRENDS UP TO ISSUANCE TO SEE IF
LOWER CLOUDS EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST WITH AN EASTERLY LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD PUSH WEST TO
KUES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DDV
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

432 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...

VFR CONDITIONS FOR REMAINDER OF FORECAST WITH AN EASTERLY LAKE
BREEZE DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD PUSH WEST TO
KUES BY LATE AFTERNOON.

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI

330 AM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.TODAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM.

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
MEDIUM.

.AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...TO BE ADDED SHORTLY...

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...REM
SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WOOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LA CROSSE WI

1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS SEVERE CONVECTION POTENTIAL THIS EVENING WITH
COLD FROPA.

SURFACE MAP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN THROUGH NORTHWEST WI INTO SOUTHEAST MN INTO NORTH
CENTRAL IA. RAP PUSHES CORRIDOR OF 0-1KM MUCAPE IN THE 1500-3000J/KG
RANGE (NE-SE RESPECTIVELY) ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE AREA
BY 7PM. HOWEVER...RAP/NAM SOUNDING CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 700-
800MB CAP IN PLACE TO INHIBIT SURFACE BASED CONVECTION. THE ONLY
MODEL SHOWING CONVECTIVE REFLECTIVITY OUTPUT WITH THE FROPA IS THE
NAM...BUT THIS IS WITH MUCH HIGHER PROGGED DEW POINTS IN THE 75-80
DEGREE RANGE WHICH SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE. AS A RESULT...CONVECTION
ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CONDITIONAL DUE TO THE CAP IN PLACE. IF
THE CAP DOES WEAKEN SOME...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS COULD
FIRE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREAT. AS A
RESULT OF THE CONDITIONAL NATURE TO THIS SCENARIO...KEEPING POP
CATEGORY IN THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE
EAST WHERE CAP WILL BE WEAKEST. LOOK FOR STORM THREAT TO SUBSIDE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE AREA.

SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE A DRIER DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE TAKES
CONTROL ACROSS THE AREA. PLAN ON HIGHS IN THE 80S.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT/AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE HEAT RIDGE IN
PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. NAM MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE WHILE
THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH. WILL GO WITH 20-40 PPS
FOR NOW AND MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 207 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

LOOK FOR THAT MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CONTINUE PUSHING EAST INTO/THROUGH
THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION LOOKS TO BE SUB-SEVERE AT
THIS TIME WITH JUST LIGHTNING AND SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE
MAIN IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

MONDAY HOLDS A LOWER-END CHANCE FOR SOME AIRMASS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE WILL STILL BE A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE HEAT
RIDGE IN PLACE AS HIGHS TOP OFF WELL INTO THE 80S.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...THE REGION WILL BE IN AN AREA OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE CROSSING
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SPREAD MORE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES INTO THE AREA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD TOP
90S DEGREES AT SOME LOCATIONS. THEN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR A CONTINUED
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE REGION. OTHERWISE...PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 7S0 TO THE LOWER 80S.

SMALL-END SHOWER/THUNDER CHANCE RETURN ON FRIDAY AS BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MN INTO NORTHWEST
WI. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

SOME STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE FRONT HAS ALREADY PAST
KRST...BUT KLSE STILL HAS A CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM TO BRING BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN AND SOME WIND GUSTS THROUGH 07Z OR SO. WITH THE ACTIVITY
LOOKING ISOLATED...WILL CONSIDER A VCTS...OTHERWISE WILL KEEP PCPN
OUT OF FORECAST UNLESS RADAR DICTATES ITS NEEDED.

WINDS GO WEST POST FRONT...AND THEN WILL SHIFT NORTH ON SAT.
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH SAT.

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DAS
LONG TERM...DAS
AVIATION...RIECK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

951 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MINOR UPDATE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR THE SOUTHERN NE
PANHANDLE AFTER 06Z. DUAL-POL RAINFALL ESTIMATES ARE IN THE AREA
OF 2-4 INCHES ROUGHLY ALONG A KIMBALL TO BROADWATER LINE FROM THE
CONVECTION EARLIER TODAY. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS APPEAR TO BE ON TRACK
WITH GOOD LLVL SATURATION OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS THAT ARE ALREADY TAKING SHAPE. HRRR SHOWS POCKETS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AS FAR WEST AS CYS...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL STAY
MIXED ENOUGH TO KEEP FOG AT BAY. HOWEVER WITH DEW POINTS STILL IN
THE MID 50S AMID SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

CURRENTLY...WE HAVE A DRY LINE PUSHING INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE DRY LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S AND 30S
ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING. AHEAD OF THIS
LINE...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S ARE BEING OBSERVED. OUT
WEST IN CARBON COUNTY...GETTING WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH AT RAWLINS
AND LOW 20 MPH RANGE DOWN BY DIXON. DECIDED TO KEEP THE CURRENT
RED FLAG WARNING GOING FOR FWZ 304 THROUGH 8 PM THIS EVENING.

STRONG WIND EVENT STILL ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS A PACIFIC LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTHWESTERN
WYOMING. LATEST NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING US MIXING UP TO
NEAR 500MBS MONDAY WITH FORECAST WINDS AT THIS LEVEL OF 45-50KTS.
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT SOME HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY FOR
OUR WIND PRONE AREAS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 25. PROBABLY OF MORE
SIGNIFICANCE IS WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT
ARE ALMOST CERTAIN TO HAPPEN MONDAY. FORECAST MIN HUMIDITIES OF 7
TO 15 PERCENT LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH POOR
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. WENT AHEAD AND UPGRADED PREVIOUS FIRE
WEATHER WATCHES TO WARNINGS WHERE FUELS ARE REPORTED RECEPTIVE.

WHILE DEALING WITH RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
WYOMING...WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
PANHANDLE AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. NAM FORECAST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE MONDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST AROUND 2000J/KG.
FORECAST SHEAR 0-6KM AROUND 33KTS...CAN NOT RULE OUT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OUT THERE FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ESPECIALLY WITH THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRETTY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND KEEPS A DRY WESTERLY
MIDLVL FLOW OVER THE CWA. TEMPS ON WED WILL BE COOL...HOWEVER WITH
A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL DROP TO 10-15
PERCENT OVER CARBON COUNTY. COULD BE AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE
SOUTHERN LARAMIE RANGE DURING THE EVENING AS SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS PRODUCES CONVERGENCE. WE WILL SEE 5-10 DEGREES OF
WARMING FOR THURS AND THEN LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. 700-
500MB FLOW REMAINS WEST NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE GFS
SHOWING PW VALUES REMAINING 0.25-0.50 INCHES...WHICH IS WELL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. CONVECTION WILL BE REALLY STYMIED IN
THIS PATTERN. ALTHOUGH RH VALUES WILL DROP TO BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS
TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE ON ALL AFTNS...THE WEAK GRADIENTS
AND WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS LIMITED.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE. THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. TSTORMS WILL EITHER PUSH EAST OR RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE JUST AFTER SUNSET. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MARGINAL CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON FOR
WESTERN CARBON COUNTY WITH WINDS EASING TEMPORARILY AFTER SUNSET.
WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND WILL BECOME QUITE
STRONG MONDAY. EXPECT POOR OVERNIGHT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES...ESPECIALLY
WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE AS THESE WINDS INCREASE. A DRY COLD FRONT
IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUING
INTO TUESDAY AS NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND DRY AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR WYZ301-302-304-
310.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...ZF
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1141 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A STATIONARY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS WITH ACTIVE WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL CONUS. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND WEAK WAVES CIRCULATING
CLOCKWISE AROUND THE UPPER HIGH AIDED IN SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER/MID MS
VALLEY. A COMPLEX OF TSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEFT FRONT QUADRANT OF UPPER JET STREAK.
THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWEST SD OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A WAVY FRONT
FROM A LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL IA ACROSS SOUTHERN NE...NORTHWEST KS
AND EAST CENTRAL CO THEN CURVING NORTHWEST INTO EASTERN WY. BACK
EDGE OF CIRRUS WAS MOVING THROUGH WESTERN NE LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES TO THE WEST.

THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WE`VE BEEN ACCUSTOMED TO THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE FLANKED BY TROUGHS
TO THE WEST AND EAST. ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPED OVER THE
PLAINS LATE FRIDAY ALONG A INSTABILITY GRADIENT. THE GRADIENT
WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CWA TODAY...HOWEVER JET ENERGY COMBINED
WITH LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TRIGGER ISOLATED AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS...HOWEVER THE HRRR GENERATES A 20-30
PERCENT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION. NOT TOTALLY BUYING THE HRRR...WITH
10-15 PERCENT POPS FORECAST ATTM. 700MB TEMPERATURES PEAK NEAR 15C
TODAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S-MID 90S FOR THE
PLAINS. IT WILL BE BREEZY WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR 25 MPH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES WARMER
WITH 700MB TEMPERATURES PEAKING 16-17C. 90S WILL PREVAIL EAST
OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BOTH DAYS. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMEST
OF THE TWO DAYS...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN NE PANHANDLE
TOPPING OUT AT 100 DEGREES. LOW LEVEL THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXIS
WILL RESIDE EAST OF THE CWA...HOWEVER WITH THE POSITION OF THE
RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER JET OVERHEAD...CANNOT RULE OUT
A FEW AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TSTORMS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MONDAY WILL
INDUCE WINDY CONDITIONS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH GUSTS
POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 40 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ON THE DRIER SIDE THROUGH THE
LONGER TERM FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT STARTS OFF WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. DEPENDING ON THE
EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
OVER FAR NORTHERN AND/OR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY EVENING. CURRENTLY THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE MAIN ENERGY
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR EXPECTED TUESDAY AS THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES EAST INTO THE PLAINS. TIMING OF THE COOL
PUSH SHOULD KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AT A MINIMUM OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LIKELY DEVELOPING WELL
EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH INTO COLORADO. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S WEST TO
LOW-MID 80S INTO THE PLAINS.

MILD TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS. WEDNESDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE ON
THE DRY SIDE WITH VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE SIDE OF THE
REAR UPPER LEVEL JET. ALSO LOOKING AT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPING WITH ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.

WARMING TREND FOR LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING OVER
THE WESTERN CONUS AND WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST
AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOW 80S WEST TO
AROUND 90 INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY AND SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY.
EXPECTING VERY ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY BUT
OVERALL CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL BE VERY LOW WITH
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LIKELY LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE BY
18Z SUN.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

WARM AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE DISTRICTS
THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TUESDAY. NEAR-
CRITICAL WINDS AND HUMIDITIES FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING CAN BE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
MONDAY MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE FOLLOWING POOR OVERNIGHT
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST OVER 40 MPH WEST OF
THE LARAMIE RANGE MONDAY WITH AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES FALLING INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS PERCENT. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITIES WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...CLH
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

545 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

VFR EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING WITH
A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME A BIT GUSTY LATE THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 15 KTS ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SML
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

320 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 919 PM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

VFR. THROUGH 12Z...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NORTH OF A LARAMIE TO
TORRINGTON LINE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000
FEET AGL SOUTH OF THIS LINE.

AFTER 12Z...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AGL.
WINDS GUSTING 20 TO 30 KNOTS AFTER DAYBREAK ON SATURDAY...THEN
DECREASING EARLY SATURDAY EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 222 AM MDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAJ
LONG TERM...SML
AVIATION...SAR
FIRE WEATHER...MAJ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND JUNCTION CO

1039 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS COULD PRODUCE SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES
AND GUSTY WINDS BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT VFR LEVELS
OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR MAY DEVELOP 09Z-15Z WITH WINDS AT
10000-14000 FT MSL INCREASING 40KTS FROM THE SW AFT 12Z. THESE
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL MIX INTO TAF SITES BETWEEN 15-18Z MONDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MAINLY NEAR
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 815 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR TODAY HAS EXPIRED AT 8PM....

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ200>203.

UT...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...JDC
AVIATION...TGJT
FIRE WEATHER...MPM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

250 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY, MUCH LIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS, REVOLVE
AROUND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HOW HIGH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL CLIMB.

THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THE PAST TWO DAYS HAS NOT BEEN BEEN VERY HIGH
DESPITE DECENT INSTABILITY AND LITTLE/NO CAPPING. FORECAST
INSTABILITY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WITH PEAK VALUES IN THE 2500-3500 J/KB RANGE (HIGHEST IN THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA). SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE WEEKEND
WERE ALSO MODEST, AND SHOULD BE EVEN WEAKER TODAY WITH BULK SHEAR
VALUES ONLY FORECAST TO BE AROUND 20 KTS. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORMS
TODAY WILL BE THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT THAT LIES ROUGHLY WEST-EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS, AND POSSIBLY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. BOTTOM
LINE, PLAN TO CARRY ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS TODAY, LIMITING
THEM MAINLY TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
INSTABILITY AND THE THREAT OF A FOCUSING BOUNDARY SHOULD BE HIGHEST.

TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY, MOSTLY
DUE TO LESS PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND AN ASSOCIATED REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER, WITH THE LINGERING STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN
PLACE, AND LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS IN ITS VICINITY, NO SIGNIFICANT
AIRMASS CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100 OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. SO, WHILE IT WILL BE QUITE WARM/HUMID ONCE AGAIN
TODAY, EXPECTED VALUES REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

DEEP UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST HELPING TO PUSH THE UPPER
RIDGE EASTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS A STRONG LOW DEVELOPS
WITHIN THE TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF
THE PERIOD WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING 27-28C BY AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE CWA SHOULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDICES BY TUESDAY AND
BE NEAR 110 FROM ABOUT SPRINGFIELD-HAVANA WESTWARD. WE`RE STARTING
TO GET CLOSE TO THE TIME WE`LL NEED TO ISSUE A HEAT ADVISORY...BUT
WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS STILL OVER 30 HOURS AWAY...WILL LIKELY WAIT
FOR THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE BEFORE ISSUING IT.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW STILL EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME 100-105 HEAT INDICES EAST OF
I-57 BEFORE THE FRONT BRINGS LOWER DEW POINTS BY MID AFTERNOON. MORE
COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW...ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO START
CREEPING UP AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

PRECIPITATION-WISE...ANY ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD FADE OFF EARLY THIS
EVENING. HAVE LARGELY REMOVED POP`S FOR TUESDAY AS THERE NOT BE MUCH
OF A FORCING MECHANISM IN MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH THE NMM MODEL HINTS
AT SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN ILLINOIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS TO KICK IN. MAIN FOCUS FOR
RAIN WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE NEXT CHANCES ON SUNDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A
COLD FRONT BY AFTERNOON AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

FOG FORMATION IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. BMI
DROPPED TO 1/4SM FG FOR A WHILE ALREADY THIS EVENING, ALTHOUGH WEB
CAMS FROM AROUND BLOOMINGTON/NORMAL DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY
OF FOG AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR VLIFR FOG
AT BMI LATER TONIGHT. THE NAM AND HRRR ARE SHOWING AREAS OF DENSE
FOG ACROSS CENTRAL IL. WILL INCLUDE 1/2SM FG IN A TEMPO FOR DEC
AND CMI, WITH TEMPOS FOR 3/4SM AND 1SM FOR PIA AND SPI
RESPECTIVELY.

THE CIRRUS OVERCAST FROM CONVECTION IN THE PLAINS MAY REACH PIA
AND SPI LATER TONIGHT, HELPING TO KEEP DENSE FOG FROM FORMING.
EASTERN AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH CLEAR SKIES FOR A HIGHER POTENTIAL OF
LOCALLY DENSE FOG.

ONCE THE FOG CLEARS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN
A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 10KT.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAK
LONG TERM...GEELHART
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LINCOLN IL

1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATES THIS EVENING WERE MAINLY TO POP AND WEATHER, WITH MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP, DEWPOINTS, AND SKY.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ONCE THE FOG CLEARS AFTER SUNRISE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EASTERLY WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA AS WE REMAIN BETWEEN
A TROUGH ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN IL. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 10KT.

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...SHIMON
SHORT TERM...BARNES
LONG TERM...AUTEN
AVIATION...SHIMON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS LOUISVILLE KY

110 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2015

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Issued at 945 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 304 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Any convection tomorrow will be diurnal and should dissipate with
the setting of the sun, so will go dry for Monday night with warm,
muggy conditions once again.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Jul 26 2015

Tuesday - Thursday...

Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for highs
Tues-Thurs with the hottest day being Wed ahead of the front.

Friday - Sunday...

A dry end to the week looks likely behind the fropa with humidity
values dropping as well. Highs will fall back into the mid 80s to
around 90.

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated 108 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2015

Scattered shower activity (and a rumble or two of thunder) will
meander across the TAF sites through the overnight, although
coverage will be pretty hit or miss. Will only include VCSH for a
few hours. Main impacts overnight will be for ongoing haze and the
potential for some fog through the pre-dawn hours. Cloudy skies
don`t help confidence in just how low visibilities will go, but
given the very moist low level atmosphere and some obs sites already
MVFR, felt that some brief periods of IFR will be possible at
BWG/LEX. Will keep SDF in MVFR toward dawn.

A WSW wind will take hold through the daylight hours today, with
variable cloudiness and some haze hanging around. There is also a
chance for some isolated shower/storm coveage through the afternoon
hours as a frontal boundary hangs in the area, however will only
include at LEX for now. Winds will veer to NW and then variable as
the front passes late afternoon evening.

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

Update.........MJ
Short Term.....13
Long Term......AMS
Aviation.......BJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

403 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION JUST REFUSES TO DIE OVER THE CWA, WITH HIT AND MISS
ECHOES SHOWING UP THROUGHOUT THE PREDAWN HOURS IN A BROAD BAND ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. LARGEST AND MOST PERSISTENT AREA OF PRECIP
HAS BEEN OVER OUR SE COUNTIES SOUTHEAST OF STL METRO, WHERE IT
APPEARS VERY WEAK WAA INTERACTING WITH CONTINUALLY RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY IS ALLOWING CONVECTION TO REGENERATE. IN SPITE OF THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE VARIOUS
HI-RES EXPLICIT MODELS CONTINUE TO GENERATE SPOTTY CONVECTION OVER
ALL BUT OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES, AND JUDGING HOW THERMAL PROFILE OF
AMS IS NEARLY UNCHANGED CARRYING SOME LOW/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOKS
APPROPRIATE. HAVE PLACED HIGHEST POPS...SUCH AS THEY ARE...NEAR
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SUGGESTED AT BY NAM AND RUC FROM N OF COU
THRU STL AREA.

WITHOUT FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MORNING PRECIP, TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA SHOULD WARM NICELY TODAY. THERE IS EXTENSIVE UPSTREAM
CIRRUS FROM CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS, BUT IT SHOULD CERTAINLY THIN
AS CONVECTION WANES AND AS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE DRIFTS INTO THE
HEART OF THE RIDGE, AND HIGHS SHOULD EASILY REACH THE LOW TO MID
90S. DEWPOINTS ARE ALREADY WELL IN THE 70S, AND AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR FURTHER POOLING OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SO, ALL PARAMETERS POINT TO A VERY STEAMY
JULY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HEAT INDEX REACHING 105 DEGREES OVER MOST
OF THE CWA. GOING HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS ON THE MARK.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY REACH THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS
DURING THIS RECENT STRETCH OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH MID
90S COMMON ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RATCHET
UP A NOTCH FROM TODAY`S LEVELS, WITH FORECAST COMBO OF HOURLY
TEMPS/DEWPOINTS YIELDING VALUES IN THE 105-110 RANGE ACROSS THE
REGION. ITS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW LOCATIONS OVER SOUTHEAST PARTS OF
THE FA COULD ONCE AGAIN PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 105 ON
WEDNESDAY BUT THREAT LOOKS LOW AT THIS POINT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
TIMING AND LOCATION OF CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY FOR NOW.

CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SUGGESTS THAT THREAT OF CONVECTION SHOULD WANE EVEN MORE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SOME VERY LOW POPS THIS
EVENING...PRIMARILY FOR ANY LEFT-OVER AFTERNOON ACTIVITY...AND
ALSO CONTINUED SOME LOW POPS IN OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
TUESDAY WHERE MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL BE THEIR COOLEST.

OVERNIGHT MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE STILL BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE REGION LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BELIEVE THIS MAY
BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE THERE IS A BROAD BAND OF
CONVECTION THAT IGNITES ALONG THE COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
THIS BAND OF PRECIP HAVING TROUBLE WORKING SOUTH AS COLD
FRONT...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY OUTFLOW...OUTRUNS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH ALSO
LOOKS QUESTIONABLE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...AS CURRENT
FORECASTS INDICATE VERY LITTLE SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE NOTICIABLY
LESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ISOLATE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP...NORTHEAST AND TO THE SOUTH OF STL. THIS MOST LIKELY FROM
SOME OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH THE 850 MB
WIND. WIND BEGINS TO BECOME MORE PARALLEL TO THE FLOW BY 06Z AND
FINISHED THE PROCESS BY 12Z. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
CONTINUED SPOTTER DEVELOPMENT FOR SEVERAL HOURS YET. THE LATEST
HRRR-CR AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO AND PLACEMENT PRETTY WELL.
PRIMARY MODELS DEVELOP SCATTERED ACTIVITY MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH VERY LOW POPS IN THE FORECAST WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST.
WITH LIGHT WIND AND RECENT RAIN AT MOST LOCATIONS WILL GO WITH A
TEMPO FOR A COUPLE HOURS OF MORING FOG.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE IN THE AREA. DEPENDING ON LOCATION...MAY
CONTINUE THE VCTS A COUPLE MORE HOURS BEYOND 06Z. A LITTLE
CONCERNED WITH POSSIBLE FOG IN THE MORNING GIVEN RECENT RAIN. AS
USUAL THE MET GUIDANCE HITS CIG/VIS HARD WITH THE MAV VFR. WILL GO
AHEAD AND THROW IN A TEMPO FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MONDAY MORNING.

JPK

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS 94 80 97 81 / 20 20 10 20
QUINCY 91 75 94 74 / 20 20 10 30
COLUMBIA 94 76 96 75 / 10 10 10 20
JEFFERSON CITY 95 76 98 76 / 10 10 10 20
SALEM 91 75 93 77 / 20 20 20 20
FARMINGTON 92 75 94 76 / 20 20 10 20

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-
CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-
KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE MO-
MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1116 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST HRRR SHOW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AHEAD OF A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI. THE RAP SHOWS THIS SHORTWAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA BY 06Z.

BRITT

.LONG TERM: (MONDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

(MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HEAT INDICES OF
105 TO 110+ BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT
ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI AND HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO
INCLUDE THE ENTIRE CWA. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
WHICH WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO SLIGHT CHANCES BOTH DAYS.
BECAUSE OF THIS...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S AS 850MB TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 20S. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MIXING UP TO 850MB ON MONDAY AND CLOSE TO 800MB ON
TUESDAY. WITH DEWPOINTS WELL IN THE 70S GIVEN THE RECENT
RAINFALL...THIS WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 ON MONDAY
AND NEAR 110 ON TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO COOL DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY AS THE ECMWF/GFS SHOW A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE CWA THROUGH THE DAY. FORCING WILL NOT BE GREAT ALONG THE FRONT,
BUT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)

STILL EXPECT THIS TO BE A COOLER PERIOD AS THE POLAR FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA
BECAUSE THE UPPER FLOW BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL BE BECAUSE OF A BUILDING UPPER HIGH IN THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH IN THE EAST. WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH AGREE ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN CHANGE, THEY DIFFER ON JUST HOW FAST THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE
OVER THE AREA AND WHETHER A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION NEXT SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS DEPICTS SOME LIGHT QPF WITH
THIS FRONT WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. WILL ALSO GO WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN 850MB TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELCIUS.

BRITT

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1105 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

JPK

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN
MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-IRON MO-JEFFERSON
MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-MARION MO-MONROE
MO-MONTGOMERY MO-PIKE MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST.
CHARLES MO-ST. FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-
STE. GENEVIEVE MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-
BOND IL-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-
JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-
MONTGOMERY IL-PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON
IL.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON NC

131 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE JUST OFF THE COAST WITH
THE BEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. THESE SHOWERS HAVE
NOT BEEN ABLE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE AS THEY HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
MAINTAIN THEMSELVES AS THEY PUSH WESTWARD AND INTO THE DRIER AIR.
AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND THE COLUMN UNDERGOES
FURTHER MOISTENING IN THE LOWER LEVELS...SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ONTO THE MORE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION HRRR MODEL CONTINUES TO SHOW A FEW EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS BRIEFLY COMING ASHORE BEFORE DISSIPATING. WILL CARRY
SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER FOR MUCH OF THE BEACHES AND
IMMEDIATE ADJACENT LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM SUNDAY...WEAK AMORPHOUS PRESSURE PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A STALLED FRONT POSITIONED WELL
OFFSHORE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. A
LOW MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED FRONT ON MONDAY...BUT EXPECT IT
WILL HAVE NO REAL IMPACT ON LOCAL CONDITIONS. DEEP LAYER FLOW WILL
BE NORTHWESTERLY AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY SWINGS OFF EASTERN
CONUS WHILE FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE STAYS GENERALLY EASTERLY. THIS
SETUP WILL BRING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE READINGS BETWEEN BOTH DAYS. BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE ON TUESDAY AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN
AND MODEST INSTABILITY IS INTRODUCED...WITH DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE
PROFILES BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE. THE AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE FRONT
MAY ACT AS A TRIGGER TO TUESDAYS CONVECTION...ALONG WITH A
STRENGTHENING PIEDMONT TROUGH.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 06Z...MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE FOG. THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
PARTICULARLY INLAND AS RH`S HAVE ROCKETED UP FROM THIS EVENING.
BUFKIT SHOWS FAVORABLE VERTICAL CHANGE IN HUMIDITIES...AS WELL AS
LIGHT WINDS AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LOOK FOR FOG TO START TO SET UP
AFTER 07Z...WITH GREATEST INTENSITY FROM 10-11Z. BELIEVE LOWEST
VISIBILITIES WILL BE LBT.A QUICK BURNOFF IS IN STORE MONDAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED BY 13Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINANTLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ISOLATED AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
SCATTERED ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 130 AM MONDAY...WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WIND SPEEDS WILL BE UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2 TO 3 FT WITH
SOME 4 FT SEAS THROUGH LATE EVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK
11 SECOND SE SWELL WILL PERSIST.

A SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINS OF A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED TO OUR SOUTH...BUT MAY OSCILLATE
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD LEADING TO A SLIGHT SLACKING OF THE GRADIENT.

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

NEAR TERM...RJD/8
SHORT TERM...REK
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...8

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BISMARCK ND

1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LATEST LOCAL RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM EARLIER IN THE EVENING CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER
GRANT/SIOUX/EMMONS COUNTIES. MOVEMENT ON THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE
TAKING ON MORE OF A NORTHEAST TREND...AND THIS IS SOMEWHAT
SUPPORTED IN THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP13. THUS...HAVE COORDINATED
WITH ABERDEEN WFO TO CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SOUTH CENTRAL OVERNIGHT EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER
VALLEY. REGIONALLY...THE NEXT AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE THE
NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING WARM
FRONT/LOW LEVEL JET. THE NAM/HRRR/RAP13 SUGGESTS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRAZING OUR NORTHWEST CORNER TOWARD 12Z MONDAY. REST
OF FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LATER TONIGHT WITH POTENTIAL CONVECTION OVER
NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 840 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LINE OF STORMS IS MAINLY ALONG A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WHICH
HAS MOVED EASTWARD DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS/WINDS TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS.

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TOMORROW EVENING.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS CLOUDS/IFR CIGS TO AFFECT
KBIS/KJMS TOWARD 12Z MONDAY...HOWEVER WILL GIVE THIS SOME
ADDITIONAL TIME BEFORE GOING WITH A PREDOMINATE CLOUD GROUP. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF KBIS/KJMS THROUGH 12Z
MONDAY COULD PRODUCE LOWER CLOUDS INTO THESE TERMINALS WITH A
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND. OTHERWISE...A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21Z
MONDAY THROUGH THEN END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
VCTS AND TRY TO BECOME MORE SPECIFIC WITH THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

1142 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

LITTLE TO NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN WITH SUNDOWN. KEPT POPS IN THE NORTHERN DVL BSN FOR A
COUPLE MORE HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS. WINDS GUSTING TOMORROW AFTN
AROUND 25 KTS. CONVECTION INITIATES IN WESTERN ND AND MOVES EAST
INTO THE DVL BSN LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JK
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS WILMINGTON OH

207 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACRS THE NRN CWFA THIS EVENING WILL SHOW
ONLY A LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT. IN FACT...IT MAY
END UP LOSING ITS IDENTITY IN TERMS OF FRONTAL CONVERGENCE BY
MONDAY MORNING. OF MORE CONCERN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS IS AN
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANA.
THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THE HRRR IS THE ONLY
MODEL TRYING TO CAPTURE THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL INDIANA...MOVING IT SOUTHEAST BUT
WEAKENING IT AS IT PUSHES INTO OUR AREA. BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND
TRAJECTORY...FEEL THE NEED TO BUMP UP POPS FOR MEASURABLE PCPN TO
LIKELY...MAINLY FOR THE DAYTON METRO AND POINTS TOWARD THE SW CWFA
(TRI-STATE) REGION THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREAFTER...THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND AS THE
FEATURE MOVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF OUR SE CWFA. WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS...LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOWER 70S.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TO THE
VICINITY OF THE OHIO RIVER ON MONDAY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL COME INTO PLAY.
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I-70 MAY EXPERIENCE DRY WEATHER DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE AND A SLIGHTLY LESS HUMID AIRMASS WORKING INTO NORTHERN
OHIO.

ANTICIPATE SEASONABLE HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 80S...A BIT BELOW
GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MID LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NATIONS MID SECTION TO BUILD EAST
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY THIS WEEK. WILL LIMIT
ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ACRS THE FAR S-SW
CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY DUE TO LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING. HEIGHT/THICKNESS RISES WILL LEAD TO A WARM UP OF
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY RANGING FROM THE UPPER 80S NW
TO THE LOWER 90S SE.

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY WEAK WIND FIELD WITH A FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN
KENTUCKY WILL SEE SHOWERS SCATTERED ABOUT WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD
MOVEMENT THROUGH DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY AND THE EAST WIND IN OHIO VALLEY WILL
TURN MORE NE TO N AND SHIFT THE SOURCE REGION FOR SHOWER
INITIATION TO THE SOUTHWEST...KEEPING KCMH/KLCK OUT OF ACTIVITY
TODAY.

KCVG AND KLUK SHOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL LIGHTEN BACK UP WITH THE SETTING
SUN. EXPECT THE VERY MOIST AIR FROM EARLIER SHOWERS TO HAVE MVFR
FOG TO DEVELOP.

OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...CONIGLIO
NEAR TERM...HICKMAN
SHORT TERM...CONIGLIO
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...FRANKS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

413 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SOME MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WERE FORMING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BUT NO RAIN WAS OCCURRING. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 70S EXCEPT FOR A FEW LOWER 80S ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER.

WATCHING A DEVELOPING COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN IL
THAT IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS COMPLEX
MAY LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF WEST TN
ALONG THE TN RIVER INCLUDING PARIS...THUS INCLUDED A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AREA. THE HRRR AND RAP INDICATE ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO EXTREME NORTHEAST AR...THE MO
BOOTHEEL...AND THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
WEST TN FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY...THUS INDICATED SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR THIS AREA. ELSEWHERE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE
LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A STRAY THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE WITH
THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EASTWARD BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS TUESDAY WITH 500
MB HEIGHTS INCREASING TO 594 DM. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED
FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...PORTIONS OF WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS. THE
ADVISORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY. LATER FORECASTS MAY ALSO NEED TO CONSIDER
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS POSSIBLY TOPPING 110 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY POOL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WEDNESDAY LEADING TO GREATER HUMIDITY AND EVEN MORE
OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS.

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN WEAKENING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT INDICATING MUCH CONVECTION AND MINIMUM RAINFALL
WITH THE FRONT. NOT SURE ABOUT THIS CONSIDERING HOW WARM AND HUMID
IT WILL BE ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
WILL BE NON-EXISTENT. WILL MENTION A THREAT OF A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOW FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY MORNING. WELCOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL
OCCUR AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR FOLLOWS THE FRONT PERSISTING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA SUNDAY WITH INCREASING TEMPERATURES BUT
CONTINUED DRY WEATHER.

JCL

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE PERIOD. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD....GENERALLY FROM SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT TOMORROW.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

328 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...CENTERING OVER OKLAHOMA.
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS A DEG OR SO COOLER IN SOME AREAS THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL WARM. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
103 TO 108 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEL RIO TO
SAN ANTONIO TO BASTROP LINE. A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN NEAR EAGLE PASS
TO COTULLA MAY BRIEFLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 110.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS AND HWO HIGHLIGHTS.

LATE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU...WHERE A SLIGHTLY BETTER
POOL OF PWATS RESIDED AND AFTERNOON TEMPS HIT 100-105. SEVERAL OF
THE HI RESOLUTION MODELS HAD PICKED UP ON THIS YESTERDAY. THIS
MORNING SSEO HI RESOLUTION MEMBERS ALONG WITH TEXAS TECH WRF AND
SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR ARE KEYING IN ON THIS REGION
AGAIN TODAY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION. PWATS HAVE SLIGHTLY
DECREASED...BUT AN ELEVATED POOL DOES EXIST...POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY
FARTHER WEST THAN YESTERDAY. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE UPPER 90S ACROSS THIS REGION AND FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 98
TO 100 THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXISTS AGAIN
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED IN TODAY`S LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING FORECAST A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT POP ALONG AND
NORTH/NORTHWEST OF A PANDALE TO MOUNTAIN HOME TO LLANO LINE. A FEW
STRONGER WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT SHOULD THESE STORMS FORM.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING SOUTHWEST BACK ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX TEMPS MAY INCREASE A DEG OR TWO
DURING THIS TIME. THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...CENTERING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEEP EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. PWAT
VALUES OF AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES POOL INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE
ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...WHERE
ISOLATED POPS ARE FORECAST. POPS SPREAD WESTWARD FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME LOOKING TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
RIDGE EXPANDS BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 98 76 98 75 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 97 75 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 96 73 96 73 98 / - - 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 101 78 100 78 99 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 75 98 / - - 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 98 75 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 97 75 97 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 97 76 97 75 98 / - - 10 0 -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 98 76 98 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 99 76 98 75 99 / 0 0 - 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

119 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 119 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2015

STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUST TO AROUND 50 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
HAIL 1 INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY
THIS EVENING.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 246 PM MDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR WYZ301-302-304-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...CLH
SHORT TERM...GCC
LONG TERM...ZF
AVIATION...TJT
FIRE WEATHER...GCC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHARLESTON SC

719 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS CEASED NOW THAT THE SUN IS COMING UP.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON
DEVELOPING SHOWER/TSTMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AN INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KSAV...SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH A RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR
UNTIL 9 AM. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM TO
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER
HARBOR...MAINLY NORTH OF THE RAVENEL BRIDGE.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

ST/SPR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

643 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TRUETT

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ISOLATED SH/TS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AT ALL TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE
IN SH/TS AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z
TAFS ATTM. EARLY MORNING FOG IN RIVER VALLEYS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE WITH THE ONSET OF DIURNAL MIXING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE AIR MASS TONIGHT WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO CONDITIONS LAST
NIGHT, THEREFORE FOG FOG OUGHT TO RE-DEVELOP AFTER 04Z TONIGHT
(ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS) GIVEN THE SIMILAR T-TD SPREADS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

KANOFSKY

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BOONE MO-CALLAWAY MO-
COLE MO-MONITEAU MO-OSAGE MO.

WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NWS BILLINGS MT

938 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS WAS A BIT AMORPHOUS WITH LOCATION OF COLD
FRONT WHICH WAS LIKELY CROSSING THE DIVIDE. THERE WAS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH WITH AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG IT FROM SE MT EXTENDING SW
THROUGH WY. RADAR SHOWED BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
KTFX/S AREA SSW THROUGH KBTM INTO S ID. OTHER WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OBSERVED MOVING N THROUGH NE WY. ADJUSTED MORNING POPS TO
MATCH CAM MODELS WHICH DID NOT BRING MUCH PRECIPITATION EASTWARD
INTO THE AREA BY 18Z. DID ADD LOW POPS TO THE SE CORNER OF THE
AREA. CAM MODELS SHOWED TIMING OF CONVECTION TO BE AROUND 20Z
INITIATING OFF THE BEARTOOTHS/ABSAROKAS...THEN PROGRESSING E INTO
KBIL AREA AROUND 21Z THROUGH 00Z THEN MOVING FURTHER E INTO KMLS
AREA/SE MT BEFORE MOVING N OUT OF AREA AROUND 03Z OR SO. NOTED THE
NMM AND ARW HAD SLOWER TIMING THAN OTHER MODELS. PUSHED LIKELY
POPS A BIT FURTHER E THIS AFTERNOON.

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A STRATUS LAYER
EXPANDING AROUND KBIL DUE TO N FLOW INTO THE PRYORS. RAP HAD THIS
LAYER SCATTERING OUT AROUND 16Z-17Z...SO WILL SEE IF THIS PANS
OUT. WILL HAVE STRONG LIFT TODAY FROM A COUPLED JET AND Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE. PRECIPITABLE WATERS WILL BE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FROM
CENTRAL TO E ZONES. SHEAR WILL BE 40 TO 50 KT OVER THESE AREAS AND
CAPES WILL BE 500-1000 J/KG WITH HIGHER VALUES ALONG THE DAKOTAS
BORDER. CAM MODELS ALSO SHOWED FAIRLY HIGH UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES
OVER CENTRAL AND E. THUS SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
OVER SE MT. STRATUS MAY INHIBIT POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT OVER CENTRAL
ZONES.

FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT COMBINES
WITH COLD POOLS FROM CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT IN A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WILL REVISIT HIGH
WIND WATCH FOR TUE IN NEXT PACKAGE.

UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TUE...ALTHOUGH TUE LOOKED MOSTLY DRY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE E AND NE ZONES TUE.

NO CHANGES NEED TO RED FLAG WARNING IN THE PREFRONTAL ENVIRONMENT.
ARTHUR

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND TUE...

ACTIVE WEATHER THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WITH THUNDERSTORMS...A
STRONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY WITH
WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TUESDAY. WATER VAPOR SHOWING A
A DEEP TROUGH AND UPPER LOW MOVING ONTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
COAST WITH TWO VORT MAXES...ONE CENTERED OVER OREGON AND THE
SECOND MOVING INTO NEVADA. THIS WILL PROVIDE A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
EAST...IT WILL SWEEP A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. TIMING
LOOKS TO BE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OUR FAR WESTERN AREAS...LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AREAS AND LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR THE FAR EAST. AS A RESULT...A LARGE
TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE FOR HIGHS WILL EXIST TODAY RANGING FROM 60S
WEST TO THE LOWER 90S EAST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS INCREASING IN
COVERAGE BEHIND THE FRONT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ADDED A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM YELLOWSTONE COUNTY
EASTWARD AND AN ENHANCED RISK ACROSS THE EXTREME EASTERN AREAS OF
THE STATE. BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE FROM CUSTER AND POWDER RIVER
COUNTIES EASTWARD BUT ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DAKOTA BORDER. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS AND HAVE ADDED THIS
MENTION TO THE GRIDS.

IN ADDITION...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES...LOW
HUMIDITIES...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM RISK AND STRONG WINDS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL RESULT IN RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS OUR
EASTERN AREAS WHERE A REG FLAG WARNING IS IN PLACE. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY INTO THIS
EVENING WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG AND NORTH OF A MILES CITY-BILLINGS-
LIVINGSTON LINE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...THE DEEP SURFACE LOW WILL PROVIDE FOR WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES EAST
AND NORTH OF BILLINGS.

LASTLY...850MB WINDS TUESDAY ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE AROUND
45-50KTS AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS 35-40KT WINDS FOR MILES CITY AND
BAKER. WILL ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR TUESDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN ROSEBUD...CUSTER...FALLON AND CARTER
COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS LOOK TO HAVE THE TIGHTEST PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM THE SURFACE LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THAT TIME PERIOD. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR WED...THU...FRI...SAT...SUN...

MAINLY DRY EXTENDED PERIOD WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE MAINTAINING GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE REGION WITH A DRY AIRMASS. WEAK INTRUSION OF
MONSOONAL FLOW INTRODUCES SOME CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOWED A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHING BUT
WASHING OUT ON SATURDAY NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE.
BORSUM &&

.AVIATION...

AS OF 15Z A COLD FRONT IS ENTERING WESTERN ZONES NEAR LVM AND
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE GENERATING AN UPSLOPE 1400FT STRATUS DECK
OVER BIL. THIS STRATUS DECK THAT IS GENERATING MVFR CIGS SHOULD
ERODE BY 18-20Z AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO BIL. THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PROGRESS EAST AND
GENERATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AROUND LVM
FROM 18-20Z...BIL 21-23Z...SHR 22-01Z...AND MLS 23-02Z. AFTER THE
INITIAL LINE OF STORMS VCSH...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

DOBBS

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

TDY TUE WED THU FRI SAT SUN
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 077 051/075 052/085 057/092 060/094 061/090 061/090
6/T 42/W 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B
LVM 067 048/074 045/083 051/089 053/092 054/089 055/088
6/T 43/T 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 22/T
HDN 083 051/076 051/087 055/094 058/096 059/092 059/091
6/T 62/W 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B
MLS 090 055/072 052/086 058/093 061/095 061/092 061/089
3/T 83/T 21/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B
4BQ 094 053/074 051/086 056/093 060/095 061/093 060/089
3/T 42/W 11/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B
BHK 095 056/071 050/084 055/090 057/092 058/090 058/086
4/T 73/T 21/U 00/U 01/U 11/U 11/B
SHR 087 047/074 045/083 053/091 055/093 056/091 056/088
3/T 32/W 00/U 00/U 00/U 01/U 12/T

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 30>33-36>38-57-58.
HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES 31>33-37.
WY...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR
ZONES 98-99.

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

1039 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
CONTINUED WARM TEMPERATURES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY AND SETTLE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION ON FRIDAY. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED JUST SOUTH OF
THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ROUNDING THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THIS ENERGY LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC...CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON DEWPTS
MIXING OUT ACRS THE PIEDMONT...INTO THE LWR-MID 60S. THIS COUPLED
WITH WARM MID LVL TEMPS SHUD LIMIT CAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. IN THE MTNS...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. DESPITE
THE WEAK BUOYANCY AND SHEAR...THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS AS
WELL AS THE NAM AND RAP SHOW FAIRLY STOUT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTN...ROLLING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE GFS
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...LIKE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT DEWPT
TRENDS AND THE 12Z GSO/FFC SOUNDINGS...I THINK THE GFS IS MORE
REALISTIC...AND THAT LINES UP WITH THE CURRENT FCST...WHICH IS CHC
POPS ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE REST OF THE FCST IS ON TRACK AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 1 DEGREE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

TONIGHT...THE VORT SHOULD SLIDE SE OF THE FA...AS H5 HEIGHTS REMAIN
ABOVE 590 DM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD
GRADUALLY STABILIZE AFTER SUNSET. I WILL INDICATE A SLOW DECREASE IN
POPS OVERNIGHT...REMAINING SCHC ACROSS THE NRN NC MTNS AND FOOTHILLS
THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM
THE U60S WITHIN THE MTN VALLEYS TO LOW 70S EAST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING EACH DAY ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE SRN
APPALACHIANS. DESPITE THE RIDGING ALOFT...THE NAM GENERATES
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY BOTH TUE AND WED AFTERNOONS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MTNS...WHILE THE GFS PROFILES ARE MORE RESERVED. A BLENDED
APPROACH SUGGESTS SCATTERED CONVECTION FOCUSING PRIMARILY ON THE
MTNS WITH SOME LATE DAY BLEEDOVER INTO THE ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND
POSSIBLY OUT ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. MAXES SHOULD BE
ABOUT A CATEGORY ABOVE CLIMO...WITH MILD MINS SOME TWO CATEGORIES
ABOVE CLIMO.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 AM EDT MONDAY...HEIGHTS WILL FALL THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE UPPER RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
PERMIT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY
EVENING AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY. INSTABILITY MAY POOL ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER A NIGHTTIME LULL
IN CONVECTION...THE BEST COVERAGE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BE ALONG THE SRN
TIER CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY.

TROUGHINESS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EAST AS A DEEP VORTEX SETS UP OVER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT LOW LEVELS...WEAK
SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW MAY DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LIKELY REMAINS
STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION. A FAIRLY SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
BE NEEDED WITH MUCH BETTER VALUES ACROSS THE SRN TIER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
BOTH DAYS AND 70S IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT KCLT...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH MIXING THIS MORNING...THEN
STRENGTHENING TO 6 KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY
APPEARS LIMITED TO LESS THAN 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CAMS
INDICATE THAT A TSRA CLUSTER MAY DEVELOP NEAR KGSO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SLIDE SE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. COVERAGE OF
ANY CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF KCLT...SO NO MENTION WILL BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAF. LATEST MOS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT
DEPRESSIONS MAY CLOSE TO 3 TO 4 DEGREES BY SUNRISE TUESDAY...TOO
WIDE TO MENTION FOG.

ELSEWHERE...WIDE DEWPOINT DEPRESSION ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
WILL LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING. MIXING TO 5 TO 6KFT THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD RESULT IN DEWPOINTS FALLING IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...WITH THE GREATEST
VALUES OVER THE MTNS. I WILL GIVE KAVL AND KHKY A MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON PROB30...ELSEWHERE TERMINALS APPEAR DRY. WINDS SHOULD
FAVOR A LIGHT SOUTH WIND DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...KAVL NNW.
LATEST OBS AND MOS SHOW THE CLOSEST DEPRESSIONS WITHIN THE MTN
VALLEYS AND AREAS OF AFTERNOON RAINFALL. I WILL INDICATE 4 SM BR FOR
KAVL AND KHKY AFTER 5Z.

OUTLOOK...A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
THROUGH MID WEEK. A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
STATE LATE IN THE WEEK...WITH THE LIKELY PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL INCREASE EACH DAY THIS
WEEK.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

14-20Z 20-02Z 02-08Z 08-12Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAVL HIGH 88% HIGH 100% HIGH 95% HIGH 100%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 95%

THE PERCENTAGE REFLECTS THE NUMBER OF GUIDANCE MEMBERS AGREEING
WITH THE SCHEDULED TAF ISSUANCE FLIGHT RULE CATEGORY. COMPLETE HOURLY
EXPERIMENTAL AVIATION FORECAST CONSISTENCY TABLES AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS
ARE AVAILABLE AT THE FOLLOWING LINK: (MUST BE LOWER CASE)

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...NED

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

613 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE
WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MKL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SHALLOW FOG CONTINUES TO PERIODICALLY REDUCE VISBYS BELOW
3SM THIS MORNING BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF BY 14Z. DURING THE DAY
ON MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AT MKL WITH ALL OTHER TERMINALS LIKELY REMAINING
DRY. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AGAIN AT MKL OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR
REDUCTIONS IN VISBYS EXPECTED.

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1059 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER IS STILL
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING 1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TEMPS SHOULD
RAPIDLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 100-102
DEGREE RANGE OUT THERE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 108-110. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS IN
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
WILL SCATTER TO VFR. THE ONGOING PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS FORMING OVERNIGHT.

DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY...CENTERING OVER OKLAHOMA.
A SLIGHT DECREASE IN 1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES THE NEXT TWO
DAYS WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS A DEG OR SO COOLER IN SOME AREAS THAN
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT STILL WARM. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
103 TO 108 RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF A DEL RIO TO
SAN ANTONIO TO BASTROP LINE. A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN NEAR EAGLE PASS
TO COTULLA MAY BRIEFLY SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO AROUND 110.
WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS AND HWO HIGHLIGHTS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING SOUTHWEST BACK ACROSS TEXAS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THICKNESS VALUES INCREASING SLIGHTLY
OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MAX TEMPS MAY INCREASE A DEG OR TWO
DURING THIS TIME. THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...CENTERING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. A DEEP EAST TO
NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. PWAT
VALUES OF AROUND 1.8-2 INCHES POOL INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. THE FRINGES OF THE MOISTURE
ARRIVE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES AS EARLY AS THURSDAY...WHERE
ISOLATED POPS ARE FORECAST. POPS SPREAD WESTWARD FRIDAY AND
POSSIBLY INTO SATURDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...WITH COVERAGE AT
THIS TIME LOOKING TO REMAIN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED. THE
RIDGE EXPANDS BACK TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH DRY AND
WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD. MVFR CIGS IN
AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO WILL LINGER UNTIL LATE MORNING WHEN THEY
WILL SCATTER TO VFR. THE ONGOING PATTERN WILL REPEAT AGAIN TONIGHT
WITH MVFR CIGS FORMING OVERNIGHT.

DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...RUNYEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

954 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TODAY...THEN STALL JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 940 AM EDT MONDAY...

PREFRONTAL SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST FROM THE BLUEFIELD
AREA TOWARD THE NEW RIVER AND ROANOKE VALLEYS THIS MORNING. AS
THEY ARE MOVING EAST...THEY ARE LOSING SOME INTENSITY. THIS AREA
OF SHOWERS WILL MOVES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON. IF
THE SUN CAN POKE OUT BEFORE THEN...RE-INTENSIFICATION COULD BRING
SOME STRONG STORMS TO THE PIEDMONT. AT THIS TIME...STRONG STORMS
ARE NOT FORECASTED DUE TO THICK CLOUDS OVER THE PIEDMONT.

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL
ENTER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MORNING`S SHOWERS HAVE
MOSTLY STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT AND ARE EXPECTED NOT TO BECOME
STRONG THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LIKE THE PIEDMONT...IF THE SUN
CAN SHINE THROUGH...DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR.

AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS
SOUTHERN WV AND FAR SOUTHWEST VA. THESE ARE A MOVING INTO THE BLF
AREA...AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT LWB AND BCB BEFORE THE MORNING IS
OVER. EXPECT BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FURTHER EAST BY
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED POPS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM IN ACCORDANCE
WITH HRRR TRENDS...WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT
SITUATION. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/CLOUD/QPF GRIDS AT
THIS TIME.

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG IT AND SKIRT THE REGION TO THE NORTH.
THE FRONT WILL SINK INTO THE REGION TODAY AND SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...AIDED BY SHORT WAVE ENERGY
STREAMING IN OUR DIRECTION IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE MIDSECTION OF THE COUNTRY. OVERALL DYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
WEAK AND INSTABILITY IS MODEST AT BEST SO THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
CONTINUES TO BE LOW. THIS BEING SAID...ALL OF THE LATEST SYNOPTIC AND
MESO MODEL GUIDANCE IS KEEN TO DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MORE EXPANSIVE SPATIAL COVERAGE THAN HAS OCCURRED
IN RECENT DAYS. MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE INCREASING TODAY AS SEEN IN THE
LOW LEVEL THETA/E FIELDS AND RISING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS A GOOD BET TO ACCOMPANY
STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTION SO ACTIVITY WILL BE DECLINING THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING AFTER SUNSET.

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE
REGION. COMBINED WITH EXPECTED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND ATTENDANT
CLOUD COVER...WILL BUY INTO THE GUIDANCE TREND WHICH SHOWS READINGS A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN WHAT OCCURRED ON SUNDAY...YIELDING READINGS
AROUND 90 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH LOW/MID 80S TO THE WEST. TONIGHT
WILL BE MUGGY WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING AND LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER
70S EAST TO MIDDLE 60S WEST.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

THE WEAK COLD FRONT OF TODAY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE BY TUE MORNING...BUT BECOMING VERY WEAK AND
DIFFUSE AND DIFFICULT TO FIND IN THE MODELS. HOWEVER...IT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AS ENOUGH OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE TO SERVE AS A
FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S.
THROUGH TUE...WITH 590DM+ HEIGHTS ALOFT AND WARM 500MB TEMPS. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO PUT A LID ON ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. THE
COMBINATION OF THE DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD FOCUS THE BEST CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST VA AND NORTHWEST
NC INTO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE PIEDMONT COUNTIES IN THE CWA.
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET TUESDAY.

FOR WED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE
REGION...PERHAPS LINGERING ACROSS SW VA/NW NC...WHICH MAY AGAIN
SERVE AS A WEAK FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. THE STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL U.S. BEINGS TO RETROGRADE INTO
THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AS LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WILL DRIVE THE NEXT FRONT INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
OVERALL...CONVECTION SHOULD BE AT A MINIMUM WEDNESDAY...BUT AS
NOTED...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA...FAVORING AREAS WEST OF I-77. LATE WED NIGHT OR EARLY
THU...DIMINISHING CONVECTION COULD REACH THE WESTERN BORDER OF THE
CWA IF EXPECTED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OH VALLEY HOLD TOGETHER
THAT LONG.

THU SHOULD IN THEORY BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION TO THE CWA ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT. INSTABILITY
WILL BE MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
THE REGION THU MORNING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORNING CLOUD DEBRIS
AND LIGHT SHOWERS COULD INHIBIT MORE ROBUST CONVECTION LATER IN
THE DAY. LATEST MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO DECREASE THE THREAT FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THURSDAY. WHAT THERE IS MAY BE FOCUSED
MOSTLY EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE DURING THE AFTERNOON WHERE HEATING
WILL BE BETTER WITH LESS MORNING CLOUD COVER AND WHERE THE FRONT
IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED BY AFTERNOON. FOR ALL THREE DAYS AT
THIS POINT...NO MORE THAN CHANCE POPS WARRANTED AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LOW TEMPS WITH DEWPOINTS HOVERING IN THE 65 TO
70 RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST
DAY OVERALL BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS...WITH 850MB TEMPS HOVERING
AROUND +20C...SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS...AND PRE-FRONTAL CONDITIONS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS THAN NOTED
THE PAST FEW DAYS AND OVERALL ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. BECOMES DEEP
ENOUGH AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS WEST INTO THE CA/AZ
REGION...TO PUSH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES BEFORE IT STALLS. CONSEQUENTLY...ANY SUBSEQUENT LOW
PRESSURE OR TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF THE REGION RIDING ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AT THIS
TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS MOISTURE WILL TRACK FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO IMPACT ANY OF OUR REGION. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE
IF THE MODELS STICK WITH THIS LATEST TREND. DEWPOINTS DROP INTO
THE 50S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 60S PIEDMONT FRI- SUN...WITH
INDICATED INSTABILITY AT A MINIMUM...ACTUALLY QUITE STABLE FOR
LATE JULY INTO EARLY AUGUST. BY MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES DEEPENS AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO THE
AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION.

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS DROP. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT MONDAY...

AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CWA AND WILL LIKELY IMPACT BLF...AND
POSSIBLY LWB AND BCB WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND POCKETS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. COULD BE A PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT BLF/LWB/BCB THROUGH 15Z AS A RESULT. MOST
MODELS AGRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...AND IF CURRENT
TREND IS A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME...MODELS MAY BE ON THE RIGHT
TRACK. FOCUS WILL BE ON A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND A FAIRLY
HEALTHY SHORT WAVE TRACKING ESE FROM THE OH VALLEY...SLATED TO
ARRIVE DURING THE AFTERNOON. MORNING ACTIVITY MAY DICTATE WHERE
AFTERNOON ACTIVITY FORMS...WHICH COULD AT THAT POINT BE MAINLY
EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. HAVE RETAINED VCTS IN ALL TAFS AS IN THE
06Z SET...BUT HAVE NOT IDENTIFIED ANY TEMPO OR PROB30 GROUPS FOR
SPECIFIC PERIODS OF MORE LIKELY TSRA AT THIS POINT.
AGAIN...CONVECTION MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR-IFR CIGS/VSBYS...BUT
TIMING NOT CERTAIN. OUTSIDE CONVECTION...WHICH MAY LINGER INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...BUT SHOULD BE DONE BY 04Z...MOIST GROUND AND LOWER
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALLOW FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF RADIATIONAL FOG.
HOWEVER...PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL DECK MAY TEND TO INHIBIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR-IFR BR AT MOST TAF SITES...WITH
LIFR AT LWB WHERE WET GROUND AND CALM WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
BETTER FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. WINDS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BUT WILL TEND TO
LEAN TOWARD THE SSE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...AND SSW WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. SPEEDS 5KTS OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD...EXCEPT IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPEED THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.
LOW CONFIDENCE IN WIND DIRECTION THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...
MODELS APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/
EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS EARLY EACH MORNING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...MBS/NF/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

752 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS DROP. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT MONDAY...

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...MBS/NF/RAB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS PHOENIX AZ

221 PM MST MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEAR-ZERO ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS...AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM TUESDAY ONWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION WILL THEN REDUCE STORM CHANCES
SOMEWHAT THROUGH INTO THE WEEKEND.

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EVIDENT ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTO TODAY
ACROSS OUR REGION. SOME VERY THIN CIRRUS IS MOVING NERD OVER PINAL
AND GILA COUNTIES AND JUST A BIT OF BUILDING CU OVER SRN GILA COUNTY
AS WELL AS FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW THE SERN THIRD OF ARIZONA MOIST LAYER ALOFT...SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. SOME TSTM ACTIVITY IS EVIDENT
SOUTH OF THE BORDER IN NOGALES STATE AS WELL AS SOME LOW GRADE TSTM
ACTIVITY IN PIMA AND COCHISE COUNTIES.

DEW POINTS ARE MUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY WITH MOST VALUES IN THE
50S...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES HIGHER. TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN
REMAINING NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR TODAY.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER TEXAS...THIS HAS BEEN A
PERSISTENT FEATURE FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A STRONG TROUGH IS ALIGNED OVER
THE NORTHWEST...ALONG ERN WA AND OR. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CELL
IS CENTERED OVER SRN BAJA CA. THE TX HIGH AND BAJA LOW ARE HELPING
TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP INTO AZ AND NM. GFS MODEL INDICATING A
STRENGTHENING OF THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THUS
SIGNALLING A RETURN OF THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON FOR ARIZONA...AND LIKELY
SRN CA AS WELL. INDEED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PREDICTS STRONG RISE IN
PWATS...GOING FROM ABOUT 0.8 IN NOW UP TO 1.8 BY THURSDAY WITH A
SATURATED PROFILE AT MID AND UPR LEVELS. HRRR AND OUR WRF4KM SHOW A
MARKED INCREASE IN CONVECTION BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. TUESDAY ACTIVITY MORE LIKELY TO REMAIN
MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA...BUT THAT OFTEN BRINGS WITH
IT A GOOD CHANCE FOR BLOWING DUST AND MAYBE EVEN DUST STORMS IN LATE
AFTN AND EARLY EVENING. THE WRF FOR WEDNESDAY EVEN BRINGS A STRONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH...GENERATED FROM EXTENSIVE CONVECTION
PREDICTED FROM PIMA COUNTY STORMS. CLEARLY WE WILL HAVE AN ACTIVE
MONSOON PERIOD BEGINNING TUESDAY WITH ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS AND
POTENTIAL FOR DUST STORMS. AN AREA OF BLOWING DUST WAS ADDED TO OUR
GRIDS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

BEYOND FRIDAY...WE WILL RETAIN ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE TO KEEP UP
SOME ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AS STRONG AS THE
TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BELOW NORMAL LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

.AVIATION...
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL...
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH SOME FEW CU NEAR
12K FEET THIS AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS. WINDS WILL FOLLOW
DIURNAL PATTERNS...BUT STILL EXPECTING A LATE SHIFT TO UPSLOPE
EASTERLIES TONIGHT. AFTERNOON OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 15 KTS
ALSO LIKELY. MONSOON ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE STARTING LATER ON
TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS ONLY SLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM
OUTFLOWS REACHING INTO THE DESERTS TUESDAY EVENING.

SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH...

A FAIRLY PERSISTENT SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY WIND EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY
WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BREEZINESS AT KBLH.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

.FIRE WEATHER...
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD MOISTURE WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK BRINGING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. A SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE MID LEVEL WIND FLOW SHOULD LEAD
TO SOME DRYING FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN NEAR
NORMALS WHILE MINIMUM AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO
A 20-30 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE DESERTS EACH DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT EACH DAY ASIDE FROM AFTERNOON BREEZINESS AND POTENTIAL
FOR STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS.&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD
OPERATING PROCEDURES.

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...WATERS
AVIATION...KUHLMAN
FIRE WEATHER...KUHLMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RENO NV

212 PM PDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
WILDFIRES ON THE WEST SLOPES MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF HAZE ALONG THE
SIERRA CREST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE WEEK WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE UP INTO THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY, WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

.SHORT TERM...

NEXT COUPLE DAYS WILL BE CLEAR AND DRY IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHTS
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 700MB TEMPS ACROSS NORTHERN NV ARE FAIRLY
COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GIVEN LOW PW VALUES (1-2.5 PERCENTILE)
WE SHOULD SEE APPRECIABLE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST WILL PROMPT A WARMING TREND WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THICKER SMOKE FROM THE WEST SLOPE WILDFIRES SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN
OUT OF THE EASTERN SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH E/NE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. I WILL CONTINUE A MENTION OF
HAZE RIGHT ALONG THE CREST THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AS HRRR GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE WESTERLIES SNEAKING IN,
EXTENDING TO ABOUT 5-10 MILES EAST OF THE CREST. CS

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
THURSDAY WITH A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

BY THURSDAY TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN NEVADA WILL BE NEAR THE 100
DEGREE MARK AND STAY IN THE UPPER 90`S UNTIL THE COOLING AFFECTS
OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGIN TO MODERATE THE TEMPERATURE OVER THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY THE HOTTEST TIME OF THE YEAR FOR
WESTERN NEVADA AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING AROUND 4-6 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE.

THE MORE IMPACTFUL PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY BE THE RETURN
OF ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM PATTERN AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY LOOKS LESS IMPRESSIVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BUT A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE SIERRA CREST,
MAINLY SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE. AS WE GO INTO THE WEEKEND, AND INTO
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. DETAILS OF THE THUNDERSTORM PATTERN ARE STILL COMING
INTO FOCUS, BUT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEKEND IN THE
SIERRA OR WESTERN NEVADA KEEP AN EYE ON THE FORECAST AND MAKE A
PLAN FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TOLBY

.AVIATION...

VFR WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SURFACE WINDS TODAY
GENERALLY NNE BECOMING EAST ON TUESDAY. TOLBY

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS ALBANY NY

434 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 434 PM...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY...CENTRAL BERKSHIRE COUNTY...SOUTHWESTERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY
CONNECTICUT AND FAR SOUTHERN WINDHAM COUNTY IN VERMONT. CELL
MOVEMENT HAS GENERALLY BEEN TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 MPH.

TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN TO THE UPPER
80S IN MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS. SURFACE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE.

EXPECT STORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET AND THEN THEY
SHOULD WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE. LATEST HRRR HAS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY
OVER BY 01Z WITH THE LAST ECHO DISSIPATING BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

.SHORT TERM /8 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HEAT WILL BE THE STORY THIS WEEK.

A RIDGE BUILDING IN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FOR
MAINLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY
CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY OVER THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE REGION AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THERE WILL
BE LESS CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE...AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS POSSIBLE.

LOW TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH SOME 50S
TONIGHT IN THE NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS. ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...LOWS MAY NOT GO BELOW 70 IN THE NORMALLY WARMER
LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ROUNDING OUT THE MONTH OF JULY AND HEADING INTO AUGUST...THE LONG
TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE WITH WARM...BUT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND DECREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND AGAIN HEADING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE REGION WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK LIKELY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THERE ARE STILL SOME QUESTIONS AS TO HOW
STRONG THE STORMS WILL BE AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...BUT SHEAR AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK MARGINAL AT
BEST. REGARDLESS...HAVE GONE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW CELLS THAT COULD BECOME LOCALLY STRONG TO
PERHAPS SEVERE...WITH HEAVY RAIN ALSO BEING A THREAT.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD EXIT THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY BUILD ACROSS THE REGION FROM
WEST TO EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES AND DRY WEATHER.

FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A NICE...BUT WARM DAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND LOWER
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR...DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE
50S...ARE USHERED INTO THE REGION WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE AN INFLUENCE ACROSS THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND...AS PIECES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROTATE THROUGH A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT.
THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY-DRIVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...LOOKS TO OCCUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE
WEST.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/HIGH PEAKS OF
SOUTHERN VERMONT...TO MID AND UPPER 80S ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN FAVORED DOWNSLOPE AREAS IN THE MID-
HUDSON VALLEY REACHING 90. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
AROUND HIGHER TERRAIN BUT AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE STAYING AWAY FROM
THE TAF SITES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SLOW MOVING...SO
UNLESS ONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPS VERY CLOSE TO A TAF
SITE...THE RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS
EVENING. ACKNOWLEDGING A VCSH FOR KPSF AND KPOU WHERE THERE IS A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEARBY THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING WILL END AFTER
SUNSET AND WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME FOG AND
LOW CLOUDS COULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT. INDICATING IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT KPSF AND KGFL...WITH MVFR AT KPOU AND
KALB. AFTER 13Z-14Z...RETURN TO VFR.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SOUTH TO WEST AT 6 KT OR LESS THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND VARIABLE AT 6 KT PR LESS
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
OVER THE REGION. WITH THE WARM...MUGGY AIR IN PLACE... ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WILL BE WEDNESDAY WHEN HIGHS IN VALLEY
AREAS WILL REACH WELL INTO THE 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE TO 80 TO 100 PERCENT AROUND
SUNRISE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AND FALL TO 40 TO 60
PERCENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS WILL BE BE FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT 5-10 MPH. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGER RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

.CLIMATE...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 90S UP THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 28TH...
ALBANY NY: 99 DEGREES 1929
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

JULY 29TH...
ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...SND/GJM
NEAR TERM...SND
SHORT TERM...SND/GJM
LONG TERM...IRL
AVIATION...NAS
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SND/GJM
CLIMATE...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MELBOURNE FL

301 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...RUC SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING A
SMALL LOW SPINNING IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WEST OF HERNANDO AND PASCO
COUNTIES.

RADAR MOSIAC LOOP SHOWING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS QUICKLY FILLING IN
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOME OF THE LOCAL MESONET SITES
RECORDING GUSTS OVER 30 MPH IN THE BRIEF FASTER MOVING HEAVIER
SHOWERS.

THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS IN/AROUND THE KENNEDY SPACE CENTER WERE
DETECTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE
DECK TO AROUND 8000 FEET. JUST IN...A 15Z/11AM SOUNDING FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL. THE MANDATORY LEVEL WINDS STRONGER...5 TO 10 KNOTS...THAN
THE 12Z/8AM SOUNDING. THIS TRANSLATES TO FASTER STORM/SHOWER MOTION
THAN IN PAST DAYS.

DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPULSES
MOVING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER FLORIDA AND THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES HIGHER THAN
THEIR CLIMO 40-50 PERCENT FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURES ALOFT
ARE STILL WARM ALOFT/500MB AT -4C AND -5C. THIS WOULD SUGGEST NOT
VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE THAT WOULD BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO
SHOWERS THAN STORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WILL LOOK AT A PRE FIRST PERIOD TO CATCH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
BEFORE SUNSET WEATHER.

TONIGHT...BOTH THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRFARW3 SHORT TERM MODELS FORECAST
THAT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET WHICH IS
BETWEEN 815PM AND 820PM THIS EVENING. WILL MOST LIKELY EXTEND SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL AROUND 10PM/02Z WHICH AGREES WITH HOURLY RADAR IMAGES
FROM LAST NIGHT.

TUE...NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH A MAYBE STORM IN THE
AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT...-5C AT 500 ...AGAIN WOULD
SUGGEST MORE SHOWERS/RAIN THAN STORMS BECAUSE OF THE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES NOT BEING VERY STEEP AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FORECAST TO
BE EVEN HIGHER...OVER 2.25 INCHES...THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THE ONLY
PROBLEM WOULD BE THE GFS MAV MOS WIDE SPREAD OF POP...FROM AROUND 80
NORTH TO 15 TO 20 IN MARTIN COUNTY. MAKES SENSE IF THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES "UNSTALLED" A LITTLE AND LIFTS NORTH.

PREVIOUS AFD

TUE NIGHT-WED NIGHT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/LOW WILL BE NORTH OF THE
AREA BUT DEEP MOISTURE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY TUE NIGH. MOS POPS
RANGE FROM 70 PERCENT IN THE NORTH TO 40 PERCENT IN THE FAR SOUTH ON
TUE. WILL FOLLOW CLOSE TO THOSE NUMBERS EXCEPT KEEP THE SOUTH AT 50
PERCENT SINCE THE GFS GENERATES CONSIDERABLE PRECIP ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA. MOS POPS DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY ON WED TO 30-40 PERCENT...
BUT CONSENSUS NUMBERS REMAIN HIGHER AND CLOSER TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.
THE GFS DOES NOT BRING MUCH...IF ANY...DRYING UP FROM THE SOUTH SO
WILL GO CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS NUMBERS...50-60 PERCENT.

THU-WEEKEND...WEAKNESS IN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE VICINITY OF FLORIDA IS
FORECAST TO MIGRATE ONLY SLOWLY WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
WILL ALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO BUILD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
BY THE WEEKEND...CAUSING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO BECOME SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS. BAND OF DEEPEST
MOISTURE...ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE TROUGH/WEAK LOW...SHOULD ALSO
CONTINUE TO MIGRATE WEST. HOWEVER...WITH STEERING FLOW MAINLY OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND MOISTURE NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...WILL PLAN
ON THE SCATTERED POPS (30-50 PERCENT) SHOWN BY THE CONSENSUS MOS.

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH MVFR CEILING SHOWERS WILL DOMINATE THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WEATHER...STORMS IN THE VICINITY UNTIL
8PM/00Z STILL A GOOD CALL FOR THE TAFS. THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILERS
AT/AROUND THE SPACE CENTER WERE DETECTING SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20
KNOTS FROM JUST OFF THE DECK THROUGH APPROX. 8000FT. GUSTY WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MAY BE ABLE TO
GET AWAY WITH 1-2 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS FOR ANY LATE AFTERNOON STORMS.

BEEN NOTICING/OBSERVING LOW...IFR...STRATUS ON MY EARLY MORNING
WALKS FROM AROUND 09Z TO LATE MORNING. WILL PUT SCT AT OR BELOW
FL010 FROM 28/08Z TO 28/15Z AND ISSUE AMENDS AS NEEDED TUE MORNING.

.MARINE...NOAA BUOY 009 AND 010 AT 20 AND 120NM OFF THE BEACH WERE
RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE TWO
NEARSHORE SCRIPPS BUOYS AT 4 AND 6NM OF THE COAST AND BUOY 009 AT
20NM WERE RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT SEAS.

EXPANDING THE SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION FOR WINDS TO ALL THREE
OFFSHORE MARINE ZONES.

FAST MOVING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS COMING OFF THE MAINLAND WILL
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN ON THE INLAND LAKES AND
RIVERS...THE INDIAN RIVER LAGOON AND AT LEAST THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS OUT TO 20NM.

TUE-FRI...SURFACE TROUGH NORTH OF THE WATERS AND ATLANTIC RIDGE
SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOUTHWEST WIND
FLOW. SPEEDS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO 15 KNOTS ESPECIALLY TUE NIGHT AND
WED IN THE OUTER WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 75 89 75 94 / 40 80 30 40
MCO 76 89 75 94 / 20 80 40 50
MLB 76 91 76 93 / 30 70 60 50
VRB 73 91 75 91 / 20 50 50 50
LEE 77 90 77 94 / 30 80 30 40
SFB 77 90 76 94 / 30 90 40 50
ORL 76 89 77 94 / 20 80 40 50
FPR 75 92 74 91 / 20 50 50 40

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

IMPACT WX...PENDERGRAST
FORECASTS...WIMMER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MARQUETTE MI

401 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP ANALYSIS INDICATED A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO
THE NW CONUS AND A RIDGE FROM THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE WRN LAKES
INTO NRN ONTARIO. AT THE SFC...SRLY WINDS PREVAILED FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO MN BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE CNTREL GREAT LAKES AND A TROUGH
OVER ERN MT/WY. ISOLD SHOWERS THAT HAD DEVELOPED ON THE LAKE
SUPERIOR BREEZE BOUNDARY FROM NEAR SAW TO ERY HAVE DISIPATED.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREAVILED WITH TEMPS INTO THE UPER
80S INLAND AND AROUND 80 ALONG THE GREAT LAKES SHORELINES.

A MID LEVEL LOW OVER MONTANA TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE NE
INTO THE SW CORNER OF MANITOBA BY TUE EVENING. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO SRN MN TONIGHT THAT MAY GENERATE
AN MCV THAT COULD SPREAD CLOUDS AND DIMINISHING SHRA/TSRA INTO WEST
UPPER MI TUE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTRNOON. EVEN THOUGH THE
CLOUDS MAY HOLD DOWN HEATING EARLY...EXPECT ENOUGH SUNSHINE BY
AFTERNOON TO PUSH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 60S WHICH HAVE TRENDED LOWER COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FCSTS
...EXPECT CAPPING WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH OVER MOST OF THE CWA TO
PREVENT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM DEVELOPING. SINCE THERE IS LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE IMPACT OF THE CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE
DAY...CONTINUED TO MENTION LOWER END CHANCE POPS OVER THE WEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

BY 00Z WEDNESDAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER W LAKE
SUPERIOR AND FAR W UPPER MI...EXTENDING THROUGH THROUGH W AND
CENTRAL WI. THIS WILL BE THE RESULT OF THE STRONG LOW SHIFTING NE
ACROSS S CENTRAL CANADA...SITUATED OVER S MANITOBA AT 00Z WEDNESDAY.
THE WRAPPED UP LOW WILL LIKELY FEATURE AN OCCLUDED FRONT STRETCHING
THROUGH FAR W ONTARIO...BEFORE SWITCHING BACK TO A WARM FRONT OVER W
UPPER MI AND A COLD FRONT OVER ORIENTED S THROUGH FAR W LAKE
SUPERIOR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO PUSH OVER W UPPER MI BY
06Z...STRETCH FROM AROUND MARQUETTE AND ALGER COUNTIES DOWN THROUGH
DELTA COUNTY BY 12Z...AND E OF UPPER MI BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A THIN LINE OF CONVECTION...TO START OUT THE EVENING.
FCST MODELS CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE IDEA OF THE S STORMS RETAINING
THEIR CONVECTIVE LOOK AND E PROGRESSION...WHILE UPPER MI MAY HAVE A
FEW MORE BREAKS. LIKE HOW THE SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKS HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS TREND. HEAVY RAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT AS PW
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2IN OVER THE W HALF PRIOR TO 09Z
WEDNESDAY...AND OVER THE E HALF OF UPPER MI 09-15Z WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE 5-10F COOLER THAN MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
MUCH DRIER AIR WORK IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. PW VALUES QUICKLY FALL
TO 0.75IN OVER THE W HALF BY 15Z WEDNESDAY...BEFORE MODERATING TO
AROUND 1IN IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE 500MB LOW OVER THE W HALF OF
ONTARIO SHIFTS A TROUGH OVER THE AREA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW
AFTERNOON HOURS W WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...AS WELL AS
INCREASED WINDS. A W-WNW 30-50KT 850MB JET WILL QUICKLY SWING
THROUGH MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. WENT TOWARDS THE LOWER END
OF GUIDANCE TO DEW POINTS...WITH HUMIDITY VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR
40 PERCENT CENTRAL IN THE AFTERNOON. THE TEMPERATURE RELIEF...BACK
TO SEASONAL NORMAL VALUES...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

DRY AIR SHOULD REMAIN IN CONTROL OF MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AS THE 500MB LOW PUSHES ACROSS HUDSON BAY. IF WE DO GET ANY PRECIP
IT WOULD LIKELY BE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...AS SEVERAL WAVE ROTATE
AROUND THE LOW IN W-NW FLOW. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S TO MID
80S...WARMEST S CENTRAL.

A STRONGER WAVE ROTATING THROUGH THE STEADY SFC-500MB LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY SHOULD SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS UPPER MI SATURDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS DISTANCE THERE ARE A FEW DISCREPANCIES ON STRENGTH AND
TIMING...BUT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR HIGH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS OR REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION OVER MN MAY MOVE INTO WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN TUE MORNING.
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY A LOW PROBABILITY OF MAINLY JUST WEAKENING
SHOWERS...NO PCPN WAS INCLUDED IN THE FCST AS VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015HIGH PRESSURE OVER LOWER MI WILL KEEP A RIDGE ACROSS LAKE
SUPERIOR THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY
FOG. DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER S SASKATCHEWAN TUESDAY MORNING WILL
RACE ACROSS MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS ONTARIO TO HUDSON
BAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR THIS LOW TO REMAIN ACROSS HUDSON BAY
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH THE
RETURN OF STRONGER WINDS. S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COULD GUST
NEAR 25KTS OVER MAINLY E LAKE SUPERIOR TUE NIGHT...WITH SW-W WINDS
AROUND 30KTS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS BY MIDDAY WED OVER THE
WRN LAKE.

THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT TO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
THURSDAY...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
THURSDAY. IT WILL QUICKLY BE REPLACED BY A WEAK TROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ROTATING AROUND THE HUDSON BAY LOW.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...JLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION

NWS ST LOUIS MO

1248 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TRUETT

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

(TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY)

(THURSDAY-SUNDAY)

ALL MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL TROF DEVELOPING OVER
THE EASTERN CONUS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WHILE HEIGHTS
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY RETROGRADES INTO THE WESTERN U.S.
ALTHOUGH NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE SUBTLY STORMY, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
GENERALLY TRANQUIL WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR AREA FOR THE LAST PART OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL, BUT THERE SHOULD BE
NOTICEABLYLESS HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S.

DID STAY WITH MODEL CONSENSUS THAT SUGGESTS SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PRODUCING A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY
SUNDAY IN SOME AREAS.

TRUETT
&&

.AVIATION: (FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FOR TAF SITES ALONG
I70 BY TUESDAY MORNING, WHILE KUIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO BOUNDARY
AND SEE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD
TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT TAF SITES, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR
NOW.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LINGERING JUST NORTH OF I70 CORRIDOR AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STALLING OUT JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER. IN THE
MEANTIME, DIURNAL CU WITH SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. AS FOR WINDS, TO REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
PICKING UP A BIT FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BY 15Z TUESDAY.
ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE BUT HARD TO PIN DOWN IF THEY WILL AFFECT
METRO AREA, SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR NOW.

BYRD
&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR AUDRAIN MO-BOONE MO-
CALLAWAY MO-COLE MO-CRAWFORD MO-FRANKLIN MO-GASCONADE MO-
IRON MO-JEFFERSON MO-KNOX MO-LEWIS MO-LINCOLN MO-MADISON MO-
MARION MO-MONITEAU MO-MONROE MO-MONTGOMERY MO-OSAGE MO-PIKE
MO-RALLS MO-REYNOLDS MO-SHELBY MO-ST. CHARLES MO-ST.
FRANCOIS MO-ST. LOUIS CITY MO-ST. LOUIS MO-STE. GENEVIEVE
MO-WARREN MO-WASHINGTON MO.

IL...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ADAMS IL-BOND IL-BROWN
IL-CALHOUN IL-CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-
MACOUPIN IL-MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-
PIKE IL-RANDOLPH IL-ST. CLAIR IL-WASHINGTON IL.

$$
WFO LSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

331 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM DEALS WITH CONVECTIVE
CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A SECONDARY CONCERN
IS THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR COOLER...AND
DRIER CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE WITH THE CONVECTIVE CHANCES ARE NOT AS HIGH AS
ONE WOULD HOPE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE RECENT PERFORMANCE OF THE
SHORT TERM MODELS. THAT BEING SAID...THE 12Z NAM WITH SUPPORT FROM
THE LATEST RAP AND SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATE TWO FAVORED
AREAS FOR DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE
FIRST IS ALONG A DRYLINE PUSH ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. CURIOUS
HOWEVER AS TO WHY THE MODEL IS SO AMBITIOUS WITH THE NORTHEASTWARD
EXTEND OF INITIAL CONVECTION INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...BUT ON
FURTHER INVESTIGATION...THE MODEL SEEMS TO BE KEYING ON A SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST LINE OF H7 FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING INTO THE AREA.
REGARDLESS THE LATEST MESOSCALE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS YIELDING
SUPPORT TO THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION. INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA IS SIGNIFICANT...BUT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS LACKING. STORMS MAY HAVE TROUBLE INITIALLY...BUT AS
A LLJ STRENGTHENS...CELLS SHOULD GROW UPSCALE INTO A EAST NORTHEAST
PROPAGATING MCS. AM CONCERNED WITH THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THIS
POINT AS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW NEAR RECORD PWATS AT KLBF BEFORE STORM
INITIATION...AND STORM MOTIONS OF 15KTS OR SO. IF THE CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MATERIALIZES LATE EVENING TO OVERNIGHT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTH AS WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE OVER 11K
FEET.

THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE JUST
UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA AS THE DRY
LINE/THETA GRADIENT MIXES EAST. HOWEVER THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE AMOUNT OF MIXING TODAY...AND GIVEN NO OTHER
DISCERNABLE FEATURES OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE CHANCES ACROSS THE SANDHILLS LATE AFTERNOON ARE IN
QUESTION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO BE FIXED ON A SOLUTION HOWEVER OF
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER/S/ SPREADING EAST WITH TIME ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SANDHILLS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA. THE HRRR PICKED UP ON THIS
SOLUTION EARLY...AND DID WELL WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION...SO WILL
HEAVILY CONSIDER THE GUIDANCE FOR THIS EVENING. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS LACKING AS OF NOW ACROSS THE SANDHILLS...BUT SLOWLY
INCREASES OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS...WITH SIGNIFICANT CAPE IN PLACE.
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
CONVECTIVE STORMS.

COLD FRONT ARRIVES DRY ASSUMING THE CONVECTION PLAYS OUT AS
INDICATED ABOVE...STABLE AND COOLER CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR
TUESDAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR RH VALUES DURING PEAK HEATING ON
TUESDAY ACROSS ZONES 204 AND 210...AS READINGS ARE SHOWN TO FALL
BELOW 20 PERCENT. FUELS HOWEVER ARE NOT SUSCEPTIBLE TO LARGE FIRE
GROWTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...CLEAR SKIES...LOWER SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
40S WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY COOL NIGHT. LOWS FROM THE UPPER
40S ERN PNHDL WITH LOWER TO MID 50S MUCH OF WESTERN NEBRASKA.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH DEWPOINTS
WEDNESDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S AND HIGHS AROUND 85...THIS
WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING TO ABOUT 25
PERCENT.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WRN NEBR
ON THURSDAY. BY AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
WEST OF VALENTINE THROUGH NORTH PLATTE THEN LINGER INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WITH NWRLY FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 90 THURSDAY THEN UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON A
HUDSON BAY LOW PERSISTING WITH AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINING ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN NEBRASKA.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

CONVECTION CHANCES HIGHLIGHT THE AVIATION FORECAST...WE
ANTICIPATED STORMS...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE ON THE STRONG TO SEVERE
SIDE...FORMING ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT STORM
INITIATION WILL OCCUR IN TWO FAVORED AREAS...OVER THE EASTERN
PANHANDLE AND OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. THEN STORMS ARE SHOWN TO
MOVE EAST NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...POSSIBLY IMPACTING
BOTH KLBF AND KVTN. THIS FORECAST FOLLOWS THE NEAR TERM GUIDANCE
OF THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN. OTHERWISE GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS AND
IFR /OR LOWER/ VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY
STORM THAT DEVELOPS.

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NORTH PLATTE NE

1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HAND ANALYSIS OF THE 07Z MSL DATA SHOWED A FRONT FROM A LOW ALONG
THE WYOMING-MONTANA LINE STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN NEBRASKA.
THERE WAS ALSO A LOW IN EASTERN NEBRASKA WITH A COUPLE OF
BOUNDARIES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS INDICATED THAT THE DRY LINE WAS
ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EASTERN COLORADO INTO THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. THE SURFACE MSAS INDICATED THAT THE THETA-E RIDGE WAS
JUST EAST OF THE DRY LINE. THE RADAR WIND PROFILES SHOWED A NOSE
OF THE LOW LEVEL JET BETWEEN THEDFORD AND RAPID CITY.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE FEEDING MOISTURE INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...THUS STRENGTHENING THE THETA-E RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG THE DRY LINE. CONVERGENCE IN THE THETA-E GRADIENT WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE NAM12 APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE TIMING.
HOWEVER...WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET EXTENDING INTO THE NEBRASKA
SANDHILLS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP THIS
MORNING. THE RAP13 AND GFS40 APPEAR TO FAVOR A LATER ONSET.
LOOKING AT THE 0-2KM THETA-E PROJECTIONS FROM THE THREE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE LATER TIMING MAY BE APPROPRIATE. STILL...THE
NAM12 SOLUTION CASTS ENOUGH DOUBT THAT I HAVE ONLY MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST TODAY. IN ANY CASE...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT MUCH LIKE IT DID
YESTERDAY WITH THE CONVECTIVE INITIATION OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA.
CURRENT IDEA IS TO USE A 2/3 BLEND OF THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH
THE OTHER MODELS AND GIVE MORE WEIGHT TO THE RAP13 AND THE
CANADIAN REGIONAL. ANYWAY...THE SHORT RANGE PROJECTIONS INDICATE
SUFFICIENT CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ENERGY AND 0-6M BULK SHEAR FOR
LARGE HAIL OVER THE NORTH AND SLIGHTLY MORE MARGINAL CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COLD FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OR NEARLY EAST OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY
MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO INCREASE SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AND
NOW LOOKS LIKE BY TUESDAY MORNING THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL ALSO BE EAST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
NICE DRY JULY DAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S. DECIDED WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TO GO ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

MODELS ALSO IN AGREEMENT WITH VERY DRY /FOR JULY/ AIR TO WORK IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. DEW PTS SHOULD EASILY DROP INTO THE 40S FOR MOST
IF NOT ALL THE CWA. SOME MODELS EVEN BRING SOME UPPER 30S INTO THE
PANHANDLE. WITH THE DRY AIR...MOS GUIDANCE IS TANKING TEMPS. SEE
NO REASON WITH THE LOW DEW PTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES IN
PLACE...WHY THIS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE REACHED. RECORD LOWS FOR
WED /29TH/ ARE FAIRLY WARM WITH MOST IN THE UPPER 40S. WILL HAVE
TO MONITOR THE BL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM SOME LIMITED PACIFIC MOISTURE TO SEE HOW LOW WE COULD FALL
TO. FOR EXAMPLE THE RECORD LOW FOR NORTH PLATTE IS ONLY 49
DEGREES...WHICH IS POSSIBLE. BOTH THE MET AND MAV GUIDANCE DROPS
THE LOW TO 50.

WEDNESDAY WILL AGAIN BE COOL WITH LOWER TO MID 80S FOR HIGHS AND
DRY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH TO THE EAST AS MORE ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPS. SFC FRONT STALLED OVER KS SO EXPECTING ANOTHER DRY
DAY.

THIS CHANGES AS WE GO TO THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE
ZONAL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH SEVERAL CLIPPERS
/SHORT WAVES/ TO MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/HIGH PLAINS.
ALSO GOING TO SEE SW/S WINDS DEVELOP AND HELP TO RETURN THE
MOISTURE. TIMING EACH PASSING WAVE IS DIFFICULT THIS FAR
OUT...BUT EACH WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ISOLD TO SCT STORMS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT PROVIDING FOR A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AND CONTINUED GUSTY CONDITIONS.

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...SPRINGER
SHORT TERM...SPRINGER
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...JACOBS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

308 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY. .

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
WEAK CONV FIRING ATTM OVER OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS.
SHRT TERM MODELS HAVE FCST THE INITIATION WELL AND CONT MAINLY LGT
CONV INTO THE EVE. XCPTN IS THE HRRR THAT ALSO FIRES SOME CELLS
ARND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO IGNORE THIS FOR NOW
AS VSBL/RADAR SHOWS NOTHING.

PWATS AND INSTABILITY MUCH LESS TODAY THAN YSTRDY AND WE LACK ANY
REAL TRIGGER FOR CONV...SO NOT XPCTG A REPEAT OF YSTRDY/S SVR/NEAR
SVR EVENT.

MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TNGT...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND WITHOUT
AFNT CONV...XPCT FOG TO BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NGT.

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SFC HIPRES AND UPR RDG BLDS TUE INTO WED. COMBINATION OF DRIER
AIR AND MID LVL WRMG WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONV DVLPMT DESPITE THE HTG
AS TEMPS RCH NEAR OF SLGTLY ABV 90F. WARMEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
DEEPER VLYS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND IN NEPA.

COLD FNT CRASHES INTO THE RDG ON THU BUT WHILE RDG
FLATTENS...PLENTY OF MID LVL WRM AIR APRNTLY STILL ARND LIMITING
INSTABILITY. UPR SUPPORT FOR THE FNT REMAINS WELL BACK OVER THE
LAKES AND MODEL FCST OF CONV WEAKENS THRU THE DAY THU. IN ANY
EVENT...A LEAST A CHANCE OF TSTM SEEMS RSNBL FOR THU.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
300 PM UPDATE...

A QUIET LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS (HIGHS IN THE 80S LOWS
IN THE 60S). THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR RAIN WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH A COLD FRONT.

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AT KAVP MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER HOUR AT MOST OF MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 19Z, OTHERWISE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED. VFR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
AT KELM, JUST NOT QUITE AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z. AT KBGM AND KAVP LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.

VFR TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR FOG AT ELM IN THE AM.

THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BINGHAMTON NY

234 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA AND BRING HOT
AND HUMID WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...FOLLOWED BY
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR FOR FRIDAY. .

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

WEAK CONV FIRING ATTM OVER OVER THE HIER TERRAIN OF THE CATSKILLS.
SHRT TERM MODELS HAVE FCST THE INITIATION WELL AND CONT MAINLY LGT
CONV INTO THE EVE. XCPTN IS THE HRRR THAT ALSO FIRES SOME CELLS
ARND THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HAVE DECIDED TO IGNORE THIS FOR NOW
AS VSBL/RADAR SHOWS NOTHING.

PWATS AND INSTABILITY MUCH LESS TODAY THAN YSTRDY AND WE LACK ANY
REAL TRIGGER FOR CONV...SO NOT XPCTG A REPEAT OF YSTRDY/S SVR/NEAR
SVR EVENT.

MUCH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TNGT...BOTH SFC AND ALOFT...AND WITHOUT
AFNT CONV...XPCT FOG TO BE MUCH LESS WIDESPREAD THAN LAST NGT.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

SFC HIPRES AND UPR RDG BLDS TUE INTO WED. COMBINATION OF DRIER
AIR AND MID LVL WRMG WILL SUPPRESS ANY CONV DVLPMT DESPITE THE HTG
AS TEMPS RCH NEAR OF SLGTLY ABV 90F. WARMEST AIR WILL BE OVER THE
DEEPER VLYS OF THE CNTRL SRN TIER AND IN NEPA.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
230 AM UPDATE...
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE GRIDS. UPDATED WITH THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE.
RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THEN DRY FRIDAY AND
PROBABLY SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. BOTH PRECIP EVENTS WITH COLD FRONTS.

245 PM UPDATE...
AFTER EXPERIENCING HOT WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
GRADUALLY FALL FROM MID WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR A
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL WEATHER FOR MID SUMMER. BEST SHOT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE THURSDAY WITH GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND EURO ON A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. 850 TEMPS FALL INTO
THE MID TEENS BY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR 80 FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK
BOUNDARY MAY BRING US ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIP SATURDAY BUT THIS FAR
OUT, KEPT IT AT OR BELOW 30% GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LINGERING CLOUDS AT KAVP MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER HOUR AT MOST OF MVFR
CIGS THROUGH 19Z, OTHERWISE A RETURN TO VFR IS EXPECTED. VFR ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN
AT KELM, JUST NOT QUITE AS EARLY AS LAST NIGHT. BELOW AIRPORT MINS
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z. AT KBGM AND KAVP LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z.

VFR TUESDAY.

.OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY...VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR FOG AT ELM IN THE AM.

THURSDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY...VFR.

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...HEDEN/TAC
AVIATION...HEDEN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS RALEIGH NC

325 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ALOFT INTERACTING WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IMMEDIATELY TO THE NW OF CENTRAL NC WILL BE A
FOCUS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL NC IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL. MEAN STEERING FLOW WOULD
USHER CONVECTION IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WESTERN NC-SW VA INTO THE
NW PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING. MAIN QUESTION IS HOW
FAR EAST-SOUTH DOES THE SCATTERED CONVECTION GO BEFORE DIMINISHING.
THE HRRR AND RAP BOTH SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAKES A RUN FOR THE
TRIANGLE AREA BUT DIMINISHES IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BEFORE
CROSSING THE REGION. CONSIDERING THAT A MINOR MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AXIS EXTENDS NW-SE ACROSS THE TRIANGLE...APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION
THAT EXITS THE NW PIEDMONT SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESS E-SE INTO THE
TRIANGLE AREA. THUS...PLAN TO MAINTAIN A CHANCE POP OVER THIS REGION
THROUGH MOST OF THE EVENING.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD GENERATE AREAS OF
FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS BY EARLY TUESDAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY DENSE FOG
AS VISIBILITIES SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN A MILE OR TWO. LOW CEILINGS
MAY COVER MORE OF THE REGION THAN WHAT OCCURRED EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ALOFT MAY
TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. MIN TEMPS 69-73.

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 325 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SFC TROUGH WILL REMAIN STALLED IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
BRIEFLY AMPLIFIES INTO THE WESTERN LAKES...VEERING FLOW ALOFT OVER
CENTRAL NC TO A NWLY DIRECTION. WEAK PERTURBATIONS EMBEDDED IN THIS
FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE STALLED SFC TROUGH AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION...MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION
APPEARS BEST IN VICINITY OF THE STALLED SFC TROUGH IN THE WESTERN
PIEDMONT...AND IN VICINITY WHERE THE PERTURBATIONS ALOFT TRACK
THROUGH THE REGION. THUS...POPS WILL VARY FROM SOLID
CHANCE(SCATTERED) ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT-NORTHERN COASTAL
PLAIN TO SLIGHT CHANCE(ISOLATED)OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING TUESDAY
EVENING THOUGH A FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO
PERTURBATIONS IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTING WITH THE MOISTURE
RICH AIR MASS OVER OUR REGION.

WHILE A STRONG OR SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BULK OF CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS POINT TOWARD MOST OF THE
STORMS REMAINING BELOW SEVERE CRITERIA.

MAX TEMPS TUESDAY HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXTENT OF EARLY MORNING CLOUDS
AND TIMING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. FAVORING PARTIAL SUN TO OCCUR
FOR MOST OF THE LATE MORNING-EARLY AFTERNOON...BOOSTING TEMPS WELL
INTO THE 80S-AROUND 90. IF LOW CLOUDS LINGER PAST NOON OR CONVECTION
DEVELOP BY NOON-2 PM...THAN MAX TEMPS MAY END UP BEING 3-5 DEGREES
COOLER THAN FORECAST. MIN TEMPS TUESDAY NIGHT 70-74.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM MONDAY...

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MID LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY TO START THE PERIOD (WEDNESDAY)... THEN RETROGRADING IT
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BY LATE WEEK. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD AS IT RETROGRADES...
HELPING TO AMPLIFY THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
CONUS. THIS SHOULD YIELD BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING FOR CENTRAL NC
LATE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH AND WEST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HOWEVER... THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF
CENTRAL NC... YIELDING GENERALLY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. QUESTIONS
STILL REMAIN IF THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA OR SETTLE
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC... AND RESULTANT HOW LONG
PRECIP CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL NC. FOR NOW WILL TO
TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
TO ADVECT INTO THE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG WITH
POTENTIALLY A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES LIFTING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND
ACROSS SOUTH/EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA. HOWEVER... DEPENDING ON HOW
FAR SOUTH AND EAST THE BOUNDARY MAKES IT WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF
THE AREA SEE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE
WEEKEND... ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. THUS... WILL
LIMIT POPS TO CHANCE FOR NOW BUT RAISE THEM A BIT... WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

HIGH TEMPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE NEAR NORMAL... GENERALLY AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...
WITH A FEW LOCATIONS TOUCHING THE LOWER 90S... DEPENDING ON THE
PRECIP. LOWS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AREA EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 125 PM MONDAY...

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT DRIFTING SOUTHWARD INTO NC FROM VA INTERACTING
WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL
GENERATE VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDINESS AND ISOLATED-SCATTERED
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON-THIS
EVENING...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILING/VISIBILITY DUE TO
CONVECTION IN THE TRIAD VICINITY...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 19Z-23Z. STILL
HIGH UNCERTAINTY WHETHER SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN THE KRDU
VICINITY AFTER 21Z SO HAVE OPTED TO OMIT AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR
CONDITIONS UPSTREAM.

AFTER 03Z...BULK OF ISOLATED-SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH BY
LATE EVENING THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AN INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SHOULD
LEND TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY STRATUS AND/OR FOG....ESPECIALLY
AFTER 09Z.

TUESDAY...EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT INTO A BROKEN
FLAT CU LAYER BY MID-LATE MORNING. AS ATMOSPHERE BECOME SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE..EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL NC IN
THE MID-AFTERNOON-EVENING HOURS.

THE PROBABILITY FOR EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS WILL REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE LESS LIKELY WEDNEDAY AFTERNOON AS A MID-UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL
WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW. THIS
TROUGH MAY INCREASE THE PROBABILITY OF SCATTERED CONVECTION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

SYNOPSIS...WSS
NEAR TERM...WSS
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...BSD
AVIATION...WSS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GRAND FORKS ND

327 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

RATHER WEAK SHORT WAVE OVER THE MID RED RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTN.
AREA OF MID LEVEL ALTOCU WITH THIS INTO PARTS OF NW MN AS WELL
GFK-DTL REGION. STILL COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THIS AREA AND WILL
CONTINUE MENTION THRU 23Z. OTEHRWISE WARM AIR ALOFT SEEN ON VSBL
SAT PIX WITH LACK OF CU FROM BISMARK AREA TO NEAR STANLEY ND TO
ESTEVAN SK. HRRR AND OTHER VARIOUS WRF MODELS QUITE SIMILAR IN
SHOWING ACTIVITY INCREASING 23Z-01Z IN ERN MT OR FAR WRN ND INTO
SE SASK AND THEN EVENTUALLY SPREADING EAST AND NORTHEAST..WITH
THREAT NOT INTO ERN ND TIL LIKELY AFTER 06Z. MOST SHORT RANGE
MODELS ALSO SO A SECOND AREA OF STORMS IN ECNTRL SD INTO CENTRAL
MN. ALL IN ALL BULK SHEAR IS PRETTY GOOD BUT MAIN MID LEVEL JET
AROUND THE BASE OF THE 500 MB LOW IS STILL WEST AND NORTHWEST OF
OUR AREA OVERNIGHT SO AT THIS POINT THE IDEA OF SEVERE OUTBREAK
FOR ERN ND/NW MN POINTS TOWARD ISOLATED AT BEST AS SOME CLUSTERS
OR A SQUALL LINE MOVES IN. COORD WITH VARIOUS OFFICES AND HAVE
SLOWED DOWN THE POPS A BIT MORE. SUNNIER AND LESS WINDY FOR
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...STILL EXPECTING A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WHILE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
OVER HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL PUT THE FA IN NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THE LONG TERM. THIS KEEPS THE FA IN A GENERALLY QUIET
PERIOD ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME LOW END PCPN CHANCES AT TIMES.
EXACTLY WHEN A TOUGH CALL AT THIS POINT WITH NO DECENT AGREEMENT
BETWEEN SOLUTIONS. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL
FOR LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONGOING COVNECTION EXITING THE RRV 12Z TUES AND EXITING NW MN BY
MIDDAY. DRY SLOT COMING IN AND PRETTY STRONG 925 MB WINDS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO CNTRL ND TUES AFTN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE/ECNTRL ND LATE TUES AFTN/EARLY EVE. AT THIS
POINT...MAY FLIRT WITH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME
DVL BASIN WITH ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS OTHER AREAS IN
ERN ND. NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED THIS FCST AS IT WILL PAST 18Z
TUES AND GIVES MID SHIFT TIME TO ISSUE PRODUCTS AS NEEDED.

WRAPAROUND CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO NE ND/NW MN TUES
NIGHT..EXITING LAKE OF THE WOODS WED MORNING. BREEZY
WEDNESDAY WITH A MIX OF CLOUD/SUN.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOWER BASED CUMULUS FIELD FORMED DOWN IN THE SOUTHEAST FA WHERE
THERE WAS SOME FOG THIS MORNING. IT QUICKLY EXPANDED UP THE RED
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. THINKING IT SHOULD DIMINISH THRU
THE AFTERNOON AS WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS MOVE IN. FAIRLY STEADY WINDS
SHOULD HOLD UP THRU THE NIGHT AND THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD PICK AGAIN
BY MID TUE MORNING. PUSHED BACK THE ONSET OF TSTMS TO 09Z AT KDVL
AND 11Z INTO KGFK/KFAR. MODELS SEEM TO AGREE ON LATER TIMING THAN
PREVIOUS SET OF TAFS...BUT THERE MAY STILL BE A LITTLE WIGGLE ROOM
IN THERE.

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GODON

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC

152 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM...CONVECTION IS FIRING A LITTLE MORE READILY THAN
CURRENT FCST TRENDS...AS A MID LVL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHAINS. CAPE IS STILL PRETTY LIMITED...WITH SPC MESO ANALYSIS
PAGE SHOWING GENERALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE. CAPE IS AT A MINIMUM
ACRS THE PIEDMONT...WHERE DEWPTS HAVE MIXED OUT TO THE MID 60S. THE
HRRR IS STILL PRETTY BULLISH ON CONVECTION THIS AFTN AND EVENING
ACRS THE ENTIRE AREA. I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT GRIDS FOR NEXT
UPDATE...BUT HAVE LEFT POPS AS IS FOR NOW.

AS OF 1030 AM...EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES CAN BE SEEN ROUNDING THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MOST OF THIS ENERGY LOOKS TO
REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA. AT THE SFC...CONDITIONS LOOK SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH WEAK AXIS OF HIGH PRES STRETCHING ACRS THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES ON DEWPTS
MIXING OUT ACRS THE PIEDMONT...INTO THE LWR-MID 60S. THIS COUPLED
WITH WARM MID LVL TEMPS SHUD LIMIT CAPE TO GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000
J/KG. IN THE MTNS...CAPE IS PROGGED TO BE A LITTLE HIGHER. DESPITE
THE WEAK BUOYANCY AND SHEAR...THE MAJORITY OF THE HIGH RES MODELS AS
WELL AS THE NAM AND RAP SHOW FAIRLY STOUT COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTN...ROLLING OFF THE BLUE RIDGE INTO THE PIEDMONT. THE GFS
KEEPS THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS...LIKE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT DEWPT
TRENDS AND THE 12Z GSO/FFC SOUNDINGS...I THINK THE GFS IS MORE
REALISTIC...AND THAT LINES UP WITH THE CURRENT FCST...WHICH IS CHC
POPS ACROSS THE HIGH ELEVATIONS AND THE I-40 CORRIDOR OF THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT. THE REST OF THE FCST IS ON TRACK AS WELL.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO PEAK AROUND 1 DEGREE COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AT KCLT...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD. CONVECTION IS FIRING ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AT THE TIME OF THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE STEERING FLOW WILL TAKE THE SHRA/TSRA TO THE
SE TOWARD THE TERMINAL. HOWEVER...THERE IS WEAK INSTABILITY ACRS THE
PIEDMONT TODAY. SO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BEFORE
REACHING KCLT. WITH THAT SAID...WILL HAVE A TEMPO FROM 21-24Z FOR
TS. THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT WILL BE OUTFLOW THAT WILL COME OUT OF THE
NW OR N. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS A N TO NE WIND THRU THE
EVENING...WHILE OTHER GUIDANCE PREVAILS SE. I THINK THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT NE...BUT THEN SHUD FAVOR SE OVERNIGHT. EITHER
WAY...SHUD BE UNDER 5 KTS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DEBRIS MID/HIGH CLOUDS...WHICH MAY LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL. UNLESS RAIN
IS MORE WIDESPREAD THAN EXPECTED...I THINK IT WILL REMAIN VFR. ON
TUESDAY...GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BETTER COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION STARTING AROUND MIDDAY. WILL LIKELY NEED A PROB30 WITH
THE 00Z TAF FOR TOMORROW AFTN.

ELSEWHERE...SO FAR CONVECTION IS FIRING ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...AS
EXPECTED. INSTABILITY REMAINS WEAK EAST OF THE MTNS...SO EXPECT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY TO REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MTNS. WILL PLACE KAVL AND
KHKY WITH VCTS FOR THIS AFTN. THE UPSTATE SITES WILL STRUGGLE TO SEE
CONVECTION TOO CLOSE...SO NO MENTION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND CLOUDS
GENERALLY 5000 FT OR HIGHER THRU TONIGHT. THEN ON
TUESDAY...INCREASED LLVL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR QUICK CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT BELOW 5000 FT. SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TOWARD
END OF 18Z TAF PERIOD. WILL MENTION PROB30 AT KAVL...WHERE
CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP EARLIEST. FOG POTENTIAL LOOKS LIMITED TO
KAVL AND KHKY...WHERE THEY ARE EXPECTED TO RECEIVE SOME RAINFALL
TODAY.

OUTLOOK...DECENT COVERAGE OF AFTN/EVE SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED EACH DAY
THRU THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE.

CONFIDENCE TABLE...

18-24Z 00-06Z 06-12Z 12-18Z
KCLT HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 93% HIGH 92%
KGSP HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 94%
KAVL HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 83% HIGH 80%
KHKY HIGH 100% HIGH 100% MED 79% HIGH 91%
KGMU HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 98%
KAND HIGH 100% HIGH 100% HIGH 97% HIGH 94%

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP/AVIATION_TABLES

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...ARK/NED
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...HG
AVIATION...ARK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

257 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION
WITH HOT AND HUMID WEATHER ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. VERY ISOLATED
CONVECTION OCCURRING MAINLY ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE MIDSOUTH ATTM.
TEMPS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND
105 DEGREES ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AND 100-105
DEGREES OVER THE EAST HALF.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A FEW POP UP THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER
JUDGING BY RADAR TRENDS AND THE LATEST HRRR. ANOTHER VERY WARM
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 70S BY MORNING. A 594 DM UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ON TUESDAY AND BE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
MIDSOUTH. LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL STAY NE
OF THE MIDSOUTH ON TUESDAY. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S...WILL EXPAND THE HEAT ADVISORY
TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE MID SOUTH BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE VERY WARM WITH LOWS IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL START TO WEAKEN
AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. TEMPS WILL STILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS WILL PROBABLY POOL AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. AT THE VERY LEAST HEAT ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED AND A EXCESSIVE HEAT WARMING MAY BE NEEDED AS
HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD TOP 110 DEGREES. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DISPLAY VERY LITTLE QPF WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH. SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS WILL SUFFICE FOR NOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
FRONT THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL DROP BACK TO AROUND 90 THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. TEMPS WILL START
TO CLIMB DURING THE WEEKEND BUT HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN
REASONABLE.

SJM

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION AT MKL DUE TO FOG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LEAVING VCTS IN JBR FROM 20Z-02Z FOR
POTENTIAL AS SHOWN ON HRRR MODEL.

BELLES

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
YALOBUSHA.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON
MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LEE MS-MONROE-PONTOTOC-
PRENTISS-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-UNION.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR BENTON TN-
CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-WEAKLEY.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1259 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1111 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPS ALREADY 93F
AT KMEM AT 11 AM CDT. HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG AND
WEST OF A DYERSBURG TN TO OXFORD MS LINE INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS
METRO FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 DEGREES. THE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS SRN IL EARLIER THIS MORNING
FELL APART AS IT MOVED INTO WRN KY. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED
WITH THAT ACTIVITY DID PUSH SOUTH INTO HENRY COUNTY AND THAT COULD
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY THIS AFTN. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SHOW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER THIS AFTERNOON SO THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A JONESBORO TO JACKSON LINE
LOOKS GOOD. FORECAST ON TRACK.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

JCL

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WITH EXCEPTION AT MKL DUE TO FOG WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. LEAVING VCTS IN JBR FROM 20Z-02Z FOR
POTENTIAL AS SHOWN ON HRRR MODEL.

BELLES

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS MEMPHIS TN

1111 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL INCREASE AND EXPAND OVER THE MIDSOUTH FROM
THE WEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

TVT

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
LAFAYETTE-MARSHALL-PANOLA-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR DYER-FAYETTE-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-SHELBY-TIPTON.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS NASHVILLE TN

1107 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS EARLIER CONVECTION NEAR PAH HAS
DISSIPATED. 12Z OHX SOUNDING SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE BELOW 600
MB...AND EXPECTED WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ON THE PLATEAU WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY WEST OF
THERE PER LATEST HRRR RUNS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD ACROSS
NORTHWEST ZONES AND TWEAKED GRIDS/ZONES BASED ON LATEST OBS.

SHAMBURGER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAF`S...BNA/CKV/CSV...DENSE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS ARE STARTING OFF AT CKV, AND EXPECT TO GO VFR BY 14Z. CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION CURRENTLY AFFECTING EXTREME WRN KY & SRN IL MAY MAKE
IT INTO NW MIDDLE TENNESSEE LATER THIS MORNING, SO AM INCLUDING
VCTS FOR CKV. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED CELLS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON, SO TS A POSSIBILITY AT CSV. ONCE AGAIN
EXPECT RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP BY LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AAAH...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STINGS US AGAIN. THE MCS THAT WAS
UPSTREAM OF US THIS TIME YESTERDAY DECIDED IT HAD JUST ENOUGH STEAM
TO MAKE IT INTO OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES BY MID-MORNING BEFORE DYING
OUT. WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND AND NW FLOW ALOFT STILL OVERHEAD...
GOING TO HEED TO THE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND INCREASE POPS FOR MID-STATE COUNTIES WEST
OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR LATER THIS MORNING. NOT REAL CONCERNED ABOUT
SEVERE WEATHER BECAUSE OF THE UPPER RIDGING THAT IS TRYING TO PUSH
IN FROM THE WEST...BUT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AT
TIMES WITH SMALL HAIL AND/OR GUSTY WINDS. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE
FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU WITH THE BETTER RAIN
CHANCES EAST OF I-65. SAME STORY REGARDING STRENGTH.

A SIMILAR CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE BETTER LATE-MORNING CHANCES PUSHING A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST EACH DAY DUE TO THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST.

THAT UPPER RIDGE IS ALSO GOING TO WARM THINGS UP FOR THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK. MANY MOS GUIDANCE VALUES ARE STILL SUGGESTING 95-97 BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT I`M STILL NOT BUYING THESE VALUES. CLOUD
COVER WILL BE PLENTIFUL EACH AFTERNOON AND WITH THE FACT THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS DOESN`T GET DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BEFORE FLATTENING OUT
WEDNESDAY...I`M STILL GOING TO RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREE BELOW THESE
MOS VALUES. THAT ISN`T TO SAY IT ISN`T GOING TO BE HOT AND STEAMY
THROUGH MID-WEEK. IT IS. HEAT INDICIES OF 100-105 ARE GOING TO BE
PREVALENT BECAUSE OF LOW 70S DEW POINTS AND ANY INCREASE TOWARDS
THOSE 95-97 DEGREE READINGS WILL PUSH US INTO HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR NOW...WILL COVER ELEVATED HEAT INDICIES WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND MONITOR FOR THE NEED OF AN ADVISORY
EACH DAY. UNFORTUNATELY THERE WON`T BE MUCH RELIEF IN THE WAY OF
OVERNIGHT LOWS. MANY SPOTS WON`T FALL PAST THE MID-70S TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY MORNINGS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE PLATEAU.

BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING MODELS ARE STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE
PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE ONLY THING THIS FRONT WILL DO
IS ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP. NOT CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE AS THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THIS
SYSTEM IS WELL OFF INTO EASTERN CANADA. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND STILL LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
BACK TOWARDS NORMAL VALUES.

UNGER

AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

UPPER HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER TX THIS TAF PD. WEAK NW FLOW
WILL RESULT ACROSS OUR AREA WITH NO FRONTAL PASSAGES EXPECTED.
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...ISOL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR ALONG THE PLATEAU
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z. OTW...PATCHY FOG AGAIN EXPECTED TOWARD 12Z
FOR ALL THE TAF SITES.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE 93 74 94 75 / 20 10 20 20
CLARKSVILLE 91 72 92 73 / 20 10 20 20
CROSSVILLE 87 70 87 70 / 30 20 30 30
COLUMBIA 94 73 94 73 / 20 0 20 20
LAWRENCEBURG 93 72 94 73 / 10 10 20 20
WAVERLY 92 73 93 74 / 20 10 20 20

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS SAN ANGELO TX

322 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tuesday)

A cumulus field was developing east of a Sweetwater to Junction
line early this afternoon. The HRRR model develops isolated
showers and thunderstorms in the Big Country this afternoon/early
evening, while the Texas Tech WRF model has a few storms along the
I-10 corridor. Expanded coverage of isolated showers and
thunderstorms to include the Big Country counties this
afternoon/evening, with storms ending by sunset.

Models have a slight cooling by a degree or two Tuesday as the
center of upper high pressure moves north into Oklahoma.
Unfortunately this still means highs in the upper 90s to around
102, with the warmest readings in the Concho Valley.

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Monday)

Hot and dry conditions are anticipated across West Central Texas
for much of the work-week as the subtropical ridge remains
entrenched over the southern plains. Temperatures are expected to
moderate slightly through Thursday as mid-level temperatures
gradually drop by 1-2C. This will put max temperatures at or below
100 degrees by midweek, with overnight lows remaining in the mid
70s. We should see an afternoon cu field each afternoon, but large
scale subsidence should preclude convective initiation. Heat
indices are expected to remain below 105 degrees, precluding the
need for a Heat Advisory.

The mid/upper-level anticyclone is progged to build toward the
west late this week, eventually centering over the Four Corners
area this weekend. As the ridge builds west, the flow aloft will
become northwesterly, opening the door for weak shortwave troughs
to move across the region. A slug of enhanced moisture will move
west across the Lone Star state late in the week and is forecast
to increase precipitable water values to near 1.7" over the
southeast portion of the CWA on Friday. With temperatures
approaching 100 degrees, the cap is expected to break, allowing a
few diurnal showers and thunderstorms to develop. Slight chance
PoPs were added for areas east of a line from Sonora, to Ballinger
to Throckmorton.

This moisture will hang around through Saturday, where slight
chance PoPs continue areawide. The ridge builds back east on
Sunday, with hot and dry weather returning to the CWA. Expect
temperatures near or back above 100 degrees across much of the
area by Sunday.

Johnson

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 76 98 76 98 76 / 10 5 0 5 0
San Angelo 75 102 76 101 75 / 10 5 0 5 0
Junction 74 100 75 98 73 / 10 5 0 0 0

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

04/25

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX

1213 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION DISCUSSION...FOR 18Z TAF PACKAGE...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE SHOWS DECREASING MVFR DECK OVER THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND SOME SCATTERED VFR CUMULUS OCCURRING EAST OF THE
I35 CORRIDOR MAINLY. DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE AN INCREASE IN THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVERAGE BUT NOT EXPECTING
A CATEGORY CHANGE AS CLOUD HEIGHTS SHOULD BE ABOVE 3KFT.

OVERNIGHT PATTERN LOOKS TO BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS
WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AROUND THE 08-09Z TIME FRAME FOR
KAUS/KSAT/KSSF AND IMPROVING BY MID MORNING AGAIN. KDRT MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF 1500FT CIGS BUT LEFT AS SCATTERED FOR THIS FORECAST.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE FORECAST. CLOUD COVER IS STILL
PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPERATURES ARE
RUNNING 1-4 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. TEMPS SHOULD
RAPIDLY WARM THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 100-102
DEGREE RANGE OUT THERE WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 108-110. ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY GRIDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DRT WILL BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 76 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 75 98 73 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 73 96 73 98 75 / - 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 78 100 78 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 75 98 76 / - 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 73 98 72 / 0 0 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 75 97 73 98 74 / 0 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 76 97 75 98 75 / - 10 0 - 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 76 98 75 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 76 98 75 99 74 / 0 - 0 0 0

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...TB3
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS BLACKSBURG VA

131 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 100 PM EDT MONDAY...

A WEAK FRONT BOUNDARY HAS WASHED-OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY.
THIS BOUNDARY STILL SHOWING SOME CONVERGENCE TO INDUCE SHOWERS. THE
MAIN CULPRIT FOR PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY TODAY STEMS FROM AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORT WAVES ON THE OUTER RINGS
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OVER THE REGION THROUGH
TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND DEBRIS CLOUDS CAME IN EARLY THIS
MORNING...LIMITING THE AREA FROM BECOMING TO UNSTABLE. THEREFORE THE
SHOWERS COMING ACROSS THE REGION TODAY MAY NOT BECOME TO STRONG.
HOWEVER...PWATS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF. A FEW
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL MAKERS AND
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREA.

BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT
THE AREA WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SUN TODAY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE WE WILL KNOCK BACK TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY SOUTHEAST
WEST VIRGINIA

AS OF 940 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS OF 750 AM EDT MONDAY...

AS OF 400 AM EDT MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 415 AM EDT MONDAY...

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT MONDAY...

MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL DURING THIS
PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS DROP. WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND 80S ELSEWHERE...WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE
60S.

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM EDT MONDAY...

AREAS OF RAIN THIS MORNING IS BECOMING MORE CELLULAR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. WE WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN THUNDER/LIGHTNING
WITHIN SCATTERED STORMS MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.
CLOUDS SHOWING BREAKS ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND WITH BOUNDARIES ACROSS
THE EAST...LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WILL MAINTAIN
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES AND WITH SPOTTY NATURE OF STORMS...WILL
ONLY HAVE VICINITY SHOWERS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
ALONG WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG.

EXTENDED AVIATION FORECAST...

MODELS APPEAR IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WORKWEEK OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON/
EVENING...AND LOCALIZED FOG/STRATUS EARLY EACH MORNING. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THURSDAY AS A NEW COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA AND ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI-SAT.

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

$$
SYNOPSIS...RAB
NEAR TERM...MBS/RCS
SHORT TERM...RAB
LONG TERM...RAB/WP
AVIATION...RCS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NWS CHEYENNE WY

1131 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXTREME RED FLAG CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF THE LARAMIE RANGE. FUELS IN
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 306 (UPPER NORTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN) HAVE BECOME
CRITICAL AND THIS ZONE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE RED FLAG WARNING.
RH VALUES AND WINDS IN ZONE 310 WILL BE MORE MARGINAL NEAR THE SFC
TROUGH...HOWEVER WILL KEEP THEM IN THE WARNING. THE THREAT FOR A
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SVR STORM IS STILL MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE
FAR EASTERN ZONES WHERE THE RUC SHOWS CAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1250
J/KG BY LATE AFTN.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 145 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONE MORE HOT DAY FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
TODAY...THEN COOLER READINGS FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE VERY WARM AIR TODAY. IN FACT
WIND SPEEDS WILL APPROACH HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA ACROSS MUCH
OF CARBON COUNTY AND INTO WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR GREATER. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL PRODUCE VERY LOW HUMIDITY
VALUES...AND WITH THAT COMES AN EXTREME RISK FOR RAPIDLY SPREADING
WILDFIRE. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING DUE TO THESE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS.

SWITCHING FROM FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST WYOMING TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INTO THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HOT AND HUMID
AIR INTO THE PANHANDLE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACTUALLY DEVELOP BUT A PUNCH OF DRY AIR AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL LIKELY BE THE TRIGGER
WHICH SETS OFF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
ANYWHERE FROM ALONG THE NEBRASKA/WYOMING BORDER TO JUST EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE
A DEVELOPING DRY LINE/STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE OCCURS.
BEST GUESS AT THIS TIME IS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE A
HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF QUICKLY BECOMING SEVERE. 00Z NAM SHOWING
UPWARDS OF 4000J/KG SB CAPE AT 21Z TODAY FROM AROUND CHADRON TO
SIDNEY. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE THEN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL QUICKLY
MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY EVENING.

COOLER DRIER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
WILL BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S ACROSS THE
PLAINS WITH 70S INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING
OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. TUESDAY WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS IN PLACE.
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN PLACE WEDNESDAY AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE CENTER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL
RETROGRADE WEST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS BY THIS WEEKEND. THIS
PATTERN WILL SUPPORT A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. THE EXCEPTIONS
MAY BE ISOLATED TSTORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ZONES LATE THURSDAY
WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WY
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
OROGRAPHIC LIFT. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL WITH A WEAK SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SLIGHT ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS.

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1107 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS SHOWING THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVING THROUGH IDAHO. MEANWHILE...THE DRY SLOT WAS STARTING TO
PUSH INTO WESTERN COLORADO. THE SURFACE TROF WAS SITUATED ALONG
THE LEE SIDE OF THE LARAMIE RANGE WITH THE BULK OF THE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS EAST IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROF
PUSHES EAST TODAY...THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE SURFACE TROF LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES HAVE A PRETTY GOOD SHOT OF SEEING
SOME OF THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
THROUGH THE WYOMING TAF SITES EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE 03Z WHILE
THE NEBRASKA TAF SITES SHOULD SEE THIS WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
BETWEEN 03Z- 06Z. GUSTY WINDS UP 50 MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE AFTER
THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
WYOMING WHERE GRASSES AND OTHER QUICK TO DRY VEGETATION IS SUPPORTIVE
OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL COMBINE WITH VERY LOW HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE EXTREME FIRE
CONDITIONS TODAY...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF CARBON COUNTY AND
FAR WESTERN CONVERSE COUNTY WHERE WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY BUT
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL MAKE FOR
MARGINAL FIRE CONDITIONS.

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ301-302-304-
306-310.

NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...ZF
SHORT TERM...SML
LONG TERM...MAJ
AVIATION...REC
FIRE WEATHER...SML/MAJ